227 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/a455d14de69ac48d7a5a6938f65e4db7.pdf 2b15cb99a5969744a34d5c039c97b5cd PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Green Technologies And Strategies The Detarmination Of The Direction Of Wind According To The Years İbrahim Aydın, Selim Sarper Yılmaz Celal Bayar University, Vocational Collage, Machine Programme Manisa, Turkey E-mails: ibrahim.aydin@bayar.edu.tr, selim.yilmaz@bayar.edu.tr Abstract Renewable energy sources are seen as an important source in meeting the requirement of energy increasing gradually. One of these most outstanding renewable energy sources is the wind energy whose technology and usage develops most rapidly. To be able to make use of the wind energy effectively, it should be cared that the dominant wind speed direction should be open enough in surrounding. In this direction, to benefit from these wind tribunes more effectively the wind measures must be done the montage of these tribunes should also be done taking into consideration of these dominant open directions. In this study, the wind measurements have been done hourly for five years and consequently the dominant wind direction have been found out as North Northeast (NNE) and East Southeast (ESE). At the same time, it has also been figured out at the end of the study that there is absolutely no change in the direction of the wind where it blows dominantly during these five years. In this direction, it has been seen that there is no effective change in the direction of dominant winds accordingly in years in that area and a year of measurement would be highly enough to determine the dominant wind direction in the area. Keywords: Renewable energy, wind energy, wind direction, wind tribune, wind speed. 1. INTRODUCTION Renewable energy resources are seen as an important source with an increasing interest all over the world in covering the energy requirement owing to the fact that the environmental problems increase every other day and the fossile energy sources gradually decrease (Özerdem, 2003). Due to the fossil resources decreasing day by day and the environmental problems increasing , renewable energy resources are met with an increasing interest all over the world and seen as significant sources in meeting the need for energy. The wind energy whose usage and technology develop most quickly among these renewable energy resources comes on top of all (Kose and Ozgur, 2004). When that wind energy is both local source and clean and nature-friendly is taken into consideration, that it has an important part in solving the problems of our day can be seen (Kose, 2004). When 1 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo all these factors are taken into account, trying to compensate the needs with renewable energy resources will both reduce the environmental pollution and increase the life span of reserves by limiting the usage amount of fossil resources which have been decreasing every other day. Consequently, research on these matters should continually be strengthened and supported (Aydin, 2008). In this study, the wind measurements have been done hourly for five years and consequently the dominant wind direction have been found out as North Northeast (NNE) and East Southeast (ESE). At the same time, it has also been figured out at the end of the study that there is absolutely no change in the direction of the wind where it blows dominantly during these five years. In this direction, it has been seen that there is no effective change in the direction of dominant winds accordingly in years in that area and a year of measurement would be highly enough to determine the dominant wind direction in the area. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS 2.1.Wind Calculations In order to be able to make correct calculations in a measuring station, the locations of the equipments within the measuring stations and the distance between them are crucial (Ozgur, 2006). These equipments consist of measuring poles, sensors and data storage units. In measuring stations, the ideal height of the upper anemometer should be 30 meters above the ground and 20 meters above the lower anemometer. The direction control apparatus should be placed 1.5 meters lower than the upper anemometer (Sen, 2003). In order to design, plan and operate the wind energy systems, it is crucial to know all the characteristics of the winds in detail. Long lasting reliable data are necessitated so as to determine the positioning of turbines and the potential of wind energy (Nogay and Taskin, 2000). Wind velocity calculations are the most significant and crucial measurings for determining the annul energy savings, stabilizing the performance and investing the sources of winds (Ackerman and Soder, 2002). In order to benefit from the wind energy efficiently, the detailed reports of the wind characteristics should be provided in a particular location. In order to determine the wind potential of a specific zone, the calculations of the zone mentioned should be provided at least for a whole year. However, A larger period than a year will provide you with more accurate assessments. 2.2. The Situation of the Wind Energy in the Province of Manisa The distribution of the wind stations among the districts in Manisa is displayed in the figure 1. According to this drawing, the total installed power had reached for 293.80 MW till the October of 2011 in Manisa. In Turkey, since the January of 2011, 15 wind stations have been installed, reaching an overall of 72 in the whole country. Akres-Akhisar wind station in Bekirler village in Manisa-Akhisar formed by the Best-Karesi Energy Company was opened in 11.09.2011. With the joining of 45 MW installed power in Akhisar into the overall cycle, the installed energy of Turkey has reached 1600 megawatts, 2 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo while Turkey’s investment has reached 1.6 billion Euros. Manisa forms almost %18.36 of Turkey with its 293.80 MW. And this is a very high proportion. Fig. 1: The distrıbutıon of the wind stations among the distrıcts in Manisa (Aydin, 2012) 3. RESULTS 3.1. Measuring the Directions of Dominating Winds in Manisa Measuring in which directions the winds are moving predominantly is a crucial matter in determining the locations of turbines. As a result of hourly measurements in Manisa for five years, the moving directions and velocity rates of 8760 winds have been stated. These measure rates obtained with the aid of Manisa Region Directorship of Meteorology have been exhibited in Excel and by using this software, it has been possible to determine how many hours, at what directions and velocity the winds have been blowing for a year. These results have been evaluated in Excel and the wind rose displayed in the drawing ‘Figure 2-3-45’ has been acquired. As a result of the wind measuring results conducted in Manisa, the dominating wind direction has been stated as (NNE) North East North and (ESE) East South East. It has been concluded that during the installation of the system, it would be more appropriate to pay attention to leaving this particular direction through which the wind velocity is predominant open in order to benefit more from the turbine. In this direction, it has been seen that there is no effective change in the direction of dominant winds accordingly in years in that area and a year of measurement would be highly enough to determine the dominant wind direction in the area. 3 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Fig. 2: Wind Rose(2005) Fig. 3: Wind Rose (2006) Fig. 4: Wind Rose (2007) 4 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Fig. 5: Wind Rose (2008) (Aydin, 2012) 4. CONCLUSION In this study, the wind measurements have been done hourly for five years and consequently the dominant wind direction have been found out as North Northeast (NNE) and East Southeast (ESE). At the same time, it has also been figured out at the end of the study that there is absolutely no change in the direction of the wind where it blows dominantly during these five years. In this direction, it has been seen that there is no effective change in the direction of dominant winds accordingly in years in that area and a year of measurement would be highly enough to determine the dominant wind direction in the area. REFERENCES Özerdem, B., The Development and the Future of Wind Energy Practices in Turkey, 9th Energy Congress Turkey, World Energy Council Turkish National Commitee, 65-73 s, Izmir,2003. Köse, R., Özgür, M.A., Research of Wind Energy Potentials in Dumlupınar University Campus, DPU Science Journal, Issue 5, 187-196 s, Kütahya, 2003. Köse, R., An evaluation of wind energy potential as a power generation source in Kütahya, Turkey, Energy Conversion and Management, 45:1631-1641 p,2004. Aydın, İ., Gaining Electricity with A Small Powerful Autonomous Wind Energy Circulation, MA Thesis, Dumlupınar University, Kütahya, 2008. Özgür, M.A., Statistical Analysis of Wind Characteristic and Its Feasibility for Electricity Production Kütahya, Dissertation, Osman Gazi University, Eskişehir, 2006. Şen, Ç., Meeting Gokceada’s Need for Electric Energy with Wind Energy, MA Thesis, Dokuz Eylül University, İzmir, 2003. Noğay, S., Taşkın, S., Power Performence on Wind Turbines, Measurements of Noise and Velocity, 3rd National Clean Energy Symposium, Volume I, s385. İstanbul, 2000. 5 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Ackerman T., Söder, L., An Overvief of Wind Energy - Rewiews Status 2002, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Rewiews, Vol. 6, 67-128 p.,2002. AWS Scientific Inc., Wind resource assessment handbook, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1997. Aydın, İ., Yılmaz, S.S., The determination of dominant wind speed to increase efficiency of wind energy in Manisa province, 1st International Conference on Architecture and Urban Design, 19-21 April., Tirana-Albania, 2012. Environmental Welding: The Friction Stir Welding Selim Sarper Yilmaz1, Bekir Sadık Ünlü2, İbrahim Aydin2 1Celal Bayar University, Vocational High School, Department of Machinery, 45020, Manisa, Turkey 2Celal Bayar University, Faculty of Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, 45040, Manisa, Turkey E-mails: selim.yilmaz@cbu.edu.tr, bekir.unlu@cbu.edu.tr, ibrahim.aydin@cbu.edu.tr Abstract In this study, microstructural and mechanical properties of pure aluminum joined by friction stir weldingusing different parameters were investigated. Hardness, tensile, bending and impact mechanics tests were applied to the welded samples.In addition, optical and SEM tests were carried out. The effects of the welding progress rate on the microstructure and mechanical properties were investigated in these materials.Then, the optimal conditions for friction stir welding were determined for pure aluminum. Keywords:Friction stir welding, aluminum alloy, microstructure, mechanical properties. 1. INTRODUCTION Aluminum metal and its alloys are economical and attractive material due to their superior mechanical properties. These features include the appearance, lightness, ease of production, physical and mechanical properties and corrosion strength. Aluminum is known for two mechanical properties; namely, lightness and corrosion resistance. The weight of aluminium is approximately a third of the same volume steel, aluminum, copper or brass and its specific gravity is 2.7 g/cm3. Aluminum has an excellent atmosphere, water, salt water, oil 6 corrosion resistance against and many chemicals. the In � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1220 Title A name given to the resource Green Technologies And Strategies The Detarmination Of The Direction Of Wind According To The Years Author Author İbrahim , Aydın Abstract A summary of the resource. Renewable energy sources are seen as an important source in meeting the requirement of energy increasing gradually. One of these most outstanding renewable energy sources is the wind energy whose technology and usage develops most rapidly. To be able to make use of the wind energy effectively, it should be cared that the dominant wind speed direction should be open enough in surrounding. In this direction, to benefit from these wind tribunes more effectively the wind measures must be done the montage of these tribunes should also be done taking into consideration of these dominant open directions. In this study, the wind measurements have been done hourly for five years and consequently the dominant wind direction have been found out as North Northeast (NNE) and East Southeast (ESE). At the same time, it has also been figured out at the end of the study that there is absolutely no change in the direction of the wind where it blows dominantly during these five years. In this direction, it has been seen that there is no effective change in the direction of dominant winds accordingly in years in that area and a year of measurement would be highly enough to determine the dominant wind direction in the area. Keywords: Renewable energy, wind energy, wind direction, wind tribune, wind speed. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/bbdb08c3ce79f7f2bc9c20807a606cbc.pdf 97a40ae592fa53b1cedbe071617ae418 PDF Text Text 8. Velde, V.D., Nevens, S., Hee, F.V., Steenberghe, P.V., Quirynen, D.; 2008, GC-NS analysis of breath odor compounds in liver patients, Journal of chromatography b-analytical Technologies in the biomedical and life sciences vol:875 issue:2 ,344-348 9. Merler, S., C. Furlanello, B. Larcher and A. Sboner, 2001. Tuning Cost Sensitive Boosting and its Application to Melanoma Diagnosis, In MCS 2001, Cambridge, UK, 2096: 32-42. 10. Pardo, M. and G. Niederjaunfner, 2000. Data Preprocessing Enhances the Classification of Different Brands of Espresso Coffee with an Electronic Nose. Sensors & Actuators B, 69. 11. Shilbayeh, N.F. and M.Z. Iskandarani, 2004. Quality Control of Coffee Using an Electronic Nose System. Am. J. Applied Sci., 1: 129-135. 12. Persaud, K.C.; Dodd, G. Analysis of discrimination mechanisms in the mammalian olfactory system using a model nose. Nature 1982, 299, 352-355. 13. Casalinuovo IA, Di Pierro D, Coletta M, and Di Francesco P. 2006. Application of electronic noses for disease diagnosis and food spoilage detection. Sensors 6:1428–1439. Enzyme Supplementation to Soybean Based Diet in Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Effects on Growth Parameters and Nitrogen and Phosphorus Digestibility İbrahim Diler 1,Hüseyin Sevgili 2 ,Yılmaz Emre 2,Halit Bayrak 1 1 Department of Aquaculture, Süleyman Demirel University, 32100, Isparta-TURKEY 2 Mediterranean Fisheries Research, Production and Training Institute, P.O190, Antalya, Turkey E-mail: ibrahimdiler@sdu.edu.tr Abstract The aim of the this study was to examine the effects of the diets based on Soybean Meal (40%) supplemented with exogenous enzymes on growth performance, feed utilization, apparent digestibility and reduce environment pollution waste output of nitrogen and phosphorus in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) culture. Trout groups (initial weight 87.00±1,5) method of random plots with 3 replications of 50 fish/pond with the ratio of 1050 fish in the concrete ponds. Diets consisted of 25% fish meal (FM) and 40% dehulled hexane extracted soybean meal (SBM) in control group (C0) and diet supplemented with protease enzyme (PRT; 2g/kg-1), diet supplemented with enzyme cocktail (MIX; cellulose, xylanase, endo-ß-1,3:1,4-glucanase; 2g/kg-1) and diet supplemented with pyhtase enzyme (PHY; 2g/kg-1). About of growth performance were found while condition factor (1,21-1,23) were statistically similar (p>0.05), however specific growth rate, SGR, (1,118-1,340) and feed conversion ratio, FCR, (1,26-1,30) were obtained significantly different among groups (p<0,05). PRT and PHY groups significantly improved SGR and FCR better than control group. In this study, showed the highest nitrogen apperent digestibility coefficient, ADC (85,49±1,98) in PRT group while, the poorest value obtained (72,82±0.01) C0 group 369 �respectively (p<0,05). Also the best (58.57±0.49) and lowest (42.85±1.98) ADC was obtained PHT and C0 groups for phosphorus respectively (p<0,05). Keywords: rainbow trout, enzyme, growth performance, nitrogen, phosphorus, digestibility 1.INTRODUCTION Natural feed additives as referred to the use of enzymes; made in the areas of biotechnology and animal feed baits, intensive research has become common parallel developments in nowadays (Nir and Senköylü 2000). Developments in biotechnology, with a significant effect in feeding the fish is quite expensive but can be substituted for fish meal with plant-based raw materials to be used in a more effective and beneficial, increasing digestibility, reduction factors of antinutritional have opened new horizons in the use of these feeds as effective. The most appropriate herbal product.is soybean meal feed raw materials of vegetable origin that can be used instead of fish meal in fish feeds affordability, availability and nutritional value in the markets. The addition of enzyme increases of nutrition value, because of non-starch polysaccharide in soybean meal feed value limited (Deguara et al. 1999, Hardy 2000, Hardy and Gatlin 2002, Cho and Bureau 2003). Enzyme with the use of lower-priced raw materials from more expensive raw materials used in equal and sometimes better performance (Deguara et al. 1999, Nir and Senköylü, 2000). Feed manufacturers are prefers dry and granular enzymes, because of its importance in terms of homogeneous distribution of enzyme activity instead of liquid enzyme preparations (Collier and Hardy 1986, Inbor 1990). Usually the most limiting factor in plant development is phosphorus in freshwater and is nitrogen in the seas. The majority of phosphorus in vegetable feed ingredients commonly used (50-80%), phytic acid or phytate-bound form is found and undigestibility by the monogastric animals. Such animals hasn‘t got any enzymes to break down phytate and phosphorus reveals, adding has been sufficient amount of the phytase enzyme feed stuffs in the structure of phytate phosphorus digestibility remain free (Lantzsch 1989, Sugiura et al. 2000, Sugiura et al. 2001, Saçaklı 2002). Microbial phytase enzyme is effective in reducing environmental pollution by fecal excretion of phosphorus caused, depending on the form of phytic phosphorus in feedstuffs monogastric animal diets vegetarian diet significantly increases of evaluation. (Gibson and Ulah 1990, Graham and Inborr 1993, Gordon and Roland 1997). Discarded and retained in reducing the level of nitrogen and phosphorus levels are the key strategies in the ration protein level needed to keep the fish, the energy: protein and amino acid digestibility of high raw materials (Vergara et al. 1996, Sugiura and Hardy 2000, Cho and Bureau 2003). In fish fed is observed and improvement in performance additon of enzymes addition increased the digestibility of the nutrients, specific growth rate and protein efficiency ratio and a marked improvement (Tandler and Kolkovski 1992, Deguara 1998, Deguara et al. 1999, Ayhan et al. 2008). The aim of this study, with the addition to fish feed as protease enzyme, enzyme cocktails and phytase enzyme, more efficient use of raw materials of vegetable origin, fresh water fish feaces and discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus excretion, thus reducing the environmental pollution, increase growth performance, feed conversion to raise the utilization efficiency. 370 �2.MATERIALS AND METHODS Fish and texperimental design: Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss, initial weigh 87,0±1,5g), used in the experiment were obtained from the Ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock, Institute of Mediterranean Fisheries Research, Production & Training, Kepez Unit, Antalya. As a triplicates the design with 4 groups of 50 fish per group for a total of 600 pieces of fish are grouped according to the random subdivision method. Trial; a 6,3 m3 capacity were 4 pieces of concrete ponds. Each concrete pond was seperated equal to 2,1 m3 in capacity for three section. Feed materials: Feeds in the experiment were prepared at feed prepare units in the institution. Utilization rate of feedstuffs used in the experiment and prepared feeds and nutrient contents in the feed are given in Table 1. As a dietary supplement protease enzyme, the enzyme cocktail and phytase enzyme were used. Trial feed grinding-mixing-ratios given in Table 1 was passed through a pelletizing operations. The ration was obtained and pelletted, 50 kg.hour-1 capacity in dry press-pellet machinery. Feeds were stored at +4°C the cooling cabinet. During the experiment, the total feed intake and feed digestibility with biometric measurements were analyzed. In feed and feaces has been analysed dry matter, crude protein, crude fat and crude ash by Weende Analysis and phosphorus analysis according to the method of Vanadat (AOAC, 1995). The digestible energy values calculated in MJ.kg-1 (New, 1987). Chromic oxide, and digestibility of feed and feaces for analysis and the growth performance and value were determined by Steffens 1989; Goddard 1996). Table 1. Ingerdients, nutrient composition, growth performance and digestibility of experiment trial 1 -1 I N G R E D I E N T S, (g.kg ) Fish meal Soybean meal Full fat soybean meal Blood meal Wheat middlings Menhaden oil 2 Vitamin premix 3 Mineral premix 4 Vitamin C Choline 5 Pellet binder 6 7 Chromic oxide Antioxidant 8 9 Allzyme Vegpro Roxazyme-G 10 Ronozyme-P 11 TOTAL Nutrition composition Dry matter, % Crude protein, % Crude oil, % Crude cellulose, % 371 DIETS C0 1 PRT1 MIX1 PHY1 25 40 9,.22 5 9,23 7 2 1 0,3 0,15 0,4 0,4 0,3 25 40 9,12 5 9,13 7 2 1 0,3 0,.15 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,2 25 40 9,12 5 9,13 7 2 1 0,3 0,.15 0,4 0,4 0,3 25 40 9,12 5 9,13 7 2 1 0,3 0,.15 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,2 100,00 100,00 100,00 0,2 100,00 92,33 44,85 13,36 3,25 92,92 44,72 12,45 3,25 91,94 42,81 13,52 3,25 93,54 43,14 11,89 3,25 �Crude ash, % Metabolizable energy, (MJ. kg –1) Calcium, % Phosphorus, % Lysine, % Methionine+cystine, % Growth Performance Initial Weight (g)43 Final 6Weight (g) SGR 7 FCR CF 8 Digestibility ADC Dry matter % 12 ADC Protein % 12 13,74 14,.39 1,09 1,45 3,17 1,50 76,0±11,5 208,0±5,0b 1,118±0,02b 1,29±0.01a 1,21±0,01 15,15 14,.39 1,09 1,45 3,17 1,50 11,38 14,39 1,09 1,45 3,17 1,50 12,29 14,39 1,09 1,45 3,17 1,50 76,1±0,5 75,0±2,5 75,0±1,5 211,0±1,5a 206,0±5,5ab 206,0±5,5ab 1,340±0,02a 1,122±0,02ab 1,290±0,02ab 1,26±0.01b 1,30±0,01a 1,27±0.01b 1,23±0.01 1,22±0,04 1,23±0,04 63,79±0,49bc 68,73±1.52c 61,58±0,03b 66,92±0,52a 85,03±0,75ab 87,42±l,17c 86,96±0,55b 87,21±0,46a ADC Nitrogen % 12 72,82±0.15b 85,491.98c 69,711.19b 78,950.68a ADC Phosphorus % 12 42,85±0.58a 48,77±2.01a 45,69±0.48a 58,57±0.49b 1 Data (mean±SD) with different letters within a row are significantly different (p<0.05). 2 C0: Control group, no added enzyme, PRT: Protease group: 2%o protease; MIX: Mix group : 2%o enzyme cookteyl; PHT: Phytase group : 2%o phytase 3 Vitamin mixture; Included of per kg; 18.000 IU A, 2000 IU D, 200 mg E, 12 mg K, 150 mg B2, 20 mg B1, 0,05 mg B12, 20 mg pyridoxine, 10 mg panthotenic acid, 220 mg niacine, 120 mg inositol, 5 mg folic acid, 0,5 mg biotine, 2000 mg choline. 4 Mineral mixture: Included of per kg: 70 mg zinc, 60 mg mangenese, 60 mg magnesium, 4 mg ferro, 2 mg copper, 1.5 mg iode, 0.5 mg cobalt, 0.05 mg selenium. 5 Vitamin C, Hoffman La-Roche Inc. 6 Choline, Ufuk Kimya İlaç San. ve Tic. Ltd. Sti Istanbul. 7 Lignosulphanate, 8 Cr2O4, Merck 9 Buthylhidroxitoluoen, (powder form) 10 Allzyme Vegpro, All-Tech Inc. 11 Roxazyme G, Hoffman La-Roche Inc. 12 Ronozyme-P, Hoffman La-Roche Inc. 13 Body weight of initial (WI) 14 Body weight of final (WF) 15 Specific growth rate, SGR (%/day) = ((Ln final body weight – Ln initial body weight)/days) x 100 16 Feed conversion ratio, FCR = dry feed intake (g) / weight gain (g). 17 Condition factor = (W/L3) x 100 18 Apparent Digesitbility Coefficient (ADC) = 100 – (100 x ((Cr2O3 in diet, % / Cr2O3 in feaces, %) x (nutrient in feaces, % / nutrient in diets, %)) Experimental process: Total duration of the experiment, was carried out in 14 weeks including 2 weeks of adaptation time. During the experiment, a biometric measurements were made every two weeks. During the trial, daily feed intake is calculated depending on the temperature of the water and total live weight from 1.5 to 3%. Feeding was 2 times per day (09:00am, 16:00pm). Each fish in the tank every two weeks weighed in bulk. Trial groups from 14.5 to 18.5°C change in water temperature, dissolved oxygen 7.84 ± 0.46 mg.L-1, 7.78 ± 0.06 pH, ammonia and nitrite 0001 0:01 to 0:10 mg.L-1 was determined to be. The study of natural fotoperyot (15 daylight: 9 nightlight ) were applied. Digestive work: 15 days trial period at the end of the experiment the fish groups fed in the milking stools on a daily basis via the -20°C until analyzed were collected and incubated freezer. After analysis of nutrient digestibility in feed and feces rates calculated Apparent Digestibility Coefficient, ADC (Steffens 1989; Goddard 1996). 372 �Statistical analysis: The results of the trial groups were analysed by one-way analyses of variance (ANOVA) with Duncan's multiple comparison tests used to determine the groups which are responsible for the difference, made with SAS 5.0 statistical package. Significance was tested at the p=0,05 level and homogeneity of variance was performed by Levene test and variance was found to be homogenous (Orhan et al., 2004). 3.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1.Growth performance in trial groups Data on body weight gain and performance criteria of the trial groups given in Table 1. Table 1 According to the Tablo 1 in terms of initial live weight there was no difference statistically significant (p>0.05) but at the end of the experiment statistically significant difference between groups (p<0.05). Thus, specific growth, SGR, in data, the best value protease (PRT, 1.340±0,02) and phytase (PHY, 1.290±0,02) group was obtained. The lowest value by SGR phytase (C0 1.1150,02) group was obtained (Table 2, p<0,05). In terms of feed conversion ratio the best (lowest) value was obtained protease (PRT, 1.26±0,01) group and the worst (highest) of the mix group (MIX 1,30±0,01) (Table 1, p<0,05). Condition factor (CF)were obtained the best value PRT (1,23±0,01) and PHY, 1,23±0,04) groups, while the lowest in C0 group (1,20±0,01) (Table 1, p<0.05). Deguara‘s (1998) study was obtained avg. 50g. seabream fish were added fish meal 26% +soybean meal 32% of the study, 26% basic diets trial groups by 0,01% protease+alphagalactosidase enzyme with low pH and high pH protease+alpha-galactosidase enzymes. Study in terms of live weight than the control group with low pH protease+alpha-galactosidase enzyme supplemented group of about 18 g. while providing a increasing, a high pH protease+alpha-galactosidase enzyme according to the control group was obtained from 10 g good growth. 25%+40% soybean meal based on fish meal similar to the results of the trial group with Deguara's study protease (PRT) and phytase (PHY) enzyme-supplemented groups, the growth has been between 4-6 g live weight than the other groups (Table 1). Deguara's (1998) study, the control group in terms of specific growth rate of 0.53% protease+alphagalactosidase enzyme to grow, but with low pH and high pH group, 0.77% protease+alphagalactosidase enzyme group,% 0.71 a value of was obtained. In this study about of SGR, the control group (C0) 1.12% although, the best growth of the protease (PRT, 1.34%) and phytase (PHY, 1.29%) groups, a similar growth trend was observed (Table 1, p<0,05). Deguara‘s (1998) study were obtained control group in terms of feed conversion coefficient of 2.62, but with low pH value, enzyme protease+alpha-galactosidase group of high pH protease+alphagalactosidase enzyme group, 2.18 and 2.46 value. Yan et al., (2001) in their study, 12.4g The channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus), addition of phytase (0, 500, 1000, 2000, 4000, 8000 unit.kg-1) fed, 0.57% 0,16% usefull of total phosphorus between, there was no effect in weight gain, but feed consumption was higher than in the control group reported. In our study by feed conversion coefficient, PRT (1,26) and PHY (1,27) groups enzyme-supplemented groups, particularly the control (1,29) group to a more positive level that is lower than for other groups were obtained (Table 1, p<0,05). Similarly Jahan et al (2001), carp and tilapia fingerlings diets in combination karbonhidrase and protease enzyme has an additional 19% increase in weight and mirror carp, more increased 5% in FCR, more value 16% in SGR and had improved, while 9% tilapiada stated that the weight gain. Our study is based on the values 373 �of the FCR and protease enzymes, especially phytase supplemented groups provided a positive contribution to the utilization of the feed can be said. This is because the fish with vegetable protein sources by means of the enzyme phytase phytic phosphat considered to be useful in making the result can be assumed. Terms of condition factor Deguara (1998)'s study in gilthead seabream fish was obtained, in control group, 1.42 value, in alpha-galactosidase enzyme with low pH protease group, 1.49 value and a high pH protease+alpha-galactosidase, group 1, 44 value. In our study, trout condition factor ranged from 1.21 to 1,23 value (Table 1, p<0,05). 3.2.Nitrogen-phosphorus digestibility (ADC) in trial goups In terms of the value of nitrogen digestibility in the trial groups were obtained the high digestibility of 85.49% protease (PRT)and the lowest digestibility 69.71% enzyme cocktail (MIX) group. The control group (C0) with 72.82% in the second last. In the same way by phosphorus digestibility among groups with the highest digestibility value of 86.58% phytase (PHY) 74.99% and lowest value in the control group (C0)74,99% (Tablo 1, p<0.05). Digesitbility (%) Digesitbility (N-P and Protein, %) 400 300 200 100 ADC- P 48,77 58,57 42,85 45,69 72,8285,4969,7178,95 66,9268,7361,5863,79 85,0387,4286,9687,21 0 C0 PRT MIX PHY Trial of Groups ADC- N ADC Dry matter ADC Protein, Fig 1. Digestibility nitrogen-phosphorus and dry matter-protein in experimental diets (%) Digestibility of nitrogen were mesured at feed and feaces in experimental groups, which is one of the media in order to determine what percentage of the amount of nitrogen and fecal nitrogen values. If you need to compare the groups in terms of enzyme-supplemented groups less than the control group to be noted that levels of nitrogen excretion (Table 1). Ramseyer and Garling (1998) reported without any additives in fish feeds were assessed 30% of the nitrogen by the body and discarded of 70% in feaces and urine, and feeding was assessed 32% of the phosphorus by the body and discarded of 68% with the urine and feaces. In our study, nitrogen values of between 6,41% - to 6,63% in feed. Based on measurements of nitrogen derived from nitrogen digestibility were obtained minimum percent of 69.72±0.01 in control group (C0) while, the addition of percent of 83,2±1,98 PRT and 81,25±0,68 in PHY supplemented group. Generrally in rainbow trout need to 0.5 to 0.8% of digestible phosphorus in feed, but should be find approximately 1,5 times more phosphorus in that value (Ketola and Harland 1993;Ketola and Richmond 1994; Garcia-Ruiz and Hail 1996). Phytate in the same way, the 374 �total phosphorus in plant protein sources 70% of the phytate phosphorus monogastric animals (fish) are considered very low (Lall, 1991). Phytate phosphorus; channel fish, trout and salmon (Ketola and Richmond 1994), redseabream (NRC,1993) and carp phytase enzyme can not be assessed adequately. This is why the commercial phytase enzyme by the addition of vegetable protein sources in fish feed for fish, the phosphorus becomes evaluated (Riche and Brown, 1996). In feeding studies have found by Lanari et al. (1998) 2% rate of phosphorus excretion in the control group, 1,8g.kg-1 of phytase supplemented group and 0,89g.kg-1 was found. In the same study, 115,.3 g. trout fish of 33% soy trout feed 1000 IU/kg of added phytase enzyme was added at the end of the study group, 9.52% phosphorus digestibility (control group: 58.01%; phytase enzyme group: 68.1% (p<0.01) an increase. Schafer et al. (1994) investigeted by the juvenile carp fish 25%, suggests that the excretion of phosphorus phytase supplemented group. However Deguara (1998) has founded 45.66% of the phosphorus digestibility in the control group, but with low pH value, protease+alphagalactosidase enzyme group, 59.52% and 53.68% as a group of high pH protease+alphagalactosidase. In our study, phosphorus obtained 1.44 to 1.53% in feed while the experimental group (Table 1) by measurements digestibility of phosphorus were identified in the control group was percent of 42.85 while, percent of 48.77 in the protease and percent of 58.57 as phytase group (p<0,05). In plant-based feed find the phosphorus, while which is available at a limited level for the fish to be in the form of phytic acid (Sugiura and Hardy, 2000; Cheng and Hardy, 2002; Lall 1991), but Riche and Brown (1999) and Satoh et al (2003) according to by the studies, the plant protein sources rations based on the availability of more high phosphorus showed, this feed is shown as a control group to include more low phophorus and calcium. While many studies of enzyme supplementation of diets are usually small, such as fry or fingerlings while achieving positive results in individuals, Degura (1998) and this study shows that the big fish in a similar positive results are obtained. Fixing only the performance of these positive results, but also allows the use of fish meal diet, less level. However, similar studies are needed anyway. As a result of, in the raw materials of herbal origin digesitbility of phythin phosphat better to increase of fish feed nitrogen and phosphorus to take advantage of an additional increase of the protease and phytase enzymes, enzyme-supplemented groups had higher rates of nitrogen and phosphorus retention (ie, a higher rate digestibility by the fish's body) in this study were determined. In the same way in aqauculture, environmental pollution is responsible for the largest food nitrogen and phosphorus into the water excretion rate of feaces from the addition of protease, and phytase enzyme were found to be lower in groups. This would mean reducing the parameters of the results of pollution from aquaculture feed. Water left in an improvement of nitrogen-phosphorus ratio of unity, even one in a thousand of waters and protection of the environment adds value to a very positive sense. These studies are possible by increasing the feed rates of reducing pollution from water. Acknowledgements: The authors thank to the study was funded by the Ministry of Food Agriculture and Livestock The General Directory Research Agriculture. The help of Allzyme in supplying protease and Roche Inc. in supplying Roxazyme-G and Ronozyme-P is gratefully acknowledged. 375 �REFERANCE Allzyme Vegpro 7.7.7. (2004) Aquaculture Technical Dossier, Biotechnological Center, Corporate Headquarters, 3031 Catrip Hill Pike, Nicholasville, KY 40356. AOAC (1995) Official Methods Arlington, VA. of Analysis of AOAC International, 16th Ed., Vol.1 Ayhan V, Diler I, Arabaci M, Sevgili H. (2008) Enzyme supplementation to soybean based diet in gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata): Effects on growth parameters and nitrogen and phosphorus excretion, Univ. Of Kafkas, Journal of Veterinary Medicine, ISSN:1309–2251, Article Code: 2008/33-A 14(2):161-168. Cheng Z.J. and Hardy R.W. (2002) Effect of Microbial Phytase on Apparent Nutrient Digestibility of Barley, Canola Meal, Wheat and Wheat Middlings, Measured in vivo Using Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), Aquaculture Nutrition, Vol.8:4, 271-277. Collier B. and Hardy R. (1986) The use of enzymes in pig and poultry feeds, Feedstuffs, March, 14-19. Cho Y. and Brueau D.P. (2003) A Review of Diet Formulation Strategies and Feeding Systems to Reduce Excretory and Feed Wastes in Aquaculture. Aquaculture Research, 32:5, 349-360. Deguara S. (1998) Effect of supplementary enzymes on the growth and feed utilization of gilthead sea bream, Sparus aurata L (Thesis submitted for the degree of doctor of phylosophy). Institute of Aquaculture University of Stirling FK9 4LA, Scotland. Deguara S-, Jauncey K, Feord J, Lopez J. (1999) Growth and feed utilization of gilthead sea bream, Sparus aurata, fed diets with supplementary enzymes, Feed manufacturing in the Mediterranean Region,CIHEAM-ASFAC, Vol.37, Cah.Options Mediterr., 195-215. De Silva S, Anderson T.A. (1995) Fish Nutrition in Aquaculture, Chapman & Hall Inc., 1995, 137-138. Garcia-Ruiz R. and Hail G.H. (1996) Phosphorus fractionation and mobility in the food and faeces of hatchery reared rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), Aquaculture,145, 183-193. Gibson D.M, Ulah A.H.J. (1990) Phytase and their actions onphytic acid. (In: D. J. Morre, W.F. Boss, F. A. Loewus, Inositol metabolism in plants., Ed.: Wiley-Liss, Inc., New York. Goddard S. (1996) Feed Management in Intensive Aquaculture, Chapman & Hall Press, p.194. Gordon R.W. and Roland D.A. (1997) Performance of commercial laying hens fed various phosphorus levels, with and without supplemental phytase. Poultry Sci.76, 1172-1178. Graham H. and Inborr J. (1993) Enzymes in monogastric feeding, Agro-Industry Hi-Tech, 45-48. Hardy R.W. (2000) New Developments in Aquatic Feed Ingredients, and Potential of Enzyme Supplements. In: Cruz-Suarez, L.E., Ricque-Marie, D., Tapia-Salazar, M., Olvera-Novoa, and Civera-Cerecedo, R., (Eds.). Avaces en Nutricion Acuicola V. Memorias del V Simposium Internacional de Nutricion Acuicola. 19-22 Noviembre, Merida, Yutacan, Mexico, 216-226. Hardy R.W. and Gatlin D.M. (2002) Nutritional Strategies to Reduce Nutrient Losses in Intensive Aquaculture. In: Cruz-Suarez, L.E., Ricque-Marie, D., Tapia-Salazar, M., Gaxiola376 �Cortes, M.G. Simoes, N.,(Eds.). Avaces en Nutricion Acuicola VI. Memorias del VI Simposium Internacional de Nutricion Acuicola. 3 al de Septembre, Mexico, 23-34. Inborr J.(1990) Practical application of feed enzymes, Feed International, October, 16-27. Jahan, P., Watanabe, T., Satoh, S., Kiron, V. (2001) Formulation of Low Phosphorus Loading Diets for carp (Cyprinus carpio L.), Aquaculture Research, 32, 361-368. Ketola H.G. and Harland B.F. (1993) Influence of phosphorus in rainbow trout diets on phosphorus discharges in effluent water. Trans am Fish Soc, 122, 1120-1126. Ketola, HG, Richmond ME (1994) Requirement of Rainbow Trout for Dietary Phosphorus and Its Relationship to the Amount Discharged in Hatchery Effluents, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, 123(4) 587-594. Lall S. (1991) Digestibility, metabolism and excretion of dietary phosphorus in fish, In, Cowey CB, Cho CY, (Eds): Nutritional Strategies and Aquaculture Wastws. Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Nutritional Strategies in Management of Aquaculture Wastes, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, 21-36. Lanari D, D'Agora E, Turri C. (1998) Use of nonlinear regression to evaluate the effects of phytase enzyme treatment of plant protein diets for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), Aquaculture, 161, 345-356. Lantzsch H.J. (1989) Einführung und Stand Verfügbarkeit des Phosphors beitn Schwein. Fachausschss Futterphosphate, 53-77. der In: Diskussion zur intestinalen Industrieverband Agrare. V., New M. (1987) Feed and Feeding Fish and Shrimp: A Manual on the Preparation and Presantation of Compound Feeds for Shrimp and Fish in Aquaculture, FAO, ADCP, Rep. 87/26, Rome-Italy. Nir I, Senköylü N. (2000) Sindirimi Destekleyen Yem Katkı Maddeleri, Tekirdağ Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Yemler ve Hayvan Besleme Bölümü, 41-75. NRC (1993) Nutrient Requirements of Fish. National Academy Press, Washington. DC, USA, Orhan H, Efe E, Sahin M. (2004) SAS software with statstical analyses, Tuğra Press, Isparta. ISBN: 975-270-435-2. Ramseyer L.J. and Garling D.L. (1998) Fish nutrition and aquaculture waste management, URL: http://aquanic.org/public/state/il-iii/ccs/garling.pdf. Riche M. and Brown P.B. Availability of phosphorus from feedstuffs fed to rainbow trout, (Oncorhynchus mykiss), Aquacultııre, 142 (1996) pp.269-282. Riche, M. and Brown, P. B. (1999) Incorporation of Plant Protein Feedstuffs into Fish Meal Diets for Rainbow Trout Increases Phosphorus Availability, Aquaculture Nutrition, 5,101105. ROCHE (2001) Roxazyme-G, Ronozyme-P, Roche Müstehzarları Sanayi, A.Ş., P.O Box, 16, 80640, Levent-Istanbul-TURKEY, URL: www.roche-com Sacakli, P. (2001) Kanatlılarda fıtat fosforunun önemi ve fıtaz kullanımı, KATKI, Interkim Kimya Sanayi Ith. Ihr. Tic. A.ş. Public. Vol.5, 13, 2-4. 377 �Satoh, S., Hernández, A., Tokoro, T., Morshita, Y., Kiron, V., Watanabe, T., Comparision of Phosphorus Retention Efficiency between Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Fed a Commercial Diet and a Low Fish Meal Based Diet, Aquaculture, 224 (2003) pp.271-282. Schafer A, Koppe W.M, Meyer-Burgdorff K.H, Günther K.D. (1994) Effects of a microbial phtase on the utilisation of native phosphorus in a soybean meal based diet in carp. Proc. of the 2nd Inter. Symposium on Nutritional Strategies in Management of Aquaculture Waste, 24-27 April 1994, Aalborg, RK., Univ.of Guelph, Ontario, Canada, 32-33. Steffens W. Principles of Fish Nutrition, Ellis Horwood, Chichester, 1989, p.384. Sugiura S.H. and Hardy R.W. (2000) Enviromentally Friendly Feeds, Ed: R.Stickney, Encyclopedia of Aquaculture, John Wiley & Sons Inc. New-York, 5, 299-310. Sugiura S.H, Dong F.M, Hardy R.W. (2000) A new approach to estimating the minimum dietary requirements of phosphorus for large rainbow trout based non-fecal excretions of phosphorus and nitrogen. Journal of Nutrition, 130, 865-872. Sugiura S.H, Gabaudan J, Dong F.M, Hardy, R.W. (2001) Dietary microbial phytase supplementation and the utilization of phosphorus, trace minerals and protein by rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum), fed soybean meal-based diets. Aquaculture Research, 32, 7, 583-592. Tandler A. and Kolkovski S. (1992) Rates of Ingestion and Digestibility as Limiting Factors in the Successful Application of Microdiets in Gilthead Seabream, Sparus aurata, Larvae, Journal of Aquaculture, Bamidgeh, 44, 4, 128-129. Vergara I.M, Robaina L, Izquerdo M, De La Higuera M. (1996) Protein sparing effect of lipids in diets for fingerlings of gilthead sea bream. Fisheries Science, 62, 624-628. Yan F, Kersey J.H, Waldroup P.W. (2001) Phosphourus requirements of broiler chicks three to six weeks of age as influenced by phytase supplementalion, Poultry Sci. 80, 455-459. Researches on Protection, Propagation and Sustainable Usage of Native Bulbous Plants of Turkey Özgül Karagüzel1, İbrahim Baktır2, Deniz Hazar3, Gülden Yılmaz2 1 Western Mediterranean Research Institute, Antalya 2Akdeniz University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Horticulture, Antalya 3Akdeniz University, Kumluca Vocational School, Antalya E-mail: tezkara@yahoo.com Abstract Over 1000 flowering bulbous plants are naturally grown in Turkey. Flowering bulbs exportation has been in effect for years from Turkey. In recent years, exportation has been under strict control, it has been realized according to yearly given quota by The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestocks. Even though the present regulations and status, negligable 378 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1270 Title A name given to the resource Enzyme Supplementation to Soybean Based Diet in Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Effects on Growth Parameters and Nitrogen and Phosphorus Digestibility Author Author İbrahim , Diler Abstract A summary of the resource. The aim of the this study was to examine the effects of the diets based on Soybean Meal (40%) supplemented with exogenous enzymes on growth performance, feed utilization, apparent digestibility and reduce environment pollution waste output of nitrogen and phosphorus in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) culture. Trout groups (initial weight 87.00±1,5) method of random plots with 3 replications of 50 fish/pond with the ratio of 1050 fish in the concrete ponds. Diets consisted of 25% fish meal (FM) and 40% dehulled hexane extracted soybean meal (SBM) in control group (C0) and diet supplemented with protease enzyme (PRT; 2g/kg-1), diet supplemented with enzyme cocktail (MIX; cellulose, xylanase, endo-ß-1,3:1,4-glucanase; 2g/kg-1) and diet supplemented with pyhtase enzyme (PHY; 2g/kg-1). About of growth performance were found while condition factor (1,21-1,23) were statistically similar (p>0.05), however specific growth rate, SGR, (1,118-1,340) and feed conversion ratio, FCR, (1,26-1,30) were obtained significantly different among groups (p<0,05). PRT and PHY groups significantly improved SGR and FCR better than control group. In this study, showed the highest nitrogen apperent digestibility coefficient, ADC (85,49±1,98) in PRT group while, the poorest value obtained (72,82±0.01) C0 group respectively (p<0,05). Also the best (58.57±0.49) and lowest (42.85±1.98) ADC was obtained PHT and C0 groups for phosphorus respectively (p<0,05). Keywords: rainbow trout, enzyme, growth performance, nitrogen, phosphorus, digestibility Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/efe882f3fc7fba2eeb30756f84f93121.pdf dd8b19ee9d44647a225463096b694a16 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Estimating The Number Of Daily Patient Applications By Using Artificial Neural Networks İbrahim Güngör1, Sezgin Irmak1, Mehmet Özer Demir2 1Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business, Alanya/Antalya, Turkey 2Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Engineering, Alanya/Antalya, Turkey E-mails: igungor@akdeniz.edu.tr, sezgin@akdeniz.edu.tr, mozerdemir@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract This study is aiming at estimating the patient volumes of hospitals by using artificial neural networks. In order to train the artificial neural network models in this study, historical patient applications data from a Turkish hospital were used. All patient applications counted as daily numbers during three years and dependent variable of our study (patient_count) is derived. A different approach used in this study and instead of a single independent variable (which is time), four different time periods were used as input variables of the artificial neural network models. These input variables were day of month, day of week, month, and year. Several artificial neural network models have been generated and compared with each other by their predictive performance measures. The best predictive artificial neural network architecture has an estimation accuracy of 94.22 percent. This artificial neural network model has an input layer with four neurons, an output layer with one neuron, and only one hidden layer with nineteen neurons. The arithmetic mean of patient application in a day is 755.93 (S.d.=486.60). Mean error of the artificial neural network model is -0.047 and mean absolute error is 105.64. The linear correlation between the actual values and the predicted values of the number of patients is 0.918. Keywords: artificial neural networks, decision support systems, modeling, estimation, hospital management. 1. INTRODUCTION The study of artificial neural networks was inspired by attempts to simulate biological neural systems. Analogous to human brain structure, an artificial neural network is composed of an interconnected assembly of nodes and directed links (Tan et al., 2006). Artificial neural networks have been used in many types of applications and research studies in different areas. These areas including computer security systems, business management, decision making, finance, tourism, chemistry, transportation, medical applications and so on. Artificial neural networks can do classification, pattern recognition, optimization, estimation, and time series prediction tasks. All these tasks can be used for getting valuable information for business decision making and planning purposes. 119 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Healthcare sector is a critical service sector that is highly people oriented and very intensive. Therefore forecasting is very important to plan next month’s, next week’s, and next day’s personnel or operations. One of the top important variables to forecast is the number of patient applications to the hospitals. In this study artificial neural networks are used for estimating the number of daily patient applications to a hospital. There are three types of neural networks, which are differentiate into input variables, are examined in this study. In the first one, only time index value was used as an input variable. In the other one, day of year, day of week, month, season, and year were used as input variables. Then the results of these two networks were compared. 2. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS Artificial neural networks are one of the most accurate and widely used forecasting models (Khashei & Bijari 2010) that are used extensively to model complex relationships between input and output data sequences, and to find hidden patterns in data sets. An artificial neural network is a computational model that emulates the essential features and operations of biological neural networks (Pintér 2011). The human brain consists primarily of nerve cells called neurons, linked together with other neurons via strands of fiber called axons. Axons are used to transmit nerve impulses from one neuron to another whenever the neurons are stimulated. A neuron is connected to the axons of other neurons via dendrites, which are extensions from the cell body of the neuron. The contact point between a dendrite and an axon is called synapse. Neurologists have discovered that the human brain learns by changing the strength of the synaptic connection between neurons upon repeated stimulation by the same impulse (Tan et al. 2006). 2.1. The Structure of an Artificial Neuron Every neuron in an artificial neural network represents an autonomous computational unit and receives inputs a series of signals that dictate its activation. Following activation, every neuron produces an output signal. All the input signals reach the neuron simultaneously, so the neuron receives more than one input signal, but it produces only one output signal. Every input signal is associated with a connection weight. The weight determines the relative importance the input signal can have in producing the final impulse transmitted by the neuron. The weights are adaptive coefficients that, in analogy with the biological model, are modified in response to the various signals that travel on the network according to a suitable learning algorithm. A threshold value, called bias, is usually introduced. Bias is similar to an intercept in a regression model (Giudici 2005). The components of an artificial neural network neuron are shown in Figure 1. 120 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo bias W0 Σ : Combination function f : Activation (or transfer) function W1 Inputs W2 Σ f Output Wn Figure 1. Components of an Artificial Neuron (Irmak 2009) The combination function commonly uses the standard weighted sum which is the summation of the input attribute values multiplied by the weights that have been assigned to those attributes, to calculate a value to be passed on to the transfer function. The transfer function applies either a linear or non-linear transformation to the value passed to it by the combination function. The hidden layer then employs this transfer function in moving data to the output nodes (Kros et al. 2006). The types of activation functions have very important influences on the learning speeds, classification correct rates and non-linear mapping precisions of artificial neural networks (Daqi & Genxing 2003). 2.2. The Architecture of Artificial Neural Networks Although researchers have studied numerous different neural network architectures, the most successful applications of neural networks have been multilayer feed-forward networks. These are networks in which there is an input layer consisting of nodes that simply accept the input values, and successive layers of nodes in the next layer. The last layer is called the output layer. Layers between the input and output layers are known as hidden layers. A feedforward artificial neural network is a fully connected network with a one-way flow and no cycles (Shmueli et al. 2007). Artificial neural networks have been extensively applied in various fields of science and engineering. It is mainly because feed-forward neural networks have universal approximation capability (Wang & Xu 2010). Single hidden layer feedforward network is the most widely used model form for time series modeling and forecasting (Zhang et al. 1998). Architecture of a feed-forward artificial neural network with a single hidden layer is given in Figure 1. 121 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo x1 x2 w1, 5 w1, w1, 6 7 h5 h6 y x3 x4 w4, 5 Input layer w4, 6 w4, 7 h7 Hidden layer Output layer Figure 2. A Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (Walczak 2012) Feed-forward artificial neural networks with one hidden layer are mathematically expressed in a simplified form as where for 0 ≤ j ≤ n, bj ∈ R are the thresholds, wj ∈ Rs are the connection weights, cj ∈ R are the coefficients, ⟨aj ⟩ is the inner product of wj and , and σ is the activation function of the network. In many fundamental network models, the activation function is the sigmoidal function of logistic type (Anastassiou 2011). 3. ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF PATIENTS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS This study is aiming at estimating the patient volumes of hospitals by using artificial neural networks. In order to train the artificial neural network models in this study, historical numbers of patient data from a Turkish hospital were used. Data gathered from main database of the hospital. All patient applications during 3 years counted as daily numbers and dependent variable of our study (patient_count) is derived. This daily time series data set was used along with day, month, year, and day of week variables. In the first model, only time index value used as an input variable. The best artificial neural network architecture of this model has one neuron in the input layer, three neurons in only 122 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo one hidden layer, and one neuron in the output layer. The prediction accuracy of this network is 82.94%. The mean absolute error of this network’s predictions is 383.76 while the mean number of patient applications to the hospital is 755.93. Day of week variable was added to the second artificial neural network model in order to represent the changes in the different days of a week, especially the dramatic changes between the weekdays and the weekend. The final topology of this model has eight neurons in the input layer, three neurons in the hidden layer, and one neuron in the output layer. This model has 91.67% prediction accuracy and 139.18 mean absolute error. The error rate is considerably lower than the first model. The reason is that, this model has an ability to represent the fall in the number of patient applications in the weekends. The third model of this study has four variables that they may represent significant changes in patient numbers in a year. These variables are year, month, day, and day of week. This model has four neurons in the input layer, nineteen neurons in one hidden layer, and one neuron in the output layer. The final network of this model has the highest prediction accuracy that is 94.22 percent, and the lowest error rate. Mean absolute error of this model is 105.64 and the linear correlation between the actual values and the predicted values of the number of patients is 0.918. The third model of this study is the best predictive artificial neural network model to predict the next days’ patient application volumes to the hospital. Table 1 summarizes the results of the artificial neural network models. Table 1. The Results of Artificial Neural Network Models Model No ANN Topology Input Variables Prediction Accuracy (%) Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Linear Correlation (r) Model-1 1:3:1  Time Index 82.943 383.760 0.197 Model-2 8:3:1  Time Index  Day of Week 91.669 139.186 0.893 Model-3 4:19:1     94.223 105.643 0.918 Year Month Day of Month Day of Week A total of 1095 days’ data were used for training the neural network models. Generally time series forecasting could be made up to ten percent of the number of data points. In this study 1095 days’ data were used for predicting 120 days’ number of patient applications. Actual values of patient applications were gathered from hospital database. The actual values and the 123 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo predicted values of three artificial neural network models are given in Figure 3. As seen from the figure, the predictions of the first model represent the trend but do not reflect daily distinctions. The predictions of the third model best fit to the actual values. Figure 3. Actual Numbers of Patient Applications and the Predicted Values 4. CONCLUSION The main strength of artificial neural networks is their high predictive performance. Their structure supports capturing very complex relationships between predictors and a response (Shmueli et al. 2007). In this study time points were used as predictors to estimate patient volume of a hospital. Estimating the future volumes of patients is an important issue for decision making processes of hospital and healthcare sector managers. Three types of artificial neural network models were generated in this study. The third model which has four input neurons as day of month, day of week, month, and year, showed better predictive results. This result is strongly related to the structure of artificial neural networks. Because artificial neural networks have flexible structures that capture very complex relationships, they can show better results when detailed input information are given to the artificial neural network model. More detailed studies can be implemented to reveal sophisticated information about the predictive performances of artificial neural networks. REFERENCES Anastassiou, G. A. (2011). Multivariate Sigmoidal Neural Network Approximation. Neural Networks (24), 378-386. 124 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Daqi, G. & Genxing, Y. (2003). Influences of Variable Scales and Activation Functions on the Performances of Multilayer Feedforward Neural Networks, Pattern Recognition (36), 869-878. Giudici, P. (2005) Applied Data Mining: Statistical Methods for Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, West Sussex, England. Khashei, M. & Bijari, M. (2010). An Artificial Neural Network (p,d,q) Model for Time Series Forecasting. Expert Systems with Applications (37), 479-489. Kros, J. F., Lin, M., & Brown, M. L. (2006). Effects of the Neural Network s-Sigmoid Function on the KDD in the Presence of Imprecise Data, Computers & Operations Research (33), 3136-3149. Irmak, S. (2009). Veri Madenciliği Yöntemleri ile Sağlık Sektörü Veritabanlarında Bilgi Keşfi: Tanımlayıcı ve Kestirimci Model Uygulamaları (Knowledge Discovery in Health Sector Databases by using Data Mining Methods: Applications of Descriptive and Predictive Models), Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey. Pintér, J. D. (2012). Calibrating Artificial Neural Networks by Global Optimization. Expert Systems with Applications 39(1), 25-32. Shmueli, G, Patel, N. R., & Bruce, P. C. (2007). Data Mining for Business Intelligence: Concepts, Techniques, and Applications in Microsoft Office Excel with XLMiner, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA. Tan, P.-N., Steinbach, M., & Kumar, V. (2006). Introduction to Data Mining, Pearson, Addison-Wesley, Boston, MA, USA. Walczak, S. (2012). Methodological Triangulation using Neural Networks for Business Research, Advances in Artificial Neural Systems, 1-12. doi:10.1155/2012/517234 Wang, J. & Xu, Z. (2010). New Study on Neural Networks: The Essential Order of Approximation. Neural Networks (23), 618-624. Zhang, G., Patuwo, B. E., & Hu, M. Y. (1998). Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks: The State of the Art. International Journal of Forecasting (14), 35-62. 125 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1105 Title A name given to the resource Estimating The Number Of Daily Patient Applications By Using Artificial Neural Networks Author Author İbrahim Güngör, Güngör Abstract A summary of the resource. This study is aiming at estimating the patient volumes of hospitals by using artificial neural networks. In order to train the artificial neural network models in this study, historical patient applications data from a Turkish hospital were used. All patient applications counted as daily numbers during three years and dependent variable of our study (patient_count) is derived. A different approach used in this study and instead of a single independent variable (which is time), four different time periods were used as input variables of the artificial neural network models. These input variables were day of month, day of week, month, and year. Several artificial neural network models have been generated and compared with each other by their predictive performance measures. The best predictive artificial neural network architecture has an estimation accuracy of 94.22 percent. This artificial neural network model has an input layer with four neurons, an output layer with one neuron, and only one hidden layer with nineteen neurons. The arithmetic mean of patient application in a day is 755.93 (S.d.=486.60). Mean error of the artificial neural network model is -0.047 and mean absolute error is 105.64. The linear correlation between the actual values and the predicted values of the number of patients is 0.918. Keywords: artificial neural networks, decision support systems, modeling, estimation, hospital management. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/72cf6887fce5339a4e7a32dcfe35bd6d.pdf 9f0bd614e7ddfab9c3702297d0c508c2 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Competition Strategies In Accommodation Enterprises İlker Çarikçi,İbrahim Çetintürk Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey E-mails: ilkercarikci@sdu.edu.tr,ibrahimcetinturk@sdu.edu.tr Abstract In this research, the competition strategies applied by accommodation enterprises to provide a competitive advantage are considered in terms of Porter’s (1980) generic strategy. The current literature has been reviewed and it has been found that the studies on this issue are inadequate. Porter’s competitiveness model and competition strategies are explained in the first part of the study. In the second part, the competition strategies applied by accommodation enterprises are analyzed. Keywords: Accommodation Enterprise, Strategy, Competition Strategies. 1. INTRODUCTION The need for determining an ideal strategy for the enterprise is increasing day by day in the sectors in which the enterprises maintain their operations in 21th century global economy and competitive environment. The competition strategy in a sector that is quickly affected from the world conjuncture and that is unlimited such as tourism; is possible with the development of long term and decisive competition strategies rather than random decisions and developments (Bahar and Kozak, 2005:149,150). Factors such as the compelling competition in the accommodation sector, the changeable and inelastic structure of demand and the high level of the rate of employee assignment require the enterprises to have a competition process that can comply with the dynamic and changeable conditions continuously and rapidly. (Kaya, 2010:27). In the study made by Yamin, Gunasekara and Mavondo, the relation between the generic strategy, competition advantage and organization performance is examined (Yamin et al, 1999:161). There are three general strategy approaches that will be successful to exclude other rivals in the sector. These are overall cost leadership strategy, differentiationstrategy, focusing strategy (Porter, Translated by: Gülen Ulubilgen,2000:43,44). Figure 1: Three generalcompetition strategies 411 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo DIFFERENTIA TION Incomparability perceived by the receiver OVERALL COST FOCUSING Cost Efficient LEADERSHIP Position Only in a certain section Porter, Translated by: Gülen Ulubilgen,2000:43,44). The hotel enterprises composing the basis of tourism sector in our day define several strategies to gain competitive advantage by getting differentiated from their rivals. Accommodation enterprises can apply one or more of Porter’s Generic competition strategies to gain competitive advantage in the tourism sector. In this study, the competition strategies applied by accommodation enterprises to gain competitive advantage is evaluated in terms of Porter’s (1980) generic strategies. 2. COMPETITION STRATEGIES The word strategy was formed with the combination of “stratus” (army) and “ago” (managing, guiding) words of Ancient Greek. While some authors claim that the word is lexicalized from the Latin “stratum” word etymologically, it means road, line, and watercourse. The lexical meaning of strategy is “to provide action uniformity for a purpose, to send, to guide, to take” (Karabıyık, 2005:11,12; Kaya, 2010:28). The best strategy for a certain company is a completely unique structure that reflects its specific conditions. Beside this, we can define three general strategies consistent in it to form a position that can be defended at the most general level and long term and to exclude the rivals in a sector. Overall cost leadership, differentiation and focusing (Porter, Translated by: GülenUlubilgen,2000:43,44). The companies have started to apply different competition strategies with the increasing competition. This situation makes it hard for the companies to survive against compelling competition conditions while increasing the dynamism of the enterprise in the sector. The general strategies approach of Porter is the approach to exclude the companies in the sector (Özkan, 2007:58). Three strategies that are consistent in their selves have been determined to gain long term competitive advantage in a sector and maximum income according to Porter (Akgündüz, 2007:33). Overall cost leadership,aims to decrease the total costs to minimum and gain an advantage in comparison to the rivals by strictly controlling cost and general expenses in every stage of product, service and production of the enterprise.Differentiation, is gaining of an important competitive power by the enterprise by differentiating the product, service, price or marketing method it offers. Focusing is a strategy in which the enterprise aims to gain competitive power by focusing on a specific intermediary group, region or geographical 412 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo market rather than the whole of the international tourism market (BaharandKozak, 2005:150,151). 2.1. Overall Cost Leadership Strategy This strategy is related with the low-cost production and income over the sectoral average provided by the enterprise (ÜlgenandMirze, 2007:258). The material costs of food and beverage sales is an issue attached much importance in the hotel management sector around the world. The calculation of the cost of food and beverage sold is same in hotel management sector as in all other sectors. Accommodation enterprises can achieve cost leadership especially with a successful cost control. 2.2. Differentiation Strategy In this strategy, the enterprise achieves higher income in comparison to its rivals by offering its products and services in a different way and in higher prices than the other similar products and services (ÜlgenandMirze, 2007:258). The enterprise tries to be the only company that has exclusive features for its customers in its sector and to obtain some features that are considered important by the customers by exceeding the expectations of the customers in the differentiation strategy. Differentiation is composed of several properties distinguishing the product from the others, the flashiness, design, safety, quality and durability of the product and the additional customer services (Eren, 2000:289,290). The results of the study “The Effect of the Inner Design of Hotel Bedrooms on PerceptionBehavioral Performance of the Users by Yıldırım,Akalın and Çağatay” have clearly asserted that the differences in the inner design of two classic hotel bedrooms have an important effect on the perception-behavioral performance of the customers. According to this, it is seen that although the dimensional size of Example A (23,98 m2) is smaller than of the Example B (26,04 m2), it is perceived more positively due to its inner design characteristics( Yıldırım, AkalınandÇağatay, 2008:182). It is understood in the study that the different inner design in hotel rooms cause difference on the perception of customers. 2.3. Focusing Strategy Focusing strategies are composed of low cost and cost focus strategies performed for limited part of customers and differentiation and differentiation strategies composed of limited customer target. The most important features of the companies that implement focusing strategies are their desire to be among limited customer target (Eren, 2000:296,297). The enterprises that focus on the product and services that are oriented for the target customer group selected by the enterprises and that can meet their requirements can limit the platform on which the competition strategies are to be implemented and increase the effectiveness of their strategies (ÜlgenveMirze, 2007:267).Target market strategies (Russian market, German 413 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo market etc) can be an example of the focusing strategies implemented by the accommodation enterprises. 3.COMPETITION STRATEGIES IN ACCOMMODATION ENTERPRISES Accommodation industry is composed of accommodation, food and beverage operations (Kasavanaand Brooks, 1991:3). The needs such as accommodation, food and beverages benefited by the tourists during their journey take place among the necessities. Today accommodation enterprise management is defined as an industry that expands all over the world with its producers and customers (KandampullyandSuhartanto, 2000:346). Today, change for a hotel management is formed according the competitive environment it takes place in and the competition strategies it develops to survive in this environment. The most important features that distinguishes the tourism which is gaining importance day by day from the other sectors is that it is service-weighted and consequently the product of tourism is invisibly abstract (Coşar, 2008:47). Many hotel managers make research to determine the best strategy to increase the performance of their enterprise (Fernando et al.,2005:22). It is understood in Table 1 that generally differentiation strategy, then cost leadership and focusing strategy is emphasized in the generic competition strategy researches of Porter (1980) that take place in the literature related with accommodation enterprises (FevziandOkumuş, 2009:240). Table 1: Researches on the competition strategies of accommodation enterprises Researcher(s) Results Kim nad Oh (2004) Hotel managements should use three strategies to be successful in the competition strategies. Dube and Reneg (1999) Focusing on a strategic position in the market and differentiation strategy is recommended. Chathoth and Olsen (2005) Low cost, product ranging and focusing on the market strategies are recommended. Oral and Kurgun (1998) It is recommended that pricing without concession from quality can be used as competition strategy. Robert and Share (1996) Pricing, sales development, marketing planning and active human resources management is recommended. Hunt (1995) and Poon (1989) Beden-Fuller Differentiation strategy is recommended. Specializing and differentiating strategies are recommended. (Fevzi and Okumuş, 2009:241,242). 414 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The growing role of enterprises having activities in tourism in the economy of the country and the high profit margin provided by the tourism sector to the enterprises has caused an increase in the number of hotel managements and formation of a competitive environment. Due to these reasons, the enterprise should keep its costs minimum and adjust its prices according to the other enterprises that have activities in the same sector (DidinandKöroğlu, 2008:114). Touristic enterprises can have advantages against their rivals by decreasing their cost through management, system and technologies they will use in the product and service production (Oral andKurgun, 1998:23).Cost leadership means the superior competition by minimizing the costs in the enterprises. As increasing the profitability of the enterprises does not only mean high price policy, decreasing the costs in the enterprise is also used as the control of general expenses. UsalandKurgun (2003) define as fixed and variable costs when considering the costs in tourism enterprises. In the technical estimation method which is one of the methods used in distinguishing the costs, the hotel housekeeping chief always follows the material used in relation with it his/her part and the changes in the costs related with them. So he/she can determine the fixed costs that are not related with occupancy rate in the enterprise. Again in pricing for cost which is among the pricing methods applied in the enterprise, the sales price is composed by adding a percentage rate to the cost of the product. The highest expense item following the personnel expenses in the enterprises is the food and beverage expenses. In this framework, the regular cost control operations performed in the kitchen and service department provide allow competition in decreasing the costs of the enterprise and in better conditions. Hotels should make differentiations and make innovative income-generating implementations to have competitive advantage both among each other and against rival destinations. Recently a new product or service is composed almost every day in hotel management. Accordingly the life of the current product and services are shortened. The hotel managements should compose a unit or a department related with innovative implementations in the enterprise, ask for the opinions of its guests and employees, closely follow the innovations in the sector and always make innovations to catch these developments (DurnaandBabür, 93,94). Enterprises should compose the differences that distinguish them from their rivals. The enterprises should prefer services that are demanded by the customers and not offered by the rival enterprises when determining the product differences. For example an enterprise targeting young people can make a difference by offering “romantic vacation” Uygur, (2007) has discussed the product differentiation for enterprises as differentiating with physical features, differentiating with settlement place, differentiating with personnel, differentiating with service and differentiating with image. Differentiating with physical feature is that the enterprise has an architectural structure unique to it. Differentiation of boutique hotels from other enterprises with their architecture, design and decoration is an example for this type of differentiation. In differentiating with service, the processes composing the tourism marketing combined components are discussed. Purchasing of a unique service by the customer in the hotel can be an example. In differentiating with personnel, as tourism enterprises are labor-intensive facilities the kindness, elegancy, respectful-careful-reliable attitudes of the personnel can be considered among the factors affecting the preference of the 415 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo guests of the same enterprise again and again. Differentiating with settlement place, one of the reasons that the enterprises in Belek county of Antalya are more preferred than the enterprises in the other centers of attraction (Side, Alanya, Kaş, Kemer) is the position (being close to the airport and the centre of the city). In differentiating with image, the emotional tie between the enterprises and their customers and the position of the enterprise among the recommended enterprises can be given as example. Touristic enterprise can have competitive advantage by focusing on certain market shares rather than choosing the whole market as target. Oral andKurgun (1998) has collected the strategies for focusing on a specific market under four main titles in the study they performed:     Being the leader of the market, Maintaining the market share, Enlarging the market share, Following the market. Focusing can be used in choosing the targets which is the least defenseless or in which the rivals are the weakest (Porter, Translated by: Gülen Ulubilgen,2000:43,44). 4. RESULT The highest expense item following the personnel expenses in the enterprises is the food and beverage expenses. In this framework, the regular cost control operations performed in the kitchen and service department provide allow competition in decreasing the costs of the enterprise and in better conditions. Enterprises should compose the differences that distinguish them from their rivals. The enterprises should prefer services that are demanded by the customers and not offered by the rival enterprises when determining the product differences. Touristic enterprise can have competitive advantage by focusing on certain market shares rather than choosing the whole market as target. In case a there is an intense competition in the market of accommodation, the managers of the enterprises firstly should give more importance to composing unique product in the sector, observing labor intensely, strict cost and general expense control, dividing the target market as geographical/regional, differentiating the product and service and focusing on markets in which the rivals are in the weakest position to be the leader. REFERENCES AKGÜNDÜZ Yılmaz, (2007), Otel İşletmelerinin Uyguladıkları Rekabet Stratejileri: İstanbul’da Faaliyet Gösteren 5 Yıldızlı Otel İşletmeleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Turizm İşletmeciliği Anabilim Dalı, Çanakkale. 416 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo BAHAR, O. ve KOZAK, M., (2005), Uluslararası Turizm ve Rekabet Edebilirlik,Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık. COŞAR Yeşim, (2008), Otel İşletmelerinde Rekabet Üstünlüğünü Etkileyen Faktörler: Yöneticiler Üzerine Bir Araştırma, Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, Cilt 19, Sayı 1,. DİDİN Saliha ve Çağrı Köroğlu, (2008), Konaklama İşletmelerinin Satışlar Maliyetler Bakımından Rekabet Edebilme Durumu ve Gelecekten Beklentileri, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt 4, Sayı 7, ss. 111-120. DURNA Ufuk, Serap Babür, Otel İşletmelerinde Yenilik Uygulamaları, Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi Cilt 3 - Sayı 1, ISSN:1309-1522 EREN Erol, (2000), Stratejik Yönetim İşletme ve Politikası, Beta Basım, İstanbul. FERNANDO J. Garrigos-Simon; Daniel PalaciosMarques; YeamduanNarangajavanaCompetitiveStrategiesandPerformance in Spanish HospitalityFirms, (2005), International Journal of ContemporaryHospitality Management, ISSN 0959-6119, Cilt 17, Yayın 1, pp. 22 – 38 KANDAMPULLY JayandHsin-Hui Hu, (2007), HoteliersNeedToManageİmageToRetainLoyalCustomers, International Journal ContemporaryHospitalityManagament, Vol.19, No:6. Do of KARABIYIK Hörüşen, (2005), Rekabet Stratejileri ve Türk Bankacılık Sektörü Uygulaması, Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Anabilim Dalı Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Zonguldak. KASAVANA Michael L. ve Richard M. Brooks, (1991), Managing Front Office Operations,EducationalInstitute, Library of CongressCataloging inPublication Data, The United States of America. KAYA İsmet, (2010),Konaklama İşletmeciliğinde Stratejik Yönetim Süreci: Kavramsal Bir Yaklaşım, KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi 12 (18): 27-35, ISSN: 1309 9132 ORAL Saime ve Hülya KURGUN, (1998), “Turizm Sektöründe Rekabet Stratejileri”, Uluslararası Turizm Pazarında Rekabet Stratejisi Aracı Olarak Fiyatlama, Erciyes Üniversitesi Matbaası, Kayseri. OKUMUŞ Fevzi ve AVCI Umut (2008), Turizm İşletmelerinde Çağdaş Yönetim Teknikleri, Detay Yayıncılık, Ankara. ÖZKAN R.Bilgen, (2007), Rekabet Stratejileri Ve Örnek Bir Sektör Analizi, Marmara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Anabilim Dalı İktisat Teorisi Bilim Dalı, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, İstanbul. PORTER Michael E. Çeviren:GülenUlubilgen, (2000), Rekabet Stratejisi, Sistem Yayıncılık, İstanbul. 417 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo USAL Alparslan and Osman Avşar Kurgun, (2003), Turizm İşletmelerinde Maliyet Analizleri, Detay Yayıncılık, 2. Baskı, Ankara. UYGUR Selma Meydan, (2007), Turizm Pazarlaması, Nobel Yayın, 1.Basım, Ankara. YAMİN Shahid, FelixMavonda, Gunasekaran, (1997) A study of competitivestrategy, organisationalinnovationandorganisationalperformanceamongAustralianmanufacturingcompa nies, Int. J. ProductionEconomics" 52, 161 172 YILDIRIM Kemal, Aysu AKALIN, Kubulay ÇAĞATAY, (2008), Otel Yatak Odalarının İç Mekân Tasarımının Kullanıcıların Algı-Davranışsal Performansı Üzerine- Etkisi,Politeknik Dergisi, Cilt:11 Sayı: 2 s.175-185. The Historical Dynamics Of Modernizm: A Critical Perspective Hüsamettin İnaç1,Selami Erdoğan2 1 Political Sciences and International Relations, Dumlupinar University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Turkey 2Public Administration Department, Dumlupinar University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Turkey Abstract In recent decades, the modernism and modern socio-political analysis has been subjected to criticism in many respects. The ideas of the global, post-modern and post-industrial societies attempted to legimitize themselves over the criticism of the modern approach towards the economic, social, political and philosophical parameters of modern version. Due to the fact that the institutions, models, matrixes pertaining with the modern realm faded away one after the other, challenging and confrontation with modernizm was popularized. Nevertheless, many critical series of analysis remained as deficient, abortive and defective studies because many researchers had not adequate information and awareness about the dynamics of the modernism which was shaping the main character of modernism. Yet modernism just as the other movements of thought was directly relevant, related and bound to the time and space which produce them. In the light of this understanding, we attempted to elaborate the main historical dymanics and the socio-political ground which the modernizm had been created. We hope that this study demonstrates the intrinsic and essential trajectory which the 418 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1137 Title A name given to the resource Competition Strategies In Accommodation Enterprises Author Author İlker, Çarikçi Abstract A summary of the resource. In this research, the competition strategies applied by accommodation enterprises to provide a competitive advantage are considered in terms of Porter’s (1980) generic strategy. The current literature has been reviewed and it has been found that the studies on this issue are inadequate. Porter’s competitiveness model and competition strategies are explained in the first part of the study. In the second part, the competition strategies applied by accommodation enterprises are analyzed. Keywords: Accommodation Enterprise, Strategy, Competition Strategies. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/72b187a678978a46fdf2577f88ae4dfb.pdf 3c79ef495b284ce82926e8007ffe2316 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Effects of Basic Macroeconomic Prices on Manufacturing Industry Production in Turkey İlknur Pulak Taras, Gülçin Manzak Aydin, Demet Barlin Harmankaya E-mails: ilknur.pulak@sanayi.gov.tr, gulcin.manzak@sanayi.gov.tr demet.barlin@sanayi.gov.tr Abstract In this research; the effects of macroeconomic prices, such as interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices and wages, on Turkish manufacture industry production in the period 19922008 are investigated. The aim of the research is to bring current macroeconomic policies in Turkey up for discussion once more. In this framework, the economic policies implemented in Turkey since 1980 are elaborated in the first place in order to interpret the economic trends between the years 1992 and 2008 ideally. Then for the purpose of analyzing the mentioned relations, various econometric methods are used. First of all, ARDL Bound Test is applied to series in order to investigate the long run relationship among them. Secondly, causality relationships are questioned by using Granger Causality Test based on Hsiao Approach; and impulse-response functions and variance decomposition tables obtained from Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) are elaborated. At last, findings are evaluated within the economic framework drawn beforehand and the research is concluded by policy proposals. Accordingly, long run relationship among variables cannot be found, however at the end of causality tests all the variables except real wages are found to be “Granger cause of production”. Moreover, the impulse-response functions put forward that the production reacted negatively to real interest rate, positively to real effective exchange rate and negatively to real energy prices. The coefficient derived for real wages, on the other hand, is discovered to be insignificant. This can be explained by the export orientation policy that has targeted foreign demand instead of domestic. Above all, it should not be neglected that real wage level deserves considerable interest since it determines wealth of the majority of society. As a result of the analyses and assessments in the research, it can be concluded that these variables can and should be utilized as efficient and essential policy tools. Keywords: interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices, real wage, Turkish manufacture industry, ARDL Bound Test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model 1.INTRODUCTION The question of whether development is succeeded by the hands of state or market mechanism (state vs. market) takes a central place in development economics literature. Although the answers include theoretical and ideological aspects, historical experiences enlighten these questions. Besides the West European countries, the experiences of South Eastern countries are elaborated again and again in this context. Although both sides underlined the elements that support their arguments, there is little evidence pointing out that only the market mechanism provides sufficient instruments for development. Rather, it seems that industrialization could not be achieved without control and supervision of the state at specific time and situations. 381 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo As for the dominant paradigm, Neoclassical Economics claims that free market economy creates the best conditions for all countries and prices are directive in case of deviances from equilibrium. The equilibrium price of a commodity/factor is said to illustrate the point where the supply and demand become equal and thus demanded production also equals demanded consumption. In summary, according to the Neoclassical model, prices should be determined under free market conditions and the actors would behave rationally with respect to these prices which could not be affected by individual actors under “perfect competition”. At this point, the general price level is determined in national market, energy prices in its own market, exchange rate and interest rate in the money market and lastly wages in the labor market in real world. Beyond these assumptions of Neoclassical Economics, price is not only an endogenous value determined by the associated demand and supply but also effective on them. As Keynes pointed out after 1929 Great Depression, interest rate is, ceteris paribus, effective on investment and exchange rate, ceteris paribus, on balance of payments. As for other prices from a supply side viewpoint, energy prices contribute directly to production cost and wage level is distinctive for production level by its functions both as a cost item and as a main component of demand. In fact, this study is based on the view arguing that utilizing those prices as policy tools in controlling the related variables (investment, import, export, production) are another choice among different economic policies. Multidimensional policy choices are significant since real economic relations are much more complicated than those in free markets idealized by Neoclassical Economics. In fact in real world, all prices are intervened to be held within boundaries determined by certain macroeconomic policies. For instance the main policy in Turkey since 2001 has been to control inflation by intervening interest rate while leaving the exchange rate to fluctuation. This is a policy choice among many others. This choice depends on policy makers’ priorities determined in the framework of current targets and economic relations. In this framework, this article aims to reevaluate the macroeconomic policies implemented in Turkey. For this reason, the effects of variables like interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices and wages on manufacture production are investigated by using various econometric methods. First of all, the series are put to cointegration test in order to investigate long term relation between them. Then causal relations are analyzed by using Granger Causality Test with Hsiao Approach. At last, Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is applied to see the effects of variables on production and impulse-response functions and variance decomposition tables are examined. Meanwhile the study is limited by the years between 1992 and 2008 for which continuous time series data for all of these variables are available. Since the policies after 1980 constitute a persistent framework, the second section of this study is devoted to an overview of Turkey’s late economic history for the sake of better evaluation of economic developments in the period 1992-2008. In the third section, data set and method are explained and in the forth, findings are presented. In the fifth section, the results of the application are presented with their economic implications and the study is concluded by a general assessment. 2.Main Milestones of Turkish Economy after 1980 The similarities of macroeconomic policies implemented in developing/peripheral economies are said to be surprising. This can be explained by the close relation of these countries with developed ones, or the centre. Öniş and Şenses (2007) defined this situation with “reactive 382 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo state” concept and exemplified it for Turkey. Accordingly, even if the policy shifts are supported by domestic coalitions, the main factor behind this policy shifts has been external dynamics. In fact, like many other developing countries, policy-makers in Turkey have followed the major centers of international decision making like the World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Trade Organization (WTO) etc. In this direction, the post 1980 era can be summarized by Neoclassical dominance that promoted liberalization in all fields of the economy. More clearly, by 24th January 1980 Decisions an inward looking industrial model, import substitution was replaced by an outward looking model, export orientation. This transformation created an environment where free market strengthened its dominance and the state interventions were restricted within the economic area. This atmosphere was spreading all around the world by the decline of the Cold War conditions. Korkut Boratav (2004: 149) defined the post 1980 policies in these words: A foreign exchange policy worked in line with real devaluations; a more liberal import regime; export as a national priority supported by promotions and subsidies like expensive foreign currency49, cheap credit and tax return; abolition of price controls and subsidies on main commodities and macro policies towards the suppression of domestic demand are the key elements of 24th January Decisions. The policies implemented after 1980 including liberalization of trade and capital movements, privatization of state enterprises and pointing private sector as the locomotive of growth have been the most long-termed ones among similar policies. Meanwhile, the dependence of exports to imports influenced the external deficit in a negative way (Boratav, 2004: 161). This structural defect was tried to be fixed by continuous and high capital flows from abroad. For this aim, foreign exchange regime is liberalized in 1984 and capital movements in 1989. İnsel et al. (2004) evaluated this situation as the effort to fill the gap created by infrastructural deficiencies with liberal financial system. In a parallel way, financial liberalization had become a determinant element for the whole economy especially after 1990. For this reason, studies analyzing the mentioned period could not ignore the impact of financial sector. According to the study done by İnsel et al. (2004) the very first effects of financial liberalization in 1989 had been the increase in current account deficit and appreciation of TL. Therefore, external borrowing had increased by 223 % in the period 1989-1993. Likewise, the fact that the majority of capital flows were short termed and their outflows were not restricted or regulated paved the way for a series of financial crisis and resource transfer. As can be seen in Table 1 and 2, financial crises in 1994, 1999 and 2001 led reel growth decrease by values between 3 and 6 % according to the previous years. Table 1: Real Growth, Net Capital Flows and Unemployment Rate (1992-1998) Net Capital Flows Years Real Growth (%) (million $) 6.0 3,648 1992 1993 8.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.5 8,903 49 This situation is changed in an opposite way by the effect of capital movement liberalization in 1989. 383 8.9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1994 -5.5 -4,257 8.5 1995 7.2 4,565 7.6 1996 7.0 5,483 6.6 1997 7.5 6,969 6.8 1998 3.1 -840 6.9 Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (www.tuik.gov.tr) and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/) Date Accessed: 02.11.2009. Actually, the years after 1990 were differentiated in terms of commodity and capital flows from 1980s when some regulations somehow had been persisted (Kazgan, 1999: 175). In detail, the liberalization process controlled by the IMF and the WB at the beginning of 1980s was reinforced by new agreements signed in 1990s like General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) and Customs Union. Both agreements aimed to decrease national protection in trade and increase the capacity of world trade. However, the abolishment of protection in industrializing countries like Turkey promoted the importation50 of industrial goods instead of producing them in the country. This was supported by concessions offered by Customs Union Agreement. Accordingly, while Turkey decreased its tariffs almost to zero for the third parties, the developed countries decreased tariffs in textile, leather goods and rubber shoes, which are exported by the developing world, in small amounts such as from 15.5% to 12.1% (Kazgan, 1999: 177-178). As a result, exports as percentage of imports in Turkey decreased51 day by day besides the capital flows appreciating the domestic currency and thus imports are promoted instead of exports. Pamukçu and Yeldan (2005) emphasized two significant characteristics of the post-1990 era. Firstly, the growth after 1990 had been speculative-led, dependent on capital inflows and secondly, the growth could not create new employment, which is called jobless-growth. The reflections of the arguments can be observed in Table 1 where negative values in net capital flows represented capital outflows. It is acknowledged that in 1994 when capital outflows exceeded inflows, the growth rate had been – 5.5%. Similarly, in Table 2 it can be deducted that 2001 crisis was significant because of the big amount of net capital outflow compared to the net capital inflows or outflows in other years. Looking at these developments, it is not an exaggeration to claim that the high growth rates between 2002 and 2007 are compatible with continuous and big amounts of capital inflows. This can be deducted also from the fact that the slowdown of world capital in 2008 directly influenced the growth rate in Turkey. In other words, the contraction in 2008 created a decrease in net capital inflows which would continue in 2009 when the growth rates are negative. Table 2: Real Growth, Net Capital Flows and Unemployment Rate (1999-2008) Net Capital Flows Years Real Growth (%) (%) (million $) Unemployment Rate (%) 1999 -3.4 4,829 7.7 2000 6.8 9,584 6.5 50 As a result, nominal rate of protection decreased from 65 % in 1983 to 28.3 % in 1990 (Kazgan, 1999: 176). 51 While the value of exports as percentage of imports was 72.4 % between 1984 and 1989, this rate decreased to 55.8 % between 1993 and 1997 (Kazgan, 1999: 180). 384 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2001 -5.7 -14,557 8.4 2002 6.2 1,172 10.3 2003 5.3 7,192 10.5 2004 9.4 17,702 10.3 2005 8.4 42,660 10.3 2006 6.9 42,689 9.9 2007 4.7 48,637 10.3 2008 0.9 33,636 Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (www.tuik.gov.tr) and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/) Date Accessed: 02.11.2009. 11 Another characteristic of the capital movements in this period has been that their inflows or outflows are random and volatile, which made the Turkish economy so fragile. Legislations aiming to promote long-term capital inflows instead of short-term or to set certain rules for capital outflows are some suggestions that could decrease the fragility and increase the stability. As mentioned before, the growth in this period was unable to create employment as much as the expected. The values in the 2nd and the 4th columns of the tables put forward the relationship between growth and unemployment. In detail, even in the years 2004 and 2005 when the Turkish economy grew by 9.4% and 8.4% respectively, the unemployment rates were above the 10% level. This situation set forth that the link between growth and physical investment which constitute the base for production has been weak. On the contrary, during the crisis years when the growth rates were below zero, the expected relation worked and the unemployment rates increased. For instance, the rate of unemployment increased from 6.5% in 2000 to 8.4% in 2001 and to 10.3% in 2002. Lastly, the increase in the rate to the level of 11% in 2008 due to global recession supported the expectation that this increase would continue in 2009. As a subset of the period of focus, years between 1998 and 2008 was also special since the IMF was effective on macroeconomic policies through uninterrupted stand-by agreements during the period. In the 2006 Report prepared by Independent Social Scientists, the year of 1998 was evaluated as a cornerstone in the Turkish Economic History as well as 24th January 1980 or the year 1989 when the capital movements were liberalized. In fact, it was the first time that macro policies were tied to the persistent relation between Turkey and the IMF within this period. According to the items in the programs following each other, free movements of international and national financial capital would be allowed, no intervention would be needed in terms of over appreciated value of TL, labor markets would be more flexible, state enterprises would be privatized and the state would be restructured depending on neoliberal understanding (Independent Social Scientists, 2006). 3.Data Set and the Method The data for wage “quarterly reel wage per hour worked in manufacture industry production” and for production “quarterly industrial production” were taken from Turkish Statistical Institute. For interest rate, “ex-post real interest rate” and for exchange rate “monthly real effective exchange rate” and for energy prices “electricity, gas and water” were used from the data set of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. All the data were transformed to quarter data on the same base year 1997 and the price effect was cleared. 385 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In the first place, the graphics of the variables were analyzed and production series were adjusted seasonally. Then the situations of whether they were stationary or not were tested with ADF Test (Unit Root Test). The series including unit root were also applied structural breaks test in order to analyze their being stationary. ARDL Bound Test was used to analyze the long-term relationship. Since cointegration was not valid, the analyses were continued with lagged variables. Granger Causality Test with Hsiao Approach (1982) was used in investigating the one way causal relation of other variables toward production and the results of impulse-response functions and variance decomposition by using VAR Analysis were discussed. 4.Findings After required adjustments done mentioned above and Granger Causality Test is applied to variables, it is found that exchange rate, interest rate and energy prices Granger-cause manufacturing industry production in Turkey within the related period. As for wages, such a relation could not be identified for this term. Then application of VAR Analysis put forward the findings shown in Table 3 where “F” symbolized interest rate, “E” energy prices, “UC” wage level, “DK” exchange rate and “UR” production. Table 3: Variance Decomposition Table for D(UR) Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S.E. F 0.041386 26.12569 0.045642 21.80958 0.049081 24.66460 0.050463 27.99220 0.050863 28.85729 0.051005 29.16273 0.051039 29.22121 0.051049 29.22451 0.051051 29.22371 0.051051 29.22310 D(E) 10.43293 17.90020 17.76381 17.17754 16.90906 16.85717 16.85599 16.87086 16.87515 16.87678 D(UC) 0.303792 1.188303 1.039880 1.085908 1.069230 1.079802 1.079802 1.080577 1.080618 1.080656 D(DK) 1.880974 8.713255 9.024850 8.758086 8.706563 8.685333 8.684548 8.682052 8.681462 8.681294 D(UR) 61.25661 50.38867 47.50686 44.98626 44.45786 44.21496 44.15845 44.14200 44.13907 44.13817 As seen from Table 3, the change in production is mostly explained by itself, which was followed by interest rate (with 26.13%), energy prices (with 10.43%), exchange rate (with 1.88%) and wages (with 0.3%). It is obvious that the explanation level of wage level has been pretty low. These findings have been parallel to those of the Granger Causality. After using variance decomposition, impulse-response functions seen below have been analyzed. Accordingly, the response of production to interest rate was negative in the first period with significant coefficients. The coefficients have been insignificant in the following periods. In a similar way, production reacted negatively to energy prices in the first two periods and then the coefficients became insignificant. As for the response of production to exchange rate it seemed to be positive for the first two periods and the coefficients became again insignificant in the others. Again in line with the previous findings, the coefficients in terms of wage level have been insignificant for all periods. The Response of D(UR) to F 386 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Response of D(UR) to D(E) The Response of D(UR) to D(UC) The Response of D(UR) to D(DK) 5. Conclusion and Remarks In this study, the relationship between the movements of macroeconomic prices, which appeared to be effective on production between 1992 and 2008, and the progress of production has been researched. The macroeconomic prices undertaken at this point have been restricted with interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices and wages. The findings of the econometric analysis have been evaluated with dominant economic policies of the period, which means that the movements of the variables have been discussed in the light of enforced programs. As it has been stated in the study of İnsel and Sungur (2003) covering the years of 1989-1999, free capital movements increased volatility in real and financial indicators and brought short-term perspective on economic programs. As a result of the liberalization of capital movements, the pressures on exchange rate, interest rate and other prices have risen. Nonetheless, this tendency of short-term perspective handicapped both the formation of longterm perspective required for a stable economy and the rise of investments towards 387 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo production. The paragraph below (Doğruel and Doğruel, 2008) has been instructive in terms of stating the main features of the period. In this long period exceeding 30 years since the second half of the 1970’s, the governments have approached the real economy through the framework of export increase and financial capital inflow; the focus of the policies has been on the inflation control and resource creation for economic sustainability, in other words, on the achievement of macro stability. Turkey’s long-term growth aim has lagged behind in this environment and a long-term action plan or approach for manufacturing industry could not have been formulated although considered from time to time. In the same direction, the simultaneous planning custom of policies for industry and international trade, which characterizes the industrialization strategy of 1960s and 1970s, has been given up after 1980. Due to commitments made to European Union and World Trade Organization, Turkey’s priorities have not been attached sufficient importance in international trade policies that could be used for supporting industrial development (Türel, 2007). Likewise, according to Şenses and Taymaz (2003), in the post 1980 era, external dynamics have been very effective on the formation of basic approaches and policies regarding industry. As a matter of fact, Turkey had been missed out the potential positive effects of national and international prices on production. This negative picture of Turkish economy has revealed the importance of this study, namely, the effect of changes in macroeconomic prices on manufacturing industry production. The general situation underlined as such has shown parallelism with objective findings of the study and has required an overview of enforced macroeconomic policies. It has been seen that the empirical findings of the study have supported the opinions and observations discussed through the study. To remember, real effective exchange rate does Granger-cause manufacturing industry production. Thus, any change in this variable had been effective on the future values of manufacturing industry. In fact, this result has provided the satisfactory evidence for the suggestion of using exchange rate as an effective policy instrument. Furthermore, impulse-response functions have shown that production has given positive reaction to exchange rate in the first two periods. As a reminder, increase in the exchange rate serial used in this study has indicated the appreciation of TL. At first sight, there has been an expectation that appreciation of TL would show a negative impact on production by promoting imports rather than exports in international trade. However apparently, the structure of national production dependent on imported inputs has caused the realization of a reverse relationship between exchange rate and production different from the expected one in the economic theory. That is to say, inputs and intermediate goods imported cheaply due to appreciated domestic currency have increased production between 1992 and 2008. Although this result could seem to be favorable at first, it should not be forgotten that the crucial point has been the increase in current account deficit. To put it another way, because of the production structure that is dependent on imports, Turkey’s high growth rates have caused a widening current account deficit. This situation, which gives way to savings balance deterioration, has increased the need for capital inflow and therefore has played a role in supporting free capital movements. It is clear that this cycle has created pressure on interest and therefore it became difficult leave high interest rate policy that has secured the continuity of capital inflow. If the findings in terms of interest rate have been analyzed, it is revealed that real interest rate does Granger-cause manufacturing industry production. This result, on its own, has shown that interest rate could and should be utilized positively for promoting production increases 388 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo besides inflation targeting. In addition, variance decomposition results have shown that the most effective variable on production has been interest rate and impulse-response functions showed that the reaction of interest rate to production was in negative direction in the first period. A relationship in this direction has been in line with the expectations of economic theory. As known, an increase in interest rate would have a negative impact on production because of its deterrent effect on investments. Besides, this situation has influenced the level of employment indirectly. Indeed, employment problem has been one of the most urgent problems to be handled since the official unemployment rates have been in double digits in Turkey. Even so, interest rate has been kept high due to the current restrictions. As stated, high interest rates have caused to reach high growth rates in Turkish economy by warranting hot money flow between 2002 and 2007. Nonetheless, these high rates have both put Turkish economy on the spot in refunding internal and external liabilities and have influenced income distribution negatively because of the economic growth without creating employment. These outcomes have pointed out that the particular variable that policy makers, who wanted to be effective on production, had to take into account had been interest rate. According to another result, energy prices which are taken into notice in terms of electricity, gas and water Granger-cause manufacturing industry production. Furthermore, variance decomposition results achieved by VAR Analysis have stressed that the second most distinctive variable on production has been energy prices after interest rate. In addition, when impulse-response functions were analyzed, it has been seen that production had given a negative reaction to increases in energy prices in the first two periods as expected. At this point, it is noteworthy to assert that the price of electricity in Turkey, which is used intensively in industry, has been higher than almost all OECD countries. The price of natural gas, which is reasonable with respect to that of electricity, has been important both as a primary resource used in industry and as a resource used in electricity production. On the other hand, since the natural gas is dependent on foreign resources, it has been hard to control its supply and price. All these motives have illustrated the significance of following and controlling energy prices for policy makers willing to increase production and income. In other words, regulation of the energy prices to foster production has been crucial for Turkish industry. In this direction, it has been found worthwhile to revise the decision about privatization of energy sector as has been offered as a solution since 2001. Last result of the study is that any change in real wages does not Granger-cause manufacturing industry production. Also, when impulse-response functions and variance decomposition results were analyzed, it was seen that coefficients determining the relationship between production and wages have been insignificant and the explanation level of wages in terms of understanding production has been significantly low. On the basis of this analysis, it could be concluded that the relationship between manufacturing industry sector and domestic demand has been weak. This finding seems to be neither surprising nor unreasonable for an economy that is based on export-led growth, dependent on foreign demand rather than the domestic. Above all, the social dimension of wages has to be taken into account rather than interpreting it solely as a macroeconomic price. This has been a considerable matter due to the fact that the number of people living in poverty in Turkey is increasing day by day. As a result of this situation that has taken its root from 1980 transformation, on the one hand the participation of economy to world trade has increased significantly, the structure of exports has shown an important change towards industrial products and on the other hand, the expected increases in production, employment, private 389 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo domestic and foreign investments have not been provided and real wage developments have shown an unstable outlook. To sum up, as indicated clearly in report of TÜSİAD, the deepening tendency of integration in the world economy after 1990s has been forcing all countries to review their industrial policies. This process has carried the potential of creating a deindustrialization process for developed and developing countries (Doğruel and Doğruel, 2008). The policy making that has to be implemented against this dangerous situation is the use of national resources in a productive way and to allocate them for pre-determined targets. Acknowledging the significance of fiscal policy52, the economy should be managed by a state, responsible not only for regulation but also for direction. Such an increase in production would provide a general improvement in welfare by both preventing unproductive use of resources and by increasing employment through new investments. REFERENCES Boratav, K. (2004) Türkiye İktisat Tarihi: 1908-2002, İmge Publishing, Ankara. Doğruel, S. and Doğruel, F. (2008) “Türkiye Sanayine Sektörel Bakış” TÜSİAD Report Edition No:466, İstanbul. Hsiao, C. (1982) “Autoregressive Modeling and Causal Ordering of Economic Variables”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Vol:4, 243-259. Independent Social Scientists 2006 Report (2006), IMF Gözetiminde On Uzun Yıl, 19982008: Farklı Hükümetler Tek Siyaset, Yordam Publishing, İstanbul. İnsel A. et al. (2004) “The Direction, Timing and Causality Relationships Between the Cyclical Components of Real and Financial Variables During the Financial Liberalization Period in Turkey”, TEK Discussion Text 2004/1, http://www.tek.org.tr, Date Accessed: 10.09.2009. İnsel A. and Sungur N. (2003) “Sermaye Akımlarının Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği 1989:III-1999:IV”, TEK Discussion Text 2003/8 www.tek.org.tr, Date Accessed: 31.08.2009. Kazgan, G. (1999) Tanzimattan XXI. Yüzyıla Türkiye Ekonomisi: 1. Küreselleşmeden 2. Küreselleşmeye, Altın Kitaplar Publishing, İstanbul. OECD (2002) “Regulatory Reform in Electricity, Gas and Road Freight Transport” OECD Reviews of Regulatory Reforms: Regulatory Reform in Turkey, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/40/11/1840779.pdf, Date Accessed: 15.05.2010. Öniş, Z. and Şenses, F. (2007) "Global Dynamics, Domestic C oalitions and a Reactive State: Major Policy Shifts in Post-War Turkish Economic Development", METU Studies in Development, Vol. 34. No. 2, 251-286. 52 For policies discussed after 2008, see A. Spilimbergo, S. Symansky, O. Blanchard, C. Cottarelli (2008) “Fiscal Policy for the Crisis” IMF Research Department Position Note, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2008/spn0801.pdf, Date Accessed: 10.04.2010 390 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Pamukçu, T. and Yeldan, E. (2005) “Country Profile: Turkey, Macroeconomic Policy and Recent Economic Performance” Report prepared for Economic Research Forum, http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~yeldane/FEMISE_Macro2005.pdf. Spilimbergo, A., Symansky, S., Blanchard, O. and Cottarelli, C. (2008) “Fiscal Policy for the Crisis” IMF Research Department Position Note, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2008/spn0801.pdf, Date Accessed: 10.04.2010. Şenses, F. and Taymaz, E. (2003) “Unutulan Bir Toplumsal Amaç: Sanayileşme Ne oluyor? Ne olmalı?”, in İktisat Üzerine Yazılar II, İktisadi Kalkınma, Kriz ve İstikrar, Oktar Türel’e Armağan, (ed. A.H.Köse, F.Şenses and E. Yeldan), İletişim Publishing, İstanbul, 429-461. Türel, O. (2007) “Türkiye’de Sanayileşme ve Kalkınma Planları Dönemsel Uygulamalar” TMMOB Industry Congress, Ankara. Consequences of financial crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina Fiscal and Monetary Policy Nađa Dreca International University of Sarajevo,Faculty of Business and Administration 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mails: nadja.dreca@students.ius.edu.ba, nadja_n88@hotmail.com Abstract Aim of this paper is to analyze effects did global financial crisis have on BiH’s economy and society in general. After examination of effects, it will be researched what are the policies that government has implemented in order to decrease negative effects. Both, fiscal and monetary policies will be examined, with special emphasize will on the stand by arrangement with IMF because it was often debated whether this arrangement was good or wrong movement of the government. Moreover, this paper will provide information about have did these measures affect society and especially certain interest groups, such as demobilized military. Finally when all of these above mentioned are analyzed and discussed, conclusions about efficiency of implemented policies will be made and proposals of what could be done will be developed. Keywords: global crisis, Monetary policy, Fiscal Policy, Central Bank 1. INTRODUCTION Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina introduced some measures aimed in cutting public administration costs and urge state-owned enterprise to devise saving plans. Bosnian government encourages public spending, new capital investments, building roads, open new projects. To conclude, BiH was doing pretty well until 2008, registering decent levels of 391 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1346 Title A name given to the resource The Effects of Basic Macroeconomic Prices on Manufacturing Industry Production in Turkey Author Author İlknur, Pulak Taras Abstract A summary of the resource. In this research; the effects of macroeconomic prices, such as interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices and wages, on Turkish manufacture industry production in the period 1992- 2008 are investigated. The aim of the research is to bring current macroeconomic policies in Turkey up for discussion once more. In this framework, the economic policies implemented in Turkey since 1980 are elaborated in the first place in order to interpret the economic trends between the years 1992 and 2008 ideally. Then for the purpose of analyzing the mentioned relations, various econometric methods are used. First of all, ARDL Bound Test is applied to series in order to investigate the long run relationship among them. Secondly, causality relationships are questioned by using Granger Causality Test based on Hsiao Approach; and impulse-response functions and variance decomposition tables obtained from Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) are elaborated. At last, findings are evaluated within the economic framework drawn beforehand and the research is concluded by policy proposals. Accordingly, long run relationship among variables cannot be found, however at the end of causality tests all the variables except real wages are found to be “Granger cause of production”. Moreover, the impulse-response functions put forward that the production reacted negatively to real interest rate, positively to real effective exchange rate and negatively to real energy prices. The coefficient derived for real wages, on the other hand, is discovered to be insignificant. This can be explained by the export orientation policy that has targeted foreign demand instead of domestic. Above all, it should not be neglected that real wage level deserves considerable interest since it determines wealth of the majority of society. As a result of the analyses and assessments in the research, it can be concluded that these variables can and should be utilized as efficient and essential policy tools. Keywords: interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices, real wage, Turkish manufacture industry, ARDL Bound Test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8ccb9313aa8bda592b6552e48771fac9.pdf b030f2276b519754e3ffe705d68de7e9 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Budget Deficits Sustainability Of Selected Eu Countries And Turkey: Panel Cointegration Analysis İsmet Göçer1,Mehmet Mercan2, M. Metin Dam1 1 Adnan Menderes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Aydin/Turkey 2Hakkari University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Hakkari/Turkey E-mails: igocer@adu.edu.tr, mercan48@gmail.com, metindam@adu.edu.tr Abstract Sustainability of budget deficits is one of the most important macroeconomic problems in most countries. High public spending and insufficiency of public revenue are main reasons collapsing of Greek, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland economies. For this reason, the conservation of budget balance and sustainability of budget deficits have a great importance. In this study; in selected 20 European Union countries and Turkey, the sustainability of budget deficit was analyzed with via under cross-section dependence panel co-integration analysis. At the end of the analysis; cross-section dependence was determined in these countries. Therefore, an economic shock which will come to one of these countries, affects the others, too. For this reason, the shocks that have been come to series don’t eliminate in the long term Co-integration relationship couldn't found between these series. Consequently, it has been seen budget deficits of these countries were unsustainable in the long term. Keywords: Budget Deficits, Sustainability, Cross-Section Dependence, Panel Co-integration Analysis. Jel Codes: C23, G18, H61, H62. 1. INTRODUCTION A system that is economically sustainability keeps internal and external debt to in the manageable levels and ensures continuous production of goods and services. (Haris, 2000: 5). The concept of sustainability in terms of budget, governments can fulfill their obligations to current and future spending is the ability to manage financial resources. For that reason, the sustainable budget system ensures allocation to public resources fairly intergenerational, keeps the interest rates at a level to encourage investments, eliminates of uncertainty and thus makes the economy more durable to unexpected shocks (Intergenerational Report, 2002: 313). The idea that is governments should intervene in the economy at the expense of the state budget deficit began with Keynes. Thus budget deficits have become a growing and permanent problem for countries. Many countries are attempting to pay the debts of the day, by means of the new debts. This situation is making much harder of financing and sustainability of the budget deficit. This situation is dragging countries in a vicious cycle of debt and can cause to economic crises. 238 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In order to decrease the level of indebtedness of countries, some arrangements have been accepted with Maastricht Criteria in 1993. According to these arrangements, so as to participate into the economic and monetary union of European Union (EU) member states, the ratio of the annual government deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) must not exceed 3% at the end of the preceding fiscal year and the ratio of gross government debt to GDP must not exceed 60% at the end of the preceding fiscal year, too. In this study, sustainability of budget deficit has been examined for 20 EU countries which their budget deficit exceed %3 of GDP in year 2011 and Turkey by means of under crosssection dependence panel unit root and panel co-integration tests for period of 2000-2011. After this point in the second section, theatrical background of sustainability of budget deficit will get involved. This section will be followed by the third section which includes the information about budget deficit of countries. This section will be followed by the fourth section which includes the literature summary and fifth section that involves the empirical analysis. The study will be completed with the conclusion and evaluation sections. 2. THEORETİCAL BACKGROUND The sustainability of the budget deficit is discussed with accounting approach and intertemporal budget constraint approach (Sriwardana, 1998). At the first approach, the sustainability of the budget deficit takes place if present discounted value of future primary surplus is greater or equal to current public debt stock. (Trehan and Walsh, 1988; Hakkio and Rush, 1991; Haug, 1991; Quintos, 1995). At the second approach he sustainability of budget deficits depends on the total values of assets and liabilities of state is equal each other or more assets than liabilities in present and future. (Buiter, 1985; Anand and Van Wijnbergen, 1989; Blejer and Cheasty, 1991). Hakkio and Rush (1991), for the U.S economy, relationship between government expenditures and government revenues examined via intertemporal budget constraint approach by using period of 1950:Q21988:Q4 data. Budget revenue and expenditure to GDP ratio study is used, provided that the co-integration relationship between the series, tested whether the coefficient equal to one. If the parameter is equal to one, the budget deficits are sustainable, while smaller than one is considered to be unsustainable in the long term budget deficits. Later Quintos (1995) has expanded these conditions. If the coefficient of the budget expenses equal to 1, the budget deficits sustainability is considered strong. If it is among between zero and one, sustainability is in a weak form. Adapted form is Hakkio and Rushs’ sustainability of budget deficits equations’ as follows: REVt  0  1EXPt  ut (1) Here, REV represents to general government revenue percent of GDP (including interest incomes) and EXP represents to General government total expenditure percent of GDP (including interest payments). 3. BUDGET DEFICIT IN COUNTRIES Lately, for the economic crises is lived in different countries, can said that uncontrolled budget deficits has got a significant share. There are budget deficits on the basis of the 239 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo economic problems ın Ireland, Greece and Spain. The ratio budget deficits to GDP of the countries are shown at the Table 1. Table 1: General Government Net Lending (Percent of GDP) 2011 Ranking -3.4 -3.6 -2.1 -4.1 -10.3 -9.3 -10.1 5. 1.6 2.8 0.1 -7.3 -14.1 -31.3 -9.8 7. -3.1 -2.1 -2.7 -6.6 -13.1 -10.4 -9.5 8. -5.5 -5.9 -6.6 -9.7 -15.5 -10.6 -9.1 9. -3.3 -2.6 -2.6 -4.9 -10.3 -9.8 -8.6 11. 0.9 2.1 1.9 -4.1 -11.1 -9.3 -8.4 13. -2.9 -2.3 -2.7 -3.3 -7.5 -7.1 -5.3 37. 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.1 -4.8 -5.5 -4.5 50. -2.8 0.1 -0.3 -1.2 -5.8 -4.1 -4.1 59. -5.8 -4.1 -3.2 -3.7 -10.1 -9.7 -4.1 66. -4.3 -3.3 -1.4 -2.6 -5.3 -4.4 -3.9 69. -0.2 0.1 -1.6 -2.3 -5.6 -2.7 -0.2 138. Source: IMF-World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012 2005 Japan Ireland US Greece UK Spain France Canada Belgium Portugal Italy Turkey 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 According to Table 1, the ratio of the annual budget deficit to GDP in 2011 is very high in the Japan, Ireland, USA, Greece and the United Kingdom. Turkey 138th among 184 countries. Especially the United States and other major economies, appear to be higher than the 3% level of the Maastricht criteria. The sustainability of budget deficits in these countries is at risk. Interested countries and international organizations must take action against to that situation. Ratio of the general government gross debt to GDP in countries, are shown in Table 2. Table 2: General Government Gross Debt (Percent of GDP) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Japan 186.4 185.9 183.1 191.8 210.2 215.2 229.7 Greece 100.2 106.1 105.4 110.7 127.1 142.7 160.8 Italy 105.4 106.1 103.1 105.8 116.1 118.6 120.1 Portugal 62.5 63.6 68.2 71.5 83.1 93.4 106.7 Ireland 27.1 24.7 24.8 44.2 65.1 92.4 104.9 US 67.8 66.6 67.1 76.1 89.8 98.5 102.9 France 66.7 63.9 64.1 68.2 78.9 82.3 86.2 Canada 71.6 70.2 66.5 71.1 83.5 85.1 84.9 UK 42.1 43.1 43.9 52.4 68.3 75.1 82.4 Germany 68.5 67.9 65.2 66.6 74.4 83.2 81.5 Turkey 52.7 46.5 39.9 40.1 46.1 42.2 39.4 Source: IMF-World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012 2011 Ranking 1. 2. 7. 9. 10. 11. 19. 20. 22. 24. 93. According to Table 2, the country which has the highest total public debt stock to GDP ratio is Japan. It is followed by Greece. In the Maastricht Criteria, when the ratio of total public debt to GDP passed the critical value 60%, it was considered to be risky in terms of countries. In this case, the debt stocks of major countries, has reached the values at risk. Turkey is far below the critical value and has got a better ratio. 4. LITERATURE Since increasing the importance of sustainability of budget deficit in recently in the international scale, the numbers of empirical studies on this subject have increased. In 240 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo particular the enormous budget deficits of the United States, directed to this issue the attention of researchers. For USA economy Kremers (1989), Wilcox (1989), Roberds (1991) and Hakkio and Rush (1991), Mankiw (2010); for Greece economy Fountas and Wu (1996), Makrydakis et al.(1999); for India Fountas and Wu (1996), Makrydakis et al. (1999); for Spain Rubio et al. (2006) have found that the budget deficits are not sustainable. Vice versa for USA economy Hamilton and Flavin (1986), Trehan and Walsh (1988), Trehan and Walsh (1991), Quintos (1995), Arestis et al. (2004); for Korea Koo (2002); for Greece, Ireland, Italy and Netherlands Arghyrou and Luintel (2003); for Turkey Payne (2008) has found the budget deficits would be sustainable. In addition, Payne (1996), has found budget deficits are unsustainable in France and Italy, but low level sustainable in Canada and United Kingdom. Panagiotis et al. (2009), tested theory of the twin deficits for Greece's economy and found that both deficits are sustainable in weak form. About the sustainability of budget deficits in Turkey; Ozmen and Kogar (1998), Azgun and Tasdemir (2006), have reached the conclusion of budget deficit is sustainable in Turkey. Akcay et al. (2001), Ozdemir (2004) and Sen et al. (2010) have obtained the result of the budget deficit unsustainable. Gocer and Peker (2011), have determined that the budget deficit is sustainable in weak form. 5. ANALYSIS 5.1.Data Set In this study, 20 European Union member countries, which their ratio of budget deficit to GDP has been bigger than 3% since 2011, and Turkeys' REV (General government revenue Percent of GDP) and EXP (General government total expenditure Percent of GDP) data of the 2000-2011 period has been used.. Data was taken from the IMF World Economic Outlook Database April 2012. 5.2. Method In this study; cross-sectional dependence among countries that make up panel was analyzed via Pesaran (2004) CDLM test. Cross-section dependence for variables was tested with Gauss codes; cross-sectional dependence for equation was tested using Eviews codes14. The stationary of the series were tested with Pesaran (2006) CADF and CIPS second generation unit root tests and Gauss codes. The presence of co-integration relationship between REV and EXP series was analyzed with Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method and using Gauss codes. Long term co-integration coefficients were estimated with Pesaran (2006) CCE and CCMGE methods and using Gauss codes. 5.3. Testing of Cross Section Dependence Whether consideration or not cross-sectional dependence between series, affects the whole outcome significantly (Breusch and Pagan, 1980; Pesaran, 2004). For this reason, before 14 We grateful for these codes and their helps to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bülent GÜLOĞLU and Asst. Prof. Dr. Şaban NAZLIOĞLU. 241 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo starting the analysis, the cross-section dependency must be tested. Because while selecting unit root and co-integration test methods, this situation must be considered. Otherwise the analysis that is done may cause wrong conclusions. The presence of a cross-sectional dependence: when dimension of time is larger than the dimension of cross-section (T>N); using Berusch and Pagan (1980) CDLM1tests, when time dimension equals to the dimension of the cross-section (T=N); testing via Pesaran (2004) CDLM2, if time dimension is smaller than the dimension of the cross-section (T<N) test makes via Pesaran (2004) CDLM tests’. Since there are 21 countries (N = 21), and 12 years (T = 12) in this study, Pesaran (2004) CDLM test has been used. Equation of CDLM tests as follows:  N 1 N  2T CD  (2)    ˆij  N (0,1) N ( N  1)  i 1 j i 1  Test statistic which will be obtained here, show that asymptotic standard normal distribution (Pesaran, 2004). Hypotheses of test: H0: There isn’t cross-section dependency. H1: There is cross-section dependency When test results obtained probability value less than 0.05, the H0 hypothesis is rejected at a significance level of 5% and be decided that there is cross-section dependency among these countries (Pesaran, 2004). In this study, presence of cross-section dependence on the variables was tested by using gauss codes. The presence of cross-section dependence on the co-integration equation was controlled by using Eviews codes. The results are displayed in the Table 3. Table 3: Results of CDLM Test REV EXP Co-integration Equation Test Statistics -1.771 0.254 10.605 Prob. 0.038 0.040 0.000 According to the results in Table 3; for the probability values are less than 0 .05, the crosssection dependence on the series and co-integration equation has been seen. In this case there is cross-section dependence among the countries which have formed the panel. A shock which has come from one of the countries, affects the others. While testing the unit root and co-integration, test methods must to be taking into account the cross-section dependence. On account of this, panel unit root test and co-integration analysis was made via methods which, which are considered the cross-sectional dependence. 5.4. Panel Unit Root Test The first problem, which encountered in the panel unit root tests, is whether or not the crosssectional units are independent each other. Panel unit root tests at this point are divided into first and second generation tests. The first generation unit root tests assumes that the units of forming panel are independent each other. First-generation unit root tests are divided into homogeneous and heterogeneous models. While Levin, Lin and Chu (2002), Breitung (2000) and Hadri (2000) take consider 242 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the homogen model; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) take consider the heterogen model. However, when a shock comes from on a unit, other units are affected by different levels is more realistic approach. To resolve this dilemma, the second generation unit root tests have been developed which considers to the cross-section dependency. Prominent second generation unit root tests are MADF (Taylor and Sarno, 1998), SURADF (Breuer, Mcknown and Wallace, 2002), CADF (Pesaran, 2006), and Bai and Ng (2004) In this study, since cross-sectional dependence among countries has been determined, stationarity of the series has been tested with Pesaran, (2006) CADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Cross-sectionally). ADF extended terms of cross-section in this test. It assumed the error term consist of two parts; a common parts and a specific parts to each series. Equation form of this expression is as follows: Yit  iYi ,t 1  uit (3) uit  i ft   it (4) In this equation, ft; unobservable represent a common element is always assumed to be stationary. Specific item in the series is εit independent and identical distributed. In this model cross-section dependence, originates from the existence of unobservable common item is assumed. The test hypotheses are as follows: H0: i  0 There is unit root. H1: i  0 There is not unit root. At first CADF statistics calculated for each country. These calculated values are compared with Pesaran (2006) table values. If calculated CADF value is smaller than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So there isn’t unit root in this country data and shocks are temporary. Later to decide whether or not unit root is existed in general of panel; by calculating arithmetic mean of CADF values of all countries, statistic of CIPS is obtained. The test hypotheses are CIPS same as CADF. Equation of CIPS is as follows: N CIPS   CADF i 1 i (5) N Calculated CIPS value is compared with Pesaran (2006) table values. If calculated CIPS value is smaller than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So there isn’t unit root in this panel data and shocks are temporary for all units. CADF and CIPS statistics calculated and results were given in Table 4. Table 4: Results of CADF and CIPS Tests Country p Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark France 4 5 4 1 1 4 EXP CADF Statistic -5.00 -3.91 -5.28 -3.08 -2.32 -3.12 243 p 1 2 1 2 3 4 REV CADF Statistic -3.69 -2.45 -4.11 -2.97 -2.29 -2.15 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Greece 1 -2.08 5 -2.47 Ireland 5 -4.79 4 -2.26 Italy 4 -4.03 5 -1.99 Latvia 5 -5.26 2 -3.93 Lithuania 1 -4.20 1 -3.37 Malta 2 -4.04 1 -3.53 Netherlands 3 -3.70 1 -3.74 Poland 3 -3.90 2 -3.54 Portugal 4 -4.81 2 -2.78 Romania 1 -4.41 1 -3.20 Slovak Republic 5 -4.36 2 -2.83 Slovenia 4 -1.81 1 -3.31 Spain 1 -3.60 2 -2.78 Turkey 4 -2.04 3 -3.23 United Kingdom 4 -3.82 1 -2.45 CIPS Statistic -3.80 -3.02 Note: Critic values get from; Pesaran (2006) pp. 46 Table 1c for 1% significance level is = - 4.96’dır. Since the computed CIPS statistics are not smaller than the table critic value, so H0 is accepted and it is concluded that panel unit root is existed in the series of panel. In this case, series are nonstationary at level15. This case is showing that the effects of shocks from the economies of the countries don’t lost immediately. For series are nonstationary, to analyze the relationship between the series of co-integration is decided. 5.5. Panel Co-integration Analysis Long-run relationship between variables, analysis via panel co-integration method is widely used in empirical analysis (Pedroni, 1999; Pedroni, 2004; Westerlund 2007; Westerlund ve Edgerton, 2007; Westerlund, 2008). At this stage of the study, firstly between series existence of co-integration was determined, after; individual and panel co-integration coefficients were estimated. 5.5.1. Testing the Existence of Co-integration Relationship At this stage of the study, the sustainability of budget deficits was analyzed by means of the co-integration between the revenue and expenditure series. Cross-section dependency was observed, co-integration of the panel presence, was tested by the Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method. The test hypotheses are as follows: H0: There is co-integration relationship. H1: There isn’t co-integration relationship. 15 It is seen EXP series of Austria, Cyprus and Latvia stationary in level value, namely I(0). In this situation looking to CIPS statistic (Pesaran, 2006). According to CIPS statistic, in the entire of panel is I(1). Addition for panel co-integration analysis applied via Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method, because this method permis so long as dependent variable I(1), independent variables can be I(1) or I(0). So the risk was eliminated. 244 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Estimated Durbin-H statistics values are compared with normal distribution table values. If estimated value is bigger than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So it is decided that the presence of the co-integration relationship between series. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method, the presence of co-integration relationship between the dimension of group and panel is separately tested. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H group co-integration test; the autoregressive parameter is allowed to differ between cross-sections. In this test, when H0 hypothesis is rejected, there is co-integration relationship for at least some sections. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H panel co-integration test; the autoregressive parameter is considered to be the same for all cross-sections. Under this assumption, when H0 hypothesis is rejected, there is co-integration relationship for all sections. (Di Iorio and Fachin, 2008; Bayar, Güloğlu and Selman, 2011). Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H-test was applied and results can be seen in Table 5. Table 5: Results of Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H Test Durbin-H Group Statistic 109.907 Durbin-H Panel Statistic 0.227 Note: Normal distribution critic values for 5% significance level is = 1.645. It was seen that estimated group statistic, larger than 1.645 critical values. In this case, H0 hypothesis was rejected for the group. It was decided to there are co-integration relationships between budget revenues and expenditures in some countries in the panel and budget deficits are sustainable in these countries. It has been seen that obtained panel statistic smaller than the critical value. So H0 hypothesis was accepted, and in this case, the panel co-integration relationship between budget revenues and expenditures are not to be existed. In conclusion, it was decided to budget deficits were unsustainable in the entire the panel. 5.5.2. Finding Coefficients of Co-integration In order to estimate the long term coefficients CCE (Common Correlated Effects) method, which is developed by Pesaran (2006) to consider the cross-sectional dependence, is used. CCE test results are shown in Table 6. Table 6: Results of CCE Test Country Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark France Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Malta Netherlands Poland Long-term Co-integration Coefficients 0.263 0.531 0.597 0.599 0.298 0.14 0.075 0.081 0.1 0.312 0.397 0.124 0.236 0.447 245 t Statistics 1.12 2.39 2.94 13.02 0.76 1.05 0.43 1.88 0.54 1.62 3.89 0.35 1.70 4.22 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Turkey United Kingdom CCMGE 0.641 0.398 0.383 0.302 0.229 0.353 0.091 0.11 4.06 3.59 8.33 5.92 1.33 20.76 1.78 1.86 In Table 6, the long-term co-integration coefficients are smaller than 1. According to Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Quintos (1995), budget deficits in these countries are unsustainable. Under the assumption that long-term co-integration parameters of countries are homogeneous, CCMGE (Common Correlated Mean Group Effects) were estimated. This method developed Pesaran (2006). CCMGE is estimated by averaging the values of the group. This estimation was made and obtained 0.11. This coefficient is smaller than 1. Therefore, in this countries budget deficits are unsustainable in the long run. 6.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION In this study, sustainability of budget deficit has been examined for 20 EU countries which their budget deficit exceed %3 of GDP in year 2011 and Turkey by means of under crosssection dependence panel unit root and panel co-integration tests for period of 2000-2011. The cross-section dependency for variables and co-integration equation were tested via Pesaran (2004) CDLM method. As a result of this analysis cross-section dependency was determined. In this case, a shock comes from one of these countries that affect the others, too. To that end, policy-determining nations, in interaction can be said that they needed to consider the developments relating to the country. For cross-sectional dependence is determined on the panel, while selecting the panel unit root and co-integration tests, this must be take into account. Therefore, taking into account the dependence of cross-sectional study, panel unit root test and co-integration analysis that takes into account the dependence of cross-sectional methods are used. Panel unit root was tested by means of Pesaran (2006) CADF and CIPS and the series were found nonstationary. This situation shows that the effects of shocks have not lost to the economies of the countries. The presence of the panel co-integration relationship is tested by Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method. When co-integration relationship determined for some countries, in the entire of panel co-integration relationship couldn’t determined. From this remark the budget deficits are unsustainable for these countries. Long-term individual co-integration coefficients have been estimated via Pesaran (2006) CCE method, panel co-integration coefficient is estimated through CCGME method. It is found that in these countries the budget deficit is unsustainable according to Rush Hakio (1991) and Quintos (1995). As the co-integration coefficient is smaller than 1. The empirical findings have shown that budget deficits are unsustainable in the long term in those countries. 246 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo REFERENCES Akçay, O. C., Alper C. E. and Özmucur S. (2001) Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence From Turkey (1970-2000), Boğaziçi University Department of Economics, WP, 12, İstanbul. Anand, R. and Wijnbergen V.S. (1989) Inflation and Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with An Application to Turkey, World Bank Economic Review, 3(1): 17-38. Arestis, P., Cipollini A. and Fattouh B. 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(1998) Sustainability of Budget Deficits in Turkey with Structural Shift, METU Studies in Development, 25(1): 107-127. Panagiotis, P., Emmanouil T., Athanasenas L. A. and Constantinos K. (2009) On the Dynamics of the Greek Twin Deficits: Empirical evidence Over the Period 1960-2007, International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 2(2): 9-32. Payne, R. (1996) Announcement Effects and Seasonality in Intra-day Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility, London School of Economics, DP, 238. Payne, J.E., Hassan M. and Cak M. (2008) Turkish Budget Deficit Sustainability and The Revenue-Expenditure Nexus, APPLIED ECONOMICS, (7): 823-830. Pesaran, M. H. (2004) General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435. Peseran, H. (2006) A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependecy, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0346. Quintos, C. E. (1995) Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13: 409–417. Roberds, W. (1991) Implications of Expected Present Value Budget Balance: Application to Postwar U.S. Data, In Rational Expectations Econometrics, Edited by Lars Hansonand Thomas Sargent. Boulder: Westview Press. Rubio, O. B., Roldán C. D. and Esteve V. (2006) Is The Budget Defict Sustainable When Fiscal Policy is Nonlinear? The Case of Spain, Journal of Macroeconomics, 28: 596–608. Sriwardana, K. M. M. (1998) An Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Sri Lanka, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Staff Studies, Volume:27-28, pp: 80-111. Şen, H. Sağbaş İ. and Keskin A. (2010) Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirliğin Analizi: 19752007, Maliye Dergisi, 158. Taylor, M. and Sarno, L. (1998) The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period, Journal of International Economics, 46: 281-312. Trehan, B. and Walsh C. E. (1988) Common Trends, the Government Budget Constraint, and Revenue Smoothing, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 425-44. Westerlund, J. (2008) Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23: 193‐233. Wilcox, D. W. (1989) The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the PresentValue Borrowing Constraint, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21: 291-306. 249 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A Comparison Of Futures Prices On Turkdex With Conventional Pricing Theory Kusakci Ali Osman, Kusakci,Sumeyye International University of Sarajevo, Ilidza, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mails: akusakci@ius.edu.ba,skusakci@ius.edu.ba Abstract Derivatives are very sophisticated financial innovations and require highly sophisticated financial markets before they are introduced successfully. The well-known arbitrage free pricing theory applied when pricing derivative securities is based on some assumptions, which may not be verified in many of the emerging markets. Therefore, the applicability of the conventional theory to the emerging markets must be studied in details. This paper questions conformity of conventional arbitrage free pricing theory for emerging markets and discusses efficiency on newly organized Turkish derivative exchange (TURKDEX). Based on the market data in Turkey a comparison will be made between daily market prices and theoretical prices of 43 futures contracts. The results show that currency futures in TURKDEX are evaluated by market players fairly but ISE-30 and ISE-100 contracts offer arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, this work shows that theory and market differences rely mainly on inexperienced market players and newly established market regulations. Conservative regulations on short-selling are another problem to be solved. Keywords: futures, TURKDEX, cost of carry, arbitrage theory, emerging markets, pricing 1.INTRODUCTION Forward and future contracts are two basic types of derivatives, where they referred in the literature as unconditional derivatives (Daniel Siegel & Diane Siegel 1990).While evaluating them, the basic pricing approach is “cost of carry” approach (CC). CC is derived from an arbitrage-free market theory, while an arbitrage-free market is characterized as follows (Rudolph & Schäfer 2010);     There is no taxes, transaction and information cost Short selling is allowed All market players have the same opportunities on the market A cash flow stream and a derivative instrument can be arbitrarily divided. However, the above mentioned assumptions are only valid for a well-developed market and can be justified only under the well-known efficient market hypothesis (EMH) according to which the current price of a stock fully reflects, at any time, available information exploited by traders. As new information becomes available, any imbalance is immediately detected and accounted for by a counteracting change in stock market price (Fama 1965). Thus, the prices follow random walk and there are no clear arbitrage opportunities on an efficient market (Malkiel 2003; Atsalakis & Valavanis 2009). This, however, requires high liquidity, sufficient depth and well informed market participants. On the other hand, emerging financial markets, like Turkish capital market, may exhibit a different profile and may suffer from low 250 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1300 Title A name given to the resource Budget Deficits Sustainability Of Selected Eu Countries And Turkey: Panel Cointegration Analysis Author Author İsmet , Göçer Abstract A summary of the resource. Sustainability of budget deficits is one of the most important macroeconomic problems in most countries. High public spending and insufficiency of public revenue are main reasons collapsing of Greek, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland economies. For this reason, the conservation of budget balance and sustainability of budget deficits have a great importance. In this study; in selected 20 European Union countries and Turkey, the sustainability of budget deficit was analyzed with via under cross-section dependence panel co-integration analysis. At the end of the analysis; cross-section dependence was determined in these countries. Therefore, an economic shock which will come to one of these countries, affects the others, too. For this reason, the shocks that have been come to series don’t eliminate in the long term Co-integration relationship couldn't found between these series. Consequently, it has been seen budget deficits of these countries were unsustainable in the long term. Keywords: Budget Deficits, Sustainability, Cross-Section Dependence, Panel Co-integration Analysis. Jel Codes: C23, G18, H61, H62. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d547be98c2f8267094e490a65d4d0e68.pdf 74e5ceae82a1d14e5fc8f69989d93889 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Effect Of Foreign Direct Investments On Domestic Investments Of Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis İsmet Göçer1, Osman Peker1, Mehmet Mercan2 1Adnan Menderes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Aydin/Turkey, 2 Research Assistant, Hakkari University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Hakkari/Turkey, E-mails: igocer@adu.edu.tr, opeker@adu.edu.tr,mercan48@gmail.com Abstract Foreign direct investments are regarded as a significant source of investment in developing countries. However, foreign direct investments may affect domestic investments in different aspects. They can enforce the domestic firms to crowd out of the sector, or crowd in them. In this study; the effects of foreign direct investments for developing countries was examined by means of panel unit root tests and dynamic panel data analysis, within using belonging 35 countries 1992-2010 period data. As an empirical results obtained from the analysis; foreign direct investments increases domestic investments and has got crowding in effects in developing countries. In these countries, $1 of foreign direct investment (FDI) causes $2.64 increasing in total investment. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Crowding in-Crowding out Effects, Developing Countries. Jel Codes: E22, F21, G11, P33. 1. INTRODUCTION FDI is an investment involving a long-term relationship that control of a resident entity in one economy is reflecting a lasting interest and in that enterprise resident in an economy other than that of the foreign direct investor (OECD, 1992). FDI refers to the net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest, 10 percent or more of voting stock, in an enterprise operating in an economy other than the investor (World Bank, 1999). These kind investments involve setting up the factory; purchase domestic firm (including privatization), joint venture with a local firm, licensing agreements and purchases of real estate. FDI have significant effects for economies. It can provide a country access to new markets, cheap production, new technology, alternative products, labor and management skills and financing (Sun, 1996; Barelli and Pain, 1997; Sun, 1998; Jayaraman, 1998; Borensztein, Gregoria and Lee, 1998 and Javorcik, 2004). FDI has come to play a major role in the internationalization of business lately. FDI reached this volume owing to liberalization policies, new economic integrations, trade acts, tariff liberalization, thanks to new information technology decline the communication and remote management costs. FDI flows have increased from $54 billion in the 1980’s to $1244 billion in 2010. FDI firms exported $6 trillion, which about thirty percent of global exports, created 94 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo added value $7 trillion and supply $33 trillion income to employee in 2010 (UNCTAD-WIR, 2011). FDI may have some different effects on host country economies. It may cause crowding out or crowding in of domestic firms from sector. Purpose of this study is to analysis this effect on developing countries economy. These effects will be analyzed via panel unit root tests and dynamic panel data analysis method using 35 developing country’s 1992-2010 period data. 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FDI can affect investments of domestic firms via its own investment activities in various ways. Some of the positive and negative effects of FDI on domestic investment are regarded. Impact of FDI on domestic investments may determine according to its complementarity and substitution features. While FDI producing substitute goods, it may crowding out especially inefficient domestic firms; on the other hand FDI will crowding in domestic investment that producing complementary goods or it will uses row material from domestic market (Buffie, 1993). If there are FDIs’ crowds out effects on the domestic investments; one unit FDI increases will lead to increase of total investment in the host country smaller than one unit. On the other hand, if FDI has got crowds in effects on the domestic investment, one unit FDI increases will lead to more than one unit increase of total investment in the host country. If the effect is neutral, a unit FDI increases causes a unit increases on total investment (Misun and Tomsik, 2002). Crowding out effects of FDI may takes place when foreign and domestic firms are in the same industry. When FDI has come to a sector which included intensive domestic activities, the firms that will compete and domestic firms cannot stand this competition, and will be crowded out of sector. If the FDI goes towards the indigenous sectors, which there is less investment in this sector, through increase the volume of trading and market in this sector, it will be crowding in the domestic firms in this sector (De Mello, 1999). 2.1. Mathematical Framework of Crowding In and Crowding Out Effects For analysis this effects of FDI may beginning with a simple equation where investment in a country is the sum of domestic investment (Id) and FDI: 13 I  I d  FDI (1) From the point of view of the recipient country, FDI can be considered to be an exogenous variable (because it depends on conditions in the world economy, Transnational Corporations (TNCs) strategies, etc.). Domestic investment is depending on the domestic revenue (GDP). The model simply maybe arranged as follows: I d    1GDP By replacing (2) in (1), a model for total investment was obtained: (2) 13 UNCTAD-WIR, (1999) has been followed here and the model has been extended by the authors. 95 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo I    1GDP  FDI (3) The model of equation (3) assumes that FDI has no macroeconomic externalities on domestic investment and that, therefore, one dollar of FDI becomes one dollar of investment. Since the purpose of the exercise is to verify whether these externalities exist and, if they do, whether they are positive of negative, a more general formulation is used: I    1GDP  2 FDI (4) An empirical finding that β2> 1 is evidence for crowding in while β2< 1 is evidence for crowding out. While investors are investing not only current year, but also look at the past years’ economic growth rate. So investments dynamic process can expand as follows: p p p j 0 j 1 j 0 I i ,t  i    j Fi ,t  j    j Ii ,t  j    j Gi ,t  j   i ,t (5) Where I = investment; F = FDI; G = growth of GDP;  is the fixed country effects and  is a serially uncorrelated random error. That long-term crowding in and crowding out will be tested with this the relevant coefficient is: p ˆ LT   j 0 j p 1  j (6) j 1 The criterion used to determine crowding in or crowding out is the value and significance of ˆLT . Wald test constraints: If ˆLT =1, means that foreign direct investment caused neither crowding in effect nor crowding out effect on domestic investment, that is neutral (N) effect. ˆ An increase of one unit FDI will make a total investment also increased one unit; If LT ＞1, means that FDI caused crowding-in effect on domestic investment, that a unit of FDI can ˆ bring more than one unit of total investment; If LT ＜1, means that foreign direct investment caused crowding-out effect on domestic investment, that a unit of increase in FDI to the total increase in investment is less than one unit of. 3. SITUATIONIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows realized to $1.24 trillion in 2010. UNCTAD estimates that global FDI will recover to its pre-crisis level in 2011, increasing to $1.4–1.6 trillion. Some of the poorest regions continued to see declines in FDI flows. Flows to Africa, least developed countries, landlocked developing countries and small island developing states all declined, as flows to South Asia. At the same time, major emerging regions, such as East and South-East Asia and Latin America experienced strong growth in FDI inflows (UNCTAD-WIR, 2011). International production is expanding, with foreign sales, employment and assets of TNCs all increasing. TNCs’ production worldwide generated value-added of approximately $16 trillion in 2010, about a quarter of global GDP. Foreign affiliates of TNCs accounted for more than 96 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 10 per cent of global GDP and one-third of world exports. Table 1 shows the distribution of FDI in the economies. Table 1: Distribution of the FDI in Economies (Billion $) World 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Share of Share of Developing Transition Developing Transition Economies Economies Economies Economies 54 207 1.403 983 1.462 1.971 1.744 1.185 1.244 7 35 258 332 429 573 658 511 574 Share of Developed Developed Economies Economies 14 0 0 17 0 0 18 7 1 34 31 3 29 55 4 29 91 5 38 121 7 43 72 6 46 68 5 Source: UNCTAD-STAD. 47 173 1.138 619 978 1.307 965 603 602 86 83 81 63 67 66 55 51 48 According to Table 1, while FDI in developing countries increasing, decreasing in developed countries. For the first time, developing and transition economies together attracted more than half of global FDI flows. Outward FDI from those economies also reached record highs, with most of their investment directed towards other countries in the South. In contrast, FDI inflows to developed countries continued to decline. The distribution of FDI among for 2010 year top 20 developing countries is shown in Table 2. Table 2: Distribution of the FDI in Top Eleven Developing Countries (Million $) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 YEAR China Brazil Singapore Saudi Arabia India Mexico Chile Indonesia Angola Malaysia Turkey 1980 57 1.910 1.236 -3.192 79 2.099 213 180 37 934 18 1990 3.487 989 5.575 312 237 2.633 661 1.092 -335 2.611 684 2000 2006 2007 2008 40.175 72.715 83.521 108.312 32.779 18.822 34.585 45.058 16.484 29.348 37.033 8.588 183 17.140 22.821 38.151 3.588 20.328 25.350 42.546 18.110 20.052 29.734 26.295 4.860 7.298 12.534 15.150 -4.495 4.914 6.928 9.318 2.174 9.064 9.796 16.581 3.788 6.060 8.595 7.172 982 20.185 22.047 19.504 Source: UNCTAD-STAD. 2009 95.000 25.949 15.279 32.100 35.649 15.334 12.874 4.877 11.672 1.430 8.411 2010 105.735 48.438 38.638 28.105 24.640 18.679 15.095 13.304 9.942 9.103 9.071 4. LITERATURE There have been many studies for of FDI effects on domestic investment in the economics literature. In these studies reached different conclusions. Summary of these studies are given in order of date of construction. Lubitz (1966), studied relating to Canada and found a big effect FDI to domestic investment that: $1 of FDI led to $3 of capital formation in host country. Similarly Van Loo, (1977), studied again on Canada with 1948-1966 periods data and found that: $1 of FDI led to $1.4 of capital formation in host. Borensztein, et al, (1998), studied of the impact of FDI on domestic investment, utilizing data on FDI flows from developed countries to 69 developing countries on a yearly basis from 1970 to 1989, has found, that FDI has stimulated domestic investments; one dollar net inflow of FDI increases total investment in the host economy between 1.5 and 2.3 times the increase in the flow of FDI. 97 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Chudnovsky, Lopez and Porta (1996), found crowding out effect in the case of Latin America, where the development of domestic subcontractors was part and parcel of the privatization agreement with foreign investors. Intel built a large microprocessor plant in Costa Rica and contributed to domestic capital formation. This investment as such didn’t displace local entrepreneurs, because they hadn’t got exist, even potentially. Intel affiliate gave rise to investments by about 40 local suppliers. But there were some complaints by local business people that Intel's investment crowds them out of the labor market by absorbing skilled programmers. Jomo (1997), studied for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which relied heavily on FDI and TNCs have invested in new industries of the economies of those countries mainly microelectronics-related toys and other consumer goods for export markets, initially many of the FDIs where with few linkages to the rest of the economy, domestic suppliers of services and inputs have emerged in time, and FDI crowding in a lot of firms in this industries. UNCTAD-WIR (1999), including an econometric study for FDIs’ effects on domestic investments. This study covers 39 developing countries’ 1970-1996 period data by means of panel data analysis. The results with respect to the effects of FDI on investment by individual countries show that neutral effects dominate while the number of crowding in and crowding out cases were equal: the former were found in 19 countries and the latter in 10 countries each. As regards regional patterns, out of the 12 Latin American countries included in the test, none was in the group with crowding-in effects and none of the 12 Asian countries was in the crowding-out group: while neutral and crowding in effects prevailed in Asia, neutral and crowding out effects prevailed in Latin America. Agosin and Mayer (2000), studied for Asia, Africa and Latin America country via panel data analysis and found that: while there were complementary relationship between investments in Asia and Africa countries, there were substitution relationship in Latin American countries. Driffield and Hughes (2003), found of FDIs complementarity and creation on the heap economy features’. According to Backer and Sleuwaegen (2003), in the context of occupational choice models, FDI declining the power of local entrepreneurs. But, FDI increases the domestic investments through networking, chain and learning effects. Agosin and Machado (2005), studied of the impact of FDI on domestic investment via econometric methods and found FDI hadn’t got a positive effect on domestic investment. Apergis, Katrakilidis and Tabakis (2006), with panel study involving 30 countries found that: FDI had got complementary relationship between domestic investment in the single-variable model, whereas, in the context ofa multivariate model was obtained from the substitutional relationship. Lin and Chuang (2007), tested this effects for Taiwan economy, found that FDI have got important effects on domestic investments. According to them, FDI crowding out to little domestic firms and crowding in the big domestic firms. Ang (2009), studied of the impact of FDI on domestic investment for Malaysia through VAR analysis using 1960-2003 periods data and found that: $1 FDI increase the domestic investments $1.25. Therefore, FDI involves crowding in effects in Malaysian economy. Gan and Gao (2010), studied of the impact of FDI on domestic investment for China via panel data analysis methods using 1992-2007 periods data and found that: $1 FDI increase the domestic investment in central region $4.08 and $5.88 in Shanxi region. So, FDI have got crowding in effects in China economy. 98 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 5. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 5.1. Data Set A balanced panel of 665 annual observations from 35 developing countries over the period 1992-2010 was used in this study. The sample of countries represents all major regions in the world as FDI attracting in 2010. It includes 11 countries from Latin America and Caribbean, 11 from Asia and the Pacific, 10 from Africa and 3 from economies in transition. Investment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are these studies’ variables. Data set was obtained from World Bank, UNCTAD and IMF. All data currency is US dollar. I = investment to GDP ratio; F = FDI to GDP ratio; G = growth of Real GDP. 5.2. Method For this study data set included in the dynamic processes, dynamic panel data analysis method was used. Dynamic panel data analysis method is taken into consideration dynamic structure between the dependent and independent variables (Baltagi, 1995). In addition to use of panel data in estimating ensures control for missing or unobserved variables and relationships allow identification of country-specific effects (Arellano-Bond, 1991; Matyas and Sevestre, 1996). The dynamic panel allows dynamic effects to be introduced into the model and allows feedback from current or past shocks (Hsiao, 1986). This approach requires that N>T (Hahn, 1997) and N and T must be very big (Hsiao, 2003: 75).Simple equation of dynamic panel data is: yit   yi ,t 1   xit  i  uit (7)  x for i=1,2,...,N; and t=1,2,...,T.  is a scalar, it is kx1, it denotes the i-th individuals effect u and it is the remainder disturbance. In this study, along dynamic panel data estimation methods the technique Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was used.GMM procedures are more efficient than other estimators Arellano and Bond (1991). The resulting GMM estimator is asymptotically efficient (Baltagi, 1995). GMM estimators use all possible lagged values of dependent and independent variables as instrumental variable (Arellano and Bond 1991). Sargan test is used to determine if instrumental variables of the GMM are suitable (Greene, 2003). The Sargan test is a test of the validity of instrumental variables. The Sargan test based on the Arellano and Bond (1991) instrument set for the first differenced equations exhibits a zero rejection frequency under both the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis (Bowsher, 2002). The Sargan test is based on the observation that the residuals should be uncorrelated with the set of exogenous variables if the instruments are truly exogenous. It is a test of the over identifying restrictions. Hypotheses are: H0: Instrumental variables are exogenous (Moment conditions are valid). H1: Instrumental variables aren’t exogenous (Moment conditions are invalid). The hypothesis tested with the Sargan-J statistic. This statistic will be asymptotically chisquared (  ) with m-k degrees of freedom. m is instrumental variables number and k is number of the parameter. If the obtained test statistic probability value greater than 0.05, null hypotheses will accepted. Therefore, instrumental variables are uncorrelated to residuals, and 2 99 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo therefore they are acceptable, instruments are healthy. If the obtained test statistic probability value smaller than 0.05, H0 will be rejected and instrumental variables are unacceptable. 5.3. Panel Unit Root Test Panel unit root testing is accepted more strong for only the time dimension of time series unit root tests. Since it covers the data of both time and cross-sectional size (Im, Pesaran and Shin, 1997; Maddala and Wu, 1999; Taylor and Sarno, 1998; Levin and Lin, 1992; Hadri, 2000; Choi, 2001; Levin, Lin and Chu, 2002; Breuer and Wallace, 2002; Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2005; Pesaran, 2006; Beyaert and Camacho, 2008). At the same time, the addition of cross-sectional size of the analysis, increased variability in the data. The first problem encountered in the panel unit root tests are whether or not independent of each cross-section. Panel unit root tests are divided into first generation and second generation tests. While Breitung (2000), Hadri (2000) and Levin, Lin and Chu (2002) based on the assumption of a homogeneous model; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) based on the assumption of a heterogeneous model. In this study; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) (IPS) test will be used since the countries aren’t homogeneous. IPS test is based on this model: pj Yit   iYi ,t 1   ij Yi ,t  j   X it   it (8) j 1  1  for i=1,2,...,N; and t=1,2,...,T. i is a error correction model. If i (or unit root test probability value<0.05) serial is trend stationary, or else it has got unit root and not stationary. Table3: IPS Unit Root Test Variable Level Value Prob Value I -6.011 0.0000 F -3.511 0.0002 G -11.396 0.0000 Note: In panel unit root tests Schwarz criterion is used and length was1 taken. According to the Table 3, all series are stationary in level values. So this means analyzes to be performed in this series is reliable. 5.4. Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Dynamic data analysis made with using model (5) via GMM and the results of obtained are presented in Table 4. Table 4: Results of Dynamic Data Analysis 100 Variables Coefficients t-Statistics I(-1) I(-2) I(-3) F F(-1) F(-2) F(-3) G G(-1) 0.97 -0.06 0.26 0.44 0.51 -1.07 0.57 0.36 -0.31 414.05 -28.68 86.35 57.62 34.14 -294.95 65.55 619.67 -234.85 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo G(-2) G(-3) R2=0.87 -0.03 -0.001 J-Statistic=26.91 -38.16 -1.21 Instrument Rank=35 White Period method was used to correct the standard errors. Sargan test was used to determine whether the instruments are suitable or not by using J-statistic and instrument rank. In this way found the p-value=0.208. This result is bigger than 0.05. Thus decided to instruments are suitable and analysis results are reliable. Long-term investment coefficient calculated using equation (6) and found it 2.64. This result shows; in developing country, $1of FDI creates $2.64 in total investments. As result of FDI increases domestic investment and it has got crowding in effect in the developing country. This is a very high degree. Countries, which wishing to increase their domestic investments, should utilize from this source. 6. CONCLUSIONS There are different opinions about the effects of FDI on domestic investment in economics literature. Some economics believe that, FDI reduces domestic investment and it has got crowding out effects. Other claim FDI increases domestic investment and it has got crowding in effects. The main purpose of this study is to analyze these effects in developing countries. For this purpose, using data from 1992-2010 for 35 developing countries a dynamic panel data analysis was performed. As an empirical results obtained from the analysis; FDI increases domestic investment and has got crowding in effects in developing countries. $1of dollar FDI leads to an increase $2.64 total investment in these countries. This value is very high; FDI for the emerging countries shows how important it is. Therefore, countries, which wishing to increase their domestic investments, absolutely should utilize from this source. As a result, if a country wants to accelerate its developing pace; it tries to attract more FDI its country. The same time governments should take necessary measures for foreign investments attributes and qualities. REFERENCES Agosin, M. R. & Mayer R. 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(2003) Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels, Journal of Econometrics, 115: 53–74. Javorcik, B. S. (2004) Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers through Backward Linkages, The American Economic Review, 94(3): 605- 627. Jayaraman, T. K. (1998) Foreign Direct Investment as An Alternative to Foreign Aid to South Pacific Island Countries, Journal of the South Pacific Society, 21(3-4): 29-44. Jomo, K. S. (1997) Southeast Asia’s Misunderstood Miracle, Colorado and Oxford: Westview, Boulder. Levin, A. & Lin C. (1992) Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties, Discussion Paper 92-23, University of California, San Diego. Levin, A., Lin C. & Chu J. (2002) Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties, Journal of Econometrics, 108: 1- 24. Lin, H.L. & Chuang W.B. (2007) FDI and Domestic Investment in Taiwan: An Endogenous Switching Model, The Developing Economies,45(4): 465–490. Lubitz, R. (1966) United States Direct Investment in Canada and Canadian Capital Formation, 1950-1962, Ph.D. Dissertation, October, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University. Maddala, G.S. & Wu S. (1999) A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61: 631-652. Matyas, L. & Sevestre P. (1996) The Econometrics of Panel Data, 2nd Edition, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Misun, J. & Tomsik V. (2002) Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd in or Crowd out Domestic Investment? Eastern European Economics, 40(2): 38–56. Driffield, N. & Hughes D. (2003) Foreign and Domestic Investment: Regional Development or Crowding out? Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, 37(3): 277-288. OECD, (1992) Detailed Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment, Second Edition, Paris. Pesaran, H. (2006) A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section 103 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dependence, Cambridge University Working Paper, 0346. Sun, H. (1996) Direct Foreign Investment and Linkage Effects: the Experience of China, Asian Economies, 25(1): 5-28. Sun, H. (1998) Macroeconomic Impact of Direct Foreign Investment in China: 1979-1996, The World Economy, 21(5): 675-694. Taylor, M. & Sarno L. (1998) The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period, Journal of International Economics, 46: 281-312. UNCTAD-WIR (1999) Indirect Impact: Does FDI “Crowd out” or “Crowd in” Domestic Investment? New York and Geneva. UNCTAD-WIR (2011) Non-Equity Modes of International Production and Development, Switzerland. Van, L. F. (1977) The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Investment in Canada, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 59: 474 481. World Bank, (1999) World Development Report, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Women’s Role In Economic Development: From Classical Approach To The Present İşler Ruhan Şentürk Canan Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey E-mails: ruhanisler@hotmail.com,canansenturk@sdu.edu.tr Abstract The aim of this study is to examine women’s role in economic development from a historical perspective. Many classical economists considered women to be irrational as economic agents. They took it for granted that women were paid less than men. Feminist economists criticise traditional-neoclassical economics claiming that conceptual basis for the mainstream economic knowledge is gender discrimination and women’s experiences are not reflected in economics. For this reason, they suggest that economic horizon be broadened by reviewing and questioning economics, including women’s perspective. Towards the end of the 1980s, the concept of human development was improved and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) started working under the name of Human Development Index (HDI) in order to measure the development levels of countries. In the same way, studies on the elimination of gender-related inequality that is one of the new dimensions of development concept were started by UNDP. In this context, Gender-Related Development Index (GDI) was developed. Furthermore, Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) has been emerged to measure the distribution and participation of women in the 104 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1316 Title A name given to the resource Effect Of Foreign Direct Investments On Domestic Investments Of Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Author Author İsmet , Göçer Abstract A summary of the resource. Foreign direct investments are regarded as a significant source of investment in developing countries. However, foreign direct investments may affect domestic investments in different aspects. They can enforce the domestic firms to crowd out of the sector, or crowd in them. In this study; the effects of foreign direct investments for developing countries was examined by means of panel unit root tests and dynamic panel data analysis, within using belonging 35 countries 1992-2010 period data. As an empirical results obtained from the analysis; foreign direct investments increases domestic investments and has got crowding in effects in developing countries. In these countries, $1 of foreign direct investment (FDI) causes $2.64 increasing in total investment. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Crowding in-Crowding out Effects, Developing Countries. Jel Codes: E22, F21, G11, P33. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/1c7a4cf680002d8d74e96587d814508c.pdf 2554506ae90ad61bb77b70778c9c8cab PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dependence, Cambridge University Working Paper, 0346. Sun, H. (1996) Direct Foreign Investment and Linkage Effects: the Experience of China, Asian Economies, 25(1): 5-28. Sun, H. (1998) Macroeconomic Impact of Direct Foreign Investment in China: 1979-1996, The World Economy, 21(5): 675-694. Taylor, M. & Sarno L. (1998) The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period, Journal of International Economics, 46: 281-312. UNCTAD-WIR (1999) Indirect Impact: Does FDI “Crowd out” or “Crowd in” Domestic Investment? New York and Geneva. UNCTAD-WIR (2011) Non-Equity Modes of International Production and Development, Switzerland. Van, L. F. (1977) The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Investment in Canada, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 59: 474 481. World Bank, (1999) World Development Report, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Women’s Role In Economic Development: From Classical Approach To The Present İşler Ruhan Şentürk Canan Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey E-mails: ruhanisler@hotmail.com,canansenturk@sdu.edu.tr Abstract The aim of this study is to examine women’s role in economic development from a historical perspective. Many classical economists considered women to be irrational as economic agents. They took it for granted that women were paid less than men. Feminist economists criticise traditional-neoclassical economics claiming that conceptual basis for the mainstream economic knowledge is gender discrimination and women’s experiences are not reflected in economics. For this reason, they suggest that economic horizon be broadened by reviewing and questioning economics, including women’s perspective. Towards the end of the 1980s, the concept of human development was improved and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) started working under the name of Human Development Index (HDI) in order to measure the development levels of countries. In the same way, studies on the elimination of gender-related inequality that is one of the new dimensions of development concept were started by UNDP. In this context, Gender-Related Development Index (GDI) was developed. Furthermore, Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) has been emerged to measure the distribution and participation of women in the 104 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo economic and political life. In recent years, The World Bank has shifted its focus from structural adjustment to poverty reduction. The growing interest to the problems of gender and women has been an important part of this process. When gender inequality is not taken into consideration, economic growth and development cannot be handled effectively, because poverty leads to gender inequality and gender inequality negatively affects economic development. Considered as a human capital, human factor is a fundamental determinant of economic development. In this context, the major target of economic development is to improve life standards and to provide equal opportunities in health, education, employment for everybody without gender discrimination. Women should be involved in the current economic development plans, programs and projects with the help of the government policy. Keywords: Gender, Feminist Economics, Economic Development, Gender İnequality, Women’s Studies. 1.INTRODUCTION The period, when the term "development" began to be widely used, is known as the period after the World War II. However, it was possible to come across some points related to the issue in the science of economics before this period. The process, which Adam Smith, with the term "natural progress of opulance" (Smith, 1776:459) and John Stuart Mill, with the term "economical progress" (Mill, 1902) have tried to define, may be basically identified with the development. The process, introduced by the concept of development, has a history spanning centuries. The Industrial Revolution and the great change brought by this revolution has the highest priority and the most important role in this historical process that may be basically identified with the capitalist development. For those nations outside the Industrial Revolution, "Westernization", "industrilization" and "modernization" have turned out to be the main objective for attaining the tangible process, gained by the Western civilization, under various names and these names have been used synonymously with the terms progress/development (Yumuş, 2011:9,10). Up until the 1970s, an increase in Real Gross National Product (GNP) and the national income per capita were the main indicators used to measure the economic development. However, with the the definition of the economic development after the economic crisis in 1970s, the criteria used in the measurement of the economic development started to be questioned. With these improvements, the development has been mostly perceived from a human perspective and the improvement of man's life standard has come into prominence (Memmedova, 2000). Although the development discipline produced its unique literature after the World War II, the role and place of the women have been neglected for a long time and they have not been given due importance in mentioned development processes. Considering that women make up the half of world's population in all periods of the history, the role of women in economic and social life should not be neglected. The fact that gender equality is both a fundamental principle of democracy and one of the requirements for sustainable development is well known. From this point of view, the role and significance of women both in social welfare policies and in development plans and policies should be questioned. 105 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In this context, firstly, the theoretical approaches on the "development and women" will be evaluated from a historical perspective, then some assesments will be made related to "the development and women in international institutions and processes". 2.Theoretical Approaches to Development and Women The role and place of women have been neglected for a long time and women have not been given due importance. The place of women in the development process was first introduced by Ester Boserup in 1970 (Palaz, 2005:316,317). This section of the study, in a historical line, analyzes" the role of women in economy" before the creation of development literature and "the role of women in development" after the creation of this literature. In this context, the Classics' view of women, Neo-classical view, Boserup's view of women in development and feminist economists' views are reviewed respectively. Most of the classical economists are skeptical about women's rational decision-making capacities. Pujol (1992) states that it could be inferred from Adam's Smith's work The Wealth of Nations (1776) that "women are relatively invisible in the The Wealth of Nations, aside from their obvious role in contributing to population growth". To Bodkin (1999:46,47), it can be understood from the same work that women have limited roles in market economy, moreover, it is their parents and relatives who decide on their education because “Smith does not trust the young women to choose their subjects of study wisely” For this reason, they are deprived of the opportunity to learn the intellectual issues as their career choices are limited. Jean Baptise Say argues that women are irrational consumers. He exemplifies this issue with women's being extravagant towards expensive jewelry (Bodkin, 1999:55). Say, in his work Olbie, states that women's natural wage is lower than that of men, because it is men who must support a family while women support only themselves (Forget, 1997:109). Pujol (1995) argues that the classical school, as well as some neo-classical successors- Jevons, Edgeworth, Marshall and Pigou- accept women as "irrational" and "unfit as economic agents". Considered to be among the neo-classical economists and the father of the welfare economy, Pigou, has argued that women are weaker and more imperfect than men and thus welfare may be maximized by keeping women's salaries lower than that of men's (Pujol,1992:151). The Neo-classical point of view suggests that the elimination of the inequality between men and women and women's full participation in the economy may only be realized with development and industrialization. It states that the main reason why women cannot equally benefit from the development and why their participation in economic and social life is not realized is the differences men and women have in human capital equipments, such as education and work experience (Palaz, 2005:317). Ester Boserup, in Woman’s Role in Economic Development (1970), emphasizes that women do not benefit from development opportunities as much as men and new technologies provided by development programs deteriorate women's status (Palaz, 2005:318). The main issue of women in development is their incorporation into the existing economic development plans, programs and projects. If women are fully integrated into development plans and projects and take active roles, they will benefit more from the opportunities of the development. In this context, as suggested by Neo-classical view, it is considered that women may equally benefit from the economic development with certain state interventions and policy practices rather than assuming that the case of women could be improved with economic development (Lansky, 2000). 106 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The feminist economics does not review and question the "woman in economy", but rather it reviews and questions the economy including women's point of view. This questioning leads to the development of new economic methods, theories and policies and thus to the expansion of the horizons of economics. This questioning is realized with the principle "different but equal" (Eroğlu and İşler, 2006:69,70). At the same time, this review will also contribute to the development of women's economic conditions. Feminist economists criticise the view based on the Cartesian philosophy according to which women perceive the model person in theories of traditional economists as man, because women occupy the subordinate position and in this context they cannot reflect their women experiences on the science of economics. Therefore, they suggest that conceptual foundations of economic knowledge are produced and reproduced on gender bias (Eroğlu and İşler, 2006:108). In this context, the feminist economists suggest that the reason behind women's subordination to men in a society and their not being fully integrated into the social and economic life is the "patriarchal-man" system. Thus, they assert that all the instutional barriers against women should be eliminated and women should be empowered and actively participate in development plans and projects. Although they accept that general economic developments and improvements have positive effects on women, they point out that these effects may be very complex and may not always improve the case of women (Forsythe et al., 2000). The goal here is to provide women with the access to necessary knowledge, skills and resources, giving them the opportunity to develop themselves and play an active role in development plans (Palaz, 2005:318,319). 3.Development and Women in International Institutions and Processes Previously, the development programs saw women as objects rather than economic actors, for this reason, they were only interested in producer roles. However, it was only when the economic value of the child was understood that the necessity for reducing the expenditures on preventive measures against pregnancy in population programs and increasing their revenues was supported (Tinker, 1997:38; Ertürk, 1996:349). In this context, The United Nations sought ways to improve women's education, feeding and status. The fact that women could not fully participate in the development was called as "waste of human resources". Women were characterized as resources and the belief that their contributions would accelerate the development process and make it more effective became dominant. Indeed, in " Strategy for The Second Development Decade", the importance of promoting women's the International Development organization in the "total development" was emphasized ( Yavuz and Serdaroğlu, 2010:54). The group of Society for International Development (SID) - Women in Development (WID) created a five-page bibliography on the subject and it was at this stage that Boserup's book was discovered (Tinker, 1997:33). The book of E. Boserup, a liberal feminist, is the first study to analyze the differing effect of sex/gender division of labor and development and modernization on "gender" on the basis of data and evidence. Boserup’s study examines the effect of the development projects on the Third World Countries' women. The writer states that most of these projects neglected women and many of these technologically sophisticated projects impeded women's economic interests and independence (Yavuz and Serdaroğlu, 2010:54-57). The First World Conference on Women was held by The UN Commission on the Status of Women in Mexico City in1975 and the decade between the years of 1975 and 1985 was declared as the "United Nations Decade for Women" by the General Assembly of the United Nations. The main theme of the "United Nations Decade for Women" was identified in the 107 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo framework of determining and reaching the goals of "Equality, Development and Peace”; improving women's status on national; regional and international levels; preventing gender/sex discrimination against women; providing the equal opportunities for women to participate in the production and benefit equally from the development opportunities. The “Action Plan", determining the measures for the improvement of women's status, was accepted in the Second World Conference on Women, held in Copenhagen, in 1980. Short after the Second World Conference on Women, Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) was accepted and opened for signature by parties to CEDAW. The Third World Conference on Women was held in Nairobi in 1985 and farreaching strategies were determined for the improvement of women's status after a general evaluation of the "United Nations Decade for Women" (Palaz, 2005:319,320). The Fourth World Conference on Women held in Beijing, in 1995, demanded the recognition of women's rights as human rights. After the First World Conference on Women, many governments set up offices to deal with women's problems. International aid agencies began to employ a large number of WID specialists in order to prove their commitment to the improvement of women's status. "WID" conceptualization was first used by Boserup, to draw the attention of American policy makers and by SID Committee of Women as part of the strategy to bring the evidence produced by others. A set of common concerns branded as "Women in Development" in a flexible way or as "WID" began to be explicitly stated by the American liberal feminists advocating the administrative and legal changes that would lead the women in development agencies to have more chances to get professional employement and provide them with the chance to be integrated into economic systems in a better way. Criticisms on the Western capitalism, modernization and based on them WID shaped the ‘Women and Development’ (WAD) apporach, whose intellectual foundations lie in Marxist Feminism and the Dependency Theory. (Yavuz and Serdaroğlu, 2010:56-65). In addition to WID and WAD, many different approaches appeared on the agenda with regard to development-women relationship:‘Development Alternatives with Women for a New Era’ (DAWN); ‘Gender and Development’ (GAD); ‘Women, Culture and Development (WCD). İn the frame of development-women relationship in 1990s, the theme of "empowerment" as well as the theme of "environment" gained popularity. In the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) meetings in 1992, DAWN, on the development and environment, pointed out its view on " taking into consideration the local experiences related to ecological problems for the sustainability of life at the level of basic needs" of poor women in the South. The local inspection of the "sustainable development" was one of its demands. DAWN suggested that they had the best information on the local environment problems, faced by the poor and women in the South, and their solutions. This was the basis for women's demands to participate in environmental decision-making and management process (Yavuz and Serdaroğlu, 2010:83,84). In 1990s, organized women groups kept the governments and other agencies under constant pressure for them to take women's concerns into consideration. Activists, feminist thinkers and academicians were warned to enforce the link between theory and practice and to revise their theories. Although some shifts were observed in rhetoric and practice, WID remained to be the dominant approach for the governments, aid and development agencies-UN agencies and NGOs- (Connelly et al., 2000:63,64). As Erturk (1996:348) has stated, the reasons underlying these developments can be expressed in three ways:the first one is the far-reaching effect of women's movements in Western 108 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo countries, the second one is the East-West polarization and the third one is the Third World radicalism and the paradigmatic change that leads to the search for egalitarian policies by questioning the current economic development models (Palaz, 2005:322). Kuiper and Barker (2006) emphasize that “the past decade has witnessed a paradigm shift at the World Bank from a focus on structural adjustment to a focus on poverty reduction. As evidenced by the Bank’s 2001 report, Engendering Development: Through Gender Equality in Rights, Resources, and Voice, an increased attention to gender issues has been an important part of this process. The premise of the report is that economic growth and development cannot be effectively addressed when gender inequality is not taken into account, because poverty increases gender inequalities and gender inequalities hinder economic development.” The writers (Barker and Kuiper, 2006:1) also point out the positive changes in its theory, policy and approaches related to the conditions of WB’s programmes and loans which are now determined in cooperation with local groups and non-governmental organizations. Previously, it was economists in Washington who were decision-makers only. After the 1990’s gender and women’ issues became one of the focuses of the Bank. 4.CONCLUSION Since the publication of Ester Boserup's 1970 book, Woman’s Role in Economic Development, this field has moved from corrective focus to a broader framework of gender differences. Development is likely to improve social indicators and minimizes the gender gap through education. In addtition to significant correlations between national income growths and reduction in child mortality, reduction in male-female education gap, increase in all education levels and in women education level, there is a close correlation between women education and political and civil liberties index as well. However, besides these positive effects, it is worth noting findings about the economic development that affects the share of both the power and income sources between sex and systematically develops men's life more than women's, leading to the enforcement of men's control over the means of production. For instance, even though the living standard of women increases, their decision-making power and status may decrease when structural, technical and institutional changes in rural economies are taken into consideration (Jacobsen, 2007:386-388). Women still suffer from inequalities. Their access to such resources as land, credit, training is limited. Despite their great contribution to different spheres of life-care-givers in the household and community sectors and workers, knowledge-providers, and entrepreneurs-, they are unable to get what they deserve (Williams, 2006:227). The human factor is the main determinant of economic development. Human capital theory emphasizes the importance of investments made in human. Therefore, providing equal opportunities in health, education and income to everyone, without discrimination between men and women, and increasing their living standards should be the main objective of development. REFERENCES Barker, D.K. and Kuiper, E. (2006) “Feminist Economics and the World Bank” in E. Kuiper and D. K. Barker (eds.) Feminist Economics And The World Bank -History, Theory and Policy, Routledge, New York. 109 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Bodkin, R.G. (1999) Women’s Agency in Classıcal Economıc Thought: Adam Smith, Harriet Taylor Mill, and J. S. Mıll, Feminist Economics, 5(1), s.45-60. Boserup, E.(1970) Woman’s Role in Economic Development, London:George Allen &Unwin. Connelly, M.P., LI, T.M., Mac Donald, M., Parpart, J. L. (2000) “Feminism and Development:Theoretical Perspectives” in J. L. Parpart, M.P. Connelly, V.E. Barriteau (eds.) Theoretical Perspectives on Gender and Development, IDRC Books, Ottawa. Eroğlu Ö.and İşler R. (2006) İktisat Düşüncesinde Farklı Bir Bakış:Feminist İktisat, Asil Yayın Dağıtım Ltd.Şti., Ankara. Ertürk, Y. (1996) Alternatif kalkınma stratejileri: Toplumsal cinsiyet, kadın ve eşitlik, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 23 (3), 341-356. Forget, E.L. (1997) The Market For Virtue: Jean- Baptiste Say On Women in The Economy and Society, Feminist Economics, 3(1), 95-111. Forsythe N., Patricio R., and Durrant V. (2000) Gender Inequalities and Economic Growth:A Longitudinal Evaluation, Economic Development and Cultural Change,48(3),573-618. Jacobsen, J.P. (2007) The Economics of Gender, Third Edition, Blackwell Publishing, USA. Kuiper, E. and Barker, D.K. (2006) Feminist Economics And The World Bank -History, Theory and Policy, Routledge, New York. Lansky, K. (2000) Gender, Women and All the Rest, International Labour Review, 139 (4), 481-505. Memmedova, M. (2000) İktisadi Kalkınmada Kadının Rolü ve Türkiye ve Azerbaycan Karşılaştırması, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Eskişehir. Mill, J.S. (1902) Principles of Political Economy: With Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy, (Vol. II.), Second Edition, London: J.Parker, W Strand. Palaz, S. (2005) “Toplumsal Cinsiyet ve Kalkınma: Kalkınmada Kadının Yeri” in M. Kar and S. Taban (eds.) İktisadi Kalkınmada Sosyal, Kültürel ve Siyasal Faktörlerin Rolü, Ekin Kitabevi, Bursa. Pujol, M.A. (1992) Feminism and Anti-feminism in Early Economic Thought, Aldershot, U.K. Elgar. Pujol, M.A. (1995) “İnto the Margin” in E. Kuiper ve J. Sap (eds.), Out of the Margin: Feminist Perspectives on Economic Theory, Routledge, New york. Smith, A. (1776) An Inquiry Into The Nature And Causes Of The Wealth Of Nations, (Vol. I.) London: W.Strahan; T. Cadell. Tinker, I. (1997) “The Making of a Field: Advocates, Practitioners and Scholars” in N. Visvanathan, L. Duggan, L. Nison’off, N. Wiegersma (eds.) The Women, Gender and Development Reader, Zed Books Ltd., London. UNDP, (1995) Human Development Report, Oxford University Press, New York. Williams, M. (2006) “Why Feminist economists should pay more attention to the coherence between the World Bank and the WTO” in E. Kuiper and D. K. Barker(eds.) Feminist Economics And The World Bank -History, Theory and Policy, Routledge, New York. 110 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Yavuz, G. and Serdaroğlu U. ( 2010) “Kalkınma ve Kadın (veya toplumsal cinsiyet) İlişkilendirilişinin Değişimindeki Kavşaklar” in U. Serdaroğlu (ed.) İktisat ve Toplumsal Cinsiyet, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara. Yumuş, A. (2011) Kalkınma Planları Çerçevesinde Toplumsal Cinsiyet Eşitliği Anlayışının Ekonomik, Toplumsal ve Siyasal Boyutları, T.C. Başbakanlık Kadının Statüsü Genel Müdürlüğü Yayınları, Ankara. Determinants Of Turkey Current Account Deficit: An Econometric Analysis M. Metin Dam, İsmet Göçer,Şahin Bulut,Mehmet Mercan Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences Department of Economy Abstract The main causes of the current account deficit in Turkey; the foreign trade deficit, the high ratio of intermediate goods imports, high oil prices and Turkey's energy import dependence, lack of domestic savings, foreign direct investment and low tourism revenues. In this study, the causes of the current account deficit and current account deficit financing structure were examined. In addition, the determinanats of Turkey current account deficit wereanalyzed via VAR methods using the data of 2002-2011 monthly current account deficit, net export, interest on external debt, transfer payments and costs of tourism. As a result of the study, According to variance discrimination results obtained from VAR model composed under this roof, current account deficit is determined by its own shocks in the short term. In addition, current account deficit prediction error variance is determined by tourism expenditures and foreign debt interest rate as well as its own variables. Current account deficit is affected by export, foreign debt interest rate, transfer payments and shock given to tourism expenditures. Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Determinants, VAR, Turkey 1.INTRODUCTION 1.1.What is current account deficit? Current account deficit is the difference between the amount of foreign currency getting in and out a country. Export and tourism make up foreign currency income and import and foreign expenditure make up foreign currency expenditure. Current account deficit is reached: the foreign currency obtained from goods export, service export like tourism(e.g the wage income of those working abroad) and manufacture factors are added and the expenditures made in the same category (import, tourism expenditures, the transfer of the profit gained by 111 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1317 Title A name given to the resource Women’s Role In Economic Development: From Classical Approach To The Present Author Author İşler , Ruhan Abstract A summary of the resource. The aim of this study is to examine women’s role in economic development from a historical perspective. Many classical economists considered women to be irrational as economic agents. They took it for granted that women were paid less than men. Feminist economists criticise traditional-neoclassical economics claiming that conceptual basis for the mainstream economic knowledge is gender discrimination and women’s experiences are not reflected in economics. For this reason, they suggest that economic horizon be broadened by reviewing and questioning economics, including women’s perspective. Towards the end of the 1980s, the concept of human development was improved and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) started working under the name of Human Development Index (HDI) in order to measure the development levels of countries. In the same way, studies on the elimination of gender-related inequality that is one of the new dimensions of development concept were started by UNDP. In this context, Gender-Related Development Index (GDI) was developed. Furthermore, Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) has been emerged to measure the distribution and participation of women in the economic and political life. In recent years, The World Bank has shifted its focus from structural adjustment to poverty reduction. The growing interest to the problems of gender and women has been an important part of this process. When gender inequality is not taken into consideration, economic growth and development cannot be handled effectively, because poverty leads to gender inequality and gender inequality negatively affects economic development. Considered as a human capital, human factor is a fundamental determinant of economic development. In this context, the major target of economic development is to improve life standards and to provide equal opportunities in health, education, employment for everybody without gender discrimination. Women should be involved in the current economic development plans, programs and projects with the help of the government policy. Keywords: Gender, Feminist Economics, Economic Development, Gender İnequality, Women’s Studies. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d009b2143442732caeaf9cbef052e632.pdf d932cb6490a78c21d8b017dc11d573b0 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A Reexamination Of Causal Nexus Between Economic Growth And Renewable Enegy Consumption For Us: Further Evidence From Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test Şenay Saraç, Ertugrul Yıldırım Bulent Ecevit University, Department of Economics, Zonguldak, Turkey. E-mails: senaysarac@hotmail.com, yildirimertugrul@hotmail.com Abstract Recent debates about renewable energy consumption manifest two main expectations. Firstly, renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and secondly, it should not cause a damage on environment. This study focuses on the first issue by applying bootstrap-corrected causality test for the US since empirical literature criticizes the TodaYamamoto test which bases on asymptotic distribution. The models consist of real GDP, employment, investment and kinds of renewable energy consumption. Only one causal relationship was found from biomass-waste-drived energy consumption to real GDP. No causal relationship was found between real GDP and all of the other renewable energy kinds – total renewable energy consumption, geothermal energy consumption, hydro-electric energy consumption, biomass energy consumption and biomass-wood-drived energy consumption. That is using of energy from waste cause not only solving the dumping problems but also it contributes to real GDP. For policy purpose, the results of this study suggest that countries should concentrate on energy producing from waste as an alternative energy resource. Keywords: Sustainable development, Economic growth, Renewable energy consumption, US. JEL: O13, Q42, O51 1. INTRODUCTION Sustainable development can be defined as: “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. Many factors can contribute to achieving sustainable development goal. One of the most important factors is the sustainable supply of energy resources (Rosen, 1996; Dincer and Rosen, 1998; Dincer, 1999). A secure supply of energy resources is a necessary condition but not sufficient requirement for sustainable development within an economic society. Furthermore, sustainable development needs a sustainable supply of energy resources and an effective and efficient utilization of energy resources. In this context, renewable energy is one of the crucial elements for sustainable development. A number of factors lead to increase attention on renewable energy sources such as the volatility of oil prices, the dependency on foreign energy sources, and the environmental consequences of carbon emissions and government policies that promote renewable energy production (Bowden and Payne, 2010; Apergis and Payne, 2010a). Recent debates about renewable energy consumption manifest two main expectations. Firstly, renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and the secondly, it should not cause a damage on environment. This study focuses on first issue. There are four hypotheses about causal nexus between economic growth and energy consumption. According to the growth hypothesis energy consumption contributes to economic growth both 9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo directly and/or indirectly by complementing to labor and capital in the production process. Validity of the growth hypothesis implies that energy conservation policies could reduce real GDP. The conservation hypothesis implies that energy conservation policies would not reduce real GDP. Achieving unidirectional Granger-causality from real GDP to energy consumption supports the conservation hypothesis. Interdependent causal nexus between energy consumption and real GDP is suggested by the feedback hypothesis. It is supported by the validity of bidirectional Granger-causality between energy consumption and real GDP. Finally, the neutrality hypothesis proposes that energy consumption serves a relatively minor role in the determination of real GDP while energy conservation policies would not reduce real GDP. The absence of Granger-causality between energy consumption and real GDP supports the neutrality hypothesis. Ozturk (2010) reviews the literature about energy consumption-economic growth nexus. Empirical evidence about causal nexus between energy consumption and real GDP are mixed. Furthermore very few studies investigate the relationship between renewable energy consumption and real GDP. Table 1 summarizes empirical literature about renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus. Table 1: Literature review: Renewable energy consumption and Economic Growth Study Sari and (2004) Methodology Soytas Period Subject Relationship Variance decomposition 1969-1999 Turkey REC increases GDP Ewing et al. (2007) Variance decomposition 2000:12005:6 US REC increases IP Sari et al. (2008) ARDL 2000:12005:6 US IP→REC Sadorsky (2009) Panel Cointegration 1994-2003 18 emerging countries GDP→REC Apergis and Payne (2010a) Panel Cointegration 1985-2005 20 OECD countries GDP↔REC Apergis and Payne (2010b) Panel Cointegration 1992–2007 13 countries Eurasia GDP↔REC Payne (2009) Toda-Yamamoto 1949-2006 US GDP≠REC Bowden and Payne (2010) Toda-Yamamoto 1949-2006 US (sectoral level) GDP↔REC within Note: Abbreviations are defined as follows: REC= renewable energy consumption, GDP=real gross domestic product, IP=industrial production. EC→GDP means that the causality runs from energy consumption to growth. GDP→EC means that the causality runs from growth to energy consumption. EC↔GDP means that bidirectional causality exists between energy consumption and growth. EC≠GDP means that no causality exists between energy consumption and growth. Only Payne (2009) and Bowden and Payne (2010) use Toda-Yamamoto causality test. But Toda-Yamamoto test which bases upon lag-augmented VAR model has assumption of the normality of the error term. Hacker and Hatemi (2006) indicate that if the error term of the model is characterized by non-normality, asymptotic distribution can be poor approximation. In this case findings of Toda-Yamamoto test are invalid. 10 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The contribution of our empirical study is threefold. First this study uses a multivariate causality test by including employment and investment variables into the model between renewable energy consumption and real GDP since the omission of relevant variables leads to econometric problems. Second, this study employs bootstrap-corrected causality technique suggested by Hacker and Hatemi (2006) to avoid unclear results due to the assumption of normality and the third one is to pick the true lag order by combining Schwarz (1978) Bayesian information criterion and the Hannan and Quinn (1979) information criterion as suggested by Hatemi (2003). The rest of the paper is organized as follows: The next section describes the data, methodology and the results from empirical analysis are presented in third section. Section four presents conclusion and policy implications of the paper. 2. Data Employment, real gross fixed capital formation and real GDP variables are taken from OECD National Accounts data that is attained from source OECD data base and time series of renewable energy consumption variables are obtained from the US Energy Information Administration as billion Btu. Tim span of the renewable energy consumption variables are as follows: 1949-2010 for total renewable energy consumption, biomass energy consumption, hydropower energy consumption and biomass-wood-drived energy consumption, 1960-2010 for geothermal energy consumption and 1970-2010 for biomass-waste-drived energy consumption. 3. Methodology and Results Toda-Yamamoto augmented VAR(p+d) model can be described in the following a compact way (Hacker and Hatemi-J, 2006): K  FZ  . (1) Where: K  ( x1 , F  (v, A1 , , Ap , , xT )(n  T ) matrix, , Ap d )(n  (1  n( p  d ))) matrix,  1   x  t    xt 1    Z t   .  ((1  n( p  d )) 1) matrix, for t=1,...,T,  .     .  x   t  p  d 1  matrix, Z  (Z0 , , ZT 1 )((1  n( p  d ))  T ) matrix,   (1 , , T )(n  T ) matrix, Toda and Yamamoto (1995) introduce the following modified Wald (MWALD) test statistic for testing the null hypothesis of non-Granger causality: 11 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo MWALD  (Y ) Y  ( Z Z ) 1  VU  Y  1 (Y ) ~  P2 . (2) Where: The MWALD test statistic is asymptotically χ2 distributed, conditional on the assumption that the error terms are normally distributed, with the number of degrees of freedom equal to the number of restrictions to be tested. According to Toda and Yamamoto (1995), their function (Eq.2) guarantees the use of asymptotical distribution theory. However, using Monte Carlo simulations Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) showed that the MWALD test statistic over rejects the null hypothesis, especially if the error term is characterized by autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and non-normality. Furthermore, Hacker and Hatemi-J urged that the asymptotic distribution can be a poor approximation, especially for the small samples that are common in empirical studies. Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) found that the bootstrapped empirical size for the modified Wald test is close to the correct size in the different cases when the extra lags are greater than or equal to the integration order of both variables, and it is generally closer to the correct size than the asymptotic distribution empirical size. To perform the bootstrap simulations, firstly regression (Eq. 1) is estimated with the null hypothesis of no Granger causality. For each bootstrap simulation it is generated the simulated data, K*. K *  FˆZ   * (3) where F̂ is the estimated value of the parameters in Eq. (1). That is. Fˆ  KZ (ZZ )1 The bootstrap residuals (Ψ*) are based on T random draws with replacement from the regression’s modified residuals, each with equal probability of 1/T. The mean of the resulting set of drawn modified residuals is subtracted from each of the modified residuals in that set. The modified residuals are the regression’s raw residuals modified to have constant variance, through the use of leverages. Eq.(4) defines the modified residual through leverage adjustment for xit.  itm  (4)  it 1  hit In order to calculate the bootstrap critical values, the bootstrap simulation is run 100,000 times and calculated the MWALD test statistic each time. In this way, it is able to produce the empirical distribution for the MWALD test statistic. The analyses consist of three stage, In the first stage, to ensure robustness for the common components of the variables, we use several unit root tests, including the augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) (ADF) test, the Phillips and Perron (1988) (PP) test, as well as the 12 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kwiatkowski et al. (1992) (KPPS) test. According to our results, not represented here, the common components of the all variables turn out to be integrated of order one, I(1). The next step is to pick optimal lag order. Two of the most successful criteria according to the simulation results presented in the literature are Schwarz (1978) Bayesian information criterion (SBC) and the Hannan and Quinn (1979) information criterion (HQC). However, the earlier studies illustrate that each of these two different criteria can perform better than the other depending on the properties of the true VAR model. Hatemi-J Criteria (HJC), displayed in Table 2, is employed to pick true lag order which is suggested by Hatemi-J (2003). Table 3: Selection of Lag Length Models Model 1:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Total REC AIC SBC 2 1 HQC 2 HJC 2 Model 2:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Biomass Total EC 2 2 2 2 -25.2568 -17.6647 -18.3052 -17.9066 Model 3:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+ Hydropower EC 2 1 2 2 -25.7735 -18.0247 -18.8220 -18.4233 Model 4:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Biomass Wooddrived EC Model 5:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Biomass Wastedrived EC Model 6:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Geothermal EC -24.2653 -16.6757 -17.3138 -16.9152 2 2 2 2 -26.1630 -18.4142 -19.2114 -18.8128 2 2 6 2 -21.4469 -14.8194 -16.5588 -15.3432 2 2 2 2 -23.0602 -15.6311 Note: Abbreviations are defined as follows: AIC=Akaike information criteria, SBC=-16.5377 Schwarz -16.0844 Bayesian information criteria, HQC=Hannan-Quinn information criteria, HJC=Hatemi-J information criteria, REC=Renewable energy consumption and EC= Energy consumption. First number is selected lag length and second one is min test stats of relevant criteria. Note: Abbreviations are defined as follows: AIC=Akaike information criteria, SBC= Schwarz Bayesian information criteria, HQC=Hannan-Quinn information criteria, HJC=Hatemi-J information criteria, REC=Renewable energy consumption and EC= Energy consumption. First number is selected lag length and second one is min test stats of relevant criteria. In the last step bootstrap-corrected causality test was applied. Table 4 illustrates the MWALD stats and critical values. Table 4: Causality Test Results H0: REC does not Granger cause GDP H0: GDP does not Granger cause REC MWALD %1 CV %5 CV %10 CV MWALD %1 CV %5 CV %10 CV Model 1 0.069 10.505 6.590 4.974 2.288 10.727 6.764 5.087 Model 2 2.226 11.078 6.833 5.162 1.602 10.847 6.764 5.108 Model 3 0.966 10.272 6.447 4.915 1.261 10.754 6.758 5.090 Model 4 1.637 10.610 6.623 4.996 1.684 10.965 6.839 5.181 Model 5 12.422* 11.681 6.969 5.160 4.482 11.872 7.003 5.186 Model 6 1.228 11.064 6.871 5.148 0.332 11.603 6.994 5.255 13 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Note: * represents rejection of null hypothesis at 1% significance level. REC=Renewable energy consumption. For definitions of the models see Table 3. According to Table 4 only one causal relationship was found from biomass-waste-drived energy consumption to real GDP. This finding supports the growth hypothesis. No causal relationship was found between all of the other renewable energy kinds and real GDP. All of the findings, except for biomass-waste-drived energy consumption, support the neutrality hypothesis. 4.CONCLUSION Recent debates about relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth manifest two main expectations. Firstly, renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and secondly, it should not cause a damage on environment. This study focuses on the first issue by applying bootstrap-corrected causality test for the US since empirical literature criticizes the Toda-Yamamoto test which bases on asymptotic distribution. According to bootstrap-corrected causality test results only one causal relationship was found from biomass-waste-drived energy consumption to real GDP. No causal relationship was found between all of the other renewable energy kinds and real GDP. These findings are interesting since biomass-waste-drived energy consumption has a low percentage (6%) of total renewable energy consumption. Many developed countries are trying to dump their garbage on the lands of lesser developed countries. However dumping garbage on other places spreads pollutions and diseases instead of solving the problem. In fact it is more dangerous to dump garbage in the less developed countries since there are neither technologies available to process it nor enough awareness. Even creating landfills wastes precious resources. Lastly our findings indicate that there is a causality from waste-drived energy to real GDP. Using of energy from waste cause not only to resolve the dumping problems but also it contributes to real GDP. The countries that are using other energy resources do not take advantage from using waste-drived energy. For policy purpose, the results of this study suggest that countries should concentrate on energy producing from waste as an alternative energy resource. REFERENCES Akaike, H. (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19 (6), 716-723. Apergis, N. and Payne J.E. (2010a) Renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries, Energy Policy, 38, 656-660. Apergis, N. and Payne J.E. (2010b) Renewable enrgy consumption and growth in Eurosia, Energy Economics, 32, 1392-1397. Bowden, N. and Payne, J.E. (2010) Sectoral Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Real Output in the US, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 5:4, 400-408. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller W.A. (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. Dincer, I. (1999) Environmental impacts of energy, Energy Policy, 27, 845-854. 14 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dincer, I. and Rosen M.A. (1998) A worldwide perspective on energy, environment and sustainable development, International Journal of Energy Research, 15, 1305-1321. Ewing, B.T., Sari, R. and Soytas U. (2007) Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States, Energy Policy, 35, 1274–1281. Hacker, R.S. and Hatemi-J A. (2006) Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application, Applied Economics, 38, 1489500. Hannan, E. J. and Quinn B.G. (1979) The determination of the order of an autoregressive, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 41, 190-195. Hatemi-J, A. (2003) A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models, Applied Economics Letters, 10, 135-137. Kwiatkowski D., Phillips P.C.B., Schmidt P. and Shin. Y. (1992) Testing for the null of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178. Ozturk, I. (2010) A literatüre survey on energy-growth nexus, Energy Policy, 38, 340-349. Payne, J.E. (2009) On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US, Applied Energy, 86, 575–577. Phillips, P.C. and Perron P. (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75, 335-346. Rosen, M.A. (1996) The role of energy efficiency in sustainable development, Technology and Society, 15(4), 21-26. Sadorsky, P. (2009) Renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies, Energy Policy, 37, 4021-4028. Sarı, R. and Soytas U. (2004) Disaggregate energy consumption, employment, and income in Turkey, Energy Economics, 26, 335–344. Sarı, R., Ewing, B.T. and Soytas, U. (2008) The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: an ARDL approach, Energy Economics, 30, 2302–2313. Schwarz, G. (1978), Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464. Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto T. (1995), Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250. An Analysis of Theories on Stock Returns Ahmet Sekreter Abstract Objective in writing this article is to provide an overview of the theories that has been developed for stock returns which is an important area of financial markets’ researches. Since the researches in this field are very active for the past quarter, it is not possible to describe all works that has been done in this area. Most important researches will be discussed without going deeper in mathematical tools and theories. 15 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1307 Title A name given to the resource A Reexamination Of Causal Nexus Between Economic Growth And Renewable Enegy Consumption For Us: Further Evidence From Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test Author Author Şenay , Saraç Abstract A summary of the resource. Recent debates about renewable energy consumption manifest two main expectations. Firstly, renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and secondly, it should not cause a damage on environment. This study focuses on the first issue by applying bootstrap-corrected causality test for the US since empirical literature criticizes the Toda- Yamamoto test which bases on asymptotic distribution. The models consist of real GDP, employment, investment and kinds of renewable energy consumption. Only one causal relationship was found from biomass-waste-drived energy consumption to real GDP. No causal relationship was found between real GDP and all of the other renewable energy kinds – total renewable energy consumption, geothermal energy consumption, hydro-electric energy consumption, biomass energy consumption and biomass-wood-drived energy consumption. That is using of energy from waste cause not only solving the dumping problems but also it contributes to real GDP. For policy purpose, the results of this study suggest that countries should concentrate on energy producing from waste as an alternative energy resource. Keywords: Sustainable development, Economic growth, Renewable energy consumption, US. JEL: O13, Q42, O51 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/3d4ff2b9b08ecbcac3130023fde0ccf6.pdf af9b6af30280b633dd9058cc742e0d22 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Elimination of Cr(VI) from aqueous solution by a new agro-waste material Şerife Parlayıcı, Erol Pehlivan Department of Chemical Engineering, Selcuk University, Campus, 42079 Konya, Turkey E-mail: erolpehlivan@gmail.com Abstract The efficiency of Wheat Straw (WS) and modified Wheat Straw (MWS) in removing Cr(VI) ions from aqueous solution was studied. Batch experiments were designed to obtain Cr(VI) ion sorption data. The influences of contact time, pH, adsorbent dose and initial chromium concentration on adsorption process performance was researched and an appropriate adsorption isotherm of Cr(VI) adsorption on (WS) and (MWS) was determined. The results of this study showed that adsorption of chromium by (RWS) and (MWS) reached to equilibrium after 120 min and after that a little change of chromium removal efficiency was observed. Higher Cr(VI) adsorption was observed at lower pH and maximum Cr(VI) concentration and lower adsorbent doses. The equilibrium sorption capacity of Cr(VI) ion after 120 min was 28.6 and 81.9 mg/g for (WS) and (MWS) respectively. The investigated adsorbents showed different adsorption capacities for Cr(VI) ions. Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms have been used to characterize observed biosorption phenomena of Cr(VI) ions on (MWS). The carboxyl groups on the surface of (MWS) were primarily responsible for the sorption of Cr(VI) ions. Keywords: Sorption; Cr(VI); Agricultural by-product; Citric acid 1.INTRODUCTION Environmental pollution and health by heavy metals is an important economic and environmental subject in many areas of the world (Köhler et al. 2007). Industrial wastes and domestic generated have been threating our aquatic environment. Significant amounts of toxic heavy metals in laden with debris are deposited into the natural aquatic ecosystems (Chen and Lim 2002). Chromium (Cr) is one of priority pollutants among heavy metals in surface water and groundwater cycle resulting from numerous industrial activities such as wood preservatives, textile dyeing, leather tanning, electroplating and metal plating operations. Cr(VI) containing wastewaters must be lowered to allowable limits before discharging into the environment ((Sonmez and Aksu 2002; Kobya, 2004). In recent years, increasing number of publications has been exhibited for the removal of heavy metals from aqueous medium by using adsorption techniques with different adsorbents (Chong and Volesky 1995; Chong and Volesky 1995). Studies reveal that various agricultural waste materials such as materials such as bark, hazelnut shells, peanut hulls, nuts, wood, soybean hulls, soybean straws, saw dust, walnut shells, osage orange etc. has been tried and the adsorption capacity of these natural by products and wastes could be enhanced by chemical modifications (Kobya 2004; Cimino et al. 2000; Hashem et al. 2005; Mohanty et al. 2005; Low et al. 2004; Marshall et al. 2001; Zhu et al. 2008; Raji and Anirudhan 1997; Sud et al. 2008; Altun and Pehlivan 2012; Pehlivan et al. 2012; Yu et al. 2001). The functional groups present in agricultural waste biomass such as acetamido, alcoholic, carbonyl, phenol, 36 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo amido, amino, sulphydryl groups etc. have affinity for chromium ions to form chelates. These groups have the affinity for Cr(VI) ion. The mechanism of adsorption process includes chemisorption, complexation, adsorption on surface, electrostatic attraction and ion exchange etc. (Sud et al. 2008). The purpose of this research was to gain a fundamental understanding of the chemical and physical phenomena associated with the binding of Cr(VI) ion to (WS) and (MWS) biosorbents. So a new group was substituted to (WS). The Cr(VI) ion retention on this adsorbent has been carried out batch wise where the influence of physico-chemical key parameters such as the solution pH, the initial metal concentration, contact time, and ionic strength has been considered. 2.Materials and methods 2.1.Materials (WS) was collected from vicinity of Konya-Turkey. Straws were ground with Retsch RM 100 model grinding machine. They were ground and sieved to obtain size of 100 µm. Before using raw straws, they were washed thoroughly with deionized water and dried in air oven at 100 °C for 24 h. All chemicals were of an analytical grade. Double distilled water was used to prepare all solutions throughout the experiments. Cr(VI) stock solution (from Merck) was prepared by dissolving K2Cr2O7 salt in double distilled water. Solutions of 0.01 M NaOH and HCl (from Merck) were used for pH adjustment. Experimental methods A series of standard Cr(VI) solution were prepared by appropriate dilution of the stock solution. A thermostated shaker of GFL 3033 model was used for adsorption experiments. The pH measurements were performed with Orion 900S2 Model pH meter. For Cr(VI) ion sorption studies, 40 mg WS was brought in contact with 25 mL of Cr(VI) solution using an orbital shaker at 25 C. After filtration, the filtrate was analyzed spectrophometrically for determining the Cr(VI) concentration in the solution phase. The remaining Cr(VI) ion in the solution was calculated by taking the difference of initial concentration and total Cr(VI) concentration in the filtrate. The concentrations of Cr(VI) ions in initial and final solutions were determined spectrophotometrically at 540 nm by UV-visible Spectrophotometer (Shimadzu UV-1700). For the determination of Cr(VI), its supernatant was separated from the reaction mixture and divided into two parts. In one part equilibrium concentration of the Cr(VI) was measured by adding 1,5 diphenyl carbazide as a complexing agent, whereas the second part was heated up to 130 C with KMnO4. 3. Results and discussion 3.1. Effect of solution initial pH on the Cr (VI) adsorption Earlier studies have shown that solution pH is an important parameter influencing the biosorption of Cr(VI) ions (Dönmez and Aksu 2002). Cr(VI) removal was investigated as a function of solution pH and the result is indicated in Figure 1. 37 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 100 Sorption (%) 75 Cr(VI) 50 Cr(III) 25 0 0 2 4 6 8 pH Figure 1. Effect of pH on the biosorption of Cr (VI) using (MWS). Biosorption conditions; initial concentration of Cr (VI): 2x10-3 mol/L, 0.1 g adsorbent, 40 mL of biosorption medium, temperature: 25 C, contact time: 120 min. As seen from this figure, the biosorption of Cr(VI) onto (WS) and (MWS) is strongly pHdependent. 82 % of the Cr(VI) adsorbed onto (MWS) from the solution when the optimum pH was around 2.0. There is a tendency to decrease in the removal when the solution pH is raised from 2.0 to 5.0 and thereafter the effect becomes negligible. Similar results were reported by other several workers (Sud et al. 2008). The decrease in the adsorption with the increase in solution pH may be ascribed to the decrease in electrostatic force of attraction between the adsorbent and the adsorbate. It has been verified that Cr(VI) can be easily reduced to Cr(III) in the presence of biosorbents and in acid media. Although the resarches on the chromium elimination by biosorption are numerous, few of them have analyzed the combined effect of the retention of Cr(VI) by the biosorbent and its reduction to Cr(III). There was sorption of Cr(VI) as well as Cr(III) during sorption of Cr(VI) on the surface of biosorbent. Reduction of Cr(VI) into Cr(III) is also clear from the aqueous chemistry of Cr(VI) at low pH value. The low pH also accelerates the redox reactions in aqueous and biosorbent phases, since the protons participate in these reactions. The mechanisms for the biosorption are: i) the reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) in presence of the biosorbent and in acid media. ii) the retention of the initially present Cr(VI) by the biosorbent, as well as of the Cr(III) formed during the reduction process (Sud et al. 2008). The decrease in Cr(VI) ion removal capacity (WS) and (MWS) at pH > 2.0 may be caused by hydrolysis accompanying by precipitation of metal hydroxides. This pH dependence of the binding showed that adsorption, chelation and electrostatic interactions were involved in the binding mechanism of Cr(VI) by (WS) and (MWS). Indeed, adsorption and chelation involving hydroxyl functions, close to carboxylated, may increase the binding level of Cr(VI) ions in addition to the electrostatic interactions taking place. It was confirmed that (WS) and (MWS) is dominated by negatively charged sites that are largely carboxylated groups with some weaker acidic groups. At pH values higher than 4, carboxyl groups are deprotonated and negatively charged. Consequently, the attraction of positively charged metal ions would be enhanced. At low pH, the surface of (WS) and (MWS) would also be surrounded by 38 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo hydronium ions, which decrease the Cr(VI) ion interaction with binding sites of the biosorbent by greater repulsive forces. 3.2. Effect of contact time 100 Sorption (%) 75 50 25 0 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 Contact Time(min) Figure 2. Effect of contact time on the sorption of Cr (VI) by (MWS). Biosorption conditions; initial concentration of Cr (VI): 2x10-3 mol/L, 0.1 g adsorbent, 40 mL of biosorption medium, temperature: 251C, pH 2.0. The effect of time on the adsorption of Cr(VI) ions by the (WS) and (MWS) was studied by taking 0.1 g sorbent with 40.0 ml of 0.001 M Cr(VI) solution in the plastic beakers. The beakers were shaken for different time intervals in a temperature-controlled shaker. Figure 2 showed the effect of contact time on adsorption of Cr(VI) ions using (MWS). The results showed that the percentage of Cr(VI) ion adsorption by (WS) and (MWS) increased with increasing time of equilibration and it reached the plateau value at about 120 min. 3.3. Effect of initial Cr(VI) concentration The Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms were both used to describe observed sorption phenomena of Cr(VI) on the biosorbents (Altun and Pehlivan 2012; Pehlivan et al. 2012; Yu et al. 2001). The Langmuir isotherm applies to adsorption on completely homogenous surfaces with negligible interaction between adsorbed molecules. For a single solute, it is given by the Freundlich model, which is an empirical model used to describe adsorption in aqueous systems, was also used to explain the observed phenomena of Cr(VI) biosorption on (MWS). The effect of sorbate concentration was shown in Figure 1. In the case of low Cr(VI) concentrations, the ratio of the initial number of moles of chromium ions to the available surface area was larger and subsequently the fractional biosorption became independent of initial concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, the available sites of adsorption became fewer, and hence the percentage removal of chromium ions depends upon the initial concentration. The amount of Cr(VI) ions adsorbed per unit mass of the (WS) and (MWS) 39 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo increased with the initial Cr(VI) concentration as expected. The sorption capacities was 28.6 and 81.9 mg/g for (WS) and (MWS) respectively. Table 1. Freundlich and Langmuir isotherm parameters of (MWS). Freundlich Isotherm a Langmuir Isotherm ka n R2 Kb As a R2 0.925 1.384 0.985 30.90 1.578 0.988 mmol/g dry adsorbent. The Langmuir model fitted well in the pH range 2.0. We found the Langmuir isotherm, to have the highest correlation coefficients of 0.988 for (MWS) (Table 1.). It was found that more than 82% removal of Cr(VI) was achieved using (MWS). Conclusion In this study, the toxic Cr(VI) ion biosorption on the inexpensive and efficient biosorbents from agricultural waste materials have been investigated as replacement strategy for existing conventional systems. The use of these low cost biosorbents is recommended since they are relatively cheap or of no cost, easily available, renewable and show highly affinity for Cr(VI) ions. Literature also reveals that in some cases the modification of the adsorbent increased the removal efficiency. (WS) both untreated and treated was effective in removal of Cr(VI) ion from aqueous solutions. Adsorption of Cr(VI) was dependent on its initial concentrations and pH of the Cr(VI) solution. The results indicate that the optimum pH for the removal of Cr(VI) ions by (WS) and (MWS) was around 2. Cr(VI) removal was built up; equilibrium conditions are attained after nearly 2 h. Isothermal data of Cr(VI) sorption on (MWS) can be modeled by Langmuir isotherm. The data in the linearized forms (Langmuir equation) gave satisfactory correlation coefficients for a part of the covered concentration range. REFERENCES Altun T., Pehlivan E. (2012) Removal of Cr(VI) from aqueous solutions by modified walnut shells. Food Chemistry, 132, 693–700. Chen J.P., Lim L.L. (2002) Key factors in chemical reduction by hydrazine for recovery of precious metals. Chemosphere 49, 363–370. Chong K.H., Volesky B. (1995) Description of two metal biosorption equilibria by Langmuirtype models. Biotechnology and Bioengineering 47, 451–460. Cimino G., Passerini A., Toscano G. (2000) Removal of toxic cations and Cr(VI) from aqueous solution by hazelnut shell. Water Research 34, 2955–2962. Dönmez G., Aksu Z. (2002) Removal of chromium(VI) from saline wastewaters by Dunaliella species. Process Biochemistry 38, 751–762. Hashem A., Abdel-Halim E.S., El-Tahlawy K.F., Hebeish A. (2005) Enhancement of adsorption of Co (II) and Ni (II) ions onto peanut hulls though esterification using citric acid. Adsorption Science and Technology 23, 367–380. 40 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kobya M. (2004) Adsorption, kinetic and equilibrium studies of Cr (VI) by hazelnut shell activated carbon. Adsorption Science and Technology 22, 51–64. Köhler S.J., Cubillas P., Rodríguez-Blanco J.D., Bauer C. and Prieto M. (2007) Removal of cadmium from wastewaters by aragonite shells and the influence of other divalent cations. Environmental Science & Technology 41, 112–118. Low K.S., Lee C.K., Mak S.M. (2004) Sorption of copper and lead by citric acid modified wood. Wood Science and Technology 38, 629–640. Marshall W.E., Chatters A.Z., Wartelle L.H., McAloon (2001) A., Optimization and estimated production cost of a citric acid-modified soybean hull ion exchanger. Industrial Crops and Products 14, 191–199. Marshall W.E. and Wartella L.H. (2003) Acid recycling to optimize citric acid-modified soybean hull production. Industrial Crops and Products 18, 177–182. Mohanty K., Jha M., Biswas M.N., Meikap B.C. (2005) Removal of chromium (VI) from dilute aqueous solutions by activated carbon developed from Terminalia Arjuna nuts activated with zinc chloride. Chemical Engineering Science 60, 3049–3059. Pehlivan E., Pehlivan E., Kahraman H. (2012) Hexavalent chromium removal by Osage Orange. Food Chemistry, (Accepted). Raji C. and Anirudhan T.S. (1997) Chromium (VI) adsorption by sawdust: kinetics and equilibrium. Indian Journal of Chemical Technology 4, 228–236. Sud D., Mahajan G., Kaur M.P. (2008) Agricultural waste material as potential adsorbent for sequestering heavy metal ions from aqueous solutions-a review. Bioresource Technology 99(14), 6017–6027. Yu B., Zhang Y., Shukla A., Shukla S.S., Dorris K.L. (2001) The removal of heavy metals from aqueous solution by saw dust adsorption. Removal of Pb(II) and comparison of its adsorption with copper. Journal of Hazardous Materials B84, 83–94. Zhu B., Fan T., Zhang D. (2008) Adsorption of copper ions from aqueous solution by citric acid modified soybean straw. Journal of Hazardous Materials 153, 300–308. Parasitic Diseases And Their Controls In Sustainable Development Of Aquculture Of Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus Thynnus) Erol Tokşen, Egemen Nemli,Uğur Değirmenci, Ulviye Karacalar Ege University, Fisheries Faculty, Department of Fish Diseases, Bornova 5100 İzmir, Turkey E-mails: erol.toksen@ege.edu.tr, egemen.nemli@ege.edu.tr, ugur.degirmenci@ege.edu.tr, ulviye.karacalar@ege.edu.tr Abstract In the last decades Turkish and Mediterranean mariculture has focused its production mainly on two species, gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata L.) and sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.). 41 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1224 Title A name given to the resource Elimination of Cr(VI) from aqueous solution by a new agro-waste material Author Author Şerife , Parlayıcı Abstract A summary of the resource. The efficiency of Wheat Straw (WS) and modified Wheat Straw (MWS) in removing Cr(VI) ions from aqueous solution was studied. Batch experiments were designed to obtain Cr(VI) ion sorption data. The influences of contact time, pH, adsorbent dose and initial chromium concentration on adsorption process performance was researched and an appropriate adsorption isotherm of Cr(VI) adsorption on (WS) and (MWS) was determined. The results of this study showed that adsorption of chromium by (RWS) and (MWS) reached to equilibrium after 120 min and after that a little change of chromium removal efficiency was observed. Higher Cr(VI) adsorption was observed at lower pH and maximum Cr(VI) concentration and lower adsorbent doses. The equilibrium sorption capacity of Cr(VI) ion after 120 min was 28.6 and 81.9 mg/g for (WS) and (MWS) respectively. The investigated adsorbents showed different adsorption capacities for Cr(VI) ions. Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms have been used to characterize observed biosorption phenomena of Cr(VI) ions on (MWS). The carboxyl groups on the surface of (MWS) were primarily responsible for the sorption of Cr(VI) ions. Keywords: Sorption; Cr(VI); Agricultural by-product; Citric acid Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General)