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                <text>In the presence of modern marketing &amp; information systems, it becomes almost a necessity to have a cohesive online environment for transferring and getting information about a certain topic. Almost all people use the internet (specifically the world wide web) to gain access to information relative to their needs. Of course, the big topics such as education, medicine, politics and e-commerce make up a large amount of online information systems, serving as an alternative to old-fashioned paper-based education methods (books, prints, scripts…), medicine documentation (health-records, doctor analysis, medical tests…), legal documents (warranties, document prints…) and so on and so forth. The old methods of physical data storage and access have been replaced by modern online systems, allowing people not only to gain access remotely but to reduce the total amount of space used up by the information (from rooms filled with documents to rooms filled with terabytes of storage). This information system concept, referred to as IT system, is one of the key-points in making the below described application.&#13;
Another key-point to the development of this app relates to the importance of marketing and social events on the effect of tourism. Many big cities today live off of the money created from tourism. Whether we like it or not, foreign people like to spend time in our cities and are more inclined to spend their money on as many events and traditions as they possibly can in the short amount of time they have. Sarajevo is no exception, as it has long stood as the “Jerusalem of Europe”, bringing in tourists from all over the world. Hence, It would be important to inform the tourists of the main attractions and places to spend their valuable time at.&#13;
&#13;
&#13;
Those two key-points make up the bulk of the idea behind this application: Create an online information system for tourists and locals to discover new events and places to spend their time at. Not only would it serve as a convenient tool to have at everyday disposal, but it would also allow for marketing and discovering lesser known events and places all in one place, along with many other useful features, ensuring everyone stays up to date with the current situation in Sarajevo.&#13;
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                    <text>LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND
ACTIVE POWER DEMAND – BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA CASE
STUDY
Samir Avdaković
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
s.avdakovic@elektroprivreda.ba
Elvisa Bećirović
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
e.becirovic@elektroprivreda.ba
Nedzad Hasanspahić
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
n.hasanspahic@elektroprivreda.ba
Mustafa Musić
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Ajla Merzić
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Almir Tuhčić
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
a.tuhcic@elektroprivreda.ba
Jasmina Karadža
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
j.karadza@elektroprivreda.ba
Damir Pešut
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
dpesut@eihp.hr
Alenka Kinderman Lončarević
Electric power company, Elektroprivreda, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
akinderman@eihp.hr
Keywords: Forecasting; MAED; Energy; Electricity; Active Power.
ABSTRACT
Accurate forecast of electricity consumption is important for every electric power company
because it determines the dynamics and characteristics of future construction of power facilities.
Speaking in the long term, if the forecasts were too low or high, it could cause a number of
adverse events leading electricity companies in the generation deficit or complex financial
problems due to excessive investment in generating facilities that are not fully utilized. This

�paper presents the results of the forecast energy demand, electricity and active power of Bosnia
and Herzegovina (B&amp;H) system, using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED)
methodology. Modelling of base year is done on the basis of available statistical data and trends
in individual sectors upon trends in other European countries. Results were compared with
forecasts that were prepared by other methods in other time periods.

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                <text>LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND ACTIVE POWER DEMAND – BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA CASE STUDY</text>
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                <text>AVDAKOVIC, Samir
BECIROVIC, Elvisa
HASANSPAHIC, Nedzad
MUSIC, Mustafa
MERZIC, Ajla
TUHCIC, Almir
KARADZA, Jasmina
PESUT, Damir
KINDERMAN LONCAREVIC, Alenka</text>
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                <text>Keywords: Forecasting; MAED; Energy; Electricity; Active Power.  ABSTRACT  Accurate forecast of electricity consumption is important for every electric power company because it determines the dynamics and characteristics of future construction of power facilities. Speaking in the long term, if the forecasts were too low or high, it could cause a number of adverse events leading electricity companies in the generation deficit or complex financial problems due to excessive investment in generating facilities that are not fully utilized. This paper presents the results of the forecast energy demand, electricity and active power of Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&amp;H) system, using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) methodology. Modelling of base year is done on the basis of available statistical data and trends in individual sectors upon trends in other European countries. Results were compared with forecasts that were prepared by other methods in other time periods.</text>
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                    <text>LOVE AND HATRED IN TWO LANGUAGES: CROSS-CULTURAL ANALYSIS

Ivana Grabar &amp; Ekaterina Kostina &amp; Marijana Kolednjak
University North, Croatia &amp; Novosibirsk State Pedagogical University, Russia

Article History:
Submitted: 11.06.2015
Accepted: 27.06.2015

Abstract:
Living in a world that has become a 'global village' makes different nations seem very similar we dress in a very similar way, we listen to the similar music, we sometimes even use the same
words. But how similar are we when it comes to understanding another person’s culture and
values related to some of the general notions, such as love and hatred? The authors of this paper
come from two countries that speak Slavic languages and are in many ways similar: Russia and
Croatia. This similarity initiated a cross-cultural research described further in the paper. The
authors have compared the meanings of two opposite notions (a value and an anti-value) - love
and hatred - with regard to the meaning and importance they have in these two countries and how
they are used in their respective languages. The definitions of the value love were collected from
various available dictionaries in different areas and then analyzed as semantic components. Then
the same procedure was conducted with the anti-value hatred. Since these semantic components
are used in sentences/phrases in Russian and Croatian in various ways, their comparison has been
made. Furthermore, students of two universities (one Russian and one Croatian) filled in a
questionnaire regarding the meaning these notions have for them. The purpose of the
questionnaire was to help the authors find out whether there are similarities/differences in how
these two notions are perceived in their respective countries and languages and whether their
meanings and importance for the culture differ. The obtained results will offer some insight into
the Russian and Croatian languages when compared on the linguistic and cultural level with
regard to a value and an anti-value.
Key words: (anti)values, (cross-) culture, language, love and hatred, semantic components.

�1. Introduction
As one of the consequences of globalization, people tend to be similar – there are no big
differences between people throughout the world with regard to what theywear, what kind of
music they listen to, what topics they talk about. But how similar are we when it comes to
understanding another person’s culture and values related to some of the general notions, such as
love and hatred?
In philosophy, culture is seen as something that members of a social group share (Prinz, 2011).
Since groups and therefore cultures differ, culture strives to the universality of human
development, which makes it designed for and subject to changes and transformations. Being
aware of differences among various cultures helps us understand how people behave and for what
reason. In order to understand the nature of a culture, we need to contrast it with other cultures;
therefore, the dialogue of cultures is needed. This cross-cultural interaction enables us to
understand people that belong to a culture different from our own. By understanding the culture,
we are able to communicate more effectively.
Even though the similarities among cultures are usually obvious, we sometimes have problems
when communicating since those differentiating characteristics become obvious only when
unexpected problems in communication appear. Cultural diversity can be overlooked: according
to Lewis (2006), romantic love is seen differently in France and Finland, and the English notion
of revenge bears little similarity to the Sicilian. In cultural studies, cultural communication is
seen as the way of cultural synthesis, i.e. creative acquisition of everything valuable presented in
one’s own culture and in others (Y.V. Bromley, 1974; S. I. Ryzhakova S. A. Arutyunov, 2004).
Since communication is the core of language learning, integrating culture in language education
has been a never-ending topic of discussion among language teachers, especially when it is
perceived as the consequence of globalization and therefore the necessity of understanding other
cultures (Lange &amp; Paige, 2003).
It is of crucial importance in today’s pluralistic world to overcome ethnocentrism. In order to do
this, inter-disciplinary and cross-disciplinary integration is required for understanding reality.
One of the key concepts of philosophy today is the term cross-culturalness. D.B. Zilberman
(1996) and M.T. Stepanyants(1996) define it as a dialogue or pluralism of cultures. From the

�philosophical point of view, cross-culturalness contributes to a more precise understanding of the
cultural identity of a specific human society. The task that modern philosophy has is to reach the
level of the planetary community. When doing this, cross-cultural and universal values need to be
taken into consideration.
While trying to understand universal values, one should bear in mind a variety of unique cultures
of the peoples inhabiting our planet. The significance of human values should be realized by
people living in different cultures. This enables those wholive in a multinational, multicultural
society interact by being guided by the cross-cultural pluralist prerequisites. Therefore, people
should learn to understand foreign values and to transfer this knowledge and this valuable
experience of dealing with other cultures from generation to generation. This interaction between
cultures then serves as the basis for understanding the world. Within the framework of
intercultural dialogue a person faces many problems connected with the adequate transfer of
sense when dealing with people representing different cultures and possessing different universal
values.
Universal values represent a set of essential values that bind the individual to society and
contribute to the unity of man and the world. They have been created alongside the development
of the human civilization.However, for the moment there is no unambiguous wording of the
concept "universal values".In philosophical studies they distinguish cultural values (freedom,
creativity, love, communication, activity), moral values (the point of life and happiness,
goodness, duty, responsibility, conscience, honor, dignity), aesthetic values (the beautiful, the
sublime), religious values (faith), scientific (the truth), political values (peace, justice,
democracy), legal values (law and order). In the modern era of global change the values of
kindness and tolerance have become particularly important. Value orientations of a personality
explain many of today's events in the world.
Therefore, in order to establish a successful dialogue between cultures, the authors of this paper
believe that comparative cross-cultural studies of the values of different nations are needed. With
this in mind, it was intriguing to find out whether there is any difference (or similarity) between
two nationalities, Russian and Croatian, regarding the attitude towards two notions: a value love
and its anti-value hatred. Since these two represent a cultural value and its anti-value which are
probably the most universal of all, the authors expected there would not be many differences in

�the attitude towards love and hatred between these two nations. However, they were intrigued to
see whether the definitions of these two notions have a different importance when cross-cultural
comparison is made. In addition, they wanted to investigate whether these notions are perceived
in the same way between students studying programs in different scientific fields. The
background for this interest comes from the years of experience in teaching but also in the
scientific evidence – there has been evidence that the brains of science and humanities students
differ (Takeuchi, et al., 2014).
2. Methodology
The study was conducted in the winter semester of the academic year 2014/2015. The
participants of the research were 142 Russian and Croatian students of two universities:
Novosibirsk State Pedagogical University (NSPU) in Russia and University North (UNIN) in
Croatia (Figure 1). There were 66 male and 78 female students (Figure 2) of approximately the
same age– the average age of participants was20. The students of these two universities study
programs belonging to three scientific fields: humanities, technical sciences and social sciences,
with the Russian students belonging to humanities and the Croatian to technical and social
sciences (Figure 3).

Croatian

29%
71%

46%
54%

Russian

Figure 1.Nationality of participants

Male
Female

Figure 2. Gender of participants

Technical
sciences
29%
27%

44%

Social
sciences
Humanities

Figure 3. Scientific field that participants belong to

�Definitions of a value love and its anti-value hatred were collected from different Russian and
Croatian sources: monolingual dictionaries and encyclopedias from the fields of philosophy,
psychology, theology, and general encyclopedia. The authors translated the explanations of the
obtained semantic components into English and after a thorough comparison, 16 definitions of
love and 7 definitions of hatred were singled out from all the used sources. These definitions
were then used as statements of a questionnaire which was given to the participants. They were
asked to choose a number on a Likert scale from 1 to 5, where number 1 was equal to ‘I strongly
disagree’ and 5 to ‘I strongly agree’. The data was collected during the regular lessons at the
universities (English language and Philosophy) and was later analyzed by using the software
SPSS. Chi-square test has been conducted, with p&lt;0.01.
3. Results and discussion
When analyzing the results, the authors wanted to see whether there were any statements that
students preferred or opted for more frequently or they chose higher values. Therefore, the
frequencies of the statements have been calculated. According to the analyzed results, the
students marked three statements describing love with the dominant value of 5 – love as a
complex emotion; love as a state of caring (giving and sacrificing for another person); and love as
a desire to be present in the life of the other person (Table 1).
Table 1. Frequencies of definitions of love
LOVE – definition

N

Mo

state of dependence on another person

3

state of longing for another person

4

complex emotion

5

state of caring (giving and sacrificing for another person)

5

force that causes reconciliation
condition of reflection by presenting the loss of oneself

144

4
3

active influence

4

intention (act of will)

4

inclination towards good

4

form of sociability (relations based on natural biological sexual drive)

4

�ambivalence of attitudes

3

cardinal virtue (chastity)

3

self-giving (the act of complete giving)

4

emotionally positive attitude to an object in the center of the vital needs

3

feeling physiologically determined by sexual needs

4

desire to be present in the life of the other person

5

With regard to hatred, two definitions were marked with the highest value by the majority of
students: hatred as a deep emotional attitude characterized by feeling of anger, and hatred as a
deep emotional attitude characterized by feeling of hostility (Table 2). The other definitions were
marked by most of the students with value 3 (I neither agree nor disagree).
Table 2. Frequencies of definitions of hatred
HATRED - definition

N

Mo

deep emotional attitude characterized by feeling of anger

5

deep emotional attitude characterized by feeling of hostility

5

deep emotional attitude characterized by feeling of disgust

3

deep emotional attitude characterized by feeling of desire to cause the object pain

3

or harm
deep emotional attitude characterized by feeling of repulsion
deep emotional attitude characterized by persecution and harassment of the

144

3
3

object of hatred
aspiration to cause pain and feel the satisfaction that results from an unpleasant

3

situation in which the object of hatred is

These results show that when it comes to the notion of love, the students have agreed or strongly
agreed with the definitions they were offered with. As it regards hatred, they were less ready to
agree with the statements – most of them were indifferent to them. However, they seem to
associate hatred mostly with feelings of anger and hostility.

�When we look at the statements that most of the students strongly agreed with (Figures 4 and 5),
we see that the definition of love as the state of caring can be chosen as the definition that most of
the students agree with. On the other hand, the definition of hatred is not as ‘clear-cut’ – the
values that the students have chosen show more similarity. However, we noticed that they relate
hatred mostly to the feeling of anger.

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

strongly disagree
disagree
neither agree nor disagree
agree
complex
emotion

state of caring

desire to be
present in the
life of the
other person

strongly agree

Figure 4.Frequencies of definitions of love marked with the highest value by the majority of the
students

60
50
strongly disagree

40

disagree

30

neither agree nor disagree

20

agree

10

strongly agree

0
deep emotional attitude
deep emotional attitude
characterized by feeling of characterized by feeling of
anger
hostility

Figure 5.Frequencies of definitions of hatred marked with the highest value by the majority of
the students

�In order to find out whether there are any statistically significant differences regarding the
nationality and the field of study in relation to the statements, we looked at all the statements
(definitions of love and of hatred). The obtained data has been analyzed using the SPSS software
–a chi-square test has been conducted and we opted for the p&lt;0.01 since this allows only a 1%
chance that the deviation is due to chance alone.
The results showed statistically significant difference with regard to nationality for only two of
the statements: love as an emotionally positive attitude to an object in the center of the vital needs
and hatred as aspiration to cause pain and feel the satisfaction that results from an unpleasant
situation in which the object of hatred is.
Table 3 shows the statistical significance of results of dependence of love as an emotionally
positive attitude to an object in the center of the vital needs with regard to nationality. It can be
seen that majority of Croatians opted for value 3 and Russians for value 4. Moreover, only 19%
of Russians opted for 3 compared to 51% of Croatians. Only 8.8% of Croatians opted for value 5
compared to 31% of Russians. It has to be mentioned that the mode value for this definition was
equal to 3 – the reason for that might be the fact that the opinion of Croatians prevailed maybe
because there were more Croatians than Russian students.

�Table 3.Love as an emotionally positive attitude to an object in the center of the vital
needs with regard to nationality
Love as an emotionally positive
attitude to an object in the center of
the vital needs with regard to
nationality

Nationality Croatia
n

1

2

3

4

5

Total

Count

4

8

52

29

9

102

% within

3,9%

7,8% 51,0% 28,4% 8,8%

100,0%

80,0% 61,5% 86,7% 65,9% 40,9%

70,8%

% of Total

2,8%

70,8%

Count

1

Nationality
% within attitude

Russian

% within

5,6% 36,1% 20,1% 6,3%
5

8

15

13

42

2,4% 11,9% 19,0% 35,7% 31,0%

100,0%

20,0% 38,5% 13,3% 34,1% 59,1%

29,2%

Nationality
% within attitude

Total

% of Total

,7%

3,5%

Count

5

13

% within

3,5%

5,6% 10,4% 9,0%
60

44

22

29,2%
144

9,0% 41,7% 30,6% 15,3%

100,0%

100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

100,0%

Nationality
% within attitude

%
% of Total

3,5%

%

%

%

%

9,0% 41,7% 30,6% 15,3%

100,0%

Table 4 shows the results of dependence of nationality and hatred as aspiration to cause pain and
feel the satisfaction that results from an unpleasant situation in which the object of hatred is.
Again, most of the Croatians opted for value 3 and Russians for value 4.

�Table 4.Hatred as aspiration to cause pain and feel the satisfaction that results from an
unpleasant situation in which the object of hatred finds him/her
Hatred as aspiration to cause pain and
feel the satisfaction that results from an
unpleasant situation in which the object
of hatred is

Nationality Croatia
n

1

2

3

4

5

Total

17

16

40

10

18

101

39,6%

9,9%

17,8%

100,0%

65,4% 69,6%

85,1%

40,0%

81,8%

70,6%

11,9% 11,2%

28,0%

7,0%

12,6%

70,6%

7

15

4

42

16,7%

35,7%

9,5%

100,0%

34,6% 30,4%

14,9%

60,0%

18,2%

29,4%

% of Total

6,3%

4,9%

4,9%

10,5%

2,8%

29,4%

Count

26

23

47

25

22

143

32,9%

17,5%

15,4%

100,0%

Count

% within Nationality 16,8% 15,8%
% within painsatisfaction
% of Total

Russia
n

Count

9

7

% within Nationality 21,4% 16,7%
% within painsatisfaction

Total

% within Nationality 18,2% 16,1%
% within painsatisfaction
% of Total

100,0 100,0% 100,0% 100,0% 100,0% 100,0%
%
18,2% 16,1%

32,9%

17,5%

15,4%

100,0%

There was no statistically significant difference in the choice of the statements regarding the
scientific field, neither for love nor hatred.
4. Conclusion
The present world shows an amazing variety of cultures, both in terms of values and in terms of
practices. Culture is a collective phenomenon since it is at least partly shared with people who

�live or lived within the same social environment. It consists of the unwritten rules of the social
game. Culture is learned, not innate. On the other hand, values are implicit: they belong to the
invisible software of our minds. Additionally, values are the deepest manifestations of culture.
Hence, the core of culture is formed by values. Values are broad tendencies to prefer certain
states of affairs over others. Talking about our own values is difficult, because it implies
questioning our motives, emotions, and taboos. Our own culture is to us like the air we breathe,
while another culture is like water – it takes special skills to be able to survive in both elements
(Hofstede G., Hofstede G. J., Minkov M, 2010).
Although students in this survey are from two different countries and are students of different
fields of study, the final results show a similarity between the attitude of the Russian and Croatian
students regarding the definitions of love and hatred. An interesting fact that speaks in favor of
the similarity between these two cultures is that the authors, when trying to find the definitions of
these (anti)-values, had problems with finding the definitions of hatred – there are different
descriptions of love and only several of hatred. That is the reason why there are sixteen
definitions of love and only seven of hatred. The authors explain this discrepancy with the fact
that there are different relations that we describe as love (love towards our friends, siblings,
spouse, etc.) whereas hatred is less complicated to describe it.
Moreover, the perception of love and hatred is very similar in these two cultures (nationalities)
and in the fields of science. Therefore, this shows that love and hatred are universal values –
values perceived in a similar way.
These results confirm the (null) hypothesis that there are no differences between nationalities or
scientific fields when it comes to the level of agreement with the statements/definitions of love
and hatred. Minor statistically significant differences were obtained with the aforementioned two
statements. Therefore, we could conclude that we ARE talking about universal values. However,
we should be aware that the research described in this paper has its limitations with regard to the
number of respondents – the majority of respondents are Croatian and the Croatian opinion
prevailed as the opinion of majority. Consequently, the authors suggest conducting the same
research with more participants from more cultures/nationalities. The data would give an insight
into the perception of love and hatred as universal values from various points of view, i.e. points
of view of various nationalities.

�References:

Bromley, Y.V. (1974). Races and Peoples: Contemporary Ethnic and Racial Problems. Central
Books Ltd.
Hofstede G., Hofstede G. J., Minkov M. (2010). Cultures and Organization.Software of the
Mind.Intercultural Cooperation and Its Importance for Survival. New York: McGraw Hill.
Lange, D. L., &amp; Paige, R. M. (2003). Culture as the Core: Perspectives on Culture in Second
Language Learning. Charlotte, NC: Information Age Publishing.
Lewis, R. D. (2006). When Cultures Collide: Leading Across Cultures. Boston, MA: Nicholas
Brealey Publishing.
Prinz, J. (2011). Culture and Cognitive Science. Retrieved from The Stanford Encyclopedia of
Philosophy: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/culture-cogsci/
Stepanyants,M.T.(1996). The east and the west, the 7th philosophical conference held in
Honolulu, Hawaii, United-States, January 1995, Voprosy filosofii, (3), pp. 143-150
Takeuchi, H., Taki, Y., Sekiguchi, A., Nouchi, R., Kotozaki, Y., Nakagawa, S., Kawashima, R.
(2014). Brain structures in the sciences and humanities. Brain structure &amp; function.
Zilberman, D.B. (1996). Tradition as communication - translation of values and written language,
Voprosyfilosofii, (4), pp. 76-105.
Ryzhakova,S. I.,Arutyunov,S. A. (2004). Kulturnaiaantropologiia.Ves’ Mir.

�</text>
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                <text>LOVE AND HATRED IN TWO LANGUAGES: CROSS-CULTURAL ANALYSIS</text>
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Kostina, Ekatarina
Kolednjak, Marijana</text>
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                <text>Living in a world that has become a 'global village' makes different nations seem very similar - we dress in a very similar way, we listen to the similar music, we sometimes even use the same words. But how similar are we when it comes to understanding another person’s culture and values related to some of the general notions, such as love and hatred? The authors of this paper come from two countries that speak Slavic languages and are in many ways similar: Russia and Croatia. This similarity initiated a cross-cultural research described further in the paper. The authors have compared the meanings of two opposite notions (a value and an anti-value) - love and hatred - with regard to the meaning and importance they have in these two countries and how they are used in their respective languages. The definitions of the value love were collected from various available dictionaries in different areas and then analyzed as semantic components. Then the same procedure was conducted with the anti-value hatred. Since these semantic components are used in sentences/phrases in Russian and Croatian in various ways, their comparison has been made. Furthermore, students of two universities (one Russian and one Croatian) filled in a questionnaire regarding the meaning these notions have for them. The purpose of the questionnaire was to help the authors find out whether there are similarities/differences in how these two notions are perceived in their respective countries and languages and whether their meanings and importance for the culture differ. The obtained results will offer some insight into the Russian and Croatian languages when compared on the linguistic and cultural level with regard to a value and an anti-value.</text>
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                    <text>PROCEEDINGS

th

______ The 5 International Symposium on Sustainable Development_______

ISSD 2014

LOW COST AND PORTABLE HEARTBEAT RATE MEASUREMENT
FROM THE FINGER
Bahadır Cömert, Ayhan İstanbullu, Uğur Turhal
Department of Computer Engineering, Balıkesir University
baha_c.84@hotmail.com, iayhan@balikesir.edu.tr, ugurturhal@balikesir.edu.tr

ABSTRACT
In this study, portable and low cost heart beat rate measurement device has been designed
with using PIC 16F877. It measures heart beat rates from finger using optical sensors and the
rate is then averaged and displayed on a text based LCD. The finger tip probe has been
selected from commercial products. The device works with 1 x 9V battery. Also it measures
ambient temperature and humidity in addition to heart beat. The measurement accuracy is
acceptable. The hardware that has been designed in this study is available for checking the
pulse with education purpose. The hardware can be improved adding wireless data transfer
devices in telemedicine applications. The device has the advantage that it can be used by nonprofessional people at home to measure the heart rate easily and safely. This paper report
describes how to build a digital heart-rate monitor using a PIC 16F877 microcontroller
(MCU). The heart beat rate per minute is displayed on an LCD.
Keywords: biomedical instrumentation, heart rate measurement, bio electronic, PIC 16F877

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I. INTRODUCTION
The heart is a strong pump which pumps between 5-35 litre blood to the body with changing
speed between 60-80 beats per minute and approximately 9000 litres in a day. The regular
control and the measurement of heart beat per minute (bpm) of an organ , active in body like
this, are quite important. One of the mostly used and certain methods for measuring the heart
rate is electro-cardiogram (ECG). ECG is an expensive device and it is not economical for
heart rate measurement. There are also some devices like wrist whatches which are low-cost.
These devices can give certain results but although they are low-cost, their price is very high
which makes them uneconomic.
There are many measurement methods valid for this. However, the use of digital sensors in
measurements makes having much certain and correct results possible. In fact, these
measurement sensors have started to being placed in smart phones in modern day. However,
this technology is getting more expensive as it is getting smaller.
Sport is in every step of life. Mostly, athletes have lower heart rates than people who move
relatively less. While the heart rates of older children are about 90, the heart rates of babies
are about 120. The heart rate gradually increases while doing exercises and it returns slowly
to the rest value after exercises. The revealing rate, when the pulse is normal, is the indicator
of how healthy the person is. The values below the normal heart rate are usually signs of
bradycardia; and the values above the normal heart rate are signs of tachycardia. However, the
sport can cause a heart attack when it is done unconsciously. The heart attack was the second
illness is stated 722,130 between 2000-2011. These results prove the importance of regular
cardiac rhythm control [10].
When the literature is reviewed for the studies made about this issue, it is possible to see some
other low cost more developed studies or like the present one.
In their study Hashem and his colleagues combine analogue and digital signal processing
techniques to keep the device simple and to efficiently suppress the disturbance in signals.
Their experimental studies show that the heart rate can be filtered and digitized so that it is
possible to calculate the accurate pulse rate.
In Laghrouche’s study, arterial oxygen saturation in the patient’s blood signal is measured
with an optical sensor and converted to digital data using a microcontroller system. Then the
digital data are sent to a receiver where it is in 433 MHz FM-FSK transmitter. At the receiver,
the digital data are reconverted to analog signal to be monitored and recorded on the PC.
In Mamun’s study, a measurement circuit is developed by using a low cost ATmega8
microcontroller system from ATMEL. This measurement circuit can be easily used by
families, hospitals, clinics and sports centre.
In Toral and his colleagues’ study, pulse, SpO2 and temperature signals are conveyed to
computer and displayed with LabVIEW program. In this study, wireless communication
technologies are not used.
The aim of this study is to design a low-cost and portable cardiac rhythm measuring
instrument and to make a critical measurement real. The designed device is working with
1x9V the ambient temperature and moisture. The design circuit and graphics (software
program) about the device are shared in this study.

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ISSD 2014

II. THE PULSE OXIMETRY DEVICE
The pulse oximetre are devices that measure the oxygenation of blood passing through tissue
bed which is between photodedector and light source that give out red and infrared light with
special probes placed on finger or ear. The block diagram of mentioned device is shown in
Figure 1. Actually, the device consist of infrared transmitter LED and infrared receiver
photodiode. The transmitter-sensors is fixed to finger of the subject. ( Figure 2)

Figure 1: Block diagram of the measurement device

Figure 2: Transmitter-sensors is fixed to finger of the subject
The LED sends infrared light to the finger. Photo-transistor detects this ray and measures the
change in blood amount from finger artery. This signal as pulse, then is increased, filtered and
sent to the low-cost microcontroller to analyze and show. The microcontroller counts the
number of pulses in certain intervals and therefore, the heart rate of the subject is obtained.
This input is collected for a while and averaged to see the heart rate accurately. The calculated
heart rate is displayed on LCD as beats per minute. The circuit diagram of measurement
device is shown in Figure 3 and printed circuit diagram is shown in Figure 4 and sample
measurement results are shown in Figures 5-6-7.

Figure 3: Circuit diagram of measurement device
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PROCEEDINGS

Figure 4: Printed circuit diagram

Figure 5: Sample measurement results

Figure 6: Sample measurement results

Figure 7: Sample measurement results
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III. THE STRUCTURE AND OPERATION OF CIRCUIT
The circuit basically consist of two functional amplifiers, a low-pass filter, a microcontroller
and an LCD. During the studies, it is determined to use low-pass filter in the circuit to filter
the high frequency noise coming from surroundings. The corner frequency of amplifier is
chosen as 1.6 Hz. The output of amplifier is connected to one of the digital inputs of
PIC16F877 version microcontroller via R4 resistance and RV1 trimpot. In order to decrease
the cost of circuit, the microcontroller is worked from 4 MHz resonator. The output ports of
microcontroller are connected to the LCD. The circuit starts when it is pressed on push-button
switch working with 9V battery.
When the structure of circuit is analysed; C5 (47 uF) capacitor functions as filter. R7 (10K)
resistance is a current limiting resistor that prevents the high current that will follow on D1
(IR LED) diode. D1 and D2 diodes in the circuit diagram consist of IR Led Transmitter and
photodiode receiver which form the internal structure of device called pulse oximeter. After
the pulse oximeter is fixed to the index finger, a signal is sent to zener diode by D1 (IR)
transmitter as to pressure of blood flowing through fingertip. This signal sent to the zener
diode starts to sway smoothly. D2 (Photodiode) receiver diode receives the signal sent by D1
(IR) transmitter diode and voltage is formed upon the amount of signal. This voltage is
enhanced with maximum lucrative LM358N (U5:A) op-amp. A signal is obtained in response
to the voltage enhanced by op-opamp.This signal is filtered from low pass filter consisting of
R6 resistance and C6 capacitor. After that, oscillation is decreased to minimum and is
implemented to the output of LM358N (U5:B) op-amp and the analogue input of
microcontroller (MCU). The implemented voltage is calibrated with RV1 trimpot. And this
calibrated voltage is transformed into an understandable numerical value with software
program and then it is conveyed to LCD screen via PORTB that is the output of
microcontroller. In addition to the pulse number, ambient temperature and moisture are also
conveyed to the LCD screen after being measured with the SHT11 heat and moisture sensor
connected to the PORTD output of MCU. This pulse oximeter device is low-cost and its
accuracy rating is not high enough, so it is quite important to place the finger’s plump point
properly into the device’s slot.

IV. THE SOFTWARE OF CIRCUIT IN COMPUTER LANGUAGE
The software is developed by using popular C basic compiler and CCS-C is used as program
description language. In Figure 8 below, the program listing of microcontroller is given.
When it is mentioned about the written program; at the beginning of the program, variables
used in program are referred. RB0-RB7 and RD0-RD1 pins of PORT B are used as outputs.
RA2 pin of PORT A is set as input port. The Program starts when the key, which works with
9V battery, is on and after the pulse oximeter is fixed to fingertip. As the analogue-digital
converter pin of microcontroller, RA2 pin transforms the voltage that is transmitted from
finger into a numerical value. After that, the pulse value measured from finger is transmitted
to for loop and a sample of pulse value is obtained in every 50 ms. And this process is
repeated 30 times. The reason for this repetition is to reach the truest pulse value by obtaining
many samples. These 30 samples are averaged and divided by 60. The numerical value of
voltage coming from fingertip as a result of measurements is multiplied by 2, because the
response of this voltage gives the real pulse value. And this is the reason for dividing the
average by 60. If the device is not fixed to finger or the pulse value is lower than 50 or higher
than 140, pulse value will not be displayed and “WRONG MEASUREMENT” will be
displayed as a warning. And lastly; with the measure pulse value, ambient temperature and
moisture are also displayed on LCD screen.
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Program Software
#include &lt;16F877A.h&gt;
#device adc=10
#FUSES XT,PROTECT
#use delay(clock=4MHz)
#include &lt;Port-B-LCD.c&gt;
#include &lt;sht11.c&gt;
float restemp, truehumid;
float olcum;
int1 a;
int8 say;
long ort;
void main()
{
setup_adc_ports(ALL_ANALOG);
setup_adc(ADC_clock_div_32);
setup_psp(PSP_DISABLED);
setup_spi(SPI_SS_DISABLED);
setup_timer_0(RTCC_INTERNAL|
RTCC_DIV_1);
setup_timer_1(T1_DISABLED);
setup_timer_2(T2_DISABLED,0,1);
setup_comparator(NC_NC_NC_NC);
setup_vref(FALSE);
lcd_hazirla();
output_low(pin_b4);
set_adc_channel(2);
delay_ms(1);
sht_init();
while(TRUE)
{
ort=0;
for (say=0;say&lt;30;say++)
{
olcum=read_adc();
ort=ort+olcum;
delay_ms(50)
}
sht_rd (restemp, truehumid);
olcum=ort/60;
imlec(1,1);

if(olcum&gt;50&amp;&amp;olcum&lt;140)
{
printf(lcd_veri,"NABIZ=%2.0f
" ,olcum);
}
else
{
a++;if (a==0) printf(lcd_veri,"HATALI OLCUM!");
if (a==1) printf(lcd_veri,".............");
}
imlec(2,1);
printf(lcd_veri,"T=%3.1f%cC", restemp,223);
imlec(2,10);
printf(lcd_veri,"Rh=%2.0f%% ", truehumid);
}

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�PROCEEDINGS

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______ The 5 International Symposium on Sustainable Development_______

ISSD 2014

V. CONCLUSION
In order to measure the heart rate, low-cost and microcontroller based device is described.
The device has an advantage that it can be used by any people who is not professional and it
makes it possible to measure the heart rate safely and easily.
The device can be developed in some areas as shown below:
 Voice can be added to the device and therefore; voice output will be possible during the
pulse.
 The highest and lowest heart rate numbers can be displayed after a while.
 Serial output can be added to the device and therefore; heart beats can be sent to the PC
for online and offline analysis.
Warnings or abnormalities (as too high or too low heart beats) can be shown on the LCD or
with a LED or with a bell.
REFERENCES
[1]

Forerunner 201/301 User Guide, web site: http://www.grmin.com

[2]

Pulsar heart rate monitors, web site:http://www.heartratemonitor.co.uk

[3]

Cosy Communications web site: http://cosycommunications.com

[4] Johnston, W.S., Mendelson, Y. (2004). Extracting breathing rate information from a wearable reflectance
pulse oximeter sensor. In Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society - IEMBS '04 : 26th Annual International
Conference of the IEEE. Vol. 2, 5388-5391.
[5] Paradiso, R, Loriga, G., Taccini, N. (2005). A wearable health care system based on knitted integrated
sensors. IEEE Transactions on Information Technology in Biomedicine, 9, 337-344.
[6] D. Ibrahim and K. Buruncuk, "Heart Rate Measurement from the Finger Using a Low- Cost
Microcontroller," Near East University, Faculty Of Engineering, TRN, 2005.
[7] S. Kara, et al., "Low-cost compact ECG with graphic LCD and phonocardiogram system design," Journal
of Medical Systems, vol. 30, pp. 205-209, 2006.
[8] V. Jayasree, et al., "Design and Development Of a Simple Hardware Setup for Sensing Blood Volume
Pulse and a PIC Microcontroller Based Heart Rate Meter," in Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Engineering,
2006. ICBPE 2006. International Conference on, 2006, pp. 256-258.
[9] M. Laghrouche , S. Haddab, S. Lotmani, K. Mekdoud, S. Ameur, " Low-Cost Embedded Oximeter,"
Mouloud MAMMERI University, LAMPA Laboratory, Department of Electronics, Po Box 17 RP 15000.
[10]https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/GesellschaftStaat/Gesundheit/Todesursachen/Tabellen/Sterbefaell
eInsgesamt.html.

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PROCEEDINGS

Bahadır Cömert was born in Samsun, Turkey in 1984. He graduated in 2011 from
Departmen of Electronic-Computer Science Education, Electronic and Communication
Teaching in Marmara University in İstanbul. He is having his post graduate in Balıkesir
University in Turkey. His current research interests include the investigation of information
technologies to support electronic and electronic engineering education, medical
instrumentation and medical informatic.
Ayhan Istanbullu was born in Kutahya, Turkey in 1972. He was awarded his Ph.D. degree in
2003 from Gazi University in Turkey. Between 2001 and 2006 he was an instructor at the
University of Mugla, Turkey in the Department of Electronic and Computer Science
Education. He is currently an Associated Professor in the Computer Engineering Department
of Balikesir University, Turkey. His current research interests include the investigation of
information technologies to support electronic and computer engineering education, medical
instrumentation and medical informatic.
Uğur TURHAL was born in Trabzon, Turkey in 1988. He was graduated with Bachelor’s
degree from Marmara University in 2011. He is a graduate student in the Computer
Engineering Department of Yalova University, Turkey. Also, He is working as a computer
specialist at Balikesir University, Turkey. Interested areas are; Bioinformatics, Signal
Processing, Microarray Datasets, Cancer Dieseases

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                <text>In this study, portable and low cost heart beat rate measurement device has been designed  with using PIC 16F877. It measures heart beat rates from finger using optical sensors and the  rate is then averaged and displayed on a text based LCD. The finger tip probe has been  selected from commercial products. The device works with 1 x 9V battery. Also it measures  ambient temperature and humidity in addition to heart beat. The measurement accuracy is  acceptable. The hardware that has been designed in this study is available for checking the  pulse with education purpose. The hardware can be improved adding wireless data transfer  devices in telemedicine applications. The device has the advantage that it can be used by nonprofessional  people at home to measure the heart rate easily and safely. This paper report  describes how to build a digital heart-rate monitor using a PIC 16F877 microcontroller  (MCU). The heart beat rate per minute is displayed on an LCD.  Keywords: biomedical instrumentation, heart rate measurement, bio electronic, PIC 16F877</text>
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                    <text>International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

Maastricht Treaty in the Shaping and Development of the
Common Foreign and Security Policy
Snezana Bardarova
University Goce Delcev-Stip, Republic of Macedonia
snezana.bardarova@ugd.edu.mk
Mimoza Serafimovska
University Goce Delcev-Stip, Republic of Macedonia
mimoza.serafimovska@ugd.edu.mk
Tanja Angelkova
University Goce Delcev-Stip, Republic of Macedonia
tanja.angelkova@ugd.edu.mk
For the European Union, in whose framework still dominates the European
Community, it discusses how to deliver (great project) European
unification, which started on the ground ruined Europe after World War II,
in 50 years of the last century. Motivated by the idea that the association
of European countries is a far better alternative to the previous mutually
confronted Europe, a project called (European Union) in the following
decades led to the emergence of a new, unprecedented work on European
soil-European Union. European Union, in its present form is the product of
more than 50 years of evolution of European integration, which today
despite initial six Western European countries including the former main
rivals Germany and France includes 27 member countries of the Union, as
well as many other countries with candidate status for membership in the
European Union. Seen in the development context, the Union is not a
preconceived model of the association of European countries, but is the
product of a complex multiple decade-long process of integration in which
different actors are involved. Within this process, depending on the
achieved level of integration, the Union received a different shape. In its
present form and name as the European Union it occurs even in the early
nineties of the last century, long before it passed through small-scale
forms of integration. More decades of European integration is based on
the desire of European countries for the mutual integration, based on the
firmly expressed mutual interest. The motives for each integrating a variety
of security to purely economic and political, more or less pronounced in
each Member State of the European Union. Of the many factors that have
influenced the emergence and development of the European Communities
260

�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

and their transformation into today's Union to distinguish political and
security interests of Member States. Hardly any integration project has had
such a long initial period as foreign and security policy of the failure of the
European Defense Community, 1954, to the Treaties of Maastricht (1992),
Amsterdam (1999) and Nice (2000). Due to political constraints on the
sovereignty and political interests of the Union, by the end of the Cold War
efforts on building security and defense policy were unsuccessful.
Excessive force was Europe's dependence on NATO and U.S. nuclear
protection.
Keywords: Security, Integration, EU Policy, Countries, Agreements.

261

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                    <text>International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

Maastricht Treaty in the Shaping and Development of the Common
Foreign and Security Policy
Snezana Bardarova
University Goce Delcev-Stip, Republic of Macedonia
snezana.bardarova@ugd.edu.mk
Mimoza Serafimovska
University Goce Delcev-Stip, Republic of Macedonia
mimoza.serafimovska@ugd.edu.mk
Tanja Angelkova
University Goce Delcev-Stip, Republic of Macedonia
tanja.angelkova@ugd.edu.mk
Abstract
For the European Union, in whose framework still dominates the European
Community, it discusses how to deliver (great project) European unification, which
started on the ground ruined Europe after World War II, in 50 years of the last
century. Motivated by the idea that the association of European countries is a far
better alternative to the previous mutually confronted Europe, a project called
(European Union) in the following decades led to the emergence of a new,
unprecedented work on European soil-European Union. European Union, in its
present form is the product of more than 50 years of evolution of European
integration, which today despite initial six Western European countries including
the former main rivals Germany and France includes 27 member countries of the
Union, as well as many other countries with candidate status for membership in the
European Union. Seen in the development context, the Union is not a preconceived
model of the association of European countries, but is the product of a complex
multiple decade-long process of integration in which different actors are involved.
Within this process, depending on the achieved level of integration, the Union
received a different shape. In its present form and name as the European Union it
occurs even in the early nineties of the last century, long before it passed through
small-scale forms of integration. More decades of European integration is based on
the desire of European countries for the mutual integration, based on the firmly
expressed mutual interest. The motives for each integrating a variety of security to
purely economic and political, more or less pronounced in each Member State of
the European Union. Of the many factors that have influenced the emergence and
development of the European Communities and their transformation into today's
Union to distinguish political and security interests of Member States. Hardly any
integration project has had such a long initial period as foreign and security policy
of the failure of the European Defense Community, 1954, to the Treaties of
Maastricht (1992), Amsterdam (1999) and Nice (2000). Due to political constraints
on the sovereignty and political interests of the Union, by the end of the Cold War
efforts on building security and defense policy were unsuccessful. Excessive force
was Europe's dependence on NATO and U.S. nuclear protection.
Keywords: Security,Integration, EUPolicy,Countries, Agreements.

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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

Introduction
European Union through its decades of development going through multiple forms first
appears as a form of closer integration in two major industrial sectors-sectors of coal and
steel through the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), established in Paris on
April 18, 1951, and March 25, 1957 in Rome, European integration expands Atomic
Energy sector within the European Atomic Energy Community (EUROATOM) and the
same year was upgraded with a more extensive form of economic integration within the
European Economic Community ( EEC).
Today's European Union is made up of three separate towers which includes:
1. European Community
2. Common Foreign and Security Policy
3. Cooperation in the field of justice and home affairs.
Momentum for integration through the creation of three communities in the 50's is the
result of a desire to terminate recurrent habit of bloody conflicts between states, as a
feature of European politics in the past, which culminated in the Second World War. In
this sense, the political-military elites were forced to seek a new over-national European
political structure in which the realization of the national interest was no longer left to be a
concern only individual states, in European history proved to be a painful and extremely
destructive.1 For a longer period of duration of the so-called. Cold War in Europe, the
initiative and initial assistance from the United States through so-called. Marshall Plan, the
integration within the European Communities had a function to create a political and
security umbrella for the western European democracies in terms of the former East
European liner headed by the former USSR, as a block of integrated members of
equivalent traditions and related internal systems. Security dimension of European
integration continues after the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the USSR, aimed
at meeting the new challenges and achieving new goals, so that security feature is
introduced in the structure of today's European Union as an important segment of the
second pillar EU Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU.
Chronology-development of the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU by
the Maastricht Treaty
1948, March - UK, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg sign Brussels Treaty
for mutual defense;
April 1949 - The United States, Canada, and ten Western European countries signed the
North Atlantic Treaty;
May 1952 - founding member of the ECSC sign the Treaty on European defense
community with a view to establishing a common European army, but in August 1954 the
French National Assembly did not approve the contract signed and the project fails;
December 1954 - on the basis of the Brussels Treaty established Western European Union
that includes Italy and West Germany. West Germany entered NATO;
December 1969 - The Hague Summit, the Heads of State or Government of the Member

1

Stephen Weatherill, “Law and Integration in the European Union” , Claredon Press Oxford, 1995

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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

States of the Communities borrow foreign ministers to study ways to boost European
political integration;
October 1970 - Foreign Ministers of the Member States of the Communities adopt the
Luxembourg report that establishes European political cooperation within which ministers
meet every six months to coordinate their positions on international issues and to agree on
common stock and assists the Committee of Directors General for Political Affairs
(Political Committee);
July 1973 - Ministers winning Copenhagen report which promotes the European political
cooperation EPS (ministerial meetings at least four times a year, meeting the needs of the
Political Committee who help European correspondents and working groups, the
Commission contribution stances sessions );
October 1981 - Adoption of London report that provides a mechanism for consultation in
crisis (which can be three Foreign Ministers to convene an urgent meeting within 48
hours), in meetings with representatives tretti states, the chair can be accompanied the
previous and the next chairman, and the Commission is fully associated to the European
political cooperation-EPS;
October 1984 - reactivation of the Western European Union WEU (Ministers of Foreign
Affairs and of Defence states that founded the WEU agreed to meet on a regular basis);
February 1986 - signature of the Single European Act-EEA in which that special title 3 is
devoted to European Political Cooperation EPS within which can be considered the
political and economic aspects of security in order to achieve compliance PSU with
external Relations of the European Community;
February 1992 - signature of the Maastricht Treaty that the European political cooperation
EPS is replaced by the Common Foreign and Security Policy - CFSP. Council of Ministers
decides on common positions and joint actions, the implementation of which, once you
reach a qualified majority. The Commission has the right of initiative, the WEU and the
EU may require to implement the decisions which have defense implications;
October 1997 - Signing of the Treaty of Amsterdam introduced several reforms established
a Common Foreign and Security Policy - CFSP (qualified majority is required for the
implementation of joint strategies determined by the European Council, the Member States
may refrain from voting, set up a High Representative for CFSP, which replaces the
functioningthreesome, who also chairs the session for policy planning and early warning.
Brief Overview of the History and Development of Foreign and Security Policy
Security Policy of the European Union dates back to before the creation of the European
unification. After two world wars in the first place was the creation of a European structure
of peace through integration. The first step was the establishment of the European Coal and
Steel Community (Paris 04/18/1951), the industries of France, Germany, Italy and the
Benelux countries (Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg) associated with the production
and use of coal and steel as a basic raw material arms that are considered as important for
leading the war, placed under a high authority. Buoyed by the success of the European
Community for Coal and Steel, senior representatives of the Member States undertake to

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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

find forms and methods of deepening and widening integration. Despite initiatives to
expand the integration processes have emerged and suggestions for the creation of a
military-political union. After the Second World War, Europe ruined lost its leading
position in the world and the USSR and the United States because of the military power
that manifested in the war and his contribution to the victory over fascism first broke out as
a military, political and economic forces. After acknowledging the situation in Europe, the
U.S. Secretary of State, offers U.S. aid to the reconstruction and development of Europe,
and June 5, 1947 has been accepted for Reconstruction and Development program of
Europe known as the Marshall Plan. April 4, 1949 in Washington was established North
Atlantic Treaty which was formed a military alliance of the U.S., Canada, UK, France,
Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Portugal. After
three years of the Agreement joined Greece and Turkey, and in 1955 joined Germany and
Spain. The creation of the North Atlantic or the NATO alliance, led to a new phase in
relations between states separated from Europe and the world. Well firstly ensuring peace
countries of Europe and the world is taking place within the UN. Afterwards projects
European defense community (ЕОЗ) and European Political Community (EPO) that fail
due to loss of votes in the French National Assembly. In 1953, the French government
presented a draft agreement for the establishment of a European defense community with a
common army and defense minister. Draft for approval by Parliament of the ECSC, was
ratified by more countries members but not the country that proposed the draft, France.
Suffered a similar fate and creating draft European political community, or European
Union. This Union according to the concept of the proposers should be not only one of the
communities, but also the beginning of a real federalization of Europe and she should be
sorted ECSC and the European Defense Community. The reasons for the failure of these
initiatives are extremely radical and zealots were offering solutions of which were not in
line with the realities of what was then Europe. Namely European countries were not ready
for such a radical supranational step.
Maastricht Treaty on Eueopean Union - Legal Basis for Establishing the European
Common Foreign and Security Policy
The end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union (1990/1991) radically
changed the security and political environment and reduce European dependence on
American protection. Experiences with the new regional conflicts contribute to setting up
an independent European security policy agenda that integrated policy. By the Treaty of
Maastricht common foreign and security policy, under the title of European political
cooperation, and after it was renamed the European Common Foreign and Security Policy.
The name defines its main goal-saving EU foreign policy interests, independence, security
and defense policy, ensuring peace, the strengthening of democracy, rule of law, human
rights and freedoms, political dialogue, sending peacekeeping forces separation and
resolution of crises military hot spots in Europe and in the world. Its activity is particularly
increased after the disintegration of the USSR, the Yugoslav Federation and other
countries of the Middle East with the process of independence and the creation of
independent states, followed by military conflicts. European Union by sending
peacekeeping and humanitarian missions and rapid reaction forces neutralized further
escalation and spread of hostilities and endeavor to secure peace through political dialogue.
Intergovernmental Conference, held in Maastricht on 9 and 10:12 1991 finished by then
major reform of the Treaties of Rome. The idea of the European Union has been realized
with the Treaty establishing the European Union of 7 February 1992: Community by a
predominantly economically integrated institution that is based on political cooperation,

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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

then develops in the Union, with the new EU agreement covering the Common Foreign
and Security Policy - CFSP and cooperation in the field of justice and home affairs-DSS.
EU countries agree on the introduction of the CFSP as the second pillar of the European
Union, with the prospect that it grows into a common defense policy. The Treaty of
Maastricht certain basic guidelines and determinations through established permanent
cooperation between EU Member States in the field of CFSP and important and sensitive
issues is no unanimity on positions taken and decisions and taking joint actions especially
in defense and security purposes. In the EU Treaty pays great attention to foreign and
security policy, which is one of the pillars of the EU. Founding treaties of the European
Economic Community, the right to conduct foreign and security policy was kept in the
exclusive competence of the Member States. In such circumstances, the exercise of foreign
policy cooperation was provided on the basis of political consensus. Thus went political
cooperation in the sphere of foreign policy, having no legal basis and support in the
founding treaties. But, with the Single European Act-EEA since 1986, built a new part,
under title: Provisions for European cooperation in the field of foreign policy, in chl.30.
Member States of the European Union are obliged to strive for joint formation and
realization of European foreign policy, i.e undertakes to define and implement a European
foreign policy. To this end they undertake on any matter of foreign policy, which is a
common interest to be informed and consulted in order to ensure their mutual influence in
resolving issues through their joint impact of harmonization and approximation of their
views and taking joint measures.2
Legally relevant process on the common foreign and security policy is heading 5 of the
Treaty on European Union, which includes provisions that, in addition to external
governing and security policy, and that members of J. 1 to J. 11th
Article J. 1 formulates the basic obligations of the Union and its members in the process of
defining and achieving the common foreign and security policy, whose main objectives
are:
- Protection of common values, fundamental interests and independence of the Union;
- Strengthening the security of the Union and its members in all forms;
- Protecting and maintaining peace and strengthening international security in accordance
with the Charter of the United Nations-United Nations and the principles of the Final Act
of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe Helsinki and objectives of the
Paris Charter;
- Promotion of international cooperation;
- Development and strengthening of democracy and the rule of law and the principle of the
rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms.3
The means for achieving these goals are defined in Article J. 2 аnd J. 3 as two types of
joint cooperation activities and joint actions. Namely, with these members, the objectives
of foreign and security policy is left to the European Council and the Council. The
European Council defines the principles and basic guidelines for conducting the common
foreign and security policy, i.e it unanimously decides the issues will be the subject of joint
action and unanimous decision-making in relation to the objectives and the required
duration, resources, implementation procedure and conditions of common stock. Based on
the basic guidelines of the European Council, the Council shall adopt the necessary
decisions for the definition and implementation of the CFSP. European Council
unanimously adopts decisions on matters subject to joint activity, taking into account the
2
3

Art. 30 , point1 and point2 of the Single European Act (EEA)
Art. J 1, point 1 and point 2 of Treaty on European Union

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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

Union's unity and action. Given the opportunity for the eventual implementation of the
decisions relating to common foreign shares with a qualified majority. Legal commitment
of the Member States of the Union with decisions for the implementation of joint actions in
the process of formulation and implementation of individual national foreign policies4, in
order to prevent undermining the effectiveness and coherence of harmonized positions
with unexpected unilateral actions of individual members. Member States have the option
of unilaterally taking foreign policy decisions in emergencies, provided that compliance
with the general objectives of the common stock and informing partners about the nature of
the assumed act, as well as the opportunity to review the quality of appropriate joint action
in case drastic change of circumstances that have influenced its definition5 and the
possibility of adopting special solutions for certain Member States of the Union
encountered serious problems in the implementation process shared mandated activities6.
Council meeting may be convened at the request of a Member State or the Commission,
and in emergencies, the President of the Council may convene a session on its own
initiative or at the initiative of the Commission or a Member State, within 48 hours or in
the shorter term. Committee on Political Affairs, Political Affairs composed of directors
constantly monitor international activities in the field of CFSP, participate in defining
attitudes by giving opinions and suggestions to the Council, and the care and
implementation determined policy, respecting the powers of the president Commission7.
The EU policy in the field of common foreign and security policy is defined in: common
positions and solutions to common stock. In general position determines the relationship of
the EU to a particular question and the steps that you take the European Union and the
Member States to resolve by defining the general position of the Council, Member States
shall harmonize national policies with the general position. Very efficient tool to influence
European Union international relations and the politics of other countries, represent
solutions for common activities8. Decisions on joint activities oblige the Member States, as
for building custom views and activity.
From the foregoing, it appears that as well as within the process of European foreign policy
co-EPS, and within the process of European common foreign and security policy, the
subject of the institute (joint action) is not an entity, a whole (EU), but its constituent
Member States of the Union. The same applies in respect of the holders of (joint
positions)9. The Member States are obliged to inform and consult each other in relation to
the relevant foreign policy issues. Common position formulated in the meetings of the
European Council, which is responsible for deciding whether to accede to define common
positions10.
The State Party Council is responsible for implementing the common foreign and security
policy. The Treaty on European Union specified obligations arising from the common
foreign and security policy shall be binding on the Member States of the Union: mutually
informed and to inform the Council on any matter that is of common interest to foreign and
security policy to coordinate all activities in international organizations and at international
4

Art. J. 2 point 4 of Treaty on European Union
Art. J. 3 point 3 of Treaty on European Union
6
Art. J. 3 point 7 of Treaty on European Union
7
Art. J. 8 of Treaty on European Union
8
Art. J. 3 point 4 of Treaty on European Union
9
Art. J.2 of Treaty on European Union
10
European Council common foreign policy stances determines unanimously, with the exception of
procedural issues as cases involving art.J. 3 point 2 of the TEU.
5

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�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

conferences, so they are obliged to act in concert to protect the positions and interests of
the European Union, if there are changes in the foreign policy conditions or problems
related to the implementation of certain measures arising from EU joint actions and the
Member States should adopt measures derogating from the decisions of the EU Member
State is obliged to inform the Council that after analysis accepts adequate solution, all
member states are required to actively support the EU's foreign and security policy, to
refrain from any actions that contradict the interests of the Union or likely to weaken their
effectiveness as a unifying force in international relations11.
An important novelty introduced by the Treaty on European Union is the act of inclusion
security - security aspects of foreign policy, intending it to lead to the creation of a single
European defense policy, which over time could lead to a common European defense12.
Joint defense system with the Agreement does not regulate, but only logs as perspective.
Real structure, on which the Union could rely on a common defense policy, would be
WEU WEU, which until then existed only in documents without any real activities. In time
signing EU Treaty, WEU members (Member States of the European Communities:
Germany, France, UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Portugal and Luxembourg.
Other three countries: Greece, Denmark and Ireland members European Communities
aren’t members to the Western Union, which was a formal obstacle to the inclusion of the
Western European Union in the structures of the European Communities. Here is the
reason that in the Declaration on Western European Union adopted by the Treaty on
European Union, the nine member states of the European Communities and the Western
European Union, addressed only to those that are members of the European Communities
to join Western Union or to gain status monitors. Another problem represents Turkey,
Norway and Iceland, who were members of the Western European Union but not in the
European Communities. Exit was found in resending these three countries to the status of
associate members. Were performed and organizational changes in Western European
Union and thus began the transformation of the Western European Union in the defense
component of the European Union. However Agreement distinguishes between so-called
defense issues so called issues with simple, less important security implications. Latter as
painful in terms of individual defensive reliability of each of the Member States are the
basis for the formulation of common positions. First and after the entry into force of the
Maastricht Treaty, remain sphere of exclusive jurisdiction of each country. Incidentally,
joint actions produce implications for the field of defense and security are subject to
explanation and implementation of the Western European Union13. Treaty refers to the
necessary cooperation of the Western European Union and NATO14, i.e substantial
consistency European common foreign and security policy with the obligations arising
from the North Atlantic Treaty. Enabling WEU WEU in the structure of the European
11

Аrt. J. 1, J. 2, J. 3 and J. 5 of Treaty on European Union
Art. J.4 of Treaty on European Union
13
The WEU was established by the Brussels Treaty, signed on 17.03.1948 by the UK, France, Belgium,
Netherlands and Luxembourg, in order to remove the sense of insecurity Western states security plan before
the military expansion of the SSSR (Robertson A.H, Constitutional Developments in the Council of Europe,
1964 pp.111). Brussels Treaty in 1954 was modified and became the legal basis of the so-called Western
European Union, designed under its own kappa cover and the Federal Republic of Germany ( R.G.H.
“Western Union: political origins”, The World Today, no. 4/1949, pp.170-183; Robertson A. “The creation
of the Western European Union” ). Western Union remained of marginal importance to the organization in
1984 when the national parliaments of the Member States of the European Community adopted the draft
agreement for the revival of the Western European Union as a European defense forum.
14
NATO was formed as a defensive organization of a regional type of 04.04.1949 by the States Parties to the
Brussels Treaty, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Portugal and the United States (Beugel E. H.op.cit.pp.253
et.seq).
12

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Union, do not come to the termination of already close links with NATO. Treaty on
European Union, because the EU has not got its own defense- policy instruments, Western
Union has been declared an integral part of the development of the European Union. This
is an opportunity for the EU to submit a request to the WEU to prepare and implement
decisions and actions of the EU concerning security policy, i.e related defense. Council, in
accordance with the institutes of the Western European Union was authorized to determine
the necessary practical measures for implementation of the identified tasks15. WEU
remains an independent international organization, whose cooperation with the European
Union is governed by the Declaration on Western European Union, which is one articles of
the Treaty on European Union. According to the Declaration, the WEU will be developed
as the defense component of the European Union and as a means to strengthen the
European leverage Atlantic alliance16. purpose of creating optimal conditions for
cooperation and coordination of activities between the European Union and the Western
Union, the WEU headquarters from London was transferred to Brussels, where the
headquarters of the Commission, more remedial authorities and administration of the
European Union.
Article J. 5 of the Treaty on European Union establishes the normative basis of the
diplomatic representation of the Union as a whole vis-à-vis the outside world. Namely
responsible for representing the Union in foreign policy relations in general is the chairman
of the Union. The general principle applies to the representation of the Union in
international organizations and international conferences. Only exception to this are the
international conferences which all states. In such situations, the present member states
have an obligation to inform the absent member states. The latter principle applies in
relation to the work of the United Nations Security Council. The permanent members are
obligated to provide defense of the positions and interests of the Union, without prejudice
relative to its responsibility under the Charter of the United Nations. Cooperation of the
diplomatic and consular missions of the Member States of the Union with the missions of
the Commission of the European Communities as well as the cooperation of the diplomatic
missions of the individual Member States, in general and international conferences was
legally sanctioned and within the process of European foreign policy cooperation EPS, and
the Treaty on European Union introduced an additional opportunity for the establishment
of joint missions that share common facilities.
The institutional structure of the European common foreign and security policy is
completely identical to that established in the framework of the European foreign policy
cooperation. CFSP institutional hierarchy has four levels. At its peak the European
Council, which provides directives and is the highest level of decision-making in case of
insurmountable differences in the opinions of the lower bodies, he initiated the joint
strategy and the reform proposals and is acting as spokesperson common positions in
relation to the outer world and defines the principles and formulate general guidelines.
Council decisions on defining and implementing the common foreign and security policy
and ensures consistency in the Union's activities. Political Committee-PBPK is the official
organ of the servicing of the European Common Foreign and Security Policy, COREPER
is a regular authority for the preparation of the Council's work. As regards the other bodies,
the Commission of the European Communities shall have the right initiatives for CFSP and
15

Art. J. 4 point 2of Treaty of European Union
Point.2 of Declaration on Western European Union, adopted by the ten member states of the European
Union and the Western European Union.
16

8

�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

retains the old status, and the European Parliament has the authority to hold annual debates
about the progress in the process of European foreign and security policy, making
recommendations European Council and the responsibility for answering questions asked
by the European Council, as well as reports already agreed CFSP positions and has the
ability to influence through rights to give consent for all important agreements European
Union with third countries.
Treaty of Amsterdam for Reform of the European Union - Modification of the
CFSPEstablished By the Maastricht Treaty
Amsterdam Treaty to reform the European Union contains a unique title 5 composed of
members of J. 1 to J. 18 whose totality completely replaces title 5 of the Maastricht Treaty.
Most of the members contained in Maastricht 2 i.e Amsterdam Treaty are identical with
those included in Maastricht 1 i.e Maastricht treaty. So changes that brings the Amsterdam
Treaty in the field of CFSP process is neither broad in scope, nor deep its radicalism.
Totality changes you can enter the Amsterdam Treaty can be divided into several groups: Despite the common positions and joint action is introduced and institute a common
strategy of the Member States of the Union. Common strategies sets Council European
Council proposal, in areas in which the Member States have very important common
interests. Common strategies to define their own objectives, duration and the means must
be made available by the Union and its members;
- In the sphere of application of the common shares, the agreement provides a legal
obligation for Member States to address the Council and to inform about the difficulties
which come in the process of their implementation and the Council an obligation to
consider the problems and seek appropriate solutions will not be detrimental to the
achievement of the objectives of the common shares, i.e their performance;
- For the first time in the sphere of foreign policy, announced an opportunity for majority
decision-making in the Council, through abstention from voting to appropriate state
officials is not an obstacle to conquer foreign policy decisions. If it comes to refraining
from voting, it must be done with the presentation of a formal declaration calling for treaty
article which allows such an opportunity. Well, so the decision does not oblige restrained
Member State, but it must be accepted that despite the fact that no decision was taken
unanimously, however obliges the Union as a whole, i.e obliges States to act in accordance
with the principle of mutual solidarity, not to interfere with the implementation of the
decision by the Union. But if the number of abstention votes of more than one-third of the
vote, the decision cannot be made. Determined that the qualified majority voting is
possible in the following situations: adopting joint actions, common positions or other
decisions based on a common strategy; adoption decisions for the implementation of joint
actions or common positions, with the exception of decisions that open military or defense
implications; adoption decisions regarding procedural matters by a majority vote.
- Treaty of Amsterdam provides novelty enhanced cooperation between the WEU which
gives more weight as an integral part of the development of the Union and the European
Union, which remains a separate organization. Enhanced co-operation should be made in
support of the Western European Union addressed to the European Union in the framing of
the defense aspects of CFSP and conversely, the European Union will accordingly
encourage the establishment of closer institutional relations with the WEU with ambitions
to integrate the WEU into the European Union, if the European Council decided in this
direction. Innovations is an opportunity for "ad hoc" joint participation of all member
states, regardless of the fact whether they are both members of the Western European
Union or not, in certain military actions with limited effect. Namely things interventions in

9

�International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo

Western European Union called tasks Petersburg, although the Amsterdam Treaty does not
use this term but by name lists: humanitarian and rescue actions, peacekeeping operations
imposing peace in crisis situations and actions establish peace.
- A special group of novelties include the establishment of new bodies process the common
foreign and security policy of the European Union. It works for EU High Representative
responsible for issues of foreign and security policy with the rank of Secretary General of
the Council of the EU Council authorized to assist the Union in matters of foreign and
security policy, especially in the process of formulating preparation and implementation of
policy decisions and, where appropriate, to act on behalf of the Council at the request of
the Chairman of the Union through conducting political dialogue with the treat by a
separate analytical unit for planning and forecast international situation.
Conclusion
The analysis of the normative model of the European common foreign and security policy
established by the Maastricht Treaty, as amended by the Amsterdam and accompanying
agreements, leads to the conclusion that it was designed in an important political moment,
with huge ambitions for radical step forward in the field of political integration of Western
Europe, when overwhelmed feeling that something drastic must be done in order to be
overcome current stage of European foreign policy cooperation. In the middle of the
reform debates that came to the fore in the Maastricht Treaty and the Treaty of Amsterdam,
were under the comprehensive authority of the CFSP, more efficient decision-making
structures and greater transparency of the external representation of the EU Member States.
The European Union is developing a unique institution in the world which covers an entire
range of possibilities for civilian and military interventions in the event of crises. With that
she is on the road to more operational foreign and security policy, which would be better
projected external stability and contribute to international security. Common foreign and
security policy has reached a significant level of differentiation and maturity. Well, if there
is a general will of the participating governments and if we keep up the momentum ENBP,
then Member States in a position targeted, timely and operationally to respond to
international challenges.

References
Bendevski, T. (2001). “The Law of European Union”.
Peterson, J., &amp;Shackleton, M. (2006). “The Institutions of the European Union”
Vajdenfeld, W., &amp; Vesels, W. (2002). “Europe from A to Z “.
Weatherill, S. (1995). “Law and Integration in the European Union”.
Wilkinson, P. (2010). “International Relations: A Brief Insight”.
Web pages
http://www.eurotreaties.com/maastrichtext.html

10

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                    <text>Journal of Natural Sciences and Engineering, Vol. 2, (2020)
DOI number: 10.14706/JONSAE2020215

Machine Learning in Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnosis

Naida Nalo1, Jasmin Kevrić1
1

International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
naida.nalo@stu.ibu.edu.ba
jasmin.kevric@ibu.edu.ba

Abstract— This paper represents an overview of Machine Learning techniques used in Autism
Spectrum Disorder - ASD diagnosis. ASD is detected based on behavioral screening which is time
consuming and can only be taken by a medical professional. The idea is to find a smaller number of
features that are still able to equally well provide satisfying results and not lose the accuracy, sensitivity
nor specificity. Some of the algorithms mostly used in recent studies were Artificial Neural Network ANN and Alternating Decision Trees - ADTrees. The researches usually use WEKA software package
for applying the algorithm and obtaining results.
Keywords—Machine Learning, Autism Spectrum Disorder, diagnosis, features, ANN, ADTree, WEKA.

1. Introduction

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is defined as a developmental disorder that reflects in difficulty to
communicate and interact with people, to have minimal interests and to generate pattern like behaviors. There
are three separate conditions that are combined into the Autism Spectrum Disorder and those are: Autistic
disorder, Asperger’s syndrome and Pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS).
Even though ASD can be a lifelong disorder, an early diagnosis and proper treatment can help improve
communications skills and overall ability to function. However, the diagnosis sometimes takes a lot of time,
which prolongs the appropriate treatment [1].

Two widely used clinical diagnosis tools for diagnosing autism are The Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised
(ADI-R) [2] and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) [3]. ADI-R consists of ninety-three
questions that are to be answered by a clinician. This process can take up to two and a half hours to conduct.
The ADOS contains four modules, that can be used to test children and adults, according to behavioral and
language levels of the person to be tested. This tool uses an algorithm that results with a diagnosis based on
the scores of responses. Each module has its own scores [4]. It has become of great importance to find a faster
but reliable method of diagnosing ASD, since the earliest treatment gives a greater chance for improvement.

�This paper gives insight on the studies conducted in the past on the subject of Machine Learning in ASD
diagnosis. A brief review on differences between two versions of Diagnostics and Statistical Manual of
Mental Disorders (DSM-IV [5] and DSM-5 [6]) is made.

2. Literature review

The ADI-R is one of two most widely used instruments for behavioral diagnosis of ASD [7]. It is structured
in a form of an exam containing ninety-three questions and can be applied to individuals from the age of
eighteen months and above. The questions are answered by a trained professional but still take up to two and
a half hours to finish. And additionally, the gap between the initial screening and the resulting diagnosis can
be around thirteen months, depending on the socioeconomic status of the family [8]. This introduces an
additional delay in the early treatment crucial for proper development of the person, especially children. In
[9], it was proposed to create an exam that can be conducted in minutes, rather than hours and receive
satisfying results.

Machine learning was used to select the right amount of questions, out of initial ninety-three, that would be
able to classify the person in either autism or non-spectrum class. In total, fifteen algorithms were tested, and
the one that performed the best with the given data was found to be the Alternating Decision Tree (ADTree).
This classification algorithm managed to successfully classify all individuals diagnosed with ASD using only
eight questions, that were previously tested with a complete set of ninety-three questions of ADI-R and
misclassified only one.

However, this research was proved to be unreliable by [10]. This paper brought to attention the importance of
understanding both the computational and clinical area before giving any conclusions. The research conducted
in [9], was limited by the imbalance of data as well as excluding a big part of it due to missing values. This
resulted in only a two-class diagnosis, when originally it should have been three. The middle class, which is
the most difficult to identify, that was removed was the ASD Spectrum, leaving only the ASD and Nonspectrum cases. A recommendation from [10] is to use the Unweighted Average Recall – UAR, which is a
measure of performance that works better for such unbalanced data and that was used in this paper, when they
tried to replicate the work done in [9]. Their results were algorithm dependent and if another algorithm was to
be applied to the same data, the number of features would vary.

Another important issue that was discussed in [4] were the differences between results of DSM-IV and the
new DSM-5. From [4] we learn that although both of the screening methods abovementioned have shown
good sensitivity, specificity and high reliability in experiments, the majority of those studies were based on
the DSM-IV rather than the new criteria for diagnosing ASD, the DSM-5. Several studies that were mentioned
in [4] had conflicting results when using the two different versions of the manual. This introduces the need to
reevaluate the current tools for diagnosis, and to adjust them to the new criteria of diagnosing ASD.

�Combining all the research and experiments from the past, and critically analyzing the results, suggestions and
advices for the future projects are provided in [11]. The author highlights that none of the screening tools
currently in use, have incorporated the machine learning algorithm for diagnosing ASD from the recent
studies. Along with the problem of unbalanced data, the overlap of ASD, ADHD and Asperger Syndrome as
well as different forms of ASD, represents another obstacle in diagnosing, mentioned in [11]. Most studies
simplified the classification process by removing these classes and leaving just the ‘Severe Autism’ and ‘Nonspectrum’ as a possible outcome. This of course leads to unreliable classifiers with questionable sensitivity,
specificity and accuracy.

3. Problem formulation

For the purpose of this project, in total three datasets have been downloaded from UCI Machine Learning
Repository [12]. They deal with data related to ASD screening of three different sets of population: toddlers,
adolescents and adults. The data was collected through an application in a form of a quiz [13]. The data sets
consist of twenty questions, out of which ten are behavioral features, while the other ten are individual
characteristics. The application offers four modules representing the age category for individuals from the age:
12-36 months, 4-11 years, 12-16 years and 17 years and older. Ten questions, that differed depending on the
age of the individual, from the application are provided in Table 1, in Appendix 1. Description of the data set
is provided in Table 2.

Table 2. Data set characteristics
ASD Screening Data
MODULE

CHILDREN

ADOLESCENTS

ADULTS

Number of instances

292

104

704

Number of attributes

21

Missing values

Yes

The first module is based on current parent-assisted ASD screening tool, the Quantitative Checklist for Autism
Toddlers (Q-CHAT), while the remaining three are based on appropriate versions of Autism Spectrum
Quotient (AQ), which are considered to be good candidates of diagnosing and were somewhat referred to as
a ‘red flag’. These screening tools were discussed in [4], where it has been noted that the ten questions can
only be used for acknowledging if additional clinical testing is required and is not a definite diagnosis. An
analysis that studied these tools is [14]. Next step of this paper will be to investigate the dataset and determine
the best way to make the most of it.

�4. Machine learning methods

Seven algorithms that were chosen for the process of attribute selection with their brief description are
provided in this chapter. Bayes Net’s function is to learn the Bayesian networks. This algorithm assumes
nominal attributes and no missing values. Search process is done using K2 or TAN algorithm. More
sophisticated search methods, used for search, are built on genetic algorithm, hill-climbing, simulated
annealing, etc. Search speed can additionally be enhanced by ADTrees [15].

Simple Logistic is an algorithm that builds regression models and fits them with use of LogitBoost and simple
regression functions as base learners. Number of iterations are calculated using cross-validation, supporting
attribute selection [15].
Decision Stump’s function is to build one-level decision trees for sets with a categorical or numeric value.
Missing values in this algorithm are dealt with by seeing them as a separate value and creating a third branch
from the stump [15].

J48 is an algorithm that creates a pruned or unpruned C4.5 decision tree. C4.5 This algorithm produces a
classifier in a form of a decision tree, which can be either a leaf or a decision node. A leaf indicates a class, a
decision node specifies a test with one branch and a subtree for every possible outcome of the test [16].

Logistic Model Tree, or LMT, combines two most popular methods of classification: linear logistic regression
and tree induction. This algorithm results in not only classification but also in explicit probability estimates of
the class. Another advantage of LMT is that it results in a single tree which makes it easier to interpret [17].

Random Forest is an algorithm that combines tree predictors. Each tree is dependent on values of a random
vector, which is sampled independently and with same distribution for all trees of the forest. Generalization
error of this algorithm depends on strength of individual trees of thee forest and their correlation. As the
number of trees grows, the generalizatioon error converges to the limit [18].

REPTree algorithm represents a fast decision tree learner. This algorithm uses information regarding gain or
variance and prunes it with reduced-error pruning to build a ecision or regression tree. Values for numeric
attributes are only sorted once, which optimized its speed [15].

5. Results

Classification procedure of this research paper was split in two main parts. First part was applying a 10-fold
cross-validation to all attributes and all three datasets. Cross-validation of n-folds splits the original dataset
into n parts where n-1 parts are used as a train test, while the nth part is used as a test set [19]. Another method
used in this part was applying a percentage split of three different values: 50%, 70% and 90%. Percentage split
separates the original dataset into train and test according to the chosen percentage.

�Both methods were tested using sixteen algorithms, giving in total 64 results for each dataset. The second
part of classification involved attribute selection. Algorithms chosen for this part resulted from the first part,
since only those that gave 100% accuracy for all three datasets were again used in attribute selection part. A
more detailed 10-fold cross-validation results and algorithm performance are presented in Table 3, and the
results of percentage-split and algorithm performance is shown in Table 4.

Table 3. 10-fold cross-validation accuracy results
Method

Cross-validation 10

Algorithm

Dataset

Bayes

Child

Adolescent

Adult

BayesNet

100%

100%

100%

NaiveBayes

98.9726%

98.0769%

97.017%

MultinomialText

51.7123%

60.5769%

73.1534%

BayesUpdateable

98.9726%

98.0769%

97.017%

Logistic

95.2055%

95.1923%

97.017%

MultilayerPerceptron

99,6575%

89.4231%

100%

SimpleLogistic

100%

100%

100%

SMO

100%

89.4231%

100%

88.3562%

90.3846%

94.8864%

DecisionStump

100%

100%

100%

HoeffdingTree

100%

99.0385%

99.858%

J48

100%

100%

100%

LMT

100%

100%

100%

RandomForest

100%

100%

100%

RandomTree

93.1507%

80.7692%

96.1648%

REPTree

100%

100%

100%

Functions

Lazy
IBk
Trees

�Table 4. Percentage split accuracy
Method

Percentage Split (50%-50%, 70%-30%, 90%-10%)

Algorithm

Dataset

Bayes

Child

Adolescent

BayesNet

100%

100%

100%

NaiveBayes

98.6%

96.5%

96.5%

MultinomialText

51.36
%

55.68
%

41.37
%

BayesUpdateable

98.6%

96.5%

96.5%

Logistic

93.1%

89.7%

93.1%

MultilayerPerceptr
on

97.2%

97.7%

100%

SimpleLogistic

100%

100%

SMO

96.5%

100%
98.07
%
61.53
%
98.07
%

100%
100%

Adult
100
%
100
%

54.83
%

50%

100%

100
%

100%
98.01
%
74.14
%
98.01
%

100%

100%

98.5%

97%

74.88
%
98.57
%

97.14
%

80%

Functions
84.61
%
94.23
%

87.09
%
93.54
%

90%

96.59
%

94.78
%

95.71
%

80%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100
%

100%

100%

100%

95.4%

100%

92.3%

93.54
%

80%

100%

100%

100%

89.04
%

89.7%

86.2%

88.46
%

90.32
%

100
%

95.73
%

94.31
%

94.28
%

DecisionStump

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

HoeffdingTree

98.6%

100%

100%

98.07
%

100%

100%

100%

100%

J48

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

LMT

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

RandomForest

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

RandomTree

93.8%

94.3%

82.7%

67.3%

74.19
%

100%

90.99
%

100%

REPTree

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Lazy
IBk
Trees
100
%
100
%
100
%
100
%
100
%
100
%
100
%

Algorithms used for the second part of classifying process of this research paper were chosen according to the
percentage of accuracy of Table 3. Out of four Bayes algorithms, only BayesNet gave 100%, SimpleLogistic
is the only one out of four Function algorithms that proved the best, and lastly, Tree algorithms shown good
results with DecisionStump, J48, LMT, RandomForest and REPTree performing in 100% accuracy for all
three datasets. These seven algorithms were used in attribute selection part of classification. All three datasets
originally had 21 attributes, and the previous two methods mentioned above included all attributes in the
process. Attribute selection method [20] is a process of selecting the most relevant attributes and by doing so,
reducing the processing time.

�In total, five attribute evaluators have been used in attribute selection process. Those were:
ClassifierAttributeEval,

CorrelationAttributeEval,

ReliefAttributeEval,

CfsSubsetEval

and

WrapperSubsetEval. In a combination of these evaluators, three search methods were used: BestFirst,
GreedyStepwise and Ranker [15]. ClassifierAttributeEval evaluates the worth of an attribute with use of a
user-specified classifier [21]. CorrelationAttributeEval evaluates the worth of an attribute by measuring the
correlation between the attribute and the class [21]. ReliefFAttributeEval sampling of instances happens
randomly, and the neighboring instances of the same or different class is checked on [15]. CfsSubsetEval
evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each attribute
along with the degree of redundancy between them. Missing values can be seen as a separate value or, with
proportion to their frequency, its counts can be distributed among other values [15]. WrapperSubsetEval
evaluates attribute sets by using a learning scheme. Cross-validation estimates the accuracy of the learning
scheme for a set of attributes [15] .

ClassifierAttributeEval, CorrelationAttEval and ReliefAttributeEval required Ranker as a search method. In
all three datasets, number of attributes chosen for the Ranker was five. CfsSubsetEval and WrapperSubsetEval
work using either BestFirst or GreedySetpwise search method. Combining the evaluators with search methods,
we obtained 56 results for each dataset. After the attribute selection was performed on the complete set of 21
attributes, all evaluators resulted with 100% accuracy, regardless of the algorithm used. The attributes of all
three datasets are presented in Table 5.

Table 5. Attributes by number with description
Attribute

Description

1 - 10

Score of 10 questions

11

Age (number)

12

Gender (male or female)

13

Ethnicity (list provided)

14

Born with jaundice

15

Autism in family

16

Country of residence

17

Used app before

18

Result of app (automated calculation)

19

Age description (toddler, child, adolescent, adult)

20

Relation (who is completing the test)

21

Class ASD/NoASD

Attribute that was present in all three datasets and that showed extremely high correlation was the 18th
attribute. This attribute represents the score of ten questions of the application [13]. Therefore, a new approach
was used. The 18th attribute was removed completely, and the process of selection was repeated for all three
datasets. Results of selection are shown in Table 6, 7 and 8, in Appendix 2. Results of accuracy are shown in
Table 9, 10 and 11, in Appendix 3.

�The lowest performance for child, adolescent and adult dataset was achieved by DecisionStump, resulting in
78.082%, 70.192% and 82.822% respectively, as can be observed from the results. The lowest number of
attributes selected is 1, and the highest is 14. However, the best results required less than that. The algorithms
that showed best performance for child dataset were SimpleLogistic and LMT. These algorithms, with applied
CfsSubsetEvaluator, resulted in accuracy of 98.973%, and used 10 attributes. BayesNet showed best results,
with applied ClassifierAttributeEvaluator, it performed in 90.385% accuracy for adolescent dataset and used
only 5 attributes. Simple Logistic successfully classified the adult dataset, with impressive accuracy of
99.432% and used 11 attributes in the process.

6. Conclusion

The conclusion is split into two parts, one regarding actions taken to review already written papers and discuss
their results, and second which deals with actions taken to derive our own conclusion through processing
datasets. This research paper involved three datasets: child, adolescent and adult, with each having 21
attributes. Original datasets were processed using two methods for splitting the dataset into train and test and
used sixteen algorithms for both. The obtained results from the first test helped choose algorithms for the
second part of testing which involved attribute selection. According to the results, seven algorithms stood out.
Attribute selection was performed on all three datasets using seven evaluators. All results had 100% accuracy,
despite using different number of attributes. This leaded to another approach which included removing the
18th attribute and reapplying the selection process. Number of attributes for best performances were dependent
on the dataset and therefore are different. One should keep in mind that classification process using five
attributes can only be used as an indicator of whether further medical testing should be conducted.

The main lesson learned, reading papers written so far on this topic, is that integrating ML in ASD diagnosis
and its screening tools is a much harder process than it seems. Finding the appropriate number of features and
managing to reduce the time of diagnosis depends on many parameters. Many experiments, in an attempt to
reduce the time required for the diagnosis process, have discarded some important issues for the sake of
simplicity. Their initially admiring results could not be taken for granted, due to misbalanced data and
questionable reliability. The algorithm should not be dependent on data. The issue of distinguishing between
ASD and PDD related disorders (ADHD, Asperger Syndrome) represents a big obstacle for proper diagnosis
of ASD. The algorithm should be provided with a similar number of all possible outcomes in order to learn to
better distinguish between categories. The need to reevaluate the current diagnosis tools and adjust them to fit
the new criteria from DSM-5 arises.

�APPENDIX 1
Table 1. Questions from the ASDQuiz application [13]
13-36 months TODDLER

4-11 years – CHILD

12-16 years –
ADOLESCENT

17 &amp; older –
ADULT

1.

Does your child look
at you when you call
his/her name?

He/she often notices
small sounds when
other do not?

He/she notices patterns
in things all the time?

I often notice small
sounds when others
do not?

2.

How easy is it for
you to get eye
contact with your
child?

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

Does your child
point to indicate that
he/she wants
something (e.g. toy
out of reach)?
Does your child
point to share
interest with you?
(e.g. pointing at an
interesting sight)
Does your child
pretend? (e.g. care
for dolls, talk on a
toy phone)
Does your child
follow where you are
looking?
If you or someone
else in the family is
visibly upset, does
your child show
signs of wanting to
comfort you/them?
(e.g. gives a hug)

He/she usually
concentrates more on
the whole picture
rather than the small
details?
In a social group,
he/she can easily
keep track of several
different people’s
conversation?
He/she finds it easy
to go back and forth
between different
activities?

He/she usually
concentrates more on
the whole picture
rather than the small
details?
In a social group,
he/she can easily keep
track of several
different people’s
conversation?
If there is an
interruption, he/she can
switch back to what
he/she was doing very
quickly?

I usually concentrate
more on the whole
picture, rather than
the small details?
I find it easy to do
more than one thing
at once?
If there is an
interruption, I can
switch back to what
I was doing easily?

He/she doesn’t know
how to keep a
conversation going
with his/her peers?

He/she frequently finds
that he/she doesn’t
know how to keep a
conversation going?

I find it easy to read
between the lines
when someone is
talking to me?

He/she is good at
social chit-chat?

He/she is good at
social chit-chat?

I know how to tell if
someone listening to
me is getting bored?

When he/she reads a
story, he/she finds it
hard to work out the
character’s intentions
or feelings?

When he/she was
younger, he/she used
to enjoy playing games
involving pretending
with other children?

When I’m reading
the story, I find it
difficult to work out
the character’s
intentions?

Would you describe
your child’s first
words as: typical,
unusual, the child
doesn’t speak?

When he/she was on
preschool, he/she
used to enjoy playing
games involving
pretending with other
children?

She/he finds it difficult
to imagine what it
would be like to be
someone else?

I like to collect
information about
categories of things
(e.g. types of car,
types of bird, types
of train, types of
plants, etc.)

9.

Does your child use
simple gestures (e.g.
waves goodbye)?

He/she finds it
difficult to work out
what someone is
thinking or feeling
just by looking at
their face?

He/she finds social
situations easy?

I find it easy to work
out what someone is
thinking just by
looking at their face

10.

Does your child stare
at nothing with no
apparent purpose?

He/she finds it hard
to make new friends?

He/she finds it hard to
make new friends?

I find it difficult to
work out people’s
intentions?

8.

�APPENDIX 2
Table 6. Attribute selection results - child dataset
Algorithm
s vs.
selected
attributes
BayesNet
SimpleLo
gistic
DecisionS
tump
J48

ClassifierAttrib
uteEval

CorrelationAttrib
uteEval

4,9,8,10,1

4,9,10,8,6

ReliefAttribu
teEval

4,1,10,8,9

CfsSubset
Eval (BF
&amp;
Greedy)

1-10

LMT
RandomF
orest
REPTree

WrapperSubs
etEval (BF

Wrappe
r,
Greedy

1-10,17
3,4,6,7,10,12,
16

4,10
4,6,10,1
2,16

4

4

1,3,4,5,7,8,10
4,10
,14
4,6,10,12,16
15,7,8,9,10,15,
4,10
17
1,4,8,10
4,10

Table 7. Attribute selection results - adolescent dataset
Algorithm
s vs.
selected
attributes

ClassifierAttrib
uteEval

CorrelationAttrib
uteEval

ReliefAttribu
teEval

CfsSubset
Eval (BF
&amp; Greedy)

BayesNet
SimpleLo
gistic
DecisionS
tump
J48
LMT
RandomF
orest
REPTree

5,4,3,10,6

WrapperSubs
etEval (BF

Greedy

1,2,3,4,5,7,10
,12

1,3,4,5,1
0,12

3,4,5,10,14

5,4,10,3,6

5,4,10,3,6

5,3,10,4,8

3,4,5,6,7,8,
10,17

5
2,5,9,14
3,4,5,10,14

5,4,3,10,6

15,7,8,10,17

5,4,10,3,6

2,3,5,8

4,5,7,10

Table 8 Attribute selection results - adult dataset
Algorithm
s vs.
selected
attributes
BayesNet
SimpleLog
istic
DecisionSt
ump
J48
LMT
RandomFo
rest
REPTree

ClassifierAttribu
teEval

CorrelationAttrib
uteEval

ReliefAttribut
eEval

CfsSubset
Eval (BF
&amp;
Greedy)

9,6,16,19,7

WrapperSubs
etEval (BF

Greed
y

1-10,15,16
1,3,5,6,9,12,1
1,3,5,
5
6,9
9

9,6,8,7,19

9,6,5,4,3

5,9,6,4,7

1-10,16

1-5,710,16,15
1,3,5,6,9,12,1
5

9
1,5,9
1,3,5,
6,9

1-10,12,15,18,19
1,2,3,5,6,7,9,15

�APPENDIX 3
Table 9. Attribute selection accuracy - child dataset
Attribute
evaluator
ClassifierAttribu
teEval
CorrelationAttE
val
ReliefAttributeE
val
CfsSubsetEval
WrapperSubsetE
val (BF)
WrapperSubsetE
val (Greedy)

Bayes
Net
86.644
%
84.932
%
85.616
%
95.206
%
91.438
%
82.192
%

SimpleLog
istic

DecisionSt
ump

J48

LMT

78.082%

85.95
9%
84.93
2%
83.90
4%
91.43
8%
85.27
4%
82.19
2%

85.95
9%
84.58
9%
87.32
9%
98.97
3%
95.89
0%
83.90
4%

86.301%
84.589%
88.014%
98.973%
95.890%
82.192%

RandomF
orest
85.274%
81.849%
85.274%
93.151%
89.384%
84.247%

REPT
ree
85.616
%
85.959
%
83.219
%
83.562
%
84.589
%
83.562
%

Table 10. Attribute selection accuracy - adolescent dataset
Attribute
evaluator
ClassifierAttribu
teEval
CorrelationAttE
val
ReliefAttributeE
val

Bayes
Net

CfsSubsetEval

87.5%

WrapperSubsetE
val (BF)
WrapperSubsetE
val (Greedy)

88.462
%
77.885
%

90.385
%
89.423
%
82.692
%

SimpleLog
istic

DecisionSt
ump

89.423%
70.192%

J48

80.76
9%

81.731%
89.423%
86.539%
68.269%
78.846%

84.61
5%
72.11
5%
71.15
4%

LMT
89.42
3%
81.73
1%
88.46
2%
85.57
7%
78.84
6%

RandomF
orest

REPT
ree

86.539%
75%
85.577%
83.654%
86.539%

78.846%

76.923
%
68.269
%
72.115
%
71.154
%

Table 11. Attribute selection accuracy - adult dataset
Attribute
evaluator
ClassifierAttribu
teEval
CorrelationAttE
val
ReliefAttributeE
val
CfsSubsetEval
WrapperSubsetE
val (BF)
WrapperSubsetE
val (Greedy)

Bayes
Net
90.341
%
91.051
%
90.767
%
96.307
%
95.313
%
92.046
%

SimpleLog
istic

DecisionSt
ump

89.347%
90.909%
84.517%
90.625%
99.432%
95.881%
82.822%
93.04%

J48

LMT

88.21
%

89.35
7%
90.90
9%
90.62
5%
99.00
6%
95.02
8%
93.89
2%

89.06
3%
92.04
6%
89.34
7%
89.06
3%

RandomF
orest

REPT
ree

89.347%

87.5%

91.761%
90.057%
91.193%
94.46%
91.761%

90.199
%
89.205
%
86.364
%
89.063
%
89.921
%

�7. References

[1]

National Institute of Mental Health, Available at: https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/topics/autism-

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UCI Machine Learning Repository, Available at: https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/index.php

[13]

Thabtah, F. (2017). ASDTests. A mobile app for ASD screening. www.asdtests.com

[14]

C.Allison, B. Auyeung, S. Baron-Cohen, 2012, Toward Brief “Red Flags” for Autism Screening:

The Short Autism Spectrum Quotient and the Short Quantitative Checklist in 1000 Cases and 3000 Controls,
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University

of

Waikato,

Logistic

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Model

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L.

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at:

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                <text>K-means and hierarchical clustering algorithms are employed to cluster genes according to the gene expression to determine the harming level of the genes in brain cancer. The gene expression data with a control group from The Cancer Genome Atlas database were used. The optimal cluster number for each clustering technique was obtained using the elbow method and dendrogram for K-means and hierarchical clustering methods respectively. We identified the ideal number of clusters as three and further classified them into seven groups. We observed that the second cluster contains over half the genes in healthy people and the cluster distribution of a healthy patient and a patient who died six months after being diagnosed with brain cancer is similar. Further analysis indicated that of all the time spent by patients after&#13;
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                    <text>Macroeconomic Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Albanian
Banking System
UrmatRyskulov
Epoka University
Albania
uryskulov@epoka.edu.al
RiadaBerhani
Epoka University
Albania
riadaberhani@gmail.com
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the impact of macroeconomic factors in the amount
of nonperforming loans in Albanian banking sectors by using multi regression analysis model
from 2003 to 2012. This paper studies the relationship between the amount of non-performing
loans and six important macroeconomic factors which are: Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
growth rate, inflation rate, money supply (M2) annual growth rate, interest rate,
unemployment rate and exchange rate. The multi regression analysis suggests that all
variables have a negative impact in the non-performing loan level except inflation and
exchanges rates. Moreover the time forecasting analysis predicts an increase in NPL level in
Albanian Banking System.
Keywords: Albania, Banking System, Macroeconomics, NPL, Credit risk.

64

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                <text>The aim of this paper is to study the impact of macroeconomic factors in the amount of nonperforming loans in Albanian banking sectors by using multi regression analysis model from 2003 to 2012. This paper studies the relationship between the amount of non-performing loans and six important macroeconomic factors which are: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, inflation rate, money supply (M2) annual growth rate, interest rate, unemployment rate and exchange rate. The multi regression analysis suggests that all variables have a negative impact in the non-performing loan level except inflation and exchanges rates. Moreover the time forecasting analysis predicts an increase in NPL level in Albanian Banking System.    Keywords: Albania, Banking System, Macroeconomics, NPL, Credit risk.</text>
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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

ERGENEKON, S. (1996), Tasarruf Eğilimini Etkileyen Sosyolojik Faktörler, PhD Thesis,
Istanbul University Institute of Social Sciences , İstanbul
İBNİ MACE, (1986), Taharet, Kütübü Sitte, Akçağ Yayınları, İstanbul
ŞAMİL İSLAM ANSİKLOPEDİSİ, (1998), “İsraf”, Şamil Yayınları, İstanbul
Meaning of The QURAN, http://www.kuranikerim.com/english/m_indexe.htm
YAZIR, E.H.( 1992), Hak Dini Kur’an Dini, Zehraveyn Yayınları, İstanbul
TİRMİZİ, (1986), Kıyame, Kütübü Sitte, Akçağ Yayınları, İstanbul

Macroeconomic determinants of Sustainable Development
in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Emil Knezović, Uğur Ergun
International Burch University, Faculty of Management,
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E-mail: kinez88@hotmail.com
Abstract
The origin of term sustainable development comes from forestry and it means the extent of
cutting and putting the new trees on the planet. Synonymous for it is sustainability and it
refers to ability to endure as much longer as it is possible. This paper shows the degree of
correlation between sustainable development in Bosnia and Herzegovina and five
macroeconomic determinants: unemployment, export, import, average salaries and CPI as a
measure for inflation. The paper provides information about importance of economy in this
process and it explains all variables that are used. It is based on the period of five consecutive
years (2007-2011). Research for all of five variables was conducted on monthly basis for this
period, so in total it provides 58 data (January and February of 2007 are excluded) for each
variable. Next thing that this paper shows is the current position of the country in terms of its
development. The paper represents a combination of basic research (provides a lot of useful
information about the topic) and quantitative research (shows numerical results that are
gotten by the analysis of the problem). Unemployment, as one of the biggest and growing
problems in the country, is dependent variable and paper tries to prove relationships among
this variable and the others. Results in the paper are obtained through descriptive analysis.
The paper provides data about causes for high unemployment in our country and it shows
how much impact each variables mentioned above have or does it have at all. Finally, paper
shows on what country should put more emphasize in order to improve its current position
and to be able to compete with more developed countries.

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Keywords: sustainable development, unemployment, export, import, salary, inflation, CPI,
economy, GDP
1. INTRODUCTION
Actions done should not affect people that are inhabited there. Sustainable development
represents holding the balance among consumption, savings and regeneration of all our
resources. Sustainable development is a process of change and it has to start from each
individual and it continues by transmitting it to each area of our lives. One quotation
describes, in the best way, change that sustainable development influences. It says: “Insanity
is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different result”.36 As starting point of
process, known as sustainable development, it refers to year 1970, when World leading
countries made an agreement to allocate 0.7% of their total gross national income in order to
help those countries which are struggling. In 1992 at conference in Rio de Janeiro sustainable
development became a leading term in field of politics about environment. Sustainable
development implies four ways of consolidation (use of resources, investments, technical
development and institutional changes). During the process the understanding of sustainable
development has been spread to two fields more: economic and social. All three are making
so called “magic triangle” of sustainable development. Today, UN represents the leading
international organization that deals with it. It was founded in 1945, right after the Second
World War in order to harmonize the situation and to make “relationships” among countries.
It represents an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation
in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human
rights, and achievement of world peace.37 Today, this organization is consisted of 193
countries members.
This paper defines basic terms related with sustainable development, explains data used in the
research and provides the results on five consecutive years. The aim of the paper is to
examine and analyze macroeconomic determinants of sustainable development in Bosnia and
Herzegovina.
2. BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Bosnia and Herzegovina is positioned on the Balkan Peninsula with total area of 51 172
square kilometers and estimated population of 4.5 million people. Country is bordered with
Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro. Capital city is Sarajevo.
2.1 History
First recorded appearance of name Bosnia has happened in 10th century in a geo-political
handbook of Byzantine emperor Constantine VII. Since ninth century Bosnia was an
independent country and it was governed by Bans. Independency was kept on until 1463,
when last Bosnian Ban was removed and Ottoman Empire conquered this region. In 1878
36 Albert Einstein, (attributed) US (German-born) physicist (1879 - 1955),
http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/26032.html
37 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations
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Bosnia became a part of Austro-Hungarian Empire. In 1914 Gavrilo Princip, a member of
youth movement called “Young Bosnia”, assassinated Austro-Hungarian heir Franz
Ferdinand in Sarajevo. This event was, as most of historians say, an event that started the
First World War. After the end of the War, in 1918 Bosnia becomes a part of country called
country of Slovenians, Croats and Serbs, which was renamed in 1929 in Kingdom of
Yugoslavia. After Second World War Kingdom Yugoslavia became Socialist Federal
Republic of Yugoslavia and was operating under that name until October 1991. In that year
Bosnian people vote for sovereignty and in February of 1992 for independency. In May 22 of
1992 Bosnia and Herzegovina became a member of UN. Dayton agreement in November of
1995 marked the end of four years war in the country. Bosnia and Herzegovina is consisted
out of two administrative units: Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska.
The special status in the country has region of Brcko-District and it is not part of neither of
those two units.
2.2 Politics and Political structure
Based on its state organization, Bosnia and Herzegovina represents unique state structure in
the world. Legislative power is given to bicameral Parliament consisted of House of
Representatives and House of People. At the top we have presidency that is made out of three
members. Each of them elected based on his ethnic characteristics. So, one is representative
of Bosniaks, one is representative of Serbs and one is representative of Croats. Council of
ministers represents central government and is consisted out of six ministers with positions in
fields of external affairs, international trade and economy, civil affairs and communication,
human rights and refugees, European integration, and finally treasury. On the state level we
have established several agencies whose primary occupation is to create reports about
sustainable development.
2.3 Sustainable Development
As a part of Yugoslavia, Bosnia and Herzegovina was specialized in raw and energy
production. Additionally, most of military production was done in the country. It was hugely
due to huge amount of resources that were available especially for hydro and energy
production. Among that, Bosnia and Herzegovina was and still is rich by coal and metal.
Highly intensive production and exploitation of these resources were not what Sustainable
development policies imply. It was totally opposite since there was imbalanced relationship
between economy and ecology. In time when idea of Sustainable Development was formed
and developed in Rio de Janeiro, Bosnia and Herzegovina was going through war. When in
1997 Rio 5 conference was done, this country was occupied by its own reconstruction and
could not participate in developing the process of sustainable development. However, later on
through several international programs, Bosnia and Herzegovina succeed to join the process
of sustainable development and participated in forming MAP – Mediterranean Action Plan.
2.4 Economy
Since the end of the war, Bosnia and Herzegovina had two main issues. One was to rebuild
its infrastructure that was totally destroyed during the four years of war. The second one was
to change the “style” of economy. Before, in this country is so called central economy, where
most of institutions were government owned and now they had to privatize them. The main
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help for rebuilding were FDI. Total FDI in period from 1994 to 2011 is around 8 billion of
BAM, where the “best” year of FDI in Bosnia and Herzegovina was 2007 where this country
total around 2.4 billion of dollars. This year represent 30% of all FDI since 1994.
Among the main investors (2010 estimated) we have Austria (1.88 billion of BAM), Serbia
(1.72 billion of BAM), Croatia (1.35 billion of BAM) and Slovenia (1.07 billion of BAM).
When it comes to sector investments were mainly done in manufacturing where main
companies of steel production faced joint venture. In the second place of FDI we have
banking services which results in many foreign banks in our countries. In this sector we have
highest investments from Dubai, Croatia and Austria. Economy in Bosnia and Herzegovina
has faced the wall in last few years after continues growth in period before it. As whole world
faces today, this country also feels the consequences of global crisis. The 2009 was the worst
year where it GDP felt for 3%. However, this country started to recovering and in the last two
years has increasing GDP.
3. DATA USED
3.1 Unemployment
Based on International Labor Organization we define the unemployment as situation in which
people without job could not find one in past four weeks. Another definition adds that
unemployment represents a situation in which qualified worker, who are willing to work in
current conditions can not find the job. This problem is presented in each country in the
world and all governments are dealing with it. Among the reasons we can find: labor costs,
low investments from companies, political reasons, low qualifications, personal behavior, job
dissatisfaction, national policies, new technologies, economic crisis and discrimination.
Having in mind the current structure of labor market economists differentiate three main
types of unemployment; structural (the gap between availability of jobs and demand for the
workers), frictional unemployment (when people change their jobs or they move on to the
other regions or countries) and cyclical unemployment (there is generally low number of
available jobs in the market). In order to measure unemployment economists use
unemployment rate. Several international organizations are dealing by comparisons of
unemployment among the countries. Among them we have Eurostat, OECD and ILCP. Based
on the latest information Bosnia and Herzegovina takes 188th place among 200 ranked
countries. This data shows that Bosnia is dealing with big issues regarding unemployment
and that big part of its labor force is unemployed.
3.2 Trade
Trade is term that we use every day. It represents a situation in which good or service change
its owner. In order to earn money trade must happen and place where it happens is called
market. We can identify two types of trade in economy: domestic trade and international
trade. Domestic trade represents the situation where all transactions are done within a
country. On the other hand, international trade represents situation in which two or more
countries made transactions among themselves. Import happens in situation when a domestic
country buys goods and services from foreign one. In most cases two main reasons stand for
doing import. One is that domestic company can import products that have higher quality
and/or lower price than the ones that are produced within the country. On the other hand
some services such as computer equipment, for example Apple is not produced in Bosnia and
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Herzegovina, and so the only way to have it on the market is to import it. Export refers to
opposite situation. It happens when goods and services are produced at home and sold in
other country. As for import several reasons stand for export too. Among them there are
possibilities to earn higher profit, because export gives ability to company to produce and sell
more.
3.3 Inflation
Inflation represents the degree by which price level of goods and services has raised in
certain period. At the same time value of money has decreased, since for the same money
buyer can buy less now. Inflation can result in real decrease of money value, which results in
uncertainties in future. This is seen as negative effect of inflation. On the other hand inflation
can give authorities and government possibility to adjust nominal rates and to call promotes
investments in nonmonetary areas. However inflation is normal from time to time and in
some cases shows how economy is doing. Inflation may be divided into cost push inflation
(companies decide to increase their prices because their costs have increased) or demand pull
inflation (demand for certain product increases so much that it is far more above the supply of
that product). Formula for CPI is new price / old price x 100.
3.4 Salary
Salary represents a payment from company, organization or other legal entity to an employee
on a periodical basis. Salary is important to economy since it provides finance to population
so they can spend and move money around. Based on the contract terms between employer
and employee we may distinguish salary by time (workers are paid for the time they work in
their companies), salary by work (company pays its worker regarding the work done such as
time spent on work and quality of finished work) or salary by results (workers are paid based
on quantity they have produced). Economy ranges workforce based on its income. The main
part of household income is its salaries and that why today there are several categories or
salary grades. Those often called “levels of salaries” distinguish employees and importance
of position they occupy. Same as in other areas of economy there has to be levels of income
so economy could produce different products that have different prices and etc. Beside
national or in modern time, global economic reasons, salary provides information to
individuals so they can be able to see their current position.
4. ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
Unemployment
has
varied in the period of
five years.
As
already
mentioned
unemployment may be
the reason of several
factors. As we can see
from the chart one the
left, unemployment was
decreasing until 2009. It
is assumed that world
crisis from 2008 stroke.
328

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2009, and it results in increase of 5.98% of unemployment rate in
3 years. Analysis of 58 data for each variable on 5 year basis shows the following:
Descriptive Statistics
N

Range

Minimum

Maximum

Mean

Std. Deviation

Unemployment

58

66761.00

469967.00

536728.00

511660.1552

17367.22390

Import

58

824155.00

719309.00

1543464.00

1205184.3793

171683.70156

Export

58

346719.00

385687.00

732406.00

562313.4310

90477.96194

Inflation

58

3.30

-1.20

2.10

.2931

.60491

Salaries

58

203.00

625.00

828.00

764.9483

59.53693

Valid N (listwise)

58

Standard deviation for unemployment shows that most of the data is somewhere around the
mean. When it comes to trade, import counts for 69,900,694.00 of BAM (68.19%), while
export counts for only 32,614,179.00 of BAM (31.81%). This shows that in almost five year
(January and February of 2007 excluded) Bosnia and Herzegovina made trade deficit of
37,286,515.00 of BAM. Inflation in 58 months totaled to 17% which means that if people
could buy certain things for 100 BAM in February of 2007 in December of 2011 they had to
paid 117 BAM. Average salaries increased from 625 BAM to 828 BAM or for 32.48%. It
increased until 2009 and from that point it has almost a flat curve. In December of 2011
Bosnia and Herzegovina counted 536,728.00 of unemployed people or 43.83% of its total
workforce. Even if this number of unemployed people is the record for five years the
percentage of unemployed people is not the biggest one (44.74% in March 2007). Beside
unemployment standard deviation is low only in salary while higher standard deviation we
have in import and export and extremely high in inflation which means that results varying
hugely from the mean.
5. CONCLUSION
The aim of this paper was to examine five determinants of economic sustainable development
of Bosnia and Herzegovina and to see how they impact situation. From the results we could
see that the main reason for unemployment, among the variables mentioned, is trade. Huge
trade deficit is among the leading reason why this country stagnates in sustainable
development. In order to operate with profit, company s revenue has to exceed the expenses.
Same goes for economy; if there is no positive outcomes out of trade, in that case country
cannot operate positive. However, it is important to increase export, because based on several
economic theories it increases employment. On the other hand, economic researches show
that relationship among unemployment and import is strongly negative, which means that
increase in import also increases employment. Reason for that is that there is more
consumption, which represents that economy is growing and that more money is available.
The upcoming years will be crucial for the country since data shows slight stabilization in the
last year. It shows that country started to recover a little bit from the crisis that hit it in the
329

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

2009. In 2010 government made a strategic plan with several strategic goals in order to move
forward. Among the goals they put macroeconomic stabilization, competiveness,
employment, sustainable development and EU integration. In order to succeed government
has to implement policies developed in this strategic plan efficiently and has to coordinate
among these five goals, because the only way to have results is to implement them in the
same time.
REFERENCES
Agency of statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Last Accessed April 29, 2012,
http://bhas.ba/?option=com_saopstenje&amp;cbgodina_saopstenja=2012&amp;pregled=1&amp;lang=ba
A. Hodžić (2008). Geo-economic and geopolitical importance of the Balkan region in the
expansion of European Union. Center for Security studies.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, The Council of Ministers, Directorate for Economic Planning
(2010). Development strategy of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
CIA - Central Intelligence Agency, Last accessed on April
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bk.html

28,

2012,

N.L. Dobretsov, A.V. Kanygin, and A.E. Kontorovich, Paper on Economics and Environment
as Factors of Sustainable Development of Siberian Mineral Resources
Quotations Page, Last Accessed on April 22, 2012, http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/
26032.html
Tutor2u, Last Accessed on April 10, 2012, http://tutor2u.net/economics/revision-notes/a2macro-causes-of-inflation.html
Wikipedia, Last Accessed April 29, 2012, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations

The Applicability of Green Economy Policies: Governance Approach and Sustainable
Development
Fatma Neval Genç, Gülizar Seda Çorak, Murat Yılmaz
Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences,
09900, Nazilli, Aydın, Turkey.
E-mails: fatmanevalgenc@gmail.com, seda.corak@adu.edu.tr, muratyilmaz@adu.edu.tr
Phone: +90 256 347 70 11
Abstract
This report tries to focus on how the “governance” approach can enable “green economy”
that develops along with change in the field of energy. As is known, governance approach
emerged as a product of public administration paradigm starting to change at 1970s, and is
330

�</text>
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                <text>Macroeconomic determinants of Sustainable Development  in Bosnia and Herzegovina</text>
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ERGÜN, Uğur </text>
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                <text>The origin of term sustainable development comes from forestry and it means the extent of  cutting and putting the new trees on the planet. Synonymous for it is sustainability and it  refers to ability to endure as much longer as it is possible. This paper shows the degree of  correlation between sustainable development in Bosnia and Herzegovina and five  macroeconomic determinants: unemployment, export, import, average salaries and CPI as a  measure for inflation. The paper provides information about importance of economy in this  process and it explains all variables that are used. It is based on the period of five consecutive  years (2007-2011). Research for all of five variables was conducted on monthly basis for this  period, so in total it provides 58 data (January and February of 2007 are excluded) for each  variable. Next thing that this paper shows is the current position of the country in terms of its  development. The paper represents a combination of basic research (provides a lot of useful  information about the topic) and quantitative research (shows numerical results that are  gotten by the analysis of the problem). Unemployment, as one of the biggest and growing  problems in the country, is dependent variable and paper tries to prove relationships among  this variable and the others. Results in the paper are obtained through descriptive analysis.  The paper provides data about causes for high unemployment in our country and it shows  how much impact each variables mentioned above have or does it have at all. Finally, paper  shows on what country should put more emphasize in order to improve its current position  and to be able to compete with more developed countries. Keywords: sustainable development, unemployment, export, import, salary, inflation, CPI,  economy, GDP</text>
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