Determinants Of Turkey Current Account Deficit: An Econometric Analysis

Determinants Of Turkey Current Account Deficit: An Econometric Analysis

M. Metin Dam, Metin Dam

The main causes of the current account deficit in Turkey; the foreign trade deficit, the high ratio of intermediate goods imports, high oil prices and Turkey's energy import dependence, lack of domestic savings, foreign direct investment and low tourism revenues. In this study, the causes of the current account deficit and current account deficit financing structure were examined. In addition, the determinanats of Turkey current account deficit wereanalyzed via VAR methods using the data of 2002-2011 monthly current account deficit, net export, interest on external debt, transfer payments and costs of tourism. As a result of the study, According to variance discrimination results obtained from VAR model composed under this roof, current account deficit is determined by its own shocks in the short term. In addition, current account deficit prediction error variance is determined by tourism expenditures and foreign debt interest rate as well as its own variables. Current account deficit is affected by export, foreign debt interest rate, transfer payments and shock given to tourism expenditures. Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Determinants, VAR, Turkey

Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed

2012-05-31

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