208 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/30b109a3ee49615f9896aafab096f018.pdf 6f030960731f984f0924cdaadee459bf PDF Text Text     Journal of Economic and Social Studies Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore m_ishfaq452@yahoo.com   Wang Ghohui Liaoning Technical University gsxy.wgh@163.co   Mudassar Hasan Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore mudassar.hassan@lbs.uol.edu.p Ramiz Ur Rehman Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore ramiz_rehman@gmail.com   Abstract: This paper aims to test whether moving average (MA) investment Keywords:  Individual Stocks, Higher Yields, and timing strategy is applicable on individual stocks, portfolios formed from these Sharpe Ratio. stocks, or  both. Moreover, our objective is to compare the performance of MA Anika Sattar Liaoning Technical University anikasattar@yahoo.com Muneeb Ahmad Liaoning Technical University muneeb452@yahoo.com strategy with a buy-and-hold strategy. The data on individual stocks listed on JEL Classification: G10, London Stock Exchange, United Kingdom (UK) is collected over the period G11and D53 starting from December 31, 1999, through February 29, 2016. For the same period, we use daily values of UK-DS Market-PRICE INDEX and 1-Month Treasury bill rate. The paper follows Han et al. (2013) to peruse our investigation. The study applies both MA and buy-and-hold strategies to individual stocks and portfolios sorted by volatility. Since most results are found insignificant, no evidence is found to support that one strategy is better Article History Submitted:  17.4.2017 Resubmitted: 28.2.2018 Accepted: 18.5.2018 http://dx.doi.org/   10.14706/JECOSS17722 than the other when applied to individual stocks. However, trading behavior and success ratios across groups provide mixed results, hinting slightly towards the failure of MA strategy. The pervasive noise in daily stock return data is the reason why MA strategy consistently produces insignificant results. Moreover, when applied to volatility-sorted portfolios, MA strategy substantially beats buy-and-hold strategy by yielding higher average return and risk-adjusted returns, lower standard deviations, large-and-positive skewness and Sharpe ratios, and much success ratios across portfolios. Both for individual stocks and portfolios, dynamics of returns and especially trading behavior suggest that the performance of MA strategy decreases with rising lag lengths, meaning MA signal weakens for a longer history. Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 5 �Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, Wang Ghohui, Mudassar Hasan, Anika Sattar, Muneeb Ahmad, Ramiz Ur Rehman   Literature Review Historically, stock price prediction has received an enormous amount of attention among investors, practitioners, and academicians. Broadly, two classes of analyses have been used for predicting stock prices. These are commonly known as fundamental and technical analyses. Fundamental analysis uses intrinsic properties of an asset, specifically stock, to estimate future price or intrinsic value. On the contrary, in technical analysis historical data of prices is used to drive signals about future prices. Lately, nevertheless, technical trading rules have been commonly used by investors and financial analysts to make investment decisions (Neely, 1997; Taylor and Allen (1992)). More recently, however, (Han, Zhou, & Zhu, 2016) find results that favor the persistent profitability of the MA trading rule. Zhou and Zhu (2013) documents as MA follows the trend. It is further expected to be high profitability in high IU stocks when there is amore extended price continuation. Metghalchi, Marcucci, and Chang (2012) accept that MA scan forecast. Shintani, Yabu, and Nagakura (2012) point out that MA signals are helpful for investment over a longer time horizon. On the other hand, numerous studies provide either mixed or reverse evidence. For instance, (Allen & Karjalainen, 1999) establish that, for US stock market, the technical trading strategy does not perform better than buy-and-hold strategy even after accounting for trading costs. Sullivan, Timmermann, and White (1999) examine US futures market and conclude that, after making snooping bias adjustment, there is no clue supporting the profitability of technical analysis. Hoffmann and Shefrin (2014) find that investors who apply technical analysis as their primary strategy in options trading are biased towards short-term speculative trading decisions that are sub-optimal in the long run. Similarly, studying futures markets, (Roberts, 2005) finds no evidence to support the profitability of technical trading rules. Lukac and Brorsen (1990) point out that the returns of technical trading rules are leptokurtic and exhibit positive skewness. The study also reports that the historical applications of t-test for the returns produced by technical trading rules can be biased. It is worth considering that MA is most popular among a range of technical analysis rules available. Therefore, some literature primarily focuses on moving average; Such as (Hudson, Dempsey, & Keasey, 1996)show that technical analysis rules (especially the MAs) do not perform superior to buy-and-hold strategy when trading is costly; though these rules have predictive power.Wei, Cheng, and Wu (2014) comment that MAs are the trading rules that are most widely known and used by practitioners and financial traders in the markets because MA methods are easily understandable.Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) further examine the 6 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios   application of the MA timing strategy on Dow–Jones Industrial Average and conclude that MA strategy outperforms buy-and-hold strategy. Mills (1997) also demonstrates similar finding while applying the strategy to FT-30 Index. Kwon and Kish (2002) list down the same results for New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). More recently, (Han, Yang, & Zhou, 2013) apply the moving average (MA) timing strategy in US stock market. The main findings of the study are, MA strategy performs significantly better than buy-and-hold strategy when applied to volatility decile groups. Further, it produces significant average and excess returns. Moreover, these returns also hold for when MA is calculated for more considerable lag lengths. Finally, the excess returns are thus produced sufficiently cover the transaction costs. This study primarily replicates the research carried out by (Han et al., 2013) while simplifying, and to some extent differentiating, itself in the following ways. First, it studies the application of MA strategy in UK stock market. Second, it considers five quantile groups of individual stocks rather than portfolios. The groups are sorted based on the volatility of individual stocks. Third, it utilizes Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) solely to test for abnormal returns. Fourth, it confirms the robustness of results by using only two ways, alternative lag lengths, and trading behaviors. Finally, it compares the results of individual stocks with that of portfolios. Overarching the core aim of the study is to explore either moving average (MA) investment timing strategy is applicable on individual stocks or portfolios, for the stocks listed on the London Stock Exchange. Furthermore, our objective is to compare the performance of MA strategy with a buy-and-hold strategy. The following section explains the material and methods which contains the discussion regarding the nature and sources of data and the econometric model's output as well. We conclude the study in the last section under the conclusion head. Material and Methods We collect stock price data of 1,565 stocks listed on London Stock Exchange, United Kingdom (UK) from December 31, 1999, to February 29, 2016 (4,217 days). Daily values of UK-DS Market - PRICE INDEX and 1-Month Treasury Security rate are also downloaded for the same period. The data downloaded from Thomson Reuters’ DataStream. Risk-free rate and market index data are free from missing values. However, since stock price data does have missing values, so we have to replace such values by not available (NA). Initially, we calculate the daily returns for each stock. These are the returns under the buy-and-hold strategy. As part of the cleaning process, we replace all returns greater than 300%with NA before moving further. Then for every day, following Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 7 �Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, Wang Ghohui, Mudassar Hasan, Anika Sattar, Muneeb Ahmad, Ramiz Ur Rehman   (Brock et al., 1992) and (Han et al., 2013), a 10-day moving average (MA) price, Ajt,L of each stock is calculated by using the stock prices (Pt) of previous ten days. The MA price formula is given as follows; Ajt , L = Pjt −( L −1) + Pjt −( L −2) + .... + Pjt −1 + Pjt L , (1) where t = a particular day, L= the lag lengths which is 10 in the first case, J = number of stocks; so, j = 1,…,1565. It is quite simple to apply MA strategy once MA prices are obtained. MA strategy is based on the following notion: on a day, if yesterday’s market price (Pt) is higher than yesterday’s moving average price (Ajt,L), invest in the market today; otherwise, invest in the 1-month T-bill today. Mathematically, MA strategy can be expressed as ~ R jt , L = { R jt , r ft if Pjt −1 > A jt −1, L ; otherwise. (2) Where Rj,t = return on a stock, j , under buy-and-hold strategy t = a particular day rft= the daily 1-month T-bill rate on day t. Rjt,L= MA return on a particular day, for a particular stock, and for a particular lag length which is 10 in this case. MAG is defined as the difference between MA and buy-and-hold returns. Once we have MA returns, MAGs can be calculated in the following way; ~ MAG jt , L = R jt , L − R jt . (3) Note that MAGs measure the performance of MA strategy relative to buy-and-hold strategy. The last portion of Table 1 also reports the success ratio of MA strategy. The idea of success ratio can be described as follow. On a particular day, if MA return is equal to the maximum of either buy-and-hold or risk-free return of that day, the day is considered a success-day; otherwise, it is regarded as a failure-day. Finally, the ratio of all success-days to total trading days available is reported as success ratio. 8 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios   Further, to assess the risk-adjusted performance of MAGs, We apply CAPM regression between MAG returns and daily excess returns on the market, rMKT,t, Famaand French (1993) Which can be expressed as, MAG jt ,L = α j + β j , MKT rMKT + ε jt , ,t j = 1 ,..., 1,565. (4) Where αj, βj,MKT are the alpha(risk-adjusted return) and beta on for each stock. Robustness of results is checked by repeating some steps of the methodology mentioned above. For instance, average returns and alphas are calculated in a similar way but with alternative lag lengths. Alternatively, we test MA strategy for 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day lag lengths. However, to further test robustness through random switching strategy, only 10-day lag length is considered. The notion of random switching strategy can be explained as follows: a coin is tossed every day, and if by doing so the uniform distribution provides a probability greater than .5, the random strategy is to invest in the market; in risk-free security otherwise. This process is repeated 10 times for every stock. It means under random strategy; first stock has 10 returns against each day. Then daily returns on 30-day T-bill are subtracted from the respective returns of all days, and for all columns, to calculate excess returns produced by random switching strategy. Each column of excess returns thus calculated is regressed upon excess returns on the market to yield 10 regressions, average returns, alphas, and t-statistics. The averages of all these values are reported in last two columns of Table 3. The exact process is reiterated for other random strategy groups. Finally, it is of interest to see how often daily signals help MA strategy to trade. Consider any stock. A trade happens only if, on a particular day, MA return is equal to buy-and-hold return; and, on the previous day, MA return is equal to risk-free return. Alternatively, a trade also occurs when the situation is reversed; that is if, on a particular day, MA return is equal to the risk-free return; and, on the previous day, MA return is equal to buy-and-hold return. After counting for a number oftrades, we can quickly calculate average hold period, a fraction of trading days and breakeven transaction cost (BETC). As a final note, we would like to explain how we sorted all stocks into five quantiles. We construct five quantiles based upon the standard deviation (volatility) of each stock from a buy-and-hold strategy. Similarly, we create a differential quantile whose returns are equal to the difference between returns of stocks in the highest and the lowest quantiles. The stocks belonging to each quantile remain the same throughout the process. So, each reported figure is the average of all stocks into a quantile. Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 9 �Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, Wang Ghohui, Mudassar Hasan, Anika Sattar, Muneeb Ahmad, Ramiz Ur Rehman   Results and Discussion Performance of Buy-and-Hold and Moving Average (MA) Strategy a. Descriptive Statistics Table 1: Descriptive Statistics 9.38 (4.02) 34.45 0.61 0.19 (0.89) 3 5.60 43.50 0.82 0.07 1.15 1.99 60.97 2.20 -0.03 99.70 6.05 -10.72 101.21 4.48 (-0.19) 1.34 0.39 19.25 -0.03 6.45 28.27 2.68 0.52 -13.56 (-0.34) 2.55 -0.04 0.38 32.63 -0.45 0.26 0.39 47.15 -1.61 0.33 0.40 77.27 -6.73 0.08 0.40 78.08 -4.91 0.07 0.02 Skewness 25.59 -0.37 12.05 (1.02) 37.69 4.56 0.42 18.16 (1.19) 60.76 6.60 0.04 (0.34) -0.35 0.34 (0.30) (1.56) (0.06) H-L 22.75 (2.01) (0.11) 5(H) 17.60* 16.76 -0.16 -10.48 (1.17) (1.73) (0.54) 4 11.93 Success of MA Strategy 2 2.33 -25.81 -0.49 Sharpe Ratio (0.94) 11.03** 14.27 Sharpe Ratio 0.34 Skewness 0.55 Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio 22.14 Average Return Skewness 11.54 Standard Deviation MA(10) Timings Quantiles Panel C Performance of MA Investment Timing Strategy MAGs Average Return Volatility Quantiles   Standard Deviation 1(L) MA Investment Timing Strategy Panel B Average Return Ranks   Panel A   Buy-and-Hold Strategy   4.52 (0.29) 61.79 4.52 -0.32 -2.83 (0.07) Table 1 summarizes various aspects of returns (performance) on quantiles, MA (10 days) timing groups, and the respective MAGs. In Panel-A, we report several statistics of returns on five volatility quantile groups under buy-and-hold strategy namely average return, standard deviation, skewness, and Sharpe ratio. Table 1 also represents the performance of differential quantile, the difference between the highest and the lowest quantile, as its last row. The insignificance of average returns across all groups suggests we do not have substantial evidence supporting the performance of the buy-and-hold strategy in either way. Despite the fact, we comment on the results as follows. The rising volatility and decreasing average 10 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios   returns lead to a dipping Sharpe ratio across quantiles. More importantly, increasing skewness across most quantile groups indicates that the groups accompany a higher chance for significant positive returns. Panel-B shows that only the returns of the first, 11.03% per annum, and the third group, 17.6% per annum, are significant. However, relaxing the level of significance a bit, the returns of second and fourth groups, with t-stats 1.73 and 1.56 respectively (reasonably close to 1.96), may also qualify for significance. Now the results of 10days moving average timing strategy make sense in that the average returns on most MA groups are not only higher than that of buy-and-hold strategy but are an increasing function of quantiles, except the fifth and differential groups. However, for all quantiles, the standard deviations of MA groups are substantially lower than buy-and-hold groups. Consider a case of the lowest and the highest groups an example. The annualized standard deviation of the lowest and the highest groups under buy-and-hold strategy are 22.14% and 99.70% respectively; whereas the same groups produce the standard deviations as 14.27% and 60.76% in case of MA strategy. The findings also depict that the average returns of all groups have sizeable positive skewness which ranges between 1.34 and 6.60; though it also shows an increasing trend from the second to the highest group. However, first and differential groups are an exception here. It points out the fact that all MA group returns not only have the chance to produce substantial positive returns, but the volatility enhances this chance for most MA groups indeed. Since four MA quantiles, second, though the highest, enjoy increasing average returns with lower standard deviations, as directly opposed to buy-and-hold groups, they yield positive Sharpe ratios. Although inconsistent across quantiles, most of the findings in Panel-B appear to suggest that MA strategy performs slightly better than buy-and-hold strategy in timing individual stocks. Panel-C shows the superior performance results of MAGs, the difference between MA returns and volatility quantile returns. The average returns across all quantiles are not significant. Therefore, the results provide no evidence supporting the superior performance of MA strategy over buy-and-hold strategy. Additionally, we comment on the remaining results of Panel-C as follow. As compared to volatility groups, MAG groups yield mixed findings regarding lower standard deviations, higher Sharpe ratios, and, most importantly, negative skewness across most of the quantiles. Negative skewness indicates the possibility of significant negative returns by MAGs. When comparing among volatility, MA, and MAG quantiles, we also note that the standard deviations of MAGs fall somewhere between the standard deviations of corresponding MA and volatility quantiles, lower than that of volatility quantiles but higher than MA quantiles. Finally, the success ratios across most Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 11 �Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, Wang Ghohui, Mudassar Hasan, Anika Sattar, Muneeb Ahmad, Ramiz Ur Rehman   MAGs, ranging from 34% to 40%, point towards failure instead. Hence, Panel-C does not provide sufficient evidence in support of MA strategy outperforming the buy-and-hold strategy. To conclude the discussion on results presented in Table 1, it is evident that based upon average returns of groups, we fail to conclude that MA timing strategy outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy when applied to individual stocks-despite of the fact that MA strategy yields some higher returns and low standard deviations. Instead, the results of skewness, Sharpe ratio, and success ratio indicate otherwise. However, the results are too inconsistent to draw any conclusion whatsoever. We further attempt to explain MAGs by using a risk-based model that is Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) b. Explanation of MAGs Using CAPM Regression 3 4 5(H) H-L Adj.R2 (%) 2 βMKT 1(L) Α Rank Table 2: CAPM Results 2.38 (1.18) 3.38 (0.32) 12.18 (1.04) 18.39 (1.22) 4.93 (0.30) 8.25 (0.81) -0.15** (-8.53) -0.26** (-11.32) -0.27** (-9.10) -0.22** (-4.83) -0.18** (-2.42) -0.21** (-7.24) 5.05 5.71 4.56 1.64 0.43 3.48 Table 2 shows the results of CAPM regressions run between excess returns on groups (MAGs) and excess returns on the market under theMA-10 strategy. Adjusted r-squares are in percentages. Annualized alphas and betas also accompany t-stats in parenthesis. **, * denote the results are significant at 1% and 5% levels respectively. The sample period is from December 31, 1999, to February 29, 2016. See Data and Methodology Sectionfor calculations and other details. Table 2 reports the results of regression for MAGs produced by 10-day moving average (MA-10) timing strategy. Note again that all risk-adjusted returns, the alphas, are insignificant. At one hand, the betas of all MAG quantiles are negative, highly significant, and range from -.15 to -.26 across quantiles; on the other hand, adjusted R2 for most of the MAGs that varies from .43% to 5.71% across quantiles are extremely low. Low R2 also confirms that stock returns, and ultimately MAGs, are highly volatile. Hence, coupling together results, beta and adjusted R2, MAG 12 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios   returns do not move against the market. Moreover, excess market returns do not explain MAG returns well. Therefore, as the analysis does not offer evidence supporting the profitability of MA timing strategy, we can reasonably conclude that the results of Table 1 and Table 2 support each other. Robustness Checks Now, we test the robustness of these results in following two ways. First, we assess the performance (profitability) of MA strategy by using alternative lags, for instance, lag lengths with 20, 50, 100, 200 days. Then, we investigate the trading dynamics of MA strategy while accounting for transaction costs. a. Alternative Lag Lengths Table 3: MA Strategy Results 1(L) 2 3 4 5(H) H-L Α Random Switching Average Return α Average Return MAG-200 α Average Return MAG-100 α MAG-50 Average Return Α Average Return Rank MAG-20 -0.93 1.81 -1.91 0.79 -2.73 -0.01 -2.75 -0.05 1.76 -0.60 (1.03) (1.03) (0.73) (0.72) (0.55) (0.55) (0.45) (0.45) (0.02) (-0.32) 1.54 2.35 0.27 0.98 -0.51 0.17 -0.07 0.66 5.77 6.52 (0.18) (0.19) (0.00) (0.01) (-0.11) (-0.11) (-0.07) (-0.06) (0.03) (1.04) 9.77 9.93 7.75 7.92 5.99 6.22 5.08 5.31 4.95 10.76 (0.83) (0.85) (0.52) (0.54) (0.36) (0.38) (0.28) (0.30) (0.01) (1.38) 15.62 15.86 12.29 12.54 9.26 9.53 7.79 8.06 -0.88 -7.50 (1.00) (1.03) (0.75) (0.78) (0.55) (0.58) (0.44) (0.46) (0.00) (-0.92) 1.65 2.05 1.78 2.19 2.33 2.78 1.50 1.95 4.75 20.34 (0.15) (0.17) (0.10) (0.11) (0.07) (0.09) (0.04) (0.06) (0.01) (1.16) -4.94 6.40 -3.83 4.88 0.91 3.73 2.22 3.18 3.58 1.92 (-0.03) (0.65) (-0.02) (0.43) (0.02) (0.30) (0.02) (0.24) (0.03) (0.53) Table 3 presents the results of MA strategy when applied for alternative lag lengths namely 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day. We also report the results of random strategy.All average returns and CAPM alphas are annualized with t-stats provided in parenthesis. **, * denote the results are significant at 1% and 5% levels respectively. The sample period is from December 31, 1999, to February 29, 2016. See Data and Methodology Section for calculations and other details. Table 3 depicts the average returns and CAPM alphas of MAGs for alternative lag lengths. All alternative lag lengths bring similar findings as lag-10. Unfortunately, we find no average return and alphas as significant. For making a further comparison with MA strategy, last part of Table 3 reports the performance results, the average Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 13 �Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, Wang Ghohui, Mudassar Hasan, Anika Sattar, Muneeb Ahmad, Ramiz Ur Rehman   return, and alpha, generated by random switching strategy. The results indicate that the random switching strategy does not produce substantial results because all average returns and alphas are found extremely small and insignificant. Finally, after combining the results of MAG-10 with Table 3, the insignificance of all results provides no evidence to conclude that MA strategy performs better than buy-andhold strategy when applied to individual stocks. b. Trading Behavior Table 4: Trading Behavior BETC Trading Fraction No. of Trades Holding Period MA-200 BETC Trading Fraction No. of Trades Holding Period MA-100 BETC No. of Trades Trading Fraction Holding Period MA-50 BETC Trading Fraction No. of Trades Holding Period MA-20 BETC Trading Fraction No. of Trades Rank Holding Period MA-10 1(L) 127.08 296 0.07 31.75 151.65 202 0.05 43.28 190.80 125 0.03 56.93 223.78 87 0.02 58.19 253.87 59 0.01 64.18 2 41.65 423 0.10 33.20 56.81 285 0.07 43.27 79.48 169 0.04 56.50 102.40 116 0.03 72.61 128.58 76 0.02 97.51 3 34.82 382 0.09 63.23 53.71 255 0.06 84.28 96.06 151 0.04 121.08 115.06 104 0.03 143.56 141.86 70 0.02 164.25 4 35.01 319 0.08 83.14 51.11 214 0.05 106.00 78.87 125 0.03 149.98 103.37 86 0.02 177.40 134.95 58 0.01 242.84 5(H) 31.09 281 0.07 36.59 46.28 196 0.05 42.52 66.49 119 0.03 56.81 94.16 80 0.02 102.74 124.90 56 0.01 158.65 Table 4 states the number of trades, fraction of trading days (trading fraction), average holding period, and BETCs (breakeven transaction costs measured in basis points) for each MA quantile across all lag lengths. The sample period is from December 31, 1999, to February 29, 2016. See Data and Methodology Section for calculations and other details. Table 4 reports the results of the average holding period, no. of trades, a fraction of trading days, and breakeven transaction costs (BETC) of MA strategy for each quantile across all lag lengths. Note that BETC is the transaction cost which makes the MAG average return equal to zero. As discussed in Material and Method section, the fundamental notion of MA strategy is to use daily signals to make trades. Here the primary concern is the frequency of trading since it has to do with transaction costs. The more the strategy trades, the higher the transaction costs would be. Therefore, too many trades can make the survival of abnormal returns vulnerable to transaction costs. It necessitates seeing whether these abnormal returns can still hold after offsetting for transactions costs. As groups are formed based upon volatility, the performance of MA strategy should improve as we move towards groups with higher volatility. That is, for MA strategy to be successful, following results should hold: 14 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios   from the lowest to the highest quantile, no. of trades and a fraction of trading should rise whereas average holding period, and BETC should fall. See how results in Table 4 meet these criteria. Note that no. of trades, trading fraction, and BETC for the second to fourth quantile show opposite trend, except for the highest and the lowest quantiles. One can easily see that irrespective of the lag length, as volatility rises, no. of trades and fraction of trading days tend to decline while BETC rises. However, holding period tends to fall with rising volatility. Despite the fact, all BETCs are relatively large and well above the actual transaction costs in the UK (.45bp to 1.35pb)1,the majority of our results go against the success of MA strategy. Therefore, most of the evidence presented inTable4 lead to the reverse conclusion, that is, across all lag lengths and most quantiles, MA strategy trades less with increasing transaction costs. Therefore, we can finally conclude that when MA investment timing strategy is applied to the individual stocks, most of the results provide no evidence of its superior performance as compared to buy-and-hold strategy. Instead results of trading behavior indicate towards the failure of MA strategy. A Note on Insignificant Results quoted In statistical analysis, as the holding period gets shortened, the likeliness of data showing random noise increases (Brigham & Ehrhardt, 2013), and this may be the reason why most of the results are insignificant. Remember t-stat is also known as signal-to-noise ratio. Here signal and noise are represented by average return and standard error respectively. Notably, Table1 depicts most of the average returns to be quite healthy but having more substantial standard deviations. It leads to more significant standard errors, which substantially lower the t-stats. So, it may be argued that the daily returns on which the whole analysis is based be quite noisy, making the most results insignificant. The comparison of performance results of individual stocks and portfolios is evident in the following section. Portfolios versus Individual Stocks- Performance of MA Strategy Now, we are in a position to compare the results of MA strategy for portfolios and individual stocks.                                                                                                                         1 As quoted by Trading Services Price List (On-Exchange and OTC) published by London Stock Exchange, effective from February 1, 2016. Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 15 �Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, Wang Ghohui, Mudassar Hasan, Anika Sattar, Muneeb Ahmad, Ramiz Ur Rehman   0.19 11.93 22.75 1.34 0.39 43.50 0.82 0.07 17.60* 28.27 2.68 0.52 60.97 2.20 -0.03 (4.02) (0.89) 3 5.60 5(H) H-L 1.15 (0.11) 1.99 99.70 6.05 (0.06) -10.72 101.21 4.48 -0.03 -0.35 (-0.19) Portfolios 1(L) 3.33** 5.04* 3.19 8.80 -1.21 -1.51 20.20** 12.83 (6.14) 0.26 0.39 0.04 -0.32 18.16 (1.19) 4.52 (0.29) -2.83 47.15 -1.61 0.33 0.40 77.27 -6.73 0.08 0.40 78.08 -4.91 0.07 0.02 8.39** 3.90 2.91 1.42 0.61 -0.59 2.4 10.34** 7.03 1.94 1.06 0.58 0.16 2.45 14.55** 8.50 1.99 1.37 0.58 0.52 2.74 23.22** 9.45 2.13 2.15 0.60 4.12 22.49** 10.42 1.88 1.88 0.61 1.31 0.30 (8.37) (5.72) (6.67) (9.56) 1.37 46.18** 10.49 1.57 (17.14) 1.35 34.50** 9.93 (13.53) MAPs 3.09 (12.28) 0.51 32.63 -0.45 -0.50 (11.39) 11.86 -1.04 -0.36 21.78** 6.91 23.54** 15.06 -0.22 12.05 (0.07) (11.49) (6.09) H-L 0.25 15.35** 5.20 10.51 -1.11 0.034 17.75** 6.06 (-0.49) 5(H) 0.42 (15.91) (1.18) 4 0.38 MA(10) Timings Strategy -1.70 0.103 11.68** 2.86 (2.23) 3 (1.56) 6.45 60.76 6.60 (0.34) -13.56 61.79 4.52 4.89 (2.66) 2 25.59 -0.37 -0.04 (1.02) 37.69 4.56 (-0.34) Buy and Hold Strategy 2.55 (0.30) (2.01) 19.25 16.76 -0.16 -10.48 0.34 (1.17) (1.73) (0.54) 4 The success of MA Strategy 0.61 9.38 -0.49 Skewness 34.45 (0.94) 2 Sharpe Ratio 0.34 11.03** 14.27 2.33 -25.81 Skewness 0.55 Average Return 22.14 Sharpe Ratio 11.54 Standard Deviation MAGs Average Return MA(10) Timings Strategy Standard Deviation Buy-and-Hold Strategy Skewness Panel C Standard Deviation 1(L) Panel B Average Return Ranks Panel A Sharpe Ratio Table 5: Comparison of Table 1 (8.40) 1.64 3.18 14.10** 8.60 0.60 (6.37) See Table 5 for this comparison. It contains information of portfolios as well as individual stocks. It is evident that applying MA strategy to portfolios brings better 16 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios   results than to individual stocks-which accompany inconclusive evidence. Mostly, MA portfolios not just produce significantly positive and increasing returns, lower standard deviations, and higher Sharpe and success ratios relative to individual stocks-MA groups, but they also perform better than buy-and-hold portfolios. There could be two reasons for this superior performance- noise in daily returns and diversification effect. Impact of noise can easily be seen in the form of higher standard deviations and ultimately lower t-stats for all individual stock groups. Moreover, the better portfolio returns with lower standard deviations may also imply the benefits of diversification. Table 6: Comparison of Table 2 Rank Individual Stock Group MAGs Α Adj.R2(%) βMKT 2.38 -0.15** 5.05 (1.18) (-8.53) 3.38 -0.26** 5.71 (0.32) (-11.32) 12.18 -0.27** 4.56 (1.04) (-9.10) 18.39 -0.22** 1.64 (1.22) (-4.83) 4.93 -0.18* 0.43 (0.30) (-2.42) 8.25 -0.21** 3.48 (0.81) (-7.24) 1(L) 2 3 4 5(H) H-L α 8.47** (10.13) 10.52** (7.72) 14.77** (9.11) 23.45** (12.37) 22.67** (9.45) 14.19** (6.69) Portfolio MAPs βMKT -0.11** (-41.41) -0.24** (-54.77) -0.30** (-56.62) -0.31** (-50.31) -0.24** (-31.05) -0.13** (-18.79) Adj.R2(%) 30.28 43.18 44.82 39.07 19.62 8.19 The Table 6 is highlighting some more features. When comparing with individual stocks, note all portfolio alphas are highly significant and increasing. Similarly, all betas accompany bigger t-stats and with substantially higher adjusted r squares. Table 7: Comparison of Table 3 Groups MAG-20 Rank Average A Return 1(L) 2 3 4 5(H) MAG-50 Average α Return MAG-100 Average α Return MAG-200 Average A return Random Switching Average Α Return -0.93 1.81 -1.91 0.79 -2.73 -0.01 -2.75 -0.05 1.76 -0.60 (1.03) (1.03) (0.73) (0.72) (0.55) (0.55) (0.45) (0.45) (0.02) (-0.32) 1.54 2.35 0.27 0.98 -0.51 0.17 -0.07 0.66 5.77 6.52 (0.18) (0.19) (0.00) (0.01) (-0.11) (-0.11) (-0.07) (-0.06) (0.03) (1.04) 9.77 9.93 7.75 7.92 5.99 6.22 5.08 5.31 4.95 10.76 (0.83) (0.85) (0.52) (0.54) (0.36) (0.38) (0.28) (0.30) (0.01) (1.38) 15.62 15.86 12.29 12.54 9.26 9.53 7.79 8.06 -0.88 -7.50 (1.00) (1.03) (0.75) (0.78) (0.55) (0.58) (0.44) (0.46) (0.00) (-0.92) 1.65 2.05 1.78 2.19 2.33 2.78 1.50 1.95 4.75 20.34 Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 17 �Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, Wang Ghohui, Mudassar Hasan, Anika Sattar, Muneeb Ahmad, Ramiz Ur Rehman   Table 7 (Continued) (0.15) H-L (0.10) (0.11) (0.07) (0.09) (0.04) (0.06) (0.01) (1.16) -4.94 6.40 -3.83 4.88 0.91 3.73 2.22 3.18 3.58 1.92 (-0.03) (0.65) (-0.02) (0.43) (0.02) (0.30) (0.02) (0.24) (0.03) (0.53) Portfolios 1(L) (0.17) MAP-20 MAP-50 MAP-100 MAP-200 Random Switching 8.41** 8.48** 7.37** 7.47** 6.64** 6.74** 4.59** 4.8** 2.58 0.65 (8.36) (10.12) (7.37) (9.06) (6.94) (8.48) (5.40) (6.61) (0.04) (0.84) 2 9.93** 10.08** 8.14** 8.36** 7.93** 8.19** 5.23** 5.74** 3.42 1.42 (5.34) (6.24) (4.37) (6.2) (3.16) (4.62) (0.03) (1.08) 3 13.02** 13.2** 11.67** 11.95** 10.45** 10.78** 6.17** 6.84** 2.54 0.51 (2.88) (4.34) (0.02) (0.33) 21.05** 21.24** 17.86** 18.16** 14.49** 14.84** 8.92** 9.69** 0.23 -1.79 (5.88) 4 (8.51) 5(H) (8.22) (11.17) (4.41) (5.12) (9.53) (4.60) (6.69) (7.72) (3.54) (5.11) (0.00) (-0.96) 19.82** 19.97** 14.16** 14.37** 7.47** 7.71** 0.40 0.91 12.81 10.80** (5.10) (5.78) (2.70) (3.11) (0.15) (0.38) (0.07) (4.21) 11.41** 11.48** 6.78** 6.89** 0.82 0.96 -4.19 -3.88 11.12 9.18** (3.1) (0.35) (0.42) (-1.83) (-1.77) (0.06) (4.03) (5.11) (8.3) (7.01) (7.39) (5.62) (7.38) H-L (7.4) (5.37) (2.92) Table 7 also supports the better performance of MA strategy for portfolios as most of the average returns and alphas are significant across all portfolios, overall lag lengths, except random switching which do not provide robust results even in case of portfolios. Table 8: Comparison of Table 4 BETC Trading Fraction No. of Trades Avg. Holding Period MA-200 BETC No. of Trades Trading Fraction Avg. Holding Period MA-100 BETC Trading Fraction No. of Trades Avg. Holding Period MA-50 BETC Trading Fraction No. of Trades Avg. Holding Period MA-20 BETC No. of Trades Trading Fraction Avg. Holding Period Rank MA-10 1(L) 127.08 296 0.070 31.75 151.65 202 0.048 43.28 190.80 125 0.030 56.93 223.78 87 0.021 58.19 253.87 59 0.015 64.18 2 41.65 423 0.100 33.20 56.81 285 0.068 43.27 79.48 169 0.041 56.50 102.40 116 0.028 72.61 128.58 76 0.018 97.51 3 34.82 382 0.091 63.23 53.71 255 0.060 84.28 96.06 151 0.036 121.08 115.06 104 0.025 143.56 141.86 70 0.018 164.25 18 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios   Table 8 (Continued) 4 35.01 319 0.076 83.14 51.11 214 0.051 106.00 78.87 125 0.030 149.98 103.37 86 0.021 177.40 134.95 58 0.014 242.84 5(H) 31.09 281 0.067 36.59 46.28 196 0.046 42.52 66.49 119 0.029 56.81 94.16 80 0.019 102.74 124.90 56 0.014 158.65 MA-10 MA-20 MA-50 MA-100 MA-200 1(L) 9.64 408 0.100 31.22 15.93 246 0.062 51.80 29.14 133 0.034 83.36 60.25 63 0.016 156.39 70.86 52 0.013 127.75 2 8.71 452 0.110 34.74 14.41 272 0.069 55.32 22.19 175 0.044 69.93 52.10 73 0.018 161.32 76.65 48 0.012 157.72 3 8.96 439 0.110 50.33 13.81 284 0.072 69.42 25.52 152 0.038 115.40 56.70 67 0.017 231.55 70.86 52 0.013 171.62 4 9.81 401 0.100 87.92 15.80 248 0.062 128.56 31.24 124 0.031 216.51 45.36 84 0.021 255.97 61.57 60 0.015 215.02 5(H) 10.17 387 0.098 88.23 16.46 238 0.060 126.00 35.50 109 0.027 195.22 44.83 85 0.022 130.39 72.23 51 0.013 11.41 Table 8 which showsthe trading behavior of both strategies brings almost similar results. In both cases, we observe opposite trends across quantile and groups. Instead of increasing, no. of trades and trading fraction tend to fall. On the other hand, BETC rises across portfolios and groups instead of falling, however, remains well above the actual transaction cost in the UK. Conclusion First, we apply MA investment timing strategy to the groups of individual stocks sorted by volatility. The fact that overwhelming majority of results under MA or buy-and-hold strategies are insignificant helps to maintain that there is no evidence to support the superiority of either strategy when applied to individual stocks. However, trading behavior and success ratios across groups provide some mixed results while indicating more towards the failure of MA strategy. We argue that prevalent noise in daily stock return data is the reason for such consistency in insignificant results. Second, when applied to volatility-sorted portfolios, MA strategy substantially beats the buy-and-hold strategy by yielding higher average return and risk-adjusted return, lower standard deviation, large-and-positive skewness and Sharpe ratio, and considerable success ratios across portfolios. Both for individual stocks and portfolios, returns and especially trading behavior suggest that the performance of MA strategy diminishes as we go farther in history; that is, the longer the lag length, the worse the performance. Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 19 �Muhammad Ishfaq Ahmad, Wang Ghohui, Mudassar Hasan, Anika Sattar, Muneeb Ahmad, Ramiz Ur Rehman   References Allen, F., & Karjalainen, R. (1999). Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules1. Journal of financial economics, 51(2), 245-271. Brigham, E. F., & Ehrhardt, M. C. (2013). Financial management: Theory & practice: Cengage Learning. Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. The Journal of finance, 47(5), 17311764. Han, Y., Yang, K., & Zhou, G. (2013). A new anomaly: The cross-sectional profitability of technical analysis. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 48(5), 1433-1461. Han, Y., Zhou, G., & Zhu, Y. (2016). A trend factor: Any economic gains from using information over investment horizons? Journal of financial economics, 122(2), 352-375. Hoffmann, A. O., & Shefrin, H. (2014). Technical analysis and individual investors. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 107, 487-511. Hudson, R., Dempsey, M., & Keasey, K. (1996). A note on the weak form efficiency of capital markets: The application of simple technical trading rules to UK stock prices-1935 to 1994. Journal of Banking & Finance, 20(6), 1121-1132. Kwon, K.-Y., & Kish, R. J. (2002). Technical trading strategies and return predictability: NYSE. Applied Financial Economics, 12(9), 639-653. Lukac, L. P., & Brorsen, B. W. (1990). A comprehensive test of futures market disequilibrium. Financial Review, 25(4), 593-622. Metghalchi, M., Marcucci, J., & Chang, Y.-H. (2012). Are moving average trading rules profitable? Evidence from the European stock markets. Applied Economics, 44(12), 1539-1559. Mills, T. C. (1997). Technical analysis and the London Stock Exchange: Testing trading rules using the FT30. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2(4), 319-331. 20 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios   Neely, C. J. (1997). Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: a layman's guide. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review(Sep), 23-38. Roberts, M. C. (2005). Technical analysis and genetic programming: constructing and testing a commodity portfolio. Journal of Futures Markets, 25(7), 643-660. Shintani, M., Yabu, T., & Nagakura, D. (2012). Spurious regressions in technical trading. Journal of Econometrics, 169(2), 301-309. Sullivan, R., Timmermann, A., & White, H. (1999). Data‐snooping, technical trading rule performance, and the bootstrap. The Journal of finance, 54(5), 16471691. Taylor, M. P., & Allen, H. (1992). The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market. Journal of international Money and Finance, 11(3), 304-314. Wei, L.-Y., Cheng, C.-H., & Wu, H.-H. (2014). A hybrid ANFIS based on nperiod moving average model to forecast TAIEX stock. Applied Soft Computing, 19, 86-92. Zhou, G., & Zhu, Y. (2013). An equilibrium model of moving-average predictability and time-series momentum. Unpublished working paper, Washington University in St. Louis. Volume 7 | Issue 2 | 21 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3744 Title A name given to the resource Performance of Moving Average Investment Timing Strategy in UK Stock Market: Individual Stocks versus Portfolios Author Author Ahmad, Muhammad Ishfaq Ghohui, Wang Hasan, Mudassar Sattar, Anika Ahmad, Muneeb Rehman, Ramiz Ur Abstract A summary of the resource. Abstract: This paper aims to test whether moving average (MA) investment timing strategy is applicable on individual stocks, portfolios formed from these stocks, or both. Moreover, our objective is to compare the performance of MA strategy with a buy-and-hold strategy. The data on individual stocks listed on London Stock Exchange, United Kingdom (UK) is collected over the period starting from December 31, 1999, through February 29, 2016. For the same period, we use daily values of UK-DS Market-PRICE INDEX and 1-Month Treasury bill rate. The paper follows Han et al. (2013) to peruse our investigation. The study applies both MA and buy-and-hold strategies to individual stocks and portfolios sorted by volatility. Since most results are found insignificant, no evidence is found to support that one strategy is better than the other when applied to individual stocks. However, trading behavior and success ratios across groups provide mixed results, hinting slightly towards the failure of MA strategy. The pervasive noise in daily stock return data is the reason why MA strategy consistently produces insignificant results. Moreover, when applied to volatility-sorted portfolios, MA strategy substantially beats buy-and-hold strategy by yielding higher average return and risk-adjusted returns, lower standard deviations, large-and-positive skewness and Sharpe ratios, and much success ratios across portfolios. Both for individual stocks and portfolios, dynamics of returns and especially trading behavior suggest that the performance of MA strategy decreases with rising lag lengths, meaning MA signal weakens for a longer history. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2018 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed DOI Digital object identifier doi: "10.14706/JECOSS17722 " Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 1986-8499; H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6e5ae18a32dfaabf450c131e28a2be7a.docx 362deb96042a6a3e61111c7736cb4713 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/26cdeb0c98748e3408093b814b53ee02.pdf b0410c9dba0ce8d1ae15deb5f6ed1aad PDF Text Text PERFORMANCES OF FLAT-PLATE AND CPC SOLAR COLLECTORS IN UNDERFLOOR HEATING SYSTEMS Sarvenaz Sobhansarbandi Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus via Mersin, Turkey sobhan.sarvenaz@gmail.com Ugur Atikol Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus via Mersin, Turkey ugur.atikol@emu.edu.tr Keywords:Solar energy, Floor Heating, TRNSYS, Cyprus. ABSTRACT There is a growing interest in using solar energy in the underfloor heating systems. However, the large areas required for the placing of the solar collectors can be discouraging, especially for the apartment buildings. The objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of using Compound Parabolic Collector (CPC) collectors to replace Flat-Plat collectors in solar energy underfloor heating systems. By this way, it is aimed to explore the feasibility of area reduction required by the collectors. Secondly, the temperature profiles of the circulating water loops and the concrete slabs are sought to be examined. The simulations were carried out under the winter weather conditions of the Cyprus. The system consists of solar thermal collectors, a storage tank and circulation of water to carry the heat to 4 floor slabs. The results of the simulations show that, a CPC collector which is commonly used in producing high grade heat can work more effectively with less area occupied in this system. It is observed from this study that the outlet fluid temperature of this collector is between 25 to 95◦C, compared to that of Flat-Plate collectors which is between 25 and 75◦C. The simulations suggest that a 2 m2 CPC collector can perform satisfactorily to match the job of 8 m2 Flat-Plate collectors. The heat that is stored in the tank can supply hot water at a temperature of 60◦C which is reduced to 45◦C after mixing with cold return water before entering the floor slabs. The estimated slab temperature is approximately 24◦C which is compatible with the standards. Fluid which is passing through the slabs will eventually lose its temperature as the heat transfer occurs from the slabs to the environment. Consequently the fluid outlet temperature is observed to be approximately 25◦C. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2117 Title A name given to the resource PERFORMANCES OF FLAT-PLATE AND CPC SOLAR COLLECTORS IN UNDERFLOOR HEATING SYSTEMS Author Author SOBHANSARBANDI, Sarvenaz ATIKOL, Ugur Abstract A summary of the resource. Keywords:Solar energy, Floor Heating, TRNSYS, Cyprus. ABSTRACT There is a growing interest in using solar energy in the underfloor heating systems. However, the large areas required for the placing of the solar collectors can be discouraging, especially for the apartment buildings. The objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of using Compound Parabolic Collector (CPC) collectors to replace Flat-Plat collectors in solar energy underfloor heating systems. By this way, it is aimed to explore the feasibility of area reduction required by the collectors. Secondly, the temperature profiles of the circulating water loops and the concrete slabs are sought to be examined. The simulations were carried out under the winter weather conditions of the Cyprus. The system consists of solar thermal collectors, a storage tank and circulation of water to carry the heat to 4 floor slabs. The results of the simulations show that, a CPC collector which is commonly used in producing high grade heat can work more effectively with less area occupied in this system. It is observed from this study that the outlet fluid temperature of this collector is between 25 to 95◦C, compared to that of Flat-Plate collectors which is between 25 and 75◦C. The simulations suggest that a 2 m2 CPC collector can perform satisfactorily to match the job of 8 m2 Flat-Plate collectors. The heat that is stored in the tank can supply hot water at a temperature of 60◦C which is reduced to 45◦C after mixing with cold return water before entering the floor slabs. The estimated slab temperature is approximately 24◦C which is compatible with the standards. Fluid which is passing through the slabs will eventually lose its temperature as the heat transfer occurs from the slabs to the environment. Consequently the fluid outlet temperature is observed to be approximately 25◦C. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-24 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2233-1565 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/9ba08d2b944f43a31bdc4c2c3c0d3ab1.docx e96e3e9744e1df3805bd8cb1766c6c30 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/59e12ad88d246bbe14240d4a773183dc.pdf 2a3d7af536bf624f0e58fe94fc055d5b PDF Text Text Peripheral Study of Second-Language Acquisition Sayeh S Abdullah College of Electronic Technology/ Baniwalid, Libya Key words: inter-language, sociolinguistic, strategic competence, learning mechanisms fossilization ABSTRACT This paper includes a discussion on the nature of SLA and different approaches towards it.Factors affecting the processes of SLA has been mentioned as vital to the topic.Some key terms related to SLA has been explained so as the reader may feel at ease while going through this paper. The factors influencing the second language acquisition are included in this research as they are to be kept in while dealing with the topic of SLA. The target of research is to enhance the awareness among teachers and learners the essentials of second language equisition. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1925 Title A name given to the resource Peripheral Study of Second-Language Acquisition Author Author ABDULLAH, Sayeh S Abstract A summary of the resource. Key words: inter-language, sociolinguistic, strategic competence, learning mechanisms fossilization ABSTRACT This paper includes a discussion on the nature of SLA and different approaches towards it.Factors affecting the processes of SLA has been mentioned as vital to the topic.Some key terms related to SLA has been explained so as the reader may feel at ease while going through this paper. The factors influencing the second language acquisition are included in this research as they are to be kept in while dealing with the topic of SLA. The target of research is to enhance the awareness among teachers and learners the essentials of second language equisition. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available IBU Publishing Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-03 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/a22c8c9d10329ca86d4e6b46bef14e00.pdf 5c57ec5d1b19a37cbf1dfaae87c1a984 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Guven Ordun Faculty of Business Administration Istanbul University Turkey guven.ordun@gmail.com Asli Akun Faculty of Business Administration Istanbul University Turkey akun.asli@gmail.com Abstract: The purpose of the study is twofold. The first purpose of the study is to investigate the relations between personality characteristics and emotional intelligence of the Millennials. Costa and McCrea’s Big Five Personality Inventory (IPIP-NEO) is used to measure the personality characteristics of the millenials. Emotional intelligence dimensions are measured by Wong and Law emotional intelligence scale (WLEIS). Secondary purpose of the study is to find self-evaluations of the Millenials related with their characteristics. Roger’s Q-Sort Scale is used to find out Millenials self perceptions. An advantage of the Q-Sort Scale is that it offers straightforward assumptions about the underlying structure of a concept within demographical segments. Results reveal that use of emotion is positively correlated with conscientiousness whereas regulation of emotion is negatively correlated with Neuroticism. Furthermore, personality characteristics have effects on emotional intelligence dimensions. The effects are much more significant for regulation and use of emotions dimensions. These dimensions are assumed to be important determinants of performance within organizations so it is important to analyze the personality constructs associated with them. Depending on their self-perceptions, millienials evaluate themselves relatively high on positive traits (e.g. honest, outgoing, etc.) and low on negative traits (e.g. unhelpful, dishonest, etc.). Regarding personality characteristics, they evaluated themselves highest in openness and lowest in neuroticism. Millenials will be the dominating workforce for the upcoming years, so if they are willing to establish high performance relations, managers should better understand Millenial characteristics and perspective. Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2015 Keywords: Millenials, Personality Characteristics, Emotional Intelligence JEL Classification: J13, M14, Z13 Article History Submitted: 21 June 2015 Resubmitted: 11 January 2016 Accepted: 04 February 2016 http://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JECO SS16614 125 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun Introduction Emotions can be explained by psysiological changes in the body, cognitions, learning processes, personality, social relations, experiences, psychological conditions, cultural practices, and are grounded in daily life (Strongman, 2003). Emotional intelligence is described as monitoring and evaluating one’s own emotions, monitoring and evaluating emotions of others, regulating and using them (Hartel, et al. 2005). Whereas, cognitive intelligence is associated with the factual information about people, things, events, time, and place, emotional intelligence deals with the antecedents and mutual relations between these aspects of life (Terrell & Hughes, 2008). Personality can be defined as distinctive and stable ways of behavior (Ewen, 2010). Emotions and personality are known to be intertwined with each other. Some researches in the field (e.g. Caruso et al., 2002; Ghiabi & Besharat, 2011) have revealed that, there are significant relations between personality dimensions and emotional intelligence dimensions. This study aims to search this relation on millenials. Twenge (2009) discussed that the generation a person belongs to, can be slightly more influence on the person than his/her family. She added that it is essential to recognize the own realities of each and every generation within various contexts (Twenge, 2009). Millenials in Istanbul, Turkey are subjects of this research. However; the findings may be relevant in other cultures’s generations within the limitations of specific historical, social, and economic conditions. Theoretical Background Assesment of Personality Personality has been studied thoroughly throughout the years and researchers have stated theories about personality. The psychodynamic perspective explains the effect of the unconscious, below the surface on the structure and development of personality, whereas the humanistic perspective underlines the positive human nature and self-actualizing capability on the structure and development of personality. The trait approach emphasizes the effect of conscious, above the surface and behavior patterns on the structure and development of personality, whereas the behaviorist theory focuses on the effect of environment and learning in shaping personality. Cognitive approach emphasizes the effect of mental processes on the structure and development of personality (Ewen, 2010). Although these approaches have some commonalities in themes such as unconscious, psychopathology, etc., they explain these themes and personality in different ways which may complement each other. In this study the contribution of trait approach to personality and 126 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Roger’s, one of the well known names of humanistic approach, with his Q-sort test, and the contribution of behaviorist approach with its emphasis of the environment on human behavior, specifically from the cohort’s effect on personality characteristics of millenials can be understood. However, the contributions of psychodynamic perspective and cognitive perspective are not excluded in the sense that although they can not be measured in this research, they implicitly exist. Related with trait approach, many researchers in the field have searched for the personality factors and their measures. Especially the measure of Big Five that is composed of five factors, namely, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness is accepted as valid and reliable in various cultures (McCrea and Costa, 1997). Personality dimensions show disposition to coherent patterns of thoughts, feelings, and actions (McCrae, 2002). Revised Neo Personality Inventory assesses six specific lower level traits (facets) for each of the five function spheres or combinations of subset of attributes (domains), has been widely used (Costa & McCrae, 1995). Extraversion refers to being highly active, social and having positive feelings. Openness to experience represents the tendency to develop oneself in intellectual ways and to experience new ideas, things, people, etc. Agreeableness refers to kind, helping and thoughtful behavior. Conscientiousness is associated with determination, self-control, and achievement orientation. Neuroticism can be defined as the tendency to feel nervous, touchy, and badtempered (Furnham et al., 2003). In a study, the relationship between NEO-PI-R and MBTI that is derived from Jung’s types and developed by Myers was examined. According to the results, NEO-PI-R’s extraversion was correlated positively with MBTI’s extraversion and negatively correlated with introversion. MBTI’s sensingintuition type explains how people perceive information and openness was negatively associated with achieving information through senses and MBTI’ sensing and positively associated with discovering possibilities that are unobvious and MBTI’s intuition. MBTI’s thinking-feeling type describes how people judge information. Agreeableness was found out negatively related with analyzing and MBTI’s thinking and positively related with experiencing emotions and MBTI’s feeling. MBTI’s judging-perceiving type signifies how people comprehend and work with information. Conscientiousness was positively correlated with reaching conclusions and MBTI’s judging and negatively correlated with becoming aware and MBTI’s perceiving. MBTI’s extraversion-introversion type describes how mental orientation toward life is. Neuorticism was negatively related with MBTI’s extraversion and positively related with MBTI’s introversion (Furnham et al., 2003). Lately, The Revised Neo, modified in a more readable way, has been called as NEO-PI-3. It was Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2016 127 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun found out to be psychometrically better even than sound NEO-PI-R and applicable to adolescent sample (McCrae, Costa & Martin, 2004). In this study, IPIP-NEO with 120 statements is used. This short verison of IPIP-NEO has been found out valid and reliable (Johnson, 2014). Emotional Intelligence Emotions and motivation have the same Latin root of “move”. Not suprisingly, emotions influence people’s behaviors, choices, etc. People generally decide between moving toward to pleasure, moving away from pain, moving against obstacles, and stopping as focusing on and giving attention to what one is doing. Stopping is also a tactic that animals such as rabbits use to survive. Stopping requires a high degree of emotional intelligence to control automatic responses and impulses. People may develop stopping through meditation (Terrell & Hughes, 2008). Approaching from another perspective, deriving from the basics of relational emotive theraphy emotions are cognitions derived from one’s assessments of social environment that lead to certain feelings (Strongman, 2003). Deutschendorf (2009) provided historical background of emotional intelligence research. Researchers have worked on the types of intelligence since 1900s. BarOn developed one of the first valid tests in the field. In 1990 John Mayer, Peter Salovey, and David Caruso developed ability based emotional intelligence test. In 1995 Daniel Goleman published his book “Emotional Intelligence” that gained public interest and became a bestseller. In 1998, Goleman published his second book “Emotional Intelligence in the Workplace” which strenghtened the success and understanding of the concept (Deutschendorf, 2009). Salovey and Mayer (1990) view emotions as organized responses, crossing the boundaries of many psychological subsystems, including the physiological, cognitive, motivational, and experiential systems. Emotions typically arise in response to an event, either internal or external, that has a positively or negatively valenced meaning for the individual. Emotions can be distinguished from the closely related concept of mood in that emotions are shorter and generally more intense. Emotional intelligence is not about behaving in good manner or behaving accordingly only to one’s own intentions (Goleman, 1998). Emotional intelligence refers to recognizing one’s own emotions, emotions of others and managing emotions in social relations (Goleman, 1998). Goleman mentioned five main emotional and social abilities as self-awareness, self-regulation, internal motivation, empathy, and social skills (Goleman, 1998). 128 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Emotional intelligence has also been researched in Turkish literature. Sahin et.al (2009) analyzed relations between emotional intelligence, stress tolerance and Type A Personality. Findings revealed that emotional intelligence is negatively correlated with Type A personality and positively correlated with stress tolerance. İsmen (2001) analyzed the relations between emotional intelligence and self evaluated problemsolving skills and specified a positive correlation between these concepts. Erkus and Gunlu (2008) found positive relations between emotional intelligence and dimensions of transformational leadership. Karahan and Yalcin (2009) examined the effect of emotional intelligence skills training program on emotional intelligence skills improvement by pretest-posttest design. Emotional intelligence was measured by Hall’s self-evaluation scale including emotional awareness, managing emotions, self-motivation, empathy, and coaching other people’s emotions dimensions. The study revealed that the program was indeed useful for developing emotional intelligence skills both in short and long-terms (Karahan & Yalcin, 2009). Personality and Emotional Intelligence In literature, there have been studies that investigated the relationships between personality dimensions and emotional intelligence. Ghiabi and Besharat (2011) found that emotional intelligence is positively related with extraversion, openness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness, negatively related with neuroticisim. Furthermore, emotional intelligence was positively predicted by extraversion and negatively predicted by neuroticism. Extraversion is explained as an attribute, which eases experiencing pleasure and having positive emotions, with the effect of emotional intelligence, and it will lead to high quality relationships (Ghiabi and Besharat, 2011). Caruso, Mayer, and Salovey (2002) mentioned that ability based emotional intelligence measures are distinguishable from the personality measures in the sense that they measure an ability, a kind of intelligence. In their study they used multi factor emotional intelligence scale and 16 PF. The results showed that emotional intelligence positively correlated with sensivity primary factor and extraversion global factor (Caruso et al., 2002). Sudak and Zehir (2013) analyzed the relations between emotional intelligence, personality types and job satisfaction. Their findings have represented significant correlations between all dmiensions of personality and emotional intelligence. Highest positive correlation was between agreeableness and other emotional appraisal. Although personality and emotions have been investigated in literature, integration of the generation cohort to these dimensions is relatively few. Petrides et al. (2007) investigated the relation between personality characteristics and emotional intelligence. Their sample mean age was 25 Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2016 129 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun and considered to be within the millennial cohort. They found significant relations between personality characteristics and emotional intelligence. Bergman et al. (2011) analyzed the relation between narcissism and social network usage of the millennial generation. Narcissism was not found to be as the main predictor of social network usage and discussed that millennials’ social network usage was not solely about attention seeking or maintaining self-esteem (a common stereotype for “Generation Me”), but also a means of connecting and communicating. Despite all common beliefs a comprehensive investigation is needed for milennial generation. Millenials as a Generation Cohort According to researchers, macro-level social, political and economic events that occur during the pre-adult years of a cohort result in a generational identity comprising a distinctive set of values, beliefs, expectations and behaviors. These values, beliefs, expectations and behaviors remain constant throughout a generation’s lifetime (Jackson et al., 2011). As generally accepted in the literature four major cohorts exist: Veterans were born between 1920 and 1945; Baby Boomers between 1946 and 1964; Generation X members were born between 1965 and 1980 and Generation Y between 1981 and 2000. Each generation has its own characteristics due to different economic, social, and political world events of their times. Great Depression and World War II in veteran’s generation, Civil Rights Movements and Cold War in baby boomers’ generation, Challenger explosion and Fall of Berlin Wall in Xers generation, and intense use of computers and multiculturalism in Y generation are among the striking events of their times (Zemke, et al., 2000). Regarding the general characteristics of Millenial generation, the most striking is that they are globally connected through Internet and social media (Ordun, 2015). When the literature about millennial cohort is analyzed, it seems that in different continents different aspects of the millenials’ attributes gained more attention for studying. In US the researches on millenials have concentrated on topics such as social media (e.g. Nusair et al., 2013), consumers (e.g. Wolf et al., 2005); in Europe main topics of research mostly focused on culture (e.g. Mihelcea et al. 2013) and communication and multilingualism (e.g. Sundberg, 2013); in Asia studies mostly focused on negotiation (e.g. Vieregge & Quick, 2010) and hospitality management (e.g. Kong et al., 2015); in Australia, domestic tourism (e.g. Gardiner et al., 2014); in Africa, technology (e.g. Dlodlo & Mahlangu, 2013). 130 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Turkey is a transcontinental country between Europe and Asia. According to the historical perspective, post Republican era in Turkey witnessed important socio political events. Taking its roots from 1960s onwards, the political crisis and instability resulted in 1980 military coup (Kaya Ozcelik, 2011). Being sensitive to changes and developments in the world and specifically in Western societies, Turkish science and philosophy has also been affected. After 1980s, poverty, development, diversity and identity have mostly been emphasized. After 1990s globalization and postmodernity started to determine the sociologic agenda (Ozcan, 2009). Thus, the desired and undesired effects of the historical conditions on that current generation and the following generations have become inevitable. Depending on the problematic situations before 1980s upcoming generations were thought to be not interested in politics however recent events signified that Y generation university students have expressed their sociopolitical preferences through social media (Cakar Mengu, et al., 2015). Yuksekbilgili (2013) investigated the characteristics of millenials revealed in Turkey. The sample consisted of 603 millenials in Turkey and the findings revealed that they trust their technological abilities more than listening, effective communication, teamwork, and time management abilities. Millenails thought that they don’t have skills for managing communication with difficult people especially as they define themselves as impatient. Although they were not highly committed to their organizations they were willing to work more in order to get an early promotion. They also favor online shopping (Yuksekbilgili, 2013). Another study with a sample of 1247 people, aimed to identiy the age interval of Y generation in Turkey. The birth dates have ranged from 1983 to 1995 for millenials in Turkey, different from the generally accepted 1980-2000 interval. The difference was explained with the latency in dispersion of technological advances and internet use in Turkey (Yuksekbilgili, 2015). The millenials in Bosnia and Herzegovina have had different historic, socio economic conditions and so experiences than rest of Europe. Röper and Gavranidou (2003) mentioned that after the Bosnian War (1991-1995), healing trauma, providing trainings, and counseling for coming generations have become important issues. Eder (2014) also stated the war’s negative socioeconomic consequences such as forced migration and financial difficulties and negative effects on youth education. All in all, Y generation is expected to be involved in a diverse working environment. Diversity refers to varied attributes regarding demographics, psychological conditions, knowledge, values, skills, interests, and experiences (Landy and Conte, 2007). Deriving from generational diversity, the clash of values and views are more Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2016 131 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun visible in workplaces where multigenerations work together. Being aware of the fact that people may have different generational backgrounds, this may serve as barriers regarding stereotypes. Especially when there is uncertainity and crisis, conflict shows itself as tension and understanding generational differences may bridge the gaps (Zemke, et al., 2000). Hypotheses of the Study The main assumption of the study focuses on the intercorrelations of the dimensions. Dimensions of Emotional Intelligence and their correlates with Big 5 personality traits are investigated. In addition, millenials’ self-perception is explored by Roger’s Q-Sort scale. As it was mentioned before, some personality traits (i.e. extraversion, neuroticism) have been found closely associated with emotional intelligence. Accordingly, the hypotheses are stated below: H1. Emotional intelligence dimensions of Millennials are correlated with main personality attributes. The main dimensions of emotional intelligence defined as self-emotional appraisal, other emotional appraisal, regulation of emotions and use of emotions. Regression analysis has been computed to find out personality determinants of each emotional intelligence dimension. H2. Emotional intelligence dimensions are influenced by personality traits. In addition, Millenials self-perception was explored by Roger’s Q-Sort scale. Methodology Sample The sample consists of 237 undergraduate students in Turkey, Istanbul. Since Istanbul has a cosmopolit structure, it is to a certain extent representative for Turkey. According to the demographics 118 females and 119 males answered the questionnaires. The participants are from three public universities in Istanbul; Bogazici University, Marmara University, and Istanbul University. 132 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Measures Emotional intelligence is measured using the 16 items self-report Wong and Law (2002) Trait Emotional Intelligence Scale (WLEIS). Emotional intelligence measure has 4 dimensions and 4 items for each as self emotional appraisal dimension (I have a good sense of why I have certain feelings most of the time) others’ emotional appraisal (I am a good observer of others’ emotions), regulation of emotions (I am able to control my temper and handle difficulties rationally), and use of emotions (I set goals for myself and then try my best to achieve them) (Wong & Law, 2002). Personality characteristics were assessed by the IPIP-NEO-120, which is the short form of IPIP-NEO by Goldberg and based on Costa and McCrea’s NEO-PI-R (1992) (Johnson, 2014). IPIP-NEO-120 has 5 domains, which consist of 6 facets with 4 items for each facet. Neuroticism domain includes anxiety, anger, depression, self-consciousness, immoderation, and vulnerability facets. Extraversion domain consists of friendliness, gregariousness, assertiveness, activity level, excitement seeking, and cheerfulness facets. Openness to experience domain includes imagination, artistic interests, emotionality, adventurousness, intellect, and liberalism facets. Agreeableness domain consists of trust, morality, altruism, cooperation, modesty, and sympathy facets. Conscientiousness domain includes selfefficacy, orderliness, dutifulness, achievement-striving, self-discipline, and cautiousness facets. The scale has showed strong psychometric properties (Johnson, 2014). Q Sort is a test of congruence between perceived and ideal self and Rogers, one of the well known names of humanistic perspective, (1961) used this test in psychotheraphy process of their clients. 24 adjectives have been used in order to reveal out only their self-evaluations. The scales are measured on a 5-point Likerttype scale ranging from 1 (totally disagree) to 5 (totally agree). The short definitions of the dimensions are presented in the table 1. Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2016 133 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun Table 1: Definitions Emotional Intelligence Dimensions Self Emotional Appraisal Other Emotional Appraisal Regulation of Emotions Use of Emotions Big Five Personality Traits Neuroticism Extraversion Openness Agreeableness Conscientiousness Definition Understanding one’s emotions Observation & sensitivity to others’ emotions Control, adjust emotions & soothe oneself Use emotions in constructive ways Definition Have negative feelings & feel threatened Feel enthusiasm in most relationships Feel pleasure with various experiences Have kind & understanding relationships Be persistent & control impulses *i * ii Analysis and Results Mean scores and standart deviations are calculated for either of the inventory dimensions. Table 2: Mean Scores and Std. Deviations of Emotional Intelligence Dimensions Emotional Intelligence Dimensions Self Emotional Appraisal Other Emotional Appraisal Regulation of Emotions Use of Emotions Mean 3,71 3,72 3,37 3,58 Std. Deviation 0,71 0,68 0,86 0,71 Self-emotional appraisal and other emotional appraisal have the highest mean scores. While self-emotional appraisal is related with awareness of one’s self-emotions, other emotional appraisal is related with feeling empathy for others. While regulation of emotions is mostly related with controlling the urges instead of driven by them, use of emotions is associated with motivation and self-efficacy. The lowest mean score that millennials ranked themselves among all dimensions is the regulation of emotions. 134 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Table 3: Mean Scores and Std. Deviations of Big Five Personality Traits Big Five Personality Traits Neuroticism Extraversion Openness Agreeableness Conscientiousness Mean 2,78 3,46 3,57 3,42 3,51 Std. Deviation 0,50 0,44 0,45 0,46 0,52 Neuroticism is related with the tendency to experience unpleasant emotions such as anger, worry or depression; it also refers to the degree of emotional instability and impulsivity. Extraversion refers to the positive feelings and good social relations. Those individuals with high levels of extraversion experience positive emotions and have high levels of energy, assertiveness and sociability. Openness is associated with the appreciation of new and unfamiliar. It is also related with the imaginative capacity of the individidual. Agreeableness is about having the tendency to cooperate rather than being suspicious towards others. It is also related with one’s trusting and helping nature. Conscientiousness is associated with self-discipline, dutifulness and aim for achievement (McCrae & Costa, 1989). In this research, openness has the highest and neuroticism has the lowest mean score. Table 4: Mean Scores and Std. Deviations of Personality Facets Main Traits Neuroticism Extraversion Openness Facets Anxiety Anger Depression Self-Consciousness Immoderation Vulnerability Friendliness Gregariousness Assertiveness Activity Excitement Cheerfulness Imagination Artistic Emotionality Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2016 Mean 3.07 3.08 2.44 2.72 2.76 2.56 3.50 3.03 3.73 3.28 3.39 3.79 3.96 3.63 3.82 Std. Deviation 0.85 0.97 0.71 0.67 0.73 0.77 0.67 0.87 0.61 0.70 0.80 0.72 0.77 0.77 0.63 135 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun Agreeableness Conscientiousness Adventurousness Intellect Liberalism Trust Morality Altruism Cooperation Modesty Sympathy Efficacy Orderliness Dutifulness Achievement Discipline Cautiousness 3.16 3.63 3.18 3.28 3.78 3.96 3.13 2.60 3.74 3.74 3.23 3.97 3.47 3.30 3.32 0.69 0.79 0.68 0.86 0.87 0.65 0.75 0.65 0.73 0.64 0.95 0.65 0.75 0.70 0.82 Although anxiety and anger facets are slighty positive, every other facet in neuroticism domain is under mean score of neuroticism. Among all, depression has the lowest mean score. Anxiety can be defined as fear for the worst possibility, worry for things and low resistance to stress. Low resistance to irritation and being quicktempered characterize anger. Depression, which has the lowest mean score, signifies feeling dislike and uncomfort for self (Johnson, 2014). Cheerfulness has the highest and gregariousness has the lowest mean scores among extraversion domain. Having and radiating joy and loving life in a bright perspective describe cheerfulness. The lowest scored facet gregariousness signifies preferring crowds and talking with many different people in social gatherings (Johnson, 2014). Imagination has the highest and adventurousness has the lowest mean score in openness domain. Having new ideas and enjoying fantasies characterize imagination. Adventurouness signify orientation to change and variety (Johnson, 2014). Among the domain agreeableness, altruism has the highest and modesty has the lowest mean score. Low scorers in modesty believe they are superior and may be considered arrogant by others. Altruism can be defined as manifest in an active concern for the welfare of others (Johnson, 2014). Dutifulness has the highest and orderliness has the lowest mean score in conscientiousness domain. Dutifulness can be described by adherence to truth, rules, and promises. Orderliness can be characterized by putting things back in their place and tidying up (Johnson, 2014). In addition, among all facets dutifulness has the highest and vulnerability has the lowest mean scores. 136 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Table 5: Correlations between Dimensions of Emotional Intelligence and Big Five Personality Traits Correlations 1 1.self appraisal 2.other appraisal emotional emotional 2 3 4 5 6 1 .157* .162* 1 .054 .050 .232** 1 5.neuroticism -.115 .049 -.216** 1 .451** 6.extraversion .252** .236** .255** .164* -.304** 1 7.openness .204** .170** .144* .152* -.190** .330** 8.agreeableness -.005 .130* .053 .323** -.107 9.conscientiousness .074 .167* .595** .334** -.351** .194** 4.regulation emotions of 8 9 1 .333** 3.use of emotions 7 .037 1 .370** 1 .308** .389** 1 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). According to the correlation results, one of the most powerful relations is between use of emotions and conscientiousness (r=.60, p<.01). The facets of conscientiousness are self-efficacy, orderliness, dutifulness, achievement striving, selfdiscipline, and cautiousness (Johnson, 2014). Use of emotions refers to the ability to utilize one’s own emotions to increase one’s performance (Bitmis & Ergeneli, 2014). Thus, it is understandable that people’s abilities to employ their emotions are significantly and positively related with their efficacy, goal-attainment, discipline, and care. Furthermore, one of the other most powerful relations is found between regulation of emotions and neuroticism. Accordingly, regulation of emotions has negative and significant correlation with neuroticism (r=-.45, p<.01). The facets of neuroticism are anxiety, anger, depression, self-consciousness, immoderation, and vulnerability (Johnson, 2014). Regulation of emotions refers to one’s ability to adjust one’s emotions (Bitmis & Ergeneli, 2014). It is coherent that people’s abilities to Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2016 137 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun regulate their emotions will be negatively related with their worry, bad-temper, unbalanced acts, and fragility. In addition, there are other significant relations between variables however they are not as strong as the relations that was explained in previous paragraphs. Self emotional appraisal is related significantly and positively with extraversion (r=.25, p<.01) and openness (r=.20, p<.01). Other emotional appraisal is correlated with significantly and positively with extraversion (r=.24, p<.01), openness (r=.17, p<.01), agreeableness (r=.13, p<.05), and conscientiousness (r=.17, p<.05). Use of emotions is significantly and negatively associated with neuroticism (r=-.22, p<.01), whereas it is significantly and positively associated with extraversion (r=.26, p<.01) and openness (r=.14, p<.05). Regulation of emotions is found to have significant and positive correlations with extraversion (r=.16, p<.05), openness (r=.15, p<.05), agreeableness (r=.32, p<.01), and conscientiousness (r=.33, p<.01). Table 6: The Impact of Big Five Personality Traits on Self Emotional Appraisal by Regression Analysis R Model Summary R Square .305 Correlations (Constant) Neuroticism Extraversion Openness Agreeableness Conscientiousness .093 Adjusted Square .073 Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error .027 .063 -.044 .070 .195 .070 .156 .073 -.082 .072 .033 .074 R ANOVA F Sig. 4.606 .001 Standardized Coefficients Beta -.044 .196 .157 -.083 .032 t .427 -.626 2.788 2.140 -1.136 .439 Sig. .670 .532 .006 .033 .257 .661 All in all, in addition to the powerful correlations between use of emotions and conscientiousness and regulation of emotions and neuroticism, extraversion is found to have significant and positive relations with all dimensions of emotional intelligence. It is meaningful that people who feel comfortable with people, have control in relationships, are socially active, and enjoy adventure may also 138 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context comprehend one’s own emotions and emotions of others around and they may adjust their emotions in social life and make use of them constructively. The model summary table shows that big five personality traits can explain the % 7 of change in self emotional appraisal significantly (p<.01). From the coefficients table, it can be seen that only extraversion (p<.01) and openness (p<.05) have positive and significant effects on self emotional appraisal. It is coherent that extraverted people, who experience themselves in social situations and people who are open to experience, being interested in ideas, discussions, and arts, are likely to realize their emotions much more. Table 7: The Impact of Big Five Personality Traits on Other Emotional Appraisal by Regression Analysis Model Summary R .333 Correlations (Constant) Neuroticism Extraversion Openness Agreeableness Conscientiousness R Square .111 ANOVA Adjusted Square .091 R Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error .000 .064 .189 .070 .246 .070 .061 .073 .064 .072 .150 .075 F 5.594 Standardized Coefficients Beta .188 .243 .060 .064 .147 Sig. .000 t .003 2.711 3.506 .827 .888 2.008 Sig. .997 .007 .001 .409 .375 .046 The model summary table shows that Big Five Personality traits can explain %9 of change in other emotional appraisal significantly (p< .001). From the coefficients table, it can be seen that neuroticisim (p<.01), extraversion (p<.01), and conscientiousness (p<.05) have significant effects on other emotional appraisal. It is understandable that neurotic people, who worry about things easily, are likely to be sensitive to the clues in their social environment such as others’ emotions although the appraisal of it will probably be negative. In addition, it is meaningful that extraverted people, who are busy with social contacts and conscientiousness people, who give importance to integrity and discipline, are likely to be more sensitive to the emotions of others. The question may come to the mind that agreeableness which is related with concern and feel sorry for problems of others why not came up as Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2016 139 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun statistically significant for its effect on understanding emotions’s of others. This might be explained by the meaning, content of agreeableness is related with sempathy (Johnson, 2014) rather than empathy. Table 8: The Impact of Big Five Personality Traits on Regulation of Emotions by Regression Analysis Model Summary R .538 Correlations (Constant) Neuroticism Extraversion Openness Agreeableness Conscientiousness R Square .290 ANOVA Adjusted Square .274 Unstandardized Coefficients B Std . Error .000 .056 -.384 .062 .042 .062 -.074 .065 .272 .064 .103 .066 R F 18.288 Standardized Coefficients Beta -.384 .042 -.074 .273 .102 Sig. .000 t .003 -6.211 .670 -1.145 4.246 1.559 Sig. .998 .000 .504 .253 .000 .120 The model summary table shows that big five personality traits can explain %27 of change in regulation of emotions significantly (p<.001). From the coefficients table, it can be understood that neuroticisim (p<.001) and agreeableness (p<.001) have significant effects on regulation of emotions. Neurotics, who are bad-tempered and get owerhelmed easily, are less likely to control anger and cope with difficulties rationally. Agreeable people, who prefer cooperation and modesty, are more likely to have good control of their emotions and be calm in difficult situations. The model summary table indicates that big five personality traits can explain % 41 of change in use of emotions significantly (p<.001). From the coefficients table, it can be seen that only extraversion (p<.01), agreeableness (p<.01), and conscientiousness (p<.001) have significant effects on use of emotions. It is coherent that extraverted people who are socially active and take charge and conscientious people, who strive for achievement, actualize plans, think and decide cautiously, are likely to be motivated to do the best for their goals. It is also found out that agreeable people, who trust others and like to help others, are less likely to set selforiented goals and concern more for other-oriented goals. 140 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Table 9: The Impact of Big Five Personality Traits on Use of Emotions by Regression Analysis Model Summary R .653 Correlations R Square .426 (Constant) Neuroticism Extraversion Openness Agreeableness Conscientiousness ANOVA Adjusted Square .413 R F 33.278 Unstandardized Coefficients B Std. Error .003 .051 .031 .056 .165 .056 -.038 .059 -.190 .058 .684 .060 Sig. .000 Standardized Coefficients Beta .031 .163 -.038 -.189 .672 t .062 .561 2.920 -.655 -3.266 11.433 Sig. .951 .575 .004 .513 .001 .000 Table 10: Self-Appraisals of Millennials on Roger’s Q-Sort List of Attributes Adjective Anxious Attractive Careless Depressed Dishonest Energetic Funny Happy Honest Intelligent Kind Lazy Mean 3,03 3,24 3,09 2,53 2,19 4,00 3,54 3,54 4,24 4,05 4,03 3,07 Std. Dev. 1,14 1,15 1,44 1,24 1,25 0,94 1,21 1,20 0,78 0,87 0,94 1,35 Rank 18 14 16 21 23 5 11 11 1 3 4 17 Adjective Optimistic Organized Out-Going Plain Relaxed Sad Serious Shy Sloppy Strong Unhelpful Weak Mean 3,77 3,70 4,06 3,62 3,91 2,65 3,41 3,16 3,01 3,61 1,95 2,24 Std. Dev. 1,09 1,13 0,88 1,19 1,16 1,16 1,10 1,35 1,34 1,03 1,16 1,17 Rank 7 8 2 9 6 20 13 15 19 10 24 22 In Roger’s self assessment inventory, the adjective “honest” has the highest mean value and “unhelpful” has the lowest mean value that means most millenials perceive themselves as honest and only some perceive themselves as unhelpful. In addition to the self-assessment results, as can be seen in the aforementioned paragraphs, the two hypotheses of the study are supported. Volume 6 Number 1 Spring 2016 141 �Guven Ordun, Asli Akun Conclusions and Discussion Early millennials are about to gradute from faculties and this might be the best chance to identify their characteristics, preferences, needs and values as they are supposed to have a say on world issues soon. In the scope of this research, the personality characteristics and their impact on emotional intelligence were studied. In addition, since every one else seems to say something about them; some with positive connotations (innovative, smart, well-educated, organized, social, ambitious etc) and some with negative connotations (lazy, irresponsible, impatient, selfish, disrespectful, etc), this study aims to understand their self-perception from their point of views. According to the correlation results, personality constructs have significant relations with emotional intelligence dimensions as indicated in the aforementioned analysis part in detail. By the evaluation of the regression analyses, the prediction capacity of personality construct especially on regulation and use of emotion dimensions is identified. As those dimensions are considered to be important on the level of performance and advancement, the importance of personality assessment in personnel selection might need to be reevaluated. Both hypotheses proposing significant relations between the dimensions of emotional intelligence and personality traits are accepted. Depending on the mean scores of Roger’s Q-sort list it can also be identified that positive traits are evaluated more than negative traits. Honest, out-going, intelligent, and kind have the highest mean scores while unhelpful, dishonest, weak and depressed have the lowest mean scores. Although there have been studies that have examined the relationship between personality and emotional intelligence in many contexts, this study has a different aim, model, and measured the concepts differently. In addition, the results can be useful for millenials’ retention in work life adaptively, contributing their success to organizational performance, and decreasing youth unemployment as much as possible within the limitations of socioeconomic framework. In further researches, the effect of cultural context on this relationship can also be taken into consideration. The research topic can be investigated in other geographies in Turkey rather than Istanbul or in different countries. Also, in further studies when adequate numbers of millennials have significant roles in work life, relation between personality characteristics and performance scores need to be investigated with the mediator role of emotional intelligence. 142 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context In addition, in one of the interviews that was published in a business and economics journal, Guler Sabanci, one of the most well-known and successful woman in Turkey, talked about understanding Y generation. Deriving from her experiences, she mentioned that it is important for all people to read the changing world comprehensively. She added that instead of market share millenials care about share of heart, they give importance to the universal values such as equality, sustainability and social responsibility and they have the long-term perspective. She stated that these factors could be important for their loyalty (Capital, 2015). In future, the researches regarding the practical implications of the values and preferences of millenials can be examined in social and business context. It is also crucial to make sense of present and future socioeconomic conditions by considering history and what it has tought. This is valid not only for countries but also for individuals and groups as well. In this regard, youth as a sample who is at the intersection of past and future, who are affected by past, write today, and shape future conditions although bounded by the world’s circumstances, is a vital source of research. References Bergman, S. M., Fearrington, M. E., Davenport, S. W., & Bergman, J. Z. (2011). 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Managing the Clash of Veterans, Boomers, Xers, and Nexters in Your Workplace. Performance Research Associates, Inc. i Libbrecht, N., Lievens, F. &Schollaert, E. (2010). Measurement Equivalence of the Wong and Law Emotional Intelligence Scale Across Self and Other Ratings. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 70 (6), 1007-1020. ii McCrae, R. R. &Allik, J. (2002) The Factor Model of Personality Across Cultures. Springer Science Business Media. 148 Journal of Economic and Social Studies � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2972 Title A name given to the resource Personality Characteristics and Emotional Intelligence Levels of Millenials: A Study in Turkish Context Author Author ORDUN, Guven AKUN, Asli Abstract A summary of the resource. The purpose of the study is twofold. The first purpose of the study is to investigate the relations between personality characteristics and emotional intelligence of the Millennials. Costa and McCrea’s Big Five Personality Inventory (IPIP-NEO) is used to measure the personality characteristics of the millenials. Emotional intelligence dimensions are measured by Wong and Law emotional intelligence scale (WLEIS). Secondary purpose of the study is to find self-evaluations of the Millenials related with their characteristics. Roger’s Q-Sort Scale is used to find out Millenials self perceptions. An advantage of the Q-Sort Scale is that it offers straightforward assumptions about the underlying structure of a concept within demographical segments. Results reveal that use of emotion is positively correlated with conscientiousness whereas regulation of emotion is negatively correlated with Neuroticism. Furthermore, personality characteristics have effects on emotional intelligence dimensions. The effects are much more significant for regulation and use of emotions dimensions. These dimensions are assumed to be important determinants of performance within organizations so it is important to analyze the personality constructs associated with them. Depending on their self-perceptions, millienials evaluate themselves relatively high on positive traits (e.g. honest, out-going, etc.) and low on negative traits (e.g. unhelpful, dishonest, etc.). Regarding personality characteristics, they evaluated themselves highest in openness and lowest in neuroticism. Millenials will be the dominating workforce for the upcoming years, so if they are willing to establish high performance relations, managers should better understand Millenial characteristics and perspective. Keywords: Millenials, Personality Characteristics, Emotional Intelligence. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2016 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed DOI Digital object identifier doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JECOSS16614 Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 1986 – 8502, HB Economic Theory Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 821 Title A name given to the resource Personality Factors According to the Five Factors Model in Accomplished Multilingual Foreign Language Learners Author Author Biedron, Adriana Abstract A summary of the resource. For several decades the issue of personality effects on second language acquisition has been high on the agenda of many second language acquisition researchers (cf. Dewaele, 2009). Nevertheless, personality and other non-intellectual characteristics are considered to be weakly correlated with cognitive abilities and, as a result, they are not likely to explain variance in the outcomes of learning a foreign language (cf. Robinson & Ellis, 2008). On the other hand, some researchers being aware of the potential of personality factors in the development of foreign language aptitude call for research on this neglected field (cf. Dörnyei, 2009, 2010; Hu & Reiterer, 2009; Hyltenstam & Abrahamsson, 2003; Moyer, 2007). The purpose of the study reported here was to analyze personality factors defined according to the “Five Factor Model” (McCrae & Costa, 2003) in accomplished multilinguals. The factors included: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness and Neuroticism. An instrument used in the study was The Revised NEO-FFI Personality Inventory (Costa & McCrae, 1992) - a Polish adaptation by Zawadzki et al. (1998). The results of 44 accomplished multilinguals were compared to the results of 37 mainstream first-year English philology students. The analysis revealed that the factor of Openness to experience was significantly higher in the accomplished multilinguals than in the mainstream L2 learners. The other factors, that is Neuroticism, Agreeableness, Extraversion and Conscientiousness did not reveal statistically significant differences between the samples. Openness is a factor that is relatively stable and the most genetically determined of all the Five Factors. It includes a cognitive aspect, which means that people who score high on general cognitive ability tend to display openness to new experiences and intellectual curiosity and flexibility (Corno et al., 2002). A suggestion that Openness to experience is a good predictor of the outcomes of learning a foreign language is discussed. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3483 Title A name given to the resource PERSONALITY TRAITS OF FOREIGN LANGUAGE TEACHERS FOR YOUNG LEARNERS Author Author Stec, Maria Studenska, Anna Abstract A summary of the resource. The knowledge concerning personality traits of foreign language teachers for young learners which contribute positively to teaching process is still insufficient. The paper will present the investigation that involves the collection of experts’ opinions on the personality traits required from good foreign language teachers for young learners. The Adjective Checklist was be used in the research to collect data from 26 experts - professionals in teacher education and foreign language teachers of young learners.The investigation is the first part of the project aiming at constructing personality measurement tool helpful in counselling candidate for foreign language teachers. Keywords: foreign language teachers, young learners, personality traits Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/43a4f8fbece23b74023a357e7aa77dc0.docx ec3e231bcaae3b18503ebd6abd15ea1a https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/aad24a14e964b549eaf520e03d8649ca.pdf 7f1dc2c3ed22c6eec5438fb3828129a8 PDF Text Text ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. 423 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. UDK: 338.124.4 (497.5):336.76 (497.6) pregledni članak 29. ožujka 2014. Mr.sc. Goran DODIG, Zaklada za inovacijski i tehnološki razvitak PERSPEKTIVE HRVATSKIH PROIZVOĐAČA I IZVOZNIKA NAFTNIH DERIVATA NA TRŽIŠTU BiH Sažetak: U ovom radu će biti napravljena analiza međusobne robne razmjene Bosne i Hercegovine i Hrvatske u segmentu naftnih derivata, a bit će provedena analiza i usporedba sa vanjskotrgovinskom razmjenom u segmentu naftnih derivata između Mađarske i Bosne i Hercegovine s obzirom da je Mađarska od 01.05.2004. članica EU te su prošli integracijske procese koji Hrvatsku tek očekuju. Pored navedenog analizirat će se i utjecaj dinamike završetka modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija na tržište naftnih derivata u BiH. U ovom radu koristit će se metode analize i sinteze, deskripcija postojećeg stanja, standardne logičke metode. Kvantitativnom i komparativnom metodom Statističko -analitičko metodom ću se posebno koristiti kod analize ukupne vanjskotrgovinske razmjene između Hrvatske i BiH, te vanjskotrgovinske razmjene u segmentu naftnih derivata. Induktivno-deduktivna metodom koristit će se pri analizi utjecaja dinamike procesa modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija nafte na tržište naftnih derivata u BiH. S obzirom da je predmet istraživanja izuzetno širok, metodološki pristup temeljen je prije svega na analizi sekundarnih podataka tj. desk istraživanju. Utvrđeno je da će dinamika završetka procesa modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija nafte utjecati na tržište naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini, budući da će proizvodni rafinerijski kapaciteti znatno premašiti potrebe tržišta za naftnim derivatima. Pridruživanjem Hrvatske EU prestao je vrijediti Ugovor o slobodnoj trgovini sa BiH koji je omogućavao Hrvatskim izvoznicima povlašten položaj. Uvoznici u BiH će se otvoriti za nova-stara tržišta koja su u proteklom periodu bila manje zastupljena. Sa ovog aspekta pristupanje RH Europskoj uniji negativno će utjecati na konkurentnost hrvatskih izvoznika naftniha derivata. Ključne riječi: Vanjska trgovina, integracije, Europska Unija. Key words: Foreign trade, integrations, European Union, 424 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. 1. UVOD Bosna i Hercegovina je izuzetno bitan vanjskotrgovinski partner Republike Hrvatske, a vanjskotrgovinska razmjena odvijala se u okviru Ugovora o slobodnoj trgovini koji je Hrvatskim izvoznicima omogućavao povlašten položaj. Ulazak Hrvatske u EU znači pristup izuzetno liberaliziranom tržištu te će samim tim Hrvatski izvoznici izgubiti povlašten položaj jer navedeni Ugovor ne vrijedi za članice EU. Integracijski procesi koji očekuju Hrvatsku u narednom periodu značajno će utjecati na konkurentnost Hrvatskih izvoznika u segmentu trgovine naftnim derivatima, pa će samim tim i utjecaj na vanjskotrgovinsku bilancu Republike Hrvatske biti velik s obzirom na udio navedenog segmenta u ukupnoj vanjskotrgovinskoj razmjeni bez obzira što Hrvatski izvoznici u svom proizvodnom inputu sadrže veliku uvoznu komponentu. Posebno će biti zanimljivo pratiti zbivanja na regionalnom tržištu naftnih derivata zbog činjenice da najveći Hrvatski izvoznik investira u povećanje obujma proizvodnje iako nema jasnu strategiju plasmana proizvodnog asortimana. Samim tim se i postavlja pitanja opravdanosti i pravovremenosti investicija u povećanje obujma proizvodnje ako je jasno da će nakon završetka investicijskog ciklusa proizvodni kapaciteti značajno premašiti potrebe tržišta Republike Hrvatske, dok će se udio na stranim tržištima znatno smanjiti. H1 - Konkurentnost Hrvatskih izvoznika naftnih derivata na tržištu Bosne i Hercegovine će se smanjiti ulaskom Hrvatske u Europsku Uniju. Pridruživanjem Hrvatske EU prestao je vrijediti Ugovor o slobodnoj trgovini sa BiH koji je omogućavao Hrvatskim izvoznicima povlašten položaj. Uvoznici u BiH će se otvoriti za nova-stara tržišta koja su u proteklom periodu bila manje zastupljena. H2 - Dinamika završetka procesa modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija nafte će utjecati na tržište naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini. S obzirom da će pridruživanjem Republike Hrvatske EU Hrvatski izvoznici izgubiti povlašten položaj na tržištu naftnih derivata u BiH, nužno je bilo poduzeti konkretnije korake u cilju zaštite pozicije na tržištu. Jedna od mogućnosti bila bi ozbiljniji pokušaj sudjelovanja na javnom natječaju za privatizaciju Rafinerije Bosanski Brod, što je izostalo. Kao posljedica propusta je činjenica da će se dugoročno izgubiti veliki dio tržišta u BiH u navedenom segmentu. Ako se uzme u obzir da najveći Hrvatski proizvođač i izvoznik naftnih derivata investira milijardu i pol eura, između ostalog, u povećanje proizvodnih kapaciteta u svojim rafinerijama, te da će proizvodni kapaciteti biti znatno veći od potreba tržišta RH na kojem se ionako smanjuje udio, postavlja se pitanje da li su navedene investicije stigle prekasno, te da li je bilo potrebno poduzeti druge korake u cilju zaštite udjela na domaćem i inozemnom tržištu. „Drugi korak“ prvenstveno se odnosi na investiciju u kupovinu Rafinerije u Bosanskom Brodu kojom bi se u velikoj mjeri zaštitio 425 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. interes na tržištu naftnih derivata u BiH. Navedena investicija se u velikoj mjeri mogla financirati iz višegodišnjeg ekstra profita koji je ostvarivala INA pri izvozu naftnih derivata neplaćajući carinska davanja temeljem Ugovora o slobodnoj trgovini sa BiH. Kupovina rafinerije Bosanski Brod dugoročno bi značila stabilnu poziciju INE na tržištu naftnih derivata u BiH, s obzirom da bi kupovina rafinerije od strane INE znatno usporila dolazak i poziciju velikih naftnih kompanija na tržištu BiH. Budući da je nakon 20 godina obnovljen transport rijekom Savom, da je potpisan ugovor sa Janaf-om o transportu nafte i naftnih derivata rijekom Savom, da je potpisan sporazum o transportu željeznicom iz Slavonskog Broda sa HŽ-om, te da petogodišnji investicijski ciklus ruskih naftnih kompanija koji završava 2014. podrazumjeva investicije samo u rafineriju u Bosanskom Brodu u iznosu od 675 milijuna eura jasno ukazuje na cilj ruskih naftnih kompanija da postanu lideri na tržištu naftnih derivata u BiH. Ciljevi istraživanja u okviru ovog rada su: - Analizirati dosadašnju robnu razmjenu Republike Hrvatske i BiH u segmentu naftnih derivata. - Analizirati dinamiku završetka modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija i njihov utjecaj na tržište naftnih derivata u BiH. - Utvrditi moguće posljedice pridruživanja Hrvatske Europskoj uniji na razmjenu naftnih derivata s BiH te predložiti mjere za smanjenje mogućih negativnih efekata na hrvatski izvoz. 2. METODE ISTRAŽIVANJA Kako bi ispitali postavljene hipoteze te ostvarili ciljeve zadane u ovom radu koristit će se metode analize i sinteze, deskripcija postojećeg stanja, standardne logičke metode. Kvantitativnom i komparativnom metodom ću se posebno koristiti u pri ispitivanju hipoteze H1 koja glasi „Ulaskom Hrvatske u Europsku Uniju smanjiti će se konkurentnost hrvatskih izvoznika naftnih derivata na tržištu Bosne i Hercegovine“ u kojima se uspoređuje vanjskotrgovinska razmjena Mađarske i BiH u segmentu naftnih derivata. Statističko-analitičko metodom ću se posebno koristiti kod analize ukupne vanjskotrgovinske razmjene između Hrvatske i BiH, te vanjskotrgovinske razmjene u segmentu naftnih derivata. Induktivno-deduktivna metodom koristit će se pri ispitivanju hipoteze H2 „Na tržište naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini bitno će utjecati dinamika procesa modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija nafte“. S obzirom da je predmet istraživanja izuzetno širok, metodološki pristup temeljen je prije svega na analizi sekundarnih podataka tj. desk istraživanju. Osnovni izvori 426 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. sekundarnih podataka uključuju dostupnu inozemnu i domaću literaturu, stručne časopise i znanstvene članke, razne on-line baze podataka te periodične statistike ovlaštenih zavoda. Pored ovih metoda za ostvarenje ciljeva istraživanja vrlo će korisno biti i višegodišnje iskustvo autora u segmentu vanjskotrgovinske robne razmjene naftnih derivata. 3. UVOZ NAFTNIH DERIVATA IZ MAĐARSKE U BOSNU I HERCEGOVINU Poznata je činjenica da je Mađarska od 01.05. 2004. godine punopravna članica EU, te ću u tom kontekstu i analizirati uvoz naftnih derivata u BiH iz Mađarske.. S obzirom da Agencija za statistiku BiH podatke ažurira od 2003. počet ću sa analizom za 2003. godinu i to dio koji se odnosi na grupu proizvoda unutar tarifne oznake 2710. Tarifna oznaka 2710 podrazumijeva naftna ulja dobivena od bitumenskih minerala, osim sirovih, što sadrže 70% ili više masenog udjela naftnih ulja ili ulja dobivenih od bitumenskih minerala, koji čine osnovne sastojke tih proizvoda. Radi lakše usporedbe i detaljnije analize odabrani su derivati koji ukupno čine više od 90% uvoza u BiH a dio su tarifne oznake 2710, odnosno odabrani su derivati koji čine najveći udio u potrošnji (BMB 95, MB 98, BMB 98, Euro Diesel, lož ulje).S obzirom da je Mađarska pristupila EU 01.05.2004. godine tj sredinom godine vanjskotrgovinska robna razmjena između Mađarske i BiH nije u kratkom periodu, odnosno u 2004. godini značajnije oscilirala, čak je tijekom 2004. godine zabilježen blagi rast uvoza naftnih derivata u BiH iz Mađarske. Grafikon 1.Vrijednost i količina uvoza odabranih naftnih derivata iz Mađarske u BiH za period 2003.-2009. godina 250.000.000,00 200.000.000,00 150.000.000,00 VRIJEDNOST KM 100.000.000,00 KOLIČINA KG 50.000.000,00 0,00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Izvor:Agencija za statistiku BiH; obrada autora 427 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. Na grafikonu 1. su jasno vidljivi, za mađarsko gospodarstvo negativni efekti pridruživanja EU. S obzirom na datum pristupanja 2004. godina i ne može biti referentna godina u ovoj analizi, tako da su efekti mjerljivi od 2005. godine. Izuzetak je 2008. godina koja bilježi porast vrijednosti i količine uvezenih naftnih derivata u BiH iz Mađarske. Razlozi porasta uvoza u Bosnu i Hercegovinu iz Mađarske leže u činjenici da je 2008. godinu obilježilo niz zanimljivih događaja na tržištu nafte i naftnih derivata koji argumentiraju nagli porast uvoza naftnih derivata iz Mađarske u BiH. Razlog porasta vrijednosti uvezenih naftnih derivata u 2008.godini u odnosu na 2007. godinu za 61,37%, te porasta količine uvezenih derivata za 33,45% leži u činjenici da je drugu polovicu godine obilježilo izuzetno nestabilno tržište nafte i naftnih derivata, kako na globalnom tako i na regionalnom tržištu kada je najveći hrvatski proizvođač naglo smanjio ponudu količina naftnih derivata iz svojih rafinerija i distributivnih skladišta i tim potezom destabilizirao tržište naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini. U tom periodu je nastala pomutnja među trgovcima naftnim derivatima koji su u kratkom roku morali pronaći alternativna rješenja što nije bilo niti malo jednostavno i značajno je poskupljivalo nabavku naftnih derivata. 4. ANALIZA POTENCIJALNIH EFEKATA PRIDRUŽIVANJA RH EUROPSKOJ UNIJI NA TRŽIŠTE NAFTNIH DERIVATA U BiH Ugovorima o slobodnoj trgovini između Bosne i Hercegovine i jednog broja zemalja, prije svega s Hrvatskom, Mađarskom i Srbijоm i Crnom Gorom, doveo je naftnu privredu ovih zemalja u povlašten položaj na tržištu nafte u BiH. Ukidanjem carine sa navedenim zemljama derivati iz njihovih rafinerija cjenovno su postali znatno konkurentniji u odnosu na derivate iz trećih zemalja na koje je obračunavana carina od 10 %. Ulaskom Mađarske u Europsku uniju, prestala je važnost ugovora o slobodnoj trgovini, što je utjecalo na smanjenje uvoza derivata iz ove zemlje, mada Mađarska kompanija MOL poduzima sve da održi konkurentnost i prisutnost na tržištu BiH. Radi kontrole kvaliteta naftnih derivata i uvođenja reda na tržištu, Vijeće ministara Bosne i Hercegovine donijelo je u srpnju 2002. godine Odluku o kontroli kvalitete tekućih naftnih derivata kојi se uvoze u Bosnu i Hercegovinu. Ovom Odlukom predviđeno je da uvozni derivati moraju odgovarati euro-standardima, dok su derivati iz domaće proizvodnje izuzeti, a rafineriji nafte Bosanski Brod je ostavljen rok da do kraja 2006. godine mora početi proizvodnju po utvrđenim standardima. Donesena је i odgovarajuća regulativa, kojom je regulirano da se sve obaveze na derivate р1аćајu pri uvozu, što је imalo utjecaja na sređivanje stanja na tržištu. 428 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. Svaka država utvrđuje pravila, kako u prometu tako posebno za uvoz naftnih derivata, i raznim mjerama uređuje i vrši zaštitu vlastitog tržišta. U prometu naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini praktično su postojala tri gospodarska sustava (dva entiteta i država), promatrano sa aspekta zakonske regulative u domeni akcize i poreza, što je pogodovalo razvoju sive ekonomije. Sve ovo je utjecalo da se ne uspostavi jedinstveno tržište i jedinstven ekonomski prostor u naftnom gospodarstvu u Bosni i Hercegovini sa posljedicama koje ćе dugoročno djelovati na ovaj sektor gospodarstva. Donošenjem Zakona o indirektnom oporezivanju i uspostavljanjem Uprave za indirektno oporezivanje na državnom nivou uklonjene su unutrašnje barijere u prometu naftnih derivata i uspostavlja se jedinstveno tržište nafte i naftnih derivata. Liberalizacija uvoza gotovih proizvoda kao jedan od ciljeva ekonomske politike u reformiranom gospodarskom ambijentu je nesporan, ali i država mora utvrditi pravila ponašanja na tržištu nafte i naftnih derivata. Pristup domaćem tržištu mora biti reguliran kriterijima u oblasti standardizacije i procedura koje su prihvaćene međunarodnim pravilima i jasno definiranim instrumentima njegove zaštite. Sva rješenja i mjere uređenja tržišta, moraju imati antimonopolski karakter i omogućiti maksimalno djelovanje tržišta. Grafikon 2.Vrijednosti uvoza naftnih derivate iz Mađarske u BiH za period 2003.-2009. godina Izvor:Agencija za statistiku BiH; obrada Autora; Maljanović ,A. (adisa.maljanovic@bhas.ba), 14.05.2010. Uvoz nafte i naftnih derivate.E-mail za Dodig, G.(goran.dodig@auro.ba) Grafikon 3.Količina uvoza naftnih derivata iz Mađarske u BiH za period 2003.-2009. godina 429 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. Izvor: Agencija za statistiku BiH; obrada Autora; Maljanović, A.(adisa.maljanovic@bhas.ba), 14.05.2010. Uvoz nafte i naftnih derivate.E-mail za Dodig, G.(goran.dodig@auro.ba) Na grafikonu 2. i 3. su jasno vidljivi, za mađarsko gospodarstvo negativni efekti pridruživanja EU. S obzirom na datum pristupanja 2004. godina i ne može biti referentna godina u ovoj analizi, tako da su efekti mjerljivi od 2005. godine. Izuzetak je 2008. godina koja bilježi porast vrijednosti i količine uvezenih naftnih derivata u BiH iz Mađarske. Razlozi porasta uvoza u Bosnu i Hercegovinu iz Mađarske leže u činjenici da je 2008. godinu obilježilo niz zanimljivih događaja na tržištu nafte i naftnih derivata koji argumentiraju nagli porast uvoza naftnih derivata iz Mađarske u BiH. Razlog porasta vrijednosti uvezenih naftnih derivata u 2008.godini u odnosu na 2007. godinu za 61,37%, te porasta količine uvezenih derivata za 33,45% leži u činjenici da je drugu polovicu godine obilježilo izuzetno nestabilno tržište nafte i naftnih derivata, kako na globalnom tako i na regionalnom tržištu kada je najveći hrvatski proizvođač naglo smanjio ponudu količina naftnih derivata iz svojih rafinerija i distributivnih skladišta i tim potezom destabilizirao tržište naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini. U tom periodu je nastala pomutnja među trgovcima naftnim derivatima koji su u kratkom roku morali pronaći alternativna rješenja što nije bilo niti malo jednostavno i značajno je poskupljivalo nabavku naftnih derivata. Prema iskustvu autora povećani su troškovi prijevoza robe zbog udaljenih destinacija utovara (Kopar, Pečuh) produljen je vremenski rok isporuke naftnih derivata te samim tim povećan angažman prijevoznika, dok su neki zbog rigoroznih mađarskih prometnih zakona izbjegavali angažmane koji podrazumijevaju utovare u mađarskim 430 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. rafinerijama. S obzirom na umjetno i stvorenu krizu, trgovci i distributeri su u potrazi za alternativnim rješenjima koristili mogućnosti uvoza iz drugih zemalja poput Italije, Rumunjske, Turske i naravno Mađarske. Direktan i isključivi razlog porasta uvoza naftnih derivata u BiH iz Mađarske je naglo smanjenje raspoloživih količina u rafinerijama i distributivnim skladištima najvećeg Hrvatskog proizvođača. Grafikon 4.Vrijednosti uvoza naftnih derivate iz RH u BiH za period 2003.-2009. godina Izvor: Agencija za statistiku BiH; obrada Autora; Maljanović, A.(adisa.maljanovic@bhas.ba), 14.05.2010. Uvoz nafte i naftnih derivate.E-mail za Dodig, G.(goran.dodig@auro.ba) Iz grafikona 4. je vidljivo da ukupna vrijednost uvoza promatranih naftnih derivata kontinuirano bilježi rast u promatranom periodu, osim u 2009. kad bilježi pad vrijednostiuvezene količine od 53,7%. Vidljivo je i to da porast vrijednosti uvoza ne prati porast uvezenih količina pa je zabilježen pad u 2005. 2008. i u 2009. godini u odnosu na prethodne godine što ukazuje na dinamiku promjene cijena na globalnom i regionalnom tržištu naftnih derivata. 431 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. Grafikon 5.Količina uvoza naftnih derivata iz RH u BiH za period 2003.-2009. godina Izvor: Agencija za statistiku BiH; obrada Autora; Maljanović, A.(adisa.maljanovic@bhas.ba), 14.05.2010. Uvoz nafte i naftnih derivate.E-mail za Dodig, G.(goran.dodig@auro.ba) U grafikonu 4. i 5. je vidljivo da je najveća razina cijena naftnih derivata na globalnom i regionalnom tržištu bila tijekom 2008. godine, dok je najniža bila tijekom 2003. godine. U 2009. godini je prvi put nakon 2005. godine prosječna vrijednost uvezenih količina po kilogramu manja od jedne konvertibilne marke. Vidljivo je i to da je period 2008. i 2009. godina izuzetno turbulentan period na tržištu naftnih derivata. Ono što je najvažnije i ono što bi trebalo najviše zabrinuti najvećeg hrvatskog izvoznika vidljivo je u grafikonu 2. i 3., a to je činjenica da je pad uvoza promatranih naftnih derivata u Bosnu i Hercegovinu iz Mađarske direktno povezan sa pristupanjem Mađarske Europskoj Uniji i to je potencijalni efekt pristupanja Republike Hrvatske Europskoj Uniji na tržište naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini. 5. ANALIZA POTENCIJALNIH EFEKATA MODERNIZACIJE HRVATSKIH RAFINERIJA NA TRŽIŠTE NAFTNIH DERIVATA U BIH U Rafineriji nafte Bosanski Brod postoje dvije tehnološke linije za preradu nafte, ukupnog kapaciteta 4 320 000 tona godišnje. Stara linija prerade, kapaciteta 2 milijuna tona godišnje, započela je s radom 1968. godine. Danas može preraditi 1 320 000 tona sirove nafte godišnje. Nova linija, završena 1991. godine, ima instalirani kapacitet od 3 000 000 t/god. Uslijed započetih ratnih zbivanja nova je linija samo puštena u probni rad, no nije započela s radom. Pregovori o privatizaciji Rafinerije nafte Bosanski Brod započeli su 2005. godine, u paketu s Rafinerijom ulja Modriča i banjalučkim Petrolom, s kompanijom NefteGazInKor, koja je dio ruske državne kompanije Zarubezhneft iz Moskve. 432 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. Rafinerija nafte Sisak jedna je od dviju rafinerija INA d.d. Udaljena je 50 km od Zagreba koji bilježi najveću potrošnju derivata u zemlji. Rafinerija prerađuje naftu iz domaćih izvora te rusku naftu uvezenu naftovodima Družba 1 i Družba 2. Moguća je i opskrba naftom s Mediterana putem naftovoda JANAF. Rafinerija godišnje preradi u prosjeku 2,0-2,2 milijuna tona nafte. Rafinerija proizvodi UNP, motorne benzine, primarni benzin, gorivo za mlazne motore, petrolej za bušotine, loživa ulja, naftni kokszeleni i kalcinirani te bitumen. Rafinerija u Rijeci (Urinj) u vlasništvu INE d.d., smještena je 12 km južno od Rijeke, s vlastitom lukom za dopremu i otpremu roba, sirove nafte i naftnih derivata. Postrojenja za proizvodnju maziva i bitumena nalaze se na Mlaki. U Rafineriji nafte Rijeka proizvodi se ukapljeni naftni plin, primarni benzin, motorni benzini, petroleji, gorivo za mlazne motore, dizelska goriva, loživa ulja, brodska goriva, bitumeni, tekući sumpor, bazna ulja, motorna i industrijska maziva, mazive masti i parafin.1 Tablica 1. Projekcija potrošnje i proizvodni kapaciteti rafinerija Rafinerija miljuni tona Instalirani kapaciteti 2005 B.Brod ukupno 4,5 2,3 1,3 8,1 5,313 0,135 5,448 Potrošnja matičnih država 4,64 1,2 5,84 4,2 11,9 1,71 6,92 4,2 11,9 2,41 7,81 4,5 Potrošnja matičnih država Instalirani kapaciteti 2020 Sisak Proizvodnja Instalirani kapaciteti 2010 Rijeka Potrošnja matičnih država 3,2 5,21 4,5 3,2 5,4 Izvor: Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar 1 Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar (2008) Studija energetskog sektora u BiH: Modul-Nafta. Bosna i Hercegovina 433 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. 6. ZAKLJUČAK Osnovno pitanje je što će se desiti sa vanjskotrgovinskom robnom razmjenom u segmentu trgovine naftnim derivatima između Republike Hrvatske i Bosne i Hercegovine nakon pristupanja Republike Hrvatske Europskoj Uniji. Hipoteze postavljene u ovom radu su da će se konkurentnost Hrvatskih izvoznika naftnih derivata na tržištu Bosne i Hercegovine smanjiti ulaskom Hrvatske u Europsku Uniju te da će dinamika završetka procesa modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija nafte utjecati na tržište naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini.Pridruživanjem Hrvatske EU prestat će vrijediti Ugovor o slobodnoj trgovini sa BiH koji je omogućavao Hrvatskim izvoznicima povlašten položaj. Uvoznici u BiH će se otvoriti za nova-stara tržišta koja su u proteklom periodu bila manje zastupljena. Kroz ovaj rad prikazana je razmjena u segmentu naftnih derivata između Mađarske i BiH. Ulaskom Mađarske u Europsku uniju, prestala je važnost ugovora o slobodnoj trgovini, što je direktno utjecalo na smanjenje uvoza derivata iz ove zemlje, mada Mađarska kompanija MOL poduzima sve da održi konkurentnost i prisustvo na tržištu BiH što joj je teško uspijevalo i vidljivo je grafikonu 1. Godinu 2008. je obilježilo niz zanimljivih događaja na tržištu nafte i naftnih derivata koji argumentiraju nagli porast uvoza naftnih derivata iz Mađarske u BiH. Nakon što je barel nafte u ljeto 2008. dosegnuo rekordnih 147 dolara, uslijedio je drastičan pad cijene na svjetskom tržištu, što je prema dolje povuklo i rezultate kompanija. Razlog porasta vrijednosti uvezenih naftnih derivata u 2008.godini u odnosu na 2007. godinu za 61,37%, te porasta količine uvezenih derivata za 33,45% leži u činjenici da je drugu polovicu godine obilježilo izuzetno nestabilno tržište nafte i naftnih derivata, kako na globalnom tako i na regionalnom tržištu. Naime, u navedenom periodu najveći Hrvatski proizvođač je naglo smanjio ponudu količina naftnih derivata iz svojih rafinerija i distributivnih skladišta. S obzirom na udio tržišta koji je snabdijevan iz navedenih izvora jasno je da je u kraćem roku nastala pomutnja među trgovcima naftnim derivatima koji su u kratkom roku morali pronaći alternativna rješenja što nije bilo niti malo jednostavno i značajno je poskupljivalo nabavku naftnih derivata. Direktan i isključivi razlog porasta uvoza naftnih derivata u BiH iz Mađarske tijekom 2008. godine je naglo smanjenje raspoloživih količina u rafinerijama i distributivnim skladištima najvećeg Hrvatskog proizvođača. Negativan efekt smanjenja raspoloživih količina naftnih derivata u rafinerijama u Rijeci i Sisku znatno se osjetio i u 2009. godini što je vidljivo u grafikonu broj 2., a zabrinjavajuća je činjenica da su postojeću situaciju u dobroj mjeri iskoristile naftne kompanije iz Rusije što je vidljivo iz podatka Agencija za statistiku BiH o uvozu mineralnih goriva i maziva i srodnih proizvoda. Naime, do 2009. godine Rusija nije bila značajan vanjskotrgovinski partner Bosni i Hercegovini, a tijekom 2009. godine prema 434 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. podacima Agencija za statistiku BiH u Bosnu i Hercegovinu iz Rusije uvezeno je mineralnih goriva i maziva i srodnih proizvoda u vrijednosti od 805.753.000KM. S obzirom da će pridruživanjem Republike Hrvatske EU Hrvatski izvoznici izgubiti povlašten položaj na tržištu naftnih derivata u BiH, nužno je bilo poduzeti konkretnije korake u cilju zaštite pozicije na tržištu. Jedna od mogućnosti bila bi ozbiljniji pokušaj sudjelovanja na javnom natječaju za privatizaciju Rafinerije Bosanski Brod, što je izostalo. Kao posljedica propusta je činjenica da će se dugoročno izgubiti veliki dio tržišta u BiH u navedenom segmentu. Ako se uzme u obzir da najveći Hrvatski proizvođač i izvoznik naftnih derivata investira milijardu i pol eura, između ostalog, u povećanje proizvodnih kapaciteta u svojim rafinerijama, te da će proizvodni kapaciteti biti znatno veći od potreba tržišta RH na kojem se ionako smanjuje udio, postavlja se pitanje da li su navedene investicije stigle prekasno, te da li je bilo potrebno poduzeti druge korake u cilju zaštite udjela na domaćem i inozemnom tržištu. „Drugi korak“ prvenstveno se odnosi na investiciju u kupovinu Rafinerije u Bosanskom Brodu kojom bi se u velikoj mjeri zaštitio interes na tržištu naftnih derivata u BiH. Navedena investicija se u velikoj mjeri mogla financirati iz višegodišnjeg ekstra profita koji je ostvarivao najveći hrvatski proizvođač pri izvozu naftnih derivata neplaćajući carinska davanja temeljem Ugovora o slobodnoj trgovini sa BiH. Kupovina rafinerije Bosanski Brod dugoročno bi značila stabilnu poziciju najvećeg hrvatskog proizvođača na tržištu naftnih derivata u BiH, s obzirom da bi kupovina rafinerije od strane najvećeg hrvatskog proizvođača znatno usporila dolazak i poziciju velikih naftnih kompanija na tržištu BiH. Budući da je nakon 20 godina obnovljen transport rijekom Savom, da je potpisan ugovor sa Janaf-om o transportu nafte i naftnih derivata rijekom Savom, da je potpisan sporazum o transportu željeznicom iz Slavonskog Broda sa HŽ-om, te da petogodišnji investicijski ciklus ruskih naftnih kompanija koji završava 2014. Podrazumijeva investicije samo u rafineriju u Bosanskom Brodu u iznosu od 675 milijuna eura jasno ukazuje na cilj ruskih naftnih kompanija da postanu lideri na tržištu naftnih derivata u BiH. S obzirom na najavljene investicijske cikluse u rafinerije u regiji, te s obzirom na činjenice da MOL ima svoje rafinerije, da se udio na naftnom tržištu najvećeg hrvatskog proizvođača smanjuje usljed dolaska i povećanja tržišnog udjela stranih kompanija poput OMV-a, Petrol-a, Lukoil-a, te s obzirom da svi oni imaju “svoje“ dobavljače, jasno se nameće pitanje iskoristivosti rafinerijskih proizvodnih kapaciteta. Iz tablice 1. jasno je vidljivo da će instalirani prerađivački kapaciteti znatno premašiti potrošačke kapacitete Republike Hrvatske i Bosne i Hercegovine, tj planirani instalirani prerađivački kapaciteti će biti za 4,09 milijuna tona veći od projiciranih potrošačkih kapaciteta. S obzirom na višak preradbenih kapaciteta potrebno je razmotriti mogućnost zatvaranja određenih preradbenih kapaciteta. Jedan od bitnih čimbenika prilikom procjene eventualnog zatvaranja preradbenih 435 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. kapaciteta je promjena u vlasničkoj strukturi rafinerija. Ukoliko dođe do okrupnjavanja preradbenih kapaciteta odnosno više rafinerija bude imalo istog vlasnika, za očekivati je zatvaranje viška preradbenih kapaciteta. U protivnom, neće doći do zatvaranja već samo do smanjenja iskorištenja preradbenih kapaciteta, a osnova za konkurentnost biti će u kvaliteti proizvoda i ostvarenoj cijeni. Iz ovog aspekta, na poslovanje rafinerija direktno će utjecati dinamika završetka modernizacija regionalnih rafinerija. LITERATURA Andrijanić, I. (2005) Poslovanje u vanjskoj trgovini. Zagreb:Mikrorad Babić, M. i Babić, A.(2000) Međunarosna ekonomija. Zagreb: Mate Bilas, V. (2006) Analiza integracijskih trendova u svijetu i položaj Hrvatske. Doktorska disertacija. Zagreb: Ekonomski fakultet. Boromisa, A.(2004) Prvi krug proširenja EU na države središnje i istočne Europemoguće posljedice na gospodarstvo Hrvatske. Doktorska disertacija. Zagreb: Ekonomski fakultet Grgić, M. i Bilas, V. (2008) Međunarodna ekonomija. Zagreb: Lares plus. Kandžija V., Gospodarski sustav Europske unije, Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Rijeci, Rijeka, 2003. Kinnock,N., Bridging gaps in Financing Infrastructure,1998, p. 3. Matić, B. (2004) Međunarodno poslovanje. Zagreb: Sinergija nakladništvo. Ostalo Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar, Studija energetskog sektora u BiH, Hrvatska, 2008. Agencija za statistiku BiH, Bruto domaći proizvod prema rashodnom pristupu 2005.2008., Sarajevo, 2009. 436 �ZBORNIK RADOVA PRAVNOG FAKULTETA SVEUČILIŠTA U MOSTARU, XXII-XIII, 2014. Internet stranice www.bhas.ba, Agencija za statistiku BiH www.cbbih.ba , Centralna banka BiH www.komorabih.com, Vanjskotrgovinska komora BiH www.poslovni.hr, poslovni portal www.business.hr, poslovni portal www.ina.hr, Ina d.d. Zagreb http://www.rafinerija.com, Rafinerija Bosanski Brod 437 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3029 Title A name given to the resource PERSPEKTIVE HRVATSKIH PROIZVOĐAČA I IZVOZNIKA NAFTNIH DERIVATA NA TRŽIŠTU BiH Author Author DODIG, Goran Abstract A summary of the resource. U ovom radu će biti napravljena analiza međusobne robne razmjene Bosne i Hercegovine i Hrvatske u segmentu naftnih derivata, a bit će provedena analiza i usporedba sa vanjskotrgovinskom razmjenom u segmentu naftnih derivata između Mađarske i Bosne i Hercegovine s obzirom da je Mađarska od 01.05.2004. članica EU te su prošli integracijske procese koji Hrvatsku tek očekuju. Pored navedenog analizirat će se i utjecaj dinamike završetka modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija na tržište naftnih derivata u BiH. U ovom radu koristit će se metode analize i sinteze, deskripcija postojećeg stanja, standardne logičke metode. Kvantitativnom i komparativnom metodom Statističko -analitičko metodom ću se posebno koristiti kod analize ukupne vanjskotrgovinske razmjene između Hrvatske i BiH, te vanjskotrgovinske razmjene u segmentu naftnih derivata. Induktivno-deduktivna metodom koristit će se pri analizi utjecaja dinamike procesa modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija nafte na tržište naftnih derivata u BiH. S obzirom da je predmet istraživanja izuzetno širok, metodološki pristup temeljen je prije svega na analizi sekundarnih podataka tj. desk istraživanju. Utvrđeno je da će dinamika završetka procesa modernizacije regionalnih rafinerija nafte utjecati na tržište naftnih derivata u Bosni i Hercegovini, budući da će proizvodni rafinerijski kapaciteti znatno premašiti potrebe tržišta za naftnim derivatima. Pridruživanjem Hrvatske EU prestao je vrijediti Ugovor o slobodnoj trgovini sa BiH koji je omogućavao Hrvatskim izvoznicima povlašten položaj. Uvoznici u BiH će se otvoriti za nova-stara tržišta koja su u proteklom periodu bila manje zastupljena. Sa ovog aspekta pristupanje RH Europskoj uniji negativno će utjecati na konkurentnost hrvatskih izvoznika naftniha derivata. Ključne riječi: Vanjska trgovina, integracije, Europska Unija. Key words: Foreign trade, integrations, European Union Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Faculty of Law, University of Mostar Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed K Law (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/38362b4b9fab8161e5da8597e31a7de8.pdf aad0288ae4061b9c627a3b20450da342 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Women’s Environmental Network (WEN) 2007, Women’s Manifesto on Climate Change Wiley 2009, Social sustainability. [Online] Wiley. http://eu.wiley.com/legacy/wileychi/egec/ [Accessed 20 April 2010]. Available at: WWF-UK, 2006, Let Them Eat Cake: Satisfying the New Consumer Appetite for Responsible Brand Wiley 2009, Social sustainability. [Online] Wiley. http://eu.wiley.com/legacy/wileychi/egec/ [Accessed 20 April 2010]. Available at: WBCSD 2008, Sustainable Consumption Facts and Trends, [Online] Available at: http: //www.wbcsd.org/templated/ TemplateWBSCD/layoutap?MendID=1 [Accessed 25 April 2010]. WWF-UK, 2006, Let Them Eat Cake: Satisfying the New Consumer Appetite for Responsible Brand Persuade to Buy: Implications for Online Advertising Alma Jeftić1, Dženan Đonko International University of Sarajevo1, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mail: ajeftic@ius.edu.ba Abstract The aim of this article is to explore the development of a variety of online advertising tools and the implications that the characteristics of these tools have on their effectiveness, as well as to discover how important are the amount and nature of cognitive processing that a person does about a persuasive message in order to determine the kind of persuasion that occurs. Even though advertisements are a necessary and important component of the Internet, most users are merely concerned with the quality of online experience and do not appreciate pop-up ads. However, the majority of previous researches in the area of online advertising lack in application of psychological theories of information processing and attitude change. This article seeks to explore the connection between cognitive processing and consumers' online experience as well as behaviour change in order to provide the most important factors that attract customers. The study 18 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo is designed in qualitative research approach in which literature review method has been chosen. The overview of contemporary researches in the area of online advertising will be provided together with the analysis of psychological aspects of information processing. Moreover, this study aims to obtain deeper understanding of elaboration likelihood model with the special emphasize on two routes an individual will take in a persuasive situation and its application to online advertisements. It is concluded that cognitive aspects of information processing as well as elaboration likelihood model need to be taken into account when creating online advertisements, especially banners and pop-up ads. Also, the list of major factors that attract customers' and should be elaborated in each advertisement is result of this qualitative research study. Keywords: online advertising; persuasion; cognitive processing; banners; pop-up ads; elaboration likelihood model; consumer behaviour; perceived intrusiveness. 1. INTRODUCTION Even though advertisements are a necessary and important component of the Internet, most users are merely concerned with the quality of online experience and do not appreciate pop-up ads. Recent researches that explored forced viewing of online advertisements provided an understanding of how consumers experience forced exposure situations in interactive environment and also shed some light on feelings of irritation and avoidance as two major consequences of perceived intrusiveness. However, the majority of previous researches in the area of online advertising lack in application of psychological theories of information processing and attitude change. This article seeks to explore the connection between cognitive processing and consumers' online experience as well as behaviour change in order to provide the most important factors that attract customers. Moreover, this study aims to obtain deeper understanding of elaboration likelihood model with the special emphasize on two routes an individual will take in a persuasive situation and its application to online advertisements. Two factors that most influence which route an individual will take in a persuasive situation are motivation and ability. Which route is taken is also determined by the extent of elaboration. Under high elaboration, a given variable can either serve as an argument, or as a biasing factor, while under conditions of low elaboration, a given variable can act as a peripheral cue. The persuasion is either increased or decreased depending on the strength of the argument presented. Also, variables can affect the extent to which a person has confidence in, phenomena known as self-validation role. By linking missing parts together, this article connects the achievements of marketing research, information science and psychology in order to explore the role and impact of online advertising on consumers' behaviour. Also, the list of major factors that attract customers' and should be elaborated in each advertisement is result of this qualitative research study. 19 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2. METHOD The study is designed in qualitative research approach in which literature review method has been chosen. The overview of contemporary researches in the area of online advertising will be provided together with the analysis of psychological aspects of information processing. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1 Online Advertising: When, Why, How According to the psychologist Carl Jung, every individual has a primary mode of operation in each of the following four categories (Brook, 2000): 1. 2. 3. 4. our flow of energy how we take in information how we prefer to make decisions the basic day-to-day lifestyle we prefer. Within each of these categories, people tend to be either extraverted or introverted, sensing or intuitive, thinking or feeling, judging or perceiving. Advertisers should target their ads to appeal to people with specific personality traits. There are different types of creative advetising that can be used in order to attract consumers' attention. The most popular are: 1. banner ads - attract customers’ attention through color, graphics, and, sometimes, animation; 2. e-mail massages - companies use the e-mail model of advertising to cross-sell and up-sell their products, to try to acquire potential new customers, to persuade existing customers to buy again, to enhance customer loyalty, and to build long-lasting relationships with customers; 3. interstitial ads - ads appear automatically as customers move between the pages of a Web site, making customers wait for another page to load; 4. online directories - allows companies to gain visibility through online directories that help customers find them easily, using a search engine; 5. pay-per-click ads – since advertisers pay only when customers click their ads, the companies that display these ads benefit only when customers click them, and many companies depend on this form of advertising to generate revenues; 6. pop-up ads - appear in a separate window, therefore they interrupt the flow of customers’ current tasks. The only way to move ahead is to close the window in which the ad appears or click the window containing the site that caused the ad to appear; 7. pop-down banner ads - appear beneath the content on a Web page, on a banner at the bottom of the page, so customers have to look at and click these ads to get rid of them; 8. search engine optimization - seeks to promote a company’s Web site by increasing its visibility on search engine results pages; 9. sky scrapers - ads have the same function and properties as banner ads, but the rectangular boxes containing them have a vertical rather than a horizontal layout. These ads usually appear on the right side of a page and are linked to the advertiser’s Web site; 20 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 10. social networking - works best when it results from word-of-mouth or when a group exists for people who want to know what is happening with a company or product; 11. sponsorship - companies can sponsor a Web site or a certain section of a Web site where their ads appear. Companies must also begin using advertising techniques that evoke an emotional response from customers and that can be obtained through strategic planning and development of new marketing touchpoints. Behavioral advertising observes customers’ behavior as they move from one Web page or site to another (Sutherland&Sylvester, 2000). When following this advertising model, companies target ads to specific individuals, based on each customer’s past surfing behavior. Because behavioral advertising tracks customers’ interests, there is an increased likelihood that they will want the product or service advertised and be motivated to click an ad (Sutherland&Sylvester, 2000). With this method, different customers do not see the same ads on a Web page. There are several factors that help people to identify an ad that would bring them benefit, therefore these variable factors should be motivating enough to ensure people act on the information. Table 1 provides a summary of these advertising approaches and the factors that attract particular customer to particular ad. Table 1: Factors that attract customers to ad (Sutherland&Sylvester, 2000) TYPE OF AD BEHAVIORAL CONTENT LURE CONTEXTUAL APPROACH CREATIVE ATTRACTION 21 HIGH ATTRACTION Targets individual customers Based on context and customers’ needs Motivates customers to process information Appealing to customers’ emotions Moves customers to their next steps Makes customers want to know more Based on customers’ needs Culturally significant Blends in with surrounding content - MODERATE ATTRACTION - - Rarely used, but when used, is highly attractive Provides a different flavor Moves away from the mundane associations of advertising �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo HUMOR INFORMATION INTERACTIVITY GEOGRAPHY PRODUCT PLACEMENT SPECIAL OFFER TARGET AUDIENCE VISUAL LURE 22 - Based on context and customers’ needs Relevant to customers Motivates customers to process information An excess of information can add to customers’ cognitive load Gets customers’ attention Engages customers’ motor and cognitive skills Motivates customers to process information - Non-intrusive Subliminal information processing affects the psyche positively Shows the product in a reallife scenario Most persuasive Motivates customers to process information Based on customers’ needs Based on customers’ needs Culturally significant Blends in with surrounding content Makes a good first impression Customers subjectively perceive creativity Rarely used, but when used, gets customers’ attention Provides a different flavor Moves away from the mundane associations of advertising Customers subjectively perceive humor - Based on customers’ needs Culturally significant Blends in with surrounding content For a specific audience; ignores the rest - - - - �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo WELCOMING IMAGERY Gets customers’ attention Emotionally appealing Motivates customers to process information Warm imagery attracts customers’ attention Emotionally appealing Motivates customers to process information - It is evident that information processing, cognitive functioning and emotional responses have an important role in shaping consumers' responses. Therefore, psychological aspects of advertising need to be explored briefly. 3.2 Psychology of Online Advertising The physiological changes that accompany customers’ emotional responses to advertisements determine their next action, therefore the context in which an advertisement appears determines whether the ad constitutes an effective call to action. Depending on what advertisers want to convey particular advertisement type will be chosen. While the advertising approaches that typically result in moderate attraction do affect customers, their perception of them can be subjective (Schuman&Thorson, 1999). Effective communication must begin by obtaining the attention of the consumer. Then, the consumer must process the information carried in the advertisement. Such processing of information may be followed by an evaluation of the information, the source of the information, and ultimately the desirability of any actions suggested by the communication. This evaluation process may, in turn, give rise to the formation of attitudes, the development of intentions for future action, and, eventually, an action. Different characteristics of an advertisement have effects at different points in this hierarchy. Recent researches have proven that pop-up ads elicit orienting responses (OR) (Diao&Sundar, 2004). The psychological data also revealed the superior effect of pop-up windows over the commonly used banners with respect to ad recall. This is consistent with contemporary theories of OR and visual attention,which suggest that people tend to orient automatically toward those mediated messages that are novel and unexpected in the immediate visual domain (Diao&Sundar, 2004). The larger implication of this finding is that formal features of media messages can evoke involuntary attention, ORs in particular, not only in traditional media as has been previously demonstrated but also in the new Web environment. A recent study by Lang, Borse, et al. (2002) emphasizes the importance of considering content when it found that not only animated banners but also textual warnings about one’s immediate environment shown on a computer screen (e.g., There is someone behind you!) elicit ORs. As for the effects on memory, it was found that banner ads had higher ad recognition than pop-up ads, quite contrary to expectations derived from limited-capacity theory (Diao&Sundar, 2004). 23 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Pop-ups may not only orient users’ attention to a specific location on the screen and thus influence which stories will be processed and which will not (Johnson & Proctor, 2004), but they may also elicit frustration and therefore induce a shift in the locus of attention from a global towards a local type of processing (Clore, Gasper, & Garvin, 2001). The absence of new modalities from informational Websites or the mere presence of a text-heavy site may increase frustration, and a relatively low number of pop-ups can perhaps serve to provide a release. It is needed to consider previous experience with computers and Internet along with other media experiences as contributing factors that can provide a deeper understanding of this proposition. 3.3 Elaboration Likelihood Model The elaboration likelihood model is a theory that states that the amount and nature of thinking that a person does about a persuasive message is a very important determinant of the kind of persuasion that occurs. According to this model there are two routes to persuasion: peripheral route that does not require full cognitive processing and relies on a simple, low-effort decision strategy such as source attractiveness or message length, and the central route that involves carefully thinking about and thoroughly examining information relevant to a topic. The extent of elaboration determines which route will be taken. Motivational factors include (among others) the personal relevance of the message topic, accountability, and a person's need for cognition, their innate desire to enjoy thinking (Petty, Briñol & Tormala, 2000). Ability factors include the availability of cognitive resources or relevant knowledge needed to carefully scrutinize the arguments. The subject's general education level, as well as their education and experience with the topic at hand greatly affect their ability to be persuaded. Since the pop-up ads are not strong enough to catch consumers’ attention, advertisers develop pop-under ads that remain hidden until the user have not completed her/his task on the main website. Therefore, the pop-under ads remain visible only after user has completed her/his job and become able to process the advertisement. By using pop-under ads, advertisers hope to take advantage of the permanent staying power of centrally processed pop-up ads. 3.4 Practical Implications From a practical standpoint, the findings indicate that Web-site developers and marketing practitioners should not be discouraged by the potential of pop-up windows to cause annoyance and frustration, but carefully take advantage of this formal feature in catching online viewers’ attention and, hence, increasing brand awareness. Although awareness is generally considered by advertisers to be positively related to purchase intention, it might also motivate a negative behavioral response. At least one recent industry study has made the claim that online users actively penalize brands that use pop-ups and mistrust the companies that use and host pop-ups (Best, 2004). Another practical implication for advertising industry is to develop more innovative types of advertising. The lack of animation effect and the relatively inferior effect of banner ads on OR demonstrate the necessity for exploring more-creative executional cues to increase advertising effectiveness accruing from novelty effects. The pop-under ads should be concidered in order to fill in the gap of peripherally processed pop-up ads, hence the purpose of the elaboration likelihood model cannot be neglected. 24 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4. CONCLUSION In this study, the overview of contemporary online advertising techniques is provided together with users’ psychological reaction towards them. It is concluded that cognitive aspects of information processing as well as elaboration likelihood model need to be taken into account when creating online advertisements, especially banners and pop-up ads. These results provide encouragement to develop and evaluate pop-under ads, as one of the effective advertising tools. REFERENCES Best, J. (2004). Pop-ups “commercial suicide” for firms. Retrieved April 20, 2012, from http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/workspace-it/2004/02/25/pop-ups-commercial-suicide-for-firms40145254/?s_cid=938 Brooke, R. (2000). Pathways into the Jungian World: Phenomenology and Analytical Psychology. New York: Routledge. Clore, G. L., Gasper, K., & Garvin, E. (2001). Affect as information. In J. P. Forgas, (Ed.), Handbook of Affect and Social Cognition (pp. 121-144). Mahwah, NJ.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Diao, F., Sundar, S.S. (2004). Orienting Response and Memory for Advertisements: Exploring Effects of Pop-Up Window and Animation. Communication Research, 31(5), 537-567. Johnson, A., & Proctor, R. W. (2004). Attention: Theory and Practice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Lang, A., Borse, J., Wise, K., & David, P. (2002). Captured by the World Wide Web: Orienting to structural and content features of computer-presented information. Communication Research, 29, 215-245. Petty, R. E., Briñol, P., & Tormala, Z. L. (2002). Thought Confidence as a Determinant of Persuasion: The Self-validation Hypothesis. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 82, 722741. Schumann, D.W., & Thprson, E. (1999). Advertising and the World Wide Web. Philadelphia, PA: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Sutherland, M., & Sylvester, A.K. (2000). Advertising and the Mind of the Consumer: What Works, What Doesn’t, and Why. Sydney, Australia: Allen & Unwin. 25 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1359 Title A name given to the resource Persuade to Buy: Implications for Online Advertising Author Author Alma , Jeftić Abstract A summary of the resource. The aim of this article is to explore the development of a variety of online advertising tools and the implications that the characteristics of these tools have on their effectiveness, as well as to discover how important are the amount and nature of cognitive processing that a person does about a persuasive message in order to determine the kind of persuasion that occurs. Even though advertisements are a necessary and important component of the Internet, most users are merely concerned with the quality of online experience and do not appreciate pop-up ads. However, the majority of previous researches in the area of online advertising lack in application of psychological theories of information processing and attitude change. This article seeks to explore the connection between cognitive processing and consumers' online experience as well as behaviour change in order to provide the most important factors that attract customers. The study is designed in qualitative research approach in which literature review method has been chosen. The overview of contemporary researches in the area of online advertising will be provided together with the analysis of psychological aspects of information processing. Moreover, this study aims to obtain deeper understanding of elaboration likelihood model with the special emphasize on two routes an individual will take in a persuasive situation and its application to online advertisements. It is concluded that cognitive aspects of information processing as well as elaboration likelihood model need to be taken into account when creating online advertisements, especially banners and pop-up ads. Also, the list of major factors that attract customers' and should be elaborated in each advertisement is result of this qualitative research study. Keywords: online advertising; persuasion; cognitive processing; banners; pop-up ads; elaboration likelihood model; consumer behaviour; perceived intrusiveness. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/149f3053fb38f51a82f287b86b32152e.pdf 944c99f43251ff1a420828d09132f028 PDF Text Text Phenotypic and Genetic Parameters of Some Production Traits of Holstein Friesian Cows Raised at the State Farm of Koçaş Murat Durnalı Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Ankara/Turkey muratdurnali@hotmail.com Ayhan Öztürk Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Selcuk University, 42075, Konya / Turkey yhan@selcuk.edu.tr Abstract: In this researh, six reproductive and three milk yield traits were determined and genetic and phenotypic parameters were estimated for these nine traits in the Holstein Friesian cows reared at the State Farm of Koçaş in Aksaray (Turkey). The least squares means of fırst service age (FSA), fırst calving age (FCA), calving interval (CI), number of insemination per conception (NIPC), gestation length (GL), service period (SP), lactation milk yield (LMY) , lactation length (LL), and dry period (DP) were 560.80±3.07 days, 855.43±2.66 days, 382.30±6.42 days, 1.76±0.06, 285.05±1.66 days, 110.57±6.28, 6937.63±1 09.46 kg, 320.51±3.29 days, 69.51±3.08 days and respectively. Heritabilities of these traits were 0.55±0.151, 0.69±0.162, 0.06±0.086, 0.04±0.062, 0.11±0.085, 0.21±0.000, 0.20±0.11, 0.078±0.007, and 0.34±0.000, respectively. The repeatibilities of CI, LPC, GL, SP, LMY, LL, and DP were 0.12, 0.042, 0.32, 0.44, 0.37, 0.065, and 0.42, respectively. The year had a significant effect on the FSA, CI, SP, and LMY at (p<O.OI) levels. lt was shown that lactation number had a significant effect on NIPC, LMY, and DP, the sex of calf had a significant effect on GL, the calving season had a significant effect on LMY, and DP at (p<0.01) levels. Also, linear regressions of LMY to LL, SP to LL, and LL to LMY statistically significant. Keywords: Holstein Friesian, reproductivity, milk yield, heritability, repeatability Introduction Although the proportion of meat and milk production is high, the amount of yield per animal in Turkish breeds is low. Average milk yield obtained from per cattle is 2758 kg (Anonymous, 2008). Within imported cattle breeds, highest number is Holstein Friesian, and its average milk yield is up to 5000 kg. The objective of this study was to determine the milk and reproductive performances of Holstein Friesian cows reared at the Koçaş State farm in Aksaray. Also, phenotypic and genetic parameters for examined characteristics were calculated. Material and Method Material This study was carried out by using Holstein-Friesian cattle reared at the Koçaş state farm in the middle Anatolia region in Turkey. In this region, summers are hot and dry, winters are cold. The data used in this study were collected from Holstein Friesian cattle from records maintained between the 1995 and 2005. Method Reproductive performance was estimated by using the following animal model as an example first service age and the mathematical model for first calving age, number of insemination per conception, calving interval, service period and gestation length were estimated by adding or get out from this model according to the effective factors: 265 �Yij = µ + ai + eij Yij = is first service age i. year, j. cow µ = mean ai = effect of year (a1: 1996, a2: 1997,…….. a10: 2005) eij = random residual effect Lactation milk yield was calculated according to the following mathematical model; Yijkl = µ + ai + bj + ck + bxijk + eijkl Yijkl = is lactation milk yield of cow in i. year, j. calf sex and k. season µ = mean ai = effect of year (a1: 1996, a2: 1997,…….. a10: 2005) bj = effect of parity (b1: 2, b2: 3,……..b8: 9) ck =effect of season (k1: September, October, November, k2: December, January, February, k3: March, April, May, k4: June, July, August) bxijk=partial regression coefficient to parity of lactation milk yield eijkl = random residual effect Season was classified as first group (September, October, November), second group (December, January, February), third group (March, April, May) and fourth group (June, July, August). Calf sex was classified as 1 (male) and 2 (female). To estimate of genetic parameters, Mixed models which were take into account environmental factors effect on yields, were based. Data were analyzed both Mixed Model Least Squares and Maximum Likelihood (LSMLMW) in the computer program of Harvey (1990) and by Multiple Trait Derivative Free Restricted Maximum Likelihood (MTDFREML) according to (Boldman et al., 1995) for all traits. To ensure global convergence, the algorithm by Boldman et al., (1995) was restarted with estimates until the log likelihood did not change at the fourth decimal. Duncan multiple comparison test (Duzgüneş, 1993) was used to test the differences between factors. Variance structure of the model the fallowing matrix was used:  a   0 E   =    e   0  σ a2 a  V   =  0 e   0  0 Iσ p2 e 0 0   0  Inσ e2  σ a2 = additive genetic variance, 2 σ pe = Permanent environmental variance and σ e2 = The random residual effect associated with each observation. To estimate heritability (h2) and repeatability (r) the following equation was used: 2 2 2 2 h 2 = σ a /(σ a + σ pe + σ e ) 2 r = σ a2 + σ pe /(σ a2 + σ 2pe + σ e2 ) For each feature according to the model that considered the sire, dam and cows for breeding values were calculated. Breeding values were estimated with MTDFREML program (El-Arian et al., 2003; Khattab et al., 2003). The mixed model equations (MME) for the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of estimablefunctions of b and for the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) of a and p in matrix notation was as follows: X 'X Z'X W 'Z X 'Z Z ' Z + A−1α1 Z 'W W 'Z W 'W + Iα 2 2 Where X 'W 2 α1 = σ e / σ a ) b X'y ) a = Z'y p W'y 2 and α 2 = σ e / σ2 p 266 �Results and Recommendations Reproductive Traits First Service Age (FSA): The least square means of first service age belong to a total of 560 animals were 560.80 ± 3.07 days. The effect of Year was only statistically significant on first service age (P<0.01). The heritability of FSA was estimated as 0.55. First Calving Age (FCA): The least square means of first calving age belong to a total of 559 animals were estimated as 855.43 ± 2.66 days. The effect of Linear Regression on FSA of FCA was statistically significant (P<0.01). The heritability of FCA was estimated as 0.69 ± 0.162. Calving Interval (CI): Estimated CI value from a total of 1090 Holstein Friesian cows was 382.30 ± 6.42 days. The effect of year on CI was statistically significant (P<0.01). The heritability and repeatability values for CI were 0.06 and 0.12, respectively. Number of Insemination Per Conception (NIPC): The least square means of NIPC belong to a total of 1148 data were estimated as 1.76 ± 0.06. The effect of year and parity on NIPC was statistically significant (P<0.01). The heritability and repeatability values of NIPC were estimated as 0.04 ± 0.062 and 0.042, respectively. Gestation Length (GL): Gestation period was calculated from 900 data. The least square means of GL were estimated as 285.05 ± 1.66 days. The effect of age on GL was statistically significant (P<0.01). The heritability and repeatability values of GL were estimated as 0.11 ± 0.085 and 0.032, respectively. Service Period (SP): The least square means of SP belong to a total of 464 animals were estimated as 110.57 ± 6.28 days. The effect of Linear Regression on SP of LMY was statistically significant (P<0.01). The effect of linear regression of year, season, parity and lactation length was not significant. The heritability and repeatability values were estimated as 0.21 ± 0.00 and 0.44, respectively. Reproductive Traits Lactation Milk Yield (LMY): The least square means of LMY belong to a total of 1269 lactation were determined as 6937.63 ± 109.46 kg. The effect of year, season, parity and lactation length on LMY was statistically significant (P<0.01). The heritability and repeatability values were estimated as 0.20 ± 0.11 and 0.37, respectively. Lactation Length (LL): The least square means of LL belong to a total of 1269 lactation were determined as 320.51 ± 3.29 days. The effect of Linear Regression on LMY of LL and Parity was statistically significant (P<0.01). The effect of year, sex and season was not significant. The heritability and repeatability values were estimated as 0.07 ± 0.007 and 0.65, respectively. Dry Period (DP): The least square means of LMY belong to a total of 363 data were determined as 69.51 ± 3.03 days. The effect of season (P<0.05), parity (P<0.01) on DP was statistically significant. The heritability and repeatability values were estimated as 0.34 ± 0.00 and 0.42, respectively. In this study, calculated phenotypic parameters of reproductive and milk yield traits to the HolsteinFriesian cattle reared at the state farm of Koçaş when compared with the other Friesian cattle herds in Turkey was satisfactory. Examined phenotypic parameters belong to reproductive and milk yield characteristics in herd have been determined as 560.80 ± 3.07 days, 855.43 ± 2.66 days, 382.30 ± 6.42 days, 1.76 ± 0.06, 285.05 ± 1.66 days, 110.57 ± 6.28 days, 6937.63 ± 109.46 kg, 320.51 ± 3.29 days and 69.51 ± 3.03 days for FSA, FCA, CI, NIPC, GL, SP, LMY, LL and DP, respectively. Determined FSA value in herd in this study, 43 days is more than from 488-518 days being ideal value for FSA. Ideal value for first calving age is 793 days and calculated value for this study is more than 42 days from the ideal value. Obtained from the herd for calving interval value is close to ideal values. The Number of Insemination Per Conception values considered as normal values from 1.5 showed partial deviation. In practice the values calculated for the service period is acceptable, but 25 days are more than from being 85 days ideal value. Calculated LMY value is over the average in Turkey too. This value shows that closer to the desired level. Obtained value for the LS is 320 days. This value has shown that extended to 15 days from 305 days ideal lactation length. The values established for the Dry Period is ideal. In other words, to obtain the desired yields from the Holstein-Friesian cows, It is understood that necessary to provide of the environmental conditions in the farms like conditions Koçaş farm. In brief, with reduction of FSA both FSA and FCA can approached to the ideal values. If desired value for NIPC is reached, CI and SP can be reach ideally. This two obvious examples are show interaction with each other to the yields. 267 �Conclusion As a result, the milk and reproductive characteristics of the Holstein-Friesian cows reared at the state farm of Koçaş was found higher over the Turkey’s Holstein-Friesian’s average and these values reach the ideal Holstein-Friesian’s characteristics. In other words, the business environment in terms of providing adequate infrastructure have the capacity to uncover genetics of the herd, thus allowing yield characteristics have to be a positive influence. Opinion is formed that with additional environmental regulation will can reach the desired yield level. Acknowledgments This research was supported by a research project from the Coordinatory of Scientific Research Projects of Selcuk University, Turkey. We are thankful to KOÇAŞ State Farm for providing data References Anonymous, 2008. Türkiye Đstatistik Kurumu. Access Date: 08.02.2008, www.tuik.gov.tr Boldman, K. G., Kriese, L. A., Van Vleck, L. D., Van Tassell, C. P. & Kachman, S. D. 1995. A Manual For use of MTDFREML. A Set of Programs to Obtain Estimates of Variances and Covariances (Draft). U. S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, pp:14. Düzgüneş, O., 1993. Đstatistik Metodları (Statistical Methods). Ank. Üniv. Zir. Fak. Yay: 1291, Notebook: 369, Ankara. El-Arian, M. N., H. G. El-Awady & A. S. Khattab, 2003. Genetic analysis for some productive traits of Holstein Friesian cows in Egypt through MTDFREML program. Egyptian J. Anim. Prod., (in Pres). Harvey, W.R. 1990. Users guide for LSMLMW PC-1 Version mixed model least squares and maximum likelihood computer program. Ohio State Uni. Colombus, Mimco. Khattab, A. S., H. G. El-Awady & M. N. El-Arian, 2003. Genetic analysis of some performance traits using an animal model in a herd of Egyptian buffaloes. Egyptian J. Anim. Prod. (in Press). 268 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 439 Title A name given to the resource Phenotypic and Genetic Parameters of Some Production Traits of Holstein Friesian Cows Raised at the State Farm of Koças Author Author Durnalı, Murat Öztürk, Ayhan Abstract A summary of the resource. In this researh, six reproductive and three milk yield traits were determined and genetic and phenotypic parameters were estimated for these nine traits in the Holstein Friesian cows reared at the State Farm of Koças in Aksaray (Turkey). The least squares means of fırst service age (FSA), fırst calving age (FCA), calving interval (CI), number of insemination per conception (NIPC), gestation length (GL), service period (SP), lactation milk yield (LMY) , lactation length (LL), and dry period (DP) were 560.80±3.07 days, 855.43±2.66 days, 382.30±6.42 days, 1.76±0.06, 285.05±1.66 days, 110.57±6.28, 6937.63±1 09.46 kg, 320.51±3.29 days, 69.51±3.08 days and respectively. Heritabilities of these traits were 0.55±0.151, 0.69±0.162, 0.06±0.086, 0.04±0.062, 0.11±0.085, 0.21±0.000, 0.20±0.11, 0.078±0.007, and 0.34±0.000, respectively. The repeatibilities of CI, LPC, GL, SP, LMY, LL, and DP were 0.12, 0.042, 0.32, 0.44, 0.37, 0.065, and 0.42, respectively. The year had a significant effect on the FSA, CI, SP, and LMY at (p<O.OI) levels. lt was shown that lactation number had a significant effect on NIPC, LMY, and DP, the sex of calf had a significant effect on GL, the calving season had a significant effect on LMY, and DP at (p<0.01) levels. Also, linear regressions of LMY to LL, SP to LL, and LL to LMY statistically significant. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2010-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f34c886f482c7a8c3ba132e5172a6800.docx a8d97982c612d4dcbcbd289ae49543ee https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f7813dc10086e3068a2a893d3a135b35.pdf e92b1424592384378538cd2c2b520fef PDF Text Text Phrases Regarding Animals in Greek And Serbian Language Ivana Milojevic University of Belgrade/ Belgrade, Serbia Key words: phrases, greek and serbian language, cultural specificity ABSTRACT This paper deals with comparative analysis of the phrases in Greek and Serbian language, which have as their object an animal. It also analyses idioms in Greek language from both, semantic and cultural aspect, trying to find their counterparts in Serbian language and in that way confirm the exceptional closeness of two cultures, on the other hand, there have been found the expressions that have no equivalents in Serbian language due to their cultural specificity. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1791 Title A name given to the resource Phrases Regarding Animals in Greek And Serbian Language Author Author MILOJEVIC, Ivana Abstract A summary of the resource. Key words: phrases, greek and serbian language, cultural specificity ABSTRACT This paper deals with comparative analysis of the phrases in Greek and Serbian language, which have as their object an animal. It also analyses idioms in Greek language from both, semantic and cultural aspect, trying to find their counterparts in Serbian language and in that way confirm the exceptional closeness of two cultures, on the other hand, there have been found the expressions that have no equivalents in Serbian language due to their cultural specificity. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available IBU Publishing Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-03 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed