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International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic
Growth Using Panel Data
Nihat Taş
İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey
tasnihat@gmail.com
Ali Hepşen
İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey
alihepsen@yahoo.com
Emrah Önder
İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey
emrah@İstanbul.edu.tr
During last 10 years some EU countries had economic instability. They have
short and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing,
globalization etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic
indicators of EU countries’ economic growth using panel data approach.
Static and dynamic panel data models were used for determining the
effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross domestic
product (GDP) of EU member countries including Austria, Belgium,
Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg,
Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain,
Sweden, United Kingdom; acceding country: Croatia; and candidate
countries: Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia and Turkey. While dependent variable of analyze is gross
domestic product (volume), the independent variables are current account
balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue,
general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation,
average consumer prices, population, total investment, unemployment
rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods
and services. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data (cross
sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this research involves
33 EU member and EU candidate countries (units). The effects of 12
macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product volume were
examined. The paper also empirically analyzes the negative impacts of
global financial crisis (the 2007 U.S. Subprime Financial Crisis) into EU
member and candidate countries’ economic growth during the 2002–2012
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
periods (time series). In this context, the paper explains what a financial
crisis is, the factors that promote a financial crisis, and the dynamics of a
financial crisis. Thus, the effects of macroeconomic parameters are
analyzed using panel data series. The findings of this research are
especially useful for EU candidate countries such as Iceland, Montenegro,
Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey for
developing convenient economic strategies.
Keywords: European Union and Candidate Countries, Financial Crisis,
Macro Economic Parameters, Panel Data Analysis, Gross Domestic Product,
Economic Growth.
231
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International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth Using Panel Data
Nihat Taş
Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
tasnihat@gmail.com
Ali Hepşen
Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
alihepsen@yahoo.com
Emrah Önder
Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey
emrah@istanbul.edu.tr
Abstract
During last 10 years some EU countries had economic instability. They have short
and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing, globalization
etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic indicators of EU countries’
economic growth using panel data approach. Static linear panel data models were
used for determining the effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross
domestic product (GDP) of EU member countries including Austria, Belgium,
Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta,
Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden,
United Kingdom; acceding country: Croatia; and candidate countries: Iceland,
Serbia and Turkey. While dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product
(volume), the independent variables are current account balance, general
government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total
expenditure, gross national savings, inflation (average consumer prices),
population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and
services, volume of imports of goods and services. The analysis proposed is based
on a panel data (cross sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this
research involves 31 EU member and EU candidate countries (cross sectional
units). The effects of 11 macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product
volume were examined. The paper also empirically analyzes the negative impacts
of global financial crisis (the 2007 U.S. Subprime Financial Crisis) into EU member
and candidate countries’ economic growth during the 2002–2012 periods (time
series). In this context, the paper explains what a financial crisis is, the factors that
promote a financial crisis, and the dynamics of a financial crisis. Thus, the effects of
macroeconomic parameters are analyzed using panel data series. The findings of
this research are especially useful for EU candidate countries such as Iceland,
Serbia and Turkey for developing convenient economic strategies.
Keywords: European Union and Candidate Countries, Financial Crisis, Macro
Economic Parameters, Panel Data Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Economic
Growth
Introduction
The relationship between economic growth and macroeconomic indicators has long been a
popular issue of debate in the literature of economic development. In this content, the
primary purpose of this research is to analyze macroeconomic indicators of EU member,
acceding and candidate countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Annual
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
data are used for the period 2002 to 2012. The sample period is dependent on annual data
availability. The data was gathered from the International Monetary Fund world economic
outlook data base.
Beine et al. (2011) proposed new panel data approach for examined the impact of skilled
emigration on human capital accumulation. The data was covering 147 countries during
the period 1975–2000. Predictions were tested using dynamic regression models. They
found that skilled migration prospects foster human capital accumulation in low-income
countries. Bortolotti et al. (2003) determined the reasons why governments privatize, and
the size and extent of privatization processes around the world with using a panel of 34
countries over the 1977 – 1999 period. They identified market, budget and institutional
constraints affecting privatization. Lee and Chang (2007) applied a new panel data
stationary testing procedure in order to re-investigate the dynamic interactions between
energy consumption per capita and real GDP per capita in 22 developed and 18 developing
countries. They found that in individual countries, structural breaks occur near other
variables in both developed and developing countries because of a tight relationship
between energy consumption and GDP. Sukiassyan (2007) attempted to empirically
evaluate that relationship with data from the transition economies of Central and Eastern
Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. He examined various dimensions of
the growth-inequality debate. His findings for transition countries indicated a strong,
negative contemporaneous growth-inequality relationship. Lee and Chang (2008) applied
the new heterogeneous panel cointegration technique to re-investigate the long-run
movements and causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth
for OECD and nonOECD countries for the 1990–2002 period. They determined that
tourism development has a greater impact on GDP in nonOECD countries than in OECD
countries. Haas and Lelyveld (2006) examined whether foreign and domestic banks in
Central and Eastern Europe react differently to business cycles and banking crises. Their
panel dataset comprised data of more than 250 banks for the period 1993–2000. They
showed that during crisis periods domestic banks contract their credit. In contrast,
Greenfield foreign banks play a stabilizing role by keeping their credit base stable. Also
they found a significant and negative relationship between home country economic growth
and host country credit by foreign bank subsidiaries. Tsoukas (2011) used a panel of five
Asian economies – Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand – over the period
1995–2007 for analyzing the links between firm survival and financial development. He
found that country-level indicators of financial development have an important role to play
in influencing firm survival and large firms would benefit the most from developments in
the stock market, while small firms are most severely affected from high levels of financial
intermediation.
Macro-Economic Indicators
Our model comprises twelve variables: while dependent variable of analyze is gross
domestic product (GDP); the independent variables are current account balance, general
government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total
expenditure, gross national savings, inflation (average consumer prices), population, total
investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of
imports of goods and services. Gross Domestic Product represents the economic health of a
country. It presents a sum of a country's production which consists of all purchases of
goods and services produced by a country and services used by individuals, firms,
foreigners and the governing bodies. GDP consists of consumer spending, investment
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
expenditure, government spending and net exports hence it portrays an all-inclusive picture
of an economy because of which it provides an insight to investors which highlights the
trend of the economy by comparing GDP levels as an index. GDP is not only used as an
indicator for most governments and economic decision-makers for planning and policy
formulation; but also it helps the investors to manage their portfolios by providing them
with guidance about the state of the economy. On the other hand, it is good measure for an
economy and with improvement in research and quality of data, statisticians and
governments are trying to find out measures to strengthen GDP and make it a
comprehensive indicator of national income.
International standards regarding the compilation of balance of payments statistics are
described in the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual prepared by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to provide guidance to member
countries. In a general sense, the balance of payments is a statistical statement that
systematically records all the economic transactions between residents of a country
(Central Government, monetary authority, banks, other sector) and nonresidents for a
specific time period. The balance of payments statistics are classified under two major
groups: “Current Account” and “Capital and Financial Account”. In summary, the current
account covers all transactions that involve real sources (including volume of exports
and imports of goods and services,) and current transfers; the capital and financial
accounts show how these transactions are financed (by means of capital transfer or
investment in financial instruments). As mentioned in the European Economic series
(Current Account Surpluses in the EU, 9/2012, p.10), current account deficits and
surpluses are not necessarily macroeconomic imbalances in the sense of developments
which are adversely affecting, or have the potential to affect the proper functioning of
economies, of the monetary union, or on a wider scale. Deficits and surpluses are a natural
consequence of economic interactions between countries. They show to which extent a
country relies on borrowing from the rest of the world or how much of its resources it
lends abroad. In this way, external borrowing and lending allows countries to trade
consumption over time: a country with a current account surplus transfers consumption
from today to tomorrow by investing abroad. In turn, a country with a current account
deficit can increase its consumption or investment today but must transfer future income
abroad to redeem its external debt. Deficits and surpluses can thus simply be the result of
an appropriate allocation of savings, taking into account different investment opportunities
across countries. Differences in economic prospects lead to differences in saving behavior,
with brighter expectations reducing the tendency of economic agents to save and hence
contributing to the accumulation of deficits. In particular, countries with a rapidly ageing
population may find it opportune to save today (i.e. run surpluses) to smooth consumption
over time. On the other hand, current account deficits and surpluses are part of the
adjustment process in a monetary union. They absorb asymmetric shocks in the absence of
independent monetary policy and nominal exchange rate adjustment.
This paper also attempts to analyze the correlation that exists between GDP and inflation.
It is widely believed that there is a relationship between the two. The problem is that there
are disagreements as to what that relationship is or how it operates. As a result, when
governments make decisions based on these pieces of information, the outcome often
cannot be guaranteed. Exploration of the relationship between GDP and inflation is best
begun by developing an understanding of each term individually. As mentioned above,
GDP is an acronym for gross domestic product, which is the value of a nation's goods and
services during a specified period. This figure is generally regarded as an important
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
indicator of an economy's health. Inflation refers the rate at which the general level of
prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.
In determining the economic position of a country is through a comparison of general
government gross debt, revenue, total expenditure, national savings and total investments
to the gross domestic product of the country. For instance, a low government gross debt to
GDP percentage is usually an indication of economic health, while a high debt to GDP
percentage can indicate financial trouble for a country.
Panel Data Analysis
"Panel Data" is set of data obtained by observation of the characteristics of a variety of
units (cross-sectional variables) over time (Ahn and Moon, 2001). Panel data set have both
cross-sectional and time-series dimensions. The size of the time series is formed by
monitoring the same cross-section units during a given period (Wooldridge, 2009).
When each subject (cross sectional unit) has the same number of obsevations, this type of
panel is called a balanced panel data set. If some subjects have different number of
observations, this situation is known as the unbalanced data case (Wooldridge, 2009).
Panel data sets that thousands of cross sectional units observed through the time are used in
many micro-economic researches (Hill et al., 2008). Panel data provide more informative
data, more variability, more degrees of freedom, less collinearity among the variables and
more efficiency (Baltagi, 2010).
Panel data analysis can be considered as a combination of regression and time series
analysis (Frees, 2004). This analysis is based on repetitive variance models because the
observations of the units are repetitive through time dimension (Pazarlıoğlu, 2001).
The main superiority of panel data due to working with the one dimensional crosssectional series or repeated cross sectional series that same units are not observed through
the time is to loosen the standard assumptions (Maddala and Lahiri, 2009).
By studying the repeated cross section of observations Panel data can better detect and
measure effects that cannot be observed in pure cross section or pure time series data
(Gujarati and Porter, 2009).
Analyzing the observations of cross section and time series provide more flexibility
compared to when used them separately by increasing the quantity and quality of data. In
panel data analysis, the cross-sectional units are considered to be heterogeneous and
controlled for the variation (heterogeneity). Pure time series or cross section studies which
are not controlling this heterogeneity there run the risk of obtaining biased results. Panel
data are able to control variables which are subject or time invariant (Baltagi, 2010).
Because panel data has time based dynamics with the observations of cross sectional data
repeated through time, the effect of unmeasured variables can be controlled (Hsiao, 2003).
With the use of cross-sectional observations over time, panel data analysis provides more
clarification character, less collinearity and more degrees of freedom and efficiency than
only cross sectional analysis or time series analysis (Tarı, 2010).
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
In static panel data models, the covariance estimators (pooled panel data), fixed effects and
random effects estimators are widely used. When the cross-sectional units are
homogenous, pooled ordinary least squares panel model is used. In the presence of unitspecific or time-specific effects, in the case of assuming these effects to be fixed
parameters to be estimated, model is called as the fixed effects. The term “fixed effects”
expresses nonrandom quantities are accounted for the heterogeneity. If the subject specific
effects are assumed random and not correlated with the regressors (independent variables),
the model becomes random effects. These effects are included to the random effects model
as a component of the error term (Baltagi, 2010).
The panel models that do not have any lagged values of the dependent or/and independent
variables in the model as a regressor are called “static models”.
Fixed effects model and random effects model can be shown as follow:
Fixes Effects Model:
K
yit i k xkit uit ,
i 1,..., N ,
t 1,..., T
(1)
i 1,..., N ,
t 1,..., T
(2)
k 1
Random Effects Model
K
yit k xkit i uit ,
k 1
Index i differentiates the subjects and ranges from 1 to N. N is the number of subjects.
Each subject is observed T times and the index t differentiates the observation times
through 1 to T. K is the number of the explanatory (independent) variables.
Analyzing Macro Economic Indicators in Turkey Using Panel Data
Variables and Descriptive Statistics
In this study, used database consists of the panel data set of 31 countries for the 2002-2012
term. Dataset is a balanced panel and has NxTxk = 31x11x12 = 4092 observations. Each
variable has NxT = 31x11 = 341 observations.
Dependent variable is ngdp (Gross domestic product, *billion dollars) and there are 11
independent variables. Average value of ngdp for 31 countries is 504 billion dollars.
Independent variables and measuring units are listed in Table 1.
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Table 1: Independent Variables and Measuring Units
Code
bca_ngdpd
lp
lur
Variable
Current account balance
Population (*10,000,000)
Unemployment rate
pcpipch
tx_rpch
tm_rpch
ggxwdg_gr
Inflation, average consumer prices
Volume of exports of goods and services
Volume of imports of goods and services
Growth rate in general government gross
debt
Growth rate in general government revenue
Growth rate in general government total
expenditure
Gross national savings
Total investment
ggr_gr
ggx_gr
ngsd_ngd
nid_ngdp
Units
Percent of GDP
Persons
Percent of total labor
force
Percent change
Percent change
Percent change
Rate
Rate
Rate
Percent of GDP
Percent of GDP
Descriptive statistics for the variables used in the analysis are shown below in Table 2.
Descriptive statistics values are ordinary and there are not exceptional values in the dataset.
Table 2: Summary Statistics
Variable
Obs
Mean
ngdp
bca_ngdpd
lp
lur
pcpipch
tx_rpch
341
341
341
341
341
341
503.9614
-.029675
1.858403
.0883615
.0366609
.0511077
tm_rpch
ggxwdg_gr
ggr_gr
ggx_gr
ngsd_ngd
nid_ngdp
341
341
341
341
341
341
.0469935
1.097167
1.063697
1.066551
.1909255
.2206239
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
800.7973
.067328
2.357604
.0435064
.0385439
.0796323
4.303
-.28352
.0288
.01014
-.01706
-.23794
3640.727
.11852
8.252
.25552
.45134
.31648
.0990369
.1719402
.0779949
.0766898
.058724
.0508613
-.33327
.814583
.8267854
.7331372
-.04103
.09755
.29259
2.736609
1.470259
1.604453
.34076
.39959
Table 3 below displays the correlation coefficiencies between the variables. Highest
correlations among the independent variables are coefficient between tx_rpch and tm_rpch
which is 0.80; between bca_ngdpd and ngsd_ngd which is 0.68 and between ggr_gr and
ggx_gr which is 0.67.
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Table 3: Correlation Coefficiencies Between the Variables
ngdp bca_ng~d
ngdp
bca_ngdpd
lp
lur
pcpipch
tx_rpch
tm_rpch
ggxwdg_gr
ggr_gr
ggx_gr
ngsd_ngd
nid_ngdp
1.0000
0.2523
0.8671
-0.0561
-0.1781
-0.1143
-0.0812
-0.0745
-0.2088
-0.2049
0.0662
-0.2582
1.0000
0.1296
-0.1418
-0.3444
-0.1263
-0.1587
-0.1186
-0.4142
-0.4468
0.6783
-0.5400
lp
lur
pcpipch
tx_rpch
tm_rpch ggxwdg~r
1.0000
0.0814
0.0712
-0.0300
0.0121
-0.0601
-0.0224
-0.0700
-0.0444
-0.2228
1.0000
0.0973
0.0952
-0.0401
0.0332
-0.0132
-0.0945
-0.2647
-0.1154
1.0000
0.2085
0.1792
0.2055
0.5445
0.4881
-0.2286
0.1894
1.0000
0.8007
-0.1519
0.5022
0.1830
0.0428
0.2140
1.0000
-0.3249
0.6518
0.3087
0.1004
0.3200
1.0000
-0.1608
0.1003
-0.1634
-0.0270
ggr_gr
1.0000
0.6678
-0.1201
0.4066
Table 4 (continued)
ggx_gr ngsd_ngd nid_ngdp
ggx_gr
ngsd_ngd
nid_ngdp
1.0000
-0.1760
0.3872
1.0000
0.2491
1.0000
Figure 1 shows the panel line graph for the dependent variable ngdp.
0
ngdp
1000 2000 3000 4000
Figure 1: Panel Line Graph for the Dependent Variable ngdp.
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
t
id = 1/id = 16/id = 31
id = 2/id = 17
id = 3/id = 18
id = 4/id = 19
id = 5/id = 20
id = 6/id = 21
Static Linear Panel Data Models
id = 7/id = 22
id = 8/id = 23
id = 9/id = 24
id = 10/id = 25
To determine the relationship idbetween
the ngdp and the independent
variables, the
= 11/id = 26
id = 12/id = 27
effects model and the random effects
model
static linear
id = 13/id
= 28 which are the most
id common
= 14/id = 29
data analysis models are used.id ngdp
is
modeled
as
a
function
of
11
factors.
The
= 15/id = 30
fixed
panel
fixed
effects model is
ngdpit i 1bca _ ngdpdit 2lpit 3lurit 4 pcpipchit 5tx _ rpchit 6tm _ rpchit
7 ggxwdg _ grit 8 ggr _ grit 9 ggx _ grit 10 ngsd _ ngdit 11nid _ ngdpit uit
7
(3)
�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
and the random effects model is
ngdpit 1bca _ ngdpdit 2lpit 3lurit 4 pcpipchit 5tx _ rpchit 6tm _ rpchit
7 ggxwdg _ grit 8 ggr _ grit 9 ggx _ grit 10 ngsd _ ngdit 11nid _ ngdpit i uit
(4)
i stands for the country number, t stands for the year, uit is the error term for the fixed
effects model and i uit is the composite error term for the random effects model. If the
country effects are uncorrelated with the regressors, they are known as random effects. In
the random effects model, because there is no correlation between the country specific
effects and the regressors, country specific effects are parameterized as additional random
disturbances. If the country effects are correlated with the regressors, then they are known
as fixed effects. If there is no country specific effect in the model, then the model becomes
as the pooled ordinary least squares regression which is
ngdpit 1bca _ ngdpdit 2lpit 3lurit 4 pcpipchit 5tx _ rpchit 6tm _ rpchit
7 ggxwdg _ grit 8 ggr _ grit 9 ggx _ grit 10 ngsd _ ngdit 11nid _ ngdpit uit
Firstly, the null hypothesis that constant terms are equal across countries is tested to
determine if the pooled ols regression will produce inconsistent estimates. Pooling test
examines whether the intercepts take on a common value α and also known as the test for
heterogeneity. Hypothesis is tested with F test
Table 5: Testing for the Country Specific Effects
H 0 : 1 2 ... N 0
F 30; 299 53.51 prob F 0.0000
The p value is 0.0000. Null hypothesis is rejected. This provides strong evidence for the
case for retaining country specific effects in the model specification. So, the pooled
ordinary least squares model is inconsistent. The Pooled ols model (OLS_ALL), the fixed
effects model (FE_ALL) and the random effects model (RE_ALL) results are shown
respectively in the Table 6.
8
(5)
�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Table 6: Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects and Random Effects Models
Variable
bca_ngdpd
lp
lur
pcpipch
tx_rpch
tm_rpch
ggxwdg_gr
ggr_gr
ggx_gr
ngsd_ngd
nid_ngdp
_cons
OLS_ALL
-2262.4661
4370.5294
0.6050
301.64765
8.1437477
0.0000
-1999.2071
453.07528
0.0000
-3815.9149
637.28187
0.0000
300.14161
410.33191
0.4650
-322.03228
394.86506
0.4153
28.853357
123.78207
0.8158
-719.79669
461.1889
0.1195
-5.9833848
356.36172
0.9866
2695.1518
4356.2346
0.5365
-2437.9341
4385.0456
0.5786
956.24528
473.76334
0.0444
FE_ALL
RE_ALL
-226.33522
1857.8225
0.9031
1307.4635
117.2346
0.0000
-1265.4896
423.61627
0.0030
433.10129
315.38152
0.1707
-96.767791
178.34864
0.5878
53.95787
170.45905
0.7518
64.067478
58.362333
0.2732
80.987428
201.15488
0.6875
-297.12541
160.88146
0.0658
799.33888
1837.575
0.6639
-535.27354
1876.4762
0.7756
-1708.2562
350.40975
0.0000
-1109.0438
2124.4992
0.6017
321.11738
21.354954
0.0000
-1035.926
445.29327
0.0200
-511.81024
345.09672
0.1380
7.3488318
203.62366
0.9712
-49.725872
194.31987
0.7980
50.45071
66.448925
0.4477
-85.169113
229.66851
0.7108
-270.85056
183.05769
0.1390
1138.2268
2106.3063
0.5889
-1057.3717
2146.4956
0.6223
326.62786
303.98464
0.2826
Also, the null hypothesis that the variances of the country specific effects are equal to zero
is tested by the Lagrange Multiplier test and the null hypothesis that the standard
deviations of the country specific effects are equal to zero is tested by the Likelihood Ratio
test. Results are given in the Table 7.
Table 7: The Lagrange Multiplier and the Likelihood Ratio Test Results
Lagrange Multiplier Test
Likelihood Ratio Test
H 0 : 0 (Pooled ols regression is
H 0 : 0 (Pooled ols regression is
appropriate.)
appropriate.)
2
i
i
LM 12 1014.36
12 460.78
prob 2 0.0000
9
prob 2 0.0000
�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Because there is country specific effects, pooled ols model shown in the first column is
inappropriate. Most of the regressors are not significant. Finally 3 of all independent
variables are significant and by using these regressors which are lp, lur and ggx_gr, the
fixed and the random effects models are estimated and the results are shown in the first two
coloumns of the Table 8 below.
Table 8: Static Linear Panel Data Models
Variable
lp
lur
ggx_gr
_cons
FE
RE
FE_RB
1197.3581
106.32105
0.0000
-1184.4394
333.84411
0.0004
-280.13589
135.07513
0.0389
-1317.7746
252.77713
0.0000
341.39549
26.803482
0.0000
-929.58167
357.12541
0.0092
-349.138
147.50442
0.0179
324.02372
192.98142
0.0931
1197.3581
403.34191
0.0058
-1184.4394
494.79103
0.0231
-280.13589
108.78589
0.0152
-1317.7746
721.32216
0.0777
FE_PCSE
285.99362
23.468885
0.0000
-1825.0088
353.80452
0.0000
-396.77413
124.34375
0.0014
542.47688
150.79341
0.0003
FE_DK
1197.3581
248.13309
0.0000
-1184.4394
230.59185
0.0000
-280.13589
71.993731
0.0005
-1317.7746
474.06457
0.0093
The random effects model specifies the country specific effects as a random draw that is
uncorrelated with the regressors and the overall error term. The random effects estimator
uses the assumption that the country specific effects are uncorrelated with the regressors
and the extra orthogonality conditions are valid. This assumption is tested by using
Hausman test and the results are given in Table 9.
Table 9: Hausman Specification Test Results
Variable
Fixed
Effects
(b)
Random Effects
(B)
Difference
(b-B)
lp
lur
ggx_gr
1197.36
-1184.44
-280.14
.341.40
-929.58
-349.14
855.96
-254.86
69.00
H 0 : Differences in coefficients are not systematic. (the RE estimator
is consistent)
1
32 b B Vb VB b B 67.83
prob 2 0.0000
The Hausman test’s null hypothesis is rejected. Country specific effects are correlated with
the regressors. Because the random effects estimator is inconsistent, the fixed effects
model is the appropriate one.
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Before using the fixed effects model, diagnostic tests for the model assumption must be
performed. The most important assumptions of the fixed effects estimator are
homoscedasticity, no serial correlation and no contemporaneous correlation. Testing for
homoscedasticity is performed by using modified Wald test for the null hypothesis of
homoscedasticity against the heteroscedastic alternative. Testing for serial correlation is
performed by using Baltagi-Wu locally best invariant test, modified Bhargava et.al. Durbin
Watson test and Wooldridge’s serial correlation test respectively. For testing the absence
of the contemporaneous correlation assumption, Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier test,
Pesaran CD test, Friedman’s R test and Frees’ Q test are performed. Test results are given
below in Table 10.
Table 10: Results of the Diagnostic Tests
Test
Homoscedasticity
Modified Wald
Hypothesis
Test Statistic
Probability
H 0 : i2 2
312 5.8*105
Baltagi-Wu LBI.
H0 : 0
LBI 0.8299
Modif. Bhargavaet.al. DW
H0 : 0
DW 0.4144
Wooldridge’s Serial
Correlation
H 0 : No first order serial
F1;30 909.67
p F1;30 0.0000
2
465
1838.14
2
p 465
0.0000
p 312 0.0000
Serial Correlation
correlation
Contemporaneous
Correlation
Breusch-Pagan LM
H 0 : No contemporaneous
Pesaran CD
correlation
H 0 : No contemporaneous
CD 22.53
p CD 0.0000
Friedman’s R
correlation
H 0 : No contemporaneous
R 106.31
p R 0.0000
Frees’ Q
correlation
H 0 : No contemporaneous
Qtest 7.89
correlation
Critical Values from Frees’ Q distribution:
0.10
: 0.2333
0.05
: 0.3103
0.01
: 0.4649
Because the Modified Wald test p value is 0.0000, the null hypothesis is rejected and the
model has heteroscedasticity. For serial correlation, Wooldridge’ serial correlation F test
statistic is 909.67 and the p value is 0.0000. Model has serial correlation problem.
Additionally both Baltagi-Wu LBI. and modified Bhargava et. al. DW serial correlation
test statistics which are 0.8299 and 0.4144 respectively indicate that the model has serial
correlation problem. All tests performed for the contemporenaous correlation point that
there is cross sectional correlation in the model.
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
The last three columns of the Table 6 shows the fixed effects model with the Huber-White
standard errors that is robust to heteroscedasticity and serial correlation (FE_RB); the fixed
effects model with panel corrected standard errors that is robust to heteroscedasticity and
the cross sectional (contemporaneous) correlation (FE_PCSE); the fixed effects model with
the Driskoll-Kraay standard errors that is robust to the heteroscedasticity, serial correlation
and to the cross sectional correlation (FE_DK).
FE, FE_RB and the FE_DK models have the same coefficient estimates with the different
standard errors. The FE_PCSE model has different coefficient estimates from the other
three models. Finally, because of the violations of the assumptions and the nature of the
model estimators, the last model can be used to interpret the relationship between the
dependent variable and the regressors (independent variables).
The coefficient of lp (1197.36) indicates that if the population increases 10 million, the
dependent variable gross domestic product (ngdp) increases about 1.2 billion dollars.
Because the coefficient of lur is -1184.44, if the unemployment rate increases 1%, the
gross domestic product decreases about -11.84 billion dollars. The estimated coefficient of
the ggx_gr is -280.14 and it can be interpreted as if the growth rate in general government
total expenditures increases 1%, the gross domestic product decreases about -2.80 billion
dollars.
Conclusion and suggestions
In this paper the authors used panel data approach to analyze the individual effect of some
of the key macroeconomic indicators (current account balance, general government gross
debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national
savings, inflation (average consumer prices), population, total investment, unemployment
rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services) on
economic growth (GDP) of EU, acceding and candidate countries over during the 2002–
2012 period. The main findings of static model indicate that level of population positively
affects economic growth. That is, 10 million increase in population leads to rise in GDP
over 1.2 trillion dollars. Whereas the level of unemployment rate and total expenditure
negatively affect economic growth. One percent increase in the unemployment rate
decreases GDP by 11.8 billion dollars and one percent increase in the total expenditure
decreases GDP by 2.80 billion dollars.
References
Ahn, S. C., Moon, H. R. (2001). Large-N and Large-T Properties of Panel Data Estimators
and the Hausman Test”, USC CLEO Research Paper, No. C01-20.
Baltagi, B. H. (2010). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Fourth Edition, John
Wiley&Sons Ltd, 2010.
Beine, M., Docquier, F., Oden-Defoort, C. (2011). A Panel Data Analysis of the Brain
Gain. World Development (39), 4, 523–532.
12
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Bortolotti, B., Fantini, M., Siniscalco, D. (2003). Privatisation around the world: evidence
from panel data. Journal of Public Economics, 88, 305 – 332.
Frees, E. W. (2004). Longitudinal and Panel Data, Analysis and Applications in the Social
Sciences, New York, Cambridge University Press.
Gujarati, D. N., Porter, D. C., (2009). Basic Econometrics, Fifth Edition, McGraw Hill,
New York.
Haas, R. de, Lelyveld, I. van, (2006). Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and
Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis. Journal of Banking & Finance 30, 1927–
1952.
Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E., Lim, G. C. (2008). Principles of Econometrics, 3rd press, John
Wiley & Sons.
Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data, 2nd press, New York, Cambridge University
Press, 2003.
Maddala, G.S., Lahiri, K. (2009). Introduction to Econometrics, 4th press., West Sussex,
John Wiley & Sons.
Lee, C. C., Chang, C. P., (2007). Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A panel analysis
of developed and developing countries. Energy Economics, 29, 1206 – 1223.
Lee, C. C., Chang, C. P., (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer
look at panels. Tourism Management 29 (2008) 180 – 192.
Pazarlıoğlu, M.V. (2001). 1980-1990 Döneminde Türkiye’de İç Göç Üzerine Ekonometrik
Model Çalışması”, V. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Çukurova
Üniversitesi, Adana (In Turkish).
Sukiassyan, G. (2007). Inequality and growth: What does the transition economy data say?
Journal of Comparative Economics, 35, 35–56.
Tari, R. (2010). Ekonometri, Extended 6th press, Umuttepe Kitabevi, Kocaeli, (In
Turkish).
Tsoukas, S., (2011). Firm survival and financial development: Evidence from a panel of
emerging Asian economies. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35, 1736–1752.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Introductory Econometrics, 4th press, Canada, South Western
13
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Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth Using Panel Data
Author
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TAS, Nihat
HEPSEN, Ali
ONDER, Emrah
Abstract
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During last 10 years some EU countries had economic instability. They have short and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing, globalization etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic indicators of EU countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Static and dynamic panel data models were used for determining the effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross domestic product (GDP) of EU member countries including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom; acceding country: Croatia; and candidate countries: Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. While dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product (volume), the independent variables are current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation, average consumer prices, population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data (cross sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this research involves 33 EU member and EU candidate countries (units). The effects of 12 macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product volume were examined. The paper also empirically analyzes the negative impacts of global financial crisis (the 2007 U.S. Subprime Financial Crisis) into EU member and candidate countries’ economic growth during the 2002–2012 crisis is, the factors that promote a financial crisis, and the dynamics of a financial crisis. Thus, the effects of macroeconomic parameters are analyzed using panel data series. The findings of this research are especially useful for EU candidate countries such as Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey for developing convenient economic strategies. Keywords: European Union and Candidate Countries, Financial Crisis, Macro Economic Parameters, Panel Data Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Economic Growth.
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International Burch University
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2013-05-10
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ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3
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https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f2eb735dcf32078d854345cc07a9a4d1.pdf
f1b7e8c5feec3cb89d6184fb215ca95c
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Text
2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo
Analyzing Prime Time News in The Context Of Uses And Gratifications
Approach
Funda Erzurum
Anadolu University
Turkey
ferzurum@anadolu.edu.tr
Abstract: Television as a product of modern technology is a magic box that deeply affects
societies at all time and space. Television uses images and sounds to communicate at the same
time, live as a witness to events and having advantages and the experience to viewers as
opposed to pre-modern communication means. It has a different position over the other mass
media because of transmitting video and sound simultaneously. In its early broadcasting times
television content was mainly used for transmission of news and educational purposes. In the
course of time, development of technology has paved the way for a change in the use of
existing functions and made the television an important apparatus for entertainment and
leisure time. The study’s main theme is to introduce audience preferences, especially receiving
prime time news in context of uses and gratifications approach. Television is a medium which
can bring up the news and the news events at the same time they occur. The time between the
event and the broadcasting is ‘zero’. It is a medium that has an advantage to transmit and reach
to its audience instantly. It is using this advantage in a wide range of ways. News has been
described as prestigious program for any channel in television broadcasting. According to this
approach television channels attribute extra attention to the news, news programs and
newsrooms. In this study the motivations that derive viewer to watch television to satisfy their
needs and in particular prime time news usage is analyzed through fieldwork conducted in
Eskişehir.
Introduction
The first half of the century was determined by the diversification of the video and audio elements of
the media. As the book and the newspaper did, the fictional movie goes beyond representing the individual and
social relations it also performed the funcition of providing information. After the Second World War, television
has emerged as direct heirs of the previous models ( Barbier & Lavenir, 2001, p.15-16). Between 1950 and 1960
the television has bocome a mass medium. After this period television has settle in the center of human life.
This study is focused on prime time news on national television channels and the changes of the behavior of
monitoring according to the SES ( Socio- economic Status) groups.
The history of television broadcasting in Turkey is not as old as America and Europe. Since the 1970’s,
television has had an important place in Turkey. At the first years only few hours of broadcast could be handled.
People were watching it in their guest rooms with their neighbors and relatives, since then television has been an
integral part of everyday life. Television affected individuals' lives, leisure activities and also the time that they
were spending together. These affects has become even more attractive since the increase of the broadcasting
hours of television.
The Study
Our era is the era of information and technology, as Castells (2005) noted that "networks" are living in a
society. People are more vulnerable to the developments in the mass communication technology every day. As a
result of technological developments life is much more easier. Today, automation has a potential to replace
human and significantly more free time for people may occur. Increase of the leisure time has changed the
social life understanding and the relations. Television surrounds all the parts of human life and space. According
to uses and gratifications approach, people use media to meet their specific needs. As a result of this use
audience have reached a certain satisfaction. Uses and gratifications approach, turn the audience and viewers in
an active position over media, and defends that they are effective on choosing the message and the medium
which meets his/her needs and expectations. While individuals are using the mass media actively they also
constitute their own social reality. In this manner the social world of individuals and life become intertwined,
and new values have been created for establishing social relationships, integration of family and
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community(Lull, 1980, s.197).People use media generally to get information, to get ideas about daily life affairs,
to be esteemed, and to feel that he/she is useful to someone or something. Media uses it’s power and effect on
each other on satisfying those needs (Katz, Blumer ve Gurevitch, 1974, s.20) .
The change of ratings of prime time news which are broadasted on Turkish national Tv channels is
remarkable in recent years. Its obvious that comparing the TRT period and today will not provide meaningful
results. However, to look at least in prime-time which has the most watched programs rates in the last five years
can give an idea in order to reveal the change.
In the context of uses and gratifications approach, the changes of the audience’s prime time news
monitoring behavior / habits, the fundamental dynamics of change, the factors that are affecting the prime time
news monitoring and the relationship between socio-economic status variables and the prime time news
monitoring is the problem of this study. Quite a lot of researches about why people watch television, especially
in western countries have been done. But this kind of researches are extremely limited in the economical and
social developing countries. In Turkey today, as the television audience measurement is discussed more on AGB
Nielsen, commercial organizations are based on these data, however relevant academic data are not sufficiently
taken into consideration. In general, individuals' media use, the preferences about the news getting medium, in
particular the expectations about prime time news and to put the current situation would be useful for the the
program planning and audition phases. Evaluating the study’s results gives an idea about the mass audience
expectations, and a guide to plan programs that fulfills the expectations.
This study’s presumptions are; in the known conditions the selected sample represents the universe, the
sources which are used for the study provides current, accurate and sufficient information, there is at least one
television at home, the news monitoring habits have changed, whereas television is still the most effective and
commonly used medium to get news, and araştırmaya konu olan değişkenler bakımından The variables that
are the subject of research in terms of SES groups are homogeneous in itselves, but
heterogeneous among the other group.
This study’s limitations are; Eskişehir city center, 15+ age group television viewers and the prime time
news on national broadcast television channels.
Methodology
Today the discussion about the research methods is which method provides or helps to achieve more
valid and reliable information: qualitative or quantitative research methods Undoubtedly, both methods have
advantages and weak points over the other. In this reseach a mixed approach was adopted as the research
method.
This universe of research is households residing in the City Center district and the 15 + age group.
Universe of the universe is finite, volume is 724 849 people. This study sampled household and each household
unit for the 15 + age group, each of the individual is the unit of observation.
The "Systematic Sampling Method" is used. City's main street with houses on this street, which is based
on randomly selected streets in the systematic selection of residential apartments with a specified number of
buildings in a single sample, it was intended to. With the sampling of households fall into the 15 + age group
interviews were done, who did not want to participate to the survey of households in the case of persons residing
in a parent households / individuals have been sampled. Implementation of household surveys of participants by
calculating the SES Score AGB Nielsen has a defined sub-sample of six SES groups have been formed.
Survey was conducted on 600 people. When we look at gender of the participants of the 360 male
participants and 240female participants. For this research, it is an acceptable rate (40% to 60%). Although the
ideal is equal distribution of participants, but in this study, the essential criteria in determining the SES group,
because of the relatively higher proportion of the population distribution of a gender difference has emerged.
However, this can be considered as a tolarable difference.
Socio-Demographical Characteristics of the Participants
Research has been done on 15+ age group. Participants are mostly between the ages of 15-45. If we look
at number of participants; 15-30 years in the range of 257 persons (42.8%), 31-45 age range of 215 people (%
35.8) and 46 and above is defined as the age range of 128 persons (21.3%).
62.8% of participants (377 people) were married. 204 people (34%), unmarried and remaining 19 people
were widowed and divorced. More than half of the respondents have children. 242 people has no child. When we
look at the number of children one, two and three children numbers were attracted our attention.Participants
were asked the question; “How many people live at home?”, 45.7% of the responses have been in the direction
that they are three and four people living in the house.
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After evaluating the survey data, one person from each SES group were interviewed in depth Interview
participants had freedom to choose the place and the time of the interview. Also their permission had been taken
for the audio record, it has emphasized that this study is a voluntary and they can end it when ever they want and
leave the research.
SES Group
A Group
B Group
C1 Group
C2 Group
D Group
E Group
Personal Information
22 years old, Female, University degree. Doing MS. There are three televisions in the house.
Watching television more than two hours a day.
51 years old, Male, University degree. Working as a pilot instructor. There are two televisions in the
house. Hours a day monitoring is not certain
69 years old, Male, High School graduate. Retired teacher. There are two televisions in the house.
Watching television 3 hours per day.
53 years old, Male, High School graduate. Officer. There are two televisions in the house. Watching
television more than six hours per day
35 years old, Female, primary school graduate. Mukhtar. Have a television at home. Watching
television one hour a day.
39 years old, Female, Literate. Housewife. There are two televisions in the house. Watching
television 6 hours per day.
Table 1: Personal Information About In-Depth Interview Participants
Validity and Reliability of Research
600 persons were examined in the reliability of survey results to questions about television viewing
motivations Cronbach alpha value of 95%, Cronbach's alpha value of the main news related questions were
found to be 90%. Alpha values, prepared according to classical test theory with multiple data structures and the
scale is suitable for testing. Therefore, this study has been done with this method of reliability analysis.
In-Depth interviewsas a qualitative research tool, to ensure the reliability of the study, one expert from
the area has choosen. Texts groups according to the questions have given, and to be asked for reading the texts
and list the themes. Moreover, researcher’s act in diligence in this process and cooperation with an expert in both
areas are a step on behalf of the reliability and validity.
Evaluation of the Data About Prime time News Monitoring and Motivations
To see came before to speak. We replace ourselvelves in the world around us by seeing. We explain this world
by words, but this does not change us to be framed with our world. What we think or what we believe affects our
view objects (Berger, 1993, s.8). After entering the television to human life, to have fun, to relax and wonder at
the purpose of the activity has undergone changes.Private television channels has changed the program formats
to meet the audiences’s entertainment needs and they began to replace the need for going outside for
entertainment. As with any tool, television should not be examined regardless of background. There is increase
of the time spent in front of the television. Television becomes one of the most effective mass culture producer.
The aim of the study ( in this context) is to expose the television watching habits, news viewing and the
satisfaction gained from television.
Survey participants asked to list the first three activities they are doing their free times. Total 1383
responses were received, 402 (29.1%) watch television,135 (9.8%), read books, 155 (11.2%) listen to music, 130
(9.4%), do housework, 179 (12% , 9) I'll be with my family, 52 (3.8%) to shop, 198 (14.3%) visit my friends, 55
(4%) sports, 7% (5) do additional business, 16 (1% , 2) spend the time on the Internet, 54 (3.9%) the other. For
the sample group “ watch television” comes first in the leisure activities. This shows us how television become
an important social phenomenon. 333 of 600 people surveyed (55.5%) have a television at home. In the
remaining 267 households have more than one television. The highest number of television in the households is
5. Television is mostly located in the living room and in the guest room. These roomsare the common areas of
the family.
Average of three hours watching TV for an indefinite period. Weekday and weekend television viewing
time has changed. Television viewing hours increases on weekends. Television viewing is an evening activity on
weekdays for working classes and for students, while on weekends during the day the time of television viewing
increases. When we look at the watching hours of television on weekdays and weekends, the great majority
(over 50%), also known as prime time evening hours was observed. When we look at qualitative data about
television viewing time to establish a significant association between SES group is not possible.
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Television Watching Motivations
Entertainment, Relaxation, Habit
Of survey participants 66% (396 persons) stated that they are watching television habittually, 8.7% (52
people) stated that they can not say television watching as a habit or not and that the 25.3% (152 people)
expressed watching TV is not a habit for them. Assuming that the SES group members who have limited
cognitive activities prefer to watch television over the others will not be wrong. The channel and the content of
the program is not important for the viewer once it has turned on. At this point viewer’s communication is with
the television as a tool. Rubin’s 1981 and 1984 studies puts the argument that there are two important kinds of
television watching as a habit.First one is television watching motivation to spend time, and the second one is
television watching motivation to get rid of loneliness and the motivation for the escape to socialize.
In this context when we look the survey findings in a general manner it becomes clear the usage of
television connected to the individual’s education and profession. University graduates who are workins do not
see television as a leisure time activity. But people with lower levels of education spend their leisure time mostly
by watching television. They see the luxury, new patterns of relationships, brands, entertainment and many
things on television texts. Rules and structures of society is changing. By controlling the leisure time of people
the consumption is encouraged, the new habits, life styles and behaviors are adopted. Sometimes unacceptable
events becomes normal and legal when people watch it from television. This kind of television effect mostly
seen on lower educated and uneducated viewers who are spending much more time by watching television (
Television Watching Tendency Research, http://www.rtuk.gov.tr/sayfalar/DosyaIndir.aspx?icerik_id=0ff756b8292d-4269-9dbc-2bbfe6782cf0, 21.04.2009).
After the television comes to houses, into people's lives; to spend their leisure time, have fun, to relax
and wonder at the purpose of the events has changed. Start of private television broadcasting, commercial weight
increases, the entire program in order to attract more viewers to their format has started to organize such a fun
program. Entertainment based programs so intense format has become to get to the audience meets the needs of
the entertainment. According Postman entartinment is the top ideology of every discourse in television. To
entertain and delight everyone on TV is not on any kind of discourse (Postman, 1994, s. 99). In this context, the
sample group A, B and C1 groups generally did not participate the statement "Meets my need to go to fun place"
other groups have indicated that their needs were met by television. Television texts are prepared and presented
for the viewers the pleasure, enjoy and excitement. Television programs are organized according to the average
viewer. A and B groups do not think of television is exciting, C1 group participants are the ones that they are
undecided on this issue, and C2, D and E groups find television exciting.
The television motivations that are gathered under the entertainment, relaxation and habit motivation
head draws a general picture that, housewifes, retired, and unemployed workers often spend nearly all of their
leisure time with their television will not be wrong to say. Entertainment, relaxation and leisure needs covered by
watching television. The officers, professional and other occupational groups responses are also similar. They
watch telelvision on a propose, and spend a little free time to relax and watch television with the stated
motivation.
Television, Family and Support
Television is domestic and essentially it is watched at home with the family. Television, family and home is a
part of our culture. Usage of television, watchin television and interpreting the televisual world gets it’s meaning
by the family (Mutlu, 1991, s. 11). With the start of private television broadcasting,television broadcasting has
experienced significant changes and impacts. Private televisions became legal in 1994, with increasing channel
number and program number, technology rapid changes in parallel with the media in the field of developments
in Turkey, it influenced the relation between the audience and the television text closely. At first glance, these
rapid changes experienced in the field of media-television, the most important factors affecting family
relationships, we think that the fact is the really important changes in family structure in Turkey. In short, TV
changed the family institution in Turkey, while the technology and media that are serving as agents of change. In
this context, to sample a series of questions about television viewing habits were asked. The purpose of this
series of questions of family television viewing habits, what kind of socialization, morale and satisfaction is
providing entertainment on the sample is measured.
Obtained from data it will not be wrong that, with higher income and education level people do
different activities that watching television. It can either be occupation-related activities or the other activities
as the unifying element. So they do not use television to satisfy their being together need. C1, C2, D and E
groups, are watching television to satisfy their being together, sharing the same experience and communicate
over it needs.
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The act of watching television in the same physical environment keeps family together, but it also causes
dissolution of the family. As a interest collector, television always talking about the outside world. There are no
topics on television screens from inside the house, away from the interest of individuals and events covered in
the cases when the facts and events near, people are away from individuals. While the close one becomes far, far
bomes close. Dream becomes real and reality becomes dream (Türkoğlu, 2004, s.154).
Assessment of News Monitoring Habits
Today's busy world, a world of information,a different world from forty, fifty years ago; knowledge
production and dissemination of information to the public is important for human welfare (Castells & Ince, 2006,
s. 159- 162). The story about life of each incident, is largely taken from the mass media . Modern man, world,
life, is interpreted through the media content. To find or learn anything pressing on the remote control is enough.
Technologies integrate with each other and become more effective and are fast tools. Television gives non-stop
information to it’s viewers. community learn the local, national and internatonlar events, political, geographic
and social events through the television.
In the multi-media environment,the borders between serious programs such as the information,
entertainment, news and documentary has almost disappeared. Today information become a commodity that can
be bought and sold. Information society, is a product of technological developments. Media with these
developments, the individual's mental link with society has begun to play a determining role in shaping. This
news and information of all kinds of popular culture industry has been prepared according to the format, found
by individuals has led to important and valuable. Entertainment mixed with modern individuals tirelessly so that
the information is accepted without realizing his own passiveness ( Güneş, 2001, s.15).
Nowadays Television features have been increasing in a way of being the most effective, fast and
widespread mass communication medium. Millions of people across the world who have lived in their
immediate environment receive the information and news through television. The majority of survey participants
(71%) stated that they receive the news from television. Another interesting point is the choice of the internet has
been followed by television. 14% of the participants stated that they receive daily news from the internet, 11%
from newspapers, 2% from radio and 2% said they also receive from other media. As a result of the survey,
Television news that presents visual and audio stands out more.
Some of the interviewed participant’s preference related to the medium that how they receive the news
is as follows;
A: “I most often receive the news from television. Because they can immediately deliver the news, you can
instantly see if there is flash news. Or in the same day an hour before you can watch more recent updates
visually. However, newspaper is not like this, you should wait till next day to read the news, as some news you
can access the details of the news two days later. In fact internet is also very fast but I think the internet is still
not practically used. Television is more practical; you can just switch on and watch it. "
B: "we don’t have opportunities at work so generally we get the news from the internet. When I came home in
evening, I glance over the newspaper. Then I get the evening news from television. I'm watching the evening
news to see what happened up to that time to discover if something different. If possible I prefer to watch TRT
evening news till ends. "
Almost all of the participants watch news at least once a day. When we look at the television news
monitoring prevalence ratios during the day, the table clarifies more clearly; % 64 prime time news, 18% Night
News, 8% Afternoon, 7% morning, 3% Hourly monitors the news. Traditionally, watching the prime time news
habit continues. At this point if the research is made in a city like Istanbul which has a heavy traffic, it is possible
to get different results.
85% of the participants stated that they are monitoring the prime time news and 15% of them don’t.
Television; not only meets viewers feelings of loneliness with its “so-called intimate relationships” but also
offers more opportunities to resolve their loneliness. Audience members think and know that a large number of
people watching the same program. Because the people who actually watch the same program, even they are in a
different location they constitute a community that shares the same time. Even the audiences indirectly
experience this feeling, knows that they are belonging to this community and this feeling eliminates the sense of
loneliness. (Mutlu, 1999, s.82). So the main cause behind the frequent monitoring of Television prime time
news can be considered the sense of belonging.
When the question is turned to participants that doesn’t watch news; 41% of it said that it doest capture
my interest, 24% of those hours they are not at their home, 11% do not trust news, 10% not satisfied, 5% don’t
have time to watch, 5% other, 4% watching other news in different time. For the participants who do not watch
the prime time news on TV, the survey has been terminated with the question.
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67% of participants, who receives news from Television, follow the National Broadcast, 32% follows
the news channel and 1% said that they follow news from the local channels. So National broadcasting channels
news still the most tracked one. Thematic channels news format which are not appropriate exactly with the prime
time news bulletin is the main factor of this result. Besides this, audience that watch the thematic channels might
be different should be kept in mind is an important point. It is obvious that audience who follows the news
channels all day will not be loyal as to the audience that follows only the prime time news.In order to extend the
duration of Prime-time, TV channels aligns and pull in the news time. The audience still thinks that the best time
for the prime time news hour is 8.00 PM. In accordance with this general trend, this has been followed by the
midnight news. The daily routine of life changes is a result of the time that individuals spend it at home and
outside the home. As a result of increase in working hours, increasing the time spent on the road, work that needs
to be completed, additional overtime hours change individuals experience back home. In modern society, life
hours have also been changed as a result of lifestyles and life habits changes. Therefore, the midnight news is
becoming more important.
The first five channels among the National Broadcast are ChannelD, Channel 7, Show TV, Star and
Samanyolu. Thematic news channels have a different view; the preferred rate is 11,6 % for NTV, and 4.5%
remained for CNNTurk. So NTV found more convincing by the audience.
When the question asked to the participants in the way of why they like the channel that they regularly track the
prime time news; 43.6% of it said that the prime time news of the channels that they watch regularly delivers
accurate, reliable and real information. Following this, 24.3% of it said that the content is the full, 8.4% of it
watches because of Speaker, 6.7% is because of the magazine news are not given, 4.7% of it said that it is just a
habit, 4.7% due to the broadcast flow, 2.5% for political reasons, 1.7 % is because the magazine good news are
good, 1.2% due to sports news are better, 1.2% of it said I like other news and 1% said I mostly like economy
news.
It was asked to participants that why they need to change the channel while they are watching a news on
the TV if they are doing so. Nearly half of the participant expressed that they are receiving different perspective
and opinions and becoming more satisfied when they watch the news from different channels. The second reason
that forces the audience to change the channel seems to be the advertisements that take place in the News.
Audience stated that they either change the channel or give up watching the Television, the time advertisements
are started. Long duration and uninteresting news are also listed among the reason for change. Television is a
dynamic instrument of mass communication. Consequently, the audience also has variable structure. To lose
interest of the audience means lost of that audience. Therefore, employees who deal with program planning
calculates even seconds to reach more audience.
Motivations for Primetime News Monitoring
Life is a constant stream and relationships are changing and developing among people and society in
every each minute. People would like to be aware of the news and today media has undertaken the function
delivering the news. Journalism, with regard to each incident, requires quick information from various sources.
Today, information in other words is awareness has become a basic requirement that needs to be met.
Communication technology has created an invisible network; everyone receives the information and influences
each other immediately. Any political, economic or a social event occurring in any country, can affect a
geographically distant country. Therefore responsibility of the messenger is considered as a public task. (Tokgöz,
2000, s.176).
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46,6%
Agree
Katılıyorum
Unstable
Kararsızım
25,9%
27,6%
Katılmıyorum
Disagree
Agenda
Gündem
43,7%
Objective
Tarafsız
Eğlenceli
Satisfactory Entertaining High Quality
28,8%
27,6%
65,4%
Kaliteli 13,4% 21,2%
53,9%
21,7%
24,1%
58,5%
20,0% 21,5%
67,8%
Educational
Doyurucu
Reliable
Eğitici 15,1%16,8%
68,3%
75,4%
Serious
Güvenilir 12,2%19,5%
Informative
Ciddi 9,5%15,1%
4,6%
Bilgilendirici 6,3%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
89,0%
News Monitoring Assesments
Figure 1. Primetime News Monitoring Assesments
Television is similar to human eyes and ears and calls them in this sense. It is also the human’s
eyewitness that mediates them to see with their eyes and to hear with their ears even for the events that is
occurring far away. Some questions were asked to the participants related to the characteristic of Prime time
news and responses to these questions in the survey were assessed as follows:
No significant differences were found related to the "Informative" expression via one-way of variance
analysis with the stated evaluation criteria. All of the participants regardless to their SES groups, professions,
ages, frequency of monitoring and education, they think that television news are informative.
Statistically significant differences were found related to the "Serious" expression via one-way of
variance analysis with the age group differences. While 46 and over age group’s answer to this question was “I
agree”, 15-30 age group expressed that “I am undecided” and 31-45 age group responded as “I disagree”.
Participants in 31-45 age groups that might be considered as relatively younger age group believe that television
news which is not the only news source is not serious. This group differs from 15-30 age groups in terms of life
experience and the well established world view. In the age groups that track internet, wap, etc.. apart from
television news sources have the right to think more negatively about it. In way television programs in all genres
care rating, prime time news have the same expectation as well. Therefore, the presentation of the news content
is adjusted across the television viewers per the lowest level.
Statistically significant differences were found in "It is reliable" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to professional groups. Workers, housewives, unemployed and retired professional groups were
"agree" to this statement, while civil servants, self-employed professional groups were “disagree”, craftsmen and
other professional groups were “unstable”. Variety of mass media and the time spent in front of the television are
the factor that the television prime time news text found reliable. While groups that spend more time at home
agrees to this statement, participation rate has fallen gradually for professional groups that have longer and
tighter working conditions.
Statistically significant differences were found in "It is reliable" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to age groups. 46 and over age group were “agree” to this statement, while 15-30 and 31-45 age
groups have responded that they were disagree. It is understandable that the news text published in the television
found unreliable for the age group that the television is not the only news source for them. Television is not
indispensable for this group hence they monitor the news instantaneously. They receive the news from various
sources and this gives them the opportunity to make comparison.
Statistically significant differences were found in "It is reliable" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to the news monitoring frequency. While the group that monitors news 3 days a week disagrees,
group that monitors 1 to 2 days a weeks agrees the statement.
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No significant differences were found related to the "Educational, informative" expression via one-way
of variance analysis with any evaluation criteria. All of the participants regardless of their education level
including SES groups, professions, ages, frequency of monitoring, think that television news is a tool that trained
them and they learn something through it.
Statistically significant differences were found in "It is Satisfactory" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to the occupational group. Workers, housewives, unemployed and retired professional groups
were "agree" to this statement, while civil servants, self-employed professional groups, craftsmen and other
professional groups were “disagree”. It is obvious that the fact behind this, is the time spend at home and the
heavily usage of television.
Statistically significant differences were found in "It is satisfactory" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to age groups. 46 and over age group were “agree” to this statement, while 15-30 and 31-45 age
groups have responded that they were disagree. For the age group that the television is not the only news source,
get news from multiple sources and able to make comparison. Therefore television news text which calls each
segment of the society does not satisfies the group who monitors other sources that requires more specific usage
of technology.
Statistically significant differences were found in "Entertaining" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to the occupational group. Workers, housewives, unemployed and retired professional groups
were "agree" to this statement, while self-employed and other professional groups were “disagree” and craftsmen
and civil servants groups were “unstable”. At this point it is crucial to understand the main purpose of
monitoring the prime time news and which needs are being met. If the case is to get pure news, it is not possible
to think that television prime time news is providing this, hence the assessment result according to occupational
groups support this argument clearly.
Statistically significant differences were found in "High Quality" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to the occupational group. Workers, housewives, unemployed and retired professional,
craftsmen and other professional groups were "agree" to this statement, while self-employed groups were
“disagree” and civil servants groups were “unstable”.
Statistically significant differences were found in "High Quality" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to age groups. 46 and over age group were “agree” to this statement, while 15-30 and 31-45 age
groups have responded that they were disagree.
Statistically significant differences were found in "Objective" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to the occupational group. Workers, housewives, unemployed and retired professional,
craftsmen and other professional groups were "unstable" to this statement, while civil servants and selfemployed groups were “disagree”.
Statistically significant differences were found in "Objective" statement via one-way of variance
analysis respect to age groups. While 46 and over age group’s answer to this question was “I agree”, 31-45 age
group expressed that “I am undecided” and 15-30 age group responded as “I disagree”. In no way information
can be objective.
nformation is a power and the objectivity of power is indefensible. Each word, each concept, each
sentence, each image of the news text has a meaning. While messenger is trying to be objective, he thinks that
the objectivity problem is solved by introducing some mechanical rules. What the messenger does with this
mechanical solution is to fill the gap in specific format with certain specific rules following with the practical
application. The point that should be kept in mind is that objectivity can not be reached with this application but
can be legitimate (Erdogan & Alemdar, 1990, s.58). Regardless of how it is done, objectivity can not be achieved
hundred percent.
Statistically significant differences were found in "Reflects the real agenda of the country" statement via
one-way of variance analysis respect to the occupational group. Housewives were "agree" to this statement,
while craftsmen, workers, unemployed, retired professional, and other professional groups were “unstable” and
civil servants and self-employed groups were “disagree”.
Conclusions
This study analyzes Turkish audience prime time news monitoring motivations and the factors affecting
to monitor prime time news in the framework of uses and gratifications approach
Various data analysis method was used for two types of data that were collected as an outcome of the
research findings. Quantitative data collected through surveys, were evaluated with SPSS 13.0 software
package. As a method of data analysis, frequency analysis, cross tables, ANOVA and T-test were implemented.
Significant relationships have contributed to obtain versatility data.
Semi-structured interviews are deciphered and all speech and spelling mistakes were transcribed
without any correction. Most of the significant part of the data obtained from in-depth discussions was used in
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research where relevant. Data that were collected as an outcome of the research findings were analyzed in the
framework of uses and gratifications approach. Thesis of cultivationtheory has also been used when necessary.
This research shows that television audience in Turkey track similar motivations as carried out in other
countries in the frame of uses and gratifications approach. Television audience watches TV mostly for
entertainment, relaxation and information functions. Accordingly, it is possible to say television monitoring
motivations are universal.
News has a function as being informative, enlightening and effecting political developments via
delivering world events and comments in a short time. Nowadays people are monitoring radio or television to get
news, and in order to see the real one where event takes in its original place, audience watches television.
According to the results of this research, three quarters of Turkish people are getting the news from television.
Although this study shows that the prime time news is the most tracked one, when compared with the past years,
it has been observed that evening news rate is also remarkably increased and the prime time news section of the
audience is shifted.
Participants who expressed that they don’t not watch news, that is because the news are not take their
attention. At this point, the changing structure of television news has an impact. While the journalism concept is
changing, it loses some of the audience and at the same time, some audience adapts to this new structure and
continues to follow up heavily. It is right time to remember the education role of television. Television texts
create audience that requires them and keep more audience in front of the television.
Determination that was reached in the study related to the best time for the broadcast of prime time
news is also interesting. The most appropriate time for the prime time news determined as 20:00 and 24:00
hours. Life boundaries and routines have been changed for modern individuals who adapted the changing life
conditions of modern world. Thus individuals can not be at home straight after work. Therefore relatively it is
not possible for those people to monitor prime time news broadcasted in early hours.
As a result of this study, it is found out that Turkish audience found television news generally
informative, serious, reliable and quality. The audience trusts the news on the screen. The important thing at a
point is the audience don’t find others televisions news credible accept the one he monitors. While audiences
express that news are informative, serious, reliable and quality, only half of the participants think that real
agenda of the country is displayed.
According to the uses and gratifications approach, hegemony of source has ended. According to this
model, strong side is the recipient, in other words the audience. According to the results of study, audience
actively selects the program. To receive the news, they consciously make their own choise and select mass
communication tool and also the bottom unit (the television channel, the internet website, etc..) of the mass
communication.The data of this study overlaps with the data conducted in the previous uses and gratifications
researches. The results of the study support the thesis of the uses and gratifications approach.
The vast majority of participants stated that they receive the news from television. And more than half
of it stated that they watch prime time news every day. When we look at the AGB data, we found it interesting.
We see drop in monitoring prime time news between years 2000 - 2007. When we look at the types of the
program that mostly watched, only in the first half of 2000 and 2004 years carries prime time news in the first
three programs. Discrepancies are worthy in this regard.
An other interesting point related to prime time monitoring is the time that audience prefers to monitor;
the number of participants who prefers to watch the prime time news at 24.00 is close to the ones who prefers to
watch it in normal hours which is 8.00 PM . The increase of hard living conditions, sharing of household
responsibility as a result of contribution of women in working life, allocation of time to children, shift the
preferable news at a later time
Data obtained from questions which based on Cultivation Theory, the audience watches television an
average of three hours per day. When we look at the audience in Turkey, it can not be considered as heavy
audience, but also this time can not be considered short. Television has a significant impact on thoughts and
consciousness for many television audiences. In this respect this idea is also supported by the participant’s
responses attended to this research.
Socio-Economic Status group that this research was constructed on, as a basic indicator that shows the
differences between monitoring level of prime time new came across the researcher. Television just after
penetration to human life, it began to change and influence their culture, their lifestyle, beliefs and values. The
integration of television with daily life within the family, it is meant to integrate with your spare time. The most
important factor that television is step a head from other media is that it doesn’t require any education and breaks
the limitation of time and place. Television monitoring behavior has becoming one of the most important among
daily practices.
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413
Title
A name given to the resource
Analyzing Prime Time News in The Context Of Uses And Gratifications Approach
Author
Author
Erzurum, Funda
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Television as a product of modern technology is a magic box that deeply affects societies at all time and space. Television uses images and sounds to communicate at the same time, live as a witness to events and having advantages and the experience to viewers as opposed to pre-modern communication means. It has a different position over the other mass media because of transmitting video and sound simultaneously. In its early broadcasting times television content was mainly used for transmission of news and educational purposes. In the course of time, development of technology has paved the way for a change in the use of existing functions and made the television an important apparatus for entertainment and leisure time. The study’s main theme is to introduce audience preferences, especially receiving prime time news in context of uses and gratifications approach. Television is a medium which can bring up the news and the news events at the same time they occur. The time between the event and the broadcasting is ‘zero’. It is a medium that has an advantage to transmit and reach to its audience instantly. It is using this advantage in a wide range of ways. News has been described as prestigious program for any channel in television broadcasting. According to this approach television channels attribute extra attention to the news, news programs and newsrooms. In this study the motivations that derive viewer to watch television to satisfy their needs and in particular prime time news usage is analyzed through fieldwork conducted in Eskisehir.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2010-06
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
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959
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Analyzing the Educational Objectives in Primary School English Curriculum as to Affective Domain Taxonomy
Author
Author
Can Cap , Rabia
Arı, Asım
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
One of the various purposes of the educational activities in schools is to develop and provide affective features of students. However, it is observed that affective domain is often neglected in the educational system practices (Reece and Walker, 1997) and weight is given on cognitive domain behaviors and sometimes on pyschomotor domain behaviors. Affective domain involves the dimensions such as “interests, attitudes, appreciations, values and emotional sets or biases” (Krathwohl, 1964). These dimensions are product of the experiences the individual realizes whole of his/her life. Therefore, affective domain behaviors may not be developed only within the school system. School must undertake to function effectively in respect of providing the affective domain behaviors. Reflecting affective features to class environment will also positively change and develop the learning climate in the class (Gömleksiz, 2003). Situations like student interaction, individual behaviors, cultural structure and social climate of the class are related with affective domain rather than the cognitive. All these enable students to work cooperatively with the teacher and other students and to participate efficiently to the learning process (Cooper ve McIntyre, 1998). Values in the cultural environment where individual takes place can also determine the success in the learning environment. So educational objectives from affective domain are a vital component in the development of English curriculum for primary students. Our purpose here is to relate research on affective dimensions to foreign language instruction. We will discuss Krathwohl’s Taxonomy of Educational Objectives on the Affective Domain and try to detemine to what extent English Curriculum for Primary Schools in Turkey involve these. We will also state the importance and benefits of affective domain in teaching English. Research data will be collected and analyzed by using document analysis method.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
P Philology. Linguistics
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/83faa887a1fcd44782a8b27c76ce1878.pdf
8f10ea6a216a75bbedf16b577303b0e8
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Text
International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Analyzing the Relationship between the Competencies
and Wage Level: A Case Study in a Telecom Company
Halil Zaim
Fatih University, İstanbul, Turkey
halilzaim@fatih.edu.tr
Competency can be defined as the observable behavior including
knowledge, talent and attitudes critical to reach the desired performance.
Hence, competencies are behaviors the employees must meet and present
in order to make a business enterprise successful. The main objective of
this study is to analyze the relationship between competencies and wage
level. We hypothesized that there is a positive, linear correlation between
the competencies and wage level. In order to test this hypothesis we have
collected data from one a Telecom Company. The research findings
revealed that competencies significantly and positively affect level of
wages.
Keywords: Competency, Wage, Human Resource Management.
143
�
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9d7e26a1ca8b2e86282d82131816b21d
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/87f7c5f5df40181da22628e7c5164075.pdf
04f7d8f016171d4a2692d577098e5aae
PDF Text
Text
International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Analyzing the Relationship between the Competencies and Wage Level: A
Case Study in a Telecom Company
Halil Zaim
Fatih University, İstanbul, Turkey
halilzaim@fatih.edu.tr
Derya Mercan
Fatih University, İstanbul, Turkey
dmercan@fatih.edu.tr
Abstract
Competency can be defined as the observable behavior including knowledge, talent
and attitudes critical to reach the desired performance. Hence, competencies are
behaviors the employees must meet and present in order to make a business
enterprise successful.
The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between
competencies and wage level. We hypothesized that there is a positive, linear
correlation between the competencies and wage level.
In order to test this hypothesis we have collected data from a Telecom Company.
The research findings revealed that competencies significantly and positively affect
level of wages.
Key words: Competencies, Wage Level,Telecom Company
Introduction
The rise of knowledge economy and socio-economic transformation of the societies have
led knowledge to be the fundamental means of wealth and prosperity. From the business
perspective, knowledge seems to be a key factor for organizations’ success in the long run.
Due to that, leveraging the knowledge resources effectively and efficiently appears to be a
vital issue in order to gain the competitive advantage and to ensure the sustainable
development for the societies, as well as for the organizations (Drucker, 1993; Davenport
and Prusak, 1998; Bozbura, 2007).
In the knowledge economies there is a shift from task-based approaches to competencybased approaches. Therefore there the popularity of competency management systems has
gained a special concern both from practitioners and academicians (Clardy, 2008).
Competency management can contribute to organizations knowledge base and increase the
knowledge utilization capability of an organization. Hence, it became an important
research object in the more general area of knowledge management and is often integrated
with learning management systems (Gold, 2001). Recent studies in this field, clarified that
individual competency management is an area of research attracting efforts to leverage
personal development, knowledge generation (Abou-Zeid, 2002), development (Bhatt,
2000), sharing (Sveiby, 2001), and utilization (Bender and Fish, 2000), organizational
learning, innovation and effectiveness (Malhotra, 2000). In addition to being regarded as a
focal point for planning, organizing, integrating and improving all aspects of knowledge
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
management and human resource development systems, competency management
modeling is also regarded as an approach focused on improving organizational
performance (Qiao and Wang, 2009).
The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between wages and
competencies. Our hypothesis was that, there is a positive, linear relationship between the
individual competencies and wages. Data collected from an International Telecom
company in Turkey. The company has defined seven individual competencies. The results
indicated that five of these competencies have directly influence wage levels.
Skill and Competency
The concept of “competency” is a confusing term and is particularly mixed up with “skill”.
However, competency does not merely refer to having certain skills. It also refers to how
those skills are applied and how the use of such skills affects performance. Although there
are a number of definitions of competency, in one definition it has been described as “a
way of looking at jobs and job holder’s performance that relates specifically to the quality
and quantity of the action undertaken in the job” (www.csp.org.uk, 2001). In another
definition, it has been stated as "demonstrable characteristics of the person, including
knowledge, skills, and behaviors, that enable performance”. In other words, it is the set of
abilities, behaviors, and attitude needed by an employee to achieve effective job
performance. Hence, the competency framework enables employees to be clear about what
is expected of them in terms of their behavior and specific job roles Dessler, 2003).
In most of the other definitions, the term competency is linked by efficient work and
performance (of individuals) as carrying out work to a given standard. However, the details
and comparison of different definitions are out of the scope of this study. The most
important core of understanding is that competency points out at how skills and knowledge
are applied (www.csp.org.uk, 2001).
In the literature, a distinction is generally made between skills and competencies. There is
no consensus among the scholars on how these concepts should be exactly defined.
However, it is agreed upon that both concepts focus on the individual rather than the job
itself and both of them have to be demonstrable and measurable. Moreover, the discussions
between skill and competency usually center around two different types of skills. These
are:
the technical or “domain” skills : those skills and knowledge required to
succeed in a particular job
the enabling or “personal” skills : those behaviors and skills that people use
to accomplish their work.
Skill refers to the technical skills and competency refers to enabling skills. (www.opm.gov,
2004). In this study, the concept of competency or competency based pay systems
comprised of both kinds of skills.
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Competency and Wage Relationship
It has been argued that while deciding the wage levels of the employees’ competencies
should be taken into consideration. Hence, one of the most rapidly growing pay
innovations in the last two decades is competency -or skill- based pay (Lee, et.al, 1999).
The increasing popularity of CBP in the recent years is due to the strong emphasis on
streamlining and reengineering business processes and on strategically aligning business
with human resource management systems (Burke and NG, 2006). That is why companies
are seeking compensation policies that reinforce the organizational change necessary for
survival in the rapidly changing and turbulent market conditions.
Today, certainly a large number of organizations are using or moving towards CBP
systems including governments and other public and private organizations
(www.uottawa.ca, 2004). It is also stated that there is convincing evidence of CBP to
become a vital component of many companies’ pay systems. The field studies demonstrate
that it provides positive benefits to the organizations in most cases. Nevertheless, research
describing how it works and under what conditions it is effective is limited (Murray and
Gerhart, 2000).
The main objective of CBP is to develop an employee with diverse skills in a given
operational area. For that reason, CBP system is based on relevant competencies possessed
and needed by employees on the job and seeks to provide more flexibility to management
with an efficient, knowledgeable and multi-skilled work force. It is assumed that CBP
system can positively influence and enhance the human capital which leads to improve the
performance and contribution of employees and the value that they provide to the
organization (www.doh.dot.state.nc.us, 2004).
Case Study
The case study is conducted in an international tele-communication company. The
company is one of the leading communication and convergence technology group in
Turkey, provides integrated telecommunication services. Group companies have a modern
network infrastructure covering the whole country and offer a wide variety of services to
residential and commercial customers all over Turkey.
Competency Model
The core competencies are described transferred to the employees as following. The
company has defined seven competencies for all employees. Competencies that all
personnel are expected to exhibit and that are critical in establishing and supporting the
targeted company culture are:
1. Building Trust
2. Team Work
3. Customer Focus (Internal / External)
4. Adaptability
5. Continual Learning and Development
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
6. Decision Making
7. Initiating Action
Statistical Analysis of the Relation between Wage and Competencies
In order to find a correlation between compensation and competencies we have to find a
firm that relates these two items in an integrated human resource system.
So the selected company must have;
- A grade system depending on job sizes
- A compensation system
- A competency model
When we analyzed the company, we saw that the company has a pay structure based on
grade system depending on the job evaluation. However, the company has a competency
model that is linked to the grade system. This structure leads us to analyze if there is a
relationship between the pay and the competencies of the company.
A sample of 205 data is taken for the regression analysis. The data has the information of
net wages and the scores of core competencies of employers who have grades above 6.
We assume that there is a positive linear relationship between competencies and wages. In
order to test these hypotheses a linear model is constituted and a regression analysis is
performed using “Ordinary Least Squares Estimates” technique. In the model written
below, dependent variable (Y) is wage, independent variables are determined as in orderly
trust (X1), teamwork (X2), customer focus (X3), adaptability (X4), continual learning and
development (X5), decision making (X6), and initiating action (X7). In addition before
performing multiple regression analysis all the assumption of linear regression was tested
and no problem occurred.
Y = 0+1X1+2X2+3X3+4X4+5X5+6X6+7X7
The next step is assessing the significance of the model using ANOVA (F) Test that shows
the combined effects of all the independent variables in the regression model. In order to
consider the model to be significant, the general acceptance is that the significance level
should be equal or less than %5 ( 0.05).
Table 1 ANOVA Test
Model
1
Sum of
Squares
Regression 52646409
Residual
1,52E+08
Total
2,05E+08
df
8
196
204
Mean
F
Sig.
Square
6580801 8,464213 0,00
777485,3
Finally, using “t-test”, partial regression coefficients that explains the effects of
independent variables on the dependent variable separately, have to be analyzed. The
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
standardized regression weights some of the variables are significant. Accordingly these
results indicate that there is a positive linear relationship between trust (X1), teamwork
(X2), customer focus (X3), adaptability (X4), and wages. Nonetheless, the analysis show
that there is no meaningful relationship between continual learning and development (X5),
decision making (X6), initiating action (X7), and wages at 0,05 levels.
The regression analysis results indicated that there is a positive linear correlation between
trust, teamwork, customer focus, adaptability and decision making with wage levels.
However, we could not able to figure out a meaningful relationship between learning and
development, initiating action and wages (table 2).
Among these competencies, trust was found to be the most important criterion with the
value of its scandalized regression weight being 0,363 (p<0.01) followed by adaptability
(0,233), and customer focus (0,229). In contrast teamwork and decision making have
comparatively less impact on wages with regression weight 0,185.
Table 2 Coefficients
Model
1
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
t
Sig.
B
0,363
4,552
Std.
Error
0
trust
486,947
Std.
Error
106,985
teamwork
269,705
117,792
0,185
2,29
0,023
Customer
focus
adaptability
321,788
102,556
0,229
3,138
0,002
337,468
108,598
0,233
3,108
0,002
Learning
and
development
Decision
making
initiative
170,484
111,089
0,116
1,535
0,12
224,206
126,558
0,148
1,772
0,04
-14,968
117,674
-0,01
-0,127
0,899
Dependent variable: Wage levels
Conclusion
The telecom company uses competencies in recruitment, training and development, career
planning and performance management processes. However, a job based payment system
is used within compensation management. But we can say competencies have an indirect
effect on compensations of white collars through performance premiums reflected on
wages depending on grade and performance criteria. The regression analysis results also
show that there is a positive correlation between compensation and competencies.
Particularly trust, adaptability, customer focus, teamwork and decision making have
positive impacts on wage levels. Nonetheless, we could not find any meaningful
relationship between learning abilities, initiative taking and wages.
Among the competencies “trust” has the most significant impact on wage levels. It is
mainly because trust is one of the most important and comprehensive competencies and
considered to be the base for effective communication. Adaptability has also significant
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
effects on wage levels. This finding can be explained by the fact that company has been
restructuring in the last few years and the organizational culture and structure have
changing dramatically. Hence adaptability became a critical competency in this process.
Similarly, customer focus is emphasized as a core value in the new organizational culture
after this restructuring process.
The most important limitation of this study is that the data was collected from one
company. Hence, the findings cannot be generalized. Moreover, similar studies should be
conducted in different companies to compare the results and findings of this research. For
further studies the effects of competencies on individual and organizational performance
should also be analyzed.
References
Abou-Zeid, E.S., (2002). “A knowledge management reference model”, Journal of
Knowledge Management, Vol. 6, No. 5, pp. 486-499
Bender S. and Fish A., (2000). “The transfer of knowledge and the retention of expertise :
the continuing need for global assignments”, Journal of Knowledge Management,
Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 125-135
Bhatt, G., (2000). “Organizing knowledge in the knowledge development cycle”, Journal
of Knowledge Management, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 15-26
Bozbura, T., (2007). “Knowledge Management Practices in Turkish SME’s”, Journal of
Enterprise Information Management, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 209-221
Burke, R., and Ng, E., (2006). “The Changing Nature of work and Organization :
Implications for Human Resource Management”, Human Resource Management
Review, vol. 16, pp. 86-94
Clardy, A. (2008). “Human Resource Development and the Resource-Based Model of
Core Competencies: Methods for Diagnosis and Assessment”, Human Resource
Development Review Vol. 7, No. 4, 387-407
Davenport, T. and Prusak L., (1998). Working Knowledge, Harvard Business School,
Boston.
Dessler, G., (2003).Human Resource Management, New Jersey : Prentice Hall, Pearson
Education Inc.
Drucker P., (1993). Post-Capitalist Society, Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford
Gold A., (2001). “Knowledge management : An organizational capabilities perspective”,
Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 185-214
Malhotra Y., (2000). “Knowledge Management for E-Business Performance : Advancing
Information Strategy to Internet Time”, Information Strategy : The Executive’s
Journal, pp.5-16
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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Lee, c., Law, K., and Pobko, P., (1999). “The Importance of Justice Perceptions on Pay
Effectiveness: A Two-Year Study of a Skill-Based Pay Plan”, Journal of
Management, vol. 25, No. 6, 851-873
Murray, B., and Gerhart, B. (2000). “Skill Based Pay and Skill Seeking”, Human Resource
Management Review, 3, pp. 271-287
Qiao, J. X., Wang,W., (2009). “Managerial competencies for middle managers: some
empirical findings from China”, Journal of European Industrial Training Vol. 33
No. 1, pp. 69-80
Sveiby K. E., (2001). A knowledge based theory of the firm to guide in strategy
formulation. Journal of Intellectual Capital, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 344-350
www.csp.org.uk, (2001). “Employement relations & Union Services : Competency-based
Pay – An Overview”,
http://www.opm.gov/demos/skill.pdf, (2004). “Skill-Based & Variable Pay Demonstration
Project Development : Reference Guide”.
www.uottawa.ca, (2004).
Answers”,
“Competency-Based Performance Appraisal Questions and
www.doh.dot.state.nc.us, (2004). “Overview of the Skill Based Pay Program”,
7
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Analyzing the Relationship between the Competencies and Wage Level: A Case Study in a Telecom Company
Author
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ZAIM, Halil
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Competency can be defined as the observable behavior including knowledge, talent and attitudes critical to reach the desired performance. Hence, competencies are behaviors the employees must meet and present in order to make a business enterprise successful. The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between competencies and wage level. We hypothesized that there is a positive, linear correlation between the competencies and wage level. In order to test this hypothesis we have collected data from one a Telecom Company. The research findings revealed that competencies significantly and positively affect level of wages. Keywords: Competency, Wage, Human Resource Management.
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International Burch University
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2013-05-10
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ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3
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https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/648193b6539277a06ff045e02c37e034.pdf
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PDF Text
Text
2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
Analyzing the Sustainability of Current Account in ASEAN Countries: Test
of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraints
Hüseyin KALYONCU
Department of International Trade and Business
Meliksah University
Turkey
hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr
Muhittin KAPLAN
Department of Economics
Meliksah University
Turkey
mkaplan@meliksah.edu.tr
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to investigate the sustainability of current account
imbalances by using the data of five ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand over the 1981-2008 periods. Sustainability of current account for ASEAN
countries is analyzed under intertemporal borrowing constraint (IBC) approach by performing an
empirical analysis of Pedroni (1999) panel cointegration between exports and imports plus net
transfer payments plus net interest payments. The empirical results of panel cointegration test
show that these variables are cointegrated for whole period and two sub-periods. To find
regression coefficient we use panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators. It is found that the coefficient
is not significantly equal to one but very close to one. The overall results provide evidence in
favour of the sustainability of the current account for five ASEAN countries as a group.
Keywords: panel data unit-root test, current account, solvency
Introduction
The sustainability of current account has been receiving increasing attention from economist. Since current
account represents an indicator of a country‘s economic performance, it is an important barometer to both
policymakers and investors. As Fountas and Wu (1999) stated that short-run current account deficits may not be
considered bad, as they may reflect reallocation of capital to the country where capital is more productive. However
persistent payment imbalances can have serious effect. One of them is that they might increase interest rates to attract
foreign capital to sustain an increasing current account deficit. Other effect is that these measures impose an
excessive burden on future generations as the accumulation of larger debt will imply increasing interest payments
and thus lower future standards of living.
The importance of the current account is witnessed by its widespread use in early warning indicators of currency
crises (Aziz et al., 2000 and Edwards, 2001)). Large and persistent external imbalances are often assumed to lead to
financial /currency crises. For example, the currency crises in Chile and Mexico (early 1980s), the UK and Nordic
countries (late 1980s), Mexico and Argentina (mid 1990s), East Asian countries (late 1990s) and more recently in
Turkey (2001) are often associated with large and persistent current account deficits.
In the empirical literature on current account sustainability there have been basically two main approaches. Both
approaches suggest possible techniques to test the sustainability of a current account under intertemporal borrowing
constraint (IBC) approach. The first approach is based on the univariate time series properties of the current account;
the second approach is based on the long-run relationship between exports and imports (bivariate approach). In this
paper we followed second approach.
The question of sustainability of current account has been studied in recent years by a large literature. Unit root
and cointegration tests have provided useful tools in gaining insight into the long-run implications of current account.
Husted (1992), Wickens and Uctum (1993), Ahmed and Rogers (1995), Milesi-Ferretti and Razin (1996), Wu et al.
(1996), Cashin and McDermott (1998), Fountas and Wu (1999), Ho-Don Yan (1999), Apergis et al. (2000), Wu
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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
(2000), Wu et al. (2001), Baharumshah et al. (2003), Onel and Utkulu (2006), Kalyoncu (2005,2006) are examples
of these large literature.
In this study we investigate sustainability of current account imbalances by using the data of five ASEAN
countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The remainder of the paper is
organized as follows. Section 2 defines the analytical framework. Section 3 explains econometric methodology.
Section 4 describes data and presents empirical results. Section 5 concludes.
Analytical Framework for Testing
Husted (1992) present a theoretical framework to test for sustainability based on Hakkio and Rush‘s (1991)
procedure. Husted‘s approach began by noting that an open economy faces the following budget constraint for each
period t:
(1)
C Y B f I (1 r ) B f
t
t
t
t
t
t
where Ct is current consumption (public and private) in period t, Yt is the output in period t, It is investment in
f
period t , rt is the one period world interest rate, Bt is the size of international borrowing which could be positive or
negative.
Since this budget constraint must hold for every time period, the period by period budget constraint can be added
up to form the intertemporal budget constraint is given by
(2)
Bt f i Yt i Ct i I t i lim i Bt f
i
i 1
where
TBt X t M t Yt Ct I t . Here TB denotes trade balance.
Therefore the economy‘s budget constraint can be expressed as
(3)
Bt f i TBt i lim i Bi f
t
i 1
Equation (3) says that when the last term (limit term) equals zero, the amount that a country borrows (lends) in
international market equals the present value of the future trade surpluses (deficits). If, for example, the current stock
of foreign debt is bigger than the present value of future trade balances, then the country‘s debt is in a ―bubble‖ and
thus the current account is not sustainable.
In order to derive a testable model, Husted (1992) makes several assumptions following Hakkio and Rush (1991).
Assuming that the world interest rate is stationary with unconditional mean r and making further manipulation
equation (3) may be expressed as
X t i Z t i
Bt fi
Xt
lim
i (1 r ) i 1
(1 r ) i 1
i 0
M t rB
f
t 1
(4)
where Zt M t (rt r ) Bt 1 . Now, subtracting Xt and then multiplying both sides of the later equation by minus
f
1, we get
CAt X t M t rBt f1
i 0
Z t i X t i
Bt fi
lim
i (1 r ) i 1
(1 r ) i 1
(5)
Assumed that X and Z are both I(1) processes, equation (5) becomes
B f t i
t
i (1 r )i 1
X t MM t lim
where MM t M t rt Bt 1 .
f
Assuming that the second term in (6) equals zero, then (6) can be written as a simple regression equation
(7)
X bMM
t
t
t
136
(6)
�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
Under the null hypothesis that the economy is satisfying its intertemporal budget constraint, b should be equal to 1
(b=1) and t sould be stationary. In other words, as shown by Hakkio and Rush, if X and MM are I(1), then under the
null, they are cointegrated.
In this study we follow Husted (1992) model. In the empirical analysis we estimated
X t bMM t t co-integration regression. In this equation, X is exports of goods and services and MM is
imports of goods and services plus net transfer payments and net interest payments.
The empirical results may allow establishing several conclusions related to the sustainability of the current
account:
- if there is no co-integration the current account is not sustainable;
- if there is co-integration with b = 1, the current account is sustainable,
- if there is co-integration, with b < 1, economies exports growing lower than economy‘s imports, and the current
account may not be sustainable.
As Hakkio and Rush (1991) demonstrate in the context of government finance also if MM and X are non
stationary variables in level, the condition 0 < b < 1 is a sufficient condition for the budget constraint to be obeyed.
However, when X and MM are expressed as a percentage of GDP or in per capita terms, it is necessary to have b = 1.
Methodology
Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration
In this paper, current account sustainability in the five countries is studied by testing the existence of cointegration between exports and imports plus net transfer payments and net interest payments. Co-integration
analysis developed in the mid-80s introduced the idea that even if underlying time series are non-stationary, linear
combinations of these series might be stationary. Therefore, before employing panel co-integration techniques, it is
essential to verify that all variables are integrated of order one in levels. In recent years some tests for unit root
within panels are developed in the literature. Levin and Lin (1992, 1993), Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997), Maddala and
Wu (1999), Kao (1999) and Quah (1994) have developed panel unit root tests. In this study Im, Pesaran and Shin
(hereafter IPS) tests are used. The IPS test is more important because it is appropriate for a heterogeneous regressive
root under an alternative hypothesis. We briefly describe the IPS model:
Suppose that there is a group of N series, Xit, which have the following time-series representation:
wij
X it i i X it 1 ij X it j it , i 1,...., N and t 1,....., T .
(8)
j 1
The IPS test examines the null hypothesis:
H 0 : 1 2 ...... N 0, against
H a : i 0, for some i.
The IPS statistic is defined as:
z N t E (t )/ Var (t ) ,
(9)
N
where
t (1 / N ) t i . ti is the t statistics of ˆi 0 , E( t ) and Var( t ) are the mean and variance of t ,
i 1
respectively.
In recent years some tests for unit root within panels are developed in the literature. Pedroni (1995, 1999, 2000),
Phillips and Moon (1999), Kao (1999) and Kao and Chiang (2000) have developed panel cointegration test. This
paper uses the panel cointegration test of Pedroni (1999) to research the relationship between X and MM. The
equation for the panel cointegration tests for Pedroni (1999) is as follows:
(10)
X MM , i 1,...., N and t 1,....., T .
it
i
t
i
it
it
This formulation allows the investigation of heterogeneous panels, in which heterogeneous slope coefficients ( i ),
fixed effects ( i ) and individual specific deterministic trends ( i ) are permitted. This framework provides
cointegration tests for both heterogeneous and homogenous panels with seven regressors based on seven residual-
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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
based statistics. Pedroni proposes these residual based tests for the null of no cointegration. Rejection of the null
hypothesis means that the variables under consideration are cointegrated.
The between-group panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators
To estimate the cointegration vector we will examine two panel cointegration estimators: the between group
fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and dynamic OLS (DOLS). Pedroni (2000, 2001) suggested two methods to apply
fully modified method to panel cointegration for FMOLS. One of them is the within-group (or pooled) panel
FMOLS estimator and the between-group (group mean) FMOLS estimator. In this study between-group FMOLS
estimator will be used.
Between group FMOLS estimators for equation (10) can be written as:
1
T
T
*
2
N
(
MM
MM
)
(11)
i
1
GMF
it
( MM it MM i ) X it Tˆi
t 1
t 1
ˆ
ˆ
*
21i
ˆ 0 21i (ˆ
ˆ 0 ) . Between dimension
MM it and ˆi ˆ 21i
where X it ( X it X i )
21i
22i
22i
ˆ
ˆ
ˆ *
1
N
22i
*
1
estimator is ˆGMF N
22i
N
i 1
*
CFM ,i
where
*
CFM
,i
is conventional FMOLS estimator applied to ith country of the
N
panel.
t-statistics
are
calculated
as
tˆ * N 0.5 t *
GMF
i 1
where
CFM ,i
0.5
t ˆ *
CFM , i
(
*
CFM ,i
1 T
2
o ) 11
.
i ( MM it MM it )
t 1
Next, we construct the group mean panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator as:
N
1
t 1
1
T
T
~~
*
̂ DOLS
N 1 Z it Z it' Z it X it
where
Z it is a
t 1
(12)
2( K 1)1 vector of regressors
Z it MM it MM it , MM it K ,.., MM it K
and
~~
N
*
*
X it X it X it . Between dimension DOLS estimator can be constructed as: ˆ DOLS
N 1 CD
,i where
i 1
*
CD,i
is conventional DOLS estimator applied to i
th
country of the panel. The associated t-statistics can be
T
o ) ˆ i2 ( MM it MM it ) 2
constructed as: t ˆ *
N t * where t ˆ * (
CD , i
DOLS
CD , i
t 1
i 1
T
1
2
2
long-run variance of the residuals from the DOLS regression i lim T E T (it ) .
t 1
Data and Empirical Results
0.5
N
*
CD,i
0.5
and the
Data
We use annual time series data, and the sample period is begin in 1981 and ends in 2008. The sample consists of
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. All data are taken from the IMF‘s International Financial
Statistics. Exports (X) include exports of goods and services, while our measure of imports (MM) includes imports
of goods and services plus net transfer payments and net interest payments (see Husted, 1992). The consumer price
index (CPI) is used as a proxy for the national price level.
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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
Empirical Results
In the first step, IPS panel unit root tests are applied. The results of panel unit root tests are presented in Table 1
and reported intercept and intercept with a trend both in levels and in first differences. It can be inferred from the
Table 1 that the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected when the variables are taken in levels. However, when the
first differences are used, the hypothesis of unit root non-stationary is rejected. These results enable to test the
cointegration among variables in I(1) level.
Level
Variables
X
MM
*
z INT
Individual intercept
Individual trend and
intercept
Individual intercept
Individual trend and
intercept
First Difference
P**
*
z INT *
P**
z INT
2.30413
0.33663
0.9894
0.6318
-6.82184
0.0000
2.68661
-0.41857
0.9964
0.3378
-7.25144
0.0000
is the test statistic of Im et al. (1997)
** Probabilities are computed assuming asymptotic normality
Table 1. Panel unit root test for X and MM, 1981-2008.
Having established that all variables are integrated of the same order, we proceed with the panel cointegration
tests, which allow us to test for long-run relationship. Of the seven tests, the panel v-statistic is a one-sided test where
large positive values reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration whereas large negative values for the remaining
test statistics reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration. Table 2 shows both the within and between dimension
panel cointegration test statistics. With the exception of the group p-statistics, the other six test statistics reject the
null hypothesis of no cointegration. Null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected at the 10% significance level for
panel v-statistics, 5% significance level for panel p-statistics, panel PP-statistics, panel ADF-statistics, group PPstatistics and 1% significance level for group ADF statistics. Therefore X and MM series appear to be cointegrated at
a reasonable significance level.
Within dimension Test statistics
Panel v-statistic
2.0133 ( 0.0526)
Panel p-statistic
-2.6650 (0.0114)
Panel PP-statistic
-2.6266 (0.0127)
Panel ADF statistic
-2.5619 (0.0150)
Between dimension Test statistics
Group p-statistic
-1.5757 (0.1153)
Group PP-statistic
-2.5097 (0.0171)
Group ADF statistic
-2.8055 (0.0078)
Note: the value in parentheses indicates probability values.
Table 2: Panel cointegration tests, 1981-2008
Finally, we estimate the cointegrating vector using two methods: the group-mean FMOLS and DOLS estimators.
We consider two cases: with and without common time dummies. Also respective t-statistics for Ho: βi=1 are
provided. Table 3 shows the estimate of cointegrating vector by period, using the between-group panel cointegration
technique. First, we look at the case of a without time dummy for each period. The group-mean FMOLS estimate of
regression coefficient is 1.11 and the DOLS estimate is 1.08 for the whole period. The coefficient is not significantly
equal to one for either method. When we consider two sub-periods (1981-1998 and 1999-2008), Table 3 also shows
that the coefficient is not significantly equal to one. The group-mean FMOLS estimate of regression coefficient is
1.07 and the DOLS estimate is 1.02 for 1981-1998 and FMOLS estimate of regression coefficient is 0.97 and the
DOLS estimate is 1.06 for 1999-2008.
Period
1981-2008
1981-1998
1999-2008
FMOLS
1.11 (8.12)*
1.07 (6.47)*
0.97 (2.20)*
Without Time
Dummies Between DOLS
1.08 (23.10)*
1.02 (6.72)*
1.06 (58.18)*
FMOLS
0.93 (-1.83)*
0.87 (-3.45)*
0.93 (-3.54)*
With Time
Dummies Between DOLS
0.74 (-2.41)*
0.83 (-4.20)*
0.91 (-8.37)*
Note: the value in parentheses indicates t-statistics for Ho:βi=1. * indicate rejection of null hypothesis. Between reports Pedroni
(1996) group-mean panel FMOLS and the group-mean panel DOLS introduced in this paper.
Table 3: Panel FMOLS and DOLS test results
139
�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
We also look at the case of a time dummy for each period. The group-mean FMOLS estimate of regression
coefficient is 0.93 and the DOLS estimate is 0.74 for the whole period. When we consider two sub-periods we can
see that the coefficient using FMOLS is 0.87 for the period 1981-1998, whereas it is 0.93 for 1999-2008. The DOLS
estimate is 0.83 in the first sub-period and 1.06 in the second sub-period. The coefficient is not significantly equal to
one for all period and either method.
The presence of cointegration means that there are long run relationship between exports of goods and services
and imports of goods and services plus net transfer payments plus net interest payments. The coefficient is not
significantly equal to one but very close to one. These results show that the current account of these countries as a
panel is sustainable in the long run.
Conclusion
There is a growing literature that examines the sustainability of current account. Unit root and cointegration tests
have provided useful tools for the sustainability of current account. In the literature various type of unit root and
cointegration test are used for individual country or panel country group.
In this study, we use the panel data of export and import for five ASEAN countries using annual data from 1981
to 2008 and also two sub-groups (1981-1998 and 1998-2008). A relationship between export and import is
investigated by employing Pedroni (1999) panel cointegration method.
The empirical results of panel cointegration test show that export and import are co-integrated for whole period
and two sub-periods. In addition we apply panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators. Panel FMOLS and DOLS test
results show that the estimated cointegration factor, , is close to 1 but not significantly equal to 1. As a general
conclusion the finding show that ASEAN countries are likely to be sustainable countries in terms of current account.
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Title
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Analyzing the Sustainability of Current Account in ASEAN Countries: Test of Intertemporal Borrowing Constraints
Author
Author
KALYONCU, Hüseyin
KAPLAN, Muhittin
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the sustainability of current account imbalances by using the data of five ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand over the 1981-2008 periods. Sustainability of current account for ASEAN countries is analyzed under intertemporal borrowing constraint (IBC) approach by performing an empirical analysis of Pedroni (1999) panel cointegration between exports and imports plus net transfer payments plus net interest payments. The empirical results of panel cointegration test show that these variables are cointegrated for whole period and two sub-periods. To find regression coefficient we use panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators. It is found that the coefficient is not significantly equal to one but very close to one. The overall results provide evidence in favour of the sustainability of the current account for five ASEAN countries as a group.
Date
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2010-06
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
HB Economic Theory
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Ancient Greek in the Contemporary Higher Education Curriculum
Author
Author
Jovanovic, Milena
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
The paper explores the basic principles of the Ancient Greek curriculum as a theoretical-methodological seminar of the Language, Literature, and Culture program at University of Belgrade (Faculty of Philology). At the Department for Modern Greek studies, Ancient Greek is taught as a mandatory theoretical-methodological course in the context of learning Modern Greek. It is also offered to all the students of the Faculty of Philology as an optional course, but in the context of the theory of language. The course itself consists of lectures (with integrated practical work), utilizing the grammar-translation method (as the subject is literary language) with elements of the communicative method, in accordance with what students need to learn the modern (Greek) language. Various texts are used as examples of grammatical rules. Rules are formulated on the basis of prescriptive grammar, through a two-way translation process.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
P Philology. Linguistics
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/bc2a3e05ef2a8f4068d26f59f70303da.docx
cd45132b3c9a71fbd996320c6326debd
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c3d94b4e9e41b654287f933771ee8c35.pdf
7ee9a812daa789370984ccb243f4934d
PDF Text
Text
Assist. Prof. Dr. Adem Sahin
Fatih University - Faculty of Law, Department of Commercial Law
ÄNDERUNGEN UND NEUERUNGEN IM BEREICH DES
TÜRKISCHEN AKTIENGESELLSCHAFTSRECHTS
EINFÜHRUNG
Der Abschnitt des THGB über die Aktiengesellschaft wurde unter
Berücksichtigung der EU-Richtlinien über die Gesellschaften neu
geschrieben.1 Die Neuerungen kann man in zwei Kategorien unterteilen: Zum
einen handelt es sich um Änderungen grundsätzlicher Prinzipien des
Aktienrechts, zum anderen betrifft es nur einzelne Vorschriften. Im
Folgenden werden nur die Neuerungen die Prinzipien des Aktienrechts
behandelt. Die Neuerungen hinsichtlich einzelner Vorschriften werden in den
entsprechenden Abschnitten berücksichtigt.
1. Überblick über das neue türkische Handelsgesetzbuch
Im Laufe der Zeit entsprach das türkische Handelsgesetz vom 1957
ebenfalls nicht mehr den Bedürfnissen der Zeit. Aus diesem Grund begannen
neuerliche Reformarbeiten hinsichtlich des türkischen Handelsgesetzbuch
(THGB). Die Vorbereitung der Gesetzesänderung dauerte mehr als zehn
Jahre. Zunächst wurde im Jahr 1999 vom Bundesministerium für Justiz eine
Expertenkommission zur Vorbereitung eines Entwurfs des THGB gebildet.
Diese Kommission bestand aus Akademikern der Universität, Vertretern der
obersten Gerichte, der Berufsverbände sowie juristischer Personen des
öffentlichen Rechts und wurde von Prof. Ünal Tekinalp geleitet. Als
Ergebnis der fast fünfjährigen Studie wurde einen THGB-Entwurf2 am
17.10.2005 verabschiedet und dem türkischen Parlament vorgelegt. Am
11.1.2008 leitete der Justizausschuss des türkischen Parlaments diesen
Entwurf in der am 26.12.2007 (THGB-E) angenommenen Fassung an die
1
Memiş, T., Bozbel, S., Yeni 6102 Sayılı Türk Ticaret Kanunu, s.41; Allgemeine Begründung des
Regierungsentwurfs des THGB, Anm.117.
2
Der Regierungsentwurf mit Begründung ist auf der Webseite des türkischen Parlaments
(http://www2.tbmm.gov.tr/d22/1/1-1138.pdf) abrufbar.
329
�Adem Sahin: ÄNDERUNGEN UND NEUERUNGEN IM BEREICH DES TÜRKISCHEN
AKTIENGESELLSCHAFTSRECHTS
Hauptversammlung weiter. Dieser Entwurf wurde am 13.1.2011 im
Parlament schließlich verabschiedet. Das neue THGB tritt mit 1.7.2012 in
Kraft (im Folgenden „neues THGB“ genannt).
Das THGB besteht aus sechs Hauptbüchern mit 1.535 Artikeln. Das
neue THGB beinhaltet
1. Einführungsbestimmungen (§§ 1 bis 10 neue THGB);
2. im ersten Buch (§§ 11 bis 123 neue THGB): allgemeine Vorschriften
(z.B Kaufmänner, Handelsregister, Firmenrecht, unlauterer
Wettbewerb, kaufmännische Buchführungspflicht, Kontokorrent und
Handelsvertretung);
3. im zweiten Buch (§§ 124 bis 644 neue THGB): allgemeine
Vorschriften für die Gesellschaften, spezielle Vorschriften für
einzelne Gesellschaften, z.B Aktiengesellschaft, GesmbH;
4. im dritten Buch (§§ 645 bis 849 neue THGB): Vorschriften über
Wertpapiere;
5. im vierten Buch (§§ 850 bis 930 neue THGB): Vorschriften über das
Beförderungsrecht;
6. im fünften Buch (§§ 931 bis 1378 neue THGB): Vorschriften über
das Seehandelsrecht;
7. im sechsten Buch (§§ 1379 bis 1498 neue THGB): Vorschriften über
das Versicherungsrecht;
8. Abschlussbestimmungen (§§ 1499 bis 1535 neue THGB).
2. Änderungen und Neuerungen im türkischen AktG
2.1. Abschaffung des Ultra-Vires-Prinizips
Das Ultra-Vires-Prinzip wird mit dem neuen THGB unter
Berücksichtigung der 1. Gesellschaftsrechtsangleichungs-EU-Richtlinie von
1968 abgeschafft, da diese Beschränkung mit dem modernen nationalen und
internationalen Handel unvereinbar ist3. Nunmehr wird die Grenze der
Rechtsfähigkeit der Gesellschaften durch den Gegenstand der Gesellschaften
nicht beschränkt(TGHB § 125).4 Sie dürfen unbeschränkt alle Rechte
erwerben und Verbindlichkeiten eingehen. Mit dieser Bestimmung wird
3
4
Tekinalp, Ünal, Kompatibilität des türkischen und europäischen Wirtschaftsrechts, 27.
TEKIN--
330
�ZBORNIK RADOVA - Međunarodna naučna konferencija „Javni i privatni aspekti nužnih pravnih
reformi u BiH: Koliko daleko možemo ići?“
bezweckt, dritte Personen zu schützen.5
2.2. Verschmelzung, Spaltung und Umwandlung
Die Verschmelzung, Spaltung und Umwandlung von Gesellschaften
wurden ausführlich und in Einklang mit der EU-Richtlinie geregelt. Mit den
Neuerungen werden nicht nur sichere, transparente und einfache
Strukturänderungen geschaffen, sondern auch Schutzbestimmungen für Dritte
und Gläubiger normiert(THGB 134 usw). Außerdem wird die Übernahme der
Arbeitnehmer ausführlich geregelt.6
2.3. Konzern (Unternehmensgruppen)
Im türkischen Handelsrecht wird zum ersten Mal der Betriff des
Konzerns geregelt, und zwar unter dem Titel der „Gesellschaftsgruppe“
(Sirketler Toplulugu) (§§ 195 und 209 neues THGB). Demnach sind die
Verhältnisse zwischen der Muttergesellschaft und den Tochtergesellschaften
auf der Grundlage von Transparenz und Rechenschaftspflicht verbunden. Das
deutsche Konzernrecht und die Meinungen des Forum Europa waren hierbei
die Vorbilder.7
2.4. Einmann-AG und Einmann-Verwaltung
Das bislang geltende THGB kennt keine Einmann-AG und keinen
Einmann-Verwaltungsrat. Nach geltendem THGB sind mindestens fünf
Gründer, die Aktionäre der Gesellschaft werden wollen, zur Gründung einer
AG erforderlich. Unter Berücksichtigung der 12. EU-Richtlinie (89/667)
ermöglicht es das neue THGB nun in § 338, eine Einmann-AG zu gründen.
Nach dem geltenden THGB besteht der Verwaltungsrat aus
mindestens drei Mitgliedern. Der Gesetzgeber verzichtet nun auf diese
5
Allgemeine Begründung des Regierungsentwurfs des THGB, Anm.112; Poroy/Tekinalp/Camoglu,
Ortakliklar ve Kooperatif Hukuku (Kapitalgesellschaft- und
Genossenschaftsrecht)
(2005)
Anm. 121;
Ceker, Mustafa, Ticaret Hukuku, 5.Baski, 2013, s. 250; Bilgili Fatih, Sirketler Hukuku, Mart 2012, s.
43; Pulasli, Hasan, Yeni Sirketler Hukuku Genel Esaslar, Ankara 2012, s. 64.
6
Pulasli, Hasan, Yeni Sirketler Hukuku Genel Esaslar, Ankara 2012, s. 83
7
Giray, Rabia E., Şirketler Hukuku, (Ed. Karahan, Sami), Konya 2012, s.123 ff.
331
�Adem Sahin: ÄNDERUNGEN UND NEUERUNGEN IM BEREICH DES TÜRKISCHEN
AKTIENGESELLSCHAFTSRECHTS
Bestimmung und ermöglicht es der AG gemäß § 359 neue THGB, einen
Verwaltungsrat zu gründen, der aus nur einem Mitglied besteht.
2.5. Die Neurungen hinsichtlich des Verwaltungsrat als Organe der AG
Hinsichtlich der Organe der AG wurden erhebliche Neuerungen
vorgenommen.8 Besonders für den Verwaltungsrat der AG wurden zahlreiche
strukturelle und funktionelle Änderungen unter Berücksichtigung der
Grundsätze der Corporate Governance und der Professionalisierung
geschaffen. Das neue THGB sieht eine dispositive Organisationsordnung der
aktienrechtlichen Exekutive vor.9 Nach dem neuen THGB kann der
Verwaltungsrat durch die Ermächtigung der Satzung die Geschäftsführung
ganz oder zum Teil an seine Mitglieder oder Dritte delegieren. Außerdem
werden die unübertragbaren und unentziehbaren Aufgaben des
Verwaltungsrats festgelegt. Diesbezüglich finden sich viele Änderungen im
neuen THGB.
Die Kontrollestelle ist nach geltendem THGB das dritte obligatorische
Organ der AG. Jedoch wird die Organeigenschaft der Kontrollestelle durch
das neue THGB abgeschafft. Die Aufgaben der Kontrollstelle (die
Überprüfung der Finanzen der AG und des Konzerns) müssen nunmehr von
unabhängigen Absschlussprüfern durchgeführt werden (§ 397 ff neue
THGB).10
8
Pulasli, Hasan, Yeni Sirketler Hukuku Genel Esaslar, Ankara 2012, s. 447 ff.
Kervankiran, Haftungsbeschränkungen im türkischen Gesellschaftsrecht, s.324.
10
Köksal, Aytac, TTK Tasarisinin 397 ile 406 Maddeleri Arasinda Düzenlenen Denetcinin Anonim
Ortakligin Bir Organi Olup Olmadigi Sorunu, Prof. Dr. Fırat Öztan’a Armağan, Cilt 1. ( 2010), s.1387–
1409.
9
332
�ZBORNIK RADOVA - Međunarodna naučna konferencija „Javni i privatni aspekti nužnih pravnih
reformi u BiH: Koliko daleko možemo ići?“
ABKÜRZUNGSVERZEICHNIS
Abs
AG
AktG
Anm
AR
Art
bzw
EU
f, ff
gem
GmbH
HGB
s
THGB
THGB-E
Absatz
Aktiengesellschaft
Aktiengesetz
Anmerkung
Aufsichtsrat
Artikel
beziehungsweise
Europäische Union
und der/die folgende(n)
gemäß
Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung
Handelsgesetzbuch
Seite
Türkisches Handelsgesetzbuch
Türkisches Handelsgesetzbuch – Entwurf
usw
zB
und so weiter
zum Beispiel
LITERATURVERZEICHNIS
Bilgili, Fatih
Ceker, Mustafa
Hirsch, Ernst E
(1993)
: Sirketler Hukuku, Mart 2012
:Ticaret Hukuku, 5.Baski, 2013
:Das türkische Aktien- und GmbH-Recht
Giray, Rabia Eda
Kervankiran, Emrah
:Şirketler Hukuku (Ed. Karahan, Sami) 2012.
:Haftungsbeschränkung
im
türkischen
Gesellschaftsrecht – Ein Rechtsvergleich
(2007) (Diss)
Köksal, Aytac
:TTK Tasarisinin 397 ile 406 Maddeleri
Arasinda Düzenlenen Denetcinin Anonim
Ortakligin Bir Organi Olup Olmadigi Sorunu
(Das Problem, ist der Abschlußprüfer ein
Organ der AG oder nicht nach neue THGB-E
333
�Adem Sahin: ÄNDERUNGEN UND NEUERUNGEN IM BEREICH DES TÜRKISCHEN
AKTIENGESELLSCHAFTSRECHTS
(§§ 397–406 THGB). Prof. Dr. Fırat Öztan’a
Armağan, Cilt 1. ( 2010), 1387–1409
Memiş, T., Bozbel, S.
I.,2013.
:Yeni 6102 Sayılı Türk Ticaret Kanunu, Cilt
Poroy/Tekinalp/Camoglu
:Ortakliklar
ve
Kooperatif
Hukuku
(Kapitalgesellschaftund
Genossenschaftsrecht) (2005)
:Yeni Sirketler Hukuku Genel Esaslar, Ankara
Pulasli, Hasan
2012.
Tekinalp, Ünal
: Kompalität des türkischen und europäschen
Wirtschaftsrechts (2009).
Webseiten
Allgemeine Begründung des Regierungsentwurfs des THGB
(http://www2.tbmm.gov.tr/d22/1/1-1138.pdf)
334
�
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3068
Title
A name given to the resource
ÄNDERUNGEN UND NEUERUNGEN IM BEREICH DES TÜRKISCHEN AKTIENGESELLSCHAFTSRECHTS
Author
Author
SAHIN, Adem
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Der Abschnitt des THGB über die Aktiengesellschaft wurde unter Berücksichtigung der EU-Richtlinien über die Gesellschaften neu geschrieben.1 Die Neuerungen kann man in zwei Kategorien unterteilen: Zum einen handelt es sich um Änderungen grundsätzlicher Prinzipien des Aktienrechts, zum anderen betrifft es nur einzelne Vorschriften. Im Folgenden werden nur die Neuerungen die Prinzipien des Aktienrechts behandelt. Die Neuerungen hinsichtlich einzelner Vorschriften werden in den entsprechenden Abschnitten berücksichtigt.
Publisher
An entity responsible for making the resource available
Pravni fakultet Univerziteta u Tuzli i Centar za društvena istraživanja Internacionalnog Burč univerziteta
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2014
Keywords
Keywords.
Article
PeerReviewed
K Law (General)
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1019
Title
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Animal Images as Metaphors in Ted Hughes’ Poetry
Author
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Gonel , Tuba
Dayton, John
Abstract
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Ted Hughes in his essay “Poetry in the Making” states that poems are a “mysterious they” which present the reader with a special knowledge that “we are very curious to learn”. Poetry, in this respect, should continue its existence whether or not it is read or properly appreciated. For Hughes, who regarded himself as a protector of the secret world presented by this mystical existence, poetry was more than a mere collection of literature; it was the very source of life. That is why his poems deal with particular fields of study such as psychology, anthropology, mythology, and biology in their terminology. Hughes’ commitment to poetry can be better appreciated in light of his description of poetry and its connection to the universe. In his commitment to poetry, Hughes goes further and considers it separately from other institutions in life, and the identity of a poet separately from other roles or identities of a person. This paper aims to analyze some of Hughes` poetry in which he employs animal figures to represent his association of human beings with nature to convey the message that human beings, despite our civilized appearance, are as primitive and violent as other creatures in nature
Date
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2012-05
Keywords
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Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
P Philology. Linguistics
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https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/4e020ee3e6cfe53db12ea2af8d7ec995.pdf
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Text
Journal of Economic and Social Studies
Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in
International Financial Markets between
2002 and 2011
Abderrazak DHAOUI
University of Sousse – Tunisia,
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management
Department of Econometrics and Management
abderrazak.dhaoui@fsegs.rnu.tn
ABSTRACT
The change in trading volume and returns and the dysfunction
of the economy and more specifically of financial markets has been
increasingly attracting attention of researchers, analysts, practitioners,
institutions as well as government organizations. This paper investigates
the factors that are able to explain how financial markets work. Testing
the rational expectation hypothesis and different components of animal
spirits including investors’ beliefs and their behavioral biases, results
show that economy is driven by animal spirits and not by rational
behavior. Considering the classification of the sample by periods of
stability and periods of excessive volatility, results incite to think that
financial markets work in terms of economic cycles.
JEL Codes: G02, G11, G12, G14, G17.
Volume 3
Number 1
Spring 2013
KEYWORDS
Investors’ Beliefs, Animal Spirits,
Economy Dysfunction, Volatility,
Rational Expectation.
ARTICLE HISTORY
Submitted:10 March 2012
Resubmitted:19 Jully 2012
Resubmitted: 5 August 2012
Accepted:6 September 2012
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Introduction
Financial markets have witnessed an excessive change in trading volume and returns
which causes abnormal losses and tremendous financial recessions and scandals affecting the financial and economic world during about the last thirty years (July
1990 to March 1991, March to November 2001 and the recession that began in
December 2007 in the case of the U.S., the recession of the 1990s for the Japan, Indonesia after 1998, Argentina after 2001, European Union during 2000 and 2001,
East Asia during 1997,…). In the real economic world, these recessions and scandals
have not been known only in recent decades, they have been observed since more
than one hundred years. The best known are, however, as an indication and not
limitation, those of the crash of October 1929 and the oil crisis of 1973.
Although the importance of investigations they made, economists have failed to
understand how the economy really works (Posner, 2009). In this sense, different
explanations are theoretically considered to explain the excessive crises and scandals
affecting largely the financial and economic spheres, especially, spanning about the
last five decades. In financial markets, the authors analyze the efficiency of markets
and the rationality of investors and attribute the dysfunction of financial markets to
informational bias. However, in spite of the importance of its implications the rational expectation hypothesis, largely based on the efficient market hypothesis, fails to
explain the excessive change in trading and returns in the major financial markets in
developed and emerging countries (see, Lavoie, 2010). Numerous other authors attribute the excessive change in returns and trading volume in the major international markets to behavioral biases and investors’ belief such as overconfidence (Daniel, Hirshleifer and Subrahmanyam, 1998), optimism (Haruvy, Stahl and Wilson,
1999; Weinstein, 1989; Otten, 1989) or pessimism (De Bondt and Thaler, 1987;
Barberis Shleifer and Vishny, 1998). More recently, Akerlof and Shiller (2009) come
back to reconsider the Keynesian General Theory recommendation and introduce
what they call, such as used for the first time by Keynes (1936), the “animal spirits”
in order to explain how the economy really works.
However, in spite of the importance of prior investigations, the causes of financial
and economic crises and recessions remain disputable and the results remain nonconclusive. This leads to investigate the dysfunction of financial markets introducing variables other than that referred to the rational expectation considering, among
others, investors’ beliefs and behaviors. The aim of this paper is, consequently, to
examine the causes of crises and scandals in the financial and economic world and
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
to understand how the economy really works. In order to do, we investigate together
the hypothesis of rational expectation as well as the behavioral biases. These latter
are expressed in terms of animal spirits including optimism, pessimism, overconfidence and spontaneous reaction. This investigation gives answers to our main question, which is the following:
What are the factors influencing the way how financial and economic spheres
work?
Considering the trading volume and the stock market index as a financial proxy for
the economy work, results, using data for 12 International Capital Markets over
the period spanning August 2002 to mid-November 2011, remain non conclusive.
Classification of the analysis by periods of stability and periods of excessive volatility
indicates same impacts of explanatory variables on the trading volume for different
periods and for about all markets. However, in the global vision, economy is largely
driven by animal spirits. The rational expectation hypothesis loses of significance
and fails to explain how the economy works.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: section 2 presents a theoretical
overview of the factors which are likely able to explain how the economy works. Section 3 describes the methodology and the data framework of this study and specifies
the model to estimate. In section 4, we present and discuss the main results. Section
5 is spared to the conclusion.
Literature Review
Economists consider that economic and financial recessions and crises are mainly
caused by factors excluding changing in thought patterns. They attribute the dysfunction of economies and more specifically of financial markets to the failure of
investors to expect rationally the future incomes and the evolution of stock returns.
Beliefs and sentiments are largely excluded from theoretical and empirical models.
Behavioral finance, however, introduces the beliefs and sentiments such as optimism, pessimism, overconfidence… to explain the excessive volatility in prices and
trading volumes. Akerlof and Shiller (2009, p. 4) argue in the specific framework of
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behavior explanation that “the current crisis bears witness to the role of such changes in
thinking. It was caused precisely by our changing confidence, temptations, envy, resentment, and illusions”. These thinking components compose according to Akerlof and
Shiller what they call the “Animal Spirits”. In this specific framework, they consider
that Human psychology drives the economy and matters for global capitalism. This
behavior argument (i.e. animal spirits) has appeared since about more than seventy
years ago when Keyens (1936) has noted, in his Genaral Theory, that about most of
what we do in our life and especially in economic life are mainly due to behavioral
biases such as animal spirits and not as a simple result of rational reaction toward
acts and events. In this specific area, he argues that “most, probably, of our decisions to
do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days
to come, can only be taken as the results of animal spirits […] and not at the outcome
of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities”
(Keynes, 1932, p. 168). This point of view is supported more recently by Akerlof
and Shiller (2009, p. 168) who insist on an explicit manner on the importance of
the behavioral components of which the animal spirits in the economic life. They argue, “It is necessary to incorporate animal spirits into macroeconomic theory in order to
know how the economy really works. In this respect the macroeconomics of the past thirty
years has gone in the wrong direction. In their attempts to clean up macroeconomics and
make it more scientific, the standard macroeconomists have imposed research structure
and discipline by focusing on how the economy would behave if people had only economic
motives and if they were also fully rational.”. Here, the authors challenge in an explicit
manner the rational expectation hypothesis. We note, accordingly, that the authors
insist on the incorporation of psychological components to explain the evolution of
markets and economies. Thus, a non surprising sentence shown on the cover page
of their book is “How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why it Matters for
Global Capitalism”. This incites to new thinking in the framework of the evolution
of the financial economic world.
Considering both the definition given by Keynes (1936) and that of Akerlof and
Shiller (2009) to the concept of “animal spirits”, we can investigate the impact of several psychological factors on the evolution of the two components of financial markets
namely stock prices and trading volume. However, before these investigations, we try
to define the concept of “animal spirits” according to these authors. Keynes (1936,
p.161) defines the “animal spirits” as “a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction”. From this definition, Keynes excludes all rational components from investors’
behavior. Akerlof and Shiller (2009) continue in the same line of idea and enlarge this
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
definition to insert other behavioral components such as Antisocial behavior or Social
limits of profits, Monetary illusion, Changes in economic equity, Fairness, Legends
instead facts and figures, Corruption, History, Exuberance and overconfidence (see
Akelrlof and Shiller (2009, p. 5-6) and Guldberg (2010) for more details). In this
framework, Keynes (1936) as well as Akerlof and Shiller (2009) challenge the rational
expectation hypothesis and incite to introduce human psychology as the crucial factor
driving investors’ decisions and, therefore, markets and economies.
Keynes challenges, especially, the rational expectation hypothesis since it is based on
a quantitative model neglecting human aspects. He considers, however, that Human aspects matter more than rational expectation in making decision. In this line,
he argues explicitly that about the majority of our decisions depends only on these
behavioral components.
Several empirical studies have confirmed the behavior based explanations of the
economy works in the major international markets in developed and emerging countries. In a recent work, Dhaoui, Farhani and Garfatta. (2012) attribute the changes
in trading volume in the Japanese market to the aggressive reaction of overconfident
investors. Dhaoui (2011) introduce several behavioral components to explain the
economy works in the case of five developed countries: Japan, U.S., Switzerland,
U.K. and France. He developed an empirical model in order to investigate the impact of rational expectation as well as investors’ beliefs such as Overconfidence,
Pessimism, Optimism and Sponateous reaction on trading volume. The results of
the study show that the rational expectation hypothesis fails to explain the evolution of the trading volume as one of the financial components of a stock market.
The impact of the behavioral factors varies, however, from one market to the other
depending on the specificity and the characteristics of the population. The changes
of the trading volume in the context of the Japanese is explained by the aggressive
reaction of more overconfident investors. Oppositely, the change of trading in the
French Market is due, especially, to the excessive pessimism in the investors’ beliefs.
The excessive change in trading in the U.S., the Swiss and the U.K. markets are due,
however, to more than one psychological factor. The reactions of optimistic, pessimistic or overconfident investors as well as that of those with spontaneous reaction
drive these markets and influence largely the evolution of trading.
The investors’ beliefs as components of animal spirits are also considered in several
other studies (Daniel, Hirshleifer and Subrahmanyam, 1998; Haruvy, Stahl and
Wilson, 1999; Weinstein, 1989; Otten, 1989; De Bondt and Thaler, 1987; Barberis
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Shleifer and Vishny, 1998; Ciccone, 2003; Piroscă, 2011). A point of view commonly shared by the major of authors is that investors’ beliefs impact significantly
the economy works and explain in a major part the economy dysfunction.
Taken together, these empirical and theoretical arguments give explanations to the
financial distress. The financial recessions can be interpreted as a consequence of an
interruption of normal functioning of markets. In these lines, Hakkio and Keeton
(2009, p. 6) argue theoretically that “financial stress can be thought of as an interruption
to the normal functioning of financial markets”. The interruption in markets functioning implies the reject of the hypotheses according to which financial markets react
following fundamental prediction. Anomalies and behavioral biases play therefore
a pivotal role in the decision-making process. The investors’ beliefs are, hence, the
most important factors driving the economy works. In this sense, Hakkio and Keeton
(2009, p. 6) consider that “one common sign of financial stress is increased uncertainty
among lenders and investors about the fundamental values of financial assets”. This uncertainty can be explained as a consequence of the non-rational reaction of investors. The
behavioral based reaction induces a distorted prevision of the price evolution given the
uncertainty in investors’ beliefs and sentiments. This influences significantly the evolution of the two components of financial markets namely returns and trading volumes.
Accordingly, the abnormal changes in trading volumes and the low returns largely observed in the major international markets can be explained among others by the reaction of non-rational investors. In this same vein, Dhaoui (2011) among others found
that the rational expectation hypothesis loses of significance in the major international
markets and that economies are driven by behavioral biases such Overconfidence and
Optimism for the specific case of the Japanese Stock Market, Pessimism and “Spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction” for the case of French Stock Exchange and
all factors comprising the “Animal Spirits” behavioral bias, including Overconfidence,
Spontaneous Reaction, Opromism and Pessimism, for the cases of the U.S. the U.K.
and the Swiss Stock Markets.
Data and Methodology
This section presents a description of the sample and the period of analysis. It illustrates also the measurement of each dependent and independent variable that is
used and specifies the model to estimate.
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
Sample Period and Stock Markets Investigated
The sample covers the period spanning from 01 August 2002 to 17 November
2011. The analyses include different markets that have been affected by at least one
crisis during this period. We include here different stock markets in order to investigate the impact of investors’ behavior during the periods of stability and those of
excessive volatility on trading volume. The stock markets investigated are those of
U.S (Nasdaq), Japan (Nikkei225), U.K. (FTSE100), France (CAC40), Switzerland
(SSMI), Malaysia (MLSE), New Zealand (NZSE), Seoul (KS11), Shanghai (SCE
composite), Hong Kong (HIS), Bombay (BSE) and Australia (All ordinaries). Data
is available online on the yahoo Finance pages and on the website of each Stock
Market.
Proxy for Used Variables
The investors’ beliefs change following the evolution of gains and losses across the
unit of time. Ciccone (2003) uses annual earnings forecast to determine optimism.
Optimism is present when the mean annual earnings forecast exceeds the corresponding actual earnings. By extension, pessimism is present when the mean annual
earnings forecast is lower than the corresponding actual earnings. In our case, we
consider than optimism (respectively pessimism) is present when returns exceed (decrease under) a target level. Accordingly, investors act in optimistic way when they
realize gains that exceed a desired level. Let ( R ( R ) ) the level starting from which
the investor can be considered optimistic, with R the average return and ( R ) the
standard deviation of returns. In this sense, the investor is considered optimistic
when he realized returns higher than ( R ( R ) ) at the time (t-1). the investors act
as optimistic when prior returns are higher than this level and in the normal way
if not. Accordingly, the indicator of optimistic sentiments of the investor takes the
value R( t 1) when R( t 1) ( R ( R ) ) and 0 otherwise. This measure was used in
Dhaoui (2011).
Oppositely, pessimistic belief occurs when losses decrease below the level ( R ( R ) ) .
Considering the same structure, investors are pessimistic when R( t 1) ( R ( R ) ) and
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then the indicator of pessimism takes the value R( t 1) , and takes the value 0 if not. This
measure was used in Dhaoui (2011).
When returns are included in the interval ( R ( R ) ) , ( R ( R ) ) investors react
in a spontaneous manner. The spontaneous reaction variable takes, thus, the value
R(t 1) when R( t 1) ( R ( R ) ) , ( R ( R ) ) and 0 otherwise.
Overconfidence occurs when an investor realizes gains in previous date. Overconfidence is more pronounced once investor realizes at the time “t” a gain higher than
that in time (t-1). Considering investor who will make a decision at the time “t”, he
reacts in overconfidence manner if his gains in (t-1) exceed his gains in time (t-2).
Oppositely when gains at time (t-1) decrease below their level in (t-2) the investor
loses of confidence. The variable overconfidence will be investigated considering the
impact of observed return at the time (t-1) (i.e. R( t 1) ) on the trading volume at
the time “t” (i.e. Vt ). This measure was used in Boynton, Oppenheimer and Reid
(2009), Ulussever, Guranyumusak and Kar (2011) and Dhaoui et al. (2012).
Rational expectation supposes that investors anticipate future evolution of returns
considering the realized return at the current time and adjust their anticipations
by the error of anticipation of the returns for the current time. Considering the
time interval (t 1) , t , the rational expectation for the time “t” follows this relation : RtExp R( t 1) E( t 1) , with RtExp represents the expected return at the time
“t”, and E( t 1) represents the error of expectation at the time (t-1) that is equal
to the difference between realized return and expected return at the time (t-1) :
E(t 1) R(t 1) R(Exp
t 1) .
The Model
To investigate the contribution of investors’ beliefs and behaviors to the explanation
of the evolution of trading volume across the time we develop the following model:
Vt 1 RatExpt 2OverConf t 3 Spont Re actt 4Optimismt 5 Pessimismt t
(1)
With Vt represents the natural logarithm of trading volume and t is an error term.
Results of estimation will take into account the periods of excessive volatility of
returns and that of stability. Excessive volatility gives an idea on the dysfunction of
financial markets or more specifically financial crises and recessions.
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
Results and Discussions
To investigate the causes of financial recessions we investigate the effect of the investors’ beliefs on the variability of trading volume in periods of stability and in
periods of high volatility of returns. The periods of high volatility are determined
approximately following dates of crashes and recessions indicated by international
financial and economic organizations (World Bank, IMF, WTO…) and the classification relies on the results of graphical analyses. Hereafter we present graphs of
the evolution of returns spanning the whole period from August 2002 to November
2011 by stock market.
Graph 1. 1st panel : Countries with one single period of Volatility
Figure 2: Japan (Nikkei225), 2328 obs.
-.1
-.1
-.05
-.05
rendement
rendement
0
.05
0
.1
.05
.15
Figure 1: Mlaysia (KLSE), 2287 obs.
01 Jan 02
01 Jan 04
01 Jan 06
01 Jan 08
01 Jan 10
01 Jan 02
01 Jan 12
01 Jan 04
01 Jan 06
01 Jan 10
01 Jan 12
Figure 4: Shanghai (SSE Composite Index),
1493 obs.
-.05
-.1
-.05
rendement
0
rendement
0
.05
.05
.1
Figure 3: New Zealand (NZSE50), 1757 obs.
01 Jan 08
date
date
01 Jul 04
01 Jan 06
01 Jul 07
01 Jan 09
01 Jul 10
01 Jan 12
01 Jul 05
01 Jan 07
date
01 Jul 08
date
01 Jan 10
01 Jul 11
-.1
-.05
rendement
0
.05
.1
.15
Figure 5: Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), 2072 obs.
01 Jul 03
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01 Jul 11
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�Abderrazak DHAOUI
Graph 2. 2nd panel : Countries with two periods of Volatility
Figure 7. Australian Securities Exchanges
(AORD All Ordinaries), 2214 obs.
-.2
-.1
-.1
-.05
rendement
0
rendement
0
.1
.05
.2
Figure 6. Hong Kong (HIS), 2281 obs.
01 Jan 02
01 Jan 04
01 Jan 06
01 Jan 08
01 Jan 10
01 Jul 03
01 Jan 12
01 Jul 05
01 Jul 07
date
date
01 Jul 09
01 Jul 11
-.1
-.05
rendement
0
.05
.1
Figure 8. France (CAC40), 2310 obs.
01 Jul 04
01 Jan 06
01 Jul 07
01 Jan 09
01 Jul 10
01 Jan 12
date
Graph 3. 3rd panel : Countries with three periods of Volatility
Figure 10. U.K. (FTSE 100), 2263 obs.
-.1
-.1
-.05
-.05
rendement
0
rendement
0
.05
.05
.1
.1
Figure 9. Switzerland (Swiss Market SSMI),
2255 obs.
01 Jul 02
01 Jul 02
01 Jul 05
01 Jul 08
01 Jul 05
01 Jul 08
01 Jul 11
date
01 Jul 11
date
Figure 12. Seoul Composite (KS11), 2318
obs.
-.1
-.1
-.05
-.05
rendement
0
rendement
0
.05
.05
.1
.1
Figure 11. U.S. (Nasdaq 100), 2318 obs.
01 Jan 02
01 Jan 02
01 Jan 04
01 Jan 06
01 Jan 08
01 Jan 10
01 Jan 12
01 Jan 04
01 Jan 06
01 Jan 08
01 Jan 10
01 Jan 12
date
date
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
Graphical analyses give an idea about the classification of the countries by periods
of stability and of the high volatility of their markets. Table 1 summarizes this classification by periods of stability and high volatility.
Table 1. Classification of stable vs volatile period by stock markets
August 2002
to March
2003
Markets
April
2003
to Jun
2007
July 2007 to
September
2009
October
2009 to
July 2011
After August
2011
1st Panel
Japan
Bombay Stock Exchange
New Zealand
Shanghai
Malaysia
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
2nd Panel
Hong Kong
France
Australian Securities
Exchange
Stability
Stability
Volatility
Volatility
Stability
Stability
Volatility
Volatility
Stability
Volatility
Stability
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
rd
3 Panel
Switzerland
U.K.
U.S.
Seoul Composite
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
Volatility
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
Stability
According to table 1, we can classify the countries composing our sample in three
panels. The first contains the Japan, Bombay, Shanghai, New Zealand and Malaysia.
These countries have known a high volatility in their markets starting July 2007 to
September 2009.
The second panel includes three countries having two volatile periods namely Hong
Kong, France and Australia. The first volatile period starts in July 2007 and finishes
in September 2009. The second period of volatility starts in August 2011. And,
finally, the last panel contains four countries namely Switzerland, U.K., U.S. and
Seoul. These countries have known three periods of volatility. The first starts in
August 2002 and finishes in March 2003. The second period of volatility plains for
all the period between July 2007 and September 2009. The third period starts in
August 2011. For all panels, starting and final dates are determined approximately
using results in the graphics above.
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Considering these characteristics of international Markets we adopt the same classification and analyze the evolution of investors’ behavior across the periods of stability and those of high volatility. This allows to determine the factors influencing the
investors’ reaction.
Tables 2 to 6 present results for the first panel including markets with a single volatile period covering July 2007 to September 2009.
Table 2. Results for Malaysian Stock Exchange
Countries
Variables
Rational
expectation
Malaysia
Optimism
Pessimism
Spontaneous
Reaction
Overconfidence
Cons_
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
01/08/2002
to 30/06/2007
(Stability)
-0,0018671
(-0,02)
3,952122 ***
(10,12)
-2,966418 ***
(-8,85)
1,772425 ***
(4,39)
5,415741 ***
(2,56)
18,21633 ***
(16,15)
0,1163
0,1133
1456
01/07/2007
to 30/09/2009
(High volatility)
0,029306
(0,22)
2,457814 ***
(5,21)
-2,085144 ***
(-4,20)
1,639592 **
(2,02)
5,529746 *
(1,86)
19,02779 ***
(10,34)
0,1356
0,1214
309
01/10/2009
to 17/011/2011
(Stability)
-0,000863
(-0,06)
2,027082 ***
(4,02)
-2,630279 ***
(-6,38)
6,02156 *
(1,73)
-0,900518
(-0,66)
18,4898 ***
(12,92)
0,1994
0,1918
532
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
Table 3. Results for Japanese Stock Exchange
Countries
01/08/2002
to 30/06/2007
(Stability)
01/07/2007
to 30/09/2009
(High volatility)
01/10/2009
to 17/011/2011
(Stability)
-0,0146175
(-0,18)
-0,00048082
(-0,61)
0,0017469
(0,16)
Optimism
5,496744
(4,19)***
3,987197
(5,96)***
6,365698
(4,64)***
Pessimism
-6,383355
(-5,41)***
-3,651358
(-6,36)***
-4,947251
(-3,80)***
Spontaneous
Reaction
-3,443485 ***
(-2,75)
1,487952
(1,11)
0,5675622
(0,43)
Overconfidence
1,781031 ***
(-2,56)
-0,18953
(-0,49)
0,4319584
(0,59)
12,52128
(13,15)***
11,80451
(11,29)***
11,80701
(11,17)
0,2457
0,2427
1245
0,1119
0,1038
549
0,1602
0,1519
514
Variables
Japan
Rational
expectation
Cons_
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
Table 4. Results for New Ealand Stock Exchange
New Zealand
Countries
01/08/2002
to 30/06/2007
(Stability)
01/07/2007
to 30/09/2009
(High volatility)
01/10/2009
to 17/011/2011
(Stability)
Rational
expectation
-0,0648184
(-0,706)
0,0371711
(0,74)
0,0073104
(0,22)
Optimism
9,17813 **
(2,02)
10,88856 ***
(4,35)
9,682107 ***
(4,69)
Pessimism
-12,42906 ***
(-2,68)
-3,853524 *
(-1,71)
-5,591399 ***
(-3,00)
Spontaneous
Reaction
0,3652308
(0,08)
1,419302
(0,29)
0,5953874
(0,22)
Overconfidence
-0,3954135
(-0,15)
-1,033097
(-0,72)
-1,184377
(-1,01)
17,06697
(10,31)
17,17036
(9,21)
17,15519 ***
(16,78)
0,2164
0,2103
652
0,3571
0,3514
566
0,1677
0,1653
1757
Variables
Cons_
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
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Table 5. Results for Shanghai Stock Exchange
Countries
01/08/2002
to 30/06/2007
(Stability)
01/07/2007
to 30/09/2009
(High volatility)
01/10/2009
to 17/011/2011
(Stability)
0,1174147
(0,079)
0,0000294
(0,02)
0,0000666
(0,96)
Optimism
10,9254 ***
(5,19)
0,3974354 ***
(2,70)
0,0021573
(0,24)
Pessimism
-6,389313 ***
(-3,6)
-0,1794908
(-1,38)
-0,0021634
(-0,33)
Spontaneous
Reaction
7,528852 ***
(2,87)
0,5108541 **
(2,02)
0,0055034
(0,81)
-1,677286
(-0,83)
0,3199599 ***
(3,88)
0,0007502
(0,18)
21,8397 ***
(70,35)
22,1649
(89,75)
22,18064
(3,8)
0,4959
0,4898
416
0,4359
0,4307
549
0,3618
0,3556
523
Variables
Shanghai
Rational
expectation
Overconfidence
Cons_
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
Table 6. Results for Bombay Stock Exchange
Bombay
Countries
01/08/2002
to 30/06/2007
(Stability)
01/07/2007
to 30/09/2009
(High volatility)
01/10/2009
to 17/011/2011
(Stability)
Rational
expectation
0,0001376
(0,01)
-0,0232592
(-0,51)
0,0063136
(0,32)
Optimism
5,975804
(2,60)***
2,754436
(1,96)**
10,53096
(5,59)***
Pessimism
-6,315796
(-2,78)***
-7,391564
(-5,12)***
-11,76311
(-6,89)***
Spontaneous
Reaction
1,315978
(0,73)
-1,754886
(-0,56)
-1,575617
(-0,91)
Overconfidence
-0,2895931
(-0,024)
0,221533
(0,26)
0,1298517
(0,14)
Cons_
9,65496 ***
(65,42)
10,12245 ***
(37,98)
9,843536 ***
(66,67)
0,2642
0,2573
538
0,4983
0,4937
550
0,7266
0,7252
983
Variables
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
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Results in tables 2 to 6 indicate that the hypothesis of rational expectation loses of
significance to explain the variability of trading volume in both: periods of stability
and the period of high volatility in the five stock markets composing this sub-sample. Oppositely, the animal spirits behavior of investors explains about the whole
the variability of trading volume in the same way in periods of stability and in the
period of excessive volatile trading in the case of Malaysian, Bombay and Japanese
Markets. In fact, the reaction of the optimistic investors influences positively the
trading volume. Oppositely, the reaction of the pessimistic investors impacts negatively the trading volume.
Except the case of the Market of Shanghai, for all the other markets (Japan, Malaysia, Bombay and New Zealand) all the components of animal spirits variable impact
in about a similar way the trading volume even in periods of stability or in that of
high volatility. Thus, in the case of these stock markets we cannot attribute the high
variability of trading volume in the period of non-stability to the decisions made by
investors with the animal spirits reaction.
Tables 7 to 9 give results for countries having known two periods of high volatility.
The first takes place spanning from July 2007 to September 2009 and the second
starts in August 2011.
Table 7. Results for Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Hong Kong
Countries
01/08/2002
to 30/06/2007
(Stability)
01/07/2007
to 30/09/2009
(High volatility)
01/10/2009
to 31/07/2011
(Stability)
01/08/2011
to 17/011/2011
(High volatility)
Rational
expectation
0,0094716
(0,38)
-0,0086295
(-0,32)
-0,110444
(-1,27)
0,0569733
(0,48)
Optimism
9,727746
(2,76)***
8,921321
(11,49)***
9,428507
(3,79)***
7,884296
(2,62)***
Pessimism
-1,411207
(-3,96)***
-8,101631
(-10,51)***
-13,29175
(-6,22)***
-6,516842
(-2,52)***
Spontaneous
Reaction
7,963819
(3,07)***
4,095233
(2,07)**
0,6893569
(0,37)
-0,3024628
(-0,06)
Overconfidence
4,144081
(2,33)**
1,599998
(3,38)***
-0,4723748
(-0,40)
0,529921
(0,31)
Cons_
19,67071
(10,57)***
21,42976
(13,60)***
21,10563
(14,04)***
21,36374
(43,87)***
0,2956
0,2926
1192
0,2573
0,2505
555
0,1101
0,1000
447
0,1165
0,0613
86
Variables
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
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Table 8. Results for Australian Stock Exchange
Australia
Countries
Variables
01/08/2002
to 30/06/2007
(Stability)
01/07/2007
to 30/09/2009
(High volatility)
01/10/2009
to 31/07/2011
(Stability)
01/08/2011
to 17/011/2011
(High volatility)
Rational
expectation
-0,0733917**
(-1,98)
-0,0141237
(-0,41)
-0,008164
(-0,53)
0,0058698
(0,18)
Optimism
12,60348***
(3,52)
3,956039*
(1,90)
7,341521***
(2,66)
3,530575
(1,05)
Pessimism
-12,88308***
(-4,03)
-1,486838
(-0,82)
-10,31233***
(-4,24)
-4,137054
(-1,30)
Spontaneous
Reaction
1,081162
(0,47)
4,417508
(1,04)
1,79318
(0,64)
1,420481**
(2,00)
Overconfidence
-1,995823
(-1,21)
-0,6302036
(-0,54)
-1,346957
(-0,92)
-1,872936
(-0,98)
20,17996***
(18,17)
20,6959***
(84,77)
20,89099
(13,52)
20,83000***
(50,92)
0,3181
0,315
1094
0,3295
0,3236
572
0,5447
0,2396
456
0,6179
0,5949
89
Cons_
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
Table 9. Results for French Stock Exchange
Countries
01/08/2002
to 30/06/2007
(Stability)
01/07/2007
to 30/09/2009
(High volatility)
01/10/2009
to 31/07/2011
(Stability)
01/08/2011
to 17/011/2011
(High volatility)
0,0021435
(0,02)
0,0009854
(0,09)
-0,0084168
(-0,83)
-0,0144636
(-0,378)
Optimism
1,382417***
(3,78)
7,443982***
(7,27)
6,406972***
(2,75)
5,60802***
(2,49)
Pessimism
-2,007958***
(-6,00)
-8,564161***
(-8,79)
-13,11779
(-6,52)
-7,076897***
(-3,64)
Spontaneous
Reaction
-1,344369
(-0,66)
-0,6155619
(-0,31)
-1,952723
(-0,86)
-6,716509
(-1,32)
Overconfidence
-1,794604
(-1,14)
-0,7888018
(-1,26)
-2,153704*
(-1,83)
-3,137049***
(-2,56)
18,43785***
(13,92)
18,77479***
(12,72)
18,64237***
(10,73)
18,93855***
(44,66)
0,4708
0,467
698
0,1748
0,1675
574
0,1058
0,0961
468
0,2636
0,2132
79
Variables
France
Rational
expectation
Cons_
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
Results in tables 7 to 9 indicate for the three countries (France, Hong Kong and
Australia) that optimism and pessimism hypotheses as components of animal spirits
bias explain the economy works in both: periods of stability and periods of high
volatility. For the specific case of Hong Kong, results show also that the reactions of
overconfident investors and those with spontaneous reaction impact in their turn
the economy works. The hypothesis of rational expectation remain non-significant
for the three countries even the period is of stability or of high volatility.
Results for countries with three volatile periods are given in tables 10 to 13.
Table 10. Results for Swiss Stock Exchange
Countries Variables
Switzerland
Rational
expectation
01/08/2002
01/04/2003
01/07/2007
01/10/2009
01/08/2011
to 31/03/2003 to 30/06/2007 to 30/09/2009 to 31/07/2011 to 17/11/2011
(High volatility)
(Stability)
(High volatility)
(Stability) (High volatility)
-0,1111289
(-0,55)
-0,0126377
(-0,51)
0,0073701
(0,71)
0,0127327
(1,56)
-0,0034019
(-0,19)
Optimism
8,386031***
(2,44)
6,39788**
(2,25)
8,499868***
(6,87)
6,928711**
(2,09)
9,748404***
(2,91)
Pessimism
-1,886762
(-0,59)
-6,534211***
(-6,04)
Spontaneous
Reaction
4,607594
(0,61)
0,7302884
(0,34)
-3,699637
(-1,42)
-1,872912
(-0,72)
2,218586
(0,31)
Overconfidence
1,456902
(0,67)
-1,798946
-1,26
-1,260576*
(-1,67)
-3,097999*
(-1,90)
-4,712409***
(-2,48)
Cons_
17,69276
(35,37)
17,80328***
(14,19)
18,17439***
(11,68)
17,77902***
(11,37)
17,8621***
(38,28)
0,1164
0,0559
79
0,3831
0,3802
1071
0,1629
0,1554
564
0,1134
0,1037
463
0,2936
0,2446
78
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
-9,597526*** -8,147291*** -11,218586***
(-8,05)
(-6,57)
(-3,76)
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
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Table 11. Results for UK Stock Exchange
UK
Countries Variables
Rational
expectation
01/08/2002
01/04/2003
01/07/2007
01/10/2009
01/08/2011
to 31/03/2003 to 30/06/2007 to 30/09/2009 to 31/07/2011 to 17/11/2011
(High volatility)
(Stability)
(High volatility)
(Stability) (High volatility)
0,0019037
(0,02)
0,0065213
(0,39)
-0,0014575
(-0,07)
0,0027181
(0,12)
-0,138409
(-0,14)
Optimism
2,977028
(0,59)
3,993008*
(1,69)
3,729751***
(3,15)
6,913669***
(2,62)
6,150827***
(2,34)
Pessimism
-4,354747
(-0,84)
-8,801088***
(-3,89)
-5,386519*** -4,992221***
(-4,85)
(-5,84)
-8,58405***
(-3,60)
Spontaneous
Reaction
-11,50274
(-1,09)
-1,253282
(-0,85)
-2,563612
(-1,06)
-2,953955
(-1,08)
4,72253
(0,88)
Overconfidence
-3,349596
(-1,02)
-1,881756*
(-1,73)
-1,403448**
(-1,96)
-4,08298***
(-2,76)
-3,493217***
(-2,42)
Cons_
21,07296
(30,97)
0,4505
0,4143
82
21,17952***
(25,71)
0,196
0,1922
1073
20,94948***
(13,09)
0,361
0,3553
570
20,59363***
(12,03)
0,1016
0,0917
460
20,57805**
(56,537)
0,2585
0,207
78
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
Table 12. Results for US Stock Exchange
US
Countries Variables
01/08/2002
01/04/2003
01/07/2007
01/10/2009
01/08/2011
to 31/03/2003 to 30/06/2007 to 30/09/2009 to 31/07/2011 to 17/11/2011
(High volatility)
(Stability)
(High volatility)
(Stability) (High volatility)
Rational
expectation
-0,0013339
(-0,05)
0,0060562
(0,34)
0,0027018
(0,19)
-0,0149435
(-0,30)
0,023649
(0,91)
Optimism
4,77477***
(4,30)
2,655937**
(1,96)
2,548728***
(3,82)
1,6657
(0,67)
4,279347***
(2,29)
Pessimism
-1,711587
(-1,31)
-3,733872***
(-2,6)
9,967913***
(3,62)
-1,079388
(-0,90)
Overconfidence
0,4343431
(0,61)
-0,4189386
(-0,56)
Cons_
21,06314
(97,67)
21,28201***
(23,93)
21,46282***
(21,67)
21,44617***
(13,21)
21,38062***
(76,58)
0,1862
0,1561
141
0,2117
0,2078
1027
0, 4599
0,4554
611
0,3575
0,3504
461
0,3421
0,2965
78
Spontaneous
Reaction
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
-2,644234*** -8,066696*** -7,355007***
(-4,23)
(-3,72)
(-4,85)
-0,2475651
(-0,18)
-5,27086**
(-2,25)
2,132501
(0,65)
-0,9743913*** -3,109979*** -2,874493***
(-2,42)
(-2,38)
(-2,93)
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
Table 13. Results for Seoul Stock Exchange
Countries Variables
Seoul
Rational
expectation
01/08/2002
01/04/2003
01/07/2007
01/10/2009
01/08/2011
to 31/03/2003 to 30/06/2007 to 30/09/2009 to 31/07/2011 to 17/11/2011
(High volatility)
(Stability)
(High volatility)
(Stability) (High volatility)
-0,0500564
(-0,35)
0,006156
(0,50)
-0,0014951
(-0,12)
0,0019769
(0,34)
0,000056
(0,09)
Optimism
6,323745***
(2,55)
5,3764027***
(2,78)
4,455644***
(2,51)
0,2132635
(0,10)
0,1409836
(0,09)
Pessimism
3,448822
(1,54)
-2,934043
(-1,51)
-0,0555116
(-0,04)
-2,642974*
(-1,66)
-2,506756*
(-1,80)
Spontaneous
Reaction
-2,143304
(-0,52)
3,009507
(1,36)
2,603327
(0,82)
-0,3265051
(-0,24)
-0,9799284
(-0,31)
Overconfidence
3,455121***
(2,40)
2,152928*
(1,88)
2,143484**
(2,11)
0,348115
(0,38)
-0,6763232
(-0,76)
Cons_
13,54845***
(39,96)
12,80747***
(78,72)
12,90968***
(52,13)
12,75659***
(12,68)
12,82902***
(48,73)
0,3976
0,3787
165
0,2213
0,2176
1054
0,1874
0,1801
559
0,1636
0,1542
453
0,1653
0,1125
85
R-Square
Adj R-Square
N. obs.
***: Significant at the level 1%, **: Significant at the level 5%, *: Significant at the level 10%.
Results in tables 10 to 13 indicate even for countries having three periods of volatility that the hypothesis of rational expectations loses of significance and fails to
explain the evolution of trading volume. Sentiments and beliefs drive, however, the
economy. In fact, optimism affects significantly and positively the trading volumes
whereas pessimism presents significant and negative influences. The weight of impacts is similar even the period is of stability or characterized by a high volatility.
Taken together results for the whole sample including countries with one single volatile period, those with two periods and those with three volatile periods tend toward
the same conclusions. The rationality fails to explain how the economy really works;
sentiments, beliefs and animal spirits drive, however, the economy. These results are
consistent with the prediction of Keynes (1936) who argues that all decisions to do
something constitutes most probably a consequence of only animal spirits reaction
of the decision-makers and not a result of rational thinking based on statics and
models. The results confirm and spur the prediction of Akerlof and Shiller (2009)
who plead in favor of the fact that “Human Psychology Drives the Economy”.
Considering these results we cannot conclude moreover that Human Psychology constitutes the only factor which causes definitely the dysfunction of the economy. We
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�Abderrazak DHAOUI
can conclude, however, that sentiments, beliefs or animal spirits can be considered
among the main causes of crises once there is no institutional and governmental
control. Markets trade ordinary and the accumulation of biases caused by the reaction of non-rational investors induces across the time abnormal losses or abnormal
gains. Non-rational investors (those with animal spirits reaction) continue their
trading even when markets are not healthy and this behavior lunches the first signs
of dysfunction of the financial markets. When institutions and government organizations delay their intervention the impact on the trading can be exacerbated.
Conclusion
The causes of financial recessions and economy dysfunction has come to the forefront of attention of academics, analysts, practitioners, investors, government and
all who are interested in financial markets and this probably because of the problems
which have been revealed in the economic sphere.
Non-rational expectation, investor sentiments, behavioral biases, animal spirits are
all factors considered to explain the dysfunction of the economy once the hypothesis of rationality loses of power to explain the excessive volatility and the abnormal
gains and losses in the financial markets.
Using a sample of 12 international markets over a period of analysis spanning August
2002 to the mid-September 2011, results shown that economy works is explained
in terms of animal spirits and that the hypothesis of rational expectation loses of
significance and this for all the markets.
After classification of the analysis by periods of stability and volatility, results indicate that beliefs and animal spirits drive the economies whatever the period is of
stability or of high volatility.
Results cannot serve, however, to conclude what factor affects the variety of trading
across the periods of high volatility opposite to that during the periods of stability.
They allow, however, to understand only what factors can explain how the economy
works. Financial markets trade in non-rational way. Investors’ belief and their behavioral bias conduct their decision-making process and induce therefore a cumulative dysfunction on financial markets taking the form of repeated cycles.
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�Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
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Animal Spirits and Trading Volume in International Financial Markets between 2002 and 2011
Author
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DHAOUI, Abderrazak
Abstract
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The change in trading volume and returns and the dysfunction of the economy and more specifically of financial markets has been increasingly attracting attention of researchers, analysts, practitioners, institutions as well as government organizations. This paper investigates the factors that are able to explain how financial markets work. Testing the rational expectation hypothesis and different components of animal spirits including investors’ beliefs and their behavioral biases, results show that economy is driven by animal spirits and not by rational behavior. Considering the classification of the sample by periods of stability and periods of excessive volatility, results incite to think that financial markets work in terms of economic cycles.
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International Burch University
Date
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2013-03-10
Keywords
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Article
PeerReviewed
HG Finance
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1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics
May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo
Anlambilim Çerçevesinde Kelime ve ÇağrıĢım ĠliĢkisi
Nazife Burcu Erden
Tùrkçe Eğitimi Bôlùmù
Gazi Üniversitesi, Tùrkiye
nberden@gazi.edu.tr
Özet: Bu çalıĢmanın amacı; dilin anlam çerçevesinde yadsınamaz bir yeri
olan çağrıĢımın, anlambilim içerisindeki yeri ve ônemini ortaya koyarak
dili kullanan bireylerin kelimelerin farklı anlamlarını daha iyi
kavramalarını, temel anlam dıĢındaki sôyleyiĢleri daha bilinçli
kullanmalarını sağlamaktır. Bu araĢtırmada nitel araĢtırma yôntemlerinden
olan dokùman analizinden yararlanılmıĢtır. AraĢtırmada anlambilimin
dilbilim, ruhbilim ve mantık ile olan iliĢkisi gôz ônùne alınarak dil ve
çağrıĢım arasındaki iliĢki ortaya konmuĢtur. AraĢtırmanın sonucunda;
dilbilimin konusu olan dilin ortaya çıkıĢı, geliĢim ve değiĢim sùreçleri
çağrıĢım çerçevesinde incelenerek dile ait ilk kelimelerin ortaya çıkıĢının,
kelimelerin yan anlam kazanmasının, aktarmaların oluĢumunun çağrıĢım
unsuruna bağlı olduğu ortaya konmuĢtur.
Anahtar Kelimeler: Anlambilim, dilbilim, kelime, çağrıĢım.
GiriĢ
Zihnin çalıĢma prensibi (Buzan, 1999) olarak tanımlanan çağrıĢım ; bireyin bir kelime,
kavram, olgu ya da olaydan hareketle farklı dùĢùncelere ulaĢabilmesidir. Dolayısıyla içinde yaratıcılık
olan her unsur, çağrıĢımsal iliĢkilerin sonucu olarak gôrùlmektedir. DùĢùnce geliĢtirme yollarından
olan benzerlik, zıtlık, yakınlık, sıklık, zaman ve mekân iliĢkisi kurma; çağrıĢım ilkeleri adı altında
Aristoteles‘ten gùnùmùze geliĢerek gelmiĢ ve çoklukla felsefe, psikoloji, eğitim ve gùnùmùzde dilbilim
literatùrùnde yerini almıĢtır.
Insanlığın temel ihtiyaçlarından biri iletiĢimdir. ĠletiĢimi sağlayan unsurlardan biri de dildir.
Dilin ortaya çıkıĢı, ilk kelimelerin icadı, bizi yùzyıllar ôncesine gôtùrse de dil oluĢumundaki temel
unsur olan çağrıĢım, bugùn kelimelere ve dile yôn vermede hâlâ ônemini korumaktadır. Dilin
geliĢimini ve değiĢimini inceleyen anlambilim, bu ôzelliği sebebiyle çağrıĢımı temel alan bilim
dallarından biridir. Anlambilim ve çağrıĢım arasındaki iliĢkinin ortaya konmasıyla, dilin değiĢim ve
geliĢim esasları da daha net anlaĢılmıĢ alacaktır.
Anlambilim Guiraud‘ a gôre ùç temel bilim dalından beslenir. Bu ùç bilim dalını, ―Niçin ve
nasıl iletiĢim sağlarız? Gôsterge nedir? ĠletiĢim sırasında bizim ve karĢımızdakinin zihninde neler olup
biter? Bu iĢlemin dayanağı, fizyolojik ve ruhsal dùzeneği nedir?‖ gibi soruları irdeleyen ruhdilbilim,
―Gôstergenin gerçekle bağlantıları nelerdir? Hangi koĢullarda bir gôsterge, anlatmakla gôrevli olduğu
bir nesne ya da duruma uygulanabilir? Doğru bir anlamlamayı sağlayan kurallar nelerdir?‖ gibi soruları
irdeleyen mantık ―Sôzcùk nedir? Bir sôzcùğùn biçim ve anlamı arasındaki bağıntılar, sôzcùklerin
iliĢkileri nelerdir? Sôzcùkler iĢlevlerini nasıl yerine getirir?‖ gibi sorunlarla ilgilenen dilbilim
oluĢturmaktadır (Guiraud, 1999). Dil ve anlambilim iliĢkisi içerisinde ônemli role sahip olan
çağrıĢımın, yıllarca dilin geliĢiminde etkin rol oynadığı tespit edilmiĢtir; ancak litaretùrde dil ve
çağrıĢım iliĢkisi ùzerinde ana hatlarıyla ôzel bir yer verilmemiĢtir. Bu çalıĢmanın amacı; anlambilim
çerçevesinde çağrıĢımın dile olan etkilerini ortaya koyarak dile daha hakim bir kullanımın oluĢmasını
sağlamaktır.
Anlambilim ve dilbilim iliĢkisi, literatùrde sôzcùk anlambilimi olarak da yer almaktadır.
Sôzcùkleri, Saussure gôstergeler olarak adlandırmakta ve gôstergeyi, bir kavramla iĢitsel bir imgeyi
birleĢtiren unsur olarak tanımlamaktadır. Bu iki unsur sıkı sıkıya birbirine bağlıdır ve birbirini
çağrıĢtırmaktadır (Saussure, 1998). Saussure‘e gôre, insan zihninde gôstergeler çeĢitli çağrıĢımların
odak noktasıdır ve dôrt farklı koldan çeĢitli gôstergelerin çağrıĢımlarına yol açar (Aksan, 2009).
Bunlar; aynı kôkten gelen ôgelerin (sev, sevgi, sevgili, sevmek, sevimli, sevimsiz vb.), anlamca
yakınlığı olan ôgelerin (galeri, fuar, sergi, kermes vb.), biçim eĢliği gôsteren ôgelerin (bilgi, silgi, yergi,
sevgi, vergi vb.) ve ses imgesi yakınlığı olan ôgelerin ( masa, yasa, tasa, kasa vb.) çağrıĢımlarıdır.
ÇağrıĢımlar, sadece gôstergelerin değil; anlamların da oluĢum ve çeĢitlenmesinde etkin rol
oynamaktadır.
Anlam, gôstergelerden yola çıkılarak oluĢturulmaktadır. Gôndergesel ifadeler (temel anlam),
yan anlamlar ve tasarımlar sôzcùğe dayalı bir anlam meydana getirmektedir. Wittgenstein‘in
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―Sôzcùğùn anlamı, onun dil içindeki kullanımıdır.‖ (Wittgenstein‘den Akt. Aksan, 2009). sôzù
gôstergelerin sadece tek bir temel anlama sahip olmalarına rağmen, değiĢik bağlamlar içinde farklı
farklı kavramlara karĢılık geldiğinin altını çizmektedir. Bu da ôzellikle iletiĢimde, bağlamın ve
dolayısıyla çağrıĢımların ne kadar ônemli olduğunu gôstermektedir. Bağlamların bizi farklı kavramlara
gôtùrmesi, gôstergelerin yan ve mecaz anlamlar edinmesiyle mùmkùndùr.
Yan anlam ve mecazlar, dilin anlam çerçevesini belirledikleri gibi dile zenginlik de
kazandırmaktadırlar. Her ne kadar gôstergelerin nedensizliğinden bahsedilse de, dile ait ilk kelimelerin
oluĢumunda bir nedenlilik gôrùlmektedir. Platon bu gôrùĢù ―Ġlk adların ortaya çıkıĢında kullanılan
seslerin mutlaka doğaları gereği, objelere benzer olmaları gerekmektedir.‖ ifadesiyle anlatmaktadır.
GùneĢi resmederken beyazı, gôkyùzùnde maviyi, toprakta kahverengiyi, denizde maviyi
kullanmamızın sebebi ile ilk adların temsillerden oluĢması aynı temele dayanmaktadır. Yansıma olarak
nitelendirilen kelimeler Platon‘un bu gôrùĢùnù destekler niteliktedir (Platon‘dan Akt. Atademir ve
Yetkin, 2000). Doğadan yola çıkarak çağrıĢımın benzerlik ilkesi ile oluĢturulan kelimeler, dilin geliĢim
sùrecinde yine aynı ilke doğrultusunda yan ve mecaz anlamlar kazanarak dile zenginlik
kazandırmaktadır.
Kelimelerin yapı ve anlam değiĢimleri, aktarmalar ve bunlara bağlı olarak geliĢen anlamsal
olaylar çağrıĢımın ilkeleriyle alakalıdır. ÇağrıĢım ilkeleri kullanaılarak anlama ve anlatmada aynı
kelimelere farklı anlamlar yùkleyerek daha geniĢ bir bakıĢ açısı oluĢturmamız mùmkùndùr. Bireyin
kendini ifade etme ihtiyacının daha çok giderilebilmesi için, çağrıĢımsal iliĢkilerin oluĢturduğu ve
sùrekli değiĢen dil çerçevesinin geniĢ sınırlarından haberdar olmak gerekir. Bunun için de anlambilim
ve çağrıĢım arasındaki iliĢkinin otaya konması gerekmektedir.
Yöntem
Bu çalıĢmada nitel araĢtırma yôntemlerinden olan dokùman inceleme yôntemi kullanılmıĢtır.
Dokùman incelemesi, araĢtırılması hedeflenen olgu veya olgular hakkında bilgi içeren yazılı
materyallerin analizini kapsamaktadır (Yıldırım ve Simsek, 2006).
Problem Durumu
Ana Problem
Kelime kavramı ekseninde çağrıĢım ve anlambilimin iliĢkisi nedir?
Alt Problemler
ÇağrıĢımın, kelimelerin ortaya çıkıĢları ve değiĢimlerindeki etkisi nedir?
ÇağrıĢımın, kelimelerin yan anlam kazanmasına olan etkisi nedir?
ÇağrıĢımın, aktarmalara olan etkisi nedir?
Kelimelerin Ortaya ÇıkıĢı ve DeğiĢimi
Kelimelerin ortaya çıkıĢı ile ilgili gôrùĢ bildiren ilk isimlerden biri Platon‘dur. Platon doğalcı
gôrùĢù savunan bir filozoftur. Dolayısıyla ona gôre adlar, baĢkalarına bilgi vermek ve bir Ģey ôğretmek
içindir. Platon, adlar ile onların adlandırdıkları Ģeyler arasında doğal bir bağ olduğunu savunmaktadır
(Platon‘dan Akt. Atademir ve Yetkin, 2000).
Porzig de ―Eski çağlarda bir dildeki sesin, seda çıkaran bir Ģeyle tabii iliĢkisi olmuĢtur; ancak
bu iliĢki zamanla gôrùlemez hâle gelmiĢtir.‖ (Porzig, 2003). diyerek Platon‘un bu gôrùĢùnù
pekiĢtirmiĢtir. Bir kelimenin anlam değiĢimine uğraması yùzyıllar alabilmektedir (Aksan, 2009). diyen
Aksan da ilk baĢlarda kurulan anlamsal iliĢkilerin sonradan fark edilemeyebileceğini bu Ģekilde ifade
eder.
Gùnùmùzde ―yansıma sôzcùkler‖ olarak nitelendirilenler, Porzig ve Platon‘un bu gôrùĢùne
ôrnek teĢkil etmektedir. Doğadan çağrıĢımın benzerlik ilkesiyle oluĢturulan yansıma sôzcùkler, her
dilde mevcuttur. Tùrkçede kôpeğin ―havlamasına‖ ―hav hav‖ derken Ġngilizcede ―bark bark‖,
Yunancada ―gav gav‖, Katalancada ―bup bup‖, Hintçede ―bho bho‖ denmesi, yansıma sôzcùklerin her
dilde mevcut olduğunu ve doğayı taklit ederek oluĢturulduğunu gôstermektedir; ancak bu kelimeler
sôyleniĢ ve ağız ôzelliklerine gôre farklılıklar gôstermektedir. Bununla ilgili olarak Platon, kelime
oluĢturanların hepsinin aynı hecelerle iĢ gôrmemesini demircilere benzetir. Her demirci aynı amaç için
aynı aleti yaparken aynı demir ùzerinde çalıĢmaz; ônemli olan ona aynı Ģekli vermektir. Aynı Ģekil
verildiği sùrece ister burada, ister baĢka bir ùlkede olsun o alet yine de iĢ gôrùr (Platon‘dan Akt:
Atademir ve Yetkin, 2000).
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Antishenes ise adların, adlandırdıkları Ģeylerin ôzlerini ya da doğalarını baĢkalarına
aktarılmasını sağlayan unsurun adlar ile onların adlandırdıkları Ģeyler arasındaki iliĢki olduğunu ifade
etmektedir. Ona gôre, adların zihnin duyu algısı yoluyla doğrudan bağlantı kurması ile bilinen,
adlandırdıkları nesneye doğal bir benzerliği vardır ve adlandırdıkları nesneye benzemeyen adları ad
olarak kabul etmemek gerekir. (Aysever, 2002). Kratylos'ta, Hermogenes'in ―Adların doğruluğunun
alıĢkanlık ve anlaĢmadan baĢka bir ôlçùtù yoktur. Bir Ģeye hangi adı verirseniz doğru ad odur; sonra
verdiğiniz adı bırakıp baĢka bir ad verecek olsanız bile, bu ikinci ad da en az ikincisi kadar doğru
olacaktır. Hiçbir adın adlandırılan Ģeyle doğal bir bağı yoktur. Tek ôlçù onu kullanan insanların
gelenekleri ve alıĢkanlıklarıdır .‖(Aysever, 2002). sôzù ise doğalcı gôrùĢten çok farklıdır; ancak her iki
gôrùĢùn de ortak bir noktası vardır. Doğalcı gôrùĢe gôre kelimeler doğadaki karĢılıklarına benzer
biçimde ifadelendirilmektedir. Burada, çağrıĢımın benzerlik ilkesi sôz konusudur. Doğalcı olmayan
gôrùĢe gôre, kelimeler alıĢkanlıklar sonucu zihinde kavramlarla eĢleĢmektedir.
Anlam değiĢmeleri içerisinde yer alan anlam daralması, geniĢlemesi, iyileĢmesi ve
kôtùleĢmesi gibi anlambilimsel olaylar, o kelimenin toplumun zihninde ilk halinden daha farklı
çağrıĢımlar uyandırması ile gerçekleĢmektedir. Yabancı dilden alınan kelimeler, anlaĢmalar sonucu
dilde yeni bir kavrama karĢılık gelmesine rağmen (kelime ve karĢılığı arasında herhangi bir benzerlik
iliĢkisi kurulmadan) zamanla yabancı dilden alınan kelimenin dilde farklı bir kavramı karĢılamaya
baĢladığı gôrùlùr. Bunun sebebi kelimenin bireylerin zihninde ilk zamanlarda karĢıladığı kavramı
çağrıĢtırmıyor olmasıdır.
ÇağrıĢım, zihnin çalıĢma prensibi olarak addedilmektedir (Buzan, 1999). Dolayısıyla dile yôn
veren toplum, yaptığı her değiĢimde bu prensipten bilinçsiz de olsa faydalanmaktadır. Anlamın
daralması ve geniĢlemesi de bu ilkeye gôre gerçekleĢmektedir. Örneğin, ônceleri ―uĢak‖ kelimesi
―çocuk‖ kavramını karĢılarken Ģimdi ―hizmet veren kiĢi‖ olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu değiĢme,
―çocuk‖un da ―hizmet eden, sôyleneni yapan‖ kiĢi olması ve bu iki kavram arasında bôyle bir benzerlik
iliĢkisi kurulması sonucu gerçekleĢmiĢtir. Bu durum anlam daralması olarak gôrùlse de gùnùmùzde
yerel ağızlarda çocuk için ―uĢak‖ kelimesinin kullanımına rastlanmaktadır (Uğur, 2001).
Kelimelerin ortaya çıkıĢlarının yanı sıra tùremelerinde de çağrıĢımın çok ônemli bir yer
tuttuğu ifade edilmelidir. Sondan eklemeli bir dil olan Tùrkçede tùremiĢ sôzcùkler, yapım eki almıĢ
sôzcùkler olarak tanımlanır ve kelimeye gelen ekin yapım eki olup olmadığının anlaĢılması için, ek
alarak oluĢturulan kelime ile ek almadan ônceki hâli arasında bir iliĢki olması beklenir. Örneğin ―gôz‖
kelimesi basit hâldedir ve ―-lik‖ eki alarak ―gôzlùk‖ adı verilen yeni bir kavramın karĢılığı hâline gelir.
Ancak gôz ve gôrmeyi kolaylaĢtırmak için kullanılan bir araç olan gôzlùk arasında, anlamca bir iliĢki
vardır. ―gôzlùk‖ kelimesi ―gôz‖ kelimesini çağrıĢtırmaktadır. ―balık‖ kelimesi ise basittir; çùnkù
kelimeyi birbiriyle alakalı iki farklı kavrama ayıramayız. ―bal‖ ve ―balık‖ arasında bir anlam iliĢkisi
yoktur. Bal, bize balığı çağrıĢtırmamaktadır. Buradan hareketle, çağrıĢım kurulmadığı sùrece yeni
kelimeler ve anlamalardan bahsetmenin gùç olduğunu sôylemek mùmkùndùr.
Kelimelerin Yan Anlam Kazanması
Kelimeler kullanıldıkça karĢıladıkları kavramların baĢka nesnelerle benzerlik, yakınlık ya da
iliĢkilerine dayanılarak aktarmalara baĢvurulmakta, bunlar yavaĢ yavaĢ çok anlamlı duruma gelmekte
ve yan anlam kazanmaktadır. Yan anlam; somuta eklenen yeni somut kavramlar, somuta eklenen yeni
soyut kavramlar, soyuta eklenen yeni soyut kavramlar ve soyuta eklenen yeni somut kavramlar olmak
ùzere dôrt farklı Ģekilde oluĢmaktadır (Ünlù, 1993).
Kelimelerin yan anlam kazanma sùreçlerinde genellikle temel anlam çağrıĢımı merkezini,
çekirdeği oluĢturmaktadır. Kimi kez biçimsel benzerlik, kimi kez iĢlev benzerliği kimi kez de konum
ortaklığı bu çağrıĢımın sinyalleri olmuĢtur (Uğur, 2001).
ÇağrıĢım ile kazanılan yan anlamlar, kelimenin kullanım çeĢitliliğini arttırdığı gibi anlamı da
zenginleĢtirmektedir. Doğan Aksan‘a gôre (2009) yan anlam; insanoğlunun kavramları daha etkili,
daha somut, daha kolay biçimde dile getirebilmek için aralarında biçim, iĢlev, amaç iliĢkisi ve yakınlığı
bulunan baĢka kavramlara dayanarak açıklamak istemesinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu da kelimelerin
farklı anlamlar kazanmasını sağlamaktadır.
Todorov, yan anlamla ilgili çağrıĢımları belli bir tasnife sokmuĢtur. Yan anlamları, iĢaretleyene
bağlı çağrıĢımlar ve iĢaretlenene bağlı çağrıĢımlar olmak ùzere iki temel ùzerinde çeĢitlendirmiĢtir. Bu
çağrıĢımlar benzerlik ve bitiĢiklik iliĢkisine dayanmaktadır (Todorov‘dan Akt. Filizok, 2011).
a) ĠĢaretlenen benzerliğine dayanan yan anlamlar: Bu, eĢ anlamlılıktan doğan bir çağrıĢım
Ģeklidir. Kelime bağlama dayalı olarak ya da sadece kendi temel anlamıyla iliĢkili olarak kendiyle eĢ
anlama gelecek diğer kelimeyi çağrıĢtırabilmektedir. "Osmanlı zamanında okullar ùçe ayrılırdı."
cùmlesinde "okul" kelimesi tarihsel bağlamdan dolayı "mektep" kelimesini çağrıĢtırabilir.
b) ĠĢaretleyen benzerliğine dayanan yan anlamlar: Burada ses benzerliği esas alınmaktadır. Ses
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May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo
benzerliğine dayalı çağrıĢımlar ahenkle ilgili çağrıĢımlara sebep olduğu gibi eĢsesliliği de gùndeme
getirmektedir. Tam veya yarım ses benzerlikleri baĢka kelimeleri çağrıĢtırır. Bôylece onlar da
anlamlandırma alanına girer. Uyak, aliterasyonlar, eĢsesli kelimeler kolaylıkla çağrıĢım
oluĢturabilmektedir.
c) ĠĢaretleyen bitiĢikliğine dayanan yan anlamlar: Bir iĢaretin kullanımı bazen
eski kullanımlarını ve eski bağlamını çağrıĢtırır. Bazı devirlerin bazı edebî
akımların çok tekrarlanan, değiĢmeyen bir kelime kadrosu vardır. Bir eserde
bôyle bir kelimenin kullanılması eski kullanımlarına bağlı anlamları çağrıĢtırır.
Bir nevi metinler arası anlam transferi gerçekleĢir. Meselâ telmih ve parodide
bitiĢikliklikten doğan yan anlamlar sôz konusudur.
d) ĠĢaretlenen bitiĢikliğine dayanan yan anlamlar: Bazı kavramlar, yakın anlamlılığıyla
birbirini çağrıĢtırır: Tilkinin kurnazlığı, suyun saflığı buna ôrnek gôsterilebilir (Todorov‘dan Akt.
Filizok, 2001).
ÇağrıĢım sonucu oluĢan yan anlamlar; dile zenginlik sağlamakta, kelimelere farklı anlamlar
yùkledikleri için dilin anlam çerçevesini de geniĢletmektedirler.
Aktarmalar
Pek çok dilbilimcinin dilin temel niteliklerinden saydığı ve çokanlamlılığı doğuran etkenlerin
baĢında gelen anlam olayı, aktarmalardır. Aktarmalarda benzetmelerde olduğu gibi, anlatılmak istenen
kavram, onunla bir yônden iliĢkisi, benzerliği, yakınlığı olan baĢka bir kavramla anlatılmaya çalıĢılır.
Bôylelikle de gôsterge yeni bir anlam kazanmıĢ olur. Etkileyici ve gùçlù anlatım sağlayan sôz sanatları
arasında ele alınan aktarmalar, aynı zamanda anlam değiĢmelerine yol açmaları sebebiyle dilciler ve
dùĢùnùrler tarafından o çerçevede incelenmiĢ; Reisig ve Bréal‘den baĢlayarak anlambilimcilerin
ùzerinde durdukları konu olmuĢtur (Aksan, 2009). Aktarmaların gerçekleĢmesini sağlayan en ônemli
nedenlerden biri de yeni sôzcùk bulma hızımızla ôğrenme hızımız arasındaki bùyùk açıktır. Her yeni
gôndergeye yeni bir gôsteren bulunabilmesinin olanaksızlığı da eldeki sôzcùklerin anlamca
geniĢletilmesine sebep olmuĢtur (Uğur, 2007). Bu da yine kelime oluĢumunda çağrıĢımın ônemini
ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle doğadan doğaya yapılan aktarmalarla oluĢturulan yeni kelimeler, bunun
en gùzel ôrneğidir. Aktarmalar, insandan doğaya, doğadan insana, doğadan doğaya olabildiği gibi,
duygular arasında ve soyut-somut kavramlar arasında da olabilmektedir.
ÇağrıĢım kavramını ilkeleriyle beraber ilk kez ortaya koyan Aristoteles, Poetica adlı eserinde
―yaĢamın akĢamı‖ aktarmasıyla çağrıĢım ve aktarma arasındaki iliĢkiyi de ôrneklemiĢ olmaktadır.
―Fısıldayan ağaçlar, omuzlarına beyaz Ģal atmıĢ dağlar, suskun ormanlar, kızgın sular, neĢeli
ilkbahar, kùskùn yapraklar, veda Ģarkısı sôyleyen çiçekler‖ insana ait ôzelliklerin benzerlik ilkesiyle
doğadaki varlıklara aktarılmasına ôrnek teĢkil etmektedir. Ağaç dal ve yapraklarının hafif bir rùzgâr
esmesiyle hıĢırdaması ―fısıltı‖ yı çağrıĢtırmakta ve insandan doğaya bir aktarım sôz konusu olmaktadır.
Buradaki çağrıĢımlar ne kadar gùçlùyse, aktarmalar da o denli kalıplaĢmaktadır. Bu durum daha çok
doğadan insana aktarmalarda sôz konusudur.Cesur bir oğlan çocuğu için ―aslan‖, kurnaz biri için
―tilki‖ benzetmeleri bu durumu daha da somutlaĢtırmaktadır.
―kôpek, eĢek, domuz, kaz vb‖ kelimeler, aĢağılama amacıyla kullanılırken ―sert, piĢkin, tatlı,
yumuĢak, yapıĢkan‖ gibi kelimeler insanların karakter ôzelliklerini ifade etmek için kullanılmaktadır.
Bu kullanımlarda kùltùrel unsurlar belirleyici olmaktadır. Toplumsal kurallar, gelenek ve gôrenekler
aktarmaların ve simgelerin oluĢumunda belirleyici unsurlardır ve gôstergelerle anlam arasındaki iliĢkiyi
yani çağrıĢımları ortaya koymaktadırlar. Bu durum, çağrıĢımların kùltùrel değerlerle belirlendiğini
ortaya koymaktadır.
Doğadan doğaya aktarmalar Tùrkçede sıfat tamlamalarından ziyade birleĢik sôzcùk
oluĢturmaktadır. ―kuĢburnu, keçi boynuzu, turna gagası, aslanağzı, horozibiği, aslanpençesi‖ gibi
hayvanlardan bitkiye aktarmalar olabildiği gibi; ―çekiçbalığı, kılıçbalığı, kayıĢbalığı‖ gibi nesnelerden
hayvanlara da aktarmalar yapmak ve yeni kelimeler oluĢturmak mùmkùndùr.
Nesnelerden bitkilere aktarılarak oluĢmuĢ kelimelerden olan ―gelinfeneri çiçeği‖ incelenirse,
çiçeğin eski dônemlerde yolu aydınlatmak için kullanılan gaz lambalarına benzediği ve ortasında sarı
lamba gibi duran yuvarlak kısmının etrafında, tıpkı gelin duvağını andıran beyaz dantel gôrùnùmlù bir
yaprağın olduğu dikkat çekmektedir. Bu çiçeği, ―gelinfeneri‖ olarak adlandırmak için gelin duvağını
bilmek ve çiçeği gôrùnce bitki ve nesne arasında benzetmeye dayalı bir çağrıĢım iliĢkisi kurmak
gerekmektedir.
Gôrùntù ve davranıĢ benzerliği ile ―kırlangıçbalığı, kirpibalığı, kôpekbalığı‖ gibi hayvandan
hayvana yapılan aktarmalar da yine benzerlik ilkesiyle yapılan çağrıĢıma ve bundan kaynaklanan
kelime tùretimine ôrnek teĢkil etmektedir.
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―viĢneçùrùğù, yavruağzı, gùlkurusu, gecemavisi, gôkmavisi‖ gibi doğadaki varlıkların,
renkleri adlandırmak için kullanılması da renklerin o kavramları çağrıĢtırmasıyla alakalı olup yine
çağrıĢımın kelime oluĢumundaki yerini ortaya koymaktadır.
―keskin bakıĢ, acı çığlık, tatlı sôz, yumuĢak huy‖ gibi ifadeler ise duyular arası aktarmalara
ôrnektir. ―acı‖ tat alma duyumuzla algılayabileceğimiz bir hisken, ―acı çığlık‖ ifadesiyle duyma
organımızın algıladığı bir duyu hâline gelmiĢtir. ―Acı‖ hissi, insanın canını yakan, onu mutsuz eden bir
histir. ―Acı çığlık‖ ile de duyulan sesin insanı mutsuz ettiği, onda olumsuz duygular uyandırdığı ifade
edilmektedir. Burada da yine benzerlik ilkesi etkin rol oynamaktadır.
Bulgu ve Yorumlar
Elde edilen bulgular çağrıĢım ve anlambilim iliĢkisi çerçevesinde, ùç baĢlık altında
incelenerek yorumlanmıĢtır. Bu baĢlıklar ―kelime‖ ùst baĢlığı altında; kelimelerin ortaya çıkıĢı ve
değiĢimi, kelimelerin yan anlam kazanması ve aktarmalardır.
1. Kelimelerin Ortaya ÇıkıĢı
Platon doğalcı bakıĢ açısıyla kelimelerin doğadaki seslerin taklidi ile oluĢtuğunu
sôylemektedir. Bu da çağrıĢımın benzerlik ilkesinin temel olduğu bir anlayıĢı ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bu
durum, kelimelerin ortaya çıkıĢında bir nedenlilik olduğunu gôstermektedir. Ancak bu nedenlilik daha
çok yansıma kelimelerde ortaya çıkmaktadır. Doğalcı gôrùĢù savunan bir diğer isim olan Antishenes
ise adlandırdıkları nesneye benzemeyen adları ad olarak kabul dahi etmemektedir. Antishenes, bu
konudaki doğalcı gôrùĢùnù çok dar ve katı bir çerçeve ile sınırlandırmıĢtır.
Porzig de Platon‘a yakın bir gôrùĢ bildirirken kelimelerin ilk baĢta nedenli olsa dahi bu
nedenliliğin ilerleyen zamanlarda gôzden kaybolduğunu belirtmiĢtir. Örneğin ―ôlmek‖ anlamına gelen
―gergek bulmak‖ kelime grubundaki ―gerek‖ kelimesinin Eski Tùrkçede ―eksik, noksan‖ anlamına
gelmektedir (NiĢanyan, 2011). Ölmek kelimesi ise ―can vermek‖ (TDK, 2005) yani bir Ģeylerin
eksilmesi anlamındadır. Ölùnce ruhun bedenden ayrıldığı, eksildiğine dair inançla anlam iliĢkisi
kurularak yapılan bu kelime grubunda ilk baĢta fark edilemese de esasında açık bir bilinçlilik yani
nedenlilik bulunmaktadır.
Hermogenes ise doğalcı gôrùĢùn karĢıtıdır ve ona gôre kelime oluĢumunu sağlayan onu
kullanan insanların gelenekleri ve alıĢkanlıklarıdır. Burada nedenlilik yoktur, dolayısıyla çağrıĢımın
benzerlik ilkesinden de sôz edilemez; ancak çağrıĢımın alıĢkanlıkların oluĢmasını sağlayan sıklık
ilkesinin gôz ônùne alınması gerekmektedir.
Kelime kullanımının alıĢkanlıklara bağlı olması; o dili kullanan toplumun zihninde, kelimeyi
duyunca o kelimeyle ilgili kavramların çağrıĢması ile alakalıdır. Yani doğalcı bakıĢ açısıyla kelimelerin
oluĢumunda benzerlik ilkesiyle kendini gôsteren çağrıĢım, alıĢkanlıkların kelimelere hayat verdiğini
ileri sùren gôrùĢte kendini sıklık ilkesiyle var etmektedir.
2. Kelimelerin Yan Anlam Kazanması
Belli bir bağlam ve konu olmaksızın bir kelimeyle karĢılaĢıldığında zihnimizde ona ait oluĢan
imgeye temel anlam denmektedir. Temel anlam, kelimelerle varlıklar arasında kurulan iliĢkilerde en sık
olanıdır. ÇağrıĢımın kolay ve hızlı olmasını sağlayan sıklık faktôrù, dilde temel anlam kavramının
oluĢmasını sağlamıĢtır. En sık kullanılan anlamlar en çok ve en kolay akla gelen anlamlardır. Temel
anlam, çağrıĢımın sıklık ilkesiyle açıklanırken yan anlam benzerlik ilkesiyle açıklanmaktadır.
Literatùr taramasında da gôrùldùğù gibi yan anlamlar, çağrıĢım temelli olarak oluĢmaktadır.
Bu oluĢumlar içerisinde en çok yer tutan, çağrıĢımın benzerlik ilkesidir. Yan anlamlar, kelimelere farklı
anlamlar yùkledikleri için dilin anlam çerçevesinin zenginleĢmesini sağlamaktadırlar. Yan anlam
oluĢumunun temelinde çağrıĢımın olduğu gôz ônùne alınarak, dilin anlam çerçevesinin geniĢlemesinde
çağrıĢıma dayalı bir nedenlilik olduğunu sôylemek mùmkùndùr. Dolayısıyla, yan anlam oluĢumunu
sağlayan çağrıĢımın dile olan katkısını ortaya çıkarmak ônem taĢımaktadır.
Yan anlam kazanan kelimeler, kelimenin temel anlamıyla mutlaka bir yônden ortaklık
gôstermektedir. ―Testerenin diĢleri kırılmıĢ.‖ cùmlesindeki ―diĢ‖ kelimesi, temelde ―Çene kemiklerinin
ùstùne dizili, ısırıp koparmaya ve çiğnemeye yarayan sert, beyaz organlardan her biri.‖ (TDK, 2005)
olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Ġnsana ait bu parçanın cansız bir nesnede kullanılması, o nesnenin ùzerinde
sıra sıra dizilmiĢ, kesip koparmaya yarayan, sert parçaların insan diĢine gôrsel ve iĢlev yônùnden
benzerlik gôstermesinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Ġnsan diĢinin kesip koparmaya yarayan sıra sıra dizilmiĢ
kısmı, testerenin kesmeye yarayan kısımlarıyla çeĢitli yônlerden bir benzerlik oluĢturmuĢ ve testerenin
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―diĢleri‖ insan diĢini çağrıĢtırmıĢtır. Dolayısıyla kelime artık yan anlam kazanmıĢtır. ―Bana dôrt diĢ
sarımsak ver.‖ cùmlesindeki ―diĢ‖ sôzcùğù de insan diĢi gibi sıra sıra dizilmiĢ, yapı olarak uçları sivri,
alt kısmı daha geniĢ ve beyaz renkte olan sarımsağın kısımlarını ifade etmek için kullanılmıĢtır. Bu
ôrnekte hem renk, hem de Ģekil itibariyle bir benzerlik iliĢkisi gôrùlmektedir.
―Masanın ayağı kırılmıĢ‖ cùmlesindeki ―bacak‖ kelimesi, insanların ayakta dengede
durabilmesi için gôvdenin altında bulunan bir uzuv anlamında kullanılır; ancak bu cùmlede, masanın
dengede durabilmesi için masanın yùzeyinden yere uzanan kısım olarak kullanılmıĢtır. Ġnsan bacağının
iĢlev ve gôrsel ôzelliği ile masanın altındaki kısımlar arasında çağrıĢım oluĢturulmuĢ ve kelime yan
anlam kazanmıĢtır.
―Yolun baĢı, yokuĢun baĢı, dağın baĢı, çekmecenin gôzù, sıranın gôzù, mağaranın ağzı,
bardağın ağzı, yorganın yùzù, sehpanın ayağı, kôprùnùn ayağı, kapının kolu vb‖ gibi pek çok kelime
çağrıĢımlar sonucu yan anlam kazanmıĢtır.
3.Aktarmalar
Aksan‘ın da belirttiği gibi, aktarmalar dilin sôyleyiĢ zenginliğini ve ifade gùcùnù arttırmaktadır.
Aktarmaların doğadaki varlıklar arasında iliĢki kurarak kavramların birbiri yerine kullanılması ile
oluĢtuğu dikkate alındığında çağrıĢımın benzerlik ilkesinin, aktarmalarda çok ônemli bir yeri olduğu
gôrùlmektedir. Dildeki pek çok birleĢik kelimenin, bu aktarmalar sonucu oluĢması çağrıĢımın; hem
dilin kelime hazinesini hem de dilin anlam çerçevesini zenginleĢtiren ônemli bir unsur olduğunu ortaya
koymaktadır.
Sonuç ve Öneriler
Sonuç
Elde edilen bulgular neticesinde varılan en ônemli sonuç; kelime oluĢumu ve kelimelerin
karĢıladıkları anlamların değiĢim ve geliĢim sùrecinde, nedensizlik ilkesinin var olduğu ancak pek çok
kelimenin nedenlilik ilkesine bağlı olarak oluĢtuğu ve geliĢtiğidir. Bu nedenliliğin olmasını sağlayan
unsur ise çağrıĢımdır.
Her ùç alt probleme yônelik bulgu ve yorumlar incelendiğinde çağrıĢımın; kelime oluĢumu,
değiĢimi ve geliĢimi sùrecinde etkin rol oynadığı literatùr desteğiyle tespit edilmiĢtir.
Öneriler
ÇağrıĢım temelli bir yan anlam ve mecaz anlam sôzlùğù hazırlanmalı ve bu anlamlar
kelimenin temel anlamıyla iliĢkili olarak ortaya konmalıdır. Temel anlamla iliĢkilendirilerek ôğrenilen
yan ve mecaz anlamlar daha iyi anlaĢılacaktır. Bu sôzlùğùn amacı kelime anlamlarının ne olduğunu
açıklamaktan ziyade; bireylere yan ve mecaz anlamları tahmin etmeye yônelik bir yôntem sunmaktır.
GeliĢen teknoloji ile birlikte dilimize giren yabancı kavramları aynen almaktansa, çağrıĢımın
benzerlik ilkesinden yola çıkarak dilde mevcut olan kelimelerle iliĢkili ôz kavramlar oluĢturmak daha
faydalı olacaktır. ―computer‖ için kullanılan‖ bilgisayar‖ kavramı bu ôneriye ôrnek teĢkil etmektedir. Bu
ôrnekler ve oluĢumlar desteklenerek arttırılmalıdır.
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Referenses
Aksan D. (2009). Anlambilim. (4. Basım). Engin Yayınevi.
Aysever, R. L., (2001) Kratylos: Adların Doğruluğu ve Bilgi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Edebiyat
Fakùltesi Dergisi, 19 l ( 2 ), 153-166.
AytaĢ, G. (2009). ―Ġlköğretim Öğrencilerinin Anlama ve Kavrama ÇalıĢmalarında Kelime Hazinesinin
Önemi‖. Tùrk Yurdu..
Buzan, T. (2009). MuhteĢem Hafızanızla TanıĢın, Ġstanbul: Boyut Matbaacılık.
Erden, N. B. (2010). Tùrkçe Dersinde ÇağrıĢımın Kullanımı Ġle Ġlgili Gereklilikler ve Öneriler. Yùksek
Lisans tezi. Gazi Üniversitesi, Eğitim Bilimleri Enstitùsù, Tùrkçe Eğitimi Anabilim Dalı.
Guiraud P. (1999). Anlambilim. Çev: Vardar, B. Ġstanbul: Multilingual.
Guiraud P. (1994). Gôstergebilim. Çev: Yalçın, M., Ankara: Ġmge Kitabevi.
Kıran Z., Kıran, A. E. (2006). Dilbilime GiriĢ. (3. Baskı). Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık.
Platon. (2001). Phaidon. Çev: Kemal Yetkin , H. Ragıp Atademir, Ġstanbul: Sosyal Yayınlar.
Porzig, W. (2003). Dil Denen Mucize. Çev: Ülkù,V. Ankara: Tùrk Dil Kurumu Yayınları.
Saussure, D. F. (1998). Genel Dilbilim Dersleri. Çev: Vardar, B. Ġstanbul: Multilingual.
TDK. (2005). Tùrkçe Sôzlùk (10.Baskı). Ankara: Tùrk Dil Kurumu Yayınları.
Uğur, N. (2007). Anlambilim. Ġstanbul: Doruk Yayımcılık.
Yıldırım, A. ve Simsek, H. (2006). Sosyal Bilimlerde Nitel AraĢtırma Yôntemleri. Ankara: Seçkin
Yayınları.
Ünlù, M.(1993). Dil Bilgileri. Cem Yayınevi: Ġstanbul.
http://www.nisanyansozluk.com/?k=gergek+bulmak, 15.04.2011
www.ege-edebiyat.org/modules.php?name=Downloads&d_op=get, 15.04.2011
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Extent
The size or duration of the resource.
565
Title
A name given to the resource
Anlambilim Çerçevesinde Kelime ve ÇağrıĢım ĠliĢkisi
Author
Author
Erden, Nazife Burcu
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Bu çalıĢmanın amacı; dilin anlam çerçevesinde yadsınamaz bir yeri olan çağrıĢımın, anlambilim içerisindeki yeri ve ônemini ortaya koyarak dili kullanan bireylerin kelimelerin farklı anlamlarını daha iyi kavramalarını, temel anlam dıĢındaki sôyleyiĢleri daha bilinçli kullanmalarını sağlamaktır. Bu araĢtırmada nitel araĢtırma yôntemlerinden olan dokùman analizinden yararlanılmıĢtır. AraĢtırmada anlambilimin dilbilim, ruhbilim ve mantık ile olan iliĢkisi gôz ônùne alınarak dil ve çağrıĢım arasındaki iliĢki ortaya konmuĢtur. AraĢtırmanın sonucunda; dilbilimin konusu olan dilin ortaya çıkıĢı, geliĢim ve değiĢim sùreçleri çağrıĢım çerçevesinde incelenerek dile ait ilk kelimelerin ortaya çıkıĢının, kelimelerin yan anlam kazanmasının, aktarmaların oluĢumunun çağrıĢım unsuruna bağlı olduğu ortaya konmuĢtur.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2011-05
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
P Philology. Linguistics