55 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/34cc342e5233d7a30847be1b8a82b2da.docx 72e396a730de118408a9e71e21f83c74 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d90eb69a021af7b73432a02e5b1c5305.pdf ef813f506434d52a8e51d6cbd98d03d0 PDF Text Text CEYHUN ATUF KANSU ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA Zeliha TUĞUZ Mersin Üniversitesi, Türk Dili Ve Edebiyatı, Mersin / Türkiye Anahtar Kelimeler: Ceyhun Atuf Kansu, Kansu’nun şiirleri, nesirleri. ÖZET Bu çalışmada Ceyhun Atuf Kansu’nun hayatı, edebi şahsiyeti, eserleri ve Türk Edebiyatına katkısı incelenmiştir. Ceyhun Atuf Kansu’nun gerek kişiliği gerekse edebi yönü hakkında pek fazla çalışma yapılmamıştır. Bu sebeple Kansu’nun eserlerinden yola çıkılarak onun kişiliği, edebi anlayışı, eserlerindeki konular gün yüzüne çıkarılmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışma üç bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölümde kısaca Kansu’nun hayatı anlatılmıştır. İkinci bölümde edebi şahsiyeti, edebiyata, şiire bakış açısı incelenmiştir. Kansu’ya göre aydının, şairin nasıl olması gerektiği konusu üzerinde durulmuştur. Üçüncü bölümde de eserleri iki başlık altında incelenmiştir. Çalışma henüz düşünce aşamasındayken Kansu’nun sadece nesirlerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştı; fakat kelimenin tam anlamıyla bir ozan olan Kansu’nun nesirlerini şiirlerinden, şiirlerini nesirlerinden ayırmak imkânsız olduğundan ilk bölümde nesirleri, ikinci bölümde şiirleri incelenmiştir. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2317 Title A name given to the resource CEYHUN ATUF KANSU ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA Author Author TUĞUZ, Zeliha Abstract A summary of the resource. Anahtar Kelimeler: Ceyhun Atuf Kansu, Kansu’nun şiirleri, nesirleri. ÖZET Bu çalışmada Ceyhun Atuf Kansu’nun hayatı, edebi şahsiyeti, eserleri ve Türk Edebiyatına katkısı incelenmiştir. Ceyhun Atuf Kansu’nun gerek kişiliği gerekse edebi yönü hakkında pek fazla çalışma yapılmamıştır. Bu sebeple Kansu’nun eserlerinden yola çıkılarak onun kişiliği, edebi anlayışı, eserlerindeki konular gün yüzüne çıkarılmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışma üç bölümden oluşmaktadır. Birinci bölümde kısaca Kansu’nun hayatı anlatılmıştır. İkinci bölümde edebi şahsiyeti, edebiyata, şiire bakış açısı incelenmiştir. Kansu’ya göre aydının, şairin nasıl olması gerektiği konusu üzerinde durulmuştur. Üçüncü bölümde de eserleri iki başlık altında incelenmiştir. Çalışma henüz düşünce aşamasındayken Kansu’nun sadece nesirlerinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştı; fakat kelimenin tam anlamıyla bir ozan olan Kansu’nun nesirlerini şiirlerinden, şiirlerini nesirlerinden ayırmak imkânsız olduğundan ilk bölümde nesirleri, ikinci bölümde şiirleri incelenmiştir. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-17 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2203-4548 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/744a9bedf566ad507bb7554ea4a59637.docx c5d5e46452d39155cf527cb7060d992d https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b8513a2b2f837c094389a5e023279ba0.pdf e6d44b9621ba95262598d0d5c5895823 PDF Text Text Challenges of Economic Reforms in Ukrainian Society with Reference to Russia ErindElmazaj Epoka University Albania eelmazaj@epoka.edu.al SalihOzcan Epoka University Albania sozcan@epoka.edu.al Abstract: This paper explores the economic reforms undertaken by Ukraine and their impact on the Ukrainian civil society. How Ukraine managed its economy after the epochal change of the USSR disintegration, the repercussions it had on society and what influence have EU on one side and Russia on the other, in a big country always contended between West and East should be very interesting questions to point out by taking as reference Russia. Quantitative research will be applied in this work. Data will be collected through the related books, papers, periodicals and different articles as well as statistical data from the official documents. Furthermore, recent events and current political situation will also be evaluated using the most recent sources of the newspapers and internet. The first part of the paper is devoted to a description of the reforms towards the economic capitalist system of Ukraine, its legacies from the centrally planned economy of USSR and the reforms in agriculture as a vital sector of Ukraine’s economy. The second part portrays how society was reshaped with the advent of capitalism, the increased economic inequalities, unemployment and the brain drain phenomenon. The third part concerns Ukraine’s place in the global economy and its role and engagement in the International Organizations. Finally, this paper endeavors to evaluate the very delicate situation of Ukraine and its dilemma’s between strong supporters of European Integration in the occidental part and those of further economic and political integration into the East Bloc led by Russia in the oriental part. Keywords: Ukraine, Economic Reforms, Society, Russia, EU Integration 35 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2465 Title A name given to the resource Challenges of Economic Reforms in Ukrainian Society with Reference to Russia Author Author ELMAZAJ, Erind OZCAN, Salih Abstract A summary of the resource. This paper explores the economic reforms undertaken by Ukraine and their impact on the Ukrainian civil society. How Ukraine managed its economy after the epochal change of the USSR disintegration, the repercussions it had on society and what influence have EU on one side and Russia on the other, in a big country always contended between West and East should be very interesting questions to point out by taking as reference Russia. Quantitative research will be applied in this work. Data will be collected through the related books, papers, periodicals and different articles as well as statistical data from the official documents. Furthermore, recent events and current political situation will also be evaluated using the most recent sources of the newspapers and internet. The first part of the paper is devoted to a description of the reforms towards the economic capitalist system of Ukraine, its legacies from the centrally planned economy of USSR and the reforms in agriculture as a vital sector of Ukraine’s economy. The second part portrays how society was reshaped with the advent of capitalism, the increased economic inequalities, unemployment and the brain drain phenomenon. The third part concerns Ukraine’s place in the global economy and its role and engagement in the International Organizations. Finally, this paper endeavors to evaluate the very delicate situation of Ukraine and its dilemma’s between strong supporters of European Integration in the occidental part and those of further economic and political integration into the East Bloc led by Russia in the oriental part. Keywords: Ukraine, Economic Reforms, Society, Russia, EU Integration Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-04-24 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8645893bacf81d5093aceb7490e099a2.docx e7d826521431d2e23b7bb2c6626049c4 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c36930c837e195e92e3efb0c4135ce2c.pdf d153533b99969472de2e554a796ca144 PDF Text Text Challenges of Waste Management in the South East Albania, Korça Region MarselaSalavaçi Epoka University Albania msalavaci@epoka.edu.al SalihOzcan Epoka University Albania sozcan@epoka.edu.al Abstract: Waste management process is the collection, transportation and processing of waste materials. Generally waste management is done by local government institutions and it needs cooperation between these institutions and the entire population. Waste management is a challenge for local governments due to increasing amount of waste, lack of the budget because of the lower taxes collected from the local inhabitants for the service of waste management, and lack of cooperation with the population. People are not yet aware of the damage they cause to the environment, to their quality of life and to the next generations. The aim of this paper is to analyze the current situation of waste management in the south east of Albania in the Korça region. This region has 33 local government units (municipalities and communes) of which 28 have jointly established a company called Korça Regional Waste Management (KRWM). This cooperation between local governments is the first example of its kind in Albania. The financial aid for this cooperation which includes the collection of waste, transportation to the landfill, waste processing and building the landfill is financed by the KreditanstaltfürWiederaufbau (KfW) bank in Germany. As a methodology this paper will analyze the primary data taken from this corporation. The results of the questionnaire used by this corporation will demonstrate the waste management methods done by each of these municipalities and communes until now and what are their expectations for the future work need to be done by KRWM. Furthermore, an interview with the administrator of this company is also planned.As a first successful pilot project in Korça region, this new way of cooperation between local governments should also be followed by the other regions of Albania. Keywords: Waste management, Korca Region, KRWM, Albania, KfW 34 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2464 Title A name given to the resource Challenges of Waste Management in the South East Albania, Korça Region Author Author SALAVAÇI, Marsela OZCAN, Salih Abstract A summary of the resource. Waste management process is the collection, transportation and processing of waste materials. Generally waste management is done by local government institutions and it needs cooperation between these institutions and the entire population. Waste management is a challenge for local governments due to increasing amount of waste, lack of the budget because of the lower taxes collected from the local inhabitants for the service of waste management, and lack of cooperation with the population. People are not yet aware of the damage they cause to the environment, to their quality of life and to the next generations. The aim of this paper is to analyze the current situation of waste management in the south east of Albania in the Korça region. This region has 33 local government units (municipalities and communes) of which 28 have jointly established a company called Korça Regional Waste Management (KRWM). This cooperation between local governments is the first example of its kind in Albania. The financial aid for this cooperation which includes the collection of waste, transportation to the landfill, waste processing and building the landfill is financed by the KreditanstaltfürWiederaufbau (KfW) bank in Germany. As a methodology this paper will analyze the primary data taken from this corporation. The results of the questionnaire used by this corporation will demonstrate the waste management methods done by each of these municipalities and communes until now and what are their expectations for the future work need to be done by KRWM. Furthermore, an interview with the administrator of this company is also planned.As a first successful pilot project in Korça region, this new way of cooperation between local governments should also be followed by the other regions of Albania. Keywords: Waste management, Korca Region, KRWM, Albania, KfW Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-04-24 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 H Social Sciences (General) Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1018 Title A name given to the resource Challenging the Claim that bi-Modal Input Improves Listening Comprehension Author Author Juma Charles, Tendai Abstract A summary of the resource. Research investigating the effects of bi-modal input [the simultaneous presentation of orthographic and aural information] on L2 listening comprehension claims: (a) that watching interlingual subtitled audiovisual (AV) material [L2 audio with L1 text] results in better L2 listening comprehension than non-subtitled AV material (Bird and Williams, 2002); (b) that watching intralingual subtitled AV material [L2 audio with L2 text] results in better L2 listening comprehension than interlingual subtitled AV material (Markham et al., 2001); and (c) that watching any form of subtitled AV material enhances L2 listening comprehension (Vanderplank, 1988). I would argue that most published research in this area lacks ‘test construct validity’; they either fail to accurately test listening comprehension appropriately, or the duration of their experiments are so short that any claims of long-term improvements to an individual’s listening ability must be investigated further. I propose an innovative approach to testing the claim that bi-modal input enhances listening comprehension, by specifically investigating its possible long-term effects. The process of developing this test includes a pre-pilot study (completed), a pilot study (currently in progress), and a main study (to be started). In this paper, I present the findings of my pre-pilot study, in which I investigated the ability of 11 participants to listen to audio excerpts spoken in a standard British RP accent from six different types of AV materials [documentary, film, lecture, news report, sitcom, stand-up comedy], through the use of a listening test. I then test another 11 participants on their ability to listen to audio excerpts spoken in an RP accent from one specific AV medium [documentary]. My findings suggest that for the sample tested [international university students in the UK] BBC documentaries may be the most appropriate form of AV material to be used during the pilot study as it was the one form which was understood by all participants to a reasonable level. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/319eda428bb336b29ea308f9093f11aa.pdf e7e93966c7167be46b9e704b7ffabf27 PDF Text Text 2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Changing Educational Comprehension, Assessment of the Transition Process from Library to Internet and Turkey as A Specimen Res. Asst. Neslihan KARAKUŞ Marmara University, Atatürk Education Faculty Istanbul, Turkey neslihanoksuz61@gmail.com Res. Asst. Nurgül KARAYAZI International Burch University, Education Faculty nurgulkarayazi@gmail.com Abstract: There are different ways to acquire knowledge in the present educational system. This system aims to improve student’s research abilities, and is not concerned on the place where the knowledge is acquired, but the way it is acquired. This present educational system is basically centered in instructing the student in the class and telling him to make some researches on the topics given instead of just teaching that actually requires student’s passive learning. This method has brought the lack of library use. With the student centered active learning that gives strong emphasis on research it was expected that libraries would win back its former sign finance. Never the less this time libraries face another threat: internet. In this research we will examine the extent changes in and change of research process. While libraries became out of fashion day by day, we will assess how internet preferred for efficiency could affect using public survey we will try to reach changes in acquiring knowledge and changing roles of teacher\instructor and student in the context of educational institutions. Keywords: Education, Turkish education, book, teacher, library, internet. Introduction The child who, due to various reasons, has to survive in a small environment, will be probably learned everything about that environment in a certain period of time due to the environmental limitations. Whereas world of the kid possess some other worlds as well. There are billions of people living on the earth which s/he does not familiar with, so many other living creatures that s/he does not know and various fellow beings who present personal characteristics dissimilar to the ones around, wait him/her somewhere. The child will get to know much more things throughout the life and this information will not be given by the environment s/he exists but by the books s/he will read. “Children books are the sources which exemplify the answers to the problems occur lifetime and reactions to them with the artist point of view. This source makes them perceive that people may have different attributes and introduce distinctive types of life and human relations. It expands the life circle and makes them meet numerous feeling and idea models.” (Sever, 2007: 47). So with such reasons if the child manages to transform a reading action to a habit, s/he; enlarges existing life area, starts get the know himself/herself, can distinguish similarities and differences between him/her and the other people. The child, who has the tendency of being shaped, may build equality between himself/herself and the character of the book s/he reads. S/He may consider the feelings, ideas and behavior for certain events of some characters as if him/her and conclude common inferences. Thus when s/he adopts various sides of all imitated characters, such an individual comes out who also constitutes contradictions inside, tries to know and become himself/herself and presents in the evolution stage. In the course of time, child forms the personality when s/he gets over all of those differences and attains the required maturity. Actions of those characters which conforms children’s reality and supports their entrepreneurship, make way for similar reactions and behavior models on children. So this process gives the possibility to access a group of important phase for the personality development such as making them to know themselves, to believe that they are important and to respect others. Sever (2007: 49) shares same ideas on this subject: It says, “Children books are the tools which have important effects on children’s personality development. This effects which starts from the very beginning of childhood period, continue till the end of primary education. The most decisive factor for those effects to be appropriate for the purpose is to support and unite children with books suitable for personal characters of children.” 445 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Problematic Situation In the existing era of information and technology, shared method of the outstanding education approaches, instead of changing learner’s behavior, provide the opportunity to control their behavior by using the way of perceiving and modeling. There is a probability instead of order; preference instead of obligation. Day by day renovation of technology which forces human intelligence obligates society to lots of modifications and people to innovation. This obligation does not cause a gap between 50 years before and today but 5 years before and today. So it would be wrong to expect the books not to change which read by children who, together with the mentioned wind of change, face a change in everything including their interest areas, expectations from the life, school life, textbooks, models, aims, food and drinks they have, and cultural structure of the their society. In this manner, world children classics such as Heidi, Pollyanna, Pinocchio, Gulliver’s Travels, From the Earth to the Moon, are chosen less compared to past. It is possible to explain this reason with the decrease of the events in those books that can reach with the children’s imagination. Because trip to moon is not a fantasy for them anymore, Pinocchio is an ordinary hero whose nose is getting longer when he lies, Gulliver is a traveler who runs into strange people in a world many different nations live in, Heidi and Pollyanna are the girls who walk around countryside, graze lambs in a village life, pick up flowers from the garden of their house, eating fruit, climbing trees, so they are extremely opposed to nowadays children. Books children read is not only thing that have been changing. Places where they read those books and resources that they refer to get information about the book are also share a portion from this change pie. “Libraries lose their former importance and have been replaced by Internet libraries” is the opinion that composes problem question of this research. Research Objective This study gives point to the dimensions of changing process of research. An identification to the situation concerning the internet which is very widely used since it serves ease of research possibilities and saves lots of time and the way it wrapped the world of children and youth and where libraries has lost their old popularity. Libraries are not the only one that has changed the role and lost their former importance. Concretizing the dimensions of this change which is valid for school and teachers as well by using a small survey study and by doing so reaching quantitative data, take part in the objective of this research. Constraints 1. 2. Research is limited with; fifty three students in 6th grade from the second stage of primary education in Turkey and, Two primary schools in Istanbul which are depended on Ministry of Education. Methodology Combing research methodology is used in this study. Combing research; measures many variables and lots of answers given to same questions, checks more than one hypothesis out, makes chronological conclusions about the behaviors, experiences or characteristics of the past. (Neuman, 2006: 400) Within the framework of this methodology a survey made among the certain students in determined primary schools and answers of the survey are commentated with the help of SPSS software. Collecting the Data In this research, original data is acquired with combing document method and document analysis together with collecting the surveys carried out to students. “Combing document is defined as collecting data by analyzing existing records and documents. Addressed to certain purpose, combing document contains the process of taking notes, finding and reading sources.” (Karasar, 2000: 183). “Document study contains analysis of the written materials which includes information about the finding or findings of research area.” (Yıldırım ve Şimşek, 1999: 140). Data, acquired by the survey study, is construed. 446 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Universe of Researches and Exemplification According to Karasar(2000) there are two universes. One of them is general universe and the other one is working universe. General universe is the completion of the units of research conclusions that are to be generalized. So any object, fact, event and all of the individuals exist in the scope of any research is defined as universe. (Yazıcıoğlu ve Erdoğan, 2004: 31). Working universe of the researcher is composed of a set which is selected from universe according to certain rules and of which researcher study on it. So exemplification is a set that is studied and has an ability to represent the universe. The working universe of this study is determined according to purposive modeling which is one of the beside-probability modeling types. In purposive modeling which is also called as judgment modeling, researcher uses his/her decision on who will be selected and takes who are most appropriate for the purpose of the research into exemplification set (Balcı, 2005:90). So in purposive exemplification; exemplification set is selected by separating the units representing characteristics of which information is purposed to get inside of the main mass. In this manner 6th grade students refer to universe and 53 students from the 6th grades refer to the sample of this research. Findings and Comments Tables are generated according to the information acquired from the survey carried out to the 6th grade students from two primary schools in Istanbul. There are 14 questions in total. The scope of the questions contain what kind of books that students read, with which frequency they read, whether they are encouraged to read or not, from where they buy the books, whether they go to library or not, if not why is it so etc. Answers to the questions are not so different than the expectations. There are some precautions that should be taken before it is late and it shows some new executions may be done. Questions are as follows; %79 of the students state that they like reading. %11 percent of them says that they do not; while %10 of them who are hesitant can be counted in the dislike group. So it is possible to conclude that %21 of the students do not read with enthusiasm. It is quite pleasing that this portion is not very high. 447 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Autobiography Memoir Diary Letter Novel Poetry Story Joke(humorous) Joke(Article) Tale Trip writing Causerie Criticism Article Comic strip Students are asked to choose which genre of the book that they mostly like. It is seen that novel is the most read one. Humorous jokes come after novel. Story and comic strip follows it. Minimal interest goes to criticism, essay, article and trip writing. If it is put in order novel %17; humorous jokes %12; story, comic strip %11; newspaper text, tale, memoir %7; dairy %5; poetry, causerie, letter, autobiography %4; article, trip writing %2; criticism, essay %2. The values are quite engrossing for 6th grade students, 12 years-old group who are in the progress of a rapid development. Genres which would contribute for them in an educational and instructional level are the least interested ones. 6th grade students have not passed to grown-up position yet and this might have been an important factor for this result. The table appears in this question is an expected table for the 6th grade students. It is very natural that they have tendency to adventure books. Since survey does not ask gender of the student, it is not possible to conclude which gender has more tendencies on which genres. However researches indicate that; generally girls in those ages choose emotional and romantic books while boys use their choice on adventure books (Yalçın; Aytaş, 2002). � Girls are interested in works with dependence and self-sacrifice theme, books and magazines which posses an artistic value while boys prefer works based on abstract and emotional thoughts, actual events in the newspaper and sports articles. 448 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo � Tendency to opposite sex and interest to art works increase in this period where gender distinction is strictly set down. � They start interested in researches and research articles about sport, entertainment, science and nature � They like novels, movies and stories which contains secrecy. They see themselves in the books they read. There are %19 portion of the students who are considered as guided by their teachers at school. If we add students who are not sure into this value, it makes %42 and which cannot be considered as insufficient. Teachers, where new curriculum gives more weight to reading in comparison the previous curriculums, are seen as unsuccessful. Although it is pleasing that the percentage of students who thinks that reading is useful is %87, portion of the not-sure students with %13, should not be ignored. 449 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Portion who says I buy to read book has more weight. %68 of the students chooses buying while %32 of them prefers borrowing. This percentage confirms the 12th question of the survey which concludes that the portion of the borrowing from library. %44 of the student stated that they are not interested in newly issued books. One of the reasons for that would be the campaign of Ministry of Education in which 100 classics are purposed to be read by students. This case is due to the fact that recommended books have the priority in comparison to newly issued ones. %47 of the students does not think that they are influenced by something in their book selection. Getting influenced by something is expected condition for the students in this age group whereas it is seen that a high percentage think that they are not influenced by something. 450 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Students who state that they are affected in book selection accept that they are influenced mostly by their friends. It is an engrossing result that teacher’s effect is only %13 while “Best Seller” list which is not created with objective approach is %20. The purpose of this question is to identify which sources students refer when they study. The outcome is expected and should be carefully evaluated. Percentage of the students who do not go to library is %48 and percentage of the ones who go is %35. The outcome for the reason of the students who go and who do not is more interesting. 451 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo %40 of the students goes to read, %26 of them to make a research, %21 goes to borrow a book and %13 of them goes to do something else. Among the students who goes to library and keeps %35 portion, the percentage of the students who says “rarely” when they are asked how frequent do they go to library is %78. %13 of this portion goes once in a month, %3 once in a week and %6 once in a week? Afterwards students who do not go to library (%48) are asked why they do not and different answers came out. Following table occurs when those answers are grouped; 14. Soru: Could you explain the reason why don’t you go to library? 1. I don’t need it. 2. I make my researches on internet. 3. I read my books at home. 4. It is boring; I have some other things to do. 5. I think the atmosphere there is very boring. 6. I have internet and encyclopedia and internet. 7. There is no library in my neighborhood. 8. My family does not take me there. 9. There is no book I love in library. 10. There something called internet. 11. I cannot give an effort. 12. I have no time. 452 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Findings Results derived from the findings are as follows: 1. Reading is not given required importance. It is seen that the change in education curriculum which is made to encourage students to read more, there is more different results than expectation. The percentage of the students who do not love reading cannot ignorable. For the one who like reading is also another subject that should be given more importance. 2. Teachers cannot create expected positive influence on students. Teachers who should be one of the most effective one on students are very ineffective. 3. The percentage of “friend” influence on book selection is %26. The percentage of Mass media and “best seller” list is %23 in total. Interaction among the adolescent in those ages are very high. Media and communication tools also make contributions to this. So it would not be wrong if we add bigger portion of the friend influence on media. List which is not generated with objective point of view is something real in Turkey. Sometimes, books which perform negative examples of behavior for students, are chosen maybe just because it is on those lists. For instance; reading age of the “twilight” series which is not even recommended for secondary schools is descended to the first stage of the primary education. Those lists which are sometimes generated for commercial purpose should be evaluated carefully and checked before it harms the society. Here, the subject is not “twilight’s” sale success but its possibility of negative contribution to children and teenager with age below 15. 4. It should not be forgotten that this study is carried out on small amount of students and this kind of studies never have %0 defect rate, so there may be some points ignored. Proposal 1. In the existing era of information and technology, shared method of the outstanding education approaches, instead of changing learner’s behavior, provide the opportunity to control their behavior by using the way of perceiving and modeling. There is a probability instead of order; preference instead of obligation. Day by day renovation of technology which forces human intelligence obligates society to lots of modifications and people to innovation. This obligation does not cause a gap between 50 years before and today but 5 years before and today. So it would be wrong to expect the books not to change which read by children who, together with the mentioned wind of change, face a change in everything including their interest areas, expectations from the life, school life, textbooks, models, aims, food and drinks they have, and cultural structure of the their society. However, despite the speed of this change, it is possible to canalize it to the positive direction. Hereby, fathers, mothers and teachers play very important roles. It is also an important factor that living environment canalize student to the same direction as well. Otherwise lack of one of them may transform the positive effect that is generated by the other in to negative direction. 2. It should not be so difficult to make libraries the preferable places for studying, researching and reading. It is so important that libraries and librarians face the transformation while this ideology is being told in schools. Smiling face personnel and friendly staff are the top among the things that has to be done. 3. Libraries should posses various works belong to Turkish and World literature and all books should be presented to everyone. Students who look for an answer should be welcomed and encouraged to ask more questions. 4. Libraries should be transformed into safe places where students can meet after school and families can let their children easily. For instance, cafeterias should welcome readers in some part of the library, internet should be accessed inside the library and promotions should be allowed if it is needed. 5. Changes stated above can make libraries which are now old fashion, a preferable places of the students. It should not be considered as use of internet need to be decreased during the process. Absolutely student should be served sources which are fast and reliable information banks. This can be managed by internet and can be managed by something else as well. Important thing is to contribute into the positive transformation of the library concept in our country. 453 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Bibliography Balcı, A. (2005). Sosyal Bilimlerde Araştırma Yöntem, Teknik ve Đlkeleri. Ankara: Pegem Yayınları. Belet, Dilek. Çiğdem Suna. Đlköğretim Öğrencilerinin Çoklu Zeka Alanları ile Okuma Đlgi ve Alışkanlık Düzeyleri Arasındaki Đlişki. home.anadolu.edu.tr/~sdbelet/yayinlar/zeka_alanlari.pdf. 23.05.2010 Dilidüzgün, S. (2007). Çağdaş Çocuk Yazını. (1. Edition). Đstanbul: Morpa Kültür Yayınları. Dilidüzgün, S. (2004). Đletişim Odaklı Türkçe Derslerinde Çocuk Kitapları. (1. Edition). Đstanbul: Morpa Kültür Yayınları. Ersoy, Ali. Şefik Yaşar, Đlköğretim 4. Ve 5. Sınıf Öğrencilerinin Đnternet Kullanma Durumları. www.tebd.gazi.edu.tr/arsiv/2003_cilt1/sayi_4/401-426.PDF. 23.05.2010 Gander, M. J.; Gardiner H. W. (2007). Çocuk ve Ergen Gelişimi. Ankara: Đmge Kitabevi. Gökşen, E. N. (1985). Örnekleriyle Çocuk Edebiyatımız. (1. Edition). Đstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi. Güleç, H. Ç.; Geçgel, H. (2005). Çocuk Edebiyatı. (1. Edition). Ankara: Kök Yayıncılık. Kaptan, S. (1998). Bilimsel Araştırma ve Đstatistik Teknikleri. (11. edition) Ankara: Tekışık Web Ofset Karasar, N. (2005). Bilimsel Araştırma Yöntemi. (1. Edition). Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım. Karasar, N. (2000). Araştırmalarda Rapor Hazırlama. (10. Edition). Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım. Neuman, W. L. (2008). Toplumsal Araştırma Yöntemleri. (3. Edition). Đstanbul: Yayınodası Yayıncılık. Özbay, Y. (2001). Gelişim ve Öğrenme Psikolojisi. (2. Edition). Trabzon: Erol Ofset. Sever, S. (2007). Çocuk ve Edebiyat. (3. Edition). Ankara: Kök Yayıncılık Tezcan, M. (2002). Postmodern ve Küresel Toplumda Eğitim. (1. Edition). Ankara: Anı Yayıncılık. (Yalçın; Aytaş, 2002: 28) Yalçın, A; Aytaş, G. (2002). Çocuk Edebiyatı. (1. Edition). Ankara: Akçağ Yayınları. Yavuzer, H. (1985). Çocuk Psikolojisi. (2. Edition). Đstanbul: Altın Kitaplar Yayınevi. Yazıcıoğlu, Y. ve Erdoğan, S. (2004). SPSS Uygulamalı Bilimsel Araştırma Yöntemleri. Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık. Yılar, Ö.; Turan, L. (2007). Eğitim Fakülteleri Đçin Çocuk Edebiyatı. (1. Edition). Ankara: Pegem A Yayıncılık. Yıldırım, A; Şimşek, H. (1999). Sosyal Bilimlerde Nitel Araştırma Yöntemleri. (4. Edition) Ankara: Seçkin Yayınevi. 454 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 733 Title A name given to the resource Changing Educational Comprehension, Assessment of the Transition Process from Library to Internet and Turkey as A Specimen Author Author KARAKUS, Neslihan KARAYAZI, Nurgül Abstract A summary of the resource. There are different ways to acquire knowledge in the present educational system. This system aims to improve student’s research abilities, and is not concerned on the place where the knowledge is acquired, but the way it is acquired. This present educational system is basically centered in instructing the student in the class and telling him to make some researches on the topics given instead of just teaching that actually requires student’s passive learning. This method has brought the lack of library use. With the student centered active learning that gives strong emphasis on research it was expected that libraries would win back its former sign finance. Never the less this time libraries face another threat: internet. In this research we will examine the extent changes in and change of research process. While libraries became out of fashion day by day, we will assess how internet preferred for efficiency could affect using public survey we will try to reach changes in acquiring knowledge and changing roles of teacher\instructor and student in the context of educational institutions. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2010-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/223f4a473ef8a0992465a78da1b79281.pdf 506116b283c4b117c81953703a0689fc PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review1 Emin Huseynov Center for Research and Development, The Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Bul 40 str., Baku, Azerbaijan AZ1014 Rustam Jamilov Center for Research and Development, The Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Bul 40 str., Baku, Azerbaijan AZ1014 jamilovrustam@gmail.com ABSTRACT Twenty years have passed since the breakdown of the Soviet Union, and it is time KEYWORDS CIS; Monetary to draw a concluding line for monetary policy efficiency in the Commonwealth of Transmission; VAR; Independent States (CIS). We propose a comprehensive treatment of the subject ARDL Cointegration; for nine members of the CIS for the period of 2000-2009. Four transmission Panel Data Analysis channels are investigated: interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, bank ARTICLE HISTORY lending channel, and monetary channel. First, we design a Vector Auto Submitted:27Jun 2012 Regression framework for each CIS member-state and investigate the short-run Resubmitted:9 July 2012 dynamics of the impact of each of the four transmission channels on domestic Resubmitted: 17 output and inflation. Second, we construct Auto Regressive Distributed Lag September 2012 Models (ARDL) in order to study the country-wise efficiency of transmission Accepted:21 October channels in the long run. Finally, we employ a panel data fixed effects method 2012 to show how the CIS behaves as a region. Our short-run individual country analysis yields highly heterogeneous results. In the long run, however, it’s apparent that broad monetary base (M2) is the most influential determinant of aggregate output. Inflation is affected the most by the refinancing rate and the flow of remittances. For both output and inflation, exchange rate plays a role of a supporting channel. JEL Codes: E4; E52; O53 1 Opinion presented in this paper belongs solely to the authors and does not reflect the views of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 5 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Introduction The Channels of Monetary Transmission: an Overview The proposition that policy interventions can affect macroeconomic behavior has become a leading line of thought among both researchers and practitioners. It is said that policy-makers are able to influence the flow of events in the real economy by targeting specific economic aggregates of interest. They achieve this by calibrating certain policy variables – those over which they have direct power and control. An intervention into the policy variable then, in theory, transmits its innovation into the real economy via a certain channel. While policy interventions and end-of-theday effects on the real economy are largely known and measurable, the dynamic that occurs in the transmission channel is quite challenging to assess and to measure. The channels of monetary transmission are often called a “black box”, suggesting that we know that monetary policy does influence real economic aggregates, but we don’t always know how exactly (Bernanke and Gertler, 1995). Policy makers typically have two major tools for economic control at their disposal: fiscal and monetary policy. Fiscal policy has never been consistenly viewed as a reliable variable for macroeconomic stabilization (Mishra, Montiel, and Spilimbergo, 2010). The fiscal channel often operates slowly, inefficiently, and usually aggrevates situations by acting as a pro-cyclical catalyst of any exogenous shock. It’s not to say that the fiscal arm is completely useless, but fiscal policy must be almost universally accompanied by a credible and congruent stance from the national central bank. In short, much due to the imperfections associated with the fiscal dimension of policy making, monetary policy often takes on the lead role in economic stabilization and control. It has become conventional to believe that monetary policy indeed affects lives of economic agents, although sometimes in an undirect way (Mishkin, 1996). The transmission channels through which monetary policy is conducted are often subtle and complex. While the aim has always been to target a real variable such as aggregate output or employment, the selection of the correct channel of monetary transmission in order to execute the desired plan is often impeded by the structural issues of a given economy’s internal context. The story of the channels of monetary transmission, although without doubt built upon certain fundamental theoretical blocs, is an empirical issue. The workings of each monetary transmission channel 6 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review (and there are several of them) depend on a plethora of factors, ranging from the overall stage of macroeconomic development to the nuances of micro-structures of domestic financial markets (Checetti, 1999). Those factors differ tremendously in different regions and regimes of the world, thus necessisating differentiated and/or regional approaches to the study of monetary transmission channels. Description of the Channels of Monetary Transmission There are at least seven channels of monetary transmission that we can distinguish: interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, bank lending channel, balance sheet channel, asset price channel, monetary channel, and expectation channel. Empirically, it has been proven that the interest rate channel is the most dominant one for the case of developed economies with high-quality financial markets. In general, the interest channel is built on a Keynesian view that monetary policy can affect real costs of borrowing by changing nominal interest rates. Because prices are sticky and require time to adjust, nominal interest rate differentials transform into a corresponding adjustment in the real interest rate, which in turn affects spending and investment decisions in the economy. Contrary to the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel is usually viewed as the most important monetary transmission channel in developing countries (Coricelli, Egert, and MacDonald, 2005). By performing direct interventions into the foreign exchange market, monetary policy makers can achieve a desirable level of the exchange rate. The exchange rate will in turn affect aggregate production via the current account channel, by influencing the costs of imported and exported goods and their relative price-based trade competitiveness. In addition, in countries where domestic agents tend to hold debt denominated in foreign currency (as is the case with most developing nations), exchange rate fluctuations can have a substantial effect on the agents’ debt portoflios and thus their overall balance sheets. Finally, particularly in developing and transmission economies, remittances (finances flowing from abroad) are usually the forgotten factor in the analysis of monetary transmission. In light of the inclusion of remittances into the picture, we believe that the exchange rate can carry an additional significant “wealth effect” on domestic aggregate demand via the flow of the typically dollar-denominated remitance. The bank lending channel functions on the premise that there exists a pool of bank-dependent loan seekers, who wish to obtain funds for various investment Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 7 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV and consumption purposes. Monetary intervention can alter the the amount of bank reserves, thus changing the total amount of money that is available for banks to lend out. The restriction on the total amount of loanable funds in turn affects the potential of aggregate domestic investment and consumption. Of course, this channel operates with a strict assumption that borrowers do not have other sources of funding such as government bonds for bank credit (Walsh, 1998). The balance sheet channel is an extension of the bank lending channel, in which we assume that borrowers, in order to obtain credit funds from the bank, are forced to pay an interest-rate premium over the risk-free rate. That risk premium is based on the borrowers’ own balance sheet composition, such as a portfolio of securities on hand and real estate in possession (Mishkin, 2001). Monetary policy is able to affect the prices on the real estate market and/or the prices of stocks via open-market interventions targeting the interest rate. This way a monetary policy move can affect the borrower’s collateral potential, and thus the overall quantity of credit that banks will be willing to lend out against that collateral. Also, from the point of view of Modigliani’s life cycle hypothesis, monetary policy can affect aggregate domestic consumption through the prism of financial wealth of domestic constituents, which is in turn governed by the interest rate dynamics and arbitrage. The asset price channel, similar in its logical foundations to the balance sheet channel, allows monetary policy makers to affect the total wealth of domestic economic agents. Agents, in turn, are able to adjust their purchasing and saving decisions according to their changing wealth holdings. This idea can be applied to firm-level investment and to the real estate market. The asset price channel matters only if the non-bank financial sector is considerably developed, and if market financing is reasonably important on the macro-scale (Dabla-Norris and Floerkemeier, 2006). The monetary channel is not a traditional inclusion into the discussion on channels of monetary transmission. We found that there was a gap in the classifications of the channels since neither the monetary base nor the domestic wage level are consistently included into the analysis. The former aggregate is usually viewed as an indirect measure of monetary policy. National banks rarely target monetary base as an end goal, but rather tweak money supply in order to achieve the desired break-even interest rate via open-market operations. Still, broad money should be perceived as an indirect predictor of real economy variables, or at least theoretically. Whether this is the case empirically for the CIS region we will discover later in the paper. 8 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Wages, or more concretely – the growth rate of wages – represents the cost, or the supply side of the nominal economy. We acknowledge the fact that neither the minimum wage nor the nation-wise growth rate of the wages is typically in the hands of monetary policy makers. However, it’s important to keep wages in the list of potential determinants of inflation and aggregate output more as a representative measure of the supply side of the economy, something which will make our analysis more complete. Wages, broad monetary base, and remittances are the variables not always considered in empirical investigations of the monetary transmission channels. We believe that these three variables will add some originality in the perspective on the traditional approach to monetary transmission literature. Overall, we will analyze 4 channels of monetary transmission in this study: exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, bank lending channel, and the monetary channel. Detailed description of the variables used in each channel is available in Section 3.1. The Case of CIS After the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, hundreds of millions of people were left very much in chaos and disorder on all levels of governance. In order to preserve the unity that existed in the Soviet times, the Commonwealth of Independent States was established by Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, and the supranational organization now includes 10 official and 1 unofficial member. It is still unclear whether the CIS plays any effective role as a governing body on a daily basis and carries any significant impact on legislation and/or polit-economical directions of its constituents. However, member-states of this group do resemble each other in their dynamic of development and nation-building in the past 20 or so years, and thus it has become common to view CIS as a distinct economic unit. One of the traits that is shared by most if not all of the CIS countries is the fragility of legislation and the rule of law, the decease that has plagued the region for much of its independent existence. Our interest lies in the economic and financial aspects of legal governance, and on that front, although much has indeed been accomplished (like the de juro sovereignty of the national banks), incomplete and outdated legal codes coupled with inefficient execution on the low and medium administrative levels contribute to an economic and financial environment without a solid, complete legal foundation. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 9 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Furthermore, with the imperfections in legal governance of the financial sectors of CIS states naturally comes the problem of the large informal sectors of the economy. Corruption and the shadow economy are a problem for the CIS, but to be fair that is an ongoing issue for all developing economies and countries in transition of this world. With the presense of a large nformal economy, formal sources of funding like the ones which will be discussed in this paper lose their marginal superiority over the informal routes. As a result, channels of monetary transmission can not possible measure (at least not fully) the impact that the informal economy has on real macroeconomic aggreagates. This implies that some if not most of transmission channels are not operational in the CIS due to the presence of alternative and unregistered sources of funding. We can also not discard the importance of remittances that for some of the CIS member states are in the highest ranks in the world, such as Tajikistan and Armenia. Remittances are not necessarily illegal, but they do represent a somewhat informal channel of financing, and they are typically denominated in foreign currencies. On the monetary front, CIS member-states almost uniformally confronted years of very high inflation (and some countries exhibited textbook examples of hyperinflation) following the Soviet Union breakdown. Inflation came as a result of two dominant factors. First, national governments in the CIS region were deeply in debt, with the obligations spiralling out of control. In order to finance the debt, national banks were required to effectively print more money and buy out those government debt obligations. This eventually debased national currencies, forcing some states to adobt fixed-exchange or semi-fixed currency regimes; either with respect to the American Dollar or to the Russian Ruble. The second factor which caused hyperinflation in the CIS was backward wage indexation which was unchanged since the Soviet era (Botric and Cota, 2006). Extremely rapid wage elevation and a poor system of managing that growth led to exploding incomes and opulence of money, which at the end of the day carried less and less marginal value. Hyperinflation, by and large, is an issue of the past for members of the CIS. However, certain countries like Belarus still have dangerously high inflation rates, ranging from 20 to 30% annualized. Consequently, following the collapse of trust in national currencies due to hyperinflation and relative debasement, populations in the CIS began using foreign currencies such as the Dollar in their everyday operations. The famous notion of “dollarization” paralyzed monetary policy makers in the region, who were not able to effectively perform their duties due to the enormously large amount of foreign currency in domestic circulation. Dollarization is still a relevant problem for some 10 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review of the CIS members, however due to managed exchange rate regimes, monetary governing bodies have been considerably successful with stabilizing the system and enforcing monetary policy at least on some of the available channels. Perhaps the most urgent of all problems for today that CIS countries are facing is the development of financial markets and the financial sector in general. On many layers, financial sector in the CIS is defficient and lagging behind not just the industrialzed states but also the developing countries in Eastern-Europe and Asia. First, the overall infrastructure of financial intermediation is in need of reform and strengthening. The overall levels of monetization and financial intermediation are low, which causes aggregate demand in CIS states to respond little to credit or deposit rates. Second, the region is very high in terms of quantities of foreign currency-denominated loans to the private sector. Thus, financing decisions are not affected to large extent by the interventions into domestic interest rate markets. Third, the banking sectors in almost all CIS states suffer from low levels of competion (consolidation of leading national commercial banks into groups of “Top-5” or alike). It has also become common for many CIS commercial banks, and many economic agents in general for that matter, to obtain capital through external financing, thus leaving them indifirrent to the performance of domestic monetary and financial indicators. Further, the nonbank financial sectors are practically non-existant for most CIS states. Absense of serious stock and debt markets, mortgage markets, insurance industries, hampers the the probability of either the asset price channel or the balance sheet channel to work appropriately. In addition, most if not all CIS countries must still address the issue of capital account liberalization, since capital mobility in certain countries of the region is considerably low (Jamilov, 2012). This is partially explained by active policies to prevent currency depreciations in the region (Keller, Richardson, 2003). Finally, qualitatively speaking, poor human capital expertise on the fronts of risk management, credit risk assessment, and accounting further influence the workings of monetary transmission channels in quite a negative way. All in all, CIS is a region in transmission with its member-states showing signs of great resemblence, both in terms of historical development, and also in the types of problems that they are facing nowadays. Incomplete legislative foundations, informal sectors and shadow economies, dollarization, noncompetitiveness and consolidation in the banking sectors, capital account immobility, underdevelopment of the capital markets, and a growing need for transparent governance are among Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 11 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV the primary challenges for the CIS now and going forward. While analyzing the issue of monetary policy transmission in the CIS, we must look at the issue through the prism of the region’s peculiarites which were just mentioned. In light of these factors, we expect that the channels that we will measure (interest rate, exchange rate, bank lending, and monetary) will not always behave in a way that theory or evidence from industrialized states would predict. Indeed there have been many papers, both theoretical and empirical in nature, in the field of monetary policy transmission. There have been also some studies, both on individual country-basis and on the CIS as a group, on the channels of monetary transmission for the case of CIS. However, the originality of this paper is that nobody, to the best of our knowledge, has performed such a comprehensive countrywise and regional analysis employing 3 distinct econometric methodologies. We will present the behavior of 4 channels of monetary transmission for 9 member states of the CIS over the period of 2000-2009. We will analyze the dynamics of monetary transmission channels in the short run using a VAR framework and in the long run using an ARDL approach to cointegration. And we will also provide evidence on how the CIS performs as a distinct unit via fixed effects panel-data analysis. In the end we will highlight the best and the worst performing channels of monetary transmission, and provide policy-relevant recommendations and conclusions. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. In Section 2 we provide a review on the channels of monetary transmission literature. Section 3 describes the data and the countries used in our analysis, and lays out the econometric methods which were employed. Section 4 reports the short-run and long-run individual country as well as the CIS panel data results. Section 5 offers a discussion of our findings. Finally, Section 6 concludes. Literature Review Boivin, Kiley, and Mishkin (2011) suggest to categorize the monetary transmission channels into neoclassical and non-neoclassical groups. To the former category belongs the path that the interest rate takes to the real economy through investment and consumption. The non-neoclassical channels function through the change in the supply of credit and how the bank balance sheets respond to credit innovations. The relative efficiency of these two channels depends on the degree of development of the domestic financial system. 12 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Mishra, Montiel, and Spilimbergo (2010) provide arguments in favor of the bank lending channel as the prime route for monetary policymaking. They argue that apart from the bank lending channel, the interest rate channel, the asset channel, and the exchange rate channel are limited in their scope and ability by a set of negative factors: absense of well-functioning markets for fixed-income securities and equities, weak real estate markets, heavy central bank intervention in the foreign exchange markets, and by the very imperfect connections with the international capital markets. See (Keller, Richardson, 2003) for the discussion of exchange rate regimes in the CIS economies. In addition to the bank lending channel, the balance sheet channel is predicted to operate as a financial accelerator through the increased external finance premium. Moreover, the bank lending channel is often regarded as the key channel of monetary transmission (Cetorelli and Godlberg, 2008). Presumably because banking is always among the largest non-energy sources of growth generation in developing economies, and also because banks are still the prime channel for obtaining funds. The channel tends to work differently for large and for small banks, with the difference typically rationalized by the higher substitutability of deposits as sources of funding for the larger institutions. Small banks, on the other hand, have a smaller chance of obtaining funds through alternative means. Thus, the bank lending channel operates in a discriminative manner with respect to size, balance-sheet wise. (Kashyap and Stein, 1995, 2000). With respect to the case of CIS, the a priori expectation on the working of the bank lending channel is ambivalent: on hand hand, the banking sectors in most CIS countries are considerably consolidated, so this particular channel of transmission should not work because of the presense of larger banks. In the meantime, it’s improbable that many banks in the CIS are global in nature, with most institutions holding assets either domestically or outside the country but still relativel close to the home region. The lack of a global nature of CIS banks therefore suggests that the bank lending channel should be operational (Cetorelli and Goldberg, 2008). Further with regards to the bank lending channel, the path from monetary policy aggregates to the real economy lies through the availability and cost of bank credit. If the link between monetary policy interventions and the availability and the cost of credit is low, then the banking sector is not competitive enough and the real cost of bank lending is actually very high due to a poor institutional environment. If the link between the availability and the cost of credit and the real economy is low then the formal sector of the economy is too small. Note that both bank sector noncompetitiveness and the dominance of the informal financial sector are two factors Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 13 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV very much expected in the case of CIS. Therefore, it’s possible that the pass-through from monetary policy actions onto the real economy will be weak on both paths. Kabundi and Nonhlanhla (2011) provide interesting evidence on the importance of the channel of confidence in the case of monetary transmission in South Africa. They built a Factor-Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) framework and concluded that confidence in addition to the interest rate channel play the biggest role of explaining the real economy and prices. Also for South Africa, Ncube and Ndou (2011) claim that the wealth effect and the credit channel should be targeted for conducting anti-inflation policies. Channels of monetary transmission should not be just operational on a technical side. They must also be controled by a credible monetary policy center. Mohanty and Turner (2008) argue that credibility and credible monetary policy frameworks are essential in strengthening the efficiency of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission in the emerging market economies (EMEs). Mukherjee and Bhattacharya (2011) conclude that for the case of EMEs, the interest rate channel impacts private consumption and investment. They also decomposed their results for the scenarios of with and without inflation targeting, and proved that presense of the inflation targeting regime does not alter the main conclusion. Another work for the EMEs highlights the importance of having a developed domestic financial system (Bhattacharya, 2011). Weakness in the system coupled with a large informal sector in the economy leads to weak performance of the traditional channels of monetary transmission. In this paper, the most powerful transmission channel was found to be the exchange rate channel, while the interest rates had no significant impact on aggregate demand. Dollarization in the context of monetary policy has been addressed in AcostaOrmaechea and Coble (2011). They argue that in Chile and New Zealand the traditional interest rate channel is more important, while in Peru and Uruguay the most significant channel is the exchange rate channel. Horvath and Maino (2006) believe that dollarization has a negative effect on the efficiency of the independent interest rate channel of monetary transmission. Dollarization, as discussed in the previous section, is also a serious issue for the countries of the CIS. Korhonen and Wachtel (2005) claim that domestic prices reflect the changes in the exchange rate very quickly; in other words, the speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium is fairly high. They argue that this signals the 14 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review high level of dollarization in most CIS countries. See (Balino, Bennet, Borensztein, 1999) and (Sahay, Vegh, 1995) for the discussion of monetary policy in a highlydollarized economies. Mohanty (2012) provide an extensive treatment of the monetary transmission channels for the case of India, but derive conclusions that are applicable to a much general pool of countries. Namely, they argue that deregulation of interest rates, government-led auction-based market borrowing programme, development of the short-term money markets, reduction in statutory reserve requirements, among other reforms have contributed to the development of the interest rate based indicrect instrument for monetary policy management. Isakova (2008) conducted a VAR analysis for three Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan). Results of this study show that policy rates passed through to money market interest rates without much trouble. However, inflation and aggregate output are not significantly affected by the innovations in the policy rates. They conclude that the bank lending channel is weak in the case of these three countries. Dabla-Norris and Dloerkermeier (2006) analyzed the interest rate pass-through in Armenia and concluded that monetary policy rates transmitted well into the market interest rates. However, the market rates did not affect the real economy or price dynamics. Also for the case of Armenia, but with far-reaching implications for literature in general, Bordon and Weber (2010) decomposed the time series into two regimes, one with a highly dollarized economy and the other with a low degree of dollarization. They have demonstrated that dollarization negatively affects the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission, since policy rates did a far greater job of affecting inflation and output in a low-dollarization regime. Thus, for the traditional monetary transmission channels to work, it’s possible that the countries of the CIS will have to de-deollarize their domestic economies first. Bakradze and Billmeier (2007) and Samkharadze (2008) show that aggregate output does not respond well to the innovations in the monetary policy variables in the case of Georgia. Similarly, inflation is also not affected by monetary policy shocks. The bank lending channel appears to be functioning in the correct manner, however bank interest rates do not impact aggregate output in a statistically significant way. Agayev (2011) conducted a panel data analysis for 10 CIS countries in order to determine the factors which explain the region’s inflation dynamics. They found that Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 15 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV wages and exchange rate innovations do the best job of explaining inflation in the CIS in the long run. In the short run, however, changes in the bottom-line monetary base is the best explanating factor of price movements. Overall, the exchange rate and the monetary channels seemed to be the best at predicting inflation in the CIS. With regards to methodologies used in monetary policy transmission studies, most have resolved to the traditional VAR framework (Sims, 1980; Blanchard and Quah, 1989; Bernanke and Blinder, 1992; Cristiano and Eichenbaum, 1992). Others have used SVAR approaches (Aslanidi, 2007), and panel data structures (Agayev, 2011). A relatively novel method of studying the pass-through of monetary policy channels involves an ARDL approach to cointegration (Crespo-Cuaresma et.al., 2004). Some researches devised structural, DSGE-like models explaining macro-dynamics of countries involving numerous policy and market variables (Golinelli and Rovelli, 2002). But all in all, VAR analysis seems to be the most preferred method for shortrun analysis, Vector Error Correction – VECM (if the variables are non-stationary) – for long-run investigations, ARDL for the case of variable stationarity (which is common for small samples), and panel fixed and random effects for a look at a group of several countries. Mishkin (1996) presented an exhaustive explanation of all existing channels of monetary transmission. Egert and MacDonald (2006) provided an excellent literature review on many empirical studies on monetary transmission in developing economies. Data Description and Econometric Methodology Data Description Annual data for the period of 2000-2009 was used for 9 countries of the CIS. Our data selection has been driven by the availability of reliable information for some members of the region. The data set for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Ukraine was compiled. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been omitted due to data non-existence. For interpretation purposes, most series have been transformed using a natural 16 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review logarithm. Overall, data was obtained from such sources as CIS Stats, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), The World Bank, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Statistical Offices and National Banks of the member states of the CIS. The variables were chosen with respect to their theoretical belonging to a particular channel of monetary transmission. For example, the refinance rate is part of the interest rate channel analysis, while remittances are included into the exchange rate channel discussion. Consult Table 1 below for a thorough description of the series used in this paper. Table 1. Data Sources and Description Indicator Consumer Price Index (CPI) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Refinancing Rate (RR) Source and Description Source: OECD, National Bureaus of Statistics; Format: Nominal, Annual Average; in % Source: CIS Stats; Format: Nominal, Domestic Currency; LN Transformation Source: OECD, National Central Banks; Format: 6-month Rates, End-Year; in % Transmission Channel Macro Variable Macro Variable Interest Rate Channel Federal Funds Rate (FFR) Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Online Database; Format: Effective Federal Funds Rate, nominal, End-Year; in % Interest Rate Channel (Exogenous) Lending Rate (LR) Source: OECD, National Central Banks; Format: End-Year, Average Lending Rate; in % Bank Lending Channel Deposit Rate (DR) Source: OECD, National Central Banks; Format: End-Year, Average Lending Rate; in % Bank Lending Channel Wage Growth Rate (WG) Monetary Base (M2) Exchange Rate (ER) Remittances (REM) Oil Prices (OILP) Volume 3 Number 1 Source: OECD, National Central Banks; Format: Gross Monetary Channel Average Monthly Earnings, Percent Change; in % Source: CIS Stats; Format: Nominal, End-of-year, Monetary Channel LN Transformation Source: OECD; Format: Domestic Currency per 1 Exchange Rate Channel US Dollar, End-of-Year, LN Transformation Source: World Bank Remittances Factbook 2008, Exchange Rate Channel 2011; Format: Total Inward Remittance Flow, in (Exogenous) USD, Nominal, LN Transformation Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Online Exchange Rate Channel Database; Format: Spot price per barrel, in USD, (Exogenous) Annual-Average Spring 2013 17 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Econometric Methodology Short-Run Analysis Using VAR As noted in the previous section, we will use a VAR framework to demonstrate the short-dynamics of the responses of our macroeconomic variables (CPI and GDP) to innovations in the various policy variables. A VAR in the level form will be estimated ala Jamilov (2011). The VAR system in this paper will take the following form: Zt = A1 Zt 1 +A 2 Zt 2 + +A n Zt n +B X t + t where, Z is a vector of n variables, X – vector of deterministic variables;  – vector of innovations. For example, if we want to build a VAR model for the interest rate channel of Ukraine, we will use GDP, CPI, and the refinancing rate of Ukraine as endogenous variables, with the addition of the federal funds rate as a deterministic exogenous variable, plus the constant and the error term. In similar fashion, we will build VARs for all 9 countries and for each of the 4 channels of monetary transmission. The preliminary VARs are required to determine the correct number of lags in the model, to ensure that there is no autocorrelation in the error terms, and that the residuals follow the pattern of a normal distribution. With the right number of lags, we construct the final VAR model in order to get impulse response functions and variance decompositions of the variables of interest. In the preliminary stage, a set of unit-root tests must be carried out to ensure that variables in our models have unit roots. Should a variable have a unit root in the level form, stationarity is obtained usually by first-differencing. If variables are nonstationary, then we will achieve a long-run equilibrating equation by constructing a traditional Vector Error Correction model (VEC). Otherwise, we will have to adopt an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) approach to cointegration, since this method doesn’t require the variables to be non-stationary in level form. As a brief theoretical note, a one-time movement in a policy variable will affect not only the real economic aggregates but also the future values of the policy variables 18 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �via the so-called feedback effect. It is important to account for these feedback effects if we want to estimate the monetary transmission models correctly. Therefore, an econometric method of vector auto regressions (VAR), not a conventional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) framework, should be employed. A VAR model and impulse response functions would take the feedback effects into account. Overall, we have 9 member-states of the CIS, 4 channels of monetary transmission, with 2 macro variables (CPI and GDP) and at least 1 and sometimes more policy variables in every channel. We will also use the federal funds rate, oil prices, and remittance flows as exogenous variables in certain VAR set-ups. In total, we have run 36 VAR models in order to obtain short-run coefficients for each country and for each channel of monetary transmission. Long-Run Analysis Using ARDL There are several reasons why we have decided to use the ARDL approach to cointegration (developed by Pesaran et al., 2001) as opposed to the more common VECM to study the long-run behavior of monetary policy transmission channels. First, this method solves the problem of variable endogeneity and the inability to test hypotheses on the estimated coefficients. Second, ARDL is far more superior than multivariate coointegration methods in the case of small samples, which is important in our case (Narayan, 2005). Second, ARDL models do not require the regressors to be non-stationary, and most of our variables will be indeed stationary in level form. We now present how one of our channels of monetary transmission (we will use the example of the interest rate channel) would be represented in the ARDL form: ௠ ௠ Ž‫ܲܦܩ‬௜ǡ௧ ൌ ߙ଴ ൅ σ௠ ௝ୀଵ Įଵ୧ ǻ Ž ‫ܲܦܩ‬௜ǡ௧ି௝ ൅ σ௝ୀ଴ Įଶ୧ ǻܴܴ௜ǡ௧ି௝ ൅ σ௝ୀ଴ Įଷ୧ ǻ‫ܴܨܨ‬௧ି௝ ൅ Įସ Ž ‫ܲܦܩ‬௜ǡ௧ିଵ ൅ Įହ ܴܴௗǡ௧ିଵ ൅ (2) Į଺ ‫ܴܨܨ‬௙ǡ௧ିଵ ൅ ߥ௧ where m means lag length, lnGDPi,t is the ln-transformed GDP of country i at time t, RR is the refinancing rate of country i and time t, and FFR is the US Federal Funds Rate. Similarly, we could have built an ARDL representation for CPI with the RR and FFR as model variables. Altogether, we will build 2 long-run models for each macro variable (GDP and CPI), for each country (9 CIS member states), for each channel of monetary transmission (4 channels). Overall, we have run 72 Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 19 �ARDL regressions in order to achieve long-run coefficients for each country and for each channel of monetary transmission. As noted above, it is not necessary to test our variables for unit root processes. Instead, we can proceed with testing for cointegration. The ARDL approach achieves this by presenting an F-statistic which tests the null hypothesis of no cointegration (H0: b5=b6=b7=b8=0) against the alternative hypothesis (H1: b5≠0, b6≠0, b7≠0, b8≠0). For every significance level there are two sets of critical values. If the F-statistic exceeds the upper-bound critical value, then the null hypothesis is rejected. If the F-statistic is below the lower-bound, then the null is accepted and we have no cointegration. Finally, if the F-statistic is between the two bounds then the test has no conclusive result. There is another way of testing for cointegration, which is looking at the error correction term in the ARDL’s short-run representation (Kremers et al., 1992). If the error correction term is statistically significant and negative, it implies that the variables are quick on approaching their long-run stabilizing conditions. Panel-Data Analysis Using Panel Fixed Effects Apart from attempting to investigate the channels of monetary transmission on individual-country basis, we have also devised a panel set-up for the period of 20002009, consisting of our 9 member-states of the CIS. We wish to find out how the CIS performs as a region with regards to monetary transmission. First, we have to test our panel data for the presence of a unit root. We will achieve this by running the Levin, Lin, and Chu (LLC, 2002) panel unit root test. This test is different from the individual unit root testing that we proposed in section 3.2.1. on individual-country VAR modeling. If variables in our panel set-up are non-stationary, then we will have to resort to advanced panel cointegration techniques for non-stationary data. Otherwise, we will employ a long-run panel fixed-effects model of the following form: lnGDPit= Įit + ȕ1,itRRit + ȕ2,itLRit + ȕ3,itDRit + ȕ4,itWGit + ȕ5,itlnM2it + ȕ6,itlnERit + ȕ7,itlnREMit + uit (3) Consider that in a similar fashion we will devise the panel fixed-effects regression for inflation, with CPI as a dependent variable. Note that for the regression of CPI we will also add CPI(-1) – the lag of inflation, which will represent inflation inertia, to the list of independent variables. Overall, there will be 2 panel fixed effects regressions, for each of the two macroeconomic variables (GDP and CPI), which will determine which of the variables is best at explaining inflation and output in the CIS. 20 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Results Short-run Results for Individual Countries We begin to present our short-run individual country results based on the VAR models. All the impulse response functions are available in the Appendix. Note that in our VAR set-up, the Federal Funds Rate (FFR), oil price (OILP), and remittances (REM) are treated as purely exogenous. Thus, an IRF representation for them will not be possible. Also consider that our small sample size limits the interpretational importance of the 5% statistical significance. Some of the responses will indeed be significant for several periods, and it will add more robustness for inference, but we are interested more in the general direction of each response and whether a given country will demonstrate any systematic evidence for efficiency in a particular transmission channel Interest Rate Channel Short-run individual country evidence for the interest rate channel is reported in the Figures 1 through 9. The primary policy variable for this channel is the refinancing rate. The US federal funds rate was taken as an exogenous variable. GDP and CPI are the macroeconomic aggregates by default. The response of aggregate output to innovations in the refinancing rate in the case of Armenia is strongly negative and statistically significant up to the 6th period (Figure 1). Armenian GDP declines following a one standard deviation increase in the country’s refinancing rate, which suggests that the interest rate channel is operational. The effect of the refinancing rate on inflation is almost negligible and not significant. For Azerbaijan, both GDP and CPI do not seem to be responding in a noticeable manner to refinancing rate innovations (Figure 2). The same conclusion could be applied to Belarus: there is no evidence that the interest rate channel is effective (Figure 3). For Kazakhstan, the path of the response of both output and prices to the refinancing rate is highly unstable, although GDP seems to demonstrate the presence of a price effect in the short run as output rises slightly, but then falls until its long-run Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 21 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV equilibrium below the pre-innovation level (Figure 4). Again, the dynamic is too unstable. For Kyrgyzstan, inflation shows behavior similar to the case of Kazakh CPI: unstable and insignificant (Figure 5). However, output seems to be increasing following a positive innovation in the refinancing rate, which is surprising from the theoretical point of view. CPI of Moldova has a significant positive response to the refinancing rate up to the 2nd period (Figure 6). Moldavian GDP, similarly to the case of Kazakh GDP, increases slightly following an intervention into the refinancing rate market. For Russia, although the effect is not significant, the refinancing rate carries a theoretically correct effect on aggregate output, since it declines when the interest rate is raised (Figure 7). Russian CPI movement is correlated with the direction of refinancing rate innovations, although in a very insignificant manner. For Tajikistan and Ukraine, we cannot detect any noticeable trend in the response of either output or inflation to the refinancing rate (Figure 8 and 9). Overall, only for the cases of Armenia and Russia, domestic output seems to be determined by fluctuations in the refinancing rate. Inflation in none of the CIS states, according to our calculations, can be managed via the interest rate channel. Figure 1. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Armenia Figure 2. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Azerbaijan Response of LNGDP_ARM to RR_ARM Response of LNGDP_AZE to RR_AZE .01 .08 .00 .04 -.01 -.02 .00 -.03 -.04 -.04 -.05 -.08 -.06 -.07 -.12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of CPI_ARM to RR_ARM 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_AZE to RR_AZE 1.2 6 0.8 4 0.4 2 0.0 0 -0.4 -2 -0.8 -4 -1.2 -1.6 1 22 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 3. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Belarus Figure 4. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Kazakhstan Response of LNGDP_BEL to RR_BEL Response of LNGDP_KAZ to RR_KAZ 0.8 .010 0.4 .005 0.0 .000 -0.4 -.005 -0.8 -.010 -1.2 -.015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of CPI_BEL to RR_BEL 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_KAZ to RR_KAZ 200 1.2 150 0.8 100 0.4 50 0.0 0 -0.4 -50 -0.8 -100 -150 -1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Figure 5. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Kyrgyzstan 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Figure 6. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Moldova Response of LNGDP_MOL to RR_MOL Response of LNGDP_KYR to RR_KYR .08 .016 .06 .012 .04 .008 .02 .004 .00 .000 -.02 -.004 -.008 -.04 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 10 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_MOL to RR_MOL Response of CPI_KYR to RR_KYR 1.5 4 3 1.0 2 1 0.5 0 0.0 -1 -2 -0.5 -3 -1.0 -4 1 Volume 3 2 3 4 5 Number 1 6 7 8 9 Spring 2013 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 23 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 7. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Russia Figure 8. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Tajikistan Figure 9. Response of GDP and CPI to Refinancing Rate – Ukraine 24 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Exchange Rate Channel Short-run individual country results for the exchange rate channel are presented in the Figures 10 through 18. The primary policy variable for this channel is the exchange rate between the national currency and the US dollar. Remittances and price of oil were selected as exogenous variables. Again, GDP and CPI are indicators of the broad macro-economy. Armenian GDP responds positively and significantly to an innovation in the national exchange rate up to the 5th period (Figure 10). Inflation on the other hand seems to be unresponsive to the exchange rate fluctuations. In case of Azerbaijan, aggregate output rises as the exchange rate depreciates for one standard deviation; domestic prices do not react in any noticeable way (Figure 11). Belarusian domestic aggregate output shows a slight short-run hike following an exchange rate devaluation, while inflation suffers a temporary decline (Figure 12). Both variables return to their pre-depreciation levels by the 4th period. GDP and CPI of Kazakhstan are not responsive to the country’s exchange rate movements (Figure 13). Domestic output of Kyrgyzstan is equally unaffected by the ER innovations; the Kyrgyz inflation, however, rises slightly due to one standard deviation depreciation (Figure 14). In the case of Moldova, both aggregate output and inflation exhibit a significant positive short-run response to a depreciation of the Leu (Figure 15). Interestingly, after several periods inflation declines and even falls below the pre-devaluation level. GDP of Russia increases following a currency devaluation, and the effect is significant for 3 periods. Russian CPI falls in response to the depreciation, also in a significant way up to the 2nd period (Figure 16). Tajikistani GDP does not seem to be responsive to domestic exchange rate innovations (Figure 17). Inflation, however, has a significant negative short-run response to a one standard deviation fall in value of the somoni. In the long run, the exchange rate remains practically unchanged and returns to the initial equilibrium. For Ukraine, neither GDP nor CPI react in any substantial way to interventions into the exchange rate. Overall, the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission, according to our calculations, is visibly operational in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. Certain degrees of effectiveness are observed in Russia and Belarus. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 25 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 10. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Armenia Figure 11. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Azerbaijan Response of LNGDP_ARM to LNER_ARM .06 Response of LNGDP_AZE to LNER_AZE .03 .05 .02 .04 .03 .01 .02 .01 .00 .00 -.01 -.01 -.02 -.03 -.02 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of CPI_ARM to LNER_ARM 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_AZE to LNER_AZE 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Figure 12. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Belarus 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Figure 13. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Kazakhstan Response of LNGDP_BEL to LNER_BEL Response of LNGDP_KAZ to LNER_KAZ .004 0.8 .003 0.4 .002 .001 0.0 .000 -0.4 -.001 -0.8 -.002 -.003 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_BEL to LNER_BEL Response of CPI_KAZ to LNER_KAZ 0.8 20 0.4 15 10 0.0 5 -0.4 0 -0.8 -5 -10 -1.2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -15 1 26 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 14. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Kyrgyzstan Figure 15. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Moldova Response of LNGDP_KYR to LNER_KYR Response of LNGDP_MOL to LNER_MOL .08 .04 .03 .04 .02 .00 .01 .00 -.04 -.01 -.08 -.02 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 Response of CPI_KYR to LNER_KYR 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_MOL to LNER_MOL 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -6 -2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Figure 16. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Russia 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Figure 17. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Tajikistan Response of LNGDP_BEL to LNER_BEL Response of LNGDP_UKR to LNER_UKR 1.2 .004 0.8 .003 .002 0.4 .001 0.0 .000 -0.4 -.001 -0.8 -.002 -.003 -1.2 1 2 3 4 1 5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_BEL to LNER_BEL Response of CPI_UKR to LNER_UKR 300 0.8 200 0.4 100 0.0 0 -0.4 -100 -0.8 -1.2 -200 1 Volume 3 2 3 Number 1 4 Spring 2013 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 27 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 18. Response of GDP and CPI to Exchange Rate – Ukraine Monetary Channel Short-run individual country results for the monetary channel are available in the Appendix under Figures 19 through 27. GDP and CPI are the default indicators of domestic demand and inflation respectively. M2 and WG are the policy variables of the domestic supply of broad money and the average annualized growth rate of nominal wages, respectively. Armenian GDP shows a positive response to an increase in wages, but not to M2. The effect is not statistically significant though (Figure 19). Inflation does not seem to be affected by WG, while for M2 the dynamic is too unstable and inconclusive, although there is a statistically significant price spike in the short run following the increase in the monetary base. For the case of Azerbaijan, neither wages nor money seem to be effective at influencing GDP or inflation (Figure 20). Gross Domestic Product of Belarus displays a significant positive response up to the 4th period to an increase in M2 (Figure 21). M2 has a negative but a non-significant effect on inflation. With regards to wages, a one standard deviation increase in WG has a stably negative effect on output but a positive short-run effect on inflation. 28 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Both effects are insignificant. For Kazakhstan, domestic output and inflation both increase in the short run due to an impulse of wage growth (Figure 22). Broad money supply has no effect on either Kazakh GDP or prices. Wages carry a positive, although insignificant, impact on Kyrgyz GDP; the response of inflation is too unstable (Figure 23). M2 has no effect whatsoever on output or inflation. In the case of Moldova, an increase in M2 has a light positive effect on domestic production and no seemingly meaningful effect on prices (Figure 24). Wages cause no response from the dynamic of Moldavian GDP, although they initiate a decline in inflation in the short run and then a slight recovery. Neither effect is statistically significant, even at the 10% level. For Russia, broad money does a poor job of affecting either GDP or CPI (Figure 25). Wages, on the other hand, have a significant positive effect on output in the short run (peculiar form of a price effect), which is followed by a long-run decline. Inflation follows a similar path: rising in the short run due to an increase in nominal wage growth, and falling after several periods. Tajikistani WG has a negative effect on inflation and on GDP. In the case of inflation, the impact is particularly strong and statistically significant for 2 periods. Both GDP and M2 increase slightly due to an expansion in the monetary base, although in an insignificant manner (Figure 26). For the case of Ukraine, M2 has no effect at all on domestic GDP and CPI. Wages carry a positive effect on aggregate output for all periods, while for inflation the effect is negative in the short run and positive after the 5th period. All in all, for almost every country of the CIS either broad money or nominal wage growth can explain at least one of our two macro variables. In general, output has shown more sensitivity to monetary variable innovations than inflation. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 29 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 19. Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Armenia Response of LNGDP_ARM to WG_ARM Response of LNGDP_ARM to LNM2_ARM .24 .24 .20 .20 .16 .16 .12 .12 .08 .08 .04 .04 .00 .00 -.04 -.04 -.08 -.08 -.12 -.12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of CPI_ARM to WG_ARM 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_ARM to LNM2_ARM 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 30 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 20. Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Azerbaijan Response of LNGDP_AZE to WG_AZE Response of LNGDP_AZE to LNM2_AZE 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of CPI_AZE to WG_AZE 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_AZE to LNM2_AZE 120 120 80 80 40 40 0 0 -40 -40 -80 -80 1 Volume 3 2 3 4 5 Number 1 6 7 8 9 Spring 2013 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 31 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 21. Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Belarus Response of LNGDP_BEL to WG_BEL Response of LNGDP_BEL to LNM2_BEL .08 .08 .06 .06 .04 .04 .02 .02 .00 .00 -.02 -.02 -.04 -.04 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of CPI_BEL to WG_BEL 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_BEL to LNM2_BEL 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 32 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 22. Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Kazakhstan Response of LNGDP_KAZ to WG_KAZ Response of LNGDP_KAZ to LNM2_KAZ .08 .08 .04 .04 .00 .00 -.04 -.04 -.08 -.08 -.12 -.12 -.16 -.16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of CPI_KAZ to WG_KAZ 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of CPI_KAZ to LNM2_KAZ 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 1 Volume 3 2 3 4 5 Number 1 6 7 8 9 Spring 2013 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 33 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 23. Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Kyrgyzstan 34 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 24 Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Moldova Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 35 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 25. Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Russia 36 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 26. Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Tajikistan Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 37 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 27. Response of GDP and CPI to Wages and M2 – Ukraine 38 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Bank Lending Channel Short-run individual country results for the bank lending channel are available in the Appendix under Figures 28 through 36. For the bank lending channel, which according to many theoretical and empirical papers on monetary transmission in developing economies, should be an efficient and relevant channel, we are using the deposit interest rate and the lending interest rate as main policy variables. GDP and CPI are once again taken as indicators of the overall macroeconomic environment. For Armenia, the lending rate has no impact on either GDP or CPI (Figure 28). However, output shows a considerably negative, and almost completely significant up to the 6th period, response to a one standard deviation increase in domestic deposit rates. Inflation initially rises but then falls following an innovation in the interest rates on deposits. For Azerbaijan, there is no visible effect of either deposit or credit interest rates on both output and prices (Figure 29). In the case of Belarus, domestic inflation increases following a hike in the deposit interest rates, and the effect is significant for 2 periods (Figure 30). Prices are not affected by the credit rates, and Belarusian output does not react to either lending or deposit rates of interest. In Kazakhstan, the bank lending channel doesn’t exhibit any sign of efficiency, as neither deposit nor lending interest rates affect GDP or inflation in any way (Figure 31. For Kyrgyzstan, the bank lending channel does not present any evidence for functionality (Figure 32). In the case of Moldova, output responds in a negative way to an increase in domestic deposit rates (Figure 33). The effect is not significant, but considerable. No impact is observed on GDP from the impulse to LR. Inflation is not affected by the lending rates, while the effect from deposit rates is dual: falling inflation in the short run, and then recovery in the medium-long run. There is no clear trend and the dynamic is very unstable and follows a cyclical/sinusoidal trajectory. Innovations in Russian domestic deposit and lending interest rates both negatively affect the country’s GDP, and in a statistically significant way up to the 4th period (Figure 34). The bank lending channel is extremely homogenous for Russia, since interest rates on credit and deposit affect the real economy in much the same way. Inflation has a positive response to an increase in either lending or deposit rates. For Tajikistan, LR has no effect whatsoever on GDP or CPI (Figure 35). Rise in DR, however, has a visible short-run impact on output and prices. The dynamic afterwards is too unstable for any reasonable conclusion to be reached on the working of the channel in Tajikistan. Finally, neither lending nor deposit interest rates have any consistent effect on GDP and CPI in the case of Ukraine (Figure 36). Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 39 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV All in all, according to our results, the bank lending channel seems to be operational in Armenia, Moldova, and Russia. Again we observe that output is much more flexible to policy innovations than is inflation. Figure 28. Response of GDP and CPI to Deposit and Lending Interest Rates – Armenia 40 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 29. Response of GDP and CPI Deposit and Lending Interest Rates– Azerbaijan Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 41 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 30. Response of GDP and CPI to Deposit and Lending Interest Rates – Belarus 42 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 31. Response of GDP and CPI Deposit and Lending Interest Rates– Kazakhstan Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 43 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 32. Response of GDP and CPI to Deposit and Lending Interest Rates – Kyrgyzstan 44 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 33. Response of GDP and CPI Deposit and Lending Interest Rates– Moldova Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 45 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 34. Response of GDP and CPI to Deposit and Lending Interest Rates – Russia 46 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Figure 35. Response of GDP and CPI Deposit and Lending Interest Rates– Tajikistan Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 47 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Figure 36. Response of GDP and CPI to Deposit and Lending Interest Rates – Ukraine 48 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Long-Run Results for Individual Countries We are now presenting results of our ARDL regressions to shed light on the longrun behavior of the channels of monetary transmission in the case of our 9 CIS countries. Firstly, we note that all of our regressions are cointegrated according the bound testing procedure. F-test results are omitted for brevity but are available upon request. We have run all the regressions and summarized the results for each country in one single table (Table 2 in the Appendix). We have once again investigated 4 channels of monetary transmission (interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, bank lending channel, and monetary channel) and used essentially the same variable set-ups as in the case of short-run VAR models presented in section 4.1. For example, we are still using the domestic refinancing rate as the prime policy variable in the interest rate channel, with the federal funds rate as the exogenous variable. Note that for the exchange rate channel, in addition to the exchange rate variable itself, we will also present for the first time quantitative evidence for using remittances as a channel of transmission. For Armenia, the only channel which seems to operate in the long run is the monetary channel, through which both M2 and WG significantly affect the nation’s aggregate output. No other effect is significant. Belarus demonstrates a high level of long-run workability in the bank lending channel. However, only the effect from the lending rate is negative, which is the theoretically correct response to a spike in interest rates. In addition, M2 has a positive significant effect on Belarusian GDP, and CPI is positively affected by innovations in the refinancing rate. From Table 2 in the Appendix, we see that flow of remittance has a considerable and positive impact on both GDP and CPI of Azerbaijan in the long run. Monetary base (M2) positively and significantly affects the country’s GDP, while an increase in the refinancing rate creates a significant positive response in the CPI. No other variables present statistically significant outcomes. For Kazakhstan, the monetary channel seems to be the most important channel of transmission in the long run. CPI is affected both by wage growth and by the monetary base, and in a statistically significant way. GDP is also affected by the M2. Similarly to the case of Azerbaijan and Belarus, Kazakh inflation responds in a positive significant manner to innovations in the refinancing rate. Kyrgyzstan exhibits a strong monetary channel, since its domestic output is affected in a significant way by the broad money supply, and CPI responds in a positive and Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 49 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV significant way to a rise in the nominal wage growth rate. Also, flow of remittance has a negative significant effect on Kyrgyz CPI. Moldovan CPI can only be influenced in a significant way by raising the domestic exchange rate. GDP, however, is sensitive both to the bank lending and to the monetary channels. Increases in either M2 or WG carry a significant positive effect on Moldova’s GDP, and so does the deposit interest rate. Lending interest rates negatively affect GDP in the long run, which unlike the sign of the deposit rate impact, is the theoretically correct outcome. For Russia, all channels of monetary transmission show some degree of workability in the long run. First, domestic refinancing rate affects GDP and CPI in a negative and in a positive way respectively. Second, lending interest rates have a significant negative effect on GDP, and a significant positive effect on CPI. In response to an increase in domestic deposit rates, Russian CPI declines. GDP also responds in a statistically significant way to an increase in M2. Inflation is highly responsive both to variations in the exchange rate of the Ruble, and to the flow of remittance from abroad. Tajikistan shows signs of a working exchange rate channel in the long run, as the exchange rate of Somoni affects both the Tajik GDP and CPI. Remittances and domestic interest rates on deposit both explain inflation, and cause its decline in the long run. Finally, for the case of Ukraine, the refinancing rate has a positive significant effect on both output and inflation. So does the broad money base, as GDP and CPI increase in the long run following an impulse from M2. CPI can also be influenced by varying either interest rates on deposits or the domestic exchange rate, since both variables carry a significant positive effect on domestic price level. By and large, long-run GDP of all CIS countries is responsive to innovations in the broad supply of money (M2). All 9 cases show that M2 positively affects GDP in the long run. For inflation the situation is different, as there is no universal conclusion. For some cases, CPI is driven by the exchange rate, for others – by the refinancing rate or the deposit interest rates. Consistent with our finding in Section 4.1, output is a lot more responsive to variations in policy variables than is inflation, suggesting that both in the short run and in the long run inflation cannot be systematically affected, or explained for that matter, in the region of CIS. Remittance, our original addition to the traditional discussion of monetary transmission channels, affects long-run inflation in a statistically significant way in 4 of 9 cases, and output only for the case of Azerbaijan. 50 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Table 2. Long-run ARDL Estimates of the Channels of Monetary Transmission in individual CIS countries Dependent Variable Interest Channel Armenia GDP CPI RR -0.03241 -0.13305 LR -0.10789 0.029878 DR 0.003136 -0.27944 M2 0.49321 1.1926 WG 0.012336 0.10831 ER -6.7442 9.2648 REM 1.1154 -0.67652 Azerbaijan GDP CPI -1.0749 4.2079 0.32143 1.5718 -0.086 0.091337 0.77205 4.2565 -0.02417 -10.3781 -0.77127 -0.12487 0.42941 1.5576 Belarus GDP CPI 0.027193 1.0724 -0.2526 -2.5356 0.33208 5.1889 0.61478 -10.7729 0.004057 0.16538 0.91783 -3.4737 0.08743 -1.7363 Kazakhstan GDP CPI 0.12968 2.8766 -0.1591 2.135 0.018284 -0.40912 0.60873 1.4938 0.005028 0.53666 -12.2264 -19.9 -1.2213 -27.925 Kyrgyzstan GDP CPI -0.20092 1.998 0.090923 -0.31599 -0.23863 -0.01535 0.41251 2.2517 0.028863 0.75434 8.5998 12.5628 3.5021 -4.1365 Moldova GDP CPI 0.12351 1.2194 -0.6562 -10.9836 0.17436 1.9765 0.68782 1.2155 0.013584 -0.31324 5.1249 8.1786 -0.16673 0.16672 Russia GDP CPI -0.08053 0.64986 -0.16297 1.661 0.10564 -1.1322 0.66078 -1.7035 0.001362 0.27264 2.055 -6.7306 0.44869 -11.3705 Tajikistan GDP CPI -0.39436 1.5514 -0.37563 -1.3845 -0.39966 -2.2224 0.63523 4.7645 0.030577 0.15076 5.4776 10.9657 -0.10471 -15.8348 Ukraine GDP CPI 0.19143 3.4232 0.12031 -0.60575 1.8635 2.3894 0.70479 14.4865 0.018636 -0.70358 -29.7124 35.0952 -9.598 4.5702 Banking Channel Monetary Channel Exchange Rate Channel Note: RR – refinancing rate, LR – lending rate, DR – deposit rate, M2 – broad monetary base, WG – annual wage growth, ER – exchange rate, REM – remittances. Bold formatting indicates statistical significance of the coefficient at the 5% level. For example, the impact of the refinancing rate on the CPI of Azerbaijan is 4.2079: statistically significant at the 5% level. Panel Results for CIS as a Group We conclude our presentation of results by reporting the outcome from our panel fixed effects analysis of the CIS as a distinct group. All our variables are nonstationary of order I(1) according to our panel unit root test results, which are omitted for brevity. We have run 2 equations for our panel: one with GDP and Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 51 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV the other with CPI as dependent variable. For the CPI regression we are adding an additional variable of CPI(-1), which is the lag of inflation, to check on inflation inertia in the CIS. Table 3 has the outcome of the GDP regression, and Table reports the numbers for the CPI model. For CIS as a whole, output is influenced only by the fluctuations in the exchange rates and by the movements in the monetary base. None of our interest rate variables, nor the wage growth rate or flow of remittance has a significant effect on GDP. In essence, these panel results are consistent with what we achieved for the individual country long-run estimations in Section 4.2: M2 seems to have a strong impact over production and output in the CIS in the long run. For the CPI regression, we conclude that the refinancing rate, nominal wage growth rate, and the flow of remittance carry statistically significant effects on long run regional inflation. Again, this outcome is similar to our conclusion following the analysis in Section 4.2: individual country results also confirmed that remittances and refinancing rate are good predictors of price fluctuations in the long run. Note that, although inflation does have inertia, the effect is not statistically significant. Also an interesting observation is that all interest rate variables affect the region-wise inflation in a positive way, whereas theory would predict CPI to be inversely related to interest rates. 52 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Table 3. Panel Fixed Effects Estimates for the GDP Determinants in the CIS Dependent Variable: LN_GDP Method: Panel Least Squares Sample: 2000 2009 Cross-sections included: 7 Total panel (balanced) observations: 70 White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C LN_ER LN_M2 WG DR LR RR LN_REM 2.473668 0.390588 0.659864 -0.000358 -0.001239 0.008848 -0.003931 0.013141 0.455185 0.106693 0.014310 0.000793 0.004514 0.005782 0.003813 0.014203 5.434422 3.660861 46.11061 -0.451608 -0.274427 1.530349 -1.030912 0.925220 0.0000 0.0006 0.0000 0.6533 0.7848 0.1316 0.3070 0.3588 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.998682 0.998376 0.082903 0.384883 82.79019 1.979005 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 8.797067 2.057362 -1.965434 -1.515735 3264.478 0.000000 Note: RR- refinancing rate; DR – deposit rate; LR – lending rate; WG – nominal wage growth rate; ER – exchange rate vis-à-vis US Dollar; M2 – monetary base; REM –flow of remittances in USD. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 53 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV Table 4. Panel Fixed Effects Estimates for the Inflation Determinants in the CIS Dependent Variable: CPI Method: Panel Least Squares Sample (adjusted): 2001 2009 Cross-sections included: 7 Total panel (balanced) observations: 63 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C CPI1 RR DR LR WG LN_ER LN_M2 LN_REM -41.15838 0.036606 0.699298 0.266550 0.075246 0.202738 3.030569 1.287421 2.040335 21.20753 0.046927 0.127161 0.288744 0.231706 0.056461 4.244551 0.806225 0.790227 -1.940743 0.780072 5.499297 0.923137 0.324748 3.590758 0.713991 1.596851 2.581962 0.0582 0.4392 0.0000 0.3606 0.7468 0.0008 0.4787 0.1169 0.0129 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.926820 0.905476 2.978514 425.8343 -149.5870 2.200179 Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 10.56206 9.687898 5.224983 5.735253 43.42291 0.000000 Note: CPI1 indicates inflation inertia, i.e. the lag of CPI(-1); RR- refinancing rate; DR – deposit rate; LR – lending rate; WG – nominal wage growth rate; LN_ER – natural log of the exchange rate vis-à-vis US Dollar; LN_M2 – natural log of the broad monetary base; LN_REM – natural log of the flow of remittances in USD. 54 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Discussion We have achieved much heterogeneity for our short-run results: some countries of the CIS show strength virtually in all channels of monetary transmission, while others are effective just in one of the channels. In the long run, we can confidently state that GDP is affected by the supply of money, in addition to some marginal influence from the exchange rate. CPI is driven mainly by the movement in the refinancing rates, flow of remittance, and to some extent by the exchange rates and wages. Countries do differ greatly in the relative efficiency of their respective domestic monetary policies. However, there are some unifying arguments such as the monetary base being a universally strong factor of GDP, or the refinancing rate and remittances being a good predictor of inflation. We have witnessed once again that the question of monetary transmission channels is indeed very empirical and contextual, and depends as much on the country of focus as it does on theoretical models and generalizations. We also prove that treating CIS as a region is reasonable, since our results from the CIS panel fixed effects regressions do coincide with the individual country based VAR model. Our results are, by and large, consistent with the findings of previous literature. Flow of remittance, our original introduction to the exchange rate channel of monetary transmission, proves to be an important factor for future studies. Based on the results of this study and our survey of the practices, failures, and success stories in monetary policy-making of CIS states in the past 20 years, we wish to list once again the key directions for progress that this region needs to adopt to ensure continuous development of the region’s channels of monetary transmission.  Use short-term policy interest rates. Based on the success stories of CIS states with very efficient interest rate channels of monetary transmission, it is desirable that CIS countries, and indeed all developing economies, would focus on policies affecting short-term policy interest rates, e.g. overnight repo rates. The shorter the duration of those rates, the more influential the channel becomes and the easier it is for policy makers to quickly and correctly influence market interest rates.  Adopt inflation-targeting regimes. Although not exactly at the hyperinflation levels of early-mid 1990s, inflation rates in some CIS states are still structurally very high, especially when comparing with the developing parts of Central and Eastern Europe. Strategic shifts towards inflation targeting policy regimes would Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 55 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV serve a dual benevolent purpose for policy makers: it would not only drag the core inflation rate down, but also improve the overall working capacity of the channel of transmission.  De-dollarize the economy. High degrees of dollarization do not allow monetary policy interventions to affect domestic market variables up to a satisfactory level. Elevation of trust into the purchasing strength of the domestic currency, credibility of the national money issuer (i.e. central bank), transparent and credible expectations on future monetary policy stances are all important factors that contribute to the rebalancing of the population’s currency portfolio holdings towards the local currency and away from the foreign currency anchor.  Increase risk-premium for external financing. The vice of all interest rate channels of monetary transmission is the ease of obtaining funds from the sources alternative to the formal route. Policy makers should identify the dominant types of domestic informal financing, and attempt to raise the premium that fund-seekers should pay to get access to those informal finances; either through bureaucracy, a form of taxation and a mixture of financial incentives, or through legal enforcement.  Minimize the informal sector and the shadow economy. Econometric models of monetary transmission channels cannot assess (not in full, at least) the workings of the informal sectors of the economy. Coupled with the efforts to increase risk-premium for external financing, policy makers need to either eradicate the shadow economy completely or to at least make it feasible and beneficial for the informal agents to shift their interests towards the formal (legal) sector. Shadow economy minimization is an age old struggle but the benefits, which at least include an improvement of the monetary transmission channels, are worth the continuous effort.  Develop domestic capital markets and sources of non-bank financing. For better or for worse, banks are still the chief allocators of resources in most emerging economies, and certainly in the CIS. Formation of an optimal market for transference of funds from those with excess to those with deficit is paramount for fluidity and mobility of the whole financial sector. Much focus must be placed on the development of pension funds, markets for short-term governmental and non-governmental corporate bonds, markets for stocks and equity. Also important is to educate economic and financial agents about the value and advantages of non-bank sources of funding. 56 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review  Increase competitiveness in domestic banking sectors. Precisely because the populations of transition economies do not have alternative ways of formal financing, the banking sectors typically become uncompetitive. A monopoly on resource provision leads both to sector consolidation and also to artificially high market interest rates. Although, typically by legal mandate, the national bank cannot influence market interest rates on deposit and/credit directly (it can achieve this only indirectly though policy rate innovations), the government can limit bank mergers and acquisitions to protect the idea of an “optimal bank size”. It can also place interest rates on state-driven instruments (such as mortgage credit through the public/government channel) so low, that the bank-provided alternatives would seize to seem rational.  Establish a solid, transparent financial governing framework. Much as a supporting caveat to the ongoing technical financial and monetary reform, CIS states must ensure that the region is governed by an easy-to-understand and robust legal foundation. Many countries in the CIS still do not have a modern law on mortgage lending, or are in need of an urgent and considerable pension reform. The problem is that the financial sector is developing quicker than the legal framework which supports it. Gaps and inefficiencies in the legal code create room for informal activities. It is necessary, however, to not overcomplicate legal procedures, which would have an adverse incentive effect such as the desire to circumvent complex requirements and seek an easier, once again an informal, way out. Conclusion In this paper we have attempted to gather the efforts of decades of theoretical and empirical work on the channels of monetary transmission and produce a comprehensive review for the case of CIS. We have provided an extensive introduction and literature review which identified the most common transmission channels and their applicability to the CIS. In the stage of empirical analysis, we have studied both the short-run and the long-run performance of 4 channels of monetary transmission for 9 countries of the CIS. We have also looked at how the region performs as a distinct economic unit, having employed a panel data approach. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 57 �Emin HUSEYNOV / Rustam JAMILOV We conclude that broad supply of money (M2) is the only consistent channel through which policy makers can affect aggregate output. Meanwhile, flow of remittance and domestic refinancing interest rate are the main factors and indicators of inflation. The exchange rate seems to be playing a supporting role, both for output and inflation determination. While it is clear that the sphere of the channels of monetary transmission is largely an empirical and contextual issue, we have also found that CIS does behave like an integral unit from this particular angle. Although the region has accomplished a lot in the past two decades, still many challenges remain until the local channels of transmission reach its optimal level of efficiency. Among others, development of capital markets and non-bank sources of financing, adoption of inflation targeting regimes, improvement of the legal framework, and placement of a larger emphasis on short-term interest rate management are the questions to address for CIS policy makers in the years to come. References Acosta-Ormaechea, S., and Coble, D. (2011). Monetary transmission in dollarized and non-dollarized economies: The cases of Chile, New Zealand, Peru and Uruguay. IMF Working Paper No.11/87. Agayev, S. (2011). Exchange Rate, Wages, and Money; What Explains Inflation in CIS Countries: Panel Causality and Panel Fixed Effects Analysis. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics, 9 Aslanidi, O. (2007) The Optimal Monetary Policy and the Channels of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in CIS-7 Countries: The Case of Georgia. CERGE-EI Discussion Paper 2007-12, Charles University, Prague. Bakradze, G., and Billmeier, A. (2007) “Inflation Targeting in Georgia: Are We There Yet?” IMF Working Paper 07/193. Balino, T., Bennett, A., and Borensztein, E. (1999). Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies. IMF Occasional Paper, no. 171 Bernanke, B. and Blinder, A. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. American Economic Review, 82, 901-921. Bernanke, B. and Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, 27-48. Bhattacharya, R., Patnaik, I., and Shah, A. (2011). Monetary policy transmission in an emerging market setting. IMF Working Paper No.11/5. Blanchard, O., and Quah, D. (1989) The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances. American Economic Review, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73 58 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Boivin, J., Kiley, M., and Mishkin, F. 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WP/95/8. Samkharadze, B. (2008) Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Georgia: Analyzing Pass-Through of Different Channels. Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), mimeo. Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48, 1. Walsh, C. (1998). The natural rate, NAIRU, and monetary policy. FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep 18. 60 Journal of Economic and Social Studies � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2375 Title A name given to the resource Channels of Monetary Transmission in the CIS: a Review Author Author Huseynov, Emin Rustam, Jamilov Abstract A summary of the resource. Twenty years have passed since the breakdown of the Soviet Union, and it is time to draw a concluding line for monetary policy efficiency in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). We propose a comprehensive treatment of the subject for nine members of the CIS for the period of 2000-2009. Four transmission channels are investigated: interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, bank lending channel, and monetary channel. First, we design a Vector Auto Regression framework for each CIS member-state and investigate the short-run dynamics of the impact of each of the four transmission channels on domestic output and inflation. Second, we construct Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Models (ARDL) in order to study the country-wise efficiency of transmission channels in the long run. Finally, we employ a panel data fixed effects method to show how the CIS behaves as a region. Our short-run individual country analysis yields highly heterogeneous results. In the long run, however, it’s apparent that broad monetary base (M2) is the most influential determinant of aggregate output. Inflation is affected the most by the refinancing rate and the flow of remittances. For both output and inflation, exchange rate plays a role of a supporting channel. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-03-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/08c7e7466fa53c8c1abc8cd35f270cb8.pdf ea117e3617978c832e4cca2be44db842 PDF Text Text Charter Schools M. Uğur Türkyılmaz International Burch University English Language Department Bosnia and Herzegovina uturkyilmaz@ibu.edu.ba Abstract: Charter school movement in the USA: Would that be a new school model for the world? In this presentation, the charter school movement in the USA will be highlighted based on the questions below: Is there a Constitution article for charter schools? What is the legal status of charter schools in other states and in Wisconsin? Who can apply? Who can grant a charter? What degree of freedom do the charter schools have? How are the charter schools funded? What is the historical background of the charter schools? What does Instrumentality and Non-instrumentality mean? What is their current status? What is the impact and implications of charter schools for other schools? Key words: Charter, school funding, choice schools, hybrid schools Is There A Constitution Article For Charter Schools? “The sanctity of such charters was guaranteed as a constitutionally protected interest under the Obligation of Contracts provision of U.S Constitution.” (Alexander, Alexander, 2001) “Charter schools are public, nonsectarian schools created through a businesslike “contract or charter” between the operators and the sponsoring school board or other chartering authority.” (DPI, website). Actually, charter schools are public schools. That is why they are exempt from most state laws but not from the federal laws. The biggest difference between a public charter school and a regular public school is the existence of a very specific contract between the charter granting authority and the person(s) opening the charter school. The contract is spelling out the requirements the charter school needs to meet at the end of the charter term, which is usually five years. What Is The Legal Status Of Charter Schools In Other States And In Wisconsin? “The most obvious and direct federal involvement in charter schools comes through the Federal Charter School Grant Program, initially authorized by Congress in 1994. Legislation creating a federal start-up grant program was originally proposed in 1992 by Senators Dave Durenberger (R-MN) and Joseph Lieberman (D-CN). It has also consistently attracted bi-partisan support in the U.S. House of Representatives. The program provides competitive grants to states, which, in turn, make grants to individual charter schools. Grants can be used for both planning and start-up expenses of charters. A new program authorized in 1998 also gives states the option of making "Dissemination Grants" to more established schools to help start new charters and to spread their experience and best practices to other charters and to district public schools. ”(Charter School National Network, 2003) “No two states’ charter school laws are the same.” (Odden, Bush 1998) There is no one right way of doing things. Charter schools are certainly another fruit of the fertile educational system in the States. Wisconsin: ‰ “The original law was passed by the state in 1993 (Assembly bill 631). In June 18, 1998, Wisconsin Act 238 (1997) changed charter school law. In 1997, the state legislature made another revision to the law. This revision gave chartering authority to the Chancellor of the University of WisconsinMilwaukee (UWM), to the Milwaukee Area Technical College (MATC), and to the Common Council of the City of Milwaukee. ‰ In 1998, the state legislature made additional changes to the law, allowing a district to contract with a cooperative educational agency (CESA) to operate a charter school as long as it is located within the CESA. 161 �‰ ‰ ‰ Another change requires that a school board receiving a petition to establish a charter school or to convert a nonsectarian private school must hold a public hearing on the matter and must consider the fiscal impact of the decision. The changes that occurred in 1999-2001Biennial Budget revolved around Milwaukee per pupil aids and state assessments. In the 2001-2003 budget bill, limited chartering authority was granted University of WisconsinParkside.”(Wisconsin State Summary, 2003) Who Can Apply? “In some states, only public schools can apply for charter status; in others, groups of teachers or citizens, universities, and even regional education organizations can apply for a charter.” (Odden, Bush 1998). Wisconsin: ‰ “Any person”: an individual, partnership, association, or political or corporate body can operate a charter school. ‰ Prohibits a school board from entering into a contract that would convert a private, sectarian school into a charter school. This new law applies to Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) as well: MPS formerly was allowed this option. “(Odden, Bush 1998). Who Can Grant A Charter? “States have created different entities for granting charters; in some states, only school boards grant charters, in others, the state grants charters; in some cases, both the state and the local school board must approve the charter”. (Odden, Bush 1998). The variety of charter school issuing agencies in state laws is also another reflection of how diversity is emphasized in this culture. It might be beneficial to take look at the achievement differences, if there is, when the granting authority is state or the local school board. Ohio legislation has changed its charter school law in the last year. Previously, Ohio was both issuing and sponsoring the charter schools. This was regarded as a kind of “conflict of interest”. After a lot of criticism that the state should not be both the money-provider and the sponsor, the state asked all the charter schools to find a sponsor. In that way, an independent local authority will audit the schools. Now, many schools are in a hurry to find a sponsor in one year, or they will go out of business. Wisconsin: ‰ The legislation allowed the Milwaukee Area Technical College, MPS, the University of WisconsinMilwaukee, and Milwaukee's Common Council to authorize or operate charter schools in the city of Milwaukee. ‰ With the exception of Milwaukee, as established in Wisconsin's original 1993 charter school law, the local school board remains the only entity that can grant a charter for a period of one to five years. ‰ Schools authorized by these government entities receive the shared state aid, currently at $5,600 per pupil. ‰ The state has the final approval for a charter school. ‰ “The state sets a statutory limit on the number of charter schools allowed in operation at any given time. The state simply receives the charter school application and approves them at the state level unless the state limit on the number of charter schools would be exceeded.” ‰ No appeal. “(Odden, Bush 1998). What Degree Of Freedom Do The Charter Schools Have? “In some states, the waiver of the state rules and regulations is automatic and wholesale, while in others, individual charter schools have to specifically request each proposed waiver.” (Odden, Bush 1998). This freedom is the greatest reason why charter schools are like private schools. Why do people choose charter schools? One of the important reasons charter schools will provide a better education for their children. (Manhattan Institute, 2003) 162 �Now the states are creating their own private schools with only one difference. Charter schools cannot charge tuition. Being independent from the state law is also attracting a lot of public schools. Most charter schools are converted from regular public schools. Wisconsin: ‰ “Charter schools in Wisconsin are exempt from most state requirements regarding public education. However, teachers in charter schools must be licensed by the DPI. ‰ Charter schools are not exempt from federal laws governing regular or special education or civil rights policies, nor are they exempt from local school board policies unless negotiated in the contract. This last provision does not pertain to the non-instrumentality charter schools. ‰ A charter school cannot charge tuition and must be equally accessible to all students in the district. ‰ Nonresident students may enroll in a district and be assigned to a charter school under the Wisconsin public school open enrollment program ‰ Charter schools may not discriminate on the basis of sex, race, religion, national origin, ancestry, pregnancy, marital status, sexual orientation, or physical, mental, emotional, or learning disability. ‰ Attendance at a charter school must be voluntary, and the district must provide alternative public education for pupils who do not wish to attend the charter school or who are not admitted to the charter school.” (Wisconsin State Summary, 2003) How Are The Charter Schools Funded? “Some states finance charter schools directly, some require charter schools to negotiate the budget with the local board, and some –Arkansas, Georgia, and Kansas- do not even address funding!” (Odden, Bush 1998). Charter schools are the prototypes of the school-based financing system model. “It (charter schools) places great store in the importance of competition improving the quality of schools.” (Alexander, Alexander, 2001) With a serious rival, other public schools would be forced to be competitive. The race is based on equal terms at least in terms of finance. All public schools are paid the same amount per-pupil state aid. The real difference is with the way the charter schools spend their money. As they are intended to be a model of school-based financing system, the state aid is paid in a lump sum. They spend their money the way they want to. Most charter schools are established by teachers or parents. Wisconsin: ‰ Funding is not specified in the law. It is negotiated locally between the charter school and school district (there is a maximum per-pupil funding level, which is set by law, though) How Does Wisconsin Do Overall In Dealing With Its Charter Schools? A recent report assessing the states’ performances in opening charter schools rated Wisconsin’s as B-. In the study, 13 states are graded B, 7 states graded C, and 3 states graded C. “Based on scores of 56 criteria, Wisconsin earned a C for its policy environment, a B for authorizer practices, B- for charter school support, B- for application processes, B+ approval processes, and B for oversight and renewal revocation processes. Overall, Wisconsin’s charter school system, although complex, rates rather well. However, support and external accountability for authorizers are lacking. Policymakers are advised to carefully review the criterion-based scores for that category.” (Palmer, Gau, 2003) What Is The Historical Background Of The Charter Schools? The first charter school was established in Minnesota, in 1991. “During the five years from 1991 to 1996, twenty six states enacted charter school laws and many other states debated charter school legislation.” (Odden, Bush 1998) There are various reasons why charter schools have flourished so rapidly in the last decade. Just like choice and voucher programs, charters provide a choice for the parents who are not happy with the regular public schools. 163 �“Wisconsin charter school law was established with an authorization for 1o school districts to establish up to two charter schools for a total of twenty in the state wide. Thirteen charter schools were created under this law. In 1995, revisions to that first charter school law gave permission to all school boards statewide and eliminated the cap on the total number of charter schools. ” (Wisconsin State Summary, 2003) “Charter schools are gaining momentum in the city of Milwaukee. From a modest beginning of less than 200 students in three schools in 1998-1999 school year, they have grown in five years to include 11,497 students in 31 different schools. Statewide 19,005 students are enrolled in 129 different charter schools. of this total, 60% are charter school students in Milwaukee. The pace of charter school is evidenced by the edition of seven new charter schools this fall and 2,055 students. Today charter school surpasses the enrolment in Milwaukee private school voucher program by 816 students, the chapter 220 program by 6,813 students, and the open enrollment program by 10,265.” (Public Policy Forum, 2002) Parents, complaining a lot about the ineffectiveness of the public schools once, are encouraged to start their own schools. “A year ago, Mimi Rothschild burst on the scene with an idea so grand and irresistible to parents disgruntled with public schools that it propelled her to the forefront of educational reform in Pennsylvania. Rothschild, who has no background in education, set out to open the biggest cyber school in Pennsylvania, if not the nation, where thousands of students could learn at home, at any time, with a click of a mouse.”(Hirsch, 2002) Then, they see things are not as easy as they seem to! Another great privilege that most charter schools have is that they are exempt from many of the state law; bureaucracy. People who establish charter schools love this freedom and try to create very different schools than regular public schools. If you are a non-instrumentality charter school, you may even hire your own staff. That freedom is crucial in the success of the charters, as they do not have to get stuck with ineffective administrators or teachers. Most of them offer a one-year contract. What Does Instrumentality And Non-Instrumentality Mean? “When a charter school is and instrumentality of the district, it can best be viewed as attached to the district.” (Wisconsin Charter School Center, 1999) Thus, we can simple infer the meaning of non-instrumentality as a school not part of a district. “Teachers in "non-instrumentality" charter schools are not district employees and are eligible to negotiate as a separate unit with charter school governing body, or work independently.”(CER, 2002) “One attorney described it as an arm of the district, with many of the policies and procedures affecting the district flowing through to the charter school.” (Wisconsin Charter School Center, 1999) Some other major elements of instrumentality charter schools in Wisconsin are listed in the article as: 1. “The employees remain the employees of the district. 2. “Teachers will keep whatever benefits they get as a result of their contract. Also, teachers will retain their access to the Wisconsin Retirement System, they get pension.” 3. “Unless it has been otherwise negotiated in the teacher’s bargaining agreement or through a memorandum of understanding, teachers in charter schools will be treated like other schools in the district around the issues of seniority.” 4. “The school board has the authority to determine which of its policies and procedures apply to charter school. This should be outlined in the contract between the charter school and the district.” 5. “Charter schools are waived from all but a handful of the statues regulating the schools. These include the rules about the number of minutes courses must meet and the number of days school must meet. Additionally, charter schools gain flexibility in terms of graduation requirements. They also gain some flexibility in teacher license requirements, similar to that of the provisional license.” 6. “Charter schools waived from the statues around issues of student health, safety and privacy. Additionally, state law does not and cannot waive charter schools from federal laws that apply to K-12 schools. .” (Wisconsin Charter School Center, 1999) What is Their Current Status? “When charter schools came onto the education scene in the early 1990s they were viewed as a reform that could turn traditional public schooling on its head.”(Public Policy Forum, 2002) Are they there yet? Are they now a model for all other public schools? It is too soon to draw conclusions. But still in a very short period of time, they have at least proved that some things might be better if there is more autonomy. (Manhattan Institute, 2003) 164 �There are now 2,874 charter schools all over the nation. 400 new charter schools added in 2002-2003. (CER, 2002). Statewide 19,005 students are enrolled in 129 in different charter schools. Of this total, 60% are charter schools in Milwaukee. Considering the fact that each year 400 hundred charters are added, one day the market will be saturated, become wary of this new experiment and look for different possibilities. (CER, 2002). Virtual charter schools are now in the game. They are collecting more and more students from different districts. Just like home schooling, students who would like to stay away from buildings, they opt for other options. “Less than two weeks before the deadline, Wisconsin Virtual Academy - set to open this fall in a small, rural district in northern Ozaukee County - has more than 300 confirmed students who are coming from more than 100 districts around the state.” (Davis, 2003) People, who actually do not want to be taught by a teacher, will enjoy their computer screen. But is this just another student trick to get away from their responsibilities? Time will tell. “At last count some 30 cyber charter schools have already been established in 12 states.” (National Association of States Board of Education, 2001) Although there are very few cyber schools in operation, they are already a big controversial issue. Advocates for home-schoolers are suing the districts opening charter schools. They argue that there is no legal basis to open a cyber charter school. Charter school advocates claim that “The Department of Education holds the position that cyber schools are permitted under Act 22 of 1997, our charter school law.” There are two cyber schools in Wisconsin: Wisconsin Virtual Academy and Wisconsin Connections Academy. “Wisconsin Virtual Academy has 275 confirmed new students for next year and 653 approved applications. Wisconsin Virtual Academy - set to open this fall in a small, rural district in northern Ozaukee County - has more than 300 confirmed students who are coming from more than 100 districts around the state. Applications from some 600 more were pending after receiving preliminary approval.”(Davis, 2003) Considering the fact that cyber schools are collecting students from all the districts in their states, more and more entrepreneurs would knock on the department of education’s to submit their applications. “As of October 2002, there are 194 closures which is 6.7% of the 2874 schools ever given charters. The percent includes the schools that gained the charter school status but never opened, schools were actually consolidated back to the districts and remain open.” (CER, 2002). The report is a good analysis of why charter schools have been closed. It underlines that some of the closures are also because of districts. “Some groups, such as local school districts, and other in educational establishment that were threatened by these groups, are working to push them back. Why? Sadly, the closures are because most people do not like change, especially if that changes the affects one’s livelihood.” (CER, 2002). If a charter school gets closed because of poor academic results and therefore not meeting the contract requirements that would show what real accountability is all about. The real problem is when charter schools are shut down despite academic achievement, student and parental satisfaction and community support. People who support “status quo” have always been and will always be. Like Dr. Fuller said, “in this country there is no way you can change things without controversy.” (Alverno, 2003) What Is The Impact And Implications Of Charter Schools For Other Schools? If competition has anything to do with success, charter schools are challenging to regular public schools and private schools. The challenge is not just felt by the public schools but also by other choice schools and private schools. “ Today charter school surpasses the enrolment in the Milwaukee private school voucher program by 816 students, the chapter 220 program by 6813 students and the open enrollment program by 10.265” (Public Policy Forum, 2002) The pattern of growing numbers in student enrolment is, naturally, a big concern for regular public schools and private schools. Schools that lose their students to other programs have two options. They either reduce their staff or find more students. In order to keep your current student body or to have more students, you need to build up a good reputation in your neighborhood. Parental satisfaction is the key factor in student retention. As charter schools are tuition-free, parents who want to save up to thousands of dollars a year may choose to send their children to quality charter schools. Parents, who are dissatisfied with the performance of their children 165 �in the regular public schools and cannot afford private school tuitions, choose charters. Small classroom sizes and innovative curriculum are top reasons that attract parents. They all result in the increase of student numbers in charter schools. “ There are 11.497 students enrolled in Milwaukee charter schools in 2002-2003, a 21.8% increase from the number of students 9,442 attended charter schools in 2001-2002” (Public Policy Forum, 2002) Given that, it is still important to know that the number of students in charter schools is just 2.2% of the total student population in Wisconsin. That clearly proves that regular public schools are still the main education providers. It is believed that charter schools should stay as model schools that others can get inspired. They should keep trying new methods to improve the student achievement. It is also acceptable to fail now and then. People all learn from mistakes, sometimes even more than what they do right. One important criticism that charter schools receive is that they are getting more white students than African American since they are selective. “The Civil Rights Project at Harvard University (CRP) announces a new study of segregation patterns in the nation’s charter schools. “Charter Schools And Race: A Lost Opportunity For Integrated Education” by Erica Frankenberg and Chungmei Lee.”(The civil Rights Project, 2003) According to a research on charter schools in Milwaukee area, the district has 60% of student population is black and the number is 61% in charter schools. (Public Policy Forum, 2002) “ Whatever the condition of charter school, however, it is clear that, when compared with the failure of traditional public schools, charter schools are more likely to deliver on their promise providing an atmosphere that breed student achievement.” (CER, 2002) References Palmer, Louann, Gau, P. Rebecca. (2003). Charter School Authorizing: Are States Making the Grade? Washington, DC: Thomas B. Fordham Institute Charter School National Network. Charter Friends Initiative- on –Federal Legislation and Policy: retrieved July25, 2003 from: http://www.charterfriends.org/fedpolicy/cfi-fedpolicy8.html Davis, Anne (2003) Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Virtual Academy Gets As Many As 900 Students retrieved July25, 2003, from: http://www.jsonline.com/news/State/may03/143452.asp Hirsch, Melanie. (2002). Internet Schooling: Cyber http://www.psrn.org/Cyber%20schools/mcall%20internet%20schooling.html school is cautionary tale Odden, Allan, Bush, Carolyn. (1998). Financing Schools For High Performance. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass Alexander, Kern, Alexander, M. David (2001). American Public School Law. Belmont CA: Wadsworth West –Group Forster, Greg, Green P. Jay. (2003) Apples to Apples: An Evaluation of Charter Schools Serving General Student Populations. Manhattan Institute Public Policy Forum (2002). The Research Brief: MPS Charter Schools Outperform City and UWM, Milwaukee Volume 90, Number 10 The Center for Education Reform. (2002). Charter schools today: Changing the face of American education. Washington DC The Civil Rights Project. (2003). Study Finds That Nation's Charter Schools Are Places Of Racial Isolation Cambridge, MA Wisconsin Charter School Resource Center. (1999). Understanding Instrumentality Charter Schools in Wisconsin: Briefing Paper. Wisconsin Wisconsin State Summary. (2003) History of Charter School Law http://www.dpi.state.wi.us/dpi/dfm/sms/pdf/023yrbk1.pdf 166 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 380 Title A name given to the resource Charter Schools Author Author Türkyılmaz, M. Uğur Abstract A summary of the resource. Charter school movement in the USA: Would that be a new school model for the world? In this presentation, the charter school movement in the USA will be highlighted based on the questions below: Is there a Constitution article for charter schools? What is the legal status of charter schools in other states and in Wisconsin? Who can apply? Who can grant a charter? What degree of freedom do the charter schools have? How are the charter schools funded? What is the historical background of the charter schools? What does Instrumentality and Non-instrumentality mean? What is their current status? What is the impact and implications of charter schools for other schools? Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed L Education (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/48299c83ce8bdc378d04a48c4607968a.docx 3c5e979d505ac3b93bc9a5c04ebad39a https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ec52b1c0634399e1acaffeec587366a5.pdf 8e83f90eecb78d623e42365e058b405d PDF Text Text Child Trafficking for Organ Transplantation and Law Enforcement Failure in Albania MirelaAlhasani (Dubali) Epoka University Albania malhasani@epoka.edu.al Alba Gerdeci Epoka University Albania agerdeci@epoka.edu.al Abstract: Trafficking in minors for sexual and labor exploitation, and, mostly for organs transplantation has grown globally over the last few years. The profits of child trafficking generate billions of dollars. Various researches have acknowledged child trafficking has a human rights issue: the trafficked minors are deprived of their rights to life, equality in education, dignity and security. Some governments have been coping with child trafficking as an organized crime issue where children are kidnapped, ‘sold like market products’, coerced and exploited to street begging, and definitely, the worst scenario of being ‘slaughtered’ for organ transplantation criminal networks. Unfortunately, Albania as a fragile non-consolidated democracy has become predominately a country of origin of child trafficking for lucrative criminal targets. Our study will argue that this growing phenomenon in Albania is directly related and accelerated by the ‘pure failure’ of the justice system. It will demonstrate by comparison and contrast of the textual analysis of the academic and empirical data that politics with its powerful network have captivated the police system and paralyzed the judicial institutions. Drawing on the root causes that make children prey of the non-functioning of the judicial system, and then assessing the investigative units’ incompetence to trace the victims and their perpetrators, this research will offer a multidimensional picture of the Albanian child trafficking case noting its peculiarities in connection with the political transition profile of the country itself. Finally, we finalize with recommendations on improving the policing capacities to identify and catch criminals, with judicial reform to clean up the corrupt judges and install the professional judicial system built upon international standards. This will turn a contribution to policymakers in Albania, to specialized units dealing with child trafficking, to nongovernmental sectors, to the institutional reforming attempts and challenges of the country to end up political transition and consolidate the rule of law to its population and in particular to the most vulnerable group, - the children. Keywords: child trafficking, organ transplantation, failure of law 23 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2453 Title A name given to the resource Child Trafficking for Organ Transplantation and Law Enforcement Failure in Albania Author Author ALHASANI, Mirela GERDECI, Alba Abstract A summary of the resource. Trafficking in minors for sexual and labor exploitation, and, mostly for organs transplantation has grown globally over the last few years. The profits of child trafficking generate billions of dollars. Various researches have acknowledged child trafficking has a human rights issue: the trafficked minors are deprived of their rights to life, equality in education, dignity and security. Some governments have been coping with child trafficking as an organized crime issue where children are kidnapped, ‘sold like market products’, coerced and exploited to street begging, and definitely, the worst scenario of being ‘slaughtered’ for organ transplantation criminal networks. Unfortunately, Albania as a fragile non-consolidated democracy has become predominately a country of origin of child trafficking for lucrative criminal targets. Our study will argue that this growing phenomenon in Albania is directly related and accelerated by the ‘pure failure’ of the justice system. It will demonstrate by comparison and contrast of the textual analysis of the academic and empirical data that politics with its powerful network have captivated the police system and paralyzed the judicial institutions. Drawing on the root causes that make children prey of the non-functioning of the judicial system, and then assessing the investigative units’ incompetence to trace the victims and their perpetrators, this research will offer a multidimensional picture of the Albanian child trafficking case noting its peculiarities in connection with the political transition profile of the country itself. Finally, we finalize with recommendations on improving the policing capacities to identify and catch criminals, with judicial reform to clean up the corrupt judges and install the professional judicial system built upon international standards. This will turn a contribution to policymakers in Albania, to specialized units dealing with child trafficking, to non-governmental sectors, to the institutional reforming attempts and challenges of the country to end up political transition and consolidate the rule of law to its population and in particular to the most vulnerable group, - the children. Keywords: child trafficking, organ transplantation, failure of law Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-04-24 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e91eea59bab51e251a2ca8410941750b.docx bddfcff711e1df1a2b1e6dbc631963ca https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/5cbabec32473d679ea197e284b059edf.pdf 6d0d68c862f01cdc09a3ae8de6d42be3 PDF Text Text CİNÂNÎ DÎVÂNI’NDA ŞİKÂYET Vildan ÖZMEN Sakarya Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Türk Dili ve Edebiyatı, Sakarya / Türkiye Anahtar Kelimeler: Klasik Türk Edebiyatı, Cinânî Divanı, şikâyet, mizah. ÖZET Klasik Türk şiirinde en çok işlenen konulardan biri de şikâyettir. Divan şairleri, kendi yaşadıkları sorunların yanı sıra çevresinde yaşanan aksaklıkları şiirleri aracılığıyla sıkça dile getirmiştir. Çalışmamızda 16. yüzyıl divan şairi Cinânî’nin divanına bu açıdan yaklaşılmış ve şiirlerini şikâyet unsuru bakımından değerlendirilmiştir. Daha çok mizah ve mübalağanın ağır bastığı şiirlerde yer alan şikâyet unsurlarını tespit edilmiş bu şikâyetlerin nedenleri ortaya koyulmaya çalışılmıştır. Böylelikle çalışmamızın, şairin yaşadığı dönemin özellikleri ile sosyal ve ekonomik hayatına dair bilgilere bir katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir. � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6d457ef531a5746a7305db0d2bfa588c.docx d727e5b65cb1398eb82df9838e87923f https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/0a1b91c789f113367c6434d1903b2c5c.pdf e84eb1253defb16b5c3b8a0c34e1335d PDF Text Text CİNÂNÎ DÎVÂNI’NDA ŞİKÂYET VİLDAN ÖZMEN Özet Klasik Türk şiirinde en çok işlenen konulardan biri de şikâyettir. Divan şairleri, kendi yaşadıkları sorunların yanı sıra çevresinde yaşanan aksaklıkları şiirleri aracılığıyla sıkça dile getirmiştir. Çalışmamızda 16. yüzyıl divan şairi Cinânî‟nin divanına bu açıdan yaklaşacak ve şiirlerini şikâyet unsuru bakımından değerlendireceğiz. Daha çok mizah ve mübalağanın ağır bastığı şiirlerde yer alan şikâyet unsurlarını tespit ederek bu şikâyetlerin nedenlerini ortaya koymaya çalışacağız. Böylelikle çalışmamızın, şairin yaşadığı dönemin özellikleri ile sosyal ve ekonomik hayatına dair bilgilere bir katkı sağlayacağı düşüncesindeyiz. Anahtar Kelimeler: Klasik Türk Edebiyatı, Cinânî Divanı, şikâyet, mizah COMPLAINT IN THE CİNÂNÎ’S DÎVÂN Abstract Complaint is the one of the most common subject in the Classical Ottoman Poetry. By through their poems, Ottoman poets uttured not only the problems they had but also the problems occured in the society. In our study, we will approach Cinânî in this respect who was the 16 th century Ottoman poet and we will evaluate his poems in terms of complaint element. We will try to put up the reasons of these complaints that are especially in his humour and hyperbole poems. Thus, We think our study will contribute more information about the features of life and social and economic conditions of society in the period of our poet. Key Words: Classical Ottoman Poetry, Cinânî‟s Divan, complaint, humour  Sakarya Üniversitesi Sos. Bil. Ens. Türk Dili ve Edebiyatı Bölümü Doktora Öğrencisi, ozmenvildan@hotmail.com �1 Giriş Klasik Türk şiirine yönelik eleştirilerin çoğu hayata ve gerçeklere karşı ilgisizliği, halktan uzak oluşu, dönemini yansıtmayışı şeklindeki genel değerlendirmeler üzerinedir.(Özdemir, 2010:337-375) Türk kültürü ve tarihi açısından çok zengin bir kaynak oluşturan divan şiirini toplum hayatından uzak, soyut bir şiir olarak eleştirmek doğru bir değerlendirme olmaz. Şair için dış dünyadaki her türlü olay, durum, olgu kendi iç dünyasını anlatabilmesine birer somut örnektir. Şair kendi dışındaki çevreye duygu ve düşüncelerini somutlaştıran bir araç gözüyle bakar. (Dilçin, 1999:295) Şairin de içinde bulunduğu beşer türü; psikolojik ve ahlâki özellikleriyle refah, mutluluk gibi olumlu koşulları yaşamın gereklerinden sayar ve herhangi bir sıkıntı veya musibete uğradığında şikâyet etmeye başlar. Çoğu şairde bulunan bu psikolojik ve ahlâki özelliklerin yanında, şikâyet şiirlerinin oluşumunda siyasal ve sosyal faktörlerin de etkisi vardır.(Çiftçi, 2002:59) Dönemini, döneminin yaşamını, çeşitli yönlerden yansıtan aynı zamanda sosyal tarih için de malzeme sağlayacak nitelikte olan şikâyet şiirleri içerdikleri bireysel ve sosyal şikâyetler nedeniyle divan şiirinin toplumdan kopuk olmadığını göstermesi bakımından önemlidir. (Batislam, 2009: 84) Divanlarda farklı nazım şekilleriyle yazılmış şiirlerde şikâyet, hiciv, eleştiri içeren oldukça fazla beyit karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Şairler, çeşitli nazım biçimleriyle yazılmış manzum arz-ı hâllerde, hasb-ı hâllerde, kasidelerde, latifelerde, mesnevilerde, tezkirelerde şikâyetlerinden söz etmişlerdir. Şiirlerin büyük bölümünde zamandan, felekten, içinde bulunulan durumdan şikâyet beyitleri vardır. Şikâyet konulu şiirlerin hepsinde şairlerin, içinde bulundukları ekonomik ve sosyal koşullarla ya da yaşadıkları başka sorunlarla ilgili şikâyetlerini dile getirerek yardım istemeleri dikkati çekmektedir. (Batislam, 2009:1-4) Birçok divan şairinin şiirlerinde karşımıza çıkan “şikâyet” duygusuna çalışmamıza esas aldığımız Cinânî Divanı1‟nda da sıkça rastlamaktayız. Osmanlı‟nın en parlak çağını yaşadığı 16.yy nin divan şairlerinden olan Cinânî, diğer divan şairleri gibi yaşadığı devrin siyâsi, sosyal gelişmelerinden uzak kalmamıştır. Cinânî, hem şiir kabiliyeti hem latifeleri hem de devlet büyükleriyle ilişkileri ile devrinde değer görmüş bir şairdir. Ancak şiirlerinde şikâyet unsurunun sık kullanılması durumu, onun pek de rahat olmayan bir hayat sürdüğünü göstermektedir. (Okuyucu, 1994:IIIIV) Şiirlerinde diğer divan şairlerinde görülen klasik şikâyetlerin yanı sıra değişik şikâyetlere de rastlamaktayız. Şair; kendisine sıkıntı veren, hoşuna gitmeyen olay ve durumlar 1 Okuyucu, Cihan, (1994), Cinânî Hayatı ve Eserleri Divanının Tenkidli Metni, Ankara, TDK Yayınları. �2 karşısındaki tavrını gerek şikâyet başlıklı şiirlerinde gerekse beyit parçalarında dile getirmiştir. Bu şikâyetlerin temelinde yardım istemek, muhatabı etkilemek, sanat kaygısı gibi amaçlar bulunduğunu söyleyebiliriz. Şiirlerinde tespit ettiğimizi şikâyetleri şu başlıklar altında toplamak mümkündür: 1.Felekten, bahttan, tâlihten şikâyet Divan şiirinde çarh, sipihr, gerdûn gibi kelimeleri karşılayan felek, yıldızların insan talihine etki ettiği inancına bağlı olarak her türlü kötülüğün ve uğursuzluğun nedeni sayılmıştır. Bu yüzden devamlı olarak şikâyet konusu edilmiştir. (Kurnaz, 1995:306) Felekten, talihten memnuniyetsizlik divânda çeşitli şekillerde karşımıza çıkar. Şair, felek kelimesine eğrilik, döneklik, alçaklık, aldatıcılık, zalimlik, gaddarlık gibi olumsuz özelliklerle çeşitli anlamlar yükleyerek ondan sürekli şikâyet eder. Tersine dönen uğursuz felek, şairin isteklerini bir türlü gerçekleştirmemiştir. Feleğin verdiği belalardan kurtulamayan şairin yüzü gülmemiştir. Halinden şikâyet ettiği bir şiirinde şair kendisini papağana benzeterek feleğin kendisine şeker yerine öldürücü zehir verip dilsiz ettiğini söyler: Şekker yirine semm-i helahîl verir felek Lâl olmasun mı tûtî-i tab„-ı suhen-güzâr (K 2/10) Felek tarlasına ektiği istek tohumunun zayi oluşundan yakınan şair, gam ve kederlerinin çokluğundan mutluluk yüzü görememiştir. Muradına ermesine mani olan felek verdiği üzüntülerle şairi mutsuz etmiştir: Tohm-ı murâdı zâyî„ idüp kişt-zâr-ı çarh Kendümde derd ü gam komadı zerrece safâ (K /16) Gam köşesinde geçim sıkıntısıyla huzursuz, uykusuz bir halde olan şairin inatçı talihi uykuya dalmıştır. Yoksulluktan huzuru kalmayan şair, talihinin kötü oluşundan şikâyet etmektedir: Ben künc-i gamda fakr ile bîdâr u bî-huzûr Ammâ gunûde hâb ile baht-ı sitîze-kâr (K 2/14) 2. Zamandan, zamâneden şikayet Şairler zaman zaman kendi dönemlerinde yapılan zulümlerden, düzensizliklerden ve suistimallerden şikâyet etmişlerdir.(Levend, 1984:303) İnsanların kişisel beklenti ve �3 kaygılarını toplum menfaatlerinin önüne taşımalarıyla görülmeye başlanan değişmeler, toplumun beklentileri doğrultusunda eleştirilmiştir. Cahil insanların toplumda itibar kazanmalarına karşılık, âlimlerin itibar görmemeleri, değerli olanların kıymetsizleşmesi gibi durumlar şairleri zamâneden şikâyete yöneltmiştir.(Kılıç, 2008:485) İnsanlara sıkıntı veren, derde düşüren acımasız zaman, hep alçak kimselere iltifat etmiştir. Cahiller makam sahibi olmuş, ilim sahipleri değer görmemiştir. Bu gibi sebepler pek çok şairin zamandan ve zamâneden şikâyet etmesine neden olmuştur. Hile ve büyü yapan bir kadına benzetilen zamana aldanmamak gerektiğini söyleyen Cinânî; zamanın güvenilir olmadığını, amacının her zaman aldatmak olduğunu ifade eder: Zen-i dehre Cinânî aldanma Kasdı hep mekr ile füsûne imiş (G 87/5) Zamandan şikâyet ettiği bir kasidesinde bu dünyanın, içinde çok nüktenin gizlendiği acayip bir dünya olduğunu söyler. Gülünde bile vefâ kokusu yoktur. Akıllıların hali harap haline gelmiş; cahiller sayısız mal edinmiştir. Faziletli insanlara düşen, ayıplanıp çekiştirilmek olmuştur. Hak etmeyenlere saygı gösterilip değer verilmiştir. Doğrular yerine batıl, yalan, boş şeyler kabul görmüştür: Bu cihân bir aceb cihân ancak Anda çok nükteler nihân ancak Yok gülinde ümîd-i bûy-ı vefâ Bülbüli hem-dem-i figân ancak Âkılun hâli zillet ile harâb Câhilün mâlı bî-kerân ancak Ehl-i fazluñ nasîbi âlemden Ta„ne vü levm-i hâsidân ancak Müstehakk olmayan be-nâm u azîz Niçe nâm ehli bî-nişân ancak Götürildi yakîn ü hakk-ı sarîh Söylenen bâtıl u gümân ancak (K /17) �4 3. Din adamlarından, devlet adamlarından şikâyet 16.yy ortalarına kadar dengeli bir devlet ve toplum düzenine sahip olan Osmanlı‟nın idari düzeninde bozulmalar çeşitli sebeplerle başlamış; rüşvet giderek yaygınlaşmış, görevler liyâkate göre verilmeyip câhil ve beceriksiz insanlar devleti işgal etmiş, ilim ve irfan değerini kaybedip meydan cahillere kalmıştı. Halka Allah korkusunu, çeşitli dini bilgileri öğretmesi gereken din adamları ise görevini unutup gevşeklik ve rehavet içine düşmüştü.(Yeniterzi, 2000) Devlet ve toplum yapısındaki bu tür bozulmalarla birlikte bazı şikâyetlerin ortaya çıkması kaçınılmaz bir durum olmuştur. Bu bozulmalardan olumsuz yönde etkilenen Cinânî, fazilet sahiplerinin makamına işin ehli olmayan, mertebeleri bile sorulmayan bilgisizlerin geçmesinden duyduğu rahatsızlığı şöyle dile getirir: Geçer cây-ı erbâb-ı fazla edânî Sorulmaz merâtib bilinmez makâdir (K /4) Hasbıhâlini anlattığı bir kıt‟asında bir süre geçimini kâtiplik yaparak sağladığını belirtir. Ancak burada karşılaştığı olumsuz durumlar, şairin görevini isteksiz yapmasına neden olmuştur. Kadılık görevi yapan kişilerin cahillikte ileri olduklarını ve kendisinin böyle aşağı kimselere köle gibi hizmet ederek saygı göstermek zorunda kaldığını ifade eder: Ben bendeyi bir müddet idi fakr u felâket Kılmışdı esîr-i elem-i kayd-ı kitâbet Nâ‟ib geçinen üstüme cehliyle geçerdi Olmışdı nevâ‟ib bana erbâb-ı niyâbet Hidmetler idüp bende-sıfat ben de iderdüm Her dûna efendi diyü envâ„-ı ri„âyet (Kıt‟a /12) Divan edebiyatının işlediği ana konularda biri de rind ve zâhid tipleridir. Zâhid; aşırı dindar görünen, hırslı, açgözlü, ikiyüzlü, biçimci, her türlü toplumsal baskıların savunucusu ve uygulayıcısı olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Divan şairi rindin ağzından bazen alaycı, bazen de isyan eden, öğüt veren bir dille zâhid insan tipini eleştirmiştir. (Mengi, 2000: 215-217) �5 Devrin bozulan siyâsî yapısı yanında ahlakî bozulmalar da Cinânî‟nin şiirlerinde sıkça değindiği konulardır. Şair; yaşadığı devirdeki sözde din adamlarının, vâizlerin, şeyhlerin görevlerini lâyıkıyla yerine getirmemelerini, samimiyetsiz oluşlarını eleştirir. Mescide gönülsüz giden âriflerin meyhaneye istekle gittiklerini, şehrin vâizinin halka doğruları söylemediğini, şeyhlerin ve sûfilerin kendi çıkarlarına göre davrandıklarını, halkı aldatmak için sakal ve tespihi kullandıklarını ifade eder: Mescide özr-i leng iden ârif Reh-i meyhâneye revân ancak Söylemez hakkı meyl ider halka Vâ„iz-i şehr bî-zebân ancak Şeyhler celb-i nef„a tâlibdür Sûfîler dahi hem-çünân ancak Rismân ile dâne-i tesbîh Dâne vü dâm-ı eblehân ancak Uzadur aldatmag içün halkı Rîşi pâ-bend-i ahmakân ancak(K /17) 4. Halinden, yoksulluktan, gamdan şikâyet Cinânî, divânının çeşitli yerlerinde hâlinden memnuniyetsizliğini dile getirmiştir. Dertlerinin artmasından ve bu dertlerini anlatacak bir dostunun olmamasından yakınan şairi sıkıntıları hücum ederek güçsüz bırakmıştır. Herkes safâ içinde mutluyken şair, gam akşamında sıkıntılı ve gönlü yaralı bir haldedir. Gam ateşinin dinmesine akarsu gibi akıttığı gözyaşları bile çare olmamıştır. Dert köşesinde zayıf ve dermansız bir halde inlemektedir: İller safâ-yı subh ile mesrûr u şâd idi Ben şâm-ı gamda bister-i mihnetde dil-figâr Teskîn-i âteş-i gama bir çâre olmadı Eşküm akardı gerçi ki mânend-i cûy-bâr �6 Künc-i gam içre tîre-dil ü tîre-tab„ olup Gam bisterinde nâle iderken zebûn u zâr (K /12) Divanda farklı nazım biçimleriyle yazılmış mizâhî beyitler bulunmaktadır. Cinânî, bu beyitlerde çeşitli konularındaki isteklerini mizahî bir anlatımla dile getirmiştir. Aslında mizahta temel amaç güldürme değil; kusurları ortaya koyarak dikkatleri çekme isteğidir. Mizah içerikli eserlerde yazar, abartma yoluyla gerçek dışı bir ortam oluşturur. Bu ortamdan hareketle okuyucuya gerçek ortamı vermeye çalışır. Yazarın oluşturduğu mizâhî form, okuyucunun zihninde şok etkisi yapmalıdır. Farklı renkler insan zihninde kendini hissettirdiği için ifade biçimi alışılagelenden farklı olmalıdır. (Çiftçi, 2002:41-42) Cinânî‟nin yoksulluğunu, perişân halini anlattığı iki kasidesindeki teşbîb bölümleri özellikle mizâhî yapısıyla dikkati çekmektedir. Giyecek elbisesinin olmayışını ve evinin harabeliğini anlattığı mizah ve mübalağa içeren bu kasidelerinin derininde yardım talebi, dikkati çekmek gibi sebepler bulunduğunu söyleyebiliriz. Sultan Murad‟a sunduğu kasidesinin teşbîb bölümünde evinin eski ve harap oluşunu tasvir ederek çektiği sıkıntılara dikkat çeker. Yoksulluğunu dile getirdiği bu şiirinde padişahtan dolaylı bir şekilde yardım ister. Şairin viran haldeki evini bela yağmurlarının seli öyle harap etmiştir ki bu evin içinde oturmak mümkün değildir. Evin içi fenâ ehlinin kesesi gibi boş, âşığın gönlü gibi elemlerle doludur. Yağmurun etkisiyle suyla dolan bu ev, dibi delinmiş bir kalyona benzemektedir. Evin çatısı yok gibidir. Öyle ki çatının deliklerinden geceleyin yıldızlar renk renk görülebilmektedir. Bu harap evi onarmak için borca giren şair, kapısına dayanan alacaklılarla her gün tartışmaktadır : Seyl-i bârân-ı belâ harâb itmişdür Müte„azzirdür o vîrânenün içinde sükûn Kîse-i ehl-i fenâ gibi derûnı hâlî Dil-i âşık gibi âlâm ile ammâ meşhûn … Altı yaş üsti açık mihneti çok râhatı yok Vay ne benzer ana bir dibi delinmiş kalyon … Sakfı ol denli delükdür ki giceyle bakıcak Âsumânun görinür kevkebi hep gûn-â-gûn �7 … Akçamız vir diyü hengâme ider dâyinler Kapıda her gün olur ceng-i mütûn ile kurûn (K /24) Diğer bir kasidesinin teşbîb bölümünde giydiği elbisenin tasvirini yaparak içinde bulunduğu perişan hali, yoksulluğu anlatmak ister. Elbisesinin eteğiyle yakası parçalanmaktan fark edilmeyecek bir haldedir. Bu elbiseyi sofraya peşkir yapmayı düşünür; fakat bu gam evinde sofra bile kurulmaz, yemek yenmez. Fakirlik derdinin dışında diğer bir derdi de giyecek doğru dürüst bir elbisesinin olmamasıdır. Beyaz renkli ve göz göz olan bu elbisenin içinde balık dursa balık ağı denilir. Bu elbiseyi giyip yürüdükçe üzerinden her tarafını yuva edinen böcek, bit ve pireler dökülür: Fark olınmaz etegiyle yakası çâkinden Ne yaka kaldı fenâ bulmadıg anda ne etek Peşkîr eyler idüm sofraya ammâ bilürem Sofra yok hücrede gam-hânede yinmez yiyecek Elem-i fakr ile bir özge belâdur çekerem Yırtılup her yiri ayrıldı dirîgâ çekerek … Ag durur rengi anuñ kendüsi hep göz gözdür Dâm-ı mâhî dir idüm tursa derûnında semek Geyicek her tarafından yürüdükçe dökülür Âşiyân itmiş anı kehle vü burgûs u böcek ( K /23) Şair kış mevsiminde yol masrafı istemek amacıyla halini arz eder. Ne elde bir şey vardır ne de yola çıkmaya takati vardır. Bir yandan değer kaygısı, bir yandan felek onu yoksulluk içinde bırakmıştır. Bunların yanında şairi kilosu da rahatsız etmektedir. Karnının yükünü çekmeye gücü yoktur. İstediği yere kendisini taşıyacak, çekecek bir atı bile yoktur. Bu ağır yükü atın bile çekemeyeceğini ve ancak filin çekebileceğini ifade eder: Lâzım oldı ki şitâ faslı idem azm-i sefer Harc idem elde ne kim var ise peydâ vü nihân �8 Elde yok nesne meger tengî-i fâka Tende yok azm-i sefer kılmaġa hem tâb u tüvân Bir yaña derd-i semen kıldı tenüm bî-tâkat Bir yaña fakru fenâ kıldı beni ser-gerdân … Oturursam turamam tursam eger oturamam Ol kadar oldı vücûdum üzrüme bâr-ı girân Meger Allah götüre çekmege kâdir degülem Şikemüm bârı beni eyledi deng ü hayrân … Bir atum yok ki çeküp zîr ü zeber tengî teng Taraf-ı menzil-i maksûda kılam atf-ı inân … Ester isterdi ki gönül gerçi ki at olmaz ise Filden gayrı beni çekmege yokdur dermân (K /22) Cinânî, başka bir kasidesinde, edepsizlik olduğunu bilse de inleyen gönlünün hikâyesini padişaha şikâyet etmek ister. Amacı yoksulluk derdinden neler çektiğini anlatmaktır. Şair, yoksulluktan dolayı ailesinin geçimini sağlayamadığını belirtir. Ramazan geldiğinde hava sıcaklığı artmıştır. Gece ne yiyip içeceğini düşünmekle günlerini geçirir. Baklava veya kadayıf yemeğe layıkken kuru bir lokmaya kalmıştır. Suyla doldurduğu karnı saka kabına dönmüştür. Aç olanlara kimsenin acımadığını, açlıktan ölse bile yardım etmeyeceğini belirtir: Pâdişâhum bilürin gerç olur sû-i edeb Bir nefes hâl-i dil-i zârı hikâyet kılayın Ne hikâyet gam-ı fakr ile neler çekdügümi İşigün hâkine fi‟l-cümle şikâyet kılayın … Bir fakîrem ki zebûn itdi beni ehl ü „ayâl Bilmezem terkin urup nice ferâgat kılayın … �9 Ramazân oldı havâ ıssı harâret gâlib Mümkin olmaz ki diyem def„-i harâret kılayın Rûze geldükçe bu fikr ile geçer her gün kim Gice yâ Rab ne yiyüp terk-i mecâ‟et kılayın Baklavalarla katâ‟if yemege lâyık iken Nice bir lokma-i yâbisle kanâ„at kılayın Şikemüm âb ile pür niteki meşk-i sakkâ Yinecek yok ki diyem câñumı râhat kılayın … Lîkin açlıkdan eger anda varan cân virse Rahm idüp kimse dimez anı ziyâfet kılayın ( K /64) 5. Sevgiliden şikâyet Divan şiirinin başkişisi olan sevgilinin özellikleri arasında acı ve ıstırap verici oluşu başta gelir. Cana kasteder, sebepsiz yere âşığa zulüm ve eziyet eder, merhametsizdir, sözünde durmaz. Felek, talih, zaman, rakip v.b. dışında sevgiliden de zulüm gören âşık/şair aklını yitirir, kan ağlar, dertle dolar; hasta, müptela, divâne olur. Söylediği şiirlerde de bu hallerini dile getirmekten usanmaz. (Pala, 1995:52,479) Âşığa ilgi göstermeyerek eziyet eden sevgili; onun aklını dağıtır, perişân eder. Âşıklarına naz ederek onların yalvarmalarına aldırmaz. Onlara şefkat göstermeyerek azarlar. Sevgilinin bu gibi olumsuz özellikleri âşık için şikâyet sebepleridir. Sevgili, âşığa verdiği ayrılık acısıyla can yakmaktadır. Âşık; sevgiliden buna bir son vermesini, bu kadar naz ve şivenin yeterli olduğunu dile getirir: Yandı dâġ-ı gam-ı hicrânuñ ile cân u ciger Şîve vü nâz ise ey serv-i ser-efrâz yeter ( G 69/1) Güzellerin eskiden beri âdeti vefâsız olmalarıdır. Şair, sevgilinin vefâsızlığından şikâyet ederken bunun ezelden bu yana güzellerin âdeti olduğunu bilir ve bu yüzden sevgiliden vefâ beklemez: Vefâ itmek ne mümkin ahdine ol bî-vefâdan kim Ezelden eski âdetdür güzellerden vefâ gelmez. ( G 84/4) �10 Âşığın sevgiliden şikâyetçi olduğu konulardan biri de rakip dolayısıyladır. Hem aşk acısı hem sevgilinin derdini çeken âşığın başına bir de rakip belası gelmiştir. Sevgili, âşığına yüz vermez; rakiplerine ilgi gösterir. Sevgilinin bu davranışı âşığa acı verir: Bana yetmez mi gam-ı aşk ile dildâr elemi Ne belâdur bu benüm başuma agyâr elemi (G 280/1) Âşığın yakındığı durumlardan biri de sevgilinin merhametsiz oluşudur. Âşığın dermânı, merhametsiz sevgilinin dudağının şerbetidir. Ancak sevgili bir an bile âşığın hasta canına dermân olmamıştır: Rahm idüp bir dem ten-i bîmâra tîmâr itmedi Şerbet-i la„li iken âlemde dermânum benüm (G 154/2) Sonuç Divan edebiyatı sanıldığı gibi gerçeklerden uzak, toplum sorunlarına ilgisiz, soyut bir edebiyat değil; aksine toplumun hislerini yansıtan bir edebiyattır. Şairler hem kendi yaşadıkları sıkıntıları hem de toplumun yaşadığı siyasi ve sosyal hadiseleri divanlarındaki şiirlerinde çeşitli şekillerde dile getirmişlerdir. Çalışmamızda XVI. yüzyıl şairi Cinânî‟nin Dîvânı‟nda yer alan şikâyet konulu şiirler tespit edilerek belirli başlıklar halinde incelenmiştir. Cinânî, hem kendi yaşadığı olumsuzlukları, hayal kırıklıklarını hem de yaşadığı toplumu etkileyen sosyal ve siyasi hadiseleri şikâyet temalı şiirleriyle yansıtmıştır. Şiirler görünürde şikâyet amaçlı yazılsa da asıl amaç çeşitli isteklerin gerçekleşmesi, yardım talebi gibi nedenlerdir. Bu tür şiirlerin incelenmesi şairin hayata bakışının yanında toplumu ve dönemini yansıtması bakımından önemlidir. Kaynakça BATİSLAM, Hanife Dilek, (2009), Divanlardaki Şikâyet Şiirleri, Karahan Kitabevi, Adana. ÇİFTÇİ, Hasan, (2002), Klasik Fars Edebiyatında Hiciv ve Sosyal Eleştiri, Kültür Bakanlığı, Ankara. DİLÇİN, Cem, (1999), “Türk Kültürü Kaynağı Olarak Divan Şiiri”, Osmanlı Divan Şiiri Üzerine Metinler, İstanbul, YKY, s.295. KILIÇ, Zülküf, (2008), Türk Divan Şiirinde Sosyal Eleştiri, (Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi), Fırat Üniversitesi, Elazığ. �11 KURNAZ, Cemal, (1995), “Felek”, Türkiye Diyanet Vakfi İslam Ansiklopedisi, C.XII, İstanbul, s.306. LEVEND, Agâh Sırrı, (1984), Divan Edebiyatı Kelimeler ve Remizler Mazmunlar ve Mefhumlar, İstanbul, Enderun Kitabevi. MENGİ, Mine, (2000), Divan Şiiri Yazıları, Akçağ Yayınları, Ankara. OKUYUCU, Cihan, (1994), Cinânî Hayatı ve Eserleri Divanının Tenkidli Metni, Ankara, TDK Yayınları. ÖZDEMİR, Mehmet, (2010), II. Meşrutiyet‟ten Cumhuriyet‟e Divan Edebiyatı Tartışmaları, Timaş Yayınları, İstanbul. PALA, İskender, (1995), Ansiklopedik Divan Şiiri Sözlüğü, Ankara, Akçağ. YENİTERZİ, Emine, (2000), Divan Şiirinde Osmanlı Devletindeki Sosyal, İktisadi ve Ahlaki Çözülmenin Akisleri, Selçuk Üniversitesi, Uluslar arası Kuruluşunun 700. Yıldönümünde Bütün Yönleriyle Osmanlı Devleti Kongresi, 1999, Bildiriler, Konya. http://turkoloji.cu.edu.tr/ESKI%20TURK%20%20EDEBIYATI/yeniterzi.pdf,(erişim 12.05.2013) � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2259 Title A name given to the resource CİNÂNÎ DÎVÂNI’NDA ŞİKÂYET Author Author ÖZMEN, Vildan Abstract A summary of the resource. Anahtar Kelimeler: Klasik Türk Edebiyatı, Cinânî Divanı, şikâyet, mizah. ÖZET Klasik Türk şiirinde en çok işlenen konulardan biri de şikâyettir. Divan şairleri, kendi yaşadıkları sorunların yanı sıra çevresinde yaşanan aksaklıkları şiirleri aracılığıyla sıkça dile getirmiştir. Çalışmamızda 16. yüzyıl divan şairi Cinânî’nin divanına bu açıdan yaklaşılmış ve şiirlerini şikâyet unsuru bakımından değerlendirilmiştir. Daha çok mizah ve mübalağanın ağır bastığı şiirlerde yer alan şikâyet unsurlarını tespit edilmiş bu şikâyetlerin nedenleri ortaya koyulmaya çalışılmıştır. Böylelikle çalışmamızın, şairin yaşadığı dönemin özellikleri ile sosyal ve ekonomik hayatına dair bilgilere bir katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-17 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2203-4548 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8adae0354a87d72d6b508bf063d6f0a6.docx 6521f6b72329478f2e7c1fb4464b78d0 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d66efc6b919874b315e1bec167f23bfc.pdf 5818badc16e8e508f3701f3ac5221f93 PDF Text Text ÇİNCEDEN ESKİ UYGURCAYA TERCÜME EDİLEN METİNLERDEKİ PROBLEMLER ÜZERİNE Erdem UÇAR Gediz Üniversitesi, Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi, Türk Dili Ve Edebiyatı Bölümü, İzmir / Türkiye Anahtar Kelimeler: Uygurca, Budist Türk Edebiyatı, Tercüme. ÖZET Budist Türk edebiyatının en temel özelliklerinden biri, bu edebiyatın bir tercüme edebiyatı olmasıdır. Tercümeler, Hint dillerinden (Sanskritçe, Prākritçe), Toharcadan ve daha ziyade de Çinceden yapılmıştır. Bildirimizde, Çinceden tercüme edilen metinler ele alınmış ve Uygur mütercimlerin, eserleri nasıl tercüme ettikleri ve karşılaştıkları problemler incelenmiştir. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2319 Title A name given to the resource ÇİNCEDEN ESKİ UYGURCAYA TERCÜME EDİLEN METİNLERDEKİ PROBLEMLER ÜZERİNE Author Author UÇAR, Erdem Abstract A summary of the resource. Anahtar Kelimeler: Uygurca, Budist Türk Edebiyatı, Tercüme. ÖZET Budist Türk edebiyatının en temel özelliklerinden biri, bu edebiyatın bir tercüme edebiyatı olmasıdır. Tercümeler, Hint dillerinden (Sanskritçe, Prākritçe), Toharcadan ve daha ziyade de Çinceden yapılmıştır. Bildirimizde, Çinceden tercüme edilen metinler ele alınmış ve Uygur mütercimlerin, eserleri nasıl tercüme ettikleri ve karşılaştıkları problemler incelenmiştir. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-17 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2203-4548