51 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/0d9edff988996d8899fdbebbbcd0fa37.pdf 1b6cc03b4ac33d863cf1c4bde3739d8f PDF Text Text BRAND LOYALTY IN THE TIME OF CRISIS CASE OF VOLKSWAGEN IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Damir Dinarević International Burch University Francuske revolucije bb, Ilidža Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina damir.dinarevic@gmail.com Abstract: In this study the customers’ loyalty of company Volkswagen will be discussed. The issue is very attractive, since the company was facing crisis being accused for software cheats on pollution checkouts. Since they are present in Bosnia and Herzegovina for many years, and some parts were produced on this area, it is suitable that market of Bosnia would be researched to check how strong loyalty of customers is. The survey was created in order to collect data. In three parts of capital city Sarajevo (Sarajevo City Center, Grand Center and Old Town) people were randomly surveyed. Regression analysis was done, where trust in brand was dependent variable. We found that trust in brand is positively related to brand loyalty, discovering that Bosnian customers are loyal to Volkswagen. Studies like this can be done in other countries as well, helping Volkswagen to rebuild trust in customers who were affected by this crisis. Keywords: Customer Loyalty, Brand Loyalty, Volkswagen, Bosnia and Herzegovina Introduction Achieving customers’ loyalty is the aim of the every company, but once the company has customers’ loyalty; it needs to try to keep it as well. Volkswagen was in crisis in September 2015, because of the scandal in press that Volkswagen cheated on CO2 emission tests. This crisis put a company in very bad position, many customers of Volkswagen asked for refund, and the news spread out quickly throughout the world. Stocks of Volkswagen fell sharply, and it started losing hundreds customers daily. Market of Bosnia and Herzegovina is small market for Volkswagen, but there are still many loyal customers of Volkswagen. Their loyalty is connected to the production of Volkswagen parts and complete products twenty years ago. Workers of the company spread out good word of mouth to all their family and friends and to the new generations. Thus, most of the people in Bosnia and Herzegovina grow up listening only well about Volkswagen. The unconditional loyalty of customers on Bosnian Herzegovinian market was interesting to investigate in the time of crisis in which Volkswagen appeared to be in fall 2015. All the efforts taken to create strong brand are done in order to have loyal customers, who will attach to the brand emotionally and on regular level. Therefore we need to define brand loyalty, and all the factors influencing it. (Lau & Lee, 1999) defined brand loyalty as behavioral intention to purchase products of certain brand or to encourage other people to purchase that brand. As a support for this definition (Banks, 1968) in his study proved that there is strong relationship between actual purchase and behavioral intention towards a brand. ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book 323 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’16) Having loyal customers is very important for companies. They can maximize profit of the company because loyal customers are willing to purchase more frequently; spend money on trying new products or services; recommend products and services to others; and give companies sincere suggestions (Haghkhah, Hamid, Ben, Ebrahimpour, Roghanian, & Gheysari, 2013). Consequently, brand loyalty improves the success and profitability of a company. Many marketers and companies tried to define loyalty. Loyalty can be defined according to a (Brown, 1952) as a subset of repeat purchase behavior and intention to repeat the purchase. (Aaker, 1991) defined brand loyalty as a measure of the attachment that a customer has to a brand. (Dick & Basu, 1994) investigated customer loyalty, and they defined it as strength of the relationship between patronage behavior and attitudes towards a brand. (Griffin, 1995) took different approach defining customer loyalty as a resistance of customer to discounts provided by competitors, and regular purchase and recommendation to friends of the company’s products and services. Brand loyalty involves many concepts and factors that need to be understood and investigated. Some researchers define it taking in consideration many complicated factors while others are trying to simplify and create a base for understanding core of brand loyalty. For example (Oliver, 1999) defined brand loyalty taking in consideration many dimensions. According to him brand loyalty is “a deeply held commitment to rebuy or re-patronize a preferred product/service consistently in the future, thereby causing repetitive same-brand or same brand-set purchasing, despite situational influences and marketing efforts having the potential to cause switching behavior.” So, we can see that there are many ranges of dimensions included in his definition such as cognitive, affective, conative, and action. On the contrary, many published literature mention that there are three main streams of brand loyalty. Those are behavioral loyalty, attitudinal loyalty and integrated or composite loyalty. Attitudinal loyalty can be defined as the level of psychological attachments and attitudinal advocacy of customer to the product or brand (Rauyruen & Miller, 2007). Essentially, the degree to which a consumers’ character towards a service is favorable is denoted by attitude (Kay, 2006). Composite loyalty is the combination of behavioral and attitudinal loyalty. In other words composite loyalty includes repurchase intention and attitudinal advocacy of the brand. Composite loyalty is a dedication on the part of the customer to maintain a relationship and a devotion to buy the product or service repeatedly (Oliver, 1999). (Gommans, Krishnan, & Scheffold, 2001) identified brand loyalty through similar dimensions explained previously (cognitive, affective and behavioral intent). They added also the perception of the company toward creating brand loyalty, pointing out that companies are relying considerably on mass media communications for brand image building. Also they pointed out that creating satisfaction in customer doesn’t mean that they will be loyal to a brand. But, loyalty implies satisfaction and consequently according to (Roustasekehravani, Abdul Hamid, Haghkhah, & Pooladireishahri, 2014) there is asymmetric relationship between satisfaction and loyalty. Thus, something in between is needed to bring satisfaction to loyalty. Brand value can be defined as “that extra money made by a company or can be made from the selling of its products in solely way only due to the name of its brand” (Quester, Pettigrew, Kopanidis, Hill, & Hawkins, 2014). The corporate statement of Volkswagen Group is “innovation for everyone”, which represents their core values which they want to bring to consumers (Volkswagen official page). Each of their 324 ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book �Regional Economic Development: Entrepreneurship and Innovation brands represents high technology and German engineering skills which are symbol for quality. That is reason why customers are willing to spend more money to obtain Volkswagen and not another brand. Another value that Volkswagen is bringing to the market is affordable price. That is their strength which is there for every brand they produce, of course taking in consideration segment of market in which they compete. The brand image represents how customers see the brand, what is their opinion. There are many definitions of brand image, such as “human behavior, customers’ wants and desires, connection of customers to the brand” (Quester, Pettigrew, Kopanidis, Hill, & Hawkins, 2014). The brand image can be observed in terms of repeated purchase or in terms of occasional purchase, also the perception of customers toward brand in terms of quality or in terms of price. It is said that Volkswagen is successful to establish images of brands that compete between themselves, but it failed to create complementing brand image (Murphy, 2015). All those concepts need to be taken in consideration when researching loyalty of the customers. The company Volkswagen is German car manufacturing company established in 1946. Actually company was found by German Labor Front (Gesellschaft zur Vorbereitung des Deutschen Volkswagens mbH) ten years earlier with an aim to produce cars affordable for most of the German inhabitants. Thus, the name of the company Volkswagen means “The People’s Car Company” (Volkswagen official website). Headquarter of the company is in Wolfsburg, Germany. At the time they were established the main goal was to develop mass production of an affordable and fast vehicle. The Austrian engineer Ferdinand Porsche helped designing first automobiles produced. During the 70s the Volkswagen cars became more popular and became more sold than Ford Motor Company’s model T. The brand positioning of Volkswagen depends of the brand, since it has many brands for different segments of the market. Generally, Volkswagen wants to be perceived for all brads as quality product, good engineering, German manufacturing skills, durability of product etc. The brand positioning is not easy to achieve, thus with every new market the Volkswagen enters, they try to continually work on brand positioning in the minds of consumers (Murphy, 2015). Volkswagen is also usually positioned as affordable and innovative, since they are bringing new technology in every product and make it affordable for different segments of the market. During the September 2015 the scandal occurred with Volkswagen tests for pollution emission. It is said that Volkswagen cheated tests on 11 million diesel cars worldwide (Topham, Clarke, Levett, Scruton, & Fidler, 2015). Those cars were made to show reduced level of emission of nitrogen oxide on tests, but in reality they released approximately 40 more than what is standard by EPA. This scandal ruined Volkswagen reputation and caused many loyal customers to change their opinion about the company (Topham, Clarke, Levett, Scruton, & Fidler, 2015). The Volkswagen actually developed a system that was helping car to use fuel very efficiently. The system is called a common-rail fuel injection system. This system is leading to better fuel atomization through allowance of high precision electronically controlled fuel delivery and high pressure of injection. It is also bringing improved air/ fuel ratio regulation, and by extension enhanced control of emissions. It is all well explained theoretically, but it needed to become reality. The Volkswagen developed new system, called a urea-based exhaust after treatment system. This system claimed that Volkswagen engines will meet US emission requirements, and even be cleaner than the requirements are asking, and still bring good performance at the level of ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book 325 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’16) other Volkswagen engines. However, the theory did not meet the reality. Those systems did not combine good fuel economy and compliant nitrogen oxide emissions. In order to meet standards of US the Volkswagen programmed the cars to show low emission of nitrogen oxide on the laboratory tests. Thus, the car still showed good fuel economy and low emission instead of real high nitrogen oxide emission. It said that this cheating affair primarily affected 1.2 and 1.4 liter diesel engines and the 1.4 liter motor with a cylinder cut-off, the petrol engine (Hotten, 2015). There are many countries that are investigating Volkswagen group within their boundaries in order to find if they also equipped the vehicles in those countries with cheating software. The most rigorous is European Union and United States. European Union is considering recalling Volkswagen loans, and is planning to establish a federal authority to oversee those emissions of cars. Another consequence of those cheating software is fall of value of stock of Volkswagen group. The stock values were pretty much stable at the beginning of September, but when the results of tests were reviled the values of stocks sharply decreased and keep decreasing after that. Connection of Volkswagen with Bosnia starts in early 70s. In that time in Bosnia and Herzegovina there was factory that produced certain car parts, called Tvornica Automobila Sarajevo (TAS). TAS translated on English means Factory of Automobiles Sarajevo. They produced some parts for Volkswagen, and then they started producing come complete models of their cars. The Volkswagen owned 49 percent of the TAS shares, while another Bosnian Company “Udružena Metalna Industrija Sarajevo” (UNIS) owned 51 percent of shares (Reuters, 2008). Nowadays, there is no complete production of Volkswagen cars, but some parts of the cars are still produced in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The company from Gorazde Bekto Preciza is also producing some parts for Volkswagen, which they either sell on domestic market or send to the factories is Germany for production of all cars for European market. In 2008, there were negotiations to transfer the production factory from Slovakia to Volkswagen Bosnia and Herzegovina, which would bring 600-700 new workplaces to the Bosnia (Reuters, 2008). People in Bosnia value engineering and quality of Volkswagen products, especially because they were also producing them once and also because the old models are still used. Since it once provided many workplaces, and because old generations are spreading good word of mouth to the new generations, the Volkswagen brand is very much appreciated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and it has many loyal customers, who would always choose Volkswagen over another brand (Reuters, 2008). Data Data for this research is collected by the survey. The survey was done by selfenumeration method of the participant, using consumer intercept method. Random citizens of Sarajevo were asked to fulfill the questionnaire. The method chosen was efficient in sense of speed, economy and control of respondent type. The survey was conducted in March and April 2016 in three different locations in Sarajevo. First destination was in Old Town region, where random local people were asked to fulfill the questionnaire. Second location is newly built shopping mall, Sarajevo City Center, with largest garage in town. Finally, location in Ilidza municipality, Grand center, was last place where questionnaire was done. The method, which includes shopping malls, is in literature often called as mall intercept method. To reduce response bias, the items to measure the various constructs were ordered randomly. Also, about half of the total 326 ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book �Regional Economic Development: Entrepreneurship and Innovation number of items was reverse-scaled to avoid acquiescence bias. The questionnaire was administered to 20 individuals for the pre-test. The phrasings of some items, as well as the instructions were modified for greater clarity after receiving feedback. For this study the questionnaire was designed in order to collect the data. Questionnaire was made to target citizens Sarajevo, where sampling unit was individual consumer. There are few studies which investigated customers loyalty created questionnaires in order to measure customers’ loyalty. The basis for most of the researches, as well as for these studies is Lau and Lee’s (1999) study. They created questionnaire with liker scale for 15 different variables, those variables are Consumer Brand Characteristics, Similarity Between Consumer Self-Concept and Brand Personality, Brand Liking, Brand Experience, Brand Satisfaction, Peer Support, Company Characteristics, Trust in Company, Company Reputation, Company Perceived Motives, Company Integrity, Brand Characteristics, Brand Reputation, Brand Predictability and Brand Competence. Questionnaire was generally divided into two separated parts. First part is composed of questions concerning respondents’ profiles, such as gender, age and income. Second part of the questionnaire is part designed by previously mentioned Lau and Lees’ (1999) model. The questions in second part were grouped in the 13 major clusters, which were at the same time variables for our regression analysis. The standardized liker scale from 1 as minimum value to 7 as maximum value was used for the questions. Questionnaire was fulfilled by the 150 participants. The population of this study is the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Based on data provided by Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the quotas on age, gender and income where used to confirm a representative distribution of consumers in sample. Table below summarizes the descriptive statistics of the data used for the analysis. For each variable there were 150 observations, and from the table we see the mean and standard deviation for each variable. The mean score is the simple average of all items included in the construct (Lau & Lee, 1999). The scores for mean for all variables range from 3.51 to 5.91. The lowest mean has Brand experience variable, while Brand Reputation has the highest mean. Standard deviation shows how much the value of variables differs from the mean value for the variable. The standard deviations for variables vary from 0.83 to 1.35. Thus, the means and standard deviations appear to be acceptable. The lowest standard deviation is for Brand reputation, and the highest one is for Brand experience, just the opposite from means. The mean for each variable is important since mean values of variables for each observation are used in analysis of the data. Table 3.1.3.1. Descriptive statistics Variable name Standard Deviation Mean Brand Reputation 5.91 0.83 Brand Predictability 5.46 1.01 Brand Competence 4.90 1.31 Reputation of the company 5.03 0.94 Motives of the company 4.97 1.09 Company’s integrity 4.99 1.17 Brand Experience 3.51 1.35 Similarity Between Consumer Self-Concept and Brand Personality 4.70 1.30 ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book 327 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’16) Brand Liking 5.07 1.26 Friends support 4.94 1.57 Brand satisfaction 5.42 0.99 Trust in brand 5.27 1.25 Brand Loyalty 5.09 1.17 Source: Authors own calculation The data collected for this study was analyzed through the regression analysis in STATA econometric program. Before the actual regression was done, the reliability of the scales was tested through internal consistency method. The Cronbach’s alpha was used in order to perform internal consistency test. The table below show the results of the test obtained. It is important to mention that values higher than 0.70 are accepted, in case that there is value lower than 0.70 caution must be taken when interpreting results. As it is shown in the table, none of the Cronbach’s alpha coefficients is lower than 0.90, thus we can conclude that internal consistency of variable is fine, and further analysis can be done. Table 3.2.1. Cronbach’s alpha results Variable name alpha Brand Reputation 0.9417 Brand Predictability 0.9367 Brand Competence 0.9349 Reputation of the company 0.9406 Motives of the company 0.9429 Company’s integrity 0.9354 Brand Experience 0.9411 Similarity Between Consumer Self-Concept and Brand Personality 0.9396 Brand Liking 0.9358 Friends support 0.9384 Brand satisfaction 0.9366 Trust in brand 0.9349 Brand Loyalty 0.9344 Source: Authors own calculation Since the Cronbach’s coefficients have been acceptable, next test needs to be done before regression analysis. Pearson Correlation Analysis is done to check for correlation between variables. This analysis measure the linear correlation between two variables, where results can vary between +1 and −1 inclusive. The positive 1 means total positive correlation; also the negative 1 means total negative correlation; and finally in case of 0 it means that there is no correlation between those two variables. The highest and most disturbing result is correlation between Reputation of Company and Motives of the Company. It is found that correlation between those two variables is 0.9219. This high correlation should be taken in consideration when regression analysis is done, it can significantly disturb the results. Correlations among all other variables are in the acceptable range. Results The regression analysis was done with the data collected. There are two models of regression, first one done using all variables from the survey, and another without Motives 328 ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book �Regional Economic Development: Entrepreneurship and Innovation of the company, since this variable was highly correlated with the variable Reputation of company. For the both models the R2 and adjusted R2 are very high, slightly lower in the second model, but it is reasonable since there is one less variable in that model. It is also important to mention that higher R2 was expected since the sample was very much similar to the population of the Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, we can say that the fitted regression equation explains 79% of the variation in Brand Trust. It is also noticeable that significance of variables is different between the two models. The reputation of the company which was insignificant variable in first model appears to be highly significant in second model. Also, the Brand Reputation which was significant variable at 10 percent significance level in first model appears to be insignificant in another model. Other variables have pretty much same significance in both models. Thus, we can conclude that the correlation between Reputation of Company and Motives of the company disturbed results in first model, and that this situation was repaired by excluding Motives of the Company in second model Table 4.1. Results from the Regression Model 1 Variable name Coefficient p-value intercept 0.7494 * 0.072 Brand Reputation -0.1421 * 0.081 Brand Predictability 0.1235 0.132 Brand Competence 0.0979 0.165 Reputation of the company -0.0510 0.744 Motives of the company -0.1999 0.100 Company’s integrity 0.2093 *** Brand Experience 0.0146 0.782 Similarity Between Consumer Self-Concept and Brand Personality 0.1658 *** Brand Liking -0.0533 0.458 Friends support 0.1143 ** 0.029 Brand satisfaction 0.2070 ** 0.015 Brand Loyalty 0.4248 *** Number of observations 150 R2 0.7873 Adjusted R2 0.7687 Source: Authors own calculation 0.000 0.003 0.000 Taking in consideration coefficients gotten from the regression analysis, we can see that they are pretty small. None of the variables stand out when observing coefficients. Brand Reputation, Reputation of the Company and Brand Liking are negatively correlated to the Trust in a Brand. But out of those three, only Reputation of the Company is highly significant. This shows us that customers in Bosnia and Herzegovina have negative perception of reputation of Volkswagen, and this situation can be explained through the crisis that happened. ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book 329 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’16) Table 4.2. Results from the Regression Model 2 Variable name Coefficient p-value intercept 0.7671 * Brand Reputation -0.1281 0.116 Brand Predictability 0.1092 0.183 Brand Competence 0.0953 0.180 Reputation of the company -0.2785 *** 0.000 Company’s integrity 0.2176 *** 0.006 Brand Experience 0.0054 0.918 Similarity Between Consumer Self-Concept and Brand Personality 0.1755 *** Brand Liking -0.0458 0.525 Friends support 0.1069 ** 0.041 Brand satisfaction 0.2139 ** 0.012 Brand Loyalty 0.4342 *** 0.000 Number of observations 150 R2 0.7831 Adjusted R2 0.7658 Source: Authors own calculation 0.067 0.002 Company Integrity, Similarity between Consumer and Brand, and Brand Loyalty are variables are proven to be significant at 1% significance level. Those variables are all positively related to the Trust in Brand, thus we can conclude that loyal customers trust Volkswagen no matter what, and that it is highly important for customers to perceive Volkswagen brand in the same way they perceive themselves. Satisfaction with the brand and Friends support are significant variables at 5% significance level. Thus, it is shown that all the good word of mouth that people in Bosnia are spreading about the Volkswagen is highly affecting Trust in Volkswagen that customers have. Also, the satisfaction with the brand used is significantly affecting whether customers in Bosnia and Herzegovina will trust Volkswagen company or not. The variables were also checked for multicolinearity, since there can be correlation due to the combined effect of independent variables. Multicollinearity exists when two or more independent variables used in the regression are correlated (Lau & Lee, 1999). If a high degree of correlation exists, it is then difficult to determine the contribution of each independent variable, because their effects are confounded (Lau & Lee, 1999). Since the multicollinearity may arise due to the combined effect of two or more independent variables, a common measure for assessing pairwise and multiple variable collinearity is the variance inflow factor (VIF), which tells us the degree to which each independent variable is explained by the others (Lau & Lee, 1999). The variables were checked for multicolinearity, since there can be correlation due to the combined effect of independent variables. Results of VIF are shown in table below, since the cutoff threshold is 10, no variable needs to be cut off. Table 4.3. VIF analysis results Variable name alpha Brand Reputation 0.9417 Brand Predictability 0.9367 Brand Competence 0.9349 Reputation of the company 0.9406 Motives of the company 0.9429 330 ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book �Regional Economic Development: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Company’s integrity 0.9354 Brand Experience 0.9411 Similarity Between Consumer Self-Concept and Brand Personality 0.9396 Brand Liking 0.9358 Friends support 0.9384 Brand satisfaction 0.9366 Trust in brand 0.9349 Brand Loyalty 0.9344 Source: Authors own calculation Conclusion The brand loyalty cannot be achieved easily, but it can be destroyed in a minute. Still, creating strong brands and developing emotional attachment of brand with customers, can decrease help companies not just for competition, but also in time of crisis. The value of loyal customers is that they stay with the company in the time of crisis. Volkswagen company had crisis in September 2015, many of their customers felt betrayed and their reputation was harmed on a global level. Still, there will always be customers who not only stick to the Volkswagen brand but also defend it damaging other brands on the market. On Bosnian market Volkswagen has deep history and many customers who developed emotional connection with the brand. The reputation of Volkswagen on this market is very high, which can prevent customers from switching to another brand. We found that trust in brand is positively related to brand loyalty, discovering that Bosnian customers are loyal to Volkswagen. This can be significant for Volkswagen in their attempt to repair the situation after the crisis. Loyal customers, who are not affected by the crisis, should be recognized by Volkswagen and rewarded. Rebuilding the trust with consumers, whose loyalty was affected by the crisis, should be priority of Volkswagen. As shown previously brand loyalty plays very important role in todays’ market. Every company should pay much attention in order to create and keep loyal customers. According to our analysis the company reputation is disturbed very much, and people are questioning real motives of the company. It is shown that people in Bosnia and Herzegovina are still loyal to Volkswagen brand, they trust it a lot, but for Volkswagenas a group, the reputation has been disturbed. Those results show that market of Bosnia and Herzegovina was affected by the crisis in September, but that there are many people who would defend Volkswagen, and who are loyal to it still. Studies like this can be done in other countries as well, helping Volkswagen to rebuild trust in customers who were affected by this crisis. Further research could study trust in a brand over time to discover how brand, company and consumer-brand characteristics influenced consumers’ trust before and after the crisis, so the effects of the crisis could be stated. Additionally, new, more current methods can be applied, since the method of Lau and Lee (1999) is starting to outdate slowly. As another methodology suggestion, the panel data of countries affected by the crisis can be analyzed, since just one country cannot explain real situation on the market, especially if it is small market as Bosnian market is. ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book 331 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’16) References • Reuters. (2008, August 04). Retrieved May 01, 2016, from Volkswagen to Move Slovakia line to Bosnia: http://www.reuters.com/article/volkswagen-bosnia-idUS L428502420080804#z9G7mQDMxv3HCZlH.99 • Aaker, D. A. (1991). Managing Brand Equity: Capitalizing on the Value of a Brand Name. NY: Free Press. • Banks, S. (1968). The Relationships of Brand Preference to Brand Purchase. Perspectives in Consumer Behavior, 131-144. • Brown, G. H. (1952). Brand Loyalty-Fact or Fiction. Advertising Age, 52-55. • Dick, A. S., & Basu, K. (1994). Customer loyalty: toward an integrated conceptual framework. Journal of the academy of marketing science, 99-113. • Gommans, M., Krishnan, K. S., & Scheffold, K. B. (2001). From Brand Loyalty to E-Loyalty: A Conceptual Framework. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 3(1), 45-58. • Griffin, J. (1995). Customer loylaty: How to earn it and how to keep it. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publisher. • Haghkhah, A., Hamid, A., Ben, A. B., Ebrahimpour, A., Roghanian, P., & Gheysari, H. (2013). Commitment and Customer Loyalty in Business-to-Business Context. European Journal of Business and Management, 5(19). • Hotten, R. (2015, December 10). Volkswagen: The scandal explained. Retrieved April 20, 2016, from BBC: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34324772 • Kay, M. J. (2006). Strong brands and corporate brands. European Journal of Marketing, 40(7/8), 742-760. • Lau, G. T., & Lee, S. H. (1999). Cunsumers’ Trust in a Brand and the Link to Brand Loyalty. Journal of Market-Focused Management, 4(4), 341-370. • Murphy, A. (2015). 2015 Global 2000: The World’s Biggest Auto Companies. Retrieved 05 01, 2016, from Forbes.com: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ andreamurphy/2015/05/06/2015-global-2000-the-worlds-biggest-autocompanies/#419879a76e48 • Oliver, R. L. (1999). Whence Consumer Loyalty? Journal of Marketing, 63, 33-44. • Quester, P. G., Pettigrew, S., Kopanidis, F., Hill, S. R., & Hawkins, D. I. (2014). Consumer Behaviour: Implications for Marketing Strategy (7th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill Education. • Quester, P., & Lim, A. I. (2003). Product involvement/ brand loyalty: is there a link? Journal of Product and Brand Management, 22-38. • Rauyruen, P., & Miller, K. E. (2007). Relationship quality as a predictor of B2B customer loyalty. Journal of Business Research, 60, 21-21. • Roustasekehravani, A., Abdul Hamid, A., Haghkhah, A., & Pooladireishahri, M. (2014). Do Brand Personality Really Enhance Satisfaction and Loyalty Toward Brand? A Review of Theory and Empirical Research. European Journal of Business and Management, 6(25), 173-184. • Topham, G., Clarke, S., Levett, C., Scruton, P., & Fidler, M. (2015, September 23). The Volkswagen emission scandal explained. Retrieved April 20, 2016, from The Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/sep/23/ volkswagen-emissions-scandal-explained-diesel-cars • Volkswagen official page. (n.d.). Retrieved May 01, 2016, from Product world: http://en.volkswagen.com/en.html • Worchel, P. (1979). Trust and distrust. In W.G. Austin and S. Worchel (Eds.). The social psychology of intergroup relations. 332 ICESoS 2016 - Proceedings Book � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3319 Title A name given to the resource BRAND LOYALTY IN THE TIME OF CRISIS CASE OF VOLKSWAGEN IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Author Author Dinarevic, Damir Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: In this study the customers’ loyalty of company Volkswagen will be discussed. The issue is very attractive, since the company was facing crisis being accused for software cheats on pollution checkouts. Since they are present in Bosnia and Herzegovina for many years, and some parts were produced on this area, it is suitable that market of Bosnia would be researched to check how strong loyalty of customers is. The survey was created in order to collect data. In three parts of capital city Sarajevo (Sarajevo City Center, Grand Center and Old Town) people were randomly surveyed. Regression analysis was done, where trust in brand was dependent variable. We found that trust in brand is positively related to brand loyalty, discovering that Bosnian customers are loyal to Volkswagen. Studies like this can be done in other countries as well, helping Volkswagen to rebuild trust in customers who were affected by this crisis Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2016 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3608 Title A name given to the resource BRAND LOYALTY IN THE TIME OF CRISIS: PERCEPTIONS OF VOLKSWAGEN BY CUSTOMERS IN SARAJEVO Author Author Dinarevic, Damir Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study the customers’ loyalty of company Volkswagen will be discussed. The issue is very attractive, since the company was facing crisis being accused for software cheats on pollution checkouts. Since they are present in Bosnia and Herzegovina for many years, and some parts were produced on this area, it is suitable that market of Bosnia, and especially market of Sarajevo, would be researched to check how strong loyalty of customers is. The survey was created in order to collect data. In three parts of capital city Sarajevo (Sarajevo City Center, Grand Center and Old Town) people were randomly surveyed. Regression analysis was done, where trust in brand was dependent variable. We found that trust in brand is positively related to brand loyalty, discovering that customers in Sarajevo are loyal to Volkswagen. Studies like this can be done in other countries as well, helping Volkswagen to rebuild trust in customers who were affected by this crisis. Keywords: Customer Loyalty, Brand Loyalty, Volkswagen, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2016 Keywords Keywords. Thesis NonPeerReviewed HF Commerce https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ab02e598dfb2ee29348c9c70c64c0d1e.pdf e70675f50db7ff35f164a1b79c305c6a PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Branding B&H - Sarajevo as a Touristic Destination Alen Husukid International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina alenhusukic@hotmail.com At a time when B&H is on the one of the lowest levels of development in Europe, and when most of economy branches are undeveloped, it is very hard to say what should be considered as starter of economic development. We decided to consider tourism sector as a field that could contribute the most, and as a field that has biggest chances and opportunities to increase economic well-being of people in B&H. Tourism industry is one of the most important industries in the world, especially in Europe. Its contribution to total worlds GDP is about 7,5%, engages more than 75.000 employees that is about 7% of total world employment, more than 750 millions of international tourists arrive all around the world in 2011 and all these indicators increase every year. B&H has all conditions to become tourism oriented European country. It is found in heart of Europe, on intersection of important communication and transportation roads. It has all necessary natural and social resources, favorable climate, geographic and geomorphologic conditions, to have good developed tourism sector. But for progress of any branch of economy good strategy and clear goals must be defined. In this research branding of BiH / Sarajevo will be taken as starting point of this progress. Keywords: Brand, Destination Branding, Image, Globalization, GDP. 29 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/9b71484c7fc8f5b6cd0cc284817fb5ee.docx 2d54aaf554abf564c96a9f62534b83cb https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/800a83a14dd6481e8e3650ad32a3772f.pdf a21fb6148b9ee484ba93890404363a3b PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Branding B&H - Sarajevo as a Touristic Destination Alen Husukić International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina alenhusukic@hotmail.com Erkan Ilgun International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina aeilgun@ibu.edu.ba Abstract At a time when BiH is on the one of the lowest levels of development in Europe, and when most of economy branches are undeveloped, it is very hard to say what should be considered as starter of economic development. But I decided to consider tourism sector as a field that could contribute the most, and as a field that has biggest chances and opportunities to increase economic well-being of people in BiH. Tourism industry is one of the most important industries in the world, especially in Europe. Its contribution to total worlds GDP is about 7,5%, engages more than 75.000 employees that is about 7% of total world employment, more than 750 millions of international tourists arrive all around the world in 2011 and all these indicators increase every year. BiH has all conditions to become tourism oriented European country. It is found in heart of Europe, on intersection of important communication and transportation roads. It has all necessary natural and social resources, favorable climate, geographic and geomorphologic conditions, to have good developed tourism sector. But for progress of any branch of economy good strategy and clear goals must be defined. In this research branding of BiH / Sarajevo will be taken as starting point of this progress. Keywords: Brand, destination branding, image, globalization, GDP. Introductıon “Places are products whose identities and values must be designed and marketed” (Kotler, 1999). Branding of the countries, cities, regions or places is very popular in marketing science during the last two or three decades. One of the most important reasons why destination branding became popular all around the world is very high level of competition between cities as a touristic destination. Because of globalization phenomena every place can become competitive and attract tourists, so this competition forced marketers to find out new strategies and models for attraction of the tourists. Main goal of branding is to create an unique and distinctive concept to identify the brands higher value in relation to the competitors.1 Destination branding is not very different from product or service branding, but its difference lies in the manner of crating the brand concept, revealing a common link in brand strategy when it comes to success. Many 1 Juan A. Garcia, Mar Gomez, Arthuro Molina, “A destination-branding model: An empirical analysis based on stakeholders”, University of Castila La Mancha, Spain, 2012, page 647. 29 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo authors and economy experts tried to explain concept of destination branding. All of them described factors that are crucial for crating brand of the place. Brand identity and destination image are two important indicators for a successful destination branding. Destination image is critical to crate the positive and recognizable brand identity.2 Existing of strong relationship between destination image and satisfaction of tourists shows high importance of these two variables. Also brand identity, as a result of destination image can be part of the crating satisfaction of the visitors. It is sure that branding is important part of the marketing and can contribute a lot to reach goal, for all products, services or destinations. Functions of branding can be expressed by level of identification and differentiation. “Identification can be defined as a level of reorganization of the product or brand by consumers, while differentiation is creation or demonstration of unique characteristics in a company's products or brands compared to those of its competitors.”3Brand association is one more important element in process of branding a destination. It influences consumer, or tourist, evaluation toward the brand or brand choice. “Perceptions about a brand are reflections of the brand associations held in consumer memory”.4 This element is considered as one of the most important parts of creating brand image. Brand associations are classified into three major parts: attributes, benefits and attitudes. According to Keller (1999), attributes are those descriptive features that characterize a brand. “In other words, an attribute is what a consumer thinks the brand is or has to offer and what is involved with its purchase or consumption. The benefits that may occur are the personal value consumers associate with the brand attributes in the form of functional, symbolic, experiential attachments. That is, what consumers think the brand can do for them? Brand attitudes are consumers’ overall evaluations of the brand and are the basis for consumer behavior (e.g., brand choice).”5To crate successful brand and image of the destination, different approaches can be used. Some of them are: creating of cultural mega events, heritage promotion or construction of iconic buildings. “Image of destination is also influenced by cognitive and affective factors. Cognitive evaluation refers to beliefs and knowledge about an object whereas affective evaluation refers to feelings about the object.”6 It can be concluded that, for the good branding of the destination, accommodation quality, scenic view, friendly people, natural and social resources are not enough. Place needs to be unique and different from other places, to be selected as a final destination. 1. DESTINATION BRANDING MODELS Because of its importance and contribution to economic development many cities developed strategy for branding of own places, events or manifestations. Some of them did it in a good way and sow benefits, but a lot of these cities failed in their mission. In literature it is possible to find several theoretical models for this topic, but their implementation into practice is harder part. Reasons for failure are different. Considering 2 Hailin Qu, Lisa Hyunjung Kim , Holly Hyunjung, „A model of destination branding:Integrating the concept of the branding and destination image“, Jeonju University Srepublic of Corea, 2011, page 466. 3 Differentiation – definition, Retrieved on February 3 2013, from http://en.mimi.hu/marketingweb/differentiation.html 4 Keller, K.L. (2003). „Strategic Brand Management.“, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. 5 Hailin Qu, Lisa Hyunjung Kim , Holly Hyunjung, „A model of destination branding:Integrating the concept of the branding and destination image“, Jeonju University Srepublic of Corea, 2011, page 467. 6 Hailin Qu, Lisa Hyunjung Kim , Holly Hyunjung, „A model of destination branding:Integrating the concept of the branding and destination image“, Jeonju University Srepublic of Corea, 2011, page 467. 30 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo BiH or Sarajevo as an advantageous region for branding, it would be good idea to compare it with branded destinations from the past. Bad examples are also useful to see mistakes and avoid them, or change the strategy. 1.1. Examples of Bad City Branding Berlin Since 1990, its planners, business leaders, and government officials made a strategy for branding of Berlin. They wanted to use city’s painful history to create new, better image of the city – city that is good for everyone. Although Berlin is center of the German culture, one of the most progressive cities in Europe, place of very famous music and film fairs, it didn’t help to create a good image and good brand of the city.7 High unemployment level and repositioning itself by building positive image on a negative past are unbridgeable barriers for branding of Berlin. City with all these advantages must change its strategy and start rebranding process. Beijing Beijing has won the race for hosting the Olympic Games in 2008 and authorities in the city tried to use this to brand Beijing. The process of Beijing branding involved promotion of the positive qualities of the city and a physical reconstruction of the city. It tried to present a cultural, modern, cosmopolitan, and people-based city. The biggest mistake during the process of Beijing branding was mismatch of government and people. View of the authorities and view of the citizens and tourists about the city, were very different, so they couldn’t overcome these differences. Also they wanted to see results of the branding very fast, but branding is long-term process. Other examples of bad branding of the cities are: - - 1.2. London – wrong strategy, poorly managed transport and unfocused brand values; Belfast – logo without clear idea and several branding strategy mistakes; Jerusalem – brand cannot be everything for everyone, what is tried to do with this city; Toronto – “Toronto Unlimited” campaign was not successful as it was expected. Id didn’t become 24-hour city; some other cities (Vancouver, New York, Las Vegas) had better results with similar ideas. Tourism and business of Toronto didn’t have big progress. Birmingham and Bristol are other cities in Great Britain that tried to become world’s brand, but they are still in shadow of Manchester, Leeds, and Liverpool. Examples of good city branding Smile! You are in Spain Colombia is passion! I Love NY! Oklahoma Native America! 7 Julia Winfield-Pfefferkorn, “The branding of cities – Exploring city branding and importance of brand image”, Syracuse University.August 2005, page 79. 31 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Paris – City of light! All these maintained slogans are part of successful campaigns and branding missions of some cities or countries. If London’s or Belfast’s slogans were part of bad strategies, these ones are piece of successful and well done city/country brandings. New York In 1970, the State of New York decided to promote tourism to help offset a recession, and asked the Ad Agency Wells, Rich and Greene, and graphic artist Milton Glaser to develop a campaign, and the “I Love NY” slogan was created along with the campaign which is still one of the most recognized and successful campaigns in the history of great emotional branding.8 Authorities and people responsible for this mission had a clear directions and goals. On the beginning New York was presented as a city of different people that are able to reach their dreams. During 3 or 4 decades New York changed a lot because of the campaign. It was the place with very high housing costs, crime rate and density of living during 1970s and 1980s. A lot of citizens escaped from there. But during 1990s and after, it became one of the cities with the highest rate of immigration. Since 1990s it has added more than 685.000 people, which was the highest percentage of large cities during that period.9 Paris City with a very long history and starting point of some of the most important events happened in the past, is still world’s important destination. Six attractions in Paris draw more than 25 million visitors yearly. Disneyland in Paris, the Eiffel Tower and the Louvre are some of the most visited places in the world.10 Paris is European cultural and communication center, with famous fashion and manufacturing of luxury articles. 11 One of the cities with income mostly generated from tourism industry, and world tourism leading city. It was not difficult for city’s authorities to decide on branding Paris. The city had all qualities to become a brand. Unique culture, history, attractions and personality make Paris one of the most distinctive city brands in the World. Important events that were organized and incorporated in branding strategy helped in progress of the city. Football World Cup from 1998 was the most visited football manifestation in history. Paris fashion week and similar events attract thousands of tourists every year. Other examples for good and successful branding strategy for the city branding are: - Oklahoma – successful changing image of the city caused financial support and good strategy;12 8 Landa, Robin. “Advertising by Design, Creating Visual Communications with Graphic Impact”John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey, 2004, page 28. 9 Julia Winfield-Pfefferkorn, “The branding of cities – Exploring city branding and importance of brand image”, Syracuse University. August 2005, page 35. 10 Julia Winfield-Pfefferkorn, “The branding of cities – Exploring city branding and importance of brand image”, Syracuse University.August 2005, page 44. 11 Phillip’s “Paris World Encyclopedia”, 2004, page 176. 12 Hailin Qu, Lisa Hyunjung Kim, Holly Hyunjung, “A model of destination branding: Integrating the concepts of the branding and destination image, Jeonju University, Republic of Korea 32 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo - - Sydney – Olympics 2000 were used in a good way. Progress in tourism, business and development of whole city could start. San Francisco – started a very successful “Only in San Francisco” city branding campaign. Strategy was good, sufficient funds were provided for advertising and result was economy and tourism growth. Liverpool – the city offers sense of real Britain culture, with many bars and clubs, many financial centers and dramatic architecture. Offers something to everyone. 2. POSIBLE OPTIONS FOR BIH / SARAJEVO BRANGING From the examples analyzed before, their success and fails, good strategy for Sarajevo branding could be made. BiH as a country and its capital city Sarajevo, have all qualities and conditions for becoming one of the most famous country or city in region and Europe. Its multiculturalism, history, architecture, events and infrastructure are something that most cities in Europe don’t have. Most of them aspire to have similar characteristics as Sarajevo and BiH already have. It is only necessary to use all these qualities and results would be seen. Sarajevo has a very long history. The biggest world’s empires, such as Ottoman (1463 1878) and Austria-Hungarian (1878-1918)13, left the stamp in BiH and Sarajevo. Buildings from these periods are still found and used as an important places in the city. Period before Ottomans was also very turbulent and active. A lot of castles and old houses were built during the period of Medieval Bosnia (1180 - 1463). Some of them are renovated and became museums. After the Austria-Hungarian monarchy, the country of South Slavs was established. It was called Republic of Yugoslavia. Some of the most important events from I and II World War happened in BiH and Sarajevo. Austrian archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sofia were killed on Latin bridge in Sarajevo in 1914. That was one of the reasons why I World War started. Sarajevo’s museum was established and dedicated to this event, with the pictures, weapon and other materials originally preserved from the assassination. Sarajevo Winter Olympic Games from 1984 were the best organized and visited games in history of the Olympics until that year. Three mountains in the city got infrastructure for the winter Olympic sports, several sport halls were made and all of these were destroyed during the war 92-95. This war is another important event for BiH, Europe and whole world that occurred in BiH. All these important elements could be used for creating brand of BiH or Sarajevo. Although BiH and its capital city have all these positive conditions, this process of branding would be very hard. There are few reasons why. First and maybe the most important is bad image of the country in the world. That image was created during the last war. Most of the people when heard word Bosnia or Sarajevo think about the war and all bad thinks happened then. It is said that branding process starts with the creating good image of the product in the mind of customers. So this point is very negative and should be changed. Second, all infrastructure must be renewed or build again. Transportation in the city and in the country is very old and residual. Winter sport infrastructure on the mountains is destroyed and unused. It means a lot of money and financial support is 13 Stephen E. Sachs, “Sarajevo: A Crossroads in History”, 1994, Junior disunion. 33 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo needed to start the process, what also could be a huge problem and in this time unfortunately impossible. There are also some other problems, but these two are the biggest and the most important. Model I – Sarajevo – European city of multiculturalism and coexistence of people with different religions First possible solution for Sarajevo branding has many advantages. The city has all necessary resources. It is already multicultural place with all its advantages and disadvantages. Other important elements are buildings from several different periods, rising in the city as evidence of multiculturalism. More than 150 mosques, the most important places built during the Ottoman period, evidence of Islam and existence of Muslims. At the same time, a lot of catholic and orthodox churches rising at same places as mosques are rising. Jewish temples are also important buildings found in Sarajevo. Because of this Sarajevo is called “European Jerusalem”. To use this model, good advertising strategy must be developed. Advertising and marketing are very expensive, but considering existence of all other resources, this could be the only expense. Of course as we mentioned before, image of the city should be changed and transportation infrastructure must be renewed. Model II – Sarajevo – Olympic city Idea about revival Olympic Games spirit already exist, but wrong strategy and reasons for doing this are used. Politics take place in the idea and there are not funds that could be enough to have success in this mission. Generally idea is good and there are good chances to make brand of Sarajevo based on this. But there are crucial things that should be done, and it would be very expensive process. All infrastructures from the Olympic Games must be renovated, because it was destroyed during the war. Process of branding Sarajevo as Olympic city would be very long. To do this a lot of financial support, good marketing strategy, support from the authorities and participation of all citizens must take place in the project. Model III – Sarajevo – European center of culture, Sarajevo Film Festival (SFF) Sarajevo Film Festival is already very important and famous event in the region and Europe. Many world famous stars visited this manifestations and it has all qualities to become leading event in the region. It is the reason why thousands of tourists come to Sarajevo during July and August. Organization of SFF started in 1995 and became traditional. It had a lot of success during the last years and attracts many visitors from the Europe, but with the financial support and enthusiasm of city authorities it could be much more then it is now. One of the disadvantages for this event is lack of accommodation capacities and infrastructure in city of Sarajevo. In next few years Sarajevo is planning to organize few very important manifestations and one of them is cultural event in 2014 called “Sarajevo, the bridge of cultures”.14 It is expected that city will host more tourists than 1984, for Olympic Games, and this could be chance for renewing and building of new tourism infrastructures. 14 Sarajevo, the bridge of cultures 2014“, retriewed 21th March 2013from http://www.klix.ba/vijesti/bih/izsarajeva-2014-godine-poruke-mira/120916032 34 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Model IV – BiH – See Olympic Mountains, nature, sea and different civilizations on one place This model of branding BiH, not only Sarajevo, could have the most contribution for economy. As it is described before, all necessary resources exist, but BiH doesn’t use all of them. Advantages for BiH are resources that are suitable for both winter and summer tourism. In the same time country owns mountains and sea and lakes, which are very important part of tourism. Disadvantage and threat for this model of BiH branding is competition. Most of the neighbor countries such as Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro, are tourism developed countries. They have good offerings and in this moment these countries are more developed in tourism sense than BiH is. They all have good strategies and started to implement them, so BiH as a country must think about something different and must invest much more to become competitive with them. This model could have the biggest direct and indirect influence on whole economy, and could contribute to increasing of well being of BiH citizens. 3. SURVEY To support and proof important statements from this paper the survey was conducted. As it is maintained before, image of the country or place is important for its branding. There are also few elements that must be created for successful branding, such as: brand awareness, brand loyalty, brand recognition, positive brand feeling and perceived quality. To analyze these elements questionnaire with the appropriate questions was delivered to the respondents. The data for this study were gathered through mail questionnaires that were distributed to respondents on internet and directly, from February 15th to March 23th 2013. Answers on internet were collected by docs.google.com, and then all responds were statistically analyzed in SPSS program. The profile of respondents is shown in Table 1. The total respondents for this study are 335, but 32 of them are eliminated because of incomplete responds, so final sample size is 303. The study sample comprises respondents who vary on such characteristics as gender, age, marital status, education level, monthly income, nationality (BiH, UK, Germany, Italy, Serbia, Croatia and Turkey) and living area. 35 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 1.Profile of Respondents of Destination Branding Survey Item Gender Description Male Female 15 – 25 26 – 35 36 – 55 55+ BiH Other Single Married (children) Married(No children) Divorced High school University Graduate school Other 0€ 0 – 350 € 350 – 550 € 550 – 1000 € 1000 €+ Age Nationality Marital status Education Monthly income How travel often you Average days stayed on the trip Once a year Twice a year More than 2 times Frequency 143 160 165 98 26 14 141 162 221 64 14 4 70 143 81 9 45 51 102 102 3 155 113 35 Percentage (%) 47.2 52.8 54.5 32.3 8.6 4.6 46.5 53.5 72.9 21.1 4.6 1.3 23.1 47.2 26.7 3.0 14.9 16.8 33.7 33.7 1.0 51.2 37.3 11.6 1–3 4–7 8 – 14 14+ 28 196 56 23 9.2 64.7 18.5 7.6 Questionnaire was composed of three different types of questions: Yes/No questions, scale questions (from very high to very low) and multiple choice questions. Some of information that we got by the questionnaire are used for descriptive analyses, such as data from table 1. Other important piece of survey was in relation between the factors and mutual influence on each other. For this part correlation analyses were used. 3.1. Results According to theoretical models of A. Friedman (2012), Risitano (2011) and M. Yasin (2007) destination brand depends on several different variables, but for this research 6 of them are chosen, and these are: brand recognition, brand awareness, image, brand quality, brand feeling and loyalty of the visitors. For every variable appropriate questions are composed and analyzed in statistical program, so results of the research will be described in the next few paragraphs. 3.1.1. Brand recognition 36 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo In this part it was necessary to see level of knowledge of tourists about BiH. The main question was how familiar with BiH are they. 63,7% of them answered that they know a lot about the country, 23,8% said they are familiar with the country, while less than 10% said they only heard about BiH from the friends. To support these answers few basic questions about BiH were structured and answers were satisfying. The respondents had 97,7% correct answers for question “where is BiH located”. More than 94% knew what religion of people live in BiH is. 3.1.2. Brand awareness For brand awareness two main indicators are very important. First is perceptual of foreign tourists that knew the destination before they travel. More than 60% knew the destination and were familiar with it, while other read about the country and learned from the friends. Second indicator was the typology of communication channels trough which tourists knew the destination. The most of the visitors learned about BiH on the internet (46%), heard from the friends (34%), while other`s source of information were TV, newspaper and other sources. 3.1.3. Brand feelings and loyalty While testing feeling and loyalty of tourists we wanted to know their opinion about the country. Most of the respondents, doesn’t matter if they visited BiH or heard about friends that visited, have positive feeling about BiH. At the same time large percentage (80,1%) of them like or respect the country. Table 2. Tourists Opinion About Bih / Sarajevo Frequenc y Percent 38 I visited, and I have positive feeling 27,5 5 I visited, and I have negative 3,6 feeling 41 My friend visited, and has positive 29,7 feeling 7 My friend visited, and has negative 5,1 feeling 39 I read about, and have positive 28,3 feeling 8 I read about, and have negative 5,8 feeling 138 100,0 Total 3.1.4. Brand quality 37 Cumulative Percent 27.5 31.1 60.8 65.9 94.2 100.0 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Variables that are considered as important for respondent’s opinion about destination quality were factors such as accommodation, restaurants, nature, architecture and general opinion about quality of trips in BiH. 90,8% of tourists think that BiH and Sarajevo have unique architecture and more than 95% of them think that country owns beautiful nature. It is important to notice that they are very satisfied with the quality of restaurants and accommodation. 44,9% said that quality is very good, 38% good and 16,7% think that accommodation and restaurants quality is normal. Although most of the respondents that visited BiH and Sarajevo agreed accommodation and restaurants quality is satisfying, they think that prices of the same are not very high. 46,9% answered prices are normal, 19,8% think prices are very high, while 25,4% said that prices of this factor are high. 3.1.5. Brand image Brand image questions in questionnaire were related with the safeness of the country, perception of the foreign respondents about BiH and Sarajevo and general opinion in their minds. Result of 18,2% respondents that think that BiH is not a safe place, is bad for the country and contributes to a bad image. Table 3. What associates you on BiH ? War Many mosques and churches Olympic Games Sarajevo Film Festival Nature Old bridge in Mostar Međugorje Other Total Frequency 97 22 31 23 25 77 10 18 303 Percent 32.0 7.3 10.2 7.6 8.3 25.4 3.3 5.9 100.0 Cumulative Percent 32.0 39.3 49.5 57.1 65.3 90.8 94.1 100.0 Answers from table 3 are also negative for the country. The war and Old Bridge in Mostar, which is also association on the war, are two things that are the biggest associations of BiH in people`s mind. More than half of respondents choose war and Old Bridge as BiH associations. 3.1.6. Correlation analysis The correlation concept gives a mathematical value for measuring the strength of the linear relationship between two variables. It can take values from -1 to +1 with: +1 representing absolute positive linear relationship (X increases, Y increases), 0 representing no linear relationship (X and Y have no pattern), -1 representing absolute inverse relationship (as X increases, Y decreases).15 15 Zafer Konakli, „Research Methods with SPSS applications“, Sarajevo, 2012, page 99. 38 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 4. Pearson correlations RECOGNITI FEELING LOYAL QUALIT IMAGE ON S AWARENESS TY Y 1 .681** .958** .878** .865** .908** .681** 1 .708** .654** .692** .675** IMAGE RECOGNITI ON .958** .708** 1 FEELINGS ** ** .878 .654 .817** AWARENES S .865** .692** .826** LOYALTY .908** .675** .846** QUALITY **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). .817** 1 .826** .908** .846** .918** .908** .918** 1 .927** .927** 1 As it is explained before, if correlation is higher than 0, there is positive correlation between the variables. In this case, significance is 0 (0.0005) for all relationships, and there is very strong positive correlation between all variables. The strongest is between image and quality (0.908), while the weakest is between quality and recognition (0.675), but it is still strong positive correlation. CONCLUSION Through this research paper we tried to explain importance of destination branding, especially during the last 20 or 30 years, when globalization takes very important role in every business. For some it is disadvantage and threat, but for these who have successful and good defined strategy this phenomenon can be a chance and advantage. Another issue is global economic crisis, which is part of every branch during last 7 or 8 years. Influence of the crisis must be incorporated in all policies and strategies, and then its influence would be the lowest. Tourism and destination branding is one of the ways for overcoming both economy and political crisis in BiH. The country is in transition and that is another negative circumstance, but it is time to start the progress on all fields. There are many things that must be changed in BiH to have success in tourism sector. First of them is to change political atmosphere. During the last 30 years the country is in phase of economic and political stagnation, and crisis is component of all economy segments. Political instability is reason why the crisis occurs for a many years in BiH. Another result of this instability is bad organization of tourism sector. Authorities are not supporting businesses and don’t show any interest for the progress. Second element that must be changed is bad image of BiH in eyes of European people, mostly because of the war. Changing of this image could be very hard and long process, but without success in here, development of tourism is not real option. Image of destination is crucial factor in every well developed touristic place. To achieve this goal good marketing and promotion strategy must be conceived. It could be impossible in here, because of financial elements. In this situation BiH as a country is very far from progress in tourism. References 39 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Group of authors (2008), “Strategija razvoja turizma Federacije Bosne i Hercegovine za period 2008-2018”, Federal ministry of environment and tourism BiH, Sarajevo Geoffrey I. Crouch (2007),”Modeling destination competitiveness: a survey and analysis of the impact of competitiveness attributes on sustainable tourism”, Australia Hailin Qu, Lisa Hyunjung Kim , Holly Hyunjung (2011), „A model of destination branding:Integrating the concept of the branding and destination image“, Jeonju University Srepublic of Corea Jennifer Blanke and Thea Chiesa (2012), “The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2011”,World Economic Forum 2011, Geneva Jin Huh (2006), “Destination Branding as an Informational Signal and Its Influence on Satisfaction and Loyalty in the Leisure Tourism Market”, Blacksburg, Virginia Juan A. Garcia, Mar Gomez, Arthuro Molina (2012), “A destination-branding model: An empirical analysis based on stakeholders”, University of Castila La Mancha, Spain. Julia Winfield-Pfefferkorn (2005), “The branding of cities – Exploring city branding and importance of brand image”, Syracuse University. Keller, K.L. (2003). „Strategic Brand Management.“, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall. Li Zhang, Simon Xiaobin Zhao (2009), “City branding and the Olympic effect: A case study of Beijing”, Fudan University China. Landa, Robin. (2004 ), “Advertising by Design, Creating Visual Communications with Graphic Impact”John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey Nergis Aziz, Efstathios Kefallonitis and Barry A. Friedman (2012), “Turkey as a Destination Brand: Perceptions of United States Visitors”, American International Journal of Contemporary Research. Norjaya M.Y., Mohd N.N. and Osman M. (2007), “Does image of country of-origin matter to brand equity?”, Emerald Group Senija Causevic and Paul Lynch (2012), „Political (in)stability and its influence on tourism development“, Elsevier. Stephen E. Sachs (1994), “Sarajevo: A Crossroads in History”, Junior division. Zafer Konakli (2012), „Research Methods with SPSS applications“, Sarajevo 40 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1469 Title A name given to the resource Branding B&H - Sarajevo as a Touristic Destination Author Author HUSUKIC, Alen Abstract A summary of the resource. At a time when B&H is on the one of the lowest levels of development in Europe, and when most of economy branches are undeveloped, it is very hard to say what should be considered as starter of economic development. We decided to consider tourism sector as a field that could contribute the most, and as a field that has biggest chances and opportunities to increase economic well-being of people in B&H. Tourism industry is one of the most important industries in the world, especially in Europe. Its contribution to total worlds GDP is about 7,5%, engages more than 75.000 employees that is about 7% of total world employment, more than 750 millions of international tourists arrive all around the world in 2011 and all these indicators increase every year. B&H has all conditions to become tourism oriented European country. It is found in heart of Europe, on intersection of important communication and transportation roads. It has all necessary natural and social resources, favorable climate, geographic and geomorphologic conditions, to have good developed tourism sector. But for progress of any branch of economy good strategy and clear goals must be defined. In this research branding of BiH / Sarajevo will be taken as starting point of this progress. Keywords: Brand, Destination Branding, Image, Globalization, GDP. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3349 Title A name given to the resource BREAKING FRAME IN MAKING HUMOR - ON THE DISCOURSE OF SATIRE Author Author Maslo, Adi Abstract A summary of the resource. The paper focuses on a thoroughly pervasive logical and linguistic device – framing. We will see how framing is performed in the discourse of satire and how it contributes to the humorous effect thereof. The analysis will be done on a very specific satiric corpus i.e. The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Throughout the end of the paper it will be shown how humor arises with the breaking of frames (Goffman, 1974), and consequently leads to successful satire. Stemming from the very nature of the corpus in question, a latenight TV show, three instances of breaking frame were determined: linguistic, logical, and visual. Keywords: frame, breaking frame, satire, cognitive linguistics, GTVH, humor research, The Daily Show with Jon Stewart Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2016 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/97b14f377def86265b955536eb7e3dcc.pdf 2aaac6e7628ba9d72f50b778697d5d31 PDF Text Text Yüzbaşıoğlu, S., Varol, Ö., 2004. A new Autumn-flowering Crocus from SW Turkey. –The Plantsman, New Series, Vol. 3, Part 2:104-106. Breath Analysis of Hepatic Patients Using Electronic Nose Özgür Örnek International Burch University, Department of Information Technology E-mail: oornek@ibu.edu.ba Abstract Hepatic coma, also known as hepatic encephalopathy, is loss of consciousness as a result of liver failure. Hepatic coma represents the final stage of hepatic encephalopathy - grade IV, a progressive brain dysfunction due to accumulation of substances toxic to the brain. Hepatic coma can rapidly progress and may ultimately lead to death. Therefore, early diagonosis of hepatic coma is consirerably crucial for patients‘ life. If not, patients with hepatic coma can die in few days. In this study, I have proposed to overview early diagnosis of hepatic encephalopathy by breath analysis using electronic noses which are regarded as rapid, inexpensive way of gas detection. Keywords: Electronic nose, hepatic coma, sensor arrays, neural Networks. 1.INTRODUCTION Hepatic coma is loss of consciousness as a result of liver failure. The brain is poisoned by toxic substances due to failure of the liver functionality. The toxic substances are generated after accumulation of some byproducts of metabolism in the blood. The severity of encephalopathy is subdivided into four grades. Grade I and II are subtle symptom of brain. In grade III, significant brain damage occurs. Hepatic coma represents the final grade - grade IV of the brain dysfunction that toxic substances are collected in the brain. At this stage, the entire brain is damaged and the patient with hepatic failure becomes unconscious and is unable to respond to painful stimuli (hepatic coma). Ultimately, it may cause death. [1] Studies have revealed that in patients with advanced stages of encephalopathy resulting froim chronic liver failure, ammonia, regarded as toxic substance, levels in the brain may rise more than twentyfold [2]. Blood tests show an increase in ammonia levels, which is a marker the degree of accumulation of toxins in the brain as well. For the essence of patients health, early diagnosis of hepatic coma is vital. If early intervention is not committed, hepatic encephalopathy can rapidly progress and become an acute emergency condition regarded as coma causing death in a few days. Current methods of diagnosis of the hepatic coma such as computed tomography scans are time-consuming, expensive, and involve invasive confirmation. The needs of rapid and 363 �inexpensive methods have led researchers to find new techniques on the hepatic coma symptoms. Electronic nose is a device formed by an array of sensors which is capable of highly sensitive for detecting and identifyig VOC‘s. Various studies have been conducted to identify various diseases using electronic nose with common pattern recognition algorithms. This study suggested that an electronic nose would detect and identify hepatic encephalopathy at advanced grades on the basis of the complex smellprints of numerous VOC‘s in exhaled breath from patients with hepatic encephalopathy The breath of a healthy person gives a different pattern than that of a one with failure. This difference could be detected and classified by the electronic nose and an appropriate pattern classification algorithm such as Neural Network and SVM. The main objective of this paper is to suggest that it is possible to recognize individuals affected by advanced stage of hepatic encephalopathy called hepatic coma, analyzing the olfactory signal of their breath by the use of an electronic nose with an appropriate classification algorithm. 2.VOC’s as a Biomarker of Certain Diseases Since 1971, it has been well known that hundreds of VOCs are present in the human breath [3], and that some of these compounds are biomarkers or indicators with certain diseases. Metabolic changes within hepatic failure can lead to changes in the production of different volatile organic compounds [4] which may be detected in the samples of exhaled breath. Over the last two decades, many studies on breath analysis by combined gas chromatography–mass spectroscopy (GC–MS) have been conducted that several hundreds of different compounds in human breath was found. They reported that some volatile compounds in the breath are associated with certain diseases. For example, in the breath of patients with liver cirrhosis mercaptans and aliphatic acids were identified[5] while in the breath of uremic patients dimethyl- and trimethylamine were found [6]. Similarly, ammonia, manganase and mercaptans quantity in the blood are accepted as biomarkers of hepatic coma or hepatic failure. In addition, alkanes are present in the lung cancer and formaldehyde in the breast cancer; the presence of isoprene in human breath is correlated to blood cholesterol levels; and patients with Type 1 diabetes have excess acetone in their breath. [7] 3.The VOCs in the patients with liver disease Dimethyl sulfide, acetone, 2-pentanone and 2-butanone are considerably high level in the breath of liver patients. These chemical compounds are the reason of bad smell of the breath. Sulfur containing compounds are produced by disfunctioned metabolism of sulfur containing amino acids in the transamination body system. Normally, the amount of these compounds in blood and alveolar breath are low. Dysfunction of liver increases the level of these compounds, which have a characteristic smell, like the smell of rotten cabbage. The increased levels of the ketones acetone, 2-pentanone and 2-butanone are regarded to be the result of hepatic insuline resistance, a common disorder in patients with hepatic steatosis and end stage liver disease. Insuline resistance leads to an increase of triglycerides and free fatty acids and ketones are formed during lipolysis. Moreover, in a study with rats, the 364 �amounts of these compounds increase because of the inhibition of certain enzymes in the liver.[8] The correlation between a biomarker and a specific disease is often multi-fold. A breath compound can be a biomarker of about more than one disease or metabolic-disorder. And one particular disease or metabolic disorder can be identified by more than one chemical compounds. Table 1 shows correlation certain diseases and compounds. Table 1. 35 established biomarkers and their physiological symptoms.[7] Biomarkers Metabolic Disorders / Diseases Acetone (OC(CH3)2) Lung cancer, diabetes, dietary fat losses, congestive heart failure, brain seizure Acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) Alcoholism, liver related diseases, lung cancer Ammonia (NH3) Renal diseases, asthma Butane (C4H10) Tumor marker in lung cancer Carbon monoxide (CO) Oxidative anaemias Carbon disulphide (CS2) Schizophrenia, coronary, and artery diseases Carbon dioxide (CO2) (13C-Isotopes) Oxidative stress Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) Liver related diseases Ethane (C2H6) Vitamin E deficiency in children, lipid peroxidation, oxidative stress Ethanol (C2H5OH) Production of gut bacteria Ethylene (C2H4) Lipid peroxidation, ultra violet radiation damage of skin 365 stress, respiratory infection, �Hydrogen (H2) Indigestion in infants, intestinal upset, colonic fermentation H/D isotope Body water Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) Asthma Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) Pseudomonas aeruginosa in children affected with cystic fibrosis 8-Isoprostane Oxidative stress Isoprene Blood cholesterol Methane (CH4) Intestinal problems, colonic fermentation Methanethiol (CH3SH) Halitosis Methanol (CH3OH) Nervous system disorder Methylated amines Protein metabolism in body Methyl nitrate (CH3NO3) Hyperglycemia in Type 1 diabetes Nitrogen monoxide (NO) Asthma, bronchiectasis, rhinitis, lung diseases Nitrotyrosine (C9H10N2O5) Asthma Oxygen (O2) Respiration Pentane (C5H12) Peroxidation of lipids, liver diseases, schizophrenia, breast cancer, rheumatoid arthritis Pyridine (C5H5N) Periodontal disease Sulfur compounds Hepatic diseases and malordor, lung cancer hypertension, Hydrocarbons (Toulene (C6H5CH3), Benzene (C6H6), Heptane (C7H16), Lipid peroxidation, lung cancer, oxidative Decane (C10H22), Styrene (C8H8), stress, airway inflammation Octane (C8H18), Pentamethylheptane (C12H26)) 366 �4.Electronic Nose An electronic nose is an instrument which is composed of an array of electro chemical sensors with partial specificity and an appropriate pattern recognition system, is able to detect and identify simple or complex odors. Electronic noses have been mainly used for quality control applications in the food, beverage, and cosmetics industries, military, and medical applications. As an odor is presented to the electronic nose, certain sensors are sensitive to the odor; therefore they respond to certain volatile componds. This combination of varied responses from the array of sensors constitutes the characteristic of the particular applied odors. After presence of analyte the output of the odor sensors is extracted, amplified, filtered, and converted into digital form by transducion electronics. Compared to traditional analysis techniques, electronic noses have certain motivations. The main motivation for electronic noses is capable of inexpensive, rapid, real-time as well as portable and reproducible measurements of volatile compounds. However, a universal electronic nose has not been built yet, which is capable of identifying or discriminating any gas sample type with high efficiency and for all possible applications. Because it is highly depends on the selectivity and sensitivity limitations of electronic nose sensor arrays for particular analyte gases. Therefore, electronic noses are not univerally utilized for every application of the gas samples. A proper electronic nose for a particular application should meet an evaluation of mecanism. 5.The Biological Nose The human olfactory system comprises variety of chemical sensors, known as receptors, and automated pattern recognition incorporated into the olfactory bulb and olfactory cortex in the brain [9, 10]. A receptor type alone can not identify a specific odor. It is the set of receptors composed of pattern recognition that can detect and identify each odor. Fig.3 shows the main components and function of the human olfactory system and its sensory components. Once odor molecules are presented to the olfactory receptors stimulating an electro-chemical response that is transmitted through the crib form plate to the olfactory bulb and ultimately the olfactory cortex. The olfactory receptors (sensors), the olfactory bulb (signal pre-processing), and the olfactory cortex (odor identification) are the major olfactory components in human olfaction system. 367 �Figure 3. Human Olfaction Sensing System [11] 6.Sensor Technologies on Electronic Nose Metal Oxide Semiconductor (MOS) was the first developed sensor array, which detected 20 odours [12]. By the technological development sensor arrays are created from six up to 32 sensors with different materials, detecting thousands of smells. This equipment varies different types of sensors interacting with volatiles: Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistors (MOSFETs), Quartz Crystal Microbalances (QCMs), the Surface Acoustic Waves (SAWs), Conducting Organic Polymer Sensors (CPs), Intrinsically Conducting Polymers (ICPs) and optical fiber bundles . Modern electronic noses (e-noses) can be constructed with more than one type of sensor in them. [13] 7.CONCLUSION Up to date, many papers on medical research using electronic nose have been studied. Neural network is the appropriate pattern recognition method for identifying patients with hepatic failure and healty individuals. As medical sensing samples are non linear, the most appropriate classificatiton method is neural which can train and test non linear medical samples in a short time with high accuracy compared to other algorithms. One of key factor for sensing odor is using the appropriate sensor. After a long time research, it is believed that polymer film coated sensors are more suitable for the medical diagnosis usin electronic noses. As a result electronic noses are prominent system as non invasive method of medical diagnosis. The studies have been shown that with appropriate sensor arrays and corresponding pattern recognition, electronic nose can be widely used for many diseases. Therefore, for early detection of hepatic coma, patients with hepatic failure can be efficiently analyzed by electronic nose for detection and identification. REFERENCES 1. http://www.nmihi.com/h/hepatic-coma.htm 2. Butterworth, R. F., Pathophysiology of hepatic encephalopathy: A new look at ammonia. Metabolic Brain Disease 17: 221-227, 2002 3. Pauling, L.; Robinson, A.B.; Teranishi, R.; Cary, P. Quantitative analysis of urine vapor and breath by gas-liquid partition chromatography. Proc. Nath. Acd. Sci. USA 1971, 68, 2374-2376 4. Mazzone, P., Hammel, J., Dweik, R., Na, J., Czich, C. Laskowski, D., & Mekhail, T., Lung Cancer Diagnosis by the Analysis of Exhaled Breath with a Colorimetric Sensor Array. ,2007 5. Kaji, H., Hisamura, M., Sato, N., Murao, M., 1978. Clinica Chimica Acta 85, 279 6. Simenhoff, M., Burke, J., Saukkonen, L., ordinario, A., Doty, R., 1977, New England Journal of Medicine, 297,132. 7. Wang, C., Sahay, P., 2009, Breath Analysis Using Laser Spectroscopic Techniques: Breath Biomarkers, Spectral Fingerprints, and Detection Limits, Sensors ISSN 1424/8220 368 �8. Velde, V.D., Nevens, S., Hee, F.V., Steenberghe, P.V., Quirynen, D.; 2008, GC-NS analysis of breath odor compounds in liver patients, Journal of chromatography b-analytical Technologies in the biomedical and life sciences vol:875 issue:2 ,344-348 9. Merler, S., C. Furlanello, B. Larcher and A. Sboner, 2001. Tuning Cost Sensitive Boosting and its Application to Melanoma Diagnosis, In MCS 2001, Cambridge, UK, 2096: 32-42. 10. Pardo, M. and G. Niederjaunfner, 2000. Data Preprocessing Enhances the Classification of Different Brands of Espresso Coffee with an Electronic Nose. Sensors & Actuators B, 69. 11. Shilbayeh, N.F. and M.Z. Iskandarani, 2004. Quality Control of Coffee Using an Electronic Nose System. Am. J. Applied Sci., 1: 129-135. 12. Persaud, K.C.; Dodd, G. Analysis of discrimination mechanisms in the mammalian olfactory system using a model nose. Nature 1982, 299, 352-355. 13. Casalinuovo IA, Di Pierro D, Coletta M, and Di Francesco P. 2006. Application of electronic noses for disease diagnosis and food spoilage detection. Sensors 6:1428–1439. Enzyme Supplementation to Soybean Based Diet in Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Effects on Growth Parameters and Nitrogen and Phosphorus Digestibility İbrahim Diler 1,Hüseyin Sevgili 2 ,Yılmaz Emre 2,Halit Bayrak 1 1 Department of Aquaculture, Süleyman Demirel University, 32100, Isparta-TURKEY 2 Mediterranean Fisheries Research, Production and Training Institute, P.O190, Antalya, Turkey E-mail: ibrahimdiler@sdu.edu.tr Abstract The aim of the this study was to examine the effects of the diets based on Soybean Meal (40%) supplemented with exogenous enzymes on growth performance, feed utilization, apparent digestibility and reduce environment pollution waste output of nitrogen and phosphorus in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) culture. Trout groups (initial weight 87.00±1,5) method of random plots with 3 replications of 50 fish/pond with the ratio of 1050 fish in the concrete ponds. Diets consisted of 25% fish meal (FM) and 40% dehulled hexane extracted soybean meal (SBM) in control group (C0) and diet supplemented with protease enzyme (PRT; 2g/kg-1), diet supplemented with enzyme cocktail (MIX; cellulose, xylanase, endo-ß-1,3:1,4-glucanase; 2g/kg-1) and diet supplemented with pyhtase enzyme (PHY; 2g/kg-1). About of growth performance were found while condition factor (1,21-1,23) were statistically similar (p>0.05), however specific growth rate, SGR, (1,118-1,340) and feed conversion ratio, FCR, (1,26-1,30) were obtained significantly different among groups (p<0,05). PRT and PHY groups significantly improved SGR and FCR better than control group. In this study, showed the highest nitrogen apperent digestibility coefficient, ADC (85,49±1,98) in PRT group while, the poorest value obtained (72,82±0.01) C0 group 369 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1269 Title A name given to the resource Breath Analysis of Hepatic Patients Using Electronic Nose Author Author Özgür , Örnek Abstract A summary of the resource. Hepatic coma, also known as hepatic encephalopathy, is loss of consciousness as a result of liver failure. Hepatic coma represents the final stage of hepatic encephalopathy - grade IV, a progressive brain dysfunction due to accumulation of substances toxic to the brain. Hepatic coma can rapidly progress and may ultimately lead to death. Therefore, early diagonosis of hepatic coma is consirerably crucial for patients‘ life. If not, patients with hepatic coma can die in few days. In this study, I have proposed to overview early diagnosis of hepatic encephalopathy by breath analysis using electronic noses which are regarded as rapid, inexpensive way of gas detection. Keywords: Electronic nose, hepatic coma, sensor arrays, neural Networks. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/bac5c426b79cfcb854935d27d078ce06.pdf 8a2d4334b9aeb43829461e4a95edbab9 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Budget Deficits and Democracy: The Case of Turkey Hakan Hotunluoğlu University of Adnan Menderes, Nazilli, Turkey hakanhotunlu@gmail.com Recep Tekeli University of Adnan Menderes, Nazilli, Turkey rtekeli@adu.edu.tr There is a vast body of literature on the political economy of budget deficits. These studies used different models to explain the political motivations behind budget deficits. There are some studies to explain the budget deficit in developed countries and assume that budget deficit is an expected outcome of fiscal policy in democratic countries. However, the studies have come to conclusion before analyzing whether the democracy affects budget deficit or not. To our knowledge there have not been many studies to explain whether the level of a country’s democracy affects budget deficits or not. In this paper, we will show a country’s level of democracy has a positive effect on budget deficit using a single country: Turkey. This research based on a time series analysis covering 35 years between 1975 and 2010 by using VAR (Vector Autoregressive) method. Our results suggest that Turkey’s level of democracy has indeed effects on budget deficits. We also find evidence that before the local election is held governments uses expansionary fiscal policies in order to increase the reelection probabilities. Keywords: Budget Deficits, Democracy, Political Budget Deficit. JEL classification: D72; H61; H63 141 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1509 Title A name given to the resource Budget Deficits and Democracy: The Case of Turkey Author Author HOTONLUOGLU, Hakan TEKELI, Recep Abstract A summary of the resource. There is a vast body of literature on the political economy of budget deficits. These studies used different models to explain the political motivations behind budget deficits. There are some studies to explain the budget deficit in developed countries and assume that budget deficit is an expected outcome of fiscal policy in democratic countries. However, the studies have come to conclusion before analyzing whether the democracy affects budget deficit or not. To our knowledge there have not been many studies to explain whether the level of a country’s democracy affects budget deficits or not. In this paper, we will show a country’s level of democracy has a positive effect on budget deficit using a single country: Turkey. This research based on a time series analysis covering 35 years between 1975 and 2010 by using VAR (Vector Autoregressive) method. Our results suggest that Turkey’s level of democracy has indeed effects on budget deficits. We also find evidence that before the local election is held governments uses expansionary fiscal policies in order to increase the reelection probabilities. Keywords: Budget Deficits, Democracy, Political Budget Deficit. JEL classification: D72; H61; H63 Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8ccb9313aa8bda592b6552e48771fac9.pdf b030f2276b519754e3ffe705d68de7e9 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Budget Deficits Sustainability Of Selected Eu Countries And Turkey: Panel Cointegration Analysis İsmet Göçer1,Mehmet Mercan2, M. Metin Dam1 1 Adnan Menderes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Aydin/Turkey 2Hakkari University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Hakkari/Turkey E-mails: igocer@adu.edu.tr, mercan48@gmail.com, metindam@adu.edu.tr Abstract Sustainability of budget deficits is one of the most important macroeconomic problems in most countries. High public spending and insufficiency of public revenue are main reasons collapsing of Greek, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland economies. For this reason, the conservation of budget balance and sustainability of budget deficits have a great importance. In this study; in selected 20 European Union countries and Turkey, the sustainability of budget deficit was analyzed with via under cross-section dependence panel co-integration analysis. At the end of the analysis; cross-section dependence was determined in these countries. Therefore, an economic shock which will come to one of these countries, affects the others, too. For this reason, the shocks that have been come to series don’t eliminate in the long term Co-integration relationship couldn't found between these series. Consequently, it has been seen budget deficits of these countries were unsustainable in the long term. Keywords: Budget Deficits, Sustainability, Cross-Section Dependence, Panel Co-integration Analysis. Jel Codes: C23, G18, H61, H62. 1. INTRODUCTION A system that is economically sustainability keeps internal and external debt to in the manageable levels and ensures continuous production of goods and services. (Haris, 2000: 5). The concept of sustainability in terms of budget, governments can fulfill their obligations to current and future spending is the ability to manage financial resources. For that reason, the sustainable budget system ensures allocation to public resources fairly intergenerational, keeps the interest rates at a level to encourage investments, eliminates of uncertainty and thus makes the economy more durable to unexpected shocks (Intergenerational Report, 2002: 313). The idea that is governments should intervene in the economy at the expense of the state budget deficit began with Keynes. Thus budget deficits have become a growing and permanent problem for countries. Many countries are attempting to pay the debts of the day, by means of the new debts. This situation is making much harder of financing and sustainability of the budget deficit. This situation is dragging countries in a vicious cycle of debt and can cause to economic crises. 238 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In order to decrease the level of indebtedness of countries, some arrangements have been accepted with Maastricht Criteria in 1993. According to these arrangements, so as to participate into the economic and monetary union of European Union (EU) member states, the ratio of the annual government deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) must not exceed 3% at the end of the preceding fiscal year and the ratio of gross government debt to GDP must not exceed 60% at the end of the preceding fiscal year, too. In this study, sustainability of budget deficit has been examined for 20 EU countries which their budget deficit exceed %3 of GDP in year 2011 and Turkey by means of under crosssection dependence panel unit root and panel co-integration tests for period of 2000-2011. After this point in the second section, theatrical background of sustainability of budget deficit will get involved. This section will be followed by the third section which includes the information about budget deficit of countries. This section will be followed by the fourth section which includes the literature summary and fifth section that involves the empirical analysis. The study will be completed with the conclusion and evaluation sections. 2. THEORETİCAL BACKGROUND The sustainability of the budget deficit is discussed with accounting approach and intertemporal budget constraint approach (Sriwardana, 1998). At the first approach, the sustainability of the budget deficit takes place if present discounted value of future primary surplus is greater or equal to current public debt stock. (Trehan and Walsh, 1988; Hakkio and Rush, 1991; Haug, 1991; Quintos, 1995). At the second approach he sustainability of budget deficits depends on the total values of assets and liabilities of state is equal each other or more assets than liabilities in present and future. (Buiter, 1985; Anand and Van Wijnbergen, 1989; Blejer and Cheasty, 1991). Hakkio and Rush (1991), for the U.S economy, relationship between government expenditures and government revenues examined via intertemporal budget constraint approach by using period of 1950:Q21988:Q4 data. Budget revenue and expenditure to GDP ratio study is used, provided that the co-integration relationship between the series, tested whether the coefficient equal to one. If the parameter is equal to one, the budget deficits are sustainable, while smaller than one is considered to be unsustainable in the long term budget deficits. Later Quintos (1995) has expanded these conditions. If the coefficient of the budget expenses equal to 1, the budget deficits sustainability is considered strong. If it is among between zero and one, sustainability is in a weak form. Adapted form is Hakkio and Rushs’ sustainability of budget deficits equations’ as follows: REVt  0  1EXPt  ut (1) Here, REV represents to general government revenue percent of GDP (including interest incomes) and EXP represents to General government total expenditure percent of GDP (including interest payments). 3. BUDGET DEFICIT IN COUNTRIES Lately, for the economic crises is lived in different countries, can said that uncontrolled budget deficits has got a significant share. There are budget deficits on the basis of the 239 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo economic problems ın Ireland, Greece and Spain. The ratio budget deficits to GDP of the countries are shown at the Table 1. Table 1: General Government Net Lending (Percent of GDP) 2011 Ranking -3.4 -3.6 -2.1 -4.1 -10.3 -9.3 -10.1 5. 1.6 2.8 0.1 -7.3 -14.1 -31.3 -9.8 7. -3.1 -2.1 -2.7 -6.6 -13.1 -10.4 -9.5 8. -5.5 -5.9 -6.6 -9.7 -15.5 -10.6 -9.1 9. -3.3 -2.6 -2.6 -4.9 -10.3 -9.8 -8.6 11. 0.9 2.1 1.9 -4.1 -11.1 -9.3 -8.4 13. -2.9 -2.3 -2.7 -3.3 -7.5 -7.1 -5.3 37. 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.1 -4.8 -5.5 -4.5 50. -2.8 0.1 -0.3 -1.2 -5.8 -4.1 -4.1 59. -5.8 -4.1 -3.2 -3.7 -10.1 -9.7 -4.1 66. -4.3 -3.3 -1.4 -2.6 -5.3 -4.4 -3.9 69. -0.2 0.1 -1.6 -2.3 -5.6 -2.7 -0.2 138. Source: IMF-World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012 2005 Japan Ireland US Greece UK Spain France Canada Belgium Portugal Italy Turkey 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 According to Table 1, the ratio of the annual budget deficit to GDP in 2011 is very high in the Japan, Ireland, USA, Greece and the United Kingdom. Turkey 138th among 184 countries. Especially the United States and other major economies, appear to be higher than the 3% level of the Maastricht criteria. The sustainability of budget deficits in these countries is at risk. Interested countries and international organizations must take action against to that situation. Ratio of the general government gross debt to GDP in countries, are shown in Table 2. Table 2: General Government Gross Debt (Percent of GDP) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Japan 186.4 185.9 183.1 191.8 210.2 215.2 229.7 Greece 100.2 106.1 105.4 110.7 127.1 142.7 160.8 Italy 105.4 106.1 103.1 105.8 116.1 118.6 120.1 Portugal 62.5 63.6 68.2 71.5 83.1 93.4 106.7 Ireland 27.1 24.7 24.8 44.2 65.1 92.4 104.9 US 67.8 66.6 67.1 76.1 89.8 98.5 102.9 France 66.7 63.9 64.1 68.2 78.9 82.3 86.2 Canada 71.6 70.2 66.5 71.1 83.5 85.1 84.9 UK 42.1 43.1 43.9 52.4 68.3 75.1 82.4 Germany 68.5 67.9 65.2 66.6 74.4 83.2 81.5 Turkey 52.7 46.5 39.9 40.1 46.1 42.2 39.4 Source: IMF-World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012 2011 Ranking 1. 2. 7. 9. 10. 11. 19. 20. 22. 24. 93. According to Table 2, the country which has the highest total public debt stock to GDP ratio is Japan. It is followed by Greece. In the Maastricht Criteria, when the ratio of total public debt to GDP passed the critical value 60%, it was considered to be risky in terms of countries. In this case, the debt stocks of major countries, has reached the values at risk. Turkey is far below the critical value and has got a better ratio. 4. LITERATURE Since increasing the importance of sustainability of budget deficit in recently in the international scale, the numbers of empirical studies on this subject have increased. In 240 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo particular the enormous budget deficits of the United States, directed to this issue the attention of researchers. For USA economy Kremers (1989), Wilcox (1989), Roberds (1991) and Hakkio and Rush (1991), Mankiw (2010); for Greece economy Fountas and Wu (1996), Makrydakis et al.(1999); for India Fountas and Wu (1996), Makrydakis et al. (1999); for Spain Rubio et al. (2006) have found that the budget deficits are not sustainable. Vice versa for USA economy Hamilton and Flavin (1986), Trehan and Walsh (1988), Trehan and Walsh (1991), Quintos (1995), Arestis et al. (2004); for Korea Koo (2002); for Greece, Ireland, Italy and Netherlands Arghyrou and Luintel (2003); for Turkey Payne (2008) has found the budget deficits would be sustainable. In addition, Payne (1996), has found budget deficits are unsustainable in France and Italy, but low level sustainable in Canada and United Kingdom. Panagiotis et al. (2009), tested theory of the twin deficits for Greece's economy and found that both deficits are sustainable in weak form. About the sustainability of budget deficits in Turkey; Ozmen and Kogar (1998), Azgun and Tasdemir (2006), have reached the conclusion of budget deficit is sustainable in Turkey. Akcay et al. (2001), Ozdemir (2004) and Sen et al. (2010) have obtained the result of the budget deficit unsustainable. Gocer and Peker (2011), have determined that the budget deficit is sustainable in weak form. 5. ANALYSIS 5.1.Data Set In this study, 20 European Union member countries, which their ratio of budget deficit to GDP has been bigger than 3% since 2011, and Turkeys' REV (General government revenue Percent of GDP) and EXP (General government total expenditure Percent of GDP) data of the 2000-2011 period has been used.. Data was taken from the IMF World Economic Outlook Database April 2012. 5.2. Method In this study; cross-sectional dependence among countries that make up panel was analyzed via Pesaran (2004) CDLM test. Cross-section dependence for variables was tested with Gauss codes; cross-sectional dependence for equation was tested using Eviews codes14. The stationary of the series were tested with Pesaran (2006) CADF and CIPS second generation unit root tests and Gauss codes. The presence of co-integration relationship between REV and EXP series was analyzed with Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method and using Gauss codes. Long term co-integration coefficients were estimated with Pesaran (2006) CCE and CCMGE methods and using Gauss codes. 5.3. Testing of Cross Section Dependence Whether consideration or not cross-sectional dependence between series, affects the whole outcome significantly (Breusch and Pagan, 1980; Pesaran, 2004). For this reason, before 14 We grateful for these codes and their helps to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bülent GÜLOĞLU and Asst. Prof. Dr. Şaban NAZLIOĞLU. 241 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo starting the analysis, the cross-section dependency must be tested. Because while selecting unit root and co-integration test methods, this situation must be considered. Otherwise the analysis that is done may cause wrong conclusions. The presence of a cross-sectional dependence: when dimension of time is larger than the dimension of cross-section (T>N); using Berusch and Pagan (1980) CDLM1tests, when time dimension equals to the dimension of the cross-section (T=N); testing via Pesaran (2004) CDLM2, if time dimension is smaller than the dimension of the cross-section (T<N) test makes via Pesaran (2004) CDLM tests’. Since there are 21 countries (N = 21), and 12 years (T = 12) in this study, Pesaran (2004) CDLM test has been used. Equation of CDLM tests as follows:  N 1 N  2T CD  (2)    ˆij  N (0,1) N ( N  1)  i 1 j i 1  Test statistic which will be obtained here, show that asymptotic standard normal distribution (Pesaran, 2004). Hypotheses of test: H0: There isn’t cross-section dependency. H1: There is cross-section dependency When test results obtained probability value less than 0.05, the H0 hypothesis is rejected at a significance level of 5% and be decided that there is cross-section dependency among these countries (Pesaran, 2004). In this study, presence of cross-section dependence on the variables was tested by using gauss codes. The presence of cross-section dependence on the co-integration equation was controlled by using Eviews codes. The results are displayed in the Table 3. Table 3: Results of CDLM Test REV EXP Co-integration Equation Test Statistics -1.771 0.254 10.605 Prob. 0.038 0.040 0.000 According to the results in Table 3; for the probability values are less than 0 .05, the crosssection dependence on the series and co-integration equation has been seen. In this case there is cross-section dependence among the countries which have formed the panel. A shock which has come from one of the countries, affects the others. While testing the unit root and co-integration, test methods must to be taking into account the cross-section dependence. On account of this, panel unit root test and co-integration analysis was made via methods which, which are considered the cross-sectional dependence. 5.4. Panel Unit Root Test The first problem, which encountered in the panel unit root tests, is whether or not the crosssectional units are independent each other. Panel unit root tests at this point are divided into first and second generation tests. The first generation unit root tests assumes that the units of forming panel are independent each other. First-generation unit root tests are divided into homogeneous and heterogeneous models. While Levin, Lin and Chu (2002), Breitung (2000) and Hadri (2000) take consider 242 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the homogen model; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) take consider the heterogen model. However, when a shock comes from on a unit, other units are affected by different levels is more realistic approach. To resolve this dilemma, the second generation unit root tests have been developed which considers to the cross-section dependency. Prominent second generation unit root tests are MADF (Taylor and Sarno, 1998), SURADF (Breuer, Mcknown and Wallace, 2002), CADF (Pesaran, 2006), and Bai and Ng (2004) In this study, since cross-sectional dependence among countries has been determined, stationarity of the series has been tested with Pesaran, (2006) CADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Cross-sectionally). ADF extended terms of cross-section in this test. It assumed the error term consist of two parts; a common parts and a specific parts to each series. Equation form of this expression is as follows: Yit  iYi ,t 1  uit (3) uit  i ft   it (4) In this equation, ft; unobservable represent a common element is always assumed to be stationary. Specific item in the series is εit independent and identical distributed. In this model cross-section dependence, originates from the existence of unobservable common item is assumed. The test hypotheses are as follows: H0: i  0 There is unit root. H1: i  0 There is not unit root. At first CADF statistics calculated for each country. These calculated values are compared with Pesaran (2006) table values. If calculated CADF value is smaller than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So there isn’t unit root in this country data and shocks are temporary. Later to decide whether or not unit root is existed in general of panel; by calculating arithmetic mean of CADF values of all countries, statistic of CIPS is obtained. The test hypotheses are CIPS same as CADF. Equation of CIPS is as follows: N CIPS   CADF i 1 i (5) N Calculated CIPS value is compared with Pesaran (2006) table values. If calculated CIPS value is smaller than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So there isn’t unit root in this panel data and shocks are temporary for all units. CADF and CIPS statistics calculated and results were given in Table 4. Table 4: Results of CADF and CIPS Tests Country p Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark France 4 5 4 1 1 4 EXP CADF Statistic -5.00 -3.91 -5.28 -3.08 -2.32 -3.12 243 p 1 2 1 2 3 4 REV CADF Statistic -3.69 -2.45 -4.11 -2.97 -2.29 -2.15 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Greece 1 -2.08 5 -2.47 Ireland 5 -4.79 4 -2.26 Italy 4 -4.03 5 -1.99 Latvia 5 -5.26 2 -3.93 Lithuania 1 -4.20 1 -3.37 Malta 2 -4.04 1 -3.53 Netherlands 3 -3.70 1 -3.74 Poland 3 -3.90 2 -3.54 Portugal 4 -4.81 2 -2.78 Romania 1 -4.41 1 -3.20 Slovak Republic 5 -4.36 2 -2.83 Slovenia 4 -1.81 1 -3.31 Spain 1 -3.60 2 -2.78 Turkey 4 -2.04 3 -3.23 United Kingdom 4 -3.82 1 -2.45 CIPS Statistic -3.80 -3.02 Note: Critic values get from; Pesaran (2006) pp. 46 Table 1c for 1% significance level is = - 4.96’dır. Since the computed CIPS statistics are not smaller than the table critic value, so H0 is accepted and it is concluded that panel unit root is existed in the series of panel. In this case, series are nonstationary at level15. This case is showing that the effects of shocks from the economies of the countries don’t lost immediately. For series are nonstationary, to analyze the relationship between the series of co-integration is decided. 5.5. Panel Co-integration Analysis Long-run relationship between variables, analysis via panel co-integration method is widely used in empirical analysis (Pedroni, 1999; Pedroni, 2004; Westerlund 2007; Westerlund ve Edgerton, 2007; Westerlund, 2008). At this stage of the study, firstly between series existence of co-integration was determined, after; individual and panel co-integration coefficients were estimated. 5.5.1. Testing the Existence of Co-integration Relationship At this stage of the study, the sustainability of budget deficits was analyzed by means of the co-integration between the revenue and expenditure series. Cross-section dependency was observed, co-integration of the panel presence, was tested by the Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method. The test hypotheses are as follows: H0: There is co-integration relationship. H1: There isn’t co-integration relationship. 15 It is seen EXP series of Austria, Cyprus and Latvia stationary in level value, namely I(0). In this situation looking to CIPS statistic (Pesaran, 2006). According to CIPS statistic, in the entire of panel is I(1). Addition for panel co-integration analysis applied via Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method, because this method permis so long as dependent variable I(1), independent variables can be I(1) or I(0). So the risk was eliminated. 244 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Estimated Durbin-H statistics values are compared with normal distribution table values. If estimated value is bigger than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So it is decided that the presence of the co-integration relationship between series. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method, the presence of co-integration relationship between the dimension of group and panel is separately tested. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H group co-integration test; the autoregressive parameter is allowed to differ between cross-sections. In this test, when H0 hypothesis is rejected, there is co-integration relationship for at least some sections. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H panel co-integration test; the autoregressive parameter is considered to be the same for all cross-sections. Under this assumption, when H0 hypothesis is rejected, there is co-integration relationship for all sections. (Di Iorio and Fachin, 2008; Bayar, Güloğlu and Selman, 2011). Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H-test was applied and results can be seen in Table 5. Table 5: Results of Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H Test Durbin-H Group Statistic 109.907 Durbin-H Panel Statistic 0.227 Note: Normal distribution critic values for 5% significance level is = 1.645. It was seen that estimated group statistic, larger than 1.645 critical values. In this case, H0 hypothesis was rejected for the group. It was decided to there are co-integration relationships between budget revenues and expenditures in some countries in the panel and budget deficits are sustainable in these countries. It has been seen that obtained panel statistic smaller than the critical value. So H0 hypothesis was accepted, and in this case, the panel co-integration relationship between budget revenues and expenditures are not to be existed. In conclusion, it was decided to budget deficits were unsustainable in the entire the panel. 5.5.2. Finding Coefficients of Co-integration In order to estimate the long term coefficients CCE (Common Correlated Effects) method, which is developed by Pesaran (2006) to consider the cross-sectional dependence, is used. CCE test results are shown in Table 6. Table 6: Results of CCE Test Country Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark France Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Malta Netherlands Poland Long-term Co-integration Coefficients 0.263 0.531 0.597 0.599 0.298 0.14 0.075 0.081 0.1 0.312 0.397 0.124 0.236 0.447 245 t Statistics 1.12 2.39 2.94 13.02 0.76 1.05 0.43 1.88 0.54 1.62 3.89 0.35 1.70 4.22 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Turkey United Kingdom CCMGE 0.641 0.398 0.383 0.302 0.229 0.353 0.091 0.11 4.06 3.59 8.33 5.92 1.33 20.76 1.78 1.86 In Table 6, the long-term co-integration coefficients are smaller than 1. According to Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Quintos (1995), budget deficits in these countries are unsustainable. Under the assumption that long-term co-integration parameters of countries are homogeneous, CCMGE (Common Correlated Mean Group Effects) were estimated. This method developed Pesaran (2006). CCMGE is estimated by averaging the values of the group. This estimation was made and obtained 0.11. This coefficient is smaller than 1. Therefore, in this countries budget deficits are unsustainable in the long run. 6.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION In this study, sustainability of budget deficit has been examined for 20 EU countries which their budget deficit exceed %3 of GDP in year 2011 and Turkey by means of under crosssection dependence panel unit root and panel co-integration tests for period of 2000-2011. The cross-section dependency for variables and co-integration equation were tested via Pesaran (2004) CDLM method. As a result of this analysis cross-section dependency was determined. In this case, a shock comes from one of these countries that affect the others, too. To that end, policy-determining nations, in interaction can be said that they needed to consider the developments relating to the country. For cross-sectional dependence is determined on the panel, while selecting the panel unit root and co-integration tests, this must be take into account. Therefore, taking into account the dependence of cross-sectional study, panel unit root test and co-integration analysis that takes into account the dependence of cross-sectional methods are used. Panel unit root was tested by means of Pesaran (2006) CADF and CIPS and the series were found nonstationary. This situation shows that the effects of shocks have not lost to the economies of the countries. The presence of the panel co-integration relationship is tested by Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method. When co-integration relationship determined for some countries, in the entire of panel co-integration relationship couldn’t determined. From this remark the budget deficits are unsustainable for these countries. Long-term individual co-integration coefficients have been estimated via Pesaran (2006) CCE method, panel co-integration coefficient is estimated through CCGME method. It is found that in these countries the budget deficit is unsustainable according to Rush Hakio (1991) and Quintos (1995). As the co-integration coefficient is smaller than 1. The empirical findings have shown that budget deficits are unsustainable in the long term in those countries. 246 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo REFERENCES Akçay, O. C., Alper C. E. and Özmucur S. (2001) Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence From Turkey (1970-2000), Boğaziçi University Department of Economics, WP, 12, İstanbul. Anand, R. and Wijnbergen V.S. (1989) Inflation and Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with An Application to Turkey, World Bank Economic Review, 3(1): 17-38. Arestis, P., Cipollini A. and Fattouh B. (2004) Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit, Economic Inquiry, 42(2): 214-222. Arghyrou, M.G. and Luintel K.B. (2003) Government Solvency: Revisiting Some EMU Countries, Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, 8: 23-51. Azgün, S.and Taşdemir M. (2006) Bütçe Açıklarının Sürdürülebilirliği: Zamanlararası Borçlanma Kısıtının Testi (1980-2004), Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 20(2): 35-47. Bai, J. and Ng S. (2004) A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration, Econometrica, 72(4): 1127-1178. Bayar, G. Güloğlu B. and Tokpunar S. (2011) Türkiye Ekonomisi’nin Dinamikleri: Politika Arayışları, Ekonomik Yaklaşım Kongresi, 22-23 Aralık. Beyaert, A. and Camacho M. (2008) TAR Panel Unit Root Tests and Real Convergence: an Application to the EU Enlargement Process, Review of Development Economics, 12(3): 668681. Blejer, M.I. and Cheasty A. (1991) The Measurament of Fiscal Deficts: Analitical and Methodological Issues, Journal of Economic Literature, 34: 1644. Breuer, B., Mcnown, R. and Wallace M. (2002) Series-Specific Unit Root Test with Panel Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 64(5): 527-546. Breusch, T.S and Pagan A.R. (1980) The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Modelspecification Tests in Econometrics, Review of Economic Studies, 47: 239-53. Breitung, J. (2005) A Parametric Approach to the Estimation of Cointegrating Vectors in Panel Data, Econometric Reviews, 24(2): 151‐173. Buiter, W.H. (1985) A Fiscal Theory of Hyperdeflations? Some Surprising Monetarist Arithmetic, NBER Technical Working Papers, 52. Choi, I. (2001) Unit Roots Tests for Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance 20: 229-272. Di I.F. and Fachin, S. (2008) A Note on the Estimation of Long-run Relationships in Dependent Cointegrated Panels, MPRA Paper, 12053, University Library of Munich, Germany. Fountas, S. and Wu J-L. (1999) Are the U,S, Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?, 247 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo International Economic Journal, 13(3): 51-58. Göçer, İ. and Peker O. (2011) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığının Sürdürülebilirliği: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı, 12th international Symposium on Econometrics Operations Research and Statistics, 26-29 Mayıs, Denizli. Hadri, K. (2000) Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels, Econometrics Journal, 3: 148-161. Hakkio, C. S. and Rush, M. (1991) Is the Budget Deficit Too Large?, Economic Inquiry, pp: 429-445. Hamilton, J. and Flavin M. (1986) On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing, American Economic Review, 76: 808- 819. Haris, J. (2000) Basic Principles of Sustainable Development, Tufts University, Global Development and Environment Institue Working Paper, Seri No: 00-04, pp: 1-24. Haug, A. A. (1991) Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 9: 97- 101. Im, K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (1997) Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, Mimeo Department of Applied Economics University of Cambridge. Im, K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (2003) Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115(1): 53-74. IMF (2012) World Economic Outlook Database, April. Intergenerational Report (2002) Treasurer of Common Wealth of Australia, Budget Paper No:5, http://www.treasury.gov.au/igr/ (18.3.2012). Koo, C. M. (2002) Fiscal Sustainability in the Wake of the Economic Crisis in Korea, Journal of Asian Economics, 3(5): 659-669. Kremers, J. (1989) U.S. Federal Indebtedness and the Conduct of Fiscal Policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, 23: 219-238. Jha, R. and Sharma A. (2004) Structural Breaks and Unit Roots: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit, Public Finance Review, 2(2):196-219. Levin, A., Lin C.F. and Chu C.S.J. (2002) Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties, Journal of Econometrics. Maddala, G.S. and Wu, S. (1999) A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61: 631-652. Makrydakis, S., Tzavalis E. and Balfoussias A. (1999) Policy Regime Changes and the LongRun Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Application to Greece, Economic Modelling, 6:71-86. Mankiw, G. (2010) What’s Sustainable About This Budget? New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/economy/14view.html 20/04/2011. 248 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Özdemir, K. A. (2004) Public Debt in Turkey, TCMB, Research Department, WP, 11. Özmen, E. and Koğar Ç.İ. (1998) Sustainability of Budget Deficits in Turkey with Structural Shift, METU Studies in Development, 25(1): 107-127. Panagiotis, P., Emmanouil T., Athanasenas L. A. and Constantinos K. (2009) On the Dynamics of the Greek Twin Deficits: Empirical evidence Over the Period 1960-2007, International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 2(2): 9-32. Payne, R. (1996) Announcement Effects and Seasonality in Intra-day Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility, London School of Economics, DP, 238. Payne, J.E., Hassan M. and Cak M. (2008) Turkish Budget Deficit Sustainability and The Revenue-Expenditure Nexus, APPLIED ECONOMICS, (7): 823-830. Pesaran, M. H. (2004) General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435. Peseran, H. (2006) A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependecy, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0346. Quintos, C. E. (1995) Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13: 409–417. Roberds, W. (1991) Implications of Expected Present Value Budget Balance: Application to Postwar U.S. Data, In Rational Expectations Econometrics, Edited by Lars Hansonand Thomas Sargent. Boulder: Westview Press. Rubio, O. B., Roldán C. D. and Esteve V. (2006) Is The Budget Defict Sustainable When Fiscal Policy is Nonlinear? The Case of Spain, Journal of Macroeconomics, 28: 596–608. Sriwardana, K. M. M. (1998) An Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Sri Lanka, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Staff Studies, Volume:27-28, pp: 80-111. Şen, H. Sağbaş İ. and Keskin A. (2010) Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirliğin Analizi: 19752007, Maliye Dergisi, 158. Taylor, M. and Sarno, L. (1998) The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period, Journal of International Economics, 46: 281-312. Trehan, B. and Walsh C. E. (1988) Common Trends, the Government Budget Constraint, and Revenue Smoothing, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 425-44. Westerlund, J. (2008) Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23: 193‐233. Wilcox, D. W. (1989) The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the PresentValue Borrowing Constraint, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21: 291-306. 249 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A Comparison Of Futures Prices On Turkdex With Conventional Pricing Theory Kusakci Ali Osman, Kusakci,Sumeyye International University of Sarajevo, Ilidza, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mails: akusakci@ius.edu.ba,skusakci@ius.edu.ba Abstract Derivatives are very sophisticated financial innovations and require highly sophisticated financial markets before they are introduced successfully. The well-known arbitrage free pricing theory applied when pricing derivative securities is based on some assumptions, which may not be verified in many of the emerging markets. Therefore, the applicability of the conventional theory to the emerging markets must be studied in details. This paper questions conformity of conventional arbitrage free pricing theory for emerging markets and discusses efficiency on newly organized Turkish derivative exchange (TURKDEX). Based on the market data in Turkey a comparison will be made between daily market prices and theoretical prices of 43 futures contracts. The results show that currency futures in TURKDEX are evaluated by market players fairly but ISE-30 and ISE-100 contracts offer arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, this work shows that theory and market differences rely mainly on inexperienced market players and newly established market regulations. Conservative regulations on short-selling are another problem to be solved. Keywords: futures, TURKDEX, cost of carry, arbitrage theory, emerging markets, pricing 1.INTRODUCTION Forward and future contracts are two basic types of derivatives, where they referred in the literature as unconditional derivatives (Daniel Siegel & Diane Siegel 1990).While evaluating them, the basic pricing approach is “cost of carry” approach (CC). CC is derived from an arbitrage-free market theory, while an arbitrage-free market is characterized as follows (Rudolph & Schäfer 2010);     There is no taxes, transaction and information cost Short selling is allowed All market players have the same opportunities on the market A cash flow stream and a derivative instrument can be arbitrarily divided. However, the above mentioned assumptions are only valid for a well-developed market and can be justified only under the well-known efficient market hypothesis (EMH) according to which the current price of a stock fully reflects, at any time, available information exploited by traders. As new information becomes available, any imbalance is immediately detected and accounted for by a counteracting change in stock market price (Fama 1965). Thus, the prices follow random walk and there are no clear arbitrage opportunities on an efficient market (Malkiel 2003; Atsalakis & Valavanis 2009). This, however, requires high liquidity, sufficient depth and well informed market participants. On the other hand, emerging financial markets, like Turkish capital market, may exhibit a different profile and may suffer from low 250 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1300 Title A name given to the resource Budget Deficits Sustainability Of Selected Eu Countries And Turkey: Panel Cointegration Analysis Author Author İsmet , Göçer Abstract A summary of the resource. Sustainability of budget deficits is one of the most important macroeconomic problems in most countries. High public spending and insufficiency of public revenue are main reasons collapsing of Greek, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland economies. For this reason, the conservation of budget balance and sustainability of budget deficits have a great importance. In this study; in selected 20 European Union countries and Turkey, the sustainability of budget deficit was analyzed with via under cross-section dependence panel co-integration analysis. At the end of the analysis; cross-section dependence was determined in these countries. Therefore, an economic shock which will come to one of these countries, affects the others, too. For this reason, the shocks that have been come to series don’t eliminate in the long term Co-integration relationship couldn't found between these series. Consequently, it has been seen budget deficits of these countries were unsustainable in the long term. Keywords: Budget Deficits, Sustainability, Cross-Section Dependence, Panel Co-integration Analysis. Jel Codes: C23, G18, H61, H62. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c9467e8d7559f946411a35f1642115b7.pdf 83c5fce773bab1778ec76b22bdd8ee32 PDF Text Text 1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo Building a community of shared practice by localizing externally-derived professional development in educational reform‘ John McKeown Senior Lecturer, English Education, Mevlana University, Konya, Turkey jmckeown@mevlana.edu.tr Michael Diboll, Assistant Professor, Bahrain Teachers College, Manama, Bahrain mdiboll@hotmail.com Abstract:This research focuses on sociolinguistic aspects of education reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) region and the strategies by which the achievement of ‗linguistic convergence‘ and corresponding ‗cultural convergence‘ or ‗optimal convergence‘ can enhance in-service teachers‘ Continuing Professional Development (CPD) participant learning. This professional reflection, situated within the evolving context of reform underway in Bahrain, is based on research conducted at the Bahrain Teachers College (an autonomous professional college founded in 2008 within the University of Bahrain) during 2008-2010. The data, gathered from in-service CPD modules with mid-career Bahraini teachers, includes a wide range of practice-based sources including surveys, interviews, focus groups, and observation. Managing the shift from externally-prepared in-service CDP, toward contextualizing the materials, curriculum, and program delivery to the cultural, social, and educational environment of Bahrain is challenging. Developing ―ownership‖ of new approaches to learning, can make effectively localize the training at the classroom level. The data points to ways that balance the learning needs of local in-service teachers with the internationalizing imperatives of multinational education consultancy: KEY WORDS: Linguistic convergence, teaching environment, continuing professional development, optimal convergence Introduction The study focuses on the evolving Continuing Professional Development (CPD) provision at Bahrain Teachers College (BTC) and the factors that impact on the quality of participants' CPD experience including the relevance of CPD provision (and the impact of this on participants' attitudes to learning and developing practice), and, directing the BTC CPD programme in a way that builds on previously derived materials, while enhancing the participant experience and maximising professional development potential for positive change. The CPD curriculum was introduced by facilitators from the National Institute of Education, Singapore, BTC‘s lead consultant on education reform. Currently, CPD modules are offered at Cadre levels 4-8. To obtain promotion from one salary level to the next highest, Bahraini state-sector teachers must complete 360 hours of CPD (twelve x thirty-hour CPD modules) within a four-year period. In order to carry out this research effectively, a needs assessment focussing on motivation, and satisfaction of BTC PD participants was required. In regards to the specific needs of in-service Bahraini participants, interested stakeholders had undertaken limited background research on participants‘ needs. Background During 2008-2009, and the first semester of 2009-10, NIE was responsible for the delivery of CPD modules, using Singaporean facilitators working at University of Bahrain (UoB). The second semester 2009-10 was the first semester of BTC‘s lead for CPD provision. The focus of delivery had been on the transfer of the 41 modules developed by NIE. In order to render CPD relevant to the needs of mid-career teacher, Bahraini CPD participants, this study focuses primarily on the language of instruction, although it is hoped that it will also have a wider relevance 691 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo encompassing participant motivation, participant satisfaction, cultural relevancy of CPD materials and delivery, and, participants‘ expectations. This focus goes beyond ‗technical rationality‘ where participants are viewed as passive learners (Schôn, 1983, 1987). BTC‘s CPD provision began with the delivery of 17 NIE-derived thirty-hour CPD modules during March and April 2010. These covered topics in Foundation, Maths, and Science with a maximum enrolment of 460 participants. In May and June 2010 a further batch of ten CPD modules were delivered, covering the same subject areas, with an enrolment of 300 participants. Ethics Participants, both facilitators and course participants, were informed that coursework and data derived from surveys would be used anonymously for the purpose of this research, and were given an opt-out option if requested (no participants did). BTC Heads‘ Council granted permission to adapt CPD provision to gather data for this specific research purpose. The Heads‘ Council also authorised the use of BTC materials otherwise deemed confidential. Review of Theory Theory is derived from three areas: Reflective Practice (RP); Sociolinguistics and Communication Theory, with a focus on the Arab World; and, Studies in Cross-cultural Communication The primary point of reference for reflective practice is Donald Schôn (1983, 1987), supplemented by more contemporary sources, including Bigg‘s and Tang‘s, Teaching for Quality Learning at University (2007). Howard Giles‘ Communication Accommodation Theory (―CAT‖; 1978, 1991) provides a starting point, supplemented by Saravanan‘s work on sociolinguistic aspects of pedagogy and education reform in Singapore (1985). More recent Arab World language use data is borrowed from Bassiouney (2009). Theoretical insights into Cross-cultural Communication are informed by the work of Berger (1979), Gundykunst (2005), Hampden-Turner (2004), and Hofstede (2001). Timeframe Data collection began with observations of NIE CPD delivery at BTC. February through December 2009, with the following activities used to assess NIE provision effectiveness, and to gain insights into how this provision might be improved and fine-tuned to make it better-suited to a Bahrain context: observations of NIE-delivered CPD sessions; post-delivery tutors‘ focus groups; SWOT analyses; and, interviews with CPD participants. The paper focuses on research activities on-going throughout CPD sessions beginning with one cohort of 17 sections of CPD (21 March - 6 May 2010), and with a second cohort of 10 sections (23 May - 5 July 2010) and included:  A mid-course initial survey gathering qualitative feedback from CPD participants in two sections, one facilitated by an Arabic speaking tutor, the other by a non-Arabic speaker  An end of course on-line survey gathering data from CPD participants in two sections  An on-line end-or-course tutor survey gathering quantitative and qualitative data from all 12 BTC faculty members (Arabic speakers and non-Arabic speakers) delivering PD modules  End of course grades from all sections The activities were conducted during class sessions. Certain issues emerged as significant to the effective delivery of CPD; the language of learning was the most significant issue raised consistently by both participants and facilitators. Facilitators also noted motivational and related attitudinal issues, while participants further mentioned issues of cultural appropriateness, the applicability of the materials used in a Bahrain context, and the perceived ―foreignness‖ of the materials they had to work with. Language issues The language issues were significant as NIE-courses were delivered in English, and all course materials were written in English. No NIE tutors spoke Arabic, and nearly all of them were Education specialists, with little or no background in specialised English Language Teaching (ELT) or Cross-cultural Communication. Communication was further complicated by the fact that many participants had difficulty in understanding the accents and English usages of many of the Singaporean facilitators. Singapore has its own dialect of English, 692 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo ―Singlish‖, characterised by Chinese-influenced intonation patterns, different stress patterns, the simplification of consonant clusters, different word-order, and additional morphemes derived from Chinese dialects and from Malay (Saravanan: 1985, 67). While like most Singaporean professionals, the facilitators used ―Singapore British English‖ (SBrE) as their professional dialect, the pronunciation, syntax, and vocabulary of SBrE is often powerfully influenced by Singlish, particularly when used by academics, to the extent that SBrE and Singlish can be seen as two ends of a continuum of Singaporean English dialect use, rather than as two discrete dialects (Saravanan: 1985, 68-8). Thus, the language of delivery was doubly ―foreign‖ to Bahraini participants: foreign because it was in English, and, foreign again, because it is in a form of English unfamiliar to Bahrainis. SBrE is well established as a language of instruction at all levels of the Singaporean education system and across subject areas. It is an official national language in a multilingual, multiethnic island nation, and functions as an important unifier for Singaporean society. Singapore has four official languages: English, Malay, Mandarin, and Tamil, in recognition of the linguistic diversity of Singapore (Saravanam: 1985, 65). None of this is true for Bahrain. Although English is widely used in Bahrain, particularly in the commercial sector, it has no official or legal status. While English is taught from Grade 6 in Bahraini schools, it is taught as a foreign language and is not the language of instruction for any core curriculum subjects. Even at BTC, the college‘s regulations state: ―The official language of BTC shall be Arabic; the BTC Governing Council upon recommendation of the BTC Council shall admit other languages in teaching, research and professional activity as are necessary in the light of standards of international excellence of the programmes‖ (Article 4,H) Bahrain, like most Arab states uses Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) (a language learned at school but which is seldom a natural means of spoken communication) as the sole official language (Bassiouney: 2009, 211). In this highly diverse linguistic context, Standard English serves as a common language of professional discourse, and as a national unifier (Saravanan, 69). English does not officially play this role in Bahrain, and there is not the same level of awareness at a public policy level of the dynamics of pluralingualism as is found today in Singapore. Singaporean facilitators received little briefing on Bahrain, Bahraini culture, and language use or level of the participants. As a result, it was perhaps too straightforward for NIE‘s otherwise highly skilled facilitators to make assumptions about the status and role of English in Bahrain based on Singapore experience. Circumstances could be interpreted that a ―culture clash‖ had unwittingly been set up, precisely the sort of situation that ought to be avoided when implementing an education change project (McKeown, 2005), already seen by many as being politically controversial. It ought to be noted that there is a significant generational difference in the English-language abilities of the middle-aged, mid-career Bahraini teachers on PD courses compared to those of the much younger ―globalised‖ Bahrainis on BTC‘s B.Ed. and PGDE programmes. While younger students generally have a very positive attitude toward English, this is not necessarily the case with older teachers, who sometimes see the spread of English in Bahrain as a form of ―linguistic imperialism.‖ Linguistic convergence Linguistic convergence is a key factor in effective and positive cross-cultural communication. Sociolinguist Howard Giles points out that ―convergent communicative acts reduce interpersonal differences‖, creating an atmosphere conducive to co-operation across cultures and language groups, while ―divergent‖ acts in which ―speakers accentuate speech and non-verbal differences‖, can be used as a defensive mechanism to reinforce an ―us and them‖ dichotomy that inhibits effective communication (1991, 7-9). Effective communication is a key element in change management because change, however necessary, often contains an element of fear. Michael West, Professor of Organisational Psychology at Aston Business School, states that ―It‘s not change we fear, but the place in between. . . there‘s nothing to hold on to . . .‖. In a similar vein, Vikky Wright, President of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development says ―It‘s not about changing organisations, it‘s about changing people, being ready for the change on time‖ (CIPD, ―Managing Change‖, at 5‘.10‖ onwards). It can be seen that divergent communication reinforcing a natural uneasiness about change in a politically charged context might constitute a significant threat to the effectiveness of NIE‘s delivery of CPD programmes at BTC. Whereas the problematic use of English outlined above undoubtedly created straightforward inter-linguistic communication problems, there were motivational and attitudinal issues reported by NIE facilitators, and the cultural inappropriateness and foreignness mentioned by participants might have been exacerbated by, or even created by, a retreat into divergent communication on the part of both facilitators and tutors. 693 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo Profile of Participants This survey, conducted with 38 participants in May at BTC, had two sections, demographic data, and participant‘s course satisfaction. A sample of 38 participants enrolled in two sections of the Level 5 course EPD5001, Collaborative and Cooperative Learning surveyed in May 2010, yielded the following results:  Language use: 57.9% self-identified as speakers of Arabic only; 35.9% self-identified as bilingual ArabicEnglish; 2.6% self-identified as bilingual Arabic-Other language  Genders were balanced more or less evenly, 52% to 48% in favour of females  The vast majority or participants were in their 30‘s: 60.5% were in their early thirties, 26.3% were in their later thirties; just over 13% were older, in age bands falling between 40 and 60+  Years experience as teachers: the overwhelming majority, 76.3% had between 6 and 10 years‘ experience, this is in keeping with their status as Level 5 teachers; 18.4% had between 11 and 15 years experience, while 5.2% had between 20 and 30 years teaching experience  39.5% were primary teachers, 26.3 taught at intermediate level, 34.2% were primary teachers, and 2.6% identified as ―other‖  The largest single group of subject specialists were Arabic teachers, at 20.6%; 14.7% were English specialists, 11.8% taught Islamic Studies, 11.8% taught History, 11.8% taught Maths, and a further 11.8 taught Physical education; smaller percentages taught in Business, Science, or as General Class Teachers at primary level. The fact that 60.5% of the sample self-identified either as Arabic-only speakers, or as speakers of Arabic and another language other than English, with less than 40% self-identifying as bilingual Arabic-English is highly significant for a course which was delivered entirely in English by NIE, and for which the NIE-derived course materials are entirely in English. Data regarding participants‘ self-identification in terms of language ability corresponds well to their subject specialisations: the largest single specialisation presenting in this sample was Arabic, at 20.6%. Further, the combined percentage for specialisations that are taught either entirely in Arabic, or with very little English, was 46.2%. The fact that 60.8% of participants taught in classes in which English was hardly ever used, while 60.5% of participants self-identified as non-English speakers brings into question a rationale for English-only provision. Response to the data In order to address the bilingual language issue as indicated in the data, a variety of approaches were devised in programme delivery by both Arabic and non-Arabic facilitators of CPD modules:  delivering teacher talk in a mix of about 70% Arabic, 30% English, code-switching (―the alternating use of two or more recognisably different language variants within the same text‖, Dickins et al 2002: 233) for technical terms  using about MSA on the whiteboard, often scribed by participants  encouraging participants to work collaboratively to produce their own Arabicisations (or ‗Bahrainisations‘), of English-derived concepts. Rather than merely translating, the aim here was to support students in understanding the concept, and to express it in Arabic, using metaphors and examples derived from real Bahraini usage and experience, a form of ―cultural transplantation‖ (Dickins et al 2002: 32)  allowing group discussions to take place in Bahraini dialect (―natural‖ language use for brainstorming), with presentations and demonstrations of teaching given either in standard languages, English or MSA  allowing coursework, lesson plans, posters, to be produced in Arabic  using translated bilingual handouts and other materials 694 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo  reducing the number of heavily English-language laden power-point presentations by simplifying the language used, or replacing some of the slides with all-Arabic or bilingual versions  using targeted bilingual support for explanation of key concepts and concept-checking . Results of the Mid-Course survey This survey gathered qualitative data on participant satisfaction with the course EPD 5001, Collaborative and Cooperative Learning (CL). The 38 participants arranged themselves into gender-specific groups, the smaller group being female, the larger two group being male. Participants were instructed to brainstorm about the course with an emphasis on how it could be improved. Below are main points presented by each group summarised in note form: Female group  Overall experience was that the class was ―refreshing‖  Participants felt empowered by learning new techniques  Primary general classroom teachers found the course less useful, due to the lack or primary school focus  Most participants though that more Arabic is ―a must‖ on this course  Most participants found the English language handouts and PPPs difficult and confusing  After work sessions, and the location (at BTC in the far south of the island) were highly inconvenient  PD sections should be organised on a subject-specific and/or a level-specific basic (e.g., sections for primary teachers, section for English teachers, etc.) Male Group 1:  The course needed a better and more diverse range of resources  Participants needed the opportunity to practice CL strategies in their schools and report back during PD classes  Arabic should be the language of instruction, with supplementary resources in English  PD courses should be run during the summer after the school exams period  Participants should have hands-on assistance in applying CL strategies in schools Male Group 2:  Core CL concepts and practices should be developed through their application in schools  All PD classes should be bilingual Arabic-English  The course curriculum should be clearer and written in Arabic  There should be an active internet connection in class  There should be a more diverse range of learning materials  PD tutors should visit Bahraini schools Participants‘ End-of-course survey This survey, conducted with 38 participants in May at BTC, had two sections, demographic data, and participant‘s course satisfaction. 695 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo The results showed substantial numbers of participants (11- 44%) ‗always‘ using the ten Cooperative Learning (CL) strategies highlighted in the course, with large majorities using these approaches either ‗often‘ or ‗sometimes‘. Only small minorities (1.5% to 3%) reported that they used these approaches only ‗rarely‘, or ‗never‘. These results are impressive considering that prior to taking this course most of the participants had little or no experience in CL. A majority of 65% of participants rated tutor-participant interaction as ‗excellent‘, with 24% rating it as ‗very good‘. Participant-participant interaction was rated at 46% ‗excellent‘, with 40% rated ‗very good‘. Language use in class sessions was rated at 42% ‗excellent‘, and 26% ‗very good‘. Only 5% of respondents thought that language use on the courses was either ‗below average‘, or ‗poor‘. Tutors‘ End-of-course survey The 12 tutors facilitating PD sessions from March to May completed an end-of-course survey. Assessing the relevance of the course materials to the Bahraini cultural context opinion was divided, 25% of tutors thought it was ‗excellent‘, 33%, ‗very good‘, 25%, ‗good‘, and 16% ‗satisfactory‘. While no tutors thought it was ‗unsatisfactory‘, tutors did add comments on the cultural suitability of the materials, for instance: ―I would suggest that the NIE PD materials be consistent with the cultural and contextual factors associated with the participants' life and educational experiences, their working conditions and learning environment.‖ ―Generally, the NIE materials were satisfactory, although too focused on the Singapore setting.‖ ―Overall, the materials, although relevant to the subject area, were not at a level the participants could grasp quickly. There was also little breadth to the topics covered.‖ ―These materials need revision, and more Bahrain relevant materials developed.‖ ―I needed to make a few modifications because of cultural context. But overall it is very well prepared. Also, I needed to add more demonstrations based on availability of materials. We did not have teaching materials.‖ ―I'd try to get more materials translated into Arabic and use those more.‖ ―I would have an Arabic-speaking tutor visit the class earlier than I did to provide translation. I would also give the participants class time to prepare their assignments so I could check to make sure they understood the assignment rather than relying on the Englishspeakers‘ assurances that everyone‘s 'got it'.‖ Concerning the language of tuition, 91% of tutors thought that the courses should be bilingual, and 9% thought they should be taught in Arabic only. Not a single tutor supported English-only provision. When offered bilingual teaching options, 80% favoured bilingual versions of the NIE materials, and 20% Arabic only versions. 90% favoured BTC developing its own bilingual teaching materials, and 40% favoured bilingual co-teaching. 67% of tutors thought that enhanced bilingual provision was the single most important thing that could be done to improve participants‘ learning experience. On motivation, 33% of tutors thought their participants were ‗somewhat motivated‘, although 25% considered them to be ‗very motivated‘. Tutors own attitudes toward PD were divided: 47% said they were ‗enthusiastic‘ about teaching it again, while 33% said they would either ‗rather not‘, or ‗certainly not‘ want to teach PD again. End of course grades Assessment of NIE CPD is designed with a pass/fail grade. The individual assessment component is 30% of the total, and the group project at 40%. Most assessment is either for group work assessed on a group basis, or for collaboration. At present, the BTC is obliged to follow the UoB system for academic grading, which has grade bands from F to A, with plus or minus grades, e.g., C-, C, and C+, separated by three marks. This schema is obviously designed with summative, exam-type assessments in mind, where getting one or two questions right or wrong can meaningfully distinguish between a C and a C+. This schema does not fit well with PD courses, where only a minority part of the mark is given for purely individual effort. When marked according to the NIE rubric, successful completion of the tasks assigned on these PD courses will in all likelihood lead to an academic grade in the A or B range. However, the final grades for sections were interestingly divergent. Several facilitators who diligently aimed for linguistic convergence had 100% pass rate with many grades in the A and B range. The final results posted by Dr. X and Dr. Y make an interesting point of contrast. 696 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo Dr. X is a non-native speaker of English and an experienced practitioner. However, Dr. X did not know Arabic and used English exclusively. Dr. Y, also a non-native speaker of English, knows no Arabic, and is an experienced educator and an active researcher. In the course, English was used exclusively. Neither facilitator opted for bilingual support. Dr. X‘s section had 27 participants. With 11 no-shows, and four drop-outs, there were 7 passes: 4 A-grades, 1 B; and two Cs. There were 5 fails resulting from non-completion of course work. Dr. Y‘s had 32 enrolled participants with 14 no-shows. The remaining participants achieved 5 A-grades, 6 Bs, and 1 C. 7 fails were due to non-completion of coursework. Although popular and competent tutors in graduate and undergraduate courses, both Dr. X and Dr. Y were the subject of subject of formal CPD participant complaints regarding attitude and communication skills. Analysis In the mid-course survey, all groups identified the lack of Arabic as a weakness, and individual participants reported this to be a serious weakness. All groups stressed the need for bilingual learning materials, and/or bilingual instruction. Some groups reported that in addition to the language issue, PD materials should be developed to make them more relevant in a Bahraini context. Based on findings, those tutors who made significant efforts to factor bilingualism into the existing NIEderived provision seemed to have positively enhanced the participant‘s learning experience. Giles and Smith (1979) cite a number of factors that influence the effectiveness of cross-cultural communication: ―similarity attraction‖, that ―the more similar are attitudes and beliefs are to certain others the more likely it is we will be attracted to them‖ (47); the ―social exchange‖ process, ―the rewards attending a convergent act, that is an increase in attraction or approval‖ (48); ―causal attribution‖, where ―we interpret other people‘s behaviour, and evaluate persons in themselves, in terms of the motivations and intentions that we attribute as the cause of their behaviour (50); ―intergroup distinctiveness‖, wherein members of different groups, when they are in contact, ―compare themselves on dimensions that are important to them‖ (52). Building positive inter-cultural relations and effective communication depends on aligning these factors to achieve ―optimal convergence‖ leading to positive inter-evaluation (53-4). Thus, focusing on the importance of language in tutor-participant relations is of value to other BTC PD faculty, especially non-Arabic speaking faculty, as it enables outsiders to achieve optimal convergence in a cultural setting which values ―a close long-term commitment to the member 'group'‖ where ―loyalty in a collectivist culture is paramount, and over-rides most other societal rules‖ (Hofstede, Cultural Dimensions: Arab World). Eckert (2005) calls this a ―community of practice‖: An aggregate of people who come together on a regular basis to engage in some enterprise: a family, a linguistics class, a garage, band, roommates, a sports team, even a small village. In the course of their engagement, the community of practice develops ways of doing things – practices. And these practices involve the construction of a shared orientation to the world around them – a tacit definition of themselves in relation to each other, and in relation to other communities of practice‖ (quoted in Bassiouney: 2009, 94). Clearly, BTC CPD classes are, in this sense, communities or practice, bilingual, cross-cultural communities, in each of which a unique ‗social meaning‘ is constructed in the interactions between participants and tutor, and, perhaps more significantly, between the participants themselves. Therefore, there is a need for CPD tutors to ‗firm up‘ theır modelling micro-levels of community of practice by careful consideration of the roles of language and culture in achieving optimal convergence. This is particularly the case where socio-cultural dynamics can constitute a serious obstacle to effective communication, and the achievement of learning outcomes. The mid-course survey results suggest that to achieve optimal convergence, it is not necessary for non-Arab tutors to be fluent in Arabic in order to be successful in facilitating learning, even with groups where over half the participants self-identify as ―Arabic only‖ speakers. Rather, it is sufficient that participants are allowed to use Arabic for discussion and presentation; that bilingual resources are employed; and, that the tutor uses some Arabic and signals interest and respect for participants‘ cultural perspectives. This minimises ―perceived threat‖ and ―uncertainty‖, which are serious obstacles to effective inter-cultural communication (Berger 1979, 133-4), and helps achieve ―optimal convergence.‖ By respecting the importance of language and culture in the sessions, several tutors were able to achieve greater levels of optimal convergence. This led in turn to positive learning outcomes for the participants, as evidenced by the participants‘ end-of-course survey in which participants, previously unfamiliar with CL techniques reported high levels of usage across ten different strategies. The tutor‘s end-of-course survey indicated an awareness of the importance of language and cultural issues. The overwhelming majority of tutors (91%) were strongly in favour of enhanced bilingual provision, both in terms 697 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo of human and material resources. Most commented on the difficulties encountered in working with the existing English-only materials and many reflected on the need to make the materials more relevant to the Bahraini cultural context. Subsequent experience with tutors with little or no Arabic showed that linguistic convergence can still take place, and still be nearly as effective as the convergence that takes place between an Arabic-speaking facilitator and Arabic-speaking participants. Often a ―gesture‖ towards convergence is all that is needed to facilitate attitudinal and behavioural convergence. Tutors received comparable positive evaluations for respectfulness and attitude, demonstrating the way that in cross-cultural communication language skills and cultural sensitivity are equally valuable. However, ―linguistic convergence‖ either on the level of language or dialect can have a very positive influence on morale, attitudes, and motivation, creating an ownership of learning for the participants, and, genuine inclusion for the tutor. Thus, Arabicisations of core concepts and practices that can come out of ―convergence learning‖ between Arabic-speaking tutors and participants are a significant contribution to existing knowledge. The supporting data confirms that improving tutor-participant communication is an essential aspect for the learning environment, positively influencing participants‘ perception of culturally ―Other‖ tutors, and, improving participantparticipant communication. However, it also shows the need for improvement in inter-personal cross-cultural communication to be supplemented by the development of bilingual and culturally sensitive and relevant course materials. During these PD sessions tutors had limited opportunities to develop such materials because adaptations of NIE-derived materials had to undergo a process of approval that was not feasible in the given time-frame. The data demonstrates conclusively that participants’ needs, attitudes, and expectations are rooted in a cultural context and in evolving communities of practice, and this realization feeds directly into on-going discussions around how teaching and learning on CPD can be made more effective. Conclusion In his Language Policy and Language Planning: From nationalism to globalisation Wright (2004) states: Language policy is primarily a social construct - policy as a culture construct rests primarily on other conceptual elements – belief systems, attitudes, myths – the whole complex that were are referring to as linguistic culture, which is the sum totality of ideas, values, beliefs, attitudes, prejudices, religious stricture, and all the other cultural ‗baggage‘ that speakers bring to their dealings with language from their background. (276). At a macro- and a micro-level, the public policy economic and educational reform project of which BTC is a part involves every aspect of what Wright calls ‗linguistic culture‘. It is not unsurprising, therefore, that this study confirms the centrality of Giles‘ linguistic ‗optimal convergence‘ to effective cross-cultural communication in BTC‘s CPD classrooms. In short, if CPD externally-derived provision is to be effective, the ‗language question‘ cannot be avoided. This study opens a path to research the importance of linguistic and cultural factors at work in CPD, and the bridges it can establish between cultures in an increasingly globalized educational context. References Bassiouney, R. (2009) Arabic Sociolinguistics. Edinburgh, UK: EUP. Berger, C. ―Beyond Initial Interaction: Uncertainty, Understanding, and the Development of Interpersonal Relationships‖ in Giles, H and St. Clair, R. Language and Social Psychology. Biggs, J. and Tang, C. (2007) Teaching for Quality Learning at University. (3rd edition)Maidenhead, UK: OUP. 698 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo Boise State University. (2007) Performance Management: http://hrs.boisestate.edu/td/pdf/SMARTgoals.pdf Accessed 15th July 2010. Setting SMART Objectives. Bosch, K. (2006) Planning Classroom Management: A Five-Step Process to Creating a Positive Learning Environment. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Cohen, L. Manion, L. and Morrison, K. (2007) Research Methods in Education (6th Edition). Oxford: Routledge. Dickins, James. Hervey, S. and Higgins, I. (2002) Thinking Arabic Translation: a Course in Translation Methods, Arabic to English. London, Routledge. Giles, H. (ed.) Contexts of Accommodation: Developments in Sociolinguistics. Cambridge, UK: CUP, 1991. Giles, H. and Smith, P. ―Accommodation Theory: Optimal Levels of Convergence‖ in Giles, H. and St. Clair, R. Language and Social Psychology. Giles, H. and St. Clair, R. (1979) Language and Social Psychology. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. Gopinathan S. & Vanithamani Saravanan . (1983) ―Varieties of English and Education Linguistics‖: Singapore Journal of Education. 7: 64-71 Gudykunst, W.B. (2005) Theorizing about Intercultural Communication. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Hampden-Turner, C. Trompenaars, F. (2004) Managing People Across Cultures. Chichester: Capstone. Heil, G. Bennis, W. Stephens, D. (2000) Douglas McGregor, Revisited: managing the human Side of the enterprise. New York: Wiley. Hofstede, Geert. (2001) Culture's Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, and Organizations Across Nations. Thousand Oaks CA: Sage. Hofstede, Geert. Cultural Dimensions: Arab World. http://www.geert-hofstede.com/hofstede_arab_world.shtml Accessed 12th July 2010 Lambert, W. ―Language as a Factor in Intergroup Relations‖, in Giles, H and St. Clair, R. Language and Social Psychology. Maamouri, Mohamad. (1998) Language Education and Human Development: Arabic Diglossia and its Importance to the Quality of Education in the Arab Region. Philadelphia, PA: The World Bank/International Literacy Institute. McKeown, J. (2005). Toward a professional learning community: societal and cultural factors affecting the development of informed professional practice at Turkish Foreign National Schools. Education doctoral dissertation: Warnborough College, Canterbury, UK. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Mcniff, J. Lomax, P. and Whitehead, J. (2003) You and Your Action Research. (2nd edition) Oxford: Routledge. Saphier, Jon. and Gower, R. (1997) The Skillful Teacher: Building Your Teaching Skills. (5th edition) Carlise, MA: Research for Better Teaching. Schôn, D. (1987) Educating the Reflective Practitioner: Toward a New Design for Teaching and Learning in the Professions. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass. Schôn, D. (1983) The Reflective Practitioner: How Professionals Think in Action. London: Maurice Temple Smith. Wight, S. (2004) Language Policy and Language Planning: From nationalism to globalisation. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. 699 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 104 Title A name given to the resource Building a community of shared practice by localizing externally-derived professional development in educational reform‘ Author Author McKeown, John Diboll,, Michael Abstract A summary of the resource. This research focuses on sociolinguistic aspects of education reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) region and the strategies by which the achievement of ‗linguistic convergence‘ and corresponding ‗cultural convergence‘ or ‗optimal convergence‘ can enhance in-service teachers‘ Continuing Professional Development (CPD) participant learning. This professional reflection, situated within the evolving context of reform underway in Bahrain, is based on research conducted at the Bahrain Teachers College (an autonomous professional college founded in 2008 within the University of Bahrain) during 2008-2010. The data, gathered from in-service CPD modules with mid-career Bahraini teachers, includes a wide range of practice-based sources including surveys, interviews, focus groups, and observation. Managing the shift from externally-prepared in-service CDP, toward contextualizing the materials, curriculum, and program delivery to the cultural, social, and educational environment of Bahrain is challenging. Developing ―ownership‖ of new approaches to learning, can make effectively localize the training at the classroom level. The data points to ways that balance the learning needs of local in-service teachers with the internationalizing imperatives of multinational education consultancy: Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2011-05 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e2f982f5faa0ff39bc2ec4834708b84d.pdf c964cc39c5b16a867f85a64480e95215 PDF Text Text 1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo Building Awareness of Discourse Structure Through Teaching Reading Strategies in English for Legal Purposes Class Ivana Lukica Department for Foreign Languages Faculty of Law, University of Zagreb ivana.lukica@pravo.hr Abstract: Research has been carried out for several decades on what makes some students more successful in foreign language reading than others. It was established that good readers possess greater awareness of discourse structure, meaning they are able to recognize the signalling mechanisms which give clues to the ways the text is organized (Grabe, 2009). Discourse structure awareness is seen as a type of metalinguistic awareness which also includes knowledge of reading strategies and their appropriate use in order to resolve reading problems and properly interpret text information. Our research was based on the following hypothesis: explicit teaching of reading strategies in English for Legal Purposes class will enhance students' awareness of discourse structure as well as reading comprehension. The data was collected through the SORS (Survey of Reading Strategies) questionnaire (Mokhtari & Sheory, 2002), a reading comprehension test developed for this research and a semistructured interview to check how students perceive the reading process and discourse structure before and after strategies instruction. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistical procedures and the results fully confirmed our hypothesis: the subjects (N=20) achieved better results on the reading comprehension test and reported easier identification and interpretation of discourse markers. Key words: reading strategies, English for Legal Purposes Introduction In times of increasing globalization, free flow of goods and work force and especially Croatia‘s accession to the EU, Croatian lawyers find themselves in great need of foreign languages, English in particular. Reading comprehension and interpreting legal texts are among most needed skills for practising lawyers in Croatia (Lukica & Kaldonek, in print) second only to speaking skills. As the role of the English for Specific Purposes (ESP) is to cater to students‘ specific, work-related needs in the context of the particular environment (Jordan, 1997) it follows that English for Legal Purpose (ELP) in Croatia should focus on facilitating better and easier understanding of various legal texts. We believe this can be done through teaching reading strategies. Many definitions of reading strategies have been brought forth since the beginning of research on reading strategies thirty years ago as well as several taxonomies (Anderson, 1991; Cohen, 1990; Paris et al., 1991). For the purpose of this study, we cite Singhal‘s definition as it points clearly to the purpose of reading strategies ―Reading strategies are processes used by the learner to enhance reading comprehension and overcome comprehension failures.‖ (2001, p. 2). As for taxonomies, we will follow Mokhtari and Sheorey‘s (2002) classification of reading strategies into global, problem solving and support strategies as it has been developed for second/foreign language students. Regardless of the lack of a single definition or categorisation of reading strategies, research shows the usefulness and benefits of explicit teaching of reading strategies in foreign language classrooms. Kern‘s research (1989) was based on Directed Reading and Thinking Activities approach and yielded positive results on reading comprehension scores of French L2 university students. Similar results were achieved in Carrel, Pharis, and Liberto‘s (1989) study of English L2 university students adopting Experience-Text-Relationship method and semantic mapping method. Song‘s study (1998) involving English L2 university students used the Reciprocal Teaching method which also led to increase in reading comprehension. In a recent study involving ESP university students, Moghadam (2008) showed positive results of explicit teaching of reading strategies using Janzen and Stoller‘s approach (1998). Research has also shown that improvements in reading comprehension can result from discourse awareness and discourse-structure instruction (Grabe, 2009). Discourse-structure awareness is seen as ―a type of metalinguistic awareness at the text level‖ (Nagy in Grabe, 2009, p. 243) which includes knowledge of reading strategies and their appropriate use in order to resolve reading problems and properly interpret text information. With regard to discourse-structure awareness instruction Grabe (2009) names three lines of instruction: teaching direct signalling of discourse structures, teaching the use of graphic organizers and teaching reading strategies, all of which improve discourse awareness and reading comprehension. 643 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo The aim of this study was to confirm the following hypothesis: explicit teaching of reading strategies in ELP class will enhance students‘ awareness of discourse structure as well as reading comprehension. Method of the study This study was designed using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative method was used to analyse the answers to the questionnaire and the comprehension test, and the qualitative method was represented in the use of a semi-structured interview. As each method has its advantages and disadvantages, using more than one method ensures greater credibility and dependability of results (Mackey & Gass, 2005). Participants 20 practising lawyers participated in the study. They were attending the same ELP course at the Centre for Languages and Law at the Faculty of Law in Zagreb, Croatia. The placement test which they were required to complete prior to beginning the ELP course showed they posses a lower-intermediate level of general English knowledge. All participants had been studying English for a minimum of 8 years. Four participants were male and the rest female, aged 22 to 45, but neither gender nor age were considered a variable in this study Instruments Two instruments were used in this study: a reading comprehension test designed for the purpose of the study and Survey of Reading Strategies questionnaire (SORS, Mokhtari & Sheory, 2002). The reading comprehension test consisted of texts taken from an ELP course book suitable for lower-intermediate level followed by 30 questions each carrying one point. Five types of questions were used (yes/no questions, true or false questions, alternative questions, wh-questions and multiple choice questions) to cover six types of comprehension according to the taxonomy of Day and Park (2005). The SORS questionnaire is used to measure the perceived use of three categories of reading strategies: global strategies (e.g. using typographical features of a text to identify key information), problem solving strategies (e.g. adjusting reading speed according to the text one reads) and support strategies (e.g. going back and forth in the text to find relationships among ideas). It consists of 30 items each using a 5-point Likert scale (1-I never do this; 5-I always do this). This questionnaire was chosen because it was developed especially for adolescent and adult students of foreign languages (Mokhtari & Sheory, 2002). It was translated from the English original to the participant‘s mother tongue Croatian and two separate back-translations were done to ensure the accuracy of the Croatian translation. Both instruments were administered before and after the reading strategies instruction to determine the possible effect such instruction has on test results and the level of perceived strategy use. The instruments were administered during a regular ELP lesson which lasts 90 minutes. 60 minutes were allowed for the test and 15 minutes for the SORS. The semi-structured interview A semi-structured interview was chosen because it allows a greater degree of freedom in both administration and interpretation. The researcher is not limited by a strict set of predetermined questions, but can adapt their questions to the participants‘ answers. A semi-structured interview also gives an in-depth view of students‘ attitudes and ideas about reading in a foreign language and their interpretation of the problems they face while reading legal texts in English. Interviews were conducted individually at the time best suited to the participants and lasted between thirty and forty minutes depending on how elaborate students‘ answers were. Interviews were conducted both prior and after reading strategies instruction. Reading strategies instruction For the purpose of this study we adopted the Styles- and Strategies-Based Instruction (SSBI) method of teaching which is defined as ―a form of learner-focused language teaching that explicitly combines styles and strategy training activities with everyday classroom language instruction (Cohen, 2009). Teachers are instructed to follow five components of this method in preparing lessons: strategy preparation, strategy awareness-raising, strategy instruction, strategy practice and personalization of strategies (Cohen & Weaver, 2006). SSBI allows the teacher to either start with the course material, a set of strategies to be taught or insert strategies spontaneously into the lessons. The role of the teacher is that of a guide who helps students become more aware of the language learning process, to introduce various strategies, show students how to use them and encourage students to use them in a manner which is best suited for their learning needs which we believe leads to higher motivation as one of the key components for effective language learning (Dôrnyei, 2001, 2005). The strategies that were chosen for instruction in this study were the 30 strategies listed in Mokhtari and Sheorey. In addition, we decided to teach direct signalling of discourse structure as well as graphic organizers as they have been proven to increase both awareness of discourse structure and reading comprehension (Carrell, 1985; Carrell, Pharis, & Liberto, 1989; Jiang & Grabe, 2007). The instruction was part of a regular one-year course in legal English which consisted of 35 ninety minutes sessions, one session per week. 644 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo Data Analysis Process Reading comprehension tests were corrected and points calculated for each student. The results of the pre-instruction tests and post-instruction tests have been compared and individual gains determined. The SORS was analysed according to the developer‘s instructions: the total mean was calculated for each student as well as means for three categories of strategies. The means were interpreted according to the scale offered by Oxford and Burry-Stock: high use (mean 3.5 or higher), moderate use (mean between 2.5 and 3.4) and low use (mean of 2.4 or lower) (Mokhtari & Sheory, 2002). Two sets of results (pre-instruction and post-instruction) were compared to determine the increase in perceived use of reading strategies. The interviews were tape-recorded and later transcribed. The data obtained in the interviews were distributed into the following categories of ELP reading comprehension problems: legal terminology (technical terms, archaic term), text structure (long sentences, complex structure) and poor general English knowledge (grammar and vocabulary) in order to get a better idea of how students‘ perceive reading in a foreign language as well as reading legal texts in English. Findings and discussion Pre-instruction results The average number of reading comprehension test points was 20 out of 30 (66%). However, there were students who gave correct answers to only 16 questions and those who correctly answered as many as 25 questions. We believe this large gap is due to some students using more reading strategies and being more aware of discourse structure. This belief was corroborated by results of the interview. Namely, students who scored lower or the reading comprehension test spoke of series of problems they encountered while reading the text in all three predetermined categories (legal terminology, text structure, poor general English knowledge). Long, complex sentences were the biggest problem followed by unknown words. When asked how they attempted to solve these problems, these students said they tried to ―deduce the meaning of unknown words from the context, but there were simply too many unknown words‖ which led to frustration and giving up. They also attempted to divide the long sentences into smaller units, but that had not helped as they ―could not recognize the difference between subject and object of the sentence‖ or ―follow the train of thought of the author‖. They also mentioned they are much better at reading text which are not law-related and complained about the complexity of legal English. Students who scored better on the reading comprehension test had similar complaints about the overall complexity of legal texts, but they were not as easily discouraged from finding the correct answer as they felt more confident in their knowledge of English. They were willing to ―read problematic sections as many times as necessary‖ and they ―looked for the message, not what each word means‖. These points to higher strategies and discourse awareness as well as to difference in understanding the process of reading and utilizing not just decoding but constructing meaning as well. In terms of the SORS, the mean for the whole group was 3.7 showing very high use of reading strategies in all three categories which was not in line with poor test results. Namely, we expected the test results to be explained by low use of strategies. However, explanation was provided by the students‘ answers to the interview questions. One of the students said: ―Honestly, when I read texts for work, I don‘t remember half of these strategies. There are just few which I always use, like using a dictionary. And reading slower. I try to guess also even though you shouldn‘t in law.‖ Several students admitted they wanted to appear better then they actually were and several wanted to impress their teacher (who was also conducting the study). This points to two problems in methodology, the first being unreliability of questionnaires as students write what they think they do and not what they actually do while reading, and the second the teacher conducting the research. On the other hand, the actual situation of reading strategy use was detected in the interviews and students were more comfortable talking to their teacher than an unknown person. Post-instruction results The results of the post-instruction reading comprehension test showed improvement of the group as well as individual students, thus improving our hypothesis. The average number of correct answers was 24 out of 30 (80%) and the individual results raged from 19 to 27 points. The gap was still obvious but it is important to notice that each student scored higher on this test than on the pre-instruction test, three points in average. Equally important, all of the students reported higher self-confidence in reading legal texts. The majority of students attributed this to the method of instruction and only two students said they were more confident because they had been attending the course regularly and did not indicate the connection to the teaching method. When asked why they thought reading-strategies instruction helped them increase their understanding of legal texts, the students either mentioned ―knowing more strategies‖ or the explicit nature of the method of instruction. For example, a few students said they now have ―more tools to help them read in English‖, while others called them ―new techniques for solving problems‖. They also spoke very positively about SSBI because it gives them ―opportunity to practise and experiment with different strategies trying to figure out which helps best in which situation.‖ Because they are explicitly told what discourse structure and discourse markers are, they ―know what to look for when reading‖. One student gave a particularly long, heartfelt explanation which 645 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo we are citing in full as it shows the extent of benefits SSBI instruction has on a student‘s understanding of the reading process and on reading motivation: ―You (the teacher) didn‘t assume we know all this stuff about languages like what is cohesion and coherence, because we don‘t. It doesn‘t come natural to lawyers. We are not language experts. At first I thought it was a bit…what the word is when you think somebody is stupid…I thought that you thought we were all stupid because you were explaining everything step by step. I didn‘t really believe talking about my problems would help. Or this new method. I just wanted somebody to help me read better because I have to do that every day and I feel bad about it every day. But I thought there is some kind of magic that the teacher will do and I will read better, you know. Or that some people are just better in English and they can think in English and understand it. I was a little lazy. I didn‘t want to work so much. Reading should be easier. It‘s not easy still, but it‘s better. And I think I will be even better if I remember the strategies.‖ The results of the SORS with regard to overall use of strategies show a decrease of strategy use (M=3.0). However, we should keep in mind the fact that the results of the pre-instruction SORS were influenced by the students‘ wish to represent themselves in better light. In the post-instruction interview, students‘ said they were precise in their SORS answers. The post-instruction result shows moderate use of reading strategies, but students reported using more global strategies than before which is in line with the intended shift in the approach to reading. When asked to identify the most useful strategies mentioned in the SORS, students‘ answers varied, but they all stressed the usefulness of teaching direct signalling and graphic organizers as being particularly helpful with legal English. One student said: ―I know now that I have to pay attention to how words are connected in a sentence and how sentences are connected in a text. Not just look at them in isolation.‖ and another few that ―graphic organizers are very useful because they help in organizing information and representing it more clearly because they are visual‖. Conclusion and recommendations The results of the study confirmed our hypothesis that explicit teaching or reading strategies in English for Legal Purposes class will enhance students‘ awareness of discourse structure as well as reading comprehension. Each student achieved a better result on the post-instruction test in comparison with the preinstruction test and eighteen out of twenty students attributed this increase in reading comprehension to the method of instruction. All students reported higher awareness of discourse structure in the post-instruction interview as a result of explicit teaching of reading strategies. A significant increase in reading motivation was also observed in the post-instruction interview as a result of explicit teaching of reading strategies instruction. A problem was detected in administering the pre-instruction questionnaire as some students did not provide entirely truthful answers. Imprecise answers could have been provided unintentionally as well as students were reporting on what they believe they do while reading and were not observed during reading. As such problems could be anticipated, a semi-structured interview was chosen to provide a deeper understanding of students‘ awareness of reading, reading strategies and discourse structure. A suggestion for further research is to instruct the participants in verbal protocols in order to check reading strategies use during the reading process. The researcher also being a teacher was a problem in that it influenced the students‘ answers to the preinstruction questionnaire. However, it also proved an advantage because students reported it was easier for them to talk to the teacher about their reading problems than to somebody they do not know. Motivation for reading proved to be a very important factor in our study. Although English for Legal Purposes students are primarily motivated to attend classes because they need ELP at work, they also showed various degrees of reading anxiety or reading confidence which has to be kept in mind for further research. These can be conducted to ascertain if reading motivation increases using other teaching methods in ELP classes and is it affected by other factors such as the teacher or the learning environment. As SSBI proved very successful in an ELP class consisting of practising lawyers, another line of research could be investigating its usefulness for ELP classes for university students of law in Croatia, which consist of a significantly larger number of students, as well as its usefulness in other areas of ESP. 646 �1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo References: Anderson, N. (1991). Individual differences in strategy use in a second language reading and testing. The Modern Language Journal, 75 (4), 460-472. Retrieved on February 10, 2009 from www.jstor.org/stable/329425 Carrell, P. L. (1985). Facilitating ESL reading by teaching text structure. TESOL Quarterly, 19, 727-752. Retrieved on March 15, 2009 from www.jsotr.org/stable/3586683 Carrell, P. L., Pharis, B. G., & Liberto, J. C. (1989). Metacognitive strategy training for ESL reading. TESOL Quarterly, 23 (4), 647-678. Retrieved on September 25, 2009 from www.jstor.org/stable/3587536 Cohen, A. (1990). Language learning: Insights for learners, teachers, and researchers. New York: Newbury House. Cohen, A. (2009). Styles- and strategies-based instruction. Retrieved January 8, 2010 from www.carla.umn.edu Cohen, A., & Weaver, S. J. (2006). Styles- and strategies-sased instruction: A teacher‘s guide. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, The Center for Advanced Research on Language Acquisition. Day, R. R, & Park, J. (2005). Developing reading comprehension questions. Reading in a foreign language, 17 (1), 60-73. Retrieved on January 4, 2010 from http://nflrc.hawaii.edu/rfl Dôrnyei, Z. (2001). Teaching and researching motivation. New York: Longman. Dôrnyei, Z. (2005). The psychology of the language learner. Mahwah, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. Grabe, W. (2009). Reading in a second language: Moving from theory to practice. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Janzen, J., & Stoller, F. L. (1998). Integrating strategic reading in L2 instruction. Reading in a foreign language, 12 (1), 251-269. Retrieved on December 12, 2009 from http://nflrc.hawaii.edu/rfl Jiang, X, & Grabe, W. (2007). Graphic organizers in reading instruction: Research finding and issues. Reading in a foreign language, 19 (1), 34-55. Retrieved on December 12, 2009 from http://nflrc.hawaii.edu/rfl Jordan, R. R. (1997). English for academic purposes. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Kern, R. G. (1989). Second language reading strategy instruction: Its effects on comprehension and word inference Ability. The Modern Language Journal, 73 (2), 135-149. Retrieved on July 20, 2009 from www.jstor.org/stable/326569 Koda, K. (2005). Insights into second language reading: A cross-linguistic approach. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Lukica, I. & Kałdonek, A. The value of language and content needs analysis in English for Legal Purposes class: Example from Croatia. A paper presented at the 1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics. Sarajevo, 2011. Mackey, A., & Gass, S. M. (2005). Second language research: Methodology and design. Mahwah, New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. Moghadam, M. K. (2008). The effect of strategies-based instruction on student‘s reading comprehension of ESP Texts. English for Specific Purposes World, 17 (7). Retrieved on April 16, 2009 from www.esp-world.info Mokhtari, K. & Sheorey, R. (2002). Measuring ESL students‘ awareness of reading strategies. Journal of Developmental Education, 25 (3), 2-10. Retrieved on June 12, 2009 from http://webpages.maine207.org Paris, S. G., Wasik, B. A., & Turner, J. C. (1991). The development of strategic reading. In R. Barr, M. L. Kamil, P. B. Mosenthal, & P. D. Pearson (Eds.), Handbook of reading research (Vol. 2; 609-640). New York:Longman. Singhal, M. (2001). Reading proficiency, reading strategies, metacognitive awareness and L2 readers. The Reading Matrix, 1 (1), 1-23. Retrieved on September 16, 2009 from www.readingmatrix.com/archives.html Song, M. (1998). Teaching reading strategies in an ongoing EFL university reading classroom. Asian Journal of English Language Teaching, 8, 41-54. Retrieved on February 2, 2009 from www.cuhk.edu.hk 647 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 96 Title A name given to the resource Building Awareness of Discourse Structure Through Teaching Reading Strategies in English for Legal Purposes Class Author Author Lukica, Ivana Abstract A summary of the resource. Research has been carried out for several decades on what makes some students more successful in foreign language reading than others. It was established that good readers possess greater awareness of discourse structure, meaning they are able to recognize the signalling mechanisms which give clues to the ways the text is organized (Grabe, 2009). Discourse structure awareness is seen as a type of metalinguistic awareness which also includes knowledge of reading strategies and their appropriate use in order to resolve reading problems and properly interpret text information. Our research was based on the following hypothesis: explicit teaching of reading strategies in English for Legal Purposes class will enhance students' awareness of discourse structure as well as reading comprehension. The data was collected through the SORS (Survey of Reading Strategies) questionnaire (Mokhtari & Sheory, 2002), a reading comprehension test developed for this research and a semistructured interview to check how students perceive the reading process and discourse structure before and after strategies instruction. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistical procedures and the results fully confirmed our hypothesis: the subjects (N=20) achieved better results on the reading comprehension test and reported easier identification and interpretation of discourse markers. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2011-05 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3538 Title A name given to the resource BUILDING ENGLISH Author Author Kešetović, Selma Abstract A summary of the resource. This paper is a sociolinguistic and sociopsychological analysis relating to the attitudes of Civil Engineering Students in Tuzla towards the English Language. The empirical research will be conducted in the form of a survey. It involves 40 students from the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Tuzla. The survey will be carried in February 2014. The aim of this paper is to determine the types and features of attitudes towards English regarding their age, gender and level of education. A standard computer program SPSS will be used in the statistical data processing of responses. It is expected that the results of the survey will support the initial hypothesis that attitudes towards English are positive, that respondents will recognise English its global status and, the most important, that respondents perceive English as the language of business. Keywords: Language Attitudes, Globalisation, Gender, Business English, Age, Gender Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English