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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Kaufman, R.K., Bradford, A., Belanger,L.H.,Mclaughlin,J.P. and Miki, Y.(2008)
“Determinats of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior”, Energy Economics,
Vol.20, No.2, pp.333-351
McMillan, J.(1992) Games, Strategies and Managers, Oxford University press
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) www.opec.org
Panayatou, T. “ OPEC as a model for cooper exporters: Potential gains and cartel Behavior
Smith, J.L (2005) “Inscrutable OPEC: Behavioral Test of Cartel Hypothesis”, The Energy
Journal, Vol.26, No.1, pp.51-82

Cooperation and competition in Information Technology Business: Case of ICT firms in
Konya
M. Atilla Aricioğlu1,Deniz Göktaş2, Birol Mercan2
1Department of Business Administration, Konya University,Konya, Turkey
2Department of Economics, Konya University, Konya, Turkey
E –mails: maaricioglu@gmail.com, d.goktas@gmail.com, birolmercan@gmail.com
Abstract
The notion of clusters has been attracted increasing interest from academics and business
practitioners for two decades. The theory and research emphasize their strong and positive
influence in promoting industrial development, innovation, and competitiveness and
economic growth. Thus clusters, become a useful policy instrument in regional innovation
systems (RIS) aiming to promote sustainable regional growth. Related literature suggests that
competitive clusters provide a fertile and conducive business environment for companies to
collaborate with research institutions, suppliers, customers and competitors located in the
same geographical area. They are becoming powerful engines of economic development and
drivers. Not all industries can create opportunities for employment, but of which share
knowledge and transfer technology both directly and through upstream and downstream
linkages with other relevant sectors. Not only they move their production facilities, they also
intend to transfer their research and development units from those favorable regions which
have relatively higher stage of development than the others in terms of infrastructure
facilities, education and training institutions, stable incentives, subsidiary potential, and the
presence of other multinational enterprises.
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The informatics sector can provide a foundation for the growth of industrial activity in a
developing economy. Therefore, as an example of high-tech clusters and potentially highvalue added sectors in developing countries, in-depth analysis of the informatics sector with
its hardware suppliers as a whole can shed light on the question of how a developing country
can structure its strategies to be able to upgrade and be competitive over time. In recent years,
Turkey has made an effort as a major player in the global informatics sector. Owing to its
skilled labor/brain force, rapid growth and market potential, Turkey has gained tremendous
attention of the informatics sector since 1980s. According to a survey of a city of Konya
sample, innovation attitudes the company managers operating in the IT sector has been
measured. In line with this purpose survey of firms in Konya Teknokent has been conducted.
Keywords: Cluster, Innovation, Konya, IT, Competition
1.INTRODUCTION
In our age, globalization reshapes the social, economic and political sphere. In a changing
world economic beliefs and paradigms are changing. One of the changing beliefs in business
is the pattern of competition. Traditional cost oriented competition patterns replaced with
quality and innovation based patterns. Until 1990’s cost oriented theories like comparative
advantage, dominate the competition theory both in international context and inter firm
level.Since 1990’s quality and innovation oriented theories has complemented the cost
oriented models. Porter (1990)emphasizes geographical proximity as a key to gain
competitive advantage through cost advantages. Geographic proximity provides several
advantages for firms and industries. Firstly, geographical proximity means a face to face
interaction among firms and between firms and organizations. Second it facilities the creation
of social capital, common language and common culture. Thirdly, flow of information and
exchange of tacit knowledge is easier under geographic proximity. In addition, diffusion of
knowledge spill overs and academic research is easier when firms are close to academic
organizations. Thus inter firm or inter organization cooperation is important besides the
competition between them. In the proposed new competitive models, cooperation is seen
productive than rivalry.Cluster theory which is coined to explain advantages of geographical
proximity in case of collaboration and sufficient factor endowment. This study is an attempt
to explore clustering trends of Konya ICT industry.
2.Cooperation and Cluster for Gaining Advantage
Beyond possessing physical resources and assets, firms should manage the cooperative
process in order to survive and operate in business sphere (Raco, Mike, 1999). In other words
firms must learn cooperating while they are competing against each other. This kind of
cooperation is strategic because it enables benefiting from main business activities, product
lines and technological diversity (Garcia, Cristina Q. and Velasco, Carlos A. B., 2000). A
vast of studies that were carried on competition literature attempted to explain pattern of
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competition in micro, mezzo or macro level.Despite various applying methods and tools,
there have been no consensuses on the concept of competition(Çivi, E. 2001). Clustering has
been commonly accepted as a method, a tool and approach to competition since the
beginning of 1990s. Although there are many definitions of clusters, most comprehensive one
is Porter’s definition. Porter(2000) defines clusters:
Clusters are geographic concentrations of interconnected companies, specialized suppliers,
service providers, firms in related industries, and associated institutions (e.g., universities,
standards Agencies, trade associations) in a particular field that compete but also
cooperate.(Porter, 2000:15)
First point in this definition is geographic concentration of companies and their relations with
each other and non-firm institutions. Firms have connections either horizontal (supplier and
provider) or vertical (related industries and associated institutions.) Second emphasis is the
cooperation of competing firms. Thirdly, companies in a particular field (specific market or
industry) should concentrate.
Studies on clustering mostly focus on qualified workforce, information providers, physical
infrastructures and sustainability. They concluded that these components would attract
international companies to the region and provide region a competitive advantage.
(Avnimelech, G. &amp; Schwartz, D. &amp; Bar-El, R 2007, Haan, U. 2008, Parto, S. 2008, Brenner,
T. &amp;Gildner, A. ,2006., Lazonick, W. ,2008,. Narula, R. &amp; Marin, A. 2005)
In the clustering literature, Porter’s works shed light to other studies which emphasized on
aspects above. It has been known that the coined approach was widely attracted attention in
international context.
3.Porter’s Diamond Model
Porter (2000) introduces four aspects that have influence on the competitive advantage for
firms. These four aspects, (i) factor(input) conditions, (ii) demand conditions,(iii)context for
firm’s strategy and rivalry (iv) relating and supporting industries are the four corners of
diamond. Porter employed this model for determining which firms and industries have
competitive advantage and role relating and supporting industries. This theory encourages
the further exploration of clustering. The model givesan insight to detect which industries
locate which regions.

Chance

298

Context for
Firm Strategy
and Rivalry

Demand
Conditions

Factor(Input)
Conditions

Related and
Supporting
Industries

Figure.1. Porter’sDiamond Model

Government

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Analysis of Konya ICT Sector in Clustering Level with Diamond Model
A Survey on Firms in Konya Technopolis
Konya techno polis is chosen for assessing the situation of ICT industry and for analyzing the
competition in this industry.
4.Objectives and Methodology
Objective of the study is exploring the competitive advantage of software firms and detecting
their clustering level. In line with these objectives Porter’s Diamond Model is used as
analytical tool. Great majority of the surveyed ICT firms operate in Konya techno polis.
There are 62 software firms in the city, 53 of them are operating in technopolis. Sample of 34
firms surveyed by questionnaires which asks 20 Likert type questions based on Diamond
theory. The level of clustering is measured by scale of 10. The questionnaire is derived from
DTM methodology which is built up for clustering map of Turkey.
5.Results
5.1.Factor Conditions
Location of Firms: Selchuk University Centre of Technology Advancement was established
in TGB-1 and TGB-2 regions. The center has 332,000 meter square area. It locate besides
the Selcuk University Campus, its distance from centrum is 20 km, 8 km from Industry
district of Konya, 8 km from Konya Airport and 5 km from bus station. Elmas Blok
(Diamond Block) in the Selçuk Campus which has 2000 meter square area has been in use
since 2004. Surveyed ICT firms ranked 5th among 38 centers of Technology Advancement in
Turkey. The techno polis is operating by a governance principle and it has been established
by the cooperation of Selcuk University, Foundation of Selcuk University, Konya Chamber
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of Industries, Konya Chamber of Commerce, Konya Commerce Market and the Directorate
of Konya Industrial District. It also supports the university-industry collaboration.
Firms operating in tecnopolis have opportunity to improve their technology and outputs by
utilizing infrastructure and knowledge base. Thus they are improving their competitiveness.
There are 109 firms in technopolis of which 64 firms engage in software developing
activities.
Due to ICT firms locate in technopolis, they have geographical proximity to public
institutions, university, R&amp;D centers.
Human Capital:Selcuk University is one of the great universities in Turkey, with having 21
faculties, 6 institutes, 23 vocational schools, 1 conservatory, 42,000 students and about 3,500
academic staff. Workforce of surveyed ICT firms composed of 77 % has undergraduate
degrees, % 14 university students, and % 9 graduate students. It is found that employees have
access to sufficient technical equipment, but there is a need for support for basic research. In
marketing dimension, in domestic market and especially in foreign market, there is a lack of
expertise.
Physical Infrastructure: Firms use ICT infrastructure provided by techno polis. Besides they
have high quality work place and office environments with meeting halls, social facilities.
Firms can use university’s IT labs.
Information Infrastructure: University campus has 21 applied research centers. IT
organization BILMER provides information to the firms in the techno polis. Academic staff
supports the firms by consulting them for whenever they need further information. Thus
university-industry linkages are quite strong. In the information infrastructure university units
have important role on producing, transferring information to private businesses.
Social Facilities: Firms benefit from social amenities which have located in the university
campus. Posting and banking services are adequate to reduce transaction costs. Social
amenities in the campus are attractive for talent. There are recreational, societal, cattering and
health service amenities.
In line with survey results, the firms emphasize their demand for specialized talent, strategic
information, assessing consumer preferences, technology transfer and financial resources. A
Degree factor condition is observed medium level. Factor endowment is not adequate solely,
to improve competitive advantage. Thus factor conditions are not main advantage of the
surveyed firms.
5.2.Demand Conditions
ICT clustering cases in the literature show that demand conditions in the home market can
cause competitive power, if sophisticated home market buyers pressure firms to innovate
faster and to create more advanced products than those of competitors. Therefore both public
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organizations and private sector should demand more specialized and innovative services.
For the case of Konya ICT, since public sector strategies are mostly administrated from
Ankara, access into public sector is not easy to develop services and goods for meeting public
demand. Thus there are frictions in public market. Private industry demand is not sufficiently
to pressure to innovate. Private sector demand mostly comes from health industry and share
of the manufacturing industries are low in market demand for software products. Because the
share of the industry demand is low, the firms do not incentive to improve competitive
advantage. Another disadvantage of the ICT cluster, it is organized to meet local demand so
that it has not supply capacity to meet national and foreign demand.
According the questionnaire results, demand conditions are sufficient in the regional
dimension. ICT cluster has regional competitive advantage. However, in the home market the
cluster is not an effective actor. This makes the firms disadvantageous in meeting global
market and competition conditions. Moreover, firms are not sufficient to serve desired level
for national auctions. Therefore demand conditions to gain competitive advantages can be
said weak for Konya ICT firms.
5.3.Firm Strategy and Rivalry
In the techno polis 89 % of firms are SME’s, remaining firms are branches of big software
firms. Firms are developing software for mainly health, automotive supply industry,
packaging industries which are regional industries. Firms get projects which are prepared in
cooperation with regional entities or firms. This project based works divert ICT sector to
work with regional industries. Some of the projects meet the national demands. Firms
declared that after-sell services, human resource for basic research and collaborative work
increase competition. In addition they believe that foreign investors will raise the total
quality. The firms which collaborate foreign firms as solution partners , report that the local
firms benefit from these kind of collaborating.
When examining firms strategy, rivalryand cooperation, the firms assert that they attribute
high importance on cooperation and collaboration. However in practice they practice medium
level cooperation. Because they locate on a shared place like techno polis, they purchase
services associatively and they are spatially proximate; they are expected to cooperate high
level. Medium level cooperation is an handicap for the ICT firms. In a cluster high level of
collaboration and high level of information sharing is crucial. Firms are aware of these
benefits but in practice collaboration is not at desired level. Firms perception about
collaboration supports the clustering thesis.
5.4.Related and Supporting Industries
When the external relations of the firms are inquired, below results are reached:
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Due to university-industry partnership, university students, graduate students and academic
staff have the opportunity to make applied research and this contributes to industry by
helping problem solving.
Although they attribute high value for university support in improving talent, technology
transfer, contributing cluster development; the current situation shows medium level linkages
about these functions.
Academic staff is working techno polis via only the project based duties.
Collaboration with the local university is inadequate and relations between universityindustry are not effective.
Despite the fact that close spatial proximity between university and firms, academic staff
could contribute in project based duties, so if the firm is not running on project based duties
they do not get support from academia. In addition, firms assert that they do not benefit from
brain power which is improved in university. Firms complain that the talented graduates do
not prefer these firms because they expect higher wages and different career plans. According
to them the talented workforce prefers other regions. They believe that low level of
corporatization is another reason for this talent preference.
5.5.Public Institutions
The relationship between ICT firms and public institutions are weaker than desired level. ICT
firms revealed that public institutions do not recognize them to collaborate. In this case they
feel lack of support of public and they are not defined in public administrative processes. This
situation is closely related to absence of legal framework and regulations. For instance,
support mechanism, subsidy conditions, and structural definition of the clusters are not
elucidated in legal institutions. Consequently ambiguities emerge when developing strategies
for clusters and creating relationships with public universities. ICT firms also face this kind
of ambiguity. Due to their project based works they have relationships between (TÜBİTAK),
TİGEM, TİDEP, Directorate of Improvement and Supporting SME’S (KOSGEB).
Analysis reveals that firms believe that cooperation with public institutions are not effective.
They believe that public-private partnership is highly important for gaining competitive
advantage. This situation arise questions on how the firms are familiar with clustering and
how do they involved in clustering efforts.
6.CONCLUSION
Evaluations and expectations show that core competency, marketing and advertising
activities rank first. Surveyed firms state that determining software activities as core
competence would cause competitive advantage in home market and foreign markets. Their
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job requires advertising and information sharing among the firms, but trust is reported a
precondition for sharing information.
Owners and managers of ICT firms state that beyond the adequacy of amount of firms, they
think that financial support, planning, coordination are included in clustering attempts. They
also point out the importance of relationships with foreign firms and foreign investments in
the industry. They believe that high level of corporatization will contribute into cluster
making. Current situation they have not enough employees and they work on demanded
projects which have been seen irregular works. Members of the surveyed firms emphasize the
high return of investing in human resources in their industry. They believe that if the level of
collaboration increases, the efficiency of firms would also increase. It has been understood
that the firms’ beliefs on cooperation are strong and their tendency to cooperate is high.

REFERENCES
Avnimelech, G. &amp; Schwartz, D. &amp; Bar-El, R (2007). Entrepreneurial High-tech Cluster
Development: Israel’s Experience with Venture Capital and Technological Incubators,
European Planning Studies, 1469-5944, Volume 15, Issue 9, 2007, Pages 1181 – 1198.
Brenner, T. &amp; Gildner, A. (2006). The Long-term Implications of Local Industrial Clusters,
Papers on Economics and Evolution 2006-08, Max Planck Institute of Economics,
Evolutionary Economics Group, European Planning Studies, Vol. 14, No. 9, October 2006,
1315-1328.
Çivi, Emin, (2001).Rekabet Gücü: Literatür Araştırması”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, Yıl 2001, C
8, Sayı 2, s.21-38.
Garcia, Cristina Q. and Velasco, Carlos A. B., 2002. Co-opetition and Performance: Evidence
from European Biotechnology Industry, The European Academy of Management, 2nd.
Annual Conference on Innovative Research in Management May 9-11, Track: Coopetition
Strategy: Towards A New Kind of Interfirm Dynamics, 2002, Stockholm, Sweden.
Haan, U. (2008). Looking for success factors in Israel’s high-Tech Clusters, Springer,
Lazonick, W. (2008) Entrepreneurial Ventures and the Developmental State Lessons from the
Advanced
Economies,
Discussion
Paper
No.
2008/01,
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http://www.wider.unu.edu/publications/working-papers/discussionpapers/2008/en_GB/dp2008-01/_files/78805634425684379/default/dp2008-01.pdf
Narula, R. &amp; Marin, A. (2005). Exploring the relationship between direct and indirect
spillovers from FDI in Argentina, Research Memoranda 024, Maastricht : MERIT,
Maastricht
Economic
Research
Institute
on
Innovation
and
Technology,
http://ideas.repec.org/p/dgr/umamer/2005024.html
Parto, S. (2008).Innovation and Economic Activity: An Institutional Analysis of the Role of
Clusters in Industrializing Economies,Journal of Economic Issues, Available at
http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-36151980_ITM.
Porter, M. E. (1990), The Competitive Advantages of Nations, Harvard Business Review,
March-April, No:2
Porter, M. (2000). Location, Competition and Economic Development: Local Clusters in a
Global Economy, Economic Development Quarterley, 14 (1), 15-34
Raco, Mike (1999). Competition, Collaboration and the New Industrial Districts: Examining
the Institutional Turn in Local Economic Development, Urban Studies, 36 (5-6): 951-968.

Comparison of linear regression and neural network models forecasting tourist arrivals
to Turkey
Selcuk Cankurt, Abdulhamit Subasi
International Burch University, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies,
Francuske Revolucije bb. Ilidza, Sarajevo, 71000, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mail:asubasi@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract
This paper develops statistical and machine learning methods for estimating tourist arrivals
which is one of the donnée for planning the sustainable tourism development. Tourism is
arguably one of the world's largest and fastest growing industries. Sustainable tourism
304

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                <text>The notion of clusters has been attracted increasing interest from academics and business  practitioners for two decades. The theory and research emphasize their strong and positive  influence in promoting industrial development, innovation, and competitiveness and  economic growth. Thus clusters, become a useful policy instrument in regional innovation  systems (RIS) aiming to promote sustainable regional growth. Related literature suggests that  competitive clusters provide a fertile and conducive business environment for companies to  collaborate with research institutions, suppliers, customers and competitors located in the  same geographical area. They are becoming powerful engines of economic development and  drivers. Not all industries can create opportunities for employment, but of which share  knowledge and transfer technology both directly and through upstream and downstream  linkages with other relevant sectors. Not only they move their production facilities, they also  intend to transfer their research and development units from those favorable regions which  have relatively higher stage of development than the others in terms of infrastructure  facilities, education and training institutions, stable incentives, subsidiary potential, and the  presence of other multinational enterprises. The informatics sector can provide a foundation for the growth of industrial activity in a  developing economy. Therefore, as an example of high-tech clusters and potentially highvalue  added sectors in developing countries, in-depth analysis of the informatics sector with  its hardware suppliers as a whole can shed light on the question of how a developing country  can structure its strategies to be able to upgrade and be competitive over time. In recent years,  Turkey has made an effort as a major player in the global informatics sector. Owing to its  skilled labor/brain force, rapid growth and market potential, Turkey has gained tremendous  attention of the informatics sector since 1980s. According to a survey of a city of Konya  sample, innovation attitudes the company managers operating in the IT sector has been  measured. In line with this purpose survey of firms in Konya Teknokent has been conducted.  Keywords: Cluster, Innovation, Konya, IT, Competition</text>
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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Consumer Oriented Marketing: Seafood Consumption Among Children
M. TolgaTolon,DilekEmiroğlu
Ege University Faculty of Fisheries, 35100, Izmir, Turkey
Emails: tolga.tolon@ege.edu.tr, dilek.emiroglu@ege.edu.tr
Abstract
Parents’ dominance on determination of food consumption pattern of children has been changing
in recent years by the effect of developing social communication via information technologies,
improving education level and changing social status of the community. Increasing awareness of
children on sustainable and healthy nutrition issues affects consumption habits of the modern
families. Today, parents give more importance to the preference and proposals of their children
for the food selection. In previous decade, adults were more health conscious and prefer healthy
foods than the young ones but today an enormous amount of efforts has been launched to educate
children about consuming healthy foods than never before.
Families with the children are an important market segment for the seafood industry. However,
children’sdislike of seafood or strong preferences for fast-food type consumption is the barriers to
seafood marketing in many cases. Consequently, children are the preferential targets of seafood
promotions and campaigns in most countries to gain more consumers today and in the future.
In this study, seafood consumption pattern and preferences of the children in age group of 10-14
has been researched. Randomly selected 400 children were surveyed through a questionnaire with
personal interviews. The surveys have been conducted in primary schools of two cities which
localized as seaside and inland in west part of Turkey.
Findings derived from the research have indicated that social interaction among children has
strong impact on seafood consumption habit. Moreover, children would promote seafood
consumption in their families. Besides education the forms of seafood specially cooked and
packaged attractive to their age group and promotion campaigns lead most children to demand
and consume more seafood.
This paper provides sample clues for improving marketing strategy by focusing on children’s
seafood consumption. The reasons of seafood resistance have to be identified clearly and
continuouslyfor
the
consumer
oriented
marketing
in
seafood.
Keywords: marketing, seafood, consumption, children, consumer oriented
1.INTRODUCTION
The consumer-oriented marketing is a new model of marketing that company should view and
organize its marketing activities from the consumer's point of view. Consumer-oriented
marketing, which focuses on fine-tuning a business by determining its customer base, is an
important development in the evolution of marketing. This process is defined by three functions
within the consumer-oriented market model: analysis, modeling and planning.
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When a product is marketed in a consumer orientated way there must be a lot of research needed
to find out the facts about the consumer. This is something that can be done through
surveys.Also knowing the habits of those markets and consumer needs can be profitable
byutilizing that information ahead of time.
The availability of customer information has grown exponentially, providing the raw material for
more detailed analysis. Although this can be costly, the benefits of most consumer marketing
campaigns do outweigh the initial research cost.
Another benefit would be gained from the consumer oriented marketing is to target a certain
consumer group by the right marketing tools or promotions as in the seafood consumption case.
Families with the children are an important market segment for the seafood industry.
As eating habits are formed in childhood, it is necessary that their determining factors be
understood in order to establish effective educational and marketing processes that can change
children’s eating behavior (Angelis, 1995). The literature on infant feeding shows that children’s
eating behavior is firstly determined by their family and, in a second moment, by other
psychosocial and cultural interactions (Maurem, 2000).Food consumption behavior, like any
complex human behavior, will be influenced by many interrelating factors, like physical
properties of the food (flavor, texture, odor), characteristics of the individual (personality,
preferences, attitudes, perceptions, knowledge) or characteristics with the environment
(availability, season, situation, culture) (Olsen, 2001).
Innovative and sustainable marketing methods are essential to increase the per capita
consumption in markets which the seafood is not present traditionally as Turkey. Inclusion of
children into the seafood market would be possible by modern marketing methods as consumer
oriented marketing. Therefore, children are the preferential targets of seafood promotions and
campaigns in most countries to gain more consumers today and in the future.
The main purpose of the present study was to provide sample clues for improving marketing
strategy in context of consumer oriented marketing principles by focusing on children’s seafood
consumption habits between 10-14 ages. The factors affecting seafood consumption behavior and
reasons of seafood resistance were identified in sample case in order to be utilized in consumer
oriented marketing strategyfor sustainable marketing efforts.
2.METHODOLOGY
The subjects were students who are recruited from the primary schools of two cities, Muğla
(agricultural city,20km from seaside) and İzmir (industrial city, near seaside) both located in west
part of Turkey.
Random selection of 400 children (203 girls, 197 boys) (stratified for age and town, 200 from
each of the towns) ranging in age from 10 to 14 years was performed on the basis of local
taxation registers in order to achieve an adequate variation of socio-economic factors.
Although the detailed demographic data were not collected from any of the students who
participated, it is known that families in this subject pool are in and below the Turkish median for
income. None of the children in the present study had previously participated in anyseafood or
economic survey.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

A questionnaire asking respondents about their attitudes and seafood consumption behavior was
constructed and pre-tested.The questionnaire was developed on the basis of consumer oriented
marketing strategies which include to reveal the clues about consumption pattern, knowledge
background, social context related with seafood consumption of the target group.
Descriptive statistics and chi-square test analysis were used to predict the relation between
consumption behavior and other factors. All analyses were done with SPSS version 15, and a
value of p≤0.05 was taken as the level of significance throughout. The p-values are reported only
for the significant results.
3.RESULTS
A total of 400 surveys were completed for this study during March 2012. Respondents surveyed
can be sorted into one of four groups for purpose of data analysis (Table 1). Group 1 had 356
respondents (89%), which reported that they do eat fish or seafood regularly. Group 2 had 32
respondents who do not like the taste of fish and therefore not eating any fish or seafood. Group 3
had 8 respondents who are unable to buy or eat fish or seafood because of low financial situation.
Group 4 had 4 respondents which reported that they had experienced health problems as
poisoning and awn prick during fish consumption.
Table 1. Grouping for survey respondents
Number of
children surveyed
(N)

Ratio (%) Groups

356

89

Group I – Eat fish regularly

32

8

Group II – Do not eat fish (Taste)

8

2

Group III – Do not eat fish (Financial)

4

1

Group IV – Do not eat fish (Health)

The key points and seafood consumption pattern of target group were analyzed and summarized
to develop a consumer oriented marketing strategy (Table 2).
Table 2. Summary of the key points for consumer oriented marketing strategy in Group I.
Question
Frequency

107

Bi-weekly (42%) , Once in a month (26%), Every week (24%)

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Place

Home (91%), Restaurant (4,5 %) , Outdoor (4,5%)

Respect to decision

Sometimes (56%), Always (33%) , Never (11%)

Species

Anchovy (30%) ,Seabream (18%), Sea bass (9%)

Other seafood

Mollusk (48%), Canned tuna (43%) , calamari (30%) , fish finger
(27%)

Identify

Yes (81%) , No (19%)

Benefit

Answer (95 %) , No answer (5%)

Source of knowledge

School (42%) , Social Media (39 %) , Family (19%)

Ads interest

Yes (76%) , No (24 %)

Angling

Yes (52%) , No (48 %)

Friends consumption

Yes (94%) , No (6%)

Sibling Consumption

Yes (76%) , No (24%)

Consumption frequency in Group 1was reported as 42% bi-weekly, 26% once in a month and
24% every week.
Questions focused on the employment status of the respondents’ family have showed that 92% of
the fathers and 23% of the mothers are employed in a job. Only 21% of the students’ both
parents are found to be employed. Parents are in the middle and lower income group according to
their business types.
The most popular fish species according to respondent’s preference were anchovy (30%), sea
bream (18%) and sea bass (9%).
The evaluation of deboned or prepared seafood consumption has showed that 48% of the
respondents like the taste of mussels, 43% canned tuna fish, 30% calamari and 27% fish finger .
Most children stated that they consume seafood at home (91%), 5% of them are consuming at the
restaurants and 4% at the outdoor facilities as picnic.
Participants reported that 33% of their gatekeepers “always” respecttheir food decisions,nearly
half of them (56%) respect “sometimes” and 11% “never” ask their children’s food preferences.
An important amount (89%) of the gatekeepers is respecting their children’s decision in preparing
and serving food types.

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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Totally 304 respondent (76%) from all groups reported that they are remembering at least one
commercial ad about seafood or fish products. Even 73% of non-fish eating groups’ members
(Group II,III,IV) arealso remembering at least one commercial ad about seafood and fishes.
Most of the children (81%) had stated that they know or can identify the fish species that they eat.
However, no significant relation has found between “fish eating”and “fish awareness”(p&gt;0.05)
A significant relation has been determined between “fish awareness” and “commercial fish ads”
in all groups (p=0.028, p≤0.05). Seventy seven percent (77%) of the respondents which are
remembering fish ads are also stating that they are aware of fish species.
Although the seafood promotion activities in the schools were very rare, 88% of the respondents
who witness a seafood promotion activity reported as they know or can identify the fish species.
Also the fish consumption ratio within this group was 99%. There is a significant relation
between the “fish promotion in schools” and “fish awareness” as well as “fish consumption”
(p=0.021, p≤0.05)
No significant relation can be found between the “aquarium hobby” and the “fish consumption”.
The presence of aquarium and hobby breeding of fishes as pet do not affecting the fish
consumption positive or negatively (p&gt;0,05).
Nearly all of the children (95%) had responded the “What are the benefits of fish consumption”
question. The reported benefits of seafood were focused on eye wellness, intelligence
development, bone and muscle development, growth, protein and omega-3 supply. Nearly half of
the respondents (42%) stated that they learn such knowledge from lectures in schools, 39% from
newspaper, magazines and internet, 19% from their parents and family members.
The question asking that “have you ever been in a bait fishing activity?” was responded as “Yes”
by 52% of the respondents. Almost all of the children (93%)thoseanswered this question
positively were also stated as they are eating fish regularly. There is a significant relation
between the “bait fishing” and “fish consumption habit” (p=0.02, p≤0.05).
Greater than 94% of the respondents in all groups reported that their friends are eating fish
regularly. This ratio was slightly higher in the Group I as 95%. Significant relation has been
found between the “fish consumption” of the respondents and their “friend’s fish eating
behavior” (p=0.016, p≤0.05)
Sibling’s nutritional behavior also has impact on the respondent’s fish consumption pattern. The
percentage of children reporting their sibling’s fish consumption behavior as positive was 76% in
Group I. Sibling’s fish consumption behaviorhas a significant impact on respondent’s fish
consumption habit (p=0.04 , p≤0.05).
4.DISCUSSION
Companies should principally develop their strategies for their target groups in consumer
oriented marketing applications. The strategy adopted in this study was to increase the amount
and frequency of consumed seafood by product diversification and adaptation according the
needs of target consumer group as children.
The researched group that has high percentage of seafood consumer (Group I) is a preferential
target for consumer oriented marketing strategy. However, 8% of the respondents (Group II),
109

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

who do not like the taste and therefore not consuming seafood, would also be included into the
target group of marketing strategy.
Psychosocially, eating behavior relies on parents’ active participation as nutritional educators
through family interactions that affect children’s eating habits (Gillespie and Acterberg, 1989).
The gatekeeper in the family is defined as the primary food decision maker and studies have
shown that the gatekeeper's decisions are greatly influenced by other family members', food likes
and dislikes (Wandel et al 1995). The high respect level (89%) of gatekeepers to the food
decisions of their children and consumption of seafood intensively at home and with family
members are the signs of a two-way interaction between children and parents on food
consumption habits and decisions. In addition, the findings derived from the research had shown
that proper knowledge about seafood is especially supplied by the teachers and followed by
media sources as newspapers, internet and magazines.The nutritional facts about the seafood had
been properly understood and adopted by almost all of the children researched. Although,
children of such age group is not defined as a primary customer in context of economy, their
consumption habits and demands are effectively forcing families to involve in seafood market as
primary customers. Moreover, children would promote seafood consumption in their families.
Social interaction among children has strong impact on seafood consumption behavior. It is an
important clue in developing marketing strategy that social environment of children especially
their friends have more impact than their families on consumption behavior. In this case, children
do not eat only because of hunger feeling but also by suggestion of the environment and social
context (Birch and Fisher, 1997).
Children’s dislike of seafood or their strong preference for hedonic consumption are barriers to
seafood consumption (Olsen, 2001). Children prefer fast food type deboned seafood varieties
instead of fish meals that are cooked and served in classic styles. The demand of children for
such type of seafood as mollusk, canned tuna fish, calamari, fish finger and fish balls is a strong
sign for such preference. Analyzing the serving and eating styles of best preferred meals of the
target group and serving seafood products in such forms has to be included in the marketing
strategy which would promote effective consumption in the market.
Children’s point of view to the seafood products is another important key point in planning
consumer oriented marketing strategies. As the aquarium hobby do not affecting fish eating
motivation of the children in positive or negative manner, but involving in activities such as bait
fishing and fishing for nutritional aims would promote seafood consumption of the children
strongly.Informative promotions that are emphasizing edibility of the aquatic organisms would
increase the market effectiveness of seafood among the target consumers. Considering the
memorable feature of seafood ads by the most of the children, suitable ads that conforms the
interests of children would be published through interactive social media and TV’s as consumer
oriented marketing strategy. Immediate and future campaigns can be then planned well so that it
can create better impact to the consumer segment.
5.CONCLUSION
There are a lot of other buying factors that consumers may have but children do not consider
price over other factors. Children’s preferences are mainly driven by their hedonic needs. It’s
important to take into consideration consumer’s habits, values, and all other factors that influence
110

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

their decisions. With these data at hand, any company can create strategies that can work around
the individual needs of these customers.
ACKNOWLEDGE
Special thanks to primary school teachers Miss ÖzlemÇizmecigil and Mrs.DenizÇakıroğlu who
collaborate in conducting surveys and collecting precious data.
REFERENCES
Alphanet
Marketing
(2012)
Consumer
Oriented
Marketing Definition,
URL
http://www.alphanetmarketing.com/2010/12/consumer-oriented-marketing-definition.html
Angelis R.C.
Ped;13:126-7.

(1995)Alimentaçãonainfânciavsconseqüênciasulterioresnasaúde.

Rev

Paul

Birch L.L and Fisher J.A. (1997) The role of experience in the development of children’s eating
behavior. Why we eat what we eat. The psychology of eating. 2nd ed. p. 113-41. Washington
Brown A.J. (1998) Effective Customer-Oriented Marketing, URL http://www.informationmanagement.com/infodirect/19980401/932-1.html
Gillespie A.H and Acterberg C.L. (1989) Comparison of family interaction patterns related to
food and nutrition. J Am Diet Assoc ;89:509-12.
Maurem R. and Lilian M.S. (2000) Development children’s eating behavior, Jornal de Pediatria Vol. 76, Supl.3, S229-S237
Mennell S, Murcott A, Otterloo AH. (1992) The sociology of food: Eating, diet and culture.
Current Sociology. J Intern SocAssoc; 4O:l-147.
Olsen S.O. (2001) Consumer involvement in seafood as family meals in Norway: an application
of the expectancy-value approach, Journal of Appetite, Volume 36, Issue 2, Pages 173–186
Roininen K. Roininen, L. Lähteenmäki, H. Tuorila (1999) Quantification of consumer attitudes to
health and hedonic characteristics of foods, Journal of Appetite, 33 (1999), pp. 71–88
Wandel M, Bugge A, SkoglundRamm J. (1995) Matvaneriendringogstabilitet (Change and
stability in food habits). SIFO,:4.

111

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                <text>Consumer Oriented Marketing: Seafood Consumption Among Children</text>
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                <text>Parents’ dominance on determination of food consumption pattern of children has been changing  in recent years by the effect of developing social communication via information technologies,  improving education level and changing social status of the community. Increasing awareness of  children on sustainable and healthy nutrition issues affects consumption habits of the modern  families. Today, parents give more importance to the preference and proposals of their children  for the food selection. In previous decade, adults were more health conscious and prefer healthy  foods than the young ones but today an enormous amount of efforts has been launched to educate  children about consuming healthy foods than never before.  Families with the children are an important market segment for the seafood industry. However,  children’sdislike of seafood or strong preferences for fast-food type consumption is the barriers to  seafood marketing in many cases. Consequently, children are the preferential targets of seafood  promotions and campaigns in most countries to gain more consumers today and in the future.  In this study, seafood consumption pattern and preferences of the children in age group of 10-14  has been researched. Randomly selected 400 children were surveyed through a questionnaire with  personal interviews. The surveys have been conducted in primary schools of two cities which  localized as seaside and inland in west part of Turkey.  Findings derived from the research have indicated that social interaction among children has  strong impact on seafood consumption habit. Moreover, children would promote seafood  consumption in their families. Besides education the forms of seafood specially cooked and  packaged attractive to their age group and promotion campaigns lead most children to demand  and consume more seafood.  This paper provides sample clues for improving marketing strategy by focusing on children’s  seafood consumption. The reasons of seafood resistance have to be identified clearly and  continuouslyfor the consumer oriented marketing in seafood.  Keywords: marketing, seafood, consumption, children, consumer oriented</text>
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                    <text>Heavy metal induced gene expression in Brassicaceae
Lamija Subasic, Haris Gavranovic, Imer Muhovic and Abdul Razaque Memon*
Department of Genetics and Bioengineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information
Technologies, International Burch University, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E-mail: armemon@ibu.edu.com
Abstract
Plants require at least 14 mineral elements for their nutrition. These include the
macronutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg)
and sulphur (S) and the micronutrients boron (B), chlorine (Cl), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn),
copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni) and molybdenum (Mo). These are generally obtained from
the soil. Crop production is often limited by low bioavailability of essential mineral elements
and/or the presence of excessive concentrations of potentially toxic heavy metals, such as Fe,
Mn, Cu, Cr, Cd, Pb, Zn and Al in the soil solution. In the past few years, responses of plants
to heavy metals have received increasing attention. On one hand due to industrial activities,
toxic heavy metals such as Cd, Zn, Cu, Cr, Pb have been released into the biosphere and
represent a widespread environmental pollution. High concentrations of heavy metals in the
soil can inhibit plant growth and reduce crop yields, which can affect sustainable development
severely. In order to study the molecular response of plants to heavy metals, the gene
expression data of model crop plants especially in Brassicaceae family were analyzed by
searching several databases available online. In the first part of this work the publicly
available online resources for these plants from websites such as http://www.ncbi.nih.gov,
http://www.tigr.org, http://www.brassica.info, and related sites were searched to collect
nucleotide sequences that encode heavy metal ATPases and transporter protein homologues.
The second part of this work focuses on the expression of these genes in plants grown at
different concentrations of Cu, Zn, and Cd. Real time PCR (RT-PCR) experiments will be
carried out to analyze the expression of these genes in roots and shoots of B. nigra and B.
juncea treated with different concentrations of metals.
Keywords: Arabidopsis thaliana, Brassicaceae, phylogenetic tree, Metal ATPases,
phytoremediation
1.INTRODUCTION
Phytoremediation uses green plants to clean up toxic amount of inorganic and organic
pollutants from the environment. The rapid industrialization and urbanization of many
developed and recently developing countries (for example China, India, Brazil etc) have
increased heavy metal and organic pollution in the environment (Memon and Schroder,
2009). Hyperaccumulation as a phenomenon has attracted growing attention in the past
decade. Exploiting hyperaccumulating plant species, and identifying metal accumulation
205

�genes is currently focal point for phytoremediation or phytomining (Ozturk et al 2012).
Among limited number of plant species 400 are classified as heavy accumulator plants (Baker
et al., 2000). Among them Arabidopsis hallari, Thlaspi, Brassica nigra, and Brassica juncea
have been most studied (Memon and Schroder, 2009). Those plant species have the ability to
accumulate extremely high amounts of heavy metals in their leaves (Brown et al., 1995). The
plants absorb contaminants through the root system and store them in the root biomass and/or
transport them up into the stems and/or leaves. A living plant may continue to absorb
contaminants until it is harvested. After harvest, a lower level of the contaminant will remain
in the soil, so the growth/harvest cycle must usually be repeated through several crops to
achieve a significant cleanup. After the process, the cleaned soil can support other vegetation.
Heavy metals that have been identified in the polluted environment include As, Cu, Cd, Pb,
Cr, Ni, Hg and Zn. Different sources of heavy metals are listed in Table 1.
Table 1. Different sources of heavy metal contamination.
Heavy metals

Sources

As
preservatives, animal feed
plants, herbicides, volcanoes,
mining and smelting
Cu
biosolids

Cd
fossil fuel burning,
phosphate fertilizers, sewage sludge

Semiconductors, petroleum refining, wood
additives,
coal
power,

Electroplating industry, smelting and refining, mining

Geogenic sources , anthropogenic activitie,s
metal smelting and refining,
application
of

Cr
tanneries

Electroplating industry, sludge, solid waste,

Pb
of leaded gasoline,
wastes enriched in Pb, paints

Mining and smelting of metalliferous ores, burning
municipal
sewage,
industrial

Hg
industries producing caustic

Volcano eruptions, forest fire, emissions from
soda, coal, peat and wood burning

206

�Se
fuels, glass manufacturing
(e.g., varnish, pigment formulation)

Coal mining, oil refining, combustion of fossil
industry, chemical synthesis

Ni
bursting and gas exchange
soils and geological materials

Volcanic eruptions, land fill, forest fire, bubble
in ocean, weathering of

Zn
mining, biosolids

Electroplating industry, smelting and refining,

Different approaches have been used or developed to mitigate the heavy metal polluted soils.
The metal ion accumulated in the aerial parts that can be removed to dispose or burnt to
recover metals. The results indicate that many Brasssica sp. such as B. juncea L., B. juncea L.
Czern, B. napus L.and B. rapa L. exhibited moderately enhanced Zn and Cd accumulation.
According to Brooks (1998) and Baker (2000) they were also found to be most effective in
removing Zn from the contaminated soils. The plant species that have been identified for
remediation of soil include either high biomass plants such as willow (Landberg and Greger,
1996) or those that have low biomass but high hyperaccumulating characteristics such as
Thlaspi and Arabidopsis species (Memon et al 2000, Memon et al. 2008).
The main objective of this study is to identify genes responsible for hyperaccumulation of
heavy metals such as Zn, Cu and Cd in Brassicaceae family species, namely Brassica , do
comparative phyletic analysis among different species and characterize metal induced gene
expression. The present study aims at finding homologues of heavy metal ATPases among
species mentioned that might possess same specific functional similarities. Moreover, this
study aids to resolve many problems of soil pollution and enhance soil clean-up methods by
using fast growing and high biomass accumulator plant species. The main components of this
study are: i) retrieval of heavy metal ATPase nucleotide sequences from Brassicaceae family
species, H.sapiens and S.cerevisiae by searching through all sequence databases; ii) multiple
alignment of found sequences, iii) phyletical analysis of heavy metal ATPases genes, where
the main gene source was A.thaliana, compared with Brassicaceae, H.sapiens and S.cerevisiae
and other related organisms with the objective of finding motifs with high or identical
functional similarity.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1.Retrieval of sequences
In this study DNA sequences were retrieved from websites as a molecular evidence to classify
organisms. Several publicly available online data resources were used including:
http://arabidopsis.org/
(TIGR,
The
Institute
for
Genomic
Research);
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ (GenBank);
http://plantgdb.org/ (PGD, Plant Genome
Database), http://srs.ebi.ac.uk (EMBL-EBI). Homo sapiens and yeast sequences were
acquired from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/. and http://www.yeastgenome.org/ (SGD,
Saccharomyces Genome Database), respectively. All the sequences were downloaded in
FASTA format and all databases were screened for heavy metal ATPase gene homologues by
207

�employing the BLAST algorithm (Blastn and discontiguous megablast for nucleotide
databases). Discontiguous megablast as a version of megablast is used to compare slightly
diverged sequences, especially sequences from different organisms, which have alignments
with low degree of identity. For the initial screening, Arabidopsis, human and yeast heavy
metal ATPases nucleotide sequences were used and every database scanned for the E-value of
sequences of &lt;10-7. Phylogenetic tree was constructed from DNA sequences by using Java
applet JalView. Firstly, genes responsible for hyperaccumulation of heavy metals, heavy
metal ATPases were collected from www.arabidopsis.org. The sequence databases were also
searched using keywords for heavy metal ATPases. In total seven of the gene nucleotide
sequences from Arabidopsis thaliana were taken and put for further analyses. The identified
genes from these databanks are: HMA1 (Heavy metal ATPase 1); copper-exporting ATPase,
HMA2 (Heavy metal ATPase 2); cadmium-transporting ATPase, HMA3 (Heavy metal
ATPase 3); ATPase, coupled to transmembrane movement of ions, phosphorylative
mechanism, HMA4 (Heavy metal ATPase 4); cadmium-transporting ATPase, HMA5
(HEAVY METAL ATPASE 5); ATPase, coupled to transmembrane movement of ions,
phosphorylative mechanism, PAA1 (metal-transporting P-type ATPase 1), PAA1 (metaltransporting P-type ATPase 1); ATPase, coupled to transmembrane movement of ions,
phosphorylative mechanism. Subsequently, based on those identified genes sequences,
nucleotide sequences for other organisms such as Brassica, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and
human were collected from http://srs.ebi.ac.uk and http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ for the
purpose of finding homologue sequences. After the set of related sequences were obtained, we
proceeded further by using BLAST tool form NCBI website to find regions of local similarity
between sequences.
2.2. Multiple alignment and phylogenetic tree construction
A total of 134 heavy metal ATPase sequences were multiply aligned by utilizing ClustalW
program in order to construct phylogenetic tree. Construction of phylogenetic tree is the most
convenient method to represent the significant relation among obtained sequences. The
purpose of our research is to study the sequences of gene family where all sequences share the
same common ancestor. Thus by implementing phylogenetic trees we will ensure that the
heavy metal accumulator genes are orthologous to another well-characterized gene in another
species. Two genes that are orthologous often have the same exact function (have similar
roles) in the two different organisms they come from. In order to construct phylogenetic tree
sequences of genes need to be aligned. In multiple sequence alignment the nucleotide
sequences are being overlapped so similar features end up in the same column. The idea
behind a multiple alignment is to put nucleotides or amino acids in the same column because
they are very similar according to some criterion. There are four major criteria to build a
multiple alignment of sequences that all have different properties. These four criteria are as
follows: structural, evolutionary, functional and sequence similarity. While the first three
criteria have a clear biological meaning, the fourth one does not. When the sequences are
closely related, their structural, evolutionary, and functional similarities are equivalent to
sequence similarity.
The criterion observed in this research is that the sequences of different metal induced genes
have functional and evolutionary similarities among species. Our hypothesis is that the
functionally related sequences of the genes from different species or organisms will be
having conserved pattern or motif which will be possibly related to hyperaccumulation of
heavy metals.
208

�3.Results and Discussion
3.1.Heavy metal ATPase homologues
Three phylogenetic trees were constructed for collected heavy metal ATPase nucleotide
sequences. In Fig.1. a total of 27 gene nucleotide sequences were obtained from 2 different
organism: 24 plants and 3 human species after scanning of major sequence databases. The
majority of these sequences belonged to Arabidopsis thaliana. Mainly mRNA sequences were
taken for multiple alignment and construction of phylogenetic tree by using Neigbour Joining
method in Jalview software.

Fig.1. Linear dendrogram presenting a phylogenetic tree for metal accumulating genes.
In one study a total of 35 homologues gene nucleotide sequences were obtained from 19
different organisms: 2 plants (8 Arabidopsis thaliana and 3 Oryza sativa Japonica Group), 2
Mus Musculus, 2 Rattus norvegicus, Caenoharbditis elegans, 2 Canis lupus familiaris, Bos
taurus, Gallus gallus, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Macaca mulatta, Anopheles gambiae pest,
Kluyveromyces lactis, Pan troglodytes, Homo sapiens, Schizosaccharomyces pombe, Danio
rerio, Neurospora crassa, Magnaporthe oryzae and Drosophila melanogaster after scanning of
major sequence databases. The majority of heavy metal ATPase sequences belonged to
Arabidopsis thaliana. Mainly mRNA sequences were taken for multiple alignment and
construction of phylogenetic tree by using Neigbour Joining method in Jalview software.
209

�In another study a total of 72 homologues gene nucleotide sequences were obtained from 14
different organisms: plants (Arabidopsis thaliana, Hordeum vulgare, Glycine max, Oryza
sativa japonica, Oryza sativa indica, Noccaea caerulescens, Thlaspi caerulescens, Triticum
aestivum, Sorghum bicolor, Populus trichocarpa, Medicago truncatula, Picea glauca, Solanum
tuberosum, Hirchfeldia incana, Brassica juncea, Brassica napus ,Vitis vinifera, Zea mays,
Thellungiella halophila, Physcomitrella patens ssp patens, Selaginella moellendorffii,
Solanum lycopersicum, Brachypodium distachyum, Sedum alfredii, Ricinus communis ), Pan
troglodytes, Pongo abelii, Macaca mulatta, Rattus norvegicus, Equus caballus, Bos taurus,
Sparus aurata, Drosophila melanogaster, Drosophila erecta, Chlamydomonas reindhartii,
Trichoplax adhaerens, Candida albicans, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens after
scanning of major sequence databases. The majority of heavy metal ATPase sequences
belonged to Arabidopsis thaliana (8), and Medicago truncatula (6). Mainly mRNA sequences
were taken for multiple alignment and construction of phylogenetic tree by using Neigbour
Joining method in Jalview software. From the comparative analyses of phylogenetic trees
orthologous heavy metal ATPase genes were identified from model crop plants in
Brassicaceae family, such as Arabidopsis thaliana, Brassica juncea, Brassica napus, Noccaea
caerulescens and Thlaspi caerulescens. Phylogenetic tree is comprised of: leaves or OTUs
(Operational Taxonomic Units), nodes which represent an ancestral OUT, clade (a group of
OTUs that includes several sequences and their common ancestor nodes), branch which
defines the relation between a clade or an OTU and the rest of the tree and root which is the
common ancestor of all the OTUs. Phylogenetic trees were built with distance methods by
grouping OTUs according to overall similarity. These phylogenetic trees are unscaled, where
branch length does not have any special meaning in terms of evolutionary time. On the other
hand it indicates of orthologous heavy metal ATPase genes across different species.
Conclusion
Great efforts have been made in the last two decades to reduce pollution sources and remedy
the polluted soil and water resources. Phytoremediation, being more cost-effective and fewer
side effects than physical and chemical approaches, has gained increasing popularity in both
academic and practical circles. Recent advances in biotechnology will play a promising role
in the development of new hyperaccumulators by identifying a specific metal genes and
transferring metal hyperaccumulating genes from low biomass wild species to the higher
biomass producing cultivated species in the times to come. This can play a significant role in
the extraction of heavy metals from the polluted soils and aid sustainable environmental
development. Phytoextraction as a way of phytoremediation is environmental friendly, and
causes no harm to soil quality. Moreover, it is less expensive than any other clean-up process.
It takes more time than other clean-up techniques, but on the other hand its benefits certainly
outweigh the time-consuming process, since it is related to plants. Although, investigations
are needed to develop new methods for effective recovery of metals from the
hyperaccumulator plant biomass.
REFERENCES
Memon, A.R. and Schröder, P. 2008. Implication of metal accumulation mechanisms to
phytoremediation. Environ. Sci. Pol. Res. (ESPR). 16: 162-175.
Ozturk, M., Memon, A. R. , Gucel, S. , and Dogan, Y. 2012. Brassicas in Turkey and their
Possible Role in the Phytoremediation of Degraded Habitats. Springer-Verlag.

210

�Memon et al 2008. Metal accumulation in crops- Human health issues, In : Trace ElementsNutritional benefits, environmental contamination, and health implications, Ed. M. N. V.
Prasad, John Wiley &amp; Sons pp. 81-97
Memon, A. R., Aktoprakligıl, D., Özdemir, A., and Vertii, A. 2000. Gene expression of heavy
metal stress protein in plants. Turkish J. Botany 25, 111-121
Memon, A. R., Yildizhann Y. and Keskin, B. C. Phytoremedıatıon of heavy metals from
contamınated areas of Turkey. 4th European Bioremediation Conference, Sept 3-6, Chania,
Crete, Greece, ID04 pp1-4, ISBN 978-960-8475-12-0.
Baker, A.J.M., McGrath, S.P., Reeves, R.D., Smith, J.C.A. (2000). Metal Hyperaccumulator
Plants: A Review of the Ecology and Physiology of a Biological Resource for
Phytoremediation of Metal-Polluted Soils.In: Terry, N., Banuelos, G. Eds. Phytoremediation
of Contaminated Soils and Water. Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
Brown, S.L., Chaney, R.L., Scott Angle, J. (1995). Zinc and cadmium uptake by
hyperaccumulator thlaspi-caerulescens grown in nutrient solution. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 59:
125-133.
Claverie,J.M. Cedric Notredame (2007). Bioinformatics For Dummies (2nd). Indianapolis,
Indiana: Wiley Publishing, Inc.
Landberg, T., Greger, M. (1996). Differences in uptake and tolerance to heavy metals in Salix
from unpolluted and polluted areas. Applied Geochem., 11(1-2):175-180.
Brooks, R.R., 1998. Plants that Hyperaccumulate Heavy Metals. CAN International,
Wallington, p.379.

Engineering of microalgae for biofuel production
Recep Vatansever1, Sanija Cavar1,2, and Abdul Razaque Memon1
1Department of Genetics and Bioengineering, Faculty of Engineering and Information
Technologies, International Burch University, 71000 Sarajevo
2Department of Chemistry, University of Sarajevo, Sarajevo, Bosnia and herzegovina
Abstract
Increasing of the world population along with the economic wealth deepens the energy crises
every day. Hence we need to find the new alternative energy sources that will satisfy the
energy demand and concomitantly deliver no emission to the environment.
In this particular situation, plants offer us a highly efficient and effective solutions. However
use of higher plants for such purposes can cause several problems such as food competition,
water shortage, arable land, fertilizer etc. Algae are tiny biological factories that use
photosynthesis to transform carbon dioxide and sunlight into energy so efficiently that they
can double their weight several times a day. As part of the photosynthesis process algae
211

�</text>
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            <description>A summary of the resource.</description>
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              <elementText elementTextId="18254">
                <text>Plants require at least 14 mineral elements for their nutrition. These include the  macronutrients nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg)  and sulphur (S) and the micronutrients boron (B), chlorine (Cl), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn),  copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), nickel (Ni) and molybdenum (Mo). These are generally obtained from  the soil. Crop production is often limited by low bioavailability of essential mineral elements  and/or the presence of excessive concentrations of potentially toxic heavy metals, such as Fe,  Mn, Cu, Cr, Cd, Pb, Zn and Al in the soil solution. In the past few years, responses of plants  to heavy metals have received increasing attention. On one hand due to industrial activities,  toxic heavy metals such as Cd, Zn, Cu, Cr, Pb have been released into the biosphere and  represent a widespread environmental pollution. High concentrations of heavy metals in the  soil can inhibit plant growth and reduce crop yields, which can affect sustainable development  severely. In order to study the molecular response of plants to heavy metals, the gene  expression data of model crop plants especially in Brassicaceae family were analyzed by  searching several databases available online. In the first part of this work the publicly  available online resources for these plants from websites such as http://www.ncbi.nih.gov,  http://www.tigr.org, http://www.brassica.info, and related sites were searched to collect  nucleotide sequences that encode heavy metal ATPases and transporter protein homologues.  The second part of this work focuses on the expression of these genes in plants grown at  different concentrations of Cu, Zn, and Cd. Real time PCR (RT-PCR) experiments will be  carried out to analyze the expression of these genes in roots and shoots of B. nigra and B.  juncea treated with different concentrations of metals.  Keywords: Arabidopsis thaliana, Brassicaceae, phylogenetic tree, Metal ATPases,  phytoremediation</text>
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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

A Comparison Of Futures Prices On Turkdex With Conventional Pricing Theory
Kusakci Ali Osman, Kusakci,Sumeyye
International University of Sarajevo, Ilidza, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E-mails: akusakci@ius.edu.ba,skusakci@ius.edu.ba

Abstract
Derivatives are very sophisticated financial innovations and require highly sophisticated
financial markets before they are introduced successfully. The well-known arbitrage free
pricing theory applied when pricing derivative securities is based on some assumptions,
which may not be verified in many of the emerging markets. Therefore, the applicability of
the conventional theory to the emerging markets must be studied in details. This paper
questions conformity of conventional arbitrage free pricing theory for emerging markets and
discusses efficiency on newly organized Turkish derivative exchange (TURKDEX). Based on
the market data in Turkey a comparison will be made between daily market prices and
theoretical prices of 43 futures contracts. The results show that currency futures in
TURKDEX are evaluated by market players fairly but ISE-30 and ISE-100 contracts offer
arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, this work shows that theory and market differences rely
mainly on inexperienced market players and newly established market regulations.
Conservative regulations on short-selling are another problem to be solved.
Keywords: futures, TURKDEX, cost of carry, arbitrage theory, emerging markets, pricing
1.INTRODUCTION
Forward and future contracts are two basic types of derivatives, where they referred in the
literature as unconditional derivatives (Daniel Siegel &amp; Diane Siegel 1990).While evaluating
them, the basic pricing approach is “cost of carry” approach (CC). CC is derived from an
arbitrage-free market theory, while an arbitrage-free market is characterized as follows
(Rudolph &amp; Schäfer 2010);





There is no taxes, transaction and information cost
Short selling is allowed
All market players have the same opportunities on the market
A cash flow stream and a derivative instrument can be arbitrarily divided.

However, the above mentioned assumptions are only valid for a well-developed market and
can be justified only under the well-known efficient market hypothesis (EMH) according to
which the current price of a stock fully reflects, at any time, available information exploited
by traders. As new information becomes available, any imbalance is immediately detected
and accounted for by a counteracting change in stock market price (Fama 1965). Thus, the
prices follow random walk and there are no clear arbitrage opportunities on an efficient
market (Malkiel 2003; Atsalakis &amp; Valavanis 2009). This, however, requires high liquidity,
sufficient depth and well informed market participants. On the other hand, emerging financial
markets, like Turkish capital market, may exhibit a different profile and may suffer from low
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

liquidity and poor information dissemination which bears arbitrage changes and speculations
on the market.
After each financial crisis many researchers blamed derivatives and questioned their presence
(Buckley 2011). Most developing countries are still skeptical of positive effects of the
derivative markets on the financial markets as a whole and apply strict regulations, which
complicate trading and discourage international investors.
This paper questions conformity of conventional arbitrage free pricing theory for emerging
markets and discusses efficiency of newly organized Turkish derivative exchange
(TURKDEX). Based on the market data in Turkey a comparison will be made between daily
market prices and theoretical prices of 43 futures contracts, which had been traded on
TURKDEX in years 2005 and 2006.
2.RELATED WORK
Although derivatives started to be traded on over-the-counter markets and on Istanbul Stock
Exchange (ISE) in 2001, the TURKDEX formally became the only entity authorized by the
Capital Markets Board (CMB) to offer financial derivatives in 2005 (Kusakci 2010). Clearing
is handled by the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Settlement and the Custody Bank Inc.
(Takasbank) (Kasman 2009). Given its short history there are not many scientific work
addressing TURKDEX and its effect on Turkish capital market.
Bektaş et al. (2010) tested the price efficiency of TRYUSD and TRYEUR futures contracts
and utilized a random walk model. Low level of coefficient of determination for TRY/$ and
TRY/€ contracts supports the existence of random walk for TRY/€ contracts. They mentioned
also that TRY/€ contracts are more volatile than TRY/$ contracts in TURKDEX. Thus, EMH
cannot be falsified for TRY/$ and TRY/€ contracts. Thus, conventional pricing theory is
applicable to these financial instruments.
Avci and Çinko (2010) studied hedging effectiveness of the ISE-30 index futures contract and
the effect of hedging period length on hedging effectiveness. The results of the study
presented that the ISE-30 index futures contract is effective in hedging the risks associated
with the Securities Investment Trusts (SITs) traded in ISE. Their study indicates that the
weekly hedges are more effective than daily hedges (Avci &amp; Çinko 2010).
Kasman (2009) examined long memory property of the Turkish futures market. For modeling
the volatility, the GARCH and FIGARCH models have been employed. The estimation
results provide evidence supporting the FIGARCH models. The results of the FIGARCH
model show that estimates of the long memory parameters are significantly different from
zero, suggesting that volatility series are long memory processes in the Turkish futures
market.
Doğru and Bulut (2012) investigated relation between daily closing prices and trading volume
of USD futures contracts in the TURKDEX. The results show no significant relation between
prices and trading volume in the short run, but a clear price-volume relation in the long run.
Their work showed that the data concerning trading volume affect prices. They conclude that
the trading volume changes might be used in price forecasts and thus the futures market in
Turkey is not efficient. We should point out that this study analysis only TRY/USD futures
contracts from January 2, 2009 to December 30, 2011. Hence, the findings cannot be
generalized to all derivative instruments traded on TURKDEX.
Another question arising while analyzing derivative markets is how efficient they are as
hedging tools during financial crisis. Kalayci and Zeynel (2009) addressed hedging
251

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

effectiveness through the index contracts in the Turkish Derivatives Exchange. The analysis
employs a dynamic hedging at the short position against the risk of the fall in prices, and ISE30 Index contracts are found hedge effective.
Yılmaz and Kurun (2007) presented empirical evidence from the Turkish capital market by
investigating the risk perception of the companies and discussed the impact of derivatives on
the financial stability in Turkish economy. They focused on non-financial companies that play
a vital role in foreign trade operations and have close relations with the banking industry. The
results showed that most of the companies give priority to currency risk, followed by
commodity price risk. Surprisingly, they do not pay much attention to interest rate risk.
Although the firms know derivative products traded on TURKDEX, most of them are
reluctant to use them because of the lack of education and experience.
3.COST OF CARRY APPROACH
Based on the aforementioned assumptions in introduction section, CC secures a simple
evaluation idea, which equates price of a futures contract to cost of holding a spot market
position on the underlying asset, as in (1).
F0,T  S 0 e rT

where

S0

Spot price at time 0

F0,T

Futures/Forward price at time 0 with a settlement at time T

e rT

Annual interest factor with interest rate of r for a time period of (0-T)

(1)

The arbitrage-free market, which is the underlying assumption in equation (1), rests upon a
smoothly running market mechanism and foresees that each arbitrage opportunity will be
detected and utilized. Two possible strategies, namely cash and carry and reverse cash and
carry strategies, to take advantage of this arbitrage profits explains this market mechanism
(Luenberger 1998).
Under the assumption of an arbitrage free market the theoretical price of a futures contract
paying dividends with a continuous rate of q can be calculated as (Hull 2008);
Ft ,T  St e ( r q )(T t )

(2)

where
St

Index value at time t

Equation (2) relies on an implicit assumption that a stock basket representing perfectly the
ISE-30 and ISE-100 Indices can be rebuilt and this stock basket is paying dividends (Rudolph
&amp; Schäfer 2010).
The evaluation of currency futures relies on arbitrage opportunities when same money
invested in the foreign currency. A TRY/$ or TRY/€ futures contract can be evaluated as
follows;
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Ft ,T  St e

( r r f )( T t )

(3)

where
Interest rate of the corresponding foreign country

rf

4.EMPIRICAL STUDY ON FUTURES IN TURKDEX
4.1.Dataset and Methodology
In this part an empirical analysis is conducted on the futures contracts written on ISE-30 and
ISE-100 Indices and TRY/$ and TRY/€ exchange rates traded in TURKDEX in the years
2005 and 2006. This time period is selected because it covers developing phase, first two
years, of the TURKDEX. The number of contracts covered in this period and number of
dataset is given in Table 1. Here we will present only the results on annual basis due to the
limited space of the paper.
Number of contracts

Number of dataset

ISE-30 Index futures

12

1314

ISE-100 Index futures

7

747

TRY/$ Futures

12

1392

TRY/€ Futures

12

1392

Table 1: Dataset used in empirical study
While pricing the contracts transaction costs are not considered. Additionally, no physical
delivery of the underlying asset takes place. Dividend rate q is taken as 2% in 2005 and 1.8%
in 2006 based on the interview made with the market makers on TURKDEX.
The condition for efficiency of ISE-Index futures can be defined as follows: the expected
value of and arbitrage profit following a Cash and Carry or Reverse Cash and Carry-strategy
must be zero. Thus, the Null-Hypothesis and its alternative can be formulated as:

H 0 :  f  r
H1 :  f   r

(4)

f

Expected value of fair price F

r

Expected value of market price P

When the results are analyzed, the difference between fair price and market price increases in
2006 when compared with 2005. This indicates more volatile prices in 2006. Table 2 shows
the market price, fair price and differences between both prices as well as the related statistics.
As indicated by the given t-values of 4.653 and 7.801 for 2005 and 2006 respectively, the null
hypothesis must be rejected. Thus, there exist arbitrage opportunities for ISE-30 contracts on
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

TURKDEX. The results can be observed also for ISE-100 futures contracts based on the
given values in Table 3.
Mostly futures price at the market lies under the expected spot price for both types of
contracts in TURKDEX. This phenomena is called Normal Backwardation (Hull 2008).
The arbitrage opportunities on the market can be justified with following arguments:
There is no practical way of short selling.
Individual expectations are given more weight than theoretical analysis by market
participants. As volatility of underlying asset increases, mispricing increases.
US Dollar and Euro spot prices are quoted with a bid-ask spread. For cash and carry strategy
ask-prices are taken spot prices. The expected value of arbitrage opportunity for the futures
must be not positive. Thus, the null-hypothesis and its alternative for cash and carry read as;

H 0 : E ( Ft ,r  Ft , f )  0
H1 : E ( Ft ,r  Ft , f )  0

(5)

On the other hand the reverse cash and carry strategy requires a long position in the futures
market. In order that there exists no arbitrage opportunities, the null-hypothesis and its
alternative for reverse cash and carry read as;

H 0 : E ( Ft , f  Ft ,r )  0
H1 : E ( Ft , f  Ft ,r )  0

(6)
all
F

2005

ISE-30

P

St. Dev.

8,221 8,614 1,383 4,381 4,558 1,138 5,539 5,444 1,404

(n)

1314 1314 1314 566

Mean

43,500 45,294 1,795 36,065 37,302 1,237 49,127 51,341 2,214

Min

29,825 30,036 -1,574 29,825 30,036 -1,574 38,775 40,492 -1,167

Max

60,350 63,890 8,282 50,625 50,637 4,512 60,350 63,890 8,282

t-value

F-P

P

F

2006

566

5,464

F-P

566

P

749

F

749

4,653

F-P

749

7,801

Table 2: Market price, fair price and difference of both prices with related t-statistics for ISE30 index futures
all
F

2005

ISE-100

P

St. Dev.

4,056 4,082 1,521 2,151 1,793 0,489 4,094 4,092 1,545

(n)

747

747

F-P

747

P

F

2006

41
254

41

F-P

41

P

706

F

706

F-P

706

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Mean

39,149 40,691 1,542 36,636 37,318 0,682 39,295 40,887 1,592

Min

31,325 31,993 -4,163 32,025 33,445 -0,120 31,325 31,993 -4,163

Max

50,275 50,366 5,829 39,875 39,851 1,560 50,275 50,366 5,829

t-value

7,326

1,560

7,310

Table 3: Market price, fair price and difference of both prices with related t-statistics for ISE100 index futures
Table 4 summarizes the results of the study for TRY/$ futures contracts. The average price
differences are 0.002 and -0.009 for cash and carry and reverse cash and carry strategies
respectively. This value is almost zero in 2005 while a slight increase is observable due to the
highly volatile exchange rates in 2006. TRY/€ contracts give a similar picture as given in
Table 5.The results indicate that there is practically no arbitrage opportunities to be exploited
for both currency futures.
5.CONCLUSION
For certain, the derivative products as one of the main triggers of deep recession we
experienced must be examined more precisely, especially in developing economies like
Turkey. Since their presence reflects not only huge potentials but also huge risks for an
emerging market. This study compared the market prices on TURKDEX with theoretical fair
prices under arbitrage-free market assumption.
The results showed that the index futures on ISE-30 and ISE-100 are undervalued and exhibit
reverse cash and carry arbitrage opportunities. However, this is not entirely feasible, as the
market does not allow short-selling of ISE-30 and ISE-100 indices or any stock basket
recreating the indices.
The currency futures contracts, TRY/$ and TRY/€, do not offer any practical arbitrage profit
as the market prices and fair prices are not moving beyond the arbitrage-free band.

255

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

TRY/$ P

Fask Fask- P Fbid Fbid- P P

Fask Fask- P Fbid Fbid- P P

Fask Fask- P Fbid Fbid- P

St. Dev. 0.096 0.092 0.016 0.091 0.017 0.032 0.035 0.009 0.035 0.009 0.110 0.104 0.020 0.103 0.020
(n)

1392 1392 1392

Mean

1.430 1.428 0.002 1.421 -0.009 1.381 1.382 0.000 1.375 -0.006 1.464 1.461 0.003 1.454 -0.010

Min

1.284 1.284 -0.051 1.278 -0.152 1.284 1.284 -0.039 1.278 -0.037 1.313 1.318 -0.051 1.311 -0.152

Max

1.882 1.772 0.143 1.763 0.043 1.477 1.482 0.031 1.475 0.032 1.882 1.772 0.143 1.763 0.043

t-value

0.487

1392 1392

570

570

-2.421

570

570

-0.126

570

823

823

-3.203

823

823

0.587

823

-1.921

Table 4: Pricing of TRY/$ contracts for cash and carry and reverse cash and carry strategies and their comparison with market price.
TRY/€ P

FaskFask P
Fbid Fbid- P P

FaskFbidFask P
Fbid P
P

FaskFask P
Fbid Fbid- P

St. Dev. 0.154 0.148 0.020 0.148 0.020

0.0740.076 0.013 0.076 0.013 0.179 0.172 0.023 0.171 0.024

(n)

1393 1393 1393 1393 1393

570 570

Mean

1.789 1.788 0.002 1.779 -0.010 1.7291.731 -0.002 1.723 -0.006 1.831 1.827 0.004 1.818 -0.013

Min

1.559 1.562 -0.062 1.554 -0.148 1.5951.598 -0.052 1.590 -0.051 1.559 1.562 -0.062 1.554 -0.148

Max

2.357 2.248 0.138 2.237 0.052

t-value

0.266

-1.767

570

570

570

823

823

823

823

823

1.9071.934 0.042 1.925 0.043 2.357 2.248 0.138 2.237 0.052
-0.503

-1.374

0.476

-1.492

Table 5: Pricing of TRY/€ contracts for cash and carry and reverse cash and carry strategies and their comparison with market price.
256

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EFFECTIVENESS : AN APPLICATION ON TURKDEX-ISE 30 INDEX FUTURES
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Bektaş, C., Karan, M.B. &amp; Arslan, Ö., 2010. Price efficiency in option markets: An empirical
study on Izmir derivatives exchange. The 6th International Scientific Conference “Business
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Doğru, T. &amp; Bulut, Ü., 2012. The Price-Volume Relation in the Turkish Derivatives
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Hull, J.C., 2008. Options, Futures and Other Derivatives 7th ed., Prentice Hall.
Kalayci, Ş. &amp; Zeynel, E., 2009. HEDGING IN FUTURES MARKETS : HEDGE RATIO
AND HEDGING EFFECTIVENESS BASED ON THE USE OF TURKDEX-ISE 30 INDEX
CONTRACTS. Suleyman Demirel University The Journal of Faculty of Economics and
Administrative Sciences, 14(3), pp.39-63.
Kasman, A., 2009. Estimating Value-at-Risk for the Turkish Stock Index Futures in the
Presence of Long Memory Volatility. Central Bank Review, pp.1-14.
Kusakci, A.O., 2010. Bewertung von an TURKDEX gehandelten Futureskontrakten: Wie gut
ist die konventionelle Bewertungstheorie am Türkischen Finanzmarkt anwendbar?, VDM
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Luenberger, D., 1998. Investment Science, New York: Oxford Unıversity Press.
Malkiel, B.G., 2003. Passive Investment Strategies and Efficient Markets. European Financial
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Rudolph, B. &amp; Schäfer, K., 2010. Derivative Finanzmarktinstrumente - eine
anwendungsbezogene Einführung in Märkte, Strategien und Bewertung 2nd ed., Berlin:
Springer.
Siegel, Daniel &amp; Siegel, Diane, 1990. The Futures Markets -Arbitrage, Risk Management and
Portfolio Strategies, London: McGraw-Hill.
Yılmaz, M. &amp; Kurun, E., 2007. The Impact of Derivatives on Financial Stability in Turkish
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257

�</text>
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                <text>Derivatives are very sophisticated financial innovations and require highly sophisticated  financial markets before they are introduced successfully. The well-known arbitrage free  pricing theory applied when pricing derivative securities is based on some assumptions,  which may not be verified in many of the emerging markets. Therefore, the applicability of  the conventional theory to the emerging markets must be studied in details. This paper  questions conformity of conventional arbitrage free pricing theory for emerging markets and  discusses efficiency on newly organized Turkish derivative exchange (TURKDEX). Based on  the market data in Turkey a comparison will be made between daily market prices and  theoretical prices of 43 futures contracts. The results show that currency futures in  TURKDEX are evaluated by market players fairly but ISE-30 and ISE-100 contracts offer  arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, this work shows that theory and market differences rely  mainly on inexperienced market players and newly established market regulations.  Conservative regulations on short-selling are another problem to be solved.  Keywords: futures, TURKDEX, cost of carry, arbitrage theory, emerging markets, pricing</text>
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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Kılıç, S., Kendirli, H. Ç. (2005). Endüstriyel pazarlarda ilişkisel pazarlamanın yeni
ekonomideki yeri ve önemi. Üçüncü Sektör Kooperatifçilik Dergisi, 148 (2). ss: 20-36
Oktay, E., Balkanlı, A. ve Salepçioğlu, A.(2004) Bilgi Toplumunda Yeni Ekonomi ve
Dönüşüm Stratejileri, http://iibf.ogu.edu.tr/kongre/bildiriler/04-02.pdf.
Öztürk, L.(2005), Türkiye’de Dijital Eşitsizlik: TÜBİTAK –BİLTEN Anketleri Üzerine Bir
Değerlendirme, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı :24,
S.11-131.
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economics research areas. Journal of Economic Dynamics&amp; Control, 26:1651-1675.
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Selçuk Üniversitesi İletişim Dergisi, Cilt:5, Sayı: 3, 5-19, Temmuz.
Şahin, L., Çetin, B. I., Yıldırım, K. (2010). Bilişim Teknolojilerindeki Gelişmelerin
İşletmelerin Strateji ve Maliyetleri Üzerine Etkileri.
www.iudergi.com/tr/index.php/sosyalsiyaset/article/view/98.
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Yeloğlu, H. O.(2004). Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Değişkenleri: Türkiye ve OECD Karşılaştırmaları,
3. Ulusal Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kariyeri, Eskişehir.
www. tuik. gov.tr. (18.08.2010), Haber Bülten, Sayı : 148
http://www.tuik.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?tb_id=25&amp;ust_id=8: 26.04.2012
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e_uk_2009_25_5_10_latest_nn_sr1.doc.:26.04.2012.
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30:199–220
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Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University

Economic Costs And Benefits Of The Eu Enlargement: The Impact On The Eu And
Seec’s
Kurtagić Haris, Nuroglu Elif
International University of Sarajevo, Sarajevo, B&amp;H
E-mails: kurtagic.h@hotmail.com,enuroglu@ius.edu.ba
Abstract
The South-eastern enlargement of the European Union will be the sixth enlargement since
establishing the European Community in 1957. The research uses the Gravity model, and
measures the factors that have an influence on trade. The Gravity model involves coefficients
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that explain the pattern of trade with GDP, geographical distance, population, and several
dummy variables. Trade that is explained by Gravity model includes two regions, EU-15
(inclusive Bulgaria and Romania) and SEEC’s. The reason why Bulgaria and Romania are
included, even if they are part of the SEEC’s, is to acquire as accurate pattern of trade as
possible. Comparing the data from 2010, the gravity model describes trade flows between 23
countries. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze trade flows between two regions.
Taking into consideration the costs of enlargement, this research examines the effects of the
trade, its significance on the development of SEEC’s after enlargement, well-being of
countries that are not part of the EU, as well as it offers a solution for the South-east European
countries. Therefore, the solution that this research proposes is a model based on creation of
the Balkan Union.
Keywords: EU-Enlargement, Gravity model, South-eastern Europe, European union, Trade
flows.
1.INTRODUCTION
The South-eastern enlargement of the European Union (EU) – the sixth since 1973 – is a huge
test for the EU, as well as for the applicant countries. The European Union consists of 27
members. Besides incumbent members, there are candidates, as well as potential candidates.
Inclusive candidates: Croatia, Macedonia (FYR), Montenegro, Iceland, Serbia and Turkey,
the potential candidates will comprise the next enlargement of 9 countries. The potential
candidates are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. This enlargement will increase
the EU area by 25%, the number of population by 19%, and absolute GDP by 5%. Although,
the exact time pattern of accession is not clear yet, the European Commission plans to start
with a group of 3 states that consist of Croatia, Montenegro and Iceland. Turkey is not sure
yet, whether to access the Union or not, because the country has strong economy, and many
analytics think that joining the Union would hurt Turkish economy.
On the other hand, the applicant countries of South-eastern Europe are relatively poor
countries with a GDP per capita below the EU average. Hence, the average GDP per capita of
nine countries is $10,490 that would be 3 times lower compared to EU-27 or 4 times lower
compared to EU-15.
Similar to the third EU enlargement, the next enlargement would be a new challenge for the
EU countries, as the integration of poor with rich countries increases heterogeneity. The
South-east European countries will enter the EU on the basis of the Treaty of Accession. Once
they access the EU, the members are part of a union and a single market. One union of 27
countries with over 501 million consumers, which have access to a single market, is of huge
importance for customers. Construction of a single market of the European Union has brought
the new impact, and improved the emergence of a common EU policy such as competition
policy. The EU constantly works on improvement of common policies, especially, on a
common market. Those policies have gained great importance that increases over time. The
policies are important, since they strengthen mutual trade, improve the quality of products and
services, then they expand a single market, and the most important thing is that they reduce
trade barriers and increase positive effects of the common market. As a result, the EU policies
preserve the good functioning of market, and the European Commission prevents or corrects
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the non-competitive behaviour of companies. When it comes to South-east European
countries (SEEC’s), the fact is that its consumers enjoy a freedom of choice that is diversified
by almost the same prices, lower quality and a fewer innovations comparing to the EU
standards. The competition is present between SEEC’s, but they are not competitive to the EU
single market. Those companies cannot achieve scale of economies or competitive advantages
as the EU countries do. Thus, this research shows economic costs and benefits that the EU
enlargement brings to SEEC’s. It presents gains from trade for both, the European Union and
South-east European Countries. This paper looks at the economic costs and benefits of the
enlargement of the EU, as well as the impact that the enlargement would bring to the Southeast European countries.
2.MAASTRICHT TREATY, EUROPEAN UNION, SINGLE MARKET, AND SINGLE
CURRENCY – EURO
In order to improve trade, six countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and
the Netherlands) have adopted first four regulations for a common market in agriculture,
finance and regulation of governing competition. On 1 January 1973, Denmark, Ireland and
the United Kingdom joined the EU. Greece became the 10th member of the EU in 1981 and
Spain and Portugal join Union five years later. The situation was stable until the Berlin Wall
fell in 1989, so the European Economic Community (EEC) member states were negotiating
over a new treaty at Maastricht in December 1991. However, it included intergovernmental
cooperation in foreign policy and internal security that resulted in the Maastricht Treaty,
which created European Union on 1 November 1993. The collapse of communism throughout
Central and Eastern Europe has connected Europeans. As a result of that, in 1993 the Single
Market was completed with freedom of movement of goods, services, people and money.
Three new members came in 1995, Austria, Finland and Sweden.
The euro, Europe’s single currency replaced the old currencies on 1 January 2002, when 12
EU Member States adopted it as their official currency, creating the euro zone. The euro zone
makes life easier for business, consumers and travellers. On 1 May 2004, 10 countries got
memberships in the EU: the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia, while Bulgaria and Romania on 1 January 2007.
Today, the EU has 27 member states. Enlargement to 27 was one of the most important steps
in the history of European integration. 12 new countries in the EU, not only have expanded
geographical size and population, but they have created an end for splitting the continent into
two since 1945. As the idea of the EU says, democratic freedom was settled in 12 new
member states. The creation of the single market gave European Union countries a strong
incentive to liberalize previously protected monopolistic markets. Within the Union, Member
States have removed all tariffs on trade, while having unified tariffs on imports from outside
the EU. It means that no matter which country is the importer, the tariff paid on products is
the same, and once customs procedures are completed, goods can be shipped throughout the
EU without additional duties. In accordance to rules and regulations of the European Union,
member of the Union should be guaranteed:
188

Price stability,
Stability of currency,
Limitations of public debt, 60% of GDP,
Economic balance with limited deficit of national budget,
Investment stability, in sense of level of long-run interest rates, and

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

-

3% of GDP.

The European Union is formed on the principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human
rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law, principles that are common to the
Member States. The EU has a motto, ‘United in diversity’, and May 9 is commemorated each
year as Europe Day. By singing the Treaty of Rome in 1957, the EU members promised to
abolish barriers to trade freely across the European continent. In Tupy (2003), the benefits of
free movement of goods are seen as major benefits of consumers. Generally, the European
Union has integrated the market, and established common rules. Those rules are implemented
through technical standards of consumer protection, environmental standards, competition
policy, and fairness in the workplace (Tupy, 2003, p. 6). Thus, for the SEEC’s the common
market could be a place for integration of every aspect of the state. Once the boarders are
opened to flow of goods and capital, people would look at historic events less, and they will
go for personal interest.
3.EUROPEAN UNION TODAY
Today, European Union exists as a union that aims to increase economic and political
circumstances. The logic behind that is to deliver a peace, stability, and prosperity, to help
improve living standards, promote a single currency that will build a single market, where
people, goods, services and capital could move within the European Union. It is not a
government or state or international organization, but a novel entity which respects human
rights. Many countries, a huge single market, and single currency provide many benefits, but
for whom? As a single market, the EU is a major world trading power. The single market
aims at putting down barriers and simplifying rules to enable everyone in the EU to take
advantage of the opportunities given to them by having access to 27 countries and 501 million
people. Looking from economics perspective, small countries from Europe cannot achieve
growth and prosperity without the EU. Therefore, in order to compete on the world stage and
achieve economies of scale, the European countries need a broader base, and the European
single market provides it. The single market is one of the European Union’s greatest
achievements. Restrictions on trade and free competition between member countries have
gradually been eliminated; therefore, the whole system helps standards of living to rise.
Within the EU, all border controls on goods have been eliminated, together with customs
controls on people, but the police still conduct random checks as part of the fight against
crime and drugs. When it comes to tax barriers, then tax barriers have been reduced by
partially aligning national Value Added Tax rates, which must be agreed by the EU member
states.
There is also the EU’s competition policy that tries to ensure that within the European single
market competition is not only free but also fair. Therefore, in the EU single market there is
no cartel, or unfair monopoly.
The European Union was created to succeed in political objectives, through achieving
economic cooperation. In modern terms, people call it as an “area of freedom, security and
justice”, where every citizen has an equal justice and protection by the law.
The European Commission represents the EU in international negotiations at the World Trade
Organizations (WTO). Right now, the EU would like to put more emphasis on quality of
food, precautionary principle (“better safe than sorry”) and animal welfare.
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The EU has regional policy stating that European Funds should be used to improve
development in regions that are lagging behind, to increase standard of living in areas that are
in decline, to help young people and the long-term unemployed find work. One important and
interesting thing is that European Funds are also allocating funds to farming and to lessfavoured rural areas.
In order to fund its policies, the European Union has an annual budget that in 2010 amounted
to more than € 140 billion. The budget is financed from the EU’s own resources that cannot
exceed 1.23 % of the total gross national income of all the member states (Fontaine, 2010, p.
35). The resources are mainly collected from:
-

Customs duties on products imported into the EU,
A percentage of the value added tax (VAT) levied on goods and services throughout
the EU, and
Contributions from the member states, reflecting the wealth of each country.

The European Union has more influence on the world stage when it speaks with a single voice
in international affairs such as trade negotiations.
4.European Enlargement
On January 1, 2007, the EU recorded the fifth enlargement. Bulgaria and Romania became
new members of the EU. Before that, on May 1, 2004 the EU enlarged from 15 to 25 member
countries. In the period from 1990 to 1999, the EU invested more than $85 billion to support
the new Member States during the accession process (Delegation of the European Union to
the United States of America, 2011, p. 21). Every new enlargement of the European Union is
seen as a historic step toward long-term objectives of the union. Thus, any country that
respects liberty, democracy, human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law is
qualified to apply for EU membership. Applying for the EU membership is the start of a long
and rigorous process. Once a country submits an application to the Council of the EU, it
activates a sequence of EU procedures that may, or may not, result in the country being
invited to become a member. After applying for membership, the process starts with
accomplishing the Copenhagen Criteria. There are not many criteria, but, in essence, every
country has to work on it, since the criteria are detailed. Fontaine (2010) mentions these
criteria as follows:
-

Institutions that provides high democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect
for and protection of minorities.
Strong market economy and the ability to cope with threats and pressure within the
Union.
Ability to take on the obligations of membership, accomplishing the aims of the Union
(Fontaine, 2010, p. 16).

Once the Council unanimously agrees to begin accession negotiations, discussions may be
formally opened. The negotiation has got 35 separate policy areas that are called “chapters”,
and each candidate country proceeds separately from one stage of the process to next. Each
stage must satisfy all conditions, and then the candidate country could move on. Thank to this
process, the prospect of accession acts as a powerful incentive for reform, providing
simultaneously benefits to the EU and to its acceding members.
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A candidate country is one whose EU membership application has been accepted by all
relevant EU institutions, allowing it to begin accession negotiations. Once negotiations are
concluded to the desired level for both sides, a comprehensive Draft Accession Treaty is
submitted for approval by the Council of the EU, the European Commission, and the
European Parliament. After the treaty is approved, it is signed by the candidate country and
the representatives of all EU Member States. Afterward, all Member States and the candidate
get the treaty for ratification. Once the ratification process is done, the treaty enters into force
on its scheduled date, and the candidate country becomes an EU Member State.
5.Enlargement of the South-eastern Europe
The next enlargement in the EU is related to Western Balkan region. The structure and
procedures to be applied on the Western Balkan region are the same as it was for the former
candidates. A first significant step in this process is the establishment of European partnership
with Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Serbia. It would be a very
important factor that assists the Western Balkan states in preparing for membership within
rational framework and in developing action plans with timetables of reforms.
“The main instrument that created by the European Union for Balkan integration is the
Stabilization and Association Process (SAP), launched in 2000, that was established as a long
process in order to establish development of the Western Balkans both in terms of political
effort and financial and human resources” (Montanari, 2005, p. 59). The aim of the SAP is to
create conditions that alike to the EU. Thus, the candidates work on preparation for future EU
standards.
When it comes to SEEC’s enlargement, conflicts can arise between European Union
members as a result from its redistribution effects. EU members observe SEEC’s as a
geographical area for expanding single market that can import more goods and services from
the current EU members. Once the union is enlarged, there is a new distribution of income
that can create lower income for some of the EU 27. That is not the only threat for EU 27,
high unemployment is another one. Taking this fact into consideration, when more
immigration happens, the neighbouring countries of the SEEC’s might be affected more. First
targets are Slovenia and Hungary as very close countries to candidate of the EU. Previous five
enlargements are observed if they were Pareto efficient for all member states and the
candidate states, and evidence suggests that enlargements were not Pareto efficient in every
enlargement round (Schneider T. P., 2007, p. 570). Thus, as Schneider (2007) states, the next
enlargement is going to be very complicated from aspects of EU redistribution and from the
free movement of labour. Thus, “the EU Eastern enlargement will adversely affect labourintensive and low-tech sectors in the EU member countries but will stimulate growth of skillintensive service industries and some capital-intensive and high-tech industries in Western
Europe” (Schneider T. P., 2007, p. 572).
Table 1
Basic Socioeconomic Indicators for South-eastern Europe (2010)
Population
(millions)

191

Per capita GDP
(current US$)

Unemployment 2009
(percent of labour force)

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Kosovo
Macedonia
Montenegro
Romania
Serbia

3.20
3.76
7.54
4.42
1.82
2.06
0.63
21.44
7.29

3,678
4,409
6,325
13,754
3,059
4,460
6,510
7,538
5,269

6.8
9.1
45.4
32.2
19.1
6.9
16.6

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicator.
Monstat, Department of statistics of labour market, life conditions, social services
and household consumption.

As a result, the candidate countries would have an incentive to export workers, rather than to
attract them. Table 1 shows the unemployment rate, population and GDP per capita for
SEEC’s from 2010. From the table it is obvious that for relatively slow countries the
unemployment rate is high. Kosovo has unemployment of 45.4%, but the real unemployment
rate is around 25%, since the country has a problem with a gray economics. The other
countries have acceptable rates, but still high that is a threat for labour migration and labour
inflows in the EU. Two biggest countries of the SEEC’s became the EU members, and
remaining 7 will bring 23 million new customers to the single market. If we take into account
GDP’s of SEEC’s than it is obvious that states have relatively low ones, comparing to the EU15 (4 time lower), and EU-27 (3 time lower). Some of the candidate countries are
economically weak, with high unemployment rate and low wages, and they will be ready to
adapt to the system of free movement of labour. However, the Union could apply the potential
limitations on the free movement of workers of new member. There was a case when the
United Kingdom joined the Union in 1973. The state had to accept the limitations on the free
movement of its workers within Belgium, France, Germany, and Luxembourg (Schneider T.
P., 2007, p. 574). This clause could be used when accepting SEEC’s to the Union, where
Austria, Slovenia, and Hungary might ask for limitations of free movements of these three
countries’ workers in order to sign accession treaty.
Within the EU, the gains from the enlargement could be redistributed from the either
relative winners of enlargement (members of the Union or the candidates) to the relative
losers of enlargement that can also be state from these two groups.
When it comes to trade flows in 2010, than from Table 2 we see that Croatia is a main
exporter to the EU-15 (BG+RO). The total import for the EU-15 (BG+RO) is 32.42% of total
of the SEEC’s. On the other hand, Croatia is the leader in imports, as well. The total export
from the EU (BG+RO) to Croatia is 39.32 of total of the SEEC’s exports. From that fact, it is
not surprising that the country is the first to access the union. After enlargement the imports
will be higher for each country, the members of the EU will export to SEEC’s and try to
import less. Croatia and Serbia to some extent manage their resources properly, but the rest
have to increase an export that is almost 40% of overall exports to SEEC’s.

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Table 2
EU-15 + BG and RO trade with South-eastern Europe by Country (2010)
EU-15+BG and RO Imports
Percentage of
Imports from
Million US$
SEEC’s
Croatia
Serbia
Macedonia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Albania
Montenegro

EU-15+BG and RO Exports
Percentage of
Exports to
Million US$
SEEC’s

4,149
3,867
1,738

32.42
30.22
13.59

9,069
6,414
2,081

39.32
27.81
9.03

1,732
1,157
152

13.53
9.04
1.19

2,557
2,442
500

11.09
10.59
2.17

6.Strategy
The strategy of the EU for creating sustainable growth and jobs encourages innovation within
businesses and investment in people that can design a knowledge-based society. Not only that,
but the idea is to attract more people into employment, and keep them in work longer as life
expectancy rises. Besides, the adaptability of workers and enterprises, provide better
education and skills, globalization and mobility would increase the well-being of the society.
By 2020, the EU aims to have accomplished the following targets:
-

75 % of the population aged 20-64 should be employed,
3 % of the EU’s GDP should be invested in R&amp;D,
The “20/20/20” targets in terms of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, renewable
energy production, and energy efficiency should be met.
The share of school dropouts should be under 10 % and at least 40 % of the population
between the ages of 30 and 34 should have a degree of diploma.
20 million fewer people should be living below the poverty line (Delegation of the
European Union to the United States of America, 2011, p. 38).

In order to accomplish the objectives, the EU adopted a proposal to re-focus R&amp;D and
innovation policy on major challenges; enhance the quality and attractiveness of Europe’s
higher education system; deliver sustainable economic and social benefits from a Digital
Single Market; enable the EU’s industrial base to become more competitive, promote
entrepreneurship, and develop new skills for workers; and ensure economic, social and
territorial cohesion by helping the poor and socially excluded.

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7.COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE SOUTH-EASTERN ENLARGEMENT
7.1.The Overall Economic Impact of the Enlargement
Taking into account the economic costs of enlargement, as well as the distribution of gain
among incumbent Member States, we should consider the broader benefits and costs for the
Union’s economy that would take place after the enlargement.
The countries of the last EU enlargement were highly welcomed in the EU alliance because
they belong to those of the developed countries in the EU, and, hence, did not only cost
nothing, but contributed to the EU budget with significant amount. In a case of the Southeastern enlargement, the EU incumbents are firstly concerned about the costs, rather than the
possible benefits.
Typically, this enlargement would enable consumers and companies to arrange their
businesses more efficiently, so that there would be higher output and income. Taking into
consideration the costs of enlargement the question is how the distribution of gains is shared
among the EU members. Those countries that have strong trade relations with the SEEC’s
will benefit.
The European enlargement process is by no means a win-win project, but relatively
unpredictable condition that creates both winners and losers. Due to the huge wage-gap
between East and West sides of Europe, there might be a migration wave from East to the
West, as a result of full involvement of East side of Europe in the single market.
On the other side, there are almost certain gains for some new members. Thus, the
incumbent members prolong the acceptance of those candidates. One obvious case is Turkey.
The country has applied for the European Union, and almost 17 years later in 2004, the EU
finally decided to open accession negotiations. This news was a real shock for almost each
member of the Union. That was in the period when Turkey was becoming stronger in its
economy. The country was showing signals of real and healthy economy. Thus, many EU
states appeared unwilling to accept Turkey to the European club. Immediately, some of them
emphasized that the applicant would have to accept few exceptions from the common
policies. Germany asked for permanent restrictions on the free movement of labour while
France and other members of the EU called for refusing an allocation of agriculture subsidies
to Turkish farmers (Schneider C. J., 2007, p. 85). Thus, from the case of Turkey, it is obvious
that EU members are only looking for distribution of gains. Current members will question
enlargement if a new state is to decrease the gains.
In this context, economic integration with the European Union is a challenging issue.
Official unemployment rates are very high, while “unofficial” estimates of unemployment
that include the large gray economy could be lower for 20%. Thus, it is obvious that SEEC’s
will benefit from the enlargement. They can export workers to neighbouring countries, even
they can increase net trade, but the costs will be imposed on the current members of the EU.

Table 3
EU-15 Countries’ Imports + BG and RO from South-eastern Europe (2010)
Country
194

Million US$

Percentage of the EU total
imports from the SEEC’s

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Italy
Germany
Austria
Greece
Romania
Spain
France
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Bulgaria
Belgium
Sweden
Denmark
Portugal
Finland
Ireland
Luxembourg
Total

4,426
3,047
1,680
744
488
411
396
378
344
338
267
106
60
41
27
23
11

34.61
23.83
13.14
5.82
3.82
3.21
3.10
2.96
2.69
2.64
2.09
0.83
0.47
0.32
0.21
0.18
0.09

12,787

Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics.

When it comes to patterns of trade in the past few years, the EU trade with the South-eastern
Europe has been in surplus; expressed in U.S. dollars. The largest trading partner of the
SEEC’s is Italy, which absorbs 43 percent of EU imports from the region and accounts for 33
percent of the exports (Montanari, 2005, p. 7). This suggests that geographical distance plays
a considerable role in determining trade patterns. Table 3 shows that in 2010 Italy accounts
for 34.61% of total imports from SEEC’s to EU-15 (BG+RO). That is the main reason why
SEEC’s trade mostly with their neighbouring partners. Behind Italy are Germany, Austria,
Greece and Romania. It shows that distance between capitals plays considerable role in
international trade. Countries that are away from the SEEC’s take account of around 10% of
total imports.
7.2.The Costs of Enlargement
When it comes to costs of the enlargement, then the most significant ones are: the costs for
public finances, the costs of labour market disruption, and the costs of wage competition
(Grabbe, 2001, p. 33). On the other hand, we have to take into account costs of the expansion
of membership as well. It means that the EU bureaucratic machinery is likely to grow to be
unmanageable. There is the added cost of preparing translations of all EU documents in
language of member state. However, the cost of preparing is in second place, behind the
reaching decisions.
Reaching decisions on a unanimous or qualified-majority basis is likely to become more
difficult (Richard E. Baldwin, 1997, p. 172). South-eastern countries have problems in
reaching decisions in their parliaments, and accession to the EU would make things worse,
since the new members would, very often, go for personal feelings, rather than for well-being
of the society. Voting prolong, and not reaching decision on time, would increase the costs of
bringing people to the parliament, and most important is the time spent while new regulations
could have already taken place.
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Nowadays, the situation of Croatia and its accession to the European Union is related
to neighbouring countries. Many analysts of macroeconomic issues warn saying that if
Croatia enters the EU; many mechanisms will change, especially for Bosnia and Herzegovina
and its exports and imports, because the EU asks for high criteria of product quality. As a
country with cheaper labour, Bosnia is going to be a place where Croatia produces licensed
products that are expensive to be produced in the EU. There are Croatian media, who speak
about negative consequences of accession to the EU. If Croatia joins the Union, it would
become small, political and economical unessential province inside the European giant
countries (R.I., 2012). The European Union is not a single country, but Union of different
people and countries (big and small), where member states represent their own interests on
European level better and more efficiently, then in a case they would, in today’s globalized
world, without the Union.
Table 4
EU-15 Countries’ Exports + BG and RO to South-eastern Europe (2010)
Country
Italy
Germany
Austria
Bulgaria
Greece
Netherlands
Romania
France
United Kingdom
Belgium
Spain
Denmark
Sweden
Ireland
Finland
Portugal
Luxembourg
Total

Million US$

Percentage of EU total
exports from the SEEC’s

6,116
5,428
2,775
1389
1,344
1,332
1,120
904
785
568
548
254
191
149
109
32
15

26.52
23.54
12.03
6.02
5.83
5.78
4.86
3.92
3.40
2.46
2.38
1.10
0.83
0.65
0.47
0.14
0.07

23,059

Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics.

Table 4 shows almost the same results as Table 3. Italy, with 26% is a leader in
exports from SEEC’s, where Germany, Austria, Bulgaria and Greece come after. One half of
the countries from the table have a total of 15% of overall exports that explains again
importance of distance between capitals.
7.3. The Economic Benefits of Enlargement
After enlargement, benefits will accumulate, not only to the member states of the Union, but
also to us, individual citizens. One of the principles on which the EU is based is that it will
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improve the welfare of its member states and their citizens. This process does not have appeal
to the government of the member state which have initiated the accession process; it is also
expected to have an influence on the citizens and their readiness to assist integration process.
The main economic benefits after enlargement are the classical ones generated by integration
processes. Thus, those benefits can be generated from expansion of the Single Market,
strengthening of the Union’s position in global markets and catching up with EU living
standards. When SEEC’s join the Union they will be passing from a free trade area for
manufactured products to a single market. The major benefit is free movement of workers,
which is a highly sensitive issue.
Enlargement will be good for the European economy. Enlargement will add over million
consumers to the single market that will create many new jobs in both the applicant countries
and the incumbent member states. Looking from perspective of European companies, they are
looking forward to seeing more states on the EU single market that would possibly reduce the
risk of doing business in the other half of the continent.
In the long-run, the applicant countries will need help from the EU in order to increase private
investment that will meet the EU environment and transport standards. The main economic
benefit of EU membership is a potential improvement in the investment climate of the Southeast European countries.
When the SEEC’s join the EU, participation in the single market should involve the end of
contingent protection (anti-dumping and safeguards). In1999, the total number of antidumping investigations opened was 86 (Nello, 2002, p. 296). It is obvious that some countries
will be better-off and some worse-off. Bosnia can increase the sale of its domestic tobacco
company`s products if it proves that the Croatian tobacco company is dumping in Bosnia (this
case was speculated in media in 2010).
The EU imposes environmental regulations that take into account environmental quality
protection, production processes, and products (Tupy, 2003, p. 9). One of the significant
benefits will be quality in the countries of South-eastern Europe. It will affect local producers,
and decrease their profits, but more importantly, the customers will be better-off. Besides,
citizens will enjoy higher air quality, water protection, pollution controls, and all other things
that create negative externality. For instance, people from Zenica (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
could have higher air quality, when Environmental Regulation Agency introduces pollution
control to Metal company.
8.GRAVITY MODEL
8.1. Gravity Model of EU-15 (including Bulgaria and Romania) and SEEC’s
The aim of this research is to analyze trade patterns between the EU and SEEC’s. Thus, the
research devotes much time analyzing trade between the European Union and South-eastern
Europe, and it uses one of the most popular models in International Economics – Gravity
model. Therefore, it is attractive to evaluate whether there could be a potential for trade
growth between the two groups. The answer to this question can be obtained by estimating a
gravity model of trade. Such model as gravity is very often applied to research trade patterns
between countries. The model that is used in this research is very similar to one that
Montanari (2005) uses while explanating trade patterns. Gravity model describes bilateral
trade patterns in accordance with socioeconomic and geographical characteristics of the
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countries measured (Montanari, 2005, p. 60). The gravity model is used to measure bilateral
trade flows between EU-15 and SEEC’s.
The countries included in the analysis are divided into two groups. First group consists of the
EU-15, while the other includes countries from the South-eastern Europe. Even if, Bulgaria
and Romania are the members of the SEEC’s, the research uses them as the EU members, to
get more precise results. EU-15 does not include Bulgaria and Romania, but EU-27 does, so
we obtain a real potential of the SEEC’s only if we include two countries into the first group.
Greece was a part of the EU-15, and, therefore, it counts in the first group of the model.
This research uses the data as from 2010. Thus, there are separate indicators for Montenegro
and Serbia. Due to lack of data, the analysis excludes Kosovo.
The equation of the Gravity model is as follows:
(1)
: is the export flows from EU-15 countries (including Bulgaria and Romania) to SEEC’s.
We take data for exports (2010) that are measured in current US Dollars, Millions.
: represents the GDP of the exporting country expressed in current US Dollars,
Millions.
: is the GDP of the importer country expressed in current US Dollars, Millions.
: is the distance between capitals of exporter and importer in kilometres.
: is the dummy which has 1 if exporter and importer share a common border and 0
otherwise.
: is the dummy variable which is 1 if exporter and importer countries use a common
currency and 0 otherwise.
: is a dummy variable which takes 1 for a specific importer and exporter country and
is used to capture the effects of any political, historical or cultural event between two
countries.
: describes error term.
Appendix A mentions data sources used in the model and explain the functions of the gravity
model. The model says that trade increases if countries have the same border, or they use the
same currency. In a case of signing a bilateral agreement, like CEFTA, the trade barriers
decrease and countries trade more.
8.2.The Basic Gravity Model
Table 5, which consists of 4 models, explains patterns of trade between the EU countries and
SEEC’s. In the first model, GDP of exporter country seems to have a positive effect on trade
flows and its coefficient of 1.06 shows that when GDP of exporter increases by 1%, its
exports increases by 1.06%. Similar result is given for the importer, where the coefficient of
0.78 shows the increase in trade flows when GDP of importer increases by 1%. There is
negative coefficient for the distance saying that when countries are further they trade less. In
order to decrease the cost of transportation, those countries trade mostly with neighbouring
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countries, and the model says that 1% increase in distance will decrease trade by 2.39%.
Besides that, the model uses dummies such as common borders and currency. While common
borders have a positive impact on trade with coefficient of 0.53, the common currency has a
negative effect with -0.62. This negative dummy might be a result of not using Euro.
Montenegro is the only one, who is a member of the Euro zone. The value of R2, 86%, shows
that this model explains 86% of the variation in trade flows between the EU and SEEC’s.
Table 5
Gravity Model: Regression Results
Variable

Model 1

lngdpexp

1.06
(0.07)
0.78
(0.11)
-2.39
(0.18)
0.53
(0.35)
-0.62
(0.30)

lngdpimp
lndist
BOR
CUR
bilateral

Model 2

Model 3

1.06
(0.07)
0.78
(0.11)
-2.34
(0.20)
0.58
(0.36)
-0.64
(0.30)
0.00
(0.00)

expfix

1.06
(0.07)
0.89
(0.09)
-2.52
(0.17)

1.06
(0.07)
0.76
(0.11)
-2.33
(0.20)
0.58
(0.36)
-0.74
(0.33)

-0.01
(0.02)
0.04
(0.05)
-11.54
3.36
0.86
0.81
252.13
273.05
101

cons

-11.30
(3.28)

-11.72
(3.35)

0.00
(0.02)
-0.01
(0.05)
-13.08
(3.07)

R2
RMSE
AIC
BIC
N

0.86
0.81
249.31
265.00
101

0.86
0.81
250.81
269.11
101

0.85
0.84
255.99
271.68
101

impfix

Model 4

8.3.Bilateral Effects Model
The equation used to estimate column 2 is:
(2)
where
is a dummy variable which takes 1 for a specific importer and exporter
country and is used to capture the effects of any political, historical or cultural event between
two countries on their trade flows, and all other variables are the same as Equation 1.
Second model has the same coefficient of GDP as the first one. Thus, if there is any increase
in GDP of exporter and importer countries, the trade would also boost. In the second model,
there is a slightly lower coefficient of distance, because the bilateral variable is included. The
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coefficient of common borders says that trade increases if two countries share the same
border.
8.4.Main Effects Model (Exporter and Importer Fixed Effects)
The equation used to estimate Model 3 is:
(3)
where
equals 1 whenever a country is exporting and 0 otherwise and
equals 1
whenever a country is importing and 0 otherwise. These dummies might differ depending on
the countries’ tendency to export and import.
This model does not include dummies and bilateral effects variables, but it has exporter and
importer fixed effects. In general, the model does not give a better picture; R2 is lower than
the first and second models, and even, Akaike`s information criteria (AIC) are worse.
8.5.Main Effects Model with Dummies
When we enlarge Model 3 with common border and common currency variables, the model
becomes the following:

(4)
The model has a higher R2 with 86%. The distance has a negative coefficient as usual. The
model says that neighbouring countries trade more with each other than other countries.
The results show that trade increases with economic size, measured by GDP in our model
while it decreases with distance between them. This kind of model could be very useful for
analyzing international trade; it is seen in the straightforwardness of explanation of trade
patterns that can be used to test the impact of new policy measures.
8.6.Results
Measuring overall economic impact of EU-enlargement is almost impossible task given that
there are problems of global economy, uncertainties, which could change the whole process.
The main benefits of enlargement for incumbent countries are not economic, but rather they
are related to stability and security. The economic benefits to the EU-27 will not be
significant in the short-run, neither the costs. However, in the long-run the whole European
economy will gain significantly from enlargement.
Table 5 presents four different models, where each of them consists of various variables. Each
model uses GDP of exporting and importing countries. By becoming a part of the single
market, there would be increase in the outputs and the growth of imports and exports that lead
to an increase in GDP. As a result, according to the results of our models, if SEEC’s access
the union, GDP’s will become higher, trade will increase, and at the end export flows become
larger. Therefore, households would benefit from the European enlargement and from the
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removal of tariffs. Removal of tariffs would lead to reduction in import prices, and will affect
the allocation of household income.
The removal of trade barriers would have a clear impact on price setting. As a result, the
scenario would be a reduction in prices. Conversely, the increased demand should be taken
into account, together with the removal of trade tariffs, which at the end will provide a
positive output.
The European Union has to manage enlargement appropriately if it wants to gather all the
potential benefits. Flourishing management depends on developing political strategy that is
behaving in interest of enlargement as a way of gains for the public and for interest groups.
Comparing previous enlargements and next ones, there are significant differences. For
instance, Greece, Portugal and Spain became members of the EU before the single market and
monetary union programs were implemented. Thus, they became members when the EU was
a much less integrated and smaller market. Today, the EU economy is experienced and it has
a faster growth trade than it was in time of accession period of Portugal and Spain.
The main benefits of enlargement for the SEEC’s are not only economic, but they are more
oriented to provide stability and security. The major risks are concerns of large migration
flows, wage competition, and the costs to the EU’s budget.
Results show that there is a room for trade to increase, especially, in neighbouring countries.
SEEC’s would have to invest in new technology in order to be competitive for the EU single
market.
9.POLICY SUGGESTIONS
Yugoslavia was located in the South-eastern Europe, in the heart of the Balkan Peninsula. The
heart connected two continents, Europe with Asia, and was the gate to the Black Sea. The
country had resources and good geographical position to grow and become super power of
Europe. Unfortunately, the country had not been unable to run resources properly.
The economy of Yugoslavia was oriented toward agriculture, so the whole national prosperity
depended on the development of agriculture. The character of Yugoslavia is seen in the fact
that out of 24,849,425 hectares of the whole territory, 11,500,000 hectares, or 46 per cent,
account for agriculture (Roucek, 1933, p. 414). The country produced hemp, cotton, hops,
opium, tobacco, etc. All these, and many other products, were high quality. The important
thing is that no single part of Yugoslavia produced all these products. The country consisted
of 7 parts that are today independent countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo,
Macedonia, Montenegro, Slovenia, and Serbia). Hence, each part of Yugoslavia was famous
for the production of a particular good. Exports went mainly to France, Germany, and
Switzerland. The interesting thing is that each province of Yugoslavia has its own special
kinds of fruits. Different fruits and variety of foods and beverages are produced in a way that
is traditional for every region of the country. Besides that, there were plenty of mineral
resources such as coal, iron, copper, etc. Yugoslavia could, by its richness of iron, take a place
as one of the leading countries in Europe. The main importers of Yugoslavian products were
Italy (28.31%), Austria (17.68%), Germany (11.66%), Hungary (7.18 per cent), Greece
(6.05%), etc. (Roucek, 1933, p. 420). The main products of exports were wood, cement,
cereals, and ores.
The economic situation of Yugoslavia gave a real situation of the country, the country`s
potential, and prosperity. Today, the former parts of Yugoslavia need a stabilization process
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that would bring them to previous conditions. It is obvious that countries need capital and
investment in infrastructure.
Taking all of these facts into consideration, a solution for the SEEC’s, among the one of the
European Union, might be the creation of the Balkan Union. The union would consist of 7
countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and
Serbia). In that case, the members of the Union would be oriented towards a kind of closed
economy. They would trade more between each other, and try to decrease imports from
countries out of the Balkan Union.
The construction of the Balkan Union would look like the European Union. There would be
institutions to regulate the union, but mainly, ones for culture, education, and trade. If each
member specializes in production of particular goods and services, and achieves comparative
advantage with economies of scale, then that product would be easy to sell, or to exchange for
something else, of course from one of the Union members.
The Union would need to have a supervisor. Currently, the only state that has incentives and
interest to regulate these countries is Turkey. If all countries agreed, Turkey would be the
supervisor and manager of the Union. Even more, as a state with high FDI in South-eastern
Europe, Turkey will be responsible for infrastructure, growth and development of the Union.
Developing countries, as “members” of the Balkan Union, must diversify their productive
structure and strengthen domestic demand. People should buy more domestic products, and
stop buying the similar foreign products, thinking foreign is better. Still, there are many
foreign products that are better, but at least beverages and foods have to be bought from
domestic producers.
Today, the countries not only depend on agriculture and manufacturing, but on tourism. Thus,
economic policy for each country should be taking advantages of potential, which they have.
There are countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro that should be oriented
towards tourism, specifically winter and summer tourism.
Recently, Minister of Turkey, Rifat Sait has called for establishing of Balkan Parliament,
where, besides Turkey, there would be Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Greece,
Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia (Bojadžić, 2011). With headquarters
in Izmir, the initiative of Turkey and its leading party, AK party, would welcome academics,
NGO, politicians, journalists, writers, representatives of private sector, etc. who could invest
money in development of Balkans. The idea might seem unachievable, where some countries
could reject supervision of Turkey, but it is the only country that does not look at historical
problems that occurred on the Balkans, and it wants to establish regular connections with each
state from the Balkans.
10.CONCLUSION
This study discusses economic costs and benefits of South-eastern enlargement of the
European Union. The idea of the united Europe is not a recent idea. Thus, the research starts
with brief overview of the idea of the European Union and its objectives. The purpose was to
maintain a peaceful and prosperous life throughout Europe. At the beginning of the fifties in
the last century, the EU has signed many treaties and brought new policies that would ensure
a zone for free capital movement. Besides that, the Union had five enlargements and
introduced a common currency. Creation of a single market, which today consists of 501
million of consumers, is to provide a better life for every citizen.
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Next enlargement is of the South-east European countries. After accession of the SEEC’s, the
European Union will have more than 30 members, with diverse cultures, histories and
languages. Can such a diverse union of nations create a common political “union”? The EU
was a trial to unify Europe, but it is obvious that it is difficult, since it is impossible to connect
Germany or Sweden with, let say, Mediterranean, and there is no surprise for the failure of
Greece and Italy. Can citizens of the EU establish a sense of being European while deeply
belonging to their country? In essence, they can, if incumbent members follow the example of
the first European Community. The moral legitimacy of the European Community is based on
compromise, while consolidating the peace between former enemies. It stayed within the
principle that all members, large and small, had equivalent rights and respected minorities.
Therefore, the next enlargement should bring equivalence to small countries, and more
important, stable market. EU member states account for almost 1/3 of the entire global
economy, so in that sense the common market is the preferable mean to the global market.
The research uses the Gravity model to test the trade relations between EU-15 (inclusive
Bulgaria and Romania) and SEEC’s. After adding dummy variables such as common borders
and currency to the model, the results show that there is a space for growth of trade between
them. Trade is positively affected by GDP of exporters and importers. Larger GDP means
higher production and increased ability for trade. However, distance has negative effect, and
in this model it decreases trade if country is far away from partner. On the other hand,
common borders positively affect trade, so by diminishing trade barriers, quotas, and taxes
countries could stimulate trade to grow. Since Montenegro is the only one who uses Euro, the
currency seems to affect trade negatively, and this shows that if any of SEEC’s adopts Euro it
would stimulate trade.
Current situation of the EU shows that high unemployment is present in many EU countries,
so the EU has to be focused on achieving growth and creating jobs. In order to make its
economies more dynamic and increase social cohesion, Europe must invest more in research
and innovation, education and training. Thus, President of the European Commission
presented a strategy for next 10 years, which is called the Europe 2020 strategy.
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9,
2012,
http://www.index.hr/vijesti/clanak/vesna-pusic-bez-cega-sve-ostajemo-kazemo-li-neeu/592030.aspx

from

Richard E. Baldwin, J. F. (1997). The Costs and Benefits of Eastern Enlargement: The Impact
on the EU and Central Europe. Centre for Economic Policy Research, Center for Economic
Studies, 125-176.
Roucek, J. S. (1933). Resources of Yugoslavia. Economic Geography, 413-425.
Schneider, C. J. (2007). Enlargement Processes and Distributional Conflicts: The Politics of
Discriminatory. Public Choice, 85-102.
Schneider, T. P. (2007). Discriminatory European Union Membership and the Redistribution
of Enlargement Gains. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 568-587.
Tupy, M. L. (2003). EU Enlargement: Costs, Benefits, and Strategies for Central and Eastern
European Countries. Policy Analysis, 1-20.
APPENDIX
DATA AND VARIABLES USED FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE GRAVITY MODEL
The reporting countries that are used for the analysis are the members of the EU-15 (Austria,
Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,
Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and United Kingdom). Since the Belgium and
Romania are not parts of the EU-15, they are not included in the South-east European
countries, but they are attached to the first group, the EU-15. There are six partner countries:
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.
The data GDP and population were taken from the World Bank’s World Development
Indicators. First two figures are measured in current US Dollars, Millions. Bilateral trade
flows, imports and exports, were taken from the IMF’s Direction of Trade Statistics, year
2010. Thus, the reference year for estimating potential trade between the EU-15 + (BG and
RO) and the South-east Europe is 2010.
Distances between capital cities of the countries were taken from
www.viamichelin.co.uk. The most used routes for transportation of goods by trucks and by
ship (in case of Italy and its partner countries) are taken for analysis.
Dummy variable BOR takes a value of 1 if country of EU-15 and its partner share a
common border, 0 otherwise.
Dummy variable CURR takes a value of 1 if country of EU-15 and its partner uses a
common currency, 0 otherwise.

204

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                <text>The South-eastern enlargement of the European Union will be the sixth enlargement since  establishing the European Community in 1957. The research uses the Gravity model, and  measures the factors that have an influence on trade. The Gravity model involves coefficients that explain the pattern of trade with GDP, geographical distance, population, and several  dummy variables. Trade that is explained by Gravity model includes two regions, EU-15  (inclusive Bulgaria and Romania) and SEEC’s. The reason why Bulgaria and Romania are  included, even if they are part of the SEEC’s, is to acquire as accurate pattern of trade as  possible. Comparing the data from 2010, the gravity model describes trade flows between 23  countries. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyze trade flows between two regions.  Taking into consideration the costs of enlargement, this research examines the effects of the  trade, its significance on the development of SEEC’s after enlargement, well-being of  countries that are not part of the EU, as well as it offers a solution for the South-east European  countries. Therefore, the solution that this research proposes is a model based on creation of  the Balkan Union.  Keywords: EU-Enlargement, Gravity model, South-eastern Europe, European union, Trade  flows.</text>
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                    <text>Zhu, Jiang, FeiXiong, DongzhenPiao, Yun Liu, Ying Zhang (2011). “Statistically Modeling
the Effectiveness of Disaster Information in Social Media”, 2011 IEEE Global Humanitarian
Technology Conference, s. 431-436.

Does predefined erp implementation methodology work for public companies in
transitioning country?
Classification of EEG signals for epileptic seizure prediction using ANN
JasminKevric, AbdulhamitSubasi
International Burch University, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies,
FrancuskeRevolucije bb, Ilidža, Sarajevo, 71210, Bosnia and Herzegovina.
E-mails:jkevric@ibu.edu.ba, asubasi@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract
In this paper, we developed a model for classification of EEG signals. The aim of the study is
to determine whether this model can be used for epileptic seizure prediction if “pre-ictal”
stages were successfully detected. We analyzed long-term Freiburg EEG data. Each of 21
patients contains datasets called “ictal” (seizure) and “inter-ictal” (seizure-free). We extracted
4096-samples (or 16 seconds) long segments from both datasets of each patient. These
segments were decomposed into time-frequency representations using Discrete Wavelet
Transform (DWT). The statistical features from the DWT sub-bands of EEG segments were
calculated and fed as inputs to Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function
(RBF) network classifiers using 10-fold cross validation. We also applied multiscale PCA
(MSPCA) de-noising method to determine if it can further enhance the classifiers’
performance. MLP-based approach outperformed RBF classifier with or without MSPCA,
which significantly improved the classification accuracy of both classifiers. The proposed
MLP-approach with MSPCAachieved a classification accuracy of 95.09%. We showed that a
high classification accuracy of EEG signals can be accomplished in cases when additional
“pre-ictal” class is introduced. Therefore, the proposed approach may become an efficient
tool to predict epileptic seizures from EEG recordings.
Keywords: Electroencephalogram (EEG); Epileptic seizure; Discrete Wavelet Transform
(DWT); Multilayer Perceptron (MLP); Radial Basis Function (RBF) network; Multiscale
PCA (MSPCA); Machine learning.
491

�1.INTRODUCTION
Noninvasive electrodes on the scalp can record the brain's electrical activity called as
electroencephalogram (EEG), produced by billions of neurons firing within the nervous
system. The EEG signal is characterized by a nonstationarity in the waveforms and
semistationary time-dependent states, and detection of these characteristics is a difficult task
(Bigan, 1998). Over 50 million people in the world are affected by the epilepsy, the second
mostcommon neurological disorder after stroke (D’Alessandro et al., 2003). Abnormal
movements and seizures, resulting from the brain cells' excessive electrical discharge, are the
signs of epilepsy.
One of the most important causes of stress, morbidness and anxiety in epileptic patients is the
inability of predicting seizure onset (Murray, 1993; Buck et al., 1997). Thereliable
predictability of seizure onset would dramatically improve the safety and quality of life of
these patients who cannot be treated successfully by common therapeutic options (Schachter,
1994). For example, patients would be able to prevent dangerous situations when being
warned of upcoming seizure. Various automated intervention systems and measures could be
implemented like applying electrical brain stimulations or delivering short-acting
anticonvulsant drugs by using implanted devices (Stein et al., 2000;Elger, 2001).
Additionally, the investigation of the pathophysiological mechanisms causing seizures could
be improved by the accurate detection of states preceding seizures.
Mormann et al., (2007) stated that seizure prediction is the long and winding road in their
review article. D’Alessandro et al., (2003)used intelligent genetic search technique to classify
preseizure and non-preseizure classes from four patients by a probabilistic neural network,
reporting a sensitivity of 62.5% with 90.5% specificity. Costa et al., (2008)compared 6 types
of neural network architectures which used 14 features extracted from EEG of two patients to
classify brain states into four classes: inter-ictal, pre-ictal, ictal and pos-ictal. The accuracies
of up to 99% were achieved. Mirowski et al., (2009)achieved 71% sensitivity and 0 false
positives using convolutional networks combined with wavelet coherence. Chisci et al.,
(2010) used Autoregressive (AR) models to classify pre-ictal and inter-ictal classes from nine
patients, reporting 100% sensitivities and average false positive rates of 0.174/h (on the interictal dataset).
This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the EEG data, signal processing and
feature extraction methods, and the artificial neural networks with a brief description of each
one. In section 3, the performance of the proposed system is presented and discussed. Finally,
section 4 presents concluding remarks and perspectives for future work.

492

�2.Materials and methods
2.1 Subjects and data recording
We analyzed long-term EEG data recorded during invasive pre-surgical epilepsy monitoring
at the Epilepsy Center of the University Hospital of Freiburg, Germany. The Neurofile NT
digital video EEG system with 128 channels, 256 Hz sampling rate, and a 16 bit analogue-todigital converter was used to acquire the EEG data. Each of 21 patients, suffering from
medically intractable focal epilepsy, contains datasets called “ictal” and “inter-ictal”. The
“ictal“ dataset consists of files containing epileptic seizures, each having a seizure-free "preictal" period of at least 50 minutes. The “inter-ictal“ dataset consist of approximately one day
of seizure-free EEG recordings for each patient. Each patient had between two and five
seizures, with an average of 4.2 seizures per patient or a total number of 87 seizures(Maiwald
et al., 2004).The onset and end times of each seizure were determined by visual examination
of skilled epileptologists.
2.2 Multiscale Principal Component Analysis
Multiscale Principal Component Analysis (MSPCA) combines the wavelet analysis with
PCA. The MSPCA method incorporates the decomposition of each variable on a selected
family of wavelets during which the wavelet coefficients are thresholded. After that, the PCA
model is separately built for the coefficients at each scale. In order to yield one model for all
scales together, the models at important scales, which show process disturbances or abnormal
operation, are merged in an effective scale-recursive way(Bakshi 1998; Ganesan, Das, &amp;
Venkataraman, 2004).Because of its multiscale type, it is suitable to use MSPCA for
modeling of data consisting of contributions from events which behavior changes over time
and frequency. MSPCA is powerful tool for monitoring autocorrelated measurements without
time-series modeling or matrix augmentation due to approximate decorrelation of wavelet
coefficients. The MSPCA method not only selects and monitors the significant signal features
but also conforms to the nature of the signal (Bakshi 1998).
2.3 Discrete Wavelet Transform
Signals like EEG may contain transitory or non-stationary characteristics. That is why
Fourier Transform, which can be applied to the stationary signals, is not an ideal method to
be directly applied to signals like EEG. Therefore, time-frequency methods like Wavelet
Transform should be used.
The analysis based on Discrete Wavelet Transform is best explained in terms of filter banks.
Multi-resolution decomposition of a signal is the procedure of using a group of filters to
separate that signal into various spectral components. Every stage of this procedure consists
of two digital filters and two down-samplers by 2. The first filter is the discrete mother
wavelet, being high-pass in nature. The second filter is its mirror version, being low pass in
493

�nature. Outputs of the first high-pass and low-pass filters, once being down-sampled, provide
the detail D1 and the approximation A1, respectively (Adeli, Zhou, &amp; Dadmehr,
2003;Marchant, 2003; Semmlow, 2004).
In DWT analysis it is very important to choose the appropriate number of
decomposition levels and appropriate wavelet selection. The components of the dominant
frequency of the signal are the main base for choosing the number of decomposition levels.
Distribution of energy of the EEG signal in frequency and time is shown by a compact
representation of the extracted wavelet coefficients. Using statistics over the wavelet
coefficients sets helped in decreasing the dimensionality of the extracted feature vectors
(Kandaswamy et al., 2004).Subasi (2007) and Subasi&amp;Gursoy (2010) achieved high
accuracies in classifying EEG signals using statistical feature vectors extracted from wavelet
coefficients.

2.4 Multilayer Perceptron
Multilayer feedforward networks is composed of a set of source nodes which serve as sensory
units that form the input layer, one or more hidden layers and an output layer. Hidden layers
and an output layer consist of computational nodes. The input signal is transmitted through
the network in a forward direction, layer by layer. This type of neural networks, which
represents a generalization of the single-layer perceptron, is generally known as multilayer
perceptron (MLP). When trained in a supervised manner using highly popular and
computationally efficienterror back-propagation algorithm, multilayer perceptrons can
successfully solve complex and different problems, but certainly do not provide an optimal
solution for all solvable problems. Essentially, error back-propagation learning consists of a
forward pass and a backward pass. In the forward pass, the effect of an input vector, when
being applied to the sensory nodes, propagates through the network. At the end, a set of
outputs, as the real response of the network, is formed. The synaptic weights are all fixed
during this stage. However, these synaptic weights are being tuned according to errorcorrection rule during the backward pass. Namely, an error signal is produced as the real
response of the network is subtracted from a desired (target) response. This error signal is
then propagated backward through the network during which the synaptic weights are tuned
so that the difference between the real and the desired response of the network decreases.One
or more layers of hidden neurons enhance network’s learning of difficult problems by
extracting more significant features from the input vectors(Haykin 1999).
2.5 Radial Basis Function Network
The design of a neural network can also be perceived as a curve-fitting (approximation)
problem in a high-dimensional space,where learning is viewed as finding a surface which
494

�represents a best fit to the training data in a multidimensional space. This multidimensional
surface is then used to interpolate the test data. The method of radial-basis functions is
motivated by such a viewpoint. The early work on radial-basis functions is reviewed in
Powell (1985).A radial-basis function (RBF) network basically consists of three layers having
completely different tasks. The input layer connects the network to the environment via
source nodes that serve as sensory units. A nonlinear transformation from the input space to
the hidden space of high dimensionality is applied in the second layer as the only hidden
layer in the network. The output layer, producing the response of the network to the input
vector, is linear. The effect of applying nonlinear transformation prior to a linear
transformation is explained by Cover (1965). As stated by him, there is a higher change of a
pattern recognition problem to be linearly separable in a high-dimensional space. Therefore,
the dimension of the hidden space in an RBF network is often made high. Moreover, the
higher the dimension of the hidden space, the more accurate the approximation of smooth
mapping is(Mhaskar, 1996; Niyogi and Girosi, 1996).
3. Experimental results and discussion
3.1 Experiment
Classification of EEG signals consists of data acquisition and preparation, signal processing,
feature extraction and classification. We propose a method based on MSPCA for denoising,
DWT for feature extraction and ANNs for classification.We extracted 4096-samples-long
segments from both datasets of each patient. Approximately two segments per hour were
extracted from “inter-ictal” dataset, producing 1050 inter-ictal segments. We also extracted
two types of segments from “ictal” dataset: ictal and pre-ictal. We used minimum number of
4096-samples-long segments to cover all 87 seizure activities, producing 652 ictal segments.
We extracted five segments within a seizure-free "pre-ictal" period of 50-60 minutes,
producing 435 pre-ictal segments. Only one out of six channels was used for extraction of
EEG segments, although results from the different authors presented a poor performance of
univariate measures (Mormann et al., 2005).
We selected the number of decomposition levels for DWT to be 5 since EEG signals contain
no useful frequency components above 30 Hz, and because of 256Hz sampling rate of
Neurofile NT used to acquire the EEG data. Daubechies 4 (DB4) wavelet filter was used to
reconstruct the detail and approximation records.All 2137 EEG segments, which belong to
three different classes, were divided into sub-band frequencies A5 (0-4 Hz), D5 (4-8 Hz), D4
(8-16 Hz), D3 (16-32 Hz), D2 (32-64 Hz) and D1 (64-128 Hz). Sub-band frequencies A5 and
D3-D5 almost perfectly correspond to δ (0-4 Hz), θ (4-8 Hz), α (8-12 Hz) and β (12-26 Hz)
frequencies of EEG signals (Bylsma et al., 1994).
A set of fifteen statistical features was then extracted from the wavelet coefficients
representing these sub-band frequencies and fed as inputs to classifiers. A Multiscale PCA
(MSPCA) de-noising method was also applied to determine if it can further enhance the
495

�classifiers’ performance. We implemented a classification system based on MLP and RBF
network using wavelet statistical features as inputs and 10-fold cross validation method, to
guarantee validity of the results.
3.2 Results
We performed two types of experiment: with and without MSPCA de-noising method
applied.In Table 1, we have seen that MSPCA drastically improved the classification
accuracy of both classifiers, while MLP network achieved higher total classification accuracy
than RBF network. The accuracies for each class are also presented in Table 1.
Accuracy

Accuracy

Accuracy

Total

(Pre-ictal)

(Inter-ictal)

(Ictal)

Accuracy

MLP +DWT

2.76 %

89.43 %

60.58 %

62.99 %

RBFN +DWT

7.13 %

90.57 %

54.45 %

62.56 %

MLP + MSPCA+DWT

87.82 %

97.43 %

96.17 %

95.09 %

RBFN + MSPCA+DWT

71.49 %

97.14 %

94.02 %

90.97 %

Classifier

Table 1. Accuracies of MLP and RBF network classifiers with and without MSPCA.
MSPCA significantly improved the classification accuracy for ictal and pre-ictal
samples, while accuracy performance for inter-ictal class was only slightly improved.
Classifiers are totally useless for seizure prediction if MSPCA is not applied.
3.3 Discussion
The experiment results show that MSPCA is an effective denoising method for improving the
classification performance. Without MSPCA, our method classified many pre-ictal/ictal data
samples as being inter-ictal.Aminghafari, Cheze, &amp; Poggi, (2006) showed that de-noised
signals by MSPCA magnify the spikes more clearly. Therefore, MSPCA enhanced our
classifier's performance for about 50%.
Our approach outperformed the one explained in D’Alessandro et al., (2003). Theyalso used
data of only four patients to developfour different classifiers for each patient. Although Costa
et al., (2008)introduced one more class (pos-ictal) and achieved accuracies of 99%, using data
of only two patients from Freiburg database is insufficient to successfully train and develop a
model. Mirowski et al., (2009) predicted all seizures without false positives for 15 patients,
without mentioning how classifier performed on data belonging to six remaining patients
496

�from Freiburg database. Thus, sensitivity of 71% is reported, which is lower than
classification accuracies for pre-ictal class of both of our classifiers. Chisci et al., (2010)used
nine patients for which additional electro-corticographic recordings (grid–strip electrodes)
were available and achieved 100% sensitivity with low false positive rates. However, they
developed patient-specific system by training nine classifiers, where each classifier used train
and test data of only one patient. Our proposed system is more general because only one
classifier is developed for all patients and it is not bound to specific group of epileptic
patients.
4. CONCLUSION
We showed that a high classification accuracy of EEG signals can be accomplished in cases
when additional “pre-ictal” class is introduced. Many research papers showed that DWT
coefficients well represent the EEG signals and ensure a good differentiation between classes.
However, we managed to achieve high accuracies only when MSPCA de-noising method was
applied to Freiburg dataset. The accuracy may be further improved by applying dimension
reduction or feature selection methods like ICA or LDA on the feature vectors. Measures that
characterize the relations between two or more channels can be used to further enhance the
performance. Using only inter-ictal and pre-ictal samples to train the classifier could be
investigated since our aim is not seizure detection. Freiburg dataset can serve as a challenge
for trying other feature extraction methods rather than DWT. The proposed approach may
become an efficient tool to predict epileptic seizures from EEG recordings.
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Classification of Fetal State from the Cardiotocogram Recordings using ANN and
Simple Logistic
Hakan Sahin, Abdulhamit Subasi
International Burch University, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies,
71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E-mail:hakanshah@hotmail.com , asubasi@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract
In this study, we present a comparison of machine learning technics using antepartum
cardiotocographs performed by SisPorto 2.0 in predicting newborn outcome. CTG is widely
used in pregnancy as a technique of measuring fetal well-being, mainly in pregnancies with
increased risk of complications. It is a non-invasive way for checking the fetal conditions in
the antepartum period. CTG is a continuous electronic record of the baby’s heart rate
acquired via an ultrasound transducer placed on the mother’s abdomen. The information
499

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                <text>In this paper, we developed a model for classification of EEG signals. The aim of the study is  to determine whether this model can be used for epileptic seizure prediction if “pre-ictal”  stages were successfully detected. We analyzed long-term Freiburg EEG data. Each of 21  patients contains datasets called “ictal” (seizure) and “inter-ictal” (seizure-free). We extracted  4096-samples (or 16 seconds) long segments from both datasets of each patient. These  segments were decomposed into time-frequency representations using Discrete Wavelet  Transform (DWT). The statistical features from the DWT sub-bands of EEG segments were  calculated and fed as inputs to Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function  (RBF) network classifiers using 10-fold cross validation. We also applied multiscale PCA  (MSPCA) de-noising method to determine if it can further enhance the classifiers’  performance. MLP-based approach outperformed RBF classifier with or without MSPCA,  which significantly improved the classification accuracy of both classifiers. The proposed  MLP-approach with MSPCAachieved a classification accuracy of 95.09%. We showed that a  high classification accuracy of EEG signals can be accomplished in cases when additional  “pre-ictal” class is introduced. Therefore, the proposed approach may become an efficient  tool to predict epileptic seizures from EEG recordings.  Keywords: Electroencephalogram (EEG); Epileptic seizure; Discrete Wavelet Transform  (DWT); Multilayer Perceptron (MLP); Radial Basis Function (RBF) network; Multiscale  PCA (MSPCA); Machine learning.</text>
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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Report on : Students expenditure and the economic recession
Kerim Hadziabdic
Inetnatinal Burch University Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Abstract
All subjects were selected from International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM),
data was collected using questionnaire which is attached to the research paper. There are two
types of data which is local student’s data and foreign student’s data. The findings from
research are representing that foreign students as well as local students are affected by current
economic recession.
1.INTRODUCTION
THE ECONOMIC recession which had taken place on 2008-2009 had a global implication
all around the world. Like any other economic recessions before, it had been triggered by a
widespread contraction succeeding an economic bubble. As for the case of 2008-2009, the
bubble that blew before the event was the increasing number of subprime mortgages and
lending of individuals due to low interests. It had mainly originated from the United States,
and when it had a dire critical economic meltdown, no other country in the world could
escape the repercussions. Contingency ripple took place and country as far as Malaysia too
were well effected by the economic recession.
An economic recession is a phenomena of which it effects almost any if not every aspect of
individuals who rely on money and the common market. Thus students, like any other
individuals are part of this economic equation and are subject to impact to any economic
circumstances. Malaysia has over 900,000 students currently enrolled in public and private
higher education institutions (Ministry of Higher Education, 2009). This number includes
foreign students who had become part and element of the Malaysian financial market. Both
students wether local or foreign are well included in economic activities, either by saving
money in banks, selling or buying things, or spending on services provided by the higher
institutions. The great number of university students thus cannot be easily overlooked in the
implications of the economic recession. The economic crisis has had an impact on their
family’s finances and many have felt an effect on their own financial lives. The crisis also
ultimately affected students’ confidence, behavior, trust in financial institutions and overall
well-being.
2.SELECTION OF PROBLEM
The economic recession may had happened almost two years ago, but no one could
deny the economic repercussions still lingers today. Students engaged in many economic
activities on a daily basis. Many like foreign students that recite at IIUM deal with money
transactions that involve external as well local curacies. The global economic crisis 20082010 influences these transactions in many ways. Whilst Malaysians claim they were not
badly affected by global economic crisis which originates mainly in US and Europe none the
less on a longer time scale it would have altered the economic behavior of locals. The issue
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here is how economic recession indirectly have an impact on the students pockets beat it the
local students or foreign students of IIUM. Both types of students leave in a quiet similar and
controlled environment and even consume common life style. What should differ on these
students is their source of savings or money gotten of their parents whom would be more
directly affected by the economic recession. Thus, the study aims to look into aspects of
expenditure on a much localised scenario. It would be interesting to note how this particular
phenomenon would have direct or indirect implication on student’s expenditure of various
backgrounds.
2.1.Objective of study
This paper tries to examine the two main components which are the type of student of IIUM
and the level of changes on their expenditure habits after the global economic recession.
These students which are between ages 18 to 30 are at their beginning of financial maturity
and independence. Many of which decide their own economic decisions. However they still
rely on a given source of income weather it is from their parents, scholarships or any other
forms of financial assistance. By identifying the students of these various backgrounds it is
possible for us to analyse the indirect impact of current economic recession on the students,
furthermore they are also the factor of foreign and local students of IIUM who may act
differently on the level of economic implications they meet with. This study also hopes to
identify whether the economic behavior of students on the account of their expenditure are
influenced by where they are from (foreign or local) in the event of an economic recession.
The findings of this research would help in many ways of decision making of related
authorities such as the university, or even at a personal financial management on a similar
economic circumstances.
2.2.Research Questions
Are student’s spending habits effected by an economic recession?
Which type of student is more responsive towards the change in an economic recession, the
locals or foreign?
3.Literature Review
Malaysia had its bumpy road in facing the uncertainties of modern global economy.
Global economic crisis of recession, inflation, bubble burst, and oil crisis are the examples of
problem faced by Malaysia and without exception, most countries in the world. The global
economic recession of 2008-2009 like any others before had effected considerably on all
aspects of life of the public. What had actually caught my attention is that how many had
undermined the role of young adults , typically students had anything at all to do with such
global economic crisis. Many argue that students; whom may still heavily rely on parents or
government in funding them, are best unaffected by the greater economic phenomenon.
Students simply don't care, since they do not work or earn for money and oblivious to the
hardship of their parents. Of course, these are generalization and a well attained myth of
ungrateful sons and daughters who would plunder the money of their parents if not the tax
payers money. The truth is that students are at a great stage of transitional period to financial
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and psychological maturity. They’ve begin to deal problems and issues identical to those
faced by working adults and had become a more responsible individual part of a greater
society. Issues of monetary crisis that may had happened on a greater international and state
level definitely trickles down to the general public and to students with no exception.
Malaysia has over 900,000 students currently enrolled to both private and public
universities (a good 3% of the population of Malaysia as of 2010) and a number that much
could not escape any of the country’s economic equation. The well known by-product of any
economic recession is the increasing number of unemployment as well as prices of goods,
followed by the mass withdrawal from ordinary expenditure. Replicating this at the very
micro level, a student has as much to worry about it than any other regular working adult.
The scarcity of jobs offered by the market and the constant struggle of fresh graduates with
existing unemployed workforce had become a nightmare of students who yearns for a sense
of approval from the society and parents. While enrollment was related directly to salaries
and employment opportunities for college graduates, it was related inversely to wage and
employment opportunities for non college graduates (Freeman 1975; Handa and Skolnik
1975; and Mattila 1982).
Whilst many studies focuses on the financial troubles faced by students who intends
to pursue their studies ( i.e unaffordable tuition fees ) and prospect of working after
graduating, little attention had been laid on financial difficulties faced when they are still
enroled to a particular university. A review of university choice studies examined the
differences changes in student responses to five key components of university cost: tuition,
room and board(hostels), travel, cost of foregone earnings, and financial aid ( Leslie and
Brinkman 1987, pp 195-197 ). These variables are the focus of a students financial planning,
and come what may an economic recession or financial abysmal that may had befallen them,
this issues still holds a primary importance.
However, on an account of an economic recession may well effect how students
handle their money, on a fixed cost ( i.e. books, transport, food ) or for leisures. An
assessment done by National Institute of Endowment for Financial education on how a
recession impact cripples student’s finances, they've concluded that 93% of students have felt
and effect on their own financial lives. The crisis also ultimately affected student’s
confidence, behaviour, trust in financial institutions and overall well being. This data stems
from the landmark study Arizona Pathways to Life Success in University Students (APLUS),
funded by the National Endowment for Financial Education. At the height of the economic
crisis (February 2009 to April 2009), researchers at the University of Arizona completed
Wave 1.5 of a longitudinal study of how young adults develop financial attitudes and
behaviors.*
In addition to that, this study stresses on how the economic recession of 2008-2009
would have direct or indirect implication on student’s expenditure and it would have to be
addressing to students enrolled to local Malaysian university. IIUM fits in this category and
boasts to have almost 13,000 students studying there. By implicating the idea of students
difficulties in their finances (which is more or less covered under their expenditure
behaviour) I hope to define not just how a student’s pocket can relate to an economic
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recession but also on what are the common patterns that drive a typical students expenditure
on day to day basis. By principle, a student will face either shortage of financial funds from
their parents (as parents too had to reshuffle their expenditure planning due to an economic
recession ) or the scarcity of financial aids from the government ( loans, endowments
PTPTNs). This will deliberately alter their lifestyle and expenditure (ie, going less outings,
and reside on cheap hostel food). I have also noticed that under the administration of Prime
Minister Najib Tun Razak, much emphasis had been focused on students financial aids and
welfare. According to his speech in introducing the supplementary supply (2009) bill, he
mentions that the Government is willing to provide various subsidies, incentives and
assistance for fuel consumption, food security, scholarships and educational assistance as
well as social welfare programs. The allocation for subsidies and other assistance in 2008
totaled RM 34.1 billion or 22% of total operating expenditure and RM6 billion is accounted
for helping students (Najib, 2009; Supplementary Supply (2009) Bill ).
Finally, the study sets to look at the differences of expenditure behaviour that exists
between local and foreign students on similar economic condition. IIUM is well known to
have a great number of foreign students which stays for the average period of 3 - 5 years to
complete a course. Given the long tenure of these students in Malaysia, foreign students may
endure similar economic activities just as the locals do. However, there are many more
variables that may influence their behaviour of spending, for which this study is trying to
analyse. In comparison to the local students, a foreign student is expected to be more
responsive to an economic recession. Thus , I am determined to have a full study of
behaviour of the students expenditure on a given economic climate, namely due to the
economic recession of 2008-2009 and discuss how local and foreign students cope up with it.
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

-

Change in
currency 40,00
rates

10,0
Decrease of
Economic0
expenditure
Crisis
20,
00

Increase
price of
goods

Parents 200
decrease 2
expenditure
50,0
on
20,
0
00

Increase in
savings
Foreign
students

Local
students

DI
TXV
10
,0 Decrease in
Spending less
time on outings
0 students
income

0,
00

DI
TİV

Reluctance of
using credit
services

(EXPENDITUR
E)
Area of interest
This study’s theoretical framework is inspired in replicating the research done by
Fig. 1.1 - A model of Students expenditure and the economic
University of Arizona
completing a longitudinal study of how young adults develop financial
recession
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attitudes and behaviors. However, due to limited sources and time frame given this study
seeks to carry a vertical cross-section of a given number of students of IIUM in a single
survey.
It is, perhaps, easier to understand the nature and function of a theoretical framework if it
is viewed as the answer to two basic questions:
1. What is the problem?


Why is this study’s approach a feasible solution?
Starting with the sample, it should be noted that this study is conducted on a short

semester period, and that the number of students enrolled for the semester is considerably
much lower than of a normal long semester. Nonetheless, this study aims to produce a set of
sample of students replicable to the population of students in IIUM.
This study assumes that there shall be no expenditure differences between male and
female students on a given economic circumstances, although these numbers should be well
noted. In addition to that, variables such as student’s ethnicity, home of residence, and their
GPAs are well accounted for analyzation. The data collection method preferred in the study is
survey questionnaire, which respondents can complete in less then 10 minutes about their
family financial environment, attitudes and behaviour on the recent economic crisis and etc.
Figure 1.1 demonstrates how variables should relate to one another, forming the proposed
research question;
Would students spend less following an economic crisis, if so are foreign students more
responsive in such circumstances?
Taking the economic crisis of 2008-2009 as a starting point, it led to several foreseeable
effect, namely decrease of expenditure in the public and the increase price of goods. As stated
earlier, the sample is taken from within the student population of IIUM; the university is thus
a controlled environment for which all students reside. All students are assumed to be
financially dependent on their parents, at least on the term of student’s monthly additional
income.
Decrease in students income should indicate the following effect of parents decreasing the
amount spent on their university enrolled child. I am therefore to generalize the spending
habits of students narrowing them down to increase of savings, spending less time on outings,
and or reluctance of using credit services all of which signifies student’s expenditure. Note
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also there is an added variable to foreign students, for which involves in transnational
financial transaction and should be responsive to the change of currency rates of their country
to Malaysia.

Data collection

A questionnaire survey of 30 respondents had been carried out through a non
probability sampling method. They had been approached at random, however, the research is
conducted under quota sampling method. In order to match the real representation of the
student population of IIUM, the study restricts the number of foreign students respondents to
7 out of 30 bringing the percentage to 23,3 % of the whole sample. This number reflect
closely to the ratio of foreign student to local students in IIUM. Sample questionnaire is
attached to Appendix.

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Data analysis
Data analysis of respondents identity

Figure 1.5 Student’s monthly
income

We can see that in figure 1.5, most students
receive in an average monthly income of Rm300
to Rm600. However, for the top range of students
monthly income of Rm700 and above is received
by all foreign students. This importantly signifies
that foreign students needs more money than local
students.

Figure 1.6 Occupation of Guardian

It is important to also note the minimal
background of students by knowing how their
guardian is employed and financing them. 12
students out of 30 answered that their guardians
are in private sector followed by 11 whom are self
employed. This data signifies that average of
students comes from a middle income families.

Figure 1.7 Campus status

As shown on figure 1.7, we can see that it
correlates with figure 1.5, of students monthly
income. The major 83% of students whom stays
in-campus has the average income of 300-600rm.
Many can rely on this minimal income because
lifestyle is considerably cheaper by living in
campus.

Accommodation

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Gathering the data, we could see on figure 1.2, that the respondents consists of more female
than male. As stated earlier, there shall be no distinctions between the expenditure habit of
male or female.

In figure 1.3, the ratio is maintained to reflect the original student population of IIUM.

The significance of year of intake tell us that there are more senior students compared to
juniors. The fact is senior students would have much more financial awareness and
experiences in managing their monthly income.

Figure 1.2 Gender

306

Figure 1.3 Nationality

Figure 1.4 Year of intake

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Figure 1.8 Social outings

However, it is interesting to note that despite most
having only up to 600rm to spend on monthly basis,
still there are many students (11 of them ) who
enjoys a good social outings for 2 to 4 times a
week. It just shows that , come what may,
economic recession or not, socializing is still the
main primary importance in a student’s life.

Figure 1.9 Use of credit/debit card

Most of the students does not use or own a credit or
debit card. This number represents the number of
local students whom rely mostly on cash based
transactions

whilst

the rest

(mostly foreign

students) are dealing with credit/debit cards.

Figure 2.0 Savings

A lot of students find it unimportant to save if they
have just enough cash for the monthly expenditure.
However, there are students who would reserve not
more than 25% of their monthly income for
savings. If you could relate to figure 2.3 of students
interest in part time employment, it goes to say that
many are interested to have a minimal saving whilst
increasing their monthly income.

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Figure 2.1 Students perception towards price of goods
Figure 2.1 explains that the economic recession has
a greater and prolonged effect. Up to 93% of
students believe that prices of goods are getting
much expensive than before.

Figure 2.2 Financial Assistance
According to the result of the survey, up to 60% of
the sample still greatly rely on their parents for
financial assistance and difficulties. They feel more
comfortable by gaining monetary help from their
parents because it has been their primary source of
income anyway. This data is followed by an equal
distribution of respondents who would rely on
friends or simply wait till difficulties is overcome.

Figure 2.3 Part time employment

As said earlier, figure 2.3 in students perception of
having a part time job whilst studying shows the
correlation of student’s need for extra money to
cope up with the rise of price of goods. More over,
many students also believe that they are mature
enough to offer services to the job market, a
determination to be part of the bigger society. 80 %
of the students also consider that part time job
would not effect their studies immensely.

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The questionnaire also provides an open ended question, enquiring on how students feel the
economic recession of 2008-2009 had effect on them. This question tries to sum up the
overall feeling and perception towards such economic scenario where prices goes up and how
it influences their monthly expenditure. Up to 70% of respondents have the impression that
the economic recession has little or no impact on their lifestyle or expenditure. This leaves us
the rest 30 % (which represents 9 respondents ) all of whom said that they are uneasy with the
increase price of goods and thought that they ought to get more money to handle difficult
situations up. 6 out of this 9 respondents are foreign students and 3 are locals. This shows that
foreign students are more conscious to the changes brought by an economic recession and is
determine to deal with it.
The survey continues by providing questions specifically asked on foreign students. These
questions are designed to ask about activities done by foreign students in handling their
finances.
Foreign students response

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Students’s response :
“ Prices are much expensive and more
pocket money is needed to maintain such
current lifestyle.”
Effected by
economic recession
“ Things are getting pricier than
usual, there is less to spend. “

Figure 2.4 Frequency in dealing with international banking transaction
Almost all of foreign students deal with
international banking transaction. 43% of who
deals on a monthly basis. International students
whom still rely on their parents who are back
home get their money through international
banking. International banking is one of the
sector most vunerable to economic crisis.
Following this question, many students said that
at the recent currency exchange, they had less to
spend.

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Discussion
Consistent with the research question proposed, the questionnaire conducted had
intended to get as much data to prove of disapprove the argument. Reviewing back to the
question, are students spending habits effected by an economic recession, it is undeniable that
students do admit changes. Although, infinite factors does influence in giving such result, I
am certain that economic crisis plays a big and important role in effecting the financial lives
of not just working adults but students as well. There is indeed a link between students
financial management and the bigger economic picture, and we can well discard the myth
that students are unaware of economic crises.
From that the study gathered how students generally feel about the economic recession.
Most of the local students receive in average of Rm300-Rm600 monthly and comes from a
middle income family status. I believe them having to live on around Rm 400 a month would
be modest at best. Yet, with prices of good increasing either through gradual inflation or
economic crisis, they managed to maintain with that amount and many feel that they are least
effected by the economic crisis, though they acknowledge their ability to spend less.
On the other hand, the foreign students has been projected to have more for their monthly
income, some up to more than Rm 1500. Comparing this to the local, it shows that the locals
have greater confidence in their financial securities than that of the foreign students. Local
students are surrounded by elements familiar to them, whilst foreign student having to adapt
to a foreign culture, may think they need more to spend.
Take for example, Ali ; a Palestinian student may not be easily accustomed to normal
day to day food like rice and sambal belacan, a cheap source of food for local student. He
may have to reside if not occasionally to an Arab food restaurant which is considerably more
expensive. This is a classic example involving just food, though many other factors may lead
as to why foreign students need more monthly income. ( communication, room, etc.)
Ironically, where both foreign and local students differ in their monthly income, they still
think social outing should not be missed. Most of the respondents continues to go for social
outings despite the increase prices of goods. This agrees with such longitudinal study carried
out by a research that confirms how university students spend time, 16 hours for which is
dedicated to socializing (National Survey of Student Engagement, 2006; Nonis, Philhours &amp;
Hudson, 2006).
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Coming to the second proposed research question, the result shows that there are no clear
sign that economic recession is a direct factor to their expenditure behaviour. The study can
only conclude that due to foreign students avid involvement in international banking
transaction compared to local student, they are more responsive and vulnerable to global
economic consequences. Foreign students also replied that due to the recent currency
exchange rate, many felt that they have less to spend. This somewhat is aligned to the
hypotheses proposed by this study that ultimately, foreign students are relatively more
responsive to global economic conditions than local students.
Conclusion
In conclusion we can say that student’s expenditure is affected by current economic
recession. Foreign students are affected more because of currency rates, increase of prices of
basic needs, and it always more expensive to study abroad than to study at home.
There are several limitations in this study. The findings, among other things may not
represent wider population of both types of students due to limited number of respondents.
However, the number of respondents in this study still provides the insight indeed. As
findings presented, foreign students have more expenditures compare to local student and
their pockets are affected by economic recession.
Bibliography
Freeman, Richard B. 1971. The Market for College. Trained Manpower. Cambridge, Mass.:
Harvard

University Press.

Handa, M.L , and Skolnik, M.L 1975 “Unemployment, Expected Returns, and the Demand
for

University Education in Ontario: Some Empirical Results.” Higher Education 4: 27,

43.
Hilgert, M. A., Hogarth, J. M., &amp; Beverly, S. G. (2003). Household Financial Management:
The

Connection Between Knowledge and Behavior. Federal Reserve Bulletin July: 309-

322.
Leslie, Larry I., and Brinkman, Paul T. 1987. “Student Price Response in Higher Education:
The

Student Demand Studies.” Journal of Higher Education 58(2): 181, 204.

Najib Tun Abdul Razak, 2009. “In Introducing the Supplementary Supply (2009) Bill 2009.”
Ministry
312

of Finance. 12.

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Nonis, S. A., Philhours, M. J. &amp; Hudson, G. I. (2006). Where Does the Time Go? A Diary
Approach to

Business and Marketing Students’ Time Use. Journal of Marketing Education,

28, 121-134.
Mattila, J. Peter, 1982 “Determinants of Male School Enrollments: A time Series Analysis.”
Review of

Economics and Statistics. 64, 242, 51.

Ministry of Higher Education, 2009.( http://www.mohe.gov.my/educationmsia/index.php?
article=mohe )

Green Economy-Green Sustainability-Green Ethics
Nilgün Dolmaci, Nurdan Kuşat
Süleyman Demirel Üniversity, Isparta, Turkey
E-mails: nilgundolmaci@sdu.edu.tr, nurdankusat@sdu.edu.tr
Abstract
Although the concept ‘environment’ is perceived as a space where people live, it narrates an
ecosystem in the broad sense. Ecosystem is described as a raw material store which fulfills
the physical and biological needs. However, considering that the resources are scarce and the
needs of people are limitless, it is clearly seen that the environmental resources are scarce as
well. Within this content, efficient use of environmental resources has a great importance for
sustainable development.
Green economy approach brings a new perspective for the sustainable development. Since
the degeneration in economic, cultural and historical environment led to development
problems, green economy is an important instrument achieving sustainability in
environmental values.
In this study, green economy and green sustainability is handled from the point of decreasing
the damage that environment and ecosystem are exposed. When it comes to solve the paradox
between economic development and environment, the study touches on the green ethics
perception which can be defined as getting and adopting the information, attitude and
behavior that will preserve the living space and living quality of human beings both
individually and globally.
Keywords: Green Economy, Sustainable Development, Green Sustainability, Green Ethics
1. INTRODUCTION
The words ‘green’ and ‘sustainability’ are usually used together. While the word ‘green’
represents the environment, ‘sustainability’ refers to convection of current resources to the
next generation without any loss. Sustainable development, which is one of the most popular
313

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                <text>Report on : Students expenditure and the economic recession</text>
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                <text>All subjects were selected from International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM),  data was collected using questionnaire which is attached to the research paper. There are two  types of data which is local student’s data and foreign student’s data. The findings from  research are representing that foreign students as well as local students are affected by current  economic recession.</text>
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                <text>2012-05-31</text>
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PeerReviewed</text>
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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Liu, S.S., Luo, X. and Shi, Y. (2003). Market oriented organizations in an emerging
economy: A study of missing links. Journal of Business Research, 56(6), 481-491.
Narver, J.C. and Slater, S.F. (1990). The effects of a market orientation on business
profitability. Journal of Marketing, 54(4), 20-35.
Reimann, F., Ehrgott, M., Kaufmann, L. and Carter, C.R. (2012). Local stakeholders and
local legitimacy: MNEs; social strategies in emerging economies. Journal of International
Management, 18(1), 1-17.
Robinson, W.T. (1988), Marketing mix reactions to entry. Marketing Science, 7(4), 368-85.
Sa de Abreu, M.C. (2011). Effects of environmental pressures on company sustainability
strategies: An interview study among Brazalian manufacturing firms. International Journal of
Management, 28(3), 909-925.
Sheth, J.N (2011). Impact of emerging markets on marketing: Rethinking existing
perspectives and practices. Journal of Marketing, 75(4), 166-182.
Slater, S.F. and Narver, J.C. (1998). Customer-led and market-oriented: Let’s not confuse the
two. Strategic Management Journal, 19(10), 1001-1006.
Wackernagel, M. and Rees, W. (1997). Perceptual and structural barriers to investing in
natural capital: Economics from an ecological footprint perspective. Ecological Economics,
20(1), 3-24.

Menu Planning With Fuzzy 0-1 Integer Programming

Kenan Oğuzhan Oruç1, Ibrahim Güngör2, Sezgin Irmak2, Semih Şenol1
1Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences
Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
2Alanya Faculty of Business, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey
E-mails: kenanoruc@sdu.edu.tr, igungor@akdeniz.edu.tr,sezgin@akdeniz.edu.tr
semihh_senol@hotmail.com

Abstract
For the sustainability of development, effective usage of sources and the determination of
their optimal usage levels are very important. Healthiness, as one of the main components of
sustainable development, is under influences of many factors one of which is nutrition, and
the number of people who benefit from public nutrition services are increasing every day.

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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

The growth in the number of people necessitates that an effective menu planning must be
done in order to keep the continuity of sustainable public nutrition systems.
In this study, detailed plans of 20 days’ lunch menu lists are prepared for workers who are at
the age of between 19 to 30 years old. Fuzzy 0-1 integer linear programming technique was
used during the planning process with the consideration of data’s fuzziness. CarlssonKorhenon approach, which is offered for the situations when all parameters are fuzzy in the
model configuration, is applied.
Keywords: Menu Planning, Nutrition, Fuzzy, 0-1 Linear Programming.
Jel Codes: C44, C61, Q01
1.INTRODUCTION
Brundtland Report defines sustainable development as a development understanding which
meets the needs of today’s generations without endangering the meeting ability of future
generations (Çetin, 2006). Sustainable development involves environment, economy, sociodemographic and health elements (Çelik, 2006). Health, as one of the main components of
sustainable development is under the influence of some factors such as nutrition, heredity,
climate and environmental conditions. Among them, nutrition is the primal one (Baysal,
2009).
Public food service system (PFSS) has become an important part of our lives as a result of
recent changes such as technological developments, transition from agricultural society to
industrial society and socio-economic and cultural changes of urban life. PFSS is defined as
the system via which people, who are either at home or working outside of their home, can
meet the food needs just as they wish to have it without going outside from their place. PFSS
institutions are those kinds of establishments that can programme and manage nutritional
needs and problems of specific groups from a single center. Places and institutions in which
people usually exist publicly and eat together are hospitals, schools, universities, nursing
homes, prisons, armies, hotels, offices, restaurants, institutions and factories (Atılan, 2008).
In the past, it was thought that only 10 or 15 percent of the general population benefit from
PFS. According to 2010 census data the rate of working people in Turkey reached up to %
50.5 (TÜİK, 2011). Therefore it can be inferred that the rate of people who benefit from PFS
also increased (Atılan, 2008).
The rapid growth in the world population increases the need for food and inadequacy of
agricultural production rises food prices (Kaypak, 2011). If the rapid growth tendency in
population, food production and consume of resources continue without any change, human
being will reach development limits of the planet in the next century (Kaypak, 2011).
In sustainable development the biggest target is to maximize the benefits and values of
sources for society. It is necessary in terms of exhaustible sources to determine optimal usage
levels of them (Çetin, 2006). With the increasing number of PFS people, an effective menu

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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

planning should be made in PFSS in the context of providing the continuity of human health
and efficient use of resources.
Menu planning is a complicated process that many factors should be taken into consideration
in planning such as cost, taste, variety, energy, need of nutrient etc. and mathematical models
are used in the planning of the process (Şenol, 2011). It is possible to see many studies on
menu planning in science literature some of which as follows: Anderson and Earle (1983),
Colavita and D’orsi (1990), Soden and Fletcer (1992) Sklan and Dariel (1993) Kılınç (2007),
Ediz and Yağdıran (2009), Şenol (2009), Mamat et al. (2011) and many other scholars.
The data is quite important to perform an accurate mathematical modeling. However, it is not
always possible to reach required exact/precise data for menu planning. Fuzzy modeling is
performed on the bases of fuzzy set theory which is developed by Zadeh (1965) when a given
date is inaccurate or fuzzy.
In this study, sample lunch menu is planned to be served in three or four vessels as
nonoptional menus for moderate activity job workers who are at the age of 19 to 30 years old.
This plan is prepared for the companies that work 5 days a week and the schedule is thought
monthly that means menus are for 20 days. Fuzzy 0-1 integer linear programming method is
used during the planning process of the study and fuzziness were taken into account. In this
model, 1280 decision variables and 752 constraints were used. Carlsson-Korhenon (1986)
approach, which is offered for the situations when all parameters are fuzzy in the model
configuration, is applied. GAMS 22.5 package program was used for all solutions.
2.Fuzzy Linear Programming
Fuzzy linear programming models are constructed by adding the concept of fuzziness to
linear programming models. These models are suggested for the solutions of problematic
models that have fuzziness in their parameters and can be modeled by using linear functions.
Especially it provides an opportunity to express the demands of decision maker flexibly
(Bozdağ and Türe, 2007).
There are many offered fuzzy linear programming models by scholars such as Zimmermann
(1983), Werners (1987), Carlsson-Korhonen (1986). These models change according to their
fuzziness in coefficients of the objective function, all parameters, objective function etc. or
membership function of the fuzzy number.
0-1 integer linear programming model, which its’ all parameters are fuzzy and with a
objective function that is based on minimization, can be expressed as follows:
Objective Function:
n
~
Zmin   cjx j
j1

Constraints:
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

n
~
~
 a ij x j  b i

i  1, 2,....,m

x j  0 or 1

j  1, 2,....,n

j1

According to fuzzy set theory each fuzzy number is a cluster. In the fuzzy sets each cluster
members are included to set by taking a degree (µ) ranging from 0 to 1. If the cluster element
takes a degree of 1, it is a full member of cluster, but if it takes a degree of 0, it cannot be a
member of cluster (Abdel Kader and Dugdale, 2001:457). The function of membership can
be defined in many ways depending on the situation of problem. The fuzzy number
which has monotone increasing or decreasing membership function and upper and lower limit
values are known can be defined as (Baykal, 2004):

 X~ (x)









x  x L  x U  x L  ~x

xU

xL

x

Graphic 1.Monotone Increasing Membership Function
 X~ (x)

x

L

x

U

x  x U  x U  x L  ~x

x

Graphic 2.Monotone Decreasing Membership Function

(x) values that are calculated according to (µ) refers to the degree of belonging to fuzzy set
( ) of (x).
Carlsson-Korhonen (1986) suggest a linear model, which can be used in the cases when
upper and lower limits of fuzzy numbers are known (namely
,
,
).
The model can be applied to solve for different membership functions of the fuzzy number by
valuing it from the applicable value (namely µ=1) into nonapplicable one (namely µ=0).
For the application of the model, it is needed that membership functions of fuzzy numbers
either should be increasing or decreasing. In the model, membership function of each fuzzy

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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

number is composed thus it is clarified from fuzziness. According to preferred (µ)
value/values of decision maker, the model is solved.
3.Menu Planning in PFSS

Nutrition is the use of nutrients to protect health and provide maintenance of life. The science
of nutrition deals not only with composition of nutrients (energy and nutrient quantities) but
also age, gender, working conditions etc. (Baysal, 2009). In this study the nutrient amounts
and quantities of required energy list in a lunch is given in table 1 as menu planning which is
prepared for those who are at the age of between 19 to 30 years old and work in medium
activity jobs.
Table 1. Average Amounts of Energy and Some Nutrition List Except Bread in a Lunch
Energy - Nutrition
Elements

Symbols That Are Used For
Parameter In The Study

Values

Energy (kkal)

E

750

Protein (g)

P

22,7

Vitamin A (μg)

A

750

Thiamin (mg)

T

0,38

Vitamin C (mg)

CV

34

Source: Ediz and Yağdıran, 2009, 73.

Non optional menu systems, which do not give permission to choose food, are generally used
in the PFSS that serve working staff. The number of the food menus in the container is
limited from 3 to 4 (Ediz and Yağdıran, 2009, Beyhan and Ciğerim, 1995). A skeleton of
menu is created while creating non optional menus. During this process, food groups are
taken as ground and later on sample food are taken from each group. Here are the main food
groups as follows (Ediz and Yağdıran, 2009, Beyhan and Ciğerim, 1995):
The First Group Meals: Meat food as large and small pieces, meatballs, fish, meat and
vegetable ones, dolma and sarma (Special Turkish meals), food legumes with meat.
The Second Group Meals: Soups, rice dishes, pasta, pastries, olive oil dishes.
The Third Group Meals: Fruits, salads, desserts and others.
In this study, menu plannings are prepared for in total 64 dishes groups, 22 of which are set
as the first group and 18 for second group and 24 for third group. Food names and codes
given for food in the study, values of energy and nutrition of a portion of food, and costs is
given in the table 2. The model is established on basis of the standards below. (Note 1)
 Food Costs (Ci): The cost of each meal is determined as portion. However, the term “a
portion” is relative itself when the weight of it and the amount of the content in a portion
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo








are considered. The amount of water, meat, onion, potato etc. in a given portion to a
worker is not going to be equal with another. In addition to this, prices of materials which
are used in the preparation of a meal can also be relative; moreover it is possible to meet
rotten materials in the meal too. But, it is not precisely possible to take all these variables
into account in the calculation of costs. Thanks to this fact, the costs of portions are
fuzzied from right and left with the percentage of 5. The feasibility of lowering the cost of
a meal gets lower as the cost of meal goes down. In other words, the more the price of
food increases, the more the degree of membership increase. For this reason, it is assumed
as that the fuzzied number has membership function that monotonically increases.
The Number of Meals: In each menu, 3 or 4 kinds of food are served by choosing from
first and second groups one for each and in addition to these one or two from third group.
[1-2-3]
Variety of the Menu: To be able to provide the menu diversity during planned time; each
food should be chosen from first and third groups meals maximum 1 time and minimum 1,
maximum 3 times from second group. [4-5-6] Each food served any day should be given
again 5 days later at the earliest.[7]
Energy and Nutrient Values: Due to the fact that the term of a portion is relative, the
amount of nutrients and energy in a portion will be different. Therefore, the energy and
nutritional values of a portion is fuzzied with 5 percentage from left and right. The
applicability of increasement in the energy and values of nutrient of food decreases as the
values of energy and nutrient increase. In other words, as a meal’s energy and nutrient
value increase, so as the degree of membership decreases. For this reason, the fuzzied
number is assumed to have a membership function that linearly decreasing.
Energy and Nutrient Element Needs: The values in the table 1 are average values and
calculated without bread. But, energy and nutrient element needs change for each staff in
real life according to gender, age, physical characteristics, occupation and so on.
Moreover, because of the fact that the amount of bread that is eaten by each worker is
different, the nutrient element and energy amount that are taken from eaten bread will also
be different. That is why the value of energy and nutrient element needs are fuzzied with 5
percentages from right and left and then used in the model as functional membership that
linearly increases. [8-9-10-11]

Here are some rules to be taken into consideration while creating skeleton of meal groups.
These rules can be listed as follows (Ediz and Yağdıran, 2009):













Meaty vegetable meats should not be served next to the olive oil vegetable meals. [12]
Dolmas (a Turkish food) should not be served next to rice. [13]
Rice based meals should be preferred next to meaty legume meals. [14]
With rice, pasta and pastries, dessert should be served. [15]
Salad should not be served next to olive oil vegetable dishes. [16]
Salad should not be served next to meaty vegetable dishes. [17]
Mutter milk should not be served next to soups. [18]
Dishes include potatoes should not be served together. [19]
Dishes include yoghurt should not be served together. [20]
Dishes include rise should not be served at the same time. [21]
Dishes include carrots should not be served together. [22]
Dishes include beans and squash should not be served together. [23]

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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Establishment of the Model
Decision Variables:
1
FGij  
0

if i. food is served on j. day

1
SGij  
0

if i. food is served on j. day

1
TGij  
0

if i. food is served on j. day

if i. food is not served on j. day

if i. food is not served on j. day

if i. food is not served on j. day

i  1, 2,...,22

j  1, 2,....,20

i  1, 2,....,18

j  1, 2,....,20

i  1, 2,....,24

j  1, 2,....,20

Objective Function:
20 22 ~
20 18 ~
20 24 ~
Zmin    Ci * FGij    Ci * SGij   Ci * TGij
j1i 1

j1i 1

j1i 1

Constrains:
22

 FGij  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …...……….[1]

i 1

18

1   SGij  2

j  1, 2,....,20 ……...…....[2]

i 1

24

 TGij  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …...………[3]

i 1
20

 FGij  1

i  1, 2,....,22 …...………[4]

j1

20

1   SGij  3

i  1, 2,....,20 ……...…....[5]

j1

20

 TGij  1

i  1, 2,....,22 …...………[6]

j1

n 4

 TGij  1

n  1,2,....,16

j n

22 ~

i  1, 2,....,22 …...………[7]

18 ~
24 ~
~
 Ei * FGij   Ei * SGij   Ei * TGij  7 5 0

j  1, 2,....,20 …...……….[8]

22 ~
 Pi
i 1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………….[9]

i 1

i 1

i 1

18 ~
24 ~
~
* FGij   Pi * SGij   Pi * TGij  22,7
i 1

i 1

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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

22 ~
 Ti
i 1

18 ~
24 ~
~
* FGij   Ti * SGij   Ti * TGij  0, 3 8
i 1

i 1

22 ~

18 ~
24 ~
~
 CVi * FGij   CVi * SGij   CVi * TGij  3 4

i 1

i 1

i 1

22

6

i 13

i 1

20

13

i 19

i 12

22

6

18

i  21

i 1

i 14

18

4

i 12

i 1

 FGij   SGij  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………..[13]

 FGij   SGij   SGij  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………...[14]

 SGij   TGij  1
8

i 1

i 5

22

8

i 13

i 5

j  1, 2,....,20 …………..[11]

j  1, 2,....,20 ….……….[12]

 FGij   SGij  1

6

j  1, 2,....,20 …….......…[10]

j  1, 2,....,20 …………...[15]

 SGij   TGij  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………...[16]

 FGij   TGij  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………...[17]

11

 SGij  TG22 j  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………...[18]

i 7
6

 FGij  FG10 j  FG12 j  FG16 j  SG6 j  TG8 j  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………..[19]

FG15 j  FG20 j  SG5 j  SG8 j  TG22 j  TG23 j  1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………..[20]

i 1

20

3

i 19

i 2

FG 4 j  FG 7 j  FG11j   FGij   SG ij  SG8 j  SG12 j  TG1j  1
9

FG3 j   FGij  SG6 j  1

j  1, 2,..,20 ………...…..[22]

i 7

9

17

21

i 8

i 16

i  20

j  1, 2,..,20 …….[21]

 FGij   FGij   FGij  SG4 j  1

j  1, 2,..,20 …………….[23]

The membership function of energy need fuzzy data can be calculated as follows:
E  787,5E~  712,5(1  E~ )  712,5  75E~

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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

The constrains, of which right side constants are fuzzy, are written below as in the form of
membership function. All other fuzzy data and membership functions are given in the table 3.
22 ~

18 ~
24 ~
 Ei * FGij   Ei * SGij   Ei * TGij  712,5  75E~

j  1, 2,....,20 ………..……[8]

22 ~
 Pi
i 1

18 ~
24 ~
* FGij   Pi * SGij   Pi * TGij  21,57  2,27~P

j  1, 2,....,20 …..………....[9]

22 ~
 Ti
i 1

18 ~
24 ~
* FGij   Ti * SGij   Ti * TGij  0,36  0,04T~

j  1, 2,....,20 ..…………..[10]

i 1

i 1

i 1

i 1

i 1

i 1

i 1

22 ~

18 ~
24 ~
~
 CVi * FGij   CVi * SGij   CVi * TGij  32,3  3,4C
V

i 1

i 1

i 1

j  1, 2,....,20 …………..[11]

4.CONCLUSIONS
According to suggested model; menus that are obtained for the 3 different membership
functions (0, 0,5 ve 1) are given at the table 4. Menus that are not possible to apply are shown
in the column of µ=0 and certain applicable menus are shown at the µ=1. 20 days’ menu
costs of each person for these membership degrees are found respectively as 27,34 TL, 28,34
TL and 32,38 TL. In other words, the costs of menus for each person can vary between 27,34
TL - 32,38 TL
As it is clearly seen in this study, menu planning is such a complicated process that many
different elements should be taken into consideration during the period. It is quite hard in a
handmade menu planning to take all necessary conditions into consideration to obtain
minimum costs. Because of this reason, making a menu planning via mathematical models
not only helps to save time but also helps to eliminate possible mistakes. Additionally
regarding the fuzziness of the data gains a flexibility for models.
REFERENCES
Abdel Kader, M.G. and Dugdale, D. (2001) Evaluating Investment in Advanced
Manufacturing Technology: A Fuzzy Set Theory Approach, British Accounting Review, 33,
455-489.
Anderson, A.M. and, Earle, M.D. (1983) Diet Planning in the Third World by Linear and
Goal Programming, Journal of Reseach Society, 34, 9-16.
Atılan, M. (2007) Adana’da Toplu Beslenme Yapılan Bazı Kurumların Menülerinin
Değerlendirilmesi ve Tüketici Görüşlerinin Belirlenmesi, Master’s Thesis, Adana.
Baykal, N. and BEYAN, T. (2004) Bulanık Mantık İlke ve Temelleri, Bıçaklar Publishing,
No: 9, Ankara.
Baysal, A. (2006) Beslenme, Hatipoğlu Publishing, 12. Ed., Ankara.

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Beyhan, Y., and Ciğerim, N. (1995) Toplu Beslenme Sistemlerinde Menü Yönetimi ve
Denetimi, Kök Publishing, Ankara.
Bozdağ, N. and Türe, H. (2007) Bulanık Doğrusal Programlama ve İMKB Üzerine Bir
Uygulama, 8. Congress of Econometrics and Statistics, Malatya, Turkey.
Colavita, C. and D’orsi, R. (1990) Linear Programming and Pediatric Dietetics, British
Journal of Nutrition, 64, 307-317.
Carlsson, C. Korhonen, P. (1986) A Parametric Approach to Fuzzy Linear Programming,
Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 20, 17-30.
Çetin, M. (2006) Teori ve Uygulamada Bölgesel Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma, Cumhuriyet
University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 7 (1), 1-20.
Çelik, Y. (2006) Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Kavramı ve Sağlık, Hacettepe Journal of Health
Administration, 9 (1), 19-37.
Kaypak, Ş. (2011) Küreselleşme Sürecinde Sürdürülebilir Bir Kalkınma İçin Sürdürülebilir
Bir Çevre, KMU Journal of Social and Economic Research, 13 (20), 19-33.
Ediz, A. and Yağdıran, Y. (2009) Hedef Programlama Tekniği ile Menü Planlaması, Gazi
Üniversitesi The Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 11
(1), 45-74.
Mamat, M., Rokhayati, Y., Noor, M. M. and Mohd İ. (2011) Optimizing Human Diet
Problem with Fuzzy Price Using Fuzzy Linear Programming Approach, Pakistan
Journal of Nutrition, 10 (6), 594-598.
Şenol, S. (2011) Menü Planlama Sorununa Karma Tamsayılı Programlama Modeli İle
Çözüm Önerisi, Master’s Thesis, Isparta.
Sklan, D. and Dariel, I. (1993) Diet Planning for Humans Using Mixed-Integer Linear
Programming, British Journal of Nutrition, 70, 27-35.
Soden, P.M. and Fletcer, L.R. (1992) Modifying Diets to Satisfy Nutritional Requirements
Using Linear Programming, British Journal of Nutrition, 68, 565-572.
Kılınç, E. (2007) Diyet Problemlerinin Optimizasyonu ve Bir Uygulama, Master’s Thesis,
Isparta.
TÜİK, (2011) Newsletter, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=8570.
Werners, B. (1987) An Interactive Fuzzy Programming System, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 23,
131-147.
Zadeh, L.A. (1965) Fuzzy Sets, Information and Control, 8, 338-353.
Zimmermann, H.J. (1983) Fuzzy Mathematical Programming, Computers and Operations
Research, 10 (4), 291-298
15

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Note 1: Numbers that are in the square brackets indicate constraint numbers in model.

16

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Table 2. The Information of the Meals
Total Energy and Nutrient Values
of a Portion Meals

With Meat

Vegetable Dishes

The First Group Meals

Meat Dishes

Meal
Kods

The Name of Meals

The Cost of
Energy Protein Thiamin Vitamin The Meals
(kcal)
(gr)
(mg)
C (mg)
(TL)
Ei

Pi

Ti

Ni

FG1

Cold Cuts

339

19,6

0,1

12,4

1,227

FG2

Roast Meat

348

18,4

0,1

12,3

1,191

FG3

Boiled Veal

369,4

36,6

0,1

8,8

1,209

FG4

Kadınbudu Meatballs

417

16,2

0,2

15,2

0,985

FG5

Oven Meatballs

309

15,4

0,2

15,2

0,905

FG6

İzmir Meatballs

343

14,6

0,2

14,1

0,877

FG7

Rosted Lamb

416,6

43

0,2

0,3

1,708

FG8

Schnitzel Chicken

534,2

54,7

0,3

18,1

1,047

FG9

Grilled Chicken

337,6

47,8

0,2

18,4

0,978

FG10

Boiled Chicken

259

26,2

0,2

14,6

0,646

FG11

Chicken with soy sauce

315,1

39,9

0,1

0,1

0,795

FG12

Whitefish

489,6

52,3

0,3

33

0,916

FG13

Cabbage stew

190

10,3

0,1

65,8

0,662

FG14

Cauliflower

187

11,3

0,2

121,3

0,799

FG15

Spinach and rice with
minced meat

276

15,6

0,2

77,8

0,853

FG16

Mixed vegetable pot

221

10,1

0,1

31,7

0,700

FG17

Green beans with meat

222

11,1

0,2

41,3

0,774

FG18

Stuffed Eggplant

270

9,6

0,1

22,8

0,845

FG19

Rice and minced meat
stuffed bell peppers

226

11,2

0,1

84,2

0,908

FG20

Stuffed courgettes

247

11,1

0,1

21,7

0,862

FG21

Dry bean with meat

336

19,1

0,3

3,3

0,518

17

�With Olive Oil

The Second Group Meals

3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

FG22

Chick peas with meat

350

17,4

0,3

2,3

0,516

SG1

Imambayıldı

194

2,1

0,1

18,3

0,293

SG2

Stuffed green peppers
with olive oil

265

4,6

0,1

88,8

0,444

SG3

Stuffed grape leaves with
olive oil

268

4,7

0,1

42,1

0,327

SG4

Green runner beans

177

3,5

0,1

38

0,267

SG5

Horse bean with olive oil

266

11,3

0,5

46,5

0,362

SG6 Kidney bean with olive oil

328

13,3

0,2

10

0,274

Table 2. The Information of the Meals (Cont.)
Total Energy and Nutrient Values of
a Portion Meals

The
Thir
d
Gro
up
Dess
Meal
erts
s

Pies

Pilafs and Pastas

Soaps

Meal
Kods

The Cost of
The Name of Meals Energy Protein Thiamin Vitamin The Meals
(kcal)
(gr)
(mg)
C (mg)
(TL)
Ei

Pi

Ti

Ni

SG7

Tomato

161

3,4

0,1

1,3

0,094

SG8

Yoghurt

115

3,3

0,1

0,3

0,092

SG9

Lentil

183

7,9

0,2

2,2

0,063

SG10

Noodle

115

1,8

0

0,3

0,066

SG11

Flour

184

2,8

0,1

0

0,043

SG12

Rice Pilaf

336

4,7

0,1

0

0,129

SG13

Bulgur Pilaf

291

6,5

0,2

10,5

0,068

SG14

Macaroni timbale

505

19,4

0,2

0,4

0,433

SG15

Macaroni with cheese

354

10,7

0,1

0

0,208

SG16

Rolled pastry

421

15

0,3

3,3

0,610

SG17

Water heurek

293,1

9,4

0,1

6,7

0,237

SG18

Spinach Pie

368,5

11,1

0,1

22,4

0,326

TG1

Rice Pudding

347

8,4

0,1

2,2

0,372

18

�Others

Fruits

Salads

3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

TG2

Syrup-soaked pastry

512,3

4,3

0

0,2

0,218

TG3

Sekerpare

482,6

5

0

0,2

0,215

TG4

Revani

367,6

4,8

0

0,2

0,208

TG5

Mixed Salad

123

1,3

0,1

28,8

0,278

TG6

Curly Salad

84

0,9

0,1

10,6

0,241

TG7

Shepherd Salad

113

1,8

0,1

52,2

0,301

TG8

Potato Salad

184,9

3,8

0,2

63,5

0,261

TG9

Apple

101

0,5

0

10

0,281

TG10

Apricot

72

0,9

0

11

0,270

TG11

Banana

153,3

1,8

0

13,8

0,529

TG12

Cherry

63

1,6

0

14

0,413

TG13

Grape

108

0,9

0,1

4

0,300

TG14

Melon

77

1,4

0,1

80

0,233

TG15

Watermelon

73

1,3

0,1

15

0,175

TG16

Orange

69

1,1

0,1

83

0,186

TG17

Mandarin

70

1

0,1

46

0,238

TG18

Pearch

83

1,1

0

39

0,247

TG19

Pears

113

0,5

0

10

0,248

TG20

Strawberry

57

1,1

0

100

0,180

TG21

Plum

59

0,7

0

9

0,188

TG22

Buttermilk

45

2,6

0

0

0,250

TG23

Yogurt

194

10,56

0,2

3

0,330

TG24

Pickle

10

0,6

0

0,7

0,480

Source: Şenol 2011, 74-125.

19

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Table 3. Fuzzy Data and Membership Functions
M.
Kods

Energy (kcal)
EL

EU

M.Ship Funct.

Protein (gr)
PL

PU

M.Ship Funct.

Thiamin (mg)
TL

TU

M.Ship Funct.

Vitamin C (mg)
CVL

CVU

The Cost of The Meals

M.Ship Funct. CL

CU M.Ship Funct.

FG1

322,05 355,95

355,95-33,9µ 18,62 20,58

20,58-1,96µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

11,78

13,02

13,02-1,24µ 1,17 1,29

1,17+0,12µ

FG2

330,60 365,40

365,4-34,8µ 17,48 19,32

19,32-1,84µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

11,69

12,92

12,915-1,23µ 1,13 1,25

1,13+0,12µ

FG3

350,93 387,87 387,87-36,94µ 34,77 38,43

38,43-3,66µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

8,36

9,24

9,24-0,88µ 1,15 1,27

1,15+0,12µ

FG4

396,15 437,85

437,85-41,7µ 15,39 17,01

17,01-1,62µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

14,44

15,96

15,96-1,52µ 0,94 1,03

0,94+0,1µ

FG5

293,55 324,45

324,45-30,9µ 14,63 16,17

16,17-1,54µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

14,44

15,96

15,96-1,52µ 0,86 0,95

0,86+0,09µ

FG6

325,85 360,15

360,15-34,3µ 13,87 15,33

15,33-1,46µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

13,40

14,81

14,81-1,41µ 0,83 0,92

0,83+0,09µ

FG7

395,77 437,43 437,43-41,66µ 40,85 45,15

45,15-4,3µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

0,29

0,32

0,312-0,03µ 1,62 1,79

1,62+0,17µ

FG8

507,49 560,91 560,91-53,42µ 51,97 57,44

57,44-5,47µ

0,29

0,32

0,32-0,03µ

17,20

19,01

19,06-1,81µ 0,99

1,1

0,99+0,1µ

FG9

320,72 354,48 354,48-33,76µ 45,41 50,19

50,19-4,78µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

17,48

19,32

19,32-1,84µ 0,93 1,03

0,93+0,1µ

FG10

246,05 271,95

271,95-25,9µ 24,89 27,51

27,51-2,62µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

13,87

15,33

15,33-1,46µ 0,61 0,68

0,61+0,06µ

FG11

299,35 330,86 330,86-31,51µ 37,91 41,90

41,9-3,99µ

0,10

0,11

0,105-0,01µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ 0,76 0,83

0,76+0,08µ

FG12

465,12 514,08 514,08-48,96µ 49,69 54,92

54,92-5,23µ

0,29

0,32

0,32-0,03µ

31,35

34,65

34,65-3,3µ 0,87 0,96

0,87+0,09µ

FG13

180,50 199,50

9,79 10,82

10,82-1,03µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

62,51

69,09

0,7

0,63+0,07µ

FG14

177,65 196,35

196,35-18,7µ 10,74 11,87

11,87-1,13µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ 115,24 127,37 127,37-12,13µ 0,76 0,84

0,76+0,08µ

FG15

262,20 289,80

289,8-27,6µ 14,82 16,38

16,38-1,56µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

0,81+0,09µ

199,5-19µ

20

73,91

81,69

69,09-6,58µ 0,63

81,69-7,78µ 0,81

0,9

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

9,60 10,61

10,61-1,01µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

30,12

33,29

33,29-3,17µ 0,67 0,74

0,67+0,07µ

233,1-22,2µ 10,55 11,66

11,66-1,11µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

39,24

43,37

43,37-4,13µ 0,74 0,81

0,74+0,08µ

9,12 10,08

10,08-0,96µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

21,66

23,94

23,94-2,28µ

0,8 0,89

0,8+0,08µ

214,70 237,30

237,3-22,6µ 10,64 11,76

11,76-1,12µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

79,99

88,41

88,41-8,42µ 0,86 0,95

0,86+0,09µ

FG20

234,65 259,35

259,35-24,7µ 10,55 11,66

11,655-1,11µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

20,62

22,79

22,79-2,17µ 0,82 0,91

0,82+0,09µ

FG21

319,20 352,80

352,8-33,6µ 18,15 20,06

20,06-1,91µ

0,29

0,32

0,32-0,03µ

3,14

3,47

3,47-0,33µ 0,49 0,54

0,49+0,05µ

FG22

332,50 367,50

367,5-35µ 16,53 18,27

18,27-1,74µ

0,29

0,32

0,32-0,03µ

2,19

2,42

2,42-0,23µ 0,49 0,54

0,49+0,05µ

SG1

184,30 203,70

203,7-19,4µ

2,00

2,21

2,205-0,21µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

17,39

19,22

19,22-1,83µ 0,28 0,31

0,28+0,03µ

SG2

251,75 278,25

278,25-26,5µ

4,37

4,83

4,83-0,46µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

84,36

93,24

93,24-8,88µ 0,42 0,47

0,42+0,04µ

SG3

254,60 281,40

281,4-26,8µ

4,47

4,94

4,94-0,47µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

40,00

44,21

44,21-4,21µ 0,31 0,34

0,31+0,03µ

SG4

168,15 185,85

185,85-17,7µ

3,33

3,68

3,68-0,35µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

36,10

39,90

39,9-3,8µ 0,25 0,28

0,25+0,03µ

SG5

252,70 279,30

279,3-26,6µ 10,74 11,87

11,87-1,13µ

0,48

0,53

0,53-0,05µ

44,18

48,83

48,83-4,65µ 0,34 0,38

0,34+0,04µ

SG6

311,60 344,40

344,4-32,8µ 12,64 13,97

13,97-1,33µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

9,50

10,50

10,5-1µ 0,26 0,29

0,26+0,03µ

SG7

152,95 169,05

169,05-16,1µ

3,23

3,57

3,57-0,34µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

1,24

1,37

1,37-0,13µ 0,09

0,1

0,09+0,01µ

SG8

109,25 120,75

120,75-11,5µ

3,14

3,47

3,47-0,33µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

0,29

0,32

0,32-0,03µ 0,09

0,1

0,09+0,01µ

SG9

173,85 192,15

192,15-18,3µ

7,51

8,30

8,3-0,79µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

2,09

2,31

2,31-0,22µ 0,06 0,07

0,06+0,01µ

SG10

109,25 120,75

120,75-11,5µ

1,71

1,89

1,89-0,18µ

0

0

0

0,29

0,32

0,32-0,03µ 0,06 0,07

0,06+0,01µ

FG16

209,95 232,05

FG17

210,90 233,10

FG18

256,50 283,50

FG19

232,05-22,1µ

283,5-27µ

21

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Table 3. Fuzzy Data and Membership Functions (Cont.)
M.
Kods

Energy (kcal)
EL

EU

M.Ship Funct.

Protein (gr)
PL

PU

M.Ship Funct.

Thiamin (mg)
TL

TU

Vitamin C (mg)

M.Ship Funct.

CVL

CVU

The Cost of The Meals

M.Ship Funct. CL

CU M.Ship Funct.

SG11

174,80 193,20

193,2-18,4µ

2,66

2,94

2,94-0,28µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

0

0

0 0,04 0,05

0,04+0µ

SG12

319,20 352,80

352,8-33,6µ

4,47

4,94

4,94-0,47µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

0

0

0 0,12 0,14

0,12+0,01µ

SG13

276,45 305,55

305,55-29,1µ

6,18

6,83

6,83-0,65µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

9,98

11,03

11,03-1,05µ 0,06 0,07

0,06+0,01µ

SG14

479,75 530,25

530,25-50,5µ 18,43 20,37

20,37-1,94µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

0,38

0,42

0,42-0,04µ 0,41 0,45

0,41+0,04µ

SG15

336,30 371,70

371,7-35,4µ 10,17 11,24

11,24-1,07µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

0

0

SG16

399,95 442,05

442,05-42,1µ 14,25 15,75

15,75-1,5µ

0,29

0,32

0,32-0,03µ

3,14

SG17

278,45 307,76 307,76-29,31µ

9,87

9,87-0,94µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

SG18

350,08 386,93 386,93-36,85µ 10,55 11,66

11,66-1,11µ

0,10

0,11

TG1

329,65 364,35

364,35-34,7µ

7,98

8,82

8,82-0,84µ

0,10

TG2

486,69 537,92 537,92-51,23µ

4,09

4,52

4,52-0,43µ

TG3

458,47 506,73 506,73-48,26µ

4,75

5,25

TG4

349,22 385,98 385,98-36,76µ

4,56

TG5

116,85 129,15

129,15-12,3µ

88,20

107,35 118,65

TG6
TG7

79,80

0,2 0,22

0,2+0,02µ

3,47

3,47-0,33µ 0,58 0,64

0,58+0,06µ

6,37

7,04

7,04-0,67µ 0,23 0,25

0,23+0,02µ

0,11-0,01µ

21,28

23,52

23,52-2,24µ 0,31 0,34

0,31+0,03µ

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

2,09

2,31

2,31-0,22µ 0,35 0,39

0,35+0,04µ

0

0

0

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ 0,21 0,23

0,21+0,02µ

5,25-0,5µ

0

0

0

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

0,2 0,23

0,2+0,02µ

5,04

5,04-0,48µ

0

0

0

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

0,2 0,22

0,2+0,02µ

1,24

1,37

1,365-0,13µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

27,36

30,24

30,24-2,88µ 0,26 0,29

0,26+0,03µ

88,2-8,4µ

0,86

0,95

0,95-0,09µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

10,07

11,13

11,13-1,06µ 0,23 0,25

0,23+0,02µ

118,65-11,3µ

1,71

1,89

1,89-0,18µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

49,59

54,81

54,81-5,22µ 0,29 0,32

0,29+0,03µ

8,93

22

0

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

TG8

3,61

3,99

3,99-0,38µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

60,33

66,68

66,68-6,35µ 0,25 0,27

0,25+0,03µ

106,05-10,1µ

0,48

0,53

0,53-0,05µ

0

0

0

9,5

10,5

10,5-1µ 0,27

0,3

0,27+0,03µ

75,6-7,2µ

0,86

0,95

0,95-0,09µ

0

0

0

10,45

11,55

11,55-1,1µ 0,26 0,28

0,26+0,03µ

145,64 160,97 160,97-15,33µ

1,71

1,89

1,89-0,18µ

0

0

0

13,11

14,49

175,66 194,15 194,15-18,49µ

TG9

95,95 106,05

TG10

68,40

TG11
TG12
TG13

75,60

14,49-1,38µ

0,5 0,56

0,5+0,05µ

66,15

66,15-6,3µ

1,52

1,68

1,68-0,16µ

0

0

0

13,3

14,7

14,7-1,4µ 0,39 0,43

0,39+0,04µ

102,60 113,40

113,4-10,8µ

0,86

0,95

0,95-0,09µ

0,10

0,11

0,11-0,01µ

3,8

4,2

4,2-0,4µ 0,29 0,32

0,29+0,03µ

59,85

TG14

73,15

80,85

80,85-7,7µ

1,33

1,47

1,47-0,14µ 0,095 0,105

0,105-0,01µ

76

84

84-8µ 0,22 0,24

0,22+0,02µ

TG15

69,35

76,65

76,65-7,3µ

1,24

1,37

1,37-0,13µ 0,095 0,105

0,105-0,01µ

14,25

15,75

15,75-1,5µ 0,17 0,18

0,17+0,02µ

TG16

65,55

72,45

72,45-6,9µ

1,05

1,16

1,16-0,11µ 0,095 0,105

0,105-0,01µ

78,85

87,15

87,15-8,3µ 0,18

0,2

0,18+0,02µ

TG17

66,50

73,50

73,5-7µ

0,95

1,05

1,05-0,1µ 0,095 0,105

0,105-0,01µ

43,7

48,3

48,3-4,6µ 0,23 0,25

0,23+0,02µ

TG18

78,85

87,15

87,15-8,3µ

1,05

1,16

1,16-0,11µ

0

0

0-0µ

37,05

40,95

40,95-3,9µ 0,23 0,26

0,23+0,02µ

107,35 118,65

118,65-11,3µ

0,48

0,53

0,53-0,05µ

0

0

0-0µ

9,5

10,5

10,5-1µ 0,24 0,26

0,24+0,02µ

105-10µ 0,17 0,19

0,17+0,02µ

TG19
TG20

54,15

59,85

59,85-5,7µ

1,05

1,16

1,16-0,11µ

0

0

0-0µ

95

105

TG21

56,05

61,95

61,95-5,9µ

0,67

0,74

0,74-0,07µ

0

0

0-0µ

8,55

9,45

TG22

42,75

47,25

47,25-4,5µ

2,47

2,73

2,73-0,26µ

0

0

0-0µ

0

203,7-19,4µ 10,03 11,09

11,09-1,06µ

0,19

0,21

0,21-0,02µ

0,63-0,06µ

0

0

0-0µ

TG23
TG24

184,30 203,70
9,50

10,50

10,5-1µ

0,57

0,63

23

0,2

0,18+0,02µ

0

0 0,24 0,26

0,24+0,03µ

2,85

3,15

3,15-0,3µ 0,31 0,35

0,31+0,03µ

0,67

0,74

9,45-0,9µ 0,18

0,74-0,07µ 0,46

0,5

0,46+0,05µ

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Table 4. Menus According to Membership Degrees
Day

µ=0

µ=0.5

µ=1

Yoghurt Soap

Lentil Soap

Roast Meat

Cauliflower

Mixed vegetable pot

Horse bean with olive oil

Macaroni with cheese

Bulgur Pilaf

Sekerpare

Apricot

Plum

Lentil Soap

Flour Soap

Yoghurt Soap

Rosted Lamb

Stuffed courgettes

Stuffed Eggplant

Shepherd Salad

Macaroni with cheese

Rolled pastry

Melon

Cherry

Flour Soap

Noodle Soap

Rosted Lamb

Boiled Chicken

Cabbage stew

Bulgur Pilaf

Stuffed grape leaves with
olive oil

Rolled pastry

Potato Salad

Grape

Apricot

Roast Meat

Schnitzel Chicken

Lentil Soap

Horse bean with olive oil

Stuffed green peppers with
olive oil

Dry bean with meat

Revani

Grape

Rice Pilaf

1

2

3

4

Strawberry

5

Soya Soslu Tavuk (Rice
Pilaf G.)

Yoghurt Soap

Soya Soslu Tavuk (Rice
Pilaf G.)

Kidney bean with olive oil

Stuffed Eggplant

Kidney bean with olive oil

Melon

Spinach Pie

Tomato Soap

Mandarin

Orange

Grilled Chicken

Kadınbudu Meatballs

Rice Pilaf

Stuffed grape leaves with
olive oil

Yoghurt Soap
6
Mixed vegetable pot

24

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Macaroni timbale

Potato Salad

Apple

Flour Soap
Melon

Lentil Soap

Flour Soap

İzmir Meatballs

Cabbage stew

Cauliflower

Green runner beans

Rice Pilaf

Water heurek

Noodle Soap

Plum

Pears

Yogurt

Flour Soap

Lentil Soap

Yoghurt Soap

Green runner beans

İmambayıldı

Boiled Veal

Oven Meatballs

Roast Meat

Bulgur Pilaf

Sekerpare

Watermelon

Mixed Salad

Dry bean with meat

Noodle Soap

Lentil Soap

Bulgur Pilaf

Stuffed grape leaves with
olive oil

Cabbage stew

Sekerpare

Boiled Chicken

Rolled pastry

Yoğurt

Plum

Whitefish

Kadınbudu Meatballs

Tomato Soap

Spinach Pie

Maccaroni with cheese

Spinach and rice with
minced meat

Buttermilk

Mixed Salad

Spinach Pie

7

8

9

10

Watermelon
Table 4. Menus According to Membership Degrees (Cont.)
İzmir Meatballs

Boiled Veal

Flour Soap

Water heurek

Horse bean with olive oil

İmambayıldı

Curly Salad

Revani

Grilled Chicken

11
Rice Pudding

12

25

Noodle Soap

Soya Soslu Tavuk (Rice
Pilaf G.)

Noodle Soap

Schnitzel Chicken

Kidney bean with olive oil

Cauliflower

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Potato Salad

13

Bulgur Pilaf

Macaroni timbale

Orange

Grape

Stuffed courgettes

Lentil Soap

Schnitzel Chicken

Rolled pastry

Spinach and rice with
minced meat

Stuffed green peppers with
olive oil

Mandarin

Sekerpare

Mandarin

Kadınbudu Meatballs

Flour Soap

Cold cuts

Bulgur Pilaf

Cold cuts

Horse bean with olive oil

Mixed Salad

Spinach Pie

Revani

14
Curly Salad
Lentil Soap

Whitefish

Tomato Soap

Green beans with meat

Rice Pilaf

Chick peas with meat

Syrup-soaked pastry

Apple

Rice Pilaf

15
Pearch

16

Spinach and rice with
minced meat

Tomato Soap

Lentil Soap

Macaroni timbale

Stuffed grape leaves with
olive oil

Oven Meatballs

Pearch

İzmir Meatballs

Water heurek

Syrup-soaked pastry

Shepherd Salad

Cold cuts

Green beans with meat

Flour Soap

İmambayıldı

Macaroni timbale

Mixed vegetable pot

Yoğurt

Buttermilk

Rolled pastry

17
Apple

18

26

Flour Soap

Noodle Soap

Boiled Chicken

Stuffed green peppers with
olive oil

Dry bean with meat

Green runner beans

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Boiled Veal

Bulgur Pilaf

Bulgur Pilaf

Orange

Strawberry

Pears

Grilled Chicken

Oven Meatballs

Yoghurt Soap

Bulgur Pilaf

Green runner beans

Green beans with meat

Pears

Rice Pudding

Macaroni timbale

19
Apricot
Tomato Soap

Chick peas with meat

Whitefish

Stuffed Eggplant

Rice Pilaf

Maccaroni with cheese

Maccaroni with cheese

Pearch

Curly Salad

20
Watermelon

Awareness-rasing Sustainable Business and Corporate Social Responsibility Among
Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

Huseyin Onlem Ersoz1,Ramazan Kilic2
1Adnan Menderes University, Karacasu Memnune Inci Vocational School, Aydin, Turkey
2Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Aydin,
Turkey
E-mails: hoersoz@adu.edu.tr, rkilic@adu.edu.tr

Abstract
Sustainable business and corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities have been raising in
Turkey since 2001 Economic Crisis. Corporate social responsibility (CSR), is an approach
developed with the concept of sustainable development. CSR is a kind of self-regulation
management and organization model. CSR means that a company's business model should
be socially responsible and environmentally sustainable. It refers to responsible corporate
action beyond legal requirements; CSR manifests itself throughout the value chain, in a
company’s treatment of its employees and in its dealings with the relevant stakeholders.
Especially, most large-sized companies in Turkey at least have played some roles on
sustainable development with their projects, activities or reports. Most of them have relations
with the world business environment. That’s why they could find chance and had to use
sustainable strategic management methods to prevent their stakeholders. But many small and
27

�</text>
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Ibrahim, Güngör
Sezgin, Irmak
Semih, Şenol</text>
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                <text>For the sustainability of development, effective usage of sources and the determination of  their optimal usage levels are very important. Healthiness, as one of the main components of  sustainable development, is under influences of many factors one of which is nutrition, and  the number of people who benefit from public nutrition services are increasing every day.The growth in the number of people necessitates that an effective menu planning must be  done in order to keep the continuity of sustainable public nutrition systems.  In this study, detailed plans of 20 days’ lunch menu lists are prepared for workers who are at  the age of between 19 to 30 years old. Fuzzy 0-1 integer linear programming technique was  used during the planning process with the consideration of data’s fuzziness. Carlsson-  Korhenon approach, which is offered for the situations when all parameters are fuzzy in the  model configuration, is applied.  Keywords: Menu Planning, Nutrition, Fuzzy, 0-1 Linear Programming.</text>
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                    <text>3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Burdur’un Sesi Newspaper, 27 February 1960, S.1459, p.1

ANOTHER REFERENCE
1.Keleş, R.(1992), Yerinden Yönetim ve Siyaset, İstanbul: Cem Yayınları,
2.Koçak, C(2007), “Siyasi Tarih 1923-1950”, Türkiye Tarihi 4, Çağdaş Türkiye 19081980,Yayın Yönetmeni Sina Akşin, İstanbul: Cem Yayınları.

3.http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957_T%C3%BCrkiye_genel_se%C3%A7im

leri

4.http://www.msxlabs.org/forum/soru-cevap/319505-yetki-merkezi-yonetim-yerel-yonetimnedir.html#ixzz1pf2hRDvL.
.

An Empirical Research On Relation Between Learning Organization And Visionary
Leadership In Kutahya, Turkey

Kemal Demirci1, Nuray Mercan1, Yaşar Aksanyar1, Bayram Alamur2, Ayşenur Altinay3
1Dumlupinar University Institute of Social Sciences, Kutahya, Turkey
2Balikesir University Havran Vocational School Of Higher Education,
3Usak University Vocational School Of Higher Education, Kutahya, Turkey
E-mails: mkdemirci26@hotmail.com, snmmercan@yahoo.com, ayyasari@gmail.com,
alamur_bayram@hotmail.com, aysenuraltinay@hotmail.com

Abstract
EINSTEIN, has seen the future dream and information power, then performed his genius
by dreaming. To dream the aimed future and to focus on, to endeavour on targets, to build a
''vision'' are the powers which a leader has to have. Visionary leadership is persuading the
communities and formuizing the targets. Enterprises today, can not brand , grown and carry
on without having a vision. In the organizations which aim continious development and
continious learning, it will be easier to carry the enterprise to the future and to show visionary
leadership qualifications if they achieve to become open to changes and should be in
interaction with the others and if they should be a living organization. At the end of the study,
by making a multiple regression analysis, a positive relationship has been found between
learning organisation dimensions; (continious learning, dialog and research, learning as a
team, sharing systems, empowered employees,connection between systems and supporting
192

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

leadership) and
visionary leadership dimensions(planning, visionary organizational
leadership, visionary creative leadership)

Keywords: Learning organizations, Vision, Visionary Leadership, Living Organism, Future.

1.INTRODUCTION
Peter Senge argues that learning organizations require a new view of leadership. He
sees the traditional view of leaders (as special people who set the direction, make key
decisions and energize the troops as deriving from a deeply individualistic and non-systemic
worldview (1990: 340). At its centre the traditional view of leadership, ‘is based on
assumptions of people’s powerlessness, their lack of personal vision and inability to master
the forces of change, deficits which can be remedied only by a few great leaders’ (op. cit.).
Against this traditional view he sets a ‘new’ view of leadership that centres on ‘subtler and
more important tasks’. In a learning organization, leaders are designers, stewards and
teachers. They are responsible for building organizations were people continually expand
their capabilities to understand complexity, clarify vision, and improve shared mental models
– that is they are responsible for learning…. Learning organizations will remain a ‘good
idea’… until people take a stand for building such organizations. Taking this stand is the first
leadership act, the start of inspiring (literally ‘to breathe life into’) the vision of the learning
organization. “Leader as teacher” is not about “teaching” people how to achieve their vision.
It is about fostering learning, for everyone. Such leaders help people throughout the
organization develop systemic understandings. Accepting this responsibility is the antidote to
one of the most common downfalls of otherwise gifted teachers – losing their commitment to
the truth. Learning organizations demand a new view of leadership, leader as designer
(Senge 1990: 356). Culture begins with leadership, but because culture is the result of a
group’s accumulated learning the culture itself will later define the wanted leadership
(Schein,2004). To be a LO has no value in itself, it must always serve the broader aims of the
organization (Jensen,2005). A Learning Organization has a design and a culture which takes
into account the needs of the individuals in the organization (Kline and Saunders,1993) and
in a LO members know why. In other organizations they know how (Jensen,2005).

2. Conceptual Analysis Of Learning Organizations

According to Peter Senge (1990: 3) learning organizations are: …organizations where
people continually expand their capacity to create the results they truly desire, where new and
expansive patterns of thinking are nurtured, where collective aspiration is set free, and where
people are continually learning to see the whole together.
Organizations learn. Just like individual people, organizations sense circumstances
within their environment and they respond. They observe the results of their responses and
193

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

remember the results, along with information gathered from other sources, for reference in
designing future responses. This process of sensing, responding, and observing/remembering
goes largely unnoticed by the individuals working within the organization due to the
complexity of the "anatomy" of organizations. But consciously or not, effectively or not, all
organizations are doing these activities over and over. In studying the concept of learning
organizations we seek the tools and methodologies that will help an organization learn
consciously and proactively in pursuit of its goals. In a learning organization, our purpose for
dialogue is to let the meaning of our words permeate through the group, or, to develop fully
shared, even synergistic understanding of important information, experiences, goals, etc.
among all the people involved (Agarval, 1999).

3. Conceptual Analysis Of Visionary Leadership

Visionary leadership refers to the capacity to create and communicate a view of a
desired state of affairs that clarifies the current situation and induces commitment to an even
better future. A visionary leader as one who “established goals and objectives for individual
and group action, which define not what we are but rather what we seek to be or do”
(Colton:1985). The visionary leader inspires, challenges, guides, and empowers. This
articulated link between dreams and action, between vision and leadership, is well
documented in the literature. Bennis and Nanus (1985) claimed that a compelling vision is
key to effective leadership in excellent organizations. The visionary leader is not a mystical
person somehow connected to intelligences or powers beyond what others know. The
visionary leader is one who can clearly articulate what is and what ought to be. But the
person who can only articulate a set of descriptors of what ought to be is like the person who
accurately predicts rain but cannot envision the need to build an ark. The visionary leader in
action has the necessary skills and knowledge to build a new reality (Brown, Anfara, 2003).

4.Method And Sampling

The data were collected through a questionnaire based on literature. It was conducted totally
124 officers who work in different departments of Altıntaş District Governership. Learning
Organisation Dimensions' Questionnaire was developed by AnketiWatkins ve Marsick (1997)
and the reliability of the questionnaire was tested. Seven dimensions of the Learning
Organisation Dimensions Questionnaire are continious learning, dialog and research, learning
as a team, sharing systems, empowered employees,connection between systems and
supporting leadership. (Basım ve Şeşen, 2007; Basım vd., 2007). In Visionary Leadership
Questionnaire, the phd thesis of Garry Forrest (2001), named “Investigation of the
Relationship Among Leaders’ Responses on Four Leadership Inventories” was used by
adapting into Turkish. (Öztürk, 2009). Dimensions, planning, motive of succeeding,
194

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

leadership of organizational, risk management, utilizing the opportunities, creative leadership
and motivation.

4.1. Hypotheses Of The Research
4.1.1.The hypotheses of the research are as the following;

H1: There is a statistically significant relationship between the participants’ (officers)
viewpoints about ''planning in visionary leadership'' and some learning organisation's
dimensions; ''dialog and research'', ''learning as a team'', ''sharing systems'', ''empowered
employees'','' connections between systems'' and ''supporting leadership'' .

H2: There is a statistically significant relationship between the participants’ (officers)
viewpoints about visionary organizational leadership'' and some learning organization’s
dimensions; ''dialog and research'', ''learning as a team'', ''sharing systems'', ''empowered
employees'','' connections between systems'' and ''supporting leadership''

H3: There is a statistically significant relationship between the participants’ (officers)
viewpoints about visionary creative leadership'' and some learning organisation's dimensions;
''dialog and research'', ''learning as a team'', ''sharing systems'', ''empowered employees'',''
connections between systems'' and ''supporting leadership''

5. Sampling &amp; Data Collection Tools

The sampling was composed of 124 officers(sivil servants) employed at different
departments of Altıntaş District Governership.

5.1. Reliability of the Questionnaire

In order to test reliability of the questionnaire, a pre-study was conducted. As a result of the
analysis conducted to test consistency and reliability of 43 questions about Learning
oarganisation, (N of items= 43), the Likert type questionnaire data was found to have
Cronbach Alpha value of 0,95, which is very close to 1.00. This showed that the questions
about Learning Organisation were reliable and could be used in the research. As a result of
the analysis conducted to test consistency and reliability of 28 questions about Visionary
Leadership (N of items= 28), the Likert type questionnaire data was found to have Cronbach

195

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

Alpha value of 0,80, which is very close to 1.00. This showed that the questions about
Visionary Leadership were reliable and could be used in the research.

5.2. Demographical Characteristics of the Subjects

Shows demographic features of the subjects: Age Distribution: 20-25 Yaş %14,5; 25-30 age
%36,5 ;30-35 age %16,5; 35-40 age %14,5 ; 40-45 age %8,9 ; Over 45 %13,7 Marital Status
Distribution Married 92 - % 74,2 ; Single 32 - %25,8 Distribution According To Position
Officer 47 - %37,9 , Office Boy 2 - %1,6 ;Teacher 50 - %40,3;Policeman 2 - %1,6; Sağlıkçı
5 - % 4 ;Health Worker 18 - %14,5. Distribution Accoding To Departments Land Registry 5 %4; Education 67 - %54; Governorship 15 - %14,1 ; Health 1 - %13,7; Forestry 13 %10,5; Treasury 7 - %5,6. Working Time Distribution 1-5 Years 77 %62,1 ; 5-10 Years 25
%20,2 ; 10-15 Years 10 %8,1 ; 15-20 Years 1 %8 ; Over 20 Years 11 %8,9 Distribution
Of Education Level High School 24 - %19,4 ; University 99 - %79,8 ; Masters Degree 1 %0,8
1. Multiple Regression Analysis between ''Planning In Visionary Leadership'' and ''Learning
Organisation's Dimensions''
2
R

= 41

2
Adjusted

R

=38

F=13,558

P Value=,000

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

 Parameter

t Value

P Value

DIALOG AND RESEARCH

,026

,234

,815

LEARNING AS A TEAM

1,128

1,104

,272

SHARING SYSTEMS

,-200

-1,770

1,079

EMPOWERED EMPLOYEES

,-087

,759

1,450

CONNECTIONS BETWEEN SYSTEMS

,500

3,713

,000

SUPPORTING LEADERSHIP

,274

2,446

,016

The sub-dimensions of Learning Organisation; dialog and research, learning as a team,
sharing systems, empowered employees, connection between systems and supporting
leadership , can explain %38 of the total variance of the viewpoints about ''Planning in
Visionary Leadership''.
2. Multiple Regression Analysis between Visionary Organisational Leadership'' and ''Learning
Organisation's Dimensions''

2
R =

79,3

Adjusted

F=33,037

P Value =,000

 Parameter

t

DIALOG AND RESEARCH

,-033

,-371

,711

LEARNING AS A TEAM

,072

,778

,438

SHARING SYSTEMS

,014

,154

,878

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

196

2
R =61

t Value

P

Value

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

EMPOWERED EMPLOYEES

,058

,637

,526

CONNECTIONS BETWEEN SYSTEMS

,373

3,496

,001

SUPPORTING LEADERSHIP

,388

4,359

,000

The sub-dimensions of Learning Organisation; dialog and research, learning as a team,
sharing systems, empowered employees, connection between systems and supporting
leadership , can explain %61 of the total variance of the viewpoints about '' Visionary
Organisational Leadership''
3. Multiple Regression Analysis between ''Visionary Creative Leadership'' and
''Learning Organisation's Dimensions''

2
R =

48,6

2
Adjusted

R

=46

F=18,459

P Value=,000

 Parameter

t Value

P Value

DIALOG AND RESEARCH

,-010

,-093

,926

LEARNING AS A TEAM

,-117

1,079

,283

SHARING SYSTEMS

,010

,099

,922

EMPOWERED EMPLOYEES

,019

,177

,860

CONNECTIONS BETWEEN SYSTEMS

,207

1,645

,103

SUPPORTING LEADERSHIP

,433

4,135

,000

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

The sub-dimensions of Learning Organisation; dialog and research, learning as a team,
sharing systems, empowered employees, connection between systems and supporting
leadership , can explain 46 % of the total variance of the viewpoints about '' Visionary
Creative Leadership''

6.CONCLUSION
After making a multiple regression analysis, there is a statisticallay significant relationship
between visionary leadership and learning organisation's dimensions. In the future, the most
successful people and the institutions will be the one, which learn easily and fast learn.
Today, they have knowledge and experience, but it wll not be enough in the future.
Information and technology are developing and the only way to gain speed is to identify the
learning needs and then, try to achieve effective learning. (Braham, 1998: 13-14).
Developing learning structure and capacity, and to keep up with fast imrovements and
innovations will be the main qualifications of the successful organisations. An executive, who
has visionary and innovative approach must have a qualification in reading different
developments and cases different from the others. In learning organisations which have this
197

�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo

qualifications, it will be easier to show vision development and visionary leadership
qualifications.
REFERENCES
Agarwal A. (1999) “Learning Organization” www.hrfolks.com
Bennis, W. And Nanus, B. (1985). Leaders: The strategies for taking charge. New York:
Harper &amp; Row.

Braham, Barbara J. (1998), A Learning Organizations Creative, Rota Press, İstanbul.

Brown K. M. and Anfara V. A. (2003) “Paving the Way for Change: Visionary Leadership
in Action at the Middle Level” Jr. NASSP Bulletin ,Vol. 87 No. 635 June ,p. 16-34.

Colton, D. L. (1985) “Vision” National Forum, 65(2), 33–35.

Davenport T.H. and Prusak L. (1998) Working Knowledge. Harvard Business School Press
Boston.
Jensen P.E.(2005) “A Contextual Theory of Learning and the Learning Organization”
Knowledge and Process Management”, Vol.12, No.1, 53-64.

Kline P. And Saunders B. (1993) Ten steps to a learning organization. Library of Congress
Cataloging in Publication Data 1993, ISBN: 0-915556-24-3.

Oztürk E. (2009) “Visionary Leadership Characteristics Of School Administrators”
Academic
dissertation, Çanakkale.

Senge P.M. (1990) The Fifth Discipline The Art &amp; Practice of The Learning Organization.
Currence Doubleday, 1990, ISBN: 0-385-26095-4

Schein E.H. (2004) Organizational culture and Leadership. (3rd edition) John Wiley &amp; Sons,
Inc., 2004, ISBN: 0-7879-6845-5.

Schultz, J. R. (1999) “Peter Senge: Master of Change” Executive Update Online,
http://www.gwsae.org/ExecutiveUpdate/1999/June_July/CoverStory2.htm
198

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                <text>Kemal, Demirci</text>
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                <text>EINSTEIN, has seen the future dream and information power, then performed his genius  by dreaming. To dream the aimed future and to focus on, to endeavour on targets, to build a  ''vision'' are the powers which a leader has to have. Visionary leadership is persuading the  communities and formuizing the targets. Enterprises today, can not brand , grown and carry  on without having a vision. In the organizations which aim continious development and  continious learning, it will be easier to carry the enterprise to the future and to show visionary  leadership qualifications if they achieve to become open to changes and should be in  interaction with the others and if they should be a living organization. At the end of the study,  by making a multiple regression analysis, a positive relationship has been found between  learning organisation dimensions; (continious learning, dialog and research, learning as a  team, sharing systems, empowered employees,connection between systems and supporting leadership) and visionary leadership dimensions(planning, visionary organizational  leadership, visionary creative leadership)  Keywords: Learning organizations, Vision, Visionary Leadership, Living Organism, Future.</text>
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                    <text>An Empirical On Knowledge Sharing In Learning Organizations In Kutahya, Turkey
Kemal Demirci1, Nuray Mercan1, Yaşar Aksanyar1, Bayram Alamur2, Vasfi Kahya3
1Dumlupınar University Instıtute of Social Sciences, Kütahya, Turkey,
2Balikesir University Havran Vocational School Of Higher Education,
3Dumlupinar University Instıtute of Social Sciences, Kütahya, Turkey
E –mails: mkdemirci26@hotmail.com, snmmercan@yahoo.com, ayyasari@gmail.com,
alamur_bayram@hotmail.com, vasfikahya@hotmail.com
Abstract
Comunities today and in the future have to process, evaluate and internalize the information
more than past. Comunities and enterprises, which don't understand the environment, and are
unconscious about changes, and which don't read the world, are obliged to deteriorate, even
to die. Fiber speed and continious changes of present world, makes compulsory to learn
continiously and to educe information. Enterprises have to be open to continiously learning to
carry on their growth and development and they have to gain capability to share
knowledge.This paper undertakes to contribute to this search by addressing some
fundamental questions about the nature, domain, conceptual foundations, and practical
challenges of knowledge management and organizational learning. A positive relationship
has been found between continiously learning which are learner dimensions of organization,
dialog and research, team learning, sharing systems, empowered workers, connection
between the systems, sharing information of supportive leadership and openness of in-house
cognitive canals through the correlation and multiple regression analysis done in the result of
the research.
Keywords: Knowledge Management, Knowledge Share, learning organization.
1.INTRODUCTION
The term organizational learning may refer to individual learning within the organization, the
entire organization learning as a collective body, oranywhere in between these extremes.
However, most organizational learning refers to team ororganizational level learning. Of
404

�course, individual learning, or learning in small or large groupsor as an entire organization
may be needed for the firm to possess the requisite knowledge totake effective action. From a
knowledge management perspective, all levels of learning areimportant and all must be
nurtured and made a natural part of culture. To date, most of the knowledge management
emphasis has been put on locating, creating and sharing knowledge. For this reason, we
consider or ganizational learning to refer to the capacity of the organization to acquire the
knowledge necessary to survive and compete in its environment. (Bennet and Bennet, 2006:
1-3).
Knowledge sharing in an organization is an important issue. Because knowledge is
considered as being the source of organizational competitive and a kind of strategic capital in
an information economy, the more the knowledge is expanded in an organization, the more
the capacity of competition is (Yaghi Et Al, 2011:20).
Knowledge sharing can be defined as transferring knowledge from one place or one person to
another (Sharrat and Usoro, 2003:4-5). It is possible to define knowledge sharing basically as
making knowledge useable for the individuals in an organization. In other words, knowledge
sharing is a process of bartering knowledge with other individuals so that they can
understand, claim and use it (Ipe, 2003:341); knowledge sharing is that employees share their
knowledge, thoughts, suggestions and experience in their organization with others (Bartol
and Srivastava, 2002:65).
The first section of the paper considers conseptual analysis of knowledge sharing.In the
second section, we will try to explain conceptual analysis of learning organization. In the
third section, the results and the findings of the study will be evaluate, in the conclusion
section, the importance of knowledge sharing in learning organizations will be evaluate by
using the findings.
2.Conseptual analysis of knowledge sharing
Knowledge sharing is a social mutual interactive culture and involves knowledge, skill and
experience exchange of employees in an organization. For an organization, knowledge
sharing is capturing knowledge based on experience, organizing it, making it reusable and
transferring it; it depends on making knowledge available for others in an organization or a
business. Many studies have shown that knowledge sharing is compulsory because it allows
organizations to increase their innovation performance and to decrease unnecessary learning
efforts (Lin, 2007:315-316).
405

�Knowledge is about knowledge exchange between two individuals. It can also be expressed
as “willingness of individuals in an organization to share their knowledge with others” (Mc
Neish and Mann, 2010:19-20). Sharing knowledge also allows administrators and employees
keep what they know and to practice it (Yang, 2007:84). The aim of sharing knowledge is
either to create new knowledge out of existing knowledge or to improve it (Christensen,
2007:37).
Knowledge sharing is thought as a social behaviour and many physical, technological,
psychological, cultural and personal factors have effective roles in not only supporting but
also limiting knowledge sharing. Despite many advantages of knowledge sharing, researchers
and implementers often argue that in many cases, in fact, individuals abstain from sharing
their knowledge with others (Davenport, 2007); moreover, they say that act of sharing
knowledge is unnatural and there are many reasons for people to abstain from sharing their
knowledge with others. Some of what obstruct sharing knowledge between colleagues are the
following factors: the relations between the source of knowledge and the receiver of the
knowledge aren’t extensive, according to Smith and McKeen (2003) rewards and motivation
aren’t enough for sharing, according to Ikhsan and Ronald (2004) time is insufficient, and
knowledge sharing culture is lacking. Furthermore, inadequacy in understanding what to
share with whom, limited appreciation of sharing knowledge and fear of acquiring false
knowledge may also hinder knowledge sharing acts (Cited in Majid and Wey, 2009:22).
2.1. Conseptual analysis of learning organizations
Organizational learning can be said to occur when there is a change in the
content,conditionality, or degree of belief of the beliefs shared by individuals who jointly act
on those beliefs within an organization knowledge can be articulated and codifiedto create
organizational knowledge assets. Knowledge can be disseminated (using information
technologies)in the formof documents, drawings, best practicemodels, etc.Learning processes
can be designed toremedy knowledge deficienciesthrough structured, managed, scientific
processes (Sanchez, 2005: 3).
Organizational learning requires a sharing of language, meaning, objectives and standards
that are significantly different from individual learning. When the organization learns, it
generates a social synergy that creates knowledge, adding value to the firm’s knowledge
workersand to its overall performance. When such a capability becomes embedded within
theorganization’s culture, the organization may have what is called a core competency. These
areusually unique to each organization and can rarely be replicated by other firms. The
406

�knowledge behind a core competency is built up over time through experiences and successes
and rests morein the relationships and spirit among the knowledge workers that is the sum of
each workers knowledge (Bennet and Bennet, 2006: 1-3).
3.Research Method and Sample
The “Questionnaire of Learning Organizations’ Dimensions” which we referred to was
devbeloped by Watkins and Marsick (1997). The reliability and the validity of the
questionnare, learning continuum, dialog and research, learning as a team, sharing system,
connections between systems, empowered employees, supporting leadership.
The data were collected through a questionnaire based on literature. Surveys of Chow, Deng
and Ho (2000) were utilized in evaluating the employees' knowledge sharing. There were 24
questions by Chow, Deng and Ho (2000) in the questionnaire: 5 about the perspectives of the
employees about knowledge, 5 about the cases requiring knowledge sharing, 9 about the
cases obstructing knowledge sharing and 5 about the elements of knowledge sharing that is
the basic variable of intellectual capital.
This research was conducted by questionnaire method to totally 124 people who work in
different segments of Altintas District Governorship.
3.1. Demographical Characteristics of the Subjects
Shows demographic features of the subjects: Age Distribution: 20-25 Yaş %14,5; 25-30 age
%36,5 ;30-35 age %16,5; 35-40 age %14,5 ; 40-45 age %8,9 ; Over 45 %13,7 Marital Status
Distribution Married 92 - % 74,2 ; Single 32 - %25,8 Distribution According To Position
Officer 47 - %37,9 , Office Boy 2 - %1,6 ;Teacher 50 - %40,3;Policeman 2 - %1,6; Sağlıkçı
5 - % 4 ;Health Worker 18 - %14,5. Distribution Accoding To Departments Land Registry 5 %4; Education 67 - %54; Governorship 15 - %14,1 ; Health 1 - %13,7; Forestry 13 %10,5; Treasury 7 - %5,6. Working Time Distribution 1-5 Years 77 %62,1 ; 5-10 Years 25
%20,2 ; 10-15 Years 10 %8,1 ; 15-20 Years 1 %8 ; Over 20 Years 11 %8,9 Distribution
Of Education Level High School 24 - %19,4 ; University 99 - %79,8 ; Masters Degree 1 %0,8
4.Research Hyphothesis
The hypothesis can be said like this;
H1:There is a statistically significant correlation between the participants’ (officers’)
viewpoints about sub-dimension of learning organization; knowledge management, dialog
407

�and research, learning as a team, sharing systems,empowered employees, connections
between systems and supporter leadership.
H2:There is a statistically significant correlation between the participants’ (officers’)
viewpoints about openness of the internal channel and learning organizations, dialog and
research, learning as a team, sharing systems, empowered employees, connections between
systems and supporter leadership.
4.1.Findings and analysis
4.1.1. Reliability of the Questionnaire
In order to testthe reliability of questionnaire after analyzing the findings the Likert type data
of the questionnaire, Cronbach’s Alpha value was found as 0,95. Some 28 questions which
take part in the questionnaire were analysed to test reliability and Cronbach’s Alpha value of
Likert type questionnaire findings was found as 0,80.
1. Analysis of correlations between sub-dimensions of sharing information and learning
organizations

SITUATIONS

Pearson
Correlatio
n

DIALOG

TEAM

SHARING

,536**

,424**

,387**

,000

,000

,459**

,000

EMPOWERING

SYSTEM

SUPPORT

,388**

,405**

,360**

000

000

000

000

,442**

,374**

,407**

,428**

,349**

,000

,000

,000

,000

,000

REQUIRING
THE
SHARING INFO

OPENNESS
of IN-HOUSE
COGNITIVE
CANALS

Sig. (2tailed)
Pearson
Correlatio
n

Sig. (2tailed

**İlişki 0,01 düzeyinde anlamlıdır (çift yönlü) Relationship is significant at the 0,01 level.
(two ways)
408

�In the result of correlation analysis, at the 0,01 significance level situations requaring the
sharing info and relationship in a positive way have been observed between dialog and
research team learning, sharing systems, empowered workers, connection between the
systems, sharing information of supportive leadership and openness of in-house cognitive
canals which are dimensions of sharing information.
2. Multiple regression analysis between learner dimensions of organization and sharing
information
2
R

= 30,1 ADJUSTED

2
R

=25,9

F=7,150

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

P VALUE =,000



P VALUE

t VALUE

PARAMETER

-,038

-,377

,707

DIALOG

,458

3,523

,001

TEAM

,044

,333

,739

-,030

-,244

,808

EMPOWERING

,018

,144

,886

SYSTEM

,087

,589

,557

SUPPORT

,049

,400

,690

CONTINUOUSNESS

SHARING

.
Continiously learning which are learner dimensions of organization, dialog and research,
team learning, sharing systems, empowered workers, connection between the systems and
sharing information of supportive leadership explains 25,9 % part of total variance of sharing
info perceptions.
3. Multiple regression analysis between learner dimensions of organization and openness of inhouse cognitive canals

2
R =

27,1

ADJUSTED

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

2
R =22,1

F=6,167



P VALUE =,000

t VALUE

P VALUE

PARAMETER

-,127

-1,233

,220

TEAM

,284

2,140

,034

SHARING

,211

1,564

,120

-,043

-,342

,733

SYSTEM

,049

,386

,700

SUPPORT

,176

1,165

,246

DIALOG

EMPOWERING

409

�Dialog and research which are learner dimensions of organization, team learning,
sharing systems, empowered workers, connection between the systems and sharing
information of supportive leadership explains 22,1 % part of total variance of
openness of in-house cognitive canals of perceptions.

5. CONCLUSION
Named as a knowledge era and since 1990 and onwards which are the beginning of
the new era it has been observed that many academic studies on knowledge management and
knowledge sharing and also it is thought that this interest will become more dense in the
following years. At the end of the study, a positive relationship has been found in the
correlation analysis and regression analysis between learner organization and sharing
information. Knowledge management has been influential both reaching the individual aims
and organizational aims and targets by catalyzing.Today, knowledge society has become an
economical system with new occupational structures, new production relationships and social
structures in which knowledge is produced densely. In the knowledge society, the main
motivation factor which leads the individuals and entrepreneurs to produce knowledge is to
desire self realization. The race to success, as a success competition, it makes feel not only in
local level but also in global level. Knowledge management- in learner organizations- is to
provide a common language which will reflect the organization’s own identity for reaching
the aims of organizations, adopting sharing vision which is desired to be composed, and
abolishing the resistance against wanting to apply to administrative approaches. (Karahan and
Yılmaz,2010).
REFERENCES
Bennet A. and Bennet D. (2003) The partnership between organizational learning and
knowledge management. In Handbook on Knowledge Management (HOSAPPLE CW, Ed),
Vol. 1, pp 439–455, Springer, New York.
Ipe M. (2003). ‘Knowledge Sharing On Organizations: A Conceptual Framework’, Human
Resource Development Review. Thousand Oaks: Dec. Vol:2, Iss.4.
Bartol M. K. And Srıvastava A. (2002) “Motivation and Barriers to Participation in Virtual
Knowledge-Sharing Comminities of Practice”, Journal of Leadership and Organization
Studies, Vol.9, No.1, pp.64-75.

410

�Chow C.W. Deng F. J. Ho J.L. (2000) “The Openness of Knowledge Sharing Within
Organizations: A Comparative Study in The United States And The People's Republic Of
China”, Journal of Management Accounting Research; Vol.12, pp.65-95.
Chrıstensen H. P. (2007) “Knowledge Sharing: moving away from the obsession with best
practices”, Journal of Management, Vol.11, No.1. pp.36-47.
Karahan A.and Yılmaz H. (2010) “Learning Organizations and Knowledge Management”
Osmangazi University Instıtute of Social Sciences Review, Nisan 2010, 5(1), s.147-174
Lin H.F. (2007) Knowledge Sharing and Firm Innovation Capability: An Emprical Study,
International Journal of Manpower, Vol.28, No:3/4, pp. 315-332.
Majid S. and Wey S. M. (2009) Perceptions And Knowledge Sharing Practices Of Graduate
Students In Singapore, International Journal of Knowledge Management, 5(2),pp. 21-32.
Mc Neısh J. and Inder J. S. M. (2010) “Knowledge Sharing and Trust in Organizations”, The
20 IUP Journal of Knowledge Management, Vol. VIII, Nos. 1 &amp; 2, pp.18-38.
Sanchez R. (2005) “ Knowledge Management and Organizational Learning: Fundamental
Concepts for Theory and Practice” Lund Institute of Economic Research Working Paper
Series
Sharrat M. and Usoro A. (2003), ‘Understanding Knowledge-Sharing in Online Communities
of Practice’, Journal of Knowledge Management, Vol: 1, Issue: 2, Dec., pp. 4-5.
Yaghi B. And Alfawaer S. N. (2011) Knowledge-sharing degree among the undergraduate
students: A case study at applied science private university - Middle East University for
graduate studies, Amman (JORDAN)
Yang J.T. (2007) The Impact of Knowledge Sharing on Organizational learning and
Effectiveness, Journal of Knowledge Management, Vol.11, No:2, pp.83-90.

411

�Watkıns K. And Marsick
V. (1997) Dimensions of The Learning Organization
Questionnaire [survey] (Warwick, RI: Partners for the Learning Organization)

Civil Law Notaries in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Actors in Preventive Justice
Bakšić Šukrija1, Oruč Esad2
1University of Zenica, Faculty of Law, Zenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
2International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
E –mails: sukrijabaksic@gmail.com,eoruc@ibu.edu.ba
Abstract
Civil law notaries are professional lawyers and public officials appointed by the State to
confer authenticity on legal deeds and contracts contained in documents drafted by them and
to advise persons who call upon their services. Institution of the notary was introduced for the
first time in the legal system of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2007. Introduction of the office
of notary was one of the steps taken to ensure independent and impartial judiciary and to
adapt legal system with European Union law. Before its introducing there was no institution
or legal profession which acted impartially on behalf of all parties to a contract or transaction.
Notarial services are very wide and complex. It encompasses all judicial activities in noncontentious matters, ensure legal certainty to clients, thus averting disputes and litigation. As
a guarantor of legal certainty, notary is one of the most important actors of preventive justice
which include all means of reducing resort to the courts for the settlement of controversies.
In this study we analyzed contribution of notary office to preventive justice in Bosnia and
Herzegovina.
Keywords: civil law notary, preventive justice, legal certainty, realising justice, avoiding
disputes

412

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