88 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/31ab889c8926473947fcc11c8a4f3bb4.pdf 36a205a53358663839d102576a94ffd2 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kılıç, S., Kendirli, H. Ç. (2005). Endüstriyel pazarlarda ilişkisel pazarlamanın yeni ekonomideki yeri ve önemi. Üçüncü Sektör Kooperatifçilik Dergisi, 148 (2). ss: 20-36 Oktay, E., Balkanlı, A. ve Salepçioğlu, A.(2004) Bilgi Toplumunda Yeni Ekonomi ve Dönüşüm Stratejileri, http://iibf.ogu.edu.tr/kongre/bildiriler/04-02.pdf. Öztürk, L.(2005), Türkiye’de Dijital Eşitsizlik: TÜBİTAK –BİLTEN Anketleri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı :24, S.11-131. Pau, F. L.(2002) The Communications and İnformation Economy: issues, tarrifs and economics research areas. Journal of Economic Dynamics& Control, 26:1651-1675. Sabuncuoğlu, A., Vural, B. A.(2008). Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri ve Ütopyan Bakış Açısı. Selçuk Üniversitesi İletişim Dergisi, Cilt:5, Sayı: 3, 5-19, Temmuz. Şahin, L., Çetin, B. I., Yıldırım, K. (2010). Bilişim Teknolojilerindeki Gelişmelerin İşletmelerin Strateji ve Maliyetleri Üzerine Etkileri. www.iudergi.com/tr/index.php/sosyalsiyaset/article/view/98. Toffler A.(1970), Future Shock, A Bantom Book, United States America. Yeloğlu, H. O.(2004). Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Değişkenleri: Türkiye ve OECD Karşılaştırmaları, 3. Ulusal Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kariyeri, Eskişehir. www. tuik. gov.tr. (18.08.2010), Haber Bülten, Sayı : 148 http://www.tuik.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?tb_id=25&ust_id=8: 26.04.2012 http://www.wrc.org.uk/includes/documents/cm_docs/2011/s/1_statistics_about_women_in_th e_uk_2009_25_5_10_latest_nn_sr1.doc.:26.04.2012. unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/.../unpan023829.pdf. 26.04.2012. Walter W. Powell and Kaisa Snellman (2004) “The knowledge economy”, Annu. Rev. Sociol. 30:199–220 John Houghton and Peter Sheehan (2000). “A Primer on the Knowledge Economy” Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University Economic Costs And Benefits Of The Eu Enlargement: The Impact On The Eu And Seec’s Kurtagić Haris, Nuroglu Elif International University of Sarajevo, Sarajevo, B&H E-mails: kurtagic.h@hotmail.com,enuroglu@ius.edu.ba Abstract The South-eastern enlargement of the European Union will be the sixth enlargement since establishing the European Community in 1957. The research uses the Gravity model, and measures the factors that have an influence on trade. The Gravity model involves coefficients 186 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo that explain the pattern of trade with GDP, geographical distance, population, and several dummy variables. Trade that is explained by Gravity model includes two regions, EU-15 (inclusive Bulgaria and Romania) and SEEC’s. The reason why Bulgaria and Romania are included, even if they are part of the SEEC’s, is to acquire as accurate pattern of trade as possible. Comparing the data from 2010, the gravity model describes trade flows between 23 countries. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze trade flows between two regions. Taking into consideration the costs of enlargement, this research examines the effects of the trade, its significance on the development of SEEC’s after enlargement, well-being of countries that are not part of the EU, as well as it offers a solution for the South-east European countries. Therefore, the solution that this research proposes is a model based on creation of the Balkan Union. Keywords: EU-Enlargement, Gravity model, South-eastern Europe, European union, Trade flows. 1.INTRODUCTION The South-eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) – the sixth since 1973 – is a huge test for the EU, as well as for the applicant countries. The European Union consists of 27 members. Besides incumbent members, there are candidates, as well as potential candidates. Inclusive candidates: Croatia, Macedonia (FYR), Montenegro, Iceland, Serbia and Turkey, the potential candidates will comprise the next enlargement of 9 countries. The potential candidates are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. This enlargement will increase the EU area by 25%, the number of population by 19%, and absolute GDP by 5%. Although, the exact time pattern of accession is not clear yet, the European Commission plans to start with a group of 3 states that consist of Croatia, Montenegro and Iceland. Turkey is not sure yet, whether to access the Union or not, because the country has strong economy, and many analytics think that joining the Union would hurt Turkish economy. On the other hand, the applicant countries of South-eastern Europe are relatively poor countries with a GDP per capita below the EU average. Hence, the average GDP per capita of nine countries is $10,490 that would be 3 times lower compared to EU-27 or 4 times lower compared to EU-15. Similar to the third EU enlargement, the next enlargement would be a new challenge for the EU countries, as the integration of poor with rich countries increases heterogeneity. The South-east European countries will enter the EU on the basis of the Treaty of Accession. Once they access the EU, the members are part of a union and a single market. One union of 27 countries with over 501 million consumers, which have access to a single market, is of huge importance for customers. Construction of a single market of the European Union has brought the new impact, and improved the emergence of a common EU policy such as competition policy. The EU constantly works on improvement of common policies, especially, on a common market. Those policies have gained great importance that increases over time. The policies are important, since they strengthen mutual trade, improve the quality of products and services, then they expand a single market, and the most important thing is that they reduce trade barriers and increase positive effects of the common market. As a result, the EU policies preserve the good functioning of market, and the European Commission prevents or corrects 187 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the non-competitive behaviour of companies. When it comes to South-east European countries (SEEC’s), the fact is that its consumers enjoy a freedom of choice that is diversified by almost the same prices, lower quality and a fewer innovations comparing to the EU standards. The competition is present between SEEC’s, but they are not competitive to the EU single market. Those companies cannot achieve scale of economies or competitive advantages as the EU countries do. Thus, this research shows economic costs and benefits that the EU enlargement brings to SEEC’s. It presents gains from trade for both, the European Union and South-east European Countries. This paper looks at the economic costs and benefits of the enlargement of the EU, as well as the impact that the enlargement would bring to the Southeast European countries. 2.MAASTRICHT TREATY, EUROPEAN UNION, SINGLE MARKET, AND SINGLE CURRENCY – EURO In order to improve trade, six countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands) have adopted first four regulations for a common market in agriculture, finance and regulation of governing competition. On 1 January 1973, Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom joined the EU. Greece became the 10th member of the EU in 1981 and Spain and Portugal join Union five years later. The situation was stable until the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, so the European Economic Community (EEC) member states were negotiating over a new treaty at Maastricht in December 1991. However, it included intergovernmental cooperation in foreign policy and internal security that resulted in the Maastricht Treaty, which created European Union on 1 November 1993. The collapse of communism throughout Central and Eastern Europe has connected Europeans. As a result of that, in 1993 the Single Market was completed with freedom of movement of goods, services, people and money. Three new members came in 1995, Austria, Finland and Sweden. The euro, Europe’s single currency replaced the old currencies on 1 January 2002, when 12 EU Member States adopted it as their official currency, creating the euro zone. The euro zone makes life easier for business, consumers and travellers. On 1 May 2004, 10 countries got memberships in the EU: the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia, while Bulgaria and Romania on 1 January 2007. Today, the EU has 27 member states. Enlargement to 27 was one of the most important steps in the history of European integration. 12 new countries in the EU, not only have expanded geographical size and population, but they have created an end for splitting the continent into two since 1945. As the idea of the EU says, democratic freedom was settled in 12 new member states. The creation of the single market gave European Union countries a strong incentive to liberalize previously protected monopolistic markets. Within the Union, Member States have removed all tariffs on trade, while having unified tariffs on imports from outside the EU. It means that no matter which country is the importer, the tariff paid on products is the same, and once customs procedures are completed, goods can be shipped throughout the EU without additional duties. In accordance to rules and regulations of the European Union, member of the Union should be guaranteed: 188 Price stability, Stability of currency, Limitations of public debt, 60% of GDP, Economic balance with limited deficit of national budget, Investment stability, in sense of level of long-run interest rates, and �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo - 3% of GDP. The European Union is formed on the principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law, principles that are common to the Member States. The EU has a motto, ‘United in diversity’, and May 9 is commemorated each year as Europe Day. By singing the Treaty of Rome in 1957, the EU members promised to abolish barriers to trade freely across the European continent. In Tupy (2003), the benefits of free movement of goods are seen as major benefits of consumers. Generally, the European Union has integrated the market, and established common rules. Those rules are implemented through technical standards of consumer protection, environmental standards, competition policy, and fairness in the workplace (Tupy, 2003, p. 6). Thus, for the SEEC’s the common market could be a place for integration of every aspect of the state. Once the boarders are opened to flow of goods and capital, people would look at historic events less, and they will go for personal interest. 3.EUROPEAN UNION TODAY Today, European Union exists as a union that aims to increase economic and political circumstances. The logic behind that is to deliver a peace, stability, and prosperity, to help improve living standards, promote a single currency that will build a single market, where people, goods, services and capital could move within the European Union. It is not a government or state or international organization, but a novel entity which respects human rights. Many countries, a huge single market, and single currency provide many benefits, but for whom? As a single market, the EU is a major world trading power. The single market aims at putting down barriers and simplifying rules to enable everyone in the EU to take advantage of the opportunities given to them by having access to 27 countries and 501 million people. Looking from economics perspective, small countries from Europe cannot achieve growth and prosperity without the EU. Therefore, in order to compete on the world stage and achieve economies of scale, the European countries need a broader base, and the European single market provides it. The single market is one of the European Union’s greatest achievements. Restrictions on trade and free competition between member countries have gradually been eliminated; therefore, the whole system helps standards of living to rise. Within the EU, all border controls on goods have been eliminated, together with customs controls on people, but the police still conduct random checks as part of the fight against crime and drugs. When it comes to tax barriers, then tax barriers have been reduced by partially aligning national Value Added Tax rates, which must be agreed by the EU member states. There is also the EU’s competition policy that tries to ensure that within the European single market competition is not only free but also fair. Therefore, in the EU single market there is no cartel, or unfair monopoly. The European Union was created to succeed in political objectives, through achieving economic cooperation. In modern terms, people call it as an “area of freedom, security and justice”, where every citizen has an equal justice and protection by the law. The European Commission represents the EU in international negotiations at the World Trade Organizations (WTO). Right now, the EU would like to put more emphasis on quality of food, precautionary principle (“better safe than sorry”) and animal welfare. 189 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The EU has regional policy stating that European Funds should be used to improve development in regions that are lagging behind, to increase standard of living in areas that are in decline, to help young people and the long-term unemployed find work. One important and interesting thing is that European Funds are also allocating funds to farming and to lessfavoured rural areas. In order to fund its policies, the European Union has an annual budget that in 2010 amounted to more than € 140 billion. The budget is financed from the EU’s own resources that cannot exceed 1.23 % of the total gross national income of all the member states (Fontaine, 2010, p. 35). The resources are mainly collected from: - Customs duties on products imported into the EU, A percentage of the value added tax (VAT) levied on goods and services throughout the EU, and Contributions from the member states, reflecting the wealth of each country. The European Union has more influence on the world stage when it speaks with a single voice in international affairs such as trade negotiations. 4.European Enlargement On January 1, 2007, the EU recorded the fifth enlargement. Bulgaria and Romania became new members of the EU. Before that, on May 1, 2004 the EU enlarged from 15 to 25 member countries. In the period from 1990 to 1999, the EU invested more than $85 billion to support the new Member States during the accession process (Delegation of the European Union to the United States of America, 2011, p. 21). Every new enlargement of the European Union is seen as a historic step toward long-term objectives of the union. Thus, any country that respects liberty, democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law is qualified to apply for EU membership. Applying for the EU membership is the start of a long and rigorous process. Once a country submits an application to the Council of the EU, it activates a sequence of EU procedures that may, or may not, result in the country being invited to become a member. After applying for membership, the process starts with accomplishing the Copenhagen Criteria. There are not many criteria, but, in essence, every country has to work on it, since the criteria are detailed. Fontaine (2010) mentions these criteria as follows: - Institutions that provides high democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities. Strong market economy and the ability to cope with threats and pressure within the Union. Ability to take on the obligations of membership, accomplishing the aims of the Union (Fontaine, 2010, p. 16). Once the Council unanimously agrees to begin accession negotiations, discussions may be formally opened. The negotiation has got 35 separate policy areas that are called “chapters”, and each candidate country proceeds separately from one stage of the process to next. Each stage must satisfy all conditions, and then the candidate country could move on. Thank to this process, the prospect of accession acts as a powerful incentive for reform, providing simultaneously benefits to the EU and to its acceding members. 190 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A candidate country is one whose EU membership application has been accepted by all relevant EU institutions, allowing it to begin accession negotiations. Once negotiations are concluded to the desired level for both sides, a comprehensive Draft Accession Treaty is submitted for approval by the Council of the EU, the European Commission, and the European Parliament. After the treaty is approved, it is signed by the candidate country and the representatives of all EU Member States. Afterward, all Member States and the candidate get the treaty for ratification. Once the ratification process is done, the treaty enters into force on its scheduled date, and the candidate country becomes an EU Member State. 5.Enlargement of the South-eastern Europe The next enlargement in the EU is related to Western Balkan region. The structure and procedures to be applied on the Western Balkan region are the same as it was for the former candidates. A first significant step in this process is the establishment of European partnership with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia. It would be a very important factor that assists the Western Balkan states in preparing for membership within rational framework and in developing action plans with timetables of reforms. “The main instrument that created by the European Union for Balkan integration is the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP), launched in 2000, that was established as a long process in order to establish development of the Western Balkans both in terms of political effort and financial and human resources” (Montanari, 2005, p. 59). The aim of the SAP is to create conditions that alike to the EU. Thus, the candidates work on preparation for future EU standards. When it comes to SEEC’s enlargement, conflicts can arise between European Union members as a result from its redistribution effects. EU members observe SEEC’s as a geographical area for expanding single market that can import more goods and services from the current EU members. Once the union is enlarged, there is a new distribution of income that can create lower income for some of the EU 27. That is not the only threat for EU 27, high unemployment is another one. Taking this fact into consideration, when more immigration happens, the neighbouring countries of the SEEC’s might be affected more. First targets are Slovenia and Hungary as very close countries to candidate of the EU. Previous five enlargements are observed if they were Pareto efficient for all member states and the candidate states, and evidence suggests that enlargements were not Pareto efficient in every enlargement round (Schneider T. P., 2007, p. 570). Thus, as Schneider (2007) states, the next enlargement is going to be very complicated from aspects of EU redistribution and from the free movement of labour. Thus, “the EU Eastern enlargement will adversely affect labourintensive and low-tech sectors in the EU member countries but will stimulate growth of skillintensive service industries and some capital-intensive and high-tech industries in Western Europe” (Schneider T. P., 2007, p. 572). Table 1 Basic Socioeconomic Indicators for South-eastern Europe (2010) Population (millions) 191 Per capita GDP (current US$) Unemployment 2009 (percent of labour force) �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Montenegro Romania Serbia 3.20 3.76 7.54 4.42 1.82 2.06 0.63 21.44 7.29 3,678 4,409 6,325 13,754 3,059 4,460 6,510 7,538 5,269 6.8 9.1 45.4 32.2 19.1 6.9 16.6 Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicator. Monstat, Department of statistics of labour market, life conditions, social services and household consumption. As a result, the candidate countries would have an incentive to export workers, rather than to attract them. Table 1 shows the unemployment rate, population and GDP per capita for SEEC’s from 2010. From the table it is obvious that for relatively slow countries the unemployment rate is high. Kosovo has unemployment of 45.4%, but the real unemployment rate is around 25%, since the country has a problem with a gray economics. The other countries have acceptable rates, but still high that is a threat for labour migration and labour inflows in the EU. Two biggest countries of the SEEC’s became the EU members, and remaining 7 will bring 23 million new customers to the single market. If we take into account GDP’s of SEEC’s than it is obvious that states have relatively low ones, comparing to the EU15 (4 time lower), and EU-27 (3 time lower). Some of the candidate countries are economically weak, with high unemployment rate and low wages, and they will be ready to adapt to the system of free movement of labour. However, the Union could apply the potential limitations on the free movement of workers of new member. There was a case when the United Kingdom joined the Union in 1973. The state had to accept the limitations on the free movement of its workers within Belgium, France, Germany, and Luxembourg (Schneider T. P., 2007, p. 574). This clause could be used when accepting SEEC’s to the Union, where Austria, Slovenia, and Hungary might ask for limitations of free movements of these three countries’ workers in order to sign accession treaty. Within the EU, the gains from the enlargement could be redistributed from the either relative winners of enlargement (members of the Union or the candidates) to the relative losers of enlargement that can also be state from these two groups. When it comes to trade flows in 2010, than from Table 2 we see that Croatia is a main exporter to the EU-15 (BG+RO). The total import for the EU-15 (BG+RO) is 32.42% of total of the SEEC’s. On the other hand, Croatia is the leader in imports, as well. The total export from the EU (BG+RO) to Croatia is 39.32 of total of the SEEC’s exports. From that fact, it is not surprising that the country is the first to access the union. After enlargement the imports will be higher for each country, the members of the EU will export to SEEC’s and try to import less. Croatia and Serbia to some extent manage their resources properly, but the rest have to increase an export that is almost 40% of overall exports to SEEC’s. 192 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 2 EU-15 + BG and RO trade with South-eastern Europe by Country (2010) EU-15+BG and RO Imports Percentage of Imports from Million US$ SEEC’s Croatia Serbia Macedonia Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania Montenegro EU-15+BG and RO Exports Percentage of Exports to Million US$ SEEC’s 4,149 3,867 1,738 32.42 30.22 13.59 9,069 6,414 2,081 39.32 27.81 9.03 1,732 1,157 152 13.53 9.04 1.19 2,557 2,442 500 11.09 10.59 2.17 6.Strategy The strategy of the EU for creating sustainable growth and jobs encourages innovation within businesses and investment in people that can design a knowledge-based society. Not only that, but the idea is to attract more people into employment, and keep them in work longer as life expectancy rises. Besides, the adaptability of workers and enterprises, provide better education and skills, globalization and mobility would increase the well-being of the society. By 2020, the EU aims to have accomplished the following targets: - 75 % of the population aged 20-64 should be employed, 3 % of the EU’s GDP should be invested in R&D, The “20/20/20” targets in terms of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy production, and energy efficiency should be met. The share of school dropouts should be under 10 % and at least 40 % of the population between the ages of 30 and 34 should have a degree of diploma. 20 million fewer people should be living below the poverty line (Delegation of the European Union to the United States of America, 2011, p. 38). In order to accomplish the objectives, the EU adopted a proposal to re-focus R&D and innovation policy on major challenges; enhance the quality and attractiveness of Europe’s higher education system; deliver sustainable economic and social benefits from a Digital Single Market; enable the EU’s industrial base to become more competitive, promote entrepreneurship, and develop new skills for workers; and ensure economic, social and territorial cohesion by helping the poor and socially excluded. 193 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 7.COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE SOUTH-EASTERN ENLARGEMENT 7.1.The Overall Economic Impact of the Enlargement Taking into account the economic costs of enlargement, as well as the distribution of gain among incumbent Member States, we should consider the broader benefits and costs for the Union’s economy that would take place after the enlargement. The countries of the last EU enlargement were highly welcomed in the EU alliance because they belong to those of the developed countries in the EU, and, hence, did not only cost nothing, but contributed to the EU budget with significant amount. In a case of the Southeastern enlargement, the EU incumbents are firstly concerned about the costs, rather than the possible benefits. Typically, this enlargement would enable consumers and companies to arrange their businesses more efficiently, so that there would be higher output and income. Taking into consideration the costs of enlargement the question is how the distribution of gains is shared among the EU members. Those countries that have strong trade relations with the SEEC’s will benefit. The European enlargement process is by no means a win-win project, but relatively unpredictable condition that creates both winners and losers. Due to the huge wage-gap between East and West sides of Europe, there might be a migration wave from East to the West, as a result of full involvement of East side of Europe in the single market. On the other side, there are almost certain gains for some new members. Thus, the incumbent members prolong the acceptance of those candidates. One obvious case is Turkey. The country has applied for the European Union, and almost 17 years later in 2004, the EU finally decided to open accession negotiations. This news was a real shock for almost each member of the Union. That was in the period when Turkey was becoming stronger in its economy. The country was showing signals of real and healthy economy. Thus, many EU states appeared unwilling to accept Turkey to the European club. Immediately, some of them emphasized that the applicant would have to accept few exceptions from the common policies. Germany asked for permanent restrictions on the free movement of labour while France and other members of the EU called for refusing an allocation of agriculture subsidies to Turkish farmers (Schneider C. J., 2007, p. 85). Thus, from the case of Turkey, it is obvious that EU members are only looking for distribution of gains. Current members will question enlargement if a new state is to decrease the gains. In this context, economic integration with the European Union is a challenging issue. Official unemployment rates are very high, while “unofficial” estimates of unemployment that include the large gray economy could be lower for 20%. Thus, it is obvious that SEEC’s will benefit from the enlargement. They can export workers to neighbouring countries, even they can increase net trade, but the costs will be imposed on the current members of the EU. Table 3 EU-15 Countries’ Imports + BG and RO from South-eastern Europe (2010) Country 194 Million US$ Percentage of the EU total imports from the SEEC’s �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Italy Germany Austria Greece Romania Spain France Netherlands United Kingdom Bulgaria Belgium Sweden Denmark Portugal Finland Ireland Luxembourg Total 4,426 3,047 1,680 744 488 411 396 378 344 338 267 106 60 41 27 23 11 34.61 23.83 13.14 5.82 3.82 3.21 3.10 2.96 2.69 2.64 2.09 0.83 0.47 0.32 0.21 0.18 0.09 12,787 Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics. When it comes to patterns of trade in the past few years, the EU trade with the South-eastern Europe has been in surplus; expressed in U.S. dollars. The largest trading partner of the SEEC’s is Italy, which absorbs 43 percent of EU imports from the region and accounts for 33 percent of the exports (Montanari, 2005, p. 7). This suggests that geographical distance plays a considerable role in determining trade patterns. Table 3 shows that in 2010 Italy accounts for 34.61% of total imports from SEEC’s to EU-15 (BG+RO). That is the main reason why SEEC’s trade mostly with their neighbouring partners. Behind Italy are Germany, Austria, Greece and Romania. It shows that distance between capitals plays considerable role in international trade. Countries that are away from the SEEC’s take account of around 10% of total imports. 7.2.The Costs of Enlargement When it comes to costs of the enlargement, then the most significant ones are: the costs for public finances, the costs of labour market disruption, and the costs of wage competition (Grabbe, 2001, p. 33). On the other hand, we have to take into account costs of the expansion of membership as well. It means that the EU bureaucratic machinery is likely to grow to be unmanageable. There is the added cost of preparing translations of all EU documents in language of member state. However, the cost of preparing is in second place, behind the reaching decisions. Reaching decisions on a unanimous or qualified-majority basis is likely to become more difficult (Richard E. Baldwin, 1997, p. 172). South-eastern countries have problems in reaching decisions in their parliaments, and accession to the EU would make things worse, since the new members would, very often, go for personal feelings, rather than for well-being of the society. Voting prolong, and not reaching decision on time, would increase the costs of bringing people to the parliament, and most important is the time spent while new regulations could have already taken place. 195 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Nowadays, the situation of Croatia and its accession to the European Union is related to neighbouring countries. Many analysts of macroeconomic issues warn saying that if Croatia enters the EU; many mechanisms will change, especially for Bosnia and Herzegovina and its exports and imports, because the EU asks for high criteria of product quality. As a country with cheaper labour, Bosnia is going to be a place where Croatia produces licensed products that are expensive to be produced in the EU. There are Croatian media, who speak about negative consequences of accession to the EU. If Croatia joins the Union, it would become small, political and economical unessential province inside the European giant countries (R.I., 2012). The European Union is not a single country, but Union of different people and countries (big and small), where member states represent their own interests on European level better and more efficiently, then in a case they would, in today’s globalized world, without the Union. Table 4 EU-15 Countries’ Exports + BG and RO to South-eastern Europe (2010) Country Italy Germany Austria Bulgaria Greece Netherlands Romania France United Kingdom Belgium Spain Denmark Sweden Ireland Finland Portugal Luxembourg Total Million US$ Percentage of EU total exports from the SEEC’s 6,116 5,428 2,775 1389 1,344 1,332 1,120 904 785 568 548 254 191 149 109 32 15 26.52 23.54 12.03 6.02 5.83 5.78 4.86 3.92 3.40 2.46 2.38 1.10 0.83 0.65 0.47 0.14 0.07 23,059 Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics. Table 4 shows almost the same results as Table 3. Italy, with 26% is a leader in exports from SEEC’s, where Germany, Austria, Bulgaria and Greece come after. One half of the countries from the table have a total of 15% of overall exports that explains again importance of distance between capitals. 7.3. The Economic Benefits of Enlargement After enlargement, benefits will accumulate, not only to the member states of the Union, but also to us, individual citizens. One of the principles on which the EU is based is that it will 196 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo improve the welfare of its member states and their citizens. This process does not have appeal to the government of the member state which have initiated the accession process; it is also expected to have an influence on the citizens and their readiness to assist integration process. The main economic benefits after enlargement are the classical ones generated by integration processes. Thus, those benefits can be generated from expansion of the Single Market, strengthening of the Union’s position in global markets and catching up with EU living standards. When SEEC’s join the Union they will be passing from a free trade area for manufactured products to a single market. The major benefit is free movement of workers, which is a highly sensitive issue. Enlargement will be good for the European economy. Enlargement will add over million consumers to the single market that will create many new jobs in both the applicant countries and the incumbent member states. Looking from perspective of European companies, they are looking forward to seeing more states on the EU single market that would possibly reduce the risk of doing business in the other half of the continent. In the long-run, the applicant countries will need help from the EU in order to increase private investment that will meet the EU environment and transport standards. The main economic benefit of EU membership is a potential improvement in the investment climate of the Southeast European countries. When the SEEC’s join the EU, participation in the single market should involve the end of contingent protection (anti-dumping and safeguards). In1999, the total number of antidumping investigations opened was 86 (Nello, 2002, p. 296). It is obvious that some countries will be better-off and some worse-off. Bosnia can increase the sale of its domestic tobacco company`s products if it proves that the Croatian tobacco company is dumping in Bosnia (this case was speculated in media in 2010). The EU imposes environmental regulations that take into account environmental quality protection, production processes, and products (Tupy, 2003, p. 9). One of the significant benefits will be quality in the countries of South-eastern Europe. It will affect local producers, and decrease their profits, but more importantly, the customers will be better-off. Besides, citizens will enjoy higher air quality, water protection, pollution controls, and all other things that create negative externality. For instance, people from Zenica (Bosnia and Herzegovina) could have higher air quality, when Environmental Regulation Agency introduces pollution control to Metal company. 8.GRAVITY MODEL 8.1. Gravity Model of EU-15 (including Bulgaria and Romania) and SEEC’s The aim of this research is to analyze trade patterns between the EU and SEEC’s. Thus, the research devotes much time analyzing trade between the European Union and South-eastern Europe, and it uses one of the most popular models in International Economics – Gravity model. Therefore, it is attractive to evaluate whether there could be a potential for trade growth between the two groups. The answer to this question can be obtained by estimating a gravity model of trade. Such model as gravity is very often applied to research trade patterns between countries. The model that is used in this research is very similar to one that Montanari (2005) uses while explanating trade patterns. Gravity model describes bilateral trade patterns in accordance with socioeconomic and geographical characteristics of the 197 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo countries measured (Montanari, 2005, p. 60). The gravity model is used to measure bilateral trade flows between EU-15 and SEEC’s. The countries included in the analysis are divided into two groups. First group consists of the EU-15, while the other includes countries from the South-eastern Europe. Even if, Bulgaria and Romania are the members of the SEEC’s, the research uses them as the EU members, to get more precise results. EU-15 does not include Bulgaria and Romania, but EU-27 does, so we obtain a real potential of the SEEC’s only if we include two countries into the first group. Greece was a part of the EU-15, and, therefore, it counts in the first group of the model. This research uses the data as from 2010. Thus, there are separate indicators for Montenegro and Serbia. Due to lack of data, the analysis excludes Kosovo. The equation of the Gravity model is as follows: (1) : is the export flows from EU-15 countries (including Bulgaria and Romania) to SEEC’s. We take data for exports (2010) that are measured in current US Dollars, Millions. : represents the GDP of the exporting country expressed in current US Dollars, Millions. : is the GDP of the importer country expressed in current US Dollars, Millions. : is the distance between capitals of exporter and importer in kilometres. : is the dummy which has 1 if exporter and importer share a common border and 0 otherwise. : is the dummy variable which is 1 if exporter and importer countries use a common currency and 0 otherwise. : is a dummy variable which takes 1 for a specific importer and exporter country and is used to capture the effects of any political, historical or cultural event between two countries. : describes error term. Appendix A mentions data sources used in the model and explain the functions of the gravity model. The model says that trade increases if countries have the same border, or they use the same currency. In a case of signing a bilateral agreement, like CEFTA, the trade barriers decrease and countries trade more. 8.2.The Basic Gravity Model Table 5, which consists of 4 models, explains patterns of trade between the EU countries and SEEC’s. In the first model, GDP of exporter country seems to have a positive effect on trade flows and its coefficient of 1.06 shows that when GDP of exporter increases by 1%, its exports increases by 1.06%. Similar result is given for the importer, where the coefficient of 0.78 shows the increase in trade flows when GDP of importer increases by 1%. There is negative coefficient for the distance saying that when countries are further they trade less. In order to decrease the cost of transportation, those countries trade mostly with neighbouring 198 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo countries, and the model says that 1% increase in distance will decrease trade by 2.39%. Besides that, the model uses dummies such as common borders and currency. While common borders have a positive impact on trade with coefficient of 0.53, the common currency has a negative effect with -0.62. This negative dummy might be a result of not using Euro. Montenegro is the only one, who is a member of the Euro zone. The value of R2, 86%, shows that this model explains 86% of the variation in trade flows between the EU and SEEC’s. Table 5 Gravity Model: Regression Results Variable Model 1 lngdpexp 1.06 (0.07) 0.78 (0.11) -2.39 (0.18) 0.53 (0.35) -0.62 (0.30) lngdpimp lndist BOR CUR bilateral Model 2 Model 3 1.06 (0.07) 0.78 (0.11) -2.34 (0.20) 0.58 (0.36) -0.64 (0.30) 0.00 (0.00) expfix 1.06 (0.07) 0.89 (0.09) -2.52 (0.17) 1.06 (0.07) 0.76 (0.11) -2.33 (0.20) 0.58 (0.36) -0.74 (0.33) -0.01 (0.02) 0.04 (0.05) -11.54 3.36 0.86 0.81 252.13 273.05 101 cons -11.30 (3.28) -11.72 (3.35) 0.00 (0.02) -0.01 (0.05) -13.08 (3.07) R2 RMSE AIC BIC N 0.86 0.81 249.31 265.00 101 0.86 0.81 250.81 269.11 101 0.85 0.84 255.99 271.68 101 impfix Model 4 8.3.Bilateral Effects Model The equation used to estimate column 2 is: (2) where is a dummy variable which takes 1 for a specific importer and exporter country and is used to capture the effects of any political, historical or cultural event between two countries on their trade flows, and all other variables are the same as Equation 1. Second model has the same coefficient of GDP as the first one. Thus, if there is any increase in GDP of exporter and importer countries, the trade would also boost. In the second model, there is a slightly lower coefficient of distance, because the bilateral variable is included. The 199 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo coefficient of common borders says that trade increases if two countries share the same border. 8.4.Main Effects Model (Exporter and Importer Fixed Effects) The equation used to estimate Model 3 is: (3) where equals 1 whenever a country is exporting and 0 otherwise and equals 1 whenever a country is importing and 0 otherwise. These dummies might differ depending on the countries’ tendency to export and import. This model does not include dummies and bilateral effects variables, but it has exporter and importer fixed effects. In general, the model does not give a better picture; R2 is lower than the first and second models, and even, Akaike`s information criteria (AIC) are worse. 8.5.Main Effects Model with Dummies When we enlarge Model 3 with common border and common currency variables, the model becomes the following: (4) The model has a higher R2 with 86%. The distance has a negative coefficient as usual. The model says that neighbouring countries trade more with each other than other countries. The results show that trade increases with economic size, measured by GDP in our model while it decreases with distance between them. This kind of model could be very useful for analyzing international trade; it is seen in the straightforwardness of explanation of trade patterns that can be used to test the impact of new policy measures. 8.6.Results Measuring overall economic impact of EU-enlargement is almost impossible task given that there are problems of global economy, uncertainties, which could change the whole process. The main benefits of enlargement for incumbent countries are not economic, but rather they are related to stability and security. The economic benefits to the EU-27 will not be significant in the short-run, neither the costs. However, in the long-run the whole European economy will gain significantly from enlargement. Table 5 presents four different models, where each of them consists of various variables. Each model uses GDP of exporting and importing countries. By becoming a part of the single market, there would be increase in the outputs and the growth of imports and exports that lead to an increase in GDP. As a result, according to the results of our models, if SEEC’s access the union, GDP’s will become higher, trade will increase, and at the end export flows become larger. Therefore, households would benefit from the European enlargement and from the 200 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo removal of tariffs. Removal of tariffs would lead to reduction in import prices, and will affect the allocation of household income. The removal of trade barriers would have a clear impact on price setting. As a result, the scenario would be a reduction in prices. Conversely, the increased demand should be taken into account, together with the removal of trade tariffs, which at the end will provide a positive output. The European Union has to manage enlargement appropriately if it wants to gather all the potential benefits. Flourishing management depends on developing political strategy that is behaving in interest of enlargement as a way of gains for the public and for interest groups. Comparing previous enlargements and next ones, there are significant differences. For instance, Greece, Portugal and Spain became members of the EU before the single market and monetary union programs were implemented. Thus, they became members when the EU was a much less integrated and smaller market. Today, the EU economy is experienced and it has a faster growth trade than it was in time of accession period of Portugal and Spain. The main benefits of enlargement for the SEEC’s are not only economic, but they are more oriented to provide stability and security. The major risks are concerns of large migration flows, wage competition, and the costs to the EU’s budget. Results show that there is a room for trade to increase, especially, in neighbouring countries. SEEC’s would have to invest in new technology in order to be competitive for the EU single market. 9.POLICY SUGGESTIONS Yugoslavia was located in the South-eastern Europe, in the heart of the Balkan Peninsula. The heart connected two continents, Europe with Asia, and was the gate to the Black Sea. The country had resources and good geographical position to grow and become super power of Europe. Unfortunately, the country had not been unable to run resources properly. The economy of Yugoslavia was oriented toward agriculture, so the whole national prosperity depended on the development of agriculture. The character of Yugoslavia is seen in the fact that out of 24,849,425 hectares of the whole territory, 11,500,000 hectares, or 46 per cent, account for agriculture (Roucek, 1933, p. 414). The country produced hemp, cotton, hops, opium, tobacco, etc. All these, and many other products, were high quality. The important thing is that no single part of Yugoslavia produced all these products. The country consisted of 7 parts that are today independent countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Slovenia, and Serbia). Hence, each part of Yugoslavia was famous for the production of a particular good. Exports went mainly to France, Germany, and Switzerland. The interesting thing is that each province of Yugoslavia has its own special kinds of fruits. Different fruits and variety of foods and beverages are produced in a way that is traditional for every region of the country. Besides that, there were plenty of mineral resources such as coal, iron, copper, etc. Yugoslavia could, by its richness of iron, take a place as one of the leading countries in Europe. The main importers of Yugoslavian products were Italy (28.31%), Austria (17.68%), Germany (11.66%), Hungary (7.18 per cent), Greece (6.05%), etc. (Roucek, 1933, p. 420). The main products of exports were wood, cement, cereals, and ores. The economic situation of Yugoslavia gave a real situation of the country, the country`s potential, and prosperity. Today, the former parts of Yugoslavia need a stabilization process 201 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo that would bring them to previous conditions. It is obvious that countries need capital and investment in infrastructure. Taking all of these facts into consideration, a solution for the SEEC’s, among the one of the European Union, might be the creation of the Balkan Union. The union would consist of 7 countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia). In that case, the members of the Union would be oriented towards a kind of closed economy. They would trade more between each other, and try to decrease imports from countries out of the Balkan Union. The construction of the Balkan Union would look like the European Union. There would be institutions to regulate the union, but mainly, ones for culture, education, and trade. If each member specializes in production of particular goods and services, and achieves comparative advantage with economies of scale, then that product would be easy to sell, or to exchange for something else, of course from one of the Union members. The Union would need to have a supervisor. Currently, the only state that has incentives and interest to regulate these countries is Turkey. If all countries agreed, Turkey would be the supervisor and manager of the Union. Even more, as a state with high FDI in South-eastern Europe, Turkey will be responsible for infrastructure, growth and development of the Union. Developing countries, as “members” of the Balkan Union, must diversify their productive structure and strengthen domestic demand. People should buy more domestic products, and stop buying the similar foreign products, thinking foreign is better. Still, there are many foreign products that are better, but at least beverages and foods have to be bought from domestic producers. Today, the countries not only depend on agriculture and manufacturing, but on tourism. Thus, economic policy for each country should be taking advantages of potential, which they have. There are countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro that should be oriented towards tourism, specifically winter and summer tourism. Recently, Minister of Turkey, Rifat Sait has called for establishing of Balkan Parliament, where, besides Turkey, there would be Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia (Bojadžić, 2011). With headquarters in Izmir, the initiative of Turkey and its leading party, AK party, would welcome academics, NGO, politicians, journalists, writers, representatives of private sector, etc. who could invest money in development of Balkans. The idea might seem unachievable, where some countries could reject supervision of Turkey, but it is the only country that does not look at historical problems that occurred on the Balkans, and it wants to establish regular connections with each state from the Balkans. 10.CONCLUSION This study discusses economic costs and benefits of South-eastern enlargement of the European Union. The idea of the united Europe is not a recent idea. Thus, the research starts with brief overview of the idea of the European Union and its objectives. The purpose was to maintain a peaceful and prosperous life throughout Europe. At the beginning of the fifties in the last century, the EU has signed many treaties and brought new policies that would ensure a zone for free capital movement. Besides that, the Union had five enlargements and introduced a common currency. Creation of a single market, which today consists of 501 million of consumers, is to provide a better life for every citizen. 202 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Next enlargement is of the South-east European countries. After accession of the SEEC’s, the European Union will have more than 30 members, with diverse cultures, histories and languages. Can such a diverse union of nations create a common political “union”? The EU was a trial to unify Europe, but it is obvious that it is difficult, since it is impossible to connect Germany or Sweden with, let say, Mediterranean, and there is no surprise for the failure of Greece and Italy. Can citizens of the EU establish a sense of being European while deeply belonging to their country? In essence, they can, if incumbent members follow the example of the first European Community. The moral legitimacy of the European Community is based on compromise, while consolidating the peace between former enemies. It stayed within the principle that all members, large and small, had equivalent rights and respected minorities. Therefore, the next enlargement should bring equivalence to small countries, and more important, stable market. EU member states account for almost 1/3 of the entire global economy, so in that sense the common market is the preferable mean to the global market. The research uses the Gravity model to test the trade relations between EU-15 (inclusive Bulgaria and Romania) and SEEC’s. After adding dummy variables such as common borders and currency to the model, the results show that there is a space for growth of trade between them. Trade is positively affected by GDP of exporters and importers. Larger GDP means higher production and increased ability for trade. However, distance has negative effect, and in this model it decreases trade if country is far away from partner. On the other hand, common borders positively affect trade, so by diminishing trade barriers, quotas, and taxes countries could stimulate trade to grow. Since Montenegro is the only one who uses Euro, the currency seems to affect trade negatively, and this shows that if any of SEEC’s adopts Euro it would stimulate trade. Current situation of the EU shows that high unemployment is present in many EU countries, so the EU has to be focused on achieving growth and creating jobs. In order to make its economies more dynamic and increase social cohesion, Europe must invest more in research and innovation, education and training. Thus, President of the European Commission presented a strategy for next 10 years, which is called the Europe 2020 strategy. REFERENCES Bojadžić, J. (2011, November 29). Dnevni avaz. Retrieved November 30, 2011, from http://www.dnevniavaz.ba/vijesti/teme/67662-sta-se-krije-iza-inicijative-poslanika-rifatasaita-iz-izmira-erdoganova-partija-predlaze-osnivanje-parlamenta-balkana.html Borchardt, K.-D. (2010). The ABC of the European Union law. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Delegation of the European Union to the United States of America. (2011). The European Union: A Guide for Americans. . Washington: Delegation of the European Union to the United States of America. Fontaine, P. (2010). Europe in 12 lessons. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. Grabbe, H. (2001). Profiting from EU Enlargement. Centar for European Reform, 1-65. Montanari, M. (2005). EU Trade with the Balkans: Large Room for Growth? Eastern European Economics, 59-81. 203 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Nello, S. S. (2002). Preparing for Enlargement in the European Union: The Tensions between Economic and. International Political Science Review, 291-317. R.I. (2012, January 4). Index. Retrieved January 9, 2012, http://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/vesna-pusic-bez-cega-sve-ostajemo-kazemo-li-neeu/592030.aspx from Richard E. Baldwin, J. F. (1997). The Costs and Benefits of Eastern Enlargement: The Impact on the EU and Central Europe. Centre for Economic Policy Research, Center for Economic Studies, 125-176. Roucek, J. S. (1933). Resources of Yugoslavia. Economic Geography, 413-425. Schneider, C. J. (2007). Enlargement Processes and Distributional Conflicts: The Politics of Discriminatory. Public Choice, 85-102. Schneider, T. P. (2007). Discriminatory European Union Membership and the Redistribution of Enlargement Gains. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 568-587. Tupy, M. L. (2003). EU Enlargement: Costs, Benefits, and Strategies for Central and Eastern European Countries. Policy Analysis, 1-20. APPENDIX DATA AND VARIABLES USED FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE GRAVITY MODEL The reporting countries that are used for the analysis are the members of the EU-15 (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom). Since the Belgium and Romania are not parts of the EU-15, they are not included in the South-east European countries, but they are attached to the first group, the EU-15. There are six partner countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. The data GDP and population were taken from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators. First two figures are measured in current US Dollars, Millions. Bilateral trade flows, imports and exports, were taken from the IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics, year 2010. Thus, the reference year for estimating potential trade between the EU-15 + (BG and RO) and the South-east Europe is 2010. Distances between capital cities of the countries were taken from www.viamichelin.co.uk. The most used routes for transportation of goods by trucks and by ship (in case of Italy and its partner countries) are taken for analysis. Dummy variable BOR takes a value of 1 if country of EU-15 and its partner share a common border, 0 otherwise. Dummy variable CURR takes a value of 1 if country of EU-15 and its partner uses a common currency, 0 otherwise. 204 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1325 Title A name given to the resource Economic Costs And Benefits Of The Eu Enlargement: The Impact On The Eu And Seec’s Author Author Kurtagić , Haris Abstract A summary of the resource. The South-eastern enlargement of the European Union will be the sixth enlargement since establishing the European Community in 1957. The research uses the Gravity model, and measures the factors that have an influence on trade. The Gravity model involves coefficients that explain the pattern of trade with GDP, geographical distance, population, and several dummy variables. Trade that is explained by Gravity model includes two regions, EU-15 (inclusive Bulgaria and Romania) and SEEC’s. The reason why Bulgaria and Romania are included, even if they are part of the SEEC’s, is to acquire as accurate pattern of trade as possible. Comparing the data from 2010, the gravity model describes trade flows between 23 countries. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze trade flows between two regions. Taking into consideration the costs of enlargement, this research examines the effects of the trade, its significance on the development of SEEC’s after enlargement, well-being of countries that are not part of the EU, as well as it offers a solution for the South-east European countries. Therefore, the solution that this research proposes is a model based on creation of the Balkan Union. Keywords: EU-Enlargement, Gravity model, South-eastern Europe, European union, Trade flows. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/5e1b169a6834ba4e7c18b71fe9879525.pdf 3ffc4d676d2477b33bfe3665f6470f54 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Economic Crises and Its Impacts on International Road Transportation Sector between European Union and Turkey Ulviyye Aydın Gediz University, İzmir, Turkey ulaydin91@hotmail.com In 2008, when the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty had been continuing, the global financial crises had been perceived as an AngloSaxon recession early on, however it increased the problems significantly, which EU countries were already faced. So, serious problems arise in such countries, like UK, Ireland and Spain, where the share of financial services in national incomes was sufficiently high. As a result of global crises, loss of consumer confidence and decrease in the world trade volume forced also German economy-one of the biggest exporters of the world. The new members of EU, who realized its largest enlargement in 2004, have been affected negatively by the crises. The EU members, who were unprepared to crises, under the effects of lack of final decisions about the coordination of economic and financial policies in EU agreements, could not perform well in common “struggle” against crises. Although coordination provided by the actions of some EU member states leaders prevented the conclusion of crises with a disaster, but this could not stop low growth rates and high unemployment. All these negative developments deeply affected every sector of the EU economy, a logistics sector also, which has a key role to play in increasing the competitiveness of European industry in both the services and manufacturing sectors with about 7 million employments (in freight logistics). On the other hand, an economic crisis in the EU decreased its trade volume with Turkey. The EU is the Turkey’s first trade partner. But the reduction of the domestic demand in the EU naturally lowered the level of trade between them. Turkey’s import rate from the EU decreased from 40,8% in 2007 to 39,3% in 2010. Also in this period Turkey’s export to the EU declined from 56,8 % to 46,3%. These developments in foreign trade decreased a volume of international road freight transportation between the EU and Turkey also. Additionally, the EU’s protective policies such as permit and visa limitations narrows the trade strongly. 269 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The purpose of this paper is to describe the main reasons of negative changes in international road transportation sector between the European Union and Turkey in the light of economic crises and make suggestions to develop the bilateral sectoral relations on behalf of increasing trade and elimination of crisis’s impacts. The Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges’ and the International Road Transport Union’s data about the quantity of permits and TIR carnets will be used for evaluation of transport volumes between the EU and Turkey. Keywords: Enlargement, European Union, International Road Transportation, Global Economic Crises, Logistics, Permit, Trade, Turkey. 270 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1601 Title A name given to the resource Economic Crises and Its Impacts on International Road Transportation Sector between European Union and Turkey Author Author ULVIYYE, Aydin Abstract A summary of the resource. In 2008, when the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty had been continuing, the global financial crises had been perceived as an Anglo- Saxon recession early on, however it increased the problems significantly, which EU countries were already faced. So, serious problems arise in such countries, like UK, Ireland and Spain, where the share of financial services in national incomes was sufficiently high. As a result of global crises, loss of consumer confidence and decrease in the world trade volume forced also German economy-one of the biggest exporters of the world. The new members of EU, who realized its largest enlargement in 2004, have been affected negatively by the crises. The EU members, who were unprepared to crises, under the effects of lack of final decisions about the coordination of economic and financial policies in EU agreements, could not perform well in common “struggle” against crises. Although coordination provided by the actions of some EU member states leaders prevented the conclusion of crises with a disaster, but this could not stop low growth rates and high unemployment. All these negative developments deeply affected every sector of the EU economy, a logistics sector also, which has a key role to play in increasing the competitiveness of European industry in both the services and manufacturing sectors with about 7 million employments (in freight logistics). On the other hand, an economic crisis in the EU decreased its trade volume with Turkey. The EU is the Turkey’s first trade partner. But the reduction of the domestic demand in the EU naturally lowered the level of trade between them. Turkey’s import rate from the EU decreased from 40,8% in 2007 to 39,3% in 2010. Also in this period Turkey’s export to the EU declined from 56,8 % to 46,3%. These developments in foreign trade decreased a volume of international road freight transportation between the EU and Turkey also. Additionally, the EU’s protective policies such as permit and visa limitations narrows the trade strongly. The purpose of this paper is to describe the main reasons of negative changes in international road transportation sector between the European Union and Turkey in the light of economic crises and make suggestions to develop the bilateral sectoral relations on behalf of increasing trade and elimination of crisis’s impacts. The Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges’ and the International Road Transport Union’s data about the quantity of permits and TIR carnets will be used for evaluation of transport volumes between the EU and Turkey. Keywords: Enlargement, European Union, International Road Transportation, Global Economic Crises, Logistics, Permit, Trade, Turkey. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8d87bcb332d34e2aa465189f37ef0861.pdf 6dfc2b9d13178c24d0fbe638a6a02c8f PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Economic Crisis and Social Issues - The use of Islam by French politicians Farkhad Alimukhamedov Turgut Özal University, Ankara, Turkey falimukhamedov@turgutozal.edu.tr In our paper we aim to analyze how French parties use the rhetoric of social life problematiques during economic crisis and try to avoid direct responsability. Among the social problematiques we will focus on especially the issues relating to Islam as Muslims are among the most used rhetorics while economic crisis in Europe. According to the archives of Le Monde since the year 2000 the use of the term Islam is much higher than the use of the word Christianity and Judaism. The same applies to the use of the word Muslim which is higher than Christian or Jew. We find out the similar tendencies in Le Parisien, the journal which is mostly sold in France. Islam is mostly cited term among the religions which is unproportional to its presence in France. This shows that Islam overpasses purely religious aspects and includes more than other religions when it comes to its media visibility. French politicians use the different social problems in a critical situations. Islam is one of these easy scapegoats that is oftenly utilized by politicians in their difficulties. This shows that from one side Islam and Muslims are very weak in France which are unable to defend, but from the other part, it becomes a necessary tool for all parties to participate willingly or unwillingly on the debate related to Islam. Our work will be based on two steps: firstly, we focus on the main critical events related to Islam in France and analyze the positions of the main parties. Afterwards, we observe their approaches to Islam and compare their methods and outcomes. We believe that, economic difficulties could be resolved, but social impacts of the crisis may remain for the decades. Keywords: Economic Crisis, Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Europe. 112 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1518 Title A name given to the resource Economic Crisis and Social Issues - The use of Islam by French politicians Author Author ALIMUKHAMEDOV, Farkhad Abstract A summary of the resource. In our paper we aim to analyze how French parties use the rhetoric of social life problematiques during economic crisis and try to avoid direct responsability. Among the social problematiques we will focus on especially the issues relating to Islam as Muslims are among the most used rhetorics while economic crisis in Europe. According to the archives of Le Monde since the year 2000 the use of the term Islam is much higher than the use of the word Christianity and Judaism. The same applies to the use of the word Muslim which is higher than Christian or Jew. We find out the similar tendencies in Le Parisien, the journal which is mostly sold in France. Islam is mostly cited term among the religions which is unproportional to its presence in France. This shows that Islam overpasses purely religious aspects and includes more than other religions when it comes to its media visibility. French politicians use the different social problems in a critical situations. Islam is one of these easy scapegoats that is oftenly utilized by politicians in their difficulties. This shows that from one side Islam and Muslims are very weak in France which are unable to defend, but from the other part, it becomes a necessary tool for all parties to participate willingly or unwillingly on the debate related to Islam. Our work will be based on two steps: firstly, we focus on the main critical events related to Islam in France and analyze the positions of the main parties. Afterwards, we observe their approaches to Islam and compare their methods and outcomes. We believe that, economic difficulties could be resolved, but social impacts of the crisis may remain for the decades. Keywords: Economic Crisis, Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Europe. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/851eccb9a7dacd493c86b0904777b66f.pdf 62dd2d83921da991bdb1407d32f3195a PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Akten, M. & Akten, S. (2011). The sustainable concept of Tourism; Example of Sarıgöl 1. Symposium of National Sarıgöl country and values, Sarıgöl. Büyükyeğen, G. (2008). Edirne city center and it’s close environment. The evaluation of recreational resource values in the context of sustainability, Zonguldak Karaelmas University Institute of scierse, Department of land scape architecture, Master’s Thesis, Bartın. Gezici, F. (1998). The Impact of tourism actions fort he purpose of sustainable regional development. A comparative research on Turkey. ITU the Institute of Science, Departmentof urban and regional planning, Istanbul. Newman, P. & Kenworhy, J. (1999). Sustainability and cities; overcoming, automobile, Dependence. Oral, S. & Şenbük, U. (1996). Structural evaluation of tourist regions in terms of sustainable tourism. 19. World Town Planning Day, Colloqium proceedings, MSU Broadcast part of the city and regional planning, Istanbul. Tozar, T. (2006). Ecological Planning methods developed for sustinability of natural Resources, Master’s Thesis, Yildiz Technical University, Institute of science, Department of Urban and regional planning, Istanbul. ACTM- Aydın Culture & Tourism Magazine, 2011, 2, 40-48 Economic Dimension Of The Environmental Policies Applied In Turkey And Its Potential Effects On Sustainable Development Mevlüt Karabiçak, Serpil Ağcakaya Abstract The purpose of the paper is to analyse the economic dimension of environmental policies still being applied in Turkey and to research the potential effects of sustainable development. In 1987 Bruntland Report was published by UN World Commission on Environment and Development and attention on sustainable development was attracted. In the aforementioned report, against the ever deteriorating environmental problems, the necessities of establishing the vital bridge between environmental development and economic development and the sustainability of development are accepted. The first precaution coming to mind for preventing environmental destructions that causes crucial costs for national economies is the efficient and productive use of current resources and the establishment of an optimal equilibrium between current and future generations in terms of the use of resources. Being sensitive in terms of the principle of sustainable development in the formation of environmental policies is accepted to be an important approach for the prevention of environment. Although the sustainable development endeavours cause significant costs, it is observed that new policies are constantly formed in terms of environment. In the scope of the paper, the potential effects of environmental policies that aim to decrease the negative effects created by the destruction of environment and to turn the world into a more habitable area on sustainable development are analysed through national and international data. 243 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.INTRODUCTION The subject of environment is the most essential and common problem of the whole world. This matter to great extend originates to excessive usage of factors. Environmental destruction particularly, during th recent years has shown the gradual increase, so that the whole living beings or lifeless creatures have been negatively effected. In one hand the necessary expenditures to be mad efor protecting the living standarts and hence, stil to raise it more and on the other hand aiming that each of these expenditures not to cause the mentioned environmental destruction. The necessity of establishing a multi directioned balances in between the production and consumption stands as a reality. This phenomenon brings forth the mutual influence of the lifeless and living beings to the present agenda and so has continiously been increasing the economical costs of the environmental protections. This point meanwhile, determines the borderlines of the environmental sciences as well. The wide pronounciation of the term environment was first met in daily languages of the communities at early 1970’s. At first glance the term environment may be considered to ben an easily understandable concept but it’s very complicated structure shows itself when carefully examined. Environmental pollution has both productional and consumptional dimensions. During the formation of these two phases, many harmful effluents gets produced and do spread around. Unacceptably high levels of such effluents and their contaminating effects getting into the air, soil and water and polluting the underground. So, all these do cause the increased environmental destruction. This destruction shows itself sometimes as like desert, drought, erosions, poverty, impropriety, negligence and irresponsibility. Environmental problems, nowadays have essentially changed its nature and have rather gained a global dimensions by passing over the national borders. Reducing the costs and relieving the negative pressures upon the sustainable developments needs a new approach towards the matter. This new approach can only be provided by international, national and regional collaborations. This study will cover how and what kind of method should be applied for avoidance of negative environmental effects but not reducing the social welfare and sustainable development what probable costs will be faced to and how these can be possibly met. 2.CONCEPTIONAL FRAME Environmental science can be accepted as a branch investigating and studying the mutual effects amoung the living beings and their surroundings and so putting up the obtained results to discussions. Ecology and the economy by some means are the concepts with in eachother. Ecology aims to utilize less of factors for protection of environment. The economy, however, is aiming for a higher level developments for higher prosperities. Henceforth, such sustainable development forms thee common denominator of the coincidence between these two concepts. The Brutland report about “our common future” defines the sustainable development as, to meet todays, requirements with out benefitting from the possibilities being planned to meet requirements of the future generations. (Gönel 2010, p.275)Another view for sustainable development is that it need to benefit from protecting the ecological processes and life supporting systems by means of obtaining a continious use of ecosystems and the genuses (Ertürk Hasan 2009, p.397) By this definition the economical development target was focused 244 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo to the point succeding on the potential economical growth whilist protecting the benefitted natural capital stock. (Dağdeviren 2003, p.143.) Sustainable development doesn’t only aims to form an environment that would be clean, safer and livable but also deals with the view that it should be more stable, healthful, prosperous and with higher living standarts, which suits well to human being. (Gönel 2010, p.285) Therefore, the borderlines of sustainable development is overapping or completing with the environmental protection standarts it is therefore possible to qualify the sustainable development as an environmental confidant. This environmental confidant development has the potential capability of going over the environmental problems and solve. This potential, along with bringing up the new growth sources as productivity can a pronovelty (newness), new markets, security and stability, effective use and optimal distrubution of these sources. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/36/10/48060835.pdf). 3.ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AND THE PROCESS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE Environmental problems are as old as the history of human being. As the use of sources started to increase along with the industrial revolution, which has caused the increased environmental destruction since then. The first signs of pollution was noticed in England. One of the pollution are as in England were rivers. England, therefore has taken actions against all kinds of river pollution forms by the law passed in 1876 (Burows 1980, p.158) The first warning about the possible global heat rise due to CO2 gas was made by Swedish scientist Svante Ahrrenius in 1898 but wasn’t recognised as a serious one. (Karbuz, 2002, p.9) The first human death disastors took place in the town of Donora (Penn) in 1948 and the other one in London in 1952 had shown the necessity to take precautions against the pollutions. (Turkman 2000, p.36) Some scientists and thinkers have expressed their views about the possible great catastrophies along with the continued environmental destructions, which all were initiated by spoiling the natural structure by human race since 1960’s. Paul Erlich’s publication in 1968 named “population bomb” and Rachel Garson’s book of “silint spring” 1962 are example of the releavant problems. In 1968 Unesco called upon a conference “UN Biosphere Conference” by which, the first steps fort he ecologically sustainable development were taken. 1972 is another turning over point on this particular activities. A meeting was held in Stockholm with 114 participant countries. (Karbuz, 2002, p.9) The most important result obtained from this conference was the common approach shown by the participating countries of different regimes and development levels fort he point of environmental responsibilities. The markedly expressed principal idea at this conference was, tol ive in an environment that would most suit too human honour and good health (Ertürk, 2009, p.234) Another important result was “Mediterrenean action plan”, along with the warnings of environmental consciousness at Stockholm conference, 16 participiant mediterrenean countries have approved the action plan to save mediterrenean sea from the pollution (Görmez 2003, p.86-87) The worlds environment and the development comission was formed in 1983 under the chairmanship of GRO Harlem, the prime minister of Norway and had published a report with the topic of “Our common future” which had created a great interest. (Uslu, 1990, p.53) ((http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission) Fallowingly, a top meeting took place in Rio de Jenerio in 11.02.1992 where, the agende 21 of this meeting had consisted of 800 pages in 40 chapters. After this conference total of 165 countries signed in 1993 the “Biological Assortment or variety” agreement. In 1994, 150 countries signed “The climatic 245 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo changes environmental agreement” which led to the formation of United nations sustainable development commission. (Gönel, 2010, p.290) In 1997, Rio +5 conference was held with rather lesser attendance and not much of sufficient progress could be achieved on the above mentioned development. Again in 1997, the Kyoto protocol was found acceptable in Kyoto and was offered to the signitures in 1998 in New York, but somehow by the delays of USA, Russia and China could become effective on Feb 15,2005. The second top meeting for sustainable development was held in Johannesburg from Aug 26 to Sept. 4, 2005. More than 100 participations from the presidential or ministerial levels along with many civil public organizations and employer representatives was achieved. (Gönel, 2010, p.291)After this meeting two basic documents came out. One was the political proclomation and the other was the implementation plan. In this meeting 5 very important decisions were taken in the fields of water projects, energy, health, agriculture, biological variations and the protection of ecosystem administrations. (Karabıçak Armağan 2004, p.212) In 2007, Lula Silva, the president of Brazil, in his speech to UN General Assembly made an offer to hold a global top meeting Rio+20 to discuss the subjects about the sustainable developments in the world. His offer was approved on Dec. 24.2009 by the UN general assembly and the date was set for June 20-22.2012. The four points to be focused in this meeting are ; (http://www.mfa.gov.tr/uluslararasi-cevre-konulari.tr.mfa -To review promises(engagements) -The new problems arouse -Struggles against poverty and the gren economy by means of sustainable development -Associational frames for sustainable development The Rio +20 UN sustainable development conference scheduled to be held in June 20-22. 2012 is actually an indication of the sensibility and the will to promote the mentioned matters. (http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20/index.html). In Turkey too, under the responsibility and coordination of the ministry of development those Project activities within the framework of Turkey’s supportive projects to the preparations for Rio+20 conference and on the subjects of fortifying the systems of protected areas of Turkey, sea and the protected seaside areas to be made easier fort he continuation. (http://www.undp.org.tr/Gozlem3.aspx?WebSayfaNo=3510). In this context a meeting was held in Ankara on Feb. 22.2012 on the sustainable development prosessing the future (http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetayHYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"&HYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"Id=520). 4.ECONOMICAL DIMENSIONS OF ENVİRONMENTAL PROTECTION POLICIES TO BE IMPLEMENTED AND IT’S RELATION TO DEVELOPMENT In the literature of economy it was admitted that human needs are ever lasting but are limited for the sources to meet these requirements. So it seems possible to meet these requirements with such sources. Therefore, the necessity for all sorts of technological and technical effectiveness taken under considerations fort he usage of natural resource. Again the mentioned effectiveness here must coincide with the effectiveness in the consumption and in the distribution of the sources. The effective and reasonable utilisation of sources carries up the prosperity to the agenda. The development of a community can olnly be by maximizing the social relief and prosperity. Promoting this social prosperity with out any reduction leads 246 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the fact that a balance must be built between the existing and future generations. In our times it is believed that this balance can only be provided with the principles of sustainable development. Basic problem of the underdeveloped countries is too crowded population and the poverty. Communities through out the history and before the industrial terms and those of industrialized communities the fact of population had the recycling effects qualitatively and quantitatively over the economy. Of course these recyclines and transformations in economy is affecting the structure of population. The volume of population is an indicator affecting upon the production, division, consumption and also gets affected itself from these facts. (Küçükkalay, Türkcan, 2008, p.89) Over population adversly affects the distribution ofi income and promoting the excessive use of sources. This situation causes the in effectiveness among the production consumption and sharing and eventually negatively effects upon the living quality. Therefore the importance of development by means of economy which basicly measures the growing problems of the countries has been dominant factor in our days. To protect the level of prosperity of developed countries and overcoming the prolonged revolving poverty of the poor countries can only be realized by sustainable developments. According to the thesis of povertytrap the reason why some countries are poor is just because they’re poor. In this povertytrap there is a steady state where per capita and per outputs are low. Therefore, whenever such a poor country intends to break this chain falls back into the same circle. (Ünsal 2007, p.179) United Nations development program is taking two indexes under consideration one is human poverty index and the other one is human development index. Human development index is the one that UNDP has produced aiming to show the development differences of the nations in international level. Such dimensions like health, education, living standarts had all been added to this index. For obtaining an index, the life expectancy at birth representing the health, the mean years of schooling represents expected years of schooling and per GNDP used for representing the living standarts. (http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistiks/hdi/ Studying datum given in Table 1 here below, the living standart gross national income per capita is 13559 USD, which is 62% high than Bosnia Herzegovina while the life expectancy at birth is 4% and expected years of schooling is 10% lower. Mean years of schooling in Bosnia is 2,2 years more than Turkey with the average of 8,7 years. Additionally human development index in Bosnia Herzegovina is 0,710 higher than Turkey. World Bank uses 1 USD/day measures to determine the level of poorness. Nowadays 1,2 billion people are living below this amount. Another measure is food energy method. By this internationally accepted method, the minimum level of calories determined but the consumption of other than foods were omitted. (Cepni 2010, p.201) Table 1. Fixed Values Used in Human Development Index Health Edication Living Standards Turkey (2010) Life Expectancy At Birth 72,7 Mean Years Of Schoolling 6,5 Espected Years Of 11,8 Schoolling Gross National İncome Per 13.359 $ Capita Human Development Index 247 0,679 Bosnia Herzegovina (2010) 75,5 8,7 13,0 8.222 $ 0,710 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Source:http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistiks/hdi;http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi/. (http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table1_reprint.pdf . / ; Economical growth has a numerical properties expressing income per capita and physical increases in production where as the economical development includes not only numerical factors but also qualitative elements. In order to mention about the development there must be an improvment in processing rules and in quality levels of foundation and establishments. (Çepni, 2010 ; p.199) Nowadays the occurances of some negative progress about the environmental protection are directing the countries and communities to behave more sensitively. Instead of the developments with in definite borders and careless use of sources such a sustainable development that would cover the coming generations was found to bee more acceptable view all over the world. Sustainable development therefore is the kind that covers the economy, environment and the communities together. Here the fundamentual problem is the excess financial burdens that sustainable development policies may cause. There are various opinions about the mentioned financial costs. Whilst the traditional approaches are rather distant on sustainability, the environmentalists are rather quite insistant. There are some views stating the possibilities of setting a harmonious acceptence between these two views. The aims of sustainable development aren’t too far from the economical development targets. Actually, the object of sustainable development is simply to look after an adjustment or harmony between the economical requests and conveying capacity of ecosystems. (Gönel, 200, p.276) If such an adjustment could be realized in all countries, then, both the global rivalry will not be adversly affected by these policies and non of the economical stability will be spoiled or destroyed. Therefore, no social prosperity decrease. To set up such a harmony definitely is diffucult but is never impossible. Minimising the environmental costs and converting the negativities to adventages forms firstly will depend upon the conversion of negative extroverts into introvert which may form during the production. Improving the sustainable living qualities, determining and implementing the methods would eradicate the negativies caused by the production and consumptional activities however what may be nede to provide this is the conformity between the targets desired to reach and the chosen instruments. (Toprak:2006, p.151); (Dağdemir:2003, p.141-155); (Çokgezen, 2007:102). Have been able to maintion about some principles for the solution of existing environmental problems within the sustainablity. These principles are; “sustainable developments”, “the polluatant pays”, “precaution”, collabration complementary high level protections, avoidance and avoidance at source. 4.1.The Principle of Sustainable Development The essential projection point of this principle is the relation of environmental problems with the economical development. Environmental effluent Have a certain recyling (revaluation) capacity, which peovides appriciable savings in the utilization of natural sources. The ecological and natural living transformation gets negatively affected when the environment receives rapid pollution over the recyling capacity. (Başol and others.2007, p.163) The additional factors like over population migration problems, unorganized urbanization, increased traffic jams, earthquakes, wars, social disorders and complications have all great additional negativity to the ones mentioned above. Nowadays civil urbanization ratio is increasing rapidly in great number of countries and the population density gets higher in bigger towns. This unbalanced distribution of population leads to infrastructural insufficiency and so to over usage of sources will end up with increased pollution. 248 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo First of all the new technologies are needed for setting a suitable environmental protection policy that would match to sustainable development principles. This can only be realized by some attentive plans or precautions. For example, millious of wehicles nowadays are moving around all round the world. Additional milllions are joining them everyday. By charging higher taxes for those vehicles harmful to the environment and lesser taxes for unharmful to the environment and lesser taxes for unharmful ones might be the collobarative support of research and development centers the minimisation of these negative effects upon the environment can reasonably be reduced. We can classify the renovations as renevals of products, processes and organisations. The first two are expressed as technological renevals. The organisational one can be taken as example to “just in time” renewal principles. Through the aid of technological renevations improved production schemes and new methods can be developed. Technological renovations, whilist making thee new products more populer, it may also become a reason fort he birth of a sector. It’s very important to select the most suitable one among the alternative technologies. Developing countries can not explore new Technologies but can obtain them through the transferances. (Kaya, 2008. p.281) but these developed countries don’t give chance to them for such transferance of new Technologies. Insufficient Technologies may have negative effects upon the environmental protection, that is why many of those underdeveloped countries become rather a field or source of poluution. The foremost duties about the sustainable developments are up to the central and local authorities. Uncontrolled, unhealthful and rapid civil urbanisation results in increased squatters shacks round the suburban areas. A great deal of sharing the benefits due to rapid urbanisation causes the destruction of historical background and sites of the town.This excess and denser growth of inhabitant areas loose their gren nature and turno ut to be a mass of concrete structures. Insufficiency of present technical and social infrastructure creates very unhealty appearence (Türkmen 2000, p.140). Local authorities should take necessary precaution mutually with central authorities, civillion social and Professional organisations to make their towns a beter place to live in. Some randomly made construction plan check ups and modifications have been creating very unlucky effects upon historical and cultural structure of the towns. Environmental and touristic sites get badly and irrevocably harmed by such wrong administrations. Traffic jam is another negative factor in sustainable developments. Thousands of people are loosing their lives and wasted in Turkey and all around the world. Better results can be obtained if the suitable correction can be made infrastructures of transportational fascilities be improved and when the proper transference of existing usable sources be realized. Earthquakes cause tremendous collapses and lose of lives all over the world. Those can save themselves may have psychological disorders. So, careful studies and calculations of the constructions and beter selection and use of good quality materials will provide strong fascilities. This will avoid the lose of many lives and sarrowness. Health is one of the indicator to emphesise the importance of sustainable development. For a helaty community a clean enviroment is firstly needed. Living in a clean, neat media does increase the quality of life. Lesser expenditures for health increases communal savings, such savings will help the development of the countries progresses and to have a prosperous life. World peace is the subject that can be benefited from to obtain best results in sustainable developments.No natural destruction can compete with the pollution may be caused by the wars. The matter of armaments and wars were always neglected to mention in the environmental literatures by which they do put forward their views by all chance about the environmental protection. Neverthless should those invested billions of dollars for armaments 249 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo be allocated to help settling peace, protecting cultural values and for an honourable human living, there would remain no poverty, hungerness and pollution all over the world. Those realistic countries, being aware of loses due to wars always stay away from supporting, feding or provking the terrorism. This takes the human being to peace and confidence. 4.2.Who Polluts Will Pay Principle Environmental cost inclusively to turn the responsibility and duty of preventing the pollution over to the pollutant by charcing the total cost of the use of natural sources. However, its not always possible to identify the pollutant. That’s why a great potion of the pollution cost are rather made paid by the public through the taxes. For instance, Turkey being an OECD member has been having maximum revenue through the taxes relevant to environment, that 4,8% GNDP of Turkey and 25% of the total income taxes weren’t set up for environmental purposes. Neverthless the ratio of expenditures fort he prevention of pollutions to GNDP, 1,1%could hardly be increased to 1,2%. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/17/42198785.pdf, p.21) It’s rather diffucult to detect or identify the individuals causing the pollutions. There is a need for very precise good detection network. To realize such an attempt, public should be with reasonable education conscious, capable of preserving his civil rights an be dynamic ones. There should be no pressure on dense population and poverty, as otherwise the problem of hunger will exist in such a community. If the individuals are having some fear and anxiousness for their survivals, environmental problems are then nothing more than a fantastic matter for them. Therefore the subject sustainable development is definitely an ethical concept. Communities or individuals must have ethical responsibilities that not look after only fort he prosperities of their own groups but must for those who have no support and uncapable of expressing themselves. 4.3.Precaution and Prevention Principle Necessary precaoutions must be taken before making any decisions and testing for probable reactions may arise from such decisions. All precautions no matter how effective they may be won’t be sufficient once the environmental destruction occurs. 4.4.Completing and Collaboration Principles Environmental protection must be in harmony with other policies and must go for collaboration in all fields when necessary. But, reducing the globally occured pollutions it is a must to have an international colaboration. The dimensions of such international collaborations and sharing the attendances rather depends on the countries capacity in creating Technologies and their usage. 4.5.High Level Protection Principles When taking any kind of decision the authorised unit or societies must take the environmental policies under considerations. Law makers should also obey these rules as well. 4.6.Prevention at Source Principle 250 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Environmental harms must be readily prevented at source, otherwise there will be not much meaning once the damage occurs. For example, one of the most important subject of Turkey is forest fires. The main point about such fires is not to have the start of such fires because the useful flora and wildlife can nnot be reobtainable. Such fire does not only destroy the nature, but burns those inhabitants site sor villages. Billions of tl.s worthed goods get simply lost. Turkish development policies from the planning period to present times has shown a progress towards the sustainable development with in the dimensions of economy environment and community activities. In spite of the marked progresses achieved in this field, the observation and evaluations of sustainable developments have remained limited. Some small scale local studies were realized on this subject neverthless the need preparing Turkey’s national sustainable development indication set and index is stil valid. 5.SUMMARY The most essential principle in environmental protection is to provide proper utilisation of natural sources in right balance and to look after and pressure rightfull share among the generation. Therefore, it is a must to seriously accept research and developments for introducing new Technologies into the circulation. Must be precise to benefit from the recycling possibilities for effluents coming from the productions and to aim to edible sources and use the sources but not finish. Environmental and economical policies those will provide the sustainability must take over a dominant role. Excessive productions and selfishness in consumptions will never be ethical and will also maket he most reasonably applicable policies invalid about the environmental protection. The complementary policies which the international collaborations and harmony and will fallowing the effectiveness of the appropriate distrubution of the sources, productions and consumptions seems to give very meaningful results and high level protective precautions are thought to be a fruitful and will be preventive against the probable environmental problems right at the source before coming into being fort he global effectiveness of the sustainable development policies and to transfer a livable environment to the generations. An intelligance having the power and desire to live in a clean and neat surroundings snd also fighting against all sorts of pollutions in the world must build its soverignty all over the world. BIBLIOGRAPHY BAŞOL, Koray, DURMAN, Mustafa, ÖNDER, Hüseyin (2007), Doğal Kaynakların ve Çevrenin Ekonomik Analizi, Alfa Aktüel, Bursa. BURROWS, Paul (1980), The Economic Theory of Pollution Control, First MIT Press Edition Cambridge, Massachusetts. ÇEPNİ, Elif (2010), Ekonomik Göstergeler ve İstatistikler Rehberi, Seçkin Yayınevi, Ankara. ÇOKGEZEN, Jale (2007), “Avrupa Birliği Çevre Politikası ve Türkiye”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt XXIII, Sayı 2. DAĞDEMİR, Özcan (2003), Çevre Sorunlarına Ekonomik Yaklaşımlar ve Optimal Politika Arayışları, Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara, Kasım. DOĞANER GÖNEL, Feride (2010), Kalkınma Ekonomisi, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara. 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Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1330 Title A name given to the resource Economic Dimension Of The Environmental Policies Applied In Turkey And Its Potential Effects On Sustainable Development Author Author Mevlüt , Karabiçak Abstract A summary of the resource. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the economic dimension of environmental policies still being applied in Turkey and to research the potential effects of sustainable development. In 1987 Bruntland Report was published by UN World Commission on Environment and Development and attention on sustainable development was attracted. In the aforementioned report, against the ever deteriorating environmental problems, the necessities of establishing the vital bridge between environmental development and economic development and the sustainability of development are accepted. The first precaution coming to mind for preventing environmental destructions that causes crucial costs for national economies is the efficient and productive use of current resources and the establishment of an optimal equilibrium between current and future generations in terms of the use of resources. Being sensitive in terms of the principle of sustainable development in the formation of environmental policies is accepted to be an important approach for the prevention of environment. Although the sustainable development endeavours cause significant costs, it is observed that new policies are constantly formed in terms of environment. In the scope of the paper, the potential effects of environmental policies that aim to decrease the negative effects created by the destruction of environment and to turn the world into a more habitable area on sustainable development are analysed through national and international data Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8e386699bb96dd22a3ffdea8a4e9fe3f.pdf 26eb6b708c90f9c1cbb64e31e32c85cc PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo practice contributes to the greater transparency of business, better supervision of the company, and therefore its better reputation. For the aim of further promotion of corporate governance, special care should be taken of the greater promotion of good corporate governance practice, greater protection of the interests of minor shareholders, strengthening the role of the supervisory board, greater compliance of entity laws, as well as greater transparency in company's business transactions. In the past years, corporate governance gained more importance, and many studies have shown that the application of good corporate governance practices leads to the greater value of the company and a smaller risk of financing. REFERENCES Ana Bobirca, and Paul-Gabriel Miclaus (2007), Extensiveness and Effectiveness of Corporate, Governance Regulations in South-Eastern Europe. Corporate Governance Country Assessment, Bosnia and Herzegovina, June 2006 , http://www.worldbank.org/ifa/rosc_cg_bih_eng.pdf. Corporate Governance in FBiH – the results of research in 2011., SEE Business Solution d.o.o. Sarajevo , http://conference.capitalmarket.ba/6/prezentacije/Sanja%20Jokic.pdf Corporate Governance Codex SASE ( 2009. ), http:/www.sase.ba and Standards of Corporate Governance BLSE ( 2011 ) http://www.blberza.com Corporate Governance, News in international standards, legislation and practice in Bosnia and Herzegovina (2008 ), Revicon. Dr. Hubertus G. Tschopp ( 2002 ), Corporate governance, The Key to Success of Failure, Boardroom, Magazine of Corporate Governance, Leadership and Quality of Life. Mc Kinsey ( 2000 ), Global investor Opinion Survey on corporate Governance. OECD Principles of corporate governance ( 2001 Edition ). Robert W. McGee ( 2008 ), Corporate Governance in Transition Economies, Springer. White paper on Corporate Governance in South East Europe (2003.), OECD 2003 www.stabilitypackt.org Economic Diplomacy and Business Negotiation- managerial approach Amra Nušinović, Erkan İlgun International Burch University, Faculty of Management, 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. E-mail: amra.nus@gmail.com Abstract Economic Diplomacy explains how states conduct their external economic relations in the 21st century: how they make decisions domestically; how they negotiate internationally; and 284 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo how these processes interact. Economic diplomacy in the global environment has become essential for all countries. The contemporary world is painted with constant changes, where the key of economic success lies in their ability to understand and a good adjustment to the new business environment. This newly created environment is nothing more than globalization. If we bear in mind that the global economy is characterized by high levels of competitiveness, the question is how the economic operators of small countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, can gain market share and how they can achieve competitive advantage. Research shows that a very important role may be played by effectiveness and efficiency of diplomacy, or more precisely its economic component, relatively economic diplomacy. It is a fact that highly-educated and motivated diplomacy is indispensable to every nation which ties its economic prosperity to constant and fruitful exchange on the world market, to the free circulation of people, goods, and capital, and to its successful economic performance in the world. In today's world of global world economy, it is especially necessary. Negotiation is constantly present in our lives, and according to some, it represents one of the skills necessary for survival. Regardless if the aim of the negotiation is victory over an opponent, compromise, or the development of good mutual international relations, a manager must know competitive tactics to be able to achieve the best negotiation results. Possession of negotiation skills is crucial in the interaction of the manager with the employees, the head manager, or with stockholders outside of the company. Business negotiation is the very essence of diplomacy, that is its basic activity. Diplomacy and negotiation are terms which always appear together. Keywords: Economic diplomacy, global economy, business negotiation, global environment, international relations, Economic diplomacy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. 1. The Term and Significance of Economic Diplomacy Economic diplomacy is a specific combination of classic diplomacy, economic sciences, and managerial sciences, methods and techniques for negotiation with foreign partners, public relations, and collecting economic information of interest for the economy of one's country or company, in the aim of penetration onto the world market. Economic-diplomatic and diplomatic action do not have magical powers, nor can they resolve inner structural problems of the economy and the country. They must be in service of economic and political recuperation and the country's stabilization, as well as its successful representation and penetration in the world. Therefore, they do not only follow but they assist the economic development of the country, its performance in foreign policy and foreign economy in the world. From the Renaissance up to today, economic issues has been one of the narrowest tasks of diplomacy, parallel to politics. The term Economic Diplomacy is of a relatively new date and is rooted in the French language- la diplomatie economique. Economic Diplomacy can be looked at from two perspectives. One is Economic Diplomacy in the larger sense, and it is more comprehensive and relevant to all the subjects of a society who participate in strengthening the economic competitiveness of a nation with diplomatic methods; the second definition of Economic Diplomacy in the narrow sense concerns the exclusive activities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the defense of the economic interests of its country. Economic diplomacy promotes national economic interest and business in other countries. It is associated with trade, business, market, and investment promoted through political diplomacy. Economic diplomacy depicts how states conduct their economic relations 285 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo with other countries by using political influence and promoting trade and investment to find a market for its products and services. We will state some of the interesting and up-to-date definitions of Economic Diplomacy: „Economic Diplomacy represents a type of government service to the economy or the business sector of a country, whose main goal is the achievement and development of socioeconomic benefits out of international business activity.“ „Economic Diplomacy incorporates within itself negotiation skills, followed by the process of collecting information of interest for the economy of the country it is representing. Subsequently, economic diplomacy lobbies with the goal of positioning economy in the foreign market on the one hand, as well as with the goal of protection of the economy of its own country on the other.“ „Economic diplomacy represents a specific combination of diplomacy in the classical sense of the word, as well as economic sciences and management, whose main goal is to create, sustain, and develop a positive environment for multilateral and bilateral economic cooperation.“34 Economic diplomacy is functional at three levels: bilateral, regional, and multilateral. Bilateral economic diplomacy plays a major role in economic relations. It includes bilateral trade and treaty; agreements on investment; employment or avoidance of double taxation; and range of formal and informal economic issues between two countries. Bilateral Free Trade Agreements have been the order of the day, and are being implemented by many countries around the world. Regional cooperation is of growing importance in economic diplomacy. National interest and economic liberalization is easily accepted when it is confined to a particular region. The opening of borders and markets becomes easier within a regional framework. Multilateral economic diplomacy takes place within the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and UN agencies. When speaking of human potential in economic diplomacy, a representation is not possible without the help of managerial concepts. The term that is increasingly being used in management is the so-called „human ware“, that is, the element in an organization which is becoming more and more appreciated on the market (intangible assets). It is worth nothing that economic diplomacy represents a type of multicultural management, that is, it is made up of people from various cultural value systems, which have to form a complete team, which also represents one of the most frequent problems for all those who work in international business. The differences in size and economic strength of a country, the differences of the political and economic systems, the various characteristics and systems of market regulation influence the fact that countries also develop differing concepts of economic diplomacy. Economic diplomacy is faced with very complex standards which regulate the organizations responsible for economic policies such as for example, the World Trade Organization (WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), or the Organization for Economic Collaboration and Development (OECD). 2. The role of diplomacy in a country's economic development 34 Mile Sadžak, (2008).Synopsis, Sarajevo. Economic Diplomacy- managerial approach 286 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The role of economic diplomacy is becoming more significant, in international business, as well as in the process of economic universilization and the need for export-oriented companies. Economic diplomacy has great influence on the economic development of a country. Researching economic diplomacy imposes the need to consider its role in the development and promotion of a country's economy. It is necessary to establish the relationship of: national business- state administration – economic diplomacy. The basic task of the state administration is to establish relations between the business subjects of its country with economic diplomacy and its representatives, which represent their country abroad. Economic diplomacy is dealing with a new concept of international economic collaboration, but also with the connection between economic diplomacy and business. Therefore, it has common ground in the fields of foreign trade, finances, industrial relations, negotiations and contracts in politics, as well as in business. Economic and diplomatic actions must be in the service of the state, as well as its successful representation and penetration into the world markets. With the globalization of world economy and international politics, the interest of certain economies in being promoted abroad and earning greater participation in the world market and a share in the realized profits, becomes the state interest of their countries. Today, an economic representative is an economic observer of economic developments on the world market in the country he/she is sent to. In daily communication with skilled economic diplomats of interested countries, they expect information and guarantees that all conditions and full security for their investment are provided. In economic life, aside from all other factors, economic diplomacy helps with quality information and advice on current trends, scope, types, and quality of similar or sought-for products of competitor-companies and countries, analyses of the needs and saturation of foreign markets, acceptable prices and deadlines, all the way to the designs or product samples of competitor companies. It is a fact that a rational and thought-out concept of the economic representation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the world still does not exist, one that complies with the needs and abilities of our economy. 3. Economic diplomacy and business negotiation Business negotiation is the very essence of diplomacy. It is a skill which a diplomat must possess if he/she wishes to successfully fulfill his/her mission. Diplomacy and negotiation are two terms which always go together. This is also pointed out by Berridge: „diplomacy is the leading of international relations more by negotiation than by force, propaganda or the application of rights“or Kovačević who states that negotiation is the way in which diplomatic activities are achieved and represents the core of diplomacy.35 The interesting aspect is how a diplomat enters into the challenges of modern times. Domestic companies can lose a great part of their money if an investment is brought into question because a manager does not understand or has missed the chance to acquaint him/herself with the latent political opposition which is key to the realization of the investment or the export of products, while the country can lose great amounts of money on the international market because its trade negotiators do not understand the need for a political conflict to be resolved in mutual negotiations. An economic diplomatist is responsible for representing the interests of his/her country in his/her work; so consequently, the result of the  Assistant Prof.; Dumlupınar University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences (İİBF), Department of Public Administration. 287 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo negotiation has great influence on the entire economic development. Due to this, the skill of negotiation is one of the most important priorities, and with the strengthening of the negotiating power itself, it becomes of particular importance. Cultural differences play a significant role in international business negotiations. Ignorance of the behavior, needs, and customs of a different environment can represent problems in negotiations, as well as be negatively reflected on the relationships between the negotiators, as well as the countries. Taking into account cultural differences means a certain level of tolerance and understanding. For most negotiations, the rule that „nothing is agreed upon until everything is agreed upon“ applies, which means that any provision of the agreement is subject to change until the parties approbate it completely. However, international agreements and contracts enter into force by way of ratification by a state organ, which is usually parliament. Fulfilling the contract and agreement affects the credibility and mutual trust between negotiators. A once violated or canceled agreement can permanently hinder relations between the countries. Failure to fulfill the agreement negatively affects the country's image itself, and this can also negatively reflect on its economy. Of course, it is in every country's interest to have the contract and agreement fulfilled by the other party. Economic diplomacy should play a major role in this business. Therefore, an economic diplomat must be aware of all the contractual relationships between his/her country and the host country, as well as their essence in order to be able to react on time, but also to mediate in contentious situations in order to prevent eventual unwanted consequences. International business negotiations are extremely complex activities. For their successful execution, it is necessary that every country in the best and most efficient way changes and prepares its resources. Naturally, developed countries have great advantage here. The question arises of how small countries and developing countries can be equal partners in negotiations with developed countries. Experience indicates more and more that even developing countries can have a large and important influence in international negotiations, insofar as they have the correct procedure. In order for developing countries to strengthen their negotiation positions in international frameworks, it is necessary for them to provide maximum attention to the elimination of causes for their deficiencies. 4. Economic diplomacy in Bosnia and Herzegovina Economic diplomacy is a very powerful term in the world, while it is still an unknown one in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Developing economic diplomacy for the government in B&H is still not on the list of priorities. Our country does not have a developed web of representatives in potential markets, which would additionally encourage the broadening of economic cooperation of B&H firms in these areas. The extremely unfavorable economic situation in which our country finds itself in forces upon it the need to speed up integrative processes, in order to, in conditions of heightened interdependence with highly-developed countries, achieve a more powerful speeding-up of development, and above all in the economic sphere. Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country in transition with a difficult heritage of war which burdens both the transition process as well as the process of economic development, and it has an almost non-existent economic diplomacy. The diplomacy of Bosnia and Herzegovina is very weak, bureaucratic, and insufficiently equipped to support our economy. The export our country achieves, and which is not on a satisfactory level, best tells us how much the economy is suffering due to not establishing economic diplomacy. According to the opinion of Mr. Sven Alkalay, the minister of foreign affairs in B&H, the markets of Libya, Turkey, the countries of the Middle East, but also Germany, Italy, and Austria, should be better treated and we should significantly activate ourselves towards them. These are the countries in which pre-war B&H was extremely esteemed for its quality. There are many chances for export in 288 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo these countries, receiving significant jobs, but also potential investors who would invest in B&H, its economy and development. Economic diplomacy is the best way to give information about our potential, our possibilities, products, and services. There are countless possibilities opening up for B&H companies, those which would with the adequate diplomatic engagement, lead to business success, and one of them is the placement of certified „halal“ products, which are increasingly sought in EU countries, as well as better promotion of the natural and touristic beauties of B&H in the world. The export achieved by B&H, which is not at a satisfactory level, best tells of the way the economy is suffering due to not establishing economic diplomacy, and it is problematic also that 95% of export is achieved on the markets of ten to twelve countries, ignoring the enormous markets such as Russia or the Arab countries. Our products have little or no participation in these markets, while it is exactly these countries that are the area we need to look for our chance in. Faced with a new market environment and new market rules, the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina finds itself in a very difficult and unenviable position. Technological obsolescence, non-existence of political consensus, non-existence of clear economic and political goals result in the difficult and unfavorable economic position of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the international economic scene. The wish of Bosnia and Herzegovina for the development of international economic collaboration enforces the need for intensifying economic and diplomatic activities, whose goal is the protection of national economic interests. Bosnia and Herzegovina does not have its own economic representatives in the world. 5. Conclusion- Economic diplomacy as the future of diplomacy It can be said that economic diplomacy is the future of diplomacy because in the circumstances of the globalization of the world economy, it has become the basic source for penetration onto world markets. It is a fact that highly-educated and motivated diplomacy is necessary for every nation which connects its economic growth to the constant exchange on the world market, the free movement of people, goods, and capital, its successful economic performance in the world. None of us can live and produce on our own all that is necessary for the normal functioning of the economy and satisfying the needs of the citizens. The main function of economic diplomacy is the protection of national interests in international economic relations. On the other hand, we are facing a world economic crisis which, aside from everything, is heavily burdening international relations and having an important effect on the profiling of current economic diplomacy. Considering that the basic goal of economic diplomacy is to stimulate economic exchange between countries, it is clear that it is an important factor in its development. The opinion prevalent in the West is that the opening of markets, free movement of goods, services, and capital are necessary elements for the successful economic growth of a country. Economic diplomacy promotes such an idea, and in this way contributes to the openness and greater exchange and collaboration of the developed world with developing countries. The global goal of world development is that those parts of the world where poverty rules, destitution, starvation, and the like, that these states are brought to a minimum and in the end, completely eliminated. It is for this reason that it is necessary to fight with all resources and with human solidarity, and in this, a great role is played by economic diplomacy. REFERENCES Economic diplomacy powerful lobby in the world, in Bosnia is still a mystery, http://www.ekapija.ba/website/bih/page/399438 289 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Economic Diplomacy: Positioning in the era http://www.gmbusiness.biz/index.php/arhiva/21-30/gm_24/3321.html of globalization, Economic Diplomacy, http://economicsanddiplomacy.blogspot.com Ilija J. Džombić, (2008). Economic Diplomacy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mile Sadžak, (2008).Synopsis, Sarajevo, Economic Diplomacy- managerial approach. Mirza Pašić, (2008). TKD Šahinpašić , Diplomacy. Nicholas Bayne, Stephen Woolcock, (2007). Ashgate, The New Economic Diplomacy: Decision-Making and Negotiation in International Economic Relations. Vladimir Prvulović, (2006). Megatrend, Beograd. Economic Diplomacy. An Analysis Of Relationship Between Economic Growth And Selected Economic Indicators With Regression Trees And Ols: 1990-2009 Period In Turkey Ali Avci1, Harun Sulak2 1.Pamukkale University, Department of Economics 2.Süleyman Demirel University, Department of Econometrics E-mail: aliavci20@hotmail.com,harunsulak@sdu.edu.tr Abstract The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between economic growth and selected economic indicators during the economic crisis in Turkey between 1990-2009 with regression trees and OLS method. Important crises in Turkey were April 1994, February 2001 and August 2008 crises. For economic growth, industrial production is used as the dependent variable and eight variables were used as independent variables which are commonly mentioned in the literature. In both method, there is a negative relationship between industrial production and trade balance and domestic loans, on the other hand a positive relation to other variables. For international reserves, a positive relationship is found with industrial production in regression trees method, however there is a negative correlation in the method of least squares. Keywords: Economic growth, financial crisis, regression trees 1.INTRODUCTION Since 1980s both domestic and external financial liberalization policies that put into practice without adequate infrastructure in developing countries led to economic crisis and markets become more vulnerable to shocks. These crises are; 1992-1993 European Monetary System (ERM), 1994 Latin America, 1997 South-East Asia, 1998 Russia, 1999 Brazil, 1994 and 2001 Turkey, 2002 Argentina and 2008 Global financial crises. Applications of financial liberalization in Turkey, has been implemented in an environment of macroeconomic stability 290 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1336 Title A name given to the resource Economic Diplomacy and Business Negotiation- managerial approach Author Author Amra, Nušinović ERGÜN, Uğur Abstract A summary of the resource. Economic Diplomacy explains how states conduct their external economic relations in the 21st century: how they make decisions domestically; how they negotiate internationally; and how these processes interact. Economic diplomacy in the global environment has become essential for all countries. The contemporary world is painted with constant changes, where the key of economic success lies in their ability to understand and a good adjustment to the new business environment. This newly created environment is nothing more than globalization. If we bear in mind that the global economy is characterized by high levels of competitiveness, the question is how the economic operators of small countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, can gain market share and how they can achieve competitive advantage. Research shows that a very important role may be played by effectiveness and efficiency of diplomacy, or more precisely its economic component, relatively economic diplomacy. It is a fact that highly-educated and motivated diplomacy is indispensable to every nation which ties its economic prosperity to constant and fruitful exchange on the world market, to the free circulation of people, goods, and capital, and to its successful economic performance in the world. In today's world of global world economy, it is especially necessary. Negotiation is constantly present in our lives, and according to some, it represents one of the skills necessary for survival. Regardless if the aim of the negotiation is victory over an opponent, compromise, or the development of good mutual international relations, a manager must know competitive tactics to be able to achieve the best negotiation results. Possession of negotiation skills is crucial in the interaction of the manager with the employees, the head manager, or with stockholders outside of the company. Business negotiation is the very essence of diplomacy, that is its basic activity. Diplomacy and negotiation are terms which always appear together. Keywords: Economic diplomacy, global economy, business negotiation, global environment, international relations, Economic diplomacy in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/289eecb8932df0e3cf34439af002651a.pdf 19ae5c91e223a240f0d4292d91efcc47 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo World bank database 2012 Economic Growth And Financial Indicators Connection Mustafa Öztürk, Osman Kadi, Filiz Kadi Fatih Üniversitesi, Fatih Üniversitesi 34500 Büyükçekmece/İstanbul E-mails: mozturk@fatih.edu.tr,oskadi@fatih.edu.tr,fkadi@fatih.edu.tr Abstract Real macro economic factors have always been accepted as main determinants of nations’ economies’. However, the development of financial markets and the rise of financial activities in globalizing world economies have led financial actors to affect nations’ economies’ more and more everyday. With the rise of liberalization process after 1980, the influences of financial developments rised in Turkey, too. In today’s world, the effects of financial factors on Turkish economy is more evident than any time. In this study, with the aim of detecting the effects of financial factors on Turkish economy, the relations between financial data as Exchange rates, interest rates and IMKB 100 index and economic growth has been analysed. Keywords: financial data, exchange rates, interest rates, economic growth, Vector Auto Regression Model (V.A.R). 1.INTRODUCTION The relation between financial developments and economic growth has been frequently debated subject lately. These debates mostly focus on the case that financial developments affect economic growth or economic growth affects financial developments. In today’s economies in which financial markets gradually enlarge and financial instruments gradually increase, it is observed that financial improvements influence economic growth. Assets’ prices are formed and change under the influence of financial developments; financial developments determine consumption and investment expenses in a significant amount. In this study, financial macroeconomic data and economic growth relation has been analysed by dividing the onservations between 1998-2010 into quarters. After a literature review of the subject, causality relation between financial data and economic growth has been analysed by granger causality test. After that, vector auto regression (VAR) model has been applied. Lastly, effect-reaction functions have been deducted by the help of correctness tests. 422 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2. Empirical Studies Harvey (1998) studied the relation between interest rates and maturity form and consumption expense. Estrella ve Hardouvelis (1991) analysed the one between bond yields and growth. Cozier ve Tkacz studied the amount of impact that interest rates in Canada have on GSYİH. Mishkin (1995) and Bernanke and Gertler (1995) asserted that the causality from interest rates to real production is dubious. Kamin and Rogers (2000) studied the relation between national income and exchange rate. Çetintaş and Barışık (2003) analysed the relation between banks, capital market and economic growth. 3. Data Set and Method In today’s Turkey which has adopted liberal politics, it has occurred as a subject of debate that the nation has left open to foreign shocks after the elimination of restraints beyond foreign capital. Besides, it is asserted that a nation having savings gap needs foreign capital for financing its expenses, mainly investment expenses and otherwise a crisis may occur. With this aim, the years between 1998 and 2009 have been analysed in three-month segments and macro economic data has been analysed with capital movements towards Turkey. After detecting the crisis level that is caused by corruption of macro data, whether capital movements are influential on these corruptions or not and which macro economic data at which amount is influenced by capital movements have been searched for. Analyses eviews 5.0 packet programmes and VAR model were used for that. Table. 3. 1 Macro Economic Variables Used in the Model Variables Code of Variable Type Definition Growth Rate (GSYİH) GROWTH1 Endogenous Seasonal Adjusted Stagnant Real Foreign Exchange Rate EXCHANGELOG1 Endogenous Seasonal Adjusted Stagnant Foreign Exchange Interest INTEREST1 Endogenous No seasonal impact observed Deposit Banks Loans LOANSA1 Endogenous Seasonal Adjusted Stagnant IMKB 100 Index IMKBLOG1SA Endogenous Seasonal Adjusted Stagnant The series in the model have been selected as quarter periods from TCMB electronic data distribution (EVDS) and they include the periods between the first quarter of 1998(1998Q11) and the fourth quarter of 2009(2009Q4). All series that are subject to analyse have been composed of precise periodic values. Numerical values that the the series are composed of have been added to calculation as TL. In the first step, it was analysed if the series contains unit root or not by the help of Augmented Dickey Fuller and Dickey Puntola tests. The unit roots ones are bowdlerized of root. After that, by rate to moving average method it was deseasonelized. In the third phase, optimal delay values for the model have been determined with information criteria. In the fourth step, relations between series and their directions were detected by Granger causality test. In the fifth phase, VAR (Vector Auto Regressive) model was formed for the forecast of 423 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo relations of foreign capital flow and reel macro economic data. In the sixth phase, relations between variables were analysed by establishing cause and effect functions. 4. Model Determination and Analyses 4.1. VAR (Vector Auto Regressive) Model Description and analyses of engagements between macro economical variables, forecasting the future is significant. However, engagements are mostly mixed and multi dimensional. The direction of the relation between variables, detection of dependent and independent variables may be difficult. For this reason, simultaneous equation systems are required. VAR Model (Vector Auto Regressive) is a model in which many variables are included in the analyses with their past values and each equation is settled out by the method of least-square method (Gujarati 2009:747). They have been developed for analyses of simultaneous equation system. In this type of models, there are no boundries of in-out division. This model puts all variables under operation at the same time and analyses in integrity. Variables can be used even if they are not stabile at the same level. It is a cause of choice in time series analyses for the reason that there are no restraints and it allows analyses of dynamic relations. The fact that delayed values of dependant variables are included in the model paves the way to strong anticipations of the future. With two variables, VAR Model can be formulated as this: p p i 1 i 1 p p i 1 i 1 yt  a1   b1i yt 1   b2i xt 1   1t xt  c1   d1i yt 1   d 2i xt 1   1t In the model, a1 is constant term, p is delay length, v is error term. In VAR model the average of error terms is zero. Kovarians with delayed values is zero. Variances are constant. They are in normal distribution and rassal quality. It is assumed that there is no relation between errors and their delayed values but this doesn’t mean a restraint to the model. Otocorelation problem may be eliminated by increasing delay length of variables. However, in the condition of errors’ being in relation to each other (the correlation between them is different from zero), change in one of the errors affects the other in a certain amount of time. There is no relation between error terms and variables on the right of the model. On the right handside of the model, there are delayed values of inner varibles and there isn’t the problem of simultaneouty. This allows the equations in the model to be settled out with least squares method. 4.2. Stagnancy Stagnancy is a variable’s avarage, variance and otocovariance’s being stable in time.  E (Yt )  E (Yt )    Var ( yt )  E ( yt   ) 2   2   k  E[ yt   )( yt k )   )] 424 Average Variance Covariance �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Serie’s stagnancy is important in time series which follows a stocastic period. In stagnant series, possible shocks will be temporary. The impact of shock will decrease gradually and serie will be back to long term avarage level. In instagnant series, there will be no long term avarage that the serie can go back after the shock. Series’ stagnancy is determined by unit root test. Expanded Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests are used for this. X t  a  X t 1   i 1 X t i  et (1) X t  a  bt  X t 1   i 1 X t i  et (2) m m Equations numbered (1) and (2) are the regression equations which are used for Dickey Fuller test. Number (1) is an equation with a steadiness but without a trend, and number (2) is an equation with both a steadiness and a trend. In number (1) equation H0: α =0 hypothesis and in number (2) equation H0: b =0 hypothesis is tested for unit root test. If H0 is rejected, Xt serie is stagnant, if not rejected it is not stagnant. Acoording to the results of ADF unit root test, series are analysed to see if they have unit root on peg and this is done looking at %1, %5 and %10 significance levels. Once the unit root is found, difference is taken and evaluated out of the unit root (Bozkurt 2007:27–45). Dickey Fuller Test was tested on %5 significance level with variables subjected to analysis. While the test was being carried out, it was tested automatically using Schwarz Info Criterion option since it was unknown if the error term was with autocorrelation. First differences of not-stationary ones were differed from the unit root by taking I(1). Table. 5.2. Steady State of Variables Code of variable Without trend With trend τ %1 %5 %10 τ %1 %5 %10 Growth rate (GSYİH) -5,78 -3,59 -2,93 -2,60 -5,48 -4,2 -3,53 -3,20 Real Foreign Exchange Rate -7,85 -3,58 -2,93 -2,60 -7,77 -4,17 -3,51 -3,19 Foreign Exchange Interest -4,59 -3,58 -2,93 -2,60 -4,54 -4,18 -3,52 -3,19 Deposit Banks Loans -1,49 -3,61 -2,49 -2,60 4,17 -3,51 -3,19 IMKB 100 Index -5,07 -3,58 -2,93 -2,60 -4,17 -3,51 -3,19 -6,63 -5,03 Number 1 in codes of variable shows that the first level difference of that serie is taken. * symbolizes level of the serie as %1 and ** as %5 4.3. Delay Level for VAR Analysis Delay lengths for VAR analysis were specified being dependent on LR, FPE, AIC, HQ, SC criteria in table 6.31 and via autocorrelation LM, heteroscedasticity White and normal distribution Jargue-Bera tests. The smallest delay level, where there is no autocorrelation (as 425 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo LM probability values more than 0,05), no heteroscedasticity (as White test Joint probability value more than 0,05) and there is normal distribution (as normality probability values more than 0,05), is 2 according to LR critical value. Table. 5.3. Capital Movements and Delay Length for Real Data VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria Endogenous variables: GROWTH1 EXCHANGELOG1 INTEREST1 LOANSA1 IMKBLOG1SA Exogenous variables: C Date: 05/23/12 Time: 22:58 Sample: 1998Q1 2009Q4 Included observations: 40 Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 0 320.4919 NA 9.70e-14 -15.77460 -15.56349* -15.69827 1 363.3976 72.93965* 4.01e-14* -16.66988* -15.40322 -16.21190* 2 383.6763 29.40417 5.40e-14 -16.43382 -14.11161 -15.59418 3 411.3330 33.18796 5.57e-14 -16.56665 -13.18889 -15.34536 * indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion 4.4. Causation Analysis While the relations between variables are studied, two things are aimed at: one is whether there is a connection between variables and if yes, in which direction; two is on which length of delay the connection might be taking place. Granger (1969) causation test is a test done for this purpose. n n i 1 i 1 y t  a 0    i x t i   a i y t i  u i 426 (3) �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo n n i 1 i 1 xt   0   a i y t i    i xt i  u i (4) Through the causation test symbolised with the equations numbered (3) and (4), how the variables x and y affect each other is found. With the components of x added to the model, it gets clearer if x causes changes on the future values of variabley. The same is applied for y with a parallel reason. It is necessary that the variables x and y are stagnant or to be made stagnant to conduct the Granger causation test. If the variables are not stagnant, a false causation will be observed. The causation which appears as a result of fake regression is a sign of simultaneous correlation. Granger Causation Test was conducted for the reasons such as testing the correlation between capital movements and real data, and identifying which variables affected each other in what direction. Table. 4.2. Economic Growth and Causation Test for Financial Indicators Pairwise Granger Causality Tests Date: 05/23/12 Time: 23:00 Sample: 1998Q1 2009Q4 Lags: 1 Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability 42 7.90027 0.00769 GROWTH1 does not Granger Cause EXCHANGELOG1 0.17014 0.68225 INTEREST1 does not Granger Cause GROWTH1 4.54812 0.03931 4.85088 0.03361 5.06493 0.03013 1.65679 0.20562 12.5469 0.00105 0.49030 0.48795 46 8.32617 0.00609 EXCHANGELOG1 does not Granger Cause INTEREST1 6.53786 0.01417 EXCHANGELOG1 does not Granger Cause GROWTH1 42 GROWTH1 does not Granger Cause INTEREST1 LOANSA1 does not Granger Cause GROWTH1 42 GROWTH1 does not Granger Cause LOANSA1 IMKBLOG1SA does not Granger Cause GROWTH1 42 GROWTH1 does not Granger Cause IMKBLOG1SA INTEREST1 does not Granger Cause EXCHANGELOG1 427 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo LOANSA1 does not Granger Cause EXCHANGELOG1 46 EXCHANGELOG1 does not Granger Cause LOANSA1 IMKBLOG1SA does not Granger Cause EXCHANGELOG1 46 EXCHANGELOG1 does not Granger Cause IMKBLOG1SA LOANSA1 does not Granger Cause INTEREST1 46 INTEREST1 does not Granger Cause LOANSA1 IMKBLOG1SA does not Granger Cause INTEREST1 46 INTEREST1 does not Granger Cause IMKBLOG1SA IMKBLOG1SA does not Granger Cause LOANSA1 LOANSA1 does not Granger Cause IMKBLOG1SA 46 0.25459 0.61644 5.22721 0.02722 0.27700 0.60138 1.60341 0.21224 1.15539 0.28842 7.51754 0.00887 0.43663 0.51228 0.09848 0.75518 0.79231 0.37835 1.39905 0.24338 Portfolio investments, which constitute one part of capital movements, have a one-way influnce on the followings; other investments, export/import ratio and capacity utilization rate. Other investments also have a one-way influence on economic growth. Furthermore, export/import ratio, capacity utilization rate, industrial production index and unemployment rate unilaterally affect other investments. Foreign investments unilaterally affect industrial production index. 4.5. Rating of Variables Rating the variables used in VAR method is applied for impulse-response functions which are used to specify the reactions of the variables to shocks. Rating should be from exogenous to endogenous. Assigning the correlation between exogenous and endogenous is done in connection with the reactions that variables give to temporary shocks. Whereas the most exogenous doesn’t react against the shocks stemmimg from other variables, the most endogenous reacts against shocks both from others and the ones coming from itself. Rating the variables is mostly decided through Granger Causation Analysis (Çiçek 2005:82–105). In Cholesky decomposition, impulse-response functions may change when the variables are rated differently (Güloğlu 2010:3). A correct rating must take place if the aim is a successful analysis of the reactions of variables to shocks. In this study, variables are rated from exogenous to endogenous using Granger Causation Test. 428 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Rating of real variables is as follows; direct investments, industrial production index, rate of capacity utilisation, growth, export/import ratio, unemployment rate ve other investments. Rating of variables is as follows; real exchange rate, foreign currency interest rate, 100 IMKB indexes. 4.6. Impulse-Response Functions Impulse-Response functions show how effective a standard deviation shock seen in one of the random error terms of VAR model findings might be both in the present and future values of endogenous variables. This decides whether the most effective variable could be used as a political tool or not. Cholesky decomposition is one of the common methods used in defining impulse-response coefficients, verticalising errors and diagonalising the acquired variancecovariance matrix. Moving average method is one of the useful ways to analyse the mutual interactions between xt and yt series. i coefficients are used to generalize the impacts of shocks in xt and yt on the series of xt and yt. Four elements of jk (0) matris are influence values.    xt   xt   11(i) 12 (i )          yt   y  i  0 21(i) 22 (i)    xt  i     yt  i  For instance, 12 (0) shows the impact of a unit shock in yt on xt serie. Again, it shows, respectively of 11 (1) ve 12 (1), the impact of a unit shock in xt-1 ve yt-1 on xt serie (Bozkurt 2007:94-98). Cumulative actions of xt and/or yt term are acquired through impulse-response functions’ sum of coefficients that their indexes match. For instance, it should be known that the item 12 (n) is the result of the impact of yt variation on xt+n after an n term. Therefore, the total n 12 (i) of cumulative actions of the term yt on xt serie after an n term is i  0 . Long term influence value is acquired when n stretches into infinity. Since the series xt and yt are n  i 0 2 jk (i ) accepted static, the sum of for all j ank k conditions is finite. Impulse-response function is the name given to 11 (i), 12 (i), 21 (i) and 22 (i) coefficients. (Bilgili vd. 2007:142-143). Whether capital movements have an impact on financial data was analysed through causation test in previous part. In this section, on the other hand, disposability of capital movements as a political tool was tried to test using the impulse-response analysis. Vector Moving Average (VMA) display format was used in order to show the possible reactions of real data to a standard deviation shock which may take place in capital movements through impulse-response analysis. Results were shown in figures 6.23, 6.24 and 6.25. In the graphics of impulse-response analysis, centerline shows point estimates and bottom and over lines show confidence interval of a standard error. 429 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 4.1. Impulse-Response Function Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E. Response of GROWTH1 to EXCHANGELOG1 Response of GROWTH1 to INTEREST1 .03 .03 .02 .02 .01 .01 .00 .00 -.01 -.01 -.02 -.02 -.03 -.03 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of GROWTH1 to LOANSA1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Response of GROWTH1 to IMKBLOG1SA .03 .03 .02 .02 .01 .01 .00 .00 -.01 -.01 -.02 -.02 -.03 -.03 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 In figure 4.1, reaction shown by economic growth to a shock of standard deviation in real dutch disease, foreign currency interest and IMKB 100 indexes is shown. Reactions given could be outlined as follows; Real dutch diseases positively affected the economic growth until the end of the second term. However, after the second term it couldn’t put a recognizable impact. Foreign currency interest rate negatively affected the economic growth until the third term. No significant connection between deposit bank loan and growth rate could be identified. The impact of IMKB 100 index on economic growth was positive until the end of the second term. However, after the third term this influnce disappeared. 430 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4.7. Stagnancy Test of VAR Model Stagnancy should be tested after the model is set up. Stagnancy of the model depends on eigenvalues of coefficient matrix. System gets stagnant once all eigenvalues of coefficient matrix exist within unit circle. When the eigenvalues of coefficient matrix exist outside the unit circle, then the system is not stagnant. This means that it is because of the facts that since all the eigenvalues of coefficient matrix are in the circle unit that the model is stagnant. Figure 4.2 Stagnancy Test for VAR Model Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 4.8. Autocorrelation Test of VAR Model In order to testify whether VAR model involved a problem in structural meaning, Autocorrelation Test – LM was conducted. The test, which was applied to specify whether the error terms found in VAR model were connected, reveals that there is no autocorrelation for 12 lags. Table. 4.3. Capital Movements and Autocorrelation-Lm Test for Real Data VAR Residual Serial Correlation LM Tests H0: no serial correlation at lag order h Date: 05/23/12 Time: 23:03 Sample: 1998Q1 2009Q4 Included observations: 42 Lags LM-Stat Prob 1 33.16078 0.1271 2 17.08283 0.8788 431 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3 18.71859 0.8104 4 31.84992 0.1624 5 23.28707 0.5608 6 25.88333 0.4138 7 25.45298 0.4372 8 15.74284 0.9223 9 30.50397 0.2060 10 23.30021 0.5600 11 31.83537 0.1628 12 25.43800 0.4381 Probs from chi-square with 25 df. 4.9. Heteroscedasticity Test Chi-Square value shows there is no heteroscedasticity problem in the model predicted. In other words, it reveals the fact that error term variance is the same for all observations. It can be seen that there is no heteroscedasticity according to the results of white heteroscedasticity test. Table. 4.4. Capital Movements and White Test for Real Data Joint test: Chi-sq df Prob. 160.3245 150 0.2672 4.10. Stability Tests Conducting CUSUM and CUSUM squere tests, it was attempted to study whether there was a structural break in the model and no break was identified. 432 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 4.2 Stability Tests 20 1.6 15 1.2 10 5 0.8 0 0.4 -5 -10 0.0 -15 -20 -0.4 00 01 02 03 04 CUSUM of Squares 05 06 07 5% Significance 08 00 01 02 03 CUSUM 04 05 06 07 08 5% Significance 5.CONCLUSION Economical activities in modern-day economies are under the influence of both real and financial data. In this analysis, it is observed that interest rates, exchange rates and stock market data influence economic growth. In a condition where bank loans are quite efficent in economical activities, changes in interest rates will influnce those activities. Real economical activities are really rapid in economies which are integrated into international system. Exchange rates, on the oher hand, have a decisive impact in this situation. Just as securities exchanges are affected by economic developments, economic life is also affected by the developments taking place in stock market. Economies which plan to achieve a steady and constant growth should also realize healthy and sustainable finacial data besides their real macro economic data. BIBLIOGRAPHY Bernanke, Ben S., ve Mark Gertler. (1995). “Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Cilt.9, No.4. s. 27-48 Bozkurt, H. (2007). Zaman Serileri Analizi, İstanbul: Ekin Kitabevi Cozier, B. ve Tkacz, G., (1994), “The Term Structure and Real Activity”. Working Paper 94103, Bank of Canada. Çetintaş, H. Barışık, S. Türkiye’de Bankalar, Sermaye Piyasası ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Analizi (1989-2000), İMKB Dergisi Cilt 7 Sayı 25-26 http://www.imkb.gov.tr/Libraries/imkbdergi/IMKB_Dergisi_Turkce25_26.sflb.ashx Çiçek, M. (2005). “Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması: VAR (Vektör Otoregresyon) Yaklaşımıyla Bir Analiz”. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, Sayı. 233. 433 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Gujarati D. N. (2009). Temel Ekonometri, İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık. David K. Backus. Kehoe, Patrick J. Kydland, Finn E (1992). International Real Business Cycles, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100, No. 4. s. 745-775, http://www.fperri.net/TEACHING/macrotheory08/bkk.pdf (16.05.2010) Estrella, A., ve Hardouvelis, G. A., (1991), “The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity”, Journal of Finance, 46, 555–576. Güloğlu, B. Vektör Otoregresif Modellerin Etki Tepki Fonksiyonlarının Güven Aralıklarının Güvenirliliği, http://www.ekonometridernegi.org/bildiriler/o15s1.pdf s.3 (18.08.2010) Harvey, C. R., (1988), “The Real Term Structure and Consumption Growth”, Journal of Financial Economics, 22, 305–333. Kamin S., Rogers J., 2000, The Asymmetric Effexts of Exchange Rate Fluctutations: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries, IMF Working Paper, WP/00/184 Mishkin, Frederic S. (1995). “Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Cilt. 9, No. 4, s. 3-10. Yentürk, N. (1997). “Finansal Serbestlik ve Makroekonomik Dengeler Üzerindeki Etkileri”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt 8, Sayı 27, , s.139–141 http://yaklasim.iibf.gazi.edu.tr/ciltler/8/27/8.pdf Analysis of Turkey’s Sustainable Development Performance at Last Decade by Applying Green Economy Indicators Yusuf Akan, İlyas Okumuş University of Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turkey E-mails:iokumus@gantep.edu.tr, yusufakan@gantep.edu.tr Abstract In recent years, sustainable development has become a worldwide discourse, driven by international treaties global environmental organizations and bodies such as European Union, OECD. Sustainable development is a concept to be analyzed aspects of economic, social, environmental and institutional. With the advents of sustainable development, green economic development has become one of the most important economic issues. Countries which target economic, social and institutional development should not neglect environmental development. Development of green economy is the best way of slowing the negative ecological and environmental impact. Developing countries neglect the protection of the natural environment in the process of rapid industrialization. As a result of this situation, natural resources rapidly run out and environmental quality begins to deteriorate. These negative results return a significant cost to society. In this study, Turkey economy which has averagely 5.5% economic growth in the last 10 years will be analyzed in terms of green economy indicators. Turkey is a highly suitable ecological condition for crop production, animal husbandry, fisheries and forestry activities because of its geographical position. The basic components of ecological conditions are climate, highly variable the shape of the earth, 434 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1350 Title A name given to the resource Economic Growth And Financial Indicators Connection Author Author Mustafa , Öztürk Abstract A summary of the resource. Real macro economic factors have always been accepted as main determinants of nations’ economies’. However, the development of financial markets and the rise of financial activities in globalizing world economies have led financial actors to affect nations’ economies’ more and more everyday. With the rise of liberalization process after 1980, the influences of financial developments rised in Turkey, too. In today’s world, the effects of financial factors on Turkish economy is more evident than any time. In this study, with the aim of detecting the effects of financial factors on Turkish economy, the relations between financial data as Exchange rates, interest rates and IMKB 100 index and economic growth has been analysed. Keywords: financial data, exchange rates, interest rates, economic growth, Vector Auto Regression Model (V.A.R). Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ca47367fc12c718a04e52eff8a13b8e4.pdf e6a473dee25303b5378c160659f9991a PDF Text Text Economic Importance and Using Purposes of Gypsophila L. and Ankyropetalum Fenzl (Caryophyllaceae) of Türkiye Mustafa Korkmaz Faculty of Science and Art, Department of Biology, Erzincan University, Türkiye korkmazmustafa67@yahoo.com.tr Hasan Özçelik Faculty of Science and Art, Department of Biology, Süleyman Demirel University, Türkiye ozcelik@fef.sdu.edu.tr Fevzi Özgökçe Faculty of Science and Art, Department of Biology, Erzincan University, Türkiye fozgokce@gmail.com Abstract: Gypsophila L. is the third biggest genus of Caryophyllaceae family in Türkiye. 55 species of the genus have been growing naturally in our country. 33 of them are endemic and total number of the taxa is 55. Ankyropetalum Fenzl is a small genus with 3 species and 1 of them is endemic. It is agreeable that gene center of the both genera is Türkiye. In terms of growing habitats there are large areas in Türkiye. According to importance order East, Central and Southeast Anatolia regions have the biggest number of taxa growing there. Ankyropetalum genus distributed only in the Southeast Anatolia and Mediterranean regions and in their intersection areas of Türkiye. Both of the genera have known as “çöven, çöğen”, halvah root and largened root parts or rhizomes are economically very important. Extracts produced from under parts of the plants known as fire extinguisher, gold polishing, silk and cloth cleaner and softener and crispness giving to halvah. These extracts have often used for making liqueur, preparing herbal cheese and making ice cream. Because of giving flavour, crispness and nice odor they generally preferred in food industry. With different ratios all of the taxa are boron (B) hyperacumulators. For this reason they can be used for destroyed agricultural areas. They can be planted to elevated slopes and hills to control erosion and survive biological diversity. General character of the family is their importance for horticulture. G. paniculata is very important for horticulture industry. In the presentation, some information about economic importance of the plants in the light of our observations and literatures were given. Key Words: Gypsophila, Ankyropetalum, Economy, Flora of Türkiye Introductıon Turkey is known as a gene centre of many economic groups of plants. In Turkey there are 32 genus and around 500 species of Caryophyllaceae family [1-6]. It is reported that the centres of some regions in which the species belonging to the Gypsophila genus are pervasive are Turkey, Caucasian, the North Iraq and the North Iran; that 75 out of 126 Gypsophila species in the world are found in this region and that in Turkey there have been found 55 Gypsophila species in 10 sections [7-8]. In the world Ankyropetalum genus has 4 species, and 3 of which grow in Turkey. The gene centre of both genus is Turkey.[9]. In general, soaproot is the woody roots of some perennial species of the genera Gypsophila L., Saponaria L., and Ankryopetalum Fenzl, belonging to the Caryophyllaceae family. However, Saponaria is not used as soaproot in Türkiye [10]. Turkish Çöven are commonly obtained from Gypsophila graminifolia Bark. G. arrostii Guss. var. nebulosa (Boiss. & Heldr.) Bark., G. eriocalyx Boiss., G. bicolor (Freyn & Sint.) Grossh., G. perfoliata L., G. venusta Fenzl subsp. venusta and Ankyropetalum gypsophiloides Fenzl. [7, 10]. But such species as G. 552 �ruscifolia Boiss. and G. bitlisensis Bark. are less preferred. Since 1800s soaproot has been exported from Anatolia (Turkey). The leading ones are G. bicolor, G. arrostii ve A. gypsophiloides (Radix Gyspohilae) [11-14]. For nearly 30 years the extraction of Çöven from natural flora has been increasingly continueing in the Eastern and South-east Anatolia [10]. Ankyropetalum Fenzl is represented by 3 species in Turkey. One of these is endemic and the others are not widespread. The genus is essentially pervasive in South-west Asia including Turkey. Regarding the phytogeography the genus grows in the South east of Turkey; that is in Iran-Turan and Mediterranen regions [14, 15]. The species belonging to the Ankyropetalum genus which is pervasive in Turkey are A. arsusianum Ky, A. reuteri Boiss.& Hausskn. (endemic) and A. gypsophiloides Fenzl. The genus is found in South-east Anatolia and its neighbour countries in borders [1, 14, 15]. The taxa belonging to the Ankyropetalum and Gypsophila genus and known and used by the public are generally known by the name “Çöven Otu” . As the Ankyropetalum genus’ members look like perennial Gypsophila species and as they are distinguished hardly, they are known by the same name and used for the same purposes. In Europe Gypsophila species are widely known as “Baby’s Breath”. For the word Gypsophila “Soaproot” or “Soapworth” words are used. In Turkey these plants are called “çöven otu, çevgen, dişi çöven, tarla çöveni, helva çöveni, şark çöveni” by the local public. It is reported that the saponins are found in the different parts of the plant in different doses; that they were first obtained by boiled alcohol from the risoms of Saponaria officinalis and that they are called “saponin” [11]. It is reported that as the roots of Soaproot are obtained from various Gypsophila species, the saponin amounts in the roots which are used in the trade differs between (4-)10-20(-25) % [22]. Used as Turkish Soaproot, in the Gypsophila bicolor (Van Çöveni) the saponin amounts have been found to be 20-25 %, in the G. arrostii var. nebulosa (Konya, Beyşehir, Isparta Çöveni) 19-22 %, in the G. perfiolata (Niğde Çöveni) 1519 % and in the G. eriocalyx (Çorum- Yozgat Çöveni) 10-14 % [17]. They have found out that in the G. paniculata the saponins synthesizes only in the roots and then moving through the other parts of the plant and that in dry material there is around 4 % saponin [20]. They report that in the Soaproot originated in Anatolia the amount of raw saponin is 10-25 %; and in their searches on the taxa of G. bicolor, G. perfoliata var. anatolica, G. venusta subsp. venusta, G. eriocalyx and G. arrostii var nebulosa which are pervasive in different parts of Turkey the amounts of saponin are respectively 19.58 %, 14.44 %, 12.65 %, 12.39 % and 11.58 % [20]; and the amounts of protein are respectively 8.01 %, 7.80 %, 8.38 %, 8.15 % and 6.92 % [7]. It is stated that in the roots of G. paniculata with the affect of the enzyme of UDPGlucuronosyltransferase the synthesis of saponin has been increased considerably and that in order to define the activity of this enzyme which has a versatile role in the plants the G. paniculata species would be a good model plant [17]. The Production of Soaproot Extract The roots and risoms of Soaproot ↓ Cut in the form of chips ↓ The first boiling (4-5) ↓ The second boiling ↓ The extract of Soaproot The extract of Soaproot whose production stages and chemical formule have been shown above is composed of sugar, resin and saponin. Saponins are highly moleculer glycosides which has the characteristic of solution in water and which are widely seen in some plants especially in Saponaria. It keeps the plant from germs and fungus and some species of it increases the nutritional value of plant as well as simplifying the digestion [18]. 553 �Where ıs soaproot used? Its usage in the food industry It is known that A. gypsophiloides was formerly exported from Siirt and Batman by caravans and that it is known by such names as “ Helva kökü, Çöven otu, Sabun otu, Helva otu” and that it is especially used in preparing a local food called “Siirt sweet”. A. reuteri is called “çöven” by the local public around Gölbaşı (Adıyaman); it is used for animal feding by mixing with straw and it is said that it was formerly used for the purpose of animal feding [9, 11,12]. In the Eastern Anatolia, the roots of some soaproots are used in preparing a local and origional food kind “herby cheese”. [8, 13-14]. The use of extract of Soaproot is firstly an obligation in making “tahin helvası (halvah)”. Otherwise it is impossible to make the halvah crisp. Apart from halvah, it is utilized for the production of “delight” and “icecream” and also in Thracian region because of its charasteristic of whitening wax and its power to make crisp soaproot is utilized in the “köpük halvah” which has a white and spumy form. Furthermore, in some parts of Turkey while making “hellim cheese” after soaproot is cooked it is added to the brine so that the cheese doesn’t spoil [8, 18, 19]. It is stated that the delight obtained by mixing syrup whitened by soaproot extract with pure delight is called “sultan delight” and that the maximum saponin amount should be 0.1 % [7]. The main reasons of why soaproot is most preferred for the halvah production are those; the saponin in the soaproot whitens the sugar wax, saponin softens the sugar and makes like sponge, and it has a function like emulgator by enabling the sesame oil to mix with sugar. In halvah production the amounts used are respectively 52-65 % tahini, 35-48 % sugar, 0.5 % soaproot [17]. In the production of “köpük halvah” soaproot and sugar are boiled in water and added after it takes the wax form. Soaproot water is used in production of “köpük halvah” which is half-liquid and has a little hard stiffness. When adding soaproot water there are two elements to be taken into consideration; firstly, its amount shouldn’t exceed the avarage level and second, when adding soaproot the pot should be covered. Otherwise the air absorbed leads to overbubbling. When making “köpük halvah” it can be used about 60- 65 % glycose syrup, 30- 35 % water and 0.01 % soaproot water [18]. Some kinds of Gypsophila arrostii var. nebulosa are economically valuable and in Konya and Beyşehir it is called “dişi çöven (female soaproot)” because of its multiplying fast. Roots of the other soaproots known as “erkek çöven (male soaproot)” are not widely used in trade. In their rhizomes there are saponin, resin and sugar. Because they are widely used in production of “tahini halvah” in Turkey and Near East they are called “helvacı çöveni (halvah soaproot)”. In some of our cities and in Cybrus in order that the “hellim cheese” which is boiled and made salted does not spoil, soaproot root is added to its water. In Thracia region a white spumy halvah known as “köpük halvah” is produced by soaproot [20]. Its Usage in The Chemistry and hygiene Industry Soaproots are also used in the manufacturing of Saponin which is a valuable chemical substance [8, 21]. Saponins are components which have pervaded in wide districts, which are in the form of heavy molecular steroidal or triterpenoid glycsides and which have a great biological activity on plants, insects, fungus and microorganisms. Their lower doses helps the plants have roots; however higher doses decreases root growing [7]. As quoted from Çevrimli (1990); it is expressed that because of the negative impacts of alkil and aril sulfanat types of detergants on environmental pollution and human health, the usage of saponin present in G. arrostii as an active surface substance of detergant will be more benefical, the saponin present in the plant will be easily used as an active surface substance in both extinguishers and soap industry, and that in the plant rhizomes there has been found around 18 % saponin [7]. Because it has a good characteristic of bubbling, soaproot is being utilized for soap, shampoo materials or fabric softener in hygiene industry. In the cool water obtained from the soaproot roots boiled, the silky and delicate fabrics and the other fabrics which are otherwise deteriorated are cleaned. Fabrics or clothes are cleaned by being dipped into the cool water obtained and are kept waiting for a few hours without spoiling their colors and brightness. Moreover, in some regions they are used in order to clean the wool obtained from the animals. [8, 18, 19]. The undersoil parts of G. arrostii have been used as a cleaner and a removal of stain since ancient times. [21]. Its Usage In Medicine It is reported that in the antraks vaccine which is against Antraks disease seen among animals and which is produced in Turkey, the saponin amount has been found to be % 0.1- 0.5. It has been found out that saponins 554 �are in the seeds, limbs, leaves, flowers and roots of plants; and that when the plants containing saponin are eaten by animals, the bitter-flavoured saponins have irritated mucosa cells in throat. Such types as G. paniculata and G. arrostii are used as a cough and respiration system diseases deterrent besides being used as a myx remover [7]. Soaproot has some features such as urine remover, exudative and myx remover [18]. As for drug, it has a function in some drugs compound when they are brewed because of its characteristics such as myx and urine remover [19]. Its Antimicrobial Effect It is known that saponin has an antimicrobial effect and it keeps the plants against some insects in soil. Besides this, it is estimated that it has a role of increasing the plant resistance in some parts of plants. It is reported that in the soil in which the plant containing saponin grows there has been found to be saponin in certain amounts and this saponin in the soil has some impacts on some bacteria. It has been found that Aquaspirillum dispar and Aquaspirillum spp. soil bacteria have been in great numbers in the roots of G. paniculata [7]. In the search of Gypsophila species’ antiviral impacts it has been expressed that G. arrostii var. nebulasa, G. bicolor, G. perfoliata and G. eriocalyx species have impacts on V. stomatitis virus, that they have no impact on Parafainfluenza type-1 virus and that the G. bicolor species has effectiveness against the other viruses (Poliovirüs tip-1, Herpes simplex tip-1 ve tip-2, Vesicular stomatitis ve Influenza A ) except 2 Parafainfluenza type-1 virus [7, 22]. Its Usage in Horticulture Gypsophila species are regarded as one of the most important alternatives of product diversification in the sector of flower cutting. G. paniculata species used as fresh and dry cut flower attract attention as being one of the most indispensable elements of arrangement and bouquet in domestic market [7, 8]. It has been reported that in Eurasia continent there have been found to be 125 species of Gypsophila, that the most significant of those to be used as ornamental is G. paniculata; that although the plant is perennial it has been grown annual and that because it cannot enable blossoming in short time and because it has no genetic evolution it is more advantagous to multiply it by cutting. It has been expressed that G. paniculata species has a great importance in the trade of cut flower; that although with the reparation studies the desired plants have been obtained, from these plants whose seeds are cultivated the desired plants will not be able to obtained and that they may have genetic evolution so the plants should be grown with vegetative organs. They have found that in the G. paniculata species which is used in horticulture their harvest should be done when their petals have exceeded 50 % blossoming, the vase lifespan in plants has reached about 55 days with the blossoms of buds in vase and that during 82 days the flower harvest can be done on plants. In Gypsophila paniculata species which is used in horticulture in the flower buds, the flowers should be harvested when they blossomed 30 % and so the vase lifespan increases. They have informed that because in coastal regions of Mediterranen the floral deportation obtained in unit area for the production of G. paniculata will be more it can be advised to cultivate around coastal parts of The Mediterranen Region [7]. Its Usage in Mining As a result of the studies on natural-growing 4 Gypsophila species in the district of boron (B) mine in Eskişehir Kırka; it has been observed that G. sphaerocephala Fenzl ex Tchihat. var. sphaerocephala and G. perfoliata have been the first ones which have a characteristics of a potential boron hyperaccumulator. These species grow successfully in concentrations as high total soil boron (8900 mg/kg-1) and suitable soil boron (277 mg/kg-1). As a result of the analysis conducted, it has been found out that in the upper soil parts of the G. Sphaerocephala it has contained B in extremely high concentrations (in seeds; 2093 ± 199 SD mg / kg-1; in leaves; 3345 ± 341 SD mg / kg-1), but in roots it has contained far less concentrations of B (51 ± 11 SD mg kg1). In the respect of Boron amount this has been followed by G. perfoliata. It has been stated that by growing G. sphaerocephala in the soils which have some signs of high B toxid, vegetative mining can be conducted by hyperaccumulation and the soils containing boron in toxic amounts can be refined by vegetative ways [23]. In this way the agricultural fields in which fertilizers have long been used can be prevented to become barren and during reparation process it will be possible to evaluate the agricultural fields which have become dormant. Its Other Usages Apart from these, the cool water obtained from the boiling of soaproot roots is used in the process of whitening gold and treasuers. Furthermore this solution is used as spray in the structure of film emilsion and 555 �extinguishers. It is known that the rhizomes of perennial soaproot sold to Israel from Isparta are used in the production of extinguishers [7, 8, 21]. Pıckıng, dryıng and storıng the plants Because the subsoil parts of the plants are generally utilized, from just after the precipitation season to the time of plant’s fruit; that is between May- July the plants are picked. The local public utilizes its root when its leaves are on land area or when they are in the time of blossoming; they can distinguish Gypsophila species between others and they can extract its rhizomes by means of such tools as anchor. Because the subsoil parts of the plant are also picked, with an unconscious picking they are endangered. The roots which are picked are cleaned and after washing them, they are dried under sun. In order to dry well and in order to enable some fresh air during this process the rhizomes shouln’t be laid down thick. The subsoil organs are brought in bundles and are stored in suitable, dry and moisture free places [19]. It is reported by Anonim (2006) that in the roots of soaproot plant which can be grown in barren and hillside areas there have been foud to be some dryings because of extreme damp; that it is not suitable to harvest them before four years old; that their trade situation should be considered before harvesting and if necessary the product should be waited in the field; that the roots extracted by fork or tractor plough have dried in 2-3 months and from 2.5 kg raw root about 1 kg dry root has been obtained; and that in one decare of field totally 4000-5000 kg dry roots are extracted [7]. The trade of soaproot and ıts standart There is not a general accepted standart for the roots of soaproot but they can be classified in three different qualities in terms of commercial purposes according to where they grow: those growing in Van-Isparta are of the 1. quality, those obtained from Niğde are of 2. quality and those obtained from Yozgat-Çorum are of 3. quality [19]. In the usage of soaproot in industry, the hemolysis and bubble indexes of them; as for in food industry the bubble indexes are of importance. So, in the quality evaluation these rates should be taken into consideration. Both the bubble and hemolysis indexes of Van (G. bicolor) and Isparta-Beyşehir (G. arrostii) are high. Also their raw saponozite rates are more than the others. Species Hemolysis index Bubble index % Raw saponozit G. bicolor G. arrostii var. nebulosa G. perfoliata var. anatolica G. eriocalyx 6.667- 6.925 5.295- 6.667 9.778-10.000 3.385- 3.659 9.000-10.000 9.600-10.034 4.650 - 5.000 1.800- 2.000 20-25 19-22 15-19 10-14 Table 1. The Analysis of Turkish soaproot [22] Isparta-Beyşehir Gypsophila (G. arrostii) has decreased extremely on the market. There is still Van Soaproot (G. bicolar) on market and is sold as being the first quality. The oldest commercial soaproot is this species, so its population has damaged greatly. But this species has been produced in fields (Atabey Plain) by some farmers. Furthermore, Isparta General Directorate of Forestry cultivated about 15-20 kg seeds 3 years ago in order to be a financial support in the future and to enable the continuation of the species generation for Sütçüler and Aksu villagers. The hemolysis index of Niğde soaproot (G. perfoliata var. anatolica) is high but its bubble index and raw saponozit percentage is low. Despite its features similar to 1. quality, it should be regarded as second quality. Çorum-Yozgat G soaproot (G. eriocalyx) is one type of soaproot having the lowest rates. In these respects it should be regarded as the third quality [22]. They are exported to many countries includin Germany, Egypt, Greece at the outset [19]. Between 1989-1996 the avarege annual export of soaproot root was 140 tonnes. In 1997 it decreased to 93.3 tonnes. Today, every year the avarege export of soaproot root from Turkey is about 90 tonnes. In 2004 80000 dollars have been earned from the soaproot exportation for 85 ton. According to the statistics of 2005 92 tonnes of 556 �soaproot roots were exported from Turkey by taking 66 000 dollars in return. In 2006 despite 153 tonnes exportation the income was 61 000 dollars in an unparallel way [7, 24]. Discussion and advices Six of species growing in Turkey has a high economic value. Besides picking plants in an uncontrollable way from nature, industrialisation and urbanisation, extension of agricultural fields and extreme grazing, tourism, the reparation of barren fields, agricultural struggle and pollution, unconscious forestation and fires are leading factors that threaten the plants in our country [7]. Because many natural plants used in medicine, exported and and used traditionally are constantly being picked from nature, are exported and used in domestic market, they are increasingly disappearing [7]. Soaproot plants have been utilized in medicine, food, hygiene, as ornamentals in parks and gardens, in chemistry industry in order to produce saponin. It has the ability to extinguish the fires, whiten gold, clean silky and delicate fabrics. It also enables cleaning the contaminated soil by removing the boron which is in great amount in our country. They are clened by cultivating G. sphaerocephala and Gypsophila species. Also it is possible to make vegetative mining by boron hypercumulation to the upper surface of the plant on soil. Because they are utilized in many different areas, agriculturalists, food engineers, chemists, pharmacists, landscapists, textile workers and jewellers are all interested in them [7]. In Turkey the general name of Gypsophila, Ankyropetalum ve Saponaria species are “ çöven ”. But some researchers name those whose subsoil parts are economically valuable as “çöven”. Regarding this soaproot is the name of a raw material and is an extract obtained from a plant [9]. Turkish soaproot is widely obtained from 6 Gypsophila (G. graminifolia, G. bicolor, G. arrostii var. nebulosa, G. eriocalyx, G. perfoliata var. anatolica ve G. venusta ) and 1 Ankyropetalum (A. gypsophiloides species. The gene centre of both species is Turkey [9]. Gypsophila species yielding soaproot, their locations and some properties are as below [25]. G. bicolor (Turkish names: Van çöveni, Tarla çöveni): This species is distributed around Van, Bitlis and Artvin provinces. The rhizomes are hard and difficult to break. Saponin content is 20 %-25 %. This value is higher than that in other soaproot yielding plants. This is the most preferred soaproot, also known as the soaproot of the highest quality. G. arrostii var. nebulosa (Turkish name: Beyşehir çöveni, Konya çöveni): Saponin content is 19%-22%. This is also considered to be of good quality.; This species also has a narrow distribution. Halvah makers in Konya especially use this soaproot. G. eriocalyx (Turkish name: Çorum-Yozgat çöveni): Grows around Ankara, Çankırı, Çorum, Eskişehir, Kayseri, Sivas and Yozgat provinces in steppe habitats with gypsum. This is an endemic species. G. perfoliata (Turkish name: Niğde çöveni): Grows around Ankara, Kayseri, Sivas, Erzincan, Konya, Niğde, and Denizli provinces. It is considered to be of 3rd quality. G. venusta subsp. venusta (Turkish name: Konya çöveni): Grows around Ankara, Çankırı, Konya, Gaziantep, Urfa, Sivas, Malatya, and Erzurum provinces in stepe habitats or arable fields, and yield soaproot. G. graminifolia (Turkish name: Başkale çöveni, Dağ çöveni): This local endemic species also grows in Van province, around Başkale. Three species of Ankyropetalum genus grow naturally in Turkey; all of them are endemic. However, only A. gypsophiloides rhizomes are known, with the name “helva (halvah) root” around Siirt province and used as soaproot. A. gypsophilloides (Turkish name: Siirt çöveni, Helvacı çöveni, Helva kökü): This species grows around Şanlıurfa, Mardin, Gaziantep, Batman, and Siirt provinces. Its roots are collected in Siirt and used by local halvah producers. [12]. Because the roots of these plants are generally used, the harvest time is in March-June months and thus because the plants don’t produce seeds they don’t enable seeds for the latter year. These plants which are constantly taken from nature both exported and used in domestic consumption and whose economic value is extremely high, are increasingly disappearing and are on the verge of extinction. This problem becomes more important especially when the plants are endemic. Except for the G. paniculata which is used for cut flower and cultivated, Gypsophila species which are used for exportation and domestic consumption and some of which are endemic are taken directly from natue. This brings the danger of extinction with itself. Although economically important, these plants are a source of biological richness in Turkiye. Most of them are endemic species having narrow distributions. Since they are not cultivated but collected directly from nature, populations of these plants in nature deteriorate, their generations diminish or become extinct, and the balance of nature is disturbed. Since only roots and not the aerial parts are collected destruction is an even more important problem. According to some trading companies cheaper soaproot having better quality is being imported from Afghanistan, and re-exported after the extraction of their juices. This soaproot juice (extract) is 557 �sold to halvah producers in Türkiye. So there is no need to collect soaproot in Turkey anymore. Soaproot has been collected for years due to the high unemployment rate in the region, and the demand. In order to preserve these species and also have regular exports, feasibility studies should be conducted and a determined quantity of a given quality should be cultivated. Soaproot should not only be collected from nature and its cultivation should be scheduled. Decrease in collection due to decreasing demand and soaproot imports from Afghanistan are good news. Soaproot imports may stop some day, but soaproot usage will continue and so we should take necessary precautions. Soaproot collection in Turkey should be stopped or at least alternation should be applied to collection areas. Cultivation of soaproot yielding plants, should be studied and encouraged. Standardised extract of soaproot should be prepared. Soaproot yielding other perennial species and their saponin contents should be determined and new soaproot resources should be identified, and their cultivation and marketing possibilities should be studied. Informtions must be given to our puplic to preserve our biological richness [ 25]. Acknowledgement This study is a part of the project numbered TÜBĐTAK-TBAG 107 T 147, which is supported by TÜBĐTAK, and themed “Revision of Gypsophila L. and Ankyropetalum Fenzl (Caryophyllaceae) Genera and Determination of Saponin Level”. We are much obliged to the support provided by this institution. References [1] Davis, P.H., (ed). 1965-1988. Flora of Turkey and the East Aegean Islands, Vol.:1-10, Edinburgh Univ. Press. [2] Williams, F. N., 1989. Revision of The Forms of The Genus Gypsophila L., Jown Bot. London, 27: 321-329. [3] Chopra, G.L., 1966. Angiosperms (Systematic & Life-Cycle), s: 85. [4] Lawrence, H.M.G.,1951. Taxonomy of Vascular Plants. Cornell University, Newyork, s: 486–488. [5] Huber-Morath, A., 1967. Gypsophila L., Ankyropetalum Fenzl in Davis, P.H.(ed.). Flora of Turkey and the East Aegean Islands, Vol: pp. 147-171. Edinburgh University Press. Edinburgh. [6] Güner, A., Özhatay, N., Ekim, T., Başer, K.H.C., 2000. Flora of Turkey and the East Aegean Islands, Vol.:11, Edinburgh University Press. Edinburgh. [7] Đnan, M., 2006. Çukurova Koşullarında Farklı Kökenli Gypsophila L. Türlerinde Kök Verimleri ve Saponin Đçeriklerinin Araştırılması. Çukurova Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Tarla Bitkileri A. B. Dalı (Doktora Tezi). [8] Korkmaz, M., 2007. Türkiye’ de Yetişen Tek Yıllık Gypsophila L. (Caryophyllaceae) Taksonları Üzerinde Biyosistematik Çalışmalar, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Isparta, 248 s. (Doktora Tezi). [9] Özçelik, H., Muca, B., 2010. Ankyropetalum fenzl (caryophyllaceae) cinsine ait türlerin türkiye’deki yayılışı ve habitat özellikleri, nobel dergisi( bibad) [10] Kılıç, C.S., Koyuncu, M., Güvenç, A., 2008. Soaproot Yielding Plants of East Anatolia and Their Potential in Nature, Turk. J. Bot. 32(2008) 489- 494. [11] Baytop, T., 1984. Türkiye’de Bitkiler Đle Tedavi, Đstanbul Üniversitesi Yayınları, s: 213-214, Đstanbul. [12] Öztürk, M., Özçelik, H., 1991. Doğu Anadolu’nun Faydalı Bitkileri (Useful Plants of East Anatolia) SĐSKAV Yayınları, Semih Ofset ve Matbaacılık, Ankara. [13] Özçelik, H., Özgökçe, F., 1999. Gypsophila bitlisensis Bark. ve Gypsophila elegans M.Bieb. Üzerinde Morfolojik, Taksonomik ve Ekolojik Araştırmalar, 1st International Symposium on Protection of Natural Environment and Ehrami Karaçam, 23-25th September 1999, Kütahya / Türkiye, 295- 313. [14] Özçelik, H., Özgökçe, F., 1995. Taxonomic Contributions to Genus Gypsophila L.(Caryophyllaceae) from East Anatolia (Turkey), IV th Plant Life in Soutwest and Central Asia (Ed. M.Öztürk, Ö. Seçmen and G.Görk), Ege Univ. Pres, Đzmir, Türkiye, 195- 209. [15] Afifi, F.U., Abu-Irmaileh, B., 2000. Herbal Medicine In Jordan With Special Emphasis on Less Commonly Used Medicinal Herbs, Journal of Ethnopharmacology, 72, 101–110. 558 �[16] Boissier, E., 1867. Flora Orientalis, Vol: 1, s: 532-534, Genevae. [17] H´erold, M-C., & Henry M., 2001. UDP-Glucuronosyltransferase activity is correlated to saponin roduction in Gypsophila paniculata root in vitro cultures, Biotechnology Letters, 23: 335–337, Netherlands. [18] Anonim, 2010. www.hammaddeler.com.tr [19] Orman Genel Müdürlüğü, 1991. Ülkemizde Bazı Önemli Orman Tali Ürünlerinin Teşhis ve Tanıtım Kılavuzu, Orman Bakanlığı, Ankara. [20] Battal, H., 2002. A Research on the production of a soapwort extract, Ankara University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences. Department of Food Engineering. Master Thesis. Ankara, Turkey, pp: 44 . [21] Anonymus, 2010. www.bibilgi.com/ÇÖVEN-(ÇÖĞEN)-OTU-(Gypsophila arrostii) [22] Sezik, E., 1982. The Origin and the Quality of the Turkish Soaproots. J. Fac Pharm Ankara 12: 41-54. [23] Babaoğlu, M., Gezgin, S., Topal, A., Sade, B., Dural, H., 2004. Gypsophila sphaerocephala Fenzl ex Tchihat.: A Boron Hyperaccumulator Plant Species That May Phytoremediate Soils with Toxic B Levels, Turk J Bot, 28 (3): 273-278. [24] Anonymus, 2009, Dış Ticaret Đstatistikleri, 2009. [25] Koyuncu, M., Kılıç, C.S., Güvenç, A., 2008. Soaproot Yielding Plants of East Anatolia and Their Potential in 559 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 600 Title A name given to the resource Economic Importance and Using Purposes of Gypsophila L. and Ankyropetalum Fenzl (Caryophyllaceae) of Türkiye Author Author Korkmaz, Mustafa Özçelik, Hasan Özgökçe, Fevzi Abstract A summary of the resource. Gypsophila L. is the third biggest genus of Caryophyllaceae family in Türkiye. 55 species of the genus have been growing naturally in our country. 33 of them are endemic and total number of the taxa is 55. Ankyropetalum Fenzl is a small genus with 3 species and 1 of them is endemic. It is agreeable that gene center of the both genera is Türkiye. In terms of growing habitats there are large areas in Türkiye. According to importance order East, Central and Southeast Anatolia regions have the biggest number of taxa growing there. Ankyropetalum genus distributed only in the Southeast Anatolia and Mediterranean regions and in their intersection areas of Türkiye. Both of the genera have known as “çöven, çöğen”, halvah root and largened root parts or rhizomes are economically very important. Extracts produced from under parts of the plants known as fire extinguisher, gold polishing, silk and cloth cleaner and softener and crispness giving to halvah. These extracts have often used for making liqueur, preparing herbal cheese and making ice cream. Because of giving flavour, crispness and nice odor they generally preferred in food industry. With different ratios all of the taxa are boron (B) hyperacumulators. For this reason they can be used for destroyed agricultural areas. They can be planted to elevated slopes and hills to control erosion and survive biological diversity. General character of the family is their importance for horticulture. G. paniculata is very important for horticulture industry. In the presentation, some information about economic importance of the plants in the light of our observations and literatures were given. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2010-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ae64499ae7fda0588eabac76bbde613c.pdf 26f4e4ce4990915e5856b0f40f577319 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Economic Structure in a Rural Area in the 19th Century: A Comparison of Eleven Villages of Bartın District of Viranşehir Sanjak Ramazan Arslan Department of Economics, Bartın University, Bartın, Turkey E-mail: rarslan@bartin.edu.tr Abstract This study aims to examine the existing economic structure of a rural area of Ottoman Empire in 19th century. The sample field of the study is eleven villages of Bartın district, a significant coastal town of Ottoman Empire. Voluntary sampling was used in choosing the villages and attention was paid on choosing villages which could reflect the overall situation of the region in terms of economic structure. By looking into the Temettüat registers of the examined district for the year 1844, these results were tried to be identified. Keywords: Bartin district, Temettüat Registers, 19th Viranşehir Sanjak, Economic Structure,. Century, Ottoman Empire, In the periods before the reign of Ottoman Empire, states took in a set of inventories in order to produce social, economic, financial and military policies. It is known that one of these inventories was made in Old Egypt between 2500 – 3000 B.C. (Barkan, 2000, p. 181). In order to keep the Empire under control, Ottoman Empire developed a set of specific inventory systems (İnalcık, 1996, p.IX). Rapid increase in the number of soldiers with constant salaries in Ottoman army was placing a serious burden on the budget and forcing the central government to find more money income (Pamuk, 2007a, pp. 119-121). In order to resolve these problems in the financial structure, various measures such as creating lease holding system and transferring resources from the treasure were taken (Genç, 2000, p.101) and as it is known, finally, foreign borrowing was tried (Tabakoğlu, 1985, pp. 296-297). Although Ottoman bureaucracy was hesitant about foreign borrowing for a long period, in a short time foreign borrowing turned out to be the most frequently used method for budget deficits (Pamuk, 2007b, pp.144-145). Besides, solution seeking in financial field continued through reforms in budget and tax issues (Güran, 1989, pp 7-17), and instead of civil tax a new single tax called “Proportionate Tax” was brought in. In the 19th century, there had been significant differences in the economic structure of the government and significant changes occurred in traditional Ottoman regime (Pamuk, 2002, p.241). Beginning with Tanzimat possession inventories were made in Hüdâvendigar (Bursa), Ankara, Aydın, Izmir, Konya and Sivas cities (Çadırcı, 1987, p.190). Again in the same period tax resources were determined again by new tax regulations (Tabakoğlu, 2003, p.169), and thus, as a result of property, land, cattle and 67 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Temettüat inventories, Temettüat registers were formed. Temettüat inventories were made in order to determine the financial situation of the public, to establish a fair tax system and to increase public revenues; and the disrupted financial system was tried to be tinkered (Öztürk, 2000, p.550). After the inventory in 1840, all personal assets, real estate, land, cattle, product etc. information were recorded for each house in 1844 in each residential area like districts and villages. Classification of Temettüat registers were grounded on administrative partition and these registers were alphabetically prepared for each province. Total number of Temettüat Registers between 1844- 1845 is 17.747 (Başbakanlık Osmanlı Arşivi Rehberi, 2000, p.254). The main source of this research which aims to look into the properties of the existing economic structure of a rural area in the Ottoman Empire in the nineteenth century is the Temettüat Register no 02824 recorded at the ML.VRD.TMT. fund of Prime Ministry Ottoman Archive. Bartın, which was a significant coastal city of Ottoman Empire during the period (especially in lumbering) is chosen as the sample field for this study. Bartın, today, is one of Turkey’s cities in the West Black Sea Region. Rumor has it that the name Bartın comes from the mythological Greek word “Parthenios”, which means “river”. Bartın, which had fell under the domination of various states at different times in history, was annexed to the Ottoman Empire with the conquest of Amasra by Mehmet the Conqueror ( II. Mehmed) in 1461 (Bartın Rehberi, 1927, p.8). After annexed to the Ottoman Empire, Bartın was taken into the Bolu district of Anatolian Governorship; it became a town in 1867 and its municipal organization was founded in 1876. In 1920 it was joined to Zonguldak lieutenant governor, then after Zonguldak became a city in 1924, Bartın turned to be a district of the city and in 1991, Bartın itself became a city. Today Bartın has 4 districts which are: Center, Amasra, Ulus and Kurucaşile; 9 municipalities including Arıt, Kozcağız, Kumluca and Abdipaşa towns; and 262 villages (Bartın Valiliği, 2011). 1.INCOME SOURCES Income sources in an economy differ according to sectors and locations. Villages or if we are to say it with a more general expression, rural areas are small residential areas where there is no specialization in economic life and indeed, it is not necessarily needed, where production is at the level of earning one’s keep, and where agriculture and husbandry are important income sources (Öztürk, 1996, p.109). These residential areas also inform us about the agriculture in the Ottoman Empire. The economic structure of Ottoman Empire which was based on agriculture in general also draws attention in the 11 residential area we work on. Besides, it is also seen that lumbering is placed on the top as a source of income. 68 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.1.Number of Residential Areas In this study, the records of 11 villages annexed to Bartın township, chosen as the sample field of the study, and registered to Temettüat Register no 02824 recorded at the ML.VRD.TMT. were examined and the features of the economic structure in a rural area of the Ottoman Empire in the midst of the nineteenth century were tried to be put forward. The villages used in this study are: “Mekeçler” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.4-10), “Kurtköy” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, p.11-16), “Receb Beşeoğlu” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp. 17-21), “Gedikler” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.22-24), “Çayır” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.25-32), “Bonlar” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.32-34), “Kıran” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.35-39), “Hoşafçılar” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.40-41), “Emiroğlu” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.42-43), “Pınarlı” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.44-49) and “Akmescid’’ (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.49-50). Aforementioned rural area has 154 tax-paying houses and all of people living in these houses are Muslim. 1.2.Resource Balance Income from lumbering has an important share in the distribution of income sources in the rural area and it takes the first place. We collected all relevant We put all lumbering-relevant incomes in Temettiat register under the same topic. Revenue from lumbering within the total product was 59,69% in 1260/1844 in Bartın rural area. (graphic 1) And this shows that lumbering is an important income source in our study field. Forestland in Bartin is one of the most interesting and among the richest forestlands in Turkey in terms of plant and tree species diversity (Bartın Valiliği, 2011). Agricultural income is the second income source for rural areas. The rate is 33.51%. In this context, income from fields, vegetable gardens and grape vines are included in agricultural income sources. The reason for agricultural income to take the second place as an income source can be explained with the economic properties of the region. Income rate from being a laborer is 4,66%. Laborer which means worker (Devellioğlu, 2005, p.31) has been a considerable income source in villages. Income from husbandry, on the other hand, is the last item in income resources in the region with a rate of 2.14%. Due to rich pastures and humid climate, bovine breeding is widespread in the region. In the graphic below, the distribution of income sources of the rural area is given. Graphic 1: Breakdown of Income Resources (%) 69 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In the distribution of incomes, large amount of income is obtained from lumbering in villages. Lumbering transportation has an important share in all villages. It is 38,89%. Income obtained from lumber milling has the second place with a ratio of 36,65%. Income from both lumbering and its transportation takes the third place as an income source. Lumber trading is only done in Akmescid village. 1.3.Distribution of Income Sources by villages In all village settlements income from lumbering has an important share as a source of income. Mekeçler Village had the highest agricultural income among total product across the villages. Income from lumbering amounted 58,04% in this village. The lowest agricultural income was in Kıran Village with a rate of 30,04%. Income from husbandry among total product was the highest in Akmescid Village with the rate of Graphic 2: Breakdown of Lumbering Income Resource (%) 2,14% and lowest in Mekeçler village with 0,21%. There was no income obtained from husbandry in Hoşaflar Village. There was no laborer income in three villages in all sources. Laborer income was the highest in Recep Beşoğlu Village. When income from lumbering is looked into in total product in all villages, it has a big share of 59,69%. Among villages, Kıran village had the highest income from lumbering with a rate of 66,52%. Table 1: Distribution of Income Sources by villages Villages Agricultural Income (Kurus) % Husbandry Income (Kurus) % Labor Income (Kurus) % Lumbering Income (Kurus) % Unexpected (Kurus) % Total (Kurus) Mekeçler 5.914 37.56 50 0.32 450 2.86 9.330 59.26 0 0.00 15.744 Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu 4.512 37.78 125 1.05 500 4.19 6.807 56.99 0 0.00 11.944 4.392 34.62 144 1.14 1.600 12.61 6.551 51.64 0 0.00 12.687 Karagedikler 2.649 36.08 44 0.60 700 9.53 3.950 53.79 0 0.00 7.343 Karaçayır 4.166 34.64 59 0.49 1.250 10.40 6.550 54.47 0 0.00 12.025 Bonlar 2.467 39.77 36 0.58 0 0.00 3.700 59.65 0 0.00 6.203 Kıran 4.019 30.04 111 0.83 150 1.12 8.901 66.52 200 1.49 13.381 761 37.84 0 0.00 0 0.00 1.250 62.16 0 0.00 2.011 Hoşafçılar 70 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Emiroğlu Pınarlı 2.269 35.72 154 2.42 0 0.00 3.930 61.86 0 0.00 6.353 4.646 33.60 132 0.95 150 1.08 8.900 64.36 0 0.00 13.828 Akmescid 11.153 33.51 713 2.14 1.550 4.66 19.870 59.69 0 0.00 33.286 TOTAL 46.948 34.83 1.568 1.16 6.350 4.71 79.739 59.15 200 0.15 134.805 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50. 1.4.Income Distribution by Houses Income per capita is an important indicator of the level of the welfare of the people of a country. The amount of income per capita is directly related to the economic structure of a country and rises in income shows the progress of the financial development move of a country (Öztürk, 1996, p.115). Since the sources we use include the incomes of the tax payers, the people the people we include here will be tax-paying houses. Table 2: Total Income of the Villages and Income per House Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Kıran Hoşafçılar Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid TOTAL Number of Houses 20 18 12 8 22 6 13 5 6 17 26 153 Total Income 23.426 11.944 12.687 7.343 12.025 6.203 13.381 2.011 6.353 13.828 33.286 142.487 Income per House 1.171 664 1.057 918 547 1.034 1.029 402 1.059 813 1.280 931 In Village Average + + + + + + Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Income per house in the rural area was found as 931 kurus. Among the total 11 villages 6 of the villages were recorded to have an income above the average and 5 of them were recorded to have an income below the average. Income per house was the highest in Akmescid Village with an average income of 1,280 kurus per house. And, the lowest average income, on the other hand, was in Hoşaflar Village with 402 kurus per house. The reason behind the high rate of average income in Akmescid village is that lumbering trade is only made in this village. In general, there are no significant differences between the averages of plus and minus income groups. It is possible to say that the income levels of the houses in the same group are close to each other. 71 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.LAND DISTRIBUTION Total land recorded for agricultural purposes ( as fields and vegetable gardens) in village settlements was 2033 decare. These lands are 100% planted areas.2 All the lands in the villages were used for planting cereals, vineyards, vegetable gardens. 93,21% (1895 decare) of the agricultural lands were fields and 6,79% (138 decare) of the lands were vegetable gardens. This shows that agricultural production is the second source of income in the region after lumbering. 2.1.Distribution of land by villages and the amount of land per house In this part, land shares, amount of planted areas and their shares among the total 2033 decare agricultural area will be emphasized. 100% of the 2033 decare land that villages have are planted areas. There are no lands allowed to lie for fallow. Total land amount per taxpaying houses is 13,29 decares (Özlü, 2008, p.118).3 Graphic 3: Agricultural Distribution of Lands (%) Akmescid Village has the highest share in land distribution. Total land amount of this village is 422 decares. The village with the lowest amount of land is Hoşafçılar village with 21 decares. When we look into the amount of land per house, Bonlar Village has the highest rate with 20.33 decares per house. Again Hoşafçılar Village has the lowest amount of land with 4.20 decares per house. In terms of planted area, again Akmescid has the highest amount while Hoşafçılar has the lowest amount of planted area. The amount of planted area in Akmescid Village is 422 decares and the same amount is 21 decares in Hoşafçılar Village. The amount of planted area per house is the highest in Bonlar Village with 20.33 decares per house. The lowest amount is in Hoşafçılar Village with 4.20 decares per house. 2 In the analysis in 37 villages of Bilecik 36.55% of the land was lied to fallow and 63% of the land was planted. See Öztürk, 1996, p.121; it was 71.7% on the same dates in Akçakoca rural area. See Zeynel Özlü, “XVIII. ve XIX. Yüzyıllarda Karadeniz’de Bir Kıyı Kenti Akçakoca”, Yeditepe Yayınevi, İstanbul 2008, p.185. 3 Number of houses in Akçakoca on the same period: 294, total planted area: 857,25 decares, planted areas per house 2,7 decare. See. Özlü, p.188. 72 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The total land amount of all villages, the amount of planted and fallow land, amount of land per house is given in detail in Table 3. 2.2.Distribution of Planted Area by Villages In their distribution by the type of agricultural production and villages, it is seen that the total land reserved for branches of production is used to full capacity. The usage rate of fields reserved for such products as wheat, barley, oat and flax are close to one another. The largest land use in grains production is in Akmescid Village with 380 decares while the least land amount is in Hoşafçılar Village with 17 decares. The land distributed for vegetable gardens is the highest again in Akmescid Village with 42 decares and lowest in Bonlar Village with 5 decares. 2.3.Comparison of planted areas with the villages of Banaz district When the planted areas of the rural area is compared to the villages of Banaz district in terms of product diversity4 it is seen that the land reserved for grains and broad bean has a larger share in the villages of Banaz district (94.3%). The share of land reserved for vineyards, orchard and vegetable production is higher in the villages of Bartın district (6,79%). This validates that agriculture is an important income source in the villages of Banaz while in Bartın villages lumbering stands out as the main source of income. Table 3: Land Distribution Villages Nr. of Houses Total Unplant Total Planted Land Unpl Total Planted Unplan ed land Planted Area per per anted Land Area ted per Area House House land % land house (Decare) (Decare) (Decare) (Decare) % (Decare) Mekeçler 20 280 14,00 Kurtköy 18 206 11,44 Receb Beşeoğlu 12 189 15,75 Karagedikler 8 117 14,63 Çayır 22 195 8,86 Bonlar 6 122 20,33 Kıran 13 186 14,31 Hoşafçılar Village 5 21 4,20 Emiroğlu 6 94 15,67 Pınarlı 17 201 11,82 Akmescid 26 422 16,23 153 2033 13,29 TOTAL Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 - (Decare) - Table 4: Distribution of Agricultural Production Land Vineyard, Fields where orchard Nr. Of grains are and Village % Houses planted vegetable (Decare) production (Decare) 4 280 206 189 117 195 122 186 21 94 201 422 2033 % 14,00 11,44 15,75 14,63 8,86 20,33 14,31 4,20 15,67 11,82 16,23 13,29 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total Production (Decare) % - Among 37, only the first 11 villages of Banaz district were chosen to make comparison. See: Güler Erdem Bay, “19. Yüzyılda Banaz Kazası’nın Sosyo-Ekonomik Yapısı”, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul 2010, p.15.; Planted area grain land in Akçakoca rural area in 1844 was 412 decare. See (Özlü, p.185). 73 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL 20 18 273 198 97,50 96,12 7 8 2,50 3,88 280 206 100 100 12 178 94,18 11 5,82 189 100 8 22 110 184 94,02 94,36 7 11 5,98 5,64 117 195 100 100 6 117 95,90 5 4,10 122 100 13 177 95,16 9 4,84 186 100 5 17 80,95 4 19,05 21 100 6 17 83 178 88,30 88,56 11 23 11,70 11,44 94 201 100 100 26 380 90,05 42 9,95 422 100 153 1895 93,21 138 6,79 2033 100 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 2.3.Distribution of Land by Usage Area In all villages a large amount of the land is reserved for grain production. The income from a 1895-decare-field reserved for field crops was 38.352 kurus. The highest revenue was obtained in Akmescid village as 9.155 kurus. The lowest income level belongs to Hoşafçılar village with 545 kurus. Graphic 4: Agricultural Distribution of Lands (%) An area of 138 decare was left for vineyards, gardens and vegetable gardens. The revenue from this area is 1998 kurus. The highest revenue is obtained from Kurt Köy with 1.245 kurus. Again, the lowest revenue was obtained from Hoşafçılar Village with 216 kurus. The total area reserved for wheat, barley, oat, flax, vineyard and fruits& vegetable is 2033 decares. 46.948 kurus revenue was made from an area of 2033 decares in all villages (Özlü, 2008, p.118).5 The highest income was obtained in Akmescid Village in 5 When we compare this income with Akçakoca on the same period, we find a significant difference between the two. It was figured that 46757 kurus revenue would be earned from 746,5 decare area in Akçakoca rural area ( See Özlü, p.188). This means 62,63 kurus per decare. On the other hand, 46948 kurus revenue was generated from 2033 decare in Bartın rural area, and such a low number as 23,09 was found per decare. 74 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo all villages with 11.153 kurus. The lowest income was obtained in Emiroğlu Village with 2.269 kurus. Table 5: Distribution of Land by Villages in terms of their usage area and value, 1844 Village Fields where grain production is made Income Decare (Kurus) 273 4.802 198 3.267 Vineyard, orchard and vegetable garden Income Decare (Kurus) 7 1.112 8 1.245 Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb 178 3.681 11 Beşeoğlu Karagedikler 110 2.118 7 Çayır 184 3.446 11 Bonlar 117 2.125 5 Kıran 177 3.407 9 Hoşafçılar 17 545 4 Village Emiroğlu 83 2.017 11 Pınarlı 178 3.789 23 Akmescid 380 9.155 42 TOTAL 1895 38.352 138 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Total 280 206 Income (Kurus) 5.914 4.512 711 189 4.392 531 720 342 612 117 195 122 186 2.649 4.166 2.467 4.019 216 21 761 252 857 1.998 8.596 94 201 422 2033 2.269 4.646 11.153 46.948 Decare 2.4.Comparison of grain areas with surrounding districts in terms of productivity When we compare Bartın rural area with Bilecik, Bursa and Akçakoca rural areas in the same period, we find totally different ratios. Among the three districts Bilecik has the highest rate. Bartın rural area has the lowest level of productivity among the four districts. Table 6: Comparison of Bartın rural area with surrounding districts’ rural areas in terms of productivity ( Kurus) City Bilecik Bursa (Öztürk, 1996, p.134) Akçakoca (Özlü, 2008, p.207) Bartın Grain Productivity Level 68,95 44,22 38,50 20,24 2.5.Productivity of Agricultural Production by villages The productivity of crops in agricultural land varies according to the type of product and geographical properties, on the other hand, effect productivity. Differences in practice in the production phase and use of fertilizers also effect productivity. When we leave all other factors aside except the geographical factors and make an evaluation; it is possible to set forth in which productive product a residential area should specialize in by determining in which product a village gets the highest revenue per decare (Öztürk, 1996, p.132). 75 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 6: Productivity of Agricultural Products by Villages (Kurus) Vegetable Grape Vineyard Village Grains s vine Income Mekeçler 4.802 347 765 -Kurtköy 3.267 253 792 100 Receb Beşeoğlu 3.681 324 351 Karagedikler 2.118 189 306 Karaçayır 3.446 234 360 Bonlar Village 2.125 117 225 Kıran Village 3.407 162 387 Hoşafçılar Village 545 72 81 Emiroğlu 2.017 162 Pınarlı 3.789 324 243 Akmescid Village 9.155 713 533 TOTAL 38.352 2.897 4.043 100 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Fruit Tree 126 63 63 63 290 702 1.307 Cloth Trading Income 100 50 150 Miscellan eous Fruits 36 36 27 99 Total 5.914 4.512 4.392 2.649 4.166 2.467 4.019 761 2.269 4.646 11.153 46.948 The village with the highest productivity in grain production in rural area is Akmescid Village. With a 9.155 kurus revenue Akmescid is the village with the highest revenue among all villages and it is also the village with the highest revenue in vegetable and fruit growing. Hoşafçılar Village has the lowest revenue in grain production with 545 kurus revenue. Highest revenue in vegetables belongs to Akmescid Village with 713 kurus revenue. Hoşafçılar village where the lowest revenue is obtained is also the village with the lowest grain and grape revenue. Kurtköy has the highest grape income with 792 kurus and Hoşafçılar has the lowest grape income with 81 kurus. Grapevine and cloth trading income is only obtained in Kurtköy with 100 kurus each. In miscellaneous fruits part 99 kurus revenue was obtained in three villages in total. 2.5.Size of Agricultural Enterprises In Ottoman agricultural statistics enterprises were divided into three groups according to their size. Companies with an area below 10 decares were grouped as “imalât-ı sağire”(small scale enterprise), those with an area between 10-5- decares were grouped as “ imalât-ı mutavassıta”( medium-sized enterprise), and those with an area more than 50 decares are grouped as “imalât-ı cesime (large-scale enterprise)’’ (Güran, 1998b, p. 242). According to this division the rate of small businesses in Bartın rural area is 18.15% while the rate of medium-sized businesses counts for 81.85%. There are no big-sized enterprises ( with an area over 50 decare) among agricultural businesses. 76 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo And this shows that there are mostly medium-sized enterprises in the villages (Sarı, 2007, p.45).6 Table 7: Size of Agricultural Enterprises Over 50 % decare 1-10 Decare % 10-50 Decare % Planted field 231 12.19 1664 87.81 - 0 Vegetable garden 138 100 - 0 - 0 TOTAL/AVERAGE 369 18.15 1664 81.85 - 0 2.6.Grain Production We see that grain production, which was the most important source of income for Ottoman Empire (Keyder and Tabak, 1998, p.182), had been an important source of income in Ottoman rural areas, a small reflection of the empire, as well. Moving from the data regarding the grain production of eleven villages chosen, numbers about the type of grain and their amounts (table 8) will be presented. 2.7.Distribution of Grain Production by Villages in terms of Amount All the fields in the Temettüat register, the main source of our study, are planted areas. There are no fields allowed to lie for fallow. Wheat, barley and oat are grown in all villages. Besides, reed plant and flax oil grows in Akmescid too. The highest wheat production is made in Akmescid village with 880 bushels while the lowest production is made in Hoşafçılar village with 50 bushels. As is seen, wheat production takes the first place in grain production. In the villages we realized our study, a total amount of 3840 bushels wheat production was made. After wheat, the second most produced grain is barley. Barley is most produced in Kıran Village and least produced in Hoşafçılar Village. The total production of field products was 8315 bushels. The highest share belongs to Akmescid Village with 1900 bushels and the lowest share belongs to Hoşafçılar Village with 85 bushels. Table 8: Distribution of amounts (Bushel) Village Wheat Barley Mekeçler 370 390 Kurtköy 310 220 Receb Beşeoğlu 340 270 Karagedikler 230 160 Çayır 480 290 Bonlar Village 240 120 Kıran Village 390 220 Hoşafçılar Village 50 30 6 Grain Production according to their Oat Reed Plant Total 190 950 120 650 200 810 50 440 190 960 110 470 80 690 5 85 According to a study in 2007, when the ratio of the sizes of the agricultural businesses and the area they cover is looked into the total rate of three group business with 50-100 and 100-200 and 200-499 decare (da) size make 60,75%. In Bartın, on the other hand, the number of businesses with 0-20 da make up 29,2%.And the companies with 20-100 da make up the 68,7%. Besides, there are no companies larger than 500 da in Bartın (Salih Sarı. Bartın City Agrarian Geography, Unpublished Post Graduate Thesis, Sakarya University Institute of Social Sciences, 2007, p.45). 77 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL 180 370 880 3840 140 190 390 2420 30 130 350 1455 120 200 280 600 470 890 1900 8315 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 2.8.Annual amount of grains produced by their type When we calculate annual grain amount produced annually based on the product type, following results are obtained: Graphic 5: Grain Product Amounts (Bushel) 2.9.Grain Amount per House (Kg) We can find if there is a surplus product in the total agricultural production amount of the villages. When doing this, we can use the tithe paid for one year in the villages. Total tithe from wheat in the villages is 384 bushels. Since this tax in-kind corresponds to 10% of the total product, moving from this information we can find the total wheat production as 3840 bushels. When 384 bushels, the tithe, is deducted from the total production, the amount of wheat the villagers will consume in a year is found; and this amount corresponds to 3456 bushels (88.354 kg). Does this amount supply the villagers with the necessary amount they need? When we consider that a person can consume almost 8 bushels (205 kg) of wheat in a year (Güran, 1998 a, p.16), wheat consumption of the villages in the same year is calculated as 6120 bushels (156.978 kg) (Özlü, 2008, pp. 195-196).7 According to this calculation, it is revealed that villagers cannot even supply their own wheat amount 7 153 houses, the population of the village is found as 765 by calculating 5 people living in each house. As it is known that each person consumes 8 bushels of wheat every year, total consumption is found as 765x 8= 6.120 bushels. Please see Ömer Lütfi Barkan, “Tarihi Demografi Araştırmaları ve Osmanlı Tarihi”, Türkiye Mec., C:X, İstanbul 1953, p.1-26 for Ömer Lütfi Barkan’s thesis stating that each Ottoman house’s population is five people. The same calculation can be made for Akçakoca rural area. There were 294 houses in Akçakoca. And accordingluy, the total population is 1470. Total annual wheat consumption is 1470x8= 11.760. However, the total wheat production in Akçakoca was 1790 bushels. Thus, all dwellings of Akçakoca produce less wheat than they need. And this brings in mind that the people in the villages provide their wheat need from the districts in the neighbourhood partially. See Özlü, pp. 195-196. 78 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo for themselves and their families let alone merchandise it. 8 The required amount of wheat-deficit for aforementioned villages to nourish themselves is 2.280 bushels or in other words 58.482 kg. However, this deficit should be approached with precaution because in those aforementioned villages such supporting products as barley, oat, reed plant, flax and flax oil are also grown. 3.HUSBANDRY 3.1.General Structure Husbandry is at the bottom of the list as an income source in the region. Its share in the total revenue is 2.14% (Özlü, 2008, p.82) .9 Existing husbandry, as far as it seems, is for meeting needs. It is not possible to say that production for the market is made and that husbandry is done as an occupation. It appears that only ox among cattle is used in ploughing. Such pack animals as bear, horse, donkey and hinny are not found in the villages. Table 9: Ovine and Cattle Distribution Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL Ovine (Number) 9 15 10 0 3 24 61 Incomegenerating ovine (Number) 3 14 6 3 14 40 Total Revenue Cattle (Number) 6 14 12 4 29 65 56 35 43 26 23 25 63 5 32 32 110 450 Incomegenerating cattle (Number) 2 6 4 2 2 3 8 8 5 28 68 Total Revenue (Kurus) 20 75 40 20 50 30 80 150 105 598 1168 The number of bovine in rural area is 61. Among these 61 animals, 40 of them brought in money; the income generated from these 40 animals was 65 kurus. Akmescid Village ranks in the first place in raising ovine with 24 ovine. Again the highest income from ovine was generated in Akmescid Village with 29 kurus. The total number of cattle is 450. There are cattle in all rural areas. The highest number of cattle is in Akmescid Village. The number of cattle in this village is 110. The income generated from these 110 cattle is recorded as 1168 kurus. An important part of this revenue is generated from milk cows and milk buffalos. The rate of ovine among all animals is 11.94% while the rate of cattle is 88.06%. When we group the animals raised in rural areas according to their species (Table 10) we see that cattle species has the highest share. It is seen that ovine breeding did not develop in the villages in rural areas while bovine breeding significantly improved. 8 For similar and comperative calculations see Öztürk, 1996, p. 146; A. Mesud Küçükkalay-Ayla Efe, Osmanlı Ziraî Sektörünün Ticarileşebilme İmkânı Üzerine Bir Deneme:1844-45 Alpu Köyü Örneği, p.252. 9 In Özlü’s study on Akçakoca, the share of husbandry in Akçakoca rural area was found to have 3% share in total revenue. Between 1811-1864 Akçakoca was a town attached to Bolu-Safranbolu (Viranşehir)- Has Voyvodalığı (Özlü, p.32). 79 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 10: Total Animal Distribution in Villages by their species Animal species Goat Sheep Cattle Number 15 46 424 % 3,09 9,48 87,42 3.2.Ovine breeding It is seen in the records that goat and sheep were the animal species in which ovine breeding developed. There was no information on poultry so we cannot comment on poultry. The total number of goats and sheep that we assessed in total ovine is 61 (Table 11). Among these 61 ovine, 15 of them are goats and 46 of them are sheep. Among both species sheep has a predominant place. Table 11: Distribution of Ovine by Villages Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL Milk Milk sheep sheep (number) Revenue Infertile sheep (number) Infertile sheep revenue Milk goat (number) Milk goat revenue Infertile goat (number) Infertile goat revenue Goat kid Lamb 3 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 7 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 4 9 7 14 0 0 5 5 19 38 4 9 7 14 3 4 5 23 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Annual revenue from 61 ovine is 65 kurus. And 18 kurus of this amount is earned from goats and 47 of it is earned from sheep. It seems that when annual revenue from each animal is considered, sheep is a more productive animal. As goat species mostly milk goats are raised. Goat is only raised in Emiroğlu (3 ) and Akmescid (12) villages. And in sheep species again mostly milk sheep are raised. It is seen that these animals are mostly raised in Recep Beşeoğlu village. 3.3.Bovine Breeding The distribution of bovine breeding in the rural area is as follows (Table 13); Number of cattle is higher than the number of pack animals. Except from milk cow and milk buffalo, no income is generated from the other animals among cattle. The number of draught animals among cattle is high. And among pack animals there are no donkeys in all rural areas except 1 in Emiroğlu village. 80 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Donkey 6 1 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 2 6 Female Buffalo Male Buffalo Calf Female Buffalo Calf Infertile cow Mare Calf 0 4 2 1 4 0 0 2 0 0 7 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 2 5 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 1 2 3 9 10 5 12 24 Young horse 3 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 7 4 10 Male Calf 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 3 Young cattle 1 0 0 2 Female Calf Mekeçler 2 20 0 0 28 1 4 3 Kurtköy 5 50 1 25 19 0 0 Receb Beşeoğlu 4 40 0 0 15 0 4 7 Karagedikler 2 20 0 0 12 0 0 0 Çayır 0 0 2 50 10 0 6 0 Bonlar Village 3 30 0 0 6 0 4 0 Kıran Village 8 80 1 25 16 0 0 2 Hoşafçılar Village 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 Emiroğlu 6 90 2 60 9 0 0 2 Pınarlı 3 45 2 60 17 0 0 1 Akmescid Village 17 268 11 330 30 3 4 2 TOTAL 50 643 19 550 166 5 22 17 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Male Buffalo Infertile Buffalo Buffalo Cattle Black Cattle Milk Buffalo Revenue Milk Buffalo (number) Milk Cow Revenue Village Milk Cow (number) Table 12: Distribution of Bovine Animals by Villages 2 1 0 5 3 5 1 0 1 1 2 1 0 3 0 0 0 4 1 2 0 8 3 18 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 When we look into the animal species used for ploughing and packing and those which should be regarded as capital, we see ox and water buffalo on the top of the list. Only donkey is recorded carrying and apart from donkey, there is not any other animal like horse and hinny. The total number of bovine animals in the rural area raised for various purposes and used in various areas is 370. Among these animals 369 of them are cattle and 1 on them is pack animal. Annual revenue from 50 milk cows in cattle group is 643 kurus. Average annual revenue per animal is found as 12.86 kurus. In terms of annual revenue, income from milk buffalo takes the second place. While income is 10 kurus per milk cow, the same income from each milk buffalo is two and a half times higher than it. The annual revenue from each milk buffalo is 25 kurus (Özlü, 2008, p.165). 10 The total revenue from cattle is 1193 kurus. The highest number of milk cows is in Akmescid Village. There are 17 milk cows in the village. There are two milk buffalos in each Çayır, Emiroğlu and Ponar villages, and one in both Kurtköy and Kıran Villages. There are no milk buffalos apart from the mentioned ones. The highest number of cattle used for ploughing is in Akmescid village. The total number of cattle used for ploughing in this village is 30. When the number of houses in this village is considered ( a total of 24 houses) it is obvious that there are more than one cattle for each house. 10 In a research on Plovdiv city, it was found that 60 kurus income is generated from a buffalo and 5-6 kurus income is generated from a milk cow annually. (Özlü, p.165). 81 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3.4.Draught and Pack Animals in house scale During the times before mechanization and in fields where mechanization did not apply, cattle is the main agricultural tool and there is almost one cattle for each house in the rural area. According to our calculations, there is 1.02 cattle per house. When we accept that each house has one cattle, it means that all household heads in all villages have a cattle. The rate of cattle, used as draught animal, per house in the rural area is shown in Table 12. In the table, we see that the number of draught animal per house is 1.02. The highest number of cattle per house is in Bonlar Village and the number is 1.67 per house, which means there is more than one cattle for each house in this village. The highest number of cattle is in Mekeçler Village and the total number of cattle is 33. However, since the population of the village is high, the number of cattle per house is 1.65. The lowest number of cattle is in Emiroğlu Village and there are 5 draught animals in the village. In Hoşafçılar Village, where there are only 5 houses, there are no draught animals. Table 13: Draught Animal per House Number of Houses 20 18 12 8 22 6 13 5 6 17 26 153 Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL/AVERAGE Total cattle number 33 19 19 12 16 10 16 5 9 17 156 Cattle per House 1.65 1.06 1.58 1.50 0.73 1.67 1.23 0.00 0.83 0.53 0.65 1.02 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 3.5.Amount of land per cattle When we look into the amount of agricultural land per cattle in our sample study field, we see quite different numbers. As seen in Table 14, village averages differs. On all planted areas scale, the average land per cattle is 13.03. The highest amount of land per cattle is in Akmescid Village. Pınarlı Village follows Akmescid Village with an average land per cattle among all planted area is 22.33 decare. The village where a cattle has the lowest land is Mekeçler Village. The average land for a cattle among all planted area in this village is 8.48 decare. According to the calculations made, a couple of horses plough 6-7 decare area while a couple of cattle plough 2-3 decare area (Güran, 1998 a, p.86). Accordingly, it is found that a cattle in Bartın rural area is only used for two work days for ploughing. Table 14: Land per cattle Village 82 Number of Total cattle Planted area (Decare) Planted Land per Cattle (Decare) �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL/AVERAGE 33 19 19 12 16 10 16 0 5 9 17 156 280 206 189 117 195 122 186 21 94 201 422 2033 8,48 10,84 9,95 9,75 12,19 12,20 11,63 0 18,80 22,33 24,82 13,03 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 3.6.Beekeeping Although beekeeping is not accounted as a source of living, stil some villages are engaged in beekeeping. As it can be seen in Table 15, all villages are engaged in beekeeping except from Hoşafçılar and Emiroğlu villages. The total number of bee hives in all villages is 43 and the total annual revenue from beekeeping is 299 kurus. The annual revenue from each bee hive is 6 kurus in all villages except Pınarlı and Akmescid villages. Table 15: Villages where people are engaged in Beekeeping, number of beehives and annual revenue Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL Number of Beehives Annual Revenue (Kurus) 4 5 14 4 2 1 1 0 0 3 9 43 24 30 84 24 12 6 6 0 0 27 86 299 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 4.DISTRIBUTION OF LABOR FORCE In village settlements, there are not many occupational diversity as in urban areas. In villages, where main source of income is based on agriculture and husbandry, there is no need for occupational differentiation (Güran, 1985, p.318). However, in rural areas there are reasons to do agricultural and non-agricultural activities together. Because of the density of population in the rural area, not everyone could engage in agriculture (Güran, 1998 b, p.271). 83 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4.1.Occupational Breakdown of Household Heads The rate of agricultural revenue in total revenue in the rural area used as the study field is 35.51%, while the same rate for lumbering is 59.69%. In other words, we see that the income rate earned from an occupation other than agriculture and husbandry and which can be regarded as occupational income has a quite high level in total revenue. This shows that Bartın, located in the West Black Sea Region, is rich in terms of forests. According to Forest Management Map Database of General Directorate of Forestry, Bartın city has 98.578 ha forest area and 13.229..029 cubic meter planted forest. Most of the existing forest areas are high forests (Sarı, 2007, p.23). It can be said that the large amount of forest areas in the region developed lumbering activities. When the occupations of the household heads were specified in the registers their being “erbâb-ı ziraat”( farmer) is indicated clearly. Since almost all of the people engaged in a business other than agriculture have agricultural lands, it is understood that these people are engaged in farming. Recent studies show that almost all of the people living in the villages of Bartın are somehow engaged in agricultural activities (Sarı, 2007, p.44). Table 16: Occupational Breakdown of Household Heads “Asâkir-i Village Nizâmiye-i Forlo Luna Şâhâne” Servant Beggar Orphan rn tic ( a military Number of Houses Erbab-ı Ziraat (farmer) 20 18 19 11 1 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 22 6 13 5 6 17 26 6 16 5 11 3 5 14 24 2 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 2 4 1 1 unempl Laborer oyed position) Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Kıran Hoşafçılar Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid TOTAL/ 153 126 11 1 AVERAGE Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 It is indicated that 10 household heads among 153 in all villages do not have any income. These people without any income are recorded as “Sa'ile”, “unemployed”, “orphan”, “Lunatic”, “Diseased and Alone” and “Asâkir-i Nizâmiye-i Şâhâne”. Only in Çayır Village there is a record of one people as “Asâkir-i Nizâmiye-i Şâhâne”. This person had no property, land or animals and was engaged in merchandising in Adapazarı and later came to Bartın to attend Asâkir-i Nizâmiye-i Şâhâne”. There are other 9 people without any income and without any kind of property. It is stated that those people live off with the support of other people. Apart from these 10 people, all other household heads have some piece of agricultural lands that they work. 84 Most of these �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo household heads are earning their income from lumbering apart from agricultural activities. The share of income obtained from lumbering among total revenue is 59.15%.11 As is seen in Table 15, 126 houses (82.35%) among a total of 153 in all villages are engaged in agriculture. It is also recorded that there are 11 laborers, 1 unemployed, 2 forlorn, 5 servants, 2 beggars, 4 orphan and 1“Asâkir-i Nizâmiye-i Şâhâne”. 4.2.Distribution of Active Labor Force Income In this section, the breakdown of revenue from occupation by villages will be examined and moving from that overall breakdown results will be found. The number of people with an income from an occupation, total and average occupation income breakdown and the share of this income in total revenue will be assessed. Table 17: Breakdown of Labor Force Income by Villages Number Number of Houses of with Houses Occupatio n Income Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL/ AVERAGE Total Occupa tion Income (Kurus) Average Occupa tion Income (Kurus) Number of Houses Share of with Total of occupatio Total Occupat Other nal Revenue ion Income income in (Kuruş) Income (Kurus) revenue + other (%) Income source 20 18 20 15 6,414 5,137 320.70 342.47 20 18 9,330 6,807 15,744 11,944 40.74 43.01 12 12 6,136 511.33 12 6,551 12,687 48.36 8 22 8 19 3,393 5,475 424.13 288.16 8 22 3,950 6,550 7,343 12,025 46.21 45.53 6 6 2,503 417.17 6 3,700 6,203 40.35 13 12 4,280 356.67 13 9,101 13,381 31.99 5 4 761 190.25 5 1,250 2,011 37.84 6 17 5 16 2,423 4,928 484.60 308.00 6 17 3,930 8,900 6,353 13,828 38.14 35.64 26 25 13,416 536.64 26 19,870 33,286 40.31 153 142 54,866 386.38 153 79,739 134,805 40.70 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 In all the villages examined, all household heads earn income from lumbering apart from agricultural activities. The village with the highest occupation income is Akmescid Village. Their occupation revenue has 40.70% share in total revenue (Özlü, 2008, p.180). 12 Rural area has a total 54.866 kurus occupation income. The village with the highest occupation income is Akmescid Village, which also has the highest number of household heads having an occupation income. The average revenue in all villages is 11 See Breakdown of income resources by villages, table.1. The rate of occupational income in total revenue in Akçakoca in the same period was quite higher than Bartın and it was 87%. (Özlü, p.180). 12 85 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 386.38 kurus. The highest average is again in Akmescid Village with 536.64 kurus. 25 houses out of a total of 26 have an occupation revenue in this village. The share of occupation revenue in total revenue in terms of their village breakdown is as follows: As it is stated before, the share of occupation revenue in total revenue in all rural area is 40.70% and the highest rate is in Recep Beşeoğlu village with 48.36%. All the total 12 houses in Recep Beşeoğlu village have occupation revenue. The lowest occupation revenue, according to its share in total revenue, is in Kıran Village with 31.99%. 5.DISTRIBUTION OF TAXES IN VILLAGES 5.1.General Information Tax is transfer of fund to the government from economic resources with a political decision in order to carry on public works (Milliyet Genel Ekonomi Ansiklopedisi I-II, 1988, p.920). And it was the basis of income distribution in pre-industrial economies. This financial system, which was one of the basic dynamics of the empire took its unique place in world finance history with the collapse of the empire (Genç, 1975, p.231). There had been various implementations of tax in Ottoman Empire in terms of how it is imposed, how it is collected and its diversity. In the period before Tanzimat, there were taxes with different rates and collection methods under the main headings of “Tekâlif-i Şer’iye” and “Tekâlif-i Örfiye”. 19th century had been a totally different period for Ottoman society and economy compared to the previous periods. One of the most significant improvements during the century is the reform movements that the Ottoman executives initiated (Pamuk, 2007a, p.238). With Tanzimat, as in other institutions, many reforms were made in financial structure too. Financial institutions and tax system had been the main focus of Tanzimat reforms (Ortaylı, 1974, p.2). In tax practice religious taxes were remitted and substituted by tithe at a rate of one of a tenth in agricultural products and “adet-i ağnam” (literally meaning “sheep tax”) in ovine, jizya taken from non-Muslim citizens. And civil tax was also substituted with “vergü-yi mahsusa” ( a private tax) (Güran, 1989, p.13). Jizya was a per capita tax levied on non-Muslim citizens in Ottoman Empire (Karaman and Pamuk, 2010, p.599). 5.2.Vergü-yi Mahsusa ( Private tax) This tax which was allocated somehow considering the income of the people and which was substituted for civil tax during Tanzimat period began to be applied as of 1840. The amount of this tax was determined in sanjak scale and the total amount was divided between the districts. Later the members of the town council used to determine the amount that each town or village had to pay in a meeting where, according to the ethnicity of the population, imam and priest were participating; finally the tax was allocated according to the abilities of the people to pay. 86 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In determining the amount of the tax, the total amount of removed civil tax was based on and the ability of the taxpayers to pay which was used when allocating the tax among taxpayers was determined by a census. In this new practice, real estate, land, animal and if the person is engaged, their trade income was grounded on. In order to determine this financial strength fairly and to allocate the tax in a just manner according to people’s ability to pay, inventories were taken in 1844 in a large part of the country. And as a result of these inventories “Property, Land, Animal and Temettüat Registers” were prepared. During the inventories taxman began tax registering from the villages and registered every single person’s name and reputation, their property, land and animals, average amount of revenue of the merchants and tradesmen. And a notable person would be appointed by the city council to each town to help the taxman for registry and a secretary would be appointed to them. Registries were to be made on a properly and fairly, and those who make wrong or incomplete register would be punished. During the collection, the mukhtar of the village or neighborhood, imam or clerk registered the collection they made to the register book with a name of the household head and would bring the book and money to the district. The taxes that people paid were registered to the book at the district and the amount money and date of the payment were written and sealed by the principal and presiding officer. During the collection and the delivery of the tax to the taxman, zaptiah soldiers were also appointed for security reasons. The collection of this tax was made in two installations as “ruz-ı Hızır” and “ruz-ı kasım” until 1261/1845. And each installation was collected in three other installations. However, since these collection periods were not appropriate for collection, from this date on the tax was to be collected step by step from the farmers from harvest period till the end of the year, and from merchants and tradesmen it was to be collected in a year in installations. With this regulation in 1864, paying the tax in 10 installations was introduced. This tax which was based on identifying property, land and other income resources of the public and taxation according to their ability to pay was abolished in 1860 and instead, land and income taxes were brought (Öztürk, 1996, p.176). After all these general information about taxes, we will now put an emphasis on the shape of Vergü-yi Mahsusa in Ottoman rural area. From the Temettüat register sequence no: 02824, we know the amount of tax allocated to villages in the rural area. Here we will look into the allocation of taxes in the villages from the registers belonging to the villages. There are differences in tax allocation between villages in the rural area examined. Table 18 shows total vergü-yi mahsusa realized in all villages as well as amount of vergü-yi mahsusa per house. When we look into the average amount of tax levied per house, it is seen that the amount is 187,10 kurus in total rural scale. And when we look at village averages we see that 6 villages are above this average and 5 villages are below the averages. Highest average tax was seen in Akmescid Village as 241,73 kurus. The lowest 87 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo average tax was seen in Hoşafçılar Village as 98 kurus. Total vergü-yi mahsusa in all villages is 28.627. Table 18: Distribution of Vergü-yi Mahsusa Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village Number of Houses 20 18 12 8 22 6 13 5 6 17 26 153 Vergü-yi Mahsusa (Kuruş) 4,128 2,660 2,558 1,296 3,156 1,252 2,546 490 1,332 2,924 6,285 28,627 TOTAL/ AVERAGE Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Tax per house (Kuruş) 206.40 147.78 213.17 162.00 143.45 208.67 195.85 98.00 222.00 172.00 241.73 187.10 In village average + + + + + + 5.3.Tithe The word tithe means a one tenth part of something (Akdağ, 1999, p.408); and in Islam land law it means a land tax at a rate of 1/10 and 1/20 taken from the products raised in lands whose owners converted to Islam with their own will and from the lands which were won after a war and divided among the war veterans (Öztürk, 1996, pp. 184-185). Tithe taken directly from the producers (Keyder and Tabak, 1998, p.146) is like a religious service and regarded as the zakat of the land and was only taken from Muslims and the owned land. Tithe in the Ottoman Empire was the name of the money taken from demesne. Since the word exaction would not be approved among the public, it was called as tithe and thus, had been used for centuries. Tithe was taken from all products in agriculture. It was taken from all grains and grain types, products raised in vegetable gardens, fruits, vineyards and grape products, pastures and other agricultural products; and the collection of this tax was made in three ways: in kind, in cash and fixed. This tax was not previously transferred to the national treasury but paid to the land owner by rayah working on the land. After the corruption of manorial system the authority of demesne was given to tacksman, taxman and civil servants. During Tanzimat tithe was collected at a rate of one tenth. Tithe, the most efficient source for the finance of socio-economic development, was remitted in 17 February 1341 (1925) and was replaced by “mahsulat-ı araziye (land income)” (Öztürk, 1996, 184-185). Following these historical improvement phases of tithe, the tithe per house, its share in total tithe and the rates of tithe in Bartın rural area will be highlighted. 88 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Burden of tithe tax varies in each house according to the capacity of agricultural lands in rural area and according to the products. In all rural areas, the total tithe occurred as 5.366 kurus. The average tithe burden per house is 35.07 kurus. The highest tithe average per house was seen in Akmescid Village. Here the average tithe per house was 47.04 kurus. The highest tithe tax burden in rural area was also seen in Akmescid Village which had the highest average tax burden per house. The lowest average was found in Hoşafçılar Village as 84 kurus. Since the total number of tax payers in Hoşafçılar Village was only 5, the total tax amount was low. Table 19: Total Tithe and its Break Down per house Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village Number of Houses 20 18 12 8 22 6 13 5 6 17 26 153 Total Tithe (Kurus) 665 485 525 302 594 277 434 84 254 523 1,223 5,366 TOTAL/AVERAGE Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Tithe per house (Kurus) 33.25 26.94 43.75 37.75 27.00 46.17 33.38 16.80 42.33 30.76 47.04 35.07 5.4.The Share of Taxes in Total Revenue The share of Vergü-yi Mahsusa in total revenue in rural area was 20.09, and the share of tithe was 3.77. Among villages, the village with the highest Vergü-yi Mahsusa was Çayır Village. The share of Vergü-yi Mahsusa in total revenue in Çayır Village was found as 26.25%. And the lowest rate was found in Mekeçler Village. The highest rate of tithe among the total revenue was again found in Çayır Village with 4.94% and the lowest rate was found in Mekeçler Village with 2.84%. When we look into rural areas in terms of net revenue, it is found that Mekeçler village has the highest net revenue with 79.54% excluding tithe and tax and Hoşafçılar Village has the lowest revenue with 71.46%. The average of all rural area is 76.14%. The share of Vergü-yi Mahsusa and tithe in total revenue and the rate of net revenue is given in Table 20 below on village scale. 89 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 20: Vergü-yi Mahsusa, Tithe and Net Revenue Rates Total Vergiyi Net Vergü-yi Product Total Net Tithe Revenue Mahsusa Revenue Mahsusa Tithe Revenue Revenue (Kuruş) (Kuruş) (Kuruş) (Kuruş) % % % % Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village 23,426 11,944 12,687 7,343 12,025 6,203 13,381 2,011 6,353 13,828 33,286 TOTAL/AVERAGE 142,487 4,128 2,660 2,558 1,296 3,156 1,252 2,546 490 1,332 2,924 6,285 28,627 665 18,633 485 8,799 525 9,604 302 5,745 594 8,275 277 4,674 434 10,401 84 1,437 254 4,767 523 10,381 1,223 25,778 5,366 108,494 17.62 22.27 20.16 17.65 26.25 20.18 19.03 24.37 20.97 21.15 18.88 20.09 2.84 4.06 4.14 4.11 4.94 4.47 3.24 4.18 4.00 3.78 3.67 3.77 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 79.54 73.67 75.70 78.24 68.81 75.35 77.73 71.46 75.04 75.07 77.44 76.14 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 5.5.Vergü-yi Mahsusa and Tithe in Tax Burden Vergü-yi Mahsusa and tithe burden in total revenue developed at different levels in different villages. The rate of Vergü-yi Mahsusa and tithe in all tax expenditures in all rural area was 84.21% and 15.79%, respectively. The highest Vergü-yi Mahsusa occurred in Mekeçler Village with 86.13% and the lowest occurred in Karagedikler Village with 81.10%. The situation with tithe regarding the highest and lowest levels is vice versa. It was the lowest in Mekeçler Village and highest in Karagedikler Village. The rates of Vergü-yi Mahsusa and tithe in total tax burden realized in the villages are given in Table 21 below. Table 21: The rate of Vergü-yi Mahsusa and Tithe in Total Tax Vergiyi Vergü-yi Product Total Tithe Total Village mahsusa Mahsusa Tithe Tax (Kuruş) (Kuruş) (Kuruş) % % % Mekeçler 4,128 665 4,793 86.13 13.87 100 Kurtköy 2,660 485 3,145 84.58 15.42 100 Receb Beşeoğlu 2,558 525 3,083 82.97 17.03 100 Karagedikler 1,296 302 1,598 81.10 18.90 100 Çayır 3,156 594 3,750 84.16 15.84 100 Bonlar Village 1,252 277 1,529 81.88 18.12 100 Kıran Village 2,546 434 2,980 85.44 14.56 100 Hoşafçılar Village 490 84 574 85.37 14.63 100 Emiroğlu 1,332 254 1,586 83.98 16.02 100 Pınarlı 2,924 523 3,447 84.83 15.17 100 Akmescid Village 6,285 1,223 7,508 83.71 16.29 100 TOTAL/ 33,993 28,627 5,366 AVERAGE Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 90 84.21 15.79 100 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 6.RESULT In this study, which aims to examine the of the Ottoman Empire in the midst of obtained regarding the income resources, distribution and taxes in the chosen eleven existing economic structure of a rural area nineteenth century, significant findings are land distribution, husbandry, labor force villages. First of all, income resources of these chosen villages was found to be including 5 items which are agricultural, husbandry, being a laborer, lumbering and unexpected. It was observed that in a rural area chosen as the study field in Ottoman Empire, which was an agrarian state, lumbering was at the top of the list with 59.69% and on the contrary, agricultural income was in the second line of the list with 33.51% and husbandry was at the bottom of the list with 2.14%. It was found that there were differences in the distribution of income sources in different villages and that average revenue per house was 931 kurus. It was also found that 6 of those 11 villages were above the average and 5 of them were below the average and that there were no big differences in the averages of income groups. When the agricultural production is looked into, it was found that such grains as wheat, barley, oat and flax were raised as well as vineyards, fruits and vegetables; and the total land amount in village scale was 2033 decare. All those land were planted; 93.21% of the land was used as fields (1895 decare), 6.79% (138 decare) was used as vegetable gardens. The land for each tax-paying house was 13.29 decare, and the land used for grain production was 8315 bushel. Wheat is raised in large part of this grain production area. In terms of the size of agricultural enterprises, the share of small businesses was 18.15% and share of medium-sized businesses was 81.85%. In those sample eleven villages, it was found that there were mostly medium-sized businesses and that there were no large-scale businesses. It was seen that husbandry was not practiced as an occupation but as a means to meet the needs. In all villages, bovine breeding was in the forefront (88.06%). The share of ovine breeding was 11.94%. Annual income was obtained from milk cows and milk buffalos. Buffalo oxen were used as draught animals. In 153 houses in the rural area there were 156 oxen; which means there were 1.02 draught animal per house. This rate shows that each household heads had one draught animal. The average amount of land for one ox in planted areas was 13.03 and the days that each ox was used for ploughing was two working days on average. With regards to occupational income, there are 10 household heads among 153 who did not have any income source. And these people were recorded under “beggar”, “unemployed”, “orphan”, “lunatic”, “diseased and lonely” names. The total 91 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo occupational income in the rural area was 54.866 kurus and the income average was 386.38 kurus. The share of occupational income in total revenue was found as 40.70%. The total revenue of the rural area was calculated as 142.487 kurus and the Vergü-yi Mahsusa was calculated as 28.627 kurus. As a result of the calculations, tax burden imposed per house was found as 187.10 kurus. It was stated that six villages were taxed above this village average and five villages were taxed below the average. On the other hand, tithe burden in the rural area was 5.366 kurus and tithe per house was calculated as 35.07 kurus. Finally, when the total amount of wheat and the tithe paid in the villages is taken into account, it is determined that there are no surplus product in agricultural production amount. This finding showed that in the sample rural area of Ottoman Empire in this study, the villagers could not even provide themselves with the amount of wheat they need for a year let alone they merchandise it. REFERENCES Prime Ministry Ottoman Archival (BOA) BOA, ML (Maliye), VRD ( Vâridât Muhasebesi Defteri), TMT (Temettüat), Nr: 02824, Yıl: 1844 (1260). Other Resources Akdağ, Mustafa, Türkiye’nin İktisadî ve İçtimaî Tarihi (1243-1453), c.1, Barış Kitabevi, Ankara, 1999. Barkan, Ömer Lütfi, “Tarihi Demografi Araştırmaları ve Osmanlı Tarihi”, Türkiye Mec., C:X, İstanbul 1953. Barkan, Ömer Lütfi, “Osmanlı Devleti’nin Sosyal ve Ekonomik Tarihi”, Tetkikler, Makaleler, c.1, Yayına Hazırlayan Hüseyin Özdeğer, Dilek Ofset Matbaacılık, İstanbul, 2000. Bartın Rehberi, Bartın Ticaret ve Sanayi Odası Yayınları (Osmanlıca Basım), Şirket-i Mürettebiye Matbaası, 1927. Bartın Valiliği, 2011 URL: http://www.bartin.gov.tr, (Link date: 07.07.2011). Başbakanlık Osmanlı Arşivi Rehberi, T.C. Başbakanlık Devlet Arşivleri Müdürlüğü, Osmanlı Arşivi Daire Başkanlığı Yayın No: 42, İstanbul 2000. Genel Bay, Güler Erdem, 19. Yüzyılda Banaz Kazası’nın Sosyo-Ekonomik Yapısı, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul 2010. Çadırcı, Musa, Tanzimat Döneminde Anadolu Kentlerinin Sosyal ve Ekonomik Yapısı, Ankara, 1987. Devellioğlu, Ferit, Osmanlıca-Türkçe Ansiklopedik Lûgat . Ankara: Aydın Kitabevi, 2005. Genç, Mehmet, “Osmanlı Maliyesinde Malikane Sistemi”, Türkiye İktisat Tarihi Semineri, Ankara 1975. 92 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Genç, Mehmet, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu’nda Devlet ve Ekonomi, Ötüken Yayınları, İstanbul, 2000. Güran, Tevfik, “On dokuzuncu Yüzyıl Ortalarında Ödemiş Kasabası’nın SosyoEkonomik Özellikleri, İÜİF, Ord. Prof. Dr. Ömer Lütfi Barkan’a Armağan Özel Sayısı, İstanbul 1985. Güran, Tevfik, Tanzimat Döneminde Osmanlı Maliyesi: Bütçeler ve Hazine Hesapları (1841-1861), Türk Tarih Kurumu yayını, Ankara 1989. Güran, Tevfik, 19.Yüzyıl Osmanlı Tarımı, Eren Yayıncılık, İstanbul, 1998 a. Güran, Tevfik, “Osmanlı Tarım Ekonomisi 1840-1910”, 19. Yüzyıl Osmanlı Tarımı Üzerine Araştırmalar, Eren Yayıncılık, İstanbul, 1998 b. İnalcık, Halil, “Tarihi İstatistikler Dizisi Başlarken, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu’nun ve Türkiye’nin Nüfusu 1507-1927”, Tarihi İstatistikler Dizisi, c. II, Yayına Hazırlayan: Cem Behar, T.C. Başbakanlık DİE, Mayıs 1996. Karaman K.Kıvanç and Şevket Pamuk, “Ottoman State Finances in European Perspective, 1500-1914”, The Journal of Economic History, Vol.70, No.3 (September 2010). Keyder, Çağlar and Faruk Tabak (Ed), Osmanlı’da Toprak Mülkiyeti ve Ticari Tarım, Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları, İstanbul, 1998. Küçükkalay, A. Mesud and Ayla Efe, Osmanlı Ziraî Sektörünün Ticarileşebilme İmkânı Üzerine Bir Deneme:1844-45 Alpu Köyü Örneği. Milliyet Genel Ekonomi Ansiklopedisi I-II, İstanbul 1988, c. 2. Ortaylı, İlber, Tanzimattan Sonra Mahalli İdareler (1840-1878), Ankara, 1974 Özlü, Zeynel, XVIII. Ve XIX. Yüzyıllarda Karadeniz’de Bir Kıyı Kenti Akçakoca, Yeditepe Yayınevi, İstanbul 2008 Öztürk, Said, Tanzimat Döneminde Bir Anadolu Şehri: Bilecik, Kitabevi Yayınları, İstanbul 1996. Öztürk, Said, “Temettüat Tahrirleri”, Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Yıl:2, Sayı:4-5 (Osmanlı özel Sayısı), İstanbul 2000. Pamuk, Şevket, “ Küreselleşme Çağında Osmanlı Ekonomisi (1820-1914)”, Türkler, C.14, Ankara, 2002 Pamuk, Şevket, Osmanlı-Türkiye İktisadî Tarihi 1500-1914, İletişim Yayınları, İstanbul, 2007 a Pamuk, Şevket, Osmanlı Yayınları, İstanbul, 2007 b Ekonomisi ve Kurumları, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Sarı, Salih, Bartın İli Tarım Coğrafyası, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Sakarya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2007. Tabakoğlu, Ahmet, Gerileme Dönemine Girerken Osmanlı Maliyesi, Dergah Yayınları, İstanbul, 1985. Tabakoğlu, Ahmet, Türk İktisat Tarihi, Dergâh Yayınları, İstanbul, Ekim 2003. 93 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1315 Title A name given to the resource Economic Structure in a Rural Area in the 19th Century: A Comparison of Eleven Villages of Bartın District of Viranşehir Sanjak Author Author Ramazan , Arslan Abstract A summary of the resource. This study aims to examine the existing economic structure of a rural area of Ottoman Empire in 19th century. The sample field of the study is eleven villages of Bartın district, a significant coastal town of Ottoman Empire. Voluntary sampling was used in choosing the villages and attention was paid on choosing villages which could reflect the overall situation of the region in terms of economic structure. By looking into the Temettüat registers of the examined district for the year 1844, these results were tried to be identified. Keywords: Bartin district, Temettüat Registers, 19th Century, Ottoman Empire, Viranşehir Sanjak, Economic Structure,. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/695d574b822d84b3f77087f3713666e7.pdf 4f3e40a5a5e4c77dce84ae313f7615e5 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period Ramazan Arslan Bartın University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Turkey rarslan@bartin.edu.tr Abstract: This study aims to look into the economic Keywords: Bartın district, structure of Bartın province, located in West Black Temettüat Registers, 19th Century, Sea Region in Turkey, in the 19th century. The main Ottoman Empire, Viranşehir resource of the study is the temettüat register no Sanjak, Economic Structure. 02824 that belongs to Bartın, which was formed on the basis of the census in 1844-1845. Temettüat registers are significant archive resources that provide statistical information about the period studied as well as the region itself. Moving from data suc as the income resources, distribution of land, husbandry and labor, this study examines the economic structure of Bartın, which used to be a District of Viransehir Sanjak during the time. The study will also contribute to the literature by giving insights into the economy of Ottoman rural area in the 19th century. In addition to forestry products, the economy of Bartın depended on agriculture and husbandry during the time period studied. Agricultural production included such main products as wheat and barley while agricultural enterprises were mediumscale businesses. JEL Classification: N00, N30, N50 Article History Submitted: 02 August 2013 Resubmitted: 24 October 2013 Accepted: 29 October 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JECOSS 11429 221 �Ramazan Arslan Introduction In the periods before the reign of Ottoman Empire, states used to keep a set of inventories in order to produce social, economic, financial and military policies. It is known that one of these inventories was made in Old Egypt between 2500 – 3000 B.C. (Barkan, 2000, p. 181). In order to keep the Empire under control, Ottoman Empire developed a set of specific inventory systems (İnalcık, 1996, p.IX). Rapid increase in the number of soldiers with permanent salaries in Ottoman army was putting a serious burden on the budget (Pamuk, 2007a, pp. 119-121). In order to resolve these problems in the financial structure, various measures such as creating lease holding system and transferring resources from the treasure were taken (Genç, 2000, p.101) and as it is known, finally, foreign borrowing was used (Tabakoğlu, 1985, pp. 296-297). Although Ottoman bureaucracy was hesitant about foreign borrowing for a long period, in a short time foreign borrowing turned out to be the most frequently used method for budget deficits (Pamuk, 2007b, pp.144-145). Besides, attempts to devise solutions in financial field continued through reforms in budget and tax issues (Güran, 1989, pp 717), and instead of civil tax, a new single tax called “Proportionate Tax” was introduced. In the 19th century, there had been significant differences in the economic structure of the government and significant changes occurred in traditional Ottoman regime (Pamuk, 2002, p.241). Beginning with Tanzimat, possession inventories were made in Hüdâvendigar (Bursa), Ankara, Aydın, Izmir, Konya and Sivas cities (Çadırcı, 1987, p.190). Again in the same period tax resources were determined again by new tax regulations (Tabakoğlu, 2003, p.169), Temettüat inventories were made in order to determine the financial situation of the public, to establish a fair tax system and to increase public revenues; and thus it was attempted to tinker disrupted financial system was tried to be tinkered (Öztürk, 2000, p.550). After the inventory in 1840, all personal assets, real estate, land, cattle, product etc. information were recorded for each house in 1844 in each residential area like districts and villages. Classification of Temettüat registers were grounded on administrative partition and these registers were alphabetically prepared for each province. Total number of Temettüat 222 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period Registers between 1844- 1845 is 17.747 (Başbakanlık Osmanlı Arşivi Rehberi, 2000, p.254). Bartın, which was a significant coastal city of Ottoman Empire during the period (especially in lumbering) is chosen as the sample field for this study. Bartın, today, is one of Turkey’s cities in the West Black Sea Region. Rumor has it that the name Bartın comes from the mythological Greek word “Parthenios”, which means “river”. Bartın, which had fallen under the domination of various states at different times in history, was annexed to the Ottoman Empire with the conquest of Amasra by Mehmet the Conqueror (Mehmed II) in 1460 (Bartın Guide, 1927, p.8). After annexed to the Ottoman Empire, Bartın was affiliated to Bolu district of Anatolian Governorship; it became a town in 1867 and its municipal organization was founded in 1876. After Zonguldak became a city in 1924, Bartın turned to be a district of the city and in 1991, Bartın itself became a city. Today Bartın has 4 districts, namely: Center, Amasra, Ulus and Kurucaşile; 9 municipalities including Arıt, Kozcağız, Kumluca and Abdipaşa towns; and 260 villages (Bartın Valiliği, 2011). Income Sources Income sources in an economy differ according to sectors and locations. Villages or if we are to say it with a more general expression, rural areas are small residential areas where there is no specialization in economic life and indeed, it is not necessarily needed, where production is at the level of earning one’s keep, and where agriculture and husbandry are important income sources (Öztürk, 1996, p.109). These residential areas also inform us about the agriculture in the Ottoman Empire. The economic structure of Ottoman Empire which was based on agriculture in general also stands out in the 11 residential area we work on. Besides, it is also seen that lumbering ranks high on the top as a source of income. In this study, the records of 11 villages annexed to Bartın township, selected as the sample field of the study, and registered to Temettüat Register no 02824 recorded at the ML.VRD.TMT. were examined and it was intended to 223 �Ramazan Arslan demonstrate the features of the economic structure in a rural area of the Ottoman Empire in the midst of the nineteenth century. The villages used in this study are: “Mekeçler” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.4-10), “Kurtköy” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, p.11-16), “Receb Beşeoğlu” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp. 17-21), “Gedikler” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.22-24), “Çayır” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.25-32), “Bonlar” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.32-34), “Kıran” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.35-39), “Hoşafçılar” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.40-41), “Emiroğlu” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.42-43), “Pınarlı” (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.44-49) and “Akmescid’’ (BOA, ML.VRD.TMT No:02824, pp.49-50). Aforementioned rural area had 154 taxpaying houses and all of the residents of these houses were Muslim. Income from lumbering has an important share in the distribution of income sources in the rural area and it takes the first place. We put all lumbering-relevant incomes in Temettüat register under the same topic. Revenue from lumbering within the total product was 59,69% in 1260/1844 in Bartın rural area (graphic 1). This shows that lumbering is an important income source in our study field. Forestland in Bartin is one of the most interesting and among the richest forestlands in Turkey in terms of plant and tree species diversity (Bartın Valiliği, 2011). Agricultural income is the second income source for rural areas. The rate is 33.51%. In this context, income generated from fields, vegetable gardens and grape vines are included in agricultural income sources. The reason for agricultural income to take the second place as an income source can be explained with the economic properties of the region. Income rate generated from being a laborer is 4.66%. Laborer which means worker (Devellioğlu, 2005, p.31) has been a considerable income source in villages. Income from husbandry, on the other hand, ranks last in income resources in the region with a rate of 2.14%. Due to rich pastures and humid climate, bovine breeding is widespread in the region. In the distribution of incomes, large amount of income is obtained from lumbering in villages. Lumbering transportation has an important share in all villages. It is 38, 89%. Income obtained from lumber milling has the second place with a ratio of 36,65%. Income from both lumbering and its 224 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period transportation takes the third place as an income source. Lumber trading is only done in Akmescid village. In all village settlements income from lumbering has an important share as a source of income. Mekeçler Village had the highest agricultural income among total product across the villages. Income from lumbering amounted 58.04% in this village. The lowest agricultural income was in Kıran Village with a rate of 30,04%. Income from husbandry among total product was the highest in Akmescid Village with the rate of 2,14% and lowest in Mekeçler village with 0,21%. There was no income obtained from husbandry in Hoşaflar Village. There was no laborer income in three villages in all sources. Laborer income was the highest in Recep Beşoğlu Village. When income from lumbering is looked into in total product in all villages, it has a big share of 59,69%. Among villages, Kıran village had the highest income from lumbering with a rate of 66,52% (Table 1). Table 1. Distribution of Income Sources by villages Villages Agricultural Income (Kurus) Husbandry Income (Kurus) Labour Income (Kurus) Mekeçler 5.914 50 Kurtköy 4.512 Receb Beşeoğlu 4.392 Karagedikler Lumbering Income (Kurus) Total (Kurus) 450 9.330 15.744 125 500 6.807 11.944 144 1.600 6.551 12.687 2.649 44 700 3.950 7.343 Karaçayır 4.166 59 1.250 6.550 12.025 Bonlar 2.467 36 0 3.700 6.203 Kıran 4.019 111 150 8.901 13.381 Hoşafçılar 761 0 0 1.250 2.011 Emiroğlu 2.269 154 0 3.930 6.353 Pınarlı 4.646 132 150 8.900 13.828 Akmescid 11.153 713 1.550 19.870 33.286 TOTAL 46.948 1.568 6.350 79.739 134.805 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50. Income per house in the rural area was found as 931 kurus (The main currency used in the Ottoman Empire in the first half of the XIX. century). Among the total 11 villages 6 of the villages were recorded to have an income above 225 �Ramazan Arslan the average and 5 of them were recorded to have an income below the average. Table 2. Total Income of the Villages and Income per House Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Kıran Hoşafçılar Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid TOTAL Number of Houses 20 18 12 8 22 6 13 5 6 17 26 153 Total Income 23.426 11.944 12.687 7.343 12.025 6.203 13.381 2.011 6.353 13.828 33.286 142.487 Income per House 1.171 664 1.057 918 547 1.034 1.029 402 1.059 813 1.280 931 In Village Average + + + + + + Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Income per house was the highest in Akmescid Village with an average income of 1,280 kurus per house. And, the lowest average income, on the other hand, was in Hoşaflar Village with 402 kurus per house. The reason behind the high rate of average income in Akmescid village was that lumbering trade was only made in this village. In general, there are no significant differences between the averages of plus and minus income groups. It is possible to say that the income levels of the houses in the same group are close to each other. Land Distribution Total area of land recorded for agricultural purposes (as fields and vegetable gardens) in village settlements was 2033 decares (1 decare equals to one thousand square meters, 0,247 acres). These lands are 100% planted areas. All the lands in the villages were used for planting cereals, vineyards, vegetable gardens. 93,21% (1895 decare) of the agricultural lands were fields and 6,79% (138 decare) of the lands were vegetable gardens. This shows that agricultural production was the second source of income in the region after lumbering. 226 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period In this section, land shares, amount of planted areas and their shares among the total 2033 decare agricultural area will be emphasized. 100% of the 2033 decare land that villages had were planted areas. There were no lands allowed to lie for fallow. Total land amount per taxpaying houses was 13, 29 decares (Özlü, 2008, p.118). Akmescid Village had the highest share in land distribution. Total land amount of this village was 422 decares. The village with the lowest amount of land was Hoşafçılar village with 21 decares. When we look into the amount of land per house, Bonlar Village had the highest rate with 20,33 decares per house. Again Hoşafçılar Village had the lowest amount of land with 4,20 decares per house. In terms of planted area, again Akmescid had the highest amount while Hoşafçılar had the lowest amount of planted area. The amount of planted area in Akmescid Village was 422 decares and the same amount was 21 decares in Hoşafçılar Village. The amount of planted area per house was the highest in Bonlar Village with 20.33 decares per house. The lowest amount was in Hoşafçılar Village with 4.20 decares per house. The total land amount of all villages, the amount of planted and fallow land, amount of land per house is given in detail in Table 3. Table 3. Land Distribution Villages Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Kıran Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid TOTAL Nr. of Houses 20 18 12 8 22 6 13 5 6 17 26 153 Total Planted Area (Decare) 280 206 189 117 195 122 186 21 94 201 422 2033 Planted Area per House (Decare) 14,00 11,44 15,75 14,63 8,86 20,33 14,31 4,20 15,67 11,82 16,23 13,29 Total Land (Decare) 280 206 189 117 195 122 186 21 94 201 422 2033 Land per House (Decare) Planted Area % Unplanted land % 14,00 11,44 15,75 14,63 8,86 20,33 14,31 4,20 15,67 11,82 16,23 13,29 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 - Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 227 �Ramazan Arslan In their distribution by the type of agricultural production and villages, it is seen that the total land reserved for branches of production is used to full capacity. The usage rate of fields reserved for such products as wheat, barley, oat and flax were close to one another. The largest land use in grains production was in Akmescid Village with 380 decares while the least land amount was in Hoşafçılar Village with 17 decares. The land distributed for vegetable gardens was the highest again in Akmescid Village with 42 decares and lowest in Bonlar Village with 5 decares (Table 4). Table 4. Distribution of Agricultural Production Land Village Nr. Of Houses Fields where grains are planted (Decare) % % Total Production (Decare) % 97,50 Vineyard, orchard and vegetable production (Decare) 7 Mekeçler 20 273 2,50 280 100 Kurtköy 18 198 96,12 8 3,88 206 100 Receb Beşeoğlu 12 178 94,18 11 5,82 189 100 Karagedikler 8 110 94,02 7 5,98 117 100 Çayır 22 184 94,36 11 5,64 195 100 Bonlar Village 6 117 95,90 5 4,10 122 100 Kıran Village 13 177 95,16 9 4,84 186 100 Hoşafçılar Village 5 17 80,95 4 19,05 21 100 Emiroğlu 6 83 88,30 11 11,70 94 100 Pınarlı 17 178 88,56 23 11,44 201 100 Akmescid Village 26 380 90,05 42 9,95 422 100 TOTAL 153 1895 93,21 138 6,79 2033 100 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 In all villages a large amount of the land was reserved for grain production. The income from a 1895-decare-field reserved for field crops was 38.352 kurus. The highest revenue was obtained in Akmescid village with 9.155 kurus. The lowest income level was at Hoşafçılar village with 545 kurus. An area of 138 decare was left for vineyards, gardens and vegetable gardens. The revenue from this area was 1998 kurus. The highest revenue was obtained from Kurt Köy with 1.245 kurus. Again, the lowest revenue was at Hoşafçılar Village with 216 kurus. 228 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period The total area reserved for wheat, barley, oat, flax, vineyard and fruits& vegetable was 2033 decares. 46.948 kurus revenue was made from an area of 2033 decares in all villages (Özlü, 2008, p.118). When we compare this income with Akçakoca on the same period, we find a significant difference between the two. It was figured that 46757 kurus revenue would be earned from 746,5 decares area in Akçakoca rural area (See Özlü, p.188). This means 62,63 kurus per decare. On the other hand, 46948 kurus revenue was generated from 2033 decares in Bartın rural area, and such a low number as 23,09 was found per decare. The highest income was obtained in Akmescid Village in all villages with 11.153 kurus. The lowest income was obtained in Emiroğlu Village with 2.269 kurus. Table 5. Distribution of Land by Villages in terms of their usage area and value, 1844 Village Mekeçler Fields where grain production is made Decare Income (Kurus) 273 4.802 Vineyard, orchard and vegetable garden Decare Income (Kurus) 7 1.112 Total Decare 280 Income (Kurus) 5.914 Kurtköy 198 3.267 8 1.245 206 4.512 Receb Beşeoğlu 178 3.681 11 711 189 4.392 Karagedikler 110 2.118 7 531 117 2.649 Çayır 184 3.446 11 720 195 4.166 Bonlar 117 2.125 5 342 122 2.467 Kıran 177 3.407 9 612 186 4.019 Hoşafçılar Village 17 545 4 216 21 761 Emiroğlu 83 2.017 11 252 94 2.269 Pınarlı 178 3.789 23 857 201 4.646 Akmescid 380 9.155 42 1.998 422 11.153 TOTAL 1895 38.352 138 8.596 2033 46.948 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 When we compared Bartın rural area with Bilecik, Bursa and Akçakoca rural areas in the same period, we found totally different ratios. Among the three districts, Bilecik had the highest rate. Bartın rural area had the lowest level of productivity among the four districts. 229 �Ramazan Arslan Table 6. Comparison of Bartın rural area with surrounding districts’ rural areas in terms of productivity (Kurus) City Bilecik Bursa (Öztürk, 1996, p.134) Akçakoca (Özlü, 2008, p.207) Bartın Grain Productivity Level 68,95 44,22 38,50 20,24 The productivity of crops in agricultural land varies according to the type of product; and geographical properties, on the other hand, effect productivity. Differences in practice in the production phase and use of fertilizers also effect productivity. When we leave all other factors aside except the geographical factors and make an evaluation; it is possible to set forth in which productive product a residential area should specialize in by determining in which product a village gets the highest revenue per decare (Öztürk, 1996, p.132). Table 7. Productivity of Agricultural Products by Villages (Kurus) Village Grains Vegetables 347 Grape vine 765 Fruit Tree - Miscellaneous Fruits - Mekeçler 4.802 Kurtköy 5.914 3.267 253 792 - - 4.312 Receb Beşeoğlu 3.681 324 351 - 36 4.392 Karagedikler 2.118 189 306 - 36 2.649 Karaçayır 3.446 234 360 126 - 4.166 Bonlar Village 2.125 117 225 - - 2.467 Kıran Village 3.407 162 387 63 - 4.019 545 72 81 63 - 761 Emiroğlu 2.017 162 - 63 27 2.269 Pınarlı 3.789 324 243 290 - 4.646 Akmescid Village 9.155 713 533 702 - 11.103 38.352 2.897 4.043 1.307 99 46.698 Hoşafçılar Village TOTAL Total Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 The village with the highest productivity in grain production in rural area was Akmescid Village. With a 9.155 kurus revenue Akmescid was the village 230 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period with the highest revenue among all villages and it was also the village with the highest revenue in vegetable and fruit growing. Hoşafçılar Village had the lowest revenue in grain production with 545 kurus revenue. Highest revenue in vegetables belonged to Akmescid Village with 713 kurus revenue. Hoşafçılar village where the lowest revenue was obtained was also the village with the lowest grain and grape revenue. Kurtköy had the highest grape income with 792 kurus and Hoşafçılar had the lowest grape income with 81 kurus. Grapevine and cloth trading income was only obtained in Kurtköy with 100 kurus each. In miscellaneous fruits 99 kurus revenue was obtained in three villages in total. Size of Agricultural Enterprises In Ottoman agricultural statistics, enterprises were divided into three groups according to their size. Companies with an area below 10 decares were grouped as “imalât-ı sağire”(small scale enterprise), those with an area between 10-50- decares were grouped as “ imalât-ı mutavassıta”( medium-sized enterprise), and those with an area more than 50 decares are grouped as “imalât-ı cesime (large-scale enterprise)’’ (Güran, 1998b, p. 242). According to this division the rate of small businesses in Bartın rural area was 18.15% while the rate of medium-sized businesses counts for 81.85%. There were no big-sized enterprises (with an area over 50 decares) among agricultural businesses. And this showed that there were mostly medium-sized enterprises in the villages. According to a study in 2007, when the ratio of the sizes of the agricultural businesses and the area they cover is looked into the total rate of three group business with 50-100 and 100-200 and 200-499 decares (da) size make 60,75%. In Bartın, on the other hand, the number of businesses with 0-20 da make up 29,2%.And the companies with 20-100 da make up the 68,7%. Besides, there are no companies larger than 500 da in Bartın (Sarı, 2007, p.45). 231 �Ramazan Arslan Table 8. Size of Agricultural Enterprises 1-10 Decare % 10-50 Decare % % 87.81 Over 50 decare - Planted field 231 12.19 1664 Vegetable garden 138 100 - 0 - 0 TOTAL/AVERAGE 369 18.15 1664 81.85 - 0 0 Grain Production We see that grain production, which was the most important source of income for Ottoman Empire (Keyder and Tabak, 1998, p.182), had been an important source of income in Ottoman rural areas, a small reflection of the empire, as well. Moving from the data regarding the grain production of eleven villages chosen, numbers about the type of grain and their amounts (table 8) will be presented. All the fields in the Temettüat register, the main source of our study, were planted areas. There were no fields allowed to lie for fallow. Wheat, barley and oat were grown in all villages. Besides, reed plant and flax oil grew in Akmescid too. The highest wheat production was made in Akmescid village with 880 bushels while the lowest production was made in Hoşafçılar village with 50 bushels. As is seen, wheat production took the first place in grain production. In the villages we realized our study, a total amount of 3840 bushels wheat production was made. After wheat, the second most produced grain was barley. Barley was most produced in Kıran Village and least produced in Hoşafçılar Village. The total production of field products was 8315 bushels. The highest share was at Akmescid Village with 1900 bushels and the lowest share was at Hoşafçılar Village with 85 bushels. 232 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period Table 9. Distribution of Grain Production according to their amounts (Bushel) Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL Wheat 370 310 340 230 480 240 390 50 180 370 880 3840 Barley 390 220 270 160 290 120 220 30 140 190 390 2420 Oat 190 120 200 50 190 110 80 5 30 130 350 1455 Reed Plant 120 200 280 600 Total 950 650 810 440 960 470 690 85 470 890 1900 8315 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 We can find if there is a surplus product in the total agricultural production amount of the villages. When doing this, we can use the tithe paid for one year in the villages. Total tithe from wheat in the villages was 384 bushels. Since this tax in-kind corresponds to 10% of the total product, moving from this information we can find the total wheat production as 3840 bushels. When 384 bushels, the tithe, is deducted from the total production, the amount of wheat the villagers would consume in a year is found; and this amount corresponds to 3456 bushels (88.354 kg). Does this amount supply the villagers with the necessary amount they need? When we consider that a person can consume almost 8 bushels (205 kg) of wheat in a year (Güran, 1998 a, p.16), wheat consumption of the villages in the same year is calculated as 6120 bushels (156.978 kg) (Özlü, 2008, pp. 195196). 153 houses, the population of the village is found as 765 by calculating 5 people living in each house. As it is known that each person consumes 8 bushels of wheat every year, total consumption is found as 765 x 8 = 6120 bushels (Barkan, 1953: 1-26). Ömer Lütfi Barkan’s thesis stating that each Ottoman house’s population is five people. The same calculation can be made for Akçakoca rural area. There were 294 houses in Akçakoca. And accordingly, the total population is 1470. Total annual wheat consumption is 1470x8= 11.760. However, the total wheat production in Akçakoca was 1790 bushels. Thus, all dwellings of Akçakoca produce less wheat than 233 �Ramazan Arslan they need. And this brings in mind that the people in the villages provide their wheat need from the districts in the neighborhood partially (Özlü, 2008: 195-196). According to this calculation, it is revealed that villagers cannot even supply their own wheat amount for themselves and their families let alone merchandise it (For similar and comparative calculations see Öztürk, 1996: 146; Küçükkalay & Efe, 2006: 252). The required amount of wheat-deficit for aforementioned villages to nourish themselves is 2.280 bushels or in other words 58.482 kg. However, this deficit should be approached with precaution because in those aforementioned villages such supporting products as barley, oat, reed plant, flax and flax oil were also grown. Husbandry Husbandry is at the bottom of the list as an income source in the region. Its share in the total revenue was 2.14% (Özlü, 2008: 82). In Özlü’s study on Akçakoca, the share of husbandry in Akçakoca rural area was found to have 3% share in total revenue. Between 1811-1864, Akçakoca was a town attached to BoluSafranbolu (Viranşehir) Has Voyvodalığı (Özlü, 2008: 32). Existing husbandry, as far as it seems, was for meeting needs. It is not possible to say that production for the market was made and that husbandry was done as an occupation. It appears that only ox among cattle was used in plowing. Such pack animals as bear, horse, donkey and hinny were not found in the villages. Table 10. Ovine and Cattle Distribution Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL 234 Ovine (Number) Incomegenerating ovine (Number) Total Revenue Cattle (Number) 9 15 10 0 3 24 61 3 14 6 3 14 40 6 14 12 4 29 65 56 35 43 26 23 25 63 5 32 32 110 450 Incomegenerating cattle (Number) 2 6 4 2 2 3 8 8 5 28 68 Total Revenue (Kurus) 20 75 40 20 50 30 80 150 105 598 1168 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period The number of bovine in rural area was 61. Among these 61 animals, 40 of them brought in money; the income generated from these 40 animals was 65 kurus. Akmescid Village ranked in the first place in raising ovine with 24 ovine. Again the highest income from ovine was generated in Akmescid Village with 29 kurus. The total number of cattle was 450. There were cattle in all rural areas. The highest number of cattle was in Akmescid Village. The number of cattle in this village was 110. The income generated from these 110 cattle was recorded as 1168 kurus. An important part of this revenue was generated from milk cows and milk buffalos. The rate of ovine among all animals was 11.94% while the rate of cattle was 88.06%. When we grouped the animals raised in rural areas according to their species (Table 10) we saw that cattle species had the highest share. It is seen that ovine breeding did not develop in the villages in rural areas while bovine breeding significantly improved. Table 11. Total Animal Distribution in Villages by their species Animal species Goat Sheep Cattle Number 15 46 424 % 3,09 9,48 87,42 It is seen in the records that goat and sheep were the animal species in which ovine breeding developed. There was no information on poultry so we cannot comment on poultry. The total number of goats and sheep that we assessed in total ovine was 61. Among these 61 ovine, 15 of them were goats and 46 of them were sheep. Among both species sheep had a predominant place. Annual revenue from 61 ovine was 65 kurus. And 18 kurus of this amount was earned from goats and 47 of it was earned from sheep. It seems that when annual revenue from each animal is considered, sheep was a more productive animal. Among goat species mostly milk goats were raised. Goat was only raised in Emiroğlu (3) and Akmescid (12) villages. And in sheep species again mostly milk sheep were raised. It is seen that these animals were mostly raised in Recep Beşeoğlu village. 235 �Ramazan Arslan The distribution of bovine breeding in the rural area is as follows; Number of cattle was higher than the number of pack animals. Except from milk cow and milk buffalo, no income was generated from the other animals among cattle. The number of draught animals among cattle was high. And among pack animals there were no donkeys in all rural areas except 1 in Emiroğlu village. When we looked into the animal species used for ploughing and packing and those which should be regarded as capital, we saw ox and water buffalo on the top of the list. Only donkey was recorded carrying and apart from donkey, was no other animal like horse and hinny. The total number of bovine animals in the rural area raised for various purposes and used in various areas was 370. Among these animals 369 of them were cattle and 1 on them was pack animal. Annual revenue from 50 milk cows in cattle group was 643 kurus. Average annual revenue per animal was found as 12.86 kurus. In terms of annual revenue, income from milk buffalo took the second place. While income was 10 kurus per milk cow, the same income from each milk buffalo was two and a half times higher than it. The annual revenue from each milk buffalo was 25 kurus (Özlü, 2008, p.165). In a research on Plovdiv city, it was found that 60 kurus income is generated from a buffalo and 5-6 kurus income is generated from a milk cow annually. (Özlü, p.165). The total revenue from cattle was 1193 kurus. The highest number of milk cows was in Akmescid Village. There were 17 milk cows in the village. There were two milk buffalos in each Çayır, Emiroğlu and Ponar villages, and one in both Kurtköy and Kıran Villages. There were no milk buffalos apart from the mentioned ones. The highest number of cattle used for ploughing was in Akmescid village. The total number of cattle used for ploughing in this village was 30. When the number of houses in this village is considered (a total of 24 houses) it is obvious that there are more than one cattle for each house. During the times before mechanization and in fields where mechanization did not apply, cattle was the main agricultural tool and there was almost one cattle for each house in the rural area. According to our calculations, there were 1.02 cattle per house. When we accept that each house had one cattle, it 236 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period means that all household heads in all villages have a cattle. The rate of cattle, used as draught animal, per house in the rural area is shown in Table 11. In the table, we see that the number of draught animal per house is 1.02. The highest number of cattle per house was in Bonlar Village and the number was 1.67 per house, which means there was more than one cattle for each house in this village. The highest number of cattle was in Mekeçler Village and the total number of cattle was 33. However, since the population of the village was high, the number of cattle per house was 1.65. The lowest number of cattle was in Emiroğlu Village and there were 5 draught animals in the village. In Hoşafçılar Village, where there were only 5 houses, there were no draught animals. Table 12. Draught Animal per House Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL/AVERAGE Number of Houses 20 18 12 8 22 6 13 5 6 17 26 153 Total cattle number 33 19 19 12 16 10 16 5 9 17 156 Cattle per House 1.65 1.06 1.58 1.50 0.73 1.67 1.23 0.00 0.83 0.53 0.65 1.02 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 When we looked into the amount of agricultural land per cattle in our sample study field, we saw quite different numbers. As seen in Table 12, village averages differs. On all planted areas scale, the average land per cattle is 13.03. The highest amount of land per cattle was in Akmescid Village. Pınarlı Village followed Akmescid Village with an average land per cattle among all planted area as 22.33 decare. The village where a cattle had the lowest land was Mekeçler Village. The average land for a cattle among all planted area in this village was 8.48 decare. 237 �Ramazan Arslan According to the calculations made, a couple of horses plough 6-7 decare area while a couple of cattle plough 2-3 decare area (Güran, 1998 a, p.86). Accordingly, it was found that a cattle in Bartın rural area was only used for two work days for ploughing. Table 13. Land per cattle Village Number of Total cattle Planted area (Decare) 33 19 19 12 16 10 16 0 5 9 17 156 280 206 189 117 195 122 186 21 94 201 422 2033 Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL/AVERAGE Planted Land per Cattle (Decare) 8,48 10,84 9,95 9,75 12,19 12,20 11,63 0 18,80 22,33 24,82 13,03 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Although beekeeping was not accounted as a source of living, still some villages were engaged in beekeeping. All villages were engaged in beekeeping except from Hoşafçılar and Emiroğlu villages. The total number of bee hives in all villages was 43 and the total annual revenue from beekeeping was 299 kurus. The annual revenue from each bee hive was 6 kurus in all villages except Pınarlı and Akmescid villages. Distribution of Labor Force In village settlements, there were not many occupational diversity as in urban areas. In villages, where main source of income was based on agriculture and husbandry, there was no need for occupational differentiation (Güran, 1985, p.318). However, in rural areas there were reasons to do agricultural and non-agricultural activities together. Because of the density of population in the rural area, not everyone could engage in agriculture (Güran, 1998 b, p.271). 238 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period The rate of agricultural revenue in total revenue in the rural area used as the study field was 35.51%, while the same rate for lumbering was 59.69%. In other words, we see that the income rate earned from an occupation other than agriculture and husbandry and which can be regarded as occupational income had a quite high level in total revenue. This shows that Bartın, located in the West Black Sea Region, was rich in terms of forests. According to Forest Management Map Database of General Directorate of Forestry, Bartın city has 98.578 ha forest area and 13.229..029 cubic meter planted forest. Most of the existing forest areas are high forests (Sarı, 2007, p.23). It can be said that the large amount of forest areas in the region developed lumbering activities. When the occupations of the household heads were specified in the registers their being “erbâb-ı ziraat”(farmer) was indicated clearly. Since almost all of the people engaged in a business other than agriculture had agricultural lands, it is understood that these people were engaged in farming. Recent studies show that almost all of the people living in the villages of Bartın are somehow engaged in agricultural activities (Sarı, 2007, p.44). It is indicated that 10 household heads among 153 in all villages did not have any income. These people without any income were recorded as “Sa'ile”, “unemployed”, “orphan”, “Lunatic”, “Diseased and Alone” and “Asâkir-i Nizâmiye-i Şâhâne”. Only in Çayır Village there was a record of one people as “Asâkir-i Nizâmiye-i Şâhâne”. This person had no property, land or animals and was engaged in merchandising in Adapazarı and later came to Bartın to attend Asâkir-i Nizâmiye-i Şâhâne”. There were other 9 people without any income and without any kind of property. It is stated that those people live off with the support of other people. Apart from these 10 people, all other household heads have some piece of agricultural lands that they work. Most of these household heads were earning their income from lumbering apart from agricultural activities. The share of income obtained from lumbering among total revenue was 59.15%. The number of people with an income from an occupation income breakdown and the share of will be assessed. In all the villages examined, income from lumbering apart from agricultural highest occupation income was Akmescid Village. occupation; total and average this income in total revenue all household heads earned activities. The village with the 239 �Ramazan Arslan Their occupation revenue had 40.70% share in total revenue The rate of occupational income in total revenue in Akçakoca in the same period was quite higher than Bartın and it was 87 % (Özlü, 2008, p.180). Rural area had a total 54.866 kurus occupation income. The village with the highest occupation income was Akmescid Village, which also had the highest number of household heads having an occupation income. The average revenue in all villages was 386.38 kurus. The highest average was again in Akmescid Village with 536.64 kurus. 25 houses out of a total of 26 had an occupation revenue in this village. Distribution of Taxes Tax is transfer of fund to the government from economic resources with a political decision in order to carry on public works (Milliyet Genel Ekonomi Ansiklopedisi I-II, 1988, p.920). And it was the basis of income distribution in pre-industrial economies. This financial system, which was one of the basic dynamics of the empire took its unique place in world finance history with the collapse of the empire (Genç, 1975, p.231). There had been various implementations of tax in Ottoman Empire in terms of how it was imposed, how it was collected and its diversity. In the period before Tanzimat, there were taxes with different rates and collection methods under the main headings of “Tekâlif-i Şer’iye” and “Tekâlif-i Örfiye”. 19th century had been a totally different period for Ottoman society and economy compared to the previous periods. One of the most significant improvements during the century was the reform movements that the Ottoman executives initiated (Pamuk, 2007a, p.238). With Tanzimat, as in other institutions, many reforms were made in financial structure too. Financial institutions and tax system had been the main focus of Tanzimat reforms (Ortaylı, 1974, p.2). In tax practice religious taxes were remitted and substituted by tithe at a rate of one of a tenth in agricultural products and “adet-i ağnam” (literally meaning “sheep tax”) in ovine, jizya taken from non-Muslim citizens. And civil tax was also substituted with “vergü-yi mahsusa” (a private tax) (Güran, 1989, p.13). Jizya was a per capita tax levied on non-Muslim citizens in Ottoman Empire (Karaman and Pamuk, 2010, p.599). 240 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period Vergü-yi Mahsusa (Private tax) This tax which was allocated somehow considering the income of the people and which was substituted for civil tax during Tanzimat period began to be implemented as of 1840. The amount of this tax was determined in sanjak scale and the total amount was divided between the districts. Later the members of the town council used to determine the amount that each town or village had to pay in a meeting where, according to the ethnicity of the population, imam and priest were participating; finally the tax was allocated according to the abilities of the people to pay. In determining the amount of the tax, the total amount of removed civil tax was based on and the ability of the taxpayers to pay which was used when allocating the tax among taxpayers was determined by a census. In this new practice, real estate, land, animal and if the person is engaged, their trade income was grounded on. In order to determine this financial strength fairly and to allocate the tax in a just manner according to people’s ability to pay, inventories were taken in 1844 in a large part of the country. And as a result of these inventories “Property, Land, Animal and Temettüat Registers” were prepared. During the inventories taxman began tax registering from the villages and registered every single person’s name and reputation, their property, land and animals, average amount of revenue of the merchants and tradesmen. And a notable person would be appointed by the city council to each town to help the taxman for registry and a secretary would be appointed to them. Registries were to be made on a properly and fairly, and those who make wrong or incomplete register would be punished. During the collection, the mukhtar of the village or neighborhood, imam or clerk registered the collection they made to the register book with a name of the household head and would bring the book and money to the district. The taxes that people paid were registered to the book at the district and the amount money and date of the payment were written and sealed by the principal and presiding officer. During the collection and the delivery of the tax to the taxman, zaptiah soldiers were also appointed for security reasons. 241 �Ramazan Arslan The collection of this tax was made in two installations as “ruz-ı Hızır” and “ruz-ı kasım” until 1261/1845. And each installation was collected in three other installations. However, since these collection periods were not appropriate for collection, from this date on the tax was to be collected step by step from the farmers from harvest period till the end of the year, and from merchants and tradesmen it was to be collected in a year in installations. With this regulation in 1864, paying the tax in 10 installations was introduced. This tax which was based on identifying property, land and other income resources of the public and taxation according to their ability to pay was abolished in 1860 and instead, land and income taxes were brought (Öztürk, 1996, p.176). After all these general information about taxes, we will now put an emphasis on the shape of Vergü-yi Mahsusa in Ottoman rural area. From the Temettüat register sequence no: 02824, we know the amount of tax allocated to villages in the rural area. Here we will look into the allocation of taxes in the villages from the registers belonging to the villages. When we look into the average amount of tax levied per house, it is seen that the amount is 187,10 kurus in total rural scale. And when we look at village averages we see that 6 villages are above this average and 5 villages are below the averages. Highest average tax was seen in Akmescid Village as 241,73 kurus. The lowest average tax was seen in Hoşafçılar Village as 98 kurus. Total vergü-yi mahsusa in all villages is 28.627. Tithe The word tithe means a one tenth part of something (Akdağ, 1999, p.408); and in Islam land law it means a land tax at a rate of 1/10 and 1/20 taken from the products raised in lands whose owners converted to Islam with their own will and from the lands which were won after a war and divided among the war veterans. Tithe taken directly from the producers (Keyder and Tabak, 1998, p.146) is like a religious service and regarded as the zakat of the land and was only taken from Muslims and the owned land. Tithe in the Ottoman Empire was the name of the money taken from demesne. Since the word exaction would not 242 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period be approved among the public, it was called as tithe and thus, had been used for centuries. Tithe was taken from all products in agriculture. It was taken from all grains and grain types, products raised in vegetable gardens, fruits, vineyards and grape products, pastures and other agricultural products; and the collection of this tax was made in three ways: in kind, in cash and fixed. This tax was not previously transferred to the national treasury but paid to the land owner by rayah working on the land. After the corruption of manorial system the authority of demesne was given to tacksman, taxman and civil servants. During Tanzimat tithe was collected at a rate of one tenth. Tithe, the most efficient source for the finance of socio-economic development, was remitted in 17 February 1341 (1925) and was replaced by “mahsulat-ı araziye (land income)” (Öztürk, 1996, pp. 184-185). Following these historical improvement phases of tithe, the tithe per house, its share in total tithe and the rates of tithe in Bartın rural area will be highlighted. Burden of tithe tax varies in each house according to the capacity of agricultural lands in rural area and according to the products. In all rural areas, the total tithe occurred as 5.366 kurus. The average tithe burden per house is 35.07 kurus. The highest tithe average per house was seen in Akmescid Village. Here the average tithe per house was 47.04 kurus. The highest tithe tax burden in rural area was also seen in Akmescid Village which had the highest average tax burden per house. The lowest average was found in Hoşafçılar Village as 84 kurus. Since the total number of tax payers in Hoşafçılar Village was only 5, the total tax amount was low. The Share of Taxes in Total Revenue The share of Vergü-yi Mahsusa in total revenue in rural area was 20.09, and the share of tithe was 3.77. Among villages, the village with the highest Vergü-yi Mahsusa was Çayır Village. The share of Vergü-yi Mahsusa in total revenue in Çayır Village was 243 �Ramazan Arslan found as 26.25%. And the lowest rate was found in Mekeçler Village. The highest rate of tithe among the total revenue was again found in Çayır Village with 4.94% and the lowest rate was found in Mekeçler Village with 2.84%. When we looked into rural areas in terms of net revenue, it was found that Mekeçler village had the highest net revenue with 79.54% excluding tithe and tax and Hoşafçılar Village had the lowest revenue with 71.46%. The average of all rural area was 76.14%. The share of Vergü-yi Mahsusa and tithe in total revenue and the rate of net revenue is given in Table 14 below on village scale. Table 14. Vergü-yi Mahsusa, Tithe and Net Revenue Rates Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL/ AVERAGE Total Revenue (Kurus) 23,426 11,944 12,687 7,343 12,025 6,203 13,381 2,011 6,353 13,828 33,286 142,487 Vergiyi Mahsusa (Kuruş) 4,128 2,660 2,558 1,296 3,156 1,252 2,546 490 1,332 2,924 6,285 28,627 Tithe (Kuruş) 665 485 525 302 594 277 434 84 254 523 1,223 5,366 Net Revenue (Kuruş) 18,633 8,799 9,604 5,745 8,275 4,674 10,401 1,437 4,767 10,381 25,778 108,494 Vergü-yi Mahsusa % 17.62 22.27 20.16 17.65 26.25 20.18 19.03 24.37 20.97 21.15 18.88 20.09 Product Tithe % 2.84 4.06 4.14 4.11 4.94 4.47 3.24 4.18 4.00 3.78 3.67 3.77 Net Revenue % 79.54 73.67 75.70 78.24 68.81 75.35 77.73 71.46 75.04 75.07 77.44 76.14 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Vergü-yi Mahsusa and Tithe in Tax Burden Vergü-yi Mahsusa and tithe burden in total revenue developed at different levels in different villages. The rate of Vergü-yi Mahsusa and tithe in all tax expenditures in all rural area was 84.21% and 15.79%, respectively. The highest Vergü-yi Mahsusa was at Mekeçler Village with 86.13% and the lowest was at Karagedikler Village with 81.10%. The situation with tithe regarding the highest and lowest levels was vice versa. It was the lowest in Mekeçler Village and highest in Karagedikler Village. 244 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period The rates of Vergü-yi Mahsusa and tithe in total tax burden realized in the villages are given in Table 15 below. Table 15. The rate of Vergü-yi Mahsusa and Tithe in Total Tax Village Mekeçler Kurtköy Receb Beşeoğlu Karagedikler Çayır Bonlar Village Kıran Village Hoşafçılar Village Emiroğlu Pınarlı Akmescid Village TOTAL/ AVERAGE Vergiyi mahsusa (Kuruş) Tithe (Kuruş) Total (Kuruş) 4,128 2,660 2,558 1,296 3,156 1,252 2,546 490 1,332 2,924 6,285 28,627 665 485 525 302 594 277 434 84 254 523 1,223 5,366 4,793 3,145 3,083 1,598 3,750 1,529 2,980 574 1,586 3,447 7,508 33,993 Vergü-yi Mahsusa % 86.13 84.58 82.97 81.10 84.16 81.88 85.44 85.37 83.98 84.83 83.71 84.21 Product Tithe % 13.87 15.42 17.03 18.90 15.84 18.12 14.56 14.63 16.02 15.17 16.29 15.79 Total Tax % 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: BOA, ML. VRD. TMT, 1844, 02824, pp. 4-50 Conclusion Bartın is a province located in the West Black Sea in Turkey today. The surface area of the province is 2.143 km2, while the total population is 188.436 according to the address-based population registration system of Turkey Statistical Institute dated 31.12.2012. The province became an Ottoman land in 1460 and became a town attached to Zonguldak province in 1924 and a province status in 1991. The province today has 4 districts, 8 municipalities and 260 villages. In the socio-economic development rank among the provinces in Turkey, Bartın ranks the 48th province. The main elements identifying its economic structure are mining, industry, agriculture, tourism and forestry. There are also such handicrafts as embroidery, traditional flattened metal threads (a kind of embroidery), weaving, wood engraving as well as ship building. The most important city in terms of tourism is Amasra. Agricultural and industrial goods make up the domestic and foreign trade of the city. Leading agricultural products are wheat, barley, corn and oat, apple, pear, quince, medlar, cherry, plum, walnut, chestnut, nut, peach, cranberry, strawberry, kiwi and mulberry. This study examined the economic structure of Bartın province in the mid 19th century and it was found that agriculture, husbandry and forest products were 245 �Ramazan Arslan significant in the economic structure of the city. First of all, income resources of these chosen villages was found to be including 5 items which are agricultural, husbandry, being a laborer, lumbering and unexpected. It was observed that in a rural area chosen as the study field in Ottoman Empire, which was an agrarian state, lumbering was at the top of the list with 59.69% and on the contrary, agricultural income was in the second line of the list with 33.51% and husbandry was at the bottom of the list with 2.14%. It was found that there were differences in the distribution of income sources in different villages and that average revenue per house was 931 kurus. It was also found that 6 of those 11 villages were above the average and 5 of them were below the average and that there were no big differences in the averages of income groups. When the agricultural production is looked into, it was found that such grains as wheat, barley, oat and flax were raised as well as vineyards, fruits and vegetables; and the total land amount in village scale was 2033 decare. All those land were planted; 93.21% of the land was used as fields (1895 decare), 6.79% (138 decare) was used as vegetable gardens. The land for each tax-paying house was 13.29 decare, and the land used for grain production was 8315 bushel. Wheat is raised in large part of this grain production area. In terms of the size of agricultural enterprises, the share of small businesses was 18.15% and share of medium-sized businesses was 81.85%. In those sample eleven villages, it was found that there were mostly medium-sized businesses and that there were no large-scale businesses. It was seen that husbandry was not practiced as an occupation but as a means to meet the needs. In all villages, bovine breeding was in the forefront (88.06%). The share of ovine breeding was 11.94%. Annual income was obtained from milk cows and milk buffalos. Buffalo oxen were used as draught animals. In 153 houses in the rural area there were 156 oxen; which means there were 1.02 draught animal per house. This rate shows that each household heads had one draught animal. The average amount of land for one ox in planted areas was 13.03 and the days that each ox was used for ploughing was two working days on average. 246 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period With regards to occupational income, there are 10 household heads among 153 who did not have any income source. And these people were recorded under “beggar”, “unemployed”, “orphan”, “lunatic”, “diseased and lonely” names. The total occupational income in the rural area was 54.866 kurus and the income average was 386.38 kurus. The share of occupational income in total revenue was found as 40.70%. The total revenue of the rural area was calculated as 142,487 kurus and the Vergü-yi Mahsusa was calculated as 28.627 kurus. As a result of the calculations, tax burden imposed per house was found as 187.10 kurus. It was stated that six villages were taxed above this village average and five villages were taxed below the average. On the other hand, tithe burden in the rural area was 5,366 kurus and tithe per house was calculated as 35.07 kurus. Finally, when the total amount of wheat and the tithe paid in the villages is taken into account, it is determined that there are no surplus product in agricultural production amount. This finding showed that in the sample rural area of Ottoman Empire in this study, the villagers could not even provide themselves with the amount of wheat they need for a year let alone they merchandise it. In short, Bartın a town of Viranşehir Sanjak in mid-19th century during the Ottoman period was a settlement with an economy based heavily on forestry products, agriculture and husbandry. References Akdağ, M. (1999). Türkiye’nin İktisadî ve İçtimaî Tarihi (1243-1453), c.1, Barış Kitabevi, Ankara. Barkan, Ö.L. (1953). Tarihi Demografi Araştırmaları ve Osmanlı Tarihi, Türkiye Mec., C:X, İstanbul. Barkan, Ö.L. (2000). Osmanlı Devleti’nin Sosyal ve Ekoonmik Tarihi, Tetkikler, Makaleler, c.1, Yayına Hazırlayan Hüseyin Özdeğer, Dilek Ofset Matbaacılık, İstanbul. 247 �Ramazan Arslan Bartın Rehberi (1927). Publication of Bartın Chamber of Commerce and Industry, (Printed with Ottoman letters), Şirket-i Mürettebiye Matbaası. Bay, G.E. (2010). 19. Yüzyılda Banaz Kazası’nın Sosyo-Ekonomik Yapısı, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul. Çadırcı, M. (1987). Tanzimat Döneminde Anadolu Kentlerinin Sosyal ve Ekonomik Yapısı, Türk Tarih Kurumu Yayınları, Ankara. Devellioğlu, F. (2005). Osmanlıca-Türkçe Ansiklopedik Lûgat, Aydın Kitabevi, Ankara. Genç, M. (1975). Osmanlı Maliyesinde Malikane Sistemi, Türkiye İktisat Tarihi Semineri, Mart Matbaası, Ankara. Genç, M. (2000). Osmanlı İmparatorluğu’nda Devlet ve Ekonomi, Ötüken Yayınları, İstanbul. Governorship of Bartın, Retrieved July 07, 2011, from http://www.bartin.gov.tr Güran, T. (1985). On Dokuzuncu Yüzyıl Ortalarında Ödemiş Kasabası’nın SosyoEkonomik Özellikleri, İÜİF, Ord. Prof. Dr. Ömer Lütfi Barkan’a Armağan Özel Sayısı, İstanbul. Güran, T.(1989). Tanzimat Döneminde Osmanlı Maliyesi: Bütçeler ve Hesapları (1841-1861), Türk Tarih Kurumu Yayını, Ankara. Hazine Güran, T. (1998a). 19.Yüzyıl Osmanlı Tarımı, Eren Yayıncılık, İstanbul. Güran, T. (1998b). Osmanlı Tarım Ekonomisi 1840-1910, 19. Yüzyıl Osmanlı Tarımı Üzerine Araştırmalar, Eren Yayıncılık, İstanbul. İnalcık, H. (1996). Tarihi İstatistikler Dizisi Başlarken, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu’nun ve Türkiye’nin Nüfusu 1507-1927”, Tarihi İstatistikler Dizisi, c. II, Yayına Hazırlayan: Cem Behar, T.C. Başbakanlık DİE, Mayıs. Karaman, K.K. & Pamuk, Ş. (2010). “Ottoman State Finances in European Perspective, 1500-1914”, The Journal of Economic History, Vol.70, No.3 (September 2010). 248 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period Keyder, Ç. & Tabak, F. (Ed) (1998). Osmanlı’da Toprak Mülkiyeti ve Ticari Tarım, Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları, İstanbul. Küçükkalay, A. M. & Efe, A. (2006). Osmanlı Ziraî Sektörünün Ticarileşebilme İmkânı Üzerine Bir Deneme:1844-45 Alpu Village Örneği. Ankara Üniversitesi Osmanlı Tarihi Araştırma ve Uygulama Merkezi Dergisi,20, 245-279. Milliyet Genel Ekonomi Ansiklopedisi (1988). I-II, c. 2, İstanbul. Ortaylı, İ. (1974). Tanzimattan Sonra Mahalli İdareler (1840-1878), Sevinc̦ Matbaası, Ankara. Özlü, Z. (2008). XVIII. Ve XIX. Yüzyıllarda Karadeniz’de Bir Kıyı Kenti Akçakoca, Yeditepe Yayınevi, İstanbul. Öztürk, S. (1996). Tanzimat Döneminde Bir Anadolu Şehri: Bilecik, Kitabevi Yayınları, İstanbul. Öztürk, S. (2000). Temettüat Tahrirleri, Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi, Yıl:2, Sayı:4-5 (Osmanlı Özel Sayısı), İstanbul. Pamuk, Ş. (2002). Küreselleşme Çağında Osmanlı Ekonomisi (1820-1914), Türkler, C.14, Ankara. Pamuk, Ş. (2007a). Osmanlı-Türkiye İktisadî Tarihi 1500-1914, İletişim Yayınları, İstanbul. Pamuk, Ş. (2007b). Osmanlı Ekonomisi ve Kurumları, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, İstanbul. Prime Ministry Ottoman Archives (BOA): BOA, ML (Maliye, VRD ( Vâridât Muhasebesi Defteri), TMT (Temettüat), Nr: 02824, Yıl: 1844(1260). Prime Ministry Ottoman Archives Directory (2000). Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry General Directorate of State Archives, Publication No: 42, İstanbul. 249 �Ramazan Arslan Sarı, S. (2007). Bartın İli Tarım Coğrafyası, Unpublished Post Graduate Thesis, Sakarya University Institute of Social Sciences. Tabakoğlu, A. (1985). Gerileme Dönemine Girerken Osmanlı Maliyesi, Dergah Yayınları, İstanbul. Tabakoğlu, A. (2003). Türk İktisat Tarihi, Dergâh Yayınları, İstanbul. Appendices Appendix 1. Map of Turkey (Bartın indicated). Source: http://www.hgk.msb.gov.tr/english/downloads.php Retrieved on October 24, 2013. 250 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period Appendix 2. Map of Zonguldak (Bartın indicated). Source: BOA, HRT, h, 00589-00001: Zonguldak'ı gösteren harita, Year: 1311 (Rumi calendar) / 1894 (Julian calendar) 251 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2412 Title A name given to the resource Economic Structure in Bartın District of Viransehir Sanjak in late Ottoman Period Author Author Arslan , Ramazan Abstract A summary of the resource. This study aims to look into the economic structure of Bartın province, located in West Black Sea Region in Turkey, in the 19th century. The main resource of the study is the temettüat register no 02824 that belongs to Bartın, which was formed on the basis of the census in 1844-1845. Temettüat registers are significant archive resources that provide statistical information about the period studied as well as the region itself. Moving from data suc as the income resources, distribution of land, husbandry and labor, this study examines the economic structure of Bartın, which used to be a District of Viransehir Sanjak during the time. The study will also contribute to the literature by giving insights into the economy of Ottoman rural area in the 19th century. In addition to forestry products, the economy of Bartın depended on agriculture and husbandry during the time period studied. Agricultural production included such main products as wheat and barley while agricultural enterprises were medium-scale businesses. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-07-15 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/3928de5bf88f9e81ff9b077e7eca3390.pdf b2244636bb0c7d6ced1b65fd98efd3c6 PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Economic Variable Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study in Turkey Abdülhamit SUBAŞI Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Sütcü Imam University, Kahramanmaraş, Turkey asubasi@ksu.edu.tr Erkan ĐLGÜN Department of Management International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina eilguen@ibu.edu.ba Abstract: Since financial and economic time series are nonlinear, neural networks can be efficiently used in the financial and economic time series forecasting. In this paper we used machine learning technique for data mining to evaluate the predictive relationships of economic variables of Turkey. Neural network models are examined for their capability to provide an efficient forecast of future values. For illustration and confirmation purposes, the proposed model is conducted on typical economic time series. Empirical results obtained show that the proposed neural-network-based nonlinear modeling technique is a very promising approach to economic time series forecasting. Keywords: ANN, Turkey, Economic time series forecasting. 1. Introduction Several factors impact financial markets, including political events, general economic circumstances, and even traders’ expectations. Due to the high degrees of irregularity and nonlinearity, financial and economic time series forecasting is regarded as a rather challenging task (Lai/Yu/Wang/Zhou, 2006; Yu/Wang/Lai, 2005; Yu//Lai, 2009). The non-stationary characteristic of financial and economic time series implies that the distribution of these time series is changing over time. As a result, for traditional linear models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), it is very complicated to capture the irregularity and nonlinearity hidden in financial and economic time series. Recently, artificial neural Networks (ANNs) were effectively used in financial and economic time series modeling and forecasting (Yu/Wang/Lai, 2005; Yu//Lai, 2009; Yu,Wang/Lai 2007; Cheng/Wanger/Lin 1996; Sharda/Patil 1994; Van/Robert 1997; Kaastra/Milton 1995; Francis/Lijuan 2001). Unlike traditional statistical models, neural networks are data-driven, non-parametric models. Therefore, neural networks are less vulnerable to the problem of model misspecification as compared to most of the parametric models. As a result, if compared to traditional statistical models, neural networks are more efficient in describing the dynamics of financial and economic time series Francis/Lijuan 2001; Zhang/Michael 1998; Chiang/Urban/Baildridge 1996). Actually, neural networks suggest a novel technique that does not necessitate a pre-specification during the modeling procedure because they independently learn the relationship inherent in the variables. Moreover neural networks suggest the flexibility of several architecture types, learning algorithms, and validation procedures (Enke/Thawornwong 2005). With the increasing globalization process and technological improvement in the information technology sector the movement of factors over the globe raises. Technology, capital stock and labor force is the factor that determines economic output, according to the literature on growth (Jones 1997). Without any doubt, there exist a considerable gap between developing and developed countries when qualified labor force, technology advance and capital stock as well is considered. Consequently the immense gap between the annual output levels of developed and developing countries are assigned to the differences in these factors. For developing countries it is much more exhaustive to meet the very expensive Research and Development activities. Researchers have long been concerned with the underlying data-generating process for key macroeconomic variables such as GNP, GDP and inflation. There have been various macroeconomic timeseries studies based on ANN models. In these models, one set of parameters governs the evolution of the dependent variable. In this work, we used a neural network approach for the prediction of gross national product (GNP) of TURKEY. Hence we will briefly review and discuss the economic structure of Turkey in the next section. In section three, we will briefly review and discuss the artificial neural network (ANN) model. The resulting data selection and model development, empirical results, and conclusion will then be presented, respectively. 212 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 2. Economic Development of Turkey The flows of factors of production over the globe increases with the ongoing globalization process and additional improvements of the information technology. Technology, capital stock and labor force is the factor that determines Economic output according to the literature on growth. (Jones 1997) Without any doubt, there exist a considerable gap between developing and developed countries when qualified labor force, advanced technological utilities and capital stock as well is considered. It can be concluded that the immense gap between the annual output levels of developed and developing countries are assigned to the differences in these factors. An increased allowance of less developed countries to the liberalization policies of the early 80s was an important matter for policy makers to integrate their own economy in the world. A rough division of the Turkish economic history can be seen from the perspective of macroeconomic reorientation from the import-led industrialization to trade liberalization and export oriented growth strategy dominated up to the 1980s. According to various influential factors in the history Turkey had put many barriers in front of international trade and investment and devoted herself to state-controlled enterprises before 1980s. Growth was based for a long-term on import strategy. After suffered economic disruptions the National Committee of the State Planning Unit has been established as a constitutional institution. With the five-year plans between 1963 - 1980 developing plans were that both the State as well as from the private sector constructive impulses of the Turkish economy should be accompanied (Mixed Economy). In order to control the high inflation, rising unemployment numbers, political violence the Government announced on 24.01.1980, with the support of international financial and economic organizations, the start of the necessary fundamental economical, legal and institutional change to strengthening the integration of Turkey into the global economy. (Ekinci 1990, Kepenek/Yentürk 1997, Metin-Ozcan/Voyoda/Yeldan 2001; Alici/Ucal 2003) In the 80s began the liberalization of trade and financial deregulation, where the control of capital flows repealed and the Turkish currency from this time was fully convertible. In 1996 the customs union with the European Union continued. With the more integration Turkey’s economy to the global capital and financial markets their serious consequences was felt in Turkey during the crisis in 1999. Following the two crises in 1991 and 1994 the macroeconomic environment, forced the government towards the end of 1999 to implement a stabilization program with the intention to reduce the rate of inflation, the real interest rate and the debt stock of Turkey. As a result of the 1994 crisis, the more expensive imported goods resulting from the nominal depreciation and the high short-term interest rates decreased the industrial production having an impact on the economic output. (Celasun 1994; Celasun/Denizer/He 1999) Hence the economic performance broke again with the crisis in 1991 and 1994. Due to a dispute between the then Prime Minister Ecevit and President Sezer in February 2001 a new crisis sparked in Turkey. The main challenge for the government was the restore of macroeconomic balance subject to reduce inflation and sustained economic growth. With the launch of the new economic stabilization program after the 2001 crisis the positive trend continues. 2002 and 2003 were the years of economic recovery from the crisis of 2001. So far Turkey lacks low confidence, weak governance and informal sector in the past that prevented sustainable economic growth (OECD, Policy Brief: Economic Survey of Turkey 2004, October) with the retrieval of economic stability the focus was set on sustainable economic growth. After the short-lived coalition governments and coalition governments a single party government came to power with the 2004 elections. Political stability was obtained and provided huge external support as well as positive affects of the EU reforms economic stability has been further reinforced Turkey is still in comparison to most existing EU members very weak, but is also dynamic. Since 2002 Turkey has had a robust economic growth. Investments (both private and public), industrial production as well as degree of capacity utilization have been increased during the time period between 2001-2007 as well. By closer contemplation there is a relationship between industrial production and economic growth. Foreign Direct investments can be quoted as another determinant that affected economic growth. (Alici/Ucal 2003) FDI plays a serious role in the development of closing the gap with industrialized nations (catch up) and the alignment with EU standards (convergence). Overall after the first crisis in Turkey there was a shift from the mainly public economy to the private sector's which put focus on effort to increase the efficiency in order to remain global competitive. 3. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model The multilayer perceptron network is the most commonly used neural network in economic and financial time series modeling. In general, the network represents the way the human brain processes input sensory data, received as input neurons, into recognition as an output neuron. The interconnected neurons generate expectations or forecasts which lead to reactions and decisions in financial data. Mainly, actions come from forecasts based on the parallel processing of interconnected neurons (McNelis 2005). The input variables are fed into a layer of units making up the input layer for each training sample. The weighted outputs of these 213 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo units are then fed to a hidden layer. The weight outputs of the hidden layer are input to units making up the output layer which issues the network’s prediction for a given set of samples. Back propagation is the most popular neural network algorithm. It is a method for assigning responsibility for mismatches to each of the processing elements in the network by propagating the gradient of the activation function back through the network to each hidden layer down to the first hidden layer. The weights are then modified so as to minimize the mean squared error between the network’s prediction and the actual target (Enke/Thawornwong 2005). 4. Results and Discussion The main objective of this study was to investigate the applicability of the ANN technique in the prediction of GNP time series. The selection of the input variables is a modeling decision that can significantly influence the model performance. In the neural network situation, the information gain data mining analysis was used to find good subsets of the full set of the first-period input variables. Thus, overall balance, foreign direct investment, gross fixed investment, labor force and gross national product (GNP) variables were consistently used as the input variables for training the neural networks throughout the modeling phase. The values of the input variables were first preprocessed by normalizing them to decrease the effect of magnitude between the inputs and thus increase the effectiveness of the learning algorithm. It is well known that most trading practices implemented by financial analysts rely on precise prediction of the financial instruments. After many experiments with various numbers of hidden layer neurons, learning algorithms, and learning rates, the feedforward neural network employing 5 neurons in the input-layer, 10 neurons in the hidden layer, 0.05 learning rate, and a gradient descent back propagation training algorithm was found to be the best network architecture based on the lowest average root-mean squared error. ANN training is not firm since the training process may depend on the choice of a random start. Training is also computationally expensive in terms of the training times used to determine the appropriate network structure. The degree of success, therefore, may fluctuate from one training pass to another. The focus of this section of the paper was to examine and discuss the results obtained from the ANN model. In this model, five basic economic variables were presented in the network as input parameters to determine the relationship between GNP properties and parameter. In order to develop an ANN model, the input parameters were also individually excluded from the input parameters. As previously mentioned, developed ANN models were tested by data sets from the State Planning Organization, which were not employed in the training stage. To evaluate how accurate the result of the developed ANN model is, the coefficient of correlation (R2) was used as statistical verification tools. Estimated values were graphically compared with the actual values as in Figure1. As can be seen, the ANN models were found to be able to learn the relationship between the input parameters overall balance, foreign direct investment, gross fixed investment, laborforce and gross national product (GNP). Figure 2 gives the statistical performance of the ANN model. It appears that there is a relatively good agreement between the ANN predictions and the actual data. This can be interpreted from the R2 value 0.976. R2 value of the model reflects the overall error performance of the model. One can clearly see that ANN model gives good correlation between the estimated and real GNP values. Consequently, when the results in figures are evaluated, it can be concluded that ANN models can be used for the prediction of GNP. The predictive performance of the developed model was estimated using the untouched out-of-sample (testing) data. This is due to the fact that the superior in sample performance does not always guarantee the validity of the forecasting accuracy. One possible approach for evaluating the forecasting performance is to investigate whether traditional error measure such as correlation coefficient (R2) between the actual out-of sample returns and their predicted values are small or highly correlate, respectively. Hence, the prediction of the forecasting model must be adjusted for unbiased performance comparisons. The empirical results show that ANN can accurately estimate GNP because of the high correlation (R2) relationship. This is due to the fact that the correlation (R2) of these models indicates higher positive relationship between the actual and predicted values of GNP. The findings strongly support the non-linearity relationship between the past economic variables. 5. Conclusions In this study we investigate the predictive power of economic variables by using ANN as machine learning technique for data mining. The study has focused on input data, forecasting methodology and measures used for performance evaluation. This approach seems suitable in selecting the variables when the usefulness of the data is unknown, especially when nonlinearity exists in the economic variables as found in this study. The observation is that neural networks model is suitable for GNP forecasting. ANN gives better results as trading systems and higher forecasting accuracy. In conclusion, both researchers and practitioners have studied financial and economic time series prediction for many years. Many studies conclude that some economic variables can be predicted by using 214 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo ANN. To this end, our finding suggests that economic forecasting is always and will remain difficult since such data are greatly influenced by economical, financial, political, international, and even natural events. Obviously, this study covers only fundamental available information, while the technical analysis approach remains intact. References Alici, A. A./Ucal, M. S.(2003): Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis, Paper to be Presented at the European Trade Study Group, Fifth Annual Conference, 11-13 September 2003, Madrid Celasun, O./Denizer, C./He, D.(1999): Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Management, and the Financial System: The Turkish Case, 1987-1997, World Bank Working Paper 2141 Celasun, M. (1994): Trade and Industrialization in Turkey: Initial Conditions, Policy and Performance in the 1980s in Hellenier, G. K. (Ed.) Trade Policy and Industrialization in Turbulent Times, Routledge Cheng W., Wanger, L., Lin, C. H. (1996). 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The application of neural networks in the forecasting of share prices. Haymarket, VA, USA: Finance & Technology Publishing. Yu, L.,Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2009). A neural-network-based nonlinear metamodeling approach to financial time series forecasting, Applied Soft Computing 9, 563–574. Yu, L., Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2007). Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting With Artificial Neural Networks, Springer, New York. Yu, L., Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2005). A novel nonlinear ensemble forecasting model incorporating GLAR and ANN for foreign exchange rates, Computers & Operations Research 32 (10), 2523–2541. Zhang GQ, Michael YH. (1998). Neural network forecasting of the British Pound=US Dollar exchange rate. Omega; 26(4):495–506. 215 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 400 Actual Estimated 350 GNP 300 250 200 150 1992 1995 1998 Years 2001 2004 2006 Figure 1. Comparison of actual values with the results obtained from the ANN model Figure 2. Performance of ANN model for testing dataset. 216 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 203 Title A name given to the resource Economic Variable Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study in Turkey Author Author SUBASI, Abdülhamit iLGÜN, Erkan Abstract A summary of the resource. Since financial and economic time series are nonlinear, neural networks can be efficiently used in the financial and economic time series forecasting. In this paper we used machine learning technique for data mining to evaluate the predictive relationships of economic variables of Turkey. Neural network models are examined for their capability to provide an efficient forecast of future values. For illustration and confirmation purposes, the proposed model is conducted on typical economic time series. Empirical results obtained show that the proposed neural-network-based nonlinear modeling technique is a very promising approach to economic time series forecasting. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory