190 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/be9ee1d641005cc3d4a9d381f4e5a06c.pdf b9d79a0721772203bfe7b96765e3ce47 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Tax Policy within Fiscal Policies: Evaluation of Tax Measures Taken Against Economic Crises Recep Tekeli Adnan Menderes University, Aydın, Turkey rtekeli@adu.edu.tr Hakan Arslaner Adnan Menderes University, Aydın, Turkey hakanarslaner@yahoo.com Tarık Ilıman Adnan Menderes University, Aydın, Turkey tarik.iliman@adu.edu.tr Through the history the countries have been examined by economic crises all over the world. After the Great Depression of 1929, the beginning of which is named as ‘’ Black Tuesday ‘’, we again experienced a new world-wide crisis that broke out in the United States in 2008. When it comes to explaining the economic crisis, it is simply a sudden and unexpected downturn in the economy of a country. Primarily, The United States, and then the all countries in the world have been severely influenced by the negative effects of this crisis. With the Great Depression in the United States, it was obvious that ‘’ Market Economy ‘’ that maintained by classical economists couldn’t be competent by itself alone. In that period, Keynesian economists which emphasized the ’’ State Intervention’’ emerged against their classical counterparts. According to Keynesians, ‘’ State Intervention ‘’ is so essential in depression eras. Governments can interfere with ongoing period of depression in two different ways. These are monetary policies and fiscal policies. If a decisive struggle and respond to the crisis are desired, both of these policies must be enforced simultaneously. On the other hand, governments are more efficient to use fiscal policies in comparison with monetary policies, in an effort to control the economy at that cyclical period. However, it is known that fiscal policies have their own instruments which may be listed as tax policy, spending policy and budget policy. Tax policy is the most effective way of all fiscal policies in stages of recession. As one of the main purposes of fiscal policy is to sustain economic stability, tax policies are often used to achieve the mentioned purpose. Hence, this study focuses on the tax measures taken by the governments to deal with the economic crises by giving inner examination of some countries severely hit by the recent global crisis. Overall, the study will elaborate the significance and the impact level of tax policies in crises periods. Keywords: Economic Crisis, Cyclical periods, Fiscal Policy, Tax Policy. 244 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1642 Title A name given to the resource Tax Policy within Fiscal Policies: Evaluation of Tax Measures Taken Against Economic Crises Author Author TEKELI, Recep ARSLANER, Hakan ILIMAN, Tarik Abstract A summary of the resource. Through the history the countries have been examined by economic crises all over the world. After the Great Depression of 1929, the beginning of which is named as ‘’ Black Tuesday ‘’, we again experienced a new world-wide crisis that broke out in the United States in 2008. When it comes to explaining the economic crisis, it is simply a sudden and unexpected downturn in the economy of a country. Primarily, The United States, and then the all countries in the world have been severely influenced by the negative effects of this crisis. With the Great Depression in the United States, it was obvious that ‘’ Market Economy ‘’ that maintained by classical economists couldn’t be competent by itself alone. In that period, Keynesian economists which emphasized the ’’ State Intervention’’ emerged against their classical counterparts. According to Keynesians, ‘’ State Intervention ‘’ is so essential in depression eras. Governments can interfere with ongoing period of depression in two different ways. These are monetary policies and fiscal policies. If a decisive struggle and respond to the crisis are desired, both of these policies must be enforced simultaneously. On the other hand, governments are more efficient to use fiscal policies in comparison with monetary policies, in an effort to control the economy at that cyclical period. However, it is known that fiscal policies have their own instruments which may be listed as tax policy, spending policy and budget policy. Tax policy is the most effective way of all fiscal policies in stages of recession. As one of the main purposes of fiscal policy is to sustain economic stability, tax policies are often used to achieve the mentioned purpose. Hence, this study focuses on the tax measures taken by the governments to deal with the economic crises by giving inner examination of some countries severely hit by the recent global crisis. Overall, the study will elaborate the significance and the impact level of tax policies in crises periods. Keywords: Economic Crisis, Cyclical periods, Fiscal Policy, Tax Policy. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6720f74b8c1b163a24e90cd2be7c207c.pdf 3769cc50c1ab5a3397a100cd76bb98b5 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Effects of Cultural Differences and Politics on Tax Morale: The Case of Italy and Turkey Recep Tekeli University of Adnan Menderes, Turkey rtekeli@adu.edu.tr In this paper we analyze the tax morale in Turkey and Italy, using data from the fifth wave of World Values Surveys. Using Survey data for comparative analysis we can see the differences in several factors affecting Tax Morale between Italy (mainly composed of Catholics) and Turkey (mainly composed of Muslims). The results for the magnitude of tax morale show that Italy and Turkey rank in the highest as compared to other countries within their regions. Thus, this gives a task to explain why tax morale is very high in these two countries which differ in cultures and politics; what determines tax morale and are there any similarities between these two countries in the determination of tax morale level. We empirically test what shapes tax morale by using Ordered Probit model. We have followed the literature but used additional variables to see what determines the notion “intrinsic motivation to pay taxes i.e. tax morale”. Most of our findings are in line with the earlier works in tax morale literature. We agree with the statement that not only trust in the government might have an effect on tax morale (Turkey), but also trust in the court, or the legal system (Italy), and hence the way the relationship between the state and its citizens is established. Also our findings indicate that older individuals tend to exhibit higher tax morale. In line with the previous findings in the literature pride has positive effect on tax morale level in the study countries. The results on religion, indicates that while tax cheating is immoral for Religious individuals in Turkey, we cannot make the same conclusion for the religious individuals in Italy. Keywords: Tax morale; Tax compliance. JEL classification: H26; H30 245 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/7de7da90b79f4fc17f72b968e96aa0e6.docx d657571bb968a223ba4ad4f3521400fc https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/9a34697a8795269288be5c6039fd0920.pdf 79af557814badaac84190e89231ccfbc PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Effects of Cultural Differences and Politics on Tax Morale: The Case of Italy and Turkey RecepTekeli Adnan Menderes University, Nazilli, Turkey rtekeli@adu.edu.tr Abstract In this paper we analyze the tax morale in Turkey and Italy, using data from the fifth wave of World Values Surveys. Using Survey data for comparative analysis we can see the differences in several factors affecting Tax Morale between Italy (mainly composed of Catholics) and Turkey (mainly composed of Muslims). The results for the magnitude of tax morale show that Italy and Turkey are rank in the highest as compared to other countries within their regions. Thus, this gives a task to explain why tax morale is very high in these two countries which differ in cultures and politics; what determines tax morale and are there any similarities between these two countries in the determination of tax morale level. We empirically test what shapes tax morale by using Ordered Probit model. We have followed the literature but used additional variables to see what determines the notion “intrinsic motivation to pay taxes i.e. tax morale”. Most of our findings are in line with the earlier works in tax morale literature. We agree with the statement that not only trust in the government might have an effect on tax morale (Turkey), but also trust in the court, or the legal system (Italy), and hence the way the relationship between the state and its citizens is established. Also our findings indicate that older individuals tend to exhibit higher tax morale. In line with the previous findings in the literature pride has positive effect on tax morale level in the study countries. The results on religion indicate that while tax cheating is immoral for Religious individuals in Turkey, we cannot make the same conclusion for the religious individuals in Italy. Keywords: Tax morale; Tax compliance JEL classification: H26; H30 Introduction Why do people pay taxes? This question recently has started to be pronounced more often and attracted increased attention in the tax (non)compliance literature over the last few years. It is supposed that nobody likes to pay taxes but governments can still generate tax revenues. One possible answer among the scholars is to force people to pay their taxes by establishing a deterrence policy. In line with the economics-of-crime approach, Allingham and Sandmo‟s (1972) model shows that the extent of tax evasion is negatively correlated with the probability of detection and the degree of punishment. However, because of the empirical and experimental findings, their seminal model has attracted many criticisms by researchers. These deterrence models predict a comparatively high incidence of tax evasion; even in many countries, the actual level of deterrence is found to be too low to explain the high degree of tax compliance(see Torgler et al 2010:294; Torgler and Shaltegger, 2006:396). 1 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo In the tax compliance literature this seemed to be a “puzzle”, or in other words, it is indeed an avenue to study further for the scholars. To resolve this puzzle of tax compliance, many researchers have tried to link tax morale to the high degree of tax compliance (e.g., Frey and Feld 2002; Feld and Tyran 2002; Torgler 2001 and Torgler and Schneider 2009). In this perspective, Torgler, (2003:290) argued that Erard and Feinstein‟s work (1994) “demonstrates the relevance of integrating moral sentiments into the models to provide a reasonable explanation of actual compliance behavior”. Also while reviewing the tax compliance, Andreoni et al. (1998:852) suggest that “adding moral and social dynamics to models of tax compliance is as yet a largely undeveloped area of research” (see Torgler Schneider and Shaltegger 2010:294). Following Torgler‟s researches into the field of tax morale, rather than treating tax morale as a black box, or a residuum, many papers have analyzed which factors shape or maintain tax morale (see Torgler and Schneider 2007ab; Torgler and Murphy 2004; and Torgler et al 2010). In addition, this puzzle concerns policymakers because they need to know the driving forces of tax morale and the possibility that it influences willingness to pay taxes so that they can design efficient tax system. In the literature, tax morale is defined as “a moral obligation to pay taxes”, or “a belief in contributing to society by paying taxes”. It is also defined as “the existence of an intrinsic motivation to pay taxes” (Torgler 2003; 2004; Torgler and Schneider 2009; Cummings et al 2009; Torgler 2005). This is not an output variable like the size of shadow economy; it measures individual attitude not individual behavior (Torgler 2004; Torgler and Schneider 2009). Tax morale is also closely linked to the term taxpayer ethics by Alm and Torgler (2006:228) and Torgler and Schneider (2007a:10; 2007b:444) and used the definition by Song and Yarbrough (1978:443) that, “the norms of behaviour governing citizens as taxpayers in their relationship with the government”. Torgler and Murphy(2004:301) defines the concept as “tax morale can generally be understood to describe the moral principles or values individuals hold about paying their tax”1 Why Tax Morale is Important? Stemming from German scholars in the 1960s, Torgler and Schneider (2007a:10-11) argue that values and attitudes can affect individual behavior: Apart from sanctions, Spicer and Lundstedt (1976) argued that a set of attitudes and norms might have effect on the choice between tax compliance and evasion. Lewis (1982) points out that “it could be that tax evasion is the only channel through which taxpayers can express their antipathy … we can be confident in our general prediction that if tax attitudes become worse, tax evasion will increase” (p. 165, 177).” (excerpted from Torgler and Schneider 2007a:10-11). Therefore, we can state that values and attitudes can affect individual‟s behavior. Tax noncompliance is actually inevitable fact in all societies (see Schneider 2005; Schneider et al 2010 and Schneider and Buehn 2013). Schneider (2005:598) argues that most societies attempt to control shadow economic activities “through measures such as punishment and prosecution, or by relying on economic growth or education”. Schnieder (2005), Schneider et al (2010) ) and Schneider and Buehn (2013) have provided estimates of the size of the shadow economies for OECD countries over the periods of time. The first conclusion from these results is that for all countries investigated the shadow economy has 1 Tax morale is sometimes related to the term tax culture. Although it is not well conceptually organized yet, tax culture is defined as all residual factors that have not been considered to explain the behavior of tax compliance. In this aspect, Nerre (2008:155) defines tax culture as follows: “A country-specific tax culture is the entirety of all relevant formal and informal institutions connected with the national tax system and its practical execution, which are historically embedded within the country‟s culture, including the dependencies and ties resulting from their ongoing interaction.” 2 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo reached a remarkably large size and increasing over the years. Also, the empirical results convincingly demonstrate that an increasing burden of taxation and social security payments, combined with rising state regulatory activities, are the major driving forces underlying the size and growth of the shadow economy. In Graph 1, the lowest shadow economies have Austria, Luxembourg and Britain with the size of shadow economy around 10 to 12 percent in 2010. The size of shadow economy in Italy was 26.74% in 2010. The highest shadow economies among 26 EU countries have Romania with 30.9 and Bulgaria 31.9 percent. These countries‟ sizes of shadow economy are above Turkey‟s size in 2010 i.e 29%. The comparison of shadow economies in EU shows an important phenomenon for some countries to deal with. The main problem in the shadow economy, or black economy, is the fact that individuals are behaving dishonestly by providing false information. If so, what would lead citizens to behave more honestly, provide correct information and improve the tax compliance rate? Some believe that tax morale is an answer to this question (see Feld and Frey 2002). Also, Torgler and Schneider (2007b) argue that a reduction of tax morale reduces the moral costs of behaving illegally and increases the incentives to work in the black economy. Shadow, %GDP, 31.9 29 26.7 35 30 25 20 15 9.6 10 5 0 Romania Malta Lithuania Poland Spain Estonia Latvia Mean Finland Denmark Czech… France 20.5 UK Luxemb… Axis Title Graph 1: Size of the Shadow Economy in 26 EU Countries and Turkey (2010) Source: Graph 1 is prepared by using shadow economy estimates of Schneider et al (2013) According to Alm, et al (2004), a negative correlation between the size of the shadow economy, which is a measure of the extent of tax evasion, and tax morale indicates the extent to which individuals‟ revealed actions are related to their attitudes about paying taxes (Torgler and Schneider 2009:230; 2007b). In this extent, a number of previous studies have investigated the simple correlation between tax morale and the size of shadow economy. For example, Alm and Torgler (2006:242) focusing on Europe and the United States find a strong negative correlation (r=-0.460). Alm et al (2006) focused on transition countries and their results indicate a strong negative correlation between both variables (0.657) (see Torgler and Schneider, 2009:230). Torgler (2005) studied in Latin America, and found a strong negative correlation between both variables (-0.511). Torgler and Schneider (2009) find a significant correlation between tax morale and the size of shadow economy. Also, the beta coefficients show that its quantitative impact is comparable to other determinants. Schneider and Buehn (2013) show that average relative impact of the 3 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo tax morale on the shadow economy of 38 OECD countries over 1999 to 2010 is 9,5% and its effect on the shadow economy is -0.21. The conclusion is that higher tax morale leads to a smaller shadow economy. It has been argued that if tax authority places a taxman under every bed it is highly likely to achieve a high level of tax compliance rate but with high costs to the tax authority. Torgler and Shaltegger (2006:397) argues that “even though taxation is enforced by law, there is a moral dimension in paying taxes for many people”. For example, Slemrod (1992:7) “states that methods that reinforce and encourage taxpayers‟ devotion to their responsibilities as citizens play an important role in the tax collection process” (excerpted from Torgler and Shaltegger 2006:397). If tax morale is thought to be an explanation for why tax compliance rates are so high, it would be interesting to analyze what may shape tax morale among taxpayers. Next section examines the magnitude and determinants of Tax Morale. Model and variables which are considered to be important explaining tax morale are presented as well. Section 3 gives the empirical results in Turkish and Italian experience i.e. those countries differ in culture, religion and politics. Last section concludes the paper. Magnitude and Determinants of Tax Morale 1 Magnitude If tax morale is seen as an important factor to understand the puzzle of tax compliance and plays a significant role in determining the levels of shadow economy, then it is necessary to investigate the determinants of tax morale. Thus, this section focuses on the magnitude and determinants of tax morale in the study countries: Turkey and Italy. We define tax morale as “the intrinsic motivation to pay taxes” as defined by Torgler in his papers. This is not physical output variable such as tax evasion or the size of shadow economy. It measures an individual‟s willingness to pay taxes, in other words, “the moral obligation to pay taxes” or “the belief that paying taxes contributes to society”. Data for the tax morale variable are extracted from the World Values Survey (WVS) (see Inglehart et al., 2000). The World Value Survey is a worldwide investigation of socio-cultural and political change, which includes the case of Turkey and Italy. In the 2005 wave of the survey, a total of 1346 Turkish citizens and 1012 Italian citizens agreed to participate in the study. In the survey, our main concern is the question number 200 which is about the attitudes toward cheating on taxation. This attitude was measured with the 10 different scales, where the value of one (1) indicates that cheating on taxation is never justifiable and the value of ten (10) means it is always justifiable. The general question to assess the level of tax morale in World Values Survey is that: “Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between”: V200. Cheating on tax if you have the chance. 1 2 3 4 5 6 never justified 7 8 9 10 always justified Following the literature, the tax morale variable is generated by recoding this ten-point scale into a four point scale (0,1,2, and 3), with the value 3 standing for “never justifiable”. As usual, the value of 0 is an aggregation of the last 7 scale points (4-10), which were rarely chosen (ie, 0 = “always justifiable” to 3 = “never justifiable”; original scores of 4-10 were recoded into 0 = “always justifiable”). 4 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo We should point Elffers et al. (1987) that their findings indicate the differences between actual evasion assessed and evasion reported in survey responses. This result shows that subjective surveys are always prone to significant reporting errors. As argued by some researchers, tax morale is also measured with subjective survey responses in WWS, thus the measurement of tax morale is not free of bias (e.g. Torgler 2004; Torgler and Schneider 2007; Torgler et al 2010). Because the available data from surveys are based on selfreports in which respondents may tend to overstate their degree of compliance (Andreoni et al. 1998), no objective or directly observable measure of tax morale is available. However, the degree of honesty is expected to be higher because in the WWS the tax morale is defined less sensitive than directly asking whether a person has evaded taxes. Moreover, the dataset is based on wide-ranging surveys (based on more than two hundred questions) it was assumed to reduce the probability of respondent suspicion and the framing effects of other tax context questions. However, it can still be argued that a taxpayer who has evaded in the past will tend to excuse this kind of behavior and report a higher degree of tax morale in the survey. As no sanctions are involved in the survey many respondents might overstate their willingness to pay taxes or degree of honesty( see Torgler and Schneider 2007a; 2007b; Torgler and Shaltegger 2006).2 On the other hand, it was further argued that the use of such a single question (single item value) has the advantage of reducing problems of index construction complexity, especially in regard to measurement procedure or low correlation between items (see Torgler 2003; 2004; Alm and Torgler 2006; Torgler and Schneider 2007a). According to Torgler and Schneider (2007a:450) “tax morale is a multi-dimensional concept that requires a multi-item measurement tool and the likelihood of a multi-item index being adversely affected by random errors will produce more reliable measures. However, several previous studies have found consistent results using single-item survey measurements and laboratory experiments”. Despite these criticisms our approach to measuring tax morale is consistent with the previous studies in this area (Torgler 2003; 2004; Alm and Torgler2006; Torgler and Schneider 2007a). Never Justifiable: Cheating on Taxes, 80.50% Turkey Romania Netherlands Great Britain EU Mean Germany Finland Poland Sweden Bulgaria Norway 2 Spain 61.50% 56.93% Italy 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% France Tax Morale Graph 2 Tax Morale in EU Countries(12 EU Countries and Turkey) We should also indicate another disadvantage of working with survey data as argued by Alm and Torgler (2006:237-238) that “we cannot control for such traditional factors as the audit probability (because this is not known for each individual) and the fine rate (because this is identical for all individuals in a country)”. 5 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Graph 2 provides a comparison of tax morale levels of 12 EU countries with the same method. It shows the frequency of response for “tax cheating is never justifiable” with respect to the total respondents and the EU average value for scaled response. The descriptive analysis reveals the percentage of individuals in each EU country stating that „tax evasion is never justifiable‟ (i.e., those with the highest level of tax morale) and the mean level of tax morale among EU countries. Turkey with 80.50% shows a higher proportion of never justifiable response than that of EU average (57%). Italy‟s level of tax morale was above EU average. The lowest level of tax morale is observed for France and Norway. In sum, the results for the magnitude of tax morale show that Italy and Turkey rank in the highest as compared to other countries within their regions. Thus, this gives a task to explain why tax morale is high in these two countries; what determines tax morale and are there any similarities between these two countries in the determination of tax morale level. Although two countries with very different cultures and a different history and politics, a comparison of tax morale and compliance between Turkey and Italy as a member of OECD constitutes a good experiment. 2 Determinants After having discussed the magnitude of tax morale in EU countries, the question of the determinants of tax morale in Turkey and in Italy arises. 2.1 Model and Variables The empirical analysis in this paper focuses on tax morale which is influenced by a variety of factors. In empirical analysis social, demographic and economic factors as well as national pride or religiosity play a role in determining tax morale in a society. Also, “there is the institutional arrangement in which the government works. Here, the extent of democratic participation (possibilities) by taxpayers as well as the level of institutional and political trust is decisive. Tax morale is driven by the acceptance of government decisions.” (see Torgler and Shaltegger 2006:397). Our main model for predicting tax morale in the study countries has the following structure: TM i   1 TRUSTi   2 PRIDEi   3 POLi   3 HAPPYi   X  k k i 1 where TM denotes the individual degree of tax morale in a respected country; Our key independent variables TRUST denotes individual‟s trust in authority; PRIDE denotes pride of individual; POL is individual‟s political and pro-democratic attitudes, HAPPY denotes individual‟s wellbeing (happiness) and Xis a vector of variables whichdenotes numerous socioeconomics and control variables such as age, gender, marital status, education, awareness, employment and occupational status. Our choice of independent variables is in line with the literature. Torgler and Shaltegger (2006) discuss the studies using the factors to explain the determinants of tax morale in various countries. The dependent variable in our study is Tax Morale (TMi) and the applied econometric method is Ordered Probit models. The tax morale variable is scaled dependent variable and hence the ordered probit models help to analyze the ranking information of this variable (Torgler 2006). Following Cummings et al (2009) answers of “don‟t know” and missing values were not coded and dropped from the sample. As the estimated equation has a nonlinear form only the sign of the coefficient can be directly interpreted. Calculating the marginal effects is therefore a method to find the quantitative effect of independent variable has on tax morale. The marginal effect indicates the change in the share of 6 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo taxpayers (or the probability of) belonging to a specific tax morale level (i.e. 0,1,2,3) when the independent variable increases by exactly one unit. We will present only the marginal effects for the highest value - i.e. tax evasion is never justified- from the ordered probit estimation. Table 1 shows the frequency of response for “tax cheating is never justifiable” with respect to the total respondents. Turkey shows a higher proportion of never justifiable response than that of Italy. The Italian sample had the lowest percentage (61.50%) response for that position but both countries had responses for the “never justifiable” position above sixty percent. The following hypothesis is going to be tested by using main variables: Hypothesis 1. The more extensive the citizens‟ trust in the government, in the parliament and the legal system (justice or the court), the higher the tax morale. Hypothesis 2. The greater the citizens‟ national pride, the higher the tax morale. Hypothesis 3. A stronger pro democratic attitude leads to higher tax morale. Hypothesis 4. Tax morale increases with individual‟s wellbeing. In addition to the main independent variables discussed above we also use additional independent variables as controls to more fully explore what factors might determine tax morale in the study countries. Each of these variables, the questions to be answered and expected coefficient are discussed below: 1. Age (+) We will use age as a continuous variable and also treat age as a categorical variable (three classes are formed in the survey: 18-29, 30-49, 50+ with 18-29 as the reference group): Do older people have higher tax morale than younger? 2. Gender (+) (categorical variable: 1= male (the reference group), 2=otherwise): Do gender differences affect the level of tax morale? 3. Marital status (+) [married (in the reference group), single, living together, divorced, separated, widowed]: Do married people have different levels of tax morale than others? 4. Education (+/-)[continuous variable for higher educational level attained: 1= low (never gone to the school), 10 = higher education)]: Do more educated people have higher tax morale level than less educated people? Besides using formal education as a proxy of such awareness, we also constructed a variable to measure awareness to see its effect on tax morale (see Torgler and Shaltegger 2006). Awareness is a categorical variable and measured by following question: People use different sources to learn what is going on in their country and the world. For each of the following sources, please indicate whether you used it last week or did not use it last week to obtain information: Daily newspaper? (categorical variable: 1=yes, 2=no) 5. Occupation status (-) [full time employed (in the reference group), part time employed, selfemployed,unemployed, housewife, student, retired, other]: Does the occupation status of individual influence tax morale? 6. Economic class (-)[we used scale of incomes: 1=low income, 10=high income].: Do the levels of tax morale vary with the level of tax payers‟ income? 7. Religiosity (+): Does the religion make any differences to the levels of tax morale? Empirical results We observe for WVS data that tax morale is lower in Italy than in Turkey. However this purely descriptive analysis gives information about the raw effects and not the partial effects. The observed differences between Italy and Turkey might be explained in terms of differences in socio-economic, political and socio-demographic factors. Thus multiple 7 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo regressions in the next section help us to separate the effects of several socio-economic and socio-demographic factors from a possible culture difference. We estimate separately the determinants of Tax Morale at the individual level for Italy and Turkey.3 1 Empirical results on tax morale in Turkey Table 2 presents the estimation results for Turkey, focusing only on ordered probit models.4. In a next step we test Hypotheses 1–4. We use three trust variables, (i.e Trust in Legal System, Trust in Government and Trust in Parliament), to check the robustness of the trust variables. These variables allow us to analyze trust at the constitutional level (e.g., trust in the legal system/justice), thereby focusing on how the relationship between the state and its citizens is established; they also allow us to analyze trust more closely at the current politico-economic level (e.g., trust in the parliament and government) (see Alm and Torgler 2006). Trust in Legal System/Justice and Trust in Government are found highly significant. However Trust in Parliament in some estimations is not significant while in some estimations it is significant but with a negative coefficient implying that for those who does not have confidence in parliament they have higher tax morale. Notes: Dependent variable: tax morale on a four-point scale. In the reference group: fulltime employed, married, read newspaper, male, lower age group (18-29), Marg.: marginal effect. The marginal effect is calculated at the highest TAX MORALE score. Significance levels are: *0.05 < p < 0.10, **0.01 < p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01 . dy/dx is for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1 and dy/dx for factor levels is the discrete change from the base level. In this table and following tables, variables Happiness, Trust Justice, Trust Parliament, Trust Government, Religious Service Attendance, Pride are rescaled in order to interpret the result straightforward. For example, in the survey, pride is measured on a 4 point scale i.e 1 for very proud 4 for not all. This was recoded into 4 for very proud and 1 for not all proud. In all estimations both trust variables have a significantly positive effect on tax morale with marginal effects varying between 2.5 and 4.7 (Trust in Government) and between 2.6 and 3.6 (Trust in Justice/Legal System) percentage points. Therefore, our study finds support for the notion that trust matters for tax morale in Turkey. An increase in the trust in government (trust in legal system) scale by one unit increases the share of subjects indicating the highest tax morale by 2.5 to 4.7 (2.6 to 3.6) percentage points. As trust is highly and positively correlated with tax morale, Hypothesis 1 cannot be rejected. Specifications show the relative importance of Pride in tax morale determination. In five estimations we have significant coefficient on this variable. As can be seen from the tables, there is a positive correlation between Pride and tax morale. The coefficient is always positive and the marginal effects indicate that an increase in Pride by one point raises the share of persons indicating the highest tax morale value by 3 to 4 percentage points. Thus, the results show that we cannot reject our main hypothesis. The results in Tables also indicate that Hypothesis 3 is rejected. We observe a significant correlation between a prodemocracy attitude and tax morale. As Tables show, a one-point increase in the prodemocracy index reduces the share of persons with the highest tax morale by 2 percentage points, meaning that a higher degree of democracy leads to lower tax morale for the reference group. However, calculating the marginal effects at the lowest tax morale level (i.e, 0 scale) we observe that an increase in the democracy index by one 3 The empirical results on the tax morale can be given on request from the author. See also Tekeli (2011). After the first estimation we have not included variables “trust in the government” and “trust in the Parliament” in the same model because there is a strong correlation between these two variables (r=0.60) that makes it impossible to clearly separate the effects of the two variables if they were included in one model. 4 8 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo unit reduces the probability of stating that tax evasion is always justified to less than one percentage point. Political attitude was tested by the variable ideology, the self-placement in a left-right ideological scale from 1 (left) to 10 (right). It has positive sign but insignificant effect on tax morale. We did not find any evidence to support the view that individual‟s political alignments affect his/her behavior toward taxes. To get a broader view and to consider the fact that a considerable number of citizens have a low living standard (as argued by Torgler 2004), we also include the variable happiness. In all specifications this variable does not significantly affect tax morale. The happiness variablehas interestingly, negative marginal effects but it is insignificant to derive any conclusion from it. Thus our hypothesis 4 cannot be proved statistically. As argued by Torgler (2004:249) it was expected that “if the financial situation of a household is bad, the tax payments might be seen as a hard restriction of their possibility set, which might reduce tax honesty”. In line with this argument we included income variable to test whether individuals in lower income classes are more likely to engage in criminal activities due to their lower opportunity costs, or not. However, in all estimations income variable did not have significant coefficient. We include different employment status such as part time employed, self-employed, retired, and unemployed. In the tax compliance literature, it was argued that self-employed persons have higher compliance costs than employed (e.g., Lewis, 1982). Therefore, Torgler and Schneider (2007b:452) argued that “taxes are more visible for the selfemployed, who have a higher opportunity to evade or avoid them. Moreover, pensions of retired individuals are incomes provided or at least heavily regulated by the state, so transparency is higher and the control better”. However, we did not find significant coefficient on self-employed. On the other hand we have significant coefficients on unemployed and housewife. An increase in Housewife by one point reduces the share of persons indicating the highest tax morale value by 8 percentage points. Our results indicate that the proportion of unemployed who report the highest tax morale is approximately 10 percentage points lower than the one of full-time employees. An increase in unemployment by one point reduces the share of persons indicating the highest tax morale value by almost 10 percentage points. Unemployed individuals might have a higher incentive to act in the shadow economy, which might influence their attitude regarding tax evasion. Table presents evidence regarding the variable religiosity, measured as frequency of Mosque attendance. We first included the variable measured as frequency of Mosque attendance. The result in the first specification indicates that an increase in the religious attendance increases the tax morale around 2 percentage points. To make a comparison between Italy and Turkey we included the variable religiosity, measured as Religious person on a three point scale (i.e 1 for religious 3 for atheist). Robust across all 8 specifications is the negative correlation between Tax Morale and Religiosity variables. We would expect that religiosity might influence people‟s habits, and might make individuals reluctant to engage in tax evasion. Our findings are consistent with those of Alm and Torgler (2006) and Torgler and Murphy (2004), who find that a higher religiosity is correlated with a higher tax morale. Our results indicate that an increase in religiosity increases the tax morale between 8 and 10 percentage points. McGee (1998) reports that the coefficient on Muslim is mostly not significant and also argues that Muslims are not always obligated to pay all taxes. Torgler (2006:94) points that “If the government engages in activities that are not legitimated, tax evasion might not be immoral (for a list of possible immoral state activities, see Yusuf, 1971). It would not be 9 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo immoral for a Muslim not to pay indirect taxes, to avoid paying tariffs, to evade income taxes, or not to comply with a law that causes prices to rise”. Our results on religiosity in Turkey do not seem to support McGee‟s (2006:23) argument that “the Muslim view toward tax evasion seemingly falls under category three that evasion is sometimes ethical”. The result rather seems to fit under McGee‟s first category that “tax evasion is never ethical”. The positive coefficients on education and negative coefficients on gender (woman) deserve special attention. In the models we have run, women do not seem to have stronger tax morale than men but this argument is not proved statistically. Our results show that education does not have any significant effects.5 However, we found that if the reading daily newspaper rate decreases tax morale increases by 8 to 10 percentage points. This result indicates that unawareness has significantly positive effect on tax morale. This result does not change even if we drop education variable from the estimation. It seems that reading newspaper makes individual‟s behavior somehow deteriorated. We cannot say that individuals‟ constraints by their social networks affect tax morale. In tables our results indicate that married people having higher tax morale than singles is not supported by the evidence from Turkey. Actually marital status did not have any effect on tax morale in all estimations. Also, older individuals (third age group in the estimation) tend to exhibit higher tax morale, but the coefficients on age group are not statistically significant in all estimations. 2 Empirical results on tax morale in Italy Next we present the results of ordered probit models in Italy6. In Table 3 Trust in Parliament and Trust in Government are found insignificant. In all estimations Trust in Parliament and Trust in Government did not have significant effects on tax morale. However Trust in Legal System/Justice was found significant in all estimations with positive coefficient implying that for those who does have confidence in Legal System/Justice they have higher tax morale. An increase in trust in Legal System/Justice scale by one unit increases the share of subjects indicating the highest tax morale by 4 to 5 percentage points. Therefore, our study finds support for the notion that trust matters for tax morale in Italy. As trust is highly and positively correlated with tax morale, Hypothesis 1 cannot be rejected for Italian case. Specification (1-5) shows the relative importance of Pride in tax morale determination. Only in one specification we did not have significant coefficient on this variable. We find that there is a positive correlation between Pride and tax morale. The marginal effects indicate that an increase in Pride by one point raises the share of persons indicating the highest tax morale value by 3 to 5 percentage points. Thus, the results show that we cannot reject our main hypothesis. The results in Table 3 also indicate that Hypothesis 3 is rejected. We do not observe a significant correlation between a prodemocracy attitude and tax morale. Thus we dropped this variable from the models for Italy. Political attitude was tested by the variable ideology, the self-placement in a left-right ideological scale from 1 (left) to 10 (right). We did not find any evidence to support the view that individual‟s political alignments affect his/her behavior toward taxes in Italy.7 In all specifications in preliminary regressions the variable happiness does not significantly affect tax morale. The happiness variable has positive marginal effects but it 5 The result on education did not change even if we used education as a continuous variable. See footnote 5, as r=0.67. 7 It has negative sign but insignificant effect on tax morale except for the preliminary estimates. 6 10 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo is insignificant to derive any conclusion from it. Thus our hypothesis 4 cannot be proved statistically. We also dropped this variable from various estimations. As previously stated, we included income variable to test whether individuals in lower income classes are more likely to engage in criminal activities due to their lower opportunity costs, or not. As in the Turkish case, income variable did not have significant coefficient. As argued above we include different employment status to see if it affects tax morale. Robust to all estimations is significant coefficient on self-employed. Our results indicate that the proportion of self-employed who reports the highest tax morale is approximately 15 percentage points lower than the one of full-time employees. The result indicates that an increase in self-employee by one point reduces the share of persons indicating the highest tax morale value by 14 to 18 percentage points. The results are in line with the argumentation that higher compliance costs reduce tax morale. Notes: See also notes in Tables for Turkey. We also included both religiosity variables in separate estimations but the results did not change very much. Also with age and age group separate regressions were run but the results did not change. Table presents evidence regarding the variable religiosity, we also included the variable measured as frequency of Religious attendance it was statistically insignificant but it has positive sign indicating that religious attendance increases the level of tax morale. In addition, to make a comparison between Italy and Turkey, we included the variable religiosity, measured as Religious person on a 3 point scale (i.e. 1 for religious 3 for atheist). Robust across all specifications is the insignificant correlation between Tax Morale and Religiosity variables. As argued above we would expect that religiosity might influence people‟s habits, and might make individuals reluctant to engage in tax evasion. However our findings for Italy are not consistent with those of Alm and Torgler (2006) and Torgler and Murphy (2004), who fined that a higher religiosity is correlated with higher tax morale. We found the positive coefficients on education and gender (woman). In the models we have run, women seem to have stronger tax morale than men in Italy. Robust across all 5 specifications is the significant correlation between Tax Morale and Education variables. Our results show that education has significant effects. We found that if the individual‟s education level increases tax morale increases by 2 to 3 percentage points. However, we found that awareness does not have significant effect on tax morale.8 Also, older individuals (third age group in the estimations) tend to exhibit higher tax morale than younger age groups; the coefficients on higher age group are statistically significant in all estimations9. The proportion of people aged over 50 who report the highest tax morale is approximately 18 percentage points higher than the 18-29 year old reference group (lower age category). The result indicates that an increase in old age category by one point increase the share of persons indicating the highest tax morale value by 14 to 18 percentage points. The proportion of people of the age 30-49 who report the highest level of tax morale is around 12 percentage points higher than for the 18-29 reference groups. In fact we can see from the tables that the marginal effects increase with an increase in age. For example 50+ age group reports the highest tax morale higher than the other age groups. We can state that individuals‟ constraints by their social networks affect tax morale. In tables our results indicate that married people having higher tax morale than singles 8 9 This result does not change even if we drop education variable from the preliminary regressions we run. The result on age did not change even if we used age as a continuous variable. 11 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo supported by the evidence from Italy. Actually, marital status did have effect on tax morale in 2 estimations. The proportion of singles who report the highest tax morale is 8 percentage points lower than the married people. The results also indicate that the proportion of the separated people who report the highest level of tax morale is 18 to 20 percentage points lower than the one of the married people. Conclusions It has been argued in the tax compliance literature that audit rate, tax fine and tax rates have effects on tax payers‟ decision to comply. However over last decades researchers have argued that individual‟s tax compliance behavior cannot be explained by traditional economic analysis considering entirely deterrence components of tax compliance. Tax morale has been used as a residual while searching the reasons why people pay taxes. Several studies argued that tax morale, or „„the intrinsic motivation to pay taxes‟‟, might help to explain the puzzle of why so many individuals pay their taxes. Instead of taking tax morale as a black box or a residuum, a number of studies have examined the determinants of tax morale, and what shapes tax morale or has it being changed over the time in a specific country and/or across the countries over the world. Many social, institutional and economic factors have been found to explain the notion of tax morale, or intrinsic motivation to pay taxes. We attempt to bring together the numerous insights from the earlier works on tax morale by examining many social, economic and institutional factors in Turkey and in Italy. By analyzing tax morale as a dependent variable, our findings give further evidence in tax morale literature. We report a large number of alternative specifications in the tables, and all specifications show the marginal effects of the explanatory variables on the highest value of tax morale (i.e tax cheating is never justified). We found that there are not many similarities between Turkey and Italy in determination of tax morale. While variables pride (+), trust (trust in justice system) (+), marital status [separated (-), singles (-)], self-employment (-), education (+), gender (women) (+) and age (+) are significant to explain tax morale level in Italy, trust (trust in the government and trust in legal system) (+), pride (+), religiosity (+), the prodemocracy (-), unemployment (-), house wife (-) and reading daily newspaper rate (-) are found significant in Turkey. The effects of trust on tax morale were analyzed on two different levels: (i) at the constitutional level (trust in the legal system, or in the court/justice system) and (ii) at the current politico-economic level (trust in the government and trust in parliament). We agree with the statement that not only trust in the government might have an effect on tax morale (Turkey), but also trust in the court, or the legal system (Italy), and hence the way the relationship between the state and its citizens is established. Also our findings indicate that older individuals tend to exhibit higher tax morale. In line with the previous findings in the literature pride has positive effect on tax morale level in the study countries. The results on religion, indicates that while tax cheating is immoral for Religious individuals in Turkey, we cannot make the same conclusion for the religious individuals in Italy. References Allingham, Michael G & Sandmo, Agnar (1972), „„Income Tax Evasion: A Theoretical Analysis.‟‟ Journal of Public Economics 1:323–38. Alm, J., & Torgler, B. (2006), “Culture Differences and Tax Morale in the United States and Europe”, Journal of Economic Psychology, 27:224-246. 12 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Alm, J., J. Martinez-Vazquez & Torgler B. (2006) “Russian Attitudes Toward Paying Taxes - Before, During, and After the Transition”, International Journal of Social Economics, 33: 832-857. Alm, J., Martinez-Vazquez, J. & Schneider F. (2004), “Sizing the Problem of the Hard-ToTax”. Working Paper. Georgia State University: USA. Andreoni, James, Erard, Brian & Feinstein, J.,(1998), “Tax Compliance”, Journal of Economic Literature 36:818–60. Cummings, R. G., Martinez-Vazquez, J., McKee, M., & Torgler, B. (2009), “Tax Morale Affects Tax Compliance: Evidence from Surveys and an Artefactual Field Experiment”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 70:447-457 Elffers, H, Russell H. W, & Dick, H (1987), “The Consequences of Different Strategies for Measuring Tax Evasion Behavior”, Journal of Economic Psychology 8:311-37. Erard, B. and Feinstein, J. S. (1994), “The Role of Moral Sentiments and Audit Perceptions in Tax Compliance”, Public Finance, 49: 70-89. Feld, L. P., & Frey, B. S. (2002), “Trust Breeds Trust: How Taxpayers Are Treated”, Working paper98, Institute of Empirical Research in Economics, University of Zurich. Feld, L. P., & Tyran, J.-R. (2002), “Tax Evasion and Voting: An Experimental Analysis”, KYKLOS, 55:197-222. Frey, B. S. and Feld, L. P. (2002), “Deterrence and Morale in Taxation: An Empirical Analysis”, CESifo Working Paper No. 760, August 2002. Inglehart, R (2000), “Codebook for World Values Survey”, Ann Arbor: Institute for Social Research. Lewis, A. (1982), “The Psychology of Taxation”, Martin Robertson, Oxford. McGee, R.W. (1998), “The ethics of tax evasion in Islam”, in: McGee, R.W. (Ed.), The Ethics of Tax Evasion. The Dumont Institute for Public Policy Research, South Orange, pp. 214-219. McGee, R.W. (2006), “Three Views on the Ethics of Tax Evasion”, Journal of Business Ethics, (DOI 10.1007/s10551-006-9002-z), 67:15–35 Nerre, B. (2008), “Tax Culture: A Basic Concept for Tax Politics”, Economic Analysis & Policy, 38 (No. 1): 153-167. Schneider, F. (2005), “Shadow Economies Around the World: What do we Really Know?”, European Journal of Political Economy, 21(3): 598–642. 13 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Schneider, F., Buehn, A. & Montenegro, CE. (2010), “Shadow Economies all over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007 Submitted to the EPCS 2010”, Izmir, Turkey Schneider, F., & Buehn, A. (2013) Shadow Economies in highly developed OECD countries: What are the driving forces?, The 2013 Meetng of The European Public Choice Society Zurich Switzerland, 3-7 April. Slemrod (ed.) (1992), “Why People Pay Taxes”, Tax Compliance and Enforcement. Ann Arbor University of Michigan Press. Song, Y. & Yarbrough, Y. E. (1978), “Tax Ethics and Taxpayer Attitudes: A Survey”, Public Administration Review 38: 442-457. Spicer, M. W. & Lundstedt, S. B. (1976), “Understanding Tax Evasion”, Public Finance 31: 295-304. Tekeli, R (2011) The Determinants of Tax Morale: the Effects of Cultural Differences and Politics PRI Discussion Paper Series (No.11A-10) Torgler, B., (2001), “What Do We Know about Tax Morale and Tax Compliance?”, RISEC: International Review of Economics and Business 48:395–419. Torgler, B., (2003), “To Evade Taxes or Not: That is the Question”, Journal of SocioEconomics, 32:283-302. Torgler, B (2004),“Tax Morale in Asian Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics,15:237266. Torgler, B., (2005), “Tax morale in Latin America”, Public Choice, 122: 133-157. Torgler, B., (2006), “The Importance of Faith: Tax Morale and Religiosity”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 61: 81-109. Torgler, B., & Murphy, K (2004), “Tax Morale in Australia: What Factors Shape It and Has It Changed Over Time?”, Journal of Australian Taxation, 7: 298-335. Torgler, B & Schaltegger, C. A (2006), “Tax Morale: A Survey with a Special Focus on Switzerland”, Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik,142(3): 395-425. Torgler, B., & Schneider, F.,(2007a), “Shadow Economy, Tax Morale, Governance and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis”, QUT School of Economics and Finance Working/Discussion Paper 210, February 2007. Torgler, B & Schneider, F (2007b), “What shapes attitudes toward paying taxes? Evidence from multicultural European countries”, Social Science Quarterly, 88: 443–470. Torgler, B & Schneider, F (2009), “The Impact of Tax Morale and Institutional Quality on The Shadow Economy”, Journal of Economic Psychology 30 (2009) 228–245 14 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Torgler, B, Schneider, F & Schaltegger, C A. (2010), “Local Autonomy, Tax Morale, And The Shadow Economy”, Public Choice 144: 293-321. Yusuf, S.M., (1971), “Economic Justice in Islam”, Sh. Muhammad Ashraf, Lahore. 15 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1647 Title A name given to the resource The Effects of Cultural Differences and Politics on Tax Morale: The Case of Italy and Turkey Author Author TEKELI, Recep Abstract A summary of the resource. In this paper we analyze the tax morale in Turkey and Italy, using data from the fifth wave of World Values Surveys. Using Survey data for comparative analysis we can see the differences in several factors affecting Tax Morale between Italy (mainly composed of Catholics) and Turkey (mainly composed of Muslims). The results for the magnitude of tax morale show that Italy and Turkey rank in the highest as compared to other countries within their regions. Thus, this gives a task to explain why tax morale is very high in these two countries which differ in cultures and politics; what determines tax morale and are there any similarities between these two countries in the determination of tax morale level. We empirically test what shapes tax morale by using Ordered Probit model. We have followed the literature but used additional variables to see what determines the notion “intrinsic motivation to pay taxes i.e. tax morale”. Most of our findings are in line with the earlier works in tax morale literature. We agree with the statement that not only trust in the government might have an effect on tax morale (Turkey), but also trust in the court, or the legal system (Italy), and hence the way the relationship between the state and its citizens is established. Also our findings indicate that older individuals tend to exhibit higher tax morale. In line with the previous findings in the literature pride has positive effect on tax morale level in the study countries. The results on religion, indicates that while tax cheating is immoral for Religious individuals in Turkey, we cannot make the same conclusion for the religious individuals in Italy. Keywords: Tax morale; Tax compliance. JEL classification: H26; H30 Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ce32a89e61e93d7e9de3864961585bb9.pdf 959254c62f9259249b4d032aaa2a8f4c PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo A Research on Beck Hopelessness Scale of the Students in Vocational School of Higher Education Sebahattin Taş Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey Yusuf Yılmaz Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey yusufyilmaz@akdeniz.edu.tr Osman Nuri Demirel Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey onuridemirel@mynet.com Hakan Çetin Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey hakanc@akdeniz.edu.tr Engin Üngüren Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey enginunguren@akdeniz.edu.tr In this research, it has been investigated the hopelessness levels of students who study at Akdeniz University Vocational School of Social Sciences and whether some demographic variables affect the hopelessness levels of students. 376 students have participated in the research. Beck Hopelessness Scale (BDS) and a personal questionnaire have been utilized in data collection. According to the characteristics of the study group, descriptive frequency and percentage tables of the variables collected by the data collection tools have been created. To investigate the differences between two groups Independent Sample T Test, to compare more than two groups, one-way ANOVA have been applied. To determine which group causes the obtained difference, LSD test from post hoc analysis has been applied. Keywords: Beck Hopelessness Scale, Hopelessness Level, Hopelessness, Vocational School Students, Management. 249 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1579 Title A name given to the resource A Research on Beck Hopelessness Scale of the Students in Vocational School of Higher Education Author Author TAS, Sebahattin YILMAZ, Yusuf NURI DEMIREL, Osman CETIN, Hakan Unguren, Engin Abstract A summary of the resource. In this research, it has been investigated the hopelessness levels of students who study at Akdeniz University Vocational School of Social Sciences and whether some demographic variables affect the hopelessness levels of students. 376 students have participated in the research. Beck Hopelessness Scale (BDS) and a personal questionnaire have been utilized in data collection. According to the characteristics of the study group, descriptive frequency and percentage tables of the variables collected by the data collection tools have been created. To investigate the differences between two groups Independent Sample T Test, to compare more than two groups, one-way ANOVA have been applied. To determine which group causes the obtained difference, LSD test from post hoc analysis has been applied. Keywords: Beck Hopelessness Scale, Hopelessness Level, Hopelessness, Vocational School Students, Management. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/44dc0e3678f7c77a4fa05aca5a59a5f1.pdf 44b9179e1875ad7ca10f6ccf0cd87152 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth Using Panel Data Nihat Taş İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey tasnihat@gmail.com Ali Hepşen İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey alihepsen@yahoo.com Emrah Önder İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey emrah@İstanbul.edu.tr During last 10 years some EU countries had economic instability. They have short and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing, globalization etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic indicators of EU countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Static and dynamic panel data models were used for determining the effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross domestic product (GDP) of EU member countries including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom; acceding country: Croatia; and candidate countries: Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. While dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product (volume), the independent variables are current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation, average consumer prices, population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data (cross sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this research involves 33 EU member and EU candidate countries (units). The effects of 12 macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product volume were examined. The paper also empirically analyzes the negative impacts of global financial crisis (the 2007 U.S. Subprime Financial Crisis) into EU member and candidate countries’ economic growth during the 2002–2012 230 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo periods (time series). In this context, the paper explains what a financial crisis is, the factors that promote a financial crisis, and the dynamics of a financial crisis. Thus, the effects of macroeconomic parameters are analyzed using panel data series. The findings of this research are especially useful for EU candidate countries such as Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey for developing convenient economic strategies. Keywords: European Union and Candidate Countries, Financial Crisis, Macro Economic Parameters, Panel Data Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Economic Growth. 231 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/313b264817e8ad3b4462e90bc049b9ed.docx 22cff80ee2dd758b6438f989e4945b30 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ee3538ef63cc16655be29848ab003edf.pdf d34f239016fa6d644c0d3694bfdd3a86 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth Using Panel Data Nihat Taş Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey tasnihat@gmail.com Ali Hepşen Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey alihepsen@yahoo.com Emrah Önder Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey emrah@istanbul.edu.tr Abstract During last 10 years some EU countries had economic instability. They have short and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing, globalization etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic indicators of EU countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Static linear panel data models were used for determining the effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross domestic product (GDP) of EU member countries including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom; acceding country: Croatia; and candidate countries: Iceland, Serbia and Turkey. While dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product (volume), the independent variables are current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation (average consumer prices), population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data (cross sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this research involves 31 EU member and EU candidate countries (cross sectional units). The effects of 11 macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product volume were examined. The paper also empirically analyzes the negative impacts of global financial crisis (the 2007 U.S. Subprime Financial Crisis) into EU member and candidate countries’ economic growth during the 2002–2012 periods (time series). In this context, the paper explains what a financial crisis is, the factors that promote a financial crisis, and the dynamics of a financial crisis. Thus, the effects of macroeconomic parameters are analyzed using panel data series. The findings of this research are especially useful for EU candidate countries such as Iceland, Serbia and Turkey for developing convenient economic strategies. Keywords: European Union and Candidate Countries, Financial Crisis, Macro Economic Parameters, Panel Data Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Economic Growth Introduction The relationship between economic growth and macroeconomic indicators has long been a popular issue of debate in the literature of economic development. In this content, the primary purpose of this research is to analyze macroeconomic indicators of EU member, acceding and candidate countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Annual 1 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo data are used for the period 2002 to 2012. The sample period is dependent on annual data availability. The data was gathered from the International Monetary Fund world economic outlook data base. Beine et al. (2011) proposed new panel data approach for examined the impact of skilled emigration on human capital accumulation. The data was covering 147 countries during the period 1975–2000. Predictions were tested using dynamic regression models. They found that skilled migration prospects foster human capital accumulation in low-income countries. Bortolotti et al. (2003) determined the reasons why governments privatize, and the size and extent of privatization processes around the world with using a panel of 34 countries over the 1977 – 1999 period. They identified market, budget and institutional constraints affecting privatization. Lee and Chang (2007) applied a new panel data stationary testing procedure in order to re-investigate the dynamic interactions between energy consumption per capita and real GDP per capita in 22 developed and 18 developing countries. They found that in individual countries, structural breaks occur near other variables in both developed and developing countries because of a tight relationship between energy consumption and GDP. Sukiassyan (2007) attempted to empirically evaluate that relationship with data from the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. He examined various dimensions of the growth-inequality debate. His findings for transition countries indicated a strong, negative contemporaneous growth-inequality relationship. Lee and Chang (2008) applied the new heterogeneous panel cointegration technique to re-investigate the long-run movements and causal relationships between tourism development and economic growth for OECD and nonOECD countries for the 1990–2002 period. They determined that tourism development has a greater impact on GDP in nonOECD countries than in OECD countries. Haas and Lelyveld (2006) examined whether foreign and domestic banks in Central and Eastern Europe react differently to business cycles and banking crises. Their panel dataset comprised data of more than 250 banks for the period 1993–2000. They showed that during crisis periods domestic banks contract their credit. In contrast, Greenfield foreign banks play a stabilizing role by keeping their credit base stable. Also they found a significant and negative relationship between home country economic growth and host country credit by foreign bank subsidiaries. Tsoukas (2011) used a panel of five Asian economies – Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand – over the period 1995–2007 for analyzing the links between firm survival and financial development. He found that country-level indicators of financial development have an important role to play in influencing firm survival and large firms would benefit the most from developments in the stock market, while small firms are most severely affected from high levels of financial intermediation. Macro-Economic Indicators Our model comprises twelve variables: while dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product (GDP); the independent variables are current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation (average consumer prices), population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. Gross Domestic Product represents the economic health of a country. It presents a sum of a country's production which consists of all purchases of goods and services produced by a country and services used by individuals, firms, foreigners and the governing bodies. GDP consists of consumer spending, investment 2 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo expenditure, government spending and net exports hence it portrays an all-inclusive picture of an economy because of which it provides an insight to investors which highlights the trend of the economy by comparing GDP levels as an index. GDP is not only used as an indicator for most governments and economic decision-makers for planning and policy formulation; but also it helps the investors to manage their portfolios by providing them with guidance about the state of the economy. On the other hand, it is good measure for an economy and with improvement in research and quality of data, statisticians and governments are trying to find out measures to strengthen GDP and make it a comprehensive indicator of national income. International standards regarding the compilation of balance of payments statistics are described in the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in order to provide guidance to member countries. In a general sense, the balance of payments is a statistical statement that systematically records all the economic transactions between residents of a country (Central Government, monetary authority, banks, other sector) and nonresidents for a specific time period. The balance of payments statistics are classified under two major groups: “Current Account” and “Capital and Financial Account”. In summary, the current account covers all transactions that involve real sources (including volume of exports and imports of goods and services,) and current transfers; the capital and financial accounts show how these transactions are financed (by means of capital transfer or investment in financial instruments). As mentioned in the European Economic series (Current Account Surpluses in the EU, 9/2012, p.10), current account deficits and surpluses are not necessarily macroeconomic imbalances in the sense of developments which are adversely affecting, or have the potential to affect the proper functioning of economies, of the monetary union, or on a wider scale. Deficits and surpluses are a natural consequence of economic interactions between countries. They show to which extent a country relies on borrowing from the rest of the world or how much of its resources it lends abroad. In this way, external borrowing and lending allows countries to trade consumption over time: a country with a current account surplus transfers consumption from today to tomorrow by investing abroad. In turn, a country with a current account deficit can increase its consumption or investment today but must transfer future income abroad to redeem its external debt. Deficits and surpluses can thus simply be the result of an appropriate allocation of savings, taking into account different investment opportunities across countries. Differences in economic prospects lead to differences in saving behavior, with brighter expectations reducing the tendency of economic agents to save and hence contributing to the accumulation of deficits. In particular, countries with a rapidly ageing population may find it opportune to save today (i.e. run surpluses) to smooth consumption over time. On the other hand, current account deficits and surpluses are part of the adjustment process in a monetary union. They absorb asymmetric shocks in the absence of independent monetary policy and nominal exchange rate adjustment. This paper also attempts to analyze the correlation that exists between GDP and inflation. It is widely believed that there is a relationship between the two. The problem is that there are disagreements as to what that relationship is or how it operates. As a result, when governments make decisions based on these pieces of information, the outcome often cannot be guaranteed. Exploration of the relationship between GDP and inflation is best begun by developing an understanding of each term individually. As mentioned above, GDP is an acronym for gross domestic product, which is the value of a nation's goods and services during a specified period. This figure is generally regarded as an important 3 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo indicator of an economy's health. Inflation refers the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling. In determining the economic position of a country is through a comparison of general government gross debt, revenue, total expenditure, national savings and total investments to the gross domestic product of the country. For instance, a low government gross debt to GDP percentage is usually an indication of economic health, while a high debt to GDP percentage can indicate financial trouble for a country. Panel Data Analysis "Panel Data" is set of data obtained by observation of the characteristics of a variety of units (cross-sectional variables) over time (Ahn and Moon, 2001). Panel data set have both cross-sectional and time-series dimensions. The size of the time series is formed by monitoring the same cross-section units during a given period (Wooldridge, 2009). When each subject (cross sectional unit) has the same number of obsevations, this type of panel is called a balanced panel data set. If some subjects have different number of observations, this situation is known as the unbalanced data case (Wooldridge, 2009). Panel data sets that thousands of cross sectional units observed through the time are used in many micro-economic researches (Hill et al., 2008). Panel data provide more informative data, more variability, more degrees of freedom, less collinearity among the variables and more efficiency (Baltagi, 2010). Panel data analysis can be considered as a combination of regression and time series analysis (Frees, 2004). This analysis is based on repetitive variance models because the observations of the units are repetitive through time dimension (Pazarlıoğlu, 2001). The main superiority of panel data due to working with the one dimensional crosssectional series or repeated cross sectional series that same units are not observed through the time is to loosen the standard assumptions (Maddala and Lahiri, 2009). By studying the repeated cross section of observations Panel data can better detect and measure effects that cannot be observed in pure cross section or pure time series data (Gujarati and Porter, 2009). Analyzing the observations of cross section and time series provide more flexibility compared to when used them separately by increasing the quantity and quality of data. In panel data analysis, the cross-sectional units are considered to be heterogeneous and controlled for the variation (heterogeneity). Pure time series or cross section studies which are not controlling this heterogeneity there run the risk of obtaining biased results. Panel data are able to control variables which are subject or time invariant (Baltagi, 2010). Because panel data has time based dynamics with the observations of cross sectional data repeated through time, the effect of unmeasured variables can be controlled (Hsiao, 2003). With the use of cross-sectional observations over time, panel data analysis provides more clarification character, less collinearity and more degrees of freedom and efficiency than only cross sectional analysis or time series analysis (Tarı, 2010). 4 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo In static panel data models, the covariance estimators (pooled panel data), fixed effects and random effects estimators are widely used. When the cross-sectional units are homogenous, pooled ordinary least squares panel model is used. In the presence of unitspecific or time-specific effects, in the case of assuming these effects to be fixed parameters to be estimated, model is called as the fixed effects. The term “fixed effects” expresses nonrandom quantities are accounted for the heterogeneity. If the subject specific effects are assumed random and not correlated with the regressors (independent variables), the model becomes random effects. These effects are included to the random effects model as a component of the error term (Baltagi, 2010). The panel models that do not have any lagged values of the dependent or/and independent variables in the model as a regressor are called “static models”. Fixed effects model and random effects model can be shown as follow: Fixes Effects Model: K yit  i    k xkit  uit , i  1,..., N , t  1,..., T (1) i  1,..., N , t  1,..., T (2) k 1 Random Effects Model K yit    k xkit  i  uit  , k 1 Index i differentiates the subjects and ranges from 1 to N. N is the number of subjects. Each subject is observed T times and the index t differentiates the observation times through 1 to T. K is the number of the explanatory (independent) variables. Analyzing Macro Economic Indicators in Turkey Using Panel Data Variables and Descriptive Statistics In this study, used database consists of the panel data set of 31 countries for the 2002-2012 term. Dataset is a balanced panel and has NxTxk = 31x11x12 = 4092 observations. Each variable has NxT = 31x11 = 341 observations. Dependent variable is ngdp (Gross domestic product, *billion dollars) and there are 11 independent variables. Average value of ngdp for 31 countries is 504 billion dollars. Independent variables and measuring units are listed in Table 1. 5 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 1: Independent Variables and Measuring Units Code bca_ngdpd lp lur Variable Current account balance Population (*10,000,000) Unemployment rate pcpipch tx_rpch tm_rpch ggxwdg_gr Inflation, average consumer prices Volume of exports of goods and services Volume of imports of goods and services Growth rate in general government gross debt Growth rate in general government revenue Growth rate in general government total expenditure Gross national savings Total investment ggr_gr ggx_gr ngsd_ngd nid_ngdp Units Percent of GDP Persons Percent of total labor force Percent change Percent change Percent change Rate Rate Rate Percent of GDP Percent of GDP Descriptive statistics for the variables used in the analysis are shown below in Table 2. Descriptive statistics values are ordinary and there are not exceptional values in the dataset. Table 2: Summary Statistics Variable Obs Mean ngdp bca_ngdpd lp lur pcpipch tx_rpch 341 341 341 341 341 341 503.9614 -.029675 1.858403 .0883615 .0366609 .0511077 tm_rpch ggxwdg_gr ggr_gr ggx_gr ngsd_ngd nid_ngdp 341 341 341 341 341 341 .0469935 1.097167 1.063697 1.066551 .1909255 .2206239 Std. Dev. Min Max 800.7973 .067328 2.357604 .0435064 .0385439 .0796323 4.303 -.28352 .0288 .01014 -.01706 -.23794 3640.727 .11852 8.252 .25552 .45134 .31648 .0990369 .1719402 .0779949 .0766898 .058724 .0508613 -.33327 .814583 .8267854 .7331372 -.04103 .09755 .29259 2.736609 1.470259 1.604453 .34076 .39959 Table 3 below displays the correlation coefficiencies between the variables. Highest correlations among the independent variables are coefficient between tx_rpch and tm_rpch which is 0.80; between bca_ngdpd and ngsd_ngd which is 0.68 and between ggr_gr and ggx_gr which is 0.67. 6 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 3: Correlation Coefficiencies Between the Variables ngdp bca_ng~d ngdp bca_ngdpd lp lur pcpipch tx_rpch tm_rpch ggxwdg_gr ggr_gr ggx_gr ngsd_ngd nid_ngdp 1.0000 0.2523 0.8671 -0.0561 -0.1781 -0.1143 -0.0812 -0.0745 -0.2088 -0.2049 0.0662 -0.2582 1.0000 0.1296 -0.1418 -0.3444 -0.1263 -0.1587 -0.1186 -0.4142 -0.4468 0.6783 -0.5400 lp lur pcpipch tx_rpch tm_rpch ggxwdg~r 1.0000 0.0814 0.0712 -0.0300 0.0121 -0.0601 -0.0224 -0.0700 -0.0444 -0.2228 1.0000 0.0973 0.0952 -0.0401 0.0332 -0.0132 -0.0945 -0.2647 -0.1154 1.0000 0.2085 0.1792 0.2055 0.5445 0.4881 -0.2286 0.1894 1.0000 0.8007 -0.1519 0.5022 0.1830 0.0428 0.2140 1.0000 -0.3249 0.6518 0.3087 0.1004 0.3200 1.0000 -0.1608 0.1003 -0.1634 -0.0270 ggr_gr 1.0000 0.6678 -0.1201 0.4066 Table 4 (continued) ggx_gr ngsd_ngd nid_ngdp ggx_gr ngsd_ngd nid_ngdp 1.0000 -0.1760 0.3872 1.0000 0.2491 1.0000 Figure 1 shows the panel line graph for the dependent variable ngdp. 0 ngdp 1000 2000 3000 4000 Figure 1: Panel Line Graph for the Dependent Variable ngdp. 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 t id = 1/id = 16/id = 31 id = 2/id = 17 id = 3/id = 18 id = 4/id = 19 id = 5/id = 20 id = 6/id = 21 Static Linear Panel Data Models id = 7/id = 22 id = 8/id = 23 id = 9/id = 24 id = 10/id = 25 To determine the relationship idbetween the ngdp and the independent variables, the = 11/id = 26 id = 12/id = 27 effects model and the random effects model static linear id = 13/id = 28 which are the most id common = 14/id = 29 data analysis models are used.id ngdp is modeled as a function of 11 factors. The = 15/id = 30 fixed panel fixed effects model is ngdpit  i  1bca _ ngdpdit  2lpit  3lurit   4 pcpipchit  5tx _ rpchit  6tm _ rpchit  7 ggxwdg _ grit  8 ggr _ grit  9 ggx _ grit  10 ngsd _ ngdit  11nid _ ngdpit  uit 7 (3) �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo and the random effects model is ngdpit  1bca _ ngdpdit  2lpit  3lurit  4 pcpipchit  5tx _ rpchit  6tm _ rpchit  7 ggxwdg _ grit  8 ggr _ grit  9 ggx _ grit  10 ngsd _ ngdit  11nid _ ngdpit  i  uit  (4) i stands for the country number, t stands for the year, uit is the error term for the fixed effects model and  i  uit  is the composite error term for the random effects model. If the country effects are uncorrelated with the regressors, they are known as random effects. In the random effects model, because there is no correlation between the country specific effects and the regressors, country specific effects are parameterized as additional random disturbances. If the country effects are correlated with the regressors, then they are known as fixed effects. If there is no country specific effect in the model, then the model becomes as the pooled ordinary least squares regression which is ngdpit    1bca _ ngdpdit  2lpit  3lurit  4 pcpipchit  5tx _ rpchit  6tm _ rpchit  7 ggxwdg _ grit  8 ggr _ grit  9 ggx _ grit  10 ngsd _ ngdit  11nid _ ngdpit  uit Firstly, the null hypothesis that constant terms are equal across countries is tested to determine if the pooled ols regression will produce inconsistent estimates. Pooling test examines whether the intercepts take on a common value α and also known as the test for heterogeneity. Hypothesis is tested with F test Table 5: Testing for the Country Specific Effects H 0 : 1   2  ...   N  0 F  30; 299   53.51 prob  F  0.0000 The p value is 0.0000. Null hypothesis is rejected. This provides strong evidence for the case for retaining country specific effects in the model specification. So, the pooled ordinary least squares model is inconsistent. The Pooled ols model (OLS_ALL), the fixed effects model (FE_ALL) and the random effects model (RE_ALL) results are shown respectively in the Table 6. 8 (5) �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 6: Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects and Random Effects Models Variable bca_ngdpd lp lur pcpipch tx_rpch tm_rpch ggxwdg_gr ggr_gr ggx_gr ngsd_ngd nid_ngdp _cons OLS_ALL -2262.4661 4370.5294 0.6050 301.64765 8.1437477 0.0000 -1999.2071 453.07528 0.0000 -3815.9149 637.28187 0.0000 300.14161 410.33191 0.4650 -322.03228 394.86506 0.4153 28.853357 123.78207 0.8158 -719.79669 461.1889 0.1195 -5.9833848 356.36172 0.9866 2695.1518 4356.2346 0.5365 -2437.9341 4385.0456 0.5786 956.24528 473.76334 0.0444 FE_ALL RE_ALL -226.33522 1857.8225 0.9031 1307.4635 117.2346 0.0000 -1265.4896 423.61627 0.0030 433.10129 315.38152 0.1707 -96.767791 178.34864 0.5878 53.95787 170.45905 0.7518 64.067478 58.362333 0.2732 80.987428 201.15488 0.6875 -297.12541 160.88146 0.0658 799.33888 1837.575 0.6639 -535.27354 1876.4762 0.7756 -1708.2562 350.40975 0.0000 -1109.0438 2124.4992 0.6017 321.11738 21.354954 0.0000 -1035.926 445.29327 0.0200 -511.81024 345.09672 0.1380 7.3488318 203.62366 0.9712 -49.725872 194.31987 0.7980 50.45071 66.448925 0.4477 -85.169113 229.66851 0.7108 -270.85056 183.05769 0.1390 1138.2268 2106.3063 0.5889 -1057.3717 2146.4956 0.6223 326.62786 303.98464 0.2826 Also, the null hypothesis that the variances of the country specific effects are equal to zero is tested by the Lagrange Multiplier test and the null hypothesis that the standard deviations of the country specific effects are equal to zero is tested by the Likelihood Ratio test. Results are given in the Table 7. Table 7: The Lagrange Multiplier and the Likelihood Ratio Test Results Lagrange Multiplier Test Likelihood Ratio Test H 0 :    0 (Pooled ols regression is H 0 :    0 (Pooled ols regression is appropriate.) appropriate.) 2 i i LM 12  1014.36 12  460.78 prob   2  0.0000 9 prob   2  0.0000 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Because there is country specific effects, pooled ols model shown in the first column is inappropriate. Most of the regressors are not significant. Finally 3 of all independent variables are significant and by using these regressors which are lp, lur and ggx_gr, the fixed and the random effects models are estimated and the results are shown in the first two coloumns of the Table 8 below. Table 8: Static Linear Panel Data Models Variable lp lur ggx_gr _cons FE RE FE_RB 1197.3581 106.32105 0.0000 -1184.4394 333.84411 0.0004 -280.13589 135.07513 0.0389 -1317.7746 252.77713 0.0000 341.39549 26.803482 0.0000 -929.58167 357.12541 0.0092 -349.138 147.50442 0.0179 324.02372 192.98142 0.0931 1197.3581 403.34191 0.0058 -1184.4394 494.79103 0.0231 -280.13589 108.78589 0.0152 -1317.7746 721.32216 0.0777 FE_PCSE 285.99362 23.468885 0.0000 -1825.0088 353.80452 0.0000 -396.77413 124.34375 0.0014 542.47688 150.79341 0.0003 FE_DK 1197.3581 248.13309 0.0000 -1184.4394 230.59185 0.0000 -280.13589 71.993731 0.0005 -1317.7746 474.06457 0.0093 The random effects model specifies the country specific effects as a random draw that is uncorrelated with the regressors and the overall error term. The random effects estimator uses the assumption that the country specific effects are uncorrelated with the regressors and the extra orthogonality conditions are valid. This assumption is tested by using Hausman test and the results are given in Table 9. Table 9: Hausman Specification Test Results Variable Fixed Effects (b) Random Effects (B) Difference (b-B) lp lur ggx_gr 1197.36 -1184.44 -280.14 .341.40 -929.58 -349.14 855.96 -254.86 69.00 H 0 : Differences in coefficients are not systematic. (the RE estimator is consistent) 1 32   b  B  Vb  VB    b  B   67.83 prob   2  0.0000 The Hausman test’s null hypothesis is rejected. Country specific effects are correlated with the regressors. Because the random effects estimator is inconsistent, the fixed effects model is the appropriate one. 10 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Before using the fixed effects model, diagnostic tests for the model assumption must be performed. The most important assumptions of the fixed effects estimator are homoscedasticity, no serial correlation and no contemporaneous correlation. Testing for homoscedasticity is performed by using modified Wald test for the null hypothesis of homoscedasticity against the heteroscedastic alternative. Testing for serial correlation is performed by using Baltagi-Wu locally best invariant test, modified Bhargava et.al. Durbin Watson test and Wooldridge’s serial correlation test respectively. For testing the absence of the contemporaneous correlation assumption, Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier test, Pesaran CD test, Friedman’s R test and Frees’ Q test are performed. Test results are given below in Table 10. Table 10: Results of the Diagnostic Tests Test Homoscedasticity Modified Wald Hypothesis Test Statistic Probability H 0 :  i2   2 312  5.8*105 Baltagi-Wu LBI. H0 :   0 LBI  0.8299 Modif. Bhargavaet.al. DW H0 :   0 DW  0.4144 Wooldridge’s Serial Correlation H 0 : No first order serial F1;30  909.67 p  F1;30  0.0000 2  465  1838.14 2 p   465  0.0000 p  312  0.0000 Serial Correlation correlation Contemporaneous Correlation Breusch-Pagan LM H 0 : No contemporaneous Pesaran CD correlation H 0 : No contemporaneous CD  22.53 p  CD  0.0000 Friedman’s R correlation H 0 : No contemporaneous R  106.31 p  R  0.0000 Frees’ Q correlation H 0 : No contemporaneous Qtest  7.89 correlation Critical Values from Frees’ Q distribution:   0.10 : 0.2333   0.05 : 0.3103   0.01 : 0.4649 Because the Modified Wald test p value is 0.0000, the null hypothesis is rejected and the model has heteroscedasticity. For serial correlation, Wooldridge’ serial correlation F test statistic is 909.67 and the p value is 0.0000. Model has serial correlation problem. Additionally both Baltagi-Wu LBI. and modified Bhargava et. al. DW serial correlation test statistics which are 0.8299 and 0.4144 respectively indicate that the model has serial correlation problem. All tests performed for the contemporenaous correlation point that there is cross sectional correlation in the model. 11 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The last three columns of the Table 6 shows the fixed effects model with the Huber-White standard errors that is robust to heteroscedasticity and serial correlation (FE_RB); the fixed effects model with panel corrected standard errors that is robust to heteroscedasticity and the cross sectional (contemporaneous) correlation (FE_PCSE); the fixed effects model with the Driskoll-Kraay standard errors that is robust to the heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and to the cross sectional correlation (FE_DK). FE, FE_RB and the FE_DK models have the same coefficient estimates with the different standard errors. The FE_PCSE model has different coefficient estimates from the other three models. Finally, because of the violations of the assumptions and the nature of the model estimators, the last model can be used to interpret the relationship between the dependent variable and the regressors (independent variables). The coefficient of lp (1197.36) indicates that if the population increases 10 million, the dependent variable gross domestic product (ngdp) increases about 1.2 billion dollars. Because the coefficient of lur is -1184.44, if the unemployment rate increases 1%, the gross domestic product decreases about -11.84 billion dollars. The estimated coefficient of the ggx_gr is -280.14 and it can be interpreted as if the growth rate in general government total expenditures increases 1%, the gross domestic product decreases about -2.80 billion dollars. Conclusion and suggestions In this paper the authors used panel data approach to analyze the individual effect of some of the key macroeconomic indicators (current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation (average consumer prices), population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services) on economic growth (GDP) of EU, acceding and candidate countries over during the 2002– 2012 period. The main findings of static model indicate that level of population positively affects economic growth. That is, 10 million increase in population leads to rise in GDP over 1.2 trillion dollars. Whereas the level of unemployment rate and total expenditure negatively affect economic growth. One percent increase in the unemployment rate decreases GDP by 11.8 billion dollars and one percent increase in the total expenditure decreases GDP by 2.80 billion dollars. References Ahn, S. C., Moon, H. R. (2001). Large-N and Large-T Properties of Panel Data Estimators and the Hausman Test”, USC CLEO Research Paper, No. C01-20. Baltagi, B. H. (2010). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Fourth Edition, John Wiley&Sons Ltd, 2010. Beine, M., Docquier, F., Oden-Defoort, C. (2011). A Panel Data Analysis of the Brain Gain. World Development (39), 4, 523–532. 12 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Bortolotti, B., Fantini, M., Siniscalco, D. (2003). Privatisation around the world: evidence from panel data. Journal of Public Economics, 88, 305 – 332. Frees, E. W. (2004). Longitudinal and Panel Data, Analysis and Applications in the Social Sciences, New York, Cambridge University Press. Gujarati, D. N., Porter, D. C., (2009). Basic Econometrics, Fifth Edition, McGraw Hill, New York. Haas, R. de, Lelyveld, I. van, (2006). Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis. Journal of Banking & Finance 30, 1927– 1952. Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E., Lim, G. C. (2008). Principles of Econometrics, 3rd press, John Wiley & Sons. Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data, 2nd press, New York, Cambridge University Press, 2003. Maddala, G.S., Lahiri, K. (2009). Introduction to Econometrics, 4th press., West Sussex, John Wiley & Sons. Lee, C. C., Chang, C. P., (2007). Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A panel analysis of developed and developing countries. Energy Economics, 29, 1206 – 1223. Lee, C. C., Chang, C. P., (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management 29 (2008) 180 – 192. Pazarlıoğlu, M.V. (2001). 1980-1990 Döneminde Türkiye’de İç Göç Üzerine Ekonometrik Model Çalışması”, V. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana (In Turkish). Sukiassyan, G. (2007). Inequality and growth: What does the transition economy data say? Journal of Comparative Economics, 35, 35–56. Tari, R. (2010). Ekonometri, Extended 6th press, Umuttepe Kitabevi, Kocaeli, (In Turkish). Tsoukas, S., (2011). Firm survival and financial development: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35, 1736–1752. Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Introductory Econometrics, 4th press, Canada, South Western 13 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1585 Title A name given to the resource Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth Using Panel Data Author Author TAS, Nihat HEPSEN, Ali ONDER, Emrah Abstract A summary of the resource. During last 10 years some EU countries had economic instability. They have short and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing, globalization etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic indicators of EU countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Static and dynamic panel data models were used for determining the effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross domestic product (GDP) of EU member countries including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom; acceding country: Croatia; and candidate countries: Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. While dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product (volume), the independent variables are current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation, average consumer prices, population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data (cross sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this research involves 33 EU member and EU candidate countries (units). The effects of 12 macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product volume were examined. The paper also empirically analyzes the negative impacts of global financial crisis (the 2007 U.S. Subprime Financial Crisis) into EU member and candidate countries’ economic growth during the 2002–2012 crisis is, the factors that promote a financial crisis, and the dynamics of a financial crisis. Thus, the effects of macroeconomic parameters are analyzed using panel data series. The findings of this research are especially useful for EU candidate countries such as Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey for developing convenient economic strategies. Keywords: European Union and Candidate Countries, Financial Crisis, Macro Economic Parameters, Panel Data Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Economic Growth. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/79559c3479101bd2a7a8babd59a9b1ef.pdf 1835c912deeb6e7693617dec4e979039 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Collateral of the Rising Public Diplomacy in Turkey: The Presidency of Religious Affairs and the Religious Diplomacy Burcu Sunar İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey bsunar@İstanbul.edu.tr It has been widely discussed whether Turkish foreign policy has been changing since the Justice and Development Party (AKP hereafter) came into power in 2002. Among the new concepts which signal a probable change in the foreign policy, “public diplomacy” seems to be a significant one considering that AKP has even founded the Office of Public Diplomacy in 2010 within the Turkish Prime Ministry. Public diplomacy, the task of serving national interests through influencing foreign states’ peoples, winning their hearts and minds, instrumentalizes a state’s traits and is carried by many public institutions. Religion is one of the cultural traits of a state which serves public diplomacy with its binding influence on public. For a few decades, the terms “religious diplomacy”, “inter-religious diplomacy” or “faith diplomacy” have been used to indicate the positive impact of religion on diplomacy, especially on “public diplomacy” which addresses public rather than the traditional diplomatic institutions. Religious diplomacy has mainly two meanings. On the one hand, it means establishing an interreligious dialogue between states and their societies. On the other hand, it implies promoting religiously based relations with other states and their societies sharing the same religion. In Turkey, Presidency of Religious Affairs is the main carrier of religious diplomacy as it has started be expressed by the Presidency itself. A closer look at the campaigns and policies of the Presidency especially in the Balkans, Africa and the Middle East in the last decade shows that it complements the government’s public diplomacy establishing religious ties with the states especially which have Muslim populations. The Presidency is organizing humanitarian aid campaigns for Muslims suffering all around the world while participating in the ones the government organizes. In press releases, The Presidency addresses all people and all international organizations to free the Muslims from poverty, injustice and violence. It also regulates the education of the religious personnel who are to work outside of the Turkish borders. The Presidency organizes international programs for those willing to “construct a future based on their cultural 71 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo origins” and “satisfy the religious, cultural, social and psychological needs of the Muslims with their knowledge on Islamic theology.” Looking at the campaigns, press releases, international programs, conferences, seminars and the discourse used in these, the paper tries to show how the Presidency cooperates with the government serving public diplomacy. In this research, the aim is to stress the contribution of The Presidency of Religious Affairs to the public diplomacy especially in the last decade. It can be easily observed that aid campaigns for Muslim populations outside of the border have become a major divisive issue and divided the Turkish population into two as the ones willing to help poor Muslim people for the sake of God and/or humanity and the ones criticizing this argument insisting that Turkey has itself helpless people inside of its own borders. The motivation of the presentation is to point out the insufficiency of the discussion whether AKP unnecessarily engages with Muslim populations outside of the Turkish borders. For a few decades, public diplomacy and religious diplomacy as its complementary have been crucial tools in international relations, and analyzing the AKP’s partaking in humanitarian campaigns outside the borders without taking this viewpoint into consideration would be fall short. Therefore, the presentation intends to remark that The Presidency of Religious Affairs with the religious diplomacy it carries has also been an element in international relations for a while and analysis on AKP’s foreign policy should also pay attention to this religious diplomacy dimension as a part of public diplomacy strategy. Keywords: Public Diplomacy, Religious Diplomacy, the Presidency of Religious Affairs, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Foreign Policy 72 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c032f650c0accefd4dd12b144c2b1653.docx 31428a3ddc706efc0de10af1f0c9ee11 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/a18e220dec61ad9f2b9a01a4c286dd16.pdf 81c9122fc27c15c470514ec935445de9 PDF Text Text International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo The Collateral of the Rising Public Diplomacy in Turkey: The Presidency of ReligiousAffairs and the ReligiousDiplomacy BurcuSunar İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey bsunar@İstanbul.edu.tr Abstract It has been widely discussed whether Turkish foreign policy has been changing since the Justice and Development Party (AKP hereafter) came into power in 2002. Among the new concepts which signal a probable change in the foreign policy, “public diplomacy” seems to be a significant one considering that AKP has even founded the Office of Public Diplomacy in 2010 within the Turkish Prime Ministry. Public diplomacy, the task of serving national interests through influencing foreign states’ peoples, winning their hearts and minds, instrumentalizes a state’s traits and is carried by many public institutions. Religion is one of the cultural traits of a state which serves public diplomacy with its binding influence on public. For a few decades, the terms “religious diplomacy”, “inter-religious diplomacy” or “faith diplomacy” have been used to indicate the positive impact of religion on diplomacy, especially on “public diplomacy” which addresses public rather than the traditional diplomatic institutions. Religious diplomacy has mainly two meanings. On the one hand, it means establishing an interreligious dialogue between states and their societies. On the other hand, it implies promoting religiously based relations with other states and their societies sharing the same religion. In Turkey, the Presidency of Religious Affairs is the main carrier of religious diplomacy as it has started be expressed by the Presidency itself. A closer look at the campaigns and policies of the Presidency especially in the Balkans, Africa and the Middle East in the last decade shows that it complements the government’s public diplomacy establishing religious ties with the states especially which have Muslim populations. The Presidency is organizing humanitarian aid campaigns for Muslims suffering all around the world while participating in the ones the government organizes. In press releases, The Presidency addresses all people and all international organizations to free the Muslims from poverty, injustice and violence. It also regulates the education of the religious personnel who are to work outside of the Turkish borders. The Presidency organizes international programs for those willing to “construct a future based on their cultural origins” and “satisfy the religious, cultural, social and psychological needs of the Muslims with their knowledge on Islamic theology.” Looking at the campaigns, press releases, international programs, conferences, seminars and the discourse used in these, the paper tries to show how the Presidency cooperates with the government serving public diplomacy. In this presentation, the aim is to stress the contribution of The Presidency of Religious Affairs to the public diplomacy especially in the last decade. It can be easily observed that aid campaigns for Muslim populations outside of the border have become a major divisive issue and divided the Turkish population into two as the ones willing to help poor Muslim people for the sake of God and/or humanity and the ones criticizing this argument insisting that Turkey has itself helpless people inside of its own borders. The motivation of the presentation is to point out the insufficiency of the discussion whether AKP unnecessarily engages with Muslim populations outside of the Turkish borders. For a few decades, public diplomacy and religious diplomacy as its complementary have been crucial tools in 108 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo international relations, and analyzing the AKP’s partaking in humanitarian campaigns outside the borders without taking this viewpoint into consideration would be fall short. Therefore, the presentation intends to remark that The Presidency of Religious Affairs with the religious diplomacy it carries has also been an element in international relations for a while and analysis on AKP’s foreign policy should also pay attention to this religious diplomacy dimension as a part of public diplomacy strategy. Keywords: Public Diplomacy, Religious Diplomacy, The Presidency of Religious Affairs, The Justice and Development Party (AKP), Foreign Policydemocracy. Introduction It is a common conviction that the states are not the only actors in international relations anymore. New actors are eager to take part in international relations while the old sole state has been transforming and learning to get along well with the new actors. The Presidency of Religious Affairs (DIB) is one of these new actors which has been working closely connected with the implementation of the Turkish foreign policy since the AKP era began. DIB is so active in international arena that Mehmet Görmez, the President of DIB, stated that a religious diplomacy was born recently. The paper will at first mention the new concepts which make the new actors’ emergence possible, namely the public diplomacy and soft power. Then it will be showed how DIB acts in parallel with the AKP’s understanding of foreign policy and international relations. It will therefore be argued that the role of DIB as an actor in Turkish foreign policy should be analyzed in detail and taken into consideration to understand AKP’s foreign policy. The New Comrades Public Diplomacy and Soft Power, and Their Religious Supporter Public diplomacy is “an international actor’s attempt to manage the international environment through engagement with a foreign public”, while traditional diplomacy is “an international actor’s attempt to manage the international environment through engagement with another international actor” (Cull, 2009, p. 12). This definition of Nicholas Cull, who is a leading scholar working on public diplomacy, raises questions on the nature of being an international actor, the nature of the international environment, the nature of an “attempt” and “engagement” and so on. All these concepts have been changing in a way that embracing a wider space in international relations. The beginning of this change can be dated back to the end of the Cold War, an era which transformed the international system and introduced new concepts, actors and visions on how international politics have been conducted. The paper does not aim to scan all aspects of this transformation since the late 1980s but intends to focus on one comprehensive notion which paves the way for the formulation and application of public diplomacy. “Soft power”, as Joseph Nye coined the term in 1990 and described in detail in 2004, is “the second face of power” which does not differ in the final goal but in means comparing hard power. According to Nye, soft power is the ability to set the agenda and attract the others in world politics to convince them that they want the outcomes that you want. 109 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Shaping the people’s preferences winning their hearts and minds, soft power uses a different currency than force or money to engender cooperation-“an attraction to shared values and the justness and the duty of contributing to the achievement of those values” (Nye, 2004, p. 5-7). A state has three main resources to become a soft power which are cultural values, political values and the foreign policies which are seen legitimate and having moral authority (p. 11). Then public diplomacy is obviously a mechanism that serves a soft power to convince the other societies that the cultural and political values of that power are desirable for all and therefore its foreign policies should be supported. Religion is one of the cultural values of a state that can be used to create a dialogue with the foreign societies. Religious diplomacy, faith diplomacy or inter-religious diplomacy as used in the literature, has the potential of both influencing the people sharing the same religion and at the same time promoting an interreligious dialogue which may surpass some political problems1. For a well-known scholar Douglas Johnston, religious diplomacy is, just like a trump card, “a key resource to be used at the opportune moment”. While it signifies the end of a period of narrow power politics in which religious factors have intentionally being excluded from policy maker’s calculus, it also suggests a new goal for realist politics which is to understand how religion shapes the worldviews and political aspirations of others (2003, p. xi-xii). It should also be mentioned that behind the rising of the religious facet of public diplomacy, the common assessment that there is “a resurgence of religion” in world plays a vital role2. The signals that religion is coming back to the societies and so to the politics directed the policy makers to analyze and produce policies to live with it. Considering that AKP, a party which is known for its Islamic past and which describes itself as conservative, openly sympathizes with the Ottoman Empire, religious diplomacy as a rising value in international relations offers critical opportunities for AKP to conduct a timely foreign policy. The Turkish Case: A Conservative Government Wants to Make Turkey a Soft Power and Calls the Presidency of Religious Affairs for Help Public diplomacy is a recent notion in Turkey which in fact came into question with the foundation of the Office of Public Diplomacy (Kamu Diplomasisi Koordinatörlüğü, KDK hereafter) in 2010 within the Turkish Prime Ministry. KDK describes its mission as to increase Turkey’s visibility and efficiency in international public opinion and to coordinate governmental and non-governmental organizations to improve Turkey’s reputation. KDK actively organizes meetings, conferences, seminars, workshops etc. in the fields such as science and technology, foreign aids, economy, higher education, tourism, culture, art, media, and strengthens Turkey’s communication with the world (Hedefler, 2010). It is not a coincidence that the KDK was established during the AKP government whose foreign policy has been discussed a lot inside Turkey mostly on the basis of the new terminology that Ahmet Davutoğlu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, introduced. Although the aim of the paper is not to discuss AKP’s foreign policy in detail, it is a must to indicate that the vision 1 Inthispaper, inter-religiousaspect of religiousdiplomacy is not included. The main motivation of thepaper is tolook at theDIB’sactivitiestowardstheMuslims. Yet, theproject of “Alliance of Civilizations”, a keydimension of AKP’sforeignpolicy, is a perfectexample of inter-religiousdiplomacy. 2 Formoreinformation on thediscussion on theresurgence of religion, seeThomas, S. M. (2005). The Global Resurgence of ReligionandtheTransformation of International Relations, New York: PalgraveMacmillan. 110 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo and the mission of the KDK is closely connected to the vision and mission of AKP, which is to make Turkey a global but soft power3. KDK does not actually make a direct reference to the DIB. Yet vision of AKP’s foreign policy and the KDK clearly shows that the DIB has a unique role as the religious body of a future soft power4. According to Görmez, the effects of religious values have been increasing all over the world and a “religious diplomacy” was born. There are now ties between all religious bodies and these ties have started to affect the future of the societies. Therefore it is a must for DIB to give religious education and service outside of Turkey (Diyanet İşleri Başkanı Görmez’den Çarpıcı Tespit, 2012). DIB is one of the main team-mates of KDK in almost all foreign organizations. The foreign service team generally includes KDK, DIB, Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (Türk İşbirliği ve Koordinasyon Ajansı Başkanlığı, TİKA), Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities (Yurtdışı Türkler ve Akraba Topluluklar Başkanlığı, YTB) and Kızılay. Representatives of these institutions conduct joint humanitarian aid and development campaigns in especially Balkans, Middle East, Caucasus and Africa. DIB also works with another strategic institution of public diplomacy which is Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT) since 2012. TRT and DIB signed a protocol to start the broadcasting of a new channel, TRT Diyanet TV (TRT Diyanet TV Ramazan Ayında Yayında, 2012). In addition it is possible to see that DIB and other state/government institutions organize joint conferences and organizations, and they host one another in a way that they give each other an opportunity to express their own point of view. For instance it is not a surprise to observe that Erdoğan, The Prime Minister, makes the opening speech in the Second African Muslim Religious Leaders Summit which DIB hosts. In his speech that he started with besmele (in the name of God) he mentioned the brotherhood of Turkey and Africa, the common history and civilization, cooperation and affection between two communities etc (İslamofobia Lanetlenmesi Gereken Bir Suçtur, 2012). Moreover, the President of DIB usually accompanies Erdoğan and other party members in their visits to abroad for humanitarian campaigns, for the openings of places such as mosques and student dormitories, for iftars (the breaking of the fast) in Ramadan, for contributing conflict resolution where needed etc. For example, the President of DIB was in the group of officials who went to Indonesia after the tsunami. His presence was needed, with the words of Erdoğan, to be able to evaluate the moral aspect of the disaster (Başbakan Erdoğan Tsunami Felaketinin Yaşandığı Güney Asya’ya Gitti, 2005). 3 For more information on AKP’s foreign policy, please see the following articles of Davutoğlu:Davutoğlu, A. (2008). Turkey’s Foreign Policy Vision: An Assessment of 2007.Insight Turkey, 10, 2008, 77-96; Davutoğlu, A. (2010). Turkey’s Zero Problems Foreign Policy.Foreign Policy.Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/05/20/turkeys_zero_problems_foreign_policy 4 DIB was established in 1924. According to the Article 136 of 1982 Constitution, “The Presidency of Religious Affairs, which takes place in the general administration,is responsible for the execution of the duties specified in the special law inorder to provide national unity and solidarity, and remain separate from allpolitical views and thoughts in accordance with the principle of secularism.” The article “About the Presidency of Religious Affairs, its Establishment and Obligations” states the DIB’s duties and responsibilities as follows: “to execute the works concerning the beliefs, worship, and ethics of Islam, enlighten the public about their religion, and administer the sacred worshipping places.”Basic Principles, Aims and Objectives.DiyanetİşleriBaşkanlığı.(2013). Retrieved May 1, 2013, fromhttp://www.diyanet.gov.tr/english/tanitim.asp?id=13 111 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo In order to understand the vision of DIB’s foreign activities, they should be examined together with the AKP’s foreign policy. First of all, it should be noticed that AKP’s foreign policy, according to the discourse party members used, is based on moral and humanitarian values. They argue that reason itself is not adequate in international relations unless it is supported with virtue, honor and the sacredness of human being. Therefore AKP states that all these values are the key motivators of their foreign policy and the Party accuses the developed, Western, modern world of lying only on reason and excluding these values (Sarkisyan Görüşmesinden Sonra 1915 Mesajı, 2010). DIB is, for AKP, a way to show that Turkey does not seek for hard power only, but cares about human beings and their humanitarian needs. On the other hand, in AKP’s discourse, it is easily seen that the source of the morality and the value of the human being comes from the religion. That is to say, DIB is a suitable choice for conservative AKP to show that they accept human beings as sacred and serve them modestly. For instance Erdoğan points out the famine and despair in Somalia and criticizes the rest of the world because of their thirst for resources. Saying that Turkey does not perceive Somalian issue based on national interests, Erdoğan asks the ones who are indifferent to Somalia the question “which civilization are you a member of?, which faith do you belong to?” (Somali’ye Devlet Çıkarları Nazarıyla Bakmadık, 2011). The President of DIB Mehmet Görmez also criticizes the West because of their failure to see that the crisis in the world is not only economic or political, but moral as well. Religions, according to Görmez, can show the right way to the world to seek for a moral, conscientious, just and equal order. For Görmez, the guilty of the crisis is not the religion but the indifference to religion and its values. DIB in this context is everywhere to foster moral and humanitarian values for all without seeking any advantage (Prof. Dr. Mehmet Görmez Avrupa Konseyi Parlamenter Meclisi’ne Hitap Etti, 2011). As a part of Turkey’s public diplomacy strategy, DIB not only tries to increase the prestige of Turkey, but also it intends to highlight the indifference of the rest of the world. While the literature on the resurgence of religion has already started to expand, DIB with what it is doing indicates what the others are not doing because of their ignorance of religious values. While faith is about to return to the politics, as some feel threatened and some are pleased, for AKP, it is crucial to give an ear to the people who care about keeping the authenticity of their religion, the religious education of their children, the solidarity of their community etc. DIB as the collateral of the government and KDK, functions as a metaphysical and moral complementary in foreign policy. DIB in this context restores and builds new mosques and places of worships, gives religious education all over the world as an indicator of, as Bekir Bozdağ, the Deputy Prime Minister says, the power of Turkish Republic with the Turkish nation behind. He mentions that Turks are maybe the only nation who cares about their places of worship so much and he is so proud of being a member of Turkish nation. For him, mosques are the deeds of a homeland and they are the indicators of freedom (Camiler Memleketin Silinmez Tapularıdır, 2011). With the work DIB has done, it is said that DIB has a visible prestige outside of Turkey (TİKA Önemli Mesafe Kat Etti, 2011). Even though AKP does not agree with this claim, it is mostly argued that AKP has a NeoOttomanist foreign policy. The aim of the paper is not to discuss whether it is true or not, yet it is obvious that AKP often refers to the historical and religious ties with the old Ottoman regions and they even introduce their campaigns as the fulfillment of a responsibility arising from history. Considering that religion was the main regulatory and social value in the Ottoman era and noticing that DIB is especially active in the old Ottoman regions, it is possible to say that DIB is also a means of consolidating power in 112 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo these regions with an empire-like vision. Likewise, Görmez says that “religion is the most crucial belonging that constitutes identity” (Din, Kimliği Oluşturan En Önemli Aidiyettir, 2012). That is to say, religious identity comes before the national identity just as in the Ottoman Empire. Davutoğlu similarly considers Sarajevo as a homeland to have an iftar in Ramadan (Bizim Ruhumuzun Sılası Saraybosna’dır, 2011). Again focusing on the old system in the Balkans which guaranteed freedom of religion during the Ottoman era5, Görmez states that it should be deeply contemplated how the old system were working well and how the current one is not. Görmez also mentions the constraints on the Muslim populations in the Balkans in his speech he delivered in 5th Meeting for the Presidents of Religious Affairs in Balkan States (Diyanet İşleri Başkanı Prof. Dr. Mehmet Görmez, Balkan Ülkeleri Diyanet İşleri Başkanları 5. İstişare Toplantısı’nda Konuştu: “Vakıf mallarının işgali kabul edilemez”, 2011). In AKP’s foreign policy vision, the world is not divided into states since the borders are perceived as meaningless and artificial. The new motto of Ministry of Foreign Affairs is “there is no diplomacy of line but a diplomacy of zone. That zone is the entire globe 6”. According to AKP’s foreign policy, Turkey should be globally omnipresent and omnipotent. While this vision comprises the interest in the old Ottoman regions, it also makes all activities in foreign lands legitimate. If the whole world is subject to AKP’s foreign policy, then the question what Turkey is doing for example in Africa becomes irrelevant. Africa is not farther than the Balkans or Middle East in the eyes of AKP and wherever there are people in need, Turkey’s helping hand would be there. DIB also believes that there are no borders that can prevent them from helping people. Since the whole world and all people were created by the one and the same God, then one should not distinguish between the borders and the people7. Humanitarian aid campaigns to Somalia and other African countries, Arakan and other Asian countries are the signs of this vision. DIB not only raises donations for these regions but also ensures that a considerable amount of the donations are used for the religious services. Erdoğan states that Turkey’s helping hand is everywhere regardless of distance and all state institutions, including DIB, are actively participating in the campaigns because “we are the servants of the same God” and “our prayers are the same” (Başbakan Erdoğan’ın AK Parti’nin 10. Yıl Kutlamalarında Yaptığı Konuşmanın Tam Metni, 2011). DIB is also actively in connection with the Turks abroad especially in Europe. This is again an attitude which points out that AKP and its public diplomacy strategy privileges own people above the nation-states borders. It is known that Turkish people living in Europe are generally conservative and care for the religious services. DIB tries to create a connection with the Turks abroad to teach Islam and Turkish-Islamic culture especially to the ones who were born outside of Turkey and so that they should be a moral model in the society they live (TİKA Önemli Mesafe Kat Etti, 2011). AKP perceives Turkey as a member of the Islamic world. It does not mean that AKP’s foreign policy concentrates only on Islamic geography. Yet, looking at the discourse the party members use, it is easily seen that AKP perceives “civilization” as a key concept, even as an actor, in international relations, and positions Turkey inside the Islamic 5 He describestheOttomansystem in his speechwithoutgivingdirectreferencetotheword “Ottoman”. Hattıdiplomasiyoktur, sathıdiplomasivardır. O satıhbütündünyadır. 7 YTB has thesamevision as well. Theirmotto is “whereverthere is a citizen, cognate, relative of ours, wearethere”. Yurtdışı Türkler ve Akraba Topluluklar Başkanlığı. (2013).Retrieved May 1, 2013,fromhttp://www.ytb.gov.tr/ 6 113 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo civilization. In the foreign policy discourse of AKP, states which have Muslim populations are Turkey’s friends and even relatives and brothers, and it is a must for the states belonging to same civilization to act together in order to stand strong in world politics. Considering that AKP wants to make Turkey first a regional and then a global power, it is inevitable that the role for Turkey in Islamic geography should be a “model state.” DIB in this picture is again quite active in the regions with Muslim populations in a way that trying to surpass the other alternatives and creating nearly a monopoly with the services they offer. Since Turkey is the only secular and modern state in a Western sense among the other states with Muslim populations, DIB represents a more modest and smiling face of a moderate Islam. As it is discussed in the 8th Meeting of Eurasian Islamic Council in 2012, “Turkey is the center of the Islamic world” and so Turkey should act accordingly. In the same meeting, it was announced that a Eurasian Islamic University will be founded and a General Secretary of the Eurasian Islamic Council will be established. What is significant is both of them will be located in Istanbul which is the cultural capital of the strongest Islamic state. Plus, considering that the services DIB provides are generally based on education and humanitarian affairs, this religious institution of modern and strong Turkey does not pose any danger to foreign societies such as oppressing them under radical Islamic rules. Conclusion DIB is a state institution and therefore it is not a surprise to see that it acts in parallel with the government’s policies inside and outside of Turkey. Yet this was not the case before AKP came into power in 2002. AKP has changed or enhanced the function of DIB as the Party discovered the significance of public diplomacy. Now DIB is one of the most important institutions of Turkish foreign policy which aims to make Turkey a soft power at least in its region conducting a religious diplomacy. To summarize the points raised above, first of all, DIB is a loyal team member of foreign service carried by Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Prime Ministry. DIB and other state/government institutions organize joint conferences and organizations, and they host each other in order to manifest that they share a similar vision. DIB functions in a way to ensure that Turkey does not sacrifice its cultural and religious values to enjoy hard power but cares about human beings and their humanitarian needs. As a part of Turkey’s public diplomacy strategy, DIB not only serve the prestige of Turkey, but also it seeks to highlight the ignorance of the rest of the world to show the difference between conscientious Turkey and the others. DIB is again active in the old Ottoman regions to serve people Turkey has historical and religious ties as a part of AKP’s vision of foreign policy. Since borders are not absolute but imagined in AKP’s foreign policy, DIB does not distinguish between the borders and peoples to lend a helping hand. DIB also creates ties with the Turks abroad to teach Turkish-Islamic culture especially to the ones who were not born in Turkey. Lastly, DIB functions as a means to support that Turkey is a part of the Islamic world and is maybe the most powerful one among the states with Muslim populations. Yet it should be noted that this paper does not aim to affirm the connection between Turkish foreign policy and DIB. The purpose is just to point out this new cooperation and its theoretical base in international relations literature. To decide whether this cooperation will be fruitful or not in the long run is not among the objectives of this paper. 114 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo References Avrasya İslam Şurası Genel Sekreterliği Kuruluyor. Diyanet İşleri Başkanlığı Diyanet Haber Bülteni. (2012). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.diyanet.gov.tr/turkish/DIYANET/2012aylik/aralik/bulten.pdf Basic Principles, Aims and Objectives. Diyanet İşleri Başkanlığı. (2013). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.diyanet.gov.tr/english/tanitim.asp?id=13 Başbakan Erdoğan Tsunami Felaketinin Yaşandığı Güney Asya’ya Gitti. AK Parti. (2005). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/haberler/basbakanerdogan-tsunami-felaketinin yasandigi-guney-asyaya-gitti-biz-turki/2929 Başbakan Erdoğan’ın AK Parti’nin 10. Yıl Kutlamalarında Yaptığı Konuşmanın Tam Metni. AK Parti. (2011). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/haberler/basbakan-erdoganin-ak-partinin-10.-yilkutlamalarinda-yaptigi-konusmanin-ta/11793 Bizim Ruhumuzun Sılası Saraybosna’dır. AK Parti. (2011). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/haberler/bizim-ruhumuzun-silasisaraybosnadir/12317 Camiler Memleketin Silinmez Tapularıdır. AK Parti. (2011). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/haberler/camiler-memleketin-silinmeztapularidir/13789 Cull, N. (2009). Public Diplomacy: Lessons From the Past, Los Angeles: Figueroa Press. Davutoğlu, A. (2008). Turkey’s Foreign Policy Vision: An Assessment of 2007. Insight Turkey, 10, 2008, 77-96. Davutoğlu, A. (2010). Turkey’s Zero Problems Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy. Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/05/20/turkeys_zero_problems_foreign _po licy Din, Kimliği Oluşturan En Önemli Aidiyettir. Mehmet Görmez. (2012). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.mehmetgormez.com/indextr/haberlerDetay.asp?ID=141 Diyanet İşleri Başkanı Görmez’den Çarpıcı Tespit. Analitik Bakış. (2012). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.analitikbakis.com/NewsDetail.aspx?id=44752 Diyanet İşleri Başkanı Prof. Dr. Mehmet Görmez, Balkan Ülkeleri Diyanet İşleri Başkanları 5. İstişare Toplantısı’nda Konuştu: “Vakıf mallarının işgali kabul edilemez”.Diyanet İşleri Başkanlığı. (2011). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.diyanet.gov.tr/turkish/diyanetyeni/Diyanet-Isleri-Baskanligi-Duyuru9342.aspx Faaliyet Raporu 2012. Diyanet İşleri Başkanlığı. (2013). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.diyanet.gov.tr/turkish/tanitim/rapor_ms2010.pdf Hedefler. Kamu Diplomasisi Koordinatörlüğü. (2010). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://kdk.gov.tr/kurumsal/hedefler/9 İslamofobia Lanetlenmesi Gereken Bir Suçtur. AK Parti. (2011). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/haberler/2.-afrika-kitasi-dini-liderler-zirvesibasladi/16198 Jonhston, D. (Ed.). (2003). Faith-Based Diplomacy Trumping Realpolitik. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Nye, Joseph S. (2004). Soft Power: The Means To Success in World Politics. New York: Public Affairs. Prof. Dr. Mehmet Görmez Avrupa Konseyi Parlamenter Meclisi’ne Hitap Etti. Diyanet İşleri Başkanlığı. (2011). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.diyanet.gov.tr/turkish/dy/Diyanet-Isleri-Baskanligi-Duyuru-9602.aspx 115 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Sarkisyan Görüşmesinden Sonra 1915 Mesajı. CNN Turk. (2010). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.cnnturk.com/2010/dunya/04/12/sarkisyan.gorusmesinden.sonra.1915.m esa ji/571833.0/index.html Somali’ye Devlet Çıkarları Nazarıyla Bakmadık. AK Parti. (2011). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/haberler/teror-dini-ve-irki-olmayan-birolaydir/11869 Thomas, S. M. (2005). The Global Resurgence of Religion and the Transformation of International Relations, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. TİKA Önemli Mesafe Kat Etti. AK Parti. (2011). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/haberler/tika-onemli-mesafe-kat-etti/15533 TRT Diyanet TV Ramazan Ayında Yayında. AK Parti. (2012). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.akparti.org.tr/site/haberler/trt-diyanet-tv-ramazan-ayindayayinda/25648 Yurtdışı Türkler ve Akraba Topluluklar Başkanlığı. (2013). Retrieved May 1, 2013, from http://www.ytb.gov.tr/ 116 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1553 Title A name given to the resource The Collateral of the Rising Public Diplomacy in Turkey: The Presidency of Religious Affairs and the Religious Diplomacy Author Author SUNAR, Burcu Abstract A summary of the resource. It has been widely discussed whether Turkish foreign policy has been changing since the Justice and Development Party (AKP hereafter) came into power in 2002. Among the new concepts which signal a probable change in the foreign policy, “public diplomacy” seems to be a significant one considering that AKP has even founded the Office of Public Diplomacy in 2010 within the Turkish Prime Ministry. Public diplomacy, the task of serving national interests through influencing foreign states’ peoples, winning their hearts and minds, instrumentalizes a state’s traits and is carried by many public institutions. Religion is one of the cultural traits of a state which serves public diplomacy with its binding influence on public. For a few decades, the terms “religious diplomacy”, “inter-religious diplomacy” or “faith diplomacy” have been used to indicate the positive impact of religion on diplomacy, especially on “public diplomacy” which addresses public rather than the traditional diplomatic institutions. Religious diplomacy has mainly two meanings. On the one hand, it means establishing an interreligious dialogue between states and their societies. On the other hand, it implies promoting religiously based relations with other states and their societies sharing the same religion. In Turkey, Presidency of Religious Affairs is the main carrier of religious diplomacy as it has started be expressed by the Presidency itself. A closer look at the campaigns and policies of the Presidency especially in the Balkans, Africa and the Middle East in the last decade shows that it complements the government’s public diplomacy establishing religious ties with the states especially which have Muslim populations. The Presidency is organizing humanitarian aid campaigns for Muslims suffering all around the world while participating in the ones the government organizes. In press releases, The Presidency addresses all people and all international organizations to free the Muslims from poverty, injustice and violence. It also regulates the education of the religious personnel who are to work outside of the Turkish borders. The Presidency organizes international programs for those willing to “construct a future based on their cultural origins” and “satisfy the religious, cultural, social and psychological needs of the Muslims with their knowledge on Islamic theology.” Looking at the campaigns, press releases, international programs, conferences, seminars and the discourse used in these, the paper tries to show how the Presidency cooperates with the government serving public diplomacy. In this research, the aim is to stress the contribution of The Presidency of Religious Affairs to the public diplomacy especially in the last decade. It can be easily observed that aid campaigns for Muslim populations outside of the border have become a major divisive issue and divided the Turkish population into two as the ones willing to help poor Muslim people for the sake of God and/or humanity and the ones criticizing this argument insisting that Turkey has itself helpless people inside of its own borders. The motivation of the presentation is to point out the insufficiency of the discussion whether AKP unnecessarily engages with Muslim populations outside of the Turkish borders. For a few decades, public diplomacy and religious diplomacy as its complementary have been crucial tools in international relations, and analyzing the AKP’s partaking in humanitarian campaigns outside the borders without taking this viewpoint into consideration would be fall short. Therefore, the presentation intends to remark that The Presidency of Religious Affairs with the religious diplomacy it carries has also been an element in international relations for a while and analysis on AKP’s foreign policy should also pay attention to this religious diplomacy dimension as a part of public diplomacy strategy. Keywords: Public Diplomacy, Religious Diplomacy, the Presidency of Religious Affairs, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Foreign Policy Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/97b2aeaf7fd9221c1a7e8b5e204777ef.pdf 432c410d2537e5ce62106e057e0d6ff9 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo An Economic Order Quantity Model For Defective Items Under Permissible Delay In Payments And Shortage Harun Sulak Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey harunsulak@sdu.edu.tr Abdullah Eroğlu Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey aeroglu@sdu.edu.tr M. Ali Avcı Pamukkale University, Denizli, Turkey aliavci20@hotmail.com Mustafa Bayhan Pamukkale University, Denizli, Turkey mbayhan@pau.edu.tr Inventory control models are classified as deterministic and stochastic models upon the condition that the demand is definitely known, or not. Economic Order Quantity Models are among the most widely used techniques in deterministic inventory control models. Economic Order Quantity models have many assumptions that are not satisfied completely with recent economic conditions such as all items in an ordered lot are perfect quality and the payments are made as soon as the items received. In this study, by loosening these two assumptions, a new model is proposed in the case of defective items, permissible delay in payments and shortage. For two case of permissible delay, the optimal values are determined and the effects of permissible delay in payments on ordering quantity and total profit are analyzed. Result of the analysis show that while permissible delay of payment increases order quantity decreases and total profit increases. Furthermore, numerical examples are given for the developed model and changes in the optimal values are analyzed with sensitivity analysis. Finally some previously published results are deduced as special cases of proposed model. Keywords: Economic Order Quantity, Permissible delay in Payments, Defective items, Shortage. 151 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1582 Title A name given to the resource An Economic Order Quantity Model For Defective Items Under Permissible Delay In Payments And Shortage Author Author SULAK, Harun EROGLU, Abdullah M. AVCI, Ali BAYHAN, Mustafa Abstract A summary of the resource. Inventory control models are classified as deterministic and stochastic models upon the condition that the demand is definitely known, or not. Economic Order Quantity Models are among the most widely used techniques in deterministic inventory control models. Economic Order Quantity models have many assumptions that are not satisfied completely with recent economic conditions such as all items in an ordered lot are perfect quality and the payments are made as soon as the items received. In this study, by loosening these two assumptions, a new model is proposed in the case of defective items, permissible delay in payments and shortage. For two case of permissible delay, the optimal values are determined and the effects of permissible delay in payments on ordering quantity and total profit are analyzed. Result of the analysis show that while permissible delay of payment increases order quantity decreases and total profit increases. Furthermore, numerical examples are given for the developed model and changes in the optimal values are analyzed with sensitivity analysis. Finally some previously published results are deduced as special cases of proposed model. Keywords: Economic Order Quantity, Permissible delay in Payments, Defective items, Shortage. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/47698c9e5743c2bc0233c875f89e1a6d.pdf 3e1fd4c51f0e4c379a09874e0e9d52fb PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo International Entrepreneurial Orientation and Performance Outcomes in Export Markets Aytuğ Sözüer Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey sozuer@hotmail.com Gültekin Altuntaş Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey altuntas@İstanbul.edu.tr Fatih Semerciöz İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey fsemerci@İstanbul.edu.tr Global economic integration with the diffusion of information and communication technologies forces many business enterprises to internationalize. This evolution brings opportunities and threats to business management, as well opens up new fields for academic research. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of firms’ international entrepreneurial orientation on their export market performances. Based on the literature, which implies entrepreneurial orientation is critical for market success; this research intends to evaluate the phenomenon for Turkish exporter firms. From year 2000 to 2011, Turkey increased its world share in outward foreign direct investment stock by 146% (UNCTAD, 2012). Besides, Turkey’s total merchandise import and export volume is around USD 400 billions, which constituted 1% of world trade in 2011 (World Trade Organization, 2012). In respect to the emergence of Turkish enterprises in world business, it is assumed that their international entrepreneurial orientation would be remarkable to investigate. International entrepreneurship, being considered as the subset of international business and entrepreneurship areas, is defined as “the discovery, enactment, evaluation, and exploitation of opportunities – across national borders- to create future goods and services” (Oviatt and McDougall, 2005). The study of international entrepreneurship is gaining momentum since 1990s. Prestigious academic journals such as Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice (1996), Academy of Management Journal (2000), International Business Review (2005), and European 47 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Management Journal (2008) published special issues on the subject. So, it is evident that international entrepreneurship is an establishing and a wellreceived field of interest in management science. While studies on international entrepreneurship seem increasing, there is still a need to develop measures for this construct. Dimitratos et al. (2012) operationalized international entrepreneurship based on entrepreneurial orientation (EO) research. They developed a scale labeled “international entrepreneurial culture” (IEC) that is composed of six dimensions: (i) international market orientation, (ii) international learning orientation, (iii) international innovation propensity, (iv) international risk attitude, (v) international networking orientation, and (vi) international motivation. This study intends to take this IEC scale for measuring international entrepreneurial orientation as the independent variable. The dependent variable of the research is export market performance. Deriving from the valid scales developed by Zou, et al. (1998), Lages and Lages (2004), Diamantopoulos and Kakkos (2007); export market performance will be measured by firms’ sales revenue, increase of sales, profitability, market share, and new product penetration in the export markets. On the other hand, firms’ international business experience, size, and industry would be evaluated as the control variables. Within this framework, the scope of the research is exporting companies in Turkey. By purposive sampling, a total of 660 members of export association boards under Turkish Exporters Assembly would be inquired. Retrieved data will be analyzed with Spearman and Pearson correlations, as well with multiple linear regressions. As a matter of fact, this abstract is submitted to the International Conference on Economic and Social Studies 2013. The research is at early stage and in case of its acceptance to the Conference; it will indeed advance through further discussions by peer scholars in management. Keywords: International Entrepreneurship, Export Performance, Turkey. 48 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1495 Title A name given to the resource International Entrepreneurial Orientation and Performance Outcomes in Export Markets Author Author SOZUER, Aytug ALTUNTAS, Gultekin SEMERCIOZ, Fatih Abstract A summary of the resource. Global economic integration with the diffusion of information and communication technologies forces many business enterprises to internationalize. This evolution brings opportunities and threats to business management, as well opens up new fields for academic research. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of firms’ international entrepreneurial orientation on their export market performances. Based on the literature, which implies entrepreneurial orientation is critical for market success; this research intends to evaluate the phenomenon for Turkish exporter firms. From year 2000 to 2011, Turkey increased its world share in outward foreign direct investment stock by 146% (UNCTAD, 2012). Besides, Turkey’s total merchandise import and export volume is around USD 400 billions, which constituted 1% of world trade in 2011 (World Trade Organization, 2012). In respect to the emergence of Turkish enterprises in world business, it is assumed that their international entrepreneurial orientation would be remarkable to investigate. International entrepreneurship, being considered as the subset of international business and entrepreneurship areas, is defined as “the discovery, enactment, evaluation, and exploitation of opportunities – across national borders- to create future goods and services” (Oviatt and McDougall, 2005). The study of international entrepreneurship is gaining momentum since 1990s. Prestigious academic journals such as Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice (1996), Academy of Management Journal (2000), International Business Review (2005), and European Management Journal (2008) published special issues on the subject. So, it is evident that international entrepreneurship is an establishing and a wellreceived field of interest in management science. While studies on international entrepreneurship seem increasing, there is still a need to develop measures for this construct. Dimitratos et al. (2012) operationalized international entrepreneurship based on entrepreneurial orientation (EO) research. They developed a scale labeled “international entrepreneurial culture” (IEC) that is composed of six dimensions: (i) international market orientation, (ii) international learning orientation, (iii) international innovation propensity, (iv) international risk attitude, (v) international networking orientation, and (vi) international motivation. This study intends to take this IEC scale for measuring international entrepreneurial orientation as the independent variable. The dependent variable of the research is export market performance. Deriving from the valid scales developed by Zou, et al. (1998), Lages and Lages (2004), Diamantopoulos and Kakkos (2007); export market performance will be measured by firms’ sales revenue, increase of sales, profitability, market share, and new product penetration in the export markets. On the other hand, firms’ international business experience, size, and industry would be evaluated as the control variables. Within this framework, the scope of the research is exporting companies in Turkey. By purposive sampling, a total of 660 members of export association boards under Turkish Exporters Assembly would be inquired. Retrieved data will be analyzed with Spearman and Pearson correlations, as well with multiple linear regressions. As a matter of fact, this abstract is submitted to the International Conference on Economic and Social Studies 2013. The research is at early stage and in case of its acceptance to the Conference; it will indeed advance through further discussions by peer scholars in management. Keywords: International Entrepreneurship, Export Performance, Turkey. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/63c77bf32e2ec75fe14c381b407a1bc4.pdf 35ab3269a9ce8cf94cb764d47b88bda8 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Development of Fisheries and Aquaculture in Albania Xhafa Sonila University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania sonilaxhafa@gmail.com Albana Kosovrasti University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania albana.kosovrasti@unitir.edu.al Albania has great natural and infrastructure resources for the development of fisheries and aquaculture sector, commerce and industry of fishery processing products etc. So Albania has a coastline of about 474 km long, an extensive network of hydrograph. It ranks in the first countries in Europe in terms of water resources. The hydrographic basin of Albania has an area of 43 300 km² or 57% more than the territory of the state of our country and 50.000 km rivers and streams, 1,100 km² surface of lake water and sufficient artificial reservoirs. In this article all these resources will be analyzed in detail; it will be also analyzed the identification and further development of these resources, which have special importance in building strategies and policies in the direction of further development of this sector aiming at increasing production, paying attention to the sustainable use of these resources without damage on the biodiversity and the environment. Research in this field is carried out mainly by universities, mostly from the Agricultural University of Tirana. The Ministry of Agriculture in collaboration with Ministry of Environment Forests and Water Administration, has played an important role in constructing strategies for the development of this sector as well as commerce and industry of fishery products processing through projects MEDITS and AdriaMed where an important place has the study of ecological and environmental effects, mainly in the lagoons in cases of fishing beyond manufacturing capacity. Very important are also the infrastructure and human resources, which give weight to the development of this sector. In this country there are 4 ports that develop fishing activities, where the most important is the largest port in the country, the port of Durres. Social effects of the development of this sector are also important in studies, mainly in terms of employment and community consumption per habitants, which is 3.3 kg / 281 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo year of about 15 kg / year consumed by the countries of the Mediterranean region. At the end of this paper we will list some premises development of this sector, recognizing it as an important output sector with great impact in the economic and social life in the country. Keywords: Fishing, Development. Infrastructure, 282 Water Resources, Sustainable � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/282914286f802c27d3cf8f93d3094c63.docx 7fed2f29b9f29a96522e786c9c5b0f06 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/5b244315d243a0a2a8e39b3afd3eb672.pdf 52853dd741005e2ccaea57ed34c991b0 PDF Text Text International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Development of Fisheries and Aquaculture in Albania XhafaSonila University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania sonilaxhafa@gmail.com AlbanaKosovrasti University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania albana.kosovrasti@unitir.edu.al Abstract Albania has greatinfrastructureandnaturalresourcesforthedevelopment of fisheriesandaquaculturesector, commerceandindustry of fisheryprocessingproductsetc. So Albania has a coastline of about 474 km long, an extensive network of hydrography. Itranks in thefirstcountries in Europe in terms of waterresources. Thehydrographicbasin of Albania has an area of 43 300 km² or 57% morethantheterritory of thestate of ourcountryand 50.000 km riversandstreams, 1,100 km² surface of lake waterandsufficientartificialreservoirs. Inthisarticlealltheseresourceswill be analyzed in detail; it will be alsoanalyzedtheidentificationandfurtherdevelopment of theseresources, whichhavespecialimportance in buildingstrategiesandpolicies in thedirection of furtherdevelopment of thissectoraiming at increasingproduction, payingattentiontothesustainableuse of theseresourceswithoutdamage on thebiodiversityandtheenvironment. Research in thisfield is carriedoutmainlybyuniversities, mostlyfromtheAgriculturalUniversity of Tirana. TheMinistry of Agriculture in collaborationwiththeMinistry of Environment ForestsandWater Administration, has played an important role in constructingstrategiesforthedevelopment of thissector as well as commerceandindustry of fisheryproductsprocessingthroughprojects MEDITS andAdriaMedwhere an importantplace has thestudy of ecologicalandenvironmentaleffects, mainly in thelagoons in cases of fishingbeyondmanufacturingcapacity. Veryimportantarealsotheinfrastructureandhumanresources, whichgiveweighttothedevelopment of thissector. Inthiscountrythereare 4 portsthatdevelopfishingactivities, wherethemostimportant is thelargest port in thecountry, the port of Durres. Socialeffects of thedevelopment of thissectorarealsoimportant in studies, mainly in terms of employmentandcommunityconsumptionperhabitants, which is 3.3 kg / year of about 15 kg / yearconsumedbythecountries of theMediterraneanregion. At theend of thispaperwewilllistsomepremisesdevelopment of thissector, recognizing it as an importantoutputsectorwithgreatimpact on theeconomicandsocial life in thecountry. Keywords: Fishing, Infrastructure, WaterResources, Sustainable Development. 1 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Introduction Albania has a coastline of about 474 km long, an extensive network of hydrograph. It ranks in the first countries in Europe in terms of water resources. The hydrographic basin of Albania has an area of 43 300 km² or 57% more than the territory of the state of our country and 50.000 km rivers and streams, 1,100 km² surface of lake water and sufficient artificial reservoirs. Under these conditions, concluded that Albania has sufficient assets to develop fishing and aquaculture in promising levels. In this context, it is necessary to undertake studies in this field in terms of the assessment of these natural resources, methods of rational using and sustainable development of fisheries. Albania has also infrastructure and human resources that enhance the development of this sector. In this country there are 4 ports that develop fishing activities, where the most important is the largest port in the country, the port of Durres. Research in this field is performed mainly by universities, mostly from the Agricultural University of Tirana. The Ministry of Agriculture in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment Forests and Water Administration, has played an important role in managing strategies for the development of this sector as well as commerce and industry of fishery products processing through projects MEDITS and AdriaMed where an important place has the study of ecological and environmental effects, mainly in the lagoons in cases of fishing beyond manufacturing capacity. In this paper, will mostly analyzed issues of sustainable development of this economic activity, emphasising on integrating its management with other sectors of the economy and services. Factors that have influenced in the development of fisheries and aquaculture In recent years, Albania fisheries have become dynamically developing sectors of the food industry, and many private agencies have takenmeasurest by investing in modern fishing fleets and processing factories in response to growing international demand of international trade for fish and fishery products. Actually, the value of fishery and aquaculture from catches, estimated at about 40 million $, which 22 million $ represents fishing at sea, coastal and inland waters, 8 million $ aquaculture and the remaining represents mussels.1 The factors that influence in the development of fisheries and aquaculture in Albania are: Natural Resources Albania possesses important natural resources in service to the development of the fisheries and aquaculture sector, based mainly on the abundant water resources. Inthiscontext, Albania possesses:  470 km of coastline and 12 miles marine territorial waters. Waters of the Adriatic and Ionian Sea exploited extensively for fishing. Here exert their activity the most important ports in the country like Durres, Vlora, Saranda and Shengjin. In the table below are given the indicators of species that grow along the Albanian coast. Table 1: Indicators of species that grow along the Albanian coast 1 “Analizaekonomike e Peshkimit. Raport Final”, Ministry of Environment, ForestryandWater Administration 2 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Species Kg/km2 N/Km2 Helicolenusdactylopterus 0.24 20 Lophiusbudegassa 6.29 11 Lophiuspiscatorius 1.58 Merlucciusmerluccius 16.69 188 Micromesistiuspoutassou 0.82 6 Mullusbarbatus 8.59 266 Mullussurmuletus Pagelluserythrinus 2.34 Phycisblennoides 1.24 92 Rajaclavata 2.28 2 Spicaraflexuosa 11.14 728 Trachurusmediterraneus 8.52 154 Trachurustrachurus 7.76 1535 Trisopterusminutus 303 225 Zeus faber 5.07 8 Aristaeomorphafoliacea 1.78 72 Parapenaeuslongirostris 10.76 1348 Eledonecirrhosa 7.39 50 Eledonemoschata 4.73 26 Illexcoindetii 2.46 Loligovulgaris 3.55 622 Octopusvulgaris 1.86 Source: Estimates of the General Directorate of Fisheries  50.000 km rivers and streams. Albania's hydrographic network consists of 11 main rivers with average flow about 1,245 m3/sec.  1,100 km² surface of lake water. According to lake country fund counted 247 natural lakes of various types and sizes, with a volume of approximately 60 billion m3 and 5 main artificial lakes. The largest and the most important natural lakes in the country are: Shkodra Lake, Ohrid Lake and Prespa Lake. In the table below are given some indicators of the most important natural lakes in the country. Shkodra lake is the largest lake in the Balkan. Table 2: Some indicators of the most natural lakes in the country Lakes Area(ha) Shkodra Lake Ohrid Lake 36000 Area within state borders (ha) 12000 32000 9500 PrespaMadhe PrespaVogël 12000 9000 4900 400 Location Species North part of Albania south-eastern part of Albania carp, karasin, mullet, bleak, eel, lucioperca lake trout, salmothymus ohridanus, carp, skobus, bleak, rutilus rubilo. south-eastern part of Albania bleak, trout, karasin and carp Source: Author In Ohrid and Prespa Lake produced mostly Trout and Koran. According to the data obtained in the Korca Inspectorate of Fisheries, their contribution to the total production varies 75-80%. For this production are raised several facilities in Lin, Tushemisht, Zagorcan and Zvesda. 3 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo  Important lagoon surface lagoon about 10,000 ha with a fish yield ranging from 4297 kg / ha.Coastal lagoons as intermediate salty ecosystems between land and marine waters are aquatic environments with high productivity and biodiversity which realize the enrichment with fish and clams of the coastal zone. Narta lagoon classified as lagoons with the highest fish production, while for the production of different mollusks distinguishes lagoon of Butrinti. Table 3: Lagoons in Albania, location and fish production Lagoons Area(ha) Narte Karavasta Butrint Orikum Patok 2800 3900 1600 150 250 Kune Vain 250 Vilunit 250 Location NorthWestern of district of Vlora West of Albania, near toLushnja town Southwestern Albania South western of district of Vlora Along the Adriatic Sea in the west of the city of Lezha. On the northern Albanian Coast, near Lezha region. North-west of the port of Shengjin Fish production (Tons per year) 130-140 50-60 96 8-10 30 45 16 Source: Ministry of Environment Forestry and Water Administration  Sufficient artificial reservoirs, 700 with a total area of 12,000 ha. A considerable part of them, mainly in rural areas, used for the cultivation of carp. Table 4: Lakes in Albania, location and fish production Lakes Location Fierza Area (ha) 5000 Shkopeti 80 Ulza 150 On the Mat River On the Mat River Vau Dejes i 247 On theDriniRiver Species Pike perch Stizostedion lucioperca and perch Perca fluviatilis. Ciprinid, carp, salmon, kerosene, eel. Hypophthalmichthys molitrix, albranus albranus alborella, ciprinus carpio, carassius Alborellaalborella, CyprinusCarpio, Carassiuscarassius, Alosafalaxnilotica, Percafluviatilis, Hyphthalmichthesmolitrix. Rosette Fish Production (Tons per year) 50 4 30 30 Source: Ministry of Environment Forestry and Water Administration Early traditions of development of this sector. Fishing and aquaculture are developed very early, through traditional methods mainly in Shkodra, Ohrid and Prespa lakes and in coastal lagoons like Narta, Butrint, etc. The old format and fishing craft were developed mainly in the coastal area, in the area of catkins up to 2-3 miles away from the Adriatic coast and 1 mile from the Ionian Sea.Traditional fishing is inherited from generation to generation. Fishermen in this category have better recognition not only in the preparation of nets, boats and fishing boat for fishing areas but also in the techniques of using fishing vessels . Favorable geostrategic position and proximity to regional markets. Albania possesses a favorable geographical and strategic position. The diversity of hydrological resources and 4 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo typical Mediterranean climate conditions favored the development of the fisheries sector. A special importance is the country's transit position and close distances to markets in the Balkan region and beyond. Albania is bordered by Montenegro to the northwest, Kosovo to the north, the Republic of Macedonia to the east and Greece to the south. Many foreign researchers have evaluated Albania a country "gateway" or "gateway-tie" as an important transit center linking the East with the West. Map 1: Natural Resources, Fishery and Aquaculture Activities Source: SonilaXhafa, ArcMap/GIS 10 The development of tourism as a safe market for this sector. Domestic and foreign tourists represent an important consumer for the market and the 5 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo fishing industry. According to the Ministry of Tourism, in 2011 Albania was visited by 4 million visitors. Numerous recreational marine lakes and lagoons, enhance the alternatives to the development of recreational fishing as a sustainable form of this sector to support the further development of tourism. The concept of recreational fishing entails all types of fishing activities including sport fishing activities undertaken by any individual, with or without a boat, for leisure purposes, and does not involve the selling of fish or other aquatic organisms. As far as could be determined, six countries in the area, namely Albania, Croatia, Greece, Slovenia, Spain and the Syrian Arab Republic, have established a licensing system for individual recreational fishers. Strengthening the legal framework and timely involvement of Albania in important regional and international conventions. Albanian legislation in the field of fisheries is based on the principles of exploitation of fish resources in a sustainable way and precedes the development of the fishing sector. The general principles of this legislation are based on the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries of FAO, and also it defines relations between Albania and other countries for fisheries and aquaculture through the obligations of each country, to ensure compliance with the rules that apply to fishing. Instruments and agreements relating to the management of fishing in Albania are listed below. The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (ratified in June 2003) 1995 Code of FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fishing (implemented as a voluntary code 1997) Implementation of the 1993 FAO Agreement (received in May 2005) General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM) (ratified in July 2003) International Commission for the conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) (observation status) 1957 European Fisheries Advisory Commission of the Internal Waters (EIFAC) Law 9055 dated 24.4.2003 "On the accession of the Republic of Albania to the" Convention on the Law of the Sea, Organization of United Nations Law No. 9401 dated 19.05.2005 "On the accession of the Republic of Albania" Agreement to promote compliance with international measures of management and conservation of resources by fishing vessels on the open seas In summary Albania through these potentials, has all the possibilities to increase productivity in the domestic and foreign market, to increase exports to the EU and regional markets competing with high quality. The development of coastal and lake fishing The development of fishing and increasing production and consumption of fish goes in parallel with the development of the fishing fleet. The fishing fleet is based on 4 bays (Durres, Shengjin, Vlora and Saranda). In 1946 was built the first professional fishing ship near the port of Durres.The fishing fleet was gradually improved in quality as well as a number, where in 1960 the number of fishing vessels with different power and capacity reached 30. The sardine fleet consisted of 60 vessels fishing out of which 28 in Vlora, 12 in Durres, 12 in Shengjin and 8 in Saranda. For their processing were established the first factories for the production of canned in 1970. With the liberalization of the economy, in 1993 fishing fleet was privatized and at the same time Albania imported about 150 fishing boats, mainly in Italy but also from Greece. Graphic 1: Fishery Production in Albania (1992-2000) 6 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo 1200 1000 Pelalgjik 800 Coastal and lagoons 600 Lakes 400 Aquaculture 200 Bivalvore 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Source: AdriaMedthe General Directory for Fishery During the first decade of transition production in fisheries has increased at lower rates and this is due to:  Amortization of the existing fish fleet as a result of old age. Most of the fishing vessels have an age range from 25 years to 40 years, but there are also ships over 60 years. Repair of fishing vessels conducted partly in Durres, in military ports and mostly in neighboring ports.  Losing a part of the fleet during the mass emigration in 1991, but also in 1997. The ships that were used to send the emigrants in Italy were the type of trawl fishing, the bigger and more able to afford over the Adriatic  Lack of port and ancillary infrastructure  Fall of the workforce in this sector as a result of mass immigration. During the second decade observed fluctuations in the quantity of Fish caught as in marine and lagoon waters. This refers to fluctuations in the production of these ecosystems. During this period, do not always respect the norms of sustainable use of these ecosystems. Furthermore the fishing fleet is growing at the slowest and its maintenance and repair has been restricted. Graphic 2: Fish caught in tonne 2500 2000 Costal line Costal lagoons 1500 Inland waters 1000 Aquaculture Mitylus galloprovicialis 500 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: Ministry of Environment By 2007 the fishing fleet has grown at lower rates. In this period investments were mostly oriented in infrastructure improvements to the existing fleet. 7 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Table 5:Fleet by type of fishing Type of Fishing Total Selective Pelagic Purse seiners 2001 198 62 11 125 2003 213 63 11 139 2005 247 63 15 169 2007 269 68 21 180 Source: Ministry of Environment Forestry and Water Administration According to the data obtained from the General Directorate of Fisheries, Albanian fleet currently consists of 146 registered boats with engine power from 23.75 HP. The average engine power of the fishing fleet is around 321 HP. About 71% of vessels have 120kf engine power. Table 6: Technical indicators of quality of fleet in Albania Ports Ships Engine power (kw) Durres 51 10.168 28 2.371 36 6.582 31 4.631 146 23.752 Sarande Shengjin Vlore TOTAL Daysatsea Workforce Production Value of Average in town Catches of Consume 207 1623 479 232 8.051 74 474 110 55 4.110 144 1126 327 158 5.668 125 1047 223 101 4.612 22.441 550 1.140 546 4.270 Source: FD - MoAF; IREPA Shengjini and Durres ports have greater fishing fleet average engine power compared with other ports (average 300 HP). Mostly fishing fleet is concentrated in the Port of Durres, which constitutes 35% of the total. By calculating an import of fresh fish and 3185 tons of canned, fresh fish export of 550 tons and a local production of 7376 tonnes per capita consumption appears that, for a population of 3 million people, is approximately 3:33 kg / spirit. On the other hand, fish consumption in the country is low compared with the average Mediterranean countries is estimated at 15.1 kg / capita (countries not members of the EU, 8.1 kg / capita and the Mediterranean EU members 30.7 kg / capita). According to a geographical analysis results that fish production is concentrated mostly in the port of Durres with marine production around 1623 tons. This production represents 38% of the total production in the country.The largest concentration of production in the Port of Durres related to technical indicators of quality of fleet and with the greatest potential of the work force. An important issue is the planning of Durres fishing port, in the western part of the commercial port, about 1.8 hectares and with a fleet of 130 fishing ships that anchor in three Pontine. Photo 1: Durres Fishing Port. Source: Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Water Administration 8 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Development of aquaculture and fishing processing industry First Aquaculture developments recognized in the late 60s, mainly concentrated on the cultivation of mussels (M. galloprovincialis) and shrimp (Peneaus japonicas). Albania has only one activity of cultivation of Peneaus japonica shrimp in an area about 215 ha in Kavaja town, built years ago and reactivated as activity through an Italian partnership. Other cultivated species of this activity are: cold water salmonid, Oncorhynchus mykiss, shellfish (especially M. Galloprovincialis), shrimps, and S. Aurata Koce D. Labrax bass etc. Political and economic changes after 1991 brought changes in these activities. All enterprises and fish farms as for carp and trout cultivation was privatized. Currently this activity produced about 8,000 quintals of mussels from 47 subjects, 3,000 quintals of keys and bass from 11 subjects and 50 quintals of shrimp from one enterprise. Processing industry has its origins in 1958 to CanningVlora Combine. Its activity in this period mainly relates to the conservation of sardines, but also the smoked eels, tuna, acreages, shapes and octopus. Till the 1990 this activity was expanded with processing factories in Durres and Lezha. During the transition the private and domestic investment, increased the number of processing entities, mostly in coastal regions. For the development of this activity highlights Lezha Region with 4 fishing processing factories. The development of this industry has positively influenced in employment opportunities for rural communities and improving the quality of life in these areas. Most local products are used for export. The great advantage in this issue is the status of Albania as a "third world country" on "setting in the European market of fishery products". It allows fishing industry to export to neighboring countries such as Greece and Italy. In this condition Albania is in a very favorable position compared to many other neighboring countries. 9 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Actually there are 37 activities approved for export to the EU that perform processing and marketing of fish products.All these activities are private enterprises. About a third of fish caught in the sea that includes size and better quality species such as sea bass and wrasse, shrimp and octopus exported contributing to the economic value of the sector. Sustainable development of fisheries and aquaculture sector After 1991, in terms of the development of an economy in transition, the fishing control process was low.Overexploitation of important fish stocks, modifications of ecosystems, significant economic losses, and international conflicts on management and fish trade still threaten the long-term sustainability of fisheries and the contribution of fisheries to food supply. This situation led to changes in the structure population by overexploitation of productive ecosystems primarily in the family of trout, acorn, mullets, eels, etc..During the second decade of transition, generally exploitation of water resources and fisheries in Albania has been rational and responsible, with the exception of some sporadic cases where fishing takes place outside the rules and general control, mainly in rural areas. However, the transition has generally convey difficulties in economic and legal organizing, dictating a number of risks that affect the sustainable development of fisheries and aquaculture sector. A. Ecological sustainability risks in marine, river and lagoon environments  Many fisheries resources could not sustain an often uncontrolled increase of exploitation. This situation is mainly caused fluctuations in the production of lakes species such as carp, skobuz, gudgeon, which are very desirable for consumption and export. Bleak until 1990 constituted 70-75% of the total fish production, while currently its use for processing, and sale and consumption remains limited, even for research purposes2.  Urban pollution in general, mainly reflected in the waters near the coast have influenced the decrease of production of species. Fluctuations of the trout production have been mainly that of Ohrid, because of the urban and tourist pollution, and because of the phosphorus spill in the lake water. In a year in the lake discharged about 150 tons of phosphorus3.  Developments and irregular forms of fishing are another factor that threatens production in marine, lakes and lagoon waters. Application of abusive forms of traditional fishing as the use of explosives, poisonous etc. threaten production in these ecosystems. Fluctuations in production has lagoons, mainly in the Karavasta and Narta Lagoon, dictated by the irregular fishing forms in time, space, quantity and diversity. An issue that should be noted is the weakening of the role of the embouchure in maintaining a selective fishing, updating resources, recycling of small fish (recruits) etc.  The lack of specific and integrated development plans of marine, lake and lagoon ecosystems with regional economic development and wider, in general weakens the sustainable use of water resources and sustainable development of these ecosystems. B. Infrastructure risks 2 3 Minstry of Environment Forestry and Water Administration NationalGeographic:"Fossil Trout" FacesExtinction in Balkans 10 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo  Fisheries and aquaculture sector but also fisheries processing industry have been developed for years in continual difficulties related to basic and support infrastructure for the production and marketing of fishery products. Old age of vessels is an important indicator in this regard, which should be evaluated in terms of necessity investments for their repair and maintenance. On the other hand, their depreciation increases the cost of fuel and consequently the cost of fishery products in the market by reducing profit. According to data in the General Directorate of Fisheries fuel cost takes a weight about 68% of the average cost, while the cost of the equipment 9.7%, maintenance5.5%, lubricants 2.9%. Based in an economic analysis of the General Directorate for fisheries results that the annual profit coefficient is limited and reaches 3-12% of turnover (2200 to 11460 USD per year per vessel). Another problem is the lack of security and repair centers of ships. Most of them repaired in neighboring ports that increases again the cost of production but also creates difficulties and delays in the marketing of products. A problem to be assessed is the misery of mussel cultivation plants in Lake Butrint, where currently only 20-50% of their capacity utilized C. Institutionaland legal risks  Weakness in the implementation of the development strategies of the sector as well as management plans;  Weaknesses in controls and supervision and enforcement of legal norms regarding the sustainable use of marine, lake and lagoon ecosystems. Suggestions The excess capacity of fishing fleets has been widely recognized as a major reason for overfishing and the degradation of marine fisheries resources throughout the world. In the service of sustainable development of fisheries and aquaculture sector, it is important that through legal instruments, research and operational stock of local and regional authorities be undertaken in the framework of measures: A. Sustainableuse of productiveecosystems  Development of fisheries in depth and shallow waters through alternative forms of fishing in coastal and lagoon waters that are in the protection of biodiversity and fish stocks.  Regulation of fishing gears and methods is a common feature of fisheries legislation in Mediterranean coastal states. This measure is designed to prevent fishers from using particularly destructive gears or methods. One of the most common approaches is for states to establish a list of prohibited gears and methods; explosives, chemical, poisonous substances or electrical devices for fishing purposes are universally prohibited.  Legal assessment on a periodic basis for the determination of fishing days and fishing seasons based on production balance and replication fish species.Some Mediterranean coastal states have taken measures designed to limit the time of operation by duly authorized fishing vessels through the implementation of days-at-sea program. Closed season and temporary suspension of fishing operations are measures designed to ease pressure on fish stocks by stopping fishing operations for a specified period of time. Closed season is intended to allow species reproduction and thus coincides with the breeding time of major commercial species. A temporary suspension of fishing operations is a circumstantial measure that is generally taken in response to an 11 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo   emergency situation, or for the purpose of allowing fishery resource recovery. In service of this goal it is necessary to review and evaluated periodically the number of fishing licenses in the sea and the lagoon, but also in lakes. In this context it is necessary to control the level of fishing effort so as to adjust it to the availability of the fishery resource and to evaluate the fishing capacity of the national fleet to determine whether it should be reduced or could be increased under certain conditions. Development of fishing in order to protect the lagoon ecosystem, through the creation of lagoon areas where fishing is prohibited or restricted, recreating the links between the lagoon and sea water, minimum landing sizes for species of fish and other aquatic organisms are often set to prevent the capture of juvenile fish or non-fish species and allow sufficient time for fish and the other species to mature and thus reproduce. Such measures are necessary in Karavasta and Narta lagoon. Minimize the impact of urban tourism and industrial pollution in marine river, lake and lagoon ecosystems for protection of biotopes and species of special interest. B. Infrastructure improvements in the fisheries sector.      Diversification, restructuring and modernization of the fishing fleet, Expansion of existing ports, primarily that of Durres, maintenance and improvement of fishery space infrastructure since the Durres holds first place among other ports for the quantity of fish and shale production. Establishment facilities for repairing and maintenance of fishing boats in the four ports, in order to increase the readiness of technical indicators and operating in the fishing fleet. Systematic monitoring of the fleet to avoid delays in the production and sale process Establishment of a survey and orientation unit through GIS able to pursue fishing activity in the ports sector and provide the necessary data to support policies of rational use of marine resources. C. Legal andinstitutionalimproving     Establishing fishing zones by legal and institutional instruments as management tool that allows to transfer to the local authorities the right of determining segments of fishing operations spatially by authorizing only certain types of fishing activities by specifying categories of vessels in each fishing zone. Special protection by legal instruments through the establishment of lists of protected species of fish and other marine organisms that regarded as threatened. Legal and organizational approximation of the Common Fisheries Policy of the European Union set by taking into account market factors and perspectives of future development Increasing the implementation of local and regional plans for the fishery. References FAO, Recreational Fisheries, Rome, 2012 Ina Dimireva,The Mediterranean Fisheries Regulation – Briefing, EUbusiness, 2010. 12 �International Conference on EconomicandSocialStudies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo IUCN, Overview of the conservation status of the marine fishes of the Mediterranean sea, 2011. Ministria e Mjedisit, PyjevedheAdministrimit PeshkimitdheAkuakultures, 2007-2015. te ujrave, Strategjia e Scientific Cooperation To Support Responsible Fisheries In The Adriatic Sea, an Adriamed social survey of Albanian marine fisheries some notes and preliminary information, GFCM-SAC Subcommittee on Economic and Social Sciences. Malaga, 6th-7th May 2004. UNEP/MAP Regional Activity Centre,Analysis of economic activities in Mediterranean: Fishery and aquaculture sectors, December 2011. 13 the � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1683 Title A name given to the resource Development of Fisheries and Aquaculture in Albania Author Author SONILA, Xhafa KOSOVRASTI, Albana Abstract A summary of the resource. Albania has great natural and infrastructure resources for the development of fisheries and aquaculture sector, commerce and industry of fishery processing products etc. So Albania has a coastline of about 474 km long, an extensive network of hydrograph. It ranks in the first countries in Europe in terms of water resources. The hydrographic basin of Albania has an area of 43 300 km² or 57% more than the territory of the state of our country and 50.000 km rivers and streams, 1,100 km² surface of lake water and sufficient artificial reservoirs. In this article all these resources will be analyzed in detail; it will be also analyzed the identification and further development of these resources, which have special importance in building strategies and policies in the direction of further development of this sector aiming at increasing production, paying attention to the sustainable use of these resources without damage on the biodiversity and the environment. Research in this field is carried out mainly by universities, mostly from the Agricultural University of Tirana. The Ministry of Agriculture in collaboration with Ministry of Environment Forests and Water Administration, has played an important role in constructing strategies for the development of this sector as well as commerce and industry of fishery products processing through projects MEDITS and AdriaMed where an important place has the study of ecological and environmental effects, mainly in the lagoons in cases of fishing beyond manufacturing capacity. Very important are also the infrastructure and human resources, which give weight to the development of this sector. In this country there are 4 ports that develop fishing activities, where the most important is the largest port in the country, the port of Durres. Social effects of the development of this sector are also important in studies, mainly in terms of employment and community consumption per habitants, which is 3.3 kg / year of about 15 kg / year consumed by the countries of the Mediterranean region. At the end of this paper we will list some premises development of this sector, recognizing it as an important output sector with great impact in the economic and social life in the country. Keywords: Fishing, Infrastructure, Water Resources, Sustainable Development. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b5beedd6a1512fbbf5985fc7144b93a9.pdf 7430777c73f0600398b94343d076c73d PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Absolute Poverty and Regional Disparities in Albania Xhafa Sonila University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania sonilaxhafa@gmail.com Sokol Axhemi University of Tirana, Tirana, Albania sokol.axhemi@unitir.edu.al Albania lies in the southwestern part of the Balkan Peninsula. After 50 years of dictatorial government of communist system, in the early 1991 it suffered radical changes of political character which brought at the same time substantial changes in economic and social development of our country. Poverty and social exclusion as one of the important indicators of economic development level of a region, become some interesting topics of study, in purpose to provide alternative development and adapt strategies in purpose to build specific policies towards mitigating this social phenomenon that lies and developed in severe forms in some regions in Albania. Through analysis of various indicators reflected in the graphical displays and maps, in this paper we will study poverty in Albania, in its social and economic context. According to the World Bank, definition of poverty is lack of income and unemployment, hunger and malnutrition, ignorance and illiteracy, inability to be sheltered, inability to access to public and social services. In this point of view, poverty means exclusion, which will be studied through indicators that values the opportunities that have the community to acquire essential social and public services. In addition, the study of social exclusion as a result of regional disparities is especially important in the construction of local development plans in the service of sustainable development for the entire region. In this study poverty will be treated and will be examined on the basis of all its indicators (economic and social) as well as in its relative and subjective context. At the end of this study will be given a summary of recommendations in the function of mitigating this phenomenon with social impact, in service to promote sustainable development in the country after a long period of transition with fragile economic and social developments. Keywords: Poverty, Political Transition, Unemployment, Social Exclusion, Disparity Development, Malnutrition, Illiteracy Etc. 283 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1680 Title A name given to the resource Absolute Poverty and Regional Disparities in Albania Author Author SONILA, Xhafa AXHEMI, Sokol Abstract A summary of the resource. Albania lies in the southwestern part of the Balkan Peninsula. After 50 years of dictatorial government of communist system, in the early 1991 it suffered radical changes of political character which brought at the same time substantial changes in economic and social development of our country. Poverty and social exclusion as one of the important indicators of economic development level of a region, become some interesting topics of study, in purpose to provide alternative development and adapt strategies in purpose to build specific policies towards mitigating this social phenomenon that lies and developed in severe forms in some regions in Albania. Through analysis of various indicators reflected in the graphical displays and maps, in this paper we will study poverty in Albania, in its social and economic context. According to the World Bank, definition of poverty is lack of income and unemployment, hunger and malnutrition, ignorance and illiteracy, inability to be sheltered, inability to access to public and social services. In this point of view, poverty means exclusion, which will be studied through indicators that values the opportunities that have the community to acquire essential social and public services. In addition, the study of social exclusion as a result of regional disparities is especially important in the construction of local development plans in the service of sustainable development for the entire region. In this study poverty will be treated and will be examined on the basis of all its indicators (economic and social) as well as in its relative and subjective context. At the end of this study will be given a summary of recommendations in the function of mitigating this phenomenon with social impact, in service to promote sustainable development in the country after a long period of transition with fragile economic and social developments. Keywords: Poverty, Political Transition, Unemployment, Social Exclusion, Disparity Development, Malnutrition, Illiteracy Etc. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/0cbb60ad0f11e88653483ec1f7c7826f.pdf 63d2ff55d24d803fba35fc564c8b8f6c PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo A Comparison of Decision Making Models and Electricity Energy Demand Forecasting for Turkey Bilal Şişman Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey bsisman@aku.edu.tr Mahmut Nevfel Elgün Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey mahmutelgun@aku.edu.tr Energy is vital for industrialization and development countries like Turkey. Energy, particularly electricity, is essential for improving quality of live and developing as social and economic like European Countries. Projections for Turkey demonstrate positive results from the use of energy, especially for electricity, and identify key areas for improvement by 2023 (ESMAP Report, 2011). Turkey is rapidly growing with a 73 million young and confident people. So, energy requirements have been rising with increasing population for twenty years in Turkey. The development a country and people living of standards is directly related to the energy utilization rate. Authors and researchers claimed that, the Turkish economy is currently the fastest growing economies among the European Union. In addition, there are a lot of and different studies that were published recently on forecasting of Turkey’s electricity demand. But the aim of this study is to compare forecasting models each other with error estimations and estimate future demand. This study is a proposition of a new approach by comparing grey prediction and multiple regression models with Model of Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED). Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources carry out MAED. In this study, electricity energy consumption in Turkey is forecasting with grey prediction and multiple regression models from 1970 to 2010. In this model, we used total export, total import, population and GDP data unlike than Akay and Atak (2007). This study also explores new approach by using more data and suggestions regarding to electricity consumption. As a result, proposed approaches estimates have more accurate results than MAED model in the comparison of electricity consumption. Keywords: Turkey’s Electricity Consumption Forecasting; Grey Prediction; Multiple Regressions. 58 � https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/fb63c91bdfb805e1f620f202c4ac9fc3.docx 432d696aeac1f50674ed4b6f939c5e12 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b92322d7120012677b07bb9d12efa4fe.pdf 052a63aaf476fa5d5f64012746e348cc Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1490 Title A name given to the resource A Comparison of Decision Making Models and Electricity Energy Demand Forecasting for Turkey Author Author SISMAN, Bilal NEVFEL ELGUN, Mahmut Abstract A summary of the resource. Energy is vital for industrialization and development countries like Turkey. Energy, particularly electricity, is essential for improving quality of live and developing as social and economic like European Countries. Projections for Turkey demonstrate positive results from the use of energy, especially for electricity, and identify key areas for improvement by 2023 (ESMAP Report, 2011). Turkey is rapidly growing with a 73 million young and confident people. So, energy requirements have been rising with increasing population for twenty years in Turkey. The development a country and people living of standards is directly related to the energy utilization rate. Authors and researchers claimed that, the Turkish economy is currently the fastest growing economies among the European Union. In addition, there are a lot of and different studies that were published recently on forecasting of Turkey’s electricity demand. But the aim of this study is to compare forecasting models each other with error estimations and estimate future demand. This study is a proposition of a new approach by comparing grey prediction and multiple regression models with Model of Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED). Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources carry out MAED. In this study, electricity energy consumption in Turkey is forecasting with grey prediction and multiple regression models from 1970 to 2010. In this model, we used total export, total import, population and GDP data unlike than Akay and Atak (2007). This study also explores new approach by using more data and suggestions regarding to electricity consumption. As a result, proposed approaches estimates have more accurate results than MAED model in the comparison of electricity consumption. Keywords: Turkey’s Electricity Consumption Forecasting; Grey Prediction; Multiple Regressions. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3