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3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Clustering Balkan Countries Based on Competitiveness Factors: A Strategic Perspective
Kazim Develioglu1 ,Kemal KantarcI2
1Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business,Department of Human Resource Management
Alanya-Antalya / TURKEY
2Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business,Department of Tourism Management
Alanya-Antalya / TURKEY
E-mails: kdevelioglu@akdeniz.edu.tr ,kantarci@akdeniz.edu.tr
Abstract
Prior to directing their investments, strategy makers at national and firm level need to know
competitive advantages and disadvantages in a country or region. By bearing this need in mind,
this study aims to examine competitive factors in Balkan countries to develop a road map for
investors. To do this, we used World Economic Forum’s “Global Competitivenes Index” to
analyse the case of Balkan countries as a region to cluster and compare them based on Global
competitiveness factors. Analysis results pointed out that Balkan countries were clustered in two
groups and scored lower or medium level on almost all competitive factors as the region. Based
on these findings, authors suggested various strategic recommendations at micro and macro level.
Keywords: Cluster, Competitiveness, Strategic Management, Balkan Countries
1.Literature review
In an era of great competition among nations and firms, it is vital for firms’ strategy makers to
develop strategies to adapt to environmental changes and speed their processes. Vietor (2006)
indicates that, in national level, as a result of globalizaton, countries compete each other in terms
of markets, technology, skills, and investment to grow and raise their standards of living.
Although, macroeconomic competitiveness creates the potential for high productivity, it is not
sufficient. Productivity ultimately depends on improving the micro economic capability of the
economy and sophistication of local competition (Porter, 2009).
Economic Forum (2011) defines competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies, and factors
that determine the level of productivity of a country. The level of productivity, in turn, sets the
level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy. The productivity level also determines the
rates of return obtained by investments in an economy, which in turn are the fundamental drivers
of its growth rates. In other words, a more competitive economy is one that is likely to grow
faster over time.
125
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
“Competitive strategy is the search for a favorable competitive position in an industry, the
fundamental arena in which competition occurs. Competitive strategy aims to establish a
profitable and sustainable position against the forces that determine industry competition”
(Porter, 2004: 1).
To be competitive, nations are struggling to remain competitive by having regional
specializations in terms of hihger value added – non manufacturing industries and Research &
Development intensive manufacturing niches (OECD, 2007). Similarly, Porter (2009) indicates
that competitiveness depends on the productivity with which a nation uses its human, capital, and
natural resources. Economic coordination among neighboring countries can significantly enhance
competitiveness. By the similar vein, as developing countries, economic collaboration among
Balkan countries is expected to enhance sustainable competition. At this point, it has to be noted
that competition policies of advanced countries might not be appropriate for the stage of
development of most developing countries (Singh, 1999). Singh (1999) indicates that “It is
important for developing countries to have a competition policy which is designed to take
appropriate account of their level of development and the long term objective of sustained
economic growth. This is in part due to the potential effects of the international merger
movement and also because of privatization, deregulation and liberalization which have occurred
in the domestic economies of most developing countries” (pp. 1).
As a developing region, the Balkan peninsula is becoming recovered and develop after postsocialist and instable period because of the war among some of states. “The Balkan Peninsula is
an important area, having witnessed important historical and political experiences and incidents
for ages” (Çelebioğlu 2011: 112). Having a population of, nearly, 140 million citizens, the
Balkan region provides a promising market for firms from international arena and especially
Balkan countries. As it is indicated in WEF’s (2011-2012) Global Competitiveness Report,
“national competitiveness, we note that despite much work in the area of sustainability, there is
not yet a well-established body of literature on the link between productivity (which is at the
heart of competitiveness) and sustainability. However, at the World Economic Forum we believe
that the relationship between competitiveness and sustainability is crucial (pp. 52). Developing
economically sound strategies, especially for international firms and firms from the region, it is
crucial to examine competitiveness indicators of Balkan countries. This will help firms to
develop a sustainable competitive edge by investing and selling in the region. Taking this
neccessity into account, this study aims to fill the gap for lack of comparative studies for Balkan
countries. More specifially, we analyse Balkan countries’ competitiveness factors by, first,
clustering them and, second, compare the clusters to grasp which cluster perform in which
competitive factor well.
In this study, we used the data of The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) classification of “Global
Competitiveness Index” factors to examine indicators that are expected to influence sustainable
competition in the region. for the years between 2008-2011. WEF’s classification consists of
three subindexes and 12 factors that measure these subindexes, which are reported below:
126
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Basic requirements
(Institutions, Infrastructure, Macroeconomic environment, and Health and primary
education)
Efficiency enhancers
(Higher education and training, Goods market efficiency, Labor market efficiency,
Financial market development, Technological readiness, and Market size)
Innovation and sophistication factors
(Business sophistication and Innovation)
2.Methodology
As it is mentioned above, in this study, we used the data of The World Economic Forum’s (WEF)
“Global Competitiveness Index” for the years between 2008-2011. By using the secondary data,
we aimed, first, to cluster the Balkan countries in terms of above mentioned “Global
competitiveness index factor”s and second to compare these clusters to reveal which of them are
more competitive in subindexes and factors.
3.Findings
In order to cluster the Balkan countries in terms of Global competitiveness factors, we employed
a k-means cluster analysis and derived two clusters, which is reported in Table 1 below. One of
these clusters (Cluster 1) includes countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Serbia, and
Turkey. The second cluster (Cluster 2) countries are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Macedonia, Montenegro, and Slovenia. Scores in Table 1 betray that only in market size
competitiveness factor, Cluster 1 countries have a competitive advantage compared with Cluster
2 countries.
Table 1: Cluster Analysis Results
Cluster
Global Competitiveness
Factor
1
2
F
p
Institutions
3,63
4,35
1,784
0,214
Infrastructure
4,00
3,38
0,401
0,542
Macroeconomic environment
4,70
4,93
1,827
0,209
Health and primary education
5,45
5,90
0,033
0,860
Higher education and training
3,95
4,38
0,022
0,885
127
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Goods market efficiency
4,33
4,35
0,396
0,545
Labor market efficiency
3,60
4,58
3,599
0,090
Financial market development
4,18
4,83
0,021
0,889
Technological readiness
3,78
4,05
0,105
0,754
Market size
5,20
2,05
15,499
0,003
Business sophistication
4,20
3,80
0,018
0,897
Innovation
3,13
3,30
0,120
0,737
Table 2: t-test Results for Cluster Membership and Global Competitiveness Subindexes
Variable
Basic requirements
Efficiency enhancers
Innovation and sophistication
factors
Std.
Deviation
Cluster
Mean
1
4,38
0,246
2
4,47
0,449
1
4,06
0,161
2
3,87
0,326
1
3,39
0,214
2
3,34
0,473
t
p
-0,858
0,396
2,547
0,015
0,479
0,634
In order to compare Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 countries, we used t-test analysis and obtained the
results, which are reported in Table 2 and Table 3. In table 2, we compared two clusters in terms
of Global Competitiveness subindexes. Results in Table 2 portray that Cluster 1 (Mean= 4,06)
and Cluster (Mean= 3,87) countries both had medium-level but statistically significant difference
(t= 2,547; P= 0,015) in efficiency enhancers subindex. For the other two subindexes, namely
basic requirements (t= 0,858; P= 0,396) and innovation and sophistication factors (t= 0,479; P=
0,634), both of the clusters showed no statistically significant results. It has to be noted that in
both, basic requirements and innovation and sophistication factors, Cluster 1 and Cluster 2
countries had medium level competitiveness scores.
128
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Table 3: t-test Results for Cluster Membership and Global Competitiveness Factors
Mean
Std.
Deviation
1
3,53
0,233
2
3,84
0,515
1
3,70
0,691
2
3,43
0,851
Macroeconomic
environment
1
4,55
0,482
2
4,89
0,435
Health and primary
education
1
5,73
0,228
2
5,76
0,319
Higher education and
training
1
4,21
0,254
2
4,17
0,625
Goods market efficiency
1
4,00
0,239
2
4,12
0,376
1
4,04
0,325
2
4,34
0,208
Financial market
development
1
4,04
0,224
2
4,07
0,504
Technological readiness
1
3,82
0,286
2
3,74
0,616
1
4,20
0,579
Variable
Institutions
Infrastructure
Labor market efficiency
Market size
129
Cluster
t
p
-2,657
0,011
1,158
0,254
-2,406
0,021
-0,332
0,741
0,305
0,762
-1,194
0,239
-3,592
0,001
-0,255
0,800
0,597
0,554
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Business sophistication
Innovation
2
2,83
0,479
1
3,75
0,313
2
3,72
0,427
1
3,45
0,131
2
2,97
0,507
8,427
0,000
0,268
0,790
0,705
0,485
Examination of Table 3 revealed mixed results for Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 countries. In Table 3,
the results betray that Cluster 2 countries scored better in three of twelve Global Competitiveness
factors than Cluster 1 countries. Only for market size competitiveness factor, Cluster 1 countries
had statistically significant difference scores (t= 8,427; P= 0,000).
4.Discussion
Analysis results at the findings section pointed out that competitiveness scores of Balkan
countries, whether it belongs Cluster 1 or Cluster 2, are relatively low or medium and need to be
developed. Specifically, Cluster 2 countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia,
Montenegro, and Slovenia) should have a national strategic plan to improve their competitive
position in infrastructure (quality of roads, railroads, ports, and airtransport infrastructure), higher
education and training (secondary education enrollment, tertiary education enrollment, quality of
the educational system, math &science education, management schools, internet access in
schools, availability of research and services), goods market efficiency (intensity of local
competition, extent of market dominance, effectiveness of anti-monopoly policy, extent and
effect of taxation, total tax rate, number of procedures to start a business, agricultural policy cost,
buyer sophistication), labor market efficiency (cooperation in labor-employer relations, flexibility
of wage determination, hirin and firing practices, women in labor force), financial market
development (availability of financial services, effordability of financial services, ease of access
to loans, ventur capital availability), technological readiness (availability of latest technologies,
firm-level technology absorption, FDI and technology transfer, internet related factors), business
sophistication (local supplier quantity and quality, state of cluster development, nature of
competitive advantage, control of international distribution, extent of amrketing, willingness to
delegate authority), and innovation (capacity for innovation, quality of scientific research
institutions, company spending on R&D, utility patents granted).
Similarly, Cluster 1 countries should emphasize on development of institutions, infrastructure,
financial market, and technological environment and better conditions in macroeconomic
environment, higher education and training, goods market efficiency, business sophistication, and
innovation. It seems from analysis results that the major advantage for these cluster is their
population and market size. This picture warns us that firms plan to invest in the Balkan region
should be aware of disadvantageous competitive factors in both cluster countries. It seems that
eventhough both clusters have disadvantages for investors they also offer certain advantages for
130
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
them. We believe that for strategy makers in national governments and firms, these findings
provide useful insights to develop their strategic plans.
REFERENCES
Çelebioğlu, F. (2011). Investigation of Development Indicators in the Balkan Countries for the
Post-Socialist Period, Journal of Economic and Social Studies, Volume 1, Number 1, 111-122.
Porter, M. E. (2004). Competitive Advantage, Free Press, New York.
Porter, M. E. (2009). The Competitive Advantage of Nations, States, and Regions, Harvard
Business School, Advanced Management Program.
OECD, (2007). Competitive Regional Clusters: National Policy Approaches,
(http://www.oecd.org/document/2/0,3746,en_2649_33735_38174082_1_1_1_1,00.html),
(22.04.2012).
Singh, A., (1999). Competition Policy, development and developing Countries, Indian Council
for research on international economic relations, New Delhi.
Vietor, R.H.K. (2006). Strategy, Structure, and Government in the Global Economy, Harvard
Business School Press ,Boston, Massachusetts.
World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, (2008-2009).
World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, (2009-2010).
World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, (2010-2011).
World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, (2011-2012).
131
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Clustering Balkan Countries Based on Competitiveness Factors: A Strategic Perspective
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Kazim , Develioglu
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Prior to directing their investments, strategy makers at national and firm level need to know competitive advantages and disadvantages in a country or region. By bearing this need in mind, this study aims to examine competitive factors in Balkan countries to develop a road map for investors. To do this, we used World Economic Forum’s “Global Competitivenes Index” to analyse the case of Balkan countries as a region to cluster and compare them based on Global competitiveness factors. Analysis results pointed out that Balkan countries were clustered in two groups and scored lower or medium level on almost all competitive factors as the region. Based on these findings, authors suggested various strategic recommendations at micro and macro level. Keywords: Cluster, Competitiveness, Strategic Management, Balkan Countries
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PDF Text
Text
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Clustering Balkan Countries Based on Competitiveness Factors: A Strategic
Perspective
Kazim Develioglu1, Kemal Kantarci2
1Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business,Department of Human Resource
Management
2Akdeniz University, Alanya Faculty of Business
Department of Tourism Management
E-mails: kdevelioglu@akdeniz.edu.tr, kantarci@akdeniz.edu.tr
Abstract
Prior to directing their investments, strategy makers at national and firm level need to know
competitive advantages and disadvantages in a country or region. By bearing this need in
mind, this study aims to examine competitive factors in Balkan countries to develop a road
map for investors. To do this, we used World Economic Forum’s “Global Competitivenes
Index” to analyse the case of Balkan countries as a region to cluster and compare them based
on Global competitiveness factors. Analysis results pointed out that Balkan countries were
clustered in two groups and scored lower or medium level on almost all competitive factors
as the region. Based on these findings, authors suggested various strategic recommendations
at micro and macro level.
Keywords: Cluster, Competitiveness, Strategic Management, Balkan Countries
1.Literature review
In an era of great competition among nations and firms, it is vital for firms’ strategy makers
to develop strategies to adapt to environmental changes and speed their processes. Vietor
(2006) indicates that, in national level, as a result of globalizaton, countries compete each
other in terms of markets, technology, skills, and investment to grow and raise their standards
of living. Although, macroeconomic competitiveness creates the potential for high
productivity, it is not sufficient. Productivity ultimately depends on improving the micro
economic capability of the economy and sophistication of local competition (Porter, 2009).
Economic Forum (2011) defines competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies, and
factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. The level of productivity, in turn,
sets the level of prosperity that can be earned by an economy. The productivity level also
determines the rates of return obtained by investments in an economy, which in turn are the
199
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
fundamental drivers of its growth rates. In other words, a more competitive economy is one
that is likely to grow faster over time.
“Competitive strategy is the search for a favorable competitive position in an industry, the
fundamental arena in which competition occurs. Competitive strategy aims to establish a
profitable and sustainable position against the forces that determine industry competition”
(Porter, 2004: 1).
To be competitive, nations are struggling to remain competitive by having regional
specializations in terms of hihger value added – non manufacturing industries and Research
& Development intensive manufacturing niches (OECD, 2007). Similarly, Porter (2009)
indicates that competitiveness depends on the productivity with which a nation uses its
human, capital, and natural resources. Economic coordination among neighboring countries
can significantly enhance competitiveness. By the similar vein, as developing countries,
economic collaboration among Balkan countries is expected to enhance sustainable
competition. At this point, it has to be noted that competition policies of advanced countries
might not be appropriate for the stage of development of most developing countries (Singh,
1999). Singh (1999) indicates that “It is important for developing countries to have a
competition policy which is designed to take appropriate account of their level of
development and the long term objective of sustained economic growth. This is in part due to
the potential effects of the international merger movement and also because of privatization,
deregulation and liberalization which have occurred in the domestic economies of most
developing countries” (pp. 1).
As a developing region, the Balkan peninsula is becoming recovered and develop after postsocialist and instable period because of the war among some of states. “The Balkan Peninsula
is an important area, having witnessed important historical and political experiences and
incidents for ages” (Çelebioğlu 2011: 112). Having a population of, nearly, 140 million
citizens, the Balkan region provides a promising market for firms from international arena
and especially Balkan countries. As it is indicated in WEF’s (2011-2012) Global
Competitiveness Report, “national competitiveness, we note that despite much work in the
area of sustainability, there is not yet a well-established body of literature on the link between
productivity (which is at the heart of competitiveness) and sustainability. However, at the
World Economic Forum we believe that the relationship between competitiveness and
sustainability is crucial (pp. 52). Developing economically sound strategies, especially for
international firms and firms from the region, it is crucial to examine competitiveness
indicators of Balkan countries. This will help firms to develop a sustainable competitive
edge by investing and selling in the region. Taking this neccessity into account, this study
aims to fill the gap for lack of comparative studies for Balkan countries. More specifially, we
analyse Balkan countries’ competitiveness factors by, first, clustering them and, second,
compare the clusters to grasp which cluster perform in which competitive factor well.
200
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
In this study, we used the data of The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) classification of
“Global Competitiveness Index” factors to examine indicators that are expected to influence
sustainable competition in the region. for the years between 2008-2011. WEF’s classification
consists of three subindexes and 12 factors that measure these subindexes, which are reported
below:
Basic requirements
(Institutions, Infrastructure, Macroeconomic environment, and Health and primary
education)
Efficiency enhancers
(Higher education and training, Goods market efficiency, Labor market efficiency,
Financial market development, Technological readiness, and Market size)
Innovation and sophistication factors
(Business sophistication and Innovation)
2.Methodology
As it is mentioned above, in this study, we used the data of The World Economic Forum’s
(WEF) “Global Competitiveness Index” for the years between 2008-2011. By using the
secondary data, we aimed, first, to cluster the Balkan countries in terms of above mentioned
“Global competitiveness index factor”s and second to compare these clusters to reveal which
of them are more competitive in subindexes and factors.
3.Findings
In order to cluster the Balkan countries in terms of Global competitiveness factors, we
employed a k-means cluster analysis and derived two clusters, which is reported in Table 1
below. One of these clusters (Cluster 1) includes countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece,
Romania, Serbia, and Turkey. The second cluster (Cluster 2) countries are Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Slovenia. Scores in Table 1 betray that only
in market size competitiveness factor, Cluster 1 countries have a competitive advantage
compared with Cluster 2 countries.
Table 1: Cluster Analysis Results
Cluster
Global Competitiveness Factor
1
2
F
p
Institutions
3,63
4,35
1,784
0,214
Infrastructure
4,00
3,38
0,401
0,542
Macroeconomic environment
4,70
4,93
1,827
0,209
Health and primary education
5,45
5,90
0,033
0,860
Higher education and training
3,95
4,38
0,022
0,885
201
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Goods market efficiency
4,33
4,35
0,396
0,545
Labor market efficiency
3,60
4,58
3,599
0,090
Financial market development
4,18
4,83
0,021
0,889
Technological readiness
3,78
4,05
0,105
0,754
Market size
5,20
2,05
15,499
0,003
Business sophistication
4,20
3,80
0,018
0,897
Innovation
3,13
3,30
0,120
0,737
Table 2: t-test Results for Cluster Membership and Global Competitiveness Subindexes
Std.
Deviation
Variable
Basic requirements
Efficiency enhancers
Innovation and sophistication factors
Cluster
Mean
1
4,38
0,246
2
4,47
0,449
1
4,06
0,161
2
3,87
0,326
1
3,39
0,214
2
3,34
0,473
t
p
-0,858
0,396
2,547
0,015
0,479
0,634
In order to compare Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 countries, we used t-test analysis and obtained
the results, which are reported in Table 2 and Table 3. In table 2, we compared two clusters in
terms of Global Competitiveness subindexes. Results in Table 2 portray that Cluster 1
(Mean= 4,06) and Cluster (Mean= 3,87) countries both had medium-level but statistically
significant difference (t= 2,547; P= 0,015) in efficiency enhancers subindex. For the other
two subindexes, namely basic requirements (t= 0,858; P= 0,396) and innovation and
sophistication factors (t= 0,479; P= 0,634), both of the clusters showed no statistically
significant results. It has to be noted that in both, basic requirements and innovation and
sophistication factors, Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 countries had medium level competitiveness
scores.
Table 3: t-test Results for Cluster Membership and Global Competitiveness Factors
Variable
202
Cluster
Mean
Std.
t
p
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Deviation
Institutions
Infrastructure
Macroeconomic environment
Health and primary education
Higher education and training
Goods market efficiency
Labor market efficiency
Financial market development
Technological readiness
Market size
Business sophistication
Innovation
1
3,53
0,233
2
3,84
0,515
1
3,70
0,691
2
3,43
0,851
1
4,55
0,482
2
4,89
0,435
1
5,73
0,228
2
5,76
0,319
1
4,21
0,254
2
4,17
0,625
1
4,00
0,239
2
4,12
0,376
1
4,04
0,325
2
4,34
0,208
1
4,04
0,224
2
4,07
0,504
1
3,82
0,286
2
3,74
0,616
1
4,20
0,579
2
2,83
0,479
1
3,75
0,313
2
3,72
0,427
1
3,45
0,131
2
2,97
0,507
-2,657
0,011
1,158
0,254
-2,406
0,021
-0,332
0,741
0,305
0,762
-1,194
0,239
-3,592
0,001
-0,255
0,800
0,597
0,554
8,427
0,000
0,268
0,790
0,705
0,485
Examination of Table 3 revealed mixed results for Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 countries. In Table
3, the results betray that Cluster 2 countries scored better in three of twelve Global
Competitiveness factors than Cluster 1 countries. Only for market size competitiveness
factor, Cluster 1 countries had statistically significant difference scores (t= 8,427; P= 0,000).
203
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
4.Discussion
Analysis results at the findings section pointed out that competitiveness scores of Balkan
countries, whether it belongs Cluster 1 or Cluster 2, are relatively low or medium and need to
be developed. Specifically, Cluster 2 countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Macedonia, Montenegro, and Slovenia) should have a national strategic plan to improve their
competitive position in infrastructure (quality of roads, railroads, ports, and airtransport
infrastructure), higher education and training (secondary education enrollment, tertiary
education enrollment, quality of the educational system, math &science education,
management schools, internet access in schools, availability of research and services), goods
market efficiency (intensity of local competition, extent of market dominance, effectiveness
of anti-monopoly policy, extent and effect of taxation, total tax rate, number of procedures to
start a business, agricultural policy cost, buyer sophistication), labor market efficiency
(cooperation in labor-employer relations, flexibility of wage determination, hirin and firing
practices, women in labor force), financial market development (availability of financial
services, effordability of financial services, ease of access to loans, ventur capital
availability), technological readiness (availability of latest technologies, firm-level
technology absorption, FDI and technology transfer, internet related factors), business
sophistication (local supplier quantity and quality, state of cluster development, nature of
competitive advantage, control of international distribution, extent of amrketing, willingness
to delegate authority), and innovation (capacity for innovation, quality of scientific research
institutions, company spending on R&D, utility patents granted).
Similarly, Cluster 1 countries should emphasize on development of institutions,
infrastructure, financial market, and technological environment and better conditions in
macroeconomic environment, higher education and training, goods market efficiency,
business sophistication, and innovation. It seems from analysis results that the major
advantage for these cluster is their population and market size. This picture warns us that
firms plan to invest in the Balkan region should be aware of disadvantageous competitive
factors in both cluster countries. It seems that eventhough both clusters have disadvantages
for investors they also offer certain advantages for them. We believe that for strategy makers
in national governments and firms, these findings provide useful insights to develop their
strategic plans.
REFERENCES
Çelebioğlu, F. (2011). Investigation of Development Indicators in the Balkan Countries for
the Post-Socialist Period, Journal of Economic and Social Studies, Volume 1, Number 1,
111-122.
Porter, M. E. (2004). Competitive Advantage, Free Press, New York.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Porter, M. E. (2009). The Competitive Advantage of Nations, States, and Regions, Harvard
Business School, Advanced Management Program.
OECD, (2007). Competitive Regional Clusters: National Policy Approaches,
(http://www.oecd.org/document/2/0,3746,en_2649_33735_38174082_1_1_1_1,00.html),
(22.04.2012).
Singh, A., (1999). Competition Policy, development and developing Countries, Indian
Council for research on international economic relations, New Delhi.
Vietor, R.H.K. (2006). Strategy, Structure, and Government in the Global Economy, Harvard
Business School Press ,Boston, Massachusetts.
World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, (2008-2009).
World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, (2009-2010).
World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, (2010-2011).
World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report, (2011-2012).
Implementation Of Critical Path Method And Project Evaluation And Review
Technique
Ali Göksu, Selma Ćatović
International Burch University,Faculty of economics Management and information
technologies
Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract
Because of the growing effects of the globalization in various business environments,
the manufacturing industry is expected to be effective and yet efficient. According to this, in
205
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Clustering Balkan Countries Based on Competitiveness Factors: A Strategic Perspective
Author
Author
Kazim, Develioglu
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Prior to directing their investments, strategy makers at national and firm level need to know competitive advantages and disadvantages in a country or region. By bearing this need in mind, this study aims to examine competitive factors in Balkan countries to develop a road map for investors. To do this, we used World Economic Forum’s “Global Competitivenes Index” to analyse the case of Balkan countries as a region to cluster and compare them based on Global competitiveness factors. Analysis results pointed out that Balkan countries were clustered in two groups and scored lower or medium level on almost all competitive factors as the region. Based on these findings, authors suggested various strategic recommendations at micro and macro level. Keywords: Cluster, Competitiveness, Strategic Management, Balkan Countries
Date
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2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
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3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Talinli, I., Topuz, E. and Akbay, M.U. (2010) Comparative Analysis for Energy Production
Processes (EPPs): Sustainable Energy Futures for Turkey, Energy Policy, 38, 44794488.
Toksarı, M. and Toksarı, M.D. (2011) Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Prosesi (AHP) Yaklaşımı
Kullanılarak Hedef Pazarın Belirlenmesi, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 38, 51-70.
Tseng, M-L., Lin, Y-H. and Chiu, A.S.F. (2009) Fuzzy AHP-Based Study of Cleaner
Production Implementation in Taiwan PWB Manufacturer, Journal of Cleaner
Production, 17, 1249-1256.
Wang, L., Xu, L. and Song, H. (2011) Environmental Performance Evaluation of Beijing's
Energy Use Planning, Energy Policy, 39, 3483-3495.
Zheng, G., Jing, Y., Huang, H., Shi, G. and Zhang, X. (2010) Developing a Fuzzy Analytic
Hierarchical Process Model for Building Energy Conservation Assessment,
Renewable Energy, 35, 78-87.
Zheng, J. (2011) Enterprise Knowledge Management Application Evaluation Based on Cloud
Gravity Center Model and Fuzzy Extended AHP, Journal of Computers, 6(6), 11101116.
Using Artificial Neural Networks To Forecast Gdp For Turkey
Karaatli Meltem, Göçmen Yağcilar Gamze, Karacadal Hüseyin, Sezer Fırat Suleyman
Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
E-mails: meltemkaraatli@sdu.edu.tr,gamzeyagcilar@sdu.edu.tr,
huseyin_karacadal@hotmail.com,cihangir_07_@hotmail.com
Abstract
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a system resembling biological neural systems and uses
working principles of human brain as a base. ANN can be applied in various fields for the
purposes of forecasting, classification, optimization, data binding and so on. ANN has been
frequently used in financial applications in recent years. In this study, ANN is used in
forecasting Gross Domestic Product of Turkey. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the
market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. GDP
can be thought as the size of an economy and it is the foremost important measure of
macroeconomic performance of a country, a country’s health and standard of living.
Therefore, expectations about future GDP can be the primary determinant of investments,
employment, wages, profits and even stock market activities. With respect to its economic
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significance mentioned above, the purpose of this study is to forecast Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) for Turkey and to test the ability of ANN Method in forecasting GDP.
Keywords: Importance of Gross Domestic Product, Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks.
1. INTRODUCTION
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total market value of all the final goods and services
produced within a country’s boarders in a given year. This production is generated by both
citizens of the country and foreigners living in its borders. GDP is one of the most important
indicators of an economic growth, health and welfare. Therefore, it tells us a lot about the real
economic activity.
Calculation of GDP can be basically done in one of two ways: either by adding up what
everyone earned (income approach), or by adding up what everyone spent (expenditure
method) in a year. Logically, both measures should arrive at roughly the same total
(www.investopedia.com). In Turkey, GDP is measured quarterly by TUİK. To compute
economic growth, each quarter is compared to the previous one.
Considering its large impact on almost everybody in an economy, forecasting GDP has a great
importance both theoretically and practically. First of all, GDP represents economic
production and growth. So it gives a signal about the future employment and wages. GDP also
determines stock market return rates. If GDP growth rate is positive, then investors may
expect to gain revenue (www.investopedia.com).By using GDP reports, it can be seen which
sectors of the economy are growing and which ones are declining. This would help investors
to determine whether they should invest in or which sectors they should invest in
(http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesticproduct/p/GDP.htm).
The GDP statistics can help the economists a lot in solving the problems of inflation in the
country. The national income figures throw light as to how much general price level has
increased or decreased, how much of their income people spend on consumption goods and
how much they save? Government can devise measures of controlling inflation or deflation on
the basis of these figures of consumption, saving and investment in the country
(http://www.economicsconcepts.com/gdp_as_a_measure_of_welfare.htm).
In the existing literature, forecasting GDP is widely studied with different methods. In this
paper, we wish to determine whether the forecasting performance of this variable can be
improved using neural network models. In this context, the purpose of this study is to forecast
GDP of Turkey using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) Method. The rest of this paper is
organized as follows: Section 2 reviews some of the literature on GDP forecasts. Section 3
describes the methodology, while Section 4 presents the results. Finally, section 5 concludes
the paper.
2. Literature review
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Tkacz and Hu (1999) have determined whether more accurate indicator models of output
growth, based on monetary and financial variables, can be developed using neural networks.
The authors have used ANN model to forecast GDP growth for Canada. The main findings of
this study are that, at the 1-quarter forecasting horizon, neural networks yield no significant
forecast improvements. At the 4-quarter horizon, however, the improved forecast accuracy is
statistically significant. The root mean squared forecast errors of the best neural network
models are about 15 to 19 per cent lower than their linear model counterparts.
Marcellino (2007) has evaluated whether complicated time series models can outperform
standard linear models for forecasting GDP growth and inflation for the United States. In the
study, it is considered as a large variety of models and evaluation criteria, using a bootstrap
algorithm to evaluate the statistical significance of the results. The main conclusion is that in
general linear time series, models can be hardly beaten if they are carefully specified.
Schumacher and Breitung (2008) have employed factor models to forecast German GDP
using mixed-frequency real-time data, where the time series are subject to different statistical
publication lags. In the empirical application, the authors have used a novel real-time dataset
for the German economy. Employing a recursive forecast experiment, they have evaluated the
forecast accuracy of the factor model with respect to German GDP.
Guegan and Rakotomarolahy (2010) have conducted an empirical forecast accuracy
comparison of the non-parametric method, known as multivariate Nearest Neighbor method,
with parametric VAR modeling on the euro area of GDP. By using both methods for now
casting and forecasting the GDP, through the estimation of economic indicators plugged in
the bridge equations, the authors have got more accurate forecasts when using nearest
neighbor method. It is also proven the asymptotic normality of the multivariate k-nearest
neighbor regression estimator for dependent time series, providing confidence intervals for
point forecast in time series.
Mirbagheri (2010) has investigated the supply side economic growth of Iran by estimating
GDP growth. In this study, the predictive results of Fuzzy-logic and Neural-Fuzzy methods
are also compared. According to the findings of the study, forecasting by the Neural-Fuzzy
method is recommended.
Ge and Cui (2011) have used process neural network (PNN) into the GDP forecast and
established the forecast model based on PNN by choosing the main factors influencing GDP
and using the dual extraction capacity on time and space cumulative effect of PNN. By means
of comparing and analyzing with traditional neural network forecast model, the result shows
that GDP forecast model which bases on PNN has a better performance.
Liliana and Napitupulu (2010) have also used ANN method in forecasting GDP. In this study,
authors have forecasted GDP for Indonesia and they put forward many advantages and
disadvantages of the method. According to the results, the authors have concluded that the
ANN model has better ability in forecasting the macroeconomic indicators.
3. Methodology
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Artificial neural networks (ANN) may be identified as computing technologies containing
performances and general features of biological neural networks (Deng v.d., 2008:1118).
ANN, developed by imitating the human brain's operating mechanism with the aim of
realizing the basic operations performed by the brain, is a logical computer programming
technique. In a computer media, an algorithm, which attempts to operate as the brain does,
makes a decision, makes a conclusion, arrives at a conclusion on the basis of the existing data
when data are missing, accepts new data input constantly, learns and remembers, is called as
"Artificial Neural Networks".(Kaltakçı, 1997:411-420)
Artificial neural networks consist of many simple processing elements called as nodes or
nerves. Each nerve is attached to the other nerves with weights. These weights indicate the
information used by the network to solve a problem. Nerves are located in each layer and
these layers are interconnected to the other nerves in adjacent layers. A weight gives the
mathematical value of the relative power of information's connections that have been
transferred from one layer to another. Addition function calculates the sum of all the weighted
inputs of a nerve. Activation function is used for the conversion of output in an acceptable
range. (usually 0-1 range). Input layer is identified with the independent variables while
output layer is identified with the dependent variables (Deng v.d., 2008:1118).
Networks having one layer are called single-layered neural networks while networks having
more than one layer are called multilayered neural networks. In a multilayered neural
network, number of neurons in each layer may vary (Hines, 1997; 206). While a singlelayered network consists of an input and output layer, a multilayered network may consist one
or more middle (hidden) layers. As the number of middle layers increases, the ability of
artificial neural network to get statistics from input data also increases (Nygren, 2004).
If an artificial neural network is required to solve a nonlinear problem, a more sophisticated
type of network is needed for these types of problems. Multilayered sensors (MLS) are
network architectures developed for this purpose. This network has a forward network
architecture and a supervised learning method is used (Deng, 2008:1118). MLS consists of an
input layer, one or more middle layers and an output layers. Each layer has one or more
processing elements. All processing elements in a layer is interconnected to all processing
elements in a top layer. The flow of information is forwards and there is no feedback.
Therefore, these types of networks are called as feed-forward neural network model. There is
no information processing in input layer. The number of processing elements in input and
output layers is totally dependent on the practiced problem. The number of middle layers and
the number of processing elements in middle layers are found by trial and error method
(Lippmann, 1987; 24-25).
Each produced output in these types of networks is compared with the target output in each
learning iteration and errors are calculated. By propogating backwards in neural network, this
error is used to correct the weights. This process goes ahead so long as the mean squared error
between target output and output produced by network is minimized (Deng, 2008:1118). For
this reason, this type of network is also called as error propogation model or backpropogation
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network model (Öztemel, 2003:76). These types of networks are illustrated (exemplified) in
Figure 1).
Figure 1: A Multilayered Network Model
Output
Backward
Error Flow
Forward
Activation Flow
Output Layer
…..
Middle Layer
Input
…..
Layer
Input 1
Input 2
Input N
Kaynak: (Hamid ve Iqbal, 2004:1118)
4. Forecasting Gross Domestic Product with ANN
In this study, by the method of artificial neural networks, the gross domestic product has been
estimated on the basis of the calculated data by the method of three-monthly expenditures for
the years of 1998-2010. Data have been drawn from the website of Turkish Statistical
Institute. In the study, 52 pieces of data have been used for each variable covering the threemonthly periods of 13 years. 20% of the data consists of tests and 80% of it consists of
trainings which thus randomly creates 4 different groups.
Gross domestic product consists of a composite of macroeconomic variables such as resident
household consumption, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital
formation, stock exchanges, export and import of goods and services. Gross domestic product
is considered to be dependent variable while household consumption, government final
consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, stock exchanges and export and
import of goods and services and time are considered to be independent variable. Together
with their symbols, the dependent and independent variables used in the study are shown
below.
Gross National Product: GDP
Time: T
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Resident Household Consumption: RHC
Government final consumption expenditure: GFCE
Gross fixed capital formation: GFCF
Stock Exchanges: SE
Goods and Services Expenditures: GSE
Import of Goods and Services: IGS
In the study, as the values of independents are unknown during the desired terms accept the
time variable, GDP ,which is a dependent variable, has been predicted after each independent
variable has been estimated separately depending on the time. Namely, each independent
variable has been considered as dependent variable and they have been predicted depending
on the time variable. Different neuron numbers and hidden layer numbers have been tested to
find the most appropriate network which will be used in the prediction of all variables. The
estimated performance metrics have been evaluated in determining the most appropriate
network. The network structure, of which forecasting measurements are the smallest, is
identified as the most suitable one. The most appropriate network structures used to predict
the all variables are illustrated in Table 2. Yet, as the stock exchanges, taken as independent
variable, have so many sharp rises and falls, each quarter is estimated and combined within
itself. The estimation performance metrics; MSE (Mean Square Error), RMSE (Root mean
square) and MAPE (Mean absolute percentage error), which are commonly used in the
literature, are shown in Formula 1,2 and 3 (Zhang ve Hu, 1998:500, Cho, 2003:328, De
Lurgio, 1998:53).
(y
RMSE
t
yt )2
T
(1)
MAPE
1
T
yt yt
yt
100
(2)
MSE
y
t
yt
2
T
Here;
yt
= The actual observation values,
yt
= Estimated values,
T = Estimated numb
331
(3)
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Table1: The network structures used for estimation of variables
Number of
neurons in
the input
layer
The number
of
intermidiate
layer neurons
Number of
neurons in
the output
layer
R
MAPE
µ ( The
number of
iteration)
RHC
1
3
1
0,97
3,73
3
GFCE
1
4
1
0,96
3,94
5
GFCF
1
3
1
0,81
9,32
10
1
0,83
70,5
20
SE
Independent
variables
2
3
2
SE1
1
SE2
1
3
1
0,86
88,6
20
SE3
1
5
1
0,78
6,6
15
SE4
1
1
0,97
19,5
20
2
3
GSE
1
2
1
0,94
5,20
15
IGS
1
3
1
0,95
6,6
12
GDP
7
3
1
0,99
2,77
2
Estimation performance metrics of Gross domestic product (GDP) are obtained as
MSE=0,000042, RMSE=0,006451 ve MAPE=2,775746%. On the basis of these
measurements, Witt and Witt (2000) classified the estimation models and called those whose
MAPE values are under 10% as the models having " high accuracy" and those whose values
are between 10% nd 20% as the "correct predictions". Similarly, Lewis classified the models
and called those hose MAPE values are less than 10% as "very good", those between 10% and
20% as "good", those between 20% and 50% as "acceptable" and those under 50% as "false
and erroneous" (Aktaran, Çuhadar ve Kayacan, 2005:6).
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Figure2: The optimum network structure to estimate the GDP
Input layer
RHC
Hidden layer
GFCE
Outputlayer
GFCF
SE
GDP
GSE
IGS
T
In this study, Matlab 7.9 computer package program has been used. For
training function 'trainlm' , for learning function 'learngdm', for performance function 'MSE'
and for the transfer function 'tansig' have been selected. In the study, predicted and
actual values have been given in Table 2.
Table 2: Actual and Estimated Values of GDP
333
Actual(1.000TL)
Estimated (1.000TL)
2011 GDP
85.139.293
109.708.230
2011-Q1
26.205.423
26.070.548
2011-Q2
27.904.922
27.911.332
2011-Q3
31.028.948
28.430.643
2011-Q4
---------
27.295.707
2012 GDP
---------
111.233.502
2011-Q1
---------
26.813.588
2011-Q2
---------
28.153.427
2011-Q3
---------
28.500.755
2011-Q4
---------
27.765.733
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
5. CONCLUSIONS
Gross Domestic Product is an important indicator for all economic units including companies,
investors and households. Because it determines their future incomes, returns of their
investments, cost of capital and so on. So economic units make their decisions and set
economic policies depending on future economic conditions determined by what the future
GDP will be. Here the question is which methods can be more suitable and successful in
forecasting GDP. In this paper we applied Artificial Neural Networks method as a prediction
model. Results suggest that forecasting performance of this variable can be improved using
neural network models.
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Forecasting”, Tourism Management, 24: 323-330.
Çuhadar, M. ve Kayacan C. (2005), “Yapay Sinir Ağları Kullanılarak Konaklama
İşletmelerinde Doluluk Oranı Tahmini: Türkiye’deki Konaklama İşletmeleri Üzerine Bir
Deneme”, Anatolia:Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 16(1): 1990-2005.
De LURGIO, A. S. (1998), Forecasting Principles and Applications, Irwin McGrawHill:Singapore.
Deng, Wei-Jaw, Wen-Chin Chen, Wen Pei “Back-propagation neural network based
importance–performance analysis for determining critical service attributes”, Expert Systems
with Applications 34 (2008) 1115–1125.
Ge, L., Cui, B., (2011), “Research on Forecasting GDP Based on Process Neural Network”,
IEEE 2011, 7. International Conference on Natural Computation, 821-824.
Guegan, D., Rakotomarolahy, P., (2010), “Alternative Methods for Forecasting GDP”,
University of Paris, CES Working Papers, 2010.65.
Hamid, Shaikh, A. ve Zahid Iqbal (2004), “Using Neural Networks for Forecasting Volatility
of S&P 500 Index Futures Prices”, Journal of Business Research, 57: 1116-1125.
Hines, J, W., MATLAB, Supplement to Fuzzy and Neural Approaches in Engineering, John
Wiley&Sons, Inc., 1997.
Kaltakci, M, Y., Dere, Y., Yapay Sinir Ağları Uygulamalarının İnşaat Mühendisliğinde
Kullanımı, Prof. Dr. Rifat Yarar Sempozyumu, Editör: Semih S.
Liliana, Napitupulu, T.A., (2010), “Artificial Neural Network Application in Gross Domestic
Product Forecasting- an Indonesian Case”, 2. International Conference on Advances in
Computing, Control and Telecommunication Technologies, IEEE 2010, 89-93.
Lippmann, R., “An Introduction to Computing with Neural Nets”, Vol.4, 1987.
Marcellino, M., (2007), “A Comparison of Time Series Models for Forecasting GDP Growth
and Inflation”, http://www.eui.eu/Personal/Marcellino/1.pdf.
334
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Mirbagheri, M., (2010), “Fuzzy Logic and Neural Network Fuzzy Forecasting of Iran GDP
Growth”, African Journal of Business Management, Vol.4, No.6, 925-929.
Nygren, K., Stock Prediction: A Neural Network Approach, Master Thesis, Royal Institute Of
Technology, KTH, 2004.
Öztemel, E., Yapay Sinir Ağları, Papatya Yayıncılık, İstanbul, 2003.
Schumacher, C., Breitung, J., (2008), “Real-time Forecasting of German GDP based on Large
Factor Model with Monthly and Quarterly Data”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.
24, 386-398.
Tkacz, Greg, Hu, Sarah, (1999), “Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural
Networks”, Bank of Canada Working Papers, 99-3.
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(www.investopedia.com).
The Importance And The Place Of Ombudsman In Law State
Feyzullah Ünal
Dumlupinar University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences
E-mail: feyz_unal@mynet.com
Abstract
In analyzing the ombudsman from the respesct of its historical roots, it is understood that this
institution has been inspired by Islam state system and Otoman state system. The institution
ombudsman has been implemented in countries more than 100 today and overtaken the
mission of protecting the citizens against the maladministration, securing the fundamental
rights and liberty and constituted security for both governing and governed. In this study, it is
offered that the fundamental rights and freedoms should be under the security, all activities of
the government should be under the control of jurisdiction and the significance of this
institution sould be awared in realizing the legal governance.
Keywords: Ombudsman, law state, fundamental rights and freedoms, justice, control and
judicial control.
335
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Title
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Using Artificial Neural Networks To Forecast Gdp For Turkey
Author
Author
Karaatli, Meltem
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is a system resembling biological neural systems and uses working principles of human brain as a base. ANN can be applied in various fields for the purposes of forecasting, classification, optimization, data binding and so on. ANN has been frequently used in financial applications in recent years. In this study, ANN is used in forecasting Gross Domestic Product of Turkey. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. GDP can be thought as the size of an economy and it is the foremost important measure of macroeconomic performance of a country, a country’s health and standard of living. Therefore, expectations about future GDP can be the primary determinant of investments, employment, wages, profits and even stock market activities. With respect to its economic significance mentioned above, the purpose of this study is to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Turkey and to test the ability of ANN Method in forecasting GDP. Keywords: Importance of Gross Domestic Product, Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/9edeeaf430df68abae993679141b43df.pdf
15bb98e5a755a17e23f5656aff2fa2e1
PDF Text
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3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Erkoyuncu, I., (1995). Fisheries biology and population dynamics. Ondokuz Mayıs
University, Faculty of Fisheries, Sinop, Turkey, pp. 265 (in Turkish).
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Gonçalves, J.M.S., Bentes, L., Lino, P.G., Ribeiro, J., & Canaroo, A.V.M., (1997). Weightlength relationships for selected fish species of the small-scale demersal fisheries of the south
and south and southwest coast of Portugal. Fish. Res., 30(3), 253-256.
Koutrakis, E.T., & Tsikliras, A.C., (2003). Length-weight relationships of fishes from three
northern Aegean estuarine systems (Greece). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 19, 258-260.
Lalèyè, P.A., (2006). Length-weight and length-length relationships of fshes from the Ouémé
River in Bénin(West Africa). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 22, 330-333.
Moutopoulos, D.K., & Stergiou, K.I., (2002). Length-weight and length-length relationships
of fish species of the Aegean Sea (Greece). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 18(3), 200-203.
Pauly, D., (1993). Fishbyte section editorial. Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly, 16, pp. 26.
Petrakis, G., & Stergiou, K.I., (1995). Weight-length relationships for 33 fish species in Greek
waters. Fish. Res. 21, 465-469.
Wootton, R.J., (1990) Ecology of teleost fishes. Chapman and Hall, London.
Could government legalize illegal settlement by improving their energy efficiency?
Janjusevic Jelena, Begovic Radojevic Milica,
UNDP, Podgorica; Montenegro
Abstract
In recent months we are faced with serious budget problems in Montenegro, the solution of
which, among other things is seen in reducing the number of employees in state
administration. On the other hand, the costs of living are significantly above the disposable
budget of households. Particular problem is the high cost of electricity, which recently
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
resulted in the street protests of discontented citizens. On one hand we have a government that
alerts the lack of electricity, and on the other hand we have citizens that may hardly cover
these costs. In addition, Montenegro is dealing with a double-challenge of inefficient space
use (country features over 100,000 illegal homes, if distributed evenly implying that every
other family lives in an illegal home) and inefficient energy use (Montenegro needs on
average 8.5 times more energy per unit produced than an average EU country).
1.How to solve a problem and please both sides? Is that feasible at all?
UNDP office in Montenegro came up with the idea to link solving the big problems in
Montenegro, such as the problem of illegal construction, with increasing the level of energy
efficiency in households, businesses and other facilities. Namely, UNDP proposes an
integrated policy solution to the double-challenge in providing energy efficiency measures to
incentivize households to legalize their homes. The idea and research that was recently
conducted show how the legalization of illegal buildings by the introduction of mandatory
energy efficiency measures in them, may at the same time result in the increase of revenue to
the central and local budgets, reduction of negative impact on the environment, increase of
employment, engagement of the economy, reduction of electricity consumption and thereby to
reduce the need to import electricity, and ultimately to contribute to the welfare of the
population.
Our research (energy audits) conducted on 30 illegal houses in three pilot municipalities
showed that significant savings in energy consumption could be realized (up to 60%). Based
on these results, we propose an approach to formalizing informal settlements in Montenegro
through implementing an energy efficiency incentive system for the households. The scheme
is broken down into 2 steps: (1) a household receives a loan to improve energy efficiency. On
average for a 100m2 household, €3,800 loan (with 4.5% interest rate) results in 59% of
energy savings or €630 per year at the current energy prices; (2) a household enters into a
contractual agreement with the Government/municipality to use the savings from energy
efficiency to pay off the low-interest loan it received for the retrofit and the formalization
cost.
The benefit for the household is dual- a title to the house and improved energy
efficiency/resulting financial savings. The benefit for the municipality/Government is the
steady supply of funding for the property tax. The benefit for the private sector is the increase
in demand for retrofits and upgrading of the infrastructure that services informal settlements.
Keywords: energy efficiency, sustainable development, illegal construction, energy audits,
retrofitting
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2.INTRODUCTION
The world is experiencing three inter-related crises at the moment. One regards the rising
trend of resource prices. The resource price index in the 20th century fell by 50% even
though the population quadrupled, economic output rose 4 times, and demand for fossil fuels
and water increased by 16 and 9 percent respectively. The first decade of 21st century
reversed this trend, and relative to the beginning of 20th century in 2010 the index rose by
147%1. This is a result of a combination of factors: rising demand and population, decreasing
sources of supply, volatility of supply (most fossil fuel deposits are located in conflict prone
locations such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela). If we continue on this path, by 2050 we
would need three times more resources and this is simply no longer an option, which brings us
to the second crises.
This crisis regards the rising inequality globally within countries. During the last several
decades, millions of people around the world have been lifted out of poverty. In Central and
Eastern Europe, some 90 million people or 18% of its population moved out of poverty since
1999. Despite this, 30% of the region’s population is still considered poor or vulnerable, with
the number rising by 5 million for each 1% of decline in GDP2. The recent ILO report echoes
this in noting that the ‘society is becoming increasingly anxious about the lack of decent jobs.
The findings show that Social Unrest Index in 2011 rose in 57 out of 106 countries, as more
people were pushed out of labor market, predominantly impacting youth and women. So
what does this mean for societies across the world? The recent research shows that more
unequal societies feature far more social problems including high rates of suicide, obesity,
teenage pregnancy, imprisonment, and low levels of literacy, trust, life expectancy3. In short,
the economic growth does not yield human development returns in those high developed
countries that features high levels of inequality and that subsequently invest the bulk of their
public resources into prisons, policy, and defence and health services to deal with the growing
amount of social problems.
Finally and linked with the other two crises, the world is at a tipping point in regard to the loss
of vital ecosystem services and extreme events- both connected to the changing climate.
Some 60% of ecosystem services that underpin our economies and life on earth have been
degraded, some beyond the point of return. Recently published research in the Journal of
Nature that for the first time compared effects of biodiversity loss to other human-caused
environmental changes analyzed 12 peer-reviewed articles and concluded that reduced
biodiversity affects ecosystems at levels comparable to those of pollution and global
1 McKinsey’s ‘Resource Revolution’ The report last accessed on May 4th 2012.
http://www.mckinsey.com/Features/Resource_revolution
2 This World Bank study quoted in ‘The Economic and Financial Crisis in CEE and CIS: Gender
Perspectives and Policy Choices’ last accessed on May 4th 2012 at:
http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_598a.pdf
3 Richard Wilkinson, Kate Pickett ‘The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Society Almost Always Do Better’
Allen Lane, 2009
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warming4. In layman terms, this means that environment’s ability to provide clean water,
food and stable climate is seriously undermining the quality of life and human development
globally. In terms of disasters, in November last year IPCC published first scientific proof
that the changing climate results in an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events5. Our region experienced some $70 billion disaster-related losses during the last two
decades6.
The three crises are related, mutually reinforcing one another and creating a vicious cycle that
impacts all segments of sustainable human development- economic competitiveness, social
inclusion and environment. Any viable solution must match the complexity of the crises,
addressing them in an integrated manner that will unleash economic growth and job creation,
while at the same time conserving the biodiversity and maintaining the balanced environment.
This paper will present one such integrated solution that aims to resolve the multi-dimensional
development challenge of informal housing (low economic empowerment, rising pressure on
environment, high exposure to extreme events, inefficient resource use, low quality of life). It
will demonstrate how UNDP plans to utilize main principles of green economy to provide
economic empowerment to the citizens in Montenegro.
3.What is a Green Economy?
UNEP defines a green economy as one that results in improved human well-being and social
equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. In its
simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource
efficient and socially inclusive. In a green economy, growth in income and employment
should be driven by public and private investments that reduce carbon emissions and
pollution, enhance energy and resource efficiency, and prevent the loss of biodiversity and
ecosystem services. These investments need to be catalyzed and supported by targeted public
expenditure, policy reforms and regulation changes.7
The development path should maintain, enhance and, where necessary, rebuild natural capital
as a critical economic asset and as a source of public benefits, especially for poor people
whose livelihoods and security depend on nature.
4 http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/123462-biodiversity-loss-is-as-damaging-as-climatechange-and-pollution.html
5 The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation, PDF presentation last accessed on May 4th 2012
http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_slide_deck.pdf
6 From Transition to Transformation: Sustainable and Inclusive Development in Europe and Central
Asia, report last accessed on May 4th 2012 at
http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/publications/oes/RIO_20_Web_Interactif.pdf
7 UNEP, Towards a Green Economy, Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication,
2011
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It is very important to understand that the concept of a “green economy” does not replace
sustainable development. However, there is a growing recognition that achieving
sustainability rests almost entirely on getting the economy right.
Perhaps the most widespread myth is that there is an inescapable trade-off between
environmental sustainability and economic progress. There is now substantial evidence that
the “greening” of economies neither inhibits wealth creation nor employment opportunities,
and that there are many green sectors which show significant opportunities for investment and
related growth in wealth and jobs.
Also, many theorists and practitioners believe that green economy is a luxury only wealthy
countries can afford, or worse, a developed-world imposition to restrain development and
perpetuate poverty in developing countries. Contrary to this perception, there are numbered
examples of greening transitions taking place in various sectors in the developing world,
which deserve to be emulated and replicated elsewhere.
The last two years have seen the idea of a “green economy” float out of its specialist moorings
in environmental economics and into the mainstream of policy discourse. It is found
increasingly in the words of heads of state and finance ministers, in the text of G20
communiqués, and discussed in the context of sustainable development and poverty
eradication.
Over the last quarter of a century, the world economy has quadrupled, benefiting hundreds of
millions of people. In contrast, however, 60% of the world’s major ecosystem goods and
services that underpin livelihoods have been degraded or used unsustainably. Indeed, this is
because the economic growth of recent decades has been accomplished mainly through
drawing down natural resources, without allowing stocks to generate, and through allowing
widespread ecosystem degradation and loss.
Meanwhile, for the first time in history, more than half of the world population lives in urban
areas. Cities now account for 75% of energy consumption and 75% of carbon emissions.
Rising and related problems of congestion, pollution, and poorly provisioned services affect
the productivity and health of all, but fall particularly hard on the urban poor. With
approximately 50% of the global population now living in emerging economies that are
rapidly urbanizing and will experience rising income and purchasing power over the next
years – and a tremendous expansion in urban infrastructure – the need for smart city planning
is paramount.
4.Energy efficiency
People have always used energy to do work for them. Thousands of years ago, early humans
burned wood to provide light, heat their living spaces, and cook their food. Later, people used
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the wind to move their boats from place to place. A hundred years ago, people began using
falling water to make electricity.
Today, people use more energy than ever from a variety of sources for a multitude of tasks
and our lives are undoubtedly better for it. Our homes are comfortable and full of useful and
entertaining electrical devices. We communicate instantaneously in many ways. We live
longer, healthier lives. We travel the world, or at least see it on television and the internet.
In 1973, when Americans faced their first oil price shock, people didn’t know how the
country would react. How would Americans adjust to skyrocketing energy prices? How
would manufacturers and industries respond? We didn’t know the answers.
Now we know that Americans tend to use less energy when energy when energy prices are
high. We have the statistics to prove it. When energy prices increased sharply in the early
1970s, energy use dropped, creating a gap between actual energy use and how much the
experts had thought Americans would be using. The same thing happened when energy prices
shot up again in 1979, 1980, and 2008—people used less energy. When prices started to drop,
energy use began to increase.
In 2009, the United States used 27 percent more energy than it did in the 1970s. That might
sound like a lot, but the population increased by over 43 percent and the nation’s gross
domestic product (the total value of all the goods and services produced by a nation in one
year) was 2.6 times that of the 1970s.
If every person in the United States today consumed energy at the rate we did in the 1970s,
we would be using much more energy than we are - perhaps as much as double the amount.
Energy efficiency technologies have made a huge impact on overall consumption since the
energy crisis of 1973.
Mankind is facing one of the greatest challenges in its history: developing in order to “meet
the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their needs”8. Increasing demands for natural resources, weakening of ecosystems,
global warming and soaring population growth are just a few of the global issues confronting
us. Since the end of the 1960s there have been more and more global initiatives to reduce
social and ecological imbalances. The movement is now speeding up: those involved are
becoming aware of the role they can play within their sphere of influence and of the
interdependence between the various aspects of sustainable development.
Improving energy efficiency is mostly connected with buildings, both residential and
business, changes and the main challenge now is to design, build and renovate buildings to
8 Our Common Future, Brundtland Report, 1987
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reduce their environmental impact and create areas that are healthy and comfortable for the
occupants.
Throughout their life cycle, buildings consume natural resources, generate waste and emit
large amounts of CO2, contributing significantly to global warming. A large proportion of the
world's population, particularly in the developed countries, spends 90% of its time indoors
(source: OECD). In this context, questions of hygiene standards inside buildings and the
comfort of occupants are also central issues in the debate.
At building level, energy efficiency covers all the methods used to reduce the energy used for
a given service (heating, lighting, operating machines, etc.). Two types of energy efficiency
are generally taken into consideration:
Energy efficiency associated with the framework This corresponds to the structural properties
of the building that will reduce energy requirements (and in particular heating and lighting).
This category includes: optimized insulation, double glazing, treatment of heat bridges,
management of openings (doors and windows) and coverings (blinds and shutters).
Energy efficiency from high-performance equipment and as a result of the management of
this equipment. High-performance equipment is that providing the best efficiency.
Equipment management is used to adapt the level and duration of the provision of energy to
requirements. It corresponds to the installation of products and systems that will regulate and
automate energy consumption in the building in order to avoid unnecessary consumption.
Energy efficiency retrofits provide an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
generate economic activity, save billions in energy costs, and ensure the long-term viability of
affordable housing. However, there is insufficient data on how much energy these upgrades
actually save, and therefore little data on what the return on investment would be for lenders.
Without this data, it is very difficult to secure upfront capital investments in retrofits,
inhibiting this sector’s capacity to scale.
5.Montenegro and legalization problem
In the past decade, Montenegro has witnessed rapid urbanization fuelled by foreign direct
investment on the Adriatic coast and in mountain resorts. This growth, which has significantly
increased the GDP of the country for several years has, in parallel, caused negative effects
such as urban sprawl in previously natural landscapes along the coast and around the capital
Podgorica, resulting in large numbers of informally built constructions (that is without a
construction permit), both commercial and residential, that have very low energy efficiency
characteristics, resulting in an overall increase in CO2 emissions due to rising energy demand
in buildings. According to one estimate, there are approximately 100,000 such informal
constructions, though there are no clear statistics. Approximately 62% of the population of
Montenegro lives in urban areas and the quality of their life is under pressure from urban
development problems. Uncontrolled urbanization, especially in the central area (around
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Podgorica and other cities) and the coastal areas (seaside tourist development), is having
negative impacts, such as overcrowded settlements and inaccessibility to infrastructure.
Informal constructions in Montenegro generally fall under three broad categories:
A building constructed on a parcel of land that legally belongs to the owner. The owner
obtained the necessary ‘construction permit’ but did not secure the ‘use permit’ from the
municipal authorities, which is required by law to ensure that the housing unit was built
according to specifications approved in the ‘construction permit’. Owners are required to pay
specified municipal fees to obtain the ‘use permit’.
A building constructed on own land by the owner of the land, but without both the
‘construction permit’ and the ‘use permit’.
A building constructed on state or municipal land without the express consent of the owner
and without the necessary ‘construction or ‘use permit’.
Nearly all Montenegrin households (>99%) are connected to the electricity grid and metered.
Based on the latest available data, average monthly electricity consumption in Montenegro in
2001 was 367 kWh per household. This makes that average monthly bill for electricity per
household amounts cca 100 euro. According to the estimation of Ministry of Economy of
Montenegro 80% of the electricity in the household is used for the heating. Most homes are
heated through an electric radiator system, an electric thermal accumulator or an individual
heating system. Wood is one of the most popular heating sources in individual houses in
Montenegro, especially in the North, but almost absent in the South and in apartment
buildings.
Assuming that the 100,000 informal constructions have the same average energy consumption
profile as regular houses (a highly conservative assumption given their generally sub-standard
workmanship and hence low EE), the informal housing sector is estimated to account for over
one-quarter of Montenegro’s residential energy consumption and 7% of the country’s energybased GHG emissions. The irregular sector is also characterised by relatively high energy
poverty: systematic data are scarce but some observations suggest that up to 40% of people
living in the irregular housing sector do not have access to sufficient energy services to ensure
a healthy lifestyle for themselves and their families.
Buildings constructed without building permits in most cases have not been subject to the
process of verification of application of standards, neither in the course of design
development nor during performance of works, particularly from the aspect of seismic risk.
Existence of a large number of informal buildings, primarily residential facilities, highlights
the urgent need for organized approach to resolving the problem of regularization of such
buildings and verifying achieved level of their static and seismic protection.
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The Government of Montenegro has adopted a National Formalisation Program (NFP) and
Action Plan to regularize the vast stock of informal individual housing. The new
Regularization Law will mandate all owners of illegal houses to undergo mandatory building
registration process; it will impose penalties (up to building demolition) for those property
owners who fail to comply with the requirements. The Law and bylaws will also stipulate the
administrative procedures and financial costs associated with legalization.
6.UNDP approach to the legalization problem
National Formalization Program, will result in new policies, regulation and significant
investment to transform illegal housing stock into regularized and law-compliant buildings.
However, if implemented as designed, NFP will not bring in energy efficiency improvements
in individual houses, which are now characterized by poor thermal performance, high energy
use and offer major opportunities for cost-effective GHG emission reduction. In order to
address this problem, UNDP design the National Formalization Program in such manner that
it would incorporate mandatory requirements and financial support package for energy
efficiency improvements as outlined in the following section.
The formalisation of Montenegro’s large informal buildings sector represents a unique
opportunity to not only insert EE considerations into regulation of this building stock (for the
first time ever), but also to integrate informal neighbourhoods and settlements into municipal
governments’ spatial planning in order to address urban-system GHG mitigation opportunities
in a ‘joined up’ manner.
7.UNDP research in energy efficiency of the illegal houses
In the beginning of 2011 Ministry of Sustainable Development and Tourism of Montenegro
and UNDP agreed on join implementation of three new pilot projects which deal with
problem of transformation of informal settlements to formal. This is related to three
municipalities: Zabljak, Bijelo Polje and Bar.
Projects activities resulted in:
identifying alternative solutions for formalization of informal settlements
giving initial study on the energy efficiency characteristics of the informal building sector in
Montenegro and an assessment of the economic mitigation potential of the sector, with
particular focus on the Government’s Formalization Programme and how the Programme can
be harnessed to maximize mitigation outcomes – in terms of the buildings themselves and
also how they can be best integrated into broader urban planning.
proposing different economical scenarios for formalization process
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encouraging housing opportunity for people of low and moderate income by creative, flexible,
and innovative approach to resolving this issue
Purpose of the energy audits was to determine a baseline for consumption and potential
savings giving the most basic renovation/retrofit measures. Every energy audit consisted of
basic information about the existing object, its current use, dimensions, number of inhabitants,
heating periods during the day and the whole year, local climate characteristics etc. Data on
average yearly consumption of electricity and consumption of water was collected from
Public Utility Companies. This was provided with assistance of municipal officials9.
Figure 1: The appearance of used software
Energy audit team used the following measuring equipment during the inspection of the
buildings :Thermal Imager-3 Testo880 PROSet; Data loggers for measuring temperature and
humidity Testo 175 and Testo 635-2 Luksmetar.
9 Calculation of building energy performance was performed using: ENSI (Energy Savings
International AS) "ENSI EAB CG 8.1". The algorithm for calculation in the current version of the Key
Number software relies mainly on the EN ISO 13790:2004 standard. Economic calculation is done in
the "ENSI Profitability Software - Version 7.0".
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Figure 2: Results of thermal camera imaging (one of the audited buildings in Bijelo Polje)
After revision of all provided audits, a general conclusion regarding possibilities for EE
retrofitting in informal settlements is that, on average, with €3,800 investment in retrofits the
annual savings are €700 (payoff in less than 6 years), and this is in accordance with current
energy prices (€ 0.7/kWh as opposed to € 0.17 kWh which is average within liberalized
energy market in Europe).
More detailed average results are, as follows:
Average building (heated) area
Average electricity bill [€/god]
(for 2009/2010/2011)
Baseline
(kWh/m2 year)
Baseline
(kWh/year)
After EE retrofit measures
(kWh/m2year)
After EE retrofit measures
(kWh/year)
Calculated savings
(kWh/m2year)
Lowering of CO2 emission
(tons/year)
142
116.80
1240.32
468.81
52771.05
169.74
20122.85
303.49
0.82
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Assessment of the investment in EE retrofit
measures
4458.20
[€]
Net savings
[€/year]
Return on investment [year]
736.15
5.60
Savings in delivered energy / wooden logs
32945.80
(kWh/ year)
Savings in delivered energy / electrical energy
(kWh/ year)
574.65
The most cost effective and most often basic EE measures that have been suggested are:
appropriate isolation of external walls
replacement of windows/doors
isolation of roofs
EE audits also suggested implementation of additional measures, such as installation of
central heating, which will not significantly improve EE performance, but will in general raise
a living comfort for the inhabitants. These measures are relatively expensive, and with longer
return on investment, but they are also included in narrative part of audits, in order to be
considered by the owners as possibility for additional improvement of living conditions.
General conclusion is that energy efficiency measures can be used as a tool for encouraging
owners of the informal object to apply for legalization. Calculation showed that that each
household that apply for formalization will have almost the same cost as it pay regularly for
electricity today, but now this cost covers electricity bill, but also retrofitting and
formalization. This means that with the same amount of financial resources, they will have
legal object, energy efficient and safer house.
Energy efficiency measures can be used as a tool for encouraging owners of the informal
object to apply for legalization. The main idea is to increase number of applicants, and on the
other side to provide solution that would be in line with principles of sustainable development
and status of Montenegro as ecological state.
Below is explained one of possible the scenarios for formalization using energy efficiency
measures as incentive, for average residential building of 100m2.
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EE measure as incentives – calculation:
(Example – residential house of 100m2, with average monthly energy bill – 100 euros.)
Size of
Houshold
Cost
for Saving
energy
per
month (euro)
Formalization
(50e per m2)
100
90
5000 €
59%
cost Retrofitting
cost(interest
rate 4.5% on investment
3800eur)
5760
Scenario after retrofitting
(costs)
Electricity bill Monthly
Monthly
Total
(euro)
formalization
retrofit cost, 15
cost, 20 yr yr period
period
Monthly
36.9
20.9
32
89.9
The idea is to use possibility of getting soft loan with no or very low interest rate, with 20
years period for repayment that will be used for retrofitting the object. The main condition for
loan is IF household apply for formalization process.
This calculation shows that each household that apply for formalization will have almost the
same cost as it pays regularly for electricity today, but now this cost covers electricity bill,
but also retrofitting and formalization. This means that with same amount of financial
resources, they will have legal object, energy efficient and safer house.
Revenue from formalization to government
Monthly
Yearly
After 20 years
2,083,333.33€
25,000,000€
500,000,000€
Through identifying alternative solutions for formalization of informal settlements and
integration of sustainable development principles into planning process, this project will
contribute to establishment of the link between economic growth, poverty reduction and
environmental sustainability.
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8. CONCLUSION
The paper demonstrates potentials for using energy efficiency as an incentive for
formalization of illegal households. Building on the wealth of research on decision making
and behavioral economics, the solution features a revenue-neutral option that addresses dual
challenges from the consumers’ perspectives (households: inefficient use of energy and illegal
house) and dual challenge from the providers’ perspective (Government: low real estate tax
collection and low investment in infrastructure).
This solution has never been tested before. It will require a multidimensional approach to
systemic level change (new regulation and policy development), institutional level change
(establishing novel links between the municipal and national level, designing novel processes
for financial management) and individual level (capacity building, behavioral change). On
the positive note, regardless of its success, this proposal is likely to yield important lessons on
the potential for manipulating incentives for green economy.
Implications for future research include consideration of incentives related to clean energy
production (e.g. solar and wind power) and sustainable urban development (e.g.
municipality’s capacity to manage incoming funding for a greener and sustainable
urbanization).
LITERATURE
„More Urban—Less Poor, Fighting poverty in an urban world“, Göran Tannerfeldt and Per
Ljung, August 2006
„Trade and Development Report, UNCTAD, 2011,
“Trends and Progress in Housing reforms in South Eastern Europe, Sasha Tsenkova, CEB,
October 2005
„Towards a Green Economy, Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty
Eradication“, UNEP, 2011
“Energy Efficiency: Engine of Economic Growth”, Jamie Howland & Derek Murrow, Lisa
Petraglia & Tyler Comings, Economic Development Research Group, Inc, October 2009
“Our Common Future”, Brundtland Report, 1987
“Why More Equal Society Almost Always do Better’ Richard Wilkinson, Kate Pickett ‘The
Spirit Level: Allen Lane, 2009
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“From Transition to Transformation: Sustainable and Inclusive Development in Europe and
Central Asia”, report, 2011
Web:
http://www.mckinsey.com/Features/Resource_revolution
http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/123462-biodiversity-loss-is-as-damaging-asclimate-change-and-pollution.html
http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_598a.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_slide_deck.pdf
http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/publications/oes/RIO_20_Web_Interactif.pdf
www.undp.org.me
www.mek.gov.me
www.energetska-efikasnost.me
Situation Of The Dikili Gulf Fishes For Sustainable Fisheries
Mehmet İkiz1, Hatice Koç Torcu 2, Fatih Güleç1
1- Ege Üniversitesi, Su Ürünleri Fakültesi, 35080 İzmir
2- Balikesir University, Faculty of Science and Arts, Balikesir-Turkey
E-mails: mikiz@mynet.com, htorcukoc@hotmail.com, mc305@live.com
Abstract
Conservation fish stocks in the aquatic ecosystem is important for sustainable fish production.
Continuation of the fish species generations in a habitat is affected by environmental
conditions and hunting pressure. For the sustainability of the reproductive abilities of fishes, it
is essential to know interactions with the the other species that live in habitat. In this way the
production models, that encourage the fish to grow in its natural habitat, can be developed. In
this study, the fish species that live in Dikili Bay of Izmir City and their economic features
were investigated. Fish species that live in Dikili Bay were examined systematically and
biologically; also identification keys of the species were formed. Morphometric and meristic
characters of obtained species were identified. In the examination, 70 species belonging to 39
families were identified. 9 species of these belong to chondrichythyes and 61 to osteichtyes.
31 of these species are economically important species and are hunted. 2 of them (Sea bream
and sea bass) are farmed in Turkey, also. As a result of inadequate protection measures and
mindless hunting, it was observed 31 economically important and identified species, that live
146
�
Dublin Core
The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/.
Extent
The size or duration of the resource.
1238
Title
A name given to the resource
Could government legalize illegal settlement by improving their energy efficiency?
Author
Author
Janjusevic, Jelena
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
In recent months we are faced with serious budget problems in Montenegro, the solution of which, among other things is seen in reducing the number of employees in state administration. On the other hand, the costs of living are significantly above the disposable budget of households. Particular problem is the high cost of electricity, which recently resulted in the street protests of discontented citizens. On one hand we have a government that alerts the lack of electricity, and on the other hand we have citizens that may hardly cover these costs. In addition, Montenegro is dealing with a double-challenge of inefficient space use (country features over 100,000 illegal homes, if distributed evenly implying that every other family lives in an illegal home) and inefficient energy use (Montenegro needs on average 8.5 times more energy per unit produced than an average EU country).
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
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3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Efficiency and Impact of Economic Sanctions
Ilham Redzic
International University of Sarajevo
Faculty of Business and Administration, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E- mail: redzic_ilham@hotmail.com
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine economic sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and
to give judgment to their efficiency and impact. Since WWI economic sanctions have been
used as a tool for preventing conflicts and signaling instrument of foreign policy. Their
efficiency and impact have been the main topics for many discussions. Since the War in
Yugoslavia in 1991, economic sanctions gained on their importance and usage. Two classical
examples of economic sanctions will be discussed in this paper: War in Yugoslavia and
sanctions against Iran. Economic sanctions appear to be unsuccessful in most cases and their
usual victims are innocent inhabitants.
Keywords: Economic sanctions, efficiency of economic sanctions, Yugoslavia, Iran.
1.INTRODUCTION
Since the beginning of human kind, people and nations have been fighting among themselves.
Wars have become part of daily life because of reasons such as pretensions of some countries
for territory of other countries, their economic and cultural wealth etc; or even to impose their
own beliefs on others. One of the means used in achieving those goals are economic
sanctions. Although, Economic Sanctions are ideated to be means for preventing conflicts,
they often do not serve the purpose.
This paper will provide basic information about economic sanctions as well as their analysis
and effectiveness, their importance in the foreign policy of countries, and also their role in
war and pre-war preparations. The main idea of this paper is that economic sanctions are
usually not effective and they almost always harm civilians.
The structure of the paper is as follows: Section 2 is the literature review. In Section 3,
economic sanctions will be discussed as a phenomenon. Answers for many questions
regarding economic sanctions and their role as foreign policy tool can be found in this part.
Section 4 provides information about economic sanctions imposed on Serbia during 1990s
and current sanctions against Iran. Finally, Section 5 concludes.
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2.Literature review
Radcliffe (2010) states that economic sanctions are penalties imposed against another country
in order to force that country to change its policies, by inflicting economic losses. Debating on
efficiency of economic sanctions, Radcliffe (2010) says that success of sanctions depends on
how many parties are involved in imposing sanctions. He states that bilateral sanctions are
more effective than those imposed unilaterally (the USA sanctions are often unilateral), but
overall success of economic sanctions is very low. As he says, sanctions usually affect
ordinary people without achieving targeted goal.
Lektzian and Souva (2007) claim that effects of economic sanctions are “conditional”
meaning that economic sanctions imposed on non-democratic society are less effective than
those imposed on democratic society. They also argue that economic sanctions that are
imposed on poor countries by powerful states are often effective, due to the fact that poor
countries are highly dependent on economic aid from strong economies.
Economic sanctions are not efficient and they are often imposed to show that sender country
(country which sends sanctions) does not agree with political situation in receiving country
(country that receives sanctions). Sometimes, country imposes unilateral sanctions when they
are helpless in exercising their influence upon others, says Wallensteen (1968). Andreas
(2005) states that economic sanctions should be used, but only those which will not have
criminalizing effects, such as smuggling of banned goods and other illegal acts. For him,
targeted sanctions such as freezing foreign assets of leaders, and diplomatic embargo are
likely to have very few criminalizing consequences, and are therefore better for achieving the
goal.
Davis and Engerman (2003) argue that increased usage of economic sanctions is good
because it is always better to make changes in the world through peaceful acts than through
military acts. This reason is very strong, but Davis and Engerman (2003) also conclude that
states with higher economic power and better political situation are able to impose more
effective sanctions than poor countries. This implies that economic sanctions always serve
only the rich countries and they are anti-poor oriented.
On the other hand, some authors argue that economic sanctions are successful. In their
research, these authors ignore sanctions whose goal is only to send signals. According to
Hufbauer, Jeffrey and Elliot (2008) those sanctions should not be evaluated because they do
not have clear definition and clear target. They are imposed only as opinion of one country
towards policy of others. Roger (1996) advocates economic sanctions more than others. She
argues that if the sanctions are to be successful, it is important that imposer is very familiar
with the roots of wars, be better predictor of those conflicts, and at the end, is able to impose
proper sanctions.
Henderson (1998) agrees with authors who think that economic sanctions harm only innocent
and ordinary inhabitants of countries. It is natural that heads of the states affected by sanctions
do not share pain with their vassals. Knowing this, we can say that economic sanctions are
really inefficient. They affect those people that are not real target of economic sanctions. But
imposer countries do not care about innocent people. They are only concerned with achieving
their goals, even though their experience tells them differently – the sanctions will not be
efficient.
Rarick (2007) agrees with most authors when it comes to ineffectiveness, and even concludes
that economic sanctions are wrong tools of foreign affairs. He states that even though many
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powerful countries know sanctions odds for achieving goals are small, they still use them
whenever they can.
One of the most cited authors regarding this topic is Robert Pape. Robe (1997) indicates that
only in 5% of all cases economic sanctions could be recognized as the reasons for political
changes. Blanchard and Ripsman (2000) claim that economic sanctions’ effects are
“unquestionably negative” compared to expectations of those who impose them. They also
say that neither economic sanctions nor the threat of imposing economic sanctions can bring
true changes in political sense of one country.
3.Economic Sanctions
3.1.What are the Economic Sanctions?
Economic sanctions are tools for international policy, tools for showing countries’ opinions
regarding some situations and instruments for international political changes. They also serve
as a tool for punishing countries that are violating human rights of their inhabitants, or they
represent some source of threat to the rest of the world. Their most important function is
probably to work on preventing all of the sources of human conflicts. Elliot, Hufbauer and
Oegg (2008) note that economic sanctions have three main functions: to punish, to prevent,
and to make changes in political sense. Economic sanctions as punishments are used very
often; sometimes as a punishment for disordering international law and order; sometimes as
punishment for country’s oppression and disrespecting of human rights. Second function, as
crucial function, is to deter conflicts between countries (ex countries of ex Yugoslavia) and
civil wars. In order to prevent high costs of war and to avoid all other costs that are sometimes
more important than human lives, economic sanctions are used as very powerful tools for
resolving disputes.
By forbidding international aid or putting embargo on imports of weapon, imposers could
affect (slow down) further progress of the conflicts. Third function is used frequently
nowadays. This function of economic sanctions is used in order to influence political changes
in some countries (Libya, Syria, etc), or to decrease security threat from other countries (Iran,
North Korea). By imposing sanctions, powerful countries (imposer) can manifest their
disagreement regarding political situation in the country that receives sanction. Usage of
economic sanctions is in constant trend of enlargement. It is obvious that economic sanctions
are becoming one of the main international policy tools. The United States of America is the
leading country in imposing economic sanctions and its portion of all sanctions imposed in
the world since WWII is very large.
Table 1: Trends in Use of Economic sanctions
Number of new cases of economic sanctions imposed until 1999.
Period
1914-1949
1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 19901999
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Type
Non-U.S.
11
6
7
9
7
18
Other &
4
4
4
3
8
30
4
3
10
26
13
14
19
13
21
38
28
62
U.S.
Unilateral
U.S.
Total
Source: Institute for International economics and center for global development, Washington,
2006
Table 1 shows the increase in usage of economic sanctions since WWI until the last year of
the 20th century. It also shows portions of Non-USA sanctions, bilateral sanctions of the USA
and other countries, and unilateral sanctions imposed by the USA. During the 1970s,
unilateral sanctions imposed by the USA increased a lot due to Cold War era. It can be
concluded that usage of all types of Economic sanctions boosted during the 1990s.
Figure 1 shows the ongoing economic sanction trends and comparison of the USA sanctions
and all other sanctions in the world. It can be concluded that increase in usage of economic
sanctions as foreign policy tool, by the USA, is much higher than usage of all other countries
in the world.
Figure 1.
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Trends in ongoing Economic sanctions
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Source: Institute for International economics and center for global development, Washington,
2006
3.2.Efficiency of economic sanctions
Since the emergence of economic sanctions there is a debate about their efficiency. Although
there are some people who argue that economic sanctions are efficient in reaching their goals
as foreign policy tool, majority concludes that economic sanctions are mostly inefficient. If
that is so, why are they still in use and why they stayed first option in resolving the
international disputes? All sanctions that are imposed have some goals (to send signal; to
punish, etc.) and if those goals are reached, we can say that economic sanctions are
successful. Based on empirical evidence, it can be concluded that economic sanctions are
generally inefficient.
To determine the real success of sanctions it is important to look at their real objective and
purposes. It is natural to expect inefficient sanctions, if objectives are mixed or too complex.
Sometimes, sanctions are meant to be inefficient and their only goal is to declare opinion or to
send a signal. Although some scholars see much more success in imposition of sanctions than
others, economic sanctions often end with military operation within target country. For
example, Hufbauer et al. (1985) argue that economic sanctions show success in 34% of all
examined cases, from 1914 until 1990.
Table 2: HSE Research on Economic sanctions cases
Source: Pape (1998)
According to Table 2, 41 case of all considered in HSE research was successful, while 79
were failures. Highest success was recorded when goal was to destabilize country, which is
natural because it is easy to destabilize one country using Economic sanctions as weapon.
In his response to this result, Robert Pape (1998) concludes that much of these “successful”
cases ended in war. In his examination of these cases he came to result in which only 5% of
all cases could be called successful. Pape (1998) considered 8 cases in which economic
sanctions influenced loss in the GNP of one country more than 4.6%, and he called them
“High Punishment and Sanction Outcomes”.
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Table 3: Sanctions Outcomes in HSE cases
Source: Pape (1998)
Of all these cases, only one was complete success (India’s imposition of sanctions against
Nepal) according to Pape (1998). It is really ironic that some economic sanctions hit one
country’s economy, almost destroy it, and at the end they show failure.
Even with all of these conditions fulfilled, Pape (1997) thinks that economic sanctions will
not be completely efficient, and that military action is always better solution in terms of
reaching the goals of foreign policy. Rudy and Ventheicer (2006) argue that efficiency of
economic sanctions depends on characteristics of sanction itself. If sanctions are imposed
bilaterally, they have better odds to be partially successful. Another characteristic that
influence success of economic sanctions is duration of imposed sanctions. If sanctions are
meant to last over long period of time, it is more likely that they are going to be less
successful or completely unsuccessful. Also, there is the question of cost of the imposed
sanctions. If sanctions impose high costs to target country, and if they do not impose high
costs to country sender of sanction, they will be more successful (Rudy and Ventheicer,
2006). Those authors that argue conditional effect of economic sanctions (Lektzian and
Souva, 2007) base their conditionality on the fact that democratic societies will be affected by
economic sanctions more than non-democratic societies.
Lektzian and Souva (2007) identify three categories that influence success of economic
sanctions: sanctions that express interest, punishment and institutions. Sanctions for
expressing interest are not concentrated on making changes in policy of other countries, but
rather to make inhabitants and voters pleased with the actions of their government.
Second category is sanctions that are used as tool for punishment. Those sanctions follow
simple policy of imposition of economic sanctions against countries whose policy is about to
be changed. Third category are institutional sanctions that are combination of those two
mentioned above. Elliot et al. (2008) also argue some sort of conditionality. When deciding
whether sanctions are effective, they sort them by their goals, their political and economic
impact on country affected by sanction, their characteristics in given occasion. When
governments impose sanctions that have conflicted goals, sanctions will most probably be
ineffective and unsuccessful. When it comes to sanctions whose goal is to change government
of other country, they must be all-inclusive and quickly imposed.
“A strategy of “turning the screws” (increase pressure and extend the duration) gives the
target leaders time to adjust by finding alternative suppliers or markets, by building new
alliances, and by mobilizing domestic opinion in support of its policies.” (Elliot et al. 2008)
Those three authors recommend 4 assumptions according to which economic sanctions will
be the most successful: Sender of sanctions should avoid high costs, both political and
economic (when sanctions with higher cost of imposition fail, country sender can have severe
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problems); multilateral sanctions together with modest goal (not too big bite) are more
efficient than others (when sanctions have small goal to achieve and when they are imposed
multilaterally, they have better odds for success ); imposed sanctions should be quick and
comprehensive (successful sanctions lasted about three years, while unsuccessful sanctions
lasted about eight years); target country should be weaker in political and economic sense,
than country imposer (it is natural that stronger countries are able to impose stronger
sanctions and that sanctions imposed against poor countries are more successful).
Economic sanctions were very effective during the 1940s and 1950s. But after developments
in world economy and increase in usage of unilateral sanction (especially the USA),
efficiency of those sanctions is enormously decreased. Today’s economies are very connected
and they heavily depend on international trade. Although this dependence means various
sources of supply, it also means that imposition of economic sanctions is easier than ever.
In his speech, Patterson (1994) derived few important conclusions regarding economic
sanction imposition: It is important to know the right time and place for imposition of
sanctions; harshness of sanctions should be proportionally divided and those who are not
guilty for bad policy should not be harmed by sanctions; countries that impose sanctions
should monitor their effects very closely; only legitimate authority should impose sanctions
(e.g. the UN); sanctions should be imposed according to their popularity amongst people of
targeted country (if there is a strong opposition, there is higher chance that people will follow
that opposition against leading party or leader); it is very important to protect basic human
rights guaranteed by international authorities and conventions while imposing sanctions;
sanctions need some time in order to start working. This last conclusion is in conflict with
opinions of majority authors who concluded that sanctions are more efficient if they last
shorter.
3.3 Impact of economic sanctions on innocent people
Harming innocent people is probably the most adverse impact of economic sanctions. Primary
goal of economic sanctions is to harm leaders of target country in order to change their views
and policy. Although harming is unintentional in most cases, it is also possible that countries
senders impose sanctions intentionally. Economic sanctions mostly affect ordinary people of
target countries, because imposer countries know that the easiest way to make changes is to
turn people against their leaders. Iraq in 1990s is a clear proof that sanctions can kill more
people than true military sanctions and irony lies in the fact that almost all dead people were
civilians.
According to Gordon (1999), imposition of economic sanctions can be compared to siege in
old history wars. In those wars, civil casualties are mass and same like those in countries that
receive economic sanctions. Prohibition of imports of goods was done in those wars in same
way as it is done in today’s imposition of economic sanctions, which creates the biggest
problem to those not included in political incidents. When attacking a country with economic
sanctions, imposers should avoid innocent casualties in order to make economic sanctions
successful and clean. It is very interesting how leaders of powerful countries do not
characterize economic sanctions as war crime, even though they have the same impact on
innocent people like wars and other types of crimes. Other types of problems that civilians
faced with under economic sanctions are increased cost of goods, criminalization (smuggling
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inelastic goods, etc.) and one very dangerous psychical problem which is the increase in
radicalism and extremism.
Although target sanctions (also called “smart sanctions”) have only certain group that
surrounds political head of receiver country for target, they did not show success in avoiding
undesirable casualties, such as harming innocent people. Countries that impose sanctions
often have hidden intentions and under the policy of removing the dictators they also hurt
people they do not like or people considered to be dangerous (murders of Iran’s nuclear
scientists). Gavin (1989) argues that discriminating consequences of economic sanctions have
key influence on success of those sanctions. Those sanctions could also cause lack of
medicines, even though those medicines are rarely under the sanctions.
The case of Iraqi sanctions from 1990s proves that economic sanctions exhausted people so
much that their incomes decreased to that level, where they were unable to buy medicines.
This shows how sanctions harm people, even when medicines and other essential things are
out of sanctions. There is an interesting question after all these facts: Do imposer countries
think that dictators like Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong Il, and others suffer when sanctions on
food and other goods are imposed? Of course not. This situation is even good for dictators,
because it can consolidate their position. They control those goods that exist beside sanctions
and with them they can control people. As it is mentioned, one of the serious impacts of
economic sanctions is emergence of criminalization connected to economic sanction, such as
smuggling and other types of crime acts. “The imposition of comprehensive sanctions by the
international community unintentionally encouraged much closer state-criminal ties and largescale smuggling” (Andreas, 2005).
4.Classical Cases of Economic Sanctions
4.1.Serbia in 1990s
Some of the most comprehensive sanctions were imposed against Yugoslavia (today Serbia)
in 1990s. Their politics caused the breakdown of Socialistic Republic of Yugoslavia. The
politics of Serbs was different than opinion of other nations within Yugoslavia, and because
of that, they wanted to separate from the country. Serbia, as “protector of Yugoslavia”, did not
allow other republics to separate, and then the first war since WWII in Europe started. When
Europe and the UN saw how severe those conflicts are, they tried to stop them, or at least to
decrease their quantity. First action was the imposition of sanctions.
Since 1990s and emergence of war conflicts in many parts of world, especially on Balkans,
world’s most powerful countries began with massive usage of economic sanctions as tool of
foreign policy. In May 1992 Serbia faced with sanctions. Although Serbian authors argue that
Milosevic, the president of Yugoslavia, accepted sanctions and they declare sanctions as
successful, sanctions did not have so strong impact on suspension of war conflicts. However,
sanctions had impact on creation of peace treaty. Sanctions, such as embargo on weapons,
directly influenced war in Bosnia, because it was directed only against Bosnian Muslims. First
round of economic sanctions was imposed after disobedience to resolution for cease of all
conflicts on May 30.
Security Council of the United Nations requested embargo on imports of all products
produced in Yugoslavia, ban on supply of all goods and commodities to Yugoslavia, except
medical supplies and food for hungry people and social cases. All technical and scientific
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exchange as well as visits and cultural exchange, was suspended. Diplomatic visits were
reduced to the lowest level.
“It also decided that all states should not make available to the authorities in FRY, or to any
commercial, industrial or publicly utility undertaking in FRY, any funds or any other financial
or economic resources. Air-traffic was also prohibited, as well as participation of persons and
groups representing FRY in sporting events” (Delevic, 1998). Original idea for imposition of
economic sanctions was to stop conflict and to save people from violation of their basic
human rights, but like in almost all of the cases of economic sanctions, the biggest burden of
those sanctions was on ordinary people of all republics in Yugoslavia. The impact of
sanctions on Serbia’s economy was strong. Data says that income per capita decreased by
50%, from $3240 to $1390. Yugoslavia’s old suppliers suspended all activities in that country
and it was hard to find new ones. It was hard and expensive to find other materials that will
replace missing one, and furthermore it led to decrease in living standards.
Three months after the imposition of economic sanctions, Yugoslavian industrial production
fell down by 40%.
Figure 2: Index of Industrial production in Yugoslavia
Source: Federal Bureau for Statistics, Yugoslavia, 1998
Figure 2 shows the decrease in Yugoslavia’s Industrial Production from 1989 until 1994. First
signs of fall were in 1989 with rocky confidence between republics in Yugoslavia and
continued with the start of war conflicts in 1991. The sharpest fall started with the imposition
of economic sanctions that stroke all aspects of Yugoslavia’s economy. Impact of sanctions
on GDP and public spending was enormous.
Table 4: Changes in Public spending and revenues
% of GDP
1990
1991
1992
1993
Public spending
49
63
65
70
Revenues
46
46
24
11
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Source: Author`s own calculations, data from “Economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool”,
2002, pp. 30
According to Table 4, public spending as a percentage of GDP increased during the period of
economic sanctions in Yugoslavia, while revenues decreased significantly. Monthly rate of
inflation in Yugoslavia in 1993 was 4667%.When it comes to unemployment in Yugoslavia
during the imposition of economic sanctions, it is important to mention that unemployment
increased enormously in the period of three years (1991-1993), from 14% to 39%. In year
1992, 1.3 million of workers in Yugoslavia were out of work, so called paid leave, and around
750 000 people were unemployed. In terms of employment, sanctions stroke women the most.
In 1998, there were 56% of unemployed women. One major fact shaped so high volume of
budget deficit in Yugoslavia during the sanction period.
Serbs that lived in Croatia and Bosnia, asked for humanitarian help from their mother land
Serbia, and every year big amount of government spending went to those people in other
countries. According to Jovanovic and Sukovic (2002) percentage of Serbian citizens that
lived with less than 2$ per day increased to 39% in 1992, comparing to 14% in 1990. “The
percent of income used to purchase food varied between 30 and 40% during 1980-91. In
1993, it rose to a 50%, signaling nutrition emergency. For low income people the rate was
even higher - around 60%. In 1991, the average salary bought one food basket for a family of
four. In 1993, it bought only 1/5 of the food basket” (Jovanovic, Sukovic, 2002).
When it comes to criminalizing consequence of economic sanctions, the best example is
Yugoslavia in 1990s. Like in every nondemocratic society, imposition of economic sanctions
and other types of sanctions is good opportunity for emergence of criminal actions or even
development of existing criminal groups and their actions. Smuggling was the most used
criminalizing action during the period of economic sanctions, and while smuggling is illegal
act, it was considered as patriotic act during the period of economic sanctions in Yugoslavia
(Andreas, 2005). Economic sanctions had positive effects on only one kind of people in
Yugoslavia, criminals. Although one goal of economic sanctions was to eliminate Milosevic,
the president of Yugoslavia, they did opposite.
As it is argued before, economic sanctions are extremely favorable for nondemocratic leaders.
The same situation was with Milosevic. He controlled the most important goods (oil, flour,
sugar etc.) and all humanitarian help, and he blamed foreign forces for bad economic situation
in country. He persuaded his inhabitants that he is able to pull out his country from economic
and political darkness and he also supplied groups that supported him with goods that were in
shortage. The best example of legal smuggling in Yugoslavia was oil smuggling. Milosevic
smuggled oil from Russia through port in Montenegro (another republic of Yugoslavia that
was not independent at that time). The distribution of oil was in hands of Milosevic and to
him loyal people also.
Many authors say that economic sanctions imposed against Yugoslavia were effective
because they stop the war. This statement is worthy to discuss. War in Bosnia stopped after
the progress that Muslim army made in 1995. Richard Holbrook, American diplomat that
created Dayton agreement, admitted that he made mistake when he stop progression of
Muslim army in Bosnia, because today’s Bosnia is “Barrel of gunpowder”. Another reason for
ending the war in Bosnia was severity of the conflict. Europe and the USA could not allow
further extensions of this war that took more than 200 000 human casualties by 1995. This is
why, the opinion that economic sanctions ended war in Yugoslavia is funny. Only impacts
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that economic sanctions had are partial obedience of Serbia to the UN, and humanitarian crisis
they have created.
4.2.Iran in 2000s
Although Iran faced the International rage and economic sanctions after Islamic revolution in
1979, today’s situation is even worse for Iran’s reputation on international scene and
especially its economy. During 1990s international community was informed that Iran tries to
develop nuclear program for civilian usage. However, in years 2002 and 2003 information
about Iran’s hidden enrichment of fuel, leaked. Iran claimed that they do not have hidden
intentions and their only purpose of fuel enrichment is to obtain high power from nuclear
resources. The USA and Israel have major concerns because of Iran’s “nuclear program” and
they threatened Iran with war. According to the USA and Israel, Iran has plans to produce an
atomic bomb.
Iran declared its full support to Palestinians in their fight for liberty. This is why Israel is
afraid of Iran and their nuclear program. Nuclear problem forced the UN to impose many
rounds of economic sanctions against Iran. Four rounds of economic and other sanctions are
imposed against Iran by the UN since 2006. Also there is huge number of national sanctions
imposed by the USA, Japan, Canada, Israel, Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, India, EU,
etc. The UN imposed sanctions because of Iran’s refusal to cooperate with International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as to suspend all uranium-enrichment activities. The
UN sanctions were imposed as follows: first round in 2006, second in 2007, third in 2008 and
fourth in 2010. Those sanctions were massive and they hit all parts of Iran’s economy and its
population. The UN sanctions included: a ban on exports to Iran of all materials, goods and
technology that could be of help for further enrichment of uranium and further development
of Iran’s Nuclear Program (INP); a prohibition of any assistance to any person that could
manage or help in exports of prohibited goods (mentioned above) to Iran; a ban on exports of
all arms and war technology as well as a ban on all financial assistance that could be helpful
for Iran’s Nuclear program; asset freeze to all persons that could be involved into
development of INP; a travel ban to all persons involved into development of INP and others.
Non-UN sanctions also included prohibition of investing into Iran’s gas or oil sector,
prohibition of providing Iran’s shipping industry with materials for making ships and their
maintenance, etc. EU and the USA, and many other countries focused their sanctions on travel
bans for persons that are involved in INP as well as sanctions against major banks in Iran. The
latest sanctions imposed against Iran are EU sanctions (23 January, 2012) that targeted Iran’s
main industry oil. EU prohibited imports of crude oil from Iran and other petroleum products;
all assets of Iran’s Central bank within EU are frozen; trade in precious materials, gold and
diamonds is banned. Imposition of those sanctions could cost EU very much. According to
World Bank almost 40% of Iran’s oil is bought by EU countries, and even though Europe
thinks these sanctions will hit Iran the most, it does not have to be the case.
Three biggest buyers of Iran’s oil in EU are Italy, Spain and Greece. Those three countries are
endangered by a huge deficit and they are the weakest parts of EU. If they face oil shortage,
they could fall into even worse situation than they are in today, and that could be disastrous
for Euro zone and common currency.
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Figure 3: Europe-Iran crude oil Trade
Source: U.S.Energy information administration, 2011, www.eia.gov
Figure 3 shows how huge the dependence of some European countries on Iran is, when it
comes to the imports of crude oil. Greece, the EU country with the strongest economic
problems within the Europe at the moment is the biggest importer of crude oil from Iran.
Economic sanctions imposed by many countries of the world, made Iran’s payments harder
for execute, and therefore Iran’s imports from many countries is endangered, even imports
from those that did not impose sanctions. Lack of hard currency is also a problem for Iran.
This is why Iranians have troubles while traveling abroad. Although, International Monetary
Fund (IMF) estimated in July last year that percentage of oil in total Iran’s exports will be
around 78 %, oil and other energy exports for 2011/2012 is much smaller and its portion
within GDP is only 21 %.Hufbauer estimates that latest economic sanctions imposed against
Iran could decrease its GDP by 10% (Torchia, 2012).
Table 5: Iran’s Average Annual Real GDP Growth
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit (World Bank)
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According to Table 5, Iran’s real GDP growth had difficulties during the period of sanctions.
Before sanctions, growth was 7.1 in year 2003 and even 7.5 in 2002. But in 2005 it was 4.7. It
was estimated that growth in 2010 was 2.9, which is huge difference compared to 2002. Iran
had problems with inflation even before economic sanctions, and when they were imposed
situation became worse. According to Torchia (2012) inflation rate went to 20% in the last 18
months and analysts assume that the real rate of inflation is even higher. One of the reasons is
because sanctions made imports more expensive. As it always happens in economy, higher
inflation makes national currency less valuable.
One of the areas that were stricken very much is Foreign Direct Investment. Many foreign
investors gave up on investing in Iran because of bad political situation. Others gave up
because of the USA and the UN pressure. All these things forced foreign investors as well as
foreign suppliers out of Iran. Without FDI, Iran’s economy must go down.
Figure 4: Foreign Direct Investment in Iran during the sanctions period
Source: Iran Ministry of Economy and Finance
Figure 4 shows that since imposition of economic sanctions in 2006, Foreign Direct
Investment decreased a lot. Although before 2010 there is a small increase, after latest EU
sanctions in 2012, FDI will probably decrease a lot. When it comes to efficiency of those
economic sanctions imposed against Iran, officials disagree. John Bolton, a senior fellow at
the American Enterprise Institute, doubts their efficiency, but admits that sanctions are brutal.
Shamuel Bar, Director of Studies at the Institute of Policy and Strategy in Herzliya, says that
new stricter economic sanctions will be counterproductive and that they will even improve
Iran’s nuclear program (Press TV).
Opposite to these opinions, most of European and American politicians and scientists consider
economic sanctions efficient and until now successful. Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State,
says that sanctions “had slowed Iran’s nuclear program” and that sanctions disturbed Iran’s
economy, especially in the two sectors: Exports and banking (NY Times). The USA Congress
is preparing new set of sanctions against Iran and they targeted all companies and persons
linked to Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Barak Obama imposed sanctions against Iran’s
Central bank in order to block financing Iran’s nuclear program (Fox news).
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
This announcement came few weeks after Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz
through which around 20% of world’s oil passes and that Iran will suspend all oil shipment to
Europe (Financial Times). Economic sanctions against Iran had some success indeed, but it is
questionable will they reach their final goal. After all these sanctions, Iran must work harder
than ever in order to find suitable technologies (and even scientists because many of them are
murdered by Mossad and CIA) that will be helpful for development of nuclear program.
Figure 5: Iran’s crude oil exports, millions of barrels per day
other EU; 0,13
India; 0,33
China; 0,54
Spain; 0,14
Turkey; 0,18
Italy; 0,18
South Korea;
0,24
Other;
0,18
Japan; 0,34
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011
Figure 5 shows Iran’s crude oil exports in first six months of 2011. Total exports were 2.26
millions of barrels per one day. As we can see, countries that already declared opposition to
oil embargo (India, China, South Korea, Turkey) are importing 1.29 millions of barrels per
day from Iran, which is 57% of all Iran’s exports per day. Japan only imposed sanctions on
goods that could help Iran’s nuclear program and also hesitate to impose sanctions on oil. EU
imposed oil embargo against Iran in January 2012, but its true implementation will start in
July. This gives plenty of time to Iran to find other buyers to fulfill the gap that will appear
after the EU countries stop importing the oil.
China and India (huge markets) already rejected sanctions against Iran and they have
announced that they will even increase their imports of oil from Iran. Iran will probably offer
their oil at discount prices in order to attract countries to buy excess of oil that will appear
after Europe stops buying it (Wall Street Journal). In that situation nothing new will happen.
Iran will sell all of its oil and only problem will be the loss of 20-30 billion dollars because of
discount. Almost same situation is with other goods that Iran exports.
218
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Figure 6: Iran’s Exports to Selected countries
Source: International Monetary Fund
According to Figure 6, Iran’s exports with selected countries increased even in the period of
sanctions imposed by UN (2006, 2007, and 2008). China, India and Turkey will continue and
even increase the import of Iran’s oil (Japan imposed sanctions only against persons involved
in nuclear program). All economic sanctions imposed against Iran could be a part of pre-war
preparations, as history already showed many times. The idea is to make Iran retarded by
imposing arm embargo and to create many collaborators that will cooperate with the USA and
Israel in the case of military action, as well as to turn people against their government. When
it comes to sanctions itself, Iran’s economy could survive despite them as long as they can
find buyers for their oil, which is the major source of Iran’s exports and significant portion of
Iran’s GDP.
5.Conclusions
Economic sanctions gained on importance nowadays. By using economic tools for achieving
political and diplomatic goals, countries around the world try to keep peace or to fulfill their
interests. Economic sanctions have been used since WWII as tools for preventing conflicts
and for changing political systems of other countries. Since 1990, countries increased usage of
these types of sanctions. The most famous sanctions were against Iraq, Yugoslavia, Iran, and
Zimbabwe. According to many relevant sources, economic sanctions are generally inefficient.
In many studies that examined more than 150 economic sanctions throughout the history,
some signs of success are noticeable in small number of cases. Complete success was found
in less than 5% of all cases studied. So, it can be concluded that economic sanctions are
unsuccessful in achieving their goals. In order to impose successful economic sanctions,
countries need sanctions that will have following characteristics: it is better when sanctions
are multilateral (countries that receive sanctions are unable to find substitution for missing
goods and commodities); sanctions must be imposed by powerful economy and they are more
efficient if imposed against poorer economy; sanctions imposed against democratic country
have higher chances to be efficient than those imposed against nondemocratic society (if
imposed against nondemocratic, they can even be counterproductive, meaning they can
219
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
strengthen the position of the dictator); quick and comprehensive (hit all aspects of economy)
sanctions are better than slow (long lasting) and those that are not comprehensive.
In addition to this, it is important to say that sanctions are almost always successful when one
country that imposes sanctions, controls all trade of country that receives sanctions. Targeted
or smart sanctions are those which are planned carefully and which have very narrow part of
economy to attack. In order to influence political situation in one country, imposers attack
assets (freezing them) of certain persons, companies and groups that are closest and mostly
involved in that political situation (for example, to freeze abroad assets of persons involved in
political situation of one country). By doing so, imposer countries of sanctions avoid negative
side effects and unintentional harming of innocent people. When it comes to the impact of
economic sanctions, harming innocent people is negative side effect that everyone
emphasizes.
It is expected that imposition of sanctions on oil and commodities will harm innocents the
most. Real economic consequence of oil embargo is the rise of prices of all goods and
services. This increase in prices will affect living expenses of ordinary citizens of a country.
All sanctions should be planned in order to avoid harming civilians. This study reveals that
almost all sanctions harmed innocent people in every country where they were imposed. Two
examples of economic sanctions are taken to be analyzed in this study: economic sanctions
imposed against Yugoslavia during the war in 1990s, and economic sanctions imposed against
Iran. Many authors emphasize the case of Yugoslavia when they speak about successful
sanctions, but severity and number of casualties accelerated the end of the war in that country.
These sanctions had many good aspects (imposed multilaterally, against nondemocratic
country, very comprehensive) and because of that they were partially efficient in case of
forcing Yugoslavia’s president to obedience. To conclude, economic sanctions imposed
against Yugoslavia were one of the most comprehensive in human history and partially
successful.
Iran’s current nuclear sanctions are the most comprehensive ongoing sanctions. The UN
imposed four rounds of sanctions against Iran with many unilateral sanctions imposed by
other countries, led by the USA sanctions. After examination of Iran’s sanctions in this study
it can be concluded that sanctions imposed against Iran are partially efficient because they
slowed down Iran’s nuclear program, but inefficient in a way that they could not stop it
totally. It might be argued that the real purpose of sanctions against Iran is to exhaust that
country in order to attack it and to finish its nuclear program with military action. That would
not be first time in history that sanctions ended with military action. To summarize, although
sanctions proved to be unsuccessful in most cases they are still in use because every peaceful
action is better than military conflict and unnecessary casualties.
REFERENCES
Amuzegar, J., (1997), Iran’s economy and US sanctions, Middle East Journal, Vol. 51, No.
2, pp. 185-199
Andreas, P.,(2007), Criminalizing consequences of Sanctions: Embargo Busting and Its
Legacy, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 335-360
Bruno, G., (2010), Iran’s Nuclear Program,
http://www.cfr.org/iran/irans-nuclear-program/p16811
220
Council
on
Foreign
Relations,
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Council of the European Union, (2012), Iran: New EU sanctions target sources of finance for
nuclear
program,
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/127444.pdf
Delevic, M.,(1998), Economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool: The case of Yugoslavia, The
International Journal of Peace Studies, Volume 3, Number 1, pp. 1-94.
Dimitrijevic, V.(1993), Sanctions, Regime and People, Review of International Affairs, pp.
11-12.
Drury, A. C., (2000), U.S. Presidents and the Use of Economic Sanctions, Presidential Studies
Quarterly, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 623-642
Elliot, K. A., (1997), Corruption as an international policy problem: Overview and
recommendations, Corruption and the global economy, Washington, pp. 175-233
Elliot,
K.
A.,
Hufbauer
G.
C.,
Oegg
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ Sanctions.html, pp. 1-15
B.,
(2008),
Sanctions,
Financial Times, (2012), http://www.ft.com/home/uk, (accessed on February 7, 2012)
Forester, W. A., (1926), Sanctions, Journal of the British Institute of International Affairs,Vol.
5, No. 1 pp. 1-15
Fox news, (2012), http://www.foxnews.com, (accessed on February 7, 2012)
Gavin, J.G., (1989), Cato.org, http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa124es.html, pp. 1-30,
(accessed on January 28, 2012)
Gordon, J., (1999 ), Economic sanctions, just war doctrine, and the "fearful spectacle of the
civilian dead, crosscurrents.org, pp. 1-20, http://www. crosscurrents.org/gordon.htm,
Holbrooke, R., (1995), America, A European Power, Foreign Affairs, Volume 74, No. 2, pp.
20-51.
Hufbauer, Clyde G., Schott J. J., and Elliott K. A., (1990), Economic Sanctions
Reconsidered, Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, Rev. ed. 2 vols., pp.
1-92.
Ilias,.S.,(2010), Iran’s economic conditions: U.S. policy issues, Congressional Research
Service, CRS Report for Congress, pp. 1-6., http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL34525.pdf,
Jovanovic,
P.,
Sukovic,
D.,(2002),
A
decade
http://www.transparentnost.org.rs/dokumenti/d012.html, pp. 1-55
under
sanctions,
Lektzian, D., Souva, M., (2007), An Institutional Theory of Sanctions Onset and Success, The
Journal of Conflict Resolution,Vol. 51, No. 6, pp. 848-871
NY Times, (2011), http://www.nytimes.com, (accessed on February 7, 2012)
Pape, R. A.,(1997), Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work, International Security, Vol. 22,
No. 2, pp. 90-136
Patterson, J., (1994), The Sanctions Dilemma, Middle East Report, No. 187/188, Intervention
and North-South Politics in the 90's, pp. 24-27
Press TV, (2012), http://www.presstv.ir, (accessed on February 7, 2012)
Realite-eu.org,
(2012),
http://www.realiteeu.org/site/c.9dJBLLNkGiF/b.2267931/k.BD8D/Home.htm, (accessed on February 7, 2012)
221
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Richman S., (1997), The evils of economic sanctions, http://www. fff.org/freedom/0297c.asp,
(accessed on December 24, 2012)
Rudy, M., and Venteicher J., (2006), Prospect Theory and economic sanctions, Midwest
Political Science, pp. 9-11
Talwar, P., (2001), Iran in the balance, Foreign affairs, Vol. 80, No. 4, pp.58-71
The Economist, (2012), http://www.economist.com, (accessed on February 7, 2012)
Today’s Zeman, (2010), http://www.todayszaman.com/mainAction.action, (accessed on
February 7, 2012)
Torbat, A. E., (2005), Impact of the US trade and Financial sanctions on Iran, The world
economy, Volume 28, Issue 3, pages 407–434
Torchia, A.,(2012), Analysis: Iran economy could limp along under sanctions,
Reuters, http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE8150MH20120206, pp. 1-8.
Wallensteen, P.,(1968), Characteristics of Economic Sanctions, Journal of Peace Research,
Vol. 5, No. 3 pp. 248-267
Wall Street Journal, (2012), http://europe.wsj.com/home-page, (accessed on February 7,
2012)
Risk Tolerance and Investment Preferences in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Mela Hadrovic, Ugur Ergun
International Burch University, Faculty of Economics,
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mails: mela_hadrovic@hotmail.com, uergun@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract
Risk tolerance is considered as an important factor in making financial decisions, saving and
investment choices. This paper has examined level of investment risk tolerance and
investment preferences of B&H’s population and it had explored whether demographic and
socioeconomic factors to risk tolerance and investment preferences. Using a randomly chosen
sample of 200 individuals above the age of 20, empirical analysis has shown that above
independent variables that are significantly affecting individual’s risk tolerance are income
level, education level and gender. Regression analysis has proven that above average risk
tolerance is associated with higher income level and higher education level. Moreover,
analysis has supported the assumption that males are more risk tolerant then females.
Regarding the investment preferences, obtained results show that the out of eight independent
variables, only variable measuring whether an individual has a financial commitment is
significantly negatively related to the investment.
222
�
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Title
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Efficiency and Impact of Economic Sanctions
Author
Author
Ilham, Redzic
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
The purpose of this paper is to examine economic sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and to give judgment to their efficiency and impact. Since WWI economic sanctions have been used as a tool for preventing conflicts and signaling instrument of foreign policy. Their efficiency and impact have been the main topics for many discussions. Since the War in Yugoslavia in 1991, economic sanctions gained on their importance and usage. Two classical examples of economic sanctions will be discussed in this paper: War in Yugoslavia and sanctions against Iran. Economic sanctions appear to be unsuccessful in most cases and their usual victims are innocent inhabitants. Keywords: Economic sanctions, efficiency of economic sanctions, Yugoslavia, Iran.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance
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90dd6bd1b508312dedab9026b54742e8
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Text
Ökmen, M. (2006) Uyum Sürecinin Ekoloji-Politiği: AB ve Türkiye‘de Çevre Politikaları,
AB Yolunda Türkiye: Müzakere Sürecinin Ekonomi Politiği, M. Dikkaya (eds), Alfa Aktüel,
İstanbul.
Önder, T. (2003) Derin Ekoloji Üzerine, Liberal Düşünce Dergisi, 8 (30-31),
Turgut, N. Y. (2009) Çevre Politikası ve Hukuku, İmaj Yayınevi, Ankara.
Ünder, H. (1997) Çevre Ahlakı: İnsanmerkezcilik ve Çevremerkezcilik, Adakentliyim, 3
(10).
Woods, K. (2006) What Does the Language of Human Rights Bring to Campaigns for
Environmental Justice?, Environmental Politics, 15 (4), August, 572-591
Yılmaz, A. Bozkurt Y. (2007) Avrupa Birliği‘ne Uyum Sürecinde Türk Çevre Politikalarının
Dönüşümü, Küresel Esintiler ve Yerel Etkiler Sarmalında Türk Kamu Yönetimi, (eds.)
A.Yılmaz and Y. Bozkurt, Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara.
Importance of Tissue Culture Techniques in Sustainablity of Endangerd plant Species
Ibrahim Baktir1*,Gülden Yilmaz1, Özgül Karaguzel2 and Deniz Hazar3
1Akdeniz University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Horticulture, Antalya
2Western Mediterranean Research Institute, Antalya
3Akdeniz University, Kumluca Vocational School, Antalya
E-mail: ibaktir@akdeniz.edu.tr
Abstract
Tissue culture techniques have profound importance in mass propagation of various
commercial crops in practice as in well known fruit tree rootstocks, a few vegetable and
especially ornamental plants as well as some undomesticated plant species. Herbaceous
species are somewhat easier to propagate compared to woody ones by tissue culture
techniques. These techniques have not affectively applied to native plant species due to
economical concerns although so many native plant species have been under threat and
therefore they have been facing with extinction in all over the world. Human interferences is
the main cause of the extinction of wild species especially in highly populated areas as it is
the case in Marmara, Aegean and Coastal Mediterranean regions of Turkey because of new
settlements, infrastructural works, overgrazing and uncontrolled collections. Thus, a big
number of wild plant species are disappearing every year. Tissue culture techniques have
merit value to propagate the endangered wild plant species to release the encountering
pressure on these plants
Keywords: Tissue culture, endangered species, sustainability
345
�1.What is an endangered plants
An endangered species is a population of organisms (animals or plants) which is at risk of
becoming extinct because it is either few in numbers or threatened by changing environmental
or predation parameters. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has
calculated the percentage of endangered species.
Many nations have laws offering protection to conservation reliant species: for example,
forbidding hunting, restricting land development or creating preserves.
In spite of the conservation activities, the threat is a real universal problem. About 9,322 plant
species are under threats in the world. Unfortunately, the problem is getting bigger in every
next year. The U.S.A is a world leader in endangered plants. The Turkish Flora has a similar
problem. The threats facing the Turkish flora are diverse and fall into no fewer than 25
categories, ranging from agricultural reclamation, intensive forestry and industrial/urban
development‘s (which often affect sites to a large and highly damaging extent), to less
obvious threats such as the collection of species for trade and the spread of invasive alien
plant species into environment. Conservation of the endangered species will require a range of
approaches to be taken from improved legislation to on-the-ground site management (Özhatay
et al., 2005). Due to uncontrolled collection, mainly in herbaceous plants including aromatic
and medicinal plants have been facing with threat for years. Unfortunately, there is no official
status for these plants yet. The wild plant collectors and traders are getting the advantage of
gaps of the status and legislations for uncontrolled wild collections mainly on Western Taurus
Mountains. Some of these plants are heavily under threat. Beside flowering geophytes
(Galanthus elwesii, Anemone blanda, Eranthis hyemalis, Cyclamen spp. and Stenbergia
candida), a list of top ten of these aromatic and medicinal plants are given in Table 1(Özhatay
et al., 1997).
Table 1: A List of Ten Aromatic and Medicinal Plants Which are Under Threat
Scientific Name
Family
English Name
IUCN Categories
1. Acorus calamus
Araceae
Sweet flag
Endangered (ED)
2.Ankyropetalum
gypsophylloides
Caryophyllaceae
Siirt gypsum
Data deficient (DD)
3. Ballota cristata
Labiatae
Foetid, horehound
Rare (R)
4.Barlia robertiana
Orchidaceae
Orchis, salep
Endangered
5.Gentiana lutea
Gentianaceae
Gentian, bitter root
Endangered
6.Gypsophiyla arrostii Caryophyllaceae
var. nebulosa
Arrost‘s baby‘s-root
Rare
7.Lycopodium
annotinum
Lycopodiaceae
Wolf‘s claw
Data deficient
8.Origanum
minutiflorum
Labiatae
Marjorum
Rare
346
�9. Paeonia mascula
Paeoniaceae
Peony
Rare
10. Ruscus aculeatus
Liliaceae
Butcher‘s broom
Vulnerable (VU)
*Özhatay et al., 1997.
DD-Data deficient: A taxa is DD when there is inadequate information about its distribution
and/or population status.
ED-Endangered: A taxa is ED when it is not critically endangered but is facing a very high
risk of extinction in the wild in the near future.
VU- Vulnerable: A taxa is VU when it is not critically endangered but it is facing a high risk
of extinction in the wild in the medium-term future.
R-Rare: A taxa is R when it is small world populations that is not at present endangered or
vulnerable but it is at risk.
2. Tissue Culture
Tissue culture (micro propagation) involves the production of plants from very small plant
parts, organs, tissues and cells under aseptic conditions in test tubes or various other
containers. The environmental conditions and special media either semi solid or suspension
which contain inorganic nutrients as well as phytohormones, vitamins, carbohydrates and
some others depends on the plant species and cultivars (Murashige and Skoog, 1962). The
environmental conditions and light regimes are strictly controlled throughout the cultural
activities. The ability to grow plant tissue and various plant organs such as stems, flowers,
roots, embryos, and side products in university and research institutes laboratories and also in
commercial laboratories has been in effect for many years. Tissue culture is a general term
which has been universally accepted for micro propagation of the plants in even though it has
specific uses. The application of tissue culture techniques to the regeneration and commercial
propagation of a good number of economical plants has been widely used in many countries.
Therefore, the tissue culture practices became good alternative for conventional propagation
methods for a wide range of important plant species (Babaoğlu et al., 2004; Baktır et al.,
2003). Tissue culture systems have two primary uses beside many secondary ones
1) Rapid mass propagation of clones and
2) Development, maintenance and distribution of specific pathogen tested clones especially
virus free ones
Some of the secondary uses of tissue culture systems are;
1) Propagation of the difficult to root species and cultivars
2) Easiness of selecting promising individuals
3) Various applications in plant breeding
4) Preserving endangered species in stock houses
5) Very practical and useful techniques for gene banks
6) Producing side (secondary) products such as pharmaceuticals‘ in cell suspension systems
and so forth.
347
�Tissue culture works are a kind of long chain works with a few important steps as shown in
Figure 1.
Flowering
plant
Low-temperature
forcing
Ready for
forcing
Parent
selection
Mass production
by seeds
Nodes
from stalks
Cross
Mass production
by tissue culture
Capsule
development,
3-6 months
Capsule
Multiplication in flask,
1-2 years
Plants in 10.5-cm pots,
4-6 months
de-flask
de-flask
Plants in 7.5-cm pots,
4-6 months
Plants in 4.5-cm pots,
3-5 months
Seed germination and subculture,
10-15 months
Fig. 1: A detailed schema of tissue culture practices step by step( Chang, 2012)
Tissue culture techniques can be easily used for rapid and mass propagation of endangered
plant species in order to release the present pressure and also sustainable uses of them.
REFERANCES
Babaoğlu, M., Gürel, E. And Özcan, S., 2004. Bitki Biyoteknolojisi: Doku Kültürü ve
Uygulamaları. Cilt 1. Selçuk Üniversitesi Kampüsü, Rixos Oteli Girişi Yanı, Vakıf İdari Bina,
Konya.
Baktir, İ., Uysal, S. and Özel, S., 2003. Doku kültürü yöntemi ile miszambak (Lilium
candidum ) yetiştiriciliği üzerine bir araştırma. IV: Ulusal Bahçe Bitkileri Kongresi, 8-12
Eylül 2003,514-515, Antalya.
Chang, Y.-C. A.,2012. Phalaenopsis Production in Taiwan. XI. International Symposiun on
Flower Bulbs and Herbaceous Plants. March 28-April, 2012., Antalya, Turkey
Murashige, T. and Skoog, F., 1962. A revised medium for rapid growth and bioassays with
tobacco tissue cultures. Physiol Plant 15(3): 473-497.
Özhatay, N., Byfield, A., and Atay, S., 2005. Türkiye‘nin 122 Önemli Bitki Alanı. WWW
Türkiye(Doğal Hayatı Koruma Vakfı), Istanbul.
348
�
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1266
Title
A name given to the resource
Importance of Tissue Culture Techniques in Sustainablity of Endangerd plant Species
Author
Author
Ibrahim , Baktir
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Tissue culture techniques have profound importance in mass propagation of various commercial crops in practice as in well known fruit tree rootstocks, a few vegetable and especially ornamental plants as well as some undomesticated plant species. Herbaceous species are somewhat easier to propagate compared to woody ones by tissue culture techniques. These techniques have not affectively applied to native plant species due to economical concerns although so many native plant species have been under threat and therefore they have been facing with extinction in all over the world. Human interferences is the main cause of the extinction of wild species especially in highly populated areas as it is the case in Marmara, Aegean and Coastal Mediterranean regions of Turkey because of new settlements, infrastructural works, overgrazing and uncontrolled collections. Thus, a big number of wild plant species are disappearing every year. Tissue culture techniques have merit value to propagate the endangered wild plant species to release the encountering pressure on these plants Keywords: Tissue culture, endangered species, sustainability
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),Q Science (General)
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/dac5558e204c0dc9582737eadb16242d.pdf
03e4a8a1e85df74e1690815f3dedc2a2
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3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
REFERENCES
N. Noroozi, B.Khaki, A.Seifi,(2008)., Chaotic Oscillations Damping in Power System by
Finite Time Control Theory, International Review of Electrical Engineering (I.R.E.E.), Vol. 3,
N. 6 November-December
E. Ott, C. Grebogi, J. A. Yorke, (1990). Controlling chaos, Phys. Rev. Lett. A, Vol.64, No.3,
1196-1199
S. Emiroğlu and Y. Uyaroğlu, (2010). Control of Rabinovich chaotic system based on passive
control, Scientific Research and Essays Vol. 5(21), pp. 3298-3305.
B. Stojkovska, A. Stefanovska, R. Golob, David GrgiC, (2001). Time-delay feedback control
of ferroresonant chaotic oscillations, IEEE Porto Power Tech Conference l0th -13th
September, Porto, Portugal
V. Mortezapour, H. Lesani, A.Abbaszadeh, M. Isapour, (2009). Adaptive control of chaotic
ferroresonant oscillations in electromagnetic voltage transformers, 24th International Power
System Conference, 09-E-TRN-0154, PSC2009,
A.E. Matouk, (2008) Dynamical analysis, feedback control and synchronization of Liu
dynamical system, Nonlinear Analysis 69 3213–3224
Juan Ding, Weiguo Yang, Hongxing Yao (2009) . A New Modified Hyperchaotic Finance
System and its Control, International Journal of Nonlinear Science Vol.8No.1,pp.59-66.
Time delay feedback control of chaos in a hyper chaotic finance system
Hüseyin Gelberi, Selçuk Emiroğlu, Yılmaz Uyaroğlu, M. Ali Yalçın
Sakarya University, Electrical Electronics Engineering Department, Turkey
E-mails: hgelberi@sakarya.edu.tr, selcukemiroglu@sakaryaedu.tr, uyaroglu@sakarya.edu.tr,
yalcin@sakarya.edu.tr
Abstract
In this paper, complex behavior of a four dimensional continuous autonomous hyperchaotic
finance system is investigated. Also, this paper discusses the control of four dimensional
continuous autonomous hyperchaotic finance system by using time delay feedback control
technique. Based on the property of the time delay feedback control, the controller is designed
and this controller is added to hyperchaotic finance system for achieving the control of the
system. As a result, the control of four dimensional continuous autonomous hyperchaotic
finance system is realized. To confirm the validity of the proposed method, numerical
simulations are presented graphically.
Keywords: Hyper chaotic finance system, chaos control, time delay feedback control
139
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
1. INTRODUCTION
Chaos has been extensively interesting study area for many scientists, after Lorenz found the
first attractor in 1963 (Lorenz, 1963). After Lorenz, many chaotic systems were introduced
such as Liu system (Liu et al., 2004), Chen system (Chen, Ueta, 1999), Chua system (L.O.
Chua et al., 1986), Rössler system (Rössler, 1976), Rabinovich system (Pikovski, Rabinovich
et al., 1978) and Rikitake system (Rikitake, 1958). Chaos control has received increasingly
attentions from researchers, since OGY (Ott et al., 1990) method has been proposed. Many
control methods have been proposed for the control of chaotic systems such as adaptive
control (Wu CW et al., 1996, Y. Hong et al., 2001), sliding mode control (Konishi et al.,
1998; Ablay, 2009), linear feedback control (Yassen, 2005), and passive control (Lin, 1995;
Qi, 2004; S. Emiroğlu, 2010)
Juan Ding (J. Ding et al., 2009) have reported a dynamic model of 4D chaotic finance system,
composed of three first-order differential equations with state feedback. The state equations of
4D chaotic finance system are written below Eq 1.
x a( x y ) w
y y axz
(1)
z b axy
w cxz dw
where a; b are the parameters of the system (1), and c is constant(where c=0.2), and d is the
control parameter.
a
w
1
x
x
s
d
a
1
b
y
1
s
s
w
a
y
1
c
s
z
z
Figure 20 Matlab-Simulink model of hyper chaotic system
Using Matlab model of system (Figure 1), when parameters a = 3, b = 15, c = 0.2 and d= 0.12,
chaotic time series and phase portraits of system are obtained as shown in Figure 2 and Figure
3 respectively.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
10
x
0
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
60
70
80
90
100
60
70
80
90
100
60
70
80
90
100
5
10
t(s)
20
y
0
-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
t(s)
20
z
0
-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
t(s)
20
w
0
-20
0
10
20
30
40
50
t(s)
Figure 2 Time series of system
20
15
15
10
10
5
z
y
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-15
-10
10
-5
0
x
x
1
1
0.5
0.5
w
1.5
w
1.5
0
0
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-20
-10
0
10
-1
-15
20
y
-10
-5
0
z
Figure 3 Phase portraits of system
141
5
10
15
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2. CHAOS CONTROL OF HYPER CHAOTIC FINANCE SYSTEM
Pyragas (Pyragas, 1992) showed that chaotic behavior could be controlled by applying
delayed feedback control method. The control of chaotic finance system (2) is achieved using
time delay feedback control theory. The controlled model given by
x a( x y ) w
y y axz
(2)
z b axy u
w cxz dw
The controller u(t) is designed based on time delay feedback control as in Eq.
u(t ) K[ z(t ) z(t )]
(3)
u(t) obtained that the difference between current value of system variable z(t) and its τ
seconds previous multiplied by constant K, where K is feedback gain.
The structure of the Simulink model for the controlled chaotic finance system using delayed
feedback control method is given in Figure 4.
a
1
w
x
x
s
d
a
1
y
1
s
s
w
a
b
y
1
c
s
z
z
t
-K -
Clock
Figure 4 Matlab-Simulink model of controlled hyper chaotic system with time delay
controller
Time series of system and controlled system are shown in Figure 5. After the controller is
activated at t=20s, the system converges to zero equilibrium point as shown in Figure 5.
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x
10
0
-10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
30
35
40
45
50
30
35
40
45
50
t
y
20
0
-20
0
5
10
15
20
25
t
w
2
0
-2
0
5
10
15
20
25
t
Figure 4 Time series of controlled hyper chaotic finance system when controller is
activated at t=20s
3. CONCLUSION
The delay feedback control has been used to control chaos in hyper chaotic finance system.
By using the time delay feedback theory, controller is proposed to realize the global
asymptotical stability of the finance system. Also, the controller provides that the controlled
system converge to zero equilibrium. As shown in Figure 4, the controlled system converges
to zero equilibrium.
REFERENCES
E.N. Lorenz (1963). Deterministic non- periodic flows, J. Atmos.Sci., Vol.20, No.1, 130–141.
A.S. Pikovski, M.I. Rabinovich, V.Y. Trakhtengerts (1978). Onset of stochasticity in decay
confinement of parametric instability, Sov. Phys. JETP 47; 715-719.
C.X. Liu, et al.( 2004). A new chaotic attractor, Chaos, Solitons &Fractals, Vol.22, No.5,
1031–1038.
E. Ott, C. Grebogi, and J.A.York (1990). Controlling chaos,Phys.Rev.Lett.,vol.64,pp.11961199.
G. Chen, T. Ueta (1999). Yet another chaotic attractor, Int. J.Bifurcation and Chaos, Vol.9,
No.7, 1465-1466.
L.O. Chua, M. Komuro, T. Matsumoto (1986). The double scroll
Syst., Vol.33, No.11, 1073.1118.
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Rikitake T (1958). Oscillations of a System of Disk Dynamos,Proc. Cambridge Philos.
Soc.,54:89.
Rössler OE (1976). An equation for continuous chaos, Phys. Lett. A,;57:397–398.
Wu CW, Yang T, Chua LO (1996). On adaptive synchronization and control of nonlinear
dynamical systems, Int J Bifurcat Chaos, 6:455–71.
Y. Hong, H. Qin, G.R. Chen (2001). Adaptive synchronization of chaotic systems via state
or output feedback control, Internat. J. Bifur. Chaos, Vol.11, No.3, 1149–1158.
K. Konishi, M. Hirai and H. Kokame (1998). Sliding mode control for a class of chaotic
systems, Phys. Lett. A,
vo1.245, pp.511-517.
Günzay Ablay (2009). Sliding mode control of uncertain unified
Nonlinear Analysis: Hybrid Systems, vol.3 531-535.
chaotic
systems,
M. T. Yassen (2005). Controlling chaos and synchronization for new chaotic system using
linear feedback control, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 26, 913–920.
W. Lin (1995). Feedback stabilization of general nonlinear control system: A passive system
approach, Syst.
Contr. Lett., vol. 25, pp. 41–52.
Qi, D., G. Zhao and Y. Song (2004). Passive control of Chen chaotic system, Proc. of the 5th
World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation, Hangzhou, China, pp.1284-1286.
S. Emiroğlu, Y. U. (2010). Passivity based Chaos Control of the T System,. IMS 2010 (s.
118-125). Sarajevo, Bosnia Herzegovina: International University of Sarajevo.
Juan Ding, Weiguo Yang, Hongxing Yao (2009) . A New Modified Hyperchaotic Finance
System and its Control, International Journal of Nonlinear Science Vol.8No.1,pp.59-66.
Pyragas K. (1992). Continuous control of chaos by self-controlling feedback. Phys Lett A;170
:421–8.
A Literature Review About Sustainability Accounting
Filiz Angay Kutluk1,Mustafa Gülmez2
1 Akdeniz University, Ayşe Sak School of Applied Sciences, Antalya,Turkey
2 Akdeniz University, Tourism Faculty, Antalya,Turkey
Abstract
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to give a brief information and review ‘Sustainability
Accounting’ articles published in the period of 2000 to 2011.
Method: Articles are collected by searching main databases by abstract, keyword or article
title that contain ‘Sustainability Accounting‘. Analyses mainly include quantity analysis and
purpose analysis. The articles are classified according to journals and years in quantity
analysis. The main purposes of the articles are mentioned in the purpose analysis.
Findings and recommendations: The classifications are shown in tables and discussed. The
mostly published years and journals, the mostly chosen subject area and purposes are
144
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1290
Title
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Time delay feedback control of chaos in a hyper chaotic finance system
Author
Author
Hüseyin , Gelberi
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
In this paper, complex behavior of a four dimensional continuous autonomous hyperchaotic finance system is investigated. Also, this paper discusses the control of four dimensional continuous autonomous hyperchaotic finance system by using time delay feedback control technique. Based on the property of the time delay feedback control, the controller is designed and this controller is added to hyperchaotic finance system for achieving the control of the system. As a result, the control of four dimensional continuous autonomous hyperchaotic finance system is realized. To confirm the validity of the proposed method, numerical simulations are presented graphically. Keywords: Hyper chaotic finance system, chaos control, time delay feedback control
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ba82f3cdd7fd96bd111c6cdab2387c2b.pdf
1bf525c214696b015ce4c8966eb158cb
PDF Text
Text
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
USAL Alparslan and Osman Avşar Kurgun, (2003), Turizm İşletmelerinde Maliyet
Analizleri, Detay Yayıncılık, 2. Baskı, Ankara.
UYGUR Selma Meydan, (2007), Turizm Pazarlaması, Nobel Yayın, 1.Basım, Ankara.
YAMİN Shahid, FelixMavonda, Gunasekaran, (1997) A study of competitivestrategy,
organisationalinnovationandorganisationalperformanceamongAustralianmanufacturingcompa
nies, Int. J. ProductionEconomics" 52, 161 172
YILDIRIM Kemal, Aysu AKALIN, Kubulay ÇAĞATAY, (2008), Otel Yatak Odalarının İç
Mekân Tasarımının Kullanıcıların Algı-Davranışsal Performansı Üzerine- Etkisi,Politeknik
Dergisi, Cilt:11 Sayı: 2 s.175-185.
The Historical Dynamics Of Modernizm: A Critical Perspective
Hüsamettin İnaç1,Selami Erdoğan2
1 Political Sciences and International Relations, Dumlupinar University, Faculty of
Economics and Administrative Sciences, Turkey
2Public Administration Department, Dumlupinar University, Faculty of Economics and
Administrative Sciences, Turkey
Abstract
In recent decades, the modernism and modern socio-political analysis has been subjected to
criticism in many respects. The ideas of the global, post-modern and post-industrial societies
attempted to legimitize themselves over the criticism of the modern approach towards the
economic, social, political and philosophical parameters of modern version. Due to the fact
that the institutions, models, matrixes pertaining with the modern realm faded away one after
the other, challenging and confrontation with modernizm was popularized. Nevertheless,
many critical series of analysis remained as deficient, abortive and defective studies because
many researchers had not adequate information and awareness about the dynamics of the
modernism which was shaping the main character of modernism. Yet modernism just as the
other movements of thought was directly relevant, related and bound to the time and space
which produce them. In the light of this understanding, we attempted to elaborate the main
historical dymanics and the socio-political ground which the modernizm had been created.
We hope that this study demonstrates the intrinsic and essential trajectory which the
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modernism followed within the dark labyrinth of history in order to meet the expectations of
alternative models of societies as an harbinger.
Keywords: Modernism, modernisation, modern fallacy, social change, individualism,
Eurocentrism, colonialism, rationalism
The notion modern primarily has been used the first time in history in 5th century
handwritings of St Augustine as refering the new law, order and approaches by implying the
distinction between the paganism and Christianity. In historical approach, we encounter the
understanding of interruption, challenge and tension as the striking parameter of its
characteristic feature. Even Giddens focuses on the tension creating dimension of modernism
and argues that the modernism creates tension in building a modern individual by depending
upon the idea of competition, self-realisation, and emancipation (Giddens 1997: 284-286). In
other word, modern is a kind of transitinory period from the old to the new.
In a broader perspective, if it is required to have an etimological analysis, it is seen that the
roots of notion modern originates from the the mode or moda which means “new” and “an
entity which is “new” and “novelty” as Latin suffix (Giddens 1993: 22). As a derivative, the
word modern means the supremacy or hegemony of new one. If we regard the century when
the word modern frequently used, it refers the dominance of new values of divinal Christian
faith inspite of the previous values of paganist and politheist Greek culture. The other
derivative version of modern is modernism implies a kind of political stream which stipulates
to widespread the supremacy of new one into the different segments and all spheres of the life
and transforms this approach into an ideology and the type of life (King 1995: 27-31).
Modernity as another appearence of modernism includes the meaning of a new socio-political
milieu which emerges as a result of the penetration of the modernism into the daily social life
(Hall 1992: 43-46). Lastly, modernisation is a social phenomenon which refers the transititon
process from the traditional entity/sphere into the modern entity/sphere (Göle 2009: 55). As
we will explain in following stages of our presentation, there might be different types and
forms of modernizm and could be categorized within subject-matter of plural modernities.
Nevertheless, it is widely understood from the word modernism, the process of
westernization. Therefore, we will attempt to analyze the modernism in different perspective
by following trajectories of western history as well as the East-West relations in respect of
dialogical interaction and confrontations.
Actually, the East and West relations constitute the basis for the modernization process.
These relations are consist of very complicated and sophiticated parameters and contain the
scopes of sociology, psychology, history, philosophy, culture and politics. The most
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important constituent which prepares the modernisation is a historical experience with its
unique and specific character. From Antiquity, as it is widely known Antique Greek is
accepted as the cultural historical ancestor of the todays modern European culture and
identity, to the Information Society which we are living now, all historical turning points,
changes, waves, and transformations witnessed in European Continent creates the specific
culture and identity of Europe (İnaç 2010: 143-145). Nevertheless, the aforementioned
historical experiences which Europe lived made the European people so arrogant and one
with superiority complex that they could assert that evey society and community desired to be
civilized is supposed to suffer the same histocal trajectory which Europeans had experienced
within the past histoy by depending upon the reason which we will try to elaborate.
Moreover, as Alevli argues, the societies should pass form the collusion of the Enlightenment
in a pejorative meaning for the sake of arriving the so-called “civilization” (Alatlı 2009: 327).
West defines the events, happenings and going-ons which just only are lived in Europe such
as Renaissance, Reformation, rationalism, enligthenment, humanism, modernism as the
cultural revolutionary ladders and, thanks to these developments, perceives themselves
privileged from the other societies and distinguishes the world as “the west and the rest”. As
it is known, it is a simple, one-dimensional and reductive categorization.
This approach which has been known as “Euro-centrism” aims to sublimate the Europe in
every stage of society and supposes the other societeis as the follers of the European steps.
For instance, traditional society, agricultural society, modern society, industrial society, postindustrial society, information society (Sezal, 2010: 32-47). According to this approach,
when Turkey arrive the level of modern society, Europe would be in post-modern model of
society, if Turkey would experience the post-modern social environment, The West would be
in information society. Here it is so myobic and arrogant behaviour that the history of the
other societies could be seen as indistinc and insignificant. This patological perception of
history is called as “weak historianism” with the specific conceptualisation of Göle (Göle
2011: 78-79).
Within the background of this understanding was consist of the othering, alienation and
marginalisation of the East and the perception of the East as imaginary, phantasmal and
romantic realm. Within the framework of the western perception, the East can be just only
shaped in accordance with the standpont and vision of the West. Under these circumstances.
The Orient as the meaning of the East which the western people perceive, wass full of people
lazy, feeble-minded, clumsy and rude ordinary people (Keyman, Mutman, Yeğenoğlu 1996:
77-79). Nevertheless, God donated these people varous kinds of generous benefections and
boons. On the other hand, the mission of civilized European people was to relief and remove
this unjustifiable and inequal situation and introduce this wealth and capital into the service
of all people. This approach and perception gained reputation with the name of Orientalism
(Said 1998: 66). As an outcome or product of this understanding, Portugal, Netherland and
Spain as the countries which had the naval powers and the leading actors of modernisation
went along with the western direction initiated the colonisation process. This brutal, ruthless
and inhuman adventure took place in literature as “westernisation of the west” (Delanty 2004:
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59-66). In this period, the west couldn’t have an opportunity to pass into the East because the
Ottoman Empire transformed the Mediterranean into the Muslim-Turk Lake and became into
common other and threat for Europe.
As a result of this reality, the western powers concentrated on spreading her culture and
identity into the western part of the west. The aforementioned colonisation process developed
in line with the secularism and the establishment of nation-state. In this line, the
transportation of almost all wealths of the Arfican and American continents into Europe
created the capitalismand ist primitive version of merchantilism. On the other hand, the
national culture and identity of the Europe had been universalised and the content of this has
been inherented by the notions of human and minority rights, supremacy of law, democracy,
multicultalism, cultural plurality. These all collections have been termed as “civilisation”
(Ağaoğulları 2009: 34). Nevertheless, there is very important point to bear in mind that if
there wouldn’t be the existence of the Ottoman Empire with very strong and firm character
led to the constitution fo the modernisation and the notion of civilisation. That is, the Europe
would go towards to the East and fragmentatised and emasculated. We can easily summarize
this argumentation with below assertation: “the Ottoman Turks as strong and common threat
led to the emergence of the extention of modernism and the term civilizaiton by both
reinforcing and strengthening the European people among themselves and automatically
creating the self identity and directing all attentions and sinergies towards the west as a
whole. That is the harbinger for the insight and comprehention of “constitutve otherness”
among the European and Turkish identities (İnaç 2010: 177). As it can be comprehended
easily this thesis refutes the Eurocentric way of thinking and the theory of cultural
evolutionary ladder drastically.
In this context, it isinevitable and essential to mention about he historical turning points and
the deviances and interruptions of socio-political conjontures which shaped the notion
modernisation within European historical perspective. As we expressed above, the historical
grouns and basis of the modern European culture and the essence of the European civilization
were attributed to Antique Greek “polis” unit (city state) (Delanty 2004: 45). The orudential
and rightful reason of this common consensus was the democracy experiment of Greek
culture. That was the first time in history. People came together in larger squares called as
“agora” and voted in direct way known as “plebiscite”. Greek people regarded to participate
into the political decision-making process as a matter of honour and respect even the meaning
of life. As a result of this logic, people took on mission and played role in administrative
body of Pleb Council rotatively and provided the contribution into the development of the
fact of democracy as a gift of humankind (Ağaoğulları 2009: 89). One another distinctive
feature of this period was the paganist and politheist faith system which led to emerge the
multiculturalism and tolerance agaist the differences.
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Nevertheless, Antique Greek culture gave way to Roman Sanctum Imperium which aimed to
create a universal Christian civilisation (Christendom). In this period, this Empire attempted
to unite the people under the universal papacy, to control the scientific development through
Inquisition composed by the selected members of the Curch. Thus, the thinking realm and
scientific instruction had been monopolized. Some words such as anathema, excommunicate,
indulgence have beeen invented and forged in order to exploit the innocent believers and a
privileged clerical class had been created. Scholastic thinking and patristic philosophy
constrained the free thinking. Nobody had a chnace to think and decide, everything about the
life and world was determined by the instructions and ideas of the patria potestas such as St.
Thomas Aquinas and St. Augustion.
In this period, people was passive, subject and found no way out to obey the proposals of the
Church (Ağaoğulları 2009: 64). For ordinary people, world is ambigious, obscure,
complicated and absconditus entity and so incomprehensible universe and period that is
called by Weber as “the period of mystification” (Weber 2011: 97-99). The distinguishable
events of the period were the emergence of the feudal society between 8-12th centuries.
Feudal society determined and shaped by the feudal contract between sub and upper
hierarchical positions which had equal right tor two sides to abolish the contract. In that case,
we can argue that some democratic tendencies partly prevailed and started to create some
democratic traditions (Bloch 2005: 64). Meanwhile, European continent was brutally invaded
by barbaric tribes and respectly, was suffered by the pope-emperor wars, the conflict of the
religous and worldly authorities, and the disputes of religion and sect. In this period, the
people could have some donated and given identities by pope and emporer which could be
taken back with arbitrary will.
Afterwards, the translation of Holy Book (Bible) into the national languages, and its sending
out different communities by means of printing house and by the influences of these books,
the deceitfulness and the explotation of the Churc had been exposed. In basle Council, the
clerical class couldn’t be settled on an agreement one papacy who will unite the Christian
world under one political auspices. In spite of unification, we witness the fragmentation of
the Christendom as national sects such as Anglicanism, Catholism, Calvinism with their
national churches and institutions. The establishment of these national churches became the
turning point in both the creation of nation-states with secular and the modern character and
both the prevalance of the Reformation movements. As a prolongation of these sequences of
events, instead of divinal religion based on the revelation, a different religious approach
depending upon the humanistic interpretations was preponderated. Moreover, the
humanisation of socio-political and religious scopes and the homo-centric thinking initiated
to be felt in every field of the life. The ordinary people turned into a logical and prudential
individual with the urbanization which means to immigrate people to work with industrial
areas aorund the factories.
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Thanks to these movements, the new greater cities have been established around the factories,
people could have an opportunity to work with diffenent jobs and identify themselves in
accordance with their jobs. That was the obtained and gained identities instead of the Middle
Ages donated identities. The shifting of the identification process led to the settlement of
democratic tendencies amaong the different segments of societies. Thus, the individual was
placed on the center of socio-political analysis in line with the rationalisation and
secularisation processes. Some new understanding and novelties such as the rationalism,
individualism, and the cartesian philosophy depended upon the scientific approach oriented
with the observation, experiment and concrete reality led to the emergence of the Renaissance
implies the revitalization of democracy experiment of Antiquity (Haviland 2002: 31). As a
matter of fact, at the end of the 14th century, Italian potbelly bosses precipitated the
commerce in costal Italian cities where free from the preassures of both popes and emporers
made the individualism prevailind and widespread.
After the conquest of Istanbul (Constantinople), in Italy where many scientists fled and
supported by the manifacturers and merchants in order to improve the technological
innovations, a kind of scientific class has been emerged and called as “scienta” (Ağaoğulları
2009: 172). The Enlightenment reflected itself into the notions demystification, selfrealisation and emancipation (Weber 2011: 74). As the main parameters of the
Enlightenment, the demystification refers to the power of humankind to explain totally and
change the world for his primary athropological necessities such as nutrition, sheltering and
fertility. In case of self-realisation, it is the demonstration of human capacity by grasping the
environmental realities in line with the proficiency and skills of the humankind. Lastly, the
notion emancipation points out the disruption of people with their traditional ties and
becoming free from the religious and authoritarian pressures.
Thanks to the rationalism, enlightenment, and developing technology, people focused on the
industry, manufacture, handicraft and immigrated form rural area to the urbanized and
industrialised centers and had an opportunity to create and define their individualistic
spheres. In that case, the individualism implies the realm consists of interests, necessities, and
demands distinguished and apart from the rest of the society’s common values, traditions and
tendencies where he or she born in. This individual sphere was so intimate and private that
nobody could intervene and violate (İnaç 2010: 163-164). In addition to the essential
constituents of the modernisation, as an expressional reflection for the self-confidence and
dignity of humankind, the notion “humanism” has been discovered as the shaping,
possession, prepondarence dominating and monitoring capacity of the nature and
environment in accordance with the hauman benefit (Haviland 2002: 94-96). As a conclusion,
this self-confidence arisen from the past historical experience we elaborated in this study led
to the appearance of the hegemonic narrative, culture-bound perception, Eurocentric
approach towards the world was inherited by modernity which made the societies
disciplinised and restricted entities. Nowadays communities depicted as the rest of the west
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attempt to discover their own traditions and local values and try to combine and harmonize
their own culture and history with the western modernity.
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424
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Extent
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1138
Title
A name given to the resource
The Historical Dynamics Of Modernizm: A Critical Perspective
Author
Author
Hüsamettin, İnaç
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
In recent decades, the modernism and modern socio-political analysis has been subjected to criticism in many respects. The ideas of the global, post-modern and post-industrial societies attempted to legimitize themselves over the criticism of the modern approach towards the economic, social, political and philosophical parameters of modern version. Due to the fact that the institutions, models, matrixes pertaining with the modern realm faded away one after the other, challenging and confrontation with modernizm was popularized. Nevertheless, many critical series of analysis remained as deficient, abortive and defective studies because many researchers had not adequate information and awareness about the dynamics of the modernism which was shaping the main character of modernism. Yet modernism just as the other movements of thought was directly relevant, related and bound to the time and space which produce them. In the light of this understanding, we attempted to elaborate the main historical dymanics and the socio-political ground which the modernizm had been created. We hope that this study demonstrates the intrinsic and essential trajectory which the modernism followed within the dark labyrinth of history in order to meet the expectations of alternative models of societies as an harbinger. Keywords: Modernism, modernisation, modern fallacy, social change, individualism, Eurocentrism, colonialism, rationalism
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
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Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
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GIS Integration And Evolution Into The Albanian System Education And Market
Hysenaj, M 1, Barjami, R. 2
1University of Shkodër, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Shkodër,
Albania
2University of Durrës, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Department of Economy, Durrës,
Albania
E –mails: medjonhysenaj@hotmail.com, rezartabarjami@hotmail.com
Abstract
This paper offers a general overview of GIS integration as a curricula and technology in the
Albanian Education System. Basically it presents the evolution history of this technology, the
development environment and the efforts of a closer approach to the state and private
institutions. A detailed analysis will be performed between the growing market needs in
Albania for GIS utilities and the handicap due to the lack of experts in geospatial technology.
Results of a questionnaire survey in the university areas will be presented, where students
expressed their approach to GIS technology. The need to build a complete chain of GIS
curricula beginning from secondary school level up to graduate and master programms is
necessary to be accomplished. Many problematic fields in Albania like flood management,
population census, transport, urbanization, pollution, turism, illegal constructions, professional orientation, etc which are subjects of topic interest in many universitary courses require
the use of GIS utilities. In this article it is discussed the position of GIS in the university
system and the major efforts departments must carry out in increasing interaction between
each other followed by a substantial intervention of the proper government institutions to the
benefit of GIS development. “Albania in the age of internet” is the latest reform the
government is implementing, with the scope of informing young people mainly in rural areas
to develop ICT infrastructure basically in public schools and state offices, which will have a
powerful impact in GIS developing technology in Albania.
Keywords: Gis, education, university, technology, department, curricula
1.INTRODUCTION
The role of higher education is to assist students in becoming effective thinkers with the
knowledge and skills that will lead them toward becoming meaningful contributors to society
[9]. Today, more and more schools are including GIS in their curricula to help their students
380
�gain valuable background knowledge and skills which they need to face global challenges.
Three are the main reasons GIS has known a rapid development in Albania especially in the
last years; education, internet and the growing market needs for geospatial data. For each of
these categories we are going to present a full picture containing their weak and strong points.
Meanwhile other countries had a faster approach to GIS technology, in Albania we found the
first signs of GIS usage about eighteen years ago. The first institution that decided to embrace
the implementation of a GIS system was the Science Geographic Academy of Albania in
1994, followed by the department of Geography near the University of Tirana in 1999 as a
single course part of the undergraduate program. Even though at a slow pace GIS profile has
evolved since then. Nowadays GIS is integrated as a single course in the undergraduate
program in the Universities of Shkodra and Gjirokastra in the departments of Geography,
Architecture and Urban Planning, Geodesy, Computer Sciences and Geology departments in
the university of Tirana, but it still remains part of the undergraduate program.
Once again the department of Geography in Tirana advanced forward by integrating GIS
subject as part of a graduate program at the Proffessional Master level. But we have to ask
ourself: Is that enough? How come that besides the great potential this technology affords,
the vast usage in some of the crucial sectors governments dispose, the known advantages in
the education field in enforcing group collaboration, increasing students creatitvity and
interactivity, offering methodologies in gathering, analyzing and outputting data, coming to
concrete results and conclusions, building complex reports and diagrams in a short time
period, helping decision-making and understanding situations, enlarging human knowledge in
an upper level, institutions in Albania are still doubtful in approaching this technology. Today
more than ever Albania is facing specific circumstances that require GIS implementation in
finding solutions and also helping decision-making.
2.GIS Education in Albania
Geographic Information Systems in higher education provide an integrated solution to assist
faculties and students with their educational goals. The advance of GIS has opened up
millions of employment opportunities. More than 3,000 colleges and universities have
developed excellent courses and certificate and degree programs in GIS [10]. GIS has a vast
extent starting from government level down to municipality or commune. In the state
universities of Albania GIS is introduced only as a single general course called Geographical
Information Systems, including this way a compressed program that many times results to be
inadequate to be acquired by students. The main reason of this phenomenon is the fact that
GIS is developed only at a single level in the Albanian Education Institutions which is the
381
�state university. The lack of the subject development at the secondary school level is the
primary reason of such a handicap. The major problem is the lack of geospatial information.
In Albania only few institutions have operational GIS databases. We are facing the fact that
mostly of geographic data is owned by private agencies for their personal needs, using
inconsistent data which is mostly not updated. Inadequate development of geospatial
technology is also closely connected with the evolution of computer science. In 2009, as
reported in Figure 1, among 9478 students graduated in public universities, only 171
belonged to computer science profile [5].
Figure 1: Computer Science attendance toward (compared) other fields
Still, it remains determinant the increasing role the government is playing through substantial
reforms which aim to develop internet utilities in a large scale environment in Albania. The
results are optimistic, during the last two years in the department of Informatic in the
University of Tirana the number of students applying for computer science increased from 70
to 500 students.
Departments can and should integrate into their annual programs GIS course. The stimulation
point can be succeeded by orienting GIS utilities into the current problematic situations.
Departments can find it easier te embrace geospatial technology as a solution possibility to
their barriers. Biology department can benefit from GIS by studying the degradation process
the lake of Shkoder is facing day after day, accompanied by radical changes in vegetation and
animal life. Geography department can better approach analysis to flood management in the
districts of Shkoder and Lezha. Inundations have become endemic to the region, causing
huge economic and social damages [8]. On the other side transport problems, pollution,
illegal construction, minerary, deforestation, urbanization, population census are only a few
of the many topics that can use GIS as an analytical tool in their specific scientific discipline
by the respective departments in the Albanian Universities.
Dealing with geospatial data is strictly connected with terrain practice. This way we can
develop students concept and knowledge about GIS structure and give a sense to their
theoretical conceptions. Unfortunately we have not reached this stage, which remarks us
382
�(specialists of the field) the essential task of digitizing the Albanian territory with updated
geospatial information [1]. First of all this process needs the government enrollment which
must be the primary support in fulfilling this mission basically by covering finanacial, logistic
and technical aspect. Second it is important the collaboration between universities and private
agencies offering their field experts. Actually laboratory practices are limited up to data
manipulation and not data creation. Which means that we do not have the proper conditions
to accomplish a full map process including data collection, data processing and output.
Another problematic situation students have to face is the lack of teaching materials. Actually
there are only a few books translated into Albanian language that address topics connected to
GIS. These books contain basic GIS principles, technical and management issues, remote
sensing, digital mapping.
A set of surveys, as shown in Figure 2 and 3, involving 1000 students were made. The
outcome of this surveys intended to define the relation between their approach toward GIS as
a concept and GIS utilities.
Figure 2: Results of approach toward Web Pages based on GIS Software
The results were very interesting. In the first survey students were asked to mention three of
their most used web sites. The top five were ranked. Interestingly “Google Map” is among
these web sites. Which means that students are looking forward to interact with dynamic
maps and not just navigate in the internet. Also these students where asked about their
knowledge of the term GIS. From the results we see that 87% of them didn’t know what GIS
meant, 11% were familiar to the concept and only 2% of them had the chance to use GIS
utilities. This is a meaningful contrast to the fact that students use GIS applications like
Google Map, Google Earth, etc but are not aware of the concept of dynamic maps.
383
�Figure 3: GIS integration into the University Environment
According to statistics it results that among many annual conferences that take place in
Albania none of them refers to Geographic Information Systems as a primary field or topic to
relay on. This induce the necessity of paying greater attention by the departments in
introducing step by step GIS as a modern and undisputed technology. Gradually it is
neccesary to start from several national conferences followed by international ones. Also
another issue is the fact that students prefer to avoid GIS profile subjects as a possible theme
during their master thesis (either professional or scientific) defending. So far no such thesis
has been deposited near the departments archive. This is another delicate point which requires
the intervention of the Ministry of Education (MASH).
3.GIS Exploitation Environment
The Albanian population and Housing census held in October 2011 after ten years from the
last one (2001) is another determinant factor in evolving geospatial technology. The overall
objective of the project is to contribute to the strengthening of the Albanian statistical system.
In Albania the need for a census is perhaps greater than anywhere else, and the extracted
information will be of great importance to many departments subjects like geography,
statistic, history, engineering, politic, etc. It will have an immediate effect on policies, but it
will also provide material for further profound studies. GIS is the perfect platform to hold,
manage and analyze all the data, also to produce important diagrams and reports reflecting
the geographical distribution of the population in Albania in the recent years. According to
statistics it is thought that during January 2011 Albanian finally passed from a rural to urban
country. There is also an important evolution in fertility, since on average families nowdays
have fewer children than before. The profound changes in the health system also have had its
effects on the age distribution. The outcome of the census will answer many important
questions on various issues. This way GIS turns out to be the perfect tool that will finally
integrate these data into dynamic maps which with allow us not only make parallelisms
384
�between periods but also produce better results in comparison to the previous used softwares
like Excel, etc.
After flood inundation in Shkoder during 2010, 2011 from the World Bank has been granted
a fund of €50.000 for the construction of the laboratory of researches for natural hazards
management which will be administrated by the department of Geography in the University
of Shkoder. The scope of the laboratory is intended not only for research, acquisition,
integration, management, analysis and presentation of spatial data but also to provide for the
students suitable conditions for developing their theoretical and practical background on
advanced GIS technologies. This is the first project to be initiated under the survey of an
academic institution for an important issue such as flood rather than any government unit.
This trend aims to be a future incentive for other departments to create a parallel operating
level system with those supervised by the ministery. On the other hand it puts in evidence the
need for re-training teachers to integrate their concepts and technology into the spatial
decision process.
4.GIS Market in Albania
In Albania, as shown in Figure 4, there are 38 private universities and 11 state universities
which make a total of 49 universities for a population of 3.2 million. According to statistics
[5] for the last 10 years more than 65 thousand students graduated but only 16 thousand could
get employed. This category tend to manage mainly through small private business activities
in a competitive environment which requires high qualification and effective performance in
retreiving valuable information from the sorrounding area, save traces of where customers or
other competitive businesses are distributed, plan a marketing campaign, optimize sales
territory, etc. Due to this situation GIS course turns out to be a sustainable support to their
background knowledges which will lead them to a successful performance.
GIS allows interactivity, querying, makes us understand better and evaluate the data by
creating graphical presentation through information derived from databases [1]. The
economic crisis that has affected the world in recent years has made it possible for many
organizations to restructure their operating practices. Many of these businesses are aware of
finding new ways to develop their activities, primarily through internal sources. Now is the
time to invest in geographic information systems, a solution that has helped many
organizations to overcome their operational challenges and increase profits.
385
�Figure 4: Private University development (2003-2011)
Source: INSTAT
According to statistics only in private universities we find 229 curriculas included into
different levels of programs like Bachelor, Master of Science or Proffesional Master. The
contrast in this scenario is that during the last five years the number of private universities in
Albania has almost decuplicated but none of them offers a GIS course.
Many of the Albanian private universities have close connections with homologue Europian
Universities including student professional exchange, mutual experience exchange, revealing
a clear tendency in strictly approaching their way of management and administration of the
study process. Despite everything it is clearly visible their policy consists in avoiding
geoscience subjects. Regardless their vision they stand as business institutions which try to
find the best products to offer to the market. Being the first to understand the major market
needs, private institutions insist in neglecting GIS potential in the Albanian mart. They focus
on social and economic curriculas which actually are easier to integrate and adopt rather than
hazard to involve students into a course that still suffers from government indifference in
launching this “product” on the market and at the same time simulate private companies in
embracing the idea of GIS position.
This scenario reflects their pessimistic point of view according to GIS technology. Their
choice not to introduce GIS into their curricula makes us believe that although GIS usage in
Albania has evolved and has found more space in the Albanian market than before, private
university boards are still doubtful of its real capabilities and potential.
386
�Up to now Albanian market has been handled from a range of people that have been a kind of
“forced-adopted” experts in environment conditions who suffered from the lack of real geoinformatic experts. That’s why very often geospatial tasks have been performed from
geographers who had little informatic knowledge or vice-versa from technic informaticians
who held the responsibility to manipulate and manage geographic information, producing a
range of non-professional results.
Nowadays the market in Albania is eager in finding new human resources specialised in
geospatial information management which can help them solve many important issues getting
away from simple techniques used lately. The Digital Albania program is one of the many
future projects that require GIS experts. State institutions like the prefecture, municipality,
commune, private organizations and many other NPO’s are more than ever aware about the
great importance of dynamic maping and satellite imageries, followed by the integration of
these concepts and technology into the spatial decision making processes in the country.
Especially last years Albanian institutions faced a vigorous interaction with Europian
agencies. Many funds have been granted with the scope of developing research projects
towards problematics affecting Albania. Many of these projects need accurate data of the
territory mainly geospatial information. This leads to an increasing demand for dynamic
maps and as a result of GIS utilities.
5.Internet Evolution
The evolution of GIS in Albanian has been strictly connected to the evolution of Internet. The
number of Internet users is an important indicator because it reflects the spread of
information technology in one place, and information exchange globally [1]. Actually
Albanian government is following a strong policy named “Albania in the age of the internet”,
which aims to push Albania among the countries with the highest internet usage in Europe.
This has caused an immediate affect not only in the extend of internet distribution but also in
laboratory equipments. Internet conditions as speed, availability, price and professionalism
had a great improvement. Also almost all secondary schools have been equipped with new
laboratories. This has caused a closer approach to the internet as far as the students are
concerned, and online softwares like “Google Earth”, “Google Map”, or Esri applications
which only a couple of years ago were unknown for many people, now have turned familiar,
easy to use and manage.
387
�The World Economic Forum (WEF) has published a global report according to which
Albania has improved its global ranking of The Networked Readiness Index 2012 by 19
places within a year positioning itself in the 68-th place gaining the right ta be part among the
ten most improved countries in the NRI. This index has been calculated based on four
primary sub-indexes which are: the regulatory-politic for the information technology,
improvement of digital infrastructure; management of e-skills and services; using information
technology by the population, biznes or government units; social and economic impact.
Technology primary sub-index sectors (Comparative level 2011-2012)
Rank
Increase
Political and regulatory environment for the information technology, infrastructure
Management of e-skills and services
13
24
Using information technology by the population, biznes or government units
17
Social and economic impact of the technology
18
Figure 5: Technology profile sectors, increase position, (2011-2012)
Source: World Economic Forum: Albania
The Internet and Communication Technology sector is rapidly expanding in Albania because
it is both a stand-alone sector as well as a cross-cutting enabling technology for other
industries [11]. Basically we have the neccesary tools to aim at developing GIS image in the
market and institutional levels. Another element of minor impact in the development of GIS
technology is the integration of GPS systems through a law recently approved in Albania by
which the custom duties for cars has been removed. This way the percentage of imported cars
produced recent years has increased rapidly, most of these cars have GPS systems included.
6.CONCLUSIONS
Due to many indicative factors in the past geospatial technology missed the evolution
backbone in Albania. The integration process walked through small steps which didn’t show
to be determinant. The set of surveys show that the environment is ready for approaching this
technology. Conditions are already mature, the increasing role the government is playing
through substantial reforms toward internet extension, the vast expansion of educative
institutions like private universities followed by the growing market needs for geospatial data
and experts, creates the perfect circumstances for a sustainable GIS development.
On the other hand the primary role in the integration process must be played by public
universities. A series of steps need to be taken, beginning from a deeper interest from MASH
in giving the right priority by increasing universities funds in building modern GIS
laboratory, which is the backbone to start every GIS project in the future. By doing this
universities have the obligation to increase collaboration between each other for the benefit of
388
�GIS development. It is necessary to build a continuos chain of GIS curriculum programs
starting from secondary school, followed by several courses during undergraduate and
especially graduate programs, ending with a closer approach of the students side during their
thesis defending. To achieve a full education process a final step must be taken, including
these students in training programms near GIS departments in countries with more experience
in the field. Only by accomplishing this cicle we will be able to set the knowledge of these
students into a higher level and make them able to build the future platform of Albanian GIS
experts.
REFERENCES
Hysenaj, M., Geographical Information Systems, Shkoder, Albania, 2011.
Johansson, T., GIS in Teacher Education – Facilitating GIS Applications in Secondary
School Geography, 2010, pp. 66-67.
Tempus, Final Report: Higher Education in Albania, 2010, pp. 23-27.
Open Data Albania, January 15, 2012, http://open.data.al.
Institute of Statistics Albania, January 23, 2012, http://www.instat.gov.al/.
Cabuk A., Ayday, C., GIS Education in Turkey, 2004, pp. 90-91.
Kerski J., Developments in Technologies and Methods in GIS In Education, 2008, pp. 35-38.
Nikolli, P., Idrizi, B., Geodetic and Cartographic Education in Albania, 2007, pp. 72-75.
Esri, GIS in Education: http://www.eagle.co.nz/GIS/Training/GIS-in-Education/.
Education and Science: http://www.gis.com/content/education-and-science.
http://www.rritjealbania.com
389
�
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GIS Integration And Evolution Into The Albanian System Education And Market
Author
Author
Hysenaj,
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
This paper offers a general overview of GIS integration as a curricula and technology in the Albanian Education System. Basically it presents the evolution history of this technology, the development environment and the efforts of a closer approach to the state and private institutions. A detailed analysis will be performed between the growing market needs in Albania for GIS utilities and the handicap due to the lack of experts in geospatial technology. Results of a questionnaire survey in the university areas will be presented, where students expressed their approach to GIS technology. The need to build a complete chain of GIS curricula beginning from secondary school level up to graduate and master programms is necessary to be accomplished. Many problematic fields in Albania like flood management, population census, transport, urbanization, pollution, turism, illegal constructions, professional orientation, etc which are subjects of topic interest in many universitary courses require the use of GIS utilities. In this article it is discussed the position of GIS in the university system and the major efforts departments must carry out in increasing interaction between each other followed by a substantial intervention of the proper government institutions to the benefit of GIS development. “Albania in the age of internet” is the latest reform the government is implementing, with the scope of informing young people mainly in rural areas to develop ICT infrastructure basically in public schools and state offices, which will have a powerful impact in GIS developing technology in Albania. Keywords: Gis, education, university, technology, department, curricula
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
-
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/04a30e209db71dbc02ad3fb5f7261d6f.pdf
35dbf12ce1b11dcb1786b97e1ba1aeef
PDF Text
Text
3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Gregory Cannor, Robert A. Korajczyk, (1992), The Arbitrage Pricing Theory and
Multifactors Models of Asset Returns.
Gur Huberman, Zhenyu Wang, (2005), Arbitrage Pricing Theory.
Harry Markowitz, (1952), Portfolio Selection.
James L. Davis, (2001), Explaining Stock Returns: A Literature Survey.
John Y. Campbell, Motohiro Yogo, (2006), Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability.
Jonathan W. Lewellen, (2000), On the Predictability of Stock Returns: Theory and Evidence.
Robert C. Merton, (1973), An Intemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model.
Internet Sources
www.wkipedia.org
www.portfoliosolutions.com/f-11.html
http://www.investopedia.com
http://www.bionicturtle.com/forum/threads/p1-t1-64-arbitrage-pricing-model-apt-versuscapm.5328/
The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey
Huseyin Kalyoncu1, Ilhan Ozturk2, Muhittin Kaplan1
1Meliksah University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 38010, Kayseri,
Turkey.
2Cag University, Faculty of Economics and Business,33800, Mersin, Turkey.
Email: hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr, ilhanozturk@cag.edu.tr, mkaplan@meliksah.edu.tr
Abstract
This paper attempts to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship and causality
between energy consumption and economic growth during 1960-2006 period for Turkey.
Johansen and Juselius cointegration method and vector error correction model (VECM) have
been employed to examine this issue. After finding cointegration among variables, a VECM is
estimated and the Granger causality tests were carried out based on a VECM. The results have
shown that there is no short-run causality in both energy consumption and GDP models. The
results also confirmed that there is unidirectional long-run causality among variables of
interest and the direction of long-run causality is running from per capita GDP to per capita
energy consumption. As a result, conservation hypothesis which postulates unidirectional
causality from economic growth to energy consumption is confirmed for Turkey. Taken
together, these empirical findings involve valuable information for policy makers.
Keywords: Energy consumption, Economic growth, Causality, Turkey
20
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
JEL classification: C3, O4, Q43
1. INTRODUCTION
The topic of causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been
well-studied in the energy economics literature for both developing and developed countries.
The causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has important
policy implications. Hence, several studies have attempted to establish the relationship
between energy consumption and economic growth1. A general observation from these
studies is that the results have been mixed and it can be concluded that, almost all types of
causality results have been reported in the literature. The directions that the causal
relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has could be categorized into
four testable hypothesizes within the literature. First, the “neutrality hypothesis” suggests the
absence of a causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. Second,
the “conservation hypothesis” postulates unidirectional causality from economic growth to
energy consumption. Third, the “growth hypothesis” asserts unidirectional causality from
energy consumption to economic growth. Fourth, the “feedback hypothesis” emphasizes the
bidirectional relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in which
causation runs in both directions (Squalli, 2007).
There are few studies in which the energy consumption-growth nexus have been examined for
Turkey. Soytas et al. (2001) found that causality is running from energy consumption to
growth. However, the causality is running from economic growth to energy consumption
according to the study of Lise and Van Montfort (2007). On the other hand, while
bidirectional causality is confirmed in the study of Erdal et al. (2008), no causality is
investigated in the studies of Altinay and Karagol (2004), and Soytas and Sari (2009). Thus,
there is no consensus on the causality between energy consumption and growth for Turkey.
It is not possible to conclude definitely the direction of causality between energy consumption
and economic growth. However, it is known that this causality is of major importance for
effective energy policy design and implementation. A country that is energy dependent will
have a cautious energy policy because any negative shock on energy supply will have
negative effects on economic growth. On the other hand, in an economy where energy
consumption is determined by economic growth an energy conservation policy will have very
little affect on economic growth (Ouedraogo and Diarra, 2010).
The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship and causality between energy
consumption and economic growth in Turkey for the 1960-2006 period by using Johansen and
Juselius cointegration method and vector error correction model. The results obtained in this
study are dependent on the sample period, the variables used and the methodology employed.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows: The next section describes the data and
methodology. Section 3 presents the results from empirical analysis. Section 4 concludes the
paper.
2. Methodology
The relationship between energy consumption and GDP has been discussed in detail in the
empirical literature. However, the results of the empirical studies provide mixed results on the
existence of causality and the direction of causality. The existence of cointegration
1 See Ozturk (2010) for detailed literature survey on energy-growth nexus.
21
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
relationship between energy consumption and GDP is taken as evidence that there is close
relationship between these variables. Then, the direction of causality has been investigated. In
this study, we will examine the relationship between energy consumption and GDP estimating
vector error correction model (VECM). The VECM representations of energy model can be
written as:
(1)
(2)
where,
represent the natural logarithm of energy consumption per capita
and reel GDP per capita respectively. ECT represents error-correction term and is the usual
error term.
The advantage of this formulation and estimation procedure is that it allows a straightforward
test of the direction and the source of causality. Using the VECM, we can test the long-run
and short-run causality between per capita energy consumption and GDP per capita. The
existence of short-run causality meaning that the dependent variable responds only to shortterm socks can be determined by testing the null hypothesis of
in equation (1) and
in equation (2). To determine whether energy consumption cause economic growth
/or visa vice in the long-run, we look at the coefficients on the ECT’s in equations (1) and (2).
While the size of the coefficients on ECT indicates how fast deviations from long-run
equilibrium are eliminated, the significance of these coefficients implies the presence of longrun causality among energy consumption and economic growth. We can also determine
whether these two sources of causality are jointly significant by testing the joint hypothesis of
in equation (1) and
in equation (2). The
rejections of the joint hypothesis imply that following a shock to the system, both these
sources of causation are responsible for the re-establishment of long-run equilibrium.
3. Data and Empirical Results
All data are annually and gathered from the World Development Indicators (2008), Central
Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) electronic data delivery system, IMF’s International
Financial Statistics (IFS) website. The series employed in this study are per capita energy
consumption (lepc) and per capita real GDP (lpcgdp) and sample period is from 1960-2006
for Turkey. Table 1 provides descriptive statistics of the data used in the study. Per capita
energy consumption is expressed in terms of kg of oil equivalent and obtained from the World
Development Indicators (2008). The real GDP series is expressed in 1987 constant billion TL
(local currency) and obtained from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT)
electronic data delivery system (www.tcmb.gov.tr). Per capita GDP series are obtained from
dividing real GDP series by population which is taken from IMF’s International Financial
Statistics website. All series are expressed in logarithms.
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of Data
Variables
Mean
Standard deviation
Median
Maximum
Minimum
PCEC
777.2
267.6
739.0
1304.0
274.0
22
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
PCGDP
Observations
1288.9
388.8
1183.4
2160.3
702.1
47
47
47
47
47
Note: PCEC stands for the per capita energy consumption (in kg oil equivalent); PCGDP is per
capita GDP at 1987 constant Turkish Liras (TL).
The results obtained from preliminary analysis of data and estimation of the VECM equation
(1) and (2) on the causal relationship between per capita energy consumption and per capita
GDP are presented in this section. It become customary to check unit root of time series
before carrying out econometric analysis of the data since non-stationary regressors invalidate
most of the standard empirical results. For this reason, we first establish the level of
integration of the series using both the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Phillips and
Perron (1988) (PP) unit root test tests. After establishing that series are I(1), we can proceed
to test for a long-run relationship between the series. The existence of the long-run
cointegration relationship among per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP will be
tested using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method of Johansen and Juselius
(1990). If the cointegration relationship is found, then a VECM given above will be estimated
and related test of causality will be carried out.
We first perform unit root tests in levels and first differences in order to determine univariate
properties of the series used in this study. We, therefore, use the classical unit root tests,
namely, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) (see Dickey and Fuller, 1981; Said and Dickey,
1984) and PP unit root tests (see Phillips and Perron, 1988). The number of lags in the ADF
regressions is determined by using the Schwarz Information Criteria (SIC). Table 2 provides
the results obtained from the ADF and the PP tests over the sample period for the levels and
first differences of variables. The test results shows that while the hypothesis of a unit root in
levels cannot be rejected, it was rejected in first differences at the 1% level suggesting that the
variables are difference stationary, I(1) variable. This is true for both the ADF and PP test
statistics.
Table 2: Unit Root Test Results
Variables
ADF Statistics
PP test Statistics
Level
First difference
Level
First difference
Lepc
-0.9724
-13.7671*
-0.8301
-12.1625*
Lpcgdp
-0.3770
-7.5360*
-0.3409
-7.5327*
1% Critical Value
-3.5811
-3.5811
-3.5811
-3.5847
5% Critical Value
-2.9266
-2.9266
-2.9266
-2.9281
10% Critical Value
-2.6014
-2.6014
-2.6014
-2.6022
Note: (*) indicate 1% level of significance
Having established that all variables are integrated of the same order , we proceed with the
Johansen multivariate cointegration tests, which allow us to test for long run relationship
among the per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP. Before undertaking
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
cointegration tests, let us first specify the relevant order of lags of the vector autoregression
(VAR) model. In determination of the relevant order of lags used in the VAR model, we used
the Hannan-Quinn (HQI) information criterion, the Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) and
Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Table 3 presents the results on lag specification.
According to all of the lag selection criteria, the number of lags was determined as one.
Table 3. Selection of Lags
Number of Lags
HQI criterion
AIC criterion
SIC criterion
1
-7.825731*
-7.9163*
-7.6706*
2
-7.621177
-7.7722
-7.3626
3
-7.389001
-7.6004
-7.0270
4
-7.159026
-7.4308
-6.6936
Note: * indicates lag order selected by the criterion. HQI, AIC and SIC stands for:
Hannan-Quinn information criterion, Akaike information criterion and
Schwarz information criterion respectively.
Table 4 provides the cointegration test results obtained from the Johansen and Juselius (1990)
method for the energy model. In the JJ method, two tests are used to determine the number of
cointegrating vectors (r): the trace test and the maximum eigenvalue test. In the trace test, the
null hypothesis is that the number of cointegrating vectors is less than or equal to r, where r is
0, 1, or 2. In each case, the null hypothesis is tested against a general alternative. In the
maximum eigenvalue test, the null hypothesis r = 0 is tested against the alternative that r = 1, r
= 1 against the alternative r = 2, etc.
The results show that the null hypothesis of no cointegration, i.e., r=0 is rejected by both the
maximum eigenvalue and the trace statistics since both of these statistics are greater than
corresponding critical values. Also, the null of r=1 cannot be rejected in favor of r=2. These
results confirm the conclusion that there is only one cointegrating relationship amongst the
two variables. Cointegration vector normalized with per capita energy consumption is found
to be 1, -0.506, and 1.099.
Table 4: Johansen-Juselius Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Tests results
Trace Test
Null
Alternative
Statistic
r=0
r≥1
31.1547*
r≤1
r≥2
0.0122
Maximum Eigenvalue Test
Critical
Values
Null
Alternative
Statistic
r=0
r=1
31.1426*
r≤1
r=2
0.0121
15.4947
3.8414
Critical
Values
14.2646
3.8414
Notes: Asterisks (*) denotes statistical significance at 5%. r stands for the number of cointegrating vectors.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
After we determined that per capita energy consumption and per capita GDP series are
cointegrated, we can proceed to test causality among these variables estimating a VECM.
Different from the VAR model, VECM allows us to investigate both the short-run and longrun causality as well as joint causality of both long-run and short-run causality. The results of
the causality tests based on the VECM are presented in Table 5. The examination of the table
shows a number of important results on the causal relationship between per capita energy
consumption and per capita reel GDP.
Table 5. Granger causality test
Dependent Variable
Sources of Causation (Independent Variable)
Short-run
Long-run
ECT
lpcgdp
lepc
lpcgdp
lepc
(
24.923*
0.905
1.250
Joint
lpcgdp and ECT)
Joint
(
lepc and ECT)
12.784*
0.497
0.634
Note: Asterisk (*) denotes statistical significance at 1% level of significance
The coefficient on lagged GDP term in the per capita energy equation and lagged per capita
energy term in GDP equation are statistically not significant event at 10% level. These imply
that there is no short-run causal relationship between per capita consumption and per capita
GDP.
In addition, the coefficient on the error-correction term (ECT) for the per capita energy
consumption is statistically significant at 1% level in which its t-value equals to -4.99 and its
size is equal to -0.5633 implying that adjustment coefficients are fairly high and deviations
from the long-run equilibrium are eliminated rapidly. The coefficient on the error-correction
term (ECT) in the per capita GDP equation (which is equal to -0.071 with t-value of -0.71) is
however statistically significant at 10% level of significance. Taken these two findings
together, the results imply that per capita real GDP variable is weakly exogenous and there is
unidirectional long-run causality between lepc and lpcgdp running from lpcgdp to lepc.
Furthermore, while the joint hypothesis that the coefficients on the ECT and the interaction
terms are jointly zero is rejected at 1% level in the per capita energy equation, the
corresponding hypothesis in the per capita real GDP equation could not be rejected at 10%
level. These findings provide further support for the results that there is unidirectional longrun causality between lepc and lpcgdp and the causality is running from real GDP per capita
to per capita energy consumption. As a result, conservation hypothesis which postulates
unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption is confirmed for
Turkey. Thus, energy consumption is determined by economic growth and energy
conservation policy will have very little affect on economic growth in Turkey.
Finally, considering the evidences provided in Table 5 together, it can be argued that there is
only a long-run causality between per capita energy consumption and per capita real GDP but
there is no short-run causality.
25
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
4. CONCLUSION
This paper attempted to investigate the causal relationship between per capita energy
consumption and per capita GDP employing vector error correction model (VECM) for
Turkey. After finding cointegration among variables, a VECM is estimated and the Granger
causality tests were carried out based on a VECM. The results have shown that there is no
short-run causality in both per capita energy and GDP models. However, the coefficient on
the ECT term for per capita energy equation is negative and statistically significant implying
the presence of long-run causality among variables of interest. The results also confirmed that
there is unidirectional long-run causality among variables of interest and the direction of longrun causality is running from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption since the
ECT’s coefficient in the GDP equation is insignificant. This result was also confirmed by the
findings obtained from the joint hypothesis that the coefficients on the ECT and the
interaction terms are jointly zero. As a result, conservation hypothesis which postulates
unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption is confirmed for
Turkey. Thus, energy conservation policy will have very little affect on economic growth.
Taken together, these empirical findings involve valuable information for policy makers.
It is well known that causality issue between energy consumption and GDP is of major
importance for effective energy policy design and implementation. For policy purposes, the
presence of long-run unidirectional causal relationship between per capita energy and per
capita GDP imply that energy consumption per head will increase in parallel with the level of
economic activity and hence it is very important to secure energy resources to achieve
sustainable economic growth.
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Erdal, G., Erdal, H., Esengun, K., 2008. The causality between energy consumption and
economic growth in Turkey. Energy Policy 36(10), 3838–3842.
Johensen, S., Juselius, K. 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on
cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and
Statistics 52, 169-210.
Lise, W., Van Montfort, K. 2007. Energy consumption and GDP in Turkey: is there a cointegration relationship? Energy Economics 29, 1166–1178.
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Ozturk, I., 2010. A literature survey on energy–growth nexus. Energy Policy 34(1), 340-349.
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Facilitating Competitiveness and Change in the Global Environment Proceedings. Global
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challenges faced by an EU candidate member. Ecological Economics 68(6), 1667-1675.
''Sustainable Development Projects as Opportunity for Economic Development of
Bosnia and Herzegovina''
Ajdin Perčo, Erkan Ilgun
International Burch University, Faculty of Economics
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mails: ajdin_tesanj@hotmail.com
Abstract
The global climate changes as a worldwide phenomena are on the top of the agenda of most
states and international organizations. The adverse effects we currently feel and even worst
things to come are stressing the need for action and firm resolution of this problem. In this
sense, the need for ‘’environment friendly’’ energy is becoming top priority and renewable
energy sources are in high demand. Furthermore, many countries are noticing this as a
development potential and are investing in this sector. One of these countries is Bosnia and
Herzegovina with its unlimited natural resources including wind, water etc. This paper will
analyze ongoing and planed projects in the area of renewable energy and economic benefits
Bosnia and Herzegovina will experience from it. Furthermore, after the adoption of Kyoto
Protocol and creation of state agency Bosnia and Herzegovina is now eligible to apply for
CDM (Clean Development Projects). These projects are financed by developed countries and
are to be implemented in developing countries. It goes without saying that this is enormous
opportunity for Bosnian companies and agencies to apply for these projects and bring foreign
investments that will boost domestic economy. Besides this, the journey of Bosnia and
Herzegovina towards European Union is requiring various laws to be adopted and
implemented. One of these laws are rules and regulations related to the various aspects of
climate changes and ways on how to combat climate changes. Financial incentives that
European Union is providing to ‘’green energy’’ companies and renewable energy sources are
additional motivation for Bosnia and Herzegovina to develop this are furthermore. Thereby in
this paper I will address the current issue of climate changes and the need for renewable
energy sources. Special focus will be on Bosnia and Herzegovina and the opportunities for
economic development available through investing and working on ‘’green energy’’ and
renewable energy projects. I will analyze current projects and future planned projects and
their impact on economic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The focus of the research
will be on various documents, projects and analysis currently available for this purpose. The
main finding is that Bosnia and Herzegovina is truly a country with great potential for
investments in renewable energy projects and the research paper will provide abundance of
arguments for this statement.
27
�
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1309
Title
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The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey
Author
Author
Huseyin , Kalyoncu
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
This paper attempts to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship and causality between energy consumption and economic growth during 1960-2006 period for Turkey. Johansen and Juselius cointegration method and vector error correction model (VECM) have been employed to examine this issue. After finding cointegration among variables, a VECM is estimated and the Granger causality tests were carried out based on a VECM. The results have shown that there is no short-run causality in both energy consumption and GDP models. The results also confirmed that there is unidirectional long-run causality among variables of interest and the direction of long-run causality is running from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption. As a result, conservation hypothesis which postulates unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption is confirmed for Turkey. Taken together, these empirical findings involve valuable information for policy makers. Keywords: Energy consumption, Economic growth, Causality, Turkey JEL classification: C3, O4, Q43
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance