145 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c643b98c1f965c25953c6a7bef893643.pdf ba9de6edd3133b17a98b469ef34fcb46 PDF Text Text Biotechnology and Aquaculture in Sustainable Development Altunok Muhammet, Peker Zerife, Serezli Ramazan, Tekinay Ahmet Adem, Kizak Volkan Izmir Katip Celebi University, Faculty of Fisheries, Izmir, Turkey, Tunceli University, Faculty of Fisheries, Tunceli, Turkey, E-mails: muhammet.altunok@hotmail.de,zerifesude@hotmail.com,ramazan.serezli@hotmail.de, aatekinay@yahoo.com, volkan.kizak@tunceli.edu.tr Abstract Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector in the world with its increasing role for economy and safe food strategy of countries. Due to the continuing depletion of the fish stocks, farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants, is now a substantial global industry supplying a significant proportion of the aquatic products consumed. Shortage in food supply and high prices are the possible important risks in the future, and aquatic products are the valuable sources of protein and essential nutrient components for global food security and eliminating malnutrition. Aquaculture also plays an important role in rural economies through the creation of new employments. In these cases, aquaculture outputs will need to be enhanced several fold in order to meet the rising demands for fish and other aquatic products in coming years. Biotechnology options seem to be good potential for increasing aquacultural productivity, food security and environmental quality worldwide. Biotechnology is offering valuable options such as protein expression, microsatellite, gene mapping and genomic, DNA vaccines, DNA chips, proteomics, transgenic technology and embryonic stem cell technology. This technology provides genetic manipulations, molecular cloning, embryo manipulation, genetically-engineered diagnostics, immunoprophylactic agents. All of these applications could help improve the selective breeding, hybridization, productivity, health, growth, nutrition, cryopreservation and conservation of genetic resources in aquacultural stocks for the benefit of mankind. However, there is need for the regulation of biotechnology activities in terms of the potential adverse impacts on the environment and human health. There is also increasing concern about the impact of biotechnology on sustainable development in various fields. The main environmental safety issue of these applications is the effects of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) on biodiversity and gene transfer in the environment. Therefore, this review discussed the integration of biotechnology and biosafety in aquaculture, and policies for the environmentally sound use and management of aquacultural biotechnology in sustainable development. Keywords: Biotechnology, Aquaculture, Sustainable Development, Food security, Public health 182 �1.INTRODUCTION Aquaculture is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants under controlled conditions. Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector in the world with its increasing role in the economic development and safe food strategy of countries. Recently aquaculture sector is faced with several challenges such as low productivity, low diversification of species, high competition in the market and environmental impacts that have resulted from the intensification and global development of aquaculture industry. Seasonal fluctuations in environmental conditions and in the supply of resources with good quality and stable costs such as feeds are also prevalent. Biotechnology is one tool that holds much promise towards addressing these aquacultural problems. The relatively new tools of biotechnology offer significant opportunities to improve aquacultural productivity and environmental quality worldwide. Today biotechnology has developed creative new methods to detect the gene liable for specific characteristics, such as disease resistance, nutrient composition, and insert them into another fish or aquatic organism (Fletcher et al., 2011). Biotechnology offers tremendous potential for improving production and it provides opportunities to reduce the need for additives in feeds and the use of chemicals (e.g. hormones). Advanced biotechnology in feed are rapidly evolving and promise to improve the composition, digestibility and bio-availability of feed towards high growth rate (Brinker and Reiter, 2011). All of these contribute to increase the intensity and produce more products at less economic and environmental cost, thereby helping to build global food security and more sustainable and environmentally friendly farming. Aquacultural biotechnology could generally be separated into techniques; biochemical and molecular markers, protein expression technology, microsatellite, RFLP and QTL analysis and applications (gene mapping, gene cloning, transgenesis, population genetics, chromosome (ploidy) manipulation, gynogenesis, androgenesis, sex reversal, proteomics, DNA chips technology and embryonic stem cell technology. Protein expression technology allows producing many bioactive molecules such as hormones, gonadotropins and enzymes. DNA fingerprinting and mapping technologies are principally used in stock idenfication, breeding selection and identification of genetic markers for significant traits such as growth enhancement and disease resistance in the genome (Hew and Fletcher, 2001). This technology is more effective and faster than traditional breeding techniques to develop new strains. 2.Sustainable development of aquaculture According to the current trends in food sectors, wild fisheries, natural stocks and demand for aquaculture products, it is awaited that aquaculture will become a major driving force to increase food production worldwide. Products from aquaculture will need to be increased several fold in order to meet the rising demands for fish and other aquatic foods in coming years (Figure 1). It was recently estimated that aquaculture provides about 50% of all the fish consumed by human today (FAO, 2010). On the other hand, the aquaculture industry will have to double its food produce with less land and water in the next decades, mainly because of growing pressures from urbanisation, industrialisation and climate change. Moreover, water scarcity that results in competition for water amongst local people, farmers and industry, is raising the potential for conflict. 183 �Figure 1. Projected supply of food fish originating from aquaculture and capture fisheries; based on assumed constant capture fisheries production, constant production of fish meal, constant demand for food fish and projected population increases. The line at 2015 represents the point where the food fish supply from aquaculture is projected to equal that from capture fisheries.(FAO, 2007): The intensification of aquaculture has led to concerns attached to environmental impacts, food safety, animal health and welfare, and socio-economic issues (Subasinghe et al., 2009). All of these factors influence the sustainability in development of current aquaculture system. As a principle for the sustainable development of aquaculture, it can be said that as the improvement of economic productivity for aquaculture is necessary and this must be environmentally acceptable. Therefore, the ecosystem where the aquaculture operation takes place has to be identified to control unwanted interactions. The identifying process includes a wide range of topics relevant to ecological equilibrium and biodiversity conservation. Hence, environmental acceptability is the most difficult component of the sustainable development. In addition to this, as an indicator, economic viability and improving the economic performance of the aquaculture practices are also critical to achieve the improvements in aquaculture efficiency and to meet the world's increasing demand for aquatic food. General trends in development of the aquaculture sector are the following (Subasinghe, 2007): (a) continuing intensification of aquaculture production; (b) continuing diversification of species use; (c) continuing diversification of production systems and practices; (d) increasing influence of markets, trade and consumers; (e) enhancing regulation and improving governance of the sector and (f ) increasing attention on better management of the sector. Aquaculture production increases but there is a question remains whether the industry grows in a sustainable manner and fast enough to meet the future projected demand while preserving the natural resources. To cope with this global uncertainity, biotechnology plays a key role in the sustainable development of aquaculture includes economic and social development as well as environmental protection throughout the world. Application of biotechnology to production 184 �of aquatic species has great potential to improve aquaculture and to meet demand for aquatic foods. Along with increasing production of aquatic food products, biological techniques should be applied to increase productivity and improve product quality. In parallel, there are several potential key contributions of biotechnology both to increase resistance against diseases and to increase growth rates of aquatic species. Biotechnology contributes to sustainable aquaculture by reducing the dependence on chemicals, particularly antibiotics, through the deployment of genes conferring resistance to diseases. Biotechnology also provides powerful tools for the enhancement and protection of wild and cultured aquatic species, particularly the improvement of fish stocks in commercial aquaculture production. Also, biotechnology allows the production of species in more quantities on the same area (intensification) at a lower cost, the support biodiversity and vital ecosystems, and the reduction of environmentally damaging aquacultural practices. 3.Aquacultural biotechnology Biotechnology has potential to affect aquaculture and can provide at least a partial solution to the problem of feeding the world‘s growing population because without dramatic increases in production this cannot be achieved. Exploiting more resources such as more water, fish for meal and oil, and heavy use of chemicals for aquacultural use is environmentally unsustainable. Modern biotechnology has also opened up opportunities to increase production and enhance the quality of fresh and processed farmed species. In addition, farmed species are now being developed to resist disease, and this will reduce losses and allows increased production on same area, and therefore bring possible benefits to rural areas. Finally biotechnology can contribute significantly to aquaculture industry, for example by helping to make more diversification in farmed species that will more attractive to consumers. Modern biotechnology will be a useful for the genetic improvement of aquacultured species and the protection and management of wild aquatic populations. 4.Genetically modified species (Transgenics) Recently, aquaculture sector is growing and developing in biotechonogy advance for genetic improvements in aquatic species. As a main application of modern biotechnology transgenics are new varieties of species have been bred by cross of two strains in order to transfer desirable traits from each into the new variety to improve the genetic traits of the species used in aquaculture. Transgenics involves the selective transfer of one or more genes for desired traits from one variety to another. These traits may include improvement of growth rates, larger size, more efficient feed convertion into muscle and control of sexuel maturation (Elzaeems, 2004). growth hormone genes from human or animal sources was successfully introduced into several fish species such as salmon, trout and tilapia, resulted several times faster growth than their natural counterparts. This is a faster and more accurate method of breeding new varieties. If desired traits cannot be achieved by traditional breeding, the transfer of genes between species also is possible. For exemple, better tolerance to environmental stresses and increasing of resistance to extreme environments are important applications to establish unique characteristics and produce a valuable biological product such as antifreeze protein gene (AFP) transfer in fish for adaptation to a freezing environment (Hew at al., 1992). In this regard, one more constraints should be the potential impacts of climate change on aquaculture. Biotechnology responsible for the practical response to climate change and can help to strengthen the adaptive capacity and resilience of the sector. Tolerant of low oxygen levels in the water is a desirable genetic trait that can also be 185 �developed in the aquatic organisms by using different transgenic techniques. Intensification and sustainable development of aquaculture will rely on disease prevention, and therefore, biotechnology is essential way for greater resistance to pathogens and improvement of farmed species health through selection for disease resistance (El-Zaeem and Aseem, 2004). Also, by using this technique disease transfer between cultured and wild populations can be reduced. New products and market opportunities can be developed related to aquatic species welfare. There are two main techniques to transfer genetic material in fish. These are micro-injection (injection of genetic material into newly fertilized fish eggs) and electroporation (transferring of DNA into embryos or directly into tissues through the use of an electrical current). RISK: However recent concerns about genetically modified species and food products derived from them may curtail their widespread use. GMOs have not gained worldwide acceptance. At this point, there is not enough independent scientific research to introduce their potential risks to human health. Horizontal gene transfer from genetically modified plants to microorganisms was shown in a previous study that genes from a transgenic crop move quickly into weedy population (Snow at all., 1999). Questions concerning the transfer of allergenic proteins and potential ecological impact of virus-resistant transgenic plants have been also raised (Tepfer, 2002). Transgenic fish is offered new species for aquaculture development but any escapes into the environment can threat wild populations and biodiversity8. 5.Hybridization Hybridization is a simple genetic technology that is the most practical way is the crosses in captivity of males of one species and females of the other. Inter-specific hybridisation have been practiced for aquaculture to increase growth rate, transfer or combine desirable traits of two species and increase resistance to culture conditions. Hybridization also produces monosex populations for the advantage of sexual dimorphism when the sex-determining mechanisms in the parental lines are different such as hybridisation of tilapias. It is also preferred for stocking programmes to reduce unwanted reproduction through production of sterile fish or mono-sex populations and increase environmental tolerances. It is widely practiced with many fish species throughout the world such as hybrid striped bass in the USA, hybrid clarid catfish in Thailand and salmonids in general. This helps diversification and to ensure a steady and consistent supply of fish to the market. The development of artificial breeding techniques and the improvements in reproductive technologies allows more domestication of aquatic species and mating many of them through artificial fertilization after hand striping eggs and milt from fish. In marine fish culture, sterile hybrid fish should be usefull because of the environmental concern (unwanted reproduction). Despite its widespread use, hybridization has still to cope with some problems depend on the genetic structure of the parents, particularly in the context of unexpected and undesirable results in hybrid progeny, such as failure to produce sterile fish, loss of color pattern, and reduced viability. RISK: Hybridization does represent a genetic modification wherein genes are moved between different species. Thus, escaped hybrids may be aquaculture industry's biggest environmental challenges regarding to the genetic resources and biodiversity. 6.Hormonal applications Biotechnological tools can be applied to induce breeding of fish and early development of aquatic species. Gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) is the most used now in the induced breeding of fish and marked commercially throughout the world (Alok et al., 2000). 186 �Hormonal stimulation allows year-round production of gametes and fry of economically valuable species. Domestication of species for aquaculture is necessary and the number of domesticated aquatic species is still rising rapidly. Hormone therapy is applied to improve and control of reproductive cycles during the domestication. Similarly, this tool may provide techniques for improving the reproductive success and survival of endangered species, thereby helping to preserve the biodiversity in wild. Higher growth of species in aquaculture sector is one of the main goals for farmers, and therefore various types of growth hormone is applyed in fish and other aquatic animals. Hormone treatment also includes inducing sterility and triploidy. RISK: Hormones are issues of great public concern because they pose a serious threat to human and environment. The significance of these substances for the environment and human health is not yet fully understood but they accumulate in environment and play important role on sexsual dimorphism, fertility and toxicity in ecosystem. 7.Chromosome set manipulation Chromosome manipulations have been applied extensively in the improvement of fish breeding for gonadal sterilization, sex control and clonation. It is important practical way in cultured fish species to induce polyploidy and uniparental chromosome inheritance. There are two types of uniparental inheritance: gynogenesis that is the process of development with maternal inheritance and androgenesis that is paternal. Poliploidy used to induce triploids to produce sterile progenies. Induction of tetraploidy provides sterile triploids through interploidy crosses between tetraploids and diploids. The technique also can be used to generate homozygous lines in fish such as tilapias, cyprinids and salmonids. 8.Cryopreservation Cryopreservation is a process where biological material is long-term preserved by cooling to low temperatures usually at −196 °C in liquid nitrogen. As any physiological activities and biochemical reactions is tranquilized and effectively stopped at these low temperatures, therefore making it possible to keep them viable for long period. Cryoprotectant solutions are used in the process to prevent preserved cells from damage due to freezing during the cooling and thawing process. The development of cryopreservation technology provides short and long term storage of gametes, and thus the technology has been adapted to cryopreservation of fish spermatozoa. Application of the method to aquaculture increases the flexibility in breeding of species; specificly if the sexes mature at different times (in hybridization) or spawning season is very short. Cryopreservation overcomes problems of low amount of semen from males in photoperiod treatment. The resulting benefits could include year-round production of gametes and creation of new markets (cryopreservation of genetically improved or phenotypic sperm). Gene banking of cultivated and wild aquatic organisms is also essential and the technique may help to conserve genetic resources and biodiversity. 9.Aquatic species health and vaccines Disease has become a primary constraint to sustainable aquaculture production and improvements in aquatic animal health are coming from modern biotechnology. Biotechnological tools such as gene probes and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has showed great potential in this area. Genetically engineered (DNA) vaccines are also being developed to protect fish against pathogens and are expected to replace other methods of vaccine 187 �production. In general, DNA vaccines contain only genes of the pathogen, which produce the antigen whereas conventional vaccines are made from live, weakened or killed pathogen. The cost of this technique is low compared to producing weakened live organisms and these vaccines more stable at normal temperatures. Previous studies showed that the non specific defense system can be stimulated using microbials such as lipopoliysacharides, peptidoglycans or glucans (Soltanian at al., 2009). This technology has been adopted for aquaculture to improve the health and well being of cultivated aquatic organisms. The development of new vaccines help the organisms recognize and fight diseases causing losses to millions of dollars annually throughout the world. It also prevents the using chemicals in aqauaculture, means preventing chemical pollution in environment and potential hazardaous effects to human health. RISK: However, genetically modified vaccines carry significant unpredictability and a number of inherent harmful potentials and hazards such as potential risks about the vaccine DNA to invade the host‘s genome and possibly trigger genes relating to tumour development. Effects of these vaccines on the non-targeted species, possible genetic recombinations with naturally occurring relatives and hybrid virus progenies are other unpredictable options. There is, therefore, a great deal of caution surrounding the development of DNA vaccines at this time. Feed production Nutrition is essential in maintaing a healthy stock in a sustainable and profitable aquaculture and still in the developing stage. As feed costs rise and markets become more competitive, biotechnological aplications are currently being used in the feed sources and the improvement of the feed composition. In the farming of aquatic species fish meal is the most common protein source in diets. However, wild fish stocks are declining and the available fish resources will not be enough to meet the increasing demand for fish meal and fish oil. Therefore, there are environmental concerns regarding fish feed such as conservation of wild stocks and waste dischargers into the water due to excess phosphorus in diets causing eutrophication. These are main limiting factors regarding to feed in sustainable development of aquaculture, thus biotechnology are used to produce alternative plant based protein sources because plants contain anti-nutritional compounds and requires processing to improve its quality. In this regard, biotechnology allows the producing feed enzymes that help to improve the utilization of plant-protein based feed by aquatic species. As another environmental concern regarding the problem of phosphorus pollution, modern biotechnology is working on the development of low environmental-loading feed. 10.CONCLUSION Aquacultural biotechnology is now evolving very rapidly and making a significant contribution to the development of sector. In general, the technology promises immense gains in food security, economic issues and environmental protection. Efforts are directed to: the improvement of fish feed quality; genetic engineering in order to improve the protein value of fishes; the reproduction of species; disease diagnoses; hybridization technology 188 �genetic engineering for the production of vaccines. the treatment of pollutants generated by aquaculture. All of these factors influence the sustainability of an aquaculture system and may play fundamental role in future aquacultural development policies. Improved productivity and the resulting increase in production would benefit the rural poor by providing more food, poverty reduction and through improved employment opportunities. Advances in biotechnology applied to aquaculture can be useful in understanding waste treatment and reducing pollution risks. To eliminate uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the risks, governmental support is the essential element in enhancing aquaculture development without any environmental impact. Thus, sustainable biotechnological applications in aquaculture have to be identified and developed according to the risk assessments of the product and method. There are some principles that aquacultural biotechnology must adhere to in order to be sustainable, namely; environmentally acceptable in terms of methods, improved species and discharges. safety for human health large scale and heavy restrictions for non-native and geneticly modified species (farming in land-based tanks) supporting the long-term economic and social well-being of local communities ensuring a strong healthy and welfare for farmed species economically feasable and sustainable more investment for biotechnology industry. achieving a sustainable feed resources promoting good menagment involving human resource development regulations of the modifications Biotechnology is almost becoming an industry but still there is no any knowledge what the impacts will be. Moreover, biotechnology has raised important ethical and morality issues which need to be carefully addressed before its application to aquaculture. Therefore, to ensure maximum social benefit at minimal risk is high on the policy agenda of the countries In addition development of biotechnology will need to be shared among diferent disciplines and stakeholders. In this regard, educating of decision-makers in food safety and biotechnology regulation will be also very important. In conclusion biotechnology is important key for aquaculture, but it might still be too early to judge the future impact of biotechnology on its sustainable development. REFERENCES Alok D., Talwar G.P., Garg L.C. 2000. In vivo activity of salmon gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH), its agonists with structural modifications at positions 6 and 9, mammalian GnRH agonists and native cGnRH-II on the spawning of an Indian catfish. Aquaculture International 7, 383-392. Brinker, A., Reiter, R. 2011. Fish meal replacement by plant protein substitution and guar gum addition in trout feed, Part I: effects on feed utilization and fish quality. Aquaculture 310:350-360. 189 �El-zaeems, S.Y. 2004. Alteration of the productive performance characteristics of Orechromis niloticus and Tilapia Zillii under the effect of foreign DNA injection. Egypt J. Aquat. Boil. Fish. 8(1): 261-278. El-Zaeem, S.Y., Aseem, S.S. 2004. Application of biotechnology in fish breeding: 1 – production of highly immune genetically modified Nile, tilapia Orechromis niloticus with accelerated growth by direct injection of Shark FAO. 2007. The role of aquaculture in sustainable development. Thirty-fourth Session. 17-24 November 2007, C 2007/INF/16 Rome. FAO. 10 pp. FAO. 2010. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. Rome. 197 pp. Fletcher, G. L., Hobbs, R. S., Evans, R. P., Shears, M. A., Hahn, A. L., Hew, C. L. 2011. Lysozyme transgenic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Aquaculture Research, 42: 427–440. Hew CL, Davies PL, Fletcher G. 1992. Antifreeze protein gene transfer in Atlantic salmon. Mol Mar Biol Biotechnol. 1(4-5):309-17. Hew, C.L., Fletcher, G.L. 2001. The role of aquatic biotechnology in aquaculture. Aquaculture 197, 191-204. Snow, A.A, Andersen, B, Jørgensen, R. 1999. Costs of transgenic herbicide resistance introgressed from Brassica napus into weedy B. rapa. Molecular Ecology 8:605–615. Soltanian, S., Stuyven, E., Cox, E., Sorgeloos, P., Bossier, P. 2009. Beta-glucans as immunostimulant in vertebrates and invertebrates. Critical Reviews in Microbiology , 35: 109–138. Subasinghe, R.P. 2007. Aquaculture: Status and Prospects. In ―Role of Aquaculture in Sustainable Development. FAO Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Rome, Italy. Subasinghe, R., Soto, D., Jia, J. 2009. Global aquaculture and its role in sustainable development. Reviews in Aquaculture, 1: 2–9. Tepfer, M. 2002. Risk assessment of virus-resistant transgenic plants. Annual Review of Phytopathology. 40, 467-491. Environmental Impact of Hydroelectric power plants (HPP) and Fishways Mehmet Kocabaş1, Nadir Başçinar2, Filiz Kutluyer3, Önder Aksu3 1 Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Wildlife Ecology & Management, 61080, Trabzon, Turkey 2Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Department of Fisheries Technology Engineering, 61530, Trabzon, Turkey 3Tunceli University, Fisheries Faculty, 62000, Tunceli Abstract Hydroelectric power plants (HPP), which are not cause environment pollution relatively and renewable, inexpensive, has increased importance. However, there are positive and negative impacts on the ecological balance of these systems. One of the main environmental impact of hydropower development is related to fish passage both upstream and downstream. 190 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1243 Title A name given to the resource Biotechnology and Aquaculture in Sustainable Development Author Author Altunok , Muhammet Abstract A summary of the resource. Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector in the world with its increasing role for economy and safe food strategy of countries. Due to the continuing depletion of the fish stocks, farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants, is now a substantial global industry supplying a significant proportion of the aquatic products consumed. Shortage in food supply and high prices are the possible important risks in the future, and aquatic products are the valuable sources of protein and essential nutrient components for global food security and eliminating malnutrition. Aquaculture also plays an important role in rural economies through the creation of new employments. In these cases, aquaculture outputs will need to be enhanced several fold in order to meet the rising demands for fish and other aquatic products in coming years. Biotechnology options seem to be good potential for increasing aquacultural productivity, food security and environmental quality worldwide. Biotechnology is offering valuable options such as protein expression, microsatellite, gene mapping and genomic, DNA vaccines, DNA chips, proteomics, transgenic technology and embryonic stem cell technology. This technology provides genetic manipulations, molecular cloning, embryo manipulation, genetically-engineered diagnostics, immunoprophylactic agents. All of these applications could help improve the selective breeding, hybridization, productivity, health, growth, nutrition, cryopreservation and conservation of genetic resources in aquacultural stocks for the benefit of mankind. However, there is need for the regulation of biotechnology activities in terms of the potential adverse impacts on the environment and human health. There is also increasing concern about the impact of biotechnology on sustainable development in various fields. The main environmental safety issue of these applications is the effects of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) on biodiversity and gene transfer in the environment. Therefore, this review discussed the integration of biotechnology and biosafety in aquaculture, and policies for the environmentally sound use and management of aquacultural biotechnology in sustainable development. Keywords: Biotechnology, Aquaculture, Sustainable Development, Food security, Public health Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f557ed6de5ea04616c4da7a09d60884f.pdf 472d946624ef724a7c841648c72f2f4a PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Öniş, Z. (2000), “Luxembourg. Helsinki and Beyond: Towards an Interpretation of RecentTurkey-EU Relations”, Government and Opposition, 35 (4), pp. 463-483. Öniş, Z.. (2003), “Domestic Politics, International Norms and Challenges to theState: Turkey-EU Relations in the post-Helsinki era”, Turkish Studies, 4 (1), pp.9-35. Pike, A., Rodriguez-Pose, A. & Tomaney, J. (2006) Local and Regional Development, Abingdon, Routledge. Reeves, T., (2005) “Turkey’s Regional Policy on the Road to the EU”, Turkish PolicyQuarterly, Vol. 4, No. 3 (Fall 2005). Shearlock, James, Phillip James and Jo Phillips (2000) Regional Sustainable Development: Are the new Regional Devlopment Agencies arned with the Information that they require? Sustainable Development8, 79–88 (2000) Sungar, M., (2005) “Turkish-EU Negotiations:Prospective Effects on Public Administration and Regional Development”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 4, No. 3 (Fall2005). Comparison Study of Approaches to Measuring Poverty Implementing Fuzzy Set and Classic Set Using The Household Data of Turkey Alparslan Abdurrahman Basaran1, Murat Alper Basaran2 1Hacettepe University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Public Finance, 06800, Ankara, Turkey 2Akdeniz University, Faculty of Engineering, Management Engineering Department, 07425,Alanya, Turkey E-mails: aab@hacettepe.edu.tr, muratalper@yahoo.com Abstract Poverty is one of the issues several industrialized and developing countries encounter in the world. No country is exempt from this problem and its consequences. The top list item of the agendas of both countries and international agencies is related to diminishing poverty. Before taking action against it, countries and agencies need to measure poverty based on collected data. It is a sophisticated issue having several dimensions. So far measuring it with available data has resulted with indicators which show some deficiencies. When poverty is considered, it is a linguistic term and has a vague concept as mentioned in the theory of fuzzy set. Therefore, a new approach is proposed in the literature to examine it in order to overcome those deficiencies mentioned when classic tools are employed. On the other hand, fuzzy set 117 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo theory is a mathematical tool used for linguistic calculations. For example, when said that income level is low. Actually everybody knows what it means. But what it means changes depending upon the perception of the person. Therefore, measuring low income is a problematic area. Fuzzy set theory enables practitioners to calculate those linguistic terms. In this study, the household data of Turkey of the year 2003 collected annually based on almost 25000 is used to calculate both classic poverty indicator(s) and fuzzy poverty indicator in order to compare those measures. In the end we will show that fuzzy poverty indicator can be comprehensive in some comparisons. Also, it provides more information in terms of understanding the concept of poverty Keywords: Poverty, fuzzy set, fuzzy index, Sustainable development 1. INTRODUCTION In the past few decades the measurement of poverty traditionally took place by determining whether an individual or a household could be classified as poor depending on whether their income or expenditure was above or below a specific value, the poverty line. In the measurement of poverty, after determining concrete poverty line the next step is to select available indices which shows the fraction in the total population, the intensity of poverty and the degree of inequality among the poor called such as respectively the head count, poverty gap and the severity of poverty index. Contrary to these classical approaches, there is a considerable and growing both theoretical and empirical, on the multi-dimensional measures of poverty. According to this approach poverty is a complex and vague phenomenon to separate the population poor and non poor. (Cerioli & Zani, 1990) criticized the vagueness concept of income and proposed a multi dimensional measure of poverty using fuzzy set theory to evaluate living conditions in Italian county. (Cheli & Lemmi, 1995) enhanced the fuzzy concept method, called Totally Fuzzy and Relative (TFR), by deriving deprivation indices directly from the distribution function. According to (Bantilan, Bantilan & Castro, 1992) the theory of fuzzy set provides a new approach to the use of traditional economic variables such as income or expenditure to derive new measures of poverty. Moreover the approach can readily make use of the extensive information contained in the set of standard of living indicators. (Miceli, 1998) assess living conditions in Switzerland following (Cerioli & Zani, 1990) multi dimensional fuzzy measure of poverty. In this paper, in the light of technique suggested by (Cerioli & Zani, 1990) and (Miceli, 1998), fuzzy index poverty is calculated for Turkey from the household survey conducted in 2003 (The State Institute of Statistic of The Republic of Turkey, Households Survey, 2003). Also, classic set theory, which is used in the calculation of regular poverty measures, is employed to calculate classic poverty measure to compare the fuzzy one with classic poverty measure. 2. Background Fuzzy set theory first was introduced by (Zadeh, 1965). Since then it has been widely employed in many disciplines where the data are imprecise. In the classic set theory, an 118 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo object is either a member of a set which is defined by sharp boundaries or not. This implies a certain membership. However, in the fuzzy set theory, an object is a member of a set with a degree of membership taking values from the interval [0 1]. In the classic set theory, an ordinary subset A of a set U is determined by its indicator function, or characteristic function defined by (1) The indicator function of a subset A of a set U specifies whether or not an element is in A. There are only two possible values the indicator function can take. However, in fuzzy set theory, any element belonging to a given fuzzy subset A of set U takes a value between 0 and 1 depending on its compatibility with this set. A fuzzy set A of set U is a set whose elements are ordered pairs which are shown as follows: (2) where x is a generic element of U and μ (x) is called the degree of membership of x in the fuzzy set A. Actually fuzzy set A of set U is a function from U → [0,1]. Also any fuzzy subset V is a function. In the fuzzy set terminology µ is called membership function with the defined domain which means that the function which will be defined according to some data or some linguistic term, for example poverty, is specified by the experts. For a fuzzy set : U → [0,1], the function A is called membership function. Instead of A, μ is used as a membership function throughout the paper. For a fuzzy concept, different functions A can be considered. The choice of the function A is subjective and context dependent. For example, “young” is a fuzzy concept and can be defined as follows: (3) where 40 and 25 are upper bound and lower bound respectively and x is generic term for the fuzzy set “young”. It is easily verified that this membership function can take various values between [0,1]depending on values of x . With this background information, poverty which is a fuzzy term can be modeled by fuzzy set theory. The classic approach draws a line called poverty line separating poor and non-poor. But this is not really helpful in differentiating the difference between a person or a household just above the poverty line and other person or household just below the poverty line in terms of understanding who is in fact poor or nonpoor. We are not saying that classic approaches are useless but they have deficiencies and fuzzy set theory might provide remedies for them. Instead of classic approaches, in this paper fuzzy index of poverty is employed for the data which are gathered by the Survey of Households conducted by The State Institute of Statistics of The Republic of Turkey in 2003. 119 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo As mentioned in the related literature, poverty is a multidimensional structure and requires to combine different kinds of data. These data include continuous and categorical variables, which are dichotomic and polytomic. In searching one index measuring poverty, both categoric and continuous variables are generally employed and incorporated. This causes problems both in interpretation and calculation. 3. Fuzzy Index of Poverty Instead of classic approaches, in this paper fuzzy index of poverty is employed for the data which are gathered by the Survey of Households conducted by The State Institute of Statistics of The Republic of Turkey in 2003. Instead of making composite index which consists of both categoric and continuous indicators, only continuous variables are selected. In fuzzy set theory, fuzzifying is very useful means that help calculations much easier. The four variables, which are annual disposable income, food expenditures, cloth and footwear expenditures, and habitable area of the apartment, in this study are continuous. To calculate fuzzy index of poverty, the first step is to fuzzify variables. Half of the median of the distribution is set to minimum and twice the median of the distribution is set to maximum [4]. Half of the median as a minimum is used to calculate the relative poverty of income by World Bank [6]. Twice of median as maximum is used in the paper written by [4]. These lower and upper bounds are adopted for all the four fuzzy indicators due to the fact that 25000 households have many outlier cases and median is a robust statistic. The membership function used in calculating degree of poverty of households is given as follows: = (4) where i, j denote persons belonging to poor set (i= 1, 2,...,n) and indicators (j=1,...,k) respectively and max min u ,u denote twice median and half median values of the distribution respectively. In our study there are 25000 households and 4 indicators. Based on the membership function above, the persons between lower bound and upper bound are thought to be poor with different fuzzy grades in terms of four indicators. First indicator is calculated based on income variable, second one is for food expenditure variable; third one is for clothing and footwear expenditure variable and the final one is for habitable area variable. For example, 0.6 which is that the subscript of 23 denotes second person in the third indicator which means food expenditures with fuzzy grade 0.6. After calculating indicators, it is crucial to combine these indicators in a sensible way to obtain a single indicator that provides information about the deprivation of the households. In the literature, there are many proposed ways of combining indicators to obtain a single indicator measuring deprivation of households, for example, weights can be given by experts or some calculations are made based on the proportion of poor in the population in terms of the given indicator. Here the method used in [4] is employed to calculate the weights. The weights have to satisfy some conditions: 120 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo and (5) In order to find the weights used in the calculation of fuzzy poverty index, the formula below is employed. (6) where denotes the fuzzy proportion of the poor persons according to indicator Weights related to indicators are given in Table 2. Then the indicator that measures poverty can be calculated as follows: (7) The last step to obtain fuzzy index of poverty is to find a way of incorporating indicators. In the literature, fuzzy index of poverty is derived as follows: (8) However, this is the case when the samples for all indicators are equal. In our calculations samples are not equal size so each corresponding mean for the indicator is calculated then mean of the means are derived based on the formula in (8). 4. EMPIRICAL STUDY AND CONCLUSION In this paper fuzzy index of poverty is calculated for the data which are gathered by the Survey of Households conducted by The State Institute of Statistics of The Republic of Tukey in 2003. There exist issues in both calculation and interpretation when both categoric and continuous variables are taken into account in measuring poverty in a single indicator. Therefore only continuous variables are employed when calculating fuzzy index of poverty. Based on the calculations, all information is summarized in Table 1. 121 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 1 Disposable Income 0.2219 Food Expenditure 0.2383 Clothe Expenditure 0.1219 Habitable Area 0.1843 FIP 0.1917 Table 2 Weights Disposable Income 0.32 Food Expenditure 0.35 Clothe Expenditure 0.14 Habitable Area 0.19 As seen from the membership function in (4), when the values get close to zero, it means that the personhas a membership grade close to zero is not considered poor in terms of the indicator. In this study the composite single index shows 0.1917 membership grade. If we examine each indicator carefully, food expenditure and disposable income indicators show relatively high membership grades, which denote deprivation of the households, when compared to cloth-footwear and habitable area indicators; especially cloth-footwear indicator is a surprising result. This can be explained by the fact that textile industry is the one of the most developed industry in Turkey and there is always excess supply which reduces prices. Also habitable area shows that despite of relatively poor conditions in poor houses; square meter area per person is wide. Although 25000 households are surveyed, available data for disposable income are 8421 households. This makes FPI reduce for disposable income. This might increase FIP. Also, we summarize the results obtained from the classic measure in Table 3. This work is the extension of the study conducted and presented in EUSFLAT-LFA 2005 in BarcelonaSpain. Table 3 Classic Poverty Measure Food Expenditure Poverty except food 0.2812 Relative Poverty 0.1551 REFERENCES 122 0.1290 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Bantilan, M.C.S, Bantilan F. T. and de Castro M. M., (1992). “Fuzzy Subset Theory in the Measurement of Poverty”, Journal of Philippine Development, Num: 34, Vol. XIX, pp 97127. Cerioli A., Zani S. (1990). “A Fuzzy Approach to the Measurement of Poverty”, Income and Wealth Distribution, Inequality and Poverty, in Dangum, C. and Zenga, M. (eds). Cheli, B., Lemmi, A. (1995). A Totally Fuzzy and Relative Approach to the Multi Dimensional analysis of Poverty, Economic Notes, vol 24, pp115- 134. Miceli, D., (1998). Measuring Poverty Using Fuzzy Sets, Discussion Paper no.38, NATSEM, University of Canberra. The State Institute of Statistic of The Republic of Turkey, Households Survey 2003. World Bank, “Development Reports”, Attacking poverty, World Bank 2000/2001 Washington, D.C. Zadeh A, Fuzzy sets, Information and Control 8 (1965) 338-353 The Importance Of Erp (Enterprise Resource Planning) Software And Choosing Criterias For Business Hakan Çetin1 ,Hakan Akar2 1Akdeniz Universiy, Faculty of Education Department of ComputerEducationandInstructionalTechnology 2Akdeniz University, Department of Informatics E-mails: hakanc@akdeniz.edu.tr, hakanakar@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract With the increase of competition and being used information technologies by business’ effectively, the software that organize flow of information and develop the interdivisional integration have increased. While this study is emphasizing the importance of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) software for business, reveals choosing criteria. In this study, firstly, for business ERP system’s basic features, modules and profits are discussed. In next parts, key considerations when choosing ERP software are emphasized and lastly discussed how to ERP system put out an approach for business. In consequence of the discussion, it is seen that Enterprise Resource Planning software for companies' internal control activities and interdepartmental integration is successful and necessary. Keywords: ERP, Information Technologies, Planning 123 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1160 Title A name given to the resource Comparison Study of Approaches to Measuring Poverty Implementing Fuzzy Set and Classic Set Using The Household Data of Turkey Author Author Alparslan , Abdurrahman Basaran Abstract A summary of the resource. Poverty is one of the issues several industrialized and developing countries encounter in the world. No country is exempt from this problem and its consequences. The top list item of the agendas of both countries and international agencies is related to diminishing poverty. Before taking action against it, countries and agencies need to measure poverty based on collected data. It is a sophisticated issue having several dimensions. So far measuring it with available data has resulted with indicators which show some deficiencies. When poverty is considered, it is a linguistic term and has a vague concept as mentioned in the theory of fuzzy set. Therefore, a new approach is proposed in the literature to examine it in order to overcome those deficiencies mentioned when classic tools are employed. On the other hand, fuzzy set theory is a mathematical tool used for linguistic calculations. For example, when said that income level is low. Actually everybody knows what it means. But what it means changes depending upon the perception of the person. Therefore, measuring low income is a problematic area. Fuzzy set theory enables practitioners to calculate those linguistic terms. In this study, the household data of Turkey of the year 2003 collected annually based on almost 25000 is used to calculate both classic poverty indicator(s) and fuzzy poverty indicator in order to compare those measures. In the end we will show that fuzzy poverty indicator can be comprehensive in some comparisons. Also, it provides more information in terms of understanding the concept of poverty Keywords: Poverty, fuzzy set, fuzzy index, Sustainable development Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/eca8177dfbdf91ea590519f3e5d808a0.pdf a3209db2b8bfa76fb7f0bc1585e347c5 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Organizational Culture and Change in Sarajevo Almira Kulovic International Burch University, Faculty of Management 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mail: almirakulovic@hotmail.com Abstract Main aim of this paper is to explain and analyze the importance of organizational culture in an organization, and the organizational change. Paper will define organizational culture, its characteristics, impacts and functions in an organization. Also, it will analyze the organizational change and the possibility of cultural change in an organization. There would be different opinions and arguments about this topic and also the example of Sarajevo company Elektropriveda will be presented. In this paper, both secondary and primary data will be used. Considering the case of Elektropriveda, primary data will be presented and used and secondary data will be presented through various definitions and theoretical part. Established organizational culture has a lot of impact on organization performance and development, and also on creating a competitive advantage of a company. It is very hard to achieve the organizational change especially in the organizations with the strong culture. Paper will try to answer on few questions such as is it possible to change organizational culture and in what ways, and if change happens is it possible to manage it and how? Keywords: Organizational culture, Organizational cultural change, resistance to change, competitive advantage, and uncertainty 1. INTRODUCTION Main aim and focus of this paper will be presenting the importance of organizational culture in an organization and evaluating the possibility of organizational change. It is a concept that serves companies to perform better and improve their outcomes. This paper examines the possibilities of changing the organizational culture and the barriers that aggravate the change. Main focus will be on difficulty of changing and managing the cultural change. The paper explains it all, with linking an examples with theory. 213 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2. ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE 2.1 Definition and explanation of the term In the recent years, the term organizational culture becomes very popular topic of huge interest among academics and practitioners. The concept of organizational culture is very complex and broad because it is not possible to put it in some firm boundaries or limits, but it is one of the most important aspects of an organization or company due to the fact that it facilitates adaptation to change and innovative conditions of society. It is also one of the main factors in determining the successfulness of the company, its competitive advantage and the overall results and profit. Due to enormous interest for organizational culture, the definition of it should be understood and explained in a very clear way. It cannot be defined so easily, but it is very visible. The most prominent and useful definition is given by Schein and he noted that organizational culture is: "A pattern of shared basic assumptions that the group learned as it solved its problems that has worked well enough to be considered valid and is passed on to new members as the correct way to perceive, think, and feel in relation to those problems." Organizational culture is basically set of same and shared beliefs and opinions among the organization's employees and it distinguishes one company from other companies, and it is generally recognized by its employees. It has an enormous impact on the behavior of organization's members and it is one of the main characteristics which organization values. Organizational culture actually brings people closer and it makes easier to conduct reconciliation of business and the workplace. The organizational culture which is on the high level is a subtle and sophisticated condition that certainly contributes to the increase in efficiency and effectiveness of the organization. Defining and creating good culture helps in predicting the company's success and position on a global market. There is a general consensus that culture is the main part of an organization and it has to fit into strategy of organization. So without a culture the company cannot have the effective strategy or the effective strategic goals. Different organizations have different organizational cultures which makes personality of the company very unique and stable. When it comes to external innovations and changes, the existence and the type of the organizational culture plays a significant role in habituating a change and determining a company's role in global market. It is very important to mention that managing the organizational cultural change is very important skill required by today's managers, leaders and the employees of the organization due to rapid changes that companies face. 2.2 Importance and Impact In the past 30 years, the term organizational culture is used to describe and analyze a human systems and their behavior. Organizational culture and its types, aspects and norms are seen as an important factor that affects the company's success, competitive advantage and performance. 214 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The set of integrated concepts becomes the manner or strategies through which an organization achieves its specific goals. It can therefore be postulated that an organization's collective culture influences both the attitudes and subsequent behaviors of its employees, as well as the level of performance the organization achieves. (Marcoulides and Heck, 1993) Therefore, it has become a key factor in the development of an organization or the company. Managing the organizational change can provide a foundation for competitive advantage. There are lot of reasons for the company to possess a culture, and due to globalization and increased competition, the need for organizational culture created an important step and skill for every organization that wish to go in the raising direction. A common hypothesis about this role suggests that if an organization possesses "strong culture" by exhibiting a wellintegrated and effective set of specific values, beliefs, and behavior patterns, then it will perform at a higher level of productivity (Dennison, 1984). A big number of members who accept the core values and if they posses greater commitment to those values, will result in a stronger organizational culture. There are lot of key factors that makes organizational culture the important term in organizational theories and development. The primary importance of organizational culture is improving the organizational performance. The cultural setting of the organization will affect the outcome of the methods and also the performance of the organization (Naor et al., 2008). It makes people or employees of the company as very important and empowers people to be innovative and to work together in order to achieve desired goals. Organizational culture determines the effectiveness, capacity and the organization's long term existence. It determines the relationship among internal and external environment of the company and the maintenance among them. One of the most important impacts of organizational culture is that it highly affects and contributes to the image or brand of the company and it creates energy among members of the organization to achieve desired outcome. Culture improves the stability of social system and it helps to hold the organization together, in the context of what employees should do and say. Organizational culture has a lot of impact on company's business strategy and its strategic goals. In order to determine its vision and mission, company must look in its internal environment and culture in order to implement the certain strategy. In other words, what the companies do is determined by the culture. 3. ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE 3.1 Factors causing change In today's world, the organizations face a dynamic and rapid change. The increased competition, globalization and the opportunity for more growth brought a wide variety of expectations and needs from the organizations. This requires these organizations to adapt. The ability to manage a change has become a very important and in some way required skill for managers, leaders and employees of the organizations. To increase effectiveness, improve efficiency, gain market share, or simplify the organizational design, managers are constantly creating new programs, streamlining procedures, evaluating proposed courses of action, and encountering new opportunities in their organizations' environments. All of these activities 215 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo involve change. (Glick et al. 1990)There are lot of reasons and factors that cause change and adaptation of the companies but the most important and prominent ones are to be explained in further text. Technology is one of the main causes of change in companies. Technology is changing organizations and jobs. The improvement and advances in technology have a lot of impact on the employees work. It is foundational thing for almost every organization, and it is considered as one of the main ingredients for company to be successful and competitive. The technological networks or computer networks are changing and shaping the whole industries due to need of having access to many specters and aspects in a market. Nowadays with the complex challenges that companies are faced, the economic changes or so called economic shocks play a major role in causing a change. The reasons for this are the creation of new businesses, declining or increasing of stock market and of course the innovation. As we live in no certain world, the so called economic shocks are constantly imposing the changes on the organizations. Another one factor of causing the changes is competition. As we live in a fast environment, there are lots of competitors in a global perspective. Global means that competitors can came from every side and every corner of the world, so the organizations has to be very quick and fast in order to defend themselves from competitors with a new innovative products and services. Social trends are also one of the concepts that impose change on organizations. It is widely known that people are get used on buying through Internet, so the companies have to invest not just in regular commercials and marketing, they also have to advertise through Internet or some social networks. All this can develop and cause resistance to change by employees of the company but also by managers and leaders. It is widely known that the organizations and its members resist change. It can be very beneficial and positive for the company because it proves that company has a strong organizational culture, behavior and norms that respects. Resistance to change gives stability but also can cause conflicted sides due to adaptation and the changing nature of the workforce. The reasons for resistance to change are usually based on the individual characteristics and security. It is very hard to change the habits of people or their personality in a way. When people in the organization are confronted with the change, they fell as their security is harmed due to reason that change always leads us into unknown situations. The uncertainty may be one of the main reasons to resist a change. Uncertainty is an aversive state that motivates strategies aimed at reducing or managing it (Bordia et al. 2004). It can be very hard to successfully achieve organizational change because it is similar to changing person's habits and personality. As it is mentioned it is very hard to manage change, but even harder to manage cultural change in the organization. 3.3 Managing Organizational Cultural Change 216 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Why do organizations are forced to change and transform its culture? This situation is most likely to occur when the organization's environment is dynamic. When the company is surrounded by rapid change and the environment is faced with fast change, the organization's entrenched culture may no longer be appropriate. The organization can face the lack of ability to respond on changing process and changing its cultural environment. According to Cummings and Worley (2005), organizational culture cannot be changed easily because the employees need time to acquaint themselves to a new culture. It is hard to change personality and habits of employees and it would be much harder if the employees are not innovative and conductive to change. Although it is very hard to change culture of an organization, it is not impossible. There are certain plans for implementing the change of the organizational change. First of all, the certain approaches and strategies have to be identified to identify the change. Second action would be developing the teams in order to implement identified actions. Plans have to be documented and when change is visible, managing change is the next process. The focus question here is if the organizational culture is eventually changed, can it be easily managed? Even though there is lot of reasons why cultural change is so difficult process, it is not impossible act. Effective cultural change is possible if certain conditions are implemented. According to Stephen and Timothy (2007) cultural change is most likely to take when most or all of the following four conditions exist: the existence of dramatic crises, turnover in the leadership, young and small organization and weak culture. It is very important to explain these four conditions in detail because cultural change is a lengthy process and it cannot be done in couple of a months, it can take even few years. It is widely known that some executives create a crisis to actually encourage a change of culture. Also crises could be financial, technological or losing major competitor. Turnover in leadership can be very efficient in an introducing and managing new culture. If someone from outside comes to be new leader of the company, it is more likely that new values, norms and beliefs will be established. If the organization is young and small, there is a huge opportunity and possibility that cultural change will happen and the company can easily share and manage its values if the company is small. If the company has a weak culture, it is more possible to change it than to change the strong one. Changing culture is a very complex and hard process; it is lengthy process which takes a large period of time and in which managers and employees have to be very careful in order to continue with company’s normal functioning after the change is done. 3.4 Organizational Cultural Change in Sarajevo Sarajevo is a capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a very distinct population within it. Sarajevo companies possess a very strong organizational culture with committed employees to their norms, values, beliefs and behaviors. Sarajevo market is consisted of many domestic and international companies. 217 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The example of the domestic or state owned company in BiH is Elektroprivreda. It is very successful company, with a high budget and the great opportunities and possibilities for its employees. It is exposed to change, because it is on international market, but the company is still working under old system and does not give the prior interest toward changing their organizational culture. They are satisfied with the existing profit that they operate, and its employees are not prepared for cultural change. Why? It is known that 30 or 40 years ago, socialism system was represented, and still the organization is working by the old system, values and norms. The employees are very much resistant to change, because the older generations are not used to technology usage and advancement, they are not prepared to a new system and culture after many and many years of working under one certain system and rules. Employees are used to strong rules and regulations, and are not used to modern system leading of the company. In Elektroprivreda there are not any training courses for its employees, there are not any kind of yield to its employees, and strong culture of strong rules and regulations is represented. Individual based resistance to change is also included, because it is hard to change the strong habits of an employee who feel uncertain to go with the change, because change is leading them into uncertain future and situation in which they never were, and never experienced. 4. CONCLUSION In order to understand the nature of organizational culture and its change it is important to evaluate all the positive and negative sides that organizational cultural change brings and to analyze all the important aspects and characteristics of organizational culture. This paper gave the explanations of all important definitions of organizational culture, its characteristics and possible outcomes. Also it presented the impact and importance of organizational cultural change on companies. It can be said that organizational culture is one of the most important things that the organization values and change of culture is very difficult especially in the organizations with a strong culture. However, even though it is difficult to change the culture of an organization, paper also gives reasons, ways and arguments toward the possibility of such kind of act. Although it is difficult, it is not impossible. To support the argument that it is difficult to change a strong culture in companies, paper presents the example Elektroprivreda as of one of the most successful companies in Sarajevo and the overall BiH. It is presented that employees in Elektroprivreda are resistant to change and that they feel uncertain considering the cultural change, which leads to lack of security among employees and uncertainty to go in unknown situations and business. However, organizational culture is a significant factor considering organizational performance and its outcomes, and one of the most important ingredients toward creating and sustaining a competitive advantage of a company. If the company desires to compete on a global stage against all innovative and new offerings from their competitors it is important to have strong organizational culture and ability to change it. Even though it is difficult to achieve this goal, and even though rapid changes are reshaping the entire industries, 218 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo companies should evaluate different planes of implementing changes, and try to adapt to a new environment in order to stay stable, competitive and successful on global market. REFERENCES Bordia Prashant, Hobman Elizabeth, Jones Elizabeth, Gallois Cindy, Callan J. Victor (2004), Uncertainty during Organizational Change: Types, Consequences, and Management Strategies. Journal of Business and Psychology, Vol. 18, No. 4, Springer Cummings and Worley (2005), Organization Development and Change, 8th Ed., Thomson South-Western, USA. (491-492) Dennison, D. (1984), "Bringing Corporate Culture to the Bottom Line," Organizational Dynamics, 13, 2, 5-22. Fuller, B., K. Wood Glick H. William, Huber P. George, Miller C. Chet, Doty D. Harold, Sutcliffe M. Kathleen (1990). Studying Changes in Organizational Design and Effectiveness: Retrospective Event Histories and Periodic Assessments. Organization Science, Vol. 1, No. 3, 293-312, INFORMS Stable Hofstede Geert. (1980). Culture's Consequences. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. Marcoulides A. George and Heck H. Ronald (May, 1993). Organizational Culture and Performance: Proposing and Testing a Model. Organization Science, Vol. 4, No. 2, 209-225, INFORMS Stable Naor Michael, Susan M. Goldstein, Kevin W. Linderman, and Roger G. Schroeder (2008). The Role of Culture as a Driver of Quality Management and Performance: Infrastructure Versus Core Quality Practices. Decision Sciences, 671-702. Robbins P. Stephen, Judge A. Timothy (2007). Essentials of Organizational Behavior, Prentice Hall; 9th edition, 253- 257 Stanley J. David, Meyer P. John, Topolnytsky Laryssa (2005). Employee Cynicism and Resistance to Organizational Change, Journal Business and Psycology, Vol.19, No. 4, 429459 Schein Edgar, Organizational Culture Definition, URL http://www.organizationalculture101.com/definition-of-organizational-culture.html 219 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1116 Title A name given to the resource Organizational Culture and Change in Sarajevo Author Author Almira, Kulovic Abstract A summary of the resource. Main aim of this paper is to explain and analyze the importance of organizational culture in an organization, and the organizational change. Paper will define organizational culture, its characteristics, impacts and functions in an organization. Also, it will analyze the organizational change and the possibility of cultural change in an organization. There would be different opinions and arguments about this topic and also the example of Sarajevo company Elektropriveda will be presented. In this paper, both secondary and primary data will be used. Considering the case of Elektropriveda, primary data will be presented and used and secondary data will be presented through various definitions and theoretical part. Established organizational culture has a lot of impact on organization performance and development, and also on creating a competitive advantage of a company. It is very hard to achieve the organizational change especially in the organizations with the strong culture. Paper will try to answer on few questions such as is it possible to change organizational culture and in what ways, and if change happens is it possible to manage it and how? Keywords: Organizational culture, Organizational cultural change, resistance to change, competitive advantage, and uncertainty Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/38362b4b9fab8161e5da8597e31a7de8.pdf aad0288ae4061b9c627a3b20450da342 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Women’s Environmental Network (WEN) 2007, Women’s Manifesto on Climate Change Wiley 2009, Social sustainability. [Online] Wiley. http://eu.wiley.com/legacy/wileychi/egec/ [Accessed 20 April 2010]. Available at: WWF-UK, 2006, Let Them Eat Cake: Satisfying the New Consumer Appetite for Responsible Brand Wiley 2009, Social sustainability. [Online] Wiley. http://eu.wiley.com/legacy/wileychi/egec/ [Accessed 20 April 2010]. Available at: WBCSD 2008, Sustainable Consumption Facts and Trends, [Online] Available at: http: //www.wbcsd.org/templated/ TemplateWBSCD/layoutap?MendID=1 [Accessed 25 April 2010]. WWF-UK, 2006, Let Them Eat Cake: Satisfying the New Consumer Appetite for Responsible Brand Persuade to Buy: Implications for Online Advertising Alma Jeftić1, Dženan Đonko International University of Sarajevo1, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mail: ajeftic@ius.edu.ba Abstract The aim of this article is to explore the development of a variety of online advertising tools and the implications that the characteristics of these tools have on their effectiveness, as well as to discover how important are the amount and nature of cognitive processing that a person does about a persuasive message in order to determine the kind of persuasion that occurs. Even though advertisements are a necessary and important component of the Internet, most users are merely concerned with the quality of online experience and do not appreciate pop-up ads. However, the majority of previous researches in the area of online advertising lack in application of psychological theories of information processing and attitude change. This article seeks to explore the connection between cognitive processing and consumers' online experience as well as behaviour change in order to provide the most important factors that attract customers. The study 18 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo is designed in qualitative research approach in which literature review method has been chosen. The overview of contemporary researches in the area of online advertising will be provided together with the analysis of psychological aspects of information processing. Moreover, this study aims to obtain deeper understanding of elaboration likelihood model with the special emphasize on two routes an individual will take in a persuasive situation and its application to online advertisements. It is concluded that cognitive aspects of information processing as well as elaboration likelihood model need to be taken into account when creating online advertisements, especially banners and pop-up ads. Also, the list of major factors that attract customers' and should be elaborated in each advertisement is result of this qualitative research study. Keywords: online advertising; persuasion; cognitive processing; banners; pop-up ads; elaboration likelihood model; consumer behaviour; perceived intrusiveness. 1. INTRODUCTION Even though advertisements are a necessary and important component of the Internet, most users are merely concerned with the quality of online experience and do not appreciate pop-up ads. Recent researches that explored forced viewing of online advertisements provided an understanding of how consumers experience forced exposure situations in interactive environment and also shed some light on feelings of irritation and avoidance as two major consequences of perceived intrusiveness. However, the majority of previous researches in the area of online advertising lack in application of psychological theories of information processing and attitude change. This article seeks to explore the connection between cognitive processing and consumers' online experience as well as behaviour change in order to provide the most important factors that attract customers. Moreover, this study aims to obtain deeper understanding of elaboration likelihood model with the special emphasize on two routes an individual will take in a persuasive situation and its application to online advertisements. Two factors that most influence which route an individual will take in a persuasive situation are motivation and ability. Which route is taken is also determined by the extent of elaboration. Under high elaboration, a given variable can either serve as an argument, or as a biasing factor, while under conditions of low elaboration, a given variable can act as a peripheral cue. The persuasion is either increased or decreased depending on the strength of the argument presented. Also, variables can affect the extent to which a person has confidence in, phenomena known as self-validation role. By linking missing parts together, this article connects the achievements of marketing research, information science and psychology in order to explore the role and impact of online advertising on consumers' behaviour. Also, the list of major factors that attract customers' and should be elaborated in each advertisement is result of this qualitative research study. 19 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2. METHOD The study is designed in qualitative research approach in which literature review method has been chosen. The overview of contemporary researches in the area of online advertising will be provided together with the analysis of psychological aspects of information processing. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1 Online Advertising: When, Why, How According to the psychologist Carl Jung, every individual has a primary mode of operation in each of the following four categories (Brook, 2000): 1. 2. 3. 4. our flow of energy how we take in information how we prefer to make decisions the basic day-to-day lifestyle we prefer. Within each of these categories, people tend to be either extraverted or introverted, sensing or intuitive, thinking or feeling, judging or perceiving. Advertisers should target their ads to appeal to people with specific personality traits. There are different types of creative advetising that can be used in order to attract consumers' attention. The most popular are: 1. banner ads - attract customers’ attention through color, graphics, and, sometimes, animation; 2. e-mail massages - companies use the e-mail model of advertising to cross-sell and up-sell their products, to try to acquire potential new customers, to persuade existing customers to buy again, to enhance customer loyalty, and to build long-lasting relationships with customers; 3. interstitial ads - ads appear automatically as customers move between the pages of a Web site, making customers wait for another page to load; 4. online directories - allows companies to gain visibility through online directories that help customers find them easily, using a search engine; 5. pay-per-click ads – since advertisers pay only when customers click their ads, the companies that display these ads benefit only when customers click them, and many companies depend on this form of advertising to generate revenues; 6. pop-up ads - appear in a separate window, therefore they interrupt the flow of customers’ current tasks. The only way to move ahead is to close the window in which the ad appears or click the window containing the site that caused the ad to appear; 7. pop-down banner ads - appear beneath the content on a Web page, on a banner at the bottom of the page, so customers have to look at and click these ads to get rid of them; 8. search engine optimization - seeks to promote a company’s Web site by increasing its visibility on search engine results pages; 9. sky scrapers - ads have the same function and properties as banner ads, but the rectangular boxes containing them have a vertical rather than a horizontal layout. These ads usually appear on the right side of a page and are linked to the advertiser’s Web site; 20 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 10. social networking - works best when it results from word-of-mouth or when a group exists for people who want to know what is happening with a company or product; 11. sponsorship - companies can sponsor a Web site or a certain section of a Web site where their ads appear. Companies must also begin using advertising techniques that evoke an emotional response from customers and that can be obtained through strategic planning and development of new marketing touchpoints. Behavioral advertising observes customers’ behavior as they move from one Web page or site to another (Sutherland&Sylvester, 2000). When following this advertising model, companies target ads to specific individuals, based on each customer’s past surfing behavior. Because behavioral advertising tracks customers’ interests, there is an increased likelihood that they will want the product or service advertised and be motivated to click an ad (Sutherland&Sylvester, 2000). With this method, different customers do not see the same ads on a Web page. There are several factors that help people to identify an ad that would bring them benefit, therefore these variable factors should be motivating enough to ensure people act on the information. Table 1 provides a summary of these advertising approaches and the factors that attract particular customer to particular ad. Table 1: Factors that attract customers to ad (Sutherland&Sylvester, 2000) TYPE OF AD BEHAVIORAL CONTENT LURE CONTEXTUAL APPROACH CREATIVE ATTRACTION 21 HIGH ATTRACTION Targets individual customers Based on context and customers’ needs Motivates customers to process information Appealing to customers’ emotions Moves customers to their next steps Makes customers want to know more Based on customers’ needs Culturally significant Blends in with surrounding content - MODERATE ATTRACTION - - Rarely used, but when used, is highly attractive Provides a different flavor Moves away from the mundane associations of advertising �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo HUMOR INFORMATION INTERACTIVITY GEOGRAPHY PRODUCT PLACEMENT SPECIAL OFFER TARGET AUDIENCE VISUAL LURE 22 - Based on context and customers’ needs Relevant to customers Motivates customers to process information An excess of information can add to customers’ cognitive load Gets customers’ attention Engages customers’ motor and cognitive skills Motivates customers to process information - Non-intrusive Subliminal information processing affects the psyche positively Shows the product in a reallife scenario Most persuasive Motivates customers to process information Based on customers’ needs Based on customers’ needs Culturally significant Blends in with surrounding content Makes a good first impression Customers subjectively perceive creativity Rarely used, but when used, gets customers’ attention Provides a different flavor Moves away from the mundane associations of advertising Customers subjectively perceive humor - Based on customers’ needs Culturally significant Blends in with surrounding content For a specific audience; ignores the rest - - - - �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo WELCOMING IMAGERY Gets customers’ attention Emotionally appealing Motivates customers to process information Warm imagery attracts customers’ attention Emotionally appealing Motivates customers to process information - It is evident that information processing, cognitive functioning and emotional responses have an important role in shaping consumers' responses. Therefore, psychological aspects of advertising need to be explored briefly. 3.2 Psychology of Online Advertising The physiological changes that accompany customers’ emotional responses to advertisements determine their next action, therefore the context in which an advertisement appears determines whether the ad constitutes an effective call to action. Depending on what advertisers want to convey particular advertisement type will be chosen. While the advertising approaches that typically result in moderate attraction do affect customers, their perception of them can be subjective (Schuman&Thorson, 1999). Effective communication must begin by obtaining the attention of the consumer. Then, the consumer must process the information carried in the advertisement. Such processing of information may be followed by an evaluation of the information, the source of the information, and ultimately the desirability of any actions suggested by the communication. This evaluation process may, in turn, give rise to the formation of attitudes, the development of intentions for future action, and, eventually, an action. Different characteristics of an advertisement have effects at different points in this hierarchy. Recent researches have proven that pop-up ads elicit orienting responses (OR) (Diao&Sundar, 2004). The psychological data also revealed the superior effect of pop-up windows over the commonly used banners with respect to ad recall. This is consistent with contemporary theories of OR and visual attention,which suggest that people tend to orient automatically toward those mediated messages that are novel and unexpected in the immediate visual domain (Diao&Sundar, 2004). The larger implication of this finding is that formal features of media messages can evoke involuntary attention, ORs in particular, not only in traditional media as has been previously demonstrated but also in the new Web environment. A recent study by Lang, Borse, et al. (2002) emphasizes the importance of considering content when it found that not only animated banners but also textual warnings about one’s immediate environment shown on a computer screen (e.g., There is someone behind you!) elicit ORs. As for the effects on memory, it was found that banner ads had higher ad recognition than pop-up ads, quite contrary to expectations derived from limited-capacity theory (Diao&Sundar, 2004). 23 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Pop-ups may not only orient users’ attention to a specific location on the screen and thus influence which stories will be processed and which will not (Johnson & Proctor, 2004), but they may also elicit frustration and therefore induce a shift in the locus of attention from a global towards a local type of processing (Clore, Gasper, & Garvin, 2001). The absence of new modalities from informational Websites or the mere presence of a text-heavy site may increase frustration, and a relatively low number of pop-ups can perhaps serve to provide a release. It is needed to consider previous experience with computers and Internet along with other media experiences as contributing factors that can provide a deeper understanding of this proposition. 3.3 Elaboration Likelihood Model The elaboration likelihood model is a theory that states that the amount and nature of thinking that a person does about a persuasive message is a very important determinant of the kind of persuasion that occurs. According to this model there are two routes to persuasion: peripheral route that does not require full cognitive processing and relies on a simple, low-effort decision strategy such as source attractiveness or message length, and the central route that involves carefully thinking about and thoroughly examining information relevant to a topic. The extent of elaboration determines which route will be taken. Motivational factors include (among others) the personal relevance of the message topic, accountability, and a person's need for cognition, their innate desire to enjoy thinking (Petty, Briñol & Tormala, 2000). Ability factors include the availability of cognitive resources or relevant knowledge needed to carefully scrutinize the arguments. The subject's general education level, as well as their education and experience with the topic at hand greatly affect their ability to be persuaded. Since the pop-up ads are not strong enough to catch consumers’ attention, advertisers develop pop-under ads that remain hidden until the user have not completed her/his task on the main website. Therefore, the pop-under ads remain visible only after user has completed her/his job and become able to process the advertisement. By using pop-under ads, advertisers hope to take advantage of the permanent staying power of centrally processed pop-up ads. 3.4 Practical Implications From a practical standpoint, the findings indicate that Web-site developers and marketing practitioners should not be discouraged by the potential of pop-up windows to cause annoyance and frustration, but carefully take advantage of this formal feature in catching online viewers’ attention and, hence, increasing brand awareness. Although awareness is generally considered by advertisers to be positively related to purchase intention, it might also motivate a negative behavioral response. At least one recent industry study has made the claim that online users actively penalize brands that use pop-ups and mistrust the companies that use and host pop-ups (Best, 2004). Another practical implication for advertising industry is to develop more innovative types of advertising. The lack of animation effect and the relatively inferior effect of banner ads on OR demonstrate the necessity for exploring more-creative executional cues to increase advertising effectiveness accruing from novelty effects. The pop-under ads should be concidered in order to fill in the gap of peripherally processed pop-up ads, hence the purpose of the elaboration likelihood model cannot be neglected. 24 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4. CONCLUSION In this study, the overview of contemporary online advertising techniques is provided together with users’ psychological reaction towards them. It is concluded that cognitive aspects of information processing as well as elaboration likelihood model need to be taken into account when creating online advertisements, especially banners and pop-up ads. These results provide encouragement to develop and evaluate pop-under ads, as one of the effective advertising tools. REFERENCES Best, J. (2004). Pop-ups “commercial suicide” for firms. Retrieved April 20, 2012, from http://www.zdnet.co.uk/news/workspace-it/2004/02/25/pop-ups-commercial-suicide-for-firms40145254/?s_cid=938 Brooke, R. (2000). Pathways into the Jungian World: Phenomenology and Analytical Psychology. New York: Routledge. Clore, G. L., Gasper, K., & Garvin, E. (2001). Affect as information. In J. P. Forgas, (Ed.), Handbook of Affect and Social Cognition (pp. 121-144). Mahwah, NJ.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Diao, F., Sundar, S.S. (2004). Orienting Response and Memory for Advertisements: Exploring Effects of Pop-Up Window and Animation. Communication Research, 31(5), 537-567. Johnson, A., & Proctor, R. W. (2004). Attention: Theory and Practice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Lang, A., Borse, J., Wise, K., & David, P. (2002). Captured by the World Wide Web: Orienting to structural and content features of computer-presented information. Communication Research, 29, 215-245. Petty, R. E., Briñol, P., & Tormala, Z. L. (2002). Thought Confidence as a Determinant of Persuasion: The Self-validation Hypothesis. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 82, 722741. Schumann, D.W., & Thprson, E. (1999). Advertising and the World Wide Web. Philadelphia, PA: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Sutherland, M., & Sylvester, A.K. (2000). Advertising and the Mind of the Consumer: What Works, What Doesn’t, and Why. Sydney, Australia: Allen & Unwin. 25 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1359 Title A name given to the resource Persuade to Buy: Implications for Online Advertising Author Author Alma , Jeftić Abstract A summary of the resource. The aim of this article is to explore the development of a variety of online advertising tools and the implications that the characteristics of these tools have on their effectiveness, as well as to discover how important are the amount and nature of cognitive processing that a person does about a persuasive message in order to determine the kind of persuasion that occurs. Even though advertisements are a necessary and important component of the Internet, most users are merely concerned with the quality of online experience and do not appreciate pop-up ads. However, the majority of previous researches in the area of online advertising lack in application of psychological theories of information processing and attitude change. This article seeks to explore the connection between cognitive processing and consumers' online experience as well as behaviour change in order to provide the most important factors that attract customers. The study is designed in qualitative research approach in which literature review method has been chosen. The overview of contemporary researches in the area of online advertising will be provided together with the analysis of psychological aspects of information processing. Moreover, this study aims to obtain deeper understanding of elaboration likelihood model with the special emphasize on two routes an individual will take in a persuasive situation and its application to online advertisements. It is concluded that cognitive aspects of information processing as well as elaboration likelihood model need to be taken into account when creating online advertisements, especially banners and pop-up ads. Also, the list of major factors that attract customers' and should be elaborated in each advertisement is result of this qualitative research study. Keywords: online advertising; persuasion; cognitive processing; banners; pop-up ads; elaboration likelihood model; consumer behaviour; perceived intrusiveness. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1165 Title A name given to the resource Utilising Information Systems for Measuring Impact on Social Sustainability: Survey of Microcredit Organisations in Bosnia and Herzegovina Author Author Alica , Pandzo Abstract A summary of the resource. Microfinance has been used as a tool for social sustainability and development since the 1970s. In microfinance, assessment of social sustainability is often conducted through client impact monitoring. This study explores the impact measurement practices of microcredit organisations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and their use of information systems in this process. We draw on the latest trends of using shared measurement systems for impact monitoring, to point out the potential of using such systems to achieve sustainable impact on wider social issues in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This paper outlines the roles and responsibilities that different stakeholders should play in the system development process. Keywords: microfinance, microcredit, Bosnia and Herzegovina, social impact, information systems, ICT, shared measurement systems. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f313800370077bf6c93cb34a4c7c1764.pdf 188822bd692fb155b5fd175fcf4cae38 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo İbn Batuta Seyahatnamesi Seçmeler, Çev. İsmet Parmaksızoğlu, MEB Yay, İstanbul, 1993. www.sebilay.org.tr, (25.04.2012). Tuhfat-Al-Vasayâ. Analysis of Factors Affecting the Life Satisfaction of Household Heads Living in Urban Areas: A Case of West Mediterranean Region Ali Riza Aktas1, Burhan Ozkan2, Onur Oku1 1Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business, Economics and Finance Dept. 2Akdeniz University, Faculty of Agriculture, Agriculture Economics Dept. E-mails: alirizaaktas@akdeniz.edu.tr,bozkan@akdeniz.edu.tr,onuroku@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract Since the early ages of history, individuals have sought life satisfaction and considered it as a life goal. Because of this fact, the term life satisfaction has kept its importance in time and has been the focus of many studies. Life satisfaction is seen as a positive value gained by an individual’s own evaluation of the quality of life as a whole, therefore may be described as subjective. Nevertheless, studies made about life satisfaction use both subjective and objective indicators. Life satisfaction is partially conceptualized as the result of satisfaction related to various life fields such as work, family, health, etc. and it is assumed that the effects of environmental conditions highly help satisfaction related with life fields. When studies about life satisfaction are taken into consideration, it is notable that the term job satisfaction is generally emphasized. However, studies show that job satisfaction can explain only a few of the changes in life satisfaction. In this study, it is aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads by using data from questionnaires and Logit model. “Unclustered Single-Stage Simple Random Probability Sampling Method” was used to apply the questionnaires to 490 household heads living in city centers of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur. In order to determine the probability of whether the household heads were satisfied with their lives or not, explanatory variables oriented to the current perceptions of household heads were included to the model in the study in addition to the demographic variables. Demographic variables were included to the model as the dummy 189 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo variable. Logit model was estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. According to the results of the analysis, life satisfaction of the household heads decreased with the increase of the size of the city. Similarly, increase in education level also decreased the probability of life satisfaction of the household heads. In addition, household heads with high income levels were happier than the ones with lower income. Similarly, if the spouse of the household head is either healthy, satisfied from job, or is a house wife, satisfied from marriage, then life satisfaction is determined to be higher than the household heads without the aforementioned spouse characteristics. Keywords: Satisfaction, Life Satisfaction, Household Head, Logit Model, West Mediterranean Region. 1. INTRODUCTION Life satisfaction, in its general sense, refers to the satisfaction felt by one with regard to his/her own life (Keser, 2005). In other words, it relates to which extent the person is pleased with the life he/she has (Guler and Emec, 2006). Life satisfaction is the emotional response of the person against the life defined as work, leisure and other non-work time and expresses a general attitude towards life (Dikmen, 1995; Keser, 2005). Life satisfaction is defined as “the positive perception of one’s own life according to the criteria determined by himself/herself” and as the conscious and cognitive perceptions of the person with respect to the quality of his/her own life (Gilman and Huebner, 2000). Life satisfaction is also described as the positive value obtained when the individual evaluates the quality of his/her life as a whole (Ozdevecioğlu and Aktas, 2007). Therefore, it is possible to say that life satisfaction is subjective in essence as it is the product of the evaluation conducted by the individual with regard to his/her own life. However, both subjective and objective indicators are employed in the studies relating to life satisfaction (Cetin et al., 2003). Objective indicators are related to external conditions such as income level, accommodation conditions and quality of such conditions, crime rates and accessibility of health services. Subjective indicators include personal emotions of the individual with regard to his/her life conditions (Gilman and Huebner, 2000). Life satisfaction is partially conceptualized as a result of the satisfaction in various spheres of life such as work, family and health and it is assumed that the impacts of environmental conditions on the life satisfaction substantially contribute to the satisfaction concerning the spheres of life (Rode, 2004). Life satisfaction demonstrates the result obtained from the comparison of the expectations of the individual and the actual situation and generally includes the entire life of the individual as well as the various dimensions of that life; that is, it expresses the satisfaction generally felt for the individual’s whole life rather than a certain situation (Sener, 2009). In the studies 190 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo concerning life satisfaction, it is remarkable that job satisfaction is generally emphasized regarding life satisfaction. Considering the fact that individuals in today’s world spend most of their time in the workplace, it may seem reasonable to accept the assumption that the life satisfaction of the individual is substantially affected by job satisfaction. Nevertheless, studies reveal that job satisfaction may explain approximately 5%-10% of the shifts in life satisfaction (Uyguc et al., 1998). While there are different views on the relation between life satisfaction and job satisfaction and on the direction of such relation, it is notable that no conclusive results could be obtained regarding whether the relation between the two variables is positive or negative or whether there exists a relation between them although many studies were conducted on life satisfaction-job satisfaction. (Uyguc et al., 1998). Considering the definitions regarding life satisfaction, it is possible to say that there exist many factors apart from job satisfaction that determine and affect the life satisfaction of individuals. It was found that life satisfaction is associated with factors such as possessing a meaningful life, enjoying life and having plenty of pursuits in life (Guler and Emec, 2006:131). On the other hand, factors including social connections, sexual activity, success, physical activity, interest in nature, reading or listening to music, nutrition or drink consumption make positive affective contributions to life satisfaction (Dockery, 2003). Some studies in the literature put forth that age, stress, physical health, life style and personality structure are among the basic determinants of life satisfaction (Chow, 2005). A consensus does not exist in the literature regarding the influence of income level on life satisfaction. Some studies emphasize the importance of the quality of social relations and relative insignificance of income on satisfaction. On the other hand, however, some other studies conclude that the income effect is significant for the level of life satisfaction (Dockery, 2003). This research studies the satisfaction level of household heads. City centres of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur were chosen as the research field and it was aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors that affect the satisfaction levels of household heads with the help of Logit model using the data obtained from questionnaire surveys conducted with household heads. 2. MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY Main material of this study is the cross-sectional data obtained through questionnaire survey method from household heads living in the West Mediterranean Region urban area (AntalyaIsparta-Burdur). Furthermore, national and international studies, publications, statistics and reports prepared by various institutions and organizations concerning the research subject constitute other materials of this study. As to the determination of sample size, the study employed the “Unclustered Single-Stage Simple Random Sampling Method”, which is the most preferred method in consumption studies. Questionnaire surveys were conducted to 490 household heads. Ratios of households 191 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo of each province to the total number of households were taken into account in the distribution of the calculated sample size to the provinces. In this study, social and economic factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads living in the urban centres of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur were analyzed using the Logit model. Dependent variable in the Logit model is discrete and the estimated probability values vary between 0 and 1. Another method that may be employed for this study is the Probit model. The basic discrepancy between the Logit and Probit models stems from the difference in assumptions regarding the probability distributions of the models. Though, no significant difference exists between the results obtained through these models (Green, 2002). On the other hand, the use of Logit model was preferred in this study as it is accepted that independent variables explain dependent variable better in the Logit model (Amemiya, 1983). The Logit model that is based on cumulative logistic probability function is expressed as follows (Gujarati, 2001): Pi  E (Y  1|X i )     X i Pi  E (Yi  1|X i )  1 1  e  (   X i ) 1  1  e  Zi [1] In the equation, Z i    X i where;  : constant,  : parameters to be estimated for each explanatory variable,  i : ith independent variable. P Equation [1] is named as the logistic distribution function and i denotes the probability of occurrence of the relevant incident. It becomes either zero or one as the result of the binary selection in the form of Yes/No. Z denotes the explanatory variables vector included in the model, whereas  and  denote the model parameters to be estimated. When the equation above is rearranged and natural logarithm of both sides of the equation is taken, the following equation is derived: 192 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo  P  Li  Ln i   Z i    1 X1  2 X 2  .........  n X n    1  Pi  [2] Z  Dependent variable in this regression model i expresses the natural logarithmic value of the ratio of choosing a certain option to choosing none. In other words, coefficients obtained from the Logit model expresses the probability of preferring an incident to not preferring it. “  ” was added to the equation as the error term of the model. As the dependent variable in this study, household heads who are satisfied with their lives as a whole are accepted as 1 and household heads that are included in other options than being satisfied are accepted as 0. In the determination of probabilities of household heads to be and not to be satisfied with their lives, demographic variables as well as explanatory variables regarding the current perception of household heads were included in the model. Demographic variables were included in the model as dummy variables. “I” variable represents the income group the household head belongs to, whereas “PR” and “EL” variables represent the province and educational level of the household head. Moreover, “HWS” variable represent the satisfaction felt by the household head for the housewife status of his spouse and “JS” variable represents the general job satisfaction level of the household head. Similarly, “HS” variable represents the satisfaction of the household head for his health status while “MS” variable represents the satisfaction level of the household head for his marriage. Factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads living in urban areas are analyzed employing the Logit model. Here, the model in equation 2 is reexpressed according to the said explanatory variables. YM i    1IL1   2 IL2   3 ED1   4 ED2   5G1   6G 2   7 EM  8 SM  9 IM  10 EVM  ei [3] Codes regarding dependent and independent variables used in the Logit analysis are provided in Table 1. Logit model was estimated in Eviews 5.0 software employing the Maximum Likelihood Method. One of the most significant advantages of using this method is that the estimated parameters are consistent and efficient (Pindyck and Rubinfeld, 1991). 193 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 1. Variables Used in the Logit Model and Their Definitions Dependent Variable LSi 1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his life, otherwise=0 Independent Variables PR1 1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Burdur, otherwise=0 PR2 1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Isparta, otherwise=0 PR3 1 if the household head resides in the urban centre of Antalya, otherwise=0 (reference class) EL1 1 if the household head has an education level of primary education or lower, otherwise=0 EL 2 1 if the household head has an education level of high school or equivalent, otherwise=0 EL3 1 if the household head has an education level of college or higher, otherwise=0 (reference class) I1 1 if the household head has a total income lower than TL1250, otherwise=0 I2 1 if the household head has a total income between TL1250 and TL2500, otherwise=0 I3 1 if the household head has a total income higher than TL2500, otherwise=0 (reference class) HWS 1 if the spouse is housewife, otherwise=0 HS 1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his health status, otherwise=0 JS 1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his job, otherwise=0 MS 1 if the household head is generally satisfied with his marriage, otherwise=0 194 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Descriptive statistics regarding the data compiled from 490 household heads used in the analyses are provided. It demonstrates that 16% of household heads reside in Burdur, 18% in Isparta and 66% in Antalya. 39% of the household heads who participated in the research were found to have an educational level of college or higher, whereas 38% have an educational level of high school or equivalent and 23% have an educational level lower than high school or equivalent. 21% of household heads are included in the lowest income group and 53% are included in the highest income group. While the spouses of 47% of the household heads in the research region are housewives, those who stated that their spouses were not housewife were 53%. A great majority (72%) of the household heads stated that they were generally satisfied with their lives, whereas those who stated that they were dissatisfied were found to be 28%. Furthermore, 58% of the household heads in the research region stated that they were generally satisfied with their health status and 42% stated that they were generally dissatisfied with their current jobs. A great majority of the household heads who participated in the research stated that they were satisfied with their marriage (78%), whereas those who stated their dissatisfaction with their marriage were found to be 22%. 4. MODEL ESTIMATION RESULTS The estimated model has 78% accurate estimation of the opinions of household heads living in urban areas. Additionally, the Nagelkerke R Square value, which indicates the explanatory power of the model, was found to be 0.52. The Logit model generally defined in Equation [3] was estimated employing the variables summarized in Table 1 and the estimation results and whether the parameters are statistically significant are presented in Table 2. Table 2: Model Estimation Results Variables Coefficients Z-Value Level of Significance C -0.192 -0.518 0.6042 PR1 -0.733 -2.125 0.0336 PR2 -0.541 -1.659 0.993 EL1 -0.465 -1.350 0.1769 195 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo EL2 -0.617 -2.032 0.0421 I1 -0.938 -2.369 0.0178 I2 -0.552 -1.650 0.0989 HWS 0.482 1.685 0.0920 HS 1.031 4.025 0.0001 JS 0.804 2.818 0.0048 MS 2.319 7.917 0.0000 Nagelkerke R-Square 0.52 Model Accurate Estimation Ratio 0.73 According to the analysis results, all variables included in the model have the anticipated signs. In addition, all of the variables excluding EL1 and ISP were found to be statistically significant at 10% level of significance. According to the model estimation results, the household heads living in a larger city were found to be happier than those living in a relatively smaller city, in other words, it was found that the household heads living in Antalya are more likely to be satisfied with their lives than those living in Isparta and Burdur. According to research results, it is notable that the levels of life satisfaction of household heads decrease as their educational levels increase. The parameter related to the ED1 variable, which includes the household heads possessing the lowest educational level, was calculated as -0.46, which suggests that the household heads with low educational levels are more satisfied with their lives compared to household heads with higher educational levels. However, ED1 variable is not statistically significant. Another variable included in the model is income variable. Similarly, parameters regarding income variables were found to be negative and statistically significant. It was found that the household heads with higher levels of income were more satisfied with their lives compared to those with lower levels of income, in other words, there exists a linear relationship between the income level and life satisfaction of household heads. Parameters regarding housewife (HWS), job satisfaction (JS), health satisfaction (HS) and marriage satisfaction (MS) were found to be positive and statistically significant. In other words, it was found that those who were generally more satisfied with the housewife status of their wives, current job, health status and marriage were more satisfied with their lives. 196 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 5. CONCLUSION This study analyzes the life satisfaction levels of household heads through the use of questionnaire survey data compiled from household heads living in urban areas. To that end, Logit model is estimated. It was found that life satisfaction decreases as the city in which the household head lives gets larger and similarly, the probability of household heads to be satisfied with their lives decreases as the level of education increases. Moreover, it was found that the household heads with higher levels of income were more satisfied with their lives than those with lower levels of income. Similarly, it was found that the household heads with housewife spouses, health status satisfaction, job satisfaction and marriage satisfaction were likely to be more satisfied with their lives compared to those who do not have such specific satisfactions. REFERENCES Amemiya, T., 1983. Advanced Econometrics. Cambridge, MA Harvard University. Chow, H.P.H., 2005. Life Satisfaction Among Universıty Students in a Canadian Prairie City: a Multivariate Analysis, Social Indicators Research, 70, ss. 139- 150. Cetin, M., Ebrinç, S., Başoğlu, C., Semiz, Ü.B., Çobanoğlu, N., Can, S. & Karaduman, F. 2003. Acemi Erlerin Yaşam Koşullarından Memnuniyetini Belirleyen Faktörlerin İncelenmesi, Türk Psikiyatri Dergisi, 14(2), ss. 125-133. Dikmen, A.A., 1995. İş Doyumu ve Yaşam Doyumu İlişkisi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt:50, No:3-4, Haziran-Aralık. Dockery, A.M., 2003. Happiness, Life Satisfaction and the Role of Work: Evidence From two Australian Surveys. Paper Presentend to the 5 th Part to Full Employment Conference on Unemployment, University of Newcastle, 10-12 December. Gilman, R. & Huebner, E. S. 2000. Review of Life Satisfaction Measures for Adolescents, Behaviour Change, Vol. 17, No. 3, ss.178-183. Greene, W., 2002. Econometric Analysis, Macmillan,New York. Gujarati, D., 2001. Temel Ekonometri, Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul Guler K.B. ve Emeç, H. 2006. Yaşam Memnuniyeti Ve Akademik Başarıda İyimserlik Etkisi. D.E.Ü.İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt:21 Sayı:2, ss:129-149. Keser, A., 2005. İş Doyumu ve Yaşam Doyumu İlişkisi: Otomotiv Sektöründe Bir Uygulama. Çalışma ve Toplum, 4, ss.77-96. 197 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Özdevecioğlu, M. ve Aktas, A., 2007. Kariyer Bağlılığı, Mesleki Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Bağlılığın Yaşam Tatmini Üzerindeki Etkisi: İş-Aile Çatışmasının Rolü. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 28, Ocak-Haziran, ss.1-20. Pindyck, R. S., ve Rubınfeld, D., 1991. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. Mc Graw-Hill, Inc, New York. Rode, J., 2004. Job Satisfaction and Life Satisfaction Revisited: A Longitudinal Test of an Integrated Model. Human Relations, Volume 57(9), ss. 1205-1230. ICT Infrastructure for Sustainable Society: A Story of BH Telecom Dzihad Zlatar,Meliha Handzic International Burch University, Sarajevo, 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. E-mails:dzidzmir@gmail.com, mhandzic@ibu.edu.ba Abstract World-class ICT infrastructure is the key to rapid economic and social development ofa country. Past studies show that the growth of ICT, particularly telecommunicationservices has a direct link with the economic growth of the country. However,the access to ICT infrastructure, services and applications and thus the level ofdevelopment varies among the countries. The focus of this study is on the currentsituation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The main objective of the study is toexplore the penetration of telecommunication in B&H and the role of BH Telecom inthis process. Keywords:ICT, infrastructure, sustainable society, case study 1. INTRODUCTION The war that has ravaged Bosnia (1992-1995) did not just take its toll in casualties and material damage but has left the communications infrastructure crippled as well. While the other countries in the region introduced beginnings of information technologies, Bosnia had just started an arduous task of rebuilding its communications network. That task fell to the 198 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1168 Title A name given to the resource Analysis of Factors Affecting the Life Satisfaction of Household Heads Living in Urban Areas: A Case of West Mediterranean Region Author Author Ali Riza , Aktas Abstract A summary of the resource. Since the early ages of history, individuals have sought life satisfaction and considered it as a life goal. Because of this fact, the term life satisfaction has kept its importance in time and has been the focus of many studies. Life satisfaction is seen as a positive value gained by an individual’s own evaluation of the quality of life as a whole, therefore may be described as subjective. Nevertheless, studies made about life satisfaction use both subjective and objective indicators. Life satisfaction is partially conceptualized as the result of satisfaction related to various life fields such as work, family, health, etc. and it is assumed that the effects of environmental conditions highly help satisfaction related with life fields. When studies about life satisfaction are taken into consideration, it is notable that the term job satisfaction is generally emphasized. However, studies show that job satisfaction can explain only a few of the changes in life satisfaction. In this study, it is aimed to determine the socioeconomic factors affecting the life satisfaction of household heads by using data from questionnaires and Logit model. “Unclustered Single-Stage Simple Random Probability Sampling Method” was used to apply the questionnaires to 490 household heads living in city centers of Antalya, Isparta and Burdur. In order to determine the probability of whether the household heads were satisfied with their lives or not, explanatory variables oriented to the current perceptions of household heads were included to the model in the study in addition to the demographic variables. Demographic variables were included to the model as the dummy variable. Logit model was estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. According to the results of the analysis, life satisfaction of the household heads decreased with the increase of the size of the city. Similarly, increase in education level also decreased the probability of life satisfaction of the household heads. In addition, household heads with high income levels were happier than the ones with lower income. Similarly, if the spouse of the household head is either healthy, satisfied from job, or is a house wife, satisfied from marriage, then life satisfaction is determined to be higher than the household heads without the aforementioned spouse characteristics. Keywords: Satisfaction, Life Satisfaction, Household Head, Logit Model, West Mediterranean Region. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/380d8f2e762195fc101b318ef0f759cc.pdf cf9b038012aa07e51c61ad80baff1e5a PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Hackett, M., & Dilts, D.M. (2004). A Systematic Review of Business Incubation Research. Journal of Technology Transfer, 29, 55-82. Kleinbaum, D.G., & Klein, M. (2005). Survival Analysis: A Self-Learning Text (2nd Ed.). New York: Springer. Sertkaya, D., Ata, N., & Sözer, M. T. (2005). Yaşam çözümlemesinde zamana bağlı açıklayıcı değişkenli Cox regresyon modeli. Ankara Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Mecmuası, 58, 153-58. Tabatabai, M. A., Bursac, Z., Williams, D. K., & Singh, K. P. (2007). Hypertabastic survival model. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 4-40. Karaöz, M., & Albeni, M., (2011), İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan Girişimlerin Hayatta Kalma ve Büyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: KOSGEB İş Geliştirme Merkezleri (İŞGEM) Üzerine Bir Araştırma. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). (Issue Brief No. 109K139). Yay, M., Çoker, E., & Uysal, Ö. (2007). Yaşam Analizinde Cox Regresyon Modeli and Artıkların İncelenmesi, Cerrahpaşa Tıp Dergisi, 38, 139-45. Seeking Debt Crisis And Solution In Europe Ali Yavuz,Ceyda Şataf,Dilek Göze Kaya, Serap Gül S.D.Ü. İ.İ.B.F. Maliye Bölümü, E-mails: aliyavuz@sdu.edu.tr, ceydasataf@sdu.edu.tr, dilekgozkaya@hotmail.com gul_serap19@hotmail.com Abstract In this study, the European Union (EU) countries, the countiries of their lives go down to the root causes of the debt crisis by making suggestions in search of solutions to the debt crisis will be examined. Emerging in the U.S.A. mortgage market crisis in 2007, quickly spread to the real sector from the financial sector in the years 2007-2009. And so the U.S.A. economy, increased unemployment and stagnation in 2008 and 2009 a major problem encountered. The economic crisis in the U.S. especially in EU countries, especially spread through strong financial relationships. Cause of the crisi spreading, the U.S.A., its foreign trade with third countries EU’s countries and possble recession and real income loses, narrowed. Foreign demand for exports of goods and services of third countries. Another reason for the crisi, said that the U.S.A. debt-based consumer spending growth can’t be prevented. E.U.’s main causes of debt crisi, the misappropriation of resources, competition loss, and therefore can’t be seen in this negative economic revival began participation in the Euro. Falling ineterest rates in euro countries participating in the pre-crisis period, the total demand by facilitating increased borrowing opportunities. GIIPS( Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries in paralel with an increase in demand has increased in both public and private debts. Increased demand led to an increase in the prices of goods and services increase in investment. In the last part of study, the debt crisis of the EU countries should take measures to release the elimanation of 59 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo debt problems, increase the competiveness of member states and the EU, strengthning economic governance issues within the EU will be examined. Keywords: Global Crisis, Debt Crisis , European Union 1.INTRODUCTION U.S.A. real estate crisis emerged in late 2008, then the real economies of Britain and the ongoing volatility in financial markets have a devastating effect on the financial markets have faced a crisis. Decline in total demand and the slump in financial markets has resulted in the decline in trade volume. However, severe damage to many of this crisi has a strong economy. The latest example of this situation in the EU, but many measures taken against some of the effcets of the crisis be established.In this sudy, the first global crisis that emerged in the USA and Europe that followed the debt crisis in Europe by examining the emergence debt crisis fort he country based evaluations are performed to look for solutions. 2. Global Crisis and Its Reasons Global crisis, emerging in U.S.A., has begun in finance, firstly in the real sector and then spreaded to the entire economy. The reason why this crisis began is that mortgages, given in low interest rates, was not paid back to banks in due dates. Loans not paid back both caused finance institutions to go bankrupt and financial crisis reflected to the real sector as a result of declining demands with shaken consumer confidince in the market ( Önder,2009:17) Because global crisis led to the liquid and confidince problem, direct foreign investments and the short-term money movements as portfolio investments decreased (Engin ve Yeşiltepe, 2009: 17). After the attact in U.S.A. , in 11 September of 2001, followed by a recession in economy, the Federal Reserve System (FED) brought interest ratios down from %6,5 being in 2001 to %3 in 2003 in order to arouse economics. This fall in interest rates reflected to the interest rates applied to the mortgage. Since low inflation and low interest rates decreased the costs of mortgage, the demand for this sector increased. Increasing demand brought together the increase in the costs of home. Even tough families could not afford these costs, financial markets gave bonded home loan to people (Kutlu ve Demirci, 2011: 122). From the 2000 till the end of 2006, there was liquid abundance in the financial markets. The abundance of liquide caused to given loan those people who has no income or work. After banks had introduced the seized homes to market, the costs of homes fell down. However, the users of credit discontinued to pay credits because of such reasons that bank loans were too higher than home charges (Alantar, 2008: 2). The banks giving mortgage evaluated the property before the repaying of credits and sold it to an investment bank or a mortgage institution. Not paying back the credits, here, not only the bank that giving credit but also the institution that buying the security suffered by. Hence, the crisis made an chain like effect. Due to the fact that the crisis reflected to the real economy, in U.S. and Europe came about a decrease in the rates of growth. As in the figure, since 2007, the decline of the growth rates is seen in the developed and the developing countries (Alantar, 2008: 3-6).Trade balance deficit increasing with the global crisis revealed the current account deficit problem. And the current account deficit brought out the need to find out external source. It was not easy to fulfill the need of source. Things that were done to avoid the negative effects of global crisis has caused budget deficits and increase of loans in EU countries (Oskay, 2010: 72-73). 60 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.1. Europe Debt Crisis Europe is the main reason in the decline of the credit scores of debt crisis countaries, pressures in the stock market, dominant countries’ bonds and in the spread of credit debt swap agreement. The financial staples, which are under pressure in Europe, are countries such as Greece, Icelandic, Ireland and Portugal (Arezki vd, 2011: 3). In the Eurozone to solve the debt crisis emerging in the spring of 2010, the money and finance policies of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was not been affected (Gianviti vd., 2010: 1). Debt crisis of Eurozone , 2010, caused big movements in yields to call while causing great changes in the rates of Euro and other currency unit (Gianviti vd., 2010: 5). The government is generally held responsible for crisises on account of the exceeded budget deficits to practice definite goals in the pact of stability and growth as a part of Maastricht Treaty. The reformation proposals of EU include the controlled financial policies and rising bank arrangements of national governments. While the Stability and Growth Pact, Maastricht Treaty and European Union was focusing on debt and budget deficit rates of government, they neglected the “excessive” debt rates of private sector. This excessive debt caused crisis in the financial markets (Stein, 2011, 199). When banking crisis came out in private sector, governments especially of countries like Ireland and Spain – undertook the dept of the private sector and saved these banks from that debt. Taxpayers has become indebted to the foreign financiers (Stein, 2011, 200-201). The rates of debt after crisis /GSMH has increased. Constitutional budget deficit is more lower in Ireland and Spain than the Euro zone. The private sector has become the main reason of debt crisis in these countaries (Stein, 2011, 202). 2.1.1. Euro Zone EU member states, a common currency (EURo) through use of established monetary union. However, the “ Euro ZOne” called the monetary union, because of the up heaval in recent years has undergone some of the economic crisis. First, some countries in the euro area credit ratings agencies has been reduced significantly. After thr Irish government bonds in Greece and Portugal, then the degree is worthless, and this case has been brought up to the crisis escalated. With 17 member countries, including the so-called Euro common currency, the euro area and countries use the euro by the European Central Bank monetary policy to be applied to a single source, including Euro 17 depending on the countries’s economies together tightly as they could. This is the negativity coming from the other Euro countries in the territory of one euro in facilitating the spread within a short time.However, the financial and real sectors of the EU member states at a high level of integration between these countries and the speed increased the levels of exposure. (Odabaş, Bahtiyar, 2011, 104). Looking at the table in 2010 while public deficits to be reduced compared to the Euro in 2010 which took place in 2009 while public debt has increased over the previous year. Euro area government debt to GDP ratio was 79.3% in 2009 to 85.1 % in 2010, this rate increased to. Public deficits in the euro area GDp ratio which is the figure of the previous year, 6.3% from 6.0% a year. Public expenditure in 2010 compared to 2009 in the Euro 17 countries, showed a slight decline in governemnt revenues over the same period almost unchanged. However, this table Euro Area 17 key figures related to the general governemnt budget deficit anf debt included ratio of debt stocks by country looking very serious budget deficits or differences emerge.( (Odabaş, Bahtiyar, 2011, 104-105). 61 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 1: Euro Zone (17) Countries’s Public Debt Stock Euro Zone (17) 2007 2008 2009 2010 9 035 939 9 264 270 8 970 953 9 204 316 -60 082 -188 988 -566 680 -550 481 Budget balance (% GSYİH) -0.7 -2.0 -6.3 -6.0 Public Expenditures (% GSYİH) 45.9 46.9 50.8 50.4 Public revenues (% GSYİH) 45.2 44.8 44.5 44.4 Public debt (milyon €) 5 984 848 6 472 881 7 116 276 7 837 207 Public debt (% GSYİH) 66.2 69.9 79.3 85.1 GDP Current Prices (milyon €) Budget balance (milyon €) Kaynak: Eurostat, Provision Of Deficit And Debt Data For 2010 - First Notification, <http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-26042011-AP/EN/2-26042011-AP-EN.PDF>, (26.04.2011)’den uyarlanmıştır. (aktaran Odabaş, Bahtiyar, 2011, 105) 2.1.2. European Union Member Countries Debt Crises Euro-Zone is described as surrounding countries Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the debt crisis occurring in the second quarter of 2010 and later expanded by including Italy and Spain, followed by a road. This situation, particularly in terms of golbal growth and financial stability is a major risk to the Euro Area countries. (Değerli, Keleş, 2011, 2). 2.1.2.1. Crisis in Greece Informal econmy in Greece is veryimportant in the beginning of the euro. In excess of informality reduces tax revenues. Also in Greece in the Euro zone, while the poor performance fort he rise in nnational income, inflation rates, the region has achieved the highest level. For these reasons, the cost of borrowing has also risen in Greece. Euros between 2000-2008 to just over 3% inflation rate in the process of adaption illusion. Improved macroeconomic conditions and increased foreign capital inflow in this period. Greater than 5% GDP in 1995 to 2008, net capital inflow was 100%. Paralel to the increase in domestic demand, increasing imports increased current acoount deficit. The current account deficit was 3.7% in 1997 to 14.4% has risen up. Increased demand has increased prices and employment costs, and this has reduced the competitiveness of Greece. Since 1997, the Euro, with 47 % average increase in consumer prices was well above the 27% economy. Increase expected in the IMF’s real effective Exchange rate in Greece is around % 20-30’s. In these circumstances the loss of competititon is obvious. Along with increasing the budget deficit crisis, wit hgrowth reversed and increased debt. National income in 2008 showed an increase of %2, 2% by 2009 has become smaller and correspondingly reduced government revenues and the budget deficit in 2008 was % 7.7 in 2009 to 13.6% increased. Borrowing in 2007, while % 96 of GDP in 2009 rose to %116. (Öztürk,Aras, 2011, 147.) Ireland and Spain in the government are seen as different because of the debt crisis in Greece. The stability and Growth Pact, Greece, Ireland and Spain the debt crisis proportions when a value is cleraly relevant. Greece, a large fiscal deficit and the cumulative result of a large public debt and the debt crisis of chronic macroeconomic balances is seen as the origin. The global crisis worsenend the 62 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo financial situation began to deterşorate şn the second half of 2007 in Greece. Greece’s credit rating to fall in the budget predicament causes the public debt/GDP raito of 115.1% in the euro area has been the most indebted country, Italy, and also during 2014, this ratio was expected to continue to rise. (Stein, t.y., 210-211). 2.1.2.2. Crisis in Ireland Ireland based on the continuous development of the construction sector growth has accelerated since the 1990’s. Prosperity has increased the demand for the construciton sector due to the increase in housing prices and this situation greatly enhanced. Along with increasing global crisis of 2008, however, housing prices have fallen by 50-60% and caused to be dragged into the crisis in Ireland. Housing loans as a result of thisi crisis, banksa re forced to configure a distorted financial structures. 45 billion dolars in government in order to improve the financial condition of banks has transferred a resource. This situaition has increased government budget deficits, the impact of the crisis and economic recession, tax revenues began to decline. Uncertainty of the budget reduction in tax revenues in Ireland has increased even more by compressing.(http://www.sobiad.org/eJOURNALS/dergi_EBD/arsiv/2011_2/mustafa_ozturk. pdf, 2011, 148). Looking at the table of public deficits in the year 2010 in Ireland increased by about twicw compared to 2009. Took place in 2010, the public debt has increased over the previous year. While the public debt to GDP ratio in Ireland in 2009 65.6% 96.2% in 2010, this rate rose to. If the public deficit to GDP ratio which is the figure of the previous year 14.3% from -32.4%2s was. Watching a growing trend in public expenditures, public revenues almost unchanged over the same period. (Eurostat, 2011,5.) Table 2 : Ireland’s Public debt stock İrlanda 2007 2008 2009 2010 189 374 179 989 159 645 153 939 128 -13 196 -22 795 -49 903 Budget balance (% GSYİH) 0.1 -7.3 -14.3 -32.4 Public expenditures (% GSYİH) 36.7 42.8 48.2 67.0 Public revenues (% GSYİH) 36.8 35.5 33.9 34.6 Public debt (milyon €) 47 361 79 837 104 782 148 074 Public debt (% GSYİH) 25.0 44.4 65.6 96.2 GDP Current Prices (milyon €) Budget balance (milyon €) Source: Eurostat, Provision Of Deficit And Debt Data For 2010 - First Notification, <http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-26042011-AP/EN/2-26042011-AP-EN.PDF>, (26.04.2011)’den uyarlanmıştır. 63 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.1.2.3. Crisis in Portugal % 4 growth in the transition to the Euro and EU in Portugal was one of the fastest-growing countries. Process of harmonization with euro ineterest rates fell to % 6 in Portugal. Loose fiscal policy and low interest rates, increased consumer spending. Fixes capital investment increased. The construction sector grew. The current account deficit zero in 1995 to 2000 was an increase of % 9. But at the same rate did’nt increase production. Portugal’s economy did’nt reach serious problems as Greece and Ireland’s economy until the problem reached serious proportions. Portugal in 2001, the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact countries unimplementing is the only country in the euro area is the prof that the recession taking place for a long time. Portugal is a very high current account deficit and the deepening crisi in the banking sector has led to improper practices. According to 2009 data of the country’s public debt/ GDP or 83 and the ratio of budget deficit/ GDp ratio -10.1 or be too far from these nembers are an indication of the Maastricht Criteria. Stabilization program in the country is prepared to reduce budget deficits and subsequent rejection of parliament, the Prime Minister’s resignation has led to deterioration of political stability and credit rating agencies lowered the credit rating of Portugal. The scope of the packet is reduced to %2 of GDP budget deficit until 2013, freezing of pensions, salaries in the public sector with more than 1500 Euros to cut between% 5-10, health, education and local government expenditures, such as applications for cut down on the agenda has.( Pioneer Perspectives, 2011, s.3-7) . 3. Solutions developed as a Crisis Payment diffciculties of the EU member states outside the euro-zone opportunities against the financing has been established fort he creation of Fund Balance of payments. Mode of operation of this fund will use the funds to issue bonds is colleterally member states of the country. (Council of the European Union, 2002.1-2) Credit Pool mechanism established. This system was created fort he use of a debt once a pool of Greece. Euros 80 billion and 30 billion Euros of EU-funded by the IMF in a repository 110 billion euros. ( European Comission, 2011:1) Established the European Financial Stability Mechanism. This mechanism of natural disasters and a member of the EU member states of the country to live in their own finacial difficulties as a result of external factors outside the control of the event was created to be used. However, to some extent affected by external factors such as Greece and Ireland, but also being heavily influenced by internal factors of the crisis, this mechanism is used. In this system, credit markets on behalf of the EU member countries and made available are provided. With this mechanism, the bodies of the EU adopted the use of resources in a tight macro-economic stablization program brought the applicatioan requirement. This mechanisim is temporarily formed. Instead, in 2013, will be the European Stability Mechanism. (Europe Press Releases, 2010:1) The European Fianancial Stability Fund was established in 2010. The purpose of the Fund’s debt problems so that the eurozone countries and monetary union to provide temporary financial support to maintain financial stability. Euro zone countries’ common mode of operation of the fund launched under the guarantee is provide credit to member countried through bonds. Mechanism of the European Financial Stability Fund, the European Financial Stability Fund is a temporary place in 2013 will leave the European Stability Mechanism. (Council of The European Union, 2010:1-5) 64 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In 2010 decided to establish the European Stability Mechanism. This mechanism will be operational in 2013, is an institutional structure will have a permanent nature. The debt problems of the former is like living in Greece and Ireland was set up temporarily in order to provide financial support to member countries of the Union. As a condition of the mechanism of utlilizng the principle of economic adjustment programs introduced strict application. The used slices of credit in support of the European Stability Mechanism in a difficult situaition if necessary, may purchase bonds of the Member countries. ( Council of The european Union, 2011:1-6) 4.CONCLUSION Since 2008, when the global economic crisis in the U.S.A. the recession that occurred, both these adversely affected the economies of the country and the world. In the Euro ares, to experience what the point of all the scenarios in case of Greece is focused failure to pay debts. Uncertain consequences as a result of the union was to be exported to Greece, a crisis likely to affcet other countries will point to an entangled state. In case of inability to pay and a possible bankruptcy of Greece and the other euro zone countries, Greece will lead to decrease in value of bonds. Such a possibility or even france, Italy and Spain in the troubled days spent in a negative way. Severe effects of the crisi is happening to other Euro zone countries in order to prevent the spread of October 27th 2011 in Brussels, EU leaders come together and have taken concrete steps to save the euro. Greece’s debt to the leaders agreed on the reduction of debts the banks have made their under taking losses up to %50 of the banks. Thus, banks in Greece’s 250 billion euros in debt, is expected to be reduced to euro 102 billion. In addition, the European Financial stability Fund resources was decided to remove 440 Billion Euros 1 trillion euros, the new fund will enter the application in November 2011 regarding the framework agreement has been reached. Another important decision taken at the summit of any country in the future to provide protection against losses arising from the entry of default was recapitalizing the bank. At this point, emergency banking reforms and succesful implementation of public finance reforma s are inevitable. Public finaces, especially the successful implementation of the rules should be binding and obligatory for all countries. Result in decesions taken at the summit to show the long term, so tihs context, fiscal rules seem to be necessary tı put and to establish new institutions willbe watched on. REFERENCES ALANTAR, Doğan,(2008), Küresel Finansal Kriz: Nedenleri Ve Sonuçları Üzerine BirDeğerlendirme, http://www.finanskulup.org.tr/assets/maliyefinans/81/Dogan_Alantar_Kuresel_Finansal_Kriz _Nedenleri_Sonuclari_MFY81.pdf, 28.02.2012) AREZKI, Rabah, B. Candelon and A. N. R. 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EUCO 10/1/11 REV 1 CO EUR 6 CONCL 3, 24/25,http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/120296.pdf (28.06.2011) ENGİN, Ediz ve Ebru Yeşiltepe, Global Ekonomik Krizin Gölgesinde Türkiye’nin Maastricht Kriterlerine Uyumu, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, Cilt 1, Sayı 2, ISSN: 1309-8020, 2009 European Comission (2011). Economic and Financial Affairs, The Greek Loan Facility,http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu_borrower/greek_loan_facility/index_en.htm (01.08.2011) Europe Press Releases (2010). The European Stabilization Mechanism, MEMO/10/173, Brussels,10 May 2010, http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/10/173, 13.07.2011 Eurostat, Provision Of Deficit And Debt Data For 2010 - First Notification, <http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-26042011-AP/EN/2-26042011-APEN.PDF, 28.02.2012 Eurostat, Provision Of Deficit And Debt Data For 2010 - First Notification, <http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-26042011-AP/EN/2-26042011-APEN.PDF>, (26.04.2011)’den uyarlanmıştır. (aktaran Odabaş, Bahtiyar, 2011, 105) GIANVITI, François, A. O. Kruege, J. Pisani-Ferry, A.Sapir ve J.von Hagen,( 2010), A European Mechanism for Sovereign Debt Crisis Resolution: A Proposal KUTLU, Hüseyin Ali ve N. Savaş Demirci, Küresel Finansal Krizi (2007) Ortaya Çıkaran Nedenler, Krizin Etkileri, Krizden Kısmi Çıkış Ve Mevcut Durum, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, Ekim/2011 OSKAY, Cansel, (2010), Türkiye’de Dış Borçlar ve Avrupa Borç Krizinin Olası Yansıması Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme, Bütçe Dünyası Dergisi, Sayı: 34 ÖNDER, İzzettin, (2009), Küresel Kriz ve Türkiye Ekonomisi, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi (http://journal.mufad.org.tr/attachments/article/238/2.pdf , 28.02.2012) Pioneer Perspectives (2011). The Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis, http://us.pioneerinvestments.com/misc/pdfs/economy/perspectives_portugal_debt_downgrade .pdf?adtrack=institutional (22.07.2011) STEIN, Jerome L., (2011), The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe, Cato Journal, Vol. 31, No. 2 (http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj31n2/cj31n2-2.pdf, 28.02.2012) http://www.sobiad.org/eJOURNALS/dergi_EBD/arsiv/2011_2/mustafa_ozturk.pdf, (22.03.2012) 66 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1314 Title A name given to the resource Seeking Debt Crisis And Solution In Europe Author Author Ali , Yavuz Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, the European Union (EU) countries, the countiries of their lives go down to the root causes of the debt crisis by making suggestions in search of solutions to the debt crisis will be examined. Emerging in the U.S.A. mortgage market crisis in 2007, quickly spread to the real sector from the financial sector in the years 2007-2009. And so the U.S.A. economy, increased unemployment and stagnation in 2008 and 2009 a major problem encountered. The economic crisis in the U.S. especially in EU countries, especially spread through strong financial relationships. Cause of the crisi spreading, the U.S.A., its foreign trade with third countries EU’s countries and possble recession and real income loses, narrowed. Foreign demand for exports of goods and services of third countries. Another reason for the crisi, said that the U.S.A. debt-based consumer spending growth can’t be prevented. E.U.’s main causes of debt crisi, the misappropriation of resources, competition loss, and therefore can’t be seen in this negative economic revival began participation in the Euro. Falling ineterest rates in euro countries participating in the pre-crisis period, the total demand by facilitating increased borrowing opportunities. GIIPS( Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries in paralel with an increase in demand has increased in both public and private debts. Increased demand led to an increase in the prices of goods and services increase in investment. In the last part of study, the debt crisis of the EU countries should take measures to release the elimanation of debt problems, increase the competiveness of member states and the EU, strengthning economic governance issues within the EU will be examined. Keywords: Global Crisis, Debt Crisis , European Union Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/66ca40c28e68dfd16f1271234d1f5693.pdf 315a47624bbcd19d425d173da42133af PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Affecting Channels Of The Global Crisis On The South-Eastern Europe (See-7) Countries’ Growth Performance Ali Sen1, Huseyin Altay2 1Dumlupinar University; Kutahya; TURKEY; 2Bilecik University; Bilecik E-mails: alisen@dumlupinar.edu.tr,haltay16@hotmail.com SEE-7 includes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. Abstract This paper analyzes the impact of the global crisis on the growth performance of SEE-7 countries. From the beginning of 2000’s to the eve of the global crisis, these economies had a strong growth performance. Especially, increasing export, inflows of foreign direct investments and private capital significantly contributed to their economic growth. However, the global economic crisis adversely affected all the SEE-7. According to empirical findings obtaining from the panel regression results, until the global crisis, the external variables significantly contributed to growth performances of these economies. However, the impacts of external variables on GDP growth rate reduced sharply during the crisis. Keywords: The SEE-7 countries, growth performance, the global crisis, external variables, panel data. 1.INTRODUCTION While the global crisis erupted in advanced countries, it started to affect other countries after last quarter of 2008. In the beginning of 2009, many developing countries were heavily exposed by the global crisis. The impact of the global crisis on economic activity varied widely across countries that have different real, external and financial vulnerability (Berkmen, et al. 2009). At first, the most adverse affecting countries became more openness ones. Seven of South-Eastern Countries (the SEE-7)25 also suffered from the global crisis despite of their different monetary, exchange rate regimes, and fiscal stances (Cocozza et al., 2011). However, these countries had some common characteristics as economically and politically. Firstly, they were new independent countries. Most of them gained their independence in the mid-1990s after a violent war, including destructive effects on their economies. Secondly, their transitions from central planned to market economies occurred at the same period. In 1990s because of conditions of war and transition, these economies had to deal with both economic and politic distresses. Finally, they had a high level of economic and financial openness and thus exposed to the risk that came with the global crisis. 25 SEE-7 includes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia. 229 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Most of current economic literature, not depending on empirical evidences, claimed that the main cause of their economic contractions in the global crisis was sharp reduction of their export capacities and foreign capital inflows. The aim of the paper is to analyze the effect of external variables, which many of them are components of the balances of payments, on GDP growth rate of SEE-7 countries in 2000-2010. The paper examines the effects of external variables in two different periods. It describes 2000-2007 as the period of pre-crisis and 20072010 as pre-crisis plus post-crisis. Thus, it is possible to compare with two different periods with respect to impacts of external indicators. There are not enough empirical papers about this topic in literature. The purpose of the paper is to fill this gap and provide empirical evidence to support the claims of current literature. At first, the impacts of the global economic turbulence were spread across SEE-7 countries by two different channels (Cocozza et al., 2011): First channel is deficiency of import demand of the developed countries shortening the export capabilities of other countries. Especially, small open economies like SEE-7 the exportoriented began to slump. In addition, because the largest partner of SEE-7 countries is EU, they incurred aftermaths of the global crisis. Second is disappearance of their financial facilities because of turmoil in the global finance and capital markets. Diminishing in inflows of foreign direct investments, portfolio equity and contradiction in total reserves in SEE-7 countries reduced their growth rates. As long as capital inflows reduced, SEE-7 countries’ growth rate having been fuelled by credit boom decreased. In addition, as their exchange rates depreciated, their real burden of foreign currency loans increased. Both their external debt stocks and interest payments on external debts rapidly rose. The extent of openness to flows of foreign direct investment has been a major cause of the transmission of the effects of the crisis to the region (Bartlett and Prica, 2011). The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 introduces an overview of current literature about transmission channels of the global crisis in SEE-7 countries. In Sections, an econometric analysis identifies the effects of external variables on GDP growth rates in SEE-7 economies. Section 4 includes conclusions. 2. AN OVERVIEW OF CURRENT LITERATURE From the beginning of 2000s to 2008, the SEE-7 had a strong growth performance. All the SEE-7 countries experienced rapid increase of economic output pre-crisis. The measures of economic stability and restructuring seriously contributed to this achievement (Nero, 2010). In addition, increasing their facilities of exports and financial sources integrated them into the global economic system and provided a significant contribution of their growth performances. As a result, in the period of 2000-2007, they had an average growth rate about 4.9 % (Table 1). In 2008-2010, the same rate reduced 0.9 %. Investments, remittances, industrial production, foreign exchange reserves and employment rates have fallen sharply. As a result, growth has slowed down (Ismail and Sahin, 2009). Especially, Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro further suffered from the crisis. Table 1. Growth Rates, (%) 2000 230 Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.5 Croatia Macedonia Montenegro Serbia 3.8 4.5 3.1 5.3 Kosovo Slovenia 4.3 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2001 4.4 3.7 -4.5 1.1 5.3 27.0 2.9 2002 5.3 4.9 0.9 1.9 4.1 -0.7 3.8 2003 4.0 5.4 2.8 2.5 2.7 5.4 2.9 2004 6.1 4.1 4.6 4.4 9.3 2.6 4.4 2005 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.2 5.4 3.8 4.0 2006 6.2 4.9 5.0 8.6 3.6 6.0 5.8 2007 6.8 5.1 6.1 10.7 5.4 6.3 6.9 2000-07 5.4 4.5 3.0 4.6 5.1 7.2 4.4 2008 5.4 2.2 5.0 6.9 3.8 6.9 3.6 2009 -2.9 -6.0 -0.9 -5.7 -3.5 2.9 -8.0 2010 0.8 -1.2 1.8 2.5 1.0 4.0 1.4 2008-10 1.1 -1.7 1.9 1.2 0.4 4.6 -1.0 According to Stiblar (2009), they were small and weak local capital markets, overdependence on capital inflows from Western Europe. They were highly dependent on external inflows of money, either capital investments or loans, and foreign financial aid. Sanfey (2010) argued that during the past decade, SEE-7 has experienced a serious transformation such as the progress in economic development, democratic reforms, and integration into global economic and financial markets. On the other hand, SEE-7 countries had huge current account deficits and thus needed foreign credit or investments. The former have high current account deficits driven by even higher trade deficits (Gligorov and Landesmann, 2009). Beltramello et al. (2009) described the global crisis as an “imported” crisis, because its origins stem from countries in Western Europe and North America. Due to falling demand from key EU trade partners, the region’s exports declined substantially. According to Risteski and Trpkova (2009), the main channels of the crisis were trade shocks, lower remittances and lower foreign direct investments. As a result, credit growth decelerated and domestic demand shrunk. According to Jerger and Knogler, (2009), there were some significant channels to spread to SEE-7. First of them was decline of export demand as the most obvious channel through which an economy may be affected. Decline of the demand for exports obviously became more painful for countries with high export dependence. Export of goods and services as a percentage of GDP in Slovenia, Macedonia and Croatia is respectively 67%, 50% and 42% in 2008. Second leading channel was a considerable amount of debt denominated in foreign currencies. The burden of this debt increased with devaluation of the domestic currency. Bartlett and Monastiriotis (2010) claimed that as the SEE banking systems were not directly exposed to ‘toxic assets’, the crisis was transmitted to the region through a number of indirect channels. These included a contraction of international trade, a sudden stop to credit growth, a rapid fall in inflows of foreign direct investment. Over the last decade, foreign investors found extensive opportunities, besides the banking sector, in telecommunications, energy and other sectors opened up by privatization. According to IMF (2009), the SEE–7 were exposed to the global crisis more than in previous ones, because they were more integrated with the world economy through trade, FDI, and remittances. The crisis significantly influenced these countries through reduced demand for their exports. Rising interest rates increased debt service costs. Increased trade and financial links with the outside world also imply greater dependence on external conditions. Because 231 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the slowdown in global growth reduced trade, remittances, foreign direct investment, these factors had a major impact on the SEE–7. Tightened global liquidity conditions adversely affected financing facilities. SEE-7 countries had developed based upon an economic model dependent on capital inflows from abroad; with the global credit crunch adversely affected their ability to maintain this growth strategy (UN, 2009). The rapidly expanding credit growth financed with short-term external bank borrowing came to a sudden stop in 2008 (IMF, 2011). Sewel (2011) argued that the crisis transmission mechanism was not the banking and financial system. Rather the serious decline in export markets and the collapse of foreign direct investment that had the origin of recent growth and development in the region adversely affected their performance. Virtually all of the countries had balance of payments deficits prior to the crisis. Generally, current account deficits are quite normal for such developing countries in the beginning of growth. The first growth spurt is frequently financed by inflows of investment, capital goods and equipment. Moreover, their physical capital legacy had already become old largely. Thus, they needed new enormous investment facilities as both physical and financial capital stock (Gallego, 2010). Until the global crisis, the availability of export facilities and significant capital inflows for SEE-7 have helped finance their growth spurt (Sewel, 2011). Jovicic (2009) studied the relationship between the degree of trade integration to the EU market and the timing and intensity of the onset of the crisis effects among the Western Balkan countries. She found that while those with a high degree of trade integration experienced the crisis sooner, those with a lower degree of integration experienced a larger decrease in production. 3. ECONOMETRIC MODEL AND RESULTS The dataset is composed of annual data for SEE-7 countries, which are Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia from 2000 to 2010. Data was collected from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI). The objective of our empirical model is to investigate the impacts of external variables on GDP during the global crisis and pre-crisis. To compare crisis period with pre-crisis period it is analyzed 2000-2007 and 2000-2010 separately. The aim is to examine in both period data set. Data set consists of 10 variables. The dependent variable is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as change of percentage. As share of percent of GDP the independent variables are Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Private Capital Flows (PCF), Portfolio Equity (POE), Total Reserves (TOR), Export of Goods and Service (EXP), Import of Goods and Service (IMP), Official Exchange Rate (OER), External Debt Stocks (EDS), and Interest Payments on External Debt (IPE). The paper has four different models analyzing the impacts of external variables on GDP growth rate. (2) (3) (4) 232 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (5) To estimate models, it is used OLS method. Firstly, to eliminate the problem of poisson regression, unit roots is tested for each variable. Levin, Lin, Chu (LLC) and Im, Pesaran, Shin (IPS) unit root results are in Table 2. According to Table 2, all variables are stationary in first level I(1). Table 2. The Results of Panel Unit Root Test Levin, Lin, Chu Im, Peseran, Shin Variables t statistic Results W statistic Results -1,734** I(1) -1,435* I(1) GDP *** ** -4,056 I(1) -1,953 I(1) FDI -3,065*** I(1) -1,386* I(1) PCF ** *** -1,879 I(1) -2,372 I(1) POE -5,083*** I(1) -2,471*** I(1) TOR *** ** -4,199 I(1) -1,825 I(1) EXP ** * -1,665 I(1) -1,206 I(1) IMP -5,298*** I(1) -4,949*** I(1) OER *** ** -3,044 I(1) -1,777 I(1) EDS -5,331*** I(1) -3,104*** I(1) IPE Secondly, it is investigated whether the problems of autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity. The availability of autocorrelation problem is tested by Wooldridge test; the availability of heteroskedasticity problem is analyzed by Wald test. In models it is implemented Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) to eliminate autocorrelation problem. White’s cross section coefficient covariance method is applied to eliminate heteroskedasticity problem. Thirdly, it is determined the method (fixed effects or random effects) to estimate the models using Hausman test. Finally, in estimating the models, it is analyzed two different periods (2000-2007 and 2000-2010) separately (Table 3 and Table 4). Table 3. The Results 2000-2007 Variables FDI PCF POE TOR EXP IMP OER EDS 233 Model 1 Model 2 2000-2010 Model 3 Model 4 Model 1 21.648* (1.897) -18.975 (-0.807) -29.576*** (-2.888) -21.425 (-1.255) 3.515 3.864 (1.257) -2.580 (-0.362) -5.199*** (-2.860) 0.767 (0.133) -2.507** (-2.677) -0.299 (-0.614) -15.80* (-1.725) 6.400** -0.016 (-0.002) 4.933 (0.536) -8.658** (2.167) -8.248 (-1.565) -1.626 (-1.579) -0.630 (-0.998) -10.962 (-1.095) Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 -7.444 5.240 (1.355) 1.366 (0.138) -16.367** (-1.097) -8.099 (0.133) 11.939 (1.216) 4.124 (0.758) -9.734 (-1.288) -5.511** 19.800 (0.874) -3.283** (-2.290) -22.307 (-1.463) �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 0.813 0.809 (1.228) -1.493 (-0.202) 0.803 Adj R 0.787 0.788 0.788 0.832 0.105 0.131 0.102 0.347 F statistic N D-W Woolridge test Wald test Hausman test 0.000 42 2,079 0.000 42 2.108 0.000 42 2.217 0.000 42 2.225 0.043 63 2.194 0.015 63 2.147 0.024 63 2.029 0.000 63 2.021 0,003 0,007 0,001 0,005 0,001 0,005 0,001 0,004 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 RE RE RE RE RE RE RE RE IPE R2 2 (2.187) 4.389 (0.985) 0.873 0.177 0.187 (-0.960) -32.843 (-1.173) 0.145 (-2.063) -8.676 (-1.042) 0.452 * Significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%; t values in brackets. Table 3 shows results from panel OLS regressions for SEE-7 countries in two different periods that are 2000-2007 and 2000-2010. It is estimated four models for each period. Model 1 includes four variables that foreign direct investment, private capital flows, portfolio equity and total reserves. Model 2 consists of three variables that are export, import and official exchange rate. Model 3 comprises only two variables that are external debt stock and interest payments on external debt. Model 4 have all variables in other models. Although, for each variable, it is not obtained enough significant results from the panel regressions, these models reveal a striking empirical evident coinciding with main hypothesis of this paper. Adjusted R2 has higher values in 2000-2007 than 2000-2010 does. In other words, the models for 2000-2007 have more explanatory power than 2000-2010 do. The effects of external variables on GDP growth rate in the SEE-7 countries are further in precrisis period. From 2000 to 2007, in other words until the global crisis, the external variables contributed to growth performances of these economies. However, the impacts of external variables on GDP growth rate naturally reduced sharply during the crisis. For example, in model 4 including all variables, while adjusted R2 is 0.832 for 2000-2007, the same value is only 0.347 for 2000-2010. 4. CONCLUSIONS The impacts of the global crisis were spread across SEE-7 countries by two different channels. First of contagion channels of the global crisis is deficiency of import demand of the developed countries shortening the export capabilities of other countries. Second of them is disappearance of their financial facilities because of turmoil in the global finance and capital markets. The paper examines the effects of external variables on GDP growth rate in the SEE-7 in two different periods. The first is 2000-2007 as the period of pre-crisis. The second period is 2007-2010 as pre-crisis plus post-crisis. Thus, it is possible to compare with two different periods with respect to impacts of external indicators. According to empirical findings obtaining from the panel regression results, until the global crisis, the external variables significantly contributed to growth performances of these 234 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo economies. However, the impacts of external variables on GDP growth rate naturally reduced sharply during the crisis. REFERENCES Bartlett, W. and Monastiriotis V. (2010) South East Europe after the Economic Crisis: A New Dawn or back to Business as Usual?, London School of Economics and Political Science: LSE European Institute, London (November). Bartlett, W. and Prica, I. (2011). The Variable Impact of the Global Economic Crisis In South East Europe, Economic Annals, Volume LVI, No. 191 / October – December. Beltramello, A., Cruickshank-Valencia E., and Hengel E. (2009) The Global Financial Crisis: Preliminary Evidence in South East Europe and Responses from Governments, SEE Investment Committee, Tuesday, 7 April Brussels. Berkmen, P., Gelos G., Rennhack R., and Walsh J.P. (2009) the Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact, IMF Working Paper, WP/09/280), December. Cocozza, E., Colabella, A. and Spadafora, F. (2011). The Impact of the Global Crisis on South-Eastern Europe, IMF Working Paper WP/11/300, December. Ergin, I. Sahin S. (2009) Global Financial Crisis and its Impact on Balkans, 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10, Sarajevo. Gallego, S., Gardo, S., Martin, R. Molina L., and Serena, J.M. (2010) The Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and Latin America, Bancodespano. Gligorov, G. and Landesmann M. (2009) What is to be done? A policy note, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. IMF. (2009). The Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Low-Income Countries, IMF Multimedia Services Division, March. IMF. (2011) Republic of Slovenia: 2011 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Slovenia, May, IMF Country Report No. 11/121. Jerger, J. and Knogler M. (2009) The Economic and Financial Crisis in South-Eastern Europe, International Scientific Conference: Challenges of the World Economic Crisis, Nis, October 15-16th. Jovicic, M. (2009). The Onset of the Economic Crisis in the West Balkans. The conference on Economic Policy and Global Recession. Belgrade, 25-27 September. Nero, V.W. (2010) Economic and Labour Market Impacts of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on the Countries of the Western Balkans and Moldova, March. http://www.ilo.org/public/english/region/eurpro/geneva/download/ecosoc_crisisimpact_westb alkan.pdf Risteski, S. and Trpkova M.Sc. M. (2010) Global Economic Crisis and its Impact on the Western Balkan Countries Labor Markets, The Young Economists Journal, Vol. 1, issue 15. Pp. 96-107. 235 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Sanfey, P. (2010) South-Eastern Europe: Lessons from the Global Economic Crisis, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Working Paper No. 113. Sewel, J. (2011) The Balkan Economies: Regional Roadblocks, European Distractions and Global Crisis, NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Stiblar, F. (2009) The Impact of the Global Crisis on Montenegro and the Western Balkans, published by Central Bank of Montenegro. UN. (2009) The Global Financial Crisis: Impact and Response of the Regional Commissions The Importance Of Aphrodisias Ancient City In Sustainable Economical Development Matcicek Zekeriya1, Pajo Aykut2 1Adnan Menderes University,Aydın, 2Kırklareli University,Kırklareli E –mails: zekeriyamatcicek@adu.edu.tr,aykut.pajo@kirklareli.edu.tr Abstract Aphrodisias is an ancient city nearby Karacasu, Aydın. It was established by the name of Goddess Aphrodit. It is a big settlement from the Bronz Age to Bizans time. It has been found baths, agora, stadium, odeon, Aphrodit temple in arceologic excavations. Aphrodisias is known as an important sculpturing centre in first- era, was given sculpturing education in that term.Of all the ancient cities in Anatolia, The Stadium of Aphrodisias is one of the best preserved. Aphrodisias is an ancient city which is famous for its Aphrodit temple especially in Roman age. It is one of the most important archeological places of Turkey with its well-protected movement – buildings now. The excavations started by New York University in 1961 are being continued today, too. The new historical sites have been found in excavations that still last now. These historical sites have been presented in the museum of Aphrodisias. About 125.000 tourists visit Aphrodisias ancient city each year. The visitors come from America and European Countries mostly in spring and autumn. In other hot months, French, Italian and Spanish people visit and Brazilian tourists have visited ancienty city lately. Tourists who come in winter visit mostly for shopping and Aphrodisias ancient city is visited. The avarage age of visitors is quite high. It is preferred by only the participants of cultural tours because Aphrodisias Ancient city is visited according to cultural tourism. These tours reachmostly beginning from İstanbul to Bursa – Çanakkale – İzmir Efes – Kuşadası – Didim Milet and then Aphrodisias – Pamukkale Hierapolis and Antalya. In this research the variation of tourist which visit Aphrodisias ancient city have been determined and it has also been determined how tourists in this community spend their money. The effect of these spendings on economical sustainable development of Turkey and the region where ancient city is has beendetermined. 236 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1328 Title A name given to the resource The Affecting Channels Of The Global Crisis On The South-Eastern Europe (See-7) Countries’ Growth Performance Author Author Ali , Sen Abstract A summary of the resource. This paper analyzes the impact of the global crisis on the growth performance of SEE-7 countries. From the beginning of 2000’s to the eve of the global crisis, these economies had a strong growth performance. Especially, increasing export, inflows of foreign direct investments and private capital significantly contributed to their economic growth. However, the global economic crisis adversely affected all the SEE-7. According to empirical findings obtaining from the panel regression results, until the global crisis, the external variables significantly contributed to growth performances of these economies. However, the impacts of external variables on GDP growth rate reduced sharply during the crisis. Keywords: The SEE-7 countries, growth performance, the global crisis, external variables, panel data. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b2ea08904a04f37dbebb17b4363575ae.pdf cd2e4b4193d090dce8754626c24241e7 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kundur, D. and Hatzinakos, D. (1998) Digital watermarking using multiresolution wavelet decomposition. Int. Conf. on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing, 2969-2972. Langelaar, G., and Lagendijk, R. (2001) Optimal differential energy watermarking of dct encoded images and video. IEEE Transactions on image Processing, 148–158 Xia, X., Boncelet, C., and Arce, G. (1997) A Multiresolution Watermark for Digital Images. Proc. IEEE Int. Conf. on Image Processing, vol. I, 548-551. Investigation Of Seismic Performance Of Existing Building Strengthened With Cfrp Ali Demir1, Hakan Başaran2, Duygu Dönmez Demir3 1Department of Civil Engineering, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey 2Department of Turgutlu Vocation School, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey 3Department of Mathematics, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey Abstract In this study, the seismic performance of the Merkez Efendi hospital building was determined with CFRP strengthening methods according to the Turkish Earthquake Code-2007. Firstly, the building was considered with the masonry walls and without masonry walls and the effect of the masonry walls to the performance of the building was investigated. Afterwards, the building was strengthened with CFRP plates to get the required seismic performance level. Consequently, the seismic performances of the hospital building were compared for these three cases. Keywords: Strengthening, Masonry Wall, CFRP, Seismic Performance 1.INTRODUCTION Buildings are subjected to earthquake, wind, fire etc. during their lifetimes. Sometimes, addition of a story and change in the purpose of using occur. For these reasons, the performances of the buildings should be investigated according to the present earthquake codes of the countries. If the performance of the building is insufficient, it must be rehabilitated. The Turkish Earthquake Code-2007 (TEC-2007) gives alternative rehabilitation methods. One should choose the most suitable method for buildings. Chapter 7 of TEC-2007 entitled “Assessment and Strengthening of Existing Buildings” and sets standards for 336 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo assessment and rehabilitation of existing buildings (Sucuoglu 2006). Recently, there have been some studies about linear and non-linear procedures in TEC-2007 and concluded that results of linear procedures are more conservative than non-linear ones (Sengoz 2007, Tuncer et al. 2007, Kalkan and Kunnath 2007). In this study, the seismic performance level of the Merkez Efendi hospital building with and without masonry walls is determined according to TEC-2007. The some masonry walls are strengthened with CFRP plates for rehabilitation of building. The capacity curves and performance levels of the strengthened buildings are determined with incremental static pushover analysis and compared. 2.DESCRIPTION OF THE HOSPITAL BUILDING The hospital building has ground floor and three stories. The height of the ground floor is 3.70 m and the heights of the other floors are 3.20 m. The building has dimensions 34.90 m by 14.70 m in plan. The building has two shear walls, columns and beams (Fig.1). The building is situated in the 1.seismic zone and Z3 local site class. The standard compressive strength of the concrete of the building is determined from the samples taken from the columns as 11 MPa (Fig.2.b). Material properties are 220 MPa for the yield strength of both longitudinal and transverse reinforcements. A (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (60/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) Y (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (60/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (40/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60) (30/60)(30/60) 595 (30/60) (60/60) 280 (60/60) X C 595 (240/30) 1470 B (30/60) 345 1 330 2 330 3 (240/30) 490 4 330 5 3490 330 6 330 7 330 8 330 9 Figure 1: The plan of ground and first floor of the existing building 337 D 345 10 11 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo a) The hospital building b) The coring Figure 2: Existing Building The existing hospital building was modeled with the present masonry walls and without the masonry walls and they were shown in Figure 4.a and 4.b. After the existing hospital building is rehabilitated with CFRP plates (Fig 4.c). The masonry walls of the hospital building were compared to trusses according to FEMA and Mainstone who had recommend the formulas Equation 1, 2 and 3. According to TEC2007 the elasticity modulus of the masonry walls and compression strength were determined as 1000 MPa, 1 MPa, respectively. 338 �d : Diagonal length t : Width of masonry wall Wef : Effective wal width Em : Modulus of elasticity (Masonry) Es : Modulus of elasticity (Frame) R : Bearing capacity H` : Length of masonry wall H : Story height L` : Net span width L : Span width θ : Angle of diagonal compressive bar Ic : Moment of inertia of columns Figure 3: Diagonal compression region in masonry wall under lateral load and equivalent virtual diagonal compressive bar element that represents the masonry wall d  H2  L2 (1) w  0.175(1  H)0.4  H2  L2 (2) 1  E  t  sin 2  4 1   m   4  Es  Ic  h  339 (3) �The strengthening with CFRP plates is seen in Fig.4.c. The width of the CFRP plates is 100 mm and the thickness is 1.4 mm, the modulus of elasticity of CFRP is 210000 MPa. The three CFRP plates are bonded to the masonry walls side by side. The performance levels of this rehabilitation are compared with the existing building performance. The connection details of CFRP are shown in Fig.5. H-EB = Existing Hospital Building H-EBMW = Existing Hospital Building with Masonry Walls H-CFRP = Strengthened Hospital Building with CFRP a) H-EB b) H-EBMW c) H-CFRP Figure 4: The existing and strengthened hospital buildings with CFRP method Bolt Beam Column Masonry Wall CFRP Plate Figure 5: The connection details of CFRPs 3.METHODS 340 �The incremental static pushover analysis was employed for the performance assessments. The incremental equivalent static lateral force analysis is limited to 8 story buildings with total height not exceeding 25 m, and not possessing torsion irregularity. Nonlinear flexural behaviour in frame members are confined to plastic hinges, where the plastic hinge length Lp is assumed as half of the section depth (Lp= h/2). Pre-yield linear behaviour of concrete sections is represented by cracked sections, which is 0.40EIo for beams and varies between (0.40-0.80)EIo with the axial stress for columns. Strain hardening in the plastic range may be ignored, provided that the plastic deformation vector remains normal to the yield surface. The objective is to carry out nonlinear static analysis under incrementally increasing lateral forces distributed in accordance with the dominant mode shape in the earthquake excitation direction. Lateral forces are increased until the earthquake displacement demand is reached. Internal member forces and plastic deformations are calculated at the demand level. A capacity diagram is obtained from the incremental analysis which is expressed in the “base shear force - roof displacement” plane. The reference design spectrum in the Code has 10% probability of exceeding in 50 years. Based on Turkish strong motion data, it is estimated that the spectral ordinates for 50% probability of exceeding in 50 years are half of the reference spectrum whereas the ordinates for 2% probability of exceeding in 50 years are 1.5 times that of the reference spectrum. Building earthquake performance level is determined after determining the member damage states Evaluation of the investigated buildings is performed using the recently published TEC-2007. Three performance levels, immediate occupancy (IO), life safety (LS), and collapse prevention (CP) are considered as specified in this code and several other international guidelines such as ATC-40, FEMA-273, FEMA-307, FEMA-356(ASCE 2000), FEMA-440, EC-8 and NZS-2003. The rules for determining building performance in TEC2007 are given for each performance level. Immediate Life Collapse Occupancy Safety Prevention IO LS CP Displacement () Performance Levels of the Members Moment Base Shear (VT) Performance Levels of the Building Immediate Life Collapse Occupancy Safety Prevention IO LS CP Plastic Rotation ( P Figure 6: Performance levels for members and buildings 341 �4.RESULTS Modal properties of the first mode of the building are given in Table 1. The effect of the rehabilitation method with CFRP plates on the dynamic properties of the building are shown in Table 1. Table 1: Period values of the hospital building Type of Building H-EB H-EBMW H-CFRP X direction 0.566 0.517 0.528 Y direction 0.555 0.511 0.520 The capacity curves (base shear-displacement) of the buildings are obtained for x and y directions with incremental static pushover analysis and shown in Figure 7. 16000 14000 8000 Base Shear (kN) Base Shear (kN) 10000 6000 4000 2000 H-EB 0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Displacement (m) 0.4 0.5 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0.00 H-EBMW 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.25 0.30 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0.00 H-CFRP 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 Displacement (m) Capacity Curve-X Direction Capacity Curve-Y Direction 0.25 Figure 7: The capacity curves of the building 342 0.15 Displacement (m) 10000 Base Shear (kN) 12000 �According to TEC-2007, the seismic performance points of the hospital building are obtained with incremental static pushover analysis and shown in Table 2. While the base shears of the strengthened building and having masonry walls increase according to the existing building without masonry walls, it is observed that displacements are same levels. Table 2: Performance points for incremental static pushover analysis H-EB H-EBMW H-CFRP X Y X Y X Y 6233 5703 9809 8537 8182 7470 Displacement (m) 0.073 0.050 0.071 0.053 0.070 0.050 Base Shear (kN) According to TEC-2007, the member damage states are determined and shown in Table 3, 4 and 5. Since the existing building does not provide life safety level, it is strengthened with CFRP plates. The seismic evaluations of the building are calculated for each state with the TEC-2007. Table 3: Performance level of H-EB for incremental static pushover analysis <IO IO LS CP Story Beams Columns Beams Columns Beams Columns Beams Columns 1 0(%0) 0(%0) 10(%29) 19(%43) 18(%53) 12(%27) 6(%18) 13(%30) 2 0(%0) 44(%100) 1(%3) 0(%0) 14(%41) 0(%0) 19(%56) 0(%0) 3 0(%0) 44(%100) 3(%9) 0(%0) 20(%59) 0(%0) 11(%32) 0(%0) 4 0(%0) 44(%100) 20(%59) 0(%0) 14(%41) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) Evaluation Life Safety Level X Global performance level of the building is given for incremental static pushover analysis in Table 3. In first story, in the direction of the applied earthquake loads, 29% of the beams 343 �and 43% of the columns are in the immediate occupancy states. 53% of the beams and 27% the columns are life safety states in this story. 18% of the beams and 30% the columns are collapse prevention states in this story. In this situation, the building performance does not satisfy life safety (LS) level. Table 4: Performance level of H-EBMW for incremental static pushover analysis <IO IO LS CP Story Beams Columns Beams Columns Beams Columns Beams Columns 1 0(%0) 0(%0) 10(%29) 19(%43) 18(%53) 12(%27) 6(%18) 13(%30) 2 0(%0) 44(%100) 1(%3) 0(%0) 14(%41) 0(%0) 19(%56) 0(%0) 3 0(%0) 44(%100) 3(%9) 0(%0) 20(%59) 0(%0) 11(%32) 0(%0) 4 0(%0) 44(%100) 20(%59) 0(%0) 14(%41) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) Evaluation Life Safety Level X Table 5: Performance level of H-CFRP for incremental static pushover analysis <IO IO LS CP Story Beams Columns Beams Columns Beams Columns Beams Columns 1 27(%79) 39(%89) 5(%15) 3(%7) 2(%6) 2(%4) 0(%0) 0(%0) 2 29(%85) 44(%100) 3(%9) 0(%0) 2(%6) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) 3 34(%100) 44(%100) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) 4 34(%100) 44(%100) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) 0(%0) Evaluation 344 Life Safety Level √ �5.CONCLUSIONS In this study, the seismic performances of the Merkez Efendi Hospital building are determined according to the conditions of TEC-2007. Since the seismic performance of the existing building is insufficient, CFRP method is used for the rehabilitation and the results are compared. As a result of the performance analyses:      The existing hospital building does not satisfy the life safety level for the earthquake that may be 2% probability of exceeding in 50 years. The performance analyses of the building were considered with the masonry walls and without the masonry walls. The lateral load capacity of the building with the consideration of the masonry walls was 57% more than that of the without masonry walls. However, the displacements were the same for two cases. The strengthening members (CFRP) are designed according to the minimum standards of the TEC-2007. Although lateral load carrying capacity of strengthened building increase, horizontal displacement at the roof for the building is same with existing building. As the member damage conditions are investigated, the performance of the strengthening method according to the conditions of TEC-2007 is satisfactory.  As a result of this work: Once the effect of the masonry walls is taken into account in structural analyses, the buildings are designed more economic. The application of CFRP plates should be detailed very good and applied very well. As a result, it can be said that the CFRP method recommended in the TEC-2007 can be applied with confidence. REFERENCES FEMA-356 (2005) Prestandard and Commentary for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Kalkan E. and Kunnath S.K. (2007) Assessment of current nonlinear static procedures for seismic evaluation of buildings, Engineering Structures, 29, 305–316. Mainstone, R.J. (1974) Suplementary Note on the Stifness and Strengths of Infilled Frames, Building Research Station, UK, Feb. 345 �Sucuoglu, H. (2006) The Turkish seismic rehabilitation code, First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September. Sengoz, A. (2007) Quantitative evaluation of assessment methods in the 2007 Turkish Earthquake Code, Master Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, METU, Ankara. TEC 2007, Specifications for buildings to be built in seismic areas, Turkish Earthquake Code 2007. Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, Ankara, Turkey.Tuncer O. Celep, Z. Yılmaz, M.B. (2007) A comparative evaluation of the methods given in the Turkish Seismic Code, WCCE–ECCE– TCCE Joint Conference: EARTHQUAKE & TSUNAMI. Medical Decision Support System for Diagnosis of Cardiovascular Diseases using DWT and k-NN Emina Alickovic, Abdulhamit Subasi International Burch University, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies, 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. E-mails: ealickovic@ibu.edu.ba, asubasi@ibu.edu.ba Abstract Heart disease is a cardiovascular disorder that is most widespread cause of death in many countries all over the world. In this work, k-Nearest Neighbor machine learning tool was used to classify Electrocardiography (ECG) signals and satisfactory accuracy rate was achieved in classification of ECG signals. The model automatically classifies the ECG signals into 5 different kinds: normal, Premature Ventricular Complex (PVC), Atrial Premature Contraction (APC), Right Bundle Branch Block (RBBB) and Left Bundle Branch Block (RBBB). The best averaged performance over randomized percentage-split is also obtained by k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) classification model. Some conclusions concerning the impacts of features on the ECG signal classification were obtained through analysis of different parameters of kNN. The analysis suggests that kNN modeling is satisfactory performances in at least three points: high recognition rate, insensitivity to overtraining and computational time it takes for classification. The combined model with DWT and k-NN achieves the good. Obtained result shows that the suggested model have the potential to obtain a reliable classification of ECG 346 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1183 Title A name given to the resource Investigation Of Seismic Performance Of Existing Building Strengthened With Cfrp Author Author Ali , Demir Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, the seismic performance of the Merkez Efendi hospital building was determined with CFRP strengthening methods according to the Turkish Earthquake Code-2007. Firstly, the building was considered with the masonry walls and without masonry walls and the effect of the masonry walls to the performance of the building was investigated. Afterwards, the building was strengthened with CFRP plates to get the required seismic performance level. Consequently, the seismic performances of the hospital building were compared for these three cases. Keywords: Strengthening, Masonry Wall, CFRP, Seismic Performance Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/81805e36f5664fc6117e6ab037652d76.pdf 3db36f5cd7e1d7380439025b8747eefe PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Maskell, B. and Kato, N. (2007) “Value Stream Costing: The Lean Solution to Standard Costing Complexity and Waste” in E. D. Stenzel (eds.) Lean Accounting: Best Practices for Sustainable Integration, Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Maskell, B. H. and Kennedy, F. A. (2007) Why Do We Need Lean Accounting and How Does It Work?, Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance (Wiley), 18(3),59-73. McNair, C.J. (2007) On Target: Customer-Driven Lean Management. in E. D. Stenzel (eds.) Lean Accounting: Best Practices for Sustainable Integration, Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Shah, R. and Ward, P.T. (2003) Lean Manufacturing: Context, Practice Bundles, and Performance, Journal of Operations Management, 21, 129-149. Sharman, P.A. (2003) The Case for Management Accounting, Strategic Finance, 85(4), 43-47. Van Der Merwe, A. and Thomson, J. (2007) The Lowdown on Lean Accounting. Strategic Finance, 88(8), 26-33. White, L. (2009) Resource Consumption Accounting: Manager-Focused Management Accounting, The Journal of Corporate Accounting & Finance, 20(4), 63-77. Woehrle, L. S. and Abou-Shady, L. (2010) Using Dynamic Value Stream Mapping and Lean Accounting Box Scores to Support Lean Implementation, American Journal of Business Education, 3(8), 67-75. The Factors Which Caused The Decline In The Amount Of The Newly One Family Houses Sold In Us Ali Cüneyt Çetin1,Jing Li-Kole2 1Department of Accounting and Finance,Suleyman Demirel University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Isparta, Turkey 2State University of New York at Oswego, New York, USA E-mails: cuneytcetin@sdu.edu.tr,likole@oswego.edu Abstract The new privately owned one-family house sold (C25) is recognized as great indicator for economy. The monthly data in February 2011 was 250,000 houses sold. Compared to five years ago, 1,061,000 in 2006 were decreased by 76%. What are the causes to the dramatic decline of number of C25? The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. Therefore, in this study, dependent variable is the new privately owned one-family house sold. Independent variables include 30 years mortgage rate, real personal income, unemployment rate, population, and house price index. The results indicate when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases by 20 thousand. When the unemployment rate increases 1%, the 264 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases 81 thousand, holding all other variables constant. We thought when price goes up the demand should go down. But it doesn’t fit in this study. Income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not significant. It shows that real personal income and unemployment have a high correlation. For the population variable, the coefficient is a negative number. Even though the p-value indicates that this result is not significant, we still couldn’t figure out the cause of this negative relation. The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has significant effects. However, from March to July the slopes of the months have positive or lower negative effects. Consequently, it’s impossible to determine all the causes to the number of new house sold since many factors are interrelated. However, through our series of statistical tests, we could be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag one time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag one time period and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant at 10% level. Keywords: house sold, mortgage rate, income level, unemployment rate, population increases, house price index 1.INTRODUCTION Sales of new and existing privately owned single-family homes16 represent the number of housing units sold. New homes are newly constructed houses that are sold by the developer to the first owner. Existing homes are houses that are at least one year old. The number of new and existing homes available for sale indicates the inventory of unsold houses that are on the market. A home is typically the largest single item bought by householders. Economic output is increased far more by the purchase of a new house than of an existing house because of the materials and construction work required in building a new house, although renovation work is sometimes done when an existing house is purchased. While existing-home sales have a much smaller direct impact on the economy than new-home sales, existing and new-home sales are in fact closely linked because existing-home owners often can afford to buy a new home only by selling their current home. Thus, the market for existing homes strongly influences sales of new homes. In addition, both new and existing home sales generate purchases of furniture, appliances, and other house furnishings, which is a secondary stimulus to the economy. Home sales are sensitive to changes in economic conditions related to employment, personal income and saving, interest rates, housing starts, housing affordability index, and mortgage delinquency and foreclosure. Although housing is a necessity of living, home sales are highly cyclical because households are most likely to purchase a home during prosperous times when they can best afford it, but they tend to defer a home purchase during depressed times when they can least afford it (Stephenson, 2010). 16 It’s commonly known as C25. 265 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The new privately owned one-family house sold17 (C25) is recognized as great indicator for economy. The Housing Sales Survey is conducted by the Bureau of the Census under contract with the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales of single-family homes were 250,000, according to the new monthly data18 in February 2011. Compared to five years ago, 1,061,000 in 2006 were decreased by 76%. What are the causes to the dramatic decline of number of C25? The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. 2.LITERATURE REVIEW A large number of studies on the housing market have been undertaken recently. In recent years, researchers have devoted much of their effort to identify factors that determine the housing market mechanism (Sander and Testa 2009; Lyytikäinen, 2009; Fratantoni and Schuh, 2003; Taylor, 2007; Bradley, Gabriel, and Wohar, 1995; Vargas-Silva, 2008). Many factors have been cited (Ewing and Wang, 2005; Baffoe-Bonnie, 1998; Huang, 1973; Thom, 1985) as sources of housing market dynamics; among these, housing price (Rapach and Strauss, 2009) and housing starts (Lyytikäinen, 2009; Ewing and Wang, 2005; Puri and Lierop, 1988; Huang, 1973) play a very important role. Rising home prices would tend to result in a decrease in the quantity demanded for housing. However, as Campbell and Cocco (2007) found, a positive relationship may exist if rising home prices increase the perceived wealth of house holds, or lead to relaxed borrowing constraints. Their work also suggested that a reverse causality could result, with relaxed borrowing constraints increasing housing demand and therefore prices. Goodwin (1986) noted that inflation –distorted home prices may actually increase demand by acting as inflation hedges, with homeowners using increased home equity to compensate for rising prices in other areas. Unemployment, by lowering a person’s income, would tend to dampen the demand for new housing. Literature concerning the effects of unemployment on housing have largely ignored this simple assumption and instead focused on the effect homeownership has on unemployment. Oswald (1996) found that a 10 percent increase in homeownership increased unemployment by 2 percent. A study using Spanish data by Garcia and Hernandez (2004) that included extensive demographic variables concerning age, income and marital status found that the previous literature was not relevant for the Spanish market, where high homeownership rates were negatively correlated to unemployment. 17 Measures of new-home sales and of new homes available for sale are prepared monthly by the Bureau of the Census in the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. 18 Gretl is an open-source statistical package, mainly for econometrics. The name is an acronym for Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library. Though it can't be considered as a generalpurpose statistical software (its main functions are time series analysis, regression analysis and various econometric tests), it is very useful thanks also to its perfect integration with R. and with two other statistical packages used in seasonal adjustement: Tramo-Seatss and X-12-Arima (http://freestatistics.altervista.org/en/reviews/gretl.php; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretl#cite_note-3). 266 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Inflation can produce a number of effects on the housing market. By increasing the price of housing, inflation can be assumed to reduce the demand for housing in inflationary times. Yet if used as an inflation hedge, housing demand may actually increase with inflation (Goodwin, 1986). The tax deductible nature of nominal rates of mortgage interest can actually lower the real cost of capital and therefore stimulates demand and homeownership (Rosen and Rosen, 1980), especially given the fact that capital gains are not taxable for first-time home sales. Kearl’s (1979) often cited work stated that inflation’s effect on housing costs serves to lower housing demand, while Feldstein and Summers (1978) observed that inflation decreases housing’s attractiveness as an investment. Hendershott (1980) confirmed the negative relationship between inflation and housing demand, and found that carrying costs were much more important in determining this demand than capital gains. According to Follain (1982), a 1 percent increase in the anticipated inflation rate reduced homeownership by more than three percentage points for all households with a larger effect occurring for non-elderly married couples. Complicit in this finding was the result that higher interest rates necessarily constrain borrowing. Homeownership usually necessitates borrowing, making the interest rate a key factor in the demand for housing. Aspergis (2003) stated that interest rates were the most important factor influencing housing demand, outweighing both inflation and unemployment as an explanatory variable which reinforced a conclusion suggested by Goodwin (1986), among others. Feldstein and Summers (1978) noted that the tax deductibility of mortgage interest plays a role in increasing the real interest rate, with cost depreciation lowering it. Their work also confirmed the Fisher effect link between inflation and nominal interest rates, with the two variables working together to either increase or decrease housing demand. 3.DATA AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Few studies have looked at the factors which caused the decline in the newly one family houses sold (C25) in US. The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of the newly one-family houses sold in US. For this reason, our dependent variable is the new privately owned one-family house sold. People have a tendency to buy a house when the mortgage rate is low. Historically, the new home sales usually have a lagged reaction to changing mortgage rates. Therefore, our first independent variable is long–term mortgage rate. Our prediction to the sign of the slope should be negative. We think people’s income should be another cause to C25. Following the same idea, the unemployment rate will also capture people’s expectation about their future income. If people lose their job, logically, they will not risk borrowing a 30 years mortgage. Another rational thought would be a C25 increase when population increases. So, population in United States is our fourth independent variable. A principle of microeconomics assumes that, if all other factors are equal, as the price of a product or service goes up, demand for that product or service declines. Conversely, if the price declines, demand goes up. Finally, we take the House Price Index for the United States as our last independent variable. Thus, our independent variables include 30 years mortgage rate, real personal income (seasonal adjusted), unemployment rate, population, and house price index. 267 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo After determining our independent variables, we tried to search proper data to answer our question. The sample period is a time series of monthly data beginning February 1, 1980 and ending February 1, 2011. It contains 31 years and a total of 373 data sets. Data are collected from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic research database. The reason why we have chosen Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economic research database as our resource is twofold. First, most the data sets come with a nice graph which is a good source for visualization. Second, all the data sets have a downloading option in excel. This option made our data input session smooth. However, there are still some problems we have encountered during the data gathering process. Variables such as mortgage rate, income, and unemployment rate are collected monthly. But the house price index is collected quarterly; the population is collected annually. In order to have the same statistical measurement, we duplicated the last two variables in a respective monthly time series. Before we started to perform any test, we made some prediction about our variables’ slope sign and the significance of the variables. We predicted that the slopes of real personal income and a population should be positive. It makes sense when incomes increase people have more money to consume. Similarly, population increase should lead to more people needing houses. We also predicted that the slopes of mortgage rate, unemployment rate, and price index should be negative. As mortgage rates increase, people tend to borrow less to purchase houses. When a high unemployment rate occurs, people are more likely to have lower income expectation. The house price index is the average house price for a given period. Normally, we expect that a price increase leads to a demand decrease. That is the reason why the last three slopes are negative. 4.EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS We used Gretl19 as a tool to perform our entire statistics tests. The first test that we run was the Ordinary Less Squares (OLS). We generate a multiple regression model which include our dependent variable, Housesold and our independent variables, HPIndex(β1), Mortgage(β2), Population(β3), Real personal income(β4), and Unemployment(β5). The result of Ordinary Less Squares model is shown in Table 1. Table 1: Ordinary Less Squares model using observations 1-373 (Dependent variable: Housesold) coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value const 2500.60 806.541 3.100 0.0021 *** HPIndex 0.698577 0.592120 1.180 0.2388 Mortgage -20.3564 7.08586 -2.873 0.0043 19Single-family homes are unattached houses and townhouses, including individually owned and operated housing units as well as single-family townhouse condominiums. Currently, some 66 percent of all U.S. housing consists of single or one-family homes (Listokin, D. and Burchell, R.W., Housing (shelter), Microsoft® Student 2009 [DVD], Redmond, WA: Microsoft Corporation, 2008). 268 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo *** Population RPIncome -5.68910 4.53039 0.0380852 -1.256 0.0735233 Unemployment 033 *** -81.4594 6.11404 Mean dependent var 721.3190 S.D. dependent var Sum squared resid 177.8091 11603099 S.E. of regression 0.2100 0.5180 -13.32 R-squared 0.444071 0.451543 Adjusted R-squared F(5, 367) 46 60.43004 P-value(F) 0.6048 2.63e- 238.4758 7.86e- Log-likelihood -2458.645 Akaike criterion 4929.289 Schwarz criterion 4952.819 Hannan-Quinn 4938.633 Rho 0.959309 Durbin-Watson 0.087015 Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 5 (RPIncome) Housesold=2,500.6+0.699HPindex-20.356Mortgage-5.689Population+0.038RPincome81.459Unemployment According to the Table 1, two variables, mortgage rate and unemployment rate are significant at 1% confidence level (p-value). The Gretl result also shows that the R2 is 0.452. The interpretation of R2 is the proportion of the variable explained by the regression model. In this case, we can use our five independent variables to explain 45% of the reason why the new house sold. There are some surprises due to the sign of the slopes. Initially, we predicted the coefficient of population should be positive since more people need more houses. Nevertheless, the coefficient of the population in the OLS model is about -5. And our prediction for house price index coefficient is negative, but here it is positive 0.699. We need to continue a further investigation of this model or our data sets. Before we make any conclusion, we should interpret the OSL model first. The coefficient for the constant is 2,500. It means that when all the independent variables are zero, the number of houses sold is 2,500, holding all other variables constant. The interpretation doesn’t have much economic meaning in this case. The coefficient for the 30-year Mortgage (β2) rate is negative 20.356. The p-value for the β2 is 0.0043. It shows that the β2 is significant at 1% confidence level. The coefficient for the 269 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo unemployment (β5) is negative 81.459. The p-value for β5 is smaller than 0.001. We can say that with 99% confidence level that the unemployment variable is significant. The p-value is 0.2388 for β1. It means that this variable is not significant at even the 10% confidence level. The coefficient for real personal income is 0.038 and the p-value is 0.605. In order to test the monthly effects, we include 11 month dummy variables in our new model. Since our data is time series, we notice that our Durbin-Watson statistic is equal to 0.084. We also performed a Durbin-Watson test to check the autocorrelation error in the model. Table 2 shows the OLS, using observations for 1980:02 - 2011:02. Table 2: Ordinary Less Squares model using observations 1980:02 - 2011:02 const HPIndex Morate Population RPIncome Unemployee dm1 dm2 dm3 dm4 dm5 dm6 dm7 dm8 dm9 dm10 dm11 Mean dependent var Sum squared resid R-squared F(16, 356) Log-likelihood Schwarz criterion rho Durbin-Watson statistic Dependent variable: Housesold (T = 373) coefficient std. error t-ratio 2657.05 868.735 3.059 0.659071 0.607389 1.085 -21.1217 7.30748 -2.890 -6.51837 4.92045 -1.325 0.0499770 0.0790419 0.6323 -81.2761 6.21222 -13.08 -26.2139 45.8000 -0.5724 -25.4406 45.7532 -0.5560 0.327942 47.4696 0.006908 -4.43171 47.3711 -0.09355 -3.23851 46.5742 -0.06953 -0.805373 46.6899 -0.01725 2.85291 46.3886 0.06150 -8.65891 46.2479 -0.1872 -6.80871 46.2805 -0.1471 -6.62623 46.1451 -0.1436 -8.69124 45.9089 -0.1893 721.3190 S.D. dependent var 11572504 S.E. of regression 0.452989 Adjusted R-squared 18.42562 P-value(F) -2458.152 Akaike criterion 5016.971 Hannan-Quinn 0.960583 Durbin-Watson 0.0870146 p-value p-value 0.0024 *** 0.2786 0.0041 *** 0.1861 0.5276 3.30e-032 *** 0.5674 0.5785 0.9945 0.9255 0.9446 0.9862 0.9510 0.8516 0.8831 0.8859 0.8500 238.4758 180.2971 0.428405 1.24e-37 4950.305 4976.777 0.084113 0 According to the Durbin-Watson test, p-value is equal to zero shows that the model has autocorrelation problem. We should correct the model with a proper statistical method. Since the Durbin-Watson statistic equal to 0.087, it shows a positive first order autocorrelation. The following result is the Prais-Winsten correction model, here we took lag-2 time period. Comparing to our lag-1 period result, the lag-2 period has a DW result closer to 2. This is the reason why we took lag-2 time period. Table 3 shows the Prais-Winsten correction model. Table 3: Prais-Winsten, using observations 1980: 04 - 2011: 02 const HPIndex HPIndex_1 HPIndex_2 Morate Morate_1 270 Dependent variable: Housesold (T = 371) Coefficient std. error t-ratio -205.993 239.504 -0.8601 -0.137471 1.03831 -0.1324 0.122039 1.34883 0.09048 -0.257960 1.01868 -0.2532 -29.3433 9.40833 -3.119 -3.93193 22.0249 -0.1785 p-value 0.3903 0.8947 0.9280 0.8002 0.0020*** 0.8584 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Morate_2 32.0894 15.5183 2.068 Population -1.35884 3.21593 -0.4225 Population_1 6.66001 4.68142 1.423 Population_2 -4.20546 3.35179 -1.255 RPIncome 0.0493773 0.0445178 1.109 RPIncome_1 -0.111914 0.0587686 -1.904 RPIncome_2 0.0560686 0.0457059 1.227 Unemployee 1.68362 15.3669 0.1096 Unemployee_1 29.2876 23.5791 1.242 Unemployee_2 -28.4143 15.1497 -1.876 Statistics based on the rho-differenced data: Mean dependent var 722.4717 S.D. dependent var Sum squared resid 734764.0 S.E. of regression R-squared 0.965114 Adjusted R-squared F(17, 353) 827.8281 P-value(F) rho -0.038935 Durbin-Watson Excluding the constant, p-value was highest for variable 20 (HPIndex_1) 0.0394** 0.6729 0.1557 0.2104 0.2681 0.0577* 0.2207 0.9128 0.2150 0.0615* 238.5867 45.62329 0.963434 2.0e-272 2.076334 After the Prais-Winsten correction (Table 3), we noticed that the Durbin-Watson statistic is 2.076. It means that the autocorrelation error is very low. In this new model, current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag -1time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag-1 time period and unemployment rate at lag-2 time period are significant at 10% level. The new R Square, 96%, is much higher than the OLS model. It also has a lower t-ratio. These indications might reveal a multicollinearity relationship existing among the independent variables. When a multicollinearity problem exists in this model, it is possible that each of the individual coefficients may be individually insignificant, but the joint effect may have a significant impact on the dependent variable. Since some independent variables in this model are not significant, we decided to perform a Wald-test to test the joint effect of these factors: Price index, real personal income, Unemployment rate, and population. Ho: β1= β2= β3=β5=β7= β8=β9=β10=β12=β13=β14=0; H1: at least one of the β is not zero. The Wald-test result is below: Wald-test formula: F = [(Essr-Essu) / m]/ {ESS / [N − (k + 1)]} Test statistic: F (12, 353) = 1.94718, with p-value = 0.0282136 Since the p-value of the Wald-test is 0.028, we do have enough evidence to reject the nonhypothesis at 5% confidence level. In another word, the joint effects of the non-significant variable are great than zero. Given the result of Wald test, we should continue an investigation the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Therefore, we carried on a series of Auxiliary Regressions. By using Auxiliary regressions, we can compute VIF which is a measure of the effect of multicollinearity on the variance parameter estimates. The auxiliary regression and VIF result is presented in Table 4. Table 4: The Auxiliary regression and VIF result In-Variables VIF In-Variables VIF 271 HPIndex Mortgage PoPula RPI Unemp 433.35 150.01 188.52 238.63 105.828 HPIndex_1 Mortgage_1 Popula_1 RPI_1 Unemp_1 2084.58 392.72 2093.87 1798.31 213.71 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In-Variables VIF HPIndex_2 Mortgage_2 Popula_2 RPI_2 Unemp_2 1378.97 136.64 1236.1 1208.83 103.95 High VIFs suggest the presence of a multicollinearity problem. When VIF>30 usually indicates a sever multicollinearity. The VIF results for all the variables are great than 30. It means that all the variables are highly correlated. It also means that we have a small sample size. 5.CONCLUSION A house is durable goods and a necessity to most people. The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. The study found that the coefficient for the 30-year Mortgage (β2) rate is negative 20.356. It indicates when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases by 20 thousand, holding all other variables constant. This is not a surprise result for this regression analysis. The mortgage rate plays a critical role in house market. The 30-year mortgage rate decreases more than 50% from 13% in the1980s to 5%-7% in the 2000s. At the same time, the number of houses sold increases about 50% from 541,000 in the 1980s to 1,000,000 in 2006, before the 2007 recession. The coefficient for the unemployment (β5) is negative 81.459. It indicates when the unemployment rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases 81 thousand, holding all other variables constant. This result proves our prediction in the sign of the slope. New houses sold and labor markets tend to go together. When the unemployment rate is low, people have a positive expectation for their future income. These expectations will strengthen the house market. Similarly, when a large number of people lose their jobs, the house market will move slowly. It’s also true that these two factors are strong indicators for the economy. Currently, we have a slow house market and a low employment rate. One of the shocking results is the positive sign of coefficient for the house price index (β1). As we explained previously, we thought when price goes up the demand should go down. But it doesn’t fit in this case. One possible explanation is that this is all a function of rising demand and the rising prices for houses simply reflects the rising demand and the inadequate supply of new construction for homes. The second possibility is that rising prices actually cause an increase in demand. This is because the purchase of a house has two components: the usefulness of the house as a place to live, and the anticipated future income to be obtained from selling the house later at a higher price. Rising home prices increase buyers' expectation of future profits from selling their houses, so they are willing to pay more for a house. The coefficient for real personal income is 0.038 and the p-value is 0.605. This result indicates that income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not significant. This may due to the unemployment rate variable which captures most income effects. In another way, it shows that real personal income and unemployment have a high correlation. For the population variable, the coefficient is a negative number. Even though the p-value indicates that this result is not significant, we still couldn’t figure out the cause of this negative relation. This may be like those weird results that we never understand. In order to test the monthly effects, we include 11 month dummy variables in our new model. The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has significant effects. 272 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo However, from March to July the slopes of the months have positive or lower negative effects. It means that these few months have more houses sold than other months. Consequently, it’s impossible to determine all the causes to the number of new house sold since many factors are interrelated. However, through our series of statistical tests, we could be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag one time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag one time period and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant at 10% level. REFERENCES Aspergis N. (2003) Housing prices and macroeconomic factors: prospects within the European Monetary Union, International Real Estate Review, Vol. 6 No. 1, pp. 63-74. Baffoe-Bonnie J. (1998) The dynamic impact of macroeconomic aggregates on housing prices and stock of houses: a national and regional analysis, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(2), 179–197. Bradley M. G. Gabriel S. A. and Wohar M. E. (1995) The thrift crisis, mortgage-credit intermediation, and Housing Activity. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 27(2), 476497. Campbell J.Y. and Cocco J. (2007) How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 54, pp. 591-621. Ewing B.T. and Wang Y. (2005) Single Housing Starts and Macroeconomic Activity: An Application of Generalized Impulse Response Analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 12(3), 187-190. Feldstein M. and Summers L. (1978) Inflation, tax rules, and the long-term interest rate, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 61-109. Follain J.R. Jr (1982) Does inflation affect real behavior: the case of housing, Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 48 No. 3, pp. 570-82. Fratantoni M. and Schuh S. (2003) Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 35(4), 557-589. Garcia J.A.B. and Hernandez R.J.E. (2004) User cost changes, unemployment and homeownership: evidence from Spain, Urban Studies, Vol. 41 No. 3, pp. 563-78. Goodwin T.H. (1986) Inflation, risk, taxes, and the demand for owner-occupied housing, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 68 No. 2, pp. 197-206. Hendershott P.H. (1980) Real user costs and the demand for single family housing, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, pp. 401-52. Huang D.S. (1973) Short-Run Instability in Single-Family Housing Starts, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 68(344),788- 792. Kearl J.R. (1979) Inflation, mortgage, and housing, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 87 No. 5, pp. 1115-38. Lyytikäinen, T. (2009) Three-rate property taxation and housing construction, Journal of Urban Economics, 65(3), 305-313. 273 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Oswald A. (1996) A conjecture on the explanation for high unemployment in the industrialized nations: part I, Warwick Economics Research Paper 475, University of Warwick, Coventry, pp. 197-206. Puri A.K. and Lierop J.V. (1988) Forecasting Housing Starts, International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 125-134. Rapach D.E. and Strauss J.K. (2009) Differences in housing price forecastability across US states, International Journal of Forecasting, 25(2), 351-372. Rosen, H.S. and Rosen, K.T. (1980) Federal taxes and homeownership: evidence from time series, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 88 No. 11, pp. 59-75. Sander W. and Testa W.A. (2009) Education and Household Location in Chicago. Growth and Change, 40(1), 116–139. Stephenson, c. (2010) Home Sales as an Economic Indicator, http://voices.yahoo.com/homesales-as-economic-indicator-5362321.html?cat=3. Taylor J. B. (2007) Housing and Monetary Policy), NBER Working Paper No. W13682. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1077808. Thom R. (1985) The Relationship between Housing Starts and Mortgage Availability, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(4), 693-696. Vargas-Silva C. (2008) Monetary Policy and the U.S. Housing Market: A VAR Analysis Imposing Sign Restrictions. Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(3), 977-990. Corporate Environmental Reporting: Approaches And Challenges Yasemin Köse Bulent Ecevit University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Business Department, Accounting and Finance 67100, Zonguldak, Turkey E-mail:yekose@gmail.com Abstract Sustainable development issue have become increasingly important to a range of stakeholders and attention has focused on the environmental impacts of corporate activities. Within this context, investors and other stakeholders demand for reliable and accurate information regarding environmental performance. Thus sustainable or environmental reporting has arisen as a challenging and attractive growth area for accounting professionals (Bell and Lehman 1999). One of the most challenging issue in environmental reporting is how and what corporations should report to meet demands of various stakeholders. Reporting about environmental issues may embrace information both in traditional financial reports and in any other reports. For environmental reporting, guidelines have been published by various parties since the beginning of the nineties (IIIEE Report 2002). Considerable 274 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1303 Title A name given to the resource The Factors Which Caused The Decline In The Amount Of The Newly One Family Houses Sold In Us Author Author Ali , Cüneyt Çetin Abstract A summary of the resource. The new privately owned one-family house sold (C25) is recognized as great indicator for economy. The monthly data in February 2011 was 250,000 houses sold. Compared to five years ago, 1,061,000 in 2006 were decreased by 76%. What are the causes to the dramatic decline of number of C25? The purpose of this paper is to analyze factors that determine the decline of number of C25 in US. Therefore, in this study, dependent variable is the new privately owned one-family house sold. Independent variables include 30 years mortgage rate, real personal income, unemployment rate, population, and house price index. The results indicate when the interest rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases by 20 thousand. When the unemployment rate increases 1%, the number of new privately owned one-family houses sold decreases 81 thousand, holding all other variables constant. We thought when price goes up the demand should go down. But it doesn’t fit in this study. Income and house sold have positive relationship but it’s not significant. It shows that real personal income and unemployment have a high correlation. For the population variable, the coefficient is a negative number. Even though the p-value indicates that this result is not significant, we still couldn’t figure out the cause of this negative relation. The result of monthly dummy test indicates that none of the months has significant effects. However, from March to July the slopes of the months have positive or lower negative effects. Consequently, it’s impossible to determine all the causes to the number of new house sold since many factors are interrelated. However, through our series of statistical tests, we could be able to conclude that current mortgage rate is significant at 1% level; mortgage rate at lag one time period is significant at 5% level; both real personal incomes at lag one time period and unemployment rate at lag two time period are significant at 10% level. Keywords: house sold, mortgage rate, income level, unemployment rate, population increases, house price index Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance