139 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/59c63e4f9184a29658e37da3591c302d.pdf 6f9c3b15771ba2925356753867ae9a1e PDF Text Text Stock market price index return forecasting using ANN Gunter Senyurt, Abdulhamit Subasi E-mail : gsenyurt@ibu.edu.ba, asubasi@ibu.edu.ba Abstract Even though many new data mining techniques have been introduced in prediction estimation, there is still no single best solution to all financial problems. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is utilized for predicting price index returns through regression. Ten technical market indicators, seven macroeconomic variables, a couple of other international market indices and a sliding window of ten inputs make up the 30 attributes used in this study. Different combinations of attribute sets is experimented with different ANN model parameter values to find the highest forecasting accuracy. Keywords: Price index return, ANN, Forecasting, Data Mining Techniques. 1. INTRODUCTION While there are certain techniques to forecast in which direction the market would be moving or what price levels would be expected, empirical evidence shows that some models work better than the others in different cases (Satchell, 2005). It is of utmost importance for investors to estimate the trend of the markets as precisely as possible in order to reach the best trading decisions for their investments, so in this context it is in the investor's best interest to use the most accurate time series forecasting model to maximize the profit or to minimize the risk. All in all, it is a quite challenging job to make accurate predictions of stock market index movements and model the time series data, especially in highly volatile markets such as the Turkish stock market. That is due to the fact that stock markets are in general chaotic and complex mechanisms with dynamic, nonlinear and nonparametric variables (Abu-Mostafa and Atiya, 1996). Moreover, markets are influenced by numerous macroeconomic factors, institutional investor choices, human psychology, political events, company policies, other stock market movements and economic affairs (Tan, Quek, and See, 2007). In this study, the ISE National 100 Index (XU-100) has been chosen for data analysis, since the Turkish stock market is a relatively young emerging market and it has presented an outstanding growth rate since its establishment in the late 80's. There is lots of empirical work available in literature on well established and developed markets such as Dow Jones (USA) or DAX (Germany), whereas little research material is available on new emerging markets such as ISE (Kara, Boyacioglu, and Baykan, 2010). The Istanbul Stock Exchange is highly volatile in terms of market returns, a feature which is attracting many local and 367 �international investors worldwide seeking for high return possibilities (Armano, Marchesi, and Murru, 2005). By means of this study, it is aimed at contributing to the demonstration and verification of the XU-100 index price level predictability through ANN. The related predicting performances are compared based on statistical criteria such as relative absolute error (RAE), root relative squared error (RRSE) and the squared value of the correlation coefficient The remaining part of this study is organized into four sections. The next section presents an overview of the theoretical literature while in section 3 the research data and the structure of ANN is described. In section 4, the reports and results of empirical findings from the comparative analysis are given. Finally, the last section contains the concluding remarks. 2. Literature Review There are various ANN methods that can be used in predicting stock price returns and a great deal of research has been conducted on using ANN to forecast financial time series data outputs suggesting ANN as a powerful tool in predicting stock market return (Avci, 2007; Karaatli, 2005). Chen, Leung and Daouk (2003) used the probabilistic neural network (PNN) which showed strong predictive power over other models such as the GMM-Kalman filter and random walk. Diler (2003) who trained back propagation neural networks, based the input attributes on some technical market indicators like momentum, moving average, moving average convergence divergence (MACD), RSI and stochastic %K and forecasted the ISE 100 index direction with % 60.81 accuracy while Altay and Satman (2005) also used ISE-30 and ISE-ALL indices to see the performances of several neural network models. Cao, Leggio, and Schniederjans (2005) effectively proved that multivariate neural networks could outperform the linear models for stock price movement predictions of Shanghai Stock Exchange listed companies. 3. Materials and Methods 3.1 Research Data In this study, all experiments were conducted on WEKA software using its MLP built-in tool to make comparisons of prediction performances based on the chosen dataset. The full dataset is comprised of 30 input variables in total. The first 10 input attributes are technical market indicators as used by Kara, Boyacioglu and Baykan (2010) which are 10-day moving average, 10-day weighted moving average, momentum, stochastic %K, stochastic %D, RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (moving average convergence divergence), Larry William's %R, A/D (Accumulation/Distribution) Oscillator and CCI (Commodity Channel Index). Another 10 inputs are mainly chosen from macroeconomic variables, consisting of USD(sell)-Turkish Lira exchange rate, gold price (close), monthly interest rate, CPI (consumer price index), WPI (wholesale price index), PPI (producer price index), Industrial 368 �Production Index, DJI (Dow Jones) closing price, DAX (Germany) closing price and BOVESPA (Brazil) closing price. These variables are slightly differently chosen than Boyacioglu and Avci (2010)'s input variables. The final 10 inputs are a sliding window of the last 10 elements of XU-100 closing price index. In Yumlu and Gurgen (2005) an input window size of seven was used but it is preferred to use the last 10 elements in this study. For the regression analysis, 10-fold cross-validation was used as the test option in WEKA. 3.2 Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model Artificial neural networks are capable estimation models for financial modeling and prediction (Kara, Boyacioglu, and Baykan, 2010). In this study, a three layered feed-forward ANN structure (a multilayer perceptron) is used to forecast stock market index movements. Multilayer perceptrons (MLP) have one or more layers between input and output layers, called hidden layers, that can approximate any nonlinear relation to any accuracy given sufficiently large number of neurons. The nonlinearity used in the nodes provides MLP with a universal approximation power. “It has been scientifically proved that a three-layered MLP using sigmoidal activation function can approximate well any continuous multivariate function to any accuracy.” (Du and Swamy, 2006). MLP shows high efficiency in function approximation for high-dimensional spaces. It has clear advantage over linear regression methods in that the input dimensionality does not affect the error convergence rate, while conventional linear regression methods suffer from the size of dimensionality. The most popular learning rule in supervised learning is the back propagation learning algorithm which is used to train the neural network. In order to minimize a cost function that is equivalent to MSE (mean squared error) between the desired and actual network outputs, a gradient search method is utilized. An input pattern is introduced to the system and the resulting computed output is compared with the actual given output (target output). The error of each calculated output is propagated backward that establishes a closed-loop control system which adjusts weights by a gradient-descend based algorithm (Du and Swamy, 2006). 4. Results and Discussion The relevance and quality of the data, usually, has a big impact on the performance of the model used. Thus, the choice of data becomes the most important part in forecasting the markets. In this study, all series are real-valued and the input data spans from 02/01/1997 to 31/12/2007. For WEKA testing, the statistical model adequacy metrics relative absolute error (RAE), root relative squared error (RRSE), and the square of the correlation coefficient are utilized, showing the ability of the model to capture the data. A dataset of 10, 20 and 30 inputs are tested in order to see which attribute set have better predictive power over the others. Table 1 and 2 prove the effectiveness of the sliding window when used together with technical indicator inputs creating much lower error values. 369 �Table 1. MLP regression results (% relative absolute error values - % RAE). # of neurons in the hidden layer(n) Input Feature Sets 4 7 10 20 40 50 70 90 1 0.87 1.06 1.15 1.13 1.24 0.94 1.33 1.80 1.61 1.70 1.76 1.88 1.90 1.78 1.83 technical indicators 1.71 1.63 1.74 2 2.32 2 2 2.1 technical indicators + last 10 0.39 0.42 0.42 0.6 0.73 0.75 1.84 1.63 macroeconomic variables + last 10 3.46 3.35 3.33 3.41 3.55 3.60 3.41 8.9 technical indicators + macro economic variables + last 10 technical indicators + macro economic variables Table 2. MLP regression results (% root relative squared error - %RRSE). # of neurons in the hidden layer(n) Input Feature Sets 4 7 10 20 40 50 70 90 1.05 0.95 1.20 1.29 1.24 1.35 1.04 1.53 1.73 1.91 1.79 1.87 1.95 1.98 1.87 1.90 technical indicators 1.86 1.80 1.91 2.22 2.46 2.1 2.13 2.24 technical indicators + last 10 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.69 0.83 0.87 3.1 1.94 macroeconomic variables + last 10 3.81 3.70 3.70 3.79 3.96 4 3.91 18.9 technical indicators + macro economic variables + last 10 technical indicators + macro economic variables 370 �Figure 1. MLP regression result for n=4 (4 neurons in the hidden layer) and 30 features (technical indicators+macroecon. variables+last 10 slid. window). Figure 2. MLP regression for n=4 (4 neurons in the hidden layer) and 30 features (technical indicators+macroecon. variables+last 10 sliding window). 5.CONCLUSION 371 �The issue of accurately predicting the stock market price levels is highly important for formulating the best market trading solutions. It is fundamentally affecting buy and sell decisions of an instrument that can be lucrative for investors. This study focuses on predicting the ISE National 100 closing price levels using ANN based on the daily data from 1997 to 2007. The experimental results give us some very important clues. Firstly, ANN shows superior predicting power in forecasting the stock market price level index. MLP presents 0.39 % RAE in its best case, which is a perfectly good outcome. Even though the prediction performance of ANN outperforms studies alike in literature, it is still likely that the forecasting performance of the model can still be improved by doing the followings: Either the model parameters should be adjusted by thorough experimentation or the input variable sets need to be modified by selecting those input attributes that are more realistic in reflecting the market workings. (Kara, Boyacioglu, and Baykan, 2010) had already proved the significance of using ten particular technical market indicators which gave also good results in this study, as well. Besides, the use of a sliding window of the last ten elements of the ISE 100 index proved to be an effective tool in forecasting the market level and direction. However, the seven macroeconomic variables and three other international market indices were not found to be very useful in this study, which means that more appropriate variables has to be found that may improve the forecasting performance of the models employed that can be a further subject of study for interested readers. Acknowledgement : We sincerely deliver our special thanks to Assist. Prof. Melek Acar Boyacioglu for her graciousness in sharing her knowledge with us. REFERENCES Abu-Mostafa, Y. S., & Atiya, A. F. (1996). Introduction to financial forecasting. Applied Intelligence, 6(3), 205–213. Altay, E., & Satman, M. H. (2005). Stock market forecasting: Artificial neural networks and linear regression comparison in an emerging market. Journal of Financial Management and Analysis, 18(2), 18–33. Armano, G., Marchesi, M., & Murru, A. A. (2005). Hybrid genetic-neural architecture for stock indexes forecasting. Information Sciences, 170, 3–33. Avci, E. (2007). Forecasting daily and sessional returns of the ISE-100 index with neural network models. Journal of Dogus University, 8(2), 128–142. Boyacioglu M.A., Avci D., (2010). An Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for the prediction of stock market return: The case of the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Expert Systems with Applications 37, 7908–7912. 372 �Cao, Q., Leggio, K. B., & Schniederjans, M. J. A. (2005). A comparison between Fama and French’s model and artificial neural networks in predicting the Chinese stock market. Computers & Operations Research, 32, 2499–2512. Chen, A. S., Leung, M. T., & Daouk, H. (2003). Application of neural networks to an emerging financial market: Forecasting and trading the Taiwan Stock Index. Computers & Operations Research, 30(6), 901–923. Colby, Robert W. The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, McGraw-Hill, 2nd. edition, 2003. Diler, A. I. (2003). Predicting direction of ISE national-100 index with back propagation trained neural network. Journal of Istanbul Stock Exchange, 7(25–26), 65–81. Du K.-L., Swamy M.N.S., (2006). Neural Networks in a Softcomputing Framework, Springer-Verlag. Kara Y., Boyacioglu M.A., Baykan O.K., (2010). Predicting direction of stock price index movement using artificial neural networks and support vector machines: The sample of the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Expert Systems with Applications 38, 5311–5319. Karaatli, M., Gungor, I., Demir, Y., & Kalayci, S. (2005). Estimating stock market movements with neural network approach. Journal of Balikesir University, 2(1), 22–48. Satchell, C., (2005). Pattern Recognition and Trading Decisions, McGraw-Hill.Tan, T. Z., Quek, C., & See, Ng. G. (2007). Biological brain-inspired genetic complementary learning for stock market and bank failure prediction. Computational Intelligence, 23(2), 236–261. Tan, T. Z., Quek, C., & See, Ng. G. (2007). Biological brain-inspired genetic complementary learning for stock market and bank failure prediction. Computational Intelligence, 23(2), 236–261. Weka, Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis, Version 3.7.3, The University of Waikato Hamilton, New Zealand, 1999-2010. Yumlu, S., Gurgen, F., Okay, N., (2005). A comparison of global, recurrent and smoothedpiecewise neural models for Istanbul stock exchange (ISE) prediction. Pattern Recognition Letters 26, 2093–2103. 373 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1186 Title A name given to the resource Stock market price index return forecasting using ANN Author Author Gunter , Senyurt Abstract A summary of the resource. Even though many new data mining techniques have been introduced in prediction estimation, there is still no single best solution to all financial problems. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is utilized for predicting price index returns through regression. Ten technical market indicators, seven macroeconomic variables, a couple of other international market indices and a sliding window of ten inputs make up the 30 attributes used in this study. Different combinations of attribute sets is experimented with different ANN model parameter values to find the highest forecasting accuracy. Keywords: Price index return, ANN, Forecasting, Data Mining Techniques. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/50d87109a54e1cef4c3c3c2427a51ffa.pdf e6fe43ecbc349e94ebbc8e326bf0b7ad PDF Text Text Stock market movement direction prediction using tree algorithms Gunter Senyurt, Abdulhamit Subasi E-mail : gsenyurt@ibu.edu.ba, asubasi@ibu.edu.ba Abstract One of the highly challenging businesses today is the task of forecasting the market movements by examining the financial time series data as correctly as possible in order to hedge against the almost incalculable risk involved and to yield better profits for investors. If there was a highly credible estimation technique available giving better results than the traditional statistical tools for financial markets, it would be a great asset for trading decision makers of all kinds such as speculators, arbitrageurs, portfolio fund managers and even individual investors. In this study CART, C4.5 and Random Forest algorithms were used to predict the movement direction of a 10 year Istanbul Stock Exchange index (XU-100). Ten technical market indicators such as momentum, MACD and RSI were used in this study as the feature set. Keywords: Price movement direction, CART, C4.5, Random Forest, forecasting, stock market. 1. INTRODUCTION The complex dynamism of the markets is characterized by the nonlinearity and nonparametric nature of the variables influencing the index movement directions including human psychology and political events. The unpredictable volatility of the market index makes it a highly challenging task to accurately forecast its path of movement. On the other hand, it is crucial for investors to estimate the trend of the markets as precisely as possible in order to reach the best trading decisions for their investments, so in this context it is in the investor's best interest to use the most accurate time series forecasting model to maximize the profit or to minimize the risk. By means of this study, it is aimed at contributing to the demonstration and verification of the XU-100 index movement path predictability through some tree algorithms. The stochastic performance parameter is accuracy and it is defined as the ratio of the correctly classified instances divided by the number of all instances. The remaining part of this study is organized into four sections. The next section presents an overview of the theoretical literature while in section 3 the research data and the structures of tree algorithms CART, C4.5, Random Forest is described. In section 4, the reports and results of empirical findings from the comparative WEKA analysis are given. Finally, the last section contains the concluding remarks. 374 �2. Literature Review CART review The classification tree analysis CART (classification and regression trees) is suggested first by Breiman (1984) and uses the predictor variables splitting rule to build a binary decision tree (Denison, Mallick and Smith, 1998). The CART method is experimented in the credit scoring area, retail lending and evaluation of insurance risks in workers’ compensation showing better results than logistic regression and discriminant analysis (Friedman 1991, Devaney 1994, Lee 2006, Kolyshkina 2002). C4.5 review The C4.5 method is high in efficiency when used for inductive inference. Recent research has shown that this algorithm produces high accuracy in image segmentation (Polat and Gunes, 2009; Mazid, Ali and Tickle, 2010). In another work a hybrid approach including C4.5 is suggested with potentially high outcomes (Jiang and Yu, 2009; Mazid, Ali and Tickle, 2010). It is also used for classification of remote sensing data (Yu and Ai, 2009; Mazid, Ali and Tickle, 2010). Another variant of C4.5 successfully trimmed down the leaf node number and improved accuracy (Yang, 2009; Mazid, Ali and Tickle, 2010). Random Forest review High-dimensional classification and regression problems can be approached by using random forest algorithm that is extensively researched by Breiman (2001). Among the machine learning techniques used to predict markets random forest is quite successful (Dietterich, 2000). Though the practicality of random forest is excellent it is hard to interpret and clarify mathematically (Breiman, 2002; Lin and Jeon, 2006; Biau et al., 2008, Biau and Devroye, 2008). 3. Materials and Methods CART method CART constructs a tree where the data is separated into two parts by binary variable splits. The best divider variable and the best point to split is determined by variance minimization. The CART algorithm can be viewed as a classification procedure consisting of four distinct parts: Part 1: a variance criterion, Part 2: the criterion how good it is split, Part 3: the terminal node class assignments and estimates of resubstitution, Part 4: determining the right tree complexity (Buyukbebeci, 2009). 375 �The root node, internal nodes and leaf (terminal) nodes constitute the CART tree. Two child nodes follow each root and internal node. Each node contains and is defined by the subset of the original learning sample. The splitting of each node into child nodes is characterized by a certain rule depending on the chosen feature. The child nodes inherit subsamples with minimum variance that measures their heterogeneity from parent nodes (Iscanoglu, 2005). The goodness of the splitting procedure is defined by an impurity function that is derived from a a variance function which is applied to each split point indicating the best point for splitting (Iscanoglu, 2005). Gini, Entropy and Twoing are the main rules for binary recursive splitting that are derived from the impurity function (Breiman, Frydman, Olshen and Stone, 1984) C4.5 Method In doing classification with C4.5, the concepts of entropy and correlation coefficient need to be explained in brief. Entropy is a measure of uncertainty among random variables in a collection of data or in other words entropy provides information about the behavior of random processes used in data analysis. Correlation coefficient has its uses as a chief statistical tool in data analysis finding the relationship between variable sets. Different ways of calculations have been introduced to boost the efficiency of the correlation coefficient among which are Kendall, Pearson’s and Spearman’s correlation coefficients.There are several test options with WEKA providing data classification such as training set, supplied test set, percentage split and cross validation. In this paper, cross validation is chosen as the test option (Mazid M., Ali S. and Tickle K. (2010). Random Forest method Random forests are based on conjoining lots of binary regression trees. In the process of growing these large number of regression trees independent subsets of variables are used. Random forests randomly choose variables to split and a bootstrapped sample of the dataset builds the decision trees (Efron and Tibshirani, 1993). When K trees are aggregated the predicted decision is gained as the average value over these K trees. Marking each single tree predictors by , the final outcome is: (x) Research Data In this study, all experiments were conducted on WEKA software using its tree classifiers built-in tool to make comparisons of prediction performances based on the chosen dataset. The dataset is comprised of 10 input variables with 2733 instances in total. These 10 input attributes are technical market indicators as used by Kara, Boyacioglu and Baykan (2010) which are 10-day moving average, 10-day weighted moving average, momentum, stochastic %K, stochastic %D, RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD (moving average convergence divergence), Larry William's %R, A/D (Accumulation/Distribution) Oscillator and CCI 376 �(Commodity Channel Index). The total number of cases or 2733 trading days have 1440 days with increasing direction (advances), while 1293 days show decreasing direction (declines). In the analysis, 10-fold cross-validation was used as the test option in WEKA. 4. Results and Discussion The relevance and quality of the data, usually, has a big impact on the performance of the model used. Thus, the choice of data becomes the most important part in forecasting the markets. In this study, all series are real-valued and the input data spans from 02/01/1997 to 31/12/2007. For WEKA testing, the accuracy or correctly classified instances metric is utilized, showing the ability of the model to capture the data. The dataset with 10 features is tested using CART, C4.5 and Random Forest classifiers in order to see which tree algorithm has better predictive power over the others. The results of the tests can be seen in the Table 1 where CART and Random Forest classifiers have almost identical prediction power, whereas C4.5 has a little less prediction power compared to the other two tree algorithms. Table 1. Tree Classifiers Test Results % Accuracy (correctly classified instances) CART 78.05 C4.5 77.29 Random Forest 78.23 5. CONCLUSION The issue of accurately predicting the stock market price movement direction is highly important for formulating the best market trading solutions. It is fundamentally affecting buy and sell decisions of an instrument that can be lucrative for investors. This study focuses on predicting the ISE National 100 closing price movement directions using tree algorithms based on the daily data from 1997 to 2007. Even though the prediction performance of tree classifiers such as CART, random forest and C4.5 do not really outperform studies alike in literature, it is still likely that the forecasting performance of the models can still be improved by doing the followings: Either the model parameters should be adjusted by thorough experimentation or the input variable sets need to be modified by selecting those input attributes that are more realistic in reflecting the market workings. (Kara, Boyacioglu, and Baykan, 2010) had already proved the significance of using ten particular technical market indicators which gave also about %78 accuracy in this study, as well. More appropriate 377 �variables has to be found that may improve the forecasting performance of the models employed that can be a further subject of study for interested readers. Acknowledgement : We sincerely deliver our special thanks to Assist. Prof. Melek Acar Boyacioglu for her graciousness in sharing her knowledge with us. REFERENCES Biau G., Devroye L., and Lugosi G. (2008), Consistency of random forests and other averaging classifiers, Journal of Machine Learning Research, 9, 2015-2033. Biau G., Devroye L., and Lugosi G. (2008), On the layered nearest neighbour estimate, the bagged nearest neighbour estimate and the random forest method in regression and classification, Technical report, Universite Paris 6. Breiman, L., Frydman, H., Olshen, R.A., and Stone, C.J. (1984), Classification and Regression Trees, Chapman and Hall, New York, London. Breiman, L. (2001), Random forests, Machine Learning, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 45, 532. Breiman, L. (2002), Manual on setting up, using, and understanding Random Forests v3.1, Technical Report, http://oz.berkeley.edu/users/breiman. Buyukbebeci, E. (2009), Comparison of MARS, CMARS and CART in predicting default probabilities for emerging markets, Master Thesis, METU, Ankara. David G.T. Denison, Bani K. Mallick, Adrian F.M. Smith, Biometrika, Vol.85, No.2 (1998), 363-377. Devaney, S. (1994), The Usefulness of Financial Ratios as Predictors of Household Insolvency: Two Perspectives, Financial Counseling and Planning, 5, 15-24. Dietterich T.G. (2000), Ensemble methods in machine learning, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Springer-Verlag, 1-15, 2000. Efron B. and Tibshirani R. J. (1993), An Introduction to the Bootstrap, New York, Chapman and Hall. Friedman, J.H. (1991), Multivariate adaptive regression splines, The Annals of Statistics, 19, 1 ,1-141. Frydman, H., Olshen, R.A., and Stone, C.J., Classification and Regression Trees, Chapman and Hall, New York, London, 1984. Iscanoglu, A. (2005), Credit Scoring Methods and Accuracy Ratio, Master Thesis, METU, Ankara. Jiang S. and Yu W. (2009), A Combination Classification Algorithm Based on Outlier Detection and C4.5, Springer Publications. 378 �Kara Y., Boyacioglu M.A., Baykan O.K., (2010). Predicting direction of stock price index movement using artificial neural networks and support vector machines: The sample of the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Expert Systems with Applications 38, 5311–5319. Kolyshkina I. and Brookes R. (2002), Data Mining Approaches to Modeling Insurance Risk, Report, Price Waterhouse Coopers. Lee T., Chiu C., Chou Y., and Lu C. (2006), Mining the customer credit using classification and regression tree and multivariate adaptive regression splines, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 50, 1113-1130. Lin Y. and Jeon Y. (2006), Random forests and adaptive nearest neighbours, Journal of American Statistical Association, 101, 578-590. Mazid M., Ali S. and Tickle K. (2010), Improved C4.5 Algorithm for rule based classification, Recent Advances in Artificial Intelligence, Knowledge Engineering and Data Bases, Australia. Polat K. and Gune S. (2009), A novel hybrid intelligent method based on C4.5 decision tree classifier and one against-all approach for multi-class classification problems, Expert Systems with Applications, vol.36, 1587-1592. Yang X.Y. (2009), Decision tree induction with constrained number of leaf node, Master Thesis, National Central University, Taiwan. Yu M. and Ai T.H. (2009), Study of RS data classification based on rough sets and C4.5 algorithm, In Proceedings of the Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE) Conference Series. Weka (1999-2010), Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis, Version 3.7.3, The University of Waikato Hamilton, New Zealand. 379 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1187 Title A name given to the resource Stock market movement direction prediction using tree algorithms Author Author Gunter , Senyurt Abstract A summary of the resource. One of the highly challenging businesses today is the task of forecasting the market movements by examining the financial time series data as correctly as possible in order to hedge against the almost incalculable risk involved and to yield better profits for investors. If there was a highly credible estimation technique available giving better results than the traditional statistical tools for financial markets, it would be a great asset for trading decision makers of all kinds such as speculators, arbitrageurs, portfolio fund managers and even individual investors. In this study CART, C4.5 and Random Forest algorithms were used to predict the movement direction of a 10 year Istanbul Stock Exchange index (XU-100). Ten technical market indicators such as momentum, MACD and RSI were used in this study as the feature set. Keywords: Price movement direction, CART, C4.5, Random Forest, forecasting, stock market. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/9c182a63d08cee3f9752eafc6c688555.pdf 52f1610764d957fa0ba92cf97afec066 PDF Text Text M.Jenks and R.Burgess , Sustainable Urban Forms for Developing Countries, Spon Press, London. Cliff Moughtin , Peter Shirley ,(2005)Urban design: Green dimensions. 2nd edition, Amsterdam Simon Guy, Steven A. Moore,(2005) Sustainable Architectures. Cultures and Natures in Europe and North America, New York Polese, M. and Stren, R. (2000) The social sustainability of cities: diversity and management of change, University of Toronto Press, Toronto Mike Jenks , Colin Jones (2010), Dimensions of the Sustainable City (Future City) ,2nd edition, New York Matthew E. Kahn,( 2006) Green cities : Urban Growth and the Environment, Washington Adam S. Weinberg, Allan Schnaiberg, David N. Pello , ( 2000 ) Urban Recycling and the Search for Sustainable Community Development , Princeton University Press Jon Lang, ( 2005 ) Urban design: a typology of procedures and products John Eade ,Christopher Mele ( 2002 ) Understanding the city. Contemporary and future perspectives Sallie Westwood ,John Williams ( 1997 ) Imagining cities: scripts, signs, memory, London Tio2 Reinforced Al2o3 Composites Gunhan Bayrak1, Ferit Ilgar2, Ediz Ercenk3, Senol Yilmaz3, Uğur Sen3, Volkan Gunay4 1Sakarya University, Arifiye Vocational School, 54580 Arifiye, Sakarya 2Alpha Foundry and Machine Industry Co., Organized Industrial Zone, Avar Street, No: 1 06935 Sincan / Ankara 3Sakarya University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, Esentepe Campus, 54187 Sakarya, Turkey, 4TUBITAK-MAM, Material Institute, 41470 Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey Abstract In this study, the effect of TiO2 addition on properties of alumina ceramics was investigated. The prepared commercial Alcoa alumina reinforced 0-15 % TiO2 were ground in ball mill for 2 h by wet milling and then powders were shaped dry pressing. After shaping operations, the 277 �samples were sintered 1500-1650 °C for 2 h. Firing shrinkage, relative density, flexural strength and hardness tests were performed and also for characterization x-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were utilized. It was seen that the TiO2 addition to alumina has effected on properties of alumina, significantly. Keywords: Alumina, TiO2, Ceramic Composites. 1. INTRODUCTION Alumina is a consider material for refractory application which has high melting point as 2000 ±30 °C. Also this material was resisted to acids, bases and many liquid metals and glass. Moreover its heat and electrical conducting was very low. Due to have this insulating properties, alumina firstly use in automotive industry as sparking plug. Today alumina is using as cutting tools for machining operation and as a resistant material to corrosion in the chemical industry and as a high temperature materials for heating systems. Furthermore another usage of alumina is special purpose in optic and medical technique application (Ilgar 2008, Rao 2000). Alumina is a ceramic oxide material. Although there are various modifications of Alumina, α–Al2O3 has commercial use (Toy 1994). As a thin film of TiO2 have many application areas because of superior properties of electrical, chemical and optical. Due to Titanium dioxide has very high melting point, it has many optical applications and optic circuit as coating material. Moreover, titanium dioxide can be used as bio-material and implant due to have high corrosion resistance and biocompatibility (Bardakci 2007). At the present study, the effect of TiO2 addition on properties of alumina was investigated Mixtures of alumina-TiO2 were shaped by dry pressing and were sintered at 1500-1650 °C temperatures. After sintering, some physical tests were applied to TiO2 reinforced alumina ceramics and characterized by XRD and SEM. 2. EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE In this study, the raw materials were alumina powder (0.4 µm) produced by the Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa A16-SG, USA) and high purity TiO2 (0.1 µm) ceramic powders. TiO2 was added to commercial Alcoa alumina powder in different proportions (0, 5, 10, 15, in wt %). The ratios of alumina-TiO2 compositions and the marking system are shown in Table 1. Table 1. Alumina-basalt sample codes Sample code Alumina (wt. %) TiO2 (wt. %) A0 278 100 - �A5 95 5 A10 90 10 A15 85 15 In order to ensure a homogeneous mixture, each composition was ball-milled in rubber-lined ceramic jars for 2 h using alumina balls and distilled water as the milling media and then sieved to pass through 38 µm. After drying in an oven at 110 °C for 24 hours, the mixtures were granulated in moist conditions and then semidry pressed at 100 MPa to prepare rectangular shaped specimens with the size of 5X8X40 mm. After shaping process, all samples were dried in an oven at 110 °C for 24 hours and were sintered in an electric furnace with a heating rate of 5 oC/min at 1500, 1550, 1600 and 1650 oC for 2 h. Then, the sintered samples were cooled to room temperature in the furnace. The flow chart of experimental procedure and the macro images of the sintered specimens were given in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2, respectively. Figure1. The flow chart of the experimental procedure After sintering, the sintered samples were subjected to physical tests such as firing shrinkage, relative density, flexural strength test by 3-point bending method and hardness. The crystalline phases of the sintered samples were identified by X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD, JEOL MDI/JADE6) with Cu Kα (λ = 1.54056 A˚) radiation. The micro structural characterization of fracture surfaces of sintered samples were examined using a JEOL JSM 6600 scanning electron microscopy (SEM). 279 �Figure 2. Macro images of test specimens 3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION The firing shrinkage values of TiO2 reinforced alumina ceramics depend on sintering temperatures and TiO2 addition is shown in Figure 3. The firing shrinkage was increasing in all specimens with increasing sintering temperature due to sintering effect by dimensional reductions. The firing shrinkage of A0 is less than TiO2 doped samples. Al2TiO5 phase is observed in TiO2 reinforced alumina ceramics as given in the literature Soo et al (2003). Al2TiO5 phase was also detected in our studies given below. Al2TiO5 are generally spherical or angular particles. They were along the grain boundary and triple junction points as expressed in literature (Sathiyakumar 2008). This effect can be seen in SEM microstructures given below. It is probably that the firing shrinkage of TiO2 reinforced alumina ceramics was prevented by Al2TiO5 phase. 20 A0 A5 A10 A15 Firing Shrinkage, % 18 16 14 12 10 1500 1550 1600 1650 Sintering Temperature, °C Figure 3. The firing shrinkage test results versus sintering temperature 280 �The relative density values of TiO2 reinforced alumina ceramics depend on sintering temperatures and TiO2 addition is shown in Figure 4. When the sintering temperature increases, the porosities remain into the grains of alumina ceramics as a result of rapid grain growth. This is obstacle for reaching to theoretical density of alumina ceramic and causes decreasing of densities (Barsoum 1997,Kalpakjian 1997). Since the density of Al2TiO5 phase is lower compared to densities of alumina and TiO2, densities increases with increasing TiO2 addition Soo et al.(2003). 100 Relative Density 95 90 85 80 A0 A5 A10 A15 75 70 1500 1550 1600 1650 Sintering Temperature, °C Figure 4. The relative densities depending on sintering temperature The flexural strength of composites is given in Figure 5. With the increase in sintering temperature, the highest strength value was obtained in the TiO2 free alumina ceramic sintered at 1550 °C. The decreasing of strength was observed via increasing of temperature depending on the grain growth and the pores remaining into grains (Barsoum 1997,Kalpakjian 1997). The flexural strength values of the samples including TiO2 are lower than the samples not including TiO2. Investigation of the effect of TiO2 addition on flexural strength is compressive process in literature, the flexural strength value increases up to the addition of TiO2 2 % and it decreases above TiO2 4 % addition (Sathiyakumar 2002). The flexural strength values of the samples including TiO2 are in agree with the literature values and it is lower compared to the samples not including TiO2. 281 �400 A0 A5 A10 A15 Flexural Strength, MPa 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1500 1550 1600 1650 Sintering Temperature, °C Figure 5. The flexural strength values versus sintering temperature As seen in Figure 6, high hardness results were observed in high densification conditions. The highest hardness was determined in the 96.05 relative density value of alumina ceramic sintered at 1550 °C. It is correlated with the literature [Yildirim 2002]. The hardness of the samples including TiO2 is not high as much as TiO2 free alumina ceramics. It is reported that Al2TiO5 and TiO2 phases in alumina matrix cause increasing of hardness Soo et al. (2003),Anerisis et al. (2007). Small amount of TiO2 addition has positive role on sintering in alumina composites and the presence of this second phase in matrix provides better mechanical properties. The hardness increases with increasing TiO2 content in alumina matrix composites, it is correlated with the literature Soo et al. (2003). 20 A0 A5 A10 A15 Hardness, GPa 18 16 14 12 10 1500 1550 1600 1650 Sintering Temperature, °C Figure 6. The hardness measurements depending on sintering temperature -Al2O3 phase was determined in the all samples coded A0. In the samples including TiO2, TiO2 (rutile) and Al2TiO5 phases are other phases determined by XRD. As seen in Figure 7, Al2TiO5 phase formed via the reaction between Al2O3 and TiO2 at 1280 °C was seen as lighter zones in grain boundaries and intersection points of the grains. Abnormal grain growth was not observed in the alumina ceramic including TiO2 compared to 282 �alumina ceramics. Finer grain structure was determined in these samples due to presence of Al2TiO5 phase as obstacle against grain growth. (a) (b) (c) (d) een as lighter zones in grain boundaries and intersection points of the grains in SEM microstructure. Finer grain structure was determined in composites due to presence of Al2TiO5 phase as obstacle against grain growth. REFERENCES Ilgar F. (2008) ―The Investigation of The Effect of TiO2 Addition on Sintering Behavoiur of Alumina‖, MSc Thesis, Sakarya University, SAKARYA. Rao, P.,Iwasa M. And Isao K. (2000) ―Properties of Low-temperature-sintered High Purity -alumina Ceramics Scrathing Properties of Alumina Based Ceramics‖, Journal of Material Science Letters, 19, 543-545. Toy, Ç. and Baykara, T. (1994) ―Ceramic As a Material of 21.th Century‖, The Journal of Science and Technique, TUBITAK, 317, ANKARA. 283 �Bardakçı, S. (2007) ―The Determination of Optical Properties of TiO2 Thin Film Prepared with Sol-Jel Method ‖, MSc Thesis, Sakarya University, SAKARYA. Soo, W.L. Carlos, M. Joaquin L.O. Seung, H.K. Tohru, S. Koichi N. and Bernard, J.H. (2003) ―Tribological and Microstructural Analysis of Al2O3/TiO2 Nano composites to Use in the Femoral Head of Hip Replacement‖, Wear, 255, 1040-1044. Sathiyakumar, M. and Gnanam, F.D. (2002) ―Influence of MnO and TiO2 Additives on Density, Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Al2O3‖, Ceramics international, 28, 195-200. Barsoum, M.W. (1997) ―Fundamentals of Ceramics‖, Mc Graw Hill, New York, USA. Kalpakjian, S. (1997) ―Manufacturing Processes for Engineering Materials‖, Prentice Hall 4. Edition, USA. Yıldırım, İ. (2002) ―The effect of Production Condition and Composition on The Strength Properties of Al2O3 and SiC‖, PhD Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, ISTANBUL Aneziris, C.G. Scharfl, W. and Ullridch, B.(2007) ―Microstructure Evaluation of Al2O3 Ceramics with Mg-PSZ and TiO2 Additions‖, Journal of the European Ceramic Society, 27, 3191-3199. Glass Foams Containing Fly Ash And Sheet Glass By Adding Calcite As Foaming Agent Ediz Ercenk1, Gunhan Bayrak2, Senol Yilmaz1, Volkan Gunay3 1Sakarya University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Metallurgical and Materials Engineering, Esentepe Campus, 54187 Sakarya, Turkey, 2Sakarya University, Arifiye Vocational School, 54580 Arifiye, Sakarya 3TUBITAK-MAM, Material Institute, 41470 Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey Abstract Glass foam is a porous isolation material used for heat isolation. In this study, the possibilities of glass foam production using calcite as a foaming agent was investigated. The mixture was prepared 10% wt. of waste window glass and 90% wt. Seyitömer thermal power plant fly ash. 2.5 to 10% wt. calcite was added to mixture and pressed under 75 MPa pressure by uniaxial cold pressing to obtain cylindrical specimens. Pressed samples sintered at 750-950 °C temperature range for 1 hour according to differential thermal analysis (DTA) results. The effect of calcite addition and sintering temperature on the porosity, density, compressive strength, microstructure and crystalline phases were investigated. It was determined that the 284 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1257 Title A name given to the resource Tio2 Reinforced Al2o3 Composites Author Author Gunhan , Bayrak Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, the effect of TiO2 addition on properties of alumina ceramics was investigated. The prepared commercial Alcoa alumina reinforced 0-15 % TiO2 were ground in ball mill for 2 h by wet milling and then powders were shaped dry pressing. After shaping operations, the samples were sintered 1500-1650 °C for 2 h. Firing shrinkage, relative density, flexural strength and hardness tests were performed and also for characterization x-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were utilized. It was seen that the TiO2 addition to alumina has effected on properties of alumina, significantly. Keywords: Alumina, TiO2, Ceramic Composites. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/10fd7497b99cc2fbb04523c422a0dc08.pdf 9c0e572f27870833c0be10e5cacf8493 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 2 – Perceptions category averages. Table 3 – Perceived obstacles for optimisation of the impact measurement process LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - Size of MCOs according to portfolio size and number of active loans. Web Technologies In Education GünayKarli1, Miljković Adnan2 1International Burch University, Sarajevo – B&H 2Bosna Sema – Educational Institutions, Sarajevo – B&H Abstract Web technologies are rapidly taking over the traditionally used desktop applications. Depending on the purpose of the use, web technologies can provide more flexible and scalable solutions. In this paper we describe the specific use of web technologies in B&H. IT in the educational field in B&H is still under rise, and several projects have been developed.This paper describes a project called Smart School that has a rise as an alternative to the current solutions available on the market. Smart School meets the requirement set for a stable, scalable and secure application. 1.INTRODUCTION In order to develop and deliver an application in the educational field few aspects should be taken into consideration. A modern application in education would allow usage by several different groups of users, including teacher/professors, students, administrative workers, head of department and other decision making groups. Web applications provide the ability to build a solution, which can be used from any location and from any device in world. In this paper we describe the information systems used in education for management of student’s information, such as marks, attendances, comments and any other resource that can be utilized to track the achievement/progress of a student. In this paper we focus only on solutions used in primary and secondary schools. For specific examples and comparison, an application already used in education is evaluated, and as it do now satisfy the current needs, a detailed work is presented on an alternative 168 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo solution called “Smart School”, which has been developed and is currently used by 8 schools in 4 cantons of B&H. “Smart school” is a web application that manages all school resources, providing access to school employees such as teacher to populate data about a student, and on the other side provides feedback to students and parents. “Smart School” differentiates itself from the other solutions, by having a much easier and friendly user interface allowing simple and fast access. A special commitment has been made in the field of security, where all data is encrypted and passed through secure layers. The security level in “Smart School” is similar to the one used in the banking industry. “Smart School” for the first time in the educational system in B&H introduces the 2-step verification process for the user authentication by utilizing security tokens for generating one time password. 2.CURRENT STATE OF IT IN B&H Information technologies are constantly emerging in all sectors of businesses in B&H. Many businesses use now the latest technologies and software available on the global market to perform everyday tasks easier, faster and with more quality. This is mainly due to the fact that businesses have to evolve and keep on innovating in order to stay competitive over the competition. Unfortunately this is not the case in the educational sector in B&H. The primary and secondary schools are back behind the use of IT technologies in education. The primary and secondary education on a large base still depends on the traditional way of teaching with the conventional methods. During the school year 2005, the Sarajevo Canton Ministry of Education, introduced for the first time in B&H, an information system for schools in Canton Sarajevo CS called Education Management Information System EMIS. The purpose of EMIS is to collect data from schools, and stores it on centralized databases. The collected data is used for statistical purposes by the Ministry(UTIC, 2012). EMIS collects all data about a school including the students, staff, premises and school inventory. EMIS offers the possibility to print student transcripts at the end of the school year. In order to achieve the following, schools are entering student marks after the end of each term. Today after more than 6 years EMIS has retain its functionality in Canton Sarajevo. The main drawbacks of EMIS are its limited functionality, where it is just a statistical application, which has the ability to collect data twice a year. This is mainly due to the complicated use of the application and the lack of knowledge by the staff in schools. The Ministry started with the campaign of basic education of teachers in CS just last October 2011(Logosoft, 2011). This campaign included basic education of teachers with the use of Microsoft line of products such as Windows 7 and Office 2010. Bosna Sema as a private educational institution has recognized the need to elevate the current educational system in B&H to a higher and more quality level. Bosna Sema has 8 primary and secondary educational schools in four cantons in B&H(Bosna Sema, 2011). Following the fact that the primary and secondary schools are mandatory in B&H for all students, the 169 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo need to involve even more the parents in the everyday aspect of a school arose. Bosna Sema recognized the need to constantly provide feedback of student’s performances and receive feedback from the parents. This private institution has 3 schools in the Canton Sarajevo where it is using and supporting EMIS for those schools. Unfortunately EMIS does not satisfy the needs of this private institution, toprovide an educational system that is transparent and able to involve the parents in the process of education. Following these requirements Bosna Sema has started a joint venture with an IT company to development an application that will meet all of the requirements set for the new and better tracking of educational system in B&H. The project started in 2010 under the name Smart School. 3.SMART SCHOOL Smart school is a set of applications that manage all school resources, providing access to school employees such as teacher to populate data about a student, and on the opposite side provides feedback to students and parents. On top of those groups of users, additional decision making users are involved as well. Smart School provides detailed reports about school wide data to school principals, and executive boards. The implementation of Smart School in schools in different cantons of B&H, allows this project to be compatible and satisfy each canton’s possible specific need. Smart School closely follows to cover and give access to each parent and student. Following this guideline, parents and students can receive feedback from Smart School with different mechanisms, including access by internet and mobile phones. 3.1.Smart School Architecture Smart school is built as three-tier architecture, being composed of a data, application and presentation tier. In order to cope with the scalability, performance and efficiency, each of those reside on separate hardware with high speed interconnection in between. The bottom layer which represents the data tier is where the databases reside. The data tier acts independently from the above tiers. Smart School uses MySQL for the databases. MySQL is the world's most popular open source database software, used by hundred thousands of companies all around the world(MySQL). This database software covers the current needs for Smart School. The next tier is the application tier, which covers all of the business logic in Smart School. The application tier communicates with the database in the data tier. The application tier exposes different methods for the above tier though web services. This tier always authenticates each remote request and if accessed by an authorized user, presents the transformed data from the data to the presentation tier. This tier handles request from different presentation applications, and offers different type of data representation. Depending on the type of request the web services can return the data in either Extensible 170 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Markup Language XML or JavaScript Object Notation JSON. The traditional XML allows the representation of data to be both human and machine readable, but often contains repeated tags that describe data. XML is acceptable when exchanging data between high speed connections, but has downsides when it comes to transfer between slow connections, as the case when using mobile internet over mobile providers. In this kind of transfer it is very important to transfer the data as lightweight as possible. In order to cope with this kind of speed and bandwidth issues, JSON is used to return data in Smart School. JSON is very similar to an array or vector in major programming language. It is language independent and many languages include default implementation to read and parse this format of data. In Smart School, JSON is primarily used for data exchange between the mobile apps and this tier. Smart School has several implementation of the presentation tier. This tier first authenticates with the application tier, and then communicates with different requests and replies. The following components make up the presentation tier: Administration Web and Parent/Student Web. The administration web component is a web application that represents the user interface for the entire Smart School. This component allows the authorized users to manage the entire system from a web app. The application exchanged the information with the web services. As the school users have different privileges and overview of the system from the one of parents and students, two separate components have been created. The Parent/Student component has only modules that are directly related to a single student overview. This separation is primarily for security reason and potential bugs in the system, but as well to offer a simplified overview of modules just for parents and students. 3.2.Smart School Feedback Modules In order to cover the targeted user groups of Smart School, the following main feedback modules have been introduced: Student performance/tracking Module Reporting Module Parent/Student Module 3.2.1.Student performance/tracking module This module is used by the user groups that are consisted of subject teachers. The teachers are assigned to subject from the administrative module, and can only manage students enrolled in the teacher’s subjects. From this module the teacher can send and receive messages from parent and students. The teacher can easily and quickly get and overview of the subject average, and get details about the students above and beyond the given thresholds in average. All information from this module can be exported as spreadsheet and managed in locally on 171 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo computer from any spreadsheet tools such as Microsoft Excel or LibreOffice Calc. If a teacher is assigned the role of a class teacher (class manager), additional functionalities are available. Those functionalities enable the class teacher to manage task such as getting collective reports about an entire class, preparing data for parent meeting and scheduling parents meetings by sending bulk emails and short messages to parent mobile phones. Additionally the class teacher is responsible for the behavior tracking of each student in the assigned class. 3.2.2.Reporting Module In order to get overall feedbacks from any application, a reporting module is necessary. The reporting module in Smart School is a collection of predefined reports that given detailed insights about data in the system. The reporting module is used by different groups of users, with the ability to access different types and levels of reports. Apart the predefined reports, a dynamic form allows to create reports on the fly with custom joined data. At the first level, users with teacher privileges can query reports with data about their teaching subjects, and enrolled students. The next level allows the school principals to get school wide report. In those reports the school principal has detailed overview of all teachers, subjects and students. The reports are always collecting direct data from the databases, so they always show the accurate image of the data. In order to provide a higher level of reports over multiple schools, additional two more levels were added. Bosna Sema, which has several schools in several cantons use those levels, one for the head of departments, and one for the executive boards. For the purpose of making decision on the top level, the executive board has to have detailed insight reports for any board meeting. For this purpose, a higher level in the reporting module has been introduced. This level has access to all schools combined, offering information from a single students, and teacher to the entire school performance. This allows the executive board to have accurate and up to date information, upon which they can make crucial decisions. The Cantonal Ministries of Education in B&H could benefit from this level of reporting. Although each school is sending collective data about schools to the Offices of Statistics in B&H, the information on the official Canton web sites are more than outdated. An example can be given for the Canton of Tuzla, where the information about high schools is presented from 01.12.2003, which is outdated for 9 years(Vlada TK, 2003). A similar case is with the ZE-DO Canton, where on the 1st October 2010, a detailed document about the high schools in canton has been presented on the official web site of canton from May 2006(ZE-DO Canton, 2010). Smart School can allow the cantons to have these varieties of reports instantly on any given date. Only with accurate and up to date reports can suitable decisions be made. 172 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3.2.3.Parents/Student Module Smart School provides an in-depth feedback to parents and students. During the initial design many aspects have been taken into consideration about the traditional way on how the parents and students get the performance information from their schools. Following these practices one of the initial requirements has been to provide first a quick and easy access to information for the preparation of a parent meeting. Smart School here allows the class teacher to collect instantly up to date data for a meeting. Also the class teacher can schedule a meeting through the application and send instant SMS and emails to parents with time and place of the meeting. In order to provide constant access to parents about the performance of their child additional methods have been introduced. One method involved a web application access for parents over the internet, and the second one allows the parent to get information on mobile phone via short messages. 4.Security in Smart School Smart School uses the latest technologies in order to provide secure access to sensitive data. The database contains privileged information about all students’ achievements as well as personal information about the employees from the institutions who utilize Smart School. To achieve a maximum level of security, all communication is exchanged through secure channels over Secure Sockets LayerSSL. Each time a user accesses the web application, a secure connection is established from the client browser to the server, meaning all information passed from the client to the server is encrypted and cannot be seen anywhere in between those two. Continuing with our security layer, with the exchange of data through SSL all communication from the client to the server is secured, but we still have one more possible point which can be vulnerable, and through which unauthorized access can be gained. By design Smart School as a web application can be accessed from any place in the world through any Internet Service Provider ISP. This is primary allowed for the purpose that teachers and professors are not limited with the location from where they can access data. Following this design it is possible, with the use of a username and password to access the web application anytime from anywhere. In case a malicious user gets the real user access details, the malicious user could logon to the web application and perform some unauthorized actions in the application. There are many possible scenarios on getting access details from an authorized user; one includes the fact that many users use similar username and password with multiple services on the internet, such as for email address, social platforms, bulletin boards, forums, chats, online shopping cards and many other. If one of those services gets compromised, the malicious user could try the same password for some other services, and then possibly get access to our application. 173 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Another possible security scenario is that the client computer is infected with a Trojan virus, or some other malicious application such as key logger, which would send access details to a malicious user, where again a possible treat against the system could be used. In order to prevent unauthorized access even when knowing the username and password, Smart School implements an additional layer of security by introducing two-factor authentication. Two-factor authentication requires the user to authenticate with more than just a username and password. There are many variations of the multifactor authentication that includes even more that two factors. Smart School uses a two-factor authentication system. The first factor in the authentication is the well-known username and private password by the user and the second factor is the process of generating an additional verification code called One Time Password OTP, which is generated by a security token. Upon each logging the security token will generate an OTP which will be valid just for once. The security token is based on the Time-based One-time Password Algorithm TOTP, where each token based on its internal serial number on the given time generates a number(TOTP: Time-Based One-Time Password Algorithm). At the time of the logging process the server performs the same algorithm and then compares the entered OTP with the one generated on the server side. The server has a match table between each token and user, so the server ‘knows’ on which serial to perform the algorithm. This security layer prevents possible unauthorized access to the web application, even if the user gets access to the username and password of the account. This method of authentication is widely used by banks for online banking.OTP is becoming more popular among everyday used web services. Google has introduced the so called 2-step verification process for accessing any Google protected resource(Google, 2012). Similarly Amazon implemented AWS multi-factor authentication when accessing the Amazon Web Service infrastructure(AWS, 2012). 5.CONCLUSION Although the majorities of components have been developed and are already in use, Smart School still undergoes under changes and copes to adapt with the new functionalities. All users of the system including the parents and students are constantly providing feedback which guides to a more quality application. The main goal behind this project wasto offer a unique application that will covers and satisfy all of the user’s requests, following the educational legislations in B&H. This goal has been meet. Currently the project is only implemented in Bosna Sema educational institutions, however future plans includes offering this application to all primary and secondary schools in B&H. The future expansion also includes the development of rising mobile applications for two major smartphone mobile platforms used in B&H that consist of iOS and Android. 174 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo BIBLIOGRAPHY AWS. (2012, 04 07). AWS Multi-Factor Authentication. Retrieved from AWS Multi-Factor Authentication: https://aws.amazon.com/mfa/ Bosna Sema. (2011). About Bosna Sema - Educational Institutions. Retrieved from http://bosnasema.ba/en/about-us/d-9hd4f5zm Google. (2012). 2-step verification. Retrieved from http://support.google.com/a/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=175197 2-step verification: Logosoft. (2011, 10 27). Logosoft započeo edukaciju nastavnika informatike u KS. Retrieved from http://www.logosoft.ba/prodaja.aspx?docid=49 MySQL. (n.d.). About MySQL. Retrieved from http://www.mysql.com/about/ TOTP: Time-Based One-Time http://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc6238 Password Algorithm. (n.d.). Retrieved from UTIC. (2012, 03 14). About EMIS. Retrieved from http://www.emis.edu.ba/page/Opcenito-osistemu-EMIS.aspx UTIC. (n.d.). Education Management Information Sistem. Retrieved 01 29, 2012, from http://www.emis.edu.ba/page/Opcenito-o-sistemu-EMIS.aspx Vlada TK. (2003, 12 1). PODACI O UČENICIMA - SREDNJE ŠKOLE TK. Retrieved from http://www.vladatk.kim.ba/Ministarstva/MONKS/nastavnici/UceniciSS.htm ZE-DO Canton. (2010, 10 1). Informacija o nastavnicima i stručnim saradnicima u srednjim školama. Retrieved from http://www.zdk.ba/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&task=download&id=62 175 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1166 Title A name given to the resource Web Technologies In Education Author Author Gunay, Karli Abstract A summary of the resource. Web technologies are rapidly taking over the traditionally used desktop applications. Depending on the purpose of the use, web technologies can provide more flexible and scalable solutions. In this paper we describe the specific use of web technologies in B&H. IT in the educational field in B&H is still under rise, and several projects have been developed.This paper describes a project called Smart School that has a rise as an alternative to the current solutions available on the market. Smart School meets the requirement set for a stable, scalable and secure application. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8e11fd53365bd7b6e585e97d9f3f01ee.pdf ceec5c894426c2e35cd438d66a9c1e99 PDF Text Text Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms in Recognation of Regulatory Region of DNA Günay Karlı, Şenol Doğan, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, International Burch Universiy, Sarajevo, BIH E –mails: gkarli@ibu.edu.ba – gkarli@yahoo.com, sdogan@ibu.edu.ba Keywords: algorithms. Data mining, machine learning, supervised learning, classification, rule-based Abstract Data mining has become an important and active area of research because of theoretical challenges and practical applications associated with the problem of discovering interesting and previously unknown knowledge from very large real world database. These databases contain potential gold mine of valuable information, but it is beyond human ability to analyze massive amount of data and elicit meaningful patterns by using conventional techniques. In this study, DNA sequence was analyzed to locate promoter which is a regulatory region of DNA located upstream of a gene, providing a control point for regulated gene transcription. In this study, some supervised learning algorithms such as artificial neural network (ANN), RULES-3 and newly developed keREM-IREM rule induction algorithms were used to analyse to DNA sequence. In the experiments different option of keREM, RULES-3 and ANN were used, and according to the empirical comparisons, the algorithms appeared to be comparable to well-known algorithms in terms of the accuracy of the extracted rule in classifying unseen data. 516 �1.INTRODUCTION Data mining is the process of finding hidden patterns from data. It has wide range of applications such as, predicting stock prices, identifying suspected terrorists and scientific discovery like analysis of DNA microarray (Hanuman et al., 2009) Researchers can now routinely investigate the biological molecular state of a cell measuring the simultaneous expression of tens of thousands of genes using DNA microarrays (Shelke and Deshmukh, 2007). Datamining can be used in the classification of proteins by basing on its primary structures (sequences) is presented. It contains four steps which include textmining, feature selection, datamining and classification. The sequences of protein are collected in a file (Mhamdi and Elloumi, 2004). Artificial neural networks are among the newest signal-processing technologies in the engineer's toolbox. The field is highly interdisciplinary. In engineering, neural networks serve two important functions: as pattern classifiers and as nonlinear adaptive filters. Well-known ANN algorithms are based on the notion of perceptron (Rosenblatt, 1962). Perceptrons can only classify linearly separable sets of instances. If a straight line or plane can be drawn to separate the input instances into their correct categories, input instances are linearly separable and the perceptron will find the solution. If the instances are not linearly separable learning will never reach a point where all instances are classified properly. Multilayered Perceptrons (Artificial Neural Networks) have been created to try to solve this problem (Rumelhart et al., 1986). Properly determining the size of the hidden layer is a problem, because an underestimate of the number of neurons can lead to poor approximation and generalization capabilities, while excessive nodes can result in overfitting and eventually make the search for the global optimum more difficult. An excellent argument regarding this topic can be found in (Camargo and Yoneyama, 2001). Kon & Plaskota also studied the minimum amount of neurons and the number of instances necessary to program a given task into feedforward neural networks (Kon and Plaskota, 2000). There are several algorithms with which a network can be trained (Neocleous and Schizas, 2002). However, the most wellknown and widely used learning algorithm to estimate the values of the weights is the Back Propagation (BP) algorithm. Feed-forward neural networks are usually trained by the original back propagation algorithm or by some variant. Their greatest problem is that they are too slow for most applications. One of the approaches to speed up the training rate is to estimate optimal initial weights (Yam and Chow, 2001). Another method for training multilayered feedforward ANNs is Weight-elimination algorithm that automatically derives the appropriate topology and therefore avoids also the problems with overfitting (Weigend et al., 1991). Genetic algorithms have been used to train the weights of neural networks (Siddique and Tokhi, 2001) and to find the architecture of neural networks (Yen and Lu, 2000). There are also Bayesian methods in existence which attempt to train neural networks. Vivarelli & Williams compare two Bayesian methods for training neural networks (Vivarelli and Williams, 2001). 517 �In recent years, there has been a growing amount of research on inductive learning. In its broadest sense, induction (or inductive inference, supervised learning) is a method of moving from the particular to the general - from specific examples to general rules (Quinlan, 1986). Induction can be considered the process of generalizing a procedural description from presented or observed examples. The purpose of inductive learning is to perform a synthesis of new knowledge, and this is independent of the form given to the input information. RIPPER is a well-known rule-based supervised learning algorithm (Cohen, 1995). It forms rules through a process of repeated growing and pruning. Other fundamental learning classifiers based on decision rules include the AQ family (Michalski and Chilausky, 1980) and CN2 (Clark and Niblett, 1989). Bonarini gave an overview of fuzzy rule-based classifiers (Bonarini, 2000). Fuzzy logic tries to improve classification and decision support systems by allowing the use of overlapping class definitions. Furnkranz (2001) investigated the use of round robin binarization (or pairwise classification) as a technique for handling multi-class problems with separate and conquer rule learning algorithms. The PART (Frank and Witten, 1998) algorithm infers rules by repeatedly generating partial decision trees, thus combining the two major paradigms for rule generation − creating rules from decision trees and the separate-and-conquer rule learning technique. RULES family algorithms (Aksoy, 1993) obtain the IF-THEN rules from a given set of examples. REX-1 (Akgöbek et al., 2006) uses the entropy value to give a greater priority to the attributes with higher importance and obtain more general rules. Segments of genome coding for messenger ribonucleic acids (mRNAs), transfer ribonucleic acids (tRNAs), ribosomal ribonucleic acids (rRNAs) are called genes. Among these mRNAs determine the sequence of amino acids in proteins. The mechanism is simple for the prokaryotic cell where all the genes are converted into the corresponding mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) and then into proteins. Genome analysis (Gene finding) typically refers to the area of computational biology that is concerned with algorithmically identifying stretches of sequence, usually genomic DNA, that are biologically functional. This especially includes protein-coding genes, but may also include other functional elements such as RNA genes and regulatory regions. Gene finding is one of the first and most important steps in understanding the genome of a species. Computational Gene prediction is relatively simple for the prokaryotes where all the genes are converted into the corresponding mRNA and then into proteins. The process is more complex for eukaryotic cells where the coding DNA sequence is interrupted by random sequences called introns. Some of the questions which biologists want to answer today are (Jayaram and Bhushan, 2000).: Given a DNA sequence, what part of it codes for a protein and what part of it is junk DNA. 518 �Classify the junk DNA as intron, untranslated region, transposes, dead genes, regulatory elements etc. Divide a newly sequenced genome into the genes (coding) and the non-coding regions. In this study, short sequence of DNA is used as an example set to train the keREM, ANN and RULES-3. The features of the DNA sequence are the nucleotides (a,g,c,t). The learning system is requested to generate a classifier that identifies these sequences whether or not they are in the one of functional DNA regions (coding regions). 2.INTRODUCTION TO GENE A gene is a segment of nucleic acid that contains the information necessary to produce a functional product, usually a protein. Genes consist of a long strand of DNA (RNA in some viruses) that contains a promoter, which controls the activity of a gene, and a coding sequence, which determines what the gene produces. The genes are made up of a coding alphabet of 4 nucleotides made up of 4 bases: Adenine(A), Thymine (T), Guanine (G) and Cytosine (C). The bases Adenine (A) and Guanine (G) are Purines; while Thymine (T) and Cytosine (C) are Pyrimidines. 2.1. Universal Genetic Code There four bases Adenine (A), Thymine (T), Guanine (G) and Cytosine (C) As there are 20 amino acids if we use 2 codons for an amino acid we will short of the representation as 42 = 16. So we use three codons to represent all the 20 amino acids as 43=64. As there are only 20 amino acids and 64 codon representation most of the codon are degenrative. 'ATG' is the start codon and TAG, TGA, TAA are stop codons usually. 2.2. Genome Organisation Genome organization refers to the sequential, not the structural organization of the genome. Besides the coding exons, the non-coding DNA in Eukaryotes may fall in the following classes. Introns: They are DNA sequences inserted between the exons and found in the ORF (Open Reading Frames). They are spliced after the first level of transcription. Most introns are junk inserted within genes. Pseudogenes. 'Dead', non-functional copies of genes present elsewhere in the genome, but no longer of any use. 519 �Retropseudogenes: Like pseudogenes, but have been processed, i.e. lack introns produced by the action of reverse transcriptase (RT) on mRNA, and subsequent incorporation of the cDNA into the genome. Transposons: Jumping genes, which splice themselves in and out of the genome (in DNA form) randomly, by the action of transposase. Retrotransposons: Transcribed into an mRNA, which encodes an RT enzyme, which then copies the mRNA back to DNA and incorporates it into the genome. In fact in humans only 1.5% of the entire genome length corresponds to coding DNA. This 1.5% codes for about 27,000 genes, which in turn code for proteins that are responsible for all the cellular processes 2.3. What are Promoters? A promoter is a regulatory region of DNA located upstream (towards the 5' region) of a gene, providing a control point for regulated gene transcription. 3 . ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN) Information processing paradigm that is inspired by the way biological nervous systems, such as the rain, process information. The key element of this paradigm is the novel structure of the information processing system. It is composed of a large number of highly interconnected processing elements (neurones) working in unison to solve specific problems. ANNs, like people, learn by example. An ANN is configured for a specific application, such as pattern recognition or data classification, through a learning process. Learning in biological systems involves adjustments to the synaptic connections that exist between the neurones. This is true of ANNs as well (Domingos, 1995). There are different types of neural networks, which can be distinguished on the basis of their structure and directions of signal flow. Each kind of neural network has its own method of training. Generally, neural networks may be differentiated as follows. feedforward networks (one-layer networks and multi-layer networks ) recurrent networks cellular networks Principles of training multi-layer neural network use backpropagation. 520 �The project describes teaching process of multi-layer neural network employing backpropagation algorithm. To illustrate this process the three layer neural network with two inputs and one output, which is shown in the picture below, is used: Figure 1: Multi-Layer Neural Network Each neuron is composed of two units. First unit adds products of weights coefficients and input signals. The second unit realise nonlinear function, called neuron activation function. Signal e is adder output signal, and y = f(e) is output signal of nonlinear element. Signal y is also output signal of neuron. Figure 2: Teaching Process of Multi-Layer NN To teach the neural network we need training data set. The training data set consists of input signals (x1 and x2) assigned with corresponding target (desired output) z. The network training is an iterative process. In each iteration weights, coefficients of nodes are modified using new data from training data set. Modification is calculated using algorithm described below: Each teaching step starts with forcing both input signals from training set. After this stage we can determine output signals values for each neuron in each network layer. 4.INDUCTIVE LEARNING Machine learning algorithms automatically builds a classifier by learning the characteristics of the categories from a set of classified documents, and then uses the classifier to classify documents into predefined categories. (Khan et al., 2010). In recent years, there has been a growing amount of research on inductive learning. In its broadest sense, induction (or inductive inference) is a method of moving from the particular to the general from specific examples to general rules. Michalski explains inductive learning as: Induction can be considered the process of generalizing a procedural description from presented or observed examples The purpose of inductive learning is to perform a synthesis of new knowledge, and this is independent of the form given to the input information. Inductive learning includes learning from examples and learning from observation and discovery. In order to form a knowledge base using inductive learning, the first task is to collect a set of representative examples of expert decisions. Each example belongs to a known class (for example, + or -) and is described in terms of a number of attributes, (for example "hair" or "eyes"). These examples may be specified by an expert as a good tutorial set, or may come from some neutral source such as an archive. The induction process will 521 �attempt to find a method of classifying an example, again expressed as a function of the attributes that explains the training examples and that may also be used to classify previously unseen cases. (Quinlan, 1993).. The outcome of an induction algorithm is either a decision tree or a set of rules. (Quinlan, 1986).. 4.1. RULES-3 Inductive Learning Algorithm RULES-3 (Aksoy, 1993) is a simple algorithm for extracting a set of classification rules from a collection of examples for objects belonging to one of a number of known classes. An object must be described in terms of a fixed set of attributes, each with its own range of possible values, which could be nominal or numerical. For example, attribute "length" might have nominal values {short, medium, long} or numerical values in the range {-10, 10}. An attribute-value pair constitutes a condition in a rule. If the number of attributes is Na, a rule may contain between one and Na conditions. Only conjunction of conditions is permitted in a rule and therefore the attributes must be all different if the rule comprises more than one condition. This algorithm can be summarized as follows: Step1. Define ranges for the attributes, which have numerical values and assign labels to those ranges. Step2. Set the minimum number of conditions (Ncmin) for each rule. Step3. Take an unclassified example. Step4. Nc=Ncmin-l Step5. If Nc<Na then Nc=Nc+i Step6. Take all values or labels contained in the example. Step7. Form objects which are combinations of Nc values or labels taken from the values or labels obtained in Step6. Step8. If at least one of the objects belongs to a unique class then form rules with those objects; ELSE go to Step5. Step9. Select the rule, which classifies the highest number of examples. Step10. Remove examples classified by the selected rule. Step11. If there are no more unclassified examples, then STOP; ELSE go to Step3. Here Nc is the number of condition(s) for each rule and Na is the number of attributes for each example. 522 �4.2. keREM Inductive Learning Algorithm In this section, an algorithm devised for Inductive Learning, newly developed keREM (Inductive Rule Extraction Method) is introduced, which was developed to obtain the IFTHEN rules from a given set of examples. It discards the pitfalls encountered in the some inductive learning algorithms. It uses the value of gain function, to give a greater priority to the attributes with higher importance and obtain rules that are more general. The algorithm can be summarized as follows: Step1. In a given training set, probability distribution and class distribution rate of the each attribute-value pairs is computed. Step2. Power of classification is computed for each attribute in the data set. Step3. Class-based Gain of the each attribute-value pairs is calculated by using computed probability distributions, class distribution rate and power of classification. Step4. Any value of which probability distributions one for n=1 can be selected as a rule. The attribute-values are converted into rules. The classified examples are marked. Step5. Go to step8. Step6. Beginning from the first unclassified example, combinations with n values are formed by taking the attribute-values whose gain is bigger. Step7. Each combination is applied to all of the examples in the set of examples. From the values composed of n combinations, those matching with only on class are converted into a rule. The classified examples are marked. Step8. If all of the examples in the training set are classified then go to step11. Step9. Perform n=n+1 expression. Step10. If n<N the go to step6 Step11 if there is more than one rule representing the same examples, the most general one is selected. Step12. End. 4.3. IREM Inductive Learning Algorithm Newly developed IREM (Inductive Rule Extraction Method) is introduced In this section, which was developed to obtain the IF-THEN rules from a given set of examples. It uses the class-based entropy value, to give a greater priority to the attributes with higher importance and obtain rules that are more general. The algorithm can be summarized as follows: 523 �Step1. In a given training set, probability distribution of the each attribute-value pairs is computed. Step2. The entropy is computed for each attribute and value. Step3. By using computed probability distributions and entropy, class-based entropy is calculated. Step4. Any value of which class-based entropy equals zero for n=1 can be selected as a rule. The values are converted into rules. The classified examples are marked. Step5. Go to step8. Step6. Beginning from the first unclassified example, combinations with n values are formed by taking the value of the attributes whose class-based entropy is smaller. Step7. Each combination is applied to all of the examples in the set of examples. From the values composed of n combinations, those matching with only on class are converted into a rule. The classified examples are marked. Step8. If all of the examples in the training set are classified then go to step11. Step9. Perform n=n+1 expression. Step10. If n<N the go to step6 Step11 if there is more than one rule representing the same examples, the most general one is selected. Step12. End. 5. EXPERIMENTS Using ANN and RULES-3 systems, experiments were performed for the classification of promoter DNA region. For this purpose promoter data-sets available in the University of California-Irvine’s Repository of Machine Leraning Databases were used (Merz and Murphy, 1996). 5.1. Promoter Recognition Experiments with ANN Using different option of ANN, 30 sets of experiment were performed on the promoter data set of E.coli DNA. 86 (approximately %80 of the data set.) randomly selected instances of the original data set were used as a training data in the experiments (Nayır and Karlı, 2009). In order to built, train and test an ANN to recognize promoter region of the DNA, the above Matlab code was written. By changing “newff()” function’s arguments, some ANN with different number of hidden layer and neurons were designed and tested. Using the code above, an ANN with two hidden layers, the first hidden layer with neuron number of 10 and 524 �the second hidden layer with neuron number of 5 was designed. Activation functions of the input layer and hidden layers were ‘tansig’. And activation function of the output layer was ‘purelin’. Minimum error rate (%95) was gained in this option of the ANN. The following table represents error rate of the ANN with one, two and three hidden layers in our experiments. Figure 3: Performance of the NN at 100 epochs. Figure 4: Performance of the NN at 694 epochs. Table 1: Experiment results of ANN with one hidden layer. 525 �No of set of Layer Exp. 1 2 3 The numb Epoc er of h neuro n Input 10 1.Hidde n 5 Output 1 Input 50 1.Hidde n 25 Output 1 Input 100 1.Hidde n 50 Output 1 Min. error rate 947 35 244 25 1404 20 Table 2: Experiment results of ANN with two hidden layer No of set of Layer Exp. The Min. number Epoch error of rate neuron Input 25 1.Hidden 10 2.Hidden 5 Output 1 1 526 694 5 �2 Input 50 1.Hidden 25 2.Hidden 10 Output 1 Input 100 1.Hidden 50 2.Hidden 25 Output 1 3 851 25 554 10 Table 3: Experiment results of ANN with three hidden layer. No of set of Layer Exp. 1 2 527 The numb Epoc er of h neuro n Input 25 1.Hidde n 10 2.Hidde n 5 3.Hidde n 3 Output 1 Input 50 1.Hidde n 25 Min. error rate 785 45 978 20 �3 2.Hidde n 10 3.Hidde n 5 Output 1 Input 100 1.Hidde n 50 2.Hidde n 25 3.Hidde n 10 Output 1 889 30 5.2. Promoter Recognition Experiments with RULES-3 Using different values of number of condition, three sets of experiments were performed on the promoter data set. 40 randomly selected instances of the original data set were used as a training data in the experiments. When Number of condition was set to 1, rules were produced (Karlı, 2000). Using the extracted rule, 11 instances could not be recognized. So accuracy on test data was 90,1. Using different options, three sets of experiments were performed on the promoter data set. As expected, Rules-3 algorithm produced a rule set that classified all training examples correctly. One important conclusion may be driven from table 4.3 is that while number of condition was decreased, extracted rule number decreased. However, accuracy on test data increased. The highest accuracy on test data was gained when number of condition was equal to 1. Table 4: Results for promoter data set with different values of Nc. 528 �Numb Numbe Numbe Accurac Accurac er of r y y of r of conditi exampl extract on on test es on ed training data(%) rules data(%) 3 40 38 100 61,8 5.3 2 40 25 100 76,4 1 40 18 100 90,1 Promoter Recognition Experiments with keREM The most important features of keREM algorithm is that it can compute class-based gain of each attribute-value in a given training set. In this context, first, probability distribution, class distribution rate and power of classification of each nucleotide forming DNA sequence were computed in terms of promoter and non-promoter classes. In the next step, Class-based Gain was computed for each value in the DNA sequence data set by using computed probability distributions, class distribution rate and power of classification. In this way, rules produced by the algorithm were formed by attribute-value whose information value is maximum. The rule set constructed by the method was applied to DNA test set. And the error rate was satisfactory, %97.17 5.4. Promoter Recognition Experiments with IREM The most important features of IREM algorithm is that it can compute class-based entropy of each attribute-value in a given training set. In this context, first, probability distributions of each nucleotide forming DNA sequence were computed in terms of promoter and nonpromoter classes. In the next step, entropy of training set was found. But, the entropy does not contain class information for the value-attribute pairs. Thus, using the entropy of the training set and the probability distributions of the attribute-value, class-based entropy was computed for each value in the DNA sequence data set. In this way, rules produced by the algorithm were formed by attribute-value whose information value is maximum. The rule set constructed by the method was applied to DNA test set. And the error rate was satisfactory, %98.1 529 �6.CONCLUSION Although from a biochemical view point DNA is a complex molecule, from a computer science view point DNA can be considered a very long string over four alphabets A, C, G T. One of the most important step in analysis of a new DNA sequence is finding out whether or not it contains any genes, and if so, determining exactly where they are. For locating functional region in newly sequenced DNA data keREM, IREM, artificial neural network (ANN) and RULES-3 can be used in such a way that known region in mapped sequences is given as input to the systems. Then, the output classifiers of the keREM, IREM, ANN and RULES-3 are used to locate functional regions of newly sequenced data. In this study, keREM, IREM, ANN and RULES-3 were used to locate promoter region of DNA data. Some portions of DNA serve as protein coding regions. However, some portions serve as regulatory markers for the processes that convert coding regions into protein. One of these regulatory regions is a promoter that occurs before coding regions to signal where the transcription process begins. To recognize promoter region, some sort of experiments were performed by using different options of keREM, IREM, ANN, different numbers of hidden layers and neurons, and RULES-3, In the first sort of experiments, one hidden layer with the number of neuron ranging from 5 to 50 was used in ANN. In these experiments, minimum error rate was 15. In the second sort of experiments, two hidden layers were used, the first hidden layer with the number of neuron ranging from10 to 50 and the second hidden layer with the number of neuron ranging from 5 to 25. And minimum error rate of these experiments was 5. This was the best result gained from the experiments. In the last sort of experiments three hidden layers were used, the first hidden layer with the number of neuron ranging from 10 to 50, the second hidden layer with the number of neuron ranging from 5 to 25 and the last hidden layer with the number of neuron ranging from 3 to 10. And minimum error rate was 20. Using different options of RULES-3, three sets of experiments were performed on the promoter data set. As expected, Rules-3 algorithm produced a rule set that classified all training examples correctly. The highest accuracy on test data was gained when number of condition was equal to 1. It is observed that, rules formed by IREM were more general than that of keREM, RULES-3 and ANN. Only 2 examples could not be recognized out of 106 example test set. As a result, it was determined that the error rate of the IREM was lower than the error rate of the keREM, RULES-3 and ANN for DNA sequence test set. Table 5: The errors of some machine learning algorithms on promoter data set. System Errors Comments REX-1 0/106 Inductive L.A 530 �ILA 0/106 Inductive L.A IREM 2/106 Class-based entropy keREM 3/106 Class-based gain KBANN 4/106 A hybrid ML system ANN 6/106 ANN with hidden layer BP 8/106 Standard backpropagation with one layer RULES3 11/106 Nc=1 O'Neill 12/106 Ad hoc tech. from the bio. lit. NearNeigh 13/106 A nearest neighbours algorithm ID3 19/106 Quinlan's builder ANN 21/106 ANN with hidden l. two decision three As it may be driven from table 5, using the same data set, error rate of accuracy on the test data of the REX and ILA is 0/106, which is the minimum error rate. 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Computational Mechanics Publications. 533 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1211 Title A name given to the resource Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms in Recognation of Regulatory Region of DNA Author Author Gunay, Karli Abstract A summary of the resource. Keywords: Data mining, machine learning, supervised learning, classification, rule-based algorithms. Abstract Data mining has become an important and active area of research because of theoretical challenges and practical applications associated with the problem of discovering interesting and previously unknown knowledge from very large real world database. These databases contain potential gold mine of valuable information, but it is beyond human ability to analyze massive amount of data and elicit meaningful patterns by using conventional techniques. In this study, DNA sequence was analyzed to locate promoter which is a regulatory region of DNA located upstream of a gene, providing a control point for regulated gene transcription. In this study, some supervised learning algorithms such as artificial neural network (ANN), RULES-3 and newly developed keREM-IREM rule induction algorithms were used to analyse to DNA sequence. In the experiments different option of keREM, RULES-3 and ANN were used, and according to the empirical comparisons, the algorithms appeared to be comparable to well-known algorithms in terms of the accuracy of the extracted rule in classifying unseen data. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),T Technology (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6d9d365f3823dd7ae8ca90f3030d19a7.pdf 3a4f2b13630ba15816bcf0e9f723295f PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Antalya As Destination In Convention Tourism Gonca Manap Davras Süleyman Demirel University,Isparta, Turkey goncamanap@edu.edu.tr Abstract Convention tourism is a type of alternative tourism consisting of the total of activities which emerge as a result of the organization of meetings. Individuals convene in line with the developments in science and technology and the increasing need for specialization, in order to learn new technologies, to explain and present their scientific work, or to engage in an exchange of information. This situation introduces convention tourism, an important type of alternative tourism activity. Growing rapidly, this type of tourism came to tone into other types of tourism and now possesses an important share in world tourism. There are about 9 thousand conventions all over the world each year both at national and international levels, and as a result, 75 million people travel for these conventions. Convention tourism, which partially solves the problem of seasonal tourism and has the potential to bring high revenues, is next to leisure tourism, an important alternative tourism activity highly preferred in Turkey. After Istanbul, Antalya now wants to have a say in the market of international conventions. This study displays the nature of convention tourism in Turkey and in the world with numeric data. It indicates the characteristics of convention tourism as well as the expectations of attendees from the convention centers. The chosen convention city shall be above a certain level so as to fulfill these expectations. With this aim, Antalya, which wants to play a bigger role in the convention market, has been thoroughly examined through a SWOT analysis. Keywords: Alternative tourism, Convention tourism, Antalya 1.INTRODUCTION The tourism sector has started to increase its variety according to demands. One of the alternative tourism types, convention tourism has been rapidly growing in the past few years. According to the data in 2011 by the Union of International Associations (UIA), every year about 9 thousand conventions are organized in 218 countries and 75 million people travel to attend them. Convention tourism, whose participants spend 3.5 times more than normal tourists, has a direct effect on 37 sectors and an income share of 30% in the world tourism market.(http://ifm.ibb.gov.tr/Calismalar/Documents/altyap%C4%B1%20_komitesi_cal%C4%B1 %C5%9Fma_raporu_taslak.pdf: reaching date: 5.4.2012) During this process of development, Turkey has been lucky in this competition due to its firstclass accommodation and meeting facilities, its transportation opportunities to the world’s principal cities, its cultural and natural beauties, its perfect climate, and its more appropriate 84 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo prices compared to alternative destinations. Using this opportunity, Turkey has been increasing its share in the convention tourism sector, which has been growing rapidly. In this context, many initiatives were undertaken mainly in Istanbul and in other cities such as Izmir, Antalya, and Ankara, where convention and visitor centers have been established. In “Turkey’s Tourism Strategy for 2023” and “Action-Plan 2007-2023,” implemented by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, Ankara, Bursa, Konya and Mersin are designated as convention cities, and Istanbul, Antalya, Izmir, Ankara, Adana, Gaziantep and Trabzon as important expo cities. (Ersun & Aslan, 2009: 107 ) This study first explains the scope of convention tourism and its characteristics, and examines the development of the convention market in the world and in Turkey. Then it evaluates Antalya, an important touristic city in Turkey, according to the supply in convention tourism by using the SWOT analysis method. 2.CONVENTION TOURISM According to the United National World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the number of 980 million people traveling on earth in 2011 will increase to 1.6 billion in 2020, and the 919 million dollars of revenue from tourism in 2010 will increase to 2 trillion dollars. (http://www.tourexpi.com/tr-intl/news.html~nid=42076: reaching date: 12.4.2012) In Turkey, which started its touristic activities in 1980, the number of 326 thousand tourists in 1980 increased to 31.5 million people in 2011, and the revenue reached 17 million dollars. According to UNWTO, after France, the USA, Spain, China, Italy, and England, Turkey is 7th in the list of first 10 countries which attracted the most visitors in 2011. (www.airporthaber.com/turkiyedunya-yedincisi--32450h.html: reaching date: 5.4.2012) The original concept of tourism has been changing every day in terms of form and content, and the demands and expectations of tourists have been also shifting. The trio of sea-sun-sand has been yielding its place to alternative tourism activities. Therefore, national, regional, and urban leaders, who realize the local, regional, national and international value of tourism, choose to diversify touristic activities with alternative tourism options and build their plans accordingly. One of the important types of tourism growing in the world in the past few years is convention tourism. The increasing number of conventions every year demonstrates the bright future of this type of tourism.(Kozak, Kozak & Kozak, 2001: 21) Convention tourism is the total of events and relations regarding travel and accommodation that emerge out of individuals convening in a location that is not their usual lodging or working place, in order to have an information exchange on a topic that requires specialization, such as scientific developments or occupational subject matters. (www.kobifinans.com.tr/tr/sektor/011610/21645: reaching date: 5.4.2012) Convention tourism does not consist of only the travels for conventions. Seminars, symposiums, workshops etc. are also included within the scope of convention tourism. For this reason, “meeting tourism” is used instead of “convention tourism.” The conventions organized nationally and internationally may be on many topics. (Pechlaner, Zeni & Raich, 2007: 32 ) Convention tourism is part of business tourism and of the individual business trips or convention and fair visits, which belong to that category as well. For this reason, it comes into existence with the change and trends in cultural topics, leisure time, workforce, health, and education levels. 85 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo While on one hand benefiting from the infrastructure of tourism, on the other, it can balance the low seasons when traditional touristic activity is stagnant or low. Traditional tourists and convention delegates are not only service chain operations, but also bring wealth to the economy of the region. 2.1 The Characteristics of Convention Tourism With its multi-faceted nature, convention tourism is differentiated from classical tourism in the following ways:(www.kobifinans.com.tr/tr/sektor/011610/22676: reaching date: 8.4.2012)          Conventions are more concentrated in certain periods of the year and because they usually take place outside the conventional touristic season, they affect the occupancy rate in hotels positively. Convention tourism and convention hotel management need a strong infrastructure in terms of technical equipment and other constituents. Fixed investments such as the construction of meeting facilities and convention centers are of a high cost and are usually undertaken by the state or the local administration. Because convention tourism is organized outside the general tourism season and because it involves a wide range of touristic services, it is the type of tourism which generates the highest income. It requires detailed and professional preparations such as simultaneous translation, special programs, preparation and distribution of invitation cards, various transfers, hotel reservations, arrangement of meetings for delegates and the media, organization of the convention center, and preparation of tours for accompanying persons and spouses. The organization of an international convention is considered as an important promotion tool for a country. For success in convention tourism, not only the related agencies, but all society shall support the initiative, and there shall be collaboration among different sections of society. For success, this type of organizations require a certain level of quality and capacity regarding transportation, infrastructure, accommodation, convention center and facilities, personnel, security, peripheral services, environmental and cultural riches. The level of income of convention participants (delegates) is quite high and all their expenses are covered by the organization they are representing. According to TURSAB, they spend 3 times more than a conventional tourist.(www.siyasiforum.net/viewtopic. php?f=13&t=12232: reaching date: 5.4.2012) 2.2 Convention Tourism in the World and in Turkey According to International Congress and Convention Association’s (ICCA) data in 2010, Turkey, this hosts 160 international conventions, places 20th in world ranking. The United States, Germany, Spain, England, and France occupy the first five spots. When examined at a city level, in 2010, Istanbul placed 7th in world ranking with 109 conventions before Vienna, Barcelona, Paris, Berlin, Singapore and Madrid, and rose from 13th place to 6th in European rankings. (http://iccaworld.com/dcps/doc.cfm?docid=1246: reaching date: 5.3.2012) 2 million convention participants who came to Turkey stayed for an average of three days and spent 4 million Euros. 86 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Compared to 10 years ago, this 5-times increase escalated Turkey 14 steps and Istanbul 24 steps in the convention race. Now, 80% of the conventions in Turkey take place in Istanbul. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism took this concentration into consideration and added other cities as locations where conventions and meetings can be organized: Ankara, Antalya as well as Mersin, Izmir, Konya and Bursa. Despite all this data and these efforts, and despite all the natural and cultural attractions and riches that Turkey has, it is not possible to say that the country benefits adequately from convention tourism. It is obvious that the efforts in this sector should be more deliberately carried out and more carefully organized. Convention tourism cannot emerge by itself in this country. Factors of attraction are of utmost importance in convention tourism. Natural factors such as the geographical location of the region, natural beauties, climate, cultural and historic riches as well as infrastructure and superstructure shall be present. The locations where special investments will be made for convention tourism shall definitely possess convenient facilities for local and foreign visitors to meet their needs such as accommodation, eating-drinking, leisure etc. For a city to earn its title as an international convention city, facilities such as transportation, infrastructure, accommodation, convention centers, security, peripheral services, as well as natural and cultural riches shall be above a certain quality and capacity. Any malfunction that may arise in these constituents can also hinder the success of the conventions.(Aymankuy, 2006: 45) According to the statement of Istanbul Convention and Visitors’ Bureau, 1.5 million tourists, among the 9 million who visited Istanbul, came for the purpose of meetings and conventions. According to the data of Association of Turkish Travel Agencies (TURSAB), the number of tourists who came to Antalya for meetings and conventions is around 200 thousand. All around Turkey, about 2 million convention participants lodged in 2010. This number is equal to the number of tourists who visited Turkey in 1980s.(www.siyasiforum.net/viewtopic.php? f=13&t=12232: reaching date: 5.4.2012) 3.CONVENTION TOURISM DESTINATION: ANTALYA According to the 2010 data of Antalya Convention Bureau, a total 86 conventions were organized in Antalya, 40 international, 46 national. With an 81% increase, this number rose up to 156 in 2011. For international conventions, the increase is 40%, and 117% for national conventions. Accordingly, a total of 156 conventions, 56 national and 100 international, were organized in Antalya in 2011. In 2010, 37,045 people participated in these meetings. In 2011 as well, it is observed that conventions were concentrated in Belek, and as in the previous year, most conventions were in the area of medicine. In addition, many conventions were organized in the following areas: agriculture, sports, pharmaceutics, animal husbandry, statistics, chemistry, biology, psychology, physics, technology, cosmetics, law, aquaculture, geography, and archeology. Based on the present statistics from Antalya Convention Bureau, it is possible to observe that the convention sector has been fast growing in Antalya, and that the developments shall take place at a higher speed in order to fulfill the needs of this sector. 87 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3.1 SWOT Analysis of Antalya In Terms Of Convention Tourism The establishments and foundations which decide to organize a convention determine the location of the convention according to the expectations and wishes of the prospective delegates. Would the potential delegates want to rest or to have fun? Would they prefer an urban center or the suburbs? Does the country or city in question have a positive image? All of these are taken into consideration in the choice of location for a convention.(Aymankuy, 1997: 56) For a city to earn the title of a convention center, it is expected that some criteria regarding the following is above a certain quality: accessibility, price, quality of service, the compatibility of the facilities with the capacity of the convention, the experience of the convention center on convention tourism, the quality of the hotels near the convention center, transportation ease inside the city, touristic attractions (cultural richness, restaurants, museums etc.) and security. (http://www.kobifinans.com.tr/tr/sektor/011610/22001: reaching date: 10.4.2012) In order to increase the demand for international and national conventions in our country, we need private congress centers outside Istanbul. One of the leading locations is Antalya. Here the SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats), which includes the strong and weak aspects of the region as well as the opportunity and threats present in the market, is used to provide an evaluation of the potential of convention tourism in Antalya. Strengths         88 According to data from 2010, there are 789 certified accommodation facilities in Antalya with a capacity of 348 thousand beds. Many tourism facilities certified by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, primarily those in Belek, Kadriye and Kemer, possess modern meeting rooms, (There are a total of 67 hotels that provide services related to convention tourism: 47 in Kemer, 6 in Side, 6 in Manavgat, 8 in Alanya. These hotels operate with 155 conference rooms. Their total capacity is for 26,000 people.) Antalya has a coast to the Mediterranean that is 630 kilometers-long and it benefits from its coastal location for summer tourism (sea-sand-sun), Antalya is suitable for tourism all four seasons due to its climate, and is open to tourism for 12 months, Antalya has locations which have potential for cultural tourism, Antalya is one of the biggest ports in Turkey and hosts 7 yacht ports as well, It has the second biggest airport in Turkey, with two outgoing terminals. Due to its airport, passenger and yachts ports, tourism investments, 21,000 scheduled and charter flights every year to 42 different spots in Turkey and abroad, Antalya is the center of attraction for national and international fairs,(www.geziantalya.com/bilgi.asp?id=151&BilgiADI= Antalya %20 Kongre%20Turizmi: reaching date: 5.4.2012) There are efforts to regenerate historical sites, It is home to Sabancı Glass Pyramide Congress Fair Center with its 4,500 m2 floor space and 5 rooms, Antalya Cultural Center with its 9000 m2 closed space, Haşim İşcan Cultural Center with its 11,059 m2 space, and Antalya Expo Center which has 20.000 m2 closed fair �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo          space,(http://www.antalya.gov.tr/yukleme/long_files/DBA_Cilt_2/antalya%20cilt2.html:r eaching date: 16.4.2012) There is a total of 21 museum and historical sites; 18 are ancient cities, 3 museums, The airport is 13 kilometers away from the city center (important for the conventions), There are 25 tourism areas designated by the Ministerial Cabinet, such as Belek, Kemer, and Alanya, According to data in 2011, there are 324 beaches with blue flag, 17 marinas with blue flag and 12 yachts with blue flag, (http://www.antalya.gov.tr/anasayfa: reaching date: 16.4.2012) Prices are affordable, The historical and cultural spirit of the city is alive 24/7, Many international cultural and art festivals are organized here, Antalya benefits from a variety in tourism, including cultural tourism, health tourism, shopping tourism, sports tourism, and recreational tourism, The local administration is conscious of the importance of convention tourism, Weaknesses           89 Efforts among stakeholders in the sector of convention tourism are uncoordinated, The number of multi-purpose convention centers is inadequate, Convention demands in Antalya largely arise from the internal market, and the international demand is quite low, Accommodation facilities and travel agencies related to convention tourism are not members of international organizations that largely work on conventions,(Çizel, 1999: 128) Tourism promotion is the total of activities of creating a positive image about the touristic values of the country and of informing potential tourists about essential qualities which constitute the touristic potential of a country, such as nature, culture, history, archeology, the sea, the sun etc., and about the superstructure of tourism, by using all types of promotion techniques in tourism markets.(Tavmergen & Meriç, 2002: 33) However, Antalya lacks marketing and promotion in convention tourism, Convention and Visitors’ Centers have an important role in coordinating convention tourism, manage the relationship among the stakeholders, and organize the activities of destination management and of marketing and promotion. (Ersun & Aslan, 2009: 92) Antalya Convention Bureau, which is important in the marketing of convention tourism in Antalya, is not successful in this area, Despite many convention hotels in Antalya, because these hotels prefer to act individually, there are few opportunities for organizing international conventions, Even though accommodation places have facilities suited for convention tourism, they lack the staff specialized in this topic,(Çizel,1999:126) Antalya lacks the perception of a certain image about convention tourism,(Doğanlı, 2006: 187) Because the type of tourism based on sea-sun-sand trio is emphasized here, many businesses have little interest in other types of tourism, �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Opportunities    Indian Travel Agencies Union and British Travel Agencies Union chose Antalya for their Travel Congress in 2012, International Union of Congress Organizers, with members specialized in meetings and congresses over 65 countries, preferred Antalya for their general assembly over Houston in the United States and Monterrey in Mexico, Akdeniz University and International Antalya University (which will start student admission in the academic year of 2012-2013 as the second university and the first endowment university in Antalya) is engaging in activities both by working academically and by creating the qualified personnel who can work in convention tourism, Threats     Nature is being destroyed, especially on the coastal strip where there is unplanned and irregular development, The image of Antalya which cheap tourists create due to the cheap prices carries repelling characteristics for convention groups that have a higher income level than normal tourists, (Çizel,1999:113) The number of Turkey’s competitors in the convention tourism area increase every day, The accommodation duration of the tourists is only 3-4 days, 4. CONCLUSION As one of the cities with the biggest tourism potential in Turkey, Antalya is home to various types of tourism activities. One of these is convention tourism. By using SWOT analysis, this study evaluated Antalya, which is a preferred location for national and international congress activities on various topics, and its opportunities such as transportation, infrastructure, accommodation, convention centers and facilities, security, and peripheral services. The study indicated that areas such as transportation facilities, cultural and historical richness, and accommodation conditions are above a certain level. Marketing and promotion activities have shortcomings, and both local administration and private firms have a big role in this respect. In addition, the convention rooms in the hotels are not adequate. The lack of equipped convention centers also appears as a problem. Taking huge steps in convention tourism, Turkey accelerated its activities also in Antalya after Istanbul. International Congress and Convention Association’s (ICCA) choice of Antalya for their general assembly in 2014 is an important opportunity for Antalya to become popular in the convention tourism market. The city should combine this opportunity with its other strengths, reinforce its weaknesses, and take strong steps in convention tourism. REFERENCES Aslan, K. (2009) Türkiye’de Kongre Turizmini Geliştirme İmkanları, İstanbul Ticaret Odası www.kobifinans.com.tr/tr/sektor/011610/21645: reaching date: 5.4.2012 90 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo www.kobifinans.com.tr/tr/sektor/011610/22676: reaching date: 8.4.2012 www.kobifinans.com.tr/tr/sektor/011610/22001: reaching date: 10.4.2012 Aymankuy, Y. (1997) Turizm’de Geliştirilebilir Turizm Şekli Olarak Kongre Turizmi ve İzmir İl Merkezi Örnek Uygulaması, Balıkesir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Ens. Turizm İşletmeciliği ve Otelcilik Anabilim Dalı, Doktora Tezi, Balıkesir Aymankuy, Y. (2006) Kongre Turizmi Ve Fuar Organizasyonları, Detay Yayıncılık, Ankara Çizel, B. (1999) Kongre Turizmi, Kongre Organizasyonu ve Antalya Bölgesinin Kongre Turizmi Potansiyeli, Sorunları ve Gelecekteki Beklentilerine Yönelik Bir Araştırma, Akdeniz Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Ens. Turizm İşletmeciliği ve Otelcilik Anabilim Dalı, Yüksek lisans Tezi, Antalya Doğanlı, B. (2006) Turizmde Destinasyon Markalaşması Ve Antalya Örneği, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi, İşletme Bölümü Doktora Tezi, Isparta, 2006, pp.187 Ersun, N. and Aslan K. (2009) Kongre Turizminin Geliştirilmesinde Kongre Ve Ziyaretçi Bürolarının Rolü ve Önemi, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Yıl:8 Sayı:15, pp. 89-114 Kozak, N., Kozak, M. A., Kozak, M.,(2001) Genel Turizm İlkeleri-Kavramlar, Detay Yayıncılık, 5. Baskı, Ankara, pp. 21 Pechlaner, H., Zenı, A. & Raıch, F. (2007),"Congress tourism and leisure tendencies with special focus on economic aspects", Tourism Review, Vol. 62 Iss: 3 pp. 32 – 38 Tavmergen, İ. P. and Meriç, P. Ö. (2002) Turizmde Kitapevi, 1. Bası, Ankara, pp. 33 Tanıtma ve Halkla İlişkiler, Turhan www.airporthaber.com/turkiye-dunya-yedincisi--32450h.html: reaching date: 5.4.2012 www.siyasiforum.net/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=12232: reaching date: 5.4.2012 http://iccaworld.com/dcps/doc.cfm?docid=1246: reaching date: 5.3.2012 www.geziantalya.com/bilgi.asp?id=151&BilgiADI=Antalya%20Kongre%20Turizmi: date: 5.4.2012 reaching Antalya Valiliği, http://www.antalya.gov.tr/anasayfa: reaching date: 16.4.2012 http://www.tourexpi.com/tr-intl/news.html~nid=42076: reaching date: 12.4.2012 Dünden Bugüne Antalya, http://www.antalya.gov.tr/yukleme/long_files/DBA_Cilt_2/antalya%20cilt2.html: reaching date: 16.4.2012 İstanbul Uluslararası Finans Merkezi Projesi (2011) Altyapı Komitesi, Çalışma Raporu, pp.139 http://ifm.ibb.gov.tr/Calismalar/Documents/altyap%C4%B1%20_komitesi_cal%C4%B1%C5%9 Fma_raporu_taslak.pdf: reaching date: 5.4.2012 91 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1367 Title A name given to the resource Antalya As Destination In Convention Tourism Author Author Gonca, Manap Davras Abstract A summary of the resource. Convention tourism is a type of alternative tourism consisting of the total of activities which emerge as a result of the organization of meetings. Individuals convene in line with the developments in science and technology and the increasing need for specialization, in order to learn new technologies, to explain and present their scientific work, or to engage in an exchange of information. This situation introduces convention tourism, an important type of alternative tourism activity. Growing rapidly, this type of tourism came to tone into other types of tourism and now possesses an important share in world tourism. There are about 9 thousand conventions all over the world each year both at national and international levels, and as a result, 75 million people travel for these conventions. Convention tourism, which partially solves the problem of seasonal tourism and has the potential to bring high revenues, is next to leisure tourism, an important alternative tourism activity highly preferred in Turkey. After Istanbul, Antalya now wants to have a say in the market of international conventions. This study displays the nature of convention tourism in Turkey and in the world with numeric data. It indicates the characteristics of convention tourism as well as the expectations of attendees from the convention centers. The chosen convention city shall be above a certain level so as to fulfill these expectations. With this aim, Antalya, which wants to play a bigger role in the convention market, has been thoroughly examined through a SWOT analysis. Keywords: Alternative tourism, Convention tourism, Antalya Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/662020051934425938e8149f7e9872cb.pdf 11c9423431609efaf7a5d8104c037ff8 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Effects of Leadership On Job Satisfaction (Visionary Leadership, Transformational leadership, Transactional leadership) Furkan Baltaci, Emin Kara, Erdal Tascan, Huseyin Avsalli Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business, Antalya, Turkey E-mails: fbaltaci@akdeniz.edu.tr, eminkara@gmail.com, etascan@akdeniz.edu.tr, huseyinavsalli@hotmail.com Abstract Humans are social beings and they must be found within the community to meet their individual needs. It is not possible to meet all the demands and needs of people by coming together. They also need a person who can organize and evoke them for the sake of an aim. These individuals are the people who have leadership qualities. When it is taken into consideration that each source can be reached with the impact of globalization, the employees who take part in the competition between companies are an effective competitive tool for business.Enterprises, in which individuals whose personal needs are met work, will always be one step before its opponents thanks to rising performances of the employees. Enterprises need leader persons in a real sense in order to organize the employees successfully, to collect them around a specific purpose, to provide a harmony between the business’s needs and demands and the employees needs and demands and to realize the integration between them. Some of the most fundamental roles of these leaders in business are can be listed as finding most effective and efficient ways to reach determined purposes, providing coordination between the employees, to share the necessary information about both the situation in which they exist and the future conditions by predicting, and to supplythe organizationaleffectivenessandensure justice in theworkplace and so on. In this study, a deep literature review has been made in order to show the effects of leadership behaviors of company employers on job satisfaction.Firstly an overallimpact of leadership behaviors of job satisfaction has been examined thenvisionary, transformational andtransactional leadershipbehavior effects onjob satisfactionhave been noted down.Thena model was developedon the results ofworkand studyhas been terminated. Themost important findingin this study, the transactional leadershipbehavioron job satisfactionis thatthemost influentialfactor. This study is being planned to be transformed into an article after an implementation which will be realized in the 4 or 5 star accommodation centers, in summer 2012, in Alanya. However, currently, the tourism season is off and the%80 of accommodation facilitieswhich will be consideredwithin the scope ofthe research are out of usage that’s why this plan will be realized after the accommodation centers will be available in the summer season. 220 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Keywords: LeadershipBehavior, Job leadership, transformationalleadership. Satisfaction, visionaryleadership,transactional 1.LEADERSHIP CONCEPT When literature review is examined, it is understood that lots of descriptions was combined, however, these descriptions haven’t been collected in a common point for leadership concept .As the cause of this condition; the world’s rapid conversion than ever before or the societies’ becoming tend to more science-oriented rather than industry-oriented can be shown.( Gül and Şahin, 2011:237). As the communities become more science-oriented today, “leadership” is defined as the convincing ability of individuals who have leadership quality in order to make people in his environment reach the determined aim (Erdoğan, 2007: 486487). The point to be considered is ability of actuation the people around him by means of convincing. Because many different descriptions were combined about leadership but many of these point out the same point. As the reason for this the customer-based structure’s acceptance rather than production-based structure can be shown. Voon and others(2011:24) define leadership as the interaction process which occurs between leader and other workers and the goal of which is reaching to determined aims of management . When another description is examined, it is possible to see that leadership is mentioned as the skill to influence a group of people in order to get them reach their targets.(from Bass, 1990 Çakar and Arbak,2003:84 ). According to Kent ( 2005: 1011), the leadership is the process that is based on interaction between the leader and his followers, being effective of change and development of both and affecting their motivation and behaviours. So the leader is the person who leads to his juniors to determined targets (Budak and Budak , 2004:379), motivate them to achieve the objectives, control and coordinate their work (Erdoğan, 2007:486). He is the person that is followed or obeyed by a grup people whose aim is to realize their personal and merged group objectives. 2.THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEADERSHIP AND JOB SATISFACTION Many studies were conducted to examine the relationship between job satisfaction between leadership and job satisfaction.When the studies are examined, it is deduced that the leadership styles have a crucial impact on job satisfaction. The compatibility level of leader and workers is one of the most essential factor on job satisfaction or dissatisfaction. A study which was built by Rad and Yarmohammadian (2006) proves this. According to the study, a leader who had participative leadership feature , failed to improve the company. The company stayed in the same point for a long time and couldn’t show any headway. Furthermore, it was revealed that, such kind of leadership behaviour decreased the job satisfaction, increased worker turnover and shortened the range of burnout. In corresponding this, the managers’ supportive behaviour on labour and prefer clearness in communication affect performance of workers in a positive way.The companies which possess leader managers in those charasteristics have an improvement on job satisfaction. 221 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Workers want their managers to be the leader ones.The job dissatisfaction appears when there is a gap between the workers’ expectation of leadership features and the the ones manager have. (Elpers and Westheus,2008).The job satisfaction level increases when the gap between the workers’ expectation of leadership charesteristics and the the ones manager has declines. In a research made by Tengilimoğlu and Yiğit (2005), when the leadership styles which workers expect from the managers and the managers exhibit bocame closer each other, it was observed that, the job satisfaction level became higher and the leadership styles that affect job satisfaction are respectively ; participative, instrumental, achievement-oriented and supportive leadership. Managers’ leadership behaviors which they exhibit within an organization enables the existence of clear communication between leader and workers.This situation provides getting rid of job stress within the organization of workers and supply an organizational environment helping to promote performance of employee.As a consequence job pleasure of workers increases and workers’ turnover level decreases.(Kim and Brymer, 2011:1025) However, on the case that the workers are not contended with their leaders, job dissatisfaction appears and their organizational relationship decrease.Thus, in such casesthe worker turnover increases, burnout level rises and behaviours such as sabotage are to be seen.(Aşık, 2010; Turunç and oth., 2010; Voon and oth., 2010; Harrington and oth., 2010) 2.1.VISIONARY LEADERSHIP AND JOB SATISFACTION Visionary leadership is the ability of constructing an influencd on people to activate for determined aims and to convey this ability to his followers.(Buluç,2009: 11). When we consider that ambuguity which takes place in the work area causes job dissatisfaction,(Kristina and oth., 2004) we can assert that visionary leadership behaviour has a positive influence on job satisfaction. Because the leaders who have the feature of visionary leadership possess a foresight about developments of future and determine some objectives for future.(Yılmaz and Karahan, 2010:146) So the workers can also make predictions maybe to some extent and their ambiguity perception reduces. So it could affect their job satisfaction in a positive way. A study which was implemented by Dalgın and Topaloğlu (2010: 199) also supports this hypothesis. According to the study results, in the enterprises the employees who are working with the visionary leader managers ar e contended with their manager and this case results in a high level of job satisfaction.In another study, which was performed by Yılmaz and Karahan, ( 2010:156), it has been identified that the most important factor in flourishing performance is visionary leadership behaviour.Riaz and Haider (2010:35) point out the relationship between performance development and leader’s determinig explicit objectives and then state that as a result of this job satisfaction rises. 222 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.2.INTERACTIONIST LEADERSHIP AND JOB SATISFACTION Interactionist leadership behavior which was asserted by J.M.Burns and later was developed by mainly B.M.Bass and many other researchers, it is advocated that, in the relationship between leader and his followers success can be reached on the condition that, these two parts’ behavior change.(Erdoğan, 2007: 522). According to the study made by Voon and his associates( 2001:30), the job satisfaction level reduces when the employees are working with interactionist leaders.Two factors have been determined as the cause of low job satisfaction: the working environment prepared by leaders and the responsibilities he gave to workers.The employees lose motivation built by their leaders ond the case that they can’t feel the necessary sympathy and intimacy they expect from their leaders who have interactionist leadership behaviour.(Watson, 2009: 306). Moreover the unnatural behaviours of interactionist leaders towards employees cause workers’ losing their instrinsic motivation. Punishing or rewarding of interactionist leader managers the employees according to their performance are met with pleasure by workers and compose a fair management’s judgement among them.As a result the employees job satisfaction level rises.But an unfair treat in rewarding or punishment system may cause low job satisfaction in workers. 2.3.TRANSFORMATIVE LEADERSHIP AND JOB SATISFACTION Transformational leadership is the process during which the leader makes up an intimacy for organizational aims and goals among workers, convincing them to the belief that they can manage great works and motivating them in order to attain these determined objectives.(Tutar and oth., 2009: 1385; Erdoğan, 2007:522). Transformationalleader managers help their juniors to be able to become the ones who are creative, innovative, productive and adaptable to different environment conditions within the organization. The employees who are working in such environments have a strong devotion for their jobs, job satisfaction level increases as well. ( Bushra and oth., 2011: 266). Tutar and Tuzcuoğlu (2006:1395) also stated that the employees who are working in organizations where transformational leadership perception climate is existing, have a high job satisfaction level and have less tendency to turnover. Transformational leaders bring a new and original management understanding to the enterprises where their job is to manage by using their individual special features and by doing so promote the performance of organization.This transformation which happens in the organization has also a positive influence on employees and it provides their job satisfaction’s increse. (Voon and oth., 2011: 30). Supporting his juniors’ make individual choices, making it possible for them have creative ideas and valuing them, affecting them remarkably, motivating to objectives, and the conditioned reward system ( rewarding on the cases that performance increases, punishing on the cases that it decreases), transformational leaders create a safe and soft influence on their followers and provide a high job satisfaction level. (Watson, 2009: 306) 223 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.4.RESEARCH MODEL As a consequence of a literature review it has been concluded that leadership behaviours’ effects on job satisaction changes according to some demographic factors. The relationsips identified in this context are below. Age VISIONARY Education Level Gender INTERACTIONIST JOB SATISFACTION Marital Status Income TRANSFORMATI VE Sector Experience 3.CONCLUSIONS One of the factor that enables enterprises make production is labor.Labor is of great İmportance for the organization’ realizing its activities. Enterprises are constantly planning to attain an superiority towards each other and increase their profit proportions.In order to success this,they try to find some methods to use the productive power most effectively and productively.When we keep in mind that productive power,in spending the business enterprises made to realize the production,has an important role,it is concluded that employees must be used effectively and productively,otherwise,the money spent for productive power will be in vain.Supplying of productivity of productive power is based firstly on supplying the requirements of workers and secondly demands of them.Thus the factors which contribute to labor is human-being element. Humanbeing is a social creature and because of this feature,he has a lot of requirements and demands.These people,whose requirements are supplied,do their job fondly and in the end, on behalf of the reach of productivity in the management,it will be a good step. With this study,it is identified by means of literature review that how leadership behaviours of enterprise managers have an effect on job satisfaction of workers.  224 As a result of research,it is identified that visionary leadership perception of male workers is higher than female worker’s. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo    It is seen that there is a lineary proportion between worker’s age and visionary leadership perception.This can be a problem in terms of enterprise.The goals the manager planned for future can not be understood by workers and this makes them feel stressful and decrease their level of job satisfaction.So, the managers who have a visionary leadership feature,must interested especially with young workers closer and transfer the tasks and vision they determine more clear and understandable.Thanks to this,the workers are utilized more effectively and productively. It is identified that interactional,transformational and visionary leadership behaviours increase the level of job satisfaction.Furthermore, the worker’s level of job satisfaction who works with managers presenting a visionary leadership feature is much higher than the other two leadership kinds.managers must be as fair as possible among the workers and keeping this situation going on without arousing an injustice perception among the workers,is highly important. It is concluded that in some cases there is a lineary proportion between level of education and outcome, worker’s level of job satisfaction increases as well.So, there will be an increase in their effectiveness and productivity. REFERENCES Aşık, Nuran Akşit, (2010). “Çalışanların İş Doyumunu Etkileyen Bireysel ve Örgütsel Faktörler ile Sonuçlarına İlişkin Kavramsal Bir Değerlendirme”, Türk İdare Dergisi, 467: 3151. Budak, Gülay ve Budak, Gönül, (2004). İşletme Yönetimi, Barış Yayınları Fakülteler Kitabevi, İzmir. Bushra, Fatima, Usman, Ahmad ve Naveed, Asvir, (2011). “Effect of Transformational Leadership on Employees’ Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment in Banking Sector of Lahore (Pakistan)”, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 2, (18): 261-267. Dalgın, Taner ve Topaloğlu, Cafer, (2010). “Liderlik Davranışları ve İş Tatmini Arasındaki İlişki: Marmaris’te faaliyet Gösteren Beş Yıldızlı Otel İşletmelerinde Uygulama”, 11.Ulusal Turizm Kongresi Bildiri Kitabı, Ed.Çolakoğlu, O. E., 193-202. Diekmann, Kristina, Barness, Zoe, Sondak, Harris, (2004). “Uncertainty, Fairness Perceptions, and Job Satisfaction: A Field Study”, Journal of Social Justice Research, 17, (3): 237-255. Elpers, Kathy ve Westhuis, David, (2008). “Organizational Leadership and Its Impact on Social Workers' Job Satisfaction: a National Study”, Administration in Social Work, 32, (3): 26-43. Erdoğan, İlhan, (2007). İşletmelerde Davranış, Malatyalı İş Adamları Derneği Yönetim Yayınları Dizisi – 1, İstanbul. Harrigton, Donna, Bean, Nadine, Pintello, Denise ve Mathews, Deborah, (2001). “Job Satisfaction and Burnout: Predictors of Intentions to Leave a Job in a Military Setting”, Journal of Administration in Social Work, 25, (3): 1-16. 225 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kent, Thomas, (2005). “Leading and Managing: It Takes Two Tango”, Journal of Management Decision, 2005, 43, (7/8):1010-1017. Kim, Woo Gon ve Brymer, Robert, (2011). “The Effects Of Ethical Leadership On Manager Job Satisfaction, Commitment, Behavioral Outcomes, and Firm Performance”, International Journal of Hospitality and Management, 30: 1020-1026. Koçel, Tamer, (2010). İşletme Yöneticiliği, Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım A.Ş., İstanbul. Özmen, Fatma ve Aküzüm, Cemal, (2010). “Okulların Kültürel Yapısı İçinde Çatışmalara Bakış Açısı ve Çatışma Çözümünde Okul Yöneticilerini Liderlik Davranışları”, Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler Dergisi, 2, (2): 65-75. Rad, Ali Mohammad Mosadegh ve Yarmohammadian, Mohammad Hossein, (2006). “A Study of Relationship Between Managers’ Leadership Style and Employees’ Job Satisfaction”, Journal of Leadership in Health Services, 19, (2): 11-28. Riaz, Adnan, Haider ve Mubarak., Hussain, (2010). “Role of Transformational and Transactional Leadership on Job Satisfaction and Career Satisfaction”, Peer-Reviewed & Open Access Journal, 1, (1): 29-38. Tengilimoğlu, Dilaver ve Yiğit, Arzu, (2005). “Hastanelerde Liderlik Davranışlarının Personel İş Doyumuna Etkisini Belirlemeye Yönelik Bir Alan Çalışması”, Hacettepe Sağlık İdaresi Dergisi, 8, (3): 374-400. Turunç, Ömer, Tabak, Akif, Şeşen, Harun ve Türkyılmaz, Ali, (2010). “Çalışma Yaşamı Kalitesinin Prosedür Adaleti, İş Tatmini, İş Stresi ve İşten Ayrılma Niyetine Etkisi”, "İŞ, GÜÇ" Endüstri İlişkileri ve İnsan Kaynakları Dergisi, 12, (3): 79-96. Tutar, Hasan, Tuzcuoğlu, Ferruh, Argün, Çiğdem ve Akman, Elvettin, (2009). “Dönüştürücü/Etkileşimci Liderliğin Örgütsel Adanmışlık Üzerine Etkisi: Karşılaştırmalı Bir Çalışma”, International Davraz Congress on Social and Economic Issues Shaping the World’s Future; New Global Dialogue, 14-27, (September), 1384-1396. Voon, M.L., Lo, M.C., Ngui, K.S., ve Ayob, N.B., (2011). “The İnfluence Of Leadership Styles on Employees’ Job Satisfaction in Public Sector Organizations in Malaysia”, International Journal of Business, Management and Social Sciences, 2, (1): 24-32. Watson, Liana, (2009). “Leadership’s Influence On Job Satisfaction”, Journal of Radiologic Technology, 80, (4): 297-308. Yılmaz, Hüseyin, Karahan, Atilla, (2010). “Liderlik Davranışı, Örgütsel Yaratıcılık ve İş Gören Performansı Arasındaki İlişkilerin İncelenmesi: Uşak’ta Bir Araştırma”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 17, (2): 145-158. 226 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1117 Title A name given to the resource The Effects of Leadership On Job Satisfaction (Visionary Leadership, Transformational leadership, Transactional leadership) Author Author Furkan, Baltaci Abstract A summary of the resource. Humans are social beings and they must be found within the community to meet their individual needs. It is not possible to meet all the demands and needs of people by coming together. They also need a person who can organize and evoke them for the sake of an aim. These individuals are the people who have leadership qualities. When it is taken into consideration that each source can be reached with the impact of globalization, the employees who take part in the competition between companies are an effective competitive tool for business.Enterprises, in which individuals whose personal needs are met work, will always be one step before its opponents thanks to rising performances of the employees. Enterprises need leader persons in a real sense in order to organize the employees successfully, to collect them around a specific purpose, to provide a harmony between the business’s needs and demands and the employees needs and demands and to realize the integration between them. Some of the most fundamental roles of these leaders in business are can be listed as finding most effective and efficient ways to reach determined purposes, providing coordination between the employees, to share the necessary information about both the situation in which they exist and the future conditions by predicting, and to supplythe organizationaleffectivenessandensure justice in theworkplace and so on. In this study, a deep literature review has been made in order to show the effects of leadership behaviors of company employers on job satisfaction.Firstly an overallimpact of leadership behaviors of job satisfaction has been examined thenvisionary, transformational andtransactional leadershipbehavior effects onjob satisfactionhave been noted down.Thena model was developedon the results ofworkand studyhas been terminated. Themost important findingin this study, the transactional leadershipbehavioron job satisfactionis thatthemost influentialfactor. This study is being planned to be transformed into an article after an implementation which will be realized in the 4 or 5 star accommodation centers, in summer 2012, in Alanya. However, currently, the tourism season is off and the%80 of accommodation facilitieswhich will be consideredwithin the scope ofthe research are out of usage that’s why this plan will be realized after the accommodation centers will be available in the summer season.Keywords: LeadershipBehavior, Job Satisfaction, visionaryleadership,transactional leadership, transformationalleadership. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/aff174e9c4d9a3336f8b0907cf5dca5f.pdf c393da1ac39af36b4bcdd59cf0dddae6 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo TAYLOR (2009), “Voluntary social initiatives in fresh fruit and vegetables value chains; ISBN 978-92-2-122007-7 (print); 978-92-2-122008-4 (web pdf) Sarah Best and Ivanka Mamic. VERICK, Sher and ISLAM, Iyanatul (2010), “The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, consequences and policy responses”, Employment Sector Employment Working Paper No. 61. WOLF, Martin (2012), http://ekonomi.haberturk.com/makro-ekonomi/haber/710434-bizeders-verin- 28 Ocak 2012 Cumartesi, 13:13:34 (DA:05.04.2012) YÖRÜKOĞLU, Mehmet (2009), “Küresel Mali Kriz ve Türkiye Ekonomisi”, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Başkan Yardımcısı, 2009, İstanbul. ZANDI, Mark. Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Inc. He can be reached via help@economy.com. http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/144040636.html “Gas prices and the economy” www.tcmb.gov.tr www.imf.org www.tuik.gov.tr http://www.kobifinans.com.tr/tr/bilgi_merkezi/02061001/20892 (DA:17.04.2012) http://www.tim.org.tr/tr/tim-gundem-8.html (DA:20.04.2012) xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/22560935/886502103/name/ikp-pdf.pdf (17.04.2012) Natural Resources and Economical Growth in Central Asia and Caucasus Filiz Kadi Fatih University Economics Department Abstract As it is known, all former Soviet states faced serious economical and social problems after they gained independency. At this stage of history, these countries took into their hands responsibilities for self-development. To overcome their problems, they tried to find and imply suitable policy in all spheres of social life. In order to strengthen their economy, they had to look their capability and capacity, and use them in the right direction. However, many factors such as cut off the link between the main provider of the Soviet Union, Russia and other republics, problems in management, the lack of experience in market economy brought to serious problems in these countries. As a result, production process was seriously damaged in all sectors of their economy. Consequently, without being able to manufacture products, these countries began to focus on the raw materials, not considering effects of economic dependency on natural recourses. 408 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In the proposed paper, the authors will make an attempt to explore natural resources and economical growth in Central Asia and Caucasus and analyze positive and negative effects of natural resources in these countries. Keyterms: Natural recourses, Economical growth, Central Asia, Caucasus, etc. 1.Natural Resource and Economic Growth There is a curious phenomenon that economists call the resource curse - so named because, on average, countries with large endowments of natural resources perform worse than countries that are less well endowed. Yet some countries with abundant natural resources do perform better than others, and some have done well.53 The idea that natural resources might be more an economic curse than a blessing began to emerge in the 1980s. In this light, the term resource curse thesis was first used by Richard Auty in 1993 to describe how countries rich in natural resources were unable to use that wealth to boost their economies and how, counter-intuitively, these countries had lower economic growth than countries without an abundance of natural resources.54 Numerous studies, including one by Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner, have shown a link between natural resource abundance and poor economic growth.55 These disconnect between natural resource wealth and economic growth can be seen by looking at an example from the oilproducing countries. From 1965-1998, in the OPEC countries, gross national product per capita growth decreased on average by 1.3%, while in the rest of the developing world, per capita growth was on average 2.2%.56 Some argue that financial flows from Foreign Aid can provoke effects that are similar to the Resource Curse.57 Economists put forward three reasons for the dismal performance of some richly endowed countries: • First, the prospect of riches orients official efforts to seizing a larger share of the pie, rather than creating a larger pie. The result of this wealth grab is often war. At other times simple rent-seeking behavior by officials, aided and abetted by outsiders, is the outcome. It is 53 Joseph E. StiglitzThe Resource Curse Revisite, http://www.projectsyndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz48 54 Auty, Richard M. (1993). Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis. London: Routledge. 55 Sachs, Jeffrey D., Warner, Andrew M. (1995). Natural resource abundance and economic growth. NBER Working Paper 5398 56 Gylfason, Thorvaldur (2000). Natural resources, education and economic development. CEPR Discussion Paper 2594. 57 Djankov, Montalvo, Reynal-Querol (2005). The curse of aid. 409 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo cheaper to bribe a government to provide resources at below-market prices than to invest and develop an industry, so it is no surprise that some firms succumb to this temptation. • Second, natural resource prices are volatile, and managing this volatility is hard. Lenders provide money when times are good, but want their money back when, say, energy prices plummet. (As the old adage has it, banks only like to lend to those who do not need money.) Economic activity is thus even more volatile than commodity prices, and much of the gains made in a boom unravel in the bust that follows. • Third, oil and other natural resources, while perhaps a source of wealth, do not create jobs by themselves, and unfortunately, they often crowd out other economic sectors. For example, an inflow of oil money often leads to currency appreciation - a phenomenon called the Dutch Disease. 58 The former body of literature is primarily concerned with the negative effects of oil resource wealth on a developing country’s domestic economic policies and socio-political cleavages once the inflow of rents has already begun.59 The latter body of literature focuses on political determinants of economic growth in developing countries within the constraints of the international system (Bates, 1981; Haggard, 1990). Natural resource production typically generates high economic rents. Gelb [1988], in particular, stresses that governments typically earned most of the rents from natural resource exploitation. Others argue that natural resource abundance inevitably leads to greater corruption and inefficient bureaucracies; or that high rents distract governments from investing in the ability to produce growth supporting public goods, such as infrastructure or legal codes.60 More recently, Collier and Hoffler (2002) have shown that natural resources considerably increase the chances of civil conflict in a country. According to their estimates, the effect of natural resources on conflict is strong and non-linear. A country that has no natural resources faces a probability of civil conflict of 0.5 percent, whereas a country with natural resourcesto-GDP share of 26 percent faces a probability of 23 percent. Civil conflict, of course, is an extreme manifestation of institutional collapse and the work of Collier and Hoffler (2002) is therefore suggestive of a role for natural resources in affecting institutional quality more generally.61 2. Economic Structure of Central Asia Countries and Azerbaijan 58 Joseph E. Stiglitz The Resource Curse Revisite, http://www.projectsyndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz48 59 Belawi and Luciani, 1987; Chaudhry, 1997; Gelb, 1988; and Karl, 1997 60 Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, NATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, NBER working paper 61 Xavier Sala-i-Martin Arvind Subramania, Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria, Discussion Paper #:0203-15 May 2003, Newyork 410 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo After the independency of central Asian countries, there appeared many serious problems in social as well as in economical spheres. As it is known, it takes too much time and afford to rebuild all relations and to start social changes after the old system existing for a long time during the period of entering to market economy62; thus in transition economies especially transformation of the government system becomes one of the most difficult problems. Moreover, if one considers the fact, that policy makers realizing this transition came from the old socialist government traditions 63, the burdens of transition period can be better understood. Administration of these transition economies expected to face negative conditions of this process in the early years of their independency only for short period of time. However, negative sides of economy show that their optimistic expectations were not realized in practice. Firstly, difficulties occurred in the production process brought many other problems. The main of the problems was production shrinks and reduction in GDP depending on it. Many of these countries could not reach GDP level they had before the independency. Table 1. GDP Growth Rate (%) 1992 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Azebaijan -22,6 -11,8 11,1 9,9 10,5 11,2 10,1 26,4 34,5 25 10,8 9,3 5 Kazakhstan -5.3 -8,2 9.8 13.5 9.8 9.3 9.6 9.7 10.7 8.9 3.3 1.2 7.3 Uzbekistan -11,2 -0,9 3.8 4.2 4 4.2 7.7 7 7.3 9.5 9 8.1 8.5 Turkmenistan -5,3 -7,2 18.5 20.4 15.8 17.1 17.2 13 11.4 11.8 14.7 6.1 9.2 Source: World Bank Development Indicators CD-2012, Due to the economical dependency of these countries, during the transition period they experienced big depression between 1989 and 1996 like the capitalism lived in 1929-1933. If we consider the first decade of the transition period, in general losses appeared in production for 40-60% on average. In the transition economy, the production showed U-shape because of the reduction in the production process and results of the stabilization policy effects. 64 62 TİKA, Kırgızistan Ülke Raporu, Türk İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Ajansı Yayınları, Ankara, 1996, N0:31, p. 19. 63 Michael BRUNO: Kriz, İstikrar Programları ve Ekonomik Reform. Çev. Zülfü Dicleli, İstanbul, 1994, p. 202. 64 Emsen, Ömer Selçuk ve Değer, Kemal. Geçiş Ekonomileri ve Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermayenin Dinamikleri, Atatürk Üniversitesi Yayınları, Erzurum, 2005. p. 87. 411 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3. Natural Resources Of Central Asian Countries and Azerbaijan Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have big reserve in term of petroleum and natural gas. 28 giant petroleum and gas sources are in these countries among the world there are 509. These four countries have 189 trillion fitkup (5 billion meter kup which equals 31 billion barrels petroleum) total natural gas reserve and 13 billion barrel total petroleum reserve. In term of oil, Azerbaijan takes the first place with 8 billion barrels reserve, Kazakhstan takes the second place with 2.9 billion barrels reserve, Turkmenistan takes third place with 2 billion barrels reserve and Uzbekistan takes the last place with 69 million barrels reserve. In term of natural gas, Turkmenistan has first place with 129 trillion fitkup reserve (equals 21 billion barrels petroleum), Uzbekistan has second place with 54 trillion fitkup reserve(equals 9 billion barrels petroleum) , Azerbaijan 4 trillion ftkup reserve (equals 697 million barrels petroleum) and Kazakhstan has the last place with 1 trillion fitkup reserve(equals 181 million barrels petroleum).65 The last research showed Kazakhstan reserves are higher than others both petroleum and natural gas. Tables below show new report. Table 2. Countries Petroleum Reserves Country Total Approved Share in The Total Reserve (Billion World Reserve production tons) % (million tons) Share in World production Azerbaijan 1.0 0.6 15.7 % 0.4 Kazakhstan 5.4 3.3 60.5 % 1.6 Uzbekistan 0.1 0.05 6.6 % 0.2 Turkmenistan 0.1 0.05 10.1 %0.3 Source: Yeni Bir Ekonomik Güç Olarak Avrasya, DEİK, Ekim 2005 Table 3. Countries Natural Gas Reserves 65 Sadettin Korkmaz, DOĞAL KAYNAKLAR AÇISINDAN YENİ TÜRK DEVLETLERİ Jeoloji Muhendisliği s, 40, 20-24, 1992. p. 20 http://www.jmo.org.tr/resimler/ekler/3aeec875c479e55_ek.pdf?dergi=JEOLOJ%C4%B0%20M%C3% 9CHEND%C4%B0SL%C4%B0%C4%9E%C4%B0%20DERG%C4%B0S%C4%B0 412 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Country Total Approved Share in The Total Reserve (trillion World Reserve production m3) % (billion tons) Share in World production Azerbaijan 48.4 % 0.8 4.6 %0.2 Kazakhstan 105.9 %1.7 18.5 % 0.7 Uzbekistan 65.7 % 1.0 55.8 % 2.1 Turkmenistan 102.4 % 1.6 54.6 % 2.0 Source: Yeni Bir Ekonomik Güç Olarak Avrasya, DEİK, Ekim 2005 Table 4. Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 1991 Azerbaijan 1995 45.6 Kazakhstan 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 27.9 39 40.9 42.7 42 48.7 62.9 66.5 68.1 65.7 51.5 55.1 38.9 56.6 45.8 46.9 48.4 52.5 53.5 51.1 49.4 57.2 42. 43.9 81.3 69.04 62.3 61.6 65.02 73.09 36.7 71.1 51.03 51.7 37.2 40.2 Turkmenistan 38.7 83.9 95.5 Uzbekistan 35.2 27.9 24.5 28.07 30.8 37.8 37.1 39.6 43.5 36.3 31.4 Source: World Bank Database 2012 Table 5- Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Azerbaijan 85.08 91.3 82.2 76.7 84.5 81.3 97.08 92.8 Kazakhstan 53.8 61.8 64.8 70.6 69.4 66.5 56.7 59.05 Turkmenistan 81.0 na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na Uzbekistan 88.9 86.01 56.7 59.05 53.8 94.5 Source: World Bank Database 2012 Natural resources take significant share in these countries export. In table 4 shows the natural resources share as a percentage in their export. All countries export mostly depends on natural resources. 413 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Due to the recent oil price gains, the two countries’ exports have increased sharply. Azerbaijan’s exports increased to more than 60% of GDP in 2006, up from 36% in 2003, with oil exports ($12 billion in 2006) making up more than 90% of total exports. While Kazakhstan’s oil dependency is less pronounced, oil exports ($24.6 billion in 2006) still accounted for about 60% of total exports. Additional oil export receipts (measured as an increase in oil exports between 2003 and 2006) reached 49% (Azerbaijan) and 24% (Kazakhstan) of their respective GDP in 2006. Kazakhstan saved more than 60% of the increased oil export receipts in its oil fund, while Azerbaijan saved only 12%66 Graph 1- World Nominal Oil Price Chronology: 1970-2011 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OILPRICE/downloaddata?cid=98 Graph 1 shows oil price changing since 1970 to 2006. In this period petroleum price shows fluctuation. Except at the beginning of 1980’s, the oil price fluctuated between 10$ and 30$ in 1985 – 2000 years. After 2000, oil price increased sharply from 23$ to 73$ in 2006. This increase still continues, oil price was 92.93$ on January of 2008, it exceeded even 130$, today67oil price is 92,30 $. 66 Norio Usui, How Effective are Oil Funds? Managing Resource Windfalls in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, ERD Policy Brief Series No. 50, December 2007. p. 3 67 16.05.2012 414 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 6 -Oil Price in the Last decade Years Price 2000 30.298 2001 25.924 2002 26.098 2003 31.140 200 41.438 2005 56.466 2006 66.103 2007 72.363 2008 99.568 2009 61.693 2010 79.428 2011 95.077 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OILPRICE/downloaddata Central Asian countries have large reserves of oil. The world wide very high prices of oil generates huge amount of profit for these countries. For example Kazakhstan's growing petroleum industry account for roughly 30 percent of the country’s GDP and over half of its export revenues. In an effort to reduce Kazakhstan's exposure to price fluctuations for energy and commodities exports, the government created the National Oil Fund of Kazakhstan.68 In order to manage their oil income effectively these countries established stability funds. They invest some oil revenue to these funds. For example, in Azerbaijan, cumulative budget surpluses between 2003 and 2006 reached 2.1% of 2006 GDP. During the same period, assets in SOFAR increased by 5.7% of 2006 GDP, but, at the same time, the government borrowed money worth 4% of 2006 GDP from external sources (Figure 6). It is clearly inconsistent to build up funds in SOFAR and, on the other hand, borrow abroad. Given the relatively low return to investments from SOFAR (at around 3–4% in nominal dollar terms during the past few years), the government bore financial costs to fill the gap 68 Kazakhstan Energy Data, Statistics and Analysis - Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal 415 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo between the interest rate for external borrowing and investment returns to SOFAR. In contrast, Kazakhstan saved most of the cumulative budget surpluses in NFRK (15% of 2006 GDP), and paid back external debts not only to smooth out public expenditures but also to reduce future debt obligations (1.6% of 2006 GDP).69 However, the growth of profit should be effectively managed so that the economy doesn’t suffer. On the other hand, in case of price falls it is important to be prepared to prevent or diminish the negative impact on the economy. Because very high dependency of economy on this resource means high risks. The economy of Azerbaijan for instance, within 34.5% growth rate of economy in 2006 the growth of agriculture was only 0.9 %. And the other important point is that agricultural production growth has slowed in last years and it become negative in 2010. The growth rate of agriculture in 2000 which was 19.5%, in 2001 decreased to 11.1%, in 2002 to 6.4% and in 2010 it was -2.2 %. The development of sectors other than oil sector has slowed in other countries too. For Kazakhstan the same process migth said too. For example the growth rate of agriculture in 2001 was 17.1 while it grew 11.6 in 2010. As known, this high income if can not be managed effectively might affect to the economy negatively. Table 7- Growth of Output annual change, % Azerbaijan 1995 2000 2001 Agriculture -7 19.5 11.1 6.4 Industry -13.3 8.2 Manufacturing -14.3 -13.2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 5.6 5 7.5 0.9 4 6.1 3.5 -2.2 14.7 12.5 11.6 43.4 49. 32.8 9.9 10.5 4.4 -42.1 4.1 8.2 14 10.5 16.3 9 10.2 7.1 -12.6 Kazakhstan Agriculture -24.3 -3.2 17.1 3.2 2.2 -0.1 7.1 6 8.9 -6.2 13.2 -11.6 Industry -14.2 15.2 15.4 12 9.2 11.2 10.6 13.4 8.4 1.9 0.4 8.3 Manufacturing … 13.7 7.6 7.9 10.1 7.1 7.9 7.6 -3 -2.8 …. Turkmenistan Agriculture -7 17 23 0.095 0.099 19.3 20.3 24 … Industry -6 24.4 17.3 13.2 16.2 25.8 21.8 29.7 … 69 … 24.4 … 17.3 … … Norio Usui, How Effective are Oil Funds? Managing Resource Windfalls in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, ERD Policy Brief Series No. 50, December 2007. p. 5 416 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Manufacturing na na na na na na na na na na na na Uzbekistan Agriculture 2.0 3.2 4.1 6 6.8 10.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 4.5 5.7 6.1 Industry -5.1 1.8 2.9 3.4 3.1 5.0 4.9 4.5 6.6 6.8 4.1 8.3 -1.3 4.9 0.5 1.0 2 2 2 3.02 3.9 4 6 Manufacturing Sources: Worldbank database 2012 The table below shows the GDP indicators for various sectors of the economy. According to the table the share of agriculture in GDP is small in all countries. Especially in Kazakhstan economy the share of agriculture in 1999 was 12.8 while in 2005 it decreased to 6.7. The share of industry grew from 31.3 to 42.4. In Kazakhstan’s sectoral base the largest speed realized in service sector. It increased form 33.4 to 55.970. The table below shows the GDP indicators for various sectors of the economy. According to the table the growth rate of agriculture in GDP is small in all countries. Especially in Kazakhstan economy the growth rate of agriculture in 2001 was 17.1 while it grew -11.6 in 2010. The share of manufacturing grew from 32.6 to 37.6. In Kazakhstan’s sectoral base the largest speed realized in service sector. It increased form 33.4 to 55.9. Azerbaijan 1991 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 Agriculture 32.3 27.2 17.1 16.1 15.1 13.4 Industry 31.3 33.5 45.3 47.1 50.1 Manufacturing 17.6 12.5 5.6 6.7 Agriculture na 12.8 8.6 Industry na 31.3 Manufacturing na Agriculture 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 11.8 9.8 7.5 7.0 5.9 6.6 5.7 52.5 54.7 63.5 68.7 68.4 70.2 61.08 64.7 8.07 9.3 8.9 7.01 6.1 4.08 5.04 5.9 5.8 9.3 8.6 8.4 7.5 6.7 5.8 6.09 5.7 6.4 4.8 40.4 38.8 38.5 37.6 37.6 40.09 42.1 40.6 43.2 40.2 42.4 15.2 17.6 17.6 15.5 15.2 14.1 12.8 12.4 12.3 12.6 11.3 13.1 32.9 32.2 34.3 34 34.2 33.09 30.7 27.9 26.1 23.9 21.3 19.5 19.5 Industry 33.2 27.7 23.1 22.6 22.0 23.4 25.9 23.1 27.4 32.0 30.7 33.1 35.4 70 www.adb.org Kazakhstan Uzbekistan 417 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo … 11.8 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.2 10.1 9.09 10.7 12.5 12 13.2 8.9 Agriculture 32.3 17.1 24.3 24.3 22.01 20.2 19.4 18.8 17.4 12.3 12 12 12 Industry 30.9 62.6 44.3 44.2 42.3 41.2 40.1 37.6 36.2 53.7 54 54 54 Manufacturing n.a 40.4 10.6 14.6 15.2 18.5 21.6 Manufacturing Turkmenistan na na na na na Table 8- Structure of Output % of GDP Sources: worldbank database 2012 Likewise in Azerbaijan’s economy the share of agriculture decreased from 32.3 to 5.7; the manufacturing has also slowed down, while the share of industry increased from 31.3to 64.7. In Uzbekistan the share of industry sector increased, but the share of agriculture decreased. This little decrease becomes vital when in the economy of Uzbekistan the production of cotton and its export is taken into consideration. In Turkmenistan the share of industry sector increased, but the share of manufacturing decreased. Due to the problem of acquiring data for the last years makes it difficult to compare the recent changes. Table 9 – Unemployment rate in 2008 Country Rate Azerbaijan 6,1 Kazakhstan 6,6 (2009 year) Uzbekistan 3 Turkmenistan 10 Source: http://www.cenimar.com/factbook/trend.jsp?tickerBase=W_LABU_&countryCode=AJ World development 2012 The direct employment impact of the oil boom is limited. However in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan unemployment rate is relatively higher. Table 10– Poverty rate ( % population ) Country Rate Azerbaijan 49 418 na �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kazakhstan 35 Uzbekistan 28 Turkmenistan n.a. Source: The little Data Book 2006 The World Bank. In countries with increasing income the level of poverty is rather high. This level in provincial areas in comparison to urban areas is higher. For example, in all of Kazakhstan’s oblasts the poverty headcount is higher in urban areas than in rural areas, but the rural-urban difference is especially pronounced in the oil-producing oblasts, where the poverty headcount is two to three times higher in urban compared to rural areas. In the oil-producing regions, cities may benefit from oil rents, e.g. in Mangistau oblast the town of Aktau has a poverty headcount of 18% which is well below the regional average of 40%. At the narrower geographical level, producing oil in a rayon is not a guarantee of lower poverty. In the three oblasts mixing oil-producing and non-oil-producing rayons (Aktöbe, Kyzylorda and West Kazakhstan), only four out of ten rural oil-producing rayons experience less poverty than the regional average poverty headcount (Ivashenko, 2004).71 The high rate of poverty suggests that the income from oil is not distributed fairly and equally. When we look at the Gini coefficient it can seen unfair income distribution. Table 11. Gini coefficient in countries, 1988-2001 Country 1988 2001 Azerbaijan 34.7 36.5 Kazakhstan 25.7 31.3 Uzbekistan 25.0 27.0 (2000) Turkmenistan 26.4 40.8 (1998) Source: World Bank, Global Poverty Monitoring web site, < http://www.worldbank.org/research/povmonitor/ 4.CONCLUSION The governments of resource-rich Asian countries need to find a right balance between fulfilling social and infrastructure development needs (by spending oil revenues), maintaining macroeconomic stability (by sterilizing oil revenues), and saving part of oil wealth for future generations (by saving oil revenues). Policymakers need to pay close 71 Richard PomfretWILL OIL BE A BLESSING OR A CURSE FOR KAZAKHSTAN? http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/research/wpapers/ 419 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo attention to the effects of higher public spending on the real exchange rate and macroeconomic stability, and should make the best strategic use of windfall gains for achieving long term development goals. Transparent management of oil revenues is an indispensable requirement to make sure the money is well spent.72 The development of economy in sectors other than oil and gas requires an increase of investment in the sectors which can increase the rate of employment. The growth of investment in other sectors will prevent and diminish the possible crisis’ negative effects and its depth in case of price falls. Undoubtedly, the money gained form rich natural resources should be used by the countries to extend the contribution of processing of natural resources, thus facilitate the growth of capital investment. As a result, a country instead of selling natural resources will improve in processing of such resources and with the employment opportunities in the first place the contribution level of the country will impressively develop. On the other hand, the recent increase in the food prices on the international arena forces these countries to reconsider their agricultural policies. Except for Turkmenistan, potential of other countries should be utilized to increase the contribution of agriculture to the economy by those facilities that will solve urbanization problems and stimulate the use of labor force. This will positively impact the employment rate and contribute to the socialeconomic development. Therefore, a fair distribution of income and decrease of poverty rate will be achieved. REFERENCES Auty, Richard M. (1993). Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis. London: Routledge. Belawi and Luciani, 1987; Chaudhry, 1997; Gelb, 1988; and Karl, 1997 Deik.org. Djankov, Montalvo, Reynal-Querol (2005). The curse of aid. Emsen, Ömer Selçuk ve Değer, Kemal. Geçiş Ekonomileri ve Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermayenin Dinamikleri, Atatürk Üniversitesi Yayınları, Erzurum, 2005. 72 Norio Usui, How Effective are Oil Funds? Managing Resource Windfalls in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, ERD Policy Brief Series No. 50, December 2007. p. 11. 420 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Gylfason, Thorvaldur (2000). Natural resources, education and economic development. CEPR Discussion Paper 2594. Jeffrey D. Sachs and Andrew M. Warner, NATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, NBER working paper Joseph E. Stiglitz The syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz48 Resource Curse Revisite, http://www.project- Kazakhstan Energy Data, Statistics and Analysis - Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal Michael BRUNO: Kriz, İstikrar Programları ve Ekonomik Reform. Çev. Zülfü Dicleli, İstanbul, 1994, s. 202. Norio Usui, How Effective are Oil Funds? Managing Resource Windfalls in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, ERD Policy Brief Series No. 50, December 2007. p. 3 Richard PomfretWILL OIL BE A BLESSING OR A CURSE FOR KAZAKHSTAN? http://www.economics.adelaide.edu.au/research/wpapers/ Sachs, Jeffrey D., Warner, Andrew M. (1995). Natural resource abundance and economic growth. NBER Working Paper 5398 Sadettin Korkmaz, DOĞAL KAYNAKLAR AcISINDAN YENİ TЬRK DEVLETLERİ Jeoloji Muhendisliği s, 40, 20-24, 1992. p. 20 http://www.jmo.org.tr/resimler/ekler/3aeec875c479e55_ek.pdf?dergi=JEOLOJ%C4%B0%20M%C3 %9CHEND%C4%B0SL%C4%B0%C4%9E%C4%B0%20DERG%C4%B0S%C4%B0 TİKA, Kırgızistan Ülke Raporu, Türk İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Ajansı Yayınları, Ankara, 1996, N0:31, s. 19. Xavier Sala-i-Martin Arvind Subramania, Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria, Discussion Paper #:0203-15 May 2003, Newyork http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OILPRICE/downloaddata Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OILPRICE/downloaddata?cid=98 421 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo World bank database 2012 Economic Growth And Financial Indicators Connection Mustafa Öztürk, Osman Kadi, Filiz Kadi Fatih Üniversitesi, Fatih Üniversitesi 34500 Büyükçekmece/İstanbul E-mails: mozturk@fatih.edu.tr,oskadi@fatih.edu.tr,fkadi@fatih.edu.tr Abstract Real macro economic factors have always been accepted as main determinants of nations’ economies’. However, the development of financial markets and the rise of financial activities in globalizing world economies have led financial actors to affect nations’ economies’ more and more everyday. With the rise of liberalization process after 1980, the influences of financial developments rised in Turkey, too. In today’s world, the effects of financial factors on Turkish economy is more evident than any time. In this study, with the aim of detecting the effects of financial factors on Turkish economy, the relations between financial data as Exchange rates, interest rates and IMKB 100 index and economic growth has been analysed. Keywords: financial data, exchange rates, interest rates, economic growth, Vector Auto Regression Model (V.A.R). 1.INTRODUCTION The relation between financial developments and economic growth has been frequently debated subject lately. These debates mostly focus on the case that financial developments affect economic growth or economic growth affects financial developments. In today’s economies in which financial markets gradually enlarge and financial instruments gradually increase, it is observed that financial improvements influence economic growth. Assets’ prices are formed and change under the influence of financial developments; financial developments determine consumption and investment expenses in a significant amount. In this study, financial macroeconomic data and economic growth relation has been analysed by dividing the onservations between 1998-2010 into quarters. After a literature review of the subject, causality relation between financial data and economic growth has been analysed by granger causality test. After that, vector auto regression (VAR) model has been applied. Lastly, effect-reaction functions have been deducted by the help of correctness tests. 422 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1349 Title A name given to the resource Natural Resources and Economical Growth in Central Asia and Caucasus Author Author Filiz , Kadi Abstract A summary of the resource. As it is known, all former Soviet states faced serious economical and social problems after they gained independency. At this stage of history, these countries took into their hands responsibilities for self-development. To overcome their problems, they tried to find and imply suitable policy in all spheres of social life. In order to strengthen their economy, they had to look their capability and capacity, and use them in the right direction. However, many factors such as cut off the link between the main provider of the Soviet Union, Russia and other republics, problems in management, the lack of experience in market economy brought to serious problems in these countries. As a result, production process was seriously damaged in all sectors of their economy. Consequently, without being able to manufacture products, these countries began to focus on the raw materials, not considering effects of economic dependency on natural recourses. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/9a642cc577e59d272dfada12a4a5116a.pdf 2f41de7f9981c869c0299940c5b9d3d0 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Rikitake T (1958). Oscillations of a System of Disk Dynamos,Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc.,54:89. Rössler OE (1976). An equation for continuous chaos, Phys. Lett. A,;57:397–398. Wu CW, Yang T, Chua LO (1996). On adaptive synchronization and control of nonlinear dynamical systems, Int J Bifurcat Chaos, 6:455–71. Y. Hong, H. Qin, G.R. Chen (2001). Adaptive synchronization of chaotic systems via state or output feedback control, Internat. J. Bifur. Chaos, Vol.11, No.3, 1149–1158. K. Konishi, M. Hirai and H. Kokame (1998). Sliding mode control for a class of chaotic systems, Phys. Lett. A, vo1.245, pp.511-517. Günzay Ablay (2009). Sliding mode control of uncertain unified Nonlinear Analysis: Hybrid Systems, vol.3 531-535. chaotic systems, M. T. Yassen (2005). Controlling chaos and synchronization for new chaotic system using linear feedback control, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 26, 913–920. W. Lin (1995). Feedback stabilization of general nonlinear control system: A passive system approach, Syst. Contr. Lett., vol. 25, pp. 41–52. Qi, D., G. Zhao and Y. Song (2004). Passive control of Chen chaotic system, Proc. of the 5th World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation, Hangzhou, China, pp.1284-1286. S. Emiroğlu, Y. U. (2010). Passivity based Chaos Control of the T System,. IMS 2010 (s. 118-125). Sarajevo, Bosnia Herzegovina: International University of Sarajevo. Juan Ding, Weiguo Yang, Hongxing Yao (2009) . A New Modified Hyperchaotic Finance System and its Control, International Journal of Nonlinear Science Vol.8No.1,pp.59-66. Pyragas K. (1992). Continuous control of chaos by self-controlling feedback. Phys Lett A;170 :421–8. A Literature Review About Sustainability Accounting Filiz Angay Kutluk1,Mustafa Gülmez2 1 Akdeniz University, Ayşe Sak School of Applied Sciences, Antalya,Turkey 2 Akdeniz University, Tourism Faculty, Antalya,Turkey Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to give a brief information and review ‘Sustainability Accounting’ articles published in the period of 2000 to 2011. Method: Articles are collected by searching main databases by abstract, keyword or article title that contain ‘Sustainability Accounting‘. Analyses mainly include quantity analysis and purpose analysis. The articles are classified according to journals and years in quantity analysis. The main purposes of the articles are mentioned in the purpose analysis. Findings and recommendations: The classifications are shown in tables and discussed. The mostly published years and journals, the mostly chosen subject area and purposes are 144 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo mentioned. It is thought that this literature review analysis will be helpful for the researchers to focus on a special subject area or purpose. 1.INTRODUCTION The survival of the natural environment and environmental sustainability are from the most important subjects of the 21st century which are being taken into consideration globally. Jasch and Lavicka (2006, 1214) stated that sustainable development is described in three dimensions which are not separate, but strongly influence each other: social, environment and economic, which are sometimes also called People, Planet and Profit. According to Taplin et al. (2006, 359), “Sustainability accounting provides developmental opportunities, institutional learning and transformational effects on society and the environment that make it appealing for organizations to engage with”. Fraser (2011, 36) defines sustainability accounting as “the study and practice that makes visible the linkage between organizational activities and the pursuit of sustainability”. Ngwakwe (2012) stated that engagement in some sustainability initiatives in support of sustainable development has started by the accounting profession; but it looks like a weak approximation of sustainable development ideal which is caused by lack of standards, regulations and uniform sustainability accounting schemes. The purpose of this study is to review ‘Sustainability Accounting’ articles published in the period of 2000 to 2011 according to quantity and purpose and to give information about the main subject areas. 2.METHOD Articles are collected by searching Ebsco, Emerald Management and Science Direct databases by abstract, keyword or article title that contain ‘Sustainability Accounting‘. Totally 87 articles (8, 39 and 40 articles respectively) are found. Same articles which were duplicated in different databases, counted as single. Editorials, book reviews and periodicals are excluded. So, 52 articles are analyzed according to the quantity and purposes. 2.1Quantity Analysis In Quantity Analysis, the number of the papers in the topic of “Sustainability Accounting” is listed according to each Journal for the concerning years. Table 1 shows the quantity analysis. Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal Accounting Forum Accounting, Organizations & Society Business Strategy & the Environment Critical Perspectives on Accounting Economics & Management 1 1 TOTAL 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Journal Name 2003 Table 1 Quantity of the Sustainability Accounting Papers 1 1 1 2 1 1 145 3 1 1 2 1 1 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Environmental Impact Assessment Review International J. of Sustainable Develop. & Journal of Cleaner Production World Ecology Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy & Journal of Modern Accounting & Auditing Management Journal of World Business 1 1 1 1 1 1 Leadership & Organization Development Journal Public Money & Management Scottish Journal of Political Economy 1 1 1 Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal TOTAL 1 2 1 5 1 1 - 17 17 19 22 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 34 52 2.2.Purpose Analysis It is thought that it would be a guide for the researchers who want to examine the ‘Sustainability Accounting’ articles according to a particular purpose. Classification is made according to the journals. Table 2 shows the journals, publishing years, name of the authors and purposes of the articles. Table 2 Classification of the Articles by Purpose Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal Year 2006 Author  Gray Purpose  To examine the extent to which social, environmental and sustainability accounting and reporting (SEA) can or should contribute to shareholder value and, correspondingly, to consider the challenge that SEA can offer to the conventional views of “value” that underpin traditional financial accounting. 2007 2010  Adams and  To present a case for research in ethical, social and environmental (or sustainability) accounting and LarrinagaGonzález accountability which engages with those organizations claiming to manage and report their sustainability performance.  Burritt and  To discuss the current development of sustainability accounting research, the identification of Schaltegger critical and managerial paths, and to assess of the future of sustainability accounting and reporting. Accounting Forum 2005  Lamberton  To review the relatively short history of sustainability accounting theory and practice and to draw upon the structure of the financial accounting model to develop a sustainability accounting framework that aims to provide direction for future development of sustainability accounting at both conceptual and applied levels. Accounting, Organizations & Society 2011  O’Dwyer et al.  To develop a theoretical and empirical understanding of the processes through which sustainability assurance practitioners can, and do, seek to legitimize this relatively new area of practice with key audiences. Business Strategy & the Environment 2006  Perrini and  To address this need for change by presenting a relational view of the firm, based on the strategic Tencati  value of the linkages with stakeholders, and its implication in terms of corporate performance evaluation and reporting systems. To develop a sustainability accounting framework to guide organizations down the road to greater sustainability, start them thinking about the necessary issues and show them how to incorporate them in their business models.  Taplin et al. 146 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Critical Perspectives on Accounting Year 2004 Author Purpose  Ball  To explore the possibility of a ‘sustainability accounting’ project for the UK local government sector and to provide a test of the usefulness of the social theory mapping approach in the context of the development of the sustainability accounting project. Economics & Management 2011  Vavra et al.  To determine sustainable aspects of innovations for further improvement of processes within company, its competitiveness, corporate social responsibility and corporate sustainability. Environmental Impact Assessment Review 2006  Gale and Gale  To demonstrate that “state-of-the-industry” accounts need to be critically assessed according to a range of social impacts and costs to provide as much information as possible to a broader range of stakeholders. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 2011  Ngwakwe  To examine and understand the influence of global sustainable development culture on the sustainability behaviour of the accounting profession and to highlight some policy implications of this influence. Journal of Cleaner Production 2006  Jasch and Lavicka  To be based on a project with the Styrian automobile cluster in Austria and selected member companies, the environmental management costs, as well as further costs for health and safety, risk management and other social issues were assessed. Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy & Management 2004  Gassner and  To present a way of linking the environmental pressure related to trade, to flows of money and Narodoslawsky products between nations. Journal of Modern Accounting & Auditing 2011  Khan  To consider the offering of a stand-alone sustainability accounting course, offered by the accounting Faculties in Australian and American universities. Journal of World Business 2010  Schaltegger and  To focus on the role of sustainability accounting as an approach to help support management Burritt improve corporate sustainability and responsibility, to deal with interpretations and paths of sustainability accounting from a management perspective and to discuss the need for a pragmatic goal driven path to sustainability accounting. Leadership & Organization Development Journal 2011  Seleshi  To relate the ecological approach to the environmental and conservation objectives embedded in sustainability development and reporting. Public Money & Management 2008  Larrinaga- Gonzélez and Pérez-Chamorro  To analyze the ways that Spanish public water companies communicate sustainability information to their stakeholders and explores whether distinctive and more progressive accountability is possible in the public sector in comparison with private sector organizations. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 2003  Asheim  To summarize assumptions made and results obtained in parts of the literature on welfare and sustainability accounting. Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal 147 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2010  Gray  To reexamine social accounting as a problem focused, multi-disciplinary field and explores some of the possible directions the emerging field might take.  To determine whether market participants see value in the corporate choice to begin publishing a  Guidry and Patten   Stohl and Stohl      Arunachalam and standalone sustainability report and to investigate whether differences in market reactions are associated with the quality of the sustainability report. To explore how globalization processes have shaped the nature, scope, and time frame of considerations of social responsibility and the development of a corporate social responsibility (CSR) regime and to identify three generations of human rights' values embedded within the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and aims to argue that they inspire and influence contemporary discussions about, and practices of CSR. To draw on recommendations of Agenda 21 and communitarian theory to examine collaboration between local district community and local authorities to formulate strategies for the sustainable development of the Taupo district. To contribute to the rethinking what it means to be human and our relationship with the Earth. To identify changes in regulatory requirements that will lead to improved transparency on sustainability and corporate responsibility issues and the impact this may have for stakeholders. To raise a selection of issues and questions that have begun to face academics and business professionals in the technically complex field of greenhouse gas accounting. Lawrence  McIntosh  Adams  Young Year 2010 Author  Lane Purpose  To demonstrate that spending on environmental protection will aid, rather than hamper, economic    Henriques   Rogers et al.   Murray et al.      Loucks et al.  Epstein and Yuthas  development which is itself sustainable and attempts to show that a more activist role of the governments of Asia-Pacific countries in the making and implementation of a global emissions regime is much in line with the real situation in this economically vibrant region of the world. To discuss some of the issues in the development of ISO 26000 a new standard for social responsibility. To study the secondary markets to understand the size of the important portion (secondary markets provide a place for unwanted items to be bought and sold, which diverts them from landfills, reducing the products' ecological impact and creating economic value) of the US economy. To investigate the possibilities and problems for collaboration in the area of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and sustainability and to explore the nature and concept of collaboration and its forms, and critically evaluates the potential contribution a collaborative approach between agencies might offer to these agendas. To explore how to meaningfully engage small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in strategies that improve the social and environmental sustainability of their businesses. To thoroughly examine sources of mission diffusion and mission drift in the microfinance industry and to identify consequences of and remedies to these problems. To gain some insight into how consumers respond to green alternatives, and examine how managers can best position their green products to maximize the premium consumers are willing to pay. To forward a conceptual model identifying some of the key sources of judgment error in individual environmental sensemaking and to offer recommendations to mitigate some of these biasing dysfunctions and thereby improve the effectiveness of environmentally related business policy. To survey the research methods employed in the extant environmental accounting literature, finding few experimental studies. To report on the highlights of the UN Global Compact Leaders Summit, the Principles for Responsible Management Education Global Forum and the Globally Responsible Leadership Initiative General Assembly held in New York and Boston in June 2010 and to discuss the potential of the connections and collaborations between these organisations and others to lead to change.  Okada and Mais  Schwering 148 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo  Alewine  Adams and Petrella 2011  Macdonald et al.  To review a five-year multi-study research programme on the role of public dialogue in the social and cultural sustainability of biotechnology developments in New Zealand.  To investigate sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions trading practice in China and discusses what it  Lu might reveal about the suitability of using emissions trading to achieve carbon reductions in China.  To explain how inefficient learnivng rules may lead to a perception of economic and ecological realities that may be systematically distorted in the long run.  Gomes  To explore the role of management accounting practices as facilitators of the environmental  Albelda  To analyse social report guidelines and practices within Italian local governments (ILGs).  To draw on the New Zealand context to provide extensions and comparative insights to prior management. research that has canvassed the reasons for sustainability reporting by local governments.  To detail the research and consultation process highlighting the demand for this information,  Farneti and Siboni  Bellringer et al.  Miles undertaken by the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) and the International Finance Corporation.  To discuss climate change policies such as carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes which are    Nelson et al.   Mayo   Adams et al.    Forbes and McIntosh    Gondor and Morimoto  being developed and implemented in ways which fundamentally transform the profitability of industries and businesses. To consider the historical basis of development of corporate social responsibility and the impact of this on co-operative enterprises and member-owned businesses. To discuss the role of business academics and business schools in the development of leaders able to respond to climate change and sustainability challenges. To examine the uptake of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the Asia Pacific region and to explore the extent to which countries in the region are transitioning towards a sustainable enterprise economy (SEE) and the links between the two, thereby connecting the uptake of CSR at the organisational level to the configuration and transformation of societies. To examine the current situation of eco-labelling in Japan, and the possible roles of two connected non-governmental organizations (NGOs) – the Marine Stewarship Council (MSC) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) – may have in future decision making. To focus on the design of a sustainable business model on the development of a biofuel industry in Indonesia. To discuss technology transfer – and its role in climate change mitigation – within the United Nations framework of sustainable development. To provide an overview and context for the emerging field of public policies for scaling voluntary standards, or private regulations, on the social and environmental performance of business and finance, to promote sustainable development; in order to stimulate more innovation and research in this field. To explore the gaps between regulatory requirements and authoritative guidance regarding climate disclosure in Australia; reporting practices; and the demands for increased disclosure and standardization of that disclosure. To thoroughly examine solutions to mission diffusion and mission drift in the microfinance industry.  Jupesta et al.  Bakhtina  Bendell et al.  Cotter et al. 149 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo  Epstein and Yuthas 3.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION As Table 1 shows, most of the publications about ‘Sustainability Accounting’ are in Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal . This journal is specialized for Sustainability Accounting and started to be published in 2010 and all articles published in 2010 and 2011 are about Sustainability Accounting. From the other journals, Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal and Business Strategy & the Environment have the highest number of articles about Sustainability Accounting. It is necessary to mention that most of the journals had special issues related to Sustainable Development, Social and Environmental Accounting or Environmental Management in the examined period, but our study is limited to the abstracts, keywords or articles title containing ‘Sustainability Accounting’, for that reason the articles in the special issues aren’t included in the study. Table 1 shows that, most of the ‘Sustainability Accounting’ articles are published in 2010 and 2011. Table 2 shows that subject area and purposes of the articles are mostly about development of sustainability accounting research ant its role to improve corporate sustainability, developments in social and environmental accounting, developments in corporate social responsibility and environmental management. Ngwakwe (2012, 38) recommends that sustainability initiatives of accounting profession are required to increase the role of accounting towards sustainable development such as regulated sustainability accounting and reporting standards, integrating sustainability accounting into accountancy education and the improvement of accounting by creation of ‘engineering accounting’ equip specialist accountants with technical and scientific skills to meet rising challenges originating from climate change. Zadek (1999, 31) mentiones that “the imperatives of integrating social and environmental goals and measures of performance with the ‘financials’ become the real step towards placing the process of business within the framework of sustainability. Adams et al. (2011, 169) state that there is a needed change in business education to develop personal and leadeship skills and to address global problems of poverty, climate change, environmental sustainability and life style. Ngwakwe (2011, 450) insists that “sustainability behaviour in the accounting profession is a function of global green culture and that the more society embraces profounder green values, the more accounting will transform towards sustainability values”. So the main responsibility in sustainable development starts with the people of the society. Our study is limited with the review of the articles contains‘Sustainability Accounting’ in abstracts, keywords or articles title. A detailed study about sustainable development and its connection with accounting profession will be helpful for sustainability accounting researchers. REFERENCES Adams, C. A., Heijltjes, M. G., Jack, G., Marjoribanks, T., and Powell, M. (2011) The development of leaders able to respond to climate change and sustainability challenges: The role of business schools, Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal, 2(1), 165-171 Fraser, M.(2011) Sustainability assessment models, Chartered Accountants Journal, 90(3), 3638. 150 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Jasch, C. And Lavicka, A. (2006) Pilot project on sustainability management accounting with the Styrian automobile cluster, Journal of Cleaner Production, 14(14), 1214-1227. Ngwakwe, C. C. (2011) Towards an understanding of the influence of sustainability culture on the accounting profession, International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 18(5), 442-452. Ngwakwe, C. C. (2012) Rethinking the Accounting Stance on Sustainable Development, Sustainable Development, 20, 28-41. Taplin, J. R. D., Bent, D. and Aeron-Thomas, D. (2006) Developing a sustainability accounting framework to inform strategic business decisions: a case study from the chemicals industry, Business Strategy & the Environment (John Wiley & Sons, Inc), 15(5), 347-360. Zadek, S. (1999) Stalking Sustainability, Greener Management International, 26, 21-31. Appendix-The List of the Reviewed Articles Asheim, G. B. (2003) Green national accounting for welfare and sustainability:A Taxonomy Of Assumptions And Results, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 50(2), 113-130. Ball, A. (2004) A sustainability accounting project for the UK local government sector? Testing the social theory mapping process and locating a frame of reference, Critical Perspectives on Accounting, 15(8), 1009-1035. Gassner, J. and Narodoslawsky, M. (2004) Regional sustainability accounting and the environmental–economic balance of payments, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy & Management, 6(4), 565-583. Lamberton, G. (2005) Sustainability accounting--a brief history and conceptual framework, Accounting Forum, 29(1), 7-26. Gray, R. (2006) Social, environmental and sustainability reporting and organisational value creation? Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 19(6), 793-819. Taplin, J. R. D., Bent, D. and Aeron-Thomas, D. (2006) Developing a sustainability accounting framework to inform strategic business decisions: a case study from the chemicals industry, Business Strategy & the Environment (John Wiley & Sons, Inc), 15(5), 347-360. Perrini, F. and Tencati, A. ( 2006) Sustainability and stakeholder management: the need for new corporate performance evaluation and reporting systems, Business Strategy & the Environment, 15 (5), 296-308 Gale, R. and Gale,F. (2006) Accounting for social impacts and costs in the forest industry, British Columbia, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 26( 2), 139-155. Jasch, C. and Lavicka, A. (2006) Pilot project on sustainability management accounting with the Styrian automobile cluster, Journal of Cleaner Production, 14(14), 1214-1227. Adams, C. A., Larrinaga-González, C. (2007) Engaging with organisations in pursuit of improved sustainability accounting and performance, Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 20(3), 333-355. Larrinaga-Gonzélez, C. and Pérez-Chamorro, V. (2008) Sustainability Accounting and Accountability in Public Water Companies, Public Money & Management, 28(6), 337-343. Burritt, R. L. and Schaltegger, S. (2010) Sustainability accounting and reporting: fad or trend? Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, 23(7), 829-846. 151 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Schaltegger, S. and Burritt, R. L. (2010) Sustainability accounting for companies: Catchphrase or decision support for business leaders? Journal of World Business, 45(4), 375384. O’Dwyer, B., Owen, D. and Unerman, J. (2011). Seeking legitimacy for new assurance forms: The case of assurance on sustainability reporting, Accounting, Organizations & Society, Vol. 36 (1), 31-52. Vavra, J., Munzarova, S., Bednarikova, M. and Ehlova, Z. (2011) Sustainable Aspects of Innovations, Economics & Management, 16, 621-627. Ngwakwe, Collins C. (2011) Towards an understanding of the influence of sustainability culture on the accounting profession, International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 18 (5), 442-452. Khan, T. (2011) Sustainability Accounting Education: Scale, Scope and a Global Need, Journal of Modern Accounting & Auditing, 7(4), 323-328. Seleshi, S. (2011) Ecological systems approaches to sustainability and organizational development: Emerging trends in environmental and social accounting reporting systems, Leadership & Organization Development Journal, 32 (4), 379-398. Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal Articles Gray, R. (2010) A re-evaluation of social, environmental and sustainability accounting: An exploration of an emerging trans-disciplinary field? 1(1), 11-32 Guidry, R. P. and Patten, D. M. (2010) Market reactions to the first-time issuance of corporate sustainability reports: Evidence that quality matters, 1(1), 33-50 Stohl, M. and Stohl, C. (2010) Human rights and corporate social responsibility: Parallel processes and global opportunities for states, corporations, and NGOs, 1(1), 51 – 65 Arunachalam, M. and Lawrence, S. (2010) Constructing strategies for sustainable development the communitarian way, 1(1), 66-80. McIntosh, M. (2010) Re-visiting the world and co-creating a future, 1(1), 81-84 Adams, R. (2010) It's (already) beginning to look a bit like Christmas, 1(1), 85-88 Young, A. (2010) Greenhouse gas accounting: global problem, national policy, local fugitives, 1(1), 89-95 Lane, J.E. (2010) Economic catch-up and emission reductions, 1(1), 96-102 Henriques, A. (2010) ISO 26000: a standard for human rights? 1(1), 103-105 Rogers, D. S., Rogers, Z. S. And Lembke, R. (2010) Creating value through product stewardship and take-back, 1(2), 133-160 1891346Murray, A., Haynes, K. and Hudson, L. J. (2010) Collaborating to achieve corporate social responsibility and sustainability?: Possibilities and problems, 1(2), 161-177. 1891347Loucks, E. S., Martens, M. L. and Cho, C. H. (2010) Engaging small- and mediumsized businesses in sustainability, 1(2), 178-200.1891348 Epstein, M. J. and Yuthas, K. (2010) Mission impossible: diffusion and drift in the microfinance industry, 1(2), 201 – 221. 152 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1891349Okada, E. M. and Mais, E. L. (2010) Framing the “Green” alternative for environmentally conscious consumers, 1(2), 222-234. Schwering, R. E. (2010) 1891350Sources of judgment error in environmental sensemaking, 1(2), 235-255. 1891351Alewine, H. C. (2010) A model for conducting experimental environmental accounting research, 1(2), 256-291. 1891352Adams, C. and Petrella, L. (2010) Collaboration, connections and change: The UN Global Compact, the Global Reporting Initiative, Principles for Responsible Management Education and the Globally Responsible Leadership Initiative, 1(2), 292-296. Macdonald, L. R., Varey, R. J. and Barker, J. B. (2011) Science and technology development and the depoliticization of the public space: The case of socially and culturally sustainable biotechnology in New Zealand, 2(1), 8-26. Lu, Z. (2011) Emissions trading in China: lessons from Taiyuan SO2 emissions trading program, 2(1), 27-44.19497 Gomes, O. (2011) Learning equilibria in growth-pollution models, 2(1), 45-75. Albelda, E. (2011) The role of management accounting practices as facilitators of the environmental management: Evidence from EMAS organisations, 2(1), 76-100. 19498Farneti, F. and Siboni, B. (2011) An analysis of the Italian governmental guidelines and of the local governments' practices for social reports, 2(1), 101-125. 194986Bellringer, A., Ball, A. and Craig, R. (2011) Reasons for sustainability reporting by New Zealand local governments, 2(1), 126-138.19497 Miles, K. (2011) Embedding gender in sustainability reports, 2(1), 136-146. 1949829Nelson, T., Wood, E. Hunt, J. and Thurbon, C. (2011) Improving Australian greenhouse gas reporting and financial analysis of carbon risk associated with investments, 2(1), 147-157.1949661 Mayo, E. (2011) Co-operative performance, 2(1), 158-164.194961 Adams, C. A., Heijltjes, M. G., Jack, G, Marjoribanks, T. and Powell, M. (2011) The development of leaders able to respond to climate change and sustainability challenges: The role of business schools, 2(1), 165-171. Forbes, S. and McIntosh, M. (2011) Towards CSR and the sustainable enterprise economy in the Asia Pacific region, 2(2), 194-213. Gondor, D. and Morimoto, H. (2011) Role of World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) in seafood eco-labelling policy in Japan, 2(2), 214-230. Jupesta, J. Harayama, Y. and Parayil, G. (2011) Sustainable business model for biofuel industries in Indonesia, 2(2), 231-247. Bakhtina, V. A. (2011) Innovation and its potential in the context of the ecological component of sustainable development, 2(2), 248-262. 17003309 Bendell, J, Miller, A. and Wortmann, K. (2011) Public policies for scaling corporate responsibility standards: Expanding collaborative governance for sustainable development, 2(2), 263-293. 153 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Cotter, J., Najah, M. and Wang, S. S. (2011) Standardized reporting of climate change information in Australia, 2(2), 294-321. Epstein, M. J. and Yuthas, K. (2011) Protecting and regaining clarity of mission in the microfinance industry, 2 (2), 322 – 330. Distrubution Of Human Capital: A Study On Turkish Regions Zekeriya Mizirak, Deniz Göktaş Department of Economics, Konya University, Konya, Turkey E-mails: zmizirak@hotmail.com, d.goktas@gmail.com Abstract Firms’ location choice causes regional economic differences. The conventional view of firms’ location relies on cost-related factors such as tax breaks and subsidies. Human capital theory of regional development asserts that people are the motor force behind the regional growth. According to proponents of the human capital theory, regional growth is driven by endowments of highly educated and productive people instead of reducing costs of business or low costs of resources. In a world in which people are highly mobile, human capital is not a given endowment. Under the new regime of geography in which jobs follow labor instead of labor force follows jobs, wherever intelligence clusters evolve, so too will wealth accumulate. Firstly, Jacobs attracted attention to the ability of cities to attract creative people and thus spur economic growth. To sustain innovation attracting and retaining human capital is believed a crucial role. Firms want to reap the benefits from skilled labor pool.Places with greater number of highly educated people grow faster and better able to attract more talent. There are three linkages between human capital and regional growth. Firstly, concentration of creative and highly educated people through accumulation of knowledge and productivity in existing firms. Human capital enables both product and process innovations. Second explanation is related to inter firm dynamics. Highly human capital endowed people rapidly adapt new ideas and technologies; therefore industrial shift in these human capital endowed regions is rather easier. Not only they succeed in existing mature firms, but also they start new enterprises, thus contribute into economic activity. This linkage is called reinvention view of human capital. Third explanation is about consumption patterns of educated people. Human capital causes growth by spending effect. Since they have higher incomes, they spend much on leisure activities like bars, restaurants and theatres. Their spending habits create employment for the unskilled. In this paper we will test the relationship between the human capital endowment of the regions and determinants of its regional distribution. Job opportunities, regional amenities and diversity can affect the distribution of human capital. Keywords: Regional development, human capital, location choice 154 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1291 Title A name given to the resource A Literature Review About Sustainability Accounting Author Author Filiz , Angay Kutluk Abstract A summary of the resource. Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to give a brief information and review ‘Sustainability Accounting’ articles published in the period of 2000 to 2011. Method: Articles are collected by searching main databases by abstract, keyword or article title that contain ‘Sustainability Accounting‘. Analyses mainly include quantity analysis and purpose analysis. The articles are classified according to journals and years in quantity analysis. The main purposes of the articles are mentioned in the purpose analysis. Findings and recommendations: The classifications are shown in tables and discussed. The mostly published years and journals, the mostly chosen subject area and purposes are mentioned. It is thought that this literature review analysis will be helpful for the researchers to focus on a special subject area or purpose. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/2b746165c279aca7ad4cddcbcde47253.pdf a9689c0fbf353956c880648ac5f7cce2 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Mirbagheri, M., (2010), “Fuzzy Logic and Neural Network Fuzzy Forecasting of Iran GDP Growth”, African Journal of Business Management, Vol.4, No.6, 925-929. Nygren, K., Stock Prediction: A Neural Network Approach, Master Thesis, Royal Institute Of Technology, KTH, 2004. Öztemel, E., Yapay Sinir Ağları, Papatya Yayıncılık, İstanbul, 2003. Schumacher, C., Breitung, J., (2008), “Real-time Forecasting of German GDP based on Large Factor Model with Monthly and Quarterly Data”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 24, 386-398. Tkacz, Greg, Hu, Sarah, (1999), “Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks”, Bank of Canada Working Papers, 99-3. Zhang, G., Hu, M.Y. (1998) “Neural Network Forecasting of the British Pound/US Dollar Exchange Rate”, Omega Int. J. Mgmt. Sci, 26(4): 495-506. (http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesticproduct/p/GDP.htm). (http://www.economicsconcepts.com/gdp_as_a_measure_of_welfare.htm). (www.investopedia.com). The Importance And The Place Of Ombudsman In Law State Feyzullah Ünal Dumlupinar University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences E-mail: feyz_unal@mynet.com Abstract In analyzing the ombudsman from the respesct of its historical roots, it is understood that this institution has been inspired by Islam state system and Otoman state system. The institution ombudsman has been implemented in countries more than 100 today and overtaken the mission of protecting the citizens against the maladministration, securing the fundamental rights and liberty and constituted security for both governing and governed. In this study, it is offered that the fundamental rights and freedoms should be under the security, all activities of the government should be under the control of jurisdiction and the significance of this institution sould be awared in realizing the legal governance. Keywords: Ombudsman, law state, fundamental rights and freedoms, justice, control and judicial control. 335 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.INTRODUCTION The democratic state of law aims to provide the legal security of governed against the governing body. This aim requires the efficient and effective control of the governmental activities and operations. In the control of the public administration, it is frequently mentioned that the control mechanisms are not adequate enough, far from the providding the legal framework of the individual, political control is not effective, the administrative control have the priority for preserving the interests of government rather than the citizens and the information about the security setting has some fallacies, and the administrative discipline has been overemphasized. This mechanism of tutelage control has subjected of some political considerations and thus, the expected results can not be obtained. In case of the judicial control, it is costly, formative, constrained with the legalistic control, inadequate accordinto the assertations of scentific circles (Baylan 1978: 146-157; Temizel 1997: 26-33; Akıncı 1999: 357-358; Avşar 1999: 27). The institution ombudsman as a control mechanizm which is established in order to protect the rights of the citizens against the government, search the solution against the maladministration, and providing the contribution for the sake of improvement of the government has been widely implemented since it has emerged firstly in history. In this context, it will be very important to analyse this institution in order to guide the countries which are not using this mechanism by refering the practices of more than hundred countries with its different types and structures. In this presentation, the role of the ombudsman in preventing the problems arisen from the state of law has been elaborated and the process, trajectories and stages which the ombudsman institution has been followed form its initial point has been explained. 2. THE NOTION OMBUDSMAN: EMERGENCE AND DEVELOPMENT It is widely known that the governed had some troubles against the governing body during the history and the governed always was search of constituting a legitimate instruments and suitable grounds to put their complaints into words. The emergence of the ombudsman can be seen as the results of these kinds of attempts. It is known that the ombdusman institution in todays meaning was established the first time in history in Sweden and spread on alarge area of the world. Ombudsman in original respect is a Swedish word means spokeman, representative, nominee, depute, delegate, advocate and protector (Schwarzler, 1992: 1; Al-Wahab 1979: 19; Ataman, 1997: 779). The term ombudsman imples a public servant or private office whom receives the 336 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo complaints of the people pertainig with the affairs committed by the various bureaucratic bodies (Pickl, 1986: 37). Ombudsman institution has been implemented within the international level, in some countries national level and the rest of them regional or provincial levels in respect of local authorities and state economic enterprises. Ombudsman institution has been implemented both in private and public sectors in different types and entitled in different names. In analysing the historical roots of the ombudsman institution, it can be easily seen that this ombudsman institution has been derived by the the divinal opinions of Islamic state system and Ottoman Empire. In Islam religion,the creation of justice is one of the principles to constitute the Islamic thought and philosophy. In this understanding, in executing the justice there would be a kind of executive and complaint mechanism had very significance. Nevertheless, Khalif Ömer created the institution “muhtesip” (official for public order) performed the duties of protecting the general morality, managing the market places, protecting the seller and purchaser and settling the disputes and conflicts (Pickl, 1997: 800805). In Islamic state (Emevid, Abbasid, Mameluk, Seljuk) there had some institutions to evaluate the complaints of people and to rule the case among institutions entitled as “Divan-ı Mezalim” (diwan for atrocities) or Dar’ul adl (house of justice) and “muhtesip” (official for public order). This mission has been performed by “Divan-ı Hümayun” (supreme court) in Ottoman Empire (Eryılmaz 2000: 312). In Ottoman state had very important post called as “Kadilkuzat” who monitors the implementation of Islamic law in every field of life and the protect the life of people originated from the abusement of government executives and unlawfulness (Pickl, 1997: 800-805). Kadı al Kudat who had a position who operated the complant and control mechanism with ombudsman-like logic in Ottoman state as well as tthe other councils and officials and “Divan-ı Mezalim” (diwan for atrocities) or Dar’ul adl (house of justice) In creating the ombudsman institution with nowadays understanding, it is supposed to mentioned about the intersection of Sweden and Ottoman states in order to comprehend the inspiration among these cultures. That is, Seweden King Charles XII who as defeated to Russia in Poltava 1709 stayed in Bender for three and half years and Dometika for two years with political asylum and thank to that long –time residence, he had an opportunity to aware the Ottoman political and social life and examine closely the rapid decision-making process of supreme court “Divan-ı Hümayun” (supreme court), “muhtesip” (official for public order) “Kadilkuzat” who monitors the implementation of Islamic law in every field of life and the protect the life of people originated from the abusement of government executives and unlawfulness “Divan-ı Mezalim” (diwan for atrocities) or Dar’ul adl (house of justice) for the name of Sultan. He witnessed that these councils and persons such as kadı (muslim judge) and kazasker (soldier judge) was analysing the complains of people by public servants and 337 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo protecting them from the unlawful, purposeful operations and activities and compensating the damage produced by these transactions and inspired by these institutions and actors who tries to remove the disorder and restlessness and sent his country Royal Writ in 1713 (Odyakmaz, 2000: 488). With this Royal Writ, a person (Hogste ombudsmannen) who is supposed to monitor the obedience of the judges and administrators in accordance with the laws and rules for the name of king has been appointed to Stockholm (Uler 1990: 1022). After coming back to his country, the King witnessed that Hogste ombudsmannen (Swedish conterpart of omdusman instiution) performed the same job with the Ottoman one and carried out his mission and appointed him permanatly as the observer of the King. As a result, as the observer of the King, this institution became into a constitutional body entitled as “Justitieombudsmen” in Sweden Constitution prepared in 1809 (Rudholm 1968: 18). By the settlement of democracy in Sweden, it is determined that the ombudsman would observe the executive body and all public institutions on behalf of legislationand with some constitutional amendments the athorization and effectiveness of omdusman were enlarged and widened and thus, transformed into an independent body against the Parliament (Baylan: 1978: 7). The omdusman institution today have been implemented more than 100 countries with different types and forms and overtaken the mission of securing the fundamental rights and freedoms and contributing the improvement of the administration and constituting a trust or guarantee. The ombudsman institution was charged with protecting the human rights and liberties against the power and government in Scandinavian countries (such as denmark and Norway) and Sweden which arisen the first time in history. Parliament ombudsman and local authority ombudsman in Britain was responsible from the the protection of governed against the maladministration, French Mediateur was tasked with the equity and fairness in govening and governed relations. 3. THE FUNCTIONS OF OMBUDSMAN In considering the historical evolutionary period from the beginning in Sweden and today and different implementation of the countries, we witness that the ombudsman institution had very important tasks and mission such as giving advise to the government and domanstrate the prudential way of solution, preventing the maladministration, preventing the arbitrary, illegitimate and improper attitude and behaviors, hearing the citizen compliamnet arisen from the unlawful practices (Eken 1999: 135). The significance of the ombudsman institution increases because nowadays the expectations from the public service increases. the ombudsman institution with its independence, 338 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo impartiality, rapidity, inexpensiveness and esily available character makes surveillance and inspection much more effective, efficient and qualified. 3.1. Its Protection Function Ombudsman undertakes the in practising countries the protection mission of citizen against the maladministration, securing the rights and liberties (Temizel 1997: 767). One of the most important tasks of the ombudsman institution is the protection of populace against the singlesided, unrightful and mistaken decisions of public administration and their arbitrary implementations (Seneviratne 1994: 132). The ombudsman institution in case of suffering damage and incuring loses because of the transactions, activities and operations of the government investigates, probes, searchs, hears and inspects the sitution depending upon its authorities and takes necessary precautions. The ombudsman institution serves the mobilization of the protection mechanism against the abusing and exploting the public power which the governemt possess against the governed (Woolf 1990: 92). Sometimes protection of the governmental rights against the remours of corruption, unrightful demands and requests of the populace and recommendation of the equal instead of justifiabe decision are amnong the teaks and duties of the ombudsman institution. Thus, the acquittal of the governmental authorities from the accusitions and allegations and the protection of the public servants form the untrue and rootless blame, imputations and indictments and restoration of trust over the governed citizens. 3.2. Its Inspection Function Systematic, productive and regular performance of the government, its production of the service which is convenient with the expectations of the governed populace and the provision of the popular respect can be possible with the perminent, effective and efficient inspection (Akıncı 1999: 292). The ombudsman institution undertakes the mission of removing the insufficiency and ineffective of the existing the inspection and surveillance mechanisms and institutions and becoming supporter, auxilary and complementary part of them in setting solutions in respect of surveillance against the incerasingly enlarging athorties of the public servants and governments. The ombudsman institution facilitates the participation of the people into the inspection of the government as a mechnism which is costless, free to claim the populace’s rights, informalist, alowing the easily obtain the result (Odyakmaz ve Erhürman, 1998: 3762). This character of ombudsman institution increase the influence of the inspection and this function contributes 339 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the preventation of maladministration and enhancement of the well- administration by reforming the attitudes and behaviours of the governing elites. 3.3. Its Reformative Function of Government The ombudsman institution serves the contribution for the development of the democracy, human rights, supremacy of law, and the settlement of the human rights within the society and the provision of effective participation of citizen into the inspection and lastly, the emergence of plural democracy, cultural plurality, multiculturalism, delibrative democracy and the inveteration of new plural government strategy (Ayeni 1997: 543). The ombudsman institution undertakes the responsibility of awaring the people to protect their rights and warning the governing bodies to ameliorate the maladministration and take the necessary precautions for impartial, rapid and effective solutions (Seneviratne 1999: 165). Ombudsman prepares and publishs the annual and special reports every year about the maladministration, in which ways it can emergence and its ways of solution in order to give imformation to the governmental authorities (Seneviratne 1998: 93-94). The determination of the government and inspection techniques which governments necessiates and their implementation are tasks and duties of the ombudsman institution as volunteer guidance and counselling, confering inquiry mechanism. Accordingly, by overtaking the role of educating and directing in government enhances the increasing of the productivity, effectiveness and efficiency and the settlement of the understanding for the delibrative and participatory democracy. 4.THE CONTRIBUTION OF OMBUDSMAN INSTITUTION INTO THE STATE OF LAW The state of law means a kind of state which is devoted to rules of law, secures the legal guarantee for the citizens and limits herself with her legal framework. In the state of law, public servants, state and the citizens were balanced in respect of legal loyalty. Nobody, no institution is not immuned and excepted from the legal bound in any state of law (Kaboğlu 1989: 145). The Constitutional Court describes the state of law as “respectful to human rights, establishing the legal order to protect these rights, undertaking the mission of all transaction, activities and opertaion adapted into the legal framework” (25.05.1976 date and E. 1976, K. 1976/28 number resolution of the Constitutional Court). In the state of law, the executive, juridicial, and legislative bodies are supposed to be loyal to the law (Gözler 2000: 170). The understanding of the state of law is a principle expected from borth governing and governed 340 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (Gözler 2009: 24). The understanding of the state of law is the most important and essential and ultimate stage of the contemporary democratic states. The legal adaptation of all activities of the state requires the judicial inspection. Judicial inspection is one of the most effective way among the types of inspection over the government. The ombudsman institution may contribute to solve the problems arisen from the process of the judicial inspection. This instituion is not an alternative but auxiliary mechanism which functions as strengthening body of the judicial inspection and removing the obstacle against the jurisdiction. Inspite of the all positive dimensions of the judicial inspection, it proceeds slowly and thus, its effectiveness and efficiency lessens. In this context, the ombudsman institution can produce the security by solving the peacefull settlement of disputes and conflicts for a short time-limit. As a matter of fact, the number of the claims, disputes and conflicts to be subjected of the judicial inspection will be lessened and thus, trust for the judicial inspection will be provided again (Özden 2004: 569). The judicial inspection with its expensive and formalist characteris is not preferable and the bureauctaric ilnesses is worsening. Whereas the ombudsman institution with its easily available and informalist and inexpensive character may contribute the solution of conflicts and lessening of the judicial burden as an auxilary of the judicial body. The ombudsman institution could have an opportunity both legality audit and discretionary and expediency inspection and takes action against the transactions and activities which are arising the damage, harm and insuitable to fairness and equity but suitable to the law (Keneş 1997: 791). Whereas, the judicial inspection is a sort of jurisdiction which is limited with the legal adaptation of governmental transactions and activities and excludes both legality audit and discretionary and expediency inspection. Therefore, even if there would be damage for the governed by the legal activities, there couldn’t be any intervention by the judicial places and there would be no compensation. Hence, the rights of the governed is protected under all circumstances, the justice feelings and awareness of the citizens were strenghtening and improving the government-citizen relation. The ombudsman institution gives information to the people who has complain about the transactions and activities of the government and how to apply and to which place of jurisdiction. It plays a kind of counselling role in transmitting the complaints into the jurisdiction and accelarating the judicial process.as a second hearing and inspection, in case of the decisions and activities of the omdusman was litigated, it can provide to create much more prudential resolutions. 341 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The ombudsman institution whose primary priority is the implementation of the inspection over the government (Erhüman, 2000: 157), contributes the settlement of the state of law and the protection of individula rights and liberties. In spreading and penetrating the idea of democracy over the different segments of society and developing the virtual, fair, and just social order, protecting the vested interets and practising the liberties as tangible symbols in social life. Ombudsman with its authorities which does not include any tangible sanction is an indication of respect for law by any society which claims and demands the democracy and the state of law 5.CONCLUSION In any state of the law, two important elements have been pointed out: Legal dependence of the government and security of the liberties and fundamnetal rights. In order to realize these two principles, it is inevitably required to create the legal and judicial control in order to solve the problems arisen from the inspection of the judicial control. Beside that legalty audit and prudentil control has been committed by the ombudsman institution, Together with the constitution of the ombudsman institution, the removal of all problems within the inspection of the public management, protection of maladministration totally and reformation of the government. Neverthelss, it is not a magical mechanism and institution. The problems in public administration always will be increasingly enlarged because of the interventionalist character and the authority widening. As a matter of fact, the ombudsman institution could not solve all of the governmental problems. Due to the fact that the enhancement, adoption, support of the the ombudsman institution by hoth ge-overning and governed depending upon the time and space, the importance and effectiveness of the ombudsman institution will be increased. It is not possible the existing inspection mechanisms to provide the exigences of the state of the law and secure the fundamental rights and freedoms and enhance the effectivenss and efficiency as well as the ombudsman institution. For this reason, in order to develop and the ombudsman institution in convenience with the demands of the public opinion and social environment by discussing the problems and the precaution to be taken. BIBLIOGRAPHY Akıncı, Müslüm, Bağımsız İdari Otoriteler ve Ombudsman, İstanbul, Beta Yayımcılık, 1999, Al-Wahab, İbrahim, The Swedish Institution of Ombudsman, Stockholm, Liber Forlag, 1979, Ataman, Taykan, “Ombudsman ve Temiz Toplum”, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, Siyasette Yozlaşma Özel Sayısı II, Yıl 3, Sayı 14, Mart-Nisan 1997, 342 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Avşar, Zakir, Ombudsman (Kamu Hakemi) Türkiye İçin Bir Model Önerisi, Ankara, Hak-İş Konfederasyonu Yayını, 1999, Ayeni, Victor, “Evolution of and Prospects For the Ombudsman in Southern Africa”, International Review of Administrative Science, Vol 63, Issue 4, 1997/12, Baylan, Ömer, Vatandaşın Devlet Yönetimi Hakkındaki Şikayetleri ve Türkiye İçin İsveç Ombudsmanı Formulü, Ankara, İçişleri Bakanlığı Teftiş Kurulu Başkanlığı Yayını, 1978, Gözübüyük, A.Şeref, Yönetim Hukuku, Turhan Kitabevi, Ankara, 2009 Eken, Musa, “Yönetim Karşısında Vatandaşın Korunmasında Ombudsman Kurumunun Rolü”, ed. Davut Dursun, Hazma Al, Türkiye’de Yönetim Geleneği, İstanbul, İlke Yayınları, No 24, 1998, s.131-139. Erhürman, Tufan, “Türkiye İçin Nasıl Bir Ombudsman Formülü?”, Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt 49, Sayı 1-4, 2000, s.155-179. Eryılmaz, Bilal, Kamu Yönetimi, İstanbul, Erkam Matbaacılık, 2000. Gözler, Kemal, Türk Anayasa Hukuku. Ekin yayıncılık. Bursa, 2000 Kaboğlu, İbrahim. Ö., “Türkiye’de Hukuk Devletinin Gelişimi”, TODAİE İnsan Hakları Yıllığı,1989, 12: 139-166. Keneş, Bülent, “Bir Denetim Mekanizması Olarak Ombudsman, Türkiye’deki İhtiyaçlara Ne Kadar Cevap Verebilir?”, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, 97/13, 1997, Kirkham, Richard, “Prevention is Better Than Litigation: The Importance of Good Administration”, Journal of Social Welfare and Family Law, 26(3), 2004, s.305-306. Nobles Richard, “Keeping Ombudsmen in Their Place-The Courts and the Pensions Ombudsman”, Public Law, Summer 2001, Odyakmaz, Zehra, “Türk Hukuk Kurultayına Sunulan İsveç Parlamento Ombudsmanlığı ile İlgili Bildiri Üzerine Düşünceler”, Ankara Barosu Hukuk Kurultayı 2000, Ankara, 12-16 Ocak 2000, Odyakmaz, Zehra, Tufan Erhürman, “Ombudsman Kurumunun Cumhuriyet Rejimine Katkısı”, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, Cumhuriyet Özel Sayısı V, Yıl 4, Sayı 23-24, Eylül-Aralık 1998, Özden, Kemal, “Yerel Yönetimler Biga/Çanakkale, 3-4 Aralık 2004, Ombudsmanı”,Yerel Yönetimler Kongresi, Pickl, Vicktor J., “Ombudsman Sistemlerinin İslami Temelleri”, çev. Taykan Ataman, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, Siyasette Yozlaşma Özel Sayısı, Yıl 3, Sayı 14, Mart-Nisan 1997, s.800-805. Pickl, Vicktor J., “Ombudsman ve Yönetimde Reform”, çev. Turgay Ergun, Amme İdaresi Dergisi, Cilt 19, Sayı 4, Aralık 1986, Rudholm, Sten, “Sweden’s Guardians of The Law: The Chancellor of Justice”, ed. Donald C. 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Federal Chancellery, Public Administration in Austuria, Austuria, 1992, Seneviratne, Mary, “Local Government Ombudsman”, Journal of Social Welfare and Family Law, 20(1), 1998, Seneviratne, Mary, “The Local Government Ombudsman”, Journal of Social Welfare and Family Law, 21(2), 1999, Seneviratne, Mary, Ombudsmen in the Public Sector, Open University Press, 1994, Temizel, Zekeriya, “Yurttaşın Yönetime Karşı Korunmasında Bir Başka Denetim Organı: Ombudsman”, Yeni Türkiye Dergisi, Siyasette Yozlaşma Özel Sayısı II, Yıl 3, Sayı 14, MartNisan 1997, Temizel, Zekeriya, Yurttaşın Yönetime Karşı Korunmasında Bağımsız Bir Denetim Organı Ombusman, İstanbul, IULA-EMME Yayınları, 1997, TÜSİAD, Ombudsman (Kamu Hakemi) Kurumu İncelemesi: Devlette Bir Toplam Kalite Mekanizması Örneği, TÜSİAD Yayını No T/97-206, Ocak 1997, Uler, Yıldırım, “Ombudsman (Kamu Denetçisi)”, I. Ulusal İdare Hukuku Kongresi, Üçüncü Kitap, Çeşitli İdare Hukuku Konuları, Ankara, 1-4 Mayıs 1990, Woolf, Harry, The Protection of the Public-a New Challenge, London, Stevens, 1990. Next Step Of Corporate Governance: Appreciative Inquiry In Corporate Governance Çiftçi Münire, Öztürk Umut Can Süleyman Demirel University- Faculty Of Economics And Administrative SciencesTurkey/Isparta E-mails: munireciftci@sdu.edu.tr,umutcn.ozturk@gmail.com Abstract It was seen in the last decade that traditional management system and models cannot meet the needs of today. Crisis and scandals have proved the need for a more transparent and participatory structure. Governance met this need for a certain period of time and presented a more useful model. However through the end of 2000s negative effects of modern structures were seen; such as being quantitative and unnecessarily rational which make participants fear of doing wrong. In this case postmodern approaches came into agenda. One of them is 344 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1130 Title A name given to the resource The Importance And The Place Of Ombudsman In Law State Author Author Feyzullah, Ünal Abstract A summary of the resource. In analyzing the ombudsman from the respesct of its historical roots, it is understood that this institution has been inspired by Islam state system and Otoman state system. The institution ombudsman has been implemented in countries more than 100 today and overtaken the mission of protecting the citizens against the maladministration, securing the fundamental rights and liberty and constituted security for both governing and governed. In this study, it is offered that the fundamental rights and freedoms should be under the security, all activities of the government should be under the control of jurisdiction and the significance of this institution sould be awared in realizing the legal governance. Keywords: Ombudsman, law state, fundamental rights and freedoms, justice, control and judicial control. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General)