301 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d7fd76cec6ac67d17413ae32e1072311.docx c613ee2829dd81300fe6dc2853ff2970 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/70aaae2b476f144e8f513d032aa5bc0a.pdf 4c1da0519a1402bc71ad8b368fd30914 PDF Text Text The Relationship between Corporate Governance Performance and Stock Return Bener Güngör Ataturk University Turkey bgungor@atauni.edu.tr Abdulkadir Kaya Ataturk University Turkey akadirkaya@atauni.edu.tr Tuğba Eyceyurt Batir Ataturk University Turkey t.eyceyurt@hotmail.com Ünal Gülhan Ataturk University Turkey unalhan@atauni.edu.tr Abstract: The effect of the application of corporate governance principles by companies on shareholders have been an attractive topic in finance literature. There are several studies about this topic that have couple of different conclusions. The aim of this study is to determine if the prices of stock exchange securities increase or decrease after attending to corporate governance index. Twelve companies, members of CGI whose stocks are traded in ISE are considered. By this aim it has been done co-integration test between Istanbul Stock Exchange CGI and Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index. It is found a relationship between two variables in the long term. Then we considered 12 companies which have CGI rating between the year 2007-2013 and we explored if they have abnormal return 5 days before and after CGI rating is declared. Results of the analysis show that most of the companies have abnormal returns before and after 5 days from declaration date. So, it is concluded that shareholder prices CGI ratings in addition to other information about corporations. Keywords: Corporate governance, corporate governance index, Stock return, abnormal return. 118 �118 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2578 Title A name given to the resource The Relationship between Corporate Governance Performance and Stock Return Author Author GUNGOR, Bener KAYA, Abdulkadir BATIR, Tugba Eyceyurt Abstract A summary of the resource. The effect of the application of corporate governance principles by companies on shareholders have been an attractive topic in finance literature. There are several studies about this topic that have couple of different conclusions. The aim of this study is to determine if the prices of stock exchange securities increase or decrease after attending to corporate governance index. Twelve companies, members of CGI whose stocks are traded in ISE are considered. By this aim it has been done co-integration test between Istanbul Stock Exchange CGI and Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index. It is found a relationship between two variables in the long term. Then we considered 12 companies which have CGI rating between the year 2007-2013 and we explored if they have abnormal return 5 days before and after CGI rating is declared. Results of the analysis show that most of the companies have abnormal returns before and after 5 days from declaration date. So, it is concluded that shareholder prices CGI ratings in addition to other information about corporations. Keywords: Corporate governance, corporate governance index, Stock return, abnormal return.   Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-04 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f97c209b06e1325354a900be5572d299.pdf 2ba8bdbe76cb8a051a21eaa398301924 PDF Text Text Journal of Education and Humanities Volume 3 (1), pp. 53-66, Summer 2020 Professional paper ISSN 2566-4638 © International Burch University https://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JEH2020315 The Relationship Between Covid-19, Online Learning and Intercultural Education Amila Dautbašić Jasna Saračević International Burch University International Burch University amila.dautbasic@stu.ibu.edu.ba jasna.saracevic@live.com Abstract: This paper aims to describe and analyse various effects that COVID-19 pandemic might have on online learning and multicultural education. The following questions will be investigated: Has COVID-19 pandemic made an impact on the development on multicultural education during online classes?; How have the teachers contributed to enhance online multicultural education?; and What are the positive effects of COVID-19 pandemic on multicultural online education? Multicultural online learning received unfavourable criticism and was characterized with prejudice primarily due to stereotypes that have been present from the very beginning of online education. The paper proposes constructive ways of online collaboration, various strategies applied by both teachers and students, and applicable activities and materials provided for students in order to sustain a multicultural online learning environment. Findings demonstrate that cultural diversity is beneficial for learners and that their involvement in online activities as well as their overall achievements and grades improved due to efficiently organized online lessons. Further, other factors like motivation, communication, anxiety, and confidence all proved to have been positively impacted by crosscultural learning, where students themselves contributed to learning and understanding of cultural knowledge. A multicultural community was formed during online classes and students generated their own community of learning following the guidance from their teacher. Ethnicity and cultural backgrounds of students only encouraged them to learn from their peers and merged them into a united multicultural environment. Keywords: COVID-19, multicultural education, online classes Article History Submitted: 15 April 2020 Accepted: 29 June 2020 �Journal of Education and Humanities Volume 3, Issue 1, Summer 2020 1. INTRODUCTION The aim of this paper is to present the status of the multicultural education in the times of pandemic, to prove how well-developed multicultural classrooms are, and to indicate that students face no difficulties in communication through online platforms. Online lectures are held without any difficulties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and it was of great importance to establish good communication with students from diverse cultures and ensure a comfortable online learning experience. It was an unfamiliar environment to students, however, using the online platforms and websites which are all in a foreign language has further proved the importance of having mixed classrooms and signified comprehensive benefits of such organized classes. Multiculturalism represents a rather broad topic, but the most important component of a term is that it enlightens its participants; it helps students meet other cultures and accept everyone as they are. Online platforms used during the pandemic have shown that everyone can be connected and multiculturalism can exist even when students are not present in the same room. The importance of multicultural education has been continually emphasized, however, in the wake of predicaments like the current one caused by COVID-19 pandemic, the significance of multicultural education resurfaced and acknowledged an extensive impact of COVID-19 on the development on multicultural communication in online classes. Due to the overall contemporary social trends, the need for pedagogical reflection on the relationship between multiculturalism and education, that is, upbringing and education in a multicultural society, is of extreme importance in today's society. Hence, it is evident that there is an increasing number of authors who are tackling this issue. The phenomenon of multicultural education is gaining importance, referring not only to some distant countries, but also to closer geographical and ethnic areas, especially where and when social contradictions are resolved by conflicts and wars between nations. Analogously, the crisis of multicultural education can be at the same time a component of both cause and effect of social conflicts. Additionally, regardless of the sign in the evaluation and approach of observing the relationship between multiculturalism and education, it is certain that this phenomenon is high on the agenda of many scientific, primarily social, humanistic, cultural, sociological, and pedagogical disciplines (Ivanović, 2009). Especially significant to note is that multiculturalism is important for eliminating discrimination, which exists in classrooms on a different level, such as discrimination based on the model of assimilation, aimed at the full inclusion of individual members of minorities in the society - by abandoning their mother tongue, traditional norms and other specific cultural characteristics. The concept of assimilation is based on the belief that by complete absorption into the society, the basis for ethnic conflict ceases to exist. In such a social environment, the effort 54 �The Relationship Between Covid-19, Online Learning and Intercultural Education Amila Dautbašić & Jasna Saračević to preserve the cultural norms of minority groups implies rejection by the majority culture, perceiving it as a threat (Baron & Byrne, 1997; Van Oudenhoven et al., 1998). Many previous studies have been conducted on the topic of multicultural online learning and its affects as well as empirical studies on various online courses from different academic fields (Ke & Kwak, 2013). It is vital that studies on this topic are based on the learning environments and how student’s cultural background and ethnicity affect their online learning overall. Thus, the questions addressed in this study are: Has COVID-19 pandemic made an impact on the development on multicultural education during online classes? How have the teachers contributed to enhance online multicultural education? What are the positive effects of COVID-19 pandemic on multicultural online education? Positive effects during online lessons include interaction among students during discussions, willingness to discuss various topics and provision of responses to ideas from their peers through postings and comments, and ultimately, access to a large variety of readings and materials on LMS encouraged participation in online activities (Learning Management Systems and Course Management Systems). In comparison with traditional classroom settings, aside from the increased participation in class and lowered anxiety levels, students also interacted with each other and teachers by e-mail. 2. MULTICULTURAL EDUCATION WORLDWIDE As noted in a plethora of previously conducted studies, multicultural education plays a very important role in the development of many educational systems worldwide. According to Han Erbas (2019), multicultural education in Turkey was among its best improvements introduced there and it contributed to the connection and combination of different cultures, while helping students to communicate and create interactive discussions with people of different backgrounds. Research has showed that students were not aware of the importance of multicultural education so far, and there was a need for raising their awareness on different cultures and importance of coexistence, but of course, some pedagogical and organisational processes needed to be established, in order to create the proper environment to teach about and in people of different cultures (Salavatova, 2019). Breshkovskaya and Ezhkova (2020) agree with Salavatova on the previously mentioned insight, while explaining the dialogue approaches in multicultural education, which is needed in order to establish good communicative and interaction activities in a multicultural classroom, it is of great importance to create good educational environment and have certain problems carried out that might occur in multicultural education, as it depends on whether the students are ready to interact with people of another culture. Zamurueva (2019) argues that multicultural education certainly is a 55 �Journal of Education and Humanities Volume 3, Issue 1, Summer 2020 concept which needs to create a mixture of various approaches to fight the problems concerning racism and discrimination. When speaking of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bećirević, Brdarević-Čeljo, and Zavrl (2019) agreed that in education on territory of BiH, a certain need for the development of multicultural education is evident. The afore-mentioned authors proved that it is crucial to introduce the importance of introducing multicultural education in educational systems. According to Bećirević (2012), the role of multiculturalism is to enhance diversity and promote good interpersonal activities among people of different cultures. Podojak and Bećirević (2018) proved that the culture of people who live out of their culture changes as they get acclimatized to the new culture they live in, and as such it is of great importance for everyone to learn how to embrace other cultures, and that is done best in multicultural classrooms. Nowadays people face many difficulties and many types of influences which evolve form their lives and education. It is of great importance that students study and are acquainted with the benefits of multicultural classrooms, from broadening student’s horizons about other cultures, but also making teachers’ professional lives a lot easier (Bećirović & Bešlija, 2018). Online learning has been implemented in education since the mid-1990s and has proven to be immensely successful and versatile for students of various ages and cultures. These online classes began at universities and were expected to cause issues, especially sociocultural issues. There are different opinions of whether multicultural online classes are beneficial and whether they can be compared to face-to-face learning. As claimed by Terenzini et al. (2001) and Gurin et al. (2002), in standard face-to-face classes not only was student learning promoted, but also ethnic identity, as well as growth and understanding of various racial groups. A major point that needs to be emphasized is that a lot of hard work and time go into the planning of multicultural online classes. However, during the pandemic, a mutual decision by the state was made for education to continue uninterrupted and that is how a multicultural online community began to form. Online courses saved students as well as teachers a lot of time, by not having to hold make up classes. The goals of multicultural education are meta-cultural with the ultimate goal of liberating and empowering students. By considering the issues and problems of different races and cultural groups, students will be emboldened to understand themselves and the diversity of others and thus enable them to gain insight into different interpretations of the world that various individuals have. It is believed that this way students are enabled to understand broader social problems, which is the basis for inclusion in a society characterized by a multitude of value-ideological orientations (Washburn, 1995). The learning and teaching environment can be quite isolating which makes it more challenging for teachers to further their lessons by implementing different methods. In online education, success rates based on cultural diversity mostly depend on how the teachers acknowledge students and their cultures and how they connect and implement them into their teaching materials. The teacher’s competency plays a major role and possesses great responsibility to 56 �The Relationship Between Covid-19, Online Learning and Intercultural Education Amila Dautbašić & Jasna Saračević include various reading materials and prepare various activities complemented by additional handouts so that students from diverse backgrounds are presented with a variety of resources (Bećirović, Delić & Brdarević-Čeljo, 2019; Bećirović, & Brdarević-Čeljo, 2018). During the period of COVID-19 pandemic, teachers and their preparation patterns for online classes were much easier because they have been well informed about cultural backgrounds of their students in advance, since they have been teaching the same students for years. Equally important to highlight is the fact that the multiculturalism in online classes was promoted through different learning materials which helped students of diverse cultures to be involved in discussions and online debates, where they are provided with opportunities to relate to their past experiences and culture. According to Wahyuni and Bayu (2020), multicultural education during the refugee crisis might cause some difficulties due to the sociocultural diversity. Some things that might seem unimportant to some, are considered very problematic to others; most of the issues being the ones dealing with their homecountries, ethnicities, or even social status. All of these factors might add up to creating a huge gap in communication between students. In order to overcome these issues, promotion of multicultural education by default promotes diversity and variety of different social and ethnical groups which can prompt individuals to overcome prejudice towards different groups of people, in this case refugees. Saha (2019) claims that Australian education system, contributed to Australia’s changing immigration and immigration policy due to the development of multicultural education. He claims that an assimilation policy promoted a multiculturalism policy in the time period between 1973 and 1979, and helped change the lives of immigrants coming from different cultural backgrounds, and it stayed until today. In his paper, Saha also claims that while taking into consideration backgrounds of all European children, Asian migrants, many other refugees and indigenous Australians, their educational profiles require different sociological variables. Today, educational differences between indigenous Australians and migrants are almost completely overcome. 3. MULTICULTURAL EDUCATION AND MEDIA The work within international and multicultural conditions is increasing and there is an emphasized need to learn foreign languages (Dubravac & Skopljak, 2020; Dubravac, Brdarević-Čeljo & Bećirović, 2018; Skopljak & Dubravac, 2019), as well as the need for multilingual and multicultural courses (Yaman & Bećirović, 2016) at universities. Learning foreign languages can enhance an individual's potential and can also be useful in their professional career (Kyppo, Natri, 2016). The sociocultural component of foreign language learning is the most important part of this type of education in the context of multicultural experience. It involves introducing the individual to the cultural traditions of the 57 �Journal of Education and Humanities Volume 3, Issue 1, Summer 2020 community from which the foreign language comes but also enables the individual to present their own culture using a certain foreign language and thus achieve communication between the two cultures. Through learning foreign languages, dialogue between different cultures is enabled, reducing the possibilities of misunderstandings. Developing a multilingual and multicultural personality is one of the main aspects of multicultural education. It is believed that an individual with a multilingual and multicultural personality possesses an advanced linguistic consciousness but also a developed multicultural consciousness. An individual with a developed multicultural consciousness recognizes the integrity of human civilization and accepts the differences that exist between different cultures (Khairutdinova, Lebedeva, 2016). 4. BACKGROUND ON MULTICULTURAL EDUCATION This paper deals with how beneficial online classes are and how multicultural education is emphasized through these platforms. Online instruction needs to be properly designed, as stated by Banks (2004) and students need to be exposed to different voices and also exposed to online discussions on various topics in which they have many opportunities to lead cross-cultural dialogues. This has proven to be very effective in online classes, especially when different cultural backgrounds are mixed and where students learn from one another and assist one another in learning. The teacher’s role in multicultural classrooms is to motivate the students no matter what race, gender, or ethnicity they are, which is also the case in online classes. As stated by Le Roux (2001), the influence and attitudes of teachers determine the student’s expectations and outcomes. At the time of COVID-19 pandemic the teachers placed all their energy and skills into teaching diverse students online, their education program being very beneficial, proving to have communicated with students of different cultures on all given topics. Most students approached online classes with a positive and an open mind, trusting their teachers and allowing the cross-cultural experience and learning to develop. Thus, just as in a traditional classroom, the teacher in online classes must be mindful of cultural sensitivity whilst engaging in the crucial process of inspecting prejudices as well as personal biases and realizations that influence the students learning experiences. Students are also the ones who contribute to the online classes with their own resources that amplify their learning experience. Since communication is the main asset in online classes, the teacher is the one who leads the lessons and encourages all the students to speak and get involved in discussions. Cultural background and even social network diversity are the factors that affected the involvement of some students with their colleagues from different countries (Mittelmeier, Héliot, Rienties, & Whitelock, 2016). Current multicultural situation in Germany has been changing over time, and research conducted by Josefova (2016) proved that other countries such as 58 �The Relationship Between Covid-19, Online Learning and Intercultural Education Amila Dautbašić & Jasna Saračević Czech Republic are influenced a lot by migrations. Therefore, she also claims that multicultural education plays significant role in development of eLearning courses, and providing opportunities for creating intercultural dialogues. She agrees that the importance of intercultural expansion is a common topic and that more countries and nations are becoming aware of the cultural sensitivity. 5. STUDENT INTERACTION IN ONLINE CLASSES The inclusion of online cultures helps the learning process for students as they relate more to certain topics and want to participate in discussions for which they are familiar with. That in itself leads to a more successful and valuable learning that can be seen at the time of the pandemic. Students willingly wish to participate and enjoy discussions (Rizvić & Bećirović, 2017) because they express their divergent social views and their cultural background flourishes as well, making them feel confident and empowered. This type of multicultural online education which allows interaction between teachers and students as well as students and students, leads to a higher appreciation of cultural diversity among the students and indicates cultural inclusion in the online classes. Students are not only benefitting on an educational level but also their cultural experiences are broadening. One of perhaps the most important factors influencing the effectiveness of online classes is the physical distance between students and professors. If students, apart from virtual cooperation, are not introduced to at least a small number of face-to-face meetings, during which they would establish a common framework of knowledge and experience on the cognitive level, and establish mutual relations of support and understanding on the affective level, online collaboration might become very slow, complicated and crowded. In addition, the absence of a non-verbal component in virtual collaboration can slow down or completely prevent the effective exchange of ideas, which in turn can be resolved by face-to-face meetings in situations where that is possible (Walsh & Maloney, 2007). 6. TEACHERS’ ROLE IN ONLINE TEACHING When teachers provide students with activities they need to be strategically conducted and planned in order to be constructive and favorable, whether they are problem-based activities, group-based discussions or student-based content, they need to be appropriate for the students’ needs and their backgrounds. Furthermore, teachers have also been observed to have incorporated various learning activities and materials in order to help culturally diverse students achieve better results. As stated by Boone, Safrit and Jones (2002), students have individual learning strategies and needs when it comes to learning, as well as diverse interest’s communication styles, values and learning outcomes. 59 �Journal of Education and Humanities Volume 3, Issue 1, Summer 2020 All of these factors must be taken into consideration and aligned in order to compose an effective online curriculum, beneficial for all students. During the time of COVID-19 pandemic and online classes, teachers have mostly been focused on motivating students, by using videos, visual tools, blogs, assigning projects, and encouraging group work and pair work; a variety of options to boost student’s motivation. Students needed extra motivation because they were not used to online classes at first, many of them have never had the opportunity to experience an online class prior to the pandemic. Through group work or pair work the students had a chance to be acquainted with each other’s backgrounds better, the activities proved to be very beneficial and allowed students to share ideas and get feedback from teachers. Communication between the teachers and students in online classes was encouraged immensely, which lead to the creation of diverse groups, and it is of great importance for teacher to introduce and incorporate more multicultural content. These multicultural online classes enhance education as well as cultural experiences for the students. Halverson and Tirmizi (2008, p. 12), claimed that students of diverse cultures bring positive aspects to online classes and also positively influences their academic success. On the other hand, Gay (2010) and Ladson-Billings (2009), argue that teachers should include as much diverse materials and use various techniques as possible to enhance the students learning outcomes. Butorac and Mraović (2013) claim that differentiation and segregation of members of a minority can generate many different types of discrimination that have shown devastating effects on human rights and freedoms. Therefore, multicultural education becomes a central element of social policy at the national and transnational level. This is why they believe how increased professional education in the field of recognizing, combating, and sanctioning discriminatory treatment is also a form of support for victims of discrimination. Potential victims of discrimination, and in particular the most vulnerable groups, must be made aware of the available protection instruments available, and the protection system must be effective and without harmful consequences for the victim. According to Marjanovic at al. (2013) a system such as an online platforms allow organizations to save their employees, the time they would spend in classroom training by accessing the system at a time and place that suits their schedules. In order for the e-learning platform to be used effectively in corporate education, it is necessary to measure learning outcomes in a systematic way. Also, various cultural resources and perspectives can be integrated into the curriculum in order to stimulate cross-cultural activities that enhance multiculturalism in online classes (Pattanpichet, 2011). Dautbasic and Saracevic (2019) agree that choosing proper learning methods and techniques will improve students’ skills and achievements. 60 �The Relationship Between Covid-19, Online Learning and Intercultural Education Amila Dautbašić & Jasna Saračević 7. IMPORTANCE OF A LEARNING ENVIRONMENT Findings of several studies disclosed that teachers were not familiar with cultural diversity in their curriculums and of the importance of including those curriculums in the classes (Anakwe & Christensen, 1999; Thompson & Ku, 2005). Luckily that was not the case with online classes during the pandemic, where the teachers were well informed and well prepared to include cultural diversity in any sphere of their online teaching. Communicative activities in which students build relationships with their peers are crucial for students’ academic success, therefore their intercultural competencies need to be taken into consideration to make communication more beneficial. Students of diverse cultures need to be able to read and understand the reading materials provided, since that is one of the main steps in increasing their confidence and motivation for learning (Hofstede & Hofstede, 2005). Studies by Adeoye and Wentling, (2007); Goodfellow and Hewling (2005); Mushtaha and Troyer, (2007), claim that online classes promote cross-cultural learning where students themselves contribute to the learning and cultural knowledge understanding. Teachers must consider the identities of students and not just their ethnic backgrounds in order to provide the best learning strategies for online multicultural classes Ladson-Billings (2014). He goes on by saying thsee strategies should help the student intellectually, their skills and most importantly their attitudes towards multicultural learning (Ladson-Billings, 1994, p. 16-17). The achievements of students in class are based completely on how skilful the teacher is (Ladson-Billings,2006).Since students need to be aware of their cultures and the importance of their backgrounds (Ladson-Billings, 2006, p. 36), their consciousness will develop and their beliefs will broaden, making them self-aware of the multicultural community they live in. That way they will bring that awareness to class and be willing to share it with others, creating a healthy multicultural learning community. Since students in Bosnia and Herzegovina are mostly aware of their cultures, because it is something that is taught in schools from a very early age, students had no difficulties engaging in a multicultural online class during the COVID-19 pandemic. The environment of a classroom, in this case online classe, is of great importance for the students, therefore their learning environment must feel trusting and safe so that the students will feel comfortable and motivated to learn and participate. According to Kourova & Modianos (2013), the teacher’s main obligation in a multicultural class is to create a learning environment which will empower the students to learn more about their peer’s cultures. Also the findings of Zhang, Briggs, and Nunamaker (2006), show that teachers should include as many visuals like videos, and various images to enrich multicultural learning but also to keep the classes interesting. Students like to be involved in learning (Brdarević-Čeljo & Asotić, 2017; Sinanović & Bećirović 2016), they like the feeling of their contribution to the procedure of learning and that is the reason why their needs and diverse cultural backgrounds must be carefully investigated by the teachers. Students enjoy 61 �Journal of Education and Humanities Volume 3, Issue 1, Summer 2020 discussing their cultural differences and experiences and sharing their thoughts with other students, that is why different cultures collide together and make the online learning even more meaningful. There are many stereotypes claiming that students cannot learn online, that media only distracts them and the students are not interested and not motivated to learn during online classes. That is not the case at all, proven now during the COVID-19 pandemic that online multicultural education is running smoothly, and with the right preparation it is on the same success level as in traditional face-to-face classes. 8. IMPORTANCE OF APPROPRIATE LITERATURE USED IN ONLINE CLASSES The books utilized by teachers need to be appropriate and useful as well as diverse, so that all the students can locate the content that is relatable and not exclusive. Also, teachers make lesson plans just as they would normally do for traditional classes; they construct their plans according to the student’s needs, using various teaching strategies. The results of the students exceeded many expectations especially because they only had online classes, their achievements had not lowered, they remained at the same level or they improved. That was viewed with much scepticism before the online classes began; people were sceptic about how the students would adjust to the online classes and whether multicultural education would even be possible. Kim and Bonk (2002); Zhao and McDougall, (2008), encourage teachers to create diverse online classes as much as possible, the more diverse the better and more beneficial they will be. Some of the issues teachers face in online classes is linked to the situations in which they do not provide enough diverse reading materials, or if teachers fail to create a discussion among students as well as if students lack motivation. These issues can all lead to having negative results when it comes to online learning, but that has not been the case with online classes during the COVID-19 pandemic, where the teachers were very aware of their duties and very successfully engaged students in multicultural classes. 9. CONCLUSION The results of various findings proved that COVID-19 pandemic had made an impact on the development of multicultural education in online classes, benefiting the students and requiring a lot of preparation and work from the teachers. During the classes the students shared ideas and learned of different cultures, they participated in online discussions and they built a multicultural online community. The online environment motivated them to collaborate with their peers, working in groups or pairs, which is one of the most effective ways of promoting multicultural education in online classes. The curriculums and teachers lesson plans play a major role in the effective online classes, literature 62 �The Relationship Between Covid-19, Online Learning and Intercultural Education Amila Dautbašić & Jasna Saračević and materials used and student’s backgrounds evaluated in order to develop multicultural classes which will engage and benefit the students. That is how have the teachers have contributed to enhance online multicultural education during COVID-19 pandemic, they helped the students adapt to the online classes and multiculturalism as quickly as they could, by using appropriate strategies of planning the classes. Multicultural education is advanced in terms of approach to education transformation that has been criticized and corrected by following the discriminatory curricula, as well as the bad practices and policies in education. It is based on ideal social justice and equality and is dedicated to help all students become equal citizens and become culturally aware of diversities around them. Thus, multicultural education is recognized as a type of education that helps remove early injustices and connect racial ties (Ford, 2014) The positive effects of COVID-19 pandemic on multicultural online education are that students learned from their peers, they got to bond over their cultures and ethnic backgrounds more than they had in traditional face-to-face classes. A multicultural community was formed during the online classes which motivated the students and encouraged teachers for further online classes. In a community such as online classes, students have a major part when it comes to building interaction and communication amongst themselves; they build their community of learning with the guidance of the teacher (Garrison, 1997). The achievements of the students during COVID-19 pandemic were impressive, as many had doubts of how the students will adapt to online learning, the results showed few setbacks and many benefits. As Gunawardena and Zittle (1997, p. 10) claimed that social presence of the teacher is the most important, a real person is perceived differently in communication that a voice or video presence in the online classes. That proved to be wrong, communication was just as successful online through microphones and video chats, as it had been in face-to-face classes. The students themselves promoted multicultural learning, wanting as much cultural diversity to be included in the classes, through materials such as books, videos, presentations and so on, prepared by the teachers. Ladson-Billings (2009) believed that the more teachers get introduced to their students ethnicity and cultural backgrounds, the better and more efficient the learning experiences will be. 63 �Journal of Education and Humanities Volume 3, Issue 1, Summer 2020 REFERENCES Adeoye, B., & Wentling, R. M. (2007). The relationship between national culture and the usability of an e-learning system. International Journal on E-learning, 6(1), 119-146. Baron, R. A., & Byrne, D. (1997). Social psychology (8th ed.). Boston: Allyn & Bacon. Bećirović, S. (2012). The role of intercultural education in fostering cross-cultural understanding. Epiphany Journal of Transdisciplinary Studies, 5(1), 138-156. doi: 10.21533/epiphany.v5i1.49 Bećirović, S., & Bešlija, D. (2018). 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Multicultural education: concept, goals and objectives. education and science without limits: Fundamental and Applied Researches Актуальные Аспекты Фундаментальных и Прикладных Исследований, (10), 256– 257. 66 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Title A name given to the resource The Relationship Between Covid-19, Online Learning and Intercultural Education https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ccd0271c7f99b7d16291a6deed893635.pdf 2e4de342d3e35cfba07667cd97d5db0d PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo The Relationship between Economic Growth and Human Capital: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey Mahmut ZORTUK Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, ĐĐBF, Đktisat Bölümü, Kütahya, Türkiye mzortuk@istanbul.edu.tr Đbrahim BAKIRTAŞ Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, ĐĐBF, Đktisat Bölümü, Kütahya, Türkiye ibakirtas@dumlupinar.edu.tr Serkan VARSAK Bilecik Üniversitesi, ĐĐBF, Đktisat Bölümü, Bilecik, Türkiye svarsak@bilecik.edutr Abstract: The aim of this study is to explain the long and short run probable effects on the economic growth of human capital. According to main hypothesis of research, as human capital raises, the economic capital raises. In our analysis, human capital is defined with two variables. These are school enrollment rate (SR) and education spending for each student (ED). The growth rate is defined as real gross domestic product rate (GDP). The analysis includes 1970-2008 term of Turkey. The main hypothesis is tested by the help of Bounds test approach. According to the analysis results there are long run meaningful these are variables. On the other hand, long run coefficients which are estimated by the help of the model are meaningful but short run unmeaning. These are results is parallelisms between the literature and the long run and short run coefficients symbols from the analysis results. Keywords: Human Capital, Economic Growth, Time Series. 1. Introduction Growth models which started with Keynes effect in 1930’s and frequently discussed till early 1950’s, found base with Ricardo and that were brought alternative approach with Marx, has been pushed to background in economic literature for 30 years until 1980’s. Although no general model has been reached about growth; several studies have been made in growth literature by the addition of new economic factors. Globalization in world economy rendered the production and usage of learning technology, qualified labor power, and consequently the importance of human capital. Human capital is the only production factor that could unite and use all other production factors and handle the possible problems that could occur in all other production factors. For this reason, the formation targeted investments of developing countries gained importance in order to realize the expected level of the economic growth. Human capital concept which is one of the major sources of economic growth is being used to express all concepts such as {knowledge, ability, skills, health condition, place in social relations and education level} (Kar ve Ağır, 2003). Although classic economists like Adam Smith, J. Stuart Mill and Alfred Marshall first studied the human capital concept, their opinions have been ignored by modern human capital theories. Later on, Denison, Schultz and Becker; developed the human capital concept referring to Smith’s opinions and integrated it into their analysis as one of the production factors such as physical capital. Studies included in economy literature, has approved the hypothesis of “human capital needs investments just like economy needs physical capital investments” (Kar ve Ağır, 2003). Human capital build up is accepted as the most important factor in the achievement of the expected growth and progress. Companies started giving more importance to personal training in order to exist, compete and get along with the innovation. In the recent years, it is accepted that training achieves not only personal development but also social and economical progress (Hoşgörür ve Gezgin, 2005). However, evoking of this power depends on human capital and the support given to training of human capital. It is a resource; in breeding of qualified labor power which is consistent with the needs of national economy, achievement of social order and realization of economical growth at desired level by supporting the development of higher techniques (Wykstra, 1971). 439 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 2. Literature The impact of human capital on economic growth has been explained using Internal Growth Models and Neo-classical Growth Theory. In the studies concerning this issue the impact of human capital on growth has been measured using the impact of education, which is a measurable human capital indicator, on economic growth. Other capital factors were not included in the analyses made and the studies have been based on the relationship of education and growth (Atik, 2006). The studies that formed the basis of neoclassical growth theory were carried out by Solow (1956) and Swan (1956). In the studies based on Neo-classical economics theory, the impact of human capital factors on economic growth was calculated using Cobb-Douglas production function. The function is given below. Y t = AKt α Ht β Lt γ (1) In Equation (1), the following abbreviations were used; Y; Real income, A; External information, K; Physical capital, H; Education, L; Labor force, α ; Physical Capital Elasticity of Production, β ; Educational elasticity, γ ; Labor force elasticity, t; Time. In the studies based on Cobb-Douglas production function, different indicators were used for education variable. The most common indicators used are; school admission rates, graduation rates, average period of education, educational expenses and the rate of schooling (Atik, 2006). The first study belongs to Schultz (1960). Schultz, making use of the educational indicators in USA between the years 1900–1956, reached the conclusion that all the GNP could not be accounted for by traditional production factors. Schultz asserted that the unaccountable part comprises the variables incorporated to the model under human capital indicators and the rise in the national product which was not accountable by the traditional production factors could be explained by the labor force who are primary school, secondary school and higher education graduates. Nonneman and Vanhoudt (1996) made a generalization of Expanded Solow model in their study and obtained a production function related to the model and used effective labor force as a variable. In the study made by Nonneman and Vanhoudt using the economic growth rates of OECD member countries; only human capital, technological knowledge oriented investments and their starting points were considered to be significant and taken as explanatory variables. Through this study, Nonneman and Vanhoudt have reached the conclusion that the major factors which affect economic growth in almost every economy, especially those of OECD countries, are human capital and technological investments. Denison (1962) investigated the relationship between average education period and economic growth using the annual data pertaining to 1910–1960 period. The results of the analysis suggest that 23% of the economic growth in the USA might be accounted for based on the increase in the level of education of the labor force. Another study which investigates the impact of human capital on economic growth was conducted by Chuang (1999). In the study which investigated two major components of the impact of human capital on longterm economic growth, namely human capital accumulation and technological advancement processes, industrial data from Taiwan were taken as the basis. According to the findings of this study; 7% of the 29% increase in total production can be explained by the increase in levels of education. Schultz (1999) who studied the relationship between economic growth and individual capital stressed that health and education investments not only bring individual benefits but also are important for economic growth. The investments in the fields of education and health in the African continent which is considered to be underdeveloped in education and health services have been assessed and the impact of the scarcity of investment in these fields on economy was evaluated. Schultz has, in view of the series used for obtaining data, reached the conclusion that education and health services in African countries positively effect economic growth. Another study which investigates the impact of human capital on economic growth was conducted by Rangazas (2000). In his study, which uses the data pertaining to the USA for the period from 1870 to 1970, he has investigated the impact of human capital on economic growth. Rangazas divided the labor factor into human capital and unskilled labor force. According to the findings of the study, the growth rate realized as 9,3% from 1870 to 1970 might be accounted for as 20% by physical capital, 6,7% by human capital, and 69% by labor force. Moreover, it has also been concluded that educated labor factor increases the strength of physical capital in defining the increase in growth. Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988) have laid the foundations of internal growth theories. In internal growth models human capital accumulation creates positive externalities and has a positive effect on economic growth. Internal growth models try to make up for the deficiencies of the Cobb-Douglas type production function. Internal growth models include the impact of human capital on production factors and total factor productivity in the analysis. The production function used in internal growth models is as follows (Atik, 2006): Y=A(H) F(H,L,R,A) (2) 440 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo In the equation (2), the following abbreviations are used Y income, A(H): technology internalized during education, H education, L unskilled labor force, R: R&D, and A technological knowledge. In Barro (1991)’s study which explains the relationship between human capital and economic growth, the increase in the real value of the per capita GNP of 98 countries in the time period covering 1960-1985 has a positive relationship with initial human capital (according to 1960 school records) yet displays a negative relationship with the initial value of the GNP. Countries that have larger human capitals also display a lower birth rate. Growth is in inverse proportion with the expenditures of government in GNP. Other important findings include the positive correlation between growth rates and political stability and the negative correlation of the growth rates with negative macroeconomic indicators of the market. Wolff and Gittleman (1993) have defined the human capital variable as school admission rates and investigated the impact of human capital on economic growth. The impact of education on labor force has been analyzed in the study. As a result of the analyses it has been asserted that admission to higher education rates increase labor productivity. Tallman and Wang (1994) investigated whether or not the human capital was the source of growth in Taiwanese economy using the data pertaining to the period 1965-1989. Tallman and Wang based their study on Lucas-Romer type internal growth model. The most important assumption of the model appears as human capital has a fixed yield. The findings of the study suggest that human capital factors effect the labor force in Taiwan and account for 40% of the economy and human capital is an important factor that enhances the productivity of technology and labor force. Benhabib and Spiegel (1994), through the model they have built in their study, have studied the adaptation speed of human capital to technological developments in 121 developed and developing countries using the panel data pertaining to 1965-1985 period and they have tested the hypothesis “human capital effects the physical capital productivity and increases total factor productivity”. They have obtained the result that human capital as a production factor has a negative effect on economic growth. However, as a result of the analysis they have made they concluded that human capital has an indirect impact on economic growth rather than a direct one. Coe, Helpman and Hofmaister (1997) have taken average education period as the human capital variable. They have explained the impact of human capital on economic growth for 77 countries covering the time period from 1971 to 1990 in their study. According to the obtained findings, those developing countries which have high levels of education and research and development expenditures acquire positive externalities from the trade with developed countries and have an increase in the productivity of production factors as they produce new technologies. Einarsson and Marquis (1998), on the other hand; adapted the Lucas model to the real business cycles and searched for the influence of human capital on economical growth of the USA. In this study performed using the annual data of the years from 1950 to 1989, they reached the conclusion that the rate of human capital growth was slower than that of physical capital growth and that its influence on economical growth was less strong compared to that of the physical capital. Erk, Çubuk and Ateş (1998), studied on accumulation of physical capital and human capital and also their long run effects on economical growth. In this study they established three alternative models and applied them on 45 developing countries. Moreover, making use of the results of this study the reason for why the developed countries have lower long term growth coefficients compared to the under-developed countries was searched for. In the first model established they used the data pertaining to the 45 countries selected covering the period between the years 1960-1990 and these data revealed that the slope rates that give unit change rates of human capital and physical capital are high for the developed countries and low for the developing ones. Another study focusing on theoretical approaches concerning human capital and production technologies belongs to Park (2004), who manipulates effects of economic growth on distribution of population as for human capital, considering educational success levels. Here, using the data pertaining to some developing and developed countries collected in five- year-periods between the years 1960 and 1995, it was concluded that human capital distribution has a positive interaction with growth. Tunç (1993) in a study, searched for the contribution of schooling rate to the economic growth of Turkey using the annual data pertaining to 1968-1995 and simple regression method. According to the regression results the influence of secondary school schooling rates was determined to be 40%, while higher education schooling rate had a contribution of 0,09%. Furthermore, the study has shown that there is a close relationship between the development levels of the countries and the educational levels of the labor force in economy. Ateş (1998), on the other hand, using the annual data pertaining to 1960-1994 period in Turkey, analyzed the capacity of extended Solow model with human capital to explain economic growth. Ateş reached the conclusion that the capacity to explain the changes in economic growth is higher in extended Solow model with human capital compared to the non-extended Solow model. 441 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo The common point of the all studies is that long term economic growth of the countries that care about human capital accumulation beside the other production factors is larger compared to that of the other countries (Gümüş, 2004: 159). Moreover, the main subject of these studies is economic development. Because the most important factor was deemed to be economic growth in realization phase of economic development, the studies were analyzed around the axis of growth. 3.Data and Methodology This study examines the plausible impacts of human development on the economic growth in the light of hypotheses by using annual date for 1970-2008. For the model in which real gross national product (GNP) is dependent variable we use two independent variables, namely; school enrollment rate (SR) and educational expenditure per student (EDE). SR is defined as simple mean values of the rates of primary education, secondary education and higher education. GNP data are from State Planning Organization (DTP), EDE data are from Ministry of Education (MEB), and SR data are from database of World Development Indicators (WDI). In our analyses we use the logarithmic values of GNP, EDE, SR. The model is as follows: ln GNPt = α 0 + α 1 ln EDEt + α 2 ln SRt + u t (3) To implement the bounds test let us define a vector of two variables, zt , where zt = ( y t , xt' )' , yt is the dependent variable and xt is a vector of regressors. The data generating process of zt is a p-order vector autoregression. For cointegration analysis it is essential that ∆ yt be modelled as a conditional error correction model (CECM); p q i =1 j =0 ∆y t = c0 + π yy y t −1 + π yx. x xt −1 + ∑ ϑi ∆y t −i + ∑ φ 'j ∆xt − j + θω t + µ t (4) Here, πyy and πyx.x are long-run multipliers. co is the constant and ωt is a vector of exogenous components, e.g dummy variables. Lagged values of ∆yt and current and lagged values of ∆xt are used the model the short-run dymamic structure and µ t is error term. The bounds testing procedure for the absence of any level relationship between yt and xt is through exclusion of the lagged levels variables yt-1 and xt-1 in Equation 4. It follows, then, that our test for the absence of a conditional level relationship between yt and xt entails the following null and alternative hypotheses: H0; πyy = 0, πyx.x=0' , Hl; πyy ≠ 0, πyx.x ≠ 0' veya πyy ≠ 0, πyx.x= 0' ya da πyy = 0, πyx.x ≠ 0' Peseran et.al.(2001) generated two sets of critical values assuming that both regressors are I(1) and both are I(0). While the critical values are reported in Pesaran and Pesaran (1997) and Pesaran et al. (2001), they are generated for sample sizes of 500 observations and 1000 observations and 20 000 and 40 000 replications, respectively. The F Statistic that has a non-standart distiribution, depends upon; (i) whether the ARDL model contains an intercept and/or a trend, (ii) the number of regressors, (iii) whether variables included in the ARDL model are I(0) or I(1). If the calculated F statistic is higher than the upper critical value, I(1), the null hypothesis of no long-run relationship can be rejected without knowing the order of integration of the regressors. Alternatively, if calculated F statistic is smaller than the lower critical value, I(0), the null hypothesis is accepted without knowing the order of integration of the regressors. When the test statistic falls inside the upper and lower critical value, a conclusive inference cannot be made. Then, we must know the order of integration of variables, I(d), for any conclusion can be drawn. There are different advantages of the bounds testing approach that motivates us in our work. This procedure can be applied to models irrespective of whether the variables are I(0) or I(1). This is unlike other popular cointegration techniques such as the Engle and Granger (1987), Johansen and Juselius (1990) and, which require pre-testing the variables to determine their order of integration. (Pesaran and Pesaran, 1997) Other advantage of bounds testing for this work that the method can be applied in case in which data set is of small sample sizes, such as a in the present study. Narayan(2005) show that the bounds testing approach to cointegration is popular in small sample sizes. In addition to the tis advantages the bounds test, the Engle-Granger Method the Unrestricted Error Correction Model does not push the short run dynamics into the residual terms. Thus, the ARDL approach, because it draws upon the Unrestricted Error Correction Model has better statistical properties than the EngleGranger cointegration test (Benarjee et.al., 1998) 442 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo The UECM for equation (1) can be written as below: n n n i =1 i =0 i =0 ∆ ln GNPt = a 0 + ∑ a1i ∆ ln GNPt −i + ∑ a 2i ∆ ln EDE t −i + ∑ a3i ∆ ln SRt −i + a 4 ln GNPt −1 + a 5 ln EDEt −1 + a 6 ln SRt −1 + a 7 DUM + et (5) where, ∆lnGNP, ∆lnEDE and ∆lnSR are first difference of the logarithms of real domestic income (lnGNP), real education expenditure (lnEDE), and school rate (lnSR) respectively. We include a dummy variable to account for structural break. DUM is dummy variable that indicates the beginning of eight-year basic education in Turkey in 1997. The dummy variable is defined by: DUM = 1 If t = 1997-2008 0 otherwise 4. Empirical Results The ADF and PP test the null of a unit root against the alternative of stationary. We allow both intercept and intercept with trends in the testing. As shown in Table 1, the testing results are mixed. Since none of the variables are integrated at an order higher than one, this allows the use of the ARDL bounds procedure. Table 1.Test results for unit roots lnGNP ∆lnGNP lnEDE ∆lnEDE lnSR ∆lnSR ADFa intercept 0.37(0) -6.48(1)* 0.32(2) -3.34(1)* 0.17(1) 3.96(1)* intercept and trend -2.17(0) -6.42(0)* -1.09(2) -3.37(1)* -2.11(0) -4.07(0)* PPb intercept 0.08(2) -6.48(0)* 0.52(0) -4.87(3) 0.32(1) 4.05(1)* intercept and trend -2.67(0) -6.42(0)* -1.13(1) -5.10(2)* -1.79(1) -4.08(1)* Notes: aH0: the series has a unit root. AIC is used to select the lag length. The maximum number of lags is set to be four. bH0: the series has a unit root. Barlett–Kernel is used as the spectral estimation method. The bandwidth is selected using Newey– West method. *, indicate 1% level of significance. The optimal lag length or bandwidth is indicated in the parentheses. The calculated F-statistic together with the critical values are reported in Table 2. The calculated Fstatistic (Wald test), that necessary for testing the presence of cointegration relation among the variables of equation (2). When real GNP is the dependent variable, the calculated F- statistic is FRGNP(RGNP|REDE,RSR)=7.6127 (Prob:0.002). This value higher than the upper bond critical value of 6.36 at the %1 level. The result suggest that the null hypothesis of no long-run relationship can be rejected. A maximum of 2 lags was used for the model. The estimated model presented here is based on the Schwarz Bayesian Criterion. The long-run and short-run results are presented in Tables 3. Cusum and Cusum of Squares tests proposed by Brown et al. (1975) are used in testing for constancy of the long-run parameters. As seen from Figure 1, Cusum and Cusum of Squares tests statistics are inside the 95% confidence interval. This result shows that applied Cusum and Cusum of Squares tests clearly indicate stability of the estimated parameters of the CECM during the sample period. In addition to this Figure 1 was subjected to a number of diagnostic tests, including test of autocorrelation, normality and heteroskedasticity in the error stability term. We found no evidence of autocorrelation in the disturbance of the error term. The estimated model passes the Jarque-Berra normality tests, suggesting that the errors are normally distributed and the Ramsey-Reset test indicates that the model is correctly specified while according to the ARCH test, there is no problem of heteroskedasticity. Table 2. Cointegration Test Results (Critical value Bounds of the F -statistic: Unrest’d intercepts and no trends) 90% level 95% level 99% level k I(0) 2 3.17 Calculated F-statistic FRGNP(RGNP|REDE,RSR) I(1) 4.14 I(0) 3.79 I(1) 4.85 I(0) 5.15 I(1) 6.36 7.6127 (Prob:0.002) Note: The critical value are extracted Peseran et. al. Table CI(iii) Case III and k: The number of explanatory variables. lnEDE lnSR Table 3. Estimated Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticity’s UECM Short-run Long-run -0.02 (Prob: 0.1497) 0.022 (Prob: 0.0042) -0.13 (Prob: 0.2123) 0.40 (Prob: 0.0025) 443 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo *The long run coefficient of DUM variable is calculated to be 0.95 (Prob: 0.031). 12 1.6 8 1.2 4 0.8 0 0.4 -4 0.0 -8 -12 -0.4 1994 1996 1998 CUSUM 2000 2002 2004 2006 5% Significance 2008 1994 1996 1998 2000 CUSUM of Squares 2002 2004 2006 2008 5% Significance Jarque-Bera:1.61 (Prob:0.44), Ramsey Reset[1]: 2.49 (Prob:0.13), Ramsey Reset[2]: 1.97 (Prob:0.19) Breusch-Godfrey, LM test[1]: 0.42 (Prob:0.53), LM test[2]: 0.21 (Prob:0.80), ARCH test[1]:0.02 (Prob:0.87), ARCH test[2]:0.49 (Prob:0.61) ARCH test[3]:0.33 (Prob:0.79). Figure 1. Plots of Cusum Cusum of Squares and Diagnostic tests for the estimated UECM 5. Conclusion and Policy Implication Studies started in 1950’s which human capital concept up to nowadays, are measuring the relationship between growth and progress of domestic economies and education level of the society and moreover effect of education on increase in average per capital income and accordingly rise in national income. Studies on determination of schooling rates and education expenses and their economical effects; stated that there is a positive relation between education and personal income. Additionally, continuing studies showed that as schooling rate and education period increase, the personal income increases faster, personal income raise could be explained with the raise in personal education, education expenses have positive effect on income distribution and domestic education expense levels have linear relation with development levels. By the advantage of this fundamental knowledge and rich literature, a long term statistical meaningful relation has been found between schooling rates, educational expense per student and real gross national expenditure growth rate variables and variables derived from the results of Bounds test approach which were carried on between 1970 and 2008 in Turkey. While model based predicted long term coefficients are said to be meaningful, short term coefficients are found meaningless. At the end of the analysis, it was seen that long and short term coefficient signs derived from the analysis are parallel to the literature. References Ateş, S., Çubuk, A. ve Erk, N. (1998), "Long-Run Growth and Physical Capital-Human Capital Concentration". Working Paper presented at the International METU Conference on Economics II, September 11, Ankara. Ateş, S. (1998), Yeni Đçsel Büyüme Teorileri ve Türkiye Ekonomisinin Büyüme Dinamiklerinin Analizi, Çukurova Üniversitesi SBE, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Atik, H. (2006), Beşeri Sermaye, Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik Büyüme, Bursa: Ekin Kitapevi. Banerjee, A.J., Dolado, J., Mestre, R.(1998), “Error-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in Single Equation a Framework”, Journal of Time Series Analysis,19: 267- 283. Barro, R. J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2): 407443. Benhabip, J. and Spiegel, M. (1994), “The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(2):143-173. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., Evans, J. M.. (1975), “Techniques for Testing to Constancy of Regression Relations over Time”, Journal of Royal Statistical Soceity B, 37:149-192. Chuang, Y. (1999), “The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development: Evidence from Taiwan”, Asian Economic Journal, 13 (2): 117-144. 444 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Coe, D.T., Helpman, E. and Hoffmaister, A. W. (1997), “North-South R&D Spillovers”, Economic Journal, 107 (440): 134149 Denison, E. W. (1962), “Education, Economic Growth and Gaps in Information”, The Journal of Political Economy, 70:124128. Engle R.F. and Granger C.V.J., (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55:251–276. Einarsson, T. and Marquis, M. H. (1998), "An RBC Model with Growth: The Role of Human Capital", Journal of Economics and Business, 50: 431-444 Gümüş, S. (2005), Beşeri Sermaye ve Ekonomik Kalkınma: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, Đstanbul : ĐKV Yayınları. Hoşgörür, V. ve Gezgin, G.(2005), “Ekonomik ve Sosyal Kalkınmada Eğitim”, Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi, Elektronik Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi 2 (1): http://efdergi.yyu.edu.tr (22.11.2006). Johansen S. And Juselieus K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistic, 52:169-210. Kar, M. ve Ağır, H. (2003), “Türkiye’de Beşeri Sermaye ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Nedensellik Testi”, II. Ulusal Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, 181-190 Lucas, R. E. (1988), “On The Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22: 3-42. Narayan, P. K. (2005), “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence From Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37: 1979–1990. Nonneman, Y. and Vanhoudt, P. (1996), “A Further Augmentation of the Solow and the empirics of Economics Growth for OECD Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(3): 943-953. Park, J. (2004), “Dispersion of Human Capital and Economic Growth”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 28(3):520-529. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289–326. Pesaran, H. M. and Pesaran, B. (1997), Microfit 4.0, England: Oxford University Press. Rangazas, P. (2000), “Schooling and Economic Growth: A King-Rebelo Experiment with Human Capital”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(2): 397-416. Romer, P.M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5):1002-1037 Schultz, T. W. (1960), “Capital Formation by Education”, Journal of Political Economy, 68 (1): 571-583. Schultz, T. W. (1999), “Education and Economic Growth: Return to Education” Readings in the Economics of Education, UNESCO, 277-292. Solow, R. M., (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70:65-94. Swan, T.W. (1956), “Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation,” Economic Record, 32:334-361 Tallman, E. and Wang, P. (1994), “Human Capital and endogenous Growth: Evidence from Taiwan”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34(3): 101-124. Tunç, M. (1993), “Türkiye’de Eğitimin Ekonomik Kalkınmaya Etkisi”, DEÜ, ĐĐBF Dergisi, 8(2):1-32. Wolff, E.N. and Gittleman, M. (1993), “The Role of Education in Productivity Convergence: Does Higher Education Matter?”, Explaining Economic Growth, A. Szermai, B.V. Ark and D. Pilat (Eds.), North Holland: Elsevier Science Publishers, 147-167. Wykstra, R. A. (1974), Education and the Economics of Human Capital. New York: Free Pres. 445 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 289 Title A name given to the resource The Relationship between Economic Growth and Human Capital: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey Author Author ZORTUK, Mahmut BAKIRTAS, ibrahim VARSAK, Serkan Abstract A summary of the resource. The aim of this study is to explain the long and short run probable effects on the economic growth of human capital. According to main hypothesis of research, as human capital raises, the economic capital raises. In our analysis, human capital is defined with two variables. These are school enrollment rate (SR) and education spending for each student (ED). The growth rate is defined as real gross domestic product rate (GDP). The analysis includes 1970-2008 term of Turkey. The main hypothesis is tested by the help of Bounds test approach. According to the analysis results there are long run meaningful these are variables. On the other hand, long run coefficients which are estimated by the help of the model are meaningful but short run unmeaning. These are results is parallelisms between the literature and the long run and short run coefficients symbols from the analysis results. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/57be8c6bd9026bdb575bbe286565eeca.pdf 50ce589bba018271bfbea37fe046cfbf PDF Text Text 2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Tax Revenue: Bounds Testing Mehmet MERCAN Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi mmercan@adu.edu.tr Ġsmet GÖÇER Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi igocer@adu.edu.tr ġahin BULUT Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi sbulut@adu.edu.tr M. Metin DAM Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi metindam@hotmail.com Abstract : Taxes are one of the most important sources of finance; moreover they are able to have various impacts on chief indicators of economy. However, taxes may have negative as well as positive impacts. The relationship between economic growth and tax revenue in Turkish economy has been studied in this survey. In the survey, the existence of relationship between series and cointegration as well as long and short term links have been studied through ARDL bounds testing and it was observed that series moved together in the long term. In the long term analysis, a relationship between indirect and direct taxes with economic growth has a meaningful and positive relationship. It was found out that direct taxes effect bigger than indirect taxes. In the short term analysis, the coefficient of vector error correction model was signed negative and statistically meaningful. This means that the deviation, which took place in the short term between series which moved together in the long term, has disappeared and series came close to each other. Again, both types of taxes in the analysis of short-term growth is positive and statistically significant influenced, besides in the short term analysis it was observed that indirect taxes effect bigger than direct taxes. Key words: Economic Growth, Indirect and direct taxes revenue, Bounds testing. JEL Sınıflandırması: E62, H21, H27, O49. 1. Introduction Tax is the transfer of the sources without any provision and under the rules of political force from the economical deparments of the goverment in order to provide the expenses of the puclic facilities (Temiz, 2008). Throughout the history countries have provided the income they need to act their basic functions by collecting taxes.At the same time tax policy is used for the economic and social purposes like allocation for sources through increasing internal savings,increasing economic growth of the country, providing price stability and controling the production and consumption level indirectly. Tax incomes are one of the most essential sources to administer the public facilities.In order to provide social security services,state investments and the other public expenses the goverment will either collect taxes or get into the debt. Getting into debt is the last way to prefer for the countries. Taxes in an economic system may effect the amount of the goods and services produced and the income and prices of production factors directly or indirectly (Yılmaz, 1996). The taxes which have the capacity to effect directly 626 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo people‘s decisions to use for the labour, savings,investment and source can be effective on the economic growth via different channels.Especially for the developing economies analysing the relationship between the taxes that are the primary source for the public and the growth would contribute to form tax policies and improve some applications (Gül ve Kenar, 2009).Especially in developing countries today taxation policy which is an instrument for the financial policy is a very effective financial instrument (Eker vd., 1996:32). We can categorize the taxes in use today in three groups according to the characters of the event that caused for their use: The taxes about the incomes including income taxes, corporation taxes,etc;the taxes about expenses including income taxes based upon expenses,transaction and sale taxes and custom taxes,etc;the taxes about the propertiess and the transfer of the properties including general property taxes,real estate taxes,capital taxes,motor vehicle taxes (Temiz,2008). Also taxes can be categorized in some other forms as in rem-monetary,spesific-advolorem and directindirect taxes (Bulutoğlu,1970). Furthermore it is also common to categorize the taxes in two big classes as direct or indirect. While analysing the reflection of the taxes on the economic growth in recent studies, especially direct and indirect identification is used.This identification is also very essential to form good taxation systems. Direct taxes are the taxes collected from the individuals and the corporations according to their income level whose tax payer and payer is the same. In these taxes there is no possibility for the tax payers to reflect his tax obligation to the others. Income taxes that the goverment collect from the factor incomes (interest, fee, profit, annuity) and taxes on the properties and corporation taxes are the example for the direct taxes (Turan,2008). On the other hand indirect taxes are the taxes resulted from the use of goods and services.Everybody using the taxable goods and services pay the tax at the same percentage however income they have.In these taxes the tax payer and its payer is different. The Value Added Tax and the excies tax are in the group of indirect taxes. (Temiz,2008). The situation desired in the taxation policies is to provide most of the tax collection by the direct taxes.These taxes mostly support the economic growth. However, indirect taxes can contribute to the economic growth like direct taxes if they are used suitable for economic structure of the country,too. Economic growth expresses the increase of the real national income in the length of time.In developed or especially developing countries economic growth has a special importance. There are many theories in this issue.Economic growth theories are analysed in terms of their factors,qualities and characters that have effects on the economic growth. In this context economic growth theories mostly major on the matters of capital accumulation,technical improvement and population increase.In an economy there are two commonly approved approaches about the economic growth rate. These are Harrod-Domar and Neo-classic Harrod-Domar growth model founded by making Keynesyen balance model dinamic and based on Keynesyen hypothesis actracted many attentions in the post-war years. Harrod-Domar model suggests the idea that growth rate is determined by the capital accumulation.In this case it can be possible for the goverment to realize the target growth rate by intervening the economy via the financial policy instruments or to remove the possible drifts on the long term growth rate.In this context the government on one hand has a great role to realize the economic growth with the public expenses,on the other hand it can use the taxation policy as an instrument for an increase in the total savings quantity of the economy.In this case it will be possible to increase the public savings,to encourage private investments and to resist against the structural instabilities which are derived from the economic growth and may cause a danger in growth.(Demircan, 2003). At the same time indirect taxes can help to reduce the consumption and encourage the savings in the economy by effecting the relative prices.So an indirect tax on the consumption goods can reduce the expenses on these goods by increasing the consumption cost and it can help these sources to be directed to the investments. (Temiz,2008). In this study the relationship between the indirect and direct tax incomes and the economic growth in Turkey is analysed with the limit test approach by the help of the annual information between 1924 and 2009 years.In the study,in second section following the introduction part,the sructure of the taxation in Turkey is analysed and third section including a summary of literature about the subject follows. Method and information set are in the fourth,analyse and empiric findings are in the fifith section.The study ends with a short conclusion and evaluation part. 2. Taxation Applications In Turkey While in developed countries especially rate of the direct taxes are high in tax incomes,in developing countries indirect taxes are high.In developed countries avarage %26 of total taxes , in developing countries more than %50 of taxes is composed of indirect taxes. The main reason for that is the application of indirect taxes is easier in spite of the difficulties in the application of the taxes collected on the income, the individuals are unaware about 627 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo these taxes and they response less to the tax implementors.The high rate of the indirect taxes in developing countries is closely related to the economic growth.Since the taxation systems are not exactly efficient in these countries, indirect taxes are emphasized.(Temiz,2008). When the improvement of indirect and direct taxes are analysed in Turkey a great and fast change stand out in the composition of the direct and indirect taxes in total tax incomes especially post-1980. While the indirect tax rate is %36 in 1980,this rate went up to % 64 when we were in 2009. It can be said that the taxes collected from goods and services like value added tax and excise tax have an essential role in total tax incomes in the increase of indirect taxes. Especially after the economic crisis in 1994 in Turkey the rate of indirect taxes in total taxes increased an this rate rised until %69.(Graphic 1).After economic crisis and The Marmara Earthquake in 1999 some temporary taxes became permanent and this was effective on this rise. While 71 Billion TL of tax (%36)of the total 196 Billion TL of tax collected in 2009 in Turkey is consisted of direct taxes, the rest of 125 Billions of TL(%64)of tax is consisted of indirect taxes. This shows we are very far away from the ideal porsion rate between direct and indirect taxes. Graphic: 1 The Portion of Direct and Indirect Taxes in Tax Incomes in Turkey 80 70 60 50 Direct Dolaysız Tax 40 Vergi Dolaylı İndirect Tax 30 Vergi 20 10 0 Source: Income Directory Management (GĠB). 1923 1930 1937 1944 1951 1958 1965 1972 1979 1986 1993 2000 2007 One important point is that the rate of the tax incomes of the countries in the rate of gross national product.While this rate passes %40 in developed countries,it is %20 in developing countries.(Graphic 2). This rate is essential in showing how much public expenses are financed by the tax incomes and whether the countries need external loans or not. Graphic2: The Rate of Tax Incomes in the Rate of Gross National Product (%) 45 40 35 OECD OECD Total Toplam 30 OECD Amerika OECD OECD USA Pasifik 25 OECD Avrupa 20 OECD ABPasific 15 15 Türkiye 10 OECD Europe 5 EU 15 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 0 Turkey Source: OECD, Revenue Statistics of OECD Member Countries, Paris,2009. 628 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo 3. Literature There is a wide literature on the subject of the effects of the direct and indirect taxes on long term growth.In accordance with the Neo-classic growth model Solow (1956) supposes that taxation has no effect on long term growth. Most of the studies in accordance with the Internal growing model result direct and indirect taxes have a negative effect on the long term growth. It is accepted that indirect taxes have more effects on the gowth than the direct taxes. Marsden (1983),wanted to stress that as the tax rates increase it causes low growth. Skinner (1987), reached a similar result by using the rates of personal and institutional income taxes. King ve Rebelo (1990), observed about % 2 of decrease in growth per year when tax rates increased % 10.As a result in the study, he stated that in long term income taxes have a decreasing effect on the individual earnings,on the other hand Mendoza vd. (1997) stated that in theory it can be estimated that the changes in income taxes affect the investments and the growth but in practise the tax policy and the changes on composition of direct and indirect taxes is an uneffective instrument to effect the economical growth in long term. Easterly ve Rebelo (1992) who used an information set about 1970-1988 years for many developing countries concluded that two measurements about marginal income rates have a negative but unimportant effect on the individual consumption growth . Plosser (1992) stated that there is a negative relationship between avarage individual real growing rates and avarage tax rates on income and profits in OECD countries,while William Easterley ve Sergio Robelo (1993) stated that this negative relationship disappeared when the begining income stage was checked. Writers also stated that the countries applying low tax rates was more succesful in reaching a high growing speed than the countries applying high tax rates. Roubini and Milesi-Feretti (1994) searched the effects of income taxes in open economy on the economic growth in accordence with the internal growing models.They especially stressed on the effects of the taxation of the income on the pysical capital saving decision of private sector and increase of the allocations via individual capital savings.Writers concluded that allocation and pysical taxes have negative effects on the growth. In an another study Roubini and Milesi-Feretti (1995) searched the effects of income and consumption taxes in the process based on the pysical and individual capital savings. The results showed that in general taxation of factor incomes(individual and pysical capital) had decreasing effects on the growth.The effect of consumption taxes on the growth is determined to change according to the supply of labour flexibility and consequently free time preferances. Razin and Yuen (1995) searched the effects of taxation of capital income on the long term growth in accordence with the internal growing model which is open to the international capital movements and the population increase is considered as an internal variable. The results of the study containing G7 countries showed that in the case of whole capital movement, cuts on the capital taxes would cause a decrease on the individual income rates and growth. Engen ve Skinner (1992) who used an information set including 1970-1985 years about 107 countries stated that both expenses of the state and the taxation have strong and negative effects on the growth,it was estimated a 1.4 percent point decrease on long term growth by increasing the budget with 10 percent in balance on the expenses of the state and the taxation,the administritive structure of the tax system was also important on the evaluation of the effect of the taxation on the production , Ram‘s results were supported by the instrumental variables approach. Engen ve Skinner (1996) searhed the effects of a general taxation cut under the control of three approach on the long term growth.These approaches consists of a micro model containing investigation of historical time series for the USA, a stage regresion analysis, labour supply,investment demand and productivity boost. The result of the study show that taxation had a mid-staged effect on the long term growth. Leibfritz and the others (1997) stated that about a 10 percent point increase on the tax rates in the past 35 years could have decreased the OECD annual growth rates about ½ percent point,however this calculation had some defects to evaluate the effects of taxes on the economy so it was necessary to support these calculations with an another approach. Kneller and the others (1999) who studied weather the proofs in OECD countries are coherent with the estimates of the endogenic growing models anticipating that puclic expenses and the structure of the taxes could effect the stable growth rate by using an information set including 1970 and 1995 years about 22 OECD countries reached a fact that non-deforming taxation didn‘t decrease the growth but deforming taxation decreased the growth, productive state expenses increased the growth but non-productive expenses didn‘t increased the growth. 629 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Anastassiou and Dritsaki (2005)searched for the Greece economy the tax incomes,direct marginal tax rates and the relationship between savings-income rate and growth rate.In the study to search for the long term realtions Johansen koentegrasyon method,fort he short term relations Granger causility test was used.The proofs showed the existence of a long term relation between the variations in the study. In term of short term relations, it was found a one way casual relation from direct marginal tax rates and tax incomes to the growth. Durkaya ve Ceylan (2006) analised the realtionship between 1980–2004 years tax incomes and economical growth with Engle-Granger integration test and casuality test and figured out that there was a double sided realtion between direct taxes and growth,however there was no realtionship between indirect taxes and the growth. It was stated that if the tax increases to increase the tax incomes had been made upon the indirect taxes,the negative effect of the tax increase on the growth would have been decreased. It was also stated that the change of the current tax items from direct taxes to indirect taxes would make the same effect. In his study Demircan(2003)stated that there was a close relationship betweeen groth and economy policies and a growth and development in the country ecenomy was closely related with the income tax decreases. He stated that to work was important and the tax decreases which increase the production and national income would directly increase the gross national product rate,and also if there was a politic and economic stability in the state,the changes to reconstruct in tax conduction and mechanisms for taxing encouragement had positive effects on the growth and development.Also he stated that the direct taxes taken on expenses were both for providing the equality in taxes and they affected indirectly economic growth and development in terms of encouraging the savings by reducing the luxurious consumptions. 4. Data And Methods This survey covers 1924 and 2009. 3 variables have been used and all variables have been calculated in percentages. The variable vektör of the survey is: Yt=[DLIt, DSZt]. Y stands for Gross National Product (GNP), DLI indirect tax income and DSZ direct tax income. All data have been taken from the website of the Directorship of Income(www.gib.gov.tr). In this survey boundary test approach which was developed by Pesaran vd.(2001) has been used in order to study the effect of tax revenue over economic growth. This method is considered to be more usable when comperad to cointegration method developed by Engle-Granger. Series have to be stable in the first differnce in the EngleGranger and Johansen. Series can be in different stability levels in ARDL method. Another advantage of boundary test approach is that analysis can be made with only a few data. (Narayan and narayan, 2004:25) More over as the regresive variables included in analysis. The level and regressive values of independed veriables can be observed on depended variables. In boundary test apprach firstly whether series move together in long-term is analysized by means of ARDL cointegration method. Ġf there is conĢntegration relationship betwen series the coefficient and statistic of regression carried out with this serries will be meaningfull and reliable. Ġf relationship can be pointed out whit be serries lon an short term analysis are held by means of ARDL method. 5. Analysis And Empirical Findings 5.1. ADF Unit Root Test If time serries is not stable, medyan, variance and covariance changeble in time. Shocks take place in a term can effect the others and it becomes permanent. The analysis carried out in this case includs fake regression and F and t statistics loos their meaning (Gujarati, 1999:2.712). The stability levels of serries and unitroot test have been studied with ADF test. DF test is carried out based on three regression equation (Dickey and Fuller, 1979). Simple position: Yt  Yt 1  ut (1) Intercept: Yt   0  Yt 1  u (2) Trend and intercept: 630 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Yt   0  1 t  Yt 1  ut (3) As a result of this tests the DF statistic been compared Mac Kinnon crtitical values zero hypotesis is tested against the lternative hypotesis. Zero hypotesis showes that serries is not stable alternative hypotesis. Ġf error correction term is autocorrelated equation (3) is regulated as: m Y   0  1 t  Yt 1  i  Yt i ut (4) i 1 Here m stands for regression length and  stands for difference operator. Regression number depends on obtaining model without autocorrelation. A test which is carried out this way is called ADF test in short. Tests results obtained accordingly are shown in Table 1. Table 1: ADF Test Results Expanded for Dickey-Fuller Variables (ADF) Level Values 1. Difference Variables ADF sts.. Mac Kinnon %1 test values ADF sts. Mac Kinnon %1 test values G -1,83 -3,51 -8,40[2] -3,51 DLI -1,78 -3,52 -3,55[10] -3,52 DSZ -2,41 -3,51 -9,17[2] -3,51 Note:The values in [ ] points out teh number. By taking the lenght which Akaike is the lowest. Mac Kinnon test values pointed out without trend and intercept test values. In the Table 1 it is observed that all series I(1) when their first differences are taken. 5.2. Co-Integration Test The level values of many macroeconomic variables are not stable. If there is a co-integration relationship between series in other words if series move together in the long term, a fake regretion trouble will not be faced in an analysis to be carried out with level values(Pesaran etc, 2001:290;Gujarati 1999). However, the dynamic behaviors of variables moving together in the long term cause some deviations in the balance equation(Enders, 1996:151). This is one of the basic characteristic of co-integration variables and plays an important part in the short term dynamic. The dynamic model appearing along with this process is called error correction model(Enders, 1995: 365). An unrestricted error correction model is setup so that boundary test approach can be applied. (unrestricted error correction model: UECM) This model can be applied to our survey as fallows: m m i 1 i 0 m Gt   0   1i Gt i   2i DLIt i   3i DSZt i  4Gt 1  i 0  5 DLIt 1   6 DSZt 1  ut (5) Here, m; stands for optimum length, ∆ stands for difference operator, ut stands for error correction term, those which are given with other letter abbreviation stands fort he meanings in variable definitions. In this survey optimum lenght has been determined by means of Akaike Criterion. According to Kamas ve Joyce (1993) There musn‘t be restpective connection error terns of optimum laght lend so that the test can give healthy result. If there is autcorolation in the lag lenght which akaike criteria lowest. One has to next lag. The test result of lag lenght are presented in table 2. Maksimum lag lenght is 4 since the data in this survey is annual. m 1* 2 3 4 Table 2: The lag length is point out for boundary test AIC LM Test 8,217 0,69 8,295 0,47 8,246 0,04 8,287 0,19 631 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo The optiumum lag length determined as a one in the table 2.In this lag length hasn‘t aoutocorolation. After lag length determined it passed testing process cointegration relation ship between variables. In boundary cointegration relationship between values is made by mines of testing ziro hypotesis. (H0:α4=α5=α6=0) Zero hypotesis accept or reject is determinated with F test. Calculate value contrasted table conpered and contrast min and max value in Pesseran etc 2001 table. In the fisrt case if calculated F statistic value lover than min critic value. It is decided that there is coengration relation between series. In the second case if calculated F statistic value in between max and min critice value no definite commend can be made. In this case must be tried alternative cointegration methots. Finaly f calculated F statistic value bigger than table max critic it is decidet that there is cointegration relationship between serious. In this study unrestricted error correction model is estimate to lag length and calculated F statistic. Results given in table 3. For testing H0 calculated F statistic value compared with critic value which taken Pesaran etc 2001 in table 3. This critic values given fort 2 independed variable and mining full %1. Table 3: Boundary Test Results k F Calculated Min Max 2 14,20 5,15 6,36 Note: k stands for variable number. Critical values are extracted from Table CI (iii) in Pesaran etc. It is observed that calculated F statistics is higher than utmost critical value. In this case H0 hypothesis is denied and it is concluded that there is a co-integration relationship between variables. Since the existence of cointegration relationship between series is remarked, ARDL models started to be estimated to search the long and short term relationships between variables. 5.3 Long Term Analysis ARDL model which is used in order to analyse long term relations is formulated as: m n p i 1 i 0 i 0 Gt   0  1iGt i  2i DLIt i  3i DSZt i  ut (6) Here m, n, p is length and determined with AIC. This transaction has been carried out with the method that Kamas and Joyce(1993) proposed in their causality analyses so as to determine length. Therefore; first of all, regression according to dependent variables‘ own regressive values is made and the length of the whit out autocorelation model which gives the lowest AIC value. Then, regression models were formed by keeping the identified length of the dependent variable stable and all possible regressions of foreign direct investment variable which is the first independent variable and the regressive number of independent variables was found by taking AIC values into consideration. Optimum regression number was obtained by repeating similar transactions for other variables. As a result of the transaction carried out, it was decided that ARDL(4,1,4) was the long term ARDL model to be estimated and results are presented in table 4. The Lag Length determine for The Long Term Boundary Test m AIC LM n AIC LM p AIC (G) Test (DLI) Test (DSZ) 0 0 8,710 0,00 0 8,382 1 8,889 0,83 1 8,262 1* 8,600 0,60 2 8,925 0,11 2 8,621 0,94 2 8,286 3 8,900 0,17 3 8,643 0,14 3 8,309 4 8,662 0,23 4* 8,875 0,99 4* 8,244 LM Test 0,00 0,93 0,61 0,01 0,25 The estimate results of long term ARDL(4,1,4) and long term coefficients calculated based on the results mentioned are available in table 5. 632 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Table 5: The results of Estimated ARDL (4,1,4) Model and The Long Term Coefficients Variables Coefficient t-statistical c 0.980880 0.400290 Gt-1 -0.003891 -0.027863 Gt-2 -0.092723 -0.723156 Gt-3 -0.004752 -0.042695 Gt-4 -0.122843 -1.233238 DLIt 0.323505 3.733284 DLIt-1 0.131856 1.405338 DSZt 0.276303 4.966621 DSZt-1 0.208335 3.236775 DSZt-2 -0.025281 -0.367004 DSZt-3 0.016428 0.258477 DSZt-4 0.156683 2.534998 The Long Term Coefficient DLI 0,371963 4,251 DSZ 0,461113 4,094 c 0,801235 0,401 Diagnosis Tests R2=0.82 2BGAB(2 )=1,588(0.21) 2 2WDV=0,309(0.99) R =0.79 F ist.=29,58(0,00) 2JBN=24,78(0.00) DW=1,84 2RRMKH(1)=0,13(0.71) Note: Here, 2BGAB, 2WDV, 2JBN and 2RRMKH are respectively Breusch-Godfrey successive dependence, White changing variance, Jarque-Bera normality test and Ramsey model establishment error statistics in regression. The figures in parentheses reflect p-probability values. Taking the results in table 5 into consideration, both direct and indirect taxes increase economic growth and affect it statistically meaningfully. Dolaysız vergilerin büyümeyi, dolaylı vergilerden daha çok arttırdığı görülmektedir. 5.4. Kısa Dönem Analizi Short term relation between variables again investigated by means of ARDL Error Correction Model based on boundary test approach. ARDL model which is used in order to analyse short term relations is formulated as: m n p i 1 i 0 i 0 Gt   0  1ECt 1   2i Gt i  3i DLIt i  2i DSZt i  ut (7) Here ECt-1 is error correction terms and it stands for one term lagged of error terms series which it is obtained from long term relationship. Coefficient for this variable is point out duration of sort term deviation. If this sign of coefficient is negative, deviations happen in short term between series is convergences to long term balance value. If this sign of coefficient is positive, not convergences to long term balance value. In this model lag length of veriables determineted just like long term. As a result of the transaction carried out, it was decided that ARDL(5.1.0.0.0) was the short term ARDL model to be estimated and results are presented in Table 6. Table 6: Determination of Lag Length for short Term Boundary Test m AIC LM n AIC LM p AIC (∆G) Testi (∆DLI) Testi (∆DSZ) 0 0 8,893 0,28 0 8,633 1 9,002 0,58 1 8,790 0,12 1 8,422 2 8,939 0,33 2 8,428 2* 8,745 0,44 3 8,769 0,05 3 8,413 3* 8,912 0,77 4 8,927 0,31 4 8,783 0,02 4* 8,271 633 LM Testi 0,05 0,01 0,41 0,003 0,50 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Tablo 6‘da da görüldüğü üzere, tahmin edilecek kısa dönem ARDL modelinin ARDL(3,2,4) modeli olduğu sonucuna ulaĢılmıĢtır. ARDL(3,2,4) modeli tahmin edilmiĢ ve kısa dönem tahmin sonuçları Tablo 7‘de verilmiĢtir. Table 7: The Results of ARDL (3.2.4) Model DeğiĢken Katsayı t-istatistiği c -0.100249 -0.064078 0.043531 0.212927 Gt-1 -0.030741 -0.191601 Gt-2 0.009492 0.079344 Gt-3 DLIt 0.292074 3.742568 0.100524 0.937896 DLIt-1 -0.033611 -0.398041 DLIt-2 DSZt 0.282694 5.472546 0.227042 2.792811 DSZt-1 -0.018289 -0.187475 DSZt-2 0.038494 0.497487 DSZt-3 DSZt-4 0.187336 3.517646 ECt-1 -0.946504 -3.807904 Tanısal Testler R2=0,64 2BGAB(2 )=0,94(0,39) 2WDV=0,31(0,99) R 2 =0,58 DW=1,99 2JBN=24,65(0,00) F=10,42(0,00) 2RRMKH(1)=4,76(0,03) Note: Here, 2BGAB, 2WDV, 2JBN and 2RRMKH are respectively Breusch-Godfrey successive dependence, White changing variance, Jarque-Bera normality test and Ramsey model establishment error statistics in regression. The figures in parentheses reflect p-probability values Coefficient of ECt-1 (error correction terms) is -0,72 in Table 7. This coefficient is negative and meaningful like expected. If coefficient‘s signs of error correction terms is negative, model is convergences to long term balance level. If this sign of coefficient is negative, deviations happen in short term between series is convergences to long term balance value. If this sign of coefficient is positive, not convergences to long term balance value (Narayan ve Smyth 2006). Therefore error correction of model is works. Although capital movements impact on economic growth, like long term effect, is positive and according with theoritical expectation, statistically insignificant. Tablo 7‘deki sonuçlar incelendiğinde; hata düzeltme teriminin (EC) katsayısı -0,94 ve t istatistiği anlamlı çıkmıĢtır. Bu katsayı beklenildiği gibi negatif ve istatistikî olarak anlamlıdır. Dolayısıyla modelin hata düzeltme terimi çalıĢmaktadır. Yani, uzun dönemde birlikte hareket eden seriler arasında kısa dönemde meydana gelen sapmalar ortadan kalkmakta ve seriler tekrar uzun dönem denge iliĢkisine yaklaĢmaktadırlar. Dolaylı ve dolaysız vergiler, cari dönemde de gecikmeli dönemlerde de büyümeyi arttırıcı yönde ve istatistikî olarak anlamlı düzeyde etkilemektedir. Bu sonuçlar beklentilerimize ve iktisat teorisine uygundur. Dolaylı vergilerin büyümeyi dolaysız vergilerden az da olsa daha çok etkilediği görülmektedir. Result And Evaluation In this study, from the declaration of Republic to today‘s Turkey, the link between the tax income and the economical development is analysis in border test method. To understand whether tax income varieties have different effect on development, direct indirect taxes were analysied separately. In the cooperation analysis, it is seen that there is a co ordination between the direct and indirect income and economical development. That is, these series have to movement accordingly. So, it is though that the recreation analysis administered among the series shold give us reasonable results. 634 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo In long term analysis, it is seen that both the direct and indirect tax effect the development positively. In the result of long term analysis, it is seen that indirect taxes increase the economical development more than the direct taxes. This result is more suitable for our economical thought and expectations. In the short term analysis, the extra valve of correcting error term was seen negative and statically acceptable. This the correction of the model is working. It can be estimated that there is a balance in the long term series and the mis direction can be compensated in long term values. The direct and indirect taxes in the monetary term effect the development considerably. These results are suitable for our economical theory. It is seen that the direct taxes effect the development slightly more than the indirect taxes. This is little different from our economical literature. As seen from this study, the taxing policy, one of the most important part of economical policy, if used in a suitable condition, is one of the major means of development. In order to see the Country developing in the long term, it should be better to emphasize on the indirect taxes instead of direct taxes. Because there is on unsuitable part of direct taxes for the economy. To decrease the V.A.T Value Added Tax in the common consuming goods will enable the low and middle-income society to have and consume more properties. This will also decrease tha gap between classes, decrease the clashes among classes. Ġt will also help to balance the income and increase the welfare of the country. References Anastassiou, T. ve Dritsaki, C. (2005), ―Tax Revenues and Economic Growth: An Emprical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis‖, Journal of Social Sciences 2 s. 99-104. Bulutoğlu, Kenan (1970); Türk Vergi Sistemi, 3. Baskı, Ġstanbul, s. 341. Demircan, Esra S. (2003), ―Vergilendirmenin Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kalkınmaya Etkisi‖, Erciyes Üniversitesi Ġktisadi ve Ġdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 21, Temmuz- Aralık s.97-116. Durkaya, M. ve Ceylan, S. (2006),―Vergi Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme‖, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 50 s.79-87. Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. A. (1979), ―Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root‖, Journal of the American Statistical Association , 74 s. 427-431. Eker, A., Altay, A. ve M. Sakal, (1996), Maliye Politikası, Takav Matbaacılık, Ġzmir. Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, 1 rd edition, Wiley, New York. Enders, W. (1996), Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song Inc. Engle, R. and Granger, C. W. (1987),―Co-Integration and Error Correction: Represention, estimation and Testing‖, Econometrica, 55(2) s. 251 – 276. Engen, Eric M., Jonathan Skinner, (1992) ―Fiscal Policy And Economic Growth,‖ NBER Working Paper No. 4223. Engen E. M. ve Skinner J. (1996), ―Taxation and Economic Growth‖, NBER Working <http://www.nber.org/papers/w5826> Paper No 5826, Gujarati, D, N. (1999), Basic Econometrics, Mc Graw Hill, Literatür Yayıncılık, 3 rd edition, Ġstanbul. Gül Ekrem, Kenan BarıĢ(2009), ―AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye‘de Vergi Gelirleri ile Ekonomik Büyüme ĠliĢkisi: 1980 – 2008‖, 1.Uluslararası Davraz Kongresi, 24-27 Eylül, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Isparta. Kamas, L. and Joyce, J. P.(1993), ―Money, Income and Prices Under Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from Causality Tests and VARs‖, Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(4) s. 747-768. King R. G. ve Rebelo S. (1990), ―Pulic Policy and Economic Growth: Devoloping Neoclassical Implications‖, Journal of Political Economy 98:5, s.126-150. 635 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Kneller, Richard, Michael Bleaney and Norman Gemmell, (1999), ―Growth, Public Policy and the Government Budget Constraint: Evidence from OECD Countries,‖ Discussion Paper No.98/14. Leibfritz, W., J. Thornton and A. Bibbee (1997), "Taxation and Economic Performance", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 176, OECD Publishing. Mendoza, Enrique G., Gian Milesi- Ferretti, Patrick Asea, (1997),―On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger‘s superneutrality conjecture‖, Journal of Public Economics. Narayan, P. and Narayan, S. (2004), ―Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for Fiji in a Cointegration Framework‖, Economic Modelling, 22 s.423-438. Pesaran, M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001), ―Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships‖, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 s.289-326. Razin A. ve Yuen C. W. (1995), ―Capital Income Taxation and Long Run Growth: New Perspectives‖, Paper No 5028, <http://www.nber.org/papers/w5028> NBER Working Roubini N. ve Milesi-Feretti G. M. (1994), ―Taxation and Endegenous Growth in Open Economies‖,NBER Working Paper No 4881, <http://www.nber.org/papers/w4881> Roubini ve Milesi-Feretti G. M. (1995), ―Growth Effect of Income and Consumption Taxes: Positive and Normative Analyses‖, NBER Working Paper No 5317, <http://www.nber.org/papers/w5317> Solow, R. M. (1956), ―A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth‖,Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.70, s. 65-94. Temiz, Dilek(2008), ―Türkiye'de Vergi Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme ĠliĢkisi: 1960-2006 Dönemi‖, 2. Ulusal Ġktisat Kongresi, 20-22 ġubat 2008, DEÜ ĠĠBF Ġktisat Bölümü, Ġzmir. Turan, Taner, (2008), ―Maliye Politikası Araçlarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri‖,SayıĢtay Dergisi,Sayı:69, NisanHaziran. Yılmaz, Hakan (1996); "Türkiye'de Vergi Yapısı ve 1980'den Sonra Sektörel Vergi Yüklerinin GeliĢimi" Uzmanlık Tezi - Devlet Planlama TeĢkilatı Ġktisadi Sektörler ve Koordinasyon Genel Müdürlüğü. Proje, Yatırımları Değerlendirme ve Analiz Dairesi, Ankara. 636 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 245 Title A name given to the resource The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Tax Revenue: Bounds Testing Author Author MERCAN, Mehmet GÖÇER, İsmet BULUT, Şahin DAM, M. Metin Abstract A summary of the resource. Taxes are one of the most important sources of finance; moreover they are able to have various impacts on chief indicators of economy. However, taxes may have negative as well as positive impacts. The relationship between economic growth and tax revenue in Turkish economy has been studied in this survey. In the survey, the existence of relationship between series and cointegration as well as long and short term links have been studied through ARDL bounds testing and it was observed that series moved together in the long term. In the long term analysis, a relationship between indirect and direct taxes with economic growth has a meaningful and positive relationship. It was found out that direct taxes effect bigger than indirect taxes. In the short term analysis, the coefficient of vector error correction model was signed negative and statistically meaningful. This means that the deviation, which took place in the short term between series which moved together in the long term, has disappeared and series came close to each other. Again, both types of taxes in the analysis of short-term growth is positive and statistically significant influenced, besides in the short term analysis it was observed that indirect taxes effect bigger than direct taxes. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2010-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/76e22cdf20b6e9f79192282129a87399.pdf 50ce589bba018271bfbea37fe046cfbf PDF Text Text 2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Tax Revenue: Bounds Testing Mehmet MERCAN Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi mmercan@adu.edu.tr Ġsmet GÖÇER Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi igocer@adu.edu.tr ġahin BULUT Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi sbulut@adu.edu.tr M. Metin DAM Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi metindam@hotmail.com Abstract : Taxes are one of the most important sources of finance; moreover they are able to have various impacts on chief indicators of economy. However, taxes may have negative as well as positive impacts. The relationship between economic growth and tax revenue in Turkish economy has been studied in this survey. In the survey, the existence of relationship between series and cointegration as well as long and short term links have been studied through ARDL bounds testing and it was observed that series moved together in the long term. In the long term analysis, a relationship between indirect and direct taxes with economic growth has a meaningful and positive relationship. It was found out that direct taxes effect bigger than indirect taxes. In the short term analysis, the coefficient of vector error correction model was signed negative and statistically meaningful. This means that the deviation, which took place in the short term between series which moved together in the long term, has disappeared and series came close to each other. Again, both types of taxes in the analysis of short-term growth is positive and statistically significant influenced, besides in the short term analysis it was observed that indirect taxes effect bigger than direct taxes. Key words: Economic Growth, Indirect and direct taxes revenue, Bounds testing. JEL Sınıflandırması: E62, H21, H27, O49. 1. Introduction Tax is the transfer of the sources without any provision and under the rules of political force from the economical deparments of the goverment in order to provide the expenses of the puclic facilities (Temiz, 2008). Throughout the history countries have provided the income they need to act their basic functions by collecting taxes.At the same time tax policy is used for the economic and social purposes like allocation for sources through increasing internal savings,increasing economic growth of the country, providing price stability and controling the production and consumption level indirectly. Tax incomes are one of the most essential sources to administer the public facilities.In order to provide social security services,state investments and the other public expenses the goverment will either collect taxes or get into the debt. Getting into debt is the last way to prefer for the countries. Taxes in an economic system may effect the amount of the goods and services produced and the income and prices of production factors directly or indirectly (Yılmaz, 1996). The taxes which have the capacity to effect directly 626 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo people‘s decisions to use for the labour, savings,investment and source can be effective on the economic growth via different channels.Especially for the developing economies analysing the relationship between the taxes that are the primary source for the public and the growth would contribute to form tax policies and improve some applications (Gül ve Kenar, 2009).Especially in developing countries today taxation policy which is an instrument for the financial policy is a very effective financial instrument (Eker vd., 1996:32). We can categorize the taxes in use today in three groups according to the characters of the event that caused for their use: The taxes about the incomes including income taxes, corporation taxes,etc;the taxes about expenses including income taxes based upon expenses,transaction and sale taxes and custom taxes,etc;the taxes about the propertiess and the transfer of the properties including general property taxes,real estate taxes,capital taxes,motor vehicle taxes (Temiz,2008). Also taxes can be categorized in some other forms as in rem-monetary,spesific-advolorem and directindirect taxes (Bulutoğlu,1970). Furthermore it is also common to categorize the taxes in two big classes as direct or indirect. While analysing the reflection of the taxes on the economic growth in recent studies, especially direct and indirect identification is used.This identification is also very essential to form good taxation systems. Direct taxes are the taxes collected from the individuals and the corporations according to their income level whose tax payer and payer is the same. In these taxes there is no possibility for the tax payers to reflect his tax obligation to the others. Income taxes that the goverment collect from the factor incomes (interest, fee, profit, annuity) and taxes on the properties and corporation taxes are the example for the direct taxes (Turan,2008). On the other hand indirect taxes are the taxes resulted from the use of goods and services.Everybody using the taxable goods and services pay the tax at the same percentage however income they have.In these taxes the tax payer and its payer is different. The Value Added Tax and the excies tax are in the group of indirect taxes. (Temiz,2008). The situation desired in the taxation policies is to provide most of the tax collection by the direct taxes.These taxes mostly support the economic growth. However, indirect taxes can contribute to the economic growth like direct taxes if they are used suitable for economic structure of the country,too. Economic growth expresses the increase of the real national income in the length of time.In developed or especially developing countries economic growth has a special importance. There are many theories in this issue.Economic growth theories are analysed in terms of their factors,qualities and characters that have effects on the economic growth. In this context economic growth theories mostly major on the matters of capital accumulation,technical improvement and population increase.In an economy there are two commonly approved approaches about the economic growth rate. These are Harrod-Domar and Neo-classic Harrod-Domar growth model founded by making Keynesyen balance model dinamic and based on Keynesyen hypothesis actracted many attentions in the post-war years. Harrod-Domar model suggests the idea that growth rate is determined by the capital accumulation.In this case it can be possible for the goverment to realize the target growth rate by intervening the economy via the financial policy instruments or to remove the possible drifts on the long term growth rate.In this context the government on one hand has a great role to realize the economic growth with the public expenses,on the other hand it can use the taxation policy as an instrument for an increase in the total savings quantity of the economy.In this case it will be possible to increase the public savings,to encourage private investments and to resist against the structural instabilities which are derived from the economic growth and may cause a danger in growth.(Demircan, 2003). At the same time indirect taxes can help to reduce the consumption and encourage the savings in the economy by effecting the relative prices.So an indirect tax on the consumption goods can reduce the expenses on these goods by increasing the consumption cost and it can help these sources to be directed to the investments. (Temiz,2008). In this study the relationship between the indirect and direct tax incomes and the economic growth in Turkey is analysed with the limit test approach by the help of the annual information between 1924 and 2009 years.In the study,in second section following the introduction part,the sructure of the taxation in Turkey is analysed and third section including a summary of literature about the subject follows. Method and information set are in the fourth,analyse and empiric findings are in the fifith section.The study ends with a short conclusion and evaluation part. 2. Taxation Applications In Turkey While in developed countries especially rate of the direct taxes are high in tax incomes,in developing countries indirect taxes are high.In developed countries avarage %26 of total taxes , in developing countries more than %50 of taxes is composed of indirect taxes. The main reason for that is the application of indirect taxes is easier in spite of the difficulties in the application of the taxes collected on the income, the individuals are unaware about 627 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo these taxes and they response less to the tax implementors.The high rate of the indirect taxes in developing countries is closely related to the economic growth.Since the taxation systems are not exactly efficient in these countries, indirect taxes are emphasized.(Temiz,2008). When the improvement of indirect and direct taxes are analysed in Turkey a great and fast change stand out in the composition of the direct and indirect taxes in total tax incomes especially post-1980. While the indirect tax rate is %36 in 1980,this rate went up to % 64 when we were in 2009. It can be said that the taxes collected from goods and services like value added tax and excise tax have an essential role in total tax incomes in the increase of indirect taxes. Especially after the economic crisis in 1994 in Turkey the rate of indirect taxes in total taxes increased an this rate rised until %69.(Graphic 1).After economic crisis and The Marmara Earthquake in 1999 some temporary taxes became permanent and this was effective on this rise. While 71 Billion TL of tax (%36)of the total 196 Billion TL of tax collected in 2009 in Turkey is consisted of direct taxes, the rest of 125 Billions of TL(%64)of tax is consisted of indirect taxes. This shows we are very far away from the ideal porsion rate between direct and indirect taxes. Graphic: 1 The Portion of Direct and Indirect Taxes in Tax Incomes in Turkey 80 70 60 50 Direct Dolaysız Tax 40 Vergi Dolaylı İndirect Tax 30 Vergi 20 10 0 Source: Income Directory Management (GĠB). 1923 1930 1937 1944 1951 1958 1965 1972 1979 1986 1993 2000 2007 One important point is that the rate of the tax incomes of the countries in the rate of gross national product.While this rate passes %40 in developed countries,it is %20 in developing countries.(Graphic 2). This rate is essential in showing how much public expenses are financed by the tax incomes and whether the countries need external loans or not. Graphic2: The Rate of Tax Incomes in the Rate of Gross National Product (%) 45 40 35 OECD OECD Total Toplam 30 OECD Amerika OECD OECD USA Pasifik 25 OECD Avrupa 20 OECD ABPasific 15 15 Türkiye 10 OECD Europe 5 EU 15 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 0 Turkey Source: OECD, Revenue Statistics of OECD Member Countries, Paris,2009. 628 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo 3. Literature There is a wide literature on the subject of the effects of the direct and indirect taxes on long term growth.In accordance with the Neo-classic growth model Solow (1956) supposes that taxation has no effect on long term growth. Most of the studies in accordance with the Internal growing model result direct and indirect taxes have a negative effect on the long term growth. It is accepted that indirect taxes have more effects on the gowth than the direct taxes. Marsden (1983),wanted to stress that as the tax rates increase it causes low growth. Skinner (1987), reached a similar result by using the rates of personal and institutional income taxes. King ve Rebelo (1990), observed about % 2 of decrease in growth per year when tax rates increased % 10.As a result in the study, he stated that in long term income taxes have a decreasing effect on the individual earnings,on the other hand Mendoza vd. (1997) stated that in theory it can be estimated that the changes in income taxes affect the investments and the growth but in practise the tax policy and the changes on composition of direct and indirect taxes is an uneffective instrument to effect the economical growth in long term. Easterly ve Rebelo (1992) who used an information set about 1970-1988 years for many developing countries concluded that two measurements about marginal income rates have a negative but unimportant effect on the individual consumption growth . Plosser (1992) stated that there is a negative relationship between avarage individual real growing rates and avarage tax rates on income and profits in OECD countries,while William Easterley ve Sergio Robelo (1993) stated that this negative relationship disappeared when the begining income stage was checked. Writers also stated that the countries applying low tax rates was more succesful in reaching a high growing speed than the countries applying high tax rates. Roubini and Milesi-Feretti (1994) searched the effects of income taxes in open economy on the economic growth in accordence with the internal growing models.They especially stressed on the effects of the taxation of the income on the pysical capital saving decision of private sector and increase of the allocations via individual capital savings.Writers concluded that allocation and pysical taxes have negative effects on the growth. In an another study Roubini and Milesi-Feretti (1995) searched the effects of income and consumption taxes in the process based on the pysical and individual capital savings. The results showed that in general taxation of factor incomes(individual and pysical capital) had decreasing effects on the growth.The effect of consumption taxes on the growth is determined to change according to the supply of labour flexibility and consequently free time preferances. Razin and Yuen (1995) searched the effects of taxation of capital income on the long term growth in accordence with the internal growing model which is open to the international capital movements and the population increase is considered as an internal variable. The results of the study containing G7 countries showed that in the case of whole capital movement, cuts on the capital taxes would cause a decrease on the individual income rates and growth. Engen ve Skinner (1992) who used an information set including 1970-1985 years about 107 countries stated that both expenses of the state and the taxation have strong and negative effects on the growth,it was estimated a 1.4 percent point decrease on long term growth by increasing the budget with 10 percent in balance on the expenses of the state and the taxation,the administritive structure of the tax system was also important on the evaluation of the effect of the taxation on the production , Ram‘s results were supported by the instrumental variables approach. Engen ve Skinner (1996) searhed the effects of a general taxation cut under the control of three approach on the long term growth.These approaches consists of a micro model containing investigation of historical time series for the USA, a stage regresion analysis, labour supply,investment demand and productivity boost. The result of the study show that taxation had a mid-staged effect on the long term growth. Leibfritz and the others (1997) stated that about a 10 percent point increase on the tax rates in the past 35 years could have decreased the OECD annual growth rates about ½ percent point,however this calculation had some defects to evaluate the effects of taxes on the economy so it was necessary to support these calculations with an another approach. Kneller and the others (1999) who studied weather the proofs in OECD countries are coherent with the estimates of the endogenic growing models anticipating that puclic expenses and the structure of the taxes could effect the stable growth rate by using an information set including 1970 and 1995 years about 22 OECD countries reached a fact that non-deforming taxation didn‘t decrease the growth but deforming taxation decreased the growth, productive state expenses increased the growth but non-productive expenses didn‘t increased the growth. 629 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Anastassiou and Dritsaki (2005)searched for the Greece economy the tax incomes,direct marginal tax rates and the relationship between savings-income rate and growth rate.In the study to search for the long term realtions Johansen koentegrasyon method,fort he short term relations Granger causility test was used.The proofs showed the existence of a long term relation between the variations in the study. In term of short term relations, it was found a one way casual relation from direct marginal tax rates and tax incomes to the growth. Durkaya ve Ceylan (2006) analised the realtionship between 1980–2004 years tax incomes and economical growth with Engle-Granger integration test and casuality test and figured out that there was a double sided realtion between direct taxes and growth,however there was no realtionship between indirect taxes and the growth. It was stated that if the tax increases to increase the tax incomes had been made upon the indirect taxes,the negative effect of the tax increase on the growth would have been decreased. It was also stated that the change of the current tax items from direct taxes to indirect taxes would make the same effect. In his study Demircan(2003)stated that there was a close relationship betweeen groth and economy policies and a growth and development in the country ecenomy was closely related with the income tax decreases. He stated that to work was important and the tax decreases which increase the production and national income would directly increase the gross national product rate,and also if there was a politic and economic stability in the state,the changes to reconstruct in tax conduction and mechanisms for taxing encouragement had positive effects on the growth and development.Also he stated that the direct taxes taken on expenses were both for providing the equality in taxes and they affected indirectly economic growth and development in terms of encouraging the savings by reducing the luxurious consumptions. 4. Data And Methods This survey covers 1924 and 2009. 3 variables have been used and all variables have been calculated in percentages. The variable vektör of the survey is: Yt=[DLIt, DSZt]. Y stands for Gross National Product (GNP), DLI indirect tax income and DSZ direct tax income. All data have been taken from the website of the Directorship of Income(www.gib.gov.tr). In this survey boundary test approach which was developed by Pesaran vd.(2001) has been used in order to study the effect of tax revenue over economic growth. This method is considered to be more usable when comperad to cointegration method developed by Engle-Granger. Series have to be stable in the first differnce in the EngleGranger and Johansen. Series can be in different stability levels in ARDL method. Another advantage of boundary test approach is that analysis can be made with only a few data. (Narayan and narayan, 2004:25) More over as the regresive variables included in analysis. The level and regressive values of independed veriables can be observed on depended variables. In boundary test apprach firstly whether series move together in long-term is analysized by means of ARDL cointegration method. Ġf there is conĢntegration relationship betwen series the coefficient and statistic of regression carried out with this serries will be meaningfull and reliable. Ġf relationship can be pointed out whit be serries lon an short term analysis are held by means of ARDL method. 5. Analysis And Empirical Findings 5.1. ADF Unit Root Test If time serries is not stable, medyan, variance and covariance changeble in time. Shocks take place in a term can effect the others and it becomes permanent. The analysis carried out in this case includs fake regression and F and t statistics loos their meaning (Gujarati, 1999:2.712). The stability levels of serries and unitroot test have been studied with ADF test. DF test is carried out based on three regression equation (Dickey and Fuller, 1979). Simple position: Yt  Yt 1  ut (1) Intercept: Yt   0  Yt 1  u (2) Trend and intercept: 630 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Yt   0  1 t  Yt 1  ut (3) As a result of this tests the DF statistic been compared Mac Kinnon crtitical values zero hypotesis is tested against the lternative hypotesis. Zero hypotesis showes that serries is not stable alternative hypotesis. Ġf error correction term is autocorrelated equation (3) is regulated as: m Y   0  1 t  Yt 1  i  Yt i ut (4) i 1 Here m stands for regression length and  stands for difference operator. Regression number depends on obtaining model without autocorrelation. A test which is carried out this way is called ADF test in short. Tests results obtained accordingly are shown in Table 1. Table 1: ADF Test Results Expanded for Dickey-Fuller Variables (ADF) Level Values 1. Difference Variables ADF sts.. Mac Kinnon %1 test values ADF sts. Mac Kinnon %1 test values G -1,83 -3,51 -8,40[2] -3,51 DLI -1,78 -3,52 -3,55[10] -3,52 DSZ -2,41 -3,51 -9,17[2] -3,51 Note:The values in [ ] points out teh number. By taking the lenght which Akaike is the lowest. Mac Kinnon test values pointed out without trend and intercept test values. In the Table 1 it is observed that all series I(1) when their first differences are taken. 5.2. Co-Integration Test The level values of many macroeconomic variables are not stable. If there is a co-integration relationship between series in other words if series move together in the long term, a fake regretion trouble will not be faced in an analysis to be carried out with level values(Pesaran etc, 2001:290;Gujarati 1999). However, the dynamic behaviors of variables moving together in the long term cause some deviations in the balance equation(Enders, 1996:151). This is one of the basic characteristic of co-integration variables and plays an important part in the short term dynamic. The dynamic model appearing along with this process is called error correction model(Enders, 1995: 365). An unrestricted error correction model is setup so that boundary test approach can be applied. (unrestricted error correction model: UECM) This model can be applied to our survey as fallows: m m i 1 i 0 m Gt   0   1i Gt i   2i DLIt i   3i DSZt i  4Gt 1  i 0  5 DLIt 1   6 DSZt 1  ut (5) Here, m; stands for optimum length, ∆ stands for difference operator, ut stands for error correction term, those which are given with other letter abbreviation stands fort he meanings in variable definitions. In this survey optimum lenght has been determined by means of Akaike Criterion. According to Kamas ve Joyce (1993) There musn‘t be restpective connection error terns of optimum laght lend so that the test can give healthy result. If there is autcorolation in the lag lenght which akaike criteria lowest. One has to next lag. The test result of lag lenght are presented in table 2. Maksimum lag lenght is 4 since the data in this survey is annual. m 1* 2 3 4 Table 2: The lag length is point out for boundary test AIC LM Test 8,217 0,69 8,295 0,47 8,246 0,04 8,287 0,19 631 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo The optiumum lag length determined as a one in the table 2.In this lag length hasn‘t aoutocorolation. After lag length determined it passed testing process cointegration relation ship between variables. In boundary cointegration relationship between values is made by mines of testing ziro hypotesis. (H0:α4=α5=α6=0) Zero hypotesis accept or reject is determinated with F test. Calculate value contrasted table conpered and contrast min and max value in Pesseran etc 2001 table. In the fisrt case if calculated F statistic value lover than min critic value. It is decided that there is coengration relation between series. In the second case if calculated F statistic value in between max and min critice value no definite commend can be made. In this case must be tried alternative cointegration methots. Finaly f calculated F statistic value bigger than table max critic it is decidet that there is cointegration relationship between serious. In this study unrestricted error correction model is estimate to lag length and calculated F statistic. Results given in table 3. For testing H0 calculated F statistic value compared with critic value which taken Pesaran etc 2001 in table 3. This critic values given fort 2 independed variable and mining full %1. Table 3: Boundary Test Results k F Calculated Min Max 2 14,20 5,15 6,36 Note: k stands for variable number. Critical values are extracted from Table CI (iii) in Pesaran etc. It is observed that calculated F statistics is higher than utmost critical value. In this case H0 hypothesis is denied and it is concluded that there is a co-integration relationship between variables. Since the existence of cointegration relationship between series is remarked, ARDL models started to be estimated to search the long and short term relationships between variables. 5.3 Long Term Analysis ARDL model which is used in order to analyse long term relations is formulated as: m n p i 1 i 0 i 0 Gt   0  1iGt i  2i DLIt i  3i DSZt i  ut (6) Here m, n, p is length and determined with AIC. This transaction has been carried out with the method that Kamas and Joyce(1993) proposed in their causality analyses so as to determine length. Therefore; first of all, regression according to dependent variables‘ own regressive values is made and the length of the whit out autocorelation model which gives the lowest AIC value. Then, regression models were formed by keeping the identified length of the dependent variable stable and all possible regressions of foreign direct investment variable which is the first independent variable and the regressive number of independent variables was found by taking AIC values into consideration. Optimum regression number was obtained by repeating similar transactions for other variables. As a result of the transaction carried out, it was decided that ARDL(4,1,4) was the long term ARDL model to be estimated and results are presented in table 4. The Lag Length determine for The Long Term Boundary Test m AIC LM n AIC LM p AIC (G) Test (DLI) Test (DSZ) 0 0 8,710 0,00 0 8,382 1 8,889 0,83 1 8,262 1* 8,600 0,60 2 8,925 0,11 2 8,621 0,94 2 8,286 3 8,900 0,17 3 8,643 0,14 3 8,309 4 8,662 0,23 4* 8,875 0,99 4* 8,244 LM Test 0,00 0,93 0,61 0,01 0,25 The estimate results of long term ARDL(4,1,4) and long term coefficients calculated based on the results mentioned are available in table 5. 632 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Table 5: The results of Estimated ARDL (4,1,4) Model and The Long Term Coefficients Variables Coefficient t-statistical c 0.980880 0.400290 Gt-1 -0.003891 -0.027863 Gt-2 -0.092723 -0.723156 Gt-3 -0.004752 -0.042695 Gt-4 -0.122843 -1.233238 DLIt 0.323505 3.733284 DLIt-1 0.131856 1.405338 DSZt 0.276303 4.966621 DSZt-1 0.208335 3.236775 DSZt-2 -0.025281 -0.367004 DSZt-3 0.016428 0.258477 DSZt-4 0.156683 2.534998 The Long Term Coefficient DLI 0,371963 4,251 DSZ 0,461113 4,094 c 0,801235 0,401 Diagnosis Tests R2=0.82 2BGAB(2 )=1,588(0.21) 2 2WDV=0,309(0.99) R =0.79 F ist.=29,58(0,00) 2JBN=24,78(0.00) DW=1,84 2RRMKH(1)=0,13(0.71) Note: Here, 2BGAB, 2WDV, 2JBN and 2RRMKH are respectively Breusch-Godfrey successive dependence, White changing variance, Jarque-Bera normality test and Ramsey model establishment error statistics in regression. The figures in parentheses reflect p-probability values. Taking the results in table 5 into consideration, both direct and indirect taxes increase economic growth and affect it statistically meaningfully. Dolaysız vergilerin büyümeyi, dolaylı vergilerden daha çok arttırdığı görülmektedir. 5.4. Kısa Dönem Analizi Short term relation between variables again investigated by means of ARDL Error Correction Model based on boundary test approach. ARDL model which is used in order to analyse short term relations is formulated as: m n p i 1 i 0 i 0 Gt   0  1ECt 1   2i Gt i  3i DLIt i  2i DSZt i  ut (7) Here ECt-1 is error correction terms and it stands for one term lagged of error terms series which it is obtained from long term relationship. Coefficient for this variable is point out duration of sort term deviation. If this sign of coefficient is negative, deviations happen in short term between series is convergences to long term balance value. If this sign of coefficient is positive, not convergences to long term balance value. In this model lag length of veriables determineted just like long term. As a result of the transaction carried out, it was decided that ARDL(5.1.0.0.0) was the short term ARDL model to be estimated and results are presented in Table 6. Table 6: Determination of Lag Length for short Term Boundary Test m AIC LM n AIC LM p AIC (∆G) Testi (∆DLI) Testi (∆DSZ) 0 0 8,893 0,28 0 8,633 1 9,002 0,58 1 8,790 0,12 1 8,422 2 8,939 0,33 2 8,428 2* 8,745 0,44 3 8,769 0,05 3 8,413 3* 8,912 0,77 4 8,927 0,31 4 8,783 0,02 4* 8,271 633 LM Testi 0,05 0,01 0,41 0,003 0,50 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Tablo 6‘da da görüldüğü üzere, tahmin edilecek kısa dönem ARDL modelinin ARDL(3,2,4) modeli olduğu sonucuna ulaĢılmıĢtır. ARDL(3,2,4) modeli tahmin edilmiĢ ve kısa dönem tahmin sonuçları Tablo 7‘de verilmiĢtir. Table 7: The Results of ARDL (3.2.4) Model DeğiĢken Katsayı t-istatistiği c -0.100249 -0.064078 0.043531 0.212927 Gt-1 -0.030741 -0.191601 Gt-2 0.009492 0.079344 Gt-3 DLIt 0.292074 3.742568 0.100524 0.937896 DLIt-1 -0.033611 -0.398041 DLIt-2 DSZt 0.282694 5.472546 0.227042 2.792811 DSZt-1 -0.018289 -0.187475 DSZt-2 0.038494 0.497487 DSZt-3 DSZt-4 0.187336 3.517646 ECt-1 -0.946504 -3.807904 Tanısal Testler R2=0,64 2BGAB(2 )=0,94(0,39) 2WDV=0,31(0,99) R 2 =0,58 DW=1,99 2JBN=24,65(0,00) F=10,42(0,00) 2RRMKH(1)=4,76(0,03) Note: Here, 2BGAB, 2WDV, 2JBN and 2RRMKH are respectively Breusch-Godfrey successive dependence, White changing variance, Jarque-Bera normality test and Ramsey model establishment error statistics in regression. The figures in parentheses reflect p-probability values Coefficient of ECt-1 (error correction terms) is -0,72 in Table 7. This coefficient is negative and meaningful like expected. If coefficient‘s signs of error correction terms is negative, model is convergences to long term balance level. If this sign of coefficient is negative, deviations happen in short term between series is convergences to long term balance value. If this sign of coefficient is positive, not convergences to long term balance value (Narayan ve Smyth 2006). Therefore error correction of model is works. Although capital movements impact on economic growth, like long term effect, is positive and according with theoritical expectation, statistically insignificant. Tablo 7‘deki sonuçlar incelendiğinde; hata düzeltme teriminin (EC) katsayısı -0,94 ve t istatistiği anlamlı çıkmıĢtır. Bu katsayı beklenildiği gibi negatif ve istatistikî olarak anlamlıdır. Dolayısıyla modelin hata düzeltme terimi çalıĢmaktadır. Yani, uzun dönemde birlikte hareket eden seriler arasında kısa dönemde meydana gelen sapmalar ortadan kalkmakta ve seriler tekrar uzun dönem denge iliĢkisine yaklaĢmaktadırlar. Dolaylı ve dolaysız vergiler, cari dönemde de gecikmeli dönemlerde de büyümeyi arttırıcı yönde ve istatistikî olarak anlamlı düzeyde etkilemektedir. Bu sonuçlar beklentilerimize ve iktisat teorisine uygundur. Dolaylı vergilerin büyümeyi dolaysız vergilerden az da olsa daha çok etkilediği görülmektedir. Result And Evaluation In this study, from the declaration of Republic to today‘s Turkey, the link between the tax income and the economical development is analysis in border test method. To understand whether tax income varieties have different effect on development, direct indirect taxes were analysied separately. In the cooperation analysis, it is seen that there is a co ordination between the direct and indirect income and economical development. That is, these series have to movement accordingly. So, it is though that the recreation analysis administered among the series shold give us reasonable results. 634 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo In long term analysis, it is seen that both the direct and indirect tax effect the development positively. In the result of long term analysis, it is seen that indirect taxes increase the economical development more than the direct taxes. This result is more suitable for our economical thought and expectations. In the short term analysis, the extra valve of correcting error term was seen negative and statically acceptable. This the correction of the model is working. It can be estimated that there is a balance in the long term series and the mis direction can be compensated in long term values. The direct and indirect taxes in the monetary term effect the development considerably. These results are suitable for our economical theory. It is seen that the direct taxes effect the development slightly more than the indirect taxes. This is little different from our economical literature. As seen from this study, the taxing policy, one of the most important part of economical policy, if used in a suitable condition, is one of the major means of development. In order to see the Country developing in the long term, it should be better to emphasize on the indirect taxes instead of direct taxes. Because there is on unsuitable part of direct taxes for the economy. To decrease the V.A.T Value Added Tax in the common consuming goods will enable the low and middle-income society to have and consume more properties. This will also decrease tha gap between classes, decrease the clashes among classes. Ġt will also help to balance the income and increase the welfare of the country. References Anastassiou, T. ve Dritsaki, C. (2005), ―Tax Revenues and Economic Growth: An Emprical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis‖, Journal of Social Sciences 2 s. 99-104. Bulutoğlu, Kenan (1970); Türk Vergi Sistemi, 3. Baskı, Ġstanbul, s. 341. Demircan, Esra S. (2003), ―Vergilendirmenin Ekonomik Büyüme ve Kalkınmaya Etkisi‖, Erciyes Üniversitesi Ġktisadi ve Ġdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 21, Temmuz- Aralık s.97-116. Durkaya, M. ve Ceylan, S. (2006),―Vergi Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme‖, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 50 s.79-87. Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. A. (1979), ―Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root‖, Journal of the American Statistical Association , 74 s. 427-431. Eker, A., Altay, A. ve M. Sakal, (1996), Maliye Politikası, Takav Matbaacılık, Ġzmir. Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, 1 rd edition, Wiley, New York. Enders, W. (1996), Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series, John Willey and Song Inc. Engle, R. and Granger, C. W. (1987),―Co-Integration and Error Correction: Represention, estimation and Testing‖, Econometrica, 55(2) s. 251 – 276. Engen, Eric M., Jonathan Skinner, (1992) ―Fiscal Policy And Economic Growth,‖ NBER Working Paper No. 4223. Engen E. M. ve Skinner J. (1996), ―Taxation and Economic Growth‖, NBER Working <http://www.nber.org/papers/w5826> Paper No 5826, Gujarati, D, N. (1999), Basic Econometrics, Mc Graw Hill, Literatür Yayıncılık, 3 rd edition, Ġstanbul. Gül Ekrem, Kenan BarıĢ(2009), ―AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye‘de Vergi Gelirleri ile Ekonomik Büyüme ĠliĢkisi: 1980 – 2008‖, 1.Uluslararası Davraz Kongresi, 24-27 Eylül, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, Isparta. Kamas, L. and Joyce, J. P.(1993), ―Money, Income and Prices Under Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from Causality Tests and VARs‖, Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(4) s. 747-768. King R. G. ve Rebelo S. (1990), ―Pulic Policy and Economic Growth: Devoloping Neoclassical Implications‖, Journal of Political Economy 98:5, s.126-150. 635 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo Kneller, Richard, Michael Bleaney and Norman Gemmell, (1999), ―Growth, Public Policy and the Government Budget Constraint: Evidence from OECD Countries,‖ Discussion Paper No.98/14. Leibfritz, W., J. Thornton and A. Bibbee (1997), "Taxation and Economic Performance", OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 176, OECD Publishing. Mendoza, Enrique G., Gian Milesi- Ferretti, Patrick Asea, (1997),―On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger‘s superneutrality conjecture‖, Journal of Public Economics. Narayan, P. and Narayan, S. (2004), ―Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for Fiji in a Cointegration Framework‖, Economic Modelling, 22 s.423-438. Pesaran, M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001), ―Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships‖, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 s.289-326. Razin A. ve Yuen C. W. (1995), ―Capital Income Taxation and Long Run Growth: New Perspectives‖, Paper No 5028, <http://www.nber.org/papers/w5028> NBER Working Roubini N. ve Milesi-Feretti G. M. (1994), ―Taxation and Endegenous Growth in Open Economies‖,NBER Working Paper No 4881, <http://www.nber.org/papers/w4881> Roubini ve Milesi-Feretti G. M. (1995), ―Growth Effect of Income and Consumption Taxes: Positive and Normative Analyses‖, NBER Working Paper No 5317, <http://www.nber.org/papers/w5317> Solow, R. M. (1956), ―A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth‖,Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.70, s. 65-94. Temiz, Dilek(2008), ―Türkiye'de Vergi Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme ĠliĢkisi: 1960-2006 Dönemi‖, 2. Ulusal Ġktisat Kongresi, 20-22 ġubat 2008, DEÜ ĠĠBF Ġktisat Bölümü, Ġzmir. Turan, Taner, (2008), ―Maliye Politikası Araçlarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri‖,SayıĢtay Dergisi,Sayı:69, NisanHaziran. Yılmaz, Hakan (1996); "Türkiye'de Vergi Yapısı ve 1980'den Sonra Sektörel Vergi Yüklerinin GeliĢimi" Uzmanlık Tezi - Devlet Planlama TeĢkilatı Ġktisadi Sektörler ve Koordinasyon Genel Müdürlüğü. Proje, Yatırımları Değerlendirme ve Analiz Dairesi, Ankara. 636 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 301 Title A name given to the resource The Relationship Between Economic Growth And Tax Revenue: Bounds Testing Author Author MERCAN, Mehmet GÖÇER, İsmet BULUT, Şahin DAM, M. Metin Abstract A summary of the resource. Taxes are one of the most important sources of finance; moreover they are able to have various impacts on chief indicators of economy. However, taxes may have negative as well as positive impacts. The relationship between economic growth and tax revenue in Turkish economy has been studied in this survey. In the survey, the existence of relationship between series and cointegration as well as long and short term links have been studied through ARDL bounds testing and it was observed that series moved together in the long term. In the long term analysis, a relationship between indirect and direct taxes with economic growth has a meaningful and positive relationship. It was found out that direct taxes effect bigger than indirect taxes. In the short term analysis, the coefficient of vector error correction model was signed negative and statistically meaningful. This means that the deviation, which took place in the short term between series which moved together in the long term, has disappeared and series came close to each other. Again, both types of taxes in the analysis of short-term growth is positive and statistically significant influenced, besides in the short term analysis it was observed that indirect taxes effect bigger than direct taxes. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2010-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/573343de93bd5e5816a8ad7fbc1fe74d.pdf ac1f797cc8362f28da9a773fce71feb7 PDF Text Text Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics The relationship between english learning achievement and perceived self-efficacy of the first-year studentsat Naresuan University Nattaporn Luangpipat & Watana Padgate Naresuan University, Thailand Submitted: 07.04.2014. Accepted: 04.11.2014. Abstract This study aims to explore the relationship between English learning achievement and students’ perceived self-efficacy, and the possible factors of the students’ perceived self-efficacy. Some 370 first-year students at Naresuan University were randomly selected to fill in the questionnaires while grades representing students’ learning achievement were collected from the instructors.The collected data was analyzed by Pearson’s Correlation and Multiple Linear Regression. The result of the study showed that there was a statistically significant relationship between English learning achievement and students’ perceived self-efficacy. The factor related to students’ perceived self-efficacy was mainly from vicarious experience, which was somewhat contradictory to the findings ofearlier studies (Bandura, 1986; Kiran&Sungur, 2012; Lent, Brown et al., 1996; Luzzoet al., 1999; Pajares, Johnson &Usher, 2007) Hopefully, the result of this studycan be utilized to improve student performance in English learning through a better understanding selfefficacy and its related factors. Keywords: Self-efficacy, English learning, Learning achievement Introduction Thailand, as a non-native English-speaking country, has recognized the importance of English by means of introducing the English language in primary, secondary, vocational and tertiary institutions for several decades (Anyadubalu, 2010).However, according to an English Proficiency Index (EFI) survey in 2011 by Education First, a leading international education company, Thai students’ English proficiency is in a ‘very low’ group, ranked 42 out of 44 non-native English-speaking countries (Prasertsuk, 2012). Moreover, English is still the least favorite subject among Thai students (Kaewmala, 2012). According to Kaewmala (2012), most Thai students feel 207 �The relationship between english learning achievement and perceived self-efficacy of the first-year studentsat Naresuan University about an English class the same way they feel about a dentist appointment;consequently, it is not so easyfor them to do well at what they are afraid of. A bigger problem than their fear of English is their belief that they are poor English learners. Students are always hammered as ‘not good enough’ learners (Jabbarifar, 2011); therefore, they tend to believe it is difficult for them to succeed in learning English. Self-efficacy refers to individuals’ beliefs about their ability to accomplish a specific task (Maddux 1995 cited in Weaver, 2008). According to Bandura’s work on learning theory in the early 1960’s, self-efficacy has been denoted as a person’s beliefs concerning his or her completion of a task and his or her perceived competency level in performing the task (Bandura, 1986) – or, as simply concluded by Jabbarifar (2011), as a matter ofthe learners’ believing “I can” or “I can’t”. Although many studies (Jabbarifar, 2011; Mahyuddin, et al, 2006; Tilfarlioglu&Cinkara, 2009) have explored students’ self-efficacy in areas such as math, science, and sports, one domain has been surprisingly neglected is language learning (Hsieh, 2004). Since language learning has different characteristics from other types of learning, students’ self-efficacy in learning a language may vary from other areas and may work differently in influencing their achievement (Gardner, 1982). Moreover, this topic hasrarely been researched in Thailand, especially at the university level. In order to make a difference in students who learn English, a positive self-efficacy in learning a language, particularly English, should be fostered (Fukami, 2002). Also, the experience of failure or success should be adjusted as a factor to raise students’ self-efficacy instead of decreasing it. Thus, the relationship between English learning achievement and self-efficacy among the first-year students at Naresuan University should be investigated. Furthermore, the factors that go into creating the students’ self-efficacy should be studied in order to assist students in generating the ‘can do’ belief and mitigate the ‘can’t do’ belief. The purpose of this research was to examine the relationship between English learning achievement and perceived self-efficacy among the first-year students at Naresuan University, and to investigate the factors related to the students’ perceived self-efficacyin an attempt to answer the following questions: 1. 2. 208 Is there any relationship between English learning achievement and perceived self-efficacy among the first-year students at Naresuan University? What are the factors related to the students’ perceived self-efficacy? �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics Literature Review Self-Efficacy Theory Bandura (1977) formally defined self-efficacy as a person’s belief about their ability to organize and execute courses of action necessary to achieve a goal. However, selfefficacy was considered a differentiated set of self-beliefs specific to different areas of functioning, e.g. social self-efficacy or academic self-efficacy, since no person can feel competent at all tasks (Bandura, 1997; Maddux, 1995cited in Weaver, 2008). The concept of self-efficacy as domain- or task-specific has been proven to be a better predictor of actual behavior than a general self-efficacy concept (Bandura, 1986, 1997; Multon, et al., 1991;Lent, Brown, et al., 1996). Sources of Self-efficacy According to Bandura (1997), there are four major sources affecting self-efficacy: mastery experience, vicarious experience, social persuasion, and physiological states. Mastery experience refers to the past experience of success and/or failure (Bandura 1986). Successes raise efficacy appraisals; repeated failures lower them(Bandura, 1997). Vicarious experiencehappens when people make judgments about their own capabilities by watching other people perform certain tasks, or simply say, ‘if they could do it, I could do it as well’ (Wikipedia, 2012). Social persuasion generally manifests as direct encouragement or discouragement from another person. Discouragement is generally more effective at decreasing a person's self-efficacy than encouragement is at increasing it (Wikipedia, 2012). Physiological statesare closely linked to arousal of the nervous system with various states (Wikipedia, 2012). Research Methodology Population and sample The population of the study comprised all first-year students who enrolled in theFundamental English course (00112), a compulsory subject for first-year students. 209 �The relationship between english learning achievement and perceived self-efficacy of the first-year studentsat Naresuan University These students, estimated at 3,890,were registered as students at Naresuan University in the 2013academic year. 370of the first-year students, estimated based on Taro Yamane (1976), were selected as thesample for the research to prevent the students’ self-efficacy from being influenced by other English-language courses in higher years of study. Research Instruments The students’ self-efficacy was measured by means of a questionnaire. The questionnaire includedquestions aboutthe students’ general information, their selfefficacy with respect to English language learning, and factors related to their selfefficacy. The students’ grades, as an indicator of the students’ English learning achievement, were collectedfrom their instructors in the Fundamental English course. Data Collection The sample group was asked to fill in the questionnaire before their Fundamental English mid-term examination in order to minimize the examination’s influenceon the students’physiological or physiological states. Then, the data from the questionnaire was analyzed. Data Analysis A quantitative design was chosen to analyze the data. The Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation was used to explore the relationship between English language achievement and students’ perceived self-efficacy. Multiple Linear Regression was used to describe the possible factor of the students’ self-efficacy. Resultand discussion Discussion One Research Question 1aimed to investigate whether there was any relationship between English learning achievement and perceived self-efficacy among the first-year students at Naresuan University. The result revealed apositive relationship between English language achievement and the students’ perceived self-efficacy, even though the degree of the relationship was rather low (r = .39). The result of the study was similar to that ofChemers et al., (2001), Mahyuddin, et al. (2006), Multon et al. (1991), andTilfarlioglu&Cinkara(2009). 210 �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics Chemers et al. (2001) identified self-efficacy as a significant predictor of academic performance (r = .34) while Mahyuddin, et al. (2006) found the significant positive correlations between several dimensions of self-efficacy and academic achievement in English language learning (r = 0.48). While Multon et al. (1991) showed a somewhat low relationship between self-efficacy and academic performance (r = .38), the study of Tilfarlioglu&Cinkara (2009) illustrated that the EFL students’ selfefficacy levelsand their EFL success measured by end-of-the-year GPA also yielded a significant correlation,but the degree of the relationship was fairly low (r= .37). It was noticed that the participants and research material of those studieswere similar to those used in this study. The participants were mostly the first-year undergraduate students from diverse majors and different English proficiency backgrounds. Furthermore, the questionnaire was used as the research instrument in those studies. The possible reasons for the rather low relationship between the students’ perceived self-efficacy and their English language-learning achievement could bethe research instruments,achievement evaluation, and students’ learning condition. The questionnaire might not bean adequate means ofassessing the students’ selfefficacy because self-efficacy is quite an individual construction. Also, grading was a considerable factor in different results, since the English Foundation Course comprised many aspects in evaluating the students’ learning achievement. The grade the students acquired might have been contaminated by other factors such as class participation, extra activities or a group project. Moreover, the participants were firstyear students; they might have been afraid or felt uncomfortable with the university educational system, which was new to them. As a result, they reported their selfefficacyas quite low, while the grades they received seem pretty positive compared to their perceptions. Discussion Two The purpose of the research question two was to examine the factors related to the students’ perceived self-efficacy. Vicarious experience seemed to be the only factor that had a statistically significant relationship with the students’ self-efficacy. The other factors, which were mastery experience (ME), social persuasion (S), and physiological states (PS), showed no statistical relationship with self-efficacy. This result contradicted the findings ofmany studies (Bandura, 1986; Kiran&Sungur, 2012; Lent, Brown et al., 1996; Luzzoet al., 1999; Pajares, Johnson & Usher, 2007) that identified mastery experience as the most powerful source. Bandura’s study (1986) suggested mastery experience the most powerful source of one’s self-efficacy since it involved students’ interpretation of their own past 211 �The relationship between english learning achievement and perceived self-efficacy of the first-year studentsat Naresuan University performance. Kiran&Sungur(2012) also implied that middleschool students’ selfefficacy was strongly informed by their mastery experiences. Lent, Brown et al. (1996) indicated that mastery experience was listed as the most influential source of self-efficacy, while Luzzo et al. (1999) reported that mastery experience significantly contributed to improvements in self-efficacy. Pajares, Johnson, &Usher (2007) also stated that mastery experience accounted for the greatest alteration in self-efficacy. However, the study’s results were supported by many other studies (Bentz, 2010; Pajares, 2002; Steven, et al., 2006; Usher &Pajares, 2006). Bentz (2010) demonstrated that although students’questionnaire responses appeared to favor mastery experience, when they were asked personally about their early experiences learning to speak Englishduring interviews, the dominant factor they mentioned was vicarious experience. They indicated that their learning occurred mostly during the time they spentwith friends and siblings. Friends, siblings, and similar-age cousins were identified as the primary drivers for building capacity in oral English acquisition; they also provided feedback and judgments about the subjects’ performance.Pajares (2002) stated that the effects of vicarious experience can powerfully influence a student’s self-efficacy beliefs whileStevens et al. (2006) reported that vicarious experience was a significant predictor of self-efficacy beliefs.Usher &Pajares (2006) also illustrated that vicarious experience was a significant predictor of self-efficacy. It can be assumed that the reason vicarious experience (VE) became the most significant factorrelated to the students’ self-efficacywas that the students considered their peers to be a reliable source. Since a group has power over its members(Newcomb, 1962), the data collection in classrooms, where the students shared similar experiences and sat in groups, might explain this result. Bandura (1997) and Pajares (2002) emphasized that vicarious experience could be the most influential factor when students havelimited experiences or are uncertain about their ability to accomplish a task. Given thatthe students in this study were between 17 and 19 years old, it is possible to assume that they had limited experience. Consequently, they might need a role model to evaluate themselves, and their peers were likely to be the most influential people. Implications and recommendations Implications for teaching and learning The motivation for this study partially stems from a desire to improve student performance in English language learning by better understanding self-efficacy. 212 �Journal of Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics Hopefully, the results of this study canbe widely beneficial in English-language education as well as other subjects. Jabbarifar’s study (2011)stated that positive self-efficacy was one of the major contributors to second-language success. Therefore, creating positive learning conditionscould helpdevelop constructive self-efficacy. Morris (2004) suggested thatteachersprovide more opportunities for students to receive encouraging mastery experience in learning. Morris (2004) also recommended that helpful vicarious learning, such as pair work or small-group work, should be introduced in class. Kiran&Sungur (2012) suggestedthat teachers provide students a scaffold so they could learn with their peers. Group work among students with diverse levels of English-language achievementshouldalso be introduced in the classroom, since the influence of other students can impact students’ perceptionsof themselves (Emmett, Hall, & McKenna, 2013). Recommendations for further studies This current study tried to explore the relationship between learning achievement and the students’ perceived self-efficacy, as well as the factors that make upself-efficacy. However, the results from quantitative research might not be sufficientto ensurenew sources of self-efficacy for students.Qualitative researchsuch as in-depth interviews or observations should be added, so that the factors behind student self-efficacy can be verified more accurately. Moreover, a longitudinal study should be conducted to see how an individual’sself-efficacy is constructed and how it changes over time. In addition, the factors related to student self-efficacy should be investigatedextensively in other demographic contexts in order to obtain a specific understanding of student self-efficacy and to provide greateropportunity to foster positive self-efficacy among students. References Anyadubalu, C. C. (2010). 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Innovative Higher Education, 28 (3). Newcomb, T.M. (1962). Student Peer-Group Influence. In Sanford, Nevitt (Ed), the American College: A Psychological and Social Interpretation of the Higher Learning, 469-488.Hoboken, NJ, US: John Wiley & Sons Inc. Retrieved March 18, 2014, from http://psycnet.apa.org/index.cfm?fa=buy.optionToBuy&uid=2006-10217013 Pajares, F. (2002). Overview of Social Cognitive Theory and of Self Efficacy.Retrieved February 15, 2014, from http://www.emory.edu/EDUCATION/mfp/eff.html. Pajares, F., Johnson, M. J., & Usher, E. L. (2007).Sources of writing self-efficacy beliefs of elementary, middle, and high school students.Research in the Teaching of English, 42, 104–120.Retrieved June 20, 2013, from http://sites.education.uky.edu/motivation/ files/2013/08/PajaresJohnsonUsherRTE2007.pdf. Prasertsuk, K. (2012). ASEAN insight: English skills and ASEAN. Bangkokbiznews. 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Sources of Academic and Self-Regulatory Efficacy Beliefs of Entering Middle School Students.Contemporary Educational Psychology, 31, 125-141. Wang, C. (2004). Self- regulated learning strategies and self-efficacy beliefs of children learning English as a second language. Doctoral dissertation, The Ohio State University. Retrieved June 20, 2013, from https://etd.ohiolink.edu/ap/0?0:APPLICATION_PROCESS%3DDOWNLO AD_ETD_SUB_DOC_ACCNUM:::F1501_ID:osu1091546670%2Cinline. Weaver, J. (2008). Effect on Self-efficacy on Motivation and Achievement among fifth grade Science students. Science Direct. Retrieved May 16, 2013, from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042811027467. Wikipedia. (2012). Self-efficacy. Retrieved http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-efficacy. 216 May 15, 2012 from � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2821 Title A name given to the resource The relationship between English learning achievement and perceived self-efficacy of the first-year students at Naresuan University Author Author Luangpipat, Nattaporn Padgate, Watana Abstract A summary of the resource. This study aims to explore the relationship between English learning achievement and students’ perceived self-efficacy, and the possible factors of the students’ perceived self-efficacy. Some 370 first-year students at Naresuan University were randomly selected to fill in the questionnaires while grades representing students’ learning achievement were collected from the instructors.The collected data was analyzed by Pearson’s Correlation and Multiple Linear Regression. The result of the study showed that there was a statistically significant relationship between English learning achievement and students’ perceived self-efficacy. The factor related to students’ perceived self-efficacy was mainly from vicarious experience, which was somewhat contradictory to the findings ofearlier studies (Bandura, 1986; Kiran&Sungur, 2012; Lent, Brown et al., 1996; Luzzoet al., 1999; Pajares, Johnson &Usher, 2007) Hopefully, the result of this studycan be utilized to improve student performance in English learning through a better understanding self-efficacy and its related factors. Keywords: Self-efficacy, English learning, Learning achievement Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015-04-07 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics,PE English https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/3d9714e87833183418b6372fbb76c79a.pdf 35cbc570b58d7bd26949b04c8d321cf6 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Relationship between Human Capital and Economic Growth in Post-1980 Period in Turkish Economy Ünzüle Kurt Ardahan University, Ardahan, Turkey unzulekurt17@gmail.com Endogenous growth theory is based on the idea that there are some factors in the growth process in economies that cannot be explained with human capital. Endogenous growth theory developed by Romer, contrary to the neo-classical growth theories explaining the economic growth with physical production factors, discusses that the human capital has an important place among the dynamics of economic growth. In the study, human capital factor, having a significant place in the growth process of today’s economies, is discussed as a human development index, and its effect on growth rate is analyzed for the period 1980-2011. According to the results of the analysis, a cointegration relationship was detected to be present between human development index and growth rate; however, no causality relationship was observed in the short term. Keywords: Endogenous Growth Theory, Human Capital, Economic Growth. 271 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1666 Title A name given to the resource The Relationship between Human Capital and Economic Growth in Post-1980 Period in Turkish Economy Author Author KURT, Unzule Abstract A summary of the resource. Endogenous growth theory is based on the idea that there are some factors in the growth process in economies that cannot be explained with human capital. Endogenous growth theory developed by Romer, contrary to the neo-classical growth theories explaining the economic growth with physical production factors, discusses that the human capital has an important place among the dynamics of economic growth. In the study, human capital factor, having a significant place in the growth process of today’s economies, is discussed as a human development index, and its effect on growth rate is analyzed for the period 1980-2011. According to the results of the analysis, a cointegration relationship was detected to be present between human development index and growth rate; however, no causality relationship was observed in the short term. Keywords: Endogenous Growth Theory, Human Capital, Economic Growth. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f0b81554c014a1ad32a7bcc4f575fd08.pdf c1c67b405cc0e8fc8f379faed8bf0914 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Relationship between Inventory and Financial Performance: Turkey Case H. Ali Ata University of Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turkey ata@gantep.edu.tr M. Fatih Buğan University of Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turkey mfbugan@gantep.edu.tr Yunus Kılıç University of Gaziantep, Gaziantep, Turkey ykilic@gantep.edu.tr Inventories, which are among working capital factors and have the least amount of liquidity, have an important effect on the financial performance of enterprises, especially in terms of productivity. Inventory management and determining of optimal inventory level have a vital role in the point of the productivity of firms’ operations especially for the firms which operate on manufacturing industry. This study has a vital importance because of several reasons. There are limited numbers of studies relevant to discrete components of inventory performance and financial performance in Turkey. This study is relevant to both inventory and finance departments of a firm. Cost of inventory and financing of these assets’ investment are important for financial managers. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between inventory and financial performance in manufacturing firms in Turkey. In this respect, financial statements of manufacturing firms are used between 2002 and 2011. Financial data of firms are obtained from the İstanbul Stock Exchange database. Raw material, work-in-process, finished goods and total inventory are taken as indicators of inventory performance. Then the ratios of these indicators to total sales are used in analysis. Gross profit to total sales and operating profit to total sales are used as indicator of financial performance. The regression analysis was employed by using financial ratios obtained from financial statements of firms within the scope of analysis. As a result, the relationship between total inventory performance and financial performance are explained. Besides this, the relationship between discrete types of inventory performance and financial performance are summarized in the results. Keywords: Operating Performance, Inventory Performance, Financial Performance, Raw Material, Work-In-Process, Finished Goods. 137 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1570 Title A name given to the resource The Relationship between Inventory and Financial Performance: Turkey Case Author Author ATA H., Ali BUGAN M., Fatih KILIC, Yunus Abstract A summary of the resource. Inventories, which are among working capital factors and have the least amount of liquidity, have an important effect on the financial performance of enterprises, especially in terms of productivity. Inventory management and determining of optimal inventory level have a vital role in the point of the productivity of firms’ operations especially for the firms which operate on manufacturing industry. This study has a vital importance because of several reasons. There are limited numbers of studies relevant to discrete components of inventory performance and financial performance in Turkey. This study is relevant to both inventory and finance departments of a firm. Cost of inventory and financing of these assets’ investment are important for financial managers. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between inventory and financial performance in manufacturing firms in Turkey. In this respect, financial statements of manufacturing firms are used between 2002 and 2011. Financial data of firms are obtained from the İstanbul Stock Exchange database. Raw material, work-in-process, finished goods and total inventory are taken as indicators of inventory performance. Then the ratios of these indicators to total sales are used in analysis. Gross profit to total sales and operating profit to total sales are used as indicator of financial performance. The regression analysis was employed by using financial ratios obtained from financial statements of firms within the scope of analysis. As a result, the relationship between total inventory performance and financial performance are explained. Besides this, the relationship between discrete types of inventory performance and financial performance are summarized in the results. Keywords: Operating Performance, Inventory Performance, Financial Performance, Raw Material, Work-In-Process, Finished Goods. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/2e4bc849c624d7f0c502543e578d3d3f.docx 6dcd6622f9a7fe1e2fb78b29bac68fbb https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d498416b19b0e277fdaf26395520eab8.pdf 091572023ac33d2725d7fdd0b3b4b46b PDF Text Text The Relationship between Iranian EFL learners’ Personality Traits and Cognitive Styles Masoumeh Rahimi Islamic Azad University/ Bushehr, Iran Key words: Personality Traits,Cognitive Styles, VAK typology,Modality model ABSTRACT As Modality model in learning styles suggests, learners are divided into three parts: visual, auditory, and kinesthetic. And according to personality model some learners are introvert and some extrovert. The relationship between these essential points in teaching process is very helpful both for foreign language learners and teachers to improve their learning and teaching and make the lessons more effective for themselves and also for curriculum. The purpose of the present study is to find the direct relationship between Iranian EFL learners’ Personality Traits and Cognitive Styles. The study considered 60 females’ participant, which were selected randomly at Zabansara English Language Institute in Bushehr, Iran. Nearly all the participants belonged to the age group of 13-16. They were all learning English at intermediate levels. Two research instruments were used to gather the needed data for this study: Eysenck Personality Inventory (EPI) and VAK learning styles test. Correlation Coefficient was used to analyze the collected data. The result suggested that there was significant and direct relationship between visual learners and introvert learners which means they preferred learning alone or in small groups. Those auditory and kinesthetic learners were extrovert. This study invites language teachers to be more sensitive and considerate about their learners, some need visual support for learning new things the others auditory, and kinesthetic support. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1895 Title A name given to the resource The Relationship between Iranian EFL learners’ Personality Traits and Cognitive Styles Author Author RAHIMI, Masoumeh Abstract A summary of the resource. Key words: Personality Traits,Cognitive Styles, VAK typology,Modality model ABSTRACT As Modality model in learning styles suggests, learners are divided into three parts: visual, auditory, and kinesthetic. And according to personality model some learners are introvert and some extrovert. The relationship between these essential points in teaching process is very helpful both for foreign language learners and teachers to improve their learning and teaching and make the lessons more effective for themselves and also for curriculum. The purpose of the present study is to find the direct relationship between Iranian EFL learners’ Personality Traits and Cognitive Styles. The study considered 60 females’ participant, which were selected randomly at Zabansara English Language Institute in Bushehr, Iran. Nearly all the participants belonged to the age group of 13-16. They were all learning English at intermediate levels. Two research instruments were used to gather the needed data for this study: Eysenck Personality Inventory (EPI) and VAK learning styles test. Correlation Coefficient was used to analyze the collected data. The result suggested that there was significant and direct relationship between visual learners and introvert learners which means they preferred learning alone or in small groups. Those auditory and kinesthetic learners were extrovert. This study invites language teachers to be more sensitive and considerate about their learners, some need visual support for learning new things the others auditory, and kinesthetic support. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available IBU Publishing Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-03 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 890 Title A name given to the resource The Relationship between Learning Styles, Language Learning Strategies and Field of Study of Intermediate EFL Students Author Author Sheikhi, Leili Abstract A summary of the resource. This study intends to identify the learning styles and language learning strategies of three groups of Persian learners of English in order to check whether there is a relationship between students' learning styles, language learning strategies and field of study. The subjects consisted of 75 undergraduate students (each group 25) attending Najafabad Islamic Azad University. They were divided into three groups according to their major fields that are TEFL, Physical Education and History. The subjects were asked to complete two questionnaires. One was used to examine students' perceptual learning style preferences and the other was used to identify their preferred language learning strategies. The data analysis of the questionnaires revealed a significant relationship between students' learning styles, language learning strategies and the field of study. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics