134 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/dbec47e91947a8ec39934c7c24716104.pdf 26b3a4f3bba82f9c44175632ebb5442f PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Effect Of Openness On Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Mehmet Mercan1,İsmet Göçer2, Şahin Bulut2, Metin Dam2 1Hakkari University, FEAS, Department of Economy, 2Adnan Menderes University, FEAS, Department of Economy, E-mails:mercan48@gmail.com,ismetgocer@gmail.com,sbulut@adu.edu.tr,mdam@adu.edu.tr Abstract In this study, the effect of openness on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. As openness variable, the proportion of external trade scale to GDP was used. According to empirical evidence derived from the study made with panel data analysis it was found that the effect of openness on economic growth was positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations. Keywords:Trade Openness, Economic Growth, BRIC Countries, Turkey. Jel Codes: E41, F43, G53 1.INTRODUCTION In our globalized world whether there is a relationship between trade openness and economic growth and openness is useful for the economy of the countries or not is still a matter in arguement. On one hand by trying to decrease the quotas and tariffs through GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade ),UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) which was established to liberalize the trade between countries and WTO (World Trade Organization) which was established instead of GATT in 1995 , increasing the openness of the countries to the world trade is aimed,on the other hand countries impose restrictions in the world trade by increasing the invisible barrier both to protect the domestic industries and to get income. With non-functioning of the national development thesis through the late and the collapse of the Eastern Block at the end of 1980’s it was again started to argue that openness was necessary for the national economies. In this context some economists expressed that having a certain development level was a precondition for openness policies to support the growth while operating the growth models based on openness and export. (Han and Kaya, 2006: 245; Sun and Parikh, 2001: 187-188).There are classical economists on the basis of the view that capital movement liberalization and trade openness will increase the economic growth and welfare after 1980’s.According to Classical and Neoclassical economists foreign trade makes important contributions to the development and the foreign trade is not only an effective productivity instrument but also it is the engine of the growth.Since the sources are limited in developing countries, the production on the scale of a high and sustainable growth can not be performed and new sources can be needed for production.With the openness, domestic markets will encounter with the competition, the domestic industries which can not compete with international prices will transfer their production factor to the other productive factors 159 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo and the welfare increase will happen as a result of more effective allocation of the sources.So for this type of economies it will be useful to make production under free trade.The precondition of providing growth under free trade is to apply a foreign trade policy which the national economies may combine with the international structure and to direct the allocation of the sources for pruduction to the sectors determined by the international demand.The natural aim of this type of economy is the industrilization and the availibility of the growth and it is suggested that the required dynamism for this will be realized by a structuring coming from external demand rather than domestic demand (Çelebi, 1991: 33). Against the liberal understanding of some classical economists , some economists defended the import substitution and drew attention to the importance of protectionism for industrialization. (Bahmani, Oskooee, Niromand, 1999, s.1).He suggested that free trade would not contribute to the growth among the countries that their development levels were different, but it would be useful among the countries that their development levels are the same.For instance,in England where the Industrial Revolution began first and in many of the other countries that were trying to reach England’s development level he expressed that free trade is on behalf of England and less developed countries were negatively affected for foreign trade relatively. (Chang, 2004: 20). Openness was modelled with the New Growth Theories suggested in 1980’s and it was started to be tested ampirically.Internal growth theoriessuppose (varsayar) that trade openness will stimulate the new technologies input. (Harrison, 1996).No matter how the economy is open, technology input increases,technology usage becomes wide and a more rapid growth realizes as compared to a less open economy. (Wu, 2004, s. 1).Internal growth models mentioning the importance of technological diffusion as the source of growth in long period generally suggest the thesis that the countries that are open to the foreign trade will reach higher stiff growth rates(Grossman ve Helpman, 1990: 796).So Romer(1986) and Lucas (1998) expressed that the size of the openness in a country was proportional with the ability of adaptation to the new and imported technologies and the ability of the arrangement in production. In the studies so far about the effect of the trade openness on economic growth it is difficult to say that there is a consensus.Besides Romer (1986) and Lucas (1988) in the context of internal growth theories, while Dollar (1992), Barro and Sala-i Martin (1995), Sachs andWarner (1995), Sinha and Sinha (1996), Edwards (1992, 1998) asserted that the effect of the trade openness on economic growth was positive,Levine and Renelt (1992), Harrison (1996), Rodrigez and Rodrik (1999) claimed the opposite of this idea. Shortly called as BRIC firstly in the early 2000s Brazil,Russia,India and China that have common characters like wide area, big population and rapid economic growth are accepted as the fastest growing “emerging market” in world economy (O’Neill, 2001:1-16). Total area of these countries contains more than %25 of the world area and total population of them contains more than %40 of the world population. It is argued that BRIC group would take G7 group’s place and get the leadership of the world economy when the economic indicators are considered(Frank and Frank, 2010:46-54).Goldman Sachs who has studies about BRIC countries estimates that in 2050 China will be the greatest economy in the world,India will be the third,Brazil will be the fourth and Russia will be the sixth biggest economy.Based on these indicators, in our study the effect of openness on economic growth will be searched for BRIC countries and Türkiye that is the most devoloping country than after China and has a developing economy. 160 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.Openness The openness rate of a country is generally calculated as the proportion of foreign trade volume to GDP besides the usage of the proportion of import to GDP (Romer (1993)) and the rate of export increase (Chow (1987), Kwan and Cotsomitis (1991))(Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand (1999), Ahmad and Anoruo (2000), Dar and Amirkhalkhali (2003)).Openness also indicates the dependence of the country on the foreign trade.The size of openness rates indicates the importance level of the foreign trade for economy of the country.With the trade openness of the country , an increase can be seen in foreign Exchange incomes and expenses at the export and import volume increase results. The share of foreign trade in GDP will increase with the foreign trade volume increase. In Figure 1 trade openness rates of BRIC-T countries are presented. Figure 1. BRIC-T Countries Trade Openness Rates Source:It was formed by the writers using the World Bank data As can be followed from Figure 1, in all BRIC-T countries called as emerging markets since 1990’s we see a stiff openness rates and the share of foreign trade increases. It has been observed that openness rate is about 0,5 in recent years,so foreign trade volumes of the countries have reached to nearly half of their GDP.Also in Figure 2the growth rate ofBRIC-T countries are presented. 161 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure2. BRIC-T Countries Growth Rates Source:It was formed by the writers using the World Bank data As can be followed from Figure 2, we see that the growth rates of the related countries are closs to each other and the countries were nagatively affected from the global economic crisis in 2008 and the Asia crisis in 1997.The striking point in Figure 2 is China and India’s positive growth throughout the whole periods.Also we see that Russia and Turkey are the most affected countries from the global crisis in 2008.In Table 1 economic size of BRIC-T countries are presented. Table 1.Economic Sizes of the Selected Countries(Billion $) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 BRA 645 554 504 552 664 882 1.089 1.366 1.653 1.594 2.088 CHN 1.198 1.325 1.454 1.641 1.932 2.257 2.713 3.494 4.522 4.991 5.927 IND 460 478 507 599 722 834 951 1.242 1.216 1.377 1.727 RUS 260 307 345 430 591 764 990 1.300 1.661 1.222 1.480 TUR BRIC-T WORLD 267 2.830 32.240 196 2.859 32.046 233 3.043 33.305 303 3.526 37.466 392 4.300 42.229 483 5.220 45.658 531 6.274 49.506 647 8.049 55.849 730 9.782 61.305 615 9.800 58.088 734 11.956 63.124 OECD 26.162 25.917 27.085 30.422 33.873 35.749 37.744 41.346 43.816 41.036 42.809 AB 8.477 8.579 9.362 11.409 13.172 13.749 14.665 16.957 18.252 16.310 16.223 Source:It was formed by the writers using the World Bank data As can be followed from Table 1, the GDP of the studied 5 countries in 2010 is totally 11,956 Billion$. This value corresponds to the % 71 of European Unity GDP, % 28 of OECD countries GDP and % 19 of world countries total GDP. In 2000 while BRIC-T countriestotal GDP corresponds to % 8 of world countries total GDP, the increase of this rate to % 19 in 2010 is a significant evidence to be noticed. As can be followed from Table 1, the GDP of the studied 5 countries in 2010 is totally 11,956 Billion$. This value corresponds to the % 71 of European Unity GDP, % 28 of OECD 162 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo countries GDP and % 19 of world countries total GDP. In 2000 while BRIC-T countriestotal GDP corresponds to % 8 of world countries total GDP, the increase of this rate to % 19 in 2010 is a significant evidence to be noticed. 3. Openness and Growth : Literature Scan The studies searching the relationship between trade openness and economic growth, country groups, the used methods and results are presented in Table 2. As can be followed from Table 2 the view that openness affects the economic growth positively is generally supported in the studies and the importance of growth based on export is emphasized. Table 2: Abstract of Some Theoric and Ampirical Studies Searching the Openness and Economic Growth Relationship Writers Sampling and Used Econometric Method Edwards (1998) 93 countries study Method of Least Squares He found that total factor productivity increased more rapidly in the country that are more open. Bahmani-Oskooee and Niroomand (1999) Ahmad and Anoruo (2000) For 59 countries 1960-92 Period Johansen cointegrationmethod They found that there was a positive relationship between openness and growth in 19 countries that has cointegration relations. They indicated that openness and growth variables were cointegrated,and also they expressed that there was a two-sided causality relationship between openness and growth in error correction model. Study results supports the export-oriented growth hypothesis. They expressed that export and foreign capital inputs have significant and positive effects on economic growth. Ahmad (2001) Sun and Parikh (2001) Vamvakidis (2002) Jin (2003) Wu (2004) Kaplan (2004) Utkulu and Kahyaoğlu (2005) Yapraklı (2007) Kurt and Berber (2008) For 5 countries1960-97 period Johansen cointegrationmethod Developed and developing countries, Engle-Granger and VAR model 29 region of China(1985-1995) Panel Data Analysis Regression predicted for various periods North Koreathe period of 1953 and 1999 Granger causality test APEC (Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation) countries. General Equilibrium Model Türkey (1990-2004) Non-linear Time Series and Markow Modelling Türkey (1990-2006) Johansen Cointegraiton Method Türkey (1989-2003) VAR analysis Yang (2008) 30 countries (OECD and Asya) between 1958 and 2004 Panel Data Analysis Omisakin vd. (2009) Nigeria (1970-2006) Toda-Yamamoto causality and ARDL Method Source: Writers’ studies 163 Basic Findings He identified that free trade has had no positive effect on the growth since 1870,even this effect was positive in 1930’sand he expressed that this could be explained by the changing world trade regime. He supports the hypothesis that free trade arouses the economic growth. He identified that openness not only provided an effective change in country’s economy,but also it changed the structure of production technology. He identified that the changes of economic policy effected the sectors in economy and production factors in different ways. They found that trade openness in Turkey affected the growth positively. He identified that economic growth was affected positively from trade openness and there was a mutual causality between trade openness and economic growth in short term. They expressed that the hypothesis that trade openness claimed by endogeneous growth theories would increase the growth was applicable for Turkish economy. In the economies where the export growth is more rapid than the economic growth it was identifeid that froeign exchang policy helped in this situation. There is a positive relationship betweeen trade openness and growth and a % 10 increase in trade openness rate increases the growth nearly with the rate of % 7. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4. AMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 4.1. Data set and Model In this study, the effect of openness on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. From the variables used in the analysisy;represents the growth rate (GDP) andopen;represents trade openness (X+M/GSYİH). The data was obtained from the web pages of IMF and the World Bank (www.imf.org, www.worldbank.org). For analysis Stata 11 and Eviews 5.1. econometric analysis programmes were used and for model choise and correction tests codes22 were used. 4.2. Method Panal data analysis was used to search the data from different countries together. Panel data analysis (Baltagi, 2001; Gujarati, 1999 and Tarı, 2010): This model was based on decomposing the error term ( ) to its components in terms of its individual and time effects. In the modeliindicates the countries, tindicates the time. When the error term was decomposed: was obtained. This final equation is called error component model. Here indicates the individual effects, indicates the time effects.It is supposed (Independent Identically Distributed), in other words the avarage of error terms is zero, its variant is stable and it is distributed normally(having white noise process).In the Panel data analysis the stability of the series are searched through panel unit root tests firstly.Then the type of individual and time effects should be identified. An indogeneity test should be conducted among the variables when there is a variable which is considered to have a close relation with the given variable,therefore it is suspected for its indogeneity. After that a model should be estimated and the problems of changing variant and autocorrelation in the model should be tested. 4.3.Panel Unit Root Analysis It is accepted that the panel unit root tests which regard the information about both time and horizontal section dimension of the data are statistically stronger than the time series unit root tests which regard the information only about the time dimension (Im, Pesaran ve Shin,1997; Maddala ve Wu, 1999; Taylor ve Sarno, 1998; Levin, Lin ve Chu, 2002; Hadri, 2000; Pesaran, 2006; Beyaert and Camacho, 2008).Because the variability in the data increases when the horizontal section dimension is included to the analysis. The first problem in panel unit root test is whether the horizontal sections building the panel are independent or not. At that point panel unit root tests are classified as the first generation 22 For codes Thanks to Prof. Haluk Erlat, Asst.Prof. Bülent Güloğlu and Asst. Prof. Şaban Nazlıoğlu . 164 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo and the second generation. The first generation tests are also classified as homogeneous and heterogeneous.While Levin, Lin and Chu (2002), Breitung (2000) and Hadri (2000) are based on homogeneous model hypothesis; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) are based on heterogeneous model hypothesis. On the other hand, the main second generation unit root tests are MADF (Taylor and Sarno, 1998), SURADF (Breuer, Mcknown and Wallace, 2002), Bai and Ng (2004) and CADF (Pesaran, 2006). Since the countries included in the analysis are not homogeneous, Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) will use (IPS) testin this study. This test: is based on the model above. Here ; is error correction term and when <1 happens, we understand that the serie is trend stable ,on the other hand when 1 happens, it has unit root, thus it is not stable.IPS test enables the sto differentiate for the horizontal section units, in other words heterogeneous panel structure.Test hypotheses: H0: for all the horizontal section units,so the serie is not stable. H1: for at least one horizontal section unit,so the serie is stable. When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that the serie is stable. IPS panel unit root test results are on Table 4. Table4:IPS Panel Unit Root Test Results Level Possibility First Possibility Variant Value Value Difference Value Y -0,74 0,77 -2,64 0,00 OPEN 3,66 0,99 -3,79 0.00 Note:In Panel unit root test Schwarz criterionis used and delay length is regarded as 1.. When we study on the results on Table 4, it is observed that only Y and OPENseries are not stable in level value and series became stable in the first difference. In other words,in the studied period it is found out that macroeconomic variables are not stable and the shock effects on these variables do not disappear after a while.So we can say that the last economic crisis was destabilized the countries’ economies considerably. 4.4. Breush- Pagan Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Test In this stage of the analysis, LM test was performed in order to determine the type of time effect and individual effects( random or stable). Because the selected countries are not in a certain economic group, it was anticipated that individual effects would be random and also the time effects would be random for the countries because there is an economic crisis affecting most of the countries in the studied period. Whether the effects are really random or not can be determined by LM test (Baltagi. 2001:15). 165 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo LM test is classified as LM1 and LM2 . LM=LM1+LM2. LM1; tests the randomness of individual effects and F2 tests the randomness of time effects. In LM1 test; H0: (No individual effects ) hypothesis is tested throughLM1 statistics. LM1 statistics is calculated by the formula below. (4) Here ; indicates the individual effects in the equation (4), N;indicates the horizontal section (country) number, T; indicates the time dimension, ; indicates the prediction for the error terms in the equation (3). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that individual effects are random. In F2 test; H0: (No time effect) hypothesis is tested by LM2 statistics. LM2 statistics is calculated by the formula below. (5) Here ; indicates the individual effects in the equation (4), N; indicates the horizontal section (country) number , T; indicates the time dimension, ; indicates the predictions for the error terms in the equation (3). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that time effects are random. In LM=LM1+LM2 test; H0: (No individual and time effects) H1: or both of them (At least one or two of the effects are random). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that both of the effects are random.In this case the prediction is made through the two-sided random effect model.In Table 5 there are LM tests results. Table5: LM Tests Test Possibility Value Decision LM1 0,243 Individual Effects are not Random. LM2 0,052 Time Effects are not Random. LM 0.032 Individual Effects and Time Effects are not Random. When we look the results in Table 5, we can see thatindividual effects and time effects are stable.According to this result the prediction was made by the two-sided stable effect model. 166 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4.5. Hausman Endogeneity Test In this stage of the study,whether there was a relationship between the individual effects and the explanatory variables or not was tested by Hausman method. Test hypotheses: H0: Cov( No endogeneity problem. H1: Cov( An endogeneity problem. Here ; indicates the individual effets in the equation (4),but indicates the exlanatory variables in the equation (3). When the possibility value of (Chi2=Kikare) obtained from the analysis is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that there is an endogeneity problem in the model.In this case stable effects model is used.(Greene, 2003).However, when H0 is accepted,random effects model is used.This prediction is effective , non-deviated and coherent. Hausman test is not an alternative forLM test.But it works as function to check the decision by LM test. Hausman test was conducted and χ2=14.62 ve χ2 possibility value =0.406 was obtained and since this value was bigger than 0.05, H0 hypothesis was accepted and it was decided that there was no endogeneity problem in the model.In this case, it is necessary to do the analysis with the random effects model and this result supports the LM test results. 4.6. Two-Sided Random Effects Model Predictions Panel data analysis is predicted by the two-sided random effect model and the result are on theTable6. Table6: Predicition Results Standard Variant Coefficient t-Statistics Error Trade Openness 0,271 0,078 3,442 Crisis Dummy Variable 0,030 0,047 0,648 Stable Term 0,056 0,014 3,791 2 Weighted R =0,39 DW=1,89 Fist= 3,66 Root MSE=0.035 Possibility Value 0,000 0,518 0.000 In random effect models weighted statistics values are used. (Baltagi 2001: 21). When we look to the weighted test statistics in Table 6,we can see that model is reliable as statistically.Also whether there are flexible variants and autocorrelation problems in the model are tested below. 4.7. Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Flexible Variant Test The most common test in order to test whether the error terms variant of the model changes from horizontal section to horizontal section is LM test. (Greene, 2003). Test hypotheses: H0: variant problem. H1: At least one Variant is stable. So there is no flexible Variant is not stable. So there is a flexible variant problem. The required test statistics to test these hypotheses are calculated through the following formula: 167 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (6) When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected.In other words it is decided that there is a flexible variant problem in the model. (Greene, 2003). Lm test was conducted and the possibility value was found 0.23..In this case H0 was rejected and it was decided that there was no flexible variant problem in the model. 4.8. Autocorrelation Test It is a test to study the relationship of the error terms of the model with its delayed values.The equation to measure this relationship is AR(1) process (Wooldridge, 2002): (7) Test hypotheses: H0: H1: No autocorrelationproblem. Am autocorrelationproblem. The required test statistics to test these hypotheses is calculated by the following formula: (8) HereSSRR; indicates the sum of the squares of the error terms of the limited model in the equation (3) SSRUR; indicates the sum of the squares of error terms of the unlimited model, g; indicatesthe limit number anddf; indicates the independence grade. When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05,H0is rejected.It is decided that there is an autocorrelation problem in the model. (Drukker, 2003). F test was conducted and the possibility value was found0,622. In this case and it was decided that there was no autocorrelation problem in the model. H0is accepted Since there is no flexible variant and autocorrelation problems in the model, the prediction results are reliable and interpretable. As can be seen from the Table 6, financial development level affects the economic growth positively in line with the theoretical expectations.A % 1 increase in financial development level will increase the growth with the rate of % 1.33. The importance of the foreign direct investments especially in developing countries is often emphasized. As a result of the analysis the effect of a % 1 increase in the foreign direct investments on the growth will be % 0,79. Also trade openness variant used in the model was observed as the most effective variant in growth and it was found out that a %1 increase in openness level increased the growth with the rate of % 4,31. So this affected Turkey mostly in terms of the decrease in export depending on the decrease in external demand as a result of 2008 global economic crisis. (Somel, 2009). 5.CONCLUSION In this study the effect of financial development level on economic growth was searched via panel data analysis method in the sample of 5 developing countries which have an important place in the world economy(emerging markets, Brazil, Russia, India, China and TurkeyBRIC-T). The foreign direct investments and trade openness which were considered to affect 168 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the growth as well as financial development were included in the study where the annual data between 1989 and 2010 periods were used. At the panel unit root analysis result it was found out that series were not stable and the effects of shocks on the series did not disappear after a while and therefore it was determined that macroeconomic shocks affected the economy of the countries significantly. At the F tests result conducted to define the applicable panel data analysis method it was found out that individual and time effects were stable, for that reason an analysis with the two-sided stable effect model was carried out.At the endogeneity test result it was found out that there was no endogeneity problem in the model. At the model conformation tests result it was foud out that there was no flexible variant and autocorrelation problems in the model. In this regard, the predicted model is reliable econometrically. According to the analysis results, it was determined that a % 1 increase in financial development level increased the growth at the rate of % 1,33 , a % 1 increase in foreign direct investments increased the growth at the rate of % 0,79.Also it was found out that trade openness in the model was the most effective variant of the growth and the evidence that a % 1 increase in openness level increased the the growth at the rate of % 4,31.The expression that the global economic crisis in 2008 affected Turkey mostly in export dimension supports the analysis result. As a conclusion, in the study the effect of financial development, foreign direct investments and openness were searched and it was found that openness, financial development and foreign investments in turn affected the growth mostly. If the sustainable growth is considered as one of the most significant variables of the growth for the countries, the increase in foreign trade especially in export,the stimulations for the foreign direct investments and the increase in financial development level are very important. BIBLIOGRAPHIES Bai J.and Ng S. (2004). A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration. Econometrica, 72, 1127-1178. Baltagi B. H. (2001). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. (2d ed). New York: John Wiley & Sons. Beyaert A. and Camacho M. (2008). TAR Panel Unit Root Tests And Real Convergence: an Application to the EU Enlargement Process. Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 668681. Breuer B., Mcnown R. and Wallace M. (2002). Series-Specific Unit Root Test With Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64, 527–546. Breitung J. (2000). The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. in B. Baltagi (ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 15, Amsterdam: Jai, 161-178. Choi I. (2001). Unit Roots Tests For Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 229–272. Drukker D. M. (2003). Testing For Serial Correlation in Linear Panel Data Models. Stata Journal, 3(2), 168-177. 169 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Greene W.H. (2003). Econometric Analysis, (5th Ed). Upper Saddle River, N.J.: PrenticeHall. Gujarati D. N. (1999). Basic Econometrics, Mc Graw Hill. (3rd Ed.). İstanbul: Literatür Publishing. Hadri K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels. Econometrics Journal, 3,148-161. Im K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (1997). Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels. Mimeo, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge. Im K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots İn Heterogenous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74. IMF. (2009). World Economic Outlook, January, 28. Levin A. Lin C. and Chu J. (2002). Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics,108, 1: 24. Maddala G.S and Wu S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,61, 631-652. Pesaran, H. (2006). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Cambridge University ,Working Paper, No:0346. Somel C. (2009). Economic Crises and Capital Savings. Tes-İş Magazine, 80-83, March. Tarı R. (2011). Econometry. (7. Publication), İstanbul: Umuttepe Publishing. Taylor M. and Sarno L. (1998). The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period. Journal of International Economics.46, 281-312. Wooldridge J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: MIT Press. O’NEILL, Jim. (2001), Building Better Global Economic BRICs, Goldman Sachs, Global Economics, Paper No: 66, p:1-16. FRANK, William P., Emily C.Frank. (2010), International Business Challenge: Can The BRIC Countries Take World Economic Leadership Away From The Traditional Leadership in The Near Future?, International Journal of Arts and Sciences, Vol:3, No:13, p:46-54. Yang, Jie (2008). An Analysis of So-Called Export-led Growth, IMF Working Paper, WP/08/220. Sun, Haishun and Asho Parikh, (2001). “Exports, Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Regional Economic Growth in China”, Regional Studies, 35 (3): 187-196. KAPLAN, Muhittin; (2004), An Analytical Evaluation Of The Impact Of Openness On Economic Performance: A Three-Sector General Equilibrium Open Economy Model, Turkish Economic Association, Discussion Paper, 14, Internet Page; http://www.tek.org.tr/ dosyalar/M-KAPLAN-Model.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 09.02.2010. KURT, Serdar and Metin BERBER; (2008), “Openness in Turkey and Economic Growth”, Atatürk UniversityEconomic and Admisnistritive Magazine , 22(2), ss. 57-79. 170 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo OMISAKIN, Olusegun; Oluwatosin, ADENYIYI and Ayoola, OMOJOLAIBI; “Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness and Growth in Nigeria”, Journal of Economic Theory”, 3(2), ss. 13-18. RODRIGUEZ Francisco and Dani RODRIK; (1999), Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to Cross-National Evidence, NBER Working Paper 7081, Internet Page; http://www.nber.org/papers/w7081, Access Date: 09.02.2010. UTKULU, Utku and Hakan KAHYAOĞLU; (2005), “How Did The Trade and Financial Openness in Turkey Affected the Growth?”, Turkish Economy Instituation Arguement Text 13, Internet Page; http://www.tek.org.tr/ dosyalar/Utkulu-2005.pdf, Access Date: 11.02.2009. YAPRAKLI, Sevda; (2007), “The Relationship Between Trade And Financial Openness and Economic Growth: An Application on Turkey”, İstanbul University Faculty of Economy Econometri and Statistics Magazine, No 5, ss. 68-89. Anorua, E., andAhmad, Y. (2000) "Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries", The Indian Economic Journal, 47(3), ss. 110-117. Chui, M., Levine, P., Murshed, M., VE Pearlman, J. (1998) "Globalization: A New Growth, New Trade Perspective", Economic Outlook, February, ss. 1625. Barro, R. J. andSALA-I Martin, X. (1995) "Economic Growth", McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York. Bahmani-Oskooee, and M., Niromand, F. (1999)"Openness and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation", Applied Economics Letters, 6, ss. 557-561. Baldwin, R. E., andSeghezza, E. (1996) "Trade-Induced Investment Led-Growth", National Bureau of Economics Research Working Papers Series, No: 5582. Berber, M. (2004) "Economic Growth and Development", Derya Publishing, 2. Press, Trabzon. Brecher, A. R. (1974)"Optimal Commercial Policy For A Minimum-Wage Economy", Journal Of International Economics, (1992) "An Efficiency-Wage Model With Explicit Monitoring: 4, Ss. 139-149. Unemployment And Welfare In An Open Economy", Journal Of International Economics, 32, Ss. 179-191. Chow, P. C. Y. (1987) "Causality Between Exports And Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence From The Nic's", Journal Of Development Economics, 26, Ss.55-63. Dar, A., and Amirkhalkhali, S. (2003) "On The Impact Of Trade Openness On Growth: Further Evidence From Oecd Countries", Applied Economies, 35, 2, Ss. 1761-1766. Dickey, D. A., And Fuller, W. A. (1981) "The Likelihood Ratio Statistics For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root", Econometrica, 49, Ss. 171 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1057-1072. Dollar, D. (1992) "Outward-Oriented Developing Economics Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence From 95 Ldc's, 1976-85", Economic Development And Cultural Change, 40(3), Ss. 523-544. Edwards, S. (1992) "Trade Orientation, Distortions, And Growth In Developing Countries", Journal Of Development Economics, 39, (1998) "Openness, Productivity And Growth: What Do We Really Ss.31-57. Know?" The Economic Journal, 108, March, Ss. 383-398. Eroğlu, N. (2003) "The Development of Economy Policies in Turkey", Turkish Republic Symposiumin 80 th year29-31 Ekim, İstanbul. Granger, C.W.J., Huang, B., Ve Yang, C.W. (1998) "A Bivariate Causality Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence From Recent Asia Flu", Ucsd Economics Discussion Paper, April, Ss. 98-09. Harrison, A. (1996) "Openness And Growth: A Time Series, Cross-Country Analysis For Developing Countries", Journal Of Development Economics, 48, Ss. 419-447. Jaleel, A. (2001) "Causality Between Exports And Economic Growth: What Do The Econometric Studies Tell Us?", Pacific Economic Review, 6(1), Ss. 147-167. Jin, Jang C. (2003) "Openness And Growth In North Korea: Evidence From Time-Series Data", Review Of International Economics, 11(1), Ss. 1827. Kaplan, M. (2004) "An Analytical Evaluation Of The Impact Of Openness On Economic Performance: A Three-Sector General Equilibrium Open Economy Model", Turkish Economic Association, Discussion Paper, 2004/14, June. Kwan, A. C. C., Ve Cotsomitis, J. (1991) "Economic Growth And The Expanding Export Sector: China 1952-1985", International Economic Journal, 5, Ss. 105-117. Lucas, R. E. (1988) "On The Mechanics Of Economic Development", Journal Of Monetary Economics, 22(1), Ss. 3-42. Levine, R. Ve Renelt, D. (1992) "A Sensitivity Analysis Of Cross-Country Growth Regressions", American Economic Review, 82, Ss. 942-963. Michaely, M. (1977) "Exports And Growth: An Empirical Investigation", Journal Of Development Economics, 4, Ss. 49-53. Rodriguez, F. Ve Rodrik, D. (1999) "Trade Policy And Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide To The Cross National Evidence", Nber Working Paper, No: 7081. Romer, D. (1993) "Openness And Inflation: Theory And Evidence", Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 108, Ss. 869-903. 172 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Romer, P. (1986) "Increasing Returns And Long Run Growth", Journal Of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037. (1990) "Endogenous Technical Change", Journal Of Political Economy, 98, October, Ss. 71-102. (1994) "Perspectives On Growth Theory", Journal Of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), Winter. Sachs, J. D. Ve Warner, A. (1995) "Economic Reform And The Process Of Global Integration", Brooking Papers Of Economic Activity 0 (1), Ss. 195. Sinha, D., Ve Sinha, T. (1996) "Openness And Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence From India, Applied Economics, Ss.21-28. Seyidoğlu, H. (2003) "International Economy; Theory, Policy and Application", 15. Press, Güzem Publishing, March, İstanbul. Sims, C. A. (1980) "Macroeconomics And Reality", Econometrica, 48, Ss. 146. Vamvakidis, A. (2002) "How Robust Is The Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence", Journal Of Economic Growth, 7, Ss. 57-80. Wu, Y. (2004) "Openness, Productivity And Growth In The Apec Economies", Empirical Economies, 29, Ss. 593-604. http://www.dtm.gov.tr/Ekonomi/Trkekon.htm, 2005. Foreign Capital Inflow and Sustainable Economic Development: A Case Study of Turkey Ahmet Cetin1, Murat Mustafa Kutluturk1, Birol Cetin2 1CankiriKaratekin University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 18100 Cankiri, Turkey. 2Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency, VlahaBukovca, Podgoritsa. E-mails: akcetin@hotmail.com, mmkutluturk@gmail.com,bcetin@gop.edu.tr Abstract This study analyses the effect of foreign capital inflow (especially foreign direct investment) on the sustainable economic development of Turkey. The main objectives of the study are to analyses the long run relationship between foreign direct investment and sustainable economic development. Quarterly data were used from the period of 1992:Q1 to 2011:Q3. The Engle-Granger Methodology for cointegration was applied to estimate the long run relationship. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were used to check the stationarity of each variable in the model. The ADF tests of the differences of each variable indicate that all of the variables are integrated of the first order. Cointegration was applied to estimate the long run relationship. A stable long run relationship was found between foreign direct investment and the sustainable economic development. Even if error correction 173 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1322 Title A name given to the resource The Effect Of Openness On Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Author Author Mehmet Mercan, Mercan Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, the effect of openness on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. As openness variable, the proportion of external trade scale to GDP was used. According to empirical evidence derived from the study made with panel data analysis it was found that the effect of openness on economic growth was positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations. Keywords:Trade Openness, Economic Growth, BRIC Countries, Turkey. Jel Codes: E41, F43, G53 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f6dd59f253dafa4c04cd7bf9f6c7dbc4.pdf 1e69996484c112d272008ec923d3e31a PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Wziatek-Kubiak, A. (2003) “Critical Synthesis, Review of the Main Findings, Methodologies and Current Thought on Competitiveness of Accession Countries.Mapping of Competence”, Center for Socail and Economic Research, http://www.case.com.pl, (30.03.2012). Yapraklı, S. (2011) “Makroeconomic Factors Affecting International Competitiveness : A Practice on Turkish Production Industry”, Selçuk University İİBF. Social ve Economic Researces Magazine, Vol.16, Num..22., pages.-373-403. Kazgan, G (1988), Openness Growth in Economy, 2. Press, Altın Kitaplar, İstanbul. Çoban, O. and Çoban, S. (2004) “The Measurement of Competitiveness of Turkey by Globalization İndex: A Comparison with EU Countries, 1970-2001”, Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas University Social Sciences Magazine, 10,163-174. The Effect Of Financial Development On Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Mehmet Mercan1, İsmet Göçer2, Osman Peker2, Şahin Bulut2 1Hakkari University, FEAS, Department of Economy, 2 Adnan Menderes University, FEAS, Department of Economy E –mials: mercan48@gmail.com,ismetgocer@gmail.com, ottopeker@gmail.com, sbulut@adu.edu.tr Abstract In this study, the effect of financial development on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. Foreign direct investments and trade openness which were thought to have effects on the growth were included in the analysis.According to empirical evidence derived from the study made with panel data analysis it was found that the effect of financial development on economic growth was positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations.The evidence thateven foreign direct investments and openness contributed to the growth positively was also found. Keywords:Financial Development, Economic Growth, BRIC-T, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness. Jel Codes: E49, F19, G29 1.INTRODUCTION An increase in financial instruments and becoming of these instruments more commonly available in a country is defined as a financial development.In other words, financial growth 137 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo means the development of financial markets (Erim,2005). Financial growth is the change of financial system in terms of size and structure. However, financial deepening expresses the share of money supply in national income and it becomes a measure for financial growth and financial instrument variety(Saltoğlu,1998). Financial growth can be expressed as a channel that transforms the savings to the investment in financial changing process. In its literature, great contributions of the financial markets and instituations to the economic growth process of the countries in many ways are emphasized and this constitutes the subjects of many ampirical studies.In the studies it is generally stated that a financial system which performs its financial functions would contribute to the economic growth in long term.18Smoothly running financial markets in economy supports the capital accumulation, helps the small funds to direct to the big investments, encourages the disseminations of new technologies and thus by providing the effective usage of the sources , it supports the economic productivity and growth(Aslan and Küçükaksoy,2006) Economic growth of that country will be high, if financial instituations provide the credit demands of the reel sector.In the early studies about financial and economic growth (Gurley and Shaw,1955,1967; Gerschenkron, 1962; Goldsmith, 1969), we observe that the effect of financial intermediation function on economic growth process is uttered although the theoric thoughts can not be expressed as a whole. Though Gurley and Shaw make a great contribution to the literature by expressing the relationship between financial sector and economic growth for the first time, they do not make any comment about whether there is a causality relationship between financial development and economic growth or not or if there is , what the direction of this relationship is.Patrick (1966) for the first time dealed the relationship between financial sector and economic growth by conceptualizing.He expressed that the causality between financial sector and economic growth could be in two different forms. The writer explained this relationship by using the demand-following and supply-leading concepts. In demand-following case he expresses the financial sector growth to supply the demand occuring as a result of the developments in reel sector and in supply-leading he explains that the growth of financial sector institutionally would stimulate the economic growth. It is very difficult to say that there is an agreement in many studies performed in order to determine the direction of the causality between financial sector and economic growth. In the ampirical analysis between financial development and economic growth we can see that there are studies expressing the causality relationship is both one-sided and two-sided.19Also in some studies it is stated that the relationship between financial development and economic growth variables is weak,even financial growth may have a decreasing role in economic growth process(Singh, 1997; Deidda, 2006). Shortly called as BRIC firstly in the early 2000s Brazil,Russia,India and China that have common characters like wide area, big population and rapid economic growth are accepted as the fastest growing “emerging market” in world economy(O’Neill, 2001:1-16). Total area of these countries contains more than %25 of the world area and total population of them 18 Vide infra; King and Levine, 1993a, 1993b;Arestis and Demetriades, 1997; La Porta vd., 1997; Thiel, 2001; Levine, 2004; Eschenbach, 2004; Lawrence, 2006; Shan and Jianhong, 2006; Ang, 2007. 19 Vide infra; Hermes, 1994; Arestis and Demetriades, 1997; Thiel, 2001; Eschenbach, 2004; Lawrence, 2006; Shan and Jianhong, 2006; Ang, 2007 138 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo contains more than %40 of the world population. It is argued that BRIC group would take G7 group’s place and get the leadership of the world economy when the economic indicators are considered(Frank and Frank, 2010:46-54).Goldman Sachs who has studies about BRIC countries estimates that in 2050 China will be the greatest economy in the world,India will be the third,Brazil will be the fourth and Russia will be the sixth biggest economy. Based on these indicators, with the help of panel data analysis by using the annual data of 1989 and 2010 in our study the effect of financial development on economic growth is searched for BRIC countries and Türkiye that is the most devoloping country than after China and has a developing economy.In second section of the study, the literature ranking about empirical studies is presented as a table.In the following sectionsthe data set and method used in the analysis are introduced and evidences are given. In final section a general evaluation is conducted. 2. Literature Review The first studies searching the relationship between financial development and economic growth were conducted by Bagehot (1873) and Schumpeter (1912). In his study Schumpeter (1912) indicated that a smoothly running economy would support the investors economically by providing the finance of technological innovations that was necessary for producing the new products the most effectively and productively. Meanwhile,he expressed that the growth of financial sector especially the growth of banking sector was necassary for economic growth.In literature followingSchumpeter (1912) many theorical and empirical studies were performed.The studies searching the relationship between the financial development and economic growth, country group, the used methods and results were indicated in Table .As we can observe from the Table 1 the view that financial development effects the economic growth positively was supported although there was no agreement between financial development and economic growth in terms of causality in the studies generally. Table 1: The Abstract of Some Theoric and Empirical Studies Searching the Relationship betweenfinancial and economic growth Writers Sampling and Econometric Method Gurley and Theoricstudy Shaw (19551967) Goldsmith (1969) Benecivenga and Smith (1991) Atje and Jovanovic 139 development Basic Evidences They indicated the necessity of the realtionship between financial development and economic growth.They suggest that the services provided by the developed financial structure facilitate the relationship between saving owners and investors. An International study-35 He found a positive relationship between financial system size countries between the periods and economic growth. 1860-1963 Theoric study He estimated that the development of financial mediation in certain conditions would effect the growth rate. An International study-94 They concluded that stock markets and countries betweenthe periods bank credits effect the growth positively. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (1993) 1960-1985 King ve Levine An International study– 80 They said that all indicators of financial (1993) countries between the periods development were highly related with 1960-1980 economic growth rates, physical capital accumulation and economic productivity increase. Obstfeld (1994) Theoric study Liquid stock markets were positively related with economic growth,yet the integration with international capiatl markets was not related with the saving rates of theprivate lenders. Benecivenga vd. Teorik çalışma Hisse senedi piyasası likiditesi, büyüme (1995) oranları, verimlilik artışları ve sermaye birikimi arasında güçlü pozitif bağlantı bulunmaktadır. Levine and A horizontal section analysis There is a statistically positive meaningful Zervos using 3 growth rates as relationship between financial deepening (1996) dependent variant containing indicators and growth as the increase of the 77 countries output, the investment andthe productivity in three directions. Jayaratne and Panel data analysis including They found that the quality increase in Strahan (1996) 50 USA states (1972-92) banking debths was related with a more rapid growth. Levine (1997) A horizontal section analysis They indicated that financial development effected the economic growth via capital accumulation and technological innovation. Rousseau and Time series analysis for 5 They estimated the financial growth by a Wachtel (1998) industrialized countries very tiny feedback from the production to (USA, Canada, England, the mediation. Sweden, Norway) Rajan and Time series analysis on the Financial development has a great effect Zingales base of firm and industry for on economic growth.A developed financial (1998) a wide country group. (1980- structure provides a competetive advantage 1990) against the industries depended on external financing. Neusser and Production industries of Financial development gives priority to the Kugler (1998) OECD countries –time series growth and it is co-integrated with the total analysis. factor productivity of production industry and gross rate national product of pruduction sector. Levine and An international analysis Both liquid stock markets and developed Zervos (1976-93) banking sector effect the growth, the (1998) capital accumulation and the increase in productivity positively. Demirgüç-Kunt An international analysis for Active stock market and a well-developed and 30 developed and developing legal system facilitate the growth of the Maksimoviç(19 countries. firms. 98) 140 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Levine and Zervos (1998) Levine, Loayza and Beck (2000) Beck, Levine and Loayza (2000) Kang and Sawada (2000) Henry (2000) Shan vd. (2001) Arestis, Demetriades and Luinted (2001) Shan and Morris (2002) Developed Economies They got the results supporting the Horizontal section regression hypothesis that suggests financial development leads the economic growth. Horizontal section study and Between financial development and long dinamic panel techniques term growth there is a strong positive relationship which is not derived from synchronicity. Horizontal section study, Financial intermadiators have a positive instrumantal variable and great effect on the growth of total procedure, dinamic panel factor productivity supporting the gross techniques rate national product growth. Time series data for 20 Financial development and trade countries liberalizition accelerate the economic Inner Growth Model growth by increasing the marginal benefits of human capital investments. It was found that the liberalization in stock markets 11 developing countries increased the investments in many countries. Panel Data Analysis 9 OECD Countries and China He found two sided causality in 5 countries and Causality Test and VAR supply leading causality in 3 countries,but in 2 countries he found no relationship. Analysis 5 Developed Countries The development of the banks and capital Cointegration and Correction markets accelarates the economic Model Analysis growth,but in this process banks have a more effective role. 19 OECD Countries ve China They reached the results that financial development causes economic growth directly or indriectly. Causality Test Arestis vd. (2002) 6 Developing Countries Standard Econometric Techniques Al-Yousif 30 Developing Countries(2002) Ganger Causality and Panel Data Analysis Müslümov and OECD Sample (22 countries) Aras (2002) Granger Causality and Panel Data Bhattacharya India Sample and Causality Analysis Sivasubramania n (2003) Calderon ve Liu 109 Developed and (2003) Developing Countries Fink vd. (2003) 141 13 Developed Countries Cointegration and Correction Model Analysis The effect of financial liberalization on financial development is ambigious. It was found that there was a two sided causality relationship between financial development and economic growth. It was obtained a one sided relationship from the development of capital market to economic growth. They reached the result that financial development causes economic growth. They reached the result that financial development effects the economic growth via capital accumulation and productivity. They reached the evidences supporting the “demand-following”and “supply-leading” approaches in Italy, Japan and Finland; “supplyleading”in USA, Germany, Austria, England, Switzerlandand weakly “supply-demanding” in Holland and Spain. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo He expressed that financial system had a signifiacnt role in the growth of African countries. They emphasized the importance of financial development in the economic growth process. Ghirmay (2004) 13 Africancountries Beck and Levine (2004) Dritsakis and Adamopoulos (2004) 40 countries Panel Data Analysis Greece Sample Causality Based on Error Correction Model Thangavelu vd. (2004) Australia Sample VAR Methodology Rioja and Valev (2004) 10 Countries Panel Data Analysis Christopoulos and Tsionas (2004) Chang and Caudill (2005) 10 Developing Countries Panel Cointegraiton Analysis Taiwan Sample VAR Methodology They found a causality from financial development to the economic growth,thus the “supply-leading” hypothesis was confirmed. Caporale vd. (2005) 5 Southeastern Asian Countries Cointegration Granger Causality 99 Countries Panel Data Analysis 71 Countries It was found that capital market increased the economic growth by increasing the investment activity. Ndikumana (2005) McCaig and Stengos (2005) Rousseau ve Vuthipadadorn (2005) 10 Asian Countries Cointegration Granger Causality Shan and Jianhong (2006) Ang and McKibbin (2007) Artan (2007) Chine Sample VAR Methodology Shahbaz vd. (2008) 142 Malaysia Sample Cointegration Granger Causality 79 Countries Sample Panel Data Analysis Pakistan Sample Cointegration Granger Causality They reached the result that there was a causality relationship between financial development and economic growth.They could not find any relationship between the growth and the openness of the economy. They found a causality from economic growth to the development of financial intermediaries,but they could not reach an evidence that the development of financial markets would cause economic growth. They got the evidence that economic growth increased by increasing the productivity in the countries that the financial development was high and by accelerating the capital accumulation in the countries that financial development was low. They found the evidence that economic growth was the cause of financial development. He presented the results that the development of financial intermediation increased the investments. They identified that the development of financial intermediation affected the growth strongly and positively. They reached the results that financial development stimulated the investments and there was a onesided realationship (supply-leading) from financial development to the investments in many countries. They found that there was a two sided causality relationship between financial development and economic growth. They identified that growth increased the financial deepening.Meanwhile the relationship was supply-leading. In underdeveloped countries financial development affects the growth negatively. He showed that there was a stronge and a two sided causality relationship between the development in stock markets and �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo economic growth. Abu-Bader and Middle East and North Abu-Qarn African Countries (2008) VAR Methodology-Causality Enisan and Olufisayo (2009) 7African Countries ARDL Method In analysis results it was identified a demandfollowing causality suggesting the financial development increased the economic growth.However, for Israel it was identified a supply-leading causality from economic growth to financial development. They concluded that the development in stock market in Egypt and South Africa increased the economic growth and the direction for the causality was from the development in stock market to the economic growth. Kar vd. (2011) MENA Countries(1980- They infered that it was impossible to 2007) make a certain comment about the Panel Granger Causality Test causality between financial development and economic growth. Hassan, Sanchez 168 Countries Classified It was discovered that there was a positive Yu (2011) According to Income Level relationship between financial Panel Data Analysis development and economic growth in developing countries.For many country samples a two sided causality was obtained for short term period. Source: Study of the writers and Kularatne, 2001: 10-11. There are also studies searching the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey sample. In ampirical studies on Turkey it can be said that there is no consensus about the causality relationship between financial development and economic growth. Table 2: The Abstract of Some Theoric and Ampirical Studies Searching the Financial Development and Economic Growth Relationship on the Scale of Turkey Kar and Pentecost (2000) Gökdeniz vd. (2003) Turkey Sample Cointegration Analysis Error Correction Model In the study they found that the direction of the financial development and economic growth relationship could change depending on the selected financial development indicator. Turkey Sample1989-2002) The evidence that financial markets Regression Analysis affected the economic growth could not be found. Atamtürk (2004) Turkey Sample(1975-2003) He found the evidence of a one-sided Granger Causality causality from financial development to economic growth.(Supply-leading hypothesis was confirmed.) Onur (2005) Turkey Sample After financial liberalization in Turkish Granger Causality economy it was found out that financial (Autoregressive Model) liberalization, financial development and openness was not the cause of Gross Domestic Product,but Gross Domestic Pruduct was the cause of financial liberalization, financial development and openness. They found out that economic growth was due to Aslan and Turkey Sample financial development.In other words it supported Küçükaksoy (1970-2004) the economic growth. (2006) Granger Causality 143 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Aslan and Korap (2006) Acaravcı vd. (2007) Kandır vd. (2007) Afşar (2007) Altunç (2008) Ağır vd. (2009) Test Turkey Sample (1986-2004) Cointegration AnalysisGranger Causality Test Turkey Sample (1986-2006) Cointegration Analysis Turkey Sample (1988-2004) Cointegration Analysis Error Correction Model Theoric Study-Literature Scan Turkey Sample (1970-2006) Cointegration Analysis Error Correction Model Turkey Sample Literature Scan They expressed that the direction of the causality between financial development and economic growth changedaccording to the financial development indicator. They found out that in Turkey there was a onesided causality from financial development to economic growth. He found out that there was a demand-following relationship between financial development and economic growth.In other words it was observed that economic growth increased the financial development in Turkey. He found out the evidence that there was a strong relationship between financial development and economic growth in Turkey but the direction of the causality was ambiguous. He expressed that the direction of the causality between financial development and economic growth changed according to the financial development indicator. He expressed that the relationship between financial development and economic growth could be simultaneous. Altıntaş and Turkey Sample They found out that financial development Ayrıçay (2010) (1987-2007) was the most effective factor on the growth ARDL(Autoregressive and also the effect of the rate was Distributed Lag Mode)Bound relatively less.They infered that the TestApproach avaibility of the funds rather than their costs could contribute to increase the reel incomein developing countries like Turkey. They observed that there was a demand-following Keskin and Turkey Sample relationship between financial development and Karşıyakalı (1987-2007) economic growth,thus financial development was (2010) Engle-Granger Method and due to economic growth in Turkey. Causality Analysis Öztürk vd. 8 Developing Countries They found out that there was a one-sided (2011) andTurkey Sample (1992- causality from financial development to 2009) economic growth.(Demand-following Panel Causality Test hypothesis was confirmed.) Ekonomik büyümeden finansal gelişmeye doğru tek Özcan and Arı Turkey Sample yönlü bir nedenselliğin varlığı bulgusunu elde (2011) (1998-2009) etmişlerdir. (Talep izleyici hipotez doğrulanmıştır) VAR Analysis They found out that although there was a strong İnce (2011) Turkey Sample relationship between economic growth and (1980-2010) financial development in a long term period, there Cointegration Analysis was a relationship in a short term period. Granger Causality Analysis 144 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3. Financial Development Indicators In financial development literature, the proportion of financial sector to Gross Domestic Product is defined as financial depth (Feldman and Gang, 1990; Outreville, 1999). The indicators predicating the size of loan and currency are the variables that are used as a measure of financial development.In literature in limited and unlimited sense, the proportion of curruncy supply to GDP (M1/GDP, M2/GDP, M2Y/GDP), private sector loans/GDP, private sector credits of the banks/GDP, market value of the firms in Stock Exchange Market/GDP,effective money/GDP are usedas the indicator of financial development and financial depth.20“ Loans for the private sector” variable that has been used recently as an alternative indicator for financial intermediation is not preferred because the indicators based on the size of currency (MI, M2,M2Y) in some studies do not represent the financial development. (Khan and Senhadji, 2000). The most fundamental of these indicators is the indicators giving the proportion of limited and unlimited defined currency supply/GDP.It is indicated that M1/GDP proportion is not in strong relation with the growth,but M2/GDP proportion indicates the measure of the size of the whole sector in financial intermediation and it is in strong relation with the change in per cepita real GDP (King and Levine, 1993). 4. AMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 4.1. Data Set and Model In this study the effect of financial development on eceonomic growth was searched by using the data between 1989-2010 period in the sample of 5 developing countries which have an important place in world economy (Brazil, Russia, India, China ve Turkey-BRIC-T).In the analysis, besides the financial development, foreign direct investments and trade openness which were thought to affect the growth was included to the model.From the variables used in the analysisy;represents the growth rate (GDP), fd;represents Financial Development (M2/GDP), fdi;represents Foreign Direct Investments (FDI/GDP) ve open;represents trade openness (X+M/GDP).The data was obtained from the web pages of IMF and the World Bank(www.imf.org, www.worldbank.org). For analysis Stata 11 and Eviews 5.1. econometric analysis programmes were used and for model choise and correction tests codes21 were used. 4.2. Method Panal data analysis was used to search the data from different countries together. Panel data analysis (Baltagi, 2001; Gujarati, 1999 and Tarı, 2010): 20 Vide infra; Khan and Qayyum, 2007; s. 4; Outreville, 1999, Darrat, 1999, Gupta, 1984; King and Levine, 1993; Demetriades and Hussein, 1996, Halıcıoğlu, 2007 21 For codes Thanks to Prof. Dr. Haluk Erlat, Asst.Prof. Bülent Güloğlu and Asst.Prof. Şaban Nazlıoğlu . 145 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo This model was based on decomposing the error term ( ) to its components in terms of its individual and time effects. In the modeliindicates the countries, tindicates the time. When the error term was decomposed: was obtained. This final equation is called error component model. Here indicates the individual effects, indicates the time effects.It is supposed (Independent Identically Distributed), in other words the avarage of error terms is zero, its variant is stable and it is distributed normally(having white noise process). In the Panel data analysis the stability of the series are searched through panel unit root tests firtsly.Then the type of individual and time effects should be identified. An indogeneity test should be conducted among the variables when there is a variable which is considered to have a close relation with the given variable,therefore it is suspected for its indogeneity. After that a model should be estimated and the problems of changing variant and autocorrelation in the model should be tested. 4.3.Panel Unit Root Analysis It is accepted that the panel unit root tests which regard the information about both time and horizontal section dimension of the dataare statistically stronger than the time series unit root tests which regard the information only about the time dimension (Im, Pesaran ve Shin,1997; Maddala ve Wu, 1999; Taylor ve Sarno, 1998; Levin, Lin ve Chu, 2002; Hadri, 2000; Pesaran, 2006; Beyaert and Camacho, 2008).Because the variability in the data increases when the horizontal section dimension is included to the analysis. The first problem in panel unit root test is whether the horizontal sections building the panel are independent or not.At that point panel unit root tests are classified as the first generation and the second generation.The first generation tests are also classified as homogeneous and heterogeneous.While Levin, Lin and Chu (2002), Breitung (2000) and Hadri (2000) are based on homogeneous model hypothesis, Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) are based on heterogeneous model hypothesis. On the other hand, the main second generation unit root tests are MADF (Taylor and Sarno, 1998), SURADF (Breuer, Mcknown and Wallace, 2002), Bai and Ng (2004) and CADF (Pesaran, 2006). Since the countries included in the analysis are not homogeneous, Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003)will use (IPS) testin this study. This test: is based on the model above. Here ; is error correction term and when <1 happens, we understand that the serie is trend stable ,on the other hand when 1 happens, it has unit root,thus it is not stable. IPS test enables the sto differentiate for the horizontal section units,in other words heterogeneous panel structure.Test hypotheses: H0: 146 for all the horizontal section units,so the serie is not stable. �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo H1: for at least one horizontal section unit,so the serie is stable. When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05, H0is rejected and it is decided that the serie is stable. IPS panel unit root test results are on Table 4. Table4:IPS Panel Unit Root Test Results Level Possibility First Possibility Variant Value Value Difference Value y -0,74 0,77 -2,64 0,00 m2 -0,21 0,41 -4,60 0,00 fdi -1,04 0,14 -3,29 0,00 open 3,66 0,99 -3,79 0.00 Note:In Panel unit root test Schwarz criterionis used and delay length is regarded as 1. When we study on the results on Table4, it is observed that all series are not stable in level value,but the series become stable when first differences of the series are taken.In other words,in the studied period it is found out that macroeconomic variables are not stable and the shock effects on these variables do not disappear after a while. 4.4. Breush- Pagan Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Test In this stage of the analysis, F test was performed in order to determine the type of time effect and individual effects( random or stable). Because the selected countries are in a certain economic group, it was anticipated that individual effects would be stable and also the time effects of financial development on the growth would be stable for the countries in the studied period. Whether the effects are really random or not can be determined by F test (Baltagi. 2001:15). F test is classified as F1 andF2 . F=F1+F2. andF2tests the time effects are stable. F1;tests the individual effects are stable In F1 test; H0: (No individual effects ) hypothesis is tested throughF1 statistics. F1 statistics is calculated by the formula below. (4) Here ; indicates the individual effects in the equation (4), N;indicates the horizontal section (country) number, T; indicates the time dimension, ; indicates the prediction for the error terms in the equation (3). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that individual effects are stable. In F2 test; H0: (No time effect) hypothesis is tested by F2 statistics. F2 statistics is calculated by the formula below. 147 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo (5) Here ; indicates the individula effects in the equation(4), N; indicates the horizontal section (country) number, T; indicates the time dimension, ; indicates the predictions for the error terms in the equation (3). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that time effects are stable. In F=F1+F2 test; H0: (No individual and time effects) H1: or both of them (At least one or two of the effects are random). When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that both of the effects are stable.In this case a prediction is made through the two-sided stable effect model.In Table5 there are F tests results. Table5: LM Tests Test Possibility Value Decision F1 0,004 Individual Effects are not Stable. F2 0,001 Time Effects are not Stable. F 0.001 Individual Effects and Time Effects are not Stable.. When we look the results in Table5, we can see thatindividual effects and time effects are stable.According to this result the prediction was made by the two-sided stable effect model. 4.5. Hausman Endogeneity Test In this stage of the study,whether there was a relationship between the individual effects and the explanatory variables or not was tested by Hausman method. Test hypotheses: H0: Cov( No endogeneity problem. H1: Cov( An endogeneity problem. Here ; indicates the individual effets in the equation (4),but indicates the exlanatory variables in the equation(3).When the possibility value of (Chi2=Kikare) obtained from the analysis is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected and it is decided that there is an endogeneity problem in the model.In this case random effects model is used.(Greene, 2003).However, when H0 is accepted,stable effects model is used.This prediction is effective , non- deviated and coherent.Hausman test is not an alternative forF test. But it works as function to check the decision by F test.Hausman test was conducted and χ2=14.62 veχ2 possibility value =0.404 was obtained and since this value was bigger than 0.05 , H0 hypothesis was accepted and it 148 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo was decided that there was no endogeneity problem in the model.In this case, it is necessary to do the analysis with the random effects model and this result supports the F test results. 4.6. Two-Sided Random Effects Model Predictions Panel data analysis is predicted by the two-sided random effect model and the result are on theTable6. Table6: Prediction Results Standard Variable Coefficient Error m2 1,332 0,949 fdi 0,792 0,439 open 4,315 2,596 Stable Term 2,310 1,101 Weighted R2=0,46Fist= 4,28 t-Statistics* 1,403 1,802 1,662 2,097 *: %10 level of significance was used. In stable effect models weighted statistics values are used. (Baltagi 2001: 21). When we look to the weighted test statistics in Table6,we can see that model is reliable as statistically.Also whether there are flexible variants and autocorrelation problems in the model are tested below. 4.7. Lagrange Multiplier (LM) Flexible Variant Test The most common test in order to test whether the error terms variant of the model changes from horizontal section to horizontal section is LM test. (Greene, 2003). Test hypotheses: H0: variant problem. H1: At least one Variant is stable. So there is no flexible Variant is not stable. So there is a flexible variant problem. The required test statistics to test these hypotheses are calculated through the following formula: (6) When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected.In other words it is decided that there is a flexible variant problem in the model. (Greene, 2003).Lm test was conducted and the possibility value was found 0.05.In this case H0 was rejected and it was decided that there was no flexible variant problem in the model. 4.8. Autocorrelation Test It is a test to study the relationship of the error terms of the model with its delayed values.The equation to measure this relationship is AR(1) process (Wooldridge, 2002): (7) 149 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Test hypotheses: H0: No autocorrelationproblem. H1: Am autocorrelationproblem. The required test statistics to test these hypotheses is calculated by the following formula: (8) HereSSRR; indicates the sum of the squares of the error terms of the limited model in the equation (3) SSRUR; indicates the sum of the squares of error terms of the unlimited model, g; indicatesthe limit number and df; indicates the independence grade. When the possibility value obtained from the test results is smaller than 0.05 , H0is rejected.It is decided that there is an autocorrelation problem in the model. (Drukker, 2003). F test was conducted and the possibility value was found0,052.In this case and it was decided that there was no autocorrelation problem in the model. H0is accepted Since there is no flexible variant and autocorrelation problems in the model, the prediciton results are reliable and interpretable. As can be seen from the Table 6, financial development level affects the economic growth positively in line with the theoretical expectations.A % 1 increase in financial development level will increase the growth with the rate of % 1.33. The importance of the foreign direct investments especially in developing countries is often emphasized. As a result of the analysis the effect of a % 1 increase in the foreign direct investments on the growth will be % 0,79. Also trade openness variant used in the model was observed as the most effective variant in growth and it was found out that a %1 increase in openness level increased the growth with the rate of % 4,31.So this affected Turkey mostly in terms of the decrease in export depending on the decrease in external demand as a result of 2008 global economic crisis. (Somel, 2009). 5.CONCLUSION In this study the effect of financial development level on economic growth was searched via panel data analysis method in the sample of 5 developing countries which have an important place in the world economy(emerging markets, Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey-BRICT). the foreign direct investments and trade openness which were considered to affect the growth as well as financial development were included in the study where the annual data of 1989-2010 periods were used. At the panel unit root analysis result it was found out that series were not stable and the effects of shocks on the series did not disappear after a while and therefore it was determined that macroeconomic shocks affected the economy of the countries significantly. At the F tests result conducted to define the applicable panel data analysis method it was found out that individual and time effects were stable,for that reason an analysis with the twosided stable effect model was carried out.At the endogeneity test result it was found out that there was no endogeneity problem in the model. At the model conformation tests result it was foud out that there was no flexible variant and autocorrelation problems in the model. In this regard, the predicted model is reliable econometrically. According to the analysis results, it was determined that a % 1 increase in financial development level increased the growth at the rate of % 1,33 , a % 1 increase in foreign direct investments increased the growth at the rate of % 0,79.Also it was found out that trade 150 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo openness in the model was the most effective variant of the growth and the evidence that a % 1 increase in openness level increased the the growth at the rate of % 4,31.The expression that the global economic crisis in 2008 affected Turkey mostly in export dimension supports the analysis result. To sum up, in the study the effect of financial development, foreign direct investments and openness were searched and it was found that openness, financial development and foreign investments in turn affected the growth mostly. If the sustainable growth is considered as one of the most significant variables of the growth for the countries, the increase in foreign trade especially in export,the stimulations for the foreign direct investments and the increase in financial development level are very important. BIBLIOGRAPHIES Bai J.and Ng S.(2004). A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration.Econometrica, 72, 1127-1178. Baltagi B. H. (2001). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. (2d ed). New York: John Wiley & Sons. BeyaertA.and Camacho M. (2008). TAR Panel Unit Root Tests And Real Convergence: an Application to the EU Enlargement Process.Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 668681. Breuer B., Mcnown R. and Wallace M. (2002). Series-Specific Unit Root Test With Panel Data.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64, 527–546. Breitung J. (2000).The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. in B. Baltagi (ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 15, Amsterdam: Jai, 161-178. Choi I. (2001). Unit Roots Tests For Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 229–272. Drukker D.M. (2003). Testing For Serial Correlation in Linear Panel Data Models.Stata Journal, 3(2),168-177. Greene W.H. (2003).Econometric Analysis, (5th Ed). Upper Saddle River, N.J.: PrenticeHall. Gujarati D. N. (1999).Basic Econometrics, Mc Graw Hill.(3rd Ed.). İstanbul: Literatür Publishing. Hadri K. (2000). Testing for Stationarity in Heterogenous Panels.Econometrics Journal,3,148161. Im K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (1997). Testing For Unit Roots in Heterogenous Panels.Mimeo, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge. Im K., Pesaran H. and Shin Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots İn Heterogenous Panels.Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74. IMF. (2009).World Economic Outlook, January, 28. Levin A. Lin C. and Chu J. (2002). Unit Roots Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties.Journal of Econometrics,108, 1: 24. 151 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Maddala G.S and Wu S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,61, 631-652. Pesaran, H. (2006). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence.Cambridge University ,Working Paper, No:0346. Somel C. (2009).Economic Crises and Capital Savings.Tes-İş Magazine, 80-83, March. Tarı R. (2011).Econometry.(7. Basım), İstanbul: Umuttepe Publishing. Taylor M. and Sarno L. (1998). The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period.Journal of International Economics.46, 281-312. Wooldridge J. M. (2002).Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: MIT Press. O’NEILL, Jim. (2001), Building Better Global Economic BRICs, Goldman Sachs, Global Economics, Paper No: 66, p:1-16. FRANK, William P., Emily C.Frank. (2010), International Business Challenge: Can The BRIC Countries Take World Economic Leadership Away From The Traditional Leadership in The Near Future?, International Journal of Arts and Sciences, Vol:3, No:13, p:46-54. Abu-Bader, S. and A. S. Abu-Qarn (2008) “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Six MENA Countries”, Review of Development Economics, 12(4): 803–817. Acaravcı, A., İ. Öztürk, and S. A. Kakilli (2007), “Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Turkey”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 11, 30-40. Afşar, A. (2007), “The Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth”, Accountancy and Financing Magazine, 36, 188-197. Ağır, H., O. Peker and M. Kar (2009), “An Evaluation on Financial Development Determiners: Literature Scan ”, BDDK Banking and Financial Markets, 3(2), 31-53. Altıntaş, H. and Y. Ayrıçay (2010) “The Analysis of The Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey with The Bounds Test Approach: 1987–2007” Anadolu University Social Sciences Magazine, 10(2): 71–98. Altunç, Ö. F. (2008), “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğin Ampirik Bir Analizi”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 3(2): 113-127. Ang, J. B. (2007), “Are Financial Sector Policies Effective in Deepening the Malaysian Financial System?”, Monash University, Discussion Paper, 02/07. 152 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Ang, J. B. and W. J. Mckibbin (2007) “Financial Liberalization, Financial Sector Development and Growth: Evidence From Malaysia”, Journal of Development Economics, 84(1): 215-233. Arestis, P. and P. Demetriades (1997) “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence” Economic Journal, 107(442), 783-799. Arestis, P., P. Demetriades and K. B. Luintel (2001). “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets. Journal of Money”, Credit and Banking, 33(1): 16–41. Arestis, P., P. Demetriades, B. Fattouh and K. Mouratidis (2002). “The Impactof Financial Liberalization Policies on Financial Development: Evidence From Developing Economies” International Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(2):109121. Artan, S. (2007), “The Effects of Financial Development on Growth: Literature and Practice”, Economy Management Finance Magazine, 22(252), 70-89. Aslan, Ö. and H. L. Korap (2006) “The relation of Financial Development and Growth in Turkey”, Muğla University Social Sciences Magazine , Güz, (17), 1-20. Aslan, Ö. And İ. Küçükaksoy (2006) “The relation of Financial Development and Growth: An Econometrical Practice on Türkey Economy”, İstanbul University Faculty of Economy Econometry and Statistics Magazine, 4: 12-28. Atamtürk, B. (2004), “A Search About The Causality Direction of Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey (1975-2003)”, İstanbul University Finance Search Conferences, 46, 100-104. Atje, R. and B. Jovanovic (1993) “Stock Markets and Development”, European Economic Review, 37(2-3): 635–637. Bagehot, W. (1873) Lombart Street: A Description of the Money Market. New York: E. P. Dutton and Company, Reprint 1920. Beck, T. And R. Levine (2004) “Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence” Journal of Banking and Finance, (28): 423–442. Beck,T., R. Levine and N. Loayza (2000) “Finance and the Sources of Growth”. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2): 261–300. Bencivenga, V. and B. Smith (1991) “Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth” Review of Economic Studies, 58: 195-209. Bencivenga, V. R., B. D. Smith, and R. M. Starr (1995), “Transactions Costs, Technological Choice, and Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Economic Theory, 67(1), 53–177. 153 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Bhattacharya, P. C. and M. N. Sivasubramanian (2003) “Financial Development and Economic Growth in India: 1970-1971 to 1998-1999”, Applied Financial Economics, 13(2): 925-929. Calderon, C. and L. Liu (2003) “The Direction Causality between Financial Development Economic Growth” Journal of Development Economics, 72(1): 321-334. Caporale, G. M., P. Howells and A. M. Soliman (2005) “Endogenous Growth Models and Stock Market Development: Evidence From Four Countries”, Review of Development Economics, 9(2): 166–176. Chang, T. and S. B. Caudill (2005) “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan”, Applied Economics, 37: 1329-1335. Christopoulos, D. K. and E. G. Tsionas (2004) “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence From Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests” Journal of Development Economics,73(1): 55–74. Darrat, A. F. (1999), “Are Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Causally Related? Another Look at the Evidence”, International Economic Journal, 13 (3), 19-35. Deidda, L. G. (2006) “Interaction Between Economic and Financial Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53: 233-248. Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and V. Maksimovic (1998), “Law, Finance and Firm Growth”, Journal ofFinance, 53(6): 2107–2137. Demetriades, P. and K. Hussein (1996) “Financial Development and Economic Growth. Cointegration and Causality Tests for 16 Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 51(2), 387-411. Dickey, D. and W. A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimates for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. Dritsakis, N. and A. Adamopoulos, (2004), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Greece: An Empirical Investigation with Granger Causality Analysis”, International Economic Journal, 18(4), 547-559. Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. 1 rd edition, Wiley, New York. Enders, W. (1996). Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series. John Willey and Song Inc. Engle, R. and C. W. J. Granger (1987) “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Represention, estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. Enisan, A. A. and A. O .Olufisayo (2009) “Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries”, Journal of Economics and Business, 61(2), March-April, 162-171. Erim, N. ve A. Türk (2005), “Financial Development and Economic Growth”, Kocaeli University Institute of Social Sciences Magazine, 10, 21-45 Eschenbach, F. (2004) “Finance and Growth: A Survey of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature” Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, TI 2004039/2. Feldman, D. H. and I. N. Gang (1990), “Financial Development and the Price of Services”, Economic Development Cultural Change, 38(2), 341–352 154 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Fink, G., P. Haiss and S. Hristoforova (2003) “Bond Markets and Economic Growth” Research Institute for European Affairs Working Paper, 49. Gerschenkron, A. (1962), Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Ghirmay, T. (2004) “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries. Evidence from Time Series Analysis”, African Development Review,16(3), 415–432. Goldsmith, R.W. (1969). Financial Structure and Economic Development. New Haven: Yale University Press. Gökdeniz, İ., M. Erdoğan and K. Kalyüncü (2003), “The Effect of Financial Markets on Economic Growth and Turkey Sample (1989-2002)”, Gazi University Magazine, 1, 101-117. Granger, C. W. J. and P. Newbold (1974) “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2 (2): 111-120. Gujarati, D. N. (1999). Basic Econometry, ( Çev. Ü. Şenesen and G. G. Şenesen ). İstanbul: Literatür Publishing. Gupta, K. L. (1984), Finance and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, London and Dover: Croom Helm. Gurley, J. G. and E. S. Shaw (1955) “Financial Aspects of Economic Development” American Economic Review, 45(4), 515-538. Gurley, J. G. and E. S. Shaw (1967) “Financial Structure and Economic Development”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15(3), 257-268. Halıcıoğlu, F. (2007). Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus For Turkey. MPRA Paper No:3566, (http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/3566/, 10.06.2009). Hassan, M. K., B. Sanchez and J. S. Yu (2011) “Financial Development And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Panel Data”, The Quartely Rewiev of Economics and Finance, 51(1), 88-104. Henry, P. B. (2000), “Do Stock Market Liberalisation Cause Investment Booms?”, Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2), 301-334. Hermes, N. (1994) “Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Survey of the Literature”, Internationl Journal of Development Banking, 12(1), 322. İnce, M. (2011), “Financial Liberalization, Financial Development And Economic Growth: An Emprical Analysis For Turkey”, Journal of Yasar University, 23(6), 3782-3793 Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money” Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, (52), 169-210. 155 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, (12), 231-254. Johnston, J. and J. Dinardo (1997). Econometric Methods. Newyork: 4th Ed. McGraw -Hill. Jayaratne, J. and P. E. Strahan (1996), “The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence From Bank Branch Deregulation”, The Quartely Journal of Economics, 111(3), 639-670. Kandır, S., Ö. İskenderoğlu and B. Önal (2007) “Seaching The Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth ÇUInstitute of Social Sciences Magazine, 16(2), 311-326. Kang, S. J. and Y. Sawada (2000), “Financial Repression And External Openness in An Endogenous Growth Model”, The Journal Of International Trade & Economic Development, 9(4), 427-443. Kar, M. and E. Pentecost (2000) “The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: Further Evidence”, Economic Research Paper, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, No: 00/27. Kar, M., Ş. Nazlıoğlu, and H. Ağır (2011), “Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in the MENA Countries: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causalitly Analysis”, Economic Modelling, 28, 685-693. Kamas, L. and J. P. Joyce (1993) “Money, Income and Prices Under Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from Causality Tests and VARs”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 15(4), 747-768. Keskin, N. ve B. Karşıyakalı (2010), “The Relation of Financial Development and Economic Growth: Türkey Sample ”, Finance Political & economic Comments, 47(548), 76. Khan, M. S. and A. Senhadji (2000), “Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, No. 00/110 Khan, M. S. and A. Qayyum (2007), “Trade, financial and growth nexus in Pakistan”, Economic Analysis Working,Paper, 6(14), 2-22 King, R.G. and R. Levine (1993) “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right” Economic Journal, 107, 771–782. King, R. G. and R. Levine (1993a) “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737. King, R. G. and R. Levine (1993b) “Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 513-542. La Porta, R., F. LopezdeSilanes, A. Shleifer and R. W. Vishny (1997) “Legal Determinants of External Finance”, Journal of Finance, 52, 1131-1150. Lawrence, P. (2006) “Finance and Development: Why Should Causation Matter?.”, Journal of International Development, 18, 997-1016. Levine, R. and S. Zervos (1996), “Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth”, World Bank Econ Rev. 10(2), 323-339. Levine, R. (1997) “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, 35, 688-726. 156 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Levine, R. and S. Zervos (1998) “Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. American”, Economic Review, 88, 537–558. Levine, R., N. Loayza and T. Beck (2000) “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, (46), 31–77. Levine, R. (2004), Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Paper Series Mccaig, B. and T. Stengos (2005) “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Some Robustness Results”, Economics Letters, 88(3), 306–312. Müslümov, A. and G. Aras (2002) “Causality Relationship Between Capital Market Development and Economic Growth: OECD Countries Sample”, Economy Management and Finance , 17(198): 90-100. Narayan, P. and S. Narayan (2004), ”Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Imports for Fiji in a Cointegration Framework” Economic Modelling, 22: 423-438. Narayan, P. and R. Smyth (2006) “What Determines Migration Flows from Low-Income to High Income Countries? An Empirical Investigation of Fiji-U.S. Migration 1972-2001”, Contemporary Economic Policy, 24(2), 332-342. Ndikumana, L. (2005),”Financial Development, Financial Structure, and Domestic Investment: International Evidence”Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(4), 651673. Neusser, K. and M. Kugler (1998), “Manufacturing Growth and Financial Development: Evidence From Oecd Countries”, The Rewiev Of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 638-646. Obstfeld, M. (1994). Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth. American Economic Review, 84 (5), 1310–1329. Onur, S. (2005), “Relationship Between Financial Liberalisation and GDP Growth”, ZKU Social Sciences Magazine, 1(1), 138. Outrevill, J. F. (1999), “Financial Development, Human Capital and Political Stability”, UNCTAD, Discussion Paper, No: 142. Özcan, B. ve A. Arı (2011), “An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Türkey Sample”, BER Journal, 2(1), 121-142. Öztürk, N., H. K. Darıcı, F. Kesikoğlu (2011), “Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis for Developing Markets Marmara University İİBF Magazine, 30(1), 53-69. Patrick, H. T. (1966), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14, 174-189. Pesaran, M., Y. Shin and R. J. Smith (2001) “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. Rajan, R. G, and L. Zingales (1998), “Financial Dependence and Growth”, American Economic Review 88,559-586. Rioja, F. and N. Valev (2004) , “Does One Size Fit All?: A Reexamination of the Finance and Growth Relationship”, Journal of Development Economics, 74, 429-447. 157 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Rousseau, P. L. and P. Watchel (1998), “Financial Intremediation and Economic Performance Historical Evidence From Five Industrialized Countries”. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 30(4): 865-867. Rousseau, P. L. and D. Vuthipadadorn (2005), “Finance, Investment, and Growth: Time Series Evidence From 10 Asian Economies”, 27(1), 87-106. Saltoğlu B. (1998), “Econemic Growth and Development of Financial Markets”, Economy Magazine, 12(25), 13-37 Schumpeter, J. A. (1912), The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Singh, A. (1997), “Financial Liberalization, Stockmarkets and Economic Development”, Economic Journal, 107(442), 771-782. Shahbaz, M., N. Ahmed and L. Ali L (2008), “Stock market Development and Economic Growth: ARDL Causality in Pakistan”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 14, 182-195. Shan, J.Z., A.G. Morris and F. Sun (2001), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Eggand Chicken Problem”, Review of International Economics, 9(3), 443-454. Shan, J. Z. and A. Morris (2002), “Does Financial Development ‘Lead’ Economic Growth?”,International Review of Applied Economics, 16(2), 153–168 Shan, J. and Q. Jianhong (2006) “Does Financial Development Lead Economic Growth? The Case of China”, Annals of Economics and Finance, 1, 231-250. Thangavelu, S. M., A. B. Jiunn and James (2004), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Australia: An Ampirical Analysis”, Empirical Economics, 29, 247-260. Thiel, M. (2001), “ Finance and Growth: A Review of Theory and the Available Evidence”, Directorate General for Economic And Financial Affairs, Economic Paper No. 158. (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication884_en.pdf, 25.01.2012). Electronic Data Distribution System of Central http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/ Access Date: 01.06.2011 Bank of Turkish Republic, Yousif, K. A. (2002), “Financial Development And Economic Growth: Another Look At The Evidence From Developing Countries”, Rewiev Of Financial Economics, 11(2), 131-150. 158 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1321 Title A name given to the resource The Effect Of Financial Development On Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis Author Author Mehmet Mercan, Mercan Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, the effect of financial development on economic growth was searched for the most rapidly developing countries(emerging markets)(Brazil,Russia,India,China and Turkey,BRIC-T) via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1989 to 2010. Foreign direct investments and trade openness which were thought to have effects on the growth were included in the analysis.According to empirical evidence derived from the study made with panel data analysis it was found that the effect of financial development on economic growth was positive and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations.The evidence thateven foreign direct investments and openness contributed to the growth positively was also found. Keywords:Financial Development, Economic Growth, BRIC-T, Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness. Jel Codes: E49, F19, G29 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/954854b2ccb70e1b6d4336134ac3ca15.pdf cfe63acf56033a8b8da519e4c073a0f0 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Turkish Airlines, Labor, Last Accessed on 4 30, http://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-tr/kurumsal/basin-odasi/THY/is-gucu. 2012, from Turkish Airlines, Turkish Airlines’ 2010 Annual Report, Last Accessed on 4 27, 2012, from www.turkishairlines.com/tr-TR/faaliyet-raporu/2010/pdf/tr-thy2010.pdf Turkish Airlines, The Activity Report of The Board of Directors For the Period 1 January to 31 December 2011, Last Accessed on 4 28, 2012, from http://wwwdownload.thy.com/download/investor_relations/annual_reports/faaliyet_raporu_ar alik_2011.pdf. Turkish Airlines, The Number of Passengers, Last Accessed on 4 28, 2012, from http://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-tr/kurumsal/basin-odasi/THY/yolcu-sayisi. UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development, Sustainable Aviation, Last Accessed on 04 20, 2012, from http://www.desd.org.uk/UserFiles/File/new_articles/pro_body_participation/sustainable_aviat ion/Sustainable-Aviation-full-document.pdf UN Development of Economic and Social Affairs, Aviation and Sustainable Development, Last Accessed on 04 25, 2012, from http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/csd/csd9_bp9.pdf Upham, P., Maughan, J., Raper, D. And Thomas, C., (2003). Towards Sustainable Development, Earthscan Publications, 39, 115. Forecasting Carbon Emission For Turkey: Time Series Analysis Mehmet Mercan1, Etem Karakaya2 1Hakkari University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science 2Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science E-mail: mmercan48@gmail.com; mehmetmercan@hakkari.edu.tr, ekarakaya@gmail.com Abstract Within the context of sustainable development objectives, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that cause climate change was first discussed and officially negotiated at the 1992 Rio Conference, which particularly emphasised developed countries to take serious measures. Then, it was followed by the Kyoto Protocol, which specified national ghg emission reduction targets for developed countries. With Kyoto Protocol, it was decided for these countries to reduce global emissions by 5% below 1990 levels compared to 2008-2012 emission levels. Turkey became a party to the Kyoto Protocol in 2009, yet due to their special circumstances they did not take any emission reduction commitments.. Negotiations on Post-2012 emission reduction obligations are still in progress under the UNFCCC umbrella and it is expected to have emission reduction targets not only by developed countries but also by developing ones. In this regard, it is important for Turkey to estimate its future ghg emissions, if they have to take a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) for their strategy. There are various ghg emission estimations for 2020 and the results indicate different emission levels. 167 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Objective of this study is to estimate ghg emission levels for Turkey for 2020 and afterwards by using time series and regression analysis. Then, appropriate policy implications are discussed with the result of these findings. Keywords : Carbon Emissions, Time Series Analysis, climate change policy,emission projections 1.INTRODUCTION Global warming and climate change is the common problem of the whole world and humanity, concerning many sectors including industry, trade, tourism andagriculture. Acting in coordination, analyzing the elements leading to the problem is important in solving this issue. As the development levels, energy resources and population structures of countries are not homogenous, the possible emission reduction rates due to their strategies to combat global warming, applicable tools and measures taken, would also be different. Tasking the same amount of green house gas reductionto a developed country and a developing country would have negative consequences on the economy of the developing country. Turkeyhas reached a growth trend since 2002 following the introduction of strong economy programme, and is since among the group of developing countries. In line with her growing economy, greenhouse gas emission has increased, which is a source ofglobal warming.In her combat against global warming, it is important for Turkey to choose the most appropriate tools, which would not harm the economic growth, or keep the damage at a minimum level. At this point, the NationalGreenhouse Gas Emission Inventoryis the most important reference. This inventory needs to be prepared annually by each United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention (UNCCFC) signing country and submitted to the UNCCFC secretariat. Thanks to this inventory, countries are able to determine greenhouse gas emission amounts, sources and sectoral breakdown. 2. Climate Change negotiations and Turkey A member of OECD since 1961, Turkey has been included to ANNEX-I countries group, primarily responsible for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and at the same time, to ANNEX-II countries which shall be providing financial and technical assistance to reduce emissions from the underdeveloped countries. The economic development level of Turkey is generally lower than both OECD countries, and the other ANNEX II countries. It is not rational for Turkeyto have the same emission reduction commitment as economically developed countries. Therefore, Turkey has not signed the CCFC during the 1992 Rio Conference, even though she approved its principles, claiming she could not fulfil the commitments. According to the Kyoto Protocol, ratified in1997 at theConference of Parties 3 and opened to signature on 16 March 1998, countries in the ANNEX I group are obliged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to under 5% of the1990 levels, between 2008-2012. This target set by the Kyoto Protocolis being regarded as one of the most important international steps taken towards limiting the greenhouse gas emissions. During the 1997 Conference of Parties3 (COP3) in Kyoto, Turkey demanded for CCFC to be removed from both Annexes, however, as this demand was not accepted, Turkey did not become a party to Kyoto Protocol. During the Conference of Parties 6 held in the Hague in 2000, Turkey has stated that she would become a side to CCFC as an ANNEX-I country, on 168 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo condition that she is removed from ANNEX II and provided technical assistance, financial assistance and capacity development, just like the former socialist states transforming to fee market economies. As part of the decision taken at the Hague Conference, it was accepted for Turkey to be removed from ANNEX-II, by the following decision taken atConference of Parties 7 in Marrakech in 2001: “By recognizing the special conditions of Turkey compared to the other countries listed in ANNEX-I of the convention, it is decided to keep Turkey in ANNEX-I but remove form ANNEX-II, by decision number26/CP.7” (UNCCFC, 2001: 2). Following these developments, the law on Turkey to join Climate Change Framework Convention was signed on 24 May 2004 and Turkey became the 189th country to become a side to the Climate Change Framework Convention. The law on Turkey to join Kyoto Protocolwas adopted on 26 August 2009 and Turkeybecame a side to the Protocol. Not being a side to UNCCFCon the acception date (1997) of the Protocol, Turkey was not included to the Protocol ANNEX-B list, which defines the numerical emission limiting or reduction commitments of ANNEX-I Parties. Therefore, there is no numerical emission limiting or reduction commitment for Turkey during the first commitment period of the Protocol, covering the 2008-2012 period. (http://climate.cob.gov.tr/climate/AnaSayfa/BMIDCS.aspx?sflang=tr Access: 07.12.2011). 3. Global Warming Trend, Projectionsand Scenarios By looking at the data gathered from all the studies on global warming, it is possible to say that greenhouse gas emissions within the atmosphere are constantly on the rise. According to the fourth and latest assessment report published by IPCC in 2007; the temperature of the earth and oceans are increasing, glaciers are melting environmental transformation is taking place at a very fast speed. As well as the IPCC reports, studies are being held on climate change in many different countries. As an example; according to the measurements since 1958 by the Government of the United States of America National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s observatory located in Hawaii Island’s Mauna Loa Mountain (3500m) in the middle of Pacific Ocean, carbon-dioxide accumulation within the atmosphere is rising at an incredible speed (Figure 1). Other than the Mauna Loa observatory, a number of fixed stations such as Law Dome, Adalie Land, South Pole and Siple, and aeroplanes for certain heights of the atmosphere, are being constantly used to measure greenhouse gas, and increases in greenhouse gas emissions are being scientifically set forth (Özçağ, 2011. s:12). Figure 1: Development of CO2Density at the Atmosphere 169 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Source: http://www.licor.com/env/newsline/tag/keeling-curve/, Access: 13.03.2012 The saw shaped graphic at the first part of Figure 1 is being called as the Keeling curve. The reason for the saw shape is representing the plants absorbing carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere during the summer months, and giving back during the winter (Madra and Şahin, 2007:30-33). As it could be viewed from Figure 1, while the CO2 density in the atmosphere between 17501900 increased from 280 ppm (parts per million) to 285 ppm, an increase of just 5ppm, it increased from 280 ppm to 360 ppm between 1900-2000, an increase of 75 ppm. By industrialization since the 1900’s, the increase in CO2 density is 15 times the level of the previous period (http://www.brophy.net/weblog/pivot/entry.php?id=10, Access:27.11.2011). The annual CO2 emissiondue to fossil fuel consumption was 6.4 GtC (Giga Ton Carbon) in 1990, but during the 2000-2005 period, it increased to 7.2 GtC. The atmospheric density of Methane, another greenhouse gas, was 715 ppb (parts per billion) in pre-industry period, and increased to 1732 ppb during the early 1990’s, and in 2005, the figure was 1774 ppb. During the same period, nitric oxide levels rose from 215 ppb to 317 ppb (IPCC, 2007a: 2-3). According to Assessment Report 4 (AR4) by IPCC; due to the great increases of the carbondioxide emissions, the average increase in surface temperatures until the year 2100 is expected to be approximately 3 Co, or somewhere between 2 Coand 4.5 Co. In addition, many scenarios anticipate that an increase of 0.2 Co/10 years would take place for the next 20 years (Türkeş, 2007: 50). And it is claimed that sea levels would rise by 0.1 -0.9 metres between 1990 and 2100 (EEA, 2003: 94). As well as the reports prepared by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to give insight on the current situation, various scenarios are being prepared on the future of global warming and on emission reduction. IPCC’s greenhouse gas emission reductionscenarios were included in its first assessment report in 1990. These initial scenarios, prepared for the 1990-2100 period, were updated with a greater scope and published in 1992. These emissionscenarios known as “IS92”,deal with atmospheric composition and it’s effects on the climate. The aim of these studies is; to determine the expected greenhouse gas emission increases until 2100 and the related green house gas rates in the atmosphere; to determine the regional distribution of changes caused by global warming and rain regimes stemming from increased greenhouse gasses, by employing these values in various climate models, to determine land and sea temperatures and to determine the possible consequences of climate change. Following the initial scenarios, IPCC has accepted to prepare a new emissionscenario in1996. These new scenarios are named Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In IPCC’sSRES Report published in2001 and 2007, there are four different scenariofamilies. The details of these scenarios were explained in the 2001 report, and updated in the 2007 report. These scenarios are A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios. A1 Scenario Group is based on the assumption that the world economy would develop rapidly by the use of new and more effective technologies, population increase would reach its highest value at mid-centuryand then decrease. The emphasized areas in thisscenario family are such issues as the interregional intimacy due to the important decreases in regional differences on income per person, capacity growth, and increase in cultural and social relations. A1 Scenario group includes sub scenarios on different developments in energy systems such as A1FI (fossil intense energy technologies), A1T (non fossil-sourced energy use) and A1B (a balanced distribution between all sources) (IPCC, 2007a: SPM, s:18). 170 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A2 Scenario Group is based on an unbalanced and slow economic growth with a rapid increase in population, a non-homogenous world, with a structure where no special measures are taken against global warmingand environmental change issues. B1 Scenario Group, is based on the same assumptions as A1 scenarios but anticipates an economic growth which does not need over consumption of energy, with an emphasis on service sector. In this scenario, clean technologies based on more effective use of sources shall be used. And finally, B2 Scenario Group; it has an approach where economic, social and environmental capacitiesare mainly solved at a local scale (IPCC, 2007a: SPM, s:18). IPCC scenarios’ anticipations on world population and economy are given in the below table: Table1: Economic Estimates of SRES 2001 Scenarios Per Capita Income Population Gross Product (Billion People) (Trillion Dollar) (Developed/Developing Countries) 2050 2100 2050 2100 2050 2100 A1 8,70 7,04 164,5 518,8 2,8 1,5 A2 11,29 14,71 111,3 248,5 6,6 4,2 B1 8,7 7,04 135,6 328,4 3,6 1,8 B2 9,8 10,3 75,7 198,7 4 3 Scenario Source: http: //www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/data/allscen.xls, Data: 27.11.2011. In the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) prepared by IPCC, carbon-dioxide andothergreenhouse gasemissions are predicted to be increased at important levels during the next century. According to the report, global temperature would rise by 0.2 C 0per 10 years, for the next 20 years (IPCC, 2007a: 12). Temperature increases and sea level changes projected for the 21st century are given in Table 1.3. Table 2: SRES 2090-2099 Estimations by 1980-1990 Data Temperature Change Scenario Change in Sea Level (C 0 ) (mt) Estimate Range B1 1.8 1.1 - 2.9 0.18 - 0.38 A1T 2.4 1.4 - 3.8 0.20 - 0.45 B2 2.4 1.4 - 3.8 0.20 - 0.43 A1B 2.8 1.7 - 4.4 0.21 - 0.48 171 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A2 3.4 2.0 - 5.4 0.23 - 0.51 A1FI 4.0 2.4 - 6.4 0.26 - 0.59 Source : IPCC, 2007a. SPM, s.13. According to (B1) scenario where global warming level is the lowest, it is estimated that the temperature increase in 2090-2099 period would be 1.8 C0when compared to 1980-1990 period. The temperature increase during the period in subject is expected to be in the range of 1.1 C0and 2.9 C0. According to this scenario, it is calculated that the sea level would rise between 0.18 - 0.38 metres. And according to the A1FI scenario where global warming level is at its highest, world surface temperature isexpected to rise by 4 C0, while an increase of 0.26 - 0.59 metres is anticipated in the sea level. This has been shown in Figure 1.6. Figure 2: Change Trend in Sea Levels Source: IPCC, 2007a. s:409-410. In the first part of Figure 2, changes in the sea level based on 1980-1999 are given. The period covering the years 1800 - 1870 is an estimation, while the figures for the period 1870–2000 is based on apparatus measurements (Tide Gauge). Sea level change values for the 2000–2100 period have been estimated by using the SRES A1B scenario. The second part of the panel has been acquired by using the annual mean sea level values. Values for 1870 - 1950 period have been extracted from Church and White (2006)’s work, while post-1950 values have been extracted from Holgate and Woodworth (2004), and Leuliette et. al. (2004)’s work, and they are within 90%confidence interval. According to SRES Scenarios, the increase in atmosphericdensity of carbon-dioxide emission, increases the acidity levels of the oceans. According to estimates, PH values of the oceans would decrease during the 21st Century by 0.14 and 0.35. Lowered pH values of the oceans means an increase in the acidity levels. With an increased acidity level and temperature, oceans would lose their ability to absorb carbon over time (IPCC, 2007a. SPM, s:14). 4. Worldwide Trend and Reasons for Increase of Greenhouse Gas Causing Climate Change Humankind is faced with the enigma of global warming and climate change, by using the nature to acquire the raw materials for his never ending demands, using fossil sourced energy 172 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo during production phase, wastes released to the nature during production and consumption phases, increase in world population, damages occurred to the environment and forests. When evaluating these situations as a general, global warmingandclimate change issues are human sourced issues. In Table3, human sourced distribution of greenhouse gas emissions per country, and the total amount in a world scale in 2009 have been given. As Table 3 indicates, the top five countries with highest greenhouse gas emissions are China, America, India, Russia and Japan. These countries have a total emission of 16,235 Million Tonnes of CO2e, and their share in total greenhouse gas emission is 51.9%. Turkeyon the other hand, had a CO2e emission of 256 Million Tonnes in2009, and in total greenhouse gas emissions, Turkey’s share is eight per mille (% 0.8). Table 3: Countries with High CO2 Emission Levels in 2009 (Mt CO2e)* 1-China 6,831 12-Mexico 399 2-America 5,195 13-Australia 394 3-India 1,585 14-Italy 389 4-Russia 1,532 15-Indonesia 376 5-Japan 1,092 16-South Africa 369 6-Germany 750 17-France 354 7-Iran 533 18-Brazil 337 8-Canada 520 19-Poland 286 9-South Korea 515 20-Spain 283 10-England 465 21-Ukraine 256.39 11- Saudi Arabia 410 22-Turkey 256.31 World Total 28,999 Milyon Ton CO2e Çin Amerika Hindistan Rusya Japonya Almanya İran Kanada Güney Kore İngiltere Suudi Arabistan Meksika Austuralya İtalya Endonezya Güney Afrika Fransa Brezilya Polonya İspanya Ukrayna Türkiye 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 173 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Source : IEA, KWES, 2011, s. 48-57. Values in the table have been created by the authors. *:Including land use, land use differences, and green house gas reductionchanges of the forestry sector. Humanity’s will to damage the nature for a wealthier life, as well as the above mentioned human sourced factors, are leading to global warmingand climate change. Among the human sourced environmental issues, we may count fossil sourced energy use, industrialization and urbanization, population increase, land use changes and agriculture-stock breeding activities. 5. Carbon EmissionScenarios In this part of the study, before starting with thescenarioimplementations, 2011 macroeconomic variables data for Turkey and general and sectoral carbon emission projections for the 2011-2020 period will be given. Figure 3: 1990-2009* TotalEmissions (Mt CO2e) 400 349.6 380.0 350 312.3 297.0 300 286.1 278.1 250 366.5 369.7 329.9 302.8 237.5 200 187.0 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1995 1990 150 Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse GasEmission Inventory Reportdata have been consolidated by the authors. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf. As Figure 3 indicates, Turkey’s carbon emission of 187 Mt CO2e in 1990 has increased by 58% and became 297 Mt CO2e in 2000. The rate of increase has slowed down since 2000and it became 369,7 Mt CO2e in 2009, an increase of 24%. Since 2000’s, with the introduction of “transition to the strong economy program”, there have been great increases in GNP, export and import values (for instance; export increase 255%, import 154%andGNP 471% running, and 34%fixed), but still, emissionincrease was highly reduced in 2000-2009, compared to 1990-2000. We may assume that this decrease was contributed by efficient use of energy, use of renewable energy, and use of natural gas as fuel type. In Figure 4, greenhouse gas emissions per sector to be used for the 2009 analysis are given. These values were prepared by TUİK (2011) for the “NationalGreenhouse GasEmissionInventory Report”. Electricity production sector (EL) is leading the table with a 93,3 Mt CO2e emission, and makes up 25% of the total emissions. Coal mining (CO) sector is in second place with 71,1 Mt CO2e emissionand makes up for 19% of the total emissions. Sectoral transportation (TR) on the other hand has an emission of 45,2 Mt CO2e. When we look at the top three sectors; electricity production, coal mining and transportation sectors produce 57% of total emissions. 2002 data indicate that, electricity production, coal mining and transportation sectors are again occupying the top three places in emissions. 174 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 4: 2009 and 2002* Secoral Emissions (Mt CO2e) 100 93.3 90 80 2009: 369,6 Mt CO2e 71.1 70 45.2 46.9 31.7 55.1 7.8 6.9 40 35.0 30 24.5 20 26.525.5 20 10 2002: 286,3 Mt CO2e 50 50 30 72.3 70 60 60 40 80 14.9 0 36.3 20.5 19.7 6.0 5.3 10 11.5 0 AG CO PG RP EL CE PA IS TR OE AG CO PG RP EL CE PA IS TR OE 2009 Sectoral Emissions (369,6 Mt Co2e) Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse Gas EmissionInventory Report data have been created and classified by the authors per sector. *:Emission values exclude Lulucf. Considering Turkey’s TUİK (2011) National Greenhouse Gas EmissionInventory Report,average greenhouse gas increase rates for the 1990-2009 period is 97.64%and annually 5.13%.With the help of 2002 and 2009 sectoral greenhouse gas distribution, calculated from “National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report” in Figure 4, we may be able to calculate sectoral greenhouse gas distributionfor 1990. If we apply the 5.13% increase for the 1990-2009 period to the calculated emissionvalues, we may acquire the sectoral and general greenhouse gas emissions for the period leading up to 2020, which is given in Table 4. Table 4: Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2e)* of Sectors per Year AG CO PG 175 RP EL CE PA IS TR OE Total 1990 16,0 36,0 3,9 3,5 47,2 13,4 12,9 7,5 22,9 23,7 187,0 1991 16,8 37,8 4,1 3,6 49,6 14,1 13,5 7,9 24,1 25,0 196,6 1992 17,7 39,7 4,3 3,8 52,1 14,8 14,2 8,3 25,2 26,2 206,3 1993 18,5 41,5 4,5 4,0 54,5 15,5 14,9 8,7 26,4 27,4 215,9 1994 19,3 43,4 4,7 4,2 56,9 16,2 15,5 9,1 27,6 28,6 225,5 1995 20,1 45,2 4,9 4,4 59,3 16,9 16,2 9,5 28,8 29,8 235,1 1996 21,0 47,1 5,1 4,5 61,8 17,5 16,9 9,8 29,9 31,1 244,7 1997 21,8 48,9 5,3 4,7 64,2 18,2 17,5 10,2 31,1 32,3 254,3 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1998 22,6 50,8 5,5 4,9 66,6 18,9 18,2 10,6 32,3 33,5 263,9 1999 23,4 52,6 5,7 5,1 69,1 19,6 18,8 11,0 33,5 34,7 273,5 2000 24,3 54,5 5,9 5,2 71,5 20,3 19,5 11,4 34,7 35,9 283,1 2001 25,1 56,3 6,1 5,4 73,9 21,0 20,2 11,8 35,8 37,2 292,8 2002 25,9 58,1 6,3 5,6 76,3 21,7 20,8 12,2 37,0 38,4 302,4 2003 26,7 60,0 6,5 5,8 78,8 22,4 21,5 12,5 38,2 39,6 312,0 2004 27,5 61,8 6,7 6,0 81,2 23,1 22,2 12,9 39,4 40,8 321,6 2005 28,4 63,7 6,9 6,1 83,6 23,7 22,8 13,3 40,5 42,0 331,2 2006 29,2 65,5 7,1 6,3 86,0 24,4 23,5 13,7 41,7 43,3 340,8 2007 30,0 67,4 7,4 6,5 88,5 25,1 24,1 14,1 42,9 44,5 350,4 2008 30,8 69,2 7,6 6,7 90,9 25,8 24,8 14,5 44,1 45,7 360,0 2009 31,7 71,1 7,8 6,9 93,3 26,5 25,5 14,9 45,2 46,9 369,7 2010 32,5 72,9 8,0 7,0 95,7 27,2 26,1 15,3 46,4 48,1 379,3 2011 33,3 74,8 8,2 7,2 98,2 27,9 26,8 15,6 47,6 49,4 388,9 2012 34,1 76,6 8,4 7,4 100,6 28,6 27,4 16,0 48,8 50,6 398,5 2013 35,0 78,5 8,6 7,6 103,0 29,3 28,1 16,4 49,9 51,8 408,1 2014 35,8 80,3 8,8 7,7 105,4 29,9 28,8 16,8 51,1 53,0 417,7 2015 36,6 82,2 9,0 7,9 107,9 30,6 29,4 17,2 52,3 54,2 427,3 2016 37,4 84,0 9,2 8,1 110,3 31,3 30,1 17,6 53,5 55,5 436,9 2017 38,3 85,9 9,4 8,3 112,7 32,0 30,8 18,0 54,6 56,7 446,5 2018 39,1 87,7 9,6 8,5 115,2 32,7 31,4 18,3 55,8 57,9 456,2 2019 39,9 89,6 9,8 8,6 117,6 33,4 32,1 18,7 57,0 59,1 465,8 2020 40,7 91,4 10,0 8,8 120,0 34,1 32,7 19,1 58,2 60,3 475,4 Source: TUİK (2011) From the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data, sectoral emissions have been calculated by the authors, and simulation has been applied.*: Emission values exclude Lulucf. 176 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo As Table 4 indicates, 2009 emission rate was 369,7 Mt CO2e, and according to the 1990-2009 increase scenario of 5.13% (As of 2012, the latest emissionwas given for 2009), this emission rate is anticipated to become 475,4 Mt CO2e in 2020. This is much lower than 604 Mt CO2e, foreseen by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (Ministry of Forestry and Hydraulic Works) by using the MAED/ENPEP model, however, it is in accordance with the 421 Mt CO2e value, foreseen by the European Commission using PRIMES model. Considering that the MAED/ENPEP model does not reflect the energy assumptions reality and that the model results are different than the actual values, it would be more realistic to use European Commission’s PRIMES model. Figure 5: Sektoral and General Emission Forecasts* for the 1990-2009 Period, According to 5.13%EmissionIncrease (Mt CO2e) 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 150.0 Source: TUİK (2011) National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data have been consolidated by the authors. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf. The increase in greenhouse gas is slower in 2000-2009 when compared to the 1990-2000 period. In 2000-2009 period, greenhouse gasincrease rate was 24,45%, while annual increase rate was 2,71%’dir. If we were to estimate 2020 emissions based on annual increase rates of 2,71%, we reach the findings given in Table 7.3. As Table 5 indicates, 2009 emission rate was 369,7 Mt CO2e, and by using the 2000-2009 period’s 2.71% increase scenario, this emission value would reach 458,4 Mt CO2e by 2020. Table 5: Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2e)* of Sectors per Year AG CO PG RP EL 177 CE PA IS TR OE Toplam 2000 25,4 57,1 6,2 5,5 75,0 21,3 20,5 11,9 36,3 37,7 297,0 2001 26,1 58,7 6,4 5,7 77,0 21,9 21,0 12,3 37,3 38,7 305,1 2002 26,8 60,2 6,6 5,8 79,1 22,4 21,6 12,6 38,3 39,7 313,2 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2003 27,5 61,8 6,7 6,0 81,1 23,0 22,1 12,9 39,3 40,8 321,2 2004 28,2 63,3 6,9 6,1 83,1 23,6 22,7 13,2 40,3 41,8 329,3 2005 28,9 64,9 7,1 6,3 85,2 24,2 23,2 13,6 41,3 42,8 337,4 2006 29,6 66,4 7,2 6,4 87,2 24,8 23,8 13,9 42,3 43,8 345,4 2007 30,3 68,0 7,4 6,6 89,2 25,3 24,4 14,2 43,3 44,9 353,5 2008 31,0 69,5 7,6 6,7 91,3 25,9 24,9 14,5 44,2 45,9 361,6 2009 31,7 71,1 7,8 6,9 93,3 26,5 25,5 14,9 45,2 46,9 369,7 2010 32,4 72,6 7,9 7,0 95,4 27,1 26,0 15,2 46,2 47,9 377,7 2011 33,0 74,2 8,1 7,1 97,4 27,7 26,6 15,5 47,2 49,0 385,8 2012 33,7 75,7 8,3 7,3 99,4 28,2 27,1 15,8 48,2 50,0 393,9 2013 34,4 77,3 8,4 7,4 101,5 28,8 27,7 16,2 49,2 51,0 401,9 2014 35,1 78,8 8,6 7,6 103,5 29,4 28,2 16,5 50,2 52,0 410,0 2015 35,8 80,4 8,8 7,7 105,5 30,0 28,8 16,8 51,2 53,1 418,1 2016 36,5 82,0 8,9 7,9 107,6 30,5 29,4 17,1 52,2 54,1 426,2 2017 37,2 83,5 9,1 8,0 109,6 31,1 29,9 17,5 53,1 55,1 434,2 2018 37,9 85,1 9,3 8,2 111,7 31,7 30,5 17,8 54,1 56,1 442,3 2019 38,6 86,6 9,4 8,3 113,7 32,3 31,0 18,1 55,1 57,2 450,4 2020 39,3 88,2 9,6 8,5 115,7 32,9 31,6 18,4 56,1 58,2 458,4 Source: TUİK (2011) From the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data, sectoral emissions have been calculated by the authors, and simulation has been applied.*: Emission values exclude Lulucf. Figure 6: Emission Forecasts for the 1990-2009 Period According to 5.13% EmissionIncrease * (Mt CO2e) 178 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 250.0 Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse Gas EmissionInventory Report data have been consolidated by the authors. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf. 6. Carbon Emission Projections In this part of the study, greenhouse gasemission projections would be made by mathematical models. By using the 1990-2009 period greenhouse gas amounts published by TUİK, linear, parabolic, cubic andexponential forecasts have been made and given in Table6. It is clearly seen that different methods produce different emissionvalues. Table 6: Greenhouse GasEmission Projections (Mt CO2e)* Carbon Emission Projections Year Linear Model Parabolic Model Exponential Model 2010 382,65 386,54 398,16 2011 392,32 397,30 412,38 2012 401,98 408,17 427,11 2013 411,64 419,14 442,37 2014 421,31 430,20 458,17 2015 430,97 441,37 474,54 2016 440,63 452,64 491,49 2017 450,29 464,00 509,05 2018 459,96 475,47 527,24 2019 469,62 487,04 546,07 2020 479,28 498,71 565,58 2021 488,95 510,48 585,78 179 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2022 498,61 522,34 606,71 2023 508,27 534,31 628,38 2024 517,94 546,38 650,83 2025 527,60 558,55 674,08 2026 537,26 570,82 698,16 2027 546,93 583,19 723,10 2028 556,59 595,66 748,93 2029 566,25 608,23 775,69 2030 575,92 620,90 803,40 Estimating Equations: LinearEstimating Equation: y = 9,6632x + 179,73 R² = 0,96 ParabolicEstimating Equation: y = 0,0501x2 + 8,612x + 183,59 R² = 0,96 CubicEstimating Equation: y = 0,0238x3 - 0,6996x2 + 15,064x + 170,94 R² = 0,96 ExponentialEstimating Equation: y = 190,52e0,0351x R² = 0,96 Not:Mathematica and Excel Programs have been used for the estimations made by 1990-2009 data. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf. As Table 6 indicates, according to the results reached by the help of linearequation; Turkey’s greenhouse gas emission would be 430MtCO2e in 2015, 479 MtCO2e in 2020 and575 MtCO2e in2030. According to the results reached by the help of parabolicequation; Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be 441MtCO2e in 2015, 498 MtCO2e in 2020 and620 MtCO2e in 2030. And according to the findings reached by the help of exponential equation; Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be474MtCO2e in 2020, 565MtCO2e in 2015 and 803 MtCO2e in 2030. The acquired findings are much less than the 604 Mt CO2e value forecast by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (Ministry of Forestry and Hydraulic Works) by using the MAED/ENPEP model, however, they are in accordance with the 421 Mt CO2e value, foreseen by the European Commission using PRIMES model. Considering that the MAED/ENPEP model does not reflect the energy assumptions reality and that the model results are different than the actual values, it would be more realistic to use European Commission’s PRIMES model. 7. Result and Discussion 180 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo There is no emission reduction commitment for the first Kyoto period covering the 1998-2012 period for Turkey, who is on the full membership process for European Union. However, Turkey is expected to be committed for the Post-Kyoto period covering post-2012. Considering that emission reductions would have economic costs, anticipation of emission trend, the level of commitment and choosing the best policy for emission reduction would be highly important for the decision makers. In our study, the anticipated emission trend for Turkeyhas been given by the help of different mathematical models. According to the findings reached by the help of linear equation; Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be, 430MtCO2e in 2015, 479 MtCO2e in 2020 and 575 MtCO2e in 2030. This result is in line with the 421 Mt CO2e value for 2020, forecasted by the European Commission using the PRIMES model. Even though different methods produce different results, it is thought that the results acquired by the linear equation are more consistent. REFERENCES Church, J. A., and N. J. White, (2006) “A 20th Century Acceleration in Global Sea-Level Rise”. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L01602, doi: 10.1029/2005GL024826. EEA (2006) “Environmental Statement”, European Environment Agency Report No 8/2006, Copenhagen, Denmark. EEA (2007) “Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe 2007” European Environment Agency Report, October 2007, Denmark, (Forthcoming) EEA (2011) “Greenhause Gas Emission Trends and Projections in Europe 2011: The Fourth Report”, European Environment Agency, Report Nu: 4, 2011. Holgate, S. J., and P. L. Woodworth, (2004) Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07305, doi:10.1029/2004GL019626. IPCC (2007) “Climate change 2007: Mitigation.”, Contribution of Working group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz, O. R. Davidson, P. R. Bosch, R. Dave, L. A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC (2007a) “The Physical Science Basis”, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork. IPCC (2007b) “Climate Change 2007: Mitigation”, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork. Keeling, C. D. ve Whorf, T. P. (2005) “Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppmv) Derived From in Situ Air Samples Collected at Mauna Loa Observatory”, Hawaii. Leuliette, E. W., R. S. Nerem, and G. T. Mitchum, 2004: Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason Altimeter Data to Construct A Continuous Record of Mean Sea Level Change. Mar. Geodesy, 27(1– 2), 79–94 Madra, Ö. ve Şahin, Ü. (2007) “Küresel Isınma ve İklim Krizi”, İdil Yayıncılık, İstanbul, 2007. Özçağ, M. (2011) “İnsan Kaynaklı İklim Değişikliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz”, Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bil. Ens. Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Aydın, s.12. www.tuik.gov.tr http://www.licor.com/env/newsline/tag/keeling-curve/, Access: 13.03.201 181 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1242 Title A name given to the resource Forecasting Carbon Emission For Turkey: Time Series Analysis Author Author Mehmet , Mercan Abstract A summary of the resource. Within the context of sustainable development objectives, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that cause climate change was first discussed and officially negotiated at the 1992 Rio Conference, which particularly emphasised developed countries to take serious measures. Then, it was followed by the Kyoto Protocol, which specified national ghg emission reduction targets for developed countries. With Kyoto Protocol, it was decided for these countries to reduce global emissions by 5% below 1990 levels compared to 2008-2012 emission levels. Turkey became a party to the Kyoto Protocol in 2009, yet due to their special circumstances they did not take any emission reduction commitments.. Negotiations on Post-2012 emission reduction obligations are still in progress under the UNFCCC umbrella and it is expected to have emission reduction targets not only by developed countries but also by developing ones. In this regard, it is important for Turkey to estimate its future ghg emissions, if they have to take a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) for their strategy. There are various ghg emission estimations for 2020 and the results indicate different emission levels.Objective of this study is to estimate ghg emission levels for Turkey for 2020 and afterwards by using time series and regression analysis. Then, appropriate policy implications are discussed with the result of these findings. Keywords : Carbon Emissions, Time Series Analysis, climate change policy,emission projections Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/2b71d5651bb4f45bcf65e845a26b06f0.pdf 8f6855b07ba48329a24f8ce89808f188 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Garrod,B. Ve Fyall,A. (1998) “Beyond the Rhetoric of Sustainable Tourism?”, Tourism Management, Vol:19, No:3, pp.213-224 Kılıç, S., (2008). Çevre Etiği: Ortaya Çıkışı, Gelişimi ve Sonuçları, Orion Kitabevi, Ankara. Kumar,B. Ve Kumar,P. (2011), Green Economy: Policy Framework for Sustainable Development, Current Science, Vol. 100, No. 7, 10 April 2011, pp.960-962 Luke, T.W. (2002) Deep Ecology: Living As If Nature Mattered, Organization & Environmet, Volume 15, Issue 2, pp. 178-186 Metzner;R. (1994) Ekoloji Çağı, Derleyen Günseli Tamkoç, Derin Ekoloji, Ege Yayıncılık, İzmir Mutlu, A., (2008). Ekoloji ve Yönetim: Toplumsal Ekoloji ve Sürdürülebilir Gelişmenin Karşılaştırılması, Turhan Kitabevi, Ankara. Nemli, E., (2004). Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma: Şirketlerin Çevresel ve Sosyal Yaklaşımları, Filiz Kitabevi, İstanbul. Otegbulu, A.C. (2011) Economics of Green Design and Environmental Sustainability, Journal of Sustainable Development Vol. 4, No. 2; April 2011, pp.240-248 Türkiye Çevre Sorunları Vakfı (1991) Ortak Geleceğimiz, TÇSV Yayınları, Ankara Uslu, O. (1997) Ekonomik ve Ekolojik Uygulamalarda Sürüdürülebilir Kalkınmanın Yeri, Sürdürülebilir Kalkınmanın Uygulaması, TÇV, Aralık WTO (1998) Guide for Local Authorities on Developing Sustainable Tourism, World Tourism Organization, Madrid http://www.guncelonkal.com/PDF/cevre_etigi_maddesi.pdf http://www.etik.gov.tr/makaleler/abdulkadir_mahmutoglu.pdf The Effect Of Religion On The Process Of Sustainable Development Economy (In Terms Of Thrift) Mehmet Masum Ocak1, Mehmet Günay2, Gülenaz Selçuk1 1Celal Bayar University, Faculty of Education Lecturer, Manisa. Turkey, 2Celal Bayar University, Faculty of Science-Literature, Asst. Prof. Dr , Manisa, Turkey, Emails: masumocak@hotmail.com, mehmetgunay2006@hotmail.com, gselcuk@hotmail.com “We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children.” An Indian proverb. Abstract In this study, we have tried to emphasize that from the perspective of sustainable development economy, the factor of religion affects communal incidents in our social life. 318 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Since religion, a need for a person, who is a member of a community, presents itself as a reality of a society as well. Sustainable development aims at protecting and exploiting natural resources in the most effective way. The concept of sustainable development put forward with no hesitation entails its implementation in all societies throughout the world and requires governments to take responsibilities for this matter. Sustainable development gives priority to a person’s health, happiness and adaptation to his environment. It is out of question to separate or isolate religion, one of the most prominent features of life forms, from the social, cultural or economic dynamics of a community. Our religion, Islam, which regards happiness of individuals and societies as essential in the world and hereafter, sets rules to live our lives in harmony and in a well-balanced way. It also orders us to sensibly spend what we have earned according to the limits of thrift. Everyone is going to be asked to answer the questions of how he made a living, where and how he spent it. While spending his money, he is required to take his needs, instead of his wills, into consideration and not to spend too much or waste it by staying away from any extreme expenditure. Apart from the warning against spending on the areas forbidden by the religion, there is insistence on being thrifty and frugal. Extravagance/waste is one of the most serious dangers that a sustainable development economy can ever confront. Since as an outcome of waste, individuals and naturally communities will start to lose all the facilities and things they have already possessed, and face the challenges and deprivations ensued from their absence. They will turn out to be a dependent population. Today, while people are starving in many parts of the world, it is hard even to state the limits of the waste that some of us have caused. We should not neglect that we can make use of our religion’s, Islam’s, orders and prohibitions in order to stop waste and encourage to be frugal in the work process of sustainable development economy. We have tried to explain in detail the hadiths, our Prophet’s statements, and verses which are the essential references of our religion. Keywords: Thrift, Religion, Verse, Hadith, Sustainable Development, Waste 1.INTRODUCTION Sustainable development has the meaning of programming today’s and tomorrow’s life and development in such a way that it maintains the balance between humans and nature, responds to the needs of next generations and facilitates their development without depleting natural resources. Sustainable development is a concept with social, ecological, economic, spatial and cultural dimensions. This is a process of progress that increases life standards by focusing on such subjects which aim to diminish the disaster risks as economical development and preserving ecological system along with socio-cultural progress, political stability and determination. While defining sustainable development, the most significant factor may be the balance between ‘today’ and ‘tomorrow’. For the generations of both today and the future, it is of importance to reach economical, social and ecological aims, that is, developmental aims in awell-balanced way. Long-term planning and thinking. Each person has the duties and responsibilities to his Creator, prophet, the religion he serves, himself, spouse, children, parents, siblings, natural environment and society. A person 319 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo is going to be questioned for what he has done with his eye, ear, hand, foot and heart along with all the knowledge, actions, spiritual and physical blessings given to him. “Our religion taking individual and social peace and happiness as a basis sets rules to live life in a balanced way and orders to properly use what we have earned with respect to the criteria of thrift. Each person is going to be asked how he has earned his life and what he has spent his savings on. He has to consider his needs rather than desires while sending his savings. Expenditure is banned in the areas prohibited by Allah; and the principle of not wasting is set for the situations permitted by the religion”. (Ergenekon, 1996) Our religion is such a religion that never permits abuse or colonialism as extreme wealth and luxurious expenditure are banned by Islam. Prevention of expenditure on luxury could not encourage capital accumulation as much as it was in the west since such transfers of financial assets as offerings and alms forestalled getting extremely rich and maintained a well-balanced fiscal distribution in society. Allah states in one verse “ Your riches and your children may be but a trial: whereas Allah, with Him is the highest, Reward.”.(at-Teğabun, 64/15) This verse demonstrates that property is sedition. Here, sedition means a matter of testing. Otherwise, if its literal meaning was taken into consideration, it would be necessary to get rid of world’s assets. However, our Almighty Lord orders Muslims to work for the world as much as they should do for hereafter. Displaying property as sedition, He implies the anarchy and depression caused by not being able to use it to good advantage. In one account, while walking, our Prophet and his friends came across with a young man working very ambitiously. When some said “I wish this young man was working for something related to hereafter instead of worldly”, our Prophet said: “Don’t say so; if he is working in order not to go around begging or need someone’s help, he is on Allah’s track. If he is making a living for his old parents or children, he is still on Allah’s track. However, if he is working to show off or swing the lead, he is on devil’s track.” Spending the physical and spiritual belongings in vain is called extravagance. Therefore, if a person unduly spends his money, property, time or natural resources, what he does is extravagance. In other words, it is also called waste. Millions or billions of dollars goes for nothing owing to extravagance, the varieties and damages of which are too many to count. Therefore, a man who witnesses people and children starving does not choose food, throw bread into the bin, waste food. Besides, considering the cities and countries in shortage of water does not waste energy. As being aware of the people who cannot make ends meet, he does not care luxurious goods and does not waste his money. Varieties of waste: waste in food and drink, clothes, time, information, health, energy resources, etc. Thrift is necessary not only for particular social strata but all individuals of a society as well. For this reason, thrift spreading in all social strata allows the middle class to get stronger. “Three significant tenets of Islam played an important role in the course of economic development. The first of these tenets is the basis that all the things on the Earth are created for all humans. The second important principle is the one that prevents luxury and grandeur (the principle that bans the building to show off). Finally the third principle is the one that 320 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo ascertains the necessity of learning and teaching all kinds of science and knowledge. It also underscores that keeping such knowledge hidden is forbidden by the religion”. (Bilgiseven, 1987) The Almighty Allah has created all the beauties and blessings for us. We have been trusted with all these beauties and blessings given by Allah. All the blessings Allah has granted on us such as life, health, children, property, title, etc. could be test items. We are going to be questioned if we wasted them and how we used those blessings. Regarding to our topic, Allah says “Then on that day you shall most certainly be questioned about the boons.” (Tekasür, 102/8) On this topic, our prophet also said that: On Judgement Day, no one can move away from his tracks unless he is questioned about where he spent his life, his actions, how he made a living, what he spent his money on, how he used his body and health (Tirmizi, Kıyame, 1) One of the tenets our glorious religion, Islam, adopts is being economical and moderate. Being economical and moderate amounts to one being prudent about everything including spending, talking, drinking and eating. “The opposite is waste. Waste means going to the extremes in any subject, deviating from the right and true, transgressing the limits, spending the chances and assets on unnecessary things or abundantly.” (Yazır, 1992) In short, waste means spending the blessings a person possesses unduly and extremely ( Şamil, İslam Ans. “İsraf” ) In Islam, waste is banned by verses and hadiths. “O Children of Adam! wear your beautiful apparel at every time and place of prayer: eat and drink: But waste not by excess, for Allah loveth not the wasters”. (Araf, 7/31 ) “And give to the near of kin his due and (to) the needy and the wayfarer, and do not squander wastefully. Surely the squanderers are the fellows of the Shaitans and the Shaitan is ever ungrateful to his Lord. ”( İsra, 17/27 ) Verses clearly display this ban. The verse describes waste as ingratitude to Allah and the ones doing so as Satan’s sibling, which proves how horrible ‘extravagance’ or ‘being lavish’ is. Our prophet says “Eat, drink, wear and give alms without being arrogant or without wasting” (Buhari, Libas, 1) This hadith attracting our attention gives an opinion about how meticuluous Islam is on the subject of ‘waste’. Our prophet once visited Sa’d, one of his friends. Meanwhile, Sa’d was performing his ablution. When Resulüllah noticed that he was using water more than necessary, he asked what the waste was that. When Sa’d asked whether there was waste in performin ablution, our prophet responded “Yes, even if you perform your ablution in flowing river” (İbn Mace, Taharet, 48). Our religion asked us not to overuse water even from a flowing river even for religious services. The Almighty Allah created everything in balance. Humans must be moderate in all areas of life including expenditure. Islam takes the necessity as a basis in spending money, goods and property; and bans spending in vain. Expenditure must be correlated with the necessity, not income. Even if our income incresases, our expenditure should not go beyond the limits of our necessity. Just like in all areas, Islam orders to be moderate by staying away from the extremes of being lavish or stingy. In our religion, this criteria is regarded one of the features of a perfect Muslim. 321 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo As regards to the topic, Allah says: “Make not thy hand tied (like a niggard's) to thy neck, nor stretch it forth to its utmost reach, so that thou become blameworthy and destitute.” ( İsra, 17/29 ) In another verse: ” Those who, when they spend, are not extravagant and not niggardly, but hold a just (balance) between those (extremes).” (Furkan, 25/67 ). In the verse, while being mean and lavish is criticised, being moderate is praised; and this attitude is mentioned is one of the features of Allah’s slaves. When we look at the verses and hadiths, it is clear that we are asked not to waste our assets, goods, properties while buying what we need. And this way of acting is emphasized as one of the features of a perfect Muslim. “O Children of Adam! wear your beautiful apparel at every time and place of prayer: eat and drink: But waste not by excess, for Allah loveth not the wasters.” stated in Araf 7/31. In the verse, on the one hand a person is ordered to eat and drink and on the other hand not go to extremes in those actions. In other words, just like in everything, there must be a moderate way even for eating and drinking. “He may say (boastfully): "Wealth have I squandered in abundance !. " Thinketh he that none beholdeth him?" (Beled, 6-7) As stated in the verse below, negligent people ignore a simple fact: Our Holy Lord has granted countless blessings to humans including flesh, air, food, the devices they use. Whatever is on the earth and heaven along with all visible and invisible grants and livelihoods is at his disposal. A man’s duty is to use what has been given to him in a moderate way and not to waste In the Koran, Allah warns that humans are going to be questioned about the blessings given to them in hereafter with the question “Then on that day you shall most certainly be questioned about the boons.” (Tekasür, 102/8) In the Koran, Allah says, “O Children of Adam! wear your beautiful apparel at every time and place of prayer: eat and drink: But waste not by excess, for Allah loveth not the wasters.” (Araf, 7/31) He also states the believers should benefit the blessings and forbids their waste. However, it should be underscored that not wasting does not amount to rejecting the wealth, limiting the expenditure on the areas that Allah gives permission or being unfair to ourselves. The single criteria here should be whether the expenditure has been for Allah’s will or not. Muslims both thank for the blessings and be very careful about not wasting. Considering the verse, “Those who, when they spend, are not extravagant and not niggardly, but hold a just (balance) between those (extremes).” (Furkan, 25/67), they use food, water, clothes, things provided by technology as much as they need. 2.CONCLUSION Extravagance harms both an individual and the whole society. This leads our family and nation to be poor. A lavish person always tries to spend money recklessly. As he is used to spending money a lot, when he is short of money, he tries illegal ways to make money. Sometimes, he becomes a burden on the shoulders of his family, society and country since he is in despair help of the others. It is quite often to see such occasions in society. Wasteful people and nations get disappointed sooner or later. They find themselves in the abyss of despair and hopelessness. 322 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Not only individuals, countries and nations could be prodigal as well. Prodigality even depletes seemingly countless troves. I could deplete forests, ores, water and sources of petrol and electricity. The exhaustion of such reserves causes those nations to be in need of the others. The negative effects of waste become more influential in today’s financial life. In the old days when economies depend on agriculture, the discrepancy between welfare and poverty was not as visible as it is a present. In today’s industrialised communities which are transforming into communities of information, there are people who live far beyond the level welfare along with the ones trying to survive in abject poverty. Over industrialism, arms race and insatiable greed of the colonialists to find more raw materials damaged the agricultural areas which have a vital importance on the Earth. Therefore, the West’s finances which currently depend on over consumption and waste confront dire straits. Such troubles affect all the economies in the globalized world. Although the west have managed to maintain financial welfare so far, they admit that at present resources are limited; water and food with a crucial role in conserving prosperity have always been wasted recklessly and from now on humans do not have the luxury of squandering. For a society to survive, individuals have duties to the community they live in. Besides it is essential to keep social balance and peace and to ward off any factor that may cause tension among people. Sustainable development aims to the protection and effectively use of natural resources. The concept of sustainable development put forward with no hesitation entails its implementation in all societies throughout the world and requires governments to take responsibilities for this matter. . It is out of question to separate or isolate religion, one of the most prominent features of life forms, from the social, cultural or economic dynamics of a community. It is out of question to separate or isolate religion, one of the most prominent features of life forms, from the social, cultural or economic dynamics of a community. Our religion Islam, focusing on the peace of individuals and society both in the world and hereafter, sets rules to live life in a well-balanced way, and orders us to duly spend what we earn by paying attention to the criteria of thrift. A person is going to be asked how he made a living, how and on what he spent his money. Our religion asks us to take our needs into consideration rather than our desires when it comes to spending, and also we are encouraged not to waste or go to the extremes. There should be no expenditures on the areas forbidden by the religion and there is strong insistence on being thrifty and moderate. We have tried to explain in detail the hadiths, our Prophet’s statements, and verses which are the essential references of our religion. In this study, we have tried to emphasize that from the perspective of sustainable development economy, the factor of religion affects communal incidents in our social life. Since religion, a need for a person, who is a member of a community, presents itself as a reality of a society as well. We should not ignore that we can make the most of our religion’ s orders and prohibitions as regards thrift and preventing waste in the process of sustainable development economy. BIBLIOGRAPHY BİLGİSEVEN, A. (1987) Eğitim Sosyolojisi, Publication of the Turkish World Research Foundation , (4. Edition), Flaş Matbaası, İstanbul BUHARİ, (1986), Libas, Kütübü Sitte, Akçağ Yayınları, İstanbul 323 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo ERGENEKON, S. (1996), Tasarruf Eğilimini Etkileyen Sosyolojik Faktörler, PhD Thesis, Istanbul University Institute of Social Sciences , İstanbul İBNİ MACE, (1986), Taharet, Kütübü Sitte, Akçağ Yayınları, İstanbul ŞAMİL İSLAM ANSİKLOPEDİSİ, (1998), “İsraf”, Şamil Yayınları, İstanbul Meaning of The QURAN, http://www.kuranikerim.com/english/m_indexe.htm YAZIR, E.H.( 1992), Hak Dini Kur’an Dini, Zehraveyn Yayınları, İstanbul TİRMİZİ, (1986), Kıyame, Kütübü Sitte, Akçağ Yayınları, İstanbul Macroeconomic determinants of Sustainable Development in Bosnia and Herzegovina Emil Knezović, Uğur Ergun International Burch University, Faculty of Management, 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mail: kinez88@hotmail.com Abstract The origin of term sustainable development comes from forestry and it means the extent of cutting and putting the new trees on the planet. Synonymous for it is sustainability and it refers to ability to endure as much longer as it is possible. This paper shows the degree of correlation between sustainable development in Bosnia and Herzegovina and five macroeconomic determinants: unemployment, export, import, average salaries and CPI as a measure for inflation. The paper provides information about importance of economy in this process and it explains all variables that are used. It is based on the period of five consecutive years (2007-2011). Research for all of five variables was conducted on monthly basis for this period, so in total it provides 58 data (January and February of 2007 are excluded) for each variable. Next thing that this paper shows is the current position of the country in terms of its development. The paper represents a combination of basic research (provides a lot of useful information about the topic) and quantitative research (shows numerical results that are gotten by the analysis of the problem). Unemployment, as one of the biggest and growing problems in the country, is dependent variable and paper tries to prove relationships among this variable and the others. Results in the paper are obtained through descriptive analysis. The paper provides data about causes for high unemployment in our country and it shows how much impact each variables mentioned above have or does it have at all. Finally, paper shows on what country should put more emphasize in order to improve its current position and to be able to compete with more developed countries. 324 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1341 Title A name given to the resource The Effect Of Religion On The Process Of Sustainable Development Economy (In Terms Of Thrift) Author Author Mehmet , Masum Ocak Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, we have tried to emphasize that from the perspective of sustainable development economy, the factor of religion affects communal incidents in our social life.Since religion, a need for a person, who is a member of a community, presents itself as a reality of a society as well. Sustainable development aims at protecting and exploiting natural resources in the most effective way. The concept of sustainable development put forward with no hesitation entails its implementation in all societies throughout the world and requires governments to take responsibilities for this matter. Sustainable development gives priority to a person’s health, happiness and adaptation to his environment. It is out of question to separate or isolate religion, one of the most prominent features of life forms, from the social, cultural or economic dynamics of a community. Our religion, Islam, which regards happiness of individuals and societies as essential in the world and hereafter, sets rules to live our lives in harmony and in a well-balanced way. It also orders us to sensibly spend what we have earned according to the limits of thrift. Everyone is going to be asked to answer the questions of how he made a living, where and how he spent it. While spending his money, he is required to take his needs, instead of his wills, into consideration and not to spend too much or waste it by staying away from any extreme expenditure. Apart from the warning against spending on the areas forbidden by the religion, there is insistence on being thrifty and frugal. Extravagance/waste is one of the most serious dangers that a sustainable development economy can ever confront. Since as an outcome of waste, individuals and naturally communities will start to lose all the facilities and things they have already possessed, and face the challenges and deprivations ensued from their absence. They will turn out to be a dependent population. Today, while people are starving in many parts of the world, it is hard even to state the limits of the waste that some of us have caused. We should not neglect that we can make use of our religion’s, Islam’s, orders and prohibitions in order to stop waste and encourage to be frugal in the work process of sustainable development economy. We have tried to explain in detail the hadiths, our Prophet’s statements, and verses which are the essential references of our religion. Keywords: Thrift, Religion, Verse, Hadith, Sustainable Development, Waste Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8cd10ab8ba25d34c43d85242e395714f.pdf 64489f6f0866fb352b5d02f021ce7b8c PDF Text Text El-zaeems, S.Y. 2004. Alteration of the productive performance characteristics of Orechromis niloticus and Tilapia Zillii under the effect of foreign DNA injection. Egypt J. Aquat. Boil. Fish. 8(1): 261-278. El-Zaeem, S.Y., Aseem, S.S. 2004. Application of biotechnology in fish breeding: 1 – production of highly immune genetically modified Nile, tilapia Orechromis niloticus with accelerated growth by direct injection of Shark FAO. 2007. The role of aquaculture in sustainable development. Thirty-fourth Session. 17-24 November 2007, C 2007/INF/16 Rome. FAO. 10 pp. FAO. 2010. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. Rome. 197 pp. Fletcher, G. L., Hobbs, R. S., Evans, R. P., Shears, M. A., Hahn, A. L., Hew, C. L. 2011. Lysozyme transgenic Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Aquaculture Research, 42: 427–440. Hew CL, Davies PL, Fletcher G. 1992. Antifreeze protein gene transfer in Atlantic salmon. Mol Mar Biol Biotechnol. 1(4-5):309-17. Hew, C.L., Fletcher, G.L. 2001. The role of aquatic biotechnology in aquaculture. Aquaculture 197, 191-204. Snow, A.A, Andersen, B, Jørgensen, R. 1999. Costs of transgenic herbicide resistance introgressed from Brassica napus into weedy B. rapa. Molecular Ecology 8:605–615. Soltanian, S., Stuyven, E., Cox, E., Sorgeloos, P., Bossier, P. 2009. Beta-glucans as immunostimulant in vertebrates and invertebrates. Critical Reviews in Microbiology , 35: 109–138. Subasinghe, R.P. 2007. Aquaculture: Status and Prospects. In ―Role of Aquaculture in Sustainable Development. FAO Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Rome, Italy. Subasinghe, R., Soto, D., Jia, J. 2009. Global aquaculture and its role in sustainable development. Reviews in Aquaculture, 1: 2–9. Tepfer, M. 2002. Risk assessment of virus-resistant transgenic plants. Annual Review of Phytopathology. 40, 467-491. Environmental Impact of Hydroelectric power plants (HPP) and Fishways Mehmet Kocabaş1, Nadir Başçinar2, Filiz Kutluyer3, Önder Aksu3 1 Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Wildlife Ecology & Management, 61080, Trabzon, Turkey 2Karadeniz Technical University, Faculty of Marine Sciences, Department of Fisheries Technology Engineering, 61530, Trabzon, Turkey 3Tunceli University, Fisheries Faculty, 62000, Tunceli Abstract Hydroelectric power plants (HPP), which are not cause environment pollution relatively and renewable, inexpensive, has increased importance. However, there are positive and negative impacts on the ecological balance of these systems. One of the main environmental impact of hydropower development is related to fish passage both upstream and downstream. 190 �Hydroelectric power plants (HPP) adversely impact both fish biodiversity and local fishing communities. Ecosystem change destroys feeding as well as breeding grounds, with a resultant loss of fish species. Where the movement of migratory fish up and down river is affected by hydropower development, fish hatcheries near the dam sites or fish ladders for fish movement should be considered as mitigation options. Local user groups and other stakeholders should be involved in decision-making, to keep good relations concerning peoples‘ livelihoods and the sustainability of aquatic resources. The fish maintain the existence with feeding and reproduction migration of fish, a sufficient amount of water flows in the stream bed and with proper planning of fish ways. Depending on aquatic habitat and fish movement corridor values and other site characteristics, use of culvert fishways may preclude the need to adopt over-conservative and unnecessarily expensive designs using bridges. The suitability of culvert fishway facilities in meeting fish passage and other multipurpose design requirements can be demonstrated for numerous waterway types and structure configurations, and particularly for retrofit facilities. Recognising the need for ongoing design development and evaluation of fish passage facilities for road crossings and other waterway structures and for innovative solutions to address aquatic fauna connectivity barriers. The remaining water in the line of river, life line support will allow to the presence of fish in streams continue. Transverse structures to do with the river flow as well as standing water and thus fish would have the opportunity. The development and increase the number of aquatic species, fish would be affected positively by increase the feeding. Keywords: Hydroelectric power plants, fish way, ecosystem. 1. INTRODUCTION Environmental problems, which are eventuated during production and the use of energy, is one of the main reasons to be disuse of old technologies. Coal, oil and natural gas power plants threatens the world. The plants damages areas where they are established. Carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and dust, which are released into the atmosphere, pollute the environment and cause to deaths when fossil fuels are burned. In addition, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases cause to global climate change (Uyar, 2001). Today, world population growth, water conservation and energy requirement is made a current issue to construction of new dams and HEPP. The importance of dam and HEPP gradually increase due to be cheap and renewable (Akkaya et al., 2009; Kocabaş et al. 2011). Although, there are benefits use of water for renewable electricity generation, interactions carry with the environment (Aksungur et al., 2011). The effects of hydroelectric power plants is quite varied and HEPP cause to significant impacts on the area as physical, biological and on human beings. Damages to natural life, destruction of local cultures and historic sites, changes in water quality occurring in the river bed are some of adverse effects. Hydroelectric power plants affect to aquatic life. Especially, fish are negatively affected from the structures due to prevent migration of fish. Fishways are the most frequently used systems in the world. In review, environmental impact of hydroelectric power plants (HEPP) and importance and design of fishways are presented. 191 �2. HYDROELECTRİC POWER PLANTS (HEPP) Hydroelectric power plants (HEPP), which are not cause environment pollution relatively and renewable, inexpensive, has increased importance. Hydroelectric powerplants do not use up resources to create electricity nor do they pollute the air, land, or water, as other powerplants may. Hydroelectric power has played an important part in the development of electric power industry. Growing populations and modern technologies require vast amounts of electricity for creating, building, and expanding. In the 1920's, hydroelectric plants supplied as much as 40 percent of the electric energy produced. Hydropower is an essential contributor in the national power grid because of its ability to respond quickly to rapidly varying loads or system disturbances, which base load plants with steam systems powered by combustion or nuclear processes cannot accommodate. 3. ENVİRONMENTAL AND SOCİAL IMPACTS OF HYDROELECTRİC POWER PLANTS (HEPP) Effects on animal populations (fauna) vegetation (flora) and the human, social and economic problems, physical, biological impacts, problems of energy transmission lines are major problems. 3.1. Effects on land Physical environment is substantially affected by the construction of hydroelectric power plants. Both the river and the surrounding ecosystem will change with beginning of the construction studies. The changes can be listed as the topography changes, loss of farmland, forest land, settlement and cultural field. Water will begin to accumulate in reservoir with construction of barriers. Areas, which are used for agriculture, forestry and other purposes, become unavaliable. 3.2. Ecological impacts Ecological impacts can be listed as loss of fauna and flora (biotopes / biomass), habitat loss, climate change, effects on water resources, groundwater and thermal effects, surface water impacts, the soil and agricultural production, metals and other fossil resources, socioeconomic environment, landscape and recreation areas, noise, vibration impacts (work tools, and blasting), ecosystem degradation, geological and soil impact, division of highway, railway, waterway routes (Satılmış, 2009). HEPPs have various effects on vegetation, especially during the construction phase. Negative effects on vegetation such as direct destruction of vegetation, fragmentation of forests and other natural ecosystems, destroying of aluvial / riperian vegetation occur during the operation phase of the plants (Kurdoğlu and Özalp, 2010). Forests are important to the continuity of water resources. The destruction of forests and fragmentation of valleys cause to landslides and changes in flow rates of water. Destruction of feeding and breeding areas, intraspecific and interspecific competition, deterioration of habitats of wild animals, decreases in the number of rare species are adverse effects on fauna. In addition, ongoing construction, blasting, construction equipment, a high amount of dust in construction sites, noise and vibration cause to escape of wild animals to other areas (Kurdoğlu and Özalp, 2010; Kocabaş et al., 2011). To be inhibit of water flow in river will affect the amount and diversity of fish species. Similarly, changes in mineral levels will adversely affect to aquatic productivity as a one192 �sided. Hydroelectric power plants affect to aquatic systems. Especially, fish are negatively affected from the structures due to prevent migration of fish. Excavation, which are spilled to river beds, cause to turbidity, temperature change of water and destruction of aquatic organisms. Destruction of spawning areas, changes in water flow rate due to drought, the oxygen depletion as a result of high temperature cause to death of adult and juvenile fish. Fish have to do short- long distance migration for feeding or reproduction depending on the season. The migrations are a natural phenomenon for fish. Changes in hydrology of estuary and flow rate of water because of water collection ponds cause to changes in diversity of phytoplankton depending on changes in water quality. Distrupting of food chain negatively affected to feeding of fish. Life line support is another problem resulting from construction of hydroelectric power plants. Life line support should be available in sufficient amount for the maintenance of natural life, drinking and irrigation water and fish farms (Kurdoğlu and Özalp, 2010). Construction of energy transmission lines for transmission of produced energy, destruction of forests and distruption of ecosystems because of energy transmission lines are important problem. Energy transmission lines cause adverse effects on human health because of high voltage and currents, low frequency electromagnetic fields (Muluk et al. 2009). 3.3. Effects of hydroelectric power plants on fish and fishways Fish have instinct to migrate long or short distances in streams due to feeding, reproduction and sudden changes in the water quality (sudden rainfall, snow melting, etc.). Spawning migration is the most important of these migrations. The migrations is very important for their life cycle and the cycle should be maintain by fish. Catadromous species such as Blacksea trout (Salmo trutta labrax), sturgeon (Acipenser sturio), pearl mullet (Chalcalburnus tarichii) are hatched at sea but spends much of its adult life in freshwater streams. By contrast, anadromous species such as salmon, eel fish (Anguilla anguilla), hatched upstream in a freshwater environment but spend their adult lives at sea in the salt water. Some species such as Capoeta sp., Barbus sp. migrate to water resource in the river for reproduction. Water in small-scale hydroelectric power plants transport from river bed through the tunnels or channels in order to provide adequate water downfall. Water completely remove from the river bed. In this way, remaining as dry of river bed affect of these migrations. Serious changes on the quality and quantity of water occur depending on seasonal, day, annual climate change. Fishways are facilitating structures to fish migration. Effectiveness of fishways and collectors is tried to enhance due to prevent of fish migration of the structures. For this reason, studies have been performed related to species-specific fishways for many years. Recently, developed methods and monitoring systems are used to be maintain behaviour and migration of fish (Aksungur et al., 2011). The use of artificial channels has also been the object of recent development. Fish ladders technically can be built in such a way that mimic to nature. In addition, there are technical solutions such as bypass channels and fish ramps, fish elevators and transverse structures. 193 �4. CONCLUSIONS Fish populations and the ecosystems of rivers and streams negatively affected from the structures because of changes in the flow and quality of water. Lower levels of oxygen in the water can present a threat to animal and plant life. However, these issues can be addressed if fish ladders are put in place to ensure safe passage around the area, and the water is aerated on a regular basis to maintain adequate oxygen levels safe for animal and plant life. The flow of water should be monitored closely to prevent the ecological dangers associated with overstressing bodies of water. These dangers can easily be avoided by shutting down pumping operations temporarily to allow balance to return to damaged ecosystems. The suitability of culvert fishway facilities in meeting fish passage and other multipurpose design requirements can be demonstrated for numerous waterway types and structure configurations, and particularly for retrofit facilities. Recognising the need for ongoing design development and evaluation of fish passage facilities for road crossings and other waterway structures and for innovative solutions to address aquatic fauna connectivity barriers. The remaining water in the line of river, life line support will allow to the presence of fish in streams continue. Transverse structures to do with the river flow as well as standing water and thus fish would have the opportunity. The development and increase the number of aquatic species, fish would be affected positively by increase the feeding. REFERENCES Akkaya, U., Gültekin, A. B., Dikmen, Ç. B. & Durmuş, G. (2009). Baraj ve Hidroelektrik Santrallerinin (HES) Çevresel Etkilerinin Analizi: Ilısu Barajı Örneği. 5. Uluslar arası İleri Teknolojiler Sempozyumu (IATS09), 13-15 Mayıs, Karabük. Aksungur, M., Ak, O. & Özdemir, A. (2011). Nehir Tipi Hidroelektrik Santrallerinin Sucul Ekosisteme Etkisi: Trabzon Örneği, Journal of Fisheries Sciences. 5(1), 79-92. Kocabaş, M., Can, E., Kutluyer, F., Aksu, Ö. & Kayım, M. (2011). Doğal Alabalıkların Üreme Alanlarına İnsan Faaliyetlerinin Etkileri. Ekoloji Sempozyumu s: 186, 5-7 Mayıs 2011, Düzce, Türkiye. Kurdoğlu, O. & Özalp, M. (2010). Nehir Tipi Hidroelektrik Santral Yatırımlarının Yasal Süreç, Çevresel Etkiler, Doğa Koruma Ve Ekoturizmin Geleceği Kapsamında Değerlendirilmesi, III. Ulusal Karadeniz Ormancılık Kongresi 20-22 Mayıs 2010, Cilt: II s. 688-707. Muluk, Ç., Turak, A., Yılmaz, D., Zeydanlı, U. & Bilgin, C.C. (2009). Hidroelektrik Santral Etkileri Uzman Raporu: Barhal Vadisi. Kaçkar Dağları Sürdürülebilir Orman Kullanımı ve Koruma Projesi, EMA-ODTÜ-Doğa Koruma Merkezi. Satılmış, M. (2009). Baraj ve hidroelektrik santrallerin Çevresel Etki Değerlendirmesi. FORUM 2009, Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi Hidroelektrik Enerji Potansiyeli ve Bunun Ülke Enerji Politikalarındaki Yeri, 13-15 Kasım 2009, Trabzon. Uyar, T. S. (2001). Enerji Sorunu Nedir? Alternatif Enerji Çözüm müdür?. NEU-CEE 2001 Electrical, Electronic and Computer Engineering Symposium, 23-26, Lefkoşa TRNC. 194 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1244 Title A name given to the resource Environmental Impact of Hydroelectric power plants (HPP) and Fishways Author Author Mehmet , Kocabaş Abstract A summary of the resource. Hydroelectric power plants (HPP), which are not cause environment pollution relatively and renewable, inexpensive, has increased importance. However, there are positive and negative impacts on the ecological balance of these systems. One of the main environmental impact of hydropower development is related to fish passage both upstream and downstream.Hydroelectric power plants (HPP) adversely impact both fish biodiversity and local fishing communities. Ecosystem change destroys feeding as well as breeding grounds, with a resultant loss of fish species. Where the movement of migratory fish up and down river is affected by hydropower development, fish hatcheries near the dam sites or fish ladders for fish movement should be considered as mitigation options. Local user groups and other stakeholders should be involved in decision-making, to keep good relations concerning peoples‘ livelihoods and the sustainability of aquatic resources. The fish maintain the existence with feeding and reproduction migration of fish, a sufficient amount of water flows in the stream bed and with proper planning of fish ways. Depending on aquatic habitat and fish movement corridor values and other site characteristics, use of culvert fishways may preclude the need to adopt over-conservative and unnecessarily expensive designs using bridges. The suitability of culvert fishway facilities in meeting fish passage and other multipurpose design requirements can be demonstrated for numerous waterway types and structure configurations, and particularly for retrofit facilities. Recognising the need for ongoing design development and evaluation of fish passage facilities for road crossings and other waterway structures and for innovative solutions to address aquatic fauna connectivity barriers. The remaining water in the line of river, life line support will allow to the presence of fish in streams continue. Transverse structures to do with the river flow as well as standing water and thus fish would have the opportunity. The development and increase the number of aquatic species, fish would be affected positively by increase the feeding. Keywords: Hydroelectric power plants, fish way, ecosystem. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/998eec87b9ec4c1310385f628f491150.pdf 88863acfccea4aba8d51f8fe1ec5c6de PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo “From Transition to Transformation: Sustainable and Inclusive Development in Europe and Central Asia”, report, 2011 Web: http://www.mckinsey.com/Features/Resource_revolution http://www.clickgreen.org.uk/research/trends/123462-biodiversity-loss-is-as-damaging-asclimate-change-and-pollution.html http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_598a.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/srex/SREX_slide_deck.pdf http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/publications/oes/RIO_20_Web_Interactif.pdf www.undp.org.me www.mek.gov.me www.energetska-efikasnost.me Situation Of The Dikili Gulf Fishes For Sustainable Fisheries Mehmet İkiz1, Hatice Koç Torcu 2, Fatih Güleç1 1- Ege Üniversitesi, Su Ürünleri Fakültesi, 35080 İzmir 2- Balikesir University, Faculty of Science and Arts, Balikesir-Turkey E-mails: mikiz@mynet.com, htorcukoc@hotmail.com, mc305@live.com Abstract Conservation fish stocks in the aquatic ecosystem is important for sustainable fish production. Continuation of the fish species generations in a habitat is affected by environmental conditions and hunting pressure. For the sustainability of the reproductive abilities of fishes, it is essential to know interactions with the the other species that live in habitat. In this way the production models, that encourage the fish to grow in its natural habitat, can be developed. In this study, the fish species that live in Dikili Bay of Izmir City and their economic features were investigated. Fish species that live in Dikili Bay were examined systematically and biologically; also identification keys of the species were formed. Morphometric and meristic characters of obtained species were identified. In the examination, 70 species belonging to 39 families were identified. 9 species of these belong to chondrichythyes and 61 to osteichtyes. 31 of these species are economically important species and are hunted. 2 of them (Sea bream and sea bass) are farmed in Turkey, also. As a result of inadequate protection measures and mindless hunting, it was observed 31 economically important and identified species, that live 146 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo in the Dikili bay, began to extinction day by day. Due to the sea bottom is sandy, it provides appropriate conditions to trawl fishing. By hunting with this method leads to deterioration of marine ecosystems. Unlike the other surface fishnets, the trawling disrupts the fish shelters and nests and makes them irreversible. In this context, placement of an artificial fish shelters, both will form habitat for fish and with this way trawling can be prevented partially. In addition, to protect the natural balances of the economically important fish species, stock enhancement programs, that used for terrestrial water resources, are able to apply for local marine fish species. By the stock enhancement programs, the natural fish stocks will increase and the sustainable fisheries will be provided in the natural environment. Keywords: Dikili Bay, Sustainable Fisheries, fish stocks, stock enhancement, trawling. 1.INTRODUCTION People used to use seas for two aims; fishing and trade since first ages. It is accepted by everyone that seas contain a lot of biological sources which can be effective in all kinds of lives of increasing world population. That's why the countries which have coasts to these seas and their scientists have begun working on getting to know, introducing and saving those seas which can be life savers and the biological sources in them, intensively. (Geldiay & Kocatas, 2005) Nowadays food and nutrition are the two main problems of people of the fast growing world population. All studies and technologies are centered (intensified) on producing healthy food sources and saving natural food sources. Especailly today, instead of breeding special kinds (species), saving and retaining genetic variety in natural sources have special importance besides aquacultural studies. The increase of endemic kind population which is important especially in terms of biological variety and making them profitable financially have great importance. On our unstabil earth, studies the continuity of the kinds (species) in natural stocks (reserves) which have genetic composition with high variable adaptation ability will provide a basis for the future studies. At the same time, saving biological variety will provide a basis in gaining alternative kinds of fish to the economy of our country in addition to existing cultivation. Fish pricing with a wide inference (meaning), is improving (cultivating) the existing natural source by artificial interference to the echosystem from outside. Commercially, fish pricing is described (named) as increasing stocks of all kinds of water sources (like; river, lake, fishery, dam, etc). Today escpecially in fishing, an important amount of product is gained from fish pricing as a third way besides other two which are hunting and breeding from the natural sources (Sezgin, 2006) Sea pollution and the demand for water products have caused an excessive decrease of fish stocks to meet the increase of pretein need with the growth of world population potential, and biological variety in natural stocks has also been affected negatively. In this study, the variety of fish, their place in systematic and biological features in Dikili Bay are examined (searched) and the assingment key has been formed (created). 147 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.Materials and methods Providing material (obtaining material) The research has been carried out in about 12-month period, in Dikili Bay from August 2001 to September 2002. Collecting samples involved 15-day periods or monthly periods according to the weather conditions. Material has been provided by communicating (contacting) with trawl net and haul seine boats which come to the fishing ports in the towns in Dikili, Izmir and the hunters hunting for sports. Deep trawl net has been used for fishing demersal fish. The depth of fishing places have been detected with sonar and echo-sounder devices. 28 meter long, 820-HP-motor, 22 mm aperture size and 800 mesh, deep trawl, Reis Boat, which has been registered to Trabzon Harbour and tied to Dikili was used. 2.1.Evaluating the samples Collected samples have been washed immediately and got through %70 alcohol or %4 formaldeyde solution. The ones taken out from the sea have been recorded and photographed before the process because of the colour corruption of the types (kinds) put in alcohol and formaldeyde. In the recognition of the samples in the studies morfometric and meristic characters have been used. For measuring the types' morphometric characters 0.5 mm sensitivity vernier has been used. For detecting meristic characters binocular has been used. As metric characters; total length (TL), body height (BH), Head length (HL), eye diameter (ED), in addition to those for the fish which has disc shaped body with cartilage, disc width (DW), and disc length (DL) have been measured. As disc width, the distance between the tips of pectoral fins, and as disc length, the distance between the tips of muzo and pectoral fins are measured. As meristic characters dorsal, anal, ventral and pectoral fin beams, dorsal and anal pinules, pilork cheka, gill spines, lateral line, and lateral cycle (serial) scales have been counted according to the types (kinds). Simple (spine) beams have been indicated (shown) in Roman numerals, soft (branched) beams have been indicatged (shown) in normal numerals. For the ones that have 5 or more samples body ratio is measured about %95. Determining the morphologic characters Whitehead and ark.(1984-86) have been used. In the research mostly the fish type which has been taken out with deep trawl exist. In systematic order of the types from Dikili Bay GOLANI (1996) and for naming those types Whitehead, ark.(1984-86), Fischer and ark.(1987), Wheeler (1992) have been based on. 2.2.Land Information This study has taken place in the inner part of the line which connects Adatepe Cape and Madra Stream which are between 39 10' 00'' N-30 02' 30'' N latitude and 26 46' 00'' E-26 48' 48'' E. 148 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dikili Bay is surrounded by Candarli Bay in south, Midilli Island in west and Edremit Bay in north. It has a sandy ground. There is pebble and sand in the shallow parts and mud in the deep. There are limnetic exists undersea. The study area is under the effect of coastal and deep impure, local drifts, waves, topography of land, sea morphology and the materials that rivers carry to the sea. (Eryilmaz & Eryilmaz, 2007) According to the morpholigical features Eagean Sea is divided into three different regions; Northern part, Middle Part and Southern Part. The average depth of Northern Part is about 120-200m. (Tokac, et al. 2010) 2.3.Features of water It has been observed that the heat of the water mass in Eastern Eagean sea is 9-26 degrees and the amount of oxygen is 4-10 ml/l. (Artüz, 1970; Benli and Kucuksezgin, 1988; Ergin and others, 1933a) Bay is affected by the cold surface water coming from the Dardanelles and Marmara which belongs Black Sea originally. 6-7 degrees difference exists between Norhtern Eagean and Southern Eagean in winter. In summer there is no notable difference. The heat of the surface water is 14-15 degrees under 200 m whereas it is variable (chageable). (Culha, 1994) Saltiness is affected by Black Sea flows, it is less common than other regions of Eagean Sea. (‰ 33) (Culha, 1994) In accordance with nutritious salts it is seen that Northern Eagean is richer Black Sea and Marmara. If we study the the vertical distribution of the nutritious salts, we see that the concentration up to 200 m is low whereas in deeper parts which is more than 200 m, the values of nitrate, phosphate and silicate increase. (Frilligos, 1981) 149 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 150 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 3. Discussion and result In this study (research) the types of fish in Dikili Bay have been observed in the basis of bio variability. In our country in 2003 463.074 tons of fish from the seas and 44.698 tons fish from inland water were caught. In same year 79.943 tons of fish were bred. Breeding fish in seas and inland waters has shown an increasing tendency until 2000 whereas has shown a decreasing tendency in following years. The amount of fish bred by hunting has shown fluctuation according to the years. Turkey imports noncultivated fish and exports cultivated fish, mollusuc and shelled. The %70-80 of export ıs to EU countries like France, Germany and Belgium and Japan is the second. In recent years the export to China has been increasing. But first we should take caution to prevent environmental pollution and lessening the fish stocks to take the potential of sea and inland water into consideration. Besides these, it is necessary to introduce and encourage the methods (ways) of fish breeding in inlands and reservoirs, developing economical fish types, to adapt the non-existing economic types in a way which they won't harm fauna. (Karakas & Turkoglu, 2005) In the study in Bay the place of existing types has been appointed (signified) in systematic, they have been observed biologically and the key of significance. In the study mostly the types of fish which hunted by using deep trawl (deep troll) has been given place and totally 70 types of fish which belong to 47 class (breed) in 38 families have been assigned. 9 types of those belong to the type of fish which are chondrinus and other 61 are bony. According to the data of Dikili fishing association, the target types of fish which are assigned as economical by the fishermen in Dikili are; sardine (Sardina pilchardus), atlantic bonito (or skipjack tuna) (sarda sarda), red mullet (mullus barbatus), striped red mullet (mullus surmuletus), pickerel (spicara smaris), bogue (boops boops), horse mackerel (trachurus brachurus) and bluefish (pomatomus saltatrix) (Tokac, et al., 2010). Only atlantic bonito (or skipjack tuna) (sarda sarda) hasn't been seen in this study. Hunted types are demersal ones which pelagic and economical commonly hunted ones are mainly sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and others are; Gilt-head bream (sparus aurata), red sea bream (pagellus erythrinus), red mullet (mullus barbatus), striped red mullet (mullus surmuletus), chub (mugil spp.), pickerel (spicara smaris), bogue (boops boops), horse mackerel (trachurus brachurus) (Hossucu, et al., 2001) With the suitable ones which will be chosen in Dikili Bay natural stock can be enriched. It has been observed that the methods that applied up to now for restocking programmes are mostly for the types which immigrate locally for short terms especially commercial types related to benthic and demersal and half benthic environments successfully. It has been said that for assigning the hunting strategies immigration in the enriching stock programmes is one of the essential factors (Salvanes, 2001). In fishing projects immigration is important for the chance of hunting again by the fishermen. The Turbot (Psetta maxima) have been chosen for stock enriching programmes and experimental studies in North Atlantic coastal region, Spain and Denmark and also in Turkey Black Sea region (Bergstad and Folkvord, 1997), (Zengin vd, 2005). Other important thing in the study of fishing is the chosen material and local place. The result of taking the exotic and unfamiliar types to the natural environment afterwards and their interaction and possible problems which may arise, can give harm to the balance of ecosystem. For Turkey the most common example is the negative effect of population of zander (pike-perch) (Stizostedion luciopreca) which was stocked in Egridir Lake, on other 151 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo fish fauna and this has caused the lessening of local fish fauna in lake ecosystem for long years (Anonim, 1991) That's why for hunting in those areas should be banned during the season or should be limited until it reaches to its minimum level. In addition to that minimum hunting level should be processed in accordance with bio-economic value in hunting period. If necessary in this area artificial reef should be built. On the other hand in fishing, the fishermen who help (contribute) this project, can be given the right to fish and for the control of this a legal and administrational regulation should be planned. In this area the most improved (developed) model is Japan’s (Blankenship and Leber, 1995; Sato, 2001). Since there is no study on the subject in Dikili, in which our studies take place, the morphometric and meristic characters of the types haven't been compared. REFERENCES Çulha, M., 1994. Ege Denizinde Kültüre Alınabilecek Alternatif Balık Türleri. İzmir: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Deniz Bilimleri ve Teknolojisi Deniz Bilimleri Anabilim Dalı. Eryılmaz, M. & Eryılmaz, F. Y., 2007. Dikili Kanalı-Çandarlı Körfezi-Midilli Adası Arasının (Ege Denizi) Güncel Çökel Dağılım Haritası. Ankara, 60. Türkiye Jeoloji Kurultayı. Friligos, N., 1981. Seasonal Variation of Nutrient Salts(N,P,Si), Dissolved Oxygen and Chlorophyll-a in Thermaikos Gulf. Jugoslavia: s.n. Tokaç, A. et al., 2010. Ege Denizi Balıkçılığı. 1. Baskı dü. İzmir: IMEAK Deniz Ticaret Odası İzmir Şubesi Yayınları. Geldiay, R. & Kocataş, A., 2005. Deniz Biyolojisine Giriş. İzmir: Ege Üniversitesi Basımevi. Sezgin, M., 2006. Balıklandırmanın Genel Kriterleri Ve Dünyada Ve Ülkemizdeki Stoklama Deneyimleri. Antalya, Akdeniz Su Ürünleri Araştırma Üretim ve Eğitim Enstitüsü Yayınları. Hoşsucu, H. et al., 2001. Balıkçılık Sektörünün İzmir İli İçindeki İşleyişi ve Güncel Sorunları. E.Ü. Su Ürünleri Dergisi, 18(3-4), pp. 437-444. Karakaş, H. & Türkoğlu, H., 2005. Su Ürünlerinin Dünyada ve Türkiye' deki Durumu. Harran Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(3), pp. 21-28. Tokaç, A. et al., 2010. Ege Denizi Balıkçılığı. 1. Baskı dü. İzmir: IMEAK Deniz Ticaret Odası İzmir Şubesi Yayınları. Usage Of Clove Oil In Aquarium Fish (Pangasius Pangasius Hamilton, 1822) 152 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1239 Title A name given to the resource Situation Of The Dikili Gulf Fishes For Sustainable Fisheries Author Author Mehmet, İkiz Abstract A summary of the resource. Conservation fish stocks in the aquatic ecosystem is important for sustainable fish production. Continuation of the fish species generations in a habitat is affected by environmental conditions and hunting pressure. For the sustainability of the reproductive abilities of fishes, it is essential to know interactions with the the other species that live in habitat. In this way the production models, that encourage the fish to grow in its natural habitat, can be developed. In this study, the fish species that live in Dikili Bay of Izmir City and their economic features were investigated. Fish species that live in Dikili Bay were examined systematically and biologically; also identification keys of the species were formed. Morphometric and meristic characters of obtained species were identified. In the examination, 70 species belonging to 39 families were identified. 9 species of these belong to chondrichythyes and 61 to osteichtyes. 31 of these species are economically important species and are hunted. 2 of them (Sea bream and sea bass) are farmed in Turkey, also. As a result of inadequate protection measures and mindless hunting, it was observed 31 economically important and identified species, that live in the Dikili bay, began to extinction day by day. Due to the sea bottom is sandy, it provides appropriate conditions to trawl fishing. By hunting with this method leads to deterioration of marine ecosystems. Unlike the other surface fishnets, the trawling disrupts the fish shelters and nests and makes them irreversible. In this context, placement of an artificial fish shelters, both will form habitat for fish and with this way trawling can be prevented partially. In addition, to protect the natural balances of the economically important fish species, stock enhancement programs, that used for terrestrial water resources, are able to apply for local marine fish species. By the stock enhancement programs, the natural fish stocks will increase and the sustainable fisheries will be provided in the natural environment. Keywords: Dikili Bay, Sustainable Fisheries, fish stocks, stock enhancement, trawling. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/216264cd581d275582a04cd40c938aa5.pdf d4710d198e222477129ca716d769ba7f PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo http://fuarlar.tobb.org.tr/ihtisasfuari-new.pdf (01.02.2012) Koldaş, A. N. (2004) Ticari Fuarların Satış Geliştirmeye Etkisi ve Bir Uygulama, T.C. Gazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsütüsü İşletme Anabilim Dalı Yayınlanmamış Yükseklisans Tezi, Ankara. Okay A. (2000) Kurum Kimliği, Mediacat, İstanbul. Philip K. (1994) Marketing Management, Analysis, Planning, Implementation and Control, Prentice Hall Int. Ed., New Jersey. Sülün U. (2004) İhracatta Yeni Pazarlama Stratejisi Olarak Fuarlar ve İzmir Uygulamaları, İzmir Ticaret Odası, Yayın No: 38, İzmir. Can Product Placement be Used for Advertising Purposes in Turkish Series: Case of “Aşk-I Memnu” Necklace (Testing a Measurement Instrument) Mehmet Özer Demir, Zuhal Gök Demir Akdeniz University, Alanya Engineering Faculty, Alanya/Antalya Akdeniz University, Communication Faculty, Antalya, Emails: mozerdemir@akdeniz.edu.tr, zuhalgok@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract Product placement has become an important promotional mix element in recent years in Turkey. Since audiences are skeptical towards commercials, advertisers have begun to turn to a variety of alternative advertising channels in order to reach customers. One of the channels they have begun to use more frequently in recent years is product placement, the placing of branded products in movies and television programs alike. The aim of the study is testing a research instrument appropriate for measuring product placement formation. The study proposes existence of relationship between connectedness to the series and attitude towards product placements in the series, and researches connectedness dimensions having effect on product placement. Research is carried out in Antalya in 2011 with convenience sampling of 300 respondents. The questionnaire form is an adopted version of connectedness scale developed by Russell et al. (2004). Keywords: Product Placement, Brand Placement, Advertising, Promotion Mix, Soap Operas, TV Series. 1.INTRODUCTION Product placement has become an important promotion mix element in recent years. Since audiences are skeptical towards commercials, marketers have begun to turn to a variety of 40 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo alternative advertising channels in order to reach customers. One of the channels used in the last two decades is product placement, the placing/usage of branded products in movies and television programs alike. The strategy of placing branded products in entertainment media is not a new concept as product placement can be dated to 1890s, where Lever Brothers secured the placement of their branded soaps in some of the earliest films made (Hudson and Hudson, 2006). Historically, starting in the 1930s, consumer product manufacturers invested in the production of radio programs to reach their target audiences. This phenomenon was particularly visible in the "soap opera" genre. When soaps moved to television in the 1950s, product placements became part of TV shows and series. Product placement is an estimated $3.4 billion dollar industry and constitutes a part of the marketing mix of over 1,000 brands in the United States (Russell and Belch, 2005). Product placement strategies have evolved from the just showing the can approach to become increasingly sophisticated formats, and are generally classified into three main types; 1. Implicit product placement; Implicit product placement refers to the placement of a branded product within a television programme without being formally expressed. The placement of a product can be as simple as a product being used in one scene. It plays a passive and contextual role. 2. Integrated explicit product placement; A branded product that is formally expressed within a television programme is defined as an integrated explicit product placement, it plays an active role. In this type of product placement the benefits and attributes of the product are clearly demonstrated. A brand being mentioned by a character in the story, or a logo visible in the background of a frame. 3. Non-integrated explicit product placement; at the other extreme, a product placement can be a critical and integral part of the movie (McCarty, 2004, p.47). In this type of placement, a brand or product becomes a part of the plot or takes a major place in the storyline. The subtlety of the connection between brand reference and plot is important. Current wisdom when handling brand placement in movies is that the portrayal of the brand must ‘tell a story’ because simply ‘showing the can’ does not offer a sufficiently powerful narrative context to enhance the brand identity (Hackley, 2003). There has been an increasing interest towards product placement in the last two decades. Previous studies in the area of product placement have generally related to three topic areas: its’ effects on audiences’ brand recall (Ong and Meri, 1994), recognition (Babin and Carder, 1996) and attitudes (Vollmers and Mizerski, 1994), and the level of acceptance of product placement in general (Gupta and Gould, 1997; d’Astous and Seguin, 1999; Russell, 2002). Although the effectiveness of product placements in terms of how well they are remembered is measured by most of the empirical studies, a limited number of research on understanding the psychological processes that relate to product placement in relation to variables that will help researchers understand how product placements works remains insufficient (McCary, 2004, p.57). Researches show that brand placement was not related to behavior or brand evaluations. This means that, although viewers do not remember that they saw a brand in a program or movie, they do show more positive brand evaluations and more preference for the placed brand than viewers who did not see the brand placement. This implies that explicit measures, such as recall, can 41 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo show low scores, but at the same time, implicit effect measures can show high scores (van Reijmersdal et al, 2009). Russell (2002) states that memory is influenced by depth of processing such that more elaborate processing facilitates the subsequent recall of information, that is, memory is greater when the stimulus is spoken than when it is only visually presented. In addition the relationship between memory and attitude is not straightforward: merely because a person remembers seeing or hearing a brand in a show does not mean that his or her attitude toward that brand will change. The congruency/incongruency literature provides insights into this nonlinear attitude-memory relationship: when a brand's modality of presentation is not congruent with its level of plot connection, viewers tend to think about the reason for the brand's presence in the show and raise their cognitive defenses (Friestad and Wright 1995). When the modality and plot connection match, the placement seems more natural and less effort is spent on analyzing why it is there, thereby making access to persuasion knowledge less likely (Campbell and Kirmani, 2000). Also the effects of involvement levels with the medium vehicle in which brands are placed are mainly positive (Reijmersdal et al, 2009). There are three theories that explain effects of brand placement. 1. Intentional exposure theory predicts the effects of commerciality of the placement on attention and memory. This theory states that audiences primarily expose themselves to media for the editorial content rather than for the advertising (Gupta and Lord, 1998; Van Reijmersdal et al., 2005). When brands are integrated into editorial content, they profit from the attention that is paid to the editorial content. As a consequence, brand placements in editorial formats, as opposed to more commercial formats, gain more attention and are better remembered (Cameron and Curtin, 1995; Lord and Putrevu, 1998; Van Reijmersdal et al., 2005). 2. Source-credibility theory proposes that placements that are more editorial than commercial are perceived as more credible. On the one hand, commercial content is not perceived as credible because audiences know that advertisers have the aim to persuade and to increase sales. This perception makes audiences more skeptical about commercials than about editorial content, resulting in more negative attitudes to placements that are commercial, and to less positive brand-related behavioral intentions (Becker-Olsen, 2003; Lord and Putrevu, 1998). 3. Persuasion knowledge theory explains effects of brand placement prominence. Prominence has positive effects on some outcomes but negative effects on others. On the one hand, prominent placements lead to better memory than subtle placements (e.g., Babin and Carder, 1996; I. Brennan et al., 1999; Schneider and Corn-well, 2005). Furthermore, the audience starts thinking about the reasons for the brand's presence when brands are prominently placed (Matthes et al., 2007; Russell, 2002), which can activate the audience's knowledge about persuasion techniques and influence attempts. People's persuasion knowledge can make them realize that the brand is placed for commercial reasons. This might lead to counter-arguing and skeptical attitudes toward the placement (Balasubramanian et al., 2006; Matthes et al., 2007). Similarly, the effect of placement length is predicted to be negative; when placements are too long, they are perceived as intrusive and distracting from the media experience (Herandez et al., 2004).” 42 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2.Research Method 2.1.Research Model The study researches a branded product (a necklace) placed in a popular TV series (Aşk-ı Memnu). The necklace is placed as an integrated explicit product placement strategy. The study proposes existence of relationship between connectedness (Russell et al, 2004) to the series and attitude towards product placements in the series, and researches connectedness dimensions having effect on product placement. Russell et al. (2004, p.152) define connectedness “as the level of intensity of the relationship(s) that a viewer develops with the characters and contextual settings of a program in the parasocial television environment”. The original connectedness scale captures 6 dimensions; Escape, Fashion, Imitation, Modelling, Aspiration and Paraphernalia. Connectedness is assumed to have effect on product placement, and higher the connectedness level the higher the positive attitude towards product placement is expected (Russell et al., 2004). However, in this study, we hypothesize that not all connectedness dimension have equal effect on attitudes towards product placement, and research the relationships between connectedness dimensions and product placement. We conduct correlation analysis and linear regression equation in order to demonstrate the relationships. Thus, we hypothesize; H1: Audiences connected to the TV series are more moderate to product placement. H2: Connectedness dimension have different levels of effect on product placement. 2.2.Research Method The research is carried out in Antalya in 2011 with convenience sampling of 328 respondents. The questionnaire form is an adopted version of connectedness scale developed by Russell et al. (2004). Attitudes towards product placement are measured with four items (Garza 2003). The questionnaire form also contains items regarding demographics. Original connectedness scale and attitude towards product placement scale are given in Table 1. Table 1: The Data Collection Tool Escape: Watching ___ is an escape for me ___ helps me forget about the day’s problems. If I am in a bad mood, watching ___ puts me in a better mood. Fashion: I like the clothes they wear on ___. I like the hairstyles on ___. I often buy clothing styles that I’ve seen in ___. Imitation: I imitate the gestures and facial expressions from the characters in ___. 43 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo I find myself saying phrases from ___ when I interact with other people. I try to speak like the characters in ___. Modeling: I learn how to handle real life situations by watching ___. I get ideas from ___ about how to interact in my own life. I relate what happens in ___ to my own life. Aspiration: I would love to be an actor in ___. I would love to meet the characters of ___. Paraphernalia: I have objects that relate to ___ (badge, book, picture, etc.). I read books if they are related to ___. Attitudes Towards Product Placement I mind if brand-name products appear in movies? I mind if movie producers receive money or other compensation from advertisers for placing their brands in movies? I think it is unethical for movie producers to attempt to influence the audience by including brand-name products in their movies? I think that seeing the brand-name product in a movie makes the experience more realistic? 3.ANALYSIS 3.1.Validity and Reliability of the Research Scale In order to test reliability of the research scale Cronbach’s alpha is calculated both for connectedness scale and attitudes towards product placement scale (Table 2). Cronbach’s alpha value calculated for connectedness scale is 0,857, representing high reliability (the Cronbahc’a alpha value calculated for the original connectedness scale is 0.84 (Russell et al. 2004, p.152)). Cronbach’s alpha value calculated for connectedness scale is 0,527. However it represents low level of reliability, it is still acceptable. Table 2. Cronbach’s alpha values for Connectedness and Attitudes Towards Product Placement Scales. 44 Cronbach's Alpha for Connectedness N of Items ,857 16 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Cronbach's Alpha for Att. Prod. Plc. N of Items ,527 4 In order to ensure validity of the scale, previously validated scales are used (Russell et al. 2004; Garza, 203). To test construct validity of the connectedness scale we have conducted exploratory factor analysis. Rotated component matrix with varimax rotation is given in Table 3. Connectedness scale items are collected under 5 factors/dimensions. Five dimensions explain %69,8 of the total variance. Results of factor analysis are as expected; all the items are collected under expected dimensions except aspiration and paraphemalla. Items of aspiration and paraphemalla are collected under one unique dimension. Instead of separating these two dimensions, analysis are continued with this factor structure. Table 3. Rotated Factor Loadings Matrix with Varimax Rotation for Connectedness Scale Factors IMITATION I try to speak like the characters in ___. I find myself saying phrases from ___ when I interact with other people. I imitate the gestures and facial expressions from the characters in ___. I would love to meet the characters of ___. I would love to be an actor in ___. I read books if they are related to ___. I have objects that relate to ___ (badge, book, picture, etc.). I like the hairstyles on ___. I like the clothes they wear on ___. I often buy clothing styles that I’ve seen in ___. Watching ___ is an escape for me. If I am in a bad mood, watching ___ puts me in a better mood. ___ helps me forget about the day’s problems. I relate what happens in ___ to my own life. I get ideas from ___ about how to interact in my own life. I learn how to handle real life situations by watching ___. Variance explained by each dimension (%) Total variance explained (%) ASPIRATION/ PARAPHEMALLA FASHION ESCAPE MODELLING ,832 ,811 ,757 ,834 ,805 ,695 ,540 ,833 ,789 ,694 ,835 ,826 ,797 ,824 ,765 ,739 32,577 13,309 9,822 7,473 6,624 69,804 3.2.Analysis and Results Using the exploratory factor analysis results, 16 items are collected under 5 dimensions; Imitation, Aspiration/Paraphemalla, Fashion, Escape and Modelling. Arithmetic mean for each dimension is calculated to be the representatives for the dimensions. Correlation and regression analysis depend on these arithmetic means. 45 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In order to test H1, we have conducted correlation analysis (Table 4). Results of correlation analysis show that all the dimensions (Fashion (0,227, p<0,001), Imitation (0,136, p<0,05), Modelling (0,175, p<0,01), Escape (0,118, p<0,05) and Aspiration/Paraphemalla (0,286, p<0,001)) are correlated with attitude towards product placement. However correlations are found to be very weak. Thus H1 is accepted, which means, there is a correlation between connectedness dimensions and attitude towards product placement, however the relationships are weak. Table 4: Correlations between Attitude Towards Product Placement and Connectedness Scale Dimensions PLACEMENT Pearson Correlation Sig. (2tailed) FASHION IMITATION MODELLING ESCAPE ,227 ,136 ,175 ,118 ASPIRATION/ PARAPHEMALLA ,286 ,000 ,019 ,002 ,039 ,000 In order to test H2, we have conducted linear regression with enter method. Results of regression analysis show that R2, which represents the explained variation, is calculated as 0,097. Thus, 9,7% of the variation in attitudes toward product placement can be explained by connectedness dimensions. This is very low level of variation explained. Although R2 value is very low, regression equation is found to be statistically significant (p<0,001), which means that our model is statistically significant. Upon inspection of regression equation, it is understood that the only statistically significant relationship found is between aspiration/paraphemalla dimension and product placement. Although statistically not significant, imitation and escape dimension have negative effects on attitudes towards product placement, and fashion and modelling dimension have positive effects. Aspiration/Paraphemalla dimension is found to positively affect attitudes towards product placement; however it is weak (0,172). Results of regression analysis results support H2, that is, connectedness dimensions have different levels of effect on attitudes towards product placement. However, connectedness scale cannot be used to explain product placement as the variation explained (R2) is very low. Product Placement= 2,146 + (,056) Fashion +( -,007) Imitation + (,086) Modelling +( -,003) Escape + (,172) Aspiration/Parahemalla (,000) (,321) (,900) (,120) (,002) Table 5. Determination Coefficient 46 Model R 1 ,312 R Square Adjusted R Square ,097 ,080 Std. Error of the Estimate ,79429 (,949) �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 6. Regression Analysis Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Regressi on 17,928 5 3,586 Residual 166,557 264 ,631 Total 184,485 269 Sig. ,000b 5,683 Table 7. Regression Coefficients Model Unstandardized Coefficients B 1 Std. Error (Constant) 2,146 ,198 FASHION ,056 ,056 -,007 IMITATION MODELLING ESCAPE ASPIRATION/PA RAPHEMALLA Standardiz ed Coefficient s t Sig. Beta 10,858 ,000 ,075 ,995 ,321 ,057 -,009 -,126 ,900 ,086 ,055 ,107 1,558 ,120 -,003 ,046 -,004 -,064 ,949 ,172 ,055 ,219 3,117 ,002 4.CONCLUSION Product placement offers alternative promotion mix tools for the advertisers. Although it is not a new concept, it is new to Turkish producers and advertisers. Product placement is an estimated $3.4 billion dollar industry in the United States (Russell and Belch, 2005). It is expected that product placement practices in Turkey may increase in the near future. The aim of the study is to test a research tool that can increase our knowledge about formation of attitudes towards product placement. It is assumed that connectedness level to the series is related to attitudes towards product placement. We have tested our hypothesis using correlation coefficient and regression analysis. Although analysis are significant, correlation levels and variance explained are found to be very low. Thus, we suggest that connectedness level has a weak but statistically significant effect on attitudes toward product placement. Relationship level 47 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo is so low that, it may be inappropriate to use connectedness scale researching attitudes towards product placement. REFERENCES Babin, L.A. and Carder, S.T. (1996). Viewers’ recognition of brands placed within a film. International Journal of Advertising 15, 140–151. Balasubramanian, S.K., Karrh, J.A., and Patwardhan, H. (2006), Audience response to product placements, Journal of Advertising, Vol. 35, Iss. 3, pp. 115-141. Becker-Olsen, K. L. (2003). And Now a Word from Our Sponsor: A Look at Effects of Sponsored Content and Banner Advertising. Journal of Advertising 32, 2, 17-32. Brennan, I. and Babin, L.A. (2004). Brand Placement Recognition: The Influence of Presentation Mode and Brand Familiarity in Handbook of Product Placement in the Mass Media: New Strategies in Marketing Theory, Practice, Trends and Ethics. Haworth Press Mary-Lou Galician Editor Cameron, G.T., and Curtin. P.A. (1995). Tracing Sources of Information Pollution: A Survey and Experimental Test of Print Media's Labeling Policy for Feature Advertising. Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, 72, 1, 178-189. Campbell, M.C. and Kirmani, A. (2000). Consumers’ Use of Persuasion Knowledge: The Effects of Accessibility and Cognitive Capacity on Perceptions of an Influence Agent. Journal of Consumer Research, 27 ( June), 69–83. d’Astous, A. and Seguin, N. (1999). Consumer reactions to product placement strategies in television sponsorship. European Journal of Marketing, 33(9/10), 896–910. Friestad, M. and Wright, P. (1995). The Persuasion Knowledge Model: How People Cope with Persuasion Attempts. Journal of Consumer Research. 22 (June). 62-74. Garza, S.D. (2003). The Influence of Movie Genre on Audience Reaction to Product Placement, Unpublished Master Thesis, Texas Tech University. Gupta, P.B. and Gould, S.J. (1997). Consumers’ perceptions of the ethics and acceptability of product placements in movies: product category and individual differences. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 19 (1), pp. 37–50. Gupta, P.B. and Lord. K.R. (1998). Product Placements in Movies: the Effect of Prominence and Mode on Audience Recall. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 20, 1, 47-59. Hackley, C. (2003) IMC and Hollywood - What Brand Managers Need to Know. Admap 38 (10). pp. 44-47. Hernandez, M.N., Chapa, S. Minor, M.S. and Barranzuela, F. (2004). Hispanic Attitudes toward Advergames: A Proposed Model of their Antecedents. Journal of Iteractive Advertising Vol. 5, No: 1. Hudson, S. and Hudson, D. (2006). Branded Entertainment: A New Advertising Technique or Product Placement in Disguise? Journal of Marketing Management 22, 489-504 48 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Lord, K.R., and Putrevu, S. (1998). Communicating in Print: A Comparison of Consumer Responses to Different Promotional Formats. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 20, 2, 1-18. Matthes, J., Schemer, C. and Wirth, W. (2007) More than meets the eye –investigating the hidden impact of brand placements in television magazines. International Journal of Advertising, 26(4), pp. 477–503. McCarty, J.A., (2004). Product Placement: The Nature of the Practice and Potential Avenues of Inquiry, The Psychology of Entertainment Media: Blurring the Lines Between Entertainment and Persuasion, Edited by L. J. Shrum, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, New Jersey, London. Ong, B.S., and Meri, D. (1994). Should product placement in movies be banned? Journal of Promotion Management 2(3–4), 159–175. Russell, A.C., Norman A.T. and Heckler, S.E., (2004). The Consumption of Television Programming: Development and Validation of the Connectedness Scale. Journal of Consumer Research Vol. 31, June 2004. Russell, C.A. (2002). Investigating the effectiveness of product placements in television shows: the role of modality and plot connection congruence on brand memory and attitude. Journal of Consumer Research 29 (3), pp. 306–319. Russell, C.A. and Belch, M. (2005) A Managerial Investigation into the Product Placement Industry. Journal of Advertising Research 45, pp 73-92. Schneider, L.P. and Cornwell, T.B (2005). Cashing in on Crashes via Brand Placement in Computer Games. International Journal of Advertising 24(3), 321–343. van Reîjmersdal, E., Neijens, P.C. and Smit, E.G. (2005). Readers' Reactions to Mixtures of Advertising and Editorial Content in Magazines. Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising, 27, 2, 39-53. van Reijmersdal, E.A, Neijens, P.C. and Smit, E.G. (2009). A New Branch of Advertising Reviewing Factors That Influence Reactions to Product Placement Journal of Advertising Research Vol. 49, No: 4, p.429. Vollmers, S., and Mizerski, R. (1994). A review and investigation into the effectiveness of product placements in films. In K. W. King (Ed.), Proceedings of the 1994 conference of the American Academy of Advertising (pp. 97–102). Athens, GA: American Academy of Advertising. 49 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1362 Title A name given to the resource Can Product Placement be Used for Advertising Purposes in Turkish Series: Case of “Aşk-I Memnu” Necklace (Testing a Measurement Instrument) Author Author Mehmet, Özer Demir Abstract A summary of the resource. Product placement has become an important promotional mix element in recent years in Turkey. Since audiences are skeptical towards commercials, advertisers have begun to turn to a variety of alternative advertising channels in order to reach customers. One of the channels they have begun to use more frequently in recent years is product placement, the placing of branded products in movies and television programs alike. The aim of the study is testing a research instrument appropriate for measuring product placement formation. The study proposes existence of relationship between connectedness to the series and attitude towards product placements in the series, and researches connectedness dimensions having effect on product placement. Research is carried out in Antalya in 2011 with convenience sampling of 300 respondents. The questionnaire form is an adopted version of connectedness scale developed by Russell et al. (2004). Keywords: Product Placement, Brand Placement, Advertising, Promotion Mix, Soap Operas, TV Series. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/86949f713759085f179d21413fc81082.pdf f0b66d5f7c2283996705021b6da41951 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo HBase web page - hbase.apache.org, Hadoop web page - hadoop.apache.org, Jxpath web page - commons.apache.org/jxpath, JacksonJSON web page - jackson.codehaus.org The investigation of optimum welding parameters in connecting high alloyed X53CrMnNiN219 and X45CrSi93 steels by friction welding Mehmet Uzkut1, Bekirsadik Ünlü, Selimsarper Yilmaz2, Mustafa Akdağ3 1Celal Bayar University, Vocational High School, Department of Machinery, 45400, Turgutlu,Manisa, Turkey 2Celal Bayar University, Vocational High School, Department of Machinery, 45020, Manisa, Turkey 3Gediz University,Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Menemen, Izmir, Turkey E-mails: mehmet.uzkut@bayar.edu.tr, bekir.unlu@bayar.edu.tr, selim.yilmaz@bayar.edu.tr, mustafa.akdag@gediz.edu.tr Abstract In this study, different welding parameters are applied to two different steels with high alloys and mechanical and metallographical investigations were performed. Thus, the optimum welding parameters were investigated for these materials and working conditions. 12.30 diameter steel bars made up of 1.4871 (X53CrMnNiN219) & 1.4718 (X45CrSi93) steel were used as experimental material. The material loss increased with increase in friction and rotating pressure. The highest hardness and fracture energy were obtained in B5 group. Keywords: Friction Welding, Welding Parameters, Microstructure. 1. INTRODUCTION Joining has increasingly been used in the material technology because materials having different mechanical properties need to be efficiently joined to increase material’s performance. The most suitable method of joiningtwo different alloyed steel is welding(Anık, 1983). After welding process, the properties of welding zone naturally becomedifferent from the properties of alloyed steels andthis difference maycause someproblems.The use melting welding methods, among many kinds of welding methods, has also increased these 29 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo problems(Yılmaz, 1993). Phase diagrams and properties of joining materials are important factors in determining welding properties (Bargel and Schulze, 1988). Some problems also arise because the materials to be joined are different alloys and some additionalcomponents are needed to effectively join them. Many different zonesappear in connecting zone depending on composition and material properties (Yılmaz, 1993). Deposite remain of the melting welding methods,welding faults of porosity and inside tightens of cooling are the important disadvantages of these methods and they reduce the strength of welding. Therefore,solid statewelding methods are more suitable sincemelting welding faults do not significantly occur there(Tülbentçi and Yılmaz, 1989). Vill(1962) has conducteda study to determine optimum conditions of friction welding parameters. He has determined that friction pressure coming from welding parameters are of great importance,the cycling number of turning component’s sensitivity is the least paramaterand it can be fixed in a wide space depending on the materials used. Moreover,Tyleotehas determined that friction pressure affects the heat of space surface and supplies the required moment.He has also determined that forging pressure and cycling number are the most important parameters (Tylecote, 1968). It can be said that low welding periods have supplied the best welding zone in low carbon steels,which requires applying forging pressure of one second as well as applying high forging pressure (Lucas, 1971). Low welding periods andhigh forging pressure values forma thinner grainular structure for low carbon steels (Duffin and Crossland, 1971).In notch impact test results, better mechanical propertieshave been obtained onhigh cycling numbers between 1200 and 4200 rpm according to other constant parameters (Voinov, 1972). A friction pressure of 30-65 MPa, and a forgingpressure of 75-140 MPamust be applied for low carbon steels and a friction pressure of 70-210 MPaand a forging pressure of 100-420 MPa for medium carbon steels (Welding Handbook, 1980). In another study, Ishibashi et al. (1993) determined that forging pressure value must be appliedtwice as much as that of friction pressure for stainless steels.Ina study on tool steels, it has been advised that the welding temperature and in turn friction pressure should be high enough so that no faults on welding zones will occur(Tanicheva, et al., 1989). Initally, conventional arc welding and then solid state joining methods were applied on welding processes of stainless steels (Gooch et al., 1996). Today, friction welding is one of the solid state joining techniques used widely for stainless steels. Bol’shokov et al.(1972) reported that friction welding on vacuum condition improved mechanical properties of joined materials. With the technological development in the valve manufacturing industry, the exhaust valves of normal and diesel engines are manufactured from two different types of steels. The “handling” parts of exhaust valves are manufactured from 1.4718 (X45CrSi93) steel which is tough, ductile and resistant against wearing due to friction while the “head “parts are manufactured from 1.4871 (X53CrMnNiN219) steel which shows a very good resistance against oxidation, and hot corrosion caused by lead oxide and other burning products. Today, this steel couple is joined by friction welding(Uzkut, 1999). Friction welding is one of the methods which have some considerable share among the other conventional welding methods. The most important parameters in friction welding are friction time, friction pressure, forging time, forging pressure and rotational speed (Uzkut, 1999; Şahin and Akata, 2003). Welding faults in the valve manufacturingmay occur due to thermal and mechanical stresses. Therefore, optimizing welding parameters are essential. The determination of optimum welding parameters and joining zones will minimize these faults on welded parts (Uzkut, 30 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1999). In this study, optimum welding parameters of high alloyed X53CrMnNiN219 and X45CrSi93 steels used in automotive industry were determined by joining friction welding and by doing tensile, notch impact, metallography and microhardness tests. 2. EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES X53CrMnNiN219 (1.4871) and X45CrSi93 (1.4718) high alloyed steels were used in the experiments. Standards of materials are shown in Table 1,chemical composition of materials in Table 2-3,standard measurements of welded tensile samples in Table 4, mechanical properties of materials in Table 5.Rotation number (n) and forging time (t2) werekept constant and friction time (t1), friction pressure (P1), and forging pressure (P2) had different levels. Constant parameters and values for 12.3 mm diameter were determined as follows: Constant parameters and values are as follows: experimental bar diameter is12.3 mm (H9), during welding process,rotation number of spining parts is 3000 rpm, during machining process,rotation number of spining parts is 1500 rpm, friction contact time is 0.4 s, brake delaying time is 0.1 s, forging delaying time is 0.8 s, forging time is 2 s, friction pressure rising time is 1 s, forging pressure rising timeis 1 s, and waiting time at the end of forging time is 1 s. The levels of studied parameters were as follows: friction time (2.70, 3.70, or 4.70 s), friction pressure (138, 207, or 276), and forging pressure (345, 414, or 480 MPa).The specimens subjected to friction pressureof 138 MPa is called group A, and friction pressure of 207 MPa group B, and friction pressure of 276 MPa group C. Tensile test, one of mechanical tests, was carried on by 5 tone capacity universal 1114 model, INSTRON type depending on TS-138 (Turkish Standard). Tensile velocity was taken as 1 mm/min at tensile test. Notch impact test was carried on at 25 0C depending on TS-269. Notch was opened on welding line as standart. Some suitable standart measurements were applied on specimen. 1.4871 materials were etched for 10 s and 1.4718 materials at 3 s by 5 % nital on optical tests. These tests were carried on in CARL ZEISS JENA type optical microscope atDokuzEylül University laboratories (Izmir, Turkey). A 1360 pyramide point Vickers type was used for microhardness tests. Microhardness tests were carriedout at distance of 10 µm to welding and parallel to welding cross-section on this study 80 g load was used for these tests; however, a load from 25 g to 100 gcould be applied on microhardness tester. Microhardness tests were carried out in CARL ZEISS JENA type microhardness tester at DokuzEylül University labaratories. SEM tests were carried out on by using JEOL JXA-733 type at DokuzEylül University laboratories (Izmir, Turkey). Table 1. Standards of materials. Material 31 DIN W.Nr AF NORM BS EURO NORM X53CrMnNiN 219 1,4871 Z52CMN2109 349S52 X53CrMnNiN219 X45CrSi93 1,4718 Z45CSİ10 401S45 X45CrSi8 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 2. Chemical composition of 1.4871 material. Chemical composition (% wt) Material C Si Mn Cr Ni N P S 1.4871(theor ical) 0.480.58  0.30 710 20 22 3.25 4.5 0.38 0.5 Max. 0.050 Max. 0.030 1.4871 (analysis) 0.50 0.27 8.1 9 20.11 3.90 0.4 0.025 0.001 Table 3. Chemical composition of 1.4718 material. Chemical composition (% wt) Material C Si Mn Cr P S 1.4718 (theorical) 0.40 - 0.50 2.70 3.30  0.80 8 - 10 Max. 0.040 Max. 0.030 1.4718 (analysis) 0.42 2.73 0.47 8.71 0.017 0.001 Table 4. Standard measurements of welded tensile samples. h (mm) d0 (mm) d1 (mm) 6 8 25 (l0 = 10 d0) l 0 (mm) l v (mm) l t (mm) 60 66 125 Table 5.Mechanical properties of 1.4871 and 1.4718 materials. Material Diamet er Lengt h 1.4871 (standard) (mm) 12.25812.300 (m) 3.54.0 32 Mechanical properties Circularr Surface y (mm) Roughness Max. 0.03 (m) Max. 0.8 Hardn Tensile ess Strength (HRC Max. ) 40 (MPa) 950-1250 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.4871 (test) 12.28012.290 4.0 0.0050.02 0.3-0.8 37-40 1120 1.4718 (standard) 12.25812.300 3.54.0 Max. 0.03 Max. 0.8 29-35 950-1125 1.4718 (test) 12.28012.290 4.0 0.0050.01 0.6-0.8 29-32 1030 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3. 1. Mechanical Properties When tensile tests results were examined, mechanical properties of group B were betterthan those of group A or C. The basicrepresentative property of groupB is that friction pressure is 207 MPa. Break out did not occurin welding zone on B4, B5, and B6. Common determining characteristic of this group is that friction pressure (P1) and forging pressure (P2)values were takenconstant whereas friction time is variable on these groups. Yield and tensile strength were similar. As a result, it can be seen that friction time is a determining parameter among these three groups. In determining optimum welding parameters,breaking point in tensile bar, the suitability of post-tensioning yield and tensile strength values for acceptable values of materials and percentage of extent quantity havesignificance.Fractures in 1.4871 materialoccurred out of welding zone in group B5. Yield strength was 854 MPa, tensile strength value was1081 MPa. When notch impact tests results are examined,it has been determined the energy quantities spent to break the samples of group B are more than those of the other two groups and the samples of B5 in group B spent the highest energy quantity. Based on microhardnessresuts,microhardness values did not increase ingroup B5 samples, but microhardness valuessignificantly increased 4 mmaway from centre. The microhardness value was 400 HV in outer cross section for 1.4871 materials,while it was 439 HV in centre. Microhardnesswas 483 HV in the centrewhile it was 439 HV in outer cross section for 1.4718 materials. The cooling was the slowestin the centre of materials. Consequently, element diffusion in materials centretakes much longer time. In addition, movement and mechanical orientationwere alsominimalin the center due to material deformation. Therefore, it is determined that the highest microhardness value is in the center of materials.The variations of microhardness values depending on distant are shown in Fig. 1.The hardnessdistributions were determined by using optical and scanning electron microscope. Fig.1. Variation of hardness of B5 sample in welding zone. 700 P1=207 MPa, P2=414 MPa, t1= 3.70 s 600 400 300 Welding interface 33 Hardness (HV 0.08) 500 200 1.4871 steel 100 0 -300 -200 -100 1.4718 steel 0 Distance from welding centre (μm) 100 200 300 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Total length shortening quantity (mm) Length shortening quantities on post welding and effects of parameters on length shortening are explained by graphics depending on parameter groups in Fig. 2. As seen in figures, variation on length shortenings depending on welding parameters is linear. A significant material loss due to burning occurs in 1.4718 materialson friction welding joints. Total material loss reaches the highest values in the parameter groups having the highest friction time. When we regard all these criteria; A9, B3, B5, B6, B8, B9, C4, C7 and C8, parameter groups differ from other groups according to the length shortening quantities. Efficient length shortening quantities can notbe obtained for 2.7 s friction time. By increasing friction pressure and forging pressure values it is determined that there is much more material loss in the groupssubjected to4.7 s friction time. Length shortening quantities could not be obtained at low friction time in group B samples. In the light of these results, group B5 can be considered ideal for length shortening. 16 14 12 P1=138 MPa 10 P1=207 MPa 8 P1=276 MPa 6 4 2 0 300 350 400 450 500 Forging pressure (MPa) Fig.2. Quantities of total length shortening depending on friction pressure for varry friction time (P2= 414 MPa). In joining A6061 alloy and SUS304 stainless steel by friction welding, it has been observed that high forging pressures affect the joining strength positively and tensile strength of notched samples increaseswith forging pressure and maximum effectiveness of joining is seen as 87-93 %percent (Ochi etal., 1996). In another study, energy absorption of normalized welding joining is rather more than a normalized one, and energy transition temperature has been determined at about 24 0C at normalized welding joining. This temperature is harmonious with temperature on fracture surface. Crack proceeding strength of normalized welding joining is higherthan that of a normalized one. Impact bending strength of normalized welding joining is almost the same as hot processed metal (Kato et al., 1996). Şahin et al.(1996)conducted tensile and microhardness tests, heat and SEM studiesin welding zone to determine heat affected zone (HAZ)metalurgical variations on Al-Al, Al-Steel, and steel-steel using different parameters of friction welding.They reported that welding parameters significantly affected yield, tensile and fracture strength and HAZ zone near the Al was wider on Al-steel joinings. Preperation measures of welding joining must be taken as 34 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1-10 mm per welding joining by considering length shorteningduring surface preperationin welded joints (Anık, 1983). Ogawa et al.(1993)reported high material lossin friction welding of S45C steel, so it has to be examinedfor its economical impact. In this study, low hardness thin grained ferrite, and pearlite layer occured on HAZ. Slope of hardness distribution on joining zone has been determined to be low at wider space. Şahin(2005)determined optimum welding parameters as follows: friction time (4 s), friction pressure (110 MPa) and tensile strength (600 MPa) on high-speed steel (HSS-S6) and medium carbon steel (AISI 1040). He determined hardness of welding zone as 700 HV. Şahin(2007) determined that optimum welding parameters as friction time 9 s, friction pressure 60 MPa and tensile strength 800 MPa on stainless steel (AISI 304). He determined hardness of welding zone as 200 HV. In these studies, the tensile strength of the joints increased with the friction time and pressure, and it raised a maximum, but it decreased for more friction time and pressure (Şahin, 2005; Şahin, 2007). Ateş et al. (2003) determined friction time as 6 s, friction pressure 70 MPa, and tensile strength 850 MPa on MA 956 ironbased superalloy. They determined hardness of welding zone as 700 HV. In this study, tensile strength increased with forging pressure and with friction pressure up to a certain value in HAZ. Özdemir(2005) and Özdemir et al. (2007)determined that hardness of welding zone as about 1000 HV on AISI 304 and AISI 4340 steel.In these studies, for excellent welding parameters “the friction time was held as short as possible, while the rotational speed, friction and forging pressure was chosen as high as possible. Satyanarayana et al.(2005)determined that hardness of welding zone as about 270 HV, and notch tensile strength 690 MPa on AISI 304 and AISI 430 steel.The differences in our results and those of other previous studies may be attributed to the fact that their materials and welding parameters were different from ours. 3. 2. Microstructure Properties When microstructure results are examined, it has been observed that friction time does not cause any noticeable differences in inner microstructure due to low friction pressure ingroup A samples. Heat affected zone (HAZ) is observed to be thicker ingroup C samples. These zones are seen to be much wider especially in the groups, belonging to the values of increasing forging pressure and friction time. Mechanical orientation and wider HAZ are observed on group C5 and 1.4871 materials. Mechanical orientation of grains is certainly seen from central to outer on grains. Certain microstructure and standart thickness HAZ were observed on group B samples (Fig. 3). 35 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Fig.3. Mechanical orientation and Fe2C carburs of B5 sample in welding central (x45). When forging pressure resuts are examined; in the inner structure of groups the high forging pressure values from central to outer mechanical orientation in grains, coming out due to deformation during welding is observed (Fig. 3). This orientation is possible for each of thetwo materials. Standart thickness and more obvious HAZ are seen ingroup B samples (Fig. 4). Fig.4. Grain flattening of B5 sample in HAZ of 1.4871 material (x450). When tensile and notch impact tests results are examined, better mechanical were obtained in group B5 samplesas compared with the other groups. When optical microscope images of group B5 are examined; martensitic microstructure of 1.4718 materials waspresent at a distant zone of welding. Austenitic microstructure of 1.4871 materials is seen at a zone way from welding. Black zones occured in microstructures are Fe2C carburs on austenit grain boundaries and some austenit grains. SEM image of 1.4718 and 1.4871 material microstructure in a zone away from welding was shown as 4000 times magnified in Fig. 24. SEM image of welding interface in two materials was shown as 4000 times magnified in Fig. 5. 36 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Fig.5. SEM image of welding interface in two materials (x4000). Şahin(2005; 2007), Ateş et al. (2007), Özdemir(2005) and Özdemir et al. (2007), and Satyanarayana et al. (2005)observed thin grained structure in welding zone, and observed grain orientation in HAZ in medium carbon steels, and stainless steels.Ateş et al. (2007) reported that HAZ and grain orientation in microstructure increased with increasing friction pressure. They reported that HAZ and grain orientation in microstructure decreased with increasing forging pressure. In our study, similar microstructure results were obtained. 4. CONCLUSIONS In this study, the optimum welding parameters were determined in materials during the connection of X53CrMnNiN219 and X45CrSi93 steels by friction welding.Based on the findings of this research, the following conclusions can be drawn: 1. Efficient length shortening quantities can not be obtained in the samples in which friction time is applied as 2.7 s. It has been determined that there has been more material loss with increased friction pressure and forging pressure in the groups where the highest friction time was 4.7 s. While the ideal length shortening is 7-10 mm, it is 8.85 mm for B5. 2. Break from welding zone is not observed on the samples of group B5 on tensile tests. For tensile properties, B5 parameter group has been determined as an ideal parameter group. 3. The highest fracture energy (toughness) on tensile tests was observed in group B5. 4. Profiles hardness of A group occured on near 1.4871 material of welding zone, and the highest value of hardness of these samples occured near 1.4718 material of welding zone. The slope of hardness profile on group B and C was much higher than that of group A in the welding zone. 5. Carbur formations were clearly observed along direction lines of HAZ and mechanical orientations on group B5 optical micrscope images. Austenitic structure occured on microstructure distant welding zone 1.4718 and martensitic structure occured on 1.4871 material on distant welding zone. Next to welding zone, gain shortening and grain flatness occured as perpendicular deformation in 1.4871 materials. 37 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 6. Optimum welding parameters;friction time(t1) was determined as 3.7 s, friction pressure (P1) was determined as 207 MPa, forging pressure (P2) was determined 414 MPa on B5 group and joining by friction welding 1.4871 and 1.4718 materials. REFERENCES Anık, S., 1983, Welding Technology, (in Turkish), İstanbul, 259-69. Ateş, H., Türker, M., Kurt, A., 2007, Effect of friction pressure on the properties of friction welded MA956 iron-based superalloy, Materials and Design, 28: 948-53. Bargel, H. J., Schulze, G., (Güleç, Ş., Aran, A.), 1988, Materials, (in Turkish), Gebze. Bol’shokov, M. V., 1972, The vacuum friction welding of high – melting and high – temperature alloys, Auto Welding; 60-2. Duffin, F. D., Crossland, B., 1971, Friction welding with sudden relase of the fixed component, Advances in welding processes, Solid phase joining processes, proceeding of the conference, The welding Institute, Abington Hall, Cambridge, 25-33. Gooch, T. G., Jones, R. L., Woolin, P., 1996, Welding processes for stainless steels, Sheet Metal Industrial n Supplies, 5. Ishibashi, A., Ezde, S., Tanaka, S., 1983, Studies on fricton welding of carbon and alloy stells, Bulletin of the JSME, 26: 1080-87. Kato, M., Kagaya, C., Kawaguchi, Y., Tokisue, H., 1996, Influence of normalization on impact fracture behavior of friction welded joints, Society Mechanical Engineering, 62: 22-36. Lucas, W., 1971, Process parameters and friction welds, Met. Const. and British, Welding Journal, 7: 293- 97. Ochi, H., Ogawa, K., Yamamoto, Y., Hashinaga, S., Suga, Y., Ohnishi, T., 1996, Static strength of friction welded joint of 6061 aluminium alloy to SUS 304 stainless stell, Journal of Japan Institute of Light Met, 46: 500-04. Ogawa, K., Yamaguchi, H., Kaga, S., Sakaguchi, K., 1993, Optimization of friction welding condition for S45C carbon stell using a statistical technique, Transaction of the Japan Welding Society, 24: 47-3. Özdemir, N., 2005, Investigation of the mechanical properties of friction welded joints between AISI 304 and AISI 4340 steel as a function rotational speed, Materials Letters, 59: 2504-509. Özdemir, N., Sarsılmaz, F., Hasçalık, A., 2007, Effect of rotational speed the interface properties of friction welded AISI 304 to 4340 steel, Materials and Design, 28: 301-07. 38 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Satyanarayana, V. V., Reddy, G. M., Mohandas, T., 2005, Dissimilar metal friction welding of austenitic-ferritic stainless steels, Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 169: 12837. Şahin, M., Akata, H. E., 2003, Joining with friction welding of plastically deformed steel, Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 142: 239-246. Şahin, A. Z., Yilbas, B. S., Al-Garni, A. Z., 1996, Friction welding of Al-Al, Al-stell, and stell samples, Journal of Materials Engineering Performance, 5: 89-9. Şahin, M., 2005, Joining with friction welding of high-speed steel and medium-carbon steel, Journal of Materials Processing Technology, 168: 202-10. Şahin, M., 2007, Evaluation of the joint-interface properties of austenitic-stainless steels (AISI 304) joined by friction welding, Materials and Design, 28: 2244-250. Tanicheva, O. N., Orlova, N. E., Kyun, L. A., 1989, Nature of the defect “bright ring” forming in friction welding of tool stell, Materials Science and Heat Treatment, 3: 200-02. Tülbentçi, K., Yılmaz, M., 1989, Solid state welding of different tool, II. Symposium of welding”, (in Turkish), Istanbul Technical University, İstanbul, 303-14. Tylecote, R. Y., 1968, The solid phase welding of metals, Edward Arnold Ltd., London. Uzkut, M., 1999, The determination of optimum welding parameters of high alloyed two different steels on joining by friction welding, PhD Thesis, (in Turkish), Manisa. Vill, V. I., 1962, Friction Welding of Metals, AWS, Newyork. Voinov, V. P., 1972, Fatique strength of friction – welded joints between steels 20 and 40Kh, Welding Prod., 7: 51-4. Welding Handbook, 1980, Resistance and solid state welding and other joining processes, AWS, Miami, 58-76: 239-62. Yılmaz, M., 1993, Investigation of welding zone different tool steels on friction welding, PhD Thesis, (in Turkish), Y.T.Ü., İstanbul, 1-55. 39 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1146 Title A name given to the resource The investigation of optimum welding parameters in connecting high alloyed X53CrMnNiN219 and X45CrSi93 steels by friction welding Author Author Mehmet, Uzkut Abstract A summary of the resource. In this study, different welding parameters are applied to two different steels with high alloys and mechanical and metallographical investigations were performed. Thus, the optimum welding parameters were investigated for these materials and working conditions. 12.30 diameter steel bars made up of 1.4871 (X53CrMnNiN219) & 1.4718 (X45CrSi93) steel were used as experimental material. The material loss increased with increase in friction and rotating pressure. The highest hardness and fracture energy were obtained in B5 group. Keywords: Friction Welding, Welding Parameters, Microstructure. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/437945406692325f49e4468bfd348c79.pdf b54b6fc93a21c12dc78c4c8082da6209 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Sanfey, P. (2010) South-Eastern Europe: Lessons from the Global Economic Crisis, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Working Paper No. 113. Sewel, J. (2011) The Balkan Economies: Regional Roadblocks, European Distractions and Global Crisis, NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Stiblar, F. (2009) The Impact of the Global Crisis on Montenegro and the Western Balkans, published by Central Bank of Montenegro. UN. (2009) The Global Financial Crisis: Impact and Response of the Regional Commissions The Importance Of Aphrodisias Ancient City In Sustainable Economical Development Matcicek Zekeriya1, Pajo Aykut2 1Adnan Menderes University,Aydın, 2Kırklareli University,Kırklareli E –mails: zekeriyamatcicek@adu.edu.tr,aykut.pajo@kirklareli.edu.tr Abstract Aphrodisias is an ancient city nearby Karacasu, Aydın. It was established by the name of Goddess Aphrodit. It is a big settlement from the Bronz Age to Bizans time. It has been found baths, agora, stadium, odeon, Aphrodit temple in arceologic excavations. Aphrodisias is known as an important sculpturing centre in first- era, was given sculpturing education in that term.Of all the ancient cities in Anatolia, The Stadium of Aphrodisias is one of the best preserved. Aphrodisias is an ancient city which is famous for its Aphrodit temple especially in Roman age. It is one of the most important archeological places of Turkey with its well-protected movement – buildings now. The excavations started by New York University in 1961 are being continued today, too. The new historical sites have been found in excavations that still last now. These historical sites have been presented in the museum of Aphrodisias. About 125.000 tourists visit Aphrodisias ancient city each year. The visitors come from America and European Countries mostly in spring and autumn. In other hot months, French, Italian and Spanish people visit and Brazilian tourists have visited ancienty city lately. Tourists who come in winter visit mostly for shopping and Aphrodisias ancient city is visited. The avarage age of visitors is quite high. It is preferred by only the participants of cultural tours because Aphrodisias Ancient city is visited according to cultural tourism. These tours reachmostly beginning from İstanbul to Bursa – Çanakkale – İzmir Efes – Kuşadası – Didim Milet and then Aphrodisias – Pamukkale Hierapolis and Antalya. In this research the variation of tourist which visit Aphrodisias ancient city have been determined and it has also been determined how tourists in this community spend their money. The effect of these spendings on economical sustainable development of Turkey and the region where ancient city is has beendetermined. 236 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Keywords : Aphrodisias, Sculpturing education, Aphrodit temple, Karacasu, Ancient city 1.INTRODUCTION Today, negative factors such as excessive urbanization, difficulty in living conditions put big pressures on people who especially live in urban areas. Escape from these pressures reflect on tourism movements and tourism searches based mostly on natural environment replace with the usual concept of tourism which consist of the triangle of sea, sand and sun(Oral et al.1996; Gulez, 1998). Increase of interest to the natural and cultural places necessitates the protection and renewal of natural and cultural areas and the provision of ecological balance. Tourist prefer to goto regions whose original, natural and historical riches are protected, not modern structures, concrete pile soar a nature which has been destroyed. Sustainable tourism is a form of development that cultural integrity, ecological processes, biodiversity and systems which continue life have been sustained by being protected the environment where people are in interaction with without any damage or being chanced and that all resources have been managed to satisfy the economic, social and an esthetic needs of tourists and people who are in the region which has been visited and to provide the needs of future generations. The sustainable development of natural and cultural environment is possible with protection and development. A tourism development based on environmental protection will bring an environment which has developed in economical, social and physical way(Akten et al. 2011) The continuity of natural and cultural valves is of great importance for continuity of Karacasu’s economy in the future. In this study, the importance of Aphrodisias ancient city in sustainable economy and the reasons of continuity of country’s economy have been examined. 1.1.SUSTAINABILITY “Sustainability”, as meaning of word, expresses the situation of being continuity and seamlessness. The concept of livability has to be evaluated wits sustainability in ecosystem, management, services energy or area-transitivity, feelings and economy income (Buyukyegen, 2008). The concept of sustainability has firstly emerged at the Conference on human environment of United Nations in Stockholm in 1972(Newman et al. 1999). At this conference 113 countries have given an undertaking that they start to environmental cleaning and have decided that environmental problems won’t be able to be categorized not only as air pollution, water pollution and chemical contamination and it has also been revealed that the necessity of radioactive substances that affect everyone are not released everywhere(Aktas, 2007). Sustainability is to ensure to continue its existence non-stop without consuming by overuse or overload to main resources of the vital link, without deterioration or decay of function of a society, ecosystem or a system which has continuity. Sustainability is an essential 237 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo precondition for sustainable development in the use of potentials such as sail, water, surface and underground riches, flora as natural resource (Tozar, 2006). The sustainable development of natural and cultural environment is possible with protection and development. In general meaning, the protection of natural and cultural environment is the transfer of these values for future generations. The success of renewal integrated protection depends on the realization without causing social fragmentation and disrupts the health of social structure which contains. A health protection policy has to take historical, natural and cultural heritage into social life and integrate with it (Buyukyegen, 2008). The main purpose of development of sustainable tourism is the economic development and protection of environmental valves as a result of tourism activities. At this point(Gezici, 2008);        To develop environment, economy and tourism with an increasing importance as a part of each other. To increase the quality of the environment. To improve the life quality of local people. To ensure high quality - standards for tourists. To integrate tourism with other economic sectors. To ensure equality in development. A concept of sustainable tourism which includes very comprehensive targets such as to guarantee the protection of the environment for future generations. 2. SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY AND KARACASU 2.1. The Geographical Structure of Karacasu The County of Karacasu which is between Karıncalı Mountain in the west of it and Baba Mountain in the east of it located on approximately 40 km - long valley which has a mountains and hilly land. There are cities and countries such as Denizli – Babadağ in the east, Aydın – Bozdoğan in the west, Aydın – Kuyucak in the north, and Denizli – Tavas and Kale in the south of Karacasu located on 90 kilometers distance from the city center. The most important stream of county is Dandalaz which starts from Dedeler Village and pours into Big Menderes River. The altitude of country is 600 meters and the highest point is Karıncalı Mountain. The area of country is 782 km2. The central population of Karacasu is 6200 and it has a total population 21980 together with villages. The climate of country has the characteristics of Mediterian climate. But because the altitude is partially high, winter is colder; summer is cooler and more rainless than the other regions of Aydın. 2.2. Karacasu County’s Economy The country of Karacasu has a big tourism potential. Aphrodisias Museum and historical sites which located in Geyre, a 13 km distance to country is one of the most important museums and historical sites in the world and in Turkey. And it is visited by approximately 200.000 238 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo domestic and foreign tourists per year 159. 367 domestic and foreign tourists visited the museums and historical sites in 2008 and had an income of 187.546 TL. İt has been planned to make repair renovation in all exhibition areas except for Sevgi Gönül Sebsateion Hall for the purpose of performing exhibition layout which has been presented in. Aphrodisias Museum Sevgi Gönül Sebsateion which has entered service since May 2008 and having entirely a contemporary look of museum exhibition. There have already been 12 leather, 25 Ceramic and 7 Olive management in small or medium-sized. At the same time, the management of the olive has been made in the houses. Weaving is a field of endeavor which has been managed as traditionally. There are a great number of fully automatic weaving looms especially in villages of Ataköy, Işıklar, Yeniköy, Palamutçuk and Dikmen. In addition there are restaurant which has been operated by entrepreneurs in the country on the way to Karacasu - Aphrodisias. These restaurants take materials that they use in their foods or meals directly from the farmers can find opportunity of bazaar that they will be able to present their products. They have people of Karacasu work as worker in the excavations and studies made in Aphrodisias. Also they can find the restoration opportunity to employ in restaurants and sale points which have been established in the region. 2.3. The Aphrodisias Tourism The Aphrodisias antique city, which is located in the city of Geyre within Aydın’s Karacasu borough, was one of the most important architecture, arts, sculpture and worship centers of the antique age. The magnificent antique city which is 3 kilometers from Geyre, 13 kilometers from Karacasu and 98 kilometers Aydın city center of different values for ages. Aphrodisias was a rich and cultivated antique city which was famous for worshipping Aphrodite during the Roman era and today, it’s one of the most important archeological sites in Turkey with its well preserved monumental structures. In 1st century B.C. Roman Emperor Augustus put Aphrodisias under his personal protection. Today, the monuments that still stand were built 250 years after his reign. Two forums encircled with columns were planned around the theater and the temple. The most secure stadium in the antique era was located on the northern tip of the city. At the end of the 3rd century A.D. the city became the capitol of Caria, a state of the Roman Empire. The city was encircled by walls in the middle of the 4th century A.D. It started losing its importance at the beginning of the 6th century. The Temple of Aphrodite was turned into a church and the city was completely abandoned in the 12th century. During the digs at the Acropolis Hill Tumulus within the Aphrodisias historical sites, chalcolithic ceramics and obsidian tools that were dated back to 4600 B.C. were uncovered. A cult centered city During the Aphrodisias digs, Lydian style ceramic plates, archaic and classic era settlements were uncovered around the Acropolis Hill Tumulus and the Temple of Aphrodite. During 1st century B.C. in Aphrodisias, the most important antique city of the region, the nature and abundance themed Aphrodisias Aphrodite cult, which was an amalgamation of the Asian Minor goddes Ishtar, Anatolian based goddes Cybele and Greek based Goddes Aphrodite, started to grow and the city was tuned into a cult center after the establishment of the Temple of Aphrodite. During to Byzantium era the city was turned into the primacy of the Caria area. 239 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo According to Byzantium sources the area was conquered 4 times by the Seljuk Dynasty between 11-13th centuries. The lands of Karacasu were inhabited by Turcoman tribes. So the Menteşe Seigniory and later on Aydınoğulları ruled the area. In 1413 Murad II added the lands of Karacasu to the Ottoman Empire. In 1867, Karacasu became a borough of Aydın. The first researches at the antique city were undertaken by Laborde and Texier in 1835 on behalf of the “Society of Dilettanti”. The first digs were made by a French engineer and amateur archeologist by the name of Paul Gaudin between the years 1904-1905. In 1937 an Italian named Giulio Jacopi found the agora of Aphrodisias. During the digs established by Prof.Dr. Kenan Erim on behalf of NYU between the years 1961-1990, many of the artworks we see today have been unearthed and restored. Today, the excavation team headed by Prof.Dr. R.R. Roland Smith on behalf of NYU has been resuming research 1991. The city that was established with the Money of Zoilos In 1st or 2nd century B.C., streets with grilled plans were built in Aphrodisias. The building of the monumental statues that are located in the middle of the city began at the end of 1st century B.C. First expenses were paid by the city’s famous citizen Zoilos. In the first stage, the Temple of Aphrodite, North Agora and the Theater was built. In the beginning of 1st century A.D. the center of the city was expanded with a second forum that was built between old agora and the theatre. Also at the same time, a huge temple complex called Sebasteion that was dedicated to the Julia Claudius family was built to the north of the agora. At the end of the 1st and during the 2nd century many new buildings were established for public use. The most important of these are the Turkish baths that have been built on the west corner of the South agora and dedicated to Emperor Hadrian. We also have to mention the Bouleuterion (a building which housed the council of citizens) which was built on the northern corner of the North agora and the monumental door that leads to the holy space of Aphrodite. We see very few new structures in Aphrodisias between the 3rd and 5th centuries but we know that many of the buildings in the center of city were regularly used and repaired when necessary. The most important architectural Project of the late Roman era is the transformation of the Temple of Aphrodite into a Christian church in 500 A.D. Here are some of the monumental structures that have been unearthed after the digs in Aphrodisias: Temple of Aphrodite, Tetrapylon, Stadium, Odeon, The School of Philosophy, The Pontif Palace, Hadrian baths, The Tiberius Portico, Agora, Basilica, Theatre, Theatre baths, Peristyle and Emperor’s chambers, Sebasteion, Martyrion. The Aphrodisias Museum is the ultimate point of the excavations that have been going on since 1961. The construction of the museum which started in 1971-1972 and finished in 1977 was opened to public on July 21, 1979 with an official reception. The virtuosos of art The real purpose of the Aphrodisias Museum is not only to present its visitors with examples of rich archeological finds but at the same time to accentuate the excellence and variety of the statues that were made in the workshops during Roman and early Byzantium eras. From the quality and abundance of the artwork on display, we can easily conclude that Aphrodisias was once one of the major centers of sculpturing in Asia Minor and Roman Mediterranean. Surely, the existence of with and blue-gray colored marbles that are found on the skirts of Mount Baba on the northeastern part of the region played an important role in this. Between 1st century B.C. and 5th century B.C. the sculptors in Aphrodisias created masterpieces using techniques far more advanced than their time and shown that they were the virtuosos of this art. 240 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo They have produced great statues using Classic Greek and Hellenistics styles and also made extremely unique engravings and decorative reliefs on houses and formal buildings. The artworks of these masters not only reflect Greek or Hellenistic prototypes uniquely (unlike portraits of holy bodies), but they also display a complex approach by emphasizing the inclination of idealizing through realistic decorations. This inclination has become integrated with a unique style and even Baroque style that is clearly visible in the shininess of the body and also the way that the eyes, hands and clothes are sculptured. The master sculptors of Aphrodisias were also experts in architectural decoration, columns that included human and animal figures and acanthus reliefs, wallboard crests, panel busts, reliefs about mythological subjects and many elements that were used for thedecorations of buildings. The galleries of the museum are located around a central courtyard. Starting from the right of the entrance, the museum is toured counter clockwise. The artworks are displayed according to theme rather than chronologically. Each gallery is dedicated to one aspect of Aphrodisias sculpturing. In order, the glass case that displays prehistoric findings and the Tondo Gallery, The Empire Gallery, The Zoilos Wings, The Melpomene Gallery, Odeon Gallery, Unfinished Artworks Gallery, glass cased display gallery, Love Gallery (the additional building that was opened in 2008 which displays the bas reliefs of Sebasteion), the Penthesileia Gallery, the Aphrodite gallery, Rank Titles Wing and the inner courtyard are the parts of the museum(ACTM 2011). 3.THE RESEARCHES ON THE EFFECTS OF TOURISM TO THE ECONOMY IN KARACASU The number of visitors which come per year to Aphrodisias ancient city and historical sites and the amount of total income has been established in Table 1. YEAR FOREIGN VISITOR DOMESTIC VISITOR GENERAL TOTAL TOTAL INCOME 1997 192,789 21,457 214,246 71.717.00 TL 1998 180,585 25,945 206,530 128.970.00 TL 1999 64,991 18,609 83,600 93.510.00 TL 2000 111,729 20,195 131,924 306.710.00 TL 2001 143,196 27,168 170,364 665.825.00 TL 2002 120,500 10,360 130,860 968.150.00 TL 2003 80,500 10,495 90,995 622.022.00 TL 2004 92,934 19,918 112,856 448.830.00 TL 2005 118,035 10,508 128,541 337.137.00 TL 2006 69,827 11,432 81,495 202.564.00 TL 2007 97,809 16,255 114,084 141.546.00 TL 241 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2008 130,781 28,586 159,367 187.546.00 TL 2009 116,650 21,020 137,670 223.472.00 TL 2010 127,669 15,776 143,445 242.720.00 TL Table 1: The number of visitors which come per year to Aphrodisias ancient city and historical sites and the amount of total income While the museums and historical site were changing separately until the term of 2004, it was given up from this application as from 2004 and it has been ensured museums and historical site visit by one price. İt has been ensured museum and historical site visit by one price. It is the reason why income numbers were high before 2004. Since 2010 the entry visit of historical site has been customized and awarded to a firm. This firm has made the input control of historical site, security of it and the cleaning jobs. The people from Karacasu have been employed for these jobs. The people who work in store and cafeteria in Aphrodisias museum are also from Karacasu. Approximately %10 of tourists visiting prefer this store and cafeteria. %45 of tourists which do shopping from the store and cafeteria consist of Americans. Also %15 of tourist consist of Spanish, %15 Italian, %5 French, %5 German and the other %15 them consist of other European Countries. While tourists who are 50 years and over prefer Aphrodisias in winter, younger tourist prefer in summer. Tourists that come to Aphrodisias eat their lunch in the restaurants which have been managed on the way Aphrodisias – Karacasu. The tourists which eat in these restaurants consist %35 of Italian, %15 of Spanish, %5 of French, %5 of English, %5 of German, %5 of American and the rest %30 of other nations. Approximately 50 staffs have been employed in these restaurants. Also, ceramic products, textile products with hand weaving, souvenirs have been sold in these restaurants and in sale parts establish close to historical site. 4.RESULT It is clear that how much the economy of Karacasu depends on Aphrodisias historical site and museum. It has been understood that these economic facts which identify with Aphrodisias historical site will be exist in no way if Aphrodisias ancient city doesn’t exist. So it has been provided that Aphrodisias ancient city are widened and transferred for future generations by protecting its today’s state to be sustainable of these economic facts. As the Aphrodisias ancient city exist and its adverts reach to a lot of people, tourist potential will increase. Thus, the county economy will develop and will transfer for future generations as sustainable. REFERENCES Aktaş, E. D. (2007). The quality of life in sustainable development of cities, in the scope of current approaches, Example of Kocaeli. Gebze High-Tech-Institute, Institute of engineering and science, Master’s thesis, Gebze. 242 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Akten, M. & Akten, S. (2011). The sustainable concept of Tourism; Example of Sarıgöl 1. Symposium of National Sarıgöl country and values, Sarıgöl. Büyükyeğen, G. (2008). Edirne city center and it’s close environment. The evaluation of recreational resource values in the context of sustainability, Zonguldak Karaelmas University Institute of scierse, Department of land scape architecture, Master’s Thesis, Bartın. Gezici, F. (1998). The Impact of tourism actions fort he purpose of sustainable regional development. A comparative research on Turkey. ITU the Institute of Science, Departmentof urban and regional planning, Istanbul. Newman, P. & Kenworhy, J. (1999). Sustainability and cities; overcoming, automobile, Dependence. Oral, S. & Şenbük, U. (1996). Structural evaluation of tourist regions in terms of sustainable tourism. 19. World Town Planning Day, Colloqium proceedings, MSU Broadcast part of the city and regional planning, Istanbul. Tozar, T. (2006). Ecological Planning methods developed for sustinability of natural Resources, Master’s Thesis, Yildiz Technical University, Institute of science, Department of Urban and regional planning, Istanbul. ACTM- Aydın Culture & Tourism Magazine, 2011, 2, 40-48 Economic Dimension Of The Environmental Policies Applied In Turkey And Its Potential Effects On Sustainable Development Mevlüt Karabiçak, Serpil Ağcakaya Abstract The purpose of the paper is to analyse the economic dimension of environmental policies still being applied in Turkey and to research the potential effects of sustainable development. In 1987 Bruntland Report was published by UN World Commission on Environment and Development and attention on sustainable development was attracted. In the aforementioned report, against the ever deteriorating environmental problems, the necessities of establishing the vital bridge between environmental development and economic development and the sustainability of development are accepted. The first precaution coming to mind for preventing environmental destructions that causes crucial costs for national economies is the efficient and productive use of current resources and the establishment of an optimal equilibrium between current and future generations in terms of the use of resources. Being sensitive in terms of the principle of sustainable development in the formation of environmental policies is accepted to be an important approach for the prevention of environment. Although the sustainable development endeavours cause significant costs, it is observed that new policies are constantly formed in terms of environment. In the scope of the paper, the potential effects of environmental policies that aim to decrease the negative effects created by the destruction of environment and to turn the world into a more habitable area on sustainable development are analysed through national and international data. 243 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1329 Title A name given to the resource The Importance Of Aphrodisias Ancient City In Sustainable Economical Development Author Author Matcicek , Zekeriya Abstract A summary of the resource. Aphrodisias is an ancient city nearby Karacasu, Aydın. It was established by the name of Goddess Aphrodit. It is a big settlement from the Bronz Age to Bizans time. It has been found baths, agora, stadium, odeon, Aphrodit temple in arceologic excavations. Aphrodisias is known as an important sculpturing centre in first- era, was given sculpturing education in that term.Of all the ancient cities in Anatolia, The Stadium of Aphrodisias is one of the best preserved. Aphrodisias is an ancient city which is famous for its Aphrodit temple especially in Roman age. It is one of the most important archeological places of Turkey with its well-protected movement – buildings now. The excavations started by New York University in 1961 are being continued today, too. The new historical sites have been found in excavations that still last now. These historical sites have been presented in the museum of Aphrodisias. About 125.000 tourists visit Aphrodisias ancient city each year. The visitors come from America and European Countries mostly in spring and autumn. In other hot months, French, Italian and Spanish people visit and Brazilian tourists have visited ancienty city lately. Tourists who come in winter visit mostly for shopping and Aphrodisias ancient city is visited. The avarage age of visitors is quite high. It is preferred by only the participants of cultural tours because Aphrodisias Ancient city is visited according to cultural tourism. These tours reachmostly beginning from İstanbul to Bursa – Çanakkale – İzmir Efes – Kuşadası – Didim Milet and then Aphrodisias – Pamukkale Hierapolis and Antalya. In this research the variation of tourist which visit Aphrodisias ancient city have been determined and it has also been determined how tourists in this community spend their money. The effect of these spendings on economical sustainable development of Turkey and the region where ancient city is has beendetermined. Keywords : Aphrodisias, Sculpturing education, Aphrodit temple, Karacasu, Ancient city Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/faa640e764753698cc4d74d08038866d.pdf 47c90557b50c306b35a474516070933b PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Yavuz, G. and Serdaroğlu U. ( 2010) “Kalkınma ve Kadın (veya toplumsal cinsiyet) İlişkilendirilişinin Değişimindeki Kavşaklar” in U. Serdaroğlu (ed.) İktisat ve Toplumsal Cinsiyet, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara. Yumuş, A. (2011) Kalkınma Planları Çerçevesinde Toplumsal Cinsiyet Eşitliği Anlayışının Ekonomik, Toplumsal ve Siyasal Boyutları, T.C. Başbakanlık Kadının Statüsü Genel Müdürlüğü Yayınları, Ankara. Determinants Of Turkey Current Account Deficit: An Econometric Analysis M. Metin Dam, İsmet Göçer,Şahin Bulut,Mehmet Mercan Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences Department of Economy Abstract The main causes of the current account deficit in Turkey; the foreign trade deficit, the high ratio of intermediate goods imports, high oil prices and Turkey's energy import dependence, lack of domestic savings, foreign direct investment and low tourism revenues. In this study, the causes of the current account deficit and current account deficit financing structure were examined. In addition, the determinanats of Turkey current account deficit wereanalyzed via VAR methods using the data of 2002-2011 monthly current account deficit, net export, interest on external debt, transfer payments and costs of tourism. As a result of the study, According to variance discrimination results obtained from VAR model composed under this roof, current account deficit is determined by its own shocks in the short term. In addition, current account deficit prediction error variance is determined by tourism expenditures and foreign debt interest rate as well as its own variables. Current account deficit is affected by export, foreign debt interest rate, transfer payments and shock given to tourism expenditures. Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Determinants, VAR, Turkey 1.INTRODUCTION 1.1.What is current account deficit? Current account deficit is the difference between the amount of foreign currency getting in and out a country. Export and tourism make up foreign currency income and import and foreign expenditure make up foreign currency expenditure. Current account deficit is reached: the foreign currency obtained from goods export, service export like tourism(e.g the wage income of those working abroad) and manufacture factors are added and the expenditures made in the same category (import, tourism expenditures, the transfer of the profit gained by 111 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo foreigners) are subtracted from total. İf the figures obtained show a value then it means that you have a current account deficit. The economic relations of a country with outsideworld is monitored in a balance-sheet called payment balance. This balance-sheet shows us how much foreign currency surplus or deficit occurred within the term mentioned demonstrating the foreign currency incomes and expenditures in a balanced approach. Payment balance is made up of two sections. Current deficit balance and capital account. Only current deficit balance will be clarified here. Current account balance consists of 4 subbalances. 1. 2. 3. 4. Goods balance Services balance Investment revenues balance Current account transfers Goods Balance: The difference between foreign currency incomes obtained from the sales abroad and foreign currency costs for goods purchased from abroad by a country. Services Balance: The difference between foreign currency incomes obtained from services such as transport, insurance, tourism and foreign currency costs paid for similar services. Investment Revenues Balance: The difference between the profits gained from the FDI, interest revenues from portfolio investments by a particular country etc. and foreigners’ profits from similar investments in that country and foreign currency revenues in foreign currencies. Currentc Account Transfers: The foreign currency input from workers abroad. Therefore, we can formulate current account balance as; Current Account Balance = Goods Balance + Services Balance + Investment Revenue Balance + Current Account Transfers. If the result of this total is minus(-), current account deficit exists. 1.2. What Are The Effect of Current Account on Economy? An economy whose current account is on the rise needs to grow its capital accounts as well. The foreign dependence of an economy whose capital accounts grow increases. One of the most debated issues in Turkish economy is current account deficit. Given that the final goal of macroeconomic policies is to provide an interior and exterior balance in the economy of a particular economy, an un acceptible and unsustainable current deficit will mean gradual deviation from exterior balance, therefore, in this case, the problem needs solving through economic policies. While the provision and maintenance of interior balance means, in general, price stability and exact employment, exterior balance means the payment balance between the total expenditure and revenues of a particular country. Current account deficit can be explained as a deviation related to exterior imbalances in this regard(Telatar, 2011). 1.3.What are the Objectives of this Study? The aim of this study is to analyse the determinants of current account deficit through 2002:M1-2011:M12 data. This issue needs to be discussed and suggestions for solution need 112 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo to be developed because of the fact that current account deficit reached its peak 2011. The study is important in this respect. The rest of the study consists of 6 main sections. In the primary sections are completed that it is introduction, second section determinants of current account deficit in Turkey, the third section up-to-date data regarding current account deficit in Turkey, the fourth section literature, the fifth section analysis and final section. 2.Determinants of Current Account Deficit in Turkey The determinants of current account deficits (CAD) are now at the centre of international macroeconomics with the recent experience of large imbalances of a number of countries including the USA. The empirical literature appears to focus on the determinants and sustainability of CAD in individual countries or the consequences in a cross-section of countries (Özmen, 2005). The determinants of current account balances are of considerable interest in open economy macroeconomics. Alternative theoretical models have different predictions about the factors underlying current account dynamics and about the sign and magnitude of the relationships between current account fluctuations and these determinants(Chinn and Prasad, 2000). Hence, empirical analysis of the sort undertaken in this paper could help discriminate among competing theories. The current account deficit (CA), we define as follows14: CAt = NXt + rtBt + TRt (1) In the equation (1) current account deficit; explained through trade in goods, interest payments on foreign debt and transfer payments. NX t ; net exports of goods and services, Bt ; bills, bonds, equities, loans and physical capital that exceed the net foreign assets (foreign debt of countries, external debt stock), rt ; international interest rate, rt Bt ; net return on net foreign assets (foreign debt of the countries, the interest on foreign debt) and TRt ; represents transfer payments net of public and private sector. NXt = Xt – Mt, part of CAt has the biggest share is the last period in Turkey. When the country is indebted to rt Bt and CAt is negative value adversely affected.Transfer payments are usually made out of small countries, since there is little outsiders, TRt positive affected CAt. According to this definition, the causes of the current account deficit, external debt and interest payments on trade in goods. 3.Up-to-date data regarding current account deficit in Turkey The republic of Turkey produced 57 billion dolar current account deficit from 1923 to 2002. The current account deficit, which was 48,5 billion dolars in 2010, rose to 77,1 billion dollars in late 2011. Figure 1. Current Account Balance (January 2000 - August 2010. GDP ratio,%) 14In this section, Uygur(2004)were the work of the reference analysis. 113 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Source: Central Bank President D. Yilmaz Submission of Plan and Budget Commission of the Parliament (October 2010). Mehmet Simsek, Turkish Finance Minister, points out that current account deficit is an issue that has both structural and cyclical aspects. He also added that domestic demand in Turkey has grown 8-10 times as fast as that of Europe, and surging oil prices and Arab spring in the region caused the current account deficit to rise to an unpredictably high levels. 4.Literature The studies in which current account deficit is analyzed through exterior balance approach was launched by Husted (1992), and he was followed by Milesi-Ferretti and Razin (1996), Fountas and Wu (1999) and Edwards (2001). Khan and Knight (1983), using pooled cross-section time-series analysis for a sample of 32 non-oil developing countries during the period 1973-80. The empirical results suggest the importance of exercising circumspection in attributing to any single cause the current account imbalances experienced by non-oil developing countries during the 1970s. When foreign Exchange rate falls down, export goods’ prices rise and export is badly influenced. And imported goods’ prices relatively fall down and import increases. (Peker Hotunluoğlu, 2009) Edwards (2005) examined the relation between US dolar and US current account deficit. It was pointed out in the analysis that foreign demand for dollars will lower current accoun deficit and in the near future US foreign deficit will decrease the rate of growth at a remarkable scale. Aristovnik (2006) reached the conclusion in his research on transition economies that, in case current account transactions deficit surpasses 5% of GDP, eonomies generally have trouble with foreign sustainability. Yamak and Korkmaz (2007), in his study in which he used a data set of 2001:04-2005:09 period and modern times series techniques, reached the conclusion that Turkish current account deficit is sustainable in weak form and there is a co-integration relation between export-import series. Peker (2009) analyzed the sustainability of current account transaction deficit in Turkey through co-integration method using 1992:01-2007:12 period monthly data. As a result of the survey, he found out that current account deficit can be sustained at alow level, though a longterm relation between export and import series exists, co-integration co-efficient is 0,8926 114 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo consequently, he concluded that foreign currency revenues are lower than foreign currency expenditures. Oktar and Dalyancı (2011) found out that the sustainability of Turkish economical growth depends on maintenance of current account deficit. He also examined the relation between monetary policies and current account transactions for Turkish economy through time series, and found out that there is no Granger causality between Central Bank of Turkish Republic policy interest rate and current account transactions balance in the short term and an adverse co-integration relation in the long-run. Erdil Sahin (2011) emphasized that current account deficit because of high rate growth depending on domestic demand and execessively valuable Turkish Lira should be recovered through new structural reform policies based on firm growth Fundamentals. He concluded that current account deficit financed by short-term capital entrances like in Turkey, however, is unsustainable due to capital exit risk, whatever size it is. Chen (2011) examined the sustainability of current account deficit on economy policy in G-7 countries through econometric methods and found out that while current account deficit is sustainable for Germany and Japan in the long run, he couldn’t reach positive results for Canada, France, Italy, UK and USA. Kim, Min, Hwang and Mcdonald (2009) concluded in the studies they conducted on the 19812003 period quarter data of far-east countries such as Indonesia, Korea, Malasia, the Phillippines and Thailand that those developing countries had a high growth rate and their current account deficit was sustainable. 5.ANALYSIS 5.1.Data Set 2002:M1-2011:M12 covering the period of this study, five variables were used. What variables stand for; (CAD), the level of current account deficit, (NX), net exports (FID), interest on external debt, (TP) transfer payments and (TE) represents the costs of tourism. Variables were obtained from Central Bank of Turkey Electronic Data Delivery System, balance of payments detailed presentation part. As a result of the analysis, which variable or variables were effective on the variables that detrmine the current account deficit was analyzed. Estimates for all the test and computer package Eviews 5.1 program was used. 5.2.Method Without any restrictions on the VAR models, structural models can be delivered between the dynamic relationships and for this reason, often used in time series (Keating, 1990:453 - 454). Since the VAR model which is most frequently used in Time series of economic studies does not require inernal-external distinction, in any way out of economic theory, it differs from simultaneous equation systems in this respect. Moreover, that lagged values of dependent variables are also included in VAR models makes strong predictions for the future possible. (Kumar, Leona, Gasking, 1995: 365). As a result of estimating VAR model, instead of interpreting the parameters obtained, comments can be made for the future by passing the analysis of residues obtained from the estimated result of the system. The effects of shocks that these are likely to ocur in error terms of the variables in the models are measured with Impulse-Response functionsas shown in 115 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Enders(1995: 305-311), the Variance Decomposition which is determined with the model prediction and measures the prediction error variance another technique is used in the analysis of residuals. It is mention that with technical assistance mentioned, the effects of statistical shocks on the variables will be observed. 5.3.Unit Root Test Static variables are checked in the methods used in time series analysis. A time series is stationary if its average and variance does not change over time and the covariance in a period is dependent on only the distance between two periods not the period the covariance is calculated (Gujarati, 1999: 713). Dickey and the problem of the estimated regression models are faced with a fake because of the (Granger and Newbold, 1974), the obtained results do not reflect the true relationship. In such a case, T and F statistics are lost. Therefore, meaningful and non-stationary time series regression analysis reflect real relationships, but this is a cointegration relationship between the time series is made possible by the presence of (Gujarati, 1999: 725-726). This level of stability study, the variables before Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979) test was analyzed to compare the results of this test is then Phillips-Perron (1988) test was used. Variable CAD NX FID TE TP Table 1. ADF Unit Root Test ADF Test Level Value 1.Difference 2.Differece -2.758[0] -2.022[12]* -9.457[11]** -1.695[1] -14.142[0]* ---1.414 [6] -5.436 [5]* ---0.003[12] -4.90711]* ---7.736[0] ----- Critical Value (%1) -3.493 -3.489 -3.489 -3.492 -3.486 Note: ADF with Schwarz criterion were tested. Level for all variables in the test format and the intercept was used as the level value. The first difference variables (*) and the second difference (**) and the level values were used. The values in square brackets, variables, states that the length of SIC determined by the appropriate delay. NX CAD and the second by taking the difference of the variables, and TE FID has become stationary by taking first difference. TP was the model-level value. The level of each variable included in the model are stationary. VAR will be estimated prior to model, appropriate for the model determined the length of the delay. To do this, the following tests were used: Table 2. Corelation LM Test 116 Lags LM-Stat Prob 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 35.40355 33.27135 30.48034 47.77828 31.62167 23.02558 30.94912 17.11513 0.0812 0.1244 0.2068 0.0640 0.1693 0.5761 0.1907 0.8776 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 9 10 11 12 22.40669 16.95346 27.58093 20.79169 0.6122 0.8835 0.3275 0.7042 Table 3. VAR Lag Selection Criteria Endogenous Variables Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 -8784.908 -8676.626 -8604.155 -8563.791 -8542.246 -8483.881 -8418.272 -8390.276 -8348.860 -8315.491 NA 204.6417 130.3155 68.87893 34.78816 88.88556 93.89887 37.49885 51.67573 38.57332* 7.62e+63 1.65e+63 6.94e+62 5.27e+62 5.70e+62 3.16e+62 1.55e+62 1.54e+62 1.22e+62 1.14e+62* 161.2827 159.7546 158.8836 158.6017 158.6651 158.0529 157.3077 157.2528 156.9516 156.7980* 161.4062 160.4954 160.2416* 160.5770 161.2576 161.2627 161.1349 161.6972 162.0133 162.4770 161.3328 160.0550 159.4343 159.4027 159.7164 159.3546 158.8598* 159.0552 159.0043 159.1010 * indicates lag order selected by the criterion LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Final prediction error AIC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion Table 3 is examined, LR, FPE and AIC values are in the same direction, and 9 is the minimum value for the delay. Both aim to determine the level of consistent delay, and, due to lack of a very long time period covered nine-term delay, the delay level is determined as appropriate for the model. 5.4.Variances Decomposition To investigate the presence of structural breaks related to the variables, using the squares of residuals, and thus return the system investigating the CUSUM structural break related to the variables (Brown, Durbin and Evans, 1975:149-155) chart was used. Figure 2. CUSUM of variables 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 117 -40 03 04 05 06 CUSUM 07 08 09 10 5% Significance 11 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Equalities, we can say that the structural break related to other variables. Due to a fracture model variables were observed in the break out will be estimated using an artificial variable to express any. Table 4. Variance Decomposition Results Period S.E. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 84300967 1.49E+08 1.61E+08 1.63E+08 1.71E+08 1.71E+08 1.78E+08 1.94E+08 2.02E+08 2.04E+08 Period S.E. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 726.8696 822.0173 835.0815 875.3560 889.0531 904.9741 971.0690 1001.682 1016.415 1029.796 Period S.E. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 6409819. 8578346. 8867969. 8929659. 9101219. 9537165. 10506134 11332499 11463066 11850968 Period 118 S.E. Variance Decomposition of DDCAD: DDCAD DNX DFID 100.0000 95.09178 90.33680 87.25829 81.11985 80.28052 77.81817 72.94288 69.33291 68.12074 0.000000 2.023950 2.747490 5.747876 7.289460 7.239189 6.709760 6.458122 6.572370 6.577430 0.000000 1.984184 4.052956 4.171563 3.938387 3.901067 5.361156 6.146644 7.840872 8.276226 Variance Decomposition of DNX: DDCAD DNX DFID 62.11543 60.45094 59.89074 61.66188 59.94052 58.08003 53.04461 52.55017 51.33369 50.83004 37.88457 31.35544 31.07529 28.68063 28.02536 28.67585 33.22206 31.41238 30.52297 29.86570 0.000000 0.956160 0.938940 1.468556 1.528729 3.093604 2.904349 3.676091 4.409506 4.308151 Variance Decomposition of DFID: DDCAD DNX DFID 0.960621 1.703198 1.816690 1.843917 1.913250 5.070666 4.620808 4.982647 5.196262 5.048882 3.561922 7.614193 9.815775 10.02791 10.74781 10.02298 8.634321 7.593771 9.053756 11.80834 95.47746 87.11718 82.08521 80.96368 78.29582 72.88628 76.81778 76.05110 74.52841 71.04702 Variance Decomposition of DTE: DDCAD DNX DFID DTE TP 0.000000 0.591259 2.412449 2.333944 7.201878 8.099975 7.610183 10.21749 12.30576 12.54971 0.000000 0.308826 0.450309 0.488322 0.450421 0.479254 2.500734 4.234860 3.948098 4.475894 DTE TP 0.000000 7.233698 7.125766 7.026169 9.333278 9.012475 8.086086 9.583833 9.308097 9.425688 0.000000 0.003761 0.969261 1.162764 1.172110 1.138039 2.742890 2.777520 4.425732 5.570417 DTE TP 0.000000 0.278227 2.768816 2.734430 4.769543 7.228628 5.978435 7.402783 7.297956 7.549994 0.000000 3.287206 3.513511 4.430063 4.273574 4.791440 3.948656 3.969697 3.923618 4.545765 DTE TP �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3664782. 4203964. 4559527. 4967974. 5040278. 5131554. 5398903. 5870845. 6065571. 6194207. 4.144082 9.252956 8.289357 7.025928 7.202990 8.425076 11.91116 11.86556 12.60093 14.69380 0.903425 0.705626 6.540827 9.021794 9.302489 9.819431 12.21158 17.82288 21.15931 20.81232 0.009031 3.328949 3.097522 5.351039 5.226973 6.159875 6.516126 10.86181 10.38818 10.05785 94.94346 86.21273 78.29637 69.75619 68.86394 66.43832 60.95210 52.02978 48.82419 47.10559 0.000000 0.499736 3.775922 8.845054 9.403608 9.157296 8.409036 7.419963 7.027386 7.330433 Variance Decomposition of TP: Period S.E. DDCAD DNX DFID DTE TP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5585095. 5933919. 6556542. 6756191. 7099558. 7377532. 7431274. 7561157. 7734123. 8063976. 10.32720 10.60821 9.127853 10.77251 13.86680 13.17017 14.08089 14.27852 13.79738 20.45568 0.065194 0.778084 1.108046 1.114342 1.179061 2.558330 2.533998 3.692998 3.539359 3.295772 1.202163 1.230677 6.006631 5.727087 7.423425 6.979129 6.881688 6.671441 10.22790 9.469962 0.198028 1.858145 8.924092 11.34185 10.38171 13.20643 13.29330 13.02000 12.45194 11.50355 88.20741 85.52488 74.83338 71.04422 67.14900 64.08594 63.21013 62.33704 59.98342 55.27503 Cholesky Ordering: DDCAD DNX DFID DTE TP Accordingly, the current account deficit is largely determined by its own shocks. Net exports are determined by its own shocks in the short term, and by tourism expenditure and external debt with interest in the long term. It looks that net exports are determined by current account deficit and tourism expenditures as well as its own shocks in the long run. Foreign debt interest rate results from supply shocks and net exports in the long term. Tourism expenditures are affected by net exports and current account deficit in the long term. Supply shocks of transfer payments result from itself in the short term and from tourism expenditures and foreign debt interest rate in the long term. That is, a negative increase in exports affects macroeconomic variables by triggering current account deficit. It is a challenge to take current account deficit that follows an unstable trend to a stable line. In other words, unless a regulation is made in order to break the trend of unrest result in the coninuation of current account deficit. This situation is among basic findings of the survey. One of the most significant consequences of variance decomposition is that current account deficit is determined again by itself. The results obtained are supported by the outcomes of impulse-response analysis. 119 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 5.5.Impulse Response Function Analysis of basic situation arising as a result, net exports as the determinants of current account deficit, external debt interest, transfer payments and indirect effects of tourism expenditures affect the current account deficit. Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations Response of DDCAD to DDCAD Response of DDCAD to DNX Response of DDCAD to DFID Response of DDCAD to DT E Response of DDCAD to T P 1.20E+08 1.20E+08 1.20E+08 1.20E+08 1.20E+08 8.00E+07 8.00E+07 8.00E+07 8.00E+07 8.00E+07 4.00E+07 4.00E+07 4.00E+07 4.00E+07 4.00E+07 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 0.00E+00 -4.00E+07 -4.00E+07 -4.00E+07 -4.00E+07 -4.00E+07 -8.00E+07 -8.00E+07 -1.20E+08 -8.00E+07 -1.20E+08 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -8.00E+07 -1.20E+08 1 2 Response of DNX to DDCAD 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -8.00E+07 -1.20E+08 1 2 Response of DNX to DNX 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -1.20E+08 1 2 Response of DNX to DFID 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 Response of DNX to DT E 600 600 600 600 500 500 500 500 500 400 400 400 400 400 300 300 300 300 300 200 200 200 200 200 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -200 -200 -200 -200 -200 -300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -300 1 2 Response of DFID to DDCAD 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 Response of DFID to DNX 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 Response of DFID to DFID 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 8000000 8000000 8000000 6000000 6000000 6000000 6000000 4000000 4000000 4000000 4000000 4000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 0 0 0 0 0 -2000000 -2000000 -2000000 -2000000 -2000000 -4000000 -4000000 -6000000 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -4000000 -6000000 1 2 Response of DT E to DDCAD 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 Response of DT E to DNX 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 Response of DT E to DFID 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 4000000 4000000 4000000 3000000 3000000 3000000 3000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 1000000 1000000 1000000 1000000 1000000 0 0 0 0 0 -1000000 -1000000 -1000000 -1000000 -1000000 -2000000 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -2000000 1 2 Response of T P to DDCAD 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -2000000 1 2 Response of T P to DNX 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 Response of T P to DFID 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 6000000 6000000 6000000 6000000 5000000 5000000 5000000 5000000 4000000 4000000 4000000 4000000 3000000 3000000 3000000 3000000 3000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 2000000 1000000 1000000 1000000 1000000 0 0 0 0 0 -1000000 -1000000 -1000000 -1000000 -1000000 -2000000 -2000000 -2000000 -2000000 -2000000 -3000000 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -3000000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 9 10 1000000 -3000000 1 3 Response of T P to T P 4000000 2 2 Response of T P to DT E 5000000 1 10 -2000000 1 6000000 -3000000 9 Response of DT E to T P 4000000 2 2 Response of DT E to DT E 3000000 1 8 -6000000 1 4000000 -2000000 7 -4000000 -6000000 1 6 Response of DFID to T P 8000000 1 2 Response of DFID to DT E 6000000 -6000000 5 -300 1 8000000 -4000000 4 100 -300 1 3 Response of DNX to T P 600 -300 2 -3000000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Figure 3. Impuse-Response 6.Conclusion In this survey, which was conducted on the determinants of current account deficit, current account deficit, export, foreign debt interest rate, transfer payments and tourism expenditure were studied. The variables mentioned were subjected to VAR analysis for 2002:M12011:M12 period as a result of stationarity research as long as they are stationary. First, of the variables CAD and NX, the second difference taken, FID and TE the first difference taken, were made stationary. TP was involved in the model with its surface value. Each variable was involved in the model so long as they are stationary. The model’s time-lag length was determined as 9. According to variance discrimination results obtained from VAR model composed under this roof, current account deficit is determined by its own shocks in the short term. In addition, current account deficit prediction error variance is determined by tourism expenditures and foreign debt interest rate as well as its own variables. Current account deficit is affected by export, foreign debt interest rate, transfer payments and shock given to tourism expenditures. 120 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo It was observed that current account deficit is a potential problem in Turkey. It is thought that it can stimulate crisis unless kept under control. However, the precautions taken by the Central Bank of Turkish Republic recently are of great importance in terms of hindering current account deficit. Therefore, not only total demand will be intimidated but also national amount of savings will be raised. In this respect, increasing tourism revenues, keeping short term capital movements under control measures to decrease imports and increase exports could be taken into account. REFERENCE ARISTOVNIK, A. (2006), “Current Account Deficit Sustainability in Selected Transition Economies”. Zb. Rad. Ekon. Fak. Rij. Vol.24 sv.1.81-102 BROWN, R.L., DURBİN, J. and EVANS, J.M. (19759: “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationhips Over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B, 37, Issue 2. CHEN, S.W. (2011), “Are Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable in the G-7 Countries?” Japan and the World Economy 23, 190-201. CHINN, M. and PRASAD, E.S. (2000), “Medium-Term Determinants of Current Account in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Emrical Exploration”, NBER Working Paper, 7581. EDWARDS, S. (2001), “Does the Current Account Matter?”, NBER, WP, No:8275:1-71. EDWARTS, S. (2005), “Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And if not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely to be?” Naber Working Paper Series 11541 ENDERS, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series: Wiley Series in Probability and Mathemathical Statistics, New York, John Wiley Inc. ERDİL ŞAHİN, B. (2011), “Türkiye’nin Cari Açık Sorunu”. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, cilt.3, no.2, ISSN:1309-8020 FOUNTAS, S. and WU, J.L. (1999), “Are the U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?”, International Economic Journal, 13(3). GRANGER, C.W.J., NEWBOLD, P. (1974). “Spurious regressions in econometrics”. Journal of Econometrics, 2 (2), pp. 111-120. GUJARATI, D. N. (1999). Basic Econometrics, McGraw Hill, Literatür Yayıncılık, 3 rd edition, İstanbul. HUSTED S. (1992), “The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis,” The Review Of Economics & Statics, February, pp: 159-166. KEATING, J.W. (1990), “Identifying VAR Models Under Rational Expectations”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 25. KIM, B.H.,MIN, H.G.,HWANG, Y.S. and MCDONALD, J.A. (2009), “Are Asian countries’ current accounts sustainable? Deficits, Even When Associated With High Investment, Are Not Costless”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31: 163–179. 121 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo KHAN, M.S. and KNIGHT, M.D. (1983), “Determinants of Current Account Balances of Non-Oil Developing Countries in the 1970s An Empirical Analysis”. International Monetary Fund, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 819-842. KUMAR, V., LEONA, R.P. and GASKING, J.N. (1995), “Aggregate and Disaggregate Sector Forecasting Using Consumer Confidence Measures”, International Journal of Forecasting. MILESI-FERRETTI, G. M. and RAZIN, A. (1996), “Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits”, NBER, WP, 5467. PEKER, O. (2009), “Türkiye’de Cari Açık Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Analiz”. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 17, 1, 164-174 PEKER, O. and HOTUNLUOĞLU, H (22009), “Türkiye´de Cari Açığın Nedenlerinin Ekonometrik Analizi”. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 23, 3, 221-237 PHILLIPS, P.C.B. and PERRON, P. (1988) "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression", Biometrika, 75,335–346. OKTAR, S. and DALYANCI, L. (2011), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Para Politikasının Cari İşlemler Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi”. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi cilt.3, sayı.1 ss.1-22 ÖZMEN, E. (2005), “Macroeconomic and institutional determinants of current account deficits”, Applied Economics Letters, 12, 557-560. TELATAR, E. (2011), “Türkiye’de Cari Açık Belirleyicileri ve Cari Açık-Krediler İlişkisi”, Bankacılar Dergisi, Sayı 78. UYGUR, E. (2004), “Cari Açık Tartışmaları”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 19(222): 5-20. YAMAK, R. and KORKMAZ, A. (2007), “Türk Cari İşlemler Açığı Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 60. Earning Isparta Carpet Business To The Local Economy Again And Ensuring Its Sustainibility By Revising It Nesrin Şalvarci Türeli, Erhan Türeli Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey E-mails: nesrintureli@sdu.edu.tr, erhantureli@sdu.edu.tr Abstract Hand-woven carpet, one of the symbols of Isparta has lost its popularity in the sense of business, employment, socio-cultural and economic aspects. In 1960s the carpet industry which provided a great amount of income especially in local areas, and then in the overall city 122 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1318 Title A name given to the resource Determinants Of Turkey Current Account Deficit: An Econometric Analysis Author Author M. Metin Dam, Metin Dam Abstract A summary of the resource. The main causes of the current account deficit in Turkey; the foreign trade deficit, the high ratio of intermediate goods imports, high oil prices and Turkey's energy import dependence, lack of domestic savings, foreign direct investment and low tourism revenues. In this study, the causes of the current account deficit and current account deficit financing structure were examined. In addition, the determinanats of Turkey current account deficit wereanalyzed via VAR methods using the data of 2002-2011 monthly current account deficit, net export, interest on external debt, transfer payments and costs of tourism. As a result of the study, According to variance discrimination results obtained from VAR model composed under this roof, current account deficit is determined by its own shocks in the short term. In addition, current account deficit prediction error variance is determined by tourism expenditures and foreign debt interest rate as well as its own variables. Current account deficit is affected by export, foreign debt interest rate, transfer payments and shock given to tourism expenditures. Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Determinants, VAR, Turkey Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance