324 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e70c81c58fa76dbd998a2144407751d0.pdf 5ab432bd5b7d57fcaa7bf2440963e2f9 PDF Text Text Theological Significance of Sustainable Development Bilal SAMBUR Turkey Abstract: There is a combat today between economy, ecology and technology. In order to reduce this combat, a new approach developed under the umbrella of sustainable development. As a result of various environmental problems, the relationship between religion, development and environment became a hot issue in the field of religion. Today, a theological approach known as ecotheology is very influential among the followers of various religious movements.In this regard, one of the main questions is this: What are sustainable values for a sustainable development? In this paper, we will argue that religion could play an important role as a provider of sustainable values for a sustainable development and the necessity of spirituality for it. The word crisis has often been used by many people in order to express the present state of our planet and humanity. Most of us think that our planet and humanity is in crisis, because as whole humanity we are facing great problems, such as arms race, economic stagnation, the depletion of nonrenewble resources, climate change, widespread malnutrition, the explosion of population and so on. Humanity and our planet experienced many disasters throughout human history. But our present crisis differs from previous ones, since it is the first time we are experiencing the possibility of total extinction of humanity and planet. Every year in Earth Day (22 April) people express their worries about the future of the planet and ecological problems such as the diminishing biodiversity, global warming, depleting fish stock, defrostation and so on. The conservation of our habitats and species is one of the most important problems of the day. The fact of our day can be expressed as follows: ‘“Our planet and humanity are in peril.” When we talk about the crisis of environment, planet and humanity, it means that we are talking about the crisis of creation. “Our planet and humanity are in peril” means creation is at risk. Environment is often used as the key word in our present day discussions. But we prefer creation, instead of environment, because the term creation is a broader term than environment. Creation involves a richer and deeper moral and spiritual universe.Furthermore, the term environment separates human from natural. As a matter of fact, human and nature are complementary parts of creation. We are an essential part of God’s creation and Creation will not fulfill its purpose apart from us.The term environment is a useful concept, which focuses our attention merely on the natural world, but it is not a sufficient conceptual tool, which directs us to care for both human and natural creation. Modern no-spiritual values are not helpful to make man and woman as the friend of environment and creation. As a result of materialism and scientism, human being become someone, who does not care about creation, because he/she does not see any connection between himself/herself and creation. Modern man/woman suppose that human activity does not give harm to the earth, nature and creation and destroy its balance. Although environtamalism criticizes modern man’s attitude toward nature, it has not been able to create a paradigm, which revolves around the foundamental values of human society. Modern values makes human being s care of free environment Our creational problems have mostly been produced by modern economy, science and technology, because we do not use them in the service of of creation, rather they become effective mechanisms, which exploit human and natural worlds together. Furthermore, there is a serious combat between them. What we need today is not combat, but collaboration. Economy, science and technology must collaborate with each other in order to combat against malnutrition, population growth, powerty, climate change and other natural problems. The followers of various religions are also concerned about the present state of the world and they start to express their views about nature, technology, development and so on. As a theological approach ecotheology is very influential among religious people. Many religions and spiritual movements aim to restore humankinds’ lost unity and connection with the cosmic order. In order to do it, religion serves as a way, which criticizes the present condition as well as provides spiritual values for a more sustainable human life. In this paper, we intend to criticize modern materialism and present our reflections, which support the idea of sustainable development from theological perspective. One of the modern tendencies is the trivialization of religious and spiritual convictions and push them toward the margins of human culture. Many people think that there is no connection between our religiousspiritual convictions and our ideas about development, nature, ecology and so on. Spirituality and religion have 305 �been regarded as a taboo and excluded from the field of development.1Separating state and religion could be a good thing in the field of politics, but the same separationism cannot be considered as constructive in the field of nature and development. It is requirement of our day to restore connections between religion-spirituality and other areas of human life, such as ecology, economy and development. In the face of great ecological, natural, social and human problems, it is no longer possible to practice irresponsible, unmenageable and endless development programs on the Earth. In order to save humanity and Earth, there is an urgent need for a new, responsible and humanly vision. The journal of Scientific American calls such vision as ‘Managing Planet Earth.’2 The essence of this vision is the idea of sustainable development. According to the idea of sustainable development, the exploitation of our human and natural resources must be prevented and the direction of investments, the orientation of technological developments and institutional changes must meet human needs and aspirations.3 In other words, the vision of sustainable development seeks a sustainable balance between human and nature, technology and ecology, economy. Conservation and maintainance of the world is the basic objective behind sustainable development. We are responsible for today as well as for tomorrow. It is important to consider our present needs, but this is not enough. We must also reflect and act responsibly for the preservation of the needs of future generations. Sustainable development aims to accomodate the ability of continual development and a constrained process of dynamic change for human and natural well-being together. The idea of sustainable development is a challenge for humanity, because it requires the harmony between human, nature and development and make development, which is unmanageable so far, as manageable. Human desire for progress is not the only one, which must determine ecology, economy and science. Sustainable development aims to create a world, in which human needs would simply be one among many needs of Earth and humanity. The vision of sustainable development implies that growht is no longer the only objective of development. The qualities of life, eradication of powerty, elimination of regional imbalances, the well-being of individual and society and various environmental concerns became central parts of development. Instead of growth, the concept of justice became the chief focus of sustainable development, which seeks a balance between economy, ecology, individual and society. The vision of sustainable development does not neglect the spiritual well-being of human individuals, instead it recognizes the satisfaction of the spiritual needs of individuals as important as economic needs. Sustainability and spirituality are united in the vision of sustainable development. What is the value of sustainable development from theological perspective?Basically, sustainable development represents a state of harmony between God, humanity, society and nature.Our understanding of sustainable development, first of all, is not antropocentric, because it makes God, society and nature as centers alongside with man. Secondly, our theological understanding is not utilitarian, which could cause the efficient exploitation of human and natural resources. We need to reconceive humanity in the light of nature and God and understand also God and nature in the light of antropology. Antropology, sociology, theology and ecology are becoming natural elements of sustainable developments, because the law of creation is this: ‘everything and everyone is connected to everything else and every one.’4 God created human being as His representative in the world and put the Earth under the service of humankind. Although the earth is under the service of humankind, human being has the responsibility to protect the Earth against destruction. Being God’s representative on the earth does not mean that man/womankind is absolute lords and masters of the world, that nature has no master except man/woman. The absolute masterhood of humankind over the Earth could create an alienation between humanity and nature. Human being is not the master of the world, but he/she is its custodian. Today, human being have failed to do his/her responsibility as God’’s representative in the world, because human activity, modern technological and scientific progress do not protect the Earth, but destroy it. Some people talk about the Earth as ‘the wasteworld’5 in order to conceptualize the dangers the Earth facing. 1 K.A.V.Beek, Spirituality: A Development Taboo?’, Development in Practice, vol. 10, no. 1, February 2000. www. developmentinpractice com 2 See: Scientific American, Managing Planet Earth, New York : W.H. Freeman, 1990. 3 World Commision on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, Oxford : Oxford University Pres, 1987, p. 46. 4 This is a revision of Commoner’s ‘law of ecology’, which is expressed as follows: ‘Everything is connected to everything else.’ See: B.Commoner, The Closing Circle: Nature, Man and Technology, New York : Knopf, 1971, p. 33. 5 T.Berry, The Dream of the Earth, San Francisco : Sierra Club Boks, 1988, p. 29. 306 �Environmentalism movement accuses man for the present state of the world. Calvinism also considers humankind as the cancer of of the earth. If human activity could cause the destruction of the nature and the world, so there must be something wrong and dangerous in human nature. Such inhuman qualities, like human selfishness, greed and rapacious exploitation of natural resources, make man/woman as the chief destroyer of of nature and society. The absolute control and use of nature for human needs and purposes could destroy the planet itself. In order to avoid such disaster, it is necessary for man/woman to learn to limit himself/herself while he/she deals with nature and creation. Religion is the most influential teacher, who could say to human being: ‘Limit himself/herself.’ God reminds humankind the delicate proportions of the universe and commands him/her to maintain its natural balance. God allows man/woman to use everything within limits, but He does not allow them to use natural resources wastefully. Man/woman must have virtuous qualities so that they could act God’s responsible representative in the world.Religion demands from man/woman, who is considered to be as the representative and co-worker of God, spiritual growth not materialism, contentment not greed, patience not recklessness, moderation not maximisation, balance not combat, cooperation not conflict, establishing justice not corruption. It is often assumed that man/woman has the absolute right to rule all creation without any limitation. Many religions try to substitute this idea by the equal respect for all creatures. Unfortunately, religions could not achieve the first idea by the second, which requires respect for all creatures. The real spiritual revolution is to limit human rule regarding creation. As long as man/woman does not feel the need to limit his/her actions in the realm of nature and creation, it is impossible to institutionalize the idea of sustainable development in the hearts and soul of man. Human beings naturally have limitless and unsatisfied desires. They do not want merely something, they want to have everything. Desire for having everything leads man and woman to elevate three things to the level of God. These are science, technology and economy. Modern man and woman believe that science ultimately gives them the knowledge of everything, technology will provide facilities to do everything and economy would give them opportunity to have everything. Briefly, modern man/woman suppose that he/she must have everything and consume everything. Consumerism become the distinct quality of modern man/woman, who practices consumerism as his/her life style and invents a culture around it. Acquisitive nature of human being and the religion of consumerism makes the situation of of world worse, not better. Excessive consumption and acquisition wipe out our present as well as our future. There is no preservation and restrain in the modern culture of consumerism, which jeopardizes the future of our children. If the culture of consumerism continues to prevail, future genrations could not even have our present positions. From religious perspective, the culture of sustainablity and spirituality must replaces the culture of consumerism Religion totally rejects the culture of consumerism and encourages people to be moderate in their consumption, not to be excessive. The hegemonic understanding of science, technology and economy must be changed. The true totalitarianism of our time is scientific, technological and material totalitarianism.Science, technology and economy are not deities, who could give us everything. They are just limited means, through them we could satisfy our limited needs. As Mesthene says, ‘technology is man’s toolbox.’6 They are not tools for our unsatisfied appetite for power and possession.Our blind faith in science, technology and economy is one of the chief sources of global crisis. The idea of sustainable development compels us to give up our blind faith in science, technology and materialism, and develop a new perspective toward them.Religion could provide a spiritual and moral compass while science and technology supply vehicles for sustainable development. Sustainable development is not to limit the rate of economic growth, but it is an approach which aims to change the quality and quantity of growth, preserve the present state of the world and push people to value the world as the highest level. We no longer value our life and planet in the highest terms. Materialistic understanding of economics is a clear indication of the devaluation of everything. Economical materialism reduces everything to commodity as something produced for making profit. However, everything is not commodity. Human being and the world are not commodities. They mean more than that. There is a spiritual, human and personal dimension in our lives and our environments. Treating human life and the world as commodity threats the existence and stability of the human and natural life. Our relationships with society and nature should be human relationships. In other words, it must be IThou relationships. Kinship, religion and community protect human essence of social relations. But today our relations become I-It relations, instead of I-Thou. In other word, we are treating each other not as human being, but as a thing. Religion and spirituality could help to re-humanize our dehumanized relations. Almost all of the grave dangers threatening human and planetary existence originate from human actions. However, much shallow thinking on sustainable development has focused exclusively on the relationships of people with the 6 Cited in W., Gunston, ‘Technology for Man’s Survival,’ in E.Bono, (Ed.), Technology Today, London : Routledge, 1971. p. 60. 307 �natural environment - without considering the dimension of people-to-people relationships, which is the heart of a sustainable human society. In this regard, religion has a role to play, because moral and spiritual values of religion traditionally encourage people–to-people and people-to nature relations in a more humanely and sustainable way. Spiritualization of developmen is needed as mush as the humanization of our relations is necessary. Materialist development is not compatible with the vision of sustainable development. In order to actualize sustainable development, the spiritualization of development is a vital requirement, which makes possible the participation of individual spiritually and emotionally to the process of sustainablel development Spiritually sustainable development is not a type of development, which has only material dimension.A healthy economical and ecological paradigm must satisfy our material and spiritual demandes together. Spiritualization of development includes two dimensions: The first one is God cares about us and our world and the second one is we care about God and His creation. We lost our spiritual quality, which encourages us to care about God and His creation. We become the prisoners of materialist subjectivism, which merely focused on the satisfaction of our material desires. The ideology of selfism has been promoted by media, school and so on. A selfist character does not have ability and capacity to go beyond his/her boundaries and be someone who deeply cares about the rest of creation and acts for the sake of God. There is a need to develop a new spiritual-educational approach, which aims to flourish the character and commitments that will go beyond this self-centredness. Selfism and greed are the main temptations, which lead human being to violate the proportions of creation and damages its balance. Religion is one of the most influential factors, which deeply influences human thought, emotion and behavior. Religion provides a set of beliefs, which asks people to go beyond selfism and materialism.Religious beliefs can be used in order to guide human relationships with society and nature in a way which contribute to spiritual and meterial development and well-being. Sustainable development aims to make developmental process as a human act, which is ecologically and economically sustainable. Sustainable development does not represent a blind opposition to progress, but it tries to present an alternative vision to blind progress.In this vision, there are three essential objectives. The maintaining of the economic growth in the long run is the first objective. The second objective is to achieve intergenerational justice in the use of natural resources. The third objective is to restrict the increase in pollution, defrostation, the diminish of biodiversity and climate change for preserving the present state of environment. The idea of sustainable development implies limits and boundaries for physical, material and economical growth. There are limits to "external" (physical, socio-economic) human development. But there are no limits to "internal" (growth in knowledge, emotional maturity , spiritual depth) human development. There are also no boundaries for each and every human person to find inner tranquility and satisfaction by giving himself/herself to the rest of God’s creation. In modern era, our priorities have been changed. We do everything for the sake of a limitless material and economical growth while we do almost nothing for a limitless spiritual development. It is impossible to have a limitless material growth, but it is possible to experience a limitless spiritual progress. It is time to limit material development and focus on spiritual development, which can provide a sustainable moral and educational framework for sustainable development. Population explosion, agricultural production, the decrease in natural resources, industrial production and pollution are the main factors, which necessitate the limit to growth.7 Sustainable development is meaningful, affective and fruitful if it applies itself as human development, which based on spirituality as the top priority in order to meet external needs of creation. Summing up, sustainable development has moral, social, scientific, psychological, spiritual and political dimensions. Economists or economics alone cannot resolve it. Without spirituality there is no sustainable development Without self-restraint there is no ecological, social and individual human sustainability. Spirituality helps us to see the material part of life in relative terms and limit our acts. Spirituality also teaches us that we would be accountable for our behaviors in the presence of God in Hereafter. We are not only responsible for our behaviors in this world, but also we will be accountable in the next world. Our accountability not only includes our individual and social sins, but also it contains our environmental sins. So we must watch our actions, and learn to act more responsibly, spiritually and humanely. 7 See: D.H.Meadow, D.L.Meadows, J.Randers, W.W.Behrens, The Limits to Growth,New York : Signet, 1972. 308 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 372 Title A name given to the resource Theological Significance of Sustainable Development Author Author SAMBUR, Bilal Abstract A summary of the resource. There is a combat today between economy, ecology and technology. In order to reduce this combat, a new approach developed under the umbrella of sustainable development. As a result of various environmental problems, the relationship between religion, development and environment became a hot issue in the field of religion. Today, a theological approach known as ecotheology is very influential among the followers of various religious movements.In this regard, one of the main questions is this: What are sustainable values for a sustainable development? In this paper, we will argue that religion could play an important role as a provider of sustainable values for a sustainable development and the necessity of spirituality for it Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed L Education (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b2d7a30ad1c0bd191b1afb7215d947ac.pdf f408e7fb1760683a5d7150f5712c9556 PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Water for Sustainable Development: Example from Past to Future Fatma ŞENSOY Dr., Đstanbul, Turkey Abstract: Freshwater is not only a finite resource that is imperative for sustainable development but also economic growth, political and social stability, human and ecosystem health, and poverty eradication. While water issues have long been on the international agenda, the debate on how to meet the growing global demand for freshwater has intensified in recent years: over 800 million people currently lack access to safe drinking water, while about 2.5 billion lack access to adequate sanitation. In response to these challenges, the World Water Forum was initiated as a platform to include water issues on the international agenda. The WWC, an international policy think-tank established in 1996, addresses global concerns over the pressures on the Earth’s freshwater resources. Besides todays global water issues,the historical example given below is a way to enlight our future by the means os usage and management of the water suplies. In XVI. Century in Istanbul there was a strong scarcity on water. The increasing population and welfare by time, the consumption of water has increased during the time. The water supply systems were not sufficient for Istanbul. The dimension of this scarcity was mentioned by Selaniki. One bottle of water was 15 akçe. Those days, a worker’s daily wage was 6 akçe. A skillled worker’s daily wage was 12 akçe. Due to these problems ; in 1554 Suleiman the Magnificient ordered his architect Sinan to supply water to the Đstanbul from the forests located on the north of the city. The grand vizier of Sultan, opposed this huge project because of its cost. The grand vizier notified that if the water comes to the city in large amounts; the Đstanbul would became to an attractive position for people from many nations and occupations.This would cause the increase in the population of the city coming aside with many other problems. Kanuni has endowed 5 villages and a town for the finance of this big investment. Kanuni mentioned that his will is “fountains should be built to every district. To the high places that, the consturction of fountain is impossible the fresh water well should be placed. By that the old people, poor women, infants can full their water caps and that they can pray for the continuity of regality. In the consensus of Istanbul given by the 5.th World Water Forum was a reflection from an event held centuries ago. The contribution of Kanuni is an event that still should enlight todays modern approaches toward the use of water. “Access to good quality water and sanitation is a basic right for all human beings and plays an essential role in life and livelihoods, the preservation of the health of the population and the fight against poverty.” Keywords: Water; Kanuni; Water supply systems. 1. Introduction 1.1. Water Is Life Water is the source of life. But today everyone knows that this vital element is being consumed up more and more every day because of misusing by humanity. This reality is becoming a global crise. Climate change, ecosystem degradation, the food crises, enegy crisis, economic crisis all increase the problems more difficult. Thus our children will inherit a global problem. For saving our planet needs global solutions. Water is ever increasingly becoming the single most precious and essential item that sustains life in this world, enabling all human need for life and the development of civilizations. For that reason, the first civilizations in history appeared in regions which are rich in terms of water such as Mesopotamia in Anatolia, and the river Nile in Africa... and established the grounds of agriculture, trade and science. The vital importance of water is the same degree from the ancient times to today. In many cultures water is considered to be one of the four elements, along with fire, air and soil. In Ottoman culture these were known as anasır-ı erbaa. A verse from the Qur’an, which is frequently inscribed on fountains, “We made from water every living thing” (Anbiyaa, 21/30) In a hadith Prophet Muhammad was asked which form of charity he approved of and the answer he gave was “water.” This and similiar hadiths encourage Muslims to provide water, to offer it and to help in the 355 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo constructions of water structures. Water is not only important in belief and religion, but also it is important for the formation and the development of cities and civilizations. 1.2. The Definition of Sustainable Development Sustainable development has been defined in many ways, but the most frequently quoted definition is from Our Common Future, also known as the Brundtland Report. "Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It contains within it two key concepts: • the concept of needs, in particular the essential needs of the world's poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and • the idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment's ability to meet present and future needs." All definitions of sustainable development require that we see the world as a system—a system that connects space; and a system that connects time. When we think of the world as a system over space, we grow to understand that air pollution from North America affects air quality in Asia, and that pesticides sprayed in Argentina could harm fish stocks off the coast of Australia.And when we think of the world as a system over time, we start to realize that the decisions our grandparents made about how to farm the land continue to affect agricultural practice today; and the economic policies we endorse today will have an impact on urban poverty when our children are adults. We also understand that quality of life is a system, too. It's good to be physically healthy, but what if we are poor and don't have access to education? It's good to have a secure income, but what if the air in our region is unclean? And it's good to have freedom of religious expression, but what if we can't feed our family? The concept of sustainable development is rooted in these sort of systems of thinking. It helps us to understand ourselves and our world. The problems we face are complex and serious. “Water has always played a key role in economic development, and economic development has always been accompanied by water development. Investment in water management has been repaid through livelihood security and reductions in health risks, vulnerability and ultimately poverty.Water contributes to poverty alleviation in many ways – through sanitation services, water supply, affordable food and enhanced resilience of poor communities faced with disease,climate shocks and environmental degradation. Water of the right quality can improve health through beter sanitation and hygiene and, when applied at the right time, can enhance the productivity of land, labour and other productive inputs. In addition, healthy freshwater ecosystems provide multiple goods and services essential to life and livelihoods.” Water plays an important role on the imporovement of human health, productivity of the land, and the economic development as long as it is used at the right time and place. All of these improvements are closely related to the infrastructure of the water. According to the socio-economic analyses, the stock of infrastructure (water supply, sanitation, dams, reservoirs and storage, electricity, and hydropower…) which a country owns is closely linked to its socio-economic development, and as a result these infrastructures are vital for a country’s development. 2. Water Scarcity from Past to Future 2.1. An Example from XVI. Century in Đstanbul The increase in demand for water depend on population growth.The population of Istanbul in the reign of Sultan Süleyman the Magnificent reached 150000-175000.The lack of water that this led to caused great problems. The increasing population and welfare by time, the consumption of water has increased during the time. The water supply systems were not sufficient for Istanbul. The dimension of this scarcity was mentioned by Selaniki. One bottle of water was 15 akçe. Those days, a worker’s daily wage was 6 akçe. A skillled worker’s daily wage was 12 akçe.( In 1544 (Irgad) worker: 5,47 akçe; 1555’de (neccar) carpenter: 10,46 akçe, in qualified kategory that worker stonemason (taşçı): 11,46 akçe, again qualified worker that sewerman (lağımcı):11,20 akçe daily payment had taken.In 1555 for one okka soup was paid 6,3 akçe by Palace.At the same time for one okka nail was paid approximately 5 akçe.) Due to these problems ; in 1554 Süleyman the Magnificient ordered his architect Sinan to supply water to the Đstanbul from the forests located on the north of the city. The grand vizier of Sultan, opposed this huge project because of its cost. The grand vizier notified that if the water comes to the city in large amounts; the Đstanbul would became to an attractive position for people from many nations and occupations.This would cause the increase in the population of the city coming aside with many other problems. During the period of Sultan people had encountred many problems but mentioned that next generation would 356 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo suffer more. Selanikî additionally mentions the problems that will be faced in 30 years time. In 1567 the settlement and immigration was prohibited to Đstanbul. The Kırkçeşme Waters, completed in 1563, but happened in a great floods of the same year and rapid repaired were carried out, being completed in 1564. In total this consruction costed 50 million akçe. This system first started providing services there were 135 fountains; later there were 300 and then 580 fountains. In time the system with 4 dams, 570 additions was expanded. According to the waqf registers it provided 334 lüle(Lüle: One of the units measurement of water. When the diameter of the pipe was 26 mm the amount of water it provided in one day was called a lüle (52 m3/day)) (17.423m3) The population of Istanbul at that time was around 170.000. Thus that this system provided 100 liters of water per person. Süleyman the Magnificient has endowed 5 villages and a town for the finance of this big investment. Kanuni mentioned that his will is “fountains should be built to every district. To the high places that, the construction of fountain is impossible the fresh water well should be placed. By that the old people, poor women, infants can full their water caps and that they can pray for the continuity of regality. In those days The grand vizier of Sultan showed that the reality of key concept of sustainable development. The next generations would be faced many problems. Because of population growth, people again lived the scarcity of water. Not only that scarcity but also social and environmental problems would be appeared. 3. Today’s Issues 3.1. Locally The water resources in Istanbul, which has very crowded population and continual enlarging city turned out to be insufficent for meeting the water demand. Expansion of modern urbanization and the consequent construction movement yielded the need for supplying pressured water to the city. The water in Terkos Lake was transferred to the city through apump with the priorities given the Dersaadet Inc. Water Company during the rule of Sultan Abdülaziz. This development and change have continued with the establisment of Istanbul Water Administration in 1933. In 1981 ISKI (Water and Canalization Administration) formed an incorporated company connected to Istanbul Metropolitan Council. Thus, the period of modern work including the bringing and distrubition of water as well as the managing waste water and purification of drinking water reservoirs began. Today ISKI is providing water and disposing waste water in an environment-safely way upon water treatment for over 12 million people living in Istanbul with around an annual budget of 3 billion 239 million L and around eight thousand staff. Water problems show region specific. However there are several common solitions. In our country which is developing country, the water resources must be developed in an efficient way that optimizes water’s benefits- more crop per drop-,while minimizing negative environmental impacts. The availability of water per capita per year in Turkey is only about one fifth of that of the water rich countries. It is therefore necesary that Turkey should improve per capita water availability in order to enhance the quality of life of her people.Therefore, in recent decades Turkey has made great success in water resources development for domestic use, irrigation, power generation, flood control, and other purposes. We are living in a global village. Because of this reality we have many problems too. 3.2. The Global Problem The world is facing changes at a faster rate than ever seen before. These changes such as population growth, migration, urbanization, land-use changes and climate variability/change will drive the way in which water resources need to be managed in the future. They also call for concrete contributions from water policies and actions to help the world cope with these changes. While climate change has been the most talked about topic, other changes taking place will likely affect water resources and services and their management to a much greater degree. The population of the planet is estimated to increase by 50%, meaning 3 billion additional inhabitants, by 2050. More than half of the world's population now lives in cities, and this increasing urbanization is set to continue. Population will continue to increase as will rural-urban migration, adding difficulty to reach the agreed Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) on access to water and sanitation and increasing pollution at the same time. The demand and probably prices of natural resources and energy will increase as the planet's inhabitants grow in number and consumption increases. Humans are altering global systems at a rate not previously experienced. These drivers, and the constraints that limit the ability to adapt to them, affect the developed and developing world in different ways. 357 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 3. Water is a Key to Sustainable Development An adequate and dependable source of water is needed to sustain humanity and to support development and growth. Investment in water management has been repaid through increased livelihood security and reductions in health risks, vulnerability and ultimately poverty. Poverty reduction is closely linked to enhanced access to water. Where economic growth has been strong and prosperity has been fairly equitably distributed, poor individuals and households have been able to reach the targets of the Millennium Development Goals. Conversely, where governments are unable or unwilling to deliver the basic services, water emerges among the most pressing issues. All over the world living experience shows that access to water is fundamental for economic growth and livelihoods.In rural and agriculturel-based economies water is often the most important factor for agricultural production and other livelihood activities. In urbanbased, labour-intensive manufacturing economies water is needed for nearly all productive activities. Secure access to water with reliable storage and irrigation has boosted economic growth in many of the developed economies of the Americas and Europe, and through the green revolution in Asia has enabled the transformation of agriculture-based economies to industrial and emerging market economies. Past efforts of development and water use have often ignored the water needs of life on Earth and have placed at risk the resources on which life depends The links connecting water resources, the environment and economic sectors are complex. As a result, our understanding of all the ways that natural processes influence human well-being remains incomplete, impeding our ability to ensure sustainable economic and social development. Water infrastructure supports growth and poverty reduction and should be planned by taking the possible impacts into account The principal drivers of growth and change have often come from outside the domain of water managers. Water development has largely responded to and been affected by developments in the wider political economy, such as market-oriented reforms, openness to global trading systems and advances, supply chains and regional production networks. Storage, irrigation, urban water supply and wastewater have all been part of the enabling infrastructure. These have been led by public policies and microeconomic developments (productivity changes, capital and input accumulation, and technology). In some cases infrastructure development has been promoted by specific sectors in the economy that directly benefit from them, while the costs are usually borne by society at large. Actions that target rural economies will benefit the largest number of people. As of 2007, 3 billion people live in rural areas, most of them dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Agricultural economies are especially vulnerable to lack of water during critical crop-growing seasons. Their performance is influenced by the ability to secure and control water through infrastructure, such as water harvesting storage, reservoirs and canals, and the ability to transport it to crops when required. Investments in physical infrastructure must be accompanied by investments in ‘soft’ infrastructure, the dense network of institutions and human capacity needed to secure spaces in which individuals, households, firms and communities are able to pursue their day-today activities with a reasonable degree of predictability and stability and with due regard for the interests of others. Investments are also required for the operation and maintenance of physical infrastructure literature. Water contributes to poverty alleviation in many ways – through sanitation services, water supply, affordable food and enhanced resilience of poor communities to disease, climate shocks and environmental degradation. Water of appropriate quantity and quality can improve health and, when applied at the right time, can enhance the productivity of land, labour and other inputs. The daily water supply for multiple household uses is determined by the time, labour and financial costs required to access water. The economic and social returns from water access for different uses determine net livelihood benefits or losses. 4. Conclusion In Đstanbul, on 16 March 2009, Heads of States on Water is decelerate at the end of 5th World Water Forum. “We, the Heads of States, Governments and International Organizations, gathered in Istanbul on 16 March 2009 on the occasion of the, under the theme "Bridging Divides for Water", appeal to all national governments, international organizations and other stakeholders to generate a common vision and framework to develop and manage water resources in a sustainable manner and to guarantee access to safe water and sanitation for all… Many decisions taken at all levels of government both influence and depend significantly on water. Yet this connection is rarely recognized and much less acted upon. Therefore, we urgently need new policies, adaptation strategies, institutional reforms with the effective contribution of local elected administrations and water users, international commitments, financial mechanisms, technology and innovation in order to address global water issues and adapt water management strategies to the global changes. We affirm our political will to take rapid action bearing in mind the key elements of success: Solidarity, security, adaptability and useful dialogue and cooperation on transboundary waters between neighbours. Working together with a participatory, inter-sectoral and multi-disciplinary approach to manage 358 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo water resources, the world can and will attain greater prosperity and increased stability through the sharing of the many benefits of water. To achieve this, we call on all nations to join efforts in order to develop a global framework for addressing the world’s water issues and to implement tools that will help us accomplish solidarity, security and adaptability. We, the Heads of States, Governments and International Organizations gathered in Istanbul, pledge to create a more sustainable and water safe world in the 21st Century and, in this context, appeal to everyone to join us in meeting this challenge.” References 1. World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) (1987). Our common future. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 5th World Water Forum Ministerial Process Istanbul Water Guide Ahmet Murat Özel, The Culture of Water and Fountains, Đstanbul, ĐSKĐ, 2009, s. 8-13. Ahmet Murat Özel, The Management Of Water In Đstanbul -From The Past To The Present, Istanbul, 2009, p. 48. Ahmet Refik, 1935, s.139. Ahmet Tabakoğlu, Türk Đktisat Tarihi, 2.nd Edition, Đstanbul 1994, p.152.. GWP Technical Committee 2003 Hussain and Hanjra 2003 Lipton, Litchfield, and faurès 2003 Istanbul &Water, ISKI publication, Istanbul Selâniki Mustafa Efendi, Tarih-i Selânikî , (haz) Mehmet Đpşirli, Đstanbul: Edebiyat Fakültesi Basımevi, 1989, p.3; Şevket Pamuk, Đstanbul ve Diğer Kentlerde 500 yıllık Fiyatlar ve Ücretler 1469–1998, Ankara: T.C. Başbakanlık DĐE. Yay. 2000, p. 142, 192. UNDP 2006, cited in World Water Development Report 3 Chapter 6. UNIDO 2007, cited in World Water Development Report 3 Chapter 6. United Nations 2008 cited in Worl Water Development Report 3 Chapter 6. Veysel Eroğlu, “Foreword”, Turkey Water Report 2009, Ankara, 2009, p.1-2. What is Sustainable Development? Environmental, economic and social well-being for today and tomorrow. http://www.iisd.org/sd/ World Bank 2007, cited in World Water Development Report 3 Chapter 6. World Water development report 3 Chapter 6. 359 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 254 Title A name given to the resource Water for Sustainable Development: Example from Past to Future Author Author SENSOY, Fatma Abstract A summary of the resource. Freshwater is not only a finite resource that is imperative for sustainable development but also economic growth, political and social stability, human and ecosystem health, and poverty eradication. While water issues have long been on the international agenda, the debate on how to meet the growing global demand for freshwater has intensified in recent years: over 800 million people currently lack access to safe drinking water, while about 2.5 billion lack access to adequate sanitation. In response to these challenges, the World Water Forum was initiated as a platform to include water issues on the international agenda. The WWC, an international policy think-tank established in 1996, addresses global concerns over the pressures on the Earth’s freshwater resources. Besides todays global water issues,the historical example given below is a way to enlight our future by the means os usage and management of the water suplies. In XVI. Century in Istanbul there was a strong scarcity on water. The increasing population and welfare by time, the consumption of water has increased during the time. The water supply systems were not sufficient for Istanbul. The dimension of this scarcity was mentioned by Selaniki. One bottle of water was 15 akçe. Those days, a worker’s daily wage was 6 akçe. A skillled worker’s daily wage was 12 akçe. Due to these problems ; in 1554 Suleiman the Magnificient ordered his architect Sinan to supply water to the Đstanbul from the forests located on the north of the city. The grand vizier of Sultan, opposed this huge project because of its cost. The grand vizier notified that if the water comes to the city in large amounts; the Đstanbul would became to an attractive position for people from many nations and occupations.This would cause the increase in the population of the city coming aside with many other problems. Kanuni has endowed 5 villages and a town for the finance of this big investment. Kanuni mentioned that his will is “fountains should be built to every district. To the high places that, the consturction of fountain is impossible the fresh water well should be placed. By that the old people, poor women, infants can full their water caps and that they can pray for the continuity of regality. In the consensus of Istanbul given by the 5.th World Water Forum was a reflection from an event held centuries ago. The contribution of Kanuni is an event that still should enlight todays modern approaches toward the use of water. “Access to good quality water and sanitation is a basic right for all human beings and plays an essential role in life and livelihoods, the preservation of the health of the population and the fight against poverty.” Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8007c40a88b8dad51fe2603435c0503d.pdf 8778dd842454fafdef97f9fa707fc7e2 PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Reengineering: Necessary Aspect of Sustainability for Organizational Development Şermin ŞENTURAN Dr., Professor at International University of Sarajevo Faculty of Economics and Business Administration (FEBA) Bosnia and Herzegovina ssenturan@ius.edu.ba Samir HUSĐĆ MA, Postgraduate Student at International University of Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina samirhusic@gmail.com Abstract: Most of the managers believe that they have had all the debates they need to have and that the industry will continue to exist as it has for many years. But the industry is continuously deregulated, and the business must be reconfigured in this deregulated environment? There is always a fear of unknown but organizations must evaluate their needs for changing fundamentals of the business. Companies, even those with cultures receptive to process innovation, should not expect to achieve major change without making major commitments. Successful reengineering process relies on a wide range of skills. To effect needed change, organizations must somehow mobilize sufficient technological, human and organizational, political, and process expertise with the requisite enablers. This necessarily involves assigning some of their best people, or, if the firm lacks the needed skills or methods internally, employing external consultants, to design and implement new processes. Business orientation that combines process improvement and process innovation efforts is unique and uniquely relevant to current business management. It is in keeping with cultural leanings toward innovation and incorporates the rigor and measurement orientation found in the quality approaches of many successful firms. Keywords: reengineering, bosnia, process reengineering, revolution, innovation Introduction Many managers, especially those in relatively successful businesses, naturally tend to keep using the same old process and technology. They believe that they have had all the debates they need to have and that the industry will continue to exist as it has for many years. But what will they do, for instance, if they suddenly find out that their business is potentially unsustainable, and the business must be reconfigured to maintain the economic development? Perhaps these managers have been around the old industry simply too long to be able or willing to imagine that new configuration. Sustainable development expect from business leaders to use resources with aims to meet human needs while preserving the environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present, but also for future generations. United Nations’ “Agenda 21” emphasizes the need to change from old sector-centered ways of doing business to new approaches that involve cross-sectoral co-ordination and the integration of environmental and social concerns into all development processes (Agenda 21, 1992). This is where reengineering the business comes in, changing the fundamentals of the business. A truly reengineered business finds out how to do more with less. But there is a fear of the unknown and its potential threats, its inevitable risks. Some managers are prevented from seeing the future because they are blinded by the sun of their current success and they cannot see the wall that they are driving right into. Also, many people suffer from a kind of subliminal denial of the future because to face it would be too traumatic (Champy, 2006, pp. xixii). They are unable to implement personal responsibility and to develop mechanisms to protect the environment. Companies, even those with cultures receptive to process innovation, should not expect to achieve major change without making major commitments. Successful reengineering process relies on a wide range of skills. To effect needed change, organizations must somehow mobilize sufficient technological, human and organizational, political, and process expertise with the requisite enablers. This necessarily involves assigning some of their best people, or, if the firm lacks the needed skills or methods internally, employing external 236 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo consultants, to design and implement new processes. Absence of skills is as much a reason for caution as an unreceptive culture. Consequently, process innovation must itself be viewed as a process, not a project. If initial efforts are successful, companies will move on to redesign other processes, a prospect that stretches to decades. Absence of such long-term orientation is often decried in contemporary business; process innovation is one more reason it cannot continue (Davenport, 1993). This work will comparatively explore these basic issues and approaches of most influential researchers in field of business process reengineering, with specific focus on controversial issues and failures in this process. History In 1990, Michael Hammer, a former professor of computer science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), published an article in the Harvard Business Review, in which he claimed that the major challenge for managers is to obliterate non-value adding work, rather than using technology for automating it (Hammer, 1990). This statement implicitly accused managers of using information technology for automating existing processes rather than using it as an enabler for making non-value adding work obsolete. A similar idea was advocated by Thomas H. Davenport and J. Short in 1990 (Davenport, 1990), the same year as Hammer published his paper. This idea, to unbiased review a company’s business processes, was rapidly adopted by a huge number of firms, which were striving for renewed competitiveness, which they had lost due to the market entrance of foreign competitors, their inability to satisfy customer needs, and their insufficient cost structure. Even well established management thinkers, such as Peter Drucker and Tom Peters, were accepting and advocating business process reengineering (BPR) as a new tool for re-achieving success in a dynamic world. During the following years, a fast growing number of publications, books as well as journal articles, was dedicated to BPR, and many consulting firms embarked on this trend and developed BPR methods. Despite critiques, reengineering was adopted at an accelerating pace and by 1993, as many as 65% of the Fortune 500 companies claimed to either have initiated reengineering efforts, or to have plans to do so. This trend was fueled by the fast adoption of BPR by the consulting industry, but also by the study Made in America, conducted by MIT, that showed how companies in many US industries had lagged behind their foreign counterparts in terms of competitiveness, time-to-market and productivity (Industry Week, 1994). Definitions Different definitions of business process reengineering can be found. We will focus here on most influential ones. "... The fundamental rethinking and radical redesign of business processes to achieve dramatic improvements in critical contemporary measures of performance, such as cost, quality, service, and speed." (Hammer M. a., 1993) Reengineering "encompasses the envisioning of new work strategies, the actual process design activity, and the implementation of the change in all its complex technological, human, and organizational dimensions."(Davenport, 1990). Additionally, Davenport points out the major difference between BPR and other approaches to organization development (OD), especially the continuous improvement or TQM movement, when he states: "Today firms must seek not fractional, but multiplicative levels of improvement – 10x rather than 10%." Finally, Johansson provide a description of BPR relative to other process-oriented views, such as Total Quality Management (TQM) and Just-in-time (JIT), and state: "Business Process Reengineering, although a close relative, seeks radical rather than merely continuous improvement. It escalates the efforts of JIT and TQM to make process orientation a strategic tool and a core competence of the organization. BPR concentrates on core business processes, and uses the specific techniques within the JIT and TQM ”toolboxes” as enablers, while broadening the process vision." (Johansson, 1993). In order to achieve the major improvements BPR is seeking for, the change of structural organizational variables, and other ways of managing and performing work is often considered as being insufficient. For being able to reap the achievable benefits fully, the use of information technology (IT) is conceived as a major contributing factor. While IT traditionally has been used for supporting the existing business functions, it now plays a role as enabler of new organizational forms, and patterns of collaboration within and between organizations. Business strategy is the primary driver of BPR initiatives and the other dimensions are governed by strategy's encompassing role. The organization dimension reflects the structural elements of the company, such as hierarchical levels, the composition of organizational units, and the distribution of work between them. Technology is concerned with the use of computer systems and other forms of communication technology in the business. In BPR, information technology is generally considered as playing a role as enabler of new forms of 237 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo organizing and collaborating, rather than supporting existing business functions. The people / human resources dimension deals with aspects such as education, training, motivation and reward systems. The concept of business processes - interrelated activities aiming at creating a value added output to a customer - is the basic underlying idea of BPR. These processes are characterized by a number of attributes: Process ownership, customer focus, value adding, and cross-functionality. (Business process reengineering, 2000). Methodology Although the labels and steps differ slightly, the early methodologies that were rooted in IT-centric BPR solutions share many of the same basic principles and elements. The following outline is one such model, based on the Process Reengineering Life Cycle (Guha, 1993). 1. Envision new processes 1. Secure management support 2. Identify reengineering opportunities 3. Identify enabling technologies 4. Align with corporate strategy 2. Initiating change 1. Set up reengineering team 2. Outline performance goals 3. Process diagnosis 1. Describe existing processes 2. Uncover pathologies in existing processes 4. Process redesign 1. Develop alternative process scenarios 2. Develop new process design 3. Design HR architecture 4. Select IT platform 5. Develop overall blueprint and gather feedback 5. Reconstruction 1. Develop/install IT solution 2. Establish process changes 6. Process monitoring 1. Performance measurement, including time, quality, cost, IT performance 2. Link to continuous improvement -> Loop-back to diagnosis One critical issue is: Who will lead the reengineering process? Experience shows that most professionals and managers are not completely qualified to lead and implement revolutionary process redesign. The MIS professional typically has too little training in process design and analysis and is likely to see things from the perspective of technology, not of added value to the customer. Senior executive leadership and guidance are essential to reengineering efforts, but who will actually devise and implement revolutionary process designs? Most companies have little or no experience envisioning and putting into practice radical changes in how they work. Operating managers, for example, know how to execute and control existing processes, not explode them. Most have never been encouraged to "think out of the box." Manufacturing and process engineers are trained to improve processes, not to abandon them and start over. Everyone involved will require extensive training and development. Some prediction for the distant future is that CIO will stand for Chief Innovation Officer, the catalyst of reengineering. (Miller, 1991) The Role of Information Technology Information technology (IT) was in the past an essential part of the reengineering concept. It is considered by some as a foremost enabler for new forms of functioning and collaborating within an organization and across organizational borders. Early BPR literature identified several so called disruptive technologies that were supposed to challenge traditional wisdom about how work should be performed. (Hammer M. a., 1993) • Shared databases, making information available at many places • Expert systems, allowing generalists to perform specialist tasks • Telecommunication networks, allowing organizations to be centralized and decentralized at the same time • Decision-support tools, allowing decision-making to be a part of everybody's job 238 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo • Wireless data communication and portable computers, allowing field personnel to work office independent • Interactive videodisk, to get in immediate contact with potential buyers • Automatic identification and tracking, allowing things to tell where they are, instead of requiring to be found • High performance computing, allowing on-the-fly planning and revisioning In the mid 1990s, especially workflow management systems were considered as a significant contributor to improved process efficiency. Also ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) vendors, such as SAP, JD Edwards, Oracle, PeopleSoft, positioned their solutions as vehicles for business process redesign and improvement. (Business process reengineering, 2000) High-Tech Forces of Reengineering Regarding high-tech forces used in change process, the most interesting view of what is likely to be part of our lives as we make our individual and corporate ways through the twenty-first century. Most researchers agree on one overall key point that has been at times somewhat controversial, that is, that science and technology will continue to have enormous impacts on all of us and these impacts, in the main, are almost always positive. To the extent that there are negative consequences, we tend to recognize that, and wish to mitigate such consequences. However, it is also clear that we are determined to try to minimize these potential negatives through systematic programs and year-by-year expenditures of money. What we are not prepared to do is to give up the benefits of the technological advances. It is fair to assume that this attitude will prevail in the twenty-first century as well. There are five high-tech forces that make reengineering necessary and applicable today (Eisner, 2000, pp. 43-48): 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The information age. It is a fact that the twenty-first century will represent the complete blossoming of the information age. Those with the right information, and the ability to do something constructive with it, will handle the power and increase the wealth. Information will allow enterprises to do what they do even better, and also to create completely new enterprises, in terms of both products and services. Increased bandwidth and reduced cost characterize the information age, and even information have a hierarchical structure as knowledge engineering and management threaten to become a form of just plain information. Speed and responsiveness. This is in a very real sense a necessary companion to the information age. As we build the infrastructure and capabilities that will be part of the information age, increased bandwidth will allow increased speed. The demand for this speed will follow on the heels of the technology push, meaning that people and businesses will wish to pay real money for the speed and responsiveness that such a capability is able to provide. As information finds it way to the right people more quickly, there will be pressure for the executives in business to speed up their operations in order to provide what their customers want in a more responsive manner, and make their decisions more quickly, which will be supported by having the right information available at the right time. Competition. The fact that people and companies will have and utilize the capability to move with increasing speed in the marketplace leads to extremely strong competition. If every business, in effect, sees more powerful competition coming globally, out of necessity this will have a most profound effect on the business itself. All companies that rely on information must be working as hard as they know how to make sure they remain at the leading edge. All these new enterprises, in the aggregate, pose a threat to the established companies in that a new very soon replaces the old one in a world in which market share can be reversed in very short periods of time. And these new companies heat up the competitive environment so that nothing is safe or sacred. New work patterns and environments. We are interested in new work patterns and environments, within individual’s migration path of the business enterprise of the twenty-first century. What type of work pattern and environment are we likely to find as we move into that future world and work our way through it? We can see at least three new work patterns emerging: Working highly irregular hours, often at home or at remote locations; working with new application that will bring fame and fortune; A confusion of plenty, that gives new ways of developing software as well as new ways to fail to integrate them. Loyalties and leverage. The world is changing and double-sided loyalties were shattered. Top management, not in the habit of firing themselves, looked around for ways to cut costs as profits were eroding or negative. The answer became a national pastime in which the euphemism was “right-sizing”. After all, the layoffs proved how responsible and effective the executives were. Loyalties were seriously 239 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo eroding. Trust was dissipating and disappearing. If the workers were ultimately only pawns in the game, then constant movement for the best deal was to be a kind of response. Mandates or edicts issued by upper management that predetermine the technical approach or schedule, cost, and performance considerations without sufficient project team input or concurrence are frequently seen to cause reengineering failure. More often project schedules, costs, and deliverables are dictated by top management decisions. Software is a difficult business, and especially where one is dealing with legacy systems that may have poorly developed components and poor documentation. While top management does need to make decisions on the allocation of scarce resources, it is tempting for them to also determine specific deliverables and timetables. However, detailed planning of schedules and milestones can only be accurately determined through careful study of the technical parameters of a system, based on an understanding of the system, historical data, and knowledge of the specific skills of the staff. When top management prescribes these details with little data, the results are usually disastrous. (Bergey, 1999, p. 24) Why Reengineering Fails Inspired with contemporary management trends, many companies tried to make themselves a significantly better competitor. All of them tried to make a fundamental change in how their business is conducted, and many of them tried to apply reengineering, so they can cope with more challenging market surroundings. However, many of them either failed, either have been in between, or in most cases obvious lack of success were distressing. The media usually point out the high rate of failure to three factors: the resistance of employees to change, inadequate leadership by senior management, and unrealistic expectations about reengineering results. (Kiely, 1995) Many lessons have been learned through analysis of these failures. Some very general reasons could be drawn, and one is disrespect of process phases. Process phases are usually involving a considerable length of time, and skipping some phases makes only illusion of speed and never produces rewarding result. Following are some specific reasons why reengineering fails (Kotter, 1995): 1) Not Establishing a Great Enough Sense of Urgency. The first step in reacting to revenue drop or declining trends in company is very important, because its success directly depends on motivation of individuals or groups who are crucial wheels of change. Although it sounds easy comparing with further steps in process, most companies fail in this phase. Sometimes executives underestimate how hard it can be to drive people out of their comfort zone, or they lack patience, or they worry that employees will be defensive, or that morale will drop, or they fear to be blamed for creating a crisis. To be successful in this phase, urgency rate must be very high, and it must be established in most of company’s management. Some executives created a crisis, by making large accounting loss or going public with terrible results, so the sense of urgency becomes higher. However, although sometimes crisis atmosphere promotes reengineering success, experts believe that crisis create fear and panic which drives out optimism. (Kiely, 1995, p. 15) 2) Not Creating a Powerful Enough Guiding Coalition. Major renewal programs often start with just one or two people. In cases of successful transformation efforts, the leadership coalition grows and grows over time. Major change is impossible unless the head of the organization is an active supporter. In the most successful cases, the coalition is always pretty powerful- in terms of titles, information and expertise, reputations and relationships. Sometimes they expect the team to be led by a staff executive from human resources, quality, or strategic planning instead of a key line manager. No matter how capable or dedicated the staff head, groups without strong line leadership never achieve the power that is required. One deep research of 30 companies reengineering process show that first precondition for failure was allowing wrong manager to sponsor the project. (Kiely, 1995, p. 15) But whenever some minimum mass is not achieved early in the effort, nothing much worthwhile happens. Companies that fail in phase two usually underestimate the difficulties of producing change and thus the importance of a powerful guiding coalition. Sooner or later, the opposition gathers itself together and stops the change. 3) Lacking a Vision. In successful transformation effort, the guiding coalition must develop a picture of the future that is relatively easy to communicate and appeals to customers, stockholders, and employees. A vision always goes beyond the numbers that are typically found in five-year plans. A vision says something that helps clarify the direction in which an organization needs to move. Without a sensible vision, a transformation effort can easily dissolve into a list of confusing and incompatible projects that can take the organization in the wrong direction or nowhere at all. In failed transformations, you often find plenty of plans and directives and programs, but no vision. Not surprisingly, the employees in such cases are confused or alienated. A rule for sharing a vision: if you 240 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo can't communicate the vision to someone in five minutes or less, and get a reaction that signifies both understanding and interest, you are not yet done with this phase of the transformation process. 4) Undercommunicating the Vision by a Factor of Ten. Having used about .0001% of the yearly intracompany communication, the group is startled that few people seem to understand the new approach. Transformation is impossible unless vast majority of people are willing to help, often to the point of making short-term sacrifices. Employees will not make sacrifices unless they believe that useful change is possible. Without credible communication, and a lot of it, the hearts and minds of the troops are never captured. Executives who communicate well incorporate messages into their hour-byhour activities. They take ritualistic and tedious quarterly management meetings and turn them into exciting discussions of the transformation. 5) Not Removing Obstacles to the New Vision. Too often, an employee understands the new vision and wants to help make it happen. But an elephant appears to be blocking the path. In some cases, the elephant is in the person's head, and the challenge is to convince the individual that no external obstacle exists. But in most cases, the blockers are very real. The change effort ground to a halt because the officer in charge of the company's largest division was allowed to undermine most of the new initiatives. Perhaps worst of all are bosses who refuse to change and who make demands that are inconsistent with the overall effort. The other officers did virtually nothing to stop the one blocker. If the blocker is a person, it is important that he or she be treated fairly and in a way that is consistent with the new vision. 6) Not Systematically Planning For and Creating Short-Term Wins. Real transformation takes time, and a renewal effort risks losing momentum if there are no short-term goals to meet and celebrate. Without short-term wins, too many people give up or actively join the ranks of those people who have been resisting change. In a successful transformation, managers actively look for ways to obtain clear performance improvements, establish goals in the yearly planning system, achieve the objectives, and reward the people involved with recognition, promotions, and even money. 7) Declaring Victory Tab Soon. After a few years of hard work, managers may be tempted to declare victory with the first clear performance improvement. While celebrating a win is fine, declaring the war won can be catastrophic. Instead of declaring victory, leaders of successful efforts use the credibility afforded by short-term wins to tackle even bigger problems. They pay great attention to who is promoted, who is hired, and how people are developed. They include new reengineering projects that are even bigger in scope than the initial ones. They understand that renewal efforts take not months but years. 8) Not Anchoring Changes in the Corporation's Culture. Finally, change sticks when it becomes "the way we do things around here," when it seeps into the bloodstream of the corporate body. Two factors are particularly important in institutionalizing change in corporate culture. The first is a conscious attempt to show people how the new approaches, behaviors, and attitudes have helped improve performance. Helping people see the right connections requires communication. Time was spent at every major management meeting to discuss why performance was increasing. The second factor is taking sufficient time to make sure that the next generation of top management really does personify the new approach. One bad succession decision at the top of an organization can undermine a decade of hard work. The champion for change was the retiring executive, and although his successor was not a resistor, he was not a change champion. There are still more mistakes that people make, but these eight are the big ones. In reality, even successful change efforts are messy and full of surprises. But just as a relatively simple vision is needed to guide people through a major change, so a vision of the change process can reduce the error rate. And fewer errors can spell the difference between success and failure. (Kotter, 1995) Conclusion Reengineering is a new and desirable approach to transforming organizations and improving sustainable economic development requirements. The radical improvement of business process performance through the use of innovative tools and work designs has roots in the quality movement and other approaches to operational betterment of business activities. Although the quality movement has developed the notion of processes and process improvement to a high degree, its orientation is to incremental rather than radical change, and it does not address enablers of change. Business orientation that combines process improvement and process innovation efforts is unique and uniquely relevant to sustainable development. It is in keeping with cultural leanings toward innovation and incorporates the rigor and measurement orientation found in the quality approaches of many successful firms. But because improvement and innovation are quite different, it is important to know which is pursued in a particular instance. 241 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Reengineering, although difficult to achieve because of the radical nature of the organizational change involved, is a highly tempting approach to business transformation. It can be undertaken at relatively low cost, and the design, if not the implementation, of new processes can be completed in a matter of months. For these reasons, many firms in the developed countries in all industries, are embarking upon major process innovation initiatives. Reengineering is particularly challenging if the short-term sacrifices include job losses. Such consequences are sometimes not seen as proper way for achieving economic sustainability. Gaining understanding and support is tough when downsizing is a part of the vision. For this reason, successful visions usually include new growth possibilities and the commitment to treat fairly anyone who is laid off. The only constraint is that the actions fit within the broad parameters of the overall vision. The more people involved, the better the outcome. Reengineering is a particular way of using our minds, a way of radical experimentalism, of invention and reinvention, constantly checked by the realities of the bottom line. References Agenda 21 (1992). United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit), held in Rio de Janeiro on June 14, 1992. http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/documents/agenda21/english/agenda21toc.htm Bergey, J. S. (1999). Why Reengineering Projects Fail. Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute. Business process reengineering. (2000, http://www.adi.pt/docs/innoregio_BPR-en.pdf January). Retrieved December 14, 2008. ADI Business process trends. Retrieved December 14, 2008, from: http://www.bptrends.com/ Champy, J. (2006). Reengineering Management: The Mandate for New Leadership. Collins Business. Davenport, T. &. (1990, Summer). The New Industrial Engineering: Information Technology and Business Process Redesign. Sloan Management Review , pp 11-27. Davenport, Thomas H. (1993). Process Innovation : Reengineering Work Through Information Technology. Harvard Business School Press. Hammer, M. (1990, Jul/Aug). Reengineering Work: Don’t automate, obliterate. Harvard Business Review , pp 104-112. Hammer, M., & Champy, J. (1993). Reengineering the Corporation: A Manifesto for Business Revolution. Industry Week (1994), De-engineering the corporation, Industry Week article, 4/18/94 Kiely, T. (1995). Managing change: why reengineering projects fail. Harvard Business Review , Vol. 73 (No.2). Kotter, J. P. (1995). Leading Change: Why Transformation Efforts Fail. Harvard Business Review , Vol. 73 (Issue 2). Merrifield, R., Calhoun, J., & Stevens, D. (2008). The Next Revolution in Productivity. Harvard Business Review , 74. Miller, J. G. (1991). Reengineering work: who will do it? Harvard Business Review , Vol. 69 ( Issue 1). Guha, S., Kettinger, W.J. & Teng, T.C. (1993). Business Process Reengineering: Building a Comprehensive Methodology. Information Systems Management, Summer 1993. Eisner, H. (2000). Reengineering yourself and your company: from engineer to manager to leader. Artech House, London. Johansson, Henry J. (1993). Business Process Reengineering: BreakPoint Strategies for Market Dominance. John Wiley & Sons. 242 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 207 Title A name given to the resource Reengineering: Necessary Aspect of Sustainability for Organizational Development Author Author SENTURAN, Sermin HUSiĆ, Samir Abstract A summary of the resource. Most of the managers believe that they have had all the debates they need to have and that the industry will continue to exist as it has for many years. But the industry is continuously deregulated, and the business must be reconfigured in this deregulated environment? There is always a fear of unknown but organizations must evaluate their needs for changing fundamentals of the business. Companies, even those with cultures receptive to process innovation, should not expect to achieve major change without making major commitments. Successful reengineering process relies on a wide range of skills. To effect needed change, organizations must somehow mobilize sufficient technological, human and organizational, political, and process expertise with the requisite enablers. This necessarily involves assigning some of their best people, or, if the firm lacks the needed skills or methods internally, employing external consultants, to design and implement new processes. Business orientation that combines process improvement and process innovation efforts is unique and uniquely relevant to current business management. It is in keeping with cultural leanings toward innovation and incorporates the rigor and measurement orientation found in the quality approaches of many successful firms. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c5badcc0941a85218c0c7b644c627af3.pdf 6134b520e3ea1392a5bf73006d10781a PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo How Outsourcing Can Help the Organizations for Capturing Sustainable Development? Şermin ŞENTURAN International University of Sarajevo Faculty of Economics and Business Administration (FEBA) Bosnia and Herzegovina ssenturan@ius.edu.ba Ramo PALALIĆ International University of Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina ramopal@gmail.com Abstract: Outsourcing in its essence is a very dynamic and diverse topic and there are many different outsourcing options. In this paper, we would try to discuss basics on outsourcing aimed for a client and an outsourcing provider. It is argued that outsourcing has its benefits and disadvantages. It is on a company to do due diligence of itself prior to undertake outsourcing process. However, statistical data shown that outsourcing is rapidly growing and it has more its benefits over downsides. As globalization spreading out in untouched areas of the world, outsourcing does so. In this article we try to give the definitions, types and benefits of outsourcing for the organizations in order to give a broad understanding of its effects on sustainable development. Key Words: outsourcing, contracting, core-components, globalization Introduction Globalization is rapidly linking the world’s major economies. Today’s standard of excellence is not just best in class, in fact, it is best in world. In this global economy every company must compete against customer choices coming from everywhere and anywhere. Barriers to the marketplace are dropping quickly, with new competitors just a mouse-click away from any customer. Core competencies are the crown jewels of a company and, therefore, should be carefully nurtured and developed. Companies can determine their future business directions based on the strengths of competencies. However, because generalized terms such as resource, asset, capability, and competence are not clearly explained in connection with competence theory, these posing difficulties in understanding many contemporary management concepts (Hafeez, K. YanBing Zhang Malak, N. 2002). The phenomenon of outsourcing has become a global issue in this modern world. Seems that is a new trend for some countries, but in fact it had started in early fifteen centuries. There are many books written on this topic. However, although authors suggest outsourcing as a future perspective following up newest technology, they also argue that there are downsides of outsourcing. They say that failures in outsourcing should be expected if proper analysis and preparation were not undertaken. Others argue that is better to in-source than outsource. Accordingly, this paper tends to discuss some current issues in outsourcing, its benefits, and disadvantages and how it helps the development of the organizations in terms of sustainability. Definitions of Outsourcing There can many definitions of outsourcing be derived although its essence is the same, so we would provide a few definitions that best describes in brief almost all parts of outsourcing process. Outsourcing at its simplest is when a company or individual delegate some of its specific tasks to another individual who is not their direct employee, or another company. The individual or the company receives monetary compensation in exchange for the services rendered. In other words, outsourcing takes place when a company has recruited another company or an individual to perform agreed business activities for them and that company or individual receive financial benefits (in most cases they get paid). This way, we can see that 243 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo outsourcing does not necessarily mean only situations where large corporations are involved. In fact, it can also apply to small companies and entrepreneurs who get some of their work done by people who are not their employees. Outsourcing is finding areas and responsibilities within an organization that are not core competencies and finding someone else to do the work for the company. It involves transferring or sharing management control and/or decision-making of a business function to an outside supplier, which involves a degree of twoway information exchange, coordination and trust between the outsourcer and its client. So, outsourcing is contracting with another company or person to do a particular function. Usually a function being outsourced is considered as non-core to the company’s business. Graphically these definitions can be summarized as Figure 2: Services COMPANY CLIENT OLA and SLA Monetary Compensation OUTSOURCING PROVIDER OLA – Organization Level Agreement SLA – Service Level Agreement Figure 2 - Definitions of outsourcing Types of Outsourcing The most common types of outsourcing being implemented are the following: BPO – business process outsourcing ITO – information technology outsourcing 1. In short, BPO refers to the process of hiring another company to handle business activities for a company. A formal definition of BPO is set out as “the delegation of one or more IT-intensive business processes to an external provider who, in turn, administrates and manages the selected processes based upon defined and measurable performance metrics (Havley J.K, B.M.Melby, 2007, pg.21). BPO encompasses call center outsourcing, human resources outsourcing (HRO), finance and accounting outsourcing, and claims processing outsourcing. When BPO is concerned we can say that the BPO has its own sub-business processes such as KPO – knowledge process outsourcing and BTO – business transformation outsourcing. KPO includes those activities that require greater skill, knowledge, education and expertise to handle. The current definition of KPO encompasses R&D, product development and legal e-discovery, as well as a number of other business functions. Similarly, BTO refers to the idea of having service providers contribute to the effort of transforming a business into a leaner, more dynamic, agile and flexible operation. 2. ITO focuses on IT-related activities, such as application management and application development, data center operations, or testing and quality assurance. As a remark, we must bear in our mind that any kind of outsourcing would not be successful without IT technology. Rather it is an integrated part of every BPO. Also, the outsourcing could be distinguished according to the region or area where outsourcing is being performed as On-shore/Near-shore and offshore outsourcing. On- shore or near-shore outsourcing is outsourcing within nearby region or the same country. Offshore outsourcing is outsourcing beyond a country borders. Traditionally, organizations have a home base of operations-a region or country, where they began and where their first customers are located. In going offshore, the company has the opportunity to change its business in two primary ways: its net costs and its net capabilities. Net costs refer to all of the aspects of its costs that might be impacted by the change, such as labor, support, technology, communications, infrastructure, legal, insurance, and taxes. The resulting cost differential can be positive (it can produce a lower net cost for the organization) or negative (it can produce a higher net cost). At the same time, offshoring will also affect the organization’s net capabilities. Capability means all of the operating characteristics of the business, including the volume of work that can be processed, its quality, speed, and flexibility It is known that among the cheapest labor in the world are labors in India and China so today most business are offshored to these countries. - 244 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Figure 3 – Outsourcing around the world (http://www.ulb.ac.be/ 15 December 2008) To note: since the outsourcing is in fact BPO, and all main functions are actually BPO functions, we will use it as outsourcing term in further discussion. So it is important to extent this discussion to BPO categories. BPO Categories Business processes that have come under close examination as potential candidates for outsourcing typically fall within one of seven categories: 1. Finance and accounting 2. Investment and asset management 3. Human resources 4. Procurement 5. Logistics 6. Real estate management 7. Miscellaneous (energy services, customer service, mailroom, food processing), [Halvey K. John, Melby M. Barbara, 2007, pg.134,] These categories have been established to facilitate the discussion of the general types of business processes that are the subject of consideration for outsourcing. Because in many cases a business process touches different areas within an organization, customers and vendors may categorize certain business processes under different headings depending on the organization’s internal structure. For example, in some companies, payroll is considered a human resource function, while in others it is considered a finance function. As the BPO market evolves, customers and vendors will undoubtedly identify more business processes than can and will be outsourced. The potential reach of BPO is evidenced by the scope of what is even now being considered for outsourcing. Business processes targeted for outsourcing are expanding beyond the traditional corporate support functions into the supply chain. Reasons for Outsourcing Over 90% of all companies around the world outsource certain business activities, whether it is HR benefits administration, payroll, technical support or many other services. Each of these areas is specialized and 245 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo resource intensive. Working with a knowledgeable vendor ensures that the tasks will be done well, and most importantly allows your organization to stay focused on its core business. For the past five years, vendors have been marketing BPO as an alternative to the typical IT outsourcing deal, encouraging customers to identify noncore processes that are inefficient, too costly, or difficult to manage. The entire process (except, in most cases, a high-level management position or positions) is then turned over to the vendor, who, in turn, typically agrees to productivity, customer satisfaction, and cost savings commitments. As the IT outsourcing marketplace becomes more standardized, BPO customers are looking for innovative ways to increase the efficiency and quality of an entire business process through value-added services, customer satisfaction, and, ideally, a direct, quantifiable impact on cost. Some of the key business drivers for customers considering BPO include: • Transferring the entire function (not just the IT component) to a qualified supplier • Enhancing/improving methodologies • Benefiting from industry knowledge or experience • Streamlining or standardizing processes across the organization • Sharing resources or technologies • Committing less up-front investment to new methodologies or technologies • Obtaining flexibility with respect to the roll-out of methodologies or technologies • Increasing productivity • Quantifying savings or benefits • Tracking customer satisfaction • Enhancing shareholder value Obviously, objectives for outsourcing one or more business processes will vary on a deal-to-deal basis. The objectives are typically shaped by management’s overarching goal in outsourcing (e.g., transition to new methodology or technology, reduction in costs or expenses). In addition, the Table 1 shows other benefits of outsourcing which best describe why a company tends to outsource its non-core business activities. Table1: It indicates what activities are reduced when a company is outsourcing its business activities Outsourcing Client Service Provider No need for a new infrastructure No extra staff needed Perceived needs Existing infrastructure Existing staff After a client describes their specific needs, a group of people, whose job it is to do those things, does them Already possesses necessary equipment Hires staff Trains and supports staff Fire people in case of not working out Track the learning curve No new equipment needed Does not hire new people Provides no support or training No need to fire people No need for learning for outsourced activities Better service quality No effort needed for extra project analysis and investment The client is guaranteed a certain quality level of service They see better results, in less time, with very little ongoing investment of time and effort The following figure summarizes already introduced reasons for outsourcing business competencies. 246 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Figure 4: Source (Corbett F. Michael, 2004, pg 31) Analysis, Preparation and Stages of Outsourcing Prior to outsource, a company needs to define its internal SWOT Analysis. It should determine points where sustainable advantage lies and could those weaknesses be eliminated if company find outsourcing vendor in order to follow and continue its competitiveness. This should be made at Business process and IT level. If the company perceives the following, it should go for outsourcing. Business concerns: • Perceived low availability of services • Perceived a low level of service quality (accessibility, turn-around time etc.) • No clear service reporting and service management • Roles & Responsibilities not clear. • Processes unclear, too slow, too many hand-offs • Slow and error-prone service introduction • Unsatisfactory support of remote sites & subsidiaries • No service culture • Cost allocation & charges unclear and cannot be influenced by business decisions, etc. IT concerns: • Unreasonable service level expectations from business • No cost & resource awareness • Large number of non-standard work requests • Overlarge project portfolio, paired with spaghetti development infrastructure • High-level of business applications • Inefficient-underutilized server platform, • Aging central technology platforms and complex networks • Large and diverse skill pool required to support infrastructure Similarly, a company should take into account its other internal constraints prior to outsource, namely: • Availability of Seed Money – a company needs to reduce cost, this requires efficiency gains, and efficiency gains require investment • Structural Inflexibility – company’s current business and application architecture may not allow for simple and low cost ICT changes • Time to Benefit – Most “quick-wins” have already been explored over recent years. Major initiatives have pay-backs seldom shorter than 24 – 36 months 247 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo • • • • Business vs. IT Projects – Most projects are invisible to the normal business users and do not directly contribute to business revenue generation Capacity and Know-How – Are there sufficient internal resources available to drive the change in a timely fashion? Will heavy external resource usage kill the business case? Change Capacity – Can the internal organization absorb this change now (ex. Overall moral, unions, etc.) Sustainability – Can initiatives be maintained in light of business development? Statistics Facts Since globalization took place, outsourcing has increased enormously. It is a fact that every year outsourcing getting its part in every business. Another factor that fosters its growth is rapid development of IT technologies. Outsourcing statistics show that the largest percentage of jobs being outsourced is in Information Technology, by around 28%. The next largest field is human resources taking 15% of the outsourcing market, followed closely by sales and marketing outsourcing with 14% and financial services outsourcing at 11%. The remaining 32% is made up of other different processes such as administrative outsourcing. (http://www.manpower.com, 12 December 2008) Figure 5 - Outsourcing statistics on IT, HRM, financial services, marketing and the rest of services Most of the outsourcing is done by multinational companies and the most popular destinations are India, China and the Philippines. Of course these figures slightly differ depending on the study and the point of view, but this division gives an idea of the outsourcing market. (http://www.manpower.com, 12 December 2008) Forrester Research estimates that 3.3 million U.S. jobs and $136 billion in wages could be moved to such countries as India, China, and Russia by 2015. (http://www.manpower.com, 12 December 2008) Nasscom, a lobby form for Indian software and service companies, has reported that India could earn $60 billion a year by 2010 from information technology and outsourcing. Most of the new business is expected to be outsourced by insurance, retail, banking and travel companies. (http://www.manpower.com, 12 December 2008) The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that the volume of offshore outsourcing will increase by 30 to 40 percent a year for the next 5 years. (http://www.manpower.com, 12 December 2008) According to an article in Business Week magazine, the most commonly outsourced functions in terms of global spending include the following (listed in order of global spending): 1. Logistics and procurement—$179 billion 2. Manufacturing—$170 billion 3. InfoTech—$90 billion 4. Customer care—$41 billion 5. Engineering—$27 billion 248 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 6. Finance & accounting—$14 billion 7. Human resources—$13 billion 8. Analytics—$14 billion (http://hosteddocs.toolbox.com/ceo-succession-management-consultants.pdf, 12 December 2008) Figure 6 – Commonly Outsourced Functions and Processes Problems and Barriers in Outsourcing Although outsourcing’s ability to create these benefits for companies and their customers and shareholders is well documented, challenges and problems do exist. These are highly complex, sophisticated relationships that require care in their planning, execution, and management. There are also a number of barriers inside the organization that must be brought down if outsourcing is to work well. For example, managers fear a loss of control. They often believe that although an activity may not be core, it may still be too critical to be outsourced. Also, they are concerned about losing flexibility by getting locked into a long-term contract with a service provider. In addition, managers are concerned about how their customers may react and they are concerned about employee, and especially union, reactions. Also, managers are worried, particularly when it comes to offshore outsourcing, about community and political reaction over lost jobs. Concerning problems and barriers, the following should not be neglected: • Longer for vendor to setup than expected • Outsourcing vendor unable to hire and train staff fast enough • Outsourcing vendor can't handle volume of activities • Unable to obtain and maintain telecommunications equipment • Different work ethics between organization and outsourcing vendor • Outsourcing vendor unable to perform on a timely basis • Outsourcing vendor unable to produce contractual results • Contract performance measures and penalties poorly written • Contract exit language inadequate • Failure to consider time necessary to major outsourcing vendor Conclusion No organization can stay competitive in today’s rapidly changing global economy by relying solely on its own resources. Outsourcing is a necessary response to today’s rapidly-competitive environment. In this environment, no organization can afford the level investment required to be best-in-world across its entire operation, yet none can afford to be anything less. Through outsourcing, organizations solve this dilemma by focusing their internal resources on the activities that provide them a unique competitive advantage. At the same time, each outsourcing transaction adds to the organization’s overall performance and competitiveness. It saves money, redirects resources to more valuable activities, achieves a more variable cost 249 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo structure, gains access to much needed skills, reduces the internal competition for capital, becomes faster and more responsive, and even increases its level of innovation. Managers and executives themselves are able to better focus their energies externally, on customers, as opposed to internally, on day-to-day operations. On the contrary, outsourcing has its barriers and problems such as loss of control, to critical to be outsourced, loss of flexibility, negative customer reaction, employee, lack o clarity in costs, lower service quality and similar. Therefore, we can conclude that if a company perceives such that functions are non-core and/or not a competitive niche, significant cost advantages from outsourcing, limited/no opportunity for learning transfer, skill competencies not available in organization, cost of monitoring/administering outsourcing partner is low, comparable or better service levels from outsourcing, the company should go for outsourcing. On the other hand if the company sees issues that are: critical to the business, no cost advantages from outsourcing, potential competitive advantages through knowledge transfer, skill capabilities readily available in organization, high cost of monitoring/administering outsourcing partner and service levels better within organization, the company should insource its business processes. Finally, concerning Bosnian business environment, we can fairly argue that this region lacks of many kinds of outsourcing (although there are some companies involved in outsourcing activities) and there should be a leveraging instrument or factor that could foster this new era business activity. Yet, outsourcing business activities would definitely boost the economy of Bosnia towards its prosperity and its faster integration into European Union. Outsourcing would be one of many steps to implement the country mission as a future EU member. References Burkholder Nicholas C. (2006), Outsourcing: The definitive View, Applications and Implications, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New Jersey Corbett F. Michael (2004) The Outsourcing Revolution: Why it makes sense and how to do it right, Dearborn Trade Publishing, US. Diaz-Mora, Carmen (2008), What factors determine the outsourcing intensity? A dynamic panel data approach for manufacturing industries’, Applied Economics,40:19,2509 — 2521 Erik B., Pieter R. and Jan R. (2006), Managing IT Outsourcing Governance in Global Partnerships, Rutledge USA Hafeez, K. YanBing Zhang Malak, N. (2002), Core competence for sustainable competitive advantage: a structured methodology for identifying core competence, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management Halvey K. John, Melby M. Barbara (2007), Business Process Outsourcing, second edition, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. http://hosteddocs.toolbox.com/ceo-succession-management-consultants.pdf (15 December 2008) http://www.manpower.com (15 December 2008) http://www.ulb.ac.be/ (15 December 2008) Jane C. Linder (2004), Outsourcing for Radical Change: A Bold Approach to Enterprise Transformation, AMACOM R. Marjit S. and Mukherjee A. (2008), Review of International Economics, 16(5), 1010–1022, DOI:10.1111/j.14679396.2008.00764.x (International Outsourcing and R&D: Long-Run Implications for Consumers)] McIvor (2005), the Outsourcing Process: Strategies for Evaluation and Management, Cambridge University Press, UK Rick L. Click Thomas N. Duening (2005), Business Process Outsourcing: The Competitive Advantage, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.Hoboken, New Jersey. Schendel D. (1996), Management Journal, Vol.17, Special Issue: Knowledge and the Firm, winter, 1-4 Sugata Marjit and Arijit Mukherjee. (2008), Review of International Economics, 16(5), 1010–1022, International Outsourcing and R&D: Long-Run Implications for Consumers 250 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 209 Title A name given to the resource How Outsourcing Can Help the Organizations for Capturing Sustainable Development? Author Author SENTURAN, Sermin PALALIĆ, Ramo Abstract A summary of the resource. Outsourcing in its essence is a very dynamic and diverse topic and there are many different outsourcing options. In this paper, we would try to discuss basics on outsourcing aimed for a client and an outsourcing provider. It is argued that outsourcing has its benefits and disadvantages. It is on a company to do due diligence of itself prior to undertake outsourcing process. However, statistical data shown that outsourcing is rapidly growing and it has more its benefits over downsides. As globalization spreading out in untouched areas of the world, outsourcing does so. In this article we try to give the definitions, types and benefits of outsourcing for the organizations in order to give a broad understanding of its effects on sustainable development. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/20897547874a1a59ee87e5cc1b37c6cc.pdf 4bd435449ab6e09b1ddcb0b1c17fb3ad PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Use of Hydroelectric Power in Sustainable Development of Turkey Ramazan SEVER Atatürk University, Turkey rsever@atauni.edu.tr Ünal ÖZDEMĐR Atatürk University, Turkey uozdemir@atauni.edu.tr Serhat ZAMAN Atatürk University, Turkey serhatz@atauni.edu.tr Mete ALIM Atatürk University, Turkey metealim@atauni.edu.tr Ogün COŞKUN Atatürk University, Turkey oguncoskun@atauni.edu.tr Abstract: Energy is a vital element of development. Clear, reliable, environmental friendly and sustainable energy is a prerequisite for the sustainable development. In recent years, it is known that fossil fuel resources are getting towards to finish and also they cause several environmental problems. Therefore, use of renewable energy sources are becoming a necessity. The hydroelectric power, also called green energy, is among the renewable energy sources although it has some disadvantages. Turkey, which is estimated that has 1% of the world and 16% of Europe total hydroelectric power, has initiated projects in order to benefit from these resources and some of them are completed and started to produce electricity. However, as it is the case for several countries nowadays, Turkey is having problems in producing required electricity. This energy necessity is partly overcome by importing petrol and natural gas. However, being dependent on outside energy resources carries important risks for economic and political development. Therefore, it appears that the best solution to the energy shortage is to maximize the use of renewable energy sources in sustainable ways. Currently, Turkey uses 34% (43 billion kwh) of the economic hydroelectric potential (125 billion kwh). Increasing this to 100% in the near future is quite important in terms of reaching planned development objectives. Keywords: Sustainable development, economic, energy, hydroelectric power. Introduction Increasing demand for energy which simultaneously rises with industrialization, population growth and urbanization gains significance each day. To meet energy demand, fossil fuels are commonly used. As of year 2007, the demand for global energy was obtained from 40,6% coal, 35,6% petroleum and 23,8% natural gas (www.enerji.gov.tr/2007). However, global reserves of the mentioned fossil resources are rather limited. Besides, greenhouse effect that emerges after their burning threatens ecosystems. Contrary to them, renewable energy sources such as sun, geothermal, hydroelectric, biogas, waves and wind are very economical in addition to their sustainable renew ability. Due to these reasons, it is necessary to gain attraction and universalize the use of new and renewable energy sources. Amongst the mentioned renewable energy sources, hydroelectric power-also known as green energy, takes the first place. Although there are 150 hydroelectric power plants in the country, it is noteworthy that this ratio represents merely 40% of global operable potential. As known, there is a detailed technology and experience field concerning dams and HPP (Hydroelectric Power Plant). Water, which is the raw material used in energy generation, has serious advantages for ecology since it is renewable and it continuously takes role in hydrological cycle rotation. Furthermore, it 185 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo has low operation cost and high economical life (Frey and Linke 2002, Yüksek and Kangal 2008:37-38). Therefore despite its minor disadvantages, it would be beneficial to actualize HPP projects in advance for the economical, ecological and strategic benefits of Turkey (Sever 2008:230). Since sustainable development is defined as meeting the demand for economical development needed by modern societies in a way not to hinder the needs of future groups (UNDP), renewable energy takes a step closer in that aspect because as known, conventional energy sources will not only be extinct in the future but their generation and consumption will seriously harm the environment (Altuntaşoğlu 2003:345). As is known, energy is a critical starting point in achieving the objectives related to social balance, economic growth and environmental protection which constitute three basic components of sustainable development. Accordingly, we need to reduce economical and ecological damages of energy consumption forced by sustainable development of society (Altuntaşoğlu 2003:346). Sustainable energy approach should cover in itself the strategy, technology and application that will enable continuous procurement of energy in a cheap environmental and social cost which can only be assured by considering renewable energy sources. Regardless of its high cost compared to other renewable energy sources (sun, wind, wave etc.) hydraulic power is an energy type with high applicability considering modern energy technology. Yet, while making use of this energy type the environmentalist approach envisaged in Renewable Energy Report presented in Global Sustainable Development Summit (2002) in Johannesburg should be strictly followed. Turkey’s Hydroelectric Potential and Utilization Status Turkey which is situated in the closest meeting point of continents Asia, Europe and Africa is amongst developing countries (Figure 1). Similar to most developed and developing countries, Turkey meets significant portion of its energy from expensive fossil fuels imported. In year 2006 in Turkey electrical energy need was procured from 43% natural gas, 28% coal, 25% hydraulic sources. These ratios will remain the same unless new and renewable potential sources are benefited. In that case our dependency to foreign energy sources will continue and besides the budget we desperately need to make use in other investments (industry, service, education) will be shrunk enormously. Benefiting from most of Turkey’s hydroelectric energy potential in advance would allow great economic profits because it is envisaged that merely 30% of the energy need of Turkey in 2030 will be met by hydroelectric. It would be very appropriate to benefit from hydroelectric prior to year 2030. Above all else, cheap electricity that will be attained by this green energy will have a driving role in development. Since the money used for import fuels will lessen, currency loss will also be decreased. Contribution of cheap energy to industrial development will give way to an increase in national income thus the effect of import energy on country economy will decrease. Moreover as pressure of political tensions on energy will be removed, the probability of actualizing investment projects will be greater. Figure 1: Geographical position of Turkey. 186 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Electrical energy, more than others, has been one of the leading problems of Turkey for a long time. It is obvious that energy trouble we suffer now will be present in future as well. It is urgent that Turkey which probably will have a double energy consumption about 20 years later (2030) should immediately operate all of its water power potential. Turkey (Table 1) which is estimated to possess approximately 1% of global hydroelectric potential and 16% of Europe has planned major energy projects to benefit from this potential and even started some of these projects’ operation. Table 1: World and Turkey’s hydroelectric power potential (www.dsi.gov.tr/hizmet/enerji.htm, 2005). World Europe Asia Turkey Gross HPP Potential (GWh/year) 41 390 000 3 125 000 19 902 000 433 000 Technical HPP Potential (GWh/year) 11 754 000 760 326 4 225 000 216 000 Economic HPP Potential (GWh/year) 7 305 000 758 705 2 626 000 123 400 According to approximate number presented by State Water Works (SWW), annual hydroelectric potential of Turkey which currently has rich water resources is about 128 billion kwh (Figure 2). However some studies envisage that this number can be increased by especially making use of river-type plants. Although there are various development and consumption scenarios about estimating long-term energy need from different parties and organizations, it is not hard to assume that in future Turkey’s energy consumption will rise and unless some measurements are taken presently, a bunch of political and economic problems will emerge in future. Finally, under the light of new projects prepared according to planning objectives of State Planning Organization (SPO), it is estimated that Turkey’s electrical energy need in 2030 will approximately be around 450-500 billion kwh It is envisaged that in 2020 about 25-30% of Turkey’s electrical energy need will be procured from hydroelectric power plants that will have been operated till then. Accordingly in year 2020 about 85% of Turkey’s total hydraulic energy potential will have been used. Figure 2: Turkey’s Streams and Dams. In Turkey, following the 1950s, occurring rapid population growth and urbanization accelerated the demand for electrical energy. In the face of this demand particularly in the 1960s and 1970s dam investments followed one another. Finally in the 1980s hydroelectric generation met roughly 50% of our annual energy need. Moreover as indicated in Table 2, in 1988 60% of our energy need was procured from hydroelectric power plants however energy generation ratio from water power has been falling lately (Table 2). 187 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Table 2: Development of electricity generation in Turkey with respect to energy sources, 1980-2007 ( TEĐAŞ, SHW-2007). ∗ Fueloil, diesel, naphta, renewable waste, geotermal, wind. Years 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Coal (Gwh) 5961 6136 6441 8577 10119 15028 19438 17654 12487 20270 20182 21561 24571 23760 28235 28047 30414 33860 35688 37031 38186 38417 32149 32253 34447 43192 47900 % 26 25 24 31 33 44 49 39 26 39 35 36 37 32 36 33 32 33 32 32 31 31 25 23 23 26 28 Natural gas (Gwh) 0 0 0 0 0 58 1341 2528 3240 9524 10192 12589 10814 10788 13822 16579 17174 22086 24838 36346 46217 49549 52496 63536 62242 73445 74368 % 0 0 0 0 0 0,2 3 6 7 18 18 21 16 15 18 19 18 21 22 31 37 40 41 45 41 45 43 Hydraulic (Gwh) 11348 12616 14167 11343 13426 12045 11873 18618 28950 17640 23148 22683 26568 33951 30586 35541 40475 39816 42229 34678 30879 24010 33864 35329 46084 39561 43544 % 49 51 53 41 44 35 30 42 60 34 40 38 39 46 39 41 43 39 38 30 25 20 26 25 31 24 25 Others (Gwh)∗ ∗ 5967 5967 5944 7427 7069 7088 7045 5554 3308 4311 4022 3412 5390 5238 5679 6080 6799 7534 8269 8386 9640 10749 11071 9462 7925 5758 7171 % Total (Gwh) 25 24 23 28 23 21 18 13 7 9 7 5 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 3 7 9 8 7 5 5 4 23276 24719 26552 27347 30614 34161 38356 44354 47985 52045 57544 60245 67343 73737 78322 86241 94862 103296 111024 116441 124922 122725 129400 140580 150698 161956 172983 The low ratio despite the significant developments in the number of HPP is attached to the highness of total energy generation. Indeed total energy generation which was 23 billion kwh in 1980 rose to 172 billion kwh in 2006. Although hydroelectric generation which was 11 billion kwh in 1980 rose to 46 billion kwh in 2004, still its share in total piece decreased. It is true that today, from 142 facilities of which installed capacity is 12 788 MW average annual 45 billion kWh energy is generated. Besides by completing 41 projects in construction, 13 projects in final stage and 13 projects in feasibility and master stages, hydroelectric energy will once again achieve a significant ratio (Table 3, Photo 1). Table 3:Distribution of Turkey’s hydroelectric energy potential by project levels (Gürbüz, 2007). Status of projects 188 Project (Number of facilities) Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Average Energy Generation Capacity (GWh) In-operation 142 12788 45930 In-construction 41 4397 14351 Projects in final stage 13 2356 6019 Projects with feasibility 176 7269 26415 Projects with master plan 93 5260 18280 Projects of which first investigation is complete Total 301 4474 17559 772 36544 129454 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Figure 1: Deriner will become highest (247 m) dam in Turkey, it completed (Çoruh River-Artvin). Despite the increase in energy consumption per person in our country, it is still lower than general expectations. In Turkey while electricity consumption was 7 kwh per person during the early years of Republic this number rose to 456 in 1980; in 1990 to 819; in 2000 to 1 449 and in 2004 to 1 687. Some sources indicate that this number reached to even 2 150 kWh as of 2005. Despite this huge increase in electricity generation, still the amount per person is low. Indeed consumption ratio which is behind global average (2 500 kwh ), compared to developed countries mostly European with 8 900 kwh and US average value 12 322 kwh, it becomes obvious that in energy use we are far behind the general objectives. Therefore while increasing the consumption of energy which is an indication of development, we should at the same time achieve major investments to procure required energy and prevent a possible energy crisis in future. Today many countries with different social and economic backgrounds have directed themselves to sustainable energy sources and developed major projects to increase the share of these sources in total energy generation. Currently amongst these sources, the most commonly profited one is hydroelectric potential. Actually in countries such as Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ghana, Zambia, Congo, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Norway, Albania and Iceland the rate of hydroelectric in total energy generation reached to 90-100%. In addition to them Austria, Sweden, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Canada, Peru, Columbia, Georgia and New Zealand can be named as countries where hydroelectric energy generation share is more than half of total energy (Table 3). In Turkey in order to make hydroelectric potential profitable new dam and HPP technologies should be followed, and required arrangements should be accelerated for new investments. These sources should be utilized in coping with energy troubles in Turkey to lessen our foreign-source dependency and currency loss. Table 3: Hydroelectric shares of various countries in total energy generation, 2000 (U.N., 200: Statistical Yearbook. Geneva, United Nations., Öziş et al., 2008, Atılgan, 2000). Countries Paraguay Zaire/Konngo Mozambique Norway Albania Zambia Tajikistan Uruguay Kyrgyztan Iceland Ghana Brazil Costa Rica Peru Ecuador The Share of Total (%) 100 100 100 99 99 99 98 93 92 90 88 87 81 81 80 Countries Georgia Venezuela Colombia North Korea Australia New Zealand Canada Croatia Vietnam Sweden Bosnia-Herzegovina Chile Switzerland Nigeria Turkey The Share of Total (%) 79 74 73 65 63 63 61 55 55 50 50 46 40 37 32 189 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Conclusion Currently of approximately 125-130 billion kWh hydroelectric potential of Turkey, merely 35-40 billion kWh which amounts to 30-32%, although subject to change each year, is profited. In order to minimize foreign source dependency in energy and prevent possible energy crisis in future, it is essential that we make use of our renewable energy sources in the most profitable way. If we desire a better world to leave for the next generations, only after making use of sustainable energy sources can we achieve sustainable economical development model. Environment protection measurements and its sanctions go beyond national borders and achieve an international identity. Because of that reason, active participation to international solutions should be provided; renewable and environment friendly sources should be supported and developed. References Altuntaş, T. Z. (2003). Sürdürülebilir kalkınma yenilenebilir enerji ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarını kanun tasarısı taslağı. TMMOB IV. Enerji Sempozyumu, 2003, VA:345-355. Atılgan, I. (2000). Türkiye’nin enerji potansiyeline bakış. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık. Fakültesi Dergisi, 15 (1), 31-47. Doğanay, H. (1998). Enerji Kaynakları. Şafak yayınevi, Ankara. Frey, G.W. & Linke D.J. (2002). Hydropower as a renewable and sustainable energy resource meeting global energy challenges in a reasonable way. Energy Policy, 30, 1261-1265. Gürbüz, A. (2007). Sürdürülebilir enerji temini kapsamında hidrolik kaynaklı enerjinin önemi. IV. Yeni ve Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynakları Sempozyumu, 2007 . Türkiye Makine Müh. Odası, VA:289-298. Öziş, U., Baran T., & Dalkiliç, Y. (2008). Hidroelektrik Enerjiyi Geliştirme Hızları. Su ve Enerji Konferansı, 2008. VA:229-241. Sever, R. (2005). Çoruh nehri enerji yatırım projeleri ve çevresel etkileri. Çizgi Kitabevi, Konya. Sever, R. (2008) Türkiye hidroelektrik üretiminde Çoruh havzası enerji yatırım projelerinin yeri ve önemi. Su ve Enerji Konferansı, 2008), VA:229-241. U.N. (2001). Statistical yearbook. Geneva, United Nations. UNDP, Energy for sustainable development, a policy agenda. In T. B. Johansson & J. Goldenberg (Ed.) Yüksek, Ö. & Kangal, M. (2008). Türkiye’nin hidroelektrik potansiyel ve ihtiyacının değerlendirilmesi. Su ve Enerji Konferansı, 2008), VA:36-46. http://www.dsi.gov.tr (27 April 2009) http://www.dsi.gov.tr/basin/muratli.htm (27 April 2009) http://www.enerji.gov.tr/2009 (28 April 2009) http://www.tikdek.it (28 April 2009) http://www.tikdek.itu.edu.tr/bildiriler/ibrahim_gurer.pdf (28 April 2009) http://www.tuik.gov.tr/ (27 April 2009) ıea electricity ınformation 1999 (29 April 2009) http://www.teias.gov.tr/istatistik2005/index.htm (28 April 2009) 190 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 171 Title A name given to the resource Use of Hydroelectric Power in Sustainable Development of Turkey Author Author SEVER, Ramazan ÖZDEMİR, Ünal ZAMAN, Serhat ALIM, Mete COSKUN, Ogün Abstract A summary of the resource. Energy is a vital element of development. Clear, reliable, environmental friendly and sustainable energy is a prerequisite for the sustainable development. In recent years, it is known that fossil fuel resources are getting towards to finish and also they cause several environmental problems. Therefore, use of renewable energy sources are becoming a necessity. The hydroelectric power, also called green energy, is among the renewable energy sources although it has some disadvantages. Turkey, which is estimated that has 1% of the world and 16% of Europe total hydroelectric power, has initiated projects in order to benefit from these resources and some of them are completed and started to produce electricity. However, as it is the case for several countries nowadays, Turkey is having problems in producing required electricity. This energy necessity is partly overcome by importing petrol and natural gas. However, being dependent on outside energy resources carries important risks for economic and political development. Therefore, it appears that the best solution to the energy shortage is to maximize the use of renewable energy sources in sustainable ways. Currently, Turkey uses 34% (43 billion kwh) of the economic hydroelectric potential (125 billion kwh). Increasing this to 100% in the near future is quite important in terms of reaching planned development objectives Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6dfcea516adff4c3fcd2b02b3cb63e27.pdf 06fcd6c1874bd84564ed9457eb1e615c PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Sustainable Tourism Development an Opportunity for Bosnia and Herzegovina? Edin SMAJIĆ Teaching Assistant Faculty of Economics, Department of Management International Burch University, Bosnia and Herzegovina esmajic@ibu.edu.ba Abstract: Bosnia and Herzegovina is endowed with many resources such as geographical position, climate, nature and above all its people. Its diversity is a magnet for millions of potential travelers and visitors. Neither its government nor its people realize their huge potential and possible benefits that tourism can bring about helping them not only to prosper economically but also reconcile their differences. Tourism is playing more and more important role in national and local economies. There is no evidence that this will trend will decline. Bosnian climate, geographic position, cultural and historic monuments and before all the composition of its people are key attraction for visitors. Visitors will contribute significantly to the local and national economy and the economic multiplier effect of this spend, in turn, supports employment and secondary tourist facilities. Similarly, in the determination of future proposals that could impact on the setting, character and appearance of its potentials, special care is needed by planners and promoters to assess its potential, spread the awareness and unleash it to the Globe so that the benefits can be harvested. Bosnia can learn from its neighbors who are well known tourism leaders. There is a huge room for regional cooperation and collaboration. Nonetheless, Bosnia and Herzegovina has its competitive edge in its diversity that none of the neighbors can possibly acquire in the foreseeable future. Key to the sustainable approach of tourism and the cultural heritage is the preparation of appropriate master plan that takes into account the identified overall effects in order to guide the course of development in a manner that protects those very resources that attract visitors and that does not cause in the short, medium and long term any reduction in their character or appearance. If managed properly tourism can bring about positive change that its people await for long time. Keywords: Tourism; Central and Eastern Europe; management, development, sustainability, tourism, tourist, environmental impact; character and appearance; master plan; strategies; visitor, tourist; management plans 1. Introduction In the limited number of analyses undertaken on tourism development and post-socialist processes of restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), most attention has been paid to the more advanced societies of Central Europe. By contrast, Europe's less developed and relatively unstable south-eastern corner, where tourism development issues may take on a different complexion, has been relatively neglected. Within this context, tourism's role in post-socialist restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe is examined, reflecting on issues of mass tourism and niche segregation. Rural tourism is examined as a vehicle for sustainable development in South-eastern Europe, and some of the paradoxes facing issues of sustainability in tourism development are examined in relation to recent development processes. With a dynamic mix of mass and niche markets to target, the potential of rural tourism development in South-eastern Europe continues to be constrained by regional instability. 114 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 2. Tourism – Its Economic Opportunities 2.1. Background Tourism is only part of the whole idea of sustainable development. Tourism, as it relates to sustainable development, is tourism which is developed so that the nature, scale, location, and manner of development is appropriate and sustainable over time, and where the environment's ability to support other activities and processes is not impaired, since tourism cannot be isolated from other resource use activities. Sustainable tourism involves a challenge to develop quality tourism products without adversely affecting the natural and cultural environment that maintains and nurtures them. At the heart of sustainable tourism is a set of implicit values related to striving to integrate economic, social and cultural goals (Wight, 1993). According to World Tourism Organization (WTO) tourism is said to be the largest and fastest growing industry in the world. Increased leisure time, improved access and infrastructure, increasing disposable incomes and significant reductions in the cost of air travel, despite the current oil price increases, all contribute to huge increases in international travel. On the other hand, changes such as the erosion of international borders and the accessibility of knowledge through increasing use of the internet all assist in the worldwide movement towards a “global village”. Interestingly, the World Tourism Organization predicts that Bosnia and Herzegovina is likely to see one of the greatest increases, worldwide, in tourism up to 2020. The well managed and regulated development of tourism can be a catalyst of positive change. An understanding of different lives, places and cultures erodes the falsely held barriers of misunderstanding about foreign places. The economic multiplier effect means that very significant economic benefits can flow into local and national economies and these benefits can spread way beyond the principle tourist attractions. This is why tourism is characterized as invisible export. However, unplanned and poorly regulated tourism developments can devalue or even destroy the very potential that otherwise compels people to visit new and special places. 2.2. The International & National Context An insight into the current international and national trends in tourism is useful for placing the development of BiH tourism in context. In 2007, in terms of visitor numbers, Trafalgar Square in London was Europe’s top tourist attraction with some 15 million visitors, followed by Notre Dame Cathedral in France with 12 million visitors. Significantly, in worldwide terms, out of the top 50 tourist attractions on the planet, 20 are based on a nation’s cultural heritage and only 9 on a commercial theme park such as Euro Disney. The World Tourist Organization estimated that in 2007 there were 898 billion tourist arrivals. This is expected to increase to 1.6 billion by 2020. Worldwide, tourism brings with it and spends of US$ 2 billion per day in receipts. Tourism accounts for 35 % of the world’s export of services. Significantly it is now estimated that there are 1.4 billion internet users in the world. So there can be little doubt of the worldwide profile of tourism and, most importantly, the pivotal role played by the built and cultural heritage in attracting visitors. 2.3. Estimating The Economic Impacts of Tourism If refer to the definition of tourism we will then see that it is a network of services offered to tourists, and the infrastructure needed to support it, the sector involves a wide range of players including private sector tourism businesses, governmental and intergovernmental organizations, development and conservation NGO networks, consumers, development intermediaries and host communities.1 This is simply implies that no single organization runs tourism. This activity takes more than one party, institution or organization. It involves many different sectors. Economists will often speak of the numbers of jobs that are related to tourism, the amount of “spend” in a local and national economy and, most importantly, the “multiplier effect” of tourist derived income. So as a consequence, tourism can often be held in high regard because it can be seen as a one-way income stream, causing national and local governments to be favorably disposed to promote and regulate tourist facilities at all costs. Estimating the economic costs and benefits of tourism is a complex mathematical exercise and demands answers to many questions. A full economic impact of the promotion of Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to be carried out by trained experts but a brief overview of the economic benefit process is helpful in understanding broader benefits that can ensue. 1 www.world-tour.org 115 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Any systematic study of the economic impact of the tourism induced by the development of tourism in Bosnia and Herzegovina needs firstly to set out the action(s) that are going to bring about tourism growth. Actions will include the development of visitor attractions, marketing, investment levels and the management of the GTA (Government Tourism Association). 3. The Environmental Impacts of Tourism Responsible tourism is the key to ensuring that the benefits that are so apparent from tourism growth are planned, managed, mitigated and developed in tune with the capacity of the environment to absorb the increased pressures that will inevitably arise. This section of my paper examines the key environmental impacts of tourism and the adverse consequences that could arise if the proper development and management of major tourism facilities is not correctly seen as a key overarching objective 3.1. The Nature of the Problem The quality of the built and natural environment is essential in order to provide for quality tourism. The direct impacts caused by the erosion and subsequent damage of the historic fabric, the marring of a historic landscape setting; the unwelcome visual impacts of litter, car parking and access; the need for fresh water, toilet facilities and waste water treatment; the building of poorly designed and planned commercial premises and the proliferation of outdoor advertising as local businesses wish to “cash in” on a new phenomena and the building of unrelated tourist facilities targeted at a new captive market can all, singularly and collectively, gradually destroy the very environmental and heritage resources on which they depend. There is little doubt that unplanned or poorly managed tourism can give rise to pollution, a fact particularly critical in an otherwise unspoilt rural environment. Air quality deterioration from vehicles, noise, littering, sewage, oil and chemical releases can all impact on the natural environment and the enjoyment of their own environment by a host community. More tangible will be new buildings where design qualities play a subordinate role to the wish for local business to construct cheaply and quickly. And we must not loose sight of the effects tourism has on wildlife and flora especially where protected or vulnerable species may experience disturbance or loss of habitat because of human traffic, emissions, sewage run-off or the insatiable need for more concrete and tarmac to cater for more visitors. An inevitable consequence of any successful tourism development is the attendant demands placed on local infrastructure. Visitors to a regionally, nationally or internationally recognized destination will need accommodation, they will need feeding and they will need transportation facilities to gain access. Hence, unplanned, land use conflicts would arise as development pressures for hotels, car parking and catering establishments, if not property regulated, could undermine many of the unique assets offered by a sensitive place, especially once that saturation point is reached. Equally it must be recognized that tourism can be a very seasonal phenomena and if a town or an area becomes too dependent on tourism, its employment structure can be weakened. Mindful that many jobs in the tourism sector tend to be lower paid, lower skilled, part time and seasonal anyway, there can often be an over reliance on transient migratory labor with no direct benefit to a local economy. This is a key consideration when planning for a tourism development. There is a balance to be struck between the environmental impact and the local economic benefits. 3.2. The Environmental Impact Assessment of A Tourism Development Before being able to develop a master plan for the sustainable establishment of a major tourism destination, it is important to understand the environmental impacts that such a project would have. Indeed within the European Union, the principles of environmental impact assessment (EIA) have been incorporated into national legislation since the implementation of the first European Directive 85/337/EEC. Directive 97/11/EC amended the earlier provisions by extending the extent of developments that were caught by the requirement for EIA and made changes to EIA procedures. Further changes took place by virtue of Article 3 of Directive 2003/35/EC which aligns EIA more closely with public participation provided by the Arhus Convention. In accordance with the European Union Directives on EIA, “tourism” falls within a schedule II category of development. That is to say, EIA is required if a tourism development exceeds a specified threshold. If so, it is concluded that the development is likely to have significant effects on the environment. Against this statutory background it is perhaps helpful to have regard to current thinking within the European Union on EIA in order to develop a strategy for the sustainable tourism development. 116 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Every development will trigger change which has an impact on the environment but it is the case with every human activity. Bosnia and Herzegovina is endowed with beautiful nature and the environmental aspect should be carefully studied. Tourism should be used to justify conservation by paying its contribution to the environment, which can be in form of: Creating an audience for historical and archeological attractions which can provide funds for its conservation. (This is why the lengthy explanation of the Roman and Ottoman period in the area). Protection of the forested areas which are now vast but endangered with the illegal logging. Transportation system should be redeveloped and reconsidered. Introduction of environmentally adjusted domestic products. (leather, rock, marble, wood and other materials are abundant in the area and not properly used) Proper zoning, planning and land use should be designed to accommodate the needs of tourists but also to preserve the nature and its landscape. Proper facility planning should follow the following guidelines: Respect the spirit of the places! The development should blend into the environment and local culture. Restore old buildings but respect their original use. Bosnia used to have hundreds of small hans (Inns) and coffee shops that should be restored now and preserved. 4. A Sustainability and Socio Cultural Effects 4.1. Sustainability Based on the general definition for sustainable development, sustainable tourism has been perceived as simultaneously encompassing the environmental, economic and socio-cultural aspects in the long-term planning of the sector development. In order to achieve such balanced development integrating and respecting basic principles such as the precautionary principle, intra- and inter-generation equity, and the responsibility for the preservation of the environment and natural resources for future generations is necessary.1 Sustainable Tourism Products Dialogue between stakeholders in both private and public sector should lead to the development of sustainable tourism products across various sectors of the travel and tourism industry. This is why the proposal for the small hotels, inns, Hans and B&B joints instead of big hotels to start with. Similarly, domestic production should be encouraged in order to avoid transportation but also to contribute to the sustainability. This initiative should lead to introduction other types of tourism such as agro-tourism, village tourism, and farm tourism. At this juncture it is worth drawing together the numerous strands identified earlier in this paper. Indeed I have shown that tourism is a growing phenomenon and in particular Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected by the World Tourist Organization to be one of the world’s fastest growing tourist destinations up to 2020. Additionally there can be no doubt that tourism brings with it socio-economic benefits and these benefits have direct and indirect effects, illustrated by the economic multiplier effect. 4.2. The Underlying Principles of A Sustainable Approach to Tourism 4.2.1. Natural Heritage Considerations To address the natural heritage, development must be compatible with the landscape setting of the site; it must maintain its essential ecological processes and recognize the biological diversity and unique biological resources of the park. Visitor management is essential to deflect pressures from key sensitive locations while ensuring “honey pots” attract visitors to important but less fragile places. The design, planning, development and operation of facilities should incorporate the principles of sustainability including micro-renewable energy, heat insulation and the use of recycled materials wherever possible. Car parking areas should be designed to incorporate sustainable urban drainage facilities that will ensure water retention and dispersal to avoid run off in periods of heavy rain. Special consideration requires to be given to waste management from toilet facilities and litter disposal. Particular care is required in the consideration of development proposals not only within the designated area of the park but out with the park boundaries but nevertheless within its setting. Views that have been unchanged for centuries, and which contribute to the setting and character of the touristic landscape, would be destroyed by the unsympathetic sitting of buildings, roads, power lines, and telecommunications apparatus even if they have nothing to do with the tourism’s development. A special role 1 European Tourism Forum 2002: “Agenda 21 – Sustainability in the European Tourism Sector”, discussion document, Brussels 10 December 2002. 117 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo needs to be played by the local planning authority to channel development to sensitive locations that do not affect the tourism development. 4.2.2. Built Heritage Considerations State regulatory systems impose restrictions on development that could affect the setting, character and appearance of the cultural heritage. In Scotland, for example, the central government imposes very strict controls on work that affects the 5 600 or so scheduled ancient monuments out of the 70 000 or so recorded archaeological sites, under the Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Areas Act 1979. Scheduled monument consent is needed for any works that have the effect of demolishing, destroying, damaging, removing, repairing, altering, adding to, flooding or covering up a monument. All newly discovered ancient objects in Scotland belong to the Crown. Legal protection does not always secure the future proper preservation of an ancient monument and it is thus essential to develop a management plan and to carry out regular maintenance to prevent progressive deterioration and decay. In Bosnia the Commission to Preserve National Monuments, as it is cold should not be seen as an impediment to any development. Its role should be revised and its responsibility should assume greater authority in order to expedite development of sites that will attract tourists. 4.2.3. Socio-Cultural Effects In developing Bosnia into successful tourism product and destination socio-cultural effects on the destination and on the way of life of its inhabitants should be considered. As tourism competes for space, resentment to tourists might be evident. Secondly, the impact visitors make on the people’s values and local way of life. The number of tourists from Turkey is increasing steadily every year and there ought to be some development. People usually resist development and change. The influence of the tourists on the arts, music, dance, painting, sculpture, architecture, handicrafts and other art should be assessed. The medieval city is considerably ruined and only during the festive days thousands of people visit it without any control. Some new elements are also introduced. The vendors selling goods on the streets often overshadow cultural performance with their own music boxes which play music that is not at all suitable for the occasion. Otherwise, the mentioned impacts should have positive effects: - The number of tourists boosts local economy, create wealth, generate income and propel new facilities and the improvements and preservation of the existing ones. - As far as the way of life is concerned, tourism provides for two way flows of information and cultural exchange since it provides contacts and encounters that result in exchange of goods, services and ideas. - Finally, tourism is stimulates local arts, handicrafts and souvenirs. 5. Main Issues One of the main issues is to convince the Bosnian authorities of the country that Bosnia has great tourism potential and as such it should be explored and exploited. Why tourism? There are many reasons why to develop Bosnia and Herzegovina into a leading tourist attraction in the region. Tourism is now one of the world’s largest industries and one of its fastest growing economic sectors. While tourism can build understanding, poorly managed tourism can ruin destinations. Yet if handled well, tourism provides an incentive to build and to preserve the best the destination has to offer: religious sites and buildings, unbeatable nature, historic districts, museums, great scenery and cultural identity reflected in its places and people. If we look at the definition of tourism we will then see that it is a network of services offered to tourists, and the infrastructure needed to support it, the sector involves a wide range of players including private sector tourism businesses, governmental and intergovernmental organizations, development and conservation NGO networks, consumers, development intermediaries and host communities.1 This is simply implies that no single organization runs tourism. This activity takes more than one party, institution or organization. It involves many different sectors. 1 www.wourld-tour.org 118 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 5.1. Lack of Superstructure The whole country struggles with only two five star hotels and most of it 4 and 3 stars usually run full house in the season. Official occupancy rate is ridiculous due to the gray economy. Visitors are longing for maps printed material and proper tourist information centers. 5.2. Lack of Infrastructure Bosnia and Herzegovina was once important junction since it has geostrategic location. Its international airport in Sarajevo carried only 900000 passengers in 2007. Many of the inbound flights are expensive. Its national carrier Air-Bosna is struggling with competition but also with their own management. Hopefully the situation will improve with their new partner Turkish Airlines. The country is not connected with highways and even the motorways are having the reputation of the worst in the Central Europe. The development in this direction is a must for tourism to flourish. Railways and waterways are even worse and we all know that tourism is all about moving people from a destination to a destination. 5.3. Lack of Design and Signage There is virtually no signage in any language that would lead a potential tourist or traveler to come and visit these small but beautiful lost treasuries in the heart of Europe. Tourists in Bosnia and Herzegovina have problems getting their directions. New proper design and signage should be carefully designed and applied. 5.4. Lack of Awareness of The Tourist Destination As already stated many take it as a sacred or holy place to visit but few think of it as tourist destination. In this sense, both the visitors but also the host people should be trained and education for their respective role and the interaction not only the interaction with one another but the interaction with the environment too. This should be incorporated in the overall awareness program. 6. Practical Steps Forward For any tourism to develop all three levels of stakeholders1 should be working together. The three levels are: 1. GOVERNMENT which should take place of policy and planning and give a general framework for cooperation. Governments at all levels, and there are many in Bosnia, should give a kick start for the religious tourism to take off. That is to say that they should consider it as national treasury on which the whole country should capitalize. 2. Second level includes the organizations concerned with tourism development and operations that are in the front line i.e. hotels, other accommodation facilities, catering services, cultural, historic and scenic attractions, and transportations services. 3. The third level includes the whole range of ANCILLARY SUPPORT SERVICES that are both public and private such as: police, post office, customs and immigration, the media, the retail trade, banks, churches, universities and colleges, trade unions… Various committees, councils, working groups, task forces representing public and private sector should play coordinating and consultative role. Government Government tourism administration (GTA2) chiefly depends on the administrative composition of the country. Unfortunately, Bosnia and Herzegovina has many levels of administration and many governments from local to cantonal to the entity and finally the on the level of the whole country herein referred as BiH level. Every municipality has its own tourist association. Similarly, every canton has tourist association. Both entities have their own tourist association and unfortunately it stops there. On the BiH there is no institution that handles tourism and plays coordinating role for the whole country. Ministry of Foreign Trade is responsible for tourism but plays extremely passive role due to several reasons. The major reason is that the tourism has been 1 2 Doswell, R., 1997, Tourism, How effective management makes the difference, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann, p. 7 Ibid. p. 86. 119 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo very much politicized and it is used in the political campaign aggressively. However, the said ministry does not have a person responsible for the sector let alone the profile of that person nor is there a law on tourism on the BiH level. Secondly, there was no strategy for the development of the country and thus there is no strategy for tourism. Thirdly, as a result of the two, tourism is given a passive support without any funds. Bih Level Government Having in mind this, the situation down the ladder is rather chaotic. Since there is no strategy on the highest level, no laws pertaining to tourism and no coordinating body all the governmental instances are left to themselves to create their own strategies. This resulted in many strategies and many overlapping projects where energy and funds are lost. Only lately governments at various levels started cooperating and this is a good sign but far from satisfactory outcomes. Both entities now have ministries for tourism but they respectively lack political independence, appropriate skills, and clarity of objectives, intergovernmental cooperation and coordination. In addition, their jobs are poorly defined and this leads to confusion and duplication. It is clear that it is a high time for Bosnia and Herzegovina to set up an administrative body that will be in charge of tourism on the BiH level. The long debated law on tourism should provide for this. This body can be either in form of full ministry, part of the ministry or even semi government body. Its function should be: - Planning and control o Product research and planning o human resource planning and training o licensing and supervision - Marketing o Representing the whole country as tourist destination o Market research o Production of tourism literature o Advertising - Financial o Advising business and potential investors o Directing and approving governmental aid programs for tourist projects - Coordinating o Linking with trade and professional bodies, government and regional or local tourist organizations o Undertaking coordinated marketing activities with private tourist enterprises The laws should provide for the overarching principles that will clearly define the duties and responsibilities of all the stakeholders in tourism. Only then the government authority will be able to provide for the common strategy and development plan where the religious tourism will be included and promoted. Local Government Local government should play important role in developing tourism. They should: - Assess the number and the distribution of tourists in the area - Estimate future changes and its implications - Identify growth opportunities - Assess the impact of tourism on employment and income in the area, - Identify the need for conservation They should also take care of the following: - Provision of leisure facilities for tourists (so far there is none) - Planning - Parking for coaches and cars - Production of statistics - Marketing of the whole area - Preservation of historic buildings - Public health In fact, the local government should be a catalyst from the region campaigning and fighting for before the BIH government to draw attention of its potentials. They should do the same campaign before the cantonal government and its tourist association. 7. Summary and Conclusions 120 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Enhanced understanding of a country through international tourism can have significant benefits at the macro-economic level. By complimenting economic development and “showcasing” a country, tourism is a tool that helps overcome ill-conceived international barriers to economic development. A good example may be Northern Ireland where conflicts in 70s and 80s deterred many visitors. The recent peace settlement in Northern Ireland has unleashed countless tourist visits north and south of the border. In turn barriers to trade caused by misunderstanding and an absence of true knowledge are erased, fuelling a boom based upon new found tourism opportunities. Twenty years ago who would ever have seen Belfast as a tourist destination? Tourism is one of the world’s largest industries and the largest service sector. It is bigger than cars, agriculture or electronics and 52 % of tourism expenditure takes place in Europe, compared with 21 % in the Americas. Tourism is growing fastest in emerging markets such as Bosnia-Herzegovina which is expected by the UN’s World Tourist Organization to be one of the fastest growing tourist sectors in the world by 2020. The vast majority of tourism jobs are found in small and medium sized firms; new income is generated; new jobs are formed; entrepreneurship is fostered and social conditions are enhanced. Local companies can be supported; improvements flow to local utilities and services; improved infrastructure is provided; local living standards are raised and urban and rural regeneration follows. The best indicator that Bosnia and Herzegovina can develop its tourism and sustain it is the fact that most of the visitors love the country and most of them would come back. If we listen to them carefully, respond to their needs and wishes considering our resources and capacities we can start harvesting the benefits. The reinvestment of those benefits can bring about the positive change but also secure sustainability o tourism on long run. References Aronson, L., 2000, The Development of Sustainable Tourism, London, Continuum. Boniface, P. and Fowler, PJ. 1993, Heritage and Tourism in Global Village, London, Routhledge. Doswell, R., 1997, Tourism, How effective management makes the difference, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann. Fsadni, C. and Selwyn, T. (eds), 1997, Sustainable Tourism in Mediterranean Islands and Small Cities, University of Malta, MED-CAMPUS. Holloway, J. Christopher, (6th ed.), The Business of Tourism, Harlow, Financial Times, Prentice Hall. Mowforth, M. and Munt, I. 1998 Tourism and Sustainability, London, Routhledge. Nash, D., 1996, Anthropology of Tourism, Oxford, Pergamon. Richards, G. (ed), 1996, Cultural Tourism in Europe, Wallingford, CAB International. United Nations World Tourism Organization: A practical guide to destination management, 2007 United Nations World Tourism Organization: Tourism enriches USAID: Cultural Tourism in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Preliminary Findings 2006 www.unwto.org Yale, P., 1995, The Business of Tour Operations, Harlow, Pearson Education Limited. 121 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 139 Title A name given to the resource Sustainable Tourism Development an Opportunity for Bosnia and Herzegovina? Author Author SMAJIĆ, Edin Abstract A summary of the resource. Bosnia and Herzegovina is endowed with many resources such as geographical position, climate, nature and above all its people. Its diversity is a magnet for millions of potential travelers and visitors. Neither its government nor its people realize their huge potential and possible benefits that tourism can bring about helping them not only to prosper economically but also reconcile their differences. Tourism is playing more and more important role in national and local economies. There is no evidence that this will trend will decline. Bosnian climate, geographic position, cultural and historic monuments and before all the composition of its people are key attraction for visitors. Visitors will contribute significantly to the local and national economy and the economic multiplier effect of this spend, in turn, supports employment and secondary tourist facilities. Similarly, in the determination of future proposals that could impact on the setting, character and appearance of its potentials, special care is needed by planners and promoters to assess its potential, spread the awareness and unleash it to the Globe so that the benefits can be harvested. Bosnia can learn from its neighbors who are well known tourism leaders. There is a huge room for regional cooperation and collaboration. Nonetheless, Bosnia and Herzegovina has its competitive edge in its diversity that none of the neighbors can possibly acquire in the foreseeable future. Key to the sustainable approach of tourism and the cultural heritage is the preparation of appropriate master plan that takes into account the identified overall effects in order to guide the course of development in a manner that protects those very resources that attract visitors and that does not cause in the short, medium and long term any reduction in their character or appearance. If managed properly tourism can bring about positive change that its people await for long time. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/3928de5bf88f9e81ff9b077e7eca3390.pdf b2244636bb0c7d6ced1b65fd98efd3c6 PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Economic Variable Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study in Turkey Abdülhamit SUBAŞI Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Sütcü Imam University, Kahramanmaraş, Turkey asubasi@ksu.edu.tr Erkan ĐLGÜN Department of Management International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina eilguen@ibu.edu.ba Abstract: Since financial and economic time series are nonlinear, neural networks can be efficiently used in the financial and economic time series forecasting. In this paper we used machine learning technique for data mining to evaluate the predictive relationships of economic variables of Turkey. Neural network models are examined for their capability to provide an efficient forecast of future values. For illustration and confirmation purposes, the proposed model is conducted on typical economic time series. Empirical results obtained show that the proposed neural-network-based nonlinear modeling technique is a very promising approach to economic time series forecasting. Keywords: ANN, Turkey, Economic time series forecasting. 1. Introduction Several factors impact financial markets, including political events, general economic circumstances, and even traders’ expectations. Due to the high degrees of irregularity and nonlinearity, financial and economic time series forecasting is regarded as a rather challenging task (Lai/Yu/Wang/Zhou, 2006; Yu/Wang/Lai, 2005; Yu//Lai, 2009). The non-stationary characteristic of financial and economic time series implies that the distribution of these time series is changing over time. As a result, for traditional linear models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), it is very complicated to capture the irregularity and nonlinearity hidden in financial and economic time series. Recently, artificial neural Networks (ANNs) were effectively used in financial and economic time series modeling and forecasting (Yu/Wang/Lai, 2005; Yu//Lai, 2009; Yu,Wang/Lai 2007; Cheng/Wanger/Lin 1996; Sharda/Patil 1994; Van/Robert 1997; Kaastra/Milton 1995; Francis/Lijuan 2001). Unlike traditional statistical models, neural networks are data-driven, non-parametric models. Therefore, neural networks are less vulnerable to the problem of model misspecification as compared to most of the parametric models. As a result, if compared to traditional statistical models, neural networks are more efficient in describing the dynamics of financial and economic time series Francis/Lijuan 2001; Zhang/Michael 1998; Chiang/Urban/Baildridge 1996). Actually, neural networks suggest a novel technique that does not necessitate a pre-specification during the modeling procedure because they independently learn the relationship inherent in the variables. Moreover neural networks suggest the flexibility of several architecture types, learning algorithms, and validation procedures (Enke/Thawornwong 2005). With the increasing globalization process and technological improvement in the information technology sector the movement of factors over the globe raises. Technology, capital stock and labor force is the factor that determines economic output, according to the literature on growth (Jones 1997). Without any doubt, there exist a considerable gap between developing and developed countries when qualified labor force, technology advance and capital stock as well is considered. Consequently the immense gap between the annual output levels of developed and developing countries are assigned to the differences in these factors. For developing countries it is much more exhaustive to meet the very expensive Research and Development activities. Researchers have long been concerned with the underlying data-generating process for key macroeconomic variables such as GNP, GDP and inflation. There have been various macroeconomic timeseries studies based on ANN models. In these models, one set of parameters governs the evolution of the dependent variable. In this work, we used a neural network approach for the prediction of gross national product (GNP) of TURKEY. Hence we will briefly review and discuss the economic structure of Turkey in the next section. In section three, we will briefly review and discuss the artificial neural network (ANN) model. The resulting data selection and model development, empirical results, and conclusion will then be presented, respectively. 212 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 2. Economic Development of Turkey The flows of factors of production over the globe increases with the ongoing globalization process and additional improvements of the information technology. Technology, capital stock and labor force is the factor that determines Economic output according to the literature on growth. (Jones 1997) Without any doubt, there exist a considerable gap between developing and developed countries when qualified labor force, advanced technological utilities and capital stock as well is considered. It can be concluded that the immense gap between the annual output levels of developed and developing countries are assigned to the differences in these factors. An increased allowance of less developed countries to the liberalization policies of the early 80s was an important matter for policy makers to integrate their own economy in the world. A rough division of the Turkish economic history can be seen from the perspective of macroeconomic reorientation from the import-led industrialization to trade liberalization and export oriented growth strategy dominated up to the 1980s. According to various influential factors in the history Turkey had put many barriers in front of international trade and investment and devoted herself to state-controlled enterprises before 1980s. Growth was based for a long-term on import strategy. After suffered economic disruptions the National Committee of the State Planning Unit has been established as a constitutional institution. With the five-year plans between 1963 - 1980 developing plans were that both the State as well as from the private sector constructive impulses of the Turkish economy should be accompanied (Mixed Economy). In order to control the high inflation, rising unemployment numbers, political violence the Government announced on 24.01.1980, with the support of international financial and economic organizations, the start of the necessary fundamental economical, legal and institutional change to strengthening the integration of Turkey into the global economy. (Ekinci 1990, Kepenek/Yentürk 1997, Metin-Ozcan/Voyoda/Yeldan 2001; Alici/Ucal 2003) In the 80s began the liberalization of trade and financial deregulation, where the control of capital flows repealed and the Turkish currency from this time was fully convertible. In 1996 the customs union with the European Union continued. With the more integration Turkey’s economy to the global capital and financial markets their serious consequences was felt in Turkey during the crisis in 1999. Following the two crises in 1991 and 1994 the macroeconomic environment, forced the government towards the end of 1999 to implement a stabilization program with the intention to reduce the rate of inflation, the real interest rate and the debt stock of Turkey. As a result of the 1994 crisis, the more expensive imported goods resulting from the nominal depreciation and the high short-term interest rates decreased the industrial production having an impact on the economic output. (Celasun 1994; Celasun/Denizer/He 1999) Hence the economic performance broke again with the crisis in 1991 and 1994. Due to a dispute between the then Prime Minister Ecevit and President Sezer in February 2001 a new crisis sparked in Turkey. The main challenge for the government was the restore of macroeconomic balance subject to reduce inflation and sustained economic growth. With the launch of the new economic stabilization program after the 2001 crisis the positive trend continues. 2002 and 2003 were the years of economic recovery from the crisis of 2001. So far Turkey lacks low confidence, weak governance and informal sector in the past that prevented sustainable economic growth (OECD, Policy Brief: Economic Survey of Turkey 2004, October) with the retrieval of economic stability the focus was set on sustainable economic growth. After the short-lived coalition governments and coalition governments a single party government came to power with the 2004 elections. Political stability was obtained and provided huge external support as well as positive affects of the EU reforms economic stability has been further reinforced Turkey is still in comparison to most existing EU members very weak, but is also dynamic. Since 2002 Turkey has had a robust economic growth. Investments (both private and public), industrial production as well as degree of capacity utilization have been increased during the time period between 2001-2007 as well. By closer contemplation there is a relationship between industrial production and economic growth. Foreign Direct investments can be quoted as another determinant that affected economic growth. (Alici/Ucal 2003) FDI plays a serious role in the development of closing the gap with industrialized nations (catch up) and the alignment with EU standards (convergence). Overall after the first crisis in Turkey there was a shift from the mainly public economy to the private sector's which put focus on effort to increase the efficiency in order to remain global competitive. 3. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model The multilayer perceptron network is the most commonly used neural network in economic and financial time series modeling. In general, the network represents the way the human brain processes input sensory data, received as input neurons, into recognition as an output neuron. The interconnected neurons generate expectations or forecasts which lead to reactions and decisions in financial data. Mainly, actions come from forecasts based on the parallel processing of interconnected neurons (McNelis 2005). The input variables are fed into a layer of units making up the input layer for each training sample. The weighted outputs of these 213 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo units are then fed to a hidden layer. The weight outputs of the hidden layer are input to units making up the output layer which issues the network’s prediction for a given set of samples. Back propagation is the most popular neural network algorithm. It is a method for assigning responsibility for mismatches to each of the processing elements in the network by propagating the gradient of the activation function back through the network to each hidden layer down to the first hidden layer. The weights are then modified so as to minimize the mean squared error between the network’s prediction and the actual target (Enke/Thawornwong 2005). 4. Results and Discussion The main objective of this study was to investigate the applicability of the ANN technique in the prediction of GNP time series. The selection of the input variables is a modeling decision that can significantly influence the model performance. In the neural network situation, the information gain data mining analysis was used to find good subsets of the full set of the first-period input variables. Thus, overall balance, foreign direct investment, gross fixed investment, labor force and gross national product (GNP) variables were consistently used as the input variables for training the neural networks throughout the modeling phase. The values of the input variables were first preprocessed by normalizing them to decrease the effect of magnitude between the inputs and thus increase the effectiveness of the learning algorithm. It is well known that most trading practices implemented by financial analysts rely on precise prediction of the financial instruments. After many experiments with various numbers of hidden layer neurons, learning algorithms, and learning rates, the feedforward neural network employing 5 neurons in the input-layer, 10 neurons in the hidden layer, 0.05 learning rate, and a gradient descent back propagation training algorithm was found to be the best network architecture based on the lowest average root-mean squared error. ANN training is not firm since the training process may depend on the choice of a random start. Training is also computationally expensive in terms of the training times used to determine the appropriate network structure. The degree of success, therefore, may fluctuate from one training pass to another. The focus of this section of the paper was to examine and discuss the results obtained from the ANN model. In this model, five basic economic variables were presented in the network as input parameters to determine the relationship between GNP properties and parameter. In order to develop an ANN model, the input parameters were also individually excluded from the input parameters. As previously mentioned, developed ANN models were tested by data sets from the State Planning Organization, which were not employed in the training stage. To evaluate how accurate the result of the developed ANN model is, the coefficient of correlation (R2) was used as statistical verification tools. Estimated values were graphically compared with the actual values as in Figure1. As can be seen, the ANN models were found to be able to learn the relationship between the input parameters overall balance, foreign direct investment, gross fixed investment, laborforce and gross national product (GNP). Figure 2 gives the statistical performance of the ANN model. It appears that there is a relatively good agreement between the ANN predictions and the actual data. This can be interpreted from the R2 value 0.976. R2 value of the model reflects the overall error performance of the model. One can clearly see that ANN model gives good correlation between the estimated and real GNP values. Consequently, when the results in figures are evaluated, it can be concluded that ANN models can be used for the prediction of GNP. The predictive performance of the developed model was estimated using the untouched out-of-sample (testing) data. This is due to the fact that the superior in sample performance does not always guarantee the validity of the forecasting accuracy. One possible approach for evaluating the forecasting performance is to investigate whether traditional error measure such as correlation coefficient (R2) between the actual out-of sample returns and their predicted values are small or highly correlate, respectively. Hence, the prediction of the forecasting model must be adjusted for unbiased performance comparisons. The empirical results show that ANN can accurately estimate GNP because of the high correlation (R2) relationship. This is due to the fact that the correlation (R2) of these models indicates higher positive relationship between the actual and predicted values of GNP. The findings strongly support the non-linearity relationship between the past economic variables. 5. Conclusions In this study we investigate the predictive power of economic variables by using ANN as machine learning technique for data mining. The study has focused on input data, forecasting methodology and measures used for performance evaluation. This approach seems suitable in selecting the variables when the usefulness of the data is unknown, especially when nonlinearity exists in the economic variables as found in this study. The observation is that neural networks model is suitable for GNP forecasting. ANN gives better results as trading systems and higher forecasting accuracy. In conclusion, both researchers and practitioners have studied financial and economic time series prediction for many years. Many studies conclude that some economic variables can be predicted by using 214 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo ANN. To this end, our finding suggests that economic forecasting is always and will remain difficult since such data are greatly influenced by economical, financial, political, international, and even natural events. Obviously, this study covers only fundamental available information, while the technical analysis approach remains intact. References Alici, A. A./Ucal, M. S.(2003): Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis, Paper to be Presented at the European Trade Study Group, Fifth Annual Conference, 11-13 September 2003, Madrid Celasun, O./Denizer, C./He, D.(1999): Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Management, and the Financial System: The Turkish Case, 1987-1997, World Bank Working Paper 2141 Celasun, M. (1994): Trade and Industrialization in Turkey: Initial Conditions, Policy and Performance in the 1980s in Hellenier, G. K. (Ed.) Trade Policy and Industrialization in Turbulent Times, Routledge Cheng W., Wanger, L., Lin, C. H. (1996). Forecasting the 30-year US treasury bond with a system of neural networks. Journal of Computational Intelligence in Finance; 4:10–6. Chiang WC, Urban TL, Baildridge G. (1996). A neural network approach to mutual fund net asset value forecasting. Omega; 24(2):205–15. Ekinci, N. (1990): Macroeconomic Developments in Turkey: 1980-1988, METU Studies in Development, 17 (1-2), pp. 73114 Enke, D., Thawornwong, S. (2005). The use of data mining and neural Networks for forecasting stock market returns, Expert Systems with Applications 29, 927–940. Francis E.H. Tay, Lijuan Cao. (2001). Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting, Omega 29, 309–317. Jones, C. I. (1997): Introduction to Economic Growth, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., New York Kaastra, I., Milton SB. (1995). Forecasting futures trading volume using neural networks. The Journal of Futures Markets; 15(8):853–970. Kepenek, Y./Yentürk, N (1997): Türkiye Ekonomisi, Remzi Kitapevi Lai, K.K., Yu, L., Wang, S. Y., Zhou, C. X. (2006). Neural-network-based metamodeling for financial time series forecasting, in: Proceedings of the 9th Joint Conference on Information Sciences, JCIS 2006, Atlantis Press, Paris, 172–175. McNelis, P. D.(2005). Neural Networks in Finance: Gaining Predictive Edge in the Market, Elsevier Academic Press, 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA01803, USA. Metin-Ozcan, K./Voyoda, E./Yeldan, E. (2001): Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy: Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969 – 1998, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 22 (1), pp. 219-253 Sharda R, Patil RB. (1994). A connectionist approach to time series prediction: an empirical test. In: Trippi, RR, Turban, E, (Eds.), Neural Networks in Finance and Investing, Chicago: Probus Publishing Co., 451–64. Van E, Robert J. (1997). The application of neural networks in the forecasting of share prices. Haymarket, VA, USA: Finance & Technology Publishing. Yu, L.,Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2009). A neural-network-based nonlinear metamodeling approach to financial time series forecasting, Applied Soft Computing 9, 563–574. Yu, L., Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2007). Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting With Artificial Neural Networks, Springer, New York. Yu, L., Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2005). A novel nonlinear ensemble forecasting model incorporating GLAR and ANN for foreign exchange rates, Computers & Operations Research 32 (10), 2523–2541. Zhang GQ, Michael YH. (1998). Neural network forecasting of the British Pound=US Dollar exchange rate. Omega; 26(4):495–506. 215 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 400 Actual Estimated 350 GNP 300 250 200 150 1992 1995 1998 Years 2001 2004 2006 Figure 1. Comparison of actual values with the results obtained from the ANN model Figure 2. Performance of ANN model for testing dataset. 216 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 203 Title A name given to the resource Economic Variable Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study in Turkey Author Author SUBASI, Abdülhamit iLGÜN, Erkan Abstract A summary of the resource. Since financial and economic time series are nonlinear, neural networks can be efficiently used in the financial and economic time series forecasting. In this paper we used machine learning technique for data mining to evaluate the predictive relationships of economic variables of Turkey. Neural network models are examined for their capability to provide an efficient forecast of future values. For illustration and confirmation purposes, the proposed model is conducted on typical economic time series. Empirical results obtained show that the proposed neural-network-based nonlinear modeling technique is a very promising approach to economic time series forecasting. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/34c395ea379c3ae4868b2164bf7f3122.pdf 684fde088202b2f7d0a942d8ab1d3f6c PDF Text Text 1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Numerical Investigations of Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics of Water Based CuO and Al2O3 Nanofluids Using Two-Phase Mixture Model Bayram Şahin Atatürk University Engineering Faculty Department of Mechanical Engineering Erzurum, Turkey bsahin@atauni.edu.tr Abdurahim Bölükbaşi Atatürk University Engineering Faculty Department of Mechanical Engineering Erzurum, Turkey aboluk@atauni.edu.tr Özgür Bedir Atatürk University Engineering Faculty Department of Mechanical Engineering Erzurum, Turkey ozgurbedir@gmail.com Ömer Çomakli Bayburt University Engineering Faculty Department of Mechanical Engineering Bayburt, Turkey ocomakli@bayburt.edu.tr Abstract: The development of high-performance thermal systems has increased interest in heat transfer enhancement techniques. The application of additives to heat transfer liquids is one of the noticeable effort to enhance heat transfer. The stable suspensions of nanoparticles (typically < 100 nm) in liquids are called nanofluids. In this study, heat transfer characteristics of two different nanofluids flowing through a circular tube under constant heat flux condition have been investigated numerically. Fluent 6.3 has been used this numerical study. Two-phase mixture model has been implemented two solve the problem. The comparison has been made between calculated and experimental results. The suspended nanosized particles enhance heat transfer and Nusselt numbers by comparing pure water at the same Reynolds numbers. Moreover, pressure drops for the nanofluids is approximately the same as that of pure water. The nanofluids containing CuO has showed bigger heat transfer enhancement than Al2O3 in all volume fraction rates. Keywords: nanofluids, heat transfer, convection, nanoparticles 1. Introduction Conventional heat transfer fluids such as water, engine oil and ethylene glycol are normally used as heat transfer fluids. Since these conventional fluids have low heat transfer performance the heat transfer enhancement is limited with these conventional fluids. The use of solid particles as an additive suspended into the base fluid is a technique for the heat transfer enhancement. Innovative heat transfer fluids with nanoparticules suspended in them are called “nanofluids”. Behzadmer et al. (2007) studied turbulent forced convection heat transfer in a circular tube with a nanofluid consisting of water and 1 vol.% Cu numerically. Two phase mixture model has been implemented for the first time to study such a flow field. A single phase model formulation, which has been used frequently in the past for heat transfer with nanofluids, is also used for comparison with the mixture model. Their comparison of calculated results with experimental values shows that the mixture model is more precise than the single phase model. The axial evolution of the flow field and fully developed velocity profiles at different Reynolds numbers 306 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo are also presented and discussed. Nguyen et al (2007) have experimentally investigated the behavior and heat transfer enhancement of Al2O3 nanoparticle–water mixture, flowing inside a closed system that is destined for cooling of microprocessors or other electronic components. Experimental data, obtained for turbulent flow regime, have clearly shown that the inclusion of nanoparticles into distilled water has produced a considerable enhancement of the cooling block convective heat transfer coefficient. Hwang et al. (2008) measured the pressure drop and convective heat transfer coefficient of water-based Al2O3 flowing through a uniformly heated circular tube in the fully developed laminar flow regime. Experimental results show that the convective heat transfer coefficient enhancement exceeds, by a large margin, the thermal conductivity enhancement. They propose that flattening of velocity profile is a possible mechanism for the convective heat transfer coefficient enhancement exceeding the thermal conductivity enhancement. Heris et al. (2007) investigated laminar flow forced convection heat transfer of Al2O3/water inside a circular tube with constant wall temperature experimentally. The Nusselt numbers of nanofluids were obtained for different nanoparticle concentrations as well as various Peclet and Reynolds numbers. Experimental results emphasize the enhancement of heat transfer due to the nanoparticles presence in the fluid. Heat transfer coefficient increases by increasing the concentration of nanoparticles in nanofluid. The increase in heat transfer coefficient due to presence of nanoparticles is much higher than the prediction of single phase heat transfer correlation used with nanofluid properties. Wen and Ding (2005) studied about formulation of aqueous based nanofluids and its application under natural convective heat transfer conditions. They claimed that very stable titanium dioxide/water nanofluids could be formulated through the mechanical shear mixing and electrostatic stabilization. Both transient and steady heat transfer coefficients were obtained for different concentrations of nanofluids under natural convective conditions. The nanofluids are found to decrease the natural convective heat transfer coefficient; such deterioration increases with nanoparticle concentrations. Possible reasons/mechanisms attributed to such behavior are discussed, including the convection induced by concentration difference, particle–surface and particle–particle interactions, and modifications of the dispersion properties. Further experimental and theoretical works are being carried on to identify the exact causes. In this study two phase mixture model wa applied to study turbulent heat transfer forced convection flow of nanofluids in a uniformly heated tube. 2. Mathematical formulation 2.1. Mixture model The mixture model is based on a single fluid two phase approach. Each phase has its own velocity and own volume fraction, primary phase and the secondary phase. The dimensional equations are independent from the time. Hydraulic diameter and turbulent intensity have been specified for each Reynolds number. Nanofluid consists of water-Al2O3 and water-CuO. The simulation is a two-dimensional (axisymmetric) steady and forced turbulent convection flow of nanofluid(water-CuO and water-Al2O3). The horizontal circular tube has diameter of 0.0115 m and a length of 0.84 m. The fluid and particles insert the circular tube with uniform axial velocity and temperature. Results in this study illustrate the effect of the Reynolds number on the turbulent forced convection flow characteristics of a nanofluid consisting of water and %0.5, %1, %2, %3, %4 volume fraction CuO with 33 nm and Al2O3 with 50 nm mean diameter. The governing equations for the fluid flow are : Countinuty equation for the mixture ∇.(ρ mVm ) = 0 (1) Momentum  n  ∇.(ρ mVmVm ) = −∇p m + ∇.[τ − τ l ] + ρ m g + ∇. ∑ φ k ρ k Vdr ,k Vdr ,k   k =1  (2) Energy 307 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo ∇.(φ k Vk ( ρ k hk + p ) ) = ∇.(λeff ∇T − C p ρ m vt ) (3) Volume fraction ∇.(φ p ρ pVm ) = −∇.(φ p ρ pVdr , p ) (4) Mixture density n ρ m = ∑φk ρ k (5) k =1 Mixture viscosity n µ m = ∑ φk µ k (6) k =1 Solid viscosity model was determined from experimental work of Miller and Gidaspow(1992). µ s = −0.188 + 537.42φ Where φ is solid volume fraction and (7) µ s is in unit of centipose. Drift velocity(Vk is secondary phase velocity) Vdr , k = Vk − Vm (8) τ = µ m ∇Vm (9) n τ t = −∑ φ k ρ k v k v k (10) k =1 Slip velocity(Vp is secondary phase velocity) V pf = V p − V f (11) Drift velocity is φk ρ k V fk k =1 ρ k n Vdr , p = V pf − ∑ (12) the relative velocity is given by Manninen et al. (1996), V pf ρ p d p2 ( ρ p − ρ m ) = a 18µ f f drag ρp The drag function is given by Schiller and Naumann (1935) 308 (13) �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo f drag 1 + 0.15 Re0p.687 =  0.0183 Re p Re p ≤ 1000 (14) Re p > 1000 d is the diameter of the particles of secondary phase , a is the acceleration of secondary-phase. a = g − (V .∇)Vm (15) 2.2. Turbulence model In this study κ − ε turbulence model has been used (Launder 1972). κ − ε turbulence model contains two additional equations. These are turbulence kinetic energy ( κ ) and dissipation (ε) rate. µ  ∇( ρ mVmκ ) = ∇. t , m ∇κ  + Gk , m − ρ mε  σk  (16) µ  ε ∇.( ρ mVmε ) = ∇. t , m ∇ε  + (C1Gk , m − C2 ρ mε )  σε  κ  κ2    µ t ,m =  ρ m C µ ε   Gk , m = µt , m (∇Vm + (∇Vm )T ) (17) (18) (19) C µ = 0.09 , C1ε = 1.44 , C 2ε = 1.92 , σ κ = 1.0 , σ ε = 1.3 σ κ , σ ε are Prandtl constants. µt , m is eddy Gk,m is turbulence kinetic energy generation due to average velocity gradient. numbers for turbulence kinetic energy and dissipation rate, C1ε ve C 2ε are viscosity[Fluent 2006]. 2.3. Boundry conditions Uniform axial velocity, temperature have been specified at the tube inlet, turbulent intensity and hydraulic diameter [Fluent 2006] have been also specified. At the tube outlet section, the flow and temperature fields are assumed fully developed ((x/D) > 10). Pressure-outlet boundary condition has been implemented for the outlet section. Only half of the tube was modeled due to the symmetry. On the upper wall of the tube, the noslip boundary condition was imposed. The wall is subjected to a uniform heat flux. On the lower wall of the modeled domain, the axis boundary condition was applied. In the present analysis, the near wall treatment was based on enhanced wall functions [Fluent 2006]. 2.4. Numerical procedure The CFD code Fluent was used for solving this problem. Second order upwind scheme was employed to discretize equations. Pressure and velocity were coupled using Semi Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations [SIMPLE] (Patankar 1980). 2.5. Grid optimization 100 x 150, 115x160, 150x200, 200x250 in r-direction and in x-direction grids were tested. All gave similar values of velocity and temperature at the outlet. Therefore, 100×150 was accepted as the ideal grid size. 309 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Fig. 1. Grid figure used in the present simulation, axisymmetric from X-axis. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1. Validation of the present simulation The tube has a diameter of 0.0115 m and a length of 0.84 m. The fluid enters the tube with a constant inlet temperature Tin of 293 K and with uniform axial velocity Vin. The Reynolds number was varied from 10000 to 80000. In order to validate the computational model, the numerical results were compared with the theoretical data available for the conventional fluids. The Nusselt number computed with simulation for developed turbulent flow were compared with the Eq. 20 given by Petukhov, (Incropera 2000), Nu D = (f / 8) Re D Pr (20) 1.07 + 12.7(f / 8)1/ 2 (Pr 2 / 3 − 1) Fig. 2 shows the comparison of Nusselt numbers from Petukhov equation and computed values fro m present study for water. The maximum deviation and average deviation of computed Nusselt number from equation given by Petukhov is 9.9 and 6.4%, respectively. Nusselt number 700 600 present study 500 Petukhov equation 400 300 200 100 0 0 20000 40000 60000 Reynold number 80000 Fig. 2. Comparison between computed values of Nusselt numbers and Petukhov equation The friction factor values were compared with the Darcy friction factor given by Blasius [White] is presented as Eq. (21) f = 4C f = 4(0.0791Re −1 4 ) (21) Fig. 3 displays the comparison of Darcy friction factor from Blasius equation and computed values from this numerical study. An excellent agreement is observed and maximum deviation of computed values from Blasius equation is 2.8 % for friction factor over the range of Reynolds numbers studied. 310 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 0,04 present study Blasius equation f 0,03 0,02 0,01 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Reynolds number Fig.3. Comparison of Darcy friction factor by Blasius equation and computed values 3.2 Effect of nanoparticule volume concentration on the Nusselt number Heat transfer coefficient, h (W/m 2K) Fig. 4 shows heat transfer coefficient as a function of the Reynolds number for the different Al2O3 nanoparticle volume concentrations. It is seen from Fig 4. that heat transfer coefficient increases with increasing volume fraction. 70000 Su Al2O3 0, 5% Al2O3 1% Al2O3 2% Al2O3 3% Al2O3 4% 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Reynolds Number Fig. 4. Effect of volume fraction ration for Al2O3 nanofluids on heat transfer coefficient It is shown in Fig. 5 that the influence of Al2O3 nanoparticle volume concentration on the Nusselt number. Nusselt number increases with increasing volume fraction ratio. The increase in the Nusselt number is about 2.4 times with 4% volume fraction ratio over the water at Reynolds number of 70000. The particle volume fraction is one of the main factors affecting the Nusselt numbers of the nanofluids. 311 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 1050 Su Al2O3 0, 5% Al2O3 1% Al2O3 2% Al2O3 3% Al2O3 4% 950 Nusselt number 850 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Reynolds number Fig. 5. Effect of volume fraction ration for Al2O3 nanofluids on Nusselt number Heat transfer coefficient, h (W/m 2K) Fig. 6 shows heat transfer coefficient as a function of the Reynolds number for the different CuO nanoparticle volume concentrations. It is seen from Fig 6. that heat transfer coefficient increases with increasing volume fraction. 90000 Su CuO 0, 5% CuO 1% CuO 2% CuO 3% CuO 4% 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 20000 40000 60000 Reynolds number 80000 Fig.6. Effect of volume fraction ration for CuO nanofluids on heat transfer It is shown in Fig. 7 that the influence of CuO nanoparticle volume concentration on the Nusselt number. Nusselt number increases with increasing volume fraction ratio. The increase in the Nusselt number is about 3 times with 4% volume fraction ratio over the water at Reynolds number of 70000. The particle volume fraction is one of the main factors affecting the Nusselt numbers of the nanofluids. The heat transfer enhancement is achieved with CuO nanofluids more than Al2O3. It is because conductivity of CuO and heat transfer area for the same volume fraction ratio higher than Al2O3 nanoparticles. 312 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 1650 Su CuO 0, 5% CuO 1% CuO 2% CuO 3% CuO 4% Nusselt number 1450 1250 1050 850 650 450 250 50 0 20000 40000 60000 Reynolds number 80000 Fig. 7. Effect of volume fraction ration for CuO nanofluids on Nusselt number 3.3 Effect of nanoparticule volume concentration on the Friction factor The axial evolution of th local frictional coefficient is shown in Fig.8 and 9 for Al2O3 and CuO, respectively. As expected, the frictional coefficient decreases as the Reynolds number increases. It is shown from figures that the nanoparticles do not have a significant effect on its value. This observation is also confirmed by the result of Xuan and Li (2003). Fig. 8. Effect of Reynolds number on axial evolution of the local frictional coefficient for Al2O3 nanofluids 313 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Fig. 9. Effect of Reynolds number on axial evolution of the local frictional coefficient for CuO nanofluids Conclusion Turbulent heattransfer and friction factor characteristicsin a circulartube with nanofluids consisting of Al2 O3 and CuO of water were investigated numerically, by using two phase mixture model. Adding 4% nanaoparticules of Al2 O3 increasesthe Nusselt number more than 2 times and adding 4% nanaoparticules of CuO increases the Nusselt number more than 3 times. It does not have ant significant effect on the pressure drop penalty. Acknowledgements This work was supported by The Turkish Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK Project No. 105M292) and Ataturk University, Research Project Foundation (Project No. BAP2007/50). The Authors wish to thank to TUBITAK and Ataturk University. References Behzadmehr A., Saffar-Avval M. (2007). Galanis N. Prediction of turbulent forced convection of a nanofluid in a tuve with uniform heat flux using two phase approach, Int. J. Heat and Fluid Flow, 28 211-219. Fluent 6.3 user guide (2006). Fluent Inc., Lebanon, New Hampshire. Heris S. Z. , Etemad S.Gh. , Esfahany M. N. (2007). Experimental investigation of convective heat transfer of Al2O3/water nanofluid in circular tube, International Communications in Heat and Mass Transfer, 28 203–210. Hwang K. S. , Jang S. P. , Choi S. U.S. (2008). Flow and convective heat transfer characteristics of water-based Al2O3 nanofluids in fully developed laminar flow regime, International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, In Press, Corrected Proof, Incropera F.P. (2000). Isı ve Kütle Geçişinin Temelleri, Literatür Yayınları, Đstanbul. Launder, B.E., Spalding, D.B. (1972). Lectures in Mathematical Models of Turbulence. Academic Press, London, England. Manninen, M., Taivassalo, V., Kallio, S. (1996). On the Mixture Model for Multiphase Flow, VTT Publications 288. Technical Research Center of Finland. Miller, A., Gidaspow, D. (1992). Dense, vertical gas–solid flow in a pipe. AIChE J. 38 (11), 1801–1815. 314 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Nguyen C. T. , Roy G. Gauthier C. (2007). Heat transfer enhancement using Al2O3–water nanofluid for an electronic liquid cooling system, Nicolas Galanis Applied Thermal Engineering, 27 1501–1506, 2007. Patankar S.V. (1980). Numerical Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow, Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, New York, 1980. Schiller, L., Naumann, A.(1935). A drag coefficient correlation. Z. Ver.Deutsch. Ing. 77, 318–320. Wen D. , Ding Y. (2005). Formulation of nanofluids for natural convective heat transfer applications, International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow 26 (6) 855–864. White F.M. (1991).Viscous Fluid Flow, McGraw Hill, New York. Xuan Y. , Li Q. (2003). Investigation on convective heat transfer and flow features of nanofluids, Journal of Heat Transfer 125 151–155. 315 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 489 Title A name given to the resource Numerical Investigations of Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics of Water Based CuO and Al2O3 Nanofluids Using Two-Phase Mixture Model Author Author Sahin, Bayram Bölükbasi, Abdurahim Bedir, Özgür Çomakli, Ömer Abstract A summary of the resource. The development of high-performance thermal systems has increased interest in heat transfer enhancement techniques. The application of additives to heat transfer liquids is one of the noticeable effort to enhance heat transfer. The stable suspensions of nanoparticles (typically < 100 nm) in liquids are called nanofluids. In this study, heat transfer characteristics of two different nanofluids flowing through a circular tube under constant heat flux condition have been investigated numerically. Fluent 6.3 has been used this numerical study. Two-phase mixture model has been implemented two solve the problem. The comparison has been made between calculated and experimental results. The suspended nanosized particles enhance heat transfer and Nusselt numbers by comparing pure water at the same Reynolds numbers. Moreover, pressure drops for the nanofluids is approximately the same as that of pure water. The nanofluids containing CuO has showed bigger heat transfer enhancement than Al2O3 in all volume fraction rates. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/80121eb0f66731aa3e370f5826edd94e.pdf b927788610fede8d640432bdd55dcb0e PDF Text Text Bending Analysis of Timber Connection Strengthen with Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic Mehmet SARIBIYIK Department of Construction, Sakarya University, Adapazari, Turkey, mehmets@sakarya.edu.tr Tahir AKGUL, Department of Construction, Sakarya University, Adapazari, Turkey, takgul@sakarya.edu.tr Ahmet APAY Department of Construction, Sakarya University, Adapazari, Turkey, aapay@sakarya.edu.tr Ali SARIBIYIK Technical Higher School, Duzce University, Duzce, Turkey, alisaribiyik@hotmail.com Abstract: In order to obtain both durability and originality of the timber structures it is necessary to strengthen them particularly in the weak joint places. The aims of strengthen in the connecting places are to decrease the stress, to obtain fibre continuity, to reduce disadvantages of nail and bolts. Nowadays, Glass Fibre Reinforced Plastics, (GFRP) produced via pultrusion process that is one of fibre reinforced polymer types, are used for strengthen of the structural elements. In recently, it has been increased strengthen for timber structural elements by using GFRP because of its high strength, light weight, corrosion resistance and also very easily applying to the structures. The aim of this study is to obtain the fibre continuity of connecting places of timber structural elements of construction systems that under the bending conditions. Mechanical performances of the connecting places of fibre reinforced longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. Experimental specimens have been prepared from black pine timber which is very abundant in nature. To determine performances of the specimens, 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples, have been prepared. The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared each others. The outcomes demonstrate that the bending strength of the connection points strengthen with GFRP bar has higher than adhesively bonded connection specimen and this ratio is about 300 %. Key words: Timber Structures, Bending Strength, Longitudinal Notched Lap Joint, Glass Fibre Reinforced Plastic 1. Introduction In the continuing quest for improved performance of structural materials, scientists and engineers strive to produce either improved traditional or completely new materials. Composite materials are an example of the latter category. Within the past five decades there has been a rapid increase in the development of advanced composites incorporating fine fibres, termed fibre reinforced composites. These materials, depending on the matrix used, may be classified as a polymer, metal or ceramic matrix composites. The high cost of metal and ceramic matrix composite materials prevents their normal use in construction. The majority of composites used in the construction industry are therefore based on polymeric matrix materials. Additional factors in choosing polymeric composite materials for structural engineering applications are: the materials are lightweight, non-corrosive, chemically resistant, possess good fatigue strength, are non-magnetic, and, subject to the materials selected, can provide electrical and flame resistance. Material surfaces are also durable and require 43 �little maintenance (Extren, 1998). The construction industry appears to be gradually recognising the additional benefits offered by these materials. Timber has been extensively used in construction for many decades and has applied in many structural applications in engineering. It is a renewable resource, recyclable, relatively inexpensive, has a high strength to weight ratio and is architecturally attractive. However, wood, also has a number of disadvantages such as biological deterioration over time, dimensionally unstable in alternating environmental conditions and in flexural members it exhibits brittle tensile failures. A number of research studies have examined the option of reinforcing wooden flexural members with pultruded fibre reinforced plastic laminate, sheet and bar forms. Significant strength and stiffness increases in comparison with unreinforced members have been reported by a number of researchers (Fiorelli et al. 2003, Micelli 2005, Akgül et al. 2009). This technique can be easily and efficiently carried out and adds negligible depth and mass to the member that is being reinforced. Upgrading structures for higher working loads or restoring original design strength has been an engineering task for structures of any material. Before high strength fibre (HSF) were available, steel was mostly used for such purposes. The bonding of steel plates onto concrete was developed in the seventies. In the early eighties the steel plates were substituted by Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic (CRP). Today this is a well-established technique. It has been used successfully on approximately 400 structures world-wide as shown in Fig. 1. The main advantages of using CRP-laminates rather than the early steel plates, are their light weight and the corrosion resistance, as well as their flexibility, which allows their convenient and easy transport on rolls to the place of application. It was very tempting to use this material on timber structures as well. A considerable number of timber structures have already been reinforced successfully with CRP. Fig. 1. Restrengthening of bottom chords of the timber bridge (Steiger 1999) This paper aims to obtain the fibre continuity of connecting places of timber structural elements of construction systems that under the bending conditions. Mechanical performances of the connecting places of GFRP longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. Experimental specimens have been prepared from black pine timber which is very abundant in nature. To determine performances of the specimens, massive and 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples, have been prepared. The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared. 2. Material and Method 2.1. Timber Black Pine was the timber specimens used in the test program. The timber was all plain sawn and was harvested from the same stand. Consequently, variability in the wood resulting from contrasting environmental conditions during growth was significantly reduced. An important concern was the high juvenile wood percentage in the material and as a result increased dimensional instability present in the longitudinal direction. The timber was kiln dried in the sawmill to approximately 12±0.5 % moisture content and upon delivery to the laboratory. 2.2. Adhesive Teknobond 300 adhesive chemicals, capable of curing at room temperature and providing strong adherends, was used for bonding wood to wood as well as wood to FRP materials. This adhesive has very high adherence strength, it penetrates even very thin details due to low viscosity, it does not contain cavities, so it is not water 44 �permeable end it is used in places where we want electrical insulation. Teknobond 300 adhesive consists of two parts, a liquid resin A and a powerful hardener B. Mix the proportionally set A and B components with a low cycled drill until it takes homogenous grey colour. Mix materials in appropriate amount according to proportions of mixture by considering the material will be able to use. It should not be applied when the temperature is below than +5°C. The technical advice contained in the adhesive data sheets and that given by the manufacturers was followed closely during preparation of the test specimens. 2.3. Pultruded Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic The pultrusion process is a proven manufacturing method for obtaining lengths of high quality fibre reinforced plastic components having consistently repeatable cross-sections. Much improved mechanical properties can be obtained with this procedure due to higher fibre volume fractions than those achieved in labour intensive manual lay-up procedures. In this method, a continuous E-glass fibre reinforcement in the form of alternate layers of randomly oriented mat and layers of unidirectional roving bundles are pulled through a resin impregnator and then on through a heated die to form continuous prismatic members similar in geometry to those produced by the steel industry as seen Fig. 2 (Extren, 1998; Mallick, 1997). The pultrusion process allowed GFRP to become a competitive alternative to traditional structural materials (steel, concrete and wood). At the same time it provided a lower specific weight with respect to strength and good environmental resistance. Having resolved fundamental manufacturing constraints through the development of the pultrusion process, the mass adaptation of GFRP sections as secondary and primary load bearing elements have been used in a number of civil engineering applications. However; pultruded GFRP sections have not been applied as strengthen the timber structural element in the buildings. Therefore 7 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with pultruded GFRP bar samples of the black pine timber have been prepared and tested subjected to bending strength. Pultruded GFRP bars having a circle diameter of 0.45cm is, obtained from ESA Chemistry and Metal Industry, used in strengthening of the timber joint. Fig. 2. Examples of Pultruded GFRP profiles (Strongwell) 2.4. Preparation of Specimens The black pine timber specimens for the bending tests were 500 mm long and 30x40 mm dimensions. At the beginning, the prepared plain samples (without connection) have been tested to evaluate timber bending strength. In the second level, samples formed of two pieces having the same sizes with plain timber but combined with half-lap size in the middle are prepared (see Fig. 3). Subsequently, sawdust was completely removed, either GFRP bars were introduced in their place and, finally, GFRP materials were glued on the wood and the two pieces of wood were glued each other by using Teknobont 300 epoxy resins. After gluing, the specimens were kept under a press for a week at a temperature of about 20°C. After that the samples were cleaned and tested. 45 �Fig 3. Longitudinal notched lap joint configurations 3. Testing of Specimens Three point bending test have been applied as shown in Figs. 4 and 5. To determine performances of the specimens, have been prepared and tested according to the Turkish Standards (TS 647, TS 4499). The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared each others. The adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar sample types are named as; 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Massive Timber sample Connected timbers without reinforcement Connection with single GFRP bar under the samples Connection with double GFRP bars under the samples Connection with single GFRP bars under and top of the samples Connection with double GFRP bars under and single GFRP bars on the top of the samples Connection with double GFRP bars under and top of the samples Fig. 4. Three point bending test configurations Fig. 5. Bending test configuration of longitudinal notched lap joints 46 �4. Test Results The fibre continuity of connecting places of timber structural elements of construction systems and mechanical performances of the connecting places of fibre reinforced longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. To determine the performances of the connection specimens, 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples, have been tested and compared with massive timber and connection without reinforcement. The bending strength of the massive timber is found as 83.4 N/mm2. The connection sample without any strengthening is found as 16 N/mm2 as shown in Fig.6. This results demonstrated that the connection place needs an extra strengthen material to improve the bending strength of timber joints. The average outcomes of the timber connections bending strengths are given in Tab. 1. Tab.1. Mean value of connection bending analysis. Bending Strength (N/mm2) Samples Name Massive Timber sample 83.4 Connected timbers without reinforcement 16.0 Connection with single GFRP bar under the samples 40.9 Connection with double GFRP bars under the samples 60.3 Connection with single GFRP bars under and top of the samples 40.9 Connection with double GFRP bars under and single GFRP bars on the top of the samples 62.0 Connection with double GFRP bars under and top of the samples 61.6 90 80 Bending Strength (N/mm 2) 70 Massive Timber sample 60 50 40 30 20 10 Connected timbers without reinforcement 0 Fig. 6. Comparison of massive timber and connected samples without reinforcement To increase the performances of the connection specimens, 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples (see Fig. 7), have been tested and are compared with massive timber and connection without reinforcement. The average bending strength of the timbers strengthen with single GFRP bar under the specimen and connection with single GFRP bars under and top of the samples are found as 40.9 N/mm2. The outcomes showed that the strengthen of the connected timber is increased about 155% when compared with the adhesively bonded connection as shown in Fig. 8. The results showed that the GFRP bar on top of the specimens have no effect to the bending strength of the connection. 47 �Fig. 7. Configuration of timber connection strengthen with GFRP bar. 45 40 Connection with single GFRP bar under the samples 2 Bending Strength (N/mm ) 35 30 Connection with single GFRP bars under and top of the samples 25 20 15 10 5 Connected timbers without reinforcement 0 Fig. 8. Comparison of connected timbers without reinforcement with connection with single GFRP bar under and top of the connection To increase the performances of the connection strengthen with double GFRP bar under the specimen and connection with double GFRP bars under and top of the samples have been prepared and tested. The results demonstrate that the bending strength of the connected timber is increased about 287% when compared with the adhesively bonded connection as shown in Fig. 9. The results showed that the GFRP bar on top of the specimens have very little effect to the bending strength of the connection. 70 50 Connection with double GFRP bars under the samples 2 Bending Strength (N/mm ) 60 Connection with double GFRP bars under and top of the samples 40 30 20 10 Connected timbers without reinforcement 0 Fig 9. Comparison of connected timbers without reinforcement with Connection with double GFRP bars under and single GFRP bars on the top of the samples 48 �5. Conclusions and Recommendations Mechanical performances of the black pine timber connecting places of fiber reinforced longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared with massive timber specimens and each others. The experimental results showed as the use of GFRP bars seems to be effective strengthen materials when the timber beam subjected to bending. The outcomes demonstrate that the bending strength of the connection points strengthen with GFRP bar has higher than adhesively bonded connection about 300 %. The strengthen techniques of GFRP bars proved to be easy and fast to execute, even when on in-situ applications. Acknowledgements This work was carried out in the scope of the Sakarya University BAPK Project 2007-05-08-002 “Reinforcement of Timber Construction Elements Weak Region using Fiber Reinforced Plastic”. The financial support of the Sakarya University is gratefully acknowledged. 6. References Akgül T, Saribiyik M, Apay A., Reinforcement Of Timber Connection Areas With Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic, 5th International Advanced Technologies Symposium, 13-15 May 2009, Karabük, Turkey Extern Design Manuel., Copyright (1998) by Strongwell Corporat, Biristol Virginia, USA. Fiorelli J, Alves Dias A.(2003) Analysis of the strength and stiffness of timber beams reinforced with carbon fiber and glass fiber. Materials Research 2003; 6 (2): 193-202. Internet site, www.strongwell.com. Mallick P. K., (1997), Composite Engineering Handbook, Marcel Dekker, New York. Micelli F, Scialpi V, La Tegola A.(2005), Flexural Reinforcement of Glulam Timber Beams and Joints with Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Rods. J Composites for Construction 2005; 9 (4): 337–347 Steiger R., (1999). Wood handbook-Wood as an engineering material. Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL–GTR–113. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. Madison, WI: U.S. Steiger R., (2003), Fiber Reinforced Plastics (Frp) İn Timber Structures, Empa, Dübendorf, Switzerland, TS 647, Building Code for Timber Structures, Turkısh Standard, Ankara, 1979. TS 4499, Wood Joints- Terms and Definitions , Turkısh Standard, Ankara, 1985. 49 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 648 Title A name given to the resource Bending Analysis of Timber Connection Strengthen with Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic Author Author Sarıbıyık, Mehmet AKGUL, Tahir APAY, Ahmet Sarıbıyık, Ali Abstract A summary of the resource. In order to obtain both durability and originality of the timber structures it is necessary to strengthen them particularly in the weak joint places. The aims of strengthen in the connecting places are to decrease the stress, to obtain fibre continuity, to reduce disadvantages of nail and bolts. Nowadays, Glass Fibre Reinforced Plastics, (GFRP) produced via pultrusion process that is one of fibre reinforced polymer types, are used for strengthen of the structural elements. In recently, it has been increased strengthen for timber structural elements by using GFRP because of its high strength, light weight, corrosion resistance and also very easily applying to the structures. The aim of this study is to obtain the fibre continuity of connecting places of timber structural elements of construction systems that under the bending conditions. Mechanical performances of the connecting places of fibre reinforced longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. Experimental specimens have been prepared from black pine timber which is very abundant in nature. To determine performances of the specimens, 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples, have been prepared. The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared each others. The outcomes demonstrate that the bending strength of the connection points strengthen with GFRP bar has higher than adhesively bonded connection specimen and this ratio is about 300 %. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f8bbe84af70a440e89bb3408e36cc422.pdf 6caa2b473e22ea7a1820aaadde2689de PDF Text Text 1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Economic and Technical Analysis of Fresh Bean Cultivation in Turkey M urat Sayili Gaziosmanpasa University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics Tokat/ TURKEY, muratsayili@yahoo.com Hasan Akca Gaziosmanpasa University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics Tokat/ TURKEY, akcahasan@yahoo.com Oral Duzdemir Gaziosmanpasa University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Field Crops Tokat/ TURKEY, orald@gop.edu.tr Abstract: This study investigates socio-economic situation of fresh bean growers, inputs and outputs related to bean growing, production and marketing problems faced by farmers, etc. In addition, profitability of fresh bean production was determined. Data were collected from 86 farms located in Tokat province of Turkey via survey. It was carried out in SeptemberOctober 2008. Research shows that fresh bean cultivation is profitable. Selling price ranges from $0.6 to $1.5 kg-1.Fresh bean growers are open to innovation. Keywords: Fresh bean, economic and technical analysis, Turkey Introduction Bean is cultivated widelyin Turkey and consumed as fresh,freezed, canned and dried. According to 2007 data, production area, production amount and yield of green bean in Turkey were 60 000 ha, 499 298 tons, and 8 321.6 kg ha-1,respectively (FA O 2009). Tokat province was chosen as research area because it produces nearly 6.0% of Turkey’s fresh bean production. Production area was 2576 ha in Tokat province (Anonymous 2009). Literature review shows that many studies were carried outin agriculturalfaculties and research institutes established in different regions of Turkey but majority ofthem investigate relationships between yield and yield components, adaptation ability of genotypes, etc. Number ofstudies focus on economic analysis of fresh bean is very limited. Therefore,the aims of this study were to determine current situation and profitability of fresh bean production and problems faced by farmers. Material and Methods Data were collected from 86 farms located in Tokat province of Turkey via survey. Questionnaires were carried outin September-October 2008. The method of simplerandom sampling was used to determine farms to be surveyed (Dixon & Massey 1969): n= N .S 2 .t 2 (N − 1).E 2 + S 2 .t 2 W here, n is sample size, N is number of farm in the population, S is standard deviation,tis table value (1.86) at 95% significance level and 10% error, E is error. Production cost, yield, output price, gross-margin and net profit were calculated while analysing 57 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo profitability of fresh bean. Amount and price of both input and output were taken into consideration while analysing cost. Capital interest was accepted as half of credit interest for crops (13.13%) applied by TR Agricultural Bank (Gunes et al. 1988, Kiral et al. 1999). Administration cost was accepted as 3% of variable costs. Research Findings A mount of yield and type of agricultural applications can be changed due to having different and wide agro-ecologicalregion in the research area. Socio-economic characteristics Age categorises of bean growers are: less than 30 years old (18.60), between 31 and 40 years old (18.60%), between 41 and 50 years old (30.24%), 50 years and old (32.56%). Average age of farmers was 43.88 years old.Interms of education, majority(83.72%) ofthe bean growers was graduated from primary school. The ratio of fresh bean growers having secondary and high school were 6.98%, and 9.30%, respectively. Technical characteristics Fresh bean is generally grown as main crop in the research area. Only small percentage of producers grows it as second crop. Investigated farms have used commonly certified varieties (69.77%). More than half of them use new seeds every year.It means that growers are open to innovation in the subject of seed and aware of advantage of using certified seeds. Fresh bean growers get seed from different sources: Private sector (53.49%), Own Farms (41.86%), Branch of Ministry of Agriculture (16.28%), and Neighbour Farms (13.95%). Nearly 63% of the growers prefer dwarf types of fresh bean, 40% green bean-indeterminate, 16% kidney bean-indeterminate, and 2% kidney bean-dwarf. Average seed usage was calculated as 80.4 kg ha-1 for green bean-dwarf, 46.25 kg ha-1 for green bean-indeterminate,70.0 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-dwarf,and 60.0 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-indeterminate when fresh bean is sown as main crop. It was 81.8 kg ha-1 for green bean-dwarf, and 67.0 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-indeterminate when bean is grown as second crop. Average rainfall in Tokat province is about 400 mm for long years. Therefore, dry bean is generally irrigated in the area. Great Majority of the growers (97.67%) use surface irrigation system. Only 2.33% of the respondents used drip irrigation system. Farmers face some technical problems during the growing of fresh bean and also marketing problems after harvesting it. Problems faced by fresh bean growers can be summarised as: high input price (60.47%), not being organised under umbrella of producers union or cooperatives (58.14%), pest and diseases (48.84%), market uncertainty (46.51%), inadequate labour (23.26%), low output price (20.93%), spring frost hazard (16.28%),lack oftechnical knowledge (16.28%), and inadequate finance (9.30%). Growers selltheir productsin three ways:in cash (48.84%),forward sale (30.23%), mixed sale (20.93%). Economic analysis Total production cost was calculated as $11085.3 per ha for green bean-indeterminate, $7830.1 per ha for kidney bean-indeterminate, $4579.2 per ha for green bean-dwarf, $4375.4 per ha for kidney bean-dwarf. These are sown as main crop. On the other hand,total production cost waslower for green bean-dwarf($4285.5 per ha) and kidney bean-indeterminate ($3488.8 per ha) which were sown as second crop. Variable costs constitute great majority oftotal production costsin alltypes of fresh bean. Especiallytillage,seed,fertiliser and harvesting cost have the highest proportion within variable costs. Rent forland constitutes majority ofthe fixed costs (Table 1). Within the main crop,the highest and the lowest yields were obtained as 22087.0 kg ha-1 for green beanindeterminate and 12500.0 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-dwarf, respectively. On the other hand, within the second crop,the highest and lowest yields were calculated as 15930.6 kg ha-1 for green bean-dwarf and 10526.3 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-indeterminate (Table 2). 58 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Fresh bean growing had positive net profit for all types of production. Indeterminate green bean ($15419.1 per hectare) sown as main crop had three times net profitcompared to dwarf green bean ($4280.0 per hectare). Same result can be said for kidney bean sown as main crop. For main crop, cost-effectiveness was calculated as 2.48 for kidney bean-indeterminate ($1 cost for fresh bean production leadsto $2.48 income). On the other hand,for second crop, cost-effectiveness was calculated as 3.31 for kidney bean-indeterminate. Selling price ranges from $0.6 to $1.5 kg-1. For main crop,the highest selling price was determined as $1.5 kg-1 for kidney bean-indeterminate. For second crop,the highest price was $1.1 kg-1.The lowest selling price was $0.6 kg-1 for all dwarf bean types. Activities Tillage Cultivation Nursing * Fertilisation * Applying Pesticides * Irrigation * Hoeing Various Inputs * Seed * Fertiliser * Pesticides * Water Harvest Transportation Total(A) Capitalinterest (B=A*0,0656) Total Variable Cost (C=A+B) Rent forland (D) Administrative cost (E=C*0.03) Other cost (Tax, stake, etc.)(F) Total Fixed Cost (G=D+E+F) Total Production Cost (H=C+G) Activities Yield (kg ha-1) (A) Price of Bean ($ kg-1) (B) Gross Product Value ($ ha-1) (C=A*B) Main Crop Green Bean Kidney Bean D warf Indeterminate D warf Indeterminate 470.4 466.1 480.0 582.1 112.2 293.9 180.0 256.6 Second Crop Green Bean Kidney Bean D warf Indeterminate 335.1 466.6 100.8 101.0 17.0 21.1 31.4 239.9 110.2 101.6 84.2 601.2 60.0 90.0 210.0 240.0 84.4 48.6 76.2 376.0 15.0 21.6 35.6 290.4 12.6 12.6 6.3 124.2 632.6 347.3 165.8 235.4 997.6 107.6 3 378.3 382.6 520.8 348.9 103.0 3 673.0 595.7 7 281.2 560.0 326.0 200.0 280.0 600.0 20.0 3 246.0 537.9 378.5 263.2 135.2 1 586.2 351.8 4 676.7 590.8 294.9 179.4 278.4 930.6 42.6 3 115.2 517.0 227.4 85.2 273.7 703.4 4.2 2 534.2 221.6 477.7 212.9 306.8 204.4 166.2 3 599.9 859.4 7 758.9 1 168.6 3 458.9 800.0 4 983.5 1 158.6 3 319.6 854.9 2 700.4 635.8 108.0 232.8 103.8 149.5 99.6 81.0 11.9 1 925.0 12.7 1 538.5 11.4 71.6 979.3 3 326.4 916.5 2 846.6 965.9 788.4 4 579.2 11 085.3 4 375.4 7 830.1 4 285.5 Table 1: Total production costfor fresh bean growing ($ ha-1) 3 488.8 Main Crop Green Bean Kidney Bean D warf Indeterminate D warf Indeterminate Second Crop Green Bean Kidney Bean D warf Indeterminate 14 765.4 22 087.0 12 500.0 12 931.0 15 930.6 10 526.3 0.6 1.2 0.6 1.5 0.6 1.1 8 859.2 26 504.4 7 500.0 19 396.5 9 558.4 11 578.4 59 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Variable Cost ($ ha-1) (D) Production Cost ($ ha-1) (E) Gross-Margin ($ ha-1) (F=C–D) Net Profit ($ ha-1) (G=C-E) Cost-Effectiveness (H=C/E) 3 599.9 7 758.9 3 458.9 4 983.5 3 319.6 2 700.4 4 579.2 11 085.3 4 375.4 7 830.1 4 285.5 3 488.8 5 259.3 18 745.5 4 041.1 14 413.0 6 238.8 8 878.0 4 280.0 15 419.1 3 124.6 11 566.4 5 272.9 8 089.6 2.23 3.31 1.93 2.39 1.71 2.48 Table 2: Gross-margin and net profitfor fresh bean Conclusion and Recommendation • • • • • More than half ofthe fresh bean growers use certified seeds. They are open to innovation. Educationallevel of growers islow. This should be isolated via theoretical and applied training course. Fresh bean cultivation is profitable. Especially, green bean-indeterminate and kidney beanindeterminate had three times positive net profit,compared to green bean-dwarf and kidney bean-dwarf. Selling price ranges from $0.6 to $1.5 kg-1. If fresh bean producers were organised under umbrella of producer union, selling of fresh bean at desired price and increase income of bean growers could be achieved. Growers selltheir productsin three ways:in cash,forward sale, mixed sale.In orderto isolate negative effects of price fluctuations, growers should be informed about market structure or market boards should be established. References Anonymous (2009). Records of Tokat provincial directorate of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Turkey. Dixon, W.J., & Massey, F.J. (1969). Introduction to Statistical Analysis. Kogakasha: McGraw-Hill Book Company. FAO (2009). Statistical database (www.fao.org). Gunes, T., Kiral, T., Arikan, R., Bulbul, M., Cetin, B., Tatlidil, F., Albayrak, N., Meshur, M., & Celen H. (1988). Baslica Tarim Urunleri Maliyetleri Arastirma Projesi II. TMO Aklasan Matbaasi, Ankara-Turkey. Kiral, T., Kasnakoglu, H., Tatlidil, F., Fidan, H., & Gundogmus, E. (1999). Methodology for Revenue and Cost Calculation for Agricultural Products and Data Base Guideline. AERI Project Report 1999-13, Ankara-Turkey. 60 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 472 Title A name given to the resource Economic and Technical Analysis of Fresh Bean Cultivation in Turkey Author Author Sayili, Murat Akca, Hasan Duzdemir, Oral Abstract A summary of the resource. This study investigates socio-economic situation of fresh bean growers, inputs and outputs related to bean growing, production and marketing problems faced by farmers, etc. In addition, profitability of fresh bean production was determined. Data were collected from 86 farms located in Tokat province of Turkey via survey. It was carried out in September- October 2008. Research shows that fresh bean cultivation is profitable. Selling price ranges from $0.6 to $1.5 kg-1. Fresh bean growers are open to innovation Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General)