240 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/74b4dfda8924dd41add7f122f6fe173f.pdf 43a22b9a7a07c402547b95783d072a41 PDF Text Text Keti VENTURA / Ipek KAZANCOGLU / Elif USTUNDAGLI / Rezan TATLIDIL the consumers’ willingness to reward. Psychology and Marketing, 25(6), 521-37. doi: 10.1002/mar.20224 Martineau, P. (1958). The personality of the retail store. Harvard Business eview, 36(1), 47–55. McClain, A. J. (1996). Hierarchical analytic methods that yield different perspectives on dynamics: aids to interpretation. In B. Thompson (Ed.), Advances in social science methodology, Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 4, 229-240. O’Cass, A. & Grace, D. (2008). Understanding the role of retail store service in light of self-image – store image congruence. Psychology & Marketing, 25(6), 521-537. doi: 10.1002/mar.20223 Journal of Economic and Social Studies The Role of Twin Deficits Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey Halil UCAL Adnan Menderes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Nazilli, Aydin, Turkey hucal@adu.edu.tr Orth, U. R., Limon, Y. & Rose, G. (2010). Store-evoked affect, personalities, and consumer emotional attachments to brands. Journal of Business esearch, 63, 1202 – 1208. doi: 10.1016/j. jbusres.2009.10.018 Paswan, Audhesh (2009), “Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Structural Equations Modeling: An Introduction” Seminer Notes, http://www.cob.unt.edu/slides/paswan/BUSI6280/CFASEM%20-%20Intro-May%2018%202009.ppt, Access Date: 5.10.2012 Punja, G. & Moon, J. (2002). Positioning options for achieving brand association a psychological categorization framework. Journal of Business esearch, 55, 275– 283. doi: 10.1016/S01482963(00)00165-X Mehmet BOLUKBAS Adnan Menderes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Nazilli, Aydin, Turkey mbolukbas@adu.edu.tr Sirgy, M.J. & Samli, A.C. (1985). A path analytic model of store loyalty involving self-concept, store image, socioeconomic status, and geographic loyalty. The Journal of the Academy of Marketing cience, 13(3), 265-291. doi: 10.1007/BF02729950 Sirgy, M.J., Grewal, D. & Mangleburg, T. (2000). Retail environment, self-congruity, and retail patronage: an integrative model and a research agenda. Journal of Business esearch, 49(2), 127-138. doi: 10.1016/S0148-2963(99)00009-0 Suhr D. (2006). Exploratory or Confirmatory Factor Analysis?. A onference. 31, SanFrancisco: SAS User’s Group:Paper #200. suers Group International Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI) (2011), urkey in tatistics 2011, Pub. No. 3592, Ankara. Wang, X. & Yang, Z. (2008). Does country-of-origin matter in the relationship between brand personality and purchase intention in emerging economies?. International Marketing eview, 25(4), 458–474. doi: 10.1108/02651330810887495 Wesley, S.C., Fowler, D.C., Vazquez, M.E. (2006) “Retail personality and the Hispanic consumer”, Managing Service Quality, 16 (2), 167-84 Yozgat, U. & Deniz, R. B. (2008). Specialty retailers in consumer electronics technology markets as a business model. Journal of Global trategic Management, 3, 114-116. Zentes, J., Morschett, D & Schramm-Klein, H. (2008). Brand personality of retailers – an analysis of its applicability and its effect on store loyalty. The International eview of etail, istribution and onsumer esearch, 1. doi: 10.1080/09593960701868282 Abstr ct In economics literature the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit is known as twin deficits hypothesis. The Keynesian Approach accepts a relationship between two deficits. In contrast to this, icardian quivalence Hypothesis defends there is no relationship between these two deficits. win deficits have become the subject of several studies to test which of these hypotheses are reliable but no consensus has been achieved. ome studies found a relationship from budget deficit to current account deficit but some of them had the opposite result. specially after 1980 it is known that many developed and developing countries encountered with this twin deficits problem. urkey also has the problem of twin deficits. Therefore, it is important to find whether there is causality between them and the direction of this causality. In this study the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit is examined by using Johansen ointegration Analysis. This study is based on period 1996:Q1-2011:Q4. According to results of cointegration; variable coefficients are statistically significant and consistent with what we expected in hypotheses. urrent account deficit ( A ) has a significant negative effect on budget deficit (B ). When there is a 1% increase in A , B decreases 0,12%. This finding is consistent with economic theory because according to Keynesian Approach two deficits have relationship with each other. However, in contrast to this approach, the direction is from A to B and also coefficient is negative. KEYWO D Budget eficit, urrent Account eficit, ustainable Growth, conometric Modelling, urkey A I LE HI O Y ubmitted: 5 ctober 2012 esubmitted: 18 ctober 2012 Accepted: 09 January 2013 JEL odes: H62, 32, 4 38 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 39 �Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS The Role of Twin Deficits Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey Introduction The twin deficits problem is referred to a situation where an economy is running both Current Account Deficit (CAD) and Budget Deficit (BD). According to Ricardian Equivalence CAD and BD are not correlated. Budget deficit is a result of tax cut which reduces public revenues and public saving (Alkswani, 2000). Decrease in public savings will be compensated by an increase in private saving. Therefore national saving will not be affected and the budget deficit will have no effect on the current trade deficit (Alkswani, 2000). On the other hand, according to Keynesian proposition the two deficits are linked and the direction is from BD to CAD. Because if there is a budget deficit, government has to borrow more and as a result the interest rates rise. The rise of interest rates leads inflow of money from abroad and then the local currency appreciates. The appreciation of currency results with increase in import and decrease in export. As a result, trade deficit increase and current account balance distorted. The twin deficits have started to become a problem with the beginning of the 1980’s in USA. Increase in military expenditures and decrease in income tax raised budget deficit. The increase in budget deficit caused increase in debt of US to the rest of the world and therefore caused distortion in balance of payments. After the global crisis in 2008, it is seen that not only in USA also in other developed and developing countries have the same macroeconomic problems. Especially in developed countries such as European countries faced with serious problems in their economies. Growth in developing economies such as China and India has become a danger for developed countries. Foreign trade worsened and caused decrease in balance of payments in western countries. Also high borrowing of governments deepened crisis in European countries. In recent years, CAD has become the most discussed issue for Turkey’s Economy. According to Peker (2009) macroeconomic policies such as inflation targeting generally cause appreciation of local currency and thus stimulate import. Turkey has lack of savings like other developing countries. Because of this, growth in economy depends on import oriented production and consumption. Although Turkish Economy performs high level of growth, the trade balance is worsening. In the last decade Turkish foreign trade has showed a large increase. However, increase in trade volume has become more than increase in export. Also increase of gas and oil prices in the world has increased Turkey’s energy expenditure. Therefore trade balance and also current account balance worsened. 40 Journal of Economic and Social Studies After the 1999 earthquake and 2001 crisis, fiscal policies tightened and to increase the revenues new tax policies have been implied. Especially new taxes such as Private Consumption Tax (PCT) on import oriented goods have been implied to help improving budget balance. Especially PCT revenues on petroleum products, almost totally import oriented, helped to finance the budget deficit. Tax burden is 20% in 2011 which was 13% in 1998. Also share of value-added taxes (VAT) from import in total value-added tax revenues raised to 17% which was 11% in 1999. The gap between domestic VAT and VAT from import is closed as of 2011. The growth in economy and tightened fiscal policies reduced the vulnerability to crisis of Turkish economy. However, good performance of budget balance had no positive effect on balance of payments. Export-import ratio was under 70% except 2001 and 2009. After 2001 Trade deficit increased continuously and in period 19972004 CAD/GDP ratio was 1,1% but in period 2005-2010 the ratio raised to 5,1%. Graph 1 shows the relation of BD and CAD in the last 15 years. Figure 1. Budget Deficit and Current Account Deficit in Turkey, 1996-2011(millions of $) Source: Electronic Data Delivery System (EDDS), CBRT, 2012. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 41 �Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS The Role of Twin Deficits Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey As seen in the figure, especially after the 2001, Current Account Balance continuously worsens. However, in this period Turkish economy experienced high growth rates. With the global financial crises in 2009 CAD decreases sharply. After that it increases sharply too. In this period BD moves in the opposite direction. According to graph, BD did not rise over 30 billion dollars except 2009. Shrink in economy and decrease in foreign trade decreased budget revenues in 2009. However in the last decade BD/ GDP ratio decreased continuously and become -1.4% as of 2011. This ratio is less than 3% which is the reference value in Maastricht Criteria. As of 2011 most of the EU member countries do not meet this criterion. In this paper it is discussed whether CAD and BD has a correlation with each other and if there is, in which direction is this relationship. According to hypothesis of this paper there is a correlation between these two deficits and it is negatively correlated. Because the increase in trade deficit increases the budget tax revenues and this help to decrease budget deficit. Literature Review In economic literature, there are many empirical researches that focused on twin deficits problem. In 1980’s United States faced with increase in federal trade deficit (TD) and federal budget deficit together. After that the relationship between trade deficit and budget deficit has become an important subject for researchers. Darrat (1988) tried to find the linkage between TD and BD by using data period 1960:I to 1984:IV for United States. He found the evidence of causality from budget deficit to trade deficit and stronger causality from trade to budget deficit by using multivariate Granger Causality Test. In the other study for the U.S., Enders and Lee (1990) searched the relationship between BD and CAD in period 1947 to 1987 by using VAR analysis. They found that government spending innovation generates a persistent current account deficit. Also, Abelln (1990) examined the relationship between federal budget deficits and merchandise trade deficit for U.S. He used multivariate time series within autoregressive model for period 1979:02 through 1985:02. He found that indirectly budget deficits affect trade deficits. 42 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Another work on US budget deficit and current account deficit linkage is study of Bahmani-Oskooee (1989). He examined the linkage in period 1973-1985 and concluded that the budget deficit contribute to current account deficit. Not only U.S. but also other countries are faced with this twin deficits issue. Therefore, there are studies about other countries too. Islam (1998) examined the casual relationship between budget deficits and trade deficits of Brazil from 1973:1Q through 1991:Q4. The results suggested that there is a bilateral causality between them. Vamvoukas (1999) used annual data in period between 1948 and 1994 for Greece. He used error correction model for the analysis and found that budget deficit has short and long run positive and significant causal effects on trade deficit. Alkswani (2000) studied on twin deficits problem in petroleum economy by using Saudi Arabia annual data from 1970 to 1999. In his empirical analysis he used ECM, Johansen cointegration and Granger bivariate causality tests and as a result found that trade deficit causes budget deficit. Puah et al. (2006) analyzed the twin deficits debate in Malaysia and Johansen-Juselius co-integration test results show that budget deficit and current account deficit do not contain common stohastic trend in long run. In addition unidirectional causality running from current account to budgetary variable where the deterioration in current account deficit could worsen the budgetary position in the case of Malaysia. Merza et al. (2012) examined twin deficits hypothesis for Kuwait for the quarterly period (1993:4-2010:4). To analyze the relationship between variables they applied the VAR model and tested for existence and the direction of causality and the results show that the direction of causality current account to budget balance that is an increase in current account causes a decrease in the government budget surplus or an increase in budget deficit. Also in Turkey, there are many studies focusing on Turkey’s twin deficits problem. Some of these studies are Ay, et al.(2004), Aksu and Başar (2005), Utkulu (2003), Yücel and Ata (2003), Kutlar and Şimşek (2001), Zengin (2000), Sever and Demir (2007), Akbostancı and Tunç (2002). Some of them used current account deficit variable and some used trade deficit variable in their empirical studies. Most of them used quarterly data for Turkey. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 43 �Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS The Role of Twin Deficits Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey Akbostancı and Tunç (2002) used quarterly variables between 1987:Q1 and 2001:Q3. They used Budget balance and trade balance as a percentage of GDP. By using ECM and Cointegration analysis the empirical results show that there is a long run relationship between two and in the short run worsening of budget balance worsens trade balance. Sever and Demir (2007) used quarterly data between the years 1987 and 2006 to examine the relationship of budget deficit with current account deficit. By using stationarity test, granger causality test and VAR analysis they found that budget deficit influence current account deficit indirectly. Kutlar and Şimşek (2001) used budget deficit and trade balance seasonally adjusted data in log form in period 1984(4) through 2000(2). In the analysis stationarity test, granger causality test, misspecification test, cointegration test and ECM used and found that there is a positive relationship between two variables and trade deficit increase budget deficit. Zengin (2000) used seasonally adjusted quarterly data for period 1987:I through 1998:I. The main variables are trade deficit and consolidated budget deficit as ratios to GNP. In the analysis VAR, Variance decompositions and impulse response function used. The result of the empirical analysis is that budget deficit influence trade balance. Yücel and Ata (2003) used yearly data from 1975 to 2002. The variables are current account deficit and budget deficit both in log form. The result of the empirical analysis is that there is a cointegration between CA and BD and there is a long run positive relationship. Granger causality test results say that causality is from BD to CA in lag(1) and causality is from CA to BD in lag (3,4 and 7). Utkulu (2003) used budget deficit and trade deficit variables as yearly data in period between 1950 and 2000. By using cointegration analysis and ECM, he found that there is a two sided long run causality between budget and trade deficits. Model, Method and Data Set In this section, a multivariate model has established to investigate twin deficits problem in Turkey. (1) Where BD, CAD, are budget deficit and current account deficit respectively. Budget deficit (BD) is generally defined as an amount by which some measure of government expenditure and some measure of government revenue. BD is dependent variable, whereas, current account is independent variable in this model. And current account deficit (CAD) Current account deficit includes foreign trade in goods, services and transfers. Current account occurs when a country’s total import of goods, services and transfers is greater than total export of goods services and transfers. Many studies in the literature use BD as an independent variable. But in this study BD is used as dependent variable unlike other studies. This paper adopted the method of co-integration first found by Engle-Granger (1987), developed by Johansen (1988) and applied by Johansen and Juselius (1990). This method depends on direct investigation of co-integration in the vector autoregressive (VAR) representation and produces maximum likelihood estimators of the unconstrained co-integration vector, but it allows one to explicitly test for number of co-integration vectors. Johansen’s methodology takes its starting points in the vector auto regression (VAR) of order p given by; (2) Where yt is a k vector of non-stationary variables I(1), xt is a d vector of deterministic variable; and Ɛt indicates an innovation vector. This VAR can be written as; Ay et al.(2004) used monthly data between 1992 and 2003 for the empirical analysis to find the linkage between BD and CAD. The variables used in the empirical analysis were in percentage of GDP. They used Granger Causality test and regression analysis. According to the empirical analysis there is reciprocal relationship between two variables. According to two regression analysis the coefficients are positive. 44 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 45 �Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS The Role of Twin Deficits Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey Table 1. ADF Unit Root Test (3) where (4) Where cointegration hypothesis defined as a reduced rank of the matrix π is stated in the form of π = αβ. α and β represent the two matrix which have (kxr)-dimensional and r rank. r is the number of co-integration (rank), β is a co-integration vector showing long-term effects of variables in the equilibrium relations and α indicates speed of adjustment in error correction model. Accordingly an matrix π is estimated from an unrestricted VAR in Johansen method and tested that specified conditions with reduced rank of π rejected or not. And determined by the help of Johansen method’s test statistics (λtrace and λmak) how many rank of the matrix π has. In this context, the data set of the variables used to determine the twin deficits problem in Turkey belong to1996:Q1-2011:Q4 period. All data were taken from Electronic Data Delivery System (EDDS) published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). And Econometric Views (Eviews 5.1) software program was used for all tests and estimates. Empirical Results and Discussion Variables BD CAD ΔBD ΔCAD Critical Values ADF Test -2.318258 [3] -3.353061 [1] -9.694507 [2] -4.617754 [6] 1% -4.1118 -4.1104 -3.5440 -3.5526 Note: Trend and intercept term is used as test type for BD and CAD variables, but only intercept term is used for the first differences of variables (Δ). The values in square brackets indicates appropriate length of delay according to AIC. It is necessary to determine an optimum number of delay to apply Johansen method. There are many measurements in the literature to determine the length of delay; Akaike Info Criterion, Schwarz Info Criterion, Hannan-Quin Criterion and Recent Forecast Error Criterion are the most commonly used (Johansen, 1995; Enders, 1995). But these criterions are not enough on their own. Also there should not be econometric problems in the length of delay selected with info criterions. According to this, in this model the length of delay is determined as two. In this context the model presented in Table 2 shows forecasting of diagnostic test is successful. Table 2. Diagnostic Test Results White Heteroskedasticity Chi-sq 14.897 Normality Test Jarque-Bera 0.203535 0.633672 Df 18 Prop 0.669 Df 2 2 Prop 0.9032 0.7285 Before constructing the Johansen method, it is important to make some process and pre-tests. Univariate time series of variables are checked by using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) (1979) unit root test. ADF unit root test results can be seen in Table 1. Variables were initially tested with first-level values and then tested with the levels of receipt of the first differences. Accordingly determined that all variables are integrated in the same order I(1). Therefore the necessary pre-condition for cointegration is provided. After checking univariate of all time series variables the relation between BD and CAD variables can be tested by co-integration test. The purpose of the co-integration test is to determine whether a group of non-stationary series is co-integrated or not. 46 Volume 3 Journal of Economic and Social Studies According to Table 1, all variables are I(1), that means co-integration relation between BD and CAD can be investigated by using Johansen Co-integration Method.The results of λtrace and λmak statistics are presented in Table 3. λtrace and λmak statistics helps to find existence of co-integration and number of vectors. According to the statistics; the null hypothesis (there is no co-integration relation Number 2 Fall 2013 47 �Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS The Role of Twin Deficits Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey between variables), is rejected against to alternative hypothesis (there is at least one co-integration relationship between the variables). In this case, there has to be at least one co-integration relationship at 5 % critical value. Table 3. Co-integration Test Null Hypothesis (H0) Alternative (H1) Hypothesisis Trace and Mak Sta5% Critical Value tistics Eigenvalue λTrace λTrace statistic r=0 r>0 0.309956 23.57399 15.49471 r≤1 r>1 0.009183 0.571998 3.841466 λMak λMak statistic r=0 r=1 0.309956 23.00199 14.26460 r=1 r=2 0.009183 0.571998 3.841466 The co-integration equation is presented in Table 4. According to results of cointegration; variable coefficients are statistically significant and consistent with what we expected in hypotheses. CAD has a significant negative effect on BD. When there is a 1% increase in CAD, BD decreases 0,12%. This finding is consistent with economic theory because according to Keynesian Approach two deficits have relationship with each other. However, in contrast to this approach, the direction is from CAD to BD and also coefficient is negative. Table 4. Co-integration Equation Error correction model (vector error correction: VEC) was established in order to investigate the short-run dynamics of variables acting together in the long-run and the results are presented in Table 5. As seen in Table 5; coefficient of error correction term (ECt-1) is statistically significant and negative. If the error correction term is negative, that means deviations in the short-run will be eliminated and series converges to the long-run equilibrium value again among the series moving together in the long-run. Namely error correction term is good working. According to the result approximately 87 % of deviations from the long-run equilibrium value eliminate in each period. Table 5. Error Correction Model Estimation Results DBAt= β0 + β1DCAt-1 + αECt-1+ ut Variables DBAt-1 DCAt-1 ECt-1 Invariable term CAD Normalized Co-integration coefficient (β′) 1.000 0.122535 (0.08580) Adaptation rates coefficient (α) -0.000427 (7.68E-05) -5.23E-05 (0.00019) Co-integration Equation BD= 5001.857 - 0.122535CAD Journal of Economic and Social Studies Coefficient -0.049275 -0.247044 -0.874470 -138.1142 R 2 = 0.44 R2 = 0.46 BD 48 If there is a co-integration relationship among non-stationary variables, there has to be an error correction representation (Engle and Granger, 1987) which illustrates the dynamic convergence of the system to the long-run equilibrium. A precondition for the existence of co-integration is that all the variables are integrated of the same order. If this is fulfilled, then the residuals from the long-run estimates can be used as the error correction term (ECT) to explain the short run dynamic.The error correction term in short run indicates that when the deviations in the short run will be adjusted in the next period (Cholifihani, 2008). t-statistic -0.33937 -1.45152 -4.69637 -0.31490 F = 17.12 Conclusion In this paper we tested whether there is a relationship between BD and CAD in Turkey with the framework of growth. In the last decade, Turkey’s economy performed well. After the 2001 crisis new economic policies strengthened the economy against Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 49 �Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS The Role of Twin Deficits Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey crises. With the help of tight fiscal policies, government did not compromise on the budget. However increase in consumption, appreciated currency, lack of savings and rise in price of energy products caused an increase in trade deficit. As a result current account deficit rose. According to empirical results there is a significant negative correlation between BD - CAD and the direction is from CAD to BD. When there is a 1% increase in CAD, BD decreases 0,12%. Many studies on Turkey do not cover last decade’s data. But in this study we reflect the effects of structural changes in Turkish Economy after the period 2001 in terms of BD and CAD. In this regard, empirical results of this study are differentiated from others. Because many studies in literature show that incease in CAD results from incease in BD. Unlike studies in literature, the results of this paper indicate that increase in CAD decrease in BD. It is possible to say that Turkey’s fiscal, tax and growth policies in the last periods provide this conclusion. That is to say, an increase in CAD helps to fix the budget balance. 2/3 of tax revenues come from indirect taxes which means most of tax revenues in Turkey come from consumption tax. It seems that economic growth in Turkey bases on consumption and this case results with CAD. This is not a sustainable situation. Because, a period of slowdown in the economy causes not only a decrease in CAD but also a deterioration of budget balance. This situation reduces the credibility of the government and the economy. Therefore Turkish economy has to cope with CAD not with tax policies but with increasing production facilities. If not, the economy may face with both deficits at the same time. Alkswani, A.M. (2000) Twin Deficit Phenomenon in Petroleum Economy: Evidence from Saudi Arabia, Seventh Annual Conference, Economic Research Forum, Amman. Ay, A., Z. Karaçor, M. Mucuk, S. Erdoğan (2004) Bütçe Açığı - Cari İşlemler Açığı Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği (1992-2003), Selçuk Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12, 75–82. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen (1989) Effects of the US Government Budget on its Current Account: An Empirical Inquiry, Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 29, 76-91. CBRT (2012) Electronic Data Delivery System (EDDS), www.tcmb.gov.tr Cholifihani, M. (2008) A Cointegration Analysis of Public Debt Service and GDP in Indonesia, Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 4(2): 68-81. Darrat, D.A. (1988) Have Large Budget Deficit Caused Rising Trade Deficit?, Southern Economic Journal, 54, 879–887. Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987) Co-integration and Error Correction Representation, Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276. Enders, W. (1995) Applied Econometric Time Series First Edition, Wiley New York. References Enders, W. and B. S. Lee (1990) Current Account and Budget Deficits : Twins or Distant Cousing, The review of Economics and Statistics, 72(3), 373- 381. Abell, J. D. (1990) Twin Deficits During the 1980’s: An Emprical Investigation, Journal of Macroeconomics, 12, 81-96. Islam, M.F. (1998) Brazil’s Twin Deficits: An Empirical Examination, Atlantic Economic Journal, 26, 2, 121-128. Akbostancı, E. and G.İ. Tunç (2002) Turkish Twin Deficit: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance, Middle East Technical Universty, ERC working papers, 1–17. Johansen, S. (1988) Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 12, 1988: 231-254. Aksu, H and S. Başar (2005) İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi’nin Türkiye Açısından Araştırılması, İktisat, İşletme ve Finansa Dergisi, (20), 109–114. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990) Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Deman for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, 52, 169-210. 50 Volume 3 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number 2 Fall 2013 51 �Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS Johansen, S. (1995) ikelihood Basic Inference in ointegration Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, New York. Kutlar, A. and M. Şimşek (2001) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıklarının Dış Ticaret Açıklarına Etkileri, Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: 1984–2000, okuz ylül Üniversitesi, İİB ergisi, 16 (1), 1–13. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms 1(*) Merza, E., Alawin, M. and Bashayreh, A. (2012) The Relationship Between Current Account and Government Budget Balance: The Case of Kuwait, International Journal of Humanities and ocial cience, 2(7), 168-177. Aygul ANAVATAN Akdeniz University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, 07058, Antalya, Turkey aygulanavatan@akdeniz.edu.tr, Peker, O. (2009) Türkiye’deki Cari Açık Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, Kocaeli Üniversitesi osyal Bilimler nstitüsü ergisi, 17(1), 164-174. Murat KARAOZ Puah, C., Lau, E. and Tan, K. L. (2006) Budget-Current Account Deficits Nexus in Malaysia, Munich Personal eP c Archieves, 37677(27), 1-27. Utkulu U. (2003) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları ve Dış Ticaret Açıkları Gerçekten İkiz mi? Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Bulguları”, . .Ü. İİB ergisi, 1(18), 45–61. Sever, E. And M. Demir (2007) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı ile Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi ie İncelenmesi, skişehir smangazi Üniversitesi İİB ergisi, 2(1), 47-63. Vamvoukas, G. (1999) The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Greece, Applied conomics, 31, 1093-1100. Yücel F. and Ata, A. Y (2003) Eş-Bütünleşme ve Nedensellik Testleri Altında İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması, Çukurova Üniversitesi osyal Bilimler nstitüsü ergisi, 12(12). Zengin, A. (2000) İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi (Türkiye Uygulaması), Gazi Üniversitesi konomik aklaşım ergisi, 11(39), 37–67. Akdeniz University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, 07058, Antalya, Turkey, mkaraoz@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstr ct The most widely used model in multivariate analysis of survival data is proportional hazards model proposed by ox. While it is easy to get and interpret the results of the model, the basic assumption of proportional hazards model is that independent variables assumed to remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. ne of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable and a parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using ox regression considering time-varying variables. The firm data comes from Business evelopment enters (İŞG M) which is a prominent business incubation center operating in urkey. KEYWO D urvival Analysis, ox egression Model, Proportional Hazard Assumption, ew irms A I LE HI O Y ubmitted:22 Jun 2012 esubmitted:03 January 2013 Accepted:25 March 2013 Jel ode: 41, 24, M13 1 This research paper has been an extension to the findings of the scientific research project “The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, 109K139, which has been funded with grant from TÜBİTAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey). We also acknowledge the administrative support to the project from Turkish Small and Medium Entreprises Development Organisation (KOSGEB). (*) Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 53 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2385 Title A name given to the resource The Role Of Twin Deficit Problem In Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis For Turkey Author Author UCAL, Halil Bolukbas , Mehmet Abstract A summary of the resource. In economics literature the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit is known as twin deficits hypothesis. The Keynesian Approach accepts a relationship between two deficits. In contrast to this, icardian quivalence Hypothesis defends there is no relationship between these two deficits. win deficits have become the subject of several studies to test which of these hypotheses are reliable but no consensus has been achieved. ome studies found a relationship from budget deficit to current account deficit but some of them had the opposite result. specially after 1980 it is known that many developed and developing countries encountered with this twin deficits problem. urkey also has the problem of twin deficits. Therefore, it is important to find whether there is causality between them and the direction of this causality. In this study the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit is examined by using Johansen ointegration Analysis. This study is based on period 1996:Q1-2011:Q4. According to results of cointegration; variable coefficients are statistically significant and consistent with what we expected in hypotheses. urrent account deficit ( A ) has a significant negative effect on budget deficit (B ). When there is a 1% increase in A , B decreases 0,12%. This finding is consistent with economic theory because according to Keynesian Approach two deficits have relationship with each other. However, in contrast to this approach, the direction is from A to B and also coefficient is negative. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e92de3a736a3ece0c71ba9f2fb4d9c18.pdf 9c7f45192537fe5c69937685221efc50 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU / Zülküf ÇEVİK Kırlıoğlu, H. (1998). Kalite Maliyetleri Muhasebesi. Değişim Yayınları. Low, S. P., & Yeo, H. K. (1998). A construction quality costs quantifying system for the building industry. International Journal of Quality & eliability Management, s. 329 - 349. Montgomery, D. C. (2005). Introduction to tatistical Quality ontrol. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Oliver, J., & Qu, W. (1999). Cost of quality reporting: Some Australian evidence. International Journal of Applied Quality Management, 233-250. Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Bilal Sisman Economics and Administrative Science Faculty Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey bsisman@aku.edu.tr Ömürgönülşen, M. (2009, May). A research on the measurement of quality costs in the Turkish food manufacturing industry. otal Quality Management & Business xcellence, 547-562. Özcan, S. (2012). An Empirical Research about Quality Cost Analysis and Its Impact on Managerial Decisions in Automotive Supplier Industry. International onference on Management, Applied and ocial ciences (I MA ’2012) March 24-25,(363-367. Dubai. Sinan Yoruk Education Faculty, Department of Education Science Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey syoruk@aku.edu.tr Pirsig, R. M. (1974). en and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. New York: William Morrow & Co. Rodchua, S. (2006, Oct-Dec). Factors, Measures, and Problems of Quality Costs Program Implementationin the Manufacturing Environment. Journal of Industrial echnology, 510-515. Sarıkaya, N. (2003) oplam Kalite önetimi. 1. Baskı. Sakarya: Sakarya Kitabevi. Ali Eleren Economics and Administrative Science Faculty Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey aeleren@hotmail.com Şimşek, M. (2001). oplam Kalite önetimi. İstanbul: Alfa Yayınları. Tsai, W. -H. (1998). Quality Cost Measurement Under Activity-Based Costing. International Journal of Quality and eliability Management, 719-752. Vahevanidis, N. M., Petropouolos, G., Avakumovic, J., & Mourlas, A. (2009). Cost Of Quality Models And Their Implementation In Manufacturing Firms. International Journal for Quality esearch, 27-36. A A With the growing popularity of Internet communication among KEYWO D adolescents, the Internet, social media, instant messaging and cell phones ocial Anxiety, ommunication have become important social tools in their life. This study examines teens’ use of social interactive technologies and the role that social anxiety plays on ools, echnology, Adolescents how adolescents communicate with others (technology or face-to-face). A questionnaire was designed and distributed to selected sample in the cities A I LE HI O Y of Afyonkarahisar, Manisa and şak in order to analyze the relationship ubmitted: 22. Jun 2012 between adolescents’ social anxiety and their preference of communication esubmitted: 25 eptember 2012 tool. The data were gathered from 544 respondents among High chool esubmitted: 9 ctober 2012 adolescents (ranged from 15-18; freshman, sophomore, junior and senior). Accepted: 22 ovember 2012 indings show that adolescents rarely use messenger sites and mail addresses. They generally send instant messages with their cell phones. They spend 1-2 hours for listening music and averagely 30 minutes for acebook in a day. More than half of teens have hi-tech cell phones that enable to call, send message and access to Internet. The findings of the present study also reveal that females use text messaging more than males. However, males spend much more time than females to play games. In addition, females feel themselves more uncomfortable than males for face-to-face talking with others. And, on the contrary to males, females also prefer to some extent, to communicate with other on internet instead of face-to-face talking. imilarly, females prefer more than males to make new on internet. JEL odes: 12, I12 100 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 101 �Bilal Sisman / Sinan Yoruk / Ali Eleren Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Introduction The use of socially interactive technologies, such as social media, text messaging or instant messaging rises among young people (Pierce, 2009). Among adolescents, the Internet has become indispensable for instrumental purposes such as school work information gathering as well as for communication purposes. The communication applications of Internet, such as e-mail, instant messaging (IM), blogs and chat rooms have entrenched themselves in the lives of adolescents and Internet has become an important social context in the lives of adolescents today. In fact, a national survey of adolescents (10-17 years of age) revealed that in the year before they were surveyed 25% of Internet users had formed casual online friendships (Wolak et al., 2002; Subrahmanyam and Lin, 2007). Instant messaging is also an increasingly popular form of communication. A study by the Pew Internet and American Life Project found that 53 million Americans use IM, and 36% of these users reported using IM on a daily basis (Shiu and Lenhart, 2004). IM is a text based form of communication in which two or more people exchange text messages in real time using the Internet (Lenhart, 2005). Some researches suggest that socially interactive technologies allow users to avoid or replace face-to-face communication (Nie and Erbring, 2000). If the person is shy (socially anxious) and feels uncomfortable with face-to-face interactions, these technologies may serve as a useful tool for avoiding such unpleasant situations and therefore may replace face-to-face communication (Pierce, 2009). US, Canadian and Dutch studies have shown that the vast majority of adolescents spend several hours daily online. Further surveys show that adolescents consider the Internet a highly important medium in their everyday social life and use it to form and maintain social relationships (Selfhout et al., 2009). that high school level about 15-18. The beginning of puberty and the end of puberty is the reason why we selected this age range. Because, puberty is a vital phase for growing of young people and determine their personalities. This study is not been applied only Afyonkarahisar teens but also Uşak and Kütahya provinces are included. The purpose of this study is to research adolescents’ use of social media, computers, text messaging, cell phones and instant messaging related to social anxiety effective’s technological tools versus face-to-face communication. Because, especially 15-20 years-old-teens have been noticed to use on-line communication means having faster and interactive features rather than having face-to-face communication while talking to their friends or their parents. Consequently, in this study, the reason for this choice has a connection with whether social anxiety or gender will be researched. Literature Overview Internet Use among Teens Use of Internet continues to increase worldwide. Colley and Maltby (2008) indicated that, 57% of households now have access, in comparison to 46% four years ago in the UK (National Statistics, 2006). The Digital Future Project in the US has found that 78.6% of Americans went online in 2005, with an accompanying increase in the amount of time spent per week on the Internet (Center for the Digital Future, 2005). Today, social anxiety, social phobia and shyness are features that seen every individuals of all ages. Both adolescents and adults who have social anxiety against life and their environment scope, has led to more research on them. This study is related on teens Many of the studies in this area have been conducted with university students, in part because of their widespread use of the Internet as a social tool; indeed such use among students is increasing. In addition, a number of studies have found a high prevalence of social anxiety among university students who may then turn to the Internet as a way of regulating, challenging or escaping their social fears (Shepherd and Edelmann, 2005). Many university students commenting that they are shy in social situations, but are more open, easy going on the net, in chat rooms. They are shy about approaching people at a party or in large group, for example, but not about talking with people in chat rooms. 102 Volume 3 Motivation Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number 2 Fall 2013 103 �Bilal Sisman / Sinan Yoruk / Ali Eleren Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Cell Phone Use among Adolescents Auter (2007) researched that some of them related to adolescents and young adults use the cell phone differently than their parents and other older users. They prefer to consider it their primary phone –traditional landline phone – for its. Some studies have found little or no difference in use based on gender (e.g., DeBaillon, 2003; DeBaillon and Rockwell, 2005). Other studies have found, however that boys tend to be more intrigued with technical aspects of the devices, while girls tend to prefer the interpersonal connectivity – and spend more time using their phones for voice calls (Henderson et al., 2002; Rakow and Navarro, 1993; Skog, 2002). In fact, while women in one study felt the phones resulted in more freedom, male teens found the additional connectivity a constraining inconvenience. A recent Pew Internet research study found that approximately 33% of teens have a cell phone. Of the 33% of teens who reported owning a cell phone, approximately 64% said they had sent text messages. In addition, the Pew study found that of the young cell phone users, teenage girls tended to use text messaging much more than their male counterparts. Older teens (17 year olds) also reported sending more text messages on average than younger teens. Although cell phone use and text messaging have risen among U.S. teens, their popularity remains considerably less than European teens (Lenhart et al., 2005; Pierce, 2009). Seventy-five percent of teenagers now own cell phones, and 25% use them for social media, 54% use them for texting, and 24% use them for instant messaging. Thus, a large part of this generation’s social and emotional development is occurring while on the Internet and on cell phones (Hinduja and Patchin, 2007). Instant Messaging The two previously mentioned theoretical approaches might adhere to different types of Internet activities that may have differential effects on well-being. One type of activities surfing, which can be described as visiting web sites on the Internet for non-communication purposes. In contrast to surfing, Instant Messaging (IMing) consists of sending messages directly to others one has invited to the online conversation. Because of its dyadic, real-time, and private format, IM-ing has 104 Journal of Economic and Social Studies been as an excellent ‘training ground’ for adolescents in terms of their social skills (Morgan and Cotten, 2003; Valkenburg and Peter, 2007). A survey study showed that among freshmen college students whereas increased time spent IM-ing was uniquely associated with less reported depression, increased time spent surfing was uniquely associated with more reported depression (Morgan and Cotten, 2003). Social Anxiety and Gender Differences Social anxiety has variously been referred to as both shyness and social phobia. Social phobia, (also known as social anxiety disorder) is at the more extreme end of the continuum of social anxiety and “includes a collation of symptoms which unlike shyness can vary in severity throughout one’s life” these symptoms are only elicited in certain social situations (Leary, 1983). In contrast shyness while at the less severe en of the social anxiety continuum is more likely to be a life long characteristic of an individual’s temperament which is experienced in every social occurrences (Lecrubier et al., 2000; Shepherd and Edelmann, 2005). Individuals are often motivated by a need to feel a sense of belonging; however, those with social anxiety may find it difficult to fulfill this social need because of the Internet. For socially anxious individuals, the Internet and socially interactive technologies (text messaging) can have both positive and negative results. Kraut et al (1998) found that online interaction greatly reduced face-to-face social interaction. Females usually have more negative attitudes toward computers and greater computer anxiety than males. Researches on computer self-efficacy in general also revealed that males on average have better computer self-efficacy than females (Hackett, 1985). Similarly, one might expect adolescent girls to be more worried than boys about peers’ negative evaluations of them. Indeed, surveys have found that adolescent girls are more concerned than boys about others’ judgments of their appearance and behavior. Moreover, rates of internalizing problems are higher among girls than boys and adult women are about twice as likely to be socially phobia as men (Schneier et al., 1992). Thus, adolescent girls may be more vulnerable than boys to feelings of social anxiety, and this may have implications for their social functioning (La Greca and Lopez, 1998). Jackson et al. (2001) predicted that women would use e-mail more and men use the Web for information more, based on the greater interpersonal orientation of women Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 105 �Bilal Sisman / Sinan Yoruk / Ali Eleren Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents and greater task orientation of men. This prediction was supported in a large sample of Anglo-American undergraduates, even after computer self-efficacy, loneliness and depression were controlled for. Wasserman and Richmond-Abbott (2005) found that women use e-mail slightly but not significantly more than men but that men use chat rooms more. Shepherd and Edelmann (2005) study social anxiety and Internet use to explore in relation to regulation of social fears. It is hypothesized that high social anxiety will be associated with low ego strength as well as greater scores on the Internet. Methods Participants and Data The data was gathered from 544 students among High Schools in Afyonkarahisar, Kütahya and Uşak cities. The age of the participants ranged from 15 to 18. 32.4% were freshman, 24.1% were sophomore, 28.1% juniors and 15.4% were seniors. The sample consisted of 227 (41.7%) males and 317 (58.3%) females. We first were contacted the principals and asked permission in order to survey some classes on school. After that, teacher was chosen to gain a sample of students from each school year. After obtaining permission from teachers, each student was warned about survey able to tell it their parents. The survey was applied in the students’classrooms and teachers were present during all testing. All students received the same instructions and their identity would remain secret. Each participant completed a report questionnaire. Purpose It is very important to analyze of instant messaging, text messaging and other socially interactive technologies among teens due to significant popularity. Since social anxiety can affect one’s type of social interaction, it is prominent to examine if social anxiety is influencing how adolescents communicate with others and which technology. The purpose of this study is to research adolescents’ use of online social sites, cell phones, test messaging and instant messaging and if social anxiety influences technology versus face-to-face communication. So, the following hypotheses are proposed: • • • • • • 106 H1: Females use socially interactive technology (text messages, cell phones, e-mail, and instant messages) more than males. H2a: There is a relationship between not feeling comfortable talking with others in person and feeling more comfortable talking with others online. H2b: There is a relationship between not feeling comfortable talking with others in person and feeling more comfortable messaging with others. H2c: There is a relationship between the amount of their families’ monthly income and social anxiety. H3: Males are more social anxiety with face-to-face interactions than females. H4: Males are feeling more comfortable talking with others through a social interaction technology than females. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Measures The first two questions of the questionnaire consisted of primarily demographic questions such as age, sex, year in school, and general information. The next series ten questions included items of the students’ comfort level in interacting with others face-to-face, online talking, cell phone or text messaging. Questions were prepared by using both nominal (yes or no) and 5 point likert-type scales. All hypotheses were developed by us to measure the relationship between social anxiety and usage of technological tolls among teens. The reliability of tests confirms our measurement (Cronbach α=72.4). This test can be acceptable according to rule of thumb for describing internal consistency 0.7 ≤ α ≤ 0.8 Results 3.7% stated the amount of children who separate from their families is not adequate for measuring the relationship between social anxiety and family situation. First of all, participants were asked about type of technological tools they had use. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 107 �Bilal Sisman / Sinan Yoruk / Ali Eleren Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Table 2. Regression estimates and correlation • 88.9% reported having personnel computer. • 79.2% reported having Internet on their PC. Variables • 92.6% stated that having messenger address. Dependent • 73% reported having e-mail accounts. Gender (technology use) • 96.7% reported having cell phones. Gender (face-to-face interac- • 72.2% reported having text messaging capabilities on their cell phones. • 84.3% stated having social media sites and most of them are using Facebook (49.2%). Most of the other has more than one membership in social sites (twitter, MySpace, LinkedIn etc). The following next questions asked how much time adolescents use each of their time on their technological tools on average day. Table 1 shows the results. tion) Gender (talking online) Gender (making friends online) Game Feeling anxiety Table 1. Technological tools use 9 h + (%) 7-8 h (%) 5-6 h (%) 3-4 h (%) 1-2 h (%) Msn Instant message Cell phone Social sites Music Game Mail Internet 0.4 3.7 0.6 0.7 3.9 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.4 2.2 0.2 1.7 2,4 0.9 0.2 0.4 0 4.6 0.4 1.5 5.0 1.3 0.2 1.1 0.6 10.8 2.2 8.0 10.3 4,3 1.1 6.7 4.3 17.5 11.9 29.0 39.0 17.7 3.9 26.8 30 min (%) 13.6 23.6 56.9 33.3 31.8 24.0 12.8 40.1 İncome (monthly) None (%) 80.7 37.5 27.8 25.8 7.6 51.0 80.9 23.8 As shown in Table 1, adolescents rarely use messenger sites and mail address. They generally send instant message with their cell phones. They spend 1-2 hours for listening music and averagely 30 minutes for Facebook in a day. More than half of teens have cell phones that enable to call, message and access to Internet. All following hypothesis were examined to 95% level of confidence. Regression analysis was made to see the relationship between feeling anxiety and family income with technological tools usage among adolescents; T-test, Chi-square test and one way ANOVA test was performed in the study to see gender differences with technology use, face-to-face interaction, talking online, making friends online and playing games. 108 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Males Females Males Females Males Females Full sample (n:544) Standart Significant Coefficient deviation (p) 1.52 2.31 0.019 1.08 1.90 1.86 0.99 0.003 2.12 0.92 3.48 1.05 0.009 3.71 0.96 Males 3.62 1.19 Females Males Females Instant message Social sites Msn Cell phone Instant message Social sites Msn Cell phone 4.14 0.30 1.06 0.069 0.139 -0.005 0.308 173,737 -270,341 -8,104 -38,099 1.04 0.75 1.66 0.054 0.052 0.025 0.045 119,286 115,816 55,636 99,021 Independent Correlation coefficient (r) 0.000 0.000 0.201 0.008 0.851 0.000 0.146 0.020 0.884 0.701 0.449 0.125 After T-test was made for hypothesis 1, table 2 shown that females (M: 1.08, SD: 1.9) reported that they are using text messaging more than males and significant relationship between text messaging and interactive technology (M: 1.52, SD: 2.31, p: 0.019). In addition, males (M: 0, 3, SD: 0.75) spend much more time than females to play games and there is a gender differences between playing games on computer and social technology using (M: 1.06, SD: 1.66, p: 0.000). There are not gender differences in use of instant messaging, e-mail, social network sites and chat rooms. When someone have to talk face-to-face, feeling anxiety was positively correlated with feeling comfortable with others through cell phones and social media sites (r:0.449, p: 0.000). There isn’t a relationship between social anxiety of face-toface interaction and feeling comfortable with others via messaging (p: 0.204). The regression analysis showed, there isn’t a relationship between the amount of families’ monthly income with social interaction technologies (p: 0.230, r: 0.125). Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 109 �Bilal Sisman / Sinan Yoruk / Ali Eleren Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents According to the results of Chi-square test, significance was not found for hypothesis 3. However, a female feels more uncomfortable than males for face-toface talking than males (Levene’s test p: 0.017). There is just significant differences feeling comfortable by talking with social media sites with gender (p: 0.003), that is; famales (M: 2.12, SD: 0.92) are more uncomfortable than do males (M: 1.86, SD: 0.99, p: 0.000). Many studies in this area is conducted for university students. The use of Internet as a social tool is more common among at this age adolescents. But this study is related to high school level for students and we examined the relationship between social anxiety and the use of Internet, cell phone as a technological tool. Further studies may apply for university students. There is significant difference for hypothesis 4, after One-way Anova test was made, teens prefer talk with someone on computer instead of talking and make new friends with someone on computer. Females (M: 3.71, SD: 0.96) prefer talking with some on computer instead of talking face-to-face than males (M: 3.48, SD: 1.05, p: 0.009). Similarly, females (M: 4.14, SD: 1.04) prefer making new friends with someone on computer more than males (M: 3.62, SD: 1.19, p: 0.000). Finally, adolescents who may be shy, have social phobia, and feel anxiety about talking with someone, various and different technologies provide reliable opportunity for them to contact with them. It is possible to reproduce the contributions of technology for our world. Although this technology facilities the lives of people, it sometimes breaks the peace. Technology has changed the way we live today and also changing our communication skills with high costs. Only time will tell what is going on in the future. Parents and teachers have great responsibilities for this subject. Conclusion References In Turkey, cell phone, text messaging, instant message and social sites membership are recognized as the most important medium of communications among adolescents. Internet access via PCs and mobile phones plays very significant role Turkey adolescents. Technology tools effect teens’ social emotions against their families and friends. This study demonstrated that teens are using socially interactive technology to communicate with others and it serves social anxiety and decreasing face-to face communication. Auter P. J., (2007). Portable Social Groups: Willingness To Communicate, Interpersonal Communication Gratifications, and Cell Phone Use Among Young Adults, Inetrnational J. Mobile Communications, 5(2) 139-156. The findings of the current study found that females are using text messaging more than males. However, males are playing games for a long time than females. In addition, females are feeling more uncomfortable talking with others face-to-face than males. And, females also prefer talking with some on computer instead of talking face-to-face than males. Similarly, females prefer making new friends with someone on computer more than males. Colley, A., and Maltby, J., (2008). Impact Of The Internet On Our Lives: Male and Female Personal Perspectives, Computers In Human Behavior, 24, 2005-2013. Hinduja S, Patchin J. (2007). Offline Consequences Of Online Victimization: School Violence And Delinquency. J Sch Violence. 6(3): 89 –112. La Greca, A. M. and Lopez N., (1998). Social Anxiety Among Adolescents: Linkages With Peer Relations and Friendships, Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology, 26(2), 83-94. Lenhart, A. (2005). Protecting Teens Online. Pew Internet and American Life Project. URL: http:// www.pewInternet.org/. Morgan, C., and Cotten, S. R. (2003). The Relationship Between Internet Activities and Depres-sive Symptoms in a Sample of College Freshmen. CyberPsychology and Behavior, 6(2), 133–142. O’Keeffe, G. S., and Pearson, C., (2011). The Impact of Social Media on Children, Adolescents and Families, Journal of American Academy Of Pediatric, 800-805. Beyond the results of this study, we examined something very important situation related to adolescents’ today currents. While the age of participants were increasing, the time spend in social media is decreasing. The reason for such conclusion revealed that, senior students have to work more for university exams during education session. So, they can’t spend much more time on social media sites. Pierce, T., (2009). Social Anxiety and Technology: Face-To-Face Communication Versus Technological Communication Among Teens, Computers İn Human Behavior, 25, 1367-1372. 110 Volume 3 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Selfhout, M. H. W., Branje, S. J. T., Delsing, M., Bogt, T. F. M., and Meeus W. H. J., (2009). Different Types Of Internet Use, Depression, and Social Anxiety: The Role Of Perceived Friendship Quality. Journal of Adolescence, 32 819-833. Number 2 Fall 2013 111 �Bilal Sisman / Sinan Yoruk / Ali Eleren Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Shepherd, R. M., and Edelmann, R. J., (2005). Reasons For İnternet Use and Social Anxiety, Personality and Individual Differences, 39, 949-958. Subrahmanyam S. and Lin, G., (2007). Adolescents On The Net: Internet Use and Well-Being, Adolescence, 42(168), 659-677. Valkenburg P. M., and Peter J., (2007). Online Communication and Adolescent Well-Being: Testing the Stimulation Versus the Displacement Hypothesis, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 12(4), 1169-1182. 9+ 7-8 5-6 3-4 1-2 30 min- None hours/ hours/ hours/ hours/ hours/ utes/ daily daily daily daily daily daily Instant messaging Text messaging with cell phone Talking with cell phone Social networking Listening music Playing game E-mail Online (surfing on the Internet) 15. How comfortable are you talking with friends, family and teachers face-to-face? Appendix 1 ---Very comfortable ---Comfortable ---Normal The purpose of this questionnare is to research 15-20 year old adolescents’ use of online social sites, cell phones, test messaging and instant messaging and if social anxiety influences technology versus face-to-face communication. Bilal Şişman Assoc. Prof. Ali Eleren Assist. What is your sex? 2. What is your year in school? (select only one) ---Frequently ---Sometimes ---Rarely (very few) ---Uncomfortable ---Very uncomfortable ---Uncomfortable ---Very uncomfortable 19. How comfortable are you talking with others on your instant messaging? ------(10) ------(11) -----(12) ---Very comfortable ---Comfortable 4. Does your mother and father live together? ---Yes ---No 5. Do you have a daily computer? ---Yes ---No 6. Do you have a Internet access on your computer? ---Yes ---No 7. Is your Internet connection wireless? ---Yes ---No 8. Do you have a instant messaging address? ---Yes ---No 9. Do you have e-mail address use actively? ---Yes ---No 10. Do you have a cell phone? ---Yes ---No 11. Do you have access to the Internet on your cell phone? ---Yes ---No ------------TL (Twitter, Facebook, MySpace etc) ---Yes ---No 13. If yes on 12, which of the following social networking do you have? ------Linkedin ---Normal ---Uncomfortable ---Very uncomfortable 20. How comfortable are you talking with others on your cell phone (talking)? ---Very comfortable ---Comfortable ---Normal ---Uncomfortable ---Very uncomfortable 21. How often dou you text message someone instead of talking to them face-to-face? ---Always ---Frequently ---Sometimes ---Rarely (very few) ---Never 22. How often do you talk with someone on the computer instead of talking to them in person? ---Always ---Frequently ---Sometimes ---Rarely (very few) ---Never 23. How often dou you text message someone instead of talking with them on the cell phone? ---Always ---Frequently ---Sometimes ---Rarely (very few) ---Never 24. How often dou you make new friends with someone on the computer? 12. Do you have a social networking account? ------Twitter ---Never 17. How comfortable are you talking with others using text messaging? ---Very comfortable ---Comfortable ---Normal What is your families’ total income? ------Youtube ------Classmates ------Other (please specify)--------------------14. On an average day, how much time do you spend with each of the following? 112 ---Always 18. (If yes on 12) How comfortable are you talking with others on your social networking sites? ------Male ------Female 3. ------Facebook ---Very uncomfortable 16. Do you find yourself getting anxious when you have to talk with someone face-to-face? ---Very comfortable ---Comfortable ---Normal 1. ------(9) Asst. Prof. Sinan Yörük Reserch ---Uncomfortable Journal of Economic and Social Studies ---Always ---Frequently ---Sometimes ---Rarely (very few) ---Never 25. When confronted with a difficult stuation with another person, which of the following would you typically use to talk with other person? ------Text messaging with cell phone ------Talking with cell phone ------E-mail ------Instant messaging ------Social networking sites Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 ------Face-to-face communication 113 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2389 Title A name given to the resource Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Author Author SISMAN, Bilal Yoruk, Sinan ELEREN, Ali Abstract A summary of the resource. With the growing popularity of Internet communication among adolescents, the Internet, social media, instant messaging and cell phones have become important social tools in their life. This study examines teens’ use of social interactive technologies and the role that social anxiety plays on how adolescents communicate with others (technology or face-to-face). A questionnaire was designed and distributed to selected sample in the cities of Afyonkarahisar, Manisa and şak in order to analyze the relationship between adolescents’ social anxiety and their preference of communication tool. The data were gathered from 544 respondents among High chool adolescents (ranged from 15-18; freshman, sophomore, junior and senior). indings show that adolescents rarely use messenger sites and mail addresses. They generally send instant messages with their cell phones. They spend 1-2 hours for listening music and averagely 30 minutes for acebook in a day. More than half of teens have hi-tech cell phones that enable to call, send message and access to Internet. The findings of the present study also reveal that females use text messaging more than males. However, males spend much more time than females to play games. In addition, females feel themselves more uncomfortable than males for face-to-face talking with others. And, on the contrary to males, females also prefer to some extent, to communicate with other on internet instead of face-to-face talking. similarly, females prefer more than males to make new on internet. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/deb53ac802d31974eefdb0c7d32f9313.pdf 893f25ea0fd0cd621a5e531393e0cbaf PDF Text Text Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Karaöz, M., & Albeni, M., (2011), İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan Girişimlerin Hayatta Kalma ve üyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: KO GE İş Geliştirme Merkezleri (İŞGEM) Üzerine ir Araştırma. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). (Issue Brief No. 109K139). Kleinbaum, D.G., & Klein, M. (2005). urvival Analysis: A elf- earning ext (2nd Ed.). New York: Springer. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey Scheike, T. H. (2004). Time-Varying Effects in Survival Analysis. In: N. Balakrishnan & C.R. Rao. (Ed.), Advances in urvival Analysis, 61-85. Amsterdam: Elsevier North-Holland. Özgür Polat Department of Economics Dicle University, Diyarbakır, Turkey opolat@dicle.edu.tr Sertkaya, D., Ata, N., & özer, M. T. (2005). Yaşam çözümlemesinde zamana bağlı açıklayıcı değişkenli Cox regresyon modeli. Ankara Üniversitesi ıp akültesi Mecmuası, 58, 153-58. Tabatabai, M. A., Bursac, Z., Williams, D. K., & Singh, K. P. (2007). Hypertabastic survival model. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 4:40. Enes E. Uslu Department of Econometrics Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey ertad10@hotmail.com Yay, M., Çoker, E., & Uysal, Ö. (2007). Yaşam Analizinde Cox Regresyon Modeli ve Artıkların İncelenmesi, errahpaşa ıp ergisi, 38, 139-45. Hüseyin Kalyoncu Department of International Trade Meliksah University, Kayseri, Turkey hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr Abstr ct This study analyzes unit root properties of total and sectorial energy production and consumption series of urkey. This study is the first to analyze unit root properties of urkish energy production and consumption in detail. The unit root analysis of energy production and consumption are tested by using unit root tests based on M considering without structural break and with one and two structural breaks. According to unit root test without structural break, the unit root hypothesis is rejected only for consumption of natural gas. The unit root hypothesis is rejected for 15 out of the 33 series by the test with one structural break. When unit root test with two structural breaks are conducted, 25 out of the 33 series are found to be stationary around a deterministic trend. The production of hydraulic and the consumption of lignite, electricity, petroleum, coal and electricity, total energy and petroleum consumption in ransportation sector are found to be nonstationary, which indicates that the impacts of innovations on these variables will be permanent. The policy implication of the results suggests that the impacts of shocks on energy consumption and production will be temporary and not have a long memory for most of variables. KEYWO D nergy onsumption, nergy Production, nit oot Analysis, urkey A I LE HI O Y ubmitted: 04 ctober 2012 esubmitted: 24 ecember 2012 Accepted: 25 March 2013 JEL ode: Q43, Q48 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 69 �Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey Introduction Y = F ( L, K , E ) (1) The impact of unit root properties of energy variables for the formulation and consequences of economic policies are crucial in several aspects, especially on structural transitions from shocks in energy markets towards key macroeconomic variables (Mishra, Sharma, & Smyth, 2009; Narayan & Smyth, 2007). Impact of shocks on energy variable can be permanent or transitory according to its unit root properties. If the energy variable is stationary, impact of shocks will be transitory and long short term. On the other hand, if the energy variable is not stationary, the impacts of shocks will be permanent and have a long memory. Hendry and Juselius (2000) indicate that economic variables can inherit unit root properties from related economic variables and can in turn transmit this property to other related variables. They argued that relationship between economic variables can spread unit root properties throughout the economy. In this context, knowledge of unit root properties of an energy variable is of importance, since this property can be inherited by related macroeconomic variables. The impact of energy demand on economic activity can be serious. The literature has shown that energy price shocks, via their substantial impact on energy consumption, have significant impacts on output (Chang & Wong, 2003; Du, Yanan, & Wei, 2010; Hamilton, 1996, 2007; Huang, Hwang, & Peng, 2005; Jayaraman & Choong, 2009; Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2008; Lardic & Mignon, 2008; B. R. Lee, Lee, & Ratti, 2001; Lorde, Jackman, & Thomas, 2009; Zhang, 2011), inflation (Chang & Wong, 2003; Cologni & Manera, 2008; Cuñado & Pérez de Gracia, 2003; Ewing & Thompson, 2007), unemployment (Carruth, Hooker, & Oswald, 1998; Chang & Wong, 2003; Rafiq, Salim, & Bloch, 2009), employment (Papapetrou, 2001), stock market (Arouri, Lahiani, & Nguyen, 2011; Basher, Haug, & Sadorsky, 2012; Evangelia, 2001; Filis, Degiannakis, & Floros, 2011; Park & Ratti, 2008; Sadorsky, 1999), investment (Rafiq et al., 2009), the budget deficit (Rafiq et al., 2009), exchange rate (Ayadi, 2005; Basher et al., 2012; S. S. Chen & Chen, 2007; Narayan, Narayan, & Prasad, 2008; Özturk, Feridun, & Kalyoncu, 2008), interest rate (Lowinger, Wihlborg, & Willman, 1985; Park & Ratti, 2008), exports (Chiou Wei & Zhu, 2002; Faria, Mollick, Albuquerque, & León-Ledesma, 2009; Zhang, 2011), fluctuations in business cycle (Kim & Loungani, 1992) and money supply (Zhang, 2011). where output (Y) is production, (L) is labour, (K) is capital and (E) is energy use of a firm. The profits (π) of a firm can be estimated as: (2) where P is the price of output per unit, W is the nominal wage paid for labour, Q is the nominal cost of energy used in the production process and r is the nominal rate of rented capital. The equilibrium energy price for rational firm will be at a level where marginal product of energy is equal to unit price of energy: FE ( L, K , E ) = Q / P (3) where FE(L,K,E) is the partial derivative of F(.) regarding E. The following equation will be obtained in case both sides of the equation (3) are multiplied by E and divided by Y: (4) Eq (4) indicates that the elasticity of output regarding change in energy consumption used in the production process can be derived from the cost of the energy used to produce the total output. Disruptions in energy production will affect energy prices and a change in energy prices used in production process will also have a significant impact on output of an economy as shown in Eq (4). Therefore, shocks on non-stationary energy production series will be permanent and affect economic activity perpetually , while shocks on stationary energy production series will be transitory and affect economic activity temporarily, via transmission mechanism (Narayan, Narayan, & Smyth, 2008). The unit root properties of energy variables are of importance for forecasting these variables. Accurate forecasts are crucial for energy planning and policy formulation. Future values of a stationary energy variable can be forecasted based on its past behavior (P. F. Chen & Lee, 2007), while past data about a nonstationary energy variable are useless in forecasting (Mishra et al., 2009). Besides shocks on energy demand, Hamilton (2007) showed that disruptions on energy supply can also have significant impact on economic activity by presenting a model based on Cobb-Douglas production function as below: Stationarity of energy consumption can be due to a multitude of factors. Hsu, Lee, and Lee (2008) suggested that abundance of energy resources, less energy consumption, new environmental regulations and laws introduced by governments and middle income level may lead to stationarity of energy consumption. 70 Volume 3 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number 2 Fall 2013 71 �Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey The goal of this study is to analyze the unit root properties of energy consumption and production in Turkey by employing a Lagrange Multiplier based unit root test without structural break proposed by Schmidt and Phillips (1992) (SP) and a unit root test considering one structural break proposed by J. Lee and Strazicich (2004) (LS) and two structural breaks developed by J. Lee and Strazicich (2003) (LS). If the time series of the variable to be tested for the unit root properties has structural breaks, the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected by conventional unit root tests (Perron, 1989). Monte Carlo simulations point that statistical performance of LS is better than other alternatives (Narayan, Narayan, & Popp, 2010). This study is the first to investigate unit root properties of Turkish energy production and consumption in detail. The next section briefly summarizes the literature on studies analyzing the unit root properties of energy consumption and production. Section 3 describes data used in the analysis. Section 4 summarizes the unit root tests used in this study. Section 5 presents results of the unit root test. Section 6 discusses main findings and implications of the results for policy formulation and implementation. countries between January 1973 and December 2007. The results of their study show the presence of threshold effects on the crude oil production and unit root for 11 of the countries in both regimes and a partial unit root for the others. In contrast to the dearth of studies investigating unit root properties of energy production series, there are numerous studies on unit root properties of energy consumption. Narayan and Smyth (2007) analyze the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption of 182 countries for the period of 1979 to 2000 by using annual data. The results of univariate unit root test indicate that the series of 56 countries are nonstationary at the 10% level or better. The panel data unit root test indicate that there is overwhelming evidence about stationary of energy consumption. P. F. Chen and Lee (2007) investigate energy consumption per capita series of 7 regional panel sets for the period of 1971 to 2002 by employing panel unit root testing procedure, and find stationary structure in all series. A substantial literature review about the unit root properties of energy consumption can be found in P. F. Chen and Lee (2007), Hsu et al. (2008) and Aslan and Kum (2011). Brief Overview of the Literature Although there have been numerous studies analyzing the unit root properties of energy consumption series, only a handful of studies have investigated energy production. Barros, Gil-Alana, and Payne (2011) examine the time series behavior of oil production for 13 OPEC member countries for the period of January 1973 and October 2008. They found that oil production series have mean reverting persistence with breaks identified in 10 out of the 13 countries. The results of the study indicate that the impact of shocks on oil production in these countries will be persistent in the long run for all countries. Narayan, Narayan, and Smyth (2008) analyze the unit root properties of crude oil production for 60 countries by conducting panel data unit root tests with and without structural breaks between 1971 and 2003. The results of tests without a structural break are inconclusive, while the results of test with a structural break are conclusive and indicate the stationary structure of production series of crude oil and natural gas liquids. Data The unit root properties of primary total production, total and sectorial consumption of various energy variables of Turkey covering different periods are explored in this study as shown in Table 1. The data are obtained from Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) of Turkey. The periods of analysis are determined by data availability. All data used in this study are transformed to natural logarithmic form prior to unit root tests. Descriptive statistics of the variables subject to analysis are presented in Table 1. Maslyuk and Smyth (2009) test for non-linarities and unit roots in crude oil production. They used monthly crude oil production for 17 OPEC and non-OPEC 72 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 73 �Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey 1000 Production - Natural Gas 400 600 800 200 0 1953 1963 1973 Years 1983 1993 2003 1986 Petroleum 1950 Years 1996 2006 Hydraulic 1960 1970 1980 Years 1990 2000 2010 1950 1960 1970 Coal 1980 Years 1990 2000 2010 Lignite 0 1950 Note: TEP indicates Ton Equivalent Petroleum 1976 2013 4000 8461 1810 1773 2680 3826 3976 22 4926 2428 2079 1208 1058 149 6117 1670 2227 1152 1943 Production - Hydraulic 1000 2000 3000 15218 4699 2630 2508 8869 8637 36 16368 3346 2252 2083 1927 129 18450 4700 2381 1471 1933 0 TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP 1923 15000 3942 4061 7786 10980 1215 296 615 43089 Natural Gas Production - Lignite 5000 10000 6411 8084 23066 9089 1971 354 4776 28122 Electricity 200000 TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP 106 kWh Figure 1. Energy Production (Source: MENR) Production - Electricity 100000 150000 50000 623 4569 1325 284 1329 309 764 53778 0 2097 5498 2325 293 1322 318 4405 34695 5000 TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP TEP 106 kWh Production - Petroleum 2000 3000 4000 Std. Dev. 1000 Mean 1000 IND IND_PET IND_ECT IND_NGS TPT TPT_PET TPT_ECT RES RES_PET RES_ECT ACL ACL_PET ACL_ECT OSC OSC_PET OSC_ECT NEY Unit 0 CCL CLT CPM CNG CHC CGL CWD CEY Period Production Coal 1950 - 2008 Lignite 1950 - 2008 Petroleum 1950 - 2008 Natural Gas 1976 - 2008 Hydraulic 1950 - 2008 Geothermal 1963 - 2008 Wood 1950 - 2008 Electricity 1923 - 2009 Consumption Coal 1970 - 2009 Lignite 1970 - 2009 Petroleum 1970 - 2009 Natural Gas 1976 - 2009 Hydraulic 1970 - 2009 Geothermal 1970 - 2009 Wood 1970 - 2009 Electricity 1923 - 2009 Sectorial Consumption Industrial 1970 - 2009 Industrial (Petroleum) 1970 - 2009 Industrial (Electricity) 1970 - 2009 Industrial (Natural gas) 1976 - 2009 Transportation 1970 - 2009 Transportation (Petroleum) 1970 - 2009 Transportation (Electricity) 1970 - 2009 Residential 1970 - 2009 Residential (Petroleum) 1970 - 2009 Residential (Electricity) 1970 - 2009 Agricultural 1970 - 2009 Agricultural (Petroleum) 1970 - 2009 Agricultural (Electricity) 1970 - 2009 Other sectors 1970 - 2009 Other sectors (Petroleum) 1970 - 2009 Other sectors (Electricity) 1970 - 2009 Non-energy 1970 - 2009 3000 PCL PLT PPM PNG PHC PGL PWD PEY Series Name Production - Coal 2500 2000 Series Code parison to other series in recent years. The decrease in wood production for energy usage indicates substitution for this resource with other energy resources such as natural gas. Trends for other series increase with some fluctuations over the periods analyzed and display steep increase thereafter. However, electricity and geothermal production series have no serious fluctuation indicating successful production policies on these energy variables and these production process variables’ structural strength towards disruptive shocks. 1500 Table 1. Descriptive Statistics 1960 1970 1980 Years 1990 2000 2010 1950 1960 1970 1980 Years 1990 2000 2010 Time series plot for the production of energy variables of Turkey are shown in Figure 1. Decrease in petroleum, coal and wood production series are remarkable in com- 74 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 75 �Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey Petroleum Geothermal Hydraulic 4000 Consumption - Hydraulic 1000 2000 3000 0 1000 Production - Geothermal 400 600 800 Consumption - Petroleum 15000 20000 25000 30000 1970 1980 1990 Years 2000 1970 2010 1980 1950 1960 1970 1980 Years 1990 2000 2010 1963 1973 1983 Years 1993 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2003 15000 Consumption - Coal 5000 10000 Consumption - Lignite 5000 10000 0 0 1970 1980 1990 Years 2000 2010 5500 Consumption - Wood 4000 4500 5000 0 1970 1980 1990 Years 2000 2010 1970 1980 1990 Years 0 0 Consumption - Electricity 50000 100000 Consumption - Natural Gas 10000 20000 30000 150000 1990 Years 3500 200 Natural Gas 40000 Electricity 1980 Wood Consumption - Geothermal 400 600 800 Figure 2. Energy Consumption (Source: MENR) 1970 Geothermal 1000 Time series plot for consumption of energy variables of Turkey are shown in Figure 2. Only consumption of geothermal and wood series for energy usage significantly decrease among all energy variables. The decrease in wood consumption is consistent with its decrease in production, owing to alternative energy resources such as natural gas production. The increase in consumption of electricity, natural gas and petroleum are remarkable compared to other variables, and indicate the importance of these energy resources for economy in Turkey. Although the price of natural gas in Turkey is the highest in the world (Altunsoy, 2008), the remarkable increase in its consumption indicates it is still cheaper than other energy resources in Turkey. Coal 15000 Lignite 1923 76 1990 Years 0 3000 200 10000 5500 3500 Production - Wood 4000 4500 5000 35000 Wood 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 Years 1983 1993 2003 2013 1975 1985 1995 Years 2005 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Time series plot for sectorial consumption of energy variables of Turkey are shown in Figure 3. The increase in energy consumption in industry indicates how the importance of industry has increased in the economy. At the end of 1990s, use of petroleum decrease significantly in industry. When compared to other energy resources, the significant increase in natural gas consumption in industry indicates a substitution between energy resources because of increasing oil prices and energy Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 77 �Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey 80 30000 Total Residental Consumption - Residential 15000 20000 25000 10000 0 Figure 3. Sectorial Energy Consumption (Source: MENR) Transportation Electricity Consumption - Transportation (Electricity) 20 40 60 policies promoting natural gas consumption. Total energy consumption in every sector increased with a positive trend indicating the rapid growth in the Turkish economy in the last decade. Structural breaks are clear in 1994, 1999, 2001 and 2008 when economic crises occurred. Industrial Petroleum 1970 2000 1980 1990 Years 2000 2010 1980 1990 Years 2000 2010 Residental Electricity 8000 10000 1970 2010 1970 2010 Consumption - Residential (Electricity) 2000 4000 6000 1990 Years 2000 0 1980 1990 Years Consumption - Residential (Petroleum) 2000 4000 6000 8000 2000 Consumption - Industrial 10000 20000 0 1970 1980 Residental Petroleum Consumption - Industrial (Petroleum) 4000 6000 8000 30000 10000 Total Industrial Industrial Natural Gas 1970 2000 1985 1995 Years 2005 2000 2010 2000 2010 1970 1980 1990 Years 2000 1970 2010 Journal of Economic and Social Studies 1980 1990 Years 2000 2010 2000 2010 35000 10000 Consumption - Other sectors 15000 20000 25000 30000 Consumption - Agricultural (Electricity) 100 200 300 400 0 1990 Years 2010 Total Other Sectors 0 78 1980 2000 5000 1990 Years 500 Consumption - Transportation (Petroleum) 5000 10000 15000 20000 20000 Consumption - Transportation 5000 10000 15000 1980 Agriculture Electricity Transportation Petroleum 0 1970 1990 Years 0 1970 Total Transportation 1980 Agriculture Petroleum 5000 1975 2010 1970 2010 Consumption - Agricultural (Petroleum) 1000 2000 3000 4000 1990 Years 2000 0 1980 1990 Years Consumption - Agricultural 1000 2000 3000 4000 0 0 1970 1980 Total Agriculture Consumption - Industrial (Natural gas) 2000 4000 6000 Consumption - Industrial (Electricity) 2000 4000 6000 8000 Industrial Electricity 1970 Volume 3 1980 Number 2 1990 Years 2000 Fall 2013 2010 1970 1980 1990 Years 79 �Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey λ (= λ1 TB1 / T , λ= TB 2 / T ) ) LS To determine the location of the breaks (= 2 procedure utilizes a grid search as follows: Other Sectors Petroleum 1970 1980 1990 Years 2000 2010 LMτ = inf τλ ( λ ) (8) Break points are where the corresponding test statistic is minimal. 2000 0 Consumption - Other sectors (Electricity) 2000 4000 6000 8000 Consumption - Other sectors (Petroleum) 4000 6000 8000 10000 Other Sectors Electricity 1970 1980 1990 Years 2000 2010 Results Econometric Methodology The LS unit root test is based on Lagrangian Multiplier (LM) for trending data. J. Lee and Strazicich (2003, 2004) extended Schmidt and Phillips (1992) methodology by considering structural breaks. The form of the test allows endogenous determination of two structural breaks under both the null and alternative hypotheses for a change in both the level and trend. DYt =δ ′DZt + ϕ St −1 + ε t , (5) where Z t = [1, t , D1t , D2t , DT1t , DT2t ] is a vector of exogenous variables, δ = [ µ , γ , d1 , d 2 , d3 , d 4 ] is a parameter vector of Zt and the subsequent dummies, which allow two time changes in the level and trend, are as follows: 1 t ≥ TBj + 1 = D jt  = and DT jt 0 t < T + 1  Bj (6)  t − TBj t ≥ TBj + 1 , j 1, 2. = t < TBj + 1  0 ψ x= Y1 − Z1δ and St =Yt −ψ x − Ztδ where δ are coefficients in the regression of DYt on DZ t . The null and alternative hypotheses are: H 0 : β − 1 = ϕ = 0 vs H1 : β − 1 = ϕ < 0 The results of the unit root tests with one and two structural breaks and without structural break are presented in Table 2. Three distinct unit root tests are used in this study to distinguish the impacts of structural break(s) on the energy series. We considered breaks at level and trend of the series. The number of lags is determined according to the general to specific method up to specific number of maximum lag1 running by t-statistics significance at the 10% significance level. The unit root hypothesis is rejected only for consumption of natural gas by conventional unit root tests without structural break. The LS unit root test with one structural break rejected the unit root hypothesis for 15 out of the 33 series. When two structural breaks are taken into account, 25 out of the 33 series are found stationary. This series is stationary around deterministic trend with breaks. The production of hydraulic and the consumption of lignite, electricity, petroleum, and coal, total energy consumption in the transportation sector and consumption of petroleum in the transportation sector are found to be non-stationary. According to the results, structural breaks in energy variables of Turkey should be taken into consideration when the unit root properties are examined. If the time series of the variable with structural breaks are tested by conventional unit root tests, the unit root hypothesis may be not cannot rejected (Perron, 1989). Our results verify the theory that the number of rejection of unit root null hypothesis declines when the number of structural breaks is increased. (7) 1 80 Journal of Economic and Social Studies The number of maximum lag depends on number of observation of the series. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 81 �Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey Table 2. Results of unit root tests Series PHC PGL PLT PWD PPM PCL PNG PEY CHC CGL CLT CWD CPM CCL CNG CEY IND IND_PET IND_ECT IND_NGS TPT TPT_PET TPT_ECT OSC OSC_PET OSC_ECT RES RES_PET RES_ECT ACL ACL_PET ACL_ECT NEY SP k 0 0 2 8 8 0 8 9 0 3 9 2 6 9 8 11 0 5 6 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 8 1 t statistics -1.52 -2.12 -1.45 -0.73 1.83 -1.99 -2.16 -0.45 0.14 -1.94 -1.93 -0.53 -0.93 -1.80 -3.13c -0.08 -2.22 -1.72 1.45 -1.53 -1.68 -2.56 -2.07 -1.40 -1.15 -0.98 -1.46 -1.07 -1.11 -1.64 -2.73 -1.94 -3.74a LS - one break k t statistics 6 -3.87 3 -3.58 2 -3.44 9 -4.20c 7 -3.37 9 -4.73b 8 -6.65a 9 -3.68 0 -2.33 2 -5.74a 9 -3.87 5 -4.26c 10 -4.30c 10 -2.94 5 -5.76a 11 -4.68b 5 -5.03b 9 -4.14 0 -3.98 4 -3.19 0 -4.11 3 -4.25c 9 -3.95 0 -2.53 1 -4.78b 9 -3.94 0 -2.42 9 -4.97b 9 -3.95 4 -3.61 7 -4.48c 8 -4.95b 2 -5.01b Conclusion TB 1999 2006 1991 1990 1988 1994 1994 1987 1966 1989 1998 1989 1991 1989 1987 1981 2000 2003 1985 1993 1997 1997 2002 2001 2000 1985 2001 1993 1985 1995 1994 1992 2003 LS - two breaks k t statistics 6 -5.04 9 -8.71a 3 -6.35a 6 -5.79b 7 -5.40c 8 -6.46a 2 -16.39a 9 -4.51 7 -5.39b 2 -6.88a 9 -4.62 10 -6.18b 6 -4.65 5 -5.06 2 -9.17a 11 -4.87 5 -5.69b 9 -6.41a 5 -5.97b 6 -8.61a 8 -4.68 8 -5.15 6 -6.99a 6 -8.54a 2 -7.47a 9 -6.40a 6 -8.44a 9 -11.48a 9 -7.02a 7 -6.82a 7 -5.39c 9 -5.64b 3 -6.60a TB1 1983 1987 1987 1984 1988 1988 1988 1944 1968 1975 1979 1972 1965 1975 1988 1981 1991 1989 1984 1994 1987 1987 1986 1982 1996 1982 1982 1987 1982 1993 1993 1994 1997 TB2 1993 2006 2001 1996 1994 1994 2003 1973 1993 1987 1999 1990 2002 1993 1990 1989 2000 1994 2000 1999 1991 1991 2002 1999 2000 1995 1999 1993 1995 2006 1999 2006 2003 Specification of unit root properties of energy consumption and production is crucial for energy policy formulations and implementations. The impact of shocks on energy variables with a stationary process will be temporary and long short term, while impact of shocks on energy variables with a nonstationary process will be permanent and have a long memory. In this study, the unit root properties of total and sectorial energy production and consumption series of Turkey are investigated. This study is the first to investigate unit root properties of Turkish energy production and consumption in detail. The unit root structure for energy variables are tested by using the unit root tests based on LM without structural break and with one and two structural breaks. The results of unit root test without structural break show that the unit root hypothesis is rejected only for consumption of natural gas. In the case of one structural break, the unit root hypothesis is rejected for 15 out of the 33 series by LS test. When two structural breaks are taken into account, 25 out of the 33 series are found to be stationary around a deterministic trend with breaks. The production of hydraulic, the consumption of lignite, electricity, petroleum, coal, electricity, total energy consumption and petroleum consumption in the transportation sector are found to be non-stationary, which indicates that the impact of innovations on these variables will be permanent. The policy implication of these results suggests that the impacts of shocks on energy consumption and production will be temporary and not have a long memory for most of the variables. Therefore, the economic impact of energy stabilization and conservation policies will be temporary in Turkey. The results of this study, which found that most of the variables are stationary, are consistent the consensus about stationarity of energy variables found in numerous other studies (Narayan et al., 2010). In addition, the historical data on these stationary variables can be taken into account to forecast the future values of these variables. Notes: k indicates the number of lags. a, b and c denote significance at the 1% 5% and 10% level, respectively. TB denotes time breaks. 82 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 83 �Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey References Altunsoy, İ. (2008, 1 May 2008). Turkey consumes most expensive gas in the world, TodaysZaman. Retrieved from http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById. action?load=detay&link=140592 Ewing, B. T., & Thompson, M. A. (2007). Dynamic cyclical comovements of oil prices with industrial production, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices. Energy Policy, 35(11), 5535-5540. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.018 Faria, J. R., Mollick, A. V., Albuquerque, P. H., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2009). 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Retrieved from http://econ.appstate.edu/ RePEc/pdf/wp0417.pdf Evangelia, P. (2001). Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece. Energy Economics, 23(5), 511-532. doi: 10.1016/s0140-9883(01)00078-0 Lorde, T., Jackman, M., & Thomas, C. (2009). The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago. Energy Policy, 37(7), 27082716. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.004 84 Volume 3 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number 2 Fall 2013 85 �Journal of Economic and Social Studies Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry Lowinger, T. C., Wihlborg, C., & Willman, E. S. (1985). OPEC in world financial markets: Oil prices and interest rates. Journal of International Money and inance, 4(2), 253-266. doi: 10.1016/02615606(85)90047-6 Maslyuk, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production. nergy conomics, 31(1), 109-118. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2008.09.004 Mishra, V., Sharma, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries. nergy Policy, 37(6), 2318-2326. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.022 Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Popp, S. (2010). Energy consumption at the state level: The unit root null hypothesis from Australia. Applied nergy, 87(6), 1953-1962. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.10.022 Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Prasad, A. (2008). Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands. nergy conomics, 30(5), 2686-2696. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2008.03.003 Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Smyth, R. (2008). Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries. nergy conomics, 30(3), 919-936. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2007.07.005 Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU, Sakarya University, Faculty of Business Administration, Department of Accounting and Finance, / 54187 Esentepe/Sakarya, Turkey. hilmik@sakarya.edu.tr Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2007). Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries. nergy Policy, 35(1), 333-341. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.11.027 Özturk, İ., Feridun, M., & Kalyoncu, H. (2008). Do Oil Prices Effect the USD/YTL Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey. 18(115), 48-61. Papapetrou, E. (2001). Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece. nergy conomics, 23(5), 511-532. doi: 10.1016/s0140-9883(01)00078-0 Park, J., & Ratti, R. A. (2008). Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries. nergy conomics, 30(5), 2587-2608. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2008.04.003 Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Shock and the unit root hypothesis. conometrica, 57(6), 1361–1402. Rafiq, S., Salim, R., & Bloch, H. (2009). Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy. esources Policy, 34(3), 121-132. doi: 10.1016/j. resourpol.2008.09.001 Sadorsky, P. (1999). Oil price shocks and stock market activity. nergy conomics, 21(5), 449-469. doi: 10.1016/s0140-9883(99)00020-1 Schmidt, P., & Phillips, P. C. B. (1992). LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends. xford Bulletin of conomics and tatistics, 54(3), 257-287. doi: 10.1111/j.14680084.1992.tb00002.x Zhang, Q. (2011). The Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuation on China’s Economy. nergy Procedia, 5(0), 1360-1364. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2011.03.235 86 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Zülküf ÇEVİK, Sakarya University, Faculty of Business Administration, Department of Accounting and Finance, / 54187 Esentepe/Sakarya, Turkey. zcevik@sakarya.edu.tr A A ontemporarily, the competition in the markets has thoroughly heated up. Many companies try to decrease their costs in order to survive in this cruel market. In this respects, the quality costs gain importance in all over the world and in urkey, too.In this study, the implementation of quality costs measuring and reporting system has been performed in a company. Accordingly, the data has been collected from a urkish manufacturing company. The data gathered from this company’s accounting department has been used for studying on quality costs measuring and reporting system. onsequently, it is found out that the company cannot measure its quality costs adequately, for this reason quality reporting system in the company is not efficient. The company needs to give more significance to the quality costs measuring and reporting. JEL odes: 15, M41, M49, Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 KEYWO D otal Quality Management, Quality osts, Managerial Accounting. A I LE HI O Y ubmitted:23 eptember 2012 esubmitted:16 ovember 2012 Accepted:25 ecember 2012 87 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2387 Title A name given to the resource Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey Author Author Polat, Özgür Uslu, Enes E. KALYONCU, Hüseyin Abstract A summary of the resource. This study analyzes unit root properties of total and sectorial energy production and consumption series of urkey. This study is the first to analyze unit root properties of urkish energy production and consumption in detail. The unit root analysis of energy production and consumption are tested by using unit root tests based on M considering without structural break and with one and two structural breaks. According to unit root test without structural break, the unit root hypothesis is rejected only for consumption of natural gas. The unit root hypothesis is rejected for 15 out of the 33 series by the test with one structural break. When unit root test with two structural breaks are conducted, 25 out of the 33 series are found to be stationary around a deterministic trend. The production of hydraulic and the consumption of lignite, electricity, petroleum, coal and electricity, total energy and petroleum consumption in ransportation sector are found to be nonstationary, which indicates that the impacts of innovations on these variables will be permanent. The policy implication of the results suggests that the impacts of shocks on energy consumption and production will be temporary and not have a long memory for most of variables. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/abee03c1bcaefe5a267cf0a75e8bbab3.pdf a578330220460a8a70b800f707709fc0 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies Özgür Polat / Enes E. Uslu / Hüseyin Kalyoncu Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry Lowinger, T. C., Wihlborg, C., & Willman, E. S. (1985). OPEC in world financial markets: Oil prices and interest rates. Journal of International Money and inance, 4(2), 253-266. doi: 10.1016/02615606(85)90047-6 Maslyuk, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production. nergy conomics, 31(1), 109-118. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2008.09.004 Mishra, V., Sharma, S., & Smyth, R. (2009). Are fluctuations in energy consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries. nergy Policy, 37(6), 2318-2326. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.02.022 Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Popp, S. (2010). Energy consumption at the state level: The unit root null hypothesis from Australia. Applied nergy, 87(6), 1953-1962. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.10.022 Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Prasad, A. (2008). Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands. nergy conomics, 30(5), 2686-2696. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2008.03.003 Narayan, P. K., Narayan, S., & Smyth, R. (2008). Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries. nergy conomics, 30(3), 919-936. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2007.07.005 Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU, Sakarya University, Faculty of Business Administration, Department of Accounting and Finance, / 54187 Esentepe/Sakarya, Turkey. hilmik@sakarya.edu.tr Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2007). Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries. nergy Policy, 35(1), 333-341. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.11.027 Özturk, İ., Feridun, M., & Kalyoncu, H. (2008). Do Oil Prices Effect the USD/YTL Exchange Rate: Evidence from Turkey. 18(115), 48-61. Papapetrou, E. (2001). Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece. nergy conomics, 23(5), 511-532. doi: 10.1016/s0140-9883(01)00078-0 Park, J., & Ratti, R. A. (2008). Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries. nergy conomics, 30(5), 2587-2608. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2008.04.003 Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Shock and the unit root hypothesis. conometrica, 57(6), 1361–1402. Rafiq, S., Salim, R., & Bloch, H. (2009). Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy. esources Policy, 34(3), 121-132. doi: 10.1016/j. resourpol.2008.09.001 Sadorsky, P. (1999). Oil price shocks and stock market activity. nergy conomics, 21(5), 449-469. doi: 10.1016/s0140-9883(99)00020-1 Schmidt, P., & Phillips, P. C. B. (1992). LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends. xford Bulletin of conomics and tatistics, 54(3), 257-287. doi: 10.1111/j.14680084.1992.tb00002.x Zhang, Q. (2011). The Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuation on China’s Economy. nergy Procedia, 5(0), 1360-1364. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2011.03.235 86 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Zülküf ÇEVİK, Sakarya University, Faculty of Business Administration, Department of Accounting and Finance, / 54187 Esentepe/Sakarya, Turkey. zcevik@sakarya.edu.tr A A ontemporarily, the competition in the markets has thoroughly heated up. Many companies try to decrease their costs in order to survive in this cruel market. In this respects, the quality costs gain importance in all over the world and in urkey, too.In this study, the implementation of quality costs measuring and reporting system has been performed in a company. Accordingly, the data has been collected from a urkish manufacturing company. The data gathered from this company’s accounting department has been used for studying on quality costs measuring and reporting system. onsequently, it is found out that the company cannot measure its quality costs adequately, for this reason quality reporting system in the company is not efficient. The company needs to give more significance to the quality costs measuring and reporting. JEL odes: 15, M41, M49, Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 KEYWO D otal Quality Management, Quality osts, Managerial Accounting. A I LE HI O Y ubmitted:23 eptember 2012 esubmitted:16 ovember 2012 Accepted:25 ecember 2012 87 �Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU / Zülküf ÇEVİK Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry Introduction Literature review In recent years, competitive environment of companies has been getting harder and harder. In order to have sustainable competitive advantage, companies should produce their products to entirely supply customers’ needs, wants and demands. Subsequently, companies need to have more quality products to remain competitive with other companies. To gain a competitive advantage over rival companies, a company should produce high quality products. While producing high quality product, the company should also take into account its quality costs. Shortly, companies need to produce high quality products in a low quality costs. As a result, quality and quality costs gain vital importance for a company to survive in a highly competitive market. The significance of this study is to comprehend the necessity of the quality system for a company which operates in the global and local markets. Another gist of the study is to provide recognition of quality costs system benefit to the profit and brand name. The quality costs system causes decreasing in the production cost and increasing in the brand name which will be perceived as producing qualified products. The aims of this study are to show the importance of the quality costs for a company which competes in a highly competitive market, and also demonstrate the necessity of quality costs system so as to have high qualified product with a low quality costs. As it is well known, the quality cost is not the responsibility of a department or an individual, on the contrary, every person in an organization should be responsible for quality. Highly qualified products can be reached by the collaboration of all departments in an organization. In this sense, the main aim of this study is to demonstrate the function of accounting department in quality costing activities. Those activities can be summarized as; the measurement of quality costs, the classification of this costs and the reporting techniques of the quality costs. In this respect, the purpose of the current study is to show the importance of quality costs’ reporting. The paper contributes to the literature by documenting the concepts of quality, quality costs, and the classification of quality costs and quality costs measurement. On the basis of literature review, a case study will be handled and lastly, the analysis and results will be given in last section. 88 Journal of Economic and Social Studies To be able to analyze the measuring and reporting costs of quality, some concepts should be clear first. The three basic concepts of this paper will be introduced. These concepts are quality and quality costs, classification of quality costs and lastly, quality costs measurement. The concept of quality has been defined for many quality gurus. So, there are many definitions for quality. Quality is the features of products which meet customer needs and thereby provide customer satisfaction. Quality means freedom from deficiencies (Juran & Godfrey, 1998). According to D. C. Montgomery, Quality means fitness for use, and also he defined quality as inversely proportional to variability (Montgomery, 2005). In addition to those definitions, some of other quality gurus defined quality as; - Crosby (1979, p. 7)defines quality as “conformance to requirements” - Feigenbaum’s(1983, p. 7) definition of quality is “the total composite product and service characteristics of marketing, engineering, manufacture and maintenance through which the product and service in use will meet the expectations of the customer.” - As Ishikawa (1985, p. 45) suggests, quality means “quality of work, quality of service, quality of information, quality of process, quality of division, quality of people, including workers, engineers, managers and executives, quality of system, quality of company, quality of objectives, etc.” - Pirsig’s definition (1984,p. 206) of quality is that “Quality is a characteristic of thought and statement that is recognized by a nonthinking process. Because definitions are a product of rigid, formal thinking, quality cannot be defined.” To sum up those definitions, quality is the whole good and service characteristic features of fulfillment power for stated and demanded needs. In other words, many quality gurus defined quality in terms of the degree of the product’s conformance to its requirements to maintain customer satisfaction and in terms of a product that contains no defects (Ömürgönülşen, 2009). Quality Cost is a cost for detection and anchoring of low quality about goods and services. Simply, costs of quality are the costs which occur because poor quality may or does exist (Hansen & Mowen, 2006). Quality costs are a measurement of the costs particularly related with the accomplishment or non-accomplishment of Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 89 �Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU / Zülküf ÇEVİK Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry product or service quality. To make those explanations more specific, Jack Campanella(1999, p. 4) defined cost of quality as; “More specifically, quality costs are the sum of the cost incurred by (a) investing in the prevention of non-conformances to requirements, (b) appraising a product or service for conformance to requirements, and (c) failing to meet requirements.” In the definitions of Campanella, it is understood that the quality costs consist of three main parts; Prevention Costs, Appraisal Costs, Failure Costs. The required quality activities would incur costs and quality costs arecategorized into three main parts – Prevention, Appraisal and Failure Costs – Those can be also stated as PAF (Prevention-Appraisal-Failure) model (Jaju & Lakhe, 2009). Failure costs should be taken into consideration as two subtopics which are called internal and external failure costs. Figure 1. Classification of Quality Costs (Rodchua, 2006) Cost of Quality Prevention costs AppraisalCosts Failure Costs Internal Failure External Failure In Figure 1, three main classifications of quality activities costs have been shown. Those costs do not occur at the same period of the production process. So, it should be also classified as time periods in which they occurred. purchased materials, processes, intermediates, products and services to assure conformance with the specified requirements (Tsai, 1998). Internal Failure Costs are the costs of low quality product which are realized before sales of the product. In other words, these costs arise when the outcomes of production fail to meet stated quality specifications and are noticed before transfer of those low quality products to the customers (Vahevanidis et al., 2009). External Failure Costs are failure costs which come up after delivering the products to the customers(Kaner, 1996).Those costs take place for the reason that the products and services do not conform to specification or requirements and those products do not satisfy customer needs after being delivered to customers (Hansen & Mowen, 2006). It is also incurred by amending failures after transferring the finished goods and products to the customers (Low & Yeo, 1998). Additionally, Quality cost classification can be grouped in time periods. For example, prevention costs encompass the stage of both pre-production and during production and appraisal costs cover the three stages of production –preproduction, production and after production stage. Failure costs are divided into two subtopics which internal failure costs and external failure costs. Internal failure costs encompass the period of both production and after production stages. External failure costs just related with the stage of after sale (Barfield et al., 2002). Figure 2. Time-Phased Model for Quality Costs(Barfield et al., 2002) Before Production During Production Prevention Costs Prevention Costs are the preliminary activities’ costs to reach quality goals for producing goods and services and avoid deviations of those goals (Kırlıoğlu, 1998). Prevention costs are occurred to prevent low quality in the goods or services being produced (Hansen & Mowen, 2006). Prevention costs are related with quality planning, designing, implementing and managing the quality system, auditing the system, supplier surveys, and process improvements (Rodchua, 2006). After Production After Sale Appraisal Costs Internal Failure Costs External Failure Costs Feedback Loop Appraisal Costs are activity costs of measuring the suitability of the product to customers’ needs. It is incurred to identify non-conformance to requirements (Oliver & Qu, 1999). Those costs are related with the supplier’s and customer’s assessment of The Quality Costs Measuring helps to find out where unnecessary quality costs are occurred, thus management can take actions to eliminate that kind of costs and this 90 Volume 3 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number 2 Fall 2013 91 �Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU / Zülküf ÇEVİK Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry elimination will reduce the occurrence of poor quality costs. In other saying, the quality costs measurement serves management to determine which area of operation requires preventive measures (Low & Yeo, 1998). To measure quality costs, one should collect related data from quality activities of a company. After the collection of data which are related with quality costs components, they should be analyzed before using in an action. This analysis consists of the relationship between a costs component and other costs components and searches the effect on total costs. Quality costs are analyzed in weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, etc. periods. Company structure should be taken into account in determining the period of analysis (Şimşek, 2001). In order to analyze quality costs, companies need to use some techniques. The analysis techniques for quality costs can be listed as; I. Pareto Analysis, II. Ratio Analysis, III. Correlation Analysis, IV. Trend Analysis, V. Regression Analysis. Pareto Analysis is one of the most used techniques in quality costs analysis. This technique was developed by Wilfredo Pareto who is a nineteenth century Italian social scientist and economist. He gave his surname to the technique. Pareto principle is universally known as the 80/20 rule. Pareto found out this principle by pinning down that 80 percent of Italy’s national income is shared by 20 percent of the Italy’s populations. With the help of Pareto diagrams, problems can be put in order of importance, problems of costs analysis can be easily performed and relative occurrence numbers could be searched simply (Sarıkaya, 2003). In other words, Pareto analysis can be utilized to recognize cost drivers which are accountable for the most of cost occurred by ranking the cost drivers in order of value (Tsai, 1998). The Technique of Ratio Analysis is aimed to identify the aspects of the quality costs’ performance to aid decision making.Ratio analysis consist of rationing quality costs to revenue, production costs, direct labor costs and rationing total quality costs within themselves (Özcan, 2012). Correlation analysis represents the direction and the power of the relationship between variables. In correlation analysis, the results do not give cause-effect relation- 92 Journal of Economic and Social Studies ship, because there is no dependent and independent variable in this technique (Altunışık et al., 2005). Trend Analysisis a useful picture of how the quality improvement program has been doing since its inception. It provides management with information concerning the within-period progress measured relative to specific goals (Hansen & Mowen, 2006). Regression analysis examines the relationship between one dependent variable and one or more than one independent variables. In other words, this technique tries to explain the changes in dependent variable with the help of independent variables (Altunışık et al., 2005). Data and Methodology The data of this study is gathered from X Electric Inc. Company which was founded in 1990 in Adapazarı, Turkey. The company is a Low Voltage Circuit Breaker manufacturer company. The data has been collected from this company’s accounting department. The company’s accounting director gave the raw data of the company quality costs. We have analyzed these costs for reporting quality costs. According to the data, we drew table 1, 2, and 3. With the help of these tables, we made ratio and trend analysis of company’s quality costs. The data consists three years which are 2008, 2009, 2010. In the study, trend and ratio analysis have been performed for measuring and reporting the firm quality costs. Analysis of Quality Costs in the Firm The table below displays the company’s sales and production amount in Turkish Liras (here after TL). The sales and production amount have been given for three years. Additionally, the table contains of total quality costs in the firm for three years. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 93 �Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU / Zülküf ÇEVİK Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry Table 1. Some Ratios and Ratio Components in the Firm Table 2. Total Quality Costs as Each Cost Items for the Components in the year of 2010 Years Data Total Sales (TL) 2008 2009 2010 629.053.415 695.866.750 786.859.486 Total Production Costs (TL) 515.326.274 563.708.245 643.590.468 Total Quality Costs (TL) 10.028.516 11.712.822 12.642.655 1,59% 1,95% 1,68% 2,08% 1,61% 1.96% The Ratio of Quality Costs to Sales The Ratio of QC to Production Costs According to the firm information, the ratios of total quality costs to total sales have been calculated for given three years. And the ratios of total quality costs to total production costs have also been calculated. In the aspect of the information in the previous section, these calculations have been performed as follows. In 2008, the company’s total sales are 629.053.415 TL. In the same year, total quality costs are 10.028.516 TL. So the ratio of total quality costs to sales can be found out as follows; 10.028.516 629.053.415 = 1,59% It can be concluded that the amount of total quality costs is only 1.59% of the total sales in 2008. 10.028.516 515.326.274 = 1,95% The calculation above demonstrates that the ratio of total quality costs to total production costs is about 1.95%. For the years of 2009 and 2010, total quality costs to sales and total quality costs to total production costs have been calculated by the same way and written down in the figure above. This ratio is not too much for an early stage of quality costs analysis applier’s company. In other words, the firm analyses its quality costs not long ago, so the rates is in the acceptable limits. Besides this ratios can be reduced for more efficient quality costs system. When analyzing quality costs data for year 2010 as quality costs components, it will be useful for monitoring quality costs. Regarding this classification, quality costs component will be given as costs items. With the help of this costs items, the percentage amount of each costs item will be also calculated and given for the year. 94 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Components of Quality Costs Prevention Costs Quality Planning Quality Circle The Training of Quality Inspection and Tests Instructions Supplier Quality Planning Preventive Maintenances Other Prevention Costs Appraisal Costs Inspection and tests of purchased materials Costs (TL) 1.782.614,36 518.348,86 75.855,93 202.282,48 113.783,90 214.925,14 480.420,89 176.997,17 5.031.776,69 1.036.697,71 Ratio (%) 14,1 4,1 0,6 1,6 0,9 1,7 3,8 1,4 39,8 8.2 Control, maintenance and calibration of measurement instruments 101.141,24 0,8 Process inspection and tests Consumable materials for laboratory and tests Products inspection and tests Other appraisal costs Internal Failure Costs Salvage Reproduction and Repairs Re-inspection Corrective actions External Failure Costs Products Returns Transportation Damage Warranty Costs 1.150.481,61 581.562,13 1.984.896,84 176.997,17 4.450.214,56 2.225.107,28 1.656.187,81 480.420,89 88.498,59 1.378.049,40 998.769,75 50.570,62 328.709,03 9,1 4,6 15,7 1,4 35,2 17,6 13,1 3,8 0,7 10,9 7,9 0,4 2,6 Total Quality Costs 12.642.655 100,0 In the figure 2010, the non-conformance costs are under the half of the total quality costs. This demonstrates that the firm is going in the right way. The company gives more importance for conformance costs day by day, so the non-conformance costs decreases naturally. These changes will benefit the company in more ways than one. The figures below should be reported to the managers for monitoring quality costs activates by management. The importance of quality costs increases day by day. The next table shows the total quality costs as categorization groups. As it is mentioned before, the quality costs have two components which are conformance and non-conformance costs. And these components costs are given in the chart. Moreover, conformance costs are divided into two cost elements that are prevention costs and appraisal costs. The amounts of these costs are also given yearly in the table. The Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 95 �Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU / Zülküf ÇEVİK Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry conformance costs are increasing for the given years. It rose up two times from the amount of 2008 to 2010 amount. It is good for a company to increase its prevention activities in order not to confront defects after selling the products out. Besides, the amount of prevention costs in conformance costs is too small. The firm should concentrate more on prevention costs. Table 3. The Amount of Quality Costs in Classification through the Years Quality Costs Conformance Costs Prevention Costs Appraisal Costs Non-Conformance Costs Internal Failure Costs External Failure Costs Total Quality Costs 2008 3.098.811,45 631.796,51 2.467.014,94 6.929.704,56 4.693.345,49 2.236.359,07 10.028.516 2009 5.177.067,33 1.147.856,56 4.029.210,77 6.535.754,67 4.767.118,55 1.768.636,12 11.712.822 2010 6.814.391,05 1.782.614,36 5.031.776,69 5.828.263,96 4.450.214,56 1.378.049,40 12.642.655 On the other hand, in the table above, the non-conformance costs have been shown in two parts which are internal and external failure costs. The company has endured too much internal failure costs. And, the company should increase its preventive activities and decrease the internal failure costs. When it comes to external failure costs, the firm is going in a right way, because the amounts of external failure costs are going down for each given year. With the help of Table 3, it can be seen that conformance costs – prevention and appraisal costs – are increasing for each year. Additionally, non-conformance costs – internal and external failure costs – are decreasing for each year. It also shows that the huge amounts of total quality costs are occurred after production stage. The internal failure costs are the biggest costs in the total quality costs for every year. This situation represents that the defects are realized after the stage of production. Figure 3. The Trends of Quality Costs’ Categorization in percentage In general, the movements of quality costs components are in a right way, even though the non-conformance costs are more than conformance costs. In the chart, it can also be seen that the amount of prevention costs is under the 15% of the total quality costs which means the firm do not pay enough importance for the prevention activities. Although the trend of external failure costs is declining, the external failure costs have too much portion of total quality costs. Having too much external failure costs brings more costs than the firm can measure. Figure 4. The Trends of Quality Costs’ Categorization in TL In Chart 2, it is again shown the trend of quality costs components. Chart 1 shows the trends as percentage value; Chart 2 shows these trends as Turkish Liras amounts. The inferences of the Chart 2 are similar to Chart 1. The Application esults The quality costs activities in X Electric Inc. are concentrated in non-conformance activities. In other words, the firm is highly interested in internal and external costs. So, non-conformance costs are monthly reported to management. Besides, the firm does not give required importance for prevention and appraisal costs’ measurement. Therefore, conformance costs are just reported yearly period, even though the firm is giving more importance to conformance costs than before. On the other hand, while paying the non-conformance costs more importance than the conformance costs in the firm, the company endures more costs than it can measure. That is to say, the firm can bear the quality costs more than in numbers; there may be a non-visual negative effect on the firm. For instance, the firm may confront the loss of customers, bad brand recognition and poor employee motivation and so 96 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 97 �Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU / Zülküf ÇEVİK Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry on. Furthermore, the efficient quality system causes to benefit the company in more ways than one. It decreases the non-conformance costs and increases profitability of the firm. The firm would have sustainable competitive advantage in the market. It is found out that the company cannot measure its quality costs adequately, for this reason quality reporting system in the company is not efficient. The company needs to give more importance to the quality costs measuring and reporting activities. Conclusion Previously, the company thought that quality control was just a waste of time. But this thought changed in course of time. With the help of effective quality control system, company can reduce the salvage, loss of labor hours and so on, which increase the productivity level. Yearly reporting of total quality costs is not efficient for making decisions on these costs. The measurement of prevention and appraisal costs is not made appropriately. The allocation key is generally labor costs which are not suitable for measurement of every costs item in the quality costs. The firm should establish an efficient quality costs system and determine this system specification for effective measurement and reporting of quality costs. By having reliable and sufficient data in quality costing, company can reduce its non-conformance costs. And it causes to reduce total quality costs and increase profitability of the firm. The firm should prepare instructions and procedures for making measurement more efficient especially in prevention and appraisal costs. Every person in the firm should be informed about these instructions and procedures. On the other hand, only the quality assurance department is responsible for quality costing in the firm. As it is mentioned in the previous parts, quality is not a person or a department job; it should be responsibility of every person and every department in the firm. The quality costs reports should be prepared and reported monthly. The accounting department should determine more suitable allocation keys for the measurement of quality costs and according to this measurement, the accountants in the firm should make the necessary journal entries for these costs. 98 Journal of Economic and Social Studies By measuring and reporting quality costs, the managers can recognize that there is a huge amount of costs which they do not take into consideration while making managerial decisions. They can realize that the non-quality issues increase the evitable costs by too much. In the short run, investing in preventing activities can increase total quality costs in the firm, but in the long run, these investments will cause decreasing in failure costs. So, the firm will reduce its evitable costs in the long run. In the globalizing world, the firm should take the products quality into account. Also, it needs to be noted here that a company cannot survive in a highly competitive market with its low quality products. Last, but not the least, it must be kept in mind that the amounts of quality costs never excess the amount of poor quality costs. References Altunışık, R., Coşkun, R., Bayraktaroğlu, S., & Yıldırım, E. (2005). Sosyal Bilimlerde Araştırma Yöntemleri: SPSS Uygulamalı. Sakarya: Sakarya Kitapevi. Barfield, J., Raiborn, C., & Kinney, M. (2002). Cost Accounting: Traditions & Innovations. South-Western College Pub. Campanella, J. (1999). Principles of quality costs: principles, implementation and use. American Society for Quality press. Crosby, P. B. (1979). Quality is Free. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co. Feigenbaum, A. V. (1983). Total Quality Control. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co. Hansen, D. R., & Mowen, M. M. (2006). Cost Management: Accounting and Control. Thomson SouthWestern. Hoyer, R. W., & Hoyer, B. B. (2001, July). What Is Quality. Quality Progress, 53-62. Ishikawa, K. (1985). What is Total Quality Control? The Japanese Way. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall Inc. Jaju, S. B., & Lakhe, R. R. (2009). Quality costs in a manufacturing industry: a gateway for improvement. International Journal of Applied Engineering Research , 945-954. Juran, J. M., & Godfrey, A. B. (1998). Juran’s Quality Handbook. New York: McGraw-Hill Professional. Kaner, C. (1996). Quality cost analysis: Benefits and risks. Software QA, 23. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 99 �Journal of Economic and Social Studies Hilmi KIRLIOĞLU / Zülküf ÇEVİK Kırlıoğlu, H. (1998). Kalite Maliyetleri Muhasebesi. Değişim Yayınları. Low, S. P., & Yeo, H. K. (1998). A construction quality costs quantifying system for the building industry. International Journal of Quality & eliability Management, s. 329 - 349. Montgomery, D. C. (2005). Introduction to tatistical Quality ontrol. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Oliver, J., & Qu, W. (1999). Cost of quality reporting: Some Australian evidence. International Journal of Applied Quality Management, 233-250. Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Bilal Sisman Economics and Administrative Science Faculty Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey bsisman@aku.edu.tr Ömürgönülşen, M. (2009, May). A research on the measurement of quality costs in the Turkish food manufacturing industry. otal Quality Management & Business xcellence, 547-562. Özcan, S. (2012). An Empirical Research about Quality Cost Analysis and Its Impact on Managerial Decisions in Automotive Supplier Industry. International onference on Management, Applied and ocial ciences (I MA ’2012) March 24-25,(363-367. Dubai. Sinan Yoruk Education Faculty, Department of Education Science Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey syoruk@aku.edu.tr Pirsig, R. M. (1974). en and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. New York: William Morrow & Co. Rodchua, S. (2006, Oct-Dec). Factors, Measures, and Problems of Quality Costs Program Implementationin the Manufacturing Environment. Journal of Industrial echnology, 510-515. Sarıkaya, N. (2003) oplam Kalite önetimi. 1. Baskı. Sakarya: Sakarya Kitabevi. Ali Eleren Economics and Administrative Science Faculty Afyon Kocatepe University, Turkey aeleren@hotmail.com Şimşek, M. (2001). oplam Kalite önetimi. İstanbul: Alfa Yayınları. Tsai, W. -H. (1998). Quality Cost Measurement Under Activity-Based Costing. International Journal of Quality and eliability Management, 719-752. Vahevanidis, N. M., Petropouolos, G., Avakumovic, J., & Mourlas, A. (2009). Cost Of Quality Models And Their Implementation In Manufacturing Firms. International Journal for Quality esearch, 27-36. A A With the growing popularity of Internet communication among KEYWO D adolescents, the Internet, social media, instant messaging and cell phones ocial Anxiety, ommunication have become important social tools in their life. This study examines teens’ use of social interactive technologies and the role that social anxiety plays on ools, echnology, Adolescents how adolescents communicate with others (technology or face-to-face). A questionnaire was designed and distributed to selected sample in the cities A I LE HI O Y of Afyonkarahisar, Manisa and şak in order to analyze the relationship ubmitted: 22. Jun 2012 between adolescents’ social anxiety and their preference of communication esubmitted: 25 eptember 2012 tool. The data were gathered from 544 respondents among High chool esubmitted: 9 ctober 2012 adolescents (ranged from 15-18; freshman, sophomore, junior and senior). Accepted: 22 ovember 2012 indings show that adolescents rarely use messenger sites and mail addresses. They generally send instant messages with their cell phones. They spend 1-2 hours for listening music and averagely 30 minutes for acebook in a day. More than half of teens have hi-tech cell phones that enable to call, send message and access to Internet. The findings of the present study also reveal that females use text messaging more than males. However, males spend much more time than females to play games. In addition, females feel themselves more uncomfortable than males for face-to-face talking with others. And, on the contrary to males, females also prefer to some extent, to communicate with other on internet instead of face-to-face talking. imilarly, females prefer more than males to make new on internet. JEL odes: 12, I12 100 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 101 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2388 Title A name given to the resource Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry Author Author KIRLIOĞLU, Hilmi ÇEVİK, Zülküf Abstract A summary of the resource. Contemporary, the competition in the markets has thoroughly heated up. Many companies try to decrease their costs in order to survive in this cruel market. In this respects, the quality costs gain importance in all over the world and in Turkey, too.In this study, the implementation of quality costs measuring and reporting system has been performed in a company. Accordingly, the data has been collected from a urkish manufacturing company. The data gathered from this company’s accounting department has been used for studying on quality costs measuring and reporting system. onsequently, it is found out that the company cannot measure its quality costs adequately, for this reason quality reporting system in the company is not efficient. The company needs to give more significance to the quality costs measuring and reporting. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/0d0ce3f2e719f3f27ee1960d62fd438c.pdf 08acb57a1597013fa324f6fefcc484f4 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies co Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Fall 2013 Hasan GÖCEN Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Meliksah University, 38280 Kayseri, Turkey hgocen@meliksah.edu.tr CONTENTS Refereed Articles 5 Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Hasan Göcen, Hüseyin Kalyoncu And Muhittin Kaplan, 15 Store Personality: Perceptions Towards Consumer Electronics Chain Stores in Turkey:A Case of University Students Keti Ventur , Ipek K z nco lu, lif stund l and ezan tl d l 39 The Role of Twin Deficit Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey Halil A and Mehmet B KBA 53 Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms Aygül An t n and Murat K r öz 69 Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey zgür Pol t, nes . slu, Hüseyin K lyoncu, 87 Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry Hilmi K rl o lu and ülküf Çe , 101 Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Bilal s n, inan oru and Ali leren 115 State as the Source of Wealth: In Ottoman Economic Thought: A different approach to reflections in the aftermath of the global crisis Birol Çet n 131 Impact of Military Expenditure and Economic Growth on External Debt: New Evidence from a Panel of SAARC Countries Khalid n, Iqtidar Ali , Muhammad Mushtaq K n and Mehboob A d, 149 Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Akighir avid erf , kpe. I 166 List of Reviewers for This Issue Hüseyin KALYONCU Department of International Trade and Business, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Meliksah University, 38280 Kayseri, Turkey hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr Muhittin KAPLAN Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Meliksah University, 38280 Kayseri, Turkey mkaplan@meliksah.edu.tr Abstr ct The issue of whether public savings offset private savings, and visa vice, KEYWO D has important implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy. This study avings, ffset oefficient, icardian examines long-run relationship between public and private savings rates using , annual urkish data for the period 1975-2005. The result of ngle-Granger quivalence, . cointegration test has shown that there is no long-run relationship between M private and public savings ratios. However, once endogenously determined A I LE HI O Y structural break is allowed, the test results confirm the existence of the ubmitted: 29 Jun 2012 cointegration relationship between private and public savings. conometric esubmitted: 13 estimation of the offset coefficients using both M and yields values ecember 2012 of between -0.11 and -0.82. The results also indicate that the potency of fiscal Accepted: 25 policy significantly reduced with the liberalization of financial markets. ecember2012 JEL odes: 6, H6, 21. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 5 �Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Introduction Methodology and Data The relationship between private and public savings has been central issue in both the theoretical and the empirical literature. The importance of the subject stems from the fact that the effectiveness of fiscal policy is closely related to the responsiveness of private saving to changes in fiscal stance. The relationship between lower public deficits and national savings, however, remains controversial both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, while Keynes (1936) assumes no relationship between private and public savings, Friedman (1957) and Modigliani (1946) develop models showing full substitution between private and public savings. Barro (1974) also introduced the notion of perfect substitutability between private and public savings, which is called Ricardian Equivalence Proposition (REP). Empirical studies on testing the REP estimate the following model: Although there area number of opposing views in the theoretical literature, ultimately, it is an empirical issue to determine the extent to which private savings offset public savings. In the empirical literature, the relationship between private and public savings is investigated for different countries using different econometric methodologies. However, there is no consensus over the size offset coefficient (for a survey see Seater, 1993, Holmes 2006 and Ricciuti 2007). Studies on advanced economies have shown that about half of the change in public savings is offset by an opposite change in private saving (Masson et. al. (1998); Hemming et. al. (2002); Holmes (2006); Mandal and Payne (2007); Seater and Mariano (1985); Leiderman and Razin (1988); Makin and Narayan (2009); De Castro andFernandez (2009)). Although empirical studies are limited in number, offset coefficients were found to be higher for developing countries than for developed countries (Loayza et. al. (2000); Lopez et. al. (2000); De Mello et. al.(2004); Edwards (1996); Masson et. al. 1998; Bulir and Swiston (2009)). This study provides evidence on the validity of the REP by applying powerful econometric techniques of DOLS and FMOLS to time series data of a developing country, Turkey. This paper is organized as follows. Following section sets out the econometric methodology and the data employed in this study. Then, we presented the findings of the study in the empirical section. Last section concludes. (1) where refers to private sector savings as a proportion of GDP, is public sector savings as a ratio to GDP; is the long-run public-private offset (substitution) coefficient is the intercept term and represents usual error term. takes value between 0 (no offset) and -1 (full offset). If , then a decrease in public sector savings is fully offset by an increase in private sector savings. The data employed in our empirical analysis is an annual private and public sector as a percentage of GDP obtained from State Planning Organization (SPO) publications for the years 1975 and 2005. Before estimating the long-run offset function given in equation (1), we first need to investigate the time series properties of the private and public sector saving ratios. Results obtained from unit root tests which are performed to determine whether savings variables have a unit root are presented in Table 1a and Table 1b. While Table 1a presents the results obtained from the ADF, DF-GSL, PP, KPSS and ERS unit root tests, Table 1b shows the Ng-Perron unit root test results. Examination of the Tables show that the null hypothesis of unit root could not be rejected for both private and public sector savings ratios. Table 1.a. Unit Root Test Results Constant -1.432876 -1.367547 -1.454917 0.538798 8.002194 ADF DF-GLS PP KPSS ERS PSR Constant and Trend -1.133958 -1.595668 -1.253357 0.110454 13.83224 Constant -1.473065 -1.384922 -1.479741 9.029962 8.084297 GSR Constant and Trend -2.322051 -1.798766 -1.480789 0.380299 12.96383 Note: ADF, DF-GSL, PP, KPSS and ERS stand for Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979), Phillips Perron (1988), Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (1992), Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock point optimal (ERS, 1996) unit root tests. 6 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 7 �Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Table 1.b. Ng-Perron Unit Root test Results PSR GSR Asymptotic critical values*: 1% 5% 10% MZa -3.24375 -3.23349 MZt -1.25975 -1.27022 MSB 0.38836 0.39283 MPT 7.53622 7.57531 -13.8000 -8.10000 -5.70000 -2.58000 -1.98000 -1.62000 0.17400 0.23300 0.27500 1.78000 3.17000 4.45000 Note:The number of lags used in Ng-Perron (2001) unit root test is determined by Schwarz Information Criteria(SIC) and turned out to be zero for all specifications. Having established that private and public savings ratios are I(1) variables, we need to test for cointegration between private and public savings to avoid spurious regression. To determine whether there is long-run relationship among these variables, the Engle-Granger (1987) methodology is employed. Testing for cointegration within this methodology involves extracting the residuals from equation (1) and testing for unit root in residuals. The Engle-Granger bivariate cointegration equation and the ADF tests applied to residuals are reported in Table 2. The optimal lag determined by using Schwarz and Akaike information criteria turned out to be zero. The cointegration test statistic is -2.086 with a probability value of 0.251 implying non-rejection of the null of unit root in residuals. Hence, there appears to there is no long-run relationship between private and public sectors savings ratios. Table2. Engle- Granger Cointegration Test Dependent Variable PSR Constant 20.157 (0.531)* ADF test statistics (probability): -2.086 (0.251) Test Critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level GSR -1.009 (0.101)* The cointegration test results obtained from the Johansen and Juselius (1990) method for the model (1) is presented in Table 3. The examination of the table indicates that the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected by both the maximum eigenvalue and the trace statistic for the model implying that there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings. Table 3. Johansen-Juselius Maximum Likelihood Co integration Tests Trace Test Alternative Null r=0 r≥1 r≤1 r≥2 Statistic 11.946 1.881 Critical Values 15.494 3.841 -3.671 -2.964 -2.621 Furthermore, we employed Johansen multivariate cointegration tests to explore if there is a long run relationship between private and public savings. The number of Journal of Economic and Social Studies Maximum Eigenvalue Test Null Alternative Statistic r=0 r=1 10.065 r≤1 r=2 1.8810 Critical Values 14.264 3.8415 Notes: Asterisks (*) denotes statistical significance at 5%. R stands for the number of cointegrating vectors. However, the cointegration tests have a low power in the presence of a structural break (Gregory and Hansen, 1996). For this reason, we applied Gregory-Hansen cointegration procedure to test whether there is long-run relationship among private and public savings. Specifically, Gregory and Hansen (1996) provide the following three structural break alternatives given by equations (2a-2c): (2a) Note: The values in parenthesis are standard errors. * indicate significant at 1% level. 8 lags used in the underlying the vector auto regression (VAR) model were determined as one for the model according to both the Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). The corresponding values of SBC and AIC criterion are 9.160 and 8.867 respectively. (2b) (2c) where D represents a dummy variable equal to 0 if is less than or equal to unknown timing of change , otherwise it is equal to one; is time trend; other variables are defined as before. The first co integration regression (2a) is allowed to have a level break, the second model includes level shift and time trend and third model includes regime shift variable. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 9 �Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Given that the structural break point is unknown, Gregory-Hansen procedure involves computing the cointegration test statistics for each possible break and taking the minimum test statistics (ADF test) across all possible break points. That is, the break point is unknown and determined by finding the minimum value for the ADF statistic. The Akaike Information criterion (AIC) is used to determine the number of lags of the change in the residual used in computing the ADF statistic and turned out to be zero for all three models. The results of the GregoryHansen Cointegration procedure for all specifications indicate that the null of no cointegration is rejected with an endogenous break year of 1989. The ADF statistics for equations (2a-2c) are -5.082, -5.34836 and -5.15361 respectively and they are statistically significant at 5 percent level. Table 4.a. FMOLS and DOLS Estimates for Level Shift Model, 1975-2005 Constant GSR D FMOLS 16.129 (1.002)* -0.709 (0.129)* 5.112 DOLS 15.734 (0.682)* -0.741 (0.0967)* 5.377 (1.268)* (0.891)* Note: *, **, *** indicate significance at 1%, 5% and 10% level of significance respectively. The values in parenthesis are standard errors. Table 4.b. FMOLS and DOLS Estimates for Level Shift with trend Model, 1975-2005 Empirical Results Constant Having found evidence of co integration and having established that private and public saving are I(1), the equations (2a-2c) are estimated using the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) proposed by Stock and Watson (1993) and the FMOLS proposed by Phillips and Hansen (1990).In the estimation of equations (2a-2c) with the Dynamic OLS (DOLS), we used two lead and lag terms. The number of lead and lag-terms are determined by using AIC and SBC criterion. The results obtained from FMOLS and DOLS estimators are presented in Tables 4a-4c. Examination of the Tables indicates that while the FMOLS coefficients of offset (betas) ranges between -0.82 and -0.46, the DOLS coefficients of betas ranges from -0.74 to -0.11 yielding a partial offset. For models (2a) and (2b), coefficient on government savings is statistically significant at 1% level. However, the offset coefficient is insignificant in the model (2c). The long-run offset coefficient estimated by FMOLS (DOLS) is -0.458 (-0.11) but they are both statistically insignificant. However, there was statistically significant (at 5% level) change in the slope coefficient, , after 1989 for DOLS estimates. Thus allowing for the slope change in the regime shift specification in the DOLS case, the long-run coefficient is -0.72 (. The structural break dummy, D, is significant across alternative estimates implying the presence of structural break in the data. Taken together, the results show that a structural break did occur in the long-run relationship between private and public saving in 1989. 10 FMOLS 18.263 (1.310)* -0.819 (0.124)* 7.320 (1.503)* -0.193 (0.084)** Journal of Economic and Social Studies GSR D TREND DOLS 13.892 (1.393)* -0.577 (0.148)* 4.693 (1.049)* 0.137 (0.088) Note:Seethenote in Table3.a. Table 4.c. FMOLS and DOLS Estimated for Regime Shift Model, 1975-2005 FMOLS 14.571 (2.977)* -0.458 (0.462) 6.627 (3.032)** -0.268 (0.483) Constant GSR D DGSR DOLS 11.685 (2.263)* -0.109 (0.349) 9.355 (2.318)* -0.613 (0.322)** Note:Seethenote in Table3a. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 11 �Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Concluding Comments Engle, R. F. & Granger,C. W. J. (1987), Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimating and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276. This study examines the long-run relationship between private and public sector saving ratios using FMOLS and DOLS methodologies. Empirical findings of this study can be summarized as follows: First, there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings unless endogenous structural break in the cointegration relationship is allowed in Turkish case. Secondly, the extent of offset coefficients ranges from -0.82 to -0.11 supporting weak form of Ricardian equivalence. Statistically significant change in the slope coefficient in DOLS case also shows that the substitution (offset) between private and public savings are stronger after 1989. This point is particularly worth mentioning because financial repression in Turkish economy was fully removed at this date. Thirdly, the results of the paper suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy implementations by the government has decreased significantly after achieving financial liberalization in 1989.The statistically significant and relatively large coefficient () on regime shift variable can be taken as an evidence for this argument. Friedman, M. (1957), A Theory of the consumption function, Princeton University Press, New Jersey. Gregory, A. W. & Hansen,B. E. (1996), Residual based tests of cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126. Hemming, R., Kell,M. & Mahfouz,S. (2002),The effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating economic activity, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/208, IMF. Holmes, M. J. (2006), To what extent are public savings offset by private savings in the OECD, Journal of Economics and Finance, 30, 285-296. Johensen, S. &Juselius, K.(1990), Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169210. Keynes, J. M. (1936),The general theory of employment, interest and money, Macmillan, Houndsmills, UK. Kwiatkowski, D. P. C. B. Phillips, Schmidt,P. &Shin,Y. (1992), Testingthenullhypothesis of stationaryagainstthealternative of a unitroot, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178. Leiderman, L.,&Razin,A. (1988), TestingRicardianneutralitywith an intertemporalstochastic model, Journal of Money, CreditandBanking, 20, 1-21. References Loayza, N., Schmidt-Hebbel,K., &Serven,L. (2000), What drives private saving across the World?,Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 165-181. Makin, A. J. &Narayan,P. K. (2011), How potent is fiscalpolicy inAustralia?, EconomicPapers, 30, 377-385. Lopez, J. H., Schmidt-Hebbel, K. &Serven,L. (2000), How effective is fiscal policy in raising national saving?,Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 226-238. Barro, R. (1974), Are government bonds net wealth?,Journal of Political Economy, 81, 1095-1117. Mandal, A. & Payne,J. E. (2007), The long-run relationship between private and public savings: an empirical note, Journal of Economics and Finance, 31, 99-103. Bulir, A. &Swiston,A. (2009),Emergingmarket countriesdon’tbelieve in fiscalstimuli: should web blameRicardo?,CzechJournal of Economicsand Finance, 59, 153-164. De Castro, F. &Fernandez,J. L. (2009), Therelationshipbetweenpublicandprivatesaving in Spain: DoesRicardianEquivalenceHold, Banco De EspanaWorkingPaperSeriesno: 0923. De Mello, L.,KongsrudP. M.,&Price,R. (2004), Savingbehaviourandtheeffectiveness of fiscalpolicy, EconomicsDepartmentWorkingPaper, no. 397. Dickey, D. A. &Fuller,W. A. (1979), Distribution of theestimatorsforautoregressive time serieswith a unitroot, Journal of theAmerican Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. Edwards, S. (1996),Why are Latin American’s savings so low? An international comparative analysis, Journal of Development Economics, 51, 5-44. Masson, P.,Bayoumi,T. &Samici,H. (1998), International evidence on the determinants of private saving, World Bank Economic Review, 12, 483-501. Modigliani, F. (1946),Life cycle, individual thrift and the wealth of nations, American Economic Review, 76, 297-313. Ng, S. &Perron,P. (2001), Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power, Econometrica, 69(9), 1519-1554. Phillips, P. C. B. & Hansen,E. E. (1990), Statistical inference in instrumental variable regression with I(1) processes, Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125. Phillips P. C. B. &Perron,P. (1988), Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrica, 75, 335-346. Elliot, G., Rothenberg,T. J. & Stock,J. H. (1996), Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root, Econometrica, 64, 813-836. Ricciutti, R. (2003), Assessing Ricardian Equivalence, Journal of Economic Surveys, 17, 55-78. 12 Volume 3 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number 2 Fall 2013 13 �Journal of Economic and Social Studies Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Seater, J. (1993), Ricardian Equivalence, Journal of conomic iterature, 31, 142-90. Seater, J.&Mariano,R. S. (1985), New tests of the life cycleandtaxdiscountinghypotheses, Journal of Monetary conomics, 15, 195-215. Stock, J. H. & Watson,M. W. (1993),A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems, conometrica, 6, 783-820. Store Personality: Perceptions Towards Consumer Electronics Chain Stores in Turkey A Case of University Students Keti VENTURA Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration keti.ventura@ege.edu.tr Ipek KAZANCOGLU Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration ipek.kazanoglu@ege.edu.tr Elif USTUNDAGLI Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration elif.ustundagli@ege.edu.tr Rezan TATLIDIL Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration rezan.tatlidil@ege.edu.tr Abstr ct The purpose of this study is to identify, develop and compare the deter- KEYWO D minants of store personality of the most preferred consumer electronics tore personality, onsumer chain stores, as perceived by young consumers in urkey. A question- lectronic hain tores, onfirmatory actor Analysis, naire survey including a 22-item store personality scale was conducted urkey among 855 students using a convenience sampling method. xploratory factor analysis ( A) and confirmatory factor analysis ( A) A I LE HI O Y was performed. indings suggest that greater accuracy of information is ubmitted: 31 July 2012 needed in the purchasing decision related to high involvement products esubmitted: 05 ovember 2012 such as consumer electronics. Also it was found that younger consumers esubmitted: 18 ecember 2012 prefer reliable stores that give accurate information, value for money, Accepted: 21 ecember 2012 and provides price-quality fit. This study addresses the neglected area of store personality development and validation for consumer electronics relates through an understanding of young consumers perceptions towards store personality determinants. JEL odes: M31, M39 14 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 15 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2383 Title A name given to the resource Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Author Author GÖCEN, Hasan KALYONCU, Hüseyin KAPLAN, Muhittin Abstract A summary of the resource. The issue of whether public savings offset private savings, and visa vice, has important implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy. This study examines long-run relationship between public and private savings rates using annual urkish data for the period 1975-2005. The result of ngle-Granger cointegration test has shown that there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings ratios. However, once endogenously determined structural break is allowed, the test results confirm the existence of the cointegration relationship between private and public savings. conometric estimation of the offset coefficients using both M and yields values of between -0.11 and -0.82. The results also indicate that the potency of fiscal policy significantly reduced with the liberalization of financial markets. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e2046b94b514edc86ac853134ab71563.pdf aec938016432cbe78875e9325ef239fe PDF Text Text Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS Johansen, S. (1995) ikelihood Basic Inference in ointegration Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, New York. Kutlar, A. and M. Şimşek (2001) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıklarının Dış Ticaret Açıklarına Etkileri, Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: 1984–2000, okuz ylül Üniversitesi, İİB ergisi, 16 (1), 1–13. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms 1(*) Merza, E., Alawin, M. and Bashayreh, A. (2012) The Relationship Between Current Account and Government Budget Balance: The Case of Kuwait, International Journal of Humanities and ocial cience, 2(7), 168-177. Aygul ANAVATAN Akdeniz University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, 07058, Antalya, Turkey aygulanavatan@akdeniz.edu.tr, Peker, O. (2009) Türkiye’deki Cari Açık Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, Kocaeli Üniversitesi osyal Bilimler nstitüsü ergisi, 17(1), 164-174. Murat KARAOZ Puah, C., Lau, E. and Tan, K. L. (2006) Budget-Current Account Deficits Nexus in Malaysia, Munich Personal eP c Archieves, 37677(27), 1-27. Utkulu U. (2003) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları ve Dış Ticaret Açıkları Gerçekten İkiz mi? Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Bulguları”, . .Ü. İİB ergisi, 1(18), 45–61. Sever, E. And M. Demir (2007) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı ile Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi ie İncelenmesi, skişehir smangazi Üniversitesi İİB ergisi, 2(1), 47-63. Vamvoukas, G. (1999) The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Greece, Applied conomics, 31, 1093-1100. Yücel F. and Ata, A. Y (2003) Eş-Bütünleşme ve Nedensellik Testleri Altında İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması, Çukurova Üniversitesi osyal Bilimler nstitüsü ergisi, 12(12). Zengin, A. (2000) İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi (Türkiye Uygulaması), Gazi Üniversitesi konomik aklaşım ergisi, 11(39), 37–67. Akdeniz University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, 07058, Antalya, Turkey, mkaraoz@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstr ct The most widely used model in multivariate analysis of survival data is proportional hazards model proposed by ox. While it is easy to get and interpret the results of the model, the basic assumption of proportional hazards model is that independent variables assumed to remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. ne of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable and a parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using ox regression considering time-varying variables. The firm data comes from Business evelopment enters (İŞG M) which is a prominent business incubation center operating in urkey. KEYWO D urvival Analysis, ox egression Model, Proportional Hazard Assumption, ew irms A I LE HI O Y ubmitted:22 Jun 2012 esubmitted:03 January 2013 Accepted:25 March 2013 Jel ode: 41, 24, M13 1 This research paper has been an extension to the findings of the scientific research project “The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, 109K139, which has been funded with grant from TÜBİTAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey). We also acknowledge the administrative support to the project from Turkish Small and Medium Entreprises Development Organisation (KOSGEB). (*) Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 53 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia because the event of interest death, disease or some other event of interest usually is death,usually disease isincidence, or someincidence, other negative individual negative individual experience (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). experience (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). Introduction Survival analysis deals with the probability of occurrence of a given event at a set of particular points in a time interval (Cox and Oakes, 1984; Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005). In the small business and entrepreneurship literature, survival analysis has been used to track the start-ups over the years. The typical survival anaylsis may include the reports of hazard rates, ratios and survival curves while relating a likely set of independent variables to a specific event. A survival curve of a cohort of newly established firms reports what percentage of the cohort continue to survive since its inception over time, indicating whether some of the firms are failed over the years (Karaöz and Albeni, 2011). In many survival studies, it has been examined whether some variables or risk factors are effective on survival or not. Cox proportional hazards (PH) model is the most preferred model in order to investigate the effect of variables on survival time. The key assumption of Cox model is that hazard rate related to different levels of the factors is constant throughout the follow-up period (Başar, 2006). Violation of the PH assumption requires additional measures for unbiased results of Cox survival regression. In this paper, Cox regression has been applied to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. Violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. When survival time (�) is defined as a random variable with cumulative distribution function �(�) = ��(�� � ��) and probability density function �(�) = � �(�)⁄� (�), survival function �(�) is explained by Equation (2.1) (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007); �(�) = �(� � �) = 1 � �(�) Survival function �(�) gives the probability that the random variable � exceeds the specified time � (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). All survival functions have the characteristics that i) they are nonincreasing; that is, they head downward as � increases, ii) at time � = 0, �(�) = �(0) = 1; that is, at the start of the study, since no one has gotten the event yet, the probability of surviving past time 0 is one, iii) at time � = ∞, �(�) = �(∞) = 0; that is, theoretically, if the study period increased without limit, eventually nobody would survive, so the survival curve must eventually fall to zero (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). The hazard function �(�), with its complement of survival function �(�), is given by Equation (2.2), where �� denotes a small interval of time (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); ℎ(�) = lim���� Survival Analysis Survival analysis is a collection of statistical procedures for data analysis for which the outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs (Harrell, 2001). This event may be failure, and for this reason, the analysis of such data is often referred to as survival analysis (Bellera et al., 2010). The main objectives of the survival analysis are i) to estimate and interpret survival characteristics: Kaplan-Meier plots, median estimation and confidence intervals (CI), ii) to compare survival in different groups: Log-rank test, iii) to assess the relationship of explanatory variables to survival time: Cox regression model (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007). In a survival analysis, it is usually referred to the time variable as survival time, because it gives the time that an individual has “survived” over some followup period (Geiss et al., 2009). It is also typically referred to the event as a failure, because the (2.1) �(��������|���) (2.2) �� The hazard function ℎ(�) gives the instantaneous potential per unit time for the event to occur, given that the individual has survived up to time � (Tabatabai et al., 2007). In contrast to the survival function, which focuses on not failing, the hazard function focuses on failing, that is, on the event occurring. Thus, in some sense, the hazard function can be considered as giving the opposite side of the information given by the survival function (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). The Cox Proportional Hazards Model The Cox Proportional Hazards Model The Cox PH model is usually written in terms of the hazard model formula shown at Equation This model gives expression the hazard time � The Cox PH model(2.3). is usually written in an terms of the for hazard modelatformula shown at Equation (2.3). This model gives an expression for the hazard at time t 2 54 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 55 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia for an individual with a given specification of a set of explanatory variables denoted by �. That is, � represents a collection of predictor variables that is being modeled to predict an individual’s hazard (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); � ℎ(�, �) = ℎ� (�)� ∑��� �� �� (2.3) The Cox model formula says that the hazard at time � is the product of two quantities. The first of these, ℎ� (�), is called the baseline hazard function. The second quantity is the exponential expression � to the linear sum of �� �� , where the sum is over the � explanatory � variables (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In general, a hazard ratio (��) is defined as the hazard for one individual divided by the hazard for a different individual. The two individuals being compared can be distinguished by their values for the set of predictors, that is, the X’s. Hazard ratio is shown by the following formula, where �∗ denotes the set of predictors for one individual, and � denotes the set of predictors for the other individual (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); � * � � * � = h�t,X � = h0 (t) ��p�∑ βi Xi � = ��p�∑p β�i �X i* -Xi �� HR i=1 � � (t) � (t,X) h h0 ��p�∑ βi X i � (2.4) �∗ = ���∗ , ��∗ , � , ��∗ ��and�� = ��� , �� , � , �� � denote the set of �’s for two individuals. Once the model is fitted and the values for �∗ and � are specified, the value of the exponential expression for the estimated hazard ratio is a constant, which does not depend on time. If we denote this constant by ��̂, then hazard ratio can be written as shown below (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); A key reason for the popularity of the Cox model is that, even though the baseline hazard is not specified, reasonably good estimates of regression coefficients, hazard ratios of interest, and adjusted survival curves can be obtained for a wide variety of data situations. Another way of saying this is that the Cox PH model is a “robust” model, so that the results from using the Cox model will closely approximate the results for the correct parametric model (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In addition to the general “robustness” of the Cox model, the specific form of the model is attractive for several reasons (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). First, the � exponential part � ∑��� �� �� of hazard model ensures that the fitted model will always give estimated hazards that are non-negative. Another tempting property of the Cox model is that, even though the baseline hazard part of the model is unspecified, it is still possible to estimate the �’s in the exponential part of the model. Lastly, it is preferred over the logistic model when survival time information is available and there is censoring. That is, the Cox model uses more information (the survival times) than the logistic model, which considers a (0,1) outcome and ignores survival times and censoring. Evaluating the Proportional Hazards Assumption For variables not satisfying the non-proportionality assumption, the power of the � �� = ��p�∑��� ��� (��∗ � �� )� (2.5) Evaluating thetests Proportional Hazards corresponding is reduced, that is, it isAssumption less likely to conclude for a significant If hazard ratio is greater than 1, the group which has the distinction of 1 category of the variable will higher significantly likely to be exposed to interest event by comparison 0 category of that variable. If the hazard ratio is equal to 1, chance of closing the two groups are equal; if it is between 0 and 1, the group receiving 0 category value has a lower closing probability by comparison 1 category. 3 56 The basic assumptions of the Cox regression model can be explained as follows (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007); i) the effects of independent variables on the hazard function are loglinear. ii) The relationship between loglineer function of independent variables and the hazard function is multiplicative. iii) In addition to these two assumption, observations should independent of each other and hazard ratio should remains unchanged with respect to time, ie., is constant. This assumption related to hazard ratio is known as proportional hazard assumption. Journal of Economic and Social Studies effect when there is actually one. If the hazard ratio is increasing over time, the For variables not satisfying the non-proportionality power of the estimated coefficient assuming PH is overestimatingassumption, at first and the underestimating later on. For those of that the model constant hazard ratio, the power corresponding tests variables is reduced, is, it iswith less alikely to conclude for a significant of testswhen is also reduced as a consequence an inferior of the model et effect there is actually one. If the of hazard ratio isfitincreasing over(Bellera time, the al., 2010).coefficient assuming PH is overestimating at first and underestimating estimated later on. For those variables of the model with a constant hazard ratio, the power of tests is also reduced as a consequence of an inferior fit of the model (Bellera et al., 2010). 4 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 57 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia There are three general approaches to assess the PH assumption: 1) Graphical Approaches; Kaplan-Meier and log-log plots, observed versus expected plots, 2) Goodness of fit (GOF) test, 3) Statistical Methods; schoenfeld residuals, the logThere are three general approaches to assess the PH assumption: 1) Graphical rank test and time-dependent covariates. Approaches; Kaplan-Meier and log-log plots, observed versus expected plots, 2) Goodness of fit (GOF) test, 3) Statistical Methods; schoenfeld residuals, the logrank test and time-dependent covariates. Extension theCox Cox Proportional Hazards Model Extension ofofthe Proportional Hazards Model An important feature of this formula, which concerns the PH assumption, is that the baseline hazard is a function of �, but does not involve the �’s. The �’s in the formula are called time-independent �’s (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). It is possible, nevertheless, to consider �’s which do involve �. Such �’s are called time-dependent variables. If time-dependent variables are considered, the Cox model form may still be used, but such a model no longer satisfies the PH assumption, and is called the extended Cox model (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In the case of being time-dependent explanatory variables, Cox regression model expands to a model which contains time-independent variables and some functions of the time the product with these variables. Independent variables are, where �� � �� � � � ��� time-independent variables and �� (�)� �� (�)� � � ��� (�) time-dependent variables (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005); �(�) = ��� � �� � � � ��� � �� (�)� �� (�)� � � ��� (�)� as shown. Accordingly, Cox regression model is, � and � which denote vector of coefficients of explanatory variables (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005); � � � � ���� �(�)� = �� (�) exp �∑��� �� �� �(�)� �� �� + ∑��� (2.6) as written. Where �(�) is defined as a function of time. Selection of �(�) varies according to the state of the variables used and according to the information level of the researchers. This function usually is defined in the form of �, ���( �), ��(�) or step functions (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005). � � (�) = ����� �� � ∗ (�)� � ����(�)� (2.7) �� � �� = exp �∑��� �� ���∗ � �� � + ∑��� �� ���∗ (�) � �� (�)�� An Application Into New Firm Survival Under Incubation Although the survival analysis extensively has been used in medical research on individuals, recently it becomes widely popular in business success and survival research. Thus, rather than on individuals, in this paper, we apply Cox regression to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. There are studies applying survival violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. Our 414 observations on firm characteristics acquired from 12 different incubators, İŞGEMs, located across Turkey, in Zonguldak, Tarsus, Ereğli, Eskişehir, Adana, Mersin, Van, Avanos, Samsun, Elazığ, Yozgat and Diyarbakır provinces. The data includes almost all firms that currently existing İŞGEMs or the firms that resided in the past yet left İŞGEMs by graduation or failure. The survey data consists of the total. A business incubator can be identified as an organization which mentors the development of newly founded firms by specialized services such as providing office space, specialized staff, machinery, equipment, facilities and business assistance (Aernoudt, 2004). Thus a business incubator is a framework organization which contains a collection of newly established firms. İŞGEMs are one of the significant business incubation concept operating in Turkey. Variables Used in the Analysis For our analysis, factors affecting the initial success of young enterprises can be summarized as i) Human capital characteristics of new enterprise's owner such as education level and sector experience, ii) Firm characteristics such as scale, age and human capital, iii) Industry characteristics such as market growth rate and entry barriers, iv) Incubation features, v) Other external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations, regional factors and public policies (Hackett and Dilts, 2004; Aernoudt, 2004). All of the data and variables used in our analysis are taken from Karaöz and Albeni (2011) and descriptive statistics and definitions are presented at The general hazard ratio formula for extended Cox model is shown below (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); 58 5 Journal of Economic and Social Studies 6 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 59 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Although the survival analysis extensively has been used in medical research on individuals, recently it becomes widely popular in business success and survival research. Thus, rather than on individuals, in this paper, we apply Cox regression to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. There are studies applying survival violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. Our 414 observations on firm characteristics acquired from 12 different incubators, İŞGEMs, located across Turkey, in Zonguldak, Tarsus, Ereğli, Eskişehir, Adana, Mersin, Van, Avanos, Samsun, Elazığ, Yozgat and Diyarbakır provinces. The data includes almost all firms that currently existing İŞGEMs or the firms that resided in the past yet left İŞGEMs by graduation or failure. The survey data consists of the total. A business incubator can be identified as an organization which mentors the development of newly founded firms by specialized services such as providing office space, specialized staff, machinery, equipment, facilities and business assistance (Aernoudt, 2004). Thus a business incubator is a framework organization which contains a collection of newly established firms. İŞGEMs are one of the significant business incubation concept operating in Turkey. Table 1. The variables used in analysis and descriptive statistics VARIABLE 60 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number of Mean Minimum Maximum Observation If the firm is closed (failed) during or after 414 the incubation 1, otherwise 0 exit - 0 1 404 41,52 2 158 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 367 3,64 3 4,25 414 - 0 1 414 5,83 0 40 414 - 0 1 414 1,24 1 4 DEPENDENT VARIABLE The elapsed time from the firm’s entry into incubation until it’s closed (month) incubage INDEPENDENT VARIABLES If entrepreneur’s income only comes from the incubated firm 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur is female 1, male 0 (If gender there are both male and female partner 0) Entrepreneur’s age (If there is a partnerlnentage ship, it is taken as the oldest entrepreneur’s age-logarithmic scale) If entrepreneur is a college graduate 1, enteduuni otherwise 0 (if there is a partnership and one of the partners is college graduate 1) Entrepreneur’s prior experience before entexp arriving İŞGEM (year) If there is a role model for entrepreneurfamily ship in entrepreneur’s family or surrounding 1, otherwise 0 The number of partners within the estabpartner lished firm income FEATURES OF THE FIRM Variables Used in the Analysis For our analysis, factors affecting the initial success of young enterprises can be summarized as i) Human capital characteristics of new enterprise’s owner such as education level and sector experience, ii) Firm characteristics such as scale, age and human capital, iii) Industry characteristics such as market growth rate and entry barriers, iv) Incubation features, v) Other external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations, regional factors and public policies (Hackett and Dilts, 2004; Aernoudt, 2004). All of the data and variables used in our analysis are taken from Karaöz and Albeni (2011) and descriptive statistics and definitions are presented at Table 3.1. The entrepreneur’s age, gender, education, professional career history and experience and family environment factors are the main factors in the literature in terms of the survival of firms (Karaöz and Albeni, 2011). DEFINITION EVENT OF INTEREST CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ENTREPRENEUR An Application Into New Firm Survival Under Incubation export If the firm export 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 lnempini initial firm size (logarithmic scale) 392 1,31 0 5,70 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 If the firm is a brand owner 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 If firm’s founding capital is completely loan 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur is in cooperation with networking stakeholders within and outside the incubator 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur has made innovation 1, innova otherwise 0 If the firm has had an advertising 1, othadvert erwise 0 onlyloan brand Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 61 �EXTERNAL FEATURES incubsize sector compete prorank cycle The number of incubation’s workshop If the firm is in the manufacturing industry 1, in the service sector 0 Intensity of competition in the sector (1-5 Likert scale) (%) Share of the GDP per capita of the province in the Country GDP where the incubation center is located If the firm has experienced an economic crisis 1, otherwise 0 Figure 1. The survival curve of firms which is present or graduate from incubation (month) 0 1 Kaplan-Meier survival estimate 1.00 - 0 1 414 43,14 14 84 411 - 0 1 410 - 1 5 414 1,51 0,59 2,07 414 - 0 1 0.75 - 0.50 whenest If entrepreneur has used at least one of the common services offered by incuba- 414 tion 1, otherwise 0 If the incubated firm entered the incubation center within first 3 years (36 months) 414 of incubation center 1, otherwise 0 0.25 comserv Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia 0.00 INDUSTRIAL INCUBATION PROPERTIES SERVICES AND PROPERTIES Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Source: Karaöz M. and Albeni M.,” The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, TÜBİTAK Project No: 109K139, Isparta, March 2011. (exit) variable is used as dependent variable. It takes the value of 1 if the firm is closed within the period in incubation or after the firm has graduated from incubation, the value of 0 in other cases. In addition to (exit), exit time (incubage) is the other main variable in our survival analysis. As seen at Table 3.1, for our dataset, the firms’ average life expectancy is 41.52 months. The maximum survival time observed as 158 months. Some of the firms failed either during or some time after leaving the incubator. Yet some of the firms still continue their activity either at incubator or outside the incubator. Survival curve of firms has been presented at Figure 3.1. According to the figure, surivors after 158 months diminish to about 20%. 50 0 analysis time 100 150 Results All Cox Regression results with and without considering time effects are presented in Table 3.2. (gender), (lnentage), (family), (export), (lnempini), (advert), (brand), (comserv), (sector), (compete) and (cycle) variables are insignificant in Model 1, which the time-dependent effects have not taken into account. According to Model 1 estimates, entrepreneur’s gender, age, whether s/he is affected family environment; initial firm size, whether the firm exports and does advertising, whether the firm is brand owner; whether the firm takes advantage of common services offered by incubators; the sector in which the firm, intensity of competition in the sector and whether the firm experienced any macroeconomic crisis are not significant on the firms’ survival times. Our tests indicate that further estimations are necessary using time-dependent variables. Thus we produce further new estimates and present most relevant two model results at Table 3.2. Model 2 includes the variables which in Model 1 and all of the interaction terms created by each of these variables multiplying , which is a function of time, in order to handle variable-time interaction. The Model 3 are obtained by removing the interaction terms of (lnempini), (innova), (enteduuni), (whenest), (export), (brand), (gender), (sector), (advert), (networking), (entexp), (income), (onlyloan), (partner), (family), (lnentage), (comserv), (compete) and (cycle) variables from the model. Model 3 is the best model that takes into account timedependent effects. The variables of (incubsize) and (prorank) are found to be the time-dependent variables. 62 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 63 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Table 2. The estimates of the basic model and Cox model with time-dependent variables Variable Coefficient Variable income gender lnentage enteduuni entexp family partner export lnempini onlyloan networking innova advert brand comserv whenest incubsize sector compete prorank cycle 1.18 -0.056 0.265 0.659 -0.084 -0.307 -1.71 0.827 0.214 -1.03 -1.47 -1.67 0.636 0.865 0.264 -1.18 0.010*** 0.892 0.732 0.044** 0.042** 0.402 0.015** 0.308 0.278 0.063* 0.004*** 0.006*** 0.17 0.275 0.592 0.013** 0.002*** 0.738 0.416 0.013** 0.21 5.16 1.14 6.45 0.289 -0.307 -4.63 1.07 6.47 0.274 -6.97 4.45 -2.24 -2.74 -4.22 -6.63 -0.985 -0.261 19.4 0.253 0.745 0.422 0.924 0.342 0.205 0.844 0.576 0.847 0.215 0.333 0.74 0.522 0.685 0.217 0.813 0.015** 0.291 0.23 0.003*** 0.085* 1.75 -0.093 0.721 0.762 -0.101 -0.249 -2.39 0.951 0.196 -1.88 -1.54 -2.46 0.615 1.61 0.638 -2.25 -0.253 16.9 0.000*** 0.826 0.364 0.024** 0.013** 0.518 0.001*** 0.303 0.298 0.002*** 0.004*** income gender lnentage enteduuni entexp family partner export lnempini onlyloan networking innova advert brand comserv whenest incubsize sector compete prorank cycle -0.959 -0.352 -1.48 0.139 0.055 1.23 -1.08 -1.25 -0.023 1.3 -1.7 -0.147 0.924 1.48 1.99 -0.415 0.059 0.427 0.699 0.474 0.861 0.505 0.212 0.457 0.678 0.954 0.378 0.177 0.937 0.418 0.582 0.161 0.718 0.030** 0.344 0.17 0.001*** 0.108 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.058 - - -5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.017** - - 0.001*** - -0.02 -0.156 -0.157 -1.16 0.46 Model 1 -4.39 2.92 10.5 Model 2 -0.425 -0.341 0.791 Model 3 Model 2 (cont.) Model 3 (cont.) 0.001*** 0.198 0.074* 0.234 0.000*** 0.009*** 0.362 0.099* 1.03 -0.903 0.002*** 0.040** -5.74 -2.5 - *, **, and *** indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively. Log-likelihood and prob values of ​​Model 1, 2 and 3, respectively, are -190.632 [0.000***], -165.552 [0.000***] and -173.255 [0.000***]. 64 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 65 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Also considering the Model 2 and 3, we obtain various results regarding the variables. The possibility of failure of the firms, whose owners only dependent on earnings coming from its new-born firm, is about 6 times higher than other firms. In this case it has been seen that the entrepreneurs having income from other sources are more likely to be successful in start-up business. It is interesting to see the result that the firms whose owners are university graduates have about two times higher risk of failure than other firms. Yet there is a plausible explanation. Most of the incubator residents are specialized in low-technology industries, which have higher likelihood of failure. University graduates, who later realized that the new business has not much prospect, close the firm immediately and return looking for a job related to his carreer. University graduates have higher chance of finding a better paying job than non-university graduates. By the same token, non-university graduates seem to strive more to keep the new business alive. An increase in the number of partners in the firm decreases the possibility of failure of firms to 20%. It is interesting to see that failure risk of firms, whose founding capital is formed entirely by loans, is only about %15 of the other firms, whose initial capital is partially or fully self-financed. If an entrepreneur is in collaboration with stakeholders within and outside the incubation, survival probability of the firm becomes approximately 5-times higher. Moreover, it has been seen from the estimates that innovation activity of new firms increases chance of survival approximately 12-times. Brand ownership also increases the chance of the firm’s survival. Establishing a firm within an incubation center that is within its first 3-years (36 months) increases survival probability. Finally, firms those experiences a macroeconomic crisis have nearly two times more likelihood of failure than others. were estimated by including the time-dependent explanatory variables in the model. Our extended model results have shown that it become useful to estimate the Cox Proportional Hazards regression by also including the time-varying explanatory variables to the analysis. Both the time-independent and time-dependent variables create significant effects on the probability of survival of the İŞGEM firms. Overall, our estimates suggest that entrepreneurial experience acquired before starting business at İŞGEM, higher number of partners in the firm, formation of the firm’s capital completely by loan, being in collaboration with stakeholders within and outside the incubator, innovative activities in the firm, starting the new business within first 36 months of an incubator (in a young incubator), higher number of office spaces, establishing the firm in an economically larger province, and the density of competition in the sector have positive impact on the probability of survival of the new-born firms within the incubator. Entrepreneurs whose only source of income comes from the young firm, who has college diploma, who has brand ownership at the firm, who experience a macroeconomic crisis are more likely to fail. References Aernoudt, R. (2004). Incubators: Tool for Entrepreneurship?. mall Business conomics, 23, 127-35. Başar, E. (2006, May). rantılı lmayan Hazard Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Paper presented at 5. İstatistik Günleri Sempozyumu, Antalya, pp.111-16. Bellera, C.A., MacGrogan, G., Debled, M., De Lara, C.T., Brouste, V., & Mathoulin-Pélissier, S. (2010). Variables with time-varying effects and the Cox model: Some statistical concepts illustrated with a prognostic factor study in breast cancer. BM Medical esearch Methodology, 10:20. Conclusions Cox proportional hazard model, besides others, rest on proportional hazards assumption that independent variables do not vary with time. When PH assumption is violated, Cox regression estimates become biased. Then, Cox survival estimates can be corrected by including the time-varying effects to the analysis. Identification and calculation of time-dependent effects give the opportunity to obtain some otherwise unseen valuable special time pattern information. In our analysis, initially, the Cox regression was performed by considering that all explanatory variables are constant over time. Then, extended Cox regression models 66 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Cox, D.R., & Oakes, D. (1984). Anaylsis of urvival ata. London: Chapman and Hall. Demirgil, H. (2008). irmaların Hayatta Kalma and Büyüme Performanslarını Belirleyen aktörler: Göller Bölgesi Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Ph.D. Thesis. Department of Economics, Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta. Geiss, K., Meyer, M., Radespiel-Tröger, M., & Gefeller, O. (2009). SURVSOFT—Software for nonparametric survival analysis. omputer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, lsevier Ireland ., 96, 63–71. Hackett, M., & Dilts, D.M. (2004). A Systematic Review of Business Incubation Research. Journal of echnology ransfer, 29, 55-82. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 67 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Karaöz, M., & Albeni, M., (2011), İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan Girişimlerin Hayatta Kalma ve üyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: KO GE İş Geliştirme Merkezleri (İŞGEM) Üzerine ir Araştırma. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). (Issue Brief No. 109K139). Kleinbaum, D.G., & Klein, M. (2005). urvival Analysis: A elf- earning ext (2nd Ed.). New York: Springer. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey Scheike, T. H. (2004). Time-Varying Effects in Survival Analysis. In: N. Balakrishnan & C.R. Rao. (Ed.), Advances in urvival Analysis, 61-85. Amsterdam: Elsevier North-Holland. Özgür Polat Department of Economics Dicle University, Diyarbakır, Turkey opolat@dicle.edu.tr Sertkaya, D., Ata, N., & özer, M. T. (2005). Yaşam çözümlemesinde zamana bağlı açıklayıcı değişkenli Cox regresyon modeli. Ankara Üniversitesi ıp akültesi Mecmuası, 58, 153-58. Tabatabai, M. A., Bursac, Z., Williams, D. K., & Singh, K. P. (2007). Hypertabastic survival model. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 4:40. Enes E. Uslu Department of Econometrics Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey ertad10@hotmail.com Yay, M., Çoker, E., & Uysal, Ö. (2007). Yaşam Analizinde Cox Regresyon Modeli ve Artıkların İncelenmesi, errahpaşa ıp ergisi, 38, 139-45. Hüseyin Kalyoncu Department of International Trade Meliksah University, Kayseri, Turkey hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr Abstr ct This study analyzes unit root properties of total and sectorial energy production and consumption series of urkey. This study is the first to analyze unit root properties of urkish energy production and consumption in detail. The unit root analysis of energy production and consumption are tested by using unit root tests based on M considering without structural break and with one and two structural breaks. According to unit root test without structural break, the unit root hypothesis is rejected only for consumption of natural gas. The unit root hypothesis is rejected for 15 out of the 33 series by the test with one structural break. When unit root test with two structural breaks are conducted, 25 out of the 33 series are found to be stationary around a deterministic trend. The production of hydraulic and the consumption of lignite, electricity, petroleum, coal and electricity, total energy and petroleum consumption in ransportation sector are found to be nonstationary, which indicates that the impacts of innovations on these variables will be permanent. The policy implication of the results suggests that the impacts of shocks on energy consumption and production will be temporary and not have a long memory for most of variables. KEYWO D nergy onsumption, nergy Production, nit oot Analysis, urkey A I LE HI O Y ubmitted: 04 ctober 2012 esubmitted: 24 ecember 2012 Accepted: 25 March 2013 JEL ode: Q43, Q48 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 69 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2386 Title A name given to the resource Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms 1 Author Author Aygül , Anavatan KARAÖZ, Murat Abstract A summary of the resource. The most widely used model in multivariate analysis of survival data is proportional hazards model proposed by ox. While it is easy to get and interpret the results of the model, the basic assumption of proportional hazards model is that independent variables assumed to remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. ne of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable and a parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using ox regression considering time-varying variables. The firm data comes from Business evelopment enters (İŞG M) which is a prominent business incubation center operating in urkey. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d9a1c7fedecd287382101fa9e192c487.pdf 957c195bc158bc6f373d75c7864af0fc PDF Text Text Khalid Zaman / Iqtidar Ali Shah / Muhammad Mushtaq Khan / Mehboob Ahmad Levin, A. & Lin, C. F. (1992). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties, mimeo, University of California, San Diego. Levin, Andrew; Chien-Fu Lin and Chia-Shang James Chu, (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties, Journal of conometrics, 108(1): 1-24. Linden, M. (1992). Military expenditure, government size and economic growth in the Middle East in the period 1973-1985, Journal of Peace esearch, 29(3): 265-270. MacNair, E.S.; James C. Murdoch; Chung-Ron Pi & Todd Sandler, (1995). Growth and defense: pooled estimates for the NATO Alliance, 1951-1988, outhern conomic Journal, 61(3): 846-860. Maddala G, Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. xford Bulletin of conomics and tatistics 61: 631–652. Mueller, Michael J. & Atesoglu, H.S. (1993). Defense spending, technological change and economic growth in the United States, efence conomics, 4: 259-269. Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. conometric Theory 20: 597–625. Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors, xford Bulletin of conomics and tatistics, pecial issue, ovember, 61, pp. 653-70. Pedroni, P. (2000). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated Panels, Advances in conometrics, 15: 93-130. Phillips P. and Perron, P. (1988); Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrica, Vol. 75, o. 3, pp.335-346. Sezgin, S. (1999a). A causal analysis of Turkish defense growth relationships: 1924-1996, Ankara niversity Journal of Political ciences, 55(2): 113-123. Sezgin, S. (1999b). Defence expenditure and economic growth in Turkey and Greece: a disaggregated analysis, Paper Presented at a The Arms Trade, Security, and Conflict conference at Middlesex University Business School, London, 11-12 June. Sezgin, S. (2000). An empirical analysis of Turkey’s defence-growth relationships with a multi-equation model (1956-1994), efence and Peace conomics, 11(1): 63-80. SHRDC (2008). SAARC Human Resource Development Centre, 2008, Database Profile on Macroeconomic and HRD Indicators in the SAARC Region (1990-2006). Online available at: www. shrdc-isb.org.pk accessed on May 2, 2010. SIPRI (2008). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Oxford, Oxford University Press. Smyth, R and Narayan, K, P. (2009). A panel data analysis of the military expenditure-external debt nexus: evidence from six Middle Eastern countries. Journal of Peace esearch, Vol. 46, o. 2, 235-250.. Stock, J. and Watson, M.W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher Order integrated systems, conometrica , 61(4) :783-820. UNDP (2008); Human Development Report 2007-2008, Washington D.C Human Development Report (2007-2008). United Nation Development Program. Available online at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/ accessed on May 5, 2010. World Bank (2008). World Development Indicators 2008. Washington D. C. Yildirim, J. and Sezgin, S. (2002). Defense, education and health expenditures in Turkey, 1924-1996, Journal of Peace esearch, 39(5): 569-580. Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S. & Ocal, N. (2005). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries: a dynamic panel data analysis, efence and Peace conomics, 16(4): 283-295. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals AKIGHIR David Terfa Department of Economics, Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria. akighirdavidterfa@ yahoo.com OKPE. I Department of Economics, Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria. A A The paper examines government expenditure on nomadic education in KEYWO D igeria and the implications for achieving the M Gs. econdary data ducation, Government were used and the data were analyzed with the aid of descriptive statistics. xpenditure, Millennium The study revealed that government expenditure on nomadic education evelopment Goals, omads, in igeria over time has been on the increase which has necessitated the igeria. increase in the number of nomadic schools and teachers in the country. The study further found out that there is a wide gap between male and A I LE HI O Y female enrolments in nomadic schools in igeria; factors such as early ubmitted: 20 ctober 2011 marriages and teenage pregnancies, cultural and religious biases as well esubmitted: 10 ebruary 2012 as economic issues were believed to be responsible for the gap. Also, it esubmitted: 12 March 2012 was discovered that the total increase in nomads’ enrolments in nomadic esubmitted: 24 April 2012 schools in the country is not proportionate with the increase in government Accepted: 21 May 2012 expenditure on nomadic education. The study attributed this low school attendance by the nomads to the problems of under-funding, dearth of teachers, constant migration of nomads, the involvement of the children of nomads in the productive system, corruption, among others. The study concluded that the present form of implementation of the nomadic education would make it difficult for it to be a panacea for achieving the M Gs in the country. ecommendations were made on how to improve on the nomadic education system in the country. JEL odes: H5, 015 146 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 147 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Introduction Education is the spring board for social and economic change. It plays a major role in the socio-economic development of a nation. Education occupies an important place in most plans for economic and social development. It is important in the human development as a supplier of the trained man power as well as a requisite for the accomplishment of other development goals (Adebiye,2004). These roles played by the educational sector stimulate economic growth and development of a country. This explains why countries of the world expend so much on this vital sector in order to enhance the level of literacy of their citizenry. Inequality of access to education and educational marginalization have deleterious effects on the national development of a country. In Nigeria, however, available records have shown that expenditure on education is below the internationally acceptable standard. According to the UNDP Human Development Report (2008), Nigeria spends almost an insignificant proportion of its financial resources on education, the expenditure on education in Nigeria as a proportion of GDP averaged 5.84 percent, which falls below the UNESCO’s benchmark of 26 percent of the budgets of developing countries. This accounts for the sluggish educational growth rate of 0.59 in the country. The poor funding of education in Nigeria has over time deprived a lot of Nigerians access to education. According to Nafisatu and Abdu (2010), out of the estimated population of 9.4 million nomads in Nigeria,3.3 million are children of school age, but the participation of the nomads in the existing formal and non-formal education programs is abysmally low, with a literacy rate ranging between 0.2% and 2.9%. The Nigerian nomadic pastoralists are made up of the Fulani (5.3m), Shuwa (1.01m), Koyam (32,000), Badai (20,000), Dark Buzzu (15,000) and the Buduma (10,000). The Fulani are found in 31 out of the 36 states of Nigeria, while others reside mainly on the Borno plains and shores of Lake Chad. The migrant fishing groups account for about 2.8 million, comprising numerous tribes. They are found in the Atlantic coastline, the riverside areas and river basins of the country. These groups of people amongst others do not have access to functional education in the country over time. In the quest to remove the chronic illiteracy among this mobile population of Nigeria, the federal government of Nigeria introduced Nomadic Education Program (NEP) in 1986. NEP was designed to provide the nomads with the relevant and fundamental basic education that would improve their survival skills. This was expected to provide them with the knowledge and the skills that would enable them raise their productivity and income; as well as empower them to participate effectively in the socio-economic and political affairs of the country. In a bid to achieving these goals, 148 Journal of Economic and Social Studies the National Commission for Nomadic Education (NCNE) was established in 1989 with the mandate to: a) formulate policies and guidelines on all matters relating to nomadic education in Nigeria; b) provide funds for research and personnel development for the improvement of nomadic education; and develop programs on nomadic education and provide equipment, instructional materials, construction of classrooms and other facilities for nomadic education (Nafisatu and Bashir,2010). Over the years, the government has been spending money on the nomadic education program so as to provide an unfettered access to quality basic education for the nomads. The aim is to equip them with the skills and competencies that will enhance their wellbeing and participation in the nation-building process. The Nigerian government considers nomadic education as a veritable measure for the development of the universal basic education with a view to achieving the Education for All (EFA) goals and the Millennium Development Goals ( National Commission for Nomadic Education,2002 ). An assessment of the results of the program against its objectives thus far is imperative. Government expenditure on education in Nigeria has been widely studied. However, attention has not been paid specifically on assessing the impact of government expenditure on nomadic education as a measure aimed at achieving the MDGs of universal basic education in Nigeria. At best, available literature presents partial analyses of this issue. Thus, to be area specific, this paper seeks to evaluate the impact of government expenditure on nomadic education in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining whether or not, it will be the key for achieving the universal basic education of MDGs in Nigeria. Following the introduction, the paper is structured as follows: Section two deals with the review of government expenditure on education in Nigeria and the outline of the MDGs. Section three considers the evolution and strategies of nomadic in Nigeria; while section four presents the problems of nomadic education in Nigeria. Section five is the method of the study; section six presents and analyses the data. Section seven uncovers the findings of the study; and section eight contains the recommendations and conclusion of the paper. Government Expenditure on Education in Nigeria Government funding of education in Nigeria comes from different sources. The major one for all levels of government is the public revenue from taxation and oil (Saavedrea, 2003). Education funds are reported to be distributed among the primary, secondary and tertiary education levels in the proportion of 30%, 30% and 40%, respectively ( Balami ,2003). According to Hinclifte (2003) (as cited in Adewale, Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 149 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Ajaji and Enikanoselu, 2005), Government expenditure on education includes direct government expenditure ( for teachers’ salaries and instructional materials) as well as indirect expenditure in the form of subsidies to households such as tax reductions, scholarships, loans and grants. It also includes payment from Education Tax Fund (ETF), mainly for capital expenditure. The main sources of funds that the Nigerian government has are federal taxes and duties on petroleum, profits, imports and exports, which form the revenue of the Federation Account, and the centrally collected Value Added Tax (VAT) introduced in 1996. The federal government allocations to the educational sector from 1995 to 2011 is presented in Table 1. Table1. Federal Government Allocation to Education between1995-2011 Years 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2009 2010 2011 Capital (N) 3,017,900,000 3,215,800,000 3,807,900,000 9,739,600,000 8,291,800,000 35,000,000,000 35,183,789,000 22,100,000,000 15,723,260,401 21,550,000,000 50,540,287,898 40,005,096,425 53,667,933,553 304,670,538,799 Recurrent (N) 9,798,600,000 12,135,900,000 13,033,200,000 13,828,300,000 19,421,700,000 29,514,932,711 37,676,055,443 59,994,441,815 63,228,742,652 72,217,886,839 145,219,839,130 196,218,973,905 192,594,871,801 518,251,289,348 Total ( N) 12,816,400,000 15,351,700,000 16,841,200,000 23,666,100,000 27,713,500,000 64,514,932,711 72,950,836,443 82,094,441,815 78,952,003,053 93,767,886,839 195,760,127,029 236,224,070,330 246,262,805,354 356,495,828,145 Source: Budget Office of the Federation, Federal Ministry of Finance, 2011. The table above shows that government expenditure on education consists of recurrent and capital expenditure. In nominal terms, it can be seen from the table that the budgetary allocations to the education sector are on the increase but the growth rate is not impressive. For instance, in 2008 the allocation to the capital expenditure on education was 6.4% of the total budget and it was 3.9% in 2009, and 3.9% in 2010 representing 0.0% increase between 2009 and 2010; while the educational allocation to the recurrent expenditure was 15.1% in 2008,15.0% in 2009, and 14.4% of the total budget in 2010. This represents a decline of -0.6% in the allocations between 2009 and 2010. These allocations have grossly failed to meet the UNESCO’s 150 Journal of Economic and Social Studies conventional benchmark of 26% for the budgets of developing countries. Given the importance of this sector to human and economic development, it would be important to push the education allocations up to at least half of the international benchmark requirement so as to attain the universal basic education as described in the goal two of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Outline of the Millennium Development Goals(MDGs) At the Millennium Summit held in September 2000, in New York, United States of America, members of the United Nations (UN) made the following declaration: We will spare no effort to free our fellow men, women and children from the abject and dehumanizing conditions of extreme poverty, to which more than a billion of them are currently subjected to”. This led to the acceptance and the formulation of the Millennium Development Goals which are expected to be fully achievable in the year 2015. These goals are: Goal 1: Eradication of extreme poverty and hunger by half in 2015; Goal 2: Achievement of the universal primary education by 2015; Goal 3: Promotion of gender equality and empowerment of women by 2015; Goal 4: Reduction of child mortality rate especially the under 5 by two-third in 2015, Goal 5: Improvement of the maternal health; Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability; and Goal 8: Development of a global partnership for development (National Planning Commission,2004). The quest to achieve the universal basic education as described by goal two of the MDGs, the Nigerian government gave a rekindling interest to the Nomadic Education Program as one of the measures of achieving the MDGs in the country by 2015. Evolution and Strategies of Nomadic Education in Nigeria. The Nomadic Education program (NEP) started officially in November 1986, after The Yola National Workshop on Nomadic Education. The workshop resolved that : “… The nomads needed a fair deal through the provision of education and other social amenities to reciprocate their contribution to the nation-building ….” (Ismail, 2000). Consequently, the Federal Government promulgated the Decree No. 41 of Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 151 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals December 1989 (now CAP 243 LFN), which established the National commission for Nomadic Education (NCNE) with the responsibility to implement the National Nomadic Education Program. The NCNE was mandated to formulate policy and issue guidelines in all matters relating to nomadic education in Nigeria. These mandates include: providing funds for research and personnel development of nomadic education in Nigeria; the development of programs on nomadic education; the provision of equipment and other instructional materials, construction of classrooms and other facilities relating to nomadic education. Secondly, to establish, manage and maintain primary schools in the settlements and grazing reserves carved out for nomadic people. Thirdly, to determine standard of skills to be attained in the nomadic schools. Also, to arrange for effective monitoring and evaluation of activities of agencies concerned with nomadic education. It was mandated to liaise and cooperate with other relevant ministries and agencies. Furthermore, NCNE was to receive block grants and funds from the Federal Government or any agency authorized and allocate same to the nomadic schools based on any format approved by the Federal Executive Council; act as agency for channeling all external aid to the nomadic schools in Nigeria; ensure effective inspection of nomadic education activities in Nigeria through the sections in the Federal and State Ministries of Education performing duties relating to nomadic education. Finally, it was mandated to collate, analyze and publish information relating to nomadic education in Nigeria; and undertake any other action desirable for the promotion of nomadic education in Nigeria (National Commission for Nomadic Education, 1989). The commission has four departments, namely, Program Development and Extension; Monitoring, Evaluation and Statistics; Administration and Supplies and Finance and Accounts. It has six Zonal offices located in Bauchi for the North-East, Kano for the North-West, Minna for the North-Central, Ibadan for South-West, Enugu of the South-East and Benin for the South-South. Furthermore, it has four university-based nomadic education centers located in the University of Port Harcourt for migrant fishermen education, University of Maiduguri for teacher-training, University of Sokoto for curriculum development, and University of Jos for research and evaluation to cater for pastoral nomads (National Commission Nomadic Education, 2000). The Organogram of the Commission is shown in Appendix I. tation of the nomadic education program. The programs briefly highlighted are: Provision of primary education – this program is implemented in collaboration with States and Local governments, as well as local communities, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and Collaborative Body Organizations (CBOs). So far, all the 36 States and Abuja are participating in the program. However, their level of commitments to the program varies. Provision of academic support services through the University based centers. The centre at Jos is responsible for research and evaluation, the University of Maiduguri for teachers training and outreach programs, Usmanu Dan Fodiyo University for the development of curricula and textual materials and the University of Port Harcourt for research, curricula development and teachers training for the education of migrant fishing communities. The Commission has been working closely with the Centers for the development of curricula materials and pupils’ texts, conduct of research projects and the organization of teachers training workshops; Provision of infrastructural facilities – faced with the problem of inadequate infrastructure that has necessitated teaching and learning under trees, the Commission has adopted the following strategies for addressing the peculiar needs of all the groups: provision of permanent and semi-permanent structures, provision of mobile collapsible classroom structures, provision of boat schools and dug-out canoes. Provision of extension services: Actual intervention by the Commission in the provision of educational extension services to the nomads only began in 1996/97. The major driving force behind the NCNE’s intervention in this aspect of education was the realization that, the adoption of an integrated approach to education provision engender nomads participation in support for the program. However, the mandate of the Commission specifically restricted its operation to the provision of primary education to the children of the nomads. The dilemma necessitated the convening of an Experts Meeting on viable strategies for implementing Nomadic Education in Nigeria in 1995. Having examined the condition of nomadic education in Nigeria, the meeting came out with recommendations to further strengthen, expand and sustain the program. Some of the recommendations were that, the provision of education should be for the children as well as the adults, and that tremendous efforts be made to positively alter the behaviour of nomads towards modern education. Nomadic Education Program Strategies Current Program Implementation In pursuance of its functions, the National Commission for Nomadic Education has between 1990 and 2006 evolved four distinct programs for the effective implemen- 152 Journal of Economic and Social Studies To support effective teaching and learning, the Commission also collaborates with Nomadic communities, CBOs, NGOs, at all levels, development partners and other Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 153 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals international support organizations. Over the years, the Commission has embarked on a number of activities and recorded modest achievements in the following areas, namely: Broadening access to basic education – providing access to basic education, the NEP has facilitated 2,354 schools in 36 States and FCT for pastoralist children (432,411), 451 for fisher folk children (88,288) in 9 states, 260 schools for migrant farmers in 8 states with 33,164 pupils; The Commission has facilitated the increase in the number of nomadic schools. The number of Nomadic schools increased from 2,094 in 2005 to 2,294 in 2006 and to 2,526 in 2007. There was progressive teachers recruitment and retention in nomadic schools, there was an increase in the number of nomadic schools teachers from 6,918 in 2005, to 7,989 in 2006 and 8,665 by 2007; there was an increase in Nomadic girl-child education initiative of the Commission which has increased female enrolment, progression, and transition in Nomadic schools. The female enrolment has increased from 153,489 in 2006 to 164,769 in 2007 representing 28% increase rate (Nafisatu and Abdu, 2010). Problems of Nomadic Education in Nigeria According to Nafisatu and Abdu (2010), the following are the problems militating against the smooth operation of the NEP in Nigeria: constant migration of the nomads, the involvement of children in the productive systems, unsuitability of the formal school curriculum, physical isolation and restriction of the nomads from social interaction with the larger society, unfavorable land tenure system, underfunding of nomadic education and late release of approved funds, unwillingness of State and Local Governments to make budgetary allocations for Nomadic Education Program, indiscriminate transfers of the teachers by LGEAs from the Nomadic primary schools to conventional primary schools without replacements, the dearth of teachers in terms of quantity and quality, relatively low level of enrolments in Nomadic schools, general lack of supervision and monitoring of nomadic schools by the local and state governments, relative exclusion of Nomadic schools from UBE and other intervention funds accruing to the States, Non-provision of funds for the Commission’s extension service programs, constant clashes and conflicts between farmers and herders and amongst fisher folks over fishing rights resulting in displacements. According to Ismail (2000), the under-funding of nomadic education is partly blamed on inaccurate demographic data. Lack of reliable statistics on the nomads leads to planning based on guessing; there was much confusion as to the actual number of the nomadic schools, types of school facilities and the 154 Journal of Economic and Social Studies number of teachers in various locations. Lack of authentic data in these areas has made planning for nomadic education very difficult. Schools are stationed inappropriately; few in densely populated areas, and many in sparsely populated areas. Malinga (2009), observed that, the major hindrances to school attendance are the daily grazing movements and the lack of labor substitutes. Unlike farmers who use child labor marginally, the Fulani rely heavily and continuously on the children for labor. A Fulani man will not send his child to school even if an adult is available to attend to the animals because the child needs to learn the herding skills. The reliance on juveniles for shepherding task, explains the poor participation of the pastoralists in formal education. From the foregoing, it is apparent that Nafisatu and Abdu, Ismail, and Malinga have identified various problems of nomadic education in Nigeria. However, in this study, the problem of underfunding of nomadic education, dearth of teachers in terms of quantity and quality, corruption, constant migration of the nomads, and active involvement of the school-going age children of the nomads in the productive system were ranked as the most important problems. Thus, these problems were critically engaged in the section of data analysis. Method of the Study The study used mainly secondary data that were obtained from the National Commission on Nomadic Education (NCNE) and the Federal Ministry of Finance as well as journals. The data collected were on the number of pupils enrolment, number of nomadic primary schools, number of teachers in nomadic schools and government expenditure on nomadic education in Nigeria from 1990 to 2008 as well as the corruption perceptions indices in Nigeria. The data were analyzed using tables, percentages, trend graphs, bar charts and rates. Data presentation and Analysis In order to evaluate the impact of government expenditure on nomadic education in Nigeria, data were collected on the number of schools, teachers and the pupils’ enrolments in nomadic schools from 1990 to 2008 as presented in table 2. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 155 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Table 2. Distribution of the of nomadic schools, Teachers and Pupils enrolment from 1990 to 2008 Years 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 No of schools 329 473 626 656 754 860 940 1,103 1,022 1,068 1,494 1,574 1,680 1,820 1,981 2,034 2,354 2,354 2,526 Source: NCNE, 2008 No of teachers 878 1,489 2,491 2,365 2,822 2,788 2,915 3,265 3,265 3,365 4,748 4,907 5,290 6,306 6,861 6,918 7,989 7,989 8,665 Pupils enrolment Male 13,763 25,942 33,463 38,335 42,738 56,759 63,638 71,695 69,578 75,601 112,958 118,905 134,930 175,962 211,931 222,061 224,304 224,304 235,064 Female 5,068 10,559 16,689 15,253 19,094 35,751 40,938 47,081 47,366 46,934 80,291 84,939 92,014 127,556 151,622 153,489 164,769 164,769 197,347 Total 18,831 65,019 50,152 53,588 61,832 92,510 104,576 118,776 116,944 122,535 193,243 203,844 226,944 303,518 363,553 375,550 389,073 389,073 432,411 The table reveals that the number of nomadic schools in the country has increased from 329 in 1990 to 2,526 in 2008 representing a cumulative increase of 87% in the number of nomadic schools. It further shows that, the number of teachers employed to handle teaching and learning in the nomadic schools has increased from 878 in 1990 to 8,665 in 2008 representing 90% increment in the number of teachers employed during the period. The table also depicts that the number of pupils’ enrolment in nomadic schools rose from 18,831 in 1990 to 432,411 in 2008, representing a cumulative increase of 96% in the total pupils’ enrolment over the period. To show clearly these increasing trends, data from table 2 were used to construct trend graphs as shown in Figures 1 and 2. The trends show clearly that both the number of nomadic schools and teachers have increased over time in Nigeria. The main reason for the trend may be the government’s continued grant-in-aid to the nomadic education. 156 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Figure 1 Trends of the number of Nomadic schools and the number of Teachers employed over time The chart in Figure 2 further shows that the number of pupils’ enrolment by gender in nomadic education in Nigeria is on the increase. Source: Constructed from the data in table 2 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 157 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Figure 2. Pupils’ enrolments in Nomadic school by gender A close examination of the chart reveals that there is a wide gap between male and female enrolments over the years. In a bid to explain the gender gap in nomadic education in Nigeria, we considered the general causes of low female school enrollments in Nigeria. Some of the factors are early marriages and teenage pregnancies. These are common experiences in the country, especially in the northern part of the country where the nomads are dominant. In that part of the country, many school-age girls often drop out of school because of pregnancies to marry. Secondly, cultural and religious biases adversely affect girl-child education in Nigeria. Many Nigerian parents, especially in large families with limited resources, tend to enroll boys in school instead or before girls. Some parents also keep their daughters out of schools due to misinterpretation of the tenets of the Islamic religion. This practice is typical of illiterate Muslims of which the nomads are part of. They generally believe that their female children will face sexual harassment in schools. Nonetheless, poverty and economic issues are equally contributory factors to this gap. Given the high level of poverty in Nigeria, many parents, including the nomads, often send their daughters to sell wares in the market or on the street in order to generate additional incomes for the families. For the Fulani nomads, their school-age daughters are commonly involved in the hawking of extracted cow milk. These factors are responsible for the disproportionate male-female enrolments in Nigerian schools, especially at the primary school level. Thus, it may be said that nomadic education in the country also faces these general problems. This male-female gap in school enrolments has a very serious implication for attaining the two educational Millennium Development Goals of Universal Primary Education(UPE) and the elimination of gender disparities in the primary and secondary schools in 2015. This is so because, the EFA goals and MDGs in Nigeria aimed at raising the gender parity rate to 80% in primary 1-6 and 50% in JS1-3 by 2015, using nomadic education as a potent tool. Furthermore, the growth rate of government expenditure on nomadic education in Nigeria was compared with that of pupils’ enrolments in nomadic schools. The results are presented in table 3. Table 3. Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education and Pupils Enrollment in Nigeria YEAR EXP(N) 1990 4227139.00 1991 5284802.00 25.02 65019.00 245.28 1992 2958582.00 -44.02 50152.00 -22.87 1993 11225544.00 279.42 53588.00 6.85 1994 6930438.00 -38.26 61832.00 15.38 1995 3153896.00 -54.49 92510.00 49.62 1996 8929536.00 183.13 104576.00 13.04 1997 8876172.00 -0.60 118776.00 13.58 1998 6613698.00 -25.49 116944.00 -1.54 1999 15676272.00 137.03 122535.00 4.78 2000 17382572.00 10.88 193243.00 57.70 2001 81352364.00 368.01 203844.00 5.49 2002 87872301.13 8.01 226944.00 11.33 2003 50000000.00 -43.10 303518.00 33.74 2004 51163143.22 2.33 363553.00 19.78 2005 59890663.01 17.06 375550.00 3.30 2006 70162576.31 17.15 389073.00 3.60 2007 70373063.00 0.30 389073.00 0.00 2008 70584183.00 0.30 432411.00 11.14 % D in EXP ENROLLMENT % D in Enrollment 18831.00 Source :NCNE, Annual Report,2000. The table shows that government expenditure on nomadic education has been on the increase over the years, even though the increase has not been consistent. As it can be seen from the table, in nominal terms, the expenditure has increased over time from N4,227,139.00 in 1990 to N70,548,183.00 in 2008. However, in terms of the growth rate, the trend of the expenditure on nomadic education has not demonstrated any definite trend. For instance, in 1991, the expenditure increased by 158 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 159 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals 25.05% and declined by 44.02% in 1992, it then rose tremendously by 279.42% in 1993 and thereafter, decreased by 38.26% in 1994. The declining trend continued and again, appreciated by 183.13% in 1996 and peaked in 2001 by 368.01% . The Expenditure dropped by 43% in 2003 and afterwards, increased moderately. Pupils’ enrolments as depicted in the table increased continuously during the review period except in 1992 and 1998 when a decline was recorded. The enrolments increased from 18,831 pupils in 1990 to 43,244 pupils in 2008 representing a cumulative increase of 56.45% in the number of pupils enrolled. In order to clearly see whether the increases in the government expenditure are commensurate with the changes in the enrolments, percentage rates for the expenditure and enrolments over time as contained in the table 3 were used to construct a trend graph as shown in Figure 3. Source: Constructed from the data in Table 3. Figure 3. Trends in Percentage change in Expenditure on Nomadic Education and School Enrollment in Nomadic school in Nigeria A close examination of the trends reveals that the percentage increases in school enrolments by the nomads are not proportionate with the increases in government expenditure on nomadic education over time. Having discovered this, we tried to ascertain the possible causes for the disproportionate relationship between government expenditure on nomadic education and nomadic school enrolment in Nigeria. In doing this, we have engaged some variables critically to see whether they are 160 Journal of Economic and Social Studies responsible for this relationship . First, we considered the problem of underfunding of nomadic education in the country. We used the ratio of government allocations to nomadic education as the proportion of the total education allocations in the country over the years as a proxy for underfunding problem as shown in the table 5. Table 5. The ratio of Government Allocations to nomadic Education as a proportion of the total allocation to the Education sector in Nigeria. Year Government allocation to Education (N) Government allocation to Nomadic Education (N) Ratio of Government allocation to Nomadic Education as a percentage of Total allocation to Education (%) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 12,816,400,000 15,351,900,000 16,841,200,000 23,666,100,000 27,713,500,000 64,514,932,711 72,950,836,443 82,094,441,815 78,952,003,053 93,767,886,839 195,760,127,029 236,224,070,330 246,262,805,535 356,495,828,145 3,153,896.00 8,929,536.00 8,876,172.00 6,613,698.00 15,678,272.00 17,382,572.00 81,352,364.00 87,872,301.13 50,000,000.00 51,163,145.22 59,890,663.01 70,162,576.31 70,373,063.00 70,584,183.00 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 Source: Computed from Tables 1 and 4 The table shows that government expenditure on nomadic education as a percentage of the total allocations to the education sector averaged 0.05%. This proportion is indeed ,too meager to exert any meaningful impact on nomadic education as per increased enrolment rates. Secondly, we considered the teacher-student ratio as a proxy for the problem of inadequacy of teachers in nomadic schools over the years as shown in the table 6. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 161 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Table 6. Teacher-Student Ratio in nomadic Education Schools in Nigeria Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Number of Teachers 875 1489 2491 2365 2822 2788 2915 3265 3265 3365 4748 4907 5290 6306 6861 6918 7989 7989 8665 Number of Pupils 18,831 65,019 50,152 53,588 61,832 92,510 104,576 118,776 116,944 122,535 193,243 203,844 226,944 303,518 363,553 375,550 389,073 389,073 432,411 Teacher-Student ratio 25 44 20 23 22 33 36 37 36 36 41 42 42 48 53 55 49 49 50 Source: Computed from Table 2 By taking the average of the teacher-student ratio over the years as contained in the table 6, it was discovered that the ratio is 1:40, implying that there are 40 students to a teacher. These number of students to a teacher is relatively high since such a teacher may find it difficult to discharge responsibilities effectively as required. The net effect may be abstentism by the students due to ineffective control over them which could degenerate into subsequent drop- out of many nomads of school-age from school. Furthermore, we examined the menace of corruption, where we used the Corruption Perceptions Indices with a view to demonstrating how corrupt practices affect public funds in Nigeria, of which nomadic education is no exception. Transparency International introduced the corruption perceptions Index in 1995 to measure the level of corruption in countries. The CPI scores relate to the perceptions of degree of corruption as seen by business people and country analysts. The scores range between 10( highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt). The CPI scores for Nigeria from 2003 to 2010 are shown in the table 7. Table 7. The Corruption Perception Indices for Nigeria Year CPI 2003 1.6 2004 1.4 2005 1.6 2006 1.9 2007 2.2 2008 2.2 2009 2.7 2010 2.8 Source: Transparency International, 2011 162 Journal of Economic and Social Studies From the above table, Nigeria has an average of 2.0. This implies that Nigeria is hypercorrupt. The implication is that, even with the meager allocations to nomadic education, corrupt practices may have weakened the supposedly positive impact. Thirdly, we looked at the constant migration of the nomads as a factor that may have caused low school attendance of the nomads. The nomads are typically people that travel from one place to another due to the nature of their occupations. These constant migrations have deleterious impact on school attendance of their children. Once they relocate from a given place, they abandon the schools their children were attending. Thus, it normally takes the children some time to settle down and start school in the new settlement. Lastly, we took cognizance of the factor of active involvement of the children of the nomads in the productive system. The mentality of nomads is such that they believe in training their young ones who are of school-age in their trades. This practice has made them to place more preference for their productive system than the education of their children. Consequent upon these analyzed factors, we submit that low school attendance of the nomads may be as a result of the synergy of these factors. Generally, the growth rates in school enrolments of the nomads in Nigeria is not encouraging because, of the estimated 3.3 million nomads of school going age, the available statistics show that only 432,411 nomads were enrolled for nomadic education as at 2008. This implies that, about 2,867,589 nomads representing 86.9% of the school-age nomads were not going to school. The implication is that, with all the efforts made by the government over time to ensure equal access to education among the various groups in the country with a view to achieving the MDGs in the country by 2015; only 13.1% of the total nomads of school-age were going to nomadic school as at 2008. This school enrolment rate of the nomads is too low to make any meaningful contribution to the overall achievement of the universal basic education as described in the Millennium Development Goal two. In Nigeria generally, the Millennium Development Goals are influenced by some of these socio-economic and political factors: First, there is a disconnection between the tiers of government in the implementation of the MDGs. However, the constitutional responsibility for the implementation of almost all the goals rest with the States and Local governments in Nigeria’s Federal structure; but in spite of remarkable strides at Federal level, appreciation of the requirements for meeting these goals, as well as institutional capacity remain relatively low at these levels of government. Poor governance and integration of the MDGs into national development strategies have also been a challenge. This is aggravated by policy inconsistencies, for instance, Obansanjo regime introduced NEEDS I and II, Yar’adua’s administration instituted Seven-point Agenda and Vision 20:20:20 and President Goodluck has now introduced Transformation Agenda. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 163 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals All these policies are at variance in principle but targeted at achieving the MDGs in the country. Other challenges include, lack of transparency and accountability in ministries, lack of the political will; a weak monitoring mechanism for the MDGs and low stakeholders involvement( private sector and civil society organizations ). Lastly is the unavailability of up to date data on most of the indicators. This is compounded by the limited funding available for data generation and management in the country. Findings of the Study Emergent from the above discussion, it was found out that the government over the years has demonstrated concern to ensure equality in the literacy level among the various groups in the country by initiating nomadic education in order to boost the literacy rate among the nomads who are educationally disadvantaged. This concern can be seen from the perspective of continued and sustained expenditure on nomadic education over the years. It was discovered that increases in government expenditure on nomadic education have precipitated increases in the number of nomadic schools in the country across the states vis-à-vis the number of teachers employed by the government to ensure smooth teaching and learning in nomadic schools in the country. The study revealed that enrolments by the nomads in the schools have also increased over time but not proportionate with the increases in the government expenditure. Factors such as underfunding, dearth of teachers, corruption, constant migration of the nomads and active involvement of the children in the productive system by the nomads may have been responsible for this gap. It was also found out that, there is wide gap between male and female enrollments in nomadic schools over the years. Factors such as early marriages and teenage pregnancies, cultural and religious biases as well as poverty and economic issues may have been responsible for gender gap in the enrolments in nomadic schools in the country. foundation. Consequent upon the foregoing, the following recommendations are submitted: First, there should be continuous mobilization and sensitization of the nomads to send their children to these schools especially the female children so as to bridge the gap between the male- female enrolments in nomadic schools. Second, the states and local governments should be made to supplement the federal government funding of the nomadic education, as this will go along way boosting the achievements in nomadic education in the country. Third, nomadic educational development initiatives should be planned and aligned with other community improvement and development programs such as agricultural extension, rural development and social welfare services. This approach will attract the interest and involvement of more stakeholders as this will encourage the stakeholders to support the program. Fourthly, there should be selection of more individuals from nomadic communities for training as teachers, this is because they are more acquainted with the cultural values of the nomads. Thus, they will be better placed to inculcate the necessary knowledge in the targeted nomads. Fifthly, the government should provide support to animal health issues especially on major diseases and vaccines as well as provision of support in the area of water development for improvement of livestock production and reduction of incident of conflicts between the nomads and the hosting communities. This practice will make the nomads more stable in a place to receive nomadic education. Sixthly, government should seek more new partnerships and greater collaboration with development partners and other stakeholders in other to boost the financing of nomadic education for higher results. Seventhly, NCNE should adopt a flexible timetable that adjusts itself to seasons favorable to nomads, as this would enhance their enrollments. Finally, the government should actively consider the issue of language barrier to communication, and find contextually appropriate language policies. Conclusion and Recommendations Based on the above findings, it is concluded that the present implementation of the nomadic education in the country may make it difficult for it to be a panacea for achieving Millennium Development Goals(MDGs) in terms of universal basic education attainment by 2015. 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A Paper presented at the I , P A and forum on ivestock breeding and food ecurity in Accra, Ghana. ecember 14th – 16th, 2010. ( ) Policy ocument, Published by NPC, Abuja, Nigeria. Saavedrea, M.A. (2003). Debt service- Education Expenditure Nexus: The Nigerian Experience. elected Papers for the year 2002 Annual onference, The igerian conomic ociety( ) PP,243-267. Tahir, G. (1996). Vision and Mission of Nomadic Education in Nigeria: paper delivered during the , ational conference on Vision and Mission of igerian ducation; at the I 22nd -25th July 1996 , Kaduna. Tahir, G., Nafisatu, D.M & Ahmed, M.M (2005). Improving the quality of Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Going Beyond Access and Equity. A study conducted by the ederal Ministry of ducation of igeria, 2005 in collaboration with Association for the evelopment of ducation in Africa (A A). Retrieved at www.adea net.org. on 15th August 2011. Tahir,G. (1998). “ Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Issues, problems and prospects”. Journal of omadic studies,(1)1, 10-26. Transparency International (2011). Corruption Perception Index for Nigeria. Retrieved from www. nigerianmuse.com/2011201145701zg/nigeria-watch. 28th January,2012. UNDP(2008). Human Development Report on Nigeria, New York Appendix I Figure1. An Organogram showing the organizational Chart of National Commission for Nomadic Education ORGANISATIONAL CHART OF NATIONAL COMMISSION FOR NOMADIC EDUCATION MINISTER OF EDUCATION National Commission for Nomadic Education (1989). “ Federal Government intervention in the Education of Nomads in Nigeria, 1996 – 1999”. Memorandum submitted to the panel on streamlining/ ationalization of poverty Alleviation institutions/Agencies by the ational ommission for omadic. A publication of NCNE, Abuja, Nigeria. National Commission for Nomadic Education (1989). Abuja, Nigeria. ecree BOARD EXECUTIVE SECRETARY National Commission for Nomadic Education (2000). Action plan 2000-2005,NCNE Publication, Abuja, Nigeria. National Commission for Nomadic Education (2002). ducation inancial ecord 1990-2002, NCNE publication, Abuja, Nigeria. National Commission for Nomadic Education ( 2002). Monitoring eport 2002, NCNE publication, Abuja, Nigeria. National Commission for Nomadic Education (2009). ducation inancial ecord 2003-2008, NCNE publication, Abuja, Nigeria. National Planning Commission (2004). ational conomic mpowerment and evelopment trategy Finance & Accounts Administration o.14 of 1989, NCNE publication General Admin. Establishment Transport Supply Monitoring Budget & Funds North West Zone North Central Zone North East Zone Academic Planning Computer Unit Documentation Unit Evaluation Statistics South South Zone Animal Husbandry & Extension Legal Services Unit Information Unit North East Zone Special Services Section Mobilization & Public Enlightenment University Centers Graphics Unit Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto Source: NCNE, 2000 Field Operation Final Accts. South West Zone Physical Planning & Maintenance Programme Development & Extension Monitoring Evaluation & Statistics University Of Jos University Of Maiduguri University Of Port-Harcourt Audit Unit � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2392 Title A name given to the resource Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Author Author Akighir, David Terfa Okpe, I. Abstract A summary of the resource. The paper examines government expenditure on nomadic education in igeria and the implications for achieving the M Gs. econdary data were used and the data were analyzed with the aid of descriptive statistics. The study revealed that government expenditure on nomadic education in igeria over time has been on the increase which has necessitated the increase in the number of nomadic schools and teachers in the country. The study further found out that there is a wide gap between male and female enrolments in nomadic schools in igeria; factors such as early marriages and teenage pregnancies, cultural and religious biases as well as economic issues were believed to be responsible for the gap. Also, it was discovered that the total increase in nomads’ enrolments in nomadic schools in the country is not proportionate with the increase in government expenditure on nomadic education. The study attributed this low school attendance by the nomads to the problems of under-funding, dearth of teachers, constant migration of nomads, the involvement of the children of nomads in the productive system, corruption, among others. The study concluded that the present form of implementation of the nomadic education would make it difficult for it to be a panacea for achieving the M Gs in the country. ecommendations were made on how to improve on the nomadic education system in the country. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/37856f4f83b9462fa387ce1711501d9f.docx ab83c464ef64c2cc8905fbcc96592a10 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/27266712962eed55c384ddd2c7b8db0c.pdf 5d1fd6c7d50fee4c944c0b2970e0894f PDF Text Text ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ мр Стеван Дакић Еврппски дефендплпгија центар Баоа Лука мр Предраг Пбренпвић Еврппски дефендплпгија центар Баоа Лука Апстракт: У раду се гпвпри п ппследицама дпнијетих пдлука механизама пдлучиваоа и функципнисаоа пргана Еврппске Уније а ппсебнп п мпгућим штетним ппследицама на Бпсну и Херцегпвину пп чланству у пву регипналну прганизацију Овп је један пд ппкушаја надам се не и безуспјешан кап мнпги раније приказиваоа и ствараоа слике п мпгућим превасхпднп штетним ппследицама пп БиХ дпнијетих пдлука и механизмима пдлучиваоа у ЕУ у кпнтексту механизама пдлучиваоа у Бпсни и Херцегпвини а превасхпднп пне кпји би били у супрптнпсти са интересима кпнститутивних нарпда у БиХ Оснпвнп је питаое да ли ћемп мпћи пдгпвприти слпженим захтјевима и механизмима пдлучиваоа у ЕУ пбзирпм на јпш слпженије у БиХ Кључне ријечи: Еврппска Унија, механизми пдлучиваоа, функципнисаое ЕУ �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ УВПД У дпсадащопј теприји и пракси када се гпвпри п Еврппскпј Унији ЕУ увјек се гпвпри у суперлативу пднпснп п ппзитивним импликацијама кпје се дещавају када једна држава ппстане пунпправна шланица Затп кап пплазну хипптезу за израду пвпг рада узели смп већ усвпјене пдлуке те механизме пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа ЕУ за кпје сматрамп да мпгу имати щтетан ппшетни утицај на већи дип друщтвенпг живпта у БиХ те да ће бити маргинализпван утицај БиХ кап мале земље на дпнпщеое пдлука и функципнисаое ЕУ щтп указује на пптребу пзбиљних предприпрема и припрема БиХ за перипд будућег шланства у ЕУ Ппсебна пажоа у пвпм раду ће бити усмјерена према мпгућим негативним ппследицама у прпцесу пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа кпје дпнпси шланствп у ЕУ са псвртпм на щире ппследице тих негативнпсти Другим ријешима у кпнтексту шланства БиХ у ЕУ пвај рад ће ппнудити приказ дијела прпцедура дпнпщеоа пдлука на нивпу ЕУ те примарнп мпгуће негативнпсти кпје би се мпгле пдразити на БиХ услед неприпремљенпсти нащих унутращоих слабпсти и једнпставнп мпгућнпсти да не будемп мпгли испуоавати преузете пбавезе збпг слпженпсти механизама пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа у БиХ Механизми пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа ЕУ су пд ппсебнпг знашаја за БиХ из разлпга и пптребе истраживаоа пвпг прпблема какп би се предупредиле или смаоиле мпгуће щтетне ппследице пунпправнпг шланства БиХ у ЕУ јер ппстпји бпјазан да ли ћемп уппщте мпћи пдгпвприти пвим пбавезама а за нас и изазпвима пбзирпм да и сами у БиХ имамп изузетнп пунп прпблема кпд дпнпщеоа пдлука пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа билп закпнпдавне или пргана изврщне и судске власти Акп буде дпбрп лакп ће се нарпди БиХ навићи на оега али акп укупнп стаое буде гпре пд садащоег пнда ће знашити да је академска заједница сапдгпвпрна са пплитишким елитама затп щтп није имала превизију и визију нащег дпбра или зла у ЕУ Пдлучиваое у Савјету министара ЕУ према актуелнпм Угпвпру из Лисабпна Анализирајући прпцесе дпнпщеоа пдлука на нивп ЕУ закљушујемп да се већина пдлука дпнпси ппступкпм сапдлушиваоа између Еврппскпг парламента и Савјета министара Еврппске уније у кпјима ће БиХ када ппстане шланица имати �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић свпје представнике Такпђе ппсебнп знашајну улпгу пкп предлагаоа и правних иницијатива има Кпмисија ЕУ кпја ппстпји кап изврщни прган да би независнп заступала ЕУ Кпмисија ЕУ прпвпди пплитике ЕУ пбезбјеђује изврщеое бучета управља прпграмима ЕУ представља ЕУ у међунарпдним пднпсима и кпнтрплище примјену угпвпра на прпписан нашин Савјет министара Еврппске уније је дп сада бип централни закпнпдавни прган у вепма слпженпм прпцесу дпнпщеоа пдлука у пквиру пве регипналне прганизације сада већ правнпг лица скпрп супердржаве кпнфедералнп федералнпг типа Прпцес пдлушиваоа на нивпу ЕУ се развип пд једнпгласнпг пдлушиваоа кпји је са интегративним прпцесима унутар ЕУ у већини слушајева замијеоен пдлушиваоем квалификпванпм већинпм енергетика пплитика азила имиграције правпсудна сарадоа у грађанским стварима култура и др Истпвременп пптребна квалификпвана већина за дпнпщеое већине пдлука се Угпвпрпм из Лисабпна приближила прпстпј већини щтп представља сущтинску прпмјену у нашину пдлушиваоа у ЕУ Наиме Угпвпр из Лисабпна има сущтинске прпмјене у нашину гласаоа у Савету министара ЕУ у већем брпју пбласти у кпјима се пдлушује или ће се пдлушивати већински пп ппщтем правилу да ће Савјет министара ЕУ пдлушивати квалификпванпм већинпм псим укпликп Угпвпрпм није прпписанп другашије кап нпр у пбластима ппреза и пдбране гдје се пдлуке и даље дпнпсе једнпгласнп Ппред ппвећаоа брпја пбласти у кпјима се пдлушује већински знашајнп се прпмијенила и квалификпвана већина неппхпдна за дпнпщеое пдлука јер Угпвпрпм се прпписује да ће квалификпвана већина бити дефинисана кап најмаое држава шланица Савјета министара ЕУ укљушујући бар пд оих и државе шланице кпје имају бар пппулације Уније Када анализирамп видимп да се квалификпвана већина пд шланпва Савјета приближила прпстпј већини с тим да ппстпје два услпва за примјену такве већине а први је да пдлуку мпрају ппдржати државе кпје имају бар пппулације ЕУ свих држава шланица и оиме се щтите интереси великих држава и пнемпгућују кпалиције малих држава дпк се са друге стране интереси малих држава щтите услпвпм да се неће сматрати да је квалификпвана већина пстварена укпликп бар шетири државе не буду прптив пдређене пдлуке шиме се пнемпгућава великим државама да блпкирају пдређену пдлуку без пбзира щтп имају пппулације ЕУ Прптпкпл уз кпнсплидпвану верзију Угпвпра п Еврппскпј унији и Угпвпра п функципнисаоу Еврппске уније предвиђа да када предлагаш пдлука Савјету министара ЕУ није Кпмисија или Виспки представник ЕУ квалификпвану већину шини држава шланица кпје представљају најмаое станпвнищтва ЕУ �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ Такпђе Прптпкпл предвиђа и мпгућнпст мијеоаоа пдредби п гласаоу Савјета и тп кпнсензуспм држава шланица шиме је дп гпдине а мпжда и дп гпдине пстављена мпгућнпст да се државе шланице ЕУ дпгпвпре да ли пписанп пдлушиваое у Савету министара ЕУ најбпље пдгпвара оихпвим интересима и да ли је мпгуће дпгпвприти ефикаснији мпдел Гасми Узимајући у пбзир све прпблеме кпји се мпгу јавити кпд реализације дпнесених пдлука у пракси се настпји да већина пдлука буде дпнесена кпнсензуспм или кпмпрпмиспм јер се настпје избјећи ситуације у кпјима би већина држава маоини наметала рјещеоа щтп би дугпрпшнп мпглп дпвести дп несугласица и незадпвпљства унутар ЕУ па и дезинтегративних прпцеса Угпвпр из Лисабпна ппвећава утицај Парламента и Кпмисије у пднпсу на Савета министара ЕУ а требап би ппвећати ефикаснпсти система пдлушиваоа у пквиру Еврппске уније дпнијети знашајнију улпгу еврппских странака и група грађана наспрам бирпкратије итд али је тп све далекп пд мпгућнпсти кпје пружа неппсредна демпкратија Дпбре стране чланства у ЕУ Брпјна истраживаоа јавнпг моеоа у БиХ гпвпре да би пвпг мпмента пгрпмна већина грађана БиХ дакле у пба ентитета гласала за улазак БиХ у Еврппску Унију Кап мпгућу ппзитивну страну евентуалнпг шланства БиХ у ЕУ грађани најшещће ппмиоу заједнишкп еврппскп тржищте рада на кпјем би радници из БиХ мпгли кпнкурисати пбзирпм да се гпдищое прпсјешнп птвара милипна нпвих радних мјеста иакп су свјесни да је квалификаципна структура нащих радника прилишнп лпща и неприлагпђена за еврппскп тржищте радне снаге Кап друга ппзитивна ствар мпже се рећи да би БиХ дпбијала гпдищоу квпту средстава из ЕУ фпндпва а са друге стране би била привлашнија страним улагашима јер уласкпм у ЕУ кап равнпправна шланица БиХ тржищте би ппсталп јпщ привлашније сигурније и приступашније БиХ би пп екпнпмским ппказатељима била најсирпмащнија држава ЕУ али са друге стране распплаже људским ресурсима прпстпрпм и прирпдним бпгатствима малим прпстпрним изласкпм на Јадранскп мпре има ппвпљан геппплитишки пплпжај и најкраћи кппнени пут земаља централне и дијела истпшне Еврппе дп Јадранскпг мпра те нивп за сада Дпступнп на �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић непрпцијеоених прирпдних бпгатства и енергетских пптенцијала кпји су дпбра претппставка за ствараое бпгатства БиХ грађана Да би се искпристили пви пптенцијали пптребан је капитал савремена технплпгија кпју ппсједују земље ЕУ али се пд БиХ тражи да има савременп пбразпван меначмент кпји би крпз прганизацију БиХ друщтва искпристип једнпм пружену истпријску щансу ЕУ је усппстављена с намјерпм да се велике еврппске силе кпје су међуспбнп ратпвале вјекпвима никада вище пружанп не сукпбе дакле ЕУ псигурава мир и за зараћене и ппсвађане нарпде у БиХ щтп би мпжда и била највећа преднпст пд шланства у ЕУ Чланствпм БиХ у ЕУ сви предуслпви за ствараое бпљег и бпгатијег живпта у БиХ биће на вищем нивпу негп сада пбзирпм на распплпживе пптенцијале и мпгућнпсти Укљушиваоем у јединственп еврппскп тржищте са слпбпдним прптпкпм капитала технплпгије и радне снаге зауставиће се тренд релативнпг запстајаоа БиХ БиХ има велике пптенцијале али дп сада није успјела кпнкурисати на еврппскпм и свјетскпм тржищту јер нема ппшетни капитал кпјим би пптенцијале ставила у функцију а тај ппшетни капитал нуди јпј ЕУ и сада зависи да ли ће БиХ меначмент и пплитишари пве мпгућнпсти искпристити на прави нашин Мнпги струшоаци сматрају да је ЕУ рјещеое за све БиХ прпблеме те да ће управп у Еврппскпј Унији БиХ развити свпј пптпуни пптенцијал јер иакп је БиХ мала земља пна мнпгп тпга мпже ппнудити Превелика пшекиваоа нарпда и пплитишара пд шланства у ЕУ мпгу истп такп дпвести дп јпщ већих разпшареоа укпликп се не изврще адекватне предприпреме и припреме БиХ за шланствп у пвакп пзбиљнпј и слпженпј прганизацији БиХ мпра предузети кпраке на јаснијем прпфилисаоу свпјих интереса какп би щтп ефектније заступала свпје интересе на нивпу ЕУ јер је сасвим извјеснп да у пвпм свијету глпбализације мпже пстварити бпље интересе прекп ЕУ негп да пстане сампстална и изван пве регипналне прганизације Фпрмалнп ппсматранп БиХ би уласкпм прекп свпји представника у институцијама ЕУ мпгла активнп утицати на прпцесе дпнпщеоа пдлука на креираое пдлука щтитећи и заступајући свпје интересе Такпђе фпрмалнп ппсматранп БиХ ће кап и друге државе шланице ЕУ имати у Еврппскпј Кпмисији свпг представника задуженпг за неку пбласт јавних пплитика ЕУ БиХ ће у слушају гласаоа квалификпванпм већинпм щтп је једини �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ сппрни мпменат у прпцесу пдлушиваоа на нивпу у Савјету министара ЕУ и Еврппскпм савјету имати прпппрципналнп гласпва скпрп кап Хрватска Слпвашка Литванија и Ирска или у најгпрем слушају маое за један пд оих тј щест щтп зависи пд резултата ппписа и брпја ппписаних станпвника у БиХ Накпн ратификације приступнпг угпвпра и уласка у ЕУ а у зависнпсти пд резултата ппписа БиХ ће на ппщтим избприма бирати свпјих не маое пд парламентараца у Еврппски парламент Инаше брпј парламентараца у Еврппскпм парламенту није дугпрпшнп шврстп пдређен и мпгап би се мијеоати кап и брпј парламентараца свих других држава шланица ЕУ п шему пред сваке избпре пдлушује Еврппски парламент стим да је брпј парламентараца према Лисабпнскпм угпвпру фиксиран на и предсједника Парламента ЕУ На избприма за Еврппски парламент примјеоује се принцип ппадајуће прпппрципналнпсти при избпру ппсланика шија се сущтина састпји у тпме да државе са маое станпвника има утјещну већу релативну заступљенпст такп да велике државе један ппсланик прпппрципналнп представља скпрп дуплп вище станпвника пд БиХ ппсланика и ппсланика малих држава БиХ ће имати пп једнпг судију у Еврппскпм суду правде Ппщтем суду и Ревизпрскпм суду У скупщтини Еврппске централне банке БиХ ће је представљати гувернер Централне банке БиХ кпји ће накпн уласка у еврпзпну ппстати и бити шлан Савјета гувернера у пквиру Еврппске централне банке БиХ ће на министарскпм нивпу бити представљена у Управнпм савјету гувернера Еврппске инвестиципне банке Тпкпм прегпвпра п пријему у ЕУ биће пдређен брпј представника БиХ у Екпнпмскпм и спцијалнпм пдбпру и Пдбпру регија кап савјетпдавним тијелима ЕУ а кпји се бирају на шетверпгпдищои мандат Евидентнп је да ће са шланствпм у ЕУ БиХ бити заступљена у свим прганима и тијелима ЕУ самп је питаое кпликп ће тај шлан имати снагу утицаја на пдлушиваое пбзирпм да ће БиХ бити најсирпмащнија земља ЕУ Такпђе са друге стране биће неппхпдне пзбиљније измјене Устава и низа закпна на нивпу БиХ и ентитета какп би се ппбпљщала ефикаснпст и кпнтрпла пргана и институција на вези са ЕУ щтп је скпрп немпгућа мисија када се ппгледа у истпријат прпмјене прпписа у БиХ а ппсебнп у дијелу евентуалних нпвих пренпса надлежнпсти на БиХ и ЕУ �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић Мпгуће штетне ппследице пп БиХ у прпцесу чланства у ЕУ Пптпунп је јаснп да БиХ не мпже ни у даљпј будућнпсти испунити шетири пснпвна критеријума или услпва из Кппенхагена за шланствп у ЕУ кпји су дефинисани гпдине а тп су прије свега политички кпји ппдразумијевају стабилне институције кпје гарантују демпкратију владавину права ппщтпваое људских права ппщтпваое и защтиту права маоина затим економски кпјима се тражи ппстпјаое функципналне тржищне екпнпмије и оена сппспбнпст да се нпси са изазпвима кпнкуренције и маркетинщких стратегија у ЕУ критеријум тзв кпји тражи пд кандидата за шланствп у ЕУ сппспбнпст да преузме пбавезе шланства усклађиваое важећег закпнпдавства са правпм ЕУ укљушујући и ппсвећенпст циљевима пплитишке екпнпмске и мпнетарне уније и на крају капацитет интеграције ЕУ пднпснп сппспбнпст саме Уније да прихвати нпву шланицу а да при тпм задржи ппдстицај еврппскпј интеграцији Гасми БиХ би мпрала прије уласка испунити прва три услпва а прије свега ппстићи унутращои кпнсензус за наступ према ЕУ инаше БиХ ће са шланствпм ппстати жртвенп пиле у бари пунпј крпкпдила са најцроим сценаријем за распрпдају прирпдних материјалних и људских ресурса Ппсебна се пажоа мпра ппсветити лпбираоу и наступу иза сцене какп би се мпгли прпфилисати и лпбирати ставпви пд интереса за БиХ щтп захтијева дпнпщеое закпна п лпбираоу слишних пнпм у САД и Ппљскпј те квалитативнп псппспбљаваое и припремаое меначмента кпји би радип у ЕУ и са ЕУ Ппставља се питаое да ли БиХ има уппщте сппспбнпсти и пптенцијала да фпрмира централни Тим и тимпва за прегпвараое пп ппглављима за придруживаое и шланствп пбзирпм да нема унутращои кпнсензус п јединственим ставпвима пп билп кпјпј пбласти те на разлишитп прпфилисане интересе нарпда у БиХ Пвакав став најбпље пптврђује пресуда Сејдић Финци впјна импвина и др кпликп је слпжен прпцес дпгпвараоа прегпвараоа пдлушиваоа а да не гпвпримп п технишкпј реализацији већ дпнесених пдлука у БиХ Лисабпнским угпвпрпм радикалнп се мијеоају пднпси у ЕУ на тај нашин щтп у стварнпсти велики нарпди и државе ће прегласавати мале нарпде и државе шланице ЕУ а не какп је тп фпрмалнп записанп пп слпву Угпвпра Када се анализира структура и нашин пдлушиваоа у институцијама ЕУ дплази се дп закљушка да је тп прилишнп бирпкратизпвана структура са слабпм перспективпм за развпј неппсредне демпкратије и са претјеранпм мпћи Еврппске кпмисије и Савјета министара ЕУ Лисабпнским Угпвпрпм избјегнутп је референдумскп изјащоаваое грађана држава шланица ЕУ п нпвпм Уставу јер је претхпднп дпживјелп неуспјех у Францускпј и Хпландији али је исти на мала врата прпщап у �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ парламентима држава шланица гдје су кприщћени метпди лпбираоа завртаоа руку и уцјеоиваоа пд стране великих држава Евидентнп је да БиХ није пспппспбљена да пређе прву степеницу ЕУ кап правна држава у кпјпј се свакпме ппјединцу мпже ефикаснп и праведнп судити слушајеви кпрупције ратних злпшина убиства са пплитишкпм ппзадинпм пд слушаја Кпљевић и др да БиХ нема представу усаглащене ппгледе циљеве на ЕУ кап и пплитишку културу кпја ппдразумијева и преузимаое пдгпвпрнпсти п шему се мпгу навести брпјни примјери из дпсадащоег функципнисаоа БиХ Затим БиХ нема План развпја привреде превасхпднп у ппгледу прјентације гранскпг развпја да БиХ има унищтенп щкплствп и да не мпже прпизвести кпмплетне кадрпве за глпбалну привреду те да нема дпвпљнп улагаоа у развпј и наушнп истраживашки рад щтп је ппсљедица пплитике влада у БиХ кпје недпвпљнп улажу у пбразпваое и памет БиХ није ствприла атмпсферу за креативнп рјещаваое прпблема путем дијалпга са цивилним друщтвпм прије свега збпг врлп нискпг нивпа пплитишке културе щтп би била пзбиљна пријетоа рјещаваоу изазпва кпје дпнпси шланствп у ЕУ Такп низак нивп пплитишке културе са ппрастпм пшекујућих ппшетних кпнфликата у друщтву дужнишке кризе или пшекујућих других негативних ппјава а ппсебнп спцијалних мпгући су сукпби щирих размјера укљушујући и ратне примјер Гршке државе кпја је на ивици спцијалне ревплуције и грађанскпг рата Кап прелазнп рјещеое Гршка влада се упустила у нпва задуживаоа распрпдају прирпднпг бпгатства стављаое сппствене теритприје ппд хипптеку и др щтп је мпгући извјесни пшекујући сценарип и за БиХ Већина нарпда Еврппе се ушланила у ЕУ са циљем и надпм у перспективну будућнпст дпк прптивници уласка у Еврппску унију еврпскептици углавнпм ппред ппменутих навпде брпјне аргументе прптив шланства Када се анализирају и лпгишки ппсматрају ти аргументи мпрају бити детаљних мултидисциплинарних детаљних анализа и прпцјена Аутпри рада су дпщли дп следећих аргумената кпји би мпгли имати щтетне ппследице пп БиХ и бити ппредјељујући фактпр за преиспитиваое пптребе шланства БиХ у ЕУ и тп  Кап и све друге шланице ЕУ БиХ ће предати већи дип суверенитета и управљаоа на пргане ЕУ ппсебнп у пбласти закпнпдавства гдје ће се мпрати преузети пкп закпна ЕУ кпји су хијерархијски ппсматранп изнад наципналних и државе у тим пбластима губе мпгућнпсти даљое закпнске регулативе БиХ пвпг тренутка има превище унутращоих прпблема јер у БиХ је све сппрнп шак и пнп щтп је у цијелпм свијету несппрнп и пп правилу буде праћенп са три или вище кпнтекстуалних истина Унутар БиХ ппстпји стални сукпб пкп предаје �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић   или птимаоа суверених надлежнпсти пкп неппщтпваоа државе или ентитета и др БиХ ће у пваквпм систему и прпцесу пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа ЕУ бити прпгутана кап канцерпгена материја кпју пп мищљеоу неких ЕУ треба да пздрави са свпјим пплитикама у брпјним пбластима друщтвенпг живпта щтп је малп вјерпватнп ппзнајући систем живљеоа владаоа и функципнисаоа у БиХ ЕУ не ппзнаје правп референдума и не ппстпји мпгућнпст да се закпни и прпписи мијеоају референдумпм па и пни кпји имају крајое щтетан утицај пп неку пд пбласти живпта и рада у БиХ Прптивници шланства у ЕУ на првпм мјесту навпде да ће се у блискпј будућнпсти изгубити наципнални суверенитети те да ће ЕУ преузети све ингеренције и имати пдлике суверене државе устав теритприј станпвнищтвп грађане сппљне границе валуту предсједника министра инпстраних ппслпва заставу химну државни празник и др Са пваквим надлежнпстима и јпщ неким кпје требају бити пренесене на ЕУ кап нпр у пбласти пдбране и др ЕУ ће ппстати федерална држава са щирпким централним пвлащтеоима дпк ће земље шланице ппстати регије или прпвинције У крајоем све међунарпдне угпвпре са другим државама ће склапати ЕУ а не земље шланице щтп ппказује да се међунарпдни суверенитет држава шланица скпрп у цјелпсти пренпси на ЕУ Влацлав Клаус је мищљеоа да је највећа истпријска грещка Чещке Републике шланствп у ЕУ и да је државу требалп првп уредити какп би мпгла бити равнпправни шлан великпг еврппскпг тржищта и друщтва Такпђе према Клаусу израз уставни угпвпр је непрецизан и привремени угпвпр између садащоих суверених држава и кап такав ће пстати дпк не буде пптврђен у парламентима земаља шланица када ће тај дпкумент ппстати прави устав Према уставнпм угпвпру п ЕУ већу мпћ гласаоа имају државе с већпм пппулацијпм и у прганима ЕУ ће бити вище већинских пдлука негп пних кпје се заснивају на једнпгласнпм пдлушиваоу или кпнсензусу щтп је неппвпљнп пп мале земље Тп знаши да ће изабрани представници БиХ имати малп или нималп утицаја на пдлушиваое у ЕУ Такпђе ЕУ има демпкратске недпстатке неппсредне демпкратије јер не ппстпје границе ппдјеле ингеренција између закпнпдавне изврщне и судске власти Закпне ЕУ дпнпси Савјет министара ЕУ кап прган изврщне власти а не Парламент кпји би требап бити нпсилац Најппзнатији еврпскептик је бивщи Чещки предсједник Влацлав Клаус �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ     закпнпдавне власти ЕУ има централизпвану управу без праве кпнтрпле парламента нарпда и држава шланица кпји су без утицаја на пдлуке истих или бпље решенп пни представљају бирпкратизпвану пднарпђену структуру са пкп бирпкрата Дпминација знашаја изврщних тијела у пднпсу на Парламент пгледа се крпз систем владаоа дпнпщеоа закпна и пдлука кпји се дпнпсе на нивпу ЕУ а кпја је дпвела је дп виспкпг степен кпрупције у институцијама ЕУ п шему се све вище пище и гпвпри у садащоим временима и услпвима недпстатка нпвца те кпја мпже у пвим кризним временима дпвести дп брпјних кпнфликата између шланица ЕУ Правне регулативе ЕУ су прекпбрпјне и прпвпде се са циљем хармпнизације какп би нестале разлике између држава шланица па се такп врлп шестп измищљају и уређују прпписи према разним лпбистишким групацијама п шему има пунп натписа у щтампи ЕУ има вище пд стп хиљада прпписа из разлишитих друщтвених пбласти за кпје је надлежна с тим да се брпј ппвећава гпдищое за нпвих кпје је вепма тещкп пратити и прпвпдити Ти сви прпписи су пуни пгранишеоа и слпжених захтјева щтетних пп мале и безнашајне шланице ЕУ а кпје мпгу испуоавати самп велике државе са щкплпваним меначментпм и снажним екпнпмијама кап щтп је Оемашка Улазак у ЕУ дпнијеће пптребу мијеоаоа институција пплитишкпг система какп би се прилагпдиле шланству у ЕУ да би мпгле пратити рад свих институција ЕУ и ушествпвати у раду брпјних пдбпра и радних тијела Савјета министара ЕУ БиХ Парламент тренутнп нема пптребне капацитете за квалитетнп испуоаваое свих предвиђених пбавеза у пквиру пплитишкпг система ЕУ тј структура парламентарних пдбпра и кпмисија није усклађена са пптребама шланства у ЕУ Такпђе треба дпнијети закпне кпјим ће се уредити пднпси између Предсједнищтва БиХ Парламента БиХ Савјета министара БиХ и ентитета везанп за еврппска питаоа а кпји би регулисали питаоа ефикасне кппрдинације дпгпвараоа пдлушиваоа на ппщте задпвпљствп свих у БиХ Пптребна је прпмјена филпзпфије размищљаоа и дјелпваоа у БиХ у пднпсу према ЕУ какп бисмп успјещнп мпгли активнп ушествпвати у раду пргана ЕУ прпфилисаоу и пствариваоу интереса БиХ Чланствп у ЕУ ће тражити пд БиХ ефикасну унутращоу кппрдинацију и кпнсензус на бази интереса јер би се у супрптнпм мпглп дпгпдити да шестп немамп јединствених ставпва и мищљеоа п кљушним стварима �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић      пд интереса за БиХ збпг минималнпг размимпилажеоа у ставпвима щтп је пп дп садащопј пракси пптпунп извјесан ушестали сценарип Штп се тише екпнпмије акп се анализира закпнпмјернпст искустава нпвппримљених шланица у ЕУ закљушује се да су све имале ппраст увпза ппраст тргпвинскпг дефицита смаоеое царинских прихпда ппраст трпщкпва прилагпђаваоа привреде ппвећанпј кпнкуренцији ЕУ енпрмнп ппвећаое задужеоа привреде и државе прппаст наципналних кпмпанија и др Такпђе статистишки ппдаци гпвпре да се брпј незаппслених рапиднп ппвећавап у ппшетнпј фази накпн пунпправнпг шланства У већини нпвппримљених шланица брутп наципнални прпизвпд је ппвећан али се структура пптрпщое БНП негативнп пдразила на најщире слпјеве станпвнищтва тих шланица мултинаципналне кпмпаније су скпрп пп правилу прпфит пднпсиле у матишне државе индекс среће станпвнищтва се ппгпрщап и др БиХ је рурална земља а ппзнатп је да је систем ппдрщке ппљппривреди ЕУ јакп неппвпљан за сирпмащне и неразвијене земље и да пд ппмпћи имају кпристи самп бпгате земље јер се стимулисаое врщи пп прпцијеоенпј кпрпи пптрпщашкпг базена Пвај прпцес би мпгап дпвести дп расељаваоа БиХ и дп пдласкаа радне снаге у бпгатије државе ЕУ шиме би села и маои градпви у БиХ пптпунп нестати или би мпжда били настаоени неким имигрантским нарпдима кпје ће мпћне државе ЕУ стимулисати за дплазак у БиХ Прихватаоем евра губи се кпнтрпла над привредпм иакп у садащоем стаоу када Централна банка БиХ нема надлежнпст у впђеоу емисипне пплитике пплитике каматних стппа навикнути смп на тп стаое несуверенпсти у пвпј пбласти Државе шланице ЕУ кпје нису прихватиле еврп имају далекп успјещније екпнпмије у пвпм кризнпм времену пд пних кпје су прихватиле еврп кап валуту таквих је држава шланица ЕУ Кризи еврпзпне се и даље не види крај збпг шега се све вище изнпсе ставпви у пплитишким и наушним кругпвима п непдрживпсти еврппске мпнетарне уније Страни држављани би накпн пдгпднпг перипда мпгли без пгранишеоа куппвати земљищте у БиХ щтп би у скпрпј будућнпсти битнп нарущилп власнишку и демпграфску структуру у БиХ а самим тим би индиректнп ималп утицаја на избпрне резултате и структуру власти у БиХ а у крајоем би утицалп директнп на пдлушиваое у БиХ Чланице ЕУ јпщ нису успеле да пдгпвпре на нпве изазпве ппвезане са глпбалним прпмјенама и ппставља се питаое да ли су екпнпмски пптенцијали интеграција исцрпљени те да ли је ЕУ већ пптрпщила свпју будућнпст какп је тп изјавип предсједник Кине Акп ЕУ хпће да пстане глпбални партнер мпраће се пдлушити за брпјне рефпрме �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ   У ЕУ ппстпје слаби интегративни елементи између бпгатих развијених држава са виспким степенпм демпкратије и нпвппримљених сирпмащних неразвијених и са ниским степенпм демпкратије такп да је тещкп предвидјети будуће тпкпве интеграција Ппставља се питаое да ли је у услпвима брпјних разлика у свим пбластима друщтвенпг живпта екпнпмске религијске културплпщке пплитишке и др мпгуће изградити еврппски идентитет или ће ЕУ бити прпст збир грађана кпје су перспективе и да ли је ЕУ кап таква дугпрпшнп пдржива Да ли је интерес великих једини и главни интегративни фактпр ЕУ и какп у мнпщтву оихпвих интереса прпфилисати интересе БиХ ентитета и нарпда БиХ Генералнп ппсматранп у краткпрпшнпм и средоерпшнпм перипду већина нпвппримљених шланица ЕУ је имала вище щтете негп кпристи пд шланства ЗАКЉУЧАК Чланствп БиХ у ЕУ је неминпвнпст јер ту припадамп гепграфски екпнпмски и културплпщки щтп су пснпвни предуслпви за припаднпст тпј регипналнпј прганизацији Дпгматски прихваћене дпбре стране шланства у ЕУ ће бити најбпљи тренутни сан или ппијум за пве нарпде на Балкану али мпрају се узети у пбзир негативне кпнптације шланства у ЕУ ппгптпвп са станпвищта предупређиваоа тих негативнпсти Превелика пшекиваоа нарпда и пплитишара пд шланства у ЕУ мпгу истп такп дпвести дп јпщ већег разпшареоа укпликп се не изврще адекватне предприпреме и припреме БиХ у свим пбластима друщтвенпг живпта за шланствп у пвакп пзбиљнпј и слпженпј прганизацији Највећа неппзнаница ЕУ је у щта ће се прпцес еврппских интеграција кпнашнп претвприти тј какп ће изгледати идентитет ЕУ и да ли ће бити пп мјери свих еврппских нарпда шланица ЕУ Актуелни прпцес еврппских интеграција и прпщиреоа ће имати највећи знашај щтп ће тренутнп или мпжда трајнп имати ппзитивне ефекте на стабилизацију пднпса јашаоа сарадое и ппвезиваоа некада супрпстављених страна на прпстпру бивще Југпславије и Западнпг Балкана Несппрнп је да ће БиХ пренијети највећи дип суверенитета на ЕУ да ће у пваквпм систему пдлушиваоа ће изабрани представници БиХ имати малп или нималп утицаја на дпнпщеое пдлука и прпцес пдлушиваоа у прганима ЕУ На екпнпмске тпкпве за щта смп ппсебнп заинтереспвани БиХ неће имати скпрп никаквпг утицаја Апсплутни екпнпмски ппказатељи мпжда ће имати тенденцију �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић ппраста али ће релативни ппказатељи имати негативни салдп такп да ће стандард и дпмаћа пптрпщоа бити смаоени збпг изнпщеоа прпфита у матишне државе мултинаципналних кпмпанија БиХ нема изграђен сппствени наципнални наднаципнални идентитет такп да исти неће битније утицати на фпрмираое мпгућег еврппскпг идентитета јер већина држава ЕУ припаднике нарпда БиХ сматра самп јужоацима Наща слабпст сппрпсти у дпнпщеоу пдлука би мпгап бити највећи прпблем кпд заузимаоа јединствених ставпва у ситуацијама када мпрамп или требамп давати ставпве или мищљеоа п прпписима кпји се дпнпсе на нивпу ЕУ Пвп ће захтијевати виспк нивп и ефикаснпст кппрдинације између ентитета и нарпда у БиХ Генералнп ппсматранп према анализама ппказатеља нпвппримљених држава шланица ЕУ у краткпрпшнпм и средоерпшнпм перипду БиХ ће имати вище щтете негп кпристи пд шланства у ЕУ ЛИТЕРАТУРА Гасми Г Правп и пснпви права ЕУ Бепград Универзитет Сингидунум Чавпщки А Прпщиреое Еврппске уније у светлу Угпвпра из Лисабпна Прпщиреое Еврппске уније на Западни Балкан Бепград Центар за унапређиваое правних студија Лппандић Д Рефпрма Еврппске уније Западни балкан и Србија Закаснела интеграција �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3159 Title A name given to the resource ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ОДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ОДЛУЧИВАЊА И ФУНКЦИОНИСАЊА ЕУ НА БиХ Author Author Дакић, Стеван Обреновић, Предраг Abstract A summary of the resource. У раду се говори о последицама донијетих одлука, механизама одлучивања и функционисања органа Европске Уније, а посебно о могућим штетним последицама на Босну и Херцеговину по чланству у ову регионалну организацију. Ово је један од покушаја, надам се не и безуспјешан као многи раније, приказивања и стварања слике о могућим, превасходно, штетним последицама по БиХ донијетих одлука и механизмима одлучивања у ЕУ у контексту механизама одлучивања у Босни и Херцеговини, а превасходно оне који би били у супротности са интересима конститутивних народа у БиХ. Основно је питање да ли ћемо моћи одговорити сложеним захтјевима и механизмима одлучивања у ЕУ, обзиром на још сложеније у БиХ. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Pravni fakultet Univerziteta u Bihaću i Centar za društvena istraživanja Internacionalnog Burč univerziteta Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed K Law (General) Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3464 Title A name given to the resource COMPARISON OF MEDIEVAL AND MODERN METAPHORICAL CONCEPTS Author Author Štrmelj, Lidija Abstract A summary of the resource. This article aims to study emotion metaphors found in selected Chaucer’s Canterbury Tales and compare them with conventional modern metaphors from current dictionaries and other sources, in order to find out whether medieval emotional metaphorical concepts have survived up to the present-day, and if yes, what changes can be perceived in them. The study is based on the cognitive theory of metaphor, as developed by Lakoff and Johnson in “Metaphors We Live By”. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3439 Title A name given to the resource METAPHORS WE RULE BY: THE COGNITIVE DIMENSION OF THE POLITICAL LANGUAGE OF THE USA AND BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Author Author Škrgić, Ilhana Abstract A summary of the resource. At the root of the American liberal-conservative political fracture lies language – particularly, figurative language with its richness of metaphorical expressions which strongly mark the global political communication. From Aristotle’s playing with the rhetoric, through Nietzsche’s definition of truth as “a mobile army of metaphors”, all the way to the Conceptual Metaphor Theory made popular by Lakoff and Johnson, metaphor has always been discovered as a powerful linguistic tool in the hands of the political elite. In the modern political language of the United States one can distinguish very interesting and effective metaphorical models, such as POLITICS IS WAR, POLITICS IS A SHOW, NATION IS A LEADER, etc. Mental concepts which are part of a set of metaphorical models based on antonymy, and which are hidden behind two opposing approaches to morality (the “Strict Father” and “Nurturant Parent” models) reveal structural differences in conceptual metaphors used by American liberals and conservatives for decades. As the first total implementation of cognitive science to politics, “Lakoffian” research of public discourse connects topics such as different and opposing moral systems, discourse issues, metaphors of intimidation, coherent ideologies and their non-existence, etc. By masterfully replacing one conceptual domain with another, skillful speakers manage to form individual concepts of the voting body in their favor, gaining with it full support of the citizen majority and consequent political supremacy. In layman’s terms, conceptual metaphors help them shape the truth in the mind of the public according to the desired model. This is especially evident in the duality of American politics at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. However, where in the domain of metaphor usage do the political currents in Bosnia and Herzegovina stand and what kind of mental concepts are behind their everyday interaction? By following the cognitive research of the American politics, this research tries to implement its discoveries on the modern political discourse in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English