70 10 3494 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3606 Title A name given to the resource CORRELATION OF KI-67 PROLIFERATIVE INDEX WITH BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF INTRACRANIAL TUMORS Author Author Zejnelagić, Azra Abstract A summary of the resource. INTRODUCTION: The biological behavior of intracranial tumors is associated with the main histopathological characteristics of neoplastic tissue and refers to the presence of mitosis, vascular proliferation, hyperhromasia sails and necrosis. The proliferation of tumor cells can be quantitatively assessed by measuring Ki-67 proliferative (lebeling) index. Various studies have shown the existence of a significant correlation between Ki-67 proliferation index and the biological behavior of intracranial tumor, its grade, tendencies to recurrence and recidive. HYPOTHESIS: High Ki-67 proliferative index indicates a tendency for recurrence and recidive of radically resected intracranial tumors. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This study enrolled 40 cases of intracranial tumours which include the benign extrinsic intracranial tumors and malignant intrinsic intracranial tumours. Immunohistochemical analysis was performed for staining of biopsies. Pearson’s chi square test was used to determine statistical correlation between Ki-67 and recurrence and survival of tumour. RESULTS: We found a statistically significant correlation between the biological behavior of intracranial tumors and Ki67 index, and we determined that the high percentage of Ki-67 index in malignant neoplasms can be grounds for anticipation of their postoperative index. Keywords: Intracranial tumors, Ki-67, Recurrence, Recidive, Proliferation, Neoplasmas Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2016 Keywords Keywords. Thesis NonPeerReviewed QR Microbiology https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c4e611247fe1d0e53a36d76d274492fd.doc 6301614505e52113e571cc2422e4c926 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/0726b960c1baa0106dc2730d0eed4dda.pdf b9a126191f79036bf4c2e229437528cb PDF Text Text BOOK OF ABSTRACTS Corruption as economic and political phenomenon in countries in transition Amina Šljivo International Burch University / Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Keywords: corruption, government, democracy, countries in transition, anticorruption, public interest ABSTRACT In a country which political system is so-called democracy ( but a la Bosnia and Herzegovina) citizens assigned their sovereignty to the (ir)responsible politicians who through the years and years are gambling with citizens’ trust and their right to lead. Authority is given to get some power- to lead, control, make decisions, etc., but just according to logic, and looking through the glass of everyday man, we can see that authority leads to power, and power enables realizing interest. But what kind of interest?! Certainly from the perspective of sociologists and psychologists human beings are fundamentally motivated by self-interest, but from perspective of politics and economics, and with previously gifted sovereignty representatives shouldn’t be exclusively guided by personal, but public interest. When public interest comes after personal interest, corruption comes to stage. Corruption is a way how to enlarge mistrust to government, how to misbalance efforts of economies in transition (and they are already not stable) and how to interest of millions of people use in a manner to realize your own. It is steering away from good government, benefiting no one. The trust, democracy and ethical code are broken. A lot of factors are influencing on the amount of damages that corruption causes, but it is especially problem for countries in transition that are already struggling with problematic economy. Recent years there are different approaches to this problem, from perspective of politics and economics, and solutions given by economic analysis of this problem. Every economy should be able to find the | 15 �1st International Annual Student Symposium best way to fight against this omnipresent problem, because only participation and fight is guarantee for development. Anti-corruption policies are important tool in building healthy society and system, but in case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is long road on a way to complete successfully European integration. Green Economy in the Global World, Green Economy Implementations in the World and Examples of Turkey Fethullah ATAÇ & Recep Yortanlı Yalova University / Yalova, Turkey ABSTRACT The primary purpose of this article is research of the Green Economy in the Global World, Green Economy Implementations in the World and Examples of Turkey. The importance of green economy is improved by various environmental events day by day. According to this case, we have researched many resources which about the effects of green economy and combined the all information that two categorized as world applications and examples of Turkey. Actually, we have defined that what green economy is, with many different words in order to understandable for everybody because, if we would like to talk the importance of green economy we must know that what it is. It is also important for big companies and political forces. A lot of company knows that the green economy will bring a big profit margin, more employment and less damaged nature. But, only a few big companies which placed in the developed country try to do green economic factors in their work life and corporate culture. The developed countries like U.S.A, France, Germany and less developed countries like Egypt, India and China carry out the green economy in order to improve their economy. For example, in the U.S.A, the political forces has over than $900 billion to use controlling country’s economy but they used the 10% of this money for green economy 16 | � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1412 Title A name given to the resource Corruption as economic and political phenomenon in countries in transition Author Author SLJIVO, Amina Abstract A summary of the resource. In a country which political system is so-called democracy ( but a la Bosnia and Herzegovina) citizens assigned their sovereignty to the (ir)responsible politicians who through the years and years are gambling with citizens’ trust and their right to lead. Authority is given to get some power- to lead, control, make decisions, etc., but just according to logic, and looking through the glass of everyday man, we can see that authority leads to power, and power enables realizing interest. But what kind of interest?! Certainly from the perspective of sociologists and psychologists human beings are fundamentally motivated by self-interest, but from perspective of politics and economics, and with previously gifted sovereignty representatives shouldn’t be exclusively guided by personal, but public interest. When public interest comes after personal interest, corruption comes to stage. Corruption is a way how to enlarge mistrust to government, how to misbalance efforts of economies in transition (and they are already not stable) and how to interest of millions of people use in a manner to realize your own. It is steering away from good government, benefiting no one. The trust, democracy and ethical code are broken. A lot of factors are influencing on the amount of damages that corruption causes, but it is especially problem for countries in transition that are already struggling with problematic economy. Recent years there are different approaches to this problem, from perspective of politics and economics, and solutions given by economic analysis of this problem. Every economy should be able to find the best way to fight against this omnipresent problem, because only participation and fight is guarantee for development. Anti-corruption policies are important tool in building healthy society and system, but in case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is long road on a way to complete successfully European integration. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/a95030a55e4f8d0ab5252f2bf45fe931.docx 2cb598eaa7b514fefb8e5155e2ee344c https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/78f24021ebec4be0d048f2f5dacb5639.pdf 8e8ae2de3a658aaab9751ee2300bbe76 PDF Text Text Cost Efficiency and Risk Analysis in Bosnia and Herzegovina Banking compared to other countries after and during the Economic Crisis Belma Kevro International Burch University Bosnia and Herzegovina belmiic@hotmail.com Ali Goksu International Burch University Bosnia and Herzegovina ali.goksu@ibu.edu.ba Abstract: This research aims to give better insight in efficiency and risk analysis in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The type of struggles the banking sector faces during an economic recession is introduced. Relations between risk and business models are analyzed for periods of financial crisis, which are the 2007-2008 years. Business models are an important part of an organization, it is the way an organizations creates, delivers and captures value. In the banking sector this might not be the case. We will discuss if the business model of a bank has a huge impact on cost efficiency and risk. The primary aim is to provide proof that BM has nonlinear effect on banks with higher risk. Comparison and contrasts between Ziraat Bank in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Ziraat Bank in Turkey is stated in the study. For the purposes of this study, author takes in account statistical information and annual reports of both banks as well as BM of each bank. Financial statements of the recession years help analyze which bank was detected with more struggles during these crisis years and whose business model had effect (if any) on helping overcome these struggles. Comparison of deposits to loans figures is done in several structural aspects. It provides an answer whether "Do business models matter?” The proof that institutions with higher risk exposure have less capital, larger size, greater reliance on shortterm market funding, and aggressive credit growth is interpreted in the study. Using the model regression analysis, which is a statistical process for estimating the relationships among variables shows that the impact of business models is highly non-linear. The level of risk the bank faces is more dependent to loan growth, customer deposits and market funding than to BM. A stronger customer deposit base is more effective in reducing danger for the riskier banks compared to the less risky banks. Keywords: efficiency, risk analysis, economic recession, regression analysis, business models (BM). 127 �127 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2590 Title A name given to the resource Cost Efficiency and Risk Analysis in Bosnia and Herzegovina Banking compared to other countries after and during the Economic Crisis Author Author KEVRO, Belma GOKSU, Ali Abstract A summary of the resource. This research aims to give better insight in efficiency and risk analysis in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The type of struggles the banking sector faces during an economic recession is introduced. Relations between risk and business models are analyzed for periods of financial crisis, which are the 2007-2008 years. Business models are an important part of an organization, it is the way an organizations creates, delivers and captures value. In the banking sector this might not be the case. We will discuss if the business model of a bank has a huge impact on cost efficiency and risk. The primary aim is to provide proof that BM has non-linear effect on banks with higher risk. Comparison and contrasts between Ziraat Bank in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Ziraat Bank in Turkey is stated in the study. For the purposes of this study, author takes in account statistical information and annual reports of both banks as well as BM of each bank. Financial statements of the recession years help analyze which bank was detected with more struggles during these crisis years and whose business model had effect (if any) on helping overcome these struggles. Comparison of deposits to loans figures is done in several structural aspects. It provides an answer whether "Do business models matter?” The proof that institutions with higher risk exposure have less capital, larger size, greater reliance on short-term market funding, and aggressive credit growth is interpreted in the study. Using the model - regression analysis, which is a statistical process for estimating the relationships among variables shows that the impact of business models is highly non-linear. The level of risk the bank faces is more dependent to loan growth, customer deposits and market funding than to BM. A stronger customer deposit base is more effective in reducing danger for the riskier banks compared to the less risky banks. Keywords: efficiency, risk analysis, economic recession, regression analysis, business models (BM).   Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-04 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/89c1fd9b514c27bc48700bb4db9baa01.pdf 864e290cb4374dcf39540acf5cb40a11 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1387 Title A name given to the resource Costs and Benefits of the EU Enlargement: The Impact on the EU and SEE Countries Author Author Elif, Nuroglu Haris, Kurtagić Abstract A summary of the resource. The south-eastern enlargement of the European Union will be the sixth enlargement since the establishment of the European Community in 1957. This research uses the gravity model to analyze the factors that have an influence on trade flows between the EU and South-east European Countries. The Gravity model explains patterns of trade with GDP, geographical distance and several dummy variables. Using the data from 2010, the gravity model analyzes trade flows between 23 countries from both the EU and South-eastern European Countries. Taking into consideration the costs of enlargement, this paper examines the possible effects of enlargement on trade flows, and its impact on the development of SEEC’s. Moreover, it offers a solution for the South-east European Countries which is the possibility to create the Balkan Union. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f30623d9779a3551d818234679066a2c.pdf 1cc95ce1cc3f8ab3a1148a907538c247 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Could burnout be a reason behind airlines accident? An Empirical Study in Turkish Airlines Companies Cengiz Mengenci Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey cengiz.mengenci@yalova.edu.tr Şenay Yürür Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey senyurur@gmail.com Ömür Gündüz Topçu Turkish Airlines Company, İstanbul, Turkey Competitive advantage is highly important factor in all sectors. It would be said that having and sustaining competitive advantage in airlines companies depend on safety of flight and quality of services in flight and on the ground. Pilots and flight attendants, in good mental, psychological and physical health give passengers guaranty of safe flight and also high quality of services. On the other hand, research results show that % 60 to % 80 of aircraft accidents happen due to human factor. Researchers try to figure out where human factor makes mistakes. Stress and fatigue were defined one of the reason behind human mistakes and aircraft accidents. According to literature, Burnout syndrome might cause companies workers to have negative, callous and dehumanized responses to their customer, increase turnover intention, high stress, job dissatisfaction and decrease the quality of services. This syndrome might be the reason that cockpit and cabin crew live and suffer from stress and fatigue, cause for accident and low quality service in airlines companies. In this study aims to figure out burnout relationship with stress and supervisory support and how much burnout differ according to professional position difference in cockpit and the cabin of the aircraft. To collect data, Peeters, Buunk ve Schaufeli’s (1995) supervisory support survey, House and Rizzo-(1972) stress survey and Maslach burnout inventory survey will be used. Surveys will be delivered to Turkish Airlines Companies. Data will be collected from pilot, copilot and flight attendants. To analysis survey data, correlation and regression analysis will be used. According to the hypothesis developed, the relationships between burnout, stress and supervisory support will be analyzed and findings will be reported. This study will contribute to the literature with empirical findings about relationship between burnout, stress and supervisory support especially in Turkish Airlines Companies. Keywords: Burnout, Stress, Supervisory support, Professional Position. 77 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1513 Title A name given to the resource Could burnout be a reason behind airlines accident? An Empirical Study in Turkish Airlines Companies Author Author MENGENECI, Cengiz YURUR, Senay GUNDUZ TOPCU, Omur Abstract A summary of the resource. Competitive advantage is highly important factor in all sectors. It would be said that having and sustaining competitive advantage in airlines companies depend on safety of flight and quality of services in flight and on the ground. Pilots and flight attendants, in good mental, psychological and physical health give passengers guaranty of safe flight and also high quality of services. On the other hand, research results show that % 60 to % 80 of aircraft accidents happen due to human factor. Researchers try to figure out where human factor makes mistakes. Stress and fatigue were defined one of the reason behind human mistakes and aircraft accidents. According to literature, Burnout syndrome might cause companies workers to have negative, callous and dehumanized responses to their customer, increase turnover intention, high stress, job dissatisfaction and decrease the quality of services. This syndrome might be the reason that cockpit and cabin crew live and suffer from stress and fatigue, cause for accident and low quality service in airlines companies. In this study aims to figure out burnout relationship with stress and supervisory support and how much burnout differ according to professional position difference in cockpit and the cabin of the aircraft. To collect data, Peeters, Buunk ve Schaufeli’s (1995) supervisory support survey, House and Rizzo-(1972) stress survey and Maslach burnout inventory survey will be used. Surveys will be delivered to Turkish Airlines Companies. Data will be collected from pilot, copilot and flight attendants. To analysis survey data, correlation and regression analysis will be used. According to the hypothesis developed, the relationships between burnout, stress and supervisory support will be analyzed and findings will be reported. This study will contribute to the literature with empirical findings about relationship between burnout, stress and supervisory support especially in Turkish Airlines Companies. Keywords: Burnout, Stress, Supervisory support, Professional Position. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/9edeeaf430df68abae993679141b43df.pdf 15bb98e5a755a17e23f5656aff2fa2e1 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Erkoyuncu, I., (1995). Fisheries biology and population dynamics. Ondokuz Mayıs University, Faculty of Fisheries, Sinop, Turkey, pp. 265 (in Turkish). Froese, R. (2006). Cubelaw, condition factor and weight-length relationships: history, metaanalysis and recommendations. J.Appl.Ichthyol. 22, 241-253. Gonçalves, J.M.S., Bentes, L., Lino, P.G., Ribeiro, J., & Canaroo, A.V.M., (1997). Weightlength relationships for selected fish species of the small-scale demersal fisheries of the south and south and southwest coast of Portugal. Fish. Res., 30(3), 253-256. Koutrakis, E.T., & Tsikliras, A.C., (2003). Length-weight relationships of fishes from three northern Aegean estuarine systems (Greece). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 19, 258-260. Lalèyè, P.A., (2006). Length-weight and length-length relationships of fshes from the Ouémé River in Bénin(West Africa). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 22, 330-333. Moutopoulos, D.K., & Stergiou, K.I., (2002). Length-weight and length-length relationships of fish species of the Aegean Sea (Greece). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 18(3), 200-203. Pauly, D., (1993). Fishbyte section editorial. Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly, 16, pp. 26. Petrakis, G., & Stergiou, K.I., (1995). Weight-length relationships for 33 fish species in Greek waters. Fish. Res. 21, 465-469. Wootton, R.J., (1990) Ecology of teleost fishes. Chapman and Hall, London. Could government legalize illegal settlement by improving their energy efficiency? Janjusevic Jelena, Begovic Radojevic Milica, UNDP, Podgorica; Montenegro Abstract In recent months we are faced with serious budget problems in Montenegro, the solution of which, among other things is seen in reducing the number of employees in state administration. On the other hand, the costs of living are significantly above the disposable budget of households. Particular problem is the high cost of electricity, which recently 132 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo resulted in the street protests of discontented citizens. On one hand we have a government that alerts the lack of electricity, and on the other hand we have citizens that may hardly cover these costs. In addition, Montenegro is dealing with a double-challenge of inefficient space use (country features over 100,000 illegal homes, if distributed evenly implying that every other family lives in an illegal home) and inefficient energy use (Montenegro needs on average 8.5 times more energy per unit produced than an average EU country). 1.How to solve a problem and please both sides? Is that feasible at all? UNDP office in Montenegro came up with the idea to link solving the big problems in Montenegro, such as the problem of illegal construction, with increasing the level of energy efficiency in households, businesses and other facilities. Namely, UNDP proposes an integrated policy solution to the double-challenge in providing energy efficiency measures to incentivize households to legalize their homes. The idea and research that was recently conducted show how the legalization of illegal buildings by the introduction of mandatory energy efficiency measures in them, may at the same time result in the increase of revenue to the central and local budgets, reduction of negative impact on the environment, increase of employment, engagement of the economy, reduction of electricity consumption and thereby to reduce the need to import electricity, and ultimately to contribute to the welfare of the population. Our research (energy audits) conducted on 30 illegal houses in three pilot municipalities showed that significant savings in energy consumption could be realized (up to 60%). Based on these results, we propose an approach to formalizing informal settlements in Montenegro through implementing an energy efficiency incentive system for the households. The scheme is broken down into 2 steps: (1) a household receives a loan to improve energy efficiency. On average for a 100m2 household, €3,800 loan (with 4.5% interest rate) results in 59% of energy savings or €630 per year at the current energy prices; (2) a household enters into a contractual agreement with the Government/municipality to use the savings from energy efficiency to pay off the low-interest loan it received for the retrofit and the formalization cost. The benefit for the household is dual- a title to the house and improved energy efficiency/resulting financial savings. The benefit for the municipality/Government is the steady supply of funding for the property tax. The benefit for the private sector is the increase in demand for retrofits and upgrading of the infrastructure that services informal settlements. Keywords: energy efficiency, sustainable development, illegal construction, energy audits, retrofitting 133 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.INTRODUCTION The world is experiencing three inter-related crises at the moment. One regards the rising trend of resource prices. The resource price index in the 20th century fell by 50% even though the population quadrupled, economic output rose 4 times, and demand for fossil fuels and water increased by 16 and 9 percent respectively. The first decade of 21st century reversed this trend, and relative to the beginning of 20th century in 2010 the index rose by 147%1. This is a result of a combination of factors: rising demand and population, decreasing sources of supply, volatility of supply (most fossil fuel deposits are located in conflict prone locations such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela). If we continue on this path, by 2050 we would need three times more resources and this is simply no longer an option, which brings us to the second crises. This crisis regards the rising inequality globally within countries. During the last several decades, millions of people around the world have been lifted out of poverty. In Central and Eastern Europe, some 90 million people or 18% of its population moved out of poverty since 1999. Despite this, 30% of the region’s population is still considered poor or vulnerable, with the number rising by 5 million for each 1% of decline in GDP2. The recent ILO report echoes this in noting that the ‘society is becoming increasingly anxious about the lack of decent jobs. The findings show that Social Unrest Index in 2011 rose in 57 out of 106 countries, as more people were pushed out of labor market, predominantly impacting youth and women. So what does this mean for societies across the world? The recent research shows that more unequal societies feature far more social problems including high rates of suicide, obesity, teenage pregnancy, imprisonment, and low levels of literacy, trust, life expectancy3. In short, the economic growth does not yield human development returns in those high developed countries that features high levels of inequality and that subsequently invest the bulk of their public resources into prisons, policy, and defence and health services to deal with the growing amount of social problems. Finally and linked with the other two crises, the world is at a tipping point in regard to the loss of vital ecosystem services and extreme events- both connected to the changing climate. Some 60% of ecosystem services that underpin our economies and life on earth have been degraded, some beyond the point of return. Recently published research in the Journal of Nature that for the first time compared effects of biodiversity loss to other human-caused environmental changes analyzed 12 peer-reviewed articles and concluded that reduced biodiversity affects ecosystems at levels comparable to those of pollution and global 1 McKinsey’s ‘Resource Revolution’ The report last accessed on May 4th 2012. http://www.mckinsey.com/Features/Resource_revolution 2 This World Bank study quoted in ‘The Economic and Financial Crisis in CEE and CIS: Gender Perspectives and Policy Choices’ last accessed on May 4th 2012 at: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_598a.pdf 3 Richard Wilkinson, Kate Pickett ‘The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Society Almost Always Do Better’ Allen Lane, 2009 134 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo warming4. In layman terms, this means that environment’s ability to provide clean water, food and stable climate is seriously undermining the quality of life and human development globally. In terms of disasters, in November last year IPCC published first scientific proof that the changing climate results in an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events5. Our region experienced some $70 billion disaster-related losses during the last two decades6. The three crises are related, mutually reinforcing one another and creating a vicious cycle that impacts all segments of sustainable human development- economic competitiveness, social inclusion and environment. Any viable solution must match the complexity of the crises, addressing them in an integrated manner that will unleash economic growth and job creation, while at the same time conserving the biodiversity and maintaining the balanced environment. This paper will present one such integrated solution that aims to resolve the multi-dimensional development challenge of informal housing (low economic empowerment, rising pressure on environment, high exposure to extreme events, inefficient resource use, low quality of life). It will demonstrate how UNDP plans to utilize main principles of green economy to provide economic empowerment to the citizens in Montenegro. 3.What is a Green Economy? UNEP defines a green economy as one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive. In a green economy, growth in income and employment should be driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions and pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. These investments need to be catalyzed and supported by targeted public expenditure, policy reforms and regulation changes.7 The development path should maintain, enhance and, where necessary, rebuild natural capital as a critical economic asset and as a source of public benefits, especially for poor people whose livelihoods and security depend on nature. 4 http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/123462-biodiversity-loss-is-as-damaging-as-climatechange-and-pollution.html 5 The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, PDF presentation last accessed on May 4th 2012 http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_slide_deck.pdf 6 From Transition to Transformation: Sustainable and Inclusive Development in Europe and Central Asia, report last accessed on May 4th 2012 at http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/publications/oes/RIO_20_Web_Interactif.pdf 7 UNEP, Towards a Green Economy, Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication, 2011 135 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo It is very important to understand that the concept of a “green economy” does not replace sustainable development. However, there is a growing recognition that achieving sustainability rests almost entirely on getting the economy right. Perhaps the most widespread myth is that there is an inescapable trade-off between environmental sustainability and economic progress. There is now substantial evidence that the “greening” of economies neither inhibits wealth creation nor employment opportunities, and that there are many green sectors which show significant opportunities for investment and related growth in wealth and jobs. Also, many theorists and practitioners believe that green economy is a luxury only wealthy countries can afford, or worse, a developed-world imposition to restrain development and perpetuate poverty in developing countries. Contrary to this perception, there are numbered examples of greening transitions taking place in various sectors in the developing world, which deserve to be emulated and replicated elsewhere. The last two years have seen the idea of a “green economy” float out of its specialist moorings in environmental economics and into the mainstream of policy discourse. It is found increasingly in the words of heads of state and finance ministers, in the text of G20 communiqués, and discussed in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication. Over the last quarter of a century, the world economy has quadrupled, benefiting hundreds of millions of people. In contrast, however, 60% of the world’s major ecosystem goods and services that underpin livelihoods have been degraded or used unsustainably. Indeed, this is because the economic growth of recent decades has been accomplished mainly through drawing down natural resources, without allowing stocks to generate, and through allowing widespread ecosystem degradation and loss. Meanwhile, for the first time in history, more than half of the world population lives in urban areas. Cities now account for 75% of energy consumption and 75% of carbon emissions. Rising and related problems of congestion, pollution, and poorly provisioned services affect the productivity and health of all, but fall particularly hard on the urban poor. With approximately 50% of the global population now living in emerging economies that are rapidly urbanizing and will experience rising income and purchasing power over the next years – and a tremendous expansion in urban infrastructure – the need for smart city planning is paramount. 4.Energy efficiency People have always used energy to do work for them. Thousands of years ago, early humans burned wood to provide light, heat their living spaces, and cook their food. Later, people used 136 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the wind to move their boats from place to place. A hundred years ago, people began using falling water to make electricity. Today, people use more energy than ever from a variety of sources for a multitude of tasks and our lives are undoubtedly better for it. Our homes are comfortable and full of useful and entertaining electrical devices. We communicate instantaneously in many ways. We live longer, healthier lives. We travel the world, or at least see it on television and the internet. In 1973, when Americans faced their first oil price shock, people didn’t know how the country would react. How would Americans adjust to skyrocketing energy prices? How would manufacturers and industries respond? We didn’t know the answers. Now we know that Americans tend to use less energy when energy when energy prices are high. We have the statistics to prove it. When energy prices increased sharply in the early 1970s, energy use dropped, creating a gap between actual energy use and how much the experts had thought Americans would be using. The same thing happened when energy prices shot up again in 1979, 1980, and 2008—people used less energy. When prices started to drop, energy use began to increase. In 2009, the United States used 27 percent more energy than it did in the 1970s. That might sound like a lot, but the population increased by over 43 percent and the nation’s gross domestic product (the total value of all the goods and services produced by a nation in one year) was 2.6 times that of the 1970s. If every person in the United States today consumed energy at the rate we did in the 1970s, we would be using much more energy than we are - perhaps as much as double the amount. Energy efficiency technologies have made a huge impact on overall consumption since the energy crisis of 1973. Mankind is facing one of the greatest challenges in its history: developing in order to “meet the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs”8. Increasing demands for natural resources, weakening of ecosystems, global warming and soaring population growth are just a few of the global issues confronting us. Since the end of the 1960s there have been more and more global initiatives to reduce social and ecological imbalances. The movement is now speeding up: those involved are becoming aware of the role they can play within their sphere of influence and of the interdependence between the various aspects of sustainable development. Improving energy efficiency is mostly connected with buildings, both residential and business, changes and the main challenge now is to design, build and renovate buildings to 8 Our Common Future, Brundtland Report, 1987 137 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo reduce their environmental impact and create areas that are healthy and comfortable for the occupants. Throughout their life cycle, buildings consume natural resources, generate waste and emit large amounts of CO2, contributing significantly to global warming. A large proportion of the world's population, particularly in the developed countries, spends 90% of its time indoors (source: OECD). In this context, questions of hygiene standards inside buildings and the comfort of occupants are also central issues in the debate. At building level, energy efficiency covers all the methods used to reduce the energy used for a given service (heating, lighting, operating machines, etc.). Two types of energy efficiency are generally taken into consideration: Energy efficiency associated with the framework This corresponds to the structural properties of the building that will reduce energy requirements (and in particular heating and lighting). This category includes: optimized insulation, double glazing, treatment of heat bridges, management of openings (doors and windows) and coverings (blinds and shutters). Energy efficiency from high-performance equipment and as a result of the management of this equipment. High-performance equipment is that providing the best efficiency. Equipment management is used to adapt the level and duration of the provision of energy to requirements. It corresponds to the installation of products and systems that will regulate and automate energy consumption in the building in order to avoid unnecessary consumption. Energy efficiency retrofits provide an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, generate economic activity, save billions in energy costs, and ensure the long-term viability of affordable housing. However, there is insufficient data on how much energy these upgrades actually save, and therefore little data on what the return on investment would be for lenders. Without this data, it is very difficult to secure upfront capital investments in retrofits, inhibiting this sector’s capacity to scale. 5.Montenegro and legalization problem In the past decade, Montenegro has witnessed rapid urbanization fuelled by foreign direct investment on the Adriatic coast and in mountain resorts. This growth, which has significantly increased the GDP of the country for several years has, in parallel, caused negative effects such as urban sprawl in previously natural landscapes along the coast and around the capital Podgorica, resulting in large numbers of informally built constructions (that is without a construction permit), both commercial and residential, that have very low energy efficiency characteristics, resulting in an overall increase in CO2 emissions due to rising energy demand in buildings. According to one estimate, there are approximately 100,000 such informal constructions, though there are no clear statistics. Approximately 62% of the population of Montenegro lives in urban areas and the quality of their life is under pressure from urban development problems. Uncontrolled urbanization, especially in the central area (around 138 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Podgorica and other cities) and the coastal areas (seaside tourist development), is having negative impacts, such as overcrowded settlements and inaccessibility to infrastructure. Informal constructions in Montenegro generally fall under three broad categories: A building constructed on a parcel of land that legally belongs to the owner. The owner obtained the necessary ‘construction permit’ but did not secure the ‘use permit’ from the municipal authorities, which is required by law to ensure that the housing unit was built according to specifications approved in the ‘construction permit’. Owners are required to pay specified municipal fees to obtain the ‘use permit’. A building constructed on own land by the owner of the land, but without both the ‘construction permit’ and the ‘use permit’. A building constructed on state or municipal land without the express consent of the owner and without the necessary ‘construction or ‘use permit’. Nearly all Montenegrin households (>99%) are connected to the electricity grid and metered. Based on the latest available data, average monthly electricity consumption in Montenegro in 2001 was 367 kWh per household. This makes that average monthly bill for electricity per household amounts cca 100 euro. According to the estimation of Ministry of Economy of Montenegro 80% of the electricity in the household is used for the heating. Most homes are heated through an electric radiator system, an electric thermal accumulator or an individual heating system. Wood is one of the most popular heating sources in individual houses in Montenegro, especially in the North, but almost absent in the South and in apartment buildings. Assuming that the 100,000 informal constructions have the same average energy consumption profile as regular houses (a highly conservative assumption given their generally sub-standard workmanship and hence low EE), the informal housing sector is estimated to account for over one-quarter of Montenegro’s residential energy consumption and 7% of the country’s energybased GHG emissions. The irregular sector is also characterised by relatively high energy poverty: systematic data are scarce but some observations suggest that up to 40% of people living in the irregular housing sector do not have access to sufficient energy services to ensure a healthy lifestyle for themselves and their families. Buildings constructed without building permits in most cases have not been subject to the process of verification of application of standards, neither in the course of design development nor during performance of works, particularly from the aspect of seismic risk. Existence of a large number of informal buildings, primarily residential facilities, highlights the urgent need for organized approach to resolving the problem of regularization of such buildings and verifying achieved level of their static and seismic protection. 139 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Government of Montenegro has adopted a National Formalisation Program (NFP) and Action Plan to regularize the vast stock of informal individual housing. The new Regularization Law will mandate all owners of illegal houses to undergo mandatory building registration process; it will impose penalties (up to building demolition) for those property owners who fail to comply with the requirements. The Law and bylaws will also stipulate the administrative procedures and financial costs associated with legalization. 6.UNDP approach to the legalization problem National Formalization Program, will result in new policies, regulation and significant investment to transform illegal housing stock into regularized and law-compliant buildings. However, if implemented as designed, NFP will not bring in energy efficiency improvements in individual houses, which are now characterized by poor thermal performance, high energy use and offer major opportunities for cost-effective GHG emission reduction. In order to address this problem, UNDP design the National Formalization Program in such manner that it would incorporate mandatory requirements and financial support package for energy efficiency improvements as outlined in the following section. The formalisation of Montenegro’s large informal buildings sector represents a unique opportunity to not only insert EE considerations into regulation of this building stock (for the first time ever), but also to integrate informal neighbourhoods and settlements into municipal governments’ spatial planning in order to address urban-system GHG mitigation opportunities in a ‘joined up’ manner. 7.UNDP research in energy efficiency of the illegal houses In the beginning of 2011 Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism of Montenegro and UNDP agreed on join implementation of three new pilot projects which deal with problem of transformation of informal settlements to formal. This is related to three municipalities: Zabljak, Bijelo Polje and Bar. Projects activities resulted in: identifying alternative solutions for formalization of informal settlements giving initial study on the energy efficiency characteristics of the informal building sector in Montenegro and an assessment of the economic mitigation potential of the sector, with particular focus on the Government’s Formalization Programme and how the Programme can be harnessed to maximize mitigation outcomes – in terms of the buildings themselves and also how they can be best integrated into broader urban planning. proposing different economical scenarios for formalization process 140 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo encouraging housing opportunity for people of low and moderate income by creative, flexible, and innovative approach to resolving this issue Purpose of the energy audits was to determine a baseline for consumption and potential savings giving the most basic renovation/retrofit measures. Every energy audit consisted of basic information about the existing object, its current use, dimensions, number of inhabitants, heating periods during the day and the whole year, local climate characteristics etc. Data on average yearly consumption of electricity and consumption of water was collected from Public Utility Companies. This was provided with assistance of municipal officials9. Figure 1: The appearance of used software Energy audit team used the following measuring equipment during the inspection of the buildings :Thermal Imager-3 Testo880 PROSet; Data loggers for measuring temperature and humidity Testo 175 and Testo 635-2 Luksmetar. 9 Calculation of building energy performance was performed using: ENSI (Energy Savings International AS) "ENSI EAB CG 8.1". The algorithm for calculation in the current version of the Key Number software relies mainly on the EN ISO 13790:2004 standard. Economic calculation is done in the "ENSI Profitability Software - Version 7.0". 141 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 2: Results of thermal camera imaging (one of the audited buildings in Bijelo Polje) After revision of all provided audits, a general conclusion regarding possibilities for EE retrofitting in informal settlements is that, on average, with €3,800 investment in retrofits the annual savings are €700 (payoff in less than 6 years), and this is in accordance with current energy prices (€ 0.7/kWh as opposed to € 0.17 kWh which is average within liberalized energy market in Europe). More detailed average results are, as follows: Average building (heated) area Average electricity bill [€/god] (for 2009/2010/2011) Baseline (kWh/m2 year) Baseline (kWh/year) After EE retrofit measures (kWh/m2year) After EE retrofit measures (kWh/year) Calculated savings (kWh/m2year) Lowering of CO2 emission (tons/year) 142 116.80 1240.32 468.81 52771.05 169.74 20122.85 303.49 0.82 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Assessment of the investment in EE retrofit measures 4458.20 [€] Net savings [€/year] Return on investment [year] 736.15 5.60 Savings in delivered energy / wooden logs 32945.80 (kWh/ year) Savings in delivered energy / electrical energy (kWh/ year) 574.65 The most cost effective and most often basic EE measures that have been suggested are: appropriate isolation of external walls replacement of windows/doors isolation of roofs EE audits also suggested implementation of additional measures, such as installation of central heating, which will not significantly improve EE performance, but will in general raise a living comfort for the inhabitants. These measures are relatively expensive, and with longer return on investment, but they are also included in narrative part of audits, in order to be considered by the owners as possibility for additional improvement of living conditions. General conclusion is that energy efficiency measures can be used as a tool for encouraging owners of the informal object to apply for legalization. Calculation showed that that each household that apply for formalization will have almost the same cost as it pay regularly for electricity today, but now this cost covers electricity bill, but also retrofitting and formalization. This means that with the same amount of financial resources, they will have legal object, energy efficient and safer house. Energy efficiency measures can be used as a tool for encouraging owners of the informal object to apply for legalization. The main idea is to increase number of applicants, and on the other side to provide solution that would be in line with principles of sustainable development and status of Montenegro as ecological state. Below is explained one of possible the scenarios for formalization using energy efficiency measures as incentive, for average residential building of 100m2. 143 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo EE measure as incentives – calculation: (Example – residential house of 100m2, with average monthly energy bill – 100 euros.) Size of Houshold Cost for Saving energy per month (euro) Formalization (50e per m2) 100 90 5000 € 59% cost Retrofitting cost(interest rate 4.5% on investment 3800eur) 5760 Scenario after retrofitting (costs) Electricity bill Monthly Monthly Total (euro) formalization retrofit cost, 15 cost, 20 yr yr period period Monthly 36.9 20.9 32 89.9 The idea is to use possibility of getting soft loan with no or very low interest rate, with 20 years period for repayment that will be used for retrofitting the object. The main condition for loan is IF household apply for formalization process. This calculation shows that each household that apply for formalization will have almost the same cost as it pays regularly for electricity today, but now this cost covers electricity bill, but also retrofitting and formalization. This means that with same amount of financial resources, they will have legal object, energy efficient and safer house. Revenue from formalization to government Monthly Yearly After 20 years 2,083,333.33€ 25,000,000€ 500,000,000€ Through identifying alternative solutions for formalization of informal settlements and integration of sustainable development principles into planning process, this project will contribute to establishment of the link between economic growth, poverty reduction and environmental sustainability. 144 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 8. CONCLUSION The paper demonstrates potentials for using energy efficiency as an incentive for formalization of illegal households. Building on the wealth of research on decision making and behavioral economics, the solution features a revenue-neutral option that addresses dual challenges from the consumers’ perspectives (households: inefficient use of energy and illegal house) and dual challenge from the providers’ perspective (Government: low real estate tax collection and low investment in infrastructure). This solution has never been tested before. It will require a multidimensional approach to systemic level change (new regulation and policy development), institutional level change (establishing novel links between the municipal and national level, designing novel processes for financial management) and individual level (capacity building, behavioral change). On the positive note, regardless of its success, this proposal is likely to yield important lessons on the potential for manipulating incentives for green economy. Implications for future research include consideration of incentives related to clean energy production (e.g. solar and wind power) and sustainable urban development (e.g. municipality’s capacity to manage incoming funding for a greener and sustainable urbanization). LITERATURE „More Urban—Less Poor, Fighting poverty in an urban world“, Göran Tannerfeldt and Per Ljung, August 2006 „Trade and Development Report, UNCTAD, 2011, “Trends and Progress in Housing reforms in South Eastern Europe, Sasha Tsenkova, CEB, October 2005 „Towards a Green Economy, Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication“, UNEP, 2011 “Energy Efficiency: Engine of Economic Growth”, Jamie Howland & Derek Murrow, Lisa Petraglia & Tyler Comings, Economic Development Research Group, Inc, October 2009 “Our Common Future”, Brundtland Report, 1987 “Why More Equal Society Almost Always do Better’ Richard Wilkinson, Kate Pickett ‘The Spirit Level: Allen Lane, 2009 145 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo “From Transition to Transformation: Sustainable and Inclusive Development in Europe and Central Asia”, report, 2011 Web: http://www.mckinsey.com/Features/Resource_revolution http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/123462-biodiversity-loss-is-as-damaging-asclimate-change-and-pollution.html http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_598a.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_slide_deck.pdf http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/publications/oes/RIO_20_Web_Interactif.pdf www.undp.org.me www.mek.gov.me www.energetska-efikasnost.me Situation Of The Dikili Gulf Fishes For Sustainable Fisheries Mehmet İkiz1, Hatice Koç Torcu 2, Fatih Güleç1 1- Ege Üniversitesi, Su Ürünleri Fakültesi, 35080 İzmir 2- Balikesir University, Faculty of Science and Arts, Balikesir-Turkey E-mails: mikiz@mynet.com, htorcukoc@hotmail.com, mc305@live.com Abstract Conservation fish stocks in the aquatic ecosystem is important for sustainable fish production. Continuation of the fish species generations in a habitat is affected by environmental conditions and hunting pressure. For the sustainability of the reproductive abilities of fishes, it is essential to know interactions with the the other species that live in habitat. In this way the production models, that encourage the fish to grow in its natural habitat, can be developed. In this study, the fish species that live in Dikili Bay of Izmir City and their economic features were investigated. Fish species that live in Dikili Bay were examined systematically and biologically; also identification keys of the species were formed. Morphometric and meristic characters of obtained species were identified. In the examination, 70 species belonging to 39 families were identified. 9 species of these belong to chondrichythyes and 61 to osteichtyes. 31 of these species are economically important species and are hunted. 2 of them (Sea bream and sea bass) are farmed in Turkey, also. As a result of inadequate protection measures and mindless hunting, it was observed 31 economically important and identified species, that live 146 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1238 Title A name given to the resource Could government legalize illegal settlement by improving their energy efficiency? Author Author Janjusevic, Jelena Abstract A summary of the resource. In recent months we are faced with serious budget problems in Montenegro, the solution of which, among other things is seen in reducing the number of employees in state administration. On the other hand, the costs of living are significantly above the disposable budget of households. Particular problem is the high cost of electricity, which recently resulted in the street protests of discontented citizens. On one hand we have a government that alerts the lack of electricity, and on the other hand we have citizens that may hardly cover these costs. In addition, Montenegro is dealing with a double-challenge of inefficient space use (country features over 100,000 illegal homes, if distributed evenly implying that every other family lives in an illegal home) and inefficient energy use (Montenegro needs on average 8.5 times more energy per unit produced than an average EU country). Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General) Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3442 Title A name given to the resource COURSE BOOK - ENEMY OR ALLY OF THE MODERN TEACHER? Author Author Mihulja, Gordana Abstract A summary of the resource. Course book has always been considered the best teaching material used in classroom. But, with time and with advanced development of pedagogical and methodological conscience of students, teaching and classroom discourse, course book just wasn't enough for student to achieve optimal conditions for efficient second language acquisition. Soon a great dissension appeared between teaching methods of the teacher and the course book itself; between teacher and student in general. Those two didn't have the same goals or the same picture of who each of them was and what was their role in the second language acquisition process. In this paper we will present some advantages and disadvantages of a set of course books for L2; in particular those of Italian that are used in Croatian schools or constructed by Croatian teachers and experts. Also we will present results of a content analysis of those books done with a questionnaire that has been adapted particularly for this research. We made the hypothesis that the problem lies somewhere in the content of the course book. Our goal is to find out which aspects of course book design, especially regarding its contents, should be changed in order to reduce that dissension between teachers and students; to make the course book better and more efficient in the second language acquisition process. This paper and the results presented inside can be considered a new direction in course book design policy; new perspective and the new way to harmonize book contents with the school curriculum premises. Thus the quality of course books that our children use will be increased significantly and the great leap in students' educational success will be noticed. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e2046b94b514edc86ac853134ab71563.pdf aec938016432cbe78875e9325ef239fe PDF Text Text Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS Johansen, S. (1995) ikelihood Basic Inference in ointegration Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, New York. Kutlar, A. and M. Şimşek (2001) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıklarının Dış Ticaret Açıklarına Etkileri, Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: 1984–2000, okuz ylül Üniversitesi, İİB ergisi, 16 (1), 1–13. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms 1(*) Merza, E., Alawin, M. and Bashayreh, A. (2012) The Relationship Between Current Account and Government Budget Balance: The Case of Kuwait, International Journal of Humanities and ocial cience, 2(7), 168-177. Aygul ANAVATAN Akdeniz University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, 07058, Antalya, Turkey aygulanavatan@akdeniz.edu.tr, Peker, O. (2009) Türkiye’deki Cari Açık Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, Kocaeli Üniversitesi osyal Bilimler nstitüsü ergisi, 17(1), 164-174. Murat KARAOZ Puah, C., Lau, E. and Tan, K. L. (2006) Budget-Current Account Deficits Nexus in Malaysia, Munich Personal eP c Archieves, 37677(27), 1-27. Utkulu U. (2003) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları ve Dış Ticaret Açıkları Gerçekten İkiz mi? Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Bulguları”, . .Ü. İİB ergisi, 1(18), 45–61. Sever, E. And M. Demir (2007) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı ile Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi ie İncelenmesi, skişehir smangazi Üniversitesi İİB ergisi, 2(1), 47-63. Vamvoukas, G. (1999) The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Greece, Applied conomics, 31, 1093-1100. Yücel F. and Ata, A. Y (2003) Eş-Bütünleşme ve Nedensellik Testleri Altında İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması, Çukurova Üniversitesi osyal Bilimler nstitüsü ergisi, 12(12). Zengin, A. (2000) İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi (Türkiye Uygulaması), Gazi Üniversitesi konomik aklaşım ergisi, 11(39), 37–67. Akdeniz University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, 07058, Antalya, Turkey, mkaraoz@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstr ct The most widely used model in multivariate analysis of survival data is proportional hazards model proposed by ox. While it is easy to get and interpret the results of the model, the basic assumption of proportional hazards model is that independent variables assumed to remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. ne of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable and a parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using ox regression considering time-varying variables. The firm data comes from Business evelopment enters (İŞG M) which is a prominent business incubation center operating in urkey. KEYWO D urvival Analysis, ox egression Model, Proportional Hazard Assumption, ew irms A I LE HI O Y ubmitted:22 Jun 2012 esubmitted:03 January 2013 Accepted:25 March 2013 Jel ode: 41, 24, M13 1 This research paper has been an extension to the findings of the scientific research project “The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, 109K139, which has been funded with grant from TÜBİTAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey). We also acknowledge the administrative support to the project from Turkish Small and Medium Entreprises Development Organisation (KOSGEB). (*) Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 53 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia because the event of interest death, disease or some other event of interest usually is death,usually disease isincidence, or someincidence, other negative individual negative individual experience (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). experience (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). Introduction Survival analysis deals with the probability of occurrence of a given event at a set of particular points in a time interval (Cox and Oakes, 1984; Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005). In the small business and entrepreneurship literature, survival analysis has been used to track the start-ups over the years. The typical survival anaylsis may include the reports of hazard rates, ratios and survival curves while relating a likely set of independent variables to a specific event. A survival curve of a cohort of newly established firms reports what percentage of the cohort continue to survive since its inception over time, indicating whether some of the firms are failed over the years (Karaöz and Albeni, 2011). In many survival studies, it has been examined whether some variables or risk factors are effective on survival or not. Cox proportional hazards (PH) model is the most preferred model in order to investigate the effect of variables on survival time. The key assumption of Cox model is that hazard rate related to different levels of the factors is constant throughout the follow-up period (Başar, 2006). Violation of the PH assumption requires additional measures for unbiased results of Cox survival regression. In this paper, Cox regression has been applied to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. Violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. When survival time (�) is defined as a random variable with cumulative distribution function �(�) = ��(�� � ��) and probability density function �(�) = � �(�)⁄� (�), survival function �(�) is explained by Equation (2.1) (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007); �(�) = �(� � �) = 1 � �(�) Survival function �(�) gives the probability that the random variable � exceeds the specified time � (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). All survival functions have the characteristics that i) they are nonincreasing; that is, they head downward as � increases, ii) at time � = 0, �(�) = �(0) = 1; that is, at the start of the study, since no one has gotten the event yet, the probability of surviving past time 0 is one, iii) at time � = ∞, �(�) = �(∞) = 0; that is, theoretically, if the study period increased without limit, eventually nobody would survive, so the survival curve must eventually fall to zero (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). The hazard function �(�), with its complement of survival function �(�), is given by Equation (2.2), where �� denotes a small interval of time (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); ℎ(�) = lim���� Survival Analysis Survival analysis is a collection of statistical procedures for data analysis for which the outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs (Harrell, 2001). This event may be failure, and for this reason, the analysis of such data is often referred to as survival analysis (Bellera et al., 2010). The main objectives of the survival analysis are i) to estimate and interpret survival characteristics: Kaplan-Meier plots, median estimation and confidence intervals (CI), ii) to compare survival in different groups: Log-rank test, iii) to assess the relationship of explanatory variables to survival time: Cox regression model (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007). In a survival analysis, it is usually referred to the time variable as survival time, because it gives the time that an individual has “survived” over some followup period (Geiss et al., 2009). It is also typically referred to the event as a failure, because the (2.1) �(��������|���) (2.2) �� The hazard function ℎ(�) gives the instantaneous potential per unit time for the event to occur, given that the individual has survived up to time � (Tabatabai et al., 2007). In contrast to the survival function, which focuses on not failing, the hazard function focuses on failing, that is, on the event occurring. Thus, in some sense, the hazard function can be considered as giving the opposite side of the information given by the survival function (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). The Cox Proportional Hazards Model The Cox Proportional Hazards Model The Cox PH model is usually written in terms of the hazard model formula shown at Equation This model gives expression the hazard time � The Cox PH model(2.3). is usually written in an terms of the for hazard modelatformula shown at Equation (2.3). This model gives an expression for the hazard at time t 2 54 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 55 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia for an individual with a given specification of a set of explanatory variables denoted by �. That is, � represents a collection of predictor variables that is being modeled to predict an individual’s hazard (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); � ℎ(�, �) = ℎ� (�)� ∑��� �� �� (2.3) The Cox model formula says that the hazard at time � is the product of two quantities. The first of these, ℎ� (�), is called the baseline hazard function. The second quantity is the exponential expression � to the linear sum of �� �� , where the sum is over the � explanatory � variables (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In general, a hazard ratio (��) is defined as the hazard for one individual divided by the hazard for a different individual. The two individuals being compared can be distinguished by their values for the set of predictors, that is, the X’s. Hazard ratio is shown by the following formula, where �∗ denotes the set of predictors for one individual, and � denotes the set of predictors for the other individual (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); � * � � * � = h�t,X � = h0 (t) ��p�∑ βi Xi � = ��p�∑p β�i �X i* -Xi �� HR i=1 � � (t) � (t,X) h h0 ��p�∑ βi X i � (2.4) �∗ = ���∗ , ��∗ , � , ��∗ ��and�� = ��� , �� , � , �� � denote the set of �’s for two individuals. Once the model is fitted and the values for �∗ and � are specified, the value of the exponential expression for the estimated hazard ratio is a constant, which does not depend on time. If we denote this constant by ��̂, then hazard ratio can be written as shown below (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); A key reason for the popularity of the Cox model is that, even though the baseline hazard is not specified, reasonably good estimates of regression coefficients, hazard ratios of interest, and adjusted survival curves can be obtained for a wide variety of data situations. Another way of saying this is that the Cox PH model is a “robust” model, so that the results from using the Cox model will closely approximate the results for the correct parametric model (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In addition to the general “robustness” of the Cox model, the specific form of the model is attractive for several reasons (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). First, the � exponential part � ∑��� �� �� of hazard model ensures that the fitted model will always give estimated hazards that are non-negative. Another tempting property of the Cox model is that, even though the baseline hazard part of the model is unspecified, it is still possible to estimate the �’s in the exponential part of the model. Lastly, it is preferred over the logistic model when survival time information is available and there is censoring. That is, the Cox model uses more information (the survival times) than the logistic model, which considers a (0,1) outcome and ignores survival times and censoring. Evaluating the Proportional Hazards Assumption For variables not satisfying the non-proportionality assumption, the power of the � �� = ��p�∑��� ��� (��∗ � �� )� (2.5) Evaluating thetests Proportional Hazards corresponding is reduced, that is, it isAssumption less likely to conclude for a significant If hazard ratio is greater than 1, the group which has the distinction of 1 category of the variable will higher significantly likely to be exposed to interest event by comparison 0 category of that variable. If the hazard ratio is equal to 1, chance of closing the two groups are equal; if it is between 0 and 1, the group receiving 0 category value has a lower closing probability by comparison 1 category. 3 56 The basic assumptions of the Cox regression model can be explained as follows (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007); i) the effects of independent variables on the hazard function are loglinear. ii) The relationship between loglineer function of independent variables and the hazard function is multiplicative. iii) In addition to these two assumption, observations should independent of each other and hazard ratio should remains unchanged with respect to time, ie., is constant. This assumption related to hazard ratio is known as proportional hazard assumption. Journal of Economic and Social Studies effect when there is actually one. If the hazard ratio is increasing over time, the For variables not satisfying the non-proportionality power of the estimated coefficient assuming PH is overestimatingassumption, at first and the underestimating later on. For those of that the model constant hazard ratio, the power corresponding tests variables is reduced, is, it iswith less alikely to conclude for a significant of testswhen is also reduced as a consequence an inferior of the model et effect there is actually one. If the of hazard ratio isfitincreasing over(Bellera time, the al., 2010).coefficient assuming PH is overestimating at first and underestimating estimated later on. For those variables of the model with a constant hazard ratio, the power of tests is also reduced as a consequence of an inferior fit of the model (Bellera et al., 2010). 4 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 57 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia There are three general approaches to assess the PH assumption: 1) Graphical Approaches; Kaplan-Meier and log-log plots, observed versus expected plots, 2) Goodness of fit (GOF) test, 3) Statistical Methods; schoenfeld residuals, the logThere are three general approaches to assess the PH assumption: 1) Graphical rank test and time-dependent covariates. Approaches; Kaplan-Meier and log-log plots, observed versus expected plots, 2) Goodness of fit (GOF) test, 3) Statistical Methods; schoenfeld residuals, the logrank test and time-dependent covariates. Extension theCox Cox Proportional Hazards Model Extension ofofthe Proportional Hazards Model An important feature of this formula, which concerns the PH assumption, is that the baseline hazard is a function of �, but does not involve the �’s. The �’s in the formula are called time-independent �’s (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). It is possible, nevertheless, to consider �’s which do involve �. Such �’s are called time-dependent variables. If time-dependent variables are considered, the Cox model form may still be used, but such a model no longer satisfies the PH assumption, and is called the extended Cox model (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In the case of being time-dependent explanatory variables, Cox regression model expands to a model which contains time-independent variables and some functions of the time the product with these variables. Independent variables are, where �� � �� � � � ��� time-independent variables and �� (�)� �� (�)� � � ��� (�) time-dependent variables (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005); �(�) = ��� � �� � � � ��� � �� (�)� �� (�)� � � ��� (�)� as shown. Accordingly, Cox regression model is, � and � which denote vector of coefficients of explanatory variables (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005); � � � � ���� �(�)� = �� (�) exp �∑��� �� �� �(�)� �� �� + ∑��� (2.6) as written. Where �(�) is defined as a function of time. Selection of �(�) varies according to the state of the variables used and according to the information level of the researchers. This function usually is defined in the form of �, ���( �), ��(�) or step functions (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005). � � (�) = ����� �� � ∗ (�)� � ����(�)� (2.7) �� � �� = exp �∑��� �� ���∗ � �� � + ∑��� �� ���∗ (�) � �� (�)�� An Application Into New Firm Survival Under Incubation Although the survival analysis extensively has been used in medical research on individuals, recently it becomes widely popular in business success and survival research. Thus, rather than on individuals, in this paper, we apply Cox regression to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. There are studies applying survival violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. Our 414 observations on firm characteristics acquired from 12 different incubators, İŞGEMs, located across Turkey, in Zonguldak, Tarsus, Ereğli, Eskişehir, Adana, Mersin, Van, Avanos, Samsun, Elazığ, Yozgat and Diyarbakır provinces. The data includes almost all firms that currently existing İŞGEMs or the firms that resided in the past yet left İŞGEMs by graduation or failure. The survey data consists of the total. A business incubator can be identified as an organization which mentors the development of newly founded firms by specialized services such as providing office space, specialized staff, machinery, equipment, facilities and business assistance (Aernoudt, 2004). Thus a business incubator is a framework organization which contains a collection of newly established firms. İŞGEMs are one of the significant business incubation concept operating in Turkey. Variables Used in the Analysis For our analysis, factors affecting the initial success of young enterprises can be summarized as i) Human capital characteristics of new enterprise's owner such as education level and sector experience, ii) Firm characteristics such as scale, age and human capital, iii) Industry characteristics such as market growth rate and entry barriers, iv) Incubation features, v) Other external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations, regional factors and public policies (Hackett and Dilts, 2004; Aernoudt, 2004). All of the data and variables used in our analysis are taken from Karaöz and Albeni (2011) and descriptive statistics and definitions are presented at The general hazard ratio formula for extended Cox model is shown below (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); 58 5 Journal of Economic and Social Studies 6 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 59 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Although the survival analysis extensively has been used in medical research on individuals, recently it becomes widely popular in business success and survival research. Thus, rather than on individuals, in this paper, we apply Cox regression to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. There are studies applying survival violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. Our 414 observations on firm characteristics acquired from 12 different incubators, İŞGEMs, located across Turkey, in Zonguldak, Tarsus, Ereğli, Eskişehir, Adana, Mersin, Van, Avanos, Samsun, Elazığ, Yozgat and Diyarbakır provinces. The data includes almost all firms that currently existing İŞGEMs or the firms that resided in the past yet left İŞGEMs by graduation or failure. The survey data consists of the total. A business incubator can be identified as an organization which mentors the development of newly founded firms by specialized services such as providing office space, specialized staff, machinery, equipment, facilities and business assistance (Aernoudt, 2004). Thus a business incubator is a framework organization which contains a collection of newly established firms. İŞGEMs are one of the significant business incubation concept operating in Turkey. Table 1. The variables used in analysis and descriptive statistics VARIABLE 60 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number of Mean Minimum Maximum Observation If the firm is closed (failed) during or after 414 the incubation 1, otherwise 0 exit - 0 1 404 41,52 2 158 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 367 3,64 3 4,25 414 - 0 1 414 5,83 0 40 414 - 0 1 414 1,24 1 4 DEPENDENT VARIABLE The elapsed time from the firm’s entry into incubation until it’s closed (month) incubage INDEPENDENT VARIABLES If entrepreneur’s income only comes from the incubated firm 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur is female 1, male 0 (If gender there are both male and female partner 0) Entrepreneur’s age (If there is a partnerlnentage ship, it is taken as the oldest entrepreneur’s age-logarithmic scale) If entrepreneur is a college graduate 1, enteduuni otherwise 0 (if there is a partnership and one of the partners is college graduate 1) Entrepreneur’s prior experience before entexp arriving İŞGEM (year) If there is a role model for entrepreneurfamily ship in entrepreneur’s family or surrounding 1, otherwise 0 The number of partners within the estabpartner lished firm income FEATURES OF THE FIRM Variables Used in the Analysis For our analysis, factors affecting the initial success of young enterprises can be summarized as i) Human capital characteristics of new enterprise’s owner such as education level and sector experience, ii) Firm characteristics such as scale, age and human capital, iii) Industry characteristics such as market growth rate and entry barriers, iv) Incubation features, v) Other external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations, regional factors and public policies (Hackett and Dilts, 2004; Aernoudt, 2004). All of the data and variables used in our analysis are taken from Karaöz and Albeni (2011) and descriptive statistics and definitions are presented at Table 3.1. The entrepreneur’s age, gender, education, professional career history and experience and family environment factors are the main factors in the literature in terms of the survival of firms (Karaöz and Albeni, 2011). DEFINITION EVENT OF INTEREST CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ENTREPRENEUR An Application Into New Firm Survival Under Incubation export If the firm export 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 lnempini initial firm size (logarithmic scale) 392 1,31 0 5,70 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 If the firm is a brand owner 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 If firm’s founding capital is completely loan 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur is in cooperation with networking stakeholders within and outside the incubator 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur has made innovation 1, innova otherwise 0 If the firm has had an advertising 1, othadvert erwise 0 onlyloan brand Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 61 �EXTERNAL FEATURES incubsize sector compete prorank cycle The number of incubation’s workshop If the firm is in the manufacturing industry 1, in the service sector 0 Intensity of competition in the sector (1-5 Likert scale) (%) Share of the GDP per capita of the province in the Country GDP where the incubation center is located If the firm has experienced an economic crisis 1, otherwise 0 Figure 1. The survival curve of firms which is present or graduate from incubation (month) 0 1 Kaplan-Meier survival estimate 1.00 - 0 1 414 43,14 14 84 411 - 0 1 410 - 1 5 414 1,51 0,59 2,07 414 - 0 1 0.75 - 0.50 whenest If entrepreneur has used at least one of the common services offered by incuba- 414 tion 1, otherwise 0 If the incubated firm entered the incubation center within first 3 years (36 months) 414 of incubation center 1, otherwise 0 0.25 comserv Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia 0.00 INDUSTRIAL INCUBATION PROPERTIES SERVICES AND PROPERTIES Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Source: Karaöz M. and Albeni M.,” The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, TÜBİTAK Project No: 109K139, Isparta, March 2011. (exit) variable is used as dependent variable. It takes the value of 1 if the firm is closed within the period in incubation or after the firm has graduated from incubation, the value of 0 in other cases. In addition to (exit), exit time (incubage) is the other main variable in our survival analysis. As seen at Table 3.1, for our dataset, the firms’ average life expectancy is 41.52 months. The maximum survival time observed as 158 months. Some of the firms failed either during or some time after leaving the incubator. Yet some of the firms still continue their activity either at incubator or outside the incubator. Survival curve of firms has been presented at Figure 3.1. According to the figure, surivors after 158 months diminish to about 20%. 50 0 analysis time 100 150 Results All Cox Regression results with and without considering time effects are presented in Table 3.2. (gender), (lnentage), (family), (export), (lnempini), (advert), (brand), (comserv), (sector), (compete) and (cycle) variables are insignificant in Model 1, which the time-dependent effects have not taken into account. According to Model 1 estimates, entrepreneur’s gender, age, whether s/he is affected family environment; initial firm size, whether the firm exports and does advertising, whether the firm is brand owner; whether the firm takes advantage of common services offered by incubators; the sector in which the firm, intensity of competition in the sector and whether the firm experienced any macroeconomic crisis are not significant on the firms’ survival times. Our tests indicate that further estimations are necessary using time-dependent variables. Thus we produce further new estimates and present most relevant two model results at Table 3.2. Model 2 includes the variables which in Model 1 and all of the interaction terms created by each of these variables multiplying , which is a function of time, in order to handle variable-time interaction. The Model 3 are obtained by removing the interaction terms of (lnempini), (innova), (enteduuni), (whenest), (export), (brand), (gender), (sector), (advert), (networking), (entexp), (income), (onlyloan), (partner), (family), (lnentage), (comserv), (compete) and (cycle) variables from the model. Model 3 is the best model that takes into account timedependent effects. The variables of (incubsize) and (prorank) are found to be the time-dependent variables. 62 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 63 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Table 2. The estimates of the basic model and Cox model with time-dependent variables Variable Coefficient Variable income gender lnentage enteduuni entexp family partner export lnempini onlyloan networking innova advert brand comserv whenest incubsize sector compete prorank cycle 1.18 -0.056 0.265 0.659 -0.084 -0.307 -1.71 0.827 0.214 -1.03 -1.47 -1.67 0.636 0.865 0.264 -1.18 0.010*** 0.892 0.732 0.044** 0.042** 0.402 0.015** 0.308 0.278 0.063* 0.004*** 0.006*** 0.17 0.275 0.592 0.013** 0.002*** 0.738 0.416 0.013** 0.21 5.16 1.14 6.45 0.289 -0.307 -4.63 1.07 6.47 0.274 -6.97 4.45 -2.24 -2.74 -4.22 -6.63 -0.985 -0.261 19.4 0.253 0.745 0.422 0.924 0.342 0.205 0.844 0.576 0.847 0.215 0.333 0.74 0.522 0.685 0.217 0.813 0.015** 0.291 0.23 0.003*** 0.085* 1.75 -0.093 0.721 0.762 -0.101 -0.249 -2.39 0.951 0.196 -1.88 -1.54 -2.46 0.615 1.61 0.638 -2.25 -0.253 16.9 0.000*** 0.826 0.364 0.024** 0.013** 0.518 0.001*** 0.303 0.298 0.002*** 0.004*** income gender lnentage enteduuni entexp family partner export lnempini onlyloan networking innova advert brand comserv whenest incubsize sector compete prorank cycle -0.959 -0.352 -1.48 0.139 0.055 1.23 -1.08 -1.25 -0.023 1.3 -1.7 -0.147 0.924 1.48 1.99 -0.415 0.059 0.427 0.699 0.474 0.861 0.505 0.212 0.457 0.678 0.954 0.378 0.177 0.937 0.418 0.582 0.161 0.718 0.030** 0.344 0.17 0.001*** 0.108 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.058 - - -5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.017** - - 0.001*** - -0.02 -0.156 -0.157 -1.16 0.46 Model 1 -4.39 2.92 10.5 Model 2 -0.425 -0.341 0.791 Model 3 Model 2 (cont.) Model 3 (cont.) 0.001*** 0.198 0.074* 0.234 0.000*** 0.009*** 0.362 0.099* 1.03 -0.903 0.002*** 0.040** -5.74 -2.5 - *, **, and *** indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively. Log-likelihood and prob values of ​​Model 1, 2 and 3, respectively, are -190.632 [0.000***], -165.552 [0.000***] and -173.255 [0.000***]. 64 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 65 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Also considering the Model 2 and 3, we obtain various results regarding the variables. The possibility of failure of the firms, whose owners only dependent on earnings coming from its new-born firm, is about 6 times higher than other firms. In this case it has been seen that the entrepreneurs having income from other sources are more likely to be successful in start-up business. It is interesting to see the result that the firms whose owners are university graduates have about two times higher risk of failure than other firms. Yet there is a plausible explanation. Most of the incubator residents are specialized in low-technology industries, which have higher likelihood of failure. University graduates, who later realized that the new business has not much prospect, close the firm immediately and return looking for a job related to his carreer. University graduates have higher chance of finding a better paying job than non-university graduates. By the same token, non-university graduates seem to strive more to keep the new business alive. An increase in the number of partners in the firm decreases the possibility of failure of firms to 20%. It is interesting to see that failure risk of firms, whose founding capital is formed entirely by loans, is only about %15 of the other firms, whose initial capital is partially or fully self-financed. If an entrepreneur is in collaboration with stakeholders within and outside the incubation, survival probability of the firm becomes approximately 5-times higher. Moreover, it has been seen from the estimates that innovation activity of new firms increases chance of survival approximately 12-times. Brand ownership also increases the chance of the firm’s survival. Establishing a firm within an incubation center that is within its first 3-years (36 months) increases survival probability. Finally, firms those experiences a macroeconomic crisis have nearly two times more likelihood of failure than others. were estimated by including the time-dependent explanatory variables in the model. Our extended model results have shown that it become useful to estimate the Cox Proportional Hazards regression by also including the time-varying explanatory variables to the analysis. Both the time-independent and time-dependent variables create significant effects on the probability of survival of the İŞGEM firms. Overall, our estimates suggest that entrepreneurial experience acquired before starting business at İŞGEM, higher number of partners in the firm, formation of the firm’s capital completely by loan, being in collaboration with stakeholders within and outside the incubator, innovative activities in the firm, starting the new business within first 36 months of an incubator (in a young incubator), higher number of office spaces, establishing the firm in an economically larger province, and the density of competition in the sector have positive impact on the probability of survival of the new-born firms within the incubator. Entrepreneurs whose only source of income comes from the young firm, who has college diploma, who has brand ownership at the firm, who experience a macroeconomic crisis are more likely to fail. References Aernoudt, R. (2004). Incubators: Tool for Entrepreneurship?. mall Business conomics, 23, 127-35. Başar, E. (2006, May). rantılı lmayan Hazard Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Paper presented at 5. İstatistik Günleri Sempozyumu, Antalya, pp.111-16. Bellera, C.A., MacGrogan, G., Debled, M., De Lara, C.T., Brouste, V., & Mathoulin-Pélissier, S. (2010). Variables with time-varying effects and the Cox model: Some statistical concepts illustrated with a prognostic factor study in breast cancer. BM Medical esearch Methodology, 10:20. Conclusions Cox proportional hazard model, besides others, rest on proportional hazards assumption that independent variables do not vary with time. When PH assumption is violated, Cox regression estimates become biased. Then, Cox survival estimates can be corrected by including the time-varying effects to the analysis. Identification and calculation of time-dependent effects give the opportunity to obtain some otherwise unseen valuable special time pattern information. In our analysis, initially, the Cox regression was performed by considering that all explanatory variables are constant over time. Then, extended Cox regression models 66 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Cox, D.R., & Oakes, D. (1984). Anaylsis of urvival ata. London: Chapman and Hall. Demirgil, H. (2008). irmaların Hayatta Kalma and Büyüme Performanslarını Belirleyen aktörler: Göller Bölgesi Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Ph.D. Thesis. Department of Economics, Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta. Geiss, K., Meyer, M., Radespiel-Tröger, M., & Gefeller, O. (2009). SURVSOFT—Software for nonparametric survival analysis. omputer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, lsevier Ireland ., 96, 63–71. Hackett, M., & Dilts, D.M. (2004). A Systematic Review of Business Incubation Research. Journal of echnology ransfer, 29, 55-82. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 67 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Karaöz, M., & Albeni, M., (2011), İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan Girişimlerin Hayatta Kalma ve üyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: KO GE İş Geliştirme Merkezleri (İŞGEM) Üzerine ir Araştırma. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). (Issue Brief No. 109K139). Kleinbaum, D.G., & Klein, M. (2005). urvival Analysis: A elf- earning ext (2nd Ed.). New York: Springer. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey Scheike, T. H. (2004). Time-Varying Effects in Survival Analysis. In: N. Balakrishnan & C.R. Rao. (Ed.), Advances in urvival Analysis, 61-85. Amsterdam: Elsevier North-Holland. Özgür Polat Department of Economics Dicle University, Diyarbakır, Turkey opolat@dicle.edu.tr Sertkaya, D., Ata, N., & özer, M. T. (2005). Yaşam çözümlemesinde zamana bağlı açıklayıcı değişkenli Cox regresyon modeli. Ankara Üniversitesi ıp akültesi Mecmuası, 58, 153-58. Tabatabai, M. A., Bursac, Z., Williams, D. K., & Singh, K. P. (2007). Hypertabastic survival model. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 4:40. Enes E. Uslu Department of Econometrics Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey ertad10@hotmail.com Yay, M., Çoker, E., & Uysal, Ö. (2007). Yaşam Analizinde Cox Regresyon Modeli ve Artıkların İncelenmesi, errahpaşa ıp ergisi, 38, 139-45. Hüseyin Kalyoncu Department of International Trade Meliksah University, Kayseri, Turkey hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr Abstr ct This study analyzes unit root properties of total and sectorial energy production and consumption series of urkey. This study is the first to analyze unit root properties of urkish energy production and consumption in detail. The unit root analysis of energy production and consumption are tested by using unit root tests based on M considering without structural break and with one and two structural breaks. According to unit root test without structural break, the unit root hypothesis is rejected only for consumption of natural gas. The unit root hypothesis is rejected for 15 out of the 33 series by the test with one structural break. When unit root test with two structural breaks are conducted, 25 out of the 33 series are found to be stationary around a deterministic trend. The production of hydraulic and the consumption of lignite, electricity, petroleum, coal and electricity, total energy and petroleum consumption in ransportation sector are found to be nonstationary, which indicates that the impacts of innovations on these variables will be permanent. The policy implication of the results suggests that the impacts of shocks on energy consumption and production will be temporary and not have a long memory for most of variables. KEYWO D nergy onsumption, nergy Production, nit oot Analysis, urkey A I LE HI O Y ubmitted: 04 ctober 2012 esubmitted: 24 ecember 2012 Accepted: 25 March 2013 JEL ode: Q43, Q48 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 69 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2386 Title A name given to the resource Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms 1 Author Author Aygül , Anavatan KARAÖZ, Murat Abstract A summary of the resource. The most widely used model in multivariate analysis of survival data is proportional hazards model proposed by ox. While it is easy to get and interpret the results of the model, the basic assumption of proportional hazards model is that independent variables assumed to remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. ne of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable and a parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using ox regression considering time-varying variables. The firm data comes from Business evelopment enters (İŞG M) which is a prominent business incubation center operating in urkey. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/2eb262891ec9302ca711e0db8a884afd.pdf 0ae6110530333c34ba71ffd5c5797b69 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Engle, R.F. (1982) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Cariance of UK Inflation, Econometrica, 50, 987-1008. Erden, L. and Sağlam, G. (2009) Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Oynakliğinin Sektörel Ithalata Etkileri: Bir Ardl Ithalat Modeli Analizi, H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(2), 19-44. Gül E. and Ekinci A. (2006) Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1990 – 2006, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16, 165190. Hwang H. and Lee, J. (2005) Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows of the U.K. in 1990s, International Area Review, 8(1), 173-182. Pesaran, M.H. and Shin Y. (1999) An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, in: Strom, S.(Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Camridge University Press, Cambridge. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001) Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. Sarı A. (2010) Döviz Kuru Oynakliğinin Ithalata Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği, İstanbul Üniversitesi Iktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 11, 31–44. Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms (*) Aygül Anavatan, Murat Karaöz Akdeniz University, İİBF, Department of Econometrics 07058, Kampus, Antalya, Turkey E-mails: aygulanavatan@akdeniz.edu.tr, mkaraoz@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract Cox proportional hazards model assumes that independent variables remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. One of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable as parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using Cox regression considering time depedent independent variables. (*) This paper is an extension to the findings of the scientific research project “The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, 109K139, which has been funded with grant from TÜBİTAK. We also acknowledge the administrative support to the project from KOSGEB. 49 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Keywords: Survival analysis; Cox Regression Model; Proportional Hazard Assumption; New Firms 1.INTRODUCTION Survival analysis deals with the probability of occurrence of a given event at a set of particular points in a time interval (Cox and Oakes, 1984). The typical survival anaylsis may include the reports of hazard rates, ratios and survival curves while relating a likely set of independent variables to a specific event. In the small business and entrepreneurship literature, survival analysis has been used to track the start-ups over the years. A survival curve of a cohort of newly established firms reports what percentage of the cohort continue to survive since its inception over time, indicating whether some of the firms are failed over the years (Karaöz and Albeni, 2011). Cox proportional hazards (PH) model is the most preferred model in order to investigate the effect of variables on survival time. The key assumption of Cox model is that hazard rate related to different levels of the factors is constant throughout the follow-up period (Başar, 2006). Violation of the PH assumption requires additional measures for unbiased results of Cox Survival regression. In this paper, Cox regression has been applied to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. Violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. 2.SURVIVAL ANALYSIS In a survival analysis, it is usually referred to the time variable as survival time, because it gives the time that an individual has “survived” over some followup period (Geiss et al., 2009). It is also typically referred to the event as a failure, because the event of interest usually is death, disease incidence, or some other negative individual experience (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). When survival time ( ) is defined as a random variable with cumulative distribution function and probability density function , survival function is explained by Equation (2.1) (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007); (2.1) Survival function gives the probability that the random variable exceeds the specified time (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). All survival functions have the characteristics that i) they are nonincreasing; that is, they head downward as increases, ii) at time , ; that is, at the start of the study, since no one has gotten the event yet, the probability of surviving past time 0 is one, iii) at time , ; that is, theoretically, if the study period increased without limit, eventually nobody would survive, so the survival curve must eventually fall to zero (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). The hazard function , with its complement of survival function , is given by Equation (2.2), where denotes a small interval of time (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); (2.2) 50 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The hazard function gives the instantaneous potential per unit time for the event to occur, given that the individual has survived up to time (Tabatabai et al., 2007). In contrast to the survival function, which focuses on not failing, the hazard function focuses on failing, that is, on the event occurring (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). 2.1.The Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) Model The Cox PH model is usually written in terms of the hazard model formula shown at equation (2.3). This model gives an expression for the hazard at time for an individual with a given specification of a set of explanatory variables denoted by . That is, represents a collection of predictor variables that is being modeled to predict an individual’s hazard (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). (2.3) The Cox model formula says that the hazard at time is the product of two quantities. The first of these, , is called the baseline hazard function. The second quantity is the exponential expression to the linear sum of , where the sum is over the explanatory variables (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). A hazard ratio is defined as the hazard for one individual divided by the hazard for a different individual. The two individuals being compared can be distinguished by their values for the set of predictors, that is, the X’s. HR is shown by the following formula, where denotes the set of predictors for one individual, and denotes the set of predictors for the other individual (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); (2.4) Once the model is fitted and the values for and are specified, the value of the exponential expression for the estimated HR is a constant, , which does not depend on time (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); (2.5) Running the Cox regression, observations should be independent of each other and HR should remains constant with time. This assumption related to hazard ratio is known as PH assumption. If the HR is increasing over time, the estimated coefficients assuming PH is overestimating at first and underestimating later on (Bellera et al., 2010). 2.2.Extension of the Cox Proportional Hazards Model An important feature of this formula, which concerns the PH assumption, is that the baseline hazard is a function of , but does not involve the ’s. The ’s in the formula are called time-independent ’s (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). It is possible, nevertheless, to consider ’s which do involve . Such ’s are called time-dependent variables. If timedependent variables are considered, the Cox model form may still be used yet in an extended form, as the orginal model do not satify the PH assumption (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). 51 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In the case of being time-dependent explanatory variables, Cox regression model expands to a model which contains time-independent variables and some functions of the time the product with these variables. Independent variables are, , where time-independent variables and time-dependent variables (Sertkaya et al., 2005). Then, Cox regression model is, (Sertkaya et al., 2005); and which denote vector of coefficients of explanatory variables (2.6) Where is defined as a function of time. or as step function (Sertkaya et al., 2005). usually is defined in the form of , , 3.AN APPLICATION INTO NEW FIRM SURVIVAL UNDER INCUBATION Although the Survival analysis extensively been used in medical research on individuals, recently it becomes widely popular in Business Success and survival research. Thus, rather than on individuals, in this paper, we apply Cox regression to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. There are studies applying survival Violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. Our 414 observations on firm characteristics acquired from 12 different incubators, İŞGEMs, located across Turkey. The data includes almost all firms that currently exist İŞGEMs or the firms that resided in the past yet left İŞGEMs by graduation or failure. The survey data consists the total of. A business incubator can be identified as an organization which mentors the development of newly founded firms by specialized services such as providing office space, specialized staff, machinery, equipment, facilities and business assistance (Aernoudt, 2004). 3.1.Variables Used in the Analysis For our analysis, factors affecting the initial success of young enterprises can be summarized as i) Human capital characteristics of new enterprise's owner such as education level and sector experience, ii) Firm characteristics such as scale, age and human capital, iii) Industry characteristics such as market growth rate and entry barriers, vi) Incubation features, v) Other external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations, regional factors and public policies (Hackett and Dilts, 2004). All of the data and variables used in our analysis are taken from Karaöz and Albeni (2011) and descriptive statistics and definitions are presented at Table 3.1. Table 3.1: The variables used in analysis and descriptive statistics VARIABLE DEFINITION Observation s Mean Minimum Maximum 414 - 0 1 EVENT OF INTEREST exit If the firm is closed (failed) during or after the incubation 1, otherwise 0 52 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo DEPENDENT VARIABLE incubage The elapsed time from the firm's entry into incubation until it's closed (month) 404 41,52 2 158 income If entrepreneur's income only comes from the incubated firm 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 gender If entrepreneur is female 1, male 0 (If there are both male and female partner 0) 414 - 0 1 lnentage Entrepreneur’s age (If there is a partnership, it is taken as the oldest entrepreneur’s agelogarithmic scale) 367 3,64 3 4,25 enteduuni If entrepreneur is a college graduate 1, otherwise 0 (if there is a partnership and one of the partners is college graduate 1) 414 - 0 1 entexp Entrepreneur's prior experience before arriving İŞGEM (year) 414 5,83 0 40 family If there is a role model for entrepreneurship in entrepreneur's family or surrounding 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 partner The number of partners witin the established firm 414 1,24 1 4 export If the firm export 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 lnempini initial firm size (logarithmic scale) 392 1,31 0 5,70 onlyloan If firm's founding capital is completely loan 1, otherwise 414 - 0 1 FEATURES OF THE FIRM CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ENTREPRENEUR INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 53 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo EXTERNAL FEATURES INDUSTRIAL PROPERTIES INCUBATION SERVICES AND PROPERTIES 0 networking If entrepreneur is in cooperation with stakeholders within and outside the incubator 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 innova If entrepreneur has made innovation 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 advert If the firm has had an advertising 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 brand If the firm is a brand owner 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 comserv If entrepreneur has used at least one of the common services offered by incubation 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 whenest If the incubated firm entered the incubation center within first 3 years (36 months) of incubation center 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 incubsize The number of incubation's workshop 414 43,14 14 84 sector If the firm is in the manufacturing industry 1, in the service sector 0 411 - 0 1 compete Intensity of competition in the sector (1-5 Likert scale) 410 - 1 5 prorank (%) Share of the GDP per capita of the province in the Country GDP where the incubation center is located 414 1,51 0,59 2,07 cycle If the firm has experienced an economic crisis 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 Source: Karaöz and Albeni (2011). 54 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo According to our data, Firm Survival Curve has been presented at Figure 3; Surivors diminish to about 20% with 158 months. 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 Kaplan-Meier survival estimate 0 50 100 150 analysis time Figure 3.1: Survival curve of firms with failures during or after incubation 3.2. Results All Cox Regression results with and without considering time effects are presented in Table 3.2. Our PH tests indicate that further estimations are necessary using time-dependent variables. Model 2 estimates include the variables which in Model 1 and all of the interaction terms created by each of these variables multiplying , which is a function of time, in order to handle variable-time interaction. The Model 3 are obtained by using only the relevant variables of (incubsize) and (prorank), which are found to be the time-dependent variables. 55 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 3.2: Estimates of the basic and with time-dependent Cox model variables Coefficients Variable income gender lnentage enteduuni entexp family partner export lnempini onlyloan networking innova advert brand comserv whenest incubsize sector compete prorank cycle 1.18 -0.056 0.265 0.659 -0.084 -0.307 -1.71 0.827 0.214 -1.03 -1.47 -1.67 0.636 0.865 0.264 0.010** * 0.892 0.732 5.16 1.14 6.45 0.253 0.745 0.422 0.924 1.75 -0.093 0.000** * 0.826 -1.18 -0.02 -0.156 0.044** 0.042** 0.402 0.015** 0.308 0.278 0.063* 0.004*** 0.006** * 0.17 0.275 0.592 0.013** 0.002*** 0.738 -0.157 -1.16 0.46 0.416 0.013** 0.21 Model 1 0.289 -0.307 -4.63 1.07 6.47 0.274 -6.97 4.45 -2.24 -2.74 -4.22 -6.63 -0.985 -0.261 -4.39 0.342 0.205 0.844 0.576 0.847 0.215 0.333 0.74 0.522 0.685 0.217 0.813 0.015** 0.291 0.721 0.762 -0.101 -0.249 -2.39 0.951 0.196 -1.88 -1.54 -2.46 0.615 1.61 0.638 -2.25 -0.253 -0.425 0.364 0.024** 0.013** 0.518 0.001** * 0.303 0.298 0.002*** 0.004*** 0.001** * 2.92 19.4 10.5 Model 2 0.23 0.003*** 0.085* -0.341 16.9 0.791 Model 3 0.198 0.074* 0.234 0.000*** 0.009*** 0.362 0.099* 0.002*** 0.040* * gender lnentage enteduuni entexp family partner export lnempini onlyloan networking innova advert brand comserv whenest incubsize sector compete prorank cycle income Model 2 (cont.) -0.959 -0.352 -1.48 0.139 0.055 1.23 -1.08 -1.25 -0.023 1.3 0.427 0.699 0.474 0.861 0.505 0.212 0.457 0.678 0.954 0.378 56 -1.7 -0.147 0.177 0.937 0.924 1.48 1.99 -0.415 0.418 0.582 0.161 0.718 0.059 1.03 0.030** 0.344 -0.903 -5.74 -2.5 0.17 0.001*** 0.108 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Model 3 (cont.) *, **, and *** indicate significance at the 1, 5 and 10% levels, respectively. Log-likelihood and prob values of Model 1, 2 and 3, respectively, are -190.632 [0.000***], -165.552 [0.000***] and -173.255 [0.000***]. 57 0.058 -5 0.017** 0.001*** �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Considering all the model estimates, we obtain various results regarding the variables. The possibility of failure of the firms, whose owners only dependent on earnings coming from its new-born firm higher than other firms. In this case it has been seen that the entrepreneurs having income from other sources are more likely to be successful in start-up business. It is interesting to see the result that the firms whose owners are university graduates have about two times higher risk of failure than other firms. An increase in the number of partners in the firm decreases the possibility of failure of firms. It is interesting to see that failure risk of firms, whose founding capital is formed entirely by loans, are lower than whose initial capital is partially or fully self-financed. If an entrepreneur is in collaboration with stakeholders within and outside the incubation, survival probability of the firm becomes higher. Moreover, it has been seen from the estimates that innovation activity of new firms increases chance of survival. Brand ownership also increases the chance of the firm's survival. Establishing a firm within an incubation center that is within its first 3-years increases survival probability. Finally, firms those experience a macroeconomic crisis have nearly two times more likelyhood of failure than others. 4.CONCLUSIONS Cox proportional hazard model, besides others, rest on proportional hazards assumption that independent variables do not vary with time. When PH assumption is violated and Cox regression estimates become biased. Then, Cox survival estimates can be corrected by including the time-varying effects to the analysis. Identification and calculation of timedependent effects give the oppotunity to obtain some otherwise unseen valuable special time pattern information. In our analysis, initially, the Cox regression was performed by considering that all explanatory variables are constant over time. Then, extended Cox regression models were estimated by including the time-dependent explanatory variables in the model. Our extended model results have shown that it become usefull to estimate the Cox Proportional Hazards regression by also including the time-varying explanatory variables to the analysis. Both the time-independent and time-dependent variables create significant effects on the probability of survival of the İŞGEM firms. REFERENCES Aernoudt, R. (2004). Incubators: Tool for Entrepreneurship?. Small Business Economics, 23, 127-35. Başar, E. (2006). Orantılı Olmayan Hazard Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Paper presented at 5. İstatistik Günleri Sempozyumu, Antalya,111-16. Bellera, C.A., MacGrogan, G., Debled, M., De Lara, C.T., Brouste, V., & MathoulinPélissier, S. (2010). Variables with time-varying effects and the Cox model: Some statistical concepts illustrated with a prognostic factor study in breast cancer. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 10-20. Cox, D.R., & Oakes, D. (1984). Anaylsis of Survival Data. London: Chapman and Hall. Geiss, K., Meyer, M., Radespiel-Tröger, M., & Gefeller, O. (2009). SURVSOFT—Software for nonparametric survival analysis. Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, Elsevier Ireland LTD., 96, 63–71. 58 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Hackett, M., & Dilts, D.M. (2004). A Systematic Review of Business Incubation Research. Journal of Technology Transfer, 29, 55-82. Kleinbaum, D.G., & Klein, M. (2005). Survival Analysis: A Self-Learning Text (2nd Ed.). New York: Springer. Sertkaya, D., Ata, N., & Sözer, M. T. (2005). Yaşam çözümlemesinde zamana bağlı açıklayıcı değişkenli Cox regresyon modeli. Ankara Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Mecmuası, 58, 153-58. Tabatabai, M. A., Bursac, Z., Williams, D. K., & Singh, K. P. (2007). Hypertabastic survival model. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 4-40. Karaöz, M., & Albeni, M., (2011), İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan Girişimlerin Hayatta Kalma ve Büyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: KOSGEB İş Geliştirme Merkezleri (İŞGEM) Üzerine Bir Araştırma. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). (Issue Brief No. 109K139). Yay, M., Çoker, E., & Uysal, Ö. (2007). Yaşam Analizinde Cox Regresyon Modeli and Artıkların İncelenmesi, Cerrahpaşa Tıp Dergisi, 38, 139-45. Seeking Debt Crisis And Solution In Europe Ali Yavuz,Ceyda Şataf,Dilek Göze Kaya, Serap Gül S.D.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Maliye Bölümü, E-mails: aliyavuz@sdu.edu.tr, ceydasataf@sdu.edu.tr, dilekgozkaya@hotmail.com gul_serap19@hotmail.com Abstract In this study, the European Union (EU) countries, the countiries of their lives go down to the root causes of the debt crisis by making suggestions in search of solutions to the debt crisis will be examined. Emerging in the U.S.A. mortgage market crisis in 2007, quickly spread to the real sector from the financial sector in the years 2007-2009. And so the U.S.A. economy, increased unemployment and stagnation in 2008 and 2009 a major problem encountered. The economic crisis in the U.S. especially in EU countries, especially spread through strong financial relationships. Cause of the crisi spreading, the U.S.A., its foreign trade with third countries EU’s countries and possble recession and real income loses, narrowed. Foreign demand for exports of goods and services of third countries. Another reason for the crisi, said that the U.S.A. debt-based consumer spending growth can’t be prevented. E.U.’s main causes of debt crisi, the misappropriation of resources, competition loss, and therefore can’t be seen in this negative economic revival began participation in the Euro. Falling ineterest rates in euro countries participating in the pre-crisis period, the total demand by facilitating increased borrowing opportunities. GIIPS( Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries in paralel with an increase in demand has increased in both public and private debts. Increased demand led to an increase in the prices of goods and services increase in investment. In the last part of study, the debt crisis of the EU countries should take measures to release the elimanation of 59 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1313 Title A name given to the resource Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms (*) Author Author Aygül , Anavatan Abstract A summary of the resource. Cox proportional hazards model assumes that independent variables remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. One of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable as parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using Cox regression considering time depedent independent variables. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b55185ef8982133e1339740824b23f61.docx fc4e0d01a047d188e82ac70363962c55 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d3b64686ff9e3eb9997d84669fe3c5e4.pdf 8495c1ce1fcfdf58684ed493373b88f7 PDF Text Text “Cracking Buenas Historias”: Creating Fiction For Low Literate Adult Immigrants in Spain Marcin Sosinski & Esteban T. Montoro Del Arco Universidad de Granada/ Granada, Spain Key words : Spanish, immigration, extensive reading ABSTRACT Practitioners working with low literate adult immigrants in Spain must deal with the lack of suitable materials. The manuals used in class have two major flaws: they are based on outdated and not significant methods of teaching literacy or they have been designed for native children and, therefore, they are not suitable for non-native adults. In order to change this situation a “Cracking Good Stories” project was launched in Newcastle University by Martha Young-Scholten and afterwards it was joined by Granada University in 2010 where it received the name of “Cracking Buenas Historias”. Both projects aim to create fiction texts for extensive reading programs focused on low literate adult immigrants with low (under A1) language skills. The books are designed and illustrated by university students who have to reflect on the language and literacy learning process, the situation of the immigrants in Spain and the features of interesting fiction texts. Finally, the copyright free products are uploaded to a web site (wdb.ugr.es/local/sosinski) and printed copies are distributed among adult centers. The goal of the presentation is to explain the basis of an extensive reading program, show how the original English project was adapted to the Spanish context, present the webpage and the printed versions of the materials. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1837 Title A name given to the resource Cracking Buenas Historias”: Creating Fiction For Low Literate Adult Immigrants in Spain Author Author SOSINSKI, Marcin DEL ARCO, Esteban T. Montoro Abstract A summary of the resource. Key words : Spanish, immigration, extensive reading ABSTRACT Practitioners working with low literate adult immigrants in Spain must deal with the lack of suitable materials. The manuals used in class have two major flaws: they are based on outdated and not significant methods of teaching literacy or they have been designed for native children and, therefore, they are not suitable for non-native adults. In order to change this situation a “Cracking Good Stories” project was launched in Newcastle University by Martha Young-Scholten and afterwards it was joined by Granada University in 2010 where it received the name of “Cracking Buenas Historias”. Both projects aim to create fiction texts for extensive reading programs focused on low literate adult immigrants with low (under A1) language skills. The books are designed and illustrated by university students who have to reflect on the language and literacy learning process, the situation of the immigrants in Spain and the features of interesting fiction texts. Finally, the copyright free products are uploaded to a web site (wdb.ugr.es/local/sosinski) and printed copies are distributed among adult centers. The goal of the presentation is to explain the basis of an extensive reading program, show how the original English project was adapted to the Spanish context, present the webpage and the printed versions of the materials. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available IBU Publishing Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-03 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed