26 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e482e0030eda3c666d8ca60f263ce0d4.pdf ac238f97d22198d23607c999e33bed4b PDF Text Text AN APPROACH TO STUDYING AND TEACHING THE NOVEL A Practical Student Guide Melih Karakuzu. An Approach to Studying and Teaching the Novel. International Burch University. Sarajevo-2012 Preface What can be the ideal way of teaching a novel? This practical guide was intended to show how to go from one step to another, from “What is worthy of teaching in a novel?" to "How will students be able to be involved in the issue and understand this book? How will progress be assessed? What may be the indication of students’ understanding plot, story, theme, characters and so on? “This book will provide examples of materials, resources on the Internet, and approaches which were admitted successful in teaching settings. Inevitably the ways offered here may not be the only ones to teach novel. But it may only be a way to teach it regularly. But it is a fact that people needed to get resources and are searching for them. Through this book we tried to offer a collection of probable resources for the teachers and the students studying literature at college level or higher. Therefore this practical guide may be recommended to such target readers and facilitators. As the non-native speaker and the learner of a language- here English is presumed-, it will be a double challenge for the learner and the teacher to understand and analyze a novel. Therefore the content of this book is primarily targeted such people who are speakers of English as a foreign language. Therefore the handled subjects and samples may seem to be simple for a native English learner and teachers of novel analysis. � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/4cdf89212d607e446555c7b1132ac926.jpg b64a8c4280b9033dc8f8c69e7e5b587a Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1375 Title A name given to the resource AN APPROACH TO STUDYING AND TEACHING THE NOVEL A Practical Student Guide Author Author Karakuzu, Melih Abstract A summary of the resource. What can be the ideal way of teaching a novel? This practical guide was intended to show how to go from one step to another, from “What is worthy of teaching in a novel?" to "How will students be able to be involved in the issue and understand this book? How will progress be assessed? What may be the indication of students’ understanding plot, story, theme, characters and so on? “This book will provide examples of materials, resources on the Internet, and approaches which were admitted successful in teaching settings. Inevitably the ways offered here may not be the only ones to teach novel. But it may only be a way to teach it regularly. But it is a fact that people needed to get resources and are searching for them. Through this book we tried to offer a collection of probable resources for the teachers and the students studying literature at college level or higher. Therefore this practical guide may be recommended to such target readers and facilitators. As the non-native speaker and the learner of a language- here English is presumed-, it will be a double challenge for the learner and the teacher to understand and analyze a novel. Therefore the content of this book is primarily targeted such people who are speakers of English as a foreign language. Therefore the handled subjects and samples may seem to be simple for a native English learner and teachers of novel analysis. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Melih Karakuzu Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Book Section PeerReviewed PE English,PR English literature Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1077 Title A name given to the resource An Approach to Studying and Teaching the Novel: A Practical Student Guide Author Author Karakuzu, Melih Abstract A summary of the resource. What can be the ideal way of teaching a novel? This practical guide was intended to show how to go from one step to another, from “What is worthy of teaching in a novel?" to "How will students be able to be involved in the issue and understand this book? How will progress be assessed? What may be the indication of students’ understanding plot, story, theme, characters and so on? “This book will provide examples of materials, resources on the Internet, and approaches which were admitted successful in teaching settings. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Publications Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-04-01 Keywords Keywords. Book PeerReviewed PN Literature (General) Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 858 Title A name given to the resource An Approach to Understanding Native English through Listening Author Author Güzel, Hızır Ali Abstract A summary of the resource. Our attention has been drawn increasingly to the problems our learners have in listening, and in particular to hearing the weak forms, especially the most commonly used sound in the English language, the schwa. We see that many non-native speakers of English find it difficult to understand the English spoken by native speakers or other fluent speakers of English.That is to say, they cannot recognise words they know when they hear . We consider that this difficulty generally arises because of their unfamiliarity with the schwa , which is weak, unstressed , occuring in auxiliary verbs , pronouns, articles , linkers and prepositions that are not usually stressed , and are reduced to keep the stress pattern regular.Recognising the fact that the weak forms are problematical for Turkish learners, and English language tuition tends to focus primarily on grammar, it is therefore not surprising that Turkish learners have considerable difficulty in hearing sounds uttered by native-English speakers. A further problem is spoken English should not be confused nor considered to be the same as academic English, nor written English, or perfectly structured grammatical English sentences; spoken English is inherently in short form regardless of being formal or informal spoken English. The most articulate standard English speaker will use short forms when speaking. This presentation shows the results of a small- scale research project undertaken with a mostly random selection of about 150 students attending Rize University, from different faculties in the range preparatory level to 2nd year level, and with varying levels of English tuition in terms of years of study but attending both private and government schools. Each student listened to 50 elementary-level sentences that are common to hear in everyday life , which were repeated three times by a recorded native English speaker, and they were asked to write down what they heard. No attention was given to spelling and some learners wrote phonetically. Interestingly the vocational students’ listening capacity was equal to some of the medical students and higher than the educational faculty students. Those with the most proficient listening skills came from the merchant navy faculty students who had had exposure to native- English speakers in their home towns situated on the touristic Aegean and Mediterranean coast. Our purpose in this presentation is to raise the awareness of non-native teachers, especially the new inexperienced teachers of English usage to value, understand the nature of listening and to practise a more constructive methodology of teaching listening skills to their learners. In doing so, we can help our learners not only understand native speakers better but enable them to sound a bit more natural when they speak English.In addition, we believe the other skills, that of reading, writing and speaking of English will not only be advanced but internalised into becoming a lifelong skill. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/3afe06cde9deb9d478e507dbef2bb36f.pdf 8e2207dcc6657474071d17b9a6e46c19 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo US Government. (1993). Reengineering through information technology”, Accompanying Report of the National Performance Review, Office of the Vice President, September, available at: http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/npr/library/reports/it.html. Velibeyoğlu, K. (2004). Bilgi Teknolojileri destekli kentsel gelisme stratejileri. Yapi ve Kentte Bilisim, Ankara World Bank Group. (2003). A definition www1.worldbank.org/publicsector/ egov/definition.htm. of e-government. Zhang, J., Dawes, S., and Sarkis, J. (2005). Exploring stakeholders' expectations of the benefits and barriers of e-government knowledge sharing. Journal of Enterprise Information Management An Assessment on Evolution of Regional Development Concept Ulu Emriye1, Kiymalioğlu S. Umit2 1Akdeniz University Alanya Business Faculty, Alanya, Turkey 2Akdeniz Univesity Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Antalya, Turkey E – mails: emriyeulu@akdeniz.edu.tr, umitk@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract Associating the terms, knowledge, innovation and learning, with development is not a new process. The innovation as the primary source of competitive advantage in capitalist economies had been postulated firstly in Marx and Schumpeter’s ideas. But in parallel with evolution process of development theories and studies, addressing the concepts on regional level and within the framework of sustainability is a new process. It is seen apparently that interest in “region” concept has a considerable place in development studies from the early 1990s. Now regions are seen as opened identitites and are exposured to the effects of international competition directly. Right at this point, the development efforts of lagging regions by “cut and copy” transfer practice of the development models and policy instruments of advanced regions have lost their meanings. Prior development models which used to focus on physical infrastructure and capital endowment have been replaced with internal models emphasizing the accumulation of intellectual capital and intangible assets. Key source of competitive advantage is defined as the capacities of regions to support 226 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo learning and innovation processes. To achieve and sustain the competitive development on regional level, such models and instruments are required that, they will consider the unique features and differences of regions, built on the peculiarities of different regions, , not general but customized and bottom up participatory, have ability to constitute exploitable advantages. In accordance with the saying, “think globally, act locally”; the concept of sustainability also shifted from its global understanding to such an understanding which is fed from local and regional applications.When a region starts to develop, region’s sustainability must be examined. An ecological deficit which may emerge, should also affect the neighbour developed regions inevitably. So regional development should not be thought independent from sustainability. At this point, two concepts come to the scene; “regional sustainable development” and “sustainable regional development”. The difference is that, for “regional sustainable development” enviromental objectives and targets are in the forefront, while economic goals have priority in “sustainable regional development”. But in the second one, to maintain the sustainability of regional development, some enviromental precautions and policies are considered too. This study aims to offer critics of recent studies and provide some inferences to possible directions for further research by examining the studies, particularly the ones which reconsider the innovation, knowledge and regional development relation in framework of sustainability. In the study, firstly the conditions will be underlined which led the emergence of “the new regional development approach”, focusing on the local dynamics as driving forces of regional development. And then, in relation to evolving debates about sustainability and regional development, the forefront concepts- like “learning regions”, “innovative milieux”, regional networks- will be held within its intellectual context and clarified how they are situated and conceptualized in empirical studies. In this context, new development models and the internal drivers of regional development should be revealed. And finally the reached findings will be examined in terms of common goals for sustainable development and some inferences for further research will be offered. Keywords: sustainable development, innovation, knowledge, regional development, development models, new regional development approach, sustainability. 1.INTRODUCTION Prior development models which used to focus on physical infrastructure and capital endowment have been replaced with internal models emphasizing the accumulation of intellectual capital and intangible assets. Key source of competitive advantage is defined as the capacities of regions to support learning and innovation processes. To achieve and sustain the competitive development on regional level, such models and instruments are required that, they will consider the unique features and differences of regions, built on the 227 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo peculiarities of different regions, , not general but customized and bottom up participatory, have ability to constitute exploitable advantages. This study aims to offer critics of recent studies and provide some inferences to possible directions for further research by examining the studies, particularly the ones which reconsider the innovation, knowledge and regional development relation in framework of sustainability. In the study, firstly the conditions will be underlined by taking a look at the theoretical background which led the emergence of “the new regional development approach”. And then, in relation to evolving debates about sustainability and regional development, the essential concepts of development will be held within in regional development studies. In this context, new development models and the internal drivers of regional development should be revealed. And finally the reached findings will be examined in terms of common goals for sustainable development and some inferences for further research will be offered. 2. Theoretical Background of Development The interest to development subject has increased just after the II.World War. The first reason is the desire for international trade and capital flow revival. And the second reason is the efforts of countries, which acquired political independence newly, to acquire independence also from economic aspects. For these countries, national liberation is almost identified with economic development. Before exploring “new development theories”, it should be more proper to take a look at the former approaches. Traditional Development Economics Approach(1950 and 1960s), focusing on national development, states that countries follow a linear development path and underdevelopment is a transient phase. According to Rostow, each country should experience the same historical process inevitably. This approach seeks for the reasons of underdevelopment in internal structures of countries; like gaps in savings, investment or lack of market size. According to Structuralist Approach, the key factor of development is capital accumulation. The inadequacy of capital accumulation is a result of the lack of market size and other structural problems. To solve the market size problem, international trade should be seen as a preference. Singer, one of the pioneers of structuralist approach, states that international trade and foreign investments are not for the benefit of underdeveloped countries but they constitute obstacles to development. The structuralists, suggested following a planned import-substitution strategy to support the development efforts and to protect import-substitutive sectors. But the experiences showed that these implementations had increased the dependency of underdeveloped countries to imports. The importsubstitutive sectors which benefit from protection facilities had developed against to export sectors. The import-substitution policies, suggesting the protection of the country’s economy as a whole, bogged down in many parts of the world and largely abandoned in the early 1980s. 228 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Traditional development approach, which correlates development to internal factors couldn’t solve the underdevelopment problems. By the 1960s, other approaches which correlate development to external factors, rather than internal ones, took their place on development literature. Dependency theory is the most comprehensive between them. They connected the underdevelopment directly to the dependency relations with Western countries. The new developments and the dynamics of World Economy necessitated the development subject to be handled from different and new perspectives due to the failure of traditional old development approaches. Thus, New Development Approaches(NDA) have been proposed: Neo-Liberal Approach, Endogenous Growth, Human-Centered Development, Egalitarian Approach, Basic Needs Approach, Veblen-Ayres Theory and Sustainable Development Approach can be counted under NDA(Doğan,2010). Neo-liberal Development Approaches(early 1980s), claimed that for the problems of underdeveloped countries there is no need for a new economic approach aside the neoclassical economics. They take “market” as fundamental variable and see the interventions of governments as obstacles to development. Governments should reduce these interventions and make privatizations. As well as, they should implement the structural adjustment programs to keep pace with globalization. Unlike the former development literature, this approach offers common solutions for all the countries(Dolun,2006). This approach exclude all the phenomena placed outside the commodity economy and take human only by its economic dimension (Partant, 2002). By neo-liberal approaches, government interventions are replaced by new issues like: technological improvement, specialization, knowledge and scale economies. With neo-liberal approaches, dynamic optimization models have been replaced of traditional development models(Saxonhouse,1988). It’s seen that the implementation of policies based on these approaches by the early 1990s, increased the gap between developed and underdeveloped countries and the predictions of convergence theory didn’t happen. Endogenous Growth Approaches, brought a new perspective in terms of source of economic development. Differently from neo-liberal approaches, they don’t take the economic growth as a result of external drivers but a result of economic system’s internal drivers(Romer, 1994). Knowledge, human capital and technological progress are internalized, like labor and capital, by this approach. Endogenous growth theories put the technological issues to the center of the analysis and focus on the dimensions like learning by doing, external economies, and accumulation of human capital. They reject the convergence theory and embrace the divergence theory. The biggest lack of these approaches is that, they don’t include topics like societies’ institutional features and social differences. They depend on a lot of neoclassical assumptions, inappropriate for underdeveloped countries. Therefore, the implementation of endogenous growth approaches to development area remains restricted. Human-centered Development Approaches: They criticize traditional approaches as they transformed the concept of development into a commodity-based definition; devoid from human variables and differentiating from emancipatory content (Ingham, 1993). 229 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Development is associated with life and so must focus on living standards. Development is such a process that; beside economic growth blessings of this growth is distributed evenly, during growth rather than destroying environment it is renewed, human choices are increased and opportunities for participation of people in decisions that affect their lives are also increased. From this perspective development, neither can be reduced to technological problems nor restricted with economic growth (Kelleber, 1993). Egalitarian Development Approach, argued that ensuring the equitable distribution of income is of great importance as well as increase in income. Almost one quarter of world population lives in absolute poverty. Beside this, the richest %20 of world population gets the %80 of world revenue. Negative developments in terms of income distribution created by neo-liberal policies implemented in recent years, necessitated the development concept to be addressed in the context of equity. The understanding behind Basic Needs Approach this approach is that, ensuring directly the basic needs; such as health, education, nutrition, housing, lead to a reduction in absolute poverty more quickly than alternative strategies. Increasing the income and productivity of poor’s is linked to obtainment of their basic needs firstly. Putting basic needs approach into practice, which has brought a new perspective to development concept, is nearly impossible. The approach focuses on the social needs covering the poor majority, not on the individual needs. Sustainable Development represents transition to environmentally compatible growth from growth against to environment. Traditional development approaches assume that natural source supply and the transformation possibility of them to products during production process is infinite. So they neglect the long-term negative affects of production on natural environment. The commodification of nature in frame of capitalist production logic led nature destruction. Sustainable development aims to prevent consumption of sources faster than renewal rate of them. 3. Essential Concepts (Innovation, Knowledge, Competitiveness) and Sustainable Regional Development Sustainability, Regional Following the II.World War, after the development policies started to be implemented, it had been seen that economic and social activities were clustering around a natural center in every country. This increased the polarity between regions and led to big imbalances. Thus the economic and social cost of development had increased and it had been understood that the development plans should give an extra special importance to the regions of the country. Otherwise these issues would continue to create obstacles against nation’s development. After this, “development” and “region” concepts were inevitably thought together. But still the issue had been handled at national level and the dominant approaches were Traditional Development Approaches summarized above. In early policies and studies, development was used to be taken at the level of national economy policies. It was believed that, eliminating 230 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the development differences between the regions of a country was the best solution for succeeding the national development. The way of ensuring the convergence of the lagging regions to advanced regions was seen as the same. Lagging regions should follow and imitate the advanced ones and so the differences between regions should be minimized. Thus governments started to provide financial incentives to the lagging regions for catching the advanced ones. By 1990’s, a big transition occurred in terms of development approaches. With increasing globalization of production and finance, the meaning of the term “region” also has started to change. Regions started to be seen as opened economic entities which exposure to the international competition directly. This has changed the attention focus from national-level to regional-level intervention if regions are to be able to shape their own development prospects in a climate of rapid technological change and increased capital mobility. A new approach has been adopted, focusing to increase competitiveness of all regions by taking privileges, needs and strong features of each region. Achieving the structural adaptation of regions to globalization became one of the fundamental problems of today’s policy makers. Also, taking competitiveness as a goal which should be reached by short term instruments is abandoned by time. The newest understanding in regional development area is, sustaining the competitiveness of regions in such a competitive world. This requires taking the subject in a dynamic perspective. As a result of increasing globalization of World, both consumers and producers are looking for differentiated products. This transformation requires abandoning traditional regional development policies, which used to take regions as if they were homogenous identities. Prior development models have been replaced with internal models emphasizing the accumulation of intellectual capital and intangible assets. Key source of competitive advantage is defined as the capacities of regions to support learning and innovation processes. To achieve and sustain the competitive development on regional level, such models and instruments are required that, they will consider the unique features and differences of regions, built on the peculiarities of different regions, not general but customized and bottom up participatory, have ability to constitute exploitable advantages. The new economic growth models are interested in dynamic factors like; human capital, innovation, knowledge and entrepreneurship. For achievement of regional sustainable development, innovation and innovation capacity are seen as essential factors. (Ionescu,2011) Innovation is the transformation of an idea into a marketable product or service, a new or improved manufacturing or distribution process. Innovation and knowledge are fundamental to the economic development, growth and future competitiveness of regions. Knowledge is embodied in people and innovation is recombining of existing knowledge into new processes. Today’s society is dominated by modern information flows and communication technologies. The concept of knowledge, at the heart of the regional debate during the nineties, was also influential in constructing some relevant elements of the political discourse at the national as well at the supra-national level. Public statements like the EU’s ‘Lisbon Strategy’ or the Territorial Agenda of the European Union (2007) reflect the idea that regional and 231 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo national prosperity depends more and more on the rate of knowledge embodied in economic and social systems(Segre, 2011; p.2). Ionescu(2011), aims to create a base of analysis for systems’ parameters’ evaluation , the territorial dimension of these systems and the role of the institutions inside the regional innovation, learning and development partnership. According to Ionescu(2011); the preceding studies on this subject failed to offer the territorial dimension of innovation, learning and development, the important role of institutions in defining and implementing the specific regional systems. The approaches to the issue can be classified into two; as analytical approach and theoretical scientific approach. Analytical approaches generate the empirical base of the regional innovation, learning and development policies. The scientific approach analyses and systematizes the most important ideas and argues of the researches in the regional innovation, learning and development regional systems, to realize a scientific base for a pertinent analysis. Ionescu(2011); bands two approaches together and goes through with a new model connected to continuous learning policies, “creative industries” and the regional development. From a dynamic and systemic perspective, human resources become crucial in setting up the region’s innovative capacity (Ho, 2004). Following various currents in the literature, Ferreira(2011) strives to take Regional Innovation System(RIS) analysis a little further by adopting an eclectic approach. Ferreira et al. built in an innovation function that links the ideas promoted by Muller(2009) with regard to the first contribution of Knowledge Intensive Business Services(KIBS) to regional innovation systems with the notions of entrepreneurship capital developed by Audretsch(2004) and Acs(2004) and with a helps transform knowledge spillovers into real economic opportunities is very important for RIS and, simultaneously, carries a social dimension that is essential when studying a systemic reality. Their results seem broadly robust and imply that the majority of factors considered contribute to the regional innovative performance as proxied by a variable that unites patenting and trade marking. From their results, they point out that the KIBS sector seems to be essential and as expected, human capital plays a central role in fostering innovation as does regional technological endowment. They state that data unavailability prevented them from computing the importance of R&D efforts and R&D personnel, thus their results showed only a weak but positive role for universities. Nevertheless, they expect to investigate this and other missing aspects. Janschitz(2010) adapted Neuro-Linguistic Programming(NLP), an approach to communication, personal development, and psychotherapy created in the 1970, to regional development in two ways. The concepts, like learning regions, creative milieus, network approaches, transdisciplinary case studies are not tackling question of regional identities and values. Therefore, Janschitz(2010) developed a concept on the basis of a common set of values and beliefs, which is directing the endogenous, self-organizing and self-sustaining development measures/actions to achieve value-led results. The introduction of two social 232 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo theory approaches, adapted from NLP, namely “the concept of logical levels” and “the concept of regional modeling” will result in a value-led and participatory regional development (Janschitz,2010) Regional modeling is the result of regional benchmarking and the process of transferring best-practice cases of successful regions (model region) at different logical levels to a modeling region. Regional modeling, using the value-led logics of sustainability consists of different modeling processes to cope with the social, economic, ecological, and institutional opportunities and challenges of a region. It is clear that this approach is neither a fast nor an easy option for regional development. It probably needs years of consequent work to achieve sustainable success and guarantee adaptation, and successful change in regions. But this is the best approach for applied scientists and regional development actors, who follow the paradigm of a respectful, human oriented, value based, transdisciplinary research, and who see regional development no longer as a discipline of “analyzing, constructing and optimizing a spatial order”, but include the involvement of concerned people in order to attain logical hierarchy based and value-led results as a response to global challenges. (Janschitz,2010). Characterizing innovation as a social, non-linear and interactive learning process raises the question of the role of socio-cultural structures in innovation processes. The socioinstitutional environment where innovations emerge plays an essential role in successful innovation processes. From a regional point of view, innovation is often understood as a locally embedded process that takes place within the regional innovation system.The locally embedded process is formed of heterogeneous groups of different kinds of actors including representatives of firms, universities, technology centers and development organizations. It is regionally crucial to increase the capacity of these institutions enhancing regional innovative capability (Harmaakorpi, 2003) Regional competitiveness leading to regional success and wellbeing can be measured in many ways. However, when assessing sustainable regional competitiveness one indicator rises above the others: productivity. As Krugman(1994) referring to competitiveness and economic growth puts it “productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything”. Porter(1998) comes to the same conclusion in his studies concerning the national level. He determines productivity and innovativeness to be the essential sources of competitiveness regardless of the assessed geographical entity. Harmaakorpi(2003), strongly suggests that using the regional level is reasonable in assessing economic success and questions related to economic development policy. Regional success is based on the region’s ability to create new paths based on its assets under the rules of the new techno-economic paradigm. The paths can be very different in nature and no patent regional recipes can be given. These features being abstract make it hard to measure them statistically in many cases. However, some resources needed that set the foundation for regional wellbeing can be embodied in statistical analysis. 233 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4. Conclusions For the sustainability of regional development, it must be accepted by local-regional authorities and dynamics. The success of sustainable development implementations depends on collective supports of regional actors and dynamics. The latest studies in sustainable regional development area underline this point and take the subject in this perspective. Janschitz(2010) brings a very different and exciting perspective to the subject. The implementation of “the logics of sustainability” is possible for different regional development strands in research, like learning regions, creative milieus, and transdisciplinary case studies as well as best practice case oriented concepts. If NLP method can be very successful at personal development, why not be at regional development? REFERENCES Acs, Z., Audretsch, D., Braunerhjelm, P., Carlsson, B. (2004), The Missing Link: The Knowledge Filter, Entrepreneurship And Endogenous Growth. Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Papers, No:4783, London. Audretsch, D. and Keilbach, M. (2004) Entrepreneurship and regional growth: An Evolutionary interpretation, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 14(5), 605-616. Doğan, A. and Öztürk, N. (2010), Yeni Kalkınma Kuramları, Bütçe Dünyası Dergisi, Sayı33, 2010/1 Dolun, L. and Atik, A.H.(2006), Kalkınma Teorileri ve Modern Kalkınma Bankacılığı Uygulamaları, Türkiye Kalkınma Bankası A.Ş., Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Müdürlüğü, Ankara Ferreira, V.H.S and Godinho, M.(2011), Building An Innovation Function With Patents and Trademarks: Evidence From Portuguese Regional Innovation Systems, Paper presented at the DRUID 2011, Denmark Harmaakorpi, V., Kauranen, I. and Haikonen, A.(2003), The Shift in the Techno-socioeconomic Paradigm and Regional Competitiveness, The 43rd Congress of European Regional Science Association(ERSA), Finland Ho, M. (2004), Differences between European Regional Innovation Systems in Terms of technological and Economic Characteristics. Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies,Working Paper 04.06. Ingham, B. (1993), The Meaning of Development: Interactions between “new” and “old” ideas, World Development, Volume: 21, Issue: 11, p.1803-1821 Ionescu, R.V. and Moga, L.M.(2011), International Journal Of Education And Information Technologies, Issue 3, Volume 5, p.310-318 234 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Janschitz, S. and Zimmermann, F.M. (2010), Regional modeling and the logics of sustainability – a social theory approach for regional development and change, Enviromental Economics, 1(1), p.134-142 Kelleber, A. (1993), The Need for Human Centered Development, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Volume: 52, Number:1, January, p.49-50 Krugman P. (1994), Productivity Growth, The Age of Diminished Expectations, Cambridge, MA. The MIT Pres available at http://books.google.com.tr Muller, E. and Doloreux, D. (2009) What We Should Know About Knowledge-Intensive Business Services, Technology in Society 31(1), 64-72. Partant, F. (2002), Kalkınmanın Sonu Bir Alternatif mi Doğuyor? (Translated by F. Başkaya),Maki Basın Yayın, Ankara Porter, M. E. (1998) Clusters and the new economics of competition. Harvard Business Review 76(6), 77–90. Saxonhouse G.R. and Saxonhouse A.W. (1988), An Inquiry into the Philosophic Roots of Concepts of Economic Order, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, Volume:144, Number:2, p.344-356. Segre, G. and Salone, C.(2011), Culture And Creativity In The Territorial Local Systems. Tales in Search for a Theoretical Scheme, Dipartimento di Economia “S. Cognetti de Martiis”, Working Paper New Series, Working Paper No: 1/2012 Storper, M. (1992) The limits to globalization: Technology districts and international trade, Economic Geography 68, 60-93. Tüylüoğlu, Ş. and Çeştepe, H. (2008), “Kalkınma Teorilerinin Temelleri ve Gelişimi” in E.D. Sami Taban and Muhsin Kar (eds), Kalkınma Ekonomisi: Seçme Konular, 2nd Edition, Ekin Yayınevi, p. 35-87. 235 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1172 Title A name given to the resource An Assessment on Evolution of Regional Development Concept Author Author Ulu, Emriye Abstract A summary of the resource. Associating the terms, knowledge, innovation and learning, with development is not a new process. The innovation as the primary source of competitive advantage in capitalist economies had been postulated firstly in Marx and Schumpeter’s ideas. But in parallel with evolution process of development theories and studies, addressing the concepts on regional level and within the framework of sustainability is a new process. It is seen apparently that interest in “region” concept has a considerable place in development studies from the early 1990s. Now regions are seen as opened identitites and are exposured to the effects of international competition directly. Right at this point, the development efforts of lagging regions by “cut and copy” transfer practice of the development models and policy instruments of advanced regions have lost their meanings. Prior development models which used to focus on physical infrastructure and capital endowment have been replaced with internal models emphasizing the accumulation of intellectual capital and intangible assets. Key source of competitive advantage is defined as the capacities of regions to support learning and innovation processes. To achieve and sustain the competitive development on regional level, such models and instruments are required that, they will consider the unique features and differences of regions, built on the peculiarities of different regions, , not general but customized and bottom up participatory, have ability to constitute exploitable advantages. In accordance with the saying, “think globally, act locally”; the concept of sustainability also shifted from its global understanding to such an understanding which is fed from local and regional applications.When a region starts to develop, region’s sustainability must be examined. An ecological deficit which may emerge, should also affect the neighbour developed regions inevitably. So regional development should not be thought independent from sustainability. At this point, two concepts come to the scene; “regional sustainable development” and “sustainable regional development”. The difference is that, for “regional sustainable development” enviromental objectives and targets are in the forefront, while economic goals have priority in “sustainable regional development”. But in the second one, to maintain the sustainability of regional development, some enviromental precautions and policies are considered too. This study aims to offer critics of recent studies and provide some inferences to possible directions for further research by examining the studies, particularly the ones which reconsider the innovation, knowledge and regional development relation in framework of sustainability. In the study, firstly the conditions will be underlined which led the emergence of “the new regional development approach”, focusing on the local dynamics as driving forces of regional development. And then, in relation to evolving debates about sustainability and regional development, the forefront concepts- like “learning regions”, “innovative milieux”, regional networks- will be held within its intellectual context and clarified how they are situated and conceptualized in empirical studies. In this context, new development models and the internal drivers of regional development should be revealed. And finally the reached findings will be examined in terms of common goals for sustainable development and some inferences for further research will be offered. Keywords: sustainable development, innovation, knowledge, regional development, development models, new regional development approach, sustainability. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 974 Title A name given to the resource An Attempt to ESLize EFL through Video Making Author Author Gurbuz, Salim Abstract A summary of the resource. Leaving aside the subsidiary discussions about specific distinctions between ESL and EFL in literature, ESL as a learning situation in which the learner has a chance to be exposed to the language outside the class stands out more advantageous than its counterpart most of the time. EFL students start the language race with not only this disadvantage but also the lack of real communicative tasks in the class which creates a real gap between ESL and EFL curriculum (Al-Hashash 2007). Specifically in the English language preparatory programs (or year) of Turkish higher education the gap is aggravated by the unmotivated students who consider this year as the Berlin Wall between themselves and their branches of study. In MUYDEM (Meliksah University Foreign Languages Education Center) which offers such kind of one year extensive English program and has about 650 students as of 2012, Muydem TV started as a project to replace these three problems with a tripod. Compared to the studies describing various criteria and several benefits of video making in ESL and EFL teaching (Cogill, 1999; Hoelker, Nimmannit, and Nakamura 1999; Hada, Ogata and Yano 2002; Ryan, 2003;Goulah 2007; Long & Doughty, 2009; Masats, Dooly & Costa, 2009;Gromik, 2006) Muydem TV rather focuses on encouraging students from different levels and classes to work in video shooting teams organized on Facebook to use English outside the class for authentic purposes and online audiences on Youtube and Moodle. The participants of this workshop will prepare and present an episode whose parts will be merged into the prefabricated format of Muydem TV, and through this, will have a chance to experience communicative, creative, and especially motivational aspects of this method or pack of activities for the teachers in closing the gap between ESL and EFL by immunizing the language for further use outside the class. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-04 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/97b2aeaf7fd9221c1a7e8b5e204777ef.pdf 432c410d2537e5ce62106e057e0d6ff9 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo An Economic Order Quantity Model For Defective Items Under Permissible Delay In Payments And Shortage Harun Sulak Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey harunsulak@sdu.edu.tr Abdullah Eroğlu Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey aeroglu@sdu.edu.tr M. Ali Avcı Pamukkale University, Denizli, Turkey aliavci20@hotmail.com Mustafa Bayhan Pamukkale University, Denizli, Turkey mbayhan@pau.edu.tr Inventory control models are classified as deterministic and stochastic models upon the condition that the demand is definitely known, or not. Economic Order Quantity Models are among the most widely used techniques in deterministic inventory control models. Economic Order Quantity models have many assumptions that are not satisfied completely with recent economic conditions such as all items in an ordered lot are perfect quality and the payments are made as soon as the items received. In this study, by loosening these two assumptions, a new model is proposed in the case of defective items, permissible delay in payments and shortage. For two case of permissible delay, the optimal values are determined and the effects of permissible delay in payments on ordering quantity and total profit are analyzed. Result of the analysis show that while permissible delay of payment increases order quantity decreases and total profit increases. Furthermore, numerical examples are given for the developed model and changes in the optimal values are analyzed with sensitivity analysis. Finally some previously published results are deduced as special cases of proposed model. Keywords: Economic Order Quantity, Permissible delay in Payments, Defective items, Shortage. 151 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1582 Title A name given to the resource An Economic Order Quantity Model For Defective Items Under Permissible Delay In Payments And Shortage Author Author SULAK, Harun EROGLU, Abdullah M. AVCI, Ali BAYHAN, Mustafa Abstract A summary of the resource. Inventory control models are classified as deterministic and stochastic models upon the condition that the demand is definitely known, or not. Economic Order Quantity Models are among the most widely used techniques in deterministic inventory control models. Economic Order Quantity models have many assumptions that are not satisfied completely with recent economic conditions such as all items in an ordered lot are perfect quality and the payments are made as soon as the items received. In this study, by loosening these two assumptions, a new model is proposed in the case of defective items, permissible delay in payments and shortage. For two case of permissible delay, the optimal values are determined and the effects of permissible delay in payments on ordering quantity and total profit are analyzed. Result of the analysis show that while permissible delay of payment increases order quantity decreases and total profit increases. Furthermore, numerical examples are given for the developed model and changes in the optimal values are analyzed with sensitivity analysis. Finally some previously published results are deduced as special cases of proposed model. Keywords: Economic Order Quantity, Permissible delay in Payments, Defective items, Shortage. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/78a91c50da55af3eb7257fc0613d7574.pdf 504eab41c5ac19e5f04cca5a5c816a63 PDF Text Text 2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo An Education Structuring Model in Vocational and Technical Education with The Orijins of Young Lecturers: Kaman Vocational School Prof.Dr. Ali Đhsan Karayiğit Ahi Evran University, Kaman Vocational School, Kaman, Kırşehir/Turkey aikarayigit@ahievran.edu.tr Assist.Prof.Dr. Latif Onur Uğur Ahi Evran University, Kaman Vocational School, Kaman, Kırşehir/Turkey lougur@ahievran.edu.tr Abstract: In this study, it is discussed that a breakthrough approach to education with young faculty members in vocational technical education. Kaman Vocational School which was connected another university before, connected Kırşehir Ahi Evran University with a decision received in its foundation date in 2006. Continuing its tarining activities given 160 students three departments, two permanent faculty members and the others coming from nearby provinces; Kaman Vocational School has gained acceleration with a department at four years, students over 1700 and 48 faculty members and the radical decisions given by university management. Not only physical growth but while improving the quality of education with seminars, conferences, technical tours, modern laboratories, important scientific progress achieved by numerous scientific articles and reports, papers, original and alternative textbooks. Under European Union (EU) projects, it was participated with lots of faculty members and students to eight different countries and projects; the social integration increased with the EU higher education and youth arrangements. Successes in sporting activities held within the Vocational School and the university; higher artistic levels in light music, folk music, rock music concerts, theatres, musical and poetry nights prepared by student groups; publishing students’ works that take a degree and honorable mention in story and poetry writing competitions are all provided with the contributions of young and dynamic academic staff. Among over 550 Vocational School in Turkey, Kaman Vocational School that catches on the tops in a short time, constituted a sample training model. In the study, in this model and the role of young teaching staff and the added value they provide within this model is discussed with the help of related data. Key Words: Vocational and Technical Education, Vocational School, Education Model, Education Technology, Human Resources, Young Faculty Members. Introduction Kırşehir Faculty of Education which is considered to be the beginning of Ahi Evran University was opened as Male Teacher’s Training School in 1961 and was transformed into an Institution of Education in 1974-1975 academic -year. In 1982, it was transformed into a (two- year) College of Education and became affiliated to the Gazi Faculty of Eduction of the University of Gazi. In 1988 , the education period was increased to four years and in 1992 it became the Kırşehir Faculty of Education in accordance with the Law numbered 3837. Kaman Vocational School of Higher Education (Kaman MYO) started its education life within the body of University of Hacettepe as per the decree of General Staff dated 23rd January, 1998 and numbered 8 and was affiliated to the University of Gazi in accordance with the protocol signed between University of Gazi and University of Hacettepe as per the decree of General Staff dated 4th April, 2003 and numbered 39. Kaman MYO was later affiliated to the newly established University of Ahi Evran as per the law dated 1st March, 2006 and numbered 5467. There are still 5 Faculties, 3 Colleges, 4 Vocational Schools of Higher Education, and 3 Institutes. University of Ahi Evran still continues to its activities with its experienced staff who are devoted to the principles and revolutions of Ataturk, with its current physical conditions and with the excitement of being a newly established university. In 1913 Kaman became a township centre and had a municipality. It became a district on September 1, 1944. It became affiliated to Ankara in 1954 when Kırşehir became a district itself. It again became affiliated to 252 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Kırşehir after three years when Kırşehir received the status of a province again. According to the archeological excavations , Kaman and its round has been a settlement place since B.C. 3000. Industry has been also improving in Kaman whose main source of living is agriculture and husbandry . The three local papers in Kaman (Kaman Akhaber, Yesil Kaman and Kaman Postası) are weekly issued. A Cultural Centre Building with its well-equipped, 500 people capacity conference hall and a Public Library with lots of books and reading halls are present for the service of all level-students and guests. Although the population of Kaman is 22,000 people, the level of education is very high and it has a very high schooling level which is even much higher than the average in Turkey. The high schools which are generally the main source of the students of Kaman MYO and which are located in the town centre are Kaman Anatolian High School , Kaman Anatolian Teacher’s Training High School, Kaman Anatolian Trade Vocational High School , Imam Hatip High School, Vocational School for Girls, Kaman High School and Kaman Medicine Vocational High School . Thanks to the quality of its education, Kaman is rapidly improving to be a training base and the role of Kaman MYO in this is crucial. The historical Kalehoyuk, Archaeology Museum, Japon Botanic Garden, Hirfanlı Dam and HEP, Ostrich Farm, Closed sports centre, Atletism Stadium, Swimming Pool, Water Sports Centre, mausoleum of the great minstrel Dadaloglu, Walnut tree gardens are some of the touristy, cultural and sporty facilities in Kaman or its round. Kaman MYO started giving education within the body of University of Hacettepe in the academic year of 1998-1999 . The programmes of Food Technology, Construction, Marble Processing and Drilling were opened within the Department of Technical Programmes during the period of foundation. Furthermore, new students have been accepted to the Department of Computer Technologies and Programming within the scope of Ministry of National Education (MEB) - Higher Education Council (YOK) Project of Improving the Vocational Schools of Higher Education since 2002-2003. The school continued its academic life by being transferred into the body of University of Gazi in accordance with the protocol signed between University of Gazi and University of Hacettepe in 2003. Halls of residence with a high capacity which can meet the accommodation needs of both female and male students have been built in Kaman by Credit and Dormitories Institution (YURTKUR) and the facilities of food, studies, internet connection and cafeterias are available in these residence halls. After graduation, it is possible for the students to be transferred to the faculties of four-year education through the External Transfer Exam. The course language is Turkish . In the academic year which will start in September, 2010, the departments at Kaman MYO and their quotas are listed in Table 1. Programmes Computer Programming Computer Programming (E . E . ) Office Services and Executive Assistance Office Services and Executive Assistance (E . E . ) Technology of Natural Building Stones Electricity Electricity (E . E . ) Electronic Correspondence Technologies Electronic Correspondence Technologies (E . E . ) Technology of Electronics Food Technology Food Technology (E . E . ) Mapping and Cadastre Mapping and Cadastre (E . E . ) Construction Technologies Construction Technologies (E . E . ) Control and Automation Technologies Control and Automation Technologies (E . E . ) Machining Accountancy and Taxing Applications Accountancy and Taxing Applications (E . E . ) Marketing Drilling Technologies Drilling Technologies (E . E . ) * E . E . = Evening Education Quotas 120 120 80 40 40 40 40 80 40 40 100 100 80 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 80 40 Table 1 : Kaman MYO, Programmes and the Quotas for 2010 (Source: www://osym . gov . tr). 253 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo According to the foregoing data, the total quota is 1460 and in the event that all the quotas are full, the total number of the students will be nearly 2200 and will be almost 3000 a year later. Literature Review A group of people who come together to achieve a goal forms the organizations. To achieve the goals of the organizations is possible through the management activities. It goes without saying that the goals can be effectively and productively achieved thanks to the existence of the human factor. Akyol (2008) The success of the human resources applications carried out in education organizations directly affect the quality, motivation and performance of the instructors which, as a result, plays an important role in forming the future of the society by directly affecting the quality of the individuals educated. Akyol (2008) The human resources management, in the broadest term, can be defined as a strategic and consistent approach which is developed in order to manage the most important entity of an organization; that is the employees. The human resources management is the management of all activities made in order to acquire and improve a high work force in and organization , ensure and keep their motivation high. Barutçugil (2004) The instructors at school are in a dynamic structure which is continuously changing, innovating, and improving. In the difficult process of becoming an information society, the movements towards a change based on information has also changed the expectations of people from the education. Today, the traditional way of education is insufficient; planning radical changes and transformations in the education policies, their goals, and the structure and functions of the education organizations and in education programmes have become an urgent need. Arslan and Eraslan (2003). The function of the education system and realization of its functions as required are only possible with an organization with a sufficient capacity and quality. Balcı (2000) Within the scope of the human resources management practices to be carried out in the education institutions, it should be first determined what kind of people and skills are required for the management of the school in an effective way and the conduct of the training activities in a successful way. The required human resources should be selected carefully and an effective method should be developed in order to carry out this selection successfully. The activities made at school should be analyzed, the content of the work, the requirement for them, and the order of operations should be determined in this respect. New systems should be created in order to increase the performance of the personnel at school. The professional future of personnel should be planned, thus their professional improvement should be guided. The human resources that the school has in it should be used in the fields where they can be successful, that is the right person should do the right thing. The personnel should continuously be ensured to improve themselves. In order for the human resources at school to be managed in an effective way, the school should keep in touch with other schools and institutions and should have information about their human resources as well. New plans should be made to meet the need for a human force for the future and the personnel should be educated for the needs of the future. Erdoğan (2003) The most important factor which leads the way to the success or failure of an education organization is the determination of the instructors in the right way, in the right time and with the right qualifications and the selection of the most useful one among them is individually an important issue. Therefore, finding, selecting and placing an employee which is a dynamic function of the human resources management, which is the employment is the hardest but the most important function of the process. Akyol (2008) The most general and suitable definition for career can be summarized as this: “Career is the experience gained and the series of attitudes and behaviours about activities that a person has acquired all his life”. The process to achieve the goals that individuals determined in their professional or social lives and the experiences which came along through the programmes they applied in this process play an important role in terms of structuring their career. insankaynaklari.com (2008). Career development is the collection of all activities that individuals made in order to achieve their career goals all their lives. Barutçugil (2004) According to the results of a survey conducted among the instructors, although their needs and expectations are different, these common facts play an important role in motivation and job satisfaction. Ataklı (1996): • A good and fair salary • Good working conditions • Promotion and improvement opportunities • Appraisal of success • A job guarantee • Understanding of personal problems • The nature of the job as interesting and meaningful. 254 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo The key factor in increasing the motivation of the instructors is to ensure the efficacy at school . The school management should lead the instructors to cooperation and to increase the quality of the education in their departments or classes. Increasing the responsibility for education, decreasing the loss of a job, developing objective standards and encouraging groups are the main fields that are required for being successful. The school managements should create a bond between the super-units and subunits. Emmanuel (1998) Method (The Structure of the Model Created) Within the scope of the human resource practices to be realized in the education organizations , it has been determined what kind of people and skills are required in order to manage the Kaman MYO effectively and carry out the educational activities successfully and thus the main philosophy has been formed . In order to apply for the exam of being an instructor at a Vocational School of Higher Education in Turkey , one needs to finish a four year degree with a higher score than the average , and to work in his/her field for at least two years or to do a master’s degree programme . In addition, one is required to receive a score over a minimum passing score from the Academic Personnel Master’s Degree Exam (ALES) and to have a good score from the foreign language exams that are conducted with a centralized system. The candidates who can meet these requirements are subject to a written exam and an interview and then they are employed. In the process of recruitment , in addition to the requirements for being an instructor , the applicants are told that the ones who want to make an academic career will be preferred , and therefore they will have an off day in a week for their master’s degree or doctorate’s degree studies , and the ones who finish their doctorate’s studies will be an instructor (as an associate professor) as practicable as possible . As we believe that “Only going into the classroom and teaching” is obsolete even at secondary education institutions , we have paid attention to choose the applicants who may do academic studies , participate in social and group activities , and hence contribute to the vision of Kaman MYO . In order to realize our aims , it is considered that the most productive choice is to combine the efforts of an experienced academic staff that is devoted to the vision of Kaman MYO and has high academic values with the efforts of a junior personnel who can achieve high motivation by learning the goals and thus a good training structure has been planned for the junior staff . Since Kaman MYO is affiliated to a state university, the charges are determined as per the public regulations. As good working conditions are required for the highly qualified staff employment, lodgings are provided for most of our academicians who come out of Kaman. New office furniture, telephone and internet connections have been supplied in their offices which are clean and spacious; ring services are also available from the lodgings to the school buildings. The rewarding of the instructors has been paid great attention. All the instructors have been guaranteed that they will have their jobs on condition that they improve themselves scientifically and educationally. All kinds of academic studies either in Turkey or abroad have been supported. The new instructors have also been informed that their personal problems will be tried to be overcome in Kaman MYO where we try to build close relationships. We state that the relationship between the academicians and the students is warm but the factor of respect shall never be forgotten. We also state that Kaman MYO is a model school and is known as mentioned in its vision and will have a wide range of products which is highly prestigious and preferred. Therefore, the instructors who will contribute to the provision of these products will be also highly respected and demanded. This great target has been internalized by all staff, and the academic and administrative studies have continued and will continue until late at nights. New systems have been created for increasing the performances of the young instructors, their professional futures have been planned, and therefore their improvements in their careers have been guided. The current human resources have been led to activities where they can use and improve their skills. The personnel should always be ensured that they will improve themselves. Other institutions and schools have been contacted and cooperative opportunities have been created. Plans for meeting the human force which is required for the future have been made; the academic staff has been trained for the future needs. The ages, and the rates of finishing master’s and doctorate’s degree of the academic staff of Kaman MYO are listed in Table 2. 255 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo No Age MS PhD 52 OK OK 55 OK OK 35 OK 44 OK OK 42 OK OK 34 OK OK 27 OK 28 OK 28 OK 27 OK 29 OK 26 OK 25 OK 30 OK 26 OK 33 OK 29 OK 29 OK OK 28 OK OK 27 OK OK 29 OK OK 28 OK 31 OK 29 OK 30 OK 33 OK 28 OK 33 OK 32 OK 30 OK 26 OK 26 OK 29 OK 33 OK 27 OK 32 OK 27 OK 28 OK 33 OK 40 Ali Đhsan KARAYĐĞĐT Orhan ÇAKIRER Engin YÜKSEL Ebubekir KILIÇ Latif Onur UĞUR Zeynel BAŞIBÜYÜK Ahmet AKSOY Kadir Can BURÇAK Muhammed ARSLAN Mustafa KILIÇ Mehmet Fatih TEFEK Serdar KORKMAZ Đlknur BEKEM Emel Elif YARDIMCI Yasemin TAŞKIRDI Sertan AYTAÇ Göktürk ÖZTÜRK Gökhan ÖZEN Serap YALÇIN Berna ÖZALP ÖZEN Ediz Sadık KANBĐR Engin EKDUR Faih BALLI Yasin KAPLAN Emre ĐNCE Gökhan HEPYÖRÜK Şekip Esat HAYBER Barış Gürcan HAKANOĞLU Bekir YURDUGÜZEL Serkan KESER Mücella ÖZBAY Ali ÖZTÜRK Gökhan EKĐNCĐOĞLU Halil Özcan ÖZDEMĐR Fatih KESKĐNKILIÇ Başar ALTUNTAŞ Mustafa Halid KARAARSLAN Öznur ŞAKLAK Ramazan LEYLEK Murat AVAN 39 OK 41 Mehmet GÜCÜYETMEZ 30 OK 42 Nilüfer KAMAN M . Akif ALKAYA Ceyda ZERENAY Yasin YAYLAR Suzan ERTÜRK Filiz GEMĐCĐ Tuğba AKKOYUN Total Average 28 OK 44 OK 24 OK 27 OK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 43 44 45 46 47 48 Name , Family Name 31 OK 28 OK 28 OK OK OK OK OK OK 1497 31 . 2 Table 2 : Education and Ages of the academic staff of Kaman MYO. According to these data, there aren’t any academicians who did not do their master’s degree and the average age level (together with the instructors) is 31.2 . Creation of a free working environment where all kinds of positive efforts put forth by the young instructors in the educational, cultural, arts, sport and social fields, is supported . 256 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Applications and Acquisitions Some of the applications made in approach origin in the method section and some of the improvements and acquisitions have been listed as follows: Kaman MYO Total Quality Management System Kaman MYO has created and certified a Total Quality Management System since 2007. The system which is dynamically improving with the detection and development efforts made every year and which is applied in a wide range of fields can be found in many different departments of a great number of universities in Turkey. The vision of Kaman MYO is: “To be a vocational school of higher education which is a leader in Turkey and which is known all over the world”. Its mission is: “To train the technicians whose level of knowledge and skills is very high, who received a modern education, who are required in both public and private sector in the market needs, and who can fulfil their duties at a demanded quality level and on time”. See (Fig. 1) Figure 1: Certificates of Total Quality Management System. Publications: Handouts, posters, articles, reports, books Over the last 3 years, the academicians at Kaman MYO have had 7 papers that are browsed at Science Situation Index, 9 international congress notices, 36 articles in national scientific journals with referees, 8 national congress poster notices, 4 national sector reports and three scientific course books published. The instructors of Kaman MYO Construction Programme have prepared a book which has been published by Turkish Technicians Association and which is based on “The Profession of Civil Technician and Training of Civil Technicians” as a precedent in Turkey; and they have been given a letter of appreciation for their efforts by the Turkish Technicians Association . Courses, seminars, conferences, and interviews outside Kaman MYO The academicians at Kaman MYO have given training courses through conferences and seminars at the Ankara, Kayseri and Eskisehir branches of Chamber of Civil Engineers, at the central office of Turkish Contractors Association (TMB), at the central office of Turkish Employers’ Association of Construction Industries (INTES). They have also held conferences at Cicekdagi MYO University of Ahi Evran and at Ministry of Justice Kaman Prison. Courses, seminars, conferences, and interviews at Kaman MYO 257 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo In addition to the training courses in the fields of AutoCad , Net Cad , DGS Mathematics , Total Quality Management , MS Project and planning , a great number of seminars , conferences , and interviews were organized with the participation of experts in the sectors , public servants and the managers of professional unions . Among these comes the Branch Manger of Building Control by Ministry of Housing, Chairman of Ankara Project Management Association, Chairman of Union of Building Control Institutions, and the members of the Executive Committee of Turkish Technicians Association. Theatre Club, Novel Club In addition to the stage plays that the Theatre and Novel Clubs at Kaman MYO have in Kaman, they have successfully performed 4 different plays and poem concerts with 6 different themes and contents at Performance Hall of University of Ahi Evran, Mucur MYO, Cicekdagi MYO, Kirsehir Governorship, Kirsehir Prison and Kaman Prison many times. See (Fig. 2) Figure 2: Views from different performances, news from newspapers atc. Performances of Turkish Folk Music Club, Rock Music Club, Folk Dances Club After the regular concerts the Turkish Folk Music and Rock Music groups which were established in 2009 give in Kaman, they were asked to take the stage in the Spring Festivals and Graduation Ceremonies of University of Ahi Evran and they also passed the elections for the Rock Music Festival to be held among all universities in Turkey and a competition organized by a national music television. The Folk Dances Club performed waltz as well as the Azerbaijani and Caucasian dances. Celebration programmes of the national days With the performances of the art groups at Kaman MYO have so far presented and will present Kaman MYO at the celebration programmes for the national days/festivals (such as 18th March , 19th May , 23rd April 29th October) prepared within the body of Kaman MYO and University of Ahi Evran , Kaman Governorship , Kirsehir Governorship and Kirsehir Municipality . Scientific, cultural and social expeditions abroad Academicians and students at Kaman MYO have participated to represent Turkey and the University of Ahi Evran in academic, cultural and social activities held in Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, Belgium and Netherlands for the last two years and have contributed to the cultural integration activities. Furthermore, the 258 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo academicians of Kaman MYO made speeches about disarmament, decreasing the drug abuse, and nuclear wastes at Headquarters of the European Union. Technical Excursions in Turkey A great number of vocational and technical excursions have been organized to a lot of production plants, industrial plants, administrative centres, application units and fairs at local and international level so that the students have been given the opportunity to learn more about the fields they are studying and the production stages and to meet the experts in the professional sector practices. Among the places which have been visited so far comes Hirfanlı Hydroelectricity Plant , Kaman-Ankara Divided Highway Constructions, Karabuk Iron and Steel Plant , Kayseri Organized Industrial Site, Tuyap Istanbul Electronics Fair, Ankara Construction Fair, Izmir Natural Stones Fair, Production Plants of Milk, Meat and Oil, Cement factories, Ready Mixed Concrete Plants, and numerous construction sites. See (Fig. 3) Figure 3: Technical Excursions. Social and cultural excursions Excursions based on architectural history of Safranbolu Historical Houses, on culture of Nevsehir Hacibektas Veli Mausoleum and on history of Kaman Archaeological Museum; trips to near touristy and natural places have been held on holidays. MYO and MYO Student congresses/ symposiums For the first time in Turkey, two Kaman MYO students presented their notices which they had previously prepared with their instructors in front of more than 600 scientists at an international symposium, and this was on the news both on television and in the newspapers and Mayor of Kaman and the District Governor of Kaman received the notices of appraisal from Kirsehir Governor and District Governor of Izmir Seferihisar where one of the students reside. These two students at Kaman MYO also made presentations at the MYO congress which was held in Inegol, Bursa in 2009. Ten of the abstract presentations which they had prepared with their instructors were accepted for the National MYO Students Congress to be held in Duzce in November, 2010 which is the first of these congresses. The contributions of the instructors who take part in the organization of these congresses and symposiums as well as the science councils and who spend their time with their students so that they can improve themselves and produce on scientific and social fields at an international level are of great importance . Laboratories The laboratories which are required by the departments giving technical training and they are still being improved. Among these comes the Microbiological Food, Chemical Food, Natural Structural Stones, Construction Material, Concrete, Electronics and Correspondence, Printed Circuit, PLC, Electronic laboratories. See (Fig. 4) 259 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Figure 4: Different laboratories. School buildings, Structure of Cultural Centre, new TOKĐ building Kaman MYO, which continued its educational activities in an old building which used to be a pensioner house until two years ago, in line with its growth in the number of departments, instructors and students, had a new school building of 12 classrooms in February, 2008 and had a bigger building of 24 classrooms (TOKI Building) in April, 2010 as a result of giving the first building back to the Ministry of National Education and still continues its activities in these buildings . In addition to these buildings, thanks to the protocol signed, the operation rights of the Kaman Culture Centre were transferred to Kaman MYO. See (Fig. 5) Figure 5: School buildings. News in the newspapers (at local and national levels) The local press makes significant contributions to Kaman MYO and makes news on the local, national and international success, social, cultural, artistic and sports activities of Kaman MYO. This news takes part in the press of Kirsehir and national press. Columns at local newspapers The academicians at Kaman MYO continue their activities in order to open up the horizon of people in Kaman and Kirsehir, widen their scope of perspective and increase their intellectual level. Various academicians write literature critics on the column titled “Why should we read, and what should we read?” by taking turns and try to increase the level of reading habits and quality of critics. E-student newspaper On the Kaman MYO web site, an e-student newspaper, named “Sesimiz (Our Voice)” which includes the news and columns of students and the interviews with their instructors is published on a monthly basis. Academic studies about Kaman The instructors of Kaman MYO make and publish scientific researches not only in their fields of expertise but also local elections , production of walnuts and milk , housing constructions of the construction firms and their marketing activities , relationships between the Kaman public and Kaman MYO . These 260 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo activities receive great attention and support by both Kaman and Kirsehir community, Kirsehir governorship, Municipality and Chamber of Commerce, and the fields of study can be broadened. Publication of scientific journal (Ahi Evran University, Journal of Vocational Sciences) Kaman MYO is trying to complete the works related to the publication of a refereed, periodical, and scientific journal (Ahi Evran University, Journal of Vocational Sciences) which will be published within the body of Kaman MYO and it will soon be published . Therefore a dynamic platform which the publications both from Turkey and from all over the world will be met on can be formed, the developments and researches particularly from Vocational Technical Training will be contributed. Competitions for Poems and Stories, books issued Competitions for writing and reading poems and writing stories are organized open to the participation of all students of Kaman MYO, the creators of the works which are placed are awarded with a ceremony and their works are issued in books. Therefore, we try to improve the cultural and artistic capabilities of our students and try to eternalize their works by publishing them. Sports activities In addition to the football, basketball and volleyball matches organized within the body of Kaman MYO every year, the students take part in the championships held among the faculties, Vocational Schools of Higher Education and Vocational Schools within the body of University of Ahi Evran. Protocols signed with the industry The protocols signed with the industrial firms are for the aim of contributing to the internship and employment of students. All of the students of department of drilling works are ready even while they are studying; and the training places of the students of the departments of construction, food and computing programmes and employment of some of them will be realized based on the agreements made. We still continue our efforts to make new protocols with different industrial firms for the other departments. Construction of a Hotel and the University Campus; Technical consultancy services and concrete tests The Construction Programme within the body of Kaman MYO, thanks to both its modern laboratories and the experience and knowledge of its academicians, gives technical consultancy service in the construction of a five star thermal hotel whose construction is still being made in Kirsehir as well as conducts and reports a great number of tests –foremost among these comes the concrete tests- within the scope of the construction of the Ahi Evran University Campus which is still being carried out in Kirsehir. In addition it gives consultancy in the planning and control of construction projects. Establishment of a Graduate Supervision System Efforts to set up a graduate supervision system within Kaman MYO is still being made with great speed; a new vice-director is going to be appointed and a new computer software is going to be prepared in this respect . 261 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo Getting the experts in Kaman and near towns to give lectures Kaman MYO is also benefitting from the knowledge and experience of the experts in technical and administrative fields. Professional pragmatics and administrators give lectures for a term in different programmes. That the students know more about their sectors and the qualities they are required to have is aimed. This has also become very prestigious among the professionals in Kaman and Kirsehir and the demand for giving lectures has continuously increasing. Kaman MYO’s role in the administration of the township of Kaman The academicians of Kaman MYO take part in various councils in the administration of Kaman. In addition to their roles in education, they continue to give support to the local administrations. Some of these councils are Human Rights Council, Public Education Commission, Kaman Strategic Planning Council, etc. Library Kaman MYO, which has a big library, is continuously improving this library where both the academicians and the students can benefit from national and international publications. With an agreement made with the Kaman Central Library, all the students have become a member of this library and benefit from this library and its good conditions for their studies and social activities . See (Fig. 6) Figure 6: Library Teaching Foreign Languages The official foreign language which is being taught at state universities in Turkey is the English language. However, other than English, Kaman MYO is providing German, Russian and Japanese classes and courses either within the curriculum or additional courses. The students are aimed to be versatile and know the values of different cultures. Students’ opinions As a result of the polls carried out about equipments, education, social facilities, personal development, etc. , a vast majority of the students expressed that they are satisfied with their school, instructors and the level of the education they are receiving. The number of students who responded to the question whether they would like to study at a different Vocational school of higher education does not exceed 5% of the total number of students. Since the age gap between the instructors and the students is not very big, the students express that they are happy with their brother-sister relationship they have with their instructors and with their instructors’ efforts. Supporters Deputies of province of Kirsehir , Kirsehir Governorship , Kaman Municipality , Kaman District Governorship, Rectorship of University of Ahi Evran, Ministry of National Education (MEB), local press, Kaman Chamber of Commerce and benefactors support the development of Kaman MYO and contribute its becoming well-equipped, construction of new residence halls , improvement of social and cultural facilities with great satisfaction . Results and Evaluation While the quality of the education is being improved through not only the physical development but also the seminars, conferences and technical excursions organized, and the modern laboratories established, a great number of scientific articles, notices, scientific reports, original and supplementary course books produced contributed to the scientific development of the school. Within the scope of the European Union grant projects, numerous instructors and students participated in eight different countries and projects, and social integration has been increased thanks to the EU higher education and youth projects. The success gained in the sports activities within the vocational school of higher education and the university , the soft music , folk music and rock music 262 �2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9, 2010 Sarajevo concerts prepared by the student groups , high artistic values at theatre plays , musicals , and poem concerts , publication of the works of the students who were placed and got an honourable mention in the story and poem writing competitions, have all been realized thanks to the young and dynamic academic staff . Kaman MYO, which is at the top of the list among the 550 vocational schools of higher education in Turkey in a short period of time, has created a good education model. In order to achieve its goal “to be a leader in Turkey and widely known in the world”, the combination of an experienced academic staff that is devoted to the vision of Kaman MYO and has high academic values with the efforts of a junior personnel whose career goals have been clarified is deemed to be the best choice, in addition to the training of the junior staff together with the aforementioned acquisitions, we believe that the choice made and applications conducted are suitable. All kinds of achievements we made are thanks to the great efforts and devoted approach of the young academic staff. That this brings positive results to Kaman MYO as a model is well appreciated. Undoubtedly, all the achievements we have made so far have an important role but they are not sufficient for our goal. The progress we have made should be improved with the development efforts. It is expected that the development of this model with a sustainable sense of quality and taking it into account in the structuring to be carried out by other higher education institutions will have positive contributions to the global vocational and technical training efforts. References Akyol, B. (2008). The Effect Of Human Resources Functıons On Teacher Performance In Schools, Ms Thesis, Insitude of Social Sciences, Đstanbul, Yeditepe University, (in Turkish) Barutçugil, Đ. (2004). Strategic Human Resource Management, Kariyer Pulishing, Đstanbul, p.32. Arslan, M., Eraslan, L. (2003). New Education Paradigm and Necessity of the Conversion in Turkish Education System, The National Education Magazine, http://yayim.meb.gov.tr/dergiler/160/arslan-eraslan.htm, 160. Balcı, A. (2000). Organization and Management of Turkish Education System in New Millenium, Journal of Educational Management in Theory and Practice, Ankara, 24(6), p.495-508. Erdoğan, Đ. (2003). School Management and Instructional Leadership, 4. Edition, Sistem, Đstanbul, p. 114-115. Individuals and Career Management Concept, (2008). www.insankaynaklari.com Ataklı, A. N. (1996). Importance of Personel Qualities and Motivations to work in Lecturers, Contemporary Education Review, 221, s. 23-26. Emmanuel N.C. (1998). How Community College Administrators Can Improve Teaching Effectiveness, Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 22, s.1-6. 263 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 705 Title A name given to the resource An Education Structuring Model in Vocational and Technical Education with The Orijins of Young Lecturers: Kaman Vocational School Author Author Karayiğit, Ali İhsan Uğur, Latif Onur Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, it is discussed that a breakthrough approach to education with young faculty members in vocational technical education. Kaman Vocational School which was connected another university before, connected Kırsehir Ahi Evran University with a decision received in its foundation date in 2006. Continuing its tarining activities given 160 students three departments, two permanent faculty members and the others coming from nearby provinces; Kaman Vocational School has gained acceleration with a department at four years, students over 1700 and 48 faculty members and the radical decisions given by university management. Not only physical growth but while improving the quality of education with seminars, conferences, technical tours, modern laboratories, important scientific progress achieved by numerous scientific articles and reports, papers, original and alternative textbooks. Under European Union (EU) projects, it was participated with lots of faculty members and students to eight different countries and projects; the social integration increased with the EU higher education and youth arrangements. Successes in sporting activities held within the Vocational School and the university; higher artistic levels in light music, folk music, rock music concerts, theatres, musical and poetry nights prepared by student groups; publishing students’ works that take a degree and honorable mention in story and poetry writing competitions are all provided with the contributions of young and dynamic academic staff. Among over 550 Vocational School in Turkey, Kaman Vocational School that catches on the tops in a short time, constituted a sample training model. In the study, in this model and the role of young teaching staff and the added value they provide within this model is discussed with the help of related data. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2010-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f68366ec19ceeaf893fcda4439a6c3e9.docx 47ba74e0cf7f0ec428ea06cf463dc079 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d8e90c7b5eb5ea1318bd4996769128a2.pdf fc62a8532b6ff71c3d3767cdf809388f PDF Text Text An Emic Approach on the Perception of “Woman” By Woman Mistrels Işıl Altun Kocaeli University, Turkey Key Words: Minstrelsy Tradition, Woman Minstrels, Lyric Hero, Emic Approach. ABSTRACT The Minstrelsy (Âşıklık) tradition has an important place in the Turkish culture and is a live tradition which continues its existence in verbal and written cultural media from centuries ago until today. Minstrels are folk artists who act as a society spokesman, reflect the world view, taste of art, life order and traditions of the society, maintain them and serve as a bridge to pass them down to the future generations. When the tradition is considered regarding woman minstrels, and to the extent they are determined, many woman minstrels have performed their art within the minstrelsy tradition since 17th century; however, they have not been able to perform many aspects of the tradition (apprenticeship, traveler, being in the assemblies of minstrels etc); the studies on woman minstrels have been of more interest since the last quarter of the twentieth century. Woman minstrels about whom there have been inadequate studies have been considerably neglected. Minstrelsy has been seen as a man’s profession and “woman” as a theme has been widely used by the male minstrels. In the present study, starting from the folk songs of the well-known woman minstrels (like Telli Suna, Özlemi, Sarıca Kız, Didari, Şahturna, Selvinaz, Sürmelican and so on), the position of the “narrator-lyric hero” will be examined both as a subject and an object. How woman minstrels see “woman” as a narrator-lyric hero will be discussed from an ethical point of view. The social roles of woman minstrels in the tradition and the problems caused by these roles will be presented; it will also be revealed whether this affects their art as a “narrator-lyric hero”. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1998 Title A name given to the resource An Emic Approach on the Perception of “Woman” By Woman Mistrels Author Author ALTUN, Işıl Abstract A summary of the resource. Key Words: Minstrelsy Tradition, Woman Minstrels, Lyric Hero, Emic Approach. ABSTRACT The Minstrelsy (Âşıklık) tradition has an important place in the Turkish culture and is a live tradition which continues its existence in verbal and written cultural media from centuries ago until today. Minstrels are folk artists who act as a society spokesman, reflect the world view, taste of art, life order and traditions of the society, maintain them and serve as a bridge to pass them down to the future generations. When the tradition is considered regarding woman minstrels, and to the extent they are determined, many woman minstrels have performed their art within the minstrelsy tradition since 17th century; however, they have not been able to perform many aspects of the tradition (apprenticeship, traveler, being in the assemblies of minstrels etc); the studies on woman minstrels have been of more interest since the last quarter of the twentieth century. Woman minstrels about whom there have been inadequate studies have been considerably neglected. Minstrelsy has been seen as a man’s profession and “woman” as a theme has been widely used by the male minstrels. In the present study, starting from the folk songs of the well-known woman minstrels (like Telli Suna, Özlemi, Sarıca Kız, Didari, Şahturna, Selvinaz, Sürmelican and so on), the position of the “narrator-lyric hero” will be examined both as a subject and an object. How woman minstrels see “woman” as a narrator-lyric hero will be discussed from an ethical point of view. The social roles of woman minstrels in the tradition and the problems caused by these roles will be presented; it will also be revealed whether this affects their art as a “narrator-lyric hero”. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available IBU Publishing Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-03 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/343c2ec5eb4312ed2a05e390089cd768.pdf 767189a7bf17b73beda9da0240fa7492 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria Mohammed Shuaibu Department of Economics, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria Kaduna, Nigeria mohammed_shuaibu@yahoo.com Abstract: The difference between estimated parameters of money supply and currency-deposit ratio is used to examine the behaviour of real deposits in Nigeria between 1960 and 2012. This is done using unrestricted error correction modelling within the bounds testing approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Our findings revealed that inflation, real income and interest rates remain major factors influencing real deposit dynamics in Nigeria. Interestingly, financial innovation measured by the ratio of credit to the private sector and GDP was found to increase real deposits by 0.014% while the shadow economy accounted for the 0.96% fall in real deposits recorded. While interest rate and inflation remain quantitatively important in explaining longrun real deposit behaviour in Nigeria, our finding further underscores the need for monetary authorities to mainstream the informal sector into the financial system given the significant negative influence the shadow economy exerted on real deposits. Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 Keywords: Money Demand; CurrencyDeposit Ratio; Real Deposit; Cointegration; Error Correction Model; JEL Classification: E41, E51, G21 Article History Submitted: 15 October 2014 Resubmitted: 7 November 2014 Resubmitted: 23 January 2015 Accepted: 9 April 2015 http://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JECOSS15522 127 �Mohammed Shuaibu Introduction A requisite component of economic growth and development is a well-functioning financial system characterised by a banking sub-sector that efficiently intermediates between surplus and deficit holders of funds. In a developing economy like Nigeria where the non-bank component of the financial sector is limited, problems in deposit money banks (DMBs) are instantly transmitted to the rest of the economy (Olofin and Afangideh, 2008). This is in view of the fact that commercial banks facilitate a bulk of financial transactions. Nevertheless, banking dominance of the Nigerian financial system has, however, dropped as controlled financial system assets fell from 90.5% in 2006 to 78.6% in 2011 (IMF, 2013). The main sources of the banking liquidity in Nigeria are public and private sector deposits which DMBs transmit to deficit holders of funds. However, growth rate of deposits have been lopsided in recent times as the rate fell from 65% in 2008 to -11.3% and -1.6% in 2010 and 2012, respectively (International Monetary Fund, 2013). It follows therefore that a negative shock to the depositary base will inhibit the flow of credit, constrain development of domestic industries and adversely affect economic growth. Therefore, factors influencing savings’ decisions of households and firms become important determinants of a stable banking sector with particular reference to its intermediation role.i An assessment of real deposits has gained ample attention in the literature (See Tvalodze and Tchaidze, 2011 for Georgia; Kibet, Mutai, Ouma, Ouma and Owuor, 2009 for Kenya; Dadkhah and Rajen, 1988 for India; Felmingham and Qing, 2001 for Australia; Hasan, 2001 for China; Mutluer and Yasemin, 2002 for Turkey; Lucas, 1988 for US; Vega, 1998 for Spain). Similarly, the behaviour of real deposits has been analysed within the context of currency deposit ratio. In this regard, Khaskeli, Ahmed and Hyder (2013) analysed the behaviour and determinants of the currency deposit ratio in Pakistan based on the notion that an increase in currency in circulation reduces deposits and invariably, loanable funds. This is because an increase in the volume of currency in circulation implies that deposits are being withdrawn from the banks, which restrict their ability to meet investors’ credit demand. Research on the factors affecting real deposit creation in Nigeria is scanty, as inadequate attention has been given to the behaviour of real deposits with specific reference to the dynamic interaction of money supply and currency in circulation. The dominant strand of literature has focused on estimating the determinants and behaviour of real deposits (See Nwachukwu and Odigie, 2009; Odemero, 2012; Uneze, 2013; Nwachukwu and Egwaikhide, 2007, Nwachukwu, 2011) while some others have inferred real deposit behaviour on the basis of money demand models (See Aschani, 2010; Kumar, Webber and Fargher, 2010; Chukwu, Agu and Onah, 2010; Omotor, 2010; amongst others). It is against this background that this study departs from the literature by examining the behaviour of the real deposits in Nigeria by considering the difference between estimated broad money balance (money supply) and currency deposit ratio.ii 128 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria An investigation of the behavioural patterns of real deposits in Nigeria is expected to play a pivot role in formulating and fine-tuning financial sector and monetary policies, respectively. Notably, a major component of such policy considerations is increased transmission of funds to the real sector; particularly geared towards stimulating non-oil sector growth that has remained at the forefront of government’s policy objectives over the years. For an emerging economy like Nigeria with high savings and investment gaps, enhanced real deposit is critical for sustained “trickle-down” growth. This is further exacerbated by the crucial role of domestic saving mobilisation in the sustenance of domestic saving-investment-growth chain in developing economies (Nwachukwu, 2011). Moreover, the level of domestic saving and its determinants will not only help ascertain the policy variables that should be considered in macroeconomic policy formulation, but stimulate the much needed credit for real sector development. The empirical analysis is premised on annual data between 1960 and 2012. We utilise the bounds testing approach to cointegration, developed by Pesaranet al. (2001) within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, to test for a long-run level relationship. The bound testing approach has certain advantages in comparison to other cointegration procedures (such as Engle and Granger, 1987; Johansen and Juselius, 1990). Firstly, endogeneity problems and inability to test hypotheses on the estimated coefficients in the long-run associated with the Engle-Granger (1987) method are avoided. Secondly, the long and short-run parameters of the model in question are estimated simultaneously. Lastly, the approach is relieved of the burden of establishing the order of integration amongst the variables and of pre-testing for unit root. The study is organised as follows: Section two examines the trend and behaviour of real deposits in Nigeria while Section three discusses the related literature. Analytical framework and estimation techniques are explored in Section four while Section 5 concludes and highlights policy implications. Facts about Real Deposits and its Potential Determinants A remarkable development in the Nigerian financial sector that is directly related to real deposits formation is the recent increase in electronic (e-card transactions). The value and volume increased accordingly from 195,525,568 and N1,072.90 billion in 2010 to 355,252,401 and N1,671.4 billion in 2011, reflecting an increase of 81.5% and 55.8%, respectively. A plausible explanation for this jump is the increased confidence in electronic card payments. Data on various e-payment channels indicated that ATMs remained the most patronised, accounting for 97.8%, followed by web payments, 1.0 percent, Point-of-Sale (POS) terminals, and mobile payments, 0.6% each (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2011). Likewise, in value terms, ATMs accounted for 93.4%, web 3.5%, Point of Sale (POS) 1.9% and mobile payments, 1.2% (ibid.). The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) annual report and statement of accounts 2011 revealed that the number of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) stood at 9,640, while the volume and value of transactions amounted to 347,569,999 and N1,561.75 billion, at end-December 2011, respectively. According to the report, these figures reflected increases of 86.7% and 63.7%, respectively, over the volume and value of186,153,142 Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 129 �Mohammed Shuaibu and N954.04 billion, in 2010.Likewise, the volume and value of mobile payments increased by 215.6 and 185.8% from1,156,553 and N6.7 billion to 3,649,374 and N19.0 billion, respectively, at end-December 2011. The level of financial innovation may have accounted for the increased deposits recorded. Illustratively, aggregate financial savings rose by N427.9 billion or 6.7% to N6,858.5 billion, compared with N6,430.6 billion in 2010. The ratio of financial savings to GDP was 18.8%, compared with 32.9% in 2010. The DMBs remained the dominant depository institutions within the financial system and accounted for 95.2% of the total financial savings, compared with 92.6% in the preceding year. Other savings institutions, namely, the PMBs, life insurance funds, the pension funds, the Nigerian Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF), and microfinance banks accounted for the balance of 4.8%. The depth of the financial system (M2 to gross domestic product ratio) fell to 36.4% down from the 42.7% and 39.5% recorded in 2009 and 2010, respectively while the ratio of private sector credit to gross domestic product (GDP) (bank financing of the economy) stood at 53.1% compared with the 58.8% observed in 2010. In addition, the intermediation efficiency indicator, as measured by the ratio of currency outside banks to broad money supply, at 9.4%, remained the same as at 2010.The ratio of financial savings to GDP declined to 17.9%, from 20.2% in the preceding year. The ratio of CIC to GDP (volume of cash in circulation) declined slightly to 4.3% from 4.7%recorded in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Similarly, the size of the DMBs’ assets relative to the size of the economy, indicated by the ratio of DMBs total assets to GDP, declined slightly from 58.8% at end-December 2010 to 53.1% in 2011. Figure 1. Monetary Aggregates and Measures of Financial/Banking Developments Aggregates (N’ Billion) 2006 2007 2008 Nominal GDP 18,709.6 20,657.3 24,296.3 24,712.7 29,108.0 36,531.9 Broad money (M2) 4,027.9 5,809.8 9,166.8 10,767.4 11,488.7 13,300.3 Quasi Money (Savings) 1,747.3 2,693.6 4,309.5 5,763.5 5,954.3 6,531.9 Currency in circulation (CIC) 779.3 960.8 1,155.3 1,181.5 1,378.0 1,565.8 Currency Outside banks (COB) 650.9 737.9 892.8 927.2 1,082.2 1,244.8 Credit to Private Sector (CPS) 2,650.8 5,056.7 8,059.5 10,206.1 9,703.7 12,934.3 DMBs Assets 7,172.9 10,981.7 15,919.6 15,522.9 17,331.6 19,396.6 CBN Assets 10,034.5 8,689.0 10,204.0 8,898.4 8,767.7 15,796.1 Banking System Assets 17,207.4 19,670.7 26,123.5 27,726.8 26,230.0 28,164.3 130 2009 2010 2011 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria Monetary Ratio (%) M2/GDP 21.5 28.1 37.7 43.6 39.1 36.4 CIC/ M2 19.3 16.5 12.6 11.0 12.0 11.8 COB/ M2 16.2 12.7 9.7 8.6 9.4 9.4 Quasi Money/ M2 43.4 46.4 47.0 53.5 51.7 49.1 CIC/GDP 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.3 CPS/GDP 14.3 24.5 33.2 41.3 58.8 53.1 CPS/Non-Oil GDP 13.7 38.5 55.4 67.2 50.2 58.7 DMBs Assets/GDP 22.1 53.2 65.5 70.9 58.8 53.1 CBN’s Assets/GDP 38.3 48.6 35.8 41.3 30.2 24.0 BSA/GDP 23.6 95.2 107.5 112.2 88.9 77.1 FS/GDP 92.0 12.9 17.5 22.8 20.2 17.9 Source: Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Report and Statement of Account (2008, 2011) Although the Nigerian financial sector has particularly in the last decade evolved, many questions regarding real deposit formation and its underlying determinants remain unanswered. Although banking reforms undertaken in 2004 (banking sector consolidation) and the progress made subsequently in the regulatory framework with respect to enhanced risk management have led to a stable financial sector, real deposits have remained relatively low recording only marginal increments. Stable growth as well as improvement in governments’ fiscal position has mitigated the economy’s exposure to risks. This has resulted in the financial sector being a major driver of the Nigerian economy even in the absence of requisite credit to finance real sector funding deficit. Review of Related Literature There is a huge pool of studies relating to money demand and currency-deposit that to assess their determinants. Some authors have focused on estimating money demand functions such as Odularu and Okunrinboye (2009), Achsani (2010), Kumar, Webber and Fargher (2010), Chukwu, Agu and Onah (2010), Omotor (2011), Tvalodze and Tchaidze (2011)found an the existence of a stable money demand functions. However, efforts by Nwachukwu and Odigie (2009), Uneze (2013), Odemero (2012), Kibetet al. (2009), Nwachukwu and Egwaikhide (2007), Khaskheliet al. (2013) and Nwachukwu (2011) have also estimated deposit equations to ascertain its driving factors. Nwachukwu and Egwaikhide (2007) examined the determinants of private saving in Nigeria by comparing estimation outcomes of an error correction model with results from partial adjustment, growth rate and static models. Based on their findings, they conclude that the error correction model performs better than the other models. Its results reveal that saving rate rises with the level of disposable income but falls with Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 131 �Mohammed Shuaibu the rate of growth of disposable income. The real interest rate on bank deposits has a significant negative impact while public saving did not crowd-out private saving. Furthermore, external terms of trade, inflation rate and external debt service ratio had a positive impact on private saving. Kibetet al. (2009) also investigated the underlying factors that influence savings among groups- teachers, entrepreneurs and farmers- in rural parts of Nakuru District of Kenya. The sample comprised of 359 teachers, entrepreneurs and farmers which, were selected through multi-stage sampling technique from seven rural administrative divisions of the district. Using least squares method the study found that type of occupation, household income, age and gender of household head, level of education, dependency ratio, service charge determine household saving, transport costs and credit access. Finger and Hesse (2009) examined the determinants of commercial bank deposits in Lebanon. They found that domestic factors such as economic activity, prices, and the interest differential between the Lebanese pound and the U.S. dollar are significant in explaining deposit demand, as are external factors such as the economic and financial conditions of developed countries as well as variables that measure the availability of funds in the Gulf. Impulse response functions and variance decomposition analyses underscore the relative importance of the external variables.iii Nwachukwu and Odigie (2009), predicated on the life cycle hypothesis, examined the determinants and trend of private saving in Nigeria during the period 1970 – 2007 by considering the effects of a group of policy and non-policy variables on private saving (income growth, interest rate, fiscal policy, and financial development). Relying on error correction modelling approach, the results revealed that saving rate rises with both the growth rate of disposable income and real interest rate on bank deposits. However, public saving seems not to crowd-out private saving while the degree of financial depth was found to have a negative but insignificant impact on saving. Odularu and Okunrinboye (2009) tried to ascertain whether financial innovations that occurred in Nigeria after the SAP of 1986 affected the demand for money in Nigeria using Engle and Granger two-step cointegration technique. While the study revealed that income is positively related to the demand for cash balances and interest rate inversely related to demand for real cash balances, it also showed that the financial innovations have not significantly affected demand for money in Nigeria. This may be attributed to the fact that a financial innovation does not directly affect money demand and the expected channel of effect is through real deposits. This issue was addressed by Tvalodze and Tchaidze (2011) in their study of deposit formation in Georgia. The authors modelled the demand for the real broad money balances and the cash-deposit ratio between the period 1996 and 2009. Their findings suggested that the main factors that affected deposits were income, development of the financial sector and changes in the tax burden, while changes in the interest rate and inflation played a minor role. The results also showed that geopolitical events affect banking sector confidence. 132 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria Nwachukwu (2011) discusses the trend in Nigerian saving behaviour and reviews policy options to increase domestic saving. It also examined the determinants of private saving in Nigeria during the period1970–2010. Employing error correction modelling, the study revealed that saving rate rises with both the growth rate of disposable income and the real interest rate on bank deposits. The result also revealed that public saving did not crowd out private saving; suggesting that government policies aimed at improving the fiscal balance has the potential of bringing about a substantial increase in the national saving rate. The degree of financial depth had a negative but insignificant impact on saving behaviour in Nigeria. Odemero (2012) investigated the dual determinants of savings mobilisation among agri-business entrepreneurial self- help groups in Edo state, Nigeria and data for the study was based on questionnaires issued to 96 agro-allied businesses. The data was analysed using descriptive statistics (percentages, mean, and other statistical tools) and inferential statistics (multiple regression analysis). The result showed that interest rate, farm income and age distribution of savers significantly (5%) contributed to saving mobilisation. Uneze (2013) assessed how socio-economic factors of farmer-members of cooperative in agricultural group lending scheme influence their decisions to make financial savings with their cooperatives. The focus of the study was on Anambra state and data was sourced from 296 farmer-members of cooperative societies randomly selected from National Programme for Food Security (NPFS) and Rural Finance Institution Building Programme (RUFIN) agricultural group lending schemes. The study relied on descriptive statistics such as frequency distribution, percentages and means to analyse the data. The results showed that about 43.1% of the total variation in deposit mobilisation was explained by the 10 socio-economic variables included in the model. The significant variables affecting deposit mobilisation in cooperatives by farmers in the group leading scheme were value of assets, off-farm income, age of household head, level of farm diversification and total value of farmer’s loan. Khaskheli et al. (2013) assessed the driving factors underlying the significant increase in currency deposits ratio since. The authors found a negative relationship between currency and total private sector deposits which confirmed that an increase in currency depletes deposits, which in turn inhibits economic growth by restricting supply of loanable funds. Digging further, using graphical analysis, they attempt assess determinants of currency deposits ratio and revealed that inflation, government budgetary borrowing, industrial production index, investment in national saving schemes, remittances inflow, and wheat procurement were found to be the prominent factors behind increasing currency deposits ratio. Nwankwo, Ewuim and Asoya (2013) assessed the effect of cooperatives on the savings behaviour of members in Oyi LGA of Anambra State Nigeria with data from 195 randomly selected members of various credit cooperatives. Utilising descriptive and multiple regression analysis the study showed that cooperative membership had a positive impact on savings behaviour of members. The study found that older members Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 133 �Mohammed Shuaibu had more savings than newer members. The marginal propensity to save (MPS) of 9.3% was significant as it showed that rural dwellers were more inclined towards saving. Length of membership in cooperative was also found to be an important determinant of savings thus confirming that older members saved more. Methodology Analytical Framework and Model Specification Economic theory gives no a priori specification as to the correct functional form of the demand for money relation (Mills, 1978). Nevertheless, the foundation of money demand functions is rooted in the simple money demand model which postulates that demand for money depends on income and is algebraically expressed as: Invoking the Keynesian approach and including interest rate (r) as a measure of the implicit cost of holding real cash balances rather than a wide range of interest-bearing assets as well as income (Y), as a measure of the transaction demand for money yields; Taking the logarithm results in This implies that the demand for real balances (M) is a function of income and interest rate. Apriori, and While this approach has been adopted in various studies, it independently and explicitly fails to account for factors affecting households’ savings decisions which are important determinants of overall financial system stability. As noted by Tvalodze and Tchaidze (2011), decisions made by households and firms on allocation of financial resources are significantly affected by the country’s economic conditions and subsequently, depositors’ behaviour based on these decisions, impacts on liquidity available to DMBs. This invariably affects the stability of the financial sector. Ezema (2009) noted that in the Nigerian monetary policy framework, although the currency-deposit ratio is a function of the cash preferences of the economic agents, it may be sensitive to interest rate movements. In this regard, Cagan (1965), Boughton and Elmus (1979), Dadkhah and Rajen (1988), Hasan (2001) examined the behaviour of currency-deposit ratio considering the role of interest rates and income.. This study is predicated on the following identity: RD = RBM - CDR (1) Where denotes real deposits while RBM and denote real money balances and curren- 134 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria cy-deposit ratio, respectively. Real broad money balance ( is modelled as a decreasing function of interest rate (r) and an increasing function of income (Y) and is presented as; (2) iv However, we adopt the specification of Tvalodze and Tchaidze (2011) by augmenting equation 2 with inflation which represents the opportunity costs of holding money with respect to real assets and is expected to have a negative coefficient. (3) Other variables are as earlier defined while and represent inflation rate and the error term (assumed to be white noise), respectively. In the literature, the currency-deposit ratio is modelled as a function of income growth (Hasan, 2001), opportunity cost of holding currency or nominal interest rate (Dadkhah and Mookerjee, 1988), inflation (Tvalodze and Tchaidze, 2011), financial sophistication (Cagan, 1965) and spread of the shadow economy (Mathews, 1982). The cash-deposit ratio model is specified as follows; (4) All variables are as earlier defined. and denote the effective tax burden measure and level of financial innovation. As income (Y) rises, the share of deposits increase and thus, the ratio fall. Likewise the increase in nominal interest rate (r) reduces the attractiveness of holding currency relative to deposits and invariably reduces the currency-deposit ratio. Inflation is also an indirect function of the ratio while an increase in the range of available liquid financial assets reduces domestic demand for currency. Lastly, transactions in the informal economy tend to be in form of cash since bank records could lead to detection by the tax authorities. Thus, it is expected that the demand for cash will vary directly with the average rate of tax, which, stimulates the shadow economy. The following dynamics of the model is rooted in the work of Tvalodze and Tchaidze (2011). Recall from equation 1; a real deposit is the difference between real broad money balances and real currency. Assume equations 3 and 4 are re-expressed as follows; (5) (6) Where is a vector of independent variables in the real broad money equation while is a vector of explanatory variables in the currency-deposit ratio equation. RCIC and RD refer to real currency in circulation and real deposits, respectively. Recall from equation 1 that and therefore, Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 135 �Mohammed Shuaibu (7) Substituting equations 5 and 6 into equation 7 results in; (8) (9) (10) (11) Log-linearising equation 11 results in; (12) Estimation Technique Deposit formation is calibrated using a three-step procedure: (i) estimation of the money demand function (ii) estimation of the currency-deposit ratio; and (iii) real deposits is characterised on the basis of the output of (i) and (ii) above. We propose to use the bounds testing approach to co integration proposed by Pesaranet al. (2001).v This approach has several advantages over other cointegration techniques. It eliminates the burden of having to establish the order of integration amongst the variables and/or pre-testing for unit roots. The ARDL approach to testing for the existence of a longrun relationship between the variables in levels is applicable irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are purely I(0), purely I(1), or fractionally integrated. Also, the approach is applicable to studies using data with limited time coverage. The ARDL representation of equation (3) and (4) are: (13) (14) Where represent the first differences of real money balances, currency in circulation, income, interest rate, inflation, effective tax burden 136 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria and financial innovation respectively. The bounds test is a Wald Test (or F-test) in which the joint significance of coefficients for lagged variables is tested with F-statistics calculated based on the null hypothesis. The distribution of the test statistics under the null is non-standard, in which critical values depend on the order of integration of variables involved. The joint significance test with respect to equations (13) and (14) is conducted based on the following hypothesis: Based on Monte Carlo simulation, Pesaranet al. (2001) tabulates asymptotic critical values, depending on whether or not drift and/or time trend terms are included as well as the number of independent variables. Given the number of independent variables, if all variables are I(0), the critical value approaches a minimum and, if they are all I(1), the corresponding critical value becomes a maximum. In the case of a mixture of integrating order, the critical value falls between a minimum and a maximum. Therefore, if the calculated F-statistics under the null is located outside the maximum, the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected, while if it is located inside the minimum, the null is not rejected. Finally, if the test statistics falls between them, one cannot draw a conclusive decision. In this case, further investigation based on more information about orders of integration is required to reach a definite conclusion. Finally, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of squares (CUSUMSQ) stability tests based on the recursive regression residuals are carried out to determine the stability of the model. Data Issues Annual dataset between 1960 and 2012 is utilised. The data is sourced from the Central Bank (CBN) of Nigeria statistical bulletin (2011) and various issues of the annual report and statement of account. The price level CPI (INF) is used to capture inflation while real GDP is used to capture real income (RGDP). Money supply defined as sum of money outside banks and deposits denominated in local and foreign currency is used (RBM). The nominal rate of return of broad money is captured by nominal interest rate (NIR). Financial sophistication of the economy is captured by the credit to the private sector-GDP ratio (CPGR) since more appropriate measures such as debit and credit cards in circulation, automated teller machines, point of sale machines etc are not readily available over a long period of time (CPGR). The shadow economy effect is captured by the ratio of tax revenues to the nominal GDP (TRGR). All the variables excluding ratios and rates are in logarithmic form. Empirical Analysis and Discussion of Results The summary statistics and correlation analysis of variables used in the estimation are presented in Tables 2 and 3. The average values of the nominal rate of return on deposit (NIR), inflation (INF), log of real broad money (lnRBM) and log of real GDP (lnRGDP) Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 137 �Mohammed Shuaibu during the period used in the study are 9.38%, 16.38%, 9.44 and 12.12 respectively. Currency-deposit ratio (CDR), nominal interest rate (NIR), total revenue-GDP ratio (TRGR) and private sector credit-GDP ratio (CPGR) recorded mean values of 0.85, 9.4, 0.1 and 14.72, respectively. During the period under review, the minimum and maximum values of inflation were -3.37% and 72.84% which was significantly above values recorded for other variables. The lowest minimum and maximum values were observed for tax revenue-GDP ratio with 0.04 and 0.24, respectively. Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of Variables used in Estimation INF lnRBM lnRGDP CDR NIR TRGR CPGR Mean 16.38 9.44 12.12 0.85 9.38 0.09 14.72 Median 11.58 9.58 11.14 0.72 8.00 0.07 12.46 Maximum 72.84 11.22 17.33 1.84 26.00 0.24 51.66 Minimum -3.73 7.82 7.71 0.20 3.46 0.04 4.78 Std. Dev. 16.27 0.93 3.25 0.44 5.44 0.05 9.67 Skewness 1.80 -0.05 0.19 0.64 0.80 1.57 2.01 Kurtosis 5.73 2.48 1.66 2.58 2.90 4.06 7.31 Jarque-Bera 45.06 0.62 4.32 3.99 5.62 24.27 76.69 Probability 0.00 0.73 0.12 0.14 0.06 0.00 0.00 868.14 500.10 642.29 45.18 497.02 4.62 780.15 44.68 548.00 9.92 1539.97 0.15 4860.07 53 53 53 53 53 53 Sum Sum Sq. Dev. 13771.73 Observations 53 Table 3. Correlation Analysis of Variables used in Estimation CDR CPGR INF NIR lnMS lnRGDP TRGR CD 1.00 -0.63 -0.11 -0.23 -0.75 -0.71 0.70 CPSG -0.63 1.00 -0.02 0.04 0.66 0.60 -0.28 INF -0.11 -0.02 1.00 0.47 0.19 0.19 -0.36 IR -0.23 0.04 0.47 1.00 0.54 0.55 -0.38 MS -0.75 0.66 0.19 0.54 1.00 1.00 -0.54 RGDP -0.71 0.60 0.19 0.55 1.00 1.00 -0.53 TRG 0.70 -0.28 -0.36 -0.38 -0.54 -0.53 1.00 Long-run and Contemporaneous Dynamics In order to ascertain the existence of a long run relationship among the variables in equations (13) and (14), the F-statistic (Wald test) for the bounds test was computed. The F-statistic and critical bounds values for testing the null hypothesis of no cointegrating relationship are reported in Table 4. The computed F-statistics of 5.40 and 4.30 in both models were found to exceed the lower and upper bounds critical 138 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria values at the 5% significance level using the critical values provided by Pesaranet al. (2001). Therefore, the null of no cointegration is rejected. This implies that the variables in equations 13 and 14 are cointegrated. Table 4. Bound Testing for Cointegrationvi Critical Bound F-stat Lower Upper k Model 1 (Equation 13) 5.40 3.47 4.45 3 Model 1 (Equation 14) 4.30 3.03 4.06 4 The long run coefficients are presented in Table 5. In the case of model 1, the estimated long run elasticities for interest rate (NIR) and income (RGDP) are 0.532 and -0.015 respectively. Both estimated elasticities have the expected signs but only real income was statistically significant at the 5% level of significance. For example, our results suggest that a 1% increase in real income (RGDP) will increase real broad money (RBM) by 0.53% while an increase in the opportunity cost of holding money will reduce real money demand (RBM) by 0.015%. Unexpectedly, our results also showed that a 1% increase in inflation engenders an infinitesimal 0.008% decrease in money demand. Nevertheless, inflation was found to be insignificant in explaining money demand. The currency deposit equation expressed in model 2 revealed that the degree of responsiveness of the currency-deposit ratio (CD) to income and interest rate are 0.493% and 0.107% and are both statistically significant. The financial innovation measure, captured by credit to the private sector to GDP ratio (CPSG) was positive and statistically significant at the 5% level. The measure of the shadow economy (TRG) was also positive but statistically insignificant. Table 5. Estimated Long-run Coefficients Model 1 (Dep. Var.: RBM Variable Model 2 (Dep. Var.:CD Coefficient Prob. Constant 1.220 0.081 Trend 0.120 0.000 lnRGDP 0.532 NIR INF Variable Coefficient Prob. Constant -2.246 0.035 Trend -0.163 0.001 0.000 lnRGDP 0.493 0.005 -0.015 0.170 NIR 0.107 0.000 -0.008 0.843 CPSG 0.037 0.008 TRG 0.480 0.753 Notes: ARDL (2,0,0,1) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion. The estimates of the error correction model are presented in models 1 and 2 of Table 6. Evidently, the results of the long-run estimates are not supported except for inflation whose coefficient was negative and statistically significant. From model 1, the coefficient of the first difference of income and real money demand were both statistically significant with coefficient values of 0.141% and -0.004%, respectively. In Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 139 �Mohammed Shuaibu the short run, the effect of the first difference of inflation is significant and negatively related to money demand as a 1% increase in price will reduce money demand by 0.003% in Nigeria. In model 2, the short run estimates of the currency-deposit equation are presented. While the first difference of real income is found to be negatively related to currency deposit ratio, interest rate was found to be positively related to currency deposit ratio. Both findings were statistically significant. However, a pertinent observation is the negative effect of the first difference of the one period lagged value of nominal interest rate which was found to be negative and statistically significant. However, contrary to expectation, financial deepening or innovation did not have the expected negative effect on currency-deposit ratio as the Nigerian financial system, despite significant deepening, is faced with high currency in circulation and less deposits.vii In other words, a 1% increase in the depth of the financial sector induced a 0.004% increase currency-deposit ratio. The error correction terms ect(-1) in both models are negative and statistically significant, thus corroborating the results of the cointegration tests which suggested the existence of a long run relationship between the variables. The error correction value of -0.265 in model 1and -0.359 in model 2 indicates that 26.5%and 35.9% of the previous year’s deviation from long run equilibrium will be restored within a year. Table 6. Error Correction Representation of ARDL Model Model 1 (Dep. Var.: D(RBM)) Variable Coefficient T-Ratio (Prob.) C @TREND D(lnRGDP) D(NIR) D(INF) ect(-1) 0.323 0.032 0.141 -0.004 -0.003 -0.265 1.161(0.114) 3.331(0.002) 4.102(0.000) -1.311(0.196) 2.751(0.009) -5.241(0.000) R-Squared Adj R-Squared S.E. of Regresion F-Statistic Prob. (F-Statistic) DW-Statistic 0.67 0.62 0.08 14.58 0.00 2.09 Model 2 (Dep. Var.: D(CD)) Variable Coefficient T-Ratio(Prob.) C @TREND D(lnRGDP) D(NIR) D(NIR(-1)) D(TRG) D(CPSG) ect(-1) -0.805 -0.058 -0.041 0.001 -0.024 -0.96 0.014 -0.359 -2.338(0.024) -3.804(0.000) -3.364(0.718) 0.320(0.750) -3.319(0.002) -1.735(0.090) 3.600(0.001) -4.070(0.000) R-Squared Adj R-Squared S.E. of Regresion F-Statistic Prob. (F-Statistic) DW-Statistic 0.5 0.38 0.1 5.8 0.00 2.44 Notes: 51 observations (1962-2012) were used and ARDL (1,1,2,1,0) was selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion. 140 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria The diagnostic tests of our model revealed no evidence of serial correlation. The model passes the Jarque-Bera normality tests suggesting that the errors are normally distributed. The RESET test indicates that the model is correctly specified while the F-forecast test indicates the predictive power of the model. Finally, the adjusted R-square of 0.67 (model 1) and 0.56 (model 2) indicate that 67% and 56% of the variation in broad money and currency-deposit ratio is explained by the independent variables in the respective models. Also, the Durbin-Watson statistic in both models is approximately 2. The outcome of these statistical diagnostic tests suggests the model is well behaved. The model also satisfies the stability test- the CUSUM of recursive residuals (Figure 1) and the CUSUMQ of recursive residuals tests (Figure 2) of structural stability. Both figures show that the parameters of the model are stable during the sample period. Model 1 Stability Test 1.4 20 1.2 15 1.0 10 0.8 5 0.6 0 0.4 -5 0.2 -10 0.0 -15 -0.2 -0.4 1975 1980 1985 1990 CUSUM of Squares 1995 2000 2005 2010 -20 1975 1980 1985 1990 CUSUM 5% Significance 1995 2000 2005 2010 5% Significance Model 2 Stability Test 1.4 20 1.2 15 1.0 10 0.8 5 0.6 0 0.4 -5 0.2 -10 0.0 -15 -0.2 -0.4 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 CUSUM of Squares 5% Significance -20 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 CUSUM 5% Significance In order to obtain the final specification for real deposits, invoking equation 1, we combine two equations as stipulated in the identity represented by equation 1. The resulting equation yields; Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 141 �Mohammed Shuaibu This equation reveals that the degree of responsiveness of real deposits to changes in income is 0.182%. This implies that people increase their deposits as the economy expands. Unexpectedly, interest rates and its one period lagged value were found to be negatively related to real deposits while inflation, in line with theoretical expectation was found to negatively affect deposits. The effect of financial innovation is marginal but positive as increased financial sophistication spurred deposits. The reason for this outcome may be the growing financial innovations provided by DMBs and the cashless policy pursued by the central bank of Nigeria, which increases the attractiveness of deposits relative to cash. Another plausible explanation for the very low coefficient observed is that in Nigeria, security of e-banking and e-payment services remains an issue of concern to depositors as it would take time to adjust to such technological changes and innovations in the banking sector. Notably, the shadow economy had a negative effect on deposit formation in Nigeria. Conclusion The paper assessed the formation of real deposits in the Nigerian banking sector between 1960 and 2012. Real deposit was modelled as an identity that captures the difference between an estimated money demand and currency-deposit ratio models. The ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and unrestricted error correction model was used to ascertain the long- and short-run relationships. Our findings showed that inflation, real income, money supply and financial depth where negatively related to depositary base. This implies that if prices are high, real deposits will fall while higher incomes, contrary to theory led to a fall in deposits. A deeper financial system characterised by innovations increases the incentive to save. The one-period lagged value of the currency-deposit ratio and interest rate where found to be positive functions of real deposits. In other words, higher interest rates enhance saving behaviour. Evidently, financial innovation, domestic price and interest rate play a significant role in real deposit behaviour. The effect of income did not conform to theory as it exerted a negative effect on depositary base and we expected that higher incomes should enhance savings. However, this was not the case in Nigeria and this may be partly explained by the general increase in prices and low purchasing power occasioned by high inequality and poverty which negatively affects real deposit behaviour of households. A major implication of our finding is the need to increase access to financial services as a deepened financial system was found to significantly influence depositors’ saving behaviour even though the coefficient was low. In addition, reducing the financial transactions through the informal sector may spur real deposits as our measure of the shadow economy negatively affected real deposit formation. Also, government may consider the pursuit of labour-intensive policies that create wealth thereby increasing disposable incomes and encouraging deposits. 142 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria References Achsani, N. A. (2010). Stability of money demand in an emerging market economy: An error correction and ARDL model for Indonesia. Research Journal of International Studies, 13, 54.-62. Ajayi, I. S. (1977).Some empirical evidence on the demand for money in Nigeria.The American Economist, 21(1), 51-54 Boughton, J. M. & Elmus R. W. (1979). The behavior of the currency-deposit ratio during the great depression,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 2(4), 405-18. Cagan, P. (1965). Demand for currency relative to the total money supply, Journal of Political Economy, 66, 303-329. Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) (2009). Annual report and statement of account Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) (2011). 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Socio-economic determinants of savings in cooperatives by farmers of Selected agricultural group lending schemes in Anambra state, Nigeria, Greener Journal of Agricultural Sciences 3(5), 384-390. Vega, J.L. (1998). Money demand and stability: Evidence from Spain, Empirical Economics, 23(3), 387-400. Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 145 �Mohammed Shuaibu Appendix Table A1: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Estimates Model 1viii Model 2ix Variable Coefficient T-Stat (Prob) Variable Coefficient T-Stat (Prob) c @trend MS(-1) MS(-2) RGDP IR INF INF(-1) 0.323 0.032 1.156 -0.421 0.141 -0.004 0.003 -0.003 1.612 (0.114) 3.331(0.002) 9.329(0.000) -3.811(0.000) 4.102(0.000) -1.312(0.197) 2.751(0.009) -3.099(0.003) c @trend CD(-1) RGDP RGDP(-1) IR IR(-1) IR(-2) TRG TRG(-1) CPSG -0.805 -0.058 0.641 -0.04 0.218 0.002 0.013 0.024 -0.96 1.132 0.013 -2.338(0.024) -3.804(0.000) 7.278(0.000) -0.364(0.718) 2.089(0.043) 0.320(0.750) 1.826(0.075) 3.319(0.002) -1.735(0.091) 2.353(0.024) 3.600(0.001) Diagnostic Tests R-Squared 0.99 R-Squared 0.95 Adj. R-Squared 0.99 Adj. R-Squared 0.94 S.E. Regression 0.08 S.E. Regression 0.10 F-Stat. 13.90 F-Stat. 76.25 Prob. (F-Stat.) 0.00 Prob. (F-Stat.) 0.00 DW-Statistic 2.09 DW-Statistic LM Version F Version 0.300(0.58) 0.249(0.621) Functional Form 2.859(0.09) 2.495(0.122) Normality 1.131(0.57) Heteros. 0.093(0.76) Serial Correlation 2.44 LM Version F Version Serial Correlation 3.993(0.046) 3.313(0.076) Functional Form 3.892(0.049) 3.222(0.080) na Normality 50.978(0.000) na 0.089(0.766) Heteros. 8.435(0.004) 9.710(0.003) This stability is affected as liquidity of DMBs is influenced by depositors’ saving and investment decisions which, are in turn influenced by domestic macroeconomic conditions and external shocks. i 146 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria This is further reinforced by the effectiveness of money demand and currency deposit ratio parameters in explaining real deposit behavior (See Tvalodze and Tchaidze, 2011 for a lucid exposition of the linkages). iii At the micro level, the authors also found that bank-specific variables such as perceived riskiness of individual banks, liquidity buffers, loan exposure, and interest margins significantly influence demand for deposits. iv It is pertinent to note that inflation and real interest rate enter the model independently in a bid to distinguish between two effects: the interest rate on deposit is the rate of return on broad money with an expected positive sign, while inflation represents the implicit cost of holding money relative to real assets with an expected negative sign. v Also, the Engle and Granger (1987) co-integration test and the Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) co integration test, which may not may not be appropriate, especially when a small sample size is considered (see, Narayan and Smyth 2005). vi No trend and intercept were considered in models 1 and 2. Table C1.v: Case V with unrestricted Intercept and unrestricted trend Pesaran et al. (2001). vii There are at least two economic costs of currency in circulation that need to be highlighted. First, an increase in currency in circulation implies a decline in deposits and consequently a decrease in the availability of loanable funds for investment by restricting credit creation which is crucial for economic growth. Second, a rise in currency in circulation signals inflationary pressures (Khaskheli et al. 2013). viii ARDL(2,0,0,1) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion. ix ARDL (1,1,2,1,0) selected based on Schwarz Bayesian Criterion. ii Volume 5 Number 2 Fall 2015 147 �� Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2924 Title A name given to the resource An Empirical Analysis of Real Deposits in Nigeria Author Author Shuaibu, Mohammed Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: The difference between estimated parameters of money supply and currency-deposit ratio is used to examine the behaviour of real deposits in Nigeria between 1960 and 2012. This is done using unrestricted error correction modelling within the bounds testing approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Our findings revealed that inflation, real income and interest rates remain major factors influencing real deposit dynamics in Nigeria. Interestingly, financial innovation measured by the ratio of credit to the private sector and GDP was found to increase real deposits by 0.014% while the shadow economy accounted for the 0.96% fall in real deposits recorded. While interest rate and inflation remain quantitatively important in explaining long-run real deposit behaviour in Nigeria, our finding further underscores the need for monetary authorities to mainstream the informal sector into the financial system given the significant negative influence the shadow economy exerted on real deposit Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2015 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/a7c0f941174ac3516a6bd63513705177.pdf 8d9519afa034977c417019bf7b10cf50 PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo An Empirical Analysis of Turkish Financial Crises in the Early 2000’s. Đsmail ÖZSOY Prof. Dr., Fatih University, Dept.of Economics, Turkey iozsoy@fatih.edu.tr, ismailozsoy@yahoo.com Birol GÖRMEZ Research Asst., Fatih University, Dept.of Economics, Turkey bgormez@fatih.edu.tr, bgormez@hotmail.com Abstract: The financing scheme has a crucial function in an economy since it enables fundowners to transfer their funds to those in need. Unless the financing scheme operates effectively, economic growth is hampered severely due to the inadequacy or immobility of capital. The world finance history has experienced many financial crises, the case of malfunction of the financing scheme, repeatedly so far. Many theories and models have been developed to give an insight into the reasons and dissemination mechanisms of, and precautions against the financial crises. This paper is intended to find out the explanatory variables of the Turkish financial crises that took place in November 2000 and February 2001 with the help of the method of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and within the framework of the models of financial crises. To this effect, the models of financial crises are briefly dealt with; the Turkish financial crises in the early 2000’s are analyzed subsequently by making use of ANN. Key Words: Turkish Financial Crisis, Financial Crisis Models, Artificial Neural Network Introduction Nearly all people would like to have an uninterrupted prosperous life. This demand can only be met as long as some specific conditions are established. For instance, the efficient utilization of the existing scarce resources in the production of goods and services and the fair and uninterrupted distribution of the produced goods and services are two of the specific conditions that have to be established so as to ensure high and sustainable personal welfare. However, it is impossible to state that these conditions can be met any time since sometimes there may be such ups and downs in the economic activities as crisis, which may have drastic economic, social and political effects. Due to its devastating effects, foreseeing financial crises, a type of economic crisis, and taking measures to minimize the length and impacts of them are of crucial importance. Many financial crises models have been developed to guide the institutions that try to achieve these goals. Theoreticians have made different comments on the reasons and eruption processes of the crises, thus, they have suggested different solutions to this problem. The aim of the this paper is to find out the explanatory variables of the financial crises that took place in the early 2000’s in Turkey. To this end; after a short explanation about financial crisis, financial crisis models are explained very briefly, then the financial crises in question are examined empirically by making use of the method of Artificial Neural Network. Financial Crisis Theoreticians define financial crisis from their own perspective in different ways. To one of the definitions, financial crisis is the nonlinear disruption in which asymmetric information problems of adverse selection and moral hazard become much worse, so that financial markets are unable to channel funds to those with the most productive investment opportunities. (Mishkin 2003) However, in its broadest meaning, financial crises are the big problems suddenly arising in money, foreign debt and banking areas of the financial sector. In the light of this definition, it is possible to classify financial crises into groups of “banking crisis”, “monetary crisis” and “foreign debt crisis.” (Bastı 2006) The definitions of the concerned types of financial crises are as follows: “A banking crisis refers to a situation in which actual or potential bank runs or failures induce banks to suspend the internal convertibility of their liabilities or which compels the government to intervene to prevent this by extending assistance on a large scale.” (IMF 1998) 16 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo A monetary crisis or a currency crisis erupts if the attacks on the national currency of a country end up with devaluation or a sharp depreciation or if the Central Bank is forced to protect the value of the currency by selling huge amount of reserves or increasing interest rates sharply. (Delice 2003) Foreign debt crisis is the declaration by a country of the fact that it can not pay “capital+interest” of the public or private foreign debt (that it can not pay debt service) due to the foreign payment problems it encounters. (Seyidoğlu 2001) Financial Crisis Models Some models and theories have been developed to explain the nature of financial crises. The classification of financial crisis models as First Generation Financial Crisis Models and Second Generation Financial Crisis Models has been widely accepted. Some models have also been introduced into the literature, which aim at explaining the financial crisis named as “Asian Financial Crisis”, which erupted on 2 July 1997 with the devaluation of Thailand’s national currency. These last group models are called Third Generation Financial Crisis Models or the Models Explaining Asian Crisis. First Generation Financial Crisis Models are named as Traditional Crisis Models, Canonical Crisis Models or Speculative Attack Models as well. Main starting point of these models is the fact that foreign currency can exhaust and its supply can not be increased easily. The first financial crisis modeling developed by Paul Krugman in 1979 has been considerably improved, and today it is named as “First Generation Financial Crisis Models”. According to the first generation models, main reasons behind monetary crises are macroeconomic structural imbalances and unsustainable policies. High and increasing budget deficits, high inflation, high domestic interest rates, high rates of money supply increase, huge current deficits, extremely valuable exchange rate and decreases in international reserves can be given as examples of macroeconomic structural imbalances. (Kuran 2006) Issuing money to finance budget deficits in a country where fixed exchange rate system is implemented can be given as an example for unsustainable and unstable policy. According to these models; covering of financial deficits while implementing a fixed exchange rate policy or increasing money supply drastically to balance a weak banking system causes financial crises. In other words, incompliance of economy policies -which are divided into two groups of monetary and fiscal policy- with foreign currency target results in financial crises.1 According to first generation models, financial crises erupt as follows: Assume that fixed exchange rate policy is implemented in an economy; that the budget of the economy has a deficit and; that the units implementing macroeconomic policies prefer issuing money to finance the budget deficit and the only tool they have to fix the deficit is to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In such case, interest rates fall on one hand and inflation rises on the other hand due to increase in money supply. The fall in interest rates and the rise in inflation cause reduction of economic reserves and, thus, result in crisis. First of all, foreign investors demand foreign currency (as the interest rates fall) and then export foreign currency. In addition, shadow price2 of the foreign currency exceeds the official foreign exchange rate due to increasing foreign currency demand. Secondly, national currency is valued due to fixed exchange rate policy. This has a decreasing effect on export and increasing effect on import. The rise of inflation has negative impacts on export as well. As a result, foreign trade deficit gradually increases. The increase in the foreign trade deficit means a reduction in economic reserves. Moreover, these two developments bring along another development that reduces reserves more: In an economy where foreign trade deficit increases (i.e., where balance of payment is deteriorating), speculators foresee that fixed exchange rate policy will be abandoned and, thus, foreign currency rate will increase. Therefore, speculators who want to maximize their profits sell their reserves in national currency and buy foreign currency. Together with the above-mentioned factors, this situation plays a role in the depletion of the reserves as well. Speculative Attack plays an important role in the first generation models. The most important characteristic of Speculative Attack is that investors decrease the relative share of the national currency and increase the share of the foreign currencies and foreign assets in their portfolios. Central Bank, which tries to maintain fixed exchange rate, puts its foreign currency reserves on the foreign currency market. Central Bank, the reserves of which decreases to a critical level, has to abandon fixed exchange rate regime. As a consequence of this process, a financial crisis (monetary crisis) erupts. To summarize according to Krugman’s approach; variables such as financial and monetary expansion result in reserve losses when there is no parity to prevent loss of foreign currency reserves. This situation creates an increasing pressure on the foreign exchange rate. (Kaminsky, et al 1998) 1 For more detailed information: See; Krugman, Paul (1979), “A Model of Balance of Payment Crises”, Journal of Money, Credit, Banking” pp: 311-325 2 Shadow price is the price determined by the supply-demand status of any good when the price is not fixed by the authorized institutions. Shadow price of any foreign currency is the price that is determined when the exchange rate is not fixed. 17 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Second Generation Financial Crisis Models suggest financial crises can erupt even when there is no deterioration in the economic indicators. These models explain how speculative attacks targeting national currency can result in crises even when the monetary and fiscal policies are consistent. (Özer 1999) Second generation models emphasize that when there are inconsistencies between fixed exchange rate and some important economic figures, politicians may prefer to float the exchange rate and not respond to the speculative attacks even when there is sufficient amount of foreign currency reserve. (Bilgin, et al 2002) To the second generation models pioneered by Maurice Obtsfel, governments have grounds both to continue and to abandon the fixed exchange rate policy. Governments make benefit-costs analysis when deciding on whether to continue or abandon the fixed exchange rate policy. The benefit of the fixed exchange rate system is that it decreases the inflation pressure and creates an economic environment that promotes trade and investment. On the other hand, the cost of the fixed exchange rate system is that it causes an increase in the real interest rates. In case downward inertia is observed together with the high interest rates, unemployment rate increases and growth rate decreases. As can be understood from the context, increasing real interest rates may lead to failure to sustain the fixed exchange rate system and, in turn, to eruption of crisis. Since it will not be rational to keep the exchange rate at its current level in case costs exceed benefits, the exchange rate is floated. To reduce unemployment and current transaction deficits and to promote growth; governments prefer to switch to the floating exchange rate system although foreign currency reserves are sufficient to protect the exchange rate. Third Generation Financial Crisis Models are also called “The Models Explaining Asian Crisis”. Two main suggestions have been made to explain the reasons of Asian Crisis. The first suggestion is that Asian Crisis can be explained on the basis of the second generation models. To this suggestion, the countries that faced crisis were exposed to a self-fulfilling pessimism by the international investors. That is, the pessimism of the creditors and investors created a pessimist atmosphere for the other investors as well. The resulting cycle caused the Asian Crisis. To the second suggestion, the weak economic structure produced by the wrong policies and structural problems resulted in the Asian Crisis. These structural problems can be summarized as follows: The first problem was the presence of the microeconomic problematic implementations such as implicit deposit insurances and confidential public guarantees. These implementations have been suggested to pave the way for the crisis due to moral hazard and excessive borrowing. The second problem was the insufficient auditing of the financial sector and particularly the banks. When the system is not properly audited, banks can enable use of funds by their affiliated companies at such huge amounts to increase financial fragility. In addition, in weak systems, huge amount of funds inflowing to the country result in not only high amount of domestic fund transfers via poorly-managed banks but also domestic demand boom. The loans granted without any risk analysis can not be paid back in economic shrinkage times and result in crises. The third problem was the unreliable balance sheets of the banks and non-bank financial institutions. The problems in the balance sheets of the banks mainly result from mismatch. When the banks borrow money in foreign currency and lend in national currency and when they make short-term borrowing and make lending for long-term investments; it means that they encounter both monetary and term mismatch problems. (Yay, et al 2001) Wrongly-valued foreign currencies and unpaid debts are the other balance sheet problems. Such situations create the appropriate environment for the financial crisis to occur. Empirical Analysis with Artificial Neural Network (ANN) “An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is an information processing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the brain, process information.” (Stegiou, et al 2009) In the information processing system of ANN, there may be huge number of highly interconnected processing elements, neurons, just like in a brain. The neurons in question are organized into the layers of input, output and hidden. The input layer is connected to the output layer through junctions with a hidden layer. (Cravener, et al 2001) Input, hidden, output layers and the neurons constitute the network of ANN. The brief explanation of the learning process of ANN is as follows: Firstly, the network tries to find linear relationships between the inputs and the output. The links between the neurons in input and output layers are assigned weight values. At this phase, there is no hidden layer. After the linear relationships are found, non-linear relationships are found by adding neurons to the hidden layer. The values in the input layer, namely the inputs, are multiplied by the weights assigned by the system automatically and then sent to the hidden layer. The hidden layer produces some outputs, inputs of the output layer, and sends them to the output layer. Lastly, the output layer produces the predictions. The network of ANN is adaptive. Because the predicted values are compared with the actual values, and if there is any error, then the connecting weights are adjusted and/or new hidden neurons are added to capture all features of the data set and to make accurate predictions, namely to minimize the error. 18 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Inputs, Output (Variables) and the Dataset The studies analyzing the Turkish financial crisis of 1994, 2000 and 2001 empirically were examined to determine the inputs and output. The leading indicators that were found significant in the analysis were used as the inputs in our study besides the inputs emphasized by the financial crisis models. 96 pieces of monthly data of each input, between the dates of Janury, 1996 and December, 2003 were used in the analysis. The monthly percentage changes of each input were used. The data were collected from the Electronic Data Delivery System of Central Bank of Turkey and the website of Turkish Statistical Institute. About the Inputs The inputs used in the analysis are as follows: � M2 (Money Supply)/Gross Currency Reserves of Central Bank (M2/CBER): The rise of this rate means that the financial system is vulnerable to shocks. To the third generation financial crisis models, an increase in this rate increases the probability of financial crisis to occur. � Total Deposit of Commercial Banks (TDCP): It was observed that bank deposits had declined before the crisis. The fall in commercial bank deposits mean that bank balance sheets contract and the trust in banks decline. It is the crisis indicator of the third generation financial crisis models. � Domestic Credit Amount (DCA): Empirical findings obtained heretofore have proved that domestic credit amount increases before crisis. Before the financial crisis in November 2000, domestic credit amount, particularly the amount of consumer credits, increased substantially. � Consolidated Budget Income/ Consolidated Budget Expenditure (CBI/CBE): To the first generation financial crisis models, an increase in budget deficit raises the financial crisis risk. In other words, there is a positive relation between budget deficit and financial crisis risk. Therefore the probability of financial crisis risk is expected to increase as the value of this input declines. � Real Exchange Rate (RER): Overappreciation of local currency, that is, the change of exchange rate in favour of local currency is interpreted as a leading indicator of financial crisis. � Deposit Rate (DR): There is a positive relation between deposit rate and the probability of financial crisis. � Consumer Price Index (CPI): It was observed that inflation rates raised before financial crisis to have occured. � Current Account Balance/ Gross Domestic Product (CAB/GDP): An increase in this ratio is accepted as an indicator of financial crisis. To the former president of IMF, Stanley Fischer, high current deficient and banking sector caused the November 2000 crisis. (Fischer 2001) To some international finance institutions, CAB/GDP ratio of Turkey was unsustainable as of fall of 2000. � Export Coverage Import Ratio (EX/IMP): In an economy implementing fixed exchange rate system, the fall of export and the rise of import effect the foreign trade balance, thus the current account balance negatively. Current account deficit increases the pressure on exchange rate and causes speculative attacks. About the Output To design the output, a pressure index and a threshold were calculated. The formulas used to find out the pressure index and the threshold are as follows:1 The pressure index used is Foreign Exchange Market Pressure Index (EMP). “EMP is calculated as the weighted average of the monthly percentage changes in the gross currency reserves of the central bank and of the monthly percentage changes in the devaluation rate of TL against US dollar.” (Şen 2005) EMP is formulated as follows: EMPT = %∆et − α 1 %∆rt Where e t denotes the nominal buying rate of TL/$ at time t rt % denotes the amount of gross foreign currencies of Central Bank at time t ∆ e t denotes the monthly percentage change in the nominal buying rate. 1 The formulas used to design the output were taken from the following dissertation: Şen, Ali (2005), Finansal Krizlerin Tahmin Edilebilirliği: Türkiye Uygulaması, Đstanbul University. 19 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo ∆ r t denotes the monthly percentage change in the amount of the gross foreign currencies of Central Bank % α1 is the proportion of the standard deviation of the series of the monthly percentage changes in the nominal exchange rate to the standard deviation of the series of the monthly percentage changes in the amount of the gross foreign currencies of Central Bank. Namely, ( σ e /σ r ) The value of the threshold is calculated by making use of the following formula βσ emp + µ emp Where β denotes the coefficient of EMP σ denotes the standard deviation of EMP series µ denotes the mean of EMP series If If EMPit > βσ EMPit + µ EMPit , It is deemed that financial crisis occured in the corresponding month EMPit ≤ βσ EMPĐT + µ EMPĐT , It is deemed that no financial crisis occured in the corresponding month. In the light of these information, the values of the pressure index in November 2000 and February, March, April and June 2001 were found greater than the value of the threshold. That is to say, it is inferred from the data that financial crisis occured in the mentioned months. This inference highly overlaps with the conclusions of some other empirical studies and the crisis experience of Turkish economy. June 2001 crisis could be accepted as the aftershock of February 2001 crisis. In analysis, the values of the pressure index, changing from month to month naturally, were used as output. The values of threshold, standard deviation, mean of the pressure index, and the ratio of ( σ e / σ r ) were found equal to 2.514596, 1.6010, 0.4491, and 0.1172 respectively. The coefficient of “β” is 1.29. It is important to determine the value of the coefficient of the standard deviation of the pressure index series, namely “β” while calculating the value of the threshold. Because deciding whether the financial crisis occured is effected by this value. To determine the value of the threshold, the values of “σ” ve “µ” were calculated by making use of the data whereas we assigned the value of “β”. We calculated the value of “β” as 1.29. Because the financial crises dates found out in case of determining the value of “β” as 1.29 overlapped with the actual financial crisis mentioned above. It is possible to give various values to the coefficient of “β”. For instance, in some studies1, it was given the values of 1.5, 2.5, and 2.54 respectively. Model Building (Learning/Training Phase) In this subsection, an ANN model is built for November 2000 and February 2001 financial crises. All data were used for learning and validation purposes. The data were not separated as learning or validation data. That is, the data used to validate the built model was chosen within the sample. Testing phase was skipped. What desired to achieve with this model is only to find out the effects of inputs on the output, namely the pressure indice, which are used to specify whether financial crises occurred between 1996 and 2003. The number of the hidden neurons is 70. Because the model yielded lower R-squared values in case of the utilization of less number of hidden neuron. The model with the highest value of R-squared was chosen as the best model. NeuroShell ® Predictor software was used for the analysis. The summaries of the statistical outcomes of the built model and importance of the inputs are as follows: R-Squared: R-squared takes a value between 0 and 1. The closer the value is to 1, the better the net is able to make predictions. The closer the value is to 0, the net is not able to make good predictions. The Rsquared value of the neural network model is 0.966431, which confirms the closeness of fit between the actual and trained pressure index. Figure 1 in Appendix shows the plot between the actual and trained pressure indice. 1 Please refer to the following articles: Aziz, Jahangir, Caramazza, Francesco, Salgado, Ranil (2000), “Currency Crises: In Search of Common Elements”, IMF Working Paper, No.67; Edison, Hali J. (2000), “Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Paper No. 675; Esquivel, G., Larrin F. (1998), “Explaining Currency Crisis”, HIID, No.666 20 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo The blue points represent the actual, the red points represent the predicted indice. From the figure, we infer that the model is very good at learning the indice, namely the existence or non-existence of the crises. Minimum Square Error (MSE): MSE is the statistical measure of the differences between the actual and predicted values of the output. MSE has the value of 0.002832 in our analysis, which is also a good indicator of the closeness of fit between the actual and trained pressure index. Relative Importance of Inputs: In Table 1 is given the relative importance of each input. Besides, Figure 2 in Appendix illustrates the importance of each input in predicting the value of output. The corresponding number of each input indicates the importance of the input in predicting the output. The relative importance numbers take a value between 0 and 1, The higher the number, the more important that input is in predicting the output. “The relative importance numbers are “normalized” so that for all inputs they add up to approximately 1. Therefore, we may think of these numbers as a percent contribution to the model of the respective inputs.” (Ward 1997) In view of the results, it is inferred that the input of domestic credit amount has the highest importance in predicting the output, whereas the input of CAB/GDP has the lowest. Table 1: Relative Importance of Inputs INPUT Domestic Credit Amount Export Coverage Import Ratio Real Exchange Rate Consumer Price Index Total Deposit of Commercial Banks Deposit Rate Consolidated Budget Income/Consolidated Budget Expenditure M2 (Money Supply)/Gross Currency Reserves of Central Bank Current Account Balance/ Gross Domestic Product IMPORTANCE 0.242 0.240 0.208 0.153 0.092 0.047 0.008 0.005 0.004 Model Validation (Validation Phase) In this subsection, the built model is validated with the same data in order to check whether the built model is capable enough to predict the actual values of the outcome, pressure indice. R-Squared value and MSE were found as 0.917785 and 0.006935 respectively. These results prove that the model is strong enough to predict the values of outome. Figure 3 in Appendix shows the plot between the actual and trained pressure indice at validation phase. The blue points represent the actual, and the red points represent the predicted indice. The performance of the model at validation phase proves that the model can predict the pressure indice, namely the existence or non-existence of the crises almost accurately. Concluding Remarks Financial crises, whatever their types are, have been on the agenda of many economists for nearly three decades. Because they leave destructive affects on the social and economic structures of the countries. As a result of the studies, empirical and theoretical, to gain an insight into the nature of financial crises, many theories and models have been suggested. Artificial Neural Network is one of those empirical analysis tools that could be used. In this study, ANN was used to analyze the economic reasons of November 2000 and February 2001 Turkish financial crises. The inputs and output were determined by making use of the leading indicators of financial crisis models, and some empirical analyses related to the Turkish financial crises of interest. The variables found significant in the empirical analyses were added to our study. The time interval, January of 1996 and December of 2003, was selected on purpose to analyze the Turkish crisis in the early 2000’s particularly. If the time interval had been determined longer, it would have been improper to mention about the economic causes of the crisis in question due to the inclusion of causes of the Turkish financial crisis in 1994. To the results at learning and validation phases, a strong model is built to find out the explanatory variables of November 2000 and February 2001 financial crises. Because the R-squared values of the model at training/learning and validation phases are 0.966431 and 0.917785 respectively. Besides, MSE values are 0.002832 and 0.006935. Moreover, the plots in figure 1 and 3 also prove the power of the model. It is concluded that the trained network model is a good fit to explain the reasons of the financial crises in question. In addition, it is inferred that the input of domestic credit amount played the greatest role in the crises in question whereas the input of Current Account Balance/ Gross Domestic Product played the smallest. 21 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo References Aziz, J., Caramazza, F.& Salgado, R. (2000). Currency Crises: In Search of Common elements. IMF Working Paper, No.67. Bastı, E. (2006). Kriz Teorileri Çerçevesinde 2001 Türkiye Finansal Krizi. Ankara: Sermaye Piyasası Kurulu Publications. Bilgin, M.H., Karabulut, G. & Ongan, H. (2002). Finansal Krizlerin Đşletmelerin Finansal Yapıları Üzerindeki Etkileri. Đstanbul: Đstanbul Ticaret Odası Publications, Publication No:2002-41. Cravener, T.L., Roush, W.B. (2001). Prediction of amino acid profiles in feed ingredients: Genetic algorithm calibration of artificial neural networks. Animal Feed Science and Technology, 90 (2001) 131-141. Delice, G. (2003). Finansal Krizler: Teorik ve Tarihsel Bir Perspektif. Erciyes University ĐĐBF Journal, No:20. Edison, H. J. (2000). Do Indicators of Financial Crises Work? An Evaluation of an Early Warning System. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Discussion Paper, No. 675:1-74 Esquivel, G.& Larrin F. (1998). Explaining Currency Crisis. HIID, No.666 Fischer, S. (2001), Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct. Symposium conducted at the meeting of American Economic Association Meeting. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/weo0598/pdf/0598ch4.pdf (15 March 2009) Kaminsky, G.L., Saul L. & Carmen M.R. (1998). Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol.5, No.1. Kuran, Đ. (2006). Türkiye’de Ekonomik Krizler ve Đstikrar Programları (1980-2005). Unpublished MA Thesis. Harran University. Mishkin, F. (2003). Banking and Financial Crises. http://info.worldbank.org/etools/docs/library/83724/mishkin.pdf (17 May 2009) Özer, M. (1999). Finansal Krizler, Piyasa Başarısızlıkları ve Finansal Đstikrarı Sağlamaya Yönelik Politikalar. Anadolu University Publications, No:1096. Stergiou C., Siganos, D. (2009). Neural Networks. http://www.doc.ic.ac.uk/~nd/surprise_96/journal/vol4/cs11/report.html#Introduction%20to%20neural%20networks (12 May 2009) Şen, A.(2005). Finansal Krizlerin Tahmin Edilebilirliği: Türkiye Uygulaması. Đstanbul University. Ward Systems Group Inc. (1997). NeuroShell ® Predictor Instruction. USA: Ward Systems Group Inc. Yay,T., Yay,G.G. & Yılmaz,E. (2001). Küreselleşme Sürecinde Finansal Krizler ve Finansal Düzenlemeler. Đstanbul: Đstanbul Ticaret Odası Publications, Publication No:2001-47. Appendix Figure 1: Actual and Predicted Values at Training/Learning Phase 22 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Figure 2: Importance of Inputs at Training/Learning Phase Figure 3: Actual and Predicted Values at Validation Phase 23 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 130 Title A name given to the resource An Empirical Analysis of Turkish Financial Crises in the Early 2000’s. Author Author ÖZSOY, İsmail GÖRMEZ, Birol Abstract A summary of the resource. The financing scheme has a crucial function in an economy since it enables fundowners to transfer their funds to those in need. Unless the financing scheme operates effectively, economic growth is hampered severely due to the inadequacy or immobility of capital. The world finance history has experienced many financial crises, the case of malfunction of the financing scheme, repeatedly so far. Many theories and models have been developed to give an insight into the reasons and dissemination mechanisms of, and precautions against the financial crises. This paper is intended to find out the explanatory variables of the Turkish financial crises that took place in November 2000 and February 2001 with the help of the method of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and within the framework of the models of financial crises. To this effect, the models of financial crises are briefly dealt with; the Turkish financial crises in the early 2000’s are analyzed subsequently by making use of ANN. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory