200 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e04c5db0b57f54e9a07bdda49831abb1.pdf b2197890b25bffe294e2e0ecdf762b8e PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Forecasting EURO/TRY Exchange Rates With Artificial Neural Networks Ali Göksu International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina agoksu@ibu.edu.ba Olcay Erdoğan International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina olcay.erdogan@sarajevocollege.ba Forecasting of financial data has been a field of research since the efficiency of prediction is essential for future investments. Forecasting exchange rates is not a simple task because it is influenced by many factors and linear models are not able to capture nonlinear relationships in the data. Therefore Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in financial forecasting problems since it is capable of handling complex data. The aim of this study is to consider predictive accuracy of ANNs with SBP (Standard Back propagation) and normalized back propagation using the historical EUR/TRY exchange rates. The data is obtained from CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) and TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute) over the period 2008-2013. Several factors affect the accuracy of neural network in the implementation process. Various structures are built by changing the number of neurons, number of layers and learning algorithms to acquire higher performance. This empirical research has been a comparative study of accuracy in different ANN architectures. The results are evaluated by MSE (Mean Squared Error) values of each case and it has been found out that ANNs can closely forecast the future EUR/TRY exchange rates. Keywords: ANN, back propagation, exchange rate forecasting, financial time series 33 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1481 Title A name given to the resource Forecasting EURO/TRY Exchange Rates With Artificial Neural Networks Author Author GÖKSU, Ali ERDOGAN, Olcay Abstract A summary of the resource. Forecasting of financial data has been a field of research since the efficiency of prediction is essential for future investments. Forecasting exchange rates is not a simple task because it is influenced by many factors and linear models are not able to capture nonlinear relationships in the data. Therefore Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in financial forecasting problems since it is capable of handling complex data. The aim of this study is to consider predictive accuracy of ANNs with SBP (Standard Back propagation) and normalized back propagation using the historical EUR/TRY exchange rates. The data is obtained from CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) and TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute) over the period 2008-2013. Several factors affect the accuracy of neural network in the implementation process. Various structures are built by changing the number of neurons, number of layers and learning algorithms to acquire higher performance. This empirical research has been a comparative study of accuracy in different ANN architectures. The results are evaluated by MSE (Mean Squared Error) values of each case and it has been found out that ANNs can closely forecast the future EUR/TRY exchange rates. Keywords: ANN, back propagation, exchange rate forecasting, financial time series Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/15afb72cc9a8ca748c3d5c6e01f8ea5e.pdf c2ab8ecf92ada928ff4038d0ae3a8da3 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Improving the Productivity of Industry-University Collaboration: The Example of Gaziantep University Buket Gültekin İnce Kilis 7 Aralık University, Kilis, Turkey buketgultekinince@kilis.edu.tr Nowadays, knowledge has become important as a competitive weapon (Van Dierdonck et al., 1990) and competitive environment causes to pressure on organisations to impel their boundaries, when the aim is to be leader of the knowledge advancement. When there is an inter-organisational collaboration, more beneficial knowledge can be created compared to each organisation working alone, because integrative resources and capabilities that emanate from collaboration of organisations create synergy. (Santoro & Gopalakrishnan, 2000) Universities are establishments that have strategic roles such as education, scientific research and publication in the development of societies. The development of the welfare of the societies requires benefiting from scientific and technological studies effectively. Scientific thoughts should be integrated with the lifestyles of the society to show improvements. Relationship between researchers and external organisations is one of the most important ways for the transformation of the knowledge to practical implementations. (Çelik & Tufan, 2010) This paper focuses on relationship between universities that employ a lot of researchers and industrial establishments which perform practical implementations. Research on university-industry collaboration has increased in recent years because of globalisation. With the increasing of globalisation, competitiveness has become more significant than previous years. Firms, universities and other organisations must be strong to survive in their areas. To be strong they may need help about some issues. For instance, firms need to be innovative for new products or processes and universities need some funds for their research and development studies. Single case study will be used in this study and data will be collected by conducting interview with a specialist of university-industry collaboration development in Gaziantep University. This study proceeds as follows: First, industry-university collaboration will be explained. Secondly, components and obstacles of this relationship will be concatenated. Thirdly, the case of Gaziantep University will be indicated. Finally, some suggestions will be given on how to improve the productivity of university-industry collaboration. Keywords: industry, university, collaboration, knowledge transfer, technology transfer 69 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1535 Title A name given to the resource Improving the Productivity of Industry-University Collaboration: The Example of Gaziantep University Author Author GULTEKIN INCE, Buket Abstract A summary of the resource. Nowadays, knowledge has become important as a competitive weapon (Van Dierdonck et al., 1990) and competitive environment causes to pressure on organisations to impel their boundaries, when the aim is to be leader of the knowledge advancement. When there is an inter-organisational collaboration, more beneficial knowledge can be created compared to each organisation working alone, because integrative resources and capabilities that emanate from collaboration of organisations create synergy. (Santoro & Gopalakrishnan, 2000) Universities are establishments that have strategic roles such as education, scientific research and publication in the development of societies. The development of the welfare of the societies requires benefiting from scientific and technological studies effectively. Scientific thoughts should be integrated with the lifestyles of the society to show improvements. Relationship between researchers and external organisations is one of the most important ways for the transformation of the knowledge to practical implementations. (Çelik & Tufan, 2010) This paper focuses on relationship between universities that employ a lot of researchers and industrial establishments which perform practical implementations. Research on university-industry collaboration has increased in recent years because of globalisation. With the increasing of globalisation, competitiveness has become more significant than previous years. Firms, universities and other organisations must be strong to survive in their areas. To be strong they may need help about some issues. For instance, firms need to be innovative for new products or processes and universities need some funds for their research and development studies. Single case study will be used in this study and data will be collected by conducting interview with a specialist of university-industry collaboration development in Gaziantep University. This study proceeds as follows: First, industry-university collaboration will be explained. Secondly, components and obstacles of this relationship will be concatenated. Thirdly, the case of Gaziantep University will be indicated. Finally, some suggestions will be given on how to improve the productivity of university-industry collaboration. Keywords: industry, university, collaboration, knowledge transfer, technology transfer Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/7e9de4ba648ba151f3e63ce7d7c700cb.pdf 7bb9ce2fba288d4c01b049302bd5cca6 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Effects of European Debt Crisis on the Budget Deficits and Debt Stocks of Developing Countries Hüseyin Güçlü Çiçek Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey huseyincicek@sdu.edu.tr Süleyman Dikmen Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey The crisis that had started in the US real estate market in 2007 spread to the other countries of the world particularly with the strong financial relations channel and turned into a global fiscal and real sector crisis. The adverse effects of the crisis were significantly experienced in the EU. The preliminary effects of the crisis were experienced in the weakest link, Greece and spread to the other EU countries. The crisis caused budget deficits and debt stocks to reach crucial levels and put risks on the sustainability of public finance in Greece, Italia, Spain, Ireland and Portugal. Developing countries have strong financial links with European countries and the debt crisis burst in Europe has spread to developing countries. European debt crisis has affected developing countries through three different channels: financial contagion, Europe’s fiscal consolidation effects, and exchange rate effects. In the study, the effects of the crisis on the budget deficit and debt stock of developing countries are examined through chosen country samples. Furthermore the fiscal effects of the crisis on developing countries are compared. The fundamental hypothesis of the study is that developing countries have affected from the crises less than developed countries, developing countries are still the basic determinant of global growth; but the crisis has retarded this growth. On the other hand, it is thought that, the decrease in the public expenditure of developed countries has caused financial resources that are reserved for supporting the development of underdeveloped and developing countries to diminish. Two basic financial indicators of the Maastricht Criteria are the debt to GDP and fiscal deficit to GDP ratios. These two indicators are for the assurance of fiscal stability. Those countries that experienced the crisis mostly could not meet these two criteria. In order to ensure budget stability, developing countries were more successful in maintaining the rates of debt to GDP and budget deficit to GDP around certain levels. This 162 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo success is quite crucial for accomplishing significant and sustainable public finance policies. In addition it is observed that the duration of crisis periods in developing European countries is longer than other developing countries. The debt stocks of European countries caused crisis to last longer in the developing countries of the region. Keywords: Budget Deficit, Debt Stock, Developing Countries, European Debt Crisis, Fiscal Stability. 163 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1648 Title A name given to the resource The Effects of European Debt Crisis on the Budget Deficits and Debt Stocks of Developing Countries Author Author GUCLU CICEK, Huseyin DIKMEN, Suleyman Abstract A summary of the resource. The crisis that had started in the US real estate market in 2007 spread to the other countries of the world particularly with the strong financial relations channel and turned into a global fiscal and real sector crisis. The adverse effects of the crisis were significantly experienced in the EU. The preliminary effects of the crisis were experienced in the weakest link, Greece and spread to the other EU countries. The crisis caused budget deficits and debt stocks to reach crucial levels and put risks on the sustainability of public finance in Greece, Italia, Spain, Ireland and Portugal. Developing countries have strong financial links with European countries and the debt crisis burst in Europe has spread to developing countries. European debt crisis has affected developing countries through three different channels: financial contagion, Europe’s fiscal consolidation effects, and exchange rate effects. In the study, the effects of the crisis on the budget deficit and debt stock of developing countries are examined through chosen country samples. Furthermore the fiscal effects of the crisis on developing countries are compared. The fundamental hypothesis of the study is that developing countries have affected from the crises less than developed countries, developing countries are still the basic determinant of global growth; but the crisis has retarded this growth. On the other hand, it is thought that, the decrease in the public expenditure of developed countries has caused financial resources that are reserved for supporting the development of underdeveloped and developing countries to diminish. Two basic financial indicators of the Maastricht Criteria are the debt to GDP and fiscal deficit to GDP ratios. These two indicators are for the assurance of fiscal stability. Those countries that experienced the crisis mostly could not meet these two criteria. In order to ensure budget stability, developing countries were more successful in maintaining the rates of debt to GDP and budget deficit to GDP around certain levels. This success is quite crucial for accomplishing significant and sustainable public finance policies. In addition it is observed that the duration of crisis periods in developing European countries is longer than other developing countries. The debt stocks of European countries caused crisis to last longer in the developing countries of the region. Keywords: Budget Deficit, Debt Stock, Developing Countries, European Debt Crisis, Fiscal Stability. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/eb3e1161254b176a2bcbb07f1835eac8.pdf 7a5d8203e03fb130da5b2447a033b0d0 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Implementation of Information System in Coal Mine Kakanj Haris Goralija International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina haris.goralija@live.com Meliha Handzic International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina mhandzic@ibu.edu.ba Safety management is one of the most important tasks in the coal mining sector. It is argued that an appropriate information system that monitors safety information can improve the coal mine safety management and reduce the occurrences of disasters. Therefore, the primary aim of this paper is to study the implementation and impact of a specific information system implemented in the Coal Mine Kakanj, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The focus of the study was on examining employees’ satisfaction with their implemented information system. Data were collected through interviews of employees who were system users. Their collected responses were analyzed using qualitative methods. The analyses performed revealed some interesting results. Their implications for the coal mine safety management were discussed and several plausible directions for future research are recommended. Keywords: Information System, Kakanj, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Coal Mine 148 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/db41de4c41d3ec5fff1e97bf8754d5b8.docx 9220d998edeb846b00c9f97831d4eb2d https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/5d1d071cdb51cc764d49fd9eb39f9702.pdf 8bc7e78a09cee497517a7ee4dd8fe248 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Information System Implementation in Kakanj Coal Mine Haris Goralija International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina haris.goralija@live.com Meliha Handzic International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina mhandzic@ibu.edu.ba Abstract The primary aim of this paper is to report a case study of the implementation of an information system in the Kakanj Coal Mine, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The study examined a variety of aspects pertaining to the information system implementation from the professional and end user perspectives. Data were collected from the available documentation, and from interviews with the information systems support staff and surveys of employees who were system users. The collected responses were analyzed using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Due to the time constraint imposed on the authors, only the preliminary qualitative findings are reported here. Keywords: Information systems (IS), IS implementation, coal mine, case study, Bosnia and Herzegovina Introduction Literature has widely recognized the importance of information systems in the mining sector. At the industry level, a web-based one-stop shop information management system was developed to offer invaluable opportunity to share state-of-the-art knowledge for the whole coal mining sector in Australia (Porter et al. 2011). Similar portals are made available by the UK Coal Authority (http://coal.decc.gov.uk/) and by the Indiana Coal Industry in the USA (http://igs.indiana.edu/Coal/). At the organizational level, information systems are considered valuable for assisting mining businesses in operational decision making (Carter 2006), production management and control (Minfo 2011) and mine safety management (Yang and Song 2010), to mention just a few technical areas of the mine operations. More than that, information systems may play an important role in supporting all primary and secondary activities along the mine’s value chain (Porter, 1985) by providing relevant and trustworthy information where and when needed. Coal mining represents an important sector of the economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With its economic significance on one side and the demanding time constraints, high safety expectations and production goals on the other side, the mining management requires an appropriate information system support to meet these challenges. The purpose of this study is to examine the issue in the leading coal mine in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Kakanj Coal Mine. Specifically, the study will answer the following four research questions: 1 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) How does mine’s information system support organisational business processes? Do employees use this system and for what purposes? How satisfied are users with their system, service and information it provides? Why are some aspects (if any) of the implemented system not in use? Research Context The Kakanj Coal Mine is based in the town of Kakanj in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Established in 1902, the mine boasts over a 100-year-old tradition. The company engages in both underground and surface coal mining. It also manufactures and markets briquettes. According to the current information available on the mine’s website (http://www.rmukakanj.ba/onama.php), the company employs 2020 workers distributed in six organizational units. The existing mine capacities enable the production of 1.2 million tons of coal per year. By investing in further development, this amount can be gradually increased to 1.5 - 2.0 million tons per year. Investment in coal mining is linked directly to modernization and development of production capacities of the Kakanj thermoelectric power facility. By investing in both the mine and the power facility, Bosnia and Herzegovina can ensure a stable production of electric energy in the long term. The mine’s vision and mission statements emphasize its aimed regional and global positioning in the energy sector; its contribution to local development at the municipal level of Kakanj; its customer-centric business orientation; and knowledge-based business operation. The mine bases its current success and future development on continued improvement of business processes, workplace safety and environmental protection. As mentioned before, the implementation of an appropriate information system may help the Kakanj Coal Mine in achieving its desired outcomes. Therefore, the following case study will attempt to gain an insight into the mine’s information system implementation by responding to a series of “how” and “why” questions mentioned in the introductory section. Research Design A descriptive case study approach was adopted for our investigation in order to gain a deeper understanding of the mine’s information system implementation. Data were collected from multiple sources including documentation, interviews and survey questionnaires. Since different data sources exhibit different strengths and weaknesses, multiple sources of evidence are recommended to enable triangulation and increase research validity (Yin 1994). The basic information about the research context was obtained from the mine’s website (http://www.rmukakanj.ba) and from the book entitled Hronika 100 (RMU Kakanj, 2006). After that, an interview was conducted by researchers with two information systems professionals employed by the mine to operate and maintain the systems and the underlying information and communication technology. 2 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo This was followed by an interview with two employees from the accounting department and one employee from the finance department in order to analyses these users’ point of view regarding the quality and usefulness of the mine’s information system. A more extensive survey of a wider pool of users is currently under way. Finally, another interview is planned after the survey with the mine managers to address any current concerns and future plans. Following Neuman’s (2011) recommendations, a qualitative analysis of interview data was performed on the basis of descriptions provided of the characteristics of information systems implementation in question. The main findings are reported in the next section. These findings are organized around the four research questions of interest. Research Findings How does the mine’s information system support organizational business processes? The answer to the first research question was obtained from the interviews conducted with two staff members from the information systems support centre. With respect to information and communication infrastructure (ICT), the respondents provided the researchers with a block scheme of the mine have integrated ICT system. This scheme is presented in Figure 1. The figure shows various locations where and how different ICT components are installed and connected in an integrated networked system. Two servers (HPML350 and IBM236) are used for the database (ORACLE) and applications. A mix of cable and wireless links are provided as communication channels. They are presented in full and dotted lines respectively. Figure 1: Block scheme of ICT infrastructure at Kakanj Coal Mine With respect to applications, the two interviewed respondents provided the researchers with a list of modules and sub-modules of POINT 2000, a key information system implemented to support the mine business activities. This list is provided in Table 1. 3 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo POINT 2000 system is purpose-developed and maintained by a third party. In addition, a series of internally built systems are provided to accommodate specific needs where required. Table 1: List of POINT 2000 modules with usage indicators Main modules of POINT 2000 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Metadata Accounting and finance Commerce – procurement and sales Management reporting Assets management Human resources Administrator Usage Indicator yes yes no no yes yes yes Do employees use this system and for what purposes? The answer to the second research question was also obtained from the interview with two staff members from the information systems support center. The researchers have been informed that a total of 73 users have access to POINT 2000. Table 1 shows that five out of seven main modules of POINT 2000 are in use, while two (commerce-procurement and sales; management reporting) are not in use. Table 1 also reveals that the used modules support the majority of secondary activities (i.e. accounting, finance, human resources, ICT) in the mine’s value chain. However, separate systems have been implemented to support the mine’s primary activities. For example, specific interest, revenue and price calculations for procurement and sales activities are supported by internally developed spreadsheet (EXCEL) applications. Similarly, separate spreadsheet applications are used for dealing with damages (injuries and material) as well as land expropriation and other real estate issues. In production, SCADA is implemented for the miners’ safety management purposes. Given the 1965 mining disaster (RMU Kakanj, 2006), safety is considered of utmost importance. In contrast, the informatization of warehousing is currently excluded from the mine’s consideration. How satisfied are users with their system, service and information it provides? To obtain a full answer to this research question, a survey of users is undertaken across the mine’s work units. While survey data collection is still under way, probing interviews were conducted with two employees from the accounting department and one from the finance department. Their opinions are reported here. Two accounting employees who are POINT 2000 users stated the following: “The system is reliable and fast”; “I get all the information that I need”; “The system offers more functional support than I currently need”; “I am very satisfied with the system”. 4 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo A finance employee who is the user of an internally developed spreadsheet application declared the following: “I use a purpose-built spreadsheet program to deal with material and damages from injuries, as well as land expropriation matters”; “I have to use a separate application because POINT 2000 provides only partial support for the mine’s financial activities”. Why are some aspects (if any) of the implemented system not in use? The initial answer to this research question was obtained from the interview with two staff members from the information systems support centre. However, another interview is planned with the mine managers in order to get a better understanding of the issue. For now, we turn our attention to Table 1 that shows two modules of the POINT 2000 system which are not in use. With respect to the commerce module (sub-modules of procurement and sales) the respondents pointed out that the system lacks proper support for the specific mine’s needs. One of the respondents also remarked that “Alternative programs made internally are used instead”. With respect to the “management reporting” module, the respondents could not understand the reasons for not using it. One of them commented that “It is up to managers to use or not”. At the same time, the same respondent explained that the module offers valuable information that can help in cost reduction and better planning. An interview with the mine managers may offer better insights into potential reasons for their rejection. An interesting remark was made by one of the interviewed IS professionals regarding the informatisation of warehousing: “Employees in the mine’s warehouses are former miners, often injured ones and with little education. If this activity is automated, these people will lose their jobs”. Since solidarity represents an important characteristic of the mine’s culture, this issue needs careful consideration. The planned integration of the mine’s information system within the wider SAP supported energy system by the mine’s parent organization “Elektroprivreda” may address this problem within the next two years. It may also attract the mine managers to the highly sophisticated business intelligence and business analytics solutions offered by SAP for managerial decision making support. Conclusions The main goal of the case study reported in this paper was to examine various aspects of the information system implementation in the Kakanj Coal Mine, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The main study results provide an insight into the nature, level and success of the implemented system from the IS professional-staff and end-user perspectives. These results also point to several areas that require further consideration and improvement. An encouraging finding is the future plan to integrate the mine’s system into a wider SAP supported energy information system. Future research is recommended in order to provide guidance for smoother transition and further enhancement. References 5 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Carter, A. W. (2006), Application of Geographical Information System in Underground Coal Mine to assist Operational Management, dissertation, University of Southern Queensland, Faculty of Engineering and Surveying, Australia Minfo Technologies (2011), Mining Information System: Solution Overview, http://www.minfo-tech.com/MiningInformationSystem.shtml, accessed 13 May 2013. Neuman, W. L. (2011), Social Research Methods: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches, 7th ed., Pearson Education, Inc. Porter, I, Baafi, E and Stace, R. (2011), Development of a Web-based Underground Coal Mining Information Management System, in Proceedings of 11th Underground Coal Operators' Conference, University of Wollongong & the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 10-11 February 2011, 385-389. Porter, M. (1985), Competitive advantage: creating and sustaining superior performance, The Free Press, New York. RMU Kakanj (2006), Rudnik mrkog uglja Kakanj: Hronika 100, Dom Stampe, Zenica. Yang l. and Song M. (2010), Coal Mine Safety Evaluation with V-Fold Cross-Validation and BP Neural Network, Journal of Computers, Vol 5, No. 9, pp. 1364-1371. Yin, R. (1994), Case study research: Design and methods, SagePublications, Thousand Oaks, CA. 6 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1656 Title A name given to the resource The Implementation of Information System in Coal Mine Kakanj Author Author GORALIJA, Haris HANDZIC, Meliha Abstract A summary of the resource. Safety management is one of the most important tasks in the coal mining sector. It is argued that an appropriate information system that monitors safety information can improve the coal mine safety management and reduce the occurrences of disasters. Therefore, the primary aim of this paper is to study the implementation and impact of a specific information system implemented in the Coal Mine Kakanj, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The focus of the study was on examining employees’ satisfaction with their implemented information system. Data were collected through interviews of employees who were system users. Their collected responses were analyzed using qualitative methods. The analyses performed revealed some interesting results. Their implications for the coal mine safety management were discussed and several plausible directions for future research are recommended. Keywords: Information System, Kakanj, Bosnia And Herzegovina, Coal Mine Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/1ae997351e1efc091fc2426c69195b9c.pdf 9536fab59474629ed09ce657d39a3170 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Importance of Export Market Diversification Strategy on the Overcoming Economic Crises: The Case of Turkey Mustafa Göktürk Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey mgokturk@mku.edu.tr Tunay Bostan Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey tbostan@mku.edu.tr Cemil Serhat Akın Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey csakin@mku.edu.tr Today, importance of export is increasing at providing and sustaining growth in developing countries. Because of their macro-economic instability and fragility developing countries face to crisis and affected by global economic crisis more than developed countries. At the end of 2007 in USA, problems in returning long-term housing loans created mortgage crisis in financial markets. Crisis spread to all of the markets and return to economic crisis. Leaping of crisis to developed countries which are economically locomotive of global economy caused crisis spreading and deeping world-wide. The average growth rate of global economy was 5% before the crisis. This rate declined to 3% after crisis (IMF). The crisis affected developing countries by exports. The economic crisis deeply existing in EU countries which are traditionally Turkey Republic’s markets decreasing the share of Turkey to EU exports in the total amount of Turkey exports. The share of Turkey-EU exports was 55% of Turkey’s total export before the global crisis from 1997 to 2008. After the crisis this figure declined 23% in 2009 when the crisis effect was deepest (DTM). Expectation of the effects of the economic crisis will continue, especially in the EU countries resulted Turkey implementing market diversification strategy in foreign trade. In accordance with the strategy; Turkey performed a group of activities and invested (liaison offices, trade shows, incentives) to rise export focused group of countries especially North Africa and the Near and Middle East country groups. 213 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo This paper extends to Turkey’s total export amount to different country groups and rates from 1997 to 2008 accepted as the pre-crisis and from 2010 to 2012 post-crisis period. According to this research the share of Turkey-EU export decreased 11% and became 44%. After implementing market diversification strategy Turkey-MENA export rate increased 10% and became from 13% to 23% (TUİK). We found that the Turkey’s market diversification strategies succeed and Turkey’s export volume increased. Because of reason Turkey is the one of the countries least affected by global economic crisis and recent global economic uncertainty and recovering the economy fast. Economy of Turkey is the fastest growing economy in Europe. The average growing rate of Turkish Economy is 5,4% from 2002 to 2011. Turkey's economy expanded 8.5% in 2011 (TUİK). The aim of this study is to show negative effects of economic crisis on growth of economy by the channel of export and to test alternative export policies (market diversification strategy) on recovering crisis. Keywords: Economic Crises, Export, Economic Growth, Market Turkey Economy, Diversification. 214 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b63f38f7fbdf88b531327232b29befd3.docx ee26d6d9783aa1136fb91b806034d0c2 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c21f0fa4230ea357c5e28dfa1e3bcee3.pdf d9b5e6918808e3211a3fbde18a2ecceb PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Importance of Export Market Diversification Strategy on the Overcoming Economic Crises: The Case of Turkey Mustafa Göktürk Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey mgokturk@mku.edu.tr Tunay Bostan Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey tbostan@mku.edu.tr Cemil Serhat Akın Mustafa Kemal University, Hatay, Turkey csakin@mku.edu.tr Abstract Today, importance of export is increasing at providing and sustaining growth in developing countries. Because of their macro-economic instability and fragility developing countries face to crisis and affected by global economic crisis more than developed countries. At the end of 2007 in USA, problems in returning long-term housing loans created mortgage crisis in financial markets. Crisis spread to all of the markets and return to economic crisis. Leaping of crisis to developed countries which are economically locomotive of global economy caused crisis spreading and deeding world-wide. The average growth rate of global economy was 5% before the crisis. This rate declined to 3% after crisis (IMF). The crisis affected developing countries by exports. The economic crisis deeply existing in EU countries which are traditionally Turkey Republic’s markets decreasing the share of Turkey to EU exports in the total amount of Turkey exports. The share of Turkey-EU exports was 55% of Turkey’s total export before the global crisis from 1997 to 2008. After the crisis this figure declined 23% in 2009 when the crisis effect was deepest (DTM). Expectation of the effects of the economic crisis will continue, especially in the EU countries resulted Turkey implementing market diversification strategy in foreign trade. In accordance with the strategy; Turkey performed a group of activities and invested (liaison offices, trade shows, incentives) to rise export focused group of countries especially North Africa and the Near and Middle East country groups. This paper extends to Turkey’s total export amount to different country groups and rates from 1997 to 2008 accepted as the pre-crisis and from 2010 to 2012 post-crisis period. According to this research the share of Turkey-EU export decreased 11% and became 44%. After implementing market diversification strategy TurkeyMENA export rate increased 10% and became from 13% to 23% (TUİK). We found that the Turkey’s market diversification strategies succeed and Turkey’s export volume increased. Because of reason Turkey is the one of the countries least affected by global economic crisis and recent global economic uncertainty and recovering the economy fast. Economy of Turkey is the fastest growing economy in Europe. The average growing rate of Turkish Economy is 5,4% from 2002 to 2011. Turkey's economy expanded 8.5% in 2011 (TUİK). 1 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The aim of this study is to show negative effects of economic crisis on growth of economy by the channel of export and to test alternative export policies (market diversification strategy) on recovering crisis. Keywords: economic crises; export; economic growth; market diversification; Turkey economy Introduction For developing countries which creating income with trade of commodities, diversifying exports has long been a policy objective. Today importance of export is increasing at providing and sustaining growth in developing countries. Because of their macro-economic instability and fragility face to crisis and affected by global economic crisis more than developed countries. At the end of 2007 in USA, problems in returning long-term housing loans created mortgage crisis in financial markets. Crisis spread to all of the markets and return to economic crisis. Leaping of crisis to developed countries which are economically locomotive of global economy caused crisis spreading and deepening world-wide. The outlook of world economy and international trade are unstable. The trade flows are declining and trade shocks are occurring. In this economic outlook for creating income international trade is essential. 2008-2009 global crises and the aftermath of the crisis European debt crisis and the Arab Spring developments will how affect Turkey's economy through the medium and long term is an important research area. Focusing on the new markets and diversification resulted increased the Turkey’s export to Middle East and North Africa. This situation compensate for depression of export to EU countries. After we put the problem in this way it is necessary that determinate the current situation by analyzing Turkish export structure with market divisions and goods. In this study firstly we review export diversification, trade and economic growth notions. Secondly we aim that to show geographical and sectorial structure of Turkey’s export for 2000-2012 periods. We analyze that importance of Turkey’s target market and sectorial development of export made to target markets by share of geographical divisions and goods on the total export. Lastly we analyze Turkey’s export performance with diversification of geographical divisions and goods. Export Diversification, International Trade, and Economic Growth Export growth, export diversification can be positively associated with economic growth. Diversity in exports can reduce income volatility for countries with large populations living in poverty and reduce vulnerability to sharp declines in the terms-of trade. Expanding international trade has been an important avenue for growth in many developing countries. And export diversification is seen by many as an important channel through which trade fuels economic growth: by facilitating improvements in productivity, by capturing economies of scale, and by curbing volatility (Newfarmer, et al, 2009). Export diversification, growth, and volatility and its impact on economic growth is as old as economic development literature. But the literature does not come up with a consistent 2 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo definition of export diversification. A general definition of diversification of exports is chancing the country's current product mix or changing in the number of export markets. There are three dimensions of diversification: breaking into new geoFigure markets, improving the quality of existing exports, increasing services exports. A more useful definition is originated from the way diversification is measured. It is preferred to use the concentration indices to measure the extent to which country’s export is diversified. The concentration indices measure whether majority of country’s export earnings comes from small range of export products (indication of export concentration) or the source of export earnings are more evenly spread across a given range of export goods (indication of export diversification). Export can grow at the intensive (the growth in the value of existing products) and extensive margin (the increase in the number of export lines). Accordingly, export diversification can be captured along the margins: a more evenly spread of the export basket is an indication of diversification at the intensive margin, while the greater number of export lines indicate diversification at the extensive margin (Cadot et al., 2009). The biggest differentiation is made between horizontal and vertical diversification. Horizontal diversification entails alterations or balance of the export mix – more of an existing commodity is being produced to meet increased export demand for this commodity. Vertical diversification involves contriving further use for existing products by means of adding value or introducing new products for which the country had no prior export experience. Both dimensions are reflected in above index. In addition, export diversification can take place by marketing products to new destinations or increasing the export volume in previously under-served markets. All of forms and dimensions are associated with economic gains. While definition of intensive margin is similar in majority of studies, different authors define extensive margin differently. In our definition, extensive margin is, as in Melitz (2003), new product margin. Besides, the literature argue that diversification of exports on the extensive margin could be achieved along geographical dimension (when a product, either the existing or a new one, is exported to new markets) and along quality dimension (by improving the quality of existing products). Such measures of geographical diversification at the extensive margin can be found in Breton and Newfarmer (2007), Amurgo-Pacheco and Pierola (2007) and some others. It is not uncommon in empirical studies that export diversification is identified as extensive margin. Diversification on the intensive margin of export growth is not investigated much in the literature. In that sense, our focus on factors that affects diversification at the intensive margin is the novelty in this literature. In order to assess the extent of export diversification, diversification-related empirical literature usually takes concentration measures from the literature on industrial organization and inequality measures from the income inequality literature. The concentration and inequality indices (Herfindhal, Gini and Theil indices in particular) seem to be the most widely used measures of export diversification. Concentration indices measure changes in a country’s export structure, defined at any level of aggregation. However, the measure is better if the data are at a greater level of disaggregation (Cadot et al., 2009). Indices are cumulative or summary measures of concentration as they explain 3 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo the entire size distribution of exports and allow the value of the index to be influenced by changes in every part of the distribution Export diversification aims at moving away from a limited basket of exports in order to mitigate economic and political risks of dependence upon a few primary commodity exports. When export is concentrated in a few primary commodities, there can be serious economic and political risks. Economic risks include: in the short term, volatility and instability in foreign exchange earning which have adverse macroeconomic effects (on growth, employment, investment planning, import and export capacity, foreign exchange cash flow, inflation, capital flight and undersupply of investments by risk averse investors, debt repayment); and in the long term, secular and unpredictable declining terms of trade trends which exacerbate short run effects. Political risks include worsened governance and risk of civil war in fragile states; as recent research (Collier, 2002) shows that primary commodity dependence is associated with various dimensions of poor governance; and the risk of conflict is strongly related to the level and growth of income, as well as its structure as reflected in the dependence upon a few primary commodity exports. Heavy dependence on a small number of primary commodity products exposes a country to the negative effects of unfavorable characteristics of world demand and negative supply side features of these primary products. On the demand side, the low income elasticity of world demand of primary commodities can lead to falling export revenues which can be exacerbated by historically downward trends in primary commodities relative to manufactures. Although, according to Cashin and Mc. Dermott (2002), real commodity prices have declined by about 1% per year over the last 140 years, volatility and persistence of commodity price shocks can have more dramatic consequences than the long term downward trend of commodity prices. On the supply side, the combined effect of lower skills and technology content of commodity production and its negligible backward and forward linkages with the rest of the economy usually lead to negative growth spillovers (Samen, 2010). A diversified portfolio could help minimize volatility in export earnings and boost overall growth by replacing primary commodities with positive price trends products and adding value through additional processing or marketing. As traditional exports are particularly vulnerable to exogenous shocks and face limited demand due to their low income elasticity and declining terms of trade, diversifying away from traditional exports is expected to raise growth rates and lower their variability. Hence, export diversification can also aim at improving backward and forward linkages to domestic inputs and services, and expanding opportunities for export in existing or new markets. Reducing dependence upon one or a limited number of geoFigureal destinations or origins can also be a major objective for export diversification (Samen, 2010). As an example, Değer (2010) found a statistically significant relationship between the of Turkey's economy data for the period 1980-2006 with long-term economic growth and export diversification. He demonstrated that manufactured goods weighted export structure and export goods diversification both have a positive effects on Turkey’s economic growth. Similarly, Aldan et al (2012) point out that Turkey has diversified her exports by sector as well as by markets in 2003-2011 period. They gave a detailed analysis of export diversification by sectors within markets and by markets for different sectors. The results suggest that market diversification has been increased in main export sectors such as machinery and transportation, iron and steel, wearing apparels and textiles. Similarly, 4 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo product diversification has been increased in main export markets such as EU, Middle East and North America. These findings indicate that Turkish exports have gained strength against external shocks observed for particular sectors and/or markets. Structural Change in Exports and Export Diversification: A Look at TURKEY over the Period 2003–2011 Turkey's ties with the global economy have increased rapidly after 2001economic crisis. The successful implementation of stabilization and structural reform program and the positive situation in the world economy contributed to the emergence of this table. Turkey’s import volume annual average increase rate come from 11 percent in the 19912000 periods to 31 percent in the 2002-2008 periods. After 2001 not only the volume of imports the volume of export has grown rapidly. Export volume in the period 2002-2007 average annual growth rate increased to 30 percent from 8 percent in the 1991-2000 periods. (Acar, 2009) According to Figure 1; In 2001, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 5.7% compared to the previous period, Turkey's economy, the first quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2008, the average term of 6.5% and a growth process which lasted a full 27 quarters into a row. With the 2001 crisis in the first place companies have focused to foreign markets as a result of the contraction in domestic demand and the depreciation of the Turkish Liras. Between from 2001 crisis to the 2008 crisis (2002 - 2007 period and the first two quarters of 2008), the importance of foreign trade in economy increase with the worl markets demand increase and increasing competition in the domestic market with the disinflation process (Aysan/Hacıhasanoğlu 2007; Aydın et. al., 2007; Yükseler/Türkan, 2008). Figure 1: Average Annual Real GDP Growth (%) 2002-2011 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2012, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) Together with stable economic growth, Turkey has also reined in its public finances; the EU-defined general government nominal debt stock fell to 39.4 percent from 74 percent in a period of nine years between 2002 and 2011. Hence, Turkey has been meeting the “60 percent EU Maastricht criteria” for public debt stock since 2004. Similarly, during 20025 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo 2011, the budget deficit decreased from more than 10 percent to less than 3 percent, which is one of the EU Maastricht criteria for the budget balance. (Turkey Economy Ministry, 2013) As the GDP levels more than tripled to USD 772 billion in 2011, up from USD 231 billion in 2002, GDP per capita soared to USD 10,444, up from USD 3,500 in the given period. The visible improvements in the Turkish economy have also boosted foreign trade, while exports reached USD 135 billion by the end of 2011, up from USD 36 billion in 2002. Similarly, tourism revenues, which were around USD 8.5 billion in 2002, exceeded USD 23 billion in 2011 (Turkey Economy Ministry, 2013). Significant improvements in such a short period of time have registered Turkey on the world economic scale as an exceptional emerging economy, the 16th largest economy in the world and the 5th largest economy when compared with the EU countries, according to GDP figures (at PPP) in 2011. While many economies have been unable to recover from the recent global financial recession, the Turkish economy expanded by 9.2 percent in 2010, and 8.5 percent in 2011, thus standing out as the fastest growing economy in Europe, and one of the fastest growing economies in the world (Figure 2). The global financial crisis of 2008, has lead Turkey's foreign trade partners to economic depression. As a general fact through foreign trade channel global crisis can be penetrate in Turkey. The initial effects of the global financial crisis, which is Turkey's most important trading partner in the EU countries has rapidly, become visible. Growth rates of Turkey's most important trading partners after 2008 were well below the growth rates experienced between 2002 and 2007 (Figure 2). Figure 2: GDP Growth (%) 2005-2014 Source: Eurostat Note: Unit: Percentage change on previous period (PCH_PRE) Indicator: Gross Domestic product at market prices We see that in the period of 2001-2012 there is rapid increase in the total export amounts of Turkey. The break of this time series is in 2009. From 2001 to 2008 turkey total export raised 4,2 times. The highest growth rate (33,1) was in 2004. After 2008 there was a global 6 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo crisis and that cause decrease in foreign trade flows. In 2009 total export growth change rate decrease from 23,1 to minus 22 percent. From 2010 Turkey implied export market diversification. And Turkey recovered the total export, 2012 figure was 152 536 653 000 (US Dollars) (Figure 3; Figure 4) Figure 3: Turkey’s Total Export Source: TUİK, 2013 Figure 4: Turkey’s Total Export Growth Source: TUİK, 2013 EU has the biggest share on the Turkey’s Export. After the 2008 global crisis the share of EU on Turkey’s export decrease but EU still the important export partner of Turkey. 2008 global crisis effected all partners of Turkey especially export to North America decreased 50% percent after crisis (TUİK, 2013). After the Turkey changed export policy, the share of exports to Middle Eastern countries began to increase again, the effects of the global financial crisis started to be felt in 2008 has reached remarkable proportions. North Africa and Mena country groups has relatively low share on the Turkey’s Export but after crises they became more important for Turkey (Figure 6, Figure 7, and Figure 8). Turkey's export volume growth rate is analyzed on a regional basis wesee that cause of the decrease in export growth is Economic recession in the EU countries. The global financial crisis hit the EU countries with the October 2008-January 2009 period, the growth rate of 7 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Turkey’s exports to the EU countries, began to decline rapidly. Deterioration in export performance is not limited with EU countries. In addition, Turkey's exports to other European countries caught in the growth rate of 37 per cent pre-crisis, has declined by -1 percent after crisis Turkey can increase export to only North African countries (Table 1; Figure 6) Turkey exports to EU countries mainly textile, clothes, machinery and transporting vehicles. In Turkey's exports to this region in 2003 the share of machinery and transporting vehicles has equal shares. After 2008 this equilibrium seems to have changed decisively in favor of machinery and transporting vehicles. New countries such as China and India got more importance in textile and clothing sector, Turkey export rates in these sectors decreasing parallel. The important point is the most serious deterioration is in the automotive and communication equipment sectors which require specialty in manufacturing of consumer goods. Turkey has an important role in these sectors global value chains. İt is possible that contraction in the production of these sectors value chain would be serious repercussions for all global value chain. Based on these data Turkey’s export getting more intense in North Africa and Europen countries(nonmembers of EU). We can neglect the raise of export to Europen countries(nonmembers of EU) in 2008-2009 periods. After the rapid change in the year 2004, there nothing change first 10 sector shares but first 5 sector shares decrease little. When we study both of first 5 sector shares and first 10 sector shares, export intensive in North America market is regressing seriously (Figure 5). Figure 5: Sectorial and geographical distribution of Turkey's Export Source: (Aldan et.al. 2012); (TUİK) 8 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Figure 6: Turkey’s Total Export to EU (27) Countries Source: (TUİK, 2013) Figure 7: Turkey’s Total Export to Africa Source: (TUİK, 2013) Figure 8: Turkey’s Total Export to Middle and Near East Source: (TUİK, 2013) 9 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 1: Turkey’s Total Export by Country Groups 2000 TOTAL EXPORT A- EU COUNTRİES (27) B- FREE TRADE ZONES C- OTHER COUNTRİES 1- Europe Countries (Non EU members) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 27.775 31.334 36.059 47.253 63.167 73.476 85.535 107.272 132.027 102.143 113.883 134.907 152.561 15.664 17.546 20.415 27.394 36.581 41.365 47.935 60.399 63.390 46.977 52.685 62.347 59.241 2.967 2.943 3.008 1.957 2.084 2.545 2.295 11.216 12.854 14.206 17.931 24.022 29.137 34.633 43.930 65.622 53.208 59.114 70.015 91.025 1.855 2.094 2.607 3.362 4.507 5.855 7.962 10.843 15.678 11.359 11.373 12.976 14.373 2- Africa 1.373 1.521 1.697 2.131 2.968 3.631 4.566 5.976 9.063 10.180 9.283 10.334 13.361 North Africa Other Afrika Countries 1.087 1.150 1.267 1.577 2.203 2.544 3.097 4.030 5.850 7.445 7.025 6.701 9.448 285 371 430 554 765 1.087 1.469 1.947 3.212 2.735 2.258 3.633 3.913 3- AMERİCA 3.596 3.685 3.914 4.269 5.733 5.960 6.328 5.603 6.532 4.836 6.078 7.926 9.636 South Amerika Middle America 3.309 3.297 3.596 3.973 5.207 5.276 5.439 4.541 4.802 3.561 4.242 5.459 6.673 167 201 197 166 334 411 548 549 829 597 598 626 770 South America 120 186 121 131 193 274 341 514 901 678 1.237 1.840 2.193 4- ASİA Middle ve Near East Other Asian Countries 5AVUSTRALİA and NEW ZELAND 6- Other Countries 3.871 4.592 5.230 7.813 10.465 13.213 15.257 20.309 32.505 25.912 31.876 38.134 53.059 2.573 3.261 3.440 5.465 7.921 10.184 11.316 15.081 25.430 19.208 23.295 27.935 42.477 1.298 1.331 1.790 2.348 2.544 3.029 3.942 5.227 7.074 6.704 8.581 10.199 10.582 135 98 122 158 264 271 327 343 435 360 403 481 490 385 864 637 197 84 208 192 857 1.410 561 102 164 105 895 934 1.438 1.928 2.564 2.973 Source: TUİK 2013 Conclusion In this study firstly we review export diversification, trade and economic growth notions. Secondly we aim that to show geographical and sectorial structure of Turkey’s export for 2000-2012 periods. We analyze that importance of Turkey’s target market and sectorial development of export made to target markets by share of geographical divisions and goods on the total export. Lastly we analyze Turkey’s export performance with diversification of geographical divisions and goods. First, we found that export to EU countries which are Turkey’s traditional export markets, decreasing due to lack of demand. Turkey focused on historically and geographically near countries North Africa and MENA countries. Turkey total export is growing after this diversification policy. But we use average and total amounts of relatively short period (2000-2012) our data supports the main idea of “diversification of export markets policy helps to cope with economic crises”. 10 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo References Acar, O. (2009).Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret ve Dış Ticaretin Finansmanı Durum Değerlendirmesi, TEPAV Raporu, Aldan A., Aydın M.F., Çulha O.Y., Sunel E., (2012). İhracatta Bölgesel ve Sektörel Çeşitlenme, TC Merkez Bankası Sayı: 2012-18 Amurgo-Pacheco, A. and Pierola, M.D. (2007). Patterns of Export Diversification in Developing Countries: Intensive and Extensive Margins. Economics Section, The Graduate Aydın F., Saygılı H., Saygılı M., (2007). Empirical Analysis of Structural Change in Turkish Exports, Research and Monetary Policy Department Working Paper (No: 07/08) (Ankara: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey). Aysan A.F., Hacıhasanoğlu Y.S., (2007). Investigation on the determinants of Turkish Export-Boom in 2000s, The Journal of International Trade and Diplomacy, 1/2: 159- 202. Brenton, P., and Newfarmer, R. (2007). Watching More than the Discovery Channel: Export Cycles and Diversification in Development Unpublished. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Cadot, O., Carrère , C., Strauss-Kahn V. (2009). Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump?. Review of Economics Retrieved April 25 2013, from http://hal.archivesouvertes.fr/docs/00/55/69/99/PDF/2007.24.pdf Collier, P. (2002). Primary Commodity Dependence and Africa’s Future,World Bank Retrieved April 25 2013, from http://siteresources.worldbank.org/D EC/Resources/84797-1251813753820/6415739-1251814045642/Collierfull.pdfInstitute of International Studies. HEI Working Papers 20-2007. Melitz, M. J. (2003). The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Developing Countries: Intensive and Extensive Margins. Economics Section, The Graduate Export Cycles and Diversification in Development. Unpublished. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Newfarmer Richard , Shaw William, Walkenhorst Peter. (2009).”Breaking into new markets : emerging lessons for export diversification “World Bank, Washington, D.C. SAMEN S., (2010). Export development, diversification, and competitiveness: how some developing countries got it right. Unpublished. World Bank. (P;3-4) Turkey Economy Ministry Retrieved April 25, (2013).Fromhttp://www.invest.gov.tr/enus/turkey/factsandfigures/pages/economy.aspx Yükseler Z., Türkan E., (2008). Türkiye’nin Üretim ve Dış Ticaret Yapısında Dönüşüm (İstanbul:Türk Sanayicileri ve İşadamları Derneği (TÜSİAD) Yayını). 11 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1658 Title A name given to the resource The Importance of Export Market Diversification Strategy on the Overcoming Economic Crises: The Case of Turkey Author Author GOKTURK, Mustafa BOSTAN, Tunay SERHAT AKIN, Cemil Abstract A summary of the resource. Today, importance of export is increasing at providing and sustaining growth in developing countries. Because of their macro-economic instability and fragility developing countries face to crisis and affected by global economic crisis more than developed countries. At the end of 2007 in USA, problems in returning long-term housing loans created mortgage crisis in financial markets. Crisis spread to all of the markets and return to economic crisis. Leaping of crisis to developed countries which are economically locomotive of global economy caused crisis spreading and deeping world-wide. The average growth rate of global economy was 5% before the crisis. This rate declined to 3% after crisis (IMF). The crisis affected developing countries by exports. The economic crisis deeply existing in EU countries which are traditionally Turkey Republic’s markets decreasing the share of Turkey to EU exports in the total amount of Turkey exports. The share of Turkey-EU exports was 55% of Turkey’s total export before the global crisis from 1997 to 2008. After the crisis this figure declined 23% in 2009 when the crisis effect was deepest (DTM). Expectation of the effects of the economic crisis will continue, especially in the EU countries resulted Turkey implementing market diversification strategy in foreign trade. In accordance with the strategy; Turkey performed a group of activities and invested (liaison offices, trade shows, incentives) to rise export focused group of countries especially North Africa and the Near and Middle East country groups. This paper extends to Turkey’s total export amount to different country groups and rates from 1997 to 2008 accepted as the pre-crisis and from 2010 to 2012 post-crisis period. According to this research the share of Turkey-EU export decreased 11% and became 44%. After implementing market diversification strategy Turkey-MENA export rate increased 10% and became from 13% to 23% (TUİK). We found that the Turkey’s market diversification strategies succeed and Turkey’s export volume increased. Because of reason Turkey is the one of the countries least affected by global economic crisis and recent global economic uncertainty and recovering the economy fast. Economy of Turkey is the fastest growing economy in Europe. The average growing rate of Turkish Economy is 5,4% from 2002 to 2011. Turkey's economy expanded 8.5% in 2011 (TUİK). The aim of this study is to show negative effects of economic crisis on growth of economy by the channel of export and to test alternative export policies (market diversification strategy) on recovering crisis. Keywords: Economic Crises, Export, Economic Growth, Market Turkey Economy, Diversification. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/77c79e269d5f64a562973e30d05394c3.pdf 16a96f4fb8e13a63f28177c0567d47da PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo "Axis shift" as a Foreign Policy Concept and Reflectıon of this Concept on Turkish Press Mehmet Gökhan Genel Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey gokhan.genel@gmail.com In Turkey, the AK Party (Justice and Development Party) in conjunction with the coming to power, it is claimed by some quarters in the U.S.A. (United States of America) and EU (European Union), Turkey, especially based on Middle East policy in the last period, is wafting through the project of the European Union trying to hold on for more than 50 years and therefore the westernization process to other entities, especially towards to the Shanghai Quintet. This claim is also known as Axis Shift, brought about internal and external public debates. The purpose of this study, the above-mentioned claim, i.e., the axis Shift, is to investigate in what way is reflected in the Turkish press. In this context, the framework consists of titles such as, a shift of axis, axis shift in foreign policy, Turkey's EU integration process, Turkey-EU relations in the last period, field research. In this direction, in order to test the aforementioned claim, having different ideological stance and boss structure in Turkish press, like as Cumhuriyet Gazetesi, Zaman Gazetesi, Yeniçağ Gazetesi, Milliyet Gazetesi and Habertürk Gazetesi under the spotlight by taking 1 month it shall be subjected to discourse analysis of these newspapers opinion columnists. Keywords: Turkey and the EU, Axis Shift, Turkey Press, Shanghai Quintet, the Middle East. 197 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1588 Title A name given to the resource "Axis shift" as a Foreign Policy Concept and Reflectıon of this Concept on Turkish Press Author Author GOKHAN GENEL, Mehmet Abstract A summary of the resource. In Turkey, the AK Party (Justice and Development Party) in conjunction with the coming to power, it is claimed by some quarters in the U.S.A. (United States of America) and EU (European Union), Turkey, especially based on Middle East policy in the last period, is wafting through the project of the European Union trying to hold on for more than 50 years and therefore the westernization process to other entities, especially towards to the Shanghai Quintet. This claim is also known as Axis Shift, brought about internal and external public debates. The purpose of this study, the above-mentioned claim, i.e., the axis Shift, is to investigate in what way is reflected in the Turkish press. In this context, the framework consists of titles such as, a shift of axis, axis shift in foreign policy, Turkey's EU integration process, Turkey-EU relations in the last period, field research. In this direction, in order to test the aforementioned claim, having different ideological stance and boss structure in Turkish press, like as Cumhuriyet Gazetesi, Zaman Gazetesi, Yeniçağ Gazetesi, Milliyet Gazetesi and Habertürk Gazetesi under the spotlight by taking 1 month it shall be subjected to discourse analysis of these newspapers opinion columnists. Keywords: Turkey and the EU, Axis Shift, Turkey Press, Shanghai Quintet, the Middle East. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/4d3af54322f5f09ddc383ca9585d9ddd.pdf 2d59df0e01aab2c696aac364941cbc0a PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo How is Accounting Perceived in Cognitive Level? A Study Based On Metaphor Ahmet Gökgöz Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey ahmetgokgoz83@gmail.com Ahmet Selçuk Dizkirici Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey dizkirici@hotmail.com Metaphor is derivated from the word “metapherein” which is in Greek, besides it is occurred by the combining of the words “meta” and “pherein” meaning “to carry” and “to load” respectively (Arslan, 2008: 259). It is replacing a commonly used concept in place of an uncommonly used one to explain the second concept by means of the first one therefore metaphor is making a substitution (Uçma, 2010: 126). Metaphors include information transfer from a well-known field to a new and unknown one generally (Tsoukas, 1991). They are supposed as tools used to explain how the life, environment, events and objects are perceived by the people via different similitudes (Cerit, 2008: 694). The study is prepared to clarify the “accounting” perception of the students taken accounting courses in Community College or Business School in Yalova University by using metaphors. To this end, metaphor questionnaires including a single open-ended question are applied to 159 students. The results are subjected to content analysis and owing to the fact that 39 of the questionnaires could not create metaphors; the study evaluated on 120 questionnaires. Most common metaphors created by the students participated in the study are identified as mathematics, calculator, puzzle and jigsaw puzzle. Keywords: Metaphor, Accounting. 18 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d7ed056022e9ae6ef8e01d7449d35f51.docx b5f99b823b79ce3a864810069844050e https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/a9945f4a5a36a28ae132cc8dacadd10a.pdf 25d54aff7ec71f5301ccbddddc1ddde8 PDF Text Text International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo How is Accounting Perceived in Cognitive Level? A Study Based On Metaphor AhmetGökgöz Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey ahmetgokgoz83@gmail.com AhmetSelçukDizkirici Sakarya University, Sakarya, Turkey dizkirici@hotmail.com Abstract The study is prepared to clarify the accountingperception of the students taken basic accounting courses in Community College or Business School in Yalova University by using metaphors. To this end, metaphor questionnaires including a single openended question are applied to 195 students. The results are subjected to content analysis and owing to the fact that 75 of the questionnaires could not create metaphors; the study is evaluated on 120 questionnaires. According to the results of questionnaires 37 metaphors are constituted. The most common metaphors created by the students participated in the study are identified as mathematics, calculator, puzzle, scales and jigsaw puzzle. Reasons expressed for the metaphors reveal that accounting perception is related to 10 themes. The most comprehensive ones are the themes which meaning as “accounting is consisted of mathematical operations” and “going through the stages is essential toreach the result in accounting”. Key Words: Accounting, Metaphor, Cognitive Level. Introduction Metaphor is derivated from the word “metapherein” which is in Greek, occurred by the combining of the verbs “meta” and “pherein” meaning “to carry” and “to load” respectively (Arslan, 2008: 259).It is forming relationship with a word having another meaning by using similarities to explain a concept, word, term or event better (Aydın, 2004). Metaphor is replacing a commonly used concept in place of anuncommonly used one to explain the second concept by means of the first one therefore metaphor is making a substitution(Uçma, 2010: 126).They generally include information transfer from a wellknown field to a new and unknown one (Tsoukas, 1991).Metaphors are supposed as tools used to explain how the life, environment, events and objects are perceived by the people via different similitudes (Cerit, 2008: 694). If a concept, word, term or event is symbolized with another concept, word, term or event; that means metaphor is used. There may exist little similarity between two different objects but identifying one of them well facilitates us to understand the other better. As a sample; people saying “The heart works like a pump.”to explain the working of the heart, are using pump metaphor which is well known comparing to heart. The base of studies prepared related to metaphor in social sciences is consisted of“Contemporary Metaphor Theory” explained by Lakoff and Johnson (1980) in their publication named as “Metaphors: We with Live by”. While studies about metaphor were 13 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo only in literature science before 80s;as a concept metaphorbegan to exist in the center of interdisciplinary applicationsin cognition and communication studiesafterLakoff and Johnson’s study (Uçma, 2010: 124-126).The studies related to metaphor in accounting field have been existed recently as in the most of the other social sciences (Amernic and Craig, 2009; McGoun and others., 2007; Meyer, 1984; Walters-York, 1996;Walters-York, 2004). Metaphors are suggested to play an active role in the creation and transmission process of the meaning in accounting texts alsothey are suggested to be discussions group that make up the mentioned texts (Walters-York, 1996: 48-49). According to Walters-York (1996); metaphors improve fluency and strengthen the accounting texts also make the statements which can not be explained in any other way easier, to express in aesthetic, cognitive, and pragmatic levels. In this regard; many accounting terms as doubtful debts, accumulated depreciations, fixed/variable costs, liquid assets, fixed assets, equity, responsibility center, profit sharing and goodwill are samples for metaphor usage (Uysal, 2001: 57). Metaphors are means of perception (Arnett, 1999) and they expressa cognitive-way understanding (Lakoffve Johnson, 1980). Therefore; metaphors are benefited for perception survey about a statement, concept, event or anything else. There exist many studies to understand the perceptions of individiuals which are intended to determine many things like events, concepts, professions such as teachers, police, cinema, administration etc.by metaphors. But there has not been any similar study about accounting perception in Yalova province of Turkey thus it is targeted to identify the accounting perceptions of individuals by metaphors in the study. The Objective of the Study The objective of the study is to reveal how accounting is perceived in cognitive level by the students taken basic accounting courses in Community College or Business School via metaphors. The Methodology of the Study The study targeting to reveal the accountingperception of the students taken basic accounting courses in Community College or Business School in Yalova University by using metaphorsis applied to 195 students. In this respect; questionnaires including open ended questions which have been used in similar studies (Cerit, 2006; Kabadayı, 2008; Ocak&Gündüz, 2006; Ünal, Yıldırım&Çelik, 2010; Sarı, 2010) are benefited to allow the source group to express their perceptions about accounting by metaphors. It is requested from the students to complete the sentence expressed as “Accounting resembles to ............... because ............” in the questionnaire. In addition to the questions related to demography such as gender, education and age;metaphors as any existence tangible or intangible, living or unliving or anything else is acquired from the source group via the sentence to complete mentioned above while obtaining data.Consequently;data necessity is gathered from the students participated in the study. Analysis of the Data The metaphors used by the participants are subjected to content analysis and because of the fact that 75 of the questionnaires could not create current ones; the rest (120 14 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo questionnaires) are evaluated. The names of metaphors created for accounting and their reasons are computerized to obtain primary data afterwards they are read and evaluated to obtain themes to gather similar metaphors. Therefore primary data are organized and patterns of the data are tried to be defined. Findings The data about demographic characteristics of the participants are shown in Table 1. Table 1: Demographic Characteristics of the Participants Frequency Characteristics Percent (%) (f) Male 52 43,33 Gender Female 68 56,67 Undergraduate 55 45,83 Education Associate Degree Program 65 54,17 17-20 67 55,83 21-23 42 35,00 Age 24-26 7 5,83 27-29 2 1,67 30-? 2 1,67 Total 120 100,00 37 metaphors are created by 120 questionnaires evaluated. The most common ones are observed as; mathematics metaphor by 26 students, calculator (10), puzzle (9), scales (8), jigsaw puzzle (7), life (6) respectively. The acquired data about the metaphors created are shown in Table 2. Metaphor Mathematics Calculator Puzzle Scales Jigsaw Puzzle Life Computer Tree Building Order (f) 26 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 Table 2: Metaphors Created by Participants Metaphor (f) Metaphor (f) Baby 2 Art 2 Flywheel 2 Sudoku 2 Flowers 2 Research 1 Balance 2 Honey 1 Dominoes 2 Lace 1 Memory Card 2 Equation 1 Photo 2 Eyeglasses 1 Maze 2 Carpet 1 Machine 2 Light 1 Metaphor Woman Camera Fabric Season Spider Web Money Salad Chain Octopus (f) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 37 metaphors created by participants are subjected to content analysis so theyare grouped in 10 themes due to the reasons expressed by the students. The seperation of the mentioned themes including the metaphors created by participants (n=120) is shown in Table 3. 15 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 3: Themes Including the Metaphors About Accounting Frequency Percent Themes Metaphors (f) (%) Accounting is a 7 5,8 Computer (5), Memory Card (2) recording activity. Accounting is consisted of 26 21,7 Mathematics (26) mathematical transactions. There exist balance and order in 13 10,8 Balance (2), Order (3), Scales (8) accounting. Accounting Photo (2), Eyeglasses (1), Light (1), displays the status 5 4,2 Camera (1) of the business. Accounting is Tree (5), Octopus (1), Flywheel (2), consisted of 13 10,8 Dominoes (2), Spider Web (1), complex and related Salad (1), Chain (1) transactions. Passing through the Research (1), Building (3), Puzzle stages is required to (9), Lace (1), Equation (1), Carpet 29 24,2 achieve the result in (1), Maze (2), Art (2), Sudoku (2), accounting,. Jigsaw Puzzle (7) Accounting requires Honey (1), Baby (2), Flowers (2), 8 6,7 hard working. Woman (1), Machine (2) Accounting is consisted of computation 16 13,3 Life (6), Calculator (10) transactions continuously. Accounting is the repetition of the 2 1,7 Fabric (1), Season (1) same transactions. Accounting means 1 0,8 Money (1) money. As it is seen from Table 3; the most common theme acquired from the metaphors created by the students is “passing through the stages is required to achieve the result in accounting” (f:29, % 24,2). The other themes are respectively ranked as; “accounting is consisted of mathematical transactions” (f:26, % 21,7), “accounting is consisted of computation transactions continuously” (f:16, % 13,3),“accounting is consisted of complex and related transactions” (f:13, % 10,8), “there exist balance and order in accounting” (f:13, % 10,8), “accounting requires hard working.” (f:8, % 6,7) and “accounting is a recording activity.” (f:7, % 5,8). Conclusion The study is prepared to reveal the accountingperception of the students taken basic accounting courses in Community College or Business School in Yalova University by using metaphors.Thus; metaphor questionnaires are applied to 195 students but 75 of them 16 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo are not evaluated. The gathered data indicated that 37 metaphors are created and the most common one is “mathematics” metaphore created by 26 participants. The others are ranked as calculator (10), puzzle (9), scales (8), jigsaw puzzle (7), life (6), computer (5), tree (5) and etc. Due to the reasons expressed by participants; 37 metaphors are seperated in 10 themes for content analysis and the mentioned themes are identified respectively. The most common onesare ranked as“passing through the stages is required to achieve the result in accounting” and “accounting is consisted of mathematical transactions” by students besides the last themes are expressed as “accounting is the repetition of the same transactions” and “accounting means money”. References Amernic, J. & R. Craig (2009), “Understanding Accounting Through Conceptual Metaphor: Accounting is an instrument?”, Critical Perspectives on Accounting, Vol.20, pp. 875-883. Arnett, R. C. (1999), “Metaphorical Guidance: Administration as building and renovation”, Journal of Educational Administration, 37(1), pp. 80-89. Arslan, F. (2008), “MetaforikTercihlerBakımındanAkif’iOkuyabilmek”, 1.Uluslararası Mehmet AkifSempozyumu, Mehmet AkifErsoyÜniversitesi, Burdur, ss. 259-264. Aydın, İ. H. (2004), “BirFelsefiMetafor: YoldaOlmak”, UlusalSosyalBilimlerSempozyumu, KırıkkaleÜniversitesi, 9-10 Aralık 2004. 1. Cerit, Y. (2006), “Öğrenci, ÖğretmenveYöneticilerinOkulKavramıylaİlgiliMetaforlaraİlişkinGörüşleri”, KuramveUygulamadaEğitimBilimleriDergisi, 6(3), ss. 669-699. Cerit, Y. (2008), “ÖğretmenKavramı İle İlgiliMetaforlaraİlişkinÖğrenci, ÖğretmenveYöneticilerinGörüşleri”, TürkEğitimBilimleriDergisi, 6(4), ss. 693712. Kabadayı, A. (2008), “Analysing the metaphorical images of Turkish preschool teachers”, Teaching Education, 19(1), pp. 73-87. Lakoff, G. & M. Johnson (1980), “Metaphors We Live by”, Chicago: The University of Chicago Pres. McGoun, E.G., Mark S. Bettner& Michael P. Coyne (2007), “Pedagogic Metaphors and the Nature of Accounting Signification”, Critical Perspectives on Accounting, Vol.18. pp. 213-230. Meyer, A. D. (1984), “Mingling Decision Making Metaphors”, Academy of Management Review, Vol.9(1), pp. 6-17. Ocak, G. & M. Gündüz (2006), “EğitimFakültesiniYeniKazananÖğretmenAdaylarınınÖğretmenlikMesleğineGiriş 17 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo DersiniAlmadanÖnceveAldıktanSonraÖğretmenlikMesleğiHakkındakiMetaforların ınKarşılaştırılması”, AfyonKocatepeÜniversitesi SBE Dergisi, VIII(2), ss. 293-309. Sarı, M. (2010), “İlköğretimÖğrencilerinde Polis KavramınınMetaforlarAracılığıylaİncelenmesi”, Polis BilimleriDergisi, Cilt 12(2), ss. 43-80. Tsoukas, H. (1991), “The missing link: Atransformational view of metaphors in organizational science”, The Academy of Management Review, 16(3), pp. 566-585. Uçma, T. (2010), “KavramsalMetaforOlarakMuhasebeyiAnlamak”, MuhasebeBilimDünyasıDergisi, 12(2) ss. 123-141. Uysal, Ö. Ö. (2001), “MuhasebeMetinlerindeMetafor”, EgeAkademikBakışDergisi, 1(2), ss. 53-60. Ünal, A., A. Yıldırım& M. Çelik (2010), “İlköğretimOkuluMüdürveÖğretmenlerininVelilereİlişkinAlgılarınınAnalizi”, SelçukÜniversitesi SBE Dergisi, Sayı 23, ss. 261-272. Walters-York, L. Melisa (1996), “Metaphor in accounting discourse”, Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, Vol.9(5), pp. 45-70. Walters-York, L. Melisa (2004), “Alternative Accounting Thought and the Prison-House of Metaphor”, Accounting, Organization and Society, Vol.29 (2), pp. 157-187. 18 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1475 Title A name given to the resource How is Accounting Perceived in Cognitive Level? A Study Based On Metaphor Author Author GOKGOZ, Ahmet SELCUK DIZKIRICI, Ahmet Abstract A summary of the resource. Metaphor is derivated from the word “metapherein” which is in Greek, besides it is occurred by the combining of the words “meta” and “pherein” meaning “to carry” and “to load” respectively (Arslan, 2008: 259). It is replacing a commonly used concept in place of an uncommonly used one to explain the second concept by means of the first one therefore metaphor is making a substitution (Uçma, 2010: 126). Metaphors include information transfer from a well-known field to a new and unknown one generally (Tsoukas, 1991). They are supposed as tools used to explain how the life, environment, events and objects are perceived by the people via different similitudes (Cerit, 2008: 694). The study is prepared to clarify the “accounting” perception of the students taken accounting courses in Community College or Business School in Yalova University by using metaphors. To this end, metaphor questionnaires including a single open-ended question are applied to 159 students. The results are subjected to content analysis and owing to the fact that 39 of the questionnaires could not create metaphors; the study evaluated on 120 questionnaires. Most common metaphors created by the students participated in the study are identified as mathematics, calculator, puzzle and jigsaw puzzle. Keywords: Metaphor, Accounting. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6cea62b19cfbfda075ee7b64411a05d0.pdf 17f2ea7e9ab41770f7b49e86fc09964a PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Great Depression (1929) in İstanbul and a Turkish Style Contribution to the Solution of the Crisis: Sale Coupons Hamdi Genç İstanbul Medeniyet University, İstanbul-Turkey hamdi.genc@medeniyet.edu.tr İdris Sarısoy Bülent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Turkey sarisoy@karaelmas.edu.tr Great depression was the first global economic crisis of the 20th century. The crisis mostly affected the industrialized countries. Turkey was not an industrialized country, but its capital İstanbul, which was articulated to the world economy, was also affected by the depression. The crises affected the İstanbul city not only economically, but also socially and morally. During the depression years the prices of the basic consumer goods increased and the monopolist and black marketing tendencies among tradesmen strengthened in İstanbul. Local administration was insufficient to solve these problems. The public accused the local auhorities because of the applications of tradesmen. Peoples and institutions advised several solutions for minimizing the negative effects of the crisis in İstanbul. One of them was the İstanbul Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber prepared reports about the solutions and delivered them to the concerned authorities. Besides the Chamber, the Republican Peoples Party, which was the political power of the period, the bureaucrats, who were the implementers of the economic policies, and the academicians prepared reports to make contributions to the solution. The most interesting solution was offered by the “Cumhuriyet” newspaper, described as a Turkish style contribution in this paper. The newspaper offered to its readers in İstanbul daily “sale coupon”s to prevent them from the negative effects of the crises. This paper will discuss the working of the coupons in detail. The Cumhuriyet newspaper made arrangements with shops and stores in different areas in İstanbul to make discounts to its readers. There are a lot of shops on a wide range of branch from basic consumption goods to the stationeries. The consumers in İstanbul benefited from these coupons against the rising prices. Keywords: Crisis, Cupon, 1929 Great Depression, Turkey. 144 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/10485b2254be943fbc63962881174b8e.docx c64b7db77ab528d3f48721e79337198e https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/5200b78c22b4d67020e175b674822d8b.pdf d4cd40f49a5e54255ee0d35fcd09f6c7 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Great Depression (1929) in Istanbul and a Turkish Style Contribution to the Solution of the Crisis: Sale Coupons Hamdi Genç İstanbul Medeniyet University, İstanbul-Turkey hamdi.genc@medeniyet.edu.tr İdris Sarisoy Bülent Ecevit University, Zonguldak, Turkey idrissarisoy@hotmail.com Abstract Great depression was the first global economic crisis of the 20th century. The crisis mostly affected the industrialized countries. Turkey was not an industrialized country, but its capital İstanbul, which was articulated to the world economy, was also affected by the depression. The crises affected the Istanbul city not only economically, but also socially and morally. During the depression years the prices of the basic consumer goods increased and the monopolist and black marketing tendencies among tradesmen strengthened in Istanbul. Local administration was insufficient to solve these problems. The public accused the local authorities because of the applications of tradesmen. Peoples and institutions advised several solutions for minimizing the negative effects of the crisis in İstanbul. One of them was the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber prepared reports about the solutions and delivered them to the concerned authorities. Besides the Chamber, the Republican Peoples Party, which was the political power of the period, the bureaucrats, who were the implementers of the economic policies, and the academicians prepared reports to make contributions to the solution. The most interesting solution was offered by the “Cumhuriyet” newspaper, described as a Turkish style contribution in this paper. The newspaper offered to its readers in Istanbul daily “sale coupon‟s to prevent them from the negative effects of the crises. This paper will discuss the working of the coupons in detail. The Cumhuriyet newspaper made arrangements with shops and stores in different areas in Istanbul to make discounts to its readers. There are a lot of shops on a wide range of branch from basic consumption goods to the stationeries. The consumers in Istanbul benefited from these coupons against the rising prices. Keywords: Great depression, Istanbul, Turkey Cumhuriyet Newspaper Introduction This study will determine the effects of 1929 economic crisis, which is considered as the most severe economic crises of capitalism, on Istanbul; what methods were used to alleviate the effects of the crises and who called institutions for duty to solve the problem. Like in Ottoman period, the city of Istanbul is still the most important city of Turkey in economic and demographic terms. Furthermore, the study will analyze the causes of price 1 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo increases in basic consumption goods and what measures were taken to overcome this problem using primary sources of the related period. 1-Prices of Some Consumer Goods in Istanbul and Profiteering Bread Prices Bread prices increased at the time of the crisis. The okka1 increased to 16-17 kurus. Municipality of Istanbul took some measures to prevent the increases in bread prices. The first one of these measures was to open municipal bakery in Nişantaşı. The municipality would supply the flour for the bakery from the mills in Unkapanı. It would prevent profiteering of bakers and provide clean and cheap bread to the people of Istanbul 2. Another resort to decrease bread prices was to import wheat to Istanbul. This resort was immediately put into practice and the municipality began to import wheat from the USA. Milliyet newspaper announced wheat import to its readers as “25 thousand bags of flour arrived from the USA”. The newspaper also heralded that the price of bread would decrease by approximately 10-20 para3 thanks to flour importation. Other newspapers announced the arrival of 15.000 tons of wheat which was brought to Istanbul in three ships. Meat Prices Majority of small ruminants which supplied meat to Istanbul in Ottoman Era used to be brought from the Balkans and Central Anatolia. The principle reason of this was that it was easier to transport animals from these regions than other cities. On the other hand, large ruminants, which were less consumed than small ruminants, used to come from Thrace4. After the exclusion of the Balkans from the boundaries of the new Turkey, the regions which supplied meat to Istanbul changed. During the years of crisis, the animals to supply meat to Istanbul generally came from Erzurum in winter and from Izmir and its vicinity in summer months. In 1929, minimum 2000-2500 small ruminants were necessary on daily basis to meet meat need of Istanbul. In certain periods, this need increased to 3000. However, there were problems in the supply of animals to meet daily meat need of Istanbul. This, in turn, increased meat prices. While the okka of meat was 110 kurus in 1928, it increased to 150 kurus in 1929. The reasons of the increase of meat prices varied according to different circles. The artisans involved in sheep and meat commerce attributed the increase of meat prices to unfavorable weather conditions; transport prices and to the high taxes collected from live animals and on the meats of slaughtered animals under various names. They believed that okka of meat increased by 25-30 kurus due to abovementioned reasons5. 1 1 Okka=1283 gr Milliyet 23 March 1929 3 40 para is equivalent to 1 Kurus; 100 Kurus is equivalent to 1Lira. 4 Robert Mantran, Istanbul in the Second Half of the17.Century, Volume I, Turkish Historical Society Publications, Ankara 1990, 180-181 5 Milliyet 5 Kanunisani 1929 2 2 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo On the other hand, according to the officials in Municipality of Istanbul, principle reason for increased meat prices was that large numbers of animals were killed due to severe winter conditions and that the animals which were saved were raised with high costs. The municipality didn‟t agree with the opinion that Oktruva (entrance tax collected from the goods from other cities for commercial purposes), which was considered as the cause of high meat prices, was high. The Oktruva tax, which was believed to cause the increase meat prices, remained unchanged for several years and the ratio applied in previous years continued to be applied. A public official who was interviewed by the reporter of Milliyet newspaper in March 1929 attributed increased meat prices in Istanbul to the taxes collected by the municipality and Commodity Exchange rather than to profiteering. As per the practices, Municipality of Istanbul collected 35 kurus and the Commodity Exchange collected 27 kurus tax per okka of meat in the slaughterhouse. It would be possible to buy meat, which was sold to 150 kurus, to 100 kurus if both institutions gave up collecting the taxes. The public official also claimed that Municipality of Istanbul collected 15 kurus barn toll from the people who didn‟t keep their animals in barns, which also increased meat prices6. On the other hand, Cumhuriyet newspaper, which was one of the influential newspapers of the time, attributed high meat prices in Istanbul to “profiteering” practiced by the company of butchers. The newspaper announced that this claim was not based on a rumor, that it had strong evidence. It also declared that it would draw the attention to the municipality and the government on this issue by “proving its claim in its columns”. According to Cumhuriyet newspaper, the company of butchers in Istanbul meat market had an actual monopoly. This monopoly involved a wide area from the purchase of live animals to the sale of meat to consumers. The company of butchers used to buy the animals directly from animal owners. The company sent his men to cities like Erzurum and Bayburt to buy live animals from the producers. Thus, the price of the animals that were sent to Istanbul for slaughter was controlled by the company. Even the people who brought live animals had to sell the animals to the price determined by the company of butchers. Since there was no other buyer in the market, it was impossible for the cattle-dealer to sell the animals unless they accepted the price determined by the company of butchers. In fact, a cattle-dealer which, the company of butchers did not want could never continue its activities in Istanbul. The company of butchers also performed brokering and wholesale business. Cumhuriyet newspaper believed that the increase in meat prices in Istanbul was not caused by natural conditions; it was caused by the monopoly of the company of butchers. To support its opinion, the newspaper also asked for information from the governor of Erzurum about Erzurum market, which mainly supplied meat to Istanbul. According to information obtained from Governor Feyzi Bey, retail price of sheep was 1200 kurus in Erzurum and the wholesale price was much lower. Based on the information obtained from the governor, maximum price of sheep brought to Istanbul from Erzurum should be 2032 6 Milliyet 21 March 1929 3 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo kurus including all costs. However, an income of approximately 250 kurus was obtained when the sheepskin, intestines and variety meats were sold. When this amount is deducted from the cost of transporting sheep to Istanbul, average cost of reporting sheep to Istanbul would decrease to 1782 kurus. Considering that 20 okka meat is obtained from an average sheep, it was calculated that maximum price of sheep meat in Istanbul should be 89 kurus. However, the people of Istanbul bought meat to 150-180 kurus. The company of butchers sent an explanation to Cumhuriyet newspaper due to its report stating that the company was founded with a capital of 500.000 Turkish Liras and its field of activity included various commercial and industrial works such as leather, variety meats and transport. The company also stated that they didn‟t work as butchers in Istanbul and therefore cannot be held responsible for high meat prices in Istanbul market. According to the company of butchers, the reason for high meat prices was retailer small butchers. Hamdi Bey, one of the chairmen of the Chamber of Commerce, declared that 60 kurus difference between the selling price and cost of meat stemmed from retailer butcher artisans and supported the attitude of the company of butchers7. Profiteering The media in Turkey emphasized that, although it seemed that high price of basic foodstuff was caused by inflation and the difference between gold money and bank notes, the real reason was the profiteering performed by the artisans in the market. They tried to prove their claims by the difference between wholesale and retail prices of goods. For example, soap with a wholesale price of 50 kurus was sold to 80kurus in the market. Pure olive oil which was sold to 85-90 kurus was sold to 120 kurus in the market. It was claimed that even if all costs, office rent and 20% profit is added to these goods from the wholesaler to the stage of retail selling, there would be only a difference of approximately 25% between the wholesale and retail selling price. However, there was a minimum 40-50% price difference between the wholesale and retail price of the goods in the market. This was attributed to the mercilessness of artisans and the situation of people in the market and bazaar was resembled to desperate robbed people. The reason for this situation in the market was attributed to the failure of Municipality of Istanbul to inspect properly. According to the media, the municipality perceived the task of control as stopping cars and changing the places of peddlers. However, the task of control includes inspection of artisans in their workplace; to arrest the profiteers in the act and to punish the perpetrators by law8. The newspapers called Istanbul artisans, whom they believed to increase prices as follows: “you are robbing people by means of this ugly profiteering. The people will be penniless tomorrow, if not today. Who will you sell those goods in your stores then?” The newspapers emphasized the nationality of the artisans using the rhetoric of that time and as 7 8 2 August 1929 Cumhuriyet Coping with high cost of living 1 September 19129 İkdam 4 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo follows: “Grocer Koço, butcher Yorgo can open a store in Athens ad Kalamata with what they earned. However, you, Turkish artisans, what will you do?” 9. 2-Price Increases in Istanbul in Crisis Period and the Methods to Eliminate Price Increases Opinion of Istanbul Chamber of Commerce on Price Increases In 1929, when the economic crisis broke out, the officials of Istanbul Chamber of Commerce reported as follows: “High cost of living was prevalent all over the world not only in Istanbul. However, price increases in Istanbul were not natural and more severe. The increase ratio was at an unacceptable level.” According to the officials of the Chamber of Commerce, it was possible to reduce high cost of living in Istanbul by15%. The first thing to do was to stop collection of high Oktruva tax by the municipality over basic foodstuff. The second thing to do was to establish cooperation by the Directorate of Economy of the Municipality and to encourage local people to establish district cooperation. The middleman between the cooperation and producers will be eliminated and thus the prices will decrease10. The Chamber of Commerce only criticized the municipality for the high cost of living, while Daily newspapers reported that the Chamber of Commerce had a role in it. According to the newspapers, prices increased since the Chamber of Commerce failed to fulfill its principle duty. İkdam newspaper reported from the headlines as follows: “A city with a municipality, chamber of commerce, other similar institutions. However, these official institutions fail to fulfill their duties. The cost of living would not be so high if the institutions in Istanbul did their jobs properly. For example let‟s think of Chamber of Commerce. The chamber of commerce is the official union of the artisans and tradesmen. This organization should feel honor-bound to prevent profiteering and exclude the profiteers.” The news report declared that in addition to protecting the rights of traders, the profiteers should be eliminated too. Profiteering was the enemy of humanity and nation and it decreased production of goods. İkdam newspaper reported that chambers of commerce in other countries worked in coordination with the government and municipalities and they were the right-man of the state in economic matters. However, these institutions hadn‟t reached that level in Turkey. İkdam newspaper asked what Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, which should have contributed to solve the problems did at the time when these problems were experiences. It also sought to answer whether the Chamber of Commerce had something to do in a period when the prices increased. On the other hand, Istanbul Chamber of Commerce seemed to be an organization which only collected contribution from the artisans as its task and didn‟t solve any of the problems. The newspaper resembled the chamber as a lodge which failed to do its principle duty. However, the duty of the Chamber of Commerce was to warn the 9 Coping with high cost of living 4 September 1929 İkdam 15 Eylül 1912 Cumhuriyet 10 5 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo artisans about the prices of the goods they sell and to impose sanctions on the artisans which perform profiteering. It was declared that presence of even one profiteer among the members of the chamber would destroy the trust of the artisans to each other and that would be a catastrophe for the artisans. İkdam newspaper compared the chambers of commerce in Turkey with those in Europe. The chambers of commerce in Europe made publications to raise the awareness of the consumers to contribute to decrease the high cost of living. It was claimed that Istanbul Chamber of Commerce didn‟t have a role despite its corporate identity and didn‟t take any action especially to reduce high prices. Therefore, the newspaper reported that Istanbul Chamber of Commerce failed to meet the expectations of the people of Istanbul stating “ The Chamber of Commerce turned into a bedroom. Everyone is fast asleep.” Another reason for criticizing the Chamber of Commerce was that it manipulated the figures in its restricted publications, to show as if the high cost of living wasn‟t high in Istanbul. In a daily newspaper titled “Piyasa Cedveli” (Market Table), the Chamber announced the prices of some goods to the people of Istanbul. However, these prices weren‟t consistent with the prices in the market. Prices of some goods were listed in Piyasa Cedveli as follows: Potatoes 11 kurus Cheese 85 kurus Olive oil 48-50 kurus. However, real market price of these goods were as follows: Potatoes 17 kurus Cheese 110 kurus Olive oil100 kurus In this case, the newspapers decreased the reliability of the Chamber of Commerce. The newspapers implied that the figures announced by the chamber were not true, stating that based on the prices the chamber announces, one should believe that the high cost of living is not high in Istanbul. Furthermore, the newspapers asked the Chamber of Commerce the following question: “We wonder from which cheap market the chamber of commerce takes these cheap prices. How can it give these prices to the authorities as official market prices?” The newspaper claimed that this type of misleading information stemmed from the actions of the directors of the chamber of commerce to protect their interests, instead of protecting the interests of the society11. Newspapers and Price Increases The newspapers in Turkey felt responsibility in struggling with the high cost of living in Istanbul and constantly published articles on this problem. The reason for their attitude was the belief that they cannot remain indifferent to the priority problems of the society. Neither the “Mexican revolution” nor “the exhibitions in Spain” were the most important 11 Cheap life! 6 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo problems of the readers. The main problem which made 700.000-800.000 people, including the readers, think was what to eat for lunch, how to buy new clothes and how to pay the rent12 While investigating the causes of “high prices” nightmare in Istanbul, which both affected the rich and the poor, İkdam newspaper asked the opinions of various people from the bureaucracy and from the market thinking that they could have a solution for the problem. The reason for this was that it attempted to determine the problem thought and to present a suitable solution for the problem13. İkdam newspaper started a column titled “struggle with high cost of living”. This column included the opinions of the abovementioned people on the reasons for the cost of living in Istanbul and how to deal with this problem. In this framework, Hamdi Bey, General Directorate of Port Company, was one of the people whose opinion was asked. Hamdi Bey believed that the high cost of living appeared in two ways. The first one was the increase in white consumer goods, the second one was “financial hardship”. He believed that the second was more important because subsistence and earning more became very difficult and the opportunity of employment decreased in Turkey. Therefore, when a vacancy was announced for a public servant with a monthly income of 50 liras, 50.000 people applied for the position. Hamdi Bey believed that the problem of cost of living would be solved by increasing employment opportunities. However, neither the public sector nor the private sector had enough capital to establish new industrial plants. Turkey should certainly encourage foreign capital to eliminate the problem of capital. According to Hamdi Bey, if 4-5 million pound foreign capital is provided to Turkey on annual basis, it would be possible to found industrial investments to increase production. Ahmet Hamdi Bey attributed high good prices in Turkey to three reasons. The first one was the high production cost of the goods. The second one was that produced goods didn‟t reach the customers directly, they were offered via the middleman and transport prices were high. For example, the transport cost of one ton of goods from Haydarpaşa to Ankara was sometimes equivalent to the price of that good. Inadequate means of transport and unavailability of roads also increased transport costs. These factors also caused price increases. The third one was that the people didn‟t know how to control their expenses. According to Hamdi Bey, an indication of not knowing how to control their expenses was that the people used to buy goods from the shops instead of directly going to producers. The reason for widespread use of this method was that the men went home at an early hour and left the work at a late hour in that period. However, it was reported that in the past since the men didn‟t have any working hour or time constraints, they used to buy goods they need from cheap sellers. According to Hamdi Bey, the men were excluded from managing the house since they didn‟t have enough time and that the women undertook this responsibility. However, the women couldn‟t do shooing as the men. 12 13 17 May 1929 İkdam 13 May 1929 İkdam 7 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo It was claimed that the women didn‟t know how to do shopping since they were unaware of trade or perceived it easy and felt it beneath them to go shopping were effective in their inability in shopping. Therefore, instead of buying the goods they need from cheap places, the women preferred to buy them from nearly butchers or shops. This preference caused minimum twenty-thirty percent more expensive prices. Ahmet Hamdi Bey believed that the cooperation established in other countries that experienced high cost of living and like those established by the non-Muslims in Turkey should be founded by Turkish people to solve the problem of high cost of living14. Hakkı Cemil, who was one of the writers in İkdam newspaper dated 29 June 1929, asked Muhittin Bey, the Mayor of Istanbul the reason for high cost of living in Istanbul in his article titled “High prices”. Furthermore, he also asked why the prices in Istanbul showed variations while the consumer goods in cities such as Athens, Sofia and Thessaloniki are the same in all regions of the city. Hakkı Cemil Bey recommended that the municipality should announce the prices of the goods in public placed to prevent price differences. He reported that, instead of solving the priority problems of the people, the Municipality of Istanbul gave priority to public works problems of the city which are of secondary or third importance for the people. The municipality incurred costs and even sent groups to European cities for the public works of the city in the period of crisis. However, Hakkı Cemil Bey believed that instead of these types of things, the Municipality of Istanbul should use all its material and spiritual powers to eliminate high prices15. Vehbi Bey, who was a member of the Economic Council and one of the teachers of the School of Ali Commercial Center, reported that high cost of living can be dealt with in two ways. The first one includes “positive” measures. In this context, there was no shortage of goods that met the basic needs of the consumers. According to Vehbi Bey, the craftsmen, industrialists and tradesmen would achieve this in the market. Vehbi Bey also recommended dealing with profiteering by the municipality by avoiding being radical and taking palliative measures. However, this struggle should not be a factor for pressure on other artisans. Vehbi Bey recommended the consumers to limits the consumption of foodstuff, to prefer low quality products instead of normal ones and to give up jewelry and luxurious goods in the context of “individual” measures16. 14 12 June 1929 İkdam Hakkı Cemi, “Cost of Living” İkdam 29 June 1929 16 13 May 1929 İkdam 15 8 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo 3-Method for Solving Problems: Discount Coupons of Cumhuriyet Newspaper Cumhuriyet newspaper also made attempts to contribute to the problem of high cost of living, about which all people of Istanbul complained about. The newspaper adopted the view that the government and the municipality of Istanbul made enough efforts to deal with high cost of living. The newspaper believed that, if they didn‟t made enough efforts as some people claimed; this would certainly have a positive impact on the people. Since the newspaper didn‟t agree with the opinions of those who claimed that they made attempts to eliminate problems, it made its own contribution. This contribution included discount coupons the newspapers gives its readers “to attack the cost of living which resembles a seven-headed dragon” Cumhuriyet newspaper explained the reason for the discount coupons it gave as follows: “There is a sick person. The doctors surrounding him are making constant debates to make the diagnosis. However, what they do is only wasting time”. The newspaper reported that everyone brought theoretical opinions to solve the cost of living problem, whereas the important thing was to practice them. For this reason, Cumhuriyet newspaper set aside theoretical recommendations and suggested discount coupons as a practical practice17. In his leading article in Cumhuriyet newspaper, Yunus Nadi explained his “new attempts” about “cheap life” and explained how they could benefit from them18. Cumhuriyet newspaper was giving its readers one “discount coupon” on daily basis. The coupon had to be used on the day it was issued. The newspaper signed contracts with various “trade centers and corporations” too meet all kinds of needs. The corporates with whom contracts were signed were announced in the newspaper every day. The places which were announced in the newspaper would make a discount to a ratio it promised to each customer, no matter what the price of the good, if they brought the discount coupon of that day. The newspaper announced the names, neighborhoods and discount ratios of the organizations which would make discounts everyday on the third page. Discount ratios varied between 5-10-15%. The newspaper also explained how the coupons should be used with an example. For example, think that you go to a store which was announced in the newspaper to make a discount and that store announced that it will make 10% discount as per the contract itmade with the newspaper. Like every customer, you entered that store and bargain without stating that you brought a coupon. Think that you agreed to pay 15 liras for a good. Now it‟s time to pay. You give 135 liras instead of 1.5. Before the cashier tells you: - You didn‟t pay the full amount! You take the coupon out of your wallet and put it on the money. Then you will see that the cashier will say “Thank you”. You will keep 1.5 liras, get your good and leave the store contentedly.” 17 18 Cumhuriyet “how we make life cheaper” Yunus Nadi “Ucuz hayat” 14 May 1929 Cumhuriyet ,Yunus Nadi, “Milli Ekonomi” 9 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo References 12 June 1929 İkdam 13 May 1929 İkdam 13 May 1929 İkdam 15 Eylül 1912 Cumhuriyet 17 May 1929 İkdam 2 August 1929 Cumhuriyet Cumhuriyet “how we make life cheaper” Hakkı Cemi, “Cost of Living” İkdam 29 June 1929 Milliyet 21 March 1929 Milliyet 23 March 1929 Milliyet 5 Kanunisani 1929 Robert Mantran, (1990). Istanbul in the Second Half of the17.Century, Volume I, Turkish Historical Society Publications, Ankara, 180-181 Yunus Nadi (1929). „Ucuz hayat‟ Cumhuriyet ,Yunus Nadi, “Milli Ekonomi” 10 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1530 Title A name given to the resource Great Depression (1929) in İstanbul and a Turkish Style Contribution to the Solution of the Crisis: Sale Coupons Author Author GENC, Hamdi SARISOY, Idris Abstract A summary of the resource. Great depression was the first global economic crisis of the 20th century. The crisis mostly affected the industrialized countries. Turkey was not an industrialized country, but its capital İstanbul, which was articulated to the world economy, was also affected by the depression. The crises affected the İstanbul city not only economically, but also socially and morally. During the depression years the prices of the basic consumer goods increased and the monopolist and black marketing tendencies among tradesmen strengthened in İstanbul. Local administration was insufficient to solve these problems. The public accused the local auhorities because of the applications of tradesmen. Peoples and institutions advised several solutions for minimizing the negative effects of the crisis in İstanbul. One of them was the İstanbul Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber prepared reports about the solutions and delivered them to the concerned authorities. Besides the Chamber, the Republican Peoples Party, which was the political power of the period, the bureaucrats, who were the implementers of the economic policies, and the academicians prepared reports to make contributions to the solution. The most interesting solution was offered by the “Cumhuriyet” newspaper, described as a Turkish style contribution in this paper. The newspaper offered to its readers in İstanbul daily “sale coupon”s to prevent them from the negative effects of the crises. This paper will discuss the working of the coupons in detail. The Cumhuriyet newspaper made arrangements with shops and stores in different areas in İstanbul to make discounts to its readers. There are a lot of shops on a wide range of branch from basic consumption goods to the stationeries. The consumers in İstanbul benefited from these coupons against the rising prices. Keywords: Crisis, Cupon, 1929 Great Depression, Turkey. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/348bd6478e5f90727e526188c6b5f31f.pdf ddb6f3b301a2b0e042f740d13953ddbb PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo A Model for Discrete Time/Space Approximation of the Vasicek Model for the Interest Rate Nedim Gavranovic American University in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina nedimg@bih.net.ba In this paper we present the mathematical model for the real interest rate as an autoregressive discrete time and discrete state space process. The process is an approximation of Vasicek continuous time–space autoregressive process presented in Vasicek (1977). We choose Vasicek model for interest rate for developing bond prices as the one which is used in the analysis of optimal asset allocation problems by many authors. It is a type of one factor short rate model where interest rate movements are driven by one source of market risk. Our model can be used in many applications when modelling an interest rate mathematically or for making simulations on the computer. The shortcoming of Vasicek model is the positive probability of the negative value of interest rate. Due to mean reverting characteristic of the interest rate, even for the negative value of real interest rate, there will be a certain demand for both traditional and index–linked bonds. It is possible to derive the bond market model using the interest rate which does not allow the negative values of the interest rate, for example Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model (Cox et al (1985)). Although CIR model may be more appropriate, and the one and ten years rolling bonds market model can be developed using CIR model, it would be also computationally more demanding. In our model we assume that the discrete time interval is one year. We will show below the technique to transform the continuous time Vasicek process into a discrete time one. We assume that the interest rate can take a finite number of values in a reasonable range. As the Vasicek process transformed into discrete time is still a continuous state space process we use the technique from Tauchen and Hussey (1991) and as a result we get a process with discrete time–state space. Once we obtain a discrete time–state process for real interest rate we can model bond prices as the expected present value of future incomes from the bond. As we assume a zero coupon bond, it means that the bond price is expected present value of one money unit that will be due in n years’ time, where n years is the bond duration. Following the Vasicek approach, we can also introduce a market price of risk. As a final result we get the approximation of the bond market. Keywords: Discrete Time, the Vasicek Model, Interest Rate. 222 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ac1d525ba601f25b7da7e9c991299026.docx 84986936495e6e1caf7741cde1d67da6 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/88022d4a4a547b75777c1cf81c4d6972.pdf 11f0ea660fd6ee84c012f7a1e884e523 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo A Bond Market Model Based onDiscrete Time/State Space Approximation of the Vasicek Model Nedim Gavranović American University in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina nedimg@bih.net.ba Abstract In this paper we present the mathematical model for the interest rate (either real or nominal) as an autoregressive discrete time and discrete state space process. Having defined an interest rate model with discrete time/state spaces, we derive zerocoupon prices for bonds with any duration and any initial value of the interest rate. The process is an approximation of Vasicek continuous time/state space autoregressive process presented in Vasicek (1977). We choose Vasicek model for interest rate for developing bond prices as the one which is used in the analysis of optimal asset allocation problems by many authors. It is a type of one factor short rate model where interest rate movements are driven by one source of market risk. Our model can be used in many applications when modeling an interest rate or bond prices mathematically. It is particularly suitable for making simulations on the computer. The shortcoming of Vasicek model is the positive probability of the negative value of interest rate. Due to mean reverting characteristic of the interest rate, even for the negative value of interest rate, there will be a certain demand for both traditional and index–linked bonds. It is possible to derive the bond market model using the interest rate which does not allow the negative values of the interest rate, for example Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model (Cox et al (1985)). Although CIR model may be deemed as a more appropriate, it would be also computationally more demanding. In our model we assume that the discrete time interval is one year. We will show the technique to transform the continuous time Vasicek process into a discrete time one. As the Vasicek process is transformed into discrete time process, it is still a continuous state space process. We use the technique from Tauchen and Hussey (1991) and as a result get a process with discrete time/state spaces. Once we obtain a discrete time/state process for interest rate we can model bond prices as the expected present value of future incomes from the bond. We model a zero coupon bond. Thus, the bond price is expected present value of one money unit that will be due in n years, where n years is the bond duration. Following the Vasicek approach, we can also introduce a market price of risk. As a final result we get the model for the zero-coupon bond prices for the whole bond market (different durations) and for different states of economy (different known values of the interest rate). Keywords: interest rate; Vasicek model, AR(1) process; approximation; computer modeling; discrete time/state spaces, bond market model Introduction In different financial models, one needs to decide if the assumption of constant inflation or constant interest rate is an acceptable approximation. Namely, under this assumption the model does not recognize the risk of inflation or interest rate risk. Adding these risks in the model give us the new insight into the importance of these risks. 1 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The usual assumption for the interest rate (or inflation) in the model is one of the following: constant, identically independently distributed (iid) random variables for each time period, discrete time stochastic process and continuous time stochastic process. Often, continuous time models better represent the real world. The advantage of a discrete time model over continuous time one is the possibility to solve the problem on computers, and sometimes to obtain the results numerically while the analytical solution is not available with a current mathematical knowledge. In recent years we have witnessed the fast development of computer hardware and software, and of parallel computing. So, when we develop a discrete time model there are very powerful tools for obtaining a numerical solution. Even more, if we want to improve the model, for example to add certain constraints or to add annuities or one or more variables, the improved version of the model still can be solvable. A shortcoming of the numerical solution on the computer is that we usually get one numerical solution for one choice of the values for each parameter. In order to get an idea about the solution for different values of the parameters, we need to get a number of solutions and to compare them numerically. We model the interest rate as an autoregressive discrete time and discrete state space process. The process is an approximation of Vasicek continuous time/state space autoregressive process presented in Vasicek (1977). As the Vasicek model provides bond prices for an implied bond market, we can compare bond prices on the bond market obtained in our model with the one obtained from Vasicek model. Wilkie (1986, 1995) develops a discrete time and state spaces stochastic inflation model similar to our model presented here. Our approach is to start from Vasicek model and develop formulae directly from Vasicek model. For example, our approach can be applied to making discrete time and state spaces approximation of the bond market developed by Boulier et al (2001), and similar reasoning could be applied to the work of Deelstra et al (2000). In our model we assume that the discrete time interval is one year. We assume that interest rate can take finite number of values in a reasonable range. Firstly, the Vasicek process is transformed into discrete time and a continuous state space process. Then, we use the technique from Tauchen and Hussey (1991) and as a result we get a process with discrete time/state space. In Section 2, we present assumptions and the main parts of the Vasicek model. In Section 3, we start from the formulae provided in Vasicek model and derive formulae for discrete model of interest rate. Once we obtain a discrete time/state process for real interest rate we can model bond prices as the expected present value of future income. As we assume a zero coupon bond, it means that the bond price is expected present value of one money unit that will be due in n years, where n years is the bond duration. Following the Vasicek approach, we can also introduce a market price of risk. In Section 4, as a final result we get the approximation of the bond market. The model for the bond market is based on the discrete time/state space interest rate and can be used for computer simulation of the bond market that is consistent with the interest rate. 2 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Main Formulae of the Vasicek Model The Vasicek model is used for modeling interest rate where time and state spaces are continuous. It is a continuous time AR (1) process given by drˆt  (a  brˆt )dt   rˆ dWrˆ (t ) (1) where r̂0 is the initial value of the interest rate, a , b and  r̂ are non–negative constants and Wrˆ (t ) is Brownian motion. We use notation rˆt for interest rate from Vasicek model in order to avoid the confusion with interest rate afterwards in this paper. As throughout the whole paper, the sign  above variable denotes it is a random variable. We know that rˆt is a normally distributed random variable and that the conditional expectation and variance of the process given current level r̂0 are a  a E  rˆT     rˆ0   ebT b  b (2)  Var  rˆT   rˆ 1  e2bT  2b (3) 2 for T  0 . The stochastic differential equation of the bond investments is given by dB (T  t , rˆt )   rˆt   B T  t , rˆt  rˆ  dt   B T  t , rˆt  dWrˆ  t  ˆ B(T  t , rt ) (4) where t is the time such that 0  t  T , T is bond duration, B(T , T )  1 , and rˆ   B (T  t , rˆt )  rˆt .  B (T  t , rˆt ) r̂ is referred to as bond's market price of risk and is constant. The function  B (T  t , rˆt ) is given by  B (T  t , rˆt )  1  e  b (T t )  rˆ b for T  t  0 . If we work with zero–coupon bonds and assume that we are interested in the value at time t  0 of the bonds maturing at time T and assuming current value of the interest rate is r̂0 , then the price of the zero–coupon bond is given by 3 (5) �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo     1  ebT  B T , rˆ0   Exp   rˆ rˆ   T     b  b 2  1  ebT 2   a 1   rˆ   1  ebT  rˆ2 ˆ Exp  T       r0  3 1  e bT   b 4a   b 2  a    b  (6) Discrete Time/State Space Approximation of the Vasicek Model In order to approximate Vasicek model in discrete time and continuous state space we observe the process Rt  (ad  bd Rt )t   dRR (t ) (7) where R (t )  N (0,1) are independent random variables with normal distribution, for t   . In order to have similar results from the continuous time and discrete time process we fit the parameters ad , bd and  dR into the Vasicek model (1). Let us derive formula for RT using equation (7). We have R1  R0  ad  bd R0   dRR (1) and R  a  (1  b ) R    (1) . 1 Then d d 0 dR R R 2  ad  1  bd  R1   dRR  2   ad  1  bd   ad  1  bd  R0   dRR 1    dRR  2  2 1 2  ad  1  bd   1  bd  R0   dR  1  bd  k 2 k 0 2k k 1 R  k  Continuing the similar reasoning gives us the relation T 1 T k 0 k 1 k T T k RT  ad  1  bd   1  bd  R0   dR  1  bd  R  k  , for T   (8) Knowing that the sum of normally distributed random variables is again normally distributed random variable we have that T  dr  1  bd  k 1 T k  T  k 1 R  k   N  0,  dr2  1  bd  2 T  k    , or  Now, we can easily derive E  RT   ad  a  T   R0  d  1  bd  bd  bd  and 4 (9) �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo 1  1  bd  Var  RT    bd  2  bd  2T 2 dR (10) Let us determine the coefficients ad , bd and  dR such that equations (2) and (9), and (3) and (10) respectively, gives the same values. From the first two equations, by equating the expectations, we have that bd  1  eb (11) and ad  a 1  eb b (12) Now, from the second pair of equations, by equating variances, we get  dR   rˆ 1  e2b 2b (13) The discrete time version of the Vasicek process given in (7) is now fully defined and the appropriate parameter values are given in (11)–(13). We have the discrete time and continuous state AR (1) process such that Rt is normally distributed and the conditional expectation and variation of this random variable is the same as the conditional expectation and variance for the Vasicek process given in(1). Thus, we have defined the discrete time and continuous state space approximation of the Vasicek process(1). Tauchen and Hussey (1991) gives the technique for approximating discrete time and continuous state space AR (1) process with a discrete time and state spaces process. We apply this technique to the process(7). In order to deploy the technique from Tauchen and Hussey (1991), we need to choose the density function  ( y) , and the number N denoting the number of Quadrature points. Let the density function  ( y) be the density function of the random variable with the distribution a  N  d ,  dR  .  bd  (14) This choice is based on the proposal in Tauchen and Hussey (1991), where the authors say that this choice works well in most examples. Let us denote with rt random variable which has discrete time and state spaces and which approximate random variable R . It is autoregressive process defined in the form t P rt 1  rt 1;k | rt  rt ; j  5 (15) �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo for 1  j, k  N . The constants rt ;i for 1  i  N are the possible states of the interest rate to be defined below. Let the number of Quadrature points be N . The bigger the number of points the better is approximation. However, the choice of N  15 provides quite good behavior and we show the results with the choice of 15 Quadrature points in Appendix. Based on this choice we choose abscissa points, i.e. the possible states of the interest rate are constants rt ;1 , rt ;2 , …, rt ; N , such that the probabilities derived using this technique satisfies the condition P rt 1  rt 1;i | rt  rt ;1   0.02 and P rt 1  rt 1;i | rt  rt ; N   0.02 for 1  i  N and that the points are derived from Gauss Quadrature with these ending points. We derive the weights w1 , …, wN , for these choice of abscissa points and the density function  ( y) . Let us also define the function f  y | r0  as the density function for the random variable with the distribution a   a  N  d   r0  d  1  bd  ,  dr  bd   bd   (16) Having determined the abscissa points, the weighting function and the function f  y | r0  , we can apply the Tauchen and Hussey (1991) technique as follows. Let s  rj    N f  ri | rj  i 1 and let  Njk    rj  f  rk | rj  s  rj    rk  wj wk (17) (18) Then according to Tauchen and Hussey (1991), we have   N ( N ,N ) jk ( j , k ) (1,1)   p jk  ( N ,N ) ( j , k ) (1,1)  P rt 1  rt 1;k | rt  rt ; j  (19) Numerical Derivation of the Bond prices In Section 3, we defined the discrete time/state spaces autoregressive process which approximates the Vasicek model. Now, we derive the zero–coupon bond prices from this process and get the model for the bond market. We first derive the price of the zero–coupon bond with no market price of risk. As usual, it is defined as expected present value of one unit payout after time T . Thus, we have 6 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo B T , r0   E e r1 e r2  ...  e rT  (20) where r1 is a random variable denoting random interest during the first year, r2 is a random variable denoting random interest during the second year knowing r1 , and so on. In order to allow for the existence of the market price of risk, we use the idea from equation (6) and introduce the market price of risk by multiplying the bond price with no market price of risk (equation (20)) with the similar factor as in the continuous time Vasicek model. Let the constant r represents the market price of risk in the Vasicek bond market model. Then we get the equation for the price of a zero–coupon bond as follows B T , r0   e   r r  1     bT T   1 e b b  E e r1 e r2  ...  e rT  (21) Let us explain how we can calculate numerically the bond price in discrete time/state spaces. Following the main formula for the expected value we have that B 1, r0  r0; j   e e   r r  1 e b   r r  1 e b  b  b  b  b  1  E e  r1   1 N  e  r1;k k 1 p jk For the bond of the duration two years we have B  2, r0  r0; j   e   r r  1 e2 b  b  b  2    E e e   e  r1  r2   r r  1 e2 b  b  b  2  N    N  r1;k1  r2;k2  pk1k2  p jk1 e e  k1 1  k2 1  or B  2, r0  r0; j   e   r r  1 e2 b  b  b  2  N   e  r1;k1 k1 1  N  r2;k2  pk1k2  p jk1 e  k2 1  The same pattern is applied for longer durations. However, we can see that the part of the second sum is the same as the sum for the bond with one year duration. Apart from the coefficient for the market price of risk the difference is in the indices only. Using this observation, one can firstly calculate the prices of bonds with the duration of 1 year and for all possible states for r0 and then use these results to obtain the results for the bond with duration of two years. This feature is important when the calculation is applied on the computer. If we define   N B 1, r1  r1;k1   e  r2;k2 k2 1 pk1k2 (22) Then one can write B  2, r0  r0; j   e   r r  1 e2 b  b  b  2  N   e k1 1 Similarly, if we define 7  r1;k1   B 1, r1  r1;k1 p jk1 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo   N B 2, r1  r1;k1   e  r2;k2 k2 1   B 1, r2  r2;k2 pk1k2 then B  3, r0  r0; j   e   r r  1 e3 b  b  b  3  N   e  rk1 k1 1   B 2, r1  r1;k1 p jk1 . Following this pattern, we get an inductive formula for bond prices which significantly reduces computing time. However, we calculate bond prices B T , r0  r0; j  , for 0  T  Tmax and 1  j  N only once and then use the results in the simulations. So, it is important to calculate it in reasonable time only once. Future Research We can use the model and its solution for the investigation of the influence of random inflation or random interest rate in different models. We can also use the results for the models where we need bond prices consistent with a stochastic interest rate. The results are particularly useful for making stochastic simulations on the computer. We model the interest rate using AR(1) Vasicek model. Another model for the interest rate can be used for developing the values of the interest rate in discrete time/statespace environment. The similar technique could be applied to other models as well. Appendix In Appendix, we firstly derive the formula for the exact value of bond prices in discrete time and continuous state space. Then, we compare bond prices derived from the Vasicek model (continuous time/state spaces) with bond prices derive, from the first approximation of the Vasicek model (discrete time and continuous state spaces) and from the second approximation of the Vasicek model (discrete time/state spaces). This Appendix is intended to give the idea of the changes in bond prices due to the approximation. We will not try to evaluate the quality of approximation by any criteria, just to give comparable bond prices values. Equation (20) for the discrete time and continuous state spaces AR(1) process (7) can be solved exactly. Having solved equation (20), we multiply it by the factor  e  r r  1 e T b  b  b  T   (23) for T   and get the exact bond prices in the first approximation of the Vasicek model, where we have discrete time and continuous state spaces. For T  1 equation (20) in discrete time and continuous state spaces can be written as B 1, r0   E e r1   8  e   r1 f  r1 | r0  dr1 (24) �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Knowing that r1 is normally distributed with mean and variance defined in (9) and (10) respectively, we have that B 1, r0    1 e r1 e  2 Var[r1 | r0 ]    r1  E [ r1 |r0 ]2 2Var [ r1 |r0 ] dr1 (25) and B  2, r0   E e r1 e r2 | r0   E e  r2 E e  r1 | r0  | r0   E e r2 B 1, r0  | r0  As we know that r2 is normal random variable, we can derive the solution of the last equation. Having the solution B  2, r0  and multiplying it with factor defined in (23) for T  2 we get the bond price with the duration of two years for any r0   . Continuing this process, we can calculate any B T , r0  , for T  . Multiplying B T , r0  with factor defined in (23) we get bond prices for any duration and any r0   . There is a requirement to have certain relations between bond prices if we want to have a sound model. One way to check the soundness of the bond market model is to compare bond prices derived using the three models for the interest rate. We expect that, for the same duration and for the same initial value of the interest rate, bond prices have similar values. The second important thing we need to have in order to deem the bond prices model as a sound one is to have the same pattern when bond prices are compared in each model. It means that we expect decreasing bond prices as the value of the interest rate during the previous year increases. In Table 1, we present the prices of zero–coupon bonds with the duration of five and ten years and different values of the interest rate during the previous year, for discrete time and state spaces, for discrete time and continuous state space, and for the Vasicek model. 9 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 1: Calculated bond prices for the following values of the parameters: a  0.012 , b  0.6   0.02 and r  0,1528 , and ad  0.009023 , bd  0.451188 and  d  0.015262 . Number of the interest rate states N  15 , the end points for the abscissa are 2.44% and 6.44% . Interest rate Duration 5 year Duration 10 year 1 2 3 –2.44% –2.21% –1.81% Discrete time/state spaces, numerical solution 92.96 92.79 92.49 Discrete time/ continuous state spaces 93.78 93.53 93.10 Continuou s time/state spaces, Vasicek 95.55 95.21 94.60 Discrete time/state spaces, numerical solution 82.35 82.19 81.91 Discrete time/ continuous state spaces 83.20 82.97 82.57 Continuou s time/state spaces, Vasicek 84.84 84.52 83.96 4 –1.25% 92.04 92.50 93.77 81.50 82.01 83.19 5 6 –0.56% 0.22% 91.44 90.73 91.77 90.93 92.75 91.59 80.96 80.30 81.33 80.54 82.24 81.16 7 1.09% 89.92 90.02 90.34 79.56 79.70 79.99 8 9 2.00% 2.91% 89.06 88.21 89.08 88.15 89.05 87.79 78.77 77.99 78.83 77.97 78.80 77.62 10 3.78% 87.42 87.27 86.59 77.27 77.15 76.51 11 12 4.56% 5.25% 86.73 86.17 86.48 85.79 85.50 84.57 76.64 76.12 76.41 75.77 75.50 74.64 13 5.81% 85.74 85.24 83.83 75.73 75.26 73.95 14 6.21% 85.46 84.84 83.30 75.47 74.90 73.46 15 6.44% 85.30 84.62 83.00 75.33 74.69 73.18 We see that long term expected values a / b  0.02 as well as ad / bd  0.02 , as we expected. When we compare bond prices with the same duration in each row we see similar values. For the two presented values of the bond duration, we can see the biggest range of bond prices is for the Vasicek model and the lowest is for discrete time and state spaces. However, observing the columns for the first and for the second approximation of the Vasicek model we can say that bond prices behave quite reasonably in terms of changes as function of the value of the interest rate during the previous year. In Table 2 we present the values of the rates of return on 10 year rolling bonds during one year assuming the value of the interest rate during the previous year being 1.25% and 2.00% . 10 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 2: Rates on 10 year rolling bonds during one year assuming the value of the interest rate during the previous year is 1.25% and 2.00% , and the value of interest the rate in the following year given in the first column. Interest Rate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 –2.44% –2.21% –1.81% –1.25% –0.56% 0.22% 1.09% 2.00% 2.91% 3.78% 4.56% 5.25% 5.81% 6.21% 6.44% B  9, r1   1 in % B 10, 1.25%  Discrete time/state spaces, numerical solution 3.55 3.36 3.01 2.49 1.81 0.98 0.05 –0.94 –1.92 –2.83 –3.62 –4.27 –4.76 –5.09 –5.27 Discrete time/ continuous state spaces 3.96 3.67 3.17 2.47 1.62 0.65 –0.41 –1.49 –2.57 –3.59 –4.51 –5.31 –5.94 –6.40 –6.66 Continuou s time/state spaces, Vasicek 4.51 4.11 3.42 2.47 1.30 –0.02 –1.45 –2.92 –4.37 –5.74 –6.97 –8.03 –8.88 –9.48 –9.83 B  9, r1   1 in % B 10, 2.00%  Discrete time/state spaces, numerical solution 7.14 6.94 6.57 6.04 5.33 4.48 3.51 2.49 1.48 0.54 –0.28 –0.95 –1.46 –1.80 –1.99 Discrete time continuous state spaces 8.15 7.85 7.33 6.61 5.72 4.71 3.61 2.48 1.36 0.30 –0.66 –1.49 –2.15 –2.62 –2.89 Continuou s time/state spaces, Vasicek 10.33 9.91 9.18 8.18 6.95 5.54 4.03 2.48 0.95 –0.49 –1.79 –2.91 –3.81 –4.44 –4.80 We suppose here that at the beginning of the year we know the value of the interest rate in the previous year and that 10 year zero coupon bond is priced according to that value. This known value of the interest rate is written in the header, and we present examples for the two value r0  1.25% and r0  2.00% . Then we suppose that during the following year the value of the interest rate r1 appears to be as in the first column. At the end of the year we have the price of the 9 year bond and calculate the rate of return on 10 year rolling bonds by B  9, r1  B 10, r0   1 . We can see in Table 2 that the rates of return on 10 year rolling bond investment have the highest range of values for the Vasicek model, the lower for the first approximation and the lowest for the second approximation. It means that in our examples, the variability of bond investment rates is lower compared to the Vasicek model. However, at the same time we can see a regular behavior of returns for both approximations. If  takes lower values than 0.02 , then we get the rates on ten years rolling bond investment using approximations that are more similar to the rates calculated from the Vasicek model. References Boulier J–F, Huang S.J., and Taillard G. (2001).Optimal Management under Stochastic Interest Rates: the Case of a Protected Defined Contribution Pension Fund, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 28, 173–189. Cox J., Ingersoll J., Ross S. (1985).A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Econometrica 53, 385–408. 11 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Deelstra G., Grasselli M., and Koehl P–F. (2000).Optimal Investment Strategies in a CIR Framework, Journal of Applied Probability 37, 936–946. Duffie D., and Kan R. (1996).A Yield Factor Model of Interest Rates, Mathematical Finance 6, 379–406. Hull J., White A. (1990).Pricing Interest–Rate Derivative Securities, The Review of Financial Studies 3, 573–592. Oksendal B. (1995).Stochastic Differential Equations, Springer–Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Tauchen G. (1986).Finite–State Markov Chain Approximation to Univariate and Vector Autoregressions, Economic Letters, 20, (1986), 177–181. Tauchen G., Hussey R. (1991).Quadrature–Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models, Econometrica, Vol. 59, No. 2 (Mar. 1991), 371–396. Vasicek O. (1977).An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure, Journal of Financial Economics 5, 177–188. Wilkie A.D. (1986).A Stochastic Investment Model for Actuarial Use, Transactions of the Faculty of Actuaries 39, 341–403. Wilkie A.D. (1995).More on a Stochastic Investment Model for Actuarial Use, British Actuarial Journal 1, no. 5:777–964. 12 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1578 Title A name given to the resource A Model for Discrete Time/Space Approximation of the Vasicek Model for the Interest Rate Author Author GAVRANOVIĆ, Nedim Abstract A summary of the resource. In this paper we present the mathematical model for the real interest rate as an autoregressive discrete time and discrete state space process. The process is an approximation of Vasicek continuous time–space autoregressive process presented in Vasicek (1977). We choose Vasicek model for interest rate for developing bond prices as the one which is used in the analysis of optimal asset allocation problems by many authors. It is a type of one factor short rate model where interest rate movements are driven by one source of market risk. Our model can be used in many applications when modelling an interest rate mathematically or for making simulations on the computer. The shortcoming of Vasicek model is the positive probability of the negative value of interest rate. Due to mean reverting characteristic of the interest rate, even for the negative value of real interest rate, there will be a certain demand for both traditional and index–linked bonds. It is possible to derive the bond market model using the interest rate which does not allow the negative values of the interest rate, for example Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model (Cox et al (1985)). Although CIR model may be more appropriate, and the one and ten years rolling bonds market model can be developed using CIR model, it would be also computationally more demanding. In our model we assume that the discrete time interval is one year. We will show below the technique to transform the continuous time Vasicek process into a discrete time one. We assume that the interest rate can take a finite number of values in a reasonable range. As the Vasicek process transformed into discrete time is still a continuous state space process we use the technique from Tauchen and Hussey (1991) and as a result we get a process with discrete time–state space. Once we obtain a discrete time–state process for real interest rate we can model bond prices as the expected present value of future incomes from the bond. As we assume a zero coupon bond, it means that the bond price is expected present value of one money unit that will be due in n years’ time, where n years is the bond duration. Following the Vasicek approach, we can also introduce a market price of risk. As a final result we get the approximation of the bond market. Keywords: Discrete Time, the Vasicek Model, Interest Rate. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/958cefa59482de703da966fd6edf2c89.pdf aa32fff07c792dc48ba2ca62f9798353 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Forecasting Car Demand with Different Methods Yasin Galip Gençer Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey ygalipgencer@yahoo.com The purpose of this study is to propose a sales forecast model for car dealers. The scope of the research is a case study on a Hyundai dealer in Yalova city, Turkey. Actual time series data of 48 months on Onurlu Hyundai car dealer’s aggregate sales figures between January 2007 and December 2010 were used as fit-set data. The same data between January 2011 and December 2012 were used as ex-ante data to calculate the accuracy of the methods. In order to increase the accuracy of measurement models, the company’s history data was examined 24 times. In the study, MS Office Excel and Statgraphics Centurion softwares were used to forecast demand and calculate the forecast errors with different quantitative methods. Four different time series forecasting methods were applied to the data he the result of each one was considered separately for the same period lengths. These were Random Walk, Simple Exponential Smoothing Method, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method, and ARIMA Method. Comparison of the models’ predictions to actual sales data suggested reasonable results to compare the accuracy of all four methods. Also, the forecasting accuracy was tested separately for each forecast horizon length from 1 to 12 months to select the best method. For each particular forecast horizon, the specific figures by different error methods were calculated. On the other hand, 5 types of error measurement scales were used to compare the forecasting accuracy of the methods. These error metrics were Percentage of Errors, MAPE, wMAPE, wMSE, and Theil’s U2 which are explained in details within the paper. Ultimately, the best results came from Exponential Smoothing methods, namely from Holt’s Method. For the company, each period is a different issue and the results of 1-period ahead forecasts cannot be averaged with 2 and 3 period ahead forecasts. So, in 1 period ahead forecasts, from the five error measurement method, 2 offered Simple Exponential Smoothing, 2 offered Holt’s Exponential Smoothing and 1 offered ARIMA as the best forecasting method. In 2, 4, 5, 6 period ahead forecasts, the 3 of 5 error calculation methods offered Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method. In 3, 7, 12 period ahead forecasts, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method gave the smallest error figures in four error measurement methods. In 11 period ahead forecasts, all error measurement methods gave their minimum by Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method. In 8, 9, 10 period ahead forecasts, the 4 of 5 error measurement methods had the least scores by ARIMA model. Keywords: Forecasting Methods, Sales Forecast, Car Dealership, Turkey. 273 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1614 Title A name given to the resource Forecasting Car Demand with Different Methods Author Author GALIP GENCER, Yasin Abstract A summary of the resource. The purpose of this study is to propose a sales forecast model for car dealers. The scope of the research is a case study on a Hyundai dealer in Yalova city, Turkey. Actual time series data of 48 months on Onurlu Hyundai car dealer’s aggregate sales figures between January 2007 and December 2010 were used as fit-set data. The same data between January 2011 and December 2012 were used as ex-ante data to calculate the accuracy of the methods. In order to increase the accuracy of measurement models, the company’s history data was examined 24 times. In the study, MS Office Excel and Statgraphics Centurion softwares were used to forecast demand and calculate the forecast errors with different quantitative methods. Four different time series forecasting methods were applied to the data he the result of each one was considered separately for the same period lengths. These were Random Walk, Simple Exponential Smoothing Method, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method, and ARIMA Method. Comparison of the models’ predictions to actual sales data suggested reasonable results to compare the accuracy of all four methods. Also, the forecasting accuracy was tested separately for each forecast horizon length from 1 to 12 months to select the best method. For each particular forecast horizon, the specific figures by different error methods were calculated. On the other hand, 5 types of error measurement scales were used to compare the forecasting accuracy of the methods. These error metrics were Percentage of Errors, MAPE, wMAPE, wMSE, and Theil’s U2 which are explained in details within the paper. Ultimately, the best results came from Exponential Smoothing methods, namely from Holt’s Method. For the company, each period is a different issue and the results of 1-period ahead forecasts cannot be averaged with 2 and 3 period ahead forecasts. So, in 1 period ahead forecasts, from the five error measurement method, 2 offered Simple Exponential Smoothing, 2 offered Holt’s Exponential Smoothing and 1 offered ARIMA as the best forecasting method. In 2, 4, 5, 6 period ahead forecasts, the 3 of 5 error calculation methods offered Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method. In 3, 7, 12 period ahead forecasts, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method gave the smallest error figures in four error measurement methods. In 11 period ahead forecasts, all error measurement methods gave their minimum by Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method. In 8, 9, 10 period ahead forecasts, the 4 of 5 error measurement methods had the least scores by ARIMA model. Keywords: Forecasting Methods, Sales Forecast, Car Dealership, Turkey. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564