196 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c3547f779adfcd7908143b7cd04299d8.pdf 673948985cfb974b53f467b82db3b817 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies The Factors Which Caused the Decline in the Amount of the Newly One Family Houses Sold in US Ali Cüneyt ÇETİN Suleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Isparta, Turkey, cuneytcetin@sdu.edu.tr Jing LI KOLE School of Business State University of New York at Oswego Oswego, New York, 13126 USA, likole@oswego.edu ABSTRACT The new privately owned one-family house sold (C25) is recognized as great indicator for economy. The monthly data indicates that 250.000 houses were sold in February 2011. Compared to 2006 when 1,061,000 were sold, we understand that the total number of houses sold decreased by 76% in 2011. The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. The empirical results indicate when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases by 20 thousand.When the unemployment rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases 81 thousand, holding all other variables constant. The results show a positive relationship may exist if rising home prices increase the quantity demanded for housing. Income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not significant. For the population variable, the coefficient is a negative number. The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has significant effects. We could be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag one time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag one time period and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant at 10% level. JEL Codes: O18, R21 Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 KEYWORDS United States of America,housingsales, mortgage, regression ARTICLE HISTORY Submitted: 29 Jun 2012 Resubmitted: 22 November 2012 Accepted: 25 December2012 185 �Ali Cüneyt ÇETİN / Jing LI KOLE Introduction Sales of new and existing privately owned single-family homes1 represent the number of housing units sold. New homes are newly constructed houses that are sold by the developer to the first owner. Existing homes are houses that are at least one year old. The number of new and existing homes available for sale indicates the inventory of unsold houses that are on the market. Economic output is increased far more by the purchase of a new house than of an existing house because of the materials and construction work required in building a new house, although renovation work is sometimes done when an existing house is purchased. While existing-home sales have a much smaller direct impact on the economy than new-home sales, existing and new-home sales are in fact closely linked because existing-home owners often can afford to buy a new home only by selling their current home. Thus, the market for existing homes strongly influences sales of new homes. In addition, both new and existing home sales generate purchases of furniture, appliances, and other house furnishings, which is a secondary stimulus to the economy. Home sales are sensitive to changes in economic conditions related to employment, personal income and saving, interest rates, housing starts, housing affordability index, and mortgage delinquency and foreclosure. Although housing is a necessity of living, home sales are highly cyclical because households are most likely to purchase a home during prosperous times when they can best afford it, but they tend to defer a home purchase during depressed times when they can least afford it (Chea, 2010). The new privately owned one-family house sold2 (C25) is recognized as great indicator for economy. The Housing Sales Survey is conducted by the Bureau of the Census under contract with the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales of single-family homes were 250,000, according to the new monthly data3 in February 2011. Compared to five years ago, 1,061,000 in 2006 were decreased by 76%. 1 Single-family homes are unattached houses and townhouses, including individually owned and operated housing units as well as single-family townhouse condominiums. Currently, some 66 percent of all U.S. housing consists of single or one-family homes (Listokin, D.,& Burchell, R.W. Housing (shelter), Microsoft® Student 2009 [DVD], Redmond, WA: Microsoft Corporation). 2 It’s commonly known as C25. 3 Measures of new-home sales and of new homes available for sale are prepared monthly by the Bureau of the Census in the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. 186 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �The Factors Which Caused the Decline in the Amount of the Newly One Family Houses Sold in US What are the causes to the dramatic decline of number of C25? The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. Literature Review An extensive body of literature exists concerning housing demand and home sales with most works confined to specific subtopics within the housing market. In recent years, researchers have devoted much of their effort to identify factors that determine the housing market mechanism (Sander and Testa, 2009; Lyytikäinen, 2009; Fratantoni and Schuh, 2003; Taylor, 2007; Bradley, Gabriel, and Wohar, 1995; Vargas-Silva, 2008). Many factors have been cited (Ewing and Wang, 2005; Baffoe-Bonnie, 1998; Huang, 1973; Thom, 1985) as sources of housing market dynamics; among these, housing price (Rapach and Strauss, 2009) and housing starts (Lyytikäinen, 2009; Ewing and Wang, 2005; Puri and Lierop, 1988; Huang, 1973) play a very important role. This literature review relates to the variables in statistical models and their explanatory power in the case of home sales and housing demand. Rising home prices would tend to result in a decrease in the quantity demanded for housing. However, as Campbell and Cocco (2007) found, a positive relationship may exist if rising home prices increase the perceived wealth of house holds, or lead to relaxed borrowing constraints. Their work also suggested that a reverse causality could result, with relaxed borrowing constraints increasing housing demand and therefore prices. Goodwin (1986) noted that inflation –distorted home prices may actually increase demand by acting as inflation hedges, with homeowners using increased home equity to compensate for rising prices in other areas. Unemployment, by lowering a person’s income, would tend to dampen the demand for new housing. Literature concerning the effects of unemployment on housing have largely ignored this simple assumption and instead focused on the effect homeownership has on unemployment. Oswald (1996) found that a 10 percent increase in homeownership increased unemployment by 2 percent. A study using Spanish data by Garcia and Hernandez (2004) that included extensive demographic variables concerning age, income and marital status found that the previous literature was not relevant for the Spanish market, where high homeownership rates were negatively correlated to unemployment. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 187 �Ali Cüneyt ÇETİN / Jing LI KOLE Inflation can produce a number of effects on the housing market. By increasing the price of housing, inflation can be assumed to reduce the demand for housing in inflationary times. Yet if used as an inflation hedge, housing demand may actually increase with inflation (Goodwin, 1986). The tax deductible nature of nominal rates of mortgage interest can actually lower the real cost of capital and therefore stimulates demand and homeownership (Rosen and Rosen, 1980), especially given the fact that capital gains are not taxable for first-time home sales. Kearl’s (1979) often cited work stated that inflation’s effect on housing costs serves to lower housing demand, while Feldstein and Summers (1978) observed that inflation decreases housing’s attractiveness as an investment. Hendershott (1980) confirmed the negative relationship between inflation and housing demand, and found that carrying costs were much more important in determining this demand than capital gains. According to Follain (1982), a 1 percent increase in the anticipated inflation rate reduced homeownership by more than three percentage points for all households with a larger effect occurring for non-elderly married couples. Complicit in this finding was the result that higher interest rates necessarily constrain borrowing. Homeownership usually necessitates borrowing, making the interest rate a key factor in the demand for housing. Aspergis (2003) stated that interest rates were the most important factor influencing housing demand, outweighing both inflation and unemployment as an explanatory variable which reinforced a conclusion suggested by Goodwin (1986), among others. Feldstein and Summers (1978) noted that the tax deductibility of mortgage interest plays a role in increasing the real interest rate, with cost depreciation lowering it. Their work also confirmed the Fisher effect link between inflation and nominal interest rates, with the two variables working together to either increase or decrease housing demand (Kagochi and Mace, 2009,p. 134-135). Data and Research Methodology The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of the newly one-family houses sold in US. For this reason, our dependent variable is the new privately owned one-family house sold. People have a tendency to buy a house when the mortgage rate is low. Historically, the new home sales usually have a lagged reaction to changing mortgage rates. 188 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �The Factors Which Caused the Decline in the Amount of the Newly One Family Houses Sold in US Therefore, our first independent variable is long–term mortgage rate. People have a tendency to buy a house when the mortgage rate is low.Our prediction to the sign of the slope should be negative. We think people’s income should be another cause to C25. Following the same idea, the unemployment rate will also capture people’s expectation about their future income. If people lose their job, logically, they will not risk borrowing a 30 years mortgage. Another rational thought would be a C25 increase when population increases. So, population in United States is our fourth independent variable. A principle of microeconomics assumes that, holding all other factors equal, as the price of a product or service goes up, demand for that product or service declines. Conversely, if the price declines, demand goes up. Finally, we take the House Price Index for the United States as our last independent variable. Thus, our independent variables include 30 years mortgage rate, real personal income (seasonal adjusted), unemployment rate, population, and house price index. After determining our independent variables, we tried to search proper data to answer our question. The sample period is a time series of monthly data beginning February 1, 1980 and ending February 1, 2011. It contains 31 years and a total of 373 data sets. Data are collected from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic research database. The reason why we have chosen Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic research database as our resource is twofold. First, most of the data sets come with a nice graph which is a good source for visualization. Second, all the data sets have a downloading option in excel. This option made our data input session smooth. However, there are still some problems we have encountered during the data gathering process. Variables such as mortgage rate, income, and unemployment rate are collected monthly. But the house price index is collected quarterly; the population is collected annually. In order to have the same statistical measurement, we duplicated the last two variables in a respective monthly time series. Before we started to perform any test, we made some prediction about our variables’ slope sign and the significance of the variables. We predicted that the slopes of real personal income and a population should be positive. It makes sense when Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 189 �Ali Cüneyt ÇETİN / Jing LI KOLE incomes increase people have more money to consume. Similarly, population increase should lead to more people needing houses. We also predicted that the slopes of mortgage rate, unemployment rate, and price index should be negative. As mortgage rates increase, people tend to borrow less to purchase houses. When a high unemployment rate occurs, people are more likely to have lower income expectation. The house price index is the average house price for a given period. Normally, we expect that a price increase leads to a demand decrease. That is the reason why the last three slopes are negative. Empirical Analysis We used Gretl4 as a tool to perform our entire statistics tests. The first test that we run was the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). We generate a multiple regression model which include our dependent variable, Housesold and our independent variables, HPIndex_(1), Mortgage_(2), Population_(3), Real personal income_(4), and Unemployment_(5). The result of Ordinary Least Squares model is shown in Table 1. According to the Table 1, excluding the constant, mortgage rate and unemployment rate are significant at 1% significance level (p-value). Since the p-value of HPIndex, Population and RPIncome variables are above 0.10, these variables have no significant effect on house sold. The Gretl result also shows that the R² is 0.452. The interpretation of R2 is the proportion of the variable explained by the regression model. In this case, we can use our five independent variables to explain 45% of the reason why the new house sold. 4 Gretl is an open-sourcestatistical package, mainly for econometrics. The name is an acronym for GnuRegression, Econometrics and Time-series Library. Though it can’t be considered as a generalpurpose statistical software (its main functions are time series analysis, regression analysis and various econometric tests), it is very useful thanks also to its perfect integration with R. and with two other statistical packages used in seasonal adjustments: Tramo-Seatss and X-12-Arima, http:// gretl.sourceforge.net, 16.11.2012. 190 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �The Factors Which Caused the Decline in the Amount of the Newly One Family Houses Sold in US Table 1. Ordinary least squares, using observations 1-373, Dependent variable: Housesold coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value Const 2500.60 806.541 3.100 0.0021 HPIndex 0.698577 0.592120 1.180 0.2388 Mortgage -20.3564 7.08586 -2.873 0.0043 Population -5.68910 4.53039 -1.256 0.2100 RPIncome 0.0380852 Unemployment -81.4594 0.0735233 0.5180 0.6048 6.11404 -13.32 2.63e-033 Mean dependent var 721.3190 S.D. dependent var 238.4758 Sum squared resid 11603099 S.E. of regression 177.8091 R-squared 0.451543 Adjusted R-squared 0.444071 F(5, 367) 60.43004 P-value(F) 7.86e-46 Log-likelihood -2458.645 Akaike criterion 4929.289 Schwarz criterion 4952.819 Hannan-Quinn 4938.633 Rho 0.959309 Durbin-Watson 0.087015 Housesold=2,500.6+0.699HPindex-20.356Mortgage-5.689Population+0.038RPincome81.459Unemployment There are some surprises due to the sign of the slopes. Initially, we predicted the coefficient of population should be positive since more people need more houses. Nevertheless, the coefficient of the population in the OLS model is about -5. And our prediction for house price index coefficient is negative, but here it is positive 0.699. We need to continue a further investigation of this model or our data sets. Before we make any conclusion, we should interpret the OLS model first. The coefficient for the 30-year Mortgage (2) rate is negative 20.356. The p-value for the 2 is 0.0043. It shows that the 2 is significant at 1% significance level. The coefficient for the unemployment (5) is negative 81.459. The p-value for 5 is smaller than 0.001. We can say that with 99% confidence level that the unemployment variable is significant. The p-value is 0.2388 for 1. It means that this variable is not significant at even the 10% significance level. The coefficient for real personal income is 0.038 and the p-value is 0.605. In order to test the monthly effects, we include 11 month dummy variables in our new model. Since our data is time series, we notice that our Durbin-Watson Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 191 �Ali Cüneyt ÇETİN / Jing LI KOLE statistic is equal to 0.084. We also performed a Durbin-Watson test to check the autocorrelation error in the model. Table 2 shows the OLS, using observations for 1980:02 2011:02. Table 2. Ordinary least squares, using observations 1980:02 2011:02 Dependent variable: Housesold (T = 373) coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value const 2657.05 868.735 3.059 0.0024 HPIndex 0.659071 0.607389 1.085 0.2786 Mortgage -21.1217 7.30748 -2.890 0.0041 Population -6.51837 4.92045 -1.325 0.1861 RPIncome 0.0499770 0.0790419 0.6323 0.5276 Unemployment -81.2761 6.21222 -13.08 3.30e-032 dm1 -26.2139 45.8000 -0.5724 0.5674 dm2 -25.4406 45.7532 -0.5560 0.5785 dm3 0.327942 47.4696 0.006908 0.9945 dm4 -4.43171 47.3711 -0.09355 0.9255 dm5 -3.23851 46.5742 -0.06953 0.9446 dm6 -0.805373 46.6899 -0.01725 0.9862 dm7 2.85291 46.3886 0.06150 0.9510 dm8 -8.65891 46.2479 -0.1872 0.8516 dm9 -6.80871 46.2805 -0.1471 0.8831 dm10 -6.62623 46.1451 -0.1436 0.8859 dm11 -8.69124 45.9089 -0.1893 0.8500 Mean dependent var 721.3190 S.D. dependent var 238.4758 Sum squared resid 11572504 S.E. of regression 180.2971 R-squared 0.452989 Adjusted R-squared 0.428405 F(16, 356) 18.42562 P-value(F) 1.24e-37 Log-likelihood -2458.152 Akaike criterion 4950.305 Schwarz criterion 5016.971 Hannan-Quinn 4976.777 rho 0.960583 Durbin-Watson 0.084113 Durbin-Watson statistic 0.0870146 p-value 0 According to the Durbin-Watson test, p-value is equal to zero shows that the model has autocorrelation problem. We should correct the model with a proper statistical method. Since the Durbin-Watson statistic equal to 0.087, it shows a positive first order autocorrelation. 192 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �The Factors Which Caused the Decline in the Amount of the Newly One Family Houses Sold in US The following result is the Prais-Winsten correction model, here we took lag-2 time period. Comparing to our lag-1 period result, the lag-2 period has a DW result closer to 2. This is the reason why we took lag-2 time period. Table 3 shows the Prais-Winsten correction model. Table 3. Prais-Winsten, using observations 1980: 04 - 2011: 02 Dependent variable: Housesold (T = 371) Coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value const -205.993 239.504 -0.8601 0.3903 HPIndex -0.137471 1.03831 -0.1324 0.8947 HPIndex_1 0.122039 1.34883 0.09048 0.9280 HPIndex_2 -0.257960 1.01868 -0.2532 0.8002 Mortgage -29.3433 9.40833 -3.119 0.0020 Mortgage _1 -3.93193 22.0249 -0.1785 0.8584 Mortgage _2 32.0894 15.5183 2.068 0.0394 Population -1.35884 3.21593 -0.4225 0.6729 Population_1 6.66001 4.68142 1.423 0.1557 Population_2 -4.20546 3.35179 -1.255 0.2104 RPIncome 0.0493773 0.0445178 1.109 0.2681 RPIncome_1 -0.111914 0.0587686 -1.904 0.0577 RPIncome_2 0.0560686 0.0457059 1.227 0.2207 Unemployment 1.68362 15.3669 0.1096 0.9128 Unemployment _1 29.2876 23.5791 1.242 0.2150 Unemployment _2 -28.4143 15.1497 -1.876 0.0615 Statistics based on the rho-differenced data Mean dependent var 722.4717 S.D. dependent var 238.5867 Sum squared resid 734764.0 S.E. of regression 45.62329 R-squared 0.965114 Adjusted R-squared 0.963434 F(17, 353) 827.8281 P-value(F) 2.0e-272 Rho -0.038935 Durbin-Watson 2.076334 After the Prais-Winsten correction (Table 3), we noticed that the Durbin-Watson statistic is 2.076. It means that the autocorrelation error is very low. In this new model, current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag -1time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag-1 time period and unemployment rate at lag-2 time period are significant at 10% level. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 193 �Ali Cüneyt ÇETİN / Jing LI KOLE The new R Square, 96%, is much higher than the OLS model. It also has a lower tratio. These indications might reveal a multicollinearity relationship existing among the independent variables. When a multicollinearity problem exists in this model, it is possible that each of the individual coefficients may be individually insignificant, but the joint effect may have a significant impact on the dependent variable. Since some independent variables in this model are not significant, we decided to perform a Wald-test to test the joint effect of these factors: Price index, real personal income, unemployment rate, and population. H0: 1=2=3=5=7= 8=9=10=12=13=14=0 H1: at least one of the  is not zero The Wald-test result is below: Wald-test formula: F = [(ESS R - ESS U ) / m]/ {ESS / [N − (k + 1)]} Test statistic: F (12, 353) = 1.94718, with p-value = 0.0282136 Where the following notation applies: ESS R , error sum of squares of Model R ESS U , error sum of squares of Model U ESS, error sum of squares Model R is called the restricted model Model U is called the unrestricted model m=number of restrictions N= number of observations k= number of regressors in unrestricted regression Since the p-value of the Wald-test is 0.028, we do have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis at 5% significance level. In another word, the joint effects of the non-significant variable are great than zero. Given the result of Wald test, we should continue an investigation the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Therefore, we carried on a series of Auxiliary Regressions. By using Auxiliary regressions, we can compute variance inflation factor(VIF) which is a measure of the effect of multicollinearity on the variance parameter estimates. The auxiliary regression and VIF result is presented in Table 4. 194 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �The Factors Which Caused the Decline in the Amount of the Newly One Family Houses Sold in US Table 4. The Auxiliary regression and VIF result In-Variables HPIndex Mortgage PoPula RPI Unemp VIF 433.35 150.01 188.52 238.63 105.828 HPIndex_1 Mortgage_1 Popula_1 RPI_1 Unemp_1 In-Variables VIF In-Variables VIF 2084.58 392.72 2093.87 1798.31 213.71 HPIndex_2 Mortgage_2 Popula_2 RPI_2 Unemp_2 1378.97 136.64 1236.1 1208.83 103.95 High VIFs suggest the presence of a multicollinearity problem. When VIF>30 usually indicates a sever multicollinearity. The VIF results for all the variables are great than 30. It means that all the variables are highly correlated. It also means that we have a small sample size. Conclusion Housing sales play a significant role as leading indicator of the economy, and thereforeunderstanding the market dynamics cannot be overemphasized, especially in light of the recenthousing market turmoil and its effect on the economy as a whole. Since, the factors in thehousing market will likely continue to play an important role in the business and economy (Gupta& Das, 2010; Bernanke and Gertler, 1995), understanding the market mechanism, specifically thelead-lag relationship between factors can offer policy makers a notion about the direction of theoverall market trajectory in advance, and thus, provides a better control for designing appropriatepolicies for housing market stabilization (Choudhury, 2010, p.45). As a result of such importance of the housing market on the economy,the purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. The study found that the coefficient for the 30-year Mortgage (2) rate is negative 20.356. It indicates when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases by 20 thousand, holding all other variables constant. This is not a surprise result for this regression analysis. The mortgage rate plays a critical role in house market. The 30-year mortgage rate decreases more than 50% from 13% in the1980s to 5%-7% in the 2000s. At the same time, the number of houses sold increases about 50% from 541,000 in the 1980s to 1,000,000 in 2006, before the 2007 recession. Volume 3 Number 1 Spring 2013 195 �Ali Cüneyt ÇETİN / Jing LI KOLE The coefficient for the unemployment (5) is negative 81.459. It indicates when the unemployment rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned onefamily houses sold decreases 81 thousand, holding all other variables constant. This result proves our prediction in the sign of the slope. New houses sold and labor markets tend to go together. When the unemployment rate is low, people have a positive expectation for their future income. These expectations will strengthen the house market. Similarly, when a large number of people lose their jobs, the house market will move slowly. It’s also true that these two factors are strong indicators for the economy. Currently, we have a slow house market and a low employment rate. One of the unexpected results is the positive sign of the coefficient 1for the house price index. As we explained previously, we thought when price goes up the demand should go down. But it doesn’t fit in this case. One possible explanation is that this is all a function of rising demand and the rising prices for houses simply reflects the rising demand and the inadequate supply of new construction for homes. The second possibility is that rising prices actually cause an increase in demand. This is because the purchase of a house has two components: the usefulness of the house as a place to live, and the anticipated future income to be obtained from selling the house later at a higher price. Rising home prices increase buyers’ expectation of future profits from selling their houses, so they are willing to pay more for a house. The coefficient 4 for the real personal income variable is 0.038 and the p-value is 0.605. This result indicates that income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not significant. This may due to the unemployment rate variable which captures most income effects. In another way, it shows that real personal income and unemployment have a high correlation.For the population variable, the p-value is 0.21, so it has no significance effect on house sold. In order to test the monthly effects, we include 11 month dummy variables in our new model. The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has significant effects. However, from March to July the slopes of the months have positive or lower negativeeffects. It means that these few months have more houses sold than other months. Consequently, it’s impossible to determine all the causes to the number of new house sold since many factors are interrelated. However, through our series of statistical tests, wecould be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag one time period is significant at 5% level; both real 196 Journal of Economic and Social Studies �The Factors Which Caused the Decline in the Amount of the Newly One Family Houses Sold in US personal incomes at lag one time period and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant at 10% level. References Aspergis, N. (2003). Housing prices and macroeconomic factors: prospects within the European Monetary Union, International Real Estate Review, Vol. 6 No. 1, pp. 63-74. Baffoe-Bonnie, J. (1998). The dynamic impact of macroeconomic aggregates on housing prices and stock of houses: a national and regional analysis, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(2), 179–197. Bernanke, B. S.,& Gertler, M. (1995). 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A conjecture on the explanation for high unemployment in the industrialized nations: part I, Warwick Economics Research Paper 475, University of Warwick, Coventry, pp. 197206. Puri, A.K.,& Lierop, J.V. (1988). Forecasting Housing Starts, International Journal of Forecasting, 4, pp. 125-134. Rapach, D. E., & Strauss, J. K. (2009). Differences in housing price forecastability across US states, International Journal of Forecasting, 25(2), pp. 351-372. Rosen, H. S., & Rosen, K. T. (1980). Federal taxes and homeownership: evidence from time series, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 88 No. 11, pp. 59-75. Sander, W., & Testa, W. A. (2009). Education and Household Location in Chicago,Growth and Change, 40(1), pp. 116–139. Taylor, J. B. (2007). Housing and Monetary Policy), NBER Working Paper No. W13682. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1077808. Thom, R. (1985). The Relationship between Housing Starts and Mortgage Availability, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(4), pp. 693-696. Vargas-Silva, C. (2008). Monetary Policy and the U.S. Housing Market: A VAR Analysis Imposing Sign Restrictions,Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(3), pp. 977-990. 198 Journal of Economic and Social Studies � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2381 Title A name given to the resource The Factors Which Caused the Decline in the Amount of the Newly One Family Houses Sold in US Author Author ÇETİN, Ali Cüneyt KOLE, Jing Li Abstract A summary of the resource. The new privately owned one-family house sold (C25) is recognized as great indicator for economy. The monthly data indicates that 250.000 houses were sold in February 2011. Compared to 2006 when 1,061,000 were sold, we understand that the total number of houses sold decreased by 76% in 2011. The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. The empirical results indicate when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases by 20 thousand.When the unemployment rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases 81 thousand, holding all other variables constant. The results show a positive relationship may exist if rising home prices increase the quantity demanded for housing. Income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not significant. For the population variable, the coefficient is a negative number. The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has significant effects. We could be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag one time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag one time period and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant at 10% level. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-03-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/a17c228b5cdf90ac0373ef2fbaadb93d.doc fa4ee80ffd49d1b74880309e8d40a7d4 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/136227ab575a54e6c1042efbc0a15ff4.pdf c8d482a6afb03d78ca3c2eb38fd6622e PDF Text Text 1st International Annual Student Symposium Who is English Language Teacher from The Point of Pre-Service Teachers` View? Future self-image of modern language teachers Kenan Kadušić International Burch University / Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina ABSTRACT This study aims to provide an understanding towards the question “Who is English Language Teacher?” which may sound very simple to answer when it is heard for the first time, but in reality it is NOT so simple. “Education” covering many concepts under it is accepted inevitable from ancient times till todays. The investments for the education by governments are still not enough to fulfil the changing needs. “Teachers” are playing the main role in that important process. If that role is crucial what about the qualifications of teachers? Steps to be taken training are changing according to the needs of the time and developing technology. By conducting a questionnaire survey for the evaluation of those qualifications, we examined the current situation and expectations for that dynamic from the point of the pre-service teachers studying at a Faculty of Education. Ernest Hemingway’s The Old Man and the Sea Nejra Mulaosmanović International Burch University / Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina ABSTRACT “A man can be destroyed but not defeated”. In the Old man and the sea, Santiago says, “A man can be destroyed but not defeated. The true statement can be referred to throughout the novel. Santiago is in the end physically destroyed, but mentally he is not defeated. Santiago’s courage and pride pushes him forward throughout the novel, even when it looks like hope is lost, 32 | � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1448 Title A name given to the resource Who is English Language Teacher from The Point of Pre-Service Teachers` View? Future self-image of modern language teachers Author Author KADUSIC, Kenan Abstract A summary of the resource. This study aims to provide an understanding towards the question “Who is English Language Teacher?” which may sound very simple to answer when it is heard for the first time, but in reality it is NOT so simple. “Education” covering many concepts under it is accepted inevitable from ancient times till todays. The investments for the education by governments are still not enough to fulfil the changing needs. “Teachers” are playing the main role in that important process. If that role is crucial what about the qualifications of teachers? Steps to be taken training are changing according to the needs of the time and developing technology. By conducting a questionnaire survey for the evaluation of those qualifications, we examined the current situation and expectations for that dynamic from the point of the pre-service teachers studying at a Faculty of Education. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-03-07 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3574 Title A name given to the resource English for Employability Project Author Author ALI, Adel Abstract A summary of the resource. My abstract will be about The English for Employability project. The project was run through a partnership between the British council and the ATFP and aimed to enhance the quality of vocational English training and through this the employment prospects for Tunisian youth in vocational education. The ultimate goal of this project is to improve the quality of professional development, in particular teacher training, in the vocational education sector by building trainer capacity at the national level. The program, which contributed immensely in boosting our career and open new horizons to us, consisted of the following key phases: phase 1: teacher training, phase 2: Train the trainer, phase 3: Curriculum development and Materials design while phase deals with mentoring and shadowing. In my abstract, I will show the impact of the training we had on the quality of our teaching especially in our context of operation in the vocational training sector. Teaching ESP with a huge variety of fields without any coaching or training was a real challenge to us. One of the main problems we were suffering from in the ESP context was the lack of specialized material as well as the inability of the trainers to design the material appropriate to the needs of the learners. This reflected negatively both on the performance of the trainers as well as on our products, who are the learners. Here came the intervention and the input of the British council whose output gave us the confidence needed to carry on Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/a0af753e53276fa95583e3350efabbf8.doc ffc381bad194ef91a3eba42ac9bd4cd4 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/4a66dafe17bf3c95f392673412fa8823.pdf d801c391a098c214393ac1175a3c019b PDF Text Text 1st International Annual Student Symposium best way to fight against this omnipresent problem, because only participation and fight is guarantee for development. Anti-corruption policies are important tool in building healthy society and system, but in case of Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is long road on a way to complete successfully European integration. Green Economy in the Global World, Green Economy Implementations in the World and Examples of Turkey Fethullah ATAÇ & Recep Yortanlı Yalova University / Yalova, Turkey ABSTRACT The primary purpose of this article is research of the Green Economy in the Global World, Green Economy Implementations in the World and Examples of Turkey. The importance of green economy is improved by various environmental events day by day. According to this case, we have researched many resources which about the effects of green economy and combined the all information that two categorized as world applications and examples of Turkey. Actually, we have defined that what green economy is, with many different words in order to understandable for everybody because, if we would like to talk the importance of green economy we must know that what it is. It is also important for big companies and political forces. A lot of company knows that the green economy will bring a big profit margin, more employment and less damaged nature. But, only a few big companies which placed in the developed country try to do green economic factors in their work life and corporate culture. The developed countries like U.S.A, France, Germany and less developed countries like Egypt, India and China carry out the green economy in order to improve their economy. For example, in the U.S.A, the political forces has over than $900 billion to use controlling country’s economy but they used the 10% of this money for green economy 16 | �BOOK OF ABSTRACTS and they have received a lot of return. In this study, we must recognize that, Turkey needs to use green economy every part of production and economics. We also focused on the weakness of green economy in Turkey. Recent, there is much study to increase using green economy in Turkey. Some politicians and economists want to give information’s to people in order to teaching what green economy is. This is important for Turkey. Islamic Banking in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Relationship between Religion and Islamic Banking Adoption Elvisa Buljubašić International Burch University / Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Keywords: Islamic banking, religion, decisive factors, Bosnia and Herzegovina ABSTRACT The Islamic banking and finance is the segment of global financial system that has the fastest growth rate. Today, the center of Islamic finance is in the London. UK has the longest experience is Islamic banking, despite the fact that Muslims are not the biggest population there. So what is the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding the use of Islamic banking and its products? The study attempts to analyze the relationship between religion and Islamic banking service adoption in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the level of awareness of BH citizens of Islamic banking. Bosnia and Herzegovina is multiethnic country, in other words, people of different religious groups are represented there. So are the other religious teachings in accordance with the use of Islamic banking, what are their perceptions of it? The questionnaire is used to assess the opinions of BH citizens. It is distributed to the sample of 26 people, mainly to the students. The sample is selected randomly among the users and non-users of Islamic banking. After the data is gathered, it is analyzed in SPSS, using descriptive statistics (frequencies, Chi-Square test). | 17 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1419 Title A name given to the resource Green Economy in the Global World, Green Economy Implementations in the World and Examples of Turkey Author Author ATAC, Fethullah YORTANLI, Recep Abstract A summary of the resource. The primary purpose of this article is research of the Green Economy in the Global World, Green Economy Implementations in the World and Examples of Turkey. The importance of green economy is improved by various environmental events day by day. According to this case, we have researched many resources which about the effects of green economy and combined the all information that two categorized as world applications and examples of Turkey. Actually, we have defined that what green economy is, with many different words in order to understandable for everybody because, if we would like to talk the importance of green economy we must know that what it is. It is also important for big companies and political forces. A lot of company knows that the green economy will bring a big profit margin, more employment and less damaged nature. But, only a few big companies which placed in the developed country try to do green economic factors in their work life and corporate culture. The developed countries like U.S.A, France, Germany and less developed countries like Egypt, India and China carry out the green economy in order to improve their economy. For example, in the U.S.A, the political forces has over than $900 billion to use controlling country’s economy but they used the 10% of this money for green economy and they have received a lot of return. In this study, we must recognize that, Turkey needs to use green economy every part of production and economics. We also focused on the weakness of green economy in Turkey. Recent, there is much study to increase using green economy in Turkey. Some politicians and economists want to give information’s to people in order to teaching what green economy is. This is important for Turkey. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/355a1635ad82ef9bff8d8931706a792b.docx a38ed69a20147a4e4089f4fa8043198d https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/2b3e4e65c4c4bedbd8efa11ff0627ea4.pdf b98e923ec2b0e7973eb40b180368b58b PDF Text Text HISTORICAL AND SOCIO-POLITICAL FEATURES OF LANGUAGE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Almasa MULALIĆ, Azamat AKBAROV Abstract: Bosnian language-for Balkans- has always been a very sensitive question. Therefore, this paper deals with the reasons behind dissolution of Serbo-Croatian language into three different languages from the historical, socio-political and linguistic perspectives. This paper began with the historical background as inevitable introductory framework for an understanding of language changes and transformations. Then the second part of this paper analyzes sociopolitical developments and language that were conditioned by various historical processes. An attempt has been made to present how language was evolving from Medieval Bosančica to present day three constitutionally accepted languages namely Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian. Furthermore, last part of the paper deals with the main characteristics of Bosnian language in comparison to Serbian and Croatian languages. Apart from indicating affirmed historicity of Bosnian language this paper holds that the development of different languages in BosniaHerzegovina was a result of a need for national identification. However, there are insignificant linguistic differences among three languages that are officially used in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Key words: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Language, Bosnian language and Serbo-Croatian Language � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1403 Title A name given to the resource HISTORICAL AND SOCIO-POLITICAL FEATURES OF LANGUAGE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Author Author Almasa, Mulalic Azamat, Akbarov Abstract A summary of the resource. Bosnian language-for Balkans- has always been a very sensitive question. Therefore, this paper deals with the reasons behind dissolution of Serbo-Croatian language into three different languages from the historical, socio-political and linguistic perspectives. This paper began with the historical background as inevitable introductory framework for an understanding of language changes and transformations. Then the second part of this paper analyzes socio-political developments and language that were conditioned by various historical processes. An attempt has been made to present how language was evolving from Medieval Bosančica to present day three constitutionally accepted languages namely Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian. Furthermore, last part of the paper deals with the main characteristics of Bosnian language in comparison to Serbian and Croatian languages. Apart from indicating affirmed historicity of Bosnian language this paper holds that the development of different languages in Bosnia-Herzegovina was a result of a need for national identification. However, there are insignificant linguistic differences among three languages that are officially used in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Key words: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Language, Bosnian language and Serbo-Croatian Language Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available MOTİF AKADEMİ Hakemli Halk Bilimi Dergisi Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics,PE English,PR English literature Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3585 Title A name given to the resource Vernacular in North East Turkey Author Author Arikan, Muhammed OZTURK, M.Kubra Akbarov, Azamat Abstract A summary of the resource. Language is one of the most important features of our lives; it is the one thing that connects us not just in a social way but also through decades and even generations. It is probably the only one thing that almost every human being has, whether he is a teacher, lawyer, beggar, or even a president. But what and how much do we know about our language? Do we know that even in our own native language we have differences, that we all do not use the same language in the same manner? That these differences can sometimes bring color to our culture and lives but at the same time could cause misunderstandings? Or even that these small differences could sometimes give clues to our past and future? In this paper I will look at a vernacular of Turkish just like this, used in the Black Sea region, mainly around the eastern parts. I will show how vocabularies can be owned by certain groups and how even syntax and phonological features such as consonants can be changed. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f19b8f9c79cb406343b76deb1074462c.docx 44e29f4a6064f38951eaefa964252766 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1399 Title A name given to the resource Edebi Hatıralarda 1860-1923 Dönemi Türk Edebiyatı (Meseleler, Şahıslar) Author Author Ay, Ferudun COSKUN, Sezai Abstract A summary of the resource. Türk edebiyatı bugünlere birçok değişim ve gelişim içinde fikir çatışması ve dönüşüm ile gelmiştir. Değişim dönemi eser ve şahsiyetlerinin genel edebiyat hakkındaki fikirlerini ürünleri üzerinden hareketle birçok kaynaklarda topluca veya kısım kısım ele alındığını görürüz. Ancak edebi hatıralar ve diğer hatıra türlerinde yazılan ve beyan edilenleri bir arada okuma ve inceleme imkânımız, bugüne değin, olmamıştır. Oysa ele alınan meselelerde hatıra türünün anlatım zenginliği, bireyselliği edebî meselelerin dönem içerisinde algılanma biçimi bakımından oldukça önemlidir. Bugün arşivlerde bulamadığımız birçok konuyu hatıralar üzerinden ele alabilmekteyiz. Elbette hatıra türünün kişisel olma durumu göz önünde bulundurularak bu inceleme ve tahlil yürütülür. Araştırma, dönem olarak Tanzimat, Serveti Fünun, Fecr-i Ati ve Milli Edebiyat devirlerini kapsamaktadır. (1860-1923) tarihleri arasındaki şahsiyetlerin evvela edebi başlık altında yazmış oldukları hatıralarını araştırıp bulmak ve incelemek. Yine (1860-1923) yıllar arasında yazılan hatıralar içerisinde edebi fikir ve tartışmaları araştırıp incelemek, bu incelemeler ışığında Türk edebiyatının meseleler ve şahsiyetler etrafında bütünlüklü bir portresini çıkarmak mevzu ettiğimiz problematikin çözümüne katkı sunacaktır. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Thesis NonPeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics,PN Literature (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8e9b965aff42a02dfe563affc2d6fe1c.docx 94118d7272a3ca0160b7aba6de2906bc https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/390dc3b2726772f7e79d695074f05ca6.pdf fdc5dc3ea6b9bc75941a234dbc7da746 PDF Text Text A COGNITIVE PROCESS IN SECOND LANGUAGE ACQUISITION THROUGH SPEECH ERRORS ANALYSES Azamat Akbarov Abstract: Speech accidents can also be evaluated by some psychological constraints as some of the interfering effects of the producing some sounds may cause slip of tongue in the codingencoding process. Such an error is the result of the transposing of initial sounds of two words; what's more, spoonerism as a linguistic deviation refers to the speech errors of L2 learners while it can also be related to the ones of native speakers. Especially errors in the verbal production of the L2 learners stem from some slips of tongue, which hinder the intended message as a result of some psychological conditions, and sometimes they may convey unintended humorous meaning codes. Spoonerisms of the L2 learners are tried to be explained by a psycholinguistics perspective. In this context, the linguistic conditions that sanction the slips of tongue will be explained through cognitive processes. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1401 Title A name given to the resource A COGNITIVE PROCESS IN SECOND LANGUAGE ACQUISITION THROUGH SPEECH ERRORS ANALYSES Author Author Azamat, Akbarov Abstract A summary of the resource. Speech accidents can also be evaluated by some psychological constraints as some of the interfering effects of the producing some sounds may cause slip of tongue in the codingencoding process. Such an error is the result of the transposing of initial sounds of two words; what's more, spoonerism as a linguistic deviation refers to the speech errors of L2 learners while it can also be related to the ones of native speakers. Especially errors in the verbal production of the L2 learners stem from some slips of tongue, which hinder the intended message as a result of some psychological conditions, and sometimes they may convey unintended humorous meaning codes. Spoonerisms of the L2 learners are tried to be explained by a psycholinguistics perspective. In this context, the linguistic conditions that sanction the slips of tongue will be explained through cognitive processes. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available PedActa Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics,PE English,PR English literature https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/69f3f3581ebd1b46fb61978aab2a9124.jpg 849e4785e906e9627eb354544e409449 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1376 Title A name given to the resource Communication Approach in English Through the Internet Author Author Azamat, Akbarov Abstract A summary of the resource. This book is for communicative EFL classes that focus on developing language production skills through using Internet and multimedia resources. Until recently EFL student in-non English speaking country had very limited access to authentic English language materials to study and use in class. With the apperance of multimedia and Internet technology students now have virtually limitless access to a plethora of authentic, educational, informative, and entertaining materials. However, students still need to be taught not only about this tecnology and its applicability to learning English, but also how to research these resources, how to analyze and organize them, and how to use them effectively to develop practical and professional skills in using English. This book attempts to integrate communicative methods in EFL teaching with multimedia applications. Each unit of the book presents theoretical ideas along with effective communicative practice in using these principles for meaningful communication. The activities emphasize meaningful and communicative language production. Students are invited to write and speak in various communicative contexts and to express their ideas, opinions, analyses, and so forth, in extended speaking. The course not only emphasizes development and communicative skills through the Internet and multimedia, but also the development of research and presentation skills in English. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Book Section PeerReviewed PE English,PN Literature (General),PR English literature https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/7b7f4f83dd5ef0c2cdc774b1085a227b.docx 45e7d4c4a1dacbb4bd18314c6813a8d6 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/00b41cf24aa984c150a0776433954939.pdf ba2bdccfdc3a6a44954b2ded2fa66b39 PDF Text Text EFL LEARNERS PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS ENGLISH FOR THE SPECIFIC PURPOSES Mahmut Uğur Arslan, Azamat Akbarov Abstract. In the past, during a language teaching process, focus was on the teacher not on students. Today the attention is given to students namely students’ needs. At every level of teaching English, take it primary school education or tertiary education, the student is at the center. However, when we talk about tertiary education, students’ needs become more specific because they learn English for a specific purpose. Spending 5 years teaching English at a tertiary education institution, I have witnessed cases in which students from faculties come to us and complain that we have not taught them what they need at their faculty departments. They say they mostly do not understand the terminology used in their lectures. They believe that they are relatively good at using General English in both productive skills, but they have problems understanding the English both written and spoken, being used during their lectures. What do the students think? What is their expectation? Since we always say that teaching English can no longer be teacher-centered but student-centered, we cannot neglect which English they need in their faculty departments. The aim of this study is to determine the attitude of students towards English for Specific Purposes and we want to learn their opinions about English for Specific Purposes. Key Words: General English, English for Specific Purposes, Approach, Language Acquisition � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1402 Title A name given to the resource EFL LEARNERS PERCEPTIONS AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS ENGLISH FOR THE SPECIFIC PURPOSES Author Author Azamat, Akbarov UGUR ARSLAN, Mahmut Abstract A summary of the resource. In the past, during a language teaching process, focus was on the teacher not on students. Today the attention is given to students namely students’ needs. At every level of teaching English, take it primary school education or tertiary education, the student is at the center. However, when we talk about tertiary education, students’ needs become more specific because they learn English for a specific purpose. Spending 5 years teaching English at a tertiary education institution, I have witnessed cases in which students from faculties come to us and complain that we have not taught them what they need at their faculty departments. They say they mostly do not understand the terminology used in their lectures. They believe that they are relatively good at using General English in both productive skills, but they have problems understanding the English both written and spoken, being used during their lectures. What do the students think? What is their expectation? Since we always say that teaching English can no longer be teacher-centered but student-centered, we cannot neglect which English they need in their faculty departments. The aim of this study is to determine the attitude of students towards English for Specific Purposes and we want to learn their opinions about English for Specific Purposes. Key Words: General English, English for Specific Purposes, Approach, Language Acquisition Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available PedActa Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed P Philology. Linguistics,PE English,PR English literature