26 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6a1a08dacbb4d77d34deefcf098f7846.pdf 7e03030d32bf88f0be7212cf45a48985 PDF Text Text Edward Bond’s Play for Children: Education for Sustainable Development and the Need for Theatre in Education Mehmet TAKKAÇ Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey takkac@atauni.edu.tr Ahmet Gökhan BİÇER Kafkas University, Kars, Turkey gokhanbicer@hotmail.com Abstract: Education for sustainable development is a process that gives much importance to create a better, safer and a just world. It emphasizes the need for a new vision of education system. Learning for sustainable development, critical thinking, and problem solving should be the main concepts of this process and also the main principles of Theatre in Education movement. Edward Bond, one of the most innovative voices of modern British drama and a leading dramatist who writes for Theatre in Education movement, believes that theatre has a social, political and moral purpose. For this reason he writes plays for educational contexts. His greatest aim to write plays for young people is to enable children to understand themselves, the political society around them and to create a just society. His play The Children (2001) shows a bleak vision of future for children in an unjust society. This paper examines young people’s isolation in a technologised society and shows Bond’s concepts of Theatre in Education movement for a sustainable development. The importance of drama is that it may directly confront radical innocence and the need for humanness…Real events (in war, sickness, triumph) may also confront the relationship between imagination and reason, but reality tends to be subordinated to ideology…Drama is…created to circumvent this.1 The work of Edward Bond is a crystallization of the major concerns of British theatre during the past forty five years. From his plays in the sixties, to his most recent works, dialectics of violence, politics, revolution, justice, imagination, and children have been continually present on his stage. His early plays echo the ideas of the post-war British society and general aspects of universal issues, and his most recent plays, especially after the collapse of socialism, he addresses the fate of children and the world of education. During the past four decades Bond has developed his own form of theatre which he has termed the ‘Rational Theatre’. In his essay ‘The Rational Theatre’ Bond argues the function of literature and art in society. For him art must include these two features below: Firstly, rational objectivity, the expression of the need for interpretation, meaning, order…That is for a justice that isn’t fulfilled in the existing social order. Doing this it tends to humanize society, make society truly self-conscious instead of selfidentified. This is a truly moral function. But, secondly, it also includes a misinterpretation of experience, and this misinterpretation has a historical class 1 Edward Bond, The Hidden Plot: notes on theatre and the state, Methuen, London, 2000, p. 181. 113 �origin. It distorts the first function, because it is dictated by the needs of the ruling class and its problems in running the structure it imposes on society.2 In a Bondian sense, art must deal with the conflict between ideal justice and a wrong interpretation of this justice by ruling class. He maintains that it is artist’s duty to illustrate the need for justice in the world and artist cannot be inactive about this conflict. Regarding art as a political instrument which must develop a human consciousness, Bond believes that art has also a vital moral function: Art is…not only evidence of the moral autonomy of individuals but also the fact that they can achieve moral sovereignty only under a good government or in struggling to create such a government. Art, it hardly needs saying, can’t create a good society on its own, but it is a necessary part of its creation. It produces its interpretations of experience as technological and scientific development makes them possible; this development is the foundation of human consciousness.3 For creating this human consciousness Bond has taken a particular interest in dramatizing the hopes and anxieties of children and their isolation from the corrupting culture of adults. Of course there are playwrights-aplenty who can create powerful images of corrupt and dangerous modernity, inimical to humanity and justice. What Bond presents in addition is a built-in set of tools with which to do more than be shocked or confirmed in our anger and suffering. These are the tools of education and they are present in the plays because the writer has always been fired by the processes by which children learn and fail to learn.4 To overcome this negative process, which he thinks is a barrier for change, he offers Theatre in Education as an effective tool. Bond regards Theatre in Education as fundamental to young people’s development and education for a sustainable development. For him, “Theatre in education is the most valuable cultural institution the country has”5 and “TIE∗ lets children come to know themselves and their world and their relation to it. That is the only way that they can know who they are and accept responsibility for themselves. TIE is carrying out the injunction of the Greeks, who founded the basis of democracy and theatre: as they said ‘know yourself- otherwise you are a mere consumer of time, space, air and fodder’ to humans.6 2 Edward Bond, Plays: Two, London, Eyre Methuen, 1978, p. xiii. 3 A.g.e., p. xiv. 4 Tony Coult, “Building the Common Future”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, edited by David Davis, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA, 2005, p. 11. 5 Edward Bond, Selections from the Notebooks of Edward Bond, Volume One, Ed. Ian Stuart, Methuen, London, 2000, p. 58. ∗ Theatre in Education 6 Edward Bond, “The Importance of Belgrade TIE”,in, SCYPT Journal, 27,1994, pp. 36–38. 114 �Being aware of his responsibility as an artist to his society, Edward Bond doesn’t close his eyes, ears and hearts to the social and political events of the world that effect young people. His childhood experience of the Second World War and the weak post-war peace have been transformed into the intense imagery to write brilliant plays for children to defeat injustices which shape the modern societies. For this reason he has constructed a bridge between art and education. Affected by the disappointment of conventional theatres in Britain, he only writes for school children, students, and works with Big Brum Theatre in Education Company in Birmingham. His aim with the collaboration of this company is to use theatre as a tool for learning. In Theatre in Education learning is not instrumental but conceptual, because it uses the power of theatre to resonate with our own lives in order to reach new social understandings about the world we inhabit, to explore the human condition and behavior so that it can be integrated into young people’s minds and make them morally more human, as Bond says, allowing them to know themselves.7 Like Bond, believing in the indispensability of Theatre in Education as a factor of supreme significance in the social lives and education of children, Gillham thinks: And, because such things concern the processes of social and human interactions, the domain particularly of drama and theatre in education, real understanding is a process of coming to understand: we cannot ‘give’ someone our understanding. Real understanding is felt. Only if the understanding is felt can it be integrated into children’s minds, or anyone’s. Resonance is the starting point of the integration process. The resonance of something engages us powerfully; that is, affectively. But, significantly, it also engages us indirectly with that which it resonates. Resonance is not authoritarian; yet it’s an offer you cannot refuse.8 Bond believes that theatre has a strong communal, political and an ethical function, and he is interested in drama which encourages young people to question the world around them and invites to imagine how it might be different. He explains his understanding of this issue as follows: TIE does not cure or punish. It does the only moral-and practically useful- thing that can be done to bewilderment and violence. It turns it to creativity. It does not stop at helping the disaffected to understand themselves and others, vital though that is. I t gives them the only reward creativity can give-the ability to change. That is something that cure and punishment could never do.9 A fundamental figure in much of Bond’s work has been the child as an element revealing the correlation between past and present. The Children, written for Manor Community College and performed by the students of this college deals with children’s feelings of social isolation through a central dramatic question: What would 7 Chris Cooper, “Edward Bond and the Big Brum Plays”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, p.50. 8 Geoff Gillham, “The Value of Theatre in Education”, in, SCYPT Journal, 27, 1994, p.5. 9 Edward Bond, in, Ian Stuart, Edward Bond .Letters 4, Amsteldijk, Harwodd Academic Publishers, 1998, p. 118. 115 �Medea’s children say if they were allowed to speak? Using the familiar Bondian tool of exploring contemporary social questions through mythic stories, The Children broke the silence of children whose only words were cries for help as they were sent to their deaths. This powerful dramatic symbol presents insights into the politics of childhood, making the division between the worlds of children and adults painfully noticeable to a contemporary audience. In addition to interrogating the ethical seriousness of its content, the act of performing the play would also offer this particular group of people a very public voice in a city where they felt ignored and undermined.10 In The Children Joe, who “marks the difference between self-discovery and self-creativity, and carries with him the experiences and attitudes of his friends into the adult world”11, is terrorized by his mother to destroy a house by fire. A young boy dies in the fire, and Joe and his friends decide to escape. They carry with them an outsider, a hurt man, who is the father of the boy killed in the fire. The outsider kills them separately; until only Joe is left, to face the future lonely saying “I’ve got everything. I’m the last person in the world. I must find someone”.12 Dealing with specifically a children’s journey which starts from any modern city, and bringing play’s central character Joe’s journey into a “post-apocalyptic world”13, The Children is an essential play. It summarizes Bond’s views about children, and how adults are behaving them, and not making a warm address for them in the world. The division between self discovery and self-creativity is a vital issue to understand the message of The Children. At the end of the play Joe is the only one alive and he leaves the stage purposefully, as if to begin a new phase of his journey. The young people’s journey, for Bond, is “like the map of ancient rite of passage- the very ancient journey that all humans have had to go on since we first wanted to understand ourselves and take responsibility for our world.”14 In this sense: The play does not describe the journey in an abstract way, but creates the experience of the journey through the intense concentration, which is the secret of drama…The young people who go on the journey in The Children, are the only ones who can save themselves-helped perhaps by adults who have also made journey and learnt to replace revenge with justice, anger with care.15 The extreme situations in which the children are placed in the play lead them to ask fundamental questions about who they are and what they would like to become. Although the situations are inherited from the 10 Helen Nicholson, “Acting, Creativity and Social Justice: Edward Bond’s The Children, Research in Drama Education, Vol.8, No.1, 2003, p. 11. 11 A.g.e., p.17. 12 Edward Bond, The Children, Methuen, London, 2000, p. 52. 13 David Allen, “The Children”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, p. 149. 14 Edward Bond, “Words about The Children”, In. Programme for the Classworks Theatre production, 2000. 15 A.g.y.. 116 �adult world, the young people have to find ways of living without losing the sense of justice, their radical innocence, which they have taken for granted in their own world.16 Living among the grim realities of the world such as violence, social isolation and abuse, children would learn and experience this process by playing themselves, acting their stories, and understanding of themselves in relation to the world. This crucial point is what Bond wants to do with Theatre in Education, as he points out: “Education should enable children to search for meaning so that they may bear witness to life. The psyche is a dramatizing structure and cultures are in a wide sense theatres.”17 In this sense, by exploring the imaginative world of the children, and drawing attention to the moral corruption and their search for meaning through the Theatre in Education movement, the play reflects a profound discussion to educators: How to live morally in an amoral world? How to be human? How can we create a humane society? To consume or not to consume! In the light of these vital questions it is possible to find reasonable and rational answers from Edward Bond’s Big Brum 25th birthday-speech and message: Drama is self creativity. It teaches nothing. Instead it confronts human creativity with its own needs. It does not prepare children to enter society; it prepares them to enter more fully into their humanness. It is not interested in citizenship but in the Promethean self, in the rightful discontent of being human. It is not involved in selfexpression, which is a flabby cliché, but in the creation of shared humanness. How else can young people survive even the memory of what many of their elders did in the last century? Or leave a world more innocent than the one they entered? Perhaps those elders learnt to accept injustices and contradictions. Drama confronts young people with situations in which that injustice has seeped down into their own lives, or which they can easily foresee in the future. At that age such things are unacceptable. And if at that age drama ignites the self’s creativity by respecting it and trusting its strength, then society will be less able to destroy it later. We will have given it for ever the indomitable power of youth. In time it may make civilization young again.18 In Bond's evaluation of contemporary world, everyone must be aware of where and in which circumstances he is living and what possible facilities he gains. Not only adults but also children are included in this critical process. Children have a right to know the world they're in, and who they are. The writer points out that handling the case of children must be the first and primary step towards achieving this essential purpose. The most significant deduction one could possibly make out from The Children is that, there is always a hope for creating a good future and the search for justice because each human infant starts life with radical innocence. 16 Nicholson, “Acting, Creativity and Social Justice: Edward Bond’s The Children, p. 20. 17 Edward Bond, Eleven Vests and Tuesday, Methuen, London, 1997, p. 91. 18 Edward Bond, “Young Civilization”, http://www.bigbrum.org.uk/, May 2007. 117 �References Allen, David. (2005). “The Children”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, edited by David Davis, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA. Bond, Edward. (1978). Plays: Two, London, Eyre Methuen. Bond, Edward. (1994).“The Importance of Belgrade TIE”,in, SCYPT Journal, 27, pp. 36–38. Bond, Edward. (1997). Eleven Vests and Tuesday, London:Methuen. Bond, Edward. (1998). in, Ian Stuart, Edward Bond .Letters 4, Amsteldijk, Harwodd Academic Publishers. Bond, Edward. (2000). The Children, London:Methuen. Bond, Edward. (2000). Selections from the Notebooks of Edward Bond, Volume One, Ed. Ian Stuart, Methuen, London. Bond, Edward. (2000). The Hidden Plot: notes on theatre and the state, London:Methuen. Bond, Edward. (2000). “Words about The Children”, In. Programme for the Classworks Theatre production. Cooper, Chris. (2005). “Edward Bond and the Big Brum Plays”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child Edward Bond’s plays for young people, edited by David Davis, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA. Coult, Tony. (2005). “Building the Common Future”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, edited by David Davis, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA. Davis, David. (2005). Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA. Gillham, Geoff . (1994).“The Value of Theatre in Education”, in, SCYPT Journal, 27. Nicholson, Helen. (2003). “Acting, Creativity and Social Justice: Edward Bond’s The Children, Research in Drama Education, Vol.8, No.1. 118 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 660 Title A name given to the resource Edward Bond’s Play for Children: Education for Sustainable Development and the Need for Theatre in Education Author Author TAKKAÇ, Mehmet BİÇER, Ahmet Gökhan Abstract A summary of the resource. Education for sustainable development is a process that gives much importance to create a better, safer and a just world. It emphasizes the need for a new vision of education system. Learning for sustainable development, critical thinking, and problem solving should be the main concepts of this process and also the main principles of Theatre in Education movement. Edward Bond, one of the most innovative voices of modern British drama and a leading dramatist who writes for Theatre in Education movement, believes that theatre has a social, political and moral purpose. For this reason he writes plays for educational contexts. His greatest aim to write plays for young people is to enable children to understand themselves, the political society around them and to create a just society. His play The Children (2001) shows a bleak vision of future for children in an unjust society. This paper examines young people’s isolation in a technologised society and shows Bond’s concepts of Theatre in Education movement for a sustainable development. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed L Education (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/977c4c4fd57b1d9b5ecb98a2332c7448.pdf 19fb337da3833269ea9c387faf356e51 PDF Text Text Edward Bond’s Play for Children: Education for Sustainable Development and the Need for Theatre in Education Mehmet TAKKAÇ Ataturk University, Erzurum,/Turkey takkac@atauni.edu.tr Ahmet Gökhan BİÇER Kafkas University, Kars, Turkey gokhanbicer@hotmail.com Abstract: Education for sustainable development is a process that gives much importance to create a better, safer and a just world. It emphasizes the need for a new vision of education system. Learning for sustainable development, critical thinking, and problem solving should be the main concepts of this process and also the main principles of Theatre in Education movement. Edward Bond, one of the most innovative voices of modern British drama and a leading dramatist who writes for Theatre in Education movement, believes that theatre has a social, political and moral purpose. For this reason he writes plays for educational contexts. His greatest aim to write plays for young people is to enable children to understand themselves, the political society around them and to create a just society. His play The Children (2001) shows a bleak vision of future for children in an unjust society. This paper examines young people’s isolation in a technologised society and shows Bond’s concepts of Theatre in Education movement for a sustainable development. The importance of drama is that it may directly confront radical innocence and the need for humanness…Real events (in war, sickness, triumph) may also confront the relationship between imagination and reason, but reality tends to be subordinated to ideology…Drama is…created to circumvent this.1 The work of Edward Bond is a crystallization of the major concerns of British theatre during the past forty five years. From his plays in the sixties, to his most recent works, dialectics of violence, politics, revolution, justice, imagination, and children have been continually present on his stage. His early plays echo the ideas of the post-war British left, and his most recent plays, especially after the collapse of socialism, address the fate of children and the world of education. During the past four decades Bond has developed his own form of theatre which he has termed the ‘Rational Theatre’. In his essay ‘The Rational Theatre’ Bond argues the function of literature and art in society. For him art must include these two features below: Firstly, rational objectivity, the expression of the need for interpretation, meaning, order…That is for a justice that isn’t fulfilled in the existing social order. Doing this it tends to humanize society, make society truly self-conscious instead of self-identified. This is a truly moral function. But, secondly, it also includes a misinterpretation of experience, and this misinterpretation has a historical class origin. It distorts the first function, because it is dictated by the needs of the ruling class and its problems in running the structure it imposes on society.2 In a Bondian sense, art must deal with the conflict between ideal justice and a wrong interpretation of this justice by ruling class. Bond maintains that it is artist’s duty to illustrate the need for justice in the world and artist cannot be inactive about this conflict. Regarding art as a political instrument which must develop a human consciousness, Edward Bond believes that art has also a vital moral function. The playwright claims that: 1 Edward Bond, The Hidden Plot: notes on theatre and the state, Methuen, London, 2000, p. 181. 2 Edward Bond, Plays: Two, London, Eyre Methuen, 1978, p. xiii. 167 �Art is…not only evidence of the moral autonomy of individuals but also the fact that they can achieve moral sovereignty only under a good government or in struggling to create such a government. Art, it hardly needs saying, can’t create a good society on its own, but it is a necessary part of its creation. It produces its interpretations of experience as technological and scientific development makes them possible; this development is the foundation of human consciousness.1 For creating this human consciousness Bond has taken a particular interest in dramatizing the hopes and anxieties of children and their isolation from the corrupting culture of adults. There are playwrights-a- plenty who can create powerful images of corrupt and dangerous modernity, inimical to humanity and justice. What Bond presents in addition is a built-in set of tools with which to do more than be shocked or confirmed in our anger and suffering. These are the tools of education and they are present in the plays because the writer has always been fired by the processes by which children learn and fail to learn.2 To overcome this negative process, which he thinks is a barrier for change, he offers Theatre in Education as an effective tool. Bond regards Theatre in Education fundamental to young people’s development and education for a sustainable development. For him, “Theatre in education is the most valuable cultural institution the country has”3 and “TIE∗ lets children come to know themselves and their world and their relation to it. That is the only way that they can know who they are and accept responsibility for themselves. TIE is carrying out the injunction of the Greeks, who founded the basis of democracy and theatre: as they said ‘know yourself- otherwise you are a mere consumer of time, space, air and fodder’ to humans.4 Having the responsibility of the artist to his society, Edward Bond doesn’t close his eyes, ears and hearts to the social and political events of the world that effect young people. His childhood experience of the Second World War and the weak post-war peace have been transformed into the intense imagery to write brilliant plays for children to defeat injustices which shape the modern societies. For this reason he has constructed a bridge between art and education. With the disappointment of conventional theatres in Britain he only writes for school children, students, and works with Big Brum Theatre in Education Company in Birmingham. His aim with the collaboration of this company is to use theatre as a tool for learning. In Theatre in Education learning is not instrumental but conceptual, using the power of theatre to resonate with our own lives in order to reach new social understandings about the world we inhabit, to explore the human condition and behavior so that it can be integrated into young people’s minds and make them morally more human, as Bond says, allowing them to know themselves.5 Like Bond, believing in the indispensability of Theatre in Education as a factor of supreme significance in the social lives and education of children, Gillham thinks: And, because such things concern the processes of social and human interactions, the domain particularly of drama and theatre in education, real understanding is a process of coming to understand: we cannot ‘give’ someone our understanding. Real understanding is felt. Only if the understanding is felt can it be integrated into children’s minds, or anyone’s. Resonance is the starting point of the integration process. The resonance of something engages us powerfully; that is, affectively. But, significantly, it also engages us indirectly with that which it resonates. Resonance is not authoritarian; yet it’s an offer you cannot refuse.6 1 A.g.e., p. xiv. 2 Tony Coult, “Building the Common Future”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, edited by David Davis, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA, 2005, p. 11. 3 Edward Bond, Selections from the Notebooks of Edward Bond, Volume One, Ed. Ian Stuart, Methuen, London, 2000, p. 58. ∗ Theatre in Education 4 Edward Bond, “The Importance of Belgrade TIE”,in, SCYPT Journal, 27,1994, pp. 36–38. 5 Chris Cooper, “Edward Bond and the Big Brum Plays”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, p.50. 6 Geoff Gillham, “The Value of Theatre in Education”, in, SCYPT Journal, 27, 1994, p.5. 168 �Gillham’s viewpoint that resonance is not strict but ‘an offer you cannot refuse’ connects openly with how the plays of Edward Bond work with their spectators. Bond believes that theatre has a strong communal, political and an ethical function, and he is interested in drama which encourages young people to question the world around them and invites to imagine how it might be different. He explains his understanding of this issue as follows: TIE does not cure or punish. It does the only moral-and practically useful- thing that can be done to bewilderment and violence. It turns it to creativity. It does not stop at helping the disaffected to understand themselves and others, vital though that is. I t gives them the only reward creativity can give-the ability to change. That is something that cure and punishment could never do.1 A fundamental figure in much of Bond’s work has been the child, and the correlation between past and present. The Children, written for Manor Community College and performed by the students of this college deals with children’s feelings of social isolation through a central dramatic question: What would Medea’s children say if they were allowed to speak? By using the familiar Bondian tool of exploring contemporary social questions through mythic stories; The Children broke the silence of children whose only words were cries for help as they were sent to their deaths. This powerful dramatic symbol presents insights into the politics of childhood, making the division between the worlds of children and adults painfully noticeable to a contemporary audience. In addition to interrogating the ethical seriousness of its content, the act of performing the play would also offer this particular group of young people a very public voice in a city where they felt ignored and undermined.2 In The Children Joe, who “marks the difference between self-discovery and self-creativity, and carries with him the experiences and attitudes of his friends into the adult world”3 in the course of the play, is terrorized by his mother to destroy a house by fire. A young boy dies in the fire, and with his friends, Joe and his friends decide to escape. They carry with them an outsider, a hurt man, who is the father of the boy who passed away in the fire. He kills them separately; until lastly, only Joe is left, to face the future lonely saying “I’ve got everything. I’m the last person in the world. I must find someone”.4 Dealing with specifically a children’s journey which starts from any modern city, and bringing play’s central character Joe’s journey into a “post-apocalyptic world”5, The Children is an essential play. It summarizes Bond’s views about children, and how adults are behaving them, and not making a warm address for them in the world. The division between self discovery and self-creativity is a vital issue to understand the message of The Children. By the closing stages of the play Joe is the only one alive and he leaves the stage purposefully, as if to begin a new phase of his journey. The young people’s journey, for Bond, is “like the map of ancient rite of passagethe very ancient journey that all humans have had to go on since we first wanted to understand ourselves and take responsibility for our world.”6 In this sense: The play does not describe the journey in an abstract way, but creates the experience of the journey through the intense concentration, which is the secret of drama…The young people who go on the journey in The Children, are the only ones who can save themselves-helped perhaps by adults who have also made journey and learnt to replace revenge with justice, anger with care.7 1 Edward Bond, in, Ian Stuart, Edward Bond .Letters 4, Amsteldijk, Harwodd Academic Publishers, 1998, p. 118. 2 Helen Nicholson, “Acting, Creativity and Social Justice: Edward Bond’s The Children, Research in Drama Education, Vol.8, No.1, 2003, p. 11. 3 A.g.e., p.17. 4 Edward Bond, The Children, Methuen, London, 2000, p. 52. 5 David Allen, “The Children”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, p. 149. 6 Edward Bond, “Words about The Children”, In. Programme for the Classworks Theatre production, 2000. 7 A.g.y.. 169 �The extreme situations in which the children are placed in the play lead them to ask fundamental questions about who they are and what they would like to become. Although the situations are inherited from the adult world, the young people have to find ways of living without losing the sense of justice, their radical innocence, which they had taken for granted in their own world.1 Living among the grim realities of the world such as violence, social isolation and abuse, children would learn and experience this process by playing themselves, acting their stories, and understanding of themselves in relation to the world. This crucial point is what Bond wants to do with Theatre in Education, as he points out as such, “Education should enable children to search for meaning so that they may bear witness to life. The psyche is a dramatizing structure and cultures are in a wide sense theatres.”2 In this sense, by exploring the imaginative world of the children, and drawing attention to the moral corruption and their search for meaning through the Theatre in Education movement, the play reflects a profound discussion to educators: How to live morally in an amoral world? How to be human? How can we create a humane society? To consume or not to consume! In the light of these vital questions it is possible to find reasonable and rational answers from Edward Bond’s Big Brum 25th birthday-speech and message: Drama is self creativity. It teaches nothing. Instead it confronts human creativity with its own needs. It does not prepare children to enter society; it prepares them to enter more fully into their humanness. It is not interested in citizenship but in the Promethean self, in the rightful discontent of being human. It is not involved in self-expression, which is a flabby cliché, but in the creation of shared humanness. How else can young people survive even the memory of what many of their elders did in the last century? Or leave a world more innocent than the one they entered? Perhaps those elders learnt to accept injustices and contradictions. Drama confronts young people with situations in which that injustice has seeped down into their own lives, or which they can easily foresee in the future. At that age such things are unacceptable. And if at that age drama ignites the self’s creativity by respecting it and trusting its strength, then society will be less able to destroy it later. We will have given it for ever the indomitable power of youth. In time it may make civilization young again.3 In Bond's evaluation of contemporary world, everyone must be aware of where and in which circumstances he is living and what possible facilities he gains. Not only adults but also children are included in this critical process. Children have a right to know the world they're in, and who they are. The writer points out that handling the case of children must be the first and primary step towards achieving this essential purpose. The most significant deduction one could possibly make out from The Children is that, there is always a positive hope for creating a good future and the search for justice because each human infant starts life with radical innocence. References Allen, David. (2005). “The Children”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, edited by David Davis, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA. Bond, Edward. (1978). Plays: Two, London, Eyre Methuen. Bond, Edward. (1994).“The Importance of Belgrade TIE”,in, SCYPT Journal, 27, pp. 36–38. Bond, Edward. (1997). Eleven Vests and Tuesday, London:Methuen. Bond, Edward. (1998). in, Ian Stuart, Edward Bond .Letters 4, Amsteldijk, Harwodd Academic Publishers. Bond, Edward. (2000). The Children, London:Methuen. 1 Nicholson, “Acting, Creativity and Social Justice: Edward Bond’s The Children, p. 20. 2 Edward Bond, Eleven Vests and Tuesday, Methuen, London, 1997, p. 91. 3 Edward Bond, “Young Civilization”, http://www.bigbrum.org.uk/, May 2007. 170 �Bond, Edward. (2000). Selections from the Notebooks of Edward Bond, Volume One, Ed. Ian Stuart, Methuen, London. Bond, Edward. (2000). The Hidden Plot: notes on theatre and the state, London:Methuen. Bond, Edward. (2000). “Words about The Children”, In. Programme for the Classworks Theatre production. Cooper, Chris. (2005). “Edward Bond and the Big Brum Plays”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child Edward Bond’s plays for young people, edited by David Davis, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA. Coult, Tony. (2005). “Building the Common Future”, in, Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, edited by David Davis, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA. Davis, David. (2005). Edward Bond and the Dramatic Child, Edward Bond’s plays for young people, Trentham Books, UK and Sterling, USA. Gillham, Geoff . (1994).“The Value of Theatre in Education”, in, SCYPT Journal, 27. Nicholson, Helen. (2003). “Acting, Creativity and Social Justice: Edward Bond’s The Children, Research in Drama Education, Vol.8, No.1. 171 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 382 Title A name given to the resource Edward Bond’s Play for Children: Education for Sustainable Development and the Need for Theatre in Education Author Author TAKKAÇ, Mehmet BİÇER, Ahmet Gökhan Abstract A summary of the resource. Education for sustainable development is a process that gives much importance to create a better, safer and a just world. It emphasizes the need for a new vision of education system. Learning for sustainable development, critical thinking, and problem solving should be the main concepts of this process and also the main principles of Theatre in Education movement. Edward Bond, one of the most innovative voices of modern British drama and a leading dramatist who writes for Theatre in Education movement, believes that theatre has a social, political and moral purpose. For this reason he writes plays for educational contexts. His greatest aim to write plays for young people is to enable children to understand themselves, the political society around them and to create a just society. His play The Children (2001) shows a bleak vision of future for children in an unjust society. This paper examines young people’s isolation in a technologised society and shows Bond’s concepts of Theatre in Education movement for a sustainable development. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed L Education (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8037283d8e9df3199e6341d46fb4419f.pdf bb0d7d8e4c00600b0c68695773916c48 PDF Text Text 1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Sustainable Redevelopment of Sanitary Landfills as Future Golf Courses Yasin Çağatay Seçkin Department of Landscape Architecture Istanbul Technical University, Turkey cseckin@itu.edu.tr Abstract: Redevelopment of sanitary landfills plays a major role in sustainable development, providing economical, social and environmental benefits. A combination of rising land values, a growing urban population, their needs for recreation activities and mitigation of ecological impacts have encouraged the conversion of completed sanitary landfills into functional golf courses. This study examines the reclamation problems of completed landfill to golf course developments and the possibility of designing a sanitary landfill based on its final use as a golf course. For this aim, a sustainable planning approach for landfill-to-golf course adaptive use projects are discussed, which combines sanitary landfill and golf course design processes and modifies them in a sustainable way. Introduction Landfill disposal of waste has been practiced for centuries, but the concept of sanitary land filling has been used for less than 100 years (Graves, 1998, Bagchi, 1994). Basically, sanitary land filling is a method of controlled disposal of refuse on land where wasteisisolated from the environment untilitissafe. First practices began in Great Britain in the 1910’s under the name controlled tipping. The refuse was being dumped between houses and the piles were being covered with street sweepings,ratherthan taking the refuse to a speciallocation and alternately layering the waste and dirt as in modern sanitary landfills. The Fresno Municipal Sanitary Landfill, opened in Fresno, California in 1937, is considered to have been the first modern sanitary landfill.In Fresno, layers of refuse were deposited in tidelands to produce additional land. Itis the firstlandfillto employ the trench method of disposaland firstto utilize compaction (Encyclopædia Britannica, 2009, Melosi, 2000). There are two types of landfills: Conventional and Bioreactor landfills. Conventionally,they consist of a clay and/or synthetic flexible membrane liner at the base of the landfillto prevent liquid seeping into ground water. Pipes are laid above the bottom liner to capture contaminated water and leachate which is the liquid produced by decomposing organic waste. This liquid is then transported to a wastewater treatment plant for treatment. The gas generated by the breakdown of wasteiscollected and burned eitherin flares orin enginesthat recover useable energy. Bioreactor landfills also work in the same way as conventional landfills but with one major difference. Some of the leachate in bioreactorlandfillsisrecycled through the waste to acceleratethe rate of decomposition. This provides more rapid stabilization of waste, controllable and increased short-term gas yields and betterleachate controlthan conventionallandfills. However, bothtypes oflandfills pose environmentalrisksfrom gas emissions and leachate. Bacteria break down organic matter and methane releases. Leachate sinks into ground and pollutes water. These effects could only be reduced with more recycling, carefully design, betterlandfill management and awareness of com munity (WSN Environmental Solutions, 2006). Because of their environmental and visual negativities, the existing image of sanitary landfill by the com munity is predictably not very good and if simply closed afterthey filled, they continue to be environmental problems and eyesores, and this situation increases the anticipation of community growth (Thompson, 2008). On the other hand, communities will need to rely on sanitary landfills because they are still the most logical and economical choice for disposal needs. According to U.S. EPA, in the United States, municipal solid waste generation in 2007 was 765 kg per person per year. While 45 percent of this total discards was either recycled or sent for combustion with energy recovery, the remaining refuse continue to be sent to landfills. In other words, sanitary landfillshost 55 percent ofthe municipal solid waste (EPA, 2008). Actually no matter how much a community recycles or sends the waste for combustion, a sanitary landfill will always be needed for residue that cannot be handled in any other way. 286 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Redevelopment of Sanitary Landfills W hen landfills reach their capacity and are closed,they offer remarkable open-space opportunities. With careful planning, completed landfills could be ultimately utilized for a variety of purposes. Converting closed landfillsinto park and recreation areas has been used during the past 50 years. Golf is one of these converted recreation areas and the research showed that first sanitary landfill used for golf courses was builtinthe early 60sin Carson, CA (Goldsberry, 1996). The importance and acceptance ofthis phenomenon is growing withthe continued expansion ofthe game and the need to clean up and rehabilitate contaminated sites (EPA, 2003). As the demand for golf continues to grow throughout the world, there is an increasing need to design and construct more golf courses. However,itis difficultto find suitable land for course construction and landfills, with their low value, may be one of the few properties large enough for golf development. So, a combination of rising land values, growing urban population, their need for recreation activities and mitigation of ecological impacts have encouraged people to convert completed sanitary landfills into functional golf courses. From environmental, economic and social standpoint,landfills and golf courses are a good match. Land improvement and adaptive reuse can be one of the most beneficial aspects of a golf course (Love, 2008). Environmental benefits of this match include many ecological enhancements like remediation of soil or treatment of ground water impacts from waste disposal. A landfill golf course can have positive economic and socialimpacts,too, by increasing land values in the vicinity and creating jobs.In addition to these benefits, golf courses are one ofthe few legalland uses forlandfillsites.(Kavazanjian, 2007, Gross, 1994). Although numerous benefits, they are not perfect and have several problems. Four main problems with landfill developments are toxic gases, uneven settling,leachate and drainage (Hazelrigg, 2005). These problems have both environmental and economical disadvantages. Another problem is directly related with designing and construction of golf course. The landfills are not suitable to cut and shape, because of their type of structure (Schmidt, 1991). According to all these problems, golf course development may not be economically feasible and construction costs may be higherthan the normal golf course. In this instance, brief descriptions of two different case studies can help for better understanding the issues associated with redevelopment of sanitary landfills as future golf courses. Harborside International Golf Center The site was originally used for disposal ofthe City of Chicago's municipal solid waste. Laterit was used to dispose of incinerator ash and wastewater sludge. In 1991, this 180 hectares solid waste landfill was closed. About 80 hectares ofthe site was a partially-closed sanitary landfilland a 100 hectares parcel was being used as a construction debris landfill. After its closure, itis decided to convert itinto a golf center. The site was near important motorways which carry approximately 300.000 cars per day. The planners anticipated that the combination of good access and a good facility would attract sufficient business to make the golf facility economically viable (EPA, 2003). Firstly, the old sanitary landfill was capped with a 50 cm-thick layer of impermeable clay - or about 400.000 m³ - dredged from the adjacent Lake Calumet. Capping the landfillto keep the ground from cracking and methane gas from migrating to the surface was an absolute necessity under currentregulations (EPA, 2003). Course architect Dick Nugent didn't want tree roots piercing the fill's clay sealant, so he designed an open, sweeping links-style facility with trees that have shallow roots, which are non destructive to the underlying clay cap (Klein, 1998). Drainage and irrigation systems were also carefully designed to protectthe integrity of the clay cap. The golf course architect and the engineer collaborated in the design of an elaborate drainage and collection system that collects all site drainage and stores it at seven dry retention locations within the site, untilit releases to a sewage treatment plant for processing (EPA, 2003). Protecting the existing wetland areas was important,too. A buffer was created at some points between the course and the shoreline, and some portions ofthe fairway were raised up to 3 metersto allow the incorporation of drainage basins to prevent storm water from flowing into the lake (EPA, 2003). Another problem was to grow turfgrass on site. Every year 200.000 m³ of sludge had been transported to the site, during the operation period oflandfills. Sludge was very organicin nature. However, because ofits high rates of fats and salts,it was not by itself, providing a good growing medium. It was drawing water out of plants and was not readily saturating. To solve this problem, a 15-20 cm layer of sand was placed over the fairway. Eventually, with the combination of materials on site and creative design,the grass flourished with virtually no additional fertilizer (EPA, 2003). At the end,the Golf Center consist a matched pair of 6.500 m, 18-hole championship golf courses and a 24 hectares practice facility,including a Golf Academy. Itwas built between 1992 and 1995 and the final cost of 287 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo golf course approached $30 million (EPA, 2003). Granite Links Golf Club This site was originally used for disposal of both Milton Town and Quincy City. Most of the land was for the famous granite quarrying industry dating back to the mid 1800’s. After abandoning quarries,it was used to dispose of municipal solid waste, construction debris and some industrial and hazardous debris (Hazelrigg, 2005). In 1989, Developers started to think about the reuse of old landfill and they decided to create a recreational complex which includes a championship golf course (Love, 2008). Total area of this complex was 220 hectares, which includes several former landfills and quarries. The golf course incorporated two largest landfills and covered 100 hectares oftotal(Hazelrigg, 2005). In the same time, another project was being prepared close to this area: Big Dig, an extensive tunnel projectforthe relocation of a major highway through the city of Boston. Developers proposed using the material excavated from the tunnel for the closure of the landfill and enhancement of degraded areas of the site (Love, 2008). Firstly, the landfill had to be closed by being capped with specific layers and depths of material. Fill material from the excavation of the highway tunnel was perhaps the most important item that made the project possible. Both Big Dig Projectand Granite Links Landfill Redevelopment Project assisted each otherin reaching their own targets. Big Dig saved $40 million by trucking excavate to landfill area rather than to sites farther away and Granite Links Projectsaved atleastthe same amount of money by closing the landfill with Big Dig fill (Hazelrigg, 2005). After the excavated fill was placed and graded to the contours designed for the golf course,it had to be sealed with 25 – 40 cm of clay, placed in 15 cm layers, de-stoned by hand and compacted to eliminate water infiltration into the landfill or allow leachate to escape. Next, a layer of 50 – 100 cm of clean fill material was placed on top ofthe clay and graded tothe design contours. Thislayer of material was designed to accommodate the sub-surface drainage system, the irrigation and gas recovery system. On top ofthe clean material,another 15 – 30 cm layer of sandy loam was placed to provide a planting medium forthe grasses (Love, 2008). The recovery system for methane gas from the landfillinvolved the installation of some 150 wells and a system of blowers and flares for control. Ultimately, this gas will be channeled to drive an engine to generate electricity and is expected to produce for some 20 to 25 years (Love, 2008). Settlement of the landfill was another concern and required close attention during design of the facilities. Most of the play areas were surcharged with huge stockpiles of excavated fill, whenever possible, as construction progressed (Love,2008). After thirteen years, 900,000 truckloads of fill material and a cost more than $110 million, the 27-hole Granite Links Golf Course, athletic fields, rock climbing sites, hiking trails and other amenities provide a successfulrecreationalfacilityforthe visitors(Hazelrigg, 2005).If considered the EPA’s assumption aboutfinal costs of landfill golf courses, which is between $25-30 million, this cost looks a little bit costly for these kind operations (Walsh, 2003). Butit must be considered thatthe final costincludesthe cost of filling and capping the landfill as part ofthe construction cost where others use previously filled landfills. A Sustainable Planning Approach for Landfill to Golf Course Development As is seen, problems encountered in landfill golf courses differfrom case to case and solutions depend on how creative the designer is.Just one common problem is about the planning approach. Like above mentioned examples,in most cases, golfcourses designed on landfillsare afterthought projects and they did not plan before the landfill was designed. However, the best strategy must be to plan for the final use before the landfill is designed (O’Leary, 1992). This will be extremely beneficialfrom both environmental and economical aspects. To plan for the final use from the beginning of landfill design and planning,typical sanitary landfill and golf course processes must be combined and both must be modified in a sustainable way. Inventory and Analysis First of all, a detailed inventory and analysis should be conducted, as in every project. The desirable design features forthe landfilland future golf course should be reflected in the program and siteinventory. The program and siteinventory provides a means of gathering information about client’s needs and site properties. A typicalinventory data could be formed with the facts below: - The wastesto be received 288 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo (Total volume, sources and types of wastes, daily quantity estimation, etc) - The landfill method and materialsto be used (Type of method,landfill operation time, degree of compaction, filling materials, etc) - The landfill design (Proposed landfill elements, cover thickness,slope, additive cover/waste ratio, etc) - The golf course design (Type of golf course, proposed golf course facilities, etc) - The specific siteinformation (Geology, soiltype,topography, existing vegetation, sensitive fields, etc) - The client’s needs and purposes - Social, political and economic considerations. After collecting program and site inventory data, they must be analyzed to determine site potential and restrictions for golf course conversion. The goal of this analysis is to integrate the golf course design elements with the landfillones, in unison withthe site. This analysisrequires ateam of consultants whoseinitial goalisto produce a restrictions map and a report of development challenges and opportunities (Hurdzan, 2006). Design Development Considering the landfill and golf course projects simultaneously makes the design development process complicated. In the proposed process, the landfill and golf course projects are separated, to create as many alternatives as possible. However,the alternatives should be based on the concepts and site specific conditions noted in the results of analysis report. Because of the special case of sanitary landfills, a design completed without care to the results of analysis report,the course can quickly become a disaster area (Graves, 1998). The next step isto overlay those alternative designs and to adjustthem to develop the best master plan for the landfill-to-golf course project. During design development process, the course architect must study in cooperation with the consulting engineer of the landfill. The process of coming to the final design solution required patience, much error, a bit more trial and severalfeedback processes. Evaluation Process First step for this process is feasibility study. Normally, feasibility studies are prepared by a team of consultants and this is usually undertaken in cooperation with the golf course architect and other members of analysis and design development processes. In this stage, client’s needs and purposes are the most important parameter (Hurdzan, 2006). Ideally, feasibility studies should include estimation and evaluation of net benefits with alternatives for achieving the defined public goals and, both quantitative and socialimpact analysis, which is hard to estimate, must be taken into account (Yang, 1993). After finishing the feasibility study, economic, environmental and social benefits of project will become definite. If the total benefit is less than the total cost, the proposed design will not acceptable and the whole design process should be repeated to change until the benefit is greater than the cost. Here, both the environmental and economic costs have an equal importance. For example, an ideal result in terms of profitability may not be ideal for environment. On the other hand, because of environmental issues and legal restrictions,the total cost of a landfill golf course can be more expensive than a comparable course created on a natural site. Sure, not all golf courses should be low-cost, but cost – benefit balance must be achieved. Otherwise, a loss-making golf course will never be sustainable in terms of both environmental and social responsibility. Except allthese, feasibility study validates the prospective timeline of golf course development. Before moving into construction phase, the data generated by the study could be used to help set milestones and deadlines for golf course development. Following the feasibility study process,alllegalrequirementsfor operating, closing, and then maintaining a landfill must be studied. These requirements are usually strict and they include location restrictions, facility design criteria, closure care requirements, cap zone design criteria, gas and groundwater monitoring requirements (Graves, 1998,Rogoff, 1992). Afterthe feasibility and alllegalrequirements are studied,all planning processis complete and itisready to be realized. 289 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Conclusion The approach inthis paperisbased on the beliefthatifthe community needs alandfill,landfilldesign and its future land use should be considered at the beginning of the development process. With this belief, a sustainable planning approach was developed to pave the way of sustainable redevelopment of sanitary landfills as future golf courses. This approach consists ofthree steps: - Inventory and analysis process - Design development process - Evaluation process After completing every process, a feedback process is also needed. In this way, the planning approach works like a flow chart with a series of accepted or not accepted answers. When all processes are completed with accepted answer, then, our sanitary landfill will be ready to contribute to sustainability by achieving beneficial and profitable future use ofthe site, as a golf course. References Bagchi, A. (1994). Design, Construction and Monitoring of Landfills. 2nd ed., New York, NJ: Wiley-Interscience. Encyclopædia Britannica (2009). Sanitary Landfill. Retrieved April 24, 2009, from Encyclopædia Britannica Online. EPA Office of Solid Waste (2008). Municipal Solid Waste in The United States. Washington, DC: EPA. EPA Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (2003). Reusing Cleaned Up Superfund Sites: Golf Facilities Where Waste is Left on Site. Washington, DC: EPA Goldsberry, C., (1996) Golf Links Old Landfills to New Uses, Waste & Recycling News. February 26, 1996. Graves, R.M. & Cornish, G.S. (1998). Golf Course Design. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Gross, P.J. (1994). What Can You Do If Your Golf Course Has Gas. USGA Green Section Record. July/August 1994, 1-4. Hazelrigg, G. (2005). Garbage In, Golf Out. Landscape Architecture Magazine. January 2005, 54-62. Hurdzan, M.J. (2006). Golf Course Architecture: Evoluations in Design, Construction and Restoration Technology. 2nd ed., Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Kavazanjian, E. (2007). Sustainable Redevelopment of Former and Abandoned Landfills: Lessons From Practice. 11th International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium. Cagliari, Italy: CISA, Environmental Sanitary Engineering Center. Klein, B.S., (1998). Reclamation Projects: The Greening of A Landfill. The New York Times. May, 28, 1998. Love, B. (2008). An Environmental Approach to Golf Course Development. Brookfield,WI: American Society of Golf Course Architects. Melosi, M.V. (2000). Fresno Sanitary Landfill. National Historic Landmark Nomination (NPS Form 10-900), Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Interior, National Parks Service. O’Leary, P & Walsh, P. (1992). Landfill Closure and Long Term Care. West Age. March 1992, 87-94. Rogoff, M. (1992) New Landfill Regulations. American City & County, January 1992, 20-22. Schmidt, E.Jr. (1991). Garbage to Golf. Golf Journal. January/February 1991, 35-38. Thompson, W. & Sorvig, K. (2008). Sustainable Landscape Construction: A Guide to Green Building Outdoors. 2nd ed., Washington, DC: Island Press. Walsh, J.J., DiPuccio, A.J. & Simon, R.A. (2003). Golf Courses to Greenhouses – And Beyond Redevelopment of Closed Landfills. Cincinnati, OH: SCS Engineers. 290 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo WSN Environmental Solutions (2006). Landfills What You Need to Know: Responsible Management of Our Landfills. Chatswood DC, New South Wales: WSN Environmental Solutions. Yang, C.C. (1993) A Study of Designing/Reclaiming A Sanitary Landfill As A Future Golf Course. Master Thesis, Baton Rouge, LA: LSU. 291 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 485 Title A name given to the resource Sustainable Redevelopment of Sanitary Landfills as Future Golf Courses Author Author Seçkin, Yasin Çağatay Abstract A summary of the resource. Redevelopment of sanitary landfills plays a major role in sustainable development, providing economical, social and environmental benefits. A combination of rising land values, a growing urban population, their needs for recreation activities and mitigation of ecological impacts have encouraged the conversion of completed sanitary landfills into functional golf courses. This study examines the reclamation problems of completed landfill to golf course developments and the possibility of designing a sanitary landfill based on its final use as a golf course. For this aim, a sustainable planning approach for landfill-to-golf course adaptive use projects are discussed, which combines sanitary landfill and golf course design processes and modifies them in a sustainable way. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/60876f3b41a4e1247dfdd9821188c1c3.pdf c219d4eed6e807374ed2be1c389423d9 PDF Text Text A Study of Differences in Learning Orientations of EFL Students Öznur Semiz English Language and Literature Department Karadeniz TechnicalUniversity Turkey oznur@atauni.edu Makbule Küleri English Language Teaching Department Atatürk University gamzegen@yahoo.com Abstract: This study reports on an investigation into differences in learning orientations of EFL students at Atatürk University located in Erzurum, Turkey, using Vermunt’s (1977) Inventory of Learning Styles (ILS). The Inventory of Learning Styles (ILS) is an instrument aimed at measuring several components of student learning, namely, cognitive processing strategies, metacognitive regulation strategies, conceptions of learning, and learning orientations. This study focuses on determining patterns in student learning in only one learning style category: learning orientations. For statistical analyses, Mann Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis tests were used. No significant differences were found with regards to department. Some significant differences were present with respect to gender and class level. Introduction Students in higher education differ in what they hope to achieve from being in higher education. Some wish to gain a qualification, while for others their main concern is to pursue an interest. The orientation of the students towards learning and the higher education study is a significant determinant of what students in higher education attend to, how they study, and finally what they learn. Beaty, Gibbs, and Morgan (1997) introduced four learning orientations based on four main functions of higher education—academic, vocational, personal and social. They define learning orientations as “all those attitudes and aims which express the student's individual relationship with a course of study and the university. It is the collection of purposes which form the personal context for the individual student's learning. The idea of an orientation assumes that students have an active relationship with their studying. From the point of view of learning orientation, success and failure is judged in terms of the extent to which students fulfill their own aims”(p. 76). The work of Beaty and her colleagues on learning orientations overlaps with dimensions within Vermunt's (1998) Inventory of Learning Styles (ILS), discussed later, and also with the literature on goal orientation theory; however, it differs in important ways. Goal orientation theory has typically focused on students’ perceptions of why they are trying to achieve in academic settings with most of the research being centred on the study of task goals and ability goals (Urdan & Maehr, 1995). In contrast, learning orientations focus more on students’ perceptions of what they are trying to achieve in their studying (Entwistle & Peterson, 2005) . The concept of “learning orientation” refer to the whole domain of personal goals, intentions, motives, expectations, attitudes, concerns, and doubts students have in following a educational programme or a course (Gibbs, Morgan & Taylor, 1984). They are long-term general educational goals students set for themselves. There will thus always be a mixture of motives for attending higher education and choosing a particular set of courses. As students progress through higher education, their orientations usually change. This tends to happen with changing circumstances and in re-evaluating their own capabilities and intentions and develop when an individual interacts with a given higher education context at a particular time in her/his life (Webber,2004). In the ILS, the learning orientation domain (motivation) has five scales: personally interested, certificate oriented, self-test oriented, vocation oriented, and ambivalent. These sub-sections focused upon in this study are: 1. Personal interests where students are motivated from perceived intrinsic benefits to themselves. Students with this orientation are motivated by their interest in the subject and their own personal development; 101 �2. Certificate directed interests where learning is seen as being a means to an end – to pass exams or obtain a certification. Students with this orientation see education primarily as a means of obtaining a certificate or qualification; 3. Self-test directed interests where learning is seen as a personal challenge. This includes studying to test one’s own capabilities and to prove to oneself and others that one is able to cope with the demands of higher education. 4. Vocation directed interests where learning is a means to advance in a profession or trade learning. Students with this orientation see education primarily as a means of acquiring skills for a specific occupation and for securing employment; 5. Ambivalent directed interest where the process is perceived as too challenging and/or inappropriate. Students with this orientation have an insecure, hesitant attitude towards education and little confidence in their learning abilities. Table 1 shows sample items from the subscales. ___________________________________________________________________________ 1. Personally Interested 60. The only aim of my studies is to enrich myself. 73. I do these studies because I like to learn and study. 2. Certificate Directed 63. What I want in these studies is to earn credits for a diploma. 75. To me, written proof of having passed an exam represents something of value in itself. 3. Self-Test Directed 53. I want to prove to myself that I am capable of doing studies in higher education. 67. I want to discover my own qualities, the things I am capable and incapable of. 4. Vocation Directed 62. For the kind of work I would like to do, I need to have studied in higher education. 68. What I want to acquire above all through my studies is professional skill. 5. Ambivalent 54. I doubt whether this is the right subject area for me. 70. I wonder whether these studies are worth al the effort. Table 1. Sample Items from ILS The Study The Aim of the Study The aim of this study is to determine differences in learning orientations of EFL students with respect to selected variables, such as department, class level and gender. The research question guiding the present study is: Are there any differences in learning orientations of EFL students with respect to department, gender and class level? Participants EFL students at Departments of English Language Teaching (ELT) and English Language and Literature (ELL) were invited to participate in this study. Interested students were given a brief and informative overview of the nature and purpose of the study during a lesson. A total of 308 EFL students volunteered to participate in this study. Of these, 157 were ELT (50, 6%) and 152 were ELL (49, 4%). Of the participants, 79 (25, 6%) were male, 229 (74, 4%) were female. The total sample consisted of 74 (24%) sophomores, 89 (28, 9%) juniors and 145 (47, 1%) seniors. Freshmen students were not included in the study because they were absent Instrument The Inventory of Learning Styles (ILS) (Vermunt 1998) has been developed in the context of higher education, and helps to determine three different levels of student learning. Vermunt (1996,1998) uses the term ‘learning style’ as a superordinate concept in which the cognitive and affective processing of subject matter, the metacognitive regulation of learning, mental models of learning, and learning orientations are united. The Inventory of Learning Styles has both 100-item and 120-item versions and provides scores on four learning styles and four domains. The four learning domains were identified as cognitive processing strategies (cognition), metacognitive 102 �regulation strategies (metacognition), conceptions of learning (views about teaching and learning), and learning orientations (motivation). Each of these had five scales (Vermunt, 1996, 1998, 2005). This study focuses on determining patterns in student learning in only one learning style category: learning orientations. The survey instrument consisted of 25 items. Students were asked to indicate on a five-point scale (1.Disagree entirely, 2. Disagree for the most part, 3. Undecided, 4. Agree for the most part and 5. Agree entirely) the degree to which the described items correspond to their own practice, views or motives. Data Analysis Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS version 16, 0). Since the aim of the study is to assess whether there are significant departmental, gender and class differences in respondents’ perceptions and the data for the ILS consisted of ordinal variables, the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney and Kruskal Wallis tests were used. The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test (also called the Wilcoxon rank sum test or the Mann-Whitney U test) is a non-parametric test and is analogous to the parametric two sample t-test. The Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test is used to test whether the difference between the medians of the two groups is significant. The Kruskal-Wallis test is used to determine whether differences among three or more groups are significant in situations that do not meet the assumptions necessary for ANOVA. These tests are used when the normality assumption is questionable and/or when data is ordinal, i.e. when the data can be ranked. Thus, they are most suitable for an analysis in this study. Findings Results of the Mann Whitney U-test for learning orientation scores of ELT and ELL groups are presented in Table 2. Mann-Whitney U-test (P<.05) test showed that ELT and ELL students do not appear to differ in their learning orientations. Most of the differences found between departments were very small. Some moderate differences were: ELT students were more personally interested, certificate directed and self-test directed. ELL students were slightly more vocation directed and ambivalent. Subscale Department N Mean Z Rank PersonallyInterested CertificateDirected SelfTestDirected VocationDirected Ambivalent ELT 156 ELL 152 Total 308 ELT 156 ELL 152 Total 308 ELT 156 ELL 152 Total 308 ELT 156 ELL 152 Total 308 ELT 156 ELL 152 Total 308 Asymp. Sig. 161,38 147,44 155,39 153,59 ,859 - ,741 - ,652 - ,870 ,452 153,68 155,34 - ,330 152,25 156,81 ,167 ,178 156,15 152,81 1,380 ,164 Table 2. Results of the Mann Whitney U-test for Learning Orientation Scores of ELT and ELL Groups In regard to class level differences, Kruskal-Wallis test (p < .05) revealed that sophomores had the highest 103 �rank on personal interest (170, 24), Sef-test directed (164, 79) and vocation directed (170, 57) scales. Seniors had the highest rank on certificate-directed (168, 99) and ambivalent (164, 92) scales. Juniors occupied the middle rank position on all five scales. Table 3 displays the results of the Kruskal-Wallis test. Subscale Class N Mean Rank PersonallyInterested CertificateDirected SelfTestDirected VocationDirected Ambivalent Asymp. Sig. Sophomore 74 170,24 Junior 89 161,44 Senior 145 142,21 Total 308 Sophomore 74 129,47 Junior 89 151,71 Senior 145 168,99 Total 308 Sophomore 74 164,79 Junior 89 153,89 Senior 145 149,62 Total 308 Sophomore 74 170,57 Junior 89 162,04 Senior 145 141,67 Total 308 Sophomore 74 137,88 Junior 89 151,34 Senior 145 164,92 Total 308 ,059 ,007 ,487 ,047 ,095 Table 3. Kruskal Wallis Test results of Class Level Differences Table 4 shows the results of the Mann-Whitney U-test (P<.05) that was used to test for group differences between male and female students. With respect to gender, the results of the Mann-Whitney U test showed there were significant differences in the perceptions of female and male students. Female students were found to be more personally interested more self-test directed and more vocation directed than male students. However, male students scored high on ambivalent and certificate-directed scales. 104 �Subscale Gender N Mean Z Rank PersonallyInterested CertificateDirected SelfTestDirected VocationDirected Ambivalent Female 229 Male 79 Total 308 Female 229 Male 79 Total 308 Female 229 Male 79 Total 308 Female 229 Male 79 Total 308 Female 229 Male 79 Total 308 Asymp. Sig. 163,97 127,05 150,97 164,73 ,235 - ,010 - ,012 - ,012 2,509 150,42 166,32 - 2,576 161,95 132,91 ,001 1,188 162,15 132,32 3,192 1,372 Table 4. Results of the Mann Whitney U-test for Gender Differences Conclusion The aim of this study was to determine whether there are differences in learning orientations of EFL with respect to department, class grade and gender. The results show that both departments in this study generally held similar views about what motivates them to learn. For that reason, it seems possible to conclude that learning orientations of EFL students do not vary by educational context. The results showed that gender and class level are important sources of variations in learning orientations. Fore example, female students were found to have more personal interest than male students and male students are more certificate-directed than female students. It seems that in Turkish culture, gender is still a key variable that may directly influence or even determine attitudes or motivations or behaviors (Tercanlıoğlu, 2005). Another finding is that as students progress through higher education, they more likely become less personally interested, self-test directed ,vocation-directed and more certificate-directed and ambivalent. Although the results of this study are limited in terms of sample size and generalization, it gives some insight into what motivates students to learn in an academic environment and the motives, objectives and attitudes they may have with regard to their studies. Students may display several goals for studying, for instance gathering knowledge, passing exams, avoiding failure, pleasing parents, and qualifying for later studies or a future profession. These orientations are believed to influence the way learning takes place (Boekaerts, 1996 and Pintrich & Schunk, 1996). To understand the academic behaviors of university students, researchers and educators must begin by understanding what motivates university students to engage in such behaviors in the first place. Therefore, a learning orientation provides a useful construct for understanding a student’s personal context for study (Beaty et al, 1997) and contributes to our understanding of what students learn. As France and Beaty (1998) point out, they provide a means of gaining a better understanding of the complexities of learner motivations and how these influence learning. An understanding of learning orientations may be extremely useful to both educators and students in understanding student motivations and making the most of learning opportunities. Focusing on orientations to learning could prove an effective means of helping students to challenge their own assumptions about higher education and explore possibilities which they would otherwise not have considered. 105 �References Beaty L, Gibbs G, Morgan A. Learning orientations and study contracts. In: Marton F, Hounsell D, Entwistle N, editors. The Experience of Learning. 2nd ed. Edinburgh: Scottish Academic Press, 1997, 72–86. Boekaerts, M. 1996. Personality and the psychology of learning. European Journal of Personality 10, pp. 377–404 Coeffield, F. M. D. Hall, E. and Ecclestone, K. (2004) Learning Style and Pedagogy in Post–16 Learning: A systematic and critical review. London: Learning and Skills Research Centre. Entwistle, N.J. & Peterson,E. R. 2004. Conceptions of Learning and Knowledge in Higher Education: Relationships with Study Behaviour and Influences of Learning Environments. International Journal of Educational Research, 41.407–428. Entwistle, N. J. 1979 Motivation, styles of learning and the academic environment. University of Edinburgh, Scotland: Scottish Academic Press. Pintrich, P. R., & Schunk, D. H. (1996). Motivation in education: theory, research and applications. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. Slaats, A. Lodewijks, H.G.L.C., & Vander-Sanden, J.M.M.(1999). Learning styles in secondary vocational education: Disciplinary differences. Learning and Instruction, 9, 475–492. Tercanlioglu, L. (2005). Pre-service EFL teachers’ beliefs about foreign language learning and how they relate to gender. Electronic Journal of Research in Educational Psychology, 5-3(1), 145-162. Urdan, T., & Maehr, M. L. (1995). Beyond a two-goal theory of motivation: A case for social goals. Review of Educational Research, 65, 213–244. Vermetten, Y.J. Vermunt, J.D. & Lodewijks, H.G. (1999b). A longitudinal perspective on learning strategies in higher education: Different viewpoints towards development. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 69, 221–242. Vermunt, J.D. (1995). Process-oriented instruction in learning and thinking strategies. European Journal of Psychology of Education, 10, 325–349. Vermunt, J.D. (1996). Metacognitive, cognitive and affective aspects of learning styles and strategies: a phenomenographic analysis. Higher Education, 31, 25–50. Vermunt, J.D. (1998). The regulation of constructive learning processes. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 68, 149–171. Vermunt, J.D. (2005). Relations between student learning patterns and personal and contextual factors and academic performance. Higher Education, 49, 205–234. Vermunt, J.D. & Verloop, N. (1999a). Congruence and friction between learning and teaching. Learning Instruction, 9, 157–180. Vermunt, J.D. & Verloop, N. (1999b). The regulation of constructive learning processes. British Journal of Educational Psychology, 68, 149–171. (See Van Eekelen, et al, 2005, p. 451). Vermunt, J. & Vermetten, Y. (2004). Patterns in student learning: relationships between learning strategies, conceptions of learning, and learning orientations. Educational Psychology Review, 16, 359–384. Webber, Trix(2004)'Orientations to learning in mid-career management students',Studies in Higher Education,29:2,259 — 277 Wlodkowski, R.J. (1999). Enhancing adult motivation to learn (Rev. ed.). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers. 106 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 348 Title A name given to the resource A Study of Differences in Learning Orientations of EFL Students Author Author Semiz , Öznur Küleri, Makbule Abstract A summary of the resource. This study reports on an investigation into differences in learning orientations of EFL students at Atatürk University located in Erzurum, Turkey, using Vermunt’s (1977) Inventory of Learning Styles (ILS). The Inventory of Learning Styles (ILS) is an instrument aimed at measuring several components of student learning, namely, cognitive processing strategies, metacognitive regulation strategies, conceptions of learning, and learning orientations. This study focuses on determining patterns in student learning in only one learning style category: learning orientations. For statistical analyses, Mann Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis tests were used. No significant differences were found with regards to department. Some significant differences were present with respect to gender and class level. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed L Education (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f8bbe84af70a440e89bb3408e36cc422.pdf 6caa2b473e22ea7a1820aaadde2689de PDF Text Text 1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Economic and Technical Analysis of Fresh Bean Cultivation in Turkey M urat Sayili Gaziosmanpasa University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics Tokat/ TURKEY, muratsayili@yahoo.com Hasan Akca Gaziosmanpasa University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics Tokat/ TURKEY, akcahasan@yahoo.com Oral Duzdemir Gaziosmanpasa University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Field Crops Tokat/ TURKEY, orald@gop.edu.tr Abstract: This study investigates socio-economic situation of fresh bean growers, inputs and outputs related to bean growing, production and marketing problems faced by farmers, etc. In addition, profitability of fresh bean production was determined. Data were collected from 86 farms located in Tokat province of Turkey via survey. It was carried out in SeptemberOctober 2008. Research shows that fresh bean cultivation is profitable. Selling price ranges from $0.6 to $1.5 kg-1.Fresh bean growers are open to innovation. Keywords: Fresh bean, economic and technical analysis, Turkey Introduction Bean is cultivated widelyin Turkey and consumed as fresh,freezed, canned and dried. According to 2007 data, production area, production amount and yield of green bean in Turkey were 60 000 ha, 499 298 tons, and 8 321.6 kg ha-1,respectively (FA O 2009). Tokat province was chosen as research area because it produces nearly 6.0% of Turkey’s fresh bean production. Production area was 2576 ha in Tokat province (Anonymous 2009). Literature review shows that many studies were carried outin agriculturalfaculties and research institutes established in different regions of Turkey but majority ofthem investigate relationships between yield and yield components, adaptation ability of genotypes, etc. Number ofstudies focus on economic analysis of fresh bean is very limited. Therefore,the aims of this study were to determine current situation and profitability of fresh bean production and problems faced by farmers. Material and Methods Data were collected from 86 farms located in Tokat province of Turkey via survey. Questionnaires were carried outin September-October 2008. The method of simplerandom sampling was used to determine farms to be surveyed (Dixon & Massey 1969): n= N .S 2 .t 2 (N − 1).E 2 + S 2 .t 2 W here, n is sample size, N is number of farm in the population, S is standard deviation,tis table value (1.86) at 95% significance level and 10% error, E is error. Production cost, yield, output price, gross-margin and net profit were calculated while analysing 57 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo profitability of fresh bean. Amount and price of both input and output were taken into consideration while analysing cost. Capital interest was accepted as half of credit interest for crops (13.13%) applied by TR Agricultural Bank (Gunes et al. 1988, Kiral et al. 1999). Administration cost was accepted as 3% of variable costs. Research Findings A mount of yield and type of agricultural applications can be changed due to having different and wide agro-ecologicalregion in the research area. Socio-economic characteristics Age categorises of bean growers are: less than 30 years old (18.60), between 31 and 40 years old (18.60%), between 41 and 50 years old (30.24%), 50 years and old (32.56%). Average age of farmers was 43.88 years old.Interms of education, majority(83.72%) ofthe bean growers was graduated from primary school. The ratio of fresh bean growers having secondary and high school were 6.98%, and 9.30%, respectively. Technical characteristics Fresh bean is generally grown as main crop in the research area. Only small percentage of producers grows it as second crop. Investigated farms have used commonly certified varieties (69.77%). More than half of them use new seeds every year.It means that growers are open to innovation in the subject of seed and aware of advantage of using certified seeds. Fresh bean growers get seed from different sources: Private sector (53.49%), Own Farms (41.86%), Branch of Ministry of Agriculture (16.28%), and Neighbour Farms (13.95%). Nearly 63% of the growers prefer dwarf types of fresh bean, 40% green bean-indeterminate, 16% kidney bean-indeterminate, and 2% kidney bean-dwarf. Average seed usage was calculated as 80.4 kg ha-1 for green bean-dwarf, 46.25 kg ha-1 for green bean-indeterminate,70.0 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-dwarf,and 60.0 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-indeterminate when fresh bean is sown as main crop. It was 81.8 kg ha-1 for green bean-dwarf, and 67.0 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-indeterminate when bean is grown as second crop. Average rainfall in Tokat province is about 400 mm for long years. Therefore, dry bean is generally irrigated in the area. Great Majority of the growers (97.67%) use surface irrigation system. Only 2.33% of the respondents used drip irrigation system. Farmers face some technical problems during the growing of fresh bean and also marketing problems after harvesting it. Problems faced by fresh bean growers can be summarised as: high input price (60.47%), not being organised under umbrella of producers union or cooperatives (58.14%), pest and diseases (48.84%), market uncertainty (46.51%), inadequate labour (23.26%), low output price (20.93%), spring frost hazard (16.28%),lack oftechnical knowledge (16.28%), and inadequate finance (9.30%). Growers selltheir productsin three ways:in cash (48.84%),forward sale (30.23%), mixed sale (20.93%). Economic analysis Total production cost was calculated as $11085.3 per ha for green bean-indeterminate, $7830.1 per ha for kidney bean-indeterminate, $4579.2 per ha for green bean-dwarf, $4375.4 per ha for kidney bean-dwarf. These are sown as main crop. On the other hand,total production cost waslower for green bean-dwarf($4285.5 per ha) and kidney bean-indeterminate ($3488.8 per ha) which were sown as second crop. Variable costs constitute great majority oftotal production costsin alltypes of fresh bean. Especiallytillage,seed,fertiliser and harvesting cost have the highest proportion within variable costs. Rent forland constitutes majority ofthe fixed costs (Table 1). Within the main crop,the highest and the lowest yields were obtained as 22087.0 kg ha-1 for green beanindeterminate and 12500.0 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-dwarf, respectively. On the other hand, within the second crop,the highest and lowest yields were calculated as 15930.6 kg ha-1 for green bean-dwarf and 10526.3 kg ha-1 for kidney bean-indeterminate (Table 2). 58 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Fresh bean growing had positive net profit for all types of production. Indeterminate green bean ($15419.1 per hectare) sown as main crop had three times net profitcompared to dwarf green bean ($4280.0 per hectare). Same result can be said for kidney bean sown as main crop. For main crop, cost-effectiveness was calculated as 2.48 for kidney bean-indeterminate ($1 cost for fresh bean production leadsto $2.48 income). On the other hand,for second crop, cost-effectiveness was calculated as 3.31 for kidney bean-indeterminate. Selling price ranges from $0.6 to $1.5 kg-1. For main crop,the highest selling price was determined as $1.5 kg-1 for kidney bean-indeterminate. For second crop,the highest price was $1.1 kg-1.The lowest selling price was $0.6 kg-1 for all dwarf bean types. Activities Tillage Cultivation Nursing * Fertilisation * Applying Pesticides * Irrigation * Hoeing Various Inputs * Seed * Fertiliser * Pesticides * Water Harvest Transportation Total(A) Capitalinterest (B=A*0,0656) Total Variable Cost (C=A+B) Rent forland (D) Administrative cost (E=C*0.03) Other cost (Tax, stake, etc.)(F) Total Fixed Cost (G=D+E+F) Total Production Cost (H=C+G) Activities Yield (kg ha-1) (A) Price of Bean ($ kg-1) (B) Gross Product Value ($ ha-1) (C=A*B) Main Crop Green Bean Kidney Bean D warf Indeterminate D warf Indeterminate 470.4 466.1 480.0 582.1 112.2 293.9 180.0 256.6 Second Crop Green Bean Kidney Bean D warf Indeterminate 335.1 466.6 100.8 101.0 17.0 21.1 31.4 239.9 110.2 101.6 84.2 601.2 60.0 90.0 210.0 240.0 84.4 48.6 76.2 376.0 15.0 21.6 35.6 290.4 12.6 12.6 6.3 124.2 632.6 347.3 165.8 235.4 997.6 107.6 3 378.3 382.6 520.8 348.9 103.0 3 673.0 595.7 7 281.2 560.0 326.0 200.0 280.0 600.0 20.0 3 246.0 537.9 378.5 263.2 135.2 1 586.2 351.8 4 676.7 590.8 294.9 179.4 278.4 930.6 42.6 3 115.2 517.0 227.4 85.2 273.7 703.4 4.2 2 534.2 221.6 477.7 212.9 306.8 204.4 166.2 3 599.9 859.4 7 758.9 1 168.6 3 458.9 800.0 4 983.5 1 158.6 3 319.6 854.9 2 700.4 635.8 108.0 232.8 103.8 149.5 99.6 81.0 11.9 1 925.0 12.7 1 538.5 11.4 71.6 979.3 3 326.4 916.5 2 846.6 965.9 788.4 4 579.2 11 085.3 4 375.4 7 830.1 4 285.5 Table 1: Total production costfor fresh bean growing ($ ha-1) 3 488.8 Main Crop Green Bean Kidney Bean D warf Indeterminate D warf Indeterminate Second Crop Green Bean Kidney Bean D warf Indeterminate 14 765.4 22 087.0 12 500.0 12 931.0 15 930.6 10 526.3 0.6 1.2 0.6 1.5 0.6 1.1 8 859.2 26 504.4 7 500.0 19 396.5 9 558.4 11 578.4 59 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Variable Cost ($ ha-1) (D) Production Cost ($ ha-1) (E) Gross-Margin ($ ha-1) (F=C–D) Net Profit ($ ha-1) (G=C-E) Cost-Effectiveness (H=C/E) 3 599.9 7 758.9 3 458.9 4 983.5 3 319.6 2 700.4 4 579.2 11 085.3 4 375.4 7 830.1 4 285.5 3 488.8 5 259.3 18 745.5 4 041.1 14 413.0 6 238.8 8 878.0 4 280.0 15 419.1 3 124.6 11 566.4 5 272.9 8 089.6 2.23 3.31 1.93 2.39 1.71 2.48 Table 2: Gross-margin and net profitfor fresh bean Conclusion and Recommendation • • • • • More than half ofthe fresh bean growers use certified seeds. They are open to innovation. Educationallevel of growers islow. This should be isolated via theoretical and applied training course. Fresh bean cultivation is profitable. Especially, green bean-indeterminate and kidney beanindeterminate had three times positive net profit,compared to green bean-dwarf and kidney bean-dwarf. Selling price ranges from $0.6 to $1.5 kg-1. If fresh bean producers were organised under umbrella of producer union, selling of fresh bean at desired price and increase income of bean growers could be achieved. Growers selltheir productsin three ways:in cash,forward sale, mixed sale.In orderto isolate negative effects of price fluctuations, growers should be informed about market structure or market boards should be established. References Anonymous (2009). Records of Tokat provincial directorate of Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Turkey. Dixon, W.J., & Massey, F.J. (1969). Introduction to Statistical Analysis. Kogakasha: McGraw-Hill Book Company. FAO (2009). Statistical database (www.fao.org). Gunes, T., Kiral, T., Arikan, R., Bulbul, M., Cetin, B., Tatlidil, F., Albayrak, N., Meshur, M., & Celen H. (1988). Baslica Tarim Urunleri Maliyetleri Arastirma Projesi II. TMO Aklasan Matbaasi, Ankara-Turkey. Kiral, T., Kasnakoglu, H., Tatlidil, F., Fidan, H., & Gundogmus, E. (1999). Methodology for Revenue and Cost Calculation for Agricultural Products and Data Base Guideline. AERI Project Report 1999-13, Ankara-Turkey. 60 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 472 Title A name given to the resource Economic and Technical Analysis of Fresh Bean Cultivation in Turkey Author Author Sayili, Murat Akca, Hasan Duzdemir, Oral Abstract A summary of the resource. This study investigates socio-economic situation of fresh bean growers, inputs and outputs related to bean growing, production and marketing problems faced by farmers, etc. In addition, profitability of fresh bean production was determined. Data were collected from 86 farms located in Tokat province of Turkey via survey. It was carried out in September- October 2008. Research shows that fresh bean cultivation is profitable. Selling price ranges from $0.6 to $1.5 kg-1. Fresh bean growers are open to innovation Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/80121eb0f66731aa3e370f5826edd94e.pdf b927788610fede8d640432bdd55dcb0e PDF Text Text Bending Analysis of Timber Connection Strengthen with Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic Mehmet SARIBIYIK Department of Construction, Sakarya University, Adapazari, Turkey, mehmets@sakarya.edu.tr Tahir AKGUL, Department of Construction, Sakarya University, Adapazari, Turkey, takgul@sakarya.edu.tr Ahmet APAY Department of Construction, Sakarya University, Adapazari, Turkey, aapay@sakarya.edu.tr Ali SARIBIYIK Technical Higher School, Duzce University, Duzce, Turkey, alisaribiyik@hotmail.com Abstract: In order to obtain both durability and originality of the timber structures it is necessary to strengthen them particularly in the weak joint places. The aims of strengthen in the connecting places are to decrease the stress, to obtain fibre continuity, to reduce disadvantages of nail and bolts. Nowadays, Glass Fibre Reinforced Plastics, (GFRP) produced via pultrusion process that is one of fibre reinforced polymer types, are used for strengthen of the structural elements. In recently, it has been increased strengthen for timber structural elements by using GFRP because of its high strength, light weight, corrosion resistance and also very easily applying to the structures. The aim of this study is to obtain the fibre continuity of connecting places of timber structural elements of construction systems that under the bending conditions. Mechanical performances of the connecting places of fibre reinforced longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. Experimental specimens have been prepared from black pine timber which is very abundant in nature. To determine performances of the specimens, 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples, have been prepared. The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared each others. The outcomes demonstrate that the bending strength of the connection points strengthen with GFRP bar has higher than adhesively bonded connection specimen and this ratio is about 300 %. Key words: Timber Structures, Bending Strength, Longitudinal Notched Lap Joint, Glass Fibre Reinforced Plastic 1. Introduction In the continuing quest for improved performance of structural materials, scientists and engineers strive to produce either improved traditional or completely new materials. Composite materials are an example of the latter category. Within the past five decades there has been a rapid increase in the development of advanced composites incorporating fine fibres, termed fibre reinforced composites. These materials, depending on the matrix used, may be classified as a polymer, metal or ceramic matrix composites. The high cost of metal and ceramic matrix composite materials prevents their normal use in construction. The majority of composites used in the construction industry are therefore based on polymeric matrix materials. Additional factors in choosing polymeric composite materials for structural engineering applications are: the materials are lightweight, non-corrosive, chemically resistant, possess good fatigue strength, are non-magnetic, and, subject to the materials selected, can provide electrical and flame resistance. Material surfaces are also durable and require 43 �little maintenance (Extren, 1998). The construction industry appears to be gradually recognising the additional benefits offered by these materials. Timber has been extensively used in construction for many decades and has applied in many structural applications in engineering. It is a renewable resource, recyclable, relatively inexpensive, has a high strength to weight ratio and is architecturally attractive. However, wood, also has a number of disadvantages such as biological deterioration over time, dimensionally unstable in alternating environmental conditions and in flexural members it exhibits brittle tensile failures. A number of research studies have examined the option of reinforcing wooden flexural members with pultruded fibre reinforced plastic laminate, sheet and bar forms. Significant strength and stiffness increases in comparison with unreinforced members have been reported by a number of researchers (Fiorelli et al. 2003, Micelli 2005, Akgül et al. 2009). This technique can be easily and efficiently carried out and adds negligible depth and mass to the member that is being reinforced. Upgrading structures for higher working loads or restoring original design strength has been an engineering task for structures of any material. Before high strength fibre (HSF) were available, steel was mostly used for such purposes. The bonding of steel plates onto concrete was developed in the seventies. In the early eighties the steel plates were substituted by Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic (CRP). Today this is a well-established technique. It has been used successfully on approximately 400 structures world-wide as shown in Fig. 1. The main advantages of using CRP-laminates rather than the early steel plates, are their light weight and the corrosion resistance, as well as their flexibility, which allows their convenient and easy transport on rolls to the place of application. It was very tempting to use this material on timber structures as well. A considerable number of timber structures have already been reinforced successfully with CRP. Fig. 1. Restrengthening of bottom chords of the timber bridge (Steiger 1999) This paper aims to obtain the fibre continuity of connecting places of timber structural elements of construction systems that under the bending conditions. Mechanical performances of the connecting places of GFRP longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. Experimental specimens have been prepared from black pine timber which is very abundant in nature. To determine performances of the specimens, massive and 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples, have been prepared. The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared. 2. Material and Method 2.1. Timber Black Pine was the timber specimens used in the test program. The timber was all plain sawn and was harvested from the same stand. Consequently, variability in the wood resulting from contrasting environmental conditions during growth was significantly reduced. An important concern was the high juvenile wood percentage in the material and as a result increased dimensional instability present in the longitudinal direction. The timber was kiln dried in the sawmill to approximately 12±0.5 % moisture content and upon delivery to the laboratory. 2.2. Adhesive Teknobond 300 adhesive chemicals, capable of curing at room temperature and providing strong adherends, was used for bonding wood to wood as well as wood to FRP materials. This adhesive has very high adherence strength, it penetrates even very thin details due to low viscosity, it does not contain cavities, so it is not water 44 �permeable end it is used in places where we want electrical insulation. Teknobond 300 adhesive consists of two parts, a liquid resin A and a powerful hardener B. Mix the proportionally set A and B components with a low cycled drill until it takes homogenous grey colour. Mix materials in appropriate amount according to proportions of mixture by considering the material will be able to use. It should not be applied when the temperature is below than +5°C. The technical advice contained in the adhesive data sheets and that given by the manufacturers was followed closely during preparation of the test specimens. 2.3. Pultruded Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic The pultrusion process is a proven manufacturing method for obtaining lengths of high quality fibre reinforced plastic components having consistently repeatable cross-sections. Much improved mechanical properties can be obtained with this procedure due to higher fibre volume fractions than those achieved in labour intensive manual lay-up procedures. In this method, a continuous E-glass fibre reinforcement in the form of alternate layers of randomly oriented mat and layers of unidirectional roving bundles are pulled through a resin impregnator and then on through a heated die to form continuous prismatic members similar in geometry to those produced by the steel industry as seen Fig. 2 (Extren, 1998; Mallick, 1997). The pultrusion process allowed GFRP to become a competitive alternative to traditional structural materials (steel, concrete and wood). At the same time it provided a lower specific weight with respect to strength and good environmental resistance. Having resolved fundamental manufacturing constraints through the development of the pultrusion process, the mass adaptation of GFRP sections as secondary and primary load bearing elements have been used in a number of civil engineering applications. However; pultruded GFRP sections have not been applied as strengthen the timber structural element in the buildings. Therefore 7 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with pultruded GFRP bar samples of the black pine timber have been prepared and tested subjected to bending strength. Pultruded GFRP bars having a circle diameter of 0.45cm is, obtained from ESA Chemistry and Metal Industry, used in strengthening of the timber joint. Fig. 2. Examples of Pultruded GFRP profiles (Strongwell) 2.4. Preparation of Specimens The black pine timber specimens for the bending tests were 500 mm long and 30x40 mm dimensions. At the beginning, the prepared plain samples (without connection) have been tested to evaluate timber bending strength. In the second level, samples formed of two pieces having the same sizes with plain timber but combined with half-lap size in the middle are prepared (see Fig. 3). Subsequently, sawdust was completely removed, either GFRP bars were introduced in their place and, finally, GFRP materials were glued on the wood and the two pieces of wood were glued each other by using Teknobont 300 epoxy resins. After gluing, the specimens were kept under a press for a week at a temperature of about 20°C. After that the samples were cleaned and tested. 45 �Fig 3. Longitudinal notched lap joint configurations 3. Testing of Specimens Three point bending test have been applied as shown in Figs. 4 and 5. To determine performances of the specimens, have been prepared and tested according to the Turkish Standards (TS 647, TS 4499). The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared each others. The adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar sample types are named as; 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Massive Timber sample Connected timbers without reinforcement Connection with single GFRP bar under the samples Connection with double GFRP bars under the samples Connection with single GFRP bars under and top of the samples Connection with double GFRP bars under and single GFRP bars on the top of the samples Connection with double GFRP bars under and top of the samples Fig. 4. Three point bending test configurations Fig. 5. Bending test configuration of longitudinal notched lap joints 46 �4. Test Results The fibre continuity of connecting places of timber structural elements of construction systems and mechanical performances of the connecting places of fibre reinforced longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. To determine the performances of the connection specimens, 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples, have been tested and compared with massive timber and connection without reinforcement. The bending strength of the massive timber is found as 83.4 N/mm2. The connection sample without any strengthening is found as 16 N/mm2 as shown in Fig.6. This results demonstrated that the connection place needs an extra strengthen material to improve the bending strength of timber joints. The average outcomes of the timber connections bending strengths are given in Tab. 1. Tab.1. Mean value of connection bending analysis. Bending Strength (N/mm2) Samples Name Massive Timber sample 83.4 Connected timbers without reinforcement 16.0 Connection with single GFRP bar under the samples 40.9 Connection with double GFRP bars under the samples 60.3 Connection with single GFRP bars under and top of the samples 40.9 Connection with double GFRP bars under and single GFRP bars on the top of the samples 62.0 Connection with double GFRP bars under and top of the samples 61.6 90 80 Bending Strength (N/mm 2) 70 Massive Timber sample 60 50 40 30 20 10 Connected timbers without reinforcement 0 Fig. 6. Comparison of massive timber and connected samples without reinforcement To increase the performances of the connection specimens, 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples (see Fig. 7), have been tested and are compared with massive timber and connection without reinforcement. The average bending strength of the timbers strengthen with single GFRP bar under the specimen and connection with single GFRP bars under and top of the samples are found as 40.9 N/mm2. The outcomes showed that the strengthen of the connected timber is increased about 155% when compared with the adhesively bonded connection as shown in Fig. 8. The results showed that the GFRP bar on top of the specimens have no effect to the bending strength of the connection. 47 �Fig. 7. Configuration of timber connection strengthen with GFRP bar. 45 40 Connection with single GFRP bar under the samples 2 Bending Strength (N/mm ) 35 30 Connection with single GFRP bars under and top of the samples 25 20 15 10 5 Connected timbers without reinforcement 0 Fig. 8. Comparison of connected timbers without reinforcement with connection with single GFRP bar under and top of the connection To increase the performances of the connection strengthen with double GFRP bar under the specimen and connection with double GFRP bars under and top of the samples have been prepared and tested. The results demonstrate that the bending strength of the connected timber is increased about 287% when compared with the adhesively bonded connection as shown in Fig. 9. The results showed that the GFRP bar on top of the specimens have very little effect to the bending strength of the connection. 70 50 Connection with double GFRP bars under the samples 2 Bending Strength (N/mm ) 60 Connection with double GFRP bars under and top of the samples 40 30 20 10 Connected timbers without reinforcement 0 Fig 9. Comparison of connected timbers without reinforcement with Connection with double GFRP bars under and single GFRP bars on the top of the samples 48 �5. Conclusions and Recommendations Mechanical performances of the black pine timber connecting places of fiber reinforced longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared with massive timber specimens and each others. The experimental results showed as the use of GFRP bars seems to be effective strengthen materials when the timber beam subjected to bending. The outcomes demonstrate that the bending strength of the connection points strengthen with GFRP bar has higher than adhesively bonded connection about 300 %. The strengthen techniques of GFRP bars proved to be easy and fast to execute, even when on in-situ applications. Acknowledgements This work was carried out in the scope of the Sakarya University BAPK Project 2007-05-08-002 “Reinforcement of Timber Construction Elements Weak Region using Fiber Reinforced Plastic”. The financial support of the Sakarya University is gratefully acknowledged. 6. References Akgül T, Saribiyik M, Apay A., Reinforcement Of Timber Connection Areas With Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic, 5th International Advanced Technologies Symposium, 13-15 May 2009, Karabük, Turkey Extern Design Manuel., Copyright (1998) by Strongwell Corporat, Biristol Virginia, USA. Fiorelli J, Alves Dias A.(2003) Analysis of the strength and stiffness of timber beams reinforced with carbon fiber and glass fiber. Materials Research 2003; 6 (2): 193-202. Internet site, www.strongwell.com. Mallick P. K., (1997), Composite Engineering Handbook, Marcel Dekker, New York. Micelli F, Scialpi V, La Tegola A.(2005), Flexural Reinforcement of Glulam Timber Beams and Joints with Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Rods. J Composites for Construction 2005; 9 (4): 337–347 Steiger R., (1999). Wood handbook-Wood as an engineering material. Gen. Tech. Rep. FPL–GTR–113. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. Madison, WI: U.S. Steiger R., (2003), Fiber Reinforced Plastics (Frp) İn Timber Structures, Empa, Dübendorf, Switzerland, TS 647, Building Code for Timber Structures, Turkısh Standard, Ankara, 1979. TS 4499, Wood Joints- Terms and Definitions , Turkısh Standard, Ankara, 1985. 49 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 648 Title A name given to the resource Bending Analysis of Timber Connection Strengthen with Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic Author Author Sarıbıyık, Mehmet AKGUL, Tahir APAY, Ahmet Sarıbıyık, Ali Abstract A summary of the resource. In order to obtain both durability and originality of the timber structures it is necessary to strengthen them particularly in the weak joint places. The aims of strengthen in the connecting places are to decrease the stress, to obtain fibre continuity, to reduce disadvantages of nail and bolts. Nowadays, Glass Fibre Reinforced Plastics, (GFRP) produced via pultrusion process that is one of fibre reinforced polymer types, are used for strengthen of the structural elements. In recently, it has been increased strengthen for timber structural elements by using GFRP because of its high strength, light weight, corrosion resistance and also very easily applying to the structures. The aim of this study is to obtain the fibre continuity of connecting places of timber structural elements of construction systems that under the bending conditions. Mechanical performances of the connecting places of fibre reinforced longitudinal notched lap joints have been investigated. Experimental specimens have been prepared from black pine timber which is very abundant in nature. To determine performances of the specimens, 5 different types of adhesively bonded and strengthen with GFRP bar samples, have been prepared. The specimens have been tested subjected to bending strength and the obtained results have been compared each others. The outcomes demonstrate that the bending strength of the connection points strengthen with GFRP bar has higher than adhesively bonded connection specimen and this ratio is about 300 %. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/34c395ea379c3ae4868b2164bf7f3122.pdf 684fde088202b2f7d0a942d8ab1d3f6c PDF Text Text 1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Numerical Investigations of Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics of Water Based CuO and Al2O3 Nanofluids Using Two-Phase Mixture Model Bayram Şahin Atatürk University Engineering Faculty Department of Mechanical Engineering Erzurum, Turkey bsahin@atauni.edu.tr Abdurahim Bölükbaşi Atatürk University Engineering Faculty Department of Mechanical Engineering Erzurum, Turkey aboluk@atauni.edu.tr Özgür Bedir Atatürk University Engineering Faculty Department of Mechanical Engineering Erzurum, Turkey ozgurbedir@gmail.com Ömer Çomakli Bayburt University Engineering Faculty Department of Mechanical Engineering Bayburt, Turkey ocomakli@bayburt.edu.tr Abstract: The development of high-performance thermal systems has increased interest in heat transfer enhancement techniques. The application of additives to heat transfer liquids is one of the noticeable effort to enhance heat transfer. The stable suspensions of nanoparticles (typically < 100 nm) in liquids are called nanofluids. In this study, heat transfer characteristics of two different nanofluids flowing through a circular tube under constant heat flux condition have been investigated numerically. Fluent 6.3 has been used this numerical study. Two-phase mixture model has been implemented two solve the problem. The comparison has been made between calculated and experimental results. The suspended nanosized particles enhance heat transfer and Nusselt numbers by comparing pure water at the same Reynolds numbers. Moreover, pressure drops for the nanofluids is approximately the same as that of pure water. The nanofluids containing CuO has showed bigger heat transfer enhancement than Al2O3 in all volume fraction rates. Keywords: nanofluids, heat transfer, convection, nanoparticles 1. Introduction Conventional heat transfer fluids such as water, engine oil and ethylene glycol are normally used as heat transfer fluids. Since these conventional fluids have low heat transfer performance the heat transfer enhancement is limited with these conventional fluids. The use of solid particles as an additive suspended into the base fluid is a technique for the heat transfer enhancement. Innovative heat transfer fluids with nanoparticules suspended in them are called “nanofluids”. Behzadmer et al. (2007) studied turbulent forced convection heat transfer in a circular tube with a nanofluid consisting of water and 1 vol.% Cu numerically. Two phase mixture model has been implemented for the first time to study such a flow field. A single phase model formulation, which has been used frequently in the past for heat transfer with nanofluids, is also used for comparison with the mixture model. Their comparison of calculated results with experimental values shows that the mixture model is more precise than the single phase model. The axial evolution of the flow field and fully developed velocity profiles at different Reynolds numbers 306 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo are also presented and discussed. Nguyen et al (2007) have experimentally investigated the behavior and heat transfer enhancement of Al2O3 nanoparticle–water mixture, flowing inside a closed system that is destined for cooling of microprocessors or other electronic components. Experimental data, obtained for turbulent flow regime, have clearly shown that the inclusion of nanoparticles into distilled water has produced a considerable enhancement of the cooling block convective heat transfer coefficient. Hwang et al. (2008) measured the pressure drop and convective heat transfer coefficient of water-based Al2O3 flowing through a uniformly heated circular tube in the fully developed laminar flow regime. Experimental results show that the convective heat transfer coefficient enhancement exceeds, by a large margin, the thermal conductivity enhancement. They propose that flattening of velocity profile is a possible mechanism for the convective heat transfer coefficient enhancement exceeding the thermal conductivity enhancement. Heris et al. (2007) investigated laminar flow forced convection heat transfer of Al2O3/water inside a circular tube with constant wall temperature experimentally. The Nusselt numbers of nanofluids were obtained for different nanoparticle concentrations as well as various Peclet and Reynolds numbers. Experimental results emphasize the enhancement of heat transfer due to the nanoparticles presence in the fluid. Heat transfer coefficient increases by increasing the concentration of nanoparticles in nanofluid. The increase in heat transfer coefficient due to presence of nanoparticles is much higher than the prediction of single phase heat transfer correlation used with nanofluid properties. Wen and Ding (2005) studied about formulation of aqueous based nanofluids and its application under natural convective heat transfer conditions. They claimed that very stable titanium dioxide/water nanofluids could be formulated through the mechanical shear mixing and electrostatic stabilization. Both transient and steady heat transfer coefficients were obtained for different concentrations of nanofluids under natural convective conditions. The nanofluids are found to decrease the natural convective heat transfer coefficient; such deterioration increases with nanoparticle concentrations. Possible reasons/mechanisms attributed to such behavior are discussed, including the convection induced by concentration difference, particle–surface and particle–particle interactions, and modifications of the dispersion properties. Further experimental and theoretical works are being carried on to identify the exact causes. In this study two phase mixture model wa applied to study turbulent heat transfer forced convection flow of nanofluids in a uniformly heated tube. 2. Mathematical formulation 2.1. Mixture model The mixture model is based on a single fluid two phase approach. Each phase has its own velocity and own volume fraction, primary phase and the secondary phase. The dimensional equations are independent from the time. Hydraulic diameter and turbulent intensity have been specified for each Reynolds number. Nanofluid consists of water-Al2O3 and water-CuO. The simulation is a two-dimensional (axisymmetric) steady and forced turbulent convection flow of nanofluid(water-CuO and water-Al2O3). The horizontal circular tube has diameter of 0.0115 m and a length of 0.84 m. The fluid and particles insert the circular tube with uniform axial velocity and temperature. Results in this study illustrate the effect of the Reynolds number on the turbulent forced convection flow characteristics of a nanofluid consisting of water and %0.5, %1, %2, %3, %4 volume fraction CuO with 33 nm and Al2O3 with 50 nm mean diameter. The governing equations for the fluid flow are : Countinuty equation for the mixture ∇.(ρ mVm ) = 0 (1) Momentum  n  ∇.(ρ mVmVm ) = −∇p m + ∇.[τ − τ l ] + ρ m g + ∇. ∑ φ k ρ k Vdr ,k Vdr ,k   k =1  (2) Energy 307 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo ∇.(φ k Vk ( ρ k hk + p ) ) = ∇.(λeff ∇T − C p ρ m vt ) (3) Volume fraction ∇.(φ p ρ pVm ) = −∇.(φ p ρ pVdr , p ) (4) Mixture density n ρ m = ∑φk ρ k (5) k =1 Mixture viscosity n µ m = ∑ φk µ k (6) k =1 Solid viscosity model was determined from experimental work of Miller and Gidaspow(1992). µ s = −0.188 + 537.42φ Where φ is solid volume fraction and (7) µ s is in unit of centipose. Drift velocity(Vk is secondary phase velocity) Vdr , k = Vk − Vm (8) τ = µ m ∇Vm (9) n τ t = −∑ φ k ρ k v k v k (10) k =1 Slip velocity(Vp is secondary phase velocity) V pf = V p − V f (11) Drift velocity is φk ρ k V fk k =1 ρ k n Vdr , p = V pf − ∑ (12) the relative velocity is given by Manninen et al. (1996), V pf ρ p d p2 ( ρ p − ρ m ) = a 18µ f f drag ρp The drag function is given by Schiller and Naumann (1935) 308 (13) �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo f drag 1 + 0.15 Re0p.687 =  0.0183 Re p Re p ≤ 1000 (14) Re p > 1000 d is the diameter of the particles of secondary phase , a is the acceleration of secondary-phase. a = g − (V .∇)Vm (15) 2.2. Turbulence model In this study κ − ε turbulence model has been used (Launder 1972). κ − ε turbulence model contains two additional equations. These are turbulence kinetic energy ( κ ) and dissipation (ε) rate. µ  ∇( ρ mVmκ ) = ∇. t , m ∇κ  + Gk , m − ρ mε  σk  (16) µ  ε ∇.( ρ mVmε ) = ∇. t , m ∇ε  + (C1Gk , m − C2 ρ mε )  σε  κ  κ2    µ t ,m =  ρ m C µ ε   Gk , m = µt , m (∇Vm + (∇Vm )T ) (17) (18) (19) C µ = 0.09 , C1ε = 1.44 , C 2ε = 1.92 , σ κ = 1.0 , σ ε = 1.3 σ κ , σ ε are Prandtl constants. µt , m is eddy Gk,m is turbulence kinetic energy generation due to average velocity gradient. numbers for turbulence kinetic energy and dissipation rate, C1ε ve C 2ε are viscosity[Fluent 2006]. 2.3. Boundry conditions Uniform axial velocity, temperature have been specified at the tube inlet, turbulent intensity and hydraulic diameter [Fluent 2006] have been also specified. At the tube outlet section, the flow and temperature fields are assumed fully developed ((x/D) > 10). Pressure-outlet boundary condition has been implemented for the outlet section. Only half of the tube was modeled due to the symmetry. On the upper wall of the tube, the noslip boundary condition was imposed. The wall is subjected to a uniform heat flux. On the lower wall of the modeled domain, the axis boundary condition was applied. In the present analysis, the near wall treatment was based on enhanced wall functions [Fluent 2006]. 2.4. Numerical procedure The CFD code Fluent was used for solving this problem. Second order upwind scheme was employed to discretize equations. Pressure and velocity were coupled using Semi Implicit Method for Pressure Linked Equations [SIMPLE] (Patankar 1980). 2.5. Grid optimization 100 x 150, 115x160, 150x200, 200x250 in r-direction and in x-direction grids were tested. All gave similar values of velocity and temperature at the outlet. Therefore, 100×150 was accepted as the ideal grid size. 309 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Fig. 1. Grid figure used in the present simulation, axisymmetric from X-axis. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1. Validation of the present simulation The tube has a diameter of 0.0115 m and a length of 0.84 m. The fluid enters the tube with a constant inlet temperature Tin of 293 K and with uniform axial velocity Vin. The Reynolds number was varied from 10000 to 80000. In order to validate the computational model, the numerical results were compared with the theoretical data available for the conventional fluids. The Nusselt number computed with simulation for developed turbulent flow were compared with the Eq. 20 given by Petukhov, (Incropera 2000), Nu D = (f / 8) Re D Pr (20) 1.07 + 12.7(f / 8)1/ 2 (Pr 2 / 3 − 1) Fig. 2 shows the comparison of Nusselt numbers from Petukhov equation and computed values fro m present study for water. The maximum deviation and average deviation of computed Nusselt number from equation given by Petukhov is 9.9 and 6.4%, respectively. Nusselt number 700 600 present study 500 Petukhov equation 400 300 200 100 0 0 20000 40000 60000 Reynold number 80000 Fig. 2. Comparison between computed values of Nusselt numbers and Petukhov equation The friction factor values were compared with the Darcy friction factor given by Blasius [White] is presented as Eq. (21) f = 4C f = 4(0.0791Re −1 4 ) (21) Fig. 3 displays the comparison of Darcy friction factor from Blasius equation and computed values from this numerical study. An excellent agreement is observed and maximum deviation of computed values from Blasius equation is 2.8 % for friction factor over the range of Reynolds numbers studied. 310 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 0,04 present study Blasius equation f 0,03 0,02 0,01 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Reynolds number Fig.3. Comparison of Darcy friction factor by Blasius equation and computed values 3.2 Effect of nanoparticule volume concentration on the Nusselt number Heat transfer coefficient, h (W/m 2K) Fig. 4 shows heat transfer coefficient as a function of the Reynolds number for the different Al2O3 nanoparticle volume concentrations. It is seen from Fig 4. that heat transfer coefficient increases with increasing volume fraction. 70000 Su Al2O3 0, 5% Al2O3 1% Al2O3 2% Al2O3 3% Al2O3 4% 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Reynolds Number Fig. 4. Effect of volume fraction ration for Al2O3 nanofluids on heat transfer coefficient It is shown in Fig. 5 that the influence of Al2O3 nanoparticle volume concentration on the Nusselt number. Nusselt number increases with increasing volume fraction ratio. The increase in the Nusselt number is about 2.4 times with 4% volume fraction ratio over the water at Reynolds number of 70000. The particle volume fraction is one of the main factors affecting the Nusselt numbers of the nanofluids. 311 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 1050 Su Al2O3 0, 5% Al2O3 1% Al2O3 2% Al2O3 3% Al2O3 4% 950 Nusselt number 850 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Reynolds number Fig. 5. Effect of volume fraction ration for Al2O3 nanofluids on Nusselt number Heat transfer coefficient, h (W/m 2K) Fig. 6 shows heat transfer coefficient as a function of the Reynolds number for the different CuO nanoparticle volume concentrations. It is seen from Fig 6. that heat transfer coefficient increases with increasing volume fraction. 90000 Su CuO 0, 5% CuO 1% CuO 2% CuO 3% CuO 4% 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 20000 40000 60000 Reynolds number 80000 Fig.6. Effect of volume fraction ration for CuO nanofluids on heat transfer It is shown in Fig. 7 that the influence of CuO nanoparticle volume concentration on the Nusselt number. Nusselt number increases with increasing volume fraction ratio. The increase in the Nusselt number is about 3 times with 4% volume fraction ratio over the water at Reynolds number of 70000. The particle volume fraction is one of the main factors affecting the Nusselt numbers of the nanofluids. The heat transfer enhancement is achieved with CuO nanofluids more than Al2O3. It is because conductivity of CuO and heat transfer area for the same volume fraction ratio higher than Al2O3 nanoparticles. 312 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 1650 Su CuO 0, 5% CuO 1% CuO 2% CuO 3% CuO 4% Nusselt number 1450 1250 1050 850 650 450 250 50 0 20000 40000 60000 Reynolds number 80000 Fig. 7. Effect of volume fraction ration for CuO nanofluids on Nusselt number 3.3 Effect of nanoparticule volume concentration on the Friction factor The axial evolution of th local frictional coefficient is shown in Fig.8 and 9 for Al2O3 and CuO, respectively. As expected, the frictional coefficient decreases as the Reynolds number increases. It is shown from figures that the nanoparticles do not have a significant effect on its value. This observation is also confirmed by the result of Xuan and Li (2003). Fig. 8. Effect of Reynolds number on axial evolution of the local frictional coefficient for Al2O3 nanofluids 313 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Fig. 9. Effect of Reynolds number on axial evolution of the local frictional coefficient for CuO nanofluids Conclusion Turbulent heattransfer and friction factor characteristicsin a circulartube with nanofluids consisting of Al2 O3 and CuO of water were investigated numerically, by using two phase mixture model. Adding 4% nanaoparticules of Al2 O3 increasesthe Nusselt number more than 2 times and adding 4% nanaoparticules of CuO increases the Nusselt number more than 3 times. It does not have ant significant effect on the pressure drop penalty. Acknowledgements This work was supported by The Turkish Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK Project No. 105M292) and Ataturk University, Research Project Foundation (Project No. BAP2007/50). The Authors wish to thank to TUBITAK and Ataturk University. References Behzadmehr A., Saffar-Avval M. (2007). Galanis N. Prediction of turbulent forced convection of a nanofluid in a tuve with uniform heat flux using two phase approach, Int. J. Heat and Fluid Flow, 28 211-219. Fluent 6.3 user guide (2006). Fluent Inc., Lebanon, New Hampshire. Heris S. Z. , Etemad S.Gh. , Esfahany M. N. (2007). Experimental investigation of convective heat transfer of Al2O3/water nanofluid in circular tube, International Communications in Heat and Mass Transfer, 28 203–210. Hwang K. S. , Jang S. P. , Choi S. U.S. (2008). Flow and convective heat transfer characteristics of water-based Al2O3 nanofluids in fully developed laminar flow regime, International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, In Press, Corrected Proof, Incropera F.P. (2000). Isı ve Kütle Geçişinin Temelleri, Literatür Yayınları, Đstanbul. Launder, B.E., Spalding, D.B. (1972). Lectures in Mathematical Models of Turbulence. Academic Press, London, England. Manninen, M., Taivassalo, V., Kallio, S. (1996). On the Mixture Model for Multiphase Flow, VTT Publications 288. Technical Research Center of Finland. Miller, A., Gidaspow, D. (1992). Dense, vertical gas–solid flow in a pipe. AIChE J. 38 (11), 1801–1815. 314 �1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Nguyen C. T. , Roy G. Gauthier C. (2007). Heat transfer enhancement using Al2O3–water nanofluid for an electronic liquid cooling system, Nicolas Galanis Applied Thermal Engineering, 27 1501–1506, 2007. Patankar S.V. (1980). Numerical Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow, Hemisphere Publishing Corporation, New York, 1980. Schiller, L., Naumann, A.(1935). A drag coefficient correlation. Z. Ver.Deutsch. Ing. 77, 318–320. Wen D. , Ding Y. (2005). Formulation of nanofluids for natural convective heat transfer applications, International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow 26 (6) 855–864. White F.M. (1991).Viscous Fluid Flow, McGraw Hill, New York. Xuan Y. , Li Q. (2003). Investigation on convective heat transfer and flow features of nanofluids, Journal of Heat Transfer 125 151–155. 315 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 489 Title A name given to the resource Numerical Investigations of Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics of Water Based CuO and Al2O3 Nanofluids Using Two-Phase Mixture Model Author Author Sahin, Bayram Bölükbasi, Abdurahim Bedir, Özgür Çomakli, Ömer Abstract A summary of the resource. The development of high-performance thermal systems has increased interest in heat transfer enhancement techniques. The application of additives to heat transfer liquids is one of the noticeable effort to enhance heat transfer. The stable suspensions of nanoparticles (typically < 100 nm) in liquids are called nanofluids. In this study, heat transfer characteristics of two different nanofluids flowing through a circular tube under constant heat flux condition have been investigated numerically. Fluent 6.3 has been used this numerical study. Two-phase mixture model has been implemented two solve the problem. The comparison has been made between calculated and experimental results. The suspended nanosized particles enhance heat transfer and Nusselt numbers by comparing pure water at the same Reynolds numbers. Moreover, pressure drops for the nanofluids is approximately the same as that of pure water. The nanofluids containing CuO has showed bigger heat transfer enhancement than Al2O3 in all volume fraction rates. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/3928de5bf88f9e81ff9b077e7eca3390.pdf b2244636bb0c7d6ced1b65fd98efd3c6 PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Economic Variable Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study in Turkey Abdülhamit SUBAŞI Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering Sütcü Imam University, Kahramanmaraş, Turkey asubasi@ksu.edu.tr Erkan ĐLGÜN Department of Management International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina eilguen@ibu.edu.ba Abstract: Since financial and economic time series are nonlinear, neural networks can be efficiently used in the financial and economic time series forecasting. In this paper we used machine learning technique for data mining to evaluate the predictive relationships of economic variables of Turkey. Neural network models are examined for their capability to provide an efficient forecast of future values. For illustration and confirmation purposes, the proposed model is conducted on typical economic time series. Empirical results obtained show that the proposed neural-network-based nonlinear modeling technique is a very promising approach to economic time series forecasting. Keywords: ANN, Turkey, Economic time series forecasting. 1. Introduction Several factors impact financial markets, including political events, general economic circumstances, and even traders’ expectations. Due to the high degrees of irregularity and nonlinearity, financial and economic time series forecasting is regarded as a rather challenging task (Lai/Yu/Wang/Zhou, 2006; Yu/Wang/Lai, 2005; Yu//Lai, 2009). The non-stationary characteristic of financial and economic time series implies that the distribution of these time series is changing over time. As a result, for traditional linear models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), it is very complicated to capture the irregularity and nonlinearity hidden in financial and economic time series. Recently, artificial neural Networks (ANNs) were effectively used in financial and economic time series modeling and forecasting (Yu/Wang/Lai, 2005; Yu//Lai, 2009; Yu,Wang/Lai 2007; Cheng/Wanger/Lin 1996; Sharda/Patil 1994; Van/Robert 1997; Kaastra/Milton 1995; Francis/Lijuan 2001). Unlike traditional statistical models, neural networks are data-driven, non-parametric models. Therefore, neural networks are less vulnerable to the problem of model misspecification as compared to most of the parametric models. As a result, if compared to traditional statistical models, neural networks are more efficient in describing the dynamics of financial and economic time series Francis/Lijuan 2001; Zhang/Michael 1998; Chiang/Urban/Baildridge 1996). Actually, neural networks suggest a novel technique that does not necessitate a pre-specification during the modeling procedure because they independently learn the relationship inherent in the variables. Moreover neural networks suggest the flexibility of several architecture types, learning algorithms, and validation procedures (Enke/Thawornwong 2005). With the increasing globalization process and technological improvement in the information technology sector the movement of factors over the globe raises. Technology, capital stock and labor force is the factor that determines economic output, according to the literature on growth (Jones 1997). Without any doubt, there exist a considerable gap between developing and developed countries when qualified labor force, technology advance and capital stock as well is considered. Consequently the immense gap between the annual output levels of developed and developing countries are assigned to the differences in these factors. For developing countries it is much more exhaustive to meet the very expensive Research and Development activities. Researchers have long been concerned with the underlying data-generating process for key macroeconomic variables such as GNP, GDP and inflation. There have been various macroeconomic timeseries studies based on ANN models. In these models, one set of parameters governs the evolution of the dependent variable. In this work, we used a neural network approach for the prediction of gross national product (GNP) of TURKEY. Hence we will briefly review and discuss the economic structure of Turkey in the next section. In section three, we will briefly review and discuss the artificial neural network (ANN) model. The resulting data selection and model development, empirical results, and conclusion will then be presented, respectively. 212 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 2. Economic Development of Turkey The flows of factors of production over the globe increases with the ongoing globalization process and additional improvements of the information technology. Technology, capital stock and labor force is the factor that determines Economic output according to the literature on growth. (Jones 1997) Without any doubt, there exist a considerable gap between developing and developed countries when qualified labor force, advanced technological utilities and capital stock as well is considered. It can be concluded that the immense gap between the annual output levels of developed and developing countries are assigned to the differences in these factors. An increased allowance of less developed countries to the liberalization policies of the early 80s was an important matter for policy makers to integrate their own economy in the world. A rough division of the Turkish economic history can be seen from the perspective of macroeconomic reorientation from the import-led industrialization to trade liberalization and export oriented growth strategy dominated up to the 1980s. According to various influential factors in the history Turkey had put many barriers in front of international trade and investment and devoted herself to state-controlled enterprises before 1980s. Growth was based for a long-term on import strategy. After suffered economic disruptions the National Committee of the State Planning Unit has been established as a constitutional institution. With the five-year plans between 1963 - 1980 developing plans were that both the State as well as from the private sector constructive impulses of the Turkish economy should be accompanied (Mixed Economy). In order to control the high inflation, rising unemployment numbers, political violence the Government announced on 24.01.1980, with the support of international financial and economic organizations, the start of the necessary fundamental economical, legal and institutional change to strengthening the integration of Turkey into the global economy. (Ekinci 1990, Kepenek/Yentürk 1997, Metin-Ozcan/Voyoda/Yeldan 2001; Alici/Ucal 2003) In the 80s began the liberalization of trade and financial deregulation, where the control of capital flows repealed and the Turkish currency from this time was fully convertible. In 1996 the customs union with the European Union continued. With the more integration Turkey’s economy to the global capital and financial markets their serious consequences was felt in Turkey during the crisis in 1999. Following the two crises in 1991 and 1994 the macroeconomic environment, forced the government towards the end of 1999 to implement a stabilization program with the intention to reduce the rate of inflation, the real interest rate and the debt stock of Turkey. As a result of the 1994 crisis, the more expensive imported goods resulting from the nominal depreciation and the high short-term interest rates decreased the industrial production having an impact on the economic output. (Celasun 1994; Celasun/Denizer/He 1999) Hence the economic performance broke again with the crisis in 1991 and 1994. Due to a dispute between the then Prime Minister Ecevit and President Sezer in February 2001 a new crisis sparked in Turkey. The main challenge for the government was the restore of macroeconomic balance subject to reduce inflation and sustained economic growth. With the launch of the new economic stabilization program after the 2001 crisis the positive trend continues. 2002 and 2003 were the years of economic recovery from the crisis of 2001. So far Turkey lacks low confidence, weak governance and informal sector in the past that prevented sustainable economic growth (OECD, Policy Brief: Economic Survey of Turkey 2004, October) with the retrieval of economic stability the focus was set on sustainable economic growth. After the short-lived coalition governments and coalition governments a single party government came to power with the 2004 elections. Political stability was obtained and provided huge external support as well as positive affects of the EU reforms economic stability has been further reinforced Turkey is still in comparison to most existing EU members very weak, but is also dynamic. Since 2002 Turkey has had a robust economic growth. Investments (both private and public), industrial production as well as degree of capacity utilization have been increased during the time period between 2001-2007 as well. By closer contemplation there is a relationship between industrial production and economic growth. Foreign Direct investments can be quoted as another determinant that affected economic growth. (Alici/Ucal 2003) FDI plays a serious role in the development of closing the gap with industrialized nations (catch up) and the alignment with EU standards (convergence). Overall after the first crisis in Turkey there was a shift from the mainly public economy to the private sector's which put focus on effort to increase the efficiency in order to remain global competitive. 3. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model The multilayer perceptron network is the most commonly used neural network in economic and financial time series modeling. In general, the network represents the way the human brain processes input sensory data, received as input neurons, into recognition as an output neuron. The interconnected neurons generate expectations or forecasts which lead to reactions and decisions in financial data. Mainly, actions come from forecasts based on the parallel processing of interconnected neurons (McNelis 2005). The input variables are fed into a layer of units making up the input layer for each training sample. The weighted outputs of these 213 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo units are then fed to a hidden layer. The weight outputs of the hidden layer are input to units making up the output layer which issues the network’s prediction for a given set of samples. Back propagation is the most popular neural network algorithm. It is a method for assigning responsibility for mismatches to each of the processing elements in the network by propagating the gradient of the activation function back through the network to each hidden layer down to the first hidden layer. The weights are then modified so as to minimize the mean squared error between the network’s prediction and the actual target (Enke/Thawornwong 2005). 4. Results and Discussion The main objective of this study was to investigate the applicability of the ANN technique in the prediction of GNP time series. The selection of the input variables is a modeling decision that can significantly influence the model performance. In the neural network situation, the information gain data mining analysis was used to find good subsets of the full set of the first-period input variables. Thus, overall balance, foreign direct investment, gross fixed investment, labor force and gross national product (GNP) variables were consistently used as the input variables for training the neural networks throughout the modeling phase. The values of the input variables were first preprocessed by normalizing them to decrease the effect of magnitude between the inputs and thus increase the effectiveness of the learning algorithm. It is well known that most trading practices implemented by financial analysts rely on precise prediction of the financial instruments. After many experiments with various numbers of hidden layer neurons, learning algorithms, and learning rates, the feedforward neural network employing 5 neurons in the input-layer, 10 neurons in the hidden layer, 0.05 learning rate, and a gradient descent back propagation training algorithm was found to be the best network architecture based on the lowest average root-mean squared error. ANN training is not firm since the training process may depend on the choice of a random start. Training is also computationally expensive in terms of the training times used to determine the appropriate network structure. The degree of success, therefore, may fluctuate from one training pass to another. The focus of this section of the paper was to examine and discuss the results obtained from the ANN model. In this model, five basic economic variables were presented in the network as input parameters to determine the relationship between GNP properties and parameter. In order to develop an ANN model, the input parameters were also individually excluded from the input parameters. As previously mentioned, developed ANN models were tested by data sets from the State Planning Organization, which were not employed in the training stage. To evaluate how accurate the result of the developed ANN model is, the coefficient of correlation (R2) was used as statistical verification tools. Estimated values were graphically compared with the actual values as in Figure1. As can be seen, the ANN models were found to be able to learn the relationship between the input parameters overall balance, foreign direct investment, gross fixed investment, laborforce and gross national product (GNP). Figure 2 gives the statistical performance of the ANN model. It appears that there is a relatively good agreement between the ANN predictions and the actual data. This can be interpreted from the R2 value 0.976. R2 value of the model reflects the overall error performance of the model. One can clearly see that ANN model gives good correlation between the estimated and real GNP values. Consequently, when the results in figures are evaluated, it can be concluded that ANN models can be used for the prediction of GNP. The predictive performance of the developed model was estimated using the untouched out-of-sample (testing) data. This is due to the fact that the superior in sample performance does not always guarantee the validity of the forecasting accuracy. One possible approach for evaluating the forecasting performance is to investigate whether traditional error measure such as correlation coefficient (R2) between the actual out-of sample returns and their predicted values are small or highly correlate, respectively. Hence, the prediction of the forecasting model must be adjusted for unbiased performance comparisons. The empirical results show that ANN can accurately estimate GNP because of the high correlation (R2) relationship. This is due to the fact that the correlation (R2) of these models indicates higher positive relationship between the actual and predicted values of GNP. The findings strongly support the non-linearity relationship between the past economic variables. 5. Conclusions In this study we investigate the predictive power of economic variables by using ANN as machine learning technique for data mining. The study has focused on input data, forecasting methodology and measures used for performance evaluation. This approach seems suitable in selecting the variables when the usefulness of the data is unknown, especially when nonlinearity exists in the economic variables as found in this study. The observation is that neural networks model is suitable for GNP forecasting. ANN gives better results as trading systems and higher forecasting accuracy. In conclusion, both researchers and practitioners have studied financial and economic time series prediction for many years. Many studies conclude that some economic variables can be predicted by using 214 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo ANN. To this end, our finding suggests that economic forecasting is always and will remain difficult since such data are greatly influenced by economical, financial, political, international, and even natural events. Obviously, this study covers only fundamental available information, while the technical analysis approach remains intact. References Alici, A. A./Ucal, M. S.(2003): Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Output Growth of Turkey: Causality Analysis, Paper to be Presented at the European Trade Study Group, Fifth Annual Conference, 11-13 September 2003, Madrid Celasun, O./Denizer, C./He, D.(1999): Capital Flows, Macroeconomic Management, and the Financial System: The Turkish Case, 1987-1997, World Bank Working Paper 2141 Celasun, M. (1994): Trade and Industrialization in Turkey: Initial Conditions, Policy and Performance in the 1980s in Hellenier, G. K. (Ed.) Trade Policy and Industrialization in Turbulent Times, Routledge Cheng W., Wanger, L., Lin, C. H. (1996). Forecasting the 30-year US treasury bond with a system of neural networks. Journal of Computational Intelligence in Finance; 4:10–6. Chiang WC, Urban TL, Baildridge G. (1996). A neural network approach to mutual fund net asset value forecasting. Omega; 24(2):205–15. Ekinci, N. (1990): Macroeconomic Developments in Turkey: 1980-1988, METU Studies in Development, 17 (1-2), pp. 73114 Enke, D., Thawornwong, S. (2005). The use of data mining and neural Networks for forecasting stock market returns, Expert Systems with Applications 29, 927–940. Francis E.H. Tay, Lijuan Cao. (2001). Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting, Omega 29, 309–317. Jones, C. I. (1997): Introduction to Economic Growth, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., New York Kaastra, I., Milton SB. (1995). Forecasting futures trading volume using neural networks. The Journal of Futures Markets; 15(8):853–970. Kepenek, Y./Yentürk, N (1997): Türkiye Ekonomisi, Remzi Kitapevi Lai, K.K., Yu, L., Wang, S. Y., Zhou, C. X. (2006). Neural-network-based metamodeling for financial time series forecasting, in: Proceedings of the 9th Joint Conference on Information Sciences, JCIS 2006, Atlantis Press, Paris, 172–175. McNelis, P. D.(2005). Neural Networks in Finance: Gaining Predictive Edge in the Market, Elsevier Academic Press, 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA01803, USA. Metin-Ozcan, K./Voyoda, E./Yeldan, E. (2001): Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy: Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969 – 1998, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 22 (1), pp. 219-253 Sharda R, Patil RB. (1994). A connectionist approach to time series prediction: an empirical test. In: Trippi, RR, Turban, E, (Eds.), Neural Networks in Finance and Investing, Chicago: Probus Publishing Co., 451–64. Van E, Robert J. (1997). The application of neural networks in the forecasting of share prices. Haymarket, VA, USA: Finance & Technology Publishing. Yu, L.,Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2009). A neural-network-based nonlinear metamodeling approach to financial time series forecasting, Applied Soft Computing 9, 563–574. Yu, L., Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2007). Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting With Artificial Neural Networks, Springer, New York. Yu, L., Wang, S. Y., Lai, K. K. (2005). A novel nonlinear ensemble forecasting model incorporating GLAR and ANN for foreign exchange rates, Computers & Operations Research 32 (10), 2523–2541. Zhang GQ, Michael YH. (1998). Neural network forecasting of the British Pound=US Dollar exchange rate. Omega; 26(4):495–506. 215 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 400 Actual Estimated 350 GNP 300 250 200 150 1992 1995 1998 Years 2001 2004 2006 Figure 1. Comparison of actual values with the results obtained from the ANN model Figure 2. Performance of ANN model for testing dataset. 216 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 203 Title A name given to the resource Economic Variable Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Network: A Case Study in Turkey Author Author SUBASI, Abdülhamit iLGÜN, Erkan Abstract A summary of the resource. Since financial and economic time series are nonlinear, neural networks can be efficiently used in the financial and economic time series forecasting. In this paper we used machine learning technique for data mining to evaluate the predictive relationships of economic variables of Turkey. Neural network models are examined for their capability to provide an efficient forecast of future values. For illustration and confirmation purposes, the proposed model is conducted on typical economic time series. Empirical results obtained show that the proposed neural-network-based nonlinear modeling technique is a very promising approach to economic time series forecasting. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6dfcea516adff4c3fcd2b02b3cb63e27.pdf 06fcd6c1874bd84564ed9457eb1e615c PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Sustainable Tourism Development an Opportunity for Bosnia and Herzegovina? Edin SMAJIĆ Teaching Assistant Faculty of Economics, Department of Management International Burch University, Bosnia and Herzegovina esmajic@ibu.edu.ba Abstract: Bosnia and Herzegovina is endowed with many resources such as geographical position, climate, nature and above all its people. Its diversity is a magnet for millions of potential travelers and visitors. Neither its government nor its people realize their huge potential and possible benefits that tourism can bring about helping them not only to prosper economically but also reconcile their differences. Tourism is playing more and more important role in national and local economies. There is no evidence that this will trend will decline. Bosnian climate, geographic position, cultural and historic monuments and before all the composition of its people are key attraction for visitors. Visitors will contribute significantly to the local and national economy and the economic multiplier effect of this spend, in turn, supports employment and secondary tourist facilities. Similarly, in the determination of future proposals that could impact on the setting, character and appearance of its potentials, special care is needed by planners and promoters to assess its potential, spread the awareness and unleash it to the Globe so that the benefits can be harvested. Bosnia can learn from its neighbors who are well known tourism leaders. There is a huge room for regional cooperation and collaboration. Nonetheless, Bosnia and Herzegovina has its competitive edge in its diversity that none of the neighbors can possibly acquire in the foreseeable future. Key to the sustainable approach of tourism and the cultural heritage is the preparation of appropriate master plan that takes into account the identified overall effects in order to guide the course of development in a manner that protects those very resources that attract visitors and that does not cause in the short, medium and long term any reduction in their character or appearance. If managed properly tourism can bring about positive change that its people await for long time. Keywords: Tourism; Central and Eastern Europe; management, development, sustainability, tourism, tourist, environmental impact; character and appearance; master plan; strategies; visitor, tourist; management plans 1. Introduction In the limited number of analyses undertaken on tourism development and post-socialist processes of restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), most attention has been paid to the more advanced societies of Central Europe. By contrast, Europe's less developed and relatively unstable south-eastern corner, where tourism development issues may take on a different complexion, has been relatively neglected. Within this context, tourism's role in post-socialist restructuring in Central and Eastern Europe is examined, reflecting on issues of mass tourism and niche segregation. Rural tourism is examined as a vehicle for sustainable development in South-eastern Europe, and some of the paradoxes facing issues of sustainability in tourism development are examined in relation to recent development processes. With a dynamic mix of mass and niche markets to target, the potential of rural tourism development in South-eastern Europe continues to be constrained by regional instability. 114 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 2. Tourism – Its Economic Opportunities 2.1. Background Tourism is only part of the whole idea of sustainable development. Tourism, as it relates to sustainable development, is tourism which is developed so that the nature, scale, location, and manner of development is appropriate and sustainable over time, and where the environment's ability to support other activities and processes is not impaired, since tourism cannot be isolated from other resource use activities. Sustainable tourism involves a challenge to develop quality tourism products without adversely affecting the natural and cultural environment that maintains and nurtures them. At the heart of sustainable tourism is a set of implicit values related to striving to integrate economic, social and cultural goals (Wight, 1993). According to World Tourism Organization (WTO) tourism is said to be the largest and fastest growing industry in the world. Increased leisure time, improved access and infrastructure, increasing disposable incomes and significant reductions in the cost of air travel, despite the current oil price increases, all contribute to huge increases in international travel. On the other hand, changes such as the erosion of international borders and the accessibility of knowledge through increasing use of the internet all assist in the worldwide movement towards a “global village”. Interestingly, the World Tourism Organization predicts that Bosnia and Herzegovina is likely to see one of the greatest increases, worldwide, in tourism up to 2020. The well managed and regulated development of tourism can be a catalyst of positive change. An understanding of different lives, places and cultures erodes the falsely held barriers of misunderstanding about foreign places. The economic multiplier effect means that very significant economic benefits can flow into local and national economies and these benefits can spread way beyond the principle tourist attractions. This is why tourism is characterized as invisible export. However, unplanned and poorly regulated tourism developments can devalue or even destroy the very potential that otherwise compels people to visit new and special places. 2.2. The International & National Context An insight into the current international and national trends in tourism is useful for placing the development of BiH tourism in context. In 2007, in terms of visitor numbers, Trafalgar Square in London was Europe’s top tourist attraction with some 15 million visitors, followed by Notre Dame Cathedral in France with 12 million visitors. Significantly, in worldwide terms, out of the top 50 tourist attractions on the planet, 20 are based on a nation’s cultural heritage and only 9 on a commercial theme park such as Euro Disney. The World Tourist Organization estimated that in 2007 there were 898 billion tourist arrivals. This is expected to increase to 1.6 billion by 2020. Worldwide, tourism brings with it and spends of US$ 2 billion per day in receipts. Tourism accounts for 35 % of the world’s export of services. Significantly it is now estimated that there are 1.4 billion internet users in the world. So there can be little doubt of the worldwide profile of tourism and, most importantly, the pivotal role played by the built and cultural heritage in attracting visitors. 2.3. Estimating The Economic Impacts of Tourism If refer to the definition of tourism we will then see that it is a network of services offered to tourists, and the infrastructure needed to support it, the sector involves a wide range of players including private sector tourism businesses, governmental and intergovernmental organizations, development and conservation NGO networks, consumers, development intermediaries and host communities.1 This is simply implies that no single organization runs tourism. This activity takes more than one party, institution or organization. It involves many different sectors. Economists will often speak of the numbers of jobs that are related to tourism, the amount of “spend” in a local and national economy and, most importantly, the “multiplier effect” of tourist derived income. So as a consequence, tourism can often be held in high regard because it can be seen as a one-way income stream, causing national and local governments to be favorably disposed to promote and regulate tourist facilities at all costs. Estimating the economic costs and benefits of tourism is a complex mathematical exercise and demands answers to many questions. A full economic impact of the promotion of Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to be carried out by trained experts but a brief overview of the economic benefit process is helpful in understanding broader benefits that can ensue. 1 www.world-tour.org 115 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Any systematic study of the economic impact of the tourism induced by the development of tourism in Bosnia and Herzegovina needs firstly to set out the action(s) that are going to bring about tourism growth. Actions will include the development of visitor attractions, marketing, investment levels and the management of the GTA (Government Tourism Association). 3. The Environmental Impacts of Tourism Responsible tourism is the key to ensuring that the benefits that are so apparent from tourism growth are planned, managed, mitigated and developed in tune with the capacity of the environment to absorb the increased pressures that will inevitably arise. This section of my paper examines the key environmental impacts of tourism and the adverse consequences that could arise if the proper development and management of major tourism facilities is not correctly seen as a key overarching objective 3.1. The Nature of the Problem The quality of the built and natural environment is essential in order to provide for quality tourism. The direct impacts caused by the erosion and subsequent damage of the historic fabric, the marring of a historic landscape setting; the unwelcome visual impacts of litter, car parking and access; the need for fresh water, toilet facilities and waste water treatment; the building of poorly designed and planned commercial premises and the proliferation of outdoor advertising as local businesses wish to “cash in” on a new phenomena and the building of unrelated tourist facilities targeted at a new captive market can all, singularly and collectively, gradually destroy the very environmental and heritage resources on which they depend. There is little doubt that unplanned or poorly managed tourism can give rise to pollution, a fact particularly critical in an otherwise unspoilt rural environment. Air quality deterioration from vehicles, noise, littering, sewage, oil and chemical releases can all impact on the natural environment and the enjoyment of their own environment by a host community. More tangible will be new buildings where design qualities play a subordinate role to the wish for local business to construct cheaply and quickly. And we must not loose sight of the effects tourism has on wildlife and flora especially where protected or vulnerable species may experience disturbance or loss of habitat because of human traffic, emissions, sewage run-off or the insatiable need for more concrete and tarmac to cater for more visitors. An inevitable consequence of any successful tourism development is the attendant demands placed on local infrastructure. Visitors to a regionally, nationally or internationally recognized destination will need accommodation, they will need feeding and they will need transportation facilities to gain access. Hence, unplanned, land use conflicts would arise as development pressures for hotels, car parking and catering establishments, if not property regulated, could undermine many of the unique assets offered by a sensitive place, especially once that saturation point is reached. Equally it must be recognized that tourism can be a very seasonal phenomena and if a town or an area becomes too dependent on tourism, its employment structure can be weakened. Mindful that many jobs in the tourism sector tend to be lower paid, lower skilled, part time and seasonal anyway, there can often be an over reliance on transient migratory labor with no direct benefit to a local economy. This is a key consideration when planning for a tourism development. There is a balance to be struck between the environmental impact and the local economic benefits. 3.2. The Environmental Impact Assessment of A Tourism Development Before being able to develop a master plan for the sustainable establishment of a major tourism destination, it is important to understand the environmental impacts that such a project would have. Indeed within the European Union, the principles of environmental impact assessment (EIA) have been incorporated into national legislation since the implementation of the first European Directive 85/337/EEC. Directive 97/11/EC amended the earlier provisions by extending the extent of developments that were caught by the requirement for EIA and made changes to EIA procedures. Further changes took place by virtue of Article 3 of Directive 2003/35/EC which aligns EIA more closely with public participation provided by the Arhus Convention. In accordance with the European Union Directives on EIA, “tourism” falls within a schedule II category of development. That is to say, EIA is required if a tourism development exceeds a specified threshold. If so, it is concluded that the development is likely to have significant effects on the environment. Against this statutory background it is perhaps helpful to have regard to current thinking within the European Union on EIA in order to develop a strategy for the sustainable tourism development. 116 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Every development will trigger change which has an impact on the environment but it is the case with every human activity. Bosnia and Herzegovina is endowed with beautiful nature and the environmental aspect should be carefully studied. Tourism should be used to justify conservation by paying its contribution to the environment, which can be in form of: Creating an audience for historical and archeological attractions which can provide funds for its conservation. (This is why the lengthy explanation of the Roman and Ottoman period in the area). Protection of the forested areas which are now vast but endangered with the illegal logging. Transportation system should be redeveloped and reconsidered. Introduction of environmentally adjusted domestic products. (leather, rock, marble, wood and other materials are abundant in the area and not properly used) Proper zoning, planning and land use should be designed to accommodate the needs of tourists but also to preserve the nature and its landscape. Proper facility planning should follow the following guidelines: Respect the spirit of the places! The development should blend into the environment and local culture. Restore old buildings but respect their original use. Bosnia used to have hundreds of small hans (Inns) and coffee shops that should be restored now and preserved. 4. A Sustainability and Socio Cultural Effects 4.1. Sustainability Based on the general definition for sustainable development, sustainable tourism has been perceived as simultaneously encompassing the environmental, economic and socio-cultural aspects in the long-term planning of the sector development. In order to achieve such balanced development integrating and respecting basic principles such as the precautionary principle, intra- and inter-generation equity, and the responsibility for the preservation of the environment and natural resources for future generations is necessary.1 Sustainable Tourism Products Dialogue between stakeholders in both private and public sector should lead to the development of sustainable tourism products across various sectors of the travel and tourism industry. This is why the proposal for the small hotels, inns, Hans and B&B joints instead of big hotels to start with. Similarly, domestic production should be encouraged in order to avoid transportation but also to contribute to the sustainability. This initiative should lead to introduction other types of tourism such as agro-tourism, village tourism, and farm tourism. At this juncture it is worth drawing together the numerous strands identified earlier in this paper. Indeed I have shown that tourism is a growing phenomenon and in particular Bosnia and Herzegovina is expected by the World Tourist Organization to be one of the world’s fastest growing tourist destinations up to 2020. Additionally there can be no doubt that tourism brings with it socio-economic benefits and these benefits have direct and indirect effects, illustrated by the economic multiplier effect. 4.2. The Underlying Principles of A Sustainable Approach to Tourism 4.2.1. Natural Heritage Considerations To address the natural heritage, development must be compatible with the landscape setting of the site; it must maintain its essential ecological processes and recognize the biological diversity and unique biological resources of the park. Visitor management is essential to deflect pressures from key sensitive locations while ensuring “honey pots” attract visitors to important but less fragile places. The design, planning, development and operation of facilities should incorporate the principles of sustainability including micro-renewable energy, heat insulation and the use of recycled materials wherever possible. Car parking areas should be designed to incorporate sustainable urban drainage facilities that will ensure water retention and dispersal to avoid run off in periods of heavy rain. Special consideration requires to be given to waste management from toilet facilities and litter disposal. Particular care is required in the consideration of development proposals not only within the designated area of the park but out with the park boundaries but nevertheless within its setting. Views that have been unchanged for centuries, and which contribute to the setting and character of the touristic landscape, would be destroyed by the unsympathetic sitting of buildings, roads, power lines, and telecommunications apparatus even if they have nothing to do with the tourism’s development. A special role 1 European Tourism Forum 2002: “Agenda 21 – Sustainability in the European Tourism Sector”, discussion document, Brussels 10 December 2002. 117 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo needs to be played by the local planning authority to channel development to sensitive locations that do not affect the tourism development. 4.2.2. Built Heritage Considerations State regulatory systems impose restrictions on development that could affect the setting, character and appearance of the cultural heritage. In Scotland, for example, the central government imposes very strict controls on work that affects the 5 600 or so scheduled ancient monuments out of the 70 000 or so recorded archaeological sites, under the Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Areas Act 1979. Scheduled monument consent is needed for any works that have the effect of demolishing, destroying, damaging, removing, repairing, altering, adding to, flooding or covering up a monument. All newly discovered ancient objects in Scotland belong to the Crown. Legal protection does not always secure the future proper preservation of an ancient monument and it is thus essential to develop a management plan and to carry out regular maintenance to prevent progressive deterioration and decay. In Bosnia the Commission to Preserve National Monuments, as it is cold should not be seen as an impediment to any development. Its role should be revised and its responsibility should assume greater authority in order to expedite development of sites that will attract tourists. 4.2.3. Socio-Cultural Effects In developing Bosnia into successful tourism product and destination socio-cultural effects on the destination and on the way of life of its inhabitants should be considered. As tourism competes for space, resentment to tourists might be evident. Secondly, the impact visitors make on the people’s values and local way of life. The number of tourists from Turkey is increasing steadily every year and there ought to be some development. People usually resist development and change. The influence of the tourists on the arts, music, dance, painting, sculpture, architecture, handicrafts and other art should be assessed. The medieval city is considerably ruined and only during the festive days thousands of people visit it without any control. Some new elements are also introduced. The vendors selling goods on the streets often overshadow cultural performance with their own music boxes which play music that is not at all suitable for the occasion. Otherwise, the mentioned impacts should have positive effects: - The number of tourists boosts local economy, create wealth, generate income and propel new facilities and the improvements and preservation of the existing ones. - As far as the way of life is concerned, tourism provides for two way flows of information and cultural exchange since it provides contacts and encounters that result in exchange of goods, services and ideas. - Finally, tourism is stimulates local arts, handicrafts and souvenirs. 5. Main Issues One of the main issues is to convince the Bosnian authorities of the country that Bosnia has great tourism potential and as such it should be explored and exploited. Why tourism? There are many reasons why to develop Bosnia and Herzegovina into a leading tourist attraction in the region. Tourism is now one of the world’s largest industries and one of its fastest growing economic sectors. While tourism can build understanding, poorly managed tourism can ruin destinations. Yet if handled well, tourism provides an incentive to build and to preserve the best the destination has to offer: religious sites and buildings, unbeatable nature, historic districts, museums, great scenery and cultural identity reflected in its places and people. If we look at the definition of tourism we will then see that it is a network of services offered to tourists, and the infrastructure needed to support it, the sector involves a wide range of players including private sector tourism businesses, governmental and intergovernmental organizations, development and conservation NGO networks, consumers, development intermediaries and host communities.1 This is simply implies that no single organization runs tourism. This activity takes more than one party, institution or organization. It involves many different sectors. 1 www.wourld-tour.org 118 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo 5.1. Lack of Superstructure The whole country struggles with only two five star hotels and most of it 4 and 3 stars usually run full house in the season. Official occupancy rate is ridiculous due to the gray economy. Visitors are longing for maps printed material and proper tourist information centers. 5.2. Lack of Infrastructure Bosnia and Herzegovina was once important junction since it has geostrategic location. Its international airport in Sarajevo carried only 900000 passengers in 2007. Many of the inbound flights are expensive. Its national carrier Air-Bosna is struggling with competition but also with their own management. Hopefully the situation will improve with their new partner Turkish Airlines. The country is not connected with highways and even the motorways are having the reputation of the worst in the Central Europe. The development in this direction is a must for tourism to flourish. Railways and waterways are even worse and we all know that tourism is all about moving people from a destination to a destination. 5.3. Lack of Design and Signage There is virtually no signage in any language that would lead a potential tourist or traveler to come and visit these small but beautiful lost treasuries in the heart of Europe. Tourists in Bosnia and Herzegovina have problems getting their directions. New proper design and signage should be carefully designed and applied. 5.4. Lack of Awareness of The Tourist Destination As already stated many take it as a sacred or holy place to visit but few think of it as tourist destination. In this sense, both the visitors but also the host people should be trained and education for their respective role and the interaction not only the interaction with one another but the interaction with the environment too. This should be incorporated in the overall awareness program. 6. Practical Steps Forward For any tourism to develop all three levels of stakeholders1 should be working together. The three levels are: 1. GOVERNMENT which should take place of policy and planning and give a general framework for cooperation. Governments at all levels, and there are many in Bosnia, should give a kick start for the religious tourism to take off. That is to say that they should consider it as national treasury on which the whole country should capitalize. 2. Second level includes the organizations concerned with tourism development and operations that are in the front line i.e. hotels, other accommodation facilities, catering services, cultural, historic and scenic attractions, and transportations services. 3. The third level includes the whole range of ANCILLARY SUPPORT SERVICES that are both public and private such as: police, post office, customs and immigration, the media, the retail trade, banks, churches, universities and colleges, trade unions… Various committees, councils, working groups, task forces representing public and private sector should play coordinating and consultative role. Government Government tourism administration (GTA2) chiefly depends on the administrative composition of the country. Unfortunately, Bosnia and Herzegovina has many levels of administration and many governments from local to cantonal to the entity and finally the on the level of the whole country herein referred as BiH level. Every municipality has its own tourist association. Similarly, every canton has tourist association. Both entities have their own tourist association and unfortunately it stops there. On the BiH there is no institution that handles tourism and plays coordinating role for the whole country. Ministry of Foreign Trade is responsible for tourism but plays extremely passive role due to several reasons. The major reason is that the tourism has been 1 2 Doswell, R., 1997, Tourism, How effective management makes the difference, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann, p. 7 Ibid. p. 86. 119 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo very much politicized and it is used in the political campaign aggressively. However, the said ministry does not have a person responsible for the sector let alone the profile of that person nor is there a law on tourism on the BiH level. Secondly, there was no strategy for the development of the country and thus there is no strategy for tourism. Thirdly, as a result of the two, tourism is given a passive support without any funds. Bih Level Government Having in mind this, the situation down the ladder is rather chaotic. Since there is no strategy on the highest level, no laws pertaining to tourism and no coordinating body all the governmental instances are left to themselves to create their own strategies. This resulted in many strategies and many overlapping projects where energy and funds are lost. Only lately governments at various levels started cooperating and this is a good sign but far from satisfactory outcomes. Both entities now have ministries for tourism but they respectively lack political independence, appropriate skills, and clarity of objectives, intergovernmental cooperation and coordination. In addition, their jobs are poorly defined and this leads to confusion and duplication. It is clear that it is a high time for Bosnia and Herzegovina to set up an administrative body that will be in charge of tourism on the BiH level. The long debated law on tourism should provide for this. This body can be either in form of full ministry, part of the ministry or even semi government body. Its function should be: - Planning and control o Product research and planning o human resource planning and training o licensing and supervision - Marketing o Representing the whole country as tourist destination o Market research o Production of tourism literature o Advertising - Financial o Advising business and potential investors o Directing and approving governmental aid programs for tourist projects - Coordinating o Linking with trade and professional bodies, government and regional or local tourist organizations o Undertaking coordinated marketing activities with private tourist enterprises The laws should provide for the overarching principles that will clearly define the duties and responsibilities of all the stakeholders in tourism. Only then the government authority will be able to provide for the common strategy and development plan where the religious tourism will be included and promoted. Local Government Local government should play important role in developing tourism. They should: - Assess the number and the distribution of tourists in the area - Estimate future changes and its implications - Identify growth opportunities - Assess the impact of tourism on employment and income in the area, - Identify the need for conservation They should also take care of the following: - Provision of leisure facilities for tourists (so far there is none) - Planning - Parking for coaches and cars - Production of statistics - Marketing of the whole area - Preservation of historic buildings - Public health In fact, the local government should be a catalyst from the region campaigning and fighting for before the BIH government to draw attention of its potentials. They should do the same campaign before the cantonal government and its tourist association. 7. Summary and Conclusions 120 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Enhanced understanding of a country through international tourism can have significant benefits at the macro-economic level. By complimenting economic development and “showcasing” a country, tourism is a tool that helps overcome ill-conceived international barriers to economic development. A good example may be Northern Ireland where conflicts in 70s and 80s deterred many visitors. The recent peace settlement in Northern Ireland has unleashed countless tourist visits north and south of the border. In turn barriers to trade caused by misunderstanding and an absence of true knowledge are erased, fuelling a boom based upon new found tourism opportunities. Twenty years ago who would ever have seen Belfast as a tourist destination? Tourism is one of the world’s largest industries and the largest service sector. It is bigger than cars, agriculture or electronics and 52 % of tourism expenditure takes place in Europe, compared with 21 % in the Americas. Tourism is growing fastest in emerging markets such as Bosnia-Herzegovina which is expected by the UN’s World Tourist Organization to be one of the fastest growing tourist sectors in the world by 2020. The vast majority of tourism jobs are found in small and medium sized firms; new income is generated; new jobs are formed; entrepreneurship is fostered and social conditions are enhanced. Local companies can be supported; improvements flow to local utilities and services; improved infrastructure is provided; local living standards are raised and urban and rural regeneration follows. The best indicator that Bosnia and Herzegovina can develop its tourism and sustain it is the fact that most of the visitors love the country and most of them would come back. If we listen to them carefully, respond to their needs and wishes considering our resources and capacities we can start harvesting the benefits. The reinvestment of those benefits can bring about the positive change but also secure sustainability o tourism on long run. References Aronson, L., 2000, The Development of Sustainable Tourism, London, Continuum. Boniface, P. and Fowler, PJ. 1993, Heritage and Tourism in Global Village, London, Routhledge. Doswell, R., 1997, Tourism, How effective management makes the difference, Oxford, Butterworth-Heinemann. Fsadni, C. and Selwyn, T. (eds), 1997, Sustainable Tourism in Mediterranean Islands and Small Cities, University of Malta, MED-CAMPUS. Holloway, J. Christopher, (6th ed.), The Business of Tourism, Harlow, Financial Times, Prentice Hall. Mowforth, M. and Munt, I. 1998 Tourism and Sustainability, London, Routhledge. Nash, D., 1996, Anthropology of Tourism, Oxford, Pergamon. Richards, G. (ed), 1996, Cultural Tourism in Europe, Wallingford, CAB International. United Nations World Tourism Organization: A practical guide to destination management, 2007 United Nations World Tourism Organization: Tourism enriches USAID: Cultural Tourism in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Preliminary Findings 2006 www.unwto.org Yale, P., 1995, The Business of Tour Operations, Harlow, Pearson Education Limited. 121 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 139 Title A name given to the resource Sustainable Tourism Development an Opportunity for Bosnia and Herzegovina? Author Author SMAJIĆ, Edin Abstract A summary of the resource. Bosnia and Herzegovina is endowed with many resources such as geographical position, climate, nature and above all its people. Its diversity is a magnet for millions of potential travelers and visitors. Neither its government nor its people realize their huge potential and possible benefits that tourism can bring about helping them not only to prosper economically but also reconcile their differences. Tourism is playing more and more important role in national and local economies. There is no evidence that this will trend will decline. Bosnian climate, geographic position, cultural and historic monuments and before all the composition of its people are key attraction for visitors. Visitors will contribute significantly to the local and national economy and the economic multiplier effect of this spend, in turn, supports employment and secondary tourist facilities. Similarly, in the determination of future proposals that could impact on the setting, character and appearance of its potentials, special care is needed by planners and promoters to assess its potential, spread the awareness and unleash it to the Globe so that the benefits can be harvested. Bosnia can learn from its neighbors who are well known tourism leaders. There is a huge room for regional cooperation and collaboration. Nonetheless, Bosnia and Herzegovina has its competitive edge in its diversity that none of the neighbors can possibly acquire in the foreseeable future. Key to the sustainable approach of tourism and the cultural heritage is the preparation of appropriate master plan that takes into account the identified overall effects in order to guide the course of development in a manner that protects those very resources that attract visitors and that does not cause in the short, medium and long term any reduction in their character or appearance. If managed properly tourism can bring about positive change that its people await for long time. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/20897547874a1a59ee87e5cc1b37c6cc.pdf 4bd435449ab6e09b1ddcb0b1c17fb3ad PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Use of Hydroelectric Power in Sustainable Development of Turkey Ramazan SEVER Atatürk University, Turkey rsever@atauni.edu.tr Ünal ÖZDEMĐR Atatürk University, Turkey uozdemir@atauni.edu.tr Serhat ZAMAN Atatürk University, Turkey serhatz@atauni.edu.tr Mete ALIM Atatürk University, Turkey metealim@atauni.edu.tr Ogün COŞKUN Atatürk University, Turkey oguncoskun@atauni.edu.tr Abstract: Energy is a vital element of development. Clear, reliable, environmental friendly and sustainable energy is a prerequisite for the sustainable development. In recent years, it is known that fossil fuel resources are getting towards to finish and also they cause several environmental problems. Therefore, use of renewable energy sources are becoming a necessity. The hydroelectric power, also called green energy, is among the renewable energy sources although it has some disadvantages. Turkey, which is estimated that has 1% of the world and 16% of Europe total hydroelectric power, has initiated projects in order to benefit from these resources and some of them are completed and started to produce electricity. However, as it is the case for several countries nowadays, Turkey is having problems in producing required electricity. This energy necessity is partly overcome by importing petrol and natural gas. However, being dependent on outside energy resources carries important risks for economic and political development. Therefore, it appears that the best solution to the energy shortage is to maximize the use of renewable energy sources in sustainable ways. Currently, Turkey uses 34% (43 billion kwh) of the economic hydroelectric potential (125 billion kwh). Increasing this to 100% in the near future is quite important in terms of reaching planned development objectives. Keywords: Sustainable development, economic, energy, hydroelectric power. Introduction Increasing demand for energy which simultaneously rises with industrialization, population growth and urbanization gains significance each day. To meet energy demand, fossil fuels are commonly used. As of year 2007, the demand for global energy was obtained from 40,6% coal, 35,6% petroleum and 23,8% natural gas (www.enerji.gov.tr/2007). However, global reserves of the mentioned fossil resources are rather limited. Besides, greenhouse effect that emerges after their burning threatens ecosystems. Contrary to them, renewable energy sources such as sun, geothermal, hydroelectric, biogas, waves and wind are very economical in addition to their sustainable renew ability. Due to these reasons, it is necessary to gain attraction and universalize the use of new and renewable energy sources. Amongst the mentioned renewable energy sources, hydroelectric power-also known as green energy, takes the first place. Although there are 150 hydroelectric power plants in the country, it is noteworthy that this ratio represents merely 40% of global operable potential. As known, there is a detailed technology and experience field concerning dams and HPP (Hydroelectric Power Plant). Water, which is the raw material used in energy generation, has serious advantages for ecology since it is renewable and it continuously takes role in hydrological cycle rotation. Furthermore, it 185 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo has low operation cost and high economical life (Frey and Linke 2002, Yüksek and Kangal 2008:37-38). Therefore despite its minor disadvantages, it would be beneficial to actualize HPP projects in advance for the economical, ecological and strategic benefits of Turkey (Sever 2008:230). Since sustainable development is defined as meeting the demand for economical development needed by modern societies in a way not to hinder the needs of future groups (UNDP), renewable energy takes a step closer in that aspect because as known, conventional energy sources will not only be extinct in the future but their generation and consumption will seriously harm the environment (Altuntaşoğlu 2003:345). As is known, energy is a critical starting point in achieving the objectives related to social balance, economic growth and environmental protection which constitute three basic components of sustainable development. Accordingly, we need to reduce economical and ecological damages of energy consumption forced by sustainable development of society (Altuntaşoğlu 2003:346). Sustainable energy approach should cover in itself the strategy, technology and application that will enable continuous procurement of energy in a cheap environmental and social cost which can only be assured by considering renewable energy sources. Regardless of its high cost compared to other renewable energy sources (sun, wind, wave etc.) hydraulic power is an energy type with high applicability considering modern energy technology. Yet, while making use of this energy type the environmentalist approach envisaged in Renewable Energy Report presented in Global Sustainable Development Summit (2002) in Johannesburg should be strictly followed. Turkey’s Hydroelectric Potential and Utilization Status Turkey which is situated in the closest meeting point of continents Asia, Europe and Africa is amongst developing countries (Figure 1). Similar to most developed and developing countries, Turkey meets significant portion of its energy from expensive fossil fuels imported. In year 2006 in Turkey electrical energy need was procured from 43% natural gas, 28% coal, 25% hydraulic sources. These ratios will remain the same unless new and renewable potential sources are benefited. In that case our dependency to foreign energy sources will continue and besides the budget we desperately need to make use in other investments (industry, service, education) will be shrunk enormously. Benefiting from most of Turkey’s hydroelectric energy potential in advance would allow great economic profits because it is envisaged that merely 30% of the energy need of Turkey in 2030 will be met by hydroelectric. It would be very appropriate to benefit from hydroelectric prior to year 2030. Above all else, cheap electricity that will be attained by this green energy will have a driving role in development. Since the money used for import fuels will lessen, currency loss will also be decreased. Contribution of cheap energy to industrial development will give way to an increase in national income thus the effect of import energy on country economy will decrease. Moreover as pressure of political tensions on energy will be removed, the probability of actualizing investment projects will be greater. Figure 1: Geographical position of Turkey. 186 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Electrical energy, more than others, has been one of the leading problems of Turkey for a long time. It is obvious that energy trouble we suffer now will be present in future as well. It is urgent that Turkey which probably will have a double energy consumption about 20 years later (2030) should immediately operate all of its water power potential. Turkey (Table 1) which is estimated to possess approximately 1% of global hydroelectric potential and 16% of Europe has planned major energy projects to benefit from this potential and even started some of these projects’ operation. Table 1: World and Turkey’s hydroelectric power potential (www.dsi.gov.tr/hizmet/enerji.htm, 2005). World Europe Asia Turkey Gross HPP Potential (GWh/year) 41 390 000 3 125 000 19 902 000 433 000 Technical HPP Potential (GWh/year) 11 754 000 760 326 4 225 000 216 000 Economic HPP Potential (GWh/year) 7 305 000 758 705 2 626 000 123 400 According to approximate number presented by State Water Works (SWW), annual hydroelectric potential of Turkey which currently has rich water resources is about 128 billion kwh (Figure 2). However some studies envisage that this number can be increased by especially making use of river-type plants. Although there are various development and consumption scenarios about estimating long-term energy need from different parties and organizations, it is not hard to assume that in future Turkey’s energy consumption will rise and unless some measurements are taken presently, a bunch of political and economic problems will emerge in future. Finally, under the light of new projects prepared according to planning objectives of State Planning Organization (SPO), it is estimated that Turkey’s electrical energy need in 2030 will approximately be around 450-500 billion kwh It is envisaged that in 2020 about 25-30% of Turkey’s electrical energy need will be procured from hydroelectric power plants that will have been operated till then. Accordingly in year 2020 about 85% of Turkey’s total hydraulic energy potential will have been used. Figure 2: Turkey’s Streams and Dams. In Turkey, following the 1950s, occurring rapid population growth and urbanization accelerated the demand for electrical energy. In the face of this demand particularly in the 1960s and 1970s dam investments followed one another. Finally in the 1980s hydroelectric generation met roughly 50% of our annual energy need. Moreover as indicated in Table 2, in 1988 60% of our energy need was procured from hydroelectric power plants however energy generation ratio from water power has been falling lately (Table 2). 187 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Table 2: Development of electricity generation in Turkey with respect to energy sources, 1980-2007 ( TEĐAŞ, SHW-2007). ∗ Fueloil, diesel, naphta, renewable waste, geotermal, wind. Years 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Coal (Gwh) 5961 6136 6441 8577 10119 15028 19438 17654 12487 20270 20182 21561 24571 23760 28235 28047 30414 33860 35688 37031 38186 38417 32149 32253 34447 43192 47900 % 26 25 24 31 33 44 49 39 26 39 35 36 37 32 36 33 32 33 32 32 31 31 25 23 23 26 28 Natural gas (Gwh) 0 0 0 0 0 58 1341 2528 3240 9524 10192 12589 10814 10788 13822 16579 17174 22086 24838 36346 46217 49549 52496 63536 62242 73445 74368 % 0 0 0 0 0 0,2 3 6 7 18 18 21 16 15 18 19 18 21 22 31 37 40 41 45 41 45 43 Hydraulic (Gwh) 11348 12616 14167 11343 13426 12045 11873 18618 28950 17640 23148 22683 26568 33951 30586 35541 40475 39816 42229 34678 30879 24010 33864 35329 46084 39561 43544 % 49 51 53 41 44 35 30 42 60 34 40 38 39 46 39 41 43 39 38 30 25 20 26 25 31 24 25 Others (Gwh)∗ ∗ 5967 5967 5944 7427 7069 7088 7045 5554 3308 4311 4022 3412 5390 5238 5679 6080 6799 7534 8269 8386 9640 10749 11071 9462 7925 5758 7171 % Total (Gwh) 25 24 23 28 23 21 18 13 7 9 7 5 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 3 7 9 8 7 5 5 4 23276 24719 26552 27347 30614 34161 38356 44354 47985 52045 57544 60245 67343 73737 78322 86241 94862 103296 111024 116441 124922 122725 129400 140580 150698 161956 172983 The low ratio despite the significant developments in the number of HPP is attached to the highness of total energy generation. Indeed total energy generation which was 23 billion kwh in 1980 rose to 172 billion kwh in 2006. Although hydroelectric generation which was 11 billion kwh in 1980 rose to 46 billion kwh in 2004, still its share in total piece decreased. It is true that today, from 142 facilities of which installed capacity is 12 788 MW average annual 45 billion kWh energy is generated. Besides by completing 41 projects in construction, 13 projects in final stage and 13 projects in feasibility and master stages, hydroelectric energy will once again achieve a significant ratio (Table 3, Photo 1). Table 3:Distribution of Turkey’s hydroelectric energy potential by project levels (Gürbüz, 2007). Status of projects 188 Project (Number of facilities) Installed Capacity (MW) Annual Average Energy Generation Capacity (GWh) In-operation 142 12788 45930 In-construction 41 4397 14351 Projects in final stage 13 2356 6019 Projects with feasibility 176 7269 26415 Projects with master plan 93 5260 18280 Projects of which first investigation is complete Total 301 4474 17559 772 36544 129454 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Figure 1: Deriner will become highest (247 m) dam in Turkey, it completed (Çoruh River-Artvin). Despite the increase in energy consumption per person in our country, it is still lower than general expectations. In Turkey while electricity consumption was 7 kwh per person during the early years of Republic this number rose to 456 in 1980; in 1990 to 819; in 2000 to 1 449 and in 2004 to 1 687. Some sources indicate that this number reached to even 2 150 kWh as of 2005. Despite this huge increase in electricity generation, still the amount per person is low. Indeed consumption ratio which is behind global average (2 500 kwh ), compared to developed countries mostly European with 8 900 kwh and US average value 12 322 kwh, it becomes obvious that in energy use we are far behind the general objectives. Therefore while increasing the consumption of energy which is an indication of development, we should at the same time achieve major investments to procure required energy and prevent a possible energy crisis in future. Today many countries with different social and economic backgrounds have directed themselves to sustainable energy sources and developed major projects to increase the share of these sources in total energy generation. Currently amongst these sources, the most commonly profited one is hydroelectric potential. Actually in countries such as Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Ghana, Zambia, Congo, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Norway, Albania and Iceland the rate of hydroelectric in total energy generation reached to 90-100%. In addition to them Austria, Sweden, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Canada, Peru, Columbia, Georgia and New Zealand can be named as countries where hydroelectric energy generation share is more than half of total energy (Table 3). In Turkey in order to make hydroelectric potential profitable new dam and HPP technologies should be followed, and required arrangements should be accelerated for new investments. These sources should be utilized in coping with energy troubles in Turkey to lessen our foreign-source dependency and currency loss. Table 3: Hydroelectric shares of various countries in total energy generation, 2000 (U.N., 200: Statistical Yearbook. Geneva, United Nations., Öziş et al., 2008, Atılgan, 2000). Countries Paraguay Zaire/Konngo Mozambique Norway Albania Zambia Tajikistan Uruguay Kyrgyztan Iceland Ghana Brazil Costa Rica Peru Ecuador The Share of Total (%) 100 100 100 99 99 99 98 93 92 90 88 87 81 81 80 Countries Georgia Venezuela Colombia North Korea Australia New Zealand Canada Croatia Vietnam Sweden Bosnia-Herzegovina Chile Switzerland Nigeria Turkey The Share of Total (%) 79 74 73 65 63 63 61 55 55 50 50 46 40 37 32 189 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Conclusion Currently of approximately 125-130 billion kWh hydroelectric potential of Turkey, merely 35-40 billion kWh which amounts to 30-32%, although subject to change each year, is profited. In order to minimize foreign source dependency in energy and prevent possible energy crisis in future, it is essential that we make use of our renewable energy sources in the most profitable way. If we desire a better world to leave for the next generations, only after making use of sustainable energy sources can we achieve sustainable economical development model. Environment protection measurements and its sanctions go beyond national borders and achieve an international identity. Because of that reason, active participation to international solutions should be provided; renewable and environment friendly sources should be supported and developed. References Altuntaş, T. Z. (2003). Sürdürülebilir kalkınma yenilenebilir enerji ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarını kanun tasarısı taslağı. TMMOB IV. Enerji Sempozyumu, 2003, VA:345-355. Atılgan, I. (2000). Türkiye’nin enerji potansiyeline bakış. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık. Fakültesi Dergisi, 15 (1), 31-47. Doğanay, H. (1998). Enerji Kaynakları. Şafak yayınevi, Ankara. Frey, G.W. & Linke D.J. (2002). Hydropower as a renewable and sustainable energy resource meeting global energy challenges in a reasonable way. Energy Policy, 30, 1261-1265. Gürbüz, A. (2007). Sürdürülebilir enerji temini kapsamında hidrolik kaynaklı enerjinin önemi. IV. Yeni ve Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynakları Sempozyumu, 2007 . Türkiye Makine Müh. Odası, VA:289-298. Öziş, U., Baran T., & Dalkiliç, Y. (2008). Hidroelektrik Enerjiyi Geliştirme Hızları. Su ve Enerji Konferansı, 2008. VA:229-241. Sever, R. (2005). Çoruh nehri enerji yatırım projeleri ve çevresel etkileri. Çizgi Kitabevi, Konya. Sever, R. (2008) Türkiye hidroelektrik üretiminde Çoruh havzası enerji yatırım projelerinin yeri ve önemi. Su ve Enerji Konferansı, 2008), VA:229-241. U.N. (2001). Statistical yearbook. Geneva, United Nations. UNDP, Energy for sustainable development, a policy agenda. In T. B. Johansson & J. Goldenberg (Ed.) Yüksek, Ö. & Kangal, M. (2008). Türkiye’nin hidroelektrik potansiyel ve ihtiyacının değerlendirilmesi. Su ve Enerji Konferansı, 2008), VA:36-46. http://www.dsi.gov.tr (27 April 2009) http://www.dsi.gov.tr/basin/muratli.htm (27 April 2009) http://www.enerji.gov.tr/2009 (28 April 2009) http://www.tikdek.it (28 April 2009) http://www.tikdek.itu.edu.tr/bildiriler/ibrahim_gurer.pdf (28 April 2009) http://www.tuik.gov.tr/ (27 April 2009) ıea electricity ınformation 1999 (29 April 2009) http://www.teias.gov.tr/istatistik2005/index.htm (28 April 2009) 190 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 171 Title A name given to the resource Use of Hydroelectric Power in Sustainable Development of Turkey Author Author SEVER, Ramazan ÖZDEMİR, Ünal ZAMAN, Serhat ALIM, Mete COSKUN, Ogün Abstract A summary of the resource. Energy is a vital element of development. Clear, reliable, environmental friendly and sustainable energy is a prerequisite for the sustainable development. In recent years, it is known that fossil fuel resources are getting towards to finish and also they cause several environmental problems. Therefore, use of renewable energy sources are becoming a necessity. The hydroelectric power, also called green energy, is among the renewable energy sources although it has some disadvantages. Turkey, which is estimated that has 1% of the world and 16% of Europe total hydroelectric power, has initiated projects in order to benefit from these resources and some of them are completed and started to produce electricity. However, as it is the case for several countries nowadays, Turkey is having problems in producing required electricity. This energy necessity is partly overcome by importing petrol and natural gas. However, being dependent on outside energy resources carries important risks for economic and political development. Therefore, it appears that the best solution to the energy shortage is to maximize the use of renewable energy sources in sustainable ways. Currently, Turkey uses 34% (43 billion kwh) of the economic hydroelectric potential (125 billion kwh). Increasing this to 100% in the near future is quite important in terms of reaching planned development objectives Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory