318 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/856d0c9e6b2db90fd548ea87579588e8.pdf 5a083a4bfbb9b3fb8bea4dbde52f7ec9 PDF Text Text UVODNA RIJEČ GLAVNOG UREDNIKA Poštovani čitaoci, Pred Vama se nalazi treći broj časopisa „Društveni ogledi“. Sa osnovnom namjerom unaprjeđenja naučno-istraživačkog rada u oblasti pravnih i drugih srodnih društvenih nauka, časopis je za kratko vrijeme postao respektabilan i privlačan širokom krugu istraživača i naučnika u BiH i inozemstvu. U skladu sa željom da časopis „Društveni ogledi“ postane jedan od vodećih naučnih publikacija u BiH, uredništvo časopisa je od samog početka konstantno poduzimalo korake ka njegovom unaprjeđenju i međunarodnom indeksiranju. Posljedica tog rada se ogleda u indeksiranju časopisa u nekoliko međunarodno priznatih baza podataka. Treći broj časopisa nam predstavlja naučne radove istaknutih akademskih i stručnih radnika na različitim poljima pravne nauke. Također, pružen je prikaz međunarodne naučno-stručne konferencije „Izgradnja modernog pravnog sistema“, a čiji su istaknuti učesnici objavili svoje radove u ovom izdanju. Na kraju, želim se toplo zahvaliti kolegama sa pravnih fakulteta iz Bosne i Hercegovine, a posebnu zahvalnost izražavam mladim kolegama Centra za društvena istraživanja, organizatoru cjelokupnog projekta. Glavni urednik Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj 1 7 �FOREWORD BY CHIEF EDITOR Respected Readers, It is great pleasure to introduce the third issue of the journal „Social Perspectives“. With the main idea of scientific research advancing in the field of legal and other related social sciences, the journal has quickly become respectable and attractive to a wide circle of researchers and scientists in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as abroad. In accordance with the desire for „Social Perspectives“ to become one of the leading scientific publications in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Editorial board of the journal was, from the very beginning, constantly taking steps towards its development and international indexing. Consequently, the journal has found itself in many internationally recognized legal databases. In this Issue, you will find scientific works of distinguished professors and practitioners from a different fields of legal science. Also, review of the Scientific International Conference: „Establishment of a Modern Legal System“ is presented in the end. Participants at the Conference also published their works in this issue. Ultimately, I want to express my gratitude to colleagues from law schools in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and special thanks to colleagues from Social Sciences Research Center, organizers of the whole project. Editor-in-chief Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić 8 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2984 Title A name given to the resource UVODNA RIJEČ GLAVNOG UREDNIKA br.3 Author Author BIKIĆ, Abedin Abstract A summary of the resource. Poštovani čitaoci, Pred Vama se nalazi treći broj časopisa „Društveni ogledi“. Sa osnovnom namjerom unaprjeđenja naučno-istraživačkog rada u oblasti pravnih i drugih srodnih društvenih nauka, časopis je za kratko vrijeme postao respektabilan i privlačan širokom krugu istraživača i naučnika u BiH i inozemstvu. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Centar za društvena istraživanja Internacionalnog Burc univerziteta Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-6281 H Social Sciences (General),K Law (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8204b538dea7485f8ab549d80ae17b37.pdf 1e020014782c667e96a020d4056934b7 PDF Text Text IZVORNI NAUČNI RAD Položaj cesusa kod cesije Position of the Assignor in the Cession Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić Pravni fakultet Univerziteta u Sarajevu, redovni profesor e-mail: a.bikic@pfsa.unsa.ba Sažetak: Cesija je ugovor između cedenta i cesionara kojim, cedent na cesionara prenosi (ustupa) potraživanje koje on ima prema dužniku (cesusu). Kod cesije cesus (dužnik) nije ugovorna strana i zbog toga potrebno je omogućiti mu određenu pravnu zaštitu. Naše, njemačko i austrijsko pravo štiti savjesnog dužnika i to tako što mu dozvoljava isticanje cesionaru određenih prigovora. Naime, dužnik ako nije obaviješten o cesiji on nema saznanja o novom povjeriocu, te ako je poslije cesije ispunio obvezu cedentu može cesionaru istaći prigovor da je on već ispunio obavezu onom povjeriocu za kojeg je imao saznanja da je njegov povjerilac. Isto tako i kod višestruke cesije dužnik može istaći prigovor da je ispunio obavezu onom povjeriocu za kojeg je imao saznanja da je njegov povjerilac. Izuzev navedenih prigovora dužniku stoje i svi drugi objektivni ili subjektivni prigovori koji služe zaštiti njegovog položaja, a to se prije svega odnosi na mogućnost prebijanja svog potraživanja s ustupljenim potraživanjem. Odredbe Zakona koje se odnose na zaštitu dužnika su dispozitivne prirode i od samog dužnika zavisi da li će se na njih pozvati ili ne. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 Ključne riječi: Cesija, cedent, cesionar, cesus, zaštita savjesnog dužnika, predmet ustupanja, zabrana ustupanja, sporedna prava, prigovori dužnika zbog neobavještenja o cesiji, višestruko ustupanje, prebijanje potraživanja (kompenzacija), objektivni i subjektivni prigovori. JEL klasifikacija: K12 http://dx.doi.org/ 10.14706/DO15213 Historija članka Dostavljen: 23.09.2014. Recenziran: 31.10.2014. Prihvaćen: 26.01.2015 59 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić Abstract: Cession is a contract between assignor and assignee by whom assignor cede its demands towards debtor (cesus). In cession, debtor is not a party, so it is necessary enable it legal protection. Ours, German and Austrian law protects conscientious debtors by enabling it to state certain objection. Namely, if the debtor has not been informed about the assignment he has no information about the new creditor, and if he fulfilled obligation towards asignee afterwards, he can state an abjection that he had already fulfill obligations towards the creditor for whom he had known that he was its creditor. Keywords: Cession, transferor, assignee, protection of conscientious debtor, ceding prohibition, secondary rights, objections debtors due non informing on assignment, multiple assignment (multiple cession), offsetting claims (compensation), objective and subjective complaints. Similarly, in case of multiple cessions, debtor can state a claim that he had fulfilled obligation towards the creditor for whom he had known that it was his creditor. Except mentioned objections to the debtor are all other objective or subjective objections intended to protect it stance, which is primarily related to the right for offsetting for ceded claims. The provisions of the Act relating to the protection of the debtor are dispositive nature of the debtor and its about it whether you will invite them or not. Article History Submitted: 23.09.2014. Resubmited: 31.10.2014. Accepted: 26.01.2015. 60 JEL Classification: K12 http://dx.doi.org/ 10.14706/DO15213 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije 1. Pojam cesije Cesija je ugovor između starog i novog povjerioca, kojim stari povjerilac prenosi poptraživanje koje on ima prema dužniku na novog povjerioca. Stari se povjerilac naziva cedent, a novi povjerilac cesionar. U Zakonu o obveznim odnosima cedent se naziva i ustupiocem, a cesionar prijemnik. Dužnik se zove cesus. Obzirom da je uobičajeno da se stari povjerilac označava kao cedent, novi kao cesionar, a dužnik kao cesus, i mi ćemo se u daljnjem izlaganju služiti tim nazivima. Da bi se potraživanje ustupilo pravnim poslom, potrebno je zaključiti ugovor između cedenta i cesionara. Premda povjerilac može slobodno raspolagati svojim potraživanjem, njegova jednostrana izjava volje nije dovoljna da bi se izvršio prijenos tog potraživnja. Pošto se potraživanje prenosi ugovorom, za taj ugovor važe opća pravila zaključenja ugovora koja se odnose i na druge ugovore. Ugovorne su strane u cesiji cedent i cesionar i potrebna je samo njihova saglasnost. Cedent raspolaže svojim potraživanjem u korist cesionara. Zašto cedent prenosi potraživanje na cesionara nije bitno za valjanost cesije. Cedent najčešće potraživanje prodaje (venditionis causa). Svoje potraživanje cedent može prodati i za manji iznos od stvarne vrijednosti, ali će cesionar, usprkos tome, steći pravo da od dužnika zahtijeva cjelokupan iznos duga. Ako cedent ispunjava svoju obvezu prema cesionaru iz nekog njihovog prijašnjeg odnosa, postoji solvendi causa. O donandi causa govori se u onim slučajevima u kojima cedent cesionaru poklanja svoje potraživanje.1 Kod cesije dužnik nije ugovorna strana i njegova saglasnost na ustupanje potraživanja nije potrebna. Dužnik mora ispuniti svoju obvezu onako i na onaj način kako je ta obveza postojala prije cesije. Izvršenom se cesijom njegov položaj ne mijenja i cesijom dužnik (cesus) ne može doći u lošiji položaj od onog u kojem je on bio prije cesije. Ne samo da za valjanost cesije nije potrebna dužnikova saglasnost nego ni obavještenje o izvršenoj cesiji nije uvjet valjanosti ustupljenog potraživanja. Istina, učinak se cesije proteže na dužnika tek od momenta njegovog obavještenja o cesiji, ali cesija postoji i valjana je i bez obavještenja dužnika o njoj. Ovakvo stajalište zauzela je i sudska praksa na području novonastalih država bivše Jugoslavije.2 1 Više o tome, A. Bikić, Obligaciono pravo – Opći dio, Sarajevo, 2013., str. 314. i dalje. Tako je prema Odluci Privrednog suda Hrvatske, Pž-3105/93 od 14. prosinca 1993. godine, navedeno da obavještenje dužnika o ustupanju nije bitno za pravovaljanost ugovora o cesiji, nego je 2 Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 61 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić Saglasnost bi dužnika bila potrebna samo kod ustupanja potraživanja čiju su zabranu ustupanja ugovorom predvidjeli cedent i dužnik. Naime, prema odredbi čl. 436. st. 2. ZOO ugovor o ustupanju neće imati učinka prema dužniku ukoliko su se dužnik i cedent dogovorili da se ne može prenijeti potraživanje bez dužnikovog pristanka. U tim slučajevima, gdje postoji ugovorna zabrana ustupanja potraživanja, ako se želi da cesija djeluje i prema dužniku, potreban je i njegov pristanak. Naravno, ugovorne strane moraju voditi računa o tome da potraživanje koje se ustupa nije obuhvaćeno zakonskom zabranom ustupanja iz čl. 436. st. 1. ZOO. U njemačkom pravu cesija je regulirana u Građanskom zakoniku, u §§ 398413, a određena je kao ugovor između cedenta i cesionara, kojim cedent prenosi svoje potraživanje na cesionara.4 Cesija je apstraktan pravni posao, koji često za osnovu ima kauzalan pravni posao.5 Međutim, ukoliko je kauzalan pravni posao ništav, ustupanje kao apstraktan pravni posao i dalje važi. U ovom bi slučaju cedent imao pravo tražiti povrat zbog neosnovanog obogaćenja, a na temelju § 812 BGB-a. Cesija ima posebno veliki značaj u privrednom životu,6 gdje se zbog brzine prometa često ugovara da kupac umjesto isplate cijene prodavcu ustupi neko svoje potraživanje, koje bi eventualno prodavac mogao prebiti s nekom svojom obvezom 3 bitno za sadržaj pravnog odnosa između dužnika i ustupioca (cedenta). Odluka objavljena u Praxis iuridica mercatoria, Zagreb, 1994., broj 2, str. 45., odluka br. 21. 3 Građanski zakonik (BGB – Bürgerliches Gesetzbuch) prva je kodifikacija građanskog prava u tadašnjem njemačkom carstvu. Ujedinjenje velikog broja malih njemačkih država u njemačko carstvo (Reich) godine 1871. otvorilo je put jedinstvenoj građanskoj kodifikaciji. Različite komisije radile su na izradi Zakonika od 1873. godine, sve do 18. kolovoza 1896. godine, kad je i usvojen, a BGB je stupio na snagu prvog dana dvadesetog stoljeća, tj. 1. siječnja 1900. godine. Osnovni cilj BGB-a nije bio stvoriti novo građansko pravo, nego više postojeću rascjepkanu pravnu regulativu na području ujedinjene Njemačke napraviti jedinstvenom za čitavu državu. BGB sadrži, kako elemente rimskog, tako i elemente tradicionalnog njemačkog prava. Rimsko pravo je našlo svoju primjenu prije svega u prve dvije knjige BGB-a. Njemačko pravo, koje je više bilo običajno i nastalo u srednjem vijeku, došlo je do izražaja u preostale tri knjige. Na prvi pogled da se primijetiti da je BGB proizvod pandektista, tj. pandektne nauke. Jezik je staromodan, rečenice komplicirane, a pojmovi apstraktni. Laik teško može razumjeti odredbe Zakonika, za kojeg se može reći da nije pisan za građane, nego je pravljen od pravnika za pravnike. Podijeljen je u pet knjiga: opći dio, obligaciono, stvarno, porodično i nasljedno pravo. Tijekom njegovog trajanja BGB je pretrpio više izmjena, a posljednje su stupile na snagu 1. siječnja 2002. godine. Tim izmjenama nisu mijenjane odredbe o cesiji.Vidjeti šire: Bähr P., Grundzüge des bürgerlichen Rechts, 9. Auflage, München, 1995., str. 22. i Brox H., Allgemeiner Teil des BGB, Köln/Berlin 1983, Rn. 41 i dalje. 4 Larenz K., Lehrbuch des Schuldrechts, Band I, München, 1987., § 34, str. 575. 5 Sörgel H./Siebert T. – Bearbeiter Zeiss, Bürgerliches Gesetzbuch, Stuttgart/Berlin/Köln, Band 2, 1990., § 398 Rn. 12. 6 Brox H., Allgemeines Schuldrecht, München, 1992., Rn. 383. 62 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije koju on ima prema dužniku. Također je čest slučaj da povjerilac, kojem je potreban gotov novac, neko svoje nedospjelo potraživanje prema dužniku ustupi cesionaru uz nižu cijenu. U austrijskom pravu cesija je regulirana u §§ 1392 – 1399 Građanskog zakonika,7 Prijenos potraživanja (cesija), u smislu § 1392 ABGB, jest ustupanje prava putem ugovora između cedenta i cesionara. Ustupanje potraživanja je konsenzualan pravni posao, čiji učinci nastupaju samom saglasnošću volja cedenta i cesionara. Za zaključenje ugovora nije potrebna dužnikova saglasnost. Prema § 1395 ABGB dužnik može platiti starom povjeriocu i tako se osloboditi svoje obveze, ukoliko nije znao za cesiju. Isto tako, on se s njim može dogovoriti o poravnanju ili zaključiti drugi pravni posao sa oslobađajućim učinkom prema dužniku ukoliko dužnik nema saznanja o cesiji. Predmet je cesije ustupanje povjeriočevog položaja s cedenta na cesionara. Nakon izvršene cesije cesionar postaje imalac zahtjeva, odnosno prava protiv dužnika, a cedent to svoje preneseno pravo ne može više potraživati od dužnika.8 Cesija može biti s naknadom, ali i bez nje, a to potvrđuje i sudska praksa.9 Ugovor o ustupanju je kauzalan pravni posao i kao takav pretpostavlja postojanje jednog valjanog osnovnog pravnog posla. Ukoliko bi nedostajao osnovni pravni posao, ugovor o ustupanju bio bi ništav. Iz ovoga proizlazi da cedent mora navesti iz kojeg osnovnog pravnog posla on ustupa svoje potraživanje, jer u protivnom dužnik ne bi mogao isticati prigovore prema cesionaru.10 Kupoprodaja se najčešće javlja kao pravni osnov cesije, ali to može biti i ugovor o poklonu, nalogu ili drugi pravni poslovi. Ugovor o cesiji je neformalan pravni posao, u čemu se slažu i teorija11 i sudska praksa.12 Od tog pravila postoji izuzetak, i to u slučaju kad je za 7 Ovaj zakonik u našoj pravnoj literaturi naziva se i Opći građanski zakonik. Zakonik je objavljen kraljevskim patentom 1. lipnja 1811. godine. Puni naziv ovog zakonika je Allgemeines bürgerliches Gesetzbuch (ABGB), što bi u doslovnom prevodu bi značilo Opći građanski zakonik (OGZ). U našoj literaturi pojavljuje se i pod nazivom Austrijski građanski zakonik (AGZ). Zakonik je stupio na snagu 1. siječnja 1812. godine i sačuvao je svoju izvornost sve do Prvog svjetskog rata, kada su pod utjecajem Njemačkog građanskog zakonika (BGB) izvršene promjene. Promjene su izvršene u tri navrata i to novelama iz 1914., 1915. i 1916. godine. 8 Praxiskommentar zum ABGB, herausgegeben von Prof. Dr. Michael Schwimann, bearbeitet von Dr. Heinrich Honsell (u daljnjem tekstu citat kao: Schwimann/Honsell), Wien, 1997., § 1392 Rn. 2. 9 Vidjeti: Entscheidungen des Obersten Gerichtshofes in Zivilsachen (u daljnjem tekstu: Odluka Vrhovnog suda), Bd 64, Nummer 178. 10 Više o tome: Kommentar zum Allgemeinem bürgerlichen Gesetzbuch, Hrsg. von Peter Rummel/ bearb. von Günter Ertl (u daljem tekstu: Rummel/Ertl), 2. Band, Wien 1992, § 1392, str. 930 i dalje. 11 Vidi npr. Kommentar zum ABGB, Rummel/Ertl, op. cit., § 1392, str. 931. 12 Odluka Vrhovnog suda 1952/176; kao i 1962/32. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 63 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić osnovni posao predviđena forma kao bitan element. Kad je osnova cesije pravni posao za koji se zahtijeva pismena forma tada i cesija mora biti u pismenoj formi. To će biti primjerice u slučaju kad je osnov cesije obećanje poklona, a predmet nije predat.13 Od ugovornog prijenosa potraživanja (ugovorne cesije) moramo razlikovati zakonsku cesiju, koja ima oblik regresa. U zakonskoj cesiji prijelaz potraživanja ostvaruje se bez posebnog akta stranaka, na temelju zakona. Najvažniji slučajevi zakonske cesije u našem pravu određeni su u čl. 300. ZOO, u njemačkom u §§ 412 i 413 BGB, a u austrijskom u § 1358 ABGB. Pored zakonske cesije, sva tri prava poznaju i nužnu cesiju. Nužna cesija ne nastaje izravno po sili zakona, nego se na nju cesionar mora pozvati. To bi bio slučaj kad jedna osoba ispuni obvezu druge osobe i na taj način stupi na mjesto povjerioca. Tako je prema jednoj odluci austrijskog suda14 dano za pravo osobi koja je iznajmila stan zajedno s drugom osobom, da od druge potražuje polovicu stanarine iako je samo prva zaključila ugovor sa stanodavcem, ali su obje osobe stan zajednički koristile. 2. Cesija u rimskom pravu Historijski promatrano, u rimskom pravu nije bila poznata cesija u današnjem obliku, jer je obveza dugo vremena shvaćana kao osobni odnos između povjerioca i dužnika. Jednom uspostavljen obvezni odnos najčešće je i prestajao između tačno određenih osoba. U rano doba rimskog prava stranke su se umjesto cesijom, koju u to vrijeme rimsko pravo nije poznavalo, koristile novacijom. Naime, povjerilac bi pozvao svog dužnika i naložio mu (delegirao) da se on drugom obveže na istu činidbu koju je on do tada dugovao povjeriocu.15 U tom slučaju mijenja se i sam obligacioni odnos tako da ovdje ne možemo govoriti o cesiji. Tijekom vremena ostvaren je napredak glede ustupanja potraživanja, i to u formlanom postupku na osnovi procesualnog zastupanja. U tom postupku osoba na koju je trebalo prijeći potraživanje tužila bi dužnika, i to kao povjeriočev zastupnik, tako da bi pomoću pretorske formule, tj. tzv. tužbom s promijenjenim subjektima ishodila presudu na svoje ime. Stari povjerilac davao je nalog novom povjeriocu, koji je radio u svom interesu (procurator in rem suam), da dužnika tuži i potraživanje 13 Vidi § 943 ABGB. Odluka Vrhovnog suda Bd 45/16. 15 Ante Romac, Rimsko pravo, Zagreb, 1987., str. 251. 14 64 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije naplati za sebe. Ovdje se ne radi o cesiji potraživanja nego o cesiji tužbe, tako da zastupnik (cesionar) mora tužiti u ime povjerioca (cedenta).16 Ovaj je postupak imao nedostatke, jer je povjerilac do početka toka parnice (litiscontestatio) mogao opozvati mandat.17 Također bi mandat prestao smrću jedne ili druge strane. Opasnost se sastojala u tome što je cedent do početka parnice još uvijek bio povjerilac, te mu je dužnik mogao platiti dug ili s njim sklopiti poravnanje i na taj način izigrati cesionara. Da bi se izbjegli nedostaci mandata i pojednostavio pravni promet počela se od kraja 2. stoljeća n.e., u vremenu Antonija Pija, cesionaru davati mogućnost samostalnog utuženja tražbine putem actio utilis. Tom je tužbom omogućeno novom povjeriocu da dužnika izravno tuži, iako s njim nije bio u ugovornom odnosu. Primjerice, ako je neko kupio cjelokupnu zaostavštinu od nasljednika, to znači da je kupio i potraživanja koja ulaze u tu zaostavštinu. Pomoću actio utilis novi je povjerilac mogao spriječiti druge osobe da naplate to potraživanje, a tužbeni je zahtjev prelazio i na nasljednike. Nadalje, da bi se zaštitio cesionar, u postklasično je doba uveden institut obavještavanja dužnika (denuntiatio). Zapravo, pošto je dužnik obaviješten o cesiji, nije više mogao dug isplatiti cedentu. U Justinijanovom pravu stvoren je potpun praktični učinak cesije, zahvaljujući actio utilis i denuncijaciji, premda teoretski institut cesije nije bio izgrađen. Cesija je, kao prijenos potraživanja, apstraktan pravni posao. Pravni razlog (causa) nije bitan za ustupljenog dužnika (debitor cessus). Za njega je mjerodavan samo akt cesije i denuncijacija, tj. obavještenje o ustupljenom potraživanju. Pravni je razlog bitan samo interno između cedenta i cesionara. Primjerice, ukoliko je motiv cesije bio poklon, cedent je odgovarao samo za dolus (umišljaj), a tek kasnije i za culpa lata (gruba nepažnja). U ostalim slučajevima cedent odgovara za veritet (postojanje), ali ne i za bonitet (naplativost potraživanja).18 Potraživanje je cesionar stjecao u istom obimu i s istim pravima kao što ih je imao cedent, a cesus je mogao cesionaru isticati sve prigovore koje je imao i protiv cedenta. 16 Dragomir Stojčević, Rimsko obligaciono pravo, Beograd, 1960., str. 18. Bertold Eisner i Marijan Horvat, Rimsko pravo, Zagreb, 1948., str. 377. 18 Više o tome: Ante Romac, op. cit., str. 252.; B. Eisner i M. Horvat, op. cit., str. 378. 17 Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 65 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić U klasično doba nije bila rijetkost da se cesija zloupotrijebi, i to posebno od bogatih na štetu siromašnih. Bogati ljudi (potentiores) iskorištavali su financijske poteškoće sitnih povjerilaca (humiliores) i od njih kupovali njihova potraživanja. Slično su radili odvjetnici i drugi službenici.19 Da bi to spriječio, car je Anastazije 506. godine donio propis u skladu s kojim je cesionar koji je potraživanje stekao kupovinom mogao od dužnika zahtijevati samo onoliko koliko je i sam platio. To je jedan od izuzetaka, gdje pravni razlog cesije ipak djeluje i prema dužniku. Također je bilo zabranjeno ustupati potraživanje u svezi s kojim već teče parnica. 3. Predmet cesije Kad se radi o predmetu ustupanja, potrebno je reći da sva tri zakonodavstva određuju da se mogu ustupiti sva potraživanja i prenosivost potraživanja se pretpostavlja, a zabrana prijenosa je izuzetak. Zakon o obveznim odnosima zabranu ustupanja potraživanja regulira u čl. 436 st. 1. i to tako što određuje da se ne mogu ustupiti ona potraživanja čiji je prijenos zabranjen zakonom ili koje je vezano za ličnost vjerovnika, ili koje se po svojoj prirodi protivi prenošenju na drugoga. Slična ograničenja predviđena su i u njemačkom20 i austrijskom21 pravu. Za njemačku je pravnu teoriju22 i sudsku praksu23 nesporno da predmet ustupanja mogu biti i buduća i uvjetna potraživanja. Predmet su ustupanja najčešće novčana potraživanja, ali nema smetnje da se ugovori i ustupanje robnog potraživanja. Shvaćanje da je robno potraživanje moguće ustupiti isto kao i novčano ima potvrdu i u sudskoj praksi.24 19 Vidjeti: Maier, G. H., Zur Geschichte der Zession, Festschrift Rabel II, 1954., str. 506. i dalje. Vidi §§ 399 i 400 BGB. 21 Vidi § 1393 ABGB. 22 Vidjeti npr. Münchener Kommentar zum BGB/G. Roth, München, 1994., § 398, margina 60, kao i Karl Larenz, op. cit., str. 445. 23 Vidi Odluku BGH (Bundesgerichtshof) objavljena u NJW 1967., 751. Ovom odlukom Njemački je savezni sud odlučio da je valjana cesija, kojom je cedent ustupio cesionaru dio cijene od prodaje pšenice koja će uslijediti za dva mjeseca nepoznatom kupcu. 24 Vidi Odluku Višeg privrednog suda u Zagrebu, Sl. 2195/76 od 9. XI 1976. godine. Sud je zauzeo stanovište da vjerovnik svoje robno potraživanje prema dužniku može ustupiti trećoj osobi, i to tako da toj trećoj osobi (cesionaru) preda robne bonove koje je izdao dužnik, a glase na donosioca i ovlašćuju donosioca da preuzme robu određene vrijednosti, vrste i količine. 20 66 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije U austrijskom su pravu sva otuđiva prava, u principu, prenosiva.25 Ovakva nejasna formulacija u zakonu dobila je svoju pravu primjenu tek u sudskoj praksi. Tako je u jednoj odluci Vrhovnog suda26 rečeno da se “otuđiva prava” imaju tumačiti u užem smislu. Samo potraživanja i zahtjevi su prenosivi, tj. relativna prava ili kako se to navodi u citiranoj odluci obligaciona prava.27 Stvarna prava, kod kojih za prijenos važe posebna pravila, ne mogu se prenositi. U austrijskoj je pravnoj literaturi sporno može li se jedno potraživanje prenijeti ukoliko su same strane ugovorom jedno takvo ustupanje isključile. Prema jednom mišljenju, takav dogovor bi imao samo relativan karakter, tj. djelovao bi samo između tih ugovornih strana. Naime, cesionar bi, prema tome mišljenju, postajao imalac prava, odnosno bio bi novi povjerilac. Cesus bi svoju obvezu morao izvršiti cesionaru, a moguću štetu koju bi pretrpio imao bi pravo zahtijevati od cedenta.28 Prema drugom prevlađujućem mišljenju29 ugovorna zabrana prijenosa potraživanja djeluje apsolutno. Ovo drugo stajalište potvrđeno je i u sudskoj praksi.30 Sporedna prava, koja služe kao sredstva osiguranja glavnog potraživanja, ne mogu se odvojiti od glavnog potraživanja i kao takva sa izvršenom cesijom i ona prelaze na cesionara.31 U sporedna prava spadaju prije svega jamstvo i zaloga, zatim kamate, kao i ugovorna kazna. Pored već postojećih potraživanja, austrijsko pravo dopušta i ustupanje budućih potraživanja. Ova potraživanja moraju biti određena. Treba li pri tome biti poznat i dužnik različita su mišljenja. Kod ovog pitanja ni sudska praksa nije jedinstvena. Jedanput sud stoji na stajalištu da bi dužnik morao biti poznat,32 a drugi put da dužnik ne mora biti poznat.33 Novija pravna doktrina34 zauzima stajalište da dužnik mora biti određen. Isto tako pravna osnova cesije mora biti određena ili odrediva, dok visina ustupljenog potraživanja, u momentu cesije, ne mora biti poznata. 25 § 1393 ABGB. Objavljena u EvBl 1980/140. 27 U odluci Vrhovnog suda Bd 41/115 sud je našao da je zahtjev za odmor u prirodi jedan čisto osobni zahtjev i kao takav se ne može ustupiti, ali zahtjev za naknadu štete iz odnosa nastalog prigodom odmora je prenosiv. 28 Vidjeti: Rummel/Ertl, Kommentar zum ABGB, op. cit., § 1393, Rn. 9. 29 Pored ostalih, vidjeti: Franz Gschnitzer/Christoph Faistenberger, Österreichisches Schuldrecht Allgemeiner Teil, 2. neubear. Auflage, Wien 1986., str. 185. 30 Vidjeti odluku Vrhovnog suda Bd 41/16; kao i 57/8. 31 Bliže: Schwimann/Honsell, Praxiskommentar zum ABGB, op. cit., str. 484. i dalje, § 1393 Rn. 13. 32 Odluka Vrhovnog suda od 8. 5. 1968., Bd 41/57; kao i Bd 51/38 od 4.4. 1978. godine. 33 Odluka Vrhovnog suda od 31.7. 1968., objavljena u EvBl 1969/15. 34 Npr. Schwimann/Honsell, Praxiskommentar zum ABGB, op. cit., § 1393, Rn 27. 26 Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 67 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić Cesijom se ne ostvaruje nikakva promjena sadržaja potraživanja. Dužnik dobija novog povjerioca, kojem može isticati sve one prigovore što ih je imao prema starom povjeriocu. Prema § 1394 ABGB prava cesionara, u pogledu ustupljenog potraživanja, su ista kakva je imao cedent. Ova se odredba najčešće dovodi u vezu s § 442 ABGB, gdje se kaže da niko ne može prenijeti više prava nego što sam ima. Pošto kod cesije dužnik nije ugovorna strana, to se dovođenjem gornjih odredbi u vezu želi osigurati osnovno načelo zaštite dužnika, a to je da se izvršenom cesijom njegov položaj ne smije pogoršati. Sudska je praksa također zauzela stajalište da se položaj dužnika nakon cesije ne može pogoršati.35 Zabrana pogoršanja položaja dužnika nakon cesije odnosi se samo na njegov pravni položaj, ali ne i na njegovo ekonomsko stanje, ukoliko bi on zakasnio s ispunjenjem svoje obaveze. Dužnik je obvezu dužan ispuniti onako kako ona glasi.36 4. Prigovori dužnika kao njegova zaštita kod cesije U ugovornoj cesiji dužnik nije ugovorna strana i ne može utjecati na sadržaj ugovora, te mu je potrebno omogućiti isticanje određenih prigovora koji služe njegovoj zaštiti. U tom smislu ZOO, BGB i ABGB omogućavaju dužniku isticanje novom povjeriocu (cesionaru) prigovora koji zaštićuju njegovu pravnu poziciju. To su primjerice prigovori neobavještenja dužnika o izvršenoj cesiji, prigovori za slučaj višestruke cesije, prigovori prava prebijanja potraživanja i drugi prigovori koje je dužnik mogao istaći cedentu ili koje može istaći cesionaru. 5. Prigovori dužnika zbog neobavještenja o cesiji Cesija je konsenzualan pravni posao, što znači da pravni učinak proizvodi samim sporazumom između cedenta i cesionara. U momentu cesije potraživanje koje je ustupljeno prešlo je u imovinu cesionara. Međutim, cesija nije sama sebi cilj, nego se putem nje ostvaruju druga prava između ugovornih strana. Najčešće se cedent želi osloboditi svoga duga prema cesionaru. Da bi cesija djelovala i prema trećoj osobi, u ovom slučaju prema dužniku, on o cesiji mora biti obaviješten. To je razumljivo, jer ukoliko dužnik ne zna za cesiju, on za svoga povjerioca smatra cedenta. 35 36 Odluka Vrhovnog suda Bd 50/1. Više: Rummel/Ertl, Kommentar zum ABGB, op. cit., § 1394, Rn. 1. 68 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije Stupanjem novog povjerioca u obvezni odnos dužnikov se položaj ne smije pogoršati. Posebno je zaštićeno povjerenje savjesnog dužnika da je stari povjerilac (cedent), ako on nema drugih saznanja, još uvijek njegov pravi povjerilac. Ovim se osigurava savjestan dužnik, jer cesija je valjana i kad o njoj dužnik nije obaviješten. Cesija je sporazum između dvije strane, i to između cedenta i cesionara. Cedent prenosi potraživanje koje on ima prema dužniku, tako da se ovaj odnos tiče i dužnika, iako on (dužnik) nije ugovorna strana. Kad se ispune svi potrebni uvjeti, cesija proizvodi pravne učinke u odnosu sve tri osobe. Tako za odnos cedenta i cesusa cesija znači prestanak cedentovih prava prema dužniku, jer u trenutku postizanja sporazuma o cesiji cedent gubi svojstvo povjerioca prema dužniku i ono prelazi na cesionara.37 Da bi cesija djelovala i prema dužniku, on o njoj mora biti obaviješten. To je stajalište potvrđeno i u sudskoj praksi.38 Cedent mora dokazati da je cesus obaviješten o cesiji, a ako to ne može dokazati odgovoran je cesionaru za nastalu štetu. Zakon navodi da je cedent obvezan obavijestiti cesusa o cesiji. Međutim, pravna doktrina39 stoji na stajalištu da nije važno ko je obavijestio dužnika, je li to uradio cedent ili cesionar. Bitno je da je dužnik na pouzdan način obaviješten o cesiji. Zapravo, ovakav zaključak bi mogao naći uporište i u odredbi člana 438 st. 2. ZOO, gdje je propisano da je ispunjenje izvršeno cedentu prije obavještavanja o ustupanju punovažno i oslobađa dužnika obveze, ali samo ako nije znao za ustupanje. Inače, obveza ostaje i on nju treba ispuniti cesionaru. Kod solidarnih obveza u kojima na dužničkoj strani ima više osoba, potrebno je o cesiji obavijestiti sve solidarne dužnike.40 ZOO veliku pažnju poklanja pitanju dužnikove savjesnosti. Savjestan dužnik koji nije imao saznanja o izvršenoj cesiji oslobađa se svoje obveze ukoliko je ispuni cedentu. Nesavjestan dužnik, koji je imao saznanja o cesiji, ne oslobađa se 37 Vidjeti: V. Stanković, u Komentaru ZOO, Knjiga prva, Kragujevac – G. Milanovac 1980., str. 993. Presuda Vrhovnog privrednog suda Sl. – 2866/68., od 24. VI 1969., objavljena u Mladen Kosovac, Obligacioni ugovori kroz sudsku praksu, Beograd, 1978., str. 858. U Odluci se navodi da je cesija zaključena kad se o njoj sporazumiju cedent i cesionar, a da bi cesija djelovala i prema dužniku, treba ga o njoj obavijestiti. 39 Cigoj, S., Komentar obligacijskih razmerij, II knjiga, Ljubljana 1984., str. 1287; te S. Aranđelović u Komentaru Zakona o obligacionim odnosima (redaktori: Blagojević – Krulj), knjiga I, Beograd, 1980., str. 929. 40 Presuda Višeg privrednog suda u Novom Sadu, p. br. 21/71-17 od 23. III 1971.; Presuda Vrhovnog privrednog suda, Sl. br. 899/71-3 od 5. VIII 1971. – Zbornik sudske prakse, 1972., br. 5-6, str. 413. 38 Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 69 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić svoje obveze i on je mora ponovo ispuniti, ovoga puta cesionaru. Zakon ne propisuje posebnu formu za obavještenje dužnika o izvršenoj cesiji. Ukoliko dužnik (cesus), u neznanju o izvršenom ustupanju, svoju obvezu ispuni cedentu, tada on ispunjava obvezu nekome ko više nije njegov povjerilac, jer je cedent cesijom svoje pravo prenio na cesionara. To bi dalje značilo da se cesus nije oslobodio svoje obaveze, te bi je on još jedanput morao ispuniti cesionaru. U ovome slučaju ZOO uzima u zaštitu cesusa. Prema odredbi člana 438. st. 2. cesus se oslobađa svoje obveze ako je on prije obavijesti o cesiji ispunjenje izvršio cedentu. Postavlja se pitanje pravne prirode norme sadržane u čl. 438. st. 2. ZOO. Iz same je zakonske formulacije vidljivo da propis regulira zaštitu savjesnog dužnika. Cesionar mora priznati valjanost pravnog posla sklopljenog između cedenta i cesusa. Zakon u čl. 438. st. 2. govori o ispunjenju obveze, ali se ne navodi uživaju li zaštitu i drugi pravni poslovi, učinjeni cedentu od strane savjesnog cesusa, a ne samo ispunjenje. Mišljenja smo da bi ovu normu trebalo šire tumačiti, tako da i drugi pravni poslovi uživaju istu zaštitu.41 Prije svega, ovdje bi došli u obzir pravni poslovi u širem smislu između dužnika i cedenta i to kako dvostrani tako i jednostrani. Što se tiče jednostranih pravnih poslova, njih može biti učiniti bilo dužnik bilo cedent.42 Najvažniji bi pravni poslovi bili oprost duga, prolongiranje ispunjenja, poravnanje, prebijanje (kompenzacija) i dr. Vidljivo je da su pravni poslovi, o kojima je bilo riječi, prije svega išli za tim da se poboljša položaj dužnika, ali je moguće i da cedent nakon izvršene cesije, a prije obavještenja dužnika o njoj, poduzme pravne poslove ili radnje koje bi štetile cesusu (npr. opomena, otkaz i sl.). Postavlja se pitanje proizvode li takvi cedentovi poslovi ili radnje pravne učinke, odnosno imaju li ti poslovi koji su nepovoljni za cesusa istu snagu kao i oni poslovi koji mogu biti cesusu korisni. Mišljenja smo da postupci cedenta koji otežavaju položaj cesusa, a koji su poduzeti nakon izvršene cesije ne mogu proizvoditi pravni učinak bez obzira što cesus još uvijek cedenta smatra za svoga pravog i jedinog povjerioca. Ovome u prilog bi se moglo reći da je odredba člana 438. st. 2. ustanovljena radi zaštite savjesnog dužnika, te shodno tome pod nju potpadaju samo pravni poslovi koji su povoljni za dužnika, a ne i oni koji bi njegov položaj pogoršavali. Takvi poslovi bili bi nevažeći. Također, ovu odredbu 41 Vidi: S. Cigoj, op. cit., str. 1287.; Soergel/Zeiss, Kommentar des BGB, Stuttgart – Berlin – Köln, 1990., Band 2, § 407 Rn. 1. 42 Vidi: Münchener Kommentar BGB/Roth, op. cit., § 407 Rn. 6. 70 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije razumijemo tako da se na nju dužnik može pozvati, u cilju svoje zaštite a da li će iskoristiti to pravo ovisi o njegovoj volji i konkretnim okolnostima. Možemo zaključiti da je ispunjenje izvršeno cedentu prije obavještenja o cesiji punovažno i oslobađa dužnika obveze ako on nije znao za cesiju. Oslobađanje dužnika sukladno odredbi člana 438. st. 2. ZOO-a ne nastupa po sili zakona. Ispunjenje izvršeno cedentu oslobađa dužnika obveze, ukoliko to on istakne cesionaru. Dužnik to ne mora uraditi. Ponekad dužnik može biti zainteresiran da ne istakne taj prigovor. To će biti prije svega u slučaju kad dužnik u neznanju o cesiji obvezu ispuni cedentu, tj. svome prvobitnom povjeriocu. Nakon toga, cesionar, tj. novi povjerilac, za koga dužnik prije ispunjenja obaveze nije znao da je on njegov novi povjerilac padne pod stečaj. Ukoliko je dužnik već imao potraživanje protiv cesionara iz nekog njihovog prijašnjeg odnosa, on će u stečaju biti u istom položaju kao i ostali povjerioci i od svoga potraživanja može dobiti samo jedan dio, a nikako cjelokupno potraživanje. Međutim, i u momentu izvršene cesije, koja je bila prije stečaja, dužnik je mogao izvršiti prebijanje svoga potraživanja iz prijašnjeg odnosa s novim potraživanjem, koje je cedent prenio na cesionara. U ovakvom slučaju dužnik će, naravno, biti zainteresiran da on prema cesionaru, po sili zakona, ne bude slobodan, jer će s njim izvršiti prebijanje, a iznos koji je na ime ispunjenja dao cedentu, tražit će sukladno pravilima stjecanja bez osnova. Ukoliko se pak dužnik pozove na odredbe člana 438. st. 2. ZOO i istakne prigovor cesionaru da je on obvezu već ispunio cedentu, tada se on oslobađa svoje obveze. U tom slučaju cesionar može, temeljem pravila o stjecanju bez osnove, tražiti isplatu od cedenta onoga što je on primio od dužnika. I po njemačkom pravu dužnik ne sudjeluje u zaključenju cesije i shodno tome u trenutku ustupanja ne može zaštititi svoje interese. BGB štiti dužnika koji nije imao saznanja o cesiji. Zapravo, ako dužnik u neznanju o izvršenom ustupanju, svoju obavezu ispuni cedentu, tada on zapravo ispunjava obvezu nekome ko više nije njegov povjerilac, jer je cedent ustupanjem svoje pravo prenio na cesionara. Znači, dužnik bi morao ponovno izvršiti svoju obvezu cesionaru. Međutim, prema odredbi § 407 st. 2. BGB-a cesionar mora priznati činidbu koju je dužnik nakon ustupanja ispunio cedentu, ako dužnik nije znao za ustupanje.43 Također se § 407 BGB-a štiti savjesnog dužnika koji je u neznanju o cesiji sa starim povjeriocem poduzeo pravne 43 Sörgel/Siebert – Zeiss, op. cit., § 407 Rn.1. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 71 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić poslove u vezi s ustupljenim potraživanjem. Pravni poslovi mogu biti različiti, kao što su primjerice odgoda plaćanja, oprost cjelokupnog ili dijela duga i sl.44 Ukoliko je dužnik, prilikom poduzimanja pravnog posla sa starim povjeriocem njemu nešto dao tada mu na raspolaganju stoje dvije različite mogućnosti. Prva je mogućnost da se dužnik može pozvati na odredbe § 407 BGB-a i da novom povjeriocu može istaknuti prigovore iz prethodnog pravnog posla s cedentom, tj. prigovore oprosta duga, odgode plaćanja, isplate jednog dijela duga i sl. Druga bi mogućnost bila da se dužnik može uzdržati od svojih prava iz § 407, te da od cedenta može zahtijevati povrat isplaćenih sredstava temeljem § 812. Pravni poslovi koje bi cedent poduzeo nakon izvršene cesije radi pogoršanja položaja dužnika (npr. otkaz, opomena, i sl.) nisu važeći.45 U austrijskom je pravu cesija valjana i bez dužnikove saglasnosti, pa čak i onda kad dužnik o cesiji nije uopće obaviješten.46 Ipak, zbog posljedica ugovora, uputno je dužnika što prije obavijestiti o ustupljenom potraživanju. Prema § 1395 ABGB, dužnik koji nije znao za cesiju oslobađa se svoje obveze ukoliko je istu ispunio cedentu. Ako dužnik nema saznanja o izvršenoj cesiji, on može obvezu ispuniti starome povjeriocu, bez obzira što on više nije njegov povjerilac. Pored toga, dužnik može, ukoliko nije obaviješten o cesiji, sa starim povjeriocem sklopiti poravnanje ili se na drugi način osloboditi svoje obveze. U svim ovim slučajevima cesionar mora priznati valjanost dužnikove radnje i od njega ne može zahtijevati ponovno ispunjenje ustupljenog potraživanja. Ovo stajalište u cijelosti dijeli i sudska praksa.47 Dužnik koji je obaviješten o cesiji ne može više svoju obvezu ispuniti cedentu, nego je mora ispuniti cesionaru. Potrebno je napomenuti da zaštitu uživa samo savjestan dužnik, tj. onaj dužnik koji nije znao za cesiju. Kad savjestan dužnik pokuša ispuniti obvezu cedentu, ovaj nije ovlašten primiti ispunjenje, nego treba upoznati dužnika da je izvršena cesija. Ukoliko pak cedent primi ispunjenje obveze od dužnika, koji nije znao za cesiju, dužnik se oslobađa svoje obveze. Cesionar ostvarenje svojih prava može zahtijevati samo od cedenta, a ne od dužnika. Ukoliko dužnik nije siguran treba li svoju obvezu izvršiti cedentu ili cesionaru, on se sukladno 44 K. Larenz, op. cit., § 34 IV S. 588. Više o tome: J. von Staudinger, Kommentar zum BGB, 12. Auflage, Berlin 1994., § 407 Rn. 12 i dalje. 46 Bliže: Gschnitzer/Faistenberger, op. cit., str. 188. i dalje. 47 Vidjeti Odluku Vrhovnog suda Bd 53/33. 45 72 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije § 1425 ABGB može osloboditi svoje obveze tako što će dugovani iznos položiti kod suda.48 Obavještenje dužnika o cesiji u osnovi ne zahtijeva nikakvu formu, ali ono mora biti jasno i razumljivo, kako o obimu cesije, tako i o osobi cesionara. 6. Višestruko ustupanje Cesijom se prenose cedentova prava prema cesusu na novog povjerioca, cesionara. Zaključenjem ugovora o cesiji, cedent nema više nikakvih prava prema cesusu. Slijedom toga, pravilo je da cedent svoje potraživanje može samo jedanput ustupiti, a novo je ustupanje od strane cedenta na novog povjerioca bez pravnog učinka. Ukoliko bi cedent još jedanput raspolagao pravom kojeg više nema, tada bi on postupao suprotno pravilu “nemo plus iuris ad alium transferre potest quam ipse habet”. Istodobno sa zaključenjem ugovora cedent prestaje biti povjerilac, a na njegovo mjesto, kao novi povjerilac, dolazi cesionar. Međutim, događa se da cedent isto potraživanje u cijelosti cedira nekoliko puta. Primjerice, cedent prenese svoje potraživanje najprije na povjerioca A, pa isto potraživanje na povjerioca B i na kraju na povjerioca C. U tom je slučaju cedent jedno te isto potraživanje ustupio različitim osobama. Ukoliko pođemo od općeg pravila da cedent svoje potraživanje može ustupiti samo jedanput i da tim ustupanjem njegova prava prestaju, tada dolazimo do logičnog zaključka da je pravo na to potraživanje stekao samo prvi cesionar, u našem slučaju to je povjerilac na kojega je prvo cedirano potraživanje, tj. povjerilac A. Od pravila da niko ne može prenijeti više prava nego što ga sam ima, Zakon je odstupio u članu 439. Zapravo, u ZOO je usvojeno rješenje da ako povjerilac isto potraživanje ustupi raznim osobama, potraživanje pripada prijemniku (cesionaru) o kome je ustupilac (cedent) prvo obavijestio dužnika, odnosno onome koji se prvi javio dužniku. U višestrukoj cesiji nije dovoljno da je novi povjerilac s cedentom sklopio ugovor o cesiji, nego je veoma bitno da je za cesiju i cesionara saznao i dužnik. Iz ovoga se vidi da je Zakon obavještavanju dužnika, odnosno njegovom saznanju o ustupanju potraživanja dao veliku važnost. Obavještenje je, sukladno ovoj formulaciji, učinjeno sastavnim dijelom cesije.49 Kod višestrukog se ustupanja mora razlikovati je li dužnik znao za to višestruko ustupanje. Ukoliko nije znao, nego ima saznanja samo o jednoj cesiji, on 48 49 Schwiamann/Honsell, op. cit., § 1395, Rn. 2. Dr. S. Aranđelović u Komentaru ZOO op. cit., str. 929. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 73 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić će se osloboditi svoje obveze ukoliko je ispuni tom poznatom cesionaru. Međutim, ako je dužnik znao za višestruko ustupanje, tada je odlučan moment denuncijacije, odnosno dužnik svoju obvezu mora ispuniti onom cesionaru na kojeg mu je cedent prvo ukazao.50 U tom slučaju nije bitan moment izvršene cesije. U Zakonu nije regulirana situacija u kojoj bi dužnik istodobno saznao za više cesionara s kojima je cedent zaključio ugovore o cesiji. U tom bi slučaju trebalo prihvatiti shvaćanje prema kojemu potraživanje pripada onom cesionaru koji je prvi s cedentom zaključio ugovor o cesiji.51 Međutim, i ovaj prijedlog nije bez nedostataka. Zapravo, problem se može pojaviti u situaciji u kojoj dužnik ne može ustanoviti s kojim je cesionarom cedent zaključio prvi ugovor, tj. ko je njegov stvarni povjerilac. U tom bi se slučaju dužnik mogao pozvati na odredbu člana 327. stav 1. ZOO i dugovanu stvar položiti kod suda. Možemo zaključiti da se dužnik u slučaju višestrukog ustupanja može osloboditi svoje obveze na više načina52 i to: prije obavještenja o cesiji – ukoliko dug isplati prvobitnom povjeriocu; nakon obavještenja – cesionaru o kojem ga je cedent prvo obavijestio ili koji mu se prvi javio; a u slučaju da dužnik nije siguran ko je njegov pravi povjerilac – polaganjem (deponovanjem) kod suda. U višestrukoj cesiji jedan je dužnik, a s druge strane, može biti više cesionara od kojih je samo jedan ovlašten primiti ispunjenje obveze. Postavlja se pitanje kako će, od koga i na temelju čega cesionar, kao novi povjerilac, doći do svog potraživanja kad savjestan dužnik isplati dug nekom drugom, a ne njemu. Kad savjesni cesus kod višestruke cesije dug isplati drugome, a ne pravom povjeriocu, odnosi će se između primaoca isplate i pravog povjerioca raspraviti primjenom pravila o neosnovanom obogaćenju. Isto tako, ukoliko savjesni cesus isplati dug cedentu, jer nije bio obaviješten o cesiji, cedent prima isplatu u svoje ime ali za račun cesionara, tako da je obvezan primljeno predati cesionaru.53 U slučaju ustupanja istog potraživanja većem broju povjerilaca, sukladno rješenjima prihvaćenim u njemačkom pravu, samo bi prvo ustupanje bilo valjano. Tako bi primjerice od tri izvršena ustupanja, najprije cesionaru A, potom cesionaru B i na kraju cesionaru C, valjano bilo samo prvo, tj. samo bi A kao prvi cesionar postao valjani imalac potraživanja. To znači da su daljnja ustupanja na B i C bez 50 U tom smislu B. Vizner, Komentar Zakona o obveznim odnosima, Zagreb, 1978., str. 1438. S. Cigoj, op. cit., str. 1287. 52 Vidjeti: B. Vizner, op. cit., str. 1438. 53 V. Stanković, op. cit., str. 994. 51 74 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije značaja. Međutim, može se dogoditi da je dužnik saznao samo za ustupanje potraživanja na cesionara B i da je on njemu ispunio svoju obvezu. U tom je slučaju dužnik ispunio obvezu onome ko nije njegov povjerilac.54 U normalnom stanju stvari dužnik bi istu obvezu morao ispuniti i cesionaru A, koji je ustvari jedini pravi povjerilac. BGB i u ovom slučaju štiti savjesnog dužnika, jer je u § 408 st. 1. propisano da je dužnik slobodan od svoje obveze ukoliko nije znao niti morao znati o prethodno izvršenom ustupanju potraživanja.55 Slično shvaćanje prihvaćeno je i u austrijskom pravu. Polazeći od općeg načela da niko ne može ustupiti više prava nego što ga sam ima, austrijska pravna nauka zastupa mišljenje da je samo prvo ustupanje valjano, te da je samo prvi cesionar stekao pravo prema dužniku,56 a ne i ostali na koje bi kasnije cedent prenio potraživanje. Sudska praksa u cijelosti potvrđuje ovakvo stanovište i kaže da je samo prvo ustupanje punovažno, bez obzira koji je cesionar prvi obavijestio dužnika o izvršenom ustupanju,57 Austrijsko pravo ne poznaje savjesno stjecanje potraživanja. To je sasvim razumljivo, jer ukoliko samo prvi cesionar stječe potraživanje, svi ostali koji bi možda to isto potraživanje stekli od cedenta stjecali bi to pravo od nevlasnika. To bi dalje prouzročilo pogoršanje položaja dužnika, što je protivno općem načelu da se položaj dužnika ne smije pogoršati. Svojom je odlukom Vrhovni sud58 potvrdio da se potraživanje ne može steći od cedenta koji više nije imalac potraživanja. U ovom slučaju savjesnom povjeriocu, koji je potraživanje stekao od cedenta, koji nije bio imalac ustupljenog potraživanja, jer ga je već ustupio drugoj osobi, pripada pravo na naknadu štete od cedenta. Samo je po sebi razumljivo da savjesni povjerilac, ukoliko želi uspjeti sa zahtjevom za naknadu štete, mora dokazati da nije znao za prije izvršenu cesiju. Postavlja se pitanje šta će se dogoditi kad dužnik svoju obvezu ispuni prema nekom drugom cesionaru kod tzv. višestruke cesije. Vidjeli smo da cedent svoje potraživanje može ustupiti samo jedanput, a svako je dalje ustupanje istog potraživanja bez pravnog dejstva. Ukoliko se dogodi da cedent ustupi jedno te isto 54 Erman/ Westermann, Handkommentar zum BGB, Münster, 1993., § 408, Rn. 1. J. von Staudinger, op. cit., § 408 Rn. 17. 56 Vidi: Schwamm/Honsell, Praxiskommentar zum ABGB, op. cit., § 1394, Rn. 12. 57 Odluka Vrhovnog suda od 13. VII 1981. Bd 54/104; kao i od 11. VII 1985., objavljena u JBI 1986., 235. 58 Odluka Vrhovnog suda od 10. 3. 1982. godine, objavljena u EvBl 1982./140. 55 Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 75 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić potraživanje na više osoba dužnik je ovlašten isplatiti dug samo prvome cesionaru. Međutim, ukoliko dužnik nema saznanja o tim cesijama, tj. da je cedent isto potraživanje ustupio na više osoba, on će se osloboditi svoje obveze ako je ispuni i drugom cesionaru koji mu se javi i dokaže da mu je potraživanje ustupljeno. U tom slučaju rizik neobavještavanja dužnika o izvršenoj cesiji pada na teret cesionara.59 7. Prebijanje potraživanja kao zaštita dužnika Prebijanje (kompenzacija, prijeboj) je prestanak dviju uzajamno jednorodnih obveza njihovim međusobnim ukidanjem.60 Prebijanje je jedan od načina prestanka obveze, i to prebijanjem protupotraživanja potraživanjem. Da bi se prebijanje uopće moglo izvršiti, potrebno je da potraživanja koja se prebijaju budu jednorodna, uzajamna, dospjela i prinudna. Pravilu da se cesusov položaj cesijom ne smije pogoršati, služi i član 340. ZOO, koji regulira mogućnost prebijanja s ustupljenim potraživanjem. U tom slučaju odstupa se od pravila međusobne uzajamnosti potraživanja, jer dužnik cesionarevom potraživanju prebija svoje potraživanje koje on ima prema cedentu, a ne prema novom povjeriocu. Ovo odstupanje moglo bi se objasniti karakteristikama same cesije. Zapravo, cesija je ugovor između cedenta i cesionara. Za njegovu se važnost ne zahtijeva saglasnost dužnika, ali cesija proizvodi pravni učinak prema cesusu tek od momenta kad on bude o njoj obaviješten. Cesija predstavlja derivativno stjecanje prava, tj. cesionar svoje pravo izvodi iz cedentovog prava. Samim tim, cesionar nema veća prava nego što ih je imao cedent. Cesusova obveza ostaje nepromijenjena i njegov se položaj ni u čemu ne mijenja. Sva prava iz prijašnjeg odnosa cesus zadržava i može ih isticati cesionaru. Jedno od tih prava je i prigovor prebijanja. Kao što smo već vidjeli, za cesusa je veoma bitan moment obavještenja o cesiji. Od momenta obavještenja dužnika njegov povjerilac nije više cedent nego cesionar. Ukoliko je cesus prije cesije imao potraživanje protiv cedenta, i mogao je to potraživanje prebiti s cedentovim potraživanjem, sad mu ostaje mogućnost da cesionaru, na temelju odredbe člana 340. stav 1. ZOO, istakne taj prigovor. To znači 59 60 Vidjeti odluku Vrhovnog suda Bd 50/1. S. Jakšić, Sarajevo, 1962., str. 409. 76 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije da cesus može potraživanje koje već ima prema cedentu prebiti s ustupljenim potraživanjem. Ovom se odredbom želi zaštititi cesus koji ima valjano potraživanje prema svom povjeriocu i može ga kompenzirati svojim dugom prema tom povjeriocu. Ukoliko dužnik ne bi imao ovo pravo, cesijom bi se njegov položaj nedvojbeno pogoršao. Prema stajalištu pravne teorije,61 premda više nema uzajamnosti potraživanja, cesusu treba ostaviti mogućnost prebijanja, ako su ispunjene i druge pretpostavke potrebne za valjano prebijanje. To prebijanje djeluje prema cesionaru, te se cesus oslobađa svoje obveze. Ovdje je potrebno istaći da nije odlučujuće je li cesus svoje potraživanje prema cedentu stekao prije ili nakon cesije. Za primjenu je ove odredbe bitno da je cesus potraživanje koje prebija stekao prije obavještenja o cesiji. U ZOO, u članu 340. stav 1. štiti se cesusa od mogućih štetnih posljedica cesije i omogućava mu se prebijanje njegovog potraživanja ustupljenim potraživanjem. Zapravo, ovom mu se odredbom pomaže da ostvari prebijanje svoga potraživanja samo u onom slučaju ako su ispunjeni uvjeti za prebijanje u momentu saznanja cesusa za cesiju. Logički se nameće pitanje šta će se dogoditi ako cesus ima određeno potraživanje protiv cedenta, ali u momentu saznanja za cesiju nisu ispunjeni uvjeti za prebijanje. Jasno je da se u tom slučaju cesus više ne može pozvati na član 340. stav 1. ZOO, niti se pak može pozvati na zaštitu sukladno članu 440. stav 2. ZOO. U tom slučaju cesusu ostaje na raspolaganju samo član 340. stav 2. ZOO, i to pod određenim uvjetima. Sukladno odredbi člana 340. stav 2. ZOO, cesus može izvršiti prebijanje sa cesionarom svoga potraživanja koje je stekao prema cedentu prije obavještenja o cesiji, a koje je dospjelo prije ili najkasnije u isto vrijeme kad i ustupljeno potraživanje. Cesus ne može izjaviti prebijanje sa cesionarom, ako je on svoje potraživanje prema cedentu stekao nakon obavijesti o cesiji. To je razumljivo, jer sa danom saznanja za cesiju cedent izlazi iz obveznog odnosa kao povjerilac sa cesusom. Tako moguće novo stjecanje cesusovog potraživanja prema cedentu nema pravnog uporišta u nekadašnjem njihovom odnosu. 61 Hans Brox, Algemeines Schuldrecht, op. cit., § 29 V, str. 242. i dalje. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 77 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić U njemačkom pravu, sukladno § 406, dužnik može potraživanje koje mu pripada prema dosadašnjem vjerovniku prebijati i s novim vjerovnikom, pod uvjetom da mu prigodom stjecanja potraživanja nije bilo poznato ustupanje ili potraživanje nije dospjelo tek nakon saznanja i nakon ustupljenog potraživanja. Austrijsko pravo62 je stajališta da dužnik može isticati cesionaru samo one prigovore koji su bili osnovani do momenta obavještenja o cesiji. Osobito važno za dužnika može biti pravo prebijanja i dužnik svoje protupotraživanje koje ima prema cedentu može prebiti potraživanjem koje je ustupljeno cesionaru, ali samo takva potraživanja koja je imao do momenta obavještenja o cesiji. 8. Ostali prigovori cesusa Zaključenjem ugovora o cesiji, cesionar stupa na mjesto cedenta u obvezni odnos. Cesionar zauzima mjesto povjerioca i između njega i cesusa nastaje odnos koji je prije cesije postojao između cedenta i cesusa. U sadržaju se obligacije ništa ne mijenja, cesus duguje cesionaru ispunjenje one iste obveze koju je dugovao cedentu. S druge strane, cesionar ima ista ona prava koja je cedent imao prema cesusu.63 Cesionar zadržava sva prava koja je imao cedent, a dužnikov se položaj nakon cesije ne smije pogoršati. To znači da i pored cesije i stupanja nove osobe na mjesto povjerioca, cesusu ostaju svi prigovori koje je on mogao istaći cedentu prije cesije.64 Ovakvo stajalište zauzela je i sudska praksa.65 Prema odredbi člana 440. stav 1. ZOO cesionar ima prema dužniku ista prava koja je cedent imao prema dužniku do momenta ustupanja. Cesionar ne dobija niti gubi šta novo, na njega prelazi isto ono potraživanje koje je do ustupanja pripadalo cedentu. Pored glavnog potraživanja, na cesionara prelaze i sporedna prava vezana za glavno potraživanje, kao što su hipoteka, zalog, pravo prvenstvene naplate, pravo na kamatu i sl. Da bi se zaštitio dužnik, u stavu 2. člana 440. ZOO određeno je da dužnik cesionaru može istaknuti, pored prigovora koje ima prema njemu, i one prigovore koje je mogao istaknuti cedentu do časa kad je saznao za ustupanje. Zakonodavac je 62 Vidjeti primjerice Schwimann/Honsell, op. cit., § 1396 Rn. 3. V. Stanković, Komentar ZOO, op. cit., str. 994. 64 S. Aranđelović, Komentar ZOO, op. cit., str. 930. 65 U odluci Vrhovnog suda Hrvatske ističe se da se cesijom mijenja samo subjekt tražbine, pa dužniku pripada pravo na isticanje svih prigovora koje je otprije imao – VSH, II Rev-71/80 od 13. I 1981., objavljeno u PSP br. 19., str. 77. 63 78 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije ovom odredbom želio zaštititi dužnika, i to iz najmanje dva razloga. Prvo, dužnik nema mogućnosti djelovanja prilikom zaključenja cesije između cedenta i cesionara. Drugo, sadržaj potraživanja kod cesije ostaje isti, odnosno sadržaj potraživanja se ne mijenja, a samim tim dužnik, koji mora ispuniti svoju obvezu, ne smije cesijom dospjeti u teži položaj od onoga u kojem je bio prije cesije. Pod prigovorima u smislu člana 440. st. 2. ZOO podrazumijevaju se sve vrste prigovora koji su dužniku na raspolaganju, a koji mogu poboljšati njegov položaj u obveznom odnosu. Dužnik može osporavati cjelokupno ili djelomično potraživanje koje je predmet obligacije. Pri tome je sasvim nebitno, sa stajališta dužnika, zbog čega je potraživanje prestalo postojati ili zbog čega ono uopće nije nastalo ili se to potraživanje djelomično smanjilo.66 Dužniku stoje na raspolaganju, prije svega, objektivni prigovori, jer oni proizlaze iz samog potraživanja koje se prenosi. Prigovori objektivne prirode koje dužnik može isticati su, primjerice, da je obveza ispunjena, prigovor ništavosti potraživanja, prigovor zastarjelosti, prigovor neispunjenja uvjeta, prigovor nedospjelosti obveze.67 Ovi su prigovori vezani za odnos između cedenta i cesusa. Potrebno je razlikovati ove prigovore od prigovora koji mogu proizaći iz odnosa cesionara i cesusa. Prvu vrstu prigovora iz odnosa cedenta i cesusa cesus može istaknuti ili cedentu ili cesionaru. Međutim, on cedentu te prigovore može isticati do momenta obavještavanja o cesiji, a cesionaru nakon obavještenja. Drugu vrstu prigovora cesus može isticati samo cesionaru. U ZOO se ne pravi razlika između savjesnog i nesavjesnog cesionara, tj. između onoga cesionara koji je znao i onoga koji nije znao da dužnik može isticati prigovore, odnosno da dužnik ima osnovane prigovore. Cesionarova je obveza provjeriti postoje li na strani dužnika prigovori koji bi mogli otežati ostvarenje potraživanja. Ukoliko cesionar propusti to učiniti prije zaključenja ugovora o cesiji, ne može se pozivati na okolnost da on nije znao niti da ga cedent nije obavijestio o mogućnosti dužnika da može isticati osnovane prigovore. Cesijom je moguće ustupiti i ono potraživanje koje potječe iz dvostranih ugovora. U dvostranim ugovorima dužnik, pored svoje obveze prema drugoj strani (u ovom slučaju cedentu), ima i prava koja proizlaze iz tog ugovora. Ovo se potraživanje može ustupiti prije nego što cedent bude u obligaciji, gdje je on, s jedne 66 U tom smislu Erman/Westerman, op. cit., § 404 Rn. 2. Vidi: V. Stanković, Komentar ZOO, op. cit., str. 995.; S. Aranđelović, Komentar ZOO, op. cit., str. 930. 67 Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 79 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić strane, povjerilac, a s druge dužniku ispunio svoju obvezu. Budući da cesionar stupa na mjesto cedenta u već postojeći obvezni odnos, postavlja se pitanje kakav je njegov položaj tom odnosu, ako cedent ne izvrši svoju obvezu, ili ako cedent nakon sklapanja ugovora o cesiji dovede sebe kao dužnika u teži položaj od onog koji je postojao na početku obligacionog odnosa, odnosno koji je postojao prije cesije. U tom slučaju cesionar mora trpjeti sve negativne posljedice koje nastanu radnjama i postupcima ili propuštanjem određenih radnji od cedenta68 u obveznom odnosu u kojem se cedent javlja i kao dužnik. To znači da dužnik sve prigovore koje može istaknuti cedentu kao svom dužniku iz dvostranoobveznog odnosa, može istaknuti i cesionaru. Cesus bi u tom slučaju, primjerice, mogao istaknuti prigovor istodobnog ispunjenja obveze, naravno ukoliko nije drukčije ugovoreno ili prigovor neispunjenja obveze, a to dalje znači da bi on pod određenim uvjetima imao pravo na naknadu štete ili bi mogao odustati od ugovora. Pravilo je da cesus može isticati cesionaru sve one prigovore koje je mogao isticati i cedentu do momenta saznanja za cesiju. Izuzev prigovora koje je dužnik imao prema cedentu i mogao ih istaknuti cesionaru, dužnik može istaknuti cesionaru i prigovore koji se neposredno odnose na cesionara. Pretpostavka za to je da je cesionar doista i postao povjerilac. Tako primjerice cesus može istaknuti prigovor da sama cesija nije valjana, odnosno da je cesijom preneseno potraživanje koje je zakonom zabranjeno ili je ugovorom isključen prijenos potraživanja. Međutim, ukoliko bi cesus u trenutku obavijesti o nastaloj cesiji priznao veritet tražbine, tj. priznao cesionaru da tražbina doista postoji, tada ne bi mogao više cesionaru staviti one prigovore koje bi mogao isticati da nije bilo priznanja, kao što su primjerice prigovor zastarjelosti potraživanja, isplate i druge.69 Smatramo da ovo priznanje veriteta tražbine cesus može učiniti ne samo u momentu obavijesti o cesiji, nego i nakon toga. Odredbom člana 440. stav 2. ZOO određeno je da dužnik može istaknuti cesionaru prigovore koje je on imao, bilo prema njemu ili cedentu. Iz same zakonske definicije proizlazi da je ta norma dispozitivnog karaktera. Ona je ustanovljena kao pravo cesusa, a ne njegova obveza. Budući da se ovdje radi o normi dispozitivnog karaktera, dužnik se ovoga svog prava može odreći. Zapravo, dopušteno je da se dužnik može ugovorom odreći prigovora koji mu stoje na raspolaganju. To odricanje 68 69 RGRK/Weber, Berlin – New York, 1994., § 404 Rn. 19. M. Vedriš/P. Klarić, Zagreb, 2000., str. 326. 80 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Položaj cesusa kod cesije može biti potpuno ili djelomično, a ugovor se o odricanju od prigovora može zaključiti kako s cedentom, prije cesije, tako i s cesionarom, nakon izvršene cesije. U njemačkom pravu dužnik može cesionaru isticati sve prigovore koje je do momenta cesije mogao isticati cedentu.70 Ti prigovori moraju biti utemeljeni u vrijeme izvršenog ustupanja. U teoriji prevladava mišljenje kako je dovoljno da prigovor na koji se poziva cesus ima svoju utemeljenost u momentu cesije.71 Tako je za prigovor zastarjelosti dovoljno da je rok počeo teći u momentu cesije, a da je on istekao, odnosno da je nastupila zastarjelost nakon izvršene cesije.72 U austrijskom pravu obavještenje dužnika o izvršenom ustupanju ima za posljedicu da dužnik svoju obvezu više ne može ispuniti starome povjeriocu, nego da tu istu obvezu mora ispuniti cesionaru. Ako imamo u vidu i načelo da se položaj dužnika izvršenom cesijom ne može pogoršati, tada je logična odredba § 1396 ABGB da dužnik svoje prigovore može isticati i novom povjeriocu. Da se pravni položaj dužnika ne bi pogoršao, daje mu se mogućnost isticanja cesionaru svih prigovora koje je on imao prema cedentu. Tako dužnik može isticati cesionaru prigovor nevažnosti osnovnog pravnog posla, te navesti sve razloge koji vode ništavosti pravnog posla. Dužnik se može pozivati i na nedostatak forme, kako kod glavnog posla tako i kod cesije ukoliko je forma potrebna za cesiju. Sudska praksa73 zauzima stajalište da dužnik cesionaru može isticati i prigovor neispunjenja drugoga pravnog posla. Dalje, dužnik je ovlašten isticati prigovor kako još nije nastupio uvjet predviđen osnovnim pravnim poslom, da je s cedentom ugovorio oprost dijela ili cijeloga duga i dr. Dužnik može cesionaru isticati ne samo one prigovore iz njegovog odnosa sa cedentom, nego i sve one prigovore koje dužnik ima prema cesionaru iz nekog njihovog odnosa. 9. Zaključak Uspoređujući gore navedene pravne sisteme, primjećuje se da su oni napustili zajedničku, historijsku polaznu tačku kako su potraživanja, kao dio čisto osobne veze između povjerioca i dužnika, neprenosiva. Sva moderna zakonodavstva usvajaju načelo da su potraživanja prenosiva. Razvoj prava i ekonomskih interesa pojedinih skupina u različitim sistemima vodio je logično različitim rezultatima. 70 Vidi § 404. BGB. K. Larenz, op. cit., § 34 IV, str. 587. 72 Kohler, JZ 1986, str. 516. 73 Odluka Vrhovnog suda Bd 49/91. 71 Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 81 �Prof. dr. Abedin Bikić Navedena materijalna prava propisuju zaštitu dužnika od mogućih negativnih učinaka cesije. Polazna tačka dužnikove zaštite, u prikazanim zakonodavstvima, mogla bi se svesti na načelo prema kojemu se položaj dužnika izvršenom cesijom ne može pogoršati. Dogovor cedenta i cesionara o ustupanju potraživanja ne smije ići na štetu cesusa. ZOO, BGB i ABGB usvajaju pravilo da cedent ne može cesijom dovesti cesusa u nepovoljniji položaj od onoga u kojemu je bio prije cesije, prihvaćajući i pravilo da cesus može istaknuti cesionaru kako one prigovore koje je do momenta saznanja o ustupanju mogao istaći cedentu, tako i prigovore koje ima prema cesionaru. Ovdje ipak postoji jedno ograničenje. Ovo ograničenje tiče se vremena stjecanja osnovanosti prigovora. Cesus može isticati novome povjeriocu sve one prigovore koje je on imao protiv cedenta samo do vremena saznanja o izvršenom ustupanju. 82 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2850 Title A name given to the resource Position of the Assignor in the Cession Author Author BIKIĆ, Abedin Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: Cession is a contract between assignor and assignee by whom assignor cede its demands towards debtor (cesus). In cession, debtor is not a party, so it is necessary enable it legal protection. Ours, German and Austrian law protects conscientious debtors by enabling it to state certain objection. Namely, if the debtor has not been informed about the assignment he has no information about the new creditor, and if he fulfilled obligation towards asignee afterwards, he can state an abjection that he had already fulfill obligations towards the creditor for whom he had known that he was its creditor. Similarly, in case of multiple cessions, debtor can state a claim that he had fulfilled obligation towards the creditor for whom he had known that it was his creditor. Except mentioned objections to the debtor are all other objective or subjective objections intended to protect it stance, which is primarily related to the right for offsetting for ceded claims. The provisions of the Act relating to the protection of the debtor are dispositive nature of the debtor and its about it whether you will invite them or not. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-5706 K Law (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/eb2e8e8e915d40a9007bfefee0b10327.pdf 312f134f1931be361c00738d1a566968 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe City University of New York (CUNY), USA lamaghionyeodiwe@york.cuny.edu lamaghionyeodiwe@yahoo.co.uk Opeyemi Akinyemi Covenant Universty Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria opsie88@yahoo.com opeyemi.akinyemi@covenantuniversity.edu.ng Abstract: This study re-examines the long run relationship between the budget and current account deficits in an oil-dependent open economy like Nigeria using a multivariate Granger causality test within the VECM framework. This result confirmed the existence of a long run relationship between the budget and current account deficit in Nigeria, thus supporting the Mudell-Fleming theory and refuting the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH). The causality result indicates no causality between budget deficit and current account while the current account deficit causes budget account deficit. This implies that reduction in the current account deficits will help reduce the “twin deficit” dilemma. Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 Keywords: Budget Deficits; Current Account Deficits; Multivariate Granger Causality; OilDependent Open Economy; Nigeria JEL Classification: E62, F32, H6 Article History Submitted: 19 December 2014 Resubmitted: 2 September 2015 Accepted: 15 September 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JECOSS15528 149 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi Introduction In empirical literature, there are two major theories that are used to explain the causal link between budget deficit and current account deficits. These are the Mundell-Fleming Model of Exchange Rate Regime and the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH). The traditional Keynesians use the Mundell-Fleming model to explain the twin deficit relationship and they argued that when budget deficit increases, the current account balance will deteriorate as the increases in the budget deficits will drive up domestic interest rates, real exchange rate and rate of capital inflows. On the other hand, while acknowledging the detrimental effects of large fiscal deficits on the economy, the critics of the Mundell-Fleming model have disputed the sequence of causation implied by the model (Harshemzadeh and Wilson, 2006). These groups of researchers used the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH) to argue that no relationship exists between the two deficits as budget deficits results mainly from tax cuts which tend to reduce public revenue and public savings. They opined that individuals will perceive these tax cuts as incurring future tax liabilities and thus will increase savings rather than consumption. Nigeria, experiences over the years have shown that there have been periods of persistent and rising budget deficits as well as periods with current account deficits. As such, it is evident that the Nigerian economy has been experiencing the twin deficit phenomenon. In the same vein, Nigeria as an oil-exporting country where revenue from oil production contributes more than 95% of its foreign exchange, 40 percent of GDP and 80 percent of fiscal revenues makes the economy susceptible to fluctuations in government revenues as a result of volatility in oil revenue (Onafowokan and Owoye, 2006). In Nigeria, two studies are of prominence in this respect, these are Egwaikhide (1997), Egwaikhide et al (2002) and Onafowokan and Owoye (2006). Egwaikhide (1997) examined the effects of budget deficits on the current account balance in Nigeria and concluded that quantitative evidence suggests that budget policy affects the current account balance for Nigeria. Egwaikhide et al (2002) in their paper on causality between budget deficit and current account balance for a number of African countries, found a unidirectional causality from the budget deficits to the current account deficits to exists for Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa. Onafowokan and Owoye (2006) examined the relationship between budget and trade deficits. Their findings showed evidence of positive relationship between trade and budget deficits in both the short and long run but that causality is unidirectional running from trade deficits to budget deficits. Apart from the fact that these studies in Nigeria utilized a bivariate framework commonly used in previous empirical studies which this study tends to improve upon by using a multivariate framework of Granger causality analysis, available data from the last ten years showed that the two deficits have not been moving together as argued by the two studies (Egwaikhide, 1997 and Onafowokan and Owoye, 2006) that were previously done for Nigeria. The most recent study to the best of my knowledge was 150 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination carried out in 2006 and between then and now; there could have been some adjustment. Consequently, it becomes imperative to re-visit and re-examine the validity of the twin deficit phenomenon for Nigeria. As it is believed in open economy macroeconomics that budget deficit leads to deterioration of the current account balance (Jayaraman et al, 2008), it therefore becomes imperative to find out if the resulting current account balance experienced by the Nigerian economy is as a result of the substantial increase in its budget deficit over the years as has been argued by the twin deficit hypothesis or it is the other way round. This thus raises some pertinent questions like – Is the twin deficit hypothesis still valid for Nigeria? Is there a long run relationship between budget deficits and the current account deficits? What are the major channels of transmission through which budget deficits affect current account deficits? What is the direction of causality between the budget deficit and the current account deficit? In response to the above questions and given the recent fiscal expansion due to the global financial crisis, it becomes relevant and significant for a study like this to revisit the twin deficit phenomenon for Nigeria and examine the direction of causality. Thus, using time series annual (secondary) data covering the period 1970 through to 2010, the study re-examines the long run relationship between the budget and current account deficits in Nigeria. Following this introductory section, section two reviews the literature while section three examines some stylized facts on budget and current account deficit in Nigeria. Section four contains the methodology and empirical analysis while section five concludes the study. Literature Review Theoretical Review In empirical literature, two major theories are commonly used to explain the causal link between the budget deficit and the current account deficits. They include the MundellFleming model of exchange rate regime and the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis approach. The Mundell-Fleming Model Framework This model was developed by the works of Robert Mundell (1968) and J. Marcus Fleming (1967) and it offers an exchange rate approach to analyzing how the budget and current account deficits are related. The model presupposes a small open economy with full international capital mobility with the assumption that interest rate is the same in the world economy, except in cases where capital controls exist (Olga, 2000). It posits that a positive relationship exists between the two deficits and that causality is from budget deficit to current account deficit. The model is often used by the conventional Keynesians to argue that an increase in the budget deficits would cause an increase in domestic absorption, increase aggregate demand and put upward pressure Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 151 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi on domestic interest rate above the world rate. This in turn increases imports, reduce export and bring about an appreciation of the exchange rate thereby deteriorating the current account balance. According to Fleegler (2006), as a government borrows to finance its deficits, it drives up borrowing costs or the interest rates. A higher interest rate makes domestic securities more attractive and leads to an increased demand for the domestic currency causing an appreciation of the domestic currency due to the capital inflows. As the currency appreciates, domestic goods become more expensive relative to foreign goods thereby leading citizens to increase imports thus increasing the trade deficit (Fleegler, 2006). Onafowora et al (2006) also argued that in this framework, an increase in government deficit spending will cause an increase in aggregate demand and the domestic interest rate. If the domestic interest rate is higher than the world interest rate, there will be a net capital inflow from abroad and the domestic currency will appreciate. This results to a rise in imports, a fall in export and the deterioration of the current account balance. Harshemzadeh and Wilson (2006) also posited that an increase in the fiscal deficit will lead to current account imbalance by driving up domestic interest rates, exchange rate and rate of capital inflows. Chang and Hsu (2009) equally argued that the increase in the budget deficit induces an upward pressure on interest rates which in turn trigger capital inflows and an appreciation of exchange rates ultimately leading to an increase in the current account deficit. Arize and Melinderos (2008) pointed out that even though the Mundell-Fleming suggests a unidirectional causality from budget deficit to current account deficit, there could be a reverse causality from the current account deficit to the budget deficit. This can come about if there is a change in expected inflation. A decrease in expected inflation would lead to currency appreciation and thus decrease net exports and increase the trade deficits. Chang and Hsu (2009) also provided another possible explanation reverse causality between the budget deficit and current account deficit by stating that this reversal could occur if deterioration in the current account balance leads to a slower pace of growth and hence an increase in the budget deficit. Kim and Kim (2006) equally argued that out reverse causality could be as a result of excessive trade deficits plunging an economy into a recession and subsequently leading to a financial or solvency crisis in which large injections of public fund may be needed to rehabilitate the struggling financial sector or minimize the severity of a recession. This reverse causality was referred to as “current account targeting” and suggests that external adjustments may be sought through the budget or fiscal policy. Furthermore, Arize and Melinderos (2008) posited that bidirectional causality could also exist between the twin deficits whereby the existence of significant feedbacks causes causality to run in both directions. This was corroborated by Chang and Hsu (2009). Thus, it becomes necessary to complement budget-cut policies with a coherent package, focusing on policies for export promotion, productivity improvement and exchange rate (Arize and Melinderos, 2008). 152 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis An alternative explanation for the existence of long run equilibrium relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit is based on the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH) which is commonly associated with the work of Barro (1989). He stated that the ricardian equivalence implies that taxpayers do not view government bonds as net wealth; hence its acquisition by individuals does not alter their consumption behaviour. Critics of the Mundell-Fleming framework question the sequence of causation described by the model and thus employed the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis to argue the absence of any relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit. These proponents argue that in a Ricardian world, it is believed that a budget deficit that is financed through a tax cut and bond sales would be perceived by individuals as incurring future tax liabilities to service and retire the increased debt (Onafowora and Owoye, 2006; Yanik, 2006 and Ratha, 2011). The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis dispenses entirely with the income-expenditure approach and relied instead on the inter-temporal approach. They asserted that since a government‟s means of finance do not alter private agents‟ inter-temporal budget constraints; the real interest rate, the quantity of investment or current account balance will not be affected. They claimed that budget deficits do not cause any interest and exchange rate changes which thus have no effect on the current account imbalances (Chang and Hsu (2009). The main assumption of the REH is that changes in budget deficit will have no effects on domestic interest rates, total savings, investment, price level and national income; thus not having effect on current account balance. The argument is that a reduction in taxes which is accompanied by an increase in budget deficit does not affect growth of consumption and hence, does not have any expansionary effect as households tend to increase savings in anticipation of higher taxes in the future which are necessary to redeem the debt (Gadong, 2009). Furthermore, Mamdouh (2000) posited that a tax cut (leading to a budget deficit) has the effect of reducing public revenues and public savings thus enlarging the budget deficit. This however, increases private savings by an amount equal to the expected increase in the tax burden in future years (Arize and Melinderos, 2008). In other words, savings will respond positively to the changes in budget deficit leaving the trade deficit unaltered. Equally, if the government runs a deficit by borrowing, economic agents being rational will expect that government will raise future taxes to finance the borrowing (budget deficit) and so they will rather increase their savings to meet the future tax burden. Thus, alterations in the composition of public financing will have no impact on real interest rate, aggregate demand, private spending, exchange rate and ultimately, the current account balance (Arize and Melinderos, 2008). However, the ricardian equivalence theorem argues that either ways of financing the deficit (through reduced taxes or issuance of bonds), the present value wealth of private households is not altered since both temporarily reduced taxes and issuance of bonds represents future tax liabilities (Hakro, 2009). Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 153 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi Methodological and Empirical Review In analysing the relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit, the most commonly used method employed in estimation is the co-integration approach, the Granger causality test, Vector Error Correction(VEC) model and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model (Chang and Hsu, 2009; Hashemzadeh and Wilson, 2006). The nature of this relationship is said to vary across countries and periods and different studies arrived at different conclusions as a results of difference in data set used and methodologies (Hashemzadeh and Wilson, 2006). Abbas et al (2010) identified three categories of methodologies broadly used to study the twin deficits relationship. The first category studies the impact of fiscal policy on external balance using causality tests and VARs. The second category analyze the long term correlation between indicators of fiscal policy and external imbalances using co-integration techniques and single or panel regression techniques. The third category invokes the narrative approach to identify exogenous changes in fiscal policy and uses regression analysis to study the impact on external imbalances. This study takes a look at a review of some of the methods used in some previous studies carried out on the twin deficit relationship. Arize and Melinderos (2008) employed the conventional fractional co-integration approach and the multivariate Wald test for Granger causality in testing for dynamic linkages and causality between the budget and trade deficits for selected countries in Africa. Their study found a unidirectional causality and thus supported the twin deficit hypothesis. Ganchev (2010) used VAR and VEC model in his analysis for Bulgaria and his results rejected the twin deficit hypothesis in the short run but indicated it might be valid in the long run. Egwaikhide (1997) did a simulation exercise by constructing a number of behavioural equations using descriptive statistics such as t-values, F-test, DW test, R2 and the standard error of the regression. His simulation experiments show that budget deficit, engendered by increased expenditure, leads to a deterioration of the current account. Korsu (2006) performed a similar simulation experiment to that of Egwaikhide (1997) to investigate the effects of fiscal deficits on the external sector performance for Sierra Leone, but he used a 3 Stage Least Squares (3SLS) approach. His study could not directly identify the direction of causality. Shukur and Hatemi (2002) tested the causality direction between the twin deficits in the US using the Rao‟s multivariate F-test combined with Bootstraps simulation technique which they argued has appealing properties. Their study found that there is a uni-directional causality which runs from current account deficit to budget deficit. Specifically, budget deficit granger causes current account deficit for 1975 to 1989 sub-period, while current account deficit granger causes budget deficit for the 1990 to 1998 sub-period. Afonso and Rault (2009) equally employed the Bootstrap panel Granger causality test to investigate existence of causality between current account balance and budget balance for different EU and OECD countries. Their results showed a causal relation from budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, along the lines of the so-called twin-deficit relationship. 154 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination Olga (2000) employed co-integration and Granger-causality test and found the transmission mechanism between the two deficits to be mainly through the exchange rate for Ukraine. The finding showed that budget deficits and current account deficit were co-integrated while uni-directional causality from budget deficit to current account deficit existed. Yanik (2006) employed co-integration, Granger-causality, VEC and impulse response in his methodology while using quarterly data for Turkey. He found that both deficits are counter-cyclical and move together in the long run indicating uni-directional causality, where current account deficit causes budget deficit, but not the reverse. Zamanzadeh and Mehrara (2011) and Celik and Deliz (undated) also used the same techniques of estimation for Iran and a number of emerging economies respectively. Their findings showed that bi-directional relationship existed between the government budget deficit and non-oil current account. Brian (undated) also used quarterly data of Argentina with co-integration, Granger-causality and chow test. He found that there was no determinable Granger-causal relationship between budget data and trade deficit data. Likewise Mukhtar et al (2007) who made use of quarterly time series data for Pakistan employing co-integration technique and Granger-causality test. Their study found that a long run relationship exists between the two deficits and also there was bi-directional causality between the two deficits. Zengin (n.d)’s VAR model for Turkey indicated that trade deficit do not directly bring (Granger-causes) about budget deficits but that budget deficit directly affects trade deficits. Ratha (2011) employed the Bounds-testing approach to co-integration and error correction modelling on the monthly and quarterly data of India. He concluded that twin-deficits theory holds in the short-run, but not in the long run for India. Baharumshah, et al (2006) examined the twin deficit hypothesis in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand using co-integration, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the VAR model. Their study found long run relationships between budget and current account deficits. Also, for Thailand, there was a unidirectional relationship, which runs from budget deficit to current account deficit. For Indonesia the reverse causation (current account targeting) was detected while the empirical results indicate that a bi-directional pattern of causality exists for Malaysia and the Philippines. Abbas et al (2010) used panel regression and panel VAR for a number of countries ranging from low income countries to emerging economies and then advanced economies in his methodology. They concluded that the association between fiscal policy and the emergence of large external imbalances is limited. Hashemzadeh and Wade (2006) and Evan and Tang (2009) in emphasizing the dynamic relation between the two deficits employed the VAR technique and causality tests in their methodology for Cambodia, a transition economy in South East Asia. Hashemzadeh and Wade (2006) empirical findings suggest that the incidence of twin deficits appears to be country specific. And the observed cross-country variations with respect to the effects of fiscal deficits on current account deficits tend to show that the dynamic relationship between the two deficits is subject to change depending on the underlying tax system, trade patterns and barriers, monetary regimes, the exchange rate and a complex host of internal and international forces that shape a country’s economic status in the global economy. Furthermore, their findings indicated that the presence Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 155 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi and the direction of causality between the two deficits is generally country specific and ambiguous in certain cases. For Evan and Tang (2009), their study of Cambodia also supports the twin deficits hypothesis in which the budget deficits do cause external deficits, in the short run while these two variables are moving together in the long run. Chang and Hsu (2009) and Evan et al. (undated) adopted the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) modified WALD (MWALD) for testing Granger non-causality to evaluate the budget-current account nexus for the regional economy and Malaysia respectively. Chang and Hsu (2009) claimed that budget deficits do not cause any interest and exchange rate changes which thus have no effect on the current account imbalances while Evan et al (n.d) did not find a significant effect of the budget deficit on the current account. Fleegler (2006) did a cross-country empirical approach by employing the multi co-integration analysis in his methodology. The findings suggest that an economy’s susceptibility to the twin deficits may be time-specific and influenced by a variety of factors. And specifically, a country’s susceptibility is in part influenced by where the country is in the development process, who it trades with, and what it imports and exports. Rauf and Khah (2011) investigated the relationship between the twin deficit in Pakistan using simple OLS regression technique and Granger causality. They found that increase in the budget deficit is caused by a decrease of trade account deficit (the largest component in the current account) Egwaikhide et al (2002) employed simple regression equation and Granger-causality tests in their own methodology for a number of West African countries which includes Nigeria and found that budget deficit leads to a deterioration of the current account balance. Saleh (2006) employed the Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM) and bounds test (co-integration test) in testing the Keynesian proposition for Lebanon and his findings partially supported the Keynesian view of the “twin deficit” hypothesis. Schismita and Sudipta (2011) provided fresh evidence on the twin deficit hypothesis for India within a multi-dimensional system by giving descriptive statistics and analysis. Their study found that there was a reverse causation in the twin deficit hypothesis for India and oil prices helped complete the chain of reverse causation. Also, the direction of causation is unambiguously seen to run from oil prices to the external deficit to the fiscal deficit Onafowora and Owoye (2006) found a positive relationship between trade and budget deficits in both the short run and long run. Their results supported the conventional Keynesian twin deficits position and refute the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis for Nigeria. Olga (2000) found budget deficit and current account to be co-integrated in which case budget deficit Granger-causes a current account deficit for Ukraine. Ganchev (2010) found the existence of dual causality between fiscal and current account deficits for the Bulgarian economy. Yanik (2006) using quarterly data of Turkey supported the REH or the twin divergence theory, stating that causality runs from current account deficit to budget deficits. Brian (undated) did the twin deficit analysis for Argentina and also did not find any relationship to exist between the two deficits. Zengin (undated) on the other hand supported the twin deficit hypothesis as he found budget deficit to influence trade balance. Ratha (2011) empirical results suggested that the twin deficit theory holds for India in the short run but not in the long-run. 156 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination Abbas et al. (2010) found the association between fiscal policy and emergence of large external imbalances to be limited. An improvement in the fiscal balance of 1% of GDP improves the current account balance by 0.2-0.3 percent of GDP upon impact in emerging and low income economies. Hashemzadeh and Wilson (2006) emphasized that the dynamic relationship between the two deficits is subject to change, depending on the underlying tax system, trade patterns and barriers, exchange rate and a host of internal and international forces that help to shape an economy. Chang and Hsu (2009) provided broader evidence on the debate of causal linkage between the budget and current account deficits for five North European countries, four Asian Tigers and the United States, concluding that most of the countries supported the twin deficit hypothesis but the strength varies across countries noting that none of the countries studied supported the REH. Fleegler (2006) did a cross-country empirical approach of countries at different stages of development to ascertain the validity of the twin deficit theory and found multiple factors contribute to a country‟s susceptibility to the twin deficit. Such factors include the country‟s stage in its developmental process and its trading partners. Egwaikhide et al (2002)’s empirical result revealed that for 16 African countries including Nigeria, budget deficit leads to a deterioration of the current account balance. Mukhtar et al (2007) made use of quarterly data in testing the twin deficit theory in Pakistan and found a long run relationship to exist between budget and current account deficit. Their study however put a doubt on the use of single-equation approach to analysing the twin deficit hypothesis. Kulkarmi and Erickson (2001) tested the twin deficit hypothesis with the annual data of India, Pakistan and Mexico. They found no evidence of twin deficits and causality in Mexico, strong evidence for India and Pakistan. However, causality for Pakistan was in opposite direction, that is, a reverse causality. Zamanzadeh and Mehrara (2011) found support for the twin deficit hypothesis in Iran, likewise the study of Jayaraman and Choong (2008) in Vanuatu, a small open Island economy in South Pacific. Celik and Deniz (undated) analyzed the Keynesian well-known twin deficit hypothesis for a group of emerging countries using quarterly data, they found support for the twin deficit theory. Saleh (2006) observed that in the case of Lebanon, causality runs from trade deficit to budget deficit, supporting the Keynesian view that there is a linkage between the two deficits. Shukur and Hatemi (2002) employed the Rao‟s multivariate F-test combined with bootstraps simulation technique in testing for the twin deficit phenomenon in the US. They found structural breaks to be of paramount importance when causality test was conducted as both budget deficit and current account did not granger cause each other using the whole sample. After splitting the sample into two sub periods, results showed that budget deficit causes current account deficits in the first period while the opposite occurred for the second period. Mukhtar et al (2007) found a long run relationship between the deficits and bi-directional causality using quarterly time series data for Pakistan. Rauf and Khan (2011) using annual data found reverse causality to be strong in Pakistan. Ratha (2011) employed the bounds-testing approach to co-integration and error correction modelling on monthly and quarterly data for India and concluded that the Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 157 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi twin deficit theory holds in the short run while the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis is what holds in the long run. The findings of Suchismita and Sudiptal (2011) supported reverse causality for India. Zengin (n.d) found support for the twin deficit hypothesis in Turkey using a VAR model and posterior probability bounds test. On the other hand, Yanik (2006), using Turkish quarterly data and the method of Granger-noncausality tests and VAR, found both budget deficit and current account to be countercyclical and supported the “twin divergence” or ricardian equivalence hypothesis for Turkey. Momdouth (2002) found that neither the twin deficit hypothesis nor the ricardian equivalence hypothesis was valid for Saudi Arabia as a petroleum economy. Zamanzadeh and Mehrara (2011) found support for the twin deficit hypothesis for Iran rather than the ricardian equivalence hypothesis. Neaime (2008)’s empirical results for Lebanon showed support for the existence of uni-directional causal relationship in the short run from budget deficit to current account deficit. Celik and Deniz (n.d) analysed the twin deficit phenomenon for 6 emerging economies and found support for the twin deficit hypothesis using advanced econometric techniques for the panel data. Arize and Melinderos (2008) using a panel of 10 African countries revealed that a positive long run relation exists however, weak link between the two deficits was found in the short run and that budget deficits causes current account deficits. Below is a summary of empirical studies, their type of data set, the methodology they employed and their results in tabular form. Table 1. Synopsis of Empirical Studies from the Literature S/N Author Methodology Transmission Mechanism Direction of Causality Findings/Results 1. Onafowora and Owoye (2006) Nigeria, annual data, 1970-2001, co-integration, Granger-causality and VEC model. Interest rate was found to be strongly exogenous. Uni-directional Causality from trade deficit to budget deficit. A positive long run relationship exists between trade deficits and budget deficits. Supports conventional “twin deficit” hypothesis 2. Olga (2000) Ukraine, quarterly data, 1995:1 to 1999:4, cointegration and Granger-causality. Transmission works mainly through the exchange rate. Uni-directional Causality from budget deficit to current account deficit. Budget deficits and current account deficit were found to be co-integrated. 3. Ganchev (2010) Bulgaria, annual data, 2000-2010, Granger-causality, VAR and VEC model. Dual causality between fiscal and current account deficits. Findings reject the “twin deficit” hypothesis in the short-run, but indicate that it might be valid in the long run. 158 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination 4. Yanik (2006) Turkey, quarterly data, 1988:1 to 2005:2, cointegration, Granger noncausality, VAR and impulse-response analysis. Short-run impacts of budget deficit on current account deficit are through the real exchange rate and real interest rate channels. Uni-directional causality, current account deficit causes budget deficit, but not the reverse. Both deficits (CAD and BD) are counter-cyclical and move together in the long run. Supports “twin divergence” or the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis. Uni-directional causality Supports twin deficit hypothesis. Direct causal relation exists from budget deficit to trade deficit. Supports the conventional “twin deficit” hypothesis. 5. Arize and Melinderos (2008) 10 African countries, quarterly period 1973:2 to 2005:4. Fractional co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. 6. Zengin (undated) Turkey, quarterly data, 1987:1 to 1998:1, Granger-causality and VAR model. 7. Ratha (2011) India, monthly and quarterly data, 1998-2009, bounds-testing approach to co-integration and error-correction modelling. 8. Abbas et al. (2010) 124 countries, annual data, 19852007, panel VAR. Association between fiscal policy and the emergence of large external imbalances is limited. The impact is longer-lasting in emerging countries than in advanced countries. 9. Hashemzadeh and Wade (2006) Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Syria, Oman, Morocco, Turkey and Yemen. Annual data, 19701990. Causality test and VAR. Correlation between the two deficits is both complex and ambiguous. Dynamic relationship between the two deficits is subject to change depending on some underlying factors. Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 Transmission is through interest rate and exchange rate. Twin-deficits theory holds in the shortrun, but not in the long run. 159 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi 10. Chang and Hsu (2009) 5 North European countries, 4 Asian Tigers and the United States. Annual and quarterly data,1980 to 2007 Modified WALD test and Granger non-causality procedure. 11. Fleegler (2006) 12. Direction of causality varies across the different countries. Shows support for “twin deficit” hypothesis, though the strength varies across countries. US, South Korea, Mexico, Peru and Costa Rica, annual data, 1970-2004. Multi co-integration analysis. Significant positive correlation exist between the twin deficits for most of the economies. An economy’s susceptibility to the twin deficits may be time-specific and influenced by a variety of factors. Egwaikhide et al. (2002) 16 African countries, annual data, 1970-1999, OLS and Granger-causality test. In group, causality runs from current account to budget deficit. Budget deficit leads to a deterioration of the current account balance 13. Mukhtar et al. (2007) Pakistan, quarterly time series data, 1975-2005, co-integration, Granger-causality and simultaneous equation model. Bi-directional causality runs between the two deficits. A long run relationship exists between the two deficits. 14. Saleh (2006) Lebanon, annual data, 1975-2003, co-integration (bounds test), Granger-causality and Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM) Causality runs from trade deficit to budget deficit. Results partially support the Keynesian view of the “twin deficit” hypothesis. 15 Zamanzadeh and Mehrara (2011) Iran, annual data, 1959-2007, co-integration technique and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Bi-directional relationship exists between the government budget deficit and non-oil current account. Supports the twin deficit hypothesis. 160 Transmission mechanism varies across different countries. For some, interest rate, for others, exchange rate. Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination 16 Celik and Deniz (undated) Brazil, Czech Republic, South Africa, Colombia, Mexico and Turkey, quarterly data, 1996Q1 to 2006Q4, panel co-integration technique. Twin deficit hypothesis is supported using advanced econometric techniques for the panel data. 17. Jayaraman and Choong (2008) Vanuatu, annual data, 1983-2005 Evidence support twin deficit hypothesis. Source: Compiled by the Authors In some of the studies where evidence has been inconclusive, many reasons can be adduced to this. One important factor is the differences in data set used and methodologies (Hashemzadeh and Wade, 2006). Another reason include the possibility of excessive trade deficits plunging an economy into a recession and subsequently leading to a financial or solvency crisis in which large injections of public fund may be needed to rehabilitate the struggling financial sector or minimize the severity of a recession, Kim and Kim (2006). Some Stylized Facts on the Twin Deficits in Nigeria Nigeria is an oil-exporting country where the revenues from oil production contribute more than 95% of its foreign exchange earnings, 40% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 80% of its fiscal revenues (Onafowokan and Owoye, 2006). The economy therefore provides a good study to test if the theory of the twin deficit on the direction of causality is valid as this dependency exposes the country to oil price shock and volatility, thereby causing fluctuations in government revenues leading to erratic patterns in public expenditure. A striking feature of Nigeria‟s fiscal operations since the second half of the 1970s is persistent and rising budget deficits (Egwaikhide, 1997). These rising budget deficits were according to Gadong (2009) as a result of the oil boom of the early 1970s, in which case the discovery and exploration of oil in commercial quantity led to an escalation in the government budget. In 1975, with the oil glut, fiscal deficits emerged in the economy. This trend continued until 1994 with the exception of 1979 and later in 1997, the trend started again. Nigeria was one of the many developing countries that adopted the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) during the mid-1980s in the attempt to reduce the role of the public sector in the economy, reduce the share of fiscal deficit in the GDP, restore balance of payment equilibrium and maintain a stable price level (Onafowokan and Owoye, 2006). But as argued by Gadong (2009), the growth of government bureaucracy permitted by the oil boom, as well as the establishment of public corporations that had to be maintained even after government revenue (mainly from oil) had declined made government expenditures to remain high. Table 2 shows the budget and current Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 161 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi account deficit of Nigeria from 1982 to 2010. From the table, it can be observed that over the periods when fiscal deficits were sustained, these deficits as proportions of GDP went as high as 12.44 percent in 1982, 11.94 percent in 1986, 11.45 percent in 1991, 9.53 percent in 1993 and 8.93 percent in 1999. This aggravated the economy’s debt profile from both domestic and foreign source prior to the debt cancellation the country received in 2005. Notice that fiscal deficits for the years between 1982 and 1994 all exceeded 4 percent of GDP. Also, developments in the external sector revealed that periodic deficits in the current account have characterized Nigeria‟s balance of payment profile. Egwaikhide (1997) stated that the current account deficit deteriorated from N259 million in 1976 to N5.2 billion in 1982, though relatively large surpluses were recorded in the last 12 years. A close inspection of available data from figure 1a and 1b show some degree of association between budget deficit and the current account deficit for most of the years. Budget deficit was recorded for most of the years, though some years experienced a current account surplus. Figure 1a. Graph of Budget and Current Account Deficits for Nigeria, 1970 to 2010 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 CAD BD Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin (2010) 162 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination Figure 1b. Graph of Budget and Current Account Deficits for Nigeria (1970 – 2010) Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin (2010) From the graph above, it can be observed in the earlier periods, both deficits move together even as they fluctuate. From the 1990s to recent periods, the current account balance has been more of a surplus than a deficit while the budget balance continues to be in deficit. This brings to mind the issue of the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis for the Nigerian economy being a oil-dependent economy. In other words, if the hypothesis holds for Nigeria, does causality still run from budget deficit to current account deficit? According to Mamdouh (2002), the Keynesian approach which implies the existence of a direct relationship from the budget deficit towards the trade deficit may not be applicable to an oil-based economy. This is because the basic source of income in an oil-based economy like Nigeria is revenue from oil export and these revenues affect government revenue and export of goods and services. It thus becomes imperative to ascertain if the direction of causality will flow from current account deficit to budget deficit. Model Specification Following the theoretical literature and methodology of previous empirical studies, a model can thus be specified for this study that current account deficits of Nigeria depends on government budget deficits, domestic income(real GDP), money supply, domestic interest rates and real exchange rate. Theoretically, the relationship between the twin deficits can be presented in an implicit form to give this equation: CADt = f (BDt, MONt, RGDPt, INTt, RERt) (1) The explicit form of the model showing the linear relationship between current account deficit and budget deficit is given as follows: Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 163 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi CADt = αo + α1BDt + α2MONt + α3RGDPt + α4INTt + α5RERt + et (2) Where CABt is current account balance as a percentage of GDP; BDt is budget balance as a percentage GDP; MONt is broad money supply as a percentage of GDP; RGDPt is real GDP (proxy for domestic income); INTt is the prime lending rate; RERt is the real exchange rate and et is a white noise disturbance. α1, α2, α3, α4 and α5 are the unknown parameters. Technique of Estimation The econometric analysis of the relationship between the fiscal and current account deficits usually involves the application of Granger causality (Chang and Hsu, 2006, Ganchev, 2010) and Vector Autoregressive Models (Hashemzadeh and Wilson, 2006). Thus, in line with most empirical work on twin deficit hypothesis, this study tests for the long run equilibrium relationship and direction of causality between budget and current account deficit. In doing this, the study will carry out a stationarity test, cointegration test and multivariate Granger causality test. The stationarity test helped determine if the time series are stationary or not as empirical literature has argued that estimation of time series data that have unit root will produce a spurious result. Also, the co-integration procedure will help explore the possible long run relationships among the variables in the model and interpret the evidence of this relationship as the interdependence between the variables. The Granger causality test will be carried out within the multivariate framework as against the bivariate framework that is commonly used. This will help to determine the direction of causality and feedback among the variables. The Granger causality test thus helps to determine the direction of causality between the current account deficits and the budget deficit. This study however employs an alternative methodology for testing the causality direction between the twin deficits for Nigeria, which is the multivariate Granger-causality rather than the bivariate framework. The results of the multivariate framework are said to be more informative and reliable than the results of the bivariate framework, (Tang, 2010). Also, the Granger causality tests with the bivariate framework are likely to be biased owing to the omission of relevant variables that affects the relationship between the two deficits and their interacting variables. The basic idea of the Granger causality is that one variable or time series can be called “causal” to another if the ability to predict the second variable is improved by incorporating information about the first, (Barret et al, 2010; Onafowokan et al, 2006). In other words, variable Y granger-causes X if in a statistically suitable manner, Y assists in predicting the future of X beyond the degree to which X already predicts its own future. According to Barret et al (2010), the Granger causality idea can be extended to the conditional case as well where Y is said to Granger cause Y conditional on Z if Y assists in predicting the future of X beyond the degree to which X and Z together already predict the future of X. This conditional Granger causality is what is termed multivariate Granger causality (Barret et al, 2010). 164 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination The Granger causality test will be performed with annual data of budget, current account deficit data and the interacting variables between the two deficits. The Augmented form of the Granger causality test involving the ECM is formulated in a multivariate pth order Vector Error Correction (VEC) model and is given below: ∆Yt = Ci + Ʃ Пt ∆Yt-k + λi + ECMt-1 – 1 + εit (3) Where: ∆Yt = 6x1 vector matrix of variables. Пt = 6x6 square matrix of βit ∆Yt-k = 6x1 vector matrix of lagged values of variables. ECMit = 6x1 vector matrix of the error correction model. εit = 6x1 vector matrix of the error terms. The above matrix equations can also be written in the following form: ∆CADt = α1 + Ʃβ1∆CADt-i + Ʃθ1∆BDt-i + Ʃδ1∆MONt-i + Ʃγ1∆RGDPt-i + Ʃλ1∆INTt-i + Ʃρ1∆RERt-1 + ПECMt-1 + εt (4) ∆BDt = α2 + Ʃβ2∆BDt-i + Ʃθ2∆CADt-i + Ʃδ2∆MONt-i + Ʃγ2∆RGDPt-i + Ʃλ2∆INTt-i + Ʃρ2∆RERt-1 + ПECMt-1 + εt (5) ∆MONt = α3 + Ʃβ3∆CADt-i + Ʃθ3∆BDt-i + Ʃδ3∆MONt-i + Ʃγ3∆RGDPt-i + Ʃλ3∆INTt-i + Ʃρ3∆RERt-1 + ПECMt-1 + εt (6) ∆RGDPt = α4 + Ʃβ4∆CADt-i + Ʃθ4∆BDt-i + Ʃδ4∆MONt-i + Ʃγ4∆RGDPt-i + Ʃλ4∆INTt-i + Ʃρ4∆RERt-1 + ПECMt-1 + εt (7) ∆INTt = α5 + Ʃβ5∆CADt-i + Ʃθ5∆BDt-i + Ʃδ5∆MONt-i + Ʃγ5∆RGDPt-i + Ʃλ5∆INTt-i + Ʃρ5∆RERt-1 + ПECMt-1 + εt (8) ∆RERt = α6 + Ʃβ6∆CADt-i + Ʃθ6∆BDt-i + Ʃδ6∆MONt-i + Ʃγ6∆RGDPt-i + Ʃλ6∆INTt-i + Ʃρ6∆RERt-1 + ПECMt-1 + εt (9) The choice of the test is in line with the Mudell-Fleming theory. Many studies have been done using the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH) especially in Nigeria as such this study tries to extend this by using the Mudell-Fleming theory. Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 165 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi Description of Variables and A priori Expectations Current Account Deficit as a percentage of GDP (CAD): This represents the sum of the difference between imports of goods and services, exports of goods and services plus net income from abroad and is measured as percentage of GDP. It is the dependent variable in the model of the twin deficit. Budget Deficit as a percentage of GDP (BD): This represents the excess of government expenditure over revenues for different years measured as percentage of GDP. It is expected to have a positive sign as increases in government budget deficit will lead to a deterioration of the current account balance while reduction in budget deficit will improve the current account balance. Money Supply as percentage of GDP (MON): This is simply defined as M2 which is broad money calculated as a percentage of GDP. It consists of narrow money in addition to savings and time deposits with banks including foreign denominated deposits. It is expected to have a positive sign as increases in money supply will improve the current account balance, that is reduce the current account deficit in the long run. Real Gross Domestic Income (RGDP): This is used as a proxy for domestic income. It is the Gross Domestic Product at constant basic prices and is expected to be negatively signed as increases in domestic income have the effect of worsening (enlarging) the current account deficits in the long run. Interest Rate (INT): This is the Prime lending rate which is the interest rate charged by banks to customers for loanable funds which is to be used for investment purposes. This is expected to be negatively signed as increases in domestic interest rate which is as a result of increases in aggregate demand will increase imports and worsen the current account balance in the long run. Real Exchange Rate (RER): This is the official exchange rate at which the local currency which is the naira exchanges for a dollar. It is expected to have a negative sign as the appreciation of the domestic currency will worsen the current account balance in the long run and vice versa. Data Sources and Measurement This study made use of annual data for Nigeria for the period 1970 to 2010 (40 years). The current account balance, budget balance and the money supply (M2) were calculated as percentage of GDP and is represented by CABt, BBt and MONt respectively. Also, to account for different channels of interaction between the current account balance and the budget balance, other variables were included in the analysis. They include Real GDP (as a proxy for domestic income) represented as RGDP, treasury bills rate (used as a proxy for interest rate) and represented as TBR and real interest rate represented as RER. All the variables are in percentage in exception of Real GDP which is in naira, the interest rate which is in rate and the exchange rate which represents the rate at which the naira exchanges for a dollar. The data for the study was 166 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination sourced from the 2010 edition of the CBN Statistical Bulletin and the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI). Presentation and Discussion of Results Correlation Matrix The correlation matrix helps to identify the level of correlation that exists among the independent variables. From Table 2, it can be observed that budget deficit has a 44 percent positive correlation with the current account deficit while real exchange rate has a strong positive correlation with the current account deficit with 58 percent. This implies that budget deficit is averagely correlated with the current account deficit. Also, only money supply has a negative and weak correlation of about 26 percent with current account deficit. In the same vein, the RGDP and the interest rate has a positive correlation of 50 percent and 29 percent respectively. Table 2. Correlation Matrix CAD BD MON RGDP INT CAD 1.000 BD 0.434 1.000 MON -0.266 -0.554 1.000 RGDP 0.501 0.010 0.235 1.000 INT 0.293 -0.243 -0.188 0.606 1.000 RER 0.579 0.184 0.027 0.886 0.462 Source: Author’s computation with E-Views RER 1.000 Where CAD is current account deficit as a percentage of GDP, BD is budget deficit as percentage of GDP, MON is money supply as percentage of GDP, RGDP is real GDP, INT is prime interest rate and RER is official exchange rate. Unit Root Test The next step is the determination of the time series properties of each variable based on unit root tests. This is used to determine if the time series variables under observation are stationary or not. This is because most time series data sets are often found not to be stationary and estimation with such data produces a spurious result. Various methods are often used to test for stationarity of variables, they include Dickey-Fuller (1979 & 1981), Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979), GLS Detrended Dickey-Fuller (GLS-DF, 1996), Phillips-Perron (1998), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS, 1992), NgPerron (2001) among others. However, this study employed the Augmented DickeyFuller (ADF) unit root test to test for non-stationarity or otherwise of the variables. Table 3 below presents the results of the stationarity test for each of the variables. Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 167 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi Table 3. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test SERIES ADF at Levels ADF at First Difference Order of Integration CAD -3.499651** -6.782101 I (O) BD -4.013597* -9.203227 I (O) MON -1.621164 -5.885483* I (1) RGDP 1.975411 -5.303351* I (1) INR -1.472475 -9.781999* I (1) RER 0.571636 -5.795255* I (1) Source: Author’s computation with E-views Note: A variable is stationary when the ADF t-stat is greater than the critical values at a given level of significance. * and ** indicates stationarity at 1 percent and 5 percent level of significance. From the table 3 above, it can be observed that only the budget deficit and current account were stationarity at levels at 1 percent and 5 percent level of significance respectively, the others were found not to be stationary at levels. However, all the variables became stationary after the first differencing; in other words, all the variables were integrated of order 1 that is I(1). Thus, the null hypothesis of the presence of a unit root is rejected at first difference as the absolute values of the ADF statistics were greater than the critical values at 1 percent level of significance. Co-integration Test Having ascertained the order of co-integration, the next step is to test for the existence of a long run relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit together with their interacting variables. The purpose of the co-integration test is to determine whether a group of non-stationary series is co-integrated or not. Engle and Granger (1987) pointed out that if the linear combination of non-stationary series exists, then the non-stationary time series are said to be co-integrated. The stationary linear combination is called the co-integrating equation and may be interpreted as a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables. In the study, the multivariate Johansen co-integration test will be used as against the Engle and Granger two-step procedure. According to Tang (2010), the major advantage of using the multivariate co-integration approach is that it has superior properties in particular for two or more variables in a system as it is not sensitive to the choice of dependent variables as it assumes all variables to be endogenous. Also, the Johansen test is preferred to the Engle and Granger two step procedure as the latter first estimates the regression equation and test for stationarity of the residual, this can bring about the transmission of errors. In addition, the Johansen method shows the number of co-integrating equations as well as the estimation of the long run equation which is not possible with the Engle and Granger two step procedures (Arize and Melinderos, 2008). 168 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination Johansen proposes two different likelihood ratio tests of significance of theses economical correlations. These are the trace tests and the maximum eigen value tests. The trace test statistics tests the null hypothesis “there are at most r co integrating relations” against the alternative hypothesis of “m co integrating relations” (that is, the series are stationary), r = 0, 1, 2, ..., m-1. The maximum eigen value on the other hand test the null hypothesis “there are co-integrating relations” against the alternative hypothesis “there are r + 1 co-integrating relations”. The co-integration rank test which is to test the number of co- integrating vectors was done under the assumption that the series have no deterministic trend and have intercept. This is because a number of the variables were found to have intercepts when the line graph was constructed. The results of the Johansen co-integration test is presented in table 4 and 5. Table 4. Johansen Co-integration Test (For Trace Stat.) Hypothesized Trace 0.05 No. of CE(s) Eigen value Statistic Critical Value Prob.** None * 0.683006 130.3979 103.8473 0.0003 At most 1 * 0.589095 85.59187 76.97277 0.0095 At most 2 0.463455 50.90557 54.07904 0.0932 At most 3 0.350045 26.62396 35.19275 0.3082 At most 4 0.158355 9.820732 20.26184 0.6574 At most 5 0.076345 3.097264 9.164546 0.5627 Source: Author’s computation with E-views. Trace indicates 2 co-integrating equations at 0.05 level. * denotes rejection of hypothesis at 0.05 level. Table 5. Johansen Co-integration Test (Max-Eigen value Stat.) Hypothesized No. of CE(s) None * At most 1 At most 2 At most 3 At most 4 At most 5 Eigen value 0.683006 0.589095 0.463455 0.350045 0.158355 0.076345 Max-Eigen Statistic 44.80599 34.68630 24.28162 16.80322 6.723468 3.097264 0.05 Critical Value 40.95680 34.80587 28.58808 22.29962 15.89210 9.164546 Source: Author’s computation with E-views. Max-Eigen stats indicate 1 co-integrating equation at 0.05 level. * denotes rejection of hypothesis at 0.05 level. Prob.** 0.0176 0.0517 0.1613 0.2450 0.7031 0.5627 The result of the trace and maximum Eigen value summarized in Table 4 and 5 Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 169 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi indicates the possibility of rejecting the null hypothesis that says there are no cointegrating vectors at 5 percent level of significance. This confirms the existence of long run equilibrium relationship between budget deficit and the current account deficit as the trace statistics indicates 2 co-integrating relationship while the maximum Eigen value indicates 1 co-integrating relationship, which means that they do not diverge away from each other in the long run. However, in this study, the indication of the maximum Eigen value test is followed. This is because the maximum Eigen value test is more likely to give normal result as regards the number of equations in the model that would converge towards the long run equilibrium path. Table 6. Normalized Co-integrating Coefficients (Standard Error in Parenthesis) CAD BD MON LRGDP INT RER C 1.000000 0.275883 0.443051 -4.24E-06 -0.385598 -0.165482 -5.985680 (0.42769) (0.20966) (1.4E-05) (0.29101) (0.04313) (5.75258) Source: Author’s computation with E-views Max-Eigen stats indicate 1 co-integrating equation at 0.05 level. * denotes rejection of hypothesis at 0.05 level. Furthermore, the estimates of the normalized co-integrating vector generated by the cointegration test is reported at the bottom of table 6 showing long run effect of budget deficit (BD) and the other interacting variables. The related t-statistics are reported in parenthesis below each coefficient. The existence of a unique co-integrating vector here implies that equilibrium relationship exists among the co-integrating variables and that no matter the fluctuation in the short run; these variables have a tendency to return to this equilibrium path in the long run. In other words, given an initial disequilibrium, the co-integrating variables will not wander away from one another endlessly but will eventually return to its established equilibrium path. From the normalized co-integrating coefficients above, it can be observed that only money supply and exchange rates were found to be statistically significant given their t-statistics. Also, the budget deficit and money supply were negatively signed while the RGDP, interest rate and exchange rate were positively signed. In other words, in the long run, a 1 percent change in BD will lead to approximately a 28 percent decrease in the current account deficit but it is not significant. Also, a 1 percent change in money supply will result to about 44 percent decrease in the current account. Multivariate Granger Causality Test Given that the variables are not co-integrated, the ECM (using the Johansen) cannot be applied as such, we proceeded to carry out the causality test. The Granger causality test thus, helps to test the existence of causality and determine its direction. In most studies on the relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit, the most commonly used type of Granger causality is the bivariate framework. The Granger causality tests with the bivariate framework are said to be biased owing to the 170 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination omission of relevant variable(s) that affects the relationship between the twin deficits (Tang, 2010). Also, the multivariate Granger causality shows how the other variables individually and jointly Granger causes the dependent variable. This is a remarkable improvement over the bivariate framework. This study employs the Vector Error Correction (VEC) Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test to test for the multivariate Granger causality which shows causality among the variables of interest. The multivariate Granger causality can be performed in various ways but this study will use the Granger causality Block Wald test within the VEC model framework. The result is presented in table 7 through 12 below. VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test Table 7. Dependent Variable; D (CAD) Excluded Chi-Square df Prob D(BD) 1.381567 2 0.5012 D(MON) 5.089605 2 0.0785 D(RGDP) 2.220917 2 0.3294 D(INT) 1.524860 2 0.4665 D(RER) 1.117600 2 0.5719 ALL 12.78470 10 0.2360 Source: Author’s computation with E-views Table 8. Dependent Variable; D (BD) Excluded Chi-Square df Prob D(CAD) 5.088710 2 0.0785 D(MON) 2.399733 2 0.3012 D(RGDP) 8.187262 2 0.0167 D(INT) 3.559773 2 0.1687 D(RER) 2.178612 2 0.3364 ALL 17.59277 10 0.0622 Source: Author’s computation with E-views Table 9. Dependent Variable; D (MON) Excluded Chi-Square df Prob D(CAD) 1.662903 2 0.4354 D(BD) 3.195489 2 0.2024 D(RGDP) 5.180465 2 0.0750 Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 171 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi D(INT) 1.613148 2 0.4464 D(RER) 2.191019 2 0.3344 ALL 9.580632 10 0.4780 Source: Author’s computation with E-views Table 10. Dependent Variable; D (RGDP) Excluded Chi-Square df Prob D(CAD) 8.221225 2 0.0164 D(BD) 6.546916 2 0.0379 D(MON) 13.92505 2 0.0009 D(INT) 3.758688 2 0.1527 D(RER) 2.749333 2 0.2529 ALL 31.79899 10 0.0004 Source: Author’s computation with E-views Table 11. Dependent Variable; D (INT) Excluded Chi-Square df Prob D(CAD) 8.401906 2 0.0150 D(BD) 0.773984 2 0.6791 D(MON) 0.626852 2 0.7309 D(RGDP) 0.984094 2 0.6114 RER 0.345336 2 0.8414 ALL 16.02099 10 0.0990 Source: Author’s computation with E-views Table 12. Dependent Variable; D (RER) Excluded Chi-Square df Prob D(CAD) 0.161862 2 0.9223 D(BD) 0.411191 2 0.8142 D(MON) 4.550628 2 0.1028 D(RGDP) 0.611457 2 0.7366 D(INT) 2.117522 2 0.3469 ALL 7.449806 10 0.6824 Source: Author’s computation with E-views Applying the WALD test, the results from table 8 shows that the causality between budget deficit and current account deficit does not exist, but rather from current account deficit to budget deficit. The value 0.5012 is not statistically significant showing that budget deficit does not granger cause current account deficit. Only 172 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination money supply was found to granger cause the current account deficit at 5 percent level of significance even though their joint p-value was found not to be significant (0.2360). However, Table 9, the probability value of current account deficit which is 0.0785 shows that current account deficit significantly granger cause the budget deficit at 5 percent level of significance when budget deficit is the dependent variable. This result implies that only a unit-directional causality exists between the twin deficit and it flows from current account deficit to budget deficit as against the proposition of the Keynesians that the flow is from budget deficit to current account deficit. In other words, for the Nigerian economy, reverse causality is what is evident. A possible reason for this reverse relationship is that budget policies in Nigeria have been accompanied by substantial external trade deterioration. And given that increase in government spending is mostly transitory, it has little or no effect on the permanent income and consequently consumption plans of domestic households. Thus, when the government uses debt to finances increases in its spending, it leads to a near static increase in domestic private savings while the budget deficit incurred will have a near proportional effect on the current account. Basically, the budget deficit will lead to higher interest rates and this higher interest rates lead to the appreciation of the exchange rate and this leads to the widening of current account deficit. The results obtained though consistent with many other results may not be generalizable given that the Nigerian economy, being an oil rich country that relies much on oil revenue, may be affected by occurrences that affects the oil market and subsequently the price of oil internationally. The result of this study confirms the earlier result from Egwaikhide, et al (2002) for Nigeria. Furthermore, it supports the findings of Kulkarmi and Erickson (2001) for Pakistan; Neaime (2008) for Lebanon; Arize and Melinderos (2008) for selected 10 African countries including Nigeria; Suchismita and Sudiptal (2011) for India and Rauf and Khan (2011) for Pakistan, among others. Summary of Findings, Policy Implications of Result and Conclusion. This study investigates the twin deficit relationship in an oil-dependent open economy like Nigeria where exports, government revenue and income are closely linked with oil revenue. The study attempted to prove that even in a petroleum economy, the Keynesian proposition of a long run equilibrium relationship exists between the twin deficits, but the direction of causality is reversed. The study showed that the twin deficits hypothesis was valid for the Nigerian economy as the result from the cointegration test showed the existence of long run equilibrium relationship between the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Also, the study found strong support for reverse causation also known as “current account targeting” for Nigeria. This implies that even the Mundell-Fleming model was valid for Nigeria; the direction of causality was not from budget deficit to current account deficit but rather from current account deficit to budget deficit. This can be attributed to the nature of the Nigerian economy being an oil-based and oil-dependent economy. Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 173 �Lloyd Ahamefule Amaghionyeodiwe, Opeyemi Akinyemi The economic implication of this phenomenon is very important for the Nigerian economy. The reverse causality that was found to exist for Nigerian implies that if the Nigerian government intends to reduce the “twin deficit” phenomenon in Nigeria, it must begin by reducing the current account deficits. In other words, policies showed should be geared towards controlling the deficit in the current account most especially by diversifying the export base of the economy by promoting non-oil exports. Since the current account balance of Nigeria depends on oil prices, the government should endeavour to diversify the sources of the National income by encouraging exports of non-oil products and reducing imports. The multivariate Granger causality test which was done using the Wald/exogenueity test within the VECM framework showed a uni-directional causality flowing from the current account deficits to the budget deficits in Nigeria for the period of review by this study. The result of the Wald Test showed that the causality between budget deficit and current account does not exist, but rather the current account deficit is the one that causes the budget account deficit for the Nigerian economy. The ECM which shows the speed of adjustment back to equilibrium reflected that the model has about 59 percent adjustment to equilibrium from the long run to the short run which is a moderate adjustment. The examination of the relationship between the twin deficits has important policy implications for the economy. Firstly, persistent large deficits is believed to cause indebtedness as government will tend to resort to borrowing internally and externally which may affect the debt profile of such economy. Secondly, it imposes burden on the future generations as debt incurred by the government to finance the deficits is carried into future generations. Also, since increases in current account deficit reflect escalating government budget deficits, the current account deficit cannot be remedied by just fiscal consolidation as argued in some empirical literature. Similarly, if the causal role of the twin deficit is incorrect, then reductions in the federal budget deficit may not resolve the current account dilemma causing diversion of scarce economic resources from relevant sectors. Based on the study’s findings, it was recommended that: If government intends to reduce its “twin deficit” dilemma, it must begin by reducing its current account deficits and this can be achieved by reducing imports, increasing exports or a combination of both measures. Also, since the findings of this study showed evidence of reverse causation from current account deficits to budget deficits, adjustments in fiscal balance can only be achieved through the implementation of strong external policies. The strong found that of all the interacting variables, only money supply Granger causes current account deficits. This implies that changes in the money supply base of the Nigerian economy will impact significantly in the current account balance. So the Central Bank of Nigeria must endeavour to consciously monitor the supply of money in the economy. In reducing the current account deficit, increase in domestic savings is required which in turn requires the development of a strong financial sector. 174 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination References Abbas, S. M., Bouhga-Hagbe, J., Fatás, A. J., Mauro P., & Velloso, P. C. (2010) Fiscal Policy and Current Account. IMF Working Paper No 121. May. Afonso, A., & Rault, C. (2009). Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU. CESifo Working Paper No 2581. Arize, A. C., & Melindreros, J. (2008). Dynamic Linkages and Granger Causality between Trade Deficits and Budget Deficits: Evidence from Africa. African Journal of Accounting, Economics, Finance and Banking Research. 2(2). Bagnai Alberto, (2006). “Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis,” International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155 Baharumshah, A. Z., Evan, L., & Khalid, A. M. (2006). 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Zhidong, B., Heng, L., Wing-Kenng, W., & Zhang, B. (2009). Multivariate Causality Tests with Simulation and Application. Springer. Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 179 �� Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2931 Title A name given to the resource Twin Deficit in Nigeria: A Re-Examination Author Author Amaghionyeodiwe, Lloyd Ahamefule Opeyemi, Akinyemi Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: This study re-examines the long run relationship between the budget and current account deficits in an oil-dependent open economy like Nigeria using a multivariate Granger causality test within the VECM framework. This result confirmed the existence of a long run relationship between the budget and current account deficit in Nigeria, thus supporting the Mudell-Fleming theory and refuting the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH). The causality result indicates no causality between budget deficit and current account while the current account deficit causes budget account deficit. This implies that reduction in the current account deficits will help reduce the “twin deficit” dilemma. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/09c5b138c19402ee543dc179a715e8f1.pdf 0e931534de0e3c44ca83d6bfad1beb19 PDF Text Text PREGLEDNI NAUČNI RAD Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt Partner Relationship: Microcrisis Aspect Prof. dr. Šabani Alisabri Univerzitet u Sarajevu, Fakultet za kriminalistiku, kriminologiju i sigurnosne studije, vanredni profesor e-mail: asabani@fkn.unsa.ba Sažetak: U predloženom radu pokušavamo problematizirati pojavu partnerskih odnosa koji po definiciji spadaju u izraz slobodnih volja odraslih ljudi. Istraživanja dokazuju da to nije u potpunosti tako i da je u osnovi tih odnosa socijalna konstrukcija koja im definiše prirodu. Karakter rizika u partnerskim odnosima dobrim dijelom proizlaze iz karaktera modernosti pri čemu smo obratili pažnju na one teoretičare koji su ta pitanja radikalizirali u svojim studijama. Mišljenja smo da su partnerski odnosi oblik zajednice, ali je izložena rizicima socijalne prirode karakterističnih za modernost. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 Ključne riječi: privlačnost, partnerski odnos, društveni konstrukt partnerskih odnosa, rizici u partnerskim odnosima, modernost. JEL klasifikacija: K39 http://dx.doi.org/ 10.14706/DO152113 Historija članka Dostavljen: 26.12.2013. Recenziran: 30.03.2014. Prihvaćen: 10.07.2014. 233 �Šabani Alisabri Abstract: In the present work we try to problematize the emergence of partnerships which by definition belong to the free expression of the will of adults. Research shows that this is not entirely so, and that is the basis of these relations social structures that define their nature. Character risks in relationships largely stem from the nature of modernity in which we pay attention to those theorists who have these issues radicalized in their studies. We believe that partnership is a form of community, but is exposed to the risks of a social nature characteristic of modernity 234 Keywords: attraction, a partnership, a social construct of the partnerships, risks in partner relationships, modernity. JEL Classification: K39 http://dx.doi.org/ 10.14706/DO152113 Article History Submitted: 26.12.2013. Resubmited: 30.03.2014. Accepted: 10.07.2014. Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt 1. Uvod Put nas je čvrstim uzama vezao, Mi smo saputnici vetra, a put je naš bez kraja… Raznobojnih trenutaka dragoceni cvetni prah Crvenim tragom prolećnog veselja obasipa srca… PUT NAS JE ČVRSTIM VEZAMA VEZAO Rabindranat Tagore U navedenom dijelu Rabindranatove pjesme polazi se od idealnotipske situacije između dvoje ljudi u njihovom putu kroz život. Tako je u svakoj početnoj definiciji odnosa između dvoje ljudi. Međutim, iako su dvoje ljudi puni očekivanja u partnerskim odnosima, oni su često neizvjesni zbog niza vanjskih i unutarnjih događanja vezanih za partnerski odnos. U našem radu pokušat ćemo problematizirati i teorijski razumjeti partnerske odnose kao jedan od odgovora odraslih ljudi na kompleksnost socijalnog života u kojem bivaju. To nisu isključivo bračni odnosi, nego odnosi temeljeni na volji dvoje ljudi da budu zajedno. Struktura partnerskih odnosa podrazumijeva JA, TI i MI (partnerski međusobni odnos) formaciju. Suština partnerskog odnosa je balans između ove tri formacije. Tako se partnerski odnos razumijeva kao udruženje para koje dopušta svakom akteru njegovu vlastitost i jednakovrijednost. Svaka osoba traži i očekuje u partnerskom odnosu psihološku i prosocijalnu dozvolu za svoj osobni razvoj. Realno osjećanje zajednice i partnerstva je ono što se prepoznaje kao izvora zadovoljstva. Međusobni odnos figurira kao konstrukt realnosti za partnere i visoko je neovisan od nepouzdanosti vanjskog svijeta, tj. ima sposobnosti da živi sam po sebi. Partnerski odnos je najčešći oblik udruživanja dvoje odraslih ljudi suprotnog pola (mada ima i istopolnih partnerskih zajednica) i elementarni je oblik veze. Ukoliko preraste u brak zaštićen je nizom sankcija i zakona, kako vjerskih (svetost braka), tako i svjetovnih (Zakon o braku). Danas je jako teško ovladati partnerskim odnosima u smislu normiranja ili bar jednostavnošću strukture. Smatramo neophodnim navesti nekoliko neophodnih Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 235 �Šabani Alisabri osobina partnerskih odnosa koji ukazuju na kompleksnost tih odnosa, a u sebi nose elemente mikrokrizne situacije. 2. Privlačnost kao pretpostavka za partnerski odnos Međuljudska privlačnost može se definirati kao sklonost ili predispozicija vrednovanja druge osobe na pozitivan način. Stoga, međuljudska privlačnost je, u najširem smislu, specifična vrsta stava.1 Na prezentiranoj shemi zapažamo da veza između dvoje ljudi prolazi kroz četiri razine. Na prvoj razini ne postoji kontakt između dvoje ljudi: oni se čak i ne poznaju. Ovo je stanje stvari kod većeg dijela populacije, budući da stvaramo socijalne i vizualno-komunikacijske veze koje su definirane obimom naših kontakata kroz svakodnevnicu ( radne obaveze, dokolica, druženja, hobiji i sl.) i stoga, stupamo u kontakte sa relativno ograničenim brojem osoba. Na drugoj razini dvoje ljudi postaju svjesni jedno drugog; to se događa prije bilo kakve interakcije. To je vrlo bitno jer faktori kao što su fizička privlačnost i percipirana sličnost stavova određuju hoće li doći do interakcije i stvaranje veze. Ako svaka osoba osjeća da su okolnosti dobre, one napreduju na treću razinu – razinu površnog kontakata. Ovdje svaka osoba saznaje nešto o drugoj na način da li druga osoba zadovoljava kriterije kao što su sviđanje, privlačnost, uvjerenja, vrijednosti i sl. Prve tri razine tiču se stvaranja veza. Četvrta razina, uzajamnost, tiče se razvoja veza. To se upisuje kao kontinuum koji se proteže od poznanstva (manje preklapanje) do duboke i trajne veze. Treba istaći činjenicu da su akteri socijalizacijski „utrenirani“ iščitavati sve ove faze koje mogu dovesti do konačne verzije partnerstva. 1 I. Ajzen, „Attitudional versus normative messages: An investigation of the differential effects of persuasive communications on behaviour“, u K. Thomas (ur.), Attitudes and Behaviour, Penguin Books Ltd., Harmondsworth, 1971, 271-280. 236 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt Slika 1.Razine povezanosti između dvoje ljudi,prilagođeno prema D. C. Pennington2 Kao što vidimo, da bi partnerski odnos uopće bio moguć, potrebno je da osoba bude u nekom obliku komunikacije. Osobe koje su socijalno isključene imaju daleko manje resursa na raspolaganju za prevazilaženje ove situacije. Često znaju za ovaj problem ali nemaju hrabrosti, vještina i podrške da ga riješe. Razlike u sposobnosti savladavanja socijalne isključenosti manje su povezane s razlikama u ličnosti, a više s mjerom u kojoj su ljudi sposobni sami sebi postaviti ciljeve, organizirati život i sl. Osobe koje su u tome uspješne manje pate i manje je vjerojatno da će postati apatične. Sažeto, istraživanja o socijalnoj isključenosti 2 D.C. Pennington, Osnove socijalne psihologije, Naklada Slap, Zagreb, 1997,186-190. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 237 �Šabani Alisabri podupiru mišljenje da ljudi općenito trebaju podražaje, a posebno prisutnost drugih.3 Strah od socijalne isključenosti je snažan i potrebna je mala neizvjesnost pa da nastanu neki oblici panike. Strah je reakcija na događaj koji se dogodio, a tjeskoba je emocionalna reakcija na očekivanje budućeg događaja sličnog sadržaja, tj. socijalnog isključenja. Prisustvo drugih ljudi izravno djeluju na smanjenje tog straha, pružajući utjehu i smirivanje. Osobama je potrebna druga osoba jer se na taj način pruža mogućnost procjene samog sebe. Nekoliko nalaza i istraživanja o privlačnosti osoba postuliraju da su: 1. 2. 3. 4. Više popularne i željene;4 Pretpostavljeno je da imaju pozitivne osobine;5 Mogu su zaposliti brže; Opažljivi su, sretni, više osjetljivi, uspješni i društveno iskusni.6 Pretpostavlja se da ljudi stvaraju veze, poglavito intimne, s ljudima sličnima po fizičkoj privlačnosti, poznatih kao pretpostavka o podjednakoj privlačnosti. Vrlo privlačni ljudi stvaraju veze jedni s drugima, kao i umjereno privlačni, neprivlačni i ružni ljudi. Ovo je primjer teorije pravednosti, koja, grubo rečeno, kaže da ljudi dobiju «ono što misle da zaslužuju u životu». Prema teoriji pravednosti, da bi se veza stvorila (i trajala), svaka osoba mora drugoj pružiti dovoljno koristi i smisla da bi opstala.7 Saegert, Swap i Zajonc8 su potvrdili pretpostavku da će se nekoj osobi više sviđati druga osoba što češće bude dolazila u kontakt s njom. 3 A. Šabani, Sociologija, Fakultet za kriminalistiku, kriminologiju i sigurnosne studije, Sarajevo, 2013, 211-215. 4 D. C. Pennington, Osnove socijalne psihologije, Naklada Slap, Zagreb, 1997, 193 5 D. C. Pennington, Osnove socijalne psihologije, Naklada Slap, Zagreb, 1997, 193 6 E. Hatfield, S. Sprecher, Mirror, mirror… The importance of look in everyday life, SUNY Press, New York, 1986, 74 7 E. Walster, G.W. Walster, E. Berscheid, Equity: Theory and Research, Allyn& Bacon, 1978, 23-40. 8 S. Saegert, W. Swap, R.B. Zajonc, Exposure, context, and interpersonal attraction, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 25, 234-242. 238 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt Koliko se druga osoba sviđala Slika 2. Intenzitet privlačnosti proizlazi iz većeg broja susreta jedne osobe s drugom. 5.0 4.5 1 4.0 2 5 10 Broj susreta Faktori privlačnosti se ne odnose samo na prostornu–vremensku predikciju (vjerovatnoća da ćemo neku osobu vidjeti u određenom vremenu i određenom prostoru), nego i na faktore poput: 1. toga da smo jako privlačni ljudima s kojima dijelimo naše stavove, što više zajedničkih stavova dijelimo, to smo više privlačni; 2. odbijanja komunikacije s osobama koje nam nisu prijatne; 3. moralnih, estetskih i religijskih kriterija koje poštujemo i na osnovu kojih dopuštamo pristup do sebe. Priroda međusobnog odnosa u najvećoj mjeri zavisi od ličnog osjećaja aktera i definicije situacije te način unutarpartnerske komunikacije. Izbor partnera, odnosno psihodinamika partnera zavisi da li smo ispunili početne uslove razvijanja i podržavanja kvalitetnih odnose u dvoje.9 To znači odnos s kojim će se partneri baviti i harmonizirati ga, a ne odnos koji će biti prepušten samom sebi. 3. Društveni konstrukt partnerskih odnosa Socijalna konstrukcija partnerskih odnosa proizlazi iz zahtjeva društva da se ljudi moraju udruživati, osobito odrasli članovi. Partnerski odnosi imaju osobinu da 9 P. Brajša, Se da živeti v dvoje, Delavska enotnost, Ljubljana, 1986, 18-29. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 239 �Šabani Alisabri se pretvore u bračne10 ili neke druge odnose, a na osnovu toga zahtijevaju legitimno važenje. Partnerstvo je univerzalna i masovna socijalna pojava koja je društveno normirana. Većina partnerskih odnosa završava brakom ili vanbračnom zajednicom11. Ukoliko partnerstvo preraste u brak (kao produbljenje partnerskog odnosa) onda ta veza ima sljedeća obilježja: 1. 2. 3. 4. međusobno obvezivanje među supružnicima, prava seksualnog pristupa, očekivanje da će brak potrajati kroz trudnoću i priznavanje legitimnog statusa djece supružnika.12 Partnerski odnosi, u skali funkcionalnih osobina, imaju mogućnosti socijalizacije odgovornosti jer uključuje vođenje računa i o drugoj osobi. Ukoliko su partnerski odnosi formirani između različitih socijalnih i konfesionalnih jedinica onda partnerski odnosi imaju i svoju akulturacijsku funkciju. Na kraju partnerski odnosi predstavljaju instrument socijalne kontrole jer gdje god se dvoje ili više ljudi susreću, neka zajednička pravila moraju biti prihvaćena od strane svih aktera za osiguravanje i održavanje individualnih prava. Uspješnost adaptacije na pravila unutar partnerskih odnosa je uvod za uspješnu adaptaciju i socijalnu definiciju partnerskih odnosa. Kada akteri ne mogu kontrolisati jedne druge tada su prinuđeni da aktiviraju moralne sankcije koje upozoravaju na narušavanje pravila (ljutnja, bijes, povučenost, uvrijeđenost, itd.). Uspostavljanje partnerskih odnosa, odnosno prihvatanje partnerski odnosa kao činjenice konstituira nizu obaveza, prilagodbi, kompromisa ali i očekivanja. Najčešće obaveze ili prilagodbe su slijedeće: 1. uspostavljanje rutine svakodnevnice, 10 M. D. Buss, Human Mate Selection, American scientists,73,47-51. Autor navodi podatak da preko 90% partnerskih odnosa završava brakom. 11 I. Vidanović, Rečnik socijalnog rada, TIRO-ERC, Beograd 2006, 70. Brak je zakonski zasnovana institucija zajedničkog života punoljetnih osoba, podrazumijevaju se prava i obaveze supružnika što se reguliše pravnim normama. Velika promjena u zakonskoj regulativi i praksi pojedinih zemalja dogodio se nakon 2000.g. kada je omogućen zakonski regulisan brak osoba istog pola 12 I. Ivulić, Što žene žele?, Jedna empirijska provjera, u J. Hrgović i D. Polšek (ur.), Evolucija društvenosti, Naklada Jesenski i Turk Zagreb, 2004, 193. 240 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt 2. učenje kako donositi svrhovite odluke zajedno, 3. građenje novih prijateljstava na osnovu činjenice da se u partnerskim odnosima poprimaju novi socijalni atributi, 4. razvijanje odnosa koji imaju potencijal legitimiteta, 5. uspostavljanje zajedničkog financijskog budžeta, 6. razvijanje „dvostruke ličnosti“ u smislu trošenja i kupovanja ne samo za sebe nego i za drugu osobu, 7. uspostavljanje ceremonijalnih i ritualnih navika, 8. odluka o dinamici erotskih relacija, 9. učenje kako se pregovara o konfliktima, 10. učenje kako uzimati i davati u zajedničkom životu, 11. alokacija odgovornosti, 12. razvijanje uspješnih komunikacijskih modela, 13. uspostavljanje i dijeljenje vrijednosnih orijentacija, 14. identificiranje partnerskih uloga, 15. stvaranje zajedničkih ciljeva, 16. odlučivanje o aktivnostima u slobodnom vremenu, 17. odlučivanje o formama i sadržajima uključenosti u zajednicu, 18. uspostavljanje i definisanje kreditnih aranžmana, 19. razvijanje zadovoljstva i uspostavljanje balansa između zajedništva i individualnosti, 20. uspostavljanje partnerstva kao životni uspjeh.13 Kao idealnotipski socijalni konstrukt partnerstva sa stanovišta racionalnosti, često puta i vladajuće ideologije, javljaju se ovi poželjni odnosi i projekcije socijalnih vrijednosti: 1. viša klasa otmjeno življenje 2. gornja srednja klasa karijera i obrazovanje 3. donja srednja klasa poštovanje i stabilnost radnog mjesta 4. radnička klasa finansijski opstanak i mogućnost zaposlenja 5. niža klasa fizički opstanak 13 C. S. Schuster, S.S. Ashburn, The Process of Human Developement: a Holistic Life-Span Approach ( second edition), Little, Brown and Company, Boston, Toronto, 1986, 123-128. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 241 �Šabani Alisabri Kao što vidimo partnerski odnosi su jako usmjereni na kontrolu vanjskih i unutarnjih prijetnji zbog kojih mora biti izgrađen partnerski kodeks čije se poštovanje podrazumijeva od strane oba aktera. 4. Rizici u partnerskim odnosima Najčešći rizici u partnerskim odnosima su:      nepovjerenje, preljuba, razočarenje, konflikti, disfunkcionalnost partnera. 4.1. Nepovjerenje Nepovjerenje je situacija koja ima moralno značenje i odnosi se na odsustvo sigurnosti i izvjesnosti partnerskog odnosa. Socijalna kontrola unutar partnerskog odnosa često konstatira nekonzistentnost toka partnerstva. Nepovjerenje je često uvodna situacija za raspad partnerskog odnosa. Nepovjerenje je uzrok nezadovoljstva kvalitetom odnosa koji nije zasnovan na dubokom poštivanju i obostranom razumijevanju.. Nepovjerenje se može shvatiti i kao strah od gubitka voljene osobe, a ponekad može prerasti u oblik terora koji vremenom postane nepodnošljiv za kontroliranog aktera. 4.2. Preljuba Preljuba je prvi dokaz nepotpune ljubavi i dokazuje nezrelo doživljavanje i poimanje ljubavi. Partner stupa u preljubu ukoliko nije izražena ljubav. Međutim, preljuba može biti izraz virilne kulture jer je takva kultura zadržala dominaciju muškarca, pa prema tome i njegovu pravo da ima više partnerica. 4.3. Razočarenje Razočarenje je jedna od čestih situacija u partnerskim odnosima. Najteži osjećaj jeste spoznaja da jedan drugog razumiju samo na svoj način. 242 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt Ljubav ne važi samo za jednu sferu čovjeka, nego obuhvata kompletnu njegovu ličnost. Često se dešava da nekog partnera ne želi vidjeti takvog kakav je, nego takvog kakav bi on želio. U fazi zaljubljenosti velika su očekivanja da će im partner ispuniti i omogućiti sve želje i da će otpočeti novi život. Prečesto nedostaje jednom od partnera jednostavna konstatacija da su ljudi jednostavno takvi kakvi jesu, a ne da su robovi, slike kako su sebi zamislili. Partnerski odnosi često bivaju opterećeni nizom međusobnih primjedbi, tako muškarci najčešće prigovaraju ženama:    vezanosti za kuću i domaćinstvo, pretjerana vezanost za partnera, pretjerana kontrola; nastojanje da se muškarac veže za kuću i kućne obaveze; emocionalna ovisnost od muškarca i preveliko insistiranje na osjećanjima. S druge strane najčešći prigovori žena muškarcima su:    nemaju vremena za žene, suviše su same i muškarci ne preuzimaju nikakve odgovornosti; oskudica priznanja, ozbiljno neshvaćanje žene, nepriznavanja rada, zasluga, odsustvo ljubaznosti; emocionalna nedostupnost, nikada se ne izraze osjećaj do druge osobe i ne pokazuje pažljivost.14 4.4. Konflikti Konflikti u partnerskim odnosima se definiraju kao povrede psihosocijalnog polja jednog od aktera u partnerskom odnosu. To znači da čitava skala formalnih i neformalnih prava i dužnosti, očekivanja i i simboličkih nagrada biva povrijeđena konfliktom. No, konflikti mogu biti funkcionalni i popraviti stanje u odnosu, a često su sami po sebi fleksibilni. Jedna povreda psihosocijalnog polja aktera od strane drugog aktera povlači reakciju i tako se konflikt može umnožiti. Ako su povrede shvaćene kao ugrožavanje slijedi reakcija i očekivano multipliciranje. Konflikti se ne završavaju dosljedno, nego kompromisno. Na taj način konflikt uči učesnike kompromisnim rješenjima, a dugoročno i toleranciji. 14 V. Satir, Družina za naš čas, Cankarjeva založba, Ljubljana, 1998, 157-170. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 243 �Šabani Alisabri Konflikt je jedna od težih situacija u partnerskim vezama i izuzetno komplicira odnose. Emotivno reagovanje partnera, ukoliko je nefunkcionalno, dovodi do konflikta. U osnovi konflikt je upozorenje na disfunkcionalnost veze i izražava strah od završnog razrješenja situacije. Konflikt često ima izraze i situacije povezane za pobjedu i poraz. Konflikt može kreirati suštinu partnerskog odnosa u:    instrumentalizaciju partnerskog odnosa, koji znači prijelaz iz JA – TI u odnos JA – ONO. Međusobna ljubav se mijenja, ali i međusobno iskorištava. Takav odnos guši partnera i pravi ga nezadovoljnim. u odnose koji dugo traju i u kojima se neprijatna osjećanja ne zaboravljaju, nego se pohranjuju kao kapital za konfliktu situaciju i služe kao energetski izvor i „municija“ za repertoar uvreda koji će se upotrijebiti u budućem konfliktu, najčešće zlostavljanje.15 u odnose u kojima nije sve logično, sa nizom nesvjesnih događanja koja uzrokuju konflikt. Često dolazi od nerazumijevanja i pogrešnog doživljavanja partnerovog ponašanja. Iako je konflikt u partnerskim odnosima uzrokovan nizom neslaganja, neugodnim situacijama i sl., ističemo da ima izvjesnu autonomnost u odnosu na aktere. Naime, psihodinamika konflikta preživljava unatoč činjenici što su nestali elementarni uslovi nastanka istog. Proces partnerskih konflikata otpočinje dinamikom zahtjeva, traženja pa do povlačenja. Jedan od partnera zahtjeva blizinu intimnost, dok drugi odgovara šutnjom i povlačenjem. Partner izbjegava dodir i ulaže punu energiju u distancu, dok drugi partner osjeća strah od samoće. Sljedeća faza konflikta je ona kada jedan od aktera, koji želi bliži dodir, prelazi u fazu proganjanja, a onaj drugi u fazi bježanja. Treći stepen jeste ona situacija kada jedan od partnera osjeća razočarenje. U sljedećem stepenu, partner koji je proganjao drugog, doživljava bijes i počinje neumoljivo napadati, a drugi odgovara protiv napada. U petom stepenu oba partnera 15 Kao što su pokazala istraživanja Autonomne ženske kuće Zagreb (Jutarnji List, ponedjeljak, 18.10.2004.g.) na području Hrvatske, najmanje 29% žena partneri su zlostavljali. Istraživanje je provedeno na 987 žena u dobi 18 do 67 godina iz svih dijelova Hrvatske. Njih 61% je bilo u braku, 21% u vezi, a 18% nije imalo partnera. Rasprostranjenost fizičkog nasilja, između ostalog, mjereno je kroz pitanje zna li ispitanica da je njezinu najbolju prijateljicu partner ikad fizički ozlijedio. Čak 29% žena odgovorilo je potvrdno. 244 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt se nalaze na sigurnoj distanci i tako ostaju do novog konflikta. Šesta i završna faza jeste faza gađenja i prezira.16 4.5. Disfunkcionalnost partnera Odlika kvalitetnog odnosa, pa i partnerskog, jest sposobnost prepoznavanja šta partneru treba u određenom trenutku i kakvim su odnosom oba partnera zadovoljni. Međutim, niz partnerskih odnosa su nastali spletom slučajnih okolnosti i pod utjecajem onih vanjskih prilika koje akteri nisu mogli ili ne mogu kontrolisati i mijenjati ih u svoju korist. Ovi faktori se mogu razumjeti kao disfunkcionalni (odsutvo ili slom funkcionalnih odnosa). U neke od tih odnosa spadaju:     umješanost roditelja u partnerski odnos; nezrelost partnera,smatra se da odnos nije stabilan, npr., tinejdžerske partnerske zajednice ne mogu zbog toga formirati svoj identitet; partnerske zajednice sklopljene od strane aktera koji su inkongruentni po statusno-socijalnom kriteriju;17 partnerski odnosi u kojem je jedan, ili oba, od aktera imao teške traume iz djetinjstva. Ukoliko se partnerski odnosi njeguju kao važni i smisleni za aktere, onda zapažamo da akteri znaju da su oni po sebi nestabilni ukoliko se ne obnavljaju ili redefiniraju. 5. Antinomije u partnerskim odnosima Antinomije se u teoriji smatraju sukobima između dvije suprostavljene istine ili teze, koje su podjednake argumentacijske snage. U našoj raspravi partnerski odnosi imaju tu osobinu. Naime, koliko god osobe rado stupaju u te odnose,18 s 16 M. Metelko, Ljubezen in okamenelo srce, Samozaložba, Vrhnika, 1998, 31-42. J. Burušić, Koliko daleko jabuka pada od stabla, Jutarnji list, 13. studenoga 2013, 28-29. 18 A. Giddens, Sociologija, Nakladni zavod Globus, Zagreb, 2007, 192. Autor ističe da se brak transformirao u sve većem broju u kohabitualne veze kao alternativa braku, parovi žive zajedno i zajedno odgajaju djecu. Predviđa se da će 4 od 5 vjenčanih parova Z. Evropi živjeti zajedno prije braka. 17 Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 245 �Šabani Alisabri druge strane postoji i visoka stopa raspada partnerskih odnosa,19 ali i ponovnog ulaska u njih. To znači da su oni ujedno i potreba ali i okvir u kojem nisu potpuno zadovoljene potrebe. To također znači da proces odabira partnera dovode u određenu sumnju taj čin kao čin pun osobnih sviđanja, emocija i zaljubljenosti, neovisno o kontekstu. U većoj se mjeri može razmatrati društvena uvjetovanost odabira partnera unutar koje socijalne, finansijske kulturne, obrazovne i druge varijable imaju vrlo važno mjesto. Prema Richard Sennettu20 velikog kritičara teorije zajednice svedene na dvoje ljudi smatra da su se kroz modernijom historiju reducirali potencijali pojedinca na svijest o njegovim okrenutostima samom sebi. To je proizvelo neku vrstu egoizma i svijest o partnerskim odnosima da su oni jedini skup zaista postojećih ljudskih bića ( pad u sebstvo). Međutim, to ne garantuje da su partnerski odnosi čvrsti, nego su mnogo više krhki i često partnerska zajednica egzistira samo stalnim usiljenim pojačavanjem emocija. Razlog za tu investiciju sastoji se u tome da je dominantna kultura dobrim djelom onemogućila male partnerske jedinice da funkcioniraju bez prisile, straha ili instrumentalnih svrha, poput emocionalnog preživljavanja. Kultura im nudi nestabilne simbole pobude, i namjere i stalno su prinuđeni provjeravati njihovu snagu kroz medije, vizualnu kulturu i kulturalne pritiske. Partnerski odnosi u modernom svijetu funkcioniraju kao male jedinice otpora u modernom svijetu i samim tim gube svoje smisao jer koriste sredstva i instrumente koji malu zajednicu onemogućavaju kao smislenu. Sennett ovu situaciju naziva tiranija prisnosti. On ističe da je privatni život, nasuprot javnom životu, izložen nizu tiranskih prisila koje predstavljaju ideju da sva ljudska aktivnost prolazi kroz mrežu odgovornosti i nadzora. Neispunjavanje dužnosti stvara strah od neispunjavanja tih dužnosti,a samim tim i vrijeđanja dogovorenih partnerskih odnosa. Intimnost, kao važan dio partnerskih odnosa, je polje očekivanih ljudskih odnosa. Očekuje se da su odnosi topli onda kad su bliski.. Paradoksalno, što se ljudi više zbližuju u partnerskim odnosima, to su manje društveni. 19 N. Abercrombie, S. Hill, Riječnik sociologije, Jesenski i Turk,zagreb, 2008,179. Autori navode podatak za Veliku Britaniju da se stopa razvoda naglo povećala (2,1 razvod na 1000 sklopljenih brakova u 1961. godini, u usporedbi s 13,4 u 1995. godini). Istovremeno se stopa ponovnog stupanja u brak nakon razvoda ostale visoke - 50% razvedenih žena u 1980-ima su ponovo stupile u brak 8 godina nakon razvoda. 20 R. Sennett, Nestanak javnog čovjeka, Naprijed, Zagreb, 1989,127-149. 246 Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt Anthony Giddens21 u studiji „Transformacija intimniteta“ konstatira da u okružju moderniteta odnosi poprimaju nove kvalitete koje su prije svega rezultat promjena u prirodi društva i strukturi familije. Naime, žene su preuzele rizik oslobođenja od tradicionalnih struktura i porodice. Istovremeno su redefinirale partnerske odnose u smislu da su22 fokusirane na razumijevanje sebe i odnosa u koje stupaju. Na tragu M. Foucaulta, Giddens objašnjava razliku, nastalu u modernitetu, uvodeći ideju „čistih odnosa“. Suština tog odnosa jest da se u njega slobodno ulazi na temelju utilitarnosti, odnosno, smisleno je da traje onoliko koliko je kao odnos koristan. To je ono bitno što je u kontrastu sa ranijim pojmovima braka kao skupa uloga i obaveza. On također hipostazira pojam romantične ljubavi, koja je definirana stavom ili iluzijom da je to „nešto posebno“. Tu vrstu osjećanja Giddens naziva „konfluentna ljubav“ ili ona ljubav koja je posebna po sebi u samom odnosu. Giddens tumači ovu promjenu radikalnom demokratizacijom društva koja je obuhvatila i mikronivoe poput partenskih odnosa. Uočio je da postoji opšta tendencija da su se muškarci kulturalno „ulijenili“ unutar dominantno virilne kulture i da su žene, kroz socijalne promjene, otvorile mogućnost stvaranja konkurentnih vrijednosti unutar te kulture. 6. Zaključak Nekoliko je važnih razloga zašto partnerski odnosi nisu univerzalni odgovor na kompleksnost svijeta za pojedince. Partnerski odnosi, prije svega ne mogu biti zamjena za socijalni život osobe, niti osoba može biti svedena samo na partnersku ulogu. Drugo, osobe u modernom svijetu su socijalizirane na oblike egoizma kao način očuvanja osobnosti i iz tih motiva može lako doći do raspada partnerske zajednice. Treće, osobe modernog doba izložene su snažnim konzumentskim ponudama i slikama za koje ne želi biti uskraćen, a za to može biti prepreka partnerski odnos. Četvrto, partnerski odnos može biti privatni mikrokosmos, ali nesposoban da rješava pitanja u kategorijama javnosti. To dokazuju teorijski okviri i empirijski izvori različitog statusa i značaja. Akteri u partnerskim donosima imaju svoje predstave o zajedničkom življenju i potrebama, koje pokušavaju zadovoljiti u zajedničkom životu. Ipak, shvatili smo da su partnerski odnosi odgovor na 21 A.Giddens, The Transformation of Intimacy: Sexuality, Love and Eroticism in Modern Societies, Stanford University Press, Palo Alto, 1992, 140-162. 22 M. Fuko, „Telo, moć“, u P. Milenković, D. Marinković (ur.) Mišel Fuko 1926-1984-2004, Vojvođanska sociološka asocijacija, Novi Sad, 2005, 81. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 247 �Šabani Alisabri usamljenost ili socijalnu isključenost, a da bi bili uspješni karakterizira ih nekoliko zajedničkih osobina: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Jasno i razumljivo komuniciranje, Sudjelovanje, a ne takmičenje, Saradnja, a ne izražavanje moći, Priznavanje realnosti partnerskog odnosa, a ne robovanje zamišljenoj slici tog odnosa, Upotreba autoriteta za uređenje i usrećivanje partnerskog odnosa, prije nego izražavanje moći, Samopoštovanje u svim aspektima ličnosti, Sposobnost odgovornosti do sebe i partnera, Sposobnost suočavanja sa problemima u duhu izazova i novih temelja za prirodu partnerskog odnosa. Činjenica je da je u okolnostima moderniteta ljudska egzistencija nestalna, ali mnogima ostaje mogućnost konstruiranja partnerskog odnosa kao univerzalnog odgovora nato stanje. Ono što možemo učiniti za sebe jeste samopoštovanje i zahtijevanje, u okviru kategorija humanog razvoja i humanističkih odnosa, da me se poštuje. Partnerski odnosi, stoga, predstavljaju jednu od mogućnosti u okviru niza borbi za preživljavanje na koje je čovjek prinuđen da učestvuje. Perspektive suvremenih partnerskih veza, sudeći po onome što modernitet nameće ljudima, pokazuje niz tendencija i eksperimenata, ali je sigurno da će ostati kao važan resurs za one aktere koji ih još uvijek smatraju racionalnim i ontološkim rješenjem svoje egzistencije. 7. Literatura     248 Giddens, Sociologija, Nakladni zavod Globus, Zagreb, 2007, 192. Šabani, Sociologija, Fakultet za kriminalistiku, kriminologiju i sigurnosne studije, Sarajevo, 2013, 211-215. A.Giddens, The Transformation of Intimacy: Sexuality, Love and Eroticism in Modern Societies, Stanford University Press, Palo Alto, 1992, 140-162. C. S. Schuster, S.S. Ashburn, The Process of Human Developement: a Holistic Life-Span Approach ( second edition), Little, Brown and Company, Boston, Toronto, 1986, 123-128. Društveni ogledi - Časopis za pravnu teoriju i praksu �Partnerski odnosi: mikrokrizni aspekt                  D. C. Pennington, Osnove socijalne psihologije, Naklada Slap, Zagreb, 1997, 193 D.C. Pennington, Osnove socijalne psihologije, Naklada Slap, Zagreb, 1997,186190. E . Walster, G.W. Walster, E. Berscheid, Equity: Theory and Research, Allyn& Bacon, 1978, 23-40. E. Hatfield, S. Sprecher, Mirror, mirror The importance of look in everydaylife, SUNY Press, New York,1986, 74 Ajzen, „Attitudional versus normative messages: An investigation of the differential effects of persuasive communications on behaviour“, u K. Thomas (ur.), Attitudes and Behaviour, Penguin Books Ltd., Harmondsworth, 1971, 271-280. Ivulić, Što žene žele?, Jedna empirijska provjera, u J. Hrgović i D. Polšek (ur.), Evolucija društvenosti, Naklada Jesenski i Turk Zagreb, 2004, 193. Vidanović, Rečnik socijalnog rada, TIRO-ERC, Beograd 2006, 70. J. Burušić, Koliko daleko jabuka pada od stabla, Jutarnji list, 13. studenoga 2013, 28-29. Jutarnji List, ponedjeljak, 18.10.2004.g. M. D. Buss, Human Mate Selection, American scientists,73,47-51. M. Fuko, „Telo, moć“, u P. Milenković, D. Marinković (ur.) Mišel Fuko 19261984-2004, Vojvođanska sociološka asocijacija, Novi Sad, 2005, 81. M. Metelko, Ljubezen in okamenelo srce, Samozaložba, Vrhnika, 1998, 31-42. N. Abercrombie, S. Hill, Riječnik sociologije, Jesenski i Turk,zagreb, 2008,179. P. Brajša, Se da živeti v dvoje, Delavska enotnost, Ljubljana, 1986, 18-29. R. Sennett, Nestanak javnog čovjeka, Naprijed, Zagreb, 1989,127-149. S. Saegert, W. Swap, R.B. Zajonc, Exposure, context, and interpersonal attraction, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 25, 234-242. V. Satir, Družina za naš čas, Cankarjeva založba, Ljubljana, 1998, 157-170. Centar za društvena istraživanja | Godina 2 | Broj1 249 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2861 Title A name given to the resource Partner Relationship: Microcrisis Aspect Author Author Alisabri, Šabani Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: In the present work we try to problematize the emergence of partnerships which by definition belong to the free expression of the will of adults. Research shows that this is not entirely so, and that is the basis of these relations social structures that define their nature. Character risks in relationships largely stem from the nature of modernity in which we pay attention to those theorists who have these issues radicalized in their studies. We believe that partnership is a form of community, but is exposed to the risks of a social nature characteristic of modernity Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Social Sciences Research Center of International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed K Law (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/7e6af845abdcf765a9b9cf76a932c422.pdf 53a2a9b32061952ee21eff18e5992eb1 PDF Text Text Complex Predicate Constructions in Uzbek Language Azamat Akbarov & Lola Türker International Burch University, Bosnia and Herzegovina Abstract Complex predicates are defined as constructions consisting of preverb/converb/coverb + ‘light verb’ (Bowern 2006). Each component of the complex construction contributes to the internal argument structure. The typology of complex predicates exhibits cross-linguistic similarities and differences. This study investigates the complex predicate constructions in Uzbek, which possesses a rich variety of light verb constructions. Novel data from Uzbek is provided, and it is analyzed on the basis of proposed criteria in the government and binding theory (GB) literature for complex predicates. The analysis reveals that these constructions express simultaneity, cause and effect, and consecutivity. Both verbs in complex constructions share the same subject, and they describe a single event. However, the object may or may not be shared by both verbs. What is significant about Uzbek light verbs is that they both host inflection, and contribute to the event structure. That is, tense and agreement markers, as well as aspectual markers are carried by the light verb. The constituency is strict in complex predicates, and there cannot be an intervention between the converb and the light verb by such elements as interrogatives, negation, or temporal adverbs. Key words: Complex predicates, light verbs, Uzbek language, construction, derivation Introduction Many languages of the world possess complex verb constructions. Their typology includes various types of serial verbs (e.g. in languages of East and Southeast Asia, languages of West Africa and Oceania), light verbs of the languages of Asia, and converbal complex predications in Japanese, Korean, and Turkic (Bowern 2006; Öztürk 2003). Butt and Geuder �(2001:325) define complex predicates as constructions in which each component contributes to the meaning carried by the head. Moreover, predicate structure of these constructions is established by more than one element, which makes it difficult to decide which element in the clause is assigning the theta-role, or more than one element is assigning it simultaneously. In Turkic complex predicates, the structure which consists of V+V, the coverb determines the argument structure of the predicate (Bowern 2006). However, the inflecting verb carries finite inflection, and it occupies the head position of the predicate. Research on complex verbs has been approached within various theoretical frameworks. The importance of work in contrastive perspective and integrating different language families in the analyses has been emphasized. 2. Definitions and Previous Research 2.1. Complex Predicates Complex predicates are constructions in which more than one component is involved in functions associated with the head. These functions involve the argument structure and the thetarole assignment, and they appear to be determined ad interim by more than one element in the clause. Butt (1995:2) presents the definition in (2) to explain the nature of complex predicates: (2) a. complex predicates are multi-headed; argument structure is complex, and is spread across multiple constituents. b. they are composed of more than one grammatical element, each of which contributes to part of the information normally associated with a head; c. their grammatical functional structure, however is that of a simple predicate; contributes part of the information normally associated with a head; d. light verb structures can be formed lexically or syntactically. To sum up, what makes complex predicates ‘complex’ is the fact that they consist of two (or more) constituents which behave the same way as the simple verbal predicates do; multiple constituents take part in expressing the function of the predicate. 2.2 Light verbs �The term light verb has been coined by Jespersen (1965, Volume VI: 117), and it referred to the English V+NP constructions, as in (1) below: (1) Have a rest, a read, a cry, a think Take a sneak, a drive, a walk, a plunge Give a sigh, a shout, a shiver, a pull, a ring The reason behind the notion of ‘light’ as used here is that the verbs do not exhibit full predication. In other words, one does not actually ‘give’ a shout but ‘shouts’, or does not ‘take’ a drive, but ‘drives’. In this regard, verbs serve as a verbal licenser for nouns. However, it cannot be concluded that verbs entirely lack semantic content, as there is a clear difference between take a ride and give a ride. All things considered, these types of verbs do not preserve their full semantic content, nor are they semantically empty. Butt (1995), based on agreement, anaphora, and control analysis proposes light verb constructions to be monoclausal. Within the GB framework, complex predicates are referred to as light verbs, and their argument structure is suggested to consist of X+ V (see e.g. Grimshaw and Mester 1988). Various definitions are given by many other researchers to describe light verbs, and it has also been observed that light verbs exhibit different argument structure cross-linguistically. As for the semantics of light verbs, it exhibits cross-linguistic analogy. In the languages that possess only one light verb, the most prototypical light verb is ‘do’ or ‘make’. Other examples appear as (4): a. motion verbs such as ‘go’ or ‘come’ b. verbs of impact such as ‘hit’ or ‘spear’ c. ‘give’ d. verbs of trajectory such as ‘catch’ or ‘fall’ e. psych verbs and verbs of volition such as ‘think’, ‘want’ and ‘try’ (Adapted from Bowern (2006:8). 2.2.1 Event structure of the light verbs (in Turkic) Butt (1995) proposes that light verbs embody information about the event structure. So they can be stated to be semantically bleached light verbs which contribute to the structure of the event, such as duration or telicity. �Light verb constructions in Turkic complex predicates possess certain distinctions which require a special treatment. The light verb constructions can contribute to the predicate meaning in the following four ways (5): (Bowern 2006:8): (5) a. Internal event structure: The light verb gives additional information about the internal structure of the event denoted by the coverb. b. Trajectory: The light verb marks associated motion, i.e., the path of the action/ event denoted by the coverb. c. Quasi-modal information: The light verb encodes modal information about the event. d. Participant information: The light verb provides information about the theta-role of clause participants and in some cases adds a theta-role to the argument structure of the predicate. Lexical verbs too, can be used in complex predicates, in which a gerund or participle combines with an inflecting verb. An example is provided in (6): (6) Bola kitobni Child book –ACC o’qib read-GER turdi. (Uzbek) ‘stand’3-PST. ‘A child kept on reading the book’. In example (6) above, the finite verb is tur- ‘stand’. However, the theta-role is assigned by the verb o’qi- ‘read’, and the same verb is assigning ACC case to the NP kitob ‘book’. The main lexical meaning of the predicate is expressed by gerund o’qi‘read’, and tense/aspect and agreement are marked on the finite verb tur- ‘stop’. Bowern (2004) proposes verb classification in order to describe the functional properties of this type of light verb constructions in Turkic languages. In Turkish, for instance, the verb ‘durmak’ is effectively used to form the complex predicates. In Uzbek, on the other hand, there are more than twenty such verbs used to form these constructions, and they display more idiosyncratic and lexicalized meaning (Bowern 2006). Section 4 will provide and analyze examples for various types of light verb constructions. 3. Approaches for analyzing complex predicates Studying the syntax of complex predication involves the analysis of relationship between the preverb and the light verb, and their role in clause internal argument assignment. The two main approaches implicate argument unification (e.g. Butt 1995; see also Wilson 1999) versus �argument transfer (Grimshaw and Mester (1988). The former would involve merging of the preverb with the light verb, thereby contributing to the argument structure of the derived complex predicate. As for the latter case, the light verb lacks the argument structure of its own, and the argument structure of the preverb is passed on to the light verb. However, Hale and Keyser (2002) argue for a different approach with regards to the analysis of the verbal predicates. Under this analysis all verbal structures are complex, since they are proposed to have a root and a verbal head which undergo conjoinment. This theory attempts to bring together all alternations in argument structure in L-syntax, arguing that roots themselves have complex derivational structure. It argues that intransitive verbs such as ‘work’ or ‘fish’ are derived conflating a nominal element with an abstract verbal head, and it views the difference between simple and complex predicates in the realization of S-syntax. Hale and Keyser (2002) theory explains numerous constructions and argument structure variations. Verbs such as ‘redden’, ‘darken’, ‘clear’, etc. are proposed to consist of an adjectival complement and an abstract verbalizing head. The tree structure in (7) below illustrates it in the example of ‘darken’, as in ‘the room darkened’. (7) VP V’ NP room V A -en dark As for the transitive verb construction as in ‘Alan darkened the room’, another abstract causative head is introduced in the structure (8), and the adjective-verb complex conflates into the higher verb. (8) VP NP V’ �Bertie VP VP CAUSE NP room V’ V -en A dark 3.1. Phrase structure of light verb constructions Various opinions have been proposed within the GB literature to capture the tree structure representations of the X+V constructions. The VP shell hypothesis (dates back to Larson, 1988, 1990; Hale and Keyser 1991, 1993; Chomsky 1995) treats the light verb as a ‘little-v’ above the VP (9): (9) vP v’ DP VP v V’ DP VP V DP V’ obj V 3.2. Criteria for identifying complex predicates �Bowern (2006) lists a set of formal criteria according to which complex predicates can be identified. Those criteria will be directly cited below: a. Event structure – the predicate describes a single event (as viewed by speakers) and not a sequence of conjoined events; b. Selection criteria – almost any verb can be in the coordinate construction as long as the two events are consecutive and the subjects are identical, but the verb in complex predicate constructions is confined to a set of up to approximately 20 verbs (Wurm 1953:514). c. Word-order – the converb and the inflected verb cannot be separated by intervening material, and constituency is strict; d. Nominalization – predicate as a whole may be nominalized; e. Interrogatives – the predicate behaves as a single unit for interrogative marking; f. Negation and temporal adverbs – have scope over the entire predicate, not just the converb. The following section will analyze complex predicate constructions from Uzbek based on the abovementioned criteria. 4. Data and analysis The previous section discussed certain criteria which can be elaborated in order to identify and analyze complex predicate constructions. The first criterion sets the event structure of the predicate and states that a predicate describes a single event (as viewed by speakers) and not a sequence of conjoined events. This will be checked in the example (10) below: (10) Qiz girl NOM ko’chadan o’t-ib street DAT pass-IB bor-yap-ti. go-PRS-PROG-3SG ‘The girl is walking along the street’. As seen in (10) above, the predicate consists of V+V, the verb o’t ‘ pass’, and the light verb bor ‘to go’. Both verbs refer to the same event, which is ‘walk along/past’. The light verb is expressing aspectual meaning of continuity. The second criterion, the selection criterion, proposes that not all verbs can be used in complex predicate constructions, yet that there are certain verbs that can be used in such constructions. The number of verbs varies cross-linguistically, from a single verb to almost twenty. With more than twenty verbs, Uzbek is very rich when it comes to the number of light verbs. Some of these verbs are ‘ol’ (take), ‘bor’ (go), ‘kel’ (come), ‘qil’ (do), ‘ket’ (leave), ‘qol’ �(stay), ‘o’t’ (pass), ‘ber’ (give) and ‘qo’y’ (put). In (11) and (12) examples with some of these verbs are provided: (11) Erkak ko’rkam guldasta Man beautiful bouquet sotib ol -di. buy-IB take-3PST (Uzbek) ‘The man bought a beautiful bouquet’. (12) Bunaqa ishlarni Such o’rganib business qo’ygin. learn- IB put -2IMP ‘You should learn these kind of things’. In (11) the light verb ‘ol’( take )is used with aspectual meaning to express completeness. Although two verbs are being used, ‘sot’(buy) and ‘ol’(take), the predicate is referring to the single event of buying. In (12) we have an example of a different light verb, ‘qo’y’ (put). This verb is used with a meaning similar to English modal verb should. The converb ‘o’rgan’ (learn) together with the light verb is expressing the overall idea ‘should learn’ The third criterion proposed that there is a rigid word order and that the converb and the inflected verb cannot be separated by intervening material and constituency is strict. In order to check this criterion, let us have a look at example (13 a, b, c): (13) a. Ahmadjon shoshib A ketib qoldi. hurry-IB go-IB remain-3.PST ‘Ahmadjon left hurriedly ‘ b. * Ahmadjon shoshib qolib ketti. hurry-IB remain –IB go-3.PST. A c. Ahmadjon A darrov shoshib ketib qoldi. immediately hurry-IB go-IB remain-3.PST ‘Ahmadjon left immediately in a hurry’ d. * Ahmadjon A shoshib hurry-IB ketib go-IB darrov immediately qoldi remain-3.PST Examples (13 a, b, c, d) prove the third criterion to be true, since changing the order of the converb and the light verb, as in (13 b), and inserting an adverb between the converb and the light verb, as in (13 d) results in ungrammatical structures. To sum up, no element can be �inserted between the converb and the light verb, nor can the order of the converb and the light verb be changed. The fourth criterion proposes that the whole complex predicate can be nominalized. Nominalization markers in Uzbek are suffixes such as –lik, -moq, -(y)ish, - gan, -ajak, and –ma. Examples (14) and (15) exhibit nominalization of the predicates and it applies to the whole predicate: (14) Kitob-ni qachon sotib book ACC when ol-gan-i-ni buy-IB bil-may-man. take-3PRS-NMLZ know-NEG-AGR ‘I don’t know when he bought the book’. (15) Uning he-GEN ketib qolish-i shubhali tuyil- di. doubtful seem-3PST leave-IB stay-NMLZ ‘His leaving seemed doubtful/mysterious’. According to the fifth criterion, the predicate behaves as a single unit for interrogative marking. Examples (16 a, b) demonstrate how interrogatives are formed: (16) a. Erkak ko’rkam guldasta Man beautiful bouquet sot-ib buy-IB ol –di-mi? take-3PST-Q ‘Did the man buy a beautiful bouquet?’ (16) b. *Erkak ko’rkam guldasta Man beautiful bouquet sot-ib-mi ol –di? buy-IB-Q take-3PST? And the final criterion about negative marking proposes that negation and temporal adverbs have scope over the entire predicate, not just the converb. Therefore the negative marker appears after the light verb, and its appearance with the converb results in ungrammatical structures (17 a, b): (17) a. Erkak ko’rkam guldasta Man beautiful bouquet sot-ib buy-IB ol –ma-di. take-NEG-3PST ‘The man didn’t buy a beautiful bouquet’ (17) b. *Erkak man ko’rkam guldasta beautiful bouquet sot-ma-ib buy-NEG-IB ol -di. take- 3PST �Based on the provided examples above it can be concluded that complex predicate constructions in Uzbek behave in line with the criteria proposed by Bowern (2006). The next section will make final remarks and draw conclusions in reference to the analyzed data. 5. Conclusions There are important elements to be investigated at all levels of analysis, from basic discussions of what constitutes a complex predicate, to how they are shaped, how they vary, and how they change. This study has discussed examples of complex predicate constructions by providing novel data from Uzbek and by discussing them. Uzbek is extremely productive when it comes to this type of constructions. Unlike many languages that possess a single light verb, Uzbek is rich in variety of verbs used in complex constructions. They can employ agreement markers, which differentiates them from serial verbs. Provided examples have shown that converbials express simultaneity, cause and effect, and consecutivity. Both verbs in complex constructions share the same subject, i.e. they describe a single event. However, the object may or may not be shared by both verbs. Light verbs may differ cross-linguistically, some receive inflection, and others may be subject to argument transfer. What is significant about Uzbek light verb constructions is they both host inflection and contribute to the event structure. That is, tense and agreement markers, as well as aspectual markers are carried by the light verb in these structures. The constituency is strict in complex predicates in Uzbek, and there cannot be an intervention between the converb and the light verb by such elements as interrogatives, negation, or temporal adverbs. �References Bowern, Claire (2004a). Historical change in complex predication: Bardi verb morphology in historical perspective. PhD dissertation, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Bowern, Claire (2004b). (Some notes on) complex predicates in Turkic. In Heejeong Ko and Maryanne Walter (eds.), Proceedings of the First Workshop on Altaic Formal Linguistics, Cambridge, Mass: MIT Working Papers in Linguistics. Bowern, Claire (2006). Inter-theoretical Approaches to Complex Verb Constructions, Eleventh Biennial Rice University Linguistics Symposium Butt, Miriam (1995). The structure of complex predicates in Urdu. Stanford, Calif.: CSLI Publications. Butt, Miriam (1997). Complex predicates in Urdu. In Alsina et al. (eds.), Complex Predicates. Stanford: CSLI Publications. Butt, Miriam and Wilhelm Geuder (2001). On the (semi)lexical status of light verbs. In Norbert Corver and Henk van Riemsdijk (eds.), Semi-lexical categories : the function of content words and the content of function words, Mouton, pp. 323–369. Chomsky, N. (1995). The Minimalist Program, MUT Press, Cambridge, MA. Grimshaw, Jane and Armin Mester (1988). Light verbs and marking. Linguistic Inquiry 19(2): 205–232. Hale, Kenneth and Samuel Keyser (1991). On the Syntax of Argument Structure, Lexicon project Working papers, MIT, center for Cognitive Science, Cambridge, MA Hale, Kenneth and Samuel Keyser (1993).’On argument structure and the lexical expression of semantic relations’, in Hale and Keyser (eds.) The view from building 20, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp.53 109. �Hale, Kenneth and Samuel Keyser (2002). Prolegomenon to a theory of argument structure. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. Jespersen, Otto (1954/1909). A modern English grammar on historical principles, Part VI, morphology. London: George Allen and Unwin Ltd. Larson, R. (1988). On the double object construction, Linguistic Inquiry 19:335 91. Larson, R. (1991). Promise and the theory of control, Linguistic Inquiry 21:589 632. Öztürk, Balkız (2003). Complex predicates in Turkish. Harvard Working Papers in Linguistics 9: 171–192. Wilson, Stephen (1999). Coverbs and complex predicates in Wagiman. CSLI Publications, Cambridge University Press. Wurm, Stephen (1953). Das ozbekische. Jean Deny et. al ( eds.) Philologiae Turcicae Fundamenta 1, Wiesbaden: 489-524. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2938 Title A name given to the resource Complex Predicate Constructions in Uzbek Language Author Author Akbarov, Azamat TÜRKER, Lola Abstract A summary of the resource. Complex predicates are defined as constructions consisting of preverb/converb/coverb + ‘light verb’ (Bowern 2006). Each component of the complex construction contributes to the internal argument structure. The typology of complex predicates exhibits cross-linguistic similarities and differences. This study investigates the complex predicate constructions in Uzbek, which possesses a rich variety of light verb constructions. Novel data from Uzbek is provided, and it is analyzed on the basis of proposed criteria in the government and binding theory (GB) literature for complex predicates. The analysis reveals that these constructions express simultaneity, cause and effect, and consecutivity. Both verbs in complex constructions share the same subject, and they describe a single event. However, the object may or may not be shared by both verbs. What is significant about Uzbek light verbs is that they both host inflection, and contribute to the event structure. That is, tense and agreement markers, as well as aspectual markers are carried by the light verb. The constituency is strict in complex predicates, and there cannot be an intervention between the converb and the light verb by such elements as interrogatives, negation, or temporal adverbs. Key words: Complex predicates, light verbs, Uzbek language, construction, derivation Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d84fc0654055e7ad75fba355245ceee9.pdf 8e97f887a96a664697e8fd9f86c6c274 PDF Text Text Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics Semantic Group of Units with the Semanteme "Thinking" in the Uzbek Language: A Contrastive Analysis with Bosnian and English Lexicons Azamat Akbarov International Burch University Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Saodat Muhamedova Tashkent State Pedagogical University Tashkent, Uzbekistan Submitted: 12.04.2014. Accepted: 18.11.2014. Abstract The article deals with the semantic field units with semanteme "thinking" in Uzbek, Bosnian and English languages, defined by their integral seme, on the basis of the criteria specified internal semantic groups. Lexical units refer to the meaning “thinking” and semantic field, integral and distinctive meaning have been investigated, inner groups have been classified in the example of the Uzbek language. The study of linguistic units on the basis of semantic fields is widespread in the world linguistics. They are mainly directed at the study of semantic groups of verbs. Our research will compare the semantic fields of units with semanteme "thinking" in the Uzbek language. The given lexical-semantic field includes not only the lexeme of the verbs, but the lexemes of nouns, lexemes of adjectives, lexemes of adverbs and also some of the idioms. In the result of the analysis of the factual material revealed the following semantic groups of units with semantepe "thinking" in the Uzbek language. Keywords: semanteme “thinking,” semantic fields of units, idioms, factual material, Uzbek language Introduction Known works of Russian linguists devoted to the study of lexical-semantic fields (groups) include verbs as action verbs (Kildibekova, 1985), verb relations (Gysin , 1981, 1982 ), speech, feelings, thoughts and behavior (Vasiliev, 1981), verbs initiation object (Kuznetsov, 1974) and desire (Vorkachev, 1994), emotions ( 41 �Semantic Group of Units with the Semanteme "Thinking" in the Uzbek Language: A Contrastive Analysis with Bosnian and English Lexicons Rudakov, 1994, Fomenko, 1974), giving (Gonchareva , 1981), compliance (Gysin , 1989), speech ( Rubtsov , 1976), gender inequality (Gysin, 1977), verb classification relations (Gysin , 1980), full coverage ( Paducheva Motherland, 1993), verbs of communication (Glowinski , 2000). In Uzbek linguistics, the previous research was conducted in the semantic fields of the verbs of speech ( I.Kuchkartaev , 1977), states ( R.Rasulov , 1989), motion (S.Muhamedova, 2007) , relationships ( M.Sodikova, 1992) , feelings (T.Musaev) and view (Z.Siddikov, 2000). In German linguistics as well, previously the research was conducted in detail with the lexical-semantic group of verbs both by the German and the Russian linguists. These are the verbs of the event semantics (Vaysgerber, 1964, Vikmane, 1989), thinking ( Kozhevnikov, 1970), verbs with the meaning of connection (Rumin, 1970), verbs of receiving and withdrawal (Shcherbakov, 1975), verbs of motion (Orthen, 1976), verbs of directed motion (Alexandrov, 1993), and verbs of motion gehen kommen (Irgashev, 1985), sound (Savina, 1978), beliefs ( Egorchenkova, 1985), promotion (Paly, Slepko, 1999), verbs of behavior (Grishaeva, 1999), verbs of state (Vinokurov , 2002), verbs of surprise (Kolayan 2001), verbs expressing liquid (Vintsova, 2001), verbs haben and possession besitzen (Kalinin, 2002), auditory perception verbs (Vliegel , 1988), verbs with the meaning "see" in German and French (Schpping, 1982). Also in comparative linguistics method of semantic fields is widely applied as well as in this field it is applied mainly in respect to the lexical-semantic groups of verbs. There are some PhD thesis such as "verbs of movement in German and English" (Zlobin, 1993), "Visual verbs in German and Georgian" (Karegauli , 1991), "The German and Russian verbs of motion" ( Shamne, 2000), "Verbs of perception of English and German languages" (Babalova, 1989)," The verbs of sound in German and Russian " (Dementieva, 1982)," Russian and German verbs with the meaning of beginning (Shihanova, 1987), and others. Thus, the field of linguistics presently has no special research on the object of our study - the semantic field units with semanteme "thinking." There is the study in Russian linguistics that considers the verbal speech means of the physical and intellectual activities, recorded in the dictionaries of the Russian and English languages also functioning the class of verbs of intellectual activity in all poetry of the Russian texts of Joseph Brodsky. In these studies, detailed and comprehensive semantic features are considered only some of the verbs with seme "thinking." 42 �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics According to Steven Pinker, in order to analyze and compare the words, we should find a case in which the rule and the words themselves express the same content; however, even when compared, and when an equivalent was found (among the languages), they (the words) would still be psychologically and neurologically distinguishable (Pinker, 1999). Therefore, in the following examples we will try to find some equivalents of Uzbek words in the Bosnian language, with their explanations in English language, but always bearing in mind that the words can never be completely the same in two languages. 1. Units with seme "thinking, the thought." This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as Tafakkur (thinking), тафаккур қилмоқ (think), ўй (thought), ўйламоқ (think), ўй сурмоқ (think over), фикр (thought), фикрламоқ (think), фикрлашмоқ (share thoughts), фикран (mentally), фикрли (thinking), фикрий (mental, intellectual) and others. (Siddikov, 2000) In the Bosnian language the term for thought is Misao. From this word the following forms were made: misliti (thinking – to think), promišljati (to think over), premišljati (se) (to think through or to be indecisive), promijeniti misao (to change one’s mind), podijeliti mišljenje (to share thoughts), misaono (mentally), istomišljenik (the person that has the same opinion as someone else). (Halilović, 1996) In the English language, the word thought originally meant, “to conceive in mind, consider” (Harper, 2001). As seen above, most of the English equivalents of thought exist in both the Uzbek and Bosnian languages, except for Bosnian word istomišljenik (the person that has the same opinion as someone else). English language recognizes this word as supporter, however the word supporter means the one who supports the idea, but istomišljenik is the one who has the same idea as someone else, and shares that idea with the person. 2. Units with seme "Decision.” This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as аҳд (determination), аҳд қилмоқ (decide), аҳдлашмоқ (decide together), қарор (decision), қарор қилмоқ (decide), қарорга келмоқ (come to a decision), қарорида тўхтамоқ (stay on the decision), ҳисобламоқ (think that decision is right) and others. (Kuchkartaev, 1977) In the Bosnian language the derivations from the word decision are: određivanje (determination) or odluka (determination), odlučiti (to decide), odluka (decision), donijeti odluku (make a decision), držati se odluke (stay firm when making a decision), etc. (Halilović, 1996) 43 �Semantic Group of Units with the Semanteme "Thinking" in the Uzbek Language: A Contrastive Analysis with Bosnian and English Lexicons The Uzbek word аҳдлашмоқ (decide together), actually has a lot in common with the English word decision: settlement, agreement. The action of agreeing requires at least two participants, and sometimes the derived word in one language describes the original thought behind the main word in another language – in this case, English. (Harper, 2001) 3. Units with seme "discuss, deliberate." This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as муҳокама 1,2 (discussion), муҳокама қилмоқ (этмоқ, юритмоқ) (discuss), ақллашмоқ (advice), кенгаш 1,2 (discussion), кенгашмоқ 1 (confer, consult), маслаҳат 1,2,3 (advice, recommendation), маслаҳатлашмоқ 1 (advice) and others. (Glowinski, 2000) The Bosnian forms are: rasprava (discussion) and raspravljati (to discuss). (Halilović, 1996) 4. Units with seme "Awareness , understanding thought." This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as англамоқ 1,2 (understand, realize), тушунча 1,2,3 (concept), тушунчали (having a vision, knowing), тушунмоқ 1 (understand), тушунмоқ 2 (penetrate), идрок 1 (mind, intellect), идрок қилмоқ (этмоқ) (to work out, realize), зеҳн (mind, intellect, consciousness), фаҳм (ingenuity, resourcefulness), фаҳмламоқ (think, guess, know, understand, to catch onto), уқув 1 (understand, bright), уқмоқ 1, 2 (understand, know, take in a sense) and others. (Kuchkartaev, 1977) The Bosnian language has similar equivalences in these terms: shvatati, poimati (understand, realize), shvatanje (understanding). (Halilović, 1996) In the English language, the word “awareness” has two meanings. The one is that of thought: being aware of something. However, the original form of this word means to be cautious, to be aware of danger. This meaning is not very odd if we make a closer comparison with both the Uzbek and Bosnian languages, where in some of the forms (in Uzbek этмоқ: to work out, realize, and in Bosnian shtavanje – understanding), we perceive that all three languages at some point identify the word “awareness” with caution. 5. Units with seme "to justify somebody’s thoughts." This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as асосламоқ (justify), исбот (evidence, argument), исботламоқ (prove, argue), изоҳ 1 (explanation, interpretation), изоҳламоқ (to clarify, explain, interpret), талқин 2 (interpretation), талқин қилмоқ 3 (to interpret), тушунтирмоқ (to clarify, explain, expound, cram), уқдирмоқ (to 44 �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics clarify, explain, expound, cram, to make it clear), шарҳ (interpretation, explanation), шарҳламоқ (explain, cram, comment) and others. (Vasiliev, 1981) Bosnian: opravdati (justify), dokaz (evidence), dokazati (to prove), objašnjenje (explanation), protumačiti (interpret) pojasniti (clarify), razjasniti (to make something clear) etc. (Halilović, 1996) In this aspect, English language recognizes few more examples of justifying someone’s thoughts: to bear out (verify), confirm, and validate. (The Oxford Thesaurus) 6. Units with seme "Knowledge." This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as ақл (mind, intelligence, reason, intellect), ақлли (smart, intelligent), онг I, 1 (conscious, mind, reason), онгли (conscious, intelligent, clever), мия 3 (figuratively) mind, intelligence), мияли (smart, intelligent), интеллект, интуиция, билим 1 (knowledge, cognition), билмоқ 1 (know, possess the knowledge, to understand, to think), билимли ( knowing, having deep knowledge), билимдон (having deep knowledge), илмий 1,2,3 (scientific), олим 1,2 (scientist) and others. (Vinokurov, 2002) The Bosnian equivalents of these are: pametan (smart), inteligentan (intelligent), svjestan (conscious), oštrouman (smart, intelligent), znalac (the one who knows things). (Halilović, 1996) 7. Units with seme "Mental comparison." This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as солиштирмоқ 2 (match, compare), чоғиштирмоқ (match, compare), қиёс 1 (comparison and contrast, analogy), қиёслашмоқ (compare, to draw an analogy), таққосламоқ (contrast, compare) and others. (Vasiliev, 1981) Bosnian equivalents: porediti (compare), suprotstavljati (contrast), razlikovati (distinguish), analogija (analogy). (Halilović, 1996) English sources: to match up to, be on par with, be in the same class, come close to, hold a candle to; etc. (The Oxford Thesaurus) 8. Units with seme "Think for a specific purpose." This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as мақсад (goal), ғoя 3 (idea, concept), кўзламоқ 1 (scheduled to pursue, keep in mind), мўлжал 1.2 (basting, preliminary calculation), мўлжалламоқ 1.2, 3 (schedule , estimate, expect) , чоғламоқ 1,2,3 ( assume, schedule, to plan), режа 2 (plan, basting) , режа тузмоқ (режалаштирмоқ) (build-up, schedule), ният (intention, purpose, plan ) and others. (Vasiliev, 1981) 45 �Semantic Group of Units with the Semanteme "Thinking" in the Uzbek Language: A Contrastive Analysis with Bosnian and English Lexicons Bosnian equivalents: cilj (goal), ideja (idea), držati na umu (to keep in mind), promišljati (to think), očekivati (expect), pretpostaviti (assume), planirati (to plan), isplanirati (build up a schedule), namjera (intention). (Halilović, 1996) 9. Units with seme "has a sharp mind and talent." This group can be divided into two subgroups: A. Units with seme "has a sharp mind." B. Units with seme "has talent and ability." A. Units with seme "has a sharp mind." This sub-group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as зеҳнли (smart, quick-witted, shrewd, clever), иқдидорли (sensible, intelligent, understanding), тазимли 1.2, (clever, clever), фаросатли (perceptive, very clever), зийрак (smart) дид 2 (insight, intelligence), дидли 2 (shrewd, smart), заковат (bright, insight, intelligence), заковатли (clever, shrewd, smart), уқувли 1 (smart, quick-witted, shrewd, clever ) фаҳмли (smart, quick-witted, quick on the uptake ). (Taranov, 2012) The terms for this category in Bosnian language are the same as ones mentioned in part 6. In the English language, the expressions are: brilliant, expert, competent, adept, and proficient. (The Oxford Thesaurus) B. Units with seme "has talent and ability." This sub-group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as истеъдод (talent) 1 истеъдодли (talented), иқдидорли (with a strong, powerful mind, gifted) қобилият 2 (ability, gift, giftedness, talent), қобилиятли 2 (capable of, gifted, talented) лаёқат 2 (giftedness, talent), лаёқатли 2 (gifted, talented) and others. (Taranov, 2012) Bosnian: talenat (talent), nadarenost (talent), oštrouman (strong, powerful, gifted mind), nadarenost (giftedness). (Halilović, 1996) English language: gifted, skillful, skilled, brilliant, top-notch. (The Oxford Thesaurus) 10. Units with seme "Imagination and presentation." This group can be divided into two subgroups: A. Units with seme "Imagination." B. Units with seme "Representations". 46 �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics A. Units with seme "Imagination." This sub-group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as хаёл 1 (imagination, representation, thought), хаёлкаш (haёlparast) (dreamy, visionary), хаёллий (imaginary, fictional, seemingly) хаёлланмоқ (think, stargaze, dream), хаёлчан (dreamy, pensive) хаёлан (mentally, in dreams ) and others . (Taranov, 2012) Bosnian: mašta (imagination), bujna mašta (vivid imagination), sanjar (dreamer), sanjariti (to dream), vizionar (visioner). (Halilović, 1996) English: vision, inspiration, insight, by any stretch of the imagination, a flight of fancy (shows a lot of imagination, but it’s not very practical in use). (The Oxford Thesaurus) B. Units with seme "Representations." This sub-group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as тасаввур 1.2 (presentation), тасаввур қилмок (present), хаёлига келтирмоқ (idiom) (pictured in the imagination), кўз олдига келмоқ (idiom) (present before the eyes) and others. (Muҳamedova, 2007) Bosnian: zamisliti (to picture), vidjeti kao pred očima (present before the eyes). (Halilović, 1996) 11. Units with seme "processes associated with memory." This group can be divided into two subgroups: A. Units with seme "Total Recall." B. Units with seme "Forget." A. Units with seme "Total Recall." This sub-group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as хотир 1.2 (memory, mind, thought) хотирламоқ (remember, recall, restore memory), эс 2 (memory, mind, thought) эсламоқ 1.2 (recall, restore memory) ёд (memory), ёдламоқ 1.2 (remember, restore memory), ёдаки (memory, learn by heart), ёдга олмоқ, ёдга солмоқ, ёдга тушмоқ (idioms) (remember, recall, restore memory), эсга олмоқ (idiom) (remember, remember), эсга тушмоқ (idiom) (restored in memory, etc.) (Muhamedova, 2007) Bosnian: memorija, pamćenje, sjećanje (memory), pohraniti u memoriji (restore in ones memory – more used as a computer term), zapamtiti, naučiti napamet (learn by heart – in Bosnian language learn by mind). (Halilović, 1996) 47 �Semantic Group of Units with the Semanteme "Thinking" in the Uzbek Language: A Contrastive Analysis with Bosnian and English Lexicons English: consciousness, recollection, flashback, retrospection, camera-eye (meaning: the one that memorizes almost everything, mind’s eye (meaning: bright) (The Oxford Thesaurus) B. Units with seme "Forget." This sub-group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as унутмоқ 1, 2, 3 (forget, pass into oblivion), ёдидан кутармоқ, ёдидад чиқармоқ (idioms) - (go to tradition), эсидан чиқармоқ, эсидан чақарилмоқ (idioms) (delete from memory, forget), хаёлидан кўтарилмоқ (idiom ) - ( forget ) and others . (Vasiliev, 1981) Bosnian: zaboraviti (forget), izbrisati iz sjećanja (idiom: delete from ones memory). (Halilović, 1996) English: fail to remember, deliberately cease to think of, neglect to behave in an appropriate way. (The Oxford Thesaurus) 12. Units with seme "Guess, guess what." This group includes such linguistic units of the Uzbek language as чама 2 (assumption, reckoning, a rough calculation, the approximate definition), чамаламоқ 1.2 (assume, estimate, determine approximately), тахмин (guess, approximate), тахминан (presumably approximate), тахмин қилмоқ (assumed to figure), тахминий (presumably approximate) фараз (suggested hypothesis, assumption), фараз қилмоқ (assume, estimate, determine approximately) тусмол (assumption, reckoning, about the definition), тусмолламоқ (assumeestimate, to determine approximately), гумон (guess suspicion , doubt) , гумон қилмоқ (assume suspect doubt) and others. (Vasiliev, 1981) Bosnian: pretpostavka (assumption), pretpostaviti (guess, assume), odlučiti “otprilike” (colloquial use: to decide approximately), sumnja (doubt), etc. (HAlilović, 1996) So, a special study of the object of our research – the semantic field units with semanteme "thinking" – is not observed in general linguistics. There are studies in Russian linguistics in which verbal speech means considering the physical and intellectual activities, recorded in the dictionaries of the Russian and English languages and also functioning class of verbs of intellectual activity in the poetry of the Russian text by Joseph Brodsky. Conclusion 48 �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics At present, the lexical-semantic field includes not only the lexeme verbs, but the lexemes of nouns and adjectives, as well as some idioms. An analysis of the factual material revealed the following semantic groups of units with semanteme "thinking" in Uzbek language: 1. Units with seme "thinking , the thought ." 2. Units with seme "decision". 3. Units with seme "discuss , deliberate ." 4. Units with seme "awareness , understanding thought." 5. Units with seme "to justify their thoughts." 6. Units with seme "knowledge.” 7 Units with seme "mental comparison." 8 Units with seme "think for a specific purpose ." 9. Units with seme "has a sharp mind and talent." A. Units with seme "has a sharp mind." B. Units with seme "has the talent and ability." 10. Units with seme "imagination and presentation." A. Units with seme "imagination." B. Units with seme "representations". 11 Units with seme "processes associated with memory." This group can be divided into two subgroups: A. Units with seme "total recall." B. Units with seme "forget." 12 Units with seme "guess, guess what." The study of the semantic field units with semanteme "thinking" in the Uzbek language allows new possibilities for compiling dictionaries with valence and with the units of automatic data analysis. 49 �Semantic Group of Units with the Semanteme "Thinking" in the Uzbek Language: A Contrastive Analysis with Bosnian and English Lexicons References Johnson-Laird, P. (1987), The Mental Representation of the Meaning of Words, Cognition 25, 189-211 Klima, E. and U. Bellugi (1979), The Signs of Language, Cambridge, Mass, Harvard University Press 1979 Meyer D. and R. Schvaneveldt (1971), Facilitation in Recognizing Pairs of Words: Evidence of a Dependence Between Retrieval Operations. Journal of Experimental Psychology 90, 227-234, 1971 Halilović, Senahid (1996), Gnijezdo lijepih riječi (The Nest of Beautiful Words), Baština Sarajevo, 1996 Harper, Douglas (2001), Online (http://www.etymonline.com), 2001-2014 Etymology Dictionary Pinker, S. (1995), The Language Instinct, New York: HarperPerennial, 1995. Pinker, S. (1999), Words and Rules, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1999 Pisoni, D, and P. P. Luce (1987), Acoustic-phonetic Representation in Word Recognition; In Frauenfelder and Tyler 1987. Taranov, A. (2012), Uzbek Vocabulary for English Speakers, T&P Books Publishing 2012 Tsohatzidis, S. ed. (1990), Meaning and Prototypes, London: Routledge, 1990. 50 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2784 Title A name given to the resource Semantic Group of Units with the Semanteme "Thinking" in the Uzbek Language: A Contrastive Analysis with Bosnian and English Lexicons Author Author Akbarov, Azamat Muhamedova, Saodat Abstract A summary of the resource. The article deals with the semantic field units with semanteme "thinking" in Uzbek, Bosnian and English languages, defined by their integral seme, on the basis of the criteria specified internal semantic groups. Lexical units refer to the meaning “thinking” and semantic field, integral and distinctive meaning have been investigated, inner groups have been classified in the example of the Uzbek language. The study of linguistic units on the basis of semantic fields is widespread in the world linguistics. They are mainly directed at the study of semantic groups of verbs. Our research will compare the semantic fields of units with semanteme "thinking" in the Uzbek language. The given lexical-semantic field includes not only the lexeme of the verbs, but the lexemes of nouns, lexemes of adjectives, lexemes of adverbs and also some of the idioms. In the result of the analysis of the factual material revealed the following semantic groups of units with semantepe "thinking" in the Uzbek language. Keywords: semanteme “thinking,” semantic fields of units, idioms, factual material, Uzbek language Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics,PI Oriental languages and literatures,PL Languages and literatures of Eastern Asia, Africa, Oceania https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/68e63b612655c15d3965c60f870573e2.pdf b77f74f55ec0af9db4018c12c89a1c86 PDF Text Text Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics Body Parts As Frames In The Perception Of Turkish Learners Of English SauleAbdramanova KIMEP University, Kazahstan Submitted: 02.04.2014. Accepted: 25.11.2014. Abstract The aim of the research is to investigateconceptual framesofbody parts,as perceived by native Turkish speakers while they learn English idioms that employbody-part components. The study is mainly based on the assumptions of the theory of frames by Minsky (1974), who proposed the frame system forthe cognitive sciences. Vygotsky (1986) introduced conceptual frames in his theory of human development, and Fillmore (2006) operated with the term “frame” in his frame semantics. The abovementioned theories have been applied to make up a network of ‘nodes’ and ‘relations’ that Turkish learners of Englishbuilt up while guessing the meaning of English idioms, with the focus on their body-part components. The experiment was conducted among first-year students with an intermediate level of English from the department of English Language Education at Middle East Technical University, Ankara. Participants were asked to fill in questionnaires and to guess the meaning of 15 English idioms that employbody-part components such as eyes, hands, head, heart, leg/foot, nose, and tongue. To ensure thevalidity and reliability of the experiment, interviews were conducted with five respondents and a think-aloud protocol was conducted with six other respondents. The qualitative data obtained in the experiment were analyzed, and the results showed that Turkish students build different frames related tobody-part meanings based on their universal, cultural and personal world perception. Keywords: frames, idioms, body parts, English, Turkish Introduction The notion of frames was introduced to cognitive sciences by Minsky (1974), who defined it as a network of notions and interrelated links; together, they represent a situation that comes to the human mind when required. He identified different levels of frames: the top ones are basic characteristics of the typical situation, and the lower ones have slots that are open for being filled in by situation’s specifics. In other words, a situation has both general and specific features, and a frame network depicts those fixed and varied instances. In cognitive linguistics, Fillmore (2006) suggested a term of ‘frame’ instead of such terms as ‘schema’, ‘cognitive model’, ‘script’, ‘scenario’, etc., and he defined it as a system of concepts understood as a whole structure, parts of which are closely related to and dependent on each other. His ‘frame semantics’ is based on the assumption that all words are represented by categories that are motivated by situations, and grounded by experience and knowledge. Vygotsky (1986) introduced conceptual frames to his theory of human development; he contends thatthe social aspect of language is closely connectedto the society, and the environment plays a crucial role in the development of human beings’ thinking abilities. Newborn children acquire the surrounding world through conceptual frames; those concepts originate from personal mental models (mostly models of the physical world constructed by people) and cultural models (shared resources of the community formed by negotiation). Fillmore and Baker (2009) distinguish two types of frames: core (central concepts) and peripheral (circumstantial notions); however, they admit that there is a vague 259 �Body Parts As Frames In The Perception Of Turkish Learners Of English distinction between them. They also name extra-thematic elements of frames irrelevant to any description of a phenomenon, situation or lexical unit. English and Turkish languages belong to different language families; therefore, there are certain differences in the way body part components are structured and conceptualized in idioms, and how they are perceived and utilized in two languages. Those differences are justified by geographical, historical, political, social and cultural features of two nations. Meanwhile, a similarity may be found in the meaning of English and Turkish idioms as well as in conceptual representation of their body-part components due to common perception of the surrounding world by representatives of two nations and due to the universality of body-part functions. Method of research The objective of this study is to investigate the frames Turkish learners articulate while guessing the meaning of English idioms that employ body-part components. The data were collected by conducting an experiment among 20 first-year students with an intermediate level of English from the department of English Language Education at Middle East Technical University, Ankara. Participants were asked to fill in questionnaires that contained15 English idioms that use components of body parts, such as eyes, hands, head, heart, leg/foot, nose, and tongue; participants had to guess the meaning of the idioms, which were culled from National British Corpus. The selection of idioms was based on the frequency of their usage, a wider representation of body parts as components, and the representation of English idioms not/having equivalent and analogous Turkish idioms.Questionnaires were designed to identify the meaning of idioms and to reveal background information about the respondents (gender, age, how long they had been learning English, mother tongue and family language). To ensurethe validity and reliability of the experiment, interviews were conducted with five respondents and a thinkaloud protocol was conducted with six other respondents. Data analysis The data obtained from the group of participants withan intermediate level of English were analyzed to find out how learners at this level of English tend to define idioms. The analysis is based on the results received from questionnaires, interviews and think-aloud protocols. The answers were classified according to their relation to idioms’ components. Only two groups of responses were considered – those that directly or indirectly referred to body part components. The definitions identified as relating to other parts of idioms were not included in the analysis. Eyes EYES are associated with seeing/watching/observing, and its conceptual interpretationis SEEING IS KNOWING. A considerable amount of respondents attributed the notion of VISION IS CONTROL to the idiom ‘To keep your eyes on the ball’ (If you keep your eye on the ball, you stay alert and pay close attention to what is happening): a ball is round, so it can go anywhere, keep it in front of your eyes; gözünütoptanayırma; gözünükırpmamak; gözünübirşeydenayırmamak; gözünütoptanayırmamak; to focus on the subject; çokodaklamak, gözünüayırmamak; gözleriniayırmadankonuyaodaklamak; gözünüdörtaçmak; göz kulak olmak. It is implied that if someone controls the situation, it will bring success, and vice versa: If somebody loses control, it will lead to failure. Two respondents attributed the notion of BEING BEWARE (to watch out); and one participant conceptualized SEEING IS UNDERSTANDING (to watch somebody carefully to understand what s/he is doing). One student indicated the notion of SEEING IS MOVING TO GOALS: always on the way to your goal. The eyes are given the function of ‘seeing the goals’ and ‘stimulating a human being to move in their direction’. 260 �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics The idiom ‘Blink of an eye’ (If something happens in the blink of an eye, it happens so fast it is almost impossible to notice it) also refers to VISION IS CONTROL: closing the eyes indicates a loss of control, but the action happens so quickly that control is still underway and has never been lost. Answers of some respondents related to the function of EYES FOR SEEING: bırbakışatmak, seeing just a second. Six respondents referred tothe Turkish idiom ‘Gözkırpmak’ (to wink); one learner extended the latter meaning to, ‘To close and then quickly open the eyes to approve something’ – EYES FOR APPROVING. One participant attributed an evaluative function to the act of seeing – EYES ARE EVALUATION: gözününkararması. There were also answers that can be referred to peripheral frames: something valuable/important for somebody; something that is very close to us; and to an extra-thematic one: being happy. Mouth The idiom ‘To put your foot in your mouth’ (If you put your foot in your mouth, you say something stupid or embarrassing) is more related to the image-schema of ‘mouth’ as a CONTAINER rather than ‘foot’ as a means of movement. When a container is closed by another object, then the way is blocked and nothing can be taken out of it, nor can be taken easily.If the path for verbal articulation is not free, the mouth, as a container, produces defective utterances, i.e. says stupid things. An overwhelming number of participants provided answers related to MOUTH IS (NOT) FOR SPEAKING: talk considerably; mantıklıkonuşmak; düşünüptaşınarak, tartarakkonuşmak; ağzınıhayraaçmak; shut up; not to talk about a secret; to withhold permission for somebody to speak; not to say anything,trying to hold yourself backfrom saying it. There was also a metonymical shift of ‘mouth’ to ‘lips’ and their engagement in producing an act of smiling with further extension to the state of ‘happiness’ – MOUTH IS SMILING → BEING HAPPY: ağzıkulaklarınavarmak, to be quite happy. And one answer was absolutely disassociated with whole framework of the MOUTH concept based on situational experience of the respondent: canınıdişinetakmak (a Turkish idiom – to take one’s life in one’s hands). Nose In the idiom ‘Pay through the nose’ (If you pay through the nose for something, you pay a very high price for it) the nose is connected to the frame of PATH through which the air passes. If the passage through the path is difficult, the movement is hindered, and the destination is not reached. Also, the nose is related to the source-concept of LIFE: the movement of the air along the path, i.e. the nose, implies staying alive because air is a condition of life. So, if the path is blocked, i.e. you pay through the nose, then it may cause you difficulties or even death. Participants provided different meanings to the idiom giving an extended range of explanations based on functions of the nose – NOSE SMELLS: burnunakokulargelmek, sezmek, to guess beforehand (lit. smell comes to the nose); smelling bad; and NOSE SNOTS: burundanahilahilgelmek (to come from the nose in large amounts). Nose is associated with BEING GRUMPY: burnundankılaldırmamak (lit. not let a hair be taken from the nose); and TO REGRET: burnundangetirmek/ gelmek (to regret things that have been done); inatlaşmakvebununsonucunakatlanmak(lit. to be obstinate and to suffer from that); difficulty in doing something back. Two respondents based their definitions on the frame of NOSE IS CONTAINER/OBJECT - be beaten, havingabroken nose; her işeburnunusokmak.Associations have been developed either in connection with the difficult conditions of executing any actions through the nose, or emotions related to those situations. Ears Ears also refer to the notion of PATH; the sound goes in and out along the path, i.e. ears, to reach the destination. When the path is free, the movement is easy and fast. Almost all respondents referred to 261 �Body Parts As Frames In The Perception Of Turkish Learners Of English the frame of EARS FOR HEARING/LISTENING while guessing the idiom ‘All ears’ (If someone says they're all ears, they are very interested in hearing about something): listening carefully; all people are hearing something; can kulağıyladinlemek kulak kesilmekdıkkatledinlemek. Two participants extended the act of ‘listening’ to EARS FOR KNOWING: knowing/being aware of everything; to know everything. Hands Hands are means of taking and giving, and the concept is motivated by the metaphtonymies of HOLDING IS CONTROLLING and CONTROL IS PHYSICAL GRASP. Kövecses (2010) suggests the following conceptual metaphors for Hands: HAND STANDS FOR CONTROL, HAND STANDS FOR THE ACTIVITY, and HAND STANDS FOR THE PERSON. When processing the idiom ‘Play into someone’s hands’ (If you play into someone's hands, you do what they were expecting you to do and take advantage of this), participants produced the definitions based on the concept of HOLDING IS CONTROLLING: birininelindekuklaolmak; birininelindeolmak, birşeyebağlıolmak, to be up to somebody/ something; kaderielindeolmak (to hold the fate in someone’s hands). Two participants referred to the palm of the hand: avucundaoynatmak; avucununiçindeoynatmak. Legs LEGS and FEET are parts of the body responsible for walking; they are based on the frame LEG/FOOT FOR ABILITY TO WALK. They are also related to metaphor WALKING FORWARD IS PROGRESS, a reverse action (inability to move) is understood as failing to achieve success. The idiom ‘To pull someone’s leg’ (If you pull someone's leg, you tease them, but not maliciously) indirectly relates to the abovementioned metaphor: if somebody pulls your leg you will not be able to walk, and it will definitely hinder your progress. But the implication for this idiom is that pulling somebody’s leg is perceived as a minor disturbance and a slight annoyance that occurs among friends for fun. Two respondents provided the frame of WALKING to the idiom: to trip up; birineönayakolmak. Eight participants referred to PREVENT FROM WALKING: to displace somebody; birineengelolmak; (birinin) ayağınıkaydırmak; birinezararvermek; ayağınıkaydırmak, to make somebody worse; birkişininişiengellemek. Head Five learners provided the meaning of ‘Hit the nail on the head’ idiom by referring to HEAD FOR THINKING: to think about; to think deeply; to think carefully; karakaradüşünmek (fig. to brood over); düşünmek. Five respondents extended the process of ‘thinking’ to other mental operations – HEAD FOR UNDERSTANDING: make somebody remember or understand by giving clues/examples; jetondüşmesi; jetondüşmek, understand immediately; ‘coming immediately to one’s mind: birandaaklinagelmek; and HEAD FOR REFERRING önemlibirnoktayadeğinmek. Heart The HEART is typically associated with emotional spheres, and metonymically motivated as HEART FOR FEELINGS. It also has an image-schema of a CONTAINER FOR CONTENT; the content is a range of emotions people usually have towards each other. The idioms ‘Wear your heart on your sleeve’ (Someone who wears their heart on their sleeve shows their emotions and feelings publicly) and ‘Eat your heart out’ (If someone tells you to eat your heart out, they are saying they are better than you at something) refer to the abovementioned concepts: if the heart is worn on the sleeve, it is 262 �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics exposed to the outer world and feelings are not hidden; and if other people are better than you at something, you would better eat your heart not to display bad emotions concerning that fact. Most learners gave definitions to idioms based on the concept HEART FOR FEELINGS - to ‘Wear your heart on your sleeve’ idiom: do not be heartless; to behave like you do not have a heart; duygusaldavranmak, mantığıyladeğil, duygylarıyladavranabilmek; kalpkırmamayadikkatetmek, duygusaldavranmak; kalbiniellerinevermek, it is like kalbımsenindir; and to ‘Eat your heart out’ idiom: to be very emotional; you are a heartless person; kalbininsesindinlemek (lit. listen to the sound of your heart); acımasız, kalpsız; acımasızolmaz (it is not possible without pain). An exposure of the HEART on the sleeve is perceived as its OPENNESS to public: herşeyiaçıkçayapmakya da söylemek (lit. to do and to speak openly). HEART removed from its location implies logical and unemotional actions: to think reasonably, not emotionally; HEART eaten implies LOGIC and COMMON SENSE: düşüncesizcedavranmak (to behave thoughtlessly); being romantic, but logical; to follow common sense; to think about something so much and make it a problem inside. Two learners matched the English idiom with the Turkish one – a semantic shift from HEART to SOUL: canınıdişinetakmak (fig. to take one’s life in one’s hands). One answer was associated with an impossible task, similar to wearing the heart on the sleeve: to try hard to accomplish something. Lastly, participants referred to characteristics of human beings: always being in a nervous situation/to be nervous all the time – an association with STRESS; elinivicdanınakoymak, to be honest; kalbinielinealmak, cezaretlifalan; to be brave/being brave – an association with MORALE/ SPIRIT - moral/spiritual features of a human being; to be merciful; to be kind, understanding. Conclusion The qualitative data obtained in the experiment were analyzed, and the results showed that Turkish students provided different frames of body-part meanings based on their universal, cultural and personal world perception. EYES are associated with the ability to see and understand the surrounding world, accept and approve it, to be able to control the situation and evaluate it, to see risks and be able to guard yourself against dangers. MOUTH is for speaking and smiling, and as a consequence, feeling happy. NOSE is a container/an object that provides the ability to smell, as well as snot; at the same time, it is related to the condition of being grumpy. EARS are for hearing and listening; through them, people learn about the world. HANDS are associated with holding something and, consequently, controlling it. LEGS represent the ability to walk/not walk; HEAD is related to the mental functions of thinking, understanding and identifying similarities and differences in people and things. Lastly, HEART is referred to feelings and soul, expressing feelings and displaying human features openly. Respondents mostly presented core frames to body parts while guessing the meaning of English idioms. Since body parts function similarly in all human beings, particularlythe five senses through which people experience the world, there was universality in the way representatives of Turkish culture perceive them. There were also some peripheral frames that represent facets of cultural knowledge. There were also some extra-thematic notions that were mostly grounded on the experience and knowledge of respondents. The respondents’perception of idioms that use body-part components offersinsights about their experiences, values, and culture. This knowledge contributes to anunderstanding of young Turkish people’s interpretation of body parts. 263 �Body Parts As Frames In The Perception Of Turkish Learners Of English References Fillmore, Ch.J. (2006). Frame semantics. In D.Geeraerts (Ed.).Cognitive Linguistics:Basic (pp. 374-400). Berlin, New York: Mouton de Gruyter. Readings Fillmore Ch.J. & Baker, C. (2009).A frame approach to semantic analysis. In B.Heine&H.Narrog (eds). The Oxford Handbook of Linguistic Analysis (pp.313-339). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Kövecses, Z. (2010). Metaphor: a practical introduction. Oxford & New York: Oxford Press. Minsky, (1974).A Framework for Representing Knowledge.MIT-AI Laboratory Memo 306. Vygotsky, L. (1986). Thought and language. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. 264 University � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2799 Title A name given to the resource Body Parts As Frames In The Perception Of Turkish Learners Of English Author Author Abdramanova, Saule Abstract A summary of the resource. The aim of the research is to investigateconceptual framesofbody parts,as perceived by native Turkish speakers while they learn English idioms that employbody-part components. The study is mainly based on the assumptions of the theory of frames by Minsky (1974), who proposed the frame system forthe cognitive sciences. Vygotsky (1986) introduced conceptual frames in his theory of human development, and Fillmore (2006) operated with the term “frame” in his frame semantics. The abovementioned theories have been applied to make up a network of ‘nodes’ and ‘relations’ that Turkish learners of Englishbuilt up while guessing the meaning of English idioms, with the focus on their body-part components. The experiment was conducted among first-year students with an intermediate level of English from the department of English Language Education at Middle East Technical University, Ankara. Participants were asked to fill in questionnaires and to guess the meaning of 15 English idioms that employbody-part components such as eyes, hands, head, heart, leg/foot, nose, and tongue. To ensure thevalidity and reliability of the experiment, interviews were conducted with five respondents and a think-aloud protocol was conducted with six other respondents. The qualitative data obtained in the experiment were analyzed, and the results showed that Turkish students build different frames related tobody-part meanings based on their universal, cultural and personal world perception. Keywords: frames, idioms, body parts, English, Turkish Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics,PE English,PJ Semitic,PK Indo-Iranian,PR English literature https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/39e086f08c6726d6ac6cece3b6c4effe.pdf a34be0af336450f59d689b45d0b06b2a Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2769 Title A name given to the resource Effects of the Demographic Changes on Private Consumption: An Almost Ideal Demand System Analysis for Austria Author Author Walder, Birgit Aigner Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: The following paper analyzes potential effects of the demographic changes on private consumption. An extended Almost Ideal Demand System is used to simulate changes in the consumption of goods and services due to the ageing of the population in Austria – on national as well as regional level. Therefore, age-specific income elasticity and price elasticity are estimated. The estimated model is used to simulate the consumption structure in 2030 for four scenarios: Firstly, only the ageing process of the population is considered. Secondly, the ageing as well as changes in household structure are taken into account. Scenario three and four furthermore consider potential changes in income distribution due to the ageing as well as price changes and its effects on the consumption structure of the ageing society. The results reveal direct positive effects of the ageing of the population on the consumption shares of food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water and fuel, health, as well as miscellaneous goods and services, while the consumption category transport looses the highest proportion in total consumption. But it can also be seen that these results do not hold anymore as soon as potential changes in income distribution – as indirect effect of the ageing – are considered. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015-01-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/aef7ebd1d23beb394dbcb605fbb804d8.pdf 3dac86bad355f08e33f2ba9441832bc2 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) Adisa Omerbegović Arapović Sarajevo School of Science and Technology Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina adisa.omerbegovic@ssst.edu.ba Abstract: The paper estimates Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) using co-integration methodology to observe relationship between Real Exchange Rate (RER) and selected economic fundamental variables over two different sample periods. Time period of observation influences results and we observe change in signs and direction of relationship between fundamentals and RER suggesting that fundamentals and RER do not have a stable relationship and direction of influence. The findings suggest that RER is not a significant transmission mechanism for real economy towards achieving external balance as RER depreciation is not associated with an improvement in resource balance. Therefore, RER does not have a postulated relationship with resource balance variable. More appreciated RER is associated with an improvement in the external balance of the BH economy which is opposite of an expected role of RER depreciation in brining economy towards external equilibrium. However, pressures on RER sustainability exist due to negative resource balance. Potential disequilibria therefore could not be caught with the existing data which cover the post-war period only, and were marked by continuous negative resource balances. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 Keywords: Open Economy Macroeconomics; Real Exchange Rates; Transition Economy; Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH); Liberalization. JEL Classification: F41, F31, C13 Article History Submitted: 10 August 2013 Resubmitted: 4 April 2014 Resubmitted: 18 July 2014 Resubmitted: 25 September 2014 Accepted: 26 September 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JECOS S11516 59 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović Introduction Evidence of nonstationarity in Real Exchange Rate (RER) was the basis of work which viewed Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) as driven by real economic fundamentals in transition economies. Pons and Lacasta (2003) have used error correction equation and have estimated long-run cointegration equation of the ERER and the corresponding dynamic error correction specification which strongly corroborated the model and produced fairly consistent results across the countries under study. Utilizing the error correction method and corresponding dynamic error specification Omerbegovic (2005) has found similar results for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH). The impact of the fundamentals on the RER behavior was suggested to be dependent on the time horizon studied (Egert, 2006). In this paper, the relationship between RER and fundamental economic variables is examined using the methodology of co-integration and error correction model as found in Omerbegovic (2005) and Omerbegovic-Arapovic (2009). The findings suggest that there are changes in direction of relationship between certain fundamental variables and RER for BH depending on the sample period under consideration. This suggests that direction of relationship between fundamentals and RER is not stable over time. The attempt to estimate ERER from observable data on RER and economic fundamentals of BH due to existing nonstationarity in RER has resulted in estimated slight RER overvaluation in 2005, that is, before the financial and economic crisis of 2007 (Omerbegovic, 2009). Utilizing same methodology this paper finds support of undervaluation of RER in the first half of 2012. Counterfactual estimation of fundamentals in order to estimate misalignment is resulting in RER undervaluation due to the observed changed direction of relationship between the resource balance variable and RER, so that improvement in resource balance variable is associated with required appreciation in RER, opposite to postulated theoretical relationship, suggesting that RER is not a significant transmission mechanism in achieving external balance. The findings show that estimated RER misalignment based on co-integration methodology, which uses data over the period of serious external and internal disequilibrium in economy of BH, can’t be determined from observable data on 60 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) macroeconomic fundamental variables and RER behavior over the sample period, suggesting that RER misalignment in transition is difficult to detect using a time series methods. However, this does not mean that there are no pressures on RER due to fundamentals. Our findings also suggest that other factors, such as monetary phenomena should be examined as potential causes of RER nonstationarity in BH as Kanas (2009) has suggested that shifts between stationary and non-stationary epochs in RER behavior could be mainly determined by the monetary phenomena. The paper starts by examination of RER nonstationarity by estimation of ERER of BH in order to test the hypothesis of RER misalignment in the middle of 2012 and establish the role of real fundamental variables in RER behavior. Firstly, the literature review on real exchange rate behavior and patterns of real exchange rate behavior observed in transition economies is presented. Section on methodology provides analytical framework used in calculating ERER for BH. It is followed by empirical analysis of estimation of RER misalignment in BH over the two different time horizons. The test of relationship between RER and economic fundamentals of BH extends time series analysis from Omerbegovic (2005) to examine the stability of relationship between real economic fundamentals and RER behavior enabling us to test the effect of time horizon on relationship between fundamental economic variables and RER for BH. Overall, we do not see a large explanatory power of fundamental variables in explaining RER fluctuation in the second period, which is consistent with findings of Kanas (2009) who suggests different phases of RER behavior, where RER could have entered stationary phase compared to the first period. This is followed by discussion of results and concluding remarks. Literature Review: Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition Economies Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) is the real exchange rate associated with internal and external balance of the economy and the topics of equilibrium real exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has been widely researched due to importance of this transmission mechanism in achieving equilibrium for the countries that have started transformation process from planned to market based economies in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In other words, it is very important question whether their currencies are fairly valued at a given point in time. Various methods are used in calculating equilibrium exchange rates, which have provided very different results in terms of conclusions of relationship of fundamental economic variables and real exchange rate. However the single equation approach to determining ERER has been Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 61 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović identified to be applicable to determining RER misalignment both in short-run and long-run (Egert et.al., 2005) The overview of these studies suggests that transition countries could go through the period of trend appreciation of the currency, so that during the periods of rapid change in relative economic development levels, the ERER may exhibit trending behavior. (Froot and Rogoff, 1994) It has also been observed that there is uncertainty related to fundamentals and that relationship between fundamentals and real exchange rate is not stable over time (Egert, 2006), which corroborates the argument of phases in real exchange rate behavior. Application of single equation approach to ERER determination has been used to determine potential real exchange rate misalignment in transition countries using real exchange rate as dependent variable and explanatory variables which depend on the theoretical underpinnings of the research methodology. ERER which rests on counterfactual estimation of sustainable level of fundamentals is the basis of NATREX model in which the evolution of net foreign assets is endogenous, so that if investment rises in the open sector, capital inflows, reflected in a decline in net foreign assets, cause the real exchange rate to appreciate in the medium-term. In the long-run, when investment starts working in the open sector, the trade balance improves, resulting in an increase in net foreign assets, and producing an appreciation of the real exchange rate in the second phase. Egert, Lahreche-Revil and Lommatzsch (2003) also provide explanation that countries can have different direction of relationship between net foreign assets (resource balance) and real exchange rate due to the phase in which they are. In the catch-up process they may have a negative steady-state net foreign asset position. In other words, in the medium term, they finance their growth via foreign capital. Strong capital inflows appreciate the real exchange rate in this phase. However, once the desired long-term foreign liabilities position is attained, the countries have to start servicing their debt. Thus, for any additional increase in net foreign liabilities, the real exchange rate depreciates. The panel of transition countries examined indeed confirmed postulated appreciation associated with negative resource balance while variable was positive for OECD countries, indicating depreciation of real exchange rate associated with worsening of the resource balance, which was taken to be reflecting the long run behavior of the transition economies. 62 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) In the literature openness is associated with decreasing trade barriers, which raises imports more than exports. The deterioration in the trade balance would in this context depreciate real exchange rate. (Kim and Korhonen, 2005) Another important factor to consider in real exchange rate behavior in transition economies is role of regulated prices, as services such as public transport, communication, energy and water supply, communal services and government services have a large share in overall economy and could have been left unchanged during price liberalization, resulting in high inflation at the outset of the transition process. According to Zavoico (1995) in setting the price of regulated sectors only operational costs were considered initially because the capital stock of the sectors concerned was inherited from the communist era and because of political considerations. Eventually, once the general price liberalization is over, the progressive replacement of the capital stock at market prices, partly through privatization, led to huge increases in regulated prices because the cost of capital had to be taken into account as well. Therefore, price increases as an adjustment due to liberalization, are an additional argument in support for trend appreciation experienced in transition economies in initial phase. The above studies suggest that real exchange rate in transition could be going through changes in relationship between fundamentals and RER, which have important implications for policy making. RER settling in its long-term position will mean more depreciated level of RER required in order to service the debt obligations that have accumulated. There are limited studies on real exchange rate behavior in BH. In Omerbegovic (2005) real exchange rate of BH is related to fundamental variables of resource balance, openness, government consumption as share of GDP and debt over the period of 2002 to 2005, which has indicated that there was slight real exchange rate overvaluation in 2005. However, this could have been equilibrating phenomena as well. In this paper the study of real exchange rate in BH is extended over different time periods in order to answer the question as to whether the level of real exchange rate is appropriate at this point in time. The paper also attempts to provide explanation towards the phase in which BH real exchange rate behavior is in relation to the above mentioned postulated phases in the literature for transition economies. Due to importance of this transmission mechanism in reaching external and internal balance the paper looks at the behavior of BH real exchange rate, testing stability of Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 63 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović relationship of fundamentals and real exchange rate over the period of 2002 to 2012 and estimating RER misalignment in middle 2012. Methodology: The Cointegration Approach to ERER in BH The ERER can be estimated from a single equation- relating RER and fundamentals- which is a reduced form solution of an unspecified simultaneous equation system of the theoretical models of the likes of Edwards (1989), Lim and Stein (1995), and Montiel (1999) developed in Omerbegovic Arapovici (2009). The theoretical model provides for the postulated effects of change in fundamental determinants of trade policy stance, external terms of trade, composition of government spending, sectoral productivity differentials and resource balance and ERER. The improvement in the external terms of trade, increase in productivity differential in favor of traded goods and increased government consumption of nontrade goods are expected to cause ERER appreciation. The relaxation of trade barriers and improvement of resource balance are expected to cause ERER depreciation. Adopted empirical methodology is designed to capture this long-term relationship between economic fundamentals and real exchange rateii. The Empirical Model of ERER Estimation: Two Step Engle-Granger (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism The empirical model consistent with adopted theoretical framework for ERER estimation is consistent with Two Step Engle-Granger (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism as shown in Kemme and Roy iii (2002). Translated into stochastic terms the features of the theoretical model of ERER behavior requires that the disturbance term wt in Equation 1 is a mean-zero stationary random variable. et*=bFt*+wt (1) Where b is the cointegrating vector and wt is an uncorrelated random disturbance. Based on Engle and Granger iv (1987) who demonstrated an equivalence between cointegration and error correction for nonstationary variables in case on nonstationary variables the model implies that RER has a reduced-form error correction representation (Equation 2), which allows short run dis-equilibrium to be 64 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) treated as ‘equilibrium error’ and we use it to tie short-term behavior of RER to its long-run value. det=a + bdFt + cut-1 + zt (2) Where d denotes first difference; ut-1 is the one-period lagged value of the residual from regression (Equation 1), the empirical estimate of the equilibrium error term; and z is the error term with usual properties. Calculating ERER After long run parameters b of Equation 1 are estimated using appropriate econometric tools given unit root properties of the data series estimation of sustainable fundamentals, F*, is next step in measurement of ERER. The sustainable fundamentals are then combined with b to arrive at ERER, that is ERER=bF*. The effect of sustainability of the net capital flows and other fundamentals on ERER in BH is captured in this step. The estimation of the value of sustainable fundamentals involves some methodological issues. Time series based (or data based) permanent values of fundamentals are by nature of construction of cointegration methodology unable to detect substantial misalignment (Baffes, Elbadawi and O’Connell v, 1999:443). However, in case of BH counterfactual estimation of the variables of debt service to export and net sustainable capital flows vi does not create pressures towards RER devaluation as the estimated direction of influence of these variables is opposite to theoretically postulated relationship, so that increase in these variables results in more appreciated ERER. In the case of exogenous variables and those that adjust very slowly the time series based estimates of their sustainable values are used along the methodology of Baffes vii et al. (1999) which use moving averages to estimate permanent values of fundamentals in ERER calculation. The import content of investment already reflected in high value of observed openness variable leaves conclusion that trade policy is already very open (imports and exports to GDP ratio have been above 1 for most of the sample period) and moving average of actual openness variable is used for BH. Government consumption in total expenditure is considered as slower changing so that its Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 65 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović permanent value is obtained as moving average of data series. Moving averages technique is one of simple 3 year moving average for all of the series. ERER calculation as “sustainable” RER, which is the fitted RER in which the fundamentals have been replaced by their sustainable values viii, enables us to calculate the RER misalignment for BH in the middle of 2012. Given the equilibrium real exchange rate the misalignment can be calculated as: mt=et*-et (3) Once the misalignment is calculated we have determined whether the currency is overvalued or undervalued at present and may make statements about the RER misalignment in BH in 2012. Empirical Analysis: Estimation of ERER Misalignment in BH In this section the misalignment of the real exchange rate in BH is estimated for the middle of 2012. We begin by defining and documenting the sources of data. After results of the time series properties of the data are obtained, tests for the existence of co-integrating relationship between the fundamentals and real exchange rate are performed. Estimation of the long run parameters b of the ERER vector (et*=b*Ft) using the appropriate econometric tools given the time series properties of the data is thenconducted. Lastly, the ERER is calculated given the sustainable values of fundamentals where counterfactual estimate of sustainable resource balance given sustainable net capital flows and time series estimates of slower adjusting fundamentals are combined with the estimated parameters b to calculate the degree of RER misalignment as the difference between the ERER and the actual RER. Definition and Measurement of the Variables The variables found in the reduced form single equation are the actual real exchange rate (et) and the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate (Ft). Real exchange Rate (RER) or e - is taken as the multilateral trade weighted index which is as a measure of RER used in evaluating competitiveness. It is necessary to use or construct a broad multilateral index of the real exchange rate (Edwards ix, 1989:88), which provides a measure of the degree of competitiveness of a country relative to a group of its trading partners. The Central Bank of Bosnia and 66 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) Herzegovina (CBBH) construct of the multilateral index of the real exchange rate is used, which is consistent with the methodology of Edwards (1989: 88). Openness or OPEN is defined as the ratio of imports (IMP) and exports (EXP) to GDP (GDP): OPEN= (IMP+EXP)/GDP. Resource Balance to GDP Ratio (RESGDP). The value of exports (EXP) minus the value of imports (IMP), divided by the GDP (GDP). Thus RESGDP= (EXPIMP)/GDP. x DEBT is the ratio of debt service to exports expressed in percentage. GOVCON is simply the ratio of government consumption expenditure to total government expenditure. The data were obtained from two sources: 1) CBBH, 2) the IMF- International Financial Statistics. Time Series Properties of Data Series Table 1 presents the results of the standard Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) (1979) statistics and the Philipps-Perron (PP) test (1988), which are used to assess the unit root properties of the data. The MacKinnon critical values (1991) are reported alongside of the results of the ADF and the PP tests. Table 1: Tests for Stationarity ADF PP Decision RER -3.62 -3.15 I(1) RESGDP -1.33 -1.40 I(1) OPEN -3.78 -3.80 I(0) GOVCON -2.57 -2.37 I(1) DEBT -1.02 -3.96 I(1) Notes: test assumption includes constant in test equation. For the Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics (ADF), the MacKinnon critical values are: 1%=-3.62, 5%=2.94, 10%=-2.60. Critical values for the PP test are: 1%=-3.61, 5%=-2.93, 10%=2.60. Sample period is 2002Q2 to 2012Q2. The results obtained from the standard ADF and the PP test suggest that almost all of the variables under consideration exhibit unit root properties, that is, they are integrated of order one and their first differences are stationary. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 67 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović Test of Cointegration Since the relevant data series used in the empirical analysis are nonstationary (integrated of order one) it follows that a cointegrating regression can potentially be formed if the series are found to be cointegrated. Table 2 contains the Johansen (1998) test for the number of cointegrating vectors for BH. The Johansen maximum-likelihood procedure which tests for the number of co-integrating vectors in Table 2, shows that there is 1 co-integrating vector for BH over the period of 2001Q1 to 2012Q2, consistent with findings of Omerbegovic (2005) over the shorter time span. Table 2: BH- Johansen Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Testing the Number of Cointegrating Vectors xi Null (1) R=0 Likelihood Ratio (2) 0.57 Max. eig. Stat. [95% crit] (3) 69.82 R<=1 0.40 47.86 R<=2 0.27 29.78 R<=3 0.13 15.50 The variable set is (RER, RESGDP, OPEN, DEBT, GOVCON) Sample period is 2002Q2 to 2012Q2. Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating equation(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values Testing for Breaks Since the paper postulates that real exchange rate might be going through different phases in its behavior it tests for breaks in a time series regression function over the sample time period. Using the Chow test it is found that the suggested break point is 2005, which is a year when observation of time series data on resource balance indicates significant improvement in resource balance variable. This could have been situation of resource balance variable moving towards its long term position. The paper reports results of cointegrating equation over the whole sample as well, as these are then considered to be relationships that hold on ‘average’, in the sense that the estimate combines the two different periods. (Stock and Watson, 2012:599) 68 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) Besides having these overall ‘average’ results reported, the paper estimates cointegrating equation over two sample periods divided by postulated structural break in data: first sample includes observations from 2001Q1 to 2005Q4 and second sample includes observations from 2006Q1 to 2012Q2. The examination of stationarity and cointegration indicators for these two sample periods indicates that series under examination are nonstationary over these periods and that there are cointegrating equations in these two periods as well. Estimation of Cointegrating Relationship between RER and Fundamentals The existence of cointegration between the variables of RER and the fundamentals suggests that the econometric techniques of Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism are appropriate for estimating the relationship between RER and its fundamental determinants. Table 3 presents estimated cointegrating parameters, b, in using the two step Engle-Granger (1987) cointegration and error correction methodology (1987). Cointegration implies that the residuals of Equation 1, wt, are stationary, and this restriction provides a test for cointegration xii. Table 4 provides results of this EngleGranger (1987) two-step procedure test for cointegration. There is strong evidence of cointegration, as indicated by the unit-root test applied to the estimated residuals: the calculated value rejects nonstationarity in favor of stationarity at standard levels xiii. Finally, the short-term dynamics of real exchange rate, e, is examined by estimating an error correction model of Equation 2, where residuals from static regression (wt) in Equation 1, are used in place of the equilibrium error on the right hand side of the error correction equation to tie short-term behavior of RER (e) to its long-run value. Table 5 provides results of estimation of Equation 2 for BH, over the two sample periods. The findings suggest that the short run effects are generally in the same direction as the long run effects. A crucial parameter in estimation of short-term dynamics is the coefficient of the ERROR (w in Equation 1) in the second step of the Error Correction Procedure, which measures the speed of adjustment of the RER to its equilibrium level. Importantly, the error term is less than one in absolute terms and Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 69 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović statistically significant, hence the equilibrium real exchange rate is stable (Lim and Stein, 1995). Table 3: Step One Engle-Granger (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction Procedure-Long Run Parameter Estimates: BH Sample 2002Q2 to 2005Q4 1 2 Sample 2006Q1 to 2012Q2 3 4 5 Coeffic ient 105.32 t-stat Sample 2002Q2 to 2012Q2 6 7 8 9 Coefficient t-stat 105.02 2-tail signific 0.0000 Variable Coefficient t-stat Coefficient 95.12 4.41 2-tail significa 0.0000 47.49 2-tail signific 0.0000 OPEN 15.45 5.42 0.0173 0.45 2.86 0.8763 1.65 51.6 40.78 RESGDP 0.13 1.41 0.1868 -0.05 -0.65 0.5204 -0.04 -1.20 0.2350 DEBT -0.17 -0.86 0.4083 0.11 0.74 0.4619 -0.11 -1.05 0.2972 GOVCON -0.07 -2.20 0.0332 -0.26 -3.07 0.0058 -0.24 -3.53 0.0011 0.4358 Dependent variable: RER Notes column 1 to 3: Adjusted R-Square= 0.7449; Durbin-Watson=1.6745 ADF (ebF): UROOT (N,0) = -3.06; ADF critical value 5%= -2.92; Sample period is 2002Q2 to 2005Q4 for columns 1 to 3. Notes column 4 to 6: Adjusted R-Square= 0.1857; Durbin-Watson=1.2362 ADF (ebF): UROOT (N,0) =-4.64; ADF critical value 5%= -2.99; Sample period is 2006Q1 to 2012Q2. Notes column 7 to 9: Adjusted R-Square= 0.3106; Durbin-Watson=1.4355 ADF (ebF): UROOT (N,0) =-4.64; ADF critical value 5%= -2.93; Sample period is 2002Q2 to 2012Q:2. The explicit form of Equation 1 tested is: RER=c(1)+c(2)*OPEN+c(3)*RESGDP+c(4)*GOVCON+c(5)*DEBT+wt Table 4: Results on Engle-Granger (1987) Two Step Procedure for Testing Cointegration Unit Root Test of the Residuals From the Long Run Relations. Sample 2002Q2 to Sample 2006Q1 to Sample 2002Q2 Long run ADF Test Order of ADF Test Order ADF Order -3.06 I(0) -4.64 I(0) -4.64 I(0) equation 1 MacKinnon (1991) critical values for rejection of null of no cointegration are -2.92 at 5% level for Sample 2002Q2 to 2005Q4, -2.99 at 5% level for Sample 2006Q1 to 2012Q2 and -2.93 at 5% level for Sample 2002Q2 to 2012Q2. 70 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) The important factor in considering the volatility of the model is to observe for serial correlation diagnostic since low Durbin-Watson statistic (DW) values accompanied by high R2 alert to the potential problem of spurious regression xiv. (Gujaratixv, 1995: 724) There are relatively lower AR2 values (0.22) accompanied by DW test statistic values of less than two as we observe DW to be 1.23 to 1.67 depending on the sample. Therefore, the problem of spurious regression is not suspected. These results are similar to those found in Baffes et al. xvi (1999) where the same empirical methodology produces results of DW in the range of 1.14 to 1.16, whereas others like AtiqurRahman and Abdul Basher xvii (2002) study for Bangladesh do not report the DW diagnostics test statistic while using similar time series fundamental determinants of ERER and empirical model of two-step ECM. Table 5: Short Run Dynamics: BH (Two-Step Engle–Granger (1987) Cointegration And Error Correction Mechanism) Variable Coefficient ERROR(-1) DOPEN DGOVCON DRESGDP DDEBT 1 Coefficient 0.50 -0.55 -0.33 -0.06 -0.13 -0.20 2 t-stat 0.08 -1.18 -0.05 -0.79 -1.41 -1.59 3 2-tail 0.9349 0.2708 0.9569 0.4505 0.1942 0.1491 4 Coefficient 0.02 -0.58 0.12 -0.08 -0.12 0.06 5 t-stat 0.01 -3.15 0.07 -1.02 -2.04 0.82 6 2-tail 0.9873 0.0052 0.9422 0.3194 0.0548 0.4180 7 Coefficie 0.25 -0.51 -0.09 -0.06 -0.16 -0.06 8 t-stat 0.19 -3.83 -0.07 -1.34 -5.34 -1.09 9 2-tail 0.850 0.000 0.946 0.186 0.000 0.282 Notes to columns 1 to 3: Dependent variable: DRER; Adjusted R-Square=0.4082; Durbin-Watson= 1.09; Sample period is 2002Q2 to 2005Q4. Notes to columns 4 to 6: Dependent variable: DRER; Adjusted R-Square=0.5396; Durbin-Watson=1.6657; Sample period is 2006Q1 to 2012Q2. Notes to columns 7 to 9: Dependent variable: DRER; Adjusted R-Square=0.6203; Durbin-Watson= 1.8374; Sample period is 2002Q2 to 2012Q2. The explicit form of Equation 2 tested is: dRER=c(1)+c(2)*dRESGDP+c(3)*dDEBT+c(4)*dGOVCON+c(5)*dOPEN+c(6)* w(t-1) +zt Calculating ERER and Degree of Misalignment The ERER is obtained as a fitted value of the estimated long run cointegrating equation using the sustainable values of fundamentals xviii. This ERER is referred to as “sustainable” ERER and is reported in column three of Table 6 for BH for the two step Engle-Granger (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 71 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović Column 1 reports the actual real exchange rate while column 2 presents the fitted exchange rate from the first equation of Table 3 by using actual values of fundamentals. Column 4 shows the gap between the observed and equilibrium real exchange rates using the “sustainable” simulations for the equilibrium rate. The gap between these two series provides a measure of the real exchange rate misalignment. Since RER is measured as index where 100=1, the difference between RER and ERER is equal to percent overvaluation/undervaluation, with the positive sign representing overvaluation and the negative sign indicating undervaluation of RER. Figure 1 depicts graphically the observed, fitted and sustainable RER for BH based on Two Step Engle-Granger (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism. The gap between the observed RER and ERER-sustainable represents graphically the percent misalignment for BH for each year from 2001Q1 to 2012Q2 based on the results of the Two Step Engle-Granger (1987) Procedure. 72 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) Table 6: Observed and Equilibrium RER Indexes for BH 2002Q2 to 2012Q2 (2002=100) (Two Step Engle-Granger (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism) Note: The observed RER is the one used in the econometric analysis. The fitted RER is the one estimated from the cointegration regression. The “sustainable” RER is the fitted RER in which the fundamentals have been replaced by their sustainable counterparts. The RESGDP sustainable is equal to actual RESGDP adjusted for the change in RESGDP required in case of capital flows outflows comprising 100 percent of foreign portfolio inflows and transfers. The OPEN and GOVCON are given by 3 year moving averages. Following the suggestion made by Klein (1994) we assumed that sustainable debt service to export ratio is at most 20% but slowly increasing from the current levels in view of the higher repayment obligations. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 73 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović Misalignment is defined as 100(sustainable RER-observed RER)/observed RER. Misalignment over the sample period 2002Q2 to 2005Q4 and 2006Q1 to 2012Q2 is estimated using parameters presented in Table 3 for the respective sample. Figure 1: Misalignment – BH (as the Gap Between Real Exchange Rate And ERER) Two Step Engle-Granger (1987) Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism RER misalignment in B&H 108.00 106.00 value of the index 104.00 102.00 100.00 98.00 96.00 RER observed ERER fitted ERER sustainable 94.00 Note: Misalignment is given by the gap between the RER and ERER. Higher level of the index indicates more depreciated level required by ERER compared to observed RER, indicating situation of RER overvaluation (misalignment). Discussion Finally, the paper evaluates the observed results in relation to the postulated theoretical relationships between real exchange rate and economic fundamental variables and postulated phase like behavior of RER in transition economies. 74 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) In terms of overall ability of fundamentals to explain real exchange rate behavior it is concluded that fundamentals had much more power in explaining real exchange rate behavior over the period of 2002Q2 to 2005Q4. Figure 1 indicates that there was appreciating move in RER in 2006Q1 which then marks the period of change in relationship between fundamental variables and RER and much smaller explanatory power of fundamentals in RER behavior, as indicated by adjusted-R2 in Table 3 observed over these two sample periods. This evidence corroborates findings in the literature which claim the phase like behavior of RER in transition. Therefore, RER behavior first takes one pattern and then moves to another pattern, while these phases are due to the initial adjustments and transition that country has to go through until it reaches the pattern of RER behavior which is observed in developed matured market economies. In terms of the postulated theoretical relationship between fundamentals and RER, the evidence indicates change in sign and significance of resource balance (RESGDP) variable, which is in the second period (from 2006 onwards) having a negative sign and indicates that improvement in resource balance is associated with RER appreciation. As explained before, relationship between resource balance variable (which implies the change in net foreign assets) can be changing due to the phases that the country goes through in the catch up process. Country may have a negative steady state net foreign assets position. In other words capital inflows appreciate the real exchange rate in this phase. However, once the desired long-term foreign liabilities position is attained, BH will have to start servicing its debt, so that for any additional increase in net foreign liabilities RER will have to depreciate. It is suspected that BH is currently accumulating net foreign liabilities and once the servicing of that debt start RER will have to depreciate. The findings suggest that this momenthas not yet arrived so that we can expect much bigger shock to RER. Dueto the current exchange rate regime of the currency board required RER depreciation can be achieved only through flexibility of prices in product and factor markets if it is not to endanger the sustainability of the currency board arrangement itself. A significant and negative relationship between GOVCON and RER is observed, which indicates that increased government consumption is associated with RER appreciation. This sign is consistent with studies for other transition countries listed in Egert et.al. (2005:37) and in accordance to theoretically postulated relationship underpinning the single equation reduced form equation used to determine ERER. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 75 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović This is due to the fact that GOVCON is expected to be increasing the price of nontraded goods sector, appreciating these prices in relationship to the price of traded goods prices, which causes RER to appreciate. As previously explained it is also expected that the size of non-traded prices (water, waste, energy, taxes) is large in transition economies Also due to administered and regulated prices, which are composed mainly of services representing a large component of CPI in transition economies and the fact that these prices initially did not represent true costs which are necessary in the long run in order to include cost of capital or in order to comply with competition rules in acquis communautaire, these prices have kept rising and this process may not be over yet. This price increase, known as the Baumol-Bowen effect (Baumol, 1996), might not have yet fully completed in BH and the price increase could be dampened via privatization and market liberalization, which are still processes to be undertaken in energy, water, communal services etc. The DEBT variable has not been statistically significant and there is change in relationship on DEBT variable in terms of direction of relationship with RER. In later period worsening in DEBT (which is measured as debt service to export ratio increasing) would be associated with more depreciated RER. This is expected since increase in debt servicing in relation to exports puts higher burden on the country in terms of servicing its debt and therefore is likely to lead to RER depreciation. In the future BH is likely to experience worsening of this ratio due to increased foreign debt which is likely to put depreciating pressure on RER in the future period. Observed sign on variable OPEN is capturing a theoretically postulated relationship as increased openness is assumed to be associated with trade liberalization, which raises imports more than exports. This variable has same sign in both samples, however it is not statistically significant. Number of studies on CEE transition countries cited in Egert et.al. (2005:37) observe the same relationship. The results are suggesting that cointegration methodology captures relationship between the fundamentals and RER which is specific to the situation of the post-war economy of BH characterized with high donations and transfers after the war, thathave coincided with negative resource balance. Exchange rate regime of the currency board has at the same time ensured stability of the exchange rate and low inflation, but it has taken away from RER as an important transmission mechanism in the economy, leaving only flexibility of goods and services and labor markets to cure for macroeconomic internal and external disequilibria. 76 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) The results on relationship between RER and real economic variables in terms of the direction of relationship and significance of the fundamental variables in explaining RER behaviour indicate that the small open economy of BH has lost RER as a transmission variable in curing its external and internal disequilibria in its transition period towards a functioning free market economy. This result goes towards support of results obtained in Omerbegovic Arapovic (2011) which has indicated that choice of the exchange rate regime of currency board has been associated with much slower convergence of RER of BH towards the sample average, compared to Croatia and Macedonia, which have adopted more flexible exchange rate regime and, therefore, exhibited much faster convergence. From this we can deduce that their exchange rates were much more linked to the behavior of the fundamental economic variables compared to BH. Results obtained in this study and Omerbegovic Arapovic (2011) suggest that in order to access the readiness of each individual country in the region to join EU it is necessary to view the fundamental economic variables such as interest rates, inflation, government debt and deficits. The trends in fundamental economic variables of increased government debt and current account deficit create pressures which can notbe captured with our equilibrium real exchange rate misalignment approach as we do not show significant misalignment at present period. The existing relationship between real exchange rate and economic fundamentals for BH suggest detachment of RER from the fundamental economic variables. The resource balance variable does not show the expected direction of influence with RER, which is likely to occur once debt servicing becomes priority. The overall explanatory power of fundamentals in the period from 2006 to 2012 is low, which goes in support of the studies that find relationship between economic fundamentals and RER behavior to weaken once the RER enters a stationary period (Egert, 2006). Further studies on RER in BH should test the power of monetary variables in explaining RER as they are postulated to have more influence on RER once country enters the stationary mode of RER behavior. Conclusion Recognizing the endogeneity of the equilibrium real exchange rate and adopting a mild and testable assumption that distance between the actual and the equilibrium real exchange rate is a stationary random variable justifies the use of the cointegration method for estimating the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and its fundamentals. Since the methodology adopted assumes that the economy was in Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 77 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović internal and external equilibrium on average over the sample period, it implies that the average degree of misalignment in the sample will tend, by construction, to be small, if depending only on the time series estimates of sustainable value of fundamental variable of resource balance. Due to this fact counterfactual estimation of sustainable values of fundamental economic variables was used to determine sustainable ERER. The findings do not suggest RER overvaluation in middle 2012. However, the fact that BH in its post-war history has observed stable RER with continuous external disequilibrium could limit the ability of detecting ERER misalignment using time series estimates of fundamental variables alone. The counterfactual estimation of change in sustainable value of net capital flows on ERER indicates that in BH, the real exchange rate was under-valued by less than 1 percent in April 2012 using the Two Step Engle Granger Methodology. In counterfactual estimation for BH, the smaller trade deficit associated with the smaller current account deficit produces an appreciation of the equilibrium rate and therefore tends to decrease the estimated degree of misalignment. This is evident in lower sustainable RER (ERER), or more appreciated value of sustainable RER compared to the fitted RER value calculated using the actual resource balance variable. This finding is due to observed negative relationship between resource balance variable and RER, which theoretical models associate with initial stages of capital account liberalization when price of non-tradable goods increases and causes RER to appreciate. These findings go in support of an argument that structural adjustments which would bring flexibility to labor and markets for goods and services are required in order to bring about external balance as RER is not found as significant transmission mechanism in correcting external disequilibria in BH economy. Labor market reforms in direction of more flexibility and inaction of more flexible hiring and firing rules compared to the existing law, which was inherited from the socialist era and practically makes firing impossible for employers, should be priority for policy makers in order to move BH economy towards equilibrium. The paper tested relationship between fundamentals and RER in BH over two different time periods and discovers that time period of consideration influences the direction of relationship between fundamentals and RER. Direction of relationship between resource balance and RER indicates that worsening of resource balance variable is associated with RER appreciation, opposite to postulated theoretical relationship and relationship between these two variables observed in shorter sample 78 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) which included data until 2005. Examination of current account, and associated capital inflows that support current account deficit, indicates that negative correlation between capital inflows and RER is present, leading us to conclude that capital inflows associated with worsening of the current account deficit put appreciating pressure on RER. In the absence of these capital inflows there would likely exist the depreciating pressures on RER. This study also suggests that RER behavior exhibits phases in which RER initially exhibits much bigger connection to fundamental variables compared to the later period. This is in line with studies which suggest that RER could be first exhibiting trend appreciation after which it enters stationary periods. This needs to be further examined in future studies. Further research should also extend analysis and test whether other reasons exist for RER non-stationarity such as monetary phenomena and Balassa-Samuelson effect, which could not be fully assessed from the secondary data used in this analysis over the sample period. References AtiqurRahman, A.K.M.A. & Abdul Basher, S. (2002). Real Exchange Rate Behavior And Exchange Rate Misalignments In Bangladesh: A Single Equation Approach. North South University. Dhaka. Bangladesh. Baffes, J., Elbadawi, I.A. & O’Connell, S.A. (1999). Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. In Hinkle L.E., Montiel P.J. (1999) Exchange Rate Misalignment, Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries. A World Bank Research Publication. Oxford University Press. 405-465. Baumol, W.J. (1996). Children of Performing Arts, the Economic Dilemma: The Climbing Costs of Health Care and Education. Journal of Cultural Economics, 20, 183-206. Beko, J, Kavkler, A. & Borskic, D. (2012). PPP and nonlinearity of real exchange rates: new evidence from transition economies. Applied Economics Letters, 19(18), 1851-1855. Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH). Bulletin: Various Issues. Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina Quarterly Publication. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 79 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for an Autoregressive Time Series with Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-31. Edwards, S. (1989). Real Exchange Rate, Devaluation, and Adjustment. London: The MIT Press. Egert, B., Lahreche-Revil, A., & Lommatzsch, K. (2004). The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of Transisiton Economies. CEPII Working Paper No.14. Egert, B., Halpern, L. & Mac Donald, R. (2005). Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues. William Davidson Institute Working Paper Number 793. Egert, B., Lommatzsch, K., & Lahreche-Revil, A. (2006). Real exchange rates in small open OECD and transition economies: Comparing apples with oranges?, Journal of Banking and Finance, 30 (12), 3393-3406. Engle, R., & Granger C. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-76. Gujarati, D.N. (1995). Basic Econometrics. Singapore: Mc Grow Hill. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Factors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54. Froot, K., & Stein, J. (1991). Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 11911217. Froot, K.A. & Rogoff, K. (1994). Perspectives on PPP and Long-run Real Exchange Rates. NBER Working Paper No.4952. International Labor Office, (2011). Employment Diagnostic Analysis: Bosnia and Herzegovina. Employment Working Paper no. 98. 80 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) Kaminsky, G. (1988). The Real Exchange Rate in the Short Run and the Long Run. Discussion Paper, University of California at San Diego, Department of Economics (August). Processed. Kanas, A. (2009). Real Exchange Rate, Stationarity, and Economic Fundamentals. Journal of Econ Finance , 33, 393-409. Kemme, D.M., & Roy, S. (2002). Exchange Rate Misalignment: Macroeconomic Fundamentals as an Indicator of Exchange Rate Crisis in Transition Economies. Prepared for the European Association of Comparative Economics Meetings, Forli, Italy, June 6-8, 2002. Kim, B.Y. & Korhonen, I. (2005). Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogenous Panel Models. Economic Systems, 29(2), 144-162. Klein, T. M. (1994). External Debt Management: An Introduction. World Bank Technical Paper, Number 245. Lewis, M.K., & Šević, Ž. (2001). Currency Board in the Balkans. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Liargovas, P. (1999). An Assessment of Real Exchange Rate Movements in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe. Post-Communist Economies, 11(3), 299-318. Lim, G.C., & Stein, J.L. (1995). The Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate and Current Account in a Small Open Economy: Australia. In Stein J., Allen P.R., and Associates (1995) Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates. Oxford University Press. MacKinnon, J.G. (1991). Critical Values of Cointegration Tests. Chapter 13. In Engle R.F., Granger C.W.J. (eds.) Long-Run Econometric Relationships: Readings in Cointegration. New York: Oxford University Press. Montiel, P.J. (1999) Determinants of the Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: An Analytical Model. In Hinkle, L.E., Montiel, P.J. (1999). Exchange Rate Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 81 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović Misalignment, Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries. (pp. 264-293) A World Bank Research Publication, Oxford University Press. Omerbegovic, A. (2005). Real Exchange Rate in BiH and required macroeconomic adjustments in the context of BiH accession into the EU. Policy Development Fellowship Program. Sarajevo: Open Society Fund BiH. Omerbegovic, A. (2006). Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Proceedings from Conference: International Management Development Association (IMDA) Conference 2006. Omerbegovic Arapovic, A. (2009) Real Exchange Rates in South East Asia: Misalignment and Currency Crisis. Saarbrucken: VDM Verlag Dr. Muller. Omerbegovic Arapovic, A. (2011). Exchange Rate in Transition: Testing for Real Exchange Rate Convergence; Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Macedonia. Proceedings from Conference: International Conference on Economy of Integrations (ICEI) 2011. Univerzitet u Tuzli. UDK 336.748:330.342.14/.15 (497). Phillips, P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing For A Unit Root In Time Series Regression. Biometrica, 75, 333-45. Pons, J.S., & Lacasta, J.P. (2003). Exchange Rate and Long Run Equilibrium in Transition Economies. IAER, 9(1), 35-50. Rajan, R.S., & Siregar, R. (2002). Economic Competitiveness and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Singapore. Central Bank of Singapore Publication. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.M. (2012). Introduction to Econometrics. Harlow: Pearson. Williamson, J. (1994). Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Washington D.C.: Institute for International Economics. Williamson, J., & Mahar, M. (1998). Current Account Targets. Appendix A in Wren-Lewis S. and Driver R. (eds), Real Exchange Rates for the Year 2000. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics. 82 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) World Bank. (2005). Enhancing Job Opportunities in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Tzanninis, D. (1999). Malaysia: Exports and Competitiveness. In Malaysia: Selected Issues, IMF Staff Country Report. No. 99/86. Zavoico, B. (1995). A Brief Note on the Inflationary Process in Transition Economies. IMF Publication. Mimeo. Xiaopu, Z. (2002). Equilibrium and Misalignment: An Assessment of the RMB Exchange Rate from 1978 to 1999. CREDPR Publications. i Omerbegovic Arapovic A. (2009) Real Exchange Rates in South East Asia: Misalignment and Currency Crisis, VDM Verlag Dr. Muller, Saarbrucken., 57-79. ii However, empirical considerations require compromise. First, it is not possible to construct a meaningful time series regarding productivity differential between traded and non-traded goods producing sectors because of data limitations. So the Balassa- Samuelson effect is ignored. Second data on government spending on tradables and non-tradables are not available as such. Government consumption mostly includes non-tradable items. Hence, the ratio of government consumption to total government spending is taken to capture the effects of government spending of tradables and nontradables following the methodology of AtiqurRahman and Abd. Basher (2002). Unit prices of exports and imports were not available for BH so the external terms of trade could not be captured meaningfully, and we ignored this effect. It is also very difficult to a have a correct and comprehensive measure of trade policy over a long time series. Hence, like other studies in the present field, the proxy for the trade policy is taken by a measure of openness following Edwards (1989), i.e., the ratio of export plus import to GDP. An increase in this ratio is supposed to be associated with trade liberalization. Thus the list of fundamentals affecting equilibrium real exchange rate includes ratio of government consumption to total government spending, resource balance, openness, and debt service to export ratio. The proxies for the fundamentals were: • Trade policy stance is captured by construct of openness measured as ratio of trade volume measure (imports plus exports) to GDP. • Debt is the ratio of debt service to exports expressed as percentage. • Government consumption is simply the ratio of government consumption expenditure to total government expenditure. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 83 �Adisa Omerbegović Arapović • And finally resource balance is given by the difference between exports of goods and nonfactor services and imports of goods and nonfactor services. These proxies are henceforward referred to as fundamentals. iii Kemme D.M., Roy S. (2002). Exchange Rate Misalignment: Macroeconomic Fundamentals as an Indicator of Exchange Rate Crisis in Transition Economies. Prepared for the European Association of Comparative Economics Meetings, Forli, Italy, June 6-8, 2002 iv Engle, R. and C. Granger (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing.Econometrica.55. 251-76. v Baffes J., Elbadawi I.A., O’Connell S.A. (1999). Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate.In Hinkle L.E., Montiel P.J. (1999) Exchange Rate Misalignment, Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries. A World Bank Research Publication. Oxford University Press. 405-465 vi In view of the likely rise in debt of BH and macroeconomic sustainability, the paper considers direction of change necessary for the debt service to export ratio and the resource balance variable. This is done by excluding part of the “unsustainable” net capital inflows used to finance resource balance following the argument by Williamson and Maharvi (1998), so that paper differentiates between private direct investment, which tends to be long-term in nature, and liquid private portfolio investment, remittances and grants by excluding these later inflows to arrive at the “sustainable” resource balance. The other fundamental determinants of ERER should also be in their permanent state in equilibrium. Following the suggestion made by Kleinvi (1994) the paper assumes that sustainable debt service to export ratio is at most 20% but slowly increasing from levels observed in the sample (around 5% in 2001) in view of the higher repayment obligations due to increased external debt, and reduced grants and transfers. vii BaffesJ., ElbadawiI.A., O’ConnellS.A. (1999). Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. In Hinkle L.E., Montiel P.J. (1999) Exchange Rate Misalignment, Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries. A World Bank Research Publication. Oxford University Press. 405-465 viii The equilibrium real exchange rate is then the predicted value from co-integrating equation (et=bFt) based on a given vector of macroeconomic fundamentals, Ft*, assumed to be sustainable long run equilibrium values, et*=bFt*. ix Edwards S. (1989). Real Exchange Rate, Devaluation, and Adjustment. London: The MIT Press. x Two RESGDP variables were tested. One was found using our estimate of quarterly GDP following moves in Index of Industrial Production and the other using GDP estimates from CBBH publication on estimates of quarterly GDP figures. No differences were found in observed relationship between RER and RESGDP and the paper continues using the estimated quarterly GDP figures. xi The Johansen (1988) cointegration imposes a restriction on the reduced form or VAR representation of the joint distribution of the real exchange rate and its fundamentals. (Baffes, Elbadawi and O’Connellxi, 1999) We use a lag length of one for the underlying VAR system; 84 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) this is very restrictive even for annual data, but a longer length leaves us with very few degrees of freedom. The asymptotic tests indicate one co-integrating vector for B&H at the 1 % confidence interval. xii Baffes, Elbadawi and O’Connel (1999) note that estimates of b from the static regression are super-consistent, approaching the true parameters at a rate proportional to the sample size rather than the square root of the sample size; and they remain so even in the absence of weak exogeneity. xiii Note that the critical values for this test are more demanding than when testing for a unit root in a single variable since the OLS estimation tends to induce stationarity in the residual. (Gujarati, 1995) xiv Granger and Newbold, quoted by Gujarati (1995:724) have suggested: an R2> d (Durbin Watson statistic) is a good rule of thumb to suspect that the estimated regression suffers from spurious regression. xv Gujarati, D.N. (1995). Basic Econometrics. Mc Grow Hill Singapore. xvi Baffes J., Elbadawi I.A., O’Connell S.A. (1999). Single-Equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate. In Hinkle L.E., Montiel P.J. (1999) Exchange Rate Misalignment, Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries. A World Bank Research Publication. Oxford University Press. 405-465 xvii AtiqurRahman A.K.M.A., Abdul Basher S. (2002). Real Exchange Rate Behavior And Exchange Rate Misalignments In Bangladesh: A Single Equation Approach. NorthSouthUniversity. Dhaka. Bangladesh. xviii Once the long run parameters b in Equation 1 relating RER and the fundamentals are estimated, the next step in the calculation of ERER is the estimation of sustainable fundamentals, F*, so that ERER (e*) is given by e*=bF*. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 85 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2770 Title A name given to the resource Real Exchange Rate and Real Economic Fundamentals in Transition Economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH) Author Author Omerbegović Arapović, Adisa Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: The paper estimates Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) using co-integration methodology to observe relationship between Real Exchange Rate (RER) and selected economic fundamental variables over two different sample periods. Time period of observation influences results and we observe change in signs and direction of relationship between fundamentals and RER suggesting that fundamentals and RER do not have a stable relationship and direction of influence. The findings suggest that RER is not a significant transmission mechanism for real economy towards achieving external balance as RER depreciation is not associated with an improvement in resource balance. Therefore, RER does not have a postulated relationship with resource balance variable. More appreciated RER is associated with an improvement in the external balance of the BH economy which is opposite of an expected role of RER depreciation in brining economy towards external equilibrium. However, pressures on RER sustainability exist due to negative resource balance. Potential disequilibria therefore could not be caught with the existing data which cover the post-war period only, and were marked by continuous negative resource balances. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015-01-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/78afd5e0935fa5ce6544cbd0a2064456.pdf 5b0ca31fe9d3b29cdd6293e97ce2490f PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies Soap Opera Effect on Product Preferences in Terms of Country Image: A Case of Turkish TV Serials in Albanian Market Yüksel Köksal Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Burdur, Turkey ykoksal@mehmetakif.edu.tr Nihal İçöz Gjana Epoka University Tirana, Albania nihalgjana@gmail.com Abstract: TV serials can be leveraged as an effective mass communication means that is capable of sneaking into people’s lives, and altering their perceptions, habits and preferences. Today globalization has come to facilitate the way in which consumers are exposed to a myriad of foreign products, and country of origin and image emerge as major hints in assessing these products. Foreign TV programs that become popular in a country are known to contribute to the country of origin image of products involved. This study aims to study the way TV viewers in Albania, where Turkish soap operas are popular, perceive products of Turkish origin and whether Turkish TV programs have any effect on the purchasing decisions of Albanians. To this end, the data set of the study was compiled through one-to-one interviews with 413 participants in three Albanian cities (Tirana, Durrës and Kukës). Quantitative data were analyzed using factor analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) methods while qualitative data were obtained using the in-depth interviews with the people from the field who hold opinions about the matter at hand. The study produced positive findings that imply that TV serials influence product preferences of consumers. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 Keywords: Opera; Country Image; Product Preference; Turkish TV Serials. JEL Classification: M31 Article History Submitted: 19 March 2014 Resubmitted: 5 June 2014 Resubmitted: 7 July 2014 http://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JEO CSS11513 219 �Yüksel Köksal, Nihal İçöz Gjana Introduction Films, TV serials and shows have the potential to influence the audience views and make them adopt certain attitudes in specific issues (Pervan & Martin, 2002; O’Connor et al., 2008; Busby & Klug, 2001; Desai & Basuroy, 2005; Cho, 2007; Hudson & Ritchie, 2006; Kim et al., 2007; Riley et al., 1998). The characters in TV serials may emerge as real life role models for viewers and the places where these serials were shot may turn into popular tourism destinations (Balli et al. 2013, Kim & Long 2012, Busby & Klug, 2001). Soap operas are seen as one of the successful advertising venues (Pervan & Martin, 2002). They have a significant role in influencing lifestyles, purchasing habits and brand preferences of viewers as well as in boosting the image of the country of origin (Cho, 2007; O’Connor et al., 2008). They are at least capable of increasing the level of awareness of their country of origin (Kim et al., 2007). The image effect created by films and soap operas do not tend to be short-lived in general. This applies to both positive and negative images. Advantages of the positive country of origin image created by films and soap operas or disadvantages of the negative image so created may last for years (Hudson & Ritchie, 2006). The soap operas that portray a positive country image can boost the country of origin as a popular brand, thereby giving a competitive edge to the products of that country in the international markets and influencing the purchasing preferences of consumers. Turkey started to sell soap operas to foreign countries in 2001. Its exports have increased in recent years and Turkish soap operas have come to enjoy a sizable audience in the Middle East and Balkans. As these shows that secured international followers made positive contributions to the country of origin image (Brljavac, 2011; Türbedar, 2012; Radic, 2011), this also changed the perspective on Turkey (Öktem, 2010). The first Turkish soap opera was aired in 2011 in Albania, a country located in the Balkans, but it was in 1980 when Albanians first got in touch with Turkish films. “Al Yazmalım” (The Girl with the Red Scarf) is the first Turkish film aired in Albania (Telegraf, 2012). After several films that were aired in those years, Turkish soap operas invaded Albanian TV stations and they quickly became very popular (Agolli, 2012). Despite the fact that both countries enjoyed a common past, little was known about Turkey in Albania, and this has changed thanks to Turkish soap operas (Dumani, 2012). Common past and culture and similarities in family life 220 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Soap Opera Effect on Product Preferences in Terms of Country Image: A Case of Turkish TV Serials in Albanian Market between Albania and Turkey were cited as the reason why Turkish soap operas became popular by dethroning their previously popular Latin American counterparts (Tirana Times, 2012). Whether there has been a change in how products of Turkish origin are perceived in Albania in parallel to the image change attributable to the impact of Turkish soap operation was an object of curiosity, and this study aimed to measure the effect of Turkish soap operas on product preferences of Albanian consumers. Country-of-origin image The country of origin image (COI) consists of views and beliefs a person may hold about a specific country. Beliefs s/he may hold in his/her mind about that country may have been acquired from different sources and at different times. These beliefs may be real or unreal, but they still can affect that person’s attitudes and perceptions concerning the images of the products from that country. Before making a purchasing decision and during the phase of assessing the products, consumers tend to pay attention not only to their internal characteristics such as taste, design, performance and capacity to serve the purpose as well as to their external features such as price, packaging, brand and warranty (Bilkey & Nes 1982; Zain & Yasin, 1997; Agrawal & Kamakura, 1999). While characteristics such as price and brand signify the quality of a product (Rezvanil et al.), the country where that product is produced or the country which is represented by that product, i.e., the perceptions created in the minds of consumers by the country of origin image, may emerge as major hints and criteria for evaluating the products involved (Bilkey & Nes, 1982; Roth & Romeo, 1992; Ayyildiz & Cengiz, 2007; Zamantılı & Durmusoglu, 2008; Roth & Diamantopoulos, 2009; Lampert & Jaffe, 1998). This implies that the success of products in the international markets is determined not only by objective factors such as price and quality, but also subjective factors. It was Schooler (1965) who first used the term “country of origin” in the marketing literature (Pereira et al., 2005). Since then, a number of studies have been conducted on this topic (Lopez et al., 2011) and this concept has even become one of the most studied themes in the marketing literature (Agrawal & Kamakura 1999; Bloemer et al, 2009). Some literature studies (Al-Sulaiti & Baker, 1998) argued that the term country of origin should enter the literature as the fifth element of the marketing mix in addition to the product itself, its price, promotional activities and distribution channels (Dosen et al., 2007). In time, the term country of origin has come to be perceived as the country of origin image (Pereira et al, 2005). It was Nagashima Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 221 �Yüksel Köksal, Nihal İçöz Gjana (1970) who was first to make a widely accepted definition of the country of origin image. Nagashima (1970) defined the country of origin image as “the picture, the reputation, the stereotype that businessmen and consumers attach to products of a specific country.” For Nagashima (1970), this image is created by such variables as representative products, national characteristics, economic and political background, history and traditions (Nagashima 1970; Pereira et al, 2005; Rezvanil et al, 2012; Lin & Chen, 2006). Means of mass communication enjoy a guiding effect in the shaping of the image in the minds of consumers, but personal experiences of consumers and opinion leaders in the society, too, play a role in this process. Given all these aspects, the country of origin image may guide consumers emotionally and behaviorally in the purchase decision process. A number of studies suggest that the country of origin image can make a significant impact on the consumer preferences (Bilkey & Nes, 1982; Agrawal & Sikri, 1996; Kaynak & Kara, 2002; Ozretic Dosen et al., 2007) and the relation between the country of origin image and the purchasing behavior becomes more important in the ongoing global marketing conception. Given the fact that developed countries enjoy a more positive image compared to the developing countries, we see that products and brands of developed countries tend to be perceived as having higher quality and more reliable (Abedniya & Zaeim, 2011). Numerous studies confirmed such consumer tendencies (Zain & Yasin, 1997). Some studies found that the products whose country of origin is not specified tend to be perceived as more reliable than the products of underdeveloped countries (Acharya & Elliott, 2001: Kaynak et al., 2000). Although the past studies found that consumers tended to perceive domestic products more positively compared to foreign products (Watson & Wright, 1999), the tendency to prefer domestic products over imported products is higher in developed countries (Chryssochoidis et al., 2007). Moreover, some studies suggested that when a choice is to be made between two countries with and without cultural similarity with the own country, consumers tend to prefer the products of the country with the cultural similarity (Crawford & Lamb, 1981; Wang & Lamb, 1983; Watson & Wright, 1999). Likewise, TV serials tend to bring about cultural and social convergence among different societies (Castello, 2010). This lends credence to the argument that increased popularity of Turkish TV serials in Albania will boost Turkey’s country image and foster Albanians’ preferences for Turkish products, given the sheer amount of cultural values historically shared between two countries. In support of this argument, it was observed that the increased popularity of Turkish TV serials in 222 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Soap Opera Effect on Product Preferences in Terms of Country Image: A Case of Turkish TV Serials in Albanian Market the Middle East and Balkans led to an increase in Turkey’s trade and tourism revenues from the countries located in these regions that imported TV serials from Turkey (Balli et al., 2013). It is widely acknowledged that TV serials tend to increase overall consumption and are an effective advertisement tool (Pervan & Martin, 2001; Miller, 1995). The conceptual model and hypotheses developed in this framework can be listed as follows. Figure 1: Conceptual Model H1a Country Image H2 H1c Soap Opera Product Preference H1b Considering Country Origin of Product H3 H1a: There is a positive correlation between watching TV country and the image of that country. H1b: There is a positive correlation between watching TV country and noticing the country of origin of products. H1c: There is a positive correlation between watching TV country and preferring products of that country. H2: There is a positive correlation between having a good preferring products of that country. Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 serials of a specific serials of a specific serials of a specific country image and 223 �Yüksel Köksal, Nihal İçöz Gjana H3: There is a positive correlation between noticing the country of origin of products and preferring specific products. Research methodology Quantitative method was employed in this study. The data were obtained from three Albanian cities, namely Tirana (the capital), Durrës (a tourism city) and Kukës. Face-to-face interviewing was adopted as the method of collecting quantitative data. In designing the questionnaire, three local linguists were consulted about the comprehensibility of the questions. A sample run was made with 20 questionnaires to revise certain questions and make additions to and omissions from the final questionnaire. 74 people from Kukës, 112 people from Durrës and 227 people from Tirana participated in the study. The face-to-face interviewing of the participants produced no invalid questionnaire. The questions which were asked to participants during the interview and which sought to measure their attitudes and approaches to identify the impact of Turkish TV serials on consumers in the Albanian markets are given in Table 3 with mean values, standard deviation and factor values. The conceptual model and questions were designed by the researcher in the light of literature (Castello, 2010, Chryssochoidis et. al, 2007, Kaynak et.al, 2000, Kim & Long, 2012) data as the literature review produced no study that measured the direct effect of TV serials on product preferences. 14 variables in the conceptual model were measured using the 5-level Likert item (ranging between “I strongly disagree” and “I strongly agree”). Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to test the conceptual models and obtain scientific findings. Analysis and Results The demographic information relating to participants, including gender, age, marital status, education, occupation and income is given in Table 1. 224 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Soap Opera Effect on Product Preferences in Terms of Country Image: A Case of Turkish TV Serials in Albanian Market Table 1: Sample Characteristics Category Gender Freq. % Male Female 129 284 TOTAL Single Married one Marital Married child Status Married two Married three TOTAL 18 or younger 19-30 Age 31-40 Category 41-50 51 or more 413 172 76 54 70 41 TOTAL 413 45 174 112 60 22 413 Category € 200 or less € 201-350 € 351-700 € 7001-1,500 € 1,501 or more 100 TOTAL 41.6 Less than 18.4 high school 13.1 Education High school Bachelor 16.9 Post 9.9 Graduated 100 TOTAL 10.9 Own 42.1 Business 27.1 Occupation Student Worker 14.5 Private Sector 5.3 Public Officer Other 100 TOTAL 31.2 Monthly 68.8 Individual Income Level Freq. % 117 153 113 14 16 28.3 37.0 27.4 3.4 3.9 413 100 44 10.7 149 124 96 36.1 30.0 23.2 413 100 35 47 105 142 54 30 8.5 11.4 25.4 34.4 13.1 7.2 413 100 15.7% (65 people) of the participants said they do not watch Turkish TV serials regularly. The number and percentages of TV serials regularly watched by participants before and during the studied period are given as follows: Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 225 �Yüksel Köksal, Nihal İçöz Gjana Table 2: Numbers of Watching Turkish TV Serials Number of Percent Number of Number of TV Serials (%) People TV Serials 1 26.2 108 4 2 22.5 93 5 3 23.7 98 6 Percent 9.4 1.7 0.7 Number of People 39 7 3 Participants were asked whether they prefer Turkish products while shopping, and 69 % (285) gave affirmative answers. 50.8 % (210 people) of the participants noted that Turkish TV serials make a positive effect on their preferences for Turkish products. To better understand the role of TV serials in driving product preferences, the relation between the “number of Turkish TV serials regularly watched” and the “preference for Turkish products” was tested using the chi-square method and a significant relation was found (p>0.000). Thus, while the rate of those who never watch Turkish TV serials regularly was 43.1%, this rate was 68.5% for those who regularly watch at least one TV serial, 78.6% for those who regularly watch three TV serials and 85.7% for those who regularly watch five TV serials and 100% for those who regularly watch six serials. The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM) were measured using four factors and 19 variables. For the reliability level of variables, Cronbach’s alpha was measured as 0.848. This rate is considered as sufficient and appropriate for the reliability of findings obtained (Kalaycı, 2010). Also the KMO measure of sampling adequacy has been measured as 0.875 and Approx. Chi-Square; 3907.102, df; 171, Sig; 0.000. Variables and mean values and factor loads are given in Table 3. Table 3: Factor Loads No Factors and Sub- Items S1 Soap Opera I often follow the Turkish serials S2 I like watching Turkish serials 3.63 .871 S3 I intend to follow also other Turkish serials in the future Turkish TV serials are among the most favourite programs for me 3.41 .857 3.27 .815 S4 226 Mean Factors Loads Values Factor Variance: 31.64% 3.47 .880 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Soap Opera Effect on Product Preferences in Terms of Country Image: A Case of Turkish TV Serials in Albanian Market S5 I like all Turkish serials S6 When Turkish serials are broadcasted I don’t 2.79 .761 have any plan to do Considering Country Origin of Product Factor Variance: 6.88% I do not prefer products the countries I do not 2.96 .797 like The products of some countries not prefer 3.13 .775 consciously I prefer products according to the origin of the 3.41 .517 country Country of origin gives me ideas about products 3.73 .500 O1 O2 O3 O4 I1 I2 I3 I4 I5 P1 P2 P3 P4 3.17 .781 Country Image Factor Variance: 7.40% I believe that the products of developed countries 3.87 .804 are more quality I always prefer products of developed countries 3.47 .712 I mostly prefer products of economically 3.66 .702 developed countries I prefer products according to price and quality 3.97 .507 not to origin of the country Country of origin of the product should be 3.55 .454 respected Product Preference Factor Variance: 16.95% After I followed the Turkish serials my ideas have 2.91 .774 changed positively for Turkish products I always prefer Turkish products in shopping 2.65 .770 I have started preferring Turkish products after watching Turkish TV serials Before the Turkish serials I have not preferred Turkish products so much Total Variance Explained 2.76 .728 2.59 .613 62.87% The total variance of 62.87%, obtained via the exploratory factor analysis (EFA), is regarded as a significant rate in terms of representativeness of the general opinions and this rate should be at least 50% for acceptability of the analysis (Meyers et al., 2006). Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 227 �Yüksel Köksal, Nihal İçöz Gjana The relationship between factors and variables was analyzed using the structural equation modelling (SEM). Initially, we couldn’t reach to the model reference values of Goodness of Fit with these EFA variables. So the model was refined by eliminating three items (S5, I1 and I3) that have largest error variances. After removing three items, the test of final measurement model showed a good fit as shown Figure 1. Figure 1: Conceptual Model H1a = .118 Soap Opera H1b = .029 Country Image H1c= .700 Considering Country Origin of Product H2 = .293 Product Preference H3 = -.185 The findings that were obtained in the SEM analysis and that indicated the Goodness of Fit results of the analysis are given in Table 4 while the findings showing the hypothesis results were given in Table 5. Table 4: Goodness of Fit Indication Chi-Square 1/Degrees of Freedom (x2/df) 228 Tested model 3.04 Reference values 0-5 interval Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Soap Opera Effect on Product Preferences in Terms of Country Image: A Case of Turkish TV Serials in Albanian Market Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) .915 ≥.90 Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) .884 ≥.90 Comparative Fit Index (CFI) .931 ≥.90 Tucker Lewis Index (known as NNFI) (TLI) .916 ≥.95 Incremental Fit Index (IFI) .931 ≥.90 Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) .07 < .08 Source: Meyers et al, 2006; Hooper et al, 2008; Ayyıldız and Cengiz, 2006. Table 5: SEM Hypotheses Hypotheses H1a Soap Opera H1b Soap Opera H2 Product H1c Soap Opera H2 Country Image (CI) St. p Results β Errors values .053 .118 .026** S Considering COO of .028 .029 .304 NS Product Preference .059 .700 .001*** S .094 .293 .002*** S Country Image (CI) Product Preference H3 Considering COO of Product Product .112 -.185 .098* Preference *** p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.10, S: Supported, NS: Not Supported. S The findings obtained via the structural equation modeling indicate that people who watch TV serials of a specific country tend to prefer the products of that country. The most strongly supported hypotheses are the power of TV serials to influence product preferences of consumers and the effect of the country image in product preferences. Also, the hypothesis that TV serials tend to boost the image of the country where they are produced was found acceptable with a 5-percent margin of error. In this context, the increase in Turkey's exports to the countries where Turkish TV serials are followed (Balli et al., 2013) signifies a positive indication of this hypothesis in practice. Likewise, the hypothesis that the country of origin is respected in product preferences was another approach which was found acceptable with a 10-percent margin of error. No correlation was found between watching the Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 229 �Yüksel Köksal, Nihal İçöz Gjana TV serials of a specific country and the checking the country of origin of products in shopping, and the hypothesis was rejected. Discussion and conclusions The basic purpose of this study is to examine whether there is correlation between watching TV serials of a specific country and preferring to buy products of that country and find out the potential of TV serials for influencing consumer preferences. The findings of the study indicate that many Albanian consumers have developed positive attitudes toward Turkish products after watching Turkish TV serials. Even 50.8% of the participants said Turkish TV serials are the main factor influencing their decision to buy Turkish products. In addition to other benefits, TV serials have created a new marketing sphere called destination marketing with which the places where TV serials take place are promoted as touristic locations or holiday resorts to be visited by the audience (Balli et al., 2013; Kim & Long 2012; Busby & Klug 2001; O’Connor et al., 2010). The findings obtained using the exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling as well as the hypotheses results indicate that TV serials play a major role in shaping consumer preferences directly or indirectly. The hypothesis that sports a direct correlation between watching TV serials of a specific country and preferring products of that country (H1c) was accepted most strongly (Table 5, p<0.01). The hypothesis that was accepted with the second highest values is H2 that shows the effect of the country image on the product preferences (p<0.01). The finding that TV serials affect product preferences also indirectly is found at the hypothesis H1a, which is accepted in the light of the findings (p<0.05). This is because the regularly watched TV serials of a country tend to have a positive effect on that country's image and they enhance the country image (Cho et al., 2007). Given the fact that H2, which indicates the role of the country image in the product preferences, is also supported, it is clear that TV serials have a direct or indirect effect on consumers' preferring the products of the country where those serials are produced. The hypothesis, H3, which signifies the impact of the image of the country of origin in product preferences, and which was extensively studied previously (Bilkey and Nes, 1982; Roth and Romeo, 1992; Lampert and Jaffe, 1998; Roth & Diamantopoulos, 2009) was verified in this study as well (p<0.10). However, as no correlation was found between watching the TV serials of a specific country and the 230 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Soap Opera Effect on Product Preferences in Terms of Country Image: A Case of Turkish TV Serials in Albanian Market checking the country of origin of the products preferred and the hypothesis H1b was rejected. To sum it up in the light of the foregoing discussion, the rate with which the TV serials of a specific country are watched is effective in directly or indirectly driving the popularity of the products of that country. Of course, other marketing components, too, should be effectively employed in order to increase the popularity of products of a country. But it is clear that when other marketing components are well-designed, popular TV serials play a critical role in boosting the popularity of the products of the country where those serials are produced as well as enhancing the image of that country. Implications for managers That TV serials can play a strong role in facilitating the market penetration of the products of the countries where they are produced has important implications for firms and managers. Given the fact that the places featured in TV serials emerge as potential tourism destinations (Kim & Long, 2012), the products used or consumed in these serials are also advertised. Product placement has today become a widely used advertisement tool (Pervan & Martin, 2002). Thus, product placements in the serials and sponsor advertisements run before and after the serials are recognized as very effective way for ensuring product penetration in the countries to which these serials are exported. Brand managers may choose to focus more on the markets in the countries where the TV serials which feature advertisements and placements of their products are broadcast, and by doing so, they can increase their market share and launch branding efforts in those markets. Likewise, it is generally accepted that women are more resolved and eager to regularly watch TV serials (Stern et al., 2005: Thompson et al., 2000). Thus, the brand managers who sell products specifically geared for women may select TV serials as the media where their products are advertised. Limitations and future research This study focused on a topic which has not been intensively studied, but was restricted to a sample group of 413 people due to constraints imposed by lack of resources and time. Still the study's sample size is above 384 people, which is defined as the number for 5-percent margin of error (Balcı, 2010) and its sample size is Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 231 �Yüksel Köksal, Nihal İçöz Gjana regarded as 'good' in terms of having 300 subjects and over for factor analysis (Meyers et al., 2006). That the study was conducted solely with Albanians due to lack of resources and costs can be considered as another restriction for the study. This study focused on the role of TV serials in product preferences, but future studies may choose to examine the product placement approaches by the firms which operate, or plan to operate, in international markets or their tendencies for sponsoring TV serials which have the potential for being exported, with a view to finding out the place and role of TV serials in marketing. 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Volume 5 Number 1 Spring 2015 237 �Yüksel Köksal, Nihal İçöz Gjana Türbedar Erhan, “How is Turkish foreign policy perceived in the Balkans?”, Today’s Zaman, April 30, 2012, http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById .action?newsId=279073. 238 Journal of Economic and Social Studies � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2701 Title A name given to the resource Soap Opera Effect on Product Preferences in Terms of Country Image: A Case of Turkish TV Serials in Albanian Market Author Author Köksal, Yüksel Gjana, Nihal İçöz Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: TV serials can be leveraged as an effective mass communication means that is capable of sneaking into people’s lives, and altering their perceptions, habits and preferences. Today globalization has come to facilitate the way in which consumers are exposed to a myriad of foreign products, and country of origin and image emerge as major hints in assessing these products. Foreign TV programs that become popular in a country are known to contribute to the country of origin image of products involved. This study aims to study the way TV viewers in Albania, where Turkish soap operas are popular, perceive products of Turkish origin and whether Turkish TV programs have any effect on the purchasing decisions of Albanians. To this end, the data set of the study was compiled through one-to-one interviews with 413 participants in three Albanian cities (Tirana, Durrës and Kukës). Quantitative data were analyzed using factor analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) methods while qualitative data were obtained using the in-depth interviews with the people from the field who hold opinions about the matter at hand. The study produced positive findings that imply that TV serials influence product preferences of consumers. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015-01-15 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed HC Economic History and Conditions,HM Sociology