208 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/cd11442ee79c22fd0ea89e2cb626bc05.pdf c13967e2471cf266bacbbc4690ca0316 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo REFERENCES Agency of Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina www.bhas.ba “Bosnia and Herzegovina: Letter of Intent and Technical Memorandum of Understanding“, Published:June 16, 2009, Available at IMF officaila page www.imf.org, “Bosnia and Herzegovina: Letter of Intent and Technical Memorandum of Understanding“, Published:June 16, 2009, Available at IMF offical page www.imf.org Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Various Issues, www.cbbh.ba Consequences of the global financial crisis on BiH economy“, Source: FENA, Published: December 30, 2008., http://www.emportal.rs/en/news/region/74519.html International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10111.htm , . http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10348.pdf “The Western Balkans: Between the Economic Crisis and the European Perspective”, Institute for Regional and International Studies, Sofia, September 2010, page.52 http://www.iris-bg.org/files/The%20Western%20Balkans.pdf, 2008 Global Crisis, The Case Struggle Turkey “You are the Privileged, give us lessons”* Bulut Şahin1, Göçer İsmet1, Dam M. Metin1, Mercan Mehmet2 Martin Wolf, Financal Times' chief economic commentator. 1Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Aydin, Turkey 2Lec. Hakkari University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Aydin, Turkey E-mails: sbulut@adu.edu.tr, igocer@adu.edu.tr, mdam@adu.edu.tr, sbulut@adu.edu.tr Abstract In this survey, how Turkey overcame the 2008 crisis was studied using 2002:1-2011:12 period data through co-integration test. Within the scope of Empiric analysis, the influence of 397 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo selected macroeconomic variables such as Economical growth, ISE, unemployment, export, agriculture, foreign currency rate-USD and supply of Money were studied through two-stage Engle-Granger co-integration method. As a result of co-integration test, in the long run, export policies, IMKB, agriculture and foreign currency policies practiced have positive contribution to economic growth; therefore, Turkey has been successful in the struggle against economic crisis. Money supply policies had negative effect on economic growth and the recent economic crisis affected the growth of Turkish economy in a negative way. In the short term, export and agriculture had a positive effect on the growth of Turkish economy but global economic crisis had a negative effect. Keywords: 2008 Global economic crisis, struggle, Turkey, co-integration. 1.INTRODUCTION In a globalizing world, all countries monitor and study what happens in a particular country. As a result of globalization, all countries are interrelated directly or indirectly. Economic and political relations have become more and more important along as a result of globalization. Developed countries not only manipulate globalization for their own sake, but also they use it as a weapon against developing countries (John Perkins, 2006) the rapid change in the accelerated with immense developments in hi-tech, communication and transport, and there remains no limitation in front of capital and information. The spread of c rises to a different country is regarded as the result of a globalization (Öztürk and Gövdere, 2010) the recent crisis which broke out with the bubbles in the mortgage markets in USA and continued with the publication of the two giants of the market, Fannie May and Freddie May and deepened with bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in USA in September, 2008 and detriments from private sectors (General motors etc.) first influenced finance markets (American stock markets in the first place and then the whole world economies fell sharply) and then real economies (economic growth, unemployment etc.). (Turkish ministry of Finance). The influences of the crisis are still on the go in especially EU countries (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Hungary etc.) The globalizing world had its first devastating economic recession 1929 and it was followed by oil crises in 1970 and 1980. however new crises were on the way: European monetary crisis(1992-1993), Mexico Tequila Crisis (1994-1995), south-east Asia crisis (1997-1998), Indonesia Crisis (1997), Russia Crisis (1998), Brazil Crisis (1999), and Argentina Crisis (2002). Recent crises in Turkey are; 4th April, 1994, November 2000, and February 2001 (Koyuncu and Şenses, 2003) The concept of crisis which badly affects living standards of people and financial crises definitions and their types were handled. Next, the world financial crisis process which emerged in mid-2007 but whose effect was felt in 2008 in Turkey, and also known as mortgage crisis was explained and finally the effects of crisis on Turkish economy and its reflections were mentioned and the effects mentioned were analyzed econometrically and its results were assessed. 398 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.ECONOMIC CRISIS, DEFINITIONS AND TYPES 2.1.Definition of the Economic Crisis A great many definitions have been made for economic crisis. Only a few of those will be given here. “Economic crises can be defined as violent surges which happens beyond an acceptable change limit in any kind of goods, service, production factor or foreign Exchange market.” (Kibritçioğlu, 2003) it means “incidents which happen all of a sudden and unexpectedly in the economy result in quakes in a country’s economy (macro) and firms (micro)” (Aktan and Şen, 2002) In other words, economic crisis can be stated as an unexpected and unpredictable state of nervousness which requires quick action, which needs to be managed well and which threatens the company’s current values, goals and assumptions by making its prevention and adaptation mechanisms inadequate. (kobifinans, 2010) “Financial crisis is a nonlinear corruption in which adverse selection and moral risks are at an advanced level, consequently, financial markets cannot convert funds actively into economic institutions which have the most productive investment opportunities. (Mishkin, 1996) 2.2. 2008 Process of Global Economic Crisis Most of the countries were effected by the crisis. In this period there were also less effected countries(China, Rusia, Brazil etc.). the negative effects of crisis were felt in turkey in the last quarter of 2008. In this crisis real sector was effected in Turkish economy unlike fiscal sector crisis in 2001-2002(Global crisis and Turkey, 2009). The recession in developed countries and sharp falls in the growth rate of developed countries diminished foreign demand, world export rate has declined since the last quarter of 2008. The most effected economies were those which based their growth on exports. As a result of the decline in foreign demand as well as obscurity consumer and real sector reliability declined to the lowest and resulted in a sharp decrease in domestic demand primarily investment(Yörükoğlu, 2009). Figure 1: Selected Macroeconomics Overall Views Of Selected Groups 2002-2011 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -5,00 -10,00 -15,00 Figure 1.7 Campus status DI CAD/GDP Sources: The data was created by me taking IMF(World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012). 399 Figure 1.7 Campus statu �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 1: Descriptions of variables used in Figure 1 WORLD EG WORLD TV D UN D CAD/GDP DI TV DI TIV DI TXV DI CAD/GDP World Real Economic Growth World Trade Volume Development Countries Unemployment Rate Development Countries Currnet Account deficit/GDP Developing Countries Trade Volume Developing Countries Total Import Volume Developing Countries Total Export Volume Developing Countries Currnet Account Deficit/GDP According to the chart above, 12% by volume of global trade in 2009, recorded a 23% reduction In terms of value. Apparently the U.S. economy which started the crisis transferred it to EU. US appear to have got over the crisis. In the EU zone crisis tends to spread. Even though Greece was healed temporarily countries such as Spain and Portugal are also susceptible. International credit rating institute(S&P) warned that it would lower 15 EU countries’ ratings in December 2011, and decreased 9 EU countries’ ratings including France, Austria, Italy on 13 January 2012(Haberturk, 14 Jan. 2012). So what happened in Turkish economy while all these were taking place in the world? 2.3. Process of 2008 Global Economic Crisis Turkey Reconstruction, strengthening and durability of Turkish banking sector following 2001 crisis enabled it to be more resistant to global crisis. Therefore real sector, not the banking sector, was effected by the recent global crisis. Thus Turkey was less effected by the crisis and got rid of its negative effects easily. In order to perceive the effects of crisis on Turkish economy, developments of basic macroeconomic parameters are written below. Figure 2: General Wiev of Selected Turkey macroeconomics Variables 2002-2011 (% annually) 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 10,00 0,00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -10,00 -20,00 400 EG TI/GDP TS/GDP CPI TX UNM GGE/GDP CAD/GDP 2011 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Sources: The data was created by me taking IMF(World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012) . Table 2: Descriptions of variables used in Figure 2 Variables EG TX TI/GDP UNM TS/GDP GGE/GDP CPI CAD/GDP Descriptions Economic Growth Total Export Total Investment /Gross Domestic Product Unemployment Rate Total Saving/ Gross Domestic Product General Government Expenditures / Gross Domestic Product Consumer Price Index Current Account Deficit / Gross Domestic Product In figure 2 some annual economic data are provided for 2002-2011 period. According to the chart, of the economic indicators growth rate, export volume, total savings, total investments and inflation fell while current account deficit, government expenditures and unemployment rate increased. Turkey is the fastest growing economy of Europe in 2010 and in the first quarter of 2011. In the second quarter of 2011 Turkey reached 8.8% growth rate being the second after China 9.5% in the world. OECD foresees that Turkey will be fastest growing OECD country for 2011-2017 period. What helped Turkey overcome the crisis most is trade Turkey follows aggressive export policies(cooperating with African and Asia countries) and is shifting its trade to other places at a time when Europe is in crisis(Çağlayan, 2011). Turkey’s export reached 114 billion dollars in 2010 rising four times and imports reached 185,5 billion dollars rising 3,5 times in the last decade. In 2011the country’s export was 134 billion 969 million dollars. According to the first 79 months data of 2011 exports were made to 79 countries/regions (Çağlayan, 2011). Let’s look into the effects of crisis by checking Turkish economy’s recent data: according to the chart below Turkey started to feel the recent global crisis in the last quarter of 2008 and found itself in the middle of the crisis Feb. 2009. Macroeconomic indicators, especially unemployment rates in 2009, growth rate, ISE as a finance indicator and consumption figures demonstrate this clearly. Then Turkey continued its economical activities, shifted its export from Europe to other countries and started to get over effects of the crisis in a very short time by applying strict fiscal policies. This situation is clear in the next figures. Table 3: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators of the Global Economy in Crisis and Post-2008 Turkey 2008-2012 Selected 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Q1* Macroeconomic Indicators Economic Growth % 0,7 -4,8 9,2 8,5 Total Consumption % -0.4 10,9 -2.0 14,0 5.9 11,9 7.2 9,7 37587,1871 37489,9219 59440,0334 60724,6953 Unemployment Rate % Istanbul Stock Market Endex Credit Volume (Million 401 9,1 58226,7269 114.657.587,4 124.082.398,6 166.330.794,2 231.587.129,9 634.752.560,9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo TL) Total Export (Million 132.027.190 102.142.606 113.883.213 134.969.268 34.744.000** USD) Sources: The data was created by me taking TUIK. *: Quarter of 2012, while expressing 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 year period represents. **: http://www.tim.org.tr/tr/tim-gundem-8.html (DA:20.04.2012) 3.LITERATURE Short quotations were made from the crisis studies and given in this section. Obstfeld and Rogoff (2009), used oil prices, economic growth, international reserves, long term interest rates, policy interest rate, estate prices(case-shiller index), exchange rate, net trade figures, current account deficit, the portion of settled investments in GDP, international investments and foreign deficit while clarifying global imbalances and financial crisis Gourinchas and Rey (2007), showed econometrically that price arrangements of dollar which has been held as reserve currency in the last 10 years determined US net export. Zandi, expressed that low energy costs would greatly contribute to the US economy and would help development in technology. Verick and Islam (2010), suggested that the recent global crisis significantly effected economic growth first, then mixed and the related factors emerged in the markets, freedom of monetary policies has occurred, global imbalances emerged and financial risks have increased. In the most recent of them, beyond all these, economic collapse and unemployment increased and focused on this issue. Taylor (2009), clarified reactions of inflation and macroeconomic activities that was used by CMB’s which use interest rate instrument. Especially short-long term interest rate being used: 1. Current interest rate to target interest rate, 2. How far Current economic activities are from full employment, 3. At what level short long term interest rate should be in full employment. Krugman (1999), expressed that at the time of crisis firms and entrepreneurs could provide growth using foreign capital. Hayaloğlu and Artan (2011), examined IMF well and tried to make out its role. Şimşek and Altay (2009), studied fiscal policies applied during global crisis in their survey and emphasized that. Economy would not recover by only increasing public spending without foreign sources. And they stated that crisis could only be prevented by studying the effects of crisis well, recovering the global liquidity congestion, decreasing domestic obscurities, applying monetary and fiscal policies that are freed from diminishing effects of real sector. 4.DATA SET, METHODOLOGY AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS 4.1.Data Set Data used for analysis between 2002:01 – 2011:12 monthly closed values for 120 observations from Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey-CBRT-(Electonic Data Delivery System). Analysis was conducted using E-wievs 5.1 packet program. 402 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 4: Variables Used in Analysis And Descriptions IPI X ISE M2 AGR USD DUM Industrial Production Index Export Istanbul Stock Exchange Market Monetary Supply Agriculture ABD ($) Dummy variable for month of February 2009 For analysis first of all logarithmic series were obtained by taking logarithm of the indexes monthly average values and the integration level of logarithmic series were examined. Whether logarithmic series are stationary or not was studied Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)(Dickey and Fuller, 1981) and Phillips-Perron (PP)( Phillips-Perron, 1988, 1990) tests. 4.2.Methodology Some pretests need to be carried out so that EKKY-two stage Engle-Granger co-integration analysis could be made to the least squares method. First selected variables were analyzed for stationary. In this survey series stationary was tested with ADF and PP methods. Short and long term relations between the series were conducted Engle-Granger two stage co-integrations analysis. Moreover short term models are obtained when long term equation residuals are added to series whose differences are taken. 5.EMPIRICAL RESULTS 5.1.Unit-Root Test Results and Evaluations The stationary of the variables are calculated for the ADF in Table 5. Table 5: ADF Unit Root Test Results Variables lnIPI lnX lnISE lnM2 lnUSD lnAGR DUM ∆IPI ∆X ∆ISE ∆M2 ∆USD ∆AGR Variables 403 t-Statistic -1.54 [12] -1.94 [2] -1.45 [1] -2.75 [1] -1.64 [2] -0.07 [12] -10.98 [0] -9.44 [11] -13.02 [1] -8.95 [0] -7.85 [0] -8.06 [1] -4.02 [12] t-Statistic %1 -3.49 -3.48 -3.48 -3.48 -3.48 -3.49 -3.48 -3.49 -3.48 -3.48 -3.48 -3.48 -3.49 %1 Critical Values %5 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 -2.88 Critical Values %5 %10 -2.58 -2.58 -2.57 -2.57 -2.58 -2.58 -2.57 -2.58 -2.58 -2.57 -2.57 -2.58 -2.58 %10 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo -1.66 [12] -4.04 -3.45 -3.15 lnIPI -2.07 [2] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnX -1.68 [1] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnISE -0.62 [1] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnM2 -1.78 [2] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnUSD -2.21 [12] -4.04 -3.45 -3.15 lnAGR -10.91 [0] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 DUM -9.35 [11] -4.04 -3.45 -3.15 ∆IPI -13.10 [1] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆X -8.98 [0] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆ISE -8.49 [0] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆M2 -8.08 [1] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆USD -4.14 [12] -4.04 -3.45 -3.15 ∆AGR Note: MacKinnon (1996), Δ symbol indicates that the variables taken the first difference. In values [ ]; The optimum length of lag is determined (Schwarz Information Criterion: SC). As shown in Table 5, the series has a unit root at level of first-degree differences, but that is not a unit root at a significance level of 5%. It appeares to be stationary. In other words, the level of alignment of the series I (1) is. PP test results are given in Table 6. Table 6: PP Unit-Root Test Results Critical Values %1 %5 %10 -3.48 -2.68 [7] -2.88 -2.57 lnIPI -3.48 -1.84 [21] -2.88 -2.58 lnX -3.48 -1.20 [6] -2.88 -2.57 lnISE -3.22 [2] -3.48 -2.88 -2.57 lnM2 -3.48 -1.78 [1] -2.88 -2.57 lnUSD -3.07 [2] -3.48 -2.88 -2.57 lnAGR -3.48 -10.98 [0] -2.88 -2.57 DUM -23.06 [26] -3.48 -2.88 -2.57 ∆IPI -93.94 [24] -3.48 -2.88 -2.58 ∆X -30.15 [14] -3.48 -2.88 -2.58 ∆ISE -39.86 [33] -3.48 -2.88 -2.58 ∆M2 -50.43 [96] -3.48 -2.88 -2.58 ∆USD -30.03 [7] -3.48 -2.88 -2.58 ∆AGR Critical Values Variables t-Statistic %1 %5 %10 -4.01 [4] -4.03 -3.44 -3.11 lnIPI -3.83 [4] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnX -1.83 [6] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnISE -0.68 [2] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnM2 -1.95 [1] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnUSD -3.97 [2] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 lnAGR -10.91 [0] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 DUM -25.22 [28] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆IPI -94.64 [24] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆X -30.52 [14] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆ISE -40.31 [34] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆M2 -56.72 [102] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆USD -29.87 [7] -4.03 -3.44 -3.14 ∆AGR Note: MacKinnon (1996), Δ symbol indicates that the variables taken the first difference. In values [ ]; Barlett-Kernel used as a prediction method is the optimum length of lag. Variables 404 t-Statistic �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo As shown in Table 6 that the series has a unit root, but the first degree level at 5% significance level differences appear to be stationary, ie there is a unit root. In other words, the level of alignment of the series I (1) is. After levels of integration of series is determined I (1) the error terms of the series obtained by regression of the series I (0) is expected to be (Brooks, 2008). When ADF test is applied for a series of error terms, the ADF test statistic is 7.288124, given a series at a critical value of 1% does not have 5% significance level a unit root is seen in Table 7. Table 7: The Regression error terms Unit Root Test The length of lag: 0 ADF Test Statistical Test Critical Values Critical Values 1% level t- St. Prob. -7.288124 0.0000 -3.48 5.2. Long-Term Analysis Long-term model for the series included in analysis was estimated and the results are given Table 8. Table 8: Long-Term Analysis Variables Statistical Values C -3.45 [-8.71] AGR 0.04 [4.92] USD 0.277 [4.22] ISE 0.164 [6.83] X 0.428 [12.12] M2 -0.166 [-5.20] DUM -0.148 [-2.95] Table 9: Long-Term Analysis Statistic 2 R 0.93 CRDWAC 1.25 CRDWTAB 0.511 Fist 287.78 In Table 9 the descriptive statistics for the analysis of long-term value of CRDWAC CRDWTAB, in Table 10, the ADFAC value of long-term residuals are significant because of the 5% level of co-integration analysis of long-term relationship between the series. In table 8, long term analysis crisis effected Turkish economy in a negative manner and its statistically significant. Export is the most remarkable variable which contribute to the country’ economy. This rate is statistically significant coefficient and 0,428. The other variables that contributed to the growth of Turkish economy are ISE, USD and AGR and they are statistically significant. Supply of money effects economic growth negatively. 5.3 Testing for Co-Integration Residuals series were composed from long term analysis of countries and ADF and CRDW tests were applied to the series. Table 10: The Relationship Co-Integration ADFAC ADFTA CRDWAC DWTA Conclusion -7.28 -3.77 1.25 0.511 Yes VARIABLES Note: Critical values, Engle-Granger, 1987, taking in Table II. The calculated test statistics, in absolute value, the table is larger than the critical values, the existence of co-integration relationship between the series makes decisions. 405 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In table 10, its clear that there is a co-integration relation between Turkey macroeconomic series. Since a co-integration relation is found its decided that short term analysis could be made. 5.4. The Short Term Analysis Short-term error correction model and the results are given in Table 11. Table 11: The Short Term Analysis Variables Statistical Values ECt-1 -0.531 [-5.49] C -0.002 [-0.38] ∆AGR 0.032 [3.23] ∆USD 0.175 [1.24] ∆ISE -0.020 [-0.31] ∆X 0.495 [12.12] ∆M2 -0.110 [0.40] Table 12: The Short Term Analysis 2 R DW Fst LMols WHols Constant 0.75 1.84 48.48 0.75 0.06 -0.002 Variables Note: LMols: Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test probability values, WH ols: White Heteroskedasticity test probability refers to the value. These values are less than 0.05 is large, the model is considered Note a problem. When the results in table 12 are examined, its observed that error corrections term coefficients in the short term are negative and statistically significant. Therefore, deviations occurring in the short term between series which move together in the long run are removed and series approach their long term balance value again. The variable which effects economic growth n the short term is export series with 0,49 coefficient and in a positive way. Agriculture an exports effect economic growth in a positive way and its significant. Effect of global economic crisis is negative and statistically significant. 6.CONCLUSION In this survey, the effects of 2008 global economic crisis on the selected macroeconomic variables in Turkey was studied using 2002-2011 period monthly data. Crisis was represented in analysis with a dummy variable. In the long term analysis it was proved empirically that in Turkish economy agriculture, exchange rates, exports effected economy in a positive way while money supply and 2008 global crisis effected negatively. All of the variables in the analysis are significant. While exports effected economic growth in a positive way as expected the effect of crisis on Turkish economy is negative. In the short term analysis; error correction terms coefficients is negative and statistically significant. Therefore, deviations occurring in the short term between series which move together in the long run are removed and series approach their long term balance value again. In other words the effect of a shock on one of the variables disappear in the long run. According to empirical results obtained; the biggest contribution to Turkish economy was made by export and agriculture and recent economic crisis had a negative effect on its growth. Because, crisis in Turkey lasted relatively short and precautions were effective. REFERENCES AKTAN, Coşkun Can and ŞEN, Hüseyin, (2002), “Ekonomik Kriz: Nedenler ve Çözüm Önerileri”, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi 2002/1, 2002. 406 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo BROOKS, Chris (2008), “Introductory Econometrics for Finance”, 2nd Edition, ISBN:9780521873062, Publication date:May 2008 ÇAĞLAYAN, Zafer (2011), “Ekonomi Bakanı, DTÖ Müzakereler Koordinasyon Kurulu Toplantısı Açılış Konuşması”, 22 Kasım 2011. DICKEY, David A., and FULLER, Wayne A., (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, (49), 1057-72. ENGLE, Robert and GRANGER, C. W. J. (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Represention, estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, no: 55(2), pp.251-276. GOURINCHAS, Pierre-Olivier and REY, Hélène (2007). “International Financial Adjustment.”, Journal of Political Economy 115 (August): 665-703. HABERTURK, EKONOMİ SERVİSİ, 14 Ocak 2012 Cumartesi, 11:07:36 http://ekonomi.haberturk.com/finans-borsa/haber/705852-iste-sira-dayagi-magdurlari (DA:20.04.2012) HAYALOĞLU, Pınar and ARTAN, Seyfettin (2011), “Küresel Ekonomik Krizle Mücadelede İMF’nin Değişen Rolü”, Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, Yıl:3 Sayı:6, Kış 2011 ISSN 1307-9832 IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012 (DA: 25.04.2012) KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, Aykut (2003), “Türkiye’de Ekonomik Krizler ve Hükümetler”, 19692001, http://politics.ankara.edu.tr/~kibritci/ytd-kibritcioglu.pdf, s.1, 28/08/2003. KOYUNCU, Murat and ŞENSES, Fikret (2003), “Kısa Dönem Krizlerin Sosyoekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye, Endonezya ve Arjantin Deneyimleri” , Çalışma ve Toplum Dergisi, S . 13. , Mart-2003, s. 11. KRUGMAN, Paul(1999), “Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem and Financial Crises”, International Tax and Public Finance, 6, 459–472 (1999). MACKINNON, James G. (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, (11), 601-618. MISHKIN, Frederic S, (1996), “Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective,” Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, The World Bank, Washington, pp. 29-62. 1996. OBSTFELD, Maurice and ROGOFF, Kenneth (2009), “Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes”, Paper prepared for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Asia Economic Policy Conference, Santa Barbara, CA, October 18-20, 2009. Barbara, CA, October 18-20, 2009 PERRON, P. (1990), Testing For a Unit Root in a Time Series With a Changing Mean, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, no: 8(2), pp.153-162. PHILIPS, P.C.B. and PERRON, P. (1988), Testing For a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biomètrika, no:75 (2), pp.336-346. ŞİMŞEK, Hayal A. and ALTAY, Asuman (2009), “Küresel Kriz Ortamında Türkiye'de Maliye Politikalarının Değerlendirilmesi”, Gündem 1, Sayı 528, <http://www.ekonomikyorumlar.com.tr/dergiler/gundem/Gundem_1_Sayi_528.pdf> 407 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo TAYLOR (2009), “Voluntary social initiatives in fresh fruit and vegetables value chains; ISBN 978-92-2-122007-7 (print); 978-92-2-122008-4 (web pdf) Sarah Best and Ivanka Mamic. VERICK, Sher and ISLAM, Iyanatul (2010), “The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, consequences and policy responses”, Employment Sector Employment Working Paper No. 61. WOLF, Martin (2012), http://ekonomi.haberturk.com/makro-ekonomi/haber/710434-bizeders-verin- 28 Ocak 2012 Cumartesi, 13:13:34 (DA:05.04.2012) YÖRÜKOĞLU, Mehmet (2009), “Küresel Mali Kriz ve Türkiye Ekonomisi”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Başkan Yardımcısı, 2009, İstanbul. ZANDI, Mark. Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Inc. He can be reached via help@economy.com. http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/144040636.html “Gas prices and the economy” www.tcmb.gov.tr www.imf.org www.tuik.gov.tr http://www.kobifinans.com.tr/tr/bilgi_merkezi/02061001/20892 (DA:17.04.2012) http://www.tim.org.tr/tr/tim-gundem-8.html (DA:20.04.2012) xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/22560935/886502103/name/ikp-pdf.pdf (17.04.2012) Natural Resources and Economical Growth in Central Asia and Caucasus Filiz Kadi Fatih University Economics Department Abstract As it is known, all former Soviet states faced serious economical and social problems after they gained independency. At this stage of history, these countries took into their hands responsibilities for self-development. To overcome their problems, they tried to find and imply suitable policy in all spheres of social life. In order to strengthen their economy, they had to look their capability and capacity, and use them in the right direction. However, many factors such as cut off the link between the main provider of the Soviet Union, Russia and other republics, problems in management, the lack of experience in market economy brought to serious problems in these countries. As a result, production process was seriously damaged in all sectors of their economy. Consequently, without being able to manufacture products, these countries began to focus on the raw materials, not considering effects of economic dependency on natural recourses. 408 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1348 Title A name given to the resource 2008 Global Crisis, The Case Struggle Turkey Author Author Bulut, Şahin Abstract A summary of the resource. In this survey, how Turkey overcame the 2008 crisis was studied using 2002:1-2011:12 period data through co-integration test. Within the scope of Empiric analysis, the influence of selected macroeconomic variables such as Economical growth, ISE, unemployment, export, agriculture, foreign currency rate-USD and supply of Money were studied through two-stage Engle-Granger co-integration method. As a result of co-integration test, in the long run, export policies, IMKB, agriculture and foreign currency policies practiced have positive contribution to economic growth; therefore, Turkey has been successful in the struggle against economic crisis. Money supply policies had negative effect on economic growth and the recent economic crisis affected the growth of Turkish economy in a negative way. In the short term, export and agriculture had a positive effect on the growth of Turkish economy but global economic crisis had a negative effect. Keywords: 2008 Global economic crisis, struggle, Turkey, co-integration. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/5f10381dc9cdcce8299fb4f6ad797386.pdf fb86f00f35096aee155693f91dbabc12 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo World Bank Pension Reform Primer (n.d.), Notional Accounts: Notional Defined Contribution Plans as a Pension Reform Strategy. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPENSIONS/Resources/3954431121194657824/PRPNoteNotionalAccts.pdf (11.12.2011) www.invest.gov.tr, “Turkish Social Security System” (01.02.12) Yazici,Berna, “The Return to the Family: Welfare, State, and Politics of the Family in Turkey”,http://readperiodicals.com/201201/2592689941.html#ixzz1swIsiFRFhttp://readperio dicals.com/201201/2592689941.html#ixzz1svtHJz7Y (01.02.2012) TISK,Turkey in Figures,July 2009 TUIK,Turkiye Istatistik Yıllıgı,2011 A Critique On The Consistency Ratios Of Some Selected Articles Regarding Fuzzy Ahp And Sustainability Bülent Başaran Affiliation: Bilecik University, the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bilecik, Turkey Abstract Consistency ratio (CR) is a very important indicator for achieving the reliability of an individual’s pairwise comparisons in Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Although the applications of fuzzy AHP need this kind of CR results as well, only a few of studies include these results. The most accepted method to calculate CR for fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) is to transform fuzzy numbers to crisp versions and to proceed as in the ordinary CR calculations of AHP. Triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) are usually used to present linguistic terms of an individual’s pairwise comparisons. In this research, CRs of 242 PCMs presented with TFNs, found in 39 articles, have been calculated based on four widely used defuzzification methods. The aim of this research is to find out if the PCMs of some available articles regarding sustainability issues in literature are reliable. After CR calculations of those PCMs, it has been found that some of them are reliable while many others are not. After reviewing these findings, researchers in fuzzy AHP field are expected to give much attention to those CR issues and try to obtain PCMs that are more reliable. 318 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Keywords: fuzzy AHP, consistency ratio, sustainability, defuzzification, fuzzy numbers 1.INTRODUCTION Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), developed by Saaty (1980), is a very powerful multicriteria prioritization technique. However, its applicability is not only limited to the number of criteria but also to the consistency ratio (CR) of pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs). If the CR value of a PCM passes 0.1, it means that the matrix is not consistent and comparisons should be made again in order to have a reasonable CR value. Fuzzy AHP is developed because of the fuzzy nature of those pairwise comparisons (Chang 1996). To provide more fuzziness (according to Saaty and Tran’s ‘2007’ criticism), usually triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) are used in pairwise comparisons. Although some kind of CR value is needed to evaluate those PCMs in fuzzy AHP as well, many of the research articles skip this evaluation. The aim of this study is to present how much the results of those researches are reliable when taking CR issues into consideration. A total of 242 PCMs, found in 39 articles, have been examined in terms of their crisp version CR values. The paper is organized as follows: first, the applications of fuzzy AHP in literature are described; second, some defuzzification methods for obtaining the crisp versions of those TFNs are explained; third, how TFNs differ in their crisp versions under different diffuzzification methods are shown; fourth, CR values of PCMs in some selected articles are evaluated. Finally, remarkable conclusions and some future directions are given. 2.FUZZY AHP AND ITS APPLICATIONS IN LITERATURE Fuzzy AHP is one of the most widely used methods in multicriteria decision making although Saaty and Tran (2007) criticizes it seriously about its fuzzifying judgments. Some applications of fuzzy AHP exist in the field of sustainability and sustainable developments. Although there are some fuzzy approaches to obtain a priority weight vector (Chang 1996, Liou and Wang 1992), Chang’s extent synthesis method is used in many fuzzy AHP studies. Among many research areas regarding sustainability and fuzzy AHP, some of them can be given as follows:         319 Supplier or firm selection: Kahraman et al. (2004), Chan et al. (2008), Efendigil et al. (2008), Lee et al. (2009), Şen et al. (2010), Chen et al. (2011), Pei et al. (2011), Aydin et al. (2012), Öztürk and Başkaya (2012). Production process selection: Talinli et al. (2010). Market selection: Deng and Molla (2008), Toksarı and Toksarı (2011). Facility location selection: Ertuğrul and Karakaşoğlu (2008), Kayikci (2010). Resource allocation: Ahari et al. (2011), Bulut et al. (2012). Personnel selection: Celik et al. (2009), Pei et al. (2011), Bulut et al. (2012). Quality issues: Kwong and Bai (2003), Büyüközkan et al. (2011), Aydin et al. (2012). Strategy prioritization: Lin et al. (2010), Chaghooshi et al. (2011). �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo   Environmental issues: Lee et al. (2009), Tseng et al. (2009), Zheng et al. (2010), Karimi et al. (2011), Wang et al. (2011). Some other managerial issues: Zheng (2011), Bulut et al. (2012). 3.DEFUZZIFICATION OF TRIANGULAR FUZZY NUMBERS A TFN can be defined by the membership function (1) (Bulut et al. 2012). 0, ( x  l ) /(m  l ),   A ( x)  1, (u  x) /(u  m),  0, x  l, l  x  m, x  m, (1) m  x  u, u  x, where l and u correspond to the lower and upper bounds of the fuzzy number Ã, respectively, and m is the midpoint. The TFN is indicated as à = (l, m, u). The methods for defuzzification of TFNs used in this study are as follows:  Weighted Mean Method: According to Kwong and Bai (2003), a TFN can be defuzzified to a crisp number by equation (2). A crisp  (l  4m  u ) 6 (2) This method has been used by some researchers for transforming TFNs to crisp versions and calculated CRs accordingly. Although equation (2) is very easy to calculate, it may cause some bias problems because of weighting. It is more appropriate for the TFNs shaping as an equilateral triangle. However, especially the reciprocals of TFNs used in fuzzy PCMs do not shape as an equilateral triangle most of the time.  Centroid Method: It is also called “center of gravity” method and is the most widely used one among other defuzzification methods. Centroid defuzzification returns the center of area under the curve as in equation (3). A crisp    ( x).xdx   ( x)dx A (3) A For TFNs as in function (1), the result of centroid method will be equal to (l + m + u)/3.  Bisector Method: The bisector is the vertical line that will divide the region into two subregions of equal area. It will be equal to m for equilateral TFNs.  Middle, Smallest, and Largest of Maximum (MOM, SOM, and LOM) Methods: Since any TFN used in a PCM has a unique maximum, the result of these three methods will be the same. Therefore, only the MOM results have been shown in this study. 320 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4.VARIATIONS IN TRIANGULAR FUZZY NUMBERS The TFNs used for importance degrees are equilateral linguistic variables except for the highest level. In some researches such as Zheng et al. (2010), Zheng (2011), Wang et al. (2011), Tseng et al. (2009), Toksarı and Toksarı (2011), Bozbura and Beskese (2007), Ahari et al. (2011), Büyüközkan et al. (2011), the highest level is also equilateral. However, in many other researches, the highest level is not equilateral. On the other hand, reciprocal values of any TFNs are not equilateral in almost every time. Because of these reasons, weighted mean method is not the best approach in many situations and researchers need to look at how some other defuzzification methods will result. Table 1 shows how crisp versions of some reciprocal TFNs can differ in terms of different defuzzification techniques. Table 1. Defuzzification of TFNs Crisp Versions Resulting from Defuzzification Methods Importance Degrees* Equally important TFNs Weighted Mean Centroid Bisector MOM (1/2, 1, 3/2) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 Weakly more important (1, 3/2, 2) 1.5000 1.5000 1.5000 1.5000 Strongly more important (3/2, 2, 5/2) 2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 (2, 5/2, 3) 2.5000 2.5000 2.5000 2.5000 (5/2, 3, 7/2) 3.0000 3.0000 3.0000 3.0000 (2/3, 1, 2) 1.1111 1.2222 1.1835 1.0000 Reciprocal of weakly more important (1/2, 2/3, 1) 0.6944 0.7222 0.7113 0.6667 Reciprocal of strongly more important (2/5, 1/2, 2/3) 0.5111 0.5222 0.5176 0.5000 Reciprocal of very strongly more important (1/3, 2/5, 1/2) 0.4056 0.4111 0.4087 0.4000 Reciprocal of absolutely more important (2/7, 1/3, 2/5) 0.3365 0.3397 0.3383 0.3333 Very strongly more important Absolutely more important Reciprocals Reciprocal of equally important Notes: * These can be found in Zheng et al. (2010), Zheng (2011), Wang et al. (2011), Tseng et al. (2009), Toksarı and Toksarı (2011), Bozbura and Beskese (2007). 5.EVALUATIONS OF SOME SELECTED ARTICLES A total of 39 articles regarding fuzzy AHP and sustainability have been taken from the literature. There are 242 PCMs developed with TFNs in those articles. A MATLAB m_file has been coded to compute all of those PCMs’ CRs according to above mentioned four defuzzification methods. Table 2 shows just two of those articles’ calculation results. It is not 321 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo possible to show all CR values for all PCMs in this space limited study. On the other hand, the articles and their number of PCMs that have CR values above 0.1 are shown in Table 3. Table 2. Some examples of exact CR calculation results CR Values based on The Following Methods Articles Chen et al. (2011) Lee et al. (2009) PCMs Presented with TFNs Weighted (Matrix No.) Mean Centroid Bisector MOM 1 0.0432 0.0771 0.0637 0.0089 2 0.0965 0.1655 0.1464 0.0176 3 0.1566 0.1826 0.1724 0.1304 4 0.3750 0.3950 0.3878 0.3533 1 0.0761 0.0988 0.0912 0.0526 2 0.1573 0.2216 0.2006 0.0910 Table 3. CR results of matrices in literature Number of PCMs whose Crisp Versions Have a CR above 0.1 based on The Following Defuzzification Methods Number of PCMs Articles Presented with TFNs Weighted Mean Centroid Bisector MOM Ahari et al. (2011) 2 - 1 1 - Aydin et al. (2012) 1 1 1 1 1 Bulut et al. (2012)* 25 14 19 19 3 Büyüközkan et al. (2011)* 26 - 2 1 - Celik et al. (2009) 6 4 4 4 2 Chaghooshi et al. (2011)* 4 1 2 1 - Chan et al. (2008) 8 1 1 1 1 Chen et al. (2011) 4 2 3 3 2 Deng and Molla (2008) 5 5 5 5 4 Efendigil et al. (2008) 1 1 1 1 1 322 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Ertuğrul and Karakaşoğlu (2008) 6 6 6 6 6 Kahraman et al. (2004) 15 9 10 9 9 Karimi et al. (2011) 5 1 1 1 1 Kayikci (2010) 1 1 1 1 1 Kwong and Bai (2003)* 9 2 3 3 - Lee et al. (2009)* 2 1 1 1 - Lee et al. (2011)* 5 2 3 3 2 Lin et al. (2010) 6 5 6 6 - Öztürk and Başkaya (2012)* 19 7 14 11 - Pei et al. (2011) 21 18 20 20 9 Şen et al. (2010) 4 - 2 1 - Talinli et al. (2010) 1 1 1 1 1 Toksarı and Toksarı (2011) 8 5 5 5 5 Tseng et al. (2009)* 5 3 3 3 3 Wang et al. (2011) 4 1 1 1 - Zheng (2011) 3 - 2 1 - Zheng et al. (2010) 7 - 1 - - Notes: * Some CRs or related explanations are presented inside the article. 6.CONCLUTIONS Many researchers continue to use fuzzy AHP without any explanation and calculation about CRs of PCMs used in their studies. Although the methods and applications submitted in their researches give valuable contributions to literature, violation of the CR limit may decrease the reliability of their currently published articles. In this study, after a broad review of literature, 242 PCMs in 39 articles have been examined. The TFNs have been transformed into their crisp versions via four different defuzzification methods and the CRs of those PCMs have been calculated as in the ordinary AHP. The results have shown that many of those PCMs violated the 0.1 upper-limit under some defuzzification methods while they did not violate this limit under some others. Because of this reason, researchers in fuzzy AHP field need to pay much attention to the CR issues for their PCMs. More researches are needed to formulate a more suitable CR for fuzzy AHP applications. REFERENCES 323 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Ahari, S.G., Ghaffari-Nasab, N., Makui, A. and Ghodsypour, S. H. (2011) A Portfolio Selection Using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Case Study of Iranian Pharmaceutical Industry, International Journal of Industrial Engineering Computations, 2, 225-236. Aydin, S., Kahraman, C. and Kaya, İ. (2012) A New Fuzzy Multicriteria decision Making Approach: An Application for European Quality Award Assessment, KnowledgeBased Systems, Article in Press. Büyüközkan, G., Çiftçi, G. and Güleryüz, S. (2011) Strategic Analysis of Healthcare Service Quality Using Fuzzy AHP Methodology, Expert Systems with Applications, 38, 94079424. Bozbura, F.T. and Beskese, A. (2007) Prioritization of Organizational Capital Measurement Indicators Using Fuzzy AHP, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 44, 124-147. Bulut, E., Duru, O., Keçeci, T. and Yoshida, S. (2012) Use of Consistency Index, Expert Prioritization and Direct Numerical Inputs for Generic Fuzzy-AHP Modeling: A Process Model for Shipping Asset Management, Expert Systems with Applications, 39, 1911-1923. Celik, M., Kandakoglu, A. and Er, I.D. (2009) Structuring Fuzzy Integrated Multi-Stages Evaluation Model on Academic Personnel Recruitment in MET Institutions, Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 6918-6927. Chaghooshi, A.J., Fathi, M.R., Omidian, A. and Zarchi, M.K. (2011) Integration of FPM, Fuzzy AHP and ANP Methods in Formulation of Software Industry Strategy (Case Study: System Group Company), Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5(9), 1232-1247. Chan, F.T.S., Kumar, N., Tivari, M.K., Lau, H.C.W. and Choy, K.L. (2008) Global Supplier Selection: A Fuzzy-AHP Approach, International Journal of Production Research, 46(14), 3825-3857. Chang, D.Y. (1996) Applications of the extent analysis method of fuzzy AHP, European Journal of Operational Research, 95(3), 649-655. Chen, S., Jian, T. and Yang, H. (2011) A Fuzzy AHP Approach for Evaluating Customer Value for B2C Companies, Journal of Computers, 6(2), 224-231. Deng, H. and Molla, A. (2008) Multicriteria Analysis for Evaluating and Selecting E-Markets in Business-to-Business E-Business, International MultiConference of Engineers & Computer Scientists 2008, 870-877. Efendigil, T., Önüt, S. and Kongar, E. (2008) A Holistic Approach for Selecting a Third-Party Reverse Logistics Provider in the Presence of Vagueness, Computers & Industrial Engineering, 54, 269-287. 324 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Ertuğrul, İ. and Karakaşoğlu, N. (2008) Comparison of Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy TOPSIS Methods for Facility Location Selection, International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, 39, 783-795. Kahraman, C., Cebeci, U. and Raun, D. (2004) Multi-attribute Comparison of Catering Service Companies Using Fuzzy AHP: The Case of Turkey, International Journal of Production Economics, 87, 171-184. Karimi, A.R., Mehrdadi, N., Hashemian, S.J., Nabi-Bidhendi, Gh.R. and TavakkoliMoghaddam, R. (2011) Using of the Fuzzy TOPSIS and Fuzzy AHP Methods for Wastewater Treatment Process Selection, International Journal of Academic Research, 3(1), 737-745. Kayikci, Y. (2010) A Conceptual Model for Intermodal Freight Logistics Centre Location Decisions, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 2, 6297-6311. Kwong, C.K. and Bai, H. (2003) Determining the Importance Weights for the Customer Requirements in QFD Using a Fuzzy AHP with an Extent Analysis Approach, IIE Transactions, 35, 616-626. Lee, A.H.I., Kang, H-Y., Hsu, C-F. and Hung, H-C. (2009) A Green Supplier Selection Model for High-Tech Industry, Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 7917-7927. Lee, C-C., Tzeng, G-H. and Chiang, C. (2011) Determining Service Quality measurement Key Indicators in a Travel Website Using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, International Journal of Electronic Business Management, 9(4), 322-333. Lin, C-T., Lee, C. and Wu, C-S. (2010) Fuzzy Group Decision Making in Pursuit of a Competitive Marketing Strategy, International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, 9(2), 281-300. Liou, T.S. and Wang, M.J. (1992) Ranking Fuzzy Numbers with Integral Value, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 50, 247-255. Öztürk, B.A. and Başkaya, Z. (2012) Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci ile Bir Ekmek Fabrikasında Un Tedarikçisinin Seçimi, Business and Economics Research Journal, 3(1), 131-159. Pei, W., Liao, H-F. and Tan, B-L. (2011) A Revised Model of Fuzzy Extended AHP", International Journal of Organizational Innovation, 4(1), 27-44. Saaty, T.L. (1980) The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill Inc., New York, NY. Saaty, T.L. and Tran, L.T. (2007) On the Invalidity of Fuzzifying Numerical Judgments in the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 46, 962-975. Şen, C.G., Şen, S. and Başlıgil, H. (2010) Pre-Selection of Suppliers Through an Integrated Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Max-Min Methodology, International Journal of Production Research, 48(6), 1603-1625. 325 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Talinli, I., Topuz, E. and Akbay, M.U. (2010) Comparative Analysis for Energy Production Processes (EPPs): Sustainable Energy Futures for Turkey, Energy Policy, 38, 44794488. Toksarı, M. and Toksarı, M.D. (2011) Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Prosesi (AHP) Yaklaşımı Kullanılarak Hedef Pazarın Belirlenmesi, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 38, 51-70. Tseng, M-L., Lin, Y-H. and Chiu, A.S.F. (2009) Fuzzy AHP-Based Study of Cleaner Production Implementation in Taiwan PWB Manufacturer, Journal of Cleaner Production, 17, 1249-1256. Wang, L., Xu, L. and Song, H. (2011) Environmental Performance Evaluation of Beijing's Energy Use Planning, Energy Policy, 39, 3483-3495. Zheng, G., Jing, Y., Huang, H., Shi, G. and Zhang, X. (2010) Developing a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchical Process Model for Building Energy Conservation Assessment, Renewable Energy, 35, 78-87. Zheng, J. (2011) Enterprise Knowledge Management Application Evaluation Based on Cloud Gravity Center Model and Fuzzy Extended AHP, Journal of Computers, 6(6), 11101116. Using Artificial Neural Networks To Forecast Gdp For Turkey Karaatli Meltem, Göçmen Yağcilar Gamze, Karacadal Hüseyin, Sezer Fırat Suleyman Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey E-mails: meltemkaraatli@sdu.edu.tr,gamzeyagcilar@sdu.edu.tr, huseyin_karacadal@hotmail.com,cihangir_07_@hotmail.com Abstract Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a system resembling biological neural systems and uses working principles of human brain as a base. ANN can be applied in various fields for the purposes of forecasting, classification, optimization, data binding and so on. ANN has been frequently used in financial applications in recent years. In this study, ANN is used in forecasting Gross Domestic Product of Turkey. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. GDP can be thought as the size of an economy and it is the foremost important measure of macroeconomic performance of a country, a country’s health and standard of living. Therefore, expectations about future GDP can be the primary determinant of investments, employment, wages, profits and even stock market activities. With respect to its economic 326 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1128 Title A name given to the resource A Critique On The Consistency Ratios Of Some Selected Articles Regarding Fuzzy Ahp And Sustainability Author Author Bülent, Başaran Abstract A summary of the resource. Consistency ratio (CR) is a very important indicator for achieving the reliability of an individual’s pairwise comparisons in Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Although the applications of fuzzy AHP need this kind of CR results as well, only a few of studies include these results. The most accepted method to calculate CR for fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) is to transform fuzzy numbers to crisp versions and to proceed as in the ordinary CR calculations of AHP. Triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) are usually used to present linguistic terms of an individual’s pairwise comparisons. In this research, CRs of 242 PCMs presented with TFNs, found in 39 articles, have been calculated based on four widely used defuzzification methods. The aim of this research is to find out if the PCMs of some available articles regarding sustainability issues in literature are reliable. After CR calculations of those PCMs, it has been found that some of them are reliable while many others are not. After reviewing these findings, researchers in fuzzy AHP field are expected to give much attention to those CR issues and try to obtain PCMs that are more reliable.Keywords: fuzzy AHP, consistency ratio, sustainability, defuzzification, fuzzy numbers Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/40386bd4e35c5c32152d26ca609f50a9.pdf 0e3c543a20674a21645197b3df8bdd6f PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Infectıon of Ichthyophthirius multifiliis (fouget, 1876) ın Some of the Aquarıum Fıshes (Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum gunther, 1867) ın Mersin. ¹C.Erkin Koyuncu ²Erol Tokşen 3 Serhat Taşkın ¹Department of Aquaculture, Faculty of Fisheries, Mersin University,Turkey ²Department of Aquaculture, Faculty of Fisheries, Ege University,Turkey 3Department of Aquaculture, Faculty of Fisheries, Mersin University,Turkey E-mails: ekoyuncu@mersin.edu.tr, erol.tokşen@ege.edu.tr, staşkın@mersin.edu.tr Abstract This study were conducted in October 2008 in order to find out the reason of instant mortality of Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum (Gunther, 1867) fishes in some of the aquarium facility in Mersin. The fish parasitological point of view. Ichthyophthirius multifiliis (Fouget, 1876) was found responsible high mortality. The histopathology samples from the skin tissues of infested fish were examined and hyperplasia of epithelial in the skin of the fish were markely determined. Fish were succesfully treated with FMC bath (15 mg l‫־‬¹, 60minutes/2-3day). After FMC applications the mortality stopped. 1.INTRODUCTION Commonly known as “Ich”, the white spot disease (Ichthyophthiriasis), can infect almost all freshwater fish (Ventura and Paperna, 1985). The disease is recognized as one of the most pathogenic diseases of fish caused by eukaryote parasites resulting in significant economic losses in the affected cultured fish species (Matthews, 1994). Causing infection in fish Ichthyophthirius multifiliis Fouget, 1876 are included within the genus Hymenostomatida family. The parasite is commonly distributed, occurring in tropical, subtropical and temperate regions, and extending north to the Arctic Circle (Matthews, 1994). The fish, which are cultivated in the pools of the fish farms or in the aquariums, have high numbers of Ichthyophthirius multifiliis in their skin if the enviroment is stressful, the water criteia is not appropriate and if they are given low quality feed. This situation can lead to high rates of mortality (Riehl et al. 1996). Observed in fish Ichthyophthirius multifiliis of general effects; parasites of fishes of the skin tissue between the epithelial layer into that, and reached the basal membrane mucus production by increasing irritation of the surface epithelium, mucous cells does not begin to be, skin damage and the number of parasites depending on the breathing difficulties as have been identified. Histopathologic examinations identified dropsy in lamella, hypertrophy in epithelium cells, hyperplasia, dejeneration and necrocisis in line with the degree of irrritation (Ferguson, 1989). Against the infection, formaldehyde (100-200 ppm/an hour), malachite green (1.25-2.0 ppm/30minutes,5-10 days), methylene blue (2.0ppm/one day), acriflavin (10 ppm/3-10 days), Chloramin-T (2.5-20 mg l‫־‬¹), Trypaflavine(10 mg l‫־‬¹), Brillant green (0.1-0.2 ppm) have already been used by the researchers, and they have all proved to be effective. 95 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (Van As et al. 1984; Schperclaus, 1991; Egusa, 1992; Stoskoph, 1993; Hans et al. 2000; Tokşen, 2000). In the present study; the ectoparasite Ichthyophthirius multifiliis which has been observed in cichlid (Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum Gunther, 1867) and with symptoms that make up the skin tissue that is intended to treat the disease and histopathological changes. 2.Materials and Methods: The present study has been conducted in a fish farm located in Mersin/Turkey, which cultivates aqarium fish in 2008. The study has been conducted in the cyclitis fish Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum Gunther, 1867) to learn the reason of mortality as they have 50% mortality rate (see Table 1). Total body length (cm) Number of fish (N) Mean weight (gr) ± SE 3-4 2 1,09±0,15 4-5 19 3,06±0,17 5-6 20 3,95±0,35 6-7 16 6,68±1,63 7> 10 15,73±0,86 Table 1. Mean weight for height groups Prozotoas, which live in fish as ectoparasites, leave the fish by the time the enviromental conditions change in a short time. That’s why, fish has been observed in the farm. As the first step, 67 cichlite fish’s skin, which are about to die, has been exarated so as to make preparation. Secondly, gill lamels have been extracted carefully, and they have been taken into petri dish which includes the surrounding water. These extracts are examined in terms of parasite via using microscope. The criterias and the identification of the parasites have been done according to Bykhoskaya-Pavlovskaya (1962), Bauer (1969), Nigrelli,(1976), Kabata (1985)’s studies. The photographs and measurements of the permanent parasite preparations have been done in Nikon (H550L) Phase Contrast Microscope. The lamellas including parasite have been taken to the dishes which include 10 % formaldehyde. The gills of the infected fish’s some sections has been taken histopathologically, and they have been colored via the histological sections were haematoxylin-eosin (H&E) were stained with. Histopathological examinations have been done (Takashima et al., 1995). In the volume of 30 liters of aquarium fish in ventilation for a period of 60 minutes can be made 1 liter Formaldehyde (37%), 3.7 g Methylene Blue (methylene blue powder) 3.7 gr Malachite Green (malachid green powder) was prepared from 2 ml of concentration by taking bath application of FMC were. After application of the skin and gill preparations were examined by preparing. 96 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3.Results Business owner, fish pieces in the normal 3-6 at a time the death number rise to 20-50 numbers on the complaint of the diseases were determined. Ten days later, the average daily death number has reached 100 numbers were seen contains the mortality rates. The owner of the farm stated that the mortality number increased from 3 to 6, to 20-50 abruptly. Due to this fact, the disease has been identified. After 10 days, it has been observed that the mortality rate has increased to 100 fish. The mortality rates can be seen in figure 1. 100 80 Mortality (number) 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Time(days) Figure 1. The rate of mortality after the infestation Ichthyophthirius multifiliis In the course of the days which have high mortality rate, the measurements have been conducted, and the water temperature has been identified as 24-27.5°C on average. The average absorption level of pH was 7-7.81, and the amount of oxygen dissolved in water, the average 4,4-4,8 mg / l was determined as.. In the examination done in the farm, these things have been observed in the infestated fish; , swimming closer to the floor and borders of the pool, putting their gills closer to their body, swimming faster than they usually, and even splashing to the surface of the water. It has been identified that some fish has been gathered around the entrance of water, and they have been also observed to open and close their gills in a rapid way. In many fish, many red and gray spots have been observed in skin, fin and gills even with bare eye. Prescription preparation which has been prepared from the spots’ place, there has been observed macronucleus trofont in the shape of horseshoe, and tomit in the shape oval and pear have been observed. Mature fish have been measured as 0.8-1.mm, and tomitler have been measured as 30-50 µm. (Figure 2). The number of parasites in a view range (X100) have been counted as more than 10. (Figure.2). When the preparations of the surface that include many parasites have been examined in the microsope, it has been identified that there has been a significant increase in mucus cells. In the feeding done daily, the infected fish has been observed not to take the feed, and they have seemed to be weaker than other fish. The parasite has been observed to increase its number by splitting up. The parasite has been observed to multiply by dividing. When the preparations of the surface that include many parasites have been examined in the microsope, it has been identified that there has been a significant increase in mucus cells. In 97 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the feeding done daily, the infected fish has been observed not to take the feed, and they have seemed to be weaker than other fish. The parasite has been observed to increase its number by splitting up. The parasite has been observed to multiply by dividing. Figure 2. The show are Ichthyophthirius multifiliis in dorsal view In the histopathologic examinations, it has been observed that mature parasites have entered between epitel layer, and reached to basal membrane. The cells between parasite basal membrane have been observed to be necrotik and hydropic. They have also become vacuolization. Due to the tissue reaction, it has been observed that there has been an increase in epithelial hyperplasia ve mucus cells (Figure 4). Throughout two days, (pH:7, 25°C) 2ml FMC concentration has been applied, and it has been bathed for 60 minutes to treat the disease. Also, throughout the treatment, tanks have been ventilated. The fish haven’t been given feed prior to the treatment day. Moreover, during the application, the toxic due to the medicine has not been observed. After the application, the preparations have been observed via microscope, and there has not been observed any parasite. 4. Discussion and Conclusion In this research, a common aquarium fish business in the cause of death was determineted Ichthyophthirius multifiliis. Under adverse environmental conditions Ichthyophthirius multifiliis infections grown in intensity and weak fish in fish appear to be rising too much (Kabata 1985). This study also grown in unsuitable conditions infectıon was seen in fish. Keeping the high water quality, feed residues and cleaning of the pool is very important in the control of the parasite (Oğut et al 2005). We should use appropriate feeding for fishes, instantly wipe out the wasted food from the bottom. Moreover, water circulation should be conducted in a good way and we should use ventilate enough. The most important rule is that inlet water must be filtered definitely (Woo,1995). At the month which the parasites appeared, we have observed that the water has not been ventilated enough, and the farm hasn’t got filtler system. 98 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo At the patterns of under one age of carp, in x100 zoom in, Schaperclaus (1991) suggests that when you see 5-10 parasites at one eyesight, you should treat. In this research, we have taken some samples from the skin and gills of juvenils of cihklit. We have found 1060 parasites on an average. Ventura and paperna (1985) once in the host of the parasite is located in the epithelial layer is reported. Epithelial cell layer of the timing of parasite development had increased in number and development period, such as a capsule covering the parasites are indicated. Tokşen (2000) reported that in raınbow trout fish experimentally infected with I.multifiliis, an increase in the number of cells, mucus with hyperplasia is reported. In this study prepared under the late histopatholojik sections trofont epidermis and dermis was determined that the best accommodation. Epithelial cell hyperplasia in the region of interference settlement have been identified. As for this research, in the district of Mersin/Turkey, FMC has been applied for 60 minutes bathing throughout two days, and it has proved to be effective for parasite. Via this research, the ectoparasite which causes sudden mortality in Chiklit ICH has been identified. Moreover, the clinical symptoms and its effects on gill tissues have been identified histopathologically. As a result, the fish has been treated with FMC 2 ml concentration for 60 minutes. REFERENCES Bauer ON (1969) Key to the Parasites of Freshwater Fauna of The USSR, Vol.1, Leningrad, Vol 1, 428. Bykhovskaya-Pavlovskaya IE, Gusev AV, Dubinina MN, Izyumova NA, Smirova TS. Sokolovskaya IL, Shtein GA, Shulman SS. & Epshtein VH (1962) Key To Parasites Freshwater Fishes of the USSR. Izdatel’stvo Akademi Nauk S.S.S.R., Moskova, Leningrad: 1-919. Egusa S (1992) Infectıons Diseases of Fish A.A Balkema/Rotterdam, Bookfield, 696. Ferguson HW 1989 Systemik Pathology of Fish. Iowa State University Press, USA, 1260 . Kabata Z (1985) Parasites and Diseases of fish cultured in the Tropics. Taylor & Francis (Eds.), London: 1-318. Kinne O (1984) Diseases of marine animals. Vol. IV, Part I, Introductions, Pisces. Hamburg. Biologische Anstalt Helgoland, 114-179. Matthews RA (1994) Ichthyophthirius multifiliis Fouquet, 1876: Infection and protective response within the fish host. In (Pike AW & Lewis JW Eds.), pp.17-42. Parasitic Disease of Fish. Samara Publishing, Tresaith, UK. Nigrelli RF, Pokorny KS, Ruggieri GD (1976) Notes on Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, a ciliate parasitic on freshwater fishes, with some remarks on possiblephysiological races and species. Trans. Amer. Fish. Soc., 95: 607-613. Ogut H, Akyol A, Alkan MZ (2005) Seasonality of Ichthyophthirius multifiliis in the Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) Farms of the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey Turkish Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 5: 23-27 Ribelin EW& Migaki G (1975) The Patology of Fishes. The University of Wiscosin Press, USA, 117-143. 99 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Riehl R, Baensch H.A (1996) Aquarium Atlas, Publishers of Natural History and Pet Books, Germany, 1-991. Schaperclaus W (1991) Fish Diseases Volume 2 A.A Balkema/Rotterdam, 1397. Stoskoph MK (1993) Fish Medicine, W.B. Saunders company, PA, USA, 882. Takashıma F & Hıbıya T (1995) An Atlas of Fish Histology Normal and Patholological Features. Second Edition, Kodansa Ltd., Tokyo, 195. Tokşen E (2000) Ege Bölgesinde Bir Alabalık (Onchorhynchus mykiss) İşletmesinde Görülen Ichthyophthirius multifiliis Fouget, 1876 Enfeksiyonu ve Tedavisi, Bornova Vet. Kont. Araşt. Enst. Dergisi, 25 (39) 59-64. Ventura MT& Paperna I (1985) Histopathology of Ichthyophthirius multifiliis infections in fishes. Journal of Fish Biology 27, 185-203. Woo PTK (1995) Fish Diseases and Disorders.CAB International. 200-202. Researches on Protection, Propagation and Sustainable Usage of Native Bulbous Plants of Turkey Özgül Karagüzel1, İbrahim Baktır2, Deniz Hazar3, Gülden Yılmaz2 1 Western Mediterranean Research Institute, Antalya 2Akdeniz University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Horticulture, Antalya 3Akdeniz University, Kumluca Vocational School, Antalya E-mail: tezkara@yahoo.com Abstract Over 1000 flowering bulbous plants are naturally grown in Turkey. Flowering bulbs exportation has been in effect for years from Turkey. In recent years, exportation has been under strict control, it has been realized according to yearly given quota by The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestocks. Even though the present regulations and status, negligable amount of illegal wild collections are still going on. A number of researches has been conduted to prevent illegal collections and meantime to encourage artificial propagations and sustainable uses. These projects are mainly financed by the concern ministries, research institutes and universities. A good scale of geophyte exibition garden has been establised in Yalova Provience to take the interest of people and administrative staff. The present research projects are mainly concentrated on some well known flowering species such as tulips, hyacinthus, crocus, stenbergia, iris, fritillaria, snowdrop, lilies so on. Keywords: Geophytes, sustainability, researches 100 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1232 Title A name given to the resource The Infectıon of Ichthyophthirius multifiliis (fouget, 1876) ın Some of the Aquarıum Fıshes (Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum gunther, 1867) ın Mersin Author Author C.Erkin , Koyuncu Abstract A summary of the resource. This study were conducted in October 2008 in order to find out the reason of instant mortality of Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum (Gunther, 1867) fishes in some of the aquarium facility in Mersin. The fish parasitological point of view. Ichthyophthirius multifiliis (Fouget, 1876) was found responsible high mortality. The histopathology samples from the skin tissues of infested fish were examined and hyperplasia of epithelial in the skin of the fish were markely determined. Fish were succesfully treated with FMC bath (15 mg l־¹, 60minutes/2-3day). After FMC applications the mortality stopped. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f39eca056d5903e344e4ae6d699aa1da.pdf 3f31b672612ef7dbb9aeedee5ed098f1 PDF Text Text The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) website in the context of sustainable development Emir Cickusic, Teo Domuz, Anisa Topalovic, Emir Becirovic International Burch University, Faculty of Economics, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mails: ecickusic@hotmail.com, teo3520@yahoo.com, anisatopalovic@gmail.com, emirbecirovic@hotmail.com Abstract The objective of this study was to examine one real world e-business system in this case www.iisd.org website (International Institute for Sustainable Development) through specific standard website specifications or checklists. Website was evaluated through eight different sets of criteria. Website www.iisd.org is compared to standard criteria and results revealed that website www.iisd.org have some weaknesses but also and strengths. Findings show that website has good inflow of information but organization and positioning of data is very poor. In the present time, most of the importance is given to the e-business system due to the radical changes in technology. Internet is a huge market and in order to succeed website need to have certain criteria which will attract customers and retain them. Keywords: e-business, sustainable development, environmental impacts, IISD 1. INTRODUCTION The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is a Canadian-based, public policy research institute that has a long history of conducting cutting-edge research into sustainable development. IISD promotes the transition toward a sustainable future; they seek to demonstrate how human ingenuity can be applied to improve the well-being of the environment, economy and society.45 45 http://www.iisd.org/about/ 534 �When you think of the world as a system over space, you grow to understand that air pollution from North America affects air quality in Asia, and that pesticides sprayed in Argentina could harm fish stocks off the coast of Australia. And when you think of the world as a system over time, you start to realize that the decisions our grandparents made about how to farm the land continue to affect agricultural practice today; and the economic policies we endorse today will have an impact on urban poverty when our children are adults. We also understand that quality of life is a system, too. It's good to be physically healthy, but what if you are poor and don't have access to education? It's good to have a secure income, but what if the air in your part of the world is unclean? And it's good to have freedom of religious expression, but what if you can't feed your family? The concept of sustainable development is rooted in this sort of systems thinking. It helps us understand ourselves and our world. The problems we face are complex and serious—and we can't address them in the same way we created them. But we can address them. It's that basic optimism that motivates IISD's staff, associates and board to innovate for a healthy and meaningful future for this planet and its inhabitant.46 46 http://www.iisd.org/sd 535 �In present time there are two main drivers that change global economy. First one is huge development of technology (Internet) and all businesses are radically shifting toward the sustainable development. These drivers can transform companies and markets. The world is in the midst of multidimensional transformation: technological, economic, social, cultural and political (Handzic et al. 2010). To be successful in nowadays needed is to improve in technological direction especially information systems. Competition is very fierce so organizations must have a website based system. Internet as a whole is a very dynamic and powerful generator so website needs to be day to day updated and to follow some general rules and criteria. These criteria (indicators) are a measure for a well prepared website and provide a huge contribution to the quality of website. Indicators don’t guarantee results. But results are impossible without proper indicators. And proper indicators, in themselves, can produce results.47 3. Research Method This study was examined through specific criteria for website. It examines website through nine different sets of criteria:48 1) First impression - is very important. If the website is not functioning very well and if it is not accurate than potential customers create a bad image about it and they may not return back. 2) Navigation - stands for being offered an easy way to find way around the website. 3) Content - stands for useful and valuable information’s and key to good content is that it must be extensive and original. 4) Attractors - draw individuals and other organizations to the website. 5) Findability - stands for ease of finding website in the first place. 6) Making contact– many interacting and negotiating. organizations 47 . http://www.iisd.org/pdf/s_ind_2.pdf 48 http://www.mcil.co.uk/review/7-10-criteria.htm 536 demand some contact information for �7) Browser Compatibility – make the website visit a much more useful and pleasant experience. 8) User satisfaction – satisfying the users is essential part so the users will co me again. 9) Other useful information – giving additional information will build confidence in customer’s minds 4. Results Evaluation of www.iisd.org website Score 1. FIRST IMPRESSIONS 537 URL 8 Download time - size of home page 10 Look and feel - readability 5 Need to download software * 8 Home page on one screen (above the fold) 7 Unique Selling Point (USP) or Value Proposition 10 Ability to take action (Key action point – KAP) 9 Feeling of wanting more - depth of site 9 Contact details 10 Credential validation - certifications, associations 0 Statement from management 10 Use of attractors 10 Are you made to register to get into site? 10 �Total score for section (max 130) 106 2. NAVIGATION Ease of use 6 Site map 10 Return to Home Page from any page 10 Internal search engine 10 Internal links 10 Broken links 10 Text as well as graphic links (ALT tags) 10 Navigational links visible 10 Opens multiple windows 10 Total score for section (max 90) 86 3. CONTENT 538 Useful information 10 Degree of substantiated information 9 Level of interaction 8 Use of valuable graphics 8 Use of valuable animation 7 Use of valuable sound 2 Reviews, testimonials and certifications 10 �Content in digestible quantity 7 Up-to-dateness 10 Terms and conditions 10 FAQ’s 10 Availability of follow up discussion 10 Total score for section (max 120) 101 4. ATTRACTORS Invitation to register for something 10 Competitions 6 Special offers 7 Freebies 9 Breaking news 10 External links 9 Newsletter 10 Other (Specify) 539 �Total score for section (max 70) 61 5. FINDABILITY Intuitive URL 5 Designed for search engine performance 8 Intuitive keywords 8 Use of metatags 9 Advertising On-line advertising 3 Off-line advertising 0 On-line recommend a friend 0 Partner and affiliate sites 8 Total score for section (max 80) 41 6. MAKING CONTACT Email and other details visible 540 10 �Use of online forms 10 Telephone contact number provided 10 Telephone call back offered 10 Total score for section (max 40) 40 7. BROWSER COMPATIBILITY Internet Explorer 8 Google Chrome 9 Mozilla Firefox 9 Resizeability 10 Total score for section (40) 36 8. USER SATISFACTION Robustness/reliability of the site 9 Clicks to completion 10 Acknowledge order/request 0 541 �Order/request tracking online 0 Retain personal information to minimise detail Entering 0 Total score for section (max 50) 19 9. OTHER USEFUL INFORMATION List of career opportunities 10 Contact details for HR department 0 Financial results 10 Up-to-date financial news 8 Stock prices 0 History of the company 10 Management and geographical structure of company 542 Mission statement 10 10 Up-to-date press coverage 10 Total score for section (max 90) 40 OVERALL TOTAL SCORE (max 710) 530 �Main Findings Criteria Website score Max. score 1. First impression 106 130 2. Navigation 86 90 3. Content 101 120 4. Attractors 61 70 5. Findability 41 80 6. Making contact 40 40 7. Browser Compatibility 36 40 8. User satisfaction 19 50 9. Other useful infor. 40 90 Overall total score 530 710 In the first impression URL is short but not very intuitive. Size of the home page is not exceeding normal 50kb which is a good point. Main disadvantage is that text is too much cluttered on the website and another problem is there is a need for installation of java plug-in which can make problems for beginners. Home page is needed to be scrolled down to read all the text instead of being it centered on one place. Main advantage is when entering website immediately objectives and usage of website are well known. Contact details are easy accessible and there is no need for any registration. Navigation system is pretty good developed. Site index and access from any links are working. There is a search engine so all data can be looked up through search engine. When entering into many internal links there is always an option to return to a home page with one single click. Content is mostly filled with great information which is needed for those groups of users. There is a usage of audio and video on website and many links which will guide you to the needed information but disadvantage is that text is very cluttered in many places so it is hard readable. All information’s are always updated and content is available in different languages. In attractors section main advantage is that there is no need for the registration on the website so all users can easily reach all information without annoying memberships and every time there are some breaking news which will give users reasons to come back. Everything is provided with external links and main point is that website has its own newsletter for the ir users. 543 �Findability section has many disadvantages such as online advertising and offline advertising. Advertising is not so much developed but rather they focus more on the good keywords and short URL. Making contact gathered full points for it good and well organized contact section. Briefly everything is explained. There are all needed e-mails, addresses and their location of departments. On the website there is Contact Us section which provide needed information. Browser Compatibility is doing just fine especially on Google Chrome but there may be some small resolution problems on Internet Explorer. A resize ability problem occurs when resizing the browser. User satisfaction is a major part and all attention should be given to this part. Reliability of the website is very good since website is stable and didn’t crash any time. Clicks to completion are short so information are easy accessible. On the website other useful information are also provided. Financial statements, Career Opportunities, Board Members, Calendar of Events, FAQ, and Sustainability report. Implications During the research there were some implications like browser compatibility since it is hard to evaluate browser compatibility when all computers had already installed java flash player or other plug-ins so browser don’t recognize any problems when website is opened but having a fresh installed copy of windows would show different. Another implication occurred when evaluating the frames of the website, extensions. Limitations and Future Research There were several limitations due to the lack of professional stuff. For the better evaluation of the website there is a need of professional computer engineers which will also evaluate the website through the html codes. Computer engineers knows more about website extensions and plug-ins so future research would be more focused on evaluating a website with harsh criteria and evaluation of website through the survey of random chosen people which will give their opinion of the website. There is a need for larger group of people which will divide tasks and provide more data about every section. Survey will give additional information where possible outcomes and results would change due to the positive or negative feedback of the surveyed users. 544 �6. CONCLUSIONS This study examined how the e-business system correlates and helps to deal with sustainable development. In present times where scarce resources are lacking than need of retaining it is important so awareness of sustainable factor through the website is much easier since it affects larger groups of people. Now, everyone is trying to promote its business through the internet. In order to gain competitive advantage on the internet there is a need for a good and well developed website. To gain statuses of nearly perfect website there have to be some criteria so the users can find and meet their requirements when searching online. To gain competitive advantage usage of links, visual animations, updated news, customer oriented website must be given in certain ratio. Website www.iisd.org (The International Institute for Sustainable Development) give users all information about the sustainable development and putting the awareness of sustainable development on higher level. Screen shot of the International Institute for Sustainable Development website 545 �Source: http://www.iisd.org/ REFERENCES http://www.iisd.org/about/ http://www.iisd.org/sd/ Indicators and Information systems (http://www.iisd.org/pdf/s_ind_2.pdf) for Sustainable Development http://www.mcil.co.uk/review/7-10-criteria.htm 5. Ten criteria to evaluate the website (http://www.mcil.co.uk/review/7-10-criteria.htm) Handzic, M., Obralic, M. and Cickusic, E. (2011). The Use of IT Tools in Everyday Classes Where Foreign Language is Taught. In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Foereign Language Teaching and Applied Linguistics (FLTAL 2011), pp. 546–551. Sarajevo, 5-7 May. 546 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1212 Title A name given to the resource The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) website in the context of sustainable development Author Author CICKUSIC, Emir Abstract A summary of the resource. The objective of this study was to examine one real world e-business system in this case www.iisd.org website (International Institute for Sustainable Development) through specific standard website specifications or checklists. Website was evaluated through eight different sets of criteria. Website www.iisd.org is compared to standard criteria and results revealed that website www.iisd.org have some weaknesses but also and strengths. Findings show that website has good inflow of information but organization and positioning of data is very poor. In the present time, most of the importance is given to the e-business system due to the radical changes in technology. Internet is a huge market and in order to succeed website need to have certain criteria which will attract customers and retain them. Keywords: e-business, sustainable development, environmental impacts, IISD Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),T Technology (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/53c3fb9a889ac776282a13d28f45e107.pdf 57b46472dffd31af016008e742598c70 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Islamic Finance as a Means of Shaping the Future of Sustainable Finance Can Mehmet International University of Sarajevo Hrasnička Cesta 15, 71210 Ilidža/Sarajevo,Bosnia and Herzegovina mcan@ius.edu.ba Abstract The recent financial crises have proven that the major social impact of the activities of the most major commercial and investment banks is through improper management of transaction, portfolio and reputational risks. Although they and their key stakeholders agree that financiers bear significant responsibility for the environmental and social impacts of the operations they finance, they do not go beyond the recognition of environmental and social responsibilities driven to a large degree by outside pressures of environmental organizations such as Friends of the Earth (FoE) and the Rainforest Action Network (RAN). They challenged the industry with high-profile campaigns that highlighted cases in which commercial banks were “bankrolling disasters”. In 2002, a global coalition of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) including FoE, RAN, WWF-UK and the Berne Declaration came together to promote sustainable finance in the commercial sector. This informal network subsequently evolved into BankTrack, whose vision for a sustainable finance sector was expressed in the Collevecchio Declaration of January 2003. In this paper we will put forward the main agent in improper management of transaction, portfolio and reputational risks of commercial banks, the interest rate. No economic system can sustain its health and vigor or contribute positively to the achievement of its socioeconomic goals without the support of sane and equitable money and banking system. The money and banking system should hence be reformed to eschew the excesses and imbalances which promote inequalities, conspicuous consumption, and unhealthy monetary expansion to the ultimate detriment of all. Keywords: Sustainable finance, Islamic finance, financial crises, interest free finance 1.INTRODUCTION The rapid growth of Islamic finance and its ethical foundations make it an increasingly serious alternative to conventional finance. Both New York and London have launched indices affiliated to their main Dow Jones and FTSE indices, to provide a benchmark for equity prices for investments in Islamic financial institutions. The UK Government has also played a major role in trying to make the City of London the global centre of Islamic finance by extending support wherever possible, including the abolition of double stamp duty on Islamic mortgages, and the recently announced plans to test the feasibility of issuing Shari’ahcompliant sukuk bonds. The 2007 Budget introduced new measures for sukuk bonds to be issued, held and traded on the UK financial market (Tayyebi, 2008). 1 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Islamic finance claims to be compliant with the principles of Islamic law (Shari’ah). In terms of finance, indeed Shari’ah explains in detail the ethical concepts of money and capital, the relationship between risk and profit and the social responsibilities of financial institutions. The most well-known aspect of an Islamic financial system is the prohibition of paying or receiving interest on capital. Essentially, any positive, fixed, predetermined rate tied to the maturity and the amount of principal, which is guaranteed irrespective of the performance of the investment, is considered riba and is so prohibited. Contractual risk is also forbidden. In general, this prohibits the selling of goods or services that the seller is not in a position to deliver or the making of a contract which is conditional on an unknown event. Although the prohibition of interest can indeed is viewed as the nucleus of Islamic doctrine relating to finance, there are a number of other supporting principles which provide guidance for an Islamic financial system (Tayyebi, 2008): • Advocating risk sharing • Promotion of entrepreneurship • Discouraging speculative behavior • Preservation of property rights. Given the restrictions outlined above, modern-day scholars have developed principle modes of financing which can be applied to contemporary financial scenarios while adhering to Islamic principles. Some common financial instruments currently being utilized in Islamic finance in various forms are as follows. Murabaha: this is effectively cost-plus financing, as used for trade and asset finance, allowing deferred payment by customers. Istisna’a: aimed at long-term construction projects For asset finance Ijara: this is a quasi-debt instrument, essentially equivalent to leasing. Equity-like instruments Musharakah: this is akin to a joint venture arrangement, through an equity participation contract. Mudarabah: this is essentially an investment fund where one party provides the entire capital, and the other party provides the management. Profit sharing is agreed up-front, although the loss is borne by the provider of the funds alone. 2 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Fixed income investment Sukuk: this is an investment certificate (bond) that represents a proportionate interest in a well-defined pool of assets that yield income and capital returns. Differences of opinion from Shari’ah scholars on whether certain practices or products are Shari’ah compliant continue. A common set of standards and closer links between regulators and standard setters such as AAOIFI, the IFSB and the FSA are crucial. The nuances of Islamic jurisprudence and its assimilation with conventional banking require a great deal of expertise. Investment in training and formal qualifications will be vital to attract and maintain the right level of professionals to allow the industry to develop. As would be expected with a relatively recent phenomenon, there remain legitimate concerns over the mechanics and regulation of Islamic finance. Although, a Congressional Research Service report on Islamic finance in July 2008 notes: ‘Some also view the integration of ethics and values into finance as a positive development, with many investors reportedly considering SCF (Shari’ah compliant finance) to be more reliable than conventional financing, given the recent global credit crisis and fears of economic recession’, many religious Muslims still are not confident about the Shari’ah compliance of Islamic finance. The most serious questions around the Shari’ah compliancy of Islamic finance are related to the income smoothing. Islamic banks are more inclined to set up an allowance for loan loss provision (LLPs) to absorb any future losses (Taktak, et.al. 2010; Ahmed et. al. 1999; Anandarajan et. al. 2003, 2005; Hasan et.al 2004; Ismail et. al. 2002, 2005; Zoubi 2007). To avoid bank runs, Islamic financial institutions are also encouraged by Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB), and their Shari’ah Boards to use profit equalization (PERs) and investment risk reserves (IRRs) (Sundararajan 2007) to keep stable returns to reward investment account holders (IFSB 2010). They also use devices like deposit insurance (DIs). Income smoothing devices cause an almost constant return rate seemingly bench marked to the London Interbank Offered Rate, LIBOR. In this research, possible outcomes of the removal of one the most important devices of the income smoothing, profit equalization reserves (PERs) is discussed. 2.Income Smoothing by Profit Equalization Reserves (PERs) PER is a mechanism act to mitigate the fluctuation of Rates of Return arising from the flux of income, provisioning and total deposits (Child, 2009). 3 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The creation of PER is to ensure that Islamic Banking Institutions (IBIs) Rates of Return remained competitive and stable. During times of low returns to depositors and investors, IBIs can choose to utilize the PER to improve and stabilize the Rate of Return to its depositors and investors. The main purpose is to protect depositors and investors interest as far as possible. Currently, PER can be allocated up to a maximum 15% of the total gross income every month. The formula for how much PER can be allocated is as follows: PER (maximum monthly provision) = (15% x gross income) + net trading income + other income + irregular income such as recovery of non-performing financing (NPF) and write back of provisions. In Malaysia, as per BNM Guidelines, IBIs are only allowed to maintain a maximum accumulated PER of 30% of Islamic Banking Shareholders’ Fund. The IBIs may write back the PER into the total gross income, at their discretion, in the event that the prevailing rates have become less competitive. PER is recognized as a liability in the Balance Sheet and as an expense in the Income Statement. 3.Misconception by IBIs on PER Although IBIs are given the right to allocate some of its income into PER, it is not right for IBIs to treat PER as another source of income as most bankers assume. PER is a way on how an IBI can manage or control its Rates of Returns. By right, any income generated from the utilization of funds i.e. depositors funds, must be returned back in full to customers accordingly. But this may be a partly solution since the depositors due to change by the time, a profit realized by one’s investment will be paid to an irrelevant investor. The best is the abolishment of all income smoothing devices. What Happens if Profit Equalization Reserves (PERs) are Removed? Islamic banks afraid of the bank run, if they reflect the real profits and losses of investments in their periodic profit and loss share dividend distribution reports. It is not possible to have an excess to the exact data of the profit and loss reports of Islamic financial institutions just like others. Since their long term profit dividends are around LIBOR, we may create hypothetical scenarios about the history of the return rates of a certain Islamic Bank, which distributes normally with a mean of LIBOR and with several variances. Let as assume that LIBOR is around 3% in the 120 months of the period of our study: 4 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 10 20 30 40 50 60 (a) 5 4 3 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 40 50 60 (b) 6 4 2 10 20 30 60 (c) 5 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 10 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 5 (d) Figure 1. Return rates of investors in four scenarios with expected value around LIBOR, and with several STDVs; a) 0.1, b) 1.0, c) 2.0, and d) 3.0 Although expected monetary values (EMVs) are almost the same, around LIBOR of these nightmare scenarios for Islamic Bank managers, they are different in the risk they undertake. 3.1 Risk Profile of Investors To predict the investor response to these scenarios, EMVs are not sufficient, and we must run a field work with the questions derived from the underlying probability distributions of these scenarios which also take the risk averseness of the investors (Khan et. al. 2001; Sundararajan 2005, 2007). Which business you invest? Table 1. Investments in the below gave 30 times at most r1%, 70 times r2% return in their 100 months history. Investment r1% r2% Choice 1 2.95 3.05 2 2.50 3.50 3 2.00 4.00 4 1.50 4.50 6 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo None The distribution of choices between alternatives gives the risk profile of potential investors in the society of the Islamic Bank which it operates in. If this research reveals that many investors are still eager to invest under higher risks of Investment 3, and 4, the Bank managers should not hesitate to abolish profit equalization reserves (PERs). 3.2 Utility of Profit Shares for Muslim Investors Because of the prospective utility understanding of human beings, and interest rate averseness of Muslim investors, we may expect a utility profile for Muslim investors as follows. Islamic Bank managers must run a field work with the questions relevant for eliciting potential investors in the country if not globally. Figure 2. Utility profile of a Muslim investor. To this hypothetic investor, the highest possible return rate 7% has the utility 1. The lowest acceptable return rate -2% (2% loss) has the utility 0, and the midpoint of 0.5 utility is given to 1.5% return rate. 3.3 Decision Trees for Muslim Investors For the Muslim investors, do not have any incentive in deviating from investing at an “interest rate free” business, to an “interest rate paying” one. A Risky Islamic Bank’s Profit Loss Sharing accounts return rate history reveals that the next time bucket may give annual 4.5% profit share with probability 0.7, and annual 1.5% profit share with probability 0.3, while a traditional commercial bank gives the LIBOR of 3%. The expected monetary value (EMV) of Profit Loss Sharing Account is 3.6%, while invest g the capital in a traditional commercial bank gives LIBOR for sure. Although Islamic Banks EMV is higher, EMV is not so effective on the decisions since it does not take the risk factor into account. If the risk factor is counted, any risk adverse investor without Islamic values may be indifferent between the two options. Risk profiles of decision makers are represented in their utility profiles. We can demonstrate it better on a decision tree: 7 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 3. Decision tree for a Muslim investor. Considering the utility profile of the hypothetic Muslim investor in Figure 2, the utility of profit share rate of 4.5% has the utility 0.825, while the utility of profit share rate of 1.5% has the utility 0. 5. Therefore the expected utility of Islamic Bank’s Profit Loss Sharing account is 0.73, while the utility of a traditional commercial bank investment is zero. The other most important factor related to the bank runs is the prospective utility perception of investors. 3.4 Prospective Utility Perception of Investors Prospective utility is widely used by investors. They tolerate temporal loses, if there is a potential higher profit possibility. To understand how prospective utility understanding works, we may use exponential smoothing (Brandimarte, 2011). Let us consider the above four rate of return data, as time series. Along the time, investors use these data to formulate their prospective expectations for the next time bucket. The graphs in Figure 2 reveals that temporal losses do not discourage investors, taking the past data into consideration, they are ready to give time to the Islamic Bank managers to compensate these losses. 8 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (a) 5 4 3 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 (b) 9 60 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 6 4 2 10 20 30 40 50 60 (c) 10 5 10 20 30 40 50 60 5 (d) Figure 4. Prospective utilities of investors (squares) in the view of realizations of the variable return rates in Figure 1. 4.CONCLUSION When they smooth their accounts, Islamic bank Managers and their Sharia Boards think that, if they reflect the real profits and losses of investments in their periodic profit and loss share dividend distribution reports, they will confront with the bank run. In this article it has been shown through hypothetic scenarios that, Bank managers should not hesitate to abolish profit equalization reserves (PERs) and other account smoothing devices to save the image of Islamic Banking as an interest rate free alternative to the traditional banking. Of course prior confirmations of these hypothetic scenarios are necessary through serious field researches. 10 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo REFERENCES Ahmed, A.S., Takeda, C., Thomas, S. (1999), Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 28 No.1, pp.1-25. Anandarajan, A., Hasan, I., Loranzo-Vivas, A. (2003), The role of loan loss provisions in earnings management, capital management, and signaling: the Spanish experience, Advances in International Accounting, Vol. 16 pp.43-63. Anandarajan, A., Hasan, I., Lozano-Vivas, A. (2005), "Loan loss provision decisions: an empirical analysis of the Spanish depository institutions", Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Vol. 14 No.1, pp.55-77. Brandimarte, P. (2011) Quantitative Methods: An Introduction for Business Management, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey, pp. 546-550. Child S., 2009, Profit Equalization Reserve (Per), http://myviewpoint2u.blogspot.com/2009/07/profit-equalization-reserve-per.html Goodwin P., and G. Wright, (2004) Decision Analysis For Management Judgment, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England., pp. 95-123. Hasan, I., Wall, L. (2004), "Determinants of the loan loss allowance: some cross-country comparison", The Financial Review, Vol. 39 No.1, pp.129-52. Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) (2010), "Guidance note on the practice of smoothing the profits payout to investment account holders", Exposure Draft. Ismail, A.G., Be Lay, A.T. (2002), "Bank loans portfolio composition and the disclosure of loan loss provision: an empirical evidence of Malaysian banks", Asian Review of Accounting, Vol. 10 No.1, pp.147-62. Ismail, A.G., Shaharudin, R.S., Samudhram, A.R. (2005), Do Malaysian banks manage earnings through loan loss provisions? Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, Vol. 3 No.1, pp.41-7. Khan, T., Ahmed, H. (2001), Risk Management an analysis of Issues in Islamic Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank, Jeddah, Occasional Paper No. 9. 11 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Sundararajan, V. (2005), Risk measurement and disclosure in Islamic finance and the implications of profit sharing investment accounts, paper prepared at the Sixth International Conference on Islamic Economics, Banking, and Finance, Jakarta, Indonesia, 22-24. Sundararajan, V. (2007), Risk characteristics of Islamic product: implications for risk measurements and supervision, in Archer, S., Karim, R.A.A. (Eds), Islamic Finance: The Regulatory Challenge, Wiley, Singapore, pp.40-68. Sundararajan, V. (2008), Issues in managing profit equalization reserves and investment risk reserves in Islamic banks, Journal of Islamic Economics, Banking and Finance, Vol. 4 No.1, pp.1-12. Taktak, N. B., S. B. S. Zouari, and A. K. Boudriga, (2010) Do Islamic banks use loan loss provisions to smooth their results?, Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, Volume: 1, Number: 2, pp: 114-127. Tayyebi, A., (2008), Islamic Finance: ethical alternative to conventional finance? The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants. http://www.yasni.co.uk/ext.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww2.accaglobal.com%2Fpdfs%2Fisl amic_finance_paper.pdf&name=Aziz+Tayyebi&cat=document&showads=1 Zoubi, T.A., Al-Khazali, O. (2007), "Empirical testing of the loss provisions of banks in the GCC region", Managerial Finance, Vol. 33 No.7, pp.500-11. 12 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1276 Title A name given to the resource Islamic Finance as a Means of Shaping the Future of Sustainable Finance Author Author Can , Mehmet Abstract A summary of the resource. The recent financial crises have proven that the major social impact of the activities of the most major commercial and investment banks is through improper management of transaction, portfolio and reputational risks. Although they and their key stakeholders agree that financiers bear significant responsibility for the environmental and social impacts of the operations they finance, they do not go beyond the recognition of environmental and social responsibilities driven to a large degree by outside pressures of environmental organizations such as Friends of the Earth (FoE) and the Rainforest Action Network (RAN). They challenged the industry with high-profile campaigns that highlighted cases in which commercial banks were “bankrolling disasters”. In 2002, a global coalition of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) including FoE, RAN, WWF-UK and the Berne Declaration came together to promote sustainable finance in the commercial sector. This informal network subsequently evolved into BankTrack, whose vision for a sustainable finance sector was expressed in the Collevecchio Declaration of January 2003. In this paper we will put forward the main agent in improper management of transaction, portfolio and reputational risks of commercial banks, the interest rate. No economic system can sustain its health and vigor or contribute positively to the achievement of its socioeconomic goals without the support of sane and equitable money and banking system. The money and banking system should hence be reformed to eschew the excesses and imbalances which promote inequalities, conspicuous consumption, and unhealthy monetary expansion to the ultimate detriment of all. Keywords: Sustainable finance, Islamic finance, financial crises, interest free finance Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f6ebb48c6787ede774c64947418bcee8.pdf dda8b8e5646bcaf3f5133b900c0dfda7 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Lean Way Of Valuing Inventory Cengiz, Emre Akdeniz University ALTSO Vocational School emrecengiz@akdeniz.edu.tr Research Title: Subject: This study illustrates the actual cost calculations for inventory valuation for lean companies. The study will explain “the number of days method and unit quantity method” and highlight their differences between the traditional inventory valuation methods. Abstract American manufacturers which are choosing are lean principles as their basic business model, increasingly looking to lean thinking to improve productivity, reduce costs, enhance flexibility, create better value for their customers, and raise profits, cash flow, and stock price. The basic principles of lean thinking are based some solid factors namely profits are earned by selling products; value streams deliver customer satisfaction; nonfinancial operational data helps line workers manage business processes; real-time data is needed to enable process improvement; idle time is okay if there are no customer orders to fill at the moment; the goal of world-class organizations is to improve actual performance at a faster rate than competitors; front-line employees are an asset that should be cross-trained and highly skilled. Moreover, the cardinal rule of lean management is eliminating all unnecessary steps that create waste. In this context, lean accounting seeks to reduce steps in transaction processing, eliminate standard costs in favor of actual costs, and discontinue cost allocations. The traditional mass production companies which are typically advocators of standard costing see inventory as the largest current asset on traditional manufacturer s balance sheet and naturally, a traditional manufacturer use their inventory asset for collateral for bank lines of credit. Thus, lot of cash is tied up in the inventory. The traditional manufacturer inventory valuation is not based on an actual cost system. For instance, a company with inventory turns of 3.00 has four months of inventory on hand, which means it must use the actual production cost system for the last four months to value inventory. This absolutely obviates to maintain an actual cost system. On the other hand, lean companies aim to eliminate work in process and finished goods inventory with high inventory turns. A shrinking inventory value on a balance sheet based on real time cost information which in turn becomes a smaller percentage of total current assets is a typically way of doing for lean companies. This study illustrates the actual cost calculations for inventory valuation. The study will explain “the number of days method and unit quantity method” and highlight their differences between the traditional inventory valuation methods. Keywords: Lean Accounting, Inventory Valuation, Number of Days Method, Unit Quantity Method 258 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.LEAN PRODUCTION Since the early 1980s, the market conditions faced with intensive global competition have led to many leading manufacturing companies to adopt new production approaches. Especially in the most prominent of these approaches is the concept of lean production. Lean manufacturing is a sophisticated approach that consists of quality systems, work teams, cellular manufacturing, and supply management and so on. It integrates many management applications. The core motivation behind the concept of lean production is working in synergy with these applications in a continuous manner through progressive and high quality systems according to customer demand but no or little waste at the end (Shah and Ward 2003, Kennedy and Widener 2008). Product / service features generate income but if only if the customer value to them. If the added features do not add value in respect of the customer perspective, this will only create waste. This kind of waste is especially a pure waste which the management should be striving to prevent in order to gain a successful market share. The primary issue in developing product / service differentiation is using different customer preferences that add value not a bunch of waste (McNair 2007). Fuji Cho (Toyota Manager) defines waste as follows: “anything other than the minimum amount of equipment, material, parts, space, and worker’s time which are absolutely essential to add value to the product” (Huntzinger 2007). According to Ohno'ya Taiichi "Toyota production system of the company lies on the basis of absolute waste prevention" (Grasso 2005). Prevention of waste provides significant improvements to the operation cost, productivity, quality and timely delivery of products improvements (Woehrle and AbouShady, 2010). Lean approach is not a striving effort for a zero waste and creating a perfect result. This approach is a never-ending journey of continuous improvement that seeks to create better and less wasteful results than previously known methods (Shah and Ward 2003). In other words, the lean production aims to decrease waste by increasing customer value (Carnes and Hedin 2005). Then, it would be possible for the stakeholders to share these earnings that lean creates (Grasso 2005). Lean manufacturing aims to reduce labor force in the company, stock, defective products, the factory occupied area, cycle time, scrap and rework costs and, at the same time leads to increase productivity, quality and output. Such a restructuring, which would save time and factory space, would provide product quality monitoring and improvement. Stock at all levels may have a negative factor and thus, should be controlled (Carnes and Hedin 2005). 1.1.The Factors of Lean Production If world-wide surveys conducted at the factory levels are considered, following applications under the framework of lean production are observed (Jusko 1999):    259 Equipment set-up time efficiency Facilitating the production of small batches of equipment and work stations arranged in cellular production. A cell, which is in close proximity with another cell, thus, provides a quick feedback between the operators and includes all activities that are usually necessary for the production of a component or sub-components. Manufacturing cells often consist of cross-trained employees to perform multiple tasks. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo   Just-in-time production / continuous production flow techniques are deployed to reduce batch sizes, reduce setup time, decrease severely the work-in process inventory levels, improve work / time ratio and reduce manufacturing cycle time. Just-in time generally use “pull” signals to initiate production facilities for actual orders instead of “push systems” at production plantings or work orders that are usually based on estimated levels Supplier deliveries in just-in time production systems, where more frequent deliveries in small lots of parts and materials are in consideration, should be scheduled to meet customer needs. Just-in time delivery made by suppliers usually reduces the inventory level of producers and thereby this both reduces the need for material requirement in the warehouse and inventory holding costs. 2.LEAN ACCOUNTING Management accounting is an accounting discipline designated to provide managers the information for decision making that will optimize the organization in order to achieve its strategic, economic and profit objectives set by corporate management. If the strategy is correct for the market, this will ultimately increase the corporate value of the organization as a result of will result the increased value of the work, increased wages for workers and an increase in dividends to shareholders (White 2009). In a study conducted by Advanced Manufacturing Consortium International (CAM-I) among 145 chief financial managers in the United States, it is expressed that:   %80 of the managers still use traditional cost allocation systems and Only %23 of them declared that they are satisfied with their current decision support system (Sharman 2003). These results should not be too surprising because the accounting community limited management accounting only with its contribution to the external financial reporting (White 2009). In addition, studies show that senior managers in the United States are lack of issues such as cost and resource management (Sharman 2003). Lean Accounting movement was born as a solution to a period of intense disappointment. Lean American manufacturers, who are under pressure of this intense competition and want to overcome this great frustration, work continuously to ensure that the customer is willing to pay for the value created by permanently eliminating the waste (Grasso 2005). Lean processes need information for value stream activities including purchasing, ordering and month-end closings. These processes value streams management need quick information to continuously determine waste, deploy employees for cost reduction activities in their divisions and analyze the results of improvement activities. Traditional accounting systems do not provide information about necessary measures and thus, they are late for creating value in a lean environment (Carnes and Hedin 2005). In this concept, Lean Accounting has the following purposes (Maskell and Kennedy 2007).   260 Motivating lean transformation all throughout the organization and providing accurate, timely and easily understandable information for decision-making process leading to increasing customer value, growth, profitability and cash flow Using lean techniques to remove waste from accounting processes while maintaining financial control �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo   Being fully complied with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), and with the requirements of external reporting and internal reporting arrangements, Investing in people, providing appropriate and relevant information to motivate and empower the organization at every stage of development to support the lean culture. The main difference between traditional accounting and lean accounting is the fact that lean organizations are arranged according to value streams rather than the organization's functions. Value stream organizations simply need to re-organize their accounting knowledge in a simplistic manner (Haskin 2010). Lean organizations classify costs according to value streams rather than departments. The costs that may occur in value streams include design, engineering, sales and marketing, delivery costs as well as costs associated with customer relations, material purchasing and collection of receivables (Kroll 2004). From a management accounting point of view; any resources’ total cost with the product material cost as well as the sum of the costs of outsourced services, are included to value stream cost object (Van Der Merwe and Thomson 2007). In a lean environment, the processes are based on a customer oriented “pull” environment, where the production begins when the customer gives orders, rather than a “push” environment based on predictions. The products produced based on contemporary estimates will be produced in accordance with the budget and will be stored until delivered by the customer. Often, the problems may arise because of the high inventory levels and even the risk of stock being outdated. Traditional methods that assign fixed production costs, support high levels of production estimates to lower unit cost by assigning costs to greater number of units (Haskin 2010). Traditional accounting strives to assign cost to precise and fixed cost centers. On the other hand, lean accounting aims to accurately measure these costs rather than perfect assignment of them (Kroll 2004). Unlike traditional full cost accounting that assigns all overhead to product costs and supports excessive production, value stream organizations use simple and summarized direct costing that involves little cost assignment. As a result, lean accounting clearly contrasts with the traditional methods that claim it is efficient for overhead to be absorbed by mass production (Haskin 2010). It is a clear fact that conventional methods reflect an era dominated by the idea of economies of scale which has products with less variety. The information generated by the conventional methods may lead to wrong decisions (Drickhamer 2004). This information is prepared weekly and it is easy to understand. Decisions are given by assessing their effects on value stream costs and profitability as a whole not assessing their effects on individual product. Thus, decisions may be made more effectively because the information is more accurate and understandable. Also, with this perspective, real information can be provided rather than information which is less accurate and sometimes based on complex accounting formulas (Maskell and Kennedy 2007). 3.LEAN INVENTORY VALUATION Traditional manufacturers developed the standard cost systems which generate the standard unit costs for each product. In the balance sheet, the amount of inventory is the sum of multiplications of actual amount of each product with standard unit of that product. This process needs the periodic comparison of actual costs with the standards to update the standards to reach actual values. Using actual costs for inventory valuation is a requirement for GAAP. Using standard costs for inventory valuation needs the sustainability of a sophisticated system in order to observe and generate all necessary standard rates. Standard costing system assesses inventory at the level of individual product. This means that every inventory valuation needs detailed information about how an individual product’s standard 261 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo cost is valued. The information about material invoices, work orders, work centers, overhead rates, direct labor rates, and direct / indirect assignments should be obtained, updated and be available for inventory valuation. On the other hand, lean companies have different perspectives for inventory valuation (Maskell and Kato 2007). Lean companies can value their inventory in a very simple way because the most important feature of a lean company is its low level of inventory. When Inventory is low, many simple methods for inventory valuation may be considered. Physical inventory counting is quick and easy because inventory level is low and can be managed visually (Maskell and Kennedy 2007). The managers of lean companies know the inventory level that will enable continuous flow of all work cells in a value stream. All excess inventory is a waste and must be disposed. As a result, inventory at the end of the period was produced for that period, and thus, matching the actual production cost of inventory with its amount has become quite simple. Lean companies make actual cost calculations at inventory valuation in two ways. These two methods are described following (Maskell and Kato 2007). a) Valuing Inventory Using the Unit Quantity Method The average cost per unit method resembles traditional inventory valuation method in which the amount of each inventory component on hand is multiplied by actual material and conversion cost. The only difference is that the actual amount on hand is the sum of all units in the factory product range. Calculation is based on all inventory levels not on each individual item. The main assumption of this method is that the inventory is a mix of products that are sold and produced which is also a common assumption for lean pull systems. Figure1 exhibits the calculation of an inventory valuation based on average cost per unit method (Maskell and Kato 2007). Total Units Total Material cost Average Material Cost Per Unit Total Conversion Cost Average Conversion Cost Per Unit 19.450 $758.568,33 $39,00 $40,06 Quantity Material Value 13.730 2.288 3.432 $535.483 $89.234 $133.851 $779.155,56 Conversion Value $0 $91.656 $137.484 19.450 $758.568,33 $229.139,83 Raw Material Work in process Finished Goods Total Inventory Value Total Value $535.483 $180.890 $271.335 $987.708,17 Figure 1: Valuing Inventory Using the Unity Quantity Method b) Valuing Inventory Using the Number of Days Method In the days of inventory method (Figure 2), daily material costs and conversion cost rates are used for inventory valuation. Daily rate information comes directly from value stream costing information and these daily rates are multiplied by the days on hand of each inventory component (Maskell and Kato 2007). Days in the Month 262 Total Material Cost Material Cost per Day Total Conversion Cost Conversion Cost per Day �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 20 $758.568,33 $37.928,33 $779.155,56 12 2 3 Material Value $455.140 $75.857 $113.785 Conversion Value $0 $77.916 $116.873 17 $644.781,67 $194.788,89 Days Raw Material Work in process Finished Goods Total Inventory Value $38.957,78 Total Value $455.140 $153.772 $230.658 $839.570,56 Figure 2: Valuing Inventory Using the Number of Days Method 4.CONCLUSION Conventional methods reflect an era dominated by the idea of economies of scale which has products with less variety. The information generated by the conventional methods such as standard costing may lead to wrong decisions. In addition, the maintenance and use of a standard costing system requires a sophisticated and costly process which absolutely contrasts with the principles of a lean organization. Lean organizations use value stream costing that is simple and based real time information for their purpose of cost control, internal decision making and external financial reporting. The lean inventory valuation methods for these purposes (the number of days method and unit quantity method) as illustrated in this study are compliant with GAAP. Regarding these methods, there is no need to know the cost of any specific product and maintain a sophisticated standard cost system. The simplification of inventory valuation process means eliminating non-value added activities and creating available capacity for finance people to focus on lean improvement projects. REFERENCES Carnes, K.and Hedin, S. (2005) Accounting for Lean Manufacturing: Another Missed Opportunity?, Management Accounting Quarterly, 7(1), 28-35. Drickhamer, D. (2004) Lean Accounting: Novel Number Crunching, Industry Week, 253(12), 49-52. Grasso, L. (2005) Are ABC and RCA Accounting Systems Compatible with Lean Management?, Management Accounting Quarterly, 7(1), 12-27. Haskin, D. (2010) Teaching Special Decisions in a Lean Accounting Environment, American Journal of Business Education, 3(6), 91-96. Huntzinger, J. (2007) “Limited Production Principles: Right Sizing for Effective Lean Operations and Cost Management” in E. D. Stenzel (eds.) Lean Accounting: Best Practices for Sustainable Integration, Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jusko, J. (1999) A Look at Lean, Industry Week, 248(22), 88-91. Kennedy, F. A. and Widener, S. K. (2008) A Control Framework: Insights from Evidence on Lean Accounting, Management Accounting Research, 19, 301-323. Kroll, K. M. (2004) The Lowdown on Lean Accounting, Journal of Accountancy, 198(1), 6976. 263 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Maskell, B. and Kato, N. (2007) “Value Stream Costing: The Lean Solution to Standard Costing Complexity and Waste” in E. D. Stenzel (eds.) Lean Accounting: Best Practices for Sustainable Integration, Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Maskell, B. H. and Kennedy, F. A. (2007) Why Do We Need Lean Accounting and How Does It Work?, Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance (Wiley), 18(3),59-73. McNair, C.J. (2007) On Target: Customer-Driven Lean Management. in E. D. Stenzel (eds.) Lean Accounting: Best Practices for Sustainable Integration, Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Shah, R. and Ward, P.T. (2003) Lean Manufacturing: Context, Practice Bundles, and Performance, Journal of Operations Management, 21, 129-149. Sharman, P.A. (2003) The Case for Management Accounting, Strategic Finance, 85(4), 43-47. Van Der Merwe, A. and Thomson, J. (2007) The Lowdown on Lean Accounting. Strategic Finance, 88(8), 26-33. White, L. (2009) Resource Consumption Accounting: Manager-Focused Management Accounting, The Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance, 20(4), 63-77. Woehrle, L. S. and Abou-Shady, L. (2010) Using Dynamic Value Stream Mapping and Lean Accounting Box Scores to Support Lean Implementation, American Journal of Business Education, 3(8), 67-75. The Factors Which Caused The Decline In The Amount Of The Newly One Family Houses Sold In Us Ali Cüneyt Çetin1,Jing Li-Kole2 1Department of Accounting and Finance,Suleyman Demirel University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Isparta, Turkey 2State University of New York at Oswego, New York, USA E-mails: cuneytcetin@sdu.edu.tr,likole@oswego.edu Abstract The new privately owned one-family house sold (C25) is recognized as great indicator for economy. The monthly data in February 2011 was 250,000 houses sold. Compared to five years ago, 1,061,000 in 2006 were decreased by 76%. What are the causes to the dramatic decline of number of C25? The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. Therefore, in this study, dependent variable is the new privately owned one-family house sold. Independent variables include 30 years mortgage rate, real personal income, unemployment rate, population, and house price index. The results indicate when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases by 20 thousand. When the unemployment rate increases 1%, the 264 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1302 Title A name given to the resource Lean Way Of Valuing Inventory Author Author Cengiz, Emre Abstract A summary of the resource. American manufacturers which are choosing are lean principles as their basic business model, increasingly looking to lean thinking to improve productivity, reduce costs, enhance flexibility, create better value for their customers, and raise profits, cash flow, and stock price. The basic principles of lean thinking are based some solid factors namely profits are earned by selling products; value streams deliver customer satisfaction; nonfinancial operational data helps line workers manage business processes; real-time data is needed to enable process improvement; idle time is okay if there are no customer orders to fill at the moment; the goal of world-class organizations is to improve actual performance at a faster rate than competitors; front-line employees are an asset that should be cross-trained and highly skilled. Moreover, the cardinal rule of lean management is eliminating all unnecessary steps that create waste. In this context, lean accounting seeks to reduce steps in transaction processing, eliminate standard costs in favor of actual costs, and discontinue cost allocations. The traditional mass production companies which are typically advocators of standard costing see inventory as the largest current asset on traditional manufacturer s balance sheet and naturally, a traditional manufacturer use their inventory asset for collateral for bank lines of credit. Thus, lot of cash is tied up in the inventory. The traditional manufacturer inventory valuation is not based on an actual cost system. For instance, a company with inventory turns of 3.00 has four months of inventory on hand, which means it must use the actual production cost system for the last four months to value inventory. This absolutely obviates to maintain an actual cost system. On the other hand, lean companies aim to eliminate work in process and finished goods inventory with high inventory turns. A shrinking inventory value on a balance sheet based on real time cost information which in turn becomes a smaller percentage of total current assets is a typically way of doing for lean companies. This study illustrates the actual cost calculations for inventory valuation. The study will explain “the number of days method and unit quantity method” and highlight their differences between the traditional inventory valuation methods. Keywords: Lean Accounting, Inventory Valuation, Number of Days Method, Unit Quantity Method Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d4fa5499d73948ebdcc6c749efd970b9.pdf 136d624246a8f7c18aa1d946e080ce45 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Significance Of Fairs For Marketing Activities Cengiz Funda, Gürkanlar, Esin Akdeniz University Alanya Faculty of Business E-mails: cengizfunda@akdeniz.edu.tr, esingurkanlar@akdeniz.edu.tr Subject: This study aims to set forth the significance of fairs in marketing activities through determining the relevant attitudes of participant companies. Abstract This study aims to set forth the significance of fairs in marketing activities through determining the relevant attitudes of participant companies. To this end, a questionnaire comprising of 22 questions was devised to collect data for the research. The questionnaire was used during the “2011 Antalya Anfaş Hotel Equipment” fair organized in “Antalya Expo Center”. The questionnaires were given to and filled in by the company staff working in the booths allocated to the participant companies. Among 150 questionnaires completed 116 were deemed eligible to be used in this research. Analysis made in the light of the data collected as a result of the research revealed that fairs have a significant role for the marketing activities of participant companies. It has been determined that fairs offer significant advantages to companies especially in the promotion of existing products and conducting of market analysis for the new products. Keywords: Fair, Marketing, Marketing Tool, Promotion Mix 1.INTRODUCTION Competition is increasing as a result of globalization and technological developments and consequently marketing activities have become more important than product quality and features, which in turn has increased the function of and the need for marketing. Therefore, the significance of fairs are increasing for marketing managers since such events can fully respond to the current needs, enable the use of many interpenetrating marketing instruments such as advertisements, promotion, public relations and direct marketing and ensure that a single message is delivered to the consumer. This research aims at dwelling upon the significance of fairs through determining the role they play for company marketing activities, and benefits they offer to the companies that use fairs as effective marketing instruments. 2.General Overview of the Term Fair The word fair is originally derived from the Latin word “fariae”, which means festival or fest (Koldaş 2006). In general terms fairs are publicity activities scheduled to take place regularly, usually at the same venue, where tradable goods or services, technological developments, information and innovation are promoted aiming at finding new markets and sales opportunities, 35 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo technical cooperation, establishment and development of potential commercial networks. Fairs are among the most significant marketing communication instruments through which companies offer their goods and services to visitors, and potential buyers and sellers meet and have individual contacts with each other (Okay 2000). Fair organization business is growing and expanding globally. Almost 9000 fairs are organized every year in around 120 countries (Sülün 2004). The largest and most modern fair venues are located in Europe. Germany is the leading country in Europe and in the world, where high-quality fair organizations take place. Almost 400450 fairs are organized every year in Germany. In this respect Germany is followed by France, Italy and the United Kingdom in Europe (Sülün 2004). 3.Link between Fairs and Marketing Diversified product and application options have extremely complicated the process of selection for the buyer, and have made it essential to have a single platform for comparing all options. In national and international competition close customer relations have become the most important instrument in success strategy (TOBB 2012). Fairs are the marketing instruments which appeal to five senses of the individual and provide unique features since they are three dimensional unlike other sales development activities. Furthermore, fairs are effective sales development instruments which allow all promotion activities to be collectively used at once such as individual sales activities actively used via individual contacts with customers, public relations activities actively used via news coverage in the press, advertisement activities actively used before, during and after the fair organization via advertisements about the fair (Koldaş 2006). Fairs serve for two main purposes; the first one is that fairs function as a marketing instruments for its participants. Participants in fairs introduce their products to the customers and try to conclude trade agreements. The second purpose of fairs is that they contribute to the development of professional networks and sales while keeping a pulse on commercial and organizational markets under the warm atmosphere created by the fair (Çakıcı 2004). Almost no marketing instrument but fairs have the capability of providing individual contact with the customer in addition to the introduction of the firm and its products (Göksel and Sohodol 2005). Studies conducted in this field reveal that customers which could not be reached by sales staff under normal circumstances can be easily reached by fairs, each visitor spends an average of 22 minutes in every booth, and 85% of them take their final decisions right there, and in terms of costs fairs are less expensive than individual sales visits (Philip, 1994). According to a research made on firms participating in fairs, the main reasons why participant firms (n:201) opt for fairs can be listed as follows: 89% sell products and 81% raise awareness on the product. The third reason is to have contacts with existing customers (52%). Other reasons might be listed as; fulfill the sales quota (37%), penetrate into the market (34%), change perceptions (27%) and staff training (9%), respectively (Çakıcı 2004). These data clearly underline that fairs are places where new networks can be built. According to a research made, commercial fairs are the second most effective instrument after individual sales, which has the strongest influence on decision making process of the industrial consumers. (Herbg et al. 1997). 36 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4.The research This study aims to set forth the significance of fairs in marketing activities through determining the relevant attitudes of participant companies. By doing this, it is considered that the study will contribute to the literature and the companies. A field research was conducted in the “2011 Antalya Anfaş Hotel Equipment” fair organized in “Antalya Expo Center. The first limitation on the study is that it was conducted in an international fair organized only in the city of Antalya. Due to limitations of time and cost, research sampling had to be restricted. A survey was devised and used as an instrument of data collection. The survey consisted of two different questionnaires which involved closed ended questions. The first section of the questionnaire consisting of 18 statements which uses the interval scale (1-absolutely disagree…5-absolutely agree),aims at measuring the significance of fairs for marketing activities. To determine the reliability of this scale Cronbach Alpha coefficient was used. Reliability of the scale was calculated as α= …... The second section of the questionnaire aims at finding answers to how much budget participants allocate to fairs, how many times they participated in fairs and in fairs abroad, and general significance of fairs for the company and role of participants in the company. The research subject group consists of 156 companies participating in the fair. Among these 156 companies, 150 participated in the research. Surveys were administered by researchers on individuals in charge of companies’ fair booths and personal interviews were used as a supplementary instrument. Among 150 filled-in questionnaires 116 were deemed eligible to be used for the research, and the remaining 34 were excluded due to several reasons. Data collected through the survey were transferred to the SPSS 14.0 package software and statistical analyses were made. 4.1.Findings Findings obtained as a result of the research were classified under the following groups. Information concerning the research participants and companies Sectors that participated in the fair were mainly the food sector with 24,1%, textile sector with 22,4% and security sector with 19%. These sectors are followed by the electric-electronic with 13,8%, construction with 8,6%, chemical sector with 6%, press and media with 4,3% and furniture sector with 1,7%. As regards the positions held by participants who filled in the surveys, it has been observed that majority of the participants (50,9%) worked in the department of marketing and sales. Other positions included the following: general director with 16,4%, company owner with 13,8%, founder with 9% and other with 18,1%. It was found among the companies selected for the research that rate of participation in fairs abroad was rather low (14,7%), and majority of the companies (85,3%) did not participate in fairs abroad. As regards the company budget allocated for fairs, it has been collected that 71,6% of the companies allocated 1 to 20% of their budget to fair activities while 13,8% allocated “21 to 40%” of their budget, 11,2% allocated “41 to 60%”, 3,4% allocated “61 to 80%” of their budget to the fair activities. Annual rate of participation in fairs indicated that 77,6% of the companies participated in “1 to 2 fairs”, 12,1% participated in “3 to 4 fairs”, 6% participated in “5 to 6 fairs”, 1,7% participated in “7 to 8 fairs”, and 2,6% participated in “9 to 10 fairs”. Majority of the companies (75%) indicated that participation in fairs was significant for the company while 15% stated that it was highly significant. Among others only 1,7% stated that participation in fairs was insignificant, and 7,8% stated that it was “neither significant nor insignificant”. 37 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4.2.Fair Perception Factor Analysis This phase of the research applies factor analysis to 18 statements concerning fair perception to determine the internal clustering of variables. As a result of the analysis KMO value has been found to be 0.792. If p value is (0.000), it is significant to conduct such an analysis. As a result of the factor analysis four aspects have been determined as customer interaction, product publicity, market analysis and information transfer, and total variance explanation of these four factors have been found to be 74,4%. Reliability tests have been applied to the data collected, and Cronbach Alfa value has been found as 0,835. Corelation, t-test and Anova tests have been used in the analysis. Table1. Analysis of Corelation among Variants Budget Share allocated to fairs 1 Amount of fairs participated per year Significance attributed to Fairs Budget Share allocated to fairs Amount of ,375(**) 1 fairs participated per year Significance ,318(**) ,287(**) 1 attributed to Fairs Interaction ,025 -,038 ,519(**) Publicity ,144 ,067 ,396(**) Analysis ,052 ,073 ,448(**) Info ,362(**) ,243(**) ,347(**) Exchange ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Interaction Publicity Analysis 1 ,595(**) ,576(**) ,305(**) 1 ,543(**) ,524(**) 1 ,297(**) Info Exchange 1 As a result of the correlation analysis among factor ratings, a positive relation has been observed among the budget share allocated to fairs, amount of fairs participated per year, significance attributed to fairs and the belief that information transfer takes place in fairs. 1 unit increase in the budget share allocated to fairs increases the amount of fairs participated per year by 37%, and 1 unit increase in significance attributed to fairs increases budget share allocated to fairs by 31% and the amount of fairs participated per year by 28%. 1 unit increase in the belief that information transfer takes place in fairs increases budget share allocated to fairs by 36% and the amount of fairs participated per year by 24%. There is a positive correlation among the significance attributed to the fairs and belief that fairs ensure interaction with customers (51%) and information transfer (34%) and belief that fairs provide opportunities for product publicity (39%) and market analysis (44%). There is also a positive correlation among the belief that fairs ensure interaction with customers and enable product publicity (59%), the belief that fairs provide opportunities for market analysis (57%) and information transfer (30%). 38 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo t-Test results of Factor Ratings concerning Participation in Fairs Abroad Results of the t-test administered to determine whether participation by companies in fairs abroad influence the factors significantly, indicate that according to 0,95 significance level, no significant difference exists between beliefs on “Customer Interaction”, “Product Publicity and Market Analysis”. However, there are significant differences concerning the belief that fairs ensure “Information Transfer”. Accordingly, those who participated in fairs abroad (14.6%) (A.O=3,70, S.S.= ,7806) considered fairs much more useful in terms of information transfer than those who did not participate in fairs abroad (85.4%) (A.O=3,30, S.S= ,7356). Anova Test results of Factor Ratings concerning Allocated Budget Share Results of Anova analysis administered to determine whether the annual budget share allocated for fairs influence the factors significantly, indicate that according to 0,95 significance level, no significant difference exists between beliefs on “Customer Interaction and Market Analysis”. However, there is a significant difference concerning beliefs regarding “Product Publicity and Information Transfer”. Accordingly, those who allocate 61 to 80 % of their budget annually (3,4%) (A.O=4,541, S.S= ,458) consider fairs much more useful in terms of product publicity than those who allocate 1 to 20% of their budget on an annual basis (71,5%) (A.O=4,072, S.S= ,278). Similarly, those who allocate 61 to 80 % of their budget (A.O=4,25, S.S= ,500) consider fairs much more useful in terms of information transfer than those who allocate 1 to 20% of their budget on an annual basis (A.O=3,1767, S.S= ,6774). 5.CONCLUSION Fairs are platforms where companies can implement the strongest marketing activities concerning their products and services. It is no doubt that establishment of new business networks, rapid feedback on products and services received through individual talks, strengthening of the institutional and visual image of companies contribute to increasing sustainable competitiveness of companies. To this end, the study aimed at determining the significance of fairs on marketing activities as well as discovering the participant companies’ attitudes towards the fairs. The study concluded that participants deem fair events significant and consider them as effective instruments for marketing activities. However, despite what has been stated above, the study also revealed that participation in fairs abroad and budget allocated to fairs need to be improved. Increasing both the quantity and the quality of relevant studies in this field is deemed necessary for underlining the significance of fair events in terms of marketing activities. Researchers of the study plan to expand the scope of this study in order to cover larger participant groups in several fairs in the future. REFERENCES Çakıcı A.C. (2004) Toplantı Yönetimi – Kongre, Konferans, Seminer ve Fuar Organizasyonu, Detay Yayıncılık, Ankara. Göksel A. B. and Sohodol Ç. (2005) Stratejik Fuar Yönetimi, Mediacat, İstanbul. Herb P., O’haraf G. B., Palumba A. (1997) Difference Between Trade Show Exhibitors and Non-exhibitors, Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 12(6), 368. 39 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1361 Title A name given to the resource Significance Of Fairs For Marketing Activities Author Author Cengiz, Funda Abstract A summary of the resource. This study aims to set forth the significance of fairs in marketing activities through determining the relevant attitudes of participant companies. To this end, a questionnaire comprising of 22 questions was devised to collect data for the research. The questionnaire was used during the “2011 Antalya Anfaş Hotel Equipment” fair organized in “Antalya Expo Center”. The questionnaires were given to and filled in by the company staff working in the booths allocated to the participant companies. Among 150 questionnaires completed 116 were deemed eligible to be used in this research. Analysis made in the light of the data collected as a result of the research revealed that fairs have a significant role for the marketing activities of participant companies. It has been determined that fairs offer significant advantages to companies especially in the promotion of existing products and conducting of market analysis for the new products. Keywords: Fair, Marketing, Marketing Tool, Promotion Mix Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/0bd045852c0ea58a11d8ef6604e4836f.pdf e9cbba86c9570baecd86837205856bd0 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Yusof, S.A. (2010). Globalization and the Malaysian labor market: an empirical investigation. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 31 (1), 17-40. Factors Affecting The New Vehicle Registration In The Eu Countries Cumhur Erdem1, Şaban Nazlioğlu2 1Department of Economics ,Gaziosmanpaşa University, Tokat-Turkey 2Department of Econometrics, PamukkaleUniversity, Denizli-Turkey E-mails: Cumhur_erdem@yahoo.com,snazlioglu@pau.edu.tr Abstract Theobjective of this study is to determine whether economic factors (namelyprice, consumer preferences, consumer income, interest rate, fuel prices, industrial production, and trade)have any explanatory power on new vehicle registry in the EU member countries. To meet this objective, a panel cointegration analysis was applied to the panel of thirteen EU countries for the time period spanning from January 1999 to August 2010. This study concludes that while the vehicle sales in the EU are determined by the macroeconomic factors instead of the factors in the demand theory, the consumer preferences are impetuses for passenger car sales in the EU countries. Keywords: newvehicle sales, demand theory, macro economic variables, EU countries, panel cointegration, 1. INTRODUCTION Automotiveindustry has become very dynamic and competitive sectors on a global scale in recent years. Since the industry is considered as a crucial contributor to economic growth, it has been observed that most of the developed countries (such as. the USA, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain and South Korea) and many of the less developed ones (such as China, India, Malaysia, Thailand) have policies for becoming major players on world market by improving their own industry. Therefore, prediction of new vehicle registry is of great interest for policy makers, legislators, transport and urban planners, and traffic engineers in nations whose economies highly depend on the vehicle industry because the prediction of future vehicle registry has a vital importance in terms of forecasting national accounts as well as future energy and infrastructure requirements (Abu-Eisheh and Mannering, 2002). Predicting the new vehicle registration and having information about the determinants of the vehicle demand has also crucial importance for the strategic planning of vehicle manufacturers. The industryplays a vital role in the economies of European Union (EU) member countries, the world’s largest vehicle producer and playground for a highly competitive and innovative 468 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo industry, in terms of manufacturing, employment, exports, Rersearch&Develpment and government revenue (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (hereafter ACEA), 2011). As of 2009,Germany is the largest vehicle producer (5.2 million units) in the EU followed by Spain, France, United Kingdom (UK), Italy, Czech Republic, and Poland (ACEA, 2011). Vehicle production and demand in most of the countries (including the EU) show upward and downward trends from time to time depending on the changes in economic conditions. Wad (2009) stated that “the effect of the global crisis came immediately with the stop for consumer credit and rapidly declining consumer confidence hitting in particular durable and expensive purchases like automobiles”. Even though 14.1 million new cars were registered in the EUby 2009, the automotive industry experienced the biggest decline in EU car sales since 1993. New passenger car registrations decreased by 9.5% compared to the pre-crisis levels of 2007 (1.6% compared to 2008) and commercial vehicle registrations declined by 32.4% compared to 2008(ACEA, 2011). Due to the significance of the vehicle industry on the economies of EU member countries, from both policy makers and manufacturers’ perspectives, there is a need to establish a policy framework that grows the automotive industry. In this context, it is important to determine the factors affecting the new vehicle registry in EU member countries. However, the empirical attempts on the determinants of the vehicle sales in the EU countries are very scarce and this gap in the literature provides room for examining the factors affecting the new vehicle sales in the EU countries. This paper thereby aims at addressing to which extent the economic factors have impact on the number of new vehicle registry in EU countries. To meet this objective, a panel data analysis was applied to the panel consisting of thirteen EU countries for the period January 1999-August 2010. 2. Literature review There are a limited number of studies in the literature related to the determinants of vehicle demand. In an early study, Abu-Eisheh and Mannering (2002) analyzed the determinants of automobile import in West Bank and their estimation and simulation results showed that population/employment, economic growth, oil prices, exchange rates, and governmental policies have relative importance on the importation of automobiles. They concluded that much of the growth in automobile ownership is determined by economic growth. Lord and Sahito (2010) analyzed whether yen-for-dollar exchange rate and gasoline prices have impact on the demand for Japanese cars in the US and found that demand for Japanese imports is positively correlated with the gasoline prices. They also found a positive relationship between the yen-for-dollar exchange rate and imports after 1988. Alper and Mumcu (2007) estimated the demand for new automobiles in Turkey and found that the origin of automobile’s country and quality have impacts on the demand for automobile in Turkey and found that the demand for new automobiles is price inelastic in the short run. Mannering (1988) conducted a study to determine how consumers in the USA value interest rates in their new car choice decisions. His findings shows that consumers tend to overvalue interest rates relative to their true worth, proving the success of interest rate incentive programs. 469 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo McManus (2007) hypothesized that there is a link between gasoline price and selling price of automobiles in the USA and to reveal the existence of this link, he regressed the aggregate automobile prices on the number of independent variables including the interest rates. He found that interest rates has negative impact on the price of automobiles and concluded that since interest rate has negative impact on the automobile sales, automobile manufacturers overcomes this effect by reducing the selling price of automobiles. Dotseyand Reid (1992)tested the effectiveness of interest rates, proxied for the monetary policy,, and oil prices in economic activity for the USA and concluded that both tight monetary policy and oil price increases are statistically related to the declines in economic activity. Beck (2003) investigated the difference in consumers' responses to changes in the price of automobiles and changes in the level of the interest rate for automobile loans in USA and found that consumers respond to price changes rather than interest rate changes when purchasing a new automobile. His estimation results showed that there is a statistically significant and negative relationship between auto-demand and both interest rate and price variables. As expected, they found a positive and statistically significant positive relationship between auto-demand and disposable income. 3. Empirical Model and Data To examine the determinant of new vehicle registrations in the EU, the demand model which is augmented with the macro-economic aggregates is described as follows: ln NVit   0  1 ln Pit   2 ln CCI it   3 yit   4 iit   5 ln FPit   6 ln IPI it   7 ln XM it   it (1) where i stands for the EU country, t refers to time period, NV is new vehicle sales, P is price of vehicles, CCI is consumer confidence indicator (consumer preferences), y is consumer’s disposable income,i is interest rate,FP is fuel prices (diesel prices for the commercial vehicles, gasoline prices for the passenger cars), IPI is industrial production, and XM is total trade. For new vehicles, four particular segments are considered in the estimations. The number of new registry for passenger cars (PC), light commercial vehicles (LCV) up to 3.5t - (excluding minibuses up to 3.5t), commercial vehicles (CV) over 3.5t - (excluding buses&coaches over 3.5t), heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) over 16t - (excluding buses&coaches over 16t) were used for the dependent variables. The independent variable price is one of the variables that represents the price of vehicles. In equation (1), the sign of the coefficient on the price is expected to be negative due to the demand theory which postulates that the quantity demanded is a negative function of the price. One of the important contributions of this study to the empirical literature is to determine the sensitivity of the new vehicles sales to the consumer confidence indicator. Consumer confidence indicators were formulated in the late 1940's by George Katona at the University of Michigan as a way to include empirical measures of consumer expectations into the models of spending and saving behavior. The demand model described above includes a measure of the consumer confidence indicator to accounts for changes in consumers’ preferences due to the current economic condition, recessions or expansions, which effect consumers' decision to buy a car. Concerning the theory of demand, this variable can be used as proxy to measure the consumers’ preferences (Beck, 2003). With regard to the expected sign of the consumer confidence indicator, 470 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the views are not unambiguous about to what extent the consumer confidence affects the demand of a good. On the one hand, a positive relationship is expected between new vehicle registration and consumer confidence indicators due to fact that optimistic consumer confidence may encourage consumers to make large expenses and to increase the tendency for borrowing. On the other hand, pessimism may cause consumers to decrease their expenditures and to make more strategic financial decisions. The consumer income is one of the traditional determinant of a good consumed. The demand theory assumes that an increase in demand for a good is positively associated with an increase in consumer income. In this study, the growth rate of per capita income is used as a proxy for the consumer income. Another independent variable representing the price of automobiles is interest rate that is included into the model to determine whether macroeconomic instability has any explanatory power on the new vehicle registry in the EU member countries. As a durable good, it is expected that the demand for vehicles is affected by the real interest rates. Accordingly, a negative relationship between interest rate and vehicle sales is expected due to fact that higher interest rates mean higher costs of borrowing for loans. The fuel prices may be one of the important factors in explaining the fluctuations in new vehicle sales. High oil prices are expected to be negative effect on the consumer demand for the vehicles. According to Lee and Ni (2002), both the demand and supply of oil-sensitive industries are affected after an oil price shock. They also emphasized that the vehicle industry is negatively affected by oil price shocks and that the long run effects of oil price shocks will results in a weakening demand for full-size cars or opting for alternative means of transportation. It was hypothesized that worldwide economic conditions are expected to have impact on demand for commercial vehicles. For the commercial vehicles, industrial production index and trade volume were added to the models as independent variables to determine the effectiveness of economic activities on vehicle demand. It is expected that there is a positive relationship between demand for commercial vehicles and both industrial production and trade volume. It is expected that the demand for the vehicles is expected to rise as the cargo transportation increases with the growing economic activity in the sectors such as the construction, agriculture, chemical, mining and service. This study covers the monthly data spanning from January 1999 to August 2010 for 13 EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom). The starting date of time period and the crosssectional dimension of the panel are restricted to availability of the variables in concern for the EU countries. The monthly data for the new registration of vehicles, short-term interest rates, harmonized index of consumer prices were obtained from EUROSTAT databank. To reflect relative movements in the average aggregate price level for new vehicles, motorcars inflation is measured by harmonized index of consumer prices (2005=100). We observe seasonal cycles in the passenger cars and therefore the seasonally adjusted observations for this variable were used in the analysis. The monthly observations for the consumer confidence indicators, industrial production index, trade volume in goods were obtained from OECD databank. Trade volume (export+import) was indexed by taking January 2005=100 as the base time. Since monthly data for the growth rate of per capita income is not available for the countries in hand, the quarterly 471 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo data for the growth rate of per capita income retrieved from OECD database and was transformed to monthly observations by means of cubic spline interpolation method (PROC EXPAND procedure in SAS). The fuel prices are measured as including taxes and duties and were obtained from European Commission Oil Bulletin. 4. Methods and Findings In order to search for the long-run relations among the new vehicle sales and their determinants in equation (1), this study utilizes panel cointegration methods. The justification behind the use of panel cointegration analysis is due to the fact that panel data methods are more powerful than times series analysis since the panel data gets additional information from the cross-sectional dimension in addition to the time series dimension. In the first step of our empirical analysis, unit root properties of the series are investigated via four panel unit root tests developed by Breitung (2000), Levin et al. (2000), Im et al. (2003), and Hadri (2000). The panel unit root analysis indicates that while the variables of interest have unit root in their level forms, they are stationary in the fist-difference form76. The unit root analysis therefore implies that the variables may be cointegrated in the long-run, which provide a room to continue the empirical analysis with the examination of the cointegration properties of the variables. To analyze the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in question, several panel cointegration tests are developed in McKoskey and Kao (1998), Kao (1999), Pedroni (1999). The test of McKoskey and Kao (1998) and of Kao (1999) strictly assumes a homogenous panel cointegration vector for the panel. Pedroni (1999) relaxes this assumption by allowing heterogeneous cointegration vectors among cross-sectional units of the panel. To test for the null of no-cointegration in the panel, Pedroni (1999) developed the seven cointegration statistics which are asymptotically distributed as standard normal77. First, four statistics are based on the within-dimension approach which pools the autoregressive coefficient across different members for the unit root tests on the estimated residuals. The next three statistics are based on the between-dimension approach which averages the individually estimated coefficients for each member in the panel. The results from the panel cointegration tests are reported in Table 1. The findings strongly support that the new sales of commercial vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles in the EU are cointegrated with the prices, the consumer confidence index, the interest rate, the real income growth, the diesel prices, the industrial production, and the trade 76See Pedroni (1999) for further details and mathematical representation of the statistics. 77Single-family homes are unattached houses and townhouses, including individually owned and operated housing units as well as single-family townhouse condominiums. Currently, some 66 percent of all U.S. housing consists of single or one-family homes (Listokin, D. and Burchell, R.W., Housing (shelter), Microsoft® Student 2009 [DVD], Redmond, WA: Microsoft Corporation, 2008). 472 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo volume. Similarly, the passenger car sales tend to be move together in line with the changes in the prices, the consumer confidence index, interest rate, the consumer income, and the gasoline prices. The existence of the cointegration relations is also implies that the short-run deviations from the steady-state equilibrium in the estimated demand models for the vehicles are corrected over time. Accordingly, the policy makers in the EU countries may not quickly react to the shortterm shocks to the new vehicle sales. Table 1: Results for panel cointegration tests Statistic Commercial vehicles (CV) Light commercial vehicles (LCV) Heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) Passenger Cars (PC) 6.02 -29.37 -30.71 -28.24 6.42 -21.94 -24.80 -22.14 5.92 -28.30 -29.52 -27.69 12.92 -27.37 -29.19 -22.99 -30.48 -35.20 -32.05 -23.79 -29.68 -26.88 -29.28 -33.64 -31.29 -28.63 -31.81 -27.01 Within-dimension Panel v-stat Panel rho-stat Panel pp-stat Panel adf-stat Between-dimension Group rho-stat Group pp-stat Group adf-stat The critical value at 1 percent level of significance is 1.96 for panel v-stat and -1.96 for other statistics. All the statistics are statistically significant at 1 percent level of significance. The existence of the cointegration among the variables arises the question of to what extent the explanatory variables influence the new vehicle sales in the long-run. To estimate the long-run cointegration parameters, panel ordinary least squares (OLS), panel dynamic OLS (DOLS) and panel fully modified OLS (FMOLS) have been extensively utilized. Since these estimators are asymptotically equivalent, the choice among the methods depends upon their performance in finite samples (Banerjee, 1999). Monte Carlo experiments carried out by Kao and Chiang (2000) show that panel DOLS outperforms both panel OLS and FMOLS estimators. The recent Monte Carlo study of Wagner and Hluoskova (2009) indicate that the panel DOLS estimator outperforms both single- and system-equation panel cointegration methods. We therefore estimate the panel cointegration parameters by the group-mean panel DOLS estimator developed by Pedroni (2001). The panel DOLS estimator of Pedroni (2001) is flexible in examining crosscountry heterogeneity in the panel as well as in providing the mean value of the panel cointegrationcoefficient. Estimation of the cointegration parameters from the group-mean panel DOLS approach is computationally simple that the following regression model is estimated with the OLS for each member of the panel. yit   i   i xit  K ii  k   K ii ik xit k  it (2) wherey denotes the dependent variable, x is the matrix of the explanatory variables (lnP, lnCCI, i, y, lnFP, lnIPI, lnXM), ∆ is the first–difference operator, -K and K are leads and lags to be 473 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo N ˆ *  N 1   i  i 1 determined. The panel cointegration parameter is constructed as where i is the cointegration parameter obtained from the individual OLS estimation of equation (2). Finally, the N associated t-ratio for the panel cointegration parameter is derived as t ˆ *  N 1 / 2  t ˆ i 1 . The results for the panel cointegration estimations are reported in Table 2. Findings indicate that although some of the cointegration parameters appear to be insignificant, they have the expected signs. More specifically, while the commercial and heavy vehicles are negatively affected from interest rates, they are positively associated with a rise in the industrial production and in the total trade. For the light commercial vehicles, consumer confidence, income, and trade are found to be significantly positive. When we turn the passenger cars, it is found that while the passenger car sales are positively determined by the consumer confidence and the income,it is negatively determined by the interest rates. Table 2: Results for panel cointegration estimation Commercial vehicles lnP lnCCI I Y lnFP lnIPI lnXM -1.74 (1.47) 0.44 (0.73) -0.04 (3.04) *** 0.06 (0.95) -0.06 (0.74) 0.34 (2.38) *** 0.83 (3.40) *** Light commercial vehicles -0.26 (1.49) 1.16 (2.15) ** -0.01 (0.98) 0.05 (2.31) ** -0.43 (3.35) 0.90 (1.36) 0.30 (2.80) *** Heavy commercial Vehicles -1.23 (0.41) 0.10 (0.46) -0.05 (3.36) *** 0.03 (0.11) -0.19 (1.24) 0.46 (3.40) *** 1.20 (4.28) *** Passenger Cars -0.06 (1.28) 0.75 (1.66) * -0.01 (2.18) ** 0.02 (1.97) ** 0.05 (0.08) Figures in parentheses are the absolute t-statistics. ***, **, * indicates the significance at 1, 5, and 10 percent level of statistical significance. 5. Conclusions and Policy Implications In this study, we determine to what extent the economic variables affect the new vehicle sales in the selected EU countries over the period January 1999-August 2010 by means of panel cointegration analysis. The empirical results for the vehicles show that the vehicle sales are strongly associated with higher industrial production and trade. For the passenger cars, we find out that the passenger car sales are basically determined by the consumer preferences. The panel cointegration analysis provides important implications about the vehicle sales in the EU. First of all, the macro economic variables such as interest rate, industrial production, and trade appear to be more pronounced factors in the fluctuations of the vehicle sales. 474 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo REFERENCES Abu-Eisheh, S.A. and Mannering,F.L. (2002) Forecasting automobile demand for economies in transition: a dynamic simultaneous-equation system approach.Transportation Planning and Technology, 25(4), 311-331. ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association)(2011)The automobile industry in Europe an industry with strength and breadth.http://www.acea.be/index.php/collection/industry_and_economy_industry_report, (Accessed:02/01/2011) Alper, C.E. and Mumcu,A. (2007) Interaction between price, quality and country of origin when estimating automobile demand: the case of Turkey.Applied Economics, 39, 1789–1796. Banerjee, A. (1999) Panel data unit roots and cointegration: an overview. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 607-629. Beck,E.C. (2003)Are consumers more interested reductions?Issues in Political Economy, 12,1-9. in financing incentives or price Breitung, J. (2000)The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. in B. H. Baltagi, ed., Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, 15, 161-177. Dotsey, M. andReid,M.(1992) Oil shocks, monetary policy, and economic activity. Economic Review, 78, 14–27. Hadri, K. (2000)Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. Econometrics Journal, 3, 148–161. Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H.and Shin, Y. (2003)Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74. Kao, C. (1999)Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90, 1-44. 475 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kao, C. and Chiang, M.H. (2000)On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data. In B.H. Baltagi, ed., Advances in Econometrics.Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, 15, 179–222. Lee, K. andShawn,N.(2002)On the dynamic effects of oil price shocks: a study using industry level data. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49, 823-852. Levin, A., Lin, C., and Chu, C.J. (2002)Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24. Lord, R.A. and Saito,Y. (2010) Effect of exchange rates and gasoline prices on us imports of japanese automobiles, The International Trade Journal, 24(2), 182-208. Mannering, F. (1988) Analysis of the impact of interest rates on automobile demand. Transportation Research Record, 1116, 10-14. McCoskey, S., and Kao, C. (1998)A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data.Econometric Reviews, 17, 57-84. McManus, W. (2007) The link between gasoline prices and vehicle sales.Business Economics, 42, 53-60. Pedroni, P. (1999)Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(Special Issue), 653–670. Pedroni, P. (2001) Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels.Review of Economics and Statistics, 83, 727-931. Wad, P. (2009) Impact of the global economic and financial crisis over the automotive industry in developing countries, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Research and Statistics Branch, Working Paper, No:16/2009. Wagner, M., Hlouskova, J. (2009) The performance of panel cointegration methods: results from a large scale simulation study, Econometric Reviews, 29(2), 182-223. 476 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1355 Title A name given to the resource Factors Affecting The New Vehicle Registration In The Eu Countries Author Author Cumhur, Erdem Abstract A summary of the resource. Theobjective of this study is to determine whether economic factors (namelyprice, consumer preferences, consumer income, interest rate, fuel prices, industrial production, and trade)have any explanatory power on new vehicle registry in the EU member countries. To meet this objective, a panel cointegration analysis was applied to the panel of thirteen EU countries for the time period spanning from January 1999 to August 2010. This study concludes that while the vehicle sales in the EU are determined by the macroeconomic factors instead of the factors in the demand theory, the consumer preferences are impetuses for passenger car sales in the EU countries. Keywords: newvehicle sales, demand theory, macro economic variables, EU countries, panel cointegration, Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/fbd7b239d55ee3e4a7cb4e1f2b356d1c.pdf f0f4d8ffef45663c1b04aaa614f86aaf PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Durkaya, M., S., Ceylan, “Tax Revenues and Economic Growth”, Maliye Dergisi, N.150, p.79-89. Ekici, M.Sena (2009), “The Determinants of Tax Revenue & Its Economical-Social Side”, Electronic Journal of Social Sciences, V.8, ISSN : 1304-0278, p.200-223 Göçer, İ., M., Mercan, et all (2010), “Ekonomik Büyüme İle Vergi Gelirleri Arasındaki İlişki: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. Güriş, S, E.Çağlayan and B.Güriş (2011), Eviews İle Temel Ekonometri, Der Yayınları, İstanbul, ISBN: 9789753533706 Lee, Y., R.Gordon (2005), “Tax Structure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Public Economics, 89, p.1027-1043. Mucuk, M. and V., Alptekin (2008), “The Relationship Tax and Economic Growth in Turkey: VAR Analysis (1975-2006)”, Maliye Dergisi, N.155, p.159-174 Paksoy, S. and S, Bakan (2010), “Tax Policies Which are Applied in Turkey & Effects of Them on Economic Growth: (After 1980)”, Journal of Social Sciences, V.9, ISSN : 13040278, p.150-170 Pehlivan, O.(2012), Vergi Hukuku, Genel İlkeler ve Türk Vergi Sistemi, Murathan Yayınevi, Trabzon, ISBN: 9786055451219 Temiz, D.(2008), “The Relationship Between Tax Revenues and Economic Growth in Turkey : The Period of 1960-2006”, 2.National Economy Congress, İzmir, Özsoy C.(2009), "Türkiye'de Eğitim ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Modeli İle Analizi", The Journal of Knowledge Economy & Knowledge Management, Vol:IV, , 71-83. Turan, T.(2008), “Maliye Politikası Araçlarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Bir Literatür İncelemesi”, Sayıştay Dergisi, S.69, p. 17-36 Yanpar, Atila (2007), Master Degree Thesis, Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Büyüme Yönelimli Vergi Politikası, Yılmaz, Ö., V.Kaya(2007), “İhracat, İthalat ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir VAR Modeli”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, p.250, 69-84. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Import Demand: Evidence from Turkey Demirgil Hakan1, Keskin Hidayet1, Karaöz Murat2,Şentürk, Canan1 1Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey 2Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey, Abstract Since 2001 financial crisis, Turkey has adopted fluctuating exchange rate regime in order to make the economy stronger against external shocks. This has lead to a high volatility of Turkish lira against to foreign currencies. Therefore, it became essential for policy makers to evaluate the potential effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade. The purpose of this study is to provide new evidence on the effects of exchange rate volatility on the import 40 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo demand of Turkey along with income and price elasticities. Our data cover the period 2010:01 to 2010:05. We, initially, employed a GARCH model to evaluate exchange rate volatility one of the independent variables that estimate real import. The study also includes conventional determinants such as relative price level of imports and real GDP. Afterwards, our paper investigates long-run and short-run relationship between real imports and its determinants by using ARDL error correction model. The empirical results indicate that real exchange rate volatility of local currency has significant and reverse effect on import demand. Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, Import demand, GARCH model, ARDL error correction model, Turkey. 1. INTRODUCTION The high degree of volatility and uncertainty of exchange rate movements since the beginning of the generalized floating in 1973 have led policy makers and researchers to investigate the nature and extent of the impact of such movements on the volume of trade. Most studies investigate empirically the effects of exchange rate volatility on the export flow. However, there are only a few studies which investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on import demand. Gotur (1985) found mixed evidence regarding the effect of exchange rate volatility on import demand using aggregate data for the US, Germany, France, Japan and UK. The main conclusion of this analyze is that the Akhtar-Hilton methodology fails "to establish a systematically significant link between measured exchange rate variability and the volume of international trade". Anderton and Skudelny (2001) estimated euro area import demand function for the period 1989:01 to 1999:02. They found a significant negative effect of extraeuro area bilateral exchange rate volatility on euro area imports. Aydın et al. (2004) examines the export supply and import demand for the Turkish economy using both single equation and vector auto regression frameworks. The analysis shows the real exchange rate as a significant determinant of imports and the trade deficit, but not of exports. Baum et al. (2004) estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility on real international trade flows utilizing a 13 country dataset of monthly bilateral real exports for 1980-1998. They find that the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade flows is nonlinear, depending on its interaction with the importing country’s volatility of economic activity, and that it varies considerably over the set of country pairs considered. Arize (1998) tried to apply the co-integration technique to the import demand model using quarterly data over 1973:02 through 1993:04 and estimated the short- and long-run influence of exchange-rate volatility on the import flows of the United States. The major finding is that there is a significant long- as well as short-run negative effect of exchange-rate volatility on the volume of imports. Arize and Shwiff (1998) provided new evidence on the long-run relationship between import flows and exchange-rate volatility in G-7 countries, during the quarterly period 1973:02 to 1995:01. They found that exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the volume of imports of G-7, countries whereas for Canada, it is positive and significant. Hwang and Lee (2005) examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in the UK, over the period 1990-2000. Volatility is modelled by GARCH-M method. This study identifies the existence of a positive relationship between exchange rate volatility and imports in the U.K. in the 1998. Gül and Ekinci (2006) investigate the interactions between the real exchange rates and export and import applying bivariate Granger causality test in Turkey. The 41 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo results indicate that there is a cointegrating relationship between the real exchange rates and export and import. Erden and Sağlam (2009) investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on import demand in Turkey. The results indicate that while volatility and import demand on investment goods are co-integrated and are negatively related, there is no co-integrating relationship between exchange rate volatility and import demand on consumptions goods. Sarı (2010) provides the exchange rate volatility by using MSARCH which is a new econometric method; the results indicate that the import and exchange rate volatility are inversely related. Alam and Ahmed (2010) estimated the import demand function for Pakistan covering quarterly period 1982:01 to 2008:02 by employing ARDL approach. The result from ARDL analysis, support the hypothesis that in Pakistan there exist a long run relationship among, import demand, real economic growth, relative price of imports, real effective exchange rate and volatility of real effective exchange rate. 2. Data and Methodology For the following analysis, we gathered data on real import demand (RIMP) which is constructed as nominal import level deflated by the unit value index of import level, relative price (RELPR) which is the ratio of import price index of Turkey to consumer price index for Turkey (CPI), real GDP (GDP) seasonally adjusted using by CENSUS X12 method and exchange rate volatility (VOL). A continuous monthly sample from 2000:01 to 2010:05 is used in this study. RIMP, RELPR, GDP and CPI variables collect from Turkish Statistical Institute. Exchange rate volatility means that risk level faced by importers due to unpredictable fluctuations and thus it is an unobservable variable. We, therefore, used the conditional variance measure derived from GARCH model by Bollerslev (1986): where c is constant term, are the coefficients and is the error term normally distributed with mean zero and variance . ARCH model developed by Engle (1982) presume that the variance can be obtained from the following AR process: where is the conditional variance of exchange rate, are the coefficients and indicates the squared residuals from the mean equation. However, the GARCH (p,q) process is a widening version of ARCH in which is a function of the lagged values of itself as well as of . The conditional variance of exchange rate is estimated by: 42 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The most familiar drawback of testing for nonstationary in the process of time series is the very low power of unit root tests. Thus, a method which has received considerable attention over the past years is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) is usually used. The advantages of this method are to compare with other cointegration procedure. Firstly, a major advantage of this approach is that order of integration for each variable is not required for testing on the existence of a long-run relationship between them. More precisely, it is not relevant whether the variables are I(0) or I(1). Moreover, the long and short run coefficients can be estimated simultaneously and a dynamic error correction model (ECM) can be derived from ARDL through simple linear transformation. Applying the method, the error correction version of the ARDL model is given by: where the c is the constant tem, are the long run multipliers, are the short run coefficients and is the white noise error term. To test the long run relationship, an F-test on the null hypothesis of no cointegration in the long run relationship is defined by , against the alternative hypothesis of is conducted. The calculated F statistic is compared with the critical values provided by Pesaran et.al (1999). If the calculated F statistic lies above the upper bound, the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. In other case, the null hypothesis can be accepted if F statistic below the lower bound. If the existence of a cointegration relationship is identified, then following cointegration model is projected: The selection of the orders of lags in ARDL model is very important which is guided by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Furthermore, the properties of the residuals are checked to ensure the absence of serial correlation. Finally, the dynamic short-run coefficients for the error correction representation are estimated according to; 43 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo where ECMt-1 is the error correction term resulting from estimated long run equilibrium relationship; and is the coefficient represent the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium i.e. the percental monthly correction of a deviation from the long run equilibrium the month before. 3. Empirical Results The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philips-Perron (PP) tests results are shown in Table 1. This tests shows that RIMP, RELPR, GDP are to be integrated of order one, I(1), except for measures exchange rate volatility (VOL). VOL is to be integrated of order zero, I(0). Evidently, composition of I(0) and I(1) variables provides a good reason for using the bounds test approach (ARDL model). Table 1. ADF and PP tests of the series Variable ADF test with intercept Philips-Perron test with intercept Level First Difference Level First Difference RIMP -0.861 -2.906** -1.912 -18.695* RELPR -1.665 -5.889* -1.383 -9.185* GDP -1.366 -8.245* -1.462 -7.136* VOL -7.441* -15.659* -7.484* -67.973* Critical values are: -3.483 (for 1% level), -2.887 (for 5% level), -2.581 (for 10% level). *,** and *** indicates significant at 1%, 5% and %10 level respectively. In the first stage of the ARDL procedure, the order of lags on the first differenced variables for eq. (4) is usually obtained by means of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Given that we are using monthly observations, we experimented up to 8 lags on the first-difference of each variable and decided to choose 2 lags length. 44 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 2. Lag Lengths for Bounds Test Lag Length AIC Breusch-Godfrey (Prob.) 8 6,9658 0.142 7 6,9673 0.571 6 6,9036 0.734 5 6,9024 0.108 4 6.8588 0.104 3 6.7958 0.413 2 6.7951 0.507 1 6.7976 0.401 LM Test In Table 3, the results of the bounds co-integration test demonstrate that the null hypothesis of against its alternative is easily rejected at the 5% significance level. The computed F-statistic of 4.738 is greater than the lower critical bound value of 3.49; thus indicating the existence of a steady-state long-run relationship among RIMP, RELPR, GDP and VOL. Table 3. Bounds Test for Cointegration Analysis K 3 Bounds F test Critical Values Lower Bound Upper Bound %90 level 2.97 4.00 %95 level 3.49 4.58 %99 level 4.56 5.83 4.738 Diagnostics R2=0.440 F-Statistics=5.398 (0.000) Breush-Godfrey (0.451) Ramsey (0.577) LM=1.59 Jarque-Bera=10.307 (0.005) D-W Stat=1.938 White Test= (0.928) 7.872 RESET=0.312 Given the existence of a long-run relationship, in the next step we used the ARDL cointegration method to estimate the parameters of ARDL (1,0,1,1) model. GDP and VOL 45 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo variables display the expected signs for the regressors and they are highly statistically significant. The results of long run test suggest that the demand for imports in Turkey has not been affected by an increase in the relative price level of import. Because, Turkey mostly imports goods that are essential for continuing economic activity like petroleum products and raw materials. Table 4. ARDL (1,0,1,1) Model and Long Run Coefficients Variable Coefficient t-stat Constant -33.426 -3.758* RIMPt-1 0.331 3.763* RELPR 0.139 0.825 GDP 2.48E-06 0.507 GDPt-1 8.73E-06 1.843* VOL -0.069 -1.996** VOLt-1 0.034 1.002 Constant -50.002 -3.815* RELPR 0.208 -0.989 GDP 1.676E-05 3.763* VOL -0.051 -3.994* F-Statistics=157.948 (0.000) D-W Stat=2.043 Coefficients for Long Run Diagnostics R2=0.892 Breush-Godfrey (0.636) Ramsey (0.278) LM=0.97 Jarque-Bera=13.375 (0.001) White Test=3.279 (0.785) RESET=1.184 *, **and *** denote significance at the1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively. Error Correction Model (ECM) is employed to check the short run relationship among RIMP, RELPR, GDP and VOL. The t-statistics of ECM is statistically significant which shows that there is short run relationship among variables and results are incorporated in Table 5. The coefficients of error correction term represent the speed of adjustment of this variable back to its long- run value following a shock. 81% of any deviation from the long-run equilibrium is corrected every month. 46 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 5. Error Correction Representation of ARDL Model Variable Coefficient t-stat Constant -0.171 -0.254 ECMt-1 -0.816 -5.039* RIMPt-1 0.119 0.913 RELPR 0.321 0.688 RELPRt-1 0.376 0.806 GDP 3.73E-06 0.775 GDPt-1 3.61E-06 0.769 GDPt-2 8.93E-06 1.918*** VOL -0.077 -2.687* F-Statistics=7.984 (0.000) D-W Stat=2.061 Diagnostics R2=0.365 Breush-Godfrey (0.182) Ramsey (0.190) LM=1.79 Jarque-Bera=7.388 (0.024) White Test=1.182 (0.316) RESET=1.168 *, **and *** denote significance at the1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively. In order to check for parameter constancy, we employ the CUSUM stability test to the estimated ARDL model. Graph 1. Stability tests for Short Run ARDL (ECM) Model 30 40 2 3 1 2 20 0 30 10 1 -1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 20 -10 -4 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 -3 01 02 03 Recursive C(1) Estimates ± 2 S.E. 10 50 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 01 02 03 Recursive C(2) Estimates ± 2 S.E. 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 08 09 10 08 09 10 Recursive C(3) Estimates ± 2 S.E. 200 .00006 100 .00004 0 .00002 -50 -100 -10 -100 .00000 -200 -.00002 -300 -.00004 -150 -200 -20 -250 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 01 02 03 Recursive C(4) Estimates ± 2 S.E. -30 .00004 .00002 -40 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 01 02 03 Recursive C(5) Estimates ± 2 S.E. 04 05 06 07 Recursive C(6) Estimates ± 2 S.E. .00004 .6 .00002 .4 .00000 .2 .00000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -.00002 -.00002 -.00004 CUSUM 5% Significance -.00006 02 03 04 05 06 07 Recursive C(7) Estimates ± 2 S.E. (a) CUSUM Plot for the estimated ARDL Model .0 -.00004 01 08 09 10 -.2 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Recursive C(8) Estimates ± 2 S.E. 08 09 10 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Recursive C(9) Estimates ± 2 S.E. (b) Recursive Coefficient Test for stability of ECM 47 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The CUSUM plot for the model is shown in Graph 1 (a). As can be seen, the plot is within the 5% critical bounds. Furthermore, we conduct the Recursive Coefficient Test to confirm the stability of parameters see Graph 1 (b). As the coefficients do not display significant variation as more data is added to the estimating equation, it is a strong indication of stability. For the model, the stability tests show an overall constancy of the cointegration space. 4. CONCLUSION In this paper, we have analyzed real import demand for Turkey using available monthly time series data from 2000:01 to 2010:05. It could be concluded from this study that there is a long run relation among import demand, relative prices, real GDP and real exchange rate volatility. CUSUM and Recursive Coefficient Tests also indicate that there exists a stable import demand function. By employing an error correction framework, we also obtain estimates for the speeds of adjustment to long run equilibrium and short run elasticities for the import demand of Turkey. Therefore, it found that import demand of Turkey is positively affected by real GDP indicating that it is growth driven. Further, the results show that relative price level has no significant effect on import demand, which is quite obvious for growth driven economy. Results of the study also disclose that real exchange rate volatility of local currency has significant and reverse effect on import demand. The import demand of Turkey is sensitive and elastic (long run elasticity is -0.051 meanwhile short run elasticity is -0.077) to real depreciation and its volatility. The short-run dynamics assessed by estimation of the error correction models indicate an average adjustment coefficient of -0.82. For sustainable foreign trade policy (mediately sustainable economic growth), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey should conduct more stable exchange rate policy. REFERENCES Alam, S. and Ahmed, Q.M. (2010) Exchange Rate Volatility and Pakistan’s Import Demand: An Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model International Research, Journal of Finance and Economics, 48, 7-22. Anderton, R. and Skudelny, F. (2001) Exchange Rate Volatility And Euro Area Imports, European Central Bank Working Paper, 64. Arize, A. C. (1998) The effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on U. S. Imports: An Empirical Investigation, International Economic Journal, 12(3), 31-40. Arize, A.C. and Shwiff, S.S. (1998) Does Exchange-Rate Volatility Affect Import Flows In G-7 Countries? Evidence From Cointegration Models, Applied Economics, 30, 1269-76. Aydın, M.F., Çıplak, U. and Yücel, E.M. (2004) Export Supply and Import Demand Models for the Turkish Economy, Research Development Working Paper No: 04/09, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Baum C.F., Caglayan M. and Ozkan N. (2004), Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19, 1-23. Bollerslev, T. (1986), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-27. 48 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Engle, R.F. (1982) Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Cariance of UK Inflation, Econometrica, 50, 987-1008. Erden, L. and Sağlam, G. (2009) Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Oynakliğinin Sektörel Ithalata Etkileri: Bir Ardl Ithalat Modeli Analizi, H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(2), 19-44. Gül E. and Ekinci A. (2006) Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1990 – 2006, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16, 165190. Hwang H. and Lee, J. (2005) Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows of the U.K. in 1990s, International Area Review, 8(1), 173-182. Pesaran, M.H. and Shin Y. (1999) An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, in: Strom, S.(Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Camridge University Press, Cambridge. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001) Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. Sarı A. (2010) Döviz Kuru Oynakliğinin Ithalata Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği, İstanbul Üniversitesi Iktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 11, 31–44. Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms (*) Aygül Anavatan, Murat Karaöz Akdeniz University, İİBF, Department of Econometrics 07058, Kampus, Antalya, Turkey E-mails: aygulanavatan@akdeniz.edu.tr, mkaraoz@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract Cox proportional hazards model assumes that independent variables remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. One of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable as parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using Cox regression considering time depedent independent variables. (*) This paper is an extension to the findings of the scientific research project “The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, 109K139, which has been funded with grant from TÜBİTAK. We also acknowledge the administrative support to the project from KOSGEB. 49 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1312 Title A name given to the resource The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Import Demand: Evidence from Turkey Author Author Demirgil , Hakan Abstract A summary of the resource. Since 2001 financial crisis, Turkey has adopted fluctuating exchange rate regime in order to make the economy stronger against external shocks. This has lead to a high volatility of Turkish lira against to foreign currencies. Therefore, it became essential for policy makers to evaluate the potential effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade. The purpose of this study is to provide new evidence on the effects of exchange rate volatility on the import demand of Turkey along with income and price elasticities. Our data cover the period 2010:01 to 2010:05. We, initially, employed a GARCH model to evaluate exchange rate volatility one of the independent variables that estimate real import. The study also includes conventional determinants such as relative price level of imports and real GDP. Afterwards, our paper investigates long-run and short-run relationship between real imports and its determinants by using ARDL error correction model. The empirical results indicate that real exchange rate volatility of local currency has significant and reverse effect on import demand. Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, Import demand, GARCH model, ARDL error correction model, Turkey. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e479f1b5c68fca5ef618b00e00a9b498.pdf c9edbbbe388ff4749c360abe7a3f730d PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Uzun S., İlbaş A.İ., İpek A., Beyzi E.Uranbey, S. and Arslan, N. (2012). In Vitro Propagation of Endemic Iris galactica Immature Zygotic. XI. International Symposium on Flower Bulbs and Herbaceous Perennials. Abstract Book. P: 109. ANTALYA. Yıldırım Z., Öztürk G. and Esen, M. (2010). Propagation of Tuberose (Polianthes tuberosa L.) in In Vitro Conditions. III. National Ornamental Plants Congress.p:98-102. İZMİR Zencirkıran M.and Mengüç A. (2002).The Effects of Twin Scale and Chipping Techniques on Bulblet Production in Galanthus elwesii Hook. II. National Ornamental Plants Congress.p: 24-28.ANTALYA. Zeybekoğlu E. and Özzambak E, 2012. XI. International Symposium on Flower Bulbs and Herbaceous Perennials. Abstract Book. P: 225. ANTALYA. Sustainable Collection of Laurel (Laurus nobilis L.) Leaves in Antalya Province Deniz Hazar1 Ibrahim Baktir2 Ozgul KaraguzeL3 Levent Ht4 1*Akdeniz University, Kumluca Vocational School 2 Akdeniz University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Horticulture 3Bati Akdeniz Agricultural Research Institute 4Antalya Forest Department E-mail: dhazar@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract Laurel (Laurus nobilis L.) is an evergreen shrub which belongs to the Lauraceae family. It grows naturally along the entire coastal line of Turkey up to altitude of 1200 m. Laurel has been regarded as an important medicinal and aromatic plant for years in the Mediterranean Basin. Meantime, it is also often used as an ornamental plant in parks and gardens because it is very much suitable to pruning and to give the desired forms. Turkey provides about 97% of the world’s laurel leaf need. It is one of the top five plants collected from nature and exported from Turkey. However, there are some serious problems about the production system of laurel. Laurel production is done in conventional methods by local people. These areas are under threat due to overgrazing and uncontrolled collection. Ultimately, laurel growing areas have been exploited. In recent years, the researches related to sustainable use of laurel have increased. In this study it was investigated the researches conducted to sustainable use of laurel in Sırtkoy, Manavgat district and some other districts of Antalya. The aim of these studies was to develop an inventory method and to prepare management plans to be used by forest service and regional people. The cut shoots and leaves of laurel should be controlled and they should not be cut from the same locations every year. The rotation must be strictly applied in every 3 or 4 years intervals. Leaf collections should be done by experienced people in right period of the years and the leaves should be dried in a proper way. Keywords: Laurel, leaf, sustainability 104 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.INTRODUCTION Medicinal and aromatic plants are used for many purposes. There is a growing demand for them at the global level. They are mostly collected from nature. Therefore, conservation and sustainable use of these species are necessary to meet the needs of present and future generations. Laurel is an important medicinal and aromatic plant in Turkey. Laurel areas are under threat due to some serious problems such as uncontrolled collection and overgrazing. In this study, it was investigated the researches have been conducted so far (e.c. SırtkoyManavgat district) to conservation and sustainability of laurel areas. Laurel (Laurus nobilis L.) is a member of the Lauracea family which contains 45 genera and about 1000 species. It is also known, as sweet bay, bay laurel, Grecian laurel, true bay and bay. In Turkish, it is named as Akdeniz defnesi or only defne. The homeland of the Laurel is Anatolia and Balkans. But it was taken to the shores of the Mediterranean in ancient times. Today it is one of the characteristic plants of the Mediterranean. Laurel grows wild and is cultivated in many warm regions of the world particularly in the Mediterranean countries (Turkey, Greece, France, Spain, Portugal, Algeria and Morocco). It grows naturally along the entire coastal line of Turkey up to altitude of 1200 m (Davis, 1982; Başer and Ekim, 2003). It has a wide distribution in Turkish flora: Balıkesir, Bursa, İstanbul, Zonguldak, Kastamonu, Sinop, Trabzon, Rize, İzmir, Muğla, Antalya, Mersin and Maraş (Davis, 1982) (Figure 1). It isn’t selective in terms of soil request and prefers stream beds (Göker and Acar, 1983; Özel, 2008). Its distribution area is related to water (in soil or in weather) every time (Özel, 2008) Laurel is an evergreen large shrub or small tree growing up to 15 m in height (Davis, 1982). The leaves are elliptic and shiny dark green about 5-10 cm long, rather thick, aromatic and leathery. It has shiny gray bark. The laurel is dioecious plant with male and female flowers on separate plants. Clusters of small yellow or greenish white flowers are produced in spring on the female plants. The fruits are small (about 1-2 cm long), egg-shaped, green single-seeded berries that ripen to shiny, purplish black in the fall (Gökmen 1973; Seçmen et al., 1992). Figure 1. Distribution of Laurel in Turkey (Davis, 1982) Laurel has been symbolised of victory, strength and protection since ancient times. After the victory or success, a crown of laurel leaves was worn by the emperors, generals, heroes and 105 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo athletes in ancient Rome and Greek. Also it has been used for many purposes for ancient times (Jirovetz et al., 1997). The tree is grown primarily for its leaves. Fresh or dried, they are used as a culinary herb and also for leaf essential oil. Dried leaves are used as flavour and spice, especially in canned meat and fish, storage of olive, packaging raisins and dried figs. Laurel leaf essential oil has got widely usage in the flavouring, cosmetic and perfume industries. The oil extracted from berries is utilized in the food, drink, pharmaceutical, chemical and cosmetic industries. The leaves are also used in traditional medicine and to rheumatism, joint pains, epilepsy, parkinsonism, schizophrenia, stress, stomach ulcers, to stimulate the appetite and as a sedative and antiseptic. The oil extracted from the berries is used as a cure for irritated skin, earache, asthma and urinary ailments. Furthermore, it was widely cultivated and used mainly in Europe and the USA as an ornamental plant in parks and gardens because of suitable to pruning and to give the desired forms. (Barla et al., 2007). Turkey has an important potential for production and exports of the laurel. About 90% of world’s laurel production is done in Turkey. It is one of the top five plants collected from nature and exported from Turkey. Laurel leaf production is arranged according to laws and principles and the annual production programs of the General Directorate of Forestry. Laurel leaf production is done between July October due to vegetative growth has stopped. Since the best quality leaves are on 2-3 year-old shoots, leaf production is the collection of these leaves. This process is not in the form collection of single leaves, is obtained by cutting the 2-3 year old leafy shoots (Bozkurt et al., 1982; OGM, 1987).Leafy shoots are made bunch and are dried in the shade. So, the green color of leaves is protected. After the leaves dried, they are collected from shoots. Yellowed leaves and contaminated foreign substances are eliminated. Then the dried leaves are separated into quality classes and packed. The drying process is made very primitive conditions. Ultimately, percent of the unqualified leaf is increased. 106 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 2. A graph showing the production quantities until 2006 and the estimated demand quantities after 2006 in the laurel areas As seen from the Figure 2, the demand quantities are increasing every year. However, there is no increase in the laurel areas. On the contrary, it decreases with each passing day. Accordingly, the amount of production also decreases. The reasons for this are as follows: 1. The dense, irregular and uncontrolled leaf collecting is made. 2. These areas are under threat due to overgrazing. 3. There is not an applicable inventory method and management plan accepted and implemented by forest service and small farmers. 4. Laurel production is done in conventional methods by local people. 5. Laurel production is mostly done from its native areas. The newly established plantations are very limited. 6. The clonally propagation techniques aren’t used for sampling production. Therefore, the standard product can not be obtained from the new plantations. 7. Diseases and pests of laurel are damaged its leaves. This situation causes a loss in product. 8. The lack of information Some researches have been conducted to ensure the sustainability of production and exports of laurel leaves in the laurel production areas of Antalya and other provinces. 2.Researches on Laurel in Antalya: 1. Sırtkoy-Manavgat: This is the main study in laurel. Sırtkoy-Manavgat district were chosen to study the criteria of sustainable use of laurel. The aim of this study was to develop an inventory method and prepare a management plan to be used by forest service and farmers. In 107 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the first step, the inventories of the areas were carried out and the areas were assigned into homogenous classes. In the second step, fresh laurel leaf yield was measured on 30 sampling plots. In the third step, an index named “crown index” was developed to estimate actual leaf stocking in sample plots taken for inventory. The index is determined by multiplying of crown diameter and crown height and gives the values represent the amount of leaf production for a tree. Correlation of this index values with measured values was significant (r=0.79; P<0.0001). This index was used successfully for inventory of study area. The index was also suggested to planers to use for inventory studies. The digital maps produced by the use of GIS (Geographic Information System). The leaf harvesting rotation plans were developed on digital maps. GPS (Global Positioning Systems) was also used to locate all the fieldwork plots. As a result, a management plan was prepared for practitioners and forest service (Baş et al., 2005). 2. Yardop project: After the huge forest fire (16 000 ha) in Tasagil-Serik in 2008, Yardop project was developed in order to establish fire-resistant forests by forest service. This project aims to establish with leafy forest trees 50-150 m wide area between forest and farmland. For this purpose selected plants are laurel, carob, acacia, olives, almonds and cypress. Especially laurel is preferred because it is fire resistant and provides income. 3.The Other Researches on Laurel in Turkey: 1. The aim of this study was to determine the most suitable leaf harvesting method and cutting period which were yield good quality and quantity leaves of laurel and its economy. Experimental design was completely randomized parcel design with three different leaf harvesting methods (clear cutting, pollarding, combination) and three different shoot cutting periods (every year, once in two years, once in three years) on total 108 plots. First treatment was clear cutting method (coppice system). Second treatment was pollarding method. Within this method, one shoot which good growing and 1.0-1.5 m height at each plot was selected and were cut over its shoots on 1/3 ratio. The third treatment is combination method. It was combination of first and second methods. Shoot cutting periods were every year cutting, at two years interval cutting and at three years interval cutting. Commercially important dry leaf yield/plot (g/plot), the best quality dry leaf yield/ dry leaf yield ratio (%), the best quality dry leaf yield/plot (g/plot) and dry base essential oil contents (%) were given. According to results of this research; combined leaf harvesting method and two years interval cutting period were suggested for laurel areas (Polat et al., 2009). 2. The aim of this study was to determine the most suitable vegetative propagation method of laurel. For this, the cuttings were taken in 11 different time periods and treated with 5 different dose of IBA, were planted in 4 different medium. The best results were obtained from cuttings taking on 30 July and applied with 5000 ppm IBA. The mix of peat and perlite was determined as the best media (Parlak, 2008). 4.CONCLUSION In this study, to ensure the sustainability of laurel areas have been revealed primarily the problems. Some researches done in these areas are examined and some proposals are presented. One of the oldest and the most comprehensive studies were done in SırtkoyManavgat district and it was followed by several other studies. Considering the results of 108 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo these studies, the following recommendations can be presented to the sustainability of the laurel areas: The cut shoots and leaves of laurel should be controlled and they should not be cut from the same locations every year. The rotation must be strictly applied in every 3 or 4 years intervals. Leaf collections should be done by experienced people in right period of the years and the leaves should be dried in a proper way. To prevent destruction in natural laurel areas and to promote management of culture fields should be primarily carried out education, information and organization activities. For this purpose, the state, producers and private sector must be provided coordination and unity of purpose. REFERENCES Barla, A., Topcu. G., Oksuz, S., Tumen, G.and Kingston, D. (2007). Identification of cytotoxic sesquiterpenes from Laurus nobilis L. Food Chem, 104: 1478-1484. Baş, M.N., Güler, S. ve Erkan, N. (2005). Defne (Laurus nobilis L.) Alanlarında Yaprak Üretim Miktarlarının Belirlenmesi (Manavgat-Sırtköy Örneği). Çevre ve Orman Bakanlığı Batı Akdeniz Ormancılık Araştırma Müdürlüğü. Teknik Bülten Serisi. No:24, Antalya Baser, K.H.C. and Ekim, T. (2003). Medicinal Plants in the Western Black Sea Countries: Turkey, Eurasia Environment Conference, Istanbul, 21-23 October 2003, Türkiye Çevre Vakfi Yayini, Istanbul. Bozkurt, Y., Yaltırık, F. ve Özdönmez, M. (1982). Türkiye’de Orman Yan Ürünleri, İstanbul Üniversitesi Orman Fakültesi Yayınları, İÜ Yayın no:2845, O.F. Yayın no:302, İstanbul, s:13-15 Davis P.H. (1982). Flora of Turkey, Vol. 7, Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh. Göker,Y. ve Acar, İ. (1983). Orman Yan Ürünlerinden Akdeniz Defnesi (Laurus nobilis L.). İ. Ü. Orman Fakültesi Dergisi. Cilt: 33. Seri: B. Sayı: 1. İstanbul. Gökmen, H. (1973). Kapalı Tohumlular 1. Cilt. Şark Matbaası. 576 s. Ankara. Jirovetz, L., Buchbauer, G.and Ngassoum, M. (1997). GC/MS-analysis of essential oils from Cameroon plants used as spices in local foodstuff. Recent Research and Development In Agricultural and Food Chemistry, 1: 241-255. OGM (1987). Ülkemizdeki Bazı Önemli Orman Tali Ürünlerinin Teşhis ve Tanıtım Kılavuzu, Orman Genel Müdürlüğü, Yayın No:659, Seri No:18, Ankara, sayfa:25. Özel N., Akkaş, M.N., Öner, H.H., Akbin, G., Altun N. ve Albayrak Akbin, N. (2008). Batı Anadolu’da Defne (Laurus nobilis L.)Yayılış Alanlarının Yetişme Ortamı Özelliklerinin Belirlenmesi. Ege Ormancılık Araştırma Müdürlüğü. Teknik Bülten Serisi. No:39, İzmir. Parlak, S. (2008). Defne (Laurus nobilis L.)’nin Çelikle Üretilmesi. Ege Ormancılık Araştırma Müdürlüğü. Teknik Bülten Serisi. No:42, İzmir. Polat, S., Gülbaba, A.G., Tüfekçi, S. ve Özkurt, A. (2009). Defne (Laurus nobilis L.) Alanlarında En Uygun Yaprak İşletme Şekli ve Maliyetlerinin Belirlenmesi (Tarsus Örneği). Doğu Akdeniz Ormancılık Araştırma Enstitüsü. Teknik Bülten Serisi. No: 34, Tarsus. Seçmen, Ö., Gemici, Y., Görk, G., Bekat, L. and Leblebici E. (1992.) Tohumlu Bitkiler Sistematiği (Ders Kitabı). Ege Üniversitesi Fen Fakültesi Kitaplar Serisi No:116. Ege Ünv. Basımevi. Bornova-İzmir. 109 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1234 Title A name given to the resource Sustainable Collection of Laurel (Laurus nobilis L.) Leaves in Antalya Province Author Author Deniz, Hazar Abstract A summary of the resource. Laurel (Laurus nobilis L.) is an evergreen shrub which belongs to the Lauraceae family. It grows naturally along the entire coastal line of Turkey up to altitude of 1200 m. Laurel has been regarded as an important medicinal and aromatic plant for years in the Mediterranean Basin. Meantime, it is also often used as an ornamental plant in parks and gardens because it is very much suitable to pruning and to give the desired forms. Turkey provides about 97% of the world’s laurel leaf need. It is one of the top five plants collected from nature and exported from Turkey. However, there are some serious problems about the production system of laurel. Laurel production is done in conventional methods by local people. These areas are under threat due to overgrazing and uncontrolled collection. Ultimately, laurel growing areas have been exploited. In recent years, the researches related to sustainable use of laurel have increased. In this study it was investigated the researches conducted to sustainable use of laurel in Sırtkoy, Manavgat district and some other districts of Antalya. The aim of these studies was to develop an inventory method and to prepare management plans to be used by forest service and regional people. The cut shoots and leaves of laurel should be controlled and they should not be cut from the same locations every year. The rotation must be strictly applied in every 3 or 4 years intervals. Leaf collections should be done by experienced people in right period of the years and the leaves should be dried in a proper way. Keywords: Laurel, leaf, sustainability Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General)