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                    <text>An Analysis of the Factors Determining the Working Capital Requirement
for Non-Financial Companies
Seyda Kadayifci
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
seydakadayifci@gmail.com
Ali Coskun
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
alicoskun@hotmail.com
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the factors determining the working capital requirement
of firms. Companies require working capital to improve the capacity, expand the business volume, reduce
the risk of failing to meet their financial obligations, and become profitable and efficient. An inadequacy
of the working capital causes interruptions in the business operations. This study investigates the
determining factors of the working capital requirements of non-financial companies. The research
analysis was done on publicly traded firms, and the data was collected from BIST-100 in Turkey for the
years between 2011 and 2016. In this study, working capital requirement was used as the dependent
variable. Factors such as profitability, leverage, growth, firm size, age and industry were tested as
determining factors. PLS-SEM technique is employed in the research. Results reveal that two explanatory
variables- company's leverage, and profitability- are significant factors that determine the companies’
working capital requirements for the period under study.

Key words: Working Capital Requirement, Profitability, Leverage, Growth, Size, Age, Industry

Introduction
Managing the financial needs and operations of any business is very important to the
management of the company, as it has an effect on both the company's profits and liquid assets.
The literature on business finance focuses on three key areas. These are capital budgeting, capital
structure, and working capital management. Capital budgeting and capital structure concerns
long-term investment and financing decisions. Working capital management can be expressed as
the short-term investments of firms and the selection and management of financial strategies in
these investment decisions.
If there is not enough working capital to fulfill the obligations of a company, it may cause
financial insolvency, legal problems, and liquidation of assets (Hawley, 2015). For this reason, it
is very important for all enterprises to have sufficient management of their working capital.

225

�The amount of financing an entity needs to carry out its day-to-day business activities is a
working capital requirement, and it is the minimum amount of resources that a company needs to
effectually meet the usual costs of business operations. There are several factors in determining
working capital requirement and some studies such as Nazir and Afza (2009), Gill (2011), and
Saarani and Shahadan (2012) have examined these factors. The purpose of these studies was to
designate the determinants of the working capital requirement. On the other hand, many studies
that have been conducted in the area of working capital (Deloof, 2003; Raheman &amp; Nasr, 2007;
Perkovic, 2012) have examined the relationship between firm profitability and working capital.
Nazir and Afza (2009) and Gill (2011) have focused on determining the factors of working
capital requirements.
Since the identification of working capital requirements is of great importance in businesses, the
purpose of this study is to investigate the working capital requirements and determining factors
in non-financial companies in BIST 100 by using the Partial Least Squares – Structural Equation
Model (PLS-SEM) technique.
Literature Review
The working capital management as the management of current assets such as cash, marketable
securities, trade receivables and inventories that a firm has and the financing (specially, current
liabilities) necessity to support current assets (Van Horne and Wachowicz, 2005).
According to Palombini and Nakamura (2012), any researcher who conducts an overview of the
corporate finance literature will find no robust, widely accepted theory about working capital
management. Saarani and Shahadan (2012) put forward that for working capital management,
the closest relevant theory is the Pecking Order Theory, popularized by Myers and Majluf
(1984). According to the theory, companies should first use the funds necessary for financing
their investments from internal sources. If internal resources are inadequate, firms tend to use
debt to meet their funding needs. If the companies cannot meet their funding requirements with
the use of debt, the issue of shares should cover the fund requirement in the company. In theory,
internal resources are prioritized over external resources. So, this theory explains why the most
profitable firms use less debt because these companies are highly profitable and do not need
external sources. Enterprises with lower profitability rates export debt (Yakar, 2011).
Several aspects of such working capital practices around the world been discussed in the
literature. Some of these studies attempted to determine the effect of the working capital on the
factors, while some others examined many factors that determined the working capital and its
requirements.

226

�Nazir and Afza (2009) used panel data to study 132 firms from 2004 to 2007 in Pakistan, and
used the OLS (ordinary least squares) regression model to find the determinants of working
capital. Authors designated working capital as a dependent variable, operating cycle, level of
economic activity, operating cash flow, sales growth, return on assets, Tobin’s q, leverage, size
and industry as a determinants of working capital. According to the results, operating cycle,
leverage, ROA, and Tobin’s q are internal factors that significantly affect working capital
requirements.
BintiMohamad and MohdSaad (2010) investigated the impact of market valuation and
profitability on working capital management during the period 2003–2007 with a sample of 172
firms in Malaysia. The authors applied the Tobin Q, return on asset, and return on invested
capital as dependent variables, and used cash conversion cycle, current asset to current liability
ratio, current asset to total asset ratio, current liability to total asset ratio, and total debt to total
asset ratio as independent values. Correlation and multiple regression analysis results proved that
working capital variables and the firm’s performance have a negative relationship.
Another study that is effective in this regard was performed by Saarani and Sahadan (2012). The
authors used a sample of 285 firms for the period 2006–2008 in Malaysia. To determine the
factors of working capital requirements, the authors used working capital for a dependent value,
assets tangibility, profitability, debt, growth, non-debt tax shield, size, industry type, and age as
independent values. According to the results of the analysis of the structural equation model,
working capital requirement factors were found to be debt, profitability, non-debt tax shield, and
tangibility of assets.
Perković (2012) investigated the 131 manufacturing companies listed in Bosnia and Herzegovina
in 2005–2009 by using Pearson’s correlation test and regression analysis. According to his
findings, while the cash conversion cycle and financial leverage have a significant negative
impact on the profitability of the company, the impact of the size of the firm (sales) is significant
and positive.
Since the implementation of this thesis will be on the publicly traded non-financial companies in
Turkey, studies about working capital management conducted in Turkey were reviewed in detail.
The studies conducted in Turkey are summarized below.
Uyar (2009) obtained data from the Istanbul Stock Exchange for the year 2007. The cash
conversion cycle is employed as a measure of the working capital. Return on assets and return on
equity are used for profitability. The results showed that the cash conversion cycle has a
significant negative relation with the firm size and the profitability.

227

�Akbulut (2011) explored the profitability relation between the working capital management from
2000 to 2008, in the ISE manufacturing sector. In the study, working capital management is
measured by cash conversion cycle and profitability is measured by the return on assets.
Regression analysis has shown that there is a negative relationship between working capital
management and profitability.
The other study done in Turkey was done by Khajeh (2014), who examined the effect of 18 firms
belonging to the textile and leather sector from 2007 to 2012, regarding firm profitability of
working capital management, using panel data analysis. According to the results of the study,
there is a significant relationship between stock turnover, debt turnover, and gross profit.
Methodology
Data source
Data for this study were sourced from the annual financial reports of the companies, BIST 100.
In all, this study utilizes data from 70 non-financial firms for the 6- year period 2011-2016. So,
the total of 426 observations are included in the analysis.
Variable description and expectations
Dependent Variable: The working capital requirement is the minimum amount of resources that
a company needs to effectively cover the costs and expenses essential to operate the business
(Gill, 2011). As seen in some of the studies examined earlier, CCC was used to gauge the
efficiency of working capital, such as Sharma and Kumar (2011), Saarani and Shahadan (2012),
Palombini and Nakamura (2012), and Goel and Sharma (2015). The working capital to total
assets ratio gauge the ability of a company to cover its short-term financial obligations by
comparing its total current assets to its total assets. Qurashi and Zahoor (2017) and Abbadi and
Abbadi (2013) used this formula to try to find the determinants of working capital requirements.
Other measures used to measure working capital requirement are working capital to expenses
and working capital to revenue Saarani &amp; Shahadan, 2012).
Independent variables: Profitability, leverage, growth, firm size, age and industry are employed
as independent variables.
Wang, Feng, and Lawton (2015) indicated that a multi-dimensional perspective reflects firm
performance more comprehensively than a single measure of profitability. There are many
different ways and indicators to analyze profitability such as; return on equity, return on asset
and gross operating profit.Nazir and Afza (2009), Sharma (2011), Gill (2011), Saarani and
Shahadan (2012), Abbadi and Abbadi (2013), Agha (2014), Keskin and Gökalp (2016) used

228

�ROA to measure profitability. The return on equity ratio is a profitability ratio that measures how
much profit each equity shareholder's capital generates. To gauge the profitability Saarani and
Shahadan (2012), Naser, Nesuibeh and Al-Hedaya (2013) used return on equity. Lazaridis and
Tryfonidis (2006), Perković (2012), Dong and Su (2010) employed gross operating profit to
measure profitability.
Leverage is the financial debt ratio, which is used in order to bring into connection with the
external financing of the company and total assets (Abbadi &amp; Abbadi, 2013). Deloof (2003),
Raheman and Nasr (2007), Nazir and Afza (2009), Gill (2011), Sharma and Kumar (2011) used
the total debt divided by total assets to calculate the leverage.
Studies show that more growth opportunities will increase the cash hold and short-term
investment of a firm (Abuzayed, 2012). Two different indicators (sales growth and growth rate
of GDP) were used to measure growth in this study.Deloof (2003), Appuhami (2008), Nazir and
Afza (2009), Sharma and Kumar (2010), Palombini and Nakamura (2011), Gill (2011), Naser,
Nuseibeh and Al-Hadeya (2013), Goel and Sharma (2015) used sales growth to measure growth.
Nazir and Afza (2009), Abbadi and Abbadi (2013) used growth rate of GDP to measure growth.
Uyar (2009), Nazir and Afza (2009), Gill (2011), Sharma and Kumar (2011), Abbadi and Abbadi
(2013), used natural log of total assets to measure of firm size.
Abor and Biekpe (2009) and to Goel and Sharma (2015) used firm age in their researches as an
independent variable.
Firms in diversified sectors have different capital structures, different transactions, different
products, different credit policies, different customers and different markets. The elements as a
whole, affect working capital management. For this reason, it can be said that the type of
industry influences the working capital management (Naser, Nuseibeh, &amp; Al-Hadeya, 2013). Gill
(2011) and Naser, Nuseibeh and Al-Hadeya (2013) used industry as an independent variable.
The means by which the various variables adopted in this study are computed are as shown in
Table 1.

229

�Table 1: Measurement of the Variables
Variables

Abbreviation

Formulas
Number of days of accounts receivable + Number
of days of inventory – Number of days of
accounts payable
(Current Asset- Current Liability) / Total Assets

CCC

Working capital
requirement

WCR_T.A
(Current Asset- Current Liability) / Expenses
WCR_Exp
(Current Asset- Current Liability) / Revenue
WCR_Rev
ROA

Profitability

Net income of the firm / total assets
Net income of the firm / shareholder’s equity

ROE
GrsOpPr

Leverage

(Sales - COGS) / (Total Assets - Financial Assets)

LEV

Total Debt / Total Assets

S.GR

(This year’s sales – previous year’s
sales)/previous year’s sales
(This year’s GDP - previous year’s GDP)/
previous year’s GDP sales

Growth

GDP

Firm Size

SIZE

Age

AGE

Industry

INDS

The natural log of total assets of firm
Year under study - Year of incorporation
manufacturing firms=1; non- manufacturing=0

Hypothesis
There are six hypotheses developed based on previous studies. The following hypotheses and
supported studies are detailed.
Hypothesis
H1 : There is a relationship between Profitability
and Working Capital Requirement. (+/-)
H2 : There is a relationship between Growth and
Working Capital Requirement. (+/-)

230

Reference Literature
Nazir and Afza (2009), Abbadi and Abbadi
(2013), Palombini and Nakamura (2012)

Gill (2011), Naser, Nuseibeh and Al-Hadeya
(2013), Appuhami (2008), Nazir and Afza
(2009), Saarani and Shahadan (2012)

�H3 : There is a relationship between Leverage

Nazir and Afza (2009), Abbadi and Abbadi
(2013), Palombini and Nakamura (2012)

and Working Capital Requirement. (+/-)
H4 : There is a relationship between Size and
Working Capital Requirement. (+/-)

Uyar (2009), Gill (2011), Abbadi and Abbadi
(2013)

H5 : There is a relationship between Age and

Goel and Sharma (2015)

Working Capital Requirement. (+/-)
H6 : There is a relationship between INDS and

Naser, Nuseibeh and Al-Hadeya (2013)

Working Capital Requirement. (+/-)

Model
GrOpPr, ROA, and ROE are the indicators used in the measurement model of profitability. GDP
and S.GR are the indicators used in the outer model of Growth. CCC, WCR_T.A, WCR_Rev,
and WCR_Exp are the indicators used in the measurement model of working capital
requirement. Leverage, firm size, age, and industry have only one indicator in the measurement
model.
To test the hypothesis we implemented the partial least squares-structural equation modeling
technique (PLS-SEM). The data analyzed using SmartPLS® software version 3.2.6. Structural
Equation Model is used to test the causal relationships between latent variables and observed
variables through models. The aim of the SEM is to determine whether the theoretical model is
supported by the data or whether the model conforms to the data. SEM studies are generally
based on theory (Doğan, 2015). Because of the frequent use of SEM analysis, measurement
errors must be taken into account, unlike regression analysis; it is thought to give more accurate
results than the regression analysis (Alkış, 2016). Titman and Wessels (1988), Maddala and
Nimalendran (1995) and Saarani and Shahadan (2012) were applied SEM in corporate finance.

231

�Figure 1: PLS algorithm results (factors and items)

Result and Discussion
Analysis of measurement model reliability and validity
In order for a measurement model to has satisfactory internal consistency reliability, each
construct must exceed the composite reliability (CR) threshold of 0.7. Outer loadings looked to
check indicator reliability and 0.70 or higher is preferred if it is an exploratory research, 0.4 or
higher is acceptable (Hulland, 1999). The convergent validity of measurement model is
evaluated by investigate its average variance extracted (AVE) value. Convergent validity is
sufficient when there are at least 0.5 or more average variance (AVE) values in the constructs.

232

�Table 2: Results of Measurement Model- Convergent Validity
Constructs

Outer Loadings

WCR

0.429 (CCC)
0.883 (WCR/EXP)
0.794 (WCR/T.A)
0.899 (WCR/REV)
0.876 (ROA)
0.414 (ROE)
0.747 (GOP)
0.651 (S.GR)
0.929 (GDP)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

Profitability

Growth
Leverage
Age
FirmSize
Industry

Average Extracted Variance
(AVE)

Composite
reliability (CR)

0.61

0.79

0.50

0.73

0.65

0.85

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

Analysis of the Structural Model
The coefficient of determination, R2, is 0.431 for the WCR endogenous latent variable. R2
means the amount of described endogenous latent variables variance in the structural model. The
R2 value is normed between 0 and +1 and reflects the amount of described variance in the
construct (Hair, Hult, Ringle, &amp; Sarstedt, 2017). The value 0.431 in the Profitability, Leverage,
Growth, Firm Size, Age, Industry rows and the WCR column is the standardized path coefficient
of the relationship from those six variables to WCR. This means that the six latent variables
(Profitability, Leverage, Growth, Firm Size, Age and Industry) moderately (Kwong &amp; Wong,
2013) explain 43.1% of the variance in WCR.
According to previous studies, the path coefficient must be at least 0.1 a certain effect accounts
within the model (Hashim, 2012) (Hair, Hult, Ringle, &amp; Sarstedt, 2017). In this case, by
interpreting the graph, we can say that the leverage has a negative impact on WCR. Profitability
also affects the WCR positively.

233

�Table 3: Results of Hypothesis Testing
Hypotheses
H1

Path Relationship
Profitability and WCR

Β- Coefficient
0.176

T-statistic
3.785

Supported
Yes

H2

Growth and WCR

-0.059

0.909

No

H3

Leverage and WCR

-0.426

10.324

Yes

H4

Firm size and WCR

-0.005

0.125

No

H5

Age and WCR

-0.0064

1.992

No

H6

Industry and WCR

-0.426

0.521

No

Based on the research findings, WCR identified as being influenced by profitability (β = 0.176, t
= 3.785, p &lt; 0.05). This finding is in line with previous studies (Nazir &amp; Afza, 2009; Saarani &amp;
Shahadan, 2012; Abbadi &amp; Abbadi, 2013). These results means that the more profitable
companies are able to manage their working capital better. Besides, the better the company
manages its working capital, the more profitable is the company.
From the analysis, Working Capital Requirement is not influenced directly by Growth (β = 0.059, t = 0.909, not significant). These results are consistent with previous studies results (Nazir
&amp; Afza, 2009) (Saarani &amp; Shahadan , 2012).
Based on the research findings, WCR was identified as being influenced by Leverage (β = 0.462, t = 10.324, p &lt; 0.05). This result is supported in other studies (Nazir &amp; Afza, 2009;
Onaolapo &amp; Kajola, 2015; Saarani &amp; Shahadan,2012). These results mean that by increasing the
ratio of debt to total assets, companies should pay more attention to effective management of
working capital in order to prevent excess capital in accounts receivable and inventories. This
means that the financial manager can manage the working capital management by reducing the
company’s debt level to prevent unnecessary tying up of capital in accounts receivable and
stocks. As comprehensively discussed in the literature, this outcome is in accordance with the
pecking order theory.
From the analysis, working capital requirement is not influenced directly by Firm Size (β = 0.005, t = 0.125, not significant). This finding is in line with previous studies (Nazir &amp; Afza,
2009; Saarani &amp; Shahadan, 2012).
Working capital requirement is influenced directly by Age (β = -0.064, t = 1.992, p &lt; 0.05).
These results are consistent with previous study results (Nazir and Afza, 2009; and Goel and
Sharma, 2015)
Working capital requirement is not influenced directly by Industry (β = -0.462, t = 0.521, not
significant). These results are consistent with previous study results (Saarani &amp; Shahadan, 2012).

234

�Conclusion
The study finds that profitability, age and leverage factors, which are influencing the working
capital requirements significantly. So, it can be concluded that the listed companies in BIST their
working capital requirements based on the profitability, age and leverage. For age, results are in
accordance with the earlier studies of Nazir and Afza (2009) and Goel and Sharma (2015). For
profitability, results are in accordance with the earlier studies of Nazir and Afza (2009), Saarani
and Shahadan (2012) and Abbadi and Abbadi (2013). For leverage, results are in accordance
with the earlier studies of Nazir and Afza (2009), Saarani and Shahadan (2012), Onaolapo and
Kajola (2015). In addition, if they manage these factors in a more efficient way, it may be the
result that companies can improve their profitability.
On the other hand, contrary to expectations, this study could not confirm statistically the
importance of four factors- growth (Nazir and Afza, 2009; Saarani and Shahadan, 2012), age
(Saarani and Shahadan, 2012), firm size (Nazir and Afza, 2009; Saarani and Shahadan, 2012)
and industry (Saarani and Shahadan, 2012) as determinant factors of working capital
requirements. These results are in accordance with the earlier studies.
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Empirical Evidence from India . Global Business Review , 12 (1), 159-173.

238

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                    <text>1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo

An Analysis of the Impact of Motivating Factors on
Tourism Agencies in Turkey
Şuayip ÖZDEMĐR
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Department of Business Administration, Afyon Kocatepe
University, Turkey
Tel: +90 (272) 228 1292, Fax: +90 (272) 228 1145, sozdemir@aku.edu.tr
Yusuf KARACA
Assist. Prof. Dr. Department of Business Administration, Afyon Kocatepe
University, Turkey

Abstract: This study investigates the relations between agencies and hotels in Turkey, from
the perspective of business to business marketing. Drawing on the data obtained from 189
agencies by a survey. The results of the research show that six variables are important. Their
order of importance as followings: Communication with the agencies, supports for agencies,
the relationship between agencies and hotel companies, promotion activities for clients and
agencies, promotion activities encouraging and out of business relations between agencies and
hotel company.
Keywords: agency, tourism, distribution channel.

Introduction
This study investigates the motives influencing the perception of tourism agencies towards to hotel
companies. This research will try to illustrate why tourism agencies prefer one hotel brand to others. There is a
little study in the literature on the subject how agencies could be motivated by hotel companies. Generally,
authors refer to other aspects of relationship between agencies and hotels. Karamustafa (2000:24) emphasized
price-related problems which are tour operators frequently encountered. Jorgensen and Zaccour (2003:801)
discuss the effects of marketing strategies on the other member’s actions.
Tourism agencies are the most common intermediaries between the guest and a hotel company. They
play four important roles at the market. Firstly, they act as information brokers between guests and managers.
Secondly they process transactions by booking rooms and transferring money. Thirdly, they provide advice to
their customers. Finally, they provide better services by considering their customers’ needs and feedback.
Tourism agencies help with the customers’ safety, good value, and high quality for the guests. These
intermediaries do business with the hotels much more regularly than the guests do. Most travel agencies receive
little feedback on their clients’ satisfaction with their hotels client. The majority of travel agencies think that no
complaints as indicator of clients’ satisfaction.
From hoteliers’ point of view travel agencies want to improve their relationship with hotel companies
carry out joint-marketing activities and include more detailed information in the sales brochures (Medina-Munoz
et al. 2002).
Buhalis and Licata (2001) underline electronic communication devices affecting the intermediaries in
the tourism industry. They explain that using the internet, the interactive digital television and the mobile devices
bring new intermediaries called e-mediaries. From the point of experts, they suggest to reengineering business
process concerning the relationship between hotels and agencies. Ozturan and Roney (2004) find out that travel
agencies cannot use the internet effectively in Turkey. Travel agencies still use traditional marketing
communication channels such as printed media and telephone.
Knowing of the expectations of agencies and distributor firms is important for keeping successful relationship.
The industrial resellers expect financial and competitive differentiation benefits from main company. A finding
of a study on the USA shows that greater benefit differentiation leads to fewer financial benefits (Ghosh et al.,
2004)
Supplier firms try to attract agencies using different applications and methods. For example economic and
non-economic tools are preferred to encourage agencies by the hotels. The following two parts will explain
economic and non-economic tools respectively.

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1. Economic Tools For Motivation
Economic tools that aim to motivate agencies are the pecuniary ones. The agencies are encouraged by
these tools. As a consequence of using economic tools, agencies could increase their profits and so
intermediaries willing to make further cooperation with the hotel companies. There are many economic tools in
the practice that being used to affect intermediaries directly. Some selected important economic tools are
explained below.
Firstly, quotas are used as an economic tool. Supplier firms aim to make the members of distribution
channel join actively in marketing their own products using quotas. In order to make their distribution system
that they used active and effective, both sides want to use law sanctions based on agreements or other powers
(Aksoy, 1990:14-19).
Secondly, discounts, financial aids, compensation are used as economic tools. Such tools could be used to
decrease the conflicts and improve the cooperations. For realization of it, suppliers apply discounts, financial
aids, compensations, and setting protective rules by an agreement (Islamoglu, 1999:440-442). Intermediaries
expect from the suppliers financial aids and competitive differentiation (Gosh et al., 2004). Tsay (2001) points
out those intermediaries could be motivated by cash discounts and give back policy. It is also suggested that
supplier firms could encourage the intermediaries using the difference price for in favor of intermediaries (Li and
Dant, 1999).
Thirdly, promotion, advertising and co-marketing are also used for motivation economically. (i)
Promotion activities of supplier firms support the intermediaries’ activities such as giving gifts (e.g. pens,
calendars, etc.) in special day and religious festivals. At the same time, intermediaries’ promotion activities also
support the suppliers. This creates a mutual support between agencies and hotels. (ii) Advertising, public
relations, personal selling and the other marketing activities of hotels motivate agencies. (iii) Co-marketing
activities would be providing the reduction of cost and increase of effectiveness for both agents and the hotel
companies.
To sum up, this section explained main economic tools that motivate intermediaries such as quotas,
discounts, financial aids, compensations, agreements, difference price, cash discounts, co-marketing and
promotion activities. Non-economic tools are explained in the following section.

2. Non-Economic Motivation Tools
Non-economic tools to motivate agencies are not pecuniary ones such as communication, personal
relationships, participating to decisions, cooperation, problem solving. In practice, the number of non-economic
tools is more than economic tools. The most important feature of non-economic tools is that these tools provide
some advantages that make intermediaries the same profit with lesser working. Moreover, non-economic tools
encourage voluntary efforts in the mid or long term.
There are three factors influencing the recommendation of agencies’ a hotel to a client: The quality of
communications with intermediaries, the hotel brand name, and the incentives for intermediaries. These
communication tools provide hotel companies some advantages. Another three tools that contribute to the hotel
companies as the followings: Efficiency of computer systems for reservations, the sales representatives, and the
information received in following intermediaries’ requests (Dube and Renaghan, 2000:73-74).
Medina-Munoz and Falcon (2000) report that the intermediaries’ successes depend on five factors:
interorganizational trust, commitment towards the relationship, interorganizational communication
(coordination, communication quality, information exchange and participation), conflict resolution and
interorganizational dependence. But at the same time they had said there is no model established as an entirely
satisfactorily alliance. As a result of their study, in order to improve the impresenting of interorganizational
relationships in the tourism industry should be examined from the perspective of tourism agencies, recreational
companies, airlines and rental companies.
According to Gilliland (2003:60; 2004:88) there are five factors for the intermediaries of electronic
equipment such as credible channel policies, market development support, supplemental contact, high-powered
incentives, end-user encouragements. Later, he mentions about 16 subgroups differentiating these factors into
subgroups again which contains both economic and morale variables.
Shipley and Egan (1992) report that the countrywide marketing activities of the supplier firms, supported
marketing activities of intermediaries, the opportunity of product wideness and open relations and personal
relationships between supplier and intermediaries are thought important by intermediaries. They were also
underlining that, if there are being low motivated or demoralized intermediaries in the distribution channel,
conflicts will be inevitable in this channel and the conflicts prevent the effectiveness of channel. Because
intermediaries expect the reward for taking capital risk and labor force. Furthermore intermediaries compare the

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rewards of other similar intermediaries, the will cause conflict if there are any disadvantageous difference
against them. The first way of cooperation in a distribution channel and preventing conflict is better
communication.
Yukselen, (2003:262-263) evaluate the motivation of distribution channel members and conflict among
them simultaneously and he shows collaboration, partnership and the activities of programming the distribution
as incentives
Motivations of intermediaries are generally related to their expectations. The transformation of four P’s
(product, price, place and promotion) in the marketing mix into four C’s (customer value, convenience, cost,
communication) is the most important clue to understand the expectations of intermediaries as industrial
customers. Using the elements of marketing mix (4P) as (4C) makes intermediaries’ self-confidence. Trust is the
first expectation of international intermediaries from the supplier, especially in industrial marketing (Marshall,
2003). As long as intermediaries feel in confidence it is easier to motivate them
Yaprakli (1997) classifies motivation tools as rewarder power, punisher power, or charismatic power for
newcomers in the channel. Akin (1997) also adds to these tools three new powers: legal, expertise and
leadership. It is known that supplier firms' participating intermediaries making plans and solving problems has
positive effects on the interorganizational relationships. (Claro et al. 2003). Since active participation willingly
have positive effect for both sides, motivation is an important tool, and lack of motivation is one of the reasons
that cause lack of cooperation and conflicts and increase these conflicts (Tek, 1997:563). This reason, when
motivation is accepted as the basic factor in cooperation and conflicts, it will be easy to solve the problems since
the reason of the problem is determined truly. Actually, relationship between supplier and intermediaries is a
kind of human behavior in a group from social-psychological perspective. The trust between intermediaries and
supplier firms, relative profit gained from the sold products, cooperation and supplier firms’ satisfaction from the
intermediaries affect the relationships (Anderson and Narus, 1984). Namely, the trust and satisfaction of the
representatives are accepted as trust and satisfaction of intermediaries.
Weber (2001) put forward that the communication tools and using frequency of these tools determine the
relationship between supplier and intermediaries. Especially, internet increases the communication and sharing
the information, thus increase effectiveness of relationship between suppliers and intermediaries.
Intermediaries positively affect the use high technology communication. As a result of this thought,
intermediaries’ opinion affects long term relation expectations with the supplier positively (MacDonald and
Smith, 2003; Hunter et al., 2003).
Customer services of the supplier firms are important for relationships between supplier and
intermediaries (Parasuraman, 1998); because each of the intermediaries is an industrial customer. Being focused
on the targets, power equity and cooperation helps firms have contracted to each other reciprocally (Dabholkar
and Neeley, 1998).
Dickson and Zhang (2004) determined that the referent power influenced positively on retailer’s attitudes
toward and non-economic satisfaction with their suppliers in apparel industry in China. They reported that the
greater referent power also reduced channel conflict and enhanced economic satisfaction with business
performance. They also reported that greater channel conflict was associated with increasing economic
satisfaction with business performance.
Anderson and Narus (1990) state the relationship between distributors and supplier firms can be
considered in one perspective. Considering the subject both from supplier and distributors’ perspective, they had
seen distributors as a customer who must be satisfied. Their satisfaction is determined by the outcomes of
distributor communication, relative dependence, cooperation, trust and conflict. Whose power will be stronger in
this relationship? Anderson and Narus, (1984) reported that distributors’ comparison levels of outcomes and
comparison levels of alternatives determine the powerful side of this relationship.
Briefly, main non-economic tools that impact motivation of intermediaries are following:
Communication, Personal relationships, expectations of intermediaries, participating to decisions, cooperation,
problem solving, trust, communication tools, power and customer services,

3. Research Method
The survey was conducted on a sample of privately held Turkish companies in November December 2004
/ February 2005. The research was employed on a sample of 240 tourism and traveling agencies. All the sample
companies are the members of TURSAB (Association of Turkish Travel Agencies). TURSAB has 4585 member
tourism and traveling agencies in countrywide. The names and addresses of these agencies are available from the
website of TURSAB. Three copies of the questionnaire were distributed to each of 58 fourth-year undergraduate
students of the Department of Management at Afyon Kocatepe University, with the instruction to visit two
tourism and traveling agents they chose from the TURSAB database list. The researcher was the convener of the
course “Research Methods” for this fourth-year undergraduate programme class. A decision was made by the
researcher to assign the students to conduct the survey as a part in fulfilling the course. The participation-

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invoking nature of personal communications and the cost constraints led the researcher to prefer this method to
mailing the questionnaire. No restriction was applied in choosing the companies. But once a student chose a
company, the name of the company was noted down and subsequent students were not allowed to choose it in
order to eliminate the possibilities of duplicate questionnaires. The aim and nature of the research were
addressed to the students beforehand. They were asked to bring back the questionnaires in stamped and signed
form by participants, and were told that further confirmation with the participants may be made later via
telephone. The students presented agent each business with a letter of invitation to participate in the survey.
Once the invitation was accepted, the students directed the questions to the participants. A few directors (28)
rejected the invitation letter to participate in the study by indicating some personal reasons (not having enough
time, going for a trip, etc.). In the case of rejection, students have chosen new companies. All the representative
directors who accepted the invitation letter completed the questionnaire. The questionnaires were stamped and
signed by the participating board member and the students noted the date of the interview. During November
2004 and February 2005, the students returned the questionnaires and for confirmation purposes telephone calls
were made to 12 (more than 6% of sample) companies. Telephone interviews with the participants indicated that
they were enthusiastic on the subject and answered the questions seriously. Verification of their answers in these
phone calls also showed that there were no differences in terms of their answers on the phone and those that they
gave in the questionnaires. Therefore, it was not deemed necessary to make further phone calls for confirmation
purposes. Of the 212 questionnaires distributed and then collected in that way, 23 were eliminated due mainly to
missing information. This resulted in 189 usable questionnaires, corresponding to 79 percent of the
questionnaires answered. The reliability of questionnaires is measured by Cronbach Alpha coefficient
(Cronbach alpha=0,91) which shows that dataset is reliable to analyze.
A questionnaire that consists of three parts is used in the research. Characteristics of the participants have
been investigated in the first part. The attitudes of the intermediaries to hotel companies are measured in the
second part. Likert scale is used in this part (1 strongly agree, 2 agree, 3 no idea, 4 disagree, 5 strongly disagree).
The importance of practices of hotel companies and the success of these practices are measured in the
third part. Likert scale is used in this part, too (1 very important, 2 important, 3 no idea, 4 not important, 5 not
very important). Variables used in this part are based on Gillilands’ (2003; 2004) studies. Gilliland (2003; 2004)
points out five factors that motivate intermediaries. Credible channel policies, market development support,
supplemental contact, high-powered incentives, end-user encouragements.
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics
Establishment date

Before 1990
Between 1990-1999
Between 2000-2003

Frequency
48
90
51

Percent
25,4
47,6
27,0

Number of hotels (or brand name) that
intermediaries represent.

Only one brand
Two or more brands

66
123

35
64,8

Intermediaries that have another job different
from tourism.

Yes
No

51
138

27,0
73,0

Table-1 shows descriptive statistics of sample companies. A perusal of Table-1 indicates that almost 73%
participants have experience in the tourism sector more than five years. It is expected that data based on these
experienced companies may yield robust findings. Majority of participants (64,8%) represent two or more hotels
or brand names. Majority of agencies (73%), work only as tourism agency, and the rest of the agencies (27%) do
additional business such as logistics, public relations, hotel management and real estate agency.

4. Findings
Evaluation of agencies towards hotel, analyzed by using eight expressions which are shown in the
following table. The responses to these expressions indicate that tourism agencies intend to maintain relationship
with the hotel companies. As shown in Table-2, the weighted mean (1,74) of this expressions indicates that
agencies are satisfied by hotel companies. In addition, tourism agencies believe that clients are satisfied with the
hotels that are booked (mean=1,39). They also happy for being agencies of hotels and they plan to do business
with these hotels.
Table 2 also illustrates that agencies believe that hotel companies make enough effort to increase the
profit of agencies (mean=2,03), and give reward to agencies’ performance (mean=2,21). It should be noted that
this finding is relatively stronger than other findings in Table 2.

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Table 2. Evaluation of Agencies regarding Hotel Companies
Mean
1,18
1,20
1,39
1,48
1,51
1,59
2,03
2,21
1,74

We are planning to do business with these hotels for a long time.
We are pleased with hotels that we represent them.
Our clients are pleased with hotels that we represent them.
We are happy for being agencies of hotels.
We believe that the products of these hotels are well.
Hotel company has a good relationship with us.
Hotel company makes efforts to increase our profits.
Hotel company rewards our performance.
Weighted mean

Std.
Deviation
0,50
0,40
0,64
0,77
0,75
0,82
1,21
1,19

Means= 1 strongly agree, 2 agree, 3 no idea, 4 disagree, 5 strongly disagree

Table 3. Associate Relationship between Agencies and Hotel Companies
Evaluation of current situation
(services oh hotels)
%

Perceived importance

Mean

Solving the conflict between agencies and hotel company
1,32
Including encouraging factors in the agreement increase to
1,50
sell hotel products.
When rival companies want to steal agencies, whether the
hotels maintain the relationship with the agencies to continue 1,80
with them.
Establishing partner advisory council
1,59
Compensating the loss of reps due to direct sales.
1,67
Giving client list to agency in a market division
1,86
Agreeing a market division belong to an agency
2,33
Weighted mean
1,72

Std.
Deviation

Enough

No idea

Not Enough

,50

66,1

6,4

27,5

,72

69,8

14,3

15,9

,90

52,9

36,5

10,6

,78
,88
,93
1,22

43,9
49,2
47,1
32,8

23,8
27,5
34,4
38,6

32,3
23,3
18,5
28,6

Means= 1 very important, 2 important, 3 no idea, 4not important , 5 not very important

Table 3 shows the associate relationship between agencies and hotel companies. The finding indicates
that from the agencies’ perspective, the most important subject at relationship between agencies and hotel
companies is “solving the conflict between agencies and hotel company”. The other variables that affect the
relationships between agencies and hotel companies are as follows in turn according to their importance: (1)
Including encouraging factors in the agreement increase to sale hotel products, (2) when rival companies want to
steal agencies, (3) whether the hotels maintain the relationship with the agencies to continue with them, (4)
establishing partner advisory council, (5) compensating the loss of reps due to direct sales,(6) agreeing a market
division belong to an agency (7) giving client list to agency in a market division (8) solving the conflict between
agencies and hotel company. Majority of agencies (66,1%) perceive that “solving the conflict between agencies
and hotel company” and “encouraging agreements to sale hotel company.
Table 4. Supports for Agencies
Perceived importance

Representative’s ability in communication
Hotels catalogs and brochures
Providing information for agencies about products and sales methods
Special communication opportunities between agencies and hotels
Training meeting
Rewarding successful agencies
Participating to fairs
Advertorials
Appropriating financial funds for agencies’ marketing activities
Certification programs for agencies
Allocating more financial funds for market development
Number of hotel staff for selling hotel products
Weighted mean

Mean

Std.
Deviation

1,11
1,27
1,47
1,47
1,52
1,53
1,55
1,58
1,76
1,74
1,89
2,08

,32
,55
,57
,74
,72
,79
,69
,76
,82
,73
,80
,94

Evaluation of current situation
(services of hotels)
%
Not
Enough No idea
Enough

77,8
87,8
70,6
76,2
68,8
50,8
58,2
64,0
37,0
54,0
42,8
74,6

20,1
4,2
17,6
15,9
11,6
21,7
21,7
13,8
27,5
20,1
28,6
17,5

2,1
7,94
11,8
7,9
19,6
27,5
20,1
22,2
35,5
25,9
28,6
7,9

1,58

Means= 1 very important, 2 important, 3 no idea, 4not important , 5 not very important

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Support methods for agencies are evaluated in Table 4. Based on the findings in the table, it could be
suggested that representative’s ability in communication is very important who represent the hotel against
agencies and it is found that majority of hotels are successful in this subject (77,8%). The findings also indicate
that brochures and catalogs are important to support agencies to find new clients. Hotels’ brochures and catalogs
are perceived successfully by agencies. Information about sales methods is perceived satisfactory (87,8%).
Providing information for agencies about products, sales methods, and number of hotel staff for selling hotel
products, special communication opportunities between agencies and hotels are found adequate.
Hotel companies’ financial funds which are kept for market development and agencies’ marketing
activities are perceived inadequate. While half of the hotel companies are found successful at rewarding
agencies’ performance, 27,5% of agencies believe that hotels do not reward their performance.
Table 5. Communication with the Agencies
Perceived importance

One to one relationship between representative of hotels and
agencies’.
Information on the internet (online support, training)
Using internet to communicate the agencies
Communication programs for better work relationships
Giving information about new products
Meeting for agencies
Defining price and quota automatically
Weighted mean

Mean

Std.
Deviation

1,32

,47

1,44
1,44
1,48
1,48
1,65
1,89

,59
,59
,50
,70
,98
,82

Evaluation of current situation
(services oh hotels)
%
Enough
No idea Not Enough

84,1

5,8

10,1

79,8
82,0
69,8
85,7
65,6
49,2

10,1
7,9
14,3
12,2
10,1
34,9

10,1
10,1
15,9
2,1
24,3
15,9

1,52

Means= 1 very important, 2 important, 3 no idea, 4 not important , 5 not very important

As long as hotels have enough information about agencies, they encounter fewer problems in dealing with
customers. Therefore, communication with agencies has special importance. The communication between hotels
and agencies is analyzed in Table 5. It is found that the most important variable concerning with the
communication is the person who represents the hotel against agencies; especially the skills of representative
have a decisive role. Majority of agencies (84,1%) perceive that one to one relationship between representative
of hotels and agencies’ is pleasing. Majority of the agencies think that using internet, giving information about
products, and communication programs are important.
Table 6. Out of Business Relations between Agencies and Hotel Company
Perceived importance

Entertainment together
Club activities for agencies
Join in adventure together
Weighted mean

Mean

Std.
Deviation

2,26
2,38
2,87

,96
,92
1,19

Evaluation of current situation
(services oh hotels)
%
Enough

No idea

Not Enough

39,6
28,6
21,7

30,2
32,8
42,9

30,2
38,6
35,4

2,50

Means= 1 very important, 2 important, 3 no idea, 4not important , 5 not very important

The findings of an analysis of out of business relations between agencies and hotel companies are shown
in Table 6. It is found that one third of hotel companies have out of business relations with agencies. However,
these kinds of activities such as entertainment, adventure and club activities are not important events for
agencies.
Table 7. Promotion Activities for Encouraging Agencies
Perceived importance
N

Mean

Std.
Deviation

Collectively advertising
62
1,66
,74
Providing payment options
62
1,85
,94
Bonus, reward, premium
63
1,87
,94
Gifts, promotional materials
63
1,90
,96
Financial programs (discounts even in small quantity)
63
1,94
,98
Giving agency firm identity card
61
1,98
,94
Rewarding new client by money (discount, cash)
62
2,53
1,05
Weighted mean
1,96
Means= 1 very important, 2 important, 3 no idea, 4not important , 5 not very important

288

Evaluation of current situation
(services oh hotels)
%
Not
Enough
No idea
Enough
52,9
21,7
25,4
46,0
30,7
23,3
50,2
24,9
24,9
58,7
18,0
23,3
49,7
30,2
20,1
49,2
25,4
25,4
24,9
30,7
44,4

�1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo

Table 7 shows the findings of promotion activities for encouraging agencies. According to table agencies
perceive that collectively advertising is important though it is found that half of hotel companies’ co-advertising
effort is enough(52,9%). Comparing with the other promoting activities, rewarding the clients by money, giving
firm identity card, discounts (even in small quantity), and promotion materials are relatively unimportant for
agencies.
Table 8. Promotion Activities Intended for Clients
Perceived importance

Sales campaigns
Informing the client concerning agencies (links on the web
etc.)
Advertising
Training the agencies at finding new clients
Demonstrations
Sales on internet
Co-marketing activities
Giving trials
Establishing quota for agencies
Weighted mean

Evaluation of current situation
(services oh hotels)
%
Enough
No idea Not Enough

Mean

Std.
Deviation

1,50

,67

76,7

13,8

9,5

1,59

,78

58,2

18,0

23,8

1,55
1,71
1,76
1,94
2,03
2,16
2,26

,72
,84
,84
1,19
,94
1,14
1,01

62,9
37,6
61,4
57,1
38,6
31,2
44,4

17,5
37,0
22,2
24,4
36,5
43,4
42,3

19,6
25,4
16,4
18,5
24,9
25,4
13,3

1,83

Means= 1 very important, 2 important, 3 no idea, 4not important , 5 not very important

Promoting activities intended for clients are examined in Table 8. The findings indicate that sales
campaigns are the most important promotion method. According to agencies’ viewpoint, majority of hotels are
successful at sales campaigns (76,7%). Informing client about the agencies and activities of advertising intended
for the clients are important promoting activities. Moreover hotels are successful at these activities. Hotel
companies are found relatively unsuccessful in training the agencies at finding new clients, giving trials and comarketing activities.

Conclusion
Tourism agencies are intermediaries between hotels and their customers. Therefore agencies have
enormous importance in finding customers for hotels. Despite the fact that hotels want to have a priority in the
list of tourism agencies, tourism agencies do not give equal opportunity for finding customers to all listed hotels
for some reasons such as lack of knowledge, weak communication, etc. Tourism agencies expect some
incentives. The channel relations between hotels and tourism agencies exemplify a business to business
marketing. This study investigates the relations between agencies and hotels in Turkey, from the perspective of
business to business marketing.
In this study, six main variables and their sub variables are investigated for examining agencies attitudes
to hotels. The findings indicate that, generally speaking, tourism agencies have positive attitudes to hotel
companies. Based on the findings, it could be suggested that the following factors are the most important ones
which determine agencies’ attitudes: communication with the agencies, supports for agencies, relationship
between agencies and hotel companies, promotion activities intended for clients and agencies, promotion
activities encouraging, and agencies out of business relations between agencies and hotel company.
The findings of the research indicate that the intermediaries are found the hotels successful. Factors which
are important for agencies also found adequate or vice versa. It could be investigated whether agencies’ demand
or hotels’ success dominate in this relation. This offers a direction for future research.

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                <text>This study investigates the relations between agencies and hotels in Turkey, from  the perspective of business to business marketing. Drawing on the data obtained from 189  agencies by a survey. The results of the research show that six variables are important. Their  order of importance as followings: Communication with the agencies, supports for agencies,  the relationship between agencies and hotel companies, promotion activities for clients and  agencies, promotion activities encouraging and out of business relations between agencies and  hotel company.</text>
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                <text>The present study was intended to analyze the impact of utilizing the genre of humour on Iranian EFL learners’ Willingness to Communicate (WTC) in English. To this end, forty participants equally divided into experimental and control groups took part in an experiment. The control subjects were required to participate in oral class discussions, whereas the experimental subjects were scaffolded with humorous anecdotes by Hill (1980) over seven interview sessions, which were geared towards the topics under debate. The content analysis of the transcriptions was carried out through the t test procedure by calculating the relative loading of the Idea Units (IUs) in the data, which Ellis (1984, as cited in, Kamimura &amp; Oi, 2001) has proposed as a measure to examine the students’ communicative strategies in the oral production. Pedagogically, it was found that using texts belonging to the genre of humour augmented the experimental participants’ WTC in the target language in comparison with that of the control subjects since there was a significant difference between the mean scores of the relative loadings of the IUs found in the transcriptions obtained from the segments of talk by the experimental group than those identified in the fragments of talk by the control group.</text>
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Ülker Akkutay &amp; Neşe (Işik) Tertemiz
Gazi University/ Ankara, Turkey
Key words: Foreign language education, classroom management, teacher training
ABSTRACT
Teachers’ beliefs on teaching and learning reflect their theoretical orientations as well as their teaching practice
(Dooley, 1997). Teachers try to provide the optimal learning conditions for their students and to meet their learning
needs. Given that teacher training experiences affect the pre-service teachers’ views about teaching, the
investigation of their views about classroom management is significant to improve teacher training programs. One
of the tools dealing with the pre-serice teachers’ views on classroom management was developed by Martin, Yin
and Baldwin (1998). This tool analyses the pre-service teachers’ beliefs on classroom management under three
categories: management of teaching, management of people and management of behaviour.
The current study will employ this tool, “The scale of the attitudes towards and beliefs bout classroom
management”, developed by Martin et. al. (1998) to collect the data of the study. The major aim of the tool is to
identify the teachers’ perceptions and beliefs in regard to classroom management and practices. The adaptation of
the tool into Turkish was done by Savran (2002). The participants of the study are third and fourth grade pre-service
foreign language teachers attending a public university in Ankara during the acadmic year of 2012-2013. Firstly,
their mean scores on the scale will be revealed, indicating their attitudes towards and beliefs about classroom
management. Then their mean scores will be analysed and compared based on some variables, indicating the
department they are attending, gender, whether or not taking the course of classroom management, whether or not
taking the course of educational philosophy, school experience and practical experience. T-test will be employed to
see whether or not the mean scores of the participant groups differ significantly. The findings will be discussed in
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                <text>Key words: Foreign language education, classroom management, teacher training  ABSTRACT  Teachers’ beliefs on teaching and learning reflect their theoretical orientations as well as their teaching practice (Dooley, 1997). Teachers try to provide the optimal learning conditions for their students and to meet their learning needs. Given that teacher training experiences affect the pre-service teachers’ views about teaching, the investigation of their views about classroom management is significant to improve teacher training programs. One of the tools dealing with the pre-serice teachers’ views on classroom management was developed by Martin, Yin and Baldwin (1998). This tool analyses the pre-service teachers’ beliefs on classroom management under three categories: management of teaching, management of people and management of behaviour.  The current study will employ this tool, “The scale of the attitudes towards and beliefs bout classroom management”, developed by Martin et. al. (1998) to collect the data of the study. The major aim of the tool is to identify the teachers’ perceptions and beliefs in regard to classroom management and practices. The adaptation of the tool into Turkish was done by Savran (2002). The participants of the study are third and fourth grade pre-service foreign language teachers attending a public university in Ankara during the acadmic year of 2012-2013. Firstly, their mean scores on the scale will be revealed, indicating their attitudes towards and beliefs about classroom management. Then their mean scores will be analysed and compared based on some variables, indicating the department they are attending, gender, whether or not taking the course of classroom management, whether or not taking the course of educational philosophy, school experience and practical experience. T-test will be employed to see whether or not the mean scores of the participant groups differ significantly. The findings will be discussed in the light of previous findings.</text>
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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

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Turkey, Energy Economics, 26, 335–344.
Sarı, R., Ewing, B.T. and Soytas, U. (2008) The relationship between disaggregate energy
consumption and industrial production in the United States: an ARDL approach, Energy
Economics, 30, 2302–2313.
Schwarz, G. (1978), Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464.
Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto T. (1995), Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with
possibly integrated processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
An Analysis of Theories on Stock Returns
Ahmet Sekreter
Abstract
Objective in writing this article is to provide an overview of the theories that has been
developed for stock returns which is an important area of financial markets’ researches. Since
the researches in this field are very active for the past quarter, it is not possible to describe all
works that has been done in this area. Most important researches will be discussed without
going deeper in mathematical tools and theories.
15

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Empirical works have been showing that stock returns are predictable cross-sectional and by
time. The discussions about prediction of stock price behavior started with Markowitz with
his article –Portfolio Selection-. Markowitz won Nobel Prize in 1990 for his research about
portfolio theory. However he criticized by many economists since implementation of the
theory requires lots of effort to evaluate data and since it uses historical data the prediction
will not be accurate. In addition the assumption that stock returns are normally distributed is
not true in reality. Sharpe, Lintner, and Mossin independently developed a model which has
come to be known CAPM (capital asset pricing model) in 1964, 1965, and 1966 respectively.
Beta coefficient is a key parameter in CAPM world. Beta measures risk of an asset in relation
to the market such as S&amp;P500 or an alternative factor. Actually the CAPM is a simple model
which is based on sound reasoning and some of the assumptions -all investors have the same
information, information is costless, and there are no taxes transactions costs- are unrealistic
in market. APT (arbitrage pricing theory) presented for a better estimation for stock returns
than CAPM. CAPM is a modified theory while APT is a completely different model. APT’s
multiple factors provide a better indication of asset risk and a better estimate of expected
return. There are n-factors effecting stock returns in APT but the number of factors are
unknown. Furthermore CAPM and APT are single-period models. To get multi-period aspects
of market ICAPM was developed. After that CCAPM (consumption-oriented capital asset
pricing model) was introduced. It tried to explain behavior of stock returns by a logical
extension of APT. A long literature exist on prediction of stock market returns but especially
after the latest financial crisis these theories must be analyzed and suggested new ideas for
forecasting behavior of stock returns.
Keywords: Stock Returns, Markowitz, CAPM, APT, ICAPM, CCAPM, Fama-French 3-factor
model.
1.Theories
1.1.Markowitz Portfolio Selection
Empirical studies in finance show that forecasting stock returns is possible by developing
some models. Markowitz – as some people call Einstein of finance- developed an idea on
stock returns under some assumptions. Although some assumptions like ‘no taxes’,
‘information is available for everybody and it is costless’, ‘no transaction cost’ do not exist in
real world, the tools developed by him allow to measure the risk and return. An investor
wants to maximize returns for a given level of risk or wants to minimize risk for a given level
of return.
According to Markowitz Portfolio theory investors choose the optimum portfolios which lie
on this curve. An investor who can bear more risk choose portfolios that are on upper part of
the curve and investor who is a risk-averse choose portfolios that are lower part of the curve.
It was shown in Markowitz Portfolio selection that the variance of rate of returns is measure
of risk of return under some assumptions. The formula developed by Markowitz proved that
diversifying portfolio reduces the total risk.
Capital Asset Pricing Model
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is based on Markowitz Portfolio Theory and it
describes the relationship between the risk and return of a portfolio. The formula in CAPM is
the equation of SML (Security Market Line).
Ri: rate of a stock return
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Rm: rate of market return
β: cov(Ri,Rm)/ var(Rm)
Rf: risk-free rate
When beta is equal to zero expected return is equal to risk-free rate (Rf) and when beta is
equal to 1 it means that the expected return is equal to market return (Rm). By using simple
math the equation of the line above is found as follow:
Ri=Rf + β(Rm-Rf)
So in CAPM the rate of a stock return is defined as risk-free rate plus product of beta and
market risk premium (Rm-Rf). CAPM can be used for all stock after estimating beta.
Estimation of beta and market risk premium is the critical point in CAPM. Beta can be
calculated as daily, monthly or yearly and all give different betas. Calculation of different
time intervals gives also different betas and market risk premium also changes over time. The
required estimations can be found after collecting lots of historical data. Predicting future by
calculating
some
past
data
is
sometime
not
reliable.

2.Arbitrage Pricing Theory
"The APT is derived from the premises that asset returns follow a linear return generating
process, and that in well-functioning financial markets, there will be no arbitrage
opportunities. On the basis of these assumptions, one can show that there is an equilibrium
linear relationship between the returns on risky assets and a small set of economy-wide
common factors. While several macroeconomic variables do have some relationship with
different risky assets, the APT postulates that the pricing of risky assets depends only on the
set of variables whose influence is felt significantly by all risky assets together. This set of
variables is known as the common factors of the APT."( Otuteye, Eben)
The basic assumption of APT is based on the absence of arbitrage in the market. The returns
can be calculated if there is no arbitrage opportunity. Capital markets are perfectly
competitive and trend of investors always prefers more wealth to less wealth. APT is less
restrictive than CAPM in its assumptions. There is only factor in CAPM but in APT there are
n factors which affect the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return is formulated as
follow
E[R]=Rf + b1f1+b2f2+…+bnfn
bk: the sensitivity of the stock to the factor bk
fk: the risk premium for factor k
It is stated in APT that there are n factors however these factors are not defined and even the
number of factors are unknown. However it is reasonable because every stock can have
specific effects that affect the return rate. APT does not rely on stock market and it does not
deal with measure of the performance of market, instead of market it focuses on factors that
affecting price of stock. The factors in APT can be adapted to changes that influence stock
price and from this aspect it brings advantages to the user but determining these factors is not
easy since it requires great research.

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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

3.Intertemporal CAPM
CAPM was one of the most important developments in finance when it was introduced. It
became basis of many research papers. However it was started to criticize that it is a singleperiod model. The Intertemporal CAPM was an alternative for CAPM introduced by Robert
Merton which is a multi-period model. Merton claimed that since real interest rate, stock
market returns, inflation and therefore investment opportunity set can be changed after that
investors may want to hedge risks which they exposure. The demand on hedging causes a
change in the asset pricing equation. Merton stated in his model that since the model is based
on consumer-investor behavior it must be intertemporal, ICAPM is a linear model to state the
shifts of investments over time and predict investment opportunity set.
3.1.Consumption-Oriented the Capital Asset Pricing Model
Consumption-Oriented Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) is an extension of traditional
CAPM. CAPM is based on market portfolio’s return and it used it to understand behavior of
the return rate. In CAPM the prediction of future relies on market portfolio’s return. Beta in
CAPM measures sensitivity of stock return to the expected market return. CCAPM has the
same formula with CAPM only it differs from CAPM by explanation of beta. Beta in
CCAPM is defined as follow:
Consumption beta (βc)=
And formula for CCAPM is restated as follow:
Ri=Rf + βc(Rm-Rf)
Ri= expected return on risky asset i
Rf= implied risk-free rate
Rm= implied expected market return
βc= consumption beta of the risky asset i
The investors’ consumption growth and risk aversion determines the expected return of risky
asset and the risk premium. The consumption beta defined above provides the systematic risk
in CCAPM world. In CCAPM, an asset is more risky if consumption is low or savings are
high.
The consumption beta can be found by empirical works and statistical methods like finding
beta in CAPM.
The CCAPM, like CAPM, is based on only one parameter and it has been criticized because
of this issue. However the empirical works have shown that there are more than one affect
that influence the stock prices and return rates. The empirical works also have shown that the
CCAPM’s predictions are not supported by those results.
3.2.Fama and French Three Factor Model
The CAPM and CCAPM are trying to explain stock returns based on only one factor. The
APT and ICAPM are adding many factors that affecting stock returns but these factors are not
stated. Empirical works have shown that after testing CAPM, beta in CAPM can explain 70%
of the return in the market. Eugene Fama and Kenneth French tried to explain the rest of 30%
unexplained stock return by expanding capital asset pricing model. Fama and French expand
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CAPM by adding two more factors in the formula of traditional CAPM. In the empirical
works Fama and French found that the two classes of stocks are better than the others. The
value stocks have provided much better return than growth stocks that is stocks which have
high book to market ratio and the small stocks have provided much better than large stocks in
the market as a whole. After adding these two factors in capital asset pricing model the new
formula is as follow:
Ri=Rf+ β(Rm-Rf)+bs*SMB+bv*HML
Ri= expected return rate on risky asset i
β: the beta measure the sensitivity of stock return to the expected market return but this beta is
not same as beta in capital asset pricing model since in Fama-French 3 factor model there are
two more factors added into the formula.
Rf=risk-free interest rate
Rm= expected market return rate
SMB= small market capitalization minus big market capitalization
HML= high book to market ratio minus low
bs and bv= the coefficients of SMB and HML respectively. These coefficients are determined
by linear regression after defining SMB and HML.
4.Conclusion: Estimation of the Parameter Beta in Models
Beta is the only explanatory power in the CAPM and CCAPM. Beta is the only factor that
affecting the stock prices and return rates in these models. There are many factors in the
models the APT and ICAMP. Fama and French 3-factor model contains three factors which
influence the behavior of the return rates however beta is the factor that has the most
explanatory power in this model. Estimation of the parameter beta in models is very important
to get accuracy in predicting the stock prices and return rates. The chosen time interval causes
getting a different beta, and since stock returns can be evaluated daily, weekly, monthly, or
annually the chosen frequency also affects the accuracy of beta. Some empirical tests have
shown that 3 years time interval and annually evaluated stock returns give better results. Most
CAPM tests and et all have focused on cross sectional aspects of data. However the recent
researches have shown that investigating the conditional relationship between beta and return
gives better estimations under the assumption of time series analysis since beta is not stable
over time.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Anthony Kyereboah-Coleman, (2009), Portfolio Theory.
Douglas T. Breeden, (1979), An Intertemporal Asset Pricing Model with Stochastic
Consumption and Investment Opportunities.
Eugene Fama, Kenneth French, (1995), Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and
Returns.
Graeme West, (2006), An Introduction to Modern Portfolio Theory: Markowitz, CAP-M,
APT, and Black-Litterman.

19

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Gregory Cannor, Robert A. Korajczyk, (1992), The Arbitrage Pricing Theory and
Multifactors Models of Asset Returns.
Gur Huberman, Zhenyu Wang, (2005), Arbitrage Pricing Theory.
Harry Markowitz, (1952), Portfolio Selection.
James L. Davis, (2001), Explaining Stock Returns: A Literature Survey.
John Y. Campbell, Motohiro Yogo, (2006), Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability.
Jonathan W. Lewellen, (2000), On the Predictability of Stock Returns: Theory and Evidence.
Robert C. Merton, (1973), An Intemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model.
Internet Sources
www.wkipedia.org
www.portfoliosolutions.com/f-11.html
http://www.investopedia.com
http://www.bionicturtle.com/forum/threads/p1-t1-64-arbitrage-pricing-model-apt-versuscapm.5328/

The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey
Huseyin Kalyoncu1, Ilhan Ozturk2, Muhittin Kaplan1
1Meliksah University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 38010, Kayseri,
Turkey.
2Cag University, Faculty of Economics and Business,33800, Mersin, Turkey.
Email: hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr, ilhanozturk@cag.edu.tr, mkaplan@meliksah.edu.tr
Abstract
This paper attempts to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship and causality
between energy consumption and economic growth during 1960-2006 period for Turkey.
Johansen and Juselius cointegration method and vector error correction model (VECM) have
been employed to examine this issue. After finding cointegration among variables, a VECM is
estimated and the Granger causality tests were carried out based on a VECM. The results have
shown that there is no short-run causality in both energy consumption and GDP models. The
results also confirmed that there is unidirectional long-run causality among variables of
interest and the direction of long-run causality is running from per capita GDP to per capita
energy consumption. As a result, conservation hypothesis which postulates unidirectional
causality from economic growth to energy consumption is confirmed for Turkey. Taken
together, these empirical findings involve valuable information for policy makers.
Keywords: Energy consumption, Economic growth, Causality, Turkey
20

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                    <text>1st International Conference on Foreign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics
May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo

An Analytic Interpretation of Grammatical Phrases
Construing the English Articles
Asst.Prof.Dr.Azamat Akbarov
English Department, Education Faculty
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
aakbarov@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract: This paper studies the English article system from the perspective of
dialectics. The aim of the study is to expand the area of understanding the English
article system by showing that at the very elementary communicative level is more
relevantly indicated as a relational dialectical system rather than a simple binary one
as characterized in most traditional pedagogical grammar books. This research
attempts to reach this objective by interpreting such key metalingustic notions as
anaphoric generic uniqueness etc as well as the three main descriptors of the English
articles which involve article definite and indefinite For Plato dialogues or our Daily
communicational acts are fundamentally dialectical. Thus the base reasoning for his
research is that if we understand the Notion linked to dialectic or dialectical acts
better this will in turn help us comprehend our own dialogical acts in general and the
English articles as a key dialogical marker in particular.
Key Words: English articles, dialectic, definiteness, indefiniteness

Introduction
The English articles the and a/an are most often used grammatical elements but are also salient as one of
the most problematic areas in acquiring this language as a foreign language (Butler. 1999). A number of studies
attempt have been made hoping to clarify what aspects of the English article system make the learner of English
as a Foreign Language (EFL) have difficulty acquiring the system (Master. 1990: Song &amp; Park. 2001). The goal
of this research has been produced out of this line of pedagogical thought. The paper aims to extend the scope of
understanding the English article system by demonstrating that at the very elementary communicative level it is
more appropriately characterized as a relational dialectical system rather than a simple binary one as described in
most traditional pedagogical grammar books. Specifically, this study attempts to reach this goal by reinterpreting key metalinguistic notions of the English articles which have been commonly used in the literature
involving English grammar and linguistics.
This will be done from the perspective of the semantics of dialectics. By nature, this study is more
likely to pursue what Ellis (1997) calls practical knowledge as opposed to technical knowledge. As part of the
discussion about the Professional relationship between Second Language Acquisition (SLA) research and
language pedagogy, he characterizes the former as explicit while the latter as implicit. What he argues with the
technical knowledge which is obtained primarily by analytical and empirical work. On the other hand, practicing
professionals like doctors and teachers tend to rely more on the practical knowledge which is intuitive and
experiential.
In what follows, I will first briefly discuss in what respects this instrumental Notion of dialectic or
dialectical help extend the scope of our understanding the English articles. A few key descriptions such as
article, definite, indefinite and the like will then be analyzed.

On Dialectic
How has the nation dialectic or dialectical been defined in the literature? As Watson (1985 p 85) points
out. Its origin seems to date back to Plato‘s period. Dialectic is Plato‘s Word coming from ―dialegesthai‖ to talk
with and his works take the form of dialogues. As such the terms dialectic and dialogue are closely interrelated
concepts. Here the implication is that our daily communicational act is fundamentally dialectical, so if we
understand this notion better. This will in turn help us understand our own dialogical acts in general and the
English articles as a key dialogical marker in particular.
What follows are brief schematic descriptions of these terms. Which have been drawn selectively from
the Webster‘s Third New International Dictionary (1967). The nominal forms dialectic and dialectics are defined
in two respects. In one sense, they are often identified as the theory and practice of weighing and reconciling

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juxtaposed or contradictory arguments for the purpose of arriving at truth –especially through discussion and
debate. In another sense, and particularly on literature, they are often referred to as a type of systematic
reasoning that seeks to resolve a conflict. While both senses indicate a reality of tension or opposition between
two interacting forces or elements their ultimate purpose is directed toward obtaining truth and solving problems
through transforming or transcending.
Dialectics for Plato was used as a means of logical analysis or division of things and was expressed in
the form of representing both ―genera‖ (or Form in his view of universe) and species (or particular) (Stevenson.
1987). In Aristotle, dialectics was viewed as a method of arguing the different sides of any given problem. It was
also used as an art intermediate between rhetoric (thus, more symbolic, indefinite inclusive generic metaphoric
and less referential) and strict demonstration (thus more concrete or referential, specific, definite, and exclusive).
In the Kantian tradition, dialectics is used to account for paradoxical realities (i.e. both appearances and
illusions), and it thus deals with paralogisms (i.e. reasoning contrary to the rules of logic), antinomies and
transcendental ideas. Dialectics in this tradition becomes meaningful where these antithetical problems arise
through logical fallacies, perceptual errors or the endeavor to use the principles of the understanding applicable
only within experience for determination of such transcendental objects as the soul, the world and God.
In a slightly more developed form the Hegelian interpretation is spelled out as:


a logical development progressing from less to more comprehensive levels that on its subjective
side is the passage of thought from a thesis through an antithesis to a synthesis that in turn
becomes a thesis for further progressions ultimately culminating on the absolute idea and on its
objective side is an analogous development in the process of history and the cosmos.
(Webster‘s Dictionary.1967.p 623)

It is noteworthy that historically up to Hegel‘s use of dialectics. Its major function was the acquisition
of truth and resolution of conflicts in problems. For Marx in contrast, the dialectic is viewed more as a
conceptual tool responsible for bringing about some change or transformation. He expressed this Notion as:


the process of self-development or unfolding (as of an action, event, ideology, movement or
institution) through the stages of thesis, antithesis and synthesis in accordance with the laws of
dialectical materialism and the method that regards change in nature and history as taking place in
this way.
(Webster‘s Dictionary. 1967.p.623)

For him reality is a changing process to be decoded by the human mind.
The adjectival forms dialectic and dialectical are typically represented with the following characteristic
semantic features. They are (a) marked by a dynamic inner tension, conflict and interconnectedness of parts of
elements: (b) they are used to denote the idea of mutuality and reciprocity: (c) they are used to refer to the acts of
practicing, being devoted to, or employing a dialectic and (d) as regarding something from the point of view of a
dialectic.
In summary the dialectic has been used as a conceptual catch-all to account for various paradoxical and
co-existing aspects inherent in human reasoning and practices. Dialectics has been as both theory and practice as
indicating a solution, recognition or acknowledgement of conflict contradiction, oxymoron and the like. This use
of dialectics is responsible for denoting involves the recognition of change, difference, distinction, and the like
over time.
In fact because of its potential utility in constructing social theory the concept of dialectics has been
given increased attention by psychologists (Gusfield, 1989: Georgoudi, 1984: Perin-banayagam, 1991). In
reviewing many of the social psychological studies on this subject, Georgoudi (1984) concludes that dialectics
has been employed not just at the level of theory construction but also at a metatheoretical level and at the level
of methodological application. He has also noted that dialectics. In its most general sense is viewed as a process
of relating nearly all aspects of human activity. Thus it is a form of mediation with a wide range of applications
and nearly unlimited theoretical and practical potential. In other words, its unstated implications are widely and
systematically disturbed to almost all sectors of the human and social sciences.
As briefly illustrated above, the implications of the term dialectic are profound in terms of their
philosophical, psychological and methodological applications. Let me point out in what sense the notion of
dialectic can be helpful for one to understand the English article system, particularly from a pedagogical
standpoint. First as seen in Plato‘s view of dialectic the English articles signify both generic or specific meaning
and the articles are obviously key dialogical devices. Thus the system reflects the contradictory nature of relation
between a whole and its part as well as the processual nature of our human praxis or action. Second similarly to
the dialectic as a theoretical concept the semantic root of the English article connotes ―relation‖ which will be

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May 5-7 2011 Sarajevo
discussed further later in this paper. Third just as the notion of dialectic entails system has an antithetical
structure (i.e. definite and indefinite) The system is used for meaning differentiation and construction in
dialogical context In sum it seems obvious that there exists a certain conceptual parallel between what we have
seen about dialectic and the English articles.

Key Descriptions of the Articles
Let me start with the three basic descriptors of the English articles which involve ―definite‖ ―indefinite‖
and article. These terms have been commonly attributed and related to the usage of the articles ―the‖ and ―a/an‖.
Although commonly used these three descriptors have not sustained a rigorous theoretical analysis by EFL/ESL
researchers. Typically these researchers have simply followed the lead of many earlier theorists. Both
philosophers and linguists who from a very different set of assumptions in the philosophy of science have
usually resorted to using them as simple referring devices for ―the‖ and ―a/an‖.
For instance Russell a leading philosopher of the logical positivist school28 is a typical case in point. As
cited by Rosenberg an Travis (1971, p.167), Russell (1973) used these terms to distinguish different modes of
philosophical description:


A ―description‖ may be of two sorts definite and indefinite (or ambiguous). An indefinite description is a
phrase of the form ―a so-and-so,‖ and a definite description is a phrase of the form ―the‖ so-and-so (in the
singular), (original emphasis)

A similar but more specific usage of these terms has been proposed by Bickerton (1985):


In English ―definite‖ really means presumed known to the listener whether by prior knowledge (the man
you met yesterday) uniqueness in the universe (the sun is setting) uniqueness in a given setting (The
battery is dead-cars do not usually have more than one battery) or general knowledge that a named class
exists ( The dog is the friend of man): and ― indefinite‖ really means presumed unknown to the listener
whether by absence of prior knowledge (A man you should meet is Mr. Blank) nonexistence of a
nameable referent (Bill is looking for a wife) or nonexistence of any referent (George couldn‘t see an
aardvark) (p.147)

Accordingly, authors of English grammar books usually use these notions as received categories. They
assume the word ―the‖ is responsible for definiteness and the words ―a/an‖ are responsible based on simple clear
and straightforward categorical meanings, it has had a broad pedagogical appeal. However because of its
theoretical simplicity this classification has also been problematic and misleading to many students. The fact is
that ―the, a/an‖ or no use of these words is found in the same or a similar communicative context without a
substantial difference in meaning (e.g. the tiger, a tiger, and tigers). This could thus lead one to confusion about
what it means to be definite and indefinite. A separate descriptive analysis of these terms will, I believe, show
that a more relational meaning of these articles is warranted.
Article
The term ―article‖ is probably the most common descriptor used in reference to the words ―the‖ and
―a/an‖ and is used either when referring separately to one or the other of these articles or to both as a common
category of grammatical elements A clue to the meaning of this term may be found by looking into its historical
origins its ancestral forms found both in Greek and Latin, are arthron and articulus, respectively. They are said to
be no more than the ordinary words for link or joint (Lyons, 1977) and appear to be analogous to relation or
connection.
Note also that in the early Greek language no sharp distinction was drawn in terms of the forms or
syntactic and semantic functions between demonstrative pronouns the definite and indefinite articles and the
relative pronouns. As Herndon (1976, p.10) states, the term ―syndesmoi‖ was at first applied to them all, and it
was chosen, presumably, because they were all regarded as connectives of various kinds. The primary function
of these various words is based on notions of linking, connecting, and other relating schema.29
28

From Bertrand Rusell, (1919). Introduction to mathematical philosophy. London: George Allen and Unwin Ltd. Chapters
X and XI,pp.167-180.
29
For a full discussion of the theoretical differences between these usages, see Hawkins (1978), where he makes specific
analyses from a particular theoretical linguistic viewpoint.

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These relational concepts are virtually all time-bound in that relating one thing with another requires
time: namely a diachronic relation. Note also that the verb form ―articulate‖ is related to the notion ―article‖ in a
morphological sense. From this we can further speculate that the use of the articles as an act of articulation or
saying is itself an act of relating in a dialogical sense.
The Definite
When turning our attention to the notion of definite we are initially led to question why this adjective is
prefixed to the noun article (i.e. as the name of ―the‖ which is an arbitrary array of written signs or that of aural
markings) and is used together as in the definite article. A basic level of understanding this relation may,
however, already be found in some of our usual dictionary meanings of this term. Some of these meanings
include: (a) exact limits: (b) precision and clarity in meaning: (c) explicitness and certainty: (d) limitation and
specificity. From these lexical entries one can sense that the meaning of ―definite‖ is assumed to be something
obvious and self-evident which implies a type of confinement or a line-drawing and conversely excludes
something vague and unintelligible.
This dictionary definition informs us that things or phenomena can be ontologically absolute while at
the same time remaining somewhat less defined. In fact, for us to be definite about something (or to define
something clearly) has been a central part of our knowledge what is definable through reasoning becomes the
source of knowledge as the definite or absolute Truth. He symbolized the truth with the concept ―Forms‖ in the
sense that they are ―more real than material thing for they do not change or decay‖ (Stevenson 1987, p.29). More
specifically in relation to the referential function of a word (i.e. a word used to refer to truly many different
individual referents). Plato thought that corresponding to each usage of the word there is one Form, which makes
the particular individual referents meaningful entries in terms of its idealistic formal or symbolic resemblance to
the referents.
This formal and universal resemblance connotes the characterization of a class of certain entities by a
process of objective definition. Moreover, for Plato, ―only this intellectual acquaintance with the ―Forms‖ can
really count as knowledge since only what fully exits can be fully known‖ (Stevenson 1987, p.29). In relation to
a common interpretation of Plato, Hergenhahn notes that:


Before being placed in the body at birth the soul dwells in pure and complete knowledge. Thus, all
human souls know everything before entering the body. Upon entering the body the knowledge of soul
begins to be contaminated by sensory information (198,3 p.34)

This implies that if humans naively accept what they experience through the senses they are doomed to
live a life of opinion and ignorance. For this reason Plato‘s concern was with reaching an idealistic state of
―Forms‖ responsible for uncontaminated human mind and society through education. In this regard, the most
convincing illustration of his theory of Forms comes from the Euclidean geometry, which Stevenson has
described as follows:



Consider how it deals with lines circles and squares but may always have some irregularity. Theorems
concerning these ideal objects-straight lines without thickness perfect circle et-are proved with absolute
certainty by logical arguments. Here we have indubitable knowledge of timeless objects which are the
patterns that material objects imperfectly resemble (1978, p.29)

In light of this, one can think about the geometrical concept of point, which in a perceptual sense is
thought of as standing in its own right, but which is in fact a meaningful construct only if related to other
geometrical notions like line. Its understanding requires formal conceptualization. Plato‘s conception of
idealistic knowledge has to do with this kind of geometrical definition of knowledge that he indefinable (thus
indefinite and perceptually contaminated) point in its own ontogenesis becomes definable (thus definite) only in
relation to its totality the line. It is in the process of becoming definable that things become definite for us. In fact
Plato‘s conception of knowledge is typically dialectic.
Thus, following Plato‘s, we become both knowledgeable and ignorant by having a means to define it is
very improbable to speak of a ―definite point‖ as found in a geometrical sense. When we see a given point on a
geometrical plain, it may be viewed as having its own definite and obvious confinement but it is clear that this is
not the case because a point in its own right is theoretically impossible. In the mathematical word (e.g. the

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Mobius strip, numerical entities divided by zero, etc.) the matter of definition is similarly not posited as an
absolute
and
separate
notion.
This does not mean however that our acts of defining are always meaningless but that the definite
becomes meaningful only in relation. What appears as definite does not necessarily make it so and the term
definite with its dictionary significance is plausible only when the usage presupposes an indefinitely-given or
taken-for-granted condition. In effect this term must be seen in essence to presume an indefinitely-given as well
as a totality against which our acts of defining limiting confining specifying identifying and idealizing occur.
Thus even at a very general definitional level our uses of ―definite‖ and ―indefinite‖ are essentially relational and
dialectic.
When judged from only dictionary meanings, the concept of exclusiveness may be seen as semantically
analogous to definiteness. However, Hawkins (1978), in an apparent reversal, has characterized the grammatical
role of the definite article as inclusiveness and that of the indefinite article as exclusiveness on the basis of his
semantic and pragmatic analysis. His argument for the grammaticality of the definite and indefinite article, based
on pragmatic premises, is probably quite appropriate in the context of his analytical and philosophical approach.
But based on the two apparently opposing definitions we might infer that things or phenomena can be thought of
as both ontologically absolute and not so at the same time in that the definite or the absolute connotes both
exclusion (by the criteria of its lexical meanings) and inclusion (by the criteria of Hawkins‘ linguistic analysis).
Here again, one cannot ignore the dialectic.
The Indefinite
With the notion ―indefinite‖ one may also question why the adjective attaches itself so naturally to the
noun article (i.e. as the name of ―a/an‖) when they are used together like indefinite article. The lexical entries for
this term involve (a) Having no exact limits or having no limits at all (B) not precise sharp and clear in meaning
and outline vague: (c) not sure or positive inexplicit and uncertain and (d) not limiting and specifying not
referring to the specific. Given that all these descriptions imply no exclusion a prototype meaning of
indefiniteness may be said to be that of ―inclusiveness‖. As stated earlier this is contradistinctive to Hawkins‘s
(1978) generalization about the grammatical function of the indefinite articles in terms of ―exclusiveness‖. This
apparent contradictory nature of the English articles as related to their mate languages may be a partial
explanation for many non-native speakers‘ difficulty and confusion in mastering them.
The fundamental meanings of these attributive adjectives presuppose the postponement or reservation
of the act of defining. They are also suggestive of a certain contingency which requires further action. Having no
limits implies that, whatever it means the meaning is to be open. This openness to contingency gives rise to the
question of motive, potential and intention to be defined, or on its way to becoming definite. All in all, the
―indefinite‖ as a concept can be viewed as reflecting a mental state or process which has not been fully acted out,
but is ready to be acted out. Because it is paradigmatically open it in some sense signifies a syntagmatic (or
simply temporal) induction and foretells a sense of meaning-making or of becoming definite.

Other Metalanguages of the Articles
What follows is an attempt to reinterpret some descriptive terms that have commonly been used in
analyzing English articles usages. There are quite a number of ―classificatory notions‖ which are reflected in our
common usages of the articles and which form another major class of metalanguages about the English articles.
Some of these most commonly used notions which are used to describe our various communicative functions of
the English articles include the following: (a) deictic or demonstrative use: (b) back-pointing or anaphoric use:
(c) forward-pointing or cataphoric: (d) uniqueness: (e) communal sharing: (f) generic and specific: and (g)
endophora or in-text reference and exphora or out-text reference.
It should be noted at the outset that a general and common feature of all these categories can be described
as ‗the communicative act of pointing.‘ The key feature of the articles has generally been interpreted as being
dualistic and mutually exclusive. This has been the case, I contend, because our treatment of the grammatical
aspects of the articles has usually been restricted to a within-sentence analysis. In order to have been better
understanding about the articles, I feel that we need to extend to scope of analysis to the much broader context of
communicative act. What follows is thus discussed from a communicative perspective which involves all forms
of human actions reflecting one‘s psycho-social-cultural history.

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Deictic
The notion of ‗‘deictic‘‘ along with its etymological link with ‗‘deixis‘‘ is analogous to the philosophical
notion of indexical expression (Crystal, 1986). And its literal meaning is pointing or indication. It should be renoted that a major function of the definite article has been understood as revealing an indicative or determining
role, not unlike that of deixis. Lyons (1977) states that deixis refers to the variety of grammatical and lexical
features ―which relate utterance‘‘ (p. 636). Here note that the essential features of deixis are also defined as
relational: in other words at the level of identifying which is linked to which the relational act must have a
context in order to make sense. This act necessarily involves both ―agency‖‘ (i.e. who relates) and ―object‖ (e.g.
enactive, iconic, or symbolic) we are to relate and thereby implies that a relational act arises from within an
instrumental context.
From this interpretation of the term ‗‘deixis‘‘ one is able to derive at least two meanings namely what is
pointing as inner motive—the pointer or intention and what is being pointed to—outer evidence or actualization
of pointing. The nature of indication itself is not a simple mechanical pointing behavior but is a relational,
intentional and psychological gesture mediating between pointer and pointee. It is this dual reality of a pointing
act that, I content, can be characterized as being dialectical and dialogical. More specifically we may say that
deixis entails a double dialectic: a relation between intention and a deictic sign: and a relation between the sign
and its referent in actual communication. In many cases of human communication the second relation turns out
to be reflexive in that the referent itself is language. In this sense language is our existential reference.
―Deixis‘‘ involves not only the characteristic feature of the demonstrative pronouns, but also tense and
person, and a number of other syntactically relevant features in the context-of-an utterance (Thavenius, 1983;
Wilkins, 1985). According to Lyons (1977), it also refers to the philosophical notion of ostension or ostensive
definition. It is worth nothing that ostensive, deictic, and demonstrative are all based upon the idea of
identification or drawing attention to something in a communicative space by pointing. So too is Hardwick‘s
(1977) term ―indexical‖, which has been employed in the recent philosophical literature roughly in the sense that
we are assigning deictic to discursive acts (Lyons, 1977, p.637).
As such, the notion of deixis is understood as an indicative function which is conceptually similar to the
acts of pointing, locating and identifying. Lyons accounts for the act of pointing as follows:


The canonical situation-of-utterance is egocentric in the sense that the speaker by virtue of being the
speaker casts himself in the role of ego and relates everything to his viewpoint. He is at the zero-point
of the spatiotemporal co-ordinates of what is referred to as the deictic context (1977 p. 638)

What is insightful here is the use of the notion ‗‘zero-point‘‘ because it is conceptually similar to the notion
of indefinite. Specifically, it does not seem to be a mere co-incidence that this egocentric sense of zeroness in
one‘s utterance is initiated with an indefinite expression such as ‗once upon ―a‖ time, there lived ―a‖ farmer in
―a‖ village. It appears to indicate a speaker‘s self-awareness of where he or she is located in a given discourse
space. In other words, the speaker knows that the story should start from scratch or nothingness. Or the speaker
is likely to assume that the hearer knows ―nothing‖ about what he or she is going to talk about. Although it may
sound speculative the phrase ―zero-point‖ above seems to connote the meaning of nothing.
In addition as it is found in the earliest stage of a child‘s cognitive development deixis, in terms of its
attention drawing property, is the most rudimentary identifying act in a child‘s communicative conduct. In
summary English article usage when related to the metalinguistic notion of deixis, as with many others, reflects a
dynamic and dialectical reality that is often missed when we treat the articles as simply either definite or
indefinite.
Anaphoric
The notion of ‗‘anaphoric use‘‘ or ‗‘back-pointing‘‘ refers to the case where an entity in a narrative text
which often occurs first with the indefinite article ―a/an‖ is identified again in that text by replacing ―a/an‖ with
―the‖ to indicate its reappearance in the discourse. For instance in the sentence ―Bill bought a TV and a radio,
but he returned the radio‖ ―the‖ in ―the radio‖ is explained as revealing the anaphoric function.
What counts here is that the signification of ‗‘the‘‘ is predicated on the precondition of ―a‖. In this context
the use of ―a‖ as an indefinite expression is viewed as a necessary condition for the latter use of ―the‖. In other
words ―the‖ becomes meaningful by virtue of ―a‖. Moreover their linguistic value becomes meaningful only
when they are understood in temporal context because the notion of presupposition is a time-bound one. This
anaphoric usage reflects the temporal coordination or history-sharing function which is so important between
interlocutors in their broader mutual meaning-making and understanding processes. Accordingly here again it is

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apparent that ―a‖ and ―the‖ are not really separate linguistic mechanisms or entities but are rather constitutive
semantic poles forming an interactive whole between interlocutors. Moreover since this function can be expected
to be acquired much later in conceptual and/or linguistic development than the simple deictic or indicative act.
Cataphoric
The ―cataphoric‖ use or ―forward-pointing use‖ of the articles is seen in the case where linguistic identity
is established by the post-modification that follows the noun. For example it involves the use of ―the‖ in the
sentence ―Bill returned the radio he bought yesterday‖ as well as in the sentence ―The‖ olives of Turkey (or
which Turkey produces) are the best in the world. Insofar as the fundamental meaning of the sentence retains its
central intent or sense the first sentence can be interpreted as ―Bill bought a radio, and he returned it or the
radio.‖ As seen in each interpretation we can infer or presume that at least part of the meaning of ―the‖ in the
examples connotes the indefinite meaning which the indefinite article ―a‖ yields.
The same reasoning which was developed in the discussion of the anaphoric function above seems to be
at work here with the cataphoric function of the articles. What matters here is the matter of explicit observability
or of implicit sharedness between interlocutors. While not directly observable what appears to be functioning is a
certain dialectical interaction between the definite and the indefinite. The ―the‖ in ―Bill returned the radio he
bought yesterday‖ may be thought of as only a grammatical choice but its significance derives from the
recognition of the existential presupposition of ―a‖ as connected in ―Bill bought a radio yesterday.‖ Moreover, in
a similar context, if Bill bought more than one radio, it would also be possible to say that ―Bill returned ―a‖ radio
he bought yesterday.‖ Thus here again the definite and the indefinite meanings cannot simply be prefixed
grammatical notions but are determined in actual communicative contexts, and choice for their usage seems to be
determined mostly on dialogical grounds. In effect this dialectical schema of the articles is structured through
various and processual dialogical experiences rather than the result of a simple instructional knowing of the
meaning of the words and grammar rules.
Uniqueness
The notion of ―uniqueness‖ refers to the definite usage where an object or a group of objects is
interpreted as revealing, characteristically, oneness and wholeness at the same time: for instance, the stars, the
earth, the world, the sea, the North Pole, the equator, the Reformation, the human race, etc. In other words, its
significance arises where referents are understood to be unique in a given context: the sun, the moon, the kitchen,
the car, etc. This notion indicates the existence of only one thing either as an individual entity or as a kind. The
definite expression seen in this category may be indicated as presuming a native speaker‘s ontological mental
index regarding a specific referent. For instance, in the case of the earth, we may say that the passage indicates
the native English speaker‘s recognition that something as a referent exists which is named ―earth‖ (i.e. the
awareness of existential reality) and that the speaker learned to call it ―the‖ earth as a conventional label to
indicate a common awareness of the referent. In this schema, the use of ―the‖ requires both a self and others:
namely, without you as another, the use of ―the‖ turns out to be meaningless. We learn in this way that the
meaning of uniqueness and the related use of an article is conditioned (or becomes significant) by a speaker in
the face of a hearer.
A native speaker‘s competence in this aspect of language, as with other aspects appears as
internalization and increasing awareness in the context of communicative socialization processes. Here again,
considering traditional language learning settings, where one-way instruction has been preferred over actual
communication it is understandable why it is so difficult for learners to develop this kind of social sense, and
have so much difficulty with the articles. This social sense can be properly acquired only through actual
dialogical (i.e. social) experiences, rather than in simple monological, instructional acts.
Situational/Communal Sharing
Compared to the uniqueness expression the notion of ―situational or communal sharing‖ refers to article
usage which is more adaptable to situational variations. The use of an article in this sense does not necessarily
signify the uniqueness of the referent. The usual examples in this category are: the radio, the television and the
telephone in a given social setting. In a similar way to what was discussed previously, I content that the
expression, ―the radio‖ becomes intelligible only when interlocutors either explicitly admit that there actually is
a radio both as a thing and as a word (i.e. a classical reference problem). Hence, when one says ―the radio‖ he or
she presupposes the ontology of its referent as well as the existence of a meaningful symbol.

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It should be noted, however that while this type of referential function is necessary in most
communicative discourse acts. It is not sufficient. The referent which the noun phrase indicates is usually in a
social context, and as such it is obvious that its referential reality varies from context to context. For instance, in
the case of the phrase ―ten minutes before ―the‖ hour‖, we all know that the noted temporal referent is relative to
the assumed time referent of the hour. Whether we are talking about a physical referent or an imaginary referent
it is clear that the definite expression is contingent upon the existential cognitive index, which is
characteristically adaptable to input, but which retains certain indefinite properties.
Generic and Specific
The ―generic‖ and ―specific‖ usages of the English articles refer to Noun Phrases (NPs) preceded by
―the‖, ―a/an‖ or ―the zero‖ article so that each reveals either the genericity or the specificity of the nominal entity
in a context. A generic expression refers to what is general or typical for a whole class of objects. In the
sentence, ―The tiger is a beautiful animal‖ it means that ―the‖ indicates the class of tigers, and not simply one
individual member of the class. This sentence is thus understood as expression essentially the same meaning as
the following sentences: ―Tigers are beautiful animals‖ on the one hand and ―A tiger is a beautiful animal‖ on
the other. Traditional English pedagogical grammar books usually describe such sentence as having a common
property of genericity simply taking their formal or morphological differences for granted without any plausible
explanation. Accordingly, they are understood the mean virtually the same thing. Moreover almost all informants
of native English speakers cannot find any meaning difference among the three sentences above nor can they
explain ―why so?‖
To recapitulate the generic expression represents the concept or idea which is generally attributable to
certain entities pervading all members of a given class. As shown in the previous examples while the dialectical
phenomenon is self-evident in this function of the English articles, questions have rarely been raised about what
this kind of semantic contradiction means in language pedagogy. Thus, what seems to be necessary to be
equipped with some meaningful ideas concerning how to explain it to the student?
In effect what I content here particularly in terms of seeing the article system as a dialectical relational
system is that genericity as semantic representation of ―the‖ NP, ―a/an‖ NP and NPs is embodied along the line
of semantic continuum between the definite and the indefinite. This in turn implies that ―the‖ tends to appear
along the definite end of this continuum and that ―a/an‖ along that of the indefinite. Moreover NPs can then be
viewed as a certain entity appearing somewhere in the middle. One may argue that seeing articles in this way is
only speculative at most. But I would rather argue that this interpretive schema is meaningful in that it possibly
offers a coherent way of explaining the varying nature of the English article usage both for the student and the
teacher. The bottom line here is that until we have a better one, we should dig something out hoping that it‘s
better than nothing.
A specific expression in contrast represents the entities rather directly as seen in such sentences as
―Look at the tiger‖ or ―ask a boy in this group‖ and does so especially in the context where both interlocutors
have specific knowledge about the referent. Hence, generally speaking, when representing a referent with its
related NP, the generic expression reveals an indirect ―symbolic reference‖ (i.e. the referent does not have to be
real, and moreover the referents that the interlocutors may have in mind are not necessarily identical): a specific
expression reveals a direct symbolic reference in that both the speaker and the hearer are required to experience a
common shared meaning in conjunction with a given referent. Here again, under this re-interpreted theoretical
schema. I content that the locus of linguistic control that determines either the genericity or specificity of
meaning is not in the language terms (i.e. ―the‖, ―a/an‖, or ―zero article‖) but in the degree of referent sharing
between interlocutors.
Endophora and Exophora
Two more theoretical terms which appear to capture the relational properties of the English articles but
which are also often seen in the study of pronouns are known as ―endophor‖ and ―exophora‖. According to
Thavenus (1938)
 A speaker will use pronouns to refer in two ways: he can refer to something that is mentioned in the
conversation and the reference is then textual or ‗endophoric‘; or he can refer to something that has not
been mentioned, but that can be retrieved from what can be perceived in the situational setting or from
the speaker‘s and listener‘s shared knowledge and experience. (p. 140)
He calls the latter case an example of situational or exophoric reference. Halliday and Hasan similarly
introduce the term endophoric ―as a general name for reference within the text‖ (1976, p 33) but for them

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endophoric covers both anaphoric and cataphoric reference (or forward-pointing) article uses, these two
functional categories of English pronouns also manifest the relational nature of language use and modes of
human thinking.

CONCLUSION
In order to isolate the dialectical aspects of the English article system study has attempted to reinterpret
key metalinguistic terms concerning the system. I have tried to show that even at the grammatical level when
viewed within the context of various metalanguages the articles are best seen as a relational and dialectical
system. This dialectical system I content, can be seen as ―a higher system‖ (just as in the structuralists‘ world
view) which controls the interactive processes (i.e both syntagmatic and paradigmatic forces or both mutually
inclusive and exclusive). This higher system which may be represented as a symbolic sign of
―(IN)DEFINITENESS,‖ suggest that it be viewed in the holistic, communicative, relational context rather than
solely within a somewhat limited grammatical intra-sentential and word-centered one.
The rationale for my suggestion is not unlike our understanding that phonemic reality becomes more
meaningful at the level of morphology and morphological reality at the level of syntax and so on. These ideas are
illustrative of an understanding of our human language and communicative system as a multi-leveled and
somewhat hierarchical meaning system in which the higher and more inclusive levels of meaning supersede,
elaborate and constrain the lower and preceding ones. This mutually exclusive but at the same time codeterministic characteristic is a very essential feature of human language system. This idea was recognized some
years ago by the structural linguist Roman Jacobson (1968), who identified the human sound system in this
matter.30
Moreover this higher system is also indicative of our broader and more pervasive mental processes. One
can find it not only in our language use but also in all of our psycho-social acts of meaning making. Although
this argument requires much lengthy discussion. I wish to note briefly how our use of ―the‖ which usually
presupposes the existence of ―a/an‖ can be seen as revealing a form of higher order metacognitive functioning.
Specifically the use of one in relation to the other reflects our mode of metacognition (i.e. thinking about
thinking) which presupposes a continuation of discourse and continuous meaning specification. This kind of
metacognition is what makes text cohesion and coherence (i.e. meaning making and communication) possible in
a given dialogical contest.
Bruner‘s (1986) understanding of the semantics of human expressions while not explicitly stated in
relation to the use of the English articles is conceptually congruent with the current argument:


The relation of words or expressions to other words or expressions constitutes along with reference the
sphere of meaning. Because reference rarely achieves the abstract punctiliousness, a ―singular‖,
―definite referring expression‖ is always subject to ―polysemy‖ and because there is no limit on the
ways in which expressions can relate to one another, meaning is always undetermined ambiguous. To
make sense in language as David Olson argued persuasively some years ago, always requires an ―act of
disambiguation.‖ (p. 64)

In effect, this act of disambiguation is a most fundamental metacognitive function that is inherent in our
cognitive activities and involves the various processes of differentiation, identification, definition, determination,
etc. The articles often called determiners or grammatical markers, by grammarians and linguists can thus also
and more importantly be viewed as a dialectical and semantically coherent system of symbols which not only
reflects our cognitive and communicative contexts but may serve the more active function of constructing
meaning in these contexts.

30

Roman Jakobson`s (1968) theory of phonology development is based on his distinctive feature analysis (or phonemic
distinction in general) of the sound systems of many different languages. A central theme of the theory is that the pattern of
phonological development is systematic in a relational sense.

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Perinbanayagam, R. S. (1991). Discursive act. New York. NY: Walter de Gruyter, Inc.
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Education. 8(2), 23-44
Stevenson, L. (1987). Seven theories of human nature: Christianity, Freud, Lorenz, Marx, Sartre, Skinner, Flato.
Oxford University Press.
Thavenius, C. (1983). Referential pronouns in English conversation. Lund: Lund University Press.
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communicative approach to language teaching. Oxford University Press.

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                    <text>2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo

An Application of American Customer Satisfaction Index (Acsi) Government
Model to Health Services In Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Teoman DUMAN
Faculty of Economics
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
tduman@ibu.edu.ba
Elif ÖZTÜRK
Faculty of Economics
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
oztrkelf@hotmail.com
Muris MESETOVĠC
Faculty of Economics
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Muris.mes@gmail.com
Haris HOJKURĠC
Faculty of Economics
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
hhojkuri@yahoo.com
Ahmet KANTÜRK
Faculty of Economics
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Akanturk85@yahoo.com
Zafer KONAKLI
Faculty of Economics
International Burch University
Bosnia and Herzegovina
zaferkonakli@yahoo.com

Abstract: The purpose of this research is to test the relationships between expectations, service
quality, satisfaction, complaints and citizen trust in the context of public health services in
Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) government
model is used as the research framework in this study. Initially proposed by Fornell, Johnson,
Anderson, Cha and Bryant (1996), ACSI model is the most well-known customer satisfaction
model in the US and in most parts of the world. As part of the proposed framework, public
perceptions of service quality, expectations, satisfaction, complaints and citizen trust were
measured for public health services with a self administered questionnaire. 212 completed
questionnaires were used in the data analysis. Research results show that service process, service
quality and satisfaction peceptions are main indicators of citizen trust for public health services in
Sarajevo.
Keywords: American Customer Satisfaction Index, Public Health Services, Bosnia and
Herzegovina

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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo

Introduction
Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country with 4.6 million population. The country is composed of 10
cantons. The Sarajevo canton, which houses the central government, has around 423,000 population. The
Public Institution Medical Centre of the Sarajevo Canton is the largest institution in Bosnia and Herzegovina
providing primary health care to locals living in Sarajevo canton. The institution has 9 organizational units
comprising the main building and associate localities (family medicine clinics), with the total of 2186
employees, out of which 1761 are medical staff, and 425 administrative-technical staff. According to the
official statistics the institution served 3,202,081 patients and provided 8,934,285 primary health care services
in 2009. As the effects of devastating war in 1990s is disappearing in all aspects of life, studies are needed to
understand people‘s perceptions of recovery especially in terms of public services. Research studies about
public‘s perceptions of health services in Bosnia and Herzegovina is necessary for future planning but are
also very limited in scope. The purpose of this research therefore is to measure the relationships between
public‘s expectations, service quality, satisfaction, complaints and citizen trust perceptions in the context of
public health services in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI)
government model is used as the research framework in this study.

Satisfaction Theory and Measurement
Perceived overall satisfaction is defined as ―fulfillment response, the degree to which the level of
fulfillment is pleasant or unpleasant‖ (Oliver, 1997, p.28). Marketing scholars usually agree that consumers
compare their product performance perceptions with some standard to reach satisfaction evaluations (Oliver,
1997). The standards used by consumers might be their expectations, values, past experiences or benefits
received by other consumers (Fournier ve Mick, 1999). The famous expectancy-disconfirmation theory of
consumer satisfaction suggests that disconfirmation results from comparisons of expectations and product
performace where positive disconfirmation occurs if product performance evaluations exceeds expectations
while negative disconfirmation occurs when product performance evaluations falls short of expectations
(Oliver, 1980, p.208). While developing expectations about products, consumers might use ideal standards,
same or similar products, market promises and industry norms (Barsky, 1992; Woodruff &amp; Gardial, 1996).
Spreng et al. (1996, p.17) suggested that ―expectations are beliefs about the likelihood that a product is
associated with certain attributes, benefits and outcomes.‖ Expectancy-disconfirmation model of consumer
satisfaction represents a cognitive view where consumers are thought to make rational judgments to make
their evaluations. Later theories of consumer satisfaction proposed that consumers‘ affective states are also
important parts of satisfaction evaluations. Research showed later that affect was a separate and significant
antecedent of satisfaction (Dube-Rioux, 1990; Mano and Oliver, 1993; Oliver, 1994, 1997; Westbrook &amp;
Oliver, 1991).
One of the main predictors of consumers‘ satisfaction evaluations is consumers‘ quality
perceptions. Zeithaml (1988, p.5) defined perceived quality of a product as ―the consumer‘s judgment about
the superiority or excellence of a product.‖ Service quality relates to consumers‘ evaluations of the services
and defined as ―global judgment or attitude, relating to the superiority of the service‖ (Parasuraman, Zeithaml
and Berry, 1988 p.16). Similar to disconfirmation theory of consumer satisfaction, service quality theory
suggests that consumers use their expectations when they make judgments about the quality of products.
Researchers argue that consumer satisfaction represents an end result of a consumption experience while
service quality serves as a cognitive evaluation of the superioriority of the product against others. To this end,
service quality is considered an indicator of consumer satisfaction.

American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) Government Model
One of the well-known models of consumer satisfaction was proposed by Fornell, Johnson, Anderson, Cha
and Bryant (1996). In their American Customer Satisfaction Index Model (ACSI), Fornell and his colleagues
proposed that overall customer satisfaction is a result of customer expectations, perceived quality and perceived
value. In this model, satisfaction acts as a mediator between these constructs and customer complaints and customer
loyalty. These researchers proposed that their model of consumer satisfaction was an overall measurement of a firm‘s

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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
market offering rather than an evaluation of a specific transaction. In this form, the ACSI model was primarily
measuring private sector transactions and a modified version was necessary for public agencies. In a later version of
the ACSI model, Fornell and his colleagues proposed ACSI government model (ACSI, 2010). This model is shown
in Figure 1. As shown in the figure, customer satisfaction for government agencies is influenced by customer
expectations and perceived service quality. According to the model, perceived service quality is a function of the
service process, information received, customer service and website. Consequences of satisfaction are customer
complaints ot citizen trust toward public services.

Figure 1:
The
American
Customer
Satisfactio
n Index
Government Model

Health Services Research
Customer satisfaction is an indication of success for every business today. Satisfied customers turn to be
loyal customers who are main income generators for most businesses. Customer satisfaction is more important for
service businesses especially where the nature of the service is highly technical and difficult to understand for service
recipients. In such services, higher satisfaction is likely to turn to repeat business. For government agencies, fewer
complaints and higher levels of citizen trust are possible with higher satisfaction with these services. Research shows
that programs to increase customer satisfaction and decrease consumer complaints have significant effects on
hospital financial performance (Howard, 1999). Research also suggest that customers who are encouraged to
complain show higher satisfaction with the services if their complaints are resolved well (Nyer, 2000). In a study
about health services quality, Shemwell and Yavas measured service quality in hospital services and found that
search, credence and experience are main indicators of service quality in health services settings. In another study,
Carman (2000) separated hospital services into operational and technical dimensions. Operational dimension
represented how the service is offered while technical dimension represented the results of the services. It was found
in this study that patients‘ perceptions about technical dimensions of the service is more important for their
perceptions of quality. Considering the complexity and technicality of health services, measurement of satisfaction in
this sector is a formidable task. Gill and White (2009) argued that standardization, reliability and validity issues for
the measurement of satisfaction of health services still remains an issue in academia. Previous research suggest that
service quality and satisfaction are major indicators of consumer loyalty and trust. Strength of these relationships
depend in part on the level of consumer complaints as lower levels of compliants result in higher satisfaction and
loyalty levels (Duman and Kozak, 2009). Nyer (2000) found that customers who are given chances for expressing
their complaints report higher satisfaction levels. In another study, Vukmir (2006) found that timing and amount of

725

�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
caring are the two main indicators of customer satisfaction for health services. Timely and personalized services can
be expected to increase quality, satisfaction and loyalty levels for public services. Current research aims to measure
public perceptions of expectations, service quality, satisfaction, complaints and trust and test the relationships
between tehse variables in the context of public health services in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Research Methodology
Research design

Secondary sources were first explored to develop the research framework. A two-page questionaire with
three sections were used to collect data. The first section of the questionnaire included questions about general health
services experience. Questions such as type of clinic visited and wait time before treatment were asked in this
section. The second part of the questions included questions about the concepts that are included in the research
model (Figure 1). In this part 22 questions were asked, 19 of which were attitudinal questions and the rest were yesno questions. Questions refering to likelihood to recommend public services, overall confidence in relying on health
services, official and unofficial complaints, overall satisfaction, overall quality, clarity of information given by
hospital and professionalism of hospital staff were included in second section. Yes-no questions were used to
identify if the respondents had any official complaint and whether they used the web site to search information about
the health services. Questions in the second part were adapted from ACSI government model (ACSI, 2010) and
Fornell et al. (1996). Questions in the second section were measures with seven – point numerical scales where one
represented total disagreement and seven represented total agreement to the stated question. Finally, the last section
was about demographics. Questions such as age group, gender, education, occupation and monthly household
income were placed in the last section. The questionnaire was first prepared in English and transtlated into Bosnian
language. Translation of the questionnaire was done with experts in busniess who know both languages and
respective culture. Pretesting of the questionnarie was administered with 10 respondents chosen conveniently from a
diverse cross-section of the population. The purpose of the pretest was to assess the validity of the questionnaire. The
questions that were not fully understood were evaluated again and finalized for data collection.
Data collection and sampling

Information was gathered directly from actual users of hospital services in Sarajevo Canton. The sample for
this study was selected conviniently from a diverse cross-section of the population in Sarajevo Canton. The sample
included adults (18 years and older). Ten researchers from a marketing class distributed questionnaires personally to
the general public in different parts of Sarajevo between April 1 and April 17 2010. A total of 250 questionnaires
were distributed and 211 usable questionnaires were received during this time period, resulting in response rate of
84,4 percent. Respondents‘ anonymity was ensured by asking them not to identify themselves in any way. Gender
was represented by 55 percent males and 45 percent females. The age of the respondents is skewed in favor of the
younger population (64 percent in 18-35 age group). In the education category 67,2 percent of population had high
school or college degree. Finally 54,8 percent of population were employed and 31,9 of population had income
between 500 and 999 KMs.
Analysis
Frequency analysis was used to analyze demographic and visitation variables. The attitudinal variables were
analyzed with descriptive analysis was done sample t-tests. In one sample t-tests, means were compared with 4 (midpoint of the scale). The research model was analyzed with multiple regression analysis. In this analysis, three
regression models were run. In the first model, service quality was used as the dependent variable while process,
information and customer service was used as independent variables. Web site was not used as an independent
variable because response rate on this variable was too low. In the second model, customer satisfaction is used as a
dependent variable and expectation and service quality were used as the independent variables. Finally, in the third
model, citizen trust is used as the dependent variable and customer satisfaction and customer complaints were used
as the independent variables.

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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo

Results
Table 1 presents the demographic and visitation characteristics of the patients. 64 % of patients were in 1835 age range. Males constituted 55 % and females constituted 45 % of the sample. 64 % had college or graduate
education and 54,8 % were employed and 60 % had an income level between 500 – 1499 KM. 52 % of people
waited until they have received medical treatment between 1- 20 in minute. 64,2 % of patients were given clear
information by the hospital employees.
Demographic Variables
Age Group
18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56 or over
Total
Gender
Male
Female
Total

N

%

68
67
32
23
21
211

32,2
31,8
15,2
10,9
10
100

115
94
209

55
45
100

Education Status
High School
Vocational SchoolTechnical school
College
Graduate
Total

57
17

27,5
8,3

81
49
204

39,7
24
100

Occupation
Employed
Retired
Unemployed
Student

114
23
21
50

54,8
11,1
10,1
24

Total

208

100

Demographic and Visitation
Variables
Income Level
0-499 KM
500-999 KM
1000-1499 KM
1500 KM or more
Total
Clarity of information given
Yes
No
Partially
Total
Wait time before treatment
(in minutes)
1-10
11-20
20-30
31-60
61 or over
Total
Visited Polyclinic
Internal medicine
Gynecology
Pediatry
Orthopedy
Neurology
Ear nose and throat
Dermatology
Other
Total

N

%

36
65
57
46
204

17,6
31,9
27,9
22,5
100

124
13
56
193

64,2
6,7
29
100

38
49
30
29
21
167

22,8
29,3
18
17,4
12,6
100

48
20
25
17
10
18
12
56
206

23,3
9,7
12,1
8,3
4,9
8,7
5,8
27,2
100

Table 1: Demographic and Visitation Characteristics of Patients
Table 2 presents the results of descriptive analysis and one sample t-tests. The significance of the results in
one sample t-tests is measured by the comparison of 4 (nuetral attitude) with the mean values with a pobability level
of .05. As seen in the table, respondents have positive feelings toward recommending the services they received
(mean= 4,33; p=.01) and feeling confident in relying on these services (mean= 4,28; p=.02). However, respondents
find making a formal compliant difficult (mean= 3,33; p=.00) and their complaints were not handled well by the
officials (mean= 3,44; p=.00). Also, respondents feel that health services they recieved fell short of their expectations
(mean= 3,76; p=.03). Similarly, they feel negative about the quality of services they received (means= 3,72, 3,70,
3,56; p=.01, p=,01, p=,00 respectively) and they find service process as inconvenient as indicated by the mean value
of 3,52 (p=.00). Finally, respondents have neutral feelings in terms of expectations, information, customer service
and web site (p&gt;.05).

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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
Constructs and Items
Citizen Trust
Likelihood to recommend
Confidence in relying on the health services
Complaints
Difficulty or ease of making a complaint
Complaint handling by the officials
Satisfaction
Overall satisfaction
Expectation confirmation
Service Quality
Overall Quality
Quality in terms of fit to personal requirements
Quality in terms of how often things have gone
wrong
Expectations
Expectations of the overall quality
Expectations in terms of how well the services
fit to personal requirements
Process
Convenience
Timeliness
Information
Clarity of information
Accessibility of information
Customer service
Courtesy of health care staff
Professionalism of the health care staff
Web-site
Finding information through web-site easily
Usefulness of information

N

Mean

Standard
Deviation

t-value

p-value

212
211

4,33
4,28

1,82
1,71

2,60
2,41

0.01
0.02

84
118

3,33
3,44

1,90
1,90

-3,22
-3,20

0.00
0.00

208
213

3,85
3,76

1,74
1,63

-1,24
-2,18

0.22
0.03

211
210

3,72
3,70

1,52
1,58

-2,67
-2,75

0.01
0.01

208

3,56

1,48

-4,31

0.00

212

3,86

1,58

-1,26

0.21

208

3,87

1,47

-1,32

0.19

209
210

3,52
3,82

1,62
1,71

-4,30
-1,49

0.00
0.14

210
209

4,13
3,93

1,72
1,71

1,09
-0,56

0.28
0.57

209
210

3,94
4,12

1,78
1,66

-0,51
1,08

0.61
0.28

49
52

3,94
4,23

1,90
1,78

-0,23
0,94

0.82
0.35

Table 2: One sample t-test for measured variables (test value=4)
Model Tests

The relationships in the model were tested with three regression models. Before the model tests, correlations
between variables were analyzed and presented in Tables 3 and 5. As seen in the tables, variables show moderate to
high correlations in the range of .56 - .86 except for web site variable. Web site variable has low correlations with
other variables possibly due to low response rate on this variable. For this reason, web site variable is removed from
further tests of regressions. The other correlations in the table are significant at .05 probability level.

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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo

Process

Information

Customer
service

Pearson corr.
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson corr.
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson corr.

Service quality

Process

Information

.785(**)
,000
211
,788(**)
,000
211
,782(**)

,755(**)
,000
211
,756(**)

,815(**)

Customer
service

Sig. (2-tailed)
,000
,000
,000
N
211
211
211
Pearson corr.
,203
,153
,337(*)
,396(**)
Website
Sig. (2-tailed)
,154
,283
,016
,004
N
51
51
51
51
** Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2-tailed). * Correlation is significant at the 0,05 level (2-tailed).
Table 3: Correlations ( Model 1)
Table 4 shows the results of first regression analysis. Independent variables explain 73% of variance in the
dependent variable and all the independent variables have high correlations with the dependent variable (p=.00).
Among the independent variables, service process has the strongest relationship with service quality followed by
information and customer service (t=5,96; 4,47 and 3,96 respectively).
Dependent Variable :
Service Quality
Independent Variables
Standardized Beta
t- value
p- value
VIF
Process
0,36
5,96
0.00
2,69
Information
0,30
4,47
0.00
3,44
Customer Service
0,27
3,96
0.00
3,46
Note: R² =0,73; VIF: Variance Inflation Factor
Table 4: Regression Analysis (Model 1)
Customer
Expectations
Service
Complaints
Quality
Pearson Corr.
,706(**)
Expectation
Sig. (2-tailed)
,000
N
119
Pearson Corr.
,698(**)
,750(**)
Service Quality
Sig. (2-tailed)
,000
,000
N
119
211
Pearson Corr.
,641(**)
,748(**)
,858(**)
Satisfaction
Sig. (2-tailed)
,000
,000
,000
N
119
213
211
Pearson Corr.
,555(**)
,601(**)
,667(**)
Citizen Trust
Sig. (2-tailed)
,000
,000
,000
N
119
213
211
** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Table 5: Correlations ( Models 2 and 3)

Satisfaction

,641(**)
,000
213

Table 6 and 7 show the results of second and third regression analyses. Independent variables in these
models explain 77% and 38% of variance in the dependent variables respectively. All the independent variables in
the models have high correlations with the dependent variables (p=.00). Among the independent variables in the
second model, service quality has the strongest relationship with customer satisfaction (t=13,09 and 5,10
respectively). In the final model, customer satisfaction has a stronger relationship with citizen trust compared to
customer complaints as indicated by t-values of 3,73. These findings are congruent with previous research on service

729

�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
quality and satisfaction where service quality is the most important indicator of satisfaction perceptions as
satisfaction is the most important indicator of recommending and trust perceptions (Cronin et al. 2000).
Dependent Variable:
Customer Satisfaction
Independent Variables
Standardized Beta
t- value
p-value
VIF
Expectation
0,26
5,10
0.00
2,29
Service Quality
0,66
13,09
0.00
2,29
Note: R² =0,77; VIF: Variance Inflation Factor
Table 6: Regression Analysis ( Model 2 )
Dependent Variable:
Citizen Trust
Independent Variables
Standardized Beta
t- value
p-value
Customer Complaints
0,32
3,44
0.00
Customer Satisfaction
0,36
3,73
0.00
Note: R² = 0,38; VIF: Variance Inflation Factor
Table 7: Regression Analysis ( Model 3 )

VIF
1,70
1,70

Discussion
This researched analyzed antecedents and consequences of customer satisfaction for public health services
in Sarajevo. Research results reveal insightful results for theory and managers of these services. In terms of the
model test, the results show that proposed three indicators of service quality, process, information and customer
service have positive and significant relationships with this variable. In other words, ease and timeliness of services
process, clarity and accessibility of information and courtesy and professionalism of health care staff are important
signs of quality service for public health services in Sarajevo. The features realted to web sites of the institutions may
not have a significant impact on service quality because of limited use of these sites by the public. Results further
suggest that expectations and service quality are significant indicators of customer satisfaction as satisfaction and
complaint handling are important indicators for citizen trust. Higher service quality and satisfaction perceptions
result in greater citizen trust perceptions.
Although research participants indicate that they trust the services they get from public institutions, they
feel negative about complaint handling, quality of service and convenience of service process. One reason for this
result might be related to the physical conditions of the facilities as the recovery process is stil continuing from the
recent war. Although not statistically significant, participants seem positive about professionalism of the health care
staff but they think that the service process is not as convenient as they desire. This may be related to the fact that
process of making an appointment is usualy slow in these instituions and patients have to wait from one to two
weeks to be on the appointment list. Once they are on the list, process of getting treatment is relatively good and fast.
Despite a general negative evaluations about service quality, participants show mix feelings about specific service
quality features. This might be a sign that they feel improvements in services and they are positive about future
expectations. Positive feelings of trust might indicate that participants are relying on their governmental services but
they don‘t see current situation as adequate for their expectations.
The results found in this study are coming from a limited sample and these results must be validated with
future studies in this area. Higher sample sizes can give better ideas of public perceptions about health services in
Sarajevo. Also, management of the health facilities should consider reasons of limited usage of their websites for
appointments and complaint reporting. The use of web sites can easily improve public perceptions about these
services. Also, detailed studies are needed to measure perceptions of public because there might be significant
differences between different demographic groups. For example, one generation lived through a devastating war
while another (younger) generation doesn‘t even remember these events. The management of public health services
in Sarajevo should consider using citizenship and nationalistic themes in promoting their services. Apperantly public
feels positive about their institutions and expect more in the future.

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References
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Carman, J. M. (2000) Patient Perceptions of Service Quality: Combining the Dimensions, The Journal of Services Marketing, 14
(4), 337-352.
Cronin, J. J., Brady M. K., &amp; Hult, G. T. M. (2000). Assessing the effects of quality, value and customer satisfaction on consumer
behavioral intentions in service environments. Journal of Retailing, 76(2), 193-218.
Dube-Rioux, L. (1990). The power of affective reports in predicting satisfaction judgments. Advances in Consumer Research, 17,
571-576.
Duman, T. and Kozak M. (2009). Service Failure, Tourist Complaints and Service Recovery, In Handbook of Tourist Behaviour:
Theory &amp; Practice. Routledge
Fornell, C., Johnson, M. D., Anderson, E. W., Cha, J., &amp; Bryant, B. E. (1996). The American customer satisfaction index: Nature,
purpose and findings. Journal of Marketing, 60(October), 7-18.
Fournier, S. and Mick, D. G. (1999). Rediscovering Satisfaction. Journal of Marketing, 63, October, 5-23.
Gill , L. and White, L. (2009). Acritical review of patient satisfaction. Leadership in Health Services, 22(1), 8-19.
Howard, J. (1999) Hospital Customer Service in a Changing Healthcare World: Does It Matter? Journal of
Healthcare Management, 44 (4), 312-325.
Mano, H., &amp; Oliver, R. L. (1993). Assessing the dimensionality and structure of consumption experience: Evaluation, feeling and
satisfaction. Journal of Consumer Research, 20(December), 451-466.
Nyer, U. P. (2000). An investigation into whether complaining can cause increased consumer satisfaction. Journal of Consumer
Marketing, 17(1), 9-19.
Jones, T. and Sasser, W. E. (1995). Why Satisfied Customers Defect. Harvard Business Review, November-December, 88-98.
Oliver, R. L. (1980). A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. Journal of Marketing
Research, 17, 460-469.
Oliver, R. L. (1994). Conceptual issues in the structural analysis of consumption emotion, satisfaction, and quality. Advances in
Consumer Research, 21, 16-22.
Oliver, R L. (1997). Satisfaction: A behavioral perspective on the consumer. Boston, MA: Irwin, McGraw-Hill.
Parasuraman, A., Zeithaml, V., &amp; Berry, L. (1988). SERVQUAL: A multiple-item scale for measuring consumer perceptions of
service quality. Journal of Retailing, 64(Spring), 12-40.
Spreng, R. A., Mackoy, R. D. (1996). An Emprical Examination of a Model of Perceived Service Quality and Satisfaction.
Journal of Retailing, 72(2), 201-214.
Spreng, R. A., MacKennzie, S. B. and Olshavsky, R. W. (1996). A Reexamination of the Determinants of Consumer Satisfaction.
Journal of Marketing, 60, 15-32.
Taylor, S. A., Baker, T. L.(1994). An Assesment of the Relationship Between Service Quality and Customer Satisfaction in the
Formation of Consumers‘ Purchase Intentions. Journal of Retailing, 70(2), 163-178.
Vukmir, R. B. (2006). Customer Satisfaction. International Journal of Health Care Quality Assurance, 19 (1), 8-31.
Westbrook, R. A., &amp; Oliver, R. L. (1991). The dimensionality of consumption emotion patterns and consumer satisfaction.
Journal of Consumer Research, 18(June), 84-91.
Woodruff, R. B., &amp; Gardial, S. F. (1996). Know your customer: New approaches to understanding customer value and
satisfaction. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell Publishers.

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Zeithaml, V. A. (1988). Consumer perceptions of price, quality and value: A means-end model and synthesis of evidence. Journal
of Marketing, 52(July), 2-22.

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ÖZTÜRK, Elif
MESETOVİC, Muris
HOJKURİC, Haris
KANTÜRK, Ahmet
KONAKLI, Zafer</text>
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                <text>The purpose of this research is to test the relationships between expectations, service  quality, satisfaction, complaints and citizen trust in the context of public health services in  Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) government  model is used as the research framework in this study. Initially proposed by Fornell, Johnson,  Anderson, Cha and Bryant (1996), ACSI model is the most well-known customer satisfaction  model in the US and in most parts of the world. As part of the proposed framework, public  perceptions of service quality, expectations, satisfaction, complaints and citizen trust were  measured for public health services with a self administered questionnaire. 212 completed  questionnaires were used in the data analysis. Research results show that service process, service  quality and satisfaction peceptions are main indicators of citizen trust for public health services in  Sarajevo.</text>
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                    <text>2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo

An Application of Fuzzy Pairwise Comparison to Farmer Attitude toward
Advertisement Techniques Used for Farm Tractors in Turkey
Murat CANKURT
Dr., Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Agriculture,
Dept of Ag Econ, Aydın, Turkey
mcankurt@adu.edu.tr
Bülent MĠRAN
Prof.Dr., Ege University, Faculty of Agriculture,
Dept of Ag Econ, Bornova/Izmir, Turkey
Cihat GÜNDEN
Dr., North Carolina University, North Carolina A&amp;T State University, USA
Ahmet ġAHIN
Asist. Prof., Sütçü Ġmam University, Faculty of Agriculture,
Dept of Ag Econ, KahramanmaraĢ, Turkey

Abstract: It is the purpose of this study to elicit the priorities of advertisement methods in which
the farmers takes into account while buying farm tractor. The data was gathered through a survey
that is covering randomly chosen farmers in Aydın. Fuzzy pairwise comparison was used as the
analysis technique. Mostly benefited advertisement methods such as field demonstrations, media
commercials, fairs, brochures and factory trips were assumed to impact the farmers during their
tractor buying process. The study showed that the most important advertisement method that
stimulates the farmers to buy tractor is field demonstrations with a weight of 0.87. The subsequent
methods are factory trips (0.50), exhibitions at fairs (0.41 and media commercials (0.15).

Introduction
The decision making mechanism of the farmers for buying has been the aim of many studies so far. A great
amount of theories in regard with farmer attitudes were forwarded and discussed up to now. The most attractive
theory which is also quite simple and applicable is the one suggested by Kurt Lewin, a psychologist (Figure 1)
(Cankurt, 2008). This theory argues that attitudes are the function of personal and environmental factors which leads
to developing a model so-called ―black box‖ or ―stimulation-response‖ (OdabaĢı ve BarıĢ, 2003).

FigPicture1: The Black Box (Consumer Mind) Model (OdabaĢı ve BarıĢ, 2003).

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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo

It is presumed that a customer reacts to the events under the effect of a number of individual and
surrounding factors. For the ease of analysing the mechanism, grouping of the effective factors on farmer behaviour
was the widespread approach in the presumed models. The grouped factors are assumed to influence the decision
making process of farmers and give rise to a final behaviour, either buying or non-buying (Çabuk ve Yağcı, 2003).
The factories are as follows (OdabaĢı and BarıĢ, 2003):
 Psychological factors,
 Socio-cultural factors,
 Demographic factors,
 Conditional factors,
 Marketing factors
This study aims at eliciting the influences of advertisement methods on the tractor buying behaviour of
farmers.
As in many areas, marketing studies mostly compare alternative ways that may lead to the ranking of them
with their weights or priorities. It has been an important goal for researchers to rank the objectives, products or
information sources properly.
There have been some techniques that the researchers used in determining the priorities or rankings of
elements in question. One technique that was first used by the researchers is simple ranking in which respondents are
simply asked to give rank numbers to the elements while 1 represents the most preferred element and n the least
preferred one. Ranking or rating scales are used in areas such as preference list and consumer satisfaction. They
typically let individuals rank a product or performance via a numerical scale. While ranking scales can make it easy
to assemble and tabulate the results, there are some inherent disadvantages in the gathering of the information.
Ranking scales allow for consistency in the tabulation of responses. Each subject is rated using the same standards,
so there is fairness in the evaluation process. The results are measurable, which makes for easy comparison. Since
ranking scales are numerical, the results obtained are completely objective. Those who examine the results are not
swayed by subjective comments or opinions, and there is no way for personal prejudices to factor in. Several
different methods can be employed to gather information through ranking scales. In product evaluation, surveys can
be done over the phone, in person or by postal mail. In-person surveys can also be conducted at a location where a
product is purchased by giving out free samples. In the age of the Internet, information from ranking scales can even
be gather via email or online survey. A possible weakness of ranking systems is that the evaluator may rank based on
perception. Although those who interpret the results use objective methods, the actual evaluators may rate the subject
based on their opinions or prejudices without basing them on fact. The evaluators may also interpret the rating scales
differently. For example, with a rating scale that assigns a number based on criteria such as "good," "average" or
"occasionally" room is left for interpretation as to what those terms actually mean, which can result in inaccurate
ratings. An individual using a ranking scale may be influenced by how a survey is conducted. If a survey is
conducted in person, the responder be swayed by the survey taker's personal appearance or tone of voice. They
survey taker may also have a personal agenda which influences how they ask the questions..
In fact, studies indicated that more than five information sources can not be efficiently compared by nonpreeducated minds (Baran, 2002). Another technique without such disadvantages that can be used in ranking is
simple pairwise comparison. Simple pairwise comparison is a sort of divide-and-conquer problem-solving method. It
allows one to determine the relative order (ranking) of a group of items (products). This is often used as part of a
process of assigning weights to criteria in question. Pairwise comparison generally refers to any process of
comparing entities in pairs to judge which of each pair is preferred, or has a greater amount of some quantitative
property. The method of pairwise comparison is used in the scientific study of preferences, attitudes, voting systems,
social choice and public choice. In psychology literature, it is often referred to as paired comparison.
This study deals with eliciting how much farmers pay attention to each of the advertisement techniques while
making decision on buying a farm tractor. The results from the study is expected to serve as a tool for using most
effective advertisement techniques to get the best selling levels of farm tractors.

Material And Method
The data was gathered through a survey that is covering randomly chosen farmers in Aydın. The province of
Aydın has 17 counties, including itself as Central County. There is a poli-cultural production structure in Aydın.
Total sample size was computed as 121 by estimating the population proportion with 90% confidence level and 7.5%
error (Newbold, 1995). Three of the 17 counties of Aydın were selected to represent Aydın and total sample size
was distributed to these counties according to their respective shares.

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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo

The data was analyzed by the FPC in which the farmers made pairwise comparisons of the five
advertisement techniques. FPC presented weighted scores for each of the advertisement methods that enabled us to
rank them. In the FPC, a farmer was asked to compare two advertisement techniques. The comparison includes not
only a preference of one technique over the other technique but also drawing out the level or power of the preference.
Fuzzy Pair-Wise Comparison
Fuzzy theory began with a paper on ―fuzzy sets‖ by Zadeh in 1965. Fuzzy set theory is an extension of crisp
set theory (Tanaka, 1997). Fuzzy sets are sets with boundaries that are not precise. Thus, fuzzy sets describe ranges
of vague and soft boundaries by degree of membership (Lai and Hwang, 1994). The membership in a fuzzy set is a
matter of a degree (Klir and Yuan, 1995). Fuzzy set is characterized by a membership function, which is allowed to
choose an arbitrary real value between zero and one.
FPC was first used by Van Kooten, Schoney and Hayward (1986) to study farmers‘ goal hierarchies for use in
multiple-objective decision making. The first step of FPC approach in this study is data collection by using a unit
line segment as illustrated in Figure 2. Two advertisement methods, D (field demonstration) and T (factory trips), are
located at opposite ends of the unit line. Farmers are asked to place a mark on the line to indicate the degree of their
affected advertisement method. A measure of the degree of preference for advertisement method D over T, rDT, is
obtained by measuring the distance from the farmer‘s mark to the D endpoint. The total distance from D to T equals
1. If rDT&lt;0.5, advertisement method D is preferred to D; if rDT=0.5, the farmer is indifferent between D and T and if
rDT&gt;0.5, then advertisement method D is preferred to T. RDT=1 or rDT=0 indicates absolute preference for
advertisement method D or T. For example, if rDT=1, then advertisement method D is absolutely preferred to T (Van
Kooten et al, 1986).
Neutral

D

T

Figure 2. Fuzzy method for making pair-wise comparison between advertisement methods
(D)Demonstration and (T)Trip.
The present study employs five advertisements used tractor advertisement. The number of pair-wise comparisons, λ,
can be calculated as follows:

  n   n  1 / 2

(1)

where n = the number of advertisement methods. Thus, a farmer made ten pair-wise comparisons in a personal
interview.
In the second step of FPC, for each paired comparison (i,j), r ij (ij) is obtained. rij‘s values is collected directly from
farmer. Also rij (ij) is a measure of the degree by which the farmer prefers advertisement method i to advertisement
method j and rji=1- rij represents the degree by which j is preferred to i. Following Van Kooten at al (1986), the
farmer‘s fuzzy preference matrix R with elements can be constructed as follows:

0 if i  j  i, j  1,..., n
Rij  
rij if i  j  i, j  1,..., n

(2)

Finally, a measure of preference, μ, can be calculated for each advertisement method by using farmer‘s preference
matrix R. The intensity of each preference is measured separately by the following equation:
1/ 2

 n

 j  1    Rij2 /  n  1 
 i 1


(3)

μj has a range in the closed interval [0,1]. The larger value of μj indicates a greater intensity of preference for
advertisement method j. As a result, farmer‘s advertisement methods are ranked from most to least preferable by
evaluating the μ values.
To analyze advertisement methods derived from FPC, nonparametric statistical tests are used (BaĢarır and Gillespie,
2003). Friedman test is employed to establish whether the advertisement methods are equally important within a
block which is a farmer‘s advertisement method rankings according to his/her preferences. Since five advertisement
methods are presented to farmers, each row includes five values which are the degree of the preferences for the
advertisement methods exposed from a farmer. The null hypothesis is that there is no difference in preferences over

545

�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo

the advertisement methods among farmers. Alternatively, at least one advertisement method is preferred over the
others. Another nonparametric test was Kendall‘s W which is a normalization of the Friedman test. Kendall‘s W is a
test for agreement among more than two set of rankings (Bowen and Starr, 1982) . Kendall‘s W is the coefficient of
concordance, and ranges between 0 (no agreement) and 1 (complete agreement).

Findings
In the fuzzy pairwise analysis, five of the advertisement techniques mostly used in Farm Tractor
commercials in Turkey were taken into account:
 Field demonstrations: Tractors are introduced under field conditions
 Media commercials: Tractors are introduces via adds in televisions, radios, newspaper and magazines
 Fairs and exhibitions: Tractors are introduced at fairs and exhibition centres for visitors
 Brochures and pamphlets: Technical information about tractors is given with some supplementary pictures.
 Factory trips: Farmers are picked up and taken to the factories where tractors are produced.
Descriptive statistics related with the values of each advertisement techniques obtained from FPC analysis is
presented in Table 1.
Advertisement techniques

Mean

Standard
deviation

Minimum

Maximum

Field demonstrations

0.87

0.14

0.34

1.00

Media commercials

0.50

0.11

0.26

0.95

Fairs and exhibitions

0.41

0.13

0.07

0.83

Brochures and pamphlets

0.23

0.13

0.00

0.68

Factory trips

0.15

0.10

0.00

0.68

Friedman Test Chi-square: 378.46; (p&lt;0.00)
Kendall's W= 0.78

Table 1: Effect of Advertisement Techniques on Tractor Buying
The Friedman test concludes that the advertisement techniques have statistically different effects on the farmers
during their decision making for buying a tractor (Friedman: 378.46). The Kendall‘s W coefficient (0.78) implies
that the farmers are in a strong agreement on the ranking of the techniques. The most effective technique was found
as field demonstration with a score of 0.87 which was followed by factory trips (0.50), fairs and exhibitions (0.41),
brochures (0.23) and media commercials (0.15).

Conclusion
As part of the factors affecting tractor demand, advertisement techniques that can be employed for farm
tractors were dealt with in this study. Five of the techniques were analyzed by fuzzy pairwise comparison. The
analysis indicated that the most effective advertisement technique during the decision making process for tractor
buying of farmers was field demonstration. The subsequent techniques were factory trips, fairs and exhibitions,
brochures and pamphlets and media commercials. According to the nonparametric tests, the farmers mostly agreed
upon the advertisement techniques that they were affected. This denotes that the farmers would like to see tractors
working on the real conditions in their fields. A combination of field demonstration and brochures-pamphlets
distributed during fairs and exhibitions could be recommended for increasing tractor demand.

References
BaĢarır, A., (2002). Multidimensional Goals of Farmers in the Beef Cattle and Diary Industries, PhD Dissertation, Louisiana State
University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, 134 p. (unpublished).

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�2nd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 8-9 2010, Sarajevo
BaĢarır, A., Gillespie, J.M., 2003. Goals of beef cattle and dairy producers: a comparison of the fuzzy pair-wise method and
simple ranking procedure. Southern Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, February 1-5, Mobile, AL.
Bowen, E.K., Starr, M.K., (1982). Basic Statistics for Business and Economics. McGraw-Hill, London.
Çabuk, S., Yağcı, M.Ġ. (2003), Pazarlamaya ÇağdaĢ YaklaĢımlar, Adana, Nobel Kitabevi.
Cankurt, M. (2008). Aydın Yöresinde Çiftçilerin Traktör Talebi, Kullanım Memnuniyeti ve Satın Alma DavranıĢlarının
Belirlenmesi Üzerine Bir AraĢtırma. Dr Tezi, Ege Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Bornova, Ġzmir.
Günden, C., (2005). Bireysel ĠĢletme, Grup ve Bölge Bazında Uygulamaya ElveriĢli Esnek Üretim Planlarının Bulanık Çok
Amaçlı Doğrusal Programlama Yöntemiyle Elde Edilmesi Üzerine Bir AraĢtırma: Ġzmir Ġli Torbalı Ġlçesi Örneği, Dr Tezi, Ege
Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Bornova, Ġzmir.
Klir, G.J., Yuan, B., (1995). Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic: Theory and Application. Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
Lai, Y.J., Hwang, C.L., (1994). Fuzzy Multiple Objective Decision Making: Methods and Applications. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
Miran B., (2003), Temel Ġstatistik Ege Üniversitesi Basımevi ISBN 975-9308800 Bornova Ġzmir.
Newbold, P., (1995). Statistics for Business and Economics. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey.
Odabası, Y. ve Barıs, G., (2003), Tüketici Davranısı, Ġstanbul, Mediacat Akademi.
Tanaka, K., (1997). An Introduction to Fuzzy Logic for Practical Applications. Springer - Verlag, New York.
Van Kooten, G.C., Schoney, R.A. and Hayward, K.A., (1986). An alternative approach to the evaluation of goal hierarchies
among farmers. Western Journal of Agricultural Economics 11, 40-49.
Zadeh, L.A., (1965). Fuzzy sets. Information and Control 8, 338-358.

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                    <text>An Application On Determining Of Optimum Local Transporting System At Adapazari
City
Taskin Kamil, Gumus Fatih1, Akaytay Ali2
1 Sakarya University, Business Faculty, , Sakarya, Turkey,
2Duzce University, Business Faculty, Duzce, Turkey
E –mails: ktaskin@sakarya.edu.tr, fbgumus@sakarya.edu.tr, akaytay@sakarya.edu.tr
Abstract
Adapazarı Town is the management center of the Sakarya City and the biggest town of
Sakarya. Transportation in Adapazarı City is being provided by Municipality buses,
minibuses, shared taxi and special buses. This has been both caused a deepen conflict which
is hard to be manage and intensive traffic problem. There is an intensive competition among
the minibuses, shared taxi and special buses. This situation has been reflected to Municipality
buses negatively. Additionaly, all passenger vehicles have been working with idle capacity.
This means that there are lots of passenger vehicles which working with idle capacity and
uncomfortable .
We calculated these specialties of minibuses and shared taxies at this study at below;








Idle Capacities
All expenditures
Daily, monthly ann annual incomes
Daily circle number
Capacities at new model
All expenditure at new model
Daily, monthly ann annual incomes at new model

At our model, minibuses and shared taxies have been combined and have gotten active on
their new routes. At our model includes these profits;





The more relaxed traffic.
The more suitable and comfortable passenger tranportation.
The more profits level for minibuses and shared taxies.
The less and fasten routes

Keywords: Transporting, Optimum level, New Regulation, Optimum Capacity, Idle Capacity.

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�1.THE AIM OF THE STUDY
This application study was performed in Adapazarı city which is the central settlement unit of
Sakarya metropolitan municipality. Our study focuses on cities’ transportation problem.
Sakarya and its center Adapazarı cities are developing settlements units of Turkey. Sakarya
and Adapazarı cities have increasing population number. These numbers are given at Table 1
at below: (http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakarya_(il)#N.C3.BCfus)

TABLE 1: Population Numbers Of Sakarya And Adapazarı Cities.
As it is seen at Table 1, Sakarya And Adapazarı Cities’ population numbers have been
increasing along the years. In addition to this information, Sakarya cities’ economical weigh
increased among the other cities of Turkey. Countries’ top ten cities’ export numbers are at
Table 2 at below: (http://www.tim.org.tr/tr/ihracat-ihracat-rakamlari-tablolar.html)

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Ranking

City

Export Total

%

1.

İstanbul

51.833.871

46,18

2.

Bursa

10.927.885

9,73

3.

Kocaeli

8.880.173

7,91

4.

İzmir

7.201.910

6,41

5.

Ankara

5.186.288

4,62

6.

Gaziantep

3.887.663

3,46

7.

Manisa

3.524.252

3,14

8.

Denizli

2.143.886

1,91

�9.

Hatay

1.732.129

1,54

10.

Sakarya

1.665.431

1,48

TABLE 2 : Turkey’s Top Ten Export Totals According To Cities.
As it seen Table 1, Sakarya has very important place and ranking in Countries’ economical
performance. Sakarya made export 1.665.431 $ export in 2011 year and the share of this total
in sum number is % 1,48.
Table 1 and table 2 shows us Sakarya and Adapazarı cities are deveoloping cities in Turkey
cities. This has been bringing more advantages. For example, a great number of big factories
and small and medium sized factories have opened up to 2012. This situation accelerated
especially at new millenium. Besides, there are lots of market and shopping center have been
opened. These progresses brought some problem to Adapazarı city especially at
transportation topic.
Transportation in Adapazarı City is being provided by Municipality buses, minibuses, shared
taxi and special buses. Nearly ten years ago, city is smaller than now and transportation was
not big problem. After the earthquake in 1999, city was planned again and new settlement
areas established which are far from the city nearly 20 kilometres. Some people chose to live
around the city not in it. This situation caused the transportation problem because the city
expanded the wide area after the earthquake. 4 transportation type is more excessive and
complicated for the city. These transportation type’s routes have been crossed and this caused
negative competion and discomfort in people. Because of these situations, we aimed to solve
conflict and suggest a new plan for cities’ transportation system. The aimes of our study are
determined in some titles. These are given at below:




If minibuses turns into buses, what is the new profit of the owner of the minibuses.
Compare of buses and minibuses’ profit, expenses and incomes.
If minibuses turn into buses, how many buses are sufficent for city transportation.

2.CURRENT SITUATION OF CITY TRANSPORTATION
As it seen above, there are 4 alternatives for inner city transportation. These are Municipality
buses, minibuses, shared taxi and special buses. Adapazarı city has not tramvay and metro
line. Municipality buses, minibuses, shared taxi carry the passengers at inner city. Special
buses carry the passengers from the out of the cıty to inner city. In recent years, special buses
having kart54 have been carriying passsengers at inner city.
Minibuses and shared taxies have dominated to transportation system of the city. There are
416 minibuses and 320 shared taxies on the road. In one year, Sakarya metropolitan
municipality sold some long buses having more share in transportation. In addition to this,
Sakarya metropolitan municipality has been put pressure on minibus owner about buying new
422

�and long buses. Because minibuses and shared taxies cause traffic stir and have not modern
and comfortable environment. Minibuses are 14 peoples capacity and shared taxies are 7
peoples capacity. Because of capacity problem and comfortable inner design, turning into
buses is inevitable situation for these vehicles. This means that minibuses and shared taxies
are inadequate for cities’ transportation especially for recent years.
3.MINIBUS TRANSPORTATION
416 minibuses have been carrying passengers at 13 different stations. Some stations have
different subline. Other specialities of minibuses are at below;










Total market price of minibuses is 87.000.000 million US$
It constitutes of 13 stations and 27 subline.
Nearly 90.606 passengers are being carried by minibuses in a day.
Nearly 33.070.030 passengers are being carried by minibuses in a year.
All minibuses are turning around the World 2,25 times in a day.
37.797.740 km have been taken by minibuses in a year.
3.403.586 liter diesel have been consumed by minibuses. This makes 13.614.344
Turkish Liras expenditures.
Nearly every lines have been crossed with ather vehicles lines.
Some minibuses’ line price is higher than others because of profit level of their line.

4.METHODOLOGY
We traveled all stations to reach our studies goals. We got some information about minibüs
station and their feattures. Some station information and getting methods have been given at
below:








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Ticket price is taken by station officer. Ticket prices are different at student and civil
person. In addition to this, these prices are different at different stataions.
Passenger number carried by minibuses are calculated in minibuses by pollster. How
many student and civil person are being carried by minibüs calculated separetaly. This
calculated in accordance with morning, noon, evening timezones, summer and other
seasons at the same time.
Every replacement parts of minibus and buses were taken by oto markets.
Line lenght of every line calculated in minibüs.
The last 3 minibuses selling prices were taken from each stations.
Departure time of minibuses were calculated at every station at the base on timezones
( Morning, noon and evening).
Circuit time of line were calculated at every station in minibus.

�5.FINANCIAL COMPARANCE OF EACH LINE OF MINIBUSES
In this section, we showed line price, profit of the line and amortisation time at one figure. In
according to figure 1, line price, profit of the line and amortisation time are compliant with
each other. The most profited line has the most priced minibuses. At the most profited line,
amortisation time is the smallest.

FIGURE 1: Lıne Price, Profit Of The Line And Amortisatıon Time At Stations.

6. CONNECTION BETWEEN LINE PRICES AND PASSENGER NUMBERS
We showed that is there any connection line prices and passenger number carrying in a line at
below. In accordance with the figüre 2, line prices and passenger number carrying in a line
are compliant with each other. The more passenger are being carried in a line, the more price
of line is higher.

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�FIGURE 2: Line Prices And Passenger Numbers
7. IS THERE ANY IDLE CAPACITY AT MINIBUS LINES?
In accordance to our calculations, % 35 of minibuses are excessive situation. This means
minibuses are working with % 35 idle capacity. There is no need to 145 minibuses at
transportation. This means that minibuses have high and unnecessary cost, opportunity cost.
The same transportation function may have been given with 145 minibuses.

425

�FIGURE 3: Idle Capacity Of Minibus Lines
8.CONNECTION BETWEEN FUEL OIL PRICE AND PROFIT OF THE MINIBUS
Every body knows that there is a strong connection between fuel oil price and proft level of
minibuses. In Turkey, oil prices are very high so far as other countries. In accordance to our
calculations, fuel oil price is the most important and biggest part of the total cost of
minibuses. % 1 increase at fuel oil effects the profit at the proportion of % 0,9 decreasing. Oil
price is very unstable in Turkey because of most of the oil imported outside of the country.
This reflects to profit level and this level has been changing along the year.
9. ECONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION TO SAKARYA ECONOMY OF MINIBUSES
In accordance to table 3, minibuses directly contribute employtment of the 910 persons.These
persons constitute of owner and driver of minibus and station civils.If we suppose a family
constitutes of 4 person, minibuses in Adapazarı have been contributed total income of 3.640
person.
Total output of the minibuses have been contributed total income of 20.579 persons
indirectly. Minibuses have been spent 15.557.452 TL in a month and if this total is divided to
living index of a person, total income of 20.579 persons have been contributed by minibuses.
Direct Economical Contribution Of Minibuses
To Owner

416

To Driver

416

Station Civils

78

Directly Number of Employed Person

910

Directly Number of Income Supported Person ( A family = 4 person )

3640

Undirect Economical Contribution Of Minibuses
Replacement parts, maintanence, restoration

3.297.508 TL

Fuel Oil Cost

12.259.944 TL

Total

15.557.452 TL

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�Kamu-Sen syndicate living index for one person

3.204
Liras

Indirectly Number of Employed Person

5.105

Indirectly Number of Income Supported Person ( A family = 4 person )

20.579

Turkish

Table 3: Economical Contribution Of Minibuses To Sakarya City
10. IF 2 MINIBUSES TURNS INTO ONE BUS
In this section, we calculated all important alternatives in case of two minibuses turn into a
bus. Fort his aim, we got specialities of Fiat Ducato minibus and Otokar Doruk 190s bus. In
case of 2 Fiat Ducato minibüs turn into 1 Otokar Doruk 190s bus, we determined profit,
income and expense for 2 situations as comparative.
First of all, we got all expenses of Fiat Ducato minibus and Otokar Doruk 190s bus for
100.000 km road. These information was taken from seller of these vehicles. These
information reflect 2011 numbers. The result of this research is cost of bus surpasses cost of
minibus nearly at the proportion of % 60. These information about vehicles are below:

427

�TABLE 4: All Expenses Of Fiat Ducato Minibus And Otokar Doruk 190s Bus
Other information of Fiat Ducato minibus are below:

428

�TABLE 5: Oil Consume, Price And Capacity Of Fiat Ducato Minibus

TABLE 6: Yearly Maintenance And Other Costs Of Fiat Ducato Minibus
Other information of Otokar Doruk 190s Bus are below:

429

�TABLE 7: Oil Consume, Price And Capacity Of Otokar Doruk 190s Bus

TABLE 8: Yearly Maintenance And Other Costs Of Otokar Doruk 190s Bus
In accordance to these information, price of bus is 4 times more expensive than other one.
Other costs of bus are more than costs of minibüs but, in terms of capacity bus is more
advantageus than minibus.
11. RESULT TABLE OF TURNING TO BUS FROM MINIBUS
So far as our scenario, 2 minibus will turn into one bus and in case of 5.000 passengers are
carried by these vehicle alternatives we determined the probable cost, profit and income
results. These are below:

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�TABLE 9. Comparance Of Profitabilty Of Minibus and Bus
All fees are manually gathered in minibuses. Minibuses are not included to card54 system but
fees are piled by card54 system electronically in bus . Fees piled by card54 system are
transfered to bank account. Tax is taken over the piled fees and this amount is more higher
than tax piled without car54 system. This cost is the most important one in case of turning
into bus. The other important cost is card54 system hire taken over income as % 8. Another
loss is falling of the fees. Now, Minibuses are taking 1,25 TL from Civil person and 0,9 TL
from students as fee. In cart54 system, These fees will fall into 1.00 TL at civil person and
0,75 TL at student. If a person change the vehicle in one hour, the second fee will be with
%50 discount.
If all of these situations are taken into account, turning into the bus with card54 system will
cause to 1.531 TL loss according to minibus. Loss of being bus is 377 TL without card54
system. High costed components of bus and long amortisation time are taken into account
turning into the bus is not advantageous under these circumstances.
12. CONCLUSIONS
When examining cities in Turkey, it is easily recognized that growth trend in urban
transportation is becoming more and more unsustainable for minibuses in terms of
investments and planning as well as projections. The current conditions are bound to
eliminate minibuses as long as they are not given an opportunity to compete on an equal basis
and to institutionalize.
According to the projections, expected profit in changing minibuses with larger busses is
lesser than likely risks. This situation can be explained by as follows;
High tax rates after institutionalization and incorporation eliminate advantages of
scale economy
431

�-

High purchasing and operating costs

-

Pricing costs of card pass system

-

Costs on free and discount tickets

The balance of income and expense should be sustainable and suitable for the sector in cities
where a transformation is planned.
The ratio of Value added taxes (VAT) in Turkey (%18) is relatively higher than that of
European counterparts (%0-%8). The VAT ratio should be decreased to the ratio of the
European countries.
The fuel bill constitutes an important part of total costs as a result of high special
consumption taxes (SCT) in Turkey. The ratio of SCT is relatively higher than that of
European counterparts.
Similar incentive activities aiming at investment and personnel as in the sectors of agriculture
and public services should be introduced in the private mass transportation.
The bank of Provinces should extend credit with low interest rates and long dated to the
private mass transportation to renew the means of transportation under the same conditions
with the local administrations.
It should be enabled for the sector to employ professional and qualified staff to improve
productivity and quality (Social insurance premiums and tax liabilities should be undertaken
by the state).
REFERENCES
http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakarya_(il)#N.C3.BCfus
http://www.tim.org.tr/tr/ihracat-ihracat-rakamlari-tablolar.html

432

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                <text>Adapazarı Town is the management center of the Sakarya City and the biggest town of  Sakarya. Transportation in Adapazarı City is being provided by Municipality buses,  minibuses, shared taxi and special buses. This has been both caused a deepen conflict which  is hard to be manage and intensive traffic problem. There is an intensive competition among  the minibuses, shared taxi and special buses. This situation has been reflected to Municipality  buses negatively. Additionaly, all passenger vehicles have been working with idle capacity.  This means that there are lots of passenger vehicles which working with idle capacity and  uncomfortable .  We calculated these specialties of minibuses and shared taxies at this study at below;   Idle Capacities   All expenditures   Daily, monthly ann annual incomes   Daily circle number   Capacities at new model   All expenditure at new model   Daily, monthly ann annual incomes at new model  At our model, minibuses and shared taxies have been combined and have gotten active on  their new routes. At our model includes these profits;   The more relaxed traffic.   The more suitable and comfortable passenger tranportation.   The more profits level for minibuses and shared taxies.   The less and fasten routes  Keywords: Transporting, Optimum level, New Regulation, Optimum Capacity, Idle Capacity.</text>
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