133 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/83122bb31c46b55d6c83ebb233f0f1b7.pdf 85596c32430d68bf29436edf2520fe82 PDF Text Text Hydrogen Production via Natural Gas Reforming Process – A Life Cycle Assessment Approach Murat Öztürk, Nuri Özek Department of Physics, Faculty of Art and Sciences, Suleyman Demirel Univesity, 32260Isparta/ Turkey E-mails: muratozturk@sdu.edu.tr, nuriozek@sdu.edu.tr Abstract The use of hydrogen as a sustainable alternative fuel and energy carrier is gaining more acceptance as the environmental impact of hydrocarbons becomes more significant. Hydrogen can be produced from various energy sources, such as steam reforming of natural gas, coal gasification, water electrolysis and thermo-chemical water splitting. Hydrogen production is accomplished by steam reforming of natural gas and other fossil primary energy at approximately 97% of total and less than 3% is based on renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, etc. Today, steam reforming of natural gas is the most important and economic ways of the hydrogen production. The environmental performance of products or processes has become a key issue, which is why ways to minimize the effects on the environment are investigated. One of the effective ways for this purpose is life cycle assessment (LCA). In this paper, LCA of hydrogen production by natural gas reforming (NGR) process are investigated for environmental affect. The investigation uses LCA, which is an analytical tool to identify and quantify environmentally critical phases during the life cycle of a system or a product and/or to evaluate and decrease the overall environmental impact of the system or product. Keywords: Environmental effects, hydrogen production, LCA, natural gas reforming 252 �1. INTRODUCTION The energy carrier hydrogen can help solve some energy challenges. Since, its oxidation does not emit greenhouse gases; its use does not contribute climate change, provided it is derived from clean energy sources. Moreover, conversion to electricity via fuel cells is efficient and environmental benign (Solli 2004). There are several ways to produce hydrogen including steam reforming of natural gas, coal gasification, water electrolysis and thermo-chemical cycles. The most commonly used method for hydrogen production is natural gas reforming (Dufour et. al 2009). Natural gas is one of the most important energetic resources. Its importance is growing in the economic world. The methane reforming process is therefore widely studied because of its importance in the petrochemical industry (Gresser and et. al 1998). In addition, due to the increase in hydrogen demand and the importance of synthesis gas as a major feedstock for carbon chemistry and fuel cells, methane reforming reactions have become more important. Notably, the one site hydrogen production has received considerable attention (Armor and et. al 1999; Roch and et. al 2003; Matsumura and et. al 2004; Kusakabe and et. al 2004). The steam reforming of methane (SRM) is currently the most cost-effective and highly developed method for production of hydrogen at relatively low cost and high hydrogen to carbon ratios are desired for hydrogen production (Sharma and et. al 2007; Profeti and et. al 2008; Xu and et. al 2008; Maluf and et. al 2009). However carbon formation is always the main drawback of the reaction. Some recent works pointed out the basicity role of the support and of the reduction conditions in the carbon formation. In fact, two other factors seem to be important to decrease the carbon deposition: size of metal particles and interactions between the metal particles and the support. In order to evaluate potential options for the future energy strategy it is of interest to evaluate hydrogen energy system. It has become of great interest to evaluate power system using different criteria. In this respect there are a number of methods, which are used with respective procedure in presenting quantitative merits for the rating of different power system designs (Afgan and Carvalho 2000). Among popular methods applied in the evaluation of power system are: thermodynamic method, energy cost evaluation method and LCA method. Each of the methods is based on the optimization function reflecting a single indicator in evaluation of individual options of power plant design. It has been noted that the energy system complexity requires multivariable assessment taking into a consideration different aspect of power system. It is obvious that beside the economic valorization of the power system the modern approach has to take into a consideration other aspect of the individual design of power system. Since energy production in the power system is based on different physical principles each power system option will reflect the importance of different optimization parameter. Also, each power system option will use different energy source, which conversion in the finale energy will impose different interaction with its environment (Afgan and et. al 2000). In this paper LCA is used to compute life cycle emissions and material use of hydrogen production via natural gas reforming process (without CO2 capture), and the results are compared using process criteria and value scaling for a similar plant. �2. Analysis of Life Cycle Assessment The concept of a LCA simply means that the inputs to the cycle (energy, materials, etc.) and outputs (energy waste materials, products, etc.) are evaluated for each step of a product or process life (Ciambrone 1997). LCA analysis can have a positive impact on human health, the ecosystem and natural resources. Specially, LCA is a systematic technique that uses four steps to assess the potential impacts associated with a product, process or service: i-) Goal definition and scoping, ii-) life cycle inventory, iii-) life cycle impact assessment, iv-) life cycle interpretation. It establishes the context in which the assessment is to be made and identifies the boundaries and environmental effects to be reviewed for the assessment. Inventory Analysis identifies and quantifies energy, water and materials usage and environmental releases (e.g., air emissions, solid waste disposal, and wastewater discharge). Impact Assessment assesses the human and ecological effects of energy, water, and material usage and the environmental releases identified in the inventory analysis. Interpretation evaluates the results of the inventory analysis and impact assessment to select the preferred product, process or service with a clear understanding of the uncertainty and the assumptions used to generate the results. 3. Natural Gas Reforming Process A simplified basic diagram of a conventional steam reforming process of natural gas is shown in Figure 1. The process basically consists of three main steps: I-) Synthesis gas generation, II-) water-gas shift reaction, and III-) gas purification. Natural gas feedstock is mixed with process steam and reacted over a nickel based catalyst contained inside a system of alloyed steel tubes (Steinberg and Cheng 1988). To protect the catalyst, natural gas has to be desulphurized before being fed to the reformer. The following reactions take place in the reformer (Veziroglu and Barbir 1998). ( ) (H=+206.16 kJ/molCH4) (1) (H=-41.15 kJ/molCO) (2) The reforming reaction is strongly endothermic and energy is supplied by combustion of natural gas. The metallurgy of the tubes usually limits the reaction temperature to 700-925°C. The synthesis gas leaving a catalytic reformer is typically a mixture of H2, CO, CO2 and CH4. After the reformer the gas mixture passes through gas purification units to remove CO2, the remaining CO and other impurities in order to deliver purified hydrogen. Several commercial processes can be used for removing CO2 (and CO), such as wet scrubbing, pressure swing adsorption, and recently membrane processes. 254 �Shift conversion Heat recovery CH4 Gas purification H2 Desulfurization CO2 Reformer Sulfur Fuel Figure 1. Block diagram of hydrogen production via NGR process 4. Environmental Assessment of Hydrogen Production via NGR Process LCA analysis is carried out by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for renewable-based (wind electrolysis) and fossil-based (NGR process) system in order to compare the two different types of systems currently seen as feasible near-term hydrogen generation options (Spath and Mann 2001). The natural gas system considered in NREL study was assumed to be sized as 1:5 millionNm3/day. This reflects the typical size of the current systems found in oil refineries. In this study, unlike the literature (Spath and Mann 2001), impact values of material use and environment are scaled and also it is determined that which impact values should be improved. 4.1. Material Use and Environmental Impacts Regional Air Impacts; The main air pollutions and the quantities emitted to the air during the life cycle of NGR process are given in Table 1. Most of the air emissions in the hydrogen production process originate from the natural gas production and distribution process steps. NGR process plant itself produces a small amount of the listed air emissions during its operation. The regional air emissions from the life-cycle of the process result in a total of 47.7 g/kgH2 of air emissions. Table 1. Air emission of NGR process 255 Pollutant Emission (g/kgH2) Pollutant Emission (g/kgH2) Benzene (C6H6) 1.4 Non-methane hydrocarbons 16.8 �Carbon monoxide (CO) 5.7 Particulates matter 2.0 Nitrogen oxide (N2O) Sulfur oxide (S2O) 9.5 Total emission 12.3 47.7 Global Warming; The greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are considered as contributing factors for the global warming potential (GWP) of the system, which is expressed as the amount equivalent to CO2 emissions. GWP of CH4 and N2O are 21 and 310 times that of CO2, respectively. Therefore, the GWP of the NGR process is found to be 11,888 gCO2-equivalent/kgH2, with contributions of 89.3%, 10.6% and 0.1% from CO2, CH4 and N2O, respectively. The distributions of the greenhouse gas emissions are as follows: 25% from natural gas production and distribution, 2.3% from electricity generation, 0.4% from construction and decommissioning, 78.4% from hydrogen plant operation and -2:5% (credit) from avoided operations. Water Impacts; The total amount of water emission from NGR process plant is 0.2 g/kgH2, with the primary pollutant being oils (60%) followed by dissolved matter (29%). The water pollutants come primarily from the material manufacturing steps required for pipeline and plant construction. Solid Wastes; The total amount of solid waste generated by the NGR process is 202 g/kgH2, a majority of which comes from the natural gas production and distribution steps. The compressor stations and the natural gas reforming plant have electricity requirements that are significant (80% of solid waste generation is due to these power requirements). The electricity required to operate the pumps and compressors in the system are provided from the national grid. Land Use; The engineering, procurement and construction company (CB&I), involved in projects for natural resource industries such as oil and gas, is annoyed about the land use of natural gas reforming facility. An approximation of 37.5x45 m (0.17 ha) of land area for a 0.5 milNm3/day facility is given. This land area is scaled to a 1.5 milNm3/day facility size (to mach the assumed facility size given in the literature (Spath and Mann 2001)), giving a land area of 0.5 ha/MW. Water Use; A total amount of 19.8 L/kgH2 of water is used in the NGR process. The majority of the water is consumed at the hydrogen plant. The smaller percentage (24.0%) is the amount that is consumed during the conversion of natural gas to hydrogen while the higher percentage (71.2%) is a result of the excess steam production. Energy Use; The total energy consumption (on LHV basis) of NGR process is 183.2 MJ/kgH2, which is mainly from the natural gas extraction and transport steps of the process. Materials Use; The non-feedstock resources (fossil fuels, minerals and metals) utilized within the boundaries for NGR process are given in Table 2. The most resource used is natural gas. Iron and limestone are made use of in the construction of the pipeline that transports the natural gas to the NGR plant, as well as the constriction of the NGR plant itself most of the oil is consumed while producing and distributing the natural gas and coal is the main sources of 256 �electricity (which is used by the plant). A total amount of 3855 g/kgH2 of materials is used by the system. Table 2. Resources consumption of NGR plant Resources Consumption (g/kgH2) Resources Consumption (g/kgH2) Coal 159.2 Limestone 16.0 Iron (ore) 10.3 Natural gas 3642.3 Iron (scrap) 11.1 Oil 16.4 Total Consumption 3855 4.2. Life Cycle Assessment of the Processes The information gained on the performance of NGR process on all of the criteria is initially entered in Table 3. The best and worst cases is the noted (based on the maximization or minimization of the criterion from literature), and the range between the best and worst case is indicated as seen in Table 4. Table 3. Environmental impact, resource use and cost data for NGR process Impacts Value Unit Impacts Value Unit Regional Air Impacts (RAI) 47.7 g/kgH2 Water (W) 19.8 L/kgH2 Global Warming (GW) 11888 gCO2/kgH2 Energy (E) 183.3 MJ/kgH2 Water Impacts (WI) 0.2 g/kgH2 Materials (M) 3855 g/kgH2 Solid Wastes (SW) 202 g/kgH2 Cost (C) 1.38 $/kgH2 Land (L) 0.5 ha/MW Cost (C) 5.60 $/GJ The data is then scaled according to these ranges, to result in values ranging from zero (the worst) to one (the best). This calculation is done by using the following formulation. 257 �( )⁄( ) (3) where, X is scaled data, Xw and Xb is the worst and best value assumed for data, respectively. Table 4. Example data on the performance of the NGR process on the criteria and value scaling Criteria (Raw Data) RAI GW WI SW L W E M C 47.7 11888 0.2 202 0.5 19.8 183.3 3855 1.38 Best Best Best Best Best Best Best Best Best 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Worst Worst Worst Worst Worst Worst Worst Worst Worst 80.0 30000 10.0 3000 3 130 500 30000 8.0 Criteria (Scaled Data) RAI GW WI SW L W E M C 0.40 0.60 0.98 0.93 0.85 0.84 0.63 0.87 0.82 Table 4 demonstrates a portion of the raw data, best/worst cases, ranges and value scaled data to illustrate the explanations above. 5. CONCLUSION Environmental effects normally are not revealed in market prices. By assigning monetary values to these effects, they will be enabled to have a place in the market, thus providing grounds for more effective decision-making. Since the market is deficient in representing the external costs resulting from the environmental impacts, there is no incentive to incorporate this cost in the decision-making process. However, if the market takes the externalities into account, then a final decision will also have to include both the private and external costs, thus providing a fairer system. In this study, LCA of hydrogen production via natural gas 258 �reforming is presented. Obtained impact values of material use and environment are scaled from 0 (worst) to 1 (best). Accordingly, water impacts (WI) and solid wastes (SW) impacts values of this process are good. In addition, land (L), water (W), materials (M) and cost (C) values are average, meaning neither good nor bad. However, it is emphasized that values of regional air impacts (RAI), global warming (GW) and energy (E) should be improved in terms of environment. REFERENCES Afgan, N.H. and Carvalho, M.G. (2000) Sustainability Assessment Method for Energy Systems, Kluwer Academic Publisher , Boston. Afgan, N.H., Carvalho, M.G. and Hovanov, N.V. (2000) Energy System Assessment with sustainability Indicators, Energy Policy, 28, 603-612. Armor, J.N. (1999) The multiple roles for catalysis in the production of H2. Applied Catalysis A General, 176, 159-176. Ciambrone, D.F (1997) Environmental Life Cycle Analysis. Lewis Publishers. Dufour, J., Serrano, D.P., Galvez, J.L., Moreno, J. and Garcia C. (2009) Life cycle assessment of processes for hydrogen production: Environmental feasibility and reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 34, 1370-1376. Kusakabe, K., Sotawa, K.I., and Iwamoto, T. (2004) Methane steam reforming over Ce-ZrO2supported noble metal catalysts at low temperature. Fuel Process Technology, 86, 319-326. Maluf, S.S. and Assaf, E.M. (2009) Ni catalysts with Mo promoter for methane steam reforming. Fuel, 88, 1547-1553. Matsumura, Y. and Nakamor, T. (2004) Steam reforming of methane over nickel catalysts at low reaction temperature. Applied Catalysis A General, 258, 107-114. Profeti, L.P.R., Ticianelli, E.A. and Assaf, E.M. (2008) Co/Al2O3 catalysts promoted with noble metals for production of hydrogen by methane steam reforming. Fuel, 87, 2076-2081. Roch, H.S., Jun, K.W. and Park, S.E. (2003) Methane-reforming reactions over Ni/CeZrO2/q-Al2O3 catalysts. Applied Catalysis A General, 251, 275-283. Sharma, P.O., Abraham, M.A. and Chattopadhyay, S. (2007) Development of a novel metal monolith catalyst for natural gas steam reforming. Industrial and Engineering Chemical Research, 46, 9053-9060. Steinberg, M. and Cheng, H.C. (1988) Modern and prospective technologies for hydrogen production from fossil fuels. Hydrogen Energy Progress VII, 2, 699-740, Pergamon Press. Solli, C. (2004) Fission or fossil: A comparative life cycle assessment of two different hydrogen production methods, Master‘s thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway, Jun. Xu, J., Yeung, C.M.Y., Ni, J., Meunier, F., Acerbi, N. and Fowles, M. (2008) Methane steam reforming for hydrogen production using low water-ratios without carbon formation over ceria coated Ni catalysts. Applied Catalysis A General, 345, 119-127. 259 �Veziroglu, T.N. and Barbir, F. (1998) Hydrogen Energy Technologies, United Nations industrial development organization, Vienna. Seed Micromorphological Investigations On 7 New Taxa Of Crocus Chrysanthus (Herbert) Herbert From Turkey Feyza Candan Biology Dept, Botany Section, Faculty of Arts and Science, Celal Bayar University, Manisa, Turkey Abstract This Investigation is made to determine seed micromorphological properties of four subspecies and tree varieties of Crocus chrysanthus have been distinguished:Crocus chrysanthus (Herbert) Herbert subsp. chrysanthus with 3 varieties (var. chrysanthus, var. bicoloroceus F. Candan & N. Özhatay, and var. atrovioloceus F. Candan & N. Özhatay), Crocus chrysanthus (Herbert) Herbert subsp. punctatus F. Candan & N. Özhatay, Crocus chrysanthus (Herbert) Herbert subsp. kesercioglui F. Candan & N. Özhatay and Crocus chrysanthus (Herbert) Herbert subsp. sipyleus F. Candan & N. Özhatay. Scanning electron microscope was used to determine micromorphological features as regards mature seeds of all taxa. Keywords: Crocus chrysanthus (Herbert) Herbert, seed micromorphology. 1.INTRODUCTION Among the Angiosperm members, Iridaceae family is an invincible family with its attractive flowers. The taxa that belongs Iridaceae family are herbs with rhizomes, corms and bulbs (Mathew, 1984). Iridaceae family is resembled with 6 genus in Turkey. These are Iris L., Hermodactylus Miller, Gynandriris Parl., Crocus L., Romulea Maratti and Gladiolus L. (Mathew, 1984). Crocus species are perennial plants, adopted to overcome a dry dormant period in the form of an underground corm, in many ways resembling Colchicum L. (Mathew, 1982; Bowles 1924, 1952). The genus Crocus L. (Iridaceae) presently consists of 90 species, mainly in the Mediterranean Region and the drier floristic areas of the Irano-Turanien Region. The majority of species are restricted to Turkey and the Balkans. Turkey is an especially rich country in terms of Crocus species, with 31 species recorded in the Flora of Turkey (Mathew, 1984). The thirty-second species mentioned in Flora of Turkey is C. boissieri Maw. This plant collected in Turkey by Tchihotcheff in 1853 and then it has not been refound (Mathew, 2001). Since, the Flora of Turkey was written, five new taxa were described as C. biflorus Mill. subsp. albocoronatus 260 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1253 Title A name given to the resource Hydrogen Production via Natural Gas Reforming Process – A Life Cycle Assessment Approach Author Author Murat , Öztürk Abstract A summary of the resource. The use of hydrogen as a sustainable alternative fuel and energy carrier is gaining more acceptance as the environmental impact of hydrocarbons becomes more significant. Hydrogen can be produced from various energy sources, such as steam reforming of natural gas, coal gasification, water electrolysis and thermo-chemical water splitting. Hydrogen production is accomplished by steam reforming of natural gas and other fossil primary energy at approximately 97% of total and less than 3% is based on renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, etc. Today, steam reforming of natural gas is the most important and economic ways of the hydrogen production. The environmental performance of products or processes has become a key issue, which is why ways to minimize the effects on the environment are investigated. One of the effective ways for this purpose is life cycle assessment (LCA). In this paper, LCA of hydrogen production by natural gas reforming (NGR) process are investigated for environmental affect. The investigation uses LCA, which is an analytical tool to identify and quantify environmentally critical phases during the life cycle of a system or a product and/or to evaluate and decrease the overall environmental impact of the system or product. Keywords: Environmental effects, hydrogen production, LCA, natural gas reforming Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),Q Science (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b04599b9bb919439ecbd15e543f7d835.pdf 68feff30029593c5406bfa5770138db4 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo duties, to evaluate its effectiveness, discover weak points in its operation and propose measures to eliminate the appearance of weakness. In other words, the internal audit activity is organized by the management of the business entity or other business entities to assist in the evaluation of the operation as a whole or to individual segments. In terms of business and management functions in enterprises, internal audit can be monitored as part of steering control, where business functions are subject to examination in order to perform more efficiently, thus ensuring the functioning of an information subsystem which however, the guide provides information for making appropriate business decisions. According to the definition of the Committee of audit practice (Auditing Practice Committee-APC) Internal audit is an element of internal control sistem set by management of the business entity, banks or other institutions for examination, evaluation and reporting function of accounting and other controls in operation. Internal audit is introduced in order to improve the decisions of managers or to satisfy statutory requirements. Institute of Internal Audit in the UK, apart from this definition, the internal template defines as an independent activity in the corporate assessment of the operation, established as a service office of the corporation. It is a control function that works by evaluating the adequacy and effectiveness of other controls and supervision. From these definitions can freely conclude that the primary task of Internal Audit, through sight and evaluation to assess the activities of the business entity, to provide adequate assistance to owners and management of the business entity in order to more effectively engage them to perform undertaken professional activities. For this goal to be achieved, the internal audit of users of this type of service offers numerous analyzes, suggestions, recommendations, advice and information directly related to activities subject to internal audit. Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Muhittin Kaplan1, Hüseyin Kalyoncu, Hasan Göcen1 1Meliksah University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Kayseri, Turkey 2Meliksah University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of International Trade and Business, Kayseri, Turkey Email: mkaplan@meliksah.edu.tr, ,hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr,hgocen@meliksah.edu.tr Abstract The issue of whether public savings offset private savings, and visa vice, has important implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy. This study examines long-run relationship between public and private savings rates using annual Turkish data for the period 1975-2005. The result of Engle-Granger cointegration test has shown that there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings ratios. However,once endogenously determined structural break is allowed, the test results confirm the existence of the cointegration relationship between private and public savings. Econometric estimation of the offset coefficients using both FMOLS and DOLS yields values of between -0.11 and -0.82. The results also indicate that the potency of fiscal policy significantly reduced with the liberalization of financial markets. 230 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Keywords: Savings, Offset coefficient, Ricardian Equivalence, DOLS, FMOLS. JEL Classificiation: E6, H6, E21. 1. INTRODUCTION The relationship between private and public savings has been central issue in both the theoretical and the empirical literature. The importance of the subject stems from the fact that the effectiveness of fiscal policy is closely related to the responsiveness of private saving to changes in fiscal stance. The relationship between lower public deficits and national savings, however, remains controversial both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, while Keynes (1936) assumes no relationship between private and public savings, Friedman (1957) and Modigliani (1946) develop models showing full substitution between private and public savings.Barro (1974) also introduced the notion of perfect substitutability between private and public savings, which is called RicardianEquivalence Proposition (REP). Although there area number of opposing views in the theoretical literature, ultimately, it is an empirical issue to determine the extent to which private savings offset public savings. In the empirical literature, the relationship between private and public savings is investigated for different countries using different econometric methodologies. However, there is no consensus over the size offset coefficient (for a survey see Seater, 1993, Holmes 2006 and Ricciuti 2007). Studies on advanced economies have shown that about half of the change in public savings is offset by an opposite change in private saving (Masson et. al. (1998); Hemming et. al. (2002); Holmes (2006); Mandal and Payne (2007); Seater and Mariano (1985); Leiderman and Razin (1988); Makin and Narayan (2009); De Castro andFernandez (2009)). Although empirical studies are limited in number, offset coefficients were found to be higher for developing countries than for developed countries (Loayza et. al. (2000); Lopez et. al. (2000); De Mello et. al.(2004); Edwards (1996); Masson et. al. 1998; Bulir and Swiston (2009)). This study provides evidence on the validity of the REP by applying powerful econometric techniques of DOLS and FMOLS to time series data a developing country, Turkey. This paper is organized as follows. Section II sets out the econometric methodology and the data employed in this study. Section III presents the results. Section IV concludes. 2. Methodology and Data Empirical studies on testing the REP estimate the following model: (1) where refers to private sector savings as a proportion of GDP, is public sector savings as a ratio to GDP; is the long-run public-private offset (substitution) coefficient is the intercept term and represents usual error term. takes value between 0 (no offset) and 1 (full offset). If , then a decrease in public sector savings is fully offset by an increase in private sector savings. 231 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The data employed in our empirical analysis is an annual private and public sector as a percentage of GDP obtained from State Planning Organization (SPO) publications for the years 1975 and 2005. Before estimating the long-run offset function given in equation (1), we first need to investigate the time series properties of the private and public sector saving ratios. Results obtained from unit root tests which are performed to determine whether savings variables have a unit root are presented in Table 1a (ADF, DF-GSL, PP, KPSS and ERS unit root tests) and Table 1b (Ng-Perron). Examination of the Tables show that the null hypothesis of unit root could not be rejected for both private and public sector savings ratios. Table 1a. Unit Root Test Results PSR GSR Constant Constant and Trend Constant Constant and Trend ADF -1.432876 -1.133958 -1.473065 -2.322051 DF-GLS -1.367547 -1.595668 -1.384922 -1.798766 PP -1.454917 -1.253357 -1.479741 -1.480789 KPSS 0.538798 0.110454 9.029962 0.380299 ERS 8.002194 13.83224 8.084297 12.96383 Note: ADF, DF-GSL, PP, KPSS and ERS stand for Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979), Phillips Perron (1988), Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (1992), Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock point optimal (ERS, 1996) unit root tests. Table 1b. Ng-Perron Unit Root test Results MZa MZt MSB MPT PSR -3.24375 -1.25975 0.38836 7.53622 GSR -3.23349 -1.27022 0.39283 7.57531 Asymptotic critical values*: 1% -13.8000 -2.58000 0.17400 1.78000 5% -8.10000 -1.98000 0.23300 3.17000 10% -5.70000 -1.62000 0.27500 4.45000 Note: The number of lags used in Ng-Perron (2001) unit root test is determined by Schwarz Information Criteria (SIC) and turned out to be zero for all specifications. Having established that private and public savings ratios are I(1) variables, we need to test for cointegration between private and public savings to avoid spurious regression.To determine whether there is long-run relationship among these variables, the Engle-Granger (1987) methodology is employed. Testing for cointegration within this methodology involves 232 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo extracting the residuals from equation (1) and testing for unit root in residuals. The EngleGranger bivariate cointegration equation and the ADF tests applied to residuals are reported in Table 2. The optimal lag determined by using Schwarz and Akaike information criteria turned out to be zero. The cointegration test statistic is -2.086 with a probability value of 0.251 implying non-rejection of the null of unit root in residuals. Hence, there appears to there is no long-run relationship between private and public sectors savings ratios. Table 2. Engle- Granger Cointegration Test Dependent Variable PSR ADF test statistics (probability): Constant GSR 20.157 -1.009 (0.531)* (0.101)* -2.086 (0.251) Test Critical values: 1% level -3.671 5% level -2.964 10% level -2.621 Note: The values in parenthesis are standard errors. * indicate significant at 1% level. However, the residual based cointegration tests have a low power in the presence of a structural break (Gregory and Hansen, 1996). For this reason, we applied Gregory-Hansen cointegration procedure to test whether there is long-run relationship among private and public savings. Specifically, Gregory and Hansen (1996) provide the following three structural break alternatives given by equations (2a-2c): (2a) (2b) (2c) where D represents a dummy variable equal to 0 if is less than or equal to unknown timing of change , otherwise it is equal to one; is time trend; other variables are defined as before. The first cointegration regression (2a) is allowed to have a level break, the second model includes level shift and time trend and third model includes regime shift variable. Given that the structural break point is unknown, Gregory-Hansen procedure involves computing the cointegration test statistics for each possible break and taking the minimum 233 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo test statistics (ADF test) across all possible break points. That is, the break point is unknown and determined by finding the minimum value for the ADF statistic. The Akaike Information criterion (AIC) is used to determine the number of lags of the change in the residual used in computing the ADF statistic and turned out to be zero for all three models. The results of the Gregory-Hansen Cointegrationprocedure for all specifications indicate that the null of no cointegration is rejected with an endogenous break year of 1989. The ADF statistics for equations (2a-2c) are -5.082, -5.34836 and -5.15361 respectively and they are statistically significant at 5 percent level. 3. Empirical Results Having found evidence of cointegration and having established that private and public saving are I(1), the equations (2a-2c) are estimated using the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) proposed by Stock and Watson (1993) and the FMOLS proposed by Phillips and Hansen (1990). The results obtained from FMOLS and DOLS estimators are presented in Tables 3a-3c. Examination of the Tables indicates that while the FMOLS coefficients of offset (betas) ranges between -0.82 and -0.46, the DOLS coefficients of betas ranges from -0.74 to -0.11 yielding a partial offset.For models (2a) and (2b), coefficient on government savings is statistically significant at 1% level. However, the offset coefficient is insignificant in the model (2c). The long-run offset coefficient estimated by FMOLS (DOLS) is -0.458 (-0.11) but they are both statistically insignificant. However, there was statistically significant (at 5% level) change in the slope coefficient, , after 1989 for DOLS estimates. Thus allowing for the slope change in the regime shift specification in the DOLS case, the long-run coefficient is -0.72 ( . The structural break dummy, D, is significant across alternative estimates implying the presence of structural break in the data. Taken together, the results show that a structural break did occur in the long-run relationship between private and public saving in 1989. Table 3a. FMOLS and DOLS Estimates for Level Shift Model, 1975-2005 Constant GSR D FMOLS DOLS 16.129 15.734 (1.002)* (0.682)* -0.709 -0.741 (0.129)* (0.0967)* 5.112 5.377 (1.268)* (0.891)* Note: *, **, *** indicate significance at 1%, 5% and 10% level of significance respectively. The values in parenthesis are standard errors. 234 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 3b. FMOLS and DOLS Estimates for Level Shift with trend Model, 1975-2005 Constant GSR D TREND FMOLS DOLS 18.263 13.892 (1.310)* (1.393)* -0.819 -0.577 (0.124)* (0.148)* 7.320 4.693 (1.503)* (1.049)* -0.193 0.137 (0.084)** (0.088) Note: See the note in Table 3a. Table 3c. FMOLS and DOLS Estimated for Regime Shift Model, 1975-2005 Constant GSR D DGSR FMOLS DOLS 14.571 11.685 (2.977)* (2.263)* -0.458 -0.109 (0.462) (0.349) 6.627 9.355 (3.032)** (2.318)* -0.268 -0.613 (0.483) (0.322)** Note: See the note in Table 3a. 4. Concluding Comments This study examines the long-run relationship between private and public sector saving ratios using FMOLS and DOLS methodologies. Empirical findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First, there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings unless 235 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo endogenous structural break in the cointegration relationship is allowed in Turkish case. Secondly, the extent of offset coefficients ranges from -0.82 to -0.11 supporting weak form of Ricardian equivalence. Statistically significant change in the slope coefficient in DOLS case also shows that the substitution (offset) between private and public savings are stronger after 1989. This point is particularly worth mentioning because financial repression in Turkish economy was fully removed at this date. Thirdly, the results of the paper suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy implementations by the government has decreased significantly after achieving financial liberalization in 1989.The statistically significant and relatively large coefficient ( ) on regime shift variable can be taken as an evidence for this argument. REFERENCES Makin, A. J. and P. K.Narayan (2009), “How Potent is FiscalPolicy in Australia?”,Australian Conference of Economicsts, 1-24. Barro, R. (1974),“Are government bonds net wealth?”,Journal of Political Economy, 81, 1095-1117. Bulir, A. and A. Swiston (2009),“Emerging Market CountriesDon’tbelieve in fiscalstimuli: Should web lame Ricardo?”, Czech Journal of Economicsand Finance, 59: 153-164. De Castro, F. and J. L. Fernandez (2009), “Therelationshipbetweenpublicandprivatesaving in Spain: DoesRicardianEquivalenceHold”, Banco De EspanaWorkingPaper Seriesno: 0923. De Mello, L. And P. M. Kongsrud, and R. Price (2004), “Savingbehaviourandtheeffectiveness of fiscalpolicy”, EconomicsDepartmentWorkingPaper, no. 397. Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of theestimatorsforautoregressive time serieswith a unitroot”, Journal of theAmerican Statistical Association, 74:427-431. Edwards, S. (1996), “Why are Latin American’s savings so low? An international comparative analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 51:5-44. Elliot, G. and T. J. Rothenberg and J. H. Stock (1996), “Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root”, Econometrica, 64: 813-836. Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, estimating and testing”, Econometrica, 55: 251-276. Friedman, M. (1957), A Theory of the consumption function, Princeton University Press, New Jersey. Gregory, A. W. and B. E. Hansen (1996), “Residual based tests of cointegration in models with regime shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70: 99-126. Hemming, R. and M. Kell and S. Mahfouz (2002),“The effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating economic activity”, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/208, IMF. Holmes, M. J. (2006), “To what extent are public savings offset by private savings in the OECD”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 30:285-296. Keynes, J. M. (1936),“The general theory of employment, interest and money”, Macmillan, Houndsmills, UK. 236 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kwiatkowski, D. P. C. B. Phillips, P. SchmidtandY. Shin (1992), “Testingthenullhypothesis of stationaryagainstthealternative of a unitroot”, Journal of Econometrics, 54:159-178. Leiderman, L.,and A. Razin (1988), “TestingRicardianneutralitywith intertemporalstochastic model”, Journal of Money, CreditandBanking, 20:1-21. an Loayza, N. and K. Schmidt-Hebbel, and L. Serven (2000), “What drives private saving across the World?”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 82:165-181. Lopez, J. H. and K. Schmidt-Hebbel, and L. Serven (2000), “How effective is fiscal policy in raising National saving?”,Review of Economics and Statistics, 82:226-238. Mandal, A. and J. E. Payne (2007), “The long-run relationship between private and public savings: an empirical note”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 31: 99-103. Masson, P. and T. Bayoumi and H. Samici (1998),“International evidence on the determinants of private saving”, World Bank Economic Review, 12:483-501. Modigliani, F. (1946),“Life cycle, individual thrift and the wealth of nations”, American Economic Review, 76, 297-313. Ng, S. and P. Perron (2001), “Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power”, Econometrica, 69(9):1519-1554. Phillips, P. C. B. and E. E. Hansen (1990), “Statistical inference in instrumental variable regression with I(1) processes”, Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125. Phillips P. C. B. and P. Perron (1988), “Testing for a unit root in time series regression”, Biometrica, 75:335-346. Ricciutti, R. (2003),“Assessing Ricardian Equivalence”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 17:5578. Seater, J. (1993), “Ricardian Equivalence”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31, 142-90. Seater, J.,and R. S. Mariano (1985), “New tests of the cycleandtaxdiscountinghypotheses”, Journal of MonetaryEconomics, 15: 195-215. life Stock, J. H. and M. W. Watson (1993),“A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems”, Econometrica, 6: 783-820. 237 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1299 Title A name given to the resource Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Author Author Muhittin, Kaplan Abstract A summary of the resource. The issue of whether public savings offset private savings, and visa vice, has important implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy. This study examines long-run relationship between public and private savings rates using annual Turkish data for the period 1975-2005. The result of Engle-Granger cointegration test has shown that there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings ratios. However,once endogenously determined structural break is allowed, the test results confirm the existence of the cointegration relationship between private and public savings. Econometric estimation of the offset coefficients using both FMOLS and DOLS yields values of between -0.11 and -0.82. The results also indicate that the potency of fiscal policy significantly reduced with the liberalization of financial markets.Keywords: Savings, Offset coefficient, Ricardian Equivalence, DOLS, FMOLS. JEL Classificiation: E6, H6, E21 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f800ff28362a53927d8726ccd08d270c.pdf 3e906aa2fe0f0492a3db0c8dc92e344f PDF Text Text A Cross – Sectional Analysis of Environmetal Sustainability Practices Toksari Murat1, Uçan Okyay2 1Nigde University, Department of Business, 2Nigde University, Department of Economics E –mails: mtoksari@nigde.edu.tr, okyayu@hotmail.com Abstract In 1970s and 1980s the concept of sustainability developed as a process of protection for the elements that social, economic and eceological systems need. During the Environment and Development Summit held in 1992, decisions were made about the works to protect and improve the environmental sustainability with the help of objective policies. By revealing sustainability specifically focuses on the social, economic and ecological target, Brountland report states that meeting Socia-Economic needs is limited to the carrying capacity of ecosystem. Environmental sustainability is divided into three categories. They are resource management, energy management and product sustainability. While, solid waste and water conservation compose the resource managament, energy managament includes energy conservation, renewable energy, GHG emission reduction, energy sufficient. Finally, product sustainability involves product transportation, supply chain audit, product stewardship and Life Cycle Program. In this context, environmental sustainability index and environmental performance index were prepared by the universities of Yale and Colombia. With environmental sustainability index, it is intented to reach perfection in the current and future environmental qualities of the countries. This index, is a tool when aiming to be qualified and is an important mechanism for testing the environmental performance. As for environmental performance index, it has been developed by using result-oriented indicators. In this study, the countries whose performances enter the scope of the environmental performance index were compared, 149 countries in 2008 and 163 countries in 2010 were included in this index. Keywords: Sustainability, environmental performance index, environmental sustainability index, Turkey 454 �1.INTRODUCTION Dictionary meaning of the concept of sustainable is “today's needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs met unless otherwise indicated”. The concept of sustainability in the final report in 1987 by the United Nations Commission on Environment and Development is defined as follows: "Humanity, without compromising the ability to respond to the needs of future generations, by providing the daily needs, has the ability to make development sustainable”. The term “sustainability” was coined by the United Nations appointed Brundland Commission and later refined by the UN Commission on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro (Blackburn, 2007). The best – known definition of sustainability, as established by the UN Commission on Environment and Development, states that “development is sustainable where it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987). The concept of sustainability on different topics in the discipline of economic stability, debt sustainability in order to be able to express the ability of being able to continue, such as sustainable growth around the macro-economic definitions are used extensively. However, the concept of sustainability in all areas, especially in the field of economics Brundland by the World Commission on Environment and Development Report, has expanded the definition of sustainable development. Since the 1980s, the development of international environmental discussions of sustainable development, applied science, environmental and international policy areas examined as a multi-faceted concept that has become the focal point of development strategies (Carvalho, 2001: 62; Bakırtaş ve Bakırtaş, 2007: 223). Sustainable Development, briefly, to meet the demands and needs of future generations without restricting the ability and facilities, can be expressed as the present needs are met. This defines the extent of development mentioned above, under six headings summaries spreadable. These are can be expressed as the environment, the future, quality of life, justice, precautionary principles, and holistic thinking. In addition, there are 3 dimensions of the sustainability of the development which are indisputable and can not distinguish between each other (Arzu Özyol, http://hydra.com.tr/uploads/kutup9.pdf): Social Dimension: Continuing education for the public "quality of life will provide increasing benefits for themselves and the whole of the next generations, 455 �The Economic Dimension: Due to limited resources, these resources can improve people's quality of life and how the fairest way to determine what is the most effective way to distribute The Environmental Dimension: Recycled or not, the use of any determination as to ensure the continuity of natural resource In this context, one of the dimensions of the environmental dimension of sustainable development for environmental sustainability are discussed for the first time in the capital of Brazil, Rio De Janeiro on Environment and Development Summit held in 1992. In this summit, the objective of environmental sustainability is necessary for the protection and development policies, concluded that the aid. The most important work in this area of Environmental Sustainability Index (CSI) 's prepared. This index is prepared jointly by Yale University and Columbia University. Index has 21 indicators is entegrated to 76 data. This 21 quality indicators provide to compare five different subjects: the peripheral system, stress levels of this system, the human population sensitivity to environmental degradation, environmental stress and institutional capacity and global resposibility (Global Leaders, 2001:9). The paper organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the theoretical background. Section 3 summarizes the literature.The methodology is presented in Section 4. The overall conclusion and result are in the final section. 2. Theoretical Background Although sustainability is important for ensuring the future Quality of the global environment, it can also be viewed as a business opportunity, an investment in the future and a pathway to innovation and creative thinking (Satterfield et al. 2009; Hontou et al. 2006; Cowan et al. 2010). Today business, now more sensitivity towards environmental activities as a cost item or to see the threat of competition as an oppurtunity rather than one have to see (Lee et al., 2006: 292). For this reason, environmental innovation can be stated as environmental risk education or more generally as a contribution to sustainable development goals, new ideas, attitudias, development and implemntation of products and process (Rennizgs, 2000: 322). Environmental product innovation in the production and even the destruction of the product until they begin to become waste throughout the product life cycle to eliminate or reduce the negative effects on the environment includes the innovative activities (Büyükkeklik et al., 2010: 375). 456 �3. Literature Author Year Method Result Robert Goodland 1996 and Herman Daly Distinguishing development from sustainability and from growth, the paper describes the concept of natural capital and uses the concept to present four alternative definitions of environmental sustainability. The final section describes how one large development agency, the World Bank, is endeavoring to incorporate these new principle into its operaions. Gregory Theyel 2000 There are discernible differences in the enviromental innovation and performance of US chemical firms that can be explained by differences in the management practices and characteristics of the firms. Firms in the chemical industry and in other industries can learn from the leading firms in this research. Firms that do mak environmental management part of production management are likely to be leaders in innovation for pollution prevention and environmental performance. Smita B. 2003 Brunnermeier and Mark A. Cohen Panel data models to study how environmental sustainability by Us manufacturing ındustries responded to changes in pollution abadement expenditures and regulatory enforcement during the period 1983 through 1992. Environmental innovation responded to increases in pollution abatement expenditures. Also find some emprical evidence that environmental innovation is more likely to occur in industries that are internationally competitive. Sergio et. al. This paper anayses and discusses the potentional role of evolutionary theories in environmental innovation with emphasis on sustainability. The study concludes that eco – evolution is efficient when identifying non – optimal technological trajectories and sustainable options for innovation on the base of existent knowledge. 2003 Allen S. Bellas 2007 and Nancy F. 457 Following their introduction in the mid - Anslysis indicates that there 1970s, fabric filters, a new type of industrial are spesific characteristics of �Nentl scrubber, experineced aggressive growth, and by 1990, this new technology (EIA) form 767, using t tests, cross tabulations and binominal regression to identify the characteistics of those boilers, plants and utilities that installed fabric filters from the alte 1970s to 1990. David Hillier 2008 Dallas M. Cowan 2010 Et. Al. early adopters of fabric filter techonology such as the capacity and age of the associates boiler, the capacity and size of the utility, and whether the utility was privately or publicly owned. An opinion piece, that presents the view of There are those who believe four authors on the current state of the that marketing and depate in this field. sustainability simply be reconciled, while there are others who argue that marketing can contribute to the development of sustainable consumption. Benchmark analysis, They have collected information on the sustainability programs of the largest US companies in each of the 26 industrial sectors. Thes have called product sustainability one in which toxicologist and environmental scientist can play a vital role helping to ensure that a manufactured item will indeed be considered acceptable for distrubition now 4. Methodology Environmental Sustainability Index was developed for monitoring of environmental sustainability covering natural resources, past and present pollution levels, environmental management efforts, contributions and society for the protection of the global values. This index defines the sustainability of countries' capacity to improve the existing environmental quality (Yıkmaz, 2011: 73). Variables to allow comparisons between countries in the index, percent change is usually determined. Some of them are diveded by GDP, imports of goods and services, to get avarage values. After getting the proper comparison of variables, for the missing data, forecasting and consolidation various transformations is applied to perform. In the first stage variables were examined for normally distribution. 2 stage way is used for the skewness problems. 458 �If the value is larger than 2 variables are taken in natural logarithm. Next, if they are larger than 4 after the transformation .They all transformed to old values except the variables that have larger than 4. Since at the normal distribution, observations are distributed symmetrically around mean value of skew is zero(0). Statistical methods to estimate the missing data (Markov ChainMonte Carlo simulation model) were applied. However, some variables, the index of ecological and geographical factors are not within the scope of work because of missing data could not be estimated. The results of distributions are truncated by "Winsorization" technique in order to prevent skewness because of the extreme values of the data. Priorities of the indicators vary by country, generally acceptable weights for the indicators is not known, equal weight was applied. Indicators are equally weighted variables in the form of the firms themselves. Preserves the relative locations of receiving countries in order to avoid differences in the scale of the z-scores were calculated. High values for the variables expressed in a high zscores of environmental sustainability; (variable value-mean value) / standard deviation of the variables that environmental sustainability is for high-low values, (average of the variable-variable value) / standard deviation was calculated using the formula (WEF, 2005). 5. Results and Conclusion It’s emphasized that when Environmental Sustainability Index score is high, it’s more likely to leave a healthier environment to the future generations. Upon looking into the results of the index,it’s seen that none of the countries received high scores from 21 indicators. The results of the Environmental Sustainability Index show that, environmental performance is closely related to ,low population density, good governance the economic vitality (WEF, 2005). Table 1. Countries in the years 2002 and 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) Performance Comparison Chart Country ÇSE 2002 ÇSE 2002 ÇSE Ranking 2005 ÇSE 2005 Çse Point ÇSE as the Ranking Difference Difference Finland 73,9 1 75,1 1 1,2 0 Norway 73 2 73,4 2 0,4 0 Uruguay 66 6 71,8 3 5,8 3 459 �Sweden 72,6 3 71,7 4 -0,9 -1 Iceland 63,9 8 70,8 5 6,9 3 Canada 70,6 4 64,4 6 -6,2 -2 Switzerland 66,5 5 63,7 7 -2,8 -2 Guyana - - 62,9 8 - - Austria 64,2 7 62,7 9 -1,5 -2 Argentina 61,5 15 62,7 10 1,2 5 Brazil 59,6 20 62,2 11 2,6 9 Gabon 54,9 36 61,7 12 6,8 24 Australia 60,3 16 61 13 0,7 3 New Zealand 59,9 19 61 14 1,1 5 Latvia 63 10 60,4 15 -2,6 -5 Peru 56,5 29 60,4 16 3,9 13 Paraguay 57,8 25 59,7 17 1,9 8 Costa Rica 63,2 9 59,6 18 -3,6 -9 Croatia 62,5 12 59,5 19 -3 -7 Bolivia 59,4 21 59,5 20 0,1 1 Irelan 54,8 38 59,2 21 4,4 17 Colombia 59,1 22 58,9 22 -0,2 0 Lithuania 57,2 27 58,9 23 1,7 4 Alabania 57,9 24 58,8 24 0,9 0 460 �Central African Republic 54,1 43 58,7 25 4,6 18 Estonia 60 17 58,2 26 -1,8 -9 Denmark 56,2 31 58,2 27 2 4 Panama 60 18 57,7 28 -2,3 -10 Slovenia 58,8 23 57,5 29 -1,3 -6 Japan 48,6 78 57,3 30 8,7 48 Germany 52,5 50 57 31 4,5 19 Namibia 57,4 26 56,8 32 -0,6 -6 Russia 49,1 73 56,1 33 7 40 Bostwana 61,8 13 55,9 34 -5,9 -21 France 55,5 33 55,2 35 -0,3 -2 Papua New 51,8 Guinea 52 55,2 36 3,4 16 Portugal 57,1 28 54,2 37 -2,9 -9 Malaysia 49,5 68 54 38 4,5 30 Congo 54,3 40 53,8 39 -0,5 1 Netherlands 55,4 34 53,7 40 -1,7 -6 Mali 47,1 85 53,7 41 6,6 44 Chile 55,1 35 53,6 42 -1,5 -7 Bhutan 56,3 30 53,5 43 -2,8 -13 Armenia 54,8 37 53,2 44 -1,6 -7 461 �Unites States 53,2 45 53 45 -0,2 0 Slovakia 61,6 14 52,8 46 -8,8 -32 Belarus 52,8 49 52,8 47 0 2 Ghana 50,2 65 52,8 48 2,6 17 Myanmar 46,2 90 52,8 49 6,6 41 Laos 45,9 92 52,5 50 6,6 42 Ecuadar 56,2 32 52,4 51 -3,8 -19 Cuba 51,2 58 52,3 53 1,1 5 Hungary 62,7 11 52 54 -10,7 -43 Tunisia 50,8 61 51,8 55 1 6 Georgia - - 51,5 56 - - Uganda 48,7 77 51,3 57 2,6 20 Moldova 54,5 39 51,2 58 -3,3 -19 Zambia 49,5 69 51,1 59 1,6 10 Senegal 47,6 81 51,1 60 3,5 21 Bosnia51,3 Hezzegovina 55 51 61 -0,3 -6 Israel 50,4 63 50,9 62 0,5 1 Tanzania 48,1 80 50,3 63 2,2 17 Nicaragua 51,8 51 50,2 64 -1,6 -13 46,1 91 50,2 65 4,1 26 Combined Kingdom 462 �Madagascar 38,8 128 50,2 66 11,4 62 Greece 50,9 60 50,1 67 -0,8 -7 Italy 47,2 83 50,1 68 2,9 15 Cambodia 45,6 97 50,1 69 4,5 28 Mongolia 54,2 42 50 70 -4,2 -28 Bulgaria 49,3 71 50 71 0,7 0 Gambia 44,7 102 50 72 5,3 30 Thailand 51,6 54 49,8 73 -1,8 -19 Malawi 47,3 82 49,3 74 2 8 Spain 54,1 44 48,8 75 -5,3 -3,1 Indonesia 45,1 100 48,8 76 3,7 24 Kazakhstan 46,5 88 48,6 77 2,1 11 Guenia Bissau 38,8 127 48,6 78 9,8 49 Sri Lanka 51,3 57 48,5 79 -2,8 -22 Kyrgyzstan 51,3 56 48,4 80 -2,9 -24 Venezuela 53 48 48,1 81 -4,9 -33 Guinea 45,3 98 48,1 82 2,8 16 Oman 40,2 120 47,9 83 7,7 37 Jordan 51,7 53 47,8 84 -3,9 -31 Nepal 45,2 99 47,7 85 2,5 14 Benin 45,7 94 47,5 86 1,8 8 463 �Honduras 47 47,4 87 -5,7 -40 Serbia and Montenegro - 47,3 88 - -88 Canary Islands - - 47,3 89 - - Macedonia 47,2 84 47,2 90 0 -6 Turkey 50,8 62 46,6 91 -4,2 -29 Czech Republic 50,2 64 46,6 92 -3,6 -28 Romenia 50 66 46,2 93 -3,8 -27 South Africa 48,7 76 46,2 94 -2,5 -18 Mexico 45,9 93 46,2 95 0,3 -2 Algeria 49,4 70 46 96 -3,4 -26 Burkina Faso 45 101 45,7 97 0,7 4 Azerbaijan 41,8 113 45,4 98 3,6 15 Nigeria 36,7 133 45,4 99 8,7 34 Kenya 46,3 89 45,3 100 -1 -11 India 41,6 116 45,2 101 3,6 15 Poland 46,7 87 45 102 -1,7 -15 Chad 45,7 95 45 103 -0,7 8 Niger 39,4 123 45 104 5,6 19 Mozambique 51,1 59 44,8 105 -6,3 -46 Morocco 72 44,8 106 -4,3 -34 464 53,1 49,1 �Rwanda 40,6 119 44,8 107 4,2 12 Jamaica 40,1 121 44,7 108 4,6 13 Ukraine 35 136 44,7 109 9,7 27 United Arab 25,7 Emirates 141 44,6 110 18,9 31 Togo 44,3 105 44,5 111 0,2 -6 Belgium 39,1 125 44,4 112 5,3 13 Bangladesh 46,9 86 44,1 113 -2,8 -27 Democratic 43,3 Republic of Congo 109 44,1 114 0,8 -5 Guetemala 49,6 67 44 115 -5,6 -48 Egyptian 48,8 74 44 116 -4,8 -42 El Salvador 48,7 75 43,8 117 -4,9 -42 Syria 43,6 107 43,8 118 0,2 -11 Deminic Republic 48,4 79 43,7 119 -4,7 -40 Liberia 37,7 130 43,4 120 5,7 10 Sierra Leone 36,5 134 43,4 121 6,9 13 South Korea 35,9 135 43 122 7,1 13 Angola 42,4 110 42,9 123 0,5 -13 Resource: WEF 2005 142 countries in 2002 and 146 countries in 2005 were evaluated from the aspect of country index. All the countries except Guayana, Georgia, Ivory Coasts and Somalia were both in 2002 and 2005 country index. 465 �In the table given the index average of all countries in 2002 was 49,7 and 49,9 in 2005. But when 2002 and 2005 index values are compared, a decrease in most of the countries has been seen. This situation indicates that environmental sustainability has decreased or it may be because of the difference in two years indicators. However, significant changes in country rankings can be observed. For example, Madagascar ascends from being 128th to 66th , Japan from 78th to the 30th, Mali from 85th to 41st , Russia from 73rd to 33rd , Malaysia from 68th to the 38th order , but Zimbabwe descends from being 46th to 128th, Guatemala from 67th to 115th , Egypt from 74th to 116th, and Hungary from 11th to 54th. Turkey has 50,8 points in 2002 Index with an order of 62. In 2005 Turkey has 46,6 points and descends to the 91th order. Turkey is over the avarage in 2002 while it is under the avarage in 2005. In this study we try to compare the two Environmental Sustainability Index in 2002 and 2005 for the world countries. This situation shows the index is very sensitive to the choice of indicator. Low-scoring countries in 2002 are Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, North Korea, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, while in the 2005 study, North Korea, Iraq, Taiwan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, countries receive the lowest score The highest rated 5 countries in the 2002 Environmental Sustainability Index are: Finland, Norway, Sweden, Canada, Switzerland, while in 2005 they are: Finland, Norway, Uruguay, Sweden and Iceland. Common features of these countries have significant natural resources and population density is low. REFERENCES BAKIRTAŞ İbrahim ve Hülya Bakırtaş (2007), Sustainability of Competitive of Firms as A source of Basic Skills: A General Evaluation, Journal of Management and Economics, Vol.14, No.2, pp. 221-233. 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Paustenbach (2010), A Cross- Sectional Analysis of Reported 466 �Corporate Environmental Sustainability Practices, Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology, Vol. 58, pp. 524-538. GLOBAL LEADERS (2001), Pilot Environmental Sustainability Index, World Economic Forum 2001, Davos, Switzerland. GOODLAND Robert and Herman Daly (1996), Environmental Sustainability: Universal and Non Negotiable, Ecological Applications, Vol. 6 , No.4, pp.1002-1017. HONTOU, V., D. Diakoulaki, L.Papagiannakis (2006), A Multicriterion Classsification Approach for Assesing the Impact of Environmental Policies on the Competitiveness of Firms, Corp. Soc. Respons. Environ. Manage, Vol. 14, pp. 28-41. JOFRE, Sergio, Kiyotaka Tsunemi, Tohru Moriaka (2003), A New Eco – Design Strategy to Assess Sustainable Environmental Innovations, Third International Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and Inverse Manufacturing, Tokyo, Japan, December 811. JONES, Peter, Colin Clarke-Hill, Daphne Comfort, David Hillier (2008), Marketing and Sustainability, Marketing Intelligence & Planning Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 123-130. LEE, J.J., T.K. Gemba, F. Kodoma (2006), Analyzing the Innovation Process for Environmental Performance Improvement, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 73, pp. 290-301. ÖZYOL, Arzu (http://hydra.com.tr/uploads/kutup9.pdf). RENNINGS, K. (2000), Redefining Innovation – eco-innovation Research and the Contribution from Ecological Economics, Ecological Economics, Vol. 32, pp. 319-332. SATTERFILED M.B., C.E. Kolb, R. Peoples, G.L. Adams, D.S. Schuster, H.C. Ramsey, E. Stechel, F. Wood-Black, R.J. Garant, M.A. Abraham (2009), Overcoming Nontechinal Barriers to the Implementation of Sustainable Solutions in Industry, Environ.Sci. Technol., Vol. 43, pp. 4221-4226 . THEYEL Gregory (2000), Management Practices for Environmental Innovation and Performance, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 249-266. YIKMAZ R. Fikret (2011), Measuring the Sustainability of Development and Improvement of Methods for Turkey, T.C. Prime Ministry State Planning Organization, Publication No. 2820, Ankara, Turkey. WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development) (1987), Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future, Item 83, 42nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly. WEF (2005), World Economic Form, Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policiy and Center For International Earth Science Information Network, Environmental Sustainability 467 �Index: Bencmarking National Environmental http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/es/esi/esı2005 (23.04.2012). Stewardship, Traffic Accident Detection By Using Machine Learning Methods Nejdet Dogru, Abdulhamit Subasi International Burch University,Sarajevo, Bosnia And Herzegovina E –mails: ndogru@ibu.edu.ba, asubasi@ibu.edu.ba Abstract There are lots of studies about preventing or detecting the car accidents. Most of them includes sensing objects which might cause accident or statistics about accidents. In this study, a system which detects happening accidents will be studied. The system will collect necessary information from neighbor vehicles and process that information using machine learning tools to detect possible accidents. Machine learning algorithms have shown success on distinguishing abnormal behaviors than normal behaviors. This study aims to analyze traffic behavior and consider vehicles which move different than current traffic behavior as a possible accident. Results showed that clustering algorithms can successfully detect accidents. 1.INTRODUCTION Recent inter vehicular studies are acquiring commercial interest via the DSRC/WAVE standard in Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs). Possible future services among vehicles are topic of many studies(Xu et al., 2004; Nandan et al., 2005; Lee and Gerla, 2010) In VANETs, vehicles are able to communicate with each other in vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) or with roadside network infrastructure in vehicle-to-Roadside Communication (V2R) manner. Some of the envisioned applications for vehicular networks are : vehicle collision warning, security distance warning, driver assistance, cooperative driving, cooperative cruise control,dissemination of road information, internet access, map location, automatic parking, driverless vehicles(Boukerche et al., 2008) Most of applications need traffic speed and travel time measurements. These measurements can be used to help roadway users to decide which route to use or when to depart etc. Also These measurement can be saved to analyze traffic speed and travel time patterns for different time intervals. Currently local detectors at specific points along the road are used to 468 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1203 Title A name given to the resource Neural-Network Applications for Analysis of Infilled Frame Author Author Muhiddin, Bağcı Abstract A summary of the resource. The modelling of infilled frames is complex due to the large number of variables as well as the non-linear material behaviour involved. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is found to be a tool capable of solving such problems. This has led to the increasing use of ANN for analysing infilled reinforced concrete frames. This paper reports the details of a study conducted using ANN for predicting the failure of an infilled reinforced concrete infilled frame subjected to lateral loading. Using the data generated based on analytical solutions, the ANN model was trained. The so trained model was tested for different set of input parameters and the output values were compared with the actual values based on analytical results. The agreement was found to be good. Keywords:. Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Infilled Frame, Equivalent strut method Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),T Technology (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d02446d5915ce5eab6c60aa4382e8ce7.pdf d6b3b5079e40849d2427337ea53f94be PDF Text Text Neural-Network Applications for Analysis of Infilled Frame Muhiddin Bağcı, Hakan Başaran Celal Bayar University, 45140, Manisa, Turkey. E-mails: muhiddin.bagci@bayar.edu.tr,hakan.basaran@bayar.edu.tr,ali.demir@bayar.edu.tr Abstract The modelling of infilled frames is complex due to the large number of variables as well as the non-linear material behaviour involved. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is found to be a tool capable of solving such problems. This has led to the increasing use of ANN for analysing infilled reinforced concrete frames. This paper reports the details of a study conducted using ANN for predicting the failure of an infilled reinforced concrete infilled frame subjected to lateral loading. Using the data generated based on analytical solutions, the ANN model was trained. The so trained model was tested for different set of input parameters and the output values were compared with the actual values based on analytical results. The agreement was found to be good. Keywords:. Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Infilled Frame, Equivalent strut method 1. INTRODUCTION The principle behind Artificial Neural Networks is the functioning of the human brain. Different areas in engineering and technology use this technique for solving complex problems. In civil engineering, it is successfully applied to areas like optimal design of structures, earthquake characterization, damage detection etc. It is found to be efficient for analysing structures which are otherwise very difficult to analyse due to various constraints. Different approaches have been used in the past to analyse the infilled-framed structures. In general, the theoretical studies were followed by experiments to evaluate the reliability of the proposed method. In most of the experimental investigations, only models are used since testing of prototype structures will be costly, time consuming and laborious. The infill walls are used as partitions and / or architectural elements. The presence of infill is usually neglected in conventional designs. Since the interaction between the frame and the infill plays an important role in the stiffness and strength of infilled frames, a method in which the infill portion is neglected will not be a realistic one. Maurizio Papia [1998] used numerical analysis to examine the behaviour of infilled frames subjected to horizontal loads. Stafford Smith [1962] studied the behaviour of infilled frames subjected to inplane loading, by replacing the infill by an equivalent strut and considering the 445 �infill neither as an integral part nor bonded to the frame. Stafford Smith and Carter [1969] considered the possibility of failure occurring either by diagonal cracking or by crushing of infill. By an analogy with the behaviour of beam on elastic foundation, the contact length was expressed as a function of λh, where λ is a non-dimensional parameter. The method was evaluated by testing a three-storey prototype building. The estimated values agreed well with the experimental results. A six-storey steel frame with rigid joints was analysed by Jenkins [1995] using ANN. He concluded that ANNs could be used for the analysis provided the training data is sufficient and the number of units in the hidden layer is adequate to represent the internal features and relationships connecting input and output values. Muralikrishna and Gangadharam [1999] investigated a single bay single storey portal frame subjected to inplane nodal loads and demonstrated that ANN can accommodate the non-linear behaviour of infill/frame materials as well as their non-homogeneity and, the uncertainties like lack of fit at the frame/infill. 2. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS The present study is concerned with the prediction of the collapse load and the displacement of infilled reinforced concrete frames under lateral loading using ANN .For this, a five storey building with number of bays ranging from one to five is considered. The data for training and testing were formed using analytical results.For generating the data analytically, equivalent strut method was used. The database consists of 63 sets of results, of which 55 sets were used for training the network, and the remaining 8 were used for testing 2.1. Equivalent Strut Method The design method based on equivalent strut concept developed by Stafford Smith and Carter [1969] is used here for the analysis. This method predicts the lateral strength and stiffness of the brick infilled composite frame . The stiffness and strength of an infilled panel depend not only on its dimensions and physical properties but also on its length of contact with the surrounding frames. The length of contact α is governed by the relative stiffness of the infill and the frame and Stafford Smith and Carter [1969] suggest an approximate relation,  h   2h (1) in which h= height of storey and λh = a non- dimensional parameter expressing the relative stiffness of the frame and the infill ,  h 4 446 E m t sin 2 4E c I c h (2) �where Em = Young’s modulus of elasticity of infill, t = Thickness of infill, h1 = Height of infill ,Ic = Second moment of area of the column, Ec = Young’s modulus of elasticity of column concrete and θ = Slope of the infill diagonal to the horizontal. The relative stiffness parameter λh provides the key to the estimation of an infilled frame’s behaviour, and it therefore assumes a prominent role in the development and presentation of the methods for predicting the strength and stiffness. In estimating the lateral strength of an infilled frame, it is necessary to find the weakest of the various modes of failure of the frame and the infill. The possible failure modes of the frame include the tensile failure of the columns and beams, shear failure of the column and, joint failure between the column and the beam. An approximate method to determine the strength, based on these modes, is to analyse the forces in the equivalent pin-jointed frame subjected to known horizontal loading, assuming the infills to be replaced by diagonal struts. The calculated tensile load in the column and beam and the shearing components of the load in the diagonal struts may then be compared with the respective strengths of the columns and beams. Assuming the frame has adequate strength, the brick infill may fail by one of the following modes. -Tension cracking of the mortar joints and masonry -Shear cracking along the interface between the bricks and mortar (bed joints) -Local crushing of the masonry at the mortar in one of the compressed corners of the infill. 2.1.1 Diagonal cracking of infill The diagonal tensile strength of masonry may be assumed to be equal to the tensile strength of the mortar in all cases where the mortar has lower tensile strength than the individual bricks. Using the curves relating the width of the of the equivalent strut and the nondimensional parameter λh given by Stafford Smith and Carter [1969] , the diagonal cracking tensile strength of brickwork was obtained by Govindan [1986] as l Rt  3.1 l ft h t h l    0.98  h 0.48  ll     l  h   -0.1 (3) where Rt = Diagonal load on the infill to cause cracking, ft = Tensile stress of the infill and l1 = length of infill. 2.1.2. Shear strength of infill The resistance of masonry to shear stresses is usually considered to be provided by the combined action of the bond, shear strength and the friction between the masonry and mortar. Using the design curves given by Stafford Smith and Carter [1969], the following 447 �relationship was derived by Govindan [1986] for calculating the shear failure load of the infill. l Rs  1.65 l fs ht h l    0.6  h  ll   l -0.05 h     0.50 (4) where Rs = Diagonal load on the infill to cause shear failure of infill and fs = Maximum shear stress of the infill. 2.1.3. Compressive failure After cracking in the brick infill due to shear and/or tension, it has been observed from experiments that the corner region of the infill, where crushing takes place generally extends along the column contact length α. Based on this, Stafford Smith and Carter [1969] developed an approximate formula for the diagonal compressive strength Rc = α t Secθ fm (5) where Rc = Compressive failure load and fm = Compressive stress of the infill. Substituting the value of α, the compressive failure load can be expressed in the nondimensional form as Rc   sec  fm ht 2 h (6) . For a given infilled frame, λh can be calculated and these expressions can be used to obtain ll the failure load corresponding to the infill for any aspect ratio, hl . Unit load method has been used for calculating the deflection of the frames. The equivalent strut width for each individual panel in a multistory building varies with the applied loading and consequently, the stiffness of the structure decreases as the lateral load increases. The stiffness of the equivalent frame for any value of load can be determined by considering appropriate equivalent widths of the diagonal struts for the particular load and computing FUL Σ A E . It is often useful to know the total lateral displacement at a particular loading. Based on the Mechanics of materials approach, the horizontal displacement under any load as given by Stafford Smith and Carter [1969] is δH= H Σf FUL H 2 + A I E 2 Hc Σs FUL A I _ A C AE A I .A C (7) where δH = total horizontal displacement under applied load, H = Applied load, Σf = Summation sign for all beams and columns in the frame including diagonal strut, Σs = Summation sign for all diagonal struts only, F= force in members due to applied load H, U = Force in members due to unit load applied, at the point and in the direction in which 448 �displacement is required, AI = Initial cross-sectional area of members, including diagonal strut when H/Hc=0. Ac = Cross-sectional area of diagonal struts when H/Hc=1 in critical panel, all others proportioned accordingly, E= Modulus of elasticity of frame members and infill, Hc = Horizontal load, to cause crushing in the critical panel infill, determined from the appropriate value of Rc / (fm. h t ) for the particular value of λh, L=Length of member. 2.2. Identification of Parameters Based on a critical study of the parameters affecting the strength and stiffness of infilled frames, ten major parameters were identified. They are; aspect ratio, number of bays, area of column, column steel, column stirrups, area of beam, beam steel, type of concrete, type of steel used for the construction and a non-dimensional parameter λh representing the infill behaviour. Concrete of grades C20, C25, C30, C35 and steel of grade S420 and S500 are used in the analysis. Hence the number of nodes or processing elements in the input layer of the network comes to 14 representing the ten parameters listed above plus the four extra grades for concrete and steel considered. The output layer consists of three nodes for the collapse loads corresponding to frame as well as infill and the top storey displacement of the frame at the verge of failure. Table 1. Range of Values for Data Base Parameter Symbol Range Aspect ratio l/h 1 to 2.5 No.of bays B 1 to 5 Area of column Ac 0.02 to 0.15 Area of column steel Acst Area of beam Ab 0.0068 to 0.0100 m2 0.05 to 0.12 m2 Area of beam steel Abst Area of stirrups Asv Non-dimensional parameter Grade of concrete 449 characteristic length Λh C20,C25,C30 C35 0.000315 0.00250 m2 0.000195 0.00113 m2 to to 2 to 15 and 20, 25, 30 and 35 MPa �Grade of steel S420,S500 420, 500 MPa 2.3 Configuration of the Network 2.3.1 Selection of error tolerance A numerical study of training and testing of the network was done keeping the error tolerance values as 0.1, 0.01 and 0.001.For an error tolerance of 0.1, the number of cycles required is less: but the results are less accurate. In the case of 0.001, even though the accuracy is high, the numbers of cycles required are very high. Hence, keeping in mind the number of cycles required for convergence together with the accuracy needed for training and testing, the error tolerance was chosen as 0.01. 2.3.2 Selection of number of hidden layers. The first step in the configuration of the network is the selection of the number of hidden layers to be used. The parametric study is made to find out the optimum number of hidden layers as well as the number of nodes for the present problem. With one hidden layer, the architecture is able to attain the required error tolerance of 0.01 within 5000 cycles considered for all the combinations of neurons considered. The network with one hidden layers having the 14-10-3 architecture is chosen since it reaches the required error tolerance with the least number of cycles, which in turn will reduce the CPU time requirement. 2.3.3 Selection of learning rate and momentum parameters For the chosen architecture of 14-10-3, the number of cycles required to reach the desired error tolerance of 0.01 are computed for different learning rates and momentum parameters. The results are shown in Table 2. From the table, it can be seen that a learning rate of 0.7 and momentum parameter of 0.9 are the optimum values since only this combination requires the minimum number of cycles to achieve the required error tolerance. Hence, these values are used in the analysis. 2.3.4 Training of the network Using the 14-10-3 architecture and the learning rate, momentum parameter values of 0.7, 0.9 , the network is trained and then tested. For training the network, totally 55 data set are used which are listed under Table 2. These data sets were generated analytically using the equivalent strut method. 450 �Table 2. Data Set Used Training INPUT OUTPUT B l/h S420 S500 C20 C25 C30 C35 Ac Ab Acst Abst λh Asv C-F C-I Δ 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.0068 0.000315 2 0.000195 18.8 89.34 25.467 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.06 0.05 0.0214 0.001030 6 0.000503 61.1 186.9 34.896 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.06 0.05 0.0214 0.001030 10 0.000503 61.1 136.80 35.769 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.5 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.08 0.0357 0.001730 10 0.000785 826 766.7 121.133 5 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.08 0.0357 0.001730 4 0.000785 1035 547 70.98 5 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.08 0.0357 0.001730 8 0.000785 1035 899 142.049 NOT: C-F = Collapse load corresponding to frame in kN , C-I= Collapse load corresponding to infill in kN, Δ= Displacement of frame at the top level under collapse load in mm. 2.3.5 Testing of the network The network, after being trained, is tested with 8 data sets.. The data sets used for testing the network are shown in Table 3. Table 3. Data Set Used Testing INPUT OUTPUT B l/h S420 S500 C20 C25 C30 C35 Ac Ab Acst Abst λh Asv C-F C-I Δ 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.05 0.05 0.0214 0.001030 6 0.000503 148 301.1 61.383 2 2.5 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.08 0.0357 0.001730 4 0.000785 546 217.6 28.237 3 1.5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.06 0.05 0.0214 0.001030 6 0.000503 322 612.4 42.905 3 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.08 0.0357 0.001730 8 0.000785 658 515.2 81.409 4 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.02 0.02 0.0068 0.000315 2 0.000195 101 281.3 11.115 4 1.5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.06 0.05 0.0214 0.001030 2 0.000503 429 394.3 46.650 5 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.08 0.0357 0.001730 8 0.000785 1035 899 142.049 5 2.5 0 1 0 0 0 1 0.15 0.12 0.0510 0.002500 15 0.001130 1795 700.6 110.669 3. RESULTS and DISCUSSION 451 �The collapse load and displacement predicted using ANN is compared with the actual values in Fig.1. In these figures, the diagonal lines represent a one to one correspondence, that is, when the predicted and the actual values are identical. The results clearly show that for the frame and infill failure, the collapse load values predicted using neural network vary only marginally (the maximum variation is only 4%) from the actual values for the data formed using equivalent strut method. In the case of the displacement of the frame under collapse load, the predicted values using neural network vary only marginally (maximum of 5%) from the actual values, be it based on experiments or equivalent strut method. It can be stated that overall the prediction is very good. Figure 1. Comparison of predicted and actual values. 4. CONCLUSION The conventional analysis of infilled frames is complex due to the large number of parameters and the non-linear behaviour involved. Hence, the practice is to ignore the contribution from the infill and analyse the structure as a bare frame. However, it is well known that the infill affects the behaviour of the structure significantly. In this context, Artificial Neural Network is increasingly used effectively as a tool for the analysis of infilled reinforced concrete frames. In this paper, a multilayer feed forward network with back 452 �propagation algorithm has been adopted to model a five storey infilled frame with number of bays ranging from one to five. The training patterns were generated using the equivalent strut method with different modes of failures in the frame and infill to arrive at the collapse load for the infill and frame as well as the displacements. The performance of the network has been demonstrated by comparing the output with the analytically generated values. Based on the investigation, it can be stated that ANN models can predict the behaviour of infilled frames efficiently. REFERENCES Maurizio, P. (1988). Analysis of Infilled Frames Using a Coupled Finite Element and Boundary Element Solution Scheme. International Journal of Numerical Methods in Engineering, 28, 731-742. Stafford, S. B. (1962). Lateral Stiffness of Infilled Frames’, Journal of Structural Divisions, ASCE, 88, 183-199. Stafford, S.B. & Carter, C. (1969). A Method of Analysis for Infilled Frames’, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers 44, 31-48. Jenkins, W.M., (1995). Neural Network Based Approximation for Structural Analysis. Developments in Neural Networks and Evolutionary Computing for Civil and Structural Engineering. Edinburgh. Muralikrishna, N. & Gangadharam, D. (1999). Analysis of Infilled Frames a Study Using Neuralnets’, Journal of Structural Engineering, 26, 173-178. Laurence, F. (1993). Fundamentals of neural network-Architectures, Algorithms, and Applications’. Prentice Hall, Eaglewood Cliffs: NJ 1993. Hojjat, A & Hyo S. P. (1995). Counter propagation neural networks in structural engineering’ , Journal of Structural Division, ASCE, 14 , 1205-1212. Wael, W. E., Mohamed, E. & Ahmad, H. (2003). ‘Three strut model for concrete masonry infilled steel frames. Journal of structural Division ASCE , 129, 177-185. Perumal, E. B. (1995). Influence of Brick Infill on Multistory, Multi-bay R.C.Frames’, Ph.D Thesis, Coimbatore Institute of Technology, Coimbatore. Govindan, P. (1986). Composite Action and Ductility of Reinforced Concrete Frames With Brick Infill’, Ph.D Thesis, Anna University 453 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1202 Title A name given to the resource Neural-Network Applications for Analysis of Infilled Frame Author Author Muhiddin, Bağcı Abstract A summary of the resource. The modelling of infilled frames is complex due to the large number of variables as well as the non-linear material behaviour involved. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is found to be a tool capable of solving such problems. This has led to the increasing use of ANN for analysing infilled reinforced concrete frames. This paper reports the details of a study conducted using ANN for predicting the failure of an infilled reinforced concrete infilled frame subjected to lateral loading. Using the data generated based on analytical solutions, the ANN model was trained. The so trained model was tested for different set of input parameters and the output values were compared with the actual values based on analytical results. The agreement was found to be good. Keywords:. Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Infilled Frame, Equivalent strut method Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),T Technology (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/27988e8de5c88dde9e43f9bd2e40268f.pdf 9017381796b1f7c1c00f6f74a633093e PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dudu Evren, Ü., Ç. Kanlıtepe, C. Çıracı, G. Dönmez, 2001. Tuz Göl,’nden (Konya-Türkiye) izole edilen Dunaliella türlerinin gliserol üretim kapasitesinin belirlenmesi. Ege Üniversitesi Su Ürünleri Dergisi, 1. Alg Teknoloji Sempozyumu p, 225-232 (In Turkish). Durmaz, Y., Gökpınar Ş., 2006. Dunaliella salina (Chlorophyceae) Büyümesi Üzerine Tuzluluğun Etkileri. E.Ü. Su Ürünleri Dergisi, pp:121-124. Garcia, F., Freile-Pelegrin, Y., Robledo, D., 2007. Physilogical characterization of Dunaliella sp. (Chlorophyta, Volvocales) from Yucatan, Mexico. Bioresource Technology,pp:1359-1365 Javor, B., 1989. Hypersaline Enviroments: Microbiology and Biogeochemistry. 1st Edn., Springer-Verlag, New York, pp:328. Lamers, P.P., Janssen, M., De Vos, C.H.R., Bino, J.R. and Wijffels, R.H. 2008. Exploring and exploiting carotenoid accumulation in Dunaliella salina for cell-factory applications. Cell Press, pp:631. Kaçka, A., Dönmez, G., 2008. Isolation of Dunaliella spp. from a hypersaline lake and their ability to accumulate glyserol. Bioresource Technology, pp.8348. Massyuk, 1973. Morphology, taxonomy, ecology and geographic distribution of the genus DunaliellaTeod. and prospects for its potential utilisation. Kiev: Naukova Dumka. Massyuk. pp. 312. Taherzadeh, M.J., Adler, L., Liden, G., 2002. Strategies for enhancing fermentative production of glycerol-a review. Enzyme Microbiol. Technol. 31, 53–66. Wang, Z.X., Zhuge, J., Fang, H., Prior, B.A., 2001. Glycerol production by microbial fermentation: a review. Biotechnol. Adv. 19, 201–223. Interactions between chemicals used in aquaculture and environment in terms of sustainable development Muhammet Altunok , Fatih Gülec , Zerife Peker , Klaus Kümmerer Abstract Aquaculture that is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants, is the fastest growing animal production sector in the world. Global production from aquaculture for human consumption amounted to 73 million tonnes and the value of US$ 110 billion in 2009 and comprised almost fifty percent of the world’s fish supply. Aquaculture, thus, plays an important role in global efforts towards eliminating malnutrition and brings significant health benefits by nutritional well-being. It significantly dominates most devoloping countries in terms of contribution to development by increasing gross domestic product, providing employment opportunities and improving incomes. The potentially adverse impacts of aquaculture that is also threat the sustainability when the sector grows unregulated or under poor management, is of considerable current environmental 118 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo and public interest in the world. Besides eutrophication and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the main environmental pressure associated with intensive aquaculture is chemicals (antibiotics, hormones, fungicides, pesticides, antifoulants, anaesthetics and disinfectants) used in aquaculture. The intensive systems are often associated with various greater use of different types of antibiotics and chemicals generate very different effects on the environment, mainly on water and sediment quality (nutrient and organic matter loads), natural aquatic communities (toxicity, community structure, biodiversity), and microorganisms (alteration of microbial communities, drug resistant strains). The interactions between humans, antibiotics, bacteria, fish and aquatic environments are poorly understood and recent studies show a significant pollution of surface waters with antibiotics and other chemicals which are potential risk to drinking waters. Moreover, as a vicious circle and often as well, aquaculture is also negatively affected by pollution of water supplies by other human activities (ie: agriculture and industrial activities). The environmental approach to sustainable development can control the use of chemicals to eliminate or reduce any negative effects to an acceptable level. Sustainability requires global action, and therefore an effective solution can be achieved on the basis of environmentallyfriendly management systems towards social-ecological aquaculture to integrate aquaculture, environment and society locally and globally. This paper, consequently, addresses the relevance of the environmental approach to the role of aquaculture in sustainable development. Keywords: Aquaculture, Chemicals, Antibiotics, Environment, Sustainable Development 1.INTRODUCTION Securing a safe and sustainable food supply for an increasing population is one of the world's biggest challenges. Fish and aquatic organisms provide an important source of protein. But, global population demand for aquatic food products is increasing while traditional wildcapture fisheries have reached a plateau. Aquaculture is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants in ponds and large net-cages. Farming of aquatic organisms is becoming an important source of food in both international trade and subsistence sectors. After growing steadily for the last four decades, it is now a substantial global industry supplying nearly half of the world's supply of fishery products (fish and other aquatic organisms) consumed as food. It may be an alternative supply to the increasing demand for aquatic products, strong international competition, constant change in consumer needs and expectations, and also depletion of fisheries, providing to reduce the pressure on wild stocks. In terms of its economic productivity, the contribution of aquaculture to trade, both local and international, is also increasing. The aquaculture industry has a potential for further development, but there are some problems with environmental concerns and market instability, locally and globally. Eutrophication, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), chemical pollution, exotic species wild fish stocks and pathogens are some examples of the main environmental impact concerns associated with intensive aquaculture (Naylor et al. 2000). Under potential risk of these impacts, without any rules in context of ecological assessment and sustainable practices, it is not to be expected that aquaculture will continue to supply the demand for aquatic products for a long time. 119 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo At this time of strong public concern throughout the world particularly about the impact of aquaculture on human health and environment especially regarding the use of chemicals are reflected in the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (FAO 1995). In this Code there are several advices, such as the promoting effective farm and fish health management practices (favouring hygienic measures and vaccines), the ensuring safe, effective and minimal use of chemicals (e.g. therapeutants, hormones and drugs, antibiotics and other disease control chemicals), regulating the use of chemical inputs in aquaculture (if they are hazardous to human health and the environment). Status and scope of aquaculture Overall, 80 percent of the world fish stocks are reported as fully exploited or overexploited and are thus unable to withstand additional fishing pressure. The continuing depletion of the world’s fish stocks has led to an increasing demand for aquatic food from aquaculture which has been expanded rapidly worldwide. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global total production of fish, crustaceans and molluscs, including wild capture and aquaculture, reached to approximately 145 million tonnes in 2009 consisted of 90 million tonnes captured which has been stayed level since 2001, plus 55 million tonnes produced by farms (Figure 1). Aquaculture production has continued increasing at an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent from 34.6 million tonnes in 2001 to current level and the value of aquaculture production was estimated at USD 105.3 billion in 2009. It is the fastest growing sector of the food economy. About 84 percent of total fishery production (121.8 million tonnes in 2009) was used for direct human consumption. Global per capita consumption has been increased steadily and reached to an average of 18 kg in 2009 with the share of aquaculture production in total food supply at 46 percent. According to FAO projections, it is estimated that in order to maintain the current levels of consumption, an additional 40 million tonnes of seafood will be required by 2030 and global aquaculture production will need to reach minimum 80 million tonnes by 2050 (FAO, 2007). According to the international marketing records 38.5 percent (live weight equivalent) was exported in 2009 and the value reached USD 96.0 billion. The share of developing countries in this percent was 50.6 percent by value and 60.1 percent by quantity (live weight equivalent) in 2009. Figure 1. Trends in world aquaculture production (FAO, 2010) 120 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo All of these statistics show the important role of aquaculture in global efforts against hunger and malnutrition for both developed and developing countries by supplying fish and other aquatic products contain excellent animal protein and other essential fatty acids, vitamins and minerals. It also contributes to food availability to improve global food security. In terms of food quality, aquatic products bring significant health benefits and contribute to nutritional well-being. It can also make important contributions to the social and economic development of countries through improving incomes, providing employment opportunities and increasing the effective use of resources. It significantly contributes to the national gross domestic products in many developing countries. This may provide a more productive investment opportunity for local resources as well as playing important socio-economic role in rural regions. 2.What is sustainability or sustainable development? In general, "sustainability" and "sustainable development" is a concept to guarantee a liveable environment for all people in the long term. In this concept, aquaculture is highly diverse and consists of a broad spectrum of species, systems and practices. Thus, several indicators, codes and guidelines for sustainable development in aquaculture have been evaluated in recent years (Folke and Kautsky, 1989; Subasinghe et al., 2009). Mostly these indicators can generally be grouped into two main categories: Ecological and socio-economical indicators. Ecologic indicators are aiming preservation of a functional environment, while socio-economic criterions are to provide clear economic advantages for aquaculture farmers and social equity to improve the community's welfare in the long term. There is still little known, how sustainability can be increased in aquaculture and there is no complete practicable criteria to certify the sustainability status of aquaculture operations. According to the criteria systems in previous evaluations, sustainable development is an integrative framework involving ecological, economical and social sustainability. Although, all may seem of equal importance, the current focus is primarily on the economy to achieve the competitiveness. However, environmental issue is a very important part of the development process as no activity in aquaculture will take place if there is not good quality water resources left. Economy and society fundamentally rise up on the natural world and resources, and these are serving to improve the standing of environmental concerns. Therefore, sustainable development in aquaculture industry must be environmentally friendly that means conserving land, water and wildlife resources. Along with too much complexity in sustainable development of aquaculture, there are many concerns about environmental indicators containing two important components, resource use and pollution. In this respect, the sustainable use of natural resources was described by EU Commission in 6th Environmental Action Programme (6 EAP) as: "the consumption of resources and their associated impacts cannot exceed the carrying capacity of the environment and the linkages between economic growth and resource use must be limited". Water resources are essential for life and health besides food and other products put huge demands. Globally, the problem of water shortage is getting worse as the needs for clean water increase in agriculture, industry and households because wastage and pollution is alarming critical limits day by day. Therefore, everyone must be a part of efforts to conserve and protect the water resources. Aquaculture will continue to play an increasing role in fishery products to meet the globally rising demand but the chemicals used in aquaculture put pressure on the environment around 121 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the world (Costello et al., 2001). As a result of technical development and incorporation of advanced technology much of the fish farming systems have moved from extensive to intensive systems that pose environmental risks and threats to the surrounding ecosystem in rivers, water reservoirs and oceans. Much scientific literatures have identified the environmental risks and impacts of the farming of aquatic organisms in open systems (Costello et al., 200; Buschmann et al., 2009). Another important concern is intensification implies increasing the number of individuals and increase potential for the spread of pathogens. This spreading is requiring greater use of inputs (e.g. disinfectants, drugs) and greater generation of waste products presenting a global threat to both the aquatic environment and consumer safety (Kümmerer, 2009). To date, however, aquacultural chemicals have not been paid sufficient attention to the significant risks that would accompany the growth of the industry. Chemical inputs and current situation of chemical usage in aquaculture Table 1: Analysis of the chemical usage in aquaculture. Wide range of potentially hazardous chemicals used in aquaculture operations. Strengths Disease problems worldwide. Uncontrolled and high local use of aquacultural chemicals. Inefficient control and regulations for chemical usage in aquaculture There is insufficient monitoring of chemical residues for aquatic products. Technical knowledge of chemical analysis specific to aquaculture practices is limited. Weaknesses Concept of carrying capacity models to aquaculture systems are nonexistent for certain locations and particularly closed basins in countries. There is no certification system and guidelines developed for environmentally sound and sustainable aquaculture and not harmonized worldwide. Lack of successful environmentally friendly aquaculture demonstration sites for extension purposes nationally. Sustainable and environmentally sound aquaculture practices will reduce the pressures on environment. Opportunities Increasing awareness in local and international. Generating public environmental awareness and education Developing of technology and knowledge on the chemicals used in aquaculture. Inefficient waste management in aquaculture. Threats There is still no monitoring system for aquacultural chemicals in environment. Lack of institutional infrastructure to facilitate sustainable aquaculture 122 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo development. Low technical level of fish farmers. Lack of knowledge of the environmental impacts of aquacultural chemicals. The aquaculture industry is a kind of agricultural sector and chemicals developed originally for animal husbandry but now it common use in both. The chemicals are also essential for increased and controlled production of progeny in hatcheries, increased feeding efficiency, improvement of survival rates, control of pathogens and diseases, and reduction in transport stress (Howe et al., 1995). However, effects of chemicals on the aquatic environment have not been specifically evaluated. The lack of data on their use has complicated the problem. The chemicals used in aquaculture includes soil and water treatments, fertilisers, disinfectants, herbicides, antibacterial agents, other therapeutants, pesticides, feed additives, anaesthetics and hormones. Antifoulants: are used on solid surfaces, ropes and generally on nets in cage aquaculture systems. Even if the antifoulants are generated and used for protection of boat surfaces, they are also used to treat nets and this usage must be of concern if used in fish culture. Disinfectants: are applied as external treatment for fish and especially for eggs and fry. These agents are applied directly in aquatic environment and some of them could be very persistently toxic to aquatic life at low concentrations such as formalin. Farmers will be ensure that the potential for contamination of the environment will be able to minimised. Pesticides: generally are used to control ectoparasits in fish culture. Some of them such as organophosphates may produce vital effects on the health of farm workers. Anaesthetics: are used in stripping of broods and during transport of fish in aquaculture to sedate and calm the aquatic organisms. Hormones: plays an important role to control and induce ovulation for the control of reproduction as well as sex control for mono-sex production in aquaculture. Veterinary pharmaceuticals: are applied in aquaculture as medicated feed and diluted in water and most of them are preferred to prophylactic use rather than against diseases in many countries. Therefore, using of these therapeutic agents are controlled by drug licensing programmes, monitoring of limits on tissue residues and for environmental residues to minimise the risks in terms of human and environmental health. Heavy use of antibiotics in aquaculture: Antimicrobials have been applied in aquaculture for over 50 years and its use has grown both in numbers and quantity, as the problem of diseases has increased. Although they were highly successful at first, improper using led to problems, and concern is now centred on treatment failures. Moreover, it is now an expanding problem for human and animal health and for the environment. Antimicrobial compounds are persistent and can exhibit toxicity in sediments, and can therefore affect the natural microbial community near aquaculture sites (Herwig and Gray, 1997). This residue potential may disturb the balance of the environmental micro-flora. One of the major concerns with use of antibiotics (from any source) is the potential for bacteria to develop resistance to the compounds and for the resistance traits to be manifested in other bacteria including human pathogens (Guardabassi et al., 2000). Treatments may fail for 123 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo several reasons, but probably the most consistent and fundamental cause of their failure is the emergence of resistant bacteria. The risk posed to human health by disturbance of the gastrointestinal flora, selection of resistant strains and allergies is also addressed elsewhere. Quantities of antibiotics used in aquaculture are small compared to other forms of food production and published data show the use of antibiotics in aquaculture has been diminishing in some areas by regulations. Despite the low relative usage of antibiotics in aquaculture compared to other food production systems, their use remains an issue of concern as aquaculture is often practiced in relatively pristine environments and the exact quantities applied directly to water. All of the chemicals were not originally developed for aquaculture use and environmental residues have been ignored. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate the size of risk because of the lack of knowledge on the biological responses to chemical residues in receiving waters and on the concentrations in farm's surrounding environment (sea, effluents and sediments). It is also little known that fates of chemicals in the aquaculture system and the residues in cultured and wild organisms. The picture is yet more bleak for environment with regard to the interactive effects of multiple chemicals in relation to biological effects. Human health and environmental concerns regarding the use of chemicals in aquaculture are reflected in the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (FAO 1995). In this Code there are several advices, such as the promoting effective farm and fish health management practices (favouring hygienic measures and vaccines), the ensuring safe, effective and minimal use of chemicals (e.g. hormones, therapeutants, antibiotics and other disease control chemicals), regulating the use of chemical inputs in aquaculture (if they are hazardous to human health and the environment). A demonstration of an aquaculture activity from Turkey Aquaculture has been developed in Turkey rapidly. Commercial aquaculture production in marine and inland waters takes place all over the country. By 1995 there are approximately 800 fish farms (mainly producing rainbow trout) in inland waters and 400 marine fish farms (mainly seabream and seabass) in operation in the country. However, little detailed information is available on the environmental impacts of this industry. Environmental assessment strategies for aquaculture operations were developed and proven in some countries. However, the application of such strategies would be inappropriate without modification and adaptation to the ecological particularities of the environments where aquaculture operations located. Problems and antimicrobials vary from farm to farm (e.g. cultured species, diseases, different capacities of surrounding environments, climate, level of eutrophication, composition and diversity of fauna and flora) and require site-specific environmental risk assessments. Available data show that large quantities of antibiotics have been applied in the aquaculture operations in Turkey. As being reference for local intensity, the selected river basin is located in the south-western of Turkey. There are 16 trout fish farms in various capacities (totaly appr. 10.000 tonnes/year), including family farms (100 tonnes/year) and businesses (3.000 tonnes/year). Figure 1. Fish farms on Esen River in Fethiye (Turkey) 124 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Antimicrobials and disinfectants are generally used prophylactically and therapeutically in these farms; Oxytetracycline (appr. 700-800kg/year),Tribrissen (Sulphadiazine/Trimethoprim) (appr. 750 kg/year), erythromycin (appr. 400 kg/year) and the others which are used appr. 100-200 kg/year, e.g. enroflaxacin, amoxicillin, doxycyline, florfenicol and last one is formaldehyde used as a disinfectant (appr. 3500 liter/year), (Altunok, personal communication). Previously published literatures suggest that, in general, only 20-30% of antibiotics are actually taken up by fish from medicated food; thus, approximately 70-80% reaches the environment (Samuelsen, 1989). For example, the apparent oral bioavailability of oxytetracycline in rainbow trout was reported approximately 5-6% (Björklund and Bylund, 1990). Some of these chemicals and compounds have considerable adverse environmental effects, and, therefore their use in aquaculture must be carefully assessed. The fate of such compounds should be carefully addressed locally. Since the environmental impacts and risks are site-specific, environmental approach to sustainable aquaculture development requires the integration of its economic, environmental and social components at local levels towards global motion planning. 3. Sustainability criterions regarding to chemicals The limited availability of natural resources coupled with increasing demand for fishery foods the need to move forward in aquaculture to become more sustainable. Compared to other animal production systems, aquaculture is put under special pressure to become more sensitive to environment because the industry uses important natural resources (freshwater, rivers, wetlands, coastal and open ocean areas). The aquaculture industry is working towards reducing use of chemicals and other artificial substances but there is still not effective precautions and conservation plans regarding to chemical use in aquaculture for the most part of the world. Thus, it appears that global efforts are needed to promote more judicious use of chemicals in aquaculture. These efforts should focus on; -increasing the investment on aquaculture -alternative environment-friendly substances and methods of treatment, - developing of vaccines -developing welfare conditions for fish and other aquatic animals, -developing an overall management system that is widely applicable throughout the world, to monitor and control the chemicals. -using of the chemicals in a manner that does not constitute a hazard to human health and the environment and in accordance with the appropriate legislation. -legislations must be strict and include every possible usage of chemicals (e.g. antibiotics may be used on prescription from a veterinarian for the therapeutic (not prophylactic) treatment. 125 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo -the regulation of discharges. In this regard, site specific discharge conditions may include limits on the location, maximum biomass, types and quantities of chemicals due to requirement for monitoring water and sediment quality locally. - Increasing government support to encourage organic and alternative aquatic food farming. 4.CONCLUSION At present, the fish farms do not treat their effluents and discharge them to the environment increasing the environmental pollution worldwide. Pollution of water resources due to chemicals plays primary role in ecosystem degradation, but chemical analyses alone may not be sufficient to describe the adverse effects of the complex mixtures of chemicals present at contaminated sites. The potential utility of biomarkers for monitoring both environmental quality and the health of organisms inhabiting polluted ecosystems has received increasing attention during the recent years. The complexity of these issues and often the lack of data concerning their effects on aquatic environment as well as the lack of monitoring at field situations and surveillance systems, are the factors limiting the risk analysis process. In addition, the direct consequence of this lack of data is that many hazardous chemicals are not classified, and are therefore sold without appropriate labels or safety data sheets. Thus, many chemicals are used in the workplace while their potential effects on the health of workers exposed to them and on the environment are barely known, or known too late. This insufficiency of data is more pronounced in the most of countries, especially where technology and resources are limited or less available. Therefore, it is urgently needed to be determining the actual quantitative risk of aquaculture chemicals in the environment locally. Furthermore, the policy of safe and effective use of chemicals must be developed. Appropriate strategies must be chosen, according to individual requirements for country’s and region’s. Strengthening research efforts and programs for human training and development, as well as enhancing mechanisms for information exchange and technology transfer, may be encouraged through international collaboration. The development of an appropriate and effective impact assessment and monitoring system for aquatic farms is essential in order to ensure the sustainable development of aquaculture, while taking into consideration other aspects of integrated management of the areas, including tourism, fishery, other industries and environmental protection. REFERENCES Bjorklund, H. and G. Bylund. 1990. Temperature-related absorption and excretion of oxytetracycline in rainbow trout (Salmo gairdneri R.). Aquaculture 84: 363-372. Buschmann, A., Cabello, F., Young, K., Carvajal, J., Varela, D.A., Henríquez, L. 2009. Salmon aquaculture and coastal ecosystem health in Chile: Analysis of regulations, environmental impacts and bioremediation systems. Ocean & Coastal Management 52 (2009) 243–249. Costello, M. J., Grant, A., Davies, I. M., Cecchini, S., Papoutsoglou, S., Quigley, D. & Saroglia, M. 2001. The control of chemicals used in aquaculture in Europe. Journal of Applied Ichthyology 17, 173-180. FAO, 1995. Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 41pp. 126 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo FAO. 2007. The role of aquaculture in sustainable development. Thirty-fourth Session. 17-24 November 2007, C 2007/INF/16 Rome. FAO. 10 pp. FAO. 2010. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture. Rome. 197 pp. http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i1820e/i1820e.pdf Guardabassi, L., A. Dalsgaard, M. Raffatellu and J. Olsen. 2000. Increase in the prevalence of oxolinic acid resistant Acinetobacter spp. observed in a stream receiving the effluent from a freshwater trout farm following the treatment with oxolinic acid-medicated feed. Aquaculture 188: 205-218. Folke. C., N. Kautsky. 1989. The role of ecosystems for a sustainable development of aquaculture. Ambio 18: 234-243 Herwig, R.P., and J.P. Gray. 1997. Microbial response to antibacterial treatment in marine microcosms. Aquaculture 152: 139-154. Howe, G.E., L.L. Marking, T.D. Bills and T.M. Schreier. 1995. Efficacy and toxicity of formalin solutions containing paraformaldehyde for fish and egg treatments. The Progressive Fish Culturist 57: 147-152. Kümmerer, K. 2009. Antibiotics in the aquatic environment – A review – Part I. Chemosphere 75 (2009) 417–434. Naylor, R. L., Goldburg, R. J., Primavera, J. H., Kautsky, N., Beveridge, M. C. M., Clay, J., Folke, C., Lubchenco, J., Mooney, H. and Troell, M. 2000. Effect of aquaculture on world fish supplies, Nature, vol. 405, pp. 1017-24. Samuelsen, O.B. 1989. Degradation of oxytetracycline in seawater at two different temperatures and light intensities, and the persistence of oxytetracycline in the sediment from a fish farm. Aquaculture, 83, 7–16. Subasinghe, R., Soto, D. and Jia, J. 2009. Global aquaculture and its role in sustainable development. Reviews in Aquaculture, 1: 2–9 127 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Table 1 Monthly descriptive statistics and estimated parameters of length-weight relationships for both sexes of S. aurita in the Izmir Bay (central Aegean Sea) from November 2004 to October 2005. (M: male, F: female, n: number of individuals, a and b: parameters of length-weight relationships, 95% C.I of a and b: 95% confidence intervals of a and b, r2: regression coefficient). Weight characteristics TL Range Mean TL W Range Mean W (±SD) Months Sex n (cm) (±SD) (g) November 2004 M 55 19.8-23.5 21.67±1. 07 F 91 18.7-23.5 21.69±1. 16 M 119 19.0-24.0 F 129 M December January 2005 February 128 Length characteristics Relationship parameters a 95% CI of a b 95% CI of r2 b 56.43-96.72 77.62±13.9 8 0.0020 0.00190.0021 3.425 2.7034.147 0.87 4 47.80116.77 81.22±15.6 8 0.0021 0.00100.0032 3.429 2.8993.959 0.88 0 20.04±1. 16 45.46117.10 58.78±14.4 7 0.0018 0.00070.0029 3.453 3.0613.845 0.93 6 18.8-25.5 20.49±1. 56 42.84138.40 64.41±21.0 5 0.0007 0.00040.0010 3.762 3.5024.022 0.97 3 44 21.2-25.3 22.56±1. 01 72.30107.95 85.83±11.2 4 0.0500 0.00590.0941 2.389 1.9092.869 0.66 2 F 102 21.7-25.6 23.22±0. 90 102.31143.32 94.25±13.9 0 0.0023 0.00060.0040 3.380 2.9043.856 0.88 6 M 92 18.1-25.3 21.22±1. 37.15- 68.06±20.6 0.0006 0.0002- 3.777 3.327- 0.94 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo March April May June July 129 71 131.12 7 0.0010 4.227 0 F 90 18.7-24.6 21.85±1. 50 42.70123.23 73.32±19.0 3 0.0008 0.00040.0012 3.715 3.3334.097 0.95 4 M 75 21.6-23.8 22.75±0. 65 83.88119.52 94.67±10.4 6 0.0067 0.00550.0079 3.058 2.3003.816 0.69 3 F 62 22.5-25.0 23.37±0. 83 91.52132.22 102.84±12. 40 0.0083 0.00710.0095 2.989 2.1353.843 0.87 5 M 129 20.4-23.6 22.03±0. 97 62.40-94.87 77.29±11.4 7 0.0064 0.00080.0120 3.035 2.3773.693 0.83 3 F 74 21.3-24.6 22.68±1. 18 96.16112.47 89.63±14.4 6 0.0361 0.00360.0686 2.501 2.0132.989 0.62 7 M 63 22.1-24.6 23.13±0. 83 96.67129.17 106.70±9.8 3 0.1361 0.00690.2653 2.121 1.8832.359 0.68 1 F 72 21.5-25.6 23.79±1. 04 84.97150.75 121.58±16. 77 0.0060 0.00170.0103 3.130 2.6703.590 0.93 0 M 20 20.3-23.7 22.47±1. 68 62.72101.50 91.55±26.4 1 0.0073 0.00720.0074 2.789 2.3093.269 0.89 6 F 81 19.7-25.7 23.38±1. 90 64.54141.00 102.39±22. 55 0.0262 0.00580.0466 2.619 2.1273.111 0.91 7 M 136 18.1-21.1 19.59±0. 99 44.10-64.39 53.52±7.33 0.0203 0.01110.0295 2.645 2.3412.949 0.95 9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo August September October Overall 130 F 91 18.0-22.6 20.37±1. 57 41.36-80.63 60.74±14.6 3 0.0074 0.00220.0126 2.984 2.5203.448 0.95 4 M 56 15.0-26.5 20.57±3. 33 23.48165.29 73.26±41.0 5 0.0024 0.00190.0029 3.389 3.2573.521 0.99 6 F 84 14.2-28.5 24.55±3. 95 22.39205.80 140.47±57. 74 0.0044 0.00220.0066 3.215 2.8993.531 0.96 3 M 26 16.6-23.9 20.26±2. 61 30.88109.14 66.86±28.5 3 0.0016 0.00070.0025 3.517 3.1253.909 0.99 1 F 78 19.1-25.6 22.98±1. 96 53.84138.82 103.53±26. 64 0.0048 0.00230.0073 3.174 2.8423.506 0.96 6 M 106 19.6-22.0 20.75±0. 53 64.85-87.35 77.02±5.12 0.1010 0.04230.1597 2.189 1.8052.573 0.70 7 F 60 19.5-22.0 21.02±0. 58 71.71-91.73 80.06±5.88 0.0624 0.02130.1035 2.350 1.9182.782 0.79 8 M 921 15.0-26.5 21.32±1. 73 23.48165.29 77.06±21.3 6 0.0033 0.00240.0042 3.279 3.1093.449 0.87 3 F 1014 14.2-28.5 22.29±2. 08 22.39205.80 90.87±31.2 7 0.0025 0.00190.0031 3.375 3.2293.521 0.90 7 M+F 1935 14.2-28.5 21.81±1. 97 22.39205.80 84.03±27.6 7 0.0027 0.00220.0032 3.340 3.2323.448 0.89 8 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo All the LLRs values are given in Table 3. The values for coefficient of determination (r2) for all the length-length parameters of male, female and combined were ˃0.9, and highly significant (p˂0.001). LLRs were measured as TL=a+bFL, FL=a+bSL and SL=a+bTL equation in all sexes and combined. In all the samples together, LLRs are as follows: TL=-1.3284+1.2087FL, FL=1.4623+0.9581SL and SL=0.0000+0.8382TL. The results further indicated that LLRs were highly inter correlated (r2˃0.9, p˂0.01). Table 3 Length-length relationships between total length (TL), fork length (FL) and standart length (SL) of S. aurita in the Izmir Bay (central Aegean Sea) from November 2004 to October 2005 (n: number of individuals, a: intercept, b: slope, r2: regression coefficient). Sex Equation n a b r2 -1.0161 1.1915 0.984 1.1368 0.9761 0.984 SL = a + bTL 0.0000 0.8462 0.999 TL = a + bFL -1.4792 1.2168 0.975 1.6747 0.9469 0.974 SL = a + bTL 0.0000 0.8330 0.999 TL = a + bFL -1.3284 1.2087 0.980 1.4623 0.9581 0.980 0.0000 0.8382 0.999 TL = a + bFL Male Female All FL = a + bSL FL = a + bSL FL = a + bSL SL = a + bTL 921 1014 1948 REFERENCES Avşar, D., (1998). Fisheries biology and population dynamics. University of Cukurova, Faculty of Fisheries, Adana, Turkey, pp. 303 (in Turkish). Bagenal, T.B., & Tesch, F.W., (1978). Age and growth. In: Methods for assessment of fish production in fresh waters, 3 rd edn. T. Begenal (Ed.). IBP Handbook No. 3, Blackwell Science Publications, Oxford, 101-136. Binohlan, C.; Froese, R., & Pauly, D., (1998). The length-length table. In: R. Froese, D. Pauly (Editors). Fishbase 1998: Concept, Design and Data Sources. ICLARM, Manila, pp. 124. 131 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Erkoyuncu, I., (1995). Fisheries biology and population dynamics. Ondokuz Mayıs University, Faculty of Fisheries, Sinop, Turkey, pp. 265 (in Turkish). Froese, R. (2006). Cubelaw, condition factor and weight-length relationships: history, metaanalysis and recommendations. J.Appl.Ichthyol. 22, 241-253. Gonçalves, J.M.S., Bentes, L., Lino, P.G., Ribeiro, J., & Canaroo, A.V.M., (1997). Weightlength relationships for selected fish species of the small-scale demersal fisheries of the south and south and southwest coast of Portugal. Fish. Res., 30(3), 253-256. Koutrakis, E.T., & Tsikliras, A.C., (2003). Length-weight relationships of fishes from three northern Aegean estuarine systems (Greece). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 19, 258-260. Lalèyè, P.A., (2006). Length-weight and length-length relationships of fshes from the Ouémé River in Bénin(West Africa). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 22, 330-333. Moutopoulos, D.K., & Stergiou, K.I., (2002). Length-weight and length-length relationships of fish species of the Aegean Sea (Greece). J. Appl. Ichthyol. 18(3), 200-203. Pauly, D., (1993). Fishbyte section editorial. Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly, 16, pp. 26. Petrakis, G., & Stergiou, K.I., (1995). Weight-length relationships for 33 fish species in Greek waters. Fish. Res. 21, 465-469. Wootton, R.J., (1990) Ecology of teleost fishes. Chapman and Hall, London. Could government legalize illegal settlement by improving their energy efficiency? Janjusevic Jelena, Begovic Radojevic Milica, UNDP, Podgorica; Montenegro Abstract In recent months we are faced with serious budget problems in Montenegro, the solution of which, among other things is seen in reducing the number of employees in state administration. On the other hand, the costs of living are significantly above the disposable budget of households. Particular problem is the high cost of electricity, which recently 132 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1237 Title A name given to the resource Interactions between chemicals used in aquaculture and environment in terms of sustainable development Author Author Muhammet , Altunok Abstract A summary of the resource. Aquaculture that is the farming of aquatic organisms such as fish, crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic plants, is the fastest growing animal production sector in the world. Global production from aquaculture for human consumption amounted to 73 million tonnes and the value of US$ 110 billion in 2009 and comprised almost fifty percent of the world’s fish supply. Aquaculture, thus, plays an important role in global efforts towards eliminating malnutrition and brings significant health benefits by nutritional well-being. It significantly dominates most devoloping countries in terms of contribution to development by increasing gross domestic product, providing employment opportunities and improving incomes. The potentially adverse impacts of aquaculture that is also threat the sustainability when the sector grows unregulated or under poor management, is of considerable current environmental and public interest in the world. Besides eutrophication and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), the main environmental pressure associated with intensive aquaculture is chemicals (antibiotics, hormones, fungicides, pesticides, antifoulants, anaesthetics and disinfectants) used in aquaculture. The intensive systems are often associated with various greater use of different types of antibiotics and chemicals generate very different effects on the environment, mainly on water and sediment quality (nutrient and organic matter loads), natural aquatic communities (toxicity, community structure, biodiversity), and microorganisms (alteration of microbial communities, drug resistant strains). The interactions between humans, antibiotics, bacteria, fish and aquatic environments are poorly understood and recent studies show a significant pollution of surface waters with antibiotics and other chemicals which are potential risk to drinking waters. Moreover, as a vicious circle and often as well, aquaculture is also negatively affected by pollution of water supplies by other human activities (ie: agriculture and industrial activities). The environmental approach to sustainable development can control the use of chemicals to eliminate or reduce any negative effects to an acceptable level. Sustainability requires global action, and therefore an effective solution can be achieved on the basis of environmentallyfriendly management systems towards social-ecological aquaculture to integrate aquaculture, environment and society locally and globally. This paper, consequently, addresses the relevance of the environmental approach to the role of aquaculture in sustainable development. Keywords: Aquaculture, Chemicals, Antibiotics, Environment, Sustainable Development Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8a6258aa52ea36a84a452d4219ae05f0.pdf 1d79ee4ae47764a9a65d35d6b6194b8b PDF Text Text Offline Signature Recognition Using Machine Learning Mohammad Ikhsan Bin Zakaria, GunayKarli Engineering and Information Technologies, International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. E-mails: mohammad.ihsan.z@gmail.com, gkarli@ibu.edu.ba Abstract Biometric behavior can be recognized through the signature behavior of a person. It is mostly used for authorization and authentication in legal documentation papers. Signature recognition has two ways of verification, dynamic or online recognition and static or offline recognition. In this paper we use offline recognition to analyze signature images using Artificial Neural Network. We used mark minutia masking as the feature extraction. We proposed offline signature recognition using machine learning with supervised learning algorithm. The aim of using artificial neural network is to automatically find signatures that match to the owners of the signatures. Based on our evaluation, after we compared feed forward backpropagation and other supervised learning network such cascade-forward network, it revealed cascade-forward shown the highest accuracy100 % with low mean square error 0. Keywords: biometric, offline signature, machine learning 1.INTRODUCTION Offline signature recognition is the technique to prevent forgery against security issue on legal documentation papers. In many legal companies they use this system to protect their customers. The process of gathering signature image is done by taking signatures from volunteers to sign on papers for ten times and we take that signatures scan to the computer and format as 200 dpi into gray scale image format. Reducing noisy and mark minutia arethe difficult tasks here, because besides we have to keep the information of signature images as valid as we can. There are few methods that applied offline signature recognition such as signature region of interest using auto cropping [1]. The signature images will be cleaned up from unwanted space or image around signatures. In this method the authors proposed image auto cropping as it is mentioned on image normalization. In [2] they proposed offline signature recognition and verification scheme which is based on extraction of several features including one hybrid set from the input signature and compare them with the already forms. In feature extraction [2] they used Euclidean distances from vertical and horizontal sectioning of signature. In [3] they proposed offline handwritten signature recognition which is trained in low-resolution scanned signature images using learning vector quantization classifier. The accuracy rate [3] was 98% for random test set of 150 handwritten signature images of 10 1 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo persons. Offline signature recognition and verification [4] based on four speed stroke was proposed. In [4] they used stroke angle and stroke speed as feature extraction. This paper is organized into five sessions. The following is an introduction of the topic in this session 1, session 2 describes the proposed method, in session 3 describe signature image preprocessing and feature extraction, in session 4 describes implementation, results. In final session describes conclusion. 2.SIGNATURE IMAGE PREPROCESSING In this paper signature image preprocessing can be done in six steps as follows: (1) Histogram Equalization (2) Fourier Transform (3) Binarization (4) Signature Direction (5) Region of Interest (ROI) Area and (6) Thinning. Thinning image process is one most particular step in this stage, because thinning produces single layer line of signature. Minutia marking stage needs thinning before applying bifurcation skim step. Signature image preprocessing is influenced by the original which was taken using colors pen. Thinning process produces skeleton of signature which has single-pixel image. 2.1. Minutia Marking Feature Extraction During image preprocessing, we include minutia marking as our feature extraction; here the mask digit skimmed all possible digits with 1s and 0s value. We carried out minutia marking to state image bifurcation and decision or termination. In general we have 3x3 matrices, if the central pixel is one and have exactly three one-value neighbors; the central pixel is a ridge branch. If the central pixel is one and has only one-value neighbor, then the central pixel is a ridge ending [5].Using minutia detection on the binary skeleton would be performed by labeling as minutiae pixels which is cross number (CN). Some methods consider the pixels which CN >= 3 correspond to bifurcation as shown in figure 1 (a) or if CN = 2 it correspond to ridge ending[5], [6]. (a) (b) (c) Figure 1: (a) Bifurcation (b) Termination (c) Triple counting branch Figure 1 (c) describes the special case which a genuine branch is triple counted. If both uppermost pixel with value 1 and the rightmost in same 3x3 block has pixel 1, so the two pixels are marked as the braches [6]. All three figures 1 (a), 1 (b) and 1 (c) are filtered using bifurcation template. Ridge thinning signature images are filtered using this bifurcation masking. In [5] discussed about mark minutia extraction. The bifurcation template is used to cover all possible high bit 1s and eliminate 0s bit after thinning process. Basically CN for pixel P in bifurcation template is in [5] and shown in figure 2 CN is estimated using equation (1). 2 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Figure 2: Basic format CN for P (1) Where Pi is the bi-level pixel value in the neighborhood of P with Pi = 0s or 1s and P1 = P9. 3. IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS In implementation we used Artificial Neural Network supervised learning to classify signature images that are given in training and we tested to find the match of signatures and the owners. We evaluated the result in testing session. The experimental platform is the Intel dual core T3400 2.10GHz, 4 GB RAM, Windows 7 and the software is MATLAB 7.0.0.199 (R.14). On the first part of training and testing, we experimented feed-forward backpropagation and then followed by other supervised learning network such as Cascadeforward network, Elman Recurrent network and Learning vector quantization. 3.1. Proposed Method The offline signature recognition using machine learning or Artificial Neural Network as proposed method in this study is illustrated in figure 3. Figure 3: Block diagram of proposed method The first step in the proposed method deals with collecting of signatures and scanned them, the second step describes signature image preprocessing in session 2. The third step describes feature extraction, in this step we used minutia marking. The final step describes the signatures classification processing using feed-forward backpropagation, cascade-forward network, Elman recurrent network and learning vector network. One of the sample testing results for each classification neurons are plotted in figure 4. Original or genuine signatures 3 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo were collected from 30 students at International Burch University; each student gave 10 signatures samples. After converting 300 signatures into gray scale format, we divided them into 300 single signature images. The file was analyzed for neuron classification session. The following session describes ANN classification and testing results. 3.2. Feed-forward Backpropagation Network (newff) In this experiment we used feed-forward backpropagation network to calculate mean square error as the measurement for performance on the neural networks. We also consider the influence of training algorithm and transfer function which can change the approximation of recognized signatures. In figure 4 (a) shows the example of testing results. In that testing session we obtained combination of attributes such as number of inputs, hidden layers, training algorithm and transfer function. It was the highest accuracy 66.6667 % and the lowest mse 0.4286. Table 1 shows the attributes training algorithm and transfer function influenced the final result of testing. The biggernumber of hidden layers with different combination of transfer functions, the bigger time it took the machine to analyze. Moreover, number of hidden layer and combination of transfer functions tansig or logsig did not make big changes or differences for accuracy rate. The lower result of mean square error, the higher the rate of accuracy we got. However the results of neural network testing were not precisely matched but we rounded into the nearest integers. After integers are rounded and there were compared with the predicted integers or classes. Table 1 Testing on Feed-forward Backpropagation Networks 4 Input Architecture of NN Training Algorithm Transfer Function MSE Accuracy 10 10-1 traingdm logsig, purelin 0.714 3 61.9048 % 10 10-1 traingdm tansig, purelin 0.571 4 57.1429 % 10 10-1 traingdx tansig, purelin 0.571 4 57.1429 % 10 10-10-1 traingdm tansig, logsig, purelin 0.476 2 66.6667 % 10 10-10-1 traingdx tansig, logsig, purelin 0.476 2 66.6667 % 20 20-10-10-1 traingdm tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.619 0 52.3810 % 20 20-10-10-1 traingdx tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.714 3 66.6667 % �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 20 20-10-10-1 traingdm logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.619 0 52.3810 % 20 20-10-10-1 traingdx logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.428 6 66.6667 % The performance of training is influenced by number of hidden layers, training algorithm, learning methods. Generally,mseis calculated in MATLAB using logic below. In equation (2) it is just additional description of calculating mse using MATLAB. In equation (3), we used the logic to compare between target output and actual output. We calculate the integers in target output that are larger or equal to actual output and converted them into 1s. (2) ; ; (3) 3.3. Cascade-forward Network (newcf) Table 2 shows training and testing using cascade-forward networks, we calculated the mseto find the significant error during our testing. Table 2 Testing Cascade-forward Networks Input Architecture of NN Training Algorith m Transfer Function MSE Accuracy 10 10-1 trainlm logsig, purelin 0.4286 71.4286 % 10 10-1 trainlm tansig, purelin 0.4762 66.6667 % 10 10-1 trainbfg tansig, purelin 0.4286 57.1429 % 10 10-10-1 trainlm tansig, logsig, purelin 0.3810 76.1905 % 10 10-10-1 trainbfg tansig, logsig, purelin 0.5238 61.9048 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainlm tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.0952 90.4762 % 5 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 20 20-10-10-1 trainbfg tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.5238 61.9048 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainbfg logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.4762 52.3810 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainlm logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0 100 % Our attributes in table 2 are training algorithm trainlm and trainbfg, where during testing session trainbfg spent more time than trainlm to find output. In final testing we obtained 20 inputs with two hidden layers and tansig as transfer function, we got 100 % matched in accuracy rate and 0 in mse error. Thus we concluded that the lowest mse in this network produced the highest accuracy we got. However, mse does not always affect the changes of accuracy rate or neural network output. It is because the output of neurons is not always precise. As a sample of training and testing, figure 4 (b) shows testing result. Figure 4 (b) shows the testing result with mse 0.4286 and accuracy rate was 71.4286 %. 3.4. Elman Recurrent Network (newelm) The basic structure table in Elman networks is the same as previous networks in feed-forward backpropagation and cascade-forward networks as shows in table 3. Table 3 Testing on Elman Recurrent Network 6 Input Architecture of NN Training Algorithm Transfer Function MSE Accuracy 10 10-1 trainlm logsig, purelin 0.4286 57.1429 % 10 10-1 trainlm tansig, purelin 0.1429 85.7143 % 10 10-1 trainbfg tansig, purelin 0.6190 66.6667 % 10 10-10-1 trainlm tansig, logsig, purelin 0.8095 71.4286 % 10 10-10-1 trainbfg tansig, logsig, purelin 0.4286 71.4286 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainlm tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.7143 57.1429 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainbfg tansig, logsig, logsig, purelin 0.7143 42.8571 % �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 20 20-10-10-1 trainlm logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.0476 95.2381 % 20 20-10-10-1 trainbfg logsig, tansig, tansig, purelin 0.4762 95.2381 % In this experiment the lowest mse is 0.0476 and the highest accuracy is 95.2381 %. From table 3 shows that there are two highest accuracy rates but with difference mse, thus the best output is the one that has lower mse error, even though it has same accuracy and uses same inputs, hidden layer but different training algorithms. Trainlm shows the lowest mse result. As a sample of testing session in this network, figure 4 (c) shows 71.4286 % accuracy and 0.8095 mse. 3.5. Learning Vector Quantization (newlvq) In learning vector quantization, the hidden layer value has to be positive integers so it became limited for us to analyze. Relating to the classes, we provided 21 classes of signatures. We trained 105 signatures and we tested using 21 signatures. In excel file we put addition column as the name of each classes such as class 1 has five 1s, class 2 has five 2s and so on. So here we provided different kind of table which consists only training algorithm, mse and efficiency. Table 4 Training and testing newlvq No. Hidden Neurons Class Percentages Training Algorithm MSE Accuracy 10 .6 .4 learnlv2 0.4286 71.4286 % 20 .6 .4 learnlv2 0.4286 71.4286 % 10 .6 .4 learnlv1 0.4286 71.4286 % 20 .6 .4 learnlv1 0.4286 71.4286 % 10 .8 .2 learnlv2 0.4286 71.4286 % 10 .8 .2 learnlv1 0.4286 71.4286 % Table 4 (d) illustrates combination of learning algorithm, typical of classes and number of hidden neurons. The results show us, there are no significant changes during testing either 7 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo using learnlvq1 or learnlvq2 and hidden neurons. Even though, we combined all possible values. Thus learning vector quantization gave the highest accuracy 71.4286 % with 0.4286 mse. (a) (b) (c) (d) Figure 4: (a) Feed-forward backpropagation, (b) Cascade-forward, (c) Elman Recurrent (d) Learning Vector Quantization 4. CONCLUSION Based on experiments in previous chapter, we can conclude few points which related to the results. The highest accuracy in feed-forward backpropagation testing result was 66.6667 % and the lowest mse in that network was 0.4286. In cascade-forward network testing, the highest accuracy rate was 100 % and the lowest mse in that testing was 0. Moreover, when we tested Elman, the highest accuracy in that testing network was 95.2381 % and mse was 0.0476.On the other hand, learning vector quantization network has some differences in attributes. For instance, we used learnlv1 or learnlv2 as learning algorithm and compet as training algorithm, so we don’t compare this network with other three network algorithms in previous evaluation. The highest accuracy in learning vector quantization was 71.4286 % with 0.4286 mse. Thus cascade forward network was the best fit in this method, because the network produced 0 errors and 100 % accuracy with 20 inputs. REFERENCES Souvola, J. &Pietikainen, M. (2000), Adoptive document image binarization, The Journal of The Pattern Recognition Society, page 225-236. Bhuyan, M., Sarma, K. K., & Das, H. (2010). Signature Recognition and Verification using Hybrid Features and Clustered Artificial Neural Network (ANN). International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering. 8 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Khuwaja, G. A. &Laghari, M. S. (2011). Offline Handwritten Signature Recognition. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 59. Basavaraj, L. &Sudhaker Samuel, R.D. (2009). Offline-line Signature Verification and Recognition: An Approach Based on Four Speed Stroke Angle. International Journal of Recent Trends in Engineering, Vol 2. Zhao, F., & Tang, X. (2006). Preprocessing and postprocessing for skeleton-based fingerprint minutiae extraction, Pattern Recognition 40 (2007) 1270 – 1281, The Journal of Pattern Recognition Society. Zhili, W. (2002). Fingerprint Recognition. Unpublished Bachelor’s Thesis, Hong Kong Baptist University. A Case Study of Probit Model Analysis of Factors Affecting Consumption of Packed and Unpacked Milk in Turkey Meral Uzunoz1, Yasar Akcay2 1Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics, Turkey 2Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences Department of Economics, Turkey E-mails: meral.uzunoz@gop.edu.tr,yasar.akcay@gop.edu.tr Abstract This paper focused on the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk in Sivas, Turkey. The data were collected from 300 consumers by using face to face survey technique. Binary probit model has been used to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting milk consumption of households. According to empirical results, consumers with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. The majority of consumers reads the contents of packed milk and is affected by safety food in their shopping preferences. Keywords: Milk consumption, Consumer preferences, Binary probit model 9 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1142 Title A name given to the resource Offline Signature Recognition Using Machine Learning Author Author Mohammad Ikhsan, Bin Zakaria Gunay, Karli Abstract A summary of the resource. Biometric behavior can be recognized through the signature behavior of a person. It is mostly used for authorization and authentication in legal documentation papers. Signature recognition has two ways of verification, dynamic or online recognition and static or offline recognition. In this paper we use offline recognition to analyze signature images using Artificial Neural Network. We used mark minutia masking as the feature extraction. We proposed offline signature recognition using machine learning with supervised learning algorithm. The aim of using artificial neural network is to automatically find signatures that match to the owners of the signatures. Based on our evaluation, after we compared feed forward backpropagation and other supervised learning network such cascade-forward network, it revealed cascade-forward shown the highest accuracy100 % with low mean square error 0. Keywords: biometric, offline signature, machine learning Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),T Technology (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/851eccb9a7dacd493c86b0904777b66f.pdf 62dd2d83921da991bdb1407d32f3195a PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Akten, M. & Akten, S. (2011). The sustainable concept of Tourism; Example of Sarıgöl 1. Symposium of National Sarıgöl country and values, Sarıgöl. Büyükyeğen, G. (2008). Edirne city center and it’s close environment. The evaluation of recreational resource values in the context of sustainability, Zonguldak Karaelmas University Institute of scierse, Department of land scape architecture, Master’s Thesis, Bartın. Gezici, F. (1998). The Impact of tourism actions fort he purpose of sustainable regional development. A comparative research on Turkey. ITU the Institute of Science, Departmentof urban and regional planning, Istanbul. Newman, P. & Kenworhy, J. (1999). Sustainability and cities; overcoming, automobile, Dependence. Oral, S. & Şenbük, U. (1996). Structural evaluation of tourist regions in terms of sustainable tourism. 19. World Town Planning Day, Colloqium proceedings, MSU Broadcast part of the city and regional planning, Istanbul. Tozar, T. (2006). Ecological Planning methods developed for sustinability of natural Resources, Master’s Thesis, Yildiz Technical University, Institute of science, Department of Urban and regional planning, Istanbul. ACTM- Aydın Culture & Tourism Magazine, 2011, 2, 40-48 Economic Dimension Of The Environmental Policies Applied In Turkey And Its Potential Effects On Sustainable Development Mevlüt Karabiçak, Serpil Ağcakaya Abstract The purpose of the paper is to analyse the economic dimension of environmental policies still being applied in Turkey and to research the potential effects of sustainable development. In 1987 Bruntland Report was published by UN World Commission on Environment and Development and attention on sustainable development was attracted. In the aforementioned report, against the ever deteriorating environmental problems, the necessities of establishing the vital bridge between environmental development and economic development and the sustainability of development are accepted. The first precaution coming to mind for preventing environmental destructions that causes crucial costs for national economies is the efficient and productive use of current resources and the establishment of an optimal equilibrium between current and future generations in terms of the use of resources. Being sensitive in terms of the principle of sustainable development in the formation of environmental policies is accepted to be an important approach for the prevention of environment. Although the sustainable development endeavours cause significant costs, it is observed that new policies are constantly formed in terms of environment. In the scope of the paper, the potential effects of environmental policies that aim to decrease the negative effects created by the destruction of environment and to turn the world into a more habitable area on sustainable development are analysed through national and international data. 243 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.INTRODUCTION The subject of environment is the most essential and common problem of the whole world. This matter to great extend originates to excessive usage of factors. Environmental destruction particularly, during th recent years has shown the gradual increase, so that the whole living beings or lifeless creatures have been negatively effected. In one hand the necessary expenditures to be mad efor protecting the living standarts and hence, stil to raise it more and on the other hand aiming that each of these expenditures not to cause the mentioned environmental destruction. The necessity of establishing a multi directioned balances in between the production and consumption stands as a reality. This phenomenon brings forth the mutual influence of the lifeless and living beings to the present agenda and so has continiously been increasing the economical costs of the environmental protections. This point meanwhile, determines the borderlines of the environmental sciences as well. The wide pronounciation of the term environment was first met in daily languages of the communities at early 1970’s. At first glance the term environment may be considered to ben an easily understandable concept but it’s very complicated structure shows itself when carefully examined. Environmental pollution has both productional and consumptional dimensions. During the formation of these two phases, many harmful effluents gets produced and do spread around. Unacceptably high levels of such effluents and their contaminating effects getting into the air, soil and water and polluting the underground. So, all these do cause the increased environmental destruction. This destruction shows itself sometimes as like desert, drought, erosions, poverty, impropriety, negligence and irresponsibility. Environmental problems, nowadays have essentially changed its nature and have rather gained a global dimensions by passing over the national borders. Reducing the costs and relieving the negative pressures upon the sustainable developments needs a new approach towards the matter. This new approach can only be provided by international, national and regional collaborations. This study will cover how and what kind of method should be applied for avoidance of negative environmental effects but not reducing the social welfare and sustainable development what probable costs will be faced to and how these can be possibly met. 2.CONCEPTIONAL FRAME Environmental science can be accepted as a branch investigating and studying the mutual effects amoung the living beings and their surroundings and so putting up the obtained results to discussions. Ecology and the economy by some means are the concepts with in eachother. Ecology aims to utilize less of factors for protection of environment. The economy, however, is aiming for a higher level developments for higher prosperities. Henceforth, such sustainable development forms thee common denominator of the coincidence between these two concepts. The Brutland report about “our common future” defines the sustainable development as, to meet todays, requirements with out benefitting from the possibilities being planned to meet requirements of the future generations. (Gönel 2010, p.275)Another view for sustainable development is that it need to benefit from protecting the ecological processes and life supporting systems by means of obtaining a continious use of ecosystems and the genuses (Ertürk Hasan 2009, p.397) By this definition the economical development target was focused 244 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo to the point succeding on the potential economical growth whilist protecting the benefitted natural capital stock. (Dağdeviren 2003, p.143.) Sustainable development doesn’t only aims to form an environment that would be clean, safer and livable but also deals with the view that it should be more stable, healthful, prosperous and with higher living standarts, which suits well to human being. (Gönel 2010, p.285) Therefore, the borderlines of sustainable development is overapping or completing with the environmental protection standarts it is therefore possible to qualify the sustainable development as an environmental confidant. This environmental confidant development has the potential capability of going over the environmental problems and solve. This potential, along with bringing up the new growth sources as productivity can a pronovelty (newness), new markets, security and stability, effective use and optimal distrubution of these sources. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/36/10/48060835.pdf). 3.ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AND THE PROCESS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE Environmental problems are as old as the history of human being. As the use of sources started to increase along with the industrial revolution, which has caused the increased environmental destruction since then. The first signs of pollution was noticed in England. One of the pollution are as in England were rivers. England, therefore has taken actions against all kinds of river pollution forms by the law passed in 1876 (Burows 1980, p.158) The first warning about the possible global heat rise due to CO2 gas was made by Swedish scientist Svante Ahrrenius in 1898 but wasn’t recognised as a serious one. (Karbuz, 2002, p.9) The first human death disastors took place in the town of Donora (Penn) in 1948 and the other one in London in 1952 had shown the necessity to take precautions against the pollutions. (Turkman 2000, p.36) Some scientists and thinkers have expressed their views about the possible great catastrophies along with the continued environmental destructions, which all were initiated by spoiling the natural structure by human race since 1960’s. Paul Erlich’s publication in 1968 named “population bomb” and Rachel Garson’s book of “silint spring” 1962 are example of the releavant problems. In 1968 Unesco called upon a conference “UN Biosphere Conference” by which, the first steps fort he ecologically sustainable development were taken. 1972 is another turning over point on this particular activities. A meeting was held in Stockholm with 114 participant countries. (Karbuz, 2002, p.9) The most important result obtained from this conference was the common approach shown by the participating countries of different regimes and development levels fort he point of environmental responsibilities. The markedly expressed principal idea at this conference was, tol ive in an environment that would most suit too human honour and good health (Ertürk, 2009, p.234) Another important result was “Mediterrenean action plan”, along with the warnings of environmental consciousness at Stockholm conference, 16 participiant mediterrenean countries have approved the action plan to save mediterrenean sea from the pollution (Görmez 2003, p.86-87) The worlds environment and the development comission was formed in 1983 under the chairmanship of GRO Harlem, the prime minister of Norway and had published a report with the topic of “Our common future” which had created a great interest. (Uslu, 1990, p.53) ((http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission) Fallowingly, a top meeting took place in Rio de Jenerio in 11.02.1992 where, the agende 21 of this meeting had consisted of 800 pages in 40 chapters. After this conference total of 165 countries signed in 1993 the “Biological Assortment or variety” agreement. In 1994, 150 countries signed “The climatic 245 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo changes environmental agreement” which led to the formation of United nations sustainable development commission. (Gönel, 2010, p.290) In 1997, Rio +5 conference was held with rather lesser attendance and not much of sufficient progress could be achieved on the above mentioned development. Again in 1997, the Kyoto protocol was found acceptable in Kyoto and was offered to the signitures in 1998 in New York, but somehow by the delays of USA, Russia and China could become effective on Feb 15,2005. The second top meeting for sustainable development was held in Johannesburg from Aug 26 to Sept. 4, 2005. More than 100 participations from the presidential or ministerial levels along with many civil public organizations and employer representatives was achieved. (Gönel, 2010, p.291)After this meeting two basic documents came out. One was the political proclomation and the other was the implementation plan. In this meeting 5 very important decisions were taken in the fields of water projects, energy, health, agriculture, biological variations and the protection of ecosystem administrations. (Karabıçak Armağan 2004, p.212) In 2007, Lula Silva, the president of Brazil, in his speech to UN General Assembly made an offer to hold a global top meeting Rio+20 to discuss the subjects about the sustainable developments in the world. His offer was approved on Dec. 24.2009 by the UN general assembly and the date was set for June 20-22.2012. The four points to be focused in this meeting are ; (http://www.mfa.gov.tr/uluslararasi-cevre-konulari.tr.mfa -To review promises(engagements) -The new problems arouse -Struggles against poverty and the gren economy by means of sustainable development -Associational frames for sustainable development The Rio +20 UN sustainable development conference scheduled to be held in June 20-22. 2012 is actually an indication of the sensibility and the will to promote the mentioned matters. (http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20/index.html). In Turkey too, under the responsibility and coordination of the ministry of development those Project activities within the framework of Turkey’s supportive projects to the preparations for Rio+20 conference and on the subjects of fortifying the systems of protected areas of Turkey, sea and the protected seaside areas to be made easier fort he continuation. (http://www.undp.org.tr/Gozlem3.aspx?WebSayfaNo=3510). In this context a meeting was held in Ankara on Feb. 22.2012 on the sustainable development prosessing the future (http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetayHYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"&HYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"Id=520). 4.ECONOMICAL DIMENSIONS OF ENVİRONMENTAL PROTECTION POLICIES TO BE IMPLEMENTED AND IT’S RELATION TO DEVELOPMENT In the literature of economy it was admitted that human needs are ever lasting but are limited for the sources to meet these requirements. So it seems possible to meet these requirements with such sources. Therefore, the necessity for all sorts of technological and technical effectiveness taken under considerations fort he usage of natural resource. Again the mentioned effectiveness here must coincide with the effectiveness in the consumption and in the distribution of the sources. The effective and reasonable utilisation of sources carries up the prosperity to the agenda. The development of a community can olnly be by maximizing the social relief and prosperity. Promoting this social prosperity with out any reduction leads 246 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the fact that a balance must be built between the existing and future generations. In our times it is believed that this balance can only be provided with the principles of sustainable development. Basic problem of the underdeveloped countries is too crowded population and the poverty. Communities through out the history and before the industrial terms and those of industrialized communities the fact of population had the recycling effects qualitatively and quantitatively over the economy. Of course these recyclines and transformations in economy is affecting the structure of population. The volume of population is an indicator affecting upon the production, division, consumption and also gets affected itself from these facts. (Küçükkalay, Türkcan, 2008, p.89) Over population adversly affects the distribution ofi income and promoting the excessive use of sources. This situation causes the in effectiveness among the production consumption and sharing and eventually negatively effects upon the living quality. Therefore the importance of development by means of economy which basicly measures the growing problems of the countries has been dominant factor in our days. To protect the level of prosperity of developed countries and overcoming the prolonged revolving poverty of the poor countries can only be realized by sustainable developments. According to the thesis of povertytrap the reason why some countries are poor is just because they’re poor. In this povertytrap there is a steady state where per capita and per outputs are low. Therefore, whenever such a poor country intends to break this chain falls back into the same circle. (Ünsal 2007, p.179) United Nations development program is taking two indexes under consideration one is human poverty index and the other one is human development index. Human development index is the one that UNDP has produced aiming to show the development differences of the nations in international level. Such dimensions like health, education, living standarts had all been added to this index. For obtaining an index, the life expectancy at birth representing the health, the mean years of schooling represents expected years of schooling and per GNDP used for representing the living standarts. (http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistiks/hdi/ Studying datum given in Table 1 here below, the living standart gross national income per capita is 13559 USD, which is 62% high than Bosnia Herzegovina while the life expectancy at birth is 4% and expected years of schooling is 10% lower. Mean years of schooling in Bosnia is 2,2 years more than Turkey with the average of 8,7 years. Additionally human development index in Bosnia Herzegovina is 0,710 higher than Turkey. World Bank uses 1 USD/day measures to determine the level of poorness. Nowadays 1,2 billion people are living below this amount. Another measure is food energy method. By this internationally accepted method, the minimum level of calories determined but the consumption of other than foods were omitted. (Cepni 2010, p.201) Table 1. Fixed Values Used in Human Development Index Health Edication Living Standards Turkey (2010) Life Expectancy At Birth 72,7 Mean Years Of Schoolling 6,5 Espected Years Of 11,8 Schoolling Gross National İncome Per 13.359 $ Capita Human Development Index 247 0,679 Bosnia Herzegovina (2010) 75,5 8,7 13,0 8.222 $ 0,710 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Source:http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistiks/hdi;http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi/. (http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table1_reprint.pdf . / ; Economical growth has a numerical properties expressing income per capita and physical increases in production where as the economical development includes not only numerical factors but also qualitative elements. In order to mention about the development there must be an improvment in processing rules and in quality levels of foundation and establishments. (Çepni, 2010 ; p.199) Nowadays the occurances of some negative progress about the environmental protection are directing the countries and communities to behave more sensitively. Instead of the developments with in definite borders and careless use of sources such a sustainable development that would cover the coming generations was found to bee more acceptable view all over the world. Sustainable development therefore is the kind that covers the economy, environment and the communities together. Here the fundamentual problem is the excess financial burdens that sustainable development policies may cause. There are various opinions about the mentioned financial costs. Whilst the traditional approaches are rather distant on sustainability, the environmentalists are rather quite insistant. There are some views stating the possibilities of setting a harmonious acceptence between these two views. The aims of sustainable development aren’t too far from the economical development targets. Actually, the object of sustainable development is simply to look after an adjustment or harmony between the economical requests and conveying capacity of ecosystems. (Gönel, 200, p.276) If such an adjustment could be realized in all countries, then, both the global rivalry will not be adversly affected by these policies and non of the economical stability will be spoiled or destroyed. Therefore, no social prosperity decrease. To set up such a harmony definitely is diffucult but is never impossible. Minimising the environmental costs and converting the negativities to adventages forms firstly will depend upon the conversion of negative extroverts into introvert which may form during the production. Improving the sustainable living qualities, determining and implementing the methods would eradicate the negativies caused by the production and consumptional activities however what may be nede to provide this is the conformity between the targets desired to reach and the chosen instruments. (Toprak:2006, p.151); (Dağdemir:2003, p.141-155); (Çokgezen, 2007:102). Have been able to maintion about some principles for the solution of existing environmental problems within the sustainablity. These principles are; “sustainable developments”, “the polluatant pays”, “precaution”, collabration complementary high level protections, avoidance and avoidance at source. 4.1.The Principle of Sustainable Development The essential projection point of this principle is the relation of environmental problems with the economical development. Environmental effluent Have a certain recyling (revaluation) capacity, which peovides appriciable savings in the utilization of natural sources. The ecological and natural living transformation gets negatively affected when the environment receives rapid pollution over the recyling capacity. (Başol and others.2007, p.163) The additional factors like over population migration problems, unorganized urbanization, increased traffic jams, earthquakes, wars, social disorders and complications have all great additional negativity to the ones mentioned above. Nowadays civil urbanization ratio is increasing rapidly in great number of countries and the population density gets higher in bigger towns. This unbalanced distribution of population leads to infrastructural insufficiency and so to over usage of sources will end up with increased pollution. 248 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo First of all the new technologies are needed for setting a suitable environmental protection policy that would match to sustainable development principles. This can only be realized by some attentive plans or precautions. For example, millious of wehicles nowadays are moving around all round the world. Additional milllions are joining them everyday. By charging higher taxes for those vehicles harmful to the environment and lesser taxes for unharmful to the environment and lesser taxes for unharmful ones might be the collobarative support of research and development centers the minimisation of these negative effects upon the environment can reasonably be reduced. We can classify the renovations as renevals of products, processes and organisations. The first two are expressed as technological renevals. The organisational one can be taken as example to “just in time” renewal principles. Through the aid of technological renevations improved production schemes and new methods can be developed. Technological renovations, whilist making thee new products more populer, it may also become a reason fort he birth of a sector. It’s very important to select the most suitable one among the alternative technologies. Developing countries can not explore new Technologies but can obtain them through the transferances. (Kaya, 2008. p.281) but these developed countries don’t give chance to them for such transferance of new Technologies. Insufficient Technologies may have negative effects upon the environmental protection, that is why many of those underdeveloped countries become rather a field or source of poluution. The foremost duties about the sustainable developments are up to the central and local authorities. Uncontrolled, unhealthful and rapid civil urbanisation results in increased squatters shacks round the suburban areas. A great deal of sharing the benefits due to rapid urbanisation causes the destruction of historical background and sites of the town.This excess and denser growth of inhabitant areas loose their gren nature and turno ut to be a mass of concrete structures. Insufficiency of present technical and social infrastructure creates very unhealty appearence (Türkmen 2000, p.140). Local authorities should take necessary precaution mutually with central authorities, civillion social and Professional organisations to make their towns a beter place to live in. Some randomly made construction plan check ups and modifications have been creating very unlucky effects upon historical and cultural structure of the towns. Environmental and touristic sites get badly and irrevocably harmed by such wrong administrations. Traffic jam is another negative factor in sustainable developments. Thousands of people are loosing their lives and wasted in Turkey and all around the world. Better results can be obtained if the suitable correction can be made infrastructures of transportational fascilities be improved and when the proper transference of existing usable sources be realized. Earthquakes cause tremendous collapses and lose of lives all over the world. Those can save themselves may have psychological disorders. So, careful studies and calculations of the constructions and beter selection and use of good quality materials will provide strong fascilities. This will avoid the lose of many lives and sarrowness. Health is one of the indicator to emphesise the importance of sustainable development. For a helaty community a clean enviroment is firstly needed. Living in a clean, neat media does increase the quality of life. Lesser expenditures for health increases communal savings, such savings will help the development of the countries progresses and to have a prosperous life. World peace is the subject that can be benefited from to obtain best results in sustainable developments.No natural destruction can compete with the pollution may be caused by the wars. The matter of armaments and wars were always neglected to mention in the environmental literatures by which they do put forward their views by all chance about the environmental protection. Neverthless should those invested billions of dollars for armaments 249 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo be allocated to help settling peace, protecting cultural values and for an honourable human living, there would remain no poverty, hungerness and pollution all over the world. Those realistic countries, being aware of loses due to wars always stay away from supporting, feding or provking the terrorism. This takes the human being to peace and confidence. 4.2.Who Polluts Will Pay Principle Environmental cost inclusively to turn the responsibility and duty of preventing the pollution over to the pollutant by charcing the total cost of the use of natural sources. However, its not always possible to identify the pollutant. That’s why a great potion of the pollution cost are rather made paid by the public through the taxes. For instance, Turkey being an OECD member has been having maximum revenue through the taxes relevant to environment, that 4,8% GNDP of Turkey and 25% of the total income taxes weren’t set up for environmental purposes. Neverthless the ratio of expenditures fort he prevention of pollutions to GNDP, 1,1%could hardly be increased to 1,2%. (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/17/42198785.pdf, p.21) It’s rather diffucult to detect or identify the individuals causing the pollutions. There is a need for very precise good detection network. To realize such an attempt, public should be with reasonable education conscious, capable of preserving his civil rights an be dynamic ones. There should be no pressure on dense population and poverty, as otherwise the problem of hunger will exist in such a community. If the individuals are having some fear and anxiousness for their survivals, environmental problems are then nothing more than a fantastic matter for them. Therefore the subject sustainable development is definitely an ethical concept. Communities or individuals must have ethical responsibilities that not look after only fort he prosperities of their own groups but must for those who have no support and uncapable of expressing themselves. 4.3.Precaution and Prevention Principle Necessary precaoutions must be taken before making any decisions and testing for probable reactions may arise from such decisions. All precautions no matter how effective they may be won’t be sufficient once the environmental destruction occurs. 4.4.Completing and Collaboration Principles Environmental protection must be in harmony with other policies and must go for collaboration in all fields when necessary. But, reducing the globally occured pollutions it is a must to have an international colaboration. The dimensions of such international collaborations and sharing the attendances rather depends on the countries capacity in creating Technologies and their usage. 4.5.High Level Protection Principles When taking any kind of decision the authorised unit or societies must take the environmental policies under considerations. Law makers should also obey these rules as well. 4.6.Prevention at Source Principle 250 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Environmental harms must be readily prevented at source, otherwise there will be not much meaning once the damage occurs. For example, one of the most important subject of Turkey is forest fires. The main point about such fires is not to have the start of such fires because the useful flora and wildlife can nnot be reobtainable. Such fire does not only destroy the nature, but burns those inhabitants site sor villages. Billions of tl.s worthed goods get simply lost. Turkish development policies from the planning period to present times has shown a progress towards the sustainable development with in the dimensions of economy environment and community activities. In spite of the marked progresses achieved in this field, the observation and evaluations of sustainable developments have remained limited. Some small scale local studies were realized on this subject neverthless the need preparing Turkey’s national sustainable development indication set and index is stil valid. 5.SUMMARY The most essential principle in environmental protection is to provide proper utilisation of natural sources in right balance and to look after and pressure rightfull share among the generation. Therefore, it is a must to seriously accept research and developments for introducing new Technologies into the circulation. Must be precise to benefit from the recycling possibilities for effluents coming from the productions and to aim to edible sources and use the sources but not finish. Environmental and economical policies those will provide the sustainability must take over a dominant role. Excessive productions and selfishness in consumptions will never be ethical and will also maket he most reasonably applicable policies invalid about the environmental protection. The complementary policies which the international collaborations and harmony and will fallowing the effectiveness of the appropriate distrubution of the sources, productions and consumptions seems to give very meaningful results and high level protective precautions are thought to be a fruitful and will be preventive against the probable environmental problems right at the source before coming into being fort he global effectiveness of the sustainable development policies and to transfer a livable environment to the generations. An intelligance having the power and desire to live in a clean and neat surroundings snd also fighting against all sorts of pollutions in the world must build its soverignty all over the world. BIBLIOGRAPHY BAŞOL, Koray, DURMAN, Mustafa, ÖNDER, Hüseyin (2007), Doğal Kaynakların ve Çevrenin Ekonomik Analizi, Alfa Aktüel, Bursa. BURROWS, Paul (1980), The Economic Theory of Pollution Control, First MIT Press Edition Cambridge, Massachusetts. ÇEPNİ, Elif (2010), Ekonomik Göstergeler ve İstatistikler Rehberi, Seçkin Yayınevi, Ankara. ÇOKGEZEN, Jale (2007), “Avrupa Birliği Çevre Politikası ve Türkiye”, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt XXIII, Sayı 2. DAĞDEMİR, Özcan (2003), Çevre Sorunlarına Ekonomik Yaklaşımlar ve Optimal Politika Arayışları, Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara, Kasım. DOĞANER GÖNEL, Feride (2010), Kalkınma Ekonomisi, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara. ERTÜRK, Hasan (2009), Çevre Bilimleri, Ekin Basım Yayın Dağıtım, Bursa. 251 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo GÖRMEZ, Kemal (2003), Çevre Sorunları ve Türkiye, Gazi Kitabevi, Ankara. KARABIÇAK, Mevlüt, ARMAĞAN, Ramazan (2004), “Çevre Sorunlarının Ortaya Çıkış Süreci, Çevre Yönetiminin Temelleri ve Ekonomik Etkileri”, SDÜ İİBF Dergisi, C.9, S.2. KARBUZ, Sohbet (2002), “Sürdürülebilir Kalkınmanın Zaman Yolculuğu (Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Johannesburg Zirvesi)”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı 198, Eylül. KAYA, A.Ayşen (2008), “Uygun Teknoloji Seçimi ve Kalkınma”, Kalkınma Ekonomisi Seçme Konular, Editörler: Sami Taban ve Muhsin Kar, Ekin Basım Yayın Dağıtım, Ankara.. KÜÇÜKKALAY, A.Mesud, TÜRKCAN, Kemal (2008), “Nüfus ve Kalkınma”, Kalkınma Ekonomisi Seçme Konular, Editörler: Sami Taban ve Muhsin Kar, Ekin Basım Yayın Dağıtım, Ankara. TOPRAK, Düriye (2006), “Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Çerçevesinde Çevre Politikaları ve Mali Araçlar”, SDÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Yıl:2, Sayı:4. TÜRKMAN, Ayşen (2000), Yaşanabilir Bir Çevre İçin, Dokuz Eylül Yayınları, İzmir. USLU, Orhan (1990), Sanayileşme ve Kentleşmenin Getirdiği Çevre Sorunları, Sürekli ve Dengeli Kalkınma Açısından Bir Tartışma”, Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Konferansı, Türkiye Çevre Sorunları Vakfı, Önder Matbaa, Ankara. ÜNSAL, Erdal M. (2007), İktisadi Büyüme, İmaj Yayınları, Ankara. http://www.mfa.gov.tr/uluslararasi-cevre-konulari.tr.mfa. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/36/10/48060835.pdf. http://www.undp.org.tr/Gozlem3.aspx?WebSayfaNo=3510. http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20/index.html. http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetayHYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"&HYPERLINK "http://www.csb.gov.tr/gm/tau/index.php?Sayfa=haberlerdetay&Id=520"Id=520. http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistiks/hdi/. http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table1_reprint.pdf. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/17/42198785.pdf . 252 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1330 Title A name given to the resource Economic Dimension Of The Environmental Policies Applied In Turkey And Its Potential Effects On Sustainable Development Author Author Mevlüt , Karabiçak Abstract A summary of the resource. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the economic dimension of environmental policies still being applied in Turkey and to research the potential effects of sustainable development. In 1987 Bruntland Report was published by UN World Commission on Environment and Development and attention on sustainable development was attracted. In the aforementioned report, against the ever deteriorating environmental problems, the necessities of establishing the vital bridge between environmental development and economic development and the sustainability of development are accepted. The first precaution coming to mind for preventing environmental destructions that causes crucial costs for national economies is the efficient and productive use of current resources and the establishment of an optimal equilibrium between current and future generations in terms of the use of resources. Being sensitive in terms of the principle of sustainable development in the formation of environmental policies is accepted to be an important approach for the prevention of environment. Although the sustainable development endeavours cause significant costs, it is observed that new policies are constantly formed in terms of environment. In the scope of the paper, the potential effects of environmental policies that aim to decrease the negative effects created by the destruction of environment and to turn the world into a more habitable area on sustainable development are analysed through national and international data Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/268c626d6447e8cf4590d673c25533b7.pdf 1d9740307dd31ee49a7fe54fef5a0041 PDF Text Text BİNGÖL, M., (2006), İşletmelerde Bilişim Teknolojileri ve Yenilikçilik, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Erzurum. BAŞARAN, F., GERAY, H., (2005), İletişim Ağlarının Ekonomisi: Telekomünikasyon, Kitle İletişimi, Yazılım ve İnternet, Siyasal Kitabevi, Ankara. Obstacles in collaborative consumption websites’ development: A case from Bosna and Herzegovina Merima Bejtagic-Makic1 , Suncica Hadzidedic2 International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina Sarajevo School of Science and Technology, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mails: merima.bejtagich@gmail.com, suncica.hadzidedic@ssst.edu.ba Abstract According to Rachel Botsman, a renowned social innovator, the 21st century will be characterized by collaborative consumption. It is a new mode of business backed up by network technologies and based on the ancient methods of trading by bartering and swapping. Collaborative consumption websites engage and specialize in information, service and goods sharing, swapping, renting, lending, and trading. The power of these new marketplaces is in changing the way people view ownership and consumption, alleviating the hardship of economic recession, freeing the flow of knowledge and information, and creating a business model which supports the reuse of goods and space for a greener world. The content of this research paper provides an understanding of the drivers for collaborative consumption technology in a developing country in economic recession time, precisely Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The key research question to be addressed in this study is: What are the issues faced in B&H when embarking on a collaborative consumption website development project? Keywords: collaborative consumption (CC), swapping, website development, green technologies, emerging technology issues, system requirements, case study, empirical approach, collaborative technologies 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Collaborative Consumption Global economic crisis, environmental issues, social and economic inequality, hyper production have lead to assets such as skills, time, goods, services, land, gardens, and "stuff" to be in a state of "idle capacity" i.e. under-utilization. Therefore, this created a need for an alternative way of obtaining goods and services which is through collaboration consumption. 588 �“Collaborative consumption” is a return to the beginnings of human society, which is based on swapping and renting goods and services. If the 20th century was defined by hyper consumption and is a growing culture and economy, the 21st century will be defined by collaborative consumption, according to Rachel Botsman speaking at Wired 2011 in October 21. Botsman, R. and Rogers, R. (2010) in their book ‘What’s Mine is Yours’ state that "The collaboration at the heart of Collaborative Consumption may be local and face-to-face, or it may use the Internet to connect, combine, form groups, and find something or someone to create "many to many" peer-to-peer interactions. Simply put, people are sharing again with their community - be it an office, a neighborhood, an apartment building, a school, or a Facebook network. But the sharing and collaboration are happening in ways and at a scale never before possible, creating a culture and economy of ‘What's Mine is Yours’”. 1.2 Research Objectives The objective of the here proposed research is: To provide an understanding of the drivers, and barriers, for collaborative consumption technology in a developing country in economic recession time, precisely Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). Specifically, the key research aim is to explore the issues faced in B&H when embarking on a collaborative consumption website development project. The research is based on experience from an actual CC website development project. Using a case study approach, the paper addresses the following sub-questions: R1: Do B&H website design and development companies have the capacity to engage on and deliver a CC website development project for a specified price and time? R2: What are the problems, i.e. obstacles, faced in the actual process of development of such a website in B&H? R3: What solutions can be suggested to the problems in order to accomplish successful implementation of CC website in B&H? 2. REVIEW OF COLLABORATIVE CONSUMPTION WEBSITES 2.1 Functionalities of CC Websites CC websites are distinguished from other websites on the Internet in its user friendly design and picturesque demonstrations with less writing. They use colors such as blue, green and some light versions of grey, brown and yellow. Most CC websites contain the following functions: ‘How it works’ – a link usually known as About Us which shortly describes the services offered on the website, “Item catalogue” - goods and services are divided into categories which make it easier for users to search, “Search button” along with advanced search to help users get to what they want efficiently and effectively, “personal list” of items offered and items wanted, “message exchange” for creating an offer and exchanging personal messages, member review, security measures encompassing a privacy policy and terms of use, and detailed membership application form. Majority of collaborative consumption websites exhibit a focus on one type of collaborative transaction – swapping, renting, borrowing, or sharing, and moreover focus on a specific group of categories. 589 �2.2 Existing CC Websites In this section, successful collaborative consumption websites around the world are introduced: 2.2.1 Airbnb: is an online global and travel network of accommodations offered by locals for rent. In 2011 Airbnb was awarded ‘The best website’ prize by the Guardian. 2.2.2 Taskrabbit.com: is an online and mobile service networking marketplace. It is a virtual neighborhood called a "Service Networking”. It allows you to post a task you need to get done and gets you in touch with friendly, reliable people who will do it for you for a small fee. 2.2.3 swap.com: is leading the global swap movement both online and in communities across all categories. 2.2.3 whipcar.com: allows a car owner to rent out their car for a certain fee to an approved driver with spare car time, when the car owner is not using it. 2.2.4 landshare.net: Landshare brings together people who have a passion for home-grown food, connecting those who have land to share with those who need land for cultivating food. 2.2.5 pik.ba: it is the Bosnian version of e-bay, and the first Bosnian website for buying and selling which aims at connecting the buyers and sellers in one place. It also includes options for renting and swapping the products available. 2.2.6 ekupon.ba: is a pioneer groupon website in B&H which features a daily deal on the best stuff to do, see, eat, and buy on 50%-90% discount and this way attracts a lot of people to buy that same product or service. 2.2.7 tajpi.ba: is a community based website where people ask questins and get answers from the members. This way they share information and collaborate by exchanging their knowledge, experiences and advice in their field. 3. METHODOLOGY The CC website development process described and explored in the here presented retrospective case study was a project started in February 2011 by the authors. The project was divided into six SDLC (System Development Life Cycle) phases: analysis, design, implementation/development, testing, installation/deployment and maintenance. The first month of the project was spent on planning the schedule for website development, evaluating the cost, and analyzing website requirements. Requirements’ gathering was conducted through the evaluation of existing collaborative consumption websites. Design of the website’s home page, as adjusted to the common trend by CC websites, was to present a user with an instructional video, registration and log in buttons, list of categories in the form of pictures, application for a newsletter, and advertisements. CC functions of the website which were to enable users to swap and rent items were specified into: registration form, log in, member account information, adding new items, message exchange for website users, member review upon offer acceptance, overview of items a member is offering and those they are seeking, automatic matching of items, separate overview of items rented, upgrading member’s status to premium member for a fee. Upon completion of the analysis phase it was concluded the optimal choice for website design and development was outsourcing. 590 �3.1 Addressing Research Sub-question R1 After initial research on the companies offering web design and website development, the following selection criteria was developed: cost of the service, time required to complete the project, communication – availability to meet in person and discuss requirements, references and portfolio – prior experience on similar projects, resources – availability of in-house team of developers, and bonus offers - suggestions for marketing, SEO, hosting offers, domain registration, affiliate marketing, etc. Requests for proposal were sent to five BH companies (denoted as C), one local freelancer, and also posted on freelancer.com. Table 1. represents their offers for each of the selection criteria. Table 1: Criteria used for website developer’s selection Criterion C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 BH freelancer freelancer .com Cost Average Low Average High Average Low Low Duration Average Average Average Long NS/NA Long Short Communic. In-person Online In-person In-person In-person In-person Online References Few Many Many Average Many Few Average Resources None Team Team Team Team 1 person 1 person Bonus offers None None Domain, affiliate marketing None NS/NA None None (Note: NS/NA – not specified or the company did not answer to the RFP) C3 (from now on mentioned in the text as the Developer) was chosen as the company to provide the website design and development. Reasons for the choice were that it was a company with several years of experience, with a fully functional team of designers and developers, who have presented to project owners their work on previous large projects, and were able to offer additional services, including full reliance on them for maintenance, hosting packages and affiliate marketing. 3.1.1 Project Schedule and Budgeting In the agreement with the Developer, the remaining phases of the SDLC were specified (Table 2). The duration of Design, Development and Testing phases for the project was 4 months - starting end of May 2011, ending beginning of October 2011. Website deployment was supposed to occur by the second week of October, to coincide it with the start of a new academic year at B&H universities. 591 �Table 2: Project’s work breakdown and schedule SDLC Phase Analysis Design Development Testing Deployment Tasks Project cost agreement Task scheduling Requirements clarification and detailing Website design Categories’ icons design Logo design Swap and rent modules Domain registration Software testing (throughout development by Developer) End-user testing Hosting package Making website available for public use Affiliate marketing, social networks’ ads Duration end of May – middle of June (15 days) middle of June – middle of July (1 month) middle of July – end of September (2.5 months) end of September (1 week) beginning of October (15 days) Total cost of the website was partitioned on individual website functions, i.e. modules. The payment method agreed upon was monthly installments. 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Project’s design phase kick-off date was end of May. Two meetings were held between project’s owners and the Developer’s designer to specify website design - webpage elements, colors, and text position. After three unsatisfactory solutions for home page design, final design was offered and accepted middle of July. A week into the development phase indications of project delay arose. The Developer notified that while there will be some work on the project in August, they have incurred other obligations which were more urgent for them. Till the end of July, three modules were completed. A module which followed was Adding Items (creating items and categories). The creation of this module extended to the whole month of August. Lack of communication during that period, private obligations from the owners’ side, the month of Ramadan, not organizing performance tracking meetings, and neglecting the work on this project from the Developer’s side, caused key changes and iterations in the development of this module. Beginning of September, a meeting was finally arranged to clarify requirements, go over business logic behind each of the functionalities, and discuss about corrections to user interfaces. Only a month remaining till the end of the development phase, the major modules for making the website operational were not even started. Nevertheless, project owners were assured the delivery date would be met. Due to the fact that only one month was left till the deadline, tension was high at both ends. It was agreed that end of September was the final deadline to start testing the existing modules. Testing had not been carried out at all from the owner’s side, given that the approach chosen by the Developer was waterfall SDLC approach; in this methodology one SDLC phase has to be completed in order to move into the next. 592 �The first end-user testing efforts caused emergence of ever more serious issues. It was evident project deadline was going to be broken. 4.1 Addressing Research Sub-question R2 End-users tested usability and functionality of the website in a scenario where it was assumed this website was present and available for use in B&H online market. Based on the results of end-user testing, it was determined the website was not ready to be put online for use. The development phase had to be extended. The problem was exacerbated when the testing process caused an unintentional change of the approach to website development. The Developer tried to hang on to the waterfall approach they found the most familiar. The owners adopted a practice of weekly testing efforts to keep track of the development progress, thus pushing towards a more rapid and agile, development approach. As a result, the Developer was simultaneously requested to complete the remaining modules, and they were provided a list of changes that needed to be made to the existing modules. Quality of delivered functions decreased, delivery dates were prolonged, and respect in communication on both sides was deteriorating. The diversion of approaches taken by the two sides caused the Developer to enter into multiple loops to complete the ever growing changes to the already existing modules, while never starting to work on new modules. In the meantime, internal changes and fractions happened in the Developer company, which reduced the development team to two persons. In addition, they were forced to delegate resources to other projects they were accepting. This resulted in only one person working partially on the CC website development project. Two months after the initial project deadline, both sides were bitter, distrustful and stressed out. The owners felt the Developer was not competent and did not put interest nor invest time into this particular project; on the other hand the Developer felt they were stretched to multiple sides, had company issues to deal with, the project was outgrowing itself and the actual costs were by far exceeding the initial price set. Communication plummeted, to the point where replies on both sides were either rude or not given at all. The situation culminated when beginning of December the Developer came with the suggestion to terminate the work on this project. A new deadline was set - 15 days from the meeting date in order to finish the the most essential functionalities. Despite the agreement, communication was again dissatisfactory, work lagged or was not being carried out according to specifications, and the deadline itself was again breached. It was finally obvious that no serious business could tolerate more delays. The Developer provided the following options for the project:    Option 1 – continue working with the same Developer till the project is completed Option 2 – owners keep the functionalities and design completed till that point (without the right to source code), and the Developer keeps the money paid till that point Option 3 – terminate the relationship, in which situation the Developer would keep the source code and design without the right to present or sell it to someone else, but would return the owners the money paid till that moment Option 1 was unacceptable to both sides. Option 2 was not the best for the owners since it would take a new programmer much longer to understand the code written by someone else 593 �than to write it from scratch. Therefore, Option 3 was chosen by the owners as the only solution. 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Implementing collaborative consumption technology in a small developing country, like Bosnia and Herzegovina, opens multiple possibilities. Several websites of collaborative nature already exist in BH, but the website which was to be built in the studied project was to abide to the true principles of collaborative consumption. In conclusion, let us outline the key sources of the project’s failure:           Client not taken seriously Unclear and not detailed system requirements Misunderstood system requirements Too much freedom handed over to developers – trust in their expertise Lack or improper communication between owners and developers Lack of periodic and constant activity progress check-up Insufficient resources planned for the project by developers Selection of an inappropriate system development approach Loss of motivation and resulting decrease in quality of work performed Project outgrowing itself, thus planned time and price In future work on this topic, what remains is answering the research sub-question R3. Valuable lessons were learned from embarking on this project and problems faced on it. In the next phase of this study, the CC project will be continued with applying the recommended and learned practices of website development, including: clear and thorough requirements specification, agile development methodology adoption (Bauer 2005, Dave 2011), frequent testing and continuous, regular activities tracking. REFERENCES Bauer, M. (2005) Successful web development http://www.sitepoint.com/successful-development/ methodologies article, URL Botsman, R. (2012) What’s Mine is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption. 2012. URL http://www.collaborativeconsumption.com. Botsman, R. and Rogers, R. “ What's Mine Is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption” Happer Collins, NY Dave, R. (2011) Web development methodologies: Agile vs. Waterfall, URL http://www.cmswire.com/cms/web-cms/web-development-methodologies-agile-vs-waterfall012266.php Ideas for modern living: collaborative consumption | Life and style | The Observer . 2012. URL: http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2011/jan/30/ideas-modern-living-collaborativeconsumption. 594 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1215 Title A name given to the resource Obstacles in collaborative consumption websites’ development: A case from Bosna and Herzegovina Author Author Merima, Bejtagic-Makic Abstract A summary of the resource. According to Rachel Botsman, a renowned social innovator, the 21st century will be characterized by collaborative consumption. It is a new mode of business backed up by network technologies and based on the ancient methods of trading by bartering and swapping. Collaborative consumption websites engage and specialize in information, service and goods sharing, swapping, renting, lending, and trading. The power of these new marketplaces is in changing the way people view ownership and consumption, alleviating the hardship of economic recession, freeing the flow of knowledge and information, and creating a business model which supports the reuse of goods and space for a greener world. The content of this research paper provides an understanding of the drivers for collaborative consumption technology in a developing country in economic recession time, precisely Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The key research question to be addressed in this study is: What are the issues faced in B&H when embarking on a collaborative consumption website development project? Keywords: collaborative consumption (CC), swapping, website development, green technologies, emerging technology issues, system requirements, case study, empirical approach, collaborative technologies Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),T Technology (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/5ed8914bb78299c8ff6b4a034c55c318.pdf 499396ad95f89d914b5a182ab6afb0aa PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Khuwaja, G. A. &Laghari, M. S. (2011). Offline Handwritten Signature Recognition. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 59. Basavaraj, L. &Sudhaker Samuel, R.D. (2009). Offline-line Signature Verification and Recognition: An Approach Based on Four Speed Stroke Angle. International Journal of Recent Trends in Engineering, Vol 2. Zhao, F., & Tang, X. (2006). Preprocessing and postprocessing for skeleton-based fingerprint minutiae extraction, Pattern Recognition 40 (2007) 1270 – 1281, The Journal of Pattern Recognition Society. Zhili, W. (2002). Fingerprint Recognition. Unpublished Bachelor’s Thesis, Hong Kong Baptist University. A Case Study of Probit Model Analysis of Factors Affecting Consumption of Packed and Unpacked Milk in Turkey Meral Uzunoz1, Yasar Akcay2 1Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics, Turkey 2Gaziosmanpasa University Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences Department of Economics, Turkey E-mails: meral.uzunoz@gop.edu.tr,yasar.akcay@gop.edu.tr Abstract This paper focused on the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk in Sivas, Turkey. The data were collected from 300 consumers by using face to face survey technique. Binary probit model has been used to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting milk consumption of households. According to empirical results, consumers with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. The majority of consumers reads the contents of packed milk and is affected by safety food in their shopping preferences. Keywords: Milk consumption, Consumer preferences, Binary probit model 9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1.INTRODUCTION Milk is a unique food item that needs to be available in the market without any shortage since it plays a key role in infant feeding and alleviating nutritional poverty in all other age groups. It has been perceived by consumers as an important source of nutrients, especially calcium for good bone and teeth health (Alwis et al. 2009). Therefore, it is advisable to consume an adequate amount of milk and milk products for healthy lifestyle (Hatirli et al. 2004). Increasing population and income, together with the growing popularity of dairy products, particularly among developing country consumers is a key factor behind strong demand in the medium term. Demand continues to be encouraged by the growing influence of retail chains and multinational companies in these countries, which is facilitating improved consumer access to dairy products. The demand for milk and dairy products is expected to remain particularly strong in important developing dairy markets such as North Africa, the Middle East and East Asia, but also in more mature markets such as those in the European Union, the United States and Russia. The rate of growth and per capita consumption of milk and milk products remains significantly different among regions. LDC (Least Developed Countries) consume less than 50 kg per person per year on average, compared with 100 kg per person for developing countries, while the developed regions of North America and Europe consume well in excess of 200 kg per person (in milk equivalent). Such a per capita consumption disparity represents an investment potential and future opportunities for both the domestic and global dairy sectors (OECD/FAO 2011). However, per capita milk consumption in Turkey is low by any comparison due to Turkish people’s consumption patterns, income levels and nutritional habits. Turkey is far behind the European countries and the world in milk consumption (Pazarlioglu et al. 2007). In Turkey, annual per capita milk consumption is 26 lt (WMDA 2011). Per capita milk consumption are 66,9 lt in EU, 90.0 lt in USA, 91.5 lt in Canada, 108.14 lt in Austria, 78.2 lt in New Zeland, 87.2 lt in Russia, 97.0 kg in Sweden, 80.1 lt in Ukrain (AEPDI 2011). Milk is consumed as unpacked fluid milk and packed fluid milk in Turkey. Unpacked fluid milk, also called street milk in Turkey, refers to milk that is produced at farms without any control and packed fluid milk refers to milk produced under fluid milk technology such as pastorization or UHT. Respective shares of milk processing plants in total milk consumption of Turkey are 27% modern dairy factories, 33% for medium sized establishments and dairies, 20% for uncontrolled producers, 20% for producers’ self consumption (Pazarlioglu et al. 2007). The main goal of this study was to determine the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk. 2. DATA AND METHODS 2.1. Data The data was obtained by direct interviewing the individual households of 300 residences who live in Sivas province. The survey was conducted in June 2009. The sample size was determined using the Possibility-Sampling Method (Yamane 2001). 10 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo n ( Nt 2 . p.q) (d 2 N  t 2 . p.q) where N is the number of households in Sivas province (63153) (TURKSTAT 2009), t is z number is the required confidence interval (for 95 percent confidence interval t = 1.96), p is possibility for an event to occur (the rate of consuming packed milk, 0.5), q is the possibility for an event not to occurring (the rate of not consuming packed milk, 0.5), d is acceptable error rate during sampling (0.0564). 2.2. Methods The probit model is a statistical probability model with two categories in the dependent variable (Liao, 1994). Probit analysis is based on the cumulative normal probability distribution. The binary dependent variable, y, takes on the values of zero and one (Aldrich and Nelson 1984). Binary probit model was employed to the survey data to see the effects of socio-economic and demographic variables on the consumer purchase decision of packed and unpacked milk. In the binary probit model, packed milk preference (PACKMILKPREF) was taken as 1, while unpacked milk as 0. It is assumed that the ith household obtains maximum utility it has packed milk preference rather than unpacked one. The probability pi of choosing any alternative over not choosing it can be expressed as in equation (1), where ɸ variable (Greene 2011). Y i pi= prob   t2  1 X    xi (2 ) 1 / 2 exp    2  dt  ( xi   )  (1) The relationship between a specific variable and the outcome of the probability is interpreted by means of the marginal effect, which account for the partial change in the probability. The marginal effect associated with continuous explanatory variables Xk on the probability P(yi=1|X), holding the other variables constant, can be derived as equation 2 (Greene 2011); pi    ( xi  )  k xik (2) where  represents the probability density function of a standard normal variable. The marginal effect on dummy variables should be estimated differently from continuous variables. Discrete changes in the predicted probabilities constitute an alternative to the marginal effect when evaluating the influence of a dummy variable. Such an effect can be derived from equation 3 (Greene 2011).   ( x , d  1)  ( x , d  0) (3) The definition belong to variables are defined in Table 1. In the study, the variables considered affecting choices of households between preference alternatives are: gender (GEN), age (AGE), education (EDU), professional status (PS), marital status (MS), household size (HS), income (INC), milk consumption (MILKCON), milk price (MILKPRI), 11 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo reason of milk preference (PREFREA) and place of milk buying (MILKPLACE). In earlier studies (Hill and Lynchehaun, 2002; Fuller et al., 2004; Hatirli et al., 2004; Vandermersch and Mathijs, 2004; Peng et al., 2006; Pazarlioglu et al., 2007; Celik et al., 2006; Akbay and Tiryaki, 2008; Alviola and Capps. 2009; Kilic et al., 2009; Tiryaki and Akbay, 2010) properties such as household size, gender, age, education, professional status, marital status, household income, ethnicity, and advertising were studied as exogenous variables. Table 1. Definition of Variables Variables Defination MILKPRE (Milk preference) 1= Packed milk; 0= Unpacked milk GEN (gender) 1= Male; 0= Female AGE (age) 0= 18-25; 1= 26-35; 2= 36-44; 3= 45 or older EDU (Education) 0= Illiterate and primary school graduates; 1= Secondary school graduates; 2= High school graduates; 3= University graduate; 4= Post graduates PS (Professional Status) 1= Employee; 2= Labourer; 3= Self employed; 4= Offprofession; 5= Retired MS (Marital Status) 0= Married; 1= Single; 2= Divorced HS (Household Size) Average household (People/Family) INC (Income) Average monthly (TL/Month/Household) household MILKCON (Milk Consumption) Average monthly (kg/Month/Household) milk MILKPRI (Milk Price) Packed milk price (TL/kg), unpacked milk price (TL/kg) PREFREA Preference) (Reason of size. Number of People income; consumption Milk 0= Price; 1= Trade mark; 2= Taste; 3= Natural, organic 4= hygiene, package MILKPLACE (Place of Milk Buying) 1= home delivery 2= selling point 3= supermarket 4= handsellers 5= local bazaar 6= buying from village In this study, in order to determine the most appropriate model the variables described above, it was made various model experiments and was tested whether statistically significant at 1% significance level or not. As a result, three estimators (EDU, INC, MPRICE) in the probit model were found statistically significant at 1% level. Final model is below; 12 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo MILKPREi = β0 + β1EDUi + β2INCi + β3MILKPRIi + εi 3. RESULTS The male respondents constitute 64.34% of total respondents while female respondents constitute 35,66 % of it. Average age was 38.04. Educational attainment was classified into five categories, illiterate and primary school graduates (14.33%), secondary school graduates (8.33%), high school graduates (39.67%), university graduate (36.67%) and post graduates (2.00%). Average household size was found to be 3,95 people that is lower than the average household size (4.50 people) of Turkey (TURKSTAT 2011). Households earning less than $349 constituted 10 percent of total respondents, households earning between $350 and $1050 (49 percent) and households earning higher than $1051 (41 percent). The survey results illustrate that average annual income of households was found $8003 that was lower than the annual income per capita ($8215) of Turkey (UN 2011). In Sivas, per capita average annual milk consumption is 39.96 kg per capita whereas it is 26 kg in Turkey (WMDA 2011; 8). 71.3% of households preferred packed milk while 28.7% unpacked milk. 41.86% of illiterate and primary school graduates and 82.30% of university graduates consume packed milk. While 73.33% of consumer in low income group consume unpacked milk, 90.24% of consumer in high income group consume packed. 39.54% of households preferred unpacked milk as a priority because of cheaper than packed milk. The most important reasons were quality (28,64%) and hygiene (28.64%) for packed milk choice of consumers. Respondent consumed unpacked milk provided by home delivery (62.79%) and buying from village (16.28%). Households consumed packed milk preferred supermarket (89.09%) and selling point (10.91%). According to the results, consumers made a point of sell-by date (44.09%), taste (36.82%) and brand (9.09%) for packed milk. Table 2 presents results estimated from binary probit model. The model is significant at 1% level of probability. The estimated coefficients and standard errors reveal which factor influence respondents consumption intentions for fresh milk consumption. A statistically significant coefficient suggests that the likelihood of consumption of product will increase/ decrease as the response on the explanatory variable increase/decrease (Borooah 2002). McFadden Pseudo coefficient of determination (R2) was calculated about 0.288. This value represents that variables placed in the model explain high level the probabilities of packed and unpacked milk choice of consumers. Three estimators (EDU, INC, MPRICE) in the probit model were found statistically significant at 1% level. Table 2. Estimates of the binary probit model Variable Coefficient Constant EDU -0.36167 0.29694 13 Std. Error 0.76226 0.12694 z- Statistic Probability -4.745 2.339 0.0000 0.0193 Marginal Effects -1.0164 0.0835 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo INCOME MPRICE Log-likelihood Restricted Log-L Pseudo-R2 x2 (df =11) Significance level Akaike Info Criteria 0.00057 -0.61494 -136.6527 -187.5953 0.288 105.66 0.00022 0.51561 2.548 6.110 0.0108 0.0000 0.0161 -0.0089 0.000 0.991 onsumer’s education level (EDU) was found out an important socio-economic factor for the probabilities of packed and unpacked milk choice of consumers. In estimated model, education level variable was statistically important at significant level 1% and related positively. As educational level increases, tendency to consume rises packed milk and decreases unpacked fluid milk. Educational level might be a good starting point to increase the awareness of consumers concerning fluid milk consumption (Pazarlıoglu et al. 2007). Estimated model results support to this hypothesis. According to the estimated results, household’s income level (INCOME) is one of the factors affecting their packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. This variable is included in the model because low-income families may consume more unpacked milk when milk prices are lower. There is a positive relationship between packed consumption consumers’ income level and it is statistically significant at the level of 1%. For a household with high income level, the probability of consuming packed milk decreased by only 1.6%. It would emphasize that when income level rised, packed milk consumption increased. This result is a significant and expected. Thus, households preferred unpacked milk (39.54%) as a priority because of cheaper than packed milk. When increased in income level, consumption preferences of households tend to the packed milk. It is a known fact that unpacked milk was unhygienic. Therefore, it is said that households tend to the consumption of unpacked milk because of their economic difficulties. On the other hand, milk price (MPRICE) was determined as other main factors affecting their packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. Price was the primary reason mentioned in the survey for not purchasing packed fluid milk, as it was perceived as being quite expensive compared to unpacked fluid milk. In average, Turkish consumers have been sensitive to price of foods which they consume (Kilic et al. 2009). This variable found out significant at 1% level and was related negatively. This sign indicated that consumers who were sensitive to price were less likely to consume packed milk. According to the results, implied that consumers preferred price of packed milk are expensive compared to unpacked milk were less likely to consume packed milk. When milk price increased, the probability of packed milk consumption decreased 0,9%. 4. CONCLUSIONS This study focused on the socio-demographic factors influencing milk consumption in Sivas, Turkey. The findings of this study show that consumer’s socio-economic characteristics were affected unpacked and packed milk consumption preferences. According to the results from binary probit model; education, income and milk price are significant and associated with packed and unpacked fluid milk consumption. According to empirical results, consumers 14 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. In the light of the findings, the necessary policies are needed as providing of accessibility to adequate price, healthy, safety food and a mechanism reached to the level of per capita milk consumption in developed countries. Also, on the basis of the results of this study, it would be expected seller’s and companies’ marketing strategies on packed milk by looking at specific consumer preferences. REFERENCES AEPDI (2011). Dairy Situation and Outlook: 2011-2012 (Agricultural Economics and Policy Development Institute) Publication No: 191, ISBN: 978-975-407-326-3, Ankara. Akbay, C. and Tiryaki, G.Y. (2008). Unpacked and Packed Fluid Milk Consumption Patterns and Preferences in Turkey, Agricultural Economics, 38(1), 9-20. Aldrich, J.H. and Nelson. F.D. (1984). Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications, Inc. Alviola IV,P. and Capps, O, Jr. (2009). Household Demand Analysis of Organic and Conventional Fluid Milk in the United States, Dep.of Agr. Eco.Texas A&M Uni., Res.Report. Alwis, A.E.N., Edirisinghe, J.C. and Athauda, A.M.T.P. (2009). Analysis of Factors Affecting Fresh Milk Consumption Among The Mid-Country Consumers, Tropical Agricultural Research & Extension, 12(2),101-107. Borooah, V.K. (2002). Logit and Probit: Ordered and Multinomial Models. Series Quantitative Applications in the Social Science, No 138, Tousand Okas: Sage Publications. Celik, Y., Bilgic, A., Karlı, B. and Celik, S. (2006). Factors Affecting Milk Consumption Pattern in Southern Anatolian Region: An Application of a Two-stage Econometric Model, Bodenkultur, 57(2), 57-64. FAPRI (2012). World Dairy: 2011 Agricultural Outlook, http://www.fapri.iastate.edu Fuller, F.H., Beghin, J.C. and Rozelle, S. (2004). Urban Demand for Dairy Products in China: Evidence from New Survey Data, Working Paper 04-WP 380, Iowa, USA. Greene, WH (2011). Econometric Analysis, Seventh Edition. Prentice Hall, New Jersey. Hatirli, S.A., Ozkan, B., and Aktas, A.R. (2004). Factor Affecting Fluid Milk Purchasing Sources in Turkey, Food Quality and Preference, 15(6),509-515. Kilic, O., Akbay, C. and Tiryaki, Y. (2009). Factors Affecting Packed and Unpacked Fluid Milk Consumption, Agricultural Economics– Czech, 55(11),557–563. Liao, T.F. (1994). Interpreting Probability Models: Logit, Probit, and Other Generalized Linear Models, Thousand Oaks, Sage Publications, Inc., California, USA. OECD/FAO (2011). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020, URL http://dx.doi.org Pazarlioglu, M.V., Miran, B., Ucdogruk, S. and Abay, C. (2007). Using Econometric Modelling to Predict Demand for Fluid and Farm Milk: A Case Study from Turkey, Food Quality and Preference, 18,416–424. Peng,Y., West, G.E. and Wang, C. (2006). Consumer Attitudes and Acceptance of CLAEnriched Dairy Products, Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 54(2006), 663–684. 15 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Tiryaki, G. and Akbay, C. (2010) Consumers’ Fluid Milk Consumption Behaviors in Turkey: An Application of Multinomial Logit Model, Quality and Quantity, 44,87–98. TURKSTAT (2009). Regional Statistics, URL http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr TURKSTAT (2011). Turkey’s Statistical Yearbook, 2010. Publication No: 3522, Ankara. WMDA (2011). Dairy and Products Sectoral Report, West Mediterranean Development Agency, http://baka.org.tr/uploads/1303486719SUT-URUNLERi-TURKCE-KATALOG.pdf Yamane, T. (2001). Basic Sampling Methods, Literatur Publishing, Istanbul. UN (2011). World Statistics Pocketbook. URL http://data.un.org/CountryProfile Integration And Sustainability Of Technology-Enhanced Systems Into Learning Environment: Cankiri Karatekin University Case Study Ari Murat1, Pekel Abdullah2 1Cankiri Karatekin University, Chairman of Informatics Department, Cankiri, Turkey 2Marmara University, School of Foreign Languages, Istanbul, Turkey E-mails: mari@karatekin.edu.tr, abdullah.pekel@hotmail.com Abstract As a result of the continuous search for global competitiveness through providing the society with high quality education in the light of emerging technologies, Cankiri Karatekin University has embarked on a strategic planning and a pilot study on transition to Distance Education (DE). Providing on-demand training for professional development, lifelong learning, career change aimed at quite varied groups in society, Cankiri Karatekin University sets its sight on maximizing the quality of communication and intellect sharing between academic staff as well as enabling the effective assessment of their academic performance thanks to the integrated e-learning/distance education and corporate communication platform. According to this tested project based model, distance education infrastructure and educational e-materials have been prepared and used as a supplement to formal education. By this means, ensuring students’ and teachers’ readiness is aimed for the success of the future pure distance education programs. The study evaluates the pilot project titled “Integrated Elearning and Teaching Environment” by Cankiri Karatekin University, which was founded in 2007 and strives for developing as a globally competitive academic institution by employing an effective and efficient model in the use of technology in education. The technical background features as well as results of the pilot project have been evaluated and further suggestions have been presented, considering distance education practices in the world in general and, in particular, the potential that Turkish Higher Education and Cankiri Karatekin University carry in the field. Keywords: Distance Education; e-learning; Communication; Teaching Environment 16 Life Long Learning; Institutional � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1143 Title A name given to the resource A Case Study of Probit Model Analysis of Factors Affecting Consumption of Packed and Unpacked Milk in Turkey Author Author Meral, Uzunoz Abstract A summary of the resource. This paper focused on the effects of some socio-demographic factors on the decision of the consumer to purchase packed or unpacked milk in Sivas, Turkey. The data were collected from 300 consumers by using face to face survey technique. Binary probit model has been used to analyze the socio-economic factors affecting milk consumption of households. According to empirical results, consumers with higher education and income levels tend to consume packed milk consumption. Also, milk price was affective factor packed and unpacked milk consumption behavior. The majority of consumers reads the contents of packed milk and is affected by safety food in their shopping preferences. Keywords: Milk consumption, Consumer preferences, Binary probit model Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f62d5d838f22929c8e059d7caf945c47.pdf 72ada5110bc18d0819b39fa7e6d38bb3 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Richman S., (1997), The evils of economic sanctions, http://www. fff.org/freedom/0297c.asp, (accessed on December 24, 2012) Rudy, M., and Venteicher J., (2006), Prospect Theory and economic sanctions, Midwest Political Science, pp. 9-11 Talwar, P., (2001), Iran in the balance, Foreign affairs, Vol. 80, No. 4, pp.58-71 The Economist, (2012), http://www.economist.com, (accessed on February 7, 2012) Today’s Zeman, (2010), http://www.todayszaman.com/mainAction.action, (accessed on February 7, 2012) Torbat, A. E., (2005), Impact of the US trade and Financial sanctions on Iran, The world economy, Volume 28, Issue 3, pages 407–434 Torchia, A.,(2012), Analysis: Iran economy could limp along under sanctions, Reuters, http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE8150MH20120206, pp. 1-8. Wallensteen, P.,(1968), Characteristics of Economic Sanctions, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 5, No. 3 pp. 248-267 Wall Street Journal, (2012), http://europe.wsj.com/home-page, (accessed on February 7, 2012) Risk Tolerance and Investment Preferences in Bosnia and Herzegovina Mela Hadrovic, Ugur Ergun International Burch University, Faculty of Economics, 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. E-mails: mela_hadrovic@hotmail.com, uergun@ibu.edu.ba Abstract Risk tolerance is considered as an important factor in making financial decisions, saving and investment choices. This paper has examined level of investment risk tolerance and investment preferences of B&H’s population and it had explored whether demographic and socioeconomic factors to risk tolerance and investment preferences. Using a randomly chosen sample of 200 individuals above the age of 20, empirical analysis has shown that above independent variables that are significantly affecting individual’s risk tolerance are income level, education level and gender. Regression analysis has proven that above average risk tolerance is associated with higher income level and higher education level. Moreover, analysis has supported the assumption that males are more risk tolerant then females. Regarding the investment preferences, obtained results show that the out of eight independent variables, only variable measuring whether an individual has a financial commitment is significantly negatively related to the investment. 222 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Keywords: Risk tolerance, Risk aversion, Investment preferences, demographic and socioeconomic factors, regression model, level of significance. 1. INTRODUCTION Risk tolerance is being defined as degree to which an investor is willing and able to accept the possibility of an uncertain outcome to an economic decision. This means that risk tolerance is maximum amount of uncertainty one is willing to accept when making a decision, in this case financial decision (Holton, 2004).Due to the fact that risk tolerance is major factor affecting financial decisions, numerous researches have been done to explore and define what are the factors affecting risk tolerance. These researches have been considering demographic, socioeconomic and attitudal factors as factors affecting risk tolerance and have examined factors such as gender, age, marital status, income level, education, occupation and others as determinants of individuals risk tolerance. (MacCrimmon&Wehrung, 1986; Grable & Lytton, 1998; Hallahana et al., 2004). The primary goal of the research is to analyze how risk tolerant or risk adverse are people in Bosnia and Herzegovina, to examine their investment preferences and to test what demographic and socioeconomic factors are significantly affecting level of risk tolerance and investment preferences. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, sample of date is being introduced and described and independent and dependent variables are being shortly described and analyzed. The same section also explains the methodology of the research. Section 3 presents and discusses results of the empirical analysis. Finally, Section 4 summarizes the research and presents key conclusions of the research. 2. DATA, VARIABLES AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 2.1. Data The research is based on the data gathered from the survey. 200 individual have been asked to complete 10 question survey and survey instrument contained information about respondents’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Two hundred respondents were randomly chosen and survey was performed by phone and this is why there are no missing values for any question. 2.2. Variables In the first analysis risk tolerance variable is taken as dependent variable. It represents the self-assessed level of risk tolerance each respondent has determined for himself. In the second analysis investment type is defined as dependent variable and it is taking following values for different types of investment: 1=deposit, 2=lend to someone, 3=stocks, 4=real estate, 5=mutual funds, 6=gold and silver and 7=collectibles. When considering independent variables, based on the previous research performed by Demirel and Gunay (2011) and Al-Ajmi (2008), age, marital status, education level, number of dependents, stability of income source, and whether individual has financial commitments are chosen as variables that are expected to be significantly affecting risk tolerance and 223 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo investment preferences. Independent variables and their values are being summarized in the table below. Variable Gender Measurement 1= male Variable Number of dependents 2= female Age Respondents’ age (20 Stability – 60) source of Measurement Respondents’ number of dependents income 1 = unpredictable 2= somewhat predictable 3= reasonably predictable 4= predictable 5= very predictable Marital Status 1= married Income 1= <300 KM 2= 300 – 700 2= not married 3= 700 – 1000 4= 1000 – 1500 5= 1500 – 2000 6= 2000 – 2500 7= >2500 Education 1= secondary 2= postsecondary 3= Bachelor 4= Master 5= PhD Table 1. Independent variable definitions 2.3. Statistical Analysis 224 Financial commitments 0= no loan 1= having loan �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The model used for the empirical analysis is multiple regression model that permits estimating effect on Yi of changing one variable X1i while holding the other regressors constant (Stock & Watson, 2006). Multiple regression models that are going to be estimated is as following: Yi = β0 + β1Age + β2Gender+ β3Status + β4Educ + β5Dep + β6FreqY + β7IncLev + β8Loan (1) Model developed is used for both analyses, for testing significance of independent variables in relation to either risk tolerance in first case and investment preferences in the second analysis. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1. Sample characteristics Regarding the sample characteristics, out of 200 respondents 58.5% were male and 41.5% were female. Respondents have ranged from 22 to 59 years old and approximately 70% of all respondent are in the age range from 25 to 46. Furthermore, 60.5% of respondents are married and 39.5% are not married. For the simplification of the analysis “not married” are considered all who are either single, divorced, separated, widowed, etc. (Grable & Lytton, 1999). Most of the respondents are having either secondary or bachelor degree, 45% and 39% respectively, while all other education level account only for 16%. When it comes to the number of dependent, response have ranged from 1 to 5 members and most of the respondents, about 37% of them have 4 family members. Considering income aspect, most of the respondents have either predictable or at least reasonably predictable (stable) income source, accounting for approximately 65% of all response. Data on the income level match the data provided by Federal Office of Statistics that the average salary is approximately 800 KM and survey has shown that most of the people are in the income group from 700 – 1000 KM (Federal Office of statistics) When considering dependent variables, it is evident that people in Bosnia and Herzegovina are below average risk tolerant given the fact that approximately 70% of respondent have rated their risk tolerance 5 or less then 5, on the scale from 0 to 10. The unwritten rule states that people in B&H only believe in investment in real estate and this research has proven so, 57% of all respondents have stated that they would invest in real estate, while all other six types of investment account for the 43% (deposits 20%, lending to someone 0.5%, stocks 9%, mutual fund 4.5%, gold and silver 8% and collectibles 1%). 3.1. Risk tolerance estimated model Coefficientsa Model 1 225 Unstandardized Coefficients B (Constant) 2.274 Std. Error .354 Standardized Coefficients Beta t 6.425 Sig. .000 95,0% Confidence Interval for B Lower Upper Bound Bound 1.576 2.972 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo .096 .385 .443 2 IncLev .669 (Constant) 1.733 6.949 4.499 .000 .000 .479 .973 .859 2.492 .102 .149 .399 .357 .217 3 IncLev .540 Education .476 (Constant) 1.389 5.265 3.203 3.481 .000 .002 .001 .338 .183 .602 .742 .770 2.176 IncLev .478 .103 .316 Education .519 .147 .236 Gender .793 .289 .172 a. Dependent Variable: RiskTol Table 2.I Multiple regression; coefficients 4.627 3.525 2.746 .000 .001 .007 .274 .228 .223 .682 .809 1.363 Based on the stepwise multiple regression, the final estimated model for the risk tolerance is as follows: Y = + 1.389 + 0.478IncLev + 0.519Educ + 0.793Gender (2) β0 represents the intercept and the its value in the final model is 1.389 meaning that if all independent variables are zero value of an individual’s risk tolerance will be 1.389. This can further be explained as human nature of being resistant to risk. Furthermore, although gender variable is statistically insignificant (0.07>0.05) model includes it because of significant bivariate correlation with risk tolerance. In such a situation, researcher can decide whether to include given variable in the model or not. R2 and adjusted R2 are measures that quantify the extent to which the regressors account for the variation in the dependent variable. Since R square is increasing when every next variable is added to the model, adjusted R2is better measurement of the mode fit (Stock & Watson, 2006). The estimated model has adjusted R2value of 0.253 meaning that 25.3% of the variations in the dependent variable are explained by income level, education level and gender variables. This indicates that research should be revised and improved by adding new independent variables that are potentially affecting risk tolerance and better predicting variations. Variables that could be considered for the future research could be: current economic situation in the county, economic expectations, interest rates and financial knowledge (Ribeiro, 2001; Grable & Lytton, 1999). 3.2. Investment preferences estimated model All the independent variables have been introduced in the model and by performing stepwise multiple regression the following coefficient were estimated: 226 Coefficients a �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Model Unstandardized Standardized 95,0% Confidence Interval Coefficients Coefficients for B B 1 (Constant Std. Error 3.833 .158 -.514 .208 Beta t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound 24.213 .000 3.521 4.146 -2.474 .014 -.924 -.104 ) Loan -.173 a. Dependent Variable: Investment Table 3. II Multiple regression; coefficients As shown in the table above out of eight independent variables, only variable measuring whether an individual has a financial commitment proved to be significantly affecting investment type. Y= 3.833 – 0.514Loan (3) Equation (3) shows that if all independent variables are exactly zero, value of dependent variable (investment type) will be approximately 3.833, approaching value of investment in real estate. Moreover, adjusted R2 has a value of 0.025 meaning that produced equation provides explanation for only 2.5% of variations in investment type preferred by respondents. The graph shows that most of the respondents (57%) have answered that they would invest in the real estate. 20% would make deposit in the bank, while other four investment types all together account for 30%. As in the case of risk tolerance, insignificance of independent variables suggests that further research should be performed by introducing new variables mentioned in the previous section. Conventional wisdom claims that people in B&H only believe in investment in real estate and consider it the least risky. This explains the outcome of the survey. Figure 1 Graphical representation of investment types 4. CONCLUSION In this study, model for testing significance of demographic and socioeconomic factors in determining risk tolerance and investment preferences was developed. Firstly, income level, education level and gender were proven to be significant and positively related to risk tolerance. As each of these variables increase, risk tolerance is increasing. Secondly, multiple 227 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo regression models has identified that only financial commitments are significant for determination of investment and this relation is negative, showing that if an individual has a financial commitment it investment will decrease or it will choose less risky investment. Due to the fact that both estimated models are having low adjusted R2, they are not a very good explanation of variations in dependent variables; in the future of the research new variables should be included. Until now research was mostly focused on demographic characteristics of each survey respondent, but in the future more of the socioeconomic factors characteristic for Bosnia and Herzegovina are going to be considered. In this way, current economic situation, macroeconomic data, interest rates, economic expectations and individual’s financial knowledge are going to be used as predictors of risk tolerance and investment preferences. This will improve the model, it will provide more complex and accurate explanation of what are the possible reasons why risk tolerance and investment preferences vary. However research needs improvements in the future, the overall conclusion of the is that demographic and socioeconomic factors are affecting risk tolerance and investment preference. REFERENCES Al-Ajmi, Y. J. (2008). Risk Tolerance of Individual Investors in an Emerging Market. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics.Vol. 17, pp. 15-26. Demirel, E. and Gunay, S. G. (2011).Financial Risk Taking Behavior Comparisons between Two Different Countries Based on Demographic Factors: Turkey and Macedonia Case. Middle Eastern Finance and Economics.Vol. 10, pp. 111-120. Federal Office of Statistics. Last Accessed on 4 27, 2012, from http://www.fzs.ba/ Grable, J. E.and Lytton, R. H. (1998). Investor risk tolerance: Testing the efficacy of demographics as differentiating and classifying factors. Financial Counseling and Planning, 9 (1), pp. 61-74. Grable, J. E. and Lytton, R.H. (1999).Assessing Financial Risk Tolerance: Do Demographic, Socioeconomic,And Attitudinal Factors Work?. Journal of the FRHD/FERM. Hallahana, T. A., R. W. Faffb and M. D. McKenziea, 2004. “An Empirical Investigation of Personal Financial Risk Tolerance”, Financial Services Review 13, pp. 57–78. Holton, G. A. (2004). Defining risk.Financial Analyst Journal.60 (6),pp. 19-25. MacCrimmon, K. R. and Wehrung, D. A. (1986).Taking risks.New York: The Free Press. Ribeiro, B. M. and Teixeira, J. R. (2001).An econometric analysis of private-sector investment in Brazil.Cepal.Review 74, pp. 153-166. Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (2006).Introduction to Econometrics.2nd edition, Pearson Education International 228 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1327 Title A name given to the resource Risk Tolerance and Investment Preferences in Bosnia and Herzegovina Author Author Mela , Hadrovic ERGÜN, Uğur Abstract A summary of the resource. Risk tolerance is considered as an important factor in making financial decisions, saving and investment choices. This paper has examined level of investment risk tolerance and investment preferences of B&H’s population and it had explored whether demographic and socioeconomic factors to risk tolerance and investment preferences. Using a randomly chosen sample of 200 individuals above the age of 20, empirical analysis has shown that above independent variables that are significantly affecting individual’s risk tolerance are income level, education level and gender. Regression analysis has proven that above average risk tolerance is associated with higher income level and higher education level. Moreover, analysis has supported the assumption that males are more risk tolerant then females. Regarding the investment preferences, obtained results show that the out of eight independent variables, only variable measuring whether an individual has a financial commitment is significantly negatively related to the investment. Keywords: Risk tolerance, Risk aversion, Investment preferences, demographic and socioeconomic factors, regression model, level of significance. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance