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Sustainable Consumer Behaviour in the UK
-In general and in relation to outdoor equipment and vehicle accessoriesAjla Ćosić1,Hana Ćosić2
International Burch University, Sarajevo,Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Scuola Superiore Sant’ Anna, Pisa, Italy
Emails: ajlacosic@gmail.com, hana.cosic@gmail.com
Abstract
Sustainability is becoming an important factor to consider while buying different products such
as outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories. Also there is a growing awareness that business
side should take an important role in promotion of sustainable consumer behaviour.
This paper investigates sustainable consumer behaviour in general and in relation to outdoor
equipment and vehicle accessories in the UK. It explores sustainable consumer behaviour through
50 phone interviews with retailers in outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories over the UK.
The findings reveal there is a large awareness on sustainability issues in the investigated
segments. Also there is willingness to pay more up to 20 % more for products with sustainability
features in the outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories. Moreover projections on development
of sustainable consumer behaviour are very positive. Business plans for more sustainable
consumption include an increase in number of products with sustainability features and following
manufacturers.
The paper concludes with some reflections on how sustainable consumption behaviour should be
promoted from the business side and gives recommendations for the businesses in the
investigated segments.
Keywords: sustainable consumer behaviour; the UK; outdoor equipment; vehicle accessories;
interviews.
1.INTRODUCTION
Every day, sustainable consumption and sustainable production are becoming more and more
important and at the same time they are helping us to move toward sustainable development.
Over the years, majority of people have realized that their purchasing behaviour had a direct
impact on the global warming, climate change and other ecological problems Michel et al (2001).
Maybe this is one of the reasons why people are becoming more and more aware about
sustainable consumption, and its positive impact on the whole society. In our opinion consumers
are the main drivers that will help us to move towards more sustainable production and
consumption. This is one of the reasons why we chose to do a research on the sustainable
consumer behaviour in the UK because we think that sustainable development can help us to
improve the quality of life of present and future generations.
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The purpose of this paper is to determine sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK in general
and in relation to outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories. We think sustainable consumer
behaviour is of extreme importance for the future as consumers are drive force of consumption.
In this paper we will try to answer through secondary and primary data:
what is level of environmental awareness in the UK
where is the UK among other countries in sustainable consumer behaviour
how important is sustainability in consumer’s purchasing decision making in general and
in the outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories segment
analyze sustainability as a trend few years ago and now
check what are plans from business perspective in terms of sustainability
1.1.What is sustainability?
Sustainability plays an important role in our every day life. Hundred years ago people did not
know much about sustainability, but today sustainability is a wide ranging term that can be
applied to every segment of our life.
The concept of sustainability was first discussed in 1983 in corporate agenda via the UN
Commission on Environment and Development, where the term of sustainable development was
defined as development that “meets the needs of the present without compromising ability of
future to meet their own needs” (United Nations, 1987). Today they are many discussions and
debates about sustainability, and sustainable development describing various approaches and
solutions, but when it comes to implementation rare are those who follow those sustainable rules
and principles. Whether we want to accept or not, sustainability is global issue that should
concern all of us, and that we should work together towards achieving global solution.
Beside the widely accepted definition there are also three types of sustainability and they are:
social, economic and environmental as stated (United Nations General Assembly, 2005).
Social- Social sustainability is related to retention of social capital. This social capital
according to many scholars is called moral capital. To have social sustainability achieved it is
required to share values and provide equal rights as well as to promote cultural and religious
interactions by the society (Wiley, 2009).
Economic- One of the most accepted views on economic sustainability is maintaining the
level of capital which can be easily explained by the Hick’s definition of income where the
amount of income that person can consume and be as well off at the end of the period
(Burgess,2003).
Environmental- Environmental sustainability includes natural capital such as water,
minerals, ecosystems which are often converted to economic capital (Nordhaus, 1994).
In this paper environmentally friendly products mean a wide range of different sustainability
features incorporated not just environmentally friendly features. We have done this as many
studies that are investigating sustainable consumer behaviour name products that have
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incorporated sustainability features environmentally friendly products. In our paper as well,
environment is considered as a wide concept including all three perspectives on sustainability.
1.2.What is sustainable consumption?
Today there are many signs that consumption issues are becoming of central concern for
business. Currently we are living in an era in which global consumption patterns are
unsustainable. In order to avoid this and bring global consumption to a sustainable level many
changes are required both from consumers and producers. Changes are required but not just in
technology, it will also be required in consumer lifestyles, including ways in which consumers
choose and use products and services. This is a big challenge, but we think that business should
take a leading role and try to move toward more sustainable levels and patterns of consumption.
One of the propositions how this could be done is that business should use their current business
processes such as innovation, communication and marketing and by working together with
consumers, governments and stakeholders they can define and achieve more sustainable lifestyle
(WBCSD, 1997).
To meet the challenges of sustainable development, business should help consumers to choose
and use their goods and services sustainably. In order to do so, business should create sustainable
value for their consumers offering them products and services that will meet their functional and
emotional needs but at the same time respecting environmental limits and common values
(WBCSD, 1997).
When global drivers of consumption come to the role, business should consider rapid global
population growth, because world population is projected to reach 9 billion by 2050 (UNDP,
2008).
1.3.Why there is a need for sustainable consumer behaviour?
Recent studies show that we are already exceeding the Earth’s ability to support our lifestyles,
and have been doing so for approximately twenty years (WWF, 2006).
Also there are predictions that the supply of energy and material resources needed for industrial
growth, such as natural resource consumption is expected to rise to 170% of the Earth’s biocapacity by 2040 (WWF, 2006). So this is a big challenge and task for us, it can be solved only if
we see the importance of sustainable consumption.
The projections mentioned previously should help us to answer the question: Why do we need
sustainable consumption?
However it is good to know that consumer’s attitudes and behaviours are changing over the last
two decades. Consumers are increasingly concerned about environmental, social and economic
issues, and increasingly willing to act on those concerns. According to recent studies 96% of
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Europeans say that protecting the environment is important for them personally. Two-thirds of
this group say that it is “very important” (European Commission, 2008). In the UK, 18 % of
consumers are willing, able and motivated to take action on environmental issues.
The role of consumers and their willingness to change is a key driver in this process.
2.LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1.Available surveys and studies in the UK- National geographic surveys
For our study it is important to see how the UK is ranked in worldwide studies and surveys on
sustainable consumer behaviour. One of these studies is Greendex.
National Geographic conducted Greendex survey in January 2009. This survey is a world wide
tracking survey on consumer choice and the environment. One of the findings of this survey is
that consumers are paying more attention to sustainability as their knowledge improves.
This survey tracks behaviour in 65 areas related to four major categories housing, transportation,
food and consumer goods (Greendex, 2009).
When it comes to overall results for the 14 countries included in this survey in 2008, overall
results showed there is an increase in environmentally friendly consumer behaviour in 2009.
This tells us there is an upward trend in sustainable consumer behaviour. Overall green index for
Great Britain was a slight increase from 2008 to 2009 from 48.2 to 49.4 points, what ranked it at
the 13th place out of 17.
According to this survey (Greendex, 2009) there are two main reasons for the improvements of
results. These are cost considerations and environmental concerns.
2.2.DEFRA survey from 2007
DEFRA is the Department for Environment Food and rural Affairs in England and it released a
Survey of Public Attitudes and Behaviours in England in 2007. This study covers what customers
think and how they behave in relation to different environmental issues. It covers for each
different section attitudes, behaviours and barriers. In this paper we will summarize findings
(DEFRA, 2007) from three different sections that are relevant to our topic. These will be attitudes
and knowledge in relation to the environment, transport and eco-friendly purchasing.
In each section of this survey respondents were asked on their attitudes towards eco-friendly
purchasing.
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Results showed that 52 % of respondents agreed or tended to agree that they ‘try not to buy
products from a company whose ethics they disagree with’. Also 45 % of respondents agreed
they would be prepared to pay more for environmentally friendly products’, but at the same time
over a quarter disagreed. This shows there is a mix of consumers who would be willing to pay
more and those who would not.
To test their attitudes respondents were then asked on their behaviours in eco-friendly
purchasing.
We think these results are expected as there in the UK Fair trade development is helped by
government programme for sustainable development.
This study also asked on barriers that stopped people from purchasing environment friendly
products and the first barrier was price. 47 % of respondents said these products are too
expensive. The second barrier was lack of availability with less than 12 % of respondents
answering. The third barrier was a lack of labelling.
Again we think that attitude and behaviour gap repeated as larger proportion of respondents said
that it would pay and then minority said it would not pay.
3.METHODOLOGY
As our task is to investigate and try to determine sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK in
general and in relation to the outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories segment, we can say that
we will use both secondary and primary data.
Secondary data will be used to answer questions more in general about sustainable consumer
behaviour in the UK. Different studies, books, journal articles and legislature documents will be
used (e.g. OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and WBCSD
(World Business Council on Sustainable Development)).
We decided to collect data in three different types of stores as we think they are in a close
relationship. We collected data through phone interviews in the outdoor equipment (Patagonia’s
stores), vehicle accessories (Thule’ stores) and car stores (Toyota’s, Volvo’s and BMW’s).
We think that all the three selected type of stores will give us more knowledge about sustainable
consumer behaviour in the outdoor equipment and car and vehicle accessories segment as they
are related. For example customers need vehicles to transport their outdoor equipment and they
will use vehicle accessories (for example Thule’s) such as bike carriers or ski carriers. Also they
need outdoor equipment such as Patagonia’s products to perform outdoor activities. We think that
we can get better knowledge if we connect all these three and then draw conclusions.
In addition to phone interviews with retailers/managers we did phone interviews with experts on
sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK that will help us to deepen our knowledge and
understanding on sustainability and sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK.
As we intend to measure consumer behaviour, through open ended questions we can find out a lot
about this from our respondents. To achieve content validity we did literature searches on this
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topic and pretested open ended questions. Literature searches helped us to have adequate
coverage of our topic and pretested open ended questions helped us to get more valid questions.
As this paper investigated sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK in the outdoor equipment
and cars and vehicle accessories segment the same set of questions were used in the both
segments to get consistent results. Also to improve reliability, a test retest method was used. The
same questions we asked to the same group of respondents (retailers/experts) at different points
in time. With multiple sources reliability of this paper will be improved.
3.1.Strengths and weaknesses
Given that many discussion papers and studies showed misleading sustainable consumer
behaviour through consumer surveys/interviews where consumers tend to show ‘right behaviour’
and not the real, using phone interviews with retailers can be considered as a strength.
We think that phone interviews with retailers/mangers will answer us through their experience
how important is sustainability for customers, are they willing to pay more, how much more but
at the same time check through their experience trend, what sustainability feature are customers
interested in and similar. Also as this is an opportunity to listen to the business side we can find
out about their plans when it comes to sustainability in the next years.
The main weakness of this method is that we are investigating consumer behaviour indirectly by
not asking consumers. We will lose opportunity to learn directly from consumers about
sustainable consumption in the UK. Moreover we will lose opportunity to learn more about the
main barriers for sustainable purchasing behaviour.
All in all, we think that from phone interviews with retailers/managers and experts in this field
combined with secondary data, we can learn a lot about sustainable consumer behaviour in the
UK. Also we think that our findings can be useful for the business side (producers and
distributors) especially in the investigated segments of outdoor equipment, cars and vehicle
accessories.
We think that our research is exploratory and unique because as far as we know, no similar study
that investigates sustainable consumer behaviour in relation to outdoor equipment and car and
vehicle accessories in the UK has ever been done before.
3.2.Sampling procedure and data collection
The study was conducted between 6 and 11 May 2010 in the UK. The population for this study is
defined as all retailers/managers of Patagonia’s, Thule’s, Volvo’s, Toyota’s and BMW’s dealer
stores in the UK. Over 260 of these retailers in the outdoor equipment and car and vehicle
accessories were randomly selected in the UK. They were interviewed via phone.
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During randomization, it was considered to cover larger geographical area in the UK.
From 260 called retailers only 50 of them replied. Initial plan was to conduct interviews with
100 retailers/managers but response rate was unexpectedly low.
Our assumption for this low response rate is lack of knowledge and fear that it will not be done as
it should.
From 260 phoned interviewees 170 were selected in the Patagonia’s dealer stores, 30 in the
Thule’s dealer stores, and 60 in the different car dealers’ stores. In total 50 interviewees were
conducted which gives 20 % response rate. This will decrease our sample representativeness of
population in the selected segments.
We need to mention that the lowest response rate was in vehicle accessories stores in the Thule’s
dealer stores. Out of 30 only 3 replied and it was only 10 % response rate. Our assumption is that
sustainability is not developed in this segment and that by conducting these interviews we had a
feeling that retailers/managers were even a bit afraid to talk about sustainability. In addition to
this, probably they lack of products that have sustainability features incorporated.
From these 50 who responded, 37 were with the selected retailers/managers in the Patagonia’s
dealer stores, 3 were with the Thule’s and 10 were with different car dealers.
This research is of a qualitative type. However we will show graphs with statistics to get better
understanding and quality of analysed data. To get more reliable results interviewers were asked
the same questions. To increase reliability verbatim answers on all questions are available in the
Appendix.
Our phone interviews contained 6 questions for the selected retailers/managers.
4.RESULTS
4.1.Summary of main findings
Sustainable consumer behaviour in the outdoor equipment and car and vehicle accessories in the
UK
in the both segments over two thirds of respondents said sustainability is either fairly or very
important for customers
in the car and vehicle accessories ‘very important’ was the most frequent answer with slightly
less than half of respondents, while in outdoor equipment ‘fairly important’ was the most
frequent answer with slim majority of respondents
We can say that when combined these segments, sustainability is important for customers while
purchasing goods in the selected segments.
in the outdoor segment around 70 % of respondents said that customers are willing to pay more
for sustainability features, comparing to 85 % of respondents in the car and vehicle accessories
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A customer buying products in these segments is willing to pay more for sustainable features.
the most frequent willingness to pay is up to 5 % more in the outdoor segment and maximum
willingness to pay is 20 % more
in the car and vehicle accessories maximum willingness to pay is 10 % more and the most
frequent answer was that is hard to quantify how much customers are willing to pay more
When combining these two, we can say customers are willing to pay more but with differences in
the maximum willingness to pay, probably due to differences in the base price.
slightly over 50 % of respondents said market for sustainable products or sustainable consumer
behaviour developed gradually or in an upward trend direction over the last few years in the
outdoor segment, comparing to one third of respondents who said it did not change-‘fairly steady’
in the car and vehicle accessories segment 38 % respondents said it developed well over the last
few years, while one third said it did not change
When comparing these two we can assume that the outdoor equipment market for sustainable
products is more developed.
in prediction of development for this market or sustainable consumer behaviour in the outdoor
equipment segment slightly less than 40 % of respondents think it will be an upward trend
In the car and vehicle accessories almost two thirds see it as an upward trend
This difference is probably due to lower development in the past years in the car and vehicle
accessories segment. When we combine result, we can say that respondents see it as an upward
trend. It is important to mention that mostly price is a barrier for predictions for non development
or a very slow development of this market.
Vast majority of respondents in the both segments said customers are interested in sustainability
features and they ask about these.
In the outdoor equipment the most frequent sustainability feature is recycling. Other two
important features are longevity and whether product is organic.
Fuel efficiency and lower emission are the most frequent features that customers are interested in
the car and vehicle accessories segment.
When combining results for sustainability features we can say they are pretty different. Probably
this is because of different products offered. But basically for the outdoor equipment customers
are interested in recycling, organic and longevity, while in the car and vehicle accessories
customers are interested in fuel efficiency (probably due to costs) and lower emission.
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Plans from the business side for the future when it comes to sustainability in the outdoor
equipment segment were again in recycling direction with around 40 % of respondents. Either to
increase more products made from recyclable materials or to improve recycling in their business
activities. Other two most frequent plans were for energy saving, probably cost driven and the
third group of these plans are related to customer-manufacturer actions. This is an important
piece of information for manufacturers.
In the car and vehicle accessories segment a third of respondents said their plans are
manufacturer driven. Other third said to increase number of hybrid and fuel efficient cars. We
think that in the both segments when combined there is an important message for producers that
managers want to increase their offers of environmentally friendly products. Moreover their plans
are also manufacturer driven, so it is up to manufacturers to increase their offers of products with
sustainability features.
4.2.Comparison of our study results to other study results
Our first question was testing customers’ attitudes towards sustainability. Our study results were
positive as in the outdoor equipment around two thirds of respondents said that for customers
sustainability is either fairly or very important. Similar results were also in the vehicle accessories
and car segment where around two thirds of respondents said that sustainability is either very or
fairly important for customers. Other studies found similar results when testing attitudes of
customers. A study done by PricewaterhouseCoopers (2008) found that over 80 % of 4 thousand
customers surveyed, demonstrated awareness and concerns about sustainability issues.
Moreover in a study done by DEFRA (2008) where consumers were asked on their attitudes on
eco-friendly purchasing, 52 % strongly agreed or tended to agree that they “try not to buy
products from a company whose ethics they disagree with”. We think our results even though
with much smaller sample are similar with other study results and it shows its larger reliance.
When comparing our results for the second question on willingness to pay for more
environmentally friendly products again we have similar results as other studies. In our study we
found that over two thirds of customers in the both segments are willing to pay more for
environmentally friendly products.
There are similar results in a study done by DEFRA (2008) where 45 % of respondents, strongly
agreed or tended to agree that they ‘would be prepared to pay more for environmentally friendly
products’.
In this study (DEFRA, 2008) over a quarter of respondents disagreed that are not ready to pay
more. In our study results are similar as one third of customers are not willing to pay more for
environmentally friendly products.
As it is important to have an estimate on percentage that customers are willing to pay we will see
also check other study results. In the PwC study (2008) top six UK grocery’s products were
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examined and it was found that price premium was over 40 % for some environmentally friendly
products.
In our study we found that maximum willingness to pay for environmentally friendly products is
20 % price premium in the outdoor segment, but it is important to say that this was only 10 % of
respondents. On the other hand in the car and vehicle accessories segment maximum price
premium is 10 %. The most frequent price premium is 5 % in the both segments.
Moreover PwC study (2008) found that willingness to pay a social or environmental premium on
everyday items was closer to c.20 %. This is similar to our results that showed a premium of 20
% for the outdoor segment and a lower premium of 10 % for the car and vehicle accessories
segment as prices are larger.
Also one more study showed similar results on customer willingness to pay more for
environmentally friendly products. In the EU Commission study (EU attitudes, 2008) results
showed that customers would pay more for environmentally friendly products: 7 in 10 said they
would be willing to pay up to 20 % more. Our findings about customer willingness to pay more
for environmentally friendly products also showed that around 70 % of customers are willing to
pay more to 20 % more.
In our third study question retailers/managers were asked about development of this market for
sustainable products or in more general sustainable consumer behaviour over the last few years.
Over 50 % of our respondents in the outdoor equipment said it developed gradually or it is an
upward trend. In the car and vehicle accessories segment around 40 % said it is an upward trend.
For our study it is important to mention that growth is present in Fairtrade and organic clothing
purchase in the UK. There is a growth from 2005 to 2008 from 7 % of shoppers to 17 % in 2008
(PwC, 2008).
Also we asked our respondents on development’s projection of market for environmentally
friendly products. Results showed that over half of respondents said they think it will be an
upward trend or a gradually increase in the outdoor equipment. Moreover in the car and vehicle
accessories segment there are even more positive projections. More than a half of respondents see
an upward trend in the market for sustainable products.
We think these results could be taken seriously as results of a study (EUbarometer, 2008) showed
that consumers clearly show that want to buy more sustainable products in the future. In this
study 58 % said they want to buy more environmentally friendly products.
The most frequent sustainability feature that customers are interested in the outdoor equipment
segment was recycling. It seems that other study results showed similar results. For example in
the Greendex survey (2008) the British were among the top three countries when it comes to
recycling actions undertaken. It seems that recycling is very present in the UK and that customers
usually relate it to sustainability features.
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Also over the 30 % of the EU citizens, among them the British were the most likely to select
minimising waste and recycling as the actions having the greatest impact on solving
environmental problems (EU barometer, 2008).
DEFRA's (2008) results showed that 71 % of respondents were engaged in recycling more and
intended to continue to do the same in the UK.
Other sustainability features in our study were longevity, the way products are produced, where
products are produced, packaging and similar results were found in other survey. A survey done
by (PwC, 2008) showed that customers care more about what they buy, how it is made, what it is
made from, how far it travels and how it is packaged.
Also in the car and vehicle accessories segment customers want to have more fuel efficient cars
as our study results showed. Also some other studies showed that people are reluctant to change
their behaviour in transportation sector and that people just love convenience of car use (DEFRA
2008&Greendex 2009).
However we found through our interviews that customers are largely affected by taxes on fuels
and they want to pay lower taxes especially for companies’ cars.
In our analysis we showed some statements that showed us a large influence of regulations on
retailers/managers.
Our study results showed that the business sustainability plans were in direction of recycling and
energy efficiency in the outdoor equipment segment. In the car segment plans are to increase
offer of fuel efficient and hybrid cars.
It seems again as other studies showed that the business side plans are in a large proportion in
direction of recycling (EUbarometer, 2008).
Also customers and manufacturer driven was something that was found in our study.
It seems that statistics were very similar to some other studies but we think beside these statistics
we have more knowledge about sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK and especially in the
selected segments through statements.
5.CONCLUSION
Going through different perspectives we saw that sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK is
very important.
Investigating the existing EU’s and the UK’s regulation we found it is changing over the past
years.
At the EU level there is a sustainable consumption and production programme that includes
different areas of action. In the UK there is a national sustainable development plan and many
other instruments explained that will encourage greater sustainable consumption.
After giving a background intro to the mentioned issues, we then started with investigation of
sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK.
Firstly, the world tracking survey on sustainable consumer behaviour was analysed.
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This was National Geographic survey Greendex.
After checking the UK’s ranking in the worldwide survey, we then investigated sustainable
consumer behaviour in the UK only.
The main findings of this survey were that environmental awareness increased and the British are
more aware of the environmental issues. Also it was found that they are starting to buy more
environmentally friendly products. When it comes to actions that are undertaken mostly British
are undertaking recycling. Also this survey showed reluctance of changing transportation
behaviour because the British like to travel by car.
But as these surveys were more in general not related to any specific segment of the industry, we
did our own research in the outdoor equipment and car and vehicle accessories segment.
Results showed that in the both segments outdoor equipment and car and vehicle accessories
sustainability is important for customers. Over two thirds in the both segments said sustainability
is either fairly or very important for customers.
When analyzing customers’ willingness to pay, again around two thirds in the both segments said
that customers are willing to pay more for sustainable products. Also there are some respondents
who did not quantify how much customers are willing to pay more.
The most frequent willingness to pay for environmentally friendly products in the outdoor
equipment was up to 5% more, comparing to car and vehicle accessories of 5-10% more.
However maximum willingness to pay was larger in the outdoor equipment with 20 % more,
while in the car and vehicle accessories this was up to 10 % more.
Probably this is due to larger prices in the car and vehicle accessories segment. We also need to
mention that from this answer we found out that price is the main barrier while purchasing
sustainable products.
Also we found this through the interviews with experts on sustainable consumer behaviour in the
UK.
Our respondents in the both segments told us that market for environmentally friendly products
developed well over the last few years. This answer was in less than a half of the sample. When
analyzing projection on development of this market in the future, more positive projections were
in the car and vehicle accessories segment. In this segment around 40 % respondents said they
see it as an upward trend. This can tell us maybe that the outdoor equipment segment is better
developed. But as this customer can be in the both segments we can expect better development
for the car and vehicle accessories segment.
In the outdoor equipment segment recycling is the sustainability feature that customers are mostly
interested in, comparing to fuel efficiency in the car and vehicle accessories segment. It seems
there is a large percentage of customers that think recycling is important sustainability feature.
Other two studies, DEFRA’s and Greendex showed similar studies.
Also in the both segments many retailers related their plans with sustainability to government
regulations and following the same.
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When asking about plans regarding sustainability in the outdoor equipment segments recycling is
again the most frequent answer. On the other hand in the car and vehicle accessories segment
plans are to increase number of fuel efficient cars and hybrid cars and to follow what
manufactures do.
We think this is an important piece of information for manufacturers that retailers will follow
what they do.
Through interviews we found there is a shifting from niche products sustainable market to
mainstream products market. This is important for the segments that we investigated, as we think
it is more mainstream product market.
Based on our research we think there is going to be positive development of market for products
having incorporated sustainability features.
Our research showed there is a large awareness about sustainability features in the selected
segments. Also customers are willing to pay more for environmentally friendly products in the
both segments. It is important to say that still price is a barrier for more sustainable products
purchase. Supported with our study results currently products with sustainable features
incorporated are overpriced. We think if prices would be up to 10 % more in the investigated
segments, this would be a winning combination for more sustainable consumer behaviour in the
UK.
Also it is important to mention that manufacturers of the products in the selected segments can
produce more products that have sustainability features incorporated. We say this as our results
showed there is a large awareness among customers on sustainability in the selected segments.
Moreover also retailers have plans to increase their offers of products that have sustainability
features incorporated and to follow what manufacturers will do.
Our projections about development of sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK are very
positive. In the future probably also regulations will be stricter. Probably customers will demand
more products that have sustainability features incorporated.
Doing nothing for the business side in the outdoor segment and car and vehicle accessories is no
longer an option. We think consequences of doing business unethically or in an environmentally
unfriendly manner in the investigated segments can be large in the long run.
All in all we think future will bring more sustainable consumer behaviour in the UK in general
and in the outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories. Business side should seriously involve in
this market in order not to lose the game and market share. With all market players’ involvement,
consumers, businesses and regulators we will witness more sustainable consumption that can lead
us to more sustainable development in the future.
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European Citizens towards the Environment
FLO 2005, Fair Trade Labelling Organisation, Fair Trade in Europe
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
2005: Facts and Figures in 25 European Countries
Greendex 2009, Consumer Choice and the Environment – A Worldwide Tracking Survey
[Online] Available at: http://www:nationalgeographic.com/greendex/
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Maloney, M.P. and Ward, M.P. 1973, ‘Ecology: let’s hear from the people: an objective scale for
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[Accessed 25 April 2010].
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Brand
Persuade to Buy: Implications for Online Advertising
Alma Jeftić1, Dženan Đonko
International University of Sarajevo1, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences,
71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E-mail: ajeftic@ius.edu.ba
Abstract
The aim of this article is to explore the development of a variety of online advertising tools and
the implications that the characteristics of these tools have on their effectiveness, as well as to
discover how important are the amount and nature of cognitive processing that a person does
about a persuasive message in order to determine the kind of persuasion that occurs.
Even though advertisements are a necessary and important component of the Internet, most users
are merely concerned with the quality of online experience and do not appreciate pop-up ads.
However, the majority of previous researches in the area of online advertising lack in application
of psychological theories of information processing and attitude change. This article seeks to
explore the connection between cognitive processing and consumers' online experience as well as
behaviour change in order to provide the most important factors that attract customers. The study
18
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Title
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Sustainable Consumer Behaviour in the UK -In general and in relation to outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories-
Author
Author
Ajla , Ćosić
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Sustainability is becoming an important factor to consider while buying different products such as outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories. Also there is a growing awareness that business side should take an important role in promotion of sustainable consumer behaviour. This paper investigates sustainable consumer behaviour in general and in relation to outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories in the UK. It explores sustainable consumer behaviour through 50 phone interviews with retailers in outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories over the UK. The findings reveal there is a large awareness on sustainability issues in the investigated segments. Also there is willingness to pay more up to 20 % more for products with sustainability features in the outdoor equipment and vehicle accessories. Moreover projections on development of sustainable consumer behaviour are very positive. Business plans for more sustainable consumption include an increase in number of products with sustainability features and following manufacturers. The paper concludes with some reflections on how sustainable consumption behaviour should be promoted from the business side and gives recommendations for the businesses in the investigated segments. Keywords: sustainable consumer behaviour; the UK; outdoor equipment; vehicle accessories; interviews.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ba794ea282194819e0032dfd57c587c0.pdf
dd0aa0160c601614ff744e51c00fa60d
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Text
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
TCMB (2012) Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (EVDS), www.tcmb.gov.tr
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Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Bulguları”, D.E.Ü. İİBF Dergisi, 1(18), 45–61.
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VAR Analizi ie İncelenmesi, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi,2(1),47-63.
Vamvoukas, G. (1999) The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Greece, Applied
Economics,31, 1093-1100.
Zengin, A. (2000) İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi (Türkiye Uygulaması), Gazi Üniversitesi Ekonomik
Yaklaşım Dergisi,11(39), 37–67.
The Eu Integration And The Monetary Union: Why England Don’t Join The Euro
Akcay Ekrem Yasar1,Akman Elvettin2,Akman Cigdem2
1Ankara Unıversity,Ankara/Turkey
2Suleyman Demirel University,Isparta/Turkey
E-mails: ey_akcay@hotmail.com,elvettinakman@sdu.edu.tr, cigdemargun@sdu.edu.tr
Abstract
EU which was established in 1957 with Rome Treaties and in 1992 with Maastricht
Treaty made process from economic union towards political union, also has tried considering
the harmony many issues such as agriculture, commerce. One of these issues is monetary
union.
Within the Monetary Union that came into make its plans in 1969 and it was thought
that could prevent the cycle and consider the common monetary policy. In this framework, in
1979, The European Monetary System was established and then in 1986 within the Single
European Act, this process continued and in 1992 with Maastricht Treaty it became clearer.
Then in 1997, The European Monetary Institute was established and finally in 1999,
EURO was accepted as monetary unit for EU members. Now, 17 members put the EURO
account but England hasn’t yet. There are many causes about this issues such as political,
economics, social, national interests. for England. In addition, this issue or policy effected the
other relationships of England.
Keywords: EU, England, The Monetary Union, EURO, National Interests.
1. INTRODUCTION
The idea of integration in Europe begins with Dante in the 13. Century, embodied by the
Organization for European Coal and Steel established by the Treaty of Paris (ECSC) after
World War II in 1951 and the European Economic Community (EEC) established by Treaties
of Rome in 1957, the Union lived an important process of deepening and enlargement over
time (Akçay, Akman and Argun, 2011).
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The Union that also goes the political integration with the Maastricht Treaty signed in 1992
and took the name of European Union (EU), started common policy in many areas such as
Common Foreign and Security Policy, Common Commercial Policy, Common Monetary
Policy for providing integration by all means. The foundation of the Common Monetary
Policy which appears as one of these policies was implemented in the 1960s; concrete steps
have been taken in 1999 by the acceptance and implementation of the euro as the currency
(Karluk and Tonus, 1998).
Economic crisis that has started in 2008 and influenced and many Community member
countries such as Greece, Italy, influenced the world in general and the European Union in
particular. Although many countries use the euro especially in a period when the future of the
euro and the European Union is discussed, Britain's not use despite being a member of the
Unity, is seen in the current situation provides an advantage to England.
Our study focuses on why Britain doesn’t use the euro. In this sense, in our study, initially the
Community's Common Monetary Policy’s historical process will be addressed, then British
perception of the Community and the Common Monetary Policy will be mentioned and
finally the question of why Britain did not want to use the euro will try to be answered.
2. Common Monetary Policy’s Historical Development Process
The basis of the Common Monetary Policy are taken to the period starts with La Haye
Summit in December 1969 and report that was prepared under the chairmanship of postperiod Luxembourg Prime Minister Pierre Werner and was named as "Werner Report". By
the report that was completed in October 1970, Common Monetary Policy which is planned
up to 10 years in three-stage is intended. The main objective of the Common Monetary Policy
has been the liberalization of capital movements, fixing exchange rates and the creation of the
single currency (Karluk and Tonus 1998).
While the Common Monetary Policy is being designed in this way, the collapse of the Bretton
Woods system in August 1971 and U.S.A.’s let to dollar fluctuate have created instability and
made it difficult to make planned things. In this sense, monetary integration had been arrested.
Thereupon, in March 1972, member states proposed the concept monetary snake "(Snake in
the tunnel) (Gavin, 2002; Möckli, 2009). Accordingly, this system is the fluctuation of
national coins against U.S. dollars, in a narrow margin (the tunnel). (snake) However, the oil
crisis was lived during this period and the weaknesses of the dollar have completed this
process, and a Mark region consists Germany, Benelux countries, Denmark was created
(Karluk and Tone, 1998).
Then, monetary integration was replicated with the support of France and Germany in 1979
and as a concrete step European Monetary System was established (Tunçsiper and Ruby,
1998). This system is based on fixed but adjustable exchange rates. All member states except
Britain, has been included in this system. However, this system that is applied about 10 years
did not create much change.
A committee chaired by J. Delors who is the president of the European Commission was
established at the European Summit in 1988 in Hanover, for economic and monetary
integration and a report was presented in April 1989. According to this report, establishing an
institution that is responsible for economics, political coordination, national budget deficits
and monetary policy was suggested.
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In the light of this report and proposal, starting the first phase of the Economic and Monetary
Union was decided at the Madrid Summit in June 1989 and even the United Kingdom is
against, fully liberalization of capital movement in eight member states until 1 July 1990 was
intended (Karluk and Tonus, 1998).
However, with the Maastricht or European Union Treaty that was signed after the Maastricht
Summit in 1992 Community came into a political integration process and completion of
Common Monetary Policy process within a calendar was decided.
In addition, in 10 January 1994, member states have agreed to the concrete but non-binding
rules about the approximation of the economic policies. In parallel with these steps, European
Monetary Institute was established for the coordination of monetary policy. After that, related
to the single monetary policy, the national central banks have been left to the European
System of Central Banks created by the European Central Bank and this structure has taken
the place of the European Monetary Institute.
Volatility in the U.S. dollar in 1995 has show that a single monetary policy is needed in the
European Union and required, the decision of pass of the member states before 1 January
1999 to a single monetary policy that has been called "Euro”, is held at the Madrid Summit
carried out at 15-16 December 1995 and the Amsterdam Summit in 1997. The design of euro
banknotes that was accepted in 1999 passed in 2002 and while initially 12 member countries
were participated in Euro, this number today has became 17. (Erçel,
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/yeni/banka/emu/SORULAR5.html, 2012).
3. View of England to the EU and the Common Monetary Policy
England, throughout history, didn’t look at to an integration that will be lived in Europe too
hot. Because both it doesn’t consider such an integration could be achieved and doesn’t want
the presence of another power in continental Europe except it.
Historically, Commonwealth countries are important for both commercial and foreign policy
in England. Commonwealth countries, has a share of 43% in British trade (Gavin, 2002). But
the main point in here is that England makes cheap agricultural policy with the
Commonwealth countries. In this sense, when look at to Europe, the Common Agricultural
Policy, is a policy that is under the influence of France, and more expensive than Britain's
Commonwealth policy. Because of expensiveness of Europe Common Agricultural Policy
and scarcity of agricultural land in England, and therefore the fact that England will receive
less money from Europe, than it pays, Britain was not hot to the issue, it has created
hesitation. Because this policy will create a deficit on the balance of payments in England
(Young, 2000).
However, deteriorating relations with Commonwealth countries of England in time led it to
the EEC. In fact, although United Kingdom wasn’t hot for EEC membership, it wanted to
make a Free Trade Agreement with the EEC and thus close the trade deficit by continuing
relations with the countries of the Commonwealth. However, the integration of Britain with
EEC delayed due to political events such as both the common agricultural policy, both the
pound and the Fouchet Plan area, Nassau Agreement with the EEC (Young, 2000).
While England was trying to establish a relationship with the EEC, on the other hand, it tried
to continue its relationship with countries of the Commonwealth. One of the important
reasons of this is for this is Sterling Area. England uses Sterling in trade with Commonwealth
countries and also uses excess of the sterling appears in the Commonwealth countries as a
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result of being deposited to London banks, in the banking system and tries to eliminate trade
deficit (Young, 2000).
As addition to this, when it is looked to international conjuncture at the inter-war period,
economic disturbances, and crises carried the world to the World War II, and the world is
connected to dollars by Bretton Woods system that was made after war. With this system,
members of the IMF were attached to a certain extent to the dollar and it was called the fixed
exchange rate. With this system, states were connected their money to dollar, their dollars to
the gold. Now, countries have excess of dollar at the end of trade started to take back this
excess (Gavin, 2002).
In this environment, even though Great Britain caught up advantage with the Pound Sterling
Area, this situation began to deteriorate in 1949. Commonwealth countries wanted to convert
their money in dollars but because of the absence of enough dollars in the hands of England, it
was forced to devalue. In fact, Britain didn’t want to devalue, and resisted until the last point.
In this sense, it banned the exits to abroad for tourism, made restriction of the sterling,
restricted military expenditures, even began to withdraw from east of Suez. Because
devaluation will be a significant loss of prestige for a strong state such as Britain. However,
when the situation deteriorated, it had to go to the devaluation. By the devaluation, moneys
value was devalued against other currencies, the price of manufactured goods was reduced
over other currencies and exports have been encouraged (Parr, 2006). In this case although
trade deficit is reduced and it also increases the value of reserves, Commonwealth countries
that have more Sterling in their hands suffered a loss and England that is a major financial and
banking center has experienced the loss of prestige. In addition, although it tries to reduce its
burden of military spending by making offset agreements with Germany, it couldn’t be
successful, and in 1967 it was forced to make one more devaluation (Zimmermenn, 2000).
Britain's EEC approach was been as result of this situation but was rejected by De Gaulle
because of the political and economic reasons
At the same time, the dollar was connected to gold by the Bretton Woods system and gold
wase demanded with the dollar surplus but because of the absence of gold reserves in the U.S.
that will do so, United States began to fall into difficulty. When U.S.A. considered that it
couldn’t protect the gold, it also directed to Germany like Britain and has worked to alleviate
its burden by Offset Agreements. However, the devaluation in England in 1967 put also the
United States into trouble. Because sterling is now transformed into dollar. Thereupon, when
De Gaulle wanted to exchange gold in its hand to gold for political reasons, the United States
lived a little more trouble and provided not to be gold demanded by applying pressure (Gavin,
2002; Hoffmann, 1964). In the meantime, Britain turned its famous banking infrastructure
into a structure that based on dollars and has become the world's second largest market in
dollar reserves. In other words, Britain now tied up its everything in dollars and became
dependent on dollars by transforming into a structure that is finance dominated than industry
4. Instead of conclusion: Britain and the Euro
Britain, whose EU membership was rejected by the French leader De Gaulle because of
political and economic reasons between 1963 and 1967, became a member of the community
after the death of De Gaulle in 1973. Since this date, although it is a member of the
Community, it approached cautiously because of particularly the Community's Common
Agricultural Policy (even it participates) and Common Monetary Policy.Because, also called
two policies may cause ill effects at England's trade policy and the banking system such as
trade deficit, deterioration in the balance of payments
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Although, England who connected itself to the U.S. dollar in terms of financial and banking
system and convert its system from Sterling into dollars as the world's second largest dollar
reserves, being a member of the community, it didn’t obey the Community's common
monetary policy especially, refused to use the euro came into force in 1999.
Britain's entry into the agricultural policy would harm Commonwealth countries, which have
an important place with Britain, both politically and commercially. Britain that has already
been damaged by the Community's agricultural policy, is working to resolve this situation by
regional development policies (Eraktan, 2006).
If we look at in terms of the Common Monetary Policy, Britain’s which is so dependent to
U.S. Dollar; inclusion to Euro will cause its damage in terms of economic, political and
prestige. In the environment that the EUROZONE whose basis was constructed by The Hague
Summit in 1969 and Werner Report, became a threat to the EU’s future by recently living a
difficult test because of the crisis, it is a fact that it provided a significant advantage to
England.
Eu Economic Integration Process Of Macedonia
Agim Mamuti
International Balkan University (IBU),Skopje, Macedonia
agim.mamuti@yahoo.com
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to provide a general overview of the accession process with a
special reference to the economic integration and the challenges of the Republic of Macedonia
in the road of joining the European Union.
The European Council of December 2005 granted the status of candidate country to the
Republic of Macedonia. The Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) between the
Republic of Macedonia and the EU was signed in April 2001 and entered into force in April
2004. The Council adopted the Accession Partnership for the country, including key priorities
for reform, in February 2008. In October 2009, the Commission recommended to the Council
to open negotiations with the country, as well as to move to the second phase of SAA
Implementation. These recommendations were reiterated in 2010. The Council has not yet
concluded its deliberations on the Commission's proposals. Visa liberalization for citizens
travelling to the Schengen area has been in force since 19 December 2009.
The country has a small, open economy, with total trade in goods and services recovering to a
level of 114% of GDP in 2010, following the 2009 recession. Trade integration with the EU is
advanced, with about 63% of all exports currently going to and about 53% of imports
originating from the EU. The CEFTA region is the country's second most important trading
region, accounting for around 24% of exports and around 10% of imports. The export
structure continues to be highly concentrated on a limited range of products, with textiles and
clothing accounting for about 17% of total exports and manufactured iron products for 26% in
272
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1333
Title
A name given to the resource
The Eu Integration And The Monetary Union: Why England Don’t Join The Euro
Author
Author
Akcay , Ekrem Yasar
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
EU which was established in 1957 with Rome Treaties and in 1992 with Maastricht Treaty made process from economic union towards political union, also has tried considering the harmony many issues such as agriculture, commerce. One of these issues is monetary union. Within the Monetary Union that came into make its plans in 1969 and it was thought that could prevent the cycle and consider the common monetary policy. In this framework, in 1979, The European Monetary System was established and then in 1986 within the Single European Act, this process continued and in 1992 with Maastricht Treaty it became clearer. Then in 1997, The European Monetary Institute was established and finally in 1999, EURO was accepted as monetary unit for EU members. Now, 17 members put the EURO account but England hasn’t yet. There are many causes about this issues such as political, economics, social, national interests. for England. In addition, this issue or policy effected the other relationships of England. Keywords: EU, England, The Monetary Union, EURO, National Interests.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance
-
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fbc4f66507b30a672acd84060fe0f4fb
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3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Effects Of Gender Diversity On The Growth Of The Firms In The Incubators73
Akyüz Mürsel1, Albeni Mesut1, Bozdağ Hakan1, Karaöz Murat2
1Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
2Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey, mkaraoz@akdeniz.edu.tr
E-mails: murselakyuz@sdu.edu.tr,mesutalbeni@sdu.edu.tr, hakanbozdag@sdu.edu.tr
Abstract
Factors affecting the growth of the firms are usually divided into three groups. These are
factors related firms, factors related entrepreneurial, and industry – related factors. Gender
diversity is a entrepreneurial – based factor. In this study we investigated the effect of gender
diversity on the growth of the firms. So far, in empirical studies being male or female
entrepreneurs are found to be an impact on firm performance. It appears from studies that
survival probabilities of firms founded by women are lower than those firms founded by male
entrepreneurs and firms which established by women entrepreneurs grow more slowly than
firms established by male entrepreneurs was concluded.
To measure the impact of gender diversity on growth performance of firms we used data of
business incubation firms in Turkey. Face to face interviews were conducted with companies
operating in the 12 Business Incubators around the Turkey. The sample of this study is firms
still active in business incubators, firms are closing left and was graduated from Business
Incubators.
In the application part of the study we investigated Tobit Regression Model to measure the
effect of the gender diversity on the growth of the firms. Based on findings, gender diversity
was concluded to be effective on the growth of the firms in a meaningful way.
Keywords: Firm Growth, gender diversity, entrepreneurs, firm survival, incubators.
1.INTRODUCTION
Discussions of firm growth based on very old. Gibrat launched the debate on the growth of
the firm with his work in 1931. According to Gibrat firm growth rates is independent of firms
initial scale. Today the growth of the firms is an increasingly important area of debate. To
much work has been done so far on this subject in different countries but have little or no
literature on firm growth in Turkey.
73 This study includes some results of a project supported by TÜBİTAK. We thanks to TÜBİTAK for
their supports. (The project was; “İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan Girişimlerin Hayatta Kalma Ve
Büyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: Kosgeb İş Geliştirme Merkezleri (İŞGEM) Üzerine Bir
Araştırma, 2010”, Project Director: Professor Dr. Murat KARAÖZ)
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Mentioned several factors that affect firm growth. They are devoted to three main
categories. These;
Entepreneur related factors
Firm related factors
Industry related factors
Which characteristics of entrepreneur, entrepreneur’s age, educational level, past work
experience and gender as factors affecting the growth of the firm discussed in the literature of
the growth of the firm.
In this study, we will investigate the affects of the gender diversity on the growth of the
firms. Until now, most of the studies concluded that gender differences affect firm
performance. Companies founded by women entrepreneurs, they grow more slowly than
male competitors and more likely to failure is expressed. To reveal the relationship between
gender and the firm performance we carried out analyses with the firms in the business
incubators aroun the Turkey.
In the second section of the study there is summary of the literature about the relationship
between gender and firm performance. After this in the third section we estimated the Tobit
Regression analysis to measure the relationship between gender and firm growth.
2. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENDER AND FIRM PERFORMANCE
Gender of the entepreneur founded the firm are often associated with the firm
performance. The findings shows that, firms founded by women enprepreneurs demonstrates
lower growth rates than male competitors. (Coad, 2009; 89).The works which observed the
relationship between gender and firm growth generally concludes that founder of the firm
being male or female makes performance differences..
Empirical studies shows that firms founded by women grow more slowly than firms
founded by male entrepreneurs. The small firms founded by women have an important role
especially in developing countries. In developing countries firms established by women are
less ambitious about growth and financial performance than firms founded by men (Singh,
2001).
According to a compherensive study made by Mead and Liedholm (1998) in the African
countries; firms established by male entrepreneurs grew by 11% per annum, on the other
hand firms founded by women entrepreneurs grew by 7% per annum. Study suggests that;
entrepreneur’s gender has a signifciant effect on the firms growth or survival. Chance of
survival and growth of the firms established by women, other factors fixed, is lower than
firms founded by male entrepreneurs. However, reasons of the higher proportion of closures
for the firms founded by women entrepreneurs may be personal or other non-business.
Considering only work-related reasons, does not occur any difference in closing rates.
In a study in the Dominican Republic; Firms established by men have high labor
productivity, on the other hand firms founded by women have low productivity and growth
rates. (Downing and Daniels, 1992; Edit, Nichter and Goldmark, 2009). Coad and Tamvada
(2008) similarly have done a study for Indian firms. According to the results; firms managed
by women are more likely to decline than firms managed by male entrepreneurs. Also firms
founded by the women are less likely to growth. They also have concluded that the firms
established by women grow more slowly among the growing firms.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Other studies examining the relationship between gender and firm performance;
Catley and Hamilton (1998), McPherson (1996).
3. IMPACT OF THE GENDER DIVERSITY ON THE FIRMS PERFORMANCE
3.1. Sample of the Survey
Sample of our study are the firms in the business incubators around the Turkey. There are 12
business incubators around the Turkey. We investigated the firms which currently operat in
incubators, graduated from incubators and closed. There are 466 firms in the incubators in
Adana, Diyarbakır, Elazığ, Ereğli, Zonguldak, Mersin, Tarsus, Samsun, Van, Yozgat,
Eskişehir and Nevşehir. We have used the 414 questionned firms as a sample in our
investigation.
3.2. The Variables Used In
Totally 23 variables there were used in our analysis. 22 of this are independent variables. In
accordance with literature there are entrepreneur related variables, firm related variables,
industry related variables and hatchery related variables. We have made the variables
categorical. For example, if a firm have grown the value is “1”, in contrary if a firm have not
grown the value is “0”.
The “gender” variable created to measure the impact of the gender diversity on the firm
performance is concerns us even more. “gender” variable were included in the analysis with
the other variables whether there is any meaningful effect on the growth of the firm.
Table 1: Variables Used In Analysis
VARIABLE
firmgrowth
gender
lnentage
enteduuni
workexp
entexp
manexp
ortaksay
export
lnempini
onlyloan
onlyselffin
networking
yen
marka
buro
ortakhiz
danisman
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DESCRIPTION
Dependent Variable
Firm Growth (%)
ENTREPRENEUR FEATURES
İf entrepreneur is female; 1, if male; 0 (if there are both male and
female partner; 0)
Age of the entrepreneur(if there is a partnership the odest partner
age, logarithmic scale)
Education level of the entrepreneur , If a university degree; 1, if not;
0 (if there is a partnership and if one of the partner has university
graduates; 1)
Previous working experience of the entrepreneur as a worker (year)
Previous experience of entrepreneurship (year)
Previous management experience of the entrepreneur (year)
FIRM FEATURES
The number of the partner in the venture
The company has had an export; 1, if not; 0
İnitial size of the firm (logarithmic scale)
if the initial capital is fully loan; 1, if not; 0
İf the initial capital is fully own allowance; 1, if not; 0
İf entrepreneur has made network with the firms in the incubator or
firms outside the incubator; 1, if not; 0
İf entrepreneur has made innovation; 1, if not; 0
İf firm has a trademark; 1, if not; 0
INCUBATION SERVICES
İf entrepreneur has received one office services at least in the
incubator;1, if not; 0
İf entrepreneur has received one of common services offered at
least in the incubation;1, if onot; 0
İf entrepreneur has received one of advisory services at least in the
incubation 1, if not; 0
Number of
observation
Average
Min.
Max.
351
0.12
0
1
414
0.14
0
1
367
3.64
3
4.25
414
0.31
0
1
414
414
414
8.21
5.83
6.98
0
0
0
1
40
40
414
414
392
414
414
1.24
0.10
1.31
0.26
0.26
1
0
0
0
0
4
1
5.70
1
1
414
0.62
0
1
414
414
0.41
0.19
0
0
1
1
414
0.61
0
1
414
0.64
0
1
414
0.58
0
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
İf fhe firm has been established within the first 36 months of
incubation was established; 1, if not; 0
The number of rash in the incubation
INDUSTRY FEATURES
Intensity of competition in the sector (Likert scale of 1-5)
İf the company in the manufacturing industry; 1, if firm in the
service sector; 0
EXTERNAL FEATURES
The share of the city’s GNP per capita İn the Turkey’s GNP per
capita (%)
İf firm has experienced already a crisis 1, if not; 0
whenest
incubsize
compete
sektor
ilrank
cycle
414
0.55
0
1
414
43.14
14
84
410
411
3.53
0.81
1
0
5
1
414
1.51
0.59
2.07
414
0.76
0
1
3.3. The Model
3.3.1. Tobit Model
Using Tobit model the growth equation will be estimated. (Tobin, 1958). In this model the
continuous observation of the values and discrete changes in the values of zero is governed
by the same stochastic process. So decisions of both growth and to continue the activities
affected by the same set of exogenous variables. Tobit Model assumes that businesses closing
as a corner solution. All these assumptions makes Tobit model such a statistically restrictive
method. (Karaöz ve Albeni, 2010).
3.4. Empirical Findings
To bring out how gender diversity affects the growth of firms firmgrowth variable was taken
as the dependent variable and gender variable was included in the analysis together with all
other independent variables. Tobit regression was estimated for this purpose. There is a high
correlation between incubation services, buro, danisman and ortakhiz variables. So they were
made separately for the regression analysis. The entrepreneur features workexp, entexp and
mangexp variables in the same way were taken separately in the analysis to put forward the
individual contributions of each variables.
gender variable was included in the analysis as independent variable to measure the affect of
the gender differencies on the growth of the firms. İf the entrepreneur is women “1” was
given as a value. On the other hand if the entrepreneur is male “0” was given as a value. (if
there is both women and male partner “0” was given as a value)
We have 351 data belonging to firms for growth datas.74 144 of these firms has grown but
207 of them has not grown.
Table 2: Grown Firms (Categorical)
fg01 (grown, not grown,
categorical)
Number
%
0 (not grown)
207
58.97
1 (grown)
144
41.03
Total
351
100.00
74 NOTE: We have not reached historical information of some companies. So there is no evidence
about growing of this firms. For that reason This is why the 351 firms were used.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Firms grow and not grow were put forward categorical with the fg01 variable. İf firm has
grown “1” was given, if firm has not grown “0” was given. According to the results 144
firms in the incubators has grown. The rate of the grown firms is %41.03.
132 firms of them 144 growing firms founded by male entrepreneurs. So %91 of growing
firms was founded by men. Only 12 0f 144 growing firms founded by women entrepreneur.
This corresponds to %9 of growing firms.
Table 3: Gender and Grown Firms (Categorical)
fg01 (grown, not grown
categorical)
gender (male, female, categorical)
0 (male)
1 (female)
Total
0 (not grown)
182
25
207
1 (grown)
132
12
144
Total
314
37
351
Tobit regression analysis results are given in the table below. According to the result of Tobit
regression anlysis gender differences has a significant affect on the growth of the firm
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
MODEL 1
Table 4:
Tobit
Regression
Analysis
Results
MODEL 2
MODEL 3
MODEL 4
MODEL 5
Coefficients
P Values
Coefficients
P Values
Coefficients
P Values
Coefficients
P Values
Coefficients
P Values
gender
-50.52
0.192
-59.55
0.123
-64.64
0.095*
-37.94
0.332
-40.99
0.294
Lnentage
-24.53
0.668
-29.27
0.608
-22.32
0.695
-81.14
0.163
-63.50
0.254
Enteduuni
-13.47
0.610
-13.78
0.600
-16.59
0.527
-11.73
0.657
-8.45
0.751
Workexp
-0.52
0.686
-0.77
0.546
-0.82
0.521
2.31
0.169
Entexp
Mangexp
2.63
0.087*
Ortaksay
64.25
0.002***
52.83
0.013**
57.48
0.007***
63.80
0.003***
63.84
0.003***
Export
-13.65
0.714
-14.35
0.698
-7.98
0.830
-9.18
0.805
-8.38
0.823
Lnempini
-66.24
0.000
-64.82
0.000
-67.66
0.000
-68.24
0.000
-67.66
0.000
Onlyselffin
-39.57
0.137
-45.75
0.083*
-35.84
0.177
-39.91
0.128
-37.41
0.156
Network
114.27
0.001***
107.53
0.001***
113.17
0.001***
110.37
0.001***
108.77
0.001***
Yen
83.33
0.001***
83.12
0.001***
83.37
0.001***
81.88
0.002***
80.27
0.002***
Buro
87.25
0.008***
82.35
0.013**
85.11
0.010**
Onlyloan
ortakhiz
Danisman
449
123.60
0.001***
91.92
0.002***
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Sektor
-54.75
0.085*
-51.50
0.105
-60.39
0.055**
-52.18
0.101
-52.30
0.101
Compete
5.67
0.579
1.27
0.902
3.32
0.745
4.08
0.689
4.47
0.662
Marka
89.84
0.004***
88.50
0.004***
96.83
0.002***
85.04
0.006***
85.89
0.005***
Whenest
12.16
0.642
24.37
0.353
11.77
0.651
11.79
0.651
8.89
0.735
İncubsize
0.22
0.652
0.23
0.629
0.10
0.836
0.20
0.673
0.21
0.666
Cycle1
28.42
0.317
35.70
0.204
34.41
0.221
27.31
0.335
32.46
0.256
ilrank
-38.49
0.203
-47.95
0.116
-33.06
0.270
-37.36
0.216
-42.06
0.167
Log likehood
-1740.36
-1738.47
-1739.18
-1738.96
-1739.49
LR chi2(18)
126.25
130.01
128.60
129.04
127.99
Prob>chi2
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pseudo R2
0.035
0.036
0.036
0.036
0.035
*; %10 Significance of importance level , **; %5 Significance of importance level , ***; %1 Significance of importance level
450
�4. CONCLUSION
Influence of gender differences in the performance of the company has become a much discussed
topic in the literature. So far, most of the studies has concluded that gender difference affects firm
performance. Companies founded or managed by women entrepreneurs are growing more slowly
than firms founded by male entrepreneurs was concluded in the studies. Some studies suggest the
possibility of the sinking of the companies founded by women entrepreneurs is high.
According to the results of the analysis in this study (10% significance level Tobit regression
analysis model, 3) the gender gap has a significant effect on firm performance.
There are 144 growing company according to our analysis. 132 of these companies was founded
by male entrepreneurs. Whereas, there are only 12 growing firms founded by women among the
144 growing firms. So companies founded by men entrepreneurs are more likely to growth than
firms founded by women entrepreneurs.
As a result, survival and growth of women entrepreneurs are less likely than male entrepreneurs
can be said. Main reasons for this, women entrepreneurs encounter financial difficulties, women's
business experience is less than and male-dominated an economy that the structure of such
reasons.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
CATLEY, S. ve R.HAMİLTON, “Small Business Development and Gender of Owner”, Journal
of Management Development, 17(1), 1998, 75-82.
COAD, A. , “The Growth of Firms”, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2009.
COAD, A. ve J.P. TAMVADA, “The Growth and Decline of Small Firms in Developing
Countries”, Papers on Economics and Evolution 2008-08, Max Planck Institute of Economics,
Evolutionary Economics Group, 2008.
COASE, R. , “The Nature of the Firm”, Economica, Cilt 4, Sayı 16, 1937, s.386-405.
DOWNING, J. ve DANİELS, L. “The Growth and Dynamics of Women Entepreneurs in South
Africa” GEMİNİ Technical Report Number 47, Washington, 1992. (Edit: Nichter, S. ve L.
Goldmark, “Small Firm Growth in Developing Countries”, World Development, Sayı 37, No 9,
s.1453-64, USA, 2009.
MCPHERSON, M.A. , “Growth of Micro and Small Enterprises in Southern Africa”, Journal of
Development Economics, 48, 1996, 253-77.
MEAD, D.C. ve C. LİEDHOLM, “The Dynamics of Micro and Small Enterprises in Developing
Countries”, World Development, 26(1), 1998, 61-74.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
MERRIFIELD, D.B. , “New Business Incubators, Journal of Business Venturing, 2, 1987, ss.
277-284.
NICHTER, S. , L. GOLDMARK, “Small Firm Growth in Developing Countries”, World
Development, Sayı 37, No 9, s.1453-64, USA,2009.
NISKANEN, M. ve J. NISKANEN, ‘’The Determinant of Firm Growth in Small and Micro
Firms-Evidence on Relationship Lending Effects”, School of Business and Administration,
University of Kuopio, Finland, 2005.
PENROSE E. T. , “The Theory of the Growth of the Firm”, Oxford: Basil Blackwell ve New
York: Wiley, s.76, 1959.
SINGH, A. , ve G. WHITTINGTON, ‘’The Size and Growth of Firms’’ , Review of Economic
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SINGH, S. P., REYNOLDS, R. G., ve MUHAMMAD, S. (2001). A gender-based performance
analysis of micro and small enterprises in Java, Indonesia. Journal of Small Business
Management, 39(2):174–182. (Edit: Coad, A. , ve Tamvada, J.P., “The Growth and Decline of
Small firms in Developing Countries”, Papers on Economics and Evolution, Max Planck Institute
of Economics Evolutionary Economics Group, 2008.)
SINGH, S.P. vd. , “A Gender-based Performance Analysis of Micro and Small Enterprises in
Indonesia”, Journal of Small Business Management, 39(2), 2001, 174-82.
TOBİN, J. (1958), “Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables”,
Econometrica, 26 (1), pp. 24-36.
TÜBİTAK Projesi ( Proje Yürütücüsü: Murat Karaöz), “İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan
Girişimlerin Hayatta Kalma ve Büyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: KOSGEB İş
Geliştirme Merkezleri (İŞGEM) Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, TÜBİTAK Projesi, Ara Rapor, 2010.
YILMAZ, F. , “Güç İlişkileri ve Firma Teorisi”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt 57, Sayı
1, 2002, ss.157-76.
452
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Effects Of Gender Diversity On The Growth Of The Firms In The Incubators73
Author
Author
Akyüz , Mürsel
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Factors affecting the growth of the firms are usually divided into three groups. These are factors related firms, factors related entrepreneurial, and industry – related factors. Gender diversity is a entrepreneurial – based factor. In this study we investigated the effect of gender diversity on the growth of the firms. So far, in empirical studies being male or female entrepreneurs are found to be an impact on firm performance. It appears from studies that survival probabilities of firms founded by women are lower than those firms founded by male entrepreneurs and firms which established by women entrepreneurs grow more slowly than firms established by male entrepreneurs was concluded. To measure the impact of gender diversity on growth performance of firms we used data of business incubation firms in Turkey. Face to face interviews were conducted with companies operating in the 12 Business Incubators around the Turkey. The sample of this study is firms still active in business incubators, firms are closing left and was graduated from Business Incubators. In the application part of the study we investigated Tobit Regression Model to measure the effect of the gender diversity on the growth of the firms. Based on findings, gender diversity was concluded to be effective on the growth of the firms in a meaningful way. Keywords: Firm Growth, gender diversity, entrepreneurs, firm survival, incubators.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance
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Text
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Positive Attitudes of Undergraduate Students toward Online Shopping
Ali Acılar
Bilecik Şeyh Edebali Üniversitesi
ali.acilar@bilecik.edu.tr
Abstract
In recent years, computers and the Internet have become an important part of modern
societies. These technologies have influenced almost all aspects of daily life; from education
to communication, from entertainment to business. Along with the spread of the Internet use,
the acceptance of online shopping has been growing, especially in the developed parts of the
world. However, electronic commerce is still in its infancy in developing countries. In this
study, the author explored positive attitudes of undergraduate students toward online
shopping and examined the association between positive attitudes of undergraduate students
toward online shopping and their demographics variables: gender, age and income. And
attitudes of online shoppers and non-online shoppers toward online shopping were compared.
Participants of this study were undergraduate business students in a public university in
Turkey. A paper-based questionnaire was used containing five-point Likert type scale to
explore students’ attitudes toward online shopping. A total of 314 students voluntarily
participated to the study. It is found that in general participants have positive attitudes toward
online shopping. Online shoppers have more positive attitudes than non-online shoppers
toward online shopping. Generally male students have more positive attitudes toward online
shopping than female counterparts. There is a positive correlation between income level and
positive attitude toward online shopping; as monthly family income increases, participants
have more positive attitudes toward online shopping.
Keywords: Online shopping, undergraduate students, positive attitudes
1.INTRODUCTION
Electronic commerce has become a worldwide phenomenon (Mahmood, Bagchi & Ford,
2004). According to Nielsen’s 2008 report, more than 85 percent of the world’s online
population has used the Internet to make a purchase (Nielsen, 2008). The volume of businessto-consumer (B2C) e-commerce transactions has continued to increase. According to the
United States Census Bureau, the total volume of B2C e-commerce transactions in the United
States was estimated to be 298 billion dollars in 2009 with an increase of 2.1 percent from
2008 (United States Census Bureau, 2010). As a developing country, in Turkey, Internet use
and B2C e-commerce transactions have also increased. The Interbank Card Center (BKM)
reported that, in Turkey, while domestic and international e-commerce transactions with
domestic cards were total of 1.8 billion Turkish liras (TL) (The total number of transactions =
17,668,587) in 2005, it reached to 14.1 billion TL (The total number of transactions =
96,138,157) in 2010 (BKM, 2011), (1 TL is about 0.55 U.S. dollars, December 06, 2011).
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Online shopping has become a popular way to purchase almost everything from electronics to
books and CDs to tickets and clothing. However there are considerable numbers of people
still hesitating to buy online because of various reasons, such as security and privacy.
Security issues, online fraud, reduced opportunity for sensory shopping, the postponement of
consumption or enjoyment of tangible products until physical delivery, poor design interface,
privacy concerns, limited product selection, and lack of face-to-face interactions with
salespeople are some of the challenges that are often cited in the literature as obstacles for
B2C e-commerce (Tamimi, Sebastianelli and Rajan, 2004). Barriers to online shopping can
be categorized such as functional and psychological barriers (Rudolph, Rosenbloom and
Wagner, 2004), as the major barriers which create customer resistance to innovations do
(Ram and Sheth, 1989). According to Ram and Sheth (1989), functional barriers are likely to
arise if consumers perceive significant changes from adopting an innovation and
psychological barriers arise when the innovation causes some conflict with customers' prior
beliefs. Usage, value and risk barriers refer to functional barriers, whereas tradition and
image barriers constitute psychological barriers (Ram and Sheth, 1989).
Demographics and lifestyle characteristics of customers play an important role in their buying
habits (Mahmood, Bagchi & Ford, 2004). While gender differences exist in choosing to visit
different types of website, possibly based on the different personality traits of males and
females, these differences also exist in online shopping experiences (Yang, Lester and James,
2007). Garbarino and Strahilevitz (2004) found that females perceive a higher level of risk in
online purchasing than do males. Jen-Hung and Yi-Chun (2010) studied gender differences in
adolescents' online shopping motivations based on utilitarian and hedonic motivations
surveying high school students in Taiwan and found that males hold significantly more
positive attitudes toward online shopping on utilitarian motivations (for example,
convenience, lack of sociality and cost saving) than the females whereas, females put more
emphasis on hedonic motivations (for example, adventure, sociality, fashion and value) on
Internet consumption. Hashim, Ghani and Said (2009) found that males tend to become more
online shopper compared to females. And their study supports that while males tend to be
convenience shoppers due to the high commitment on work and study, females tend to be
recreational shoppers and would prefer to do their shopping using the conventional way
(Hashim, Ghani & Said, 2009). Rodgers and Harris (2003) revealed that females were less
emotionally satisfied with online shopping than males, most likely because females skeptical
of online shopping and did not find it as convenient as males. In their study, males reported
greater trust in online shopping and perceived the Internet as a more convenient shopping
outlet than did females. Overall, males had more positive attitudes toward online shopping
than females (Rodgers and Harris, 2003). Previous studies have reported that age also affects
attitude toward online shopping. Hashim, Ghani and Said (2009) reported that there is
significant difference on the attitude toward online shopping differentiated by age. Their
study results revealed that those who are between 30 to 39 years old do more online shopping
compared to those between 20 to 29 years old and those over 40 years old. Sulaiman, Ng, and
Mohezar (2008) found that age is one of the affecting variables in e-ticketing adoption; eticketing is more popular among consumers, age between 26 to 35 years old than 18 to 26
years-old customers. Income levels affect the Internet users’ online shopping propensity
(Zukowski and Brown, 2007). Monsuwe, Dellaert and Ruyter (2004) reported that consumers
with higher household income intend to shop more online than lower income consumers do.
Teo (2006) found that online shopping adopters tend to have higher income level than nonadopters. Mahmood, Bagchi and Ford (2004) found that the factors of trust and economic
conditions make a significant positive contribution to online shopping behavior.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
While security and privacy issues continue to play an important role in affecting customers
purchasing decisions online, understanding the attitudes of Internet users toward online
shopping also important for understanding the dynamics of customers’ behavior in online
environment. In this study, the author explores the positive attitudes of undergraduate
students toward online shopping and examines the association between positive attitudes of
undergraduate students toward online shopping and their demographics variables: gender, age
and income. Attitudes of online shoppers and non-online shoppers toward online shopping
were also compared.
2.METHODOLOGY
2.1.Instrument
A paper based questionnaire was used in order to examine students’ attitudes toward online
shopping. Students’ attitudes toward online shopping were assessed using eleven five-point
Likert-scale questionnaire items (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree) adapted from
Yang, Lester and James (2007). The questionnaire also includes demographic questions.
2.2. Participants
Participants of this study were undergraduate business students in a public university in
Turkey. Participants were selected according to convenient sampling. The participation was
voluntary and anonymous. A total of 314 respondents completed the questionnaire, of which
311 were used for the purpose of this study. The sample included 194 female students
(62.4%) and 117 male students (37.6%). The average age of the participants was 20.81
excluding missing values. Majority of the participants are experienced Internet users. More
than 70 percent of the participants have been using the Internet for more than 3 years. While
55 percent of the participants use the Internet less than 9 hours weekly, 19.9 percent of the
participants use it more than 24 hours weekly. 171 participant students (54.98%) stated that
they have been shopped online at least once.
2.3. Data Analysis and Results
The respondent students generally have positive attitudes toward online shopping. Figure 1
shows the respondents’ agreement with selected statements about online shopping.
Concerning information, majority of the participants agree that Internet provides easy access
to information about goods/services (78.8 percent) and Internet provides comprehensive
information about goods/services (71.6 percent). Regarding purchasing goods online, 79.6
percent agree that they can order things from distant places and 78.6 percent agree that they
can purchase goods at any time of the day. 68.4 percent agree that they can access to a great
variety of products. But concerning price, 55.8 percent believe that they can get better price
online. 53.7 percent believe that online shopping saves walking from store to store. And 53.7
percent agree that they can stay home and shop.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Figure 1: Respondents’ agreement with statements about online shopping
Table 1 presents the results of t-test concerning participant students’ attitudes toward online
shopping regarding gender. According to the results of t-test, there were significant
differences between males and females in their attitudes toward online shopping in six items.
Generally male students have more positive attitudes toward online shopping than female
students. Males agree that online shopping saves walking from store to store more than
females do. Females do not agree that online shopping saves walking from store to store, it
requires less effort and they can get better prices as much as males do. Male students agree
that they can order things from distant places; they can purchase goods at any time of the day
and they can choose from a greater variety of models of the product more than female
students do.
1. It provides easy access to information
2. It provides comprehensive information
3. I can purchase goods and services faster
4. I can stay home and shop
5. It saves walking from store to store
6. It requires less effort on my part
7. I can get better prices
8. I can order things from distant places
9. I can purchase goods at any time of the day
10. I can choose from a greater variety of models of the product
11. I can gain access to after-sales services online
Gender
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
Mean
3.99
3.85
3.84
3.85
3.76
3.53
3.25
3.47
3.21
3.53
3.43
3.77
3.33
3.63
3.82
4.08
3.82
4.06
3.60
3.86
3.47
3.66
SD
0.90
1.08
0.99
1.06
1.01
1.12
1.18
1.10
1.23
1.17
1.10
0.98
1.19
1.14
1.05
0.77
1.06
0.82
1.08
0.97
1.02
1.04
Mean
Diff.
t
p
0.14
1.17
0.242
-0.01
-0.11
0.912
0.22
1.76
0.080
-0.22
-1.61
0.108
-0.32
-2.28
0.023*
-0.33
-2.77
0.006**
-0.30
-2.19
0.029*
-0.26
-2.49
0.014*
-0.24
-2.21
0.028*
-0.26
-2.23
0.027*
-0.19
-1.55
0.123
Table 1: Differences between gender groups in their attitudes toward online shopping
SD = Standard deviation, * indicates significant at the 0.05 level, ** indicates significant at the 0.01 level
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
1. It provides easy access to information
2. It provides comprehensive information
3. I can purchase goods and services faster
4. I can stay home and shop
5. It saves walking from store to store
6. It requires less effort on my part
7. I can get better prices
8. I can order things from distant places
9. I can purchase goods at any time of the day
10. I can choose from a greater variety of models of the product
11. I can gain access to after-sales services online
Online
shopper
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Mean
4.04
3.82
3.94
3.73
3.86
3.45
3.63
2.97
3.55
3.05
3.78
3.28
3.78
3.04
4.17
3.61
4.19
3.57
3.97
3.36
3.80
3.22
SD
0.90
1.05
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.06
1.11
1.11
1.22
1.16
1.01
1.07
1.11
1.13
0.87
0.99
0.87
1.00
0.93
1.09
0.93
1.06
Mean
Diff.
t
p
0.22
1.95
0.052
0.21
1.84
0.066
0.41
3.44
0.001**
0.66
5.21
<0.001**
0.50
3.69
<0.001**
0.50
4.17
<0.001**
0.75
5.84
<0.001**
0.56
5.29
<0.001**
0.63
5.81
<0.001**
0.61
5.22
<0.001**
0.58
5.06
<0.001**
Table 2: Differences between online shoppers and non-online shoppers in their attitudes toward
online shopping
SD = Standard deviation, ** indicates significant at the 0.01 level
Table 2 presents the results of t-test concerning differences between online shoppers and nononline shoppers in their attitudes toward online shopping. T-test indicated that there is a
significant difference between online shoppers and non-online shoppers. As expected, online
shoppers have more positive attitudes toward online shopping than non-online shoppers.
Regarding age and income, the results of the correlation analysis indicate that there is no
significant correlation between age and students’ attitude toward online shopping (see table
3). However, there is a significant positive correlation between monthly family income and
seven attitude items related to online shopping. It reflects that income levels have a positive
effect on students’ attitudes on shopping online, as monthly family income increases,
undergraduate students have more positive attitudes toward online shopping.
Age
Income
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
44
Age
1
-.06
.00
-.03
-.04
.07
.08
.04
.08
.01
.09
Income
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
.08
.12*
.04
.15**
.13*
.08
.16**
.12*
.15**
1
.86**
.59**
.35**
.27**
.27**
.27**
.39**
.34**
1
.55**
.37**
.29**
.33**
.27**
.38**
.34**
1
.51**
.44**
.31**
.40**
.43**
.38**
1
.75**
.60**
.65**
.56**
.62**
1
.69**
.64**
.60**
.58**
1
.65**
.67**
.60**
1
.65**
.63**
1
.82**
1
10
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
10
11
.04
-.03
.12*
.10
.32**
.26**
.29**
.27**
.34**
.34**
.50**
.49**
.48**
.50**
.52**
.56**
.57**
.51**
.62**
.62**
.70**
.62**
1
.60**
1
Table 3: Results of correlation analysis
3. CONCLUSIONS
This study, which is part of ongoing research, has investigated the positive attitudes of
undergraduate students toward online shopping. The findings suggest that in general
participant students have positive attitudes toward online shopping. It is found that online
shoppers have more positive attitudes than non-online shoppers, as expected. In general male
students have more positive attitudes toward online shopping than female students. There is a
positive correlation between income level and positive attitude toward online shopping; as
monthly family income increases, participants have more positive attitudes toward online
shopping.
The findings of the present study should be viewed in the light of its limitations. First, the
convenience sampling technique was used for the selection of the sample. Second, the survey
was conducted among students in the Department of Business Administration in a public
university in Turkey.
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Seock, Y. K. and Norton, M. J. T. (2008) College Student’ Perceived Attributes of Internet
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Sulaiman, A., Ng, J. and Mohezar, S. (2008) E-Ticketing as a new way of buying tickets:
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Tamimi, N., Sebastianelli, R. and Rajan, M. (2004) Examining the relationship between
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A Study About Mobbing On Students, The Relationship Between Their Personality
Traits And Mental Status
Zeki Akinci, Osman Nuri Demirel, Yusuf Yilmaz
Akdeniz University, Turkey
E-mails: zakinci@akdeniz.edu.tr, onuridemirel@mynet.com, yusufyilmaz@akdeniz.edu.tr
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46
�
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Title
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Positive Attitudes of Undergraduate Students toward Online Shopping
Author
Author
Ali , Acılar
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
In recent years, computers and the Internet have become an important part of modern societies. These technologies have influenced almost all aspects of daily life; from education to communication, from entertainment to business. Along with the spread of the Internet use, the acceptance of online shopping has been growing, especially in the developed parts of the world. However, electronic commerce is still in its infancy in developing countries. In this study, the author explored positive attitudes of undergraduate students toward online shopping and examined the association between positive attitudes of undergraduate students toward online shopping and their demographics variables: gender, age and income. And attitudes of online shoppers and non-online shoppers toward online shopping were compared. Participants of this study were undergraduate business students in a public university in Turkey. A paper-based questionnaire was used containing five-point Likert type scale to explore students’ attitudes toward online shopping. A total of 314 students voluntarily participated to the study. It is found that in general participants have positive attitudes toward online shopping. Online shoppers have more positive attitudes than non-online shoppers toward online shopping. Generally male students have more positive attitudes toward online shopping than female counterparts. There is a positive correlation between income level and positive attitude toward online shopping; as monthly family income increases, participants have more positive attitudes toward online shopping. Keywords: Online shopping, undergraduate students, positive attitudes
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
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PDF Text
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The Factors Which Caused The Decline In The Amount Of The Newly One Family
Houses Sold In Us
Ali Cüneyt Çetin1,Jing Li-Kole2
1Department of Accounting and Finance,Suleyman Demirel University
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Isparta, Turkey
2State University of New York at Oswego, New York, USA
E-mails: cuneytcetin@sdu.edu.tr,likole@oswego.edu
Abstract
The new privately owned one-family house sold (C25) is recognized as great indicator for
economy. The monthly data in February 2011 was 250,000 houses sold. Compared to five
years ago, 1,061,000 in 2006 were decreased by 76%. What are the causes to the dramatic
decline of number of C25? The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the
decline of number of C25 in US. Therefore, in this study, dependent variable is the new
privately owned one-family house sold. Independent variables include 30 years mortgage rate,
real personal income, unemployment rate, population, and house price index. The results
indicate when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family
houses sold decreases by 20 thousand. When the unemployment rate increases 1%, the
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases 81 thousand, holding all
other variables constant. We thought when price goes up the demand should go down. But it
doesn’t fit in this study. Income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not
significant. It shows that real personal income and unemployment have a high correlation. For
the population variable, the coefficient is a negative number. Even though the p-value
indicates that this result is not significant, we still couldn’t figure out the cause of this
negative relation. The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has
significant effects. However, from March to July the slopes of the months have positive or
lower negative effects. Consequently, it’s impossible to determine all the causes to the
number of new house sold since many factors are interrelated. However, through our series of
statistical tests, we could be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1%
level; mortgage rate at lag one time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal
incomes at lag one time period and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant
at 10% level.
Keywords: house sold, mortgage rate, income level, unemployment rate, population increases,
house price index
1.INTRODUCTION
Sales of new and existing privately owned single-family homes16 represent the number of
housing units sold. New homes are newly constructed houses that are sold by the developer to
the first owner. Existing homes are houses that are at least one year old. The number of new
and existing homes available for sale indicates the inventory of unsold houses that are on the
market.
A home is typically the largest single item bought by householders. Economic output is
increased far more by the purchase of a new house than of an existing house because of the
materials and construction work required in building a new house, although renovation work
is sometimes done when an existing house is purchased. While existing-home sales have a
much smaller direct impact on the economy than new-home sales, existing and new-home
sales are in fact closely linked because existing-home owners often can afford to buy a new
home only by selling their current home. Thus, the market for existing homes strongly
influences sales of new homes. In addition, both new and existing home sales generate
purchases of furniture, appliances, and other house furnishings, which is a secondary stimulus
to the economy.
Home sales are sensitive to changes in economic conditions related to employment, personal
income and saving, interest rates, housing starts, housing affordability index, and mortgage
delinquency and foreclosure. Although housing is a necessity of living, home sales are highly
cyclical because households are most likely to purchase a home during prosperous times when
they can best afford it, but they tend to defer a home purchase during depressed times when
they can least afford it (Stephenson, 2010).
16 It’s commonly known as C25.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
The new privately owned one-family house sold17 (C25) is recognized as great indicator for
economy. The Housing Sales Survey is conducted by the Bureau of the Census under contract
with the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales of single-family homes
were 250,000, according to the new monthly data18 in February 2011. Compared to five years
ago, 1,061,000 in 2006 were decreased by 76%. What are the causes to the dramatic decline
of number of C25? The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline
of number of C25 in US.
2.LITERATURE REVIEW
A large number of studies on the housing market have been undertaken recently. In recent
years, researchers have devoted much of their effort to identify factors that determine the
housing market mechanism (Sander and Testa 2009; Lyytikäinen, 2009; Fratantoni and
Schuh, 2003; Taylor, 2007; Bradley, Gabriel, and Wohar, 1995; Vargas-Silva, 2008). Many
factors have been cited (Ewing and Wang, 2005; Baffoe-Bonnie, 1998; Huang, 1973; Thom,
1985) as sources of housing market dynamics; among these, housing price (Rapach and
Strauss, 2009) and housing starts (Lyytikäinen, 2009; Ewing and Wang, 2005; Puri and
Lierop, 1988; Huang, 1973) play a very important role.
Rising home prices would tend to result in a decrease in the quantity demanded for housing.
However, as Campbell and Cocco (2007) found, a positive relationship may exist if rising
home prices increase the perceived wealth of house holds, or lead to relaxed borrowing
constraints. Their work also suggested that a reverse causality could result, with relaxed
borrowing constraints increasing housing demand and therefore prices. Goodwin (1986) noted
that inflation –distorted home prices may actually increase demand by acting as inflation
hedges, with homeowners using increased home equity to compensate for rising prices in
other areas.
Unemployment, by lowering a person’s income, would tend to dampen the demand for new
housing. Literature concerning the effects of unemployment on housing have largely ignored
this simple assumption and instead focused on the effect homeownership has on
unemployment. Oswald (1996) found that a 10 percent increase in homeownership increased
unemployment by 2 percent. A study using Spanish data by Garcia and Hernandez (2004) that
included extensive demographic variables concerning age, income and marital status found
that the previous literature was not relevant for the Spanish market, where high
homeownership rates were negatively correlated to unemployment.
17 Measures of new-home sales and of new homes available for sale are prepared monthly by the
Bureau of the Census in the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development.
18 Gretl is an open-source statistical package, mainly for econometrics. The name is an acronym for
Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library. Though it can't be considered as a generalpurpose statistical software (its main functions are time series analysis, regression analysis and
various econometric tests), it is very useful thanks also to its perfect integration with R. and with two
other statistical packages used in seasonal adjustement: Tramo-Seatss and X-12-Arima
(http://freestatistics.altervista.org/en/reviews/gretl.php;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretl#cite_note-3).
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Inflation can produce a number of effects on the housing market. By increasing the price of
housing, inflation can be assumed to reduce the demand for housing in inflationary times. Yet
if used as an inflation hedge, housing demand may actually increase with inflation (Goodwin,
1986). The tax deductible nature of nominal rates of mortgage interest can actually lower the
real cost of capital and therefore stimulates demand and homeownership (Rosen and Rosen,
1980), especially given the fact that capital gains are not taxable for first-time home sales.
Kearl’s (1979) often cited work stated that inflation’s effect on housing costs serves to lower
housing demand, while Feldstein and Summers (1978) observed that inflation decreases
housing’s attractiveness as an investment. Hendershott (1980) confirmed the negative
relationship between inflation and housing demand, and found that carrying costs were much
more important in determining this demand than capital gains.
According to Follain (1982), a 1 percent increase in the anticipated inflation rate reduced
homeownership by more than three percentage points for all households with a larger effect
occurring for non-elderly married couples. Complicit in this finding was the result that higher
interest rates necessarily constrain borrowing. Homeownership usually necessitates
borrowing, making the interest rate a key factor in the demand for housing. Aspergis (2003)
stated that interest rates were the most important factor influencing housing demand,
outweighing both inflation and unemployment as an explanatory variable which reinforced a
conclusion suggested by Goodwin (1986), among others. Feldstein and Summers (1978)
noted that the tax deductibility of mortgage interest plays a role in increasing the real interest
rate, with cost depreciation lowering it. Their work also confirmed the Fisher effect link
between inflation and nominal interest rates, with the two variables working together to either
increase or decrease housing demand.
3.DATA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Few studies have looked at the factors which caused the decline in the newly one family
houses sold (C25) in US. The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the
decline of number of the newly one-family houses sold in US. For this reason, our dependent
variable is the new privately owned one-family house sold.
People have a tendency to buy a house when the mortgage rate is low. Historically, the new
home sales usually have a lagged reaction to changing mortgage rates. Therefore, our first
independent variable is long–term mortgage rate. Our prediction to the sign of the slope
should be negative.
We think people’s income should be another cause to C25. Following the same idea, the
unemployment rate will also capture people’s expectation about their future income. If people
lose their job, logically, they will not risk borrowing a 30 years mortgage.
Another rational thought would be a C25 increase when population increases. So, population
in United States is our fourth independent variable.
A principle of microeconomics assumes that, if all other factors are equal, as the price of a
product or service goes up, demand for that product or service declines. Conversely, if the
price declines, demand goes up. Finally, we take the House Price Index for the United States
as our last independent variable.
Thus, our independent variables include 30 years mortgage rate, real personal income
(seasonal adjusted), unemployment rate, population, and house price index.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
After determining our independent variables, we tried to search proper data to answer our
question. The sample period is a time series of monthly data beginning February 1, 1980 and
ending February 1, 2011. It contains 31 years and a total of 373 data sets. Data are collected
from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic research database.
The reason why we have chosen Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic research
database as our resource is twofold. First, most the data sets come with a nice graph which is
a good source for visualization. Second, all the data sets have a downloading option in excel.
This option made our data input session smooth. However, there are still some problems we
have encountered during the data gathering process. Variables such as mortgage rate, income,
and unemployment rate are collected monthly. But the house price index is collected
quarterly; the population is collected annually. In order to have the same statistical
measurement, we duplicated the last two variables in a respective monthly time series.
Before we started to perform any test, we made some prediction about our variables’ slope
sign and the significance of the variables. We predicted that the slopes of real personal
income and a population should be positive. It makes sense when incomes increase people
have more money to consume. Similarly, population increase should lead to more people
needing houses. We also predicted that the slopes of mortgage rate, unemployment rate, and
price index should be negative. As mortgage rates increase, people tend to borrow less to
purchase houses. When a high unemployment rate occurs, people are more likely to have
lower income expectation. The house price index is the average house price for a given
period. Normally, we expect that a price increase leads to a demand decrease. That is the
reason why the last three slopes are negative.
4.EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
We used Gretl19 as a tool to perform our entire statistics tests. The first test that we run was
the Ordinary Less Squares (OLS). We generate a multiple regression model which include our
dependent variable, Housesold and our independent variables, HPIndex(β1), Mortgage(β2),
Population(β3), Real personal income(β4), and Unemployment(β5). The result of Ordinary
Less Squares model is shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Ordinary Less Squares model using observations 1-373
(Dependent variable: Housesold)
coefficient
std. error
t-ratio
p-value
const
2500.60
806.541
3.100
0.0021 ***
HPIndex
0.698577
0.592120
1.180
0.2388
Mortgage
-20.3564
7.08586
-2.873
0.0043
19Single-family homes are unattached houses and townhouses, including individually owned and
operated housing units as well as single-family townhouse condominiums. Currently, some 66
percent of all U.S. housing consists of single or one-family homes (Listokin, D. and Burchell, R.W.,
Housing (shelter), Microsoft® Student 2009 [DVD], Redmond, WA: Microsoft Corporation, 2008).
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
***
Population
RPIncome
-5.68910
4.53039
0.0380852
-1.256
0.0735233
Unemployment
033 ***
-81.4594
6.11404
Mean dependent var
721.3190
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
177.8091
11603099
S.E. of regression
0.2100
0.5180
-13.32
R-squared
0.444071
0.451543
Adjusted R-squared
F(5, 367)
46
60.43004
P-value(F)
0.6048
2.63e-
238.4758
7.86e-
Log-likelihood
-2458.645
Akaike criterion
4929.289
Schwarz criterion
4952.819
Hannan-Quinn
4938.633
Rho
0.959309
Durbin-Watson
0.087015
Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 5 (RPIncome)
Housesold=2,500.6+0.699HPindex-20.356Mortgage-5.689Population+0.038RPincome81.459Unemployment
According to the Table 1, two variables, mortgage rate and unemployment rate are significant
at 1% confidence level (p-value). The Gretl result also shows that the R2 is 0.452. The
interpretation of R2 is the proportion of the variable explained by the regression model. In this
case, we can use our five independent variables to explain 45% of the reason why the new
house sold.
There are some surprises due to the sign of the slopes. Initially, we predicted the coefficient of
population should be positive since more people need more houses. Nevertheless, the
coefficient of the population in the OLS model is about -5. And our prediction for house price
index coefficient is negative, but here it is positive 0.699. We need to continue a further
investigation of this model or our data sets. Before we make any conclusion, we should
interpret the OSL model first.
The coefficient for the constant is 2,500. It means that when all the independent variables are
zero, the number of houses sold is 2,500, holding all other variables constant. The
interpretation doesn’t have much economic meaning in this case.
The coefficient for the 30-year Mortgage (β2) rate is negative 20.356. The p-value for the β2
is 0.0043. It shows that the β2 is significant at 1% confidence level. The coefficient for the
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
unemployment (β5) is negative 81.459. The p-value for β5 is smaller than 0.001. We can say
that with 99% confidence level that the unemployment variable is significant. The p-value is
0.2388 for β1. It means that this variable is not significant at even the 10% confidence level.
The coefficient for real personal income is 0.038 and the p-value is 0.605.
In order to test the monthly effects, we include 11 month dummy variables in our new model.
Since our data is time series, we notice that our Durbin-Watson statistic is equal to 0.084. We
also performed a Durbin-Watson test to check the autocorrelation error in the model. Table 2
shows the OLS, using observations for 1980:02 - 2011:02.
Table 2: Ordinary Less Squares model using observations 1980:02 - 2011:02
const
HPIndex
Morate
Population
RPIncome
Unemployee
dm1
dm2
dm3
dm4
dm5
dm6
dm7
dm8
dm9
dm10
dm11
Mean dependent var
Sum squared resid
R-squared
F(16, 356)
Log-likelihood
Schwarz criterion
rho
Durbin-Watson statistic
Dependent variable: Housesold (T = 373)
coefficient
std. error
t-ratio
2657.05
868.735
3.059
0.659071
0.607389
1.085
-21.1217
7.30748
-2.890
-6.51837
4.92045
-1.325
0.0499770
0.0790419
0.6323
-81.2761
6.21222
-13.08
-26.2139
45.8000
-0.5724
-25.4406
45.7532
-0.5560
0.327942
47.4696
0.006908
-4.43171
47.3711
-0.09355
-3.23851
46.5742
-0.06953
-0.805373
46.6899
-0.01725
2.85291
46.3886
0.06150
-8.65891
46.2479
-0.1872
-6.80871
46.2805
-0.1471
-6.62623
46.1451
-0.1436
-8.69124
45.9089
-0.1893
721.3190
S.D. dependent var
11572504
S.E. of regression
0.452989
Adjusted R-squared
18.42562
P-value(F)
-2458.152
Akaike criterion
5016.971
Hannan-Quinn
0.960583
Durbin-Watson
0.0870146
p-value
p-value
0.0024 ***
0.2786
0.0041 ***
0.1861
0.5276
3.30e-032 ***
0.5674
0.5785
0.9945
0.9255
0.9446
0.9862
0.9510
0.8516
0.8831
0.8859
0.8500
238.4758
180.2971
0.428405
1.24e-37
4950.305
4976.777
0.084113
0
According to the Durbin-Watson test, p-value is equal to zero shows that the model has
autocorrelation problem. We should correct the model with a proper statistical method. Since
the Durbin-Watson statistic equal to 0.087, it shows a positive first order autocorrelation.
The following result is the Prais-Winsten correction model, here we took lag-2 time period.
Comparing to our lag-1 period result, the lag-2 period has a DW result closer to 2. This is the
reason why we took lag-2 time period. Table 3 shows the Prais-Winsten correction model.
Table 3: Prais-Winsten, using observations 1980: 04 - 2011: 02
const
HPIndex
HPIndex_1
HPIndex_2
Morate
Morate_1
270
Dependent variable: Housesold (T = 371)
Coefficient
std. error
t-ratio
-205.993
239.504
-0.8601
-0.137471
1.03831
-0.1324
0.122039
1.34883
0.09048
-0.257960
1.01868
-0.2532
-29.3433
9.40833
-3.119
-3.93193
22.0249
-0.1785
p-value
0.3903
0.8947
0.9280
0.8002
0.0020***
0.8584
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Morate_2
32.0894
15.5183
2.068
Population
-1.35884
3.21593
-0.4225
Population_1
6.66001
4.68142
1.423
Population_2
-4.20546
3.35179
-1.255
RPIncome
0.0493773
0.0445178
1.109
RPIncome_1
-0.111914
0.0587686
-1.904
RPIncome_2
0.0560686
0.0457059
1.227
Unemployee
1.68362
15.3669
0.1096
Unemployee_1
29.2876
23.5791
1.242
Unemployee_2
-28.4143
15.1497
-1.876
Statistics based on the rho-differenced data:
Mean dependent var
722.4717
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
734764.0
S.E. of regression
R-squared
0.965114
Adjusted R-squared
F(17, 353)
827.8281
P-value(F)
rho
-0.038935
Durbin-Watson
Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 20 (HPIndex_1)
0.0394**
0.6729
0.1557
0.2104
0.2681
0.0577*
0.2207
0.9128
0.2150
0.0615*
238.5867
45.62329
0.963434
2.0e-272
2.076334
After the Prais-Winsten correction (Table 3), we noticed that the Durbin-Watson statistic is
2.076. It means that the autocorrelation error is very low. In this new model, current mortgage
rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag -1time period is significant at 5% level;
both real personal incomes at lag-1 time period and unemployment rate at lag-2 time period
are significant at 10% level.
The new R Square, 96%, is much higher than the OLS model. It also has a lower t-ratio.
These indications might reveal a multicollinearity relationship existing among the
independent variables. When a multicollinearity problem exists in this model, it is possible
that each of the individual coefficients may be individually insignificant, but the joint effect
may have a significant impact on the dependent variable. Since some independent variables in
this model are not significant, we decided to perform a Wald-test to test the joint effect of
these factors: Price index, real personal income, Unemployment rate, and population. Ho: β1=
β2= β3=β5=β7= β8=β9=β10=β12=β13=β14=0; H1: at least one of the β is not zero.
The Wald-test result is below:
Wald-test formula:
F = [(Essr-Essu) / m]/ {ESS / [N − (k + 1)]}
Test statistic:
F (12, 353) = 1.94718, with p-value = 0.0282136
Since the p-value of the Wald-test is 0.028, we do have enough evidence to reject the nonhypothesis at 5% confidence level. In another word, the joint effects of the non-significant
variable are great than zero. Given the result of Wald test, we should continue an investigation
the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Therefore, we carried on a series of
Auxiliary Regressions. By using Auxiliary regressions, we can compute VIF which is a
measure of the effect of multicollinearity on the variance parameter estimates. The auxiliary
regression and VIF result is presented in Table 4.
Table 4: The Auxiliary regression and VIF result
In-Variables
VIF
In-Variables
VIF
271
HPIndex
Mortgage
PoPula
RPI
Unemp
433.35
150.01
188.52
238.63
105.828
HPIndex_1
Mortgage_1
Popula_1
RPI_1
Unemp_1
2084.58
392.72
2093.87
1798.31
213.71
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
In-Variables
VIF
HPIndex_2
Mortgage_2
Popula_2
RPI_2
Unemp_2
1378.97
136.64
1236.1
1208.83
103.95
High VIFs suggest the presence of a multicollinearity problem. When VIF>30 usually
indicates a sever multicollinearity. The VIF results for all the variables are great than 30. It
means that all the variables are highly correlated. It also means that we have a small sample
size.
5.CONCLUSION
A house is durable goods and a necessity to most people. The purpose of this paper is to
analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. The study found that the
coefficient for the 30-year Mortgage (β2) rate is negative 20.356. It indicates when the
interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold
decreases by 20 thousand, holding all other variables constant. This is not a surprise result for
this regression analysis. The mortgage rate plays a critical role in house market. The 30-year
mortgage rate decreases more than 50% from 13% in the1980s to 5%-7% in the 2000s. At the
same time, the number of houses sold increases about 50% from 541,000 in the 1980s to
1,000,000 in 2006, before the 2007 recession.
The coefficient for the unemployment (β5) is negative 81.459. It indicates when the
unemployment rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold
decreases 81 thousand, holding all other variables constant. This result proves our prediction
in the sign of the slope. New houses sold and labor markets tend to go together. When the
unemployment rate is low, people have a positive expectation for their future income. These
expectations will strengthen the house market. Similarly, when a large number of people lose
their jobs, the house market will move slowly. It’s also true that these two factors are strong
indicators for the economy. Currently, we have a slow house market and a low employment
rate.
One of the shocking results is the positive sign of coefficient for the house price index (β1).
As we explained previously, we thought when price goes up the demand should go down. But
it doesn’t fit in this case. One possible explanation is that this is all a function of rising
demand and the rising prices for houses simply reflects the rising demand and the inadequate
supply of new construction for homes. The second possibility is that rising prices actually
cause an increase in demand. This is because the purchase of a house has two components: the
usefulness of the house as a place to live, and the anticipated future income to be obtained
from selling the house later at a higher price. Rising home prices increase buyers' expectation
of future profits from selling their houses, so they are willing to pay more for a house.
The coefficient for real personal income is 0.038 and the p-value is 0.605. This result
indicates that income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not significant. This
may due to the unemployment rate variable which captures most income effects. In another
way, it shows that real personal income and unemployment have a high correlation. For the
population variable, the coefficient is a negative number. Even though the p-value indicates
that this result is not significant, we still couldn’t figure out the cause of this negative relation.
This may be like those weird results that we never understand.
In order to test the monthly effects, we include 11 month dummy variables in our new model.
The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has significant effects.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
However, from March to July the slopes of the months have positive or lower negative
effects. It means that these few months have more houses sold than other months.
Consequently, it’s impossible to determine all the causes to the number of new house sold
since many factors are interrelated. However, through our series of statistical tests, we could
be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag
one time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag one time period
and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant at 10% level.
REFERENCES
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intermediation, and Housing Activity. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 27(2), 476497.
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Application of Generalized Impulse Response Analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 12(3),
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 61-109.
Follain J.R. Jr (1982) Does inflation affect real behavior: the case of housing, Southern
Economic Journal, Vol. 48 No. 3, pp. 570-82.
Fratantoni M. and Schuh S. (2003) Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional
Markets, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(4), 557-589.
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homeownership: evidence from Spain, Urban Studies, Vol. 41 No. 3, pp. 563-78.
Goodwin T.H. (1986) Inflation, risk, taxes, and the demand for owner-occupied housing,
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Hendershott P.H. (1980) Real user costs and the demand for single family housing, Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, pp. 401-52.
Huang D.S. (1973) Short-Run Instability in Single-Family Housing Starts, Journal of the
American Statistical Association, 68(344),788- 792.
Kearl J.R. (1979) Inflation, mortgage, and housing, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87
No. 5, pp. 1115-38.
Lyytikäinen, T. (2009) Three-rate property taxation and housing construction, Journal of
Urban Economics, 65(3), 305-313.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Oswald A. (1996) A conjecture on the explanation for high unemployment in the
industrialized nations: part I, Warwick Economics Research Paper 475, University of
Warwick, Coventry, pp. 197-206.
Puri A.K. and Lierop J.V. (1988) Forecasting Housing Starts, International Journal of
Forecasting, 4, 125-134.
Rapach D.E. and Strauss J.K. (2009) Differences in housing price forecastability across US
states, International Journal of Forecasting, 25(2), 351-372.
Rosen, H.S. and Rosen, K.T. (1980) Federal taxes and homeownership: evidence from time
series, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 88 No. 11, pp. 59-75.
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Corporate Environmental Reporting: Approaches And Challenges
Yasemin Köse
Bulent Ecevit University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences
Business Department, Accounting and Finance
67100, Zonguldak, Turkey
E-mail:yekose@gmail.com
Abstract
Sustainable development issue have become increasingly important to a range of stakeholders
and attention has focused on the environmental impacts of corporate activities. Within this
context, investors and other stakeholders demand for reliable and accurate information
regarding environmental performance. Thus sustainable or environmental reporting has arisen
as a challenging and attractive growth area for accounting professionals (Bell and Lehman
1999). One of the most challenging issue in environmental reporting is how and what
corporations should report to meet demands of various stakeholders.
Reporting about environmental issues may embrace information both in traditional financial
reports and in any other reports. For environmental reporting, guidelines have been published
by various parties since the beginning of the nineties (IIIEE Report 2002). Considerable
274
�
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Extent
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1303
Title
A name given to the resource
The Factors Which Caused The Decline In The Amount Of The Newly One Family Houses Sold In Us
Author
Author
Ali , Cüneyt Çetin
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
The new privately owned one-family house sold (C25) is recognized as great indicator for economy. The monthly data in February 2011 was 250,000 houses sold. Compared to five years ago, 1,061,000 in 2006 were decreased by 76%. What are the causes to the dramatic decline of number of C25? The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. Therefore, in this study, dependent variable is the new privately owned one-family house sold. Independent variables include 30 years mortgage rate, real personal income, unemployment rate, population, and house price index. The results indicate when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases by 20 thousand. When the unemployment rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases 81 thousand, holding all other variables constant. We thought when price goes up the demand should go down. But it doesn’t fit in this study. Income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not significant. It shows that real personal income and unemployment have a high correlation. For the population variable, the coefficient is a negative number. Even though the p-value indicates that this result is not significant, we still couldn’t figure out the cause of this negative relation. The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has significant effects. However, from March to July the slopes of the months have positive or lower negative effects. Consequently, it’s impossible to determine all the causes to the number of new house sold since many factors are interrelated. However, through our series of statistical tests, we could be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag one time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag one time period and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant at 10% level. Keywords: house sold, mortgage rate, income level, unemployment rate, population increases, house price index
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b2ea08904a04f37dbebb17b4363575ae.pdf
cd2e4b4193d090dce8754626c24241e7
PDF Text
Text
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Kundur, D. and Hatzinakos, D. (1998) Digital watermarking using multiresolution wavelet
decomposition. Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, 2969-2972.
Langelaar, G., and Lagendijk, R. (2001) Optimal differential energy watermarking of dct
encoded images and video. IEEE Transactions on image Processing, 148–158
Xia, X., Boncelet, C., and Arce, G. (1997) A Multiresolution Watermark for Digital Images.
Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Image Processing, vol. I, 548-551.
Investigation Of Seismic Performance Of Existing Building Strengthened With Cfrp
Ali Demir1, Hakan Başaran2, Duygu Dönmez Demir3
1Department of Civil Engineering, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
2Department of Turgutlu Vocation School, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
3Department of Mathematics, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey
Abstract
In this study, the seismic performance of the Merkez Efendi hospital building was determined
with CFRP strengthening methods according to the Turkish Earthquake Code-2007. Firstly,
the building was considered with the masonry walls and without masonry walls and the effect
of the masonry walls to the performance of the building was investigated. Afterwards, the
building was strengthened with CFRP plates to get the required seismic performance level.
Consequently, the seismic performances of the hospital building were compared for these
three cases.
Keywords: Strengthening, Masonry Wall, CFRP, Seismic Performance
1.INTRODUCTION
Buildings are subjected to earthquake, wind, fire etc. during their lifetimes. Sometimes,
addition of a story and change in the purpose of using occur. For these reasons, the
performances of the buildings should be investigated according to the present earthquake
codes of the countries. If the performance of the building is insufficient, it must be
rehabilitated. The Turkish Earthquake Code-2007 (TEC-2007) gives alternative rehabilitation
methods. One should choose the most suitable method for buildings. Chapter 7 of TEC-2007
entitled “Assessment and Strengthening of Existing Buildings” and sets standards for
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
assessment and rehabilitation of existing buildings (Sucuoglu 2006). Recently, there have
been some studies about linear and non-linear procedures in TEC-2007 and concluded that
results of linear procedures are more conservative than non-linear ones (Sengoz 2007, Tuncer
et al. 2007, Kalkan and Kunnath 2007).
In this study, the seismic performance level of the Merkez Efendi hospital building with
and without masonry walls is determined according to TEC-2007. The some masonry walls
are strengthened with CFRP plates for rehabilitation of building. The capacity curves and
performance levels of the strengthened buildings are determined with incremental static
pushover analysis and compared.
2.DESCRIPTION OF THE HOSPITAL BUILDING
The hospital building has ground floor and three stories. The height of the ground floor is
3.70 m and the heights of the other floors are 3.20 m. The building has dimensions 34.90 m
by 14.70 m in plan. The building has two shear walls, columns and beams (Fig.1). The
building is situated in the 1.seismic zone and Z3 local site class. The standard compressive
strength of the concrete of the building is determined from the samples taken from the
columns as 11 MPa (Fig.2.b). Material properties are 220 MPa for the yield strength of both
longitudinal
and
transverse
reinforcements.
A
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60) (30/60)
(60/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
Y
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(60/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(40/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)
(30/60)(30/60)
595
(30/60)
(60/60)
280
(60/60)
X
C
595
(240/30)
1470
B
(30/60)
345
1
330
2
330
3
(240/30)
490
4
330
5
3490
330
6
330
7
330
8
330
9
Figure 1: The plan of ground and first floor of the existing building
337
D
345
10
11
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
a) The hospital building
b) The coring
Figure 2: Existing Building
The existing hospital building was modeled with the present masonry walls and without
the masonry walls and they were shown in Figure 4.a and 4.b. After the existing hospital
building is rehabilitated with CFRP plates (Fig 4.c).
The masonry walls of the hospital building were compared to trusses according to FEMA
and Mainstone who had recommend the formulas Equation 1, 2 and 3. According to TEC2007 the elasticity modulus of the masonry walls and compression strength were determined
as
1000
MPa,
1
MPa,
respectively.
338
�d
: Diagonal length
t
: Width of masonry wall
Wef
: Effective wal width
Em
: Modulus of elasticity (Masonry)
Es
: Modulus of elasticity (Frame)
R
: Bearing capacity
H`
: Length of masonry wall
H
: Story height
L`
: Net span width
L
: Span width
θ
: Angle of diagonal compressive bar
Ic
: Moment of inertia of columns
Figure 3: Diagonal compression region in masonry wall under lateral load and equivalent
virtual diagonal compressive bar element that represents the masonry wall
d H2 L2
(1)
w 0.175(1 H)0.4 H2 L2
(2)
1
E t sin 2 4
1 m
4 Es Ic h
339
(3)
�The strengthening with CFRP plates is seen in Fig.4.c. The width of the CFRP plates is
100 mm and the thickness is 1.4 mm, the modulus of elasticity of CFRP is 210000 MPa. The
three CFRP plates are bonded to the masonry walls side by side. The performance levels of
this rehabilitation are compared with the existing building performance. The connection
details of CFRP are shown in Fig.5.
H-EB
= Existing Hospital Building
H-EBMW
= Existing Hospital Building with Masonry Walls
H-CFRP
= Strengthened Hospital Building with CFRP
a) H-EB
b) H-EBMW
c) H-CFRP
Figure 4: The existing and strengthened hospital buildings with CFRP method
Bolt
Beam
Column
Masonry Wall
CFRP
Plate
Figure 5: The connection details of CFRPs
3.METHODS
340
�The incremental static pushover analysis was employed for the performance assessments.
The incremental equivalent static lateral force analysis is limited to 8 story buildings with
total height not exceeding 25 m, and not possessing torsion irregularity. Nonlinear flexural
behaviour in frame members are confined to plastic hinges, where the plastic hinge length Lp
is assumed as half of the section depth (Lp= h/2). Pre-yield linear behaviour of concrete
sections is represented by cracked sections, which is 0.40EIo for beams and varies between
(0.40-0.80)EIo with the axial stress for columns. Strain hardening in the plastic range may be
ignored, provided that the plastic deformation vector remains normal to the yield surface.
The objective is to carry out nonlinear static analysis under incrementally increasing
lateral forces distributed in accordance with the dominant mode shape in the earthquake
excitation direction. Lateral forces are increased until the earthquake displacement demand is
reached. Internal member forces and plastic deformations are calculated at the demand level.
A capacity diagram is obtained from the incremental analysis which is expressed in the “base
shear force - roof displacement” plane.
The reference design spectrum in the Code has 10% probability of exceeding in 50 years.
Based on Turkish strong motion data, it is estimated that the spectral ordinates for 50%
probability of exceeding in 50 years are half of the reference spectrum whereas the ordinates
for 2% probability of exceeding in 50 years are 1.5 times that of the reference spectrum.
Building earthquake performance level is determined after determining the member
damage states Evaluation of the investigated buildings is performed using the recently
published TEC-2007. Three performance levels, immediate occupancy (IO), life safety (LS),
and collapse prevention (CP) are considered as specified in this code and several other
international guidelines such as ATC-40, FEMA-273, FEMA-307, FEMA-356(ASCE 2000),
FEMA-440, EC-8 and NZS-2003. The rules for determining building performance in TEC2007 are given for each performance level.
Immediate Life Collapse
Occupancy Safety Prevention
IO
LS
CP
Displacement ()
Performance Levels of
the Members
Moment
Base Shear (VT)
Performance Levels of
the Building
Immediate Life Collapse
Occupancy Safety Prevention
IO
LS
CP
Plastic Rotation (
P
Figure 6: Performance levels for members and buildings
341
�4.RESULTS
Modal properties of the first mode of the building are given in Table 1. The effect of the
rehabilitation method with CFRP plates on the dynamic properties of the building are shown
in Table 1.
Table 1: Period values of the hospital building
Type of Building
H-EB
H-EBMW
H-CFRP
X direction
0.566
0.517
0.528
Y direction
0.555
0.511
0.520
The capacity curves (base shear-displacement) of the buildings are obtained for x and y
directions with incremental static pushover analysis and shown in Figure 7.
16000
14000
8000
Base Shear (kN)
Base Shear (kN)
10000
6000
4000
2000
H-EB
0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Displacement (m)
0.4
0.5
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0.00
H-EBMW
0.05
0.10
0.20
0.25
0.30
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0.00
H-CFRP
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Displacement (m)
Capacity Curve-X Direction
Capacity Curve-Y Direction
0.25
Figure 7: The capacity curves of the building
342
0.15
Displacement (m)
10000
Base Shear (kN)
12000
�According to TEC-2007, the seismic performance points of the hospital building are
obtained with incremental static pushover analysis and shown in Table 2. While the base
shears of the strengthened building and having masonry walls increase according to the
existing building without masonry walls, it is observed that displacements are same levels.
Table 2: Performance points for incremental static pushover analysis
H-EB
H-EBMW
H-CFRP
X
Y
X
Y
X
Y
6233
5703
9809
8537
8182
7470
Displacement (m) 0.073
0.050
0.071 0.053
0.070
0.050
Base Shear (kN)
According to TEC-2007, the member damage states are determined and shown in Table
3, 4 and 5. Since the existing building does not provide life safety level, it is strengthened
with CFRP plates. The seismic evaluations of the building are calculated for each state with
the TEC-2007.
Table 3: Performance level of H-EB for incremental static pushover analysis
<IO
IO
LS
CP
Story
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
1
0(%0)
0(%0)
10(%29)
19(%43)
18(%53)
12(%27)
6(%18)
13(%30)
2
0(%0)
44(%100)
1(%3)
0(%0)
14(%41)
0(%0)
19(%56)
0(%0)
3
0(%0)
44(%100)
3(%9)
0(%0)
20(%59)
0(%0)
11(%32)
0(%0)
4
0(%0)
44(%100)
20(%59)
0(%0)
14(%41)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
Evaluation
Life Safety Level X
Global performance level of the building is given for incremental static pushover analysis
in Table 3. In first story, in the direction of the applied earthquake loads, 29% of the beams
343
�and 43% of the columns are in the immediate occupancy states. 53% of the beams and 27%
the columns are life safety states in this story. 18% of the beams and 30% the columns are
collapse prevention states in this story. In this situation, the building performance does not
satisfy life safety (LS) level.
Table 4: Performance level of H-EBMW for incremental static pushover analysis
<IO
IO
LS
CP
Story
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
1
0(%0)
0(%0)
10(%29)
19(%43)
18(%53)
12(%27)
6(%18)
13(%30)
2
0(%0)
44(%100)
1(%3)
0(%0)
14(%41)
0(%0)
19(%56)
0(%0)
3
0(%0)
44(%100)
3(%9)
0(%0)
20(%59)
0(%0)
11(%32)
0(%0)
4
0(%0)
44(%100)
20(%59)
0(%0)
14(%41)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
Evaluation
Life Safety Level X
Table 5: Performance level of H-CFRP for incremental static pushover analysis
<IO
IO
LS
CP
Story
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
Beams
Columns
1
27(%79)
39(%89)
5(%15)
3(%7)
2(%6)
2(%4)
0(%0)
0(%0)
2
29(%85)
44(%100)
3(%9)
0(%0)
2(%6)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
3
34(%100)
44(%100)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
4
34(%100)
44(%100)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
0(%0)
Evaluation
344
Life Safety Level
√
�5.CONCLUSIONS
In this study, the seismic performances of the Merkez Efendi Hospital building are
determined according to the conditions of TEC-2007. Since the seismic performance of the
existing building is insufficient, CFRP method is used for the rehabilitation and the results
are compared.
As a result of the performance analyses:
The existing hospital building does not satisfy the life safety level for the earthquake
that may be 2% probability of exceeding in 50 years.
The performance analyses of the building were considered with the masonry walls
and without the masonry walls. The lateral load capacity of the building with the
consideration of the masonry walls was 57% more than that of the without masonry
walls. However, the displacements were the same for two cases.
The strengthening members (CFRP) are designed according to the minimum
standards of the TEC-2007.
Although lateral load carrying capacity of strengthened building increase, horizontal
displacement at the roof for the building is same with existing building.
As the member damage conditions are investigated, the performance of the
strengthening method according to the conditions of TEC-2007 is satisfactory.
As a result of this work:
Once the effect of the masonry walls is taken into account in structural analyses, the buildings
are designed more economic. The application of CFRP plates should be detailed very good
and applied very well. As a result, it can be said that the CFRP method recommended in the
TEC-2007 can be applied with confidence.
REFERENCES
FEMA-356 (2005) Prestandard and Commentary for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings,
Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington.
Kalkan E. and Kunnath S.K. (2007) Assessment of current nonlinear static procedures for
seismic evaluation of buildings, Engineering Structures, 29, 305–316.
Mainstone, R.J. (1974) Suplementary Note on the Stifness and Strengths of Infilled Frames,
Building Research Station, UK, Feb.
345
�Sucuoglu, H. (2006) The Turkish seismic rehabilitation code, First European Conference on
Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September.
Sengoz, A. (2007) Quantitative evaluation of assessment methods in the 2007 Turkish
Earthquake Code, Master Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, METU, Ankara.
TEC 2007, Specifications for buildings to be built in seismic areas, Turkish Earthquake Code
2007. Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, Ankara, Turkey.Tuncer O. Celep, Z. Yılmaz,
M.B. (2007) A comparative evaluation of the methods given in the Turkish Seismic Code,
WCCE–ECCE– TCCE
Joint Conference: EARTHQUAKE & TSUNAMI.
Medical Decision Support System for Diagnosis of Cardiovascular Diseases using DWT
and k-NN
Emina Alickovic, Abdulhamit Subasi
International Burch University, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies,
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mails: ealickovic@ibu.edu.ba, asubasi@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract
Heart disease is a cardiovascular disorder that is most widespread cause of death in many
countries all over the world. In this work, k-Nearest Neighbor machine learning tool was used
to classify Electrocardiography (ECG) signals and satisfactory accuracy rate was achieved in
classification of ECG signals. The model automatically classifies the ECG signals into 5
different kinds: normal, Premature Ventricular Complex (PVC), Atrial Premature Contraction
(APC), Right Bundle Branch Block (RBBB) and Left Bundle Branch Block (RBBB). The
best averaged performance over randomized percentage-split is also obtained by k-Nearest
Neighbor (k-NN) classification model. Some conclusions concerning the impacts of features
on the ECG signal classification were obtained through analysis of different parameters of
kNN. The analysis suggests that kNN modeling is satisfactory performances in at least three
points: high recognition rate, insensitivity to overtraining and computational time it takes for
classification. The combined model with DWT and k-NN achieves the good. Obtained result
shows that the suggested model have the potential to obtain a reliable classification of ECG
346
�
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Title
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Investigation Of Seismic Performance Of Existing Building Strengthened With Cfrp
Author
Author
Ali , Demir
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
In this study, the seismic performance of the Merkez Efendi hospital building was determined with CFRP strengthening methods according to the Turkish Earthquake Code-2007. Firstly, the building was considered with the masonry walls and without masonry walls and the effect of the masonry walls to the performance of the building was investigated. Afterwards, the building was strengthened with CFRP plates to get the required seismic performance level. Consequently, the seismic performances of the hospital building were compared for these three cases. Keywords: Strengthening, Masonry Wall, CFRP, Seismic Performance
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
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Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
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https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/66ca40c28e68dfd16f1271234d1f5693.pdf
315a47624bbcd19d425d173da42133af
PDF Text
Text
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
The Affecting Channels Of The Global Crisis On The South-Eastern Europe (See-7)
Countries’ Growth Performance
Ali Sen1, Huseyin Altay2
1Dumlupinar University; Kutahya; TURKEY;
2Bilecik University; Bilecik
E-mails: alisen@dumlupinar.edu.tr,haltay16@hotmail.com
SEE-7 includes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia
and Slovenia.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of the global crisis on the growth performance of SEE-7
countries. From the beginning of 2000’s to the eve of the global crisis, these economies had a
strong growth performance. Especially, increasing export, inflows of foreign direct
investments and private capital significantly contributed to their economic growth. However,
the global economic crisis adversely affected all the SEE-7. According to empirical findings
obtaining from the panel regression results, until the global crisis, the external variables
significantly contributed to growth performances of these economies. However, the impacts
of external variables on GDP growth rate reduced sharply during the crisis.
Keywords: The SEE-7 countries, growth performance, the global crisis, external variables,
panel data.
1.INTRODUCTION
While the global crisis erupted in advanced countries, it started to affect other countries after
last quarter of 2008. In the beginning of 2009, many developing countries were heavily
exposed by the global crisis. The impact of the global crisis on economic activity varied
widely across countries that have different real, external and financial vulnerability (Berkmen,
et al. 2009). At first, the most adverse affecting countries became more openness ones.
Seven of South-Eastern Countries (the SEE-7)25 also suffered from the global crisis despite
of their different monetary, exchange rate regimes, and fiscal stances (Cocozza et al., 2011).
However, these countries had some common characteristics as economically and politically.
Firstly, they were new independent countries. Most of them gained their independence in the
mid-1990s after a violent war, including destructive effects on their economies. Secondly,
their transitions from central planned to market economies occurred at the same period. In
1990s because of conditions of war and transition, these economies had to deal with both
economic and politic distresses. Finally, they had a high level of economic and financial
openness and thus exposed to the risk that came with the global crisis.
25 SEE-7 includes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and
Slovenia.
229
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Most of current economic literature, not depending on empirical evidences, claimed that the
main cause of their economic contractions in the global crisis was sharp reduction of their
export capacities and foreign capital inflows. The aim of the paper is to analyze the effect of
external variables, which many of them are components of the balances of payments, on GDP
growth rate of SEE-7 countries in 2000-2010. The paper examines the effects of external
variables in two different periods. It describes 2000-2007 as the period of pre-crisis and 20072010 as pre-crisis plus post-crisis. Thus, it is possible to compare with two different periods
with respect to impacts of external indicators. There are not enough empirical papers about
this topic in literature. The purpose of the paper is to fill this gap and provide empirical
evidence to support the claims of current literature.
At first, the impacts of the global economic turbulence were spread across SEE-7 countries by
two different channels (Cocozza et al., 2011):
First channel is deficiency of import demand of the developed countries shortening the export
capabilities of other countries. Especially, small open economies like SEE-7 the exportoriented began to slump. In addition, because the largest partner of SEE-7 countries is EU,
they incurred aftermaths of the global crisis.
Second is disappearance of their financial facilities because of turmoil in the global finance
and capital markets. Diminishing in inflows of foreign direct investments, portfolio equity and
contradiction in total reserves in SEE-7 countries reduced their growth rates. As long as
capital inflows reduced, SEE-7 countries’ growth rate having been fuelled by credit boom
decreased. In addition, as their exchange rates depreciated, their real burden of foreign
currency loans increased. Both their external debt stocks and interest payments on external
debts rapidly rose. The extent of openness to flows of foreign direct investment has been a
major cause of the transmission of the effects of the crisis to the region (Bartlett and Prica,
2011).
The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces an overview of current literature
about transmission channels of the global crisis in SEE-7 countries. In Sections, an
econometric analysis identifies the effects of external variables on GDP growth rates in SEE-7
economies. Section 4 includes conclusions.
2. AN OVERVIEW OF CURRENT LITERATURE
From the beginning of 2000s to 2008, the SEE-7 had a strong growth performance. All the
SEE-7 countries experienced rapid increase of economic output pre-crisis. The measures of
economic stability and restructuring seriously contributed to this achievement (Nero, 2010).
In addition, increasing their facilities of exports and financial sources integrated them into the
global economic system and provided a significant contribution of their growth performances.
As a result, in the period of 2000-2007, they had an average growth rate about 4.9 % (Table
1). In 2008-2010, the same rate reduced 0.9 %. Investments, remittances, industrial
production, foreign exchange reserves and employment rates have fallen sharply. As a result,
growth has slowed down (Ismail and Sahin, 2009). Especially, Slovenia, Croatia and
Montenegro further suffered from the crisis.
Table 1. Growth Rates, (%)
2000
230
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
5.5
Croatia
Macedonia
Montenegro
Serbia
3.8
4.5
3.1
5.3
Kosovo
Slovenia
4.3
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
2001
4.4
3.7
-4.5
1.1
5.3
27.0
2.9
2002
5.3
4.9
0.9
1.9
4.1
-0.7
3.8
2003
4.0
5.4
2.8
2.5
2.7
5.4
2.9
2004
6.1
4.1
4.6
4.4
9.3
2.6
4.4
2005
5.0
4.3
4.4
4.2
5.4
3.8
4.0
2006
6.2
4.9
5.0
8.6
3.6
6.0
5.8
2007
6.8
5.1
6.1
10.7
5.4
6.3
6.9
2000-07
5.4
4.5
3.0
4.6
5.1
7.2
4.4
2008
5.4
2.2
5.0
6.9
3.8
6.9
3.6
2009
-2.9
-6.0
-0.9
-5.7
-3.5
2.9
-8.0
2010
0.8
-1.2
1.8
2.5
1.0
4.0
1.4
2008-10
1.1
-1.7
1.9
1.2
0.4
4.6
-1.0
According to Stiblar (2009), they were small and weak local capital markets, overdependence
on capital inflows from Western Europe. They were highly dependent on external inflows of
money, either capital investments or loans, and foreign financial aid. Sanfey (2010) argued
that during the past decade, SEE-7 has experienced a serious transformation such as the
progress in economic development, democratic reforms, and integration into global economic
and financial markets. On the other hand, SEE-7 countries had huge current account deficits
and thus needed foreign credit or investments. The former have high current account deficits
driven by even higher trade deficits (Gligorov and Landesmann, 2009).
Beltramello et al. (2009) described the global crisis as an “imported” crisis, because its origins
stem from countries in Western Europe and North America. Due to falling demand from key
EU trade partners, the region’s exports declined substantially. According to Risteski and
Trpkova (2009), the main channels of the crisis were trade shocks, lower remittances and
lower foreign direct investments. As a result, credit growth decelerated and domestic demand
shrunk.
According to Jerger and Knogler, (2009), there were some significant channels to spread to
SEE-7. First of them was decline of export demand as the most obvious channel through
which an economy may be affected. Decline of the demand for exports obviously became
more painful for countries with high export dependence. Export of goods and services as a
percentage of GDP in Slovenia, Macedonia and Croatia is respectively 67%, 50% and 42% in
2008. Second leading channel was a considerable amount of debt denominated in foreign
currencies. The burden of this debt increased with devaluation of the domestic currency.
Bartlett and Monastiriotis (2010) claimed that as the SEE banking systems were not directly
exposed to ‘toxic assets’, the crisis was transmitted to the region through a number of indirect
channels. These included a contraction of international trade, a sudden stop to credit growth, a
rapid fall in inflows of foreign direct investment. Over the last decade, foreign investors found
extensive opportunities, besides the banking sector, in telecommunications, energy and other
sectors opened up by privatization.
According to IMF (2009), the SEE–7 were exposed to the global crisis more than in previous
ones, because they were more integrated with the world economy through trade, FDI, and
remittances. The crisis significantly influenced these countries through reduced demand for
their exports. Rising interest rates increased debt service costs. Increased trade and financial
links with the outside world also imply greater dependence on external conditions. Because
231
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
the slowdown in global growth reduced trade, remittances, foreign direct investment, these
factors had a major impact on the SEE–7. Tightened global liquidity conditions adversely
affected financing facilities.
SEE-7 countries had developed based upon an economic model dependent on capital inflows
from abroad; with the global credit crunch adversely affected their ability to maintain this
growth strategy (UN, 2009). The rapidly expanding credit growth financed with short-term
external bank borrowing came to a sudden stop in 2008 (IMF, 2011).
Sewel (2011) argued that the crisis transmission mechanism was not the banking and financial
system. Rather the serious decline in export markets and the collapse of foreign direct
investment that had the origin of recent growth and development in the region adversely
affected their performance. Virtually all of the countries had balance of payments deficits
prior to the crisis. Generally, current account deficits are quite normal for such developing
countries in the beginning of growth. The first growth spurt is frequently financed by inflows
of investment, capital goods and equipment. Moreover, their physical capital legacy had
already become old largely. Thus, they needed new enormous investment facilities as both
physical and financial capital stock (Gallego, 2010). Until the global crisis, the availability of
export facilities and significant capital inflows for SEE-7 have helped finance their growth
spurt (Sewel, 2011).
Jovicic (2009) studied the relationship between the degree of trade integration to the EU
market and the timing and intensity of the onset of the crisis effects among the Western
Balkan countries. She found that while those with a high degree of trade integration
experienced the crisis sooner, those with a lower degree of integration experienced a larger
decrease in production.
3. ECONOMETRIC MODEL AND RESULTS
The dataset is composed of annual data for SEE-7 countries, which are Croatia, Serbia,
Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia from 2000 to 2010.
Data was collected from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI). The
objective of our empirical model is to investigate the impacts of external variables on GDP
during the global crisis and pre-crisis. To compare crisis period with pre-crisis period it is
analyzed 2000-2007 and 2000-2010 separately. The aim is to examine in both period data set.
Data set consists of 10 variables. The dependent variable is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as
change of percentage. As share of percent of GDP the independent variables are Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI), Private Capital Flows (PCF), Portfolio Equity (POE), Total
Reserves (TOR), Export of Goods and Service (EXP), Import of Goods and Service (IMP),
Official Exchange Rate (OER), External Debt Stocks (EDS), and Interest Payments on
External Debt (IPE).
The paper has four different models analyzing the impacts of external variables on GDP
growth rate.
(2)
(3)
(4)
232
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
(5)
To estimate models, it is used OLS method. Firstly, to eliminate the problem of poisson
regression, unit roots is tested for each variable. Levin, Lin, Chu (LLC) and Im, Pesaran, Shin
(IPS) unit root results are in Table 2. According to Table 2, all variables are stationary in first
level I(1).
Table 2. The Results of Panel Unit Root Test
Levin, Lin, Chu
Im, Peseran, Shin
Variables
t statistic Results W statistic Results
-1,734**
I(1)
-1,435*
I(1)
GDP
***
**
-4,056
I(1)
-1,953
I(1)
FDI
-3,065***
I(1)
-1,386*
I(1)
PCF
**
***
-1,879
I(1)
-2,372
I(1)
POE
-5,083***
I(1)
-2,471***
I(1)
TOR
***
**
-4,199
I(1)
-1,825
I(1)
EXP
**
*
-1,665
I(1)
-1,206
I(1)
IMP
-5,298***
I(1)
-4,949***
I(1)
OER
***
**
-3,044
I(1)
-1,777
I(1)
EDS
-5,331***
I(1)
-3,104***
I(1)
IPE
Secondly, it is investigated whether the problems of autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity.
The availability of autocorrelation problem is tested by Wooldridge test; the availability of
heteroskedasticity problem is analyzed by Wald test. In models it is implemented Estimated
Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) to eliminate autocorrelation problem. White’s cross
section coefficient covariance method is applied to eliminate heteroskedasticity problem.
Thirdly, it is determined the method (fixed effects or random effects) to estimate the models
using Hausman test. Finally, in estimating the models, it is analyzed two different periods
(2000-2007 and 2000-2010) separately (Table 3 and Table 4).
Table 3. The Results
2000-2007
Variables
FDI
PCF
POE
TOR
EXP
IMP
OER
EDS
233
Model
1
Model
2
2000-2010
Model
3
Model
4
Model
1
21.648*
(1.897)
-18.975
(-0.807)
-29.576***
(-2.888)
-21.425
(-1.255)
3.515
3.864
(1.257)
-2.580
(-0.362)
-5.199***
(-2.860)
0.767
(0.133)
-2.507**
(-2.677)
-0.299
(-0.614)
-15.80*
(-1.725)
6.400**
-0.016
(-0.002)
4.933
(0.536)
-8.658**
(2.167)
-8.248
(-1.565)
-1.626
(-1.579)
-0.630
(-0.998)
-10.962
(-1.095)
Model
2
Model
3
Model
4
-7.444
5.240
(1.355)
1.366
(0.138)
-16.367**
(-1.097)
-8.099
(0.133)
11.939
(1.216)
4.124
(0.758)
-9.734
(-1.288)
-5.511**
19.800
(0.874)
-3.283**
(-2.290)
-22.307
(-1.463)
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
0.813
0.809
(1.228)
-1.493
(-0.202)
0.803
Adj R
0.787
0.788
0.788
0.832
0.105
0.131
0.102
0.347
F statistic
N
D-W
Woolridge
test
Wald test
Hausman
test
0.000
42
2,079
0.000
42
2.108
0.000
42
2.217
0.000
42
2.225
0.043
63
2.194
0.015
63
2.147
0.024
63
2.029
0.000
63
2.021
0,003
0,007
0,001
0,005
0,001
0,005
0,001
0,004
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
RE
RE
RE
RE
RE
RE
RE
RE
IPE
R2
2
(2.187)
4.389
(0.985)
0.873
0.177
0.187
(-0.960)
-32.843
(-1.173)
0.145
(-2.063)
-8.676
(-1.042)
0.452
* Significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%; t values in brackets.
Table 3 shows results from panel OLS regressions for SEE-7 countries in two different
periods that are 2000-2007 and 2000-2010. It is estimated four models for each period. Model
1 includes four variables that foreign direct investment, private capital flows, portfolio equity
and total reserves. Model 2 consists of three variables that are export, import and official
exchange rate. Model 3 comprises only two variables that are external debt stock and interest
payments on external debt. Model 4 have all variables in other models.
Although, for each variable, it is not obtained enough significant results from the panel
regressions, these models reveal a striking empirical evident coinciding with main hypothesis
of this paper. Adjusted R2 has higher values in 2000-2007 than 2000-2010 does. In other
words, the models for 2000-2007 have more explanatory power than 2000-2010 do. The
effects of external variables on GDP growth rate in the SEE-7 countries are further in precrisis period. From 2000 to 2007, in other words until the global crisis, the external variables
contributed to growth performances of these economies. However, the impacts of external
variables on GDP growth rate naturally reduced sharply during the crisis. For example, in
model 4 including all variables, while adjusted R2 is 0.832 for 2000-2007, the same value is
only 0.347 for 2000-2010.
4. CONCLUSIONS
The impacts of the global crisis were spread across SEE-7 countries by two different
channels. First of contagion channels of the global crisis is deficiency of import demand of
the developed countries shortening the export capabilities of other countries. Second of them
is disappearance of their financial facilities because of turmoil in the global finance and
capital markets.
The paper examines the effects of external variables on GDP growth rate in the SEE-7 in two
different periods. The first is 2000-2007 as the period of pre-crisis. The second period is
2007-2010 as pre-crisis plus post-crisis. Thus, it is possible to compare with two different
periods with respect to impacts of external indicators.
According to empirical findings obtaining from the panel regression results, until the global
crisis, the external variables significantly contributed to growth performances of these
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
economies. However, the impacts of external variables on GDP growth rate naturally reduced
sharply during the crisis.
REFERENCES
Bartlett, W. and Monastiriotis V. (2010) South East Europe after the Economic Crisis: A New
Dawn or back to Business as Usual?, London School of Economics and Political Science:
LSE European Institute, London (November).
Bartlett, W. and Prica, I. (2011). The Variable Impact of the Global Economic Crisis In South
East Europe, Economic Annals, Volume LVI, No. 191 / October – December.
Beltramello, A., Cruickshank-Valencia E., and Hengel E. (2009) The Global Financial Crisis:
Preliminary Evidence in South East Europe and Responses from Governments, SEE
Investment Committee, Tuesday, 7 April Brussels.
Berkmen, P., Gelos G., Rennhack R., and Walsh J.P. (2009) the Global Financial Crisis:
Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact, IMF Working Paper,
WP/09/280), December.
Cocozza, E., Colabella, A. and Spadafora, F. (2011). The Impact of the Global Crisis on
South-Eastern Europe, IMF Working Paper WP/11/300, December.
Ergin, I. Sahin S. (2009) Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on Balkans, 1. International
Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10, Sarajevo.
Gallego, S., Gardo, S., Martin, R. Molina L., and Serena, J.M. (2010) The Impact of the
Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE)
and Latin America, Bancodespano.
Gligorov, G. and Landesmann M. (2009) What is to be done? A policy note, The Vienna
Institute for International Economic Studies.
IMF. (2009). The Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Low-Income Countries, IMF
Multimedia Services Division, March.
IMF. (2011) Republic of Slovenia: 2011 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public
Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; Staff Statement; and Statement by the
Executive Director for Slovenia, May, IMF Country Report No. 11/121.
Jerger, J. and Knogler M. (2009) The Economic and Financial Crisis in South-Eastern Europe,
International Scientific Conference: Challenges of the World Economic Crisis, Nis, October
15-16th.
Jovicic, M. (2009). The Onset of the Economic Crisis in the West Balkans. The conference on
Economic Policy and Global Recession. Belgrade, 25-27 September.
Nero, V.W. (2010) Economic and Labour Market Impacts of the Global Economic and
Financial Crisis on the Countries of the Western Balkans and Moldova, March.
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/region/eurpro/geneva/download/ecosoc_crisisimpact_westb
alkan.pdf
Risteski, S. and Trpkova M.Sc. M. (2010) Global Economic Crisis and its Impact on the
Western Balkan Countries Labor Markets, The Young Economists Journal, Vol. 1, issue 15.
Pp. 96-107.
235
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Sanfey, P. (2010) South-Eastern Europe: Lessons from the Global Economic Crisis, European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Working Paper No. 113.
Sewel, J. (2011) The Balkan Economies: Regional Roadblocks, European Distractions and
Global Crisis, NATO Parliamentary Assembly.
Stiblar, F. (2009) The Impact of the Global Crisis on Montenegro and the Western Balkans,
published by Central Bank of Montenegro.
UN. (2009) The Global Financial Crisis: Impact and Response of the Regional Commissions
The Importance Of Aphrodisias Ancient City In Sustainable Economical Development
Matcicek Zekeriya1, Pajo Aykut2
1Adnan Menderes University,Aydın,
2Kırklareli University,Kırklareli
E –mails: zekeriyamatcicek@adu.edu.tr,aykut.pajo@kirklareli.edu.tr
Abstract
Aphrodisias is an ancient city nearby Karacasu, Aydın. It was established by the name of
Goddess Aphrodit. It is a big settlement from the Bronz Age to Bizans time. It has been found
baths, agora, stadium, odeon, Aphrodit temple in arceologic excavations. Aphrodisias is
known as an important sculpturing centre in first- era, was given sculpturing education in that
term.Of all the ancient cities in Anatolia, The Stadium of Aphrodisias is one of the best
preserved.
Aphrodisias is an ancient city which is famous for its Aphrodit temple especially in Roman
age. It is one of the most important archeological places of Turkey with its well-protected
movement – buildings now. The excavations started by New York University in 1961 are
being continued today, too. The new historical sites have been found in excavations that still
last now. These historical sites have been presented in the museum of Aphrodisias.
About 125.000 tourists visit Aphrodisias ancient city each year. The visitors come from
America and European Countries mostly in spring and autumn. In other hot months, French,
Italian and Spanish people visit and Brazilian tourists have visited ancienty city lately.
Tourists who come in winter visit mostly for shopping and Aphrodisias ancient city is visited.
The avarage age of visitors is quite high. It is preferred by only the participants of cultural
tours because Aphrodisias Ancient city is visited according to cultural tourism. These tours
reachmostly beginning from İstanbul to Bursa – Çanakkale – İzmir Efes – Kuşadası – Didim
Milet and then Aphrodisias – Pamukkale Hierapolis and Antalya. In this research the variation
of tourist which visit Aphrodisias ancient city have been determined and it has also been
determined how tourists in this community spend their money. The effect of these spendings
on economical sustainable development of Turkey and the region where ancient city is has
beendetermined.
236
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Title
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The Affecting Channels Of The Global Crisis On The South-Eastern Europe (See-7) Countries’ Growth Performance
Author
Author
Ali , Sen
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
This paper analyzes the impact of the global crisis on the growth performance of SEE-7 countries. From the beginning of 2000’s to the eve of the global crisis, these economies had a strong growth performance. Especially, increasing export, inflows of foreign direct investments and private capital significantly contributed to their economic growth. However, the global economic crisis adversely affected all the SEE-7. According to empirical findings obtaining from the panel regression results, until the global crisis, the external variables significantly contributed to growth performances of these economies. However, the impacts of external variables on GDP growth rate reduced sharply during the crisis. Keywords: The SEE-7 countries, growth performance, the global crisis, external variables, panel data.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/380d8f2e762195fc101b318ef0f759cc.pdf
cf9b038012aa07e51c61ad80baff1e5a
PDF Text
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3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Hackett, M., & Dilts, D.M. (2004). A Systematic Review of Business Incubation Research.
Journal of Technology Transfer, 29, 55-82.
Kleinbaum, D.G., & Klein, M. (2005). Survival Analysis: A Self-Learning Text (2nd Ed.).
New York: Springer.
Sertkaya, D., Ata, N., & Sözer, M. T. (2005). Yaşam çözümlemesinde zamana bağlı açıklayıcı
değişkenli Cox regresyon modeli. Ankara Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Mecmuası, 58, 153-58.
Tabatabai, M. A., Bursac, Z., Williams, D. K., & Singh, K. P. (2007). Hypertabastic survival
model. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 4-40.
Karaöz, M., & Albeni, M., (2011), İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan Girişimlerin Hayatta
Kalma ve Büyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: KOSGEB İş Geliştirme Merkezleri
(İŞGEM) Üzerine Bir Araştırma. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of
Turkey (TÜBİTAK). (Issue Brief No. 109K139).
Yay, M., Çoker, E., & Uysal, Ö. (2007). Yaşam Analizinde Cox Regresyon Modeli and
Artıkların İncelenmesi, Cerrahpaşa Tıp Dergisi, 38, 139-45.
Seeking Debt Crisis And Solution In Europe
Ali Yavuz,Ceyda Şataf,Dilek Göze Kaya, Serap Gül
S.D.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Maliye Bölümü,
E-mails: aliyavuz@sdu.edu.tr, ceydasataf@sdu.edu.tr, dilekgozkaya@hotmail.com
gul_serap19@hotmail.com
Abstract
In this study, the European Union (EU) countries, the countiries of their lives go down to the
root causes of the debt crisis by making suggestions in search of solutions to the debt crisis
will be examined. Emerging in the U.S.A. mortgage market crisis in 2007, quickly spread to
the real sector from the financial sector in the years 2007-2009. And so the U.S.A. economy,
increased unemployment and stagnation in 2008 and 2009 a major problem encountered. The
economic crisis in the U.S. especially in EU countries, especially spread through strong
financial relationships. Cause of the crisi spreading, the U.S.A., its foreign trade with third
countries EU’s countries and possble recession and real income loses, narrowed. Foreign
demand for exports of goods and services of third countries. Another reason for the crisi, said
that the U.S.A. debt-based consumer spending growth can’t be prevented. E.U.’s main causes
of debt crisi, the misappropriation of resources, competition loss, and therefore can’t be seen
in this negative economic revival began participation in the Euro. Falling ineterest rates in
euro countries participating in the pre-crisis period, the total demand by facilitating increased
borrowing opportunities. GIIPS( Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries in paralel
with an increase in demand has increased in both public and private debts. Increased demand
led to an increase in the prices of goods and services increase in investment. In the last part of
study, the debt crisis of the EU countries should take measures to release the elimanation of
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
debt problems, increase the competiveness of member states and the EU, strengthning
economic governance issues within the EU will be examined.
Keywords: Global Crisis, Debt Crisis , European Union
1.INTRODUCTION
U.S.A. real estate crisis emerged in late 2008, then the real economies of Britain and the
ongoing volatility in financial markets have a devastating effect on the financial markets have
faced a crisis. Decline in total demand and the slump in financial markets has resulted in the
decline in trade volume. However, severe damage to many of this crisi has a strong economy.
The latest example of this situation in the EU, but many measures taken against some of the
effcets of the crisis be established.In this sudy, the first global crisis that emerged in the USA
and Europe that followed the debt crisis in Europe by examining the emergence debt crisis
fort he country based evaluations are performed to look for solutions.
2. Global Crisis and Its Reasons
Global crisis, emerging in U.S.A., has begun in finance, firstly in the real sector and then
spreaded to the entire economy. The reason why this crisis began is that mortgages, given in
low interest rates, was not paid back to banks in due dates. Loans not paid back both caused
finance institutions to go bankrupt and financial crisis reflected to the real sector as a result of
declining demands with shaken consumer confidince in the market ( Önder,2009:17) Because
global crisis led to the liquid and confidince problem, direct foreign investments and the
short-term money movements as portfolio investments decreased (Engin ve Yeşiltepe, 2009:
17). After the attact in U.S.A. , in 11 September of 2001, followed by a recession in economy,
the Federal Reserve System (FED) brought interest ratios down from %6,5 being in 2001 to
%3 in 2003 in order to arouse economics. This fall in interest rates reflected to the interest
rates applied to the mortgage. Since low inflation and low interest rates decreased the costs of
mortgage, the demand for this sector increased. Increasing demand brought together the
increase in the costs of home. Even tough families could not afford these costs, financial
markets gave bonded home loan to people (Kutlu ve Demirci, 2011: 122). From the 2000 till
the end of 2006, there was liquid abundance in the financial markets. The abundance of
liquide caused to given loan those people who has no income or work. After banks had
introduced the seized homes to market, the costs of homes fell down. However, the users of
credit discontinued to pay credits because of such reasons that bank loans were too higher
than home charges (Alantar, 2008: 2). The banks giving mortgage evaluated the property
before the repaying of credits and sold it to an investment bank or a mortgage institution. Not
paying back the credits, here, not only the bank that giving credit but also the institution that
buying the security suffered by. Hence, the crisis made an chain like effect. Due to the fact
that the crisis reflected to the real economy, in U.S. and Europe came about a decrease in the
rates of growth. As in the figure, since 2007, the decline of the growth rates is seen in the
developed and the developing countries (Alantar, 2008: 3-6).Trade balance deficit increasing
with the global crisis revealed the current account deficit problem. And the current account
deficit brought out the need to find out external source. It was not easy to fulfill the need of
source. Things that were done to avoid the negative effects of global crisis has caused budget
deficits and increase of loans in EU countries (Oskay, 2010: 72-73).
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
2.1. Europe Debt Crisis
Europe is the main reason in the decline of the credit scores of debt crisis countaries,
pressures in the stock market, dominant countries’ bonds and in the spread of credit debt swap
agreement. The financial staples, which are under pressure in Europe, are countries such as
Greece, Icelandic, Ireland and Portugal (Arezki vd, 2011: 3). In the Eurozone to solve the debt
crisis emerging in the spring of 2010, the money and finance policies of Economic and
Monetary Union (EMU) was not been affected (Gianviti vd., 2010: 1). Debt crisis of
Eurozone , 2010, caused big movements in yields to call while causing great changes in the
rates of Euro and other currency unit (Gianviti vd., 2010: 5). The government is generally
held responsible for crisises on account of the exceeded budget deficits to practice definite
goals in the pact of stability and growth as a part of Maastricht Treaty. The reformation
proposals of EU include the controlled financial policies and rising bank arrangements of
national governments. While the Stability and Growth Pact, Maastricht Treaty and European
Union was focusing on debt and budget deficit rates of government, they neglected the
“excessive” debt rates of private sector. This excessive debt caused crisis in the financial
markets (Stein, 2011, 199). When banking crisis came out in private sector, governments especially of countries like Ireland and Spain – undertook the dept of the private sector and
saved these banks from that debt. Taxpayers has become indebted to the foreign financiers
(Stein, 2011, 200-201). The rates of debt after crisis /GSMH has increased. Constitutional
budget deficit is more lower in Ireland and Spain than the Euro zone. The private sector has
become the main reason of debt crisis in these countaries (Stein, 2011, 202).
2.1.1. Euro Zone
EU member states, a common currency (EURo) through use of established monetary union.
However, the “ Euro ZOne” called the monetary union, because of the up heaval in recent
years has undergone some of the economic crisis. First, some countries in the euro area credit
ratings agencies has been reduced significantly. After thr Irish government bonds in Greece
and Portugal, then the degree is worthless, and this case has been brought up to the crisis
escalated. With 17 member countries, including the so-called Euro common currency, the
euro area and countries use the euro by the European Central Bank monetary policy to be
applied to a single source, including Euro 17 depending on the countries’s economies together
tightly as they could. This is the negativity coming from the other Euro countries in the
territory of one euro in facilitating the spread within a short time.However, the financial and
real sectors of the EU member states at a high level of integration between these countries and
the speed increased the levels of exposure. (Odabaş, Bahtiyar, 2011, 104). Looking at the
table in 2010 while public deficits to be reduced compared to the Euro in 2010 which took
place in 2009 while public debt has increased over the previous year. Euro area government
debt to GDP ratio was 79.3% in 2009 to 85.1 % in 2010, this rate increased to. Public deficits
in the euro area GDp ratio which is the figure of the previous year, 6.3% from 6.0% a year.
Public expenditure in 2010 compared to 2009 in the Euro 17 countries, showed a slight
decline in governemnt revenues over the same period almost unchanged. However, this table
Euro Area 17 key figures related to the general governemnt budget deficit anf debt included
ratio of debt stocks by country looking very serious budget deficits or differences emerge.(
(Odabaş, Bahtiyar, 2011, 104-105).
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Table 1: Euro Zone (17) Countries’s Public Debt Stock
Euro Zone (17)
2007
2008
2009
2010
9 035 939
9 264 270
8 970 953
9 204 316
-60 082
-188 988
-566 680
-550 481
Budget balance (% GSYİH)
-0.7
-2.0
-6.3
-6.0
Public Expenditures (%
GSYİH)
45.9
46.9
50.8
50.4
Public revenues (% GSYİH)
45.2
44.8
44.5
44.4
Public debt (milyon €)
5 984 848
6 472 881
7 116 276
7 837 207
Public debt (% GSYİH)
66.2
69.9
79.3
85.1
GDP Current Prices (milyon
€)
Budget balance (milyon €)
Kaynak: Eurostat, Provision Of Deficit And Debt Data For 2010 - First Notification,
<http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-26042011-AP/EN/2-26042011-AP-EN.PDF>,
(26.04.2011)’den uyarlanmıştır. (aktaran Odabaş, Bahtiyar, 2011, 105)
2.1.2. European Union Member Countries Debt Crises
Euro-Zone is described as surrounding countries Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the debt crisis
occurring in the second quarter of 2010 and later expanded by including Italy and Spain,
followed by a road. This situation, particularly in terms of golbal growth and financial
stability is a major risk to the Euro Area countries. (Değerli, Keleş, 2011, 2).
2.1.2.1. Crisis in Greece
Informal econmy in Greece is veryimportant in the beginning of the euro. In excess of
informality reduces tax revenues. Also in Greece in the Euro zone, while the poor
performance fort he rise in nnational income, inflation rates, the region has achieved the
highest level. For these reasons, the cost of borrowing has also risen in Greece. Euros between
2000-2008 to just over 3% inflation rate in the process of adaption illusion. Improved
macroeconomic conditions and increased foreign capital inflow in this period. Greater than
5% GDP in 1995 to 2008, net capital inflow was 100%. Paralel to the increase in domestic
demand, increasing imports increased current acoount deficit. The current account deficit was
3.7% in 1997 to 14.4% has risen up. Increased demand has increased prices and employment
costs, and this has reduced the competitiveness of Greece. Since 1997, the Euro, with 47 %
average increase in consumer prices was well above the 27% economy. Increase expected in
the IMF’s real effective Exchange rate in Greece is around % 20-30’s. In these circumstances
the loss of competititon is obvious. Along with increasing the budget deficit crisis, wit
hgrowth reversed and increased debt. National income in 2008 showed an increase of %2, 2%
by 2009 has become smaller and correspondingly reduced government revenues and the
budget deficit in 2008 was % 7.7 in 2009 to 13.6% increased. Borrowing in 2007, while % 96
of GDP in 2009 rose to %116. (Öztürk,Aras, 2011, 147.) Ireland and Spain in the government
are seen as different because of the debt crisis in Greece. The stability and Growth Pact,
Greece, Ireland and Spain the debt crisis proportions when a value is cleraly relevant. Greece,
a large fiscal deficit and the cumulative result of a large public debt and the debt crisis of
chronic macroeconomic balances is seen as the origin. The global crisis worsenend the
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
financial situation began to deterşorate şn the second half of 2007 in Greece. Greece’s credit
rating to fall in the budget predicament causes the public debt/GDP raito of 115.1% in the
euro area has been the most indebted country, Italy, and also during 2014, this ratio was
expected to continue to rise. (Stein, t.y., 210-211).
2.1.2.2. Crisis in Ireland
Ireland based on the continuous development of the construction sector growth has
accelerated since the 1990’s. Prosperity has increased the demand for the construciton sector
due to the increase in housing prices and this situation greatly enhanced. Along with
increasing global crisis of 2008, however, housing prices have fallen by 50-60% and caused
to be dragged into the crisis in Ireland. Housing loans as a result of thisi crisis, banksa re
forced to configure a distorted financial structures. 45 billion dolars in government in order to
improve the financial condition of banks has transferred a resource. This situaition has
increased government budget deficits, the impact of the crisis and economic recession, tax
revenues began to decline.
Uncertainty of the budget reduction in tax revenues in Ireland has increased even more by
compressing.(http://www.sobiad.org/eJOURNALS/dergi_EBD/arsiv/2011_2/mustafa_ozturk.
pdf, 2011, 148). Looking at the table of public deficits in the year 2010 in Ireland increased
by about twicw compared to 2009. Took place in 2010, the public debt has increased over the
previous year. While the public debt to GDP ratio in Ireland in 2009 65.6% 96.2% in 2010,
this rate rose to. If the public deficit to GDP ratio which is the figure of the previous year 14.3% from -32.4%2s was. Watching a growing trend in public expenditures, public revenues
almost unchanged over the same period. (Eurostat, 2011,5.)
Table 2 : Ireland’s Public debt stock
İrlanda
2007
2008
2009
2010
189 374
179 989
159 645
153 939
128
-13 196
-22 795
-49 903
Budget balance (% GSYİH)
0.1
-7.3
-14.3
-32.4
Public expenditures (% GSYİH)
36.7
42.8
48.2
67.0
Public revenues (% GSYİH)
36.8
35.5
33.9
34.6
Public debt (milyon €)
47 361
79 837
104 782
148 074
Public debt (% GSYİH)
25.0
44.4
65.6
96.2
GDP Current Prices (milyon €)
Budget balance (milyon €)
Source: Eurostat, Provision Of Deficit And Debt Data For 2010 - First Notification,
<http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-26042011-AP/EN/2-26042011-AP-EN.PDF>,
(26.04.2011)’den uyarlanmıştır.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
2.1.2.3. Crisis in Portugal
% 4 growth in the transition to the Euro and EU in Portugal was one of the fastest-growing
countries. Process of harmonization with euro ineterest rates fell to % 6 in Portugal. Loose
fiscal policy and low interest rates, increased consumer spending. Fixes capital investment
increased. The construction sector grew. The current account deficit zero in 1995 to 2000 was
an increase of % 9. But at the same rate did’nt increase production. Portugal’s economy did’nt
reach serious problems as Greece and Ireland’s economy until the problem reached serious
proportions. Portugal in 2001, the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact countries
unimplementing is the only country in the euro area is the prof that the recession taking place
for a long time. Portugal is a very high current account deficit and the deepening crisi in the
banking sector has led to improper practices. According to 2009 data of the country’s public
debt/ GDP or 83 and the ratio of budget deficit/ GDp ratio -10.1 or be too far from these
nembers are an indication of the Maastricht Criteria.
Stabilization program in the country is prepared to reduce budget deficits and subsequent
rejection of parliament, the Prime Minister’s resignation has led to deterioration of political
stability and credit rating agencies lowered the credit rating of Portugal. The scope of the
packet is reduced to %2 of GDP budget deficit until 2013, freezing of pensions, salaries in the
public sector with more than 1500 Euros to cut between% 5-10, health, education and local
government expenditures, such as applications for cut down on the agenda has.( Pioneer
Perspectives, 2011, s.3-7) .
3. Solutions developed as a Crisis
Payment diffciculties of the EU member states outside the euro-zone opportunities against the
financing has been established fort he creation of Fund Balance of payments. Mode of
operation of this fund will use the funds to issue bonds is colleterally member states of the
country. (Council of the European Union, 2002.1-2)
Credit Pool mechanism established. This system was created fort he use of a debt once a pool
of Greece. Euros 80 billion and 30 billion Euros of EU-funded by the IMF in a repository 110
billion euros. ( European Comission, 2011:1)
Established the European Financial Stability Mechanism. This mechanism of natural disasters
and a member of the EU member states of the country to live in their own finacial difficulties
as a result of external factors outside the control of the event was created to be used.
However, to some extent affected by external factors such as Greece and Ireland, but also
being heavily influenced by internal factors of the crisis, this mechanism is used. In this
system, credit markets on behalf of the EU member countries and made available are
provided. With this mechanism, the bodies of the EU adopted the use of resources in a tight
macro-economic stablization program brought the applicatioan requirement. This mechanisim
is temporarily formed. Instead, in 2013, will be the European Stability Mechanism. (Europe
Press Releases, 2010:1)
The European Fianancial Stability Fund was established in 2010. The purpose of the Fund’s
debt problems so that the eurozone countries and monetary union to provide temporary
financial support to maintain financial stability. Euro zone countries’ common mode of
operation of the fund launched under the guarantee is provide credit to member countried
through bonds. Mechanism of the European Financial Stability Fund, the European Financial
Stability Fund is a temporary place in 2013 will leave the European Stability Mechanism.
(Council of The European Union, 2010:1-5)
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
In 2010 decided to establish the European Stability Mechanism. This mechanism will be
operational in 2013, is an institutional structure will have a permanent nature. The debt
problems of the former is like living in Greece and Ireland was set up temporarily in order to
provide financial support to member countries of the Union. As a condition of the mechanism
of utlilizng the principle of economic adjustment programs introduced strict application. The
used slices of credit in support of the European Stability Mechanism in a difficult situaition if
necessary, may purchase bonds of the Member countries. ( Council of The european Union,
2011:1-6)
4.CONCLUSION
Since 2008, when the global economic crisis in the U.S.A. the recession that occurred, both
these adversely affected the economies of the country and the world. In the Euro ares, to
experience what the point of all the scenarios in case of Greece is focused failure to pay debts.
Uncertain consequences as a result of the union was to be exported to Greece, a crisis likely to
affcet other countries will point to an entangled state. In case of inability to pay and a possible
bankruptcy of Greece and the other euro zone countries, Greece will lead to decrease in value
of bonds. Such a possibility or even france, Italy and Spain in the troubled days spent in a
negative way. Severe effects of the crisi is happening to other Euro zone countries in order to
prevent the spread of October 27th 2011 in Brussels, EU leaders come together and have
taken concrete steps to save the euro. Greece’s debt to the leaders agreed on the reduction of
debts the banks have made their under taking losses up to %50 of the banks. Thus, banks in
Greece’s 250 billion euros in debt, is expected to be reduced to euro 102 billion. In addition,
the European Financial stability Fund resources was decided to remove 440 Billion Euros 1
trillion euros, the new fund will enter the application in November 2011 regarding the
framework agreement has been reached. Another important decision taken at the summit of
any country in the future to provide protection against losses arising from the entry of default
was recapitalizing the bank. At this point, emergency banking reforms and succesful
implementation of public finance reforma s are inevitable. Public finaces, especially the
successful implementation of the rules should be binding and obligatory for all countries.
Result in decesions taken at the summit to show the long term, so tihs context, fiscal rules
seem to be necessary tı put and to establish new institutions willbe watched on.
REFERENCES
ALANTAR, Doğan,(2008), Küresel Finansal Kriz: Nedenleri Ve Sonuçları Üzerine
BirDeğerlendirme,
http://www.finanskulup.org.tr/assets/maliyefinans/81/Dogan_Alantar_Kuresel_Finansal_Kriz
_Nedenleri_Sonuclari_MFY81.pdf, 28.02.2012)
AREZKI, Rabah, B. Candelon and A. N. R. Sy, (2011), Sovereign Rating News and
Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis, IMF Working Paper
Council Of The European Union (2002). Facility providing financial assistance for balances
of
payments,
(EC)
No
332/2002,
http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/economic_and_monetary_affairs/institutional_and_ec
onomic_framework/l25005_en.html (23.07.2011)
Council Of The European Union (2010). Extraordinary Council Meeting Economic And
Financial Affairs, 9596/10 (Presse 108), Council Of The European Union,
65
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Brussels,http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ecofin/114324.p
df, (13.07.2011)
Council Of The European Union (2011). EUCO 10/1/11 REV 1 CO EUR 6 CONCL 3,
24/25,http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/120296.pdf
(28.06.2011)
ENGİN, Ediz ve Ebru Yeşiltepe, Global Ekonomik Krizin Gölgesinde Türkiye’nin Maastricht
Kriterlerine Uyumu, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, Cilt 1, Sayı 2, ISSN: 1309-8020, 2009
European Comission (2011). Economic and Financial Affairs, The Greek Loan
Facility,http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu_borrower/greek_loan_facility/index_en.htm
(01.08.2011)
Europe Press Releases (2010). The European Stabilization Mechanism, MEMO/10/173,
Brussels,10
May
2010,
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/10/173, 13.07.2011
Eurostat, Provision Of Deficit And Debt Data For 2010 - First Notification,
<http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-26042011-AP/EN/2-26042011-APEN.PDF, 28.02.2012
Eurostat, Provision Of Deficit And Debt Data For 2010 - First Notification,
<http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-26042011-AP/EN/2-26042011-APEN.PDF>, (26.04.2011)’den uyarlanmıştır. (aktaran Odabaş, Bahtiyar, 2011, 105)
GIANVITI, François, A. O. Kruege, J. Pisani-Ferry, A.Sapir ve J.von Hagen,( 2010), A
European Mechanism for Sovereign Debt Crisis Resolution: A Proposal
KUTLU, Hüseyin Ali ve N. Savaş Demirci, Küresel Finansal Krizi (2007) Ortaya Çıkaran
Nedenler, Krizin Etkileri, Krizden Kısmi Çıkış Ve Mevcut Durum, Muhasebe ve Finansman
Dergisi, Ekim/2011
OSKAY, Cansel, (2010), Türkiye’de Dış Borçlar ve Avrupa Borç Krizinin Olası Yansıması
Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme, Bütçe Dünyası Dergisi, Sayı: 34
ÖNDER, İzzettin, (2009), Küresel Kriz ve Türkiye Ekonomisi, Muhasebe ve Finansman
Dergisi (http://journal.mufad.org.tr/attachments/article/238/2.pdf , 28.02.2012)
Pioneer
Perspectives
(2011).
The
Euro
Sovereign
Debt
Crisis,
http://us.pioneerinvestments.com/misc/pdfs/economy/perspectives_portugal_debt_downgrade
.pdf?adtrack=institutional (22.07.2011)
STEIN, Jerome L., (2011), The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe, Cato Journal, Vol. 31,
No. 2 (http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj31n2/cj31n2-2.pdf, 28.02.2012)
http://www.sobiad.org/eJOURNALS/dergi_EBD/arsiv/2011_2/mustafa_ozturk.pdf,
(22.03.2012)
66
�
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1314
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Seeking Debt Crisis And Solution In Europe
Author
Author
Ali , Yavuz
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
In this study, the European Union (EU) countries, the countiries of their lives go down to the root causes of the debt crisis by making suggestions in search of solutions to the debt crisis will be examined. Emerging in the U.S.A. mortgage market crisis in 2007, quickly spread to the real sector from the financial sector in the years 2007-2009. And so the U.S.A. economy, increased unemployment and stagnation in 2008 and 2009 a major problem encountered. The economic crisis in the U.S. especially in EU countries, especially spread through strong financial relationships. Cause of the crisi spreading, the U.S.A., its foreign trade with third countries EU’s countries and possble recession and real income loses, narrowed. Foreign demand for exports of goods and services of third countries. Another reason for the crisi, said that the U.S.A. debt-based consumer spending growth can’t be prevented. E.U.’s main causes of debt crisi, the misappropriation of resources, competition loss, and therefore can’t be seen in this negative economic revival began participation in the Euro. Falling ineterest rates in euro countries participating in the pre-crisis period, the total demand by facilitating increased borrowing opportunities. GIIPS( Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries in paralel with an increase in demand has increased in both public and private debts. Increased demand led to an increase in the prices of goods and services increase in investment. In the last part of study, the debt crisis of the EU countries should take measures to release the elimanation of debt problems, increase the competiveness of member states and the EU, strengthning economic governance issues within the EU will be examined. Keywords: Global Crisis, Debt Crisis , European Union
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f313800370077bf6c93cb34a4c7c1764.pdf
188822bd692fb155b5fd175fcf4cae38
PDF Text
Text
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
İbn Batuta Seyahatnamesi Seçmeler, Çev. İsmet Parmaksızoğlu, MEB Yay, İstanbul, 1993.
www.sebilay.org.tr, (25.04.2012).
Tuhfat-Al-Vasayâ.
Analysis of Factors Affecting the Life Satisfaction of Household Heads Living in Urban
Areas: A Case of West Mediterranean Region
Ali Riza Aktas1, Burhan Ozkan2, Onur Oku1
1Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business, Economics and Finance Dept.
2Akdeniz University, Faculty of Agriculture, Agriculture Economics Dept.
E-mails: alirizaaktas@akdeniz.edu.tr,bozkan@akdeniz.edu.tr,onuroku@akdeniz.edu.tr
Abstract
Since the early ages of history, individuals have sought life satisfaction and considered it as a
life goal. Because of this fact, the term life satisfaction has kept its importance in time and
has been the focus of many studies. Life satisfaction is seen as a positive value gained by an
individual’s own evaluation of the quality of life as a whole, therefore may be described as
subjective. Nevertheless, studies made about life satisfaction use both subjective and
objective indicators. Life satisfaction is partially conceptualized as the result of satisfaction
related to various life fields such as work, family, health, etc. and it is assumed that the
effects of environmental conditions highly help satisfaction related with life fields. When
studies about life satisfaction are taken into consideration, it is notable that the term job
satisfaction is generally emphasized. However, studies show that job satisfaction can explain
only a few of the changes in life satisfaction. In this study, it is aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads by using data from
questionnaires and Logit model. “Unclustered Single-Stage Simple Random Probability
Sampling Method” was used to apply the questionnaires to 490 household heads living in city
centers of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur. In order to determine the probability of whether the
household heads were satisfied with their lives or not, explanatory variables oriented to the
current perceptions of household heads were included to the model in the study in addition to
the demographic variables. Demographic variables were included to the model as the dummy
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variable. Logit model was estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. According
to the results of the analysis, life satisfaction of the household heads decreased with the
increase of the size of the city. Similarly, increase in education level also decreased the
probability of life satisfaction of the household heads. In addition, household heads with high
income levels were happier than the ones with lower income. Similarly, if the spouse of the
household head is either healthy, satisfied from job, or is a house wife, satisfied from
marriage, then life satisfaction is determined to be higher than the household heads without
the aforementioned spouse characteristics.
Keywords: Satisfaction, Life Satisfaction, Household Head, Logit Model, West
Mediterranean Region.
1. INTRODUCTION
Life satisfaction, in its general sense, refers to the satisfaction felt by one with regard to
his/her own life (Keser, 2005). In other words, it relates to which extent the person is pleased
with the life he/she has (Guler and Emec, 2006). Life satisfaction is the emotional response of
the person against the life defined as work, leisure and other non-work time and expresses a
general attitude towards life (Dikmen, 1995; Keser, 2005).
Life satisfaction is defined as “the positive perception of one’s own life according to the
criteria determined by himself/herself” and as the conscious and cognitive perceptions of the
person with respect to the quality of his/her own life (Gilman and Huebner, 2000).
Life satisfaction is also described as the positive value obtained when the individual evaluates
the quality of his/her life as a whole (Ozdevecioğlu and Aktas, 2007). Therefore, it is possible
to say that life satisfaction is subjective in essence as it is the product of the evaluation
conducted by the individual with regard to his/her own life. However, both subjective and
objective indicators are employed in the studies relating to life satisfaction (Cetin et al.,
2003). Objective indicators are related to external conditions such as income level,
accommodation conditions and quality of such conditions, crime rates and accessibility of
health services. Subjective indicators include personal emotions of the individual with regard
to his/her life conditions (Gilman and Huebner, 2000).
Life satisfaction is partially conceptualized as a result of the satisfaction in various spheres of
life such as work, family and health and it is assumed that the impacts of environmental
conditions on the life satisfaction substantially contribute to the satisfaction concerning the
spheres of life (Rode, 2004).
Life satisfaction demonstrates the result obtained from the comparison of the expectations of
the individual and the actual situation and generally includes the entire life of the individual
as well as the various dimensions of that life; that is, it expresses the satisfaction generally
felt for the individual’s whole life rather than a certain situation (Sener, 2009). In the studies
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concerning life satisfaction, it is remarkable that job satisfaction is generally emphasized
regarding life satisfaction. Considering the fact that individuals in today’s world spend most
of their time in the workplace, it may seem reasonable to accept the assumption that the life
satisfaction of the individual is substantially affected by job satisfaction. Nevertheless,
studies reveal that job satisfaction may explain approximately 5%-10% of the shifts in life
satisfaction (Uyguc et al., 1998).
While there are different views on the relation between life satisfaction and job satisfaction
and on the direction of such relation, it is notable that no conclusive results could be obtained
regarding whether the relation between the two variables is positive or negative or whether
there exists a relation between them although many studies were conducted on life
satisfaction-job satisfaction. (Uyguc et al., 1998).
Considering the definitions regarding life satisfaction, it is possible to say that there exist
many factors apart from job satisfaction that determine and affect the life satisfaction of
individuals. It was found that life satisfaction is associated with factors such as possessing a
meaningful life, enjoying life and having plenty of pursuits in life (Guler and Emec,
2006:131). On the other hand, factors including social connections, sexual activity, success,
physical activity, interest in nature, reading or listening to music, nutrition or drink
consumption make positive affective contributions to life satisfaction (Dockery, 2003). Some
studies in the literature put forth that age, stress, physical health, life style and personality
structure are among the basic determinants of life satisfaction (Chow, 2005). A consensus
does not exist in the literature regarding the influence of income level on life satisfaction.
Some studies emphasize the importance of the quality of social relations and relative
insignificance of income on satisfaction. On the other hand, however, some other studies
conclude that the income effect is significant for the level of life satisfaction (Dockery, 2003).
This research studies the satisfaction level of household heads. City centres of Antalya,
Isparta and Burdur were chosen as the research field and it was aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors that affect the satisfaction levels of household heads with the help of Logit
model using the data obtained from questionnaire surveys conducted with household heads.
2. MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY
Main material of this study is the cross-sectional data obtained through questionnaire survey
method from household heads living in the West Mediterranean Region urban area (AntalyaIsparta-Burdur). Furthermore, national and international studies, publications, statistics and
reports prepared by various institutions and organizations concerning the research subject
constitute other materials of this study.
As to the determination of sample size, the study employed the “Unclustered Single-Stage
Simple Random Sampling Method”, which is the most preferred method in consumption
studies. Questionnaire surveys were conducted to 490 household heads. Ratios of households
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of each province to the total number of households were taken into account in the distribution
of the calculated sample size to the provinces.
In this study, social and economic factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads
living in the urban centres of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur were analyzed using the Logit
model. Dependent variable in the Logit model is discrete and the estimated probability values
vary between 0 and 1. Another method that may be employed for this study is the Probit
model. The basic discrepancy between the Logit and Probit models stems from the difference
in assumptions regarding the probability distributions of the models. Though, no significant
difference exists between the results obtained through these models (Green, 2002). On the
other hand, the use of Logit model was preferred in this study as it is accepted that
independent variables explain dependent variable better in the Logit model (Amemiya, 1983).
The Logit model that is based on cumulative logistic probability function is expressed as
follows (Gujarati, 2001):
Pi E (Y 1|X i ) X i
Pi E (Yi 1|X i )
1
1 e ( X i )
1
1 e Zi
[1]
In the equation,
Z i X i
where;
: constant,
: parameters to be estimated for each explanatory variable,
i : ith independent variable.
P
Equation [1] is named as the logistic distribution function and i denotes the probability of
occurrence of the relevant incident. It becomes either zero or one as the result of the binary
selection in the form of Yes/No. Z denotes the explanatory variables vector included in the
model, whereas and denote the model parameters to be estimated.
When the equation above is rearranged and natural logarithm of both sides of the equation is
taken, the following equation is derived:
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P
Li Ln i Z i
1 X1 2 X 2 ......... n X n
1 Pi
[2]
Z
Dependent variable in this regression model i expresses the natural logarithmic value of
the ratio of choosing a certain option to choosing none. In other words, coefficients obtained
from the Logit model expresses the probability of preferring an incident to not preferring it.
“ ” was added to the equation as the error term of the model.
As the dependent variable in this study, household heads who are satisfied with their lives as
a whole are accepted as 1 and household heads that are included in other options than being
satisfied are accepted as 0. In the determination of probabilities of household heads to be and
not to be satisfied with their lives, demographic variables as well as explanatory variables
regarding the current perception of household heads were included in the model.
Demographic variables were included in the model as dummy variables. “I” variable
represents the income group the household head belongs to, whereas “PR” and “EL”
variables represent the province and educational level of the household head. Moreover,
“HWS” variable represent the satisfaction felt by the household head for the housewife status
of his spouse and “JS” variable represents the general job satisfaction level of the household
head. Similarly, “HS” variable represents the satisfaction of the household head for his health
status while “MS” variable represents the satisfaction level of the household head for his
marriage.
Factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads living in urban areas are analyzed
employing the Logit model. Here, the model in equation 2 is reexpressed according to the
said explanatory variables.
YM i 1IL1 2 IL2 3 ED1 4 ED2 5G1 6G 2 7 EM
8 SM 9 IM 10 EVM ei
[3]
Codes regarding dependent and independent variables used in the Logit analysis are provided
in Table 1. Logit model was estimated in Eviews 5.0 software employing the Maximum
Likelihood Method. One of the most significant advantages of using this method is that the
estimated parameters are consistent and efficient (Pindyck and Rubinfeld, 1991).
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Table 1. Variables Used in the Logit Model and Their Definitions
Dependent Variable
LSi
1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his life, otherwise=0
Independent Variables
PR1
1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Burdur, otherwise=0
PR2
1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Isparta, otherwise=0
PR3
1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Antalya, otherwise=0
(reference class)
EL1
1 if the household head has an education level of primary education or lower,
otherwise=0
EL 2
1 if the household head has an education level of high school or equivalent,
otherwise=0
EL3
1 if the household head has an education level of college or higher, otherwise=0
(reference class)
I1
1 if the household head has a total income lower than TL1250, otherwise=0
I2
1 if the household head has a total income between TL1250 and TL2500,
otherwise=0
I3
1 if the household head has a total income higher than TL2500, otherwise=0
(reference class)
HWS 1 if the spouse is housewife, otherwise=0
HS
1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his health status, otherwise=0
JS
1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his job, otherwise=0
MS
1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his marriage, otherwise=0
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3. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Descriptive statistics regarding the data compiled from 490 household heads used in the
analyses are provided. It demonstrates that 16% of household heads reside in Burdur, 18% in
Isparta and 66% in Antalya. 39% of the household heads who participated in the research
were found to have an educational level of college or higher, whereas 38% have an
educational level of high school or equivalent and 23% have an educational level lower than
high school or equivalent. 21% of household heads are included in the lowest income group
and 53% are included in the highest income group. While the spouses of 47% of the
household heads in the research region are housewives, those who stated that their spouses
were not housewife were 53%.
A great majority (72%) of the household heads stated that they were generally satisfied with
their lives, whereas those who stated that they were dissatisfied were found to be 28%.
Furthermore, 58% of the household heads in the research region stated that they were
generally satisfied with their health status and 42% stated that they were generally
dissatisfied with their current jobs. A great majority of the household heads who participated
in the research stated that they were satisfied with their marriage (78%), whereas those who
stated their dissatisfaction with their marriage were found to be 22%.
4. MODEL ESTIMATION RESULTS
The estimated model has 78% accurate estimation of the opinions of household heads living
in urban areas. Additionally, the Nagelkerke R Square value, which indicates the explanatory
power of the model, was found to be 0.52. The Logit model generally defined in Equation [3]
was estimated employing the variables summarized in Table 1 and the estimation results and
whether the parameters are statistically significant are presented in Table 2.
Table 2: Model Estimation Results
Variables
Coefficients
Z-Value
Level of Significance
C
-0.192
-0.518
0.6042
PR1
-0.733
-2.125
0.0336
PR2
-0.541
-1.659
0.993
EL1
-0.465
-1.350
0.1769
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EL2
-0.617
-2.032
0.0421
I1
-0.938
-2.369
0.0178
I2
-0.552
-1.650
0.0989
HWS
0.482
1.685
0.0920
HS
1.031
4.025
0.0001
JS
0.804
2.818
0.0048
MS
2.319
7.917
0.0000
Nagelkerke R-Square
0.52
Model Accurate Estimation Ratio
0.73
According to the analysis results, all variables included in the model have the anticipated
signs. In addition, all of the variables excluding EL1 and ISP were found to be statistically
significant at 10% level of significance.
According to the model estimation results, the household heads living in a larger city were
found to be happier than those living in a relatively smaller city, in other words, it was found
that the household heads living in Antalya are more likely to be satisfied with their lives than
those living in Isparta and Burdur.
According to research results, it is notable that the levels of life satisfaction of household
heads decrease as their educational levels increase. The parameter related to the ED1
variable, which includes the household heads possessing the lowest educational level, was
calculated as -0.46, which suggests that the household heads with low educational levels are
more satisfied with their lives compared to household heads with higher educational levels.
However, ED1 variable is not statistically significant.
Another variable included in the model is income variable. Similarly, parameters regarding
income variables were found to be negative and statistically significant. It was found that the
household heads with higher levels of income were more satisfied with their lives compared
to those with lower levels of income, in other words, there exists a linear relationship
between the income level and life satisfaction of household heads.
Parameters regarding housewife (HWS), job satisfaction (JS), health satisfaction (HS) and
marriage satisfaction (MS) were found to be positive and statistically significant. In other
words, it was found that those who were generally more satisfied with the housewife status of
their wives, current job, health status and marriage were more satisfied with their lives.
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5. CONCLUSION
This study analyzes the life satisfaction levels of household heads through the use of
questionnaire survey data compiled from household heads living in urban areas. To that end,
Logit model is estimated. It was found that life satisfaction decreases as the city in which the
household head lives gets larger and similarly, the probability of household heads to be
satisfied with their lives decreases as the level of education increases. Moreover, it was found
that the household heads with higher levels of income were more satisfied with their lives
than those with lower levels of income. Similarly, it was found that the household heads with
housewife spouses, health status satisfaction, job satisfaction and marriage satisfaction were
likely to be more satisfied with their lives compared to those who do not have such specific
satisfactions.
REFERENCES
Amemiya, T., 1983. Advanced Econometrics. Cambridge, MA Harvard University.
Chow, H.P.H., 2005. Life Satisfaction Among Universıty Students in a Canadian Prairie City:
a Multivariate Analysis, Social Indicators Research, 70, ss. 139- 150.
Cetin, M., Ebrinç, S., Başoğlu, C., Semiz, Ü.B., Çobanoğlu, N., Can, S. & Karaduman, F.
2003. Acemi Erlerin Yaşam Koşullarından Memnuniyetini Belirleyen Faktörlerin
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ICT Infrastructure for Sustainable Society:
A Story of BH Telecom
Dzihad Zlatar,Meliha Handzic
International Burch University, Sarajevo,
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mails:dzidzmir@gmail.com, mhandzic@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract
World-class ICT infrastructure is the key to rapid economic and social development ofa
country. Past studies show that the growth of ICT, particularly telecommunicationservices
has a direct link with the economic growth of the country. However,the access to ICT
infrastructure, services and applications and thus the level ofdevelopment varies among the
countries. The focus of this study is on the currentsituation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).
The main objective of the study is toexplore the penetration of telecommunication in B&H
and the role of BH Telecom inthis process.
Keywords:ICT, infrastructure, sustainable society, case study
1. INTRODUCTION
The war that has ravaged Bosnia (1992-1995) did not just take its toll in casualties and
material damage but has left the communications infrastructure crippled as well. While the
other countries in the region introduced beginnings of information technologies, Bosnia had
just started an arduous task of rebuilding its communications network. That task fell to the
198
�
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1168
Title
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Analysis of Factors Affecting the Life Satisfaction of Household Heads Living in Urban Areas: A Case of West Mediterranean Region
Author
Author
Ali Riza , Aktas
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Since the early ages of history, individuals have sought life satisfaction and considered it as a life goal. Because of this fact, the term life satisfaction has kept its importance in time and has been the focus of many studies. Life satisfaction is seen as a positive value gained by an individual’s own evaluation of the quality of life as a whole, therefore may be described as subjective. Nevertheless, studies made about life satisfaction use both subjective and objective indicators. Life satisfaction is partially conceptualized as the result of satisfaction related to various life fields such as work, family, health, etc. and it is assumed that the effects of environmental conditions highly help satisfaction related with life fields. When studies about life satisfaction are taken into consideration, it is notable that the term job satisfaction is generally emphasized. However, studies show that job satisfaction can explain only a few of the changes in life satisfaction. In this study, it is aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads by using data from questionnaires and Logit model. “Unclustered Single-Stage Simple Random Probability Sampling Method” was used to apply the questionnaires to 490 household heads living in city centers of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur. In order to determine the probability of whether the household heads were satisfied with their lives or not, explanatory variables oriented to the current perceptions of household heads were included to the model in the study in addition to the demographic variables. Demographic variables were included to the model as the dummy variable. Logit model was estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. According to the results of the analysis, life satisfaction of the household heads decreased with the increase of the size of the city. Similarly, increase in education level also decreased the probability of life satisfaction of the household heads. In addition, household heads with high income levels were happier than the ones with lower income. Similarly, if the spouse of the household head is either healthy, satisfied from job, or is a house wife, satisfied from marriage, then life satisfaction is determined to be higher than the household heads without the aforementioned spouse characteristics. Keywords: Satisfaction, Life Satisfaction, Household Head, Logit Model, West Mediterranean Region.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
-
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1165
Title
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Utilising Information Systems for Measuring Impact on Social Sustainability: Survey of Microcredit Organisations in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Author
Author
Alica , Pandzo
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Microfinance has been used as a tool for social sustainability and development since the 1970s. In microfinance, assessment of social sustainability is often conducted through client impact monitoring. This study explores the impact measurement practices of microcredit organisations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and their use of information systems in this process. We draw on the latest trends of using shared measurement systems for impact monitoring, to point out the potential of using such systems to achieve sustainable impact on wider social issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This paper outlines the roles and responsibilities that different stakeholders should play in the system development process. Keywords: microfinance, microcredit, Bosnia and Herzegovina, social impact, information systems, ICT, shared measurement systems.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)