217 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/2b71d5651bb4f45bcf65e845a26b06f0.pdf 8f6855b07ba48329a24f8ce89808f188 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Garrod,B. Ve Fyall,A. (1998) “Beyond the Rhetoric of Sustainable Tourism?”, Tourism Management, Vol:19, No:3, pp.213-224 Kılıç, S., (2008). Çevre Etiği: Ortaya Çıkışı, Gelişimi ve Sonuçları, Orion Kitabevi, Ankara. Kumar,B. Ve Kumar,P. (2011), Green Economy: Policy Framework for Sustainable Development, Current Science, Vol. 100, No. 7, 10 April 2011, pp.960-962 Luke, T.W. (2002) Deep Ecology: Living As If Nature Mattered, Organization & Environmet, Volume 15, Issue 2, pp. 178-186 Metzner;R. (1994) Ekoloji Çağı, Derleyen Günseli Tamkoç, Derin Ekoloji, Ege Yayıncılık, İzmir Mutlu, A., (2008). Ekoloji ve Yönetim: Toplumsal Ekoloji ve Sürdürülebilir Gelişmenin Karşılaştırılması, Turhan Kitabevi, Ankara. Nemli, E., (2004). Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma: Şirketlerin Çevresel ve Sosyal Yaklaşımları, Filiz Kitabevi, İstanbul. Otegbulu, A.C. (2011) Economics of Green Design and Environmental Sustainability, Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, No. 2; April 2011, pp.240-248 Türkiye Çevre Sorunları Vakfı (1991) Ortak Geleceğimiz, TÇSV Yayınları, Ankara Uslu, O. (1997) Ekonomik ve Ekolojik Uygulamalarda Sürüdürülebilir Kalkınmanın Yeri, Sürdürülebilir Kalkınmanın Uygulaması, TÇV, Aralık WTO (1998) Guide for Local Authorities on Developing Sustainable Tourism, World Tourism Organization, Madrid http://www.guncelonkal.com/PDF/cevre_etigi_maddesi.pdf http://www.etik.gov.tr/makaleler/abdulkadir_mahmutoglu.pdf The Effect Of Religion On The Process Of Sustainable Development Economy (In Terms Of Thrift) Mehmet Masum Ocak1, Mehmet Günay2, Gülenaz Selçuk1 1Celal Bayar University, Faculty of Education Lecturer, Manisa. Turkey, 2Celal Bayar University, Faculty of Science-Literature, Asst. Prof. Dr , Manisa, Turkey, Emails: masumocak@hotmail.com, mehmetgunay2006@hotmail.com, gselcuk@hotmail.com “We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children.” An Indian proverb. Abstract In this study, we have tried to emphasize that from the perspective of sustainable development economy, the factor of religion affects communal incidents in our social life. 318 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Since religion, a need for a person, who is a member of a community, presents itself as a reality of a society as well. Sustainable development aims at protecting and exploiting natural resources in the most effective way. The concept of sustainable development put forward with no hesitation entails its implementation in all societies throughout the world and requires governments to take responsibilities for this matter. Sustainable development gives priority to a person’s health, happiness and adaptation to his environment. It is out of question to separate or isolate religion, one of the most prominent features of life forms, from the social, cultural or economic dynamics of a community. Our religion, Islam, which regards happiness of individuals and societies as essential in the world and hereafter, sets rules to live our lives in harmony and in a well-balanced way. It also orders us to sensibly spend what we have earned according to the limits of thrift. Everyone is going to be asked to answer the questions of how he made a living, where and how he spent it. While spending his money, he is required to take his needs, instead of his wills, into consideration and not to spend too much or waste it by staying away from any extreme expenditure. Apart from the warning against spending on the areas forbidden by the religion, there is insistence on being thrifty and frugal. Extravagance/waste is one of the most serious dangers that a sustainable development economy can ever confront. Since as an outcome of waste, individuals and naturally communities will start to lose all the facilities and things they have already possessed, and face the challenges and deprivations ensued from their absence. They will turn out to be a dependent population. Today, while people are starving in many parts of the world, it is hard even to state the limits of the waste that some of us have caused. We should not neglect that we can make use of our religion’s, Islam’s, orders and prohibitions in order to stop waste and encourage to be frugal in the work process of sustainable development economy. We have tried to explain in detail the hadiths, our Prophet’s statements, and verses which are the essential references of our religion. Keywords: Thrift, Religion, Verse, Hadith, Sustainable Development, Waste 1.INTRODUCTION Sustainable development has the meaning of programming today’s and tomorrow’s life and development in such a way that it maintains the balance between humans and nature, responds to the needs of next generations and facilitates their development without depleting natural resources. Sustainable development is a concept with social, ecological, economic, spatial and cultural dimensions. This is a process of progress that increases life standards by focusing on such subjects which aim to diminish the disaster risks as economical development and preserving ecological system along with socio-cultural progress, political stability and determination. While defining sustainable development, the most significant factor may be the balance between ‘today’ and ‘tomorrow’. For the generations of both today and the future, it is of importance to reach economical, social and ecological aims, that is, developmental aims in awell-balanced way. Long-term planning and thinking. Each person has the duties and responsibilities to his Creator, prophet, the religion he serves, himself, spouse, children, parents, siblings, natural environment and society. A person 319 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo is going to be questioned for what he has done with his eye, ear, hand, foot and heart along with all the knowledge, actions, spiritual and physical blessings given to him. “Our religion taking individual and social peace and happiness as a basis sets rules to live life in a balanced way and orders to properly use what we have earned with respect to the criteria of thrift. Each person is going to be asked how he has earned his life and what he has spent his savings on. He has to consider his needs rather than desires while sending his savings. Expenditure is banned in the areas prohibited by Allah; and the principle of not wasting is set for the situations permitted by the religion”. (Ergenekon, 1996) Our religion is such a religion that never permits abuse or colonialism as extreme wealth and luxurious expenditure are banned by Islam. Prevention of expenditure on luxury could not encourage capital accumulation as much as it was in the west since such transfers of financial assets as offerings and alms forestalled getting extremely rich and maintained a well-balanced fiscal distribution in society. Allah states in one verse “ Your riches and your children may be but a trial: whereas Allah, with Him is the highest, Reward.”.(at-Teğabun, 64/15) This verse demonstrates that property is sedition. Here, sedition means a matter of testing. Otherwise, if its literal meaning was taken into consideration, it would be necessary to get rid of world’s assets. However, our Almighty Lord orders Muslims to work for the world as much as they should do for hereafter. Displaying property as sedition, He implies the anarchy and depression caused by not being able to use it to good advantage. In one account, while walking, our Prophet and his friends came across with a young man working very ambitiously. When some said “I wish this young man was working for something related to hereafter instead of worldly”, our Prophet said: “Don’t say so; if he is working in order not to go around begging or need someone’s help, he is on Allah’s track. If he is making a living for his old parents or children, he is still on Allah’s track. However, if he is working to show off or swing the lead, he is on devil’s track.” Spending the physical and spiritual belongings in vain is called extravagance. Therefore, if a person unduly spends his money, property, time or natural resources, what he does is extravagance. In other words, it is also called waste. Millions or billions of dollars goes for nothing owing to extravagance, the varieties and damages of which are too many to count. Therefore, a man who witnesses people and children starving does not choose food, throw bread into the bin, waste food. Besides, considering the cities and countries in shortage of water does not waste energy. As being aware of the people who cannot make ends meet, he does not care luxurious goods and does not waste his money. Varieties of waste: waste in food and drink, clothes, time, information, health, energy resources, etc. Thrift is necessary not only for particular social strata but all individuals of a society as well. For this reason, thrift spreading in all social strata allows the middle class to get stronger. “Three significant tenets of Islam played an important role in the course of economic development. The first of these tenets is the basis that all the things on the Earth are created for all humans. The second important principle is the one that prevents luxury and grandeur (the principle that bans the building to show off). Finally the third principle is the one that 320 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo ascertains the necessity of learning and teaching all kinds of science and knowledge. It also underscores that keeping such knowledge hidden is forbidden by the religion”. (Bilgiseven, 1987) The Almighty Allah has created all the beauties and blessings for us. We have been trusted with all these beauties and blessings given by Allah. All the blessings Allah has granted on us such as life, health, children, property, title, etc. could be test items. We are going to be questioned if we wasted them and how we used those blessings. Regarding to our topic, Allah says “Then on that day you shall most certainly be questioned about the boons.” (Tekasür, 102/8) On this topic, our prophet also said that: On Judgement Day, no one can move away from his tracks unless he is questioned about where he spent his life, his actions, how he made a living, what he spent his money on, how he used his body and health (Tirmizi, Kıyame, 1) One of the tenets our glorious religion, Islam, adopts is being economical and moderate. Being economical and moderate amounts to one being prudent about everything including spending, talking, drinking and eating. “The opposite is waste. Waste means going to the extremes in any subject, deviating from the right and true, transgressing the limits, spending the chances and assets on unnecessary things or abundantly.” (Yazır, 1992) In short, waste means spending the blessings a person possesses unduly and extremely ( Şamil, İslam Ans. “İsraf” ) In Islam, waste is banned by verses and hadiths. “O Children of Adam! wear your beautiful apparel at every time and place of prayer: eat and drink: But waste not by excess, for Allah loveth not the wasters”. (Araf, 7/31 ) “And give to the near of kin his due and (to) the needy and the wayfarer, and do not squander wastefully. Surely the squanderers are the fellows of the Shaitans and the Shaitan is ever ungrateful to his Lord. ”( İsra, 17/27 ) Verses clearly display this ban. The verse describes waste as ingratitude to Allah and the ones doing so as Satan’s sibling, which proves how horrible ‘extravagance’ or ‘being lavish’ is. Our prophet says “Eat, drink, wear and give alms without being arrogant or without wasting” (Buhari, Libas, 1) This hadith attracting our attention gives an opinion about how meticuluous Islam is on the subject of ‘waste’. Our prophet once visited Sa’d, one of his friends. Meanwhile, Sa’d was performing his ablution. When Resulüllah noticed that he was using water more than necessary, he asked what the waste was that. When Sa’d asked whether there was waste in performin ablution, our prophet responded “Yes, even if you perform your ablution in flowing river” (İbn Mace, Taharet, 48). Our religion asked us not to overuse water even from a flowing river even for religious services. The Almighty Allah created everything in balance. Humans must be moderate in all areas of life including expenditure. Islam takes the necessity as a basis in spending money, goods and property; and bans spending in vain. Expenditure must be correlated with the necessity, not income. Even if our income incresases, our expenditure should not go beyond the limits of our necessity. Just like in all areas, Islam orders to be moderate by staying away from the extremes of being lavish or stingy. In our religion, this criteria is regarded one of the features of a perfect Muslim. 321 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo As regards to the topic, Allah says: “Make not thy hand tied (like a niggard's) to thy neck, nor stretch it forth to its utmost reach, so that thou become blameworthy and destitute.” ( İsra, 17/29 ) In another verse: ” Those who, when they spend, are not extravagant and not niggardly, but hold a just (balance) between those (extremes).” (Furkan, 25/67 ). In the verse, while being mean and lavish is criticised, being moderate is praised; and this attitude is mentioned is one of the features of Allah’s slaves. When we look at the verses and hadiths, it is clear that we are asked not to waste our assets, goods, properties while buying what we need. And this way of acting is emphasized as one of the features of a perfect Muslim. “O Children of Adam! wear your beautiful apparel at every time and place of prayer: eat and drink: But waste not by excess, for Allah loveth not the wasters.” stated in Araf 7/31. In the verse, on the one hand a person is ordered to eat and drink and on the other hand not go to extremes in those actions. In other words, just like in everything, there must be a moderate way even for eating and drinking. “He may say (boastfully): "Wealth have I squandered in abundance !. " Thinketh he that none beholdeth him?" (Beled, 6-7) As stated in the verse below, negligent people ignore a simple fact: Our Holy Lord has granted countless blessings to humans including flesh, air, food, the devices they use. Whatever is on the earth and heaven along with all visible and invisible grants and livelihoods is at his disposal. A man’s duty is to use what has been given to him in a moderate way and not to waste In the Koran, Allah warns that humans are going to be questioned about the blessings given to them in hereafter with the question “Then on that day you shall most certainly be questioned about the boons.” (Tekasür, 102/8) In the Koran, Allah says, “O Children of Adam! wear your beautiful apparel at every time and place of prayer: eat and drink: But waste not by excess, for Allah loveth not the wasters.” (Araf, 7/31) He also states the believers should benefit the blessings and forbids their waste. However, it should be underscored that not wasting does not amount to rejecting the wealth, limiting the expenditure on the areas that Allah gives permission or being unfair to ourselves. The single criteria here should be whether the expenditure has been for Allah’s will or not. Muslims both thank for the blessings and be very careful about not wasting. Considering the verse, “Those who, when they spend, are not extravagant and not niggardly, but hold a just (balance) between those (extremes).” (Furkan, 25/67), they use food, water, clothes, things provided by technology as much as they need. 2.CONCLUSION Extravagance harms both an individual and the whole society. This leads our family and nation to be poor. A lavish person always tries to spend money recklessly. As he is used to spending money a lot, when he is short of money, he tries illegal ways to make money. Sometimes, he becomes a burden on the shoulders of his family, society and country since he is in despair help of the others. It is quite often to see such occasions in society. Wasteful people and nations get disappointed sooner or later. They find themselves in the abyss of despair and hopelessness. 322 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Not only individuals, countries and nations could be prodigal as well. Prodigality even depletes seemingly countless troves. I could deplete forests, ores, water and sources of petrol and electricity. The exhaustion of such reserves causes those nations to be in need of the others. The negative effects of waste become more influential in today’s financial life. In the old days when economies depend on agriculture, the discrepancy between welfare and poverty was not as visible as it is a present. In today’s industrialised communities which are transforming into communities of information, there are people who live far beyond the level welfare along with the ones trying to survive in abject poverty. Over industrialism, arms race and insatiable greed of the colonialists to find more raw materials damaged the agricultural areas which have a vital importance on the Earth. Therefore, the West’s finances which currently depend on over consumption and waste confront dire straits. Such troubles affect all the economies in the globalized world. Although the west have managed to maintain financial welfare so far, they admit that at present resources are limited; water and food with a crucial role in conserving prosperity have always been wasted recklessly and from now on humans do not have the luxury of squandering. For a society to survive, individuals have duties to the community they live in. Besides it is essential to keep social balance and peace and to ward off any factor that may cause tension among people. Sustainable development aims to the protection and effectively use of natural resources. The concept of sustainable development put forward with no hesitation entails its implementation in all societies throughout the world and requires governments to take responsibilities for this matter. . It is out of question to separate or isolate religion, one of the most prominent features of life forms, from the social, cultural or economic dynamics of a community. It is out of question to separate or isolate religion, one of the most prominent features of life forms, from the social, cultural or economic dynamics of a community. Our religion Islam, focusing on the peace of individuals and society both in the world and hereafter, sets rules to live life in a well-balanced way, and orders us to duly spend what we earn by paying attention to the criteria of thrift. A person is going to be asked how he made a living, how and on what he spent his money. Our religion asks us to take our needs into consideration rather than our desires when it comes to spending, and also we are encouraged not to waste or go to the extremes. There should be no expenditures on the areas forbidden by the religion and there is strong insistence on being thrifty and moderate. We have tried to explain in detail the hadiths, our Prophet’s statements, and verses which are the essential references of our religion. In this study, we have tried to emphasize that from the perspective of sustainable development economy, the factor of religion affects communal incidents in our social life. Since religion, a need for a person, who is a member of a community, presents itself as a reality of a society as well. We should not ignore that we can make the most of our religion’ s orders and prohibitions as regards thrift and preventing waste in the process of sustainable development economy. BIBLIOGRAPHY BİLGİSEVEN, A. (1987) Eğitim Sosyolojisi, Publication of the Turkish World Research Foundation , (4. Edition), Flaş Matbaası, İstanbul BUHARİ, (1986), Libas, Kütübü Sitte, Akçağ Yayınları, İstanbul 323 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo ERGENEKON, S. (1996), Tasarruf Eğilimini Etkileyen Sosyolojik Faktörler, PhD Thesis, Istanbul University Institute of Social Sciences , İstanbul İBNİ MACE, (1986), Taharet, Kütübü Sitte, Akçağ Yayınları, İstanbul ŞAMİL İSLAM ANSİKLOPEDİSİ, (1998), “İsraf”, Şamil Yayınları, İstanbul Meaning of The QURAN, http://www.kuranikerim.com/english/m_indexe.htm YAZIR, E.H.( 1992), Hak Dini Kur’an Dini, Zehraveyn Yayınları, İstanbul TİRMİZİ, (1986), Kıyame, Kütübü Sitte, Akçağ Yayınları, İstanbul Macroeconomic determinants of Sustainable Development in Bosnia and Herzegovina Emil Knezović, Uğur Ergun International Burch University, Faculty of Management, 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mail: kinez88@hotmail.com Abstract The origin of term sustainable development comes from forestry and it means the extent of cutting and putting the new trees on the planet. Synonymous for it is sustainability and it refers to ability to endure as much longer as it is possible. This paper shows the degree of correlation between sustainable development in Bosnia and Herzegovina and five macroeconomic determinants: unemployment, export, import, average salaries and CPI as a measure for inflation. The paper provides information about importance of economy in this process and it explains all variables that are used. It is based on the period of five consecutive years (2007-2011). Research for all of five variables was conducted on monthly basis for this period, so in total it provides 58 data (January and February of 2007 are excluded) for each variable. Next thing that this paper shows is the current position of the country in terms of its development. The paper represents a combination of basic research (provides a lot of useful information about the topic) and quantitative research (shows numerical results that are gotten by the analysis of the problem). Unemployment, as one of the biggest and growing problems in the country, is dependent variable and paper tries to prove relationships among this variable and the others. Results in the paper are obtained through descriptive analysis. The paper provides data about causes for high unemployment in our country and it shows how much impact each variables mentioned above have or does it have at all. Finally, paper shows on what country should put more emphasize in order to improve its current position and to be able to compete with more developed countries. 324 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1341 Title A name given to the resource The Effect Of Religion On The Process Of Sustainable Development Economy (In Terms Of Thrift) Author Author Mehmet , Masum Ocak Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, we have tried to emphasize that from the perspective of sustainable development economy, the factor of religion affects communal incidents in our social life.Since religion, a need for a person, who is a member of a community, presents itself as a reality of a society as well. Sustainable development aims at protecting and exploiting natural resources in the most effective way. The concept of sustainable development put forward with no hesitation entails its implementation in all societies throughout the world and requires governments to take responsibilities for this matter. Sustainable development gives priority to a person’s health, happiness and adaptation to his environment. It is out of question to separate or isolate religion, one of the most prominent features of life forms, from the social, cultural or economic dynamics of a community. Our religion, Islam, which regards happiness of individuals and societies as essential in the world and hereafter, sets rules to live our lives in harmony and in a well-balanced way. It also orders us to sensibly spend what we have earned according to the limits of thrift. Everyone is going to be asked to answer the questions of how he made a living, where and how he spent it. While spending his money, he is required to take his needs, instead of his wills, into consideration and not to spend too much or waste it by staying away from any extreme expenditure. Apart from the warning against spending on the areas forbidden by the religion, there is insistence on being thrifty and frugal. Extravagance/waste is one of the most serious dangers that a sustainable development economy can ever confront. Since as an outcome of waste, individuals and naturally communities will start to lose all the facilities and things they have already possessed, and face the challenges and deprivations ensued from their absence. They will turn out to be a dependent population. Today, while people are starving in many parts of the world, it is hard even to state the limits of the waste that some of us have caused. We should not neglect that we can make use of our religion’s, Islam’s, orders and prohibitions in order to stop waste and encourage to be frugal in the work process of sustainable development economy. We have tried to explain in detail the hadiths, our Prophet’s statements, and verses which are the essential references of our religion. Keywords: Thrift, Religion, Verse, Hadith, Sustainable Development, Waste Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/954854b2ccb70e1b6d4336134ac3ca15.pdf cfe63acf56033a8b8da519e4c073a0f0 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Turkish Airlines, Labor, Last Accessed on 4 30, http://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-tr/kurumsal/basin-odasi/THY/is-gucu. 2012, from Turkish Airlines, Turkish Airlines’ 2010 Annual Report, Last Accessed on 4 27, 2012, from www.turkishairlines.com/tr-TR/faaliyet-raporu/2010/pdf/tr-thy2010.pdf Turkish Airlines, The Activity Report of The Board of Directors For the Period 1 January to 31 December 2011, Last Accessed on 4 28, 2012, from http://wwwdownload.thy.com/download/investor_relations/annual_reports/faaliyet_raporu_ar alik_2011.pdf. Turkish Airlines, The Number of Passengers, Last Accessed on 4 28, 2012, from http://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-tr/kurumsal/basin-odasi/THY/yolcu-sayisi. UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development, Sustainable Aviation, Last Accessed on 04 20, 2012, from http://www.desd.org.uk/UserFiles/File/new_articles/pro_body_participation/sustainable_aviat ion/Sustainable-Aviation-full-document.pdf UN Development of Economic and Social Affairs, Aviation and Sustainable Development, Last Accessed on 04 25, 2012, from http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/csd/csd9_bp9.pdf Upham, P., Maughan, J., Raper, D. And Thomas, C., (2003). Towards Sustainable Development, Earthscan Publications, 39, 115. Forecasting Carbon Emission For Turkey: Time Series Analysis Mehmet Mercan1, Etem Karakaya2 1Hakkari University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science 2Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science E-mail: mmercan48@gmail.com; mehmetmercan@hakkari.edu.tr, ekarakaya@gmail.com Abstract Within the context of sustainable development objectives, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that cause climate change was first discussed and officially negotiated at the 1992 Rio Conference, which particularly emphasised developed countries to take serious measures. Then, it was followed by the Kyoto Protocol, which specified national ghg emission reduction targets for developed countries. With Kyoto Protocol, it was decided for these countries to reduce global emissions by 5% below 1990 levels compared to 2008-2012 emission levels. Turkey became a party to the Kyoto Protocol in 2009, yet due to their special circumstances they did not take any emission reduction commitments.. Negotiations on Post-2012 emission reduction obligations are still in progress under the UNFCCC umbrella and it is expected to have emission reduction targets not only by developed countries but also by developing ones. In this regard, it is important for Turkey to estimate its future ghg emissions, if they have to take a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) for their strategy. There are various ghg emission estimations for 2020 and the results indicate different emission levels. 167 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Objective of this study is to estimate ghg emission levels for Turkey for 2020 and afterwards by using time series and regression analysis. Then, appropriate policy implications are discussed with the result of these findings. Keywords : Carbon Emissions, Time Series Analysis, climate change policy,emission projections 1.INTRODUCTION Global warming and climate change is the common problem of the whole world and humanity, concerning many sectors including industry, trade, tourism andagriculture. Acting in coordination, analyzing the elements leading to the problem is important in solving this issue. As the development levels, energy resources and population structures of countries are not homogenous, the possible emission reduction rates due to their strategies to combat global warming, applicable tools and measures taken, would also be different. Tasking the same amount of green house gas reductionto a developed country and a developing country would have negative consequences on the economy of the developing country. Turkeyhas reached a growth trend since 2002 following the introduction of strong economy programme, and is since among the group of developing countries. In line with her growing economy, greenhouse gas emission has increased, which is a source ofglobal warming.In her combat against global warming, it is important for Turkey to choose the most appropriate tools, which would not harm the economic growth, or keep the damage at a minimum level. At this point, the NationalGreenhouse Gas Emission Inventoryis the most important reference. This inventory needs to be prepared annually by each United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention (UNCCFC) signing country and submitted to the UNCCFC secretariat. Thanks to this inventory, countries are able to determine greenhouse gas emission amounts, sources and sectoral breakdown. 2. Climate Change negotiations and Turkey A member of OECD since 1961, Turkey has been included to ANNEX-I countries group, primarily responsible for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and at the same time, to ANNEX-II countries which shall be providing financial and technical assistance to reduce emissions from the underdeveloped countries. The economic development level of Turkey is generally lower than both OECD countries, and the other ANNEX II countries. It is not rational for Turkeyto have the same emission reduction commitment as economically developed countries. Therefore, Turkey has not signed the CCFC during the 1992 Rio Conference, even though she approved its principles, claiming she could not fulfil the commitments. According to the Kyoto Protocol, ratified in1997 at theConference of Parties 3 and opened to signature on 16 March 1998, countries in the ANNEX I group are obliged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to under 5% of the1990 levels, between 2008-2012. This target set by the Kyoto Protocolis being regarded as one of the most important international steps taken towards limiting the greenhouse gas emissions. During the 1997 Conference of Parties3 (COP3) in Kyoto, Turkey demanded for CCFC to be removed from both Annexes, however, as this demand was not accepted, Turkey did not become a party to Kyoto Protocol. During the Conference of Parties 6 held in the Hague in 2000, Turkey has stated that she would become a side to CCFC as an ANNEX-I country, on 168 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo condition that she is removed from ANNEX II and provided technical assistance, financial assistance and capacity development, just like the former socialist states transforming to fee market economies. As part of the decision taken at the Hague Conference, it was accepted for Turkey to be removed from ANNEX-II, by the following decision taken atConference of Parties 7 in Marrakech in 2001: “By recognizing the special conditions of Turkey compared to the other countries listed in ANNEX-I of the convention, it is decided to keep Turkey in ANNEX-I but remove form ANNEX-II, by decision number26/CP.7” (UNCCFC, 2001: 2). Following these developments, the law on Turkey to join Climate Change Framework Convention was signed on 24 May 2004 and Turkey became the 189th country to become a side to the Climate Change Framework Convention. The law on Turkey to join Kyoto Protocolwas adopted on 26 August 2009 and Turkeybecame a side to the Protocol. Not being a side to UNCCFCon the acception date (1997) of the Protocol, Turkey was not included to the Protocol ANNEX-B list, which defines the numerical emission limiting or reduction commitments of ANNEX-I Parties. Therefore, there is no numerical emission limiting or reduction commitment for Turkey during the first commitment period of the Protocol, covering the 2008-2012 period. (http://climate.cob.gov.tr/climate/AnaSayfa/BMIDCS.aspx?sflang=tr Access: 07.12.2011). 3. Global Warming Trend, Projectionsand Scenarios By looking at the data gathered from all the studies on global warming, it is possible to say that greenhouse gas emissions within the atmosphere are constantly on the rise. According to the fourth and latest assessment report published by IPCC in 2007; the temperature of the earth and oceans are increasing, glaciers are melting environmental transformation is taking place at a very fast speed. As well as the IPCC reports, studies are being held on climate change in many different countries. As an example; according to the measurements since 1958 by the Government of the United States of America National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s observatory located in Hawaii Island’s Mauna Loa Mountain (3500m) in the middle of Pacific Ocean, carbon-dioxide accumulation within the atmosphere is rising at an incredible speed (Figure 1). Other than the Mauna Loa observatory, a number of fixed stations such as Law Dome, Adalie Land, South Pole and Siple, and aeroplanes for certain heights of the atmosphere, are being constantly used to measure greenhouse gas, and increases in greenhouse gas emissions are being scientifically set forth (Özçağ, 2011. s:12). Figure 1: Development of CO2Density at the Atmosphere 169 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Source: http://www.licor.com/env/newsline/tag/keeling-curve/, Access: 13.03.2012 The saw shaped graphic at the first part of Figure 1 is being called as the Keeling curve. The reason for the saw shape is representing the plants absorbing carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere during the summer months, and giving back during the winter (Madra and Şahin, 2007:30-33). As it could be viewed from Figure 1, while the CO2 density in the atmosphere between 17501900 increased from 280 ppm (parts per million) to 285 ppm, an increase of just 5ppm, it increased from 280 ppm to 360 ppm between 1900-2000, an increase of 75 ppm. By industrialization since the 1900’s, the increase in CO2 density is 15 times the level of the previous period (http://www.brophy.net/weblog/pivot/entry.php?id=10, Access:27.11.2011). The annual CO2 emissiondue to fossil fuel consumption was 6.4 GtC (Giga Ton Carbon) in 1990, but during the 2000-2005 period, it increased to 7.2 GtC. The atmospheric density of Methane, another greenhouse gas, was 715 ppb (parts per billion) in pre-industry period, and increased to 1732 ppb during the early 1990’s, and in 2005, the figure was 1774 ppb. During the same period, nitric oxide levels rose from 215 ppb to 317 ppb (IPCC, 2007a: 2-3). According to Assessment Report 4 (AR4) by IPCC; due to the great increases of the carbondioxide emissions, the average increase in surface temperatures until the year 2100 is expected to be approximately 3 Co, or somewhere between 2 Coand 4.5 Co. In addition, many scenarios anticipate that an increase of 0.2 Co/10 years would take place for the next 20 years (Türkeş, 2007: 50). And it is claimed that sea levels would rise by 0.1 -0.9 metres between 1990 and 2100 (EEA, 2003: 94). As well as the reports prepared by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to give insight on the current situation, various scenarios are being prepared on the future of global warming and on emission reduction. IPCC’s greenhouse gas emission reductionscenarios were included in its first assessment report in 1990. These initial scenarios, prepared for the 1990-2100 period, were updated with a greater scope and published in 1992. These emissionscenarios known as “IS92”,deal with atmospheric composition and it’s effects on the climate. The aim of these studies is; to determine the expected greenhouse gas emission increases until 2100 and the related green house gas rates in the atmosphere; to determine the regional distribution of changes caused by global warming and rain regimes stemming from increased greenhouse gasses, by employing these values in various climate models, to determine land and sea temperatures and to determine the possible consequences of climate change. Following the initial scenarios, IPCC has accepted to prepare a new emissionscenario in1996. These new scenarios are named Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In IPCC’sSRES Report published in2001 and 2007, there are four different scenariofamilies. The details of these scenarios were explained in the 2001 report, and updated in the 2007 report. These scenarios are A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios. A1 Scenario Group is based on the assumption that the world economy would develop rapidly by the use of new and more effective technologies, population increase would reach its highest value at mid-centuryand then decrease. The emphasized areas in thisscenario family are such issues as the interregional intimacy due to the important decreases in regional differences on income per person, capacity growth, and increase in cultural and social relations. A1 Scenario group includes sub scenarios on different developments in energy systems such as A1FI (fossil intense energy technologies), A1T (non fossil-sourced energy use) and A1B (a balanced distribution between all sources) (IPCC, 2007a: SPM, s:18). 170 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A2 Scenario Group is based on an unbalanced and slow economic growth with a rapid increase in population, a non-homogenous world, with a structure where no special measures are taken against global warmingand environmental change issues. B1 Scenario Group, is based on the same assumptions as A1 scenarios but anticipates an economic growth which does not need over consumption of energy, with an emphasis on service sector. In this scenario, clean technologies based on more effective use of sources shall be used. And finally, B2 Scenario Group; it has an approach where economic, social and environmental capacitiesare mainly solved at a local scale (IPCC, 2007a: SPM, s:18). IPCC scenarios’ anticipations on world population and economy are given in the below table: Table1: Economic Estimates of SRES 2001 Scenarios Per Capita Income Population Gross Product (Billion People) (Trillion Dollar) (Developed/Developing Countries) 2050 2100 2050 2100 2050 2100 A1 8,70 7,04 164,5 518,8 2,8 1,5 A2 11,29 14,71 111,3 248,5 6,6 4,2 B1 8,7 7,04 135,6 328,4 3,6 1,8 B2 9,8 10,3 75,7 198,7 4 3 Scenario Source: http: //www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/data/allscen.xls, Data: 27.11.2011. In the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) prepared by IPCC, carbon-dioxide andothergreenhouse gasemissions are predicted to be increased at important levels during the next century. According to the report, global temperature would rise by 0.2 C 0per 10 years, for the next 20 years (IPCC, 2007a: 12). Temperature increases and sea level changes projected for the 21st century are given in Table 1.3. Table 2: SRES 2090-2099 Estimations by 1980-1990 Data Temperature Change Scenario Change in Sea Level (C 0 ) (mt) Estimate Range B1 1.8 1.1 - 2.9 0.18 - 0.38 A1T 2.4 1.4 - 3.8 0.20 - 0.45 B2 2.4 1.4 - 3.8 0.20 - 0.43 A1B 2.8 1.7 - 4.4 0.21 - 0.48 171 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A2 3.4 2.0 - 5.4 0.23 - 0.51 A1FI 4.0 2.4 - 6.4 0.26 - 0.59 Source : IPCC, 2007a. SPM, s.13. According to (B1) scenario where global warming level is the lowest, it is estimated that the temperature increase in 2090-2099 period would be 1.8 C0when compared to 1980-1990 period. The temperature increase during the period in subject is expected to be in the range of 1.1 C0and 2.9 C0. According to this scenario, it is calculated that the sea level would rise between 0.18 - 0.38 metres. And according to the A1FI scenario where global warming level is at its highest, world surface temperature isexpected to rise by 4 C0, while an increase of 0.26 - 0.59 metres is anticipated in the sea level. This has been shown in Figure 1.6. Figure 2: Change Trend in Sea Levels Source: IPCC, 2007a. s:409-410. In the first part of Figure 2, changes in the sea level based on 1980-1999 are given. The period covering the years 1800 - 1870 is an estimation, while the figures for the period 1870–2000 is based on apparatus measurements (Tide Gauge). Sea level change values for the 2000–2100 period have been estimated by using the SRES A1B scenario. The second part of the panel has been acquired by using the annual mean sea level values. Values for 1870 - 1950 period have been extracted from Church and White (2006)’s work, while post-1950 values have been extracted from Holgate and Woodworth (2004), and Leuliette et. al. (2004)’s work, and they are within 90%confidence interval. According to SRES Scenarios, the increase in atmosphericdensity of carbon-dioxide emission, increases the acidity levels of the oceans. According to estimates, PH values of the oceans would decrease during the 21st Century by 0.14 and 0.35. Lowered pH values of the oceans means an increase in the acidity levels. With an increased acidity level and temperature, oceans would lose their ability to absorb carbon over time (IPCC, 2007a. SPM, s:14). 4. Worldwide Trend and Reasons for Increase of Greenhouse Gas Causing Climate Change Humankind is faced with the enigma of global warming and climate change, by using the nature to acquire the raw materials for his never ending demands, using fossil sourced energy 172 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo during production phase, wastes released to the nature during production and consumption phases, increase in world population, damages occurred to the environment and forests. When evaluating these situations as a general, global warmingandclimate change issues are human sourced issues. In Table3, human sourced distribution of greenhouse gas emissions per country, and the total amount in a world scale in 2009 have been given. As Table 3 indicates, the top five countries with highest greenhouse gas emissions are China, America, India, Russia and Japan. These countries have a total emission of 16,235 Million Tonnes of CO2e, and their share in total greenhouse gas emission is 51.9%. Turkeyon the other hand, had a CO2e emission of 256 Million Tonnes in2009, and in total greenhouse gas emissions, Turkey’s share is eight per mille (% 0.8). Table 3: Countries with High CO2 Emission Levels in 2009 (Mt CO2e)* 1-China 6,831 12-Mexico 399 2-America 5,195 13-Australia 394 3-India 1,585 14-Italy 389 4-Russia 1,532 15-Indonesia 376 5-Japan 1,092 16-South Africa 369 6-Germany 750 17-France 354 7-Iran 533 18-Brazil 337 8-Canada 520 19-Poland 286 9-South Korea 515 20-Spain 283 10-England 465 21-Ukraine 256.39 11- Saudi Arabia 410 22-Turkey 256.31 World Total 28,999 Milyon Ton CO2e Çin Amerika Hindistan Rusya Japonya Almanya İran Kanada Güney Kore İngiltere Suudi Arabistan Meksika Austuralya İtalya Endonezya Güney Afrika Fransa Brezilya Polonya İspanya Ukrayna Türkiye 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 173 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Source : IEA, KWES, 2011, s. 48-57. Values in the table have been created by the authors. *:Including land use, land use differences, and green house gas reductionchanges of the forestry sector. Humanity’s will to damage the nature for a wealthier life, as well as the above mentioned human sourced factors, are leading to global warmingand climate change. Among the human sourced environmental issues, we may count fossil sourced energy use, industrialization and urbanization, population increase, land use changes and agriculture-stock breeding activities. 5. Carbon EmissionScenarios In this part of the study, before starting with thescenarioimplementations, 2011 macroeconomic variables data for Turkey and general and sectoral carbon emission projections for the 2011-2020 period will be given. Figure 3: 1990-2009* TotalEmissions (Mt CO2e) 400 349.6 380.0 350 312.3 297.0 300 286.1 278.1 250 366.5 369.7 329.9 302.8 237.5 200 187.0 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1995 1990 150 Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse GasEmission Inventory Reportdata have been consolidated by the authors. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf. As Figure 3 indicates, Turkey’s carbon emission of 187 Mt CO2e in 1990 has increased by 58% and became 297 Mt CO2e in 2000. The rate of increase has slowed down since 2000and it became 369,7 Mt CO2e in 2009, an increase of 24%. Since 2000’s, with the introduction of “transition to the strong economy program”, there have been great increases in GNP, export and import values (for instance; export increase 255%, import 154%andGNP 471% running, and 34%fixed), but still, emissionincrease was highly reduced in 2000-2009, compared to 1990-2000. We may assume that this decrease was contributed by efficient use of energy, use of renewable energy, and use of natural gas as fuel type. In Figure 4, greenhouse gas emissions per sector to be used for the 2009 analysis are given. These values were prepared by TUİK (2011) for the “NationalGreenhouse GasEmissionInventory Report”. Electricity production sector (EL) is leading the table with a 93,3 Mt CO2e emission, and makes up 25% of the total emissions. Coal mining (CO) sector is in second place with 71,1 Mt CO2e emissionand makes up for 19% of the total emissions. Sectoral transportation (TR) on the other hand has an emission of 45,2 Mt CO2e. When we look at the top three sectors; electricity production, coal mining and transportation sectors produce 57% of total emissions. 2002 data indicate that, electricity production, coal mining and transportation sectors are again occupying the top three places in emissions. 174 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 4: 2009 and 2002* Secoral Emissions (Mt CO2e) 100 93.3 90 80 2009: 369,6 Mt CO2e 71.1 70 45.2 46.9 31.7 55.1 7.8 6.9 40 35.0 30 24.5 20 26.525.5 20 10 2002: 286,3 Mt CO2e 50 50 30 72.3 70 60 60 40 80 14.9 0 36.3 20.5 19.7 6.0 5.3 10 11.5 0 AG CO PG RP EL CE PA IS TR OE AG CO PG RP EL CE PA IS TR OE 2009 Sectoral Emissions (369,6 Mt Co2e) Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse Gas EmissionInventory Report data have been created and classified by the authors per sector. *:Emission values exclude Lulucf. Considering Turkey’s TUİK (2011) National Greenhouse Gas EmissionInventory Report,average greenhouse gas increase rates for the 1990-2009 period is 97.64%and annually 5.13%.With the help of 2002 and 2009 sectoral greenhouse gas distribution, calculated from “National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report” in Figure 4, we may be able to calculate sectoral greenhouse gas distributionfor 1990. If we apply the 5.13% increase for the 1990-2009 period to the calculated emissionvalues, we may acquire the sectoral and general greenhouse gas emissions for the period leading up to 2020, which is given in Table 4. Table 4: Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2e)* of Sectors per Year AG CO PG 175 RP EL CE PA IS TR OE Total 1990 16,0 36,0 3,9 3,5 47,2 13,4 12,9 7,5 22,9 23,7 187,0 1991 16,8 37,8 4,1 3,6 49,6 14,1 13,5 7,9 24,1 25,0 196,6 1992 17,7 39,7 4,3 3,8 52,1 14,8 14,2 8,3 25,2 26,2 206,3 1993 18,5 41,5 4,5 4,0 54,5 15,5 14,9 8,7 26,4 27,4 215,9 1994 19,3 43,4 4,7 4,2 56,9 16,2 15,5 9,1 27,6 28,6 225,5 1995 20,1 45,2 4,9 4,4 59,3 16,9 16,2 9,5 28,8 29,8 235,1 1996 21,0 47,1 5,1 4,5 61,8 17,5 16,9 9,8 29,9 31,1 244,7 1997 21,8 48,9 5,3 4,7 64,2 18,2 17,5 10,2 31,1 32,3 254,3 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1998 22,6 50,8 5,5 4,9 66,6 18,9 18,2 10,6 32,3 33,5 263,9 1999 23,4 52,6 5,7 5,1 69,1 19,6 18,8 11,0 33,5 34,7 273,5 2000 24,3 54,5 5,9 5,2 71,5 20,3 19,5 11,4 34,7 35,9 283,1 2001 25,1 56,3 6,1 5,4 73,9 21,0 20,2 11,8 35,8 37,2 292,8 2002 25,9 58,1 6,3 5,6 76,3 21,7 20,8 12,2 37,0 38,4 302,4 2003 26,7 60,0 6,5 5,8 78,8 22,4 21,5 12,5 38,2 39,6 312,0 2004 27,5 61,8 6,7 6,0 81,2 23,1 22,2 12,9 39,4 40,8 321,6 2005 28,4 63,7 6,9 6,1 83,6 23,7 22,8 13,3 40,5 42,0 331,2 2006 29,2 65,5 7,1 6,3 86,0 24,4 23,5 13,7 41,7 43,3 340,8 2007 30,0 67,4 7,4 6,5 88,5 25,1 24,1 14,1 42,9 44,5 350,4 2008 30,8 69,2 7,6 6,7 90,9 25,8 24,8 14,5 44,1 45,7 360,0 2009 31,7 71,1 7,8 6,9 93,3 26,5 25,5 14,9 45,2 46,9 369,7 2010 32,5 72,9 8,0 7,0 95,7 27,2 26,1 15,3 46,4 48,1 379,3 2011 33,3 74,8 8,2 7,2 98,2 27,9 26,8 15,6 47,6 49,4 388,9 2012 34,1 76,6 8,4 7,4 100,6 28,6 27,4 16,0 48,8 50,6 398,5 2013 35,0 78,5 8,6 7,6 103,0 29,3 28,1 16,4 49,9 51,8 408,1 2014 35,8 80,3 8,8 7,7 105,4 29,9 28,8 16,8 51,1 53,0 417,7 2015 36,6 82,2 9,0 7,9 107,9 30,6 29,4 17,2 52,3 54,2 427,3 2016 37,4 84,0 9,2 8,1 110,3 31,3 30,1 17,6 53,5 55,5 436,9 2017 38,3 85,9 9,4 8,3 112,7 32,0 30,8 18,0 54,6 56,7 446,5 2018 39,1 87,7 9,6 8,5 115,2 32,7 31,4 18,3 55,8 57,9 456,2 2019 39,9 89,6 9,8 8,6 117,6 33,4 32,1 18,7 57,0 59,1 465,8 2020 40,7 91,4 10,0 8,8 120,0 34,1 32,7 19,1 58,2 60,3 475,4 Source: TUİK (2011) From the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data, sectoral emissions have been calculated by the authors, and simulation has been applied.*: Emission values exclude Lulucf. 176 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo As Table 4 indicates, 2009 emission rate was 369,7 Mt CO2e, and according to the 1990-2009 increase scenario of 5.13% (As of 2012, the latest emissionwas given for 2009), this emission rate is anticipated to become 475,4 Mt CO2e in 2020. This is much lower than 604 Mt CO2e, foreseen by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (Ministry of Forestry and Hydraulic Works) by using the MAED/ENPEP model, however, it is in accordance with the 421 Mt CO2e value, foreseen by the European Commission using PRIMES model. Considering that the MAED/ENPEP model does not reflect the energy assumptions reality and that the model results are different than the actual values, it would be more realistic to use European Commission’s PRIMES model. Figure 5: Sektoral and General Emission Forecasts* for the 1990-2009 Period, According to 5.13%EmissionIncrease (Mt CO2e) 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 150.0 Source: TUİK (2011) National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data have been consolidated by the authors. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf. The increase in greenhouse gas is slower in 2000-2009 when compared to the 1990-2000 period. In 2000-2009 period, greenhouse gasincrease rate was 24,45%, while annual increase rate was 2,71%’dir. If we were to estimate 2020 emissions based on annual increase rates of 2,71%, we reach the findings given in Table 7.3. As Table 5 indicates, 2009 emission rate was 369,7 Mt CO2e, and by using the 2000-2009 period’s 2.71% increase scenario, this emission value would reach 458,4 Mt CO2e by 2020. Table 5: Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2e)* of Sectors per Year AG CO PG RP EL 177 CE PA IS TR OE Toplam 2000 25,4 57,1 6,2 5,5 75,0 21,3 20,5 11,9 36,3 37,7 297,0 2001 26,1 58,7 6,4 5,7 77,0 21,9 21,0 12,3 37,3 38,7 305,1 2002 26,8 60,2 6,6 5,8 79,1 22,4 21,6 12,6 38,3 39,7 313,2 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2003 27,5 61,8 6,7 6,0 81,1 23,0 22,1 12,9 39,3 40,8 321,2 2004 28,2 63,3 6,9 6,1 83,1 23,6 22,7 13,2 40,3 41,8 329,3 2005 28,9 64,9 7,1 6,3 85,2 24,2 23,2 13,6 41,3 42,8 337,4 2006 29,6 66,4 7,2 6,4 87,2 24,8 23,8 13,9 42,3 43,8 345,4 2007 30,3 68,0 7,4 6,6 89,2 25,3 24,4 14,2 43,3 44,9 353,5 2008 31,0 69,5 7,6 6,7 91,3 25,9 24,9 14,5 44,2 45,9 361,6 2009 31,7 71,1 7,8 6,9 93,3 26,5 25,5 14,9 45,2 46,9 369,7 2010 32,4 72,6 7,9 7,0 95,4 27,1 26,0 15,2 46,2 47,9 377,7 2011 33,0 74,2 8,1 7,1 97,4 27,7 26,6 15,5 47,2 49,0 385,8 2012 33,7 75,7 8,3 7,3 99,4 28,2 27,1 15,8 48,2 50,0 393,9 2013 34,4 77,3 8,4 7,4 101,5 28,8 27,7 16,2 49,2 51,0 401,9 2014 35,1 78,8 8,6 7,6 103,5 29,4 28,2 16,5 50,2 52,0 410,0 2015 35,8 80,4 8,8 7,7 105,5 30,0 28,8 16,8 51,2 53,1 418,1 2016 36,5 82,0 8,9 7,9 107,6 30,5 29,4 17,1 52,2 54,1 426,2 2017 37,2 83,5 9,1 8,0 109,6 31,1 29,9 17,5 53,1 55,1 434,2 2018 37,9 85,1 9,3 8,2 111,7 31,7 30,5 17,8 54,1 56,1 442,3 2019 38,6 86,6 9,4 8,3 113,7 32,3 31,0 18,1 55,1 57,2 450,4 2020 39,3 88,2 9,6 8,5 115,7 32,9 31,6 18,4 56,1 58,2 458,4 Source: TUİK (2011) From the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data, sectoral emissions have been calculated by the authors, and simulation has been applied.*: Emission values exclude Lulucf. Figure 6: Emission Forecasts for the 1990-2009 Period According to 5.13% EmissionIncrease * (Mt CO2e) 178 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 250.0 Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse Gas EmissionInventory Report data have been consolidated by the authors. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf. 6. Carbon Emission Projections In this part of the study, greenhouse gasemission projections would be made by mathematical models. By using the 1990-2009 period greenhouse gas amounts published by TUİK, linear, parabolic, cubic andexponential forecasts have been made and given in Table6. It is clearly seen that different methods produce different emissionvalues. Table 6: Greenhouse GasEmission Projections (Mt CO2e)* Carbon Emission Projections Year Linear Model Parabolic Model Exponential Model 2010 382,65 386,54 398,16 2011 392,32 397,30 412,38 2012 401,98 408,17 427,11 2013 411,64 419,14 442,37 2014 421,31 430,20 458,17 2015 430,97 441,37 474,54 2016 440,63 452,64 491,49 2017 450,29 464,00 509,05 2018 459,96 475,47 527,24 2019 469,62 487,04 546,07 2020 479,28 498,71 565,58 2021 488,95 510,48 585,78 179 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2022 498,61 522,34 606,71 2023 508,27 534,31 628,38 2024 517,94 546,38 650,83 2025 527,60 558,55 674,08 2026 537,26 570,82 698,16 2027 546,93 583,19 723,10 2028 556,59 595,66 748,93 2029 566,25 608,23 775,69 2030 575,92 620,90 803,40 Estimating Equations: LinearEstimating Equation: y = 9,6632x + 179,73 R² = 0,96 ParabolicEstimating Equation: y = 0,0501x2 + 8,612x + 183,59 R² = 0,96 CubicEstimating Equation: y = 0,0238x3 - 0,6996x2 + 15,064x + 170,94 R² = 0,96 ExponentialEstimating Equation: y = 190,52e0,0351x R² = 0,96 Not:Mathematica and Excel Programs have been used for the estimations made by 1990-2009 data. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf. As Table 6 indicates, according to the results reached by the help of linearequation; Turkey’s greenhouse gas emission would be 430MtCO2e in 2015, 479 MtCO2e in 2020 and575 MtCO2e in2030. According to the results reached by the help of parabolicequation; Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be 441MtCO2e in 2015, 498 MtCO2e in 2020 and620 MtCO2e in 2030. And according to the findings reached by the help of exponential equation; Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be474MtCO2e in 2020, 565MtCO2e in 2015 and 803 MtCO2e in 2030. The acquired findings are much less than the 604 Mt CO2e value forecast by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (Ministry of Forestry and Hydraulic Works) by using the MAED/ENPEP model, however, they are in accordance with the 421 Mt CO2e value, foreseen by the European Commission using PRIMES model. Considering that the MAED/ENPEP model does not reflect the energy assumptions reality and that the model results are different than the actual values, it would be more realistic to use European Commission’s PRIMES model. 7. Result and Discussion 180 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo There is no emission reduction commitment for the first Kyoto period covering the 1998-2012 period for Turkey, who is on the full membership process for European Union. However, Turkey is expected to be committed for the Post-Kyoto period covering post-2012. Considering that emission reductions would have economic costs, anticipation of emission trend, the level of commitment and choosing the best policy for emission reduction would be highly important for the decision makers. In our study, the anticipated emission trend for Turkeyhas been given by the help of different mathematical models. According to the findings reached by the help of linear equation; Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be, 430MtCO2e in 2015, 479 MtCO2e in 2020 and 575 MtCO2e in 2030. This result is in line with the 421 Mt CO2e value for 2020, forecasted by the European Commission using the PRIMES model. Even though different methods produce different results, it is thought that the results acquired by the linear equation are more consistent. REFERENCES Church, J. A., and N. J. White, (2006) “A 20th Century Acceleration in Global Sea-Level Rise”. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01602, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024826. EEA (2006) “Environmental Statement”, European Environment Agency Report No 8/2006, Copenhagen, Denmark. EEA (2007) “Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe 2007” European Environment Agency Report, October 2007, Denmark, (Forthcoming) EEA (2011) “Greenhause Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe 2011: The Fourth Report”, European Environment Agency, Report Nu: 4, 2011. Holgate, S. J., and P. L. Woodworth, (2004) Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07305, doi:10.1029/2004GL019626. IPCC (2007) “Climate change 2007: Mitigation.”, Contribution of Working group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O. R. Davidson, P. R. Bosch, R. Dave, L. A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC (2007a) “The Physical Science Basis”, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork. IPCC (2007b) “Climate Change 2007: Mitigation”, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork. Keeling, C. D. ve Whorf, T. P. (2005) “Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppmv) Derived From in Situ Air Samples Collected at Mauna Loa Observatory”, Hawaii. Leuliette, E. W., R. S. Nerem, and G. T. Mitchum, 2004: Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason Altimeter Data to Construct A Continuous Record of Mean Sea Level Change. Mar. Geodesy, 27(1– 2), 79–94 Madra, Ö. ve Şahin, Ü. (2007) “Küresel Isınma ve İklim Krizi”, İdil Yayıncılık, İstanbul, 2007. Özçağ, M. (2011) “İnsan Kaynaklı İklim Değişikliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz”, Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bil. Ens. Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Aydın, s.12. www.tuik.gov.tr http://www.licor.com/env/newsline/tag/keeling-curve/, Access: 13.03.201 181 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1242 Title A name given to the resource Forecasting Carbon Emission For Turkey: Time Series Analysis Author Author Mehmet , Mercan Abstract A summary of the resource. Within the context of sustainable development objectives, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that cause climate change was first discussed and officially negotiated at the 1992 Rio Conference, which particularly emphasised developed countries to take serious measures. Then, it was followed by the Kyoto Protocol, which specified national ghg emission reduction targets for developed countries. With Kyoto Protocol, it was decided for these countries to reduce global emissions by 5% below 1990 levels compared to 2008-2012 emission levels. Turkey became a party to the Kyoto Protocol in 2009, yet due to their special circumstances they did not take any emission reduction commitments.. Negotiations on Post-2012 emission reduction obligations are still in progress under the UNFCCC umbrella and it is expected to have emission reduction targets not only by developed countries but also by developing ones. In this regard, it is important for Turkey to estimate its future ghg emissions, if they have to take a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) for their strategy. There are various ghg emission estimations for 2020 and the results indicate different emission levels.Objective of this study is to estimate ghg emission levels for Turkey for 2020 and afterwards by using time series and regression analysis. Then, appropriate policy implications are discussed with the result of these findings. Keywords : Carbon Emissions, Time Series Analysis, climate change policy,emission projections Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f6dd59f253dafa4c04cd7bf9f6c7dbc4.pdf 1e69996484c112d272008ec923d3e31a PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Wziatek-Kubiak, A. (2003) “Critical Synthesis, Review of the Main Findings, Methodologies and Current Thought on Competitiveness of Accession Countries.Mapping of Competence”, Center for Socail and Economic Research, http://www.case.com.pl, (30.03.2012). Yapraklı, S. (2011) “Makroeconomic Factors Affecting International Competitiveness : A Practice on Turkish Production Industry”, Selçuk University İİBF. Social ve Economic Researces Magazine, Vol.16, Num..22., pages.-373-403. Kazgan, G (1988), Openness Growth in Economy, 2. Press, Altın Kitaplar, İstanbul. Çoban, O. and Çoban, S. (2004) “The Measurement of Competitiveness of Turkey by Globalization İndex: A Comparison with EU Countries, 1970-2001”, Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas University Social Sciences Magazine, 10,163-174. The Effect Of Financial Development On Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Mehmet Mercan1, İsmet Göçer2, Osman Peker2, Şahin Bulut2 1Hakkari University, FEAS, Department of Economy, 2 Adnan Menderes University, FEAS, Department of Economy E –mials: mercan48@gmail.com,ismetgocer@gmail.com, ottopeker@gmail.com, sbulut@adu.edu.tr Abstract In this study, the effect of financial development on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. Foreign direct investments and trade openness which were thought to have effects on the growth were included in the analysis.According to empirical evidence derived from the study made with panel data analysis it was found that the effect of financial development on economic growth was positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations.The evidence thateven foreign direct investments and openness contributed to the growth positively was also found. Keywords:Financial Development, Economic Growth, BRIC-T, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness. Jel Codes: E49, F19, G29 1.INTRODUCTION An increase in financial instruments and becoming of these instruments more commonly available in a country is defined as a financial development.In other words, financial growth 137 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo means the development of financial markets (Erim,2005). Financial growth is the change of financial system in terms of size and structure. However, financial deepening expresses the share of money supply in national income and it becomes a measure for financial growth and financial instrument variety(Saltoğlu,1998). Financial growth can be expressed as a channel that transforms the savings to the investment in financial changing process. In its literature, great contributions of the financial markets and instituations to the economic growth process of the countries in many ways are emphasized and this constitutes the subjects of many ampirical studies.In the studies it is generally stated that a financial system which performs its financial functions would contribute to the economic growth in long term.18Smoothly running financial markets in economy supports the capital accumulation, helps the small funds to direct to the big investments, encourages the disseminations of new technologies and thus by providing the effective usage of the sources , it supports the economic productivity and growth(Aslan and Küçükaksoy,2006) Economic growth of that country will be high, if financial instituations provide the credit demands of the reel sector.In the early studies about financial and economic growth (Gurley and Shaw,1955,1967; Gerschenkron, 1962; Goldsmith, 1969), we observe that the effect of financial intermediation function on economic growth process is uttered although the theoric thoughts can not be expressed as a whole. Though Gurley and Shaw make a great contribution to the literature by expressing the relationship between financial sector and economic growth for the first time, they do not make any comment about whether there is a causality relationship between financial development and economic growth or not or if there is , what the direction of this relationship is.Patrick (1966) for the first time dealed the relationship between financial sector and economic growth by conceptualizing.He expressed that the causality between financial sector and economic growth could be in two different forms. The writer explained this relationship by using the demand-following and supply-leading concepts. In demand-following case he expresses the financial sector growth to supply the demand occuring as a result of the developments in reel sector and in supply-leading he explains that the growth of financial sector institutionally would stimulate the economic growth. It is very difficult to say that there is an agreement in many studies performed in order to determine the direction of the causality between financial sector and economic growth. In the ampirical analysis between financial development and economic growth we can see that there are studies expressing the causality relationship is both one-sided and two-sided.19Also in some studies it is stated that the relationship between financial development and economic growth variables is weak,even financial growth may have a decreasing role in economic growth process(Singh, 1997; Deidda, 2006). Shortly called as BRIC firstly in the early 2000s Brazil,Russia,India and China that have common characters like wide area, big population and rapid economic growth are accepted as the fastest growing “emerging market” in world economy(O’Neill, 2001:1-16). Total area of these countries contains more than %25 of the world area and total population of them 18 Vide infra; King and Levine, 1993a, 1993b;Arestis and Demetriades, 1997; La Porta vd., 1997; Thiel, 2001; Levine, 2004; Eschenbach, 2004; Lawrence, 2006; Shan and Jianhong, 2006; Ang, 2007. 19 Vide infra; Hermes, 1994; Arestis and Demetriades, 1997; Thiel, 2001; Eschenbach, 2004; Lawrence, 2006; Shan and Jianhong, 2006; Ang, 2007 138 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo contains more than %40 of the world population. It is argued that BRIC group would take G7 group’s place and get the leadership of the world economy when the economic indicators are considered(Frank and Frank, 2010:46-54).Goldman Sachs who has studies about BRIC countries estimates that in 2050 China will be the greatest economy in the world,India will be the third,Brazil will be the fourth and Russia will be the sixth biggest economy. Based on these indicators, with the help of panel data analysis by using the annual data of 1989 and 2010 in our study the effect of financial development on economic growth is searched for BRIC countries and Türkiye that is the most devoloping country than after China and has a developing economy.In second section of the study, the literature ranking about empirical studies is presented as a table.In the following sectionsthe data set and method used in the analysis are introduced and evidences are given. In final section a general evaluation is conducted. 2. Literature Review The first studies searching the relationship between financial development and economic growth were conducted by Bagehot (1873) and Schumpeter (1912). In his study Schumpeter (1912) indicated that a smoothly running economy would support the investors economically by providing the finance of technological innovations that was necessary for producing the new products the most effectively and productively. Meanwhile,he expressed that the growth of financial sector especially the growth of banking sector was necassary for economic growth.In literature followingSchumpeter (1912) many theorical and empirical studies were performed.The studies searching the relationship between the financial development and economic growth, country group, the used methods and results were indicated in Table .As we can observe from the Table 1 the view that financial development effects the economic growth positively was supported although there was no agreement between financial development and economic growth in terms of causality in the studies generally. Table 1: The Abstract of Some Theoric and Empirical Studies Searching the Relationship betweenfinancial and economic growth Writers Sampling and Econometric Method Gurley and Theoricstudy Shaw (19551967) Goldsmith (1969) Benecivenga and Smith (1991) Atje and Jovanovic 139 development Basic Evidences They indicated the necessity of the realtionship between financial development and economic growth.They suggest that the services provided by the developed financial structure facilitate the relationship between saving owners and investors. An International study-35 He found a positive relationship between financial system size countries between the periods and economic growth. 1860-1963 Theoric study He estimated that the development of financial mediation in certain conditions would effect the growth rate. An International study-94 They concluded that stock markets and countries betweenthe periods bank credits effect the growth positively. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (1993) 1960-1985 King ve Levine An International study– 80 They said that all indicators of financial (1993) countries between the periods development were highly related with 1960-1980 economic growth rates, physical capital accumulation and economic productivity increase. Obstfeld (1994) Theoric study Liquid stock markets were positively related with economic growth,yet the integration with international capiatl markets was not related with the saving rates of theprivate lenders. Benecivenga vd. Teorik çalışma Hisse senedi piyasası likiditesi, büyüme (1995) oranları, verimlilik artışları ve sermaye birikimi arasında güçlü pozitif bağlantı bulunmaktadır. Levine and A horizontal section analysis There is a statistically positive meaningful Zervos using 3 growth rates as relationship between financial deepening (1996) dependent variant containing indicators and growth as the increase of the 77 countries output, the investment andthe productivity in three directions. Jayaratne and Panel data analysis including They found that the quality increase in Strahan (1996) 50 USA states (1972-92) banking debths was related with a more rapid growth. Levine (1997) A horizontal section analysis They indicated that financial development effected the economic growth via capital accumulation and technological innovation. Rousseau and Time series analysis for 5 They estimated the financial growth by a Wachtel (1998) industrialized countries very tiny feedback from the production to (USA, Canada, England, the mediation. Sweden, Norway) Rajan and Time series analysis on the Financial development has a great effect Zingales base of firm and industry for on economic growth.A developed financial (1998) a wide country group. (1980- structure provides a competetive advantage 1990) against the industries depended on external financing. Neusser and Production industries of Financial development gives priority to the Kugler (1998) OECD countries –time series growth and it is co-integrated with the total analysis. factor productivity of production industry and gross rate national product of pruduction sector. Levine and An international analysis Both liquid stock markets and developed Zervos (1976-93) banking sector effect the growth, the (1998) capital accumulation and the increase in productivity positively. Demirgüç-Kunt An international analysis for Active stock market and a well-developed and 30 developed and developing legal system facilitate the growth of the Maksimoviç(19 countries. firms. 98) 140 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Levine and Zervos (1998) Levine, Loayza and Beck (2000) Beck, Levine and Loayza (2000) Kang and Sawada (2000) Henry (2000) Shan vd. (2001) Arestis, Demetriades and Luinted (2001) Shan and Morris (2002) Developed Economies They got the results supporting the Horizontal section regression hypothesis that suggests financial development leads the economic growth. Horizontal section study and Between financial development and long dinamic panel techniques term growth there is a strong positive relationship which is not derived from synchronicity. Horizontal section study, Financial intermadiators have a positive instrumantal variable and great effect on the growth of total procedure, dinamic panel factor productivity supporting the gross techniques rate national product growth. Time series data for 20 Financial development and trade countries liberalizition accelerate the economic Inner Growth Model growth by increasing the marginal benefits of human capital investments. It was found that the liberalization in stock markets 11 developing countries increased the investments in many countries. Panel Data Analysis 9 OECD Countries and China He found two sided causality in 5 countries and Causality Test and VAR supply leading causality in 3 countries,but in 2 countries he found no relationship. Analysis 5 Developed Countries The development of the banks and capital Cointegration and Correction markets accelarates the economic Model Analysis growth,but in this process banks have a more effective role. 19 OECD Countries ve China They reached the results that financial development causes economic growth directly or indriectly. Causality Test Arestis vd. (2002) 6 Developing Countries Standard Econometric Techniques Al-Yousif 30 Developing Countries(2002) Ganger Causality and Panel Data Analysis Müslümov and OECD Sample (22 countries) Aras (2002) Granger Causality and Panel Data Bhattacharya India Sample and Causality Analysis Sivasubramania n (2003) Calderon ve Liu 109 Developed and (2003) Developing Countries Fink vd. (2003) 141 13 Developed Countries Cointegration and Correction Model Analysis The effect of financial liberalization on financial development is ambigious. It was found that there was a two sided causality relationship between financial development and economic growth. It was obtained a one sided relationship from the development of capital market to economic growth. They reached the result that financial development causes economic growth. They reached the result that financial development effects the economic growth via capital accumulation and productivity. They reached the evidences supporting the “demand-following”and “supply-leading” approaches in Italy, Japan and Finland; “supplyleading”in USA, Germany, Austria, England, Switzerlandand weakly “supply-demanding” in Holland and Spain. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo He expressed that financial system had a signifiacnt role in the growth of African countries. They emphasized the importance of financial development in the economic growth process. Ghirmay (2004) 13 Africancountries Beck and Levine (2004) Dritsakis and Adamopoulos (2004) 40 countries Panel Data Analysis Greece Sample Causality Based on Error Correction Model Thangavelu vd. (2004) Australia Sample VAR Methodology Rioja and Valev (2004) 10 Countries Panel Data Analysis Christopoulos and Tsionas (2004) Chang and Caudill (2005) 10 Developing Countries Panel Cointegraiton Analysis Taiwan Sample VAR Methodology They found a causality from financial development to the economic growth,thus the “supply-leading” hypothesis was confirmed. Caporale vd. (2005) 5 Southeastern Asian Countries Cointegration Granger Causality 99 Countries Panel Data Analysis 71 Countries It was found that capital market increased the economic growth by increasing the investment activity. Ndikumana (2005) McCaig and Stengos (2005) Rousseau ve Vuthipadadorn (2005) 10 Asian Countries Cointegration Granger Causality Shan and Jianhong (2006) Ang and McKibbin (2007) Artan (2007) Chine Sample VAR Methodology Shahbaz vd. (2008) 142 Malaysia Sample Cointegration Granger Causality 79 Countries Sample Panel Data Analysis Pakistan Sample Cointegration Granger Causality They reached the result that there was a causality relationship between financial development and economic growth.They could not find any relationship between the growth and the openness of the economy. They found a causality from economic growth to the development of financial intermediaries,but they could not reach an evidence that the development of financial markets would cause economic growth. They got the evidence that economic growth increased by increasing the productivity in the countries that the financial development was high and by accelerating the capital accumulation in the countries that financial development was low. They found the evidence that economic growth was the cause of financial development. He presented the results that the development of financial intermediation increased the investments. They identified that the development of financial intermediation affected the growth strongly and positively. They reached the results that financial development stimulated the investments and there was a onesided realationship (supply-leading) from financial development to the investments in many countries. They found that there was a two sided causality relationship between financial development and economic growth. They identified that growth increased the financial deepening.Meanwhile the relationship was supply-leading. In underdeveloped countries financial development affects the growth negatively. He showed that there was a stronge and a two sided causality relationship between the development in stock markets and �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo economic growth. Abu-Bader and Middle East and North Abu-Qarn African Countries (2008) VAR Methodology-Causality Enisan and Olufisayo (2009) 7African Countries ARDL Method In analysis results it was identified a demandfollowing causality suggesting the financial development increased the economic growth.However, for Israel it was identified a supply-leading causality from economic growth to financial development. They concluded that the development in stock market in Egypt and South Africa increased the economic growth and the direction for the causality was from the development in stock market to the economic growth. Kar vd. (2011) MENA Countries(1980- They infered that it was impossible to 2007) make a certain comment about the Panel Granger Causality Test causality between financial development and economic growth. Hassan, Sanchez 168 Countries Classified It was discovered that there was a positive Yu (2011) According to Income Level relationship between financial Panel Data Analysis development and economic growth in developing countries.For many country samples a two sided causality was obtained for short term period. Source: Study of the writers and Kularatne, 2001: 10-11. There are also studies searching the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey sample. In ampirical studies on Turkey it can be said that there is no consensus about the causality relationship between financial development and economic growth. Table 2: The Abstract of Some Theoric and Ampirical Studies Searching the Financial Development and Economic Growth Relationship on the Scale of Turkey Kar and Pentecost (2000) Gökdeniz vd. (2003) Turkey Sample Cointegration Analysis Error Correction Model In the study they found that the direction of the financial development and economic growth relationship could change depending on the selected financial development indicator. Turkey Sample1989-2002) The evidence that financial markets Regression Analysis affected the economic growth could not be found. Atamtürk (2004) Turkey Sample(1975-2003) He found the evidence of a one-sided Granger Causality causality from financial development to economic growth.(Supply-leading hypothesis was confirmed.) Onur (2005) Turkey Sample After financial liberalization in Turkish Granger Causality economy it was found out that financial (Autoregressive Model) liberalization, financial development and openness was not the cause of Gross Domestic Product,but Gross Domestic Pruduct was the cause of financial liberalization, financial development and openness. They found out that economic growth was due to Aslan and Turkey Sample financial development.In other words it supported Küçükaksoy (1970-2004) the economic growth. (2006) Granger Causality 143 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Aslan and Korap (2006) Acaravcı vd. (2007) Kandır vd. (2007) Afşar (2007) Altunç (2008) Ağır vd. (2009) Test Turkey Sample (1986-2004) Cointegration AnalysisGranger Causality Test Turkey Sample (1986-2006) Cointegration Analysis Turkey Sample (1988-2004) Cointegration Analysis Error Correction Model Theoric Study-Literature Scan Turkey Sample (1970-2006) Cointegration Analysis Error Correction Model Turkey Sample Literature Scan They expressed that the direction of the causality between financial development and economic growth changedaccording to the financial development indicator. They found out that in Turkey there was a onesided causality from financial development to economic growth. He found out that there was a demand-following relationship between financial development and economic growth.In other words it was observed that economic growth increased the financial development in Turkey. He found out the evidence that there was a strong relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey but the direction of the causality was ambiguous. He expressed that the direction of the causality between financial development and economic growth changed according to the financial development indicator. He expressed that the relationship between financial development and economic growth could be simultaneous. Altıntaş and Turkey Sample They found out that financial development Ayrıçay (2010) (1987-2007) was the most effective factor on the growth ARDL(Autoregressive and also the effect of the rate was Distributed Lag Mode)Bound relatively less.They infered that the TestApproach avaibility of the funds rather than their costs could contribute to increase the reel incomein developing countries like Turkey. They observed that there was a demand-following Keskin and Turkey Sample relationship between financial development and Karşıyakalı (1987-2007) economic growth,thus financial development was (2010) Engle-Granger Method and due to economic growth in Turkey. Causality Analysis Öztürk vd. 8 Developing Countries They found out that there was a one-sided (2011) andTurkey Sample (1992- causality from financial development to 2009) economic growth.(Demand-following Panel Causality Test hypothesis was confirmed.) Ekonomik büyümeden finansal gelişmeye doğru tek Özcan and Arı Turkey Sample yönlü bir nedenselliğin varlığı bulgusunu elde (2011) (1998-2009) etmişlerdir. (Talep izleyici hipotez doğrulanmıştır) VAR Analysis They found out that although there was a strong İnce (2011) Turkey Sample relationship between economic growth and (1980-2010) financial development in a long term period, there Cointegration Analysis was a relationship in a short term period. Granger Causality Analysis 144 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3. Financial Development Indicators In financial development literature, the proportion of financial sector to Gross Domestic Product is defined as financial depth (Feldman and Gang, 1990; Outreville, 1999). The indicators predicating the size of loan and currency are the variables that are used as a measure of financial development.In literature in limited and unlimited sense, the proportion of curruncy supply to GDP (M1/GDP, M2/GDP, M2Y/GDP), private sector loans/GDP, private sector credits of the banks/GDP, market value of the firms in Stock Exchange Market/GDP,effective money/GDP are usedas the indicator of financial development and financial depth.20“ Loans for the private sector” variable that has been used recently as an alternative indicator for financial intermediation is not preferred because the indicators based on the size of currency (MI, M2,M2Y) in some studies do not represent the financial development. (Khan and Senhadji, 2000). The most fundamental of these indicators is the indicators giving the proportion of limited and unlimited defined currency supply/GDP.It is indicated that M1/GDP proportion is not in strong relation with the growth,but M2/GDP proportion indicates the measure of the size of the whole sector in financial intermediation and it is in strong relation with the change in per cepita real GDP (King and Levine, 1993). 4. AMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 4.1. Data Set and Model In this study the effect of financial development on eceonomic growth was searched by using the data between 1989-2010 period in the sample of 5 developing countries which have an important place in world economy (Brazil, Russia, India, China ve Turkey-BRIC-T).In the analysis, besides the financial development, foreign direct investments and trade openness which were thought to affect the growth was included to the model.From the variables used in the analysisy;represents the growth rate (GDP), fd;represents Financial Development (M2/GDP), fdi;represents Foreign Direct Investments (FDI/GDP) ve open;represents trade openness (X+M/GDP).The data was obtained from the web pages of IMF and the World Bank(www.imf.org, www.worldbank.org). For analysis Stata 11 and Eviews 5.1. econometric analysis programmes were used and for model choise and correction tests codes21 were used. 4.2. Method Panal data analysis was used to search the data from different countries together. Panel data analysis (Baltagi, 2001; Gujarati, 1999 and Tarı, 2010): 20 Vide infra; Khan and Qayyum, 2007; s. 4; Outreville, 1999, Darrat, 1999, Gupta, 1984; King and Levine, 1993; Demetriades and Hussein, 1996, Halıcıoğlu, 2007 21 For codes Thanks to Prof. Dr. Haluk Erlat, Asst.Prof. Bülent Güloğlu and Asst.Prof. Şaban Nazlıoğlu . 145 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo This model was based on decomposing the error term ( ) to its components in terms of its individual and time effects. In the modeliindicates the countries, tindicates the time. When the error term was decomposed: was obtained. This final equation is called error component model. Here indicates the individual effects, indicates the time effects.It is supposed (Independent Identically Distributed), in other words the avarage of error terms is zero, its variant is stable and it is distributed normally(having white noise process). In the Panel data analysis the stability of the series are searched through panel unit root tests firtsly.Then the type of individual and time effects should be identified. An indogeneity test should be conducted among the variables when there is a variable which is considered to have a close relation with the given variable,therefore it is suspected for its indogeneity. After that a model should be estimated and the problems of changing variant and autocorrelation in the model should be tested. 4.3.Panel Unit Root Analysis It is accepted that the panel unit root tests which regard the information about both time and horizontal section dimension of the dataare statistically stronger than the time series unit root tests which regard the information only about the time dimension (Im, Pesaran ve Shin,1997; Maddala ve Wu, 1999; Taylor ve Sarno, 1998; Levin, Lin ve Chu, 2002; Hadri, 2000; Pesaran, 2006; Beyaert and Camacho, 2008).Because the variability in the data increases when the horizontal section dimension is included to the analysis. The first problem in panel unit root test is whether the horizontal sections building the panel are independent or not.At that point panel unit root tests are classified as the first generation and the second generation.The first generation tests are also classified as homogeneous and heterogeneous.While Levin, Lin and Chu (2002), Breitung (2000) and Hadri (2000) are based on homogeneous model hypothesis, Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) are based on heterogeneous model hypothesis. On the other hand, the main second generation unit root tests are MADF (Taylor and Sarno, 1998), SURADF (Breuer, Mcknown and Wallace, 2002), Bai and Ng (2004) and CADF (Pesaran, 2006). Since the countries included in the analysis are not homogeneous, Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003)will use (IPS) testin this study. This test: is based on the model above. Here ; is error correction term and when <1 happens, we understand that the serie is trend stable ,on the other hand when 1 happens, it has unit root,thus it is not stable. IPS test enables the sto differentiate for the horizontal section units,in other words heterogeneous panel structure.Test hypotheses: H0: 146 for all the horizontal section units,so the serie is not stable. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo H1: for at least one horizontal section unit,so the serie is stable. When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05, H0is rejected and it is decided that the serie is stable. IPS panel unit root test results are on Table 4. Table4:IPS Panel Unit Root Test Results Level Possibility First Possibility Variant Value Value Difference Value y -0,74 0,77 -2,64 0,00 m2 -0,21 0,41 -4,60 0,00 fdi -1,04 0,14 -3,29 0,00 open 3,66 0,99 -3,79 0.00 Note:In Panel unit root test Schwarz criterionis used and delay length is regarded as 1. When we study on the results on Table4, it is observed that all series are not stable in level value,but the series become stable when first differences of the series are taken.In other words,in the studied period it is found out that macroeconomic variables are not stable and the shock effects on these variables do not disappear after a while. 4.4. Breush- Pagan Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Test In this stage of the analysis, F test was performed in order to determine the type of time effect and individual effects( random or stable). Because the selected countries are in a certain economic group, it was anticipated that individual effects would be stable and also the time effects of financial development on the growth would be stable for the countries in the studied period. Whether the effects are really random or not can be determined by F test (Baltagi. 2001:15). F test is classified as F1 andF2 . F=F1+F2. andF2tests the time effects are stable. F1;tests the individual effects are stable In F1 test; H0: (No individual effects ) hypothesis is tested throughF1 statistics. F1 statistics is calculated by the formula below. (4) Here ; indicates the individual effects in the equation (4), N;indicates the horizontal section (country) number, T; indicates the time dimension, ; indicates the prediction for the error terms in the equation (3). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that individual effects are stable. In F2 test; H0: (No time effect) hypothesis is tested by F2 statistics. F2 statistics is calculated by the formula below. 147 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (5) Here ; indicates the individula effects in the equation(4), N; indicates the horizontal section (country) number, T; indicates the time dimension, ; indicates the predictions for the error terms in the equation (3). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that time effects are stable. In F=F1+F2 test; H0: (No individual and time effects) H1: or both of them (At least one or two of the effects are random). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that both of the effects are stable.In this case a prediction is made through the two-sided stable effect model.In Table5 there are F tests results. Table5: LM Tests Test Possibility Value Decision F1 0,004 Individual Effects are not Stable. F2 0,001 Time Effects are not Stable. F 0.001 Individual Effects and Time Effects are not Stable.. When we look the results in Table5, we can see thatindividual effects and time effects are stable.According to this result the prediction was made by the two-sided stable effect model. 4.5. Hausman Endogeneity Test In this stage of the study,whether there was a relationship between the individual effects and the explanatory variables or not was tested by Hausman method. Test hypotheses: H0: Cov( No endogeneity problem. H1: Cov( An endogeneity problem. Here ; indicates the individual effets in the equation (4),but indicates the exlanatory variables in the equation(3).When the possibility value of (Chi2=Kikare) obtained from the analysis is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that there is an endogeneity problem in the model.In this case random effects model is used.(Greene, 2003).However, when H0 is accepted,stable effects model is used.This prediction is effective , non- deviated and coherent.Hausman test is not an alternative forF test. But it works as function to check the decision by F test.Hausman test was conducted and χ2=14.62 veχ2 possibility value =0.404 was obtained and since this value was bigger than 0.05 , H0 hypothesis was accepted and it 148 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo was decided that there was no endogeneity problem in the model.In this case, it is necessary to do the analysis with the random effects model and this result supports the F test results. 4.6. Two-Sided Random Effects Model Predictions Panel data analysis is predicted by the two-sided random effect model and the result are on theTable6. Table6: Prediction Results Standard Variable Coefficient Error m2 1,332 0,949 fdi 0,792 0,439 open 4,315 2,596 Stable Term 2,310 1,101 Weighted R2=0,46Fist= 4,28 t-Statistics* 1,403 1,802 1,662 2,097 *: %10 level of significance was used. In stable effect models weighted statistics values are used. (Baltagi 2001: 21). When we look to the weighted test statistics in Table6,we can see that model is reliable as statistically.Also whether there are flexible variants and autocorrelation problems in the model are tested below. 4.7. Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Flexible Variant Test The most common test in order to test whether the error terms variant of the model changes from horizontal section to horizontal section is LM test. (Greene, 2003). Test hypotheses: H0: variant problem. H1: At least one Variant is stable. So there is no flexible Variant is not stable. So there is a flexible variant problem. The required test statistics to test these hypotheses are calculated through the following formula: (6) When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected.In other words it is decided that there is a flexible variant problem in the model. (Greene, 2003).Lm test was conducted and the possibility value was found 0.05.In this case H0 was rejected and it was decided that there was no flexible variant problem in the model. 4.8. Autocorrelation Test It is a test to study the relationship of the error terms of the model with its delayed values.The equation to measure this relationship is AR(1) process (Wooldridge, 2002): (7) 149 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Test hypotheses: H0: No autocorrelationproblem. H1: Am autocorrelationproblem. The required test statistics to test these hypotheses is calculated by the following formula: (8) HereSSRR; indicates the sum of the squares of the error terms of the limited model in the equation (3) SSRUR; indicates the sum of the squares of error terms of the unlimited model, g; indicatesthe limit number and df; indicates the independence grade. When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected.It is decided that there is an autocorrelation problem in the model. (Drukker, 2003). F test was conducted and the possibility value was found0,052.In this case and it was decided that there was no autocorrelation problem in the model. H0is accepted Since there is no flexible variant and autocorrelation problems in the model, the prediciton results are reliable and interpretable. As can be seen from the Table 6, financial development level affects the economic growth positively in line with the theoretical expectations.A % 1 increase in financial development level will increase the growth with the rate of % 1.33. The importance of the foreign direct investments especially in developing countries is often emphasized. As a result of the analysis the effect of a % 1 increase in the foreign direct investments on the growth will be % 0,79. Also trade openness variant used in the model was observed as the most effective variant in growth and it was found out that a %1 increase in openness level increased the growth with the rate of % 4,31.So this affected Turkey mostly in terms of the decrease in export depending on the decrease in external demand as a result of 2008 global economic crisis. (Somel, 2009). 5.CONCLUSION In this study the effect of financial development level on economic growth was searched via panel data analysis method in the sample of 5 developing countries which have an important place in the world economy(emerging markets, Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey-BRICT). the foreign direct investments and trade openness which were considered to affect the growth as well as financial development were included in the study where the annual data of 1989-2010 periods were used. At the panel unit root analysis result it was found out that series were not stable and the effects of shocks on the series did not disappear after a while and therefore it was determined that macroeconomic shocks affected the economy of the countries significantly. At the F tests result conducted to define the applicable panel data analysis method it was found out that individual and time effects were stable,for that reason an analysis with the twosided stable effect model was carried out.At the endogeneity test result it was found out that there was no endogeneity problem in the model. At the model conformation tests result it was foud out that there was no flexible variant and autocorrelation problems in the model. In this regard, the predicted model is reliable econometrically. According to the analysis results, it was determined that a % 1 increase in financial development level increased the growth at the rate of % 1,33 , a % 1 increase in foreign direct investments increased the growth at the rate of % 0,79.Also it was found out that trade 150 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo openness in the model was the most effective variant of the growth and the evidence that a % 1 increase in openness level increased the the growth at the rate of % 4,31.The expression that the global economic crisis in 2008 affected Turkey mostly in export dimension supports the analysis result. To sum up, in the study the effect of financial development, foreign direct investments and openness were searched and it was found that openness, financial development and foreign investments in turn affected the growth mostly. 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Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1321 Title A name given to the resource The Effect Of Financial Development On Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Author Author Mehmet Mercan, Mercan Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, the effect of financial development on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. Foreign direct investments and trade openness which were thought to have effects on the growth were included in the analysis.According to empirical evidence derived from the study made with panel data analysis it was found that the effect of financial development on economic growth was positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations.The evidence thateven foreign direct investments and openness contributed to the growth positively was also found. Keywords:Financial Development, Economic Growth, BRIC-T, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness. Jel Codes: E49, F19, G29 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/dbec47e91947a8ec39934c7c24716104.pdf 26b3a4f3bba82f9c44175632ebb5442f PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Effect Of Openness On Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Mehmet Mercan1,İsmet Göçer2, Şahin Bulut2, Metin Dam2 1Hakkari University, FEAS, Department of Economy, 2Adnan Menderes University, FEAS, Department of Economy, E-mails:mercan48@gmail.com,ismetgocer@gmail.com,sbulut@adu.edu.tr,mdam@adu.edu.tr Abstract In this study, the effect of openness on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. As openness variable, the proportion of external trade scale to GDP was used. According to empirical evidence derived from the study made with panel data analysis it was found that the effect of openness on economic growth was positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations. Keywords:Trade Openness, Economic Growth, BRIC Countries, Turkey. Jel Codes: E41, F43, G53 1.INTRODUCTION In our globalized world whether there is a relationship between trade openness and economic growth and openness is useful for the economy of the countries or not is still a matter in arguement. On one hand by trying to decrease the quotas and tariffs through GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade ),UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) which was established to liberalize the trade between countries and WTO (World Trade Organization) which was established instead of GATT in 1995 , increasing the openness of the countries to the world trade is aimed,on the other hand countries impose restrictions in the world trade by increasing the invisible barrier both to protect the domestic industries and to get income. With non-functioning of the national development thesis through the late and the collapse of the Eastern Block at the end of 1980’s it was again started to argue that openness was necessary for the national economies. In this context some economists expressed that having a certain development level was a precondition for openness policies to support the growth while operating the growth models based on openness and export. (Han and Kaya, 2006: 245; Sun and Parikh, 2001: 187-188).There are classical economists on the basis of the view that capital movement liberalization and trade openness will increase the economic growth and welfare after 1980’s.According to Classical and Neoclassical economists foreign trade makes important contributions to the development and the foreign trade is not only an effective productivity instrument but also it is the engine of the growth.Since the sources are limited in developing countries, the production on the scale of a high and sustainable growth can not be performed and new sources can be needed for production.With the openness, domestic markets will encounter with the competition, the domestic industries which can not compete with international prices will transfer their production factor to the other productive factors 159 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo and the welfare increase will happen as a result of more effective allocation of the sources.So for this type of economies it will be useful to make production under free trade.The precondition of providing growth under free trade is to apply a foreign trade policy which the national economies may combine with the international structure and to direct the allocation of the sources for pruduction to the sectors determined by the international demand.The natural aim of this type of economy is the industrilization and the availibility of the growth and it is suggested that the required dynamism for this will be realized by a structuring coming from external demand rather than domestic demand (Çelebi, 1991: 33). Against the liberal understanding of some classical economists , some economists defended the import substitution and drew attention to the importance of protectionism for industrialization. (Bahmani, Oskooee, Niromand, 1999, s.1).He suggested that free trade would not contribute to the growth among the countries that their development levels were different, but it would be useful among the countries that their development levels are the same.For instance,in England where the Industrial Revolution began first and in many of the other countries that were trying to reach England’s development level he expressed that free trade is on behalf of England and less developed countries were negatively affected for foreign trade relatively. (Chang, 2004: 20). Openness was modelled with the New Growth Theories suggested in 1980’s and it was started to be tested ampirically.Internal growth theoriessuppose (varsayar) that trade openness will stimulate the new technologies input. (Harrison, 1996).No matter how the economy is open, technology input increases,technology usage becomes wide and a more rapid growth realizes as compared to a less open economy. (Wu, 2004, s. 1).Internal growth models mentioning the importance of technological diffusion as the source of growth in long period generally suggest the thesis that the countries that are open to the foreign trade will reach higher stiff growth rates(Grossman ve Helpman, 1990: 796).So Romer(1986) and Lucas (1998) expressed that the size of the openness in a country was proportional with the ability of adaptation to the new and imported technologies and the ability of the arrangement in production. In the studies so far about the effect of the trade openness on economic growth it is difficult to say that there is a consensus.Besides Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988) in the context of internal growth theories, while Dollar (1992), Barro and Sala-i Martin (1995), Sachs andWarner (1995), Sinha and Sinha (1996), Edwards (1992, 1998) asserted that the effect of the trade openness on economic growth was positive,Levine and Renelt (1992), Harrison (1996), Rodrigez and Rodrik (1999) claimed the opposite of this idea. Shortly called as BRIC firstly in the early 2000s Brazil,Russia,India and China that have common characters like wide area, big population and rapid economic growth are accepted as the fastest growing “emerging market” in world economy (O’Neill, 2001:1-16). Total area of these countries contains more than %25 of the world area and total population of them contains more than %40 of the world population. It is argued that BRIC group would take G7 group’s place and get the leadership of the world economy when the economic indicators are considered(Frank and Frank, 2010:46-54).Goldman Sachs who has studies about BRIC countries estimates that in 2050 China will be the greatest economy in the world,India will be the third,Brazil will be the fourth and Russia will be the sixth biggest economy.Based on these indicators, in our study the effect of openness on economic growth will be searched for BRIC countries and Türkiye that is the most devoloping country than after China and has a developing economy. 160 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.Openness The openness rate of a country is generally calculated as the proportion of foreign trade volume to GDP besides the usage of the proportion of import to GDP (Romer (1993)) and the rate of export increase (Chow (1987), Kwan and Cotsomitis (1991))(Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand (1999), Ahmad and Anoruo (2000), Dar and Amirkhalkhali (2003)).Openness also indicates the dependence of the country on the foreign trade.The size of openness rates indicates the importance level of the foreign trade for economy of the country.With the trade openness of the country , an increase can be seen in foreign Exchange incomes and expenses at the export and import volume increase results. The share of foreign trade in GDP will increase with the foreign trade volume increase. In Figure 1 trade openness rates of BRIC-T countries are presented. Figure 1. BRIC-T Countries Trade Openness Rates Source:It was formed by the writers using the World Bank data As can be followed from Figure 1, in all BRIC-T countries called as emerging markets since 1990’s we see a stiff openness rates and the share of foreign trade increases. It has been observed that openness rate is about 0,5 in recent years,so foreign trade volumes of the countries have reached to nearly half of their GDP.Also in Figure 2the growth rate ofBRIC-T countries are presented. 161 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure2. BRIC-T Countries Growth Rates Source:It was formed by the writers using the World Bank data As can be followed from Figure 2, we see that the growth rates of the related countries are closs to each other and the countries were nagatively affected from the global economic crisis in 2008 and the Asia crisis in 1997.The striking point in Figure 2 is China and India’s positive growth throughout the whole periods.Also we see that Russia and Turkey are the most affected countries from the global crisis in 2008.In Table 1 economic size of BRIC-T countries are presented. Table 1.Economic Sizes of the Selected Countries(Billion $) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BRA 645 554 504 552 664 882 1.089 1.366 1.653 1.594 2.088 CHN 1.198 1.325 1.454 1.641 1.932 2.257 2.713 3.494 4.522 4.991 5.927 IND 460 478 507 599 722 834 951 1.242 1.216 1.377 1.727 RUS 260 307 345 430 591 764 990 1.300 1.661 1.222 1.480 TUR BRIC-T WORLD 267 2.830 32.240 196 2.859 32.046 233 3.043 33.305 303 3.526 37.466 392 4.300 42.229 483 5.220 45.658 531 6.274 49.506 647 8.049 55.849 730 9.782 61.305 615 9.800 58.088 734 11.956 63.124 OECD 26.162 25.917 27.085 30.422 33.873 35.749 37.744 41.346 43.816 41.036 42.809 AB 8.477 8.579 9.362 11.409 13.172 13.749 14.665 16.957 18.252 16.310 16.223 Source:It was formed by the writers using the World Bank data As can be followed from Table 1, the GDP of the studied 5 countries in 2010 is totally 11,956 Billion$. This value corresponds to the % 71 of European Unity GDP, % 28 of OECD countries GDP and % 19 of world countries total GDP. In 2000 while BRIC-T countriestotal GDP corresponds to % 8 of world countries total GDP, the increase of this rate to % 19 in 2010 is a significant evidence to be noticed. As can be followed from Table 1, the GDP of the studied 5 countries in 2010 is totally 11,956 Billion$. This value corresponds to the % 71 of European Unity GDP, % 28 of OECD 162 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo countries GDP and % 19 of world countries total GDP. In 2000 while BRIC-T countriestotal GDP corresponds to % 8 of world countries total GDP, the increase of this rate to % 19 in 2010 is a significant evidence to be noticed. 3. Openness and Growth : Literature Scan The studies searching the relationship between trade openness and economic growth, country groups, the used methods and results are presented in Table 2. As can be followed from Table 2 the view that openness affects the economic growth positively is generally supported in the studies and the importance of growth based on export is emphasized. Table 2: Abstract of Some Theoric and Ampirical Studies Searching the Openness and Economic Growth Relationship Writers Sampling and Used Econometric Method Edwards (1998) 93 countries study Method of Least Squares He found that total factor productivity increased more rapidly in the country that are more open. Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand (1999) Ahmad and Anoruo (2000) For 59 countries 1960-92 Period Johansen cointegrationmethod They found that there was a positive relationship between openness and growth in 19 countries that has cointegration relations. They indicated that openness and growth variables were cointegrated,and also they expressed that there was a two-sided causality relationship between openness and growth in error correction model. Study results supports the export-oriented growth hypothesis. They expressed that export and foreign capital inputs have significant and positive effects on economic growth. Ahmad (2001) Sun and Parikh (2001) Vamvakidis (2002) Jin (2003) Wu (2004) Kaplan (2004) Utkulu and Kahyaoğlu (2005) Yapraklı (2007) Kurt and Berber (2008) For 5 countries1960-97 period Johansen cointegrationmethod Developed and developing countries, Engle-Granger and VAR model 29 region of China(1985-1995) Panel Data Analysis Regression predicted for various periods North Koreathe period of 1953 and 1999 Granger causality test APEC (Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation) countries. General Equilibrium Model Türkey (1990-2004) Non-linear Time Series and Markow Modelling Türkey (1990-2006) Johansen Cointegraiton Method Türkey (1989-2003) VAR analysis Yang (2008) 30 countries (OECD and Asya) between 1958 and 2004 Panel Data Analysis Omisakin vd. (2009) Nigeria (1970-2006) Toda-Yamamoto causality and ARDL Method Source: Writers’ studies 163 Basic Findings He identified that free trade has had no positive effect on the growth since 1870,even this effect was positive in 1930’sand he expressed that this could be explained by the changing world trade regime. He supports the hypothesis that free trade arouses the economic growth. He identified that openness not only provided an effective change in country’s economy,but also it changed the structure of production technology. He identified that the changes of economic policy effected the sectors in economy and production factors in different ways. They found that trade openness in Turkey affected the growth positively. He identified that economic growth was affected positively from trade openness and there was a mutual causality between trade openness and economic growth in short term. They expressed that the hypothesis that trade openness claimed by endogeneous growth theories would increase the growth was applicable for Turkish economy. In the economies where the export growth is more rapid than the economic growth it was identifeid that froeign exchang policy helped in this situation. There is a positive relationship betweeen trade openness and growth and a % 10 increase in trade openness rate increases the growth nearly with the rate of % 7. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4. AMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 4.1. Data set and Model In this study, the effect of openness on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. From the variables used in the analysisy;represents the growth rate (GDP) andopen;represents trade openness (X+M/GSYİH). The data was obtained from the web pages of IMF and the World Bank (www.imf.org, www.worldbank.org). For analysis Stata 11 and Eviews 5.1. econometric analysis programmes were used and for model choise and correction tests codes22 were used. 4.2. Method Panal data analysis was used to search the data from different countries together. Panel data analysis (Baltagi, 2001; Gujarati, 1999 and Tarı, 2010): This model was based on decomposing the error term ( ) to its components in terms of its individual and time effects. In the modeliindicates the countries, tindicates the time. When the error term was decomposed: was obtained. This final equation is called error component model. Here indicates the individual effects, indicates the time effects.It is supposed (Independent Identically Distributed), in other words the avarage of error terms is zero, its variant is stable and it is distributed normally(having white noise process).In the Panel data analysis the stability of the series are searched through panel unit root tests firstly.Then the type of individual and time effects should be identified. An indogeneity test should be conducted among the variables when there is a variable which is considered to have a close relation with the given variable,therefore it is suspected for its indogeneity. After that a model should be estimated and the problems of changing variant and autocorrelation in the model should be tested. 4.3.Panel Unit Root Analysis It is accepted that the panel unit root tests which regard the information about both time and horizontal section dimension of the data are statistically stronger than the time series unit root tests which regard the information only about the time dimension (Im, Pesaran ve Shin,1997; Maddala ve Wu, 1999; Taylor ve Sarno, 1998; Levin, Lin ve Chu, 2002; Hadri, 2000; Pesaran, 2006; Beyaert and Camacho, 2008).Because the variability in the data increases when the horizontal section dimension is included to the analysis. The first problem in panel unit root test is whether the horizontal sections building the panel are independent or not. At that point panel unit root tests are classified as the first generation 22 For codes Thanks to Prof. Haluk Erlat, Asst.Prof. Bülent Güloğlu and Asst. Prof. Şaban Nazlıoğlu . 164 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo and the second generation. The first generation tests are also classified as homogeneous and heterogeneous.While Levin, Lin and Chu (2002), Breitung (2000) and Hadri (2000) are based on homogeneous model hypothesis; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) are based on heterogeneous model hypothesis. On the other hand, the main second generation unit root tests are MADF (Taylor and Sarno, 1998), SURADF (Breuer, Mcknown and Wallace, 2002), Bai and Ng (2004) and CADF (Pesaran, 2006). Since the countries included in the analysis are not homogeneous, Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) will use (IPS) testin this study. This test: is based on the model above. Here ; is error correction term and when <1 happens, we understand that the serie is trend stable ,on the other hand when 1 happens, it has unit root, thus it is not stable.IPS test enables the sto differentiate for the horizontal section units, in other words heterogeneous panel structure.Test hypotheses: H0: for all the horizontal section units,so the serie is not stable. H1: for at least one horizontal section unit,so the serie is stable. When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that the serie is stable. IPS panel unit root test results are on Table 4. Table4:IPS Panel Unit Root Test Results Level Possibility First Possibility Variant Value Value Difference Value Y -0,74 0,77 -2,64 0,00 OPEN 3,66 0,99 -3,79 0.00 Note:In Panel unit root test Schwarz criterionis used and delay length is regarded as 1.. When we study on the results on Table 4, it is observed that only Y and OPENseries are not stable in level value and series became stable in the first difference. In other words,in the studied period it is found out that macroeconomic variables are not stable and the shock effects on these variables do not disappear after a while.So we can say that the last economic crisis was destabilized the countries’ economies considerably. 4.4. Breush- Pagan Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Test In this stage of the analysis, LM test was performed in order to determine the type of time effect and individual effects( random or stable). Because the selected countries are not in a certain economic group, it was anticipated that individual effects would be random and also the time effects would be random for the countries because there is an economic crisis affecting most of the countries in the studied period. Whether the effects are really random or not can be determined by LM test (Baltagi. 2001:15). 165 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo LM test is classified as LM1 and LM2 . LM=LM1+LM2. LM1; tests the randomness of individual effects and F2 tests the randomness of time effects. In LM1 test; H0: (No individual effects ) hypothesis is tested throughLM1 statistics. LM1 statistics is calculated by the formula below. (4) Here ; indicates the individual effects in the equation (4), N;indicates the horizontal section (country) number, T; indicates the time dimension, ; indicates the prediction for the error terms in the equation (3). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that individual effects are random. In F2 test; H0: (No time effect) hypothesis is tested by LM2 statistics. LM2 statistics is calculated by the formula below. (5) Here ; indicates the individual effects in the equation (4), N; indicates the horizontal section (country) number , T; indicates the time dimension, ; indicates the predictions for the error terms in the equation (3). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that time effects are random. In LM=LM1+LM2 test; H0: (No individual and time effects) H1: or both of them (At least one or two of the effects are random). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that both of the effects are random.In this case the prediction is made through the two-sided random effect model.In Table 5 there are LM tests results. Table5: LM Tests Test Possibility Value Decision LM1 0,243 Individual Effects are not Random. LM2 0,052 Time Effects are not Random. LM 0.032 Individual Effects and Time Effects are not Random. When we look the results in Table 5, we can see thatindividual effects and time effects are stable.According to this result the prediction was made by the two-sided stable effect model. 166 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4.5. Hausman Endogeneity Test In this stage of the study,whether there was a relationship between the individual effects and the explanatory variables or not was tested by Hausman method. Test hypotheses: H0: Cov( No endogeneity problem. H1: Cov( An endogeneity problem. Here ; indicates the individual effets in the equation (4),but indicates the exlanatory variables in the equation (3). When the possibility value of (Chi2=Kikare) obtained from the analysis is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that there is an endogeneity problem in the model.In this case stable effects model is used.(Greene, 2003).However, when H0 is accepted,random effects model is used.This prediction is effective , non-deviated and coherent. Hausman test is not an alternative forLM test.But it works as function to check the decision by LM test. Hausman test was conducted and χ2=14.62 ve χ2 possibility value =0.406 was obtained and since this value was bigger than 0.05, H0 hypothesis was accepted and it was decided that there was no endogeneity problem in the model.In this case, it is necessary to do the analysis with the random effects model and this result supports the LM test results. 4.6. Two-Sided Random Effects Model Predictions Panel data analysis is predicted by the two-sided random effect model and the result are on theTable6. Table6: Predicition Results Standard Variant Coefficient t-Statistics Error Trade Openness 0,271 0,078 3,442 Crisis Dummy Variable 0,030 0,047 0,648 Stable Term 0,056 0,014 3,791 2 Weighted R =0,39 DW=1,89 Fist= 3,66 Root MSE=0.035 Possibility Value 0,000 0,518 0.000 In random effect models weighted statistics values are used. (Baltagi 2001: 21). When we look to the weighted test statistics in Table 6,we can see that model is reliable as statistically.Also whether there are flexible variants and autocorrelation problems in the model are tested below. 4.7. Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Flexible Variant Test The most common test in order to test whether the error terms variant of the model changes from horizontal section to horizontal section is LM test. (Greene, 2003). Test hypotheses: H0: variant problem. H1: At least one Variant is stable. So there is no flexible Variant is not stable. So there is a flexible variant problem. The required test statistics to test these hypotheses are calculated through the following formula: 167 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (6) When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected.In other words it is decided that there is a flexible variant problem in the model. (Greene, 2003). Lm test was conducted and the possibility value was found 0.23..In this case H0 was rejected and it was decided that there was no flexible variant problem in the model. 4.8. Autocorrelation Test It is a test to study the relationship of the error terms of the model with its delayed values.The equation to measure this relationship is AR(1) process (Wooldridge, 2002): (7) Test hypotheses: H0: H1: No autocorrelationproblem. Am autocorrelationproblem. The required test statistics to test these hypotheses is calculated by the following formula: (8) HereSSRR; indicates the sum of the squares of the error terms of the limited model in the equation (3) SSRUR; indicates the sum of the squares of error terms of the unlimited model, g; indicatesthe limit number anddf; indicates the independence grade. When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05,H0is rejected.It is decided that there is an autocorrelation problem in the model. (Drukker, 2003). F test was conducted and the possibility value was found0,622. In this case and it was decided that there was no autocorrelation problem in the model. H0is accepted Since there is no flexible variant and autocorrelation problems in the model, the prediction results are reliable and interpretable. As can be seen from the Table 6, financial development level affects the economic growth positively in line with the theoretical expectations.A % 1 increase in financial development level will increase the growth with the rate of % 1.33. The importance of the foreign direct investments especially in developing countries is often emphasized. As a result of the analysis the effect of a % 1 increase in the foreign direct investments on the growth will be % 0,79. Also trade openness variant used in the model was observed as the most effective variant in growth and it was found out that a %1 increase in openness level increased the growth with the rate of % 4,31. So this affected Turkey mostly in terms of the decrease in export depending on the decrease in external demand as a result of 2008 global economic crisis. (Somel, 2009). 5.CONCLUSION In this study the effect of financial development level on economic growth was searched via panel data analysis method in the sample of 5 developing countries which have an important place in the world economy(emerging markets, Brazil, Russia, India, China and TurkeyBRIC-T). The foreign direct investments and trade openness which were considered to affect 168 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the growth as well as financial development were included in the study where the annual data between 1989 and 2010 periods were used. At the panel unit root analysis result it was found out that series were not stable and the effects of shocks on the series did not disappear after a while and therefore it was determined that macroeconomic shocks affected the economy of the countries significantly. At the F tests result conducted to define the applicable panel data analysis method it was found out that individual and time effects were stable, for that reason an analysis with the two-sided stable effect model was carried out.At the endogeneity test result it was found out that there was no endogeneity problem in the model. At the model conformation tests result it was foud out that there was no flexible variant and autocorrelation problems in the model. In this regard, the predicted model is reliable econometrically. According to the analysis results, it was determined that a % 1 increase in financial development level increased the growth at the rate of % 1,33 , a % 1 increase in foreign direct investments increased the growth at the rate of % 0,79.Also it was found out that trade openness in the model was the most effective variant of the growth and the evidence that a % 1 increase in openness level increased the the growth at the rate of % 4,31.The expression that the global economic crisis in 2008 affected Turkey mostly in export dimension supports the analysis result. As a conclusion, in the study the effect of financial development, foreign direct investments and openness were searched and it was found that openness, financial development and foreign investments in turn affected the growth mostly. 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Brecher, A. R. (1974)"Optimal Commercial Policy For A Minimum-Wage Economy", Journal Of International Economics, (1992) "An Efficiency-Wage Model With Explicit Monitoring: 4, Ss. 139-149. Unemployment And Welfare In An Open Economy", Journal Of International Economics, 32, Ss. 179-191. Chow, P. C. Y. (1987) "Causality Between Exports And Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence From The Nic's", Journal Of Development Economics, 26, Ss.55-63. Dar, A., and Amirkhalkhali, S. (2003) "On The Impact Of Trade Openness On Growth: Further Evidence From Oecd Countries", Applied Economies, 35, 2, Ss. 1761-1766. Dickey, D. A., And Fuller, W. A. (1981) "The Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root", Econometrica, 49, Ss. 171 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1057-1072. Dollar, D. (1992) "Outward-Oriented Developing Economics Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence From 95 Ldc's, 1976-85", Economic Development And Cultural Change, 40(3), Ss. 523-544. Edwards, S. (1992) "Trade Orientation, Distortions, And Growth In Developing Countries", Journal Of Development Economics, 39, (1998) "Openness, Productivity And Growth: What Do We Really Ss.31-57. Know?" The Economic Journal, 108, March, Ss. 383-398. Eroğlu, N. (2003) "The Development of Economy Policies in Turkey", Turkish Republic Symposiumin 80 th year29-31 Ekim, İstanbul. Granger, C.W.J., Huang, B., Ve Yang, C.W. (1998) "A Bivariate Causality Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence From Recent Asia Flu", Ucsd Economics Discussion Paper, April, Ss. 98-09. Harrison, A. (1996) "Openness And Growth: A Time Series, Cross-Country Analysis For Developing Countries", Journal Of Development Economics, 48, Ss. 419-447. Jaleel, A. (2001) "Causality Between Exports And Economic Growth: What Do The Econometric Studies Tell Us?", Pacific Economic Review, 6(1), Ss. 147-167. Jin, Jang C. (2003) "Openness And Growth In North Korea: Evidence From Time-Series Data", Review Of International Economics, 11(1), Ss. 1827. Kaplan, M. (2004) "An Analytical Evaluation Of The Impact Of Openness On Economic Performance: A Three-Sector General Equilibrium Open Economy Model", Turkish Economic Association, Discussion Paper, 2004/14, June. Kwan, A. C. C., Ve Cotsomitis, J. (1991) "Economic Growth And The Expanding Export Sector: China 1952-1985", International Economic Journal, 5, Ss. 105-117. Lucas, R. E. (1988) "On The Mechanics Of Economic Development", Journal Of Monetary Economics, 22(1), Ss. 3-42. Levine, R. Ve Renelt, D. (1992) "A Sensitivity Analysis Of Cross-Country Growth Regressions", American Economic Review, 82, Ss. 942-963. Michaely, M. (1977) "Exports And Growth: An Empirical Investigation", Journal Of Development Economics, 4, Ss. 49-53. Rodriguez, F. Ve Rodrik, D. (1999) "Trade Policy And Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide To The Cross National Evidence", Nber Working Paper, No: 7081. Romer, D. (1993) "Openness And Inflation: Theory And Evidence", Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 108, Ss. 869-903. 172 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Romer, P. (1986) "Increasing Returns And Long Run Growth", Journal Of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037. (1990) "Endogenous Technical Change", Journal Of Political Economy, 98, October, Ss. 71-102. (1994) "Perspectives On Growth Theory", Journal Of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), Winter. Sachs, J. D. Ve Warner, A. (1995) "Economic Reform And The Process Of Global Integration", Brooking Papers Of Economic Activity 0 (1), Ss. 195. Sinha, D., Ve Sinha, T. (1996) "Openness And Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence From India, Applied Economics, Ss.21-28. Seyidoğlu, H. (2003) "International Economy; Theory, Policy and Application", 15. Press, Güzem Publishing, March, İstanbul. Sims, C. A. (1980) "Macroeconomics And Reality", Econometrica, 48, Ss. 146. Vamvakidis, A. (2002) "How Robust Is The Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence", Journal Of Economic Growth, 7, Ss. 57-80. Wu, Y. (2004) "Openness, Productivity And Growth In The Apec Economies", Empirical Economies, 29, Ss. 593-604. http://www.dtm.gov.tr/Ekonomi/Trkekon.htm, 2005. Foreign Capital Inflow and Sustainable Economic Development: A Case Study of Turkey Ahmet Cetin1, Murat Mustafa Kutluturk1, Birol Cetin2 1CankiriKaratekin University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 18100 Cankiri, Turkey. 2Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency, VlahaBukovca, Podgoritsa. E-mails: akcetin@hotmail.com, mmkutluturk@gmail.com,bcetin@gop.edu.tr Abstract This study analyses the effect of foreign capital inflow (especially foreign direct investment) on the sustainable economic development of Turkey. The main objectives of the study are to analyses the long run relationship between foreign direct investment and sustainable economic development. Quarterly data were used from the period of 1992:Q1 to 2011:Q3. The Engle-Granger Methodology for cointegration was applied to estimate the long run relationship. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were used to check the stationarity of each variable in the model. The ADF tests of the differences of each variable indicate that all of the variables are integrated of the first order. Cointegration was applied to estimate the long run relationship. A stable long run relationship was found between foreign direct investment and the sustainable economic development. Even if error correction 173 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1322 Title A name given to the resource The Effect Of Openness On Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Author Author Mehmet Mercan, Mercan Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, the effect of openness on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. As openness variable, the proportion of external trade scale to GDP was used. According to empirical evidence derived from the study made with panel data analysis it was found that the effect of openness on economic growth was positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations. Keywords:Trade Openness, Economic Growth, BRIC Countries, Turkey. Jel Codes: E41, F43, G53 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f62d5d838f22929c8e059d7caf945c47.pdf 72ada5110bc18d0819b39fa7e6d38bb3 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Richman S., (1997), The evils of economic sanctions, http://www. fff.org/freedom/0297c.asp, (accessed on December 24, 2012) Rudy, M., and Venteicher J., (2006), Prospect Theory and economic sanctions, Midwest Political Science, pp. 9-11 Talwar, P., (2001), Iran in the balance, Foreign affairs, Vol. 80, No. 4, pp.58-71 The Economist, (2012), http://www.economist.com, (accessed on February 7, 2012) Today’s Zeman, (2010), http://www.todayszaman.com/mainAction.action, (accessed on February 7, 2012) Torbat, A. E., (2005), Impact of the US trade and Financial sanctions on Iran, The world economy, Volume 28, Issue 3, pages 407–434 Torchia, A.,(2012), Analysis: Iran economy could limp along under sanctions, Reuters, http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE8150MH20120206, pp. 1-8. Wallensteen, P.,(1968), Characteristics of Economic Sanctions, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 5, No. 3 pp. 248-267 Wall Street Journal, (2012), http://europe.wsj.com/home-page, (accessed on February 7, 2012) Risk Tolerance and Investment Preferences in Bosnia and Herzegovina Mela Hadrovic, Ugur Ergun International Burch University, Faculty of Economics, 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. E-mails: mela_hadrovic@hotmail.com, uergun@ibu.edu.ba Abstract Risk tolerance is considered as an important factor in making financial decisions, saving and investment choices. This paper has examined level of investment risk tolerance and investment preferences of B&H’s population and it had explored whether demographic and socioeconomic factors to risk tolerance and investment preferences. Using a randomly chosen sample of 200 individuals above the age of 20, empirical analysis has shown that above independent variables that are significantly affecting individual’s risk tolerance are income level, education level and gender. Regression analysis has proven that above average risk tolerance is associated with higher income level and higher education level. Moreover, analysis has supported the assumption that males are more risk tolerant then females. Regarding the investment preferences, obtained results show that the out of eight independent variables, only variable measuring whether an individual has a financial commitment is significantly negatively related to the investment. 222 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Keywords: Risk tolerance, Risk aversion, Investment preferences, demographic and socioeconomic factors, regression model, level of significance. 1. INTRODUCTION Risk tolerance is being defined as degree to which an investor is willing and able to accept the possibility of an uncertain outcome to an economic decision. This means that risk tolerance is maximum amount of uncertainty one is willing to accept when making a decision, in this case financial decision (Holton, 2004).Due to the fact that risk tolerance is major factor affecting financial decisions, numerous researches have been done to explore and define what are the factors affecting risk tolerance. These researches have been considering demographic, socioeconomic and attitudal factors as factors affecting risk tolerance and have examined factors such as gender, age, marital status, income level, education, occupation and others as determinants of individuals risk tolerance. (MacCrimmon&Wehrung, 1986; Grable & Lytton, 1998; Hallahana et al., 2004). The primary goal of the research is to analyze how risk tolerant or risk adverse are people in Bosnia and Herzegovina, to examine their investment preferences and to test what demographic and socioeconomic factors are significantly affecting level of risk tolerance and investment preferences. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, sample of date is being introduced and described and independent and dependent variables are being shortly described and analyzed. The same section also explains the methodology of the research. Section 3 presents and discusses results of the empirical analysis. Finally, Section 4 summarizes the research and presents key conclusions of the research. 2. DATA, VARIABLES AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 2.1. Data The research is based on the data gathered from the survey. 200 individual have been asked to complete 10 question survey and survey instrument contained information about respondents’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Two hundred respondents were randomly chosen and survey was performed by phone and this is why there are no missing values for any question. 2.2. Variables In the first analysis risk tolerance variable is taken as dependent variable. It represents the self-assessed level of risk tolerance each respondent has determined for himself. In the second analysis investment type is defined as dependent variable and it is taking following values for different types of investment: 1=deposit, 2=lend to someone, 3=stocks, 4=real estate, 5=mutual funds, 6=gold and silver and 7=collectibles. When considering independent variables, based on the previous research performed by Demirel and Gunay (2011) and Al-Ajmi (2008), age, marital status, education level, number of dependents, stability of income source, and whether individual has financial commitments are chosen as variables that are expected to be significantly affecting risk tolerance and 223 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo investment preferences. Independent variables and their values are being summarized in the table below. Variable Gender Measurement 1= male Variable Number of dependents 2= female Age Respondents’ age (20 Stability – 60) source of Measurement Respondents’ number of dependents income 1 = unpredictable 2= somewhat predictable 3= reasonably predictable 4= predictable 5= very predictable Marital Status 1= married Income 1= <300 KM 2= 300 – 700 2= not married 3= 700 – 1000 4= 1000 – 1500 5= 1500 – 2000 6= 2000 – 2500 7= >2500 Education 1= secondary 2= postsecondary 3= Bachelor 4= Master 5= PhD Table 1. Independent variable definitions 2.3. Statistical Analysis 224 Financial commitments 0= no loan 1= having loan �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The model used for the empirical analysis is multiple regression model that permits estimating effect on Yi of changing one variable X1i while holding the other regressors constant (Stock & Watson, 2006). Multiple regression models that are going to be estimated is as following: Yi = β0 + β1Age + β2Gender+ β3Status + β4Educ + β5Dep + β6FreqY + β7IncLev + β8Loan (1) Model developed is used for both analyses, for testing significance of independent variables in relation to either risk tolerance in first case and investment preferences in the second analysis. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1. Sample characteristics Regarding the sample characteristics, out of 200 respondents 58.5% were male and 41.5% were female. Respondents have ranged from 22 to 59 years old and approximately 70% of all respondent are in the age range from 25 to 46. Furthermore, 60.5% of respondents are married and 39.5% are not married. For the simplification of the analysis “not married” are considered all who are either single, divorced, separated, widowed, etc. (Grable & Lytton, 1999). Most of the respondents are having either secondary or bachelor degree, 45% and 39% respectively, while all other education level account only for 16%. When it comes to the number of dependent, response have ranged from 1 to 5 members and most of the respondents, about 37% of them have 4 family members. Considering income aspect, most of the respondents have either predictable or at least reasonably predictable (stable) income source, accounting for approximately 65% of all response. Data on the income level match the data provided by Federal Office of Statistics that the average salary is approximately 800 KM and survey has shown that most of the people are in the income group from 700 – 1000 KM (Federal Office of statistics) When considering dependent variables, it is evident that people in Bosnia and Herzegovina are below average risk tolerant given the fact that approximately 70% of respondent have rated their risk tolerance 5 or less then 5, on the scale from 0 to 10. The unwritten rule states that people in B&H only believe in investment in real estate and this research has proven so, 57% of all respondents have stated that they would invest in real estate, while all other six types of investment account for the 43% (deposits 20%, lending to someone 0.5%, stocks 9%, mutual fund 4.5%, gold and silver 8% and collectibles 1%). 3.1. Risk tolerance estimated model Coefficientsa Model 1 225 Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constant) 2.274 Std. Error .354 Standardized Coefficients Beta t 6.425 Sig. .000 95,0% Confidence Interval for B Lower Upper Bound Bound 1.576 2.972 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo .096 .385 .443 2 IncLev .669 (Constant) 1.733 6.949 4.499 .000 .000 .479 .973 .859 2.492 .102 .149 .399 .357 .217 3 IncLev .540 Education .476 (Constant) 1.389 5.265 3.203 3.481 .000 .002 .001 .338 .183 .602 .742 .770 2.176 IncLev .478 .103 .316 Education .519 .147 .236 Gender .793 .289 .172 a. Dependent Variable: RiskTol Table 2.I Multiple regression; coefficients 4.627 3.525 2.746 .000 .001 .007 .274 .228 .223 .682 .809 1.363 Based on the stepwise multiple regression, the final estimated model for the risk tolerance is as follows: Y = + 1.389 + 0.478IncLev + 0.519Educ + 0.793Gender (2) β0 represents the intercept and the its value in the final model is 1.389 meaning that if all independent variables are zero value of an individual’s risk tolerance will be 1.389. This can further be explained as human nature of being resistant to risk. Furthermore, although gender variable is statistically insignificant (0.07>0.05) model includes it because of significant bivariate correlation with risk tolerance. In such a situation, researcher can decide whether to include given variable in the model or not. R2 and adjusted R2 are measures that quantify the extent to which the regressors account for the variation in the dependent variable. Since R square is increasing when every next variable is added to the model, adjusted R2is better measurement of the mode fit (Stock & Watson, 2006). The estimated model has adjusted R2value of 0.253 meaning that 25.3% of the variations in the dependent variable are explained by income level, education level and gender variables. This indicates that research should be revised and improved by adding new independent variables that are potentially affecting risk tolerance and better predicting variations. Variables that could be considered for the future research could be: current economic situation in the county, economic expectations, interest rates and financial knowledge (Ribeiro, 2001; Grable & Lytton, 1999). 3.2. Investment preferences estimated model All the independent variables have been introduced in the model and by performing stepwise multiple regression the following coefficient were estimated: 226 Coefficients a �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Model Unstandardized Standardized 95,0% Confidence Interval Coefficients Coefficients for B B 1 (Constant Std. Error 3.833 .158 -.514 .208 Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound 24.213 .000 3.521 4.146 -2.474 .014 -.924 -.104 ) Loan -.173 a. Dependent Variable: Investment Table 3. II Multiple regression; coefficients As shown in the table above out of eight independent variables, only variable measuring whether an individual has a financial commitment proved to be significantly affecting investment type. Y= 3.833 – 0.514Loan (3) Equation (3) shows that if all independent variables are exactly zero, value of dependent variable (investment type) will be approximately 3.833, approaching value of investment in real estate. Moreover, adjusted R2 has a value of 0.025 meaning that produced equation provides explanation for only 2.5% of variations in investment type preferred by respondents. The graph shows that most of the respondents (57%) have answered that they would invest in the real estate. 20% would make deposit in the bank, while other four investment types all together account for 30%. As in the case of risk tolerance, insignificance of independent variables suggests that further research should be performed by introducing new variables mentioned in the previous section. Conventional wisdom claims that people in B&H only believe in investment in real estate and consider it the least risky. This explains the outcome of the survey. Figure 1 Graphical representation of investment types 4. CONCLUSION In this study, model for testing significance of demographic and socioeconomic factors in determining risk tolerance and investment preferences was developed. Firstly, income level, education level and gender were proven to be significant and positively related to risk tolerance. As each of these variables increase, risk tolerance is increasing. Secondly, multiple 227 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo regression models has identified that only financial commitments are significant for determination of investment and this relation is negative, showing that if an individual has a financial commitment it investment will decrease or it will choose less risky investment. Due to the fact that both estimated models are having low adjusted R2, they are not a very good explanation of variations in dependent variables; in the future of the research new variables should be included. Until now research was mostly focused on demographic characteristics of each survey respondent, but in the future more of the socioeconomic factors characteristic for Bosnia and Herzegovina are going to be considered. In this way, current economic situation, macroeconomic data, interest rates, economic expectations and individual’s financial knowledge are going to be used as predictors of risk tolerance and investment preferences. This will improve the model, it will provide more complex and accurate explanation of what are the possible reasons why risk tolerance and investment preferences vary. However research needs improvements in the future, the overall conclusion of the is that demographic and socioeconomic factors are affecting risk tolerance and investment preference. REFERENCES Al-Ajmi, Y. J. (2008). Risk Tolerance of Individual Investors in an Emerging Market. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics.Vol. 17, pp. 15-26. Demirel, E. and Gunay, S. G. (2011).Financial Risk Taking Behavior Comparisons between Two Different Countries Based on Demographic Factors: Turkey and Macedonia Case. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics.Vol. 10, pp. 111-120. Federal Office of Statistics. Last Accessed on 4 27, 2012, from http://www.fzs.ba/ Grable, J. E.and Lytton, R. H. (1998). Investor risk tolerance: Testing the efficacy of demographics as differentiating and classifying factors. Financial Counseling and Planning, 9 (1), pp. 61-74. Grable, J. E. and Lytton, R.H. (1999).Assessing Financial Risk Tolerance: Do Demographic, Socioeconomic,And Attitudinal Factors Work?. Journal of the FRHD/FERM. Hallahana, T. A., R. W. Faffb and M. D. McKenziea, 2004. “An Empirical Investigation of Personal Financial Risk Tolerance”, Financial Services Review 13, pp. 57–78. Holton, G. A. (2004). Defining risk.Financial Analyst Journal.60 (6),pp. 19-25. MacCrimmon, K. R. and Wehrung, D. A. (1986).Taking risks.New York: The Free Press. Ribeiro, B. M. and Teixeira, J. R. (2001).An econometric analysis of private-sector investment in Brazil.Cepal.Review 74, pp. 153-166. Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (2006).Introduction to Econometrics.2nd edition, Pearson Education International 228 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1327 Title A name given to the resource Risk Tolerance and Investment Preferences in Bosnia and Herzegovina Author Author Mela , Hadrovic ERGÜN, Uğur Abstract A summary of the resource. Risk tolerance is considered as an important factor in making financial decisions, saving and investment choices. This paper has examined level of investment risk tolerance and investment preferences of B&H’s population and it had explored whether demographic and socioeconomic factors to risk tolerance and investment preferences. Using a randomly chosen sample of 200 individuals above the age of 20, empirical analysis has shown that above independent variables that are significantly affecting individual’s risk tolerance are income level, education level and gender. Regression analysis has proven that above average risk tolerance is associated with higher income level and higher education level. Moreover, analysis has supported the assumption that males are more risk tolerant then females. Regarding the investment preferences, obtained results show that the out of eight independent variables, only variable measuring whether an individual has a financial commitment is significantly negatively related to the investment. Keywords: Risk tolerance, Risk aversion, Investment preferences, demographic and socioeconomic factors, regression model, level of significance. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/5ed8914bb78299c8ff6b4a034c55c318.pdf 499396ad95f89d914b5a182ab6afb0aa PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Khuwaja, G. A. &Laghari, M. S. (2011). Offline Handwritten Signature Recognition. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 59. Basavaraj, L. &Sudhaker Samuel, R.D. (2009). Offline-line Signature Verification and Recognition: An Approach Based on Four Speed Stroke Angle. International Journal of Recent Trends in Engineering, Vol 2. Zhao, F., & Tang, X. (2006). Preprocessing and postprocessing for skeleton-based fingerprint minutiae extraction, Pattern Recognition 40 (2007) 1270 – 1281, The Journal of Pattern Recognition Society. Zhili, W. (2002). Fingerprint Recognition. Unpublished Bachelor’s Thesis, Hong Kong Baptist University. A Case Study of Probit Model Analysis of Factors Affecting Consumption of Packed and Unpacked Milk in Turkey Meral Uzunoz1, Yasar Akcay2 1Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics, Turkey 2Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences Department of Economics, Turkey E-mails: meral.uzunoz@gop.edu.tr,yasar.akcay@gop.edu.tr Abstract This paper focused on the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk in Sivas, Turkey. The data were collected from 300 consumers by using face to face survey technique. Binary probit model has been used to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting milk consumption of households. According to empirical results, consumers with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. The majority of consumers reads the contents of packed milk and is affected by safety food in their shopping preferences. Keywords: Milk consumption, Consumer preferences, Binary probit model 9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.INTRODUCTION Milk is a unique food item that needs to be available in the market without any shortage since it plays a key role in infant feeding and alleviating nutritional poverty in all other age groups. It has been perceived by consumers as an important source of nutrients, especially calcium for good bone and teeth health (Alwis et al. 2009). Therefore, it is advisable to consume an adequate amount of milk and milk products for healthy lifestyle (Hatirli et al. 2004). Increasing population and income, together with the growing popularity of dairy products, particularly among developing country consumers is a key factor behind strong demand in the medium term. Demand continues to be encouraged by the growing influence of retail chains and multinational companies in these countries, which is facilitating improved consumer access to dairy products. The demand for milk and dairy products is expected to remain particularly strong in important developing dairy markets such as North Africa, the Middle East and East Asia, but also in more mature markets such as those in the European Union, the United States and Russia. The rate of growth and per capita consumption of milk and milk products remains significantly different among regions. LDC (Least Developed Countries) consume less than 50 kg per person per year on average, compared with 100 kg per person for developing countries, while the developed regions of North America and Europe consume well in excess of 200 kg per person (in milk equivalent). Such a per capita consumption disparity represents an investment potential and future opportunities for both the domestic and global dairy sectors (OECD/FAO 2011). However, per capita milk consumption in Turkey is low by any comparison due to Turkish people’s consumption patterns, income levels and nutritional habits. Turkey is far behind the European countries and the world in milk consumption (Pazarlioglu et al. 2007). In Turkey, annual per capita milk consumption is 26 lt (WMDA 2011). Per capita milk consumption are 66,9 lt in EU, 90.0 lt in USA, 91.5 lt in Canada, 108.14 lt in Austria, 78.2 lt in New Zeland, 87.2 lt in Russia, 97.0 kg in Sweden, 80.1 lt in Ukrain (AEPDI 2011). Milk is consumed as unpacked fluid milk and packed fluid milk in Turkey. Unpacked fluid milk, also called street milk in Turkey, refers to milk that is produced at farms without any control and packed fluid milk refers to milk produced under fluid milk technology such as pastorization or UHT. Respective shares of milk processing plants in total milk consumption of Turkey are 27% modern dairy factories, 33% for medium sized establishments and dairies, 20% for uncontrolled producers, 20% for producers’ self consumption (Pazarlioglu et al. 2007). The main goal of this study was to determine the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk. 2. DATA AND METHODS 2.1. Data The data was obtained by direct interviewing the individual households of 300 residences who live in Sivas province. The survey was conducted in June 2009. The sample size was determined using the Possibility-Sampling Method (Yamane 2001). 10 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo n ( Nt 2 . p.q) (d 2 N  t 2 . p.q) where N is the number of households in Sivas province (63153) (TURKSTAT 2009), t is z number is the required confidence interval (for 95 percent confidence interval t = 1.96), p is possibility for an event to occur (the rate of consuming packed milk, 0.5), q is the possibility for an event not to occurring (the rate of not consuming packed milk, 0.5), d is acceptable error rate during sampling (0.0564). 2.2. Methods The probit model is a statistical probability model with two categories in the dependent variable (Liao, 1994). Probit analysis is based on the cumulative normal probability distribution. The binary dependent variable, y, takes on the values of zero and one (Aldrich and Nelson 1984). Binary probit model was employed to the survey data to see the effects of socio-economic and demographic variables on the consumer purchase decision of packed and unpacked milk. In the binary probit model, packed milk preference (PACKMILKPREF) was taken as 1, while unpacked milk as 0. It is assumed that the ith household obtains maximum utility it has packed milk preference rather than unpacked one. The probability pi of choosing any alternative over not choosing it can be expressed as in equation (1), where ɸ variable (Greene 2011). Y i pi= prob   t2  1 X    xi (2 ) 1 / 2 exp    2  dt  ( xi   )  (1) The relationship between a specific variable and the outcome of the probability is interpreted by means of the marginal effect, which account for the partial change in the probability. The marginal effect associated with continuous explanatory variables Xk on the probability P(yi=1|X), holding the other variables constant, can be derived as equation 2 (Greene 2011); pi    ( xi  )  k xik (2) where  represents the probability density function of a standard normal variable. The marginal effect on dummy variables should be estimated differently from continuous variables. Discrete changes in the predicted probabilities constitute an alternative to the marginal effect when evaluating the influence of a dummy variable. Such an effect can be derived from equation 3 (Greene 2011).   ( x , d  1)  ( x , d  0) (3) The definition belong to variables are defined in Table 1. In the study, the variables considered affecting choices of households between preference alternatives are: gender (GEN), age (AGE), education (EDU), professional status (PS), marital status (MS), household size (HS), income (INC), milk consumption (MILKCON), milk price (MILKPRI), 11 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo reason of milk preference (PREFREA) and place of milk buying (MILKPLACE). In earlier studies (Hill and Lynchehaun, 2002; Fuller et al., 2004; Hatirli et al., 2004; Vandermersch and Mathijs, 2004; Peng et al., 2006; Pazarlioglu et al., 2007; Celik et al., 2006; Akbay and Tiryaki, 2008; Alviola and Capps. 2009; Kilic et al., 2009; Tiryaki and Akbay, 2010) properties such as household size, gender, age, education, professional status, marital status, household income, ethnicity, and advertising were studied as exogenous variables. Table 1. Definition of Variables Variables Defination MILKPRE (Milk preference) 1= Packed milk; 0= Unpacked milk GEN (gender) 1= Male; 0= Female AGE (age) 0= 18-25; 1= 26-35; 2= 36-44; 3= 45 or older EDU (Education) 0= Illiterate and primary school graduates; 1= Secondary school graduates; 2= High school graduates; 3= University graduate; 4= Post graduates PS (Professional Status) 1= Employee; 2= Labourer; 3= Self employed; 4= Offprofession; 5= Retired MS (Marital Status) 0= Married; 1= Single; 2= Divorced HS (Household Size) Average household (People/Family) INC (Income) Average monthly (TL/Month/Household) household MILKCON (Milk Consumption) Average monthly (kg/Month/Household) milk MILKPRI (Milk Price) Packed milk price (TL/kg), unpacked milk price (TL/kg) PREFREA Preference) (Reason of size. Number of People income; consumption Milk 0= Price; 1= Trade mark; 2= Taste; 3= Natural, organic 4= hygiene, package MILKPLACE (Place of Milk Buying) 1= home delivery 2= selling point 3= supermarket 4= handsellers 5= local bazaar 6= buying from village In this study, in order to determine the most appropriate model the variables described above, it was made various model experiments and was tested whether statistically significant at 1% significance level or not. As a result, three estimators (EDU, INC, MPRICE) in the probit model were found statistically significant at 1% level. Final model is below; 12 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo MILKPREi = β0 + β1EDUi + β2INCi + β3MILKPRIi + εi 3. RESULTS The male respondents constitute 64.34% of total respondents while female respondents constitute 35,66 % of it. Average age was 38.04. Educational attainment was classified into five categories, illiterate and primary school graduates (14.33%), secondary school graduates (8.33%), high school graduates (39.67%), university graduate (36.67%) and post graduates (2.00%). Average household size was found to be 3,95 people that is lower than the average household size (4.50 people) of Turkey (TURKSTAT 2011). Households earning less than $349 constituted 10 percent of total respondents, households earning between $350 and $1050 (49 percent) and households earning higher than $1051 (41 percent). The survey results illustrate that average annual income of households was found $8003 that was lower than the annual income per capita ($8215) of Turkey (UN 2011). In Sivas, per capita average annual milk consumption is 39.96 kg per capita whereas it is 26 kg in Turkey (WMDA 2011; 8). 71.3% of households preferred packed milk while 28.7% unpacked milk. 41.86% of illiterate and primary school graduates and 82.30% of university graduates consume packed milk. While 73.33% of consumer in low income group consume unpacked milk, 90.24% of consumer in high income group consume packed. 39.54% of households preferred unpacked milk as a priority because of cheaper than packed milk. The most important reasons were quality (28,64%) and hygiene (28.64%) for packed milk choice of consumers. Respondent consumed unpacked milk provided by home delivery (62.79%) and buying from village (16.28%). Households consumed packed milk preferred supermarket (89.09%) and selling point (10.91%). According to the results, consumers made a point of sell-by date (44.09%), taste (36.82%) and brand (9.09%) for packed milk. Table 2 presents results estimated from binary probit model. The model is significant at 1% level of probability. The estimated coefficients and standard errors reveal which factor influence respondents consumption intentions for fresh milk consumption. A statistically significant coefficient suggests that the likelihood of consumption of product will increase/ decrease as the response on the explanatory variable increase/decrease (Borooah 2002). McFadden Pseudo coefficient of determination (R2) was calculated about 0.288. This value represents that variables placed in the model explain high level the probabilities of packed and unpacked milk choice of consumers. Three estimators (EDU, INC, MPRICE) in the probit model were found statistically significant at 1% level. Table 2. Estimates of the binary probit model Variable Coefficient Constant EDU -0.36167 0.29694 13 Std. Error 0.76226 0.12694 z- Statistic Probability -4.745 2.339 0.0000 0.0193 Marginal Effects -1.0164 0.0835 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo INCOME MPRICE Log-likelihood Restricted Log-L Pseudo-R2 x2 (df =11) Significance level Akaike Info Criteria 0.00057 -0.61494 -136.6527 -187.5953 0.288 105.66 0.00022 0.51561 2.548 6.110 0.0108 0.0000 0.0161 -0.0089 0.000 0.991 onsumer’s education level (EDU) was found out an important socio-economic factor for the probabilities of packed and unpacked milk choice of consumers. In estimated model, education level variable was statistically important at significant level 1% and related positively. As educational level increases, tendency to consume rises packed milk and decreases unpacked fluid milk. Educational level might be a good starting point to increase the awareness of consumers concerning fluid milk consumption (Pazarlıoglu et al. 2007). Estimated model results support to this hypothesis. According to the estimated results, household’s income level (INCOME) is one of the factors affecting their packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. This variable is included in the model because low-income families may consume more unpacked milk when milk prices are lower. There is a positive relationship between packed consumption consumers’ income level and it is statistically significant at the level of 1%. For a household with high income level, the probability of consuming packed milk decreased by only 1.6%. It would emphasize that when income level rised, packed milk consumption increased. This result is a significant and expected. Thus, households preferred unpacked milk (39.54%) as a priority because of cheaper than packed milk. When increased in income level, consumption preferences of households tend to the packed milk. It is a known fact that unpacked milk was unhygienic. Therefore, it is said that households tend to the consumption of unpacked milk because of their economic difficulties. On the other hand, milk price (MPRICE) was determined as other main factors affecting their packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. Price was the primary reason mentioned in the survey for not purchasing packed fluid milk, as it was perceived as being quite expensive compared to unpacked fluid milk. In average, Turkish consumers have been sensitive to price of foods which they consume (Kilic et al. 2009). This variable found out significant at 1% level and was related negatively. This sign indicated that consumers who were sensitive to price were less likely to consume packed milk. According to the results, implied that consumers preferred price of packed milk are expensive compared to unpacked milk were less likely to consume packed milk. When milk price increased, the probability of packed milk consumption decreased 0,9%. 4. CONCLUSIONS This study focused on the socio-demographic factors influencing milk consumption in Sivas, Turkey. The findings of this study show that consumer’s socio-economic characteristics were affected unpacked and packed milk consumption preferences. According to the results from binary probit model; education, income and milk price are significant and associated with packed and unpacked fluid milk consumption. According to empirical results, consumers 14 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. In the light of the findings, the necessary policies are needed as providing of accessibility to adequate price, healthy, safety food and a mechanism reached to the level of per capita milk consumption in developed countries. Also, on the basis of the results of this study, it would be expected seller’s and companies’ marketing strategies on packed milk by looking at specific consumer preferences. REFERENCES AEPDI (2011). Dairy Situation and Outlook: 2011-2012 (Agricultural Economics and Policy Development Institute) Publication No: 191, ISBN: 978-975-407-326-3, Ankara. Akbay, C. and Tiryaki, G.Y. (2008). Unpacked and Packed Fluid Milk Consumption Patterns and Preferences in Turkey, Agricultural Economics, 38(1), 9-20. Aldrich, J.H. and Nelson. F.D. (1984). Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications, Inc. Alviola IV,P. and Capps, O, Jr. (2009). Household Demand Analysis of Organic and Conventional Fluid Milk in the United States, Dep.of Agr. Eco.Texas A&M Uni., Res.Report. Alwis, A.E.N., Edirisinghe, J.C. and Athauda, A.M.T.P. (2009). Analysis of Factors Affecting Fresh Milk Consumption Among The Mid-Country Consumers, Tropical Agricultural Research & Extension, 12(2),101-107. Borooah, V.K. (2002). Logit and Probit: Ordered and Multinomial Models. Series Quantitative Applications in the Social Science, No 138, Tousand Okas: Sage Publications. Celik, Y., Bilgic, A., Karlı, B. and Celik, S. (2006). Factors Affecting Milk Consumption Pattern in Southern Anatolian Region: An Application of a Two-stage Econometric Model, Bodenkultur, 57(2), 57-64. FAPRI (2012). World Dairy: 2011 Agricultural Outlook, http://www.fapri.iastate.edu Fuller, F.H., Beghin, J.C. and Rozelle, S. (2004). Urban Demand for Dairy Products in China: Evidence from New Survey Data, Working Paper 04-WP 380, Iowa, USA. Greene, WH (2011). Econometric Analysis, Seventh Edition. Prentice Hall, New Jersey. Hatirli, S.A., Ozkan, B., and Aktas, A.R. (2004). Factor Affecting Fluid Milk Purchasing Sources in Turkey, Food Quality and Preference, 15(6),509-515. Kilic, O., Akbay, C. and Tiryaki, Y. (2009). Factors Affecting Packed and Unpacked Fluid Milk Consumption, Agricultural Economics– Czech, 55(11),557–563. Liao, T.F. (1994). Interpreting Probability Models: Logit, Probit, and Other Generalized Linear Models, Thousand Oaks, Sage Publications, Inc., California, USA. OECD/FAO (2011). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020, URL http://dx.doi.org Pazarlioglu, M.V., Miran, B., Ucdogruk, S. and Abay, C. (2007). Using Econometric Modelling to Predict Demand for Fluid and Farm Milk: A Case Study from Turkey, Food Quality and Preference, 18,416–424. Peng,Y., West, G.E. and Wang, C. (2006). Consumer Attitudes and Acceptance of CLAEnriched Dairy Products, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 54(2006), 663–684. 15 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Tiryaki, G. and Akbay, C. (2010) Consumers’ Fluid Milk Consumption Behaviors in Turkey: An Application of Multinomial Logit Model, Quality and Quantity, 44,87–98. TURKSTAT (2009). Regional Statistics, URL http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr TURKSTAT (2011). Turkey’s Statistical Yearbook, 2010. Publication No: 3522, Ankara. WMDA (2011). Dairy and Products Sectoral Report, West Mediterranean Development Agency, http://baka.org.tr/uploads/1303486719SUT-URUNLERi-TURKCE-KATALOG.pdf Yamane, T. (2001). Basic Sampling Methods, Literatur Publishing, Istanbul. UN (2011). World Statistics Pocketbook. URL http://data.un.org/CountryProfile Integration And Sustainability Of Technology-Enhanced Systems Into Learning Environment: Cankiri Karatekin University Case Study Ari Murat1, Pekel Abdullah2 1Cankiri Karatekin University, Chairman of Informatics Department, Cankiri, Turkey 2Marmara University, School of Foreign Languages, Istanbul, Turkey E-mails: mari@karatekin.edu.tr, abdullah.pekel@hotmail.com Abstract As a result of the continuous search for global competitiveness through providing the society with high quality education in the light of emerging technologies, Cankiri Karatekin University has embarked on a strategic planning and a pilot study on transition to Distance Education (DE). Providing on-demand training for professional development, lifelong learning, career change aimed at quite varied groups in society, Cankiri Karatekin University sets its sight on maximizing the quality of communication and intellect sharing between academic staff as well as enabling the effective assessment of their academic performance thanks to the integrated e-learning/distance education and corporate communication platform. According to this tested project based model, distance education infrastructure and educational e-materials have been prepared and used as a supplement to formal education. By this means, ensuring students’ and teachers’ readiness is aimed for the success of the future pure distance education programs. The study evaluates the pilot project titled “Integrated Elearning and Teaching Environment” by Cankiri Karatekin University, which was founded in 2007 and strives for developing as a globally competitive academic institution by employing an effective and efficient model in the use of technology in education. The technical background features as well as results of the pilot project have been evaluated and further suggestions have been presented, considering distance education practices in the world in general and, in particular, the potential that Turkish Higher Education and Cankiri Karatekin University carry in the field. Keywords: Distance Education; e-learning; Communication; Teaching Environment 16 Life Long Learning; Institutional � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1143 Title A name given to the resource A Case Study of Probit Model Analysis of Factors Affecting Consumption of Packed and Unpacked Milk in Turkey Author Author Meral, Uzunoz Abstract A summary of the resource. This paper focused on the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk in Sivas, Turkey. The data were collected from 300 consumers by using face to face survey technique. Binary probit model has been used to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting milk consumption of households. According to empirical results, consumers with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. The majority of consumers reads the contents of packed milk and is affected by safety food in their shopping preferences. Keywords: Milk consumption, Consumer preferences, Binary probit model Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/268c626d6447e8cf4590d673c25533b7.pdf 1d9740307dd31ee49a7fe54fef5a0041 PDF Text Text BİNGÖL, M., (2006), İşletmelerde Bilişim Teknolojileri ve Yenilikçilik, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Erzurum. BAŞARAN, F., GERAY, H., (2005), İletişim Ağlarının Ekonomisi: Telekomünikasyon, Kitle İletişimi, Yazılım ve İnternet, Siyasal Kitabevi, Ankara. Obstacles in collaborative consumption websites’ development: A case from Bosna and Herzegovina Merima Bejtagic-Makic1 , Suncica Hadzidedic2 International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Sarajevo School of Science and Technology, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mails: merima.bejtagich@gmail.com, suncica.hadzidedic@ssst.edu.ba Abstract According to Rachel Botsman, a renowned social innovator, the 21st century will be characterized by collaborative consumption. It is a new mode of business backed up by network technologies and based on the ancient methods of trading by bartering and swapping. Collaborative consumption websites engage and specialize in information, service and goods sharing, swapping, renting, lending, and trading. The power of these new marketplaces is in changing the way people view ownership and consumption, alleviating the hardship of economic recession, freeing the flow of knowledge and information, and creating a business model which supports the reuse of goods and space for a greener world. The content of this research paper provides an understanding of the drivers for collaborative consumption technology in a developing country in economic recession time, precisely Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The key research question to be addressed in this study is: What are the issues faced in B&H when embarking on a collaborative consumption website development project? Keywords: collaborative consumption (CC), swapping, website development, green technologies, emerging technology issues, system requirements, case study, empirical approach, collaborative technologies 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Collaborative Consumption Global economic crisis, environmental issues, social and economic inequality, hyper production have lead to assets such as skills, time, goods, services, land, gardens, and "stuff" to be in a state of "idle capacity" i.e. under-utilization. Therefore, this created a need for an alternative way of obtaining goods and services which is through collaboration consumption. 588 �“Collaborative consumption” is a return to the beginnings of human society, which is based on swapping and renting goods and services. If the 20th century was defined by hyper consumption and is a growing culture and economy, the 21st century will be defined by collaborative consumption, according to Rachel Botsman speaking at Wired 2011 in October 21. Botsman, R. and Rogers, R. (2010) in their book ‘What’s Mine is Yours’ state that "The collaboration at the heart of Collaborative Consumption may be local and face-to-face, or it may use the Internet to connect, combine, form groups, and find something or someone to create "many to many" peer-to-peer interactions. Simply put, people are sharing again with their community - be it an office, a neighborhood, an apartment building, a school, or a Facebook network. But the sharing and collaboration are happening in ways and at a scale never before possible, creating a culture and economy of ‘What's Mine is Yours’”. 1.2 Research Objectives The objective of the here proposed research is: To provide an understanding of the drivers, and barriers, for collaborative consumption technology in a developing country in economic recession time, precisely Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). Specifically, the key research aim is to explore the issues faced in B&H when embarking on a collaborative consumption website development project. The research is based on experience from an actual CC website development project. Using a case study approach, the paper addresses the following sub-questions: R1: Do B&H website design and development companies have the capacity to engage on and deliver a CC website development project for a specified price and time? R2: What are the problems, i.e. obstacles, faced in the actual process of development of such a website in B&H? R3: What solutions can be suggested to the problems in order to accomplish successful implementation of CC website in B&H? 2. REVIEW OF COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION WEBSITES 2.1 Functionalities of CC Websites CC websites are distinguished from other websites on the Internet in its user friendly design and picturesque demonstrations with less writing. They use colors such as blue, green and some light versions of grey, brown and yellow. Most CC websites contain the following functions: ‘How it works’ – a link usually known as About Us which shortly describes the services offered on the website, “Item catalogue” - goods and services are divided into categories which make it easier for users to search, “Search button” along with advanced search to help users get to what they want efficiently and effectively, “personal list” of items offered and items wanted, “message exchange” for creating an offer and exchanging personal messages, member review, security measures encompassing a privacy policy and terms of use, and detailed membership application form. Majority of collaborative consumption websites exhibit a focus on one type of collaborative transaction – swapping, renting, borrowing, or sharing, and moreover focus on a specific group of categories. 589 �2.2 Existing CC Websites In this section, successful collaborative consumption websites around the world are introduced: 2.2.1 Airbnb: is an online global and travel network of accommodations offered by locals for rent. In 2011 Airbnb was awarded ‘The best website’ prize by the Guardian. 2.2.2 Taskrabbit.com: is an online and mobile service networking marketplace. It is a virtual neighborhood called a "Service Networking”. It allows you to post a task you need to get done and gets you in touch with friendly, reliable people who will do it for you for a small fee. 2.2.3 swap.com: is leading the global swap movement both online and in communities across all categories. 2.2.3 whipcar.com: allows a car owner to rent out their car for a certain fee to an approved driver with spare car time, when the car owner is not using it. 2.2.4 landshare.net: Landshare brings together people who have a passion for home-grown food, connecting those who have land to share with those who need land for cultivating food. 2.2.5 pik.ba: it is the Bosnian version of e-bay, and the first Bosnian website for buying and selling which aims at connecting the buyers and sellers in one place. It also includes options for renting and swapping the products available. 2.2.6 ekupon.ba: is a pioneer groupon website in B&H which features a daily deal on the best stuff to do, see, eat, and buy on 50%-90% discount and this way attracts a lot of people to buy that same product or service. 2.2.7 tajpi.ba: is a community based website where people ask questins and get answers from the members. This way they share information and collaborate by exchanging their knowledge, experiences and advice in their field. 3. METHODOLOGY The CC website development process described and explored in the here presented retrospective case study was a project started in February 2011 by the authors. The project was divided into six SDLC (System Development Life Cycle) phases: analysis, design, implementation/development, testing, installation/deployment and maintenance. The first month of the project was spent on planning the schedule for website development, evaluating the cost, and analyzing website requirements. Requirements’ gathering was conducted through the evaluation of existing collaborative consumption websites. Design of the website’s home page, as adjusted to the common trend by CC websites, was to present a user with an instructional video, registration and log in buttons, list of categories in the form of pictures, application for a newsletter, and advertisements. CC functions of the website which were to enable users to swap and rent items were specified into: registration form, log in, member account information, adding new items, message exchange for website users, member review upon offer acceptance, overview of items a member is offering and those they are seeking, automatic matching of items, separate overview of items rented, upgrading member’s status to premium member for a fee. Upon completion of the analysis phase it was concluded the optimal choice for website design and development was outsourcing. 590 �3.1 Addressing Research Sub-question R1 After initial research on the companies offering web design and website development, the following selection criteria was developed: cost of the service, time required to complete the project, communication – availability to meet in person and discuss requirements, references and portfolio – prior experience on similar projects, resources – availability of in-house team of developers, and bonus offers - suggestions for marketing, SEO, hosting offers, domain registration, affiliate marketing, etc. Requests for proposal were sent to five BH companies (denoted as C), one local freelancer, and also posted on freelancer.com. Table 1. represents their offers for each of the selection criteria. Table 1: Criteria used for website developer’s selection Criterion C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 BH freelancer freelancer .com Cost Average Low Average High Average Low Low Duration Average Average Average Long NS/NA Long Short Communic. In-person Online In-person In-person In-person In-person Online References Few Many Many Average Many Few Average Resources None Team Team Team Team 1 person 1 person Bonus offers None None Domain, affiliate marketing None NS/NA None None (Note: NS/NA – not specified or the company did not answer to the RFP) C3 (from now on mentioned in the text as the Developer) was chosen as the company to provide the website design and development. Reasons for the choice were that it was a company with several years of experience, with a fully functional team of designers and developers, who have presented to project owners their work on previous large projects, and were able to offer additional services, including full reliance on them for maintenance, hosting packages and affiliate marketing. 3.1.1 Project Schedule and Budgeting In the agreement with the Developer, the remaining phases of the SDLC were specified (Table 2). The duration of Design, Development and Testing phases for the project was 4 months - starting end of May 2011, ending beginning of October 2011. Website deployment was supposed to occur by the second week of October, to coincide it with the start of a new academic year at B&H universities. 591 �Table 2: Project’s work breakdown and schedule SDLC Phase Analysis Design Development Testing Deployment Tasks Project cost agreement Task scheduling Requirements clarification and detailing Website design Categories’ icons design Logo design Swap and rent modules Domain registration Software testing (throughout development by Developer) End-user testing Hosting package Making website available for public use Affiliate marketing, social networks’ ads Duration end of May – middle of June (15 days) middle of June – middle of July (1 month) middle of July – end of September (2.5 months) end of September (1 week) beginning of October (15 days) Total cost of the website was partitioned on individual website functions, i.e. modules. The payment method agreed upon was monthly installments. 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Project’s design phase kick-off date was end of May. Two meetings were held between project’s owners and the Developer’s designer to specify website design - webpage elements, colors, and text position. After three unsatisfactory solutions for home page design, final design was offered and accepted middle of July. A week into the development phase indications of project delay arose. The Developer notified that while there will be some work on the project in August, they have incurred other obligations which were more urgent for them. Till the end of July, three modules were completed. A module which followed was Adding Items (creating items and categories). The creation of this module extended to the whole month of August. Lack of communication during that period, private obligations from the owners’ side, the month of Ramadan, not organizing performance tracking meetings, and neglecting the work on this project from the Developer’s side, caused key changes and iterations in the development of this module. Beginning of September, a meeting was finally arranged to clarify requirements, go over business logic behind each of the functionalities, and discuss about corrections to user interfaces. Only a month remaining till the end of the development phase, the major modules for making the website operational were not even started. Nevertheless, project owners were assured the delivery date would be met. Due to the fact that only one month was left till the deadline, tension was high at both ends. It was agreed that end of September was the final deadline to start testing the existing modules. Testing had not been carried out at all from the owner’s side, given that the approach chosen by the Developer was waterfall SDLC approach; in this methodology one SDLC phase has to be completed in order to move into the next. 592 �The first end-user testing efforts caused emergence of ever more serious issues. It was evident project deadline was going to be broken. 4.1 Addressing Research Sub-question R2 End-users tested usability and functionality of the website in a scenario where it was assumed this website was present and available for use in B&H online market. Based on the results of end-user testing, it was determined the website was not ready to be put online for use. The development phase had to be extended. The problem was exacerbated when the testing process caused an unintentional change of the approach to website development. The Developer tried to hang on to the waterfall approach they found the most familiar. The owners adopted a practice of weekly testing efforts to keep track of the development progress, thus pushing towards a more rapid and agile, development approach. As a result, the Developer was simultaneously requested to complete the remaining modules, and they were provided a list of changes that needed to be made to the existing modules. Quality of delivered functions decreased, delivery dates were prolonged, and respect in communication on both sides was deteriorating. The diversion of approaches taken by the two sides caused the Developer to enter into multiple loops to complete the ever growing changes to the already existing modules, while never starting to work on new modules. In the meantime, internal changes and fractions happened in the Developer company, which reduced the development team to two persons. In addition, they were forced to delegate resources to other projects they were accepting. This resulted in only one person working partially on the CC website development project. Two months after the initial project deadline, both sides were bitter, distrustful and stressed out. The owners felt the Developer was not competent and did not put interest nor invest time into this particular project; on the other hand the Developer felt they were stretched to multiple sides, had company issues to deal with, the project was outgrowing itself and the actual costs were by far exceeding the initial price set. Communication plummeted, to the point where replies on both sides were either rude or not given at all. The situation culminated when beginning of December the Developer came with the suggestion to terminate the work on this project. A new deadline was set - 15 days from the meeting date in order to finish the the most essential functionalities. Despite the agreement, communication was again dissatisfactory, work lagged or was not being carried out according to specifications, and the deadline itself was again breached. It was finally obvious that no serious business could tolerate more delays. The Developer provided the following options for the project:    Option 1 – continue working with the same Developer till the project is completed Option 2 – owners keep the functionalities and design completed till that point (without the right to source code), and the Developer keeps the money paid till that point Option 3 – terminate the relationship, in which situation the Developer would keep the source code and design without the right to present or sell it to someone else, but would return the owners the money paid till that moment Option 1 was unacceptable to both sides. Option 2 was not the best for the owners since it would take a new programmer much longer to understand the code written by someone else 593 �than to write it from scratch. Therefore, Option 3 was chosen by the owners as the only solution. 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Implementing collaborative consumption technology in a small developing country, like Bosnia and Herzegovina, opens multiple possibilities. Several websites of collaborative nature already exist in BH, but the website which was to be built in the studied project was to abide to the true principles of collaborative consumption. In conclusion, let us outline the key sources of the project’s failure:           Client not taken seriously Unclear and not detailed system requirements Misunderstood system requirements Too much freedom handed over to developers – trust in their expertise Lack or improper communication between owners and developers Lack of periodic and constant activity progress check-up Insufficient resources planned for the project by developers Selection of an inappropriate system development approach Loss of motivation and resulting decrease in quality of work performed Project outgrowing itself, thus planned time and price In future work on this topic, what remains is answering the research sub-question R3. Valuable lessons were learned from embarking on this project and problems faced on it. In the next phase of this study, the CC project will be continued with applying the recommended and learned practices of website development, including: clear and thorough requirements specification, agile development methodology adoption (Bauer 2005, Dave 2011), frequent testing and continuous, regular activities tracking. REFERENCES Bauer, M. (2005) Successful web development http://www.sitepoint.com/successful-development/ methodologies article, URL Botsman, R. (2012) What’s Mine is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption. 2012. URL http://www.collaborativeconsumption.com. Botsman, R. and Rogers, R. “ What's Mine Is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption” Happer Collins, NY Dave, R. (2011) Web development methodologies: Agile vs. Waterfall, URL http://www.cmswire.com/cms/web-cms/web-development-methodologies-agile-vs-waterfall012266.php Ideas for modern living: collaborative consumption | Life and style | The Observer . 2012. URL: http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2011/jan/30/ideas-modern-living-collaborativeconsumption. 594 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1215 Title A name given to the resource Obstacles in collaborative consumption websites’ development: A case from Bosna and Herzegovina Author Author Merima, Bejtagic-Makic Abstract A summary of the resource. According to Rachel Botsman, a renowned social innovator, the 21st century will be characterized by collaborative consumption. It is a new mode of business backed up by network technologies and based on the ancient methods of trading by bartering and swapping. Collaborative consumption websites engage and specialize in information, service and goods sharing, swapping, renting, lending, and trading. The power of these new marketplaces is in changing the way people view ownership and consumption, alleviating the hardship of economic recession, freeing the flow of knowledge and information, and creating a business model which supports the reuse of goods and space for a greener world. The content of this research paper provides an understanding of the drivers for collaborative consumption technology in a developing country in economic recession time, precisely Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The key research question to be addressed in this study is: What are the issues faced in B&H when embarking on a collaborative consumption website development project? Keywords: collaborative consumption (CC), swapping, website development, green technologies, emerging technology issues, system requirements, case study, empirical approach, collaborative technologies Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),T Technology (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/851eccb9a7dacd493c86b0904777b66f.pdf 62dd2d83921da991bdb1407d32f3195a PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Akten, M. & Akten, S. (2011). The sustainable concept of Tourism; Example of Sarıgöl 1. Symposium of National Sarıgöl country and values, Sarıgöl. Büyükyeğen, G. (2008). Edirne city center and it’s close environment. The evaluation of recreational resource values in the context of sustainability, Zonguldak Karaelmas University Institute of scierse, Department of land scape architecture, Master’s Thesis, Bartın. Gezici, F. (1998). The Impact of tourism actions fort he purpose of sustainable regional development. A comparative research on Turkey. ITU the Institute of Science, Departmentof urban and regional planning, Istanbul. Newman, P. & Kenworhy, J. (1999). Sustainability and cities; overcoming, automobile, Dependence. Oral, S. & Şenbük, U. (1996). Structural evaluation of tourist regions in terms of sustainable tourism. 19. World Town Planning Day, Colloqium proceedings, MSU Broadcast part of the city and regional planning, Istanbul. Tozar, T. (2006). Ecological Planning methods developed for sustinability of natural Resources, Master’s Thesis, Yildiz Technical University, Institute of science, Department of Urban and regional planning, Istanbul. ACTM- Aydın Culture & Tourism Magazine, 2011, 2, 40-48 Economic Dimension Of The Environmental Policies Applied In Turkey And Its Potential Effects On Sustainable Development Mevlüt Karabiçak, Serpil Ağcakaya Abstract The purpose of the paper is to analyse the economic dimension of environmental policies still being applied in Turkey and to research the potential effects of sustainable development. In 1987 Bruntland Report was published by UN World Commission on Environment and Development and attention on sustainable development was attracted. In the aforementioned report, against the ever deteriorating environmental problems, the necessities of establishing the vital bridge between environmental development and economic development and the sustainability of development are accepted. The first precaution coming to mind for preventing environmental destructions that causes crucial costs for national economies is the efficient and productive use of current resources and the establishment of an optimal equilibrium between current and future generations in terms of the use of resources. Being sensitive in terms of the principle of sustainable development in the formation of environmental policies is accepted to be an important approach for the prevention of environment. Although the sustainable development endeavours cause significant costs, it is observed that new policies are constantly formed in terms of environment. In the scope of the paper, the potential effects of environmental policies that aim to decrease the negative effects created by the destruction of environment and to turn the world into a more habitable area on sustainable development are analysed through national and international data. 243 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.INTRODUCTION The subject of environment is the most essential and common problem of the whole world. This matter to great extend originates to excessive usage of factors. Environmental destruction particularly, during th recent years has shown the gradual increase, so that the whole living beings or lifeless creatures have been negatively effected. In one hand the necessary expenditures to be mad efor protecting the living standarts and hence, stil to raise it more and on the other hand aiming that each of these expenditures not to cause the mentioned environmental destruction. The necessity of establishing a multi directioned balances in between the production and consumption stands as a reality. This phenomenon brings forth the mutual influence of the lifeless and living beings to the present agenda and so has continiously been increasing the economical costs of the environmental protections. This point meanwhile, determines the borderlines of the environmental sciences as well. The wide pronounciation of the term environment was first met in daily languages of the communities at early 1970’s. At first glance the term environment may be considered to ben an easily understandable concept but it’s very complicated structure shows itself when carefully examined. Environmental pollution has both productional and consumptional dimensions. During the formation of these two phases, many harmful effluents gets produced and do spread around. Unacceptably high levels of such effluents and their contaminating effects getting into the air, soil and water and polluting the underground. So, all these do cause the increased environmental destruction. This destruction shows itself sometimes as like desert, drought, erosions, poverty, impropriety, negligence and irresponsibility. Environmental problems, nowadays have essentially changed its nature and have rather gained a global dimensions by passing over the national borders. Reducing the costs and relieving the negative pressures upon the sustainable developments needs a new approach towards the matter. This new approach can only be provided by international, national and regional collaborations. This study will cover how and what kind of method should be applied for avoidance of negative environmental effects but not reducing the social welfare and sustainable development what probable costs will be faced to and how these can be possibly met. 2.CONCEPTIONAL FRAME Environmental science can be accepted as a branch investigating and studying the mutual effects amoung the living beings and their surroundings and so putting up the obtained results to discussions. Ecology and the economy by some means are the concepts with in eachother. Ecology aims to utilize less of factors for protection of environment. The economy, however, is aiming for a higher level developments for higher prosperities. Henceforth, such sustainable development forms thee common denominator of the coincidence between these two concepts. The Brutland report about “our common future” defines the sustainable development as, to meet todays, requirements with out benefitting from the possibilities being planned to meet requirements of the future generations. (Gönel 2010, p.275)Another view for sustainable development is that it need to benefit from protecting the ecological processes and life supporting systems by means of obtaining a continious use of ecosystems and the genuses (Ertürk Hasan 2009, p.397) By this definition the economical development target was focused 244 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo to the point succeding on the potential economical growth whilist protecting the benefitted natural capital stock. (Dağdeviren 2003, p.143.) Sustainable development doesn’t only aims to form an environment that would be clean, safer and livable but also deals with the view that it should be more stable, healthful, prosperous and with higher living standarts, which suits well to human being. (Gönel 2010, p.285) Therefore, the borderlines of sustainable development is overapping or completing with the environmental protection standarts it is therefore possible to qualify the sustainable development as an environmental confidant. This environmental confidant development has the potential capability of going over the environmental problems and solve. This potential, along with bringing up the new growth sources as productivity can a pronovelty (newness), new markets, security and stability, effective use and optimal distrubution of these sources. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/36/10/48060835.pdf). 3.ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AND THE PROCESS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE Environmental problems are as old as the history of human being. As the use of sources started to increase along with the industrial revolution, which has caused the increased environmental destruction since then. The first signs of pollution was noticed in England. One of the pollution are as in England were rivers. England, therefore has taken actions against all kinds of river pollution forms by the law passed in 1876 (Burows 1980, p.158) The first warning about the possible global heat rise due to CO2 gas was made by Swedish scientist Svante Ahrrenius in 1898 but wasn’t recognised as a serious one. (Karbuz, 2002, p.9) The first human death disastors took place in the town of Donora (Penn) in 1948 and the other one in London in 1952 had shown the necessity to take precautions against the pollutions. (Turkman 2000, p.36) Some scientists and thinkers have expressed their views about the possible great catastrophies along with the continued environmental destructions, which all were initiated by spoiling the natural structure by human race since 1960’s. Paul Erlich’s publication in 1968 named “population bomb” and Rachel Garson’s book of “silint spring” 1962 are example of the releavant problems. In 1968 Unesco called upon a conference “UN Biosphere Conference” by which, the first steps fort he ecologically sustainable development were taken. 1972 is another turning over point on this particular activities. A meeting was held in Stockholm with 114 participant countries. (Karbuz, 2002, p.9) The most important result obtained from this conference was the common approach shown by the participating countries of different regimes and development levels fort he point of environmental responsibilities. The markedly expressed principal idea at this conference was, tol ive in an environment that would most suit too human honour and good health (Ertürk, 2009, p.234) Another important result was “Mediterrenean action plan”, along with the warnings of environmental consciousness at Stockholm conference, 16 participiant mediterrenean countries have approved the action plan to save mediterrenean sea from the pollution (Görmez 2003, p.86-87) The worlds environment and the development comission was formed in 1983 under the chairmanship of GRO Harlem, the prime minister of Norway and had published a report with the topic of “Our common future” which had created a great interest. (Uslu, 1990, p.53) ((http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission) Fallowingly, a top meeting took place in Rio de Jenerio in 11.02.1992 where, the agende 21 of this meeting had consisted of 800 pages in 40 chapters. After this conference total of 165 countries signed in 1993 the “Biological Assortment or variety” agreement. In 1994, 150 countries signed “The climatic 245 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo changes environmental agreement” which led to the formation of United nations sustainable development commission. (Gönel, 2010, p.290) In 1997, Rio +5 conference was held with rather lesser attendance and not much of sufficient progress could be achieved on the above mentioned development. Again in 1997, the Kyoto protocol was found acceptable in Kyoto and was offered to the signitures in 1998 in New York, but somehow by the delays of USA, Russia and China could become effective on Feb 15,2005. The second top meeting for sustainable development was held in Johannesburg from Aug 26 to Sept. 4, 2005. More than 100 participations from the presidential or ministerial levels along with many civil public organizations and employer representatives was achieved. (Gönel, 2010, p.291)After this meeting two basic documents came out. One was the political proclomation and the other was the implementation plan. In this meeting 5 very important decisions were taken in the fields of water projects, energy, health, agriculture, biological variations and the protection of ecosystem administrations. (Karabıçak Armağan 2004, p.212) In 2007, Lula Silva, the president of Brazil, in his speech to UN General Assembly made an offer to hold a global top meeting Rio+20 to discuss the subjects about the sustainable developments in the world. His offer was approved on Dec. 24.2009 by the UN general assembly and the date was set for June 20-22.2012. The four points to be focused in this meeting are ; (http://www.mfa.gov.tr/uluslararasi-cevre-konulari.tr.mfa -To review promises(engagements) -The new problems arouse -Struggles against poverty and the gren economy by means of sustainable development -Associational frames for sustainable development The Rio +20 UN sustainable development conference scheduled to be held in June 20-22. 2012 is actually an indication of the sensibility and the will to promote the mentioned matters. (http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20/index.html). In Turkey too, under the responsibility and coordination of the ministry of development those Project activities within the framework of Turkey’s supportive projects to the preparations for Rio+20 conference and on the subjects of fortifying the systems of protected areas of Turkey, sea and the protected seaside areas to be made easier fort he continuation. (http://www.undp.org.tr/Gozlem3.aspx?WebSayfaNo=3510). In this context a meeting was held in Ankara on Feb. 22.2012 on the sustainable development prosessing the future (http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetayHYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"&HYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"Id=520). 4.ECONOMICAL DIMENSIONS OF ENVİRONMENTAL PROTECTION POLICIES TO BE IMPLEMENTED AND IT’S RELATION TO DEVELOPMENT In the literature of economy it was admitted that human needs are ever lasting but are limited for the sources to meet these requirements. So it seems possible to meet these requirements with such sources. Therefore, the necessity for all sorts of technological and technical effectiveness taken under considerations fort he usage of natural resource. Again the mentioned effectiveness here must coincide with the effectiveness in the consumption and in the distribution of the sources. The effective and reasonable utilisation of sources carries up the prosperity to the agenda. The development of a community can olnly be by maximizing the social relief and prosperity. Promoting this social prosperity with out any reduction leads 246 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the fact that a balance must be built between the existing and future generations. In our times it is believed that this balance can only be provided with the principles of sustainable development. Basic problem of the underdeveloped countries is too crowded population and the poverty. Communities through out the history and before the industrial terms and those of industrialized communities the fact of population had the recycling effects qualitatively and quantitatively over the economy. Of course these recyclines and transformations in economy is affecting the structure of population. The volume of population is an indicator affecting upon the production, division, consumption and also gets affected itself from these facts. (Küçükkalay, Türkcan, 2008, p.89) Over population adversly affects the distribution ofi income and promoting the excessive use of sources. This situation causes the in effectiveness among the production consumption and sharing and eventually negatively effects upon the living quality. Therefore the importance of development by means of economy which basicly measures the growing problems of the countries has been dominant factor in our days. To protect the level of prosperity of developed countries and overcoming the prolonged revolving poverty of the poor countries can only be realized by sustainable developments. According to the thesis of povertytrap the reason why some countries are poor is just because they’re poor. In this povertytrap there is a steady state where per capita and per outputs are low. Therefore, whenever such a poor country intends to break this chain falls back into the same circle. (Ünsal 2007, p.179) United Nations development program is taking two indexes under consideration one is human poverty index and the other one is human development index. Human development index is the one that UNDP has produced aiming to show the development differences of the nations in international level. Such dimensions like health, education, living standarts had all been added to this index. For obtaining an index, the life expectancy at birth representing the health, the mean years of schooling represents expected years of schooling and per GNDP used for representing the living standarts. (http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistiks/hdi/ Studying datum given in Table 1 here below, the living standart gross national income per capita is 13559 USD, which is 62% high than Bosnia Herzegovina while the life expectancy at birth is 4% and expected years of schooling is 10% lower. Mean years of schooling in Bosnia is 2,2 years more than Turkey with the average of 8,7 years. Additionally human development index in Bosnia Herzegovina is 0,710 higher than Turkey. World Bank uses 1 USD/day measures to determine the level of poorness. Nowadays 1,2 billion people are living below this amount. Another measure is food energy method. By this internationally accepted method, the minimum level of calories determined but the consumption of other than foods were omitted. (Cepni 2010, p.201) Table 1. Fixed Values Used in Human Development Index Health Edication Living Standards Turkey (2010) Life Expectancy At Birth 72,7 Mean Years Of Schoolling 6,5 Espected Years Of 11,8 Schoolling Gross National İncome Per 13.359 $ Capita Human Development Index 247 0,679 Bosnia Herzegovina (2010) 75,5 8,7 13,0 8.222 $ 0,710 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Source:http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistiks/hdi;http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi/. (http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table1_reprint.pdf . / ; Economical growth has a numerical properties expressing income per capita and physical increases in production where as the economical development includes not only numerical factors but also qualitative elements. In order to mention about the development there must be an improvment in processing rules and in quality levels of foundation and establishments. (Çepni, 2010 ; p.199) Nowadays the occurances of some negative progress about the environmental protection are directing the countries and communities to behave more sensitively. Instead of the developments with in definite borders and careless use of sources such a sustainable development that would cover the coming generations was found to bee more acceptable view all over the world. Sustainable development therefore is the kind that covers the economy, environment and the communities together. Here the fundamentual problem is the excess financial burdens that sustainable development policies may cause. There are various opinions about the mentioned financial costs. Whilst the traditional approaches are rather distant on sustainability, the environmentalists are rather quite insistant. There are some views stating the possibilities of setting a harmonious acceptence between these two views. The aims of sustainable development aren’t too far from the economical development targets. Actually, the object of sustainable development is simply to look after an adjustment or harmony between the economical requests and conveying capacity of ecosystems. (Gönel, 200, p.276) If such an adjustment could be realized in all countries, then, both the global rivalry will not be adversly affected by these policies and non of the economical stability will be spoiled or destroyed. Therefore, no social prosperity decrease. To set up such a harmony definitely is diffucult but is never impossible. Minimising the environmental costs and converting the negativities to adventages forms firstly will depend upon the conversion of negative extroverts into introvert which may form during the production. Improving the sustainable living qualities, determining and implementing the methods would eradicate the negativies caused by the production and consumptional activities however what may be nede to provide this is the conformity between the targets desired to reach and the chosen instruments. (Toprak:2006, p.151); (Dağdemir:2003, p.141-155); (Çokgezen, 2007:102). Have been able to maintion about some principles for the solution of existing environmental problems within the sustainablity. These principles are; “sustainable developments”, “the polluatant pays”, “precaution”, collabration complementary high level protections, avoidance and avoidance at source. 4.1.The Principle of Sustainable Development The essential projection point of this principle is the relation of environmental problems with the economical development. Environmental effluent Have a certain recyling (revaluation) capacity, which peovides appriciable savings in the utilization of natural sources. The ecological and natural living transformation gets negatively affected when the environment receives rapid pollution over the recyling capacity. (Başol and others.2007, p.163) The additional factors like over population migration problems, unorganized urbanization, increased traffic jams, earthquakes, wars, social disorders and complications have all great additional negativity to the ones mentioned above. Nowadays civil urbanization ratio is increasing rapidly in great number of countries and the population density gets higher in bigger towns. This unbalanced distribution of population leads to infrastructural insufficiency and so to over usage of sources will end up with increased pollution. 248 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo First of all the new technologies are needed for setting a suitable environmental protection policy that would match to sustainable development principles. This can only be realized by some attentive plans or precautions. For example, millious of wehicles nowadays are moving around all round the world. Additional milllions are joining them everyday. By charging higher taxes for those vehicles harmful to the environment and lesser taxes for unharmful to the environment and lesser taxes for unharmful ones might be the collobarative support of research and development centers the minimisation of these negative effects upon the environment can reasonably be reduced. We can classify the renovations as renevals of products, processes and organisations. The first two are expressed as technological renevals. The organisational one can be taken as example to “just in time” renewal principles. Through the aid of technological renevations improved production schemes and new methods can be developed. Technological renovations, whilist making thee new products more populer, it may also become a reason fort he birth of a sector. It’s very important to select the most suitable one among the alternative technologies. Developing countries can not explore new Technologies but can obtain them through the transferances. (Kaya, 2008. p.281) but these developed countries don’t give chance to them for such transferance of new Technologies. Insufficient Technologies may have negative effects upon the environmental protection, that is why many of those underdeveloped countries become rather a field or source of poluution. The foremost duties about the sustainable developments are up to the central and local authorities. Uncontrolled, unhealthful and rapid civil urbanisation results in increased squatters shacks round the suburban areas. A great deal of sharing the benefits due to rapid urbanisation causes the destruction of historical background and sites of the town.This excess and denser growth of inhabitant areas loose their gren nature and turno ut to be a mass of concrete structures. Insufficiency of present technical and social infrastructure creates very unhealty appearence (Türkmen 2000, p.140). Local authorities should take necessary precaution mutually with central authorities, civillion social and Professional organisations to make their towns a beter place to live in. Some randomly made construction plan check ups and modifications have been creating very unlucky effects upon historical and cultural structure of the towns. Environmental and touristic sites get badly and irrevocably harmed by such wrong administrations. Traffic jam is another negative factor in sustainable developments. Thousands of people are loosing their lives and wasted in Turkey and all around the world. Better results can be obtained if the suitable correction can be made infrastructures of transportational fascilities be improved and when the proper transference of existing usable sources be realized. Earthquakes cause tremendous collapses and lose of lives all over the world. Those can save themselves may have psychological disorders. So, careful studies and calculations of the constructions and beter selection and use of good quality materials will provide strong fascilities. This will avoid the lose of many lives and sarrowness. Health is one of the indicator to emphesise the importance of sustainable development. For a helaty community a clean enviroment is firstly needed. Living in a clean, neat media does increase the quality of life. Lesser expenditures for health increases communal savings, such savings will help the development of the countries progresses and to have a prosperous life. World peace is the subject that can be benefited from to obtain best results in sustainable developments.No natural destruction can compete with the pollution may be caused by the wars. The matter of armaments and wars were always neglected to mention in the environmental literatures by which they do put forward their views by all chance about the environmental protection. Neverthless should those invested billions of dollars for armaments 249 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo be allocated to help settling peace, protecting cultural values and for an honourable human living, there would remain no poverty, hungerness and pollution all over the world. Those realistic countries, being aware of loses due to wars always stay away from supporting, feding or provking the terrorism. This takes the human being to peace and confidence. 4.2.Who Polluts Will Pay Principle Environmental cost inclusively to turn the responsibility and duty of preventing the pollution over to the pollutant by charcing the total cost of the use of natural sources. However, its not always possible to identify the pollutant. That’s why a great potion of the pollution cost are rather made paid by the public through the taxes. For instance, Turkey being an OECD member has been having maximum revenue through the taxes relevant to environment, that 4,8% GNDP of Turkey and 25% of the total income taxes weren’t set up for environmental purposes. Neverthless the ratio of expenditures fort he prevention of pollutions to GNDP, 1,1%could hardly be increased to 1,2%. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/17/42198785.pdf, p.21) It’s rather diffucult to detect or identify the individuals causing the pollutions. There is a need for very precise good detection network. To realize such an attempt, public should be with reasonable education conscious, capable of preserving his civil rights an be dynamic ones. There should be no pressure on dense population and poverty, as otherwise the problem of hunger will exist in such a community. If the individuals are having some fear and anxiousness for their survivals, environmental problems are then nothing more than a fantastic matter for them. Therefore the subject sustainable development is definitely an ethical concept. Communities or individuals must have ethical responsibilities that not look after only fort he prosperities of their own groups but must for those who have no support and uncapable of expressing themselves. 4.3.Precaution and Prevention Principle Necessary precaoutions must be taken before making any decisions and testing for probable reactions may arise from such decisions. All precautions no matter how effective they may be won’t be sufficient once the environmental destruction occurs. 4.4.Completing and Collaboration Principles Environmental protection must be in harmony with other policies and must go for collaboration in all fields when necessary. But, reducing the globally occured pollutions it is a must to have an international colaboration. The dimensions of such international collaborations and sharing the attendances rather depends on the countries capacity in creating Technologies and their usage. 4.5.High Level Protection Principles When taking any kind of decision the authorised unit or societies must take the environmental policies under considerations. Law makers should also obey these rules as well. 4.6.Prevention at Source Principle 250 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Environmental harms must be readily prevented at source, otherwise there will be not much meaning once the damage occurs. For example, one of the most important subject of Turkey is forest fires. The main point about such fires is not to have the start of such fires because the useful flora and wildlife can nnot be reobtainable. Such fire does not only destroy the nature, but burns those inhabitants site sor villages. Billions of tl.s worthed goods get simply lost. Turkish development policies from the planning period to present times has shown a progress towards the sustainable development with in the dimensions of economy environment and community activities. In spite of the marked progresses achieved in this field, the observation and evaluations of sustainable developments have remained limited. Some small scale local studies were realized on this subject neverthless the need preparing Turkey’s national sustainable development indication set and index is stil valid. 5.SUMMARY The most essential principle in environmental protection is to provide proper utilisation of natural sources in right balance and to look after and pressure rightfull share among the generation. Therefore, it is a must to seriously accept research and developments for introducing new Technologies into the circulation. Must be precise to benefit from the recycling possibilities for effluents coming from the productions and to aim to edible sources and use the sources but not finish. Environmental and economical policies those will provide the sustainability must take over a dominant role. Excessive productions and selfishness in consumptions will never be ethical and will also maket he most reasonably applicable policies invalid about the environmental protection. The complementary policies which the international collaborations and harmony and will fallowing the effectiveness of the appropriate distrubution of the sources, productions and consumptions seems to give very meaningful results and high level protective precautions are thought to be a fruitful and will be preventive against the probable environmental problems right at the source before coming into being fort he global effectiveness of the sustainable development policies and to transfer a livable environment to the generations. An intelligance having the power and desire to live in a clean and neat surroundings snd also fighting against all sorts of pollutions in the world must build its soverignty all over the world. BIBLIOGRAPHY BAŞOL, Koray, DURMAN, Mustafa, ÖNDER, Hüseyin (2007), Doğal Kaynakların ve Çevrenin Ekonomik Analizi, Alfa Aktüel, Bursa. BURROWS, Paul (1980), The Economic Theory of Pollution Control, First MIT Press Edition Cambridge, Massachusetts. ÇEPNİ, Elif (2010), Ekonomik Göstergeler ve İstatistikler Rehberi, Seçkin Yayınevi, Ankara. ÇOKGEZEN, Jale (2007), “Avrupa Birliği Çevre Politikası ve Türkiye”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt XXIII, Sayı 2. DAĞDEMİR, Özcan (2003), Çevre Sorunlarına Ekonomik Yaklaşımlar ve Optimal Politika Arayışları, Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara, Kasım. DOĞANER GÖNEL, Feride (2010), Kalkınma Ekonomisi, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara. 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TOPRAK, Düriye (2006), “Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Çerçevesinde Çevre Politikaları ve Mali Araçlar”, SDÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Yıl:2, Sayı:4. TÜRKMAN, Ayşen (2000), Yaşanabilir Bir Çevre İçin, Dokuz Eylül Yayınları, İzmir. USLU, Orhan (1990), Sanayileşme ve Kentleşmenin Getirdiği Çevre Sorunları, Sürekli ve Dengeli Kalkınma Açısından Bir Tartışma”, Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Konferansı, Türkiye Çevre Sorunları Vakfı, Önder Matbaa, Ankara. ÜNSAL, Erdal M. (2007), İktisadi Büyüme, İmaj Yayınları, Ankara. http://www.mfa.gov.tr/uluslararasi-cevre-konulari.tr.mfa. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/36/10/48060835.pdf. http://www.undp.org.tr/Gozlem3.aspx?WebSayfaNo=3510. http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20/index.html. http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetayHYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"&HYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"Id=520. http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistiks/hdi/. http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table1_reprint.pdf. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/17/42198785.pdf . 252 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1330 Title A name given to the resource Economic Dimension Of The Environmental Policies Applied In Turkey And Its Potential Effects On Sustainable Development Author Author Mevlüt , Karabiçak Abstract A summary of the resource. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the economic dimension of environmental policies still being applied in Turkey and to research the potential effects of sustainable development. In 1987 Bruntland Report was published by UN World Commission on Environment and Development and attention on sustainable development was attracted. In the aforementioned report, against the ever deteriorating environmental problems, the necessities of establishing the vital bridge between environmental development and economic development and the sustainability of development are accepted. The first precaution coming to mind for preventing environmental destructions that causes crucial costs for national economies is the efficient and productive use of current resources and the establishment of an optimal equilibrium between current and future generations in terms of the use of resources. Being sensitive in terms of the principle of sustainable development in the formation of environmental policies is accepted to be an important approach for the prevention of environment. Although the sustainable development endeavours cause significant costs, it is observed that new policies are constantly formed in terms of environment. In the scope of the paper, the potential effects of environmental policies that aim to decrease the negative effects created by the destruction of environment and to turn the world into a more habitable area on sustainable development are analysed through national and international data Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8a6258aa52ea36a84a452d4219ae05f0.pdf 1d79ee4ae47764a9a65d35d6b6194b8b PDF Text Text Offline Signature Recognition Using Machine Learning Mohammad Ikhsan Bin Zakaria, GunayKarli Engineering and Information Technologies, International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. E-mails: mohammad.ihsan.z@gmail.com, gkarli@ibu.edu.ba Abstract Biometric behavior can be recognized through the signature behavior of a person. It is mostly used for authorization and authentication in legal documentation papers. Signature recognition has two ways of verification, dynamic or online recognition and static or offline recognition. In this paper we use offline recognition to analyze signature images using Artificial Neural Network. We used mark minutia masking as the feature extraction. We proposed offline signature recognition using machine learning with supervised learning algorithm. The aim of using artificial neural network is to automatically find signatures that match to the owners of the signatures. Based on our evaluation, after we compared feed forward backpropagation and other supervised learning network such cascade-forward network, it revealed cascade-forward shown the highest accuracy100 % with low mean square error 0. Keywords: biometric, offline signature, machine learning 1.INTRODUCTION Offline signature recognition is the technique to prevent forgery against security issue on legal documentation papers. In many legal companies they use this system to protect their customers. The process of gathering signature image is done by taking signatures from volunteers to sign on papers for ten times and we take that signatures scan to the computer and format as 200 dpi into gray scale image format. Reducing noisy and mark minutia arethe difficult tasks here, because besides we have to keep the information of signature images as valid as we can. There are few methods that applied offline signature recognition such as signature region of interest using auto cropping [1]. The signature images will be cleaned up from unwanted space or image around signatures. In this method the authors proposed image auto cropping as it is mentioned on image normalization. In [2] they proposed offline signature recognition and verification scheme which is based on extraction of several features including one hybrid set from the input signature and compare them with the already forms. In feature extraction [2] they used Euclidean distances from vertical and horizontal sectioning of signature. In [3] they proposed offline handwritten signature recognition which is trained in low-resolution scanned signature images using learning vector quantization classifier. The accuracy rate [3] was 98% for random test set of 150 handwritten signature images of 10 1 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo persons. Offline signature recognition and verification [4] based on four speed stroke was proposed. In [4] they used stroke angle and stroke speed as feature extraction. This paper is organized into five sessions. The following is an introduction of the topic in this session 1, session 2 describes the proposed method, in session 3 describe signature image preprocessing and feature extraction, in session 4 describes implementation, results. In final session describes conclusion. 2.SIGNATURE IMAGE PREPROCESSING In this paper signature image preprocessing can be done in six steps as follows: (1) Histogram Equalization (2) Fourier Transform (3) Binarization (4) Signature Direction (5) Region of Interest (ROI) Area and (6) Thinning. Thinning image process is one most particular step in this stage, because thinning produces single layer line of signature. Minutia marking stage needs thinning before applying bifurcation skim step. Signature image preprocessing is influenced by the original which was taken using colors pen. Thinning process produces skeleton of signature which has single-pixel image. 2.1. Minutia Marking Feature Extraction During image preprocessing, we include minutia marking as our feature extraction; here the mask digit skimmed all possible digits with 1s and 0s value. We carried out minutia marking to state image bifurcation and decision or termination. In general we have 3x3 matrices, if the central pixel is one and have exactly three one-value neighbors; the central pixel is a ridge branch. If the central pixel is one and has only one-value neighbor, then the central pixel is a ridge ending [5].Using minutia detection on the binary skeleton would be performed by labeling as minutiae pixels which is cross number (CN). Some methods consider the pixels which CN >= 3 correspond to bifurcation as shown in figure 1 (a) or if CN = 2 it correspond to ridge ending[5], [6]. (a) (b) (c) Figure 1: (a) Bifurcation (b) Termination (c) Triple counting branch Figure 1 (c) describes the special case which a genuine branch is triple counted. If both uppermost pixel with value 1 and the rightmost in same 3x3 block has pixel 1, so the two pixels are marked as the braches [6]. All three figures 1 (a), 1 (b) and 1 (c) are filtered using bifurcation template. Ridge thinning signature images are filtered using this bifurcation masking. In [5] discussed about mark minutia extraction. The bifurcation template is used to cover all possible high bit 1s and eliminate 0s bit after thinning process. Basically CN for pixel P in bifurcation template is in [5] and shown in figure 2 CN is estimated using equation (1). 2 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 2: Basic format CN for P (1) Where Pi is the bi-level pixel value in the neighborhood of P with Pi = 0s or 1s and P1 = P9. 3. IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS In implementation we used Artificial Neural Network supervised learning to classify signature images that are given in training and we tested to find the match of signatures and the owners. We evaluated the result in testing session. The experimental platform is the Intel dual core T3400 2.10GHz, 4 GB RAM, Windows 7 and the software is MATLAB 7.0.0.199 (R.14). On the first part of training and testing, we experimented feed-forward backpropagation and then followed by other supervised learning network such as Cascadeforward network, Elman Recurrent network and Learning vector quantization. 3.1. Proposed Method The offline signature recognition using machine learning or Artificial Neural Network as proposed method in this study is illustrated in figure 3. Figure 3: Block diagram of proposed method The first step in the proposed method deals with collecting of signatures and scanned them, the second step describes signature image preprocessing in session 2. The third step describes feature extraction, in this step we used minutia marking. The final step describes the signatures classification processing using feed-forward backpropagation, cascade-forward network, Elman recurrent network and learning vector network. One of the sample testing results for each classification neurons are plotted in figure 4. Original or genuine signatures 3 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo were collected from 30 students at International Burch University; each student gave 10 signatures samples. After converting 300 signatures into gray scale format, we divided them into 300 single signature images. The file was analyzed for neuron classification session. The following session describes ANN classification and testing results. 3.2. Feed-forward Backpropagation Network (newff) In this experiment we used feed-forward backpropagation network to calculate mean square error as the measurement for performance on the neural networks. We also consider the influence of training algorithm and transfer function which can change the approximation of recognized signatures. In figure 4 (a) shows the example of testing results. In that testing session we obtained combination of attributes such as number of inputs, hidden layers, training algorithm and transfer function. It was the highest accuracy 66.6667 % and the lowest mse 0.4286. Table 1 shows the attributes training algorithm and transfer function influenced the final result of testing. The biggernumber of hidden layers with different combination of transfer functions, the bigger time it took the machine to analyze. Moreover, number of hidden layer and combination of transfer functions tansig or logsig did not make big changes or differences for accuracy rate. The lower result of mean square error, the higher the rate of accuracy we got. However the results of neural network testing were not precisely matched but we rounded into the nearest integers. After integers are rounded and there were compared with the predicted integers or classes. Table 1 Testing on Feed-forward Backpropagation Networks 4 Input Architecture of NN Training Algorithm Transfer Function MSE Accuracy 10 10-1 traingdm logsig, purelin 0.714 3 61.9048 % 10 10-1 traingdm tansig, purelin 0.571 4 57.1429 % 10 10-1 traingdx tansig, purelin 0.571 4 57.1429 % 10 10-10-1 traingdm tansig, logsig, purelin 0.476 2 66.6667 % 10 10-10-1 traingdx tansig, logsig, purelin 0.476 2 66.6667 % 20 20-10-10-1 traingdm tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.619 0 52.3810 % 20 20-10-10-1 traingdx tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.714 3 66.6667 % �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 20 20-10-10-1 traingdm logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.619 0 52.3810 % 20 20-10-10-1 traingdx logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.428 6 66.6667 % The performance of training is influenced by number of hidden layers, training algorithm, learning methods. Generally,mseis calculated in MATLAB using logic below. In equation (2) it is just additional description of calculating mse using MATLAB. In equation (3), we used the logic to compare between target output and actual output. We calculate the integers in target output that are larger or equal to actual output and converted them into 1s. (2) ; ; (3) 3.3. Cascade-forward Network (newcf) Table 2 shows training and testing using cascade-forward networks, we calculated the mseto find the significant error during our testing. Table 2 Testing Cascade-forward Networks Input Architecture of NN Training Algorith m Transfer Function MSE Accuracy 10 10-1 trainlm logsig, purelin 0.4286 71.4286 % 10 10-1 trainlm tansig, purelin 0.4762 66.6667 % 10 10-1 trainbfg tansig, purelin 0.4286 57.1429 % 10 10-10-1 trainlm tansig, logsig, purelin 0.3810 76.1905 % 10 10-10-1 trainbfg tansig, logsig, purelin 0.5238 61.9048 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainlm tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.0952 90.4762 % 5 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 20 20-10-10-1 trainbfg tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.5238 61.9048 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainbfg logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.4762 52.3810 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainlm logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0 100 % Our attributes in table 2 are training algorithm trainlm and trainbfg, where during testing session trainbfg spent more time than trainlm to find output. In final testing we obtained 20 inputs with two hidden layers and tansig as transfer function, we got 100 % matched in accuracy rate and 0 in mse error. Thus we concluded that the lowest mse in this network produced the highest accuracy we got. However, mse does not always affect the changes of accuracy rate or neural network output. It is because the output of neurons is not always precise. As a sample of training and testing, figure 4 (b) shows testing result. Figure 4 (b) shows the testing result with mse 0.4286 and accuracy rate was 71.4286 %. 3.4. Elman Recurrent Network (newelm) The basic structure table in Elman networks is the same as previous networks in feed-forward backpropagation and cascade-forward networks as shows in table 3. Table 3 Testing on Elman Recurrent Network 6 Input Architecture of NN Training Algorithm Transfer Function MSE Accuracy 10 10-1 trainlm logsig, purelin 0.4286 57.1429 % 10 10-1 trainlm tansig, purelin 0.1429 85.7143 % 10 10-1 trainbfg tansig, purelin 0.6190 66.6667 % 10 10-10-1 trainlm tansig, logsig, purelin 0.8095 71.4286 % 10 10-10-1 trainbfg tansig, logsig, purelin 0.4286 71.4286 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainlm tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.7143 57.1429 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainbfg tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.7143 42.8571 % �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 20 20-10-10-1 trainlm logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.0476 95.2381 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainbfg logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.4762 95.2381 % In this experiment the lowest mse is 0.0476 and the highest accuracy is 95.2381 %. From table 3 shows that there are two highest accuracy rates but with difference mse, thus the best output is the one that has lower mse error, even though it has same accuracy and uses same inputs, hidden layer but different training algorithms. Trainlm shows the lowest mse result. As a sample of testing session in this network, figure 4 (c) shows 71.4286 % accuracy and 0.8095 mse. 3.5. Learning Vector Quantization (newlvq) In learning vector quantization, the hidden layer value has to be positive integers so it became limited for us to analyze. Relating to the classes, we provided 21 classes of signatures. We trained 105 signatures and we tested using 21 signatures. In excel file we put addition column as the name of each classes such as class 1 has five 1s, class 2 has five 2s and so on. So here we provided different kind of table which consists only training algorithm, mse and efficiency. Table 4 Training and testing newlvq No. Hidden Neurons Class Percentages Training Algorithm MSE Accuracy 10 .6 .4 learnlv2 0.4286 71.4286 % 20 .6 .4 learnlv2 0.4286 71.4286 % 10 .6 .4 learnlv1 0.4286 71.4286 % 20 .6 .4 learnlv1 0.4286 71.4286 % 10 .8 .2 learnlv2 0.4286 71.4286 % 10 .8 .2 learnlv1 0.4286 71.4286 % Table 4 (d) illustrates combination of learning algorithm, typical of classes and number of hidden neurons. The results show us, there are no significant changes during testing either 7 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo using learnlvq1 or learnlvq2 and hidden neurons. Even though, we combined all possible values. Thus learning vector quantization gave the highest accuracy 71.4286 % with 0.4286 mse. (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 4: (a) Feed-forward backpropagation, (b) Cascade-forward, (c) Elman Recurrent (d) Learning Vector Quantization 4. CONCLUSION Based on experiments in previous chapter, we can conclude few points which related to the results. The highest accuracy in feed-forward backpropagation testing result was 66.6667 % and the lowest mse in that network was 0.4286. In cascade-forward network testing, the highest accuracy rate was 100 % and the lowest mse in that testing was 0. Moreover, when we tested Elman, the highest accuracy in that testing network was 95.2381 % and mse was 0.0476.On the other hand, learning vector quantization network has some differences in attributes. For instance, we used learnlv1 or learnlv2 as learning algorithm and compet as training algorithm, so we don’t compare this network with other three network algorithms in previous evaluation. The highest accuracy in learning vector quantization was 71.4286 % with 0.4286 mse. Thus cascade forward network was the best fit in this method, because the network produced 0 errors and 100 % accuracy with 20 inputs. REFERENCES Souvola, J. &Pietikainen, M. (2000), Adoptive document image binarization, The Journal of The Pattern Recognition Society, page 225-236. Bhuyan, M., Sarma, K. K., & Das, H. (2010). Signature Recognition and Verification using Hybrid Features and Clustered Artificial Neural Network (ANN). International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering. 8 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Khuwaja, G. A. &Laghari, M. S. (2011). Offline Handwritten Signature Recognition. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 59. Basavaraj, L. &Sudhaker Samuel, R.D. (2009). Offline-line Signature Verification and Recognition: An Approach Based on Four Speed Stroke Angle. International Journal of Recent Trends in Engineering, Vol 2. Zhao, F., & Tang, X. (2006). Preprocessing and postprocessing for skeleton-based fingerprint minutiae extraction, Pattern Recognition 40 (2007) 1270 – 1281, The Journal of Pattern Recognition Society. Zhili, W. (2002). Fingerprint Recognition. Unpublished Bachelor’s Thesis, Hong Kong Baptist University. A Case Study of Probit Model Analysis of Factors Affecting Consumption of Packed and Unpacked Milk in Turkey Meral Uzunoz1, Yasar Akcay2 1Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics, Turkey 2Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences Department of Economics, Turkey E-mails: meral.uzunoz@gop.edu.tr,yasar.akcay@gop.edu.tr Abstract This paper focused on the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk in Sivas, Turkey. The data were collected from 300 consumers by using face to face survey technique. Binary probit model has been used to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting milk consumption of households. According to empirical results, consumers with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. The majority of consumers reads the contents of packed milk and is affected by safety food in their shopping preferences. Keywords: Milk consumption, Consumer preferences, Binary probit model 9 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1142 Title A name given to the resource Offline Signature Recognition Using Machine Learning Author Author Mohammad Ikhsan, Bin Zakaria Gunay, Karli Abstract A summary of the resource. Biometric behavior can be recognized through the signature behavior of a person. It is mostly used for authorization and authentication in legal documentation papers. Signature recognition has two ways of verification, dynamic or online recognition and static or offline recognition. In this paper we use offline recognition to analyze signature images using Artificial Neural Network. We used mark minutia masking as the feature extraction. We proposed offline signature recognition using machine learning with supervised learning algorithm. The aim of using artificial neural network is to automatically find signatures that match to the owners of the signatures. Based on our evaluation, after we compared feed forward backpropagation and other supervised learning network such cascade-forward network, it revealed cascade-forward shown the highest accuracy100 % with low mean square error 0. Keywords: biometric, offline signature, machine learning Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),T Technology (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/27988e8de5c88dde9e43f9bd2e40268f.pdf 9017381796b1f7c1c00f6f74a633093e PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dudu Evren, Ü., Ç. Kanlıtepe, C. Çıracı, G. Dönmez, 2001. Tuz Göl,’nden (Konya-Türkiye) izole edilen Dunaliella türlerinin gliserol üretim kapasitesinin belirlenmesi. Ege Üniversitesi Su Ürünleri Dergisi, 1. Alg Teknoloji Sempozyumu p, 225-232 (In Turkish). Durmaz, Y., Gökpınar Ş., 2006. Dunaliella salina (Chlorophyceae) Büyümesi Üzerine Tuzluluğun Etkileri. E.Ü. Su Ürünleri Dergisi, pp:121-124. Garcia, F., Freile-Pelegrin, Y., Robledo, D., 2007. Physilogical characterization of Dunaliella sp. (Chlorophyta, Volvocales) from Yucatan, Mexico. Bioresource Technology,pp:1359-1365 Javor, B., 1989. Hypersaline Enviroments: Microbiology and Biogeochemistry. 1st Edn., Springer-Verlag, New York, pp:328. Lamers, P.P., Janssen, M., De Vos, C.H.R., Bino, J.R. and Wijffels, R.H. 2008. Exploring and exploiting carotenoid accumulation in Dunaliella salina for cell-factory applications. Cell Press, pp:631. Kaçka, A., Dönmez, G., 2008. Isolation of Dunaliella spp. from a hypersaline lake and their ability to accumulate glyserol. Bioresource Technology, pp.8348. Massyuk, 1973. Morphology, taxonomy, ecology and geographic distribution of the genus DunaliellaTeod. and prospects for its potential utilisation. Kiev: Naukova Dumka. Massyuk. pp. 312. Taherzadeh, M.J., Adler, L., Liden, G., 2002. Strategies for enhancing fermentative production of glycerol-a review. Enzyme Microbiol. Technol. 31, 53–66. Wang, Z.X., Zhuge, J., Fang, H., Prior, B.A., 2001. Glycerol production by microbial fermentation: a review. Biotechnol. Adv. 19, 201–223. Interactions between chemicals used in aquaculture and environment in terms of sustainable development Muhammet Altunok , Fatih Gülec , Zerife Peker , Klaus Kümmerer Abstract Aquaculture that is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants, is the fastest growing animal production sector in the world. Global production from aquaculture for human consumption amounted to 73 million tonnes and the value of US$ 110 billion in 2009 and comprised almost fifty percent of the world’s fish supply. Aquaculture, thus, plays an important role in global efforts towards eliminating malnutrition and brings significant health benefits by nutritional well-being. It significantly dominates most devoloping countries in terms of contribution to development by increasing gross domestic product, providing employment opportunities and improving incomes. The potentially adverse impacts of aquaculture that is also threat the sustainability when the sector grows unregulated or under poor management, is of considerable current environmental 118 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo and public interest in the world. Besides eutrophication and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the main environmental pressure associated with intensive aquaculture is chemicals (antibiotics, hormones, fungicides, pesticides, antifoulants, anaesthetics and disinfectants) used in aquaculture. The intensive systems are often associated with various greater use of different types of antibiotics and chemicals generate very different effects on the environment, mainly on water and sediment quality (nutrient and organic matter loads), natural aquatic communities (toxicity, community structure, biodiversity), and microorganisms (alteration of microbial communities, drug resistant strains). The interactions between humans, antibiotics, bacteria, fish and aquatic environments are poorly understood and recent studies show a significant pollution of surface waters with antibiotics and other chemicals which are potential risk to drinking waters. Moreover, as a vicious circle and often as well, aquaculture is also negatively affected by pollution of water supplies by other human activities (ie: agriculture and industrial activities). The environmental approach to sustainable development can control the use of chemicals to eliminate or reduce any negative effects to an acceptable level. Sustainability requires global action, and therefore an effective solution can be achieved on the basis of environmentallyfriendly management systems towards social-ecological aquaculture to integrate aquaculture, environment and society locally and globally. This paper, consequently, addresses the relevance of the environmental approach to the role of aquaculture in sustainable development. Keywords: Aquaculture, Chemicals, Antibiotics, Environment, Sustainable Development 1.INTRODUCTION Securing a safe and sustainable food supply for an increasing population is one of the world's biggest challenges. Fish and aquatic organisms provide an important source of protein. But, global population demand for aquatic food products is increasing while traditional wildcapture fisheries have reached a plateau. Aquaculture is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants in ponds and large net-cages. Farming of aquatic organisms is becoming an important source of food in both international trade and subsistence sectors. After growing steadily for the last four decades, it is now a substantial global industry supplying nearly half of the world's supply of fishery products (fish and other aquatic organisms) consumed as food. It may be an alternative supply to the increasing demand for aquatic products, strong international competition, constant change in consumer needs and expectations, and also depletion of fisheries, providing to reduce the pressure on wild stocks. In terms of its economic productivity, the contribution of aquaculture to trade, both local and international, is also increasing. The aquaculture industry has a potential for further development, but there are some problems with environmental concerns and market instability, locally and globally. Eutrophication, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), chemical pollution, exotic species wild fish stocks and pathogens are some examples of the main environmental impact concerns associated with intensive aquaculture (Naylor et al. 2000). Under potential risk of these impacts, without any rules in context of ecological assessment and sustainable practices, it is not to be expected that aquaculture will continue to supply the demand for aquatic products for a long time. 119 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo At this time of strong public concern throughout the world particularly about the impact of aquaculture on human health and environment especially regarding the use of chemicals are reflected in the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (FAO 1995). In this Code there are several advices, such as the promoting effective farm and fish health management practices (favouring hygienic measures and vaccines), the ensuring safe, effective and minimal use of chemicals (e.g. therapeutants, hormones and drugs, antibiotics and other disease control chemicals), regulating the use of chemical inputs in aquaculture (if they are hazardous to human health and the environment). Status and scope of aquaculture Overall, 80 percent of the world fish stocks are reported as fully exploited or overexploited and are thus unable to withstand additional fishing pressure. The continuing depletion of the world’s fish stocks has led to an increasing demand for aquatic food from aquaculture which has been expanded rapidly worldwide. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global total production of fish, crustaceans and molluscs, including wild capture and aquaculture, reached to approximately 145 million tonnes in 2009 consisted of 90 million tonnes captured which has been stayed level since 2001, plus 55 million tonnes produced by farms (Figure 1). Aquaculture production has continued increasing at an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent from 34.6 million tonnes in 2001 to current level and the value of aquaculture production was estimated at USD 105.3 billion in 2009. It is the fastest growing sector of the food economy. About 84 percent of total fishery production (121.8 million tonnes in 2009) was used for direct human consumption. Global per capita consumption has been increased steadily and reached to an average of 18 kg in 2009 with the share of aquaculture production in total food supply at 46 percent. According to FAO projections, it is estimated that in order to maintain the current levels of consumption, an additional 40 million tonnes of seafood will be required by 2030 and global aquaculture production will need to reach minimum 80 million tonnes by 2050 (FAO, 2007). According to the international marketing records 38.5 percent (live weight equivalent) was exported in 2009 and the value reached USD 96.0 billion. The share of developing countries in this percent was 50.6 percent by value and 60.1 percent by quantity (live weight equivalent) in 2009. Figure 1. Trends in world aquaculture production (FAO, 2010) 120 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo All of these statistics show the important role of aquaculture in global efforts against hunger and malnutrition for both developed and developing countries by supplying fish and other aquatic products contain excellent animal protein and other essential fatty acids, vitamins and minerals. It also contributes to food availability to improve global food security. In terms of food quality, aquatic products bring significant health benefits and contribute to nutritional well-being. It can also make important contributions to the social and economic development of countries through improving incomes, providing employment opportunities and increasing the effective use of resources. It significantly contributes to the national gross domestic products in many developing countries. This may provide a more productive investment opportunity for local resources as well as playing important socio-economic role in rural regions. 2.What is sustainability or sustainable development? In general, "sustainability" and "sustainable development" is a concept to guarantee a liveable environment for all people in the long term. In this concept, aquaculture is highly diverse and consists of a broad spectrum of species, systems and practices. Thus, several indicators, codes and guidelines for sustainable development in aquaculture have been evaluated in recent years (Folke and Kautsky, 1989; Subasinghe et al., 2009). Mostly these indicators can generally be grouped into two main categories: Ecological and socio-economical indicators. Ecologic indicators are aiming preservation of a functional environment, while socio-economic criterions are to provide clear economic advantages for aquaculture farmers and social equity to improve the community's welfare in the long term. There is still little known, how sustainability can be increased in aquaculture and there is no complete practicable criteria to certify the sustainability status of aquaculture operations. According to the criteria systems in previous evaluations, sustainable development is an integrative framework involving ecological, economical and social sustainability. Although, all may seem of equal importance, the current focus is primarily on the economy to achieve the competitiveness. However, environmental issue is a very important part of the development process as no activity in aquaculture will take place if there is not good quality water resources left. Economy and society fundamentally rise up on the natural world and resources, and these are serving to improve the standing of environmental concerns. Therefore, sustainable development in aquaculture industry must be environmentally friendly that means conserving land, water and wildlife resources. Along with too much complexity in sustainable development of aquaculture, there are many concerns about environmental indicators containing two important components, resource use and pollution. In this respect, the sustainable use of natural resources was described by EU Commission in 6th Environmental Action Programme (6 EAP) as: "the consumption of resources and their associated impacts cannot exceed the carrying capacity of the environment and the linkages between economic growth and resource use must be limited". Water resources are essential for life and health besides food and other products put huge demands. Globally, the problem of water shortage is getting worse as the needs for clean water increase in agriculture, industry and households because wastage and pollution is alarming critical limits day by day. Therefore, everyone must be a part of efforts to conserve and protect the water resources. Aquaculture will continue to play an increasing role in fishery products to meet the globally rising demand but the chemicals used in aquaculture put pressure on the environment around 121 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the world (Costello et al., 2001). As a result of technical development and incorporation of advanced technology much of the fish farming systems have moved from extensive to intensive systems that pose environmental risks and threats to the surrounding ecosystem in rivers, water reservoirs and oceans. Much scientific literatures have identified the environmental risks and impacts of the farming of aquatic organisms in open systems (Costello et al., 200; Buschmann et al., 2009). Another important concern is intensification implies increasing the number of individuals and increase potential for the spread of pathogens. This spreading is requiring greater use of inputs (e.g. disinfectants, drugs) and greater generation of waste products presenting a global threat to both the aquatic environment and consumer safety (Kümmerer, 2009). To date, however, aquacultural chemicals have not been paid sufficient attention to the significant risks that would accompany the growth of the industry. Chemical inputs and current situation of chemical usage in aquaculture Table 1: Analysis of the chemical usage in aquaculture. Wide range of potentially hazardous chemicals used in aquaculture operations. Strengths Disease problems worldwide. Uncontrolled and high local use of aquacultural chemicals. Inefficient control and regulations for chemical usage in aquaculture There is insufficient monitoring of chemical residues for aquatic products. Technical knowledge of chemical analysis specific to aquaculture practices is limited. Weaknesses Concept of carrying capacity models to aquaculture systems are nonexistent for certain locations and particularly closed basins in countries. There is no certification system and guidelines developed for environmentally sound and sustainable aquaculture and not harmonized worldwide. Lack of successful environmentally friendly aquaculture demonstration sites for extension purposes nationally. Sustainable and environmentally sound aquaculture practices will reduce the pressures on environment. Opportunities Increasing awareness in local and international. Generating public environmental awareness and education Developing of technology and knowledge on the chemicals used in aquaculture. Inefficient waste management in aquaculture. Threats There is still no monitoring system for aquacultural chemicals in environment. Lack of institutional infrastructure to facilitate sustainable aquaculture 122 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo development. Low technical level of fish farmers. Lack of knowledge of the environmental impacts of aquacultural chemicals. The aquaculture industry is a kind of agricultural sector and chemicals developed originally for animal husbandry but now it common use in both. The chemicals are also essential for increased and controlled production of progeny in hatcheries, increased feeding efficiency, improvement of survival rates, control of pathogens and diseases, and reduction in transport stress (Howe et al., 1995). However, effects of chemicals on the aquatic environment have not been specifically evaluated. The lack of data on their use has complicated the problem. The chemicals used in aquaculture includes soil and water treatments, fertilisers, disinfectants, herbicides, antibacterial agents, other therapeutants, pesticides, feed additives, anaesthetics and hormones. Antifoulants: are used on solid surfaces, ropes and generally on nets in cage aquaculture systems. Even if the antifoulants are generated and used for protection of boat surfaces, they are also used to treat nets and this usage must be of concern if used in fish culture. Disinfectants: are applied as external treatment for fish and especially for eggs and fry. These agents are applied directly in aquatic environment and some of them could be very persistently toxic to aquatic life at low concentrations such as formalin. Farmers will be ensure that the potential for contamination of the environment will be able to minimised. Pesticides: generally are used to control ectoparasits in fish culture. Some of them such as organophosphates may produce vital effects on the health of farm workers. Anaesthetics: are used in stripping of broods and during transport of fish in aquaculture to sedate and calm the aquatic organisms. Hormones: plays an important role to control and induce ovulation for the control of reproduction as well as sex control for mono-sex production in aquaculture. Veterinary pharmaceuticals: are applied in aquaculture as medicated feed and diluted in water and most of them are preferred to prophylactic use rather than against diseases in many countries. Therefore, using of these therapeutic agents are controlled by drug licensing programmes, monitoring of limits on tissue residues and for environmental residues to minimise the risks in terms of human and environmental health. Heavy use of antibiotics in aquaculture: Antimicrobials have been applied in aquaculture for over 50 years and its use has grown both in numbers and quantity, as the problem of diseases has increased. Although they were highly successful at first, improper using led to problems, and concern is now centred on treatment failures. Moreover, it is now an expanding problem for human and animal health and for the environment. Antimicrobial compounds are persistent and can exhibit toxicity in sediments, and can therefore affect the natural microbial community near aquaculture sites (Herwig and Gray, 1997). This residue potential may disturb the balance of the environmental micro-flora. One of the major concerns with use of antibiotics (from any source) is the potential for bacteria to develop resistance to the compounds and for the resistance traits to be manifested in other bacteria including human pathogens (Guardabassi et al., 2000). Treatments may fail for 123 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo several reasons, but probably the most consistent and fundamental cause of their failure is the emergence of resistant bacteria. The risk posed to human health by disturbance of the gastrointestinal flora, selection of resistant strains and allergies is also addressed elsewhere. Quantities of antibiotics used in aquaculture are small compared to other forms of food production and published data show the use of antibiotics in aquaculture has been diminishing in some areas by regulations. Despite the low relative usage of antibiotics in aquaculture compared to other food production systems, their use remains an issue of concern as aquaculture is often practiced in relatively pristine environments and the exact quantities applied directly to water. All of the chemicals were not originally developed for aquaculture use and environmental residues have been ignored. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate the size of risk because of the lack of knowledge on the biological responses to chemical residues in receiving waters and on the concentrations in farm's surrounding environment (sea, effluents and sediments). It is also little known that fates of chemicals in the aquaculture system and the residues in cultured and wild organisms. The picture is yet more bleak for environment with regard to the interactive effects of multiple chemicals in relation to biological effects. Human health and environmental concerns regarding the use of chemicals in aquaculture are reflected in the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (FAO 1995). In this Code there are several advices, such as the promoting effective farm and fish health management practices (favouring hygienic measures and vaccines), the ensuring safe, effective and minimal use of chemicals (e.g. hormones, therapeutants, antibiotics and other disease control chemicals), regulating the use of chemical inputs in aquaculture (if they are hazardous to human health and the environment). A demonstration of an aquaculture activity from Turkey Aquaculture has been developed in Turkey rapidly. Commercial aquaculture production in marine and inland waters takes place all over the country. By 1995 there are approximately 800 fish farms (mainly producing rainbow trout) in inland waters and 400 marine fish farms (mainly seabream and seabass) in operation in the country. However, little detailed information is available on the environmental impacts of this industry. Environmental assessment strategies for aquaculture operations were developed and proven in some countries. However, the application of such strategies would be inappropriate without modification and adaptation to the ecological particularities of the environments where aquaculture operations located. Problems and antimicrobials vary from farm to farm (e.g. cultured species, diseases, different capacities of surrounding environments, climate, level of eutrophication, composition and diversity of fauna and flora) and require site-specific environmental risk assessments. Available data show that large quantities of antibiotics have been applied in the aquaculture operations in Turkey. As being reference for local intensity, the selected river basin is located in the south-western of Turkey. There are 16 trout fish farms in various capacities (totaly appr. 10.000 tonnes/year), including family farms (100 tonnes/year) and businesses (3.000 tonnes/year). Figure 1. Fish farms on Esen River in Fethiye (Turkey) 124 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Antimicrobials and disinfectants are generally used prophylactically and therapeutically in these farms; Oxytetracycline (appr. 700-800kg/year),Tribrissen (Sulphadiazine/Trimethoprim) (appr. 750 kg/year), erythromycin (appr. 400 kg/year) and the others which are used appr. 100-200 kg/year, e.g. enroflaxacin, amoxicillin, doxycyline, florfenicol and last one is formaldehyde used as a disinfectant (appr. 3500 liter/year), (Altunok, personal communication). Previously published literatures suggest that, in general, only 20-30% of antibiotics are actually taken up by fish from medicated food; thus, approximately 70-80% reaches the environment (Samuelsen, 1989). For example, the apparent oral bioavailability of oxytetracycline in rainbow trout was reported approximately 5-6% (Björklund and Bylund, 1990). Some of these chemicals and compounds have considerable adverse environmental effects, and, therefore their use in aquaculture must be carefully assessed. The fate of such compounds should be carefully addressed locally. Since the environmental impacts and risks are site-specific, environmental approach to sustainable aquaculture development requires the integration of its economic, environmental and social components at local levels towards global motion planning. 3. Sustainability criterions regarding to chemicals The limited availability of natural resources coupled with increasing demand for fishery foods the need to move forward in aquaculture to become more sustainable. Compared to other animal production systems, aquaculture is put under special pressure to become more sensitive to environment because the industry uses important natural resources (freshwater, rivers, wetlands, coastal and open ocean areas). The aquaculture industry is working towards reducing use of chemicals and other artificial substances but there is still not effective precautions and conservation plans regarding to chemical use in aquaculture for the most part of the world. Thus, it appears that global efforts are needed to promote more judicious use of chemicals in aquaculture. These efforts should focus on; -increasing the investment on aquaculture -alternative environment-friendly substances and methods of treatment, - developing of vaccines -developing welfare conditions for fish and other aquatic animals, -developing an overall management system that is widely applicable throughout the world, to monitor and control the chemicals. -using of the chemicals in a manner that does not constitute a hazard to human health and the environment and in accordance with the appropriate legislation. -legislations must be strict and include every possible usage of chemicals (e.g. antibiotics may be used on prescription from a veterinarian for the therapeutic (not prophylactic) treatment. 125 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo -the regulation of discharges. In this regard, site specific discharge conditions may include limits on the location, maximum biomass, types and quantities of chemicals due to requirement for monitoring water and sediment quality locally. - Increasing government support to encourage organic and alternative aquatic food farming. 4.CONCLUSION At present, the fish farms do not treat their effluents and discharge them to the environment increasing the environmental pollution worldwide. Pollution of water resources due to chemicals plays primary role in ecosystem degradation, but chemical analyses alone may not be sufficient to describe the adverse effects of the complex mixtures of chemicals present at contaminated sites. The potential utility of biomarkers for monitoring both environmental quality and the health of organisms inhabiting polluted ecosystems has received increasing attention during the recent years. The complexity of these issues and often the lack of data concerning their effects on aquatic environment as well as the lack of monitoring at field situations and surveillance systems, are the factors limiting the risk analysis process. In addition, the direct consequence of this lack of data is that many hazardous chemicals are not classified, and are therefore sold without appropriate labels or safety data sheets. Thus, many chemicals are used in the workplace while their potential effects on the health of workers exposed to them and on the environment are barely known, or known too late. This insufficiency of data is more pronounced in the most of countries, especially where technology and resources are limited or less available. Therefore, it is urgently needed to be determining the actual quantitative risk of aquaculture chemicals in the environment locally. Furthermore, the policy of safe and effective use of chemicals must be developed. Appropriate strategies must be chosen, according to individual requirements for country’s and region’s. Strengthening research efforts and programs for human training and development, as well as enhancing mechanisms for information exchange and technology transfer, may be encouraged through international collaboration. The development of an appropriate and effective impact assessment and monitoring system for aquatic farms is essential in order to ensure the sustainable development of aquaculture, while taking into consideration other aspects of integrated management of the areas, including tourism, fishery, other industries and environmental protection. REFERENCES Bjorklund, H. and G. Bylund. 1990. Temperature-related absorption and excretion of oxytetracycline in rainbow trout (Salmo gairdneri R.). Aquaculture 84: 363-372. Buschmann, A., Cabello, F., Young, K., Carvajal, J., Varela, D.A., Henríquez, L. 2009. Salmon aquaculture and coastal ecosystem health in Chile: Analysis of regulations, environmental impacts and bioremediation systems. Ocean & Coastal Management 52 (2009) 243–249. Costello, M. J., Grant, A., Davies, I. M., Cecchini, S., Papoutsoglou, S., Quigley, D. & Saroglia, M. 2001. The control of chemicals used in aquaculture in Europe. Journal of Applied Ichthyology 17, 173-180. FAO, 1995. Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 41pp. 126 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo FAO. 2007. The role of aquaculture in sustainable development. Thirty-fourth Session. 17-24 November 2007, C 2007/INF/16 Rome. FAO. 10 pp. FAO. 2010. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. Rome. 197 pp. http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1820e/i1820e.pdf Guardabassi, L., A. Dalsgaard, M. Raffatellu and J. Olsen. 2000. Increase in the prevalence of oxolinic acid resistant Acinetobacter spp. observed in a stream receiving the effluent from a freshwater trout farm following the treatment with oxolinic acid-medicated feed. Aquaculture 188: 205-218. Folke. C., N. Kautsky. 1989. The role of ecosystems for a sustainable development of aquaculture. Ambio 18: 234-243 Herwig, R.P., and J.P. Gray. 1997. Microbial response to antibacterial treatment in marine microcosms. Aquaculture 152: 139-154. Howe, G.E., L.L. Marking, T.D. Bills and T.M. Schreier. 1995. Efficacy and toxicity of formalin solutions containing paraformaldehyde for fish and egg treatments. The Progressive Fish Culturist 57: 147-152. Kümmerer, K. 2009. Antibiotics in the aquatic environment – A review – Part I. Chemosphere 75 (2009) 417–434. Naylor, R. L., Goldburg, R. J., Primavera, J. H., Kautsky, N., Beveridge, M. C. M., Clay, J., Folke, C., Lubchenco, J., Mooney, H. and Troell, M. 2000. Effect of aquaculture on world fish supplies, Nature, vol. 405, pp. 1017-24. Samuelsen, O.B. 1989. Degradation of oxytetracycline in seawater at two different temperatures and light intensities, and the persistence of oxytetracycline in the sediment from a fish farm. Aquaculture, 83, 7–16. Subasinghe, R., Soto, D. and Jia, J. 2009. Global aquaculture and its role in sustainable development. Reviews in Aquaculture, 1: 2–9 127 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 1 Monthly descriptive statistics and estimated parameters of length-weight relationships for both sexes of S. aurita in the Izmir Bay (central Aegean Sea) from November 2004 to October 2005. (M: male, F: female, n: number of individuals, a and b: parameters of length-weight relationships, 95% C.I of a and b: 95% confidence intervals of a and b, r2: regression coefficient). Weight characteristics TL Range Mean TL W Range Mean W (±SD) Months Sex n (cm) (±SD) (g) November 2004 M 55 19.8-23.5 21.67±1. 07 F 91 18.7-23.5 21.69±1. 16 M 119 19.0-24.0 F 129 M December January 2005 February 128 Length characteristics Relationship parameters a 95% CI of a b 95% CI of r2 b 56.43-96.72 77.62±13.9 8 0.0020 0.00190.0021 3.425 2.7034.147 0.87 4 47.80116.77 81.22±15.6 8 0.0021 0.00100.0032 3.429 2.8993.959 0.88 0 20.04±1. 16 45.46117.10 58.78±14.4 7 0.0018 0.00070.0029 3.453 3.0613.845 0.93 6 18.8-25.5 20.49±1. 56 42.84138.40 64.41±21.0 5 0.0007 0.00040.0010 3.762 3.5024.022 0.97 3 44 21.2-25.3 22.56±1. 01 72.30107.95 85.83±11.2 4 0.0500 0.00590.0941 2.389 1.9092.869 0.66 2 F 102 21.7-25.6 23.22±0. 90 102.31143.32 94.25±13.9 0 0.0023 0.00060.0040 3.380 2.9043.856 0.88 6 M 92 18.1-25.3 21.22±1. 37.15- 68.06±20.6 0.0006 0.0002- 3.777 3.327- 0.94 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo March April May June July 129 71 131.12 7 0.0010 4.227 0 F 90 18.7-24.6 21.85±1. 50 42.70123.23 73.32±19.0 3 0.0008 0.00040.0012 3.715 3.3334.097 0.95 4 M 75 21.6-23.8 22.75±0. 65 83.88119.52 94.67±10.4 6 0.0067 0.00550.0079 3.058 2.3003.816 0.69 3 F 62 22.5-25.0 23.37±0. 83 91.52132.22 102.84±12. 40 0.0083 0.00710.0095 2.989 2.1353.843 0.87 5 M 129 20.4-23.6 22.03±0. 97 62.40-94.87 77.29±11.4 7 0.0064 0.00080.0120 3.035 2.3773.693 0.83 3 F 74 21.3-24.6 22.68±1. 18 96.16112.47 89.63±14.4 6 0.0361 0.00360.0686 2.501 2.0132.989 0.62 7 M 63 22.1-24.6 23.13±0. 83 96.67129.17 106.70±9.8 3 0.1361 0.00690.2653 2.121 1.8832.359 0.68 1 F 72 21.5-25.6 23.79±1. 04 84.97150.75 121.58±16. 77 0.0060 0.00170.0103 3.130 2.6703.590 0.93 0 M 20 20.3-23.7 22.47±1. 68 62.72101.50 91.55±26.4 1 0.0073 0.00720.0074 2.789 2.3093.269 0.89 6 F 81 19.7-25.7 23.38±1. 90 64.54141.00 102.39±22. 55 0.0262 0.00580.0466 2.619 2.1273.111 0.91 7 M 136 18.1-21.1 19.59±0. 99 44.10-64.39 53.52±7.33 0.0203 0.01110.0295 2.645 2.3412.949 0.95 9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo August September October Overall 130 F 91 18.0-22.6 20.37±1. 57 41.36-80.63 60.74±14.6 3 0.0074 0.00220.0126 2.984 2.5203.448 0.95 4 M 56 15.0-26.5 20.57±3. 33 23.48165.29 73.26±41.0 5 0.0024 0.00190.0029 3.389 3.2573.521 0.99 6 F 84 14.2-28.5 24.55±3. 95 22.39205.80 140.47±57. 74 0.0044 0.00220.0066 3.215 2.8993.531 0.96 3 M 26 16.6-23.9 20.26±2. 61 30.88109.14 66.86±28.5 3 0.0016 0.00070.0025 3.517 3.1253.909 0.99 1 F 78 19.1-25.6 22.98±1. 96 53.84138.82 103.53±26. 64 0.0048 0.00230.0073 3.174 2.8423.506 0.96 6 M 106 19.6-22.0 20.75±0. 53 64.85-87.35 77.02±5.12 0.1010 0.04230.1597 2.189 1.8052.573 0.70 7 F 60 19.5-22.0 21.02±0. 58 71.71-91.73 80.06±5.88 0.0624 0.02130.1035 2.350 1.9182.782 0.79 8 M 921 15.0-26.5 21.32±1. 73 23.48165.29 77.06±21.3 6 0.0033 0.00240.0042 3.279 3.1093.449 0.87 3 F 1014 14.2-28.5 22.29±2. 08 22.39205.80 90.87±31.2 7 0.0025 0.00190.0031 3.375 3.2293.521 0.90 7 M+F 1935 14.2-28.5 21.81±1. 97 22.39205.80 84.03±27.6 7 0.0027 0.00220.0032 3.340 3.2323.448 0.89 8 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo All the LLRs values are given in Table 3. The values for coefficient of determination (r2) for all the length-length parameters of male, female and combined were ˃0.9, and highly significant (p˂0.001). LLRs were measured as TL=a+bFL, FL=a+bSL and SL=a+bTL equation in all sexes and combined. In all the samples together, LLRs are as follows: TL=-1.3284+1.2087FL, FL=1.4623+0.9581SL and SL=0.0000+0.8382TL. The results further indicated that LLRs were highly inter correlated (r2˃0.9, p˂0.01). Table 3 Length-length relationships between total length (TL), fork length (FL) and standart length (SL) of S. aurita in the Izmir Bay (central Aegean Sea) from November 2004 to October 2005 (n: number of individuals, a: intercept, b: slope, r2: regression coefficient). Sex Equation n a b r2 -1.0161 1.1915 0.984 1.1368 0.9761 0.984 SL = a + bTL 0.0000 0.8462 0.999 TL = a + bFL -1.4792 1.2168 0.975 1.6747 0.9469 0.974 SL = a + bTL 0.0000 0.8330 0.999 TL = a + bFL -1.3284 1.2087 0.980 1.4623 0.9581 0.980 0.0000 0.8382 0.999 TL = a + bFL Male Female All FL = a + bSL FL = a + bSL FL = a + bSL SL = a + bTL 921 1014 1948 REFERENCES Avşar, D., (1998). Fisheries biology and population dynamics. University of Cukurova, Faculty of Fisheries, Adana, Turkey, pp. 303 (in Turkish). Bagenal, T.B., & Tesch, F.W., (1978). Age and growth. In: Methods for assessment of fish production in fresh waters, 3 rd edn. T. Begenal (Ed.). IBP Handbook No. 3, Blackwell Science Publications, Oxford, 101-136. Binohlan, C.; Froese, R., & Pauly, D., (1998). The length-length table. In: R. Froese, D. Pauly (Editors). Fishbase 1998: Concept, Design and Data Sources. ICLARM, Manila, pp. 124. 131 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Erkoyuncu, I., (1995). Fisheries biology and population dynamics. Ondokuz Mayıs University, Faculty of Fisheries, Sinop, Turkey, pp. 265 (in Turkish). Froese, R. (2006). Cubelaw, condition factor and weight-length relationships: history, metaanalysis and recommendations. J.Appl.Ichthyol. 22, 241-253. Gonçalves, J.M.S., Bentes, L., Lino, P.G., Ribeiro, J., & Canaroo, A.V.M., (1997). Weightlength relationships for selected fish species of the small-scale demersal fisheries of the south and south and southwest coast of Portugal. Fish. Res., 30(3), 253-256. Koutrakis, E.T., & Tsikliras, A.C., (2003). Length-weight relationships of fishes from three northern Aegean estuarine systems (Greece). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 19, 258-260. Lalèyè, P.A., (2006). Length-weight and length-length relationships of fshes from the Ouémé River in Bénin(West Africa). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 22, 330-333. Moutopoulos, D.K., & Stergiou, K.I., (2002). Length-weight and length-length relationships of fish species of the Aegean Sea (Greece). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 18(3), 200-203. Pauly, D., (1993). Fishbyte section editorial. Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly, 16, pp. 26. Petrakis, G., & Stergiou, K.I., (1995). Weight-length relationships for 33 fish species in Greek waters. Fish. Res. 21, 465-469. Wootton, R.J., (1990) Ecology of teleost fishes. Chapman and Hall, London. Could government legalize illegal settlement by improving their energy efficiency? Janjusevic Jelena, Begovic Radojevic Milica, UNDP, Podgorica; Montenegro Abstract In recent months we are faced with serious budget problems in Montenegro, the solution of which, among other things is seen in reducing the number of employees in state administration. On the other hand, the costs of living are significantly above the disposable budget of households. Particular problem is the high cost of electricity, which recently 132 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1237 Title A name given to the resource Interactions between chemicals used in aquaculture and environment in terms of sustainable development Author Author Muhammet , Altunok Abstract A summary of the resource. Aquaculture that is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants, is the fastest growing animal production sector in the world. Global production from aquaculture for human consumption amounted to 73 million tonnes and the value of US$ 110 billion in 2009 and comprised almost fifty percent of the world’s fish supply. Aquaculture, thus, plays an important role in global efforts towards eliminating malnutrition and brings significant health benefits by nutritional well-being. It significantly dominates most devoloping countries in terms of contribution to development by increasing gross domestic product, providing employment opportunities and improving incomes. The potentially adverse impacts of aquaculture that is also threat the sustainability when the sector grows unregulated or under poor management, is of considerable current environmental and public interest in the world. Besides eutrophication and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the main environmental pressure associated with intensive aquaculture is chemicals (antibiotics, hormones, fungicides, pesticides, antifoulants, anaesthetics and disinfectants) used in aquaculture. The intensive systems are often associated with various greater use of different types of antibiotics and chemicals generate very different effects on the environment, mainly on water and sediment quality (nutrient and organic matter loads), natural aquatic communities (toxicity, community structure, biodiversity), and microorganisms (alteration of microbial communities, drug resistant strains). The interactions between humans, antibiotics, bacteria, fish and aquatic environments are poorly understood and recent studies show a significant pollution of surface waters with antibiotics and other chemicals which are potential risk to drinking waters. Moreover, as a vicious circle and often as well, aquaculture is also negatively affected by pollution of water supplies by other human activities (ie: agriculture and industrial activities). The environmental approach to sustainable development can control the use of chemicals to eliminate or reduce any negative effects to an acceptable level. Sustainability requires global action, and therefore an effective solution can be achieved on the basis of environmentallyfriendly management systems towards social-ecological aquaculture to integrate aquaculture, environment and society locally and globally. This paper, consequently, addresses the relevance of the environmental approach to the role of aquaculture in sustainable development. Keywords: Aquaculture, Chemicals, Antibiotics, Environment, Sustainable Development Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General)