123 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/b001a4ea87f1c5fc315e4cc5c5e400e9.pdf 1d64eb3079e26547874c006d825b7a15 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Analysis Of The Hotel Personnel’s Conceptions Of Organizational Justice, Organizational Silence, Mobbing, Organizational Commitment In Terms Of Demographic Variables Şevket Yirik, Yusuf Yilmaz, Osman Nuri Demirel,Yıldırım Yilmaz, Abdullah Akgün, Hasan Kinay Akdeniz University, Turkey Abstract This study analyses the conceptions of organizational justice, organizational silence, mobbing, organizational commitment in terms of demographic variables in hotel management. Field work is carried out in the 5-star hotels that are active during 12 months in the Manavgat region of Antalya (Turkey). The study is supported by 229 hotel personnel and all responded. The study reveals that factors such as gender, age, educational level, professional rank and position have considerable effects on the conceptions of institutional devotion, mobbing, institutional repose and institutional justice. Keywords: Organizational Justice, Organizational Silence, Mobbing, Organizational Commitment 1.THEORETICAL BACKGROUND 1.1.Organizational Justice Originally, the conception of organizational justice is based on “Equity Theory” of Adams in 1965 (Baş and Şentürk, 2011: 33). Organizational justice is whether there is equity or not comparing what the employees bring in the company according to the contributions the employees made to the company (time, work, earnings). Organizational Justice is examined under three headings; distributive justice, procedural justice and personal interaction justice. (Cohen-Charash and Spector, 2001: 279; St‐Pierre and Holmes, 2010: 1171). 1.2. Organizational Silence Organizational Silence was proposed by Hirschman in 1970; however, it was first used as a definition by Morrison and Milliken in 2000 (Erenler, 2010). Organizational silence can be seen when the employees do not express their views and concerns about the company (Morrison and Milliken, 2000). The employee silence, on the other hand, can be defined as not revealing one’s feelings, not sharing with others and concealing the problems by remaining silent and keeping on working as if nothing happened. There may be many reasons why the employee prefers to remain silent. These can be stated as the behavioural habits, consciousness and decision mechanisms (Blackman and Sadler-Smith, 2009: 571-572). The institutional reasons of the organizational silence are as follows:  82 Organizational Reasons �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo                   Injustice Culture Silence Climate Organizational Culture Managerial Reasons Negative Feedback Fears of Managers Prejudices towards Work and Worker Character of the Manager Homogeneity of the Management Team Individual Reasons Lack of Confidence Considering Talking Risky Fear of Isolation Past Experiences Fear for Damaging the Relations Character and Personality National and Cultural reasons Cultural Structure and Norms Power Distance 1.3. Mobbing Latin origin word, mobbing means “psychological violence, disturbance and harassment”. The term mobbing was first suggested by Lorenz in 1960, a scientist who was observing animal behaviours (Davenport et. al., 2003: 3). In the beginning of 1980s, Leymann determined that these kind of outrageous and negative behaviours were taking place in workplaces. Although Leyman met this behaviour style in 1980s, the studies indicate that this behaviour goes far beyond (Leymann, 1996: 166). In 1983, in Norway, the mobbing that 3 teenagers were subject to ended with the suicides of these three teenagers. Hereupon, a broadened investigation was carried out by the Ministry of Education and violence and situations of the victims were revealed. Programs in the USA, England and Germany, in the 1990s, started to be applied for protecting the kids and the youth (Olweus, 1993). However, the first study in Turkey about mobbing was conducted in 2003 (Yavuz, 2007: 7). World Health Organization (WHO) defines mobbing as, attitudes and behaviours that damage physical, psychological and moral development of the individuals or groups by using power against them (Akgeyik vd., 2009: 98). The disturbing behaviours of mobbing that even ends in the resignation of the employees have risen a lot recently. 1.4. Organizational Commitment Organizational Commitment can be said to exist when the employees are willing to stay in the organization and adopt the beliefs of the company as their own and dedicate their work in accordance with company’s interests (Becker, 1960: 32). 83 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The factors effecting the organizational commitment are studied under four subtitles; factors concerning work and duty, working place and working conditions, organizational structure and demographic factors (Topaloğlu et. al., 2008: 953). Approaches of organizational commitment can be gathered under three titles; attitudinal commitment, behavioural commitment and normative commitment (Kitapçı, 2006:75). 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1. The Aim of the Study This study aims to introduce whether the perceptions of organizational justice, organizational silence, mobbing and organizational commitment of the hotel employees differ in terms of demographic variables or not. In this respect, the differences in the perceptions of organizational justice, organizational silence, mobbing and organizational commitment of the hotel employees were examined regarding their age, gender, educational background and work experience. 2.2. Sampling The universe of the study is the 5 star hotel employees in the city of Antalya. Due to the time and financial difficulties experienced in reaching the universe, random sampling was used. In this context, the sampling of this study is 229 employees of a 5 star hotel in Antalya. The questionnaire was distributed to 229 people and all was responded. No invalid questionnaire was determined while analyzing the data. 2.3. Data Collection Questionnaires were used as a means of data collection. Questionnaire was composed of 5 main parts. In the first part, Personal Information Form; in the second part, Organizational Commitment Scale; in the third part Mobbing Scale; in the fourth part Organizational Silence Scale; in the fifth part Organizational Justice Scale was used. 2.3.1. Personal Information Form Questions like gender, age, educational background, work experience, salary, position and weekly working hours were in the form in order to determine the demographics of the hotel employees. 2.3.2. Organizational Commitment Scale The Organizational Commitment Scale developed by Meyer and Allen (1991) was used. The scale had 19 items and prepared in accordance with 5 points Likert Scale ( 1= Absolutely disagree, 5= Absolutely agree). Since the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 13 the items of the scale include negative statements, they were coded with reverse coding method. Thus, it was stated that the higher the score from the scale is, the more the commitment of the employee has. The 84 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo reliability of the scale was high in many studies in which it was used. For this study, the reliability of the scale was determined as 0, 744 and was highly reliable. 2.3.3. Mobbing (Psychological Violence) Scale The appropriate questions for this study about mobbing were chosen from the LIPT (Leymann Inventory of Psychological Terror) , the questionnaire version of which was developed by Klaus Niedl and were selected from the Negative Action Questionnaire (NAQ) , the questions of which were developed by Stale Einarsen, Björn Inge Raknes, Stig Berge Matthiesen and Odd (Mercan, 2007: 120). The Mobbing Scale including 14 items was examined in accordance with 5 points Likert Scale (1= Absolutely disagree, 5= Absolutely agree). With a minimum score of 5 and maximum score of 70, the mobbing (being subject to psychological violence) was said to be increasing when the total score rises. In these studies, the reliability of the scale (α ) was observed to be considerably high and the reliability and validity were proved. For this study, the reliability of the scale was observed as 0, 959 and was found to be highly reliable. 2.3.4. Organizational Silence Scale The question form designed by Çakıcı ve Çakıcı (2007) was used for preparing the questions about organizational silence. The scale consisted of 28 questions and was examined in accordance with 5 points Likert type. ( 1= Absolutely disagree, 5=Absolutely agree). The most appropriate 13 out of 28 questions were chosen for the study. The minimum score was 5 and the maximum score was 65 and it was stated that the higher the total point was, the more the organizational silence becomes. Many studies that this scale was used indicated that this scale was a considerably reliable one. As for this study, the reliability of the scale was determined as 0,951 and was rather high. 2.3.5. Organizational Justice Scale While preparing the questions about Organizational Justice, 20 item- Organizational Justice Scale of Niehoff and Moorman (1993) was used (Yıldırım, 2002). The scale was evaluated in accordance with 5 points Likert type. ( 1= Absolutely disagree, 5=Absolutely agree). With the evaluation of each response for each statement, the score of organizational justice was found. The minimum score was 5 and the maximum score was 100 and it was stated that the higher the total point was, the more effective the organizational justice applications are. Many studies in which this scale was used indicated that this scale was a considerably reliable one. As for this study, the reliability of the scale was determined as 0,956 and was indicated to be considerably high. 3. Data Analysis In this study, Independent Samples T Test and ANOVA were used in accordance with the aim of the study. Data analysis was made using SPSS 17.0 package program. .05 and .01 significance levels are used in the study. 85 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 4. Findings 4.1. Demographics Demographic profiles of the respondents can be seen in Table 1. Table 1. Demographics Variables Gender Age n % Female 117 51,1 Male 112 48,9 Total 229 100,0 25-30 32 14,0 31-36 95 41,5 37-42 38 16,6 43 and over 64 27,9 Total 229 100,0 Primary School 31 13,5 High School 51 22,3 Vocational School 26 11,4 Undergraduate 75 32,8 Graduate 46 20,0 Total 229 100,0 2-6 years 41 17,9 7-11 years 117 51,1 12-16 years 71 31,0 Total 229 100,0 1500 TL and less 67 29,2 1501-2000 TL 21 9,2 2001-2500 TL 29 12,7 Education Work Experience Salary 86 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Position Weekly Working Hour 2501-3000 TL 20 8,7 3001-3500 TL 47 20,5 3501 and more 45 19,7 Total 229 100,0 Worker 68 29,7 Assistant 22 9,6 Expert 14 6,1 Middle Level Manager 47 20,5 Senior Manager 78 34,1 Total 229 100,0 41-60 hour 80 34,9 61-80 hour 145 63,3 81 hour and more 4 1,8 Total 229 100,0 As it is seen in Table 1 the ratio of female and male is nearly the same. The dominant age group is between 31 and 36 (41.5 %). Above half of the respondents are graduated from the university (52.8%). Most of them have been working for less than 12 years (69%). Majority of them are in the group of 7 and 11 years as working experience (51%). Workers (29.7%) and senior managers (34.1%) are two dominant groups and the salaries are less than 1.500 TL. (29.2%) and more than 3.000 TL.(40.2%). People are working mostly between 61-80 hours in a week (63.3%). 4.2. Reliability Analysis Reliability is determined with Cronbach’s Alpha. The reliability results can be seen at Table 2. Table 2. Reliability Analysis Results N 87 Cronbach’s Alpha �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Organisational Commitment Mobbing Organisational Silence Organisational Justice 18 14 13 10 0,744 0,959 0,951 0,956 It seems that reliability of all the scales is high. 4.3. Normality Tests The normality tests are done in this part of the study. To test the normality, KolmogorovSmirnov Z test was applied using the total points of the scales. This normality tests were done to determine which tests were appropriate to examine the hypotheses tests. Table 3. Results of Normality Tests KolmogorovSmirnov Z 3,610 4,116 2,405 4,000 Organisational Commitment Mobbing Organisational Silence Organisational Justice p 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 According to the Table 3, total scores of the scales do not seem to fit the normal distribution (p<0,05). This result leads the researchers to use non-parametric methods to test the hypotheses. 4.4. Findings According to Gender Differences Table 4 shows the Mann Whitney U test results of gender differences in organisational commitment, mobbing, organisational silence, and organisational justice. Table 4. Findings According to Gender Differences- Mann Whitney U Test Results Scale Group N Mean Rank U P Organisational Commitment Mobbing Organisational Silence Organisational Justice 88 Female 117 135,53 Male 112 93,55 Female 117 84,35 Male 112 147,02 Female 117 92,71 Male 112 138,29 Female 117 135,71 4150,000 0,000** 2966,000 0,000** 3944,000 0,000** 4129,000 0,000** �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Male 112 93,37 ** p<0,01 It is seen from the Table 4 that hotel employees’ perception on organisational commitment, mobbing, organisational silence, and organisational justice differs at 0.01 significant level between females and males. According to the mean ranks, perception of female employees on organisational commitment and organisational justice are higher than male employees whereas for the mobbing and organizational silence, perception of male employees is higher than females. 4.5. Findings According to Age Differences To test the differences occur for organisational commitment, mobbing, organisational silence and organisational justice according to the age, Kruskal Wallis H test was applied. The results are indicated at Table 5. Table 5. Findings According to Age Differences- Kruskal Wallis H Test Results 2 Scale Group N Mean Rank P  Organisational Commitment Mobbing Organisational Silence Organisational Justice 89 25–30 32 106,03 31–36 95 129,22 37–42 38 111,03 43 years and over 64 100,73 25–30 32 142,66 31–36 95 102,95 37–42 38 58,12 43 years and over 64 152,83 25–30 32 133,47 31–36 95 96,41 37–42 38 77,16 43 years and over 64 155,83 25–30 32 90,00 31–36 95 138,93 37–42 38 154,11 8,177 0,042* 58,456 0,000** 47,078 0,000** 62,641 0,000** �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 43 years and over 64 68,77 ** * p<0,01 p<0,05 According to the age of the hotel employees there are significant differences for all scales. The significance level is 0.05 for the organisational commitment whereas 0.001 for other scales. 4.6. Findings According to Differences in Education Level Table 6 shows the Kruskal Wallis H test results of education differences in organisational commitment, mobbing, organisational silence, and organisational justice. Table 6. Findings According to Education Differences- Kruskal Wallis H Test Results 2 Scale Group N Mean Rank P  Organisational Commitment Mobbing Organisational Silence Organisational Justice 90 Primary School 31 16,00 High School 51 101,88 Vocational School 26 161,88 Undergraduate 75 146,81 Graduate 46 117,89 Primary School 31 183,03 High School 51 154,55 Vocational School 26 125,58 Undergraduate 75 76,84 Graduate 46 81,54 Primary School 31 198,52 High School 51 140,59 Vocational School 26 123,04 Undergraduate 75 78,84 Graduate 46 84,76 Primary School 31 46,16 High School 51 92,43 103,004 0,000** 89,458 0,000** 89,958 0,000** 80,135 0,000** �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Vocational School 26 83,27 Undergraduate 75 143,52 Graduate 46 157,85 ** p<0,01 According to the education level of the hotel employees there are differences for all scales at 0.01 significance level. It seems that perception of mobbing and organisational silence increase as the level of education decreases. On the other hand, the organisational justice perception increases as the level of education increases. 4.7. Findings According to Differences in Work Experience Table 7 shows the Kruskal Wallis H test results of differences of work experience of employees for organisational commitment, mobbing, organisational silence, and organisational justice Table 7. Findings According to Work Experience- Kruskal Wallis H Test Results N Mean Rank 2 P Organizational 2–6 years 41 55,29 42,881 0,000** Commitment 7–11 years 117 123,05 12–16 years 71 136,21 2–6 years 41 151,68 31,221 0,000** 7–11 years 117 92,21 12–16 years 71 131,38 Organizational 2–6 years 41 165,59 36,444 0,000** Silence 7–11 years 117 94,00 12–16 years 71 120,39 Organizational 2–6 years 41 88,29 27,834 0,000** Justice 7–11 years 117 137,29 12–16 years 71 93,68 Scale Mobbing ** p<0,01 91 Group �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo According to the work experience of the hotel employees the difference at the significance level is 0.01 for the organisational commitment, mobbing, organizational silence and organizational justice. 4.8. Findings According to Differences in Positions Table 8 shows the Kruskal Wallis H test results of differences in position for organisational commitment, mobbing, organisational silence, and organisational justice. Table 8. Findings According to Position- Kruskal Wallis H Test Results Scale Group N Mean 2 P 159,880 0,000** 152,276 0,000** 170,593 0,000** 142,661 0,000** Rank Organizational Assistant 22 109,68 Commitment Middle Level Manager 47 179,47 Senior Manager 78 125,58 Expert 14 206,50 Worker 68 41,19 Assistant 22 160,32 Middle Level Manager 47 67,55 Senior Manager 78 77,91 Expert 14 58,50 Worker 68 187,31 Organizational Assistant 22 131,86 Silence Middle Level Manager 47 81,72 Senior Manager 78 80,37 Expert 14 7,50 Worker 68 194,40 Organizational Assistant 22 84,50 Justice Middle Level Manager 47 114,40 Senior Manager 78 166,08 Expert 14 198,50 Worker 68 49,50 Mobbing 92 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo ** p<0,01 According to the work positions of the hotel employees, the difference at the significance level is 0.01 for the organisational commitment, mobbing, organizational silence and organizational justice. 5. DISCUSSION In this study, it was determined that the woman employees’ perception of organizational commitment and organizational justice is higher than that of the men whereas the men employees’ perception of organizational silence is higher than that of the women. As for the age, while the organizational commitment of 31-36 age groups is the highest, the employees’ commitment at the age of 43 and over is the lowest. The age group 43 and over was subject to mobbing at the highest level and 25-30 ages followed that and 37-42 age group were subject to the mobbing the least. Moreover, while organizational silence of the 43 and over age group is the highest, the organizational silence of 37-42 is the lowest. The organizational justice perception of the age group 37-42 was determined to be the highest. The organizational commitment of the employees who are graduates of primary school is the lowest and vocational school graduates’ perception is the highest. The primary school graduates were observed to be subject to mobbing more often than the others. Generally, it can be stated that the higher the graduate degree is, the lower the employees are subject to mobbing. It was also observed that the organizational silence of primary school graduates is higher than that of the others. As the education level increases, the perception of organizational silence decreases. Besides, as the education level increases, the perception of organizational justice increases in parallel. In general, it was determined that as the working year increases, the organizational commitment increases, too. While the mobbing rate is the highest among the employees having a work experience of 2-6 years; it is the lowest among 7-11 years. The organizational silence of the employees who worked for 2-6 years is the highest and 7-11 years is the lowest. The organizational justice perception of the employees with 2-6 years of working experience is the lowest and 7-11 years of working experience is the highest. As for the positions, the workers organizational commitment is the lowest and that of the experts is the highest. The mobbing rate among the workers is the highest whereas it the lowest among the experts. The organizational silence of the workers is the highest and that of the experts is the lowest. The perception of organizational justice of the experts is the highest while that of the workers is the lowest. REFERENCES Akgeyik, T., Güngör, M., Usen, Ş. & Omay U. (2009). İşyerinde Psikolojik Taciz Olgusu: Niteliği, Yaygınlığı ve Mücadele Stratejisi. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi, 56, 91-150. 93 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Baş, G. & Şentürk, C. (2011). İlköğretim Okulu Öğretmenlerinin Örgütsel Adalet, Örgütsel Vatandaşlık ve Örgütsel Güven Algıları. Educational Administration: Theory and Practice, 17(1), 29-62. Becker, H.S. (1960). Notes on the Consept of Commitment. American Journal of Sociology, 66(1), 32-40. Blackman, D. & Sadler-Smith, E. (2009). The Silent and the Silenced in Organizational Knowing and Learning. Management Learning, 40(5), 569-585. Cohen-Charash, Y. & Spector, P. E. (2001). The Role of Justice in Organizations: A Meta Analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 86(2), 278-321. Çakıcı, A. & Çakıcı, C. (2007). İş gören Sessizliği: Konuşmak Mı Zor, Sessiz Kalmak Mı Zor?, 15. Ulusal Yönetim ve Organizasyon Kongresi, Sakarya, 389-400. Davenport, N., Swartz, R.D. & Eliot, G.P. (2003). Mobbing: İşyerinde Duygusal Taciz, (Çev.: Osman Cem Önertoy), Sistem Yayıncılık, İstanbul. Erenler, E. (2010). Çalışanlarda Sessizlik Davranışının Bazı Kişisel Ve Örgütsel Özelliklerle İlişkisi: Turizm Sektöründe Bir Alan Araştırması. Yayınlanmış Doktora Tezi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İşletme Anabilim Dalı, Ankara. Kitapçı, H. (2006). “TKY’de Karar Almaya Katılımın ve Örgütsel Bağlılığın Kişisel Performansa Etkisi”, Bilig, 39, 73-86. Leymann, H. (1996). The Content and Development of Mobbing at Work. Europen Journal of Work and Organizational Psychology, 5, 165-184. Mercan, N. (2007). Örgütlerde Mobbing’in Örgüt İklimiyle İlişkisine Yönelik Bir Araştırma. Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kütahya. Meyer, J. P. & Allen, N. J. (1991). A Three-Component Conceptualization of Organizational Commitment. Human Resources Management Review, 1, 61-89. Morrison, E. W. & Milliken, F.J. (2000). Organizational Silence: A Barrier to Change and Development in a Pluralistic World. The Academy Of Management Review, 25(4), 706-725. Niehoff, B.P.I. & Moorman, R.H. (1993). Justiee as a Mediator of the Relationship Between Methods of Monitoring and Organizational Citizenship Behavior. Academy of Management Journal, 36(3), 527-556. Olweus, D. (1993). Bullying at School What We Know and What We Can Do, Oxfort, Blackwell. St‐Pierre, I. & Holmes, D. (2010). The Relationship between Organizational Justice and Workplace Aggression. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 66(5), 1169‐1182. Topaloğlu, M., Koç, H. & Yavuz, E. (2008). Öğretmenlerin Örgütsel Bağlılığının Bazı Temel Faktörler Açısından Analizi, Kamu-İş, 9(4), 949-967. Yavuz, H. (2007). Çalışanlarda Mobbing (Psikolojik Şiddet) Algısını Etkileyen Faktörler: SDÜ Tıp Fakültesi Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Isparta. Yıldırım, F. (2002). Çalışma Yaşamında Örgüte Bağlılık ve Örgütsel Adalet İlişkisi. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara. 94 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1155 Title A name given to the resource Analysis Of The Hotel Personnel’s Conceptions Of Organizational Justice, Organizational Silence, Mobbing, Organizational Commitment In Terms Of Demographic Variables Author Author Şevket , Yirik Abstract A summary of the resource. This study analyses the conceptions of organizational justice, organizational silence, mobbing, organizational commitment in terms of demographic variables in hotel management. Field work is carried out in the 5-star hotels that are active during 12 months in the Manavgat region of Antalya (Turkey). The study is supported by 229 hotel personnel and all responded. The study reveals that factors such as gender, age, educational level, professional rank and position have considerable effects on the conceptions of institutional devotion, mobbing, institutional repose and institutional justice. Keywords: Organizational Justice, Organizational Silence, Mobbing, Organizational Commitment Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/2a333f7e319c702af222fdccc0555e06.pdf 3f5bec6835cc2c85f35141f3b1bb0388 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Relation Between Businesses – Family Conflict And Role Uncertainty, Role Conflict And Work Satisfaction Şevket Yirik, Yusuf Yilmaz, Sedat Göçen, Osman Nuri Demirel, Abdullah Akgün, Hasan Kinay Akdeniz University, Turkey E-mails: yagmur185@hotmail.com, yusufyilmaz@akdeniz.edu.tr, sedatgocen@gmail.com, onuridemirel@mynet.com, akgun@akdeniz.edu.tr, kinay@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstract The objective of this study is to analyze the affects of the conflict between business life – family life on the employees’ attitudes towards work and their behavior patterns during work in the frameworks of the concepts. In this respect this study identifies the affects of business – family conflict on of role conflict, role uncertainty and work satisfaction. The universe of the research is constituted by 150 people who are among the members of Antalya World Trade Center. As a result of the hypotheses; there is a relation between the role uncertainty and role conflict perceived by the employees and work-family life conflict. Also, there is a relation between the role uncertainty and role conflict perceived by the employees and their work satisfaction. There is also a relation between work satisfaction and work-family life conflict. Keywords: Businesses – Family Conflict, Role Uncertainty, Role Conflict, Work Satisfaction 1. INTRODUCTION Is it possible that the employees may establish a healthy balance between their private and business lives by simultaneously being able to sustain their professional efficiency and to reserve sufficient time to their families in order to be happy? The importance of this proposed balance between business life and private life in professional success and household happiness is frequently accentuated by the publications concerning popular business life. Research undertaken till today indicates that providing the above-mentioned balance is difficult. The reason is that the business and family lives have constantly changing natures. When it is considered that business organizations are open systems, it can be easily stated that the organizing objectives, which shape the employee’s life, the organization’s culture and structure, the administrator’s directing style, business process, administration system shaping this process, the work definition of the employee, work requirements and standards are all elements and processes which are subject to changes. Besides, the employee’s family life is also quiet open to change since it is directly related with the family which is a social institution with biological, psychological, educational, social and legal dimensions. 94 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Therefore the relation between businesses – family life has also a changeable character. It is mostly probable that this changeable character leads to clashes in the personal life. When conflict is inevitable, one is obliged to manage the conflict (Efeoğlu, 2006: 1). 2. CONCEPTUAL INFORMATION 2.1. The Conflict between Business and Family Roles In our age, business life, which constitutes the major part of daily life, is the primary determinant of one’s personal life standards, expectations and future plans. Everyone has two roles shifting between work and home and inevitably reflects his / her professional problems to home and private problems to work. When the household roles and expectations of the family from the person is considered along with the long and concentrated work hours, the great personal load can be better appreciated. One’s expectations concerned with work and home point to success in his / her roles together with the feelings of satisfaction and tranquility. The conflict between businesses – family is defined as the clash of roles that happens due to the disaccord between the role expectations originating from work and family (Greenhaus et al., 1989: 313). If the working member of the family is a married person also being a mother / father, this means that his / her workload is heavy. The work – family conflict emerges when one has more than one role. The theories about being overloaded and obscured state that high work conflict brings together the conflict of work – family. Business facts such as role uncertainty, role clash, high intellectual and physical effort, psychological pressure due to heavy workload, insufficiency of time, milieu under stress etc., are directly related with the work – family conflict (Higgins & Duxbury, 1992: 392-393). Problems due to the dual roles related with work and home is accompanied with clash of roles. The reason of the role clash is the incompatibility of these roles attributed to one person (Çarıkçı, 2001). Acquisition of more than one role and disaccord between these roles lead to role stress. The concepts of role stress and role clash is more related with the nature of the role than with individual incapabilities in the accomplishment of the role. The individual gets disappointed due to this situation (Özgüven, 1989: 35). The greatness of the clash between work – family roles forces one to choose between the family or work and this results in dissatisfied and pessimist behavior. The work-family conflict is two-directional: work-family conflict happens when the work does not let one fulfill the family role, while the work-family conflict happens when the family does not let one fulfill the work role (Duxburry at al., 1994: 450). The work-family conflict is a multidimensional and multidirectional process. While the level of attachment of the person to his / her work or family, the problems experienced at home or work and the requirements and expectations of the family or work determine the situation before the conflict, as a result of the conflict, one’s satisfactions with the life at home or work and related with this, one’s general level of satisfaction with the life may decrease (Jackson et al., 1985: 575; see Çarıkçı, 2001). 95 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The simultaneous requirements of work and family may lead to stress on the person and may direct the person to thinking his preoccupations. It can be argued that the work-family conflict is a result of the clash between three roles: being at the same time mother / father and wife / husband. Because of this situation, the responsibilities of the individual increase and roles may be complicated with each other (Carlson & Kacmar, 2000). 2.2. Role Uncertainty Different definitions of role uncertainty agree on the fact that it emerges due to the individual’s insufficient information about his / her roles. Role uncertainty within an organization is defined as the uncertainty of professional expectations from the employee and the insufficiency of orientation about his / her role in the work environment (Şimşek & Aslan, 2007: 725). Özkalp and Kırel analyze the types of role uncertainty under two main groups (Kundakçı, 2003): • Mission Uncertainty: It is the ambiguity about the missions or duties of the employees working for an organization. It has different levels according to the shortage of information and definition on the mission. • Social – Emotional Uncertainty: It is the situation when the employee does not know how he / she is evaluated by others. Uncertainty happens because the criterions of evaluation are not clearly defined. The individual experiencing this problem does not know into which extent he / she is necessary for the organization and this may lead to dissatisfaction. 2.3. Role Conflict Role conflict is the problem of an individual who has conflicting roles and who is obliged to fulfill the requirements of these roles at the same time. In this case, the individual neglects one of these roles for the sake of accomplishing the other one. In another sense, this is a psychological situation originating from the disaccord between the inner and outer worlds of the individual (Randolph & Posner, 1981: 89). For Stanley (Stanley, 2006: 32) this problem is mostly observed in employees working in the field of medicine. The most frequent reason of their problem is the hidden clash between the clinic roles related with the professional values and administrative roles related with the organizational values. Kahn and his friends classify the types of role conflict as the inner conflict of the role sender, the conflict amongst the role senders, the conflict between the roles, the conflict between the individual and the role and excessive load of roles (Kundakçı, 2003): • the inner conflict of the role sender: In this case the expectations of the person who requires the role are conflicting with each other. Hence fulfilling one requirement may render the 96 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo other impossible. For instance, a man who wants to be successful in his husband and father roles by at the same time being obliged to work hard, exemplifies this case. • the conflict amongst the role senders: When there are more than one role senders with clashing requirements this creates a tension on the role obligator. • the conflict between the roles: This problem is observed when a role obligator responsible for many requirements cannot decide which role is the most important one. • the conflict between the individual and the role: This is the dissonance between the personal values, faiths, preoccupations and capabilities of the role obligator and the requirements of his / her role. • the excessive load of roles: This is the loading of roles which exceeds the capabilities of an individual. 2.4. Work Satisfaction An important portion of one’s lifespan passes at the work environment. For this reason, one’s level of satisfaction at work considerably affects his / her overall life and pleasure felt through work and the resultant positive affect of this on the life gradually improve psychological and physiological health. This leads to happiness in family life and efficiency in business organization (Örücü at al., 2003). One of the most important factors, which determine the employee’s behavior patterns at the business organizations, is their level of contention with their job. It is difficult to define work satisfaction because it is an abstract concept. Although generally definitions of work satisfaction are similar, there are still different definitions of this term. These definitions may be summarized as follows: in its most basic sense, work satisfaction is one’s positive attitude towards his / her work ( Noe at al., 2004: 325). This definition regards work satisfaction as a feeling. In general, work satisfaction is the employees’ positive or negative reactions against situations that constitute the overall working milieu. (Özgüven, 2003: 127). Work satisfaction may also be defined as the pleasure or positive behavior reached at the end of an evaluation of working milieu. (Babin & Griffin, 1998: 128). This definition emphasizes the behavioral dimension of the concept. Therefore employees’ feelings concerning any kind of work-related situation constitute work satisfaction. Dikmen argues that work satisfaction is an emotional rather than intellectual reaction against work. (Dikmen, 1995: 116). This definition emphasizes the emotional rather than cognitive dimension of the concept. 3. DEVELOPMENT OF HYPOTHESES 3.1. The Relation between Work-Family Life Conflict and Role Stress Role is the process or activity which is expected from an employee by others. The following features of role differentiate it from mission: Some of the activities and processes undertaken 97 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo for the requirements of the role may not be related with the mission of the employee, those who expect roles may be someone else than the superiors. However, the processes and activities undertaken for the fulfillment of the mission is related with the objectives of the business organization and the accomplishment of these tasks are required by superiors in the basis of legal documents (Başaran, 1982). Role conflict happens when expectations emerging from the roles assigned to the employee clash with each other. In other words, role conflict occurs as a result of the state of ambivalence due to different and contradictory roles. On the other hand, as the role of the employee becomes more indefinite, the intensity of the employee’s ambivalence increases. The factors that increase role uncertainty are employee’s lack of information concerning his / her authorizations, responsibilities and employer’s expectations, non-existence of a clear definition of the work and planned objectives and required standards regarding the work, incertitude about the efficient usage of time during work. Role conflict increases when the works that have to be done by the employee are quite varied and unrelated with each other, when there are insufficient number of personals to fulfill the given task, when the employee is sometimes obliged to violate certain rules for the accomplishment of the task, when the employee is in relation with working groups which take part in quite different components of the business organization, when the employer receives contradictory requirements during the work. The following hypothesis is derived in order to assess the nature of the relation between role conflict, role uncertainty and work-family conflict: H1: There is a relation between role uncertainty and role conflict perceived by the employee and work-family life conflict. 3.2. The Relation between Role Stress and Work Satisfaction Work satisfaction is the gratification due to the harmony between the character of work and personal expectations and character (Fisher, 2001). Work dissatisfaction, on the other hand, is the incapability of the work in fulfilling the professional expectations. The following hypothesis is derived in order to assess the nature of the relation between the constituents of role stress and work satisfaction: H2: There is a relation between role uncertainty and conflict perceived by the employee and work satisfaction. 3.3. The Relation between Work-Family Life Conflict and Work Satisfaction While the pre-conditions of conflict is constructed by the level of one’s attachment to work or family, the problems one experiences at work or family and obligations originating from work or family, as a result of the conflict, there may be considerable decrease in one’s satisfaction concerning work and family life and general life. (Jackson at al., 1985: 575). 98 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The more employees realize that their institutions support family, the more they make advantage of existing work-family benefits and the less they experience work-family conflict. In addition, these kinds of employees become more satisfied with their work, their institutional engagement increase and their tendency to hand over their jobs decrease. On the other hand, the employees which think that their institutions support their families very little, experience work-family conflict even after the administrative support and population-related parameters are controlled. Because of this, the improvement of the enterprise culture in a family supportive direction is the prerequisite for using the advantages of family supportive policies. (Donovan & Halpern, 2002: 32). Work satisfaction is a central issue also from the viewpoint of work-family conflict. The level of the employees’ work satisfaction is mostly related with their companies. Employers give importance to employees’ gratification because they think that this factor increases work efficiency and decreases the handing over of the jobs and firm costs. Therefore, in the context of the current environment of professional competence certain fields of specializations emerge. The reason of the companies’ effort to gratify their employees is the high level of efficiency presented by the satisfied employees. The following hypothesis is derived in order to assess the nature of the relation between work-family conflict and work satisfaction: H3: There is a relation between work satisfaction and work-family life conflict. 4. METHODOLOGY AND ANALYSIS 4.1. The Objective of the Research The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of the work-family life conflict on the employees’ attitudes towards work and their behavior at work in the framework of the concepts of Role Conflict, Role Uncertainty and Work Satisfaction. In so doing, this part will identify the effects of the work-family life conflict on Role Conflict, Role Uncertainty and Work Satisfaction. 4.2. Sample Selection and Data Collection The data used in this research is composed of primary type information. Questionnaires are collected by using face-to-face communication method. The universe of the research is constituted by the members of Antalya World Trade Center during 2010. The sample concerned with the research is formed as a result of coincidental sampling method. A total of 150 completed questionnaires were received. 4.3. Scales Used During the research, a questionnaire form composed of the variables is set up in order to render the hypotheses measurable. The study plans to use the 10-entried Work-Family Life Conflict Scale developed by Netenmeyer, Boles and McMurrian (1996) ; 6-entried Work 99 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Satisfaction Scale developed by Rusbult and Farrell (1983), 14-entried “Role Conflict and Role Uncertainty Scale” and “Personal Information Form” developed by the author. The resultant evidence will be evaluated by using the SPSS 17.0 program. 5.FINDINGS 5.1. Demographical Characteristics Age: 23,3 % of the participants are between the ages of 26 – 33, while 36,7 % are between 34 – 41, 23,3 % are between 42 – 49 and 16,7 % are 50 and above. Age Percent Cumulative Valid Percent Percent 26–33 35 23,3 23,3 23,3 34–41 55 36,7 36,7 60,0 42–49 35 23,3 23,3 83,3 50+ 25 16,7 16,7 100,0 Total 150 100,0 100,0 Frequency Valid Education: 3,3 % of the participants are primary school graduates while 20 % have secondary school, 43,3 % have high school, 30 % have university (bachelor) and 3,3 % have post-graduate degrees. Education Valid Primary School Secondary School 100 Frequency Percent Cumulative Valid Percent Percent 5 3,3 3,3 3,3 30 20,0 20,0 23,3 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo High School 65 43,3 43,3 66,7 University (Bachelor) 45 30,0 30,0 96,7 Post-Graduate 5 3,3 3,3 100,0 Total 150 100,0 100,0 Profession: The professions of the participants are given below. The most frequent professionals are teachers, journalists and public relations specialists. Profession Frequency Percent Cumulative Valid Percent Percent 50 33,3 33,3 33,3 25 16,7 16,7 50,0 Public Relations 25 16,7 16,7 66,7 Manager 25 16,7 16,7 83,3 Vice-manager 25 16,7 16,7 100,0 Total 150 100,0 100,0 Valid Teacher Journalist 5.2. HYPOTISES TESTING H1: There is a relation between role uncertainty and role conflict perceived by the employee and work-family life conflict. Correlations Role Conflict and Role Uncertainty Role Conflict and Role Pearson Correlation 1 101 Work-Family Conflict ,285** �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Uncertainty Sig. (2-tailed) N Work-Family Conflict ,000 150 Pearson Correlation ,285** Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 N 150 150 1 150 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). The value of the Correlation coefficient Sig. (2 tailed) is found 0,000. H1 is accepted. There is a relation between role uncertainty and conflict perceived by the employee and workfamily life conflict. This relation is a positive weak Correlation at the value of 0,285. H2: There is a relation between role uncertainty and conflict perceived by the employee and work satisfaction. Correlations Role Conflict and Role Work Uncertainty Satisfaction Role Conflict and Role Pearson Correlation 1 Uncertainty Sig. (2-tailed) N Work Satisfaction 150 Pearson Correlation -,742** Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 N 150 -,742** ,000 150 1 150 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). The value of the Correlation coefficient Sig. (2 tailed) is found 0,000. H1 is accepted. There is a relation between role uncertainty and conflict perceived by the employee and work satisfaction. This relation is a negative strong Correlation at the value of 0,742. 102 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo H3: There is a relation between work satisfaction and work-family life conflict. Correlations Work Satisfaction Work Satisfaction Pearson Correlation 1 Sig. (2-tailed) N Work-Family Conflict Work-Family Conflict -,328** ,000 150 Pearson Correlation -,328** Sig. (2-tailed) ,000 N 150 150 1 150 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). The value of the Correlation coefficient Sig. (2 tailed) is found 0,000. H1 is accepted. There is a relation between work satisfaction and work-family life conflict. This relation is a negative mediocre Correlation at the value of 0,328. 6. CONCLUSION The majority is between the ages of 34–41. Most of them are teachers, journalists and public relations specialists. Most of them have high school education as 43,3 % and university (bachelor) education as 30 %. As a result of the Hypotheses; there is a relation between the Role Uncertainty and Role Conflict perceived by the employees and Work-Family life Conflict. There is a weak relationship as positive. Also, there is a relation between the Role Uncertainty and Role Conflict perceived by the employees and their Work Satisfaction. There is a negative strong relationship. There is also a relation between Work Satisfaction and Work-Family life Conflict. There is a negative mediocre relationship. REFERENCES Babin, B.J. & Griffin, M. (1998). The Nature of Satisfaction: An Updated Examination and Analysis. Journal of Business Research, 41: 127-136. 103 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo BAŞARAN, İ.E. (1982). Örgütsel Davranışın Yönetimi. Ankara Üniversitesi Eğitim Fakültesi Yayını, Ankara. Carlson, D.S. & Kacmar, K.M. (2000), Family Conflict in the Organization: Do Life Dole Values Make a Difference?, Journal of Management, 26(5): 1031-1054. Çarıkçı, I. (2001). İş Aile Çatışmaları, Etkileşim, Süreci ve Nedenleri: Türkiye’de Banka çalışanlarında Bir Uygulama. 9. Ulusal Yönetim ve Organizasyon Kongresi, İstanbul. Dikmen, A.A. (1995). İş Doyumu ve Yaşam Doyumu İlişkisi. Ankara Üniversitesi Siyasa Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 50(3-4): 115-140. Donovan, N. & Halpern, D. (2002). Life Satisfaction: The State of Knowledge and Implications for Government, http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/media/ cabinetoffice/strategy/assets/paper.pdf, Accessed 11 Febrary 2012. Duxburry, L.E., Higgıns, C. & Lee C. (1994). Work Family Conflict:A Comparison by Gender, Family Type and Received Control. Journal of Family Issues,15(3): 449-466. Efeoğlu, I.E. (2006). İş-Aile Yaşam Çatışmasının İş Stresi, İş Doyumu ve Örgütsel Bağlılık Üzerindeki Etkileri: İlaç Sektöründe Bir Araştırma. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Adana. Fisher, R.T. (2001). Role Stress, the Type a Behaviour Pattern and External Auditor Job Satisfaction and Performance. Behavioral Research in Accounting, 13(1): 143-170. Greenhaus, J.H., Parasuraman, S., Granrose, C.S., Rabınowıtz, S. & Beutel, N. (1989). Sources of Work Family Conflict Among Two Carreer Couples. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 34(2), 133–153. Higgins, C.A. & Dugsbury, L.E. (1992). Work-Family Conflict- A Comparison of Dual Career and Traditional-Career Men. Journal of Organızatıonal Behavıor, 13(4), 389–411. Jackson, S.E., Zedeck, S. & Summers, E. (1985). Family Life Disruptions: Effects of Job Induced Structural and Emotional Interference. Academy of Management Journal, 28(3): 574-586. Kundakçı, A.H. (2003). Ankara Numune Eğitim ve Araştırma Hastanesi Hekimlerinin ve Hemşirelerinin Rol Çatışması ve Rol Belirsizliği Düzeylerinin Belirlenmesi. Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara. Netenmeyer, R.G., Boles, J.S. & Mcmurrian, R. (1996). Development and Validation of Work-Family Conflict and Family-Work Conflict Scales. Journal of Applied Psychology, 80: 400-409. Noe, R.A., Hollenbeck, J.R., Barry, G. & Wright, P.M. (2004). Fundamentals of Resource Management, McGraw-Hill/Irwin. 104 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Örücü, E., Türk, Z. & Süngü, A. (2003). Kit’lerde Performans Değerleme Çalışmalarına Astların Destek ve Güveni: Muğla–Yatağan Termik Santrali Örneği. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 10(2): 51–62. Özgüven, B.M. (1989). Toplum Bilimlerine Giriş, Ata Ofset Matbaacılık, Ankara. Özgüven, I.E. (2003). Endüstri Psikolojisi, Sistem Ofset, Ankara. Randolph, W.A. & Posner, B.Z. (1981). Explaining Role Conflict and Role Ambiguity via Individual and Interpersonal Variables in Different Job Categories. Personnel Psychology, 34 (1): 89–102. Rusbult, C. E. & Farrel, D. (1983). A Longitudinal Test of the Investment Model: The Impact on Job Satisfaction, Job Commitment and Turnover of Variations in Rewards, Costs, Alternatives and investments. Journal of Applied Psychology, 68(3), 429–438. Stanley, D. (2006). Role Conflict: Leaders and Managers. Nursing Management, 13(5): 31– 37. Şimşek, M. Ş. & Aslan, Ş. (2007). Mesleki ve Örgütsel Bağlılığın, İşin Özellikleri, Rol Stresi, Örgüte İlişkin Davranışsal Sonuçlar, İş ve Yaşam Doyumuyla İlişkilerinin Araştırılması. 15. Ulusal Yönetim ve Organizasyon Kongresi, Sakarya: 724–733. Sustainable women policies in local administrations Isparta practice Nesrin Şalvarci Türeli,Nedret Çağlar Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta Turkey E-mails: nesrintureli@sdu.edu.tr,nedretcaglar@sdu.edu.tr Abstract Nowadays, feminine policies have begun to set the agenda economically, socially and politically. Resolving inequality and sexual apartheid in community and sustaining it, is a fundamental principle of democracy. This principle also, constitutes one of the fundamental principles of the sustainable development. Therefore, while making feminine policies sustainable and generalizing in community, there are a lot and different things to do for different institutions, and there is a need to handle this subject integrated and cooperatively. In this study, local governments’ feminine studies and sustainability of this are worked on. For this purpose interviews have been made, studies of institutions are investigated on site 105 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1102 Title A name given to the resource The Relation Between Businesses – Family Conflict And Role Uncertainty, Role Conflict And Work Satisfaction Author Author Şevket, Yirik Abstract A summary of the resource. The objective of this study is to analyze the affects of the conflict between business life – family life on the employees’ attitudes towards work and their behavior patterns during work in the frameworks of the concepts. In this respect this study identifies the affects of business – family conflict on of role conflict, role uncertainty and work satisfaction. The universe of the research is constituted by 150 people who are among the members of Antalya World Trade Center. As a result of the hypotheses; there is a relation between the role uncertainty and role conflict perceived by the employees and work-family life conflict. Also, there is a relation between the role uncertainty and role conflict perceived by the employees and their work satisfaction. There is also a relation between work satisfaction and work-family life conflict. Keywords: Businesses – Family Conflict, Role Uncertainty, Role Conflict, Work Satisfaction Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/52a8ce4083aacaa726a2bc363de75efe.pdf 945207a9aa13bf67faca1492e9a46967 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Velasquez, M.G. (2006). Business Ethics Concepts & Cases. 6. Ed. Upper Saddle River: Pearson. Transformation Of The Institutional Structure Of Western Balkan Countries Şermin Şenturan1, Samir Husić2 1Bülent Ecevit University, Zonguldak/Turkey 2International University of Sarajevo,Bosnia and Herzegovina E- mails: senturansermin@gmail.com, samirhusic@gmail.com Abstract Transformation of the institutional structure affects economic development both from the cost of transactions aspect and the operating costs. In development theory it is usual to define development as economic growth plus structural change. But in the framework of institutional economic theory development could be defined as economic growth plus appropriate institutional change, meaning institutional changes which facilitate further economic growth.There are several factors influencing reforms in the Western Balkan countries. Those countries prove that institutions can successfully change at the time of crisis. Although the general rule shows strong correlations among the many reform measures, some institutions develop independently of other measures of institutional or organizational reform. As it is emphasized on the role of institutions in growth and development, it should be also recognized that institutions can change regardless of undesirable environmental factors. Keywords : institutional change, economic transition, Western Balkan Countries 1.INTRODUCTION Transformation of the institutions in a new market economies have been mostly radical in an astonished and unpredictable direction. Numerous factor influenced reforms that followed in liberalization of prices, privatization, opening of economy to the foreign investments, liberalization of the foreign exchange market, and the reduction of foreign trade restrictions. The main dimensions along which various national capitalist systems can be placed are the corporate governance and macroeconomic institutional environment (Cernat, 2001). Corporate governance and business-state relations influenced choice and path that economies in transition undertaken. Regardless of strong efforts, disintegration of these economies suffered severe contraction due to collapse of export demand from former trading partners, while domestic demand declined. 234 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Post-Communist Transition was mainly confronted with institutional transformation. Different concepts of institutions created different paths of transformations. At the beginning of the 1990`s, Central and Eastern European Countries (CEE) and Former Soviet Union Republics started with transformation towards market economy. Both the economic and the institutional frameworks were significantly changed. Today in the CEE’s there are developing guarantees of private property, new banks, new economic and administrative organizations, and other formal institutions imposed in a transitional time and by political resolution. Transformation of the institutional structure affects economic development both from the cost of transactions aspect and the operating costs. It will be argued further on that key challenge for governance in Western Balkan post-conflict period was institutional transformation required for successful and sustainable economic growth. Transition is a very complex process, since in the market economy the capital and labor allocation is completely different than in the centrally planned economy. All the formal institutions such as stock exchange, banks, investment funds, trade unions, property rights, enterprise confederations, and others are new. Their development is slow and affected by a learning process. Because of that, a shock therapy was a poor strategy and likely brought important recession in Western Balkans in the early 90's (Tridico, 2005). Anglo-Saxon variant of capitalism, or so called „Atlantic“ capitalism (Hodges and Woolcock, 1993) has certain specific fundamental institutional characteristics. Those characteristics involve the role of the state to maintain a stable environment for markets to operate freely from any political or social interference. 2.Objectives of the economic institutional structure reforms There is general agreement that systematic transformation of the institutions implies fundamental reforms in most of the areas. Such areas and institutional reforms are recognized in many political party programs of transitional countries, like in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Avdic and Međedovic, 2006). Many of above mentioned structural transformations already started in Western Balkan countries but had not been successfully implemented to the end. Reasons for those failures are complex, and most common one is missing political willingness to implement reforms. Usually decision makers are promoting reforms, especially in pre-election periods, but in reality they try to preserve situation unchanged and to continue to rule in the same manner. Sometimes decision makers did not achieved previously necessary institutional changes, so reforms are prevented to go faster. Very common in transition countries is lack of knowledge and expertise among policy decision-makers, which could not be overcome except with foreign support (Filipovic, 2006). 3.The negative effects of institutional transition 235 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In the first years of transition, the most important aim of Government was macrostabilization: the fight against inflation, the reduction of debt, the liberalization of prices, the budget balance and privatization. All these aims were considered necessary by international organizations and main stream economists to allow economic growth. Nevertheless these results were not sufficient to stimulate long-term and sustainable growth. Transition economies are affected by very high unemployment rates, a growing inequality rate, a considerable index of poverty, a chronic current account deficit and a considerable foreign debt. Moreover informal economy and corruption levels strongly persist. Economic transition countries of the former Yugoslavia, experienced tragic events, civil wars, crime domination and economy of chaos. Therefore they did not implement any institutional policies which would allow for an institutional governance, for the protection of weaker and poorer people, or for conflict management. On the contrary, the sudden introduction of the market economy and the end of social policies, welfare state and income redistribution policies caused an increase in poverty, inequality and unemployment (Adam, 1999). In order to expand human capabilities institutions are needed. Institutional policies would allow for improving the three essential capabilities for human development: leading long and healthy lives, being knowledgeable and having a decent standard of living. This approach assumes that economic growth requires first of all investment in human development. Countries which implemented institutional policies, social policies and a governance recovery, increased their level of human development. On the contrary, countries which did not implement such institutional policies did not increase their level of human development, and their economic growth was neither fast nor sufficient to recover the pre-1989 level of GDP per capita (Tridico, 2005). 4.Present position of Western Balkan countries Western Balkan countries proven after twenty years that only radical transformation of the institutional structure can lead them to the successful EU economy. Certain attempt to make small or incremental changes to the old institutional solutions, sooner or later become ineffective and just time consuming. Such small changes to the institutional arrangements happened quite frequently, though, so they produced a variety of organizational solutions based on old institutional framework. Considering advancement in development of the institutional structures, today we can classify all transition economies into three main categories (Filipovic, 2006): (a) The most successful economies in transition that provides stable economic growth rates, establish institutional framework comparable with developed economies and that already deeply enter into European integration (or become a full member states of the EU); (b) Relatively successful economies in transition that has temporary episodes of successes measured by economic and social performances - first of all through low level of inflation, high rate of GDP growth and avoiding of mass unemployment, but also followed by short 236 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo episodes of destabilization and worsening of their performances. Typical representatives in this group are some of Western Balkans countries, like Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, etc.; (c) Third group of countries in transition are the most obsolete countries, with slow and not in depth institutional changes, countries that are still at the beginning of the transition process and that miss enough courage to cope with the changes transition must comprised. In this group are most of the former Soviet Union members. The most successful transition economies, mentioned above, already becomes a full member of EU, accepting European standards, organizational structures and most important European institutional framework. Those countries liberalized their markets and open it to foreign direct investment inflow in early 1990’s, so most attractive investments and profitable opportunities for old EU investors are already reduced. On the other hand, in Western Balkan countries there are still some obstacles for their faster integration in European institutional framework: most of them lack transparent and effective judicial system, there is still inefficient implementation of laws, every new election are considered as potential change and turbulence in economic system. 5.Institutional structure reforms in Western Balkan countries The socialist economy was characterized by strong state intervention in economy which manifested itself through all-encompassing price control, subvention of enterprises, etc. Elimination of subventions and liberalization of market and prices at the beginning of 90s, together with an inadequate production structure, caused accumulation of losses in state companies. In spite of their losses, yet, the companies continued to operate. Their preservation was motivated by the avoidance of huge social costs which might arise in the case of their closure (Golubovic, 2005). The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) summed up, using transitional indicators, the advancement of structural and institutional reforms in the year 2010 for 29 countries in transition. Eleven transitional indicators encompass six main transitional areas: liberalization, privatization, companies, infrastructure, financial institutions, and the legal environment. Each indicator shows a synthesized assessment of improvement achieved in a certain area, based on various data, narrative information and analyses (EBRD, 2010). Countries in transition continued to advance in their structural and institutional reforms with various levels of success in last decade. Countries of South-East Europe advanced significantly, Baltic states and Central and East European countries achieved some advancement, while the advancement in newly independent states was modest. Comparison of the average yearly transitional index between economies in transition shows that in 2004 21 countries (scope 2,6-3,9) were more advanced than Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while only Turkmenistan, Belarus, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan showed results that were lower (EBRD, 2004). 237 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia FYR Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Population mid2010 (million) 3,2 3,8 4,4 2,0 0,7 9,9 Private sector share of GDP mid-2010 (EBRD estimate in per cent) 75 60 70 70 65 60 Large-scale privatisation 4- 3 3+ 3+ 3+ 3- Small-scale privatisation 4 3 4+ 4 4- 4- Governance and enterprise restructuring 2+ 2 3 3- 2 2+ Price liberalisation 4+ 4 4 4+ 4 4 Trade and foreign exchange system 4+ 4 4+ 4+ 4 4 Competition policy 2 2 3 2+ 2 2+ Banking reform and interest rate liberalisation 3 3 4 3 3 3 Securities markets and non-bank financial institutions 2- 2- 3 3- 2- 2 Overall infrastructure reform 2+ 3- 3 3- 2+ 2+ Table 1: Transition indicator scores 2010. - Enterprises Markets and trade Financial institutions Infrastructure. Source: EBRD, 2010. According to the EBRD assessment, in 2010 Albania has made steady progress with structural reform, despite having to overcome serious institutional weaknesses and one of the most difficult starting points for transition. In 2009, Albania submitted a formal application for EU membership. However, the country faces major reform challenges in a number of areas. The need to improve the quality of the infrastructure is a requirement, although the 238 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo government does have major investment plans for roads, railways and electric power. The banking sector has limited reach as a source of finance outside of the main cities, and nonbank financial institutions are at a very early stage of development. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s progress in transition has been effectively stalled for some years, and as a result the country lags behind all others in south-eastern Europe. The country’s complicated political and constitutional structure is a major hindrance to reform and good governance. A significant privatisation agenda lies ahead but, in the FBH at least, there appears to be little appetite for bringing major enterprises slated for sale to the market. As a result of the reform paralysis, the country also lags behind other EU candidates or potential candidates in the region in terms of EU approximation. Croatia has long been considered among the most advanced of the transition countries, with a broadly liberalised economy, a relatively high degree of sophistication in financial services, and a country where significant progress has been made on infrastructure reform. The banking sector weathered the financial crisis well and remains sound and liquid. However, some major enterprises and financial institutions continue to rely on state subsidies although the level of subsidies has fallen significantly since 2005. The quality of the business environment remains a concern, according to cross-country surveys, and reflects the need to tackle obstacles to doing business, such as the cumbersome permit process, as well as the need to implement urgent public administration reforms. Progress in reform in FYR Macedonia throughout the transition period has been steady if somewhat slow, as the country has been hampered by weak administrative and institutional capacity. In the financial sector competition among banks is less vibrant than in neighboring countries and the development of capital markets is in its infancy. The country’s infrastructure also faces significant investment needs in the coming years. The Montenegrin authorities have made important advances in several areas, notably in price and trade liberalisation and financial sector development. Privatization is advanced, with most state assets having been sold off. The banking sector had grown very rapidly in the years before the crisis and progress has been made in strengthening supervisory and regulatory structures. Lastly, Montenegro has had some success in creating a favorable business climate and in attracting reputable foreign investors. Nevertheless, the country still has a significant transition agenda ahead. The challenges are particularly large in the infrastructure sector, notably in the power sector, which is crucial to supporting economic activity. Serbia began the transition later than most other countries, but has been catching up steadily over the past decade. Nevertheless, a major structural reform agenda still lies ahead. The challenges are particularly large in most infrastructure sectors, especially in the energy sector, which remains dominated by one state-owned company. A significant number of large enterprises also await privatisation once market conditions improve, both in the corporate sector and in parts of the financial sector, including the largest insurance company (EBRD, 2010). 239 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 6.CONCLUSIONS Effective institutional restructuring is not a question of adaptation of foreign rules and standards, but more the question of gradual and persistent time consuming process. Societies have different own norms and tradition, and their institutional building of formal rules are based on informal one. Transformation of these formal rules are often radical, especially when organizations with different interest emerge, and when institutional change cannot be mediated through the existing institutional framework. During transitional period, a great deal of effort of the international financial institutions was devoted to support of institutional building, as it was recognized as priority in transition economies. The reform index is both proven as a measure of the extent of reform, and a measure of institutional change. Economic growth is powerfully associated with that index. Western Balkan countries prove that institutions can successfully change at the time of crisis. Although the general rule shows strong correlations among the many reform measures, some institutions develop independently of other measures of institutional or organizational reform. As we emphasize the role of institutions in growth and development, we should also recognize that institutions can change regardless of undesirable environmental factors. The change of the financial sector reform in the Balkan countries in transition was different from the transition economies of Central Europe, since no radical changes took place in this sector in the Balkans. The Balkan countries accepted a gradualist approach to the financial sector reform stressing some other aspects of transformation. These countries' experiences in the nineties points out that partial institutional changes do not create a favorable environment for structural changes. Rather, structural reforms require integral and harmonized changes in all its segments. Both formal and informal structural change can contribute to growth, and the more structural transformations are made, the more rapidly the economy grow. REFERENCES Adam, J. (1999). Social costs of Transformation to a Market Economy in Post-Socialist Countries, the case of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. MacMillan Press, New York. Avdic, A. & Međedovic, A. (2006). Analiza ekonomskih platformi političkih stranaka u BiH. Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, Sarajevo. Cernat, L. (2001). Institutions and Economic Growth: What Model of Capitalism for Central and Eastern Europe? Conference on Institutions in Transition, Slovenia, July 2001. EBRD (2004). European Bank for Reconstruction and Development - Transition Report 2004: Infrastructure. http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/transition/TR04.pdf EBRD (2010). European Bank for Reconstruction and Development - Transition Report 2010: Recovery and Reform. http://www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/transition/tr10.pdf 240 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Filipovic, M. (2006). Importance of Institutional Development for Western Balkan Countries. 46th European congress of the Regional Science Association „Enlargement, Southern Europe & Mediterranean“. Volos, Aug. 30- Sep. 3 2006. Belgrade, April, 2006. Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States. (2011, June). Federal Reserve Statistical Release. Retrieved from http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/data.htm Golubović, S., & Golubović, N. (2005). Financial Sector Reform in the Balkan Countries in Transition. Economics and Organization Vol. 2, No 3, 2005, University of Niš, pp. 229 – 236. Hodges, M., Woolcock, S. (1993). Atlantic Capitalism versus Rhine Capitalism in the European Community. Frank Cass & & co ltd, Great Britain. Tridico, P. (2005). Institutional Change and Human Development in Transition Economies. European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy. EAEPE Conference paper, November 2005, Bremen (Germany). Empowerment At Higher Educational Organizations AŞermin Şenturan1, Julijana Angelovska2 1Bülent Ecevit Üniversity, Zonguldak/Turkey 2International Balkan University, Skopje/Makedonia E- mails : senturansermin@gmail.com, julijana.angelovska@yahoo.com Abstract Empowerment is a concept which is widely used in management and many managers and professional in various organizations claim to be practicing it. The objective of this study was to assess the construct validity and internal consistency of the Psychological Empowerment Questionnaire (PEQ) for employees in higher education. The PEQ was administered at private university in Skopje. The study is empirical research on psychological empowerment, and more specifically research regarding a tool that can be used to assess the level of psychological empowerment of employees in higher education organisations. If psychological empowerment can be measured in a reliable and valid manner, interventions can be implemented to promote the empowerment of employees. Exploratory factor analysis is used to verify the validity of the psychological empowerment comprising four cognitive dimensions i.e. meaning, competence, self-determination and impact in the context of private higher education institutions The subscales showed acceptable internal consistencies. Psychological empowerment can be measured in a reliable and valid manner in higher educational organizations. 241 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1120 Title A name given to the resource Transformation Of The Institutional Structure Of Western Balkan Countries Author Author Şermin, Şenturan Abstract A summary of the resource. Transformation of the institutional structure affects economic development both from the cost of transactions aspect and the operating costs. In development theory it is usual to define development as economic growth plus structural change. But in the framework of institutional economic theory development could be defined as economic growth plus appropriate institutional change, meaning institutional changes which facilitate further economic growth.There are several factors influencing reforms in the Western Balkan countries. Those countries prove that institutions can successfully change at the time of crisis. Although the general rule shows strong correlations among the many reform measures, some institutions develop independently of other measures of institutional or organizational reform. As it is emphasized on the role of institutions in growth and development, it should be also recognized that institutions can change regardless of undesirable environmental factors. Keywords : institutional change, economic transition, Western Balkan Countries Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/0edc809ebe1473411d03473f364b1531.pdf 82b865a21d51cc20fd580cb99c0effca PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Filipovic, M. (2006). Importance of Institutional Development for Western Balkan Countries. 46th European congress of the Regional Science Association „Enlargement, Southern Europe & Mediterranean“. Volos, Aug. 30- Sep. 3 2006. Belgrade, April, 2006. Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States. (2011, June). Federal Reserve Statistical Release. Retrieved from http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/data.htm Golubović, S., & Golubović, N. (2005). Financial Sector Reform in the Balkan Countries in Transition. Economics and Organization Vol. 2, No 3, 2005, University of Niš, pp. 229 – 236. Hodges, M., Woolcock, S. (1993). Atlantic Capitalism versus Rhine Capitalism in the European Community. Frank Cass & & co ltd, Great Britain. Tridico, P. (2005). Institutional Change and Human Development in Transition Economies. European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy. EAEPE Conference paper, November 2005, Bremen (Germany). Empowerment At Higher Educational Organizations AŞermin Şenturan1, Julijana Angelovska2 1Bülent Ecevit Üniversity, Zonguldak/Turkey 2International Balkan University, Skopje/Makedonia E- mails : senturansermin@gmail.com, julijana.angelovska@yahoo.com Abstract Empowerment is a concept which is widely used in management and many managers and professional in various organizations claim to be practicing it. The objective of this study was to assess the construct validity and internal consistency of the Psychological Empowerment Questionnaire (PEQ) for employees in higher education. The PEQ was administered at private university in Skopje. The study is empirical research on psychological empowerment, and more specifically research regarding a tool that can be used to assess the level of psychological empowerment of employees in higher education organisations. If psychological empowerment can be measured in a reliable and valid manner, interventions can be implemented to promote the empowerment of employees. Exploratory factor analysis is used to verify the validity of the psychological empowerment comprising four cognitive dimensions i.e. meaning, competence, self-determination and impact in the context of private higher education institutions The subscales showed acceptable internal consistencies. Psychological empowerment can be measured in a reliable and valid manner in higher educational organizations. 241 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Keywords: academia; psychological empowerment; employee; private higher education 1.INTRODUCTION Employee empowerment is considered by many organizational theorists and practitioners to be one of the most important and popular management concepts of our time. Empowerment of employees in the workplace provides them with opportunities to make their own decisions with regards to their tasks. Today many managers are practicing the concept of empowerment among their subordinates to provide them with better opportunities. Companies ranging from small to large and from low-technology manufacturing concerns to high-tech software firms have been initiating empowerment programs in attempts to enhance employee motivation, increase efficiency, and gain competitive advantages in the turbulent contemporary business environment. Empowerment is a desirable management and organizational style that enables employees to practice autonomy, control their own jobs, and use their skills and abilities to benefit both their organization and themselves. The word "empower" has potency and strength. Similar to the concept of "motivation," the most common misuse of the idea of empowerment is that one person can empower another. Empowerment is an inner-to-outer dynamic, most useful when preceded by silence and awareness of inner guidance. Empowerment is not simply another way to "get" something, it's a condition that supports you in living life fully. It is the process of providing production and managerial guidelines, and then allowing employees to make the day-to-day decisions that affect their job duties. Empowerment is the process of enabling or authorizing an individual to think, behaves, take action, and control work and decision making in autonomous ways. It is the state of feeling self-empowered to take control of one's own destiny. The problem for most executives is that managing employees is complex. An organization may simultaneously be working on employee empowerment and several other programs designed to improve performance. The key goal for managers is to understand the balance of performance elements with employees and trust their employees by empowering them to help the organization. Empowerment represents a kind of moral hazard for managers (Pfeffer at all,1998); depends on the ability of the manager to reconcile the potential loss of control inherent in sharing power with the need to empower employees for higher levels of motivation and productivity that often come with empowerment (Mills & Ungson, 2003). To reduce the risk of the moral hazard, managers and organizations can (1) set clear limits and boundaries as to what level of empowerment is appropriate so employees know what is acceptable (Blanchard et al, 2001; Seibert et al., 2004), (2) build trusting relationships in which employees are less likely to operate on self-interest, and (3) measure and reward key performance goals to ensure that individual and organizational goals are aligned (Spreitzer & Mishra, 1997). 242 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The above discussion suggests that a need for psychological empowerment exists for empirical research on psychological empowerment, and more specifically regarding a tool that can be used to assess the level of psychological empowerment of employees in higher education organisations. However, such a tool has to be proven reliable and valid and because no studies have been reported regarding the reliability and validity of a measuring instrument of psychological empowerment in Macedonia. If psychological empowerment can be measured in a reliable and valid manner, interventions can be implemented to promote the empowerment of employees. The objective of this study was to determine the construct validity and reliability of the Psychological Empowerment Questionnaire. 2.Psychological Empowerment Psychological empowerment exists when employees perceive that they exercise some control over their work life. Various schools of thought regarding psychological empowerment have evolved over time. Conger and Kanungo (1988) classified empowerment in terms of five stages. The first stage entails the diagnosis of conditions within the organization that are responsible for the feelings of powerlessness among employees. This leads to the use of empowerment strategies by managers in stage two, directed at removing the external conditions responsible for powerlessness. Thomas and Velthouse (1990) propose a cognitive model in which empowerment is shaped by an individual’s work context and personality traits. According to them, psychological empowerment consists of a set of four cognitions reflecting an employee’s orientation to his or her role, namely meaning (i.e. the value of his or her work), competence (i.e. his or her capability to perform the work), choice (i.e. the choice in initiating and regulating actions) and impact (i.e. the ability to affect organizational outcomes). Spreitzer (1995) modified the model of Thomas and Velthouse and defined empowerment as a motivational construct manifested in four cognitions: meaning, competence, self-determination and impact. According to Spreitzer, psychological empowerment reflects an individual’s active orientation to his or her work role and consists of cognitions that are shaped by the work environment rather than a fixed personality attribute. According to Menon (2001), psychological empowerment represents a psychological state that can be measured. It is regarded as a continuous variable, meaning that people can be viewed as either more or less empowered rather than empowered or not empowered The four dimensions of psychological empowerment, namely meaning, competence, selfdetermination and impact, combine additively to create an overall construct of psychological empowerment. The lack of a single dimension will deflate but not completely eliminate the overall effect of experienced empowerment (Spreitzer,1995). In summary, they are defined as follows: ‘Meaning’ is termed as “the value of a work goal or purpose, judged in relation to an individual’s own ideals or standards” (Spreitzer, 1995). It reflects a sense of purpose or 243 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo personal connection to work (Mishra & Spreitzer, 1998). Quinn and Spreitzer (1997) state that empowered people feel that their work is important to them and they care about what they are doing. ‘Competence’ or `self-efficacy` is “an individual’s belief in his or her capability to perform work role activities with skill” (Spreitzer, 1995). It indicates that individuals believe that they have the skills and abilities necessary to perform their work well (Mishra & Spreitzer, 1998). This dimension is labeled competence rather than self-esteem because of a focus on efficacy specific to a work role. ‘Self-determination’ is an individual’s sense of having choice in initiating actions. It reflects a sense of freedom about how individuals do their own work (Mishra & Spreitzer, 1998). Self-determination relates to the opportunity to select task activities that make sense and to perform in ways that seem appropriate (Quinn & Spreitzer, 1997). ‘Impact’ is the degree to which a person can influence strategic, administrative or operating outcomes at work. It describes a belief that individuals can influence the system in which they are embedded (Mishra & Spreitzer, 1998). This describes an individual’s ability to influence outcomes at work. Quinn and Spreitzer (1997) state that impact is the accomplishment one feels in achieving goals. The feeling of perceived impact involves the sense that employees’ activities are really accomplishing something and that others listen to them. (Spreitzer, 1995). The above-mentioned four dimensions represent the psychological perspective of empowerment. 3.Measurement of psychological empowerment Psychological empowerment was measured at a private university in Skopje/Macedonia by using 12 items from Spreitzer (1992, 1995b) based on four dimensions, namely meaning, competence, self-determination and impact. The scores from these dimensions are averaged to form an overall score for psychological empowerment for each respondent. The PEQ contains three items for each of the four sub dimensions of psychological empowerment (for example, Meaning: ‘The work I do is meaningful to me’; Competence: ‘I have mastered the skills necessary for my job’; Self-determination: ‘I have significant autonomy in determining how to do my job’; and Impact: ‘I have a great deal of control over what happens in my department’). Respondents were simply asked to indicate their agreement with the above items on a 5 points Likert scale ranging from "strongly disagree" to "strongly agree". The problem with most of the studies that focused on the construct validity of the PEQ is that they made use of exploratory factor analyses. Exploratory factor analysis is used primarily as a tool for reducing the number of variables or examining patterns of correlations among variables (Tabachnick & Fidell, 2001). Decisions about the number of factors and rotational scheme are based on pragmatic rather than theoretical criteria. Confirmatory factor analysis, in which different competing theoretical models can be tested, is appropriate when the aim is to find the best fitting theoretical model. Confirmatory factor analysis also makes it possible to specify first-order and second-order latent variables. Notably, the literature review showed 244 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo that deviations for the four-factor model of psychological empowerment were observed when exploratory factor analysis was implemented. Based on the above discussion, the following hypothesis is formulated for this study: Hypothesis 1: Psychological empowerment, as measured by the PEQ, is a four-dimensional construct (meaning, competence, self-determination and impact). Description of Sample: For our study, there were forty-two participants, or 80% of the employees. Majority of employees (88%) were younger than 40, or the ages of our participants range from the lowest of age twenty four to the highest of age sixty-two. More men (55%) than women (45%) participated in the research. The majority of employees as it is expected (32) had a level of highest education (PhD and MCs), or 31 of the respondents are academic stuff and 11 administrative. 4.Verification of psychological empowerment dimensions The analysis was carried out with the SPSS 15.0 program (SPSS, 2006). The reliability and validity of the PEQ were assessed by means of Cronbach alpha coefficients and factor analysis. Descriptive statistics (means and standard deviations) were computed to describe the data. Table 1 below shows the mean and standard deviation for each factor. Low rating in any dimension will lower overall empowerment. Therefore, higher ratings in all dimensions are needed to ensure a high level of empowerment (Lee & Koh, 2001). According to Brancato (2006), a worker should understand the dimensions of psychological empowerment and the strategies related to this concept. The administration should examine each dimension and be ready to take actions necessary to increase the level of employee agreement towards the dimensions and increase the level of psychological empowerment experienced by employee (Hancer & George, 2003). Table 1. Descriptive statistics and Cronbach alpha coefficients of the PEQ Mean Self-determination Std. Deviation Cronbach alpha 10,9762 2,83263 0.836 9,5952 2,74137 0.846 Meaning 13,5714 1,50029 0.724 Competence 13,9286 1,27629 0.720 Psychological Empowerment 48,0714 5,63263 0.807 Impact 245 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Competence and Meaning received the highest evaluation compared to other dimensions of psychological empowerment. This shows that employees feel that they are competent without an inconsistency between his or her personality and the job and their work is meaningful and important to them. However, comparatively the level of impact received the lowest evaluation by the respondents. This means that employees do not really feel that they can influence their work outcome. They might not feel that their work can affect the overall goal achievement and do not really believe that he/she can influence the strategic output, management and operation in the workplace. Therefore, the dimension of impact should be improved. Being self-determinant means for one that he or she is able to define alternatives and choose between them. The mean of self-determination is in the middle as important factor because it is about taking initiative and feeling competent and responsible about work. From Table 1 it is evident that the internal consistencies of the four subscales of the PEQ as well as the total scale are highly acceptable, compared to the guideline of 0.70 as set by Nunnally and Bernstein (1994). Factor analysis utilizing principal component method with varimax rotation was carried out and identified four factors that explained 73% of the variance. This means that a large part of variances was caused by the first four factors. Hence, this study supported Spreitzer’s (1992) theory that states that psychological empowerment is composed of four dimensions. 5.CONCLUSION This study proves the validity and reliability of the psychological empowerment scale (Spreitzer, 1992) in the work context of private higher education institutions. The aim of this study was to assess the construct validity and internal consistency of the PEQ for employees in selected organizations. The results show that the PEQ can be assumed invariant across a test and replication sample of employees in selected university in Macedonia. A four-factor model (including competence, meaning, impact and self-determination) of psychological empowerment fits the data best. The four subscales of the PEQ and the total scale show highly acceptable internal consistencies. The results of this study provide support for the construct validity of the PEQ in selected university. The conclusion of the present study is similar to those of other related empirical studies. Similar study is hoped to be carried out in a public university as well. Future research could also compare the level of psychological empowerment and innovative behavior of employees from private higher education institutions with those from public higher education institutions. Clearly, more research is needed to establish the predictive, convergent and discriminant validity of the PEQ. Larger sample sizes might provide increased confidence that study findings would be consistent across other (similar) groups. REFERENCES Blanchard, K., Carlos, J., & Randolph, A. 2001. Three keys to empowerment. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler. 46 246 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Brancato, V. (June, 2006). Enhancing psychological empowerment for nurses. The Pennsylvania Nurse. Pennsylvania Nurses Association. p. 31. Conger, J. A. & Kanungo, R. N. 1988. The empowerment process: Integrating theory and practice. Academy of Management Review, 13: 471-482. Corsun, D. & C. Enz (1999). Predicting psychological empowerment among service workers: The effect of support-based relationships. Human Relations, 52(2), 205-224. Eylon, D. & Bamberger, P. 2000. Empowerment cognitions and empowerment acts: Recognizing the importance of gender. Group and Organization Management, 25: 354-372. Hancer, M. & George, R. T. (2003). Psychological empowerment of non-supervisory employees working in full-service restaurants. Hospitality Management, 22: 3 -16. Lee, M. & Koh, J. (2001). Is empowerment really a new concept? International Journal of Human Resource Management, 12(4): 684-695. Liden, R.C., & Arad, 1996. A power perspective of empowerment and work groups: Implication for HRM research. In G.R. Ferris (Ed.), Research in personnel and HRM, vol. 14: 205-252. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. Menon S.T. (2001) Employee Empowerment An Integrative Psychological Approach, Applied Psychology An International Review, 50, (1), 153-180 Mills, P.K., & Ungson, G.R. 2003. Reassessing the limits of structural empowerment: Organizational constitution and trust as controls. Academy of Management Review, 28: 143153. Mishra, K., Mishra, A., & Spreitzer, G. 1998. Preserving employee morale during downsizing. Sloan Management Review, 39(2): 83-95. Nunnally, J.C., & Bernstein, I.H. (1994). Psychometric theory (3rd edn.). New York: McGraw-Hill. Peccei, R. & P. Rosenthal (2001). Delivering customer oriented behavior through empowerment: an empirical test of HRM assumptions. Journal of Management Studies, 38(6), 831-857. Pfeffer, J., Cialdini, R. B., Hanna, B., & Knopoff, K. 1998. Faith in Supervision and the SelfEnhancement Bias: Two Psychological Reasons Why Managers Don't Empower Workers. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 20: 313-321. Quinn, R.E., & Spreitzer, G.M. (1997). The road to empowerment: Seven questions every leader should consider. Organizational Dynamics, 26(2), 37–48. Seibert, S.E., Silver, S.R. & Randolph, W.A. 2004. Taking empowerment to the next level : A multiple-level model of empowerment, performance and satisfaction. Academy of Management Journal, 47(3): 332-349. Siegall, M., & Gardner, S. (2000). Contextual factors of psychological empowerment. Personnel Review, 29, 703–722. 247 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Spreitzer, G. M. (1992). When organizations dare: The dynamics of psychological empowerment in the workplace. UMI Microform Number 3011067. Ann Arbor: Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company Spreitzer, G. M. (1995a). An empirical test of a comprehensive model of intrapersonal empowerment in the workplace. American Journal of Community Psychology, 23 (5): 601629. Spreitzer, G. M. (1995b). Psychological empowerment in the workplace: Dimension, measurement, and validation. Academy of Management Journal, 38(5): 1442-1465. Spreitzer, G.M., & Mishra, A.K. 1997. Giving up control without losing control: Trust and its substitutes’ effects on managers’ involving employees in decision making. Group and Organization Management, 24(2): 155-187. Tabachnick, B.G., & Fidell, L.S. (2001). Using multivariate statistics (4th edn.). Boston: Allyn and Bacon. Thomas, K. W. & Velthouse, B. A. 1990. Cognitive elements of empowerment: An "interpretive" model of intrinsic task motivation. Academy of Management Review, 15: 666681. The Impact Of Information Technology On Human Resource Practices And Competencies Ömer Faruk Ünal1, Mehmet Mete2 1Süleyman Demirel University FEAS Social Work Department 2Dicle University FEAS Department of Management E-mails: omerunal@sdu.edu.tr, mehmetmete@hotmail.com Abstract Information Technology (IT) as a structural factor and instrument transforms architect of organizations, business processes and communication, and is increasingly integrated into human resource management (HRM). While IT has impacts on human resource (HR), at the same time managers, employees, customers and suppliers increase their expectancies for HR functions. The importance of knowledge and human capital make extra suppression on HR functions and new competencies for HR professionals are expected. In this research, the impacts of Information Technology (IT) on HR practices and competencies of HR professionals are studied. 248 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1121 Title A name given to the resource Empowerment At Higher Educational Organizations Author Author Şermin, Şenturan Abstract A summary of the resource. Empowerment is a concept which is widely used in management and many managers and professional in various organizations claim to be practicing it. The objective of this study was to assess the construct validity and internal consistency of the Psychological Empowerment Questionnaire (PEQ) for employees in higher education. The PEQ was administered at private university in Skopje. The study is empirical research on psychological empowerment, and more specifically research regarding a tool that can be used to assess the level of psychological empowerment of employees in higher education organisations. If psychological empowerment can be measured in a reliable and valid manner, interventions can be implemented to promote the empowerment of employees. Exploratory factor analysis is used to verify the validity of the psychological empowerment comprising four cognitive dimensions i.e. meaning, competence, self-determination and impact in the context of private higher education institutions The subscales showed acceptable internal consistencies. Psychological empowerment can be measured in a reliable and valid manner in higher educational organizations.Keywords: academia; psychological empowerment; employee; private higher education Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/3d4ff2b9b08ecbcac3130023fde0ccf6.pdf af9b6af30280b633dd9058cc742e0d22 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Elimination of Cr(VI) from aqueous solution by a new agro-waste material Şerife Parlayıcı, Erol Pehlivan Department of Chemical Engineering, Selcuk University, Campus, 42079 Konya, Turkey E-mail: erolpehlivan@gmail.com Abstract The efficiency of Wheat Straw (WS) and modified Wheat Straw (MWS) in removing Cr(VI) ions from aqueous solution was studied. Batch experiments were designed to obtain Cr(VI) ion sorption data. The influences of contact time, pH, adsorbent dose and initial chromium concentration on adsorption process performance was researched and an appropriate adsorption isotherm of Cr(VI) adsorption on (WS) and (MWS) was determined. The results of this study showed that adsorption of chromium by (RWS) and (MWS) reached to equilibrium after 120 min and after that a little change of chromium removal efficiency was observed. Higher Cr(VI) adsorption was observed at lower pH and maximum Cr(VI) concentration and lower adsorbent doses. The equilibrium sorption capacity of Cr(VI) ion after 120 min was 28.6 and 81.9 mg/g for (WS) and (MWS) respectively. The investigated adsorbents showed different adsorption capacities for Cr(VI) ions. Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms have been used to characterize observed biosorption phenomena of Cr(VI) ions on (MWS). The carboxyl groups on the surface of (MWS) were primarily responsible for the sorption of Cr(VI) ions. Keywords: Sorption; Cr(VI); Agricultural by-product; Citric acid 1.INTRODUCTION Environmental pollution and health by heavy metals is an important economic and environmental subject in many areas of the world (Köhler et al. 2007). Industrial wastes and domestic generated have been threating our aquatic environment. Significant amounts of toxic heavy metals in laden with debris are deposited into the natural aquatic ecosystems (Chen and Lim 2002). Chromium (Cr) is one of priority pollutants among heavy metals in surface water and groundwater cycle resulting from numerous industrial activities such as wood preservatives, textile dyeing, leather tanning, electroplating and metal plating operations. Cr(VI) containing wastewaters must be lowered to allowable limits before discharging into the environment ((Sonmez and Aksu 2002; Kobya, 2004). In recent years, increasing number of publications has been exhibited for the removal of heavy metals from aqueous medium by using adsorption techniques with different adsorbents (Chong and Volesky 1995; Chong and Volesky 1995). Studies reveal that various agricultural waste materials such as materials such as bark, hazelnut shells, peanut hulls, nuts, wood, soybean hulls, soybean straws, saw dust, walnut shells, osage orange etc. has been tried and the adsorption capacity of these natural by products and wastes could be enhanced by chemical modifications (Kobya 2004; Cimino et al. 2000; Hashem et al. 2005; Mohanty et al. 2005; Low et al. 2004; Marshall et al. 2001; Zhu et al. 2008; Raji and Anirudhan 1997; Sud et al. 2008; Altun and Pehlivan 2012; Pehlivan et al. 2012; Yu et al. 2001). The functional groups present in agricultural waste biomass such as acetamido, alcoholic, carbonyl, phenol, 36 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo amido, amino, sulphydryl groups etc. have affinity for chromium ions to form chelates. These groups have the affinity for Cr(VI) ion. The mechanism of adsorption process includes chemisorption, complexation, adsorption on surface, electrostatic attraction and ion exchange etc. (Sud et al. 2008). The purpose of this research was to gain a fundamental understanding of the chemical and physical phenomena associated with the binding of Cr(VI) ion to (WS) and (MWS) biosorbents. So a new group was substituted to (WS). The Cr(VI) ion retention on this adsorbent has been carried out batch wise where the influence of physico-chemical key parameters such as the solution pH, the initial metal concentration, contact time, and ionic strength has been considered. 2.Materials and methods 2.1.Materials (WS) was collected from vicinity of Konya-Turkey. Straws were ground with Retsch RM 100 model grinding machine. They were ground and sieved to obtain size of 100 µm. Before using raw straws, they were washed thoroughly with deionized water and dried in air oven at 100 °C for 24 h. All chemicals were of an analytical grade. Double distilled water was used to prepare all solutions throughout the experiments. Cr(VI) stock solution (from Merck) was prepared by dissolving K2Cr2O7 salt in double distilled water. Solutions of 0.01 M NaOH and HCl (from Merck) were used for pH adjustment. Experimental methods A series of standard Cr(VI) solution were prepared by appropriate dilution of the stock solution. A thermostated shaker of GFL 3033 model was used for adsorption experiments. The pH measurements were performed with Orion 900S2 Model pH meter. For Cr(VI) ion sorption studies, 40 mg WS was brought in contact with 25 mL of Cr(VI) solution using an orbital shaker at 25 C. After filtration, the filtrate was analyzed spectrophometrically for determining the Cr(VI) concentration in the solution phase. The remaining Cr(VI) ion in the solution was calculated by taking the difference of initial concentration and total Cr(VI) concentration in the filtrate. The concentrations of Cr(VI) ions in initial and final solutions were determined spectrophotometrically at 540 nm by UV-visible Spectrophotometer (Shimadzu UV-1700). For the determination of Cr(VI), its supernatant was separated from the reaction mixture and divided into two parts. In one part equilibrium concentration of the Cr(VI) was measured by adding 1,5 diphenyl carbazide as a complexing agent, whereas the second part was heated up to 130 C with KMnO4. 3. Results and discussion 3.1. Effect of solution initial pH on the Cr (VI) adsorption Earlier studies have shown that solution pH is an important parameter influencing the biosorption of Cr(VI) ions (Dönmez and Aksu 2002). Cr(VI) removal was investigated as a function of solution pH and the result is indicated in Figure 1. 37 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 100 Sorption (%) 75 Cr(VI) 50 Cr(III) 25 0 0 2 4 6 8 pH Figure 1. Effect of pH on the biosorption of Cr (VI) using (MWS). Biosorption conditions; initial concentration of Cr (VI): 2x10-3 mol/L, 0.1 g adsorbent, 40 mL of biosorption medium, temperature: 25 C, contact time: 120 min. As seen from this figure, the biosorption of Cr(VI) onto (WS) and (MWS) is strongly pHdependent. 82 % of the Cr(VI) adsorbed onto (MWS) from the solution when the optimum pH was around 2.0. There is a tendency to decrease in the removal when the solution pH is raised from 2.0 to 5.0 and thereafter the effect becomes negligible. Similar results were reported by other several workers (Sud et al. 2008). The decrease in the adsorption with the increase in solution pH may be ascribed to the decrease in electrostatic force of attraction between the adsorbent and the adsorbate. It has been verified that Cr(VI) can be easily reduced to Cr(III) in the presence of biosorbents and in acid media. Although the resarches on the chromium elimination by biosorption are numerous, few of them have analyzed the combined effect of the retention of Cr(VI) by the biosorbent and its reduction to Cr(III). There was sorption of Cr(VI) as well as Cr(III) during sorption of Cr(VI) on the surface of biosorbent. Reduction of Cr(VI) into Cr(III) is also clear from the aqueous chemistry of Cr(VI) at low pH value. The low pH also accelerates the redox reactions in aqueous and biosorbent phases, since the protons participate in these reactions. The mechanisms for the biosorption are: i) the reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) in presence of the biosorbent and in acid media. ii) the retention of the initially present Cr(VI) by the biosorbent, as well as of the Cr(III) formed during the reduction process (Sud et al. 2008). The decrease in Cr(VI) ion removal capacity (WS) and (MWS) at pH > 2.0 may be caused by hydrolysis accompanying by precipitation of metal hydroxides. This pH dependence of the binding showed that adsorption, chelation and electrostatic interactions were involved in the binding mechanism of Cr(VI) by (WS) and (MWS). Indeed, adsorption and chelation involving hydroxyl functions, close to carboxylated, may increase the binding level of Cr(VI) ions in addition to the electrostatic interactions taking place. It was confirmed that (WS) and (MWS) is dominated by negatively charged sites that are largely carboxylated groups with some weaker acidic groups. At pH values higher than 4, carboxyl groups are deprotonated and negatively charged. Consequently, the attraction of positively charged metal ions would be enhanced. At low pH, the surface of (WS) and (MWS) would also be surrounded by 38 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo hydronium ions, which decrease the Cr(VI) ion interaction with binding sites of the biosorbent by greater repulsive forces. 3.2. Effect of contact time 100 Sorption (%) 75 50 25 0 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 Contact Time(min) Figure 2. Effect of contact time on the sorption of Cr (VI) by (MWS). Biosorption conditions; initial concentration of Cr (VI): 2x10-3 mol/L, 0.1 g adsorbent, 40 mL of biosorption medium, temperature: 251C, pH 2.0. The effect of time on the adsorption of Cr(VI) ions by the (WS) and (MWS) was studied by taking 0.1 g sorbent with 40.0 ml of 0.001 M Cr(VI) solution in the plastic beakers. The beakers were shaken for different time intervals in a temperature-controlled shaker. Figure 2 showed the effect of contact time on adsorption of Cr(VI) ions using (MWS). The results showed that the percentage of Cr(VI) ion adsorption by (WS) and (MWS) increased with increasing time of equilibration and it reached the plateau value at about 120 min. 3.3. Effect of initial Cr(VI) concentration The Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms were both used to describe observed sorption phenomena of Cr(VI) on the biosorbents (Altun and Pehlivan 2012; Pehlivan et al. 2012; Yu et al. 2001). The Langmuir isotherm applies to adsorption on completely homogenous surfaces with negligible interaction between adsorbed molecules. For a single solute, it is given by the Freundlich model, which is an empirical model used to describe adsorption in aqueous systems, was also used to explain the observed phenomena of Cr(VI) biosorption on (MWS). The effect of sorbate concentration was shown in Figure 1. In the case of low Cr(VI) concentrations, the ratio of the initial number of moles of chromium ions to the available surface area was larger and subsequently the fractional biosorption became independent of initial concentrations. However, at higher concentrations, the available sites of adsorption became fewer, and hence the percentage removal of chromium ions depends upon the initial concentration. The amount of Cr(VI) ions adsorbed per unit mass of the (WS) and (MWS) 39 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo increased with the initial Cr(VI) concentration as expected. The sorption capacities was 28.6 and 81.9 mg/g for (WS) and (MWS) respectively. Table 1. Freundlich and Langmuir isotherm parameters of (MWS). Freundlich Isotherm a Langmuir Isotherm ka n R2 Kb As a R2 0.925 1.384 0.985 30.90 1.578 0.988 mmol/g dry adsorbent. The Langmuir model fitted well in the pH range 2.0. We found the Langmuir isotherm, to have the highest correlation coefficients of 0.988 for (MWS) (Table 1.). It was found that more than 82% removal of Cr(VI) was achieved using (MWS). Conclusion In this study, the toxic Cr(VI) ion biosorption on the inexpensive and efficient biosorbents from agricultural waste materials have been investigated as replacement strategy for existing conventional systems. The use of these low cost biosorbents is recommended since they are relatively cheap or of no cost, easily available, renewable and show highly affinity for Cr(VI) ions. Literature also reveals that in some cases the modification of the adsorbent increased the removal efficiency. (WS) both untreated and treated was effective in removal of Cr(VI) ion from aqueous solutions. Adsorption of Cr(VI) was dependent on its initial concentrations and pH of the Cr(VI) solution. The results indicate that the optimum pH for the removal of Cr(VI) ions by (WS) and (MWS) was around 2. Cr(VI) removal was built up; equilibrium conditions are attained after nearly 2 h. Isothermal data of Cr(VI) sorption on (MWS) can be modeled by Langmuir isotherm. The data in the linearized forms (Langmuir equation) gave satisfactory correlation coefficients for a part of the covered concentration range. REFERENCES Altun T., Pehlivan E. (2012) Removal of Cr(VI) from aqueous solutions by modified walnut shells. Food Chemistry, 132, 693–700. Chen J.P., Lim L.L. (2002) Key factors in chemical reduction by hydrazine for recovery of precious metals. Chemosphere 49, 363–370. Chong K.H., Volesky B. (1995) Description of two metal biosorption equilibria by Langmuirtype models. Biotechnology and Bioengineering 47, 451–460. Cimino G., Passerini A., Toscano G. (2000) Removal of toxic cations and Cr(VI) from aqueous solution by hazelnut shell. Water Research 34, 2955–2962. Dönmez G., Aksu Z. (2002) Removal of chromium(VI) from saline wastewaters by Dunaliella species. Process Biochemistry 38, 751–762. Hashem A., Abdel-Halim E.S., El-Tahlawy K.F., Hebeish A. (2005) Enhancement of adsorption of Co (II) and Ni (II) ions onto peanut hulls though esterification using citric acid. Adsorption Science and Technology 23, 367–380. 40 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kobya M. (2004) Adsorption, kinetic and equilibrium studies of Cr (VI) by hazelnut shell activated carbon. Adsorption Science and Technology 22, 51–64. Köhler S.J., Cubillas P., Rodríguez-Blanco J.D., Bauer C. and Prieto M. (2007) Removal of cadmium from wastewaters by aragonite shells and the influence of other divalent cations. Environmental Science & Technology 41, 112–118. Low K.S., Lee C.K., Mak S.M. (2004) Sorption of copper and lead by citric acid modified wood. Wood Science and Technology 38, 629–640. Marshall W.E., Chatters A.Z., Wartelle L.H., McAloon (2001) A., Optimization and estimated production cost of a citric acid-modified soybean hull ion exchanger. Industrial Crops and Products 14, 191–199. Marshall W.E. and Wartella L.H. (2003) Acid recycling to optimize citric acid-modified soybean hull production. Industrial Crops and Products 18, 177–182. Mohanty K., Jha M., Biswas M.N., Meikap B.C. (2005) Removal of chromium (VI) from dilute aqueous solutions by activated carbon developed from Terminalia Arjuna nuts activated with zinc chloride. Chemical Engineering Science 60, 3049–3059. Pehlivan E., Pehlivan E., Kahraman H. (2012) Hexavalent chromium removal by Osage Orange. Food Chemistry, (Accepted). Raji C. and Anirudhan T.S. (1997) Chromium (VI) adsorption by sawdust: kinetics and equilibrium. Indian Journal of Chemical Technology 4, 228–236. Sud D., Mahajan G., Kaur M.P. (2008) Agricultural waste material as potential adsorbent for sequestering heavy metal ions from aqueous solutions-a review. Bioresource Technology 99(14), 6017–6027. Yu B., Zhang Y., Shukla A., Shukla S.S., Dorris K.L. (2001) The removal of heavy metals from aqueous solution by saw dust adsorption. Removal of Pb(II) and comparison of its adsorption with copper. Journal of Hazardous Materials B84, 83–94. Zhu B., Fan T., Zhang D. (2008) Adsorption of copper ions from aqueous solution by citric acid modified soybean straw. Journal of Hazardous Materials 153, 300–308. Parasitic Diseases And Their Controls In Sustainable Development Of Aquculture Of Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus Thynnus) Erol Tokşen, Egemen Nemli,Uğur Değirmenci, Ulviye Karacalar Ege University, Fisheries Faculty, Department of Fish Diseases, Bornova 5100 İzmir, Turkey E-mails: erol.toksen@ege.edu.tr, egemen.nemli@ege.edu.tr, ugur.degirmenci@ege.edu.tr, ulviye.karacalar@ege.edu.tr Abstract In the last decades Turkish and Mediterranean mariculture has focused its production mainly on two species, gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata L.) and sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.). 41 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1224 Title A name given to the resource Elimination of Cr(VI) from aqueous solution by a new agro-waste material Author Author Şerife , Parlayıcı Abstract A summary of the resource. The efficiency of Wheat Straw (WS) and modified Wheat Straw (MWS) in removing Cr(VI) ions from aqueous solution was studied. Batch experiments were designed to obtain Cr(VI) ion sorption data. The influences of contact time, pH, adsorbent dose and initial chromium concentration on adsorption process performance was researched and an appropriate adsorption isotherm of Cr(VI) adsorption on (WS) and (MWS) was determined. The results of this study showed that adsorption of chromium by (RWS) and (MWS) reached to equilibrium after 120 min and after that a little change of chromium removal efficiency was observed. Higher Cr(VI) adsorption was observed at lower pH and maximum Cr(VI) concentration and lower adsorbent doses. The equilibrium sorption capacity of Cr(VI) ion after 120 min was 28.6 and 81.9 mg/g for (WS) and (MWS) respectively. The investigated adsorbents showed different adsorption capacities for Cr(VI) ions. Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms have been used to characterize observed biosorption phenomena of Cr(VI) ions on (MWS). The carboxyl groups on the surface of (MWS) were primarily responsible for the sorption of Cr(VI) ions. Keywords: Sorption; Cr(VI); Agricultural by-product; Citric acid Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed S Agriculture (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d009b2143442732caeaf9cbef052e632.pdf d932cb6490a78c21d8b017dc11d573b0 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A Reexamination Of Causal Nexus Between Economic Growth And Renewable Enegy Consumption For Us: Further Evidence From Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test Şenay Saraç, Ertugrul Yıldırım Bulent Ecevit University, Department of Economics, Zonguldak, Turkey. E-mails: senaysarac@hotmail.com, yildirimertugrul@hotmail.com Abstract Recent debates about renewable energy consumption manifest two main expectations. Firstly, renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and secondly, it should not cause a damage on environment. This study focuses on the first issue by applying bootstrap-corrected causality test for the US since empirical literature criticizes the TodaYamamoto test which bases on asymptotic distribution. The models consist of real GDP, employment, investment and kinds of renewable energy consumption. Only one causal relationship was found from biomass-waste-drived energy consumption to real GDP. No causal relationship was found between real GDP and all of the other renewable energy kinds – total renewable energy consumption, geothermal energy consumption, hydro-electric energy consumption, biomass energy consumption and biomass-wood-drived energy consumption. That is using of energy from waste cause not only solving the dumping problems but also it contributes to real GDP. For policy purpose, the results of this study suggest that countries should concentrate on energy producing from waste as an alternative energy resource. Keywords: Sustainable development, Economic growth, Renewable energy consumption, US. JEL: O13, Q42, O51 1. INTRODUCTION Sustainable development can be defined as: “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. Many factors can contribute to achieving sustainable development goal. One of the most important factors is the sustainable supply of energy resources (Rosen, 1996; Dincer and Rosen, 1998; Dincer, 1999). A secure supply of energy resources is a necessary condition but not sufficient requirement for sustainable development within an economic society. Furthermore, sustainable development needs a sustainable supply of energy resources and an effective and efficient utilization of energy resources. In this context, renewable energy is one of the crucial elements for sustainable development. A number of factors lead to increase attention on renewable energy sources such as the volatility of oil prices, the dependency on foreign energy sources, and the environmental consequences of carbon emissions and government policies that promote renewable energy production (Bowden and Payne, 2010; Apergis and Payne, 2010a). Recent debates about renewable energy consumption manifest two main expectations. Firstly, renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and the secondly, it should not cause a damage on environment. This study focuses on first issue. There are four hypotheses about causal nexus between economic growth and energy consumption. According to the growth hypothesis energy consumption contributes to economic growth both 9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo directly and/or indirectly by complementing to labor and capital in the production process. Validity of the growth hypothesis implies that energy conservation policies could reduce real GDP. The conservation hypothesis implies that energy conservation policies would not reduce real GDP. Achieving unidirectional Granger-causality from real GDP to energy consumption supports the conservation hypothesis. Interdependent causal nexus between energy consumption and real GDP is suggested by the feedback hypothesis. It is supported by the validity of bidirectional Granger-causality between energy consumption and real GDP. Finally, the neutrality hypothesis proposes that energy consumption serves a relatively minor role in the determination of real GDP while energy conservation policies would not reduce real GDP. The absence of Granger-causality between energy consumption and real GDP supports the neutrality hypothesis. Ozturk (2010) reviews the literature about energy consumption-economic growth nexus. Empirical evidence about causal nexus between energy consumption and real GDP are mixed. Furthermore very few studies investigate the relationship between renewable energy consumption and real GDP. Table 1 summarizes empirical literature about renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus. Table 1: Literature review: Renewable energy consumption and Economic Growth Study Sari and (2004) Methodology Soytas Period Subject Relationship Variance decomposition 1969-1999 Turkey REC increases GDP Ewing et al. (2007) Variance decomposition 2000:12005:6 US REC increases IP Sari et al. (2008) ARDL 2000:12005:6 US IP→REC Sadorsky (2009) Panel Cointegration 1994-2003 18 emerging countries GDP→REC Apergis and Payne (2010a) Panel Cointegration 1985-2005 20 OECD countries GDP↔REC Apergis and Payne (2010b) Panel Cointegration 1992–2007 13 countries Eurasia GDP↔REC Payne (2009) Toda-Yamamoto 1949-2006 US GDP≠REC Bowden and Payne (2010) Toda-Yamamoto 1949-2006 US (sectoral level) GDP↔REC within Note: Abbreviations are defined as follows: REC= renewable energy consumption, GDP=real gross domestic product, IP=industrial production. EC→GDP means that the causality runs from energy consumption to growth. GDP→EC means that the causality runs from growth to energy consumption. EC↔GDP means that bidirectional causality exists between energy consumption and growth. EC≠GDP means that no causality exists between energy consumption and growth. Only Payne (2009) and Bowden and Payne (2010) use Toda-Yamamoto causality test. But Toda-Yamamoto test which bases upon lag-augmented VAR model has assumption of the normality of the error term. Hacker and Hatemi (2006) indicate that if the error term of the model is characterized by non-normality, asymptotic distribution can be poor approximation. In this case findings of Toda-Yamamoto test are invalid. 10 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The contribution of our empirical study is threefold. First this study uses a multivariate causality test by including employment and investment variables into the model between renewable energy consumption and real GDP since the omission of relevant variables leads to econometric problems. Second, this study employs bootstrap-corrected causality technique suggested by Hacker and Hatemi (2006) to avoid unclear results due to the assumption of normality and the third one is to pick the true lag order by combining Schwarz (1978) Bayesian information criterion and the Hannan and Quinn (1979) information criterion as suggested by Hatemi (2003). The rest of the paper is organized as follows: The next section describes the data, methodology and the results from empirical analysis are presented in third section. Section four presents conclusion and policy implications of the paper. 2. Data Employment, real gross fixed capital formation and real GDP variables are taken from OECD National Accounts data that is attained from source OECD data base and time series of renewable energy consumption variables are obtained from the US Energy Information Administration as billion Btu. Tim span of the renewable energy consumption variables are as follows: 1949-2010 for total renewable energy consumption, biomass energy consumption, hydropower energy consumption and biomass-wood-drived energy consumption, 1960-2010 for geothermal energy consumption and 1970-2010 for biomass-waste-drived energy consumption. 3. Methodology and Results Toda-Yamamoto augmented VAR(p+d) model can be described in the following a compact way (Hacker and Hatemi-J, 2006): K  FZ  . (1) Where: K  ( x1 , F  (v, A1 , , Ap , , xT )(n  T ) matrix, , Ap d )(n  (1  n( p  d ))) matrix,  1   x  t    xt 1    Z t   .  ((1  n( p  d )) 1) matrix, for t=1,...,T,  .     .  x   t  p  d 1  matrix, Z  (Z0 , , ZT 1 )((1  n( p  d ))  T ) matrix,   (1 , , T )(n  T ) matrix, Toda and Yamamoto (1995) introduce the following modified Wald (MWALD) test statistic for testing the null hypothesis of non-Granger causality: 11 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo MWALD  (Y ) Y  ( Z Z ) 1  VU  Y  1 (Y ) ~  P2 . (2) Where: The MWALD test statistic is asymptotically χ2 distributed, conditional on the assumption that the error terms are normally distributed, with the number of degrees of freedom equal to the number of restrictions to be tested. According to Toda and Yamamoto (1995), their function (Eq.2) guarantees the use of asymptotical distribution theory. However, using Monte Carlo simulations Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) showed that the MWALD test statistic over rejects the null hypothesis, especially if the error term is characterized by autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and non-normality. Furthermore, Hacker and Hatemi-J urged that the asymptotic distribution can be a poor approximation, especially for the small samples that are common in empirical studies. Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) found that the bootstrapped empirical size for the modified Wald test is close to the correct size in the different cases when the extra lags are greater than or equal to the integration order of both variables, and it is generally closer to the correct size than the asymptotic distribution empirical size. To perform the bootstrap simulations, firstly regression (Eq. 1) is estimated with the null hypothesis of no Granger causality. For each bootstrap simulation it is generated the simulated data, K*. K *  FˆZ   * (3) where F̂ is the estimated value of the parameters in Eq. (1). That is. Fˆ  KZ (ZZ )1 The bootstrap residuals (Ψ*) are based on T random draws with replacement from the regression’s modified residuals, each with equal probability of 1/T. The mean of the resulting set of drawn modified residuals is subtracted from each of the modified residuals in that set. The modified residuals are the regression’s raw residuals modified to have constant variance, through the use of leverages. Eq.(4) defines the modified residual through leverage adjustment for xit.  itm  (4)  it 1  hit In order to calculate the bootstrap critical values, the bootstrap simulation is run 100,000 times and calculated the MWALD test statistic each time. In this way, it is able to produce the empirical distribution for the MWALD test statistic. The analyses consist of three stage, In the first stage, to ensure robustness for the common components of the variables, we use several unit root tests, including the augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) (ADF) test, the Phillips and Perron (1988) (PP) test, as well as the 12 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Kwiatkowski et al. (1992) (KPPS) test. According to our results, not represented here, the common components of the all variables turn out to be integrated of order one, I(1). The next step is to pick optimal lag order. Two of the most successful criteria according to the simulation results presented in the literature are Schwarz (1978) Bayesian information criterion (SBC) and the Hannan and Quinn (1979) information criterion (HQC). However, the earlier studies illustrate that each of these two different criteria can perform better than the other depending on the properties of the true VAR model. Hatemi-J Criteria (HJC), displayed in Table 2, is employed to pick true lag order which is suggested by Hatemi-J (2003). Table 3: Selection of Lag Length Models Model 1:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Total REC AIC SBC 2 1 HQC 2 HJC 2 Model 2:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Biomass Total EC 2 2 2 2 -25.2568 -17.6647 -18.3052 -17.9066 Model 3:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+ Hydropower EC 2 1 2 2 -25.7735 -18.0247 -18.8220 -18.4233 Model 4:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Biomass Wooddrived EC Model 5:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Biomass Wastedrived EC Model 6:Real GDP=Employment+Investment+Geothermal EC -24.2653 -16.6757 -17.3138 -16.9152 2 2 2 2 -26.1630 -18.4142 -19.2114 -18.8128 2 2 6 2 -21.4469 -14.8194 -16.5588 -15.3432 2 2 2 2 -23.0602 -15.6311 Note: Abbreviations are defined as follows: AIC=Akaike information criteria, SBC=-16.5377 Schwarz -16.0844 Bayesian information criteria, HQC=Hannan-Quinn information criteria, HJC=Hatemi-J information criteria, REC=Renewable energy consumption and EC= Energy consumption. First number is selected lag length and second one is min test stats of relevant criteria. Note: Abbreviations are defined as follows: AIC=Akaike information criteria, SBC= Schwarz Bayesian information criteria, HQC=Hannan-Quinn information criteria, HJC=Hatemi-J information criteria, REC=Renewable energy consumption and EC= Energy consumption. First number is selected lag length and second one is min test stats of relevant criteria. In the last step bootstrap-corrected causality test was applied. Table 4 illustrates the MWALD stats and critical values. Table 4: Causality Test Results H0: REC does not Granger cause GDP H0: GDP does not Granger cause REC MWALD %1 CV %5 CV %10 CV MWALD %1 CV %5 CV %10 CV Model 1 0.069 10.505 6.590 4.974 2.288 10.727 6.764 5.087 Model 2 2.226 11.078 6.833 5.162 1.602 10.847 6.764 5.108 Model 3 0.966 10.272 6.447 4.915 1.261 10.754 6.758 5.090 Model 4 1.637 10.610 6.623 4.996 1.684 10.965 6.839 5.181 Model 5 12.422* 11.681 6.969 5.160 4.482 11.872 7.003 5.186 Model 6 1.228 11.064 6.871 5.148 0.332 11.603 6.994 5.255 13 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Note: * represents rejection of null hypothesis at 1% significance level. REC=Renewable energy consumption. For definitions of the models see Table 3. According to Table 4 only one causal relationship was found from biomass-waste-drived energy consumption to real GDP. This finding supports the growth hypothesis. No causal relationship was found between all of the other renewable energy kinds and real GDP. All of the findings, except for biomass-waste-drived energy consumption, support the neutrality hypothesis. 4.CONCLUSION Recent debates about relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth manifest two main expectations. Firstly, renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and secondly, it should not cause a damage on environment. This study focuses on the first issue by applying bootstrap-corrected causality test for the US since empirical literature criticizes the Toda-Yamamoto test which bases on asymptotic distribution. According to bootstrap-corrected causality test results only one causal relationship was found from biomass-waste-drived energy consumption to real GDP. No causal relationship was found between all of the other renewable energy kinds and real GDP. These findings are interesting since biomass-waste-drived energy consumption has a low percentage (6%) of total renewable energy consumption. Many developed countries are trying to dump their garbage on the lands of lesser developed countries. However dumping garbage on other places spreads pollutions and diseases instead of solving the problem. In fact it is more dangerous to dump garbage in the less developed countries since there are neither technologies available to process it nor enough awareness. Even creating landfills wastes precious resources. Lastly our findings indicate that there is a causality from waste-drived energy to real GDP. Using of energy from waste cause not only to resolve the dumping problems but also it contributes to real GDP. The countries that are using other energy resources do not take advantage from using waste-drived energy. For policy purpose, the results of this study suggest that countries should concentrate on energy producing from waste as an alternative energy resource. REFERENCES Akaike, H. (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19 (6), 716-723. Apergis, N. and Payne J.E. (2010a) Renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of OECD countries, Energy Policy, 38, 656-660. Apergis, N. and Payne J.E. (2010b) Renewable enrgy consumption and growth in Eurosia, Energy Economics, 32, 1392-1397. Bowden, N. and Payne, J.E. (2010) Sectoral Analysis of the Causal Relationship Between Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Real Output in the US, Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 5:4, 400-408. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller W.A. (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. Dincer, I. (1999) Environmental impacts of energy, Energy Policy, 27, 845-854. 14 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dincer, I. and Rosen M.A. (1998) A worldwide perspective on energy, environment and sustainable development, International Journal of Energy Research, 15, 1305-1321. Ewing, B.T., Sari, R. and Soytas U. (2007) Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States, Energy Policy, 35, 1274–1281. Hacker, R.S. and Hatemi-J A. (2006) Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application, Applied Economics, 38, 1489500. Hannan, E. J. and Quinn B.G. (1979) The determination of the order of an autoregressive, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 41, 190-195. Hatemi-J, A. (2003) A new method to choose optimal lag order in stable and unstable VAR models, Applied Economics Letters, 10, 135-137. Kwiatkowski D., Phillips P.C.B., Schmidt P. and Shin. Y. (1992) Testing for the null of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178. Ozturk, I. (2010) A literatüre survey on energy-growth nexus, Energy Policy, 38, 340-349. Payne, J.E. (2009) On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US, Applied Energy, 86, 575–577. Phillips, P.C. and Perron P. (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75, 335-346. Rosen, M.A. (1996) The role of energy efficiency in sustainable development, Technology and Society, 15(4), 21-26. Sadorsky, P. (2009) Renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies, Energy Policy, 37, 4021-4028. Sarı, R. and Soytas U. (2004) Disaggregate energy consumption, employment, and income in Turkey, Energy Economics, 26, 335–344. Sarı, R., Ewing, B.T. and Soytas, U. (2008) The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: an ARDL approach, Energy Economics, 30, 2302–2313. Schwarz, G. (1978), Estimating the dimension of a model, Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464. Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto T. (1995), Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250. An Analysis of Theories on Stock Returns Ahmet Sekreter Abstract Objective in writing this article is to provide an overview of the theories that has been developed for stock returns which is an important area of financial markets’ researches. Since the researches in this field are very active for the past quarter, it is not possible to describe all works that has been done in this area. Most important researches will be discussed without going deeper in mathematical tools and theories. 15 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1307 Title A name given to the resource A Reexamination Of Causal Nexus Between Economic Growth And Renewable Enegy Consumption For Us: Further Evidence From Bootstrap-Corrected Causality Test Author Author Şenay , Saraç Abstract A summary of the resource. Recent debates about renewable energy consumption manifest two main expectations. Firstly, renewable energy consumption should contribute to economic growth and secondly, it should not cause a damage on environment. This study focuses on the first issue by applying bootstrap-corrected causality test for the US since empirical literature criticizes the Toda- Yamamoto test which bases on asymptotic distribution. The models consist of real GDP, employment, investment and kinds of renewable energy consumption. Only one causal relationship was found from biomass-waste-drived energy consumption to real GDP. No causal relationship was found between real GDP and all of the other renewable energy kinds – total renewable energy consumption, geothermal energy consumption, hydro-electric energy consumption, biomass energy consumption and biomass-wood-drived energy consumption. That is using of energy from waste cause not only solving the dumping problems but also it contributes to real GDP. For policy purpose, the results of this study suggest that countries should concentrate on energy producing from waste as an alternative energy resource. Keywords: Sustainable development, Economic growth, Renewable energy consumption, US. JEL: O13, Q42, O51 Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/1c7a4cf680002d8d74e96587d814508c.pdf 2554506ae90ad61bb77b70778c9c8cab PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dependence, Cambridge University Working Paper, 0346. Sun, H. (1996) Direct Foreign Investment and Linkage Effects: the Experience of China, Asian Economies, 25(1): 5-28. Sun, H. (1998) Macroeconomic Impact of Direct Foreign Investment in China: 1979-1996, The World Economy, 21(5): 675-694. Taylor, M. & Sarno L. (1998) The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period, Journal of International Economics, 46: 281-312. UNCTAD-WIR (1999) Indirect Impact: Does FDI “Crowd out” or “Crowd in” Domestic Investment? New York and Geneva. UNCTAD-WIR (2011) Non-Equity Modes of International Production and Development, Switzerland. Van, L. F. (1977) The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Investment in Canada, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 59: 474 481. World Bank, (1999) World Development Report, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Women’s Role In Economic Development: From Classical Approach To The Present İşler Ruhan Şentürk Canan Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey E-mails: ruhanisler@hotmail.com,canansenturk@sdu.edu.tr Abstract The aim of this study is to examine women’s role in economic development from a historical perspective. Many classical economists considered women to be irrational as economic agents. They took it for granted that women were paid less than men. Feminist economists criticise traditional-neoclassical economics claiming that conceptual basis for the mainstream economic knowledge is gender discrimination and women’s experiences are not reflected in economics. For this reason, they suggest that economic horizon be broadened by reviewing and questioning economics, including women’s perspective. Towards the end of the 1980s, the concept of human development was improved and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) started working under the name of Human Development Index (HDI) in order to measure the development levels of countries. In the same way, studies on the elimination of gender-related inequality that is one of the new dimensions of development concept were started by UNDP. In this context, Gender-Related Development Index (GDI) was developed. Furthermore, Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) has been emerged to measure the distribution and participation of women in the 104 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo economic and political life. In recent years, The World Bank has shifted its focus from structural adjustment to poverty reduction. The growing interest to the problems of gender and women has been an important part of this process. When gender inequality is not taken into consideration, economic growth and development cannot be handled effectively, because poverty leads to gender inequality and gender inequality negatively affects economic development. Considered as a human capital, human factor is a fundamental determinant of economic development. In this context, the major target of economic development is to improve life standards and to provide equal opportunities in health, education, employment for everybody without gender discrimination. Women should be involved in the current economic development plans, programs and projects with the help of the government policy. Keywords: Gender, Feminist Economics, Economic Development, Gender İnequality, Women’s Studies. 1.INTRODUCTION The period, when the term "development" began to be widely used, is known as the period after the World War II. However, it was possible to come across some points related to the issue in the science of economics before this period. The process, which Adam Smith, with the term "natural progress of opulance" (Smith, 1776:459) and John Stuart Mill, with the term "economical progress" (Mill, 1902) have tried to define, may be basically identified with the development. The process, introduced by the concept of development, has a history spanning centuries. The Industrial Revolution and the great change brought by this revolution has the highest priority and the most important role in this historical process that may be basically identified with the capitalist development. For those nations outside the Industrial Revolution, "Westernization", "industrilization" and "modernization" have turned out to be the main objective for attaining the tangible process, gained by the Western civilization, under various names and these names have been used synonymously with the terms progress/development (Yumuş, 2011:9,10). Up until the 1970s, an increase in Real Gross National Product (GNP) and the national income per capita were the main indicators used to measure the economic development. However, with the the definition of the economic development after the economic crisis in 1970s, the criteria used in the measurement of the economic development started to be questioned. With these improvements, the development has been mostly perceived from a human perspective and the improvement of man's life standard has come into prominence (Memmedova, 2000). Although the development discipline produced its unique literature after the World War II, the role and place of the women have been neglected for a long time and they have not been given due importance in mentioned development processes. Considering that women make up the half of world's population in all periods of the history, the role of women in economic and social life should not be neglected. The fact that gender equality is both a fundamental principle of democracy and one of the requirements for sustainable development is well known. From this point of view, the role and significance of women both in social welfare policies and in development plans and policies should be questioned. 105 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In this context, firstly, the theoretical approaches on the "development and women" will be evaluated from a historical perspective, then some assesments will be made related to "the development and women in international institutions and processes". 2.Theoretical Approaches to Development and Women The role and place of women have been neglected for a long time and women have not been given due importance. The place of women in the development process was first introduced by Ester Boserup in 1970 (Palaz, 2005:316,317). This section of the study, in a historical line, analyzes" the role of women in economy" before the creation of development literature and "the role of women in development" after the creation of this literature. In this context, the Classics' view of women, Neo-classical view, Boserup's view of women in development and feminist economists' views are reviewed respectively. Most of the classical economists are skeptical about women's rational decision-making capacities. Pujol (1992) states that it could be inferred from Adam's Smith's work The Wealth of Nations (1776) that "women are relatively invisible in the The Wealth of Nations, aside from their obvious role in contributing to population growth". To Bodkin (1999:46,47), it can be understood from the same work that women have limited roles in market economy, moreover, it is their parents and relatives who decide on their education because “Smith does not trust the young women to choose their subjects of study wisely” For this reason, they are deprived of the opportunity to learn the intellectual issues as their career choices are limited. Jean Baptise Say argues that women are irrational consumers. He exemplifies this issue with women's being extravagant towards expensive jewelry (Bodkin, 1999:55). Say, in his work Olbie, states that women's natural wage is lower than that of men, because it is men who must support a family while women support only themselves (Forget, 1997:109). Pujol (1995) argues that the classical school, as well as some neo-classical successors- Jevons, Edgeworth, Marshall and Pigou- accept women as "irrational" and "unfit as economic agents". Considered to be among the neo-classical economists and the father of the welfare economy, Pigou, has argued that women are weaker and more imperfect than men and thus welfare may be maximized by keeping women's salaries lower than that of men's (Pujol,1992:151). The Neo-classical point of view suggests that the elimination of the inequality between men and women and women's full participation in the economy may only be realized with development and industrialization. It states that the main reason why women cannot equally benefit from the development and why their participation in economic and social life is not realized is the differences men and women have in human capital equipments, such as education and work experience (Palaz, 2005:317). Ester Boserup, in Woman’s Role in Economic Development (1970), emphasizes that women do not benefit from development opportunities as much as men and new technologies provided by development programs deteriorate women's status (Palaz, 2005:318). The main issue of women in development is their incorporation into the existing economic development plans, programs and projects. If women are fully integrated into development plans and projects and take active roles, they will benefit more from the opportunities of the development. In this context, as suggested by Neo-classical view, it is considered that women may equally benefit from the economic development with certain state interventions and policy practices rather than assuming that the case of women could be improved with economic development (Lansky, 2000). 106 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The feminist economics does not review and question the "woman in economy", but rather it reviews and questions the economy including women's point of view. This questioning leads to the development of new economic methods, theories and policies and thus to the expansion of the horizons of economics. This questioning is realized with the principle "different but equal" (Eroğlu and İşler, 2006:69,70). At the same time, this review will also contribute to the development of women's economic conditions. Feminist economists criticise the view based on the Cartesian philosophy according to which women perceive the model person in theories of traditional economists as man, because women occupy the subordinate position and in this context they cannot reflect their women experiences on the science of economics. Therefore, they suggest that conceptual foundations of economic knowledge are produced and reproduced on gender bias (Eroğlu and İşler, 2006:108). In this context, the feminist economists suggest that the reason behind women's subordination to men in a society and their not being fully integrated into the social and economic life is the "patriarchal-man" system. Thus, they assert that all the instutional barriers against women should be eliminated and women should be empowered and actively participate in development plans and projects. Although they accept that general economic developments and improvements have positive effects on women, they point out that these effects may be very complex and may not always improve the case of women (Forsythe et al., 2000). The goal here is to provide women with the access to necessary knowledge, skills and resources, giving them the opportunity to develop themselves and play an active role in development plans (Palaz, 2005:318,319). 3.Development and Women in International Institutions and Processes Previously, the development programs saw women as objects rather than economic actors, for this reason, they were only interested in producer roles. However, it was only when the economic value of the child was understood that the necessity for reducing the expenditures on preventive measures against pregnancy in population programs and increasing their revenues was supported (Tinker, 1997:38; Ertürk, 1996:349). In this context, The United Nations sought ways to improve women's education, feeding and status. The fact that women could not fully participate in the development was called as "waste of human resources". Women were characterized as resources and the belief that their contributions would accelerate the development process and make it more effective became dominant. Indeed, in " Strategy for The Second Development Decade", the importance of promoting women's the International Development organization in the "total development" was emphasized ( Yavuz and Serdaroğlu, 2010:54). The group of Society for International Development (SID) - Women in Development (WID) created a five-page bibliography on the subject and it was at this stage that Boserup's book was discovered (Tinker, 1997:33). The book of E. Boserup, a liberal feminist, is the first study to analyze the differing effect of sex/gender division of labor and development and modernization on "gender" on the basis of data and evidence. Boserup’s study examines the effect of the development projects on the Third World Countries' women. The writer states that most of these projects neglected women and many of these technologically sophisticated projects impeded women's economic interests and independence (Yavuz and Serdaroğlu, 2010:54-57). The First World Conference on Women was held by The UN Commission on the Status of Women in Mexico City in1975 and the decade between the years of 1975 and 1985 was declared as the "United Nations Decade for Women" by the General Assembly of the United Nations. The main theme of the "United Nations Decade for Women" was identified in the 107 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo framework of determining and reaching the goals of "Equality, Development and Peace”; improving women's status on national; regional and international levels; preventing gender/sex discrimination against women; providing the equal opportunities for women to participate in the production and benefit equally from the development opportunities. The “Action Plan", determining the measures for the improvement of women's status, was accepted in the Second World Conference on Women, held in Copenhagen, in 1980. Short after the Second World Conference on Women, Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) was accepted and opened for signature by parties to CEDAW. The Third World Conference on Women was held in Nairobi in 1985 and farreaching strategies were determined for the improvement of women's status after a general evaluation of the "United Nations Decade for Women" (Palaz, 2005:319,320). The Fourth World Conference on Women held in Beijing, in 1995, demanded the recognition of women's rights as human rights. After the First World Conference on Women, many governments set up offices to deal with women's problems. International aid agencies began to employ a large number of WID specialists in order to prove their commitment to the improvement of women's status. "WID" conceptualization was first used by Boserup, to draw the attention of American policy makers and by SID Committee of Women as part of the strategy to bring the evidence produced by others. A set of common concerns branded as "Women in Development" in a flexible way or as "WID" began to be explicitly stated by the American liberal feminists advocating the administrative and legal changes that would lead the women in development agencies to have more chances to get professional employement and provide them with the chance to be integrated into economic systems in a better way. Criticisms on the Western capitalism, modernization and based on them WID shaped the ‘Women and Development’ (WAD) apporach, whose intellectual foundations lie in Marxist Feminism and the Dependency Theory. (Yavuz and Serdaroğlu, 2010:56-65). In addition to WID and WAD, many different approaches appeared on the agenda with regard to development-women relationship:‘Development Alternatives with Women for a New Era’ (DAWN); ‘Gender and Development’ (GAD); ‘Women, Culture and Development (WCD). İn the frame of development-women relationship in 1990s, the theme of "empowerment" as well as the theme of "environment" gained popularity. In the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) meetings in 1992, DAWN, on the development and environment, pointed out its view on " taking into consideration the local experiences related to ecological problems for the sustainability of life at the level of basic needs" of poor women in the South. The local inspection of the "sustainable development" was one of its demands. DAWN suggested that they had the best information on the local environment problems, faced by the poor and women in the South, and their solutions. This was the basis for women's demands to participate in environmental decision-making and management process (Yavuz and Serdaroğlu, 2010:83,84). In 1990s, organized women groups kept the governments and other agencies under constant pressure for them to take women's concerns into consideration. Activists, feminist thinkers and academicians were warned to enforce the link between theory and practice and to revise their theories. Although some shifts were observed in rhetoric and practice, WID remained to be the dominant approach for the governments, aid and development agencies-UN agencies and NGOs- (Connelly et al., 2000:63,64). As Erturk (1996:348) has stated, the reasons underlying these developments can be expressed in three ways:the first one is the far-reaching effect of women's movements in Western 108 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo countries, the second one is the East-West polarization and the third one is the Third World radicalism and the paradigmatic change that leads to the search for egalitarian policies by questioning the current economic development models (Palaz, 2005:322). Kuiper and Barker (2006) emphasize that “the past decade has witnessed a paradigm shift at the World Bank from a focus on structural adjustment to a focus on poverty reduction. As evidenced by the Bank’s 2001 report, Engendering Development: Through Gender Equality in Rights, Resources, and Voice, an increased attention to gender issues has been an important part of this process. The premise of the report is that economic growth and development cannot be effectively addressed when gender inequality is not taken into account, because poverty increases gender inequalities and gender inequalities hinder economic development.” The writers (Barker and Kuiper, 2006:1) also point out the positive changes in its theory, policy and approaches related to the conditions of WB’s programmes and loans which are now determined in cooperation with local groups and non-governmental organizations. Previously, it was economists in Washington who were decision-makers only. After the 1990’s gender and women’ issues became one of the focuses of the Bank. 4.CONCLUSION Since the publication of Ester Boserup's 1970 book, Woman’s Role in Economic Development, this field has moved from corrective focus to a broader framework of gender differences. Development is likely to improve social indicators and minimizes the gender gap through education. In addtition to significant correlations between national income growths and reduction in child mortality, reduction in male-female education gap, increase in all education levels and in women education level, there is a close correlation between women education and political and civil liberties index as well. However, besides these positive effects, it is worth noting findings about the economic development that affects the share of both the power and income sources between sex and systematically develops men's life more than women's, leading to the enforcement of men's control over the means of production. For instance, even though the living standard of women increases, their decision-making power and status may decrease when structural, technical and institutional changes in rural economies are taken into consideration (Jacobsen, 2007:386-388). Women still suffer from inequalities. Their access to such resources as land, credit, training is limited. Despite their great contribution to different spheres of life-care-givers in the household and community sectors and workers, knowledge-providers, and entrepreneurs-, they are unable to get what they deserve (Williams, 2006:227). The human factor is the main determinant of economic development. Human capital theory emphasizes the importance of investments made in human. Therefore, providing equal opportunities in health, education and income to everyone, without discrimination between men and women, and increasing their living standards should be the main objective of development. REFERENCES Barker, D.K. and Kuiper, E. (2006) “Feminist Economics and the World Bank” in E. Kuiper and D. K. Barker (eds.) Feminist Economics And The World Bank -History, Theory and Policy, Routledge, New York. 109 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Bodkin, R.G. (1999) Women’s Agency in Classıcal Economıc Thought: Adam Smith, Harriet Taylor Mill, and J. S. Mıll, Feminist Economics, 5(1), s.45-60. Boserup, E.(1970) Woman’s Role in Economic Development, London:George Allen &Unwin. Connelly, M.P., LI, T.M., Mac Donald, M., Parpart, J. L. (2000) “Feminism and Development:Theoretical Perspectives” in J. L. Parpart, M.P. Connelly, V.E. Barriteau (eds.) Theoretical Perspectives on Gender and Development, IDRC Books, Ottawa. Eroğlu Ö.and İşler R. (2006) İktisat Düşüncesinde Farklı Bir Bakış:Feminist İktisat, Asil Yayın Dağıtım Ltd.Şti., Ankara. Ertürk, Y. (1996) Alternatif kalkınma stratejileri: Toplumsal cinsiyet, kadın ve eşitlik, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 23 (3), 341-356. Forget, E.L. (1997) The Market For Virtue: Jean- Baptiste Say On Women in The Economy and Society, Feminist Economics, 3(1), 95-111. Forsythe N., Patricio R., and Durrant V. (2000) Gender Inequalities and Economic Growth:A Longitudinal Evaluation, Economic Development and Cultural Change,48(3),573-618. Jacobsen, J.P. (2007) The Economics of Gender, Third Edition, Blackwell Publishing, USA. Kuiper, E. and Barker, D.K. (2006) Feminist Economics And The World Bank -History, Theory and Policy, Routledge, New York. Lansky, K. (2000) Gender, Women and All the Rest, International Labour Review, 139 (4), 481-505. Memmedova, M. (2000) İktisadi Kalkınmada Kadının Rolü ve Türkiye ve Azerbaycan Karşılaştırması, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Eskişehir. Mill, J.S. (1902) Principles of Political Economy: With Some of Their Applications to Social Philosophy, (Vol. II.), Second Edition, London: J.Parker, W Strand. Palaz, S. (2005) “Toplumsal Cinsiyet ve Kalkınma: Kalkınmada Kadının Yeri” in M. Kar and S. Taban (eds.) İktisadi Kalkınmada Sosyal, Kültürel ve Siyasal Faktörlerin Rolü, Ekin Kitabevi, Bursa. Pujol, M.A. (1992) Feminism and Anti-feminism in Early Economic Thought, Aldershot, U.K. Elgar. Pujol, M.A. (1995) “İnto the Margin” in E. Kuiper ve J. Sap (eds.), Out of the Margin: Feminist Perspectives on Economic Theory, Routledge, New york. Smith, A. (1776) An Inquiry Into The Nature And Causes Of The Wealth Of Nations, (Vol. I.) London: W.Strahan; T. Cadell. Tinker, I. (1997) “The Making of a Field: Advocates, Practitioners and Scholars” in N. Visvanathan, L. Duggan, L. Nison’off, N. Wiegersma (eds.) The Women, Gender and Development Reader, Zed Books Ltd., London. UNDP, (1995) Human Development Report, Oxford University Press, New York. Williams, M. (2006) “Why Feminist economists should pay more attention to the coherence between the World Bank and the WTO” in E. Kuiper and D. K. Barker(eds.) Feminist Economics And The World Bank -History, Theory and Policy, Routledge, New York. 110 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Yavuz, G. and Serdaroğlu U. ( 2010) “Kalkınma ve Kadın (veya toplumsal cinsiyet) İlişkilendirilişinin Değişimindeki Kavşaklar” in U. Serdaroğlu (ed.) İktisat ve Toplumsal Cinsiyet, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara. Yumuş, A. (2011) Kalkınma Planları Çerçevesinde Toplumsal Cinsiyet Eşitliği Anlayışının Ekonomik, Toplumsal ve Siyasal Boyutları, T.C. Başbakanlık Kadının Statüsü Genel Müdürlüğü Yayınları, Ankara. Determinants Of Turkey Current Account Deficit: An Econometric Analysis M. Metin Dam, İsmet Göçer,Şahin Bulut,Mehmet Mercan Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences Department of Economy Abstract The main causes of the current account deficit in Turkey; the foreign trade deficit, the high ratio of intermediate goods imports, high oil prices and Turkey's energy import dependence, lack of domestic savings, foreign direct investment and low tourism revenues. In this study, the causes of the current account deficit and current account deficit financing structure were examined. In addition, the determinanats of Turkey current account deficit wereanalyzed via VAR methods using the data of 2002-2011 monthly current account deficit, net export, interest on external debt, transfer payments and costs of tourism. As a result of the study, According to variance discrimination results obtained from VAR model composed under this roof, current account deficit is determined by its own shocks in the short term. In addition, current account deficit prediction error variance is determined by tourism expenditures and foreign debt interest rate as well as its own variables. Current account deficit is affected by export, foreign debt interest rate, transfer payments and shock given to tourism expenditures. Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Determinants, VAR, Turkey 1.INTRODUCTION 1.1.What is current account deficit? Current account deficit is the difference between the amount of foreign currency getting in and out a country. Export and tourism make up foreign currency income and import and foreign expenditure make up foreign currency expenditure. Current account deficit is reached: the foreign currency obtained from goods export, service export like tourism(e.g the wage income of those working abroad) and manufacture factors are added and the expenditures made in the same category (import, tourism expenditures, the transfer of the profit gained by 111 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1317 Title A name given to the resource Women’s Role In Economic Development: From Classical Approach To The Present Author Author İşler , Ruhan Abstract A summary of the resource. The aim of this study is to examine women’s role in economic development from a historical perspective. Many classical economists considered women to be irrational as economic agents. They took it for granted that women were paid less than men. Feminist economists criticise traditional-neoclassical economics claiming that conceptual basis for the mainstream economic knowledge is gender discrimination and women’s experiences are not reflected in economics. For this reason, they suggest that economic horizon be broadened by reviewing and questioning economics, including women’s perspective. Towards the end of the 1980s, the concept of human development was improved and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) started working under the name of Human Development Index (HDI) in order to measure the development levels of countries. In the same way, studies on the elimination of gender-related inequality that is one of the new dimensions of development concept were started by UNDP. In this context, Gender-Related Development Index (GDI) was developed. Furthermore, Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) has been emerged to measure the distribution and participation of women in the economic and political life. In recent years, The World Bank has shifted its focus from structural adjustment to poverty reduction. The growing interest to the problems of gender and women has been an important part of this process. When gender inequality is not taken into consideration, economic growth and development cannot be handled effectively, because poverty leads to gender inequality and gender inequality negatively affects economic development. Considered as a human capital, human factor is a fundamental determinant of economic development. In this context, the major target of economic development is to improve life standards and to provide equal opportunities in health, education, employment for everybody without gender discrimination. Women should be involved in the current economic development plans, programs and projects with the help of the government policy. Keywords: Gender, Feminist Economics, Economic Development, Gender İnequality, Women’s Studies. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d547be98c2f8267094e490a65d4d0e68.pdf 74e5ceae82a1d14e5fc8f69989d93889 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Effect Of Foreign Direct Investments On Domestic Investments Of Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis İsmet Göçer1, Osman Peker1, Mehmet Mercan2 1Adnan Menderes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Aydin/Turkey, 2 Research Assistant, Hakkari University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Hakkari/Turkey, E-mails: igocer@adu.edu.tr, opeker@adu.edu.tr,mercan48@gmail.com Abstract Foreign direct investments are regarded as a significant source of investment in developing countries. However, foreign direct investments may affect domestic investments in different aspects. They can enforce the domestic firms to crowd out of the sector, or crowd in them. In this study; the effects of foreign direct investments for developing countries was examined by means of panel unit root tests and dynamic panel data analysis, within using belonging 35 countries 1992-2010 period data. As an empirical results obtained from the analysis; foreign direct investments increases domestic investments and has got crowding in effects in developing countries. In these countries, $1 of foreign direct investment (FDI) causes $2.64 increasing in total investment. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Crowding in-Crowding out Effects, Developing Countries. Jel Codes: E22, F21, G11, P33. 1. INTRODUCTION FDI is an investment involving a long-term relationship that control of a resident entity in one economy is reflecting a lasting interest and in that enterprise resident in an economy other than that of the foreign direct investor (OECD, 1992). FDI refers to the net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest, 10 percent or more of voting stock, in an enterprise operating in an economy other than the investor (World Bank, 1999). These kind investments involve setting up the factory; purchase domestic firm (including privatization), joint venture with a local firm, licensing agreements and purchases of real estate. FDI have significant effects for economies. It can provide a country access to new markets, cheap production, new technology, alternative products, labor and management skills and financing (Sun, 1996; Barelli and Pain, 1997; Sun, 1998; Jayaraman, 1998; Borensztein, Gregoria and Lee, 1998 and Javorcik, 2004). FDI has come to play a major role in the internationalization of business lately. FDI reached this volume owing to liberalization policies, new economic integrations, trade acts, tariff liberalization, thanks to new information technology decline the communication and remote management costs. FDI flows have increased from $54 billion in the 1980’s to $1244 billion in 2010. FDI firms exported $6 trillion, which about thirty percent of global exports, created 94 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo added value $7 trillion and supply $33 trillion income to employee in 2010 (UNCTAD-WIR, 2011). FDI may have some different effects on host country economies. It may cause crowding out or crowding in of domestic firms from sector. Purpose of this study is to analysis this effect on developing countries economy. These effects will be analyzed via panel unit root tests and dynamic panel data analysis method using 35 developing country’s 1992-2010 period data. 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK FDI can affect investments of domestic firms via its own investment activities in various ways. Some of the positive and negative effects of FDI on domestic investment are regarded. Impact of FDI on domestic investments may determine according to its complementarity and substitution features. While FDI producing substitute goods, it may crowding out especially inefficient domestic firms; on the other hand FDI will crowding in domestic investment that producing complementary goods or it will uses row material from domestic market (Buffie, 1993). If there are FDIs’ crowds out effects on the domestic investments; one unit FDI increases will lead to increase of total investment in the host country smaller than one unit. On the other hand, if FDI has got crowds in effects on the domestic investment, one unit FDI increases will lead to more than one unit increase of total investment in the host country. If the effect is neutral, a unit FDI increases causes a unit increases on total investment (Misun and Tomsik, 2002). Crowding out effects of FDI may takes place when foreign and domestic firms are in the same industry. When FDI has come to a sector which included intensive domestic activities, the firms that will compete and domestic firms cannot stand this competition, and will be crowded out of sector. If the FDI goes towards the indigenous sectors, which there is less investment in this sector, through increase the volume of trading and market in this sector, it will be crowding in the domestic firms in this sector (De Mello, 1999). 2.1. Mathematical Framework of Crowding In and Crowding Out Effects For analysis this effects of FDI may beginning with a simple equation where investment in a country is the sum of domestic investment (Id) and FDI: 13 I  I d  FDI (1) From the point of view of the recipient country, FDI can be considered to be an exogenous variable (because it depends on conditions in the world economy, Transnational Corporations (TNCs) strategies, etc.). Domestic investment is depending on the domestic revenue (GDP). The model simply maybe arranged as follows: I d    1GDP By replacing (2) in (1), a model for total investment was obtained: (2) 13 UNCTAD-WIR, (1999) has been followed here and the model has been extended by the authors. 95 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo I    1GDP  FDI (3) The model of equation (3) assumes that FDI has no macroeconomic externalities on domestic investment and that, therefore, one dollar of FDI becomes one dollar of investment. Since the purpose of the exercise is to verify whether these externalities exist and, if they do, whether they are positive of negative, a more general formulation is used: I    1GDP  2 FDI (4) An empirical finding that β2> 1 is evidence for crowding in while β2< 1 is evidence for crowding out. While investors are investing not only current year, but also look at the past years’ economic growth rate. So investments dynamic process can expand as follows: p p p j 0 j 1 j 0 I i ,t  i    j Fi ,t  j    j Ii ,t  j    j Gi ,t  j   i ,t (5) Where I = investment; F = FDI; G = growth of GDP;  is the fixed country effects and  is a serially uncorrelated random error. That long-term crowding in and crowding out will be tested with this the relevant coefficient is: p ˆ LT   j 0 j p 1  j (6) j 1 The criterion used to determine crowding in or crowding out is the value and significance of ˆLT . Wald test constraints: If ˆLT =1, means that foreign direct investment caused neither crowding in effect nor crowding out effect on domestic investment, that is neutral (N) effect. ˆ An increase of one unit FDI will make a total investment also increased one unit; If LT ＞1, means that FDI caused crowding-in effect on domestic investment, that a unit of FDI can ˆ bring more than one unit of total investment; If LT ＜1, means that foreign direct investment caused crowding-out effect on domestic investment, that a unit of increase in FDI to the total increase in investment is less than one unit of. 3. SITUATIONIN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows realized to $1.24 trillion in 2010. UNCTAD estimates that global FDI will recover to its pre-crisis level in 2011, increasing to $1.4–1.6 trillion. Some of the poorest regions continued to see declines in FDI flows. Flows to Africa, least developed countries, landlocked developing countries and small island developing states all declined, as flows to South Asia. At the same time, major emerging regions, such as East and South-East Asia and Latin America experienced strong growth in FDI inflows (UNCTAD-WIR, 2011). International production is expanding, with foreign sales, employment and assets of TNCs all increasing. TNCs’ production worldwide generated value-added of approximately $16 trillion in 2010, about a quarter of global GDP. Foreign affiliates of TNCs accounted for more than 96 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 10 per cent of global GDP and one-third of world exports. Table 1 shows the distribution of FDI in the economies. Table 1: Distribution of the FDI in Economies (Billion $) World 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Share of Share of Developing Transition Developing Transition Economies Economies Economies Economies 54 207 1.403 983 1.462 1.971 1.744 1.185 1.244 7 35 258 332 429 573 658 511 574 Share of Developed Developed Economies Economies 14 0 0 17 0 0 18 7 1 34 31 3 29 55 4 29 91 5 38 121 7 43 72 6 46 68 5 Source: UNCTAD-STAD. 47 173 1.138 619 978 1.307 965 603 602 86 83 81 63 67 66 55 51 48 According to Table 1, while FDI in developing countries increasing, decreasing in developed countries. For the first time, developing and transition economies together attracted more than half of global FDI flows. Outward FDI from those economies also reached record highs, with most of their investment directed towards other countries in the South. In contrast, FDI inflows to developed countries continued to decline. The distribution of FDI among for 2010 year top 20 developing countries is shown in Table 2. Table 2: Distribution of the FDI in Top Eleven Developing Countries (Million $) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 YEAR China Brazil Singapore Saudi Arabia India Mexico Chile Indonesia Angola Malaysia Turkey 1980 57 1.910 1.236 -3.192 79 2.099 213 180 37 934 18 1990 3.487 989 5.575 312 237 2.633 661 1.092 -335 2.611 684 2000 2006 2007 2008 40.175 72.715 83.521 108.312 32.779 18.822 34.585 45.058 16.484 29.348 37.033 8.588 183 17.140 22.821 38.151 3.588 20.328 25.350 42.546 18.110 20.052 29.734 26.295 4.860 7.298 12.534 15.150 -4.495 4.914 6.928 9.318 2.174 9.064 9.796 16.581 3.788 6.060 8.595 7.172 982 20.185 22.047 19.504 Source: UNCTAD-STAD. 2009 95.000 25.949 15.279 32.100 35.649 15.334 12.874 4.877 11.672 1.430 8.411 2010 105.735 48.438 38.638 28.105 24.640 18.679 15.095 13.304 9.942 9.103 9.071 4. LITERATURE There have been many studies for of FDI effects on domestic investment in the economics literature. In these studies reached different conclusions. Summary of these studies are given in order of date of construction. Lubitz (1966), studied relating to Canada and found a big effect FDI to domestic investment that: $1 of FDI led to $3 of capital formation in host country. Similarly Van Loo, (1977), studied again on Canada with 1948-1966 periods data and found that: $1 of FDI led to $1.4 of capital formation in host. Borensztein, et al, (1998), studied of the impact of FDI on domestic investment, utilizing data on FDI flows from developed countries to 69 developing countries on a yearly basis from 1970 to 1989, has found, that FDI has stimulated domestic investments; one dollar net inflow of FDI increases total investment in the host economy between 1.5 and 2.3 times the increase in the flow of FDI. 97 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Chudnovsky, Lopez and Porta (1996), found crowding out effect in the case of Latin America, where the development of domestic subcontractors was part and parcel of the privatization agreement with foreign investors. Intel built a large microprocessor plant in Costa Rica and contributed to domestic capital formation. This investment as such didn’t displace local entrepreneurs, because they hadn’t got exist, even potentially. Intel affiliate gave rise to investments by about 40 local suppliers. But there were some complaints by local business people that Intel's investment crowds them out of the labor market by absorbing skilled programmers. Jomo (1997), studied for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, which relied heavily on FDI and TNCs have invested in new industries of the economies of those countries mainly microelectronics-related toys and other consumer goods for export markets, initially many of the FDIs where with few linkages to the rest of the economy, domestic suppliers of services and inputs have emerged in time, and FDI crowding in a lot of firms in this industries. UNCTAD-WIR (1999), including an econometric study for FDIs’ effects on domestic investments. This study covers 39 developing countries’ 1970-1996 period data by means of panel data analysis. The results with respect to the effects of FDI on investment by individual countries show that neutral effects dominate while the number of crowding in and crowding out cases were equal: the former were found in 19 countries and the latter in 10 countries each. As regards regional patterns, out of the 12 Latin American countries included in the test, none was in the group with crowding-in effects and none of the 12 Asian countries was in the crowding-out group: while neutral and crowding in effects prevailed in Asia, neutral and crowding out effects prevailed in Latin America. Agosin and Mayer (2000), studied for Asia, Africa and Latin America country via panel data analysis and found that: while there were complementary relationship between investments in Asia and Africa countries, there were substitution relationship in Latin American countries. Driffield and Hughes (2003), found of FDIs complementarity and creation on the heap economy features’. According to Backer and Sleuwaegen (2003), in the context of occupational choice models, FDI declining the power of local entrepreneurs. But, FDI increases the domestic investments through networking, chain and learning effects. Agosin and Machado (2005), studied of the impact of FDI on domestic investment via econometric methods and found FDI hadn’t got a positive effect on domestic investment. Apergis, Katrakilidis and Tabakis (2006), with panel study involving 30 countries found that: FDI had got complementary relationship between domestic investment in the single-variable model, whereas, in the context ofa multivariate model was obtained from the substitutional relationship. Lin and Chuang (2007), tested this effects for Taiwan economy, found that FDI have got important effects on domestic investments. According to them, FDI crowding out to little domestic firms and crowding in the big domestic firms. Ang (2009), studied of the impact of FDI on domestic investment for Malaysia through VAR analysis using 1960-2003 periods data and found that: $1 FDI increase the domestic investments $1.25. Therefore, FDI involves crowding in effects in Malaysian economy. Gan and Gao (2010), studied of the impact of FDI on domestic investment for China via panel data analysis methods using 1992-2007 periods data and found that: $1 FDI increase the domestic investment in central region $4.08 and $5.88 in Shanxi region. So, FDI have got crowding in effects in China economy. 98 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 5. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 5.1. Data Set A balanced panel of 665 annual observations from 35 developing countries over the period 1992-2010 was used in this study. The sample of countries represents all major regions in the world as FDI attracting in 2010. It includes 11 countries from Latin America and Caribbean, 11 from Asia and the Pacific, 10 from Africa and 3 from economies in transition. Investment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are these studies’ variables. Data set was obtained from World Bank, UNCTAD and IMF. All data currency is US dollar. I = investment to GDP ratio; F = FDI to GDP ratio; G = growth of Real GDP. 5.2. Method For this study data set included in the dynamic processes, dynamic panel data analysis method was used. Dynamic panel data analysis method is taken into consideration dynamic structure between the dependent and independent variables (Baltagi, 1995). In addition to use of panel data in estimating ensures control for missing or unobserved variables and relationships allow identification of country-specific effects (Arellano-Bond, 1991; Matyas and Sevestre, 1996). The dynamic panel allows dynamic effects to be introduced into the model and allows feedback from current or past shocks (Hsiao, 1986). This approach requires that N>T (Hahn, 1997) and N and T must be very big (Hsiao, 2003: 75).Simple equation of dynamic panel data is: yit   yi ,t 1   xit  i  uit (7)  x for i=1,2,...,N; and t=1,2,...,T.  is a scalar, it is kx1, it denotes the i-th individuals effect u and it is the remainder disturbance. In this study, along dynamic panel data estimation methods the technique Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) was used.GMM procedures are more efficient than other estimators Arellano and Bond (1991). The resulting GMM estimator is asymptotically efficient (Baltagi, 1995). GMM estimators use all possible lagged values of dependent and independent variables as instrumental variable (Arellano and Bond 1991). Sargan test is used to determine if instrumental variables of the GMM are suitable (Greene, 2003). The Sargan test is a test of the validity of instrumental variables. The Sargan test based on the Arellano and Bond (1991) instrument set for the first differenced equations exhibits a zero rejection frequency under both the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis (Bowsher, 2002). The Sargan test is based on the observation that the residuals should be uncorrelated with the set of exogenous variables if the instruments are truly exogenous. It is a test of the over identifying restrictions. Hypotheses are: H0: Instrumental variables are exogenous (Moment conditions are valid). H1: Instrumental variables aren’t exogenous (Moment conditions are invalid). The hypothesis tested with the Sargan-J statistic. This statistic will be asymptotically chisquared (  ) with m-k degrees of freedom. m is instrumental variables number and k is number of the parameter. If the obtained test statistic probability value greater than 0.05, null hypotheses will accepted. Therefore, instrumental variables are uncorrelated to residuals, and 2 99 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo therefore they are acceptable, instruments are healthy. If the obtained test statistic probability value smaller than 0.05, H0 will be rejected and instrumental variables are unacceptable. 5.3. Panel Unit Root Test Panel unit root testing is accepted more strong for only the time dimension of time series unit root tests. Since it covers the data of both time and cross-sectional size (Im, Pesaran and Shin, 1997; Maddala and Wu, 1999; Taylor and Sarno, 1998; Levin and Lin, 1992; Hadri, 2000; Choi, 2001; Levin, Lin and Chu, 2002; Breuer and Wallace, 2002; Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2005; Pesaran, 2006; Beyaert and Camacho, 2008). At the same time, the addition of cross-sectional size of the analysis, increased variability in the data. The first problem encountered in the panel unit root tests are whether or not independent of each cross-section. Panel unit root tests are divided into first generation and second generation tests. While Breitung (2000), Hadri (2000) and Levin, Lin and Chu (2002) based on the assumption of a homogeneous model; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) based on the assumption of a heterogeneous model. In this study; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) (IPS) test will be used since the countries aren’t homogeneous. IPS test is based on this model: pj Yit   iYi ,t 1   ij Yi ,t  j   X it   it (8) j 1  1  for i=1,2,...,N; and t=1,2,...,T. i is a error correction model. If i (or unit root test probability value<0.05) serial is trend stationary, or else it has got unit root and not stationary. Table3: IPS Unit Root Test Variable Level Value Prob Value I -6.011 0.0000 F -3.511 0.0002 G -11.396 0.0000 Note: In panel unit root tests Schwarz criterion is used and length was1 taken. According to the Table 3, all series are stationary in level values. So this means analyzes to be performed in this series is reliable. 5.4. Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Dynamic data analysis made with using model (5) via GMM and the results of obtained are presented in Table 4. Table 4: Results of Dynamic Data Analysis 100 Variables Coefficients t-Statistics I(-1) I(-2) I(-3) F F(-1) F(-2) F(-3) G G(-1) 0.97 -0.06 0.26 0.44 0.51 -1.07 0.57 0.36 -0.31 414.05 -28.68 86.35 57.62 34.14 -294.95 65.55 619.67 -234.85 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo G(-2) G(-3) R2=0.87 -0.03 -0.001 J-Statistic=26.91 -38.16 -1.21 Instrument Rank=35 White Period method was used to correct the standard errors. Sargan test was used to determine whether the instruments are suitable or not by using J-statistic and instrument rank. In this way found the p-value=0.208. This result is bigger than 0.05. Thus decided to instruments are suitable and analysis results are reliable. Long-term investment coefficient calculated using equation (6) and found it 2.64. This result shows; in developing country, $1of FDI creates $2.64 in total investments. As result of FDI increases domestic investment and it has got crowding in effect in the developing country. This is a very high degree. Countries, which wishing to increase their domestic investments, should utilize from this source. 6. CONCLUSIONS There are different opinions about the effects of FDI on domestic investment in economics literature. Some economics believe that, FDI reduces domestic investment and it has got crowding out effects. Other claim FDI increases domestic investment and it has got crowding in effects. The main purpose of this study is to analyze these effects in developing countries. For this purpose, using data from 1992-2010 for 35 developing countries a dynamic panel data analysis was performed. As an empirical results obtained from the analysis; FDI increases domestic investment and has got crowding in effects in developing countries. $1of dollar FDI leads to an increase $2.64 total investment in these countries. This value is very high; FDI for the emerging countries shows how important it is. Therefore, countries, which wishing to increase their domestic investments, absolutely should utilize from this source. As a result, if a country wants to accelerate its developing pace; it tries to attract more FDI its country. The same time governments should take necessary measures for foreign investments attributes and qualities. REFERENCES Agosin, M. R. & Mayer R. (2000) Foreign Investment In Developing Countries: Does It Crowd in Domestic Investment?, UNCTAD Discussion Paper, No: 146. Agosin, M. R. & Machado R. (2005) Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment? Oxford Development Studies, 33 (2): 149-162. Ang, J. B. (2009) Do Public Investment and FDI Crowd in or Crowd out Private Domestic Investment in Malaysia? Applied Economics, 41: 913–919. Apergis, N., Katrakilidis C. P. & Tabakis N. M. (2006) Dynamic Linkages Between FDI Inflows and Domestic Investment: A Panel Cointegration Approach, Atlantic Economic Journal, 34: 385-394. Arellano, M. & Bond S. (1991) Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, 58: 277–297. 101 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Backer K. D. and Sleuwaegen L. (2003) Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd Out Domestic Entrepreneurship? 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(2007) FDI and Domestic Investment in Taiwan: An Endogenous Switching Model, The Developing Economies,45(4): 465–490. Lubitz, R. (1966) United States Direct Investment in Canada and Canadian Capital Formation, 1950-1962, Ph.D. Dissertation, October, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University. Maddala, G.S. & Wu S. (1999) A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61: 631-652. Matyas, L. & Sevestre P. (1996) The Econometrics of Panel Data, 2nd Edition, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Misun, J. & Tomsik V. (2002) Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd in or Crowd out Domestic Investment? Eastern European Economics, 40(2): 38–56. Driffield, N. & Hughes D. (2003) Foreign and Domestic Investment: Regional Development or Crowding out? Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, 37(3): 277-288. OECD, (1992) Detailed Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment, Second Edition, Paris. Pesaran, H. (2006) A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section 103 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Dependence, Cambridge University Working Paper, 0346. Sun, H. (1996) Direct Foreign Investment and Linkage Effects: the Experience of China, Asian Economies, 25(1): 5-28. Sun, H. (1998) Macroeconomic Impact of Direct Foreign Investment in China: 1979-1996, The World Economy, 21(5): 675-694. Taylor, M. & Sarno L. (1998) The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period, Journal of International Economics, 46: 281-312. UNCTAD-WIR (1999) Indirect Impact: Does FDI “Crowd out” or “Crowd in” Domestic Investment? New York and Geneva. UNCTAD-WIR (2011) Non-Equity Modes of International Production and Development, Switzerland. Van, L. F. (1977) The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Investment in Canada, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 59: 474 481. World Bank, (1999) World Development Report, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Women’s Role In Economic Development: From Classical Approach To The Present İşler Ruhan Şentürk Canan Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey E-mails: ruhanisler@hotmail.com,canansenturk@sdu.edu.tr Abstract The aim of this study is to examine women’s role in economic development from a historical perspective. Many classical economists considered women to be irrational as economic agents. They took it for granted that women were paid less than men. Feminist economists criticise traditional-neoclassical economics claiming that conceptual basis for the mainstream economic knowledge is gender discrimination and women’s experiences are not reflected in economics. For this reason, they suggest that economic horizon be broadened by reviewing and questioning economics, including women’s perspective. Towards the end of the 1980s, the concept of human development was improved and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) started working under the name of Human Development Index (HDI) in order to measure the development levels of countries. In the same way, studies on the elimination of gender-related inequality that is one of the new dimensions of development concept were started by UNDP. In this context, Gender-Related Development Index (GDI) was developed. Furthermore, Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM) has been emerged to measure the distribution and participation of women in the 104 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1316 Title A name given to the resource Effect Of Foreign Direct Investments On Domestic Investments Of Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Author Author İsmet , Göçer Abstract A summary of the resource. Foreign direct investments are regarded as a significant source of investment in developing countries. However, foreign direct investments may affect domestic investments in different aspects. They can enforce the domestic firms to crowd out of the sector, or crowd in them. In this study; the effects of foreign direct investments for developing countries was examined by means of panel unit root tests and dynamic panel data analysis, within using belonging 35 countries 1992-2010 period data. As an empirical results obtained from the analysis; foreign direct investments increases domestic investments and has got crowding in effects in developing countries. In these countries, $1 of foreign direct investment (FDI) causes $2.64 increasing in total investment. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Crowding in-Crowding out Effects, Developing Countries. Jel Codes: E22, F21, G11, P33. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8ccb9313aa8bda592b6552e48771fac9.pdf b030f2276b519754e3ffe705d68de7e9 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Budget Deficits Sustainability Of Selected Eu Countries And Turkey: Panel Cointegration Analysis İsmet Göçer1,Mehmet Mercan2, M. Metin Dam1 1 Adnan Menderes University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Aydin/Turkey 2Hakkari University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Hakkari/Turkey E-mails: igocer@adu.edu.tr, mercan48@gmail.com, metindam@adu.edu.tr Abstract Sustainability of budget deficits is one of the most important macroeconomic problems in most countries. High public spending and insufficiency of public revenue are main reasons collapsing of Greek, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland economies. For this reason, the conservation of budget balance and sustainability of budget deficits have a great importance. In this study; in selected 20 European Union countries and Turkey, the sustainability of budget deficit was analyzed with via under cross-section dependence panel co-integration analysis. At the end of the analysis; cross-section dependence was determined in these countries. Therefore, an economic shock which will come to one of these countries, affects the others, too. For this reason, the shocks that have been come to series don’t eliminate in the long term Co-integration relationship couldn't found between these series. Consequently, it has been seen budget deficits of these countries were unsustainable in the long term. Keywords: Budget Deficits, Sustainability, Cross-Section Dependence, Panel Co-integration Analysis. Jel Codes: C23, G18, H61, H62. 1. INTRODUCTION A system that is economically sustainability keeps internal and external debt to in the manageable levels and ensures continuous production of goods and services. (Haris, 2000: 5). The concept of sustainability in terms of budget, governments can fulfill their obligations to current and future spending is the ability to manage financial resources. For that reason, the sustainable budget system ensures allocation to public resources fairly intergenerational, keeps the interest rates at a level to encourage investments, eliminates of uncertainty and thus makes the economy more durable to unexpected shocks (Intergenerational Report, 2002: 313). The idea that is governments should intervene in the economy at the expense of the state budget deficit began with Keynes. Thus budget deficits have become a growing and permanent problem for countries. Many countries are attempting to pay the debts of the day, by means of the new debts. This situation is making much harder of financing and sustainability of the budget deficit. This situation is dragging countries in a vicious cycle of debt and can cause to economic crises. 238 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In order to decrease the level of indebtedness of countries, some arrangements have been accepted with Maastricht Criteria in 1993. According to these arrangements, so as to participate into the economic and monetary union of European Union (EU) member states, the ratio of the annual government deficit to gross domestic product (GDP) must not exceed 3% at the end of the preceding fiscal year and the ratio of gross government debt to GDP must not exceed 60% at the end of the preceding fiscal year, too. In this study, sustainability of budget deficit has been examined for 20 EU countries which their budget deficit exceed %3 of GDP in year 2011 and Turkey by means of under crosssection dependence panel unit root and panel co-integration tests for period of 2000-2011. After this point in the second section, theatrical background of sustainability of budget deficit will get involved. This section will be followed by the third section which includes the information about budget deficit of countries. This section will be followed by the fourth section which includes the literature summary and fifth section that involves the empirical analysis. The study will be completed with the conclusion and evaluation sections. 2. THEORETİCAL BACKGROUND The sustainability of the budget deficit is discussed with accounting approach and intertemporal budget constraint approach (Sriwardana, 1998). At the first approach, the sustainability of the budget deficit takes place if present discounted value of future primary surplus is greater or equal to current public debt stock. (Trehan and Walsh, 1988; Hakkio and Rush, 1991; Haug, 1991; Quintos, 1995). At the second approach he sustainability of budget deficits depends on the total values of assets and liabilities of state is equal each other or more assets than liabilities in present and future. (Buiter, 1985; Anand and Van Wijnbergen, 1989; Blejer and Cheasty, 1991). Hakkio and Rush (1991), for the U.S economy, relationship between government expenditures and government revenues examined via intertemporal budget constraint approach by using period of 1950:Q21988:Q4 data. Budget revenue and expenditure to GDP ratio study is used, provided that the co-integration relationship between the series, tested whether the coefficient equal to one. If the parameter is equal to one, the budget deficits are sustainable, while smaller than one is considered to be unsustainable in the long term budget deficits. Later Quintos (1995) has expanded these conditions. If the coefficient of the budget expenses equal to 1, the budget deficits sustainability is considered strong. If it is among between zero and one, sustainability is in a weak form. Adapted form is Hakkio and Rushs’ sustainability of budget deficits equations’ as follows: REVt  0  1EXPt  ut (1) Here, REV represents to general government revenue percent of GDP (including interest incomes) and EXP represents to General government total expenditure percent of GDP (including interest payments). 3. BUDGET DEFICIT IN COUNTRIES Lately, for the economic crises is lived in different countries, can said that uncontrolled budget deficits has got a significant share. There are budget deficits on the basis of the 239 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo economic problems ın Ireland, Greece and Spain. The ratio budget deficits to GDP of the countries are shown at the Table 1. Table 1: General Government Net Lending (Percent of GDP) 2011 Ranking -3.4 -3.6 -2.1 -4.1 -10.3 -9.3 -10.1 5. 1.6 2.8 0.1 -7.3 -14.1 -31.3 -9.8 7. -3.1 -2.1 -2.7 -6.6 -13.1 -10.4 -9.5 8. -5.5 -5.9 -6.6 -9.7 -15.5 -10.6 -9.1 9. -3.3 -2.6 -2.6 -4.9 -10.3 -9.8 -8.6 11. 0.9 2.1 1.9 -4.1 -11.1 -9.3 -8.4 13. -2.9 -2.3 -2.7 -3.3 -7.5 -7.1 -5.3 37. 1.5 1.5 1.5 0.1 -4.8 -5.5 -4.5 50. -2.8 0.1 -0.3 -1.2 -5.8 -4.1 -4.1 59. -5.8 -4.1 -3.2 -3.7 -10.1 -9.7 -4.1 66. -4.3 -3.3 -1.4 -2.6 -5.3 -4.4 -3.9 69. -0.2 0.1 -1.6 -2.3 -5.6 -2.7 -0.2 138. Source: IMF-World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012 2005 Japan Ireland US Greece UK Spain France Canada Belgium Portugal Italy Turkey 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 According to Table 1, the ratio of the annual budget deficit to GDP in 2011 is very high in the Japan, Ireland, USA, Greece and the United Kingdom. Turkey 138th among 184 countries. Especially the United States and other major economies, appear to be higher than the 3% level of the Maastricht criteria. The sustainability of budget deficits in these countries is at risk. Interested countries and international organizations must take action against to that situation. Ratio of the general government gross debt to GDP in countries, are shown in Table 2. Table 2: General Government Gross Debt (Percent of GDP) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Japan 186.4 185.9 183.1 191.8 210.2 215.2 229.7 Greece 100.2 106.1 105.4 110.7 127.1 142.7 160.8 Italy 105.4 106.1 103.1 105.8 116.1 118.6 120.1 Portugal 62.5 63.6 68.2 71.5 83.1 93.4 106.7 Ireland 27.1 24.7 24.8 44.2 65.1 92.4 104.9 US 67.8 66.6 67.1 76.1 89.8 98.5 102.9 France 66.7 63.9 64.1 68.2 78.9 82.3 86.2 Canada 71.6 70.2 66.5 71.1 83.5 85.1 84.9 UK 42.1 43.1 43.9 52.4 68.3 75.1 82.4 Germany 68.5 67.9 65.2 66.6 74.4 83.2 81.5 Turkey 52.7 46.5 39.9 40.1 46.1 42.2 39.4 Source: IMF-World Economic Outlook Database, April 2012 2011 Ranking 1. 2. 7. 9. 10. 11. 19. 20. 22. 24. 93. According to Table 2, the country which has the highest total public debt stock to GDP ratio is Japan. It is followed by Greece. In the Maastricht Criteria, when the ratio of total public debt to GDP passed the critical value 60%, it was considered to be risky in terms of countries. In this case, the debt stocks of major countries, has reached the values at risk. Turkey is far below the critical value and has got a better ratio. 4. LITERATURE Since increasing the importance of sustainability of budget deficit in recently in the international scale, the numbers of empirical studies on this subject have increased. In 240 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo particular the enormous budget deficits of the United States, directed to this issue the attention of researchers. For USA economy Kremers (1989), Wilcox (1989), Roberds (1991) and Hakkio and Rush (1991), Mankiw (2010); for Greece economy Fountas and Wu (1996), Makrydakis et al.(1999); for India Fountas and Wu (1996), Makrydakis et al. (1999); for Spain Rubio et al. (2006) have found that the budget deficits are not sustainable. Vice versa for USA economy Hamilton and Flavin (1986), Trehan and Walsh (1988), Trehan and Walsh (1991), Quintos (1995), Arestis et al. (2004); for Korea Koo (2002); for Greece, Ireland, Italy and Netherlands Arghyrou and Luintel (2003); for Turkey Payne (2008) has found the budget deficits would be sustainable. In addition, Payne (1996), has found budget deficits are unsustainable in France and Italy, but low level sustainable in Canada and United Kingdom. Panagiotis et al. (2009), tested theory of the twin deficits for Greece's economy and found that both deficits are sustainable in weak form. About the sustainability of budget deficits in Turkey; Ozmen and Kogar (1998), Azgun and Tasdemir (2006), have reached the conclusion of budget deficit is sustainable in Turkey. Akcay et al. (2001), Ozdemir (2004) and Sen et al. (2010) have obtained the result of the budget deficit unsustainable. Gocer and Peker (2011), have determined that the budget deficit is sustainable in weak form. 5. ANALYSIS 5.1.Data Set In this study, 20 European Union member countries, which their ratio of budget deficit to GDP has been bigger than 3% since 2011, and Turkeys' REV (General government revenue Percent of GDP) and EXP (General government total expenditure Percent of GDP) data of the 2000-2011 period has been used.. Data was taken from the IMF World Economic Outlook Database April 2012. 5.2. Method In this study; cross-sectional dependence among countries that make up panel was analyzed via Pesaran (2004) CDLM test. Cross-section dependence for variables was tested with Gauss codes; cross-sectional dependence for equation was tested using Eviews codes14. The stationary of the series were tested with Pesaran (2006) CADF and CIPS second generation unit root tests and Gauss codes. The presence of co-integration relationship between REV and EXP series was analyzed with Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method and using Gauss codes. Long term co-integration coefficients were estimated with Pesaran (2006) CCE and CCMGE methods and using Gauss codes. 5.3. Testing of Cross Section Dependence Whether consideration or not cross-sectional dependence between series, affects the whole outcome significantly (Breusch and Pagan, 1980; Pesaran, 2004). For this reason, before 14 We grateful for these codes and their helps to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Bülent GÜLOĞLU and Asst. Prof. Dr. Şaban NAZLIOĞLU. 241 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo starting the analysis, the cross-section dependency must be tested. Because while selecting unit root and co-integration test methods, this situation must be considered. Otherwise the analysis that is done may cause wrong conclusions. The presence of a cross-sectional dependence: when dimension of time is larger than the dimension of cross-section (T>N); using Berusch and Pagan (1980) CDLM1tests, when time dimension equals to the dimension of the cross-section (T=N); testing via Pesaran (2004) CDLM2, if time dimension is smaller than the dimension of the cross-section (T<N) test makes via Pesaran (2004) CDLM tests’. Since there are 21 countries (N = 21), and 12 years (T = 12) in this study, Pesaran (2004) CDLM test has been used. Equation of CDLM tests as follows:  N 1 N  2T CD  (2)    ˆij  N (0,1) N ( N  1)  i 1 j i 1  Test statistic which will be obtained here, show that asymptotic standard normal distribution (Pesaran, 2004). Hypotheses of test: H0: There isn’t cross-section dependency. H1: There is cross-section dependency When test results obtained probability value less than 0.05, the H0 hypothesis is rejected at a significance level of 5% and be decided that there is cross-section dependency among these countries (Pesaran, 2004). In this study, presence of cross-section dependence on the variables was tested by using gauss codes. The presence of cross-section dependence on the co-integration equation was controlled by using Eviews codes. The results are displayed in the Table 3. Table 3: Results of CDLM Test REV EXP Co-integration Equation Test Statistics -1.771 0.254 10.605 Prob. 0.038 0.040 0.000 According to the results in Table 3; for the probability values are less than 0 .05, the crosssection dependence on the series and co-integration equation has been seen. In this case there is cross-section dependence among the countries which have formed the panel. A shock which has come from one of the countries, affects the others. While testing the unit root and co-integration, test methods must to be taking into account the cross-section dependence. On account of this, panel unit root test and co-integration analysis was made via methods which, which are considered the cross-sectional dependence. 5.4. Panel Unit Root Test The first problem, which encountered in the panel unit root tests, is whether or not the crosssectional units are independent each other. Panel unit root tests at this point are divided into first and second generation tests. The first generation unit root tests assumes that the units of forming panel are independent each other. First-generation unit root tests are divided into homogeneous and heterogeneous models. While Levin, Lin and Chu (2002), Breitung (2000) and Hadri (2000) take consider 242 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo the homogen model; Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), Choi (2001) take consider the heterogen model. However, when a shock comes from on a unit, other units are affected by different levels is more realistic approach. To resolve this dilemma, the second generation unit root tests have been developed which considers to the cross-section dependency. Prominent second generation unit root tests are MADF (Taylor and Sarno, 1998), SURADF (Breuer, Mcknown and Wallace, 2002), CADF (Pesaran, 2006), and Bai and Ng (2004) In this study, since cross-sectional dependence among countries has been determined, stationarity of the series has been tested with Pesaran, (2006) CADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller Cross-sectionally). ADF extended terms of cross-section in this test. It assumed the error term consist of two parts; a common parts and a specific parts to each series. Equation form of this expression is as follows: Yit  iYi ,t 1  uit (3) uit  i ft   it (4) In this equation, ft; unobservable represent a common element is always assumed to be stationary. Specific item in the series is εit independent and identical distributed. In this model cross-section dependence, originates from the existence of unobservable common item is assumed. The test hypotheses are as follows: H0: i  0 There is unit root. H1: i  0 There is not unit root. At first CADF statistics calculated for each country. These calculated values are compared with Pesaran (2006) table values. If calculated CADF value is smaller than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So there isn’t unit root in this country data and shocks are temporary. Later to decide whether or not unit root is existed in general of panel; by calculating arithmetic mean of CADF values of all countries, statistic of CIPS is obtained. The test hypotheses are CIPS same as CADF. Equation of CIPS is as follows: N CIPS   CADF i 1 i (5) N Calculated CIPS value is compared with Pesaran (2006) table values. If calculated CIPS value is smaller than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So there isn’t unit root in this panel data and shocks are temporary for all units. CADF and CIPS statistics calculated and results were given in Table 4. Table 4: Results of CADF and CIPS Tests Country p Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark France 4 5 4 1 1 4 EXP CADF Statistic -5.00 -3.91 -5.28 -3.08 -2.32 -3.12 243 p 1 2 1 2 3 4 REV CADF Statistic -3.69 -2.45 -4.11 -2.97 -2.29 -2.15 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Greece 1 -2.08 5 -2.47 Ireland 5 -4.79 4 -2.26 Italy 4 -4.03 5 -1.99 Latvia 5 -5.26 2 -3.93 Lithuania 1 -4.20 1 -3.37 Malta 2 -4.04 1 -3.53 Netherlands 3 -3.70 1 -3.74 Poland 3 -3.90 2 -3.54 Portugal 4 -4.81 2 -2.78 Romania 1 -4.41 1 -3.20 Slovak Republic 5 -4.36 2 -2.83 Slovenia 4 -1.81 1 -3.31 Spain 1 -3.60 2 -2.78 Turkey 4 -2.04 3 -3.23 United Kingdom 4 -3.82 1 -2.45 CIPS Statistic -3.80 -3.02 Note: Critic values get from; Pesaran (2006) pp. 46 Table 1c for 1% significance level is = - 4.96’dır. Since the computed CIPS statistics are not smaller than the table critic value, so H0 is accepted and it is concluded that panel unit root is existed in the series of panel. In this case, series are nonstationary at level15. This case is showing that the effects of shocks from the economies of the countries don’t lost immediately. For series are nonstationary, to analyze the relationship between the series of co-integration is decided. 5.5. Panel Co-integration Analysis Long-run relationship between variables, analysis via panel co-integration method is widely used in empirical analysis (Pedroni, 1999; Pedroni, 2004; Westerlund 2007; Westerlund ve Edgerton, 2007; Westerlund, 2008). At this stage of the study, firstly between series existence of co-integration was determined, after; individual and panel co-integration coefficients were estimated. 5.5.1. Testing the Existence of Co-integration Relationship At this stage of the study, the sustainability of budget deficits was analyzed by means of the co-integration between the revenue and expenditure series. Cross-section dependency was observed, co-integration of the panel presence, was tested by the Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method. The test hypotheses are as follows: H0: There is co-integration relationship. H1: There isn’t co-integration relationship. 15 It is seen EXP series of Austria, Cyprus and Latvia stationary in level value, namely I(0). In this situation looking to CIPS statistic (Pesaran, 2006). According to CIPS statistic, in the entire of panel is I(1). Addition for panel co-integration analysis applied via Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method, because this method permis so long as dependent variable I(1), independent variables can be I(1) or I(0). So the risk was eliminated. 244 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Estimated Durbin-H statistics values are compared with normal distribution table values. If estimated value is bigger than the table the critical value, H0 is rejected. So it is decided that the presence of the co-integration relationship between series. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method, the presence of co-integration relationship between the dimension of group and panel is separately tested. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H group co-integration test; the autoregressive parameter is allowed to differ between cross-sections. In this test, when H0 hypothesis is rejected, there is co-integration relationship for at least some sections. In Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H panel co-integration test; the autoregressive parameter is considered to be the same for all cross-sections. Under this assumption, when H0 hypothesis is rejected, there is co-integration relationship for all sections. (Di Iorio and Fachin, 2008; Bayar, Güloğlu and Selman, 2011). Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H-test was applied and results can be seen in Table 5. Table 5: Results of Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H Test Durbin-H Group Statistic 109.907 Durbin-H Panel Statistic 0.227 Note: Normal distribution critic values for 5% significance level is = 1.645. It was seen that estimated group statistic, larger than 1.645 critical values. In this case, H0 hypothesis was rejected for the group. It was decided to there are co-integration relationships between budget revenues and expenditures in some countries in the panel and budget deficits are sustainable in these countries. It has been seen that obtained panel statistic smaller than the critical value. So H0 hypothesis was accepted, and in this case, the panel co-integration relationship between budget revenues and expenditures are not to be existed. In conclusion, it was decided to budget deficits were unsustainable in the entire the panel. 5.5.2. Finding Coefficients of Co-integration In order to estimate the long term coefficients CCE (Common Correlated Effects) method, which is developed by Pesaran (2006) to consider the cross-sectional dependence, is used. CCE test results are shown in Table 6. Table 6: Results of CCE Test Country Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark France Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Malta Netherlands Poland Long-term Co-integration Coefficients 0.263 0.531 0.597 0.599 0.298 0.14 0.075 0.081 0.1 0.312 0.397 0.124 0.236 0.447 245 t Statistics 1.12 2.39 2.94 13.02 0.76 1.05 0.43 1.88 0.54 1.62 3.89 0.35 1.70 4.22 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Turkey United Kingdom CCMGE 0.641 0.398 0.383 0.302 0.229 0.353 0.091 0.11 4.06 3.59 8.33 5.92 1.33 20.76 1.78 1.86 In Table 6, the long-term co-integration coefficients are smaller than 1. According to Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Quintos (1995), budget deficits in these countries are unsustainable. Under the assumption that long-term co-integration parameters of countries are homogeneous, CCMGE (Common Correlated Mean Group Effects) were estimated. This method developed Pesaran (2006). CCMGE is estimated by averaging the values of the group. This estimation was made and obtained 0.11. This coefficient is smaller than 1. Therefore, in this countries budget deficits are unsustainable in the long run. 6.RESULTS AND DISCUSSION In this study, sustainability of budget deficit has been examined for 20 EU countries which their budget deficit exceed %3 of GDP in year 2011 and Turkey by means of under crosssection dependence panel unit root and panel co-integration tests for period of 2000-2011. The cross-section dependency for variables and co-integration equation were tested via Pesaran (2004) CDLM method. As a result of this analysis cross-section dependency was determined. In this case, a shock comes from one of these countries that affect the others, too. To that end, policy-determining nations, in interaction can be said that they needed to consider the developments relating to the country. For cross-sectional dependence is determined on the panel, while selecting the panel unit root and co-integration tests, this must be take into account. Therefore, taking into account the dependence of cross-sectional study, panel unit root test and co-integration analysis that takes into account the dependence of cross-sectional methods are used. Panel unit root was tested by means of Pesaran (2006) CADF and CIPS and the series were found nonstationary. This situation shows that the effects of shocks have not lost to the economies of the countries. The presence of the panel co-integration relationship is tested by Westerlund (2008) Durbin-H method. When co-integration relationship determined for some countries, in the entire of panel co-integration relationship couldn’t determined. From this remark the budget deficits are unsustainable for these countries. Long-term individual co-integration coefficients have been estimated via Pesaran (2006) CCE method, panel co-integration coefficient is estimated through CCGME method. It is found that in these countries the budget deficit is unsustainable according to Rush Hakio (1991) and Quintos (1995). As the co-integration coefficient is smaller than 1. The empirical findings have shown that budget deficits are unsustainable in the long term in those countries. 246 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo REFERENCES Akçay, O. C., Alper C. E. and Özmucur S. (2001) Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence From Turkey (1970-2000), Boğaziçi University Department of Economics, WP, 12, İstanbul. Anand, R. and Wijnbergen V.S. (1989) Inflation and Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with An Application to Turkey, World Bank Economic Review, 3(1): 17-38. Arestis, P., Cipollini A. and Fattouh B. 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(1998) Sustainability of Budget Deficits in Turkey with Structural Shift, METU Studies in Development, 25(1): 107-127. Panagiotis, P., Emmanouil T., Athanasenas L. A. and Constantinos K. (2009) On the Dynamics of the Greek Twin Deficits: Empirical evidence Over the Period 1960-2007, International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 2(2): 9-32. Payne, R. (1996) Announcement Effects and Seasonality in Intra-day Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility, London School of Economics, DP, 238. Payne, J.E., Hassan M. and Cak M. (2008) Turkish Budget Deficit Sustainability and The Revenue-Expenditure Nexus, APPLIED ECONOMICS, (7): 823-830. Pesaran, M. H. (2004) General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435. Peseran, H. (2006) A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependecy, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 0346. Quintos, C. E. (1995) Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13: 409–417. Roberds, W. (1991) Implications of Expected Present Value Budget Balance: Application to Postwar U.S. Data, In Rational Expectations Econometrics, Edited by Lars Hansonand Thomas Sargent. Boulder: Westview Press. Rubio, O. B., Roldán C. D. and Esteve V. (2006) Is The Budget Defict Sustainable When Fiscal Policy is Nonlinear? The Case of Spain, Journal of Macroeconomics, 28: 596–608. Sriwardana, K. M. M. (1998) An Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Sri Lanka, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Staff Studies, Volume:27-28, pp: 80-111. Şen, H. Sağbaş İ. and Keskin A. (2010) Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirliğin Analizi: 19752007, Maliye Dergisi, 158. Taylor, M. and Sarno, L. (1998) The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the PostBretton Woods Period, Journal of International Economics, 46: 281-312. Trehan, B. and Walsh C. E. (1988) Common Trends, the Government Budget Constraint, and Revenue Smoothing, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 425-44. Westerlund, J. (2008) Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23: 193‐233. Wilcox, D. W. (1989) The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the PresentValue Borrowing Constraint, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 21: 291-306. 249 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo A Comparison Of Futures Prices On Turkdex With Conventional Pricing Theory Kusakci Ali Osman, Kusakci,Sumeyye International University of Sarajevo, Ilidza, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mails: akusakci@ius.edu.ba,skusakci@ius.edu.ba Abstract Derivatives are very sophisticated financial innovations and require highly sophisticated financial markets before they are introduced successfully. The well-known arbitrage free pricing theory applied when pricing derivative securities is based on some assumptions, which may not be verified in many of the emerging markets. Therefore, the applicability of the conventional theory to the emerging markets must be studied in details. This paper questions conformity of conventional arbitrage free pricing theory for emerging markets and discusses efficiency on newly organized Turkish derivative exchange (TURKDEX). Based on the market data in Turkey a comparison will be made between daily market prices and theoretical prices of 43 futures contracts. The results show that currency futures in TURKDEX are evaluated by market players fairly but ISE-30 and ISE-100 contracts offer arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, this work shows that theory and market differences rely mainly on inexperienced market players and newly established market regulations. Conservative regulations on short-selling are another problem to be solved. Keywords: futures, TURKDEX, cost of carry, arbitrage theory, emerging markets, pricing 1.INTRODUCTION Forward and future contracts are two basic types of derivatives, where they referred in the literature as unconditional derivatives (Daniel Siegel & Diane Siegel 1990).While evaluating them, the basic pricing approach is “cost of carry” approach (CC). CC is derived from an arbitrage-free market theory, while an arbitrage-free market is characterized as follows (Rudolph & Schäfer 2010);     There is no taxes, transaction and information cost Short selling is allowed All market players have the same opportunities on the market A cash flow stream and a derivative instrument can be arbitrarily divided. However, the above mentioned assumptions are only valid for a well-developed market and can be justified only under the well-known efficient market hypothesis (EMH) according to which the current price of a stock fully reflects, at any time, available information exploited by traders. As new information becomes available, any imbalance is immediately detected and accounted for by a counteracting change in stock market price (Fama 1965). Thus, the prices follow random walk and there are no clear arbitrage opportunities on an efficient market (Malkiel 2003; Atsalakis & Valavanis 2009). This, however, requires high liquidity, sufficient depth and well informed market participants. On the other hand, emerging financial markets, like Turkish capital market, may exhibit a different profile and may suffer from low 250 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1300 Title A name given to the resource Budget Deficits Sustainability Of Selected Eu Countries And Turkey: Panel Cointegration Analysis Author Author İsmet , Göçer Abstract A summary of the resource. Sustainability of budget deficits is one of the most important macroeconomic problems in most countries. High public spending and insufficiency of public revenue are main reasons collapsing of Greek, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland economies. For this reason, the conservation of budget balance and sustainability of budget deficits have a great importance. In this study; in selected 20 European Union countries and Turkey, the sustainability of budget deficit was analyzed with via under cross-section dependence panel co-integration analysis. At the end of the analysis; cross-section dependence was determined in these countries. Therefore, an economic shock which will come to one of these countries, affects the others, too. For this reason, the shocks that have been come to series don’t eliminate in the long term Co-integration relationship couldn't found between these series. Consequently, it has been seen budget deficits of these countries were unsustainable in the long term. Keywords: Budget Deficits, Sustainability, Cross-Section Dependence, Panel Co-integration Analysis. Jel Codes: C23, G18, H61, H62. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/72b187a678978a46fdf2577f88ae4dfb.pdf 3c79ef495b284ce82926e8007ffe2316 PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Effects of Basic Macroeconomic Prices on Manufacturing Industry Production in Turkey İlknur Pulak Taras, Gülçin Manzak Aydin, Demet Barlin Harmankaya E-mails: ilknur.pulak@sanayi.gov.tr, gulcin.manzak@sanayi.gov.tr demet.barlin@sanayi.gov.tr Abstract In this research; the effects of macroeconomic prices, such as interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices and wages, on Turkish manufacture industry production in the period 19922008 are investigated. The aim of the research is to bring current macroeconomic policies in Turkey up for discussion once more. In this framework, the economic policies implemented in Turkey since 1980 are elaborated in the first place in order to interpret the economic trends between the years 1992 and 2008 ideally. Then for the purpose of analyzing the mentioned relations, various econometric methods are used. First of all, ARDL Bound Test is applied to series in order to investigate the long run relationship among them. Secondly, causality relationships are questioned by using Granger Causality Test based on Hsiao Approach; and impulse-response functions and variance decomposition tables obtained from Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) are elaborated. At last, findings are evaluated within the economic framework drawn beforehand and the research is concluded by policy proposals. Accordingly, long run relationship among variables cannot be found, however at the end of causality tests all the variables except real wages are found to be “Granger cause of production”. Moreover, the impulse-response functions put forward that the production reacted negatively to real interest rate, positively to real effective exchange rate and negatively to real energy prices. The coefficient derived for real wages, on the other hand, is discovered to be insignificant. This can be explained by the export orientation policy that has targeted foreign demand instead of domestic. Above all, it should not be neglected that real wage level deserves considerable interest since it determines wealth of the majority of society. As a result of the analyses and assessments in the research, it can be concluded that these variables can and should be utilized as efficient and essential policy tools. Keywords: interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices, real wage, Turkish manufacture industry, ARDL Bound Test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model 1.INTRODUCTION The question of whether development is succeeded by the hands of state or market mechanism (state vs. market) takes a central place in development economics literature. Although the answers include theoretical and ideological aspects, historical experiences enlighten these questions. Besides the West European countries, the experiences of South Eastern countries are elaborated again and again in this context. Although both sides underlined the elements that support their arguments, there is little evidence pointing out that only the market mechanism provides sufficient instruments for development. Rather, it seems that industrialization could not be achieved without control and supervision of the state at specific time and situations. 381 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo As for the dominant paradigm, Neoclassical Economics claims that free market economy creates the best conditions for all countries and prices are directive in case of deviances from equilibrium. The equilibrium price of a commodity/factor is said to illustrate the point where the supply and demand become equal and thus demanded production also equals demanded consumption. In summary, according to the Neoclassical model, prices should be determined under free market conditions and the actors would behave rationally with respect to these prices which could not be affected by individual actors under “perfect competition”. At this point, the general price level is determined in national market, energy prices in its own market, exchange rate and interest rate in the money market and lastly wages in the labor market in real world. Beyond these assumptions of Neoclassical Economics, price is not only an endogenous value determined by the associated demand and supply but also effective on them. As Keynes pointed out after 1929 Great Depression, interest rate is, ceteris paribus, effective on investment and exchange rate, ceteris paribus, on balance of payments. As for other prices from a supply side viewpoint, energy prices contribute directly to production cost and wage level is distinctive for production level by its functions both as a cost item and as a main component of demand. In fact, this study is based on the view arguing that utilizing those prices as policy tools in controlling the related variables (investment, import, export, production) are another choice among different economic policies. Multidimensional policy choices are significant since real economic relations are much more complicated than those in free markets idealized by Neoclassical Economics. In fact in real world, all prices are intervened to be held within boundaries determined by certain macroeconomic policies. For instance the main policy in Turkey since 2001 has been to control inflation by intervening interest rate while leaving the exchange rate to fluctuation. This is a policy choice among many others. This choice depends on policy makers’ priorities determined in the framework of current targets and economic relations. In this framework, this article aims to reevaluate the macroeconomic policies implemented in Turkey. For this reason, the effects of variables like interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices and wages on manufacture production are investigated by using various econometric methods. First of all, the series are put to cointegration test in order to investigate long term relation between them. Then causal relations are analyzed by using Granger Causality Test with Hsiao Approach. At last, Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is applied to see the effects of variables on production and impulse-response functions and variance decomposition tables are examined. Meanwhile the study is limited by the years between 1992 and 2008 for which continuous time series data for all of these variables are available. Since the policies after 1980 constitute a persistent framework, the second section of this study is devoted to an overview of Turkey’s late economic history for the sake of better evaluation of economic developments in the period 1992-2008. In the third section, data set and method are explained and in the forth, findings are presented. In the fifth section, the results of the application are presented with their economic implications and the study is concluded by a general assessment. 2.Main Milestones of Turkish Economy after 1980 The similarities of macroeconomic policies implemented in developing/peripheral economies are said to be surprising. This can be explained by the close relation of these countries with developed ones, or the centre. Öniş and Şenses (2007) defined this situation with “reactive 382 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo state” concept and exemplified it for Turkey. Accordingly, even if the policy shifts are supported by domestic coalitions, the main factor behind this policy shifts has been external dynamics. In fact, like many other developing countries, policy-makers in Turkey have followed the major centers of international decision making like the World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Trade Organization (WTO) etc. In this direction, the post 1980 era can be summarized by Neoclassical dominance that promoted liberalization in all fields of the economy. More clearly, by 24th January 1980 Decisions an inward looking industrial model, import substitution was replaced by an outward looking model, export orientation. This transformation created an environment where free market strengthened its dominance and the state interventions were restricted within the economic area. This atmosphere was spreading all around the world by the decline of the Cold War conditions. Korkut Boratav (2004: 149) defined the post 1980 policies in these words: A foreign exchange policy worked in line with real devaluations; a more liberal import regime; export as a national priority supported by promotions and subsidies like expensive foreign currency49, cheap credit and tax return; abolition of price controls and subsidies on main commodities and macro policies towards the suppression of domestic demand are the key elements of 24th January Decisions. The policies implemented after 1980 including liberalization of trade and capital movements, privatization of state enterprises and pointing private sector as the locomotive of growth have been the most long-termed ones among similar policies. Meanwhile, the dependence of exports to imports influenced the external deficit in a negative way (Boratav, 2004: 161). This structural defect was tried to be fixed by continuous and high capital flows from abroad. For this aim, foreign exchange regime is liberalized in 1984 and capital movements in 1989. İnsel et al. (2004) evaluated this situation as the effort to fill the gap created by infrastructural deficiencies with liberal financial system. In a parallel way, financial liberalization had become a determinant element for the whole economy especially after 1990. For this reason, studies analyzing the mentioned period could not ignore the impact of financial sector. According to the study done by İnsel et al. (2004) the very first effects of financial liberalization in 1989 had been the increase in current account deficit and appreciation of TL. Therefore, external borrowing had increased by 223 % in the period 1989-1993. Likewise, the fact that the majority of capital flows were short termed and their outflows were not restricted or regulated paved the way for a series of financial crisis and resource transfer. As can be seen in Table 1 and 2, financial crises in 1994, 1999 and 2001 led reel growth decrease by values between 3 and 6 % according to the previous years. Table 1: Real Growth, Net Capital Flows and Unemployment Rate (1992-1998) Net Capital Flows Years Real Growth (%) (million $) 6.0 3,648 1992 1993 8.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.5 8,903 49 This situation is changed in an opposite way by the effect of capital movement liberalization in 1989. 383 8.9 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 1994 -5.5 -4,257 8.5 1995 7.2 4,565 7.6 1996 7.0 5,483 6.6 1997 7.5 6,969 6.8 1998 3.1 -840 6.9 Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (www.tuik.gov.tr) and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/) Date Accessed: 02.11.2009. Actually, the years after 1990 were differentiated in terms of commodity and capital flows from 1980s when some regulations somehow had been persisted (Kazgan, 1999: 175). In detail, the liberalization process controlled by the IMF and the WB at the beginning of 1980s was reinforced by new agreements signed in 1990s like General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) and Customs Union. Both agreements aimed to decrease national protection in trade and increase the capacity of world trade. However, the abolishment of protection in industrializing countries like Turkey promoted the importation50 of industrial goods instead of producing them in the country. This was supported by concessions offered by Customs Union Agreement. Accordingly, while Turkey decreased its tariffs almost to zero for the third parties, the developed countries decreased tariffs in textile, leather goods and rubber shoes, which are exported by the developing world, in small amounts such as from 15.5% to 12.1% (Kazgan, 1999: 177-178). As a result, exports as percentage of imports in Turkey decreased51 day by day besides the capital flows appreciating the domestic currency and thus imports are promoted instead of exports. Pamukçu and Yeldan (2005) emphasized two significant characteristics of the post-1990 era. Firstly, the growth after 1990 had been speculative-led, dependent on capital inflows and secondly, the growth could not create new employment, which is called jobless-growth. The reflections of the arguments can be observed in Table 1 where negative values in net capital flows represented capital outflows. It is acknowledged that in 1994 when capital outflows exceeded inflows, the growth rate had been – 5.5%. Similarly, in Table 2 it can be deducted that 2001 crisis was significant because of the big amount of net capital outflow compared to the net capital inflows or outflows in other years. Looking at these developments, it is not an exaggeration to claim that the high growth rates between 2002 and 2007 are compatible with continuous and big amounts of capital inflows. This can be deducted also from the fact that the slowdown of world capital in 2008 directly influenced the growth rate in Turkey. In other words, the contraction in 2008 created a decrease in net capital inflows which would continue in 2009 when the growth rates are negative. Table 2: Real Growth, Net Capital Flows and Unemployment Rate (1999-2008) Net Capital Flows Years Real Growth (%) (%) (million $) Unemployment Rate (%) 1999 -3.4 4,829 7.7 2000 6.8 9,584 6.5 50 As a result, nominal rate of protection decreased from 65 % in 1983 to 28.3 % in 1990 (Kazgan, 1999: 176). 51 While the value of exports as percentage of imports was 72.4 % between 1984 and 1989, this rate decreased to 55.8 % between 1993 and 1997 (Kazgan, 1999: 180). 384 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo 2001 -5.7 -14,557 8.4 2002 6.2 1,172 10.3 2003 5.3 7,192 10.5 2004 9.4 17,702 10.3 2005 8.4 42,660 10.3 2006 6.9 42,689 9.9 2007 4.7 48,637 10.3 2008 0.9 33,636 Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (www.tuik.gov.tr) and Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/) Date Accessed: 02.11.2009. 11 Another characteristic of the capital movements in this period has been that their inflows or outflows are random and volatile, which made the Turkish economy so fragile. Legislations aiming to promote long-term capital inflows instead of short-term or to set certain rules for capital outflows are some suggestions that could decrease the fragility and increase the stability. As mentioned before, the growth in this period was unable to create employment as much as the expected. The values in the 2nd and the 4th columns of the tables put forward the relationship between growth and unemployment. In detail, even in the years 2004 and 2005 when the Turkish economy grew by 9.4% and 8.4% respectively, the unemployment rates were above the 10% level. This situation set forth that the link between growth and physical investment which constitute the base for production has been weak. On the contrary, during the crisis years when the growth rates were below zero, the expected relation worked and the unemployment rates increased. For instance, the rate of unemployment increased from 6.5% in 2000 to 8.4% in 2001 and to 10.3% in 2002. Lastly, the increase in the rate to the level of 11% in 2008 due to global recession supported the expectation that this increase would continue in 2009. As a subset of the period of focus, years between 1998 and 2008 was also special since the IMF was effective on macroeconomic policies through uninterrupted stand-by agreements during the period. In the 2006 Report prepared by Independent Social Scientists, the year of 1998 was evaluated as a cornerstone in the Turkish Economic History as well as 24th January 1980 or the year 1989 when the capital movements were liberalized. In fact, it was the first time that macro policies were tied to the persistent relation between Turkey and the IMF within this period. According to the items in the programs following each other, free movements of international and national financial capital would be allowed, no intervention would be needed in terms of over appreciated value of TL, labor markets would be more flexible, state enterprises would be privatized and the state would be restructured depending on neoliberal understanding (Independent Social Scientists, 2006). 3.Data Set and the Method The data for wage “quarterly reel wage per hour worked in manufacture industry production” and for production “quarterly industrial production” were taken from Turkish Statistical Institute. For interest rate, “ex-post real interest rate” and for exchange rate “monthly real effective exchange rate” and for energy prices “electricity, gas and water” were used from the data set of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. All the data were transformed to quarter data on the same base year 1997 and the price effect was cleared. 385 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo In the first place, the graphics of the variables were analyzed and production series were adjusted seasonally. Then the situations of whether they were stationary or not were tested with ADF Test (Unit Root Test). The series including unit root were also applied structural breaks test in order to analyze their being stationary. ARDL Bound Test was used to analyze the long-term relationship. Since cointegration was not valid, the analyses were continued with lagged variables. Granger Causality Test with Hsiao Approach (1982) was used in investigating the one way causal relation of other variables toward production and the results of impulse-response functions and variance decomposition by using VAR Analysis were discussed. 4.Findings After required adjustments done mentioned above and Granger Causality Test is applied to variables, it is found that exchange rate, interest rate and energy prices Granger-cause manufacturing industry production in Turkey within the related period. As for wages, such a relation could not be identified for this term. Then application of VAR Analysis put forward the findings shown in Table 3 where “F” symbolized interest rate, “E” energy prices, “UC” wage level, “DK” exchange rate and “UR” production. Table 3: Variance Decomposition Table for D(UR) Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 S.E. F 0.041386 26.12569 0.045642 21.80958 0.049081 24.66460 0.050463 27.99220 0.050863 28.85729 0.051005 29.16273 0.051039 29.22121 0.051049 29.22451 0.051051 29.22371 0.051051 29.22310 D(E) 10.43293 17.90020 17.76381 17.17754 16.90906 16.85717 16.85599 16.87086 16.87515 16.87678 D(UC) 0.303792 1.188303 1.039880 1.085908 1.069230 1.079802 1.079802 1.080577 1.080618 1.080656 D(DK) 1.880974 8.713255 9.024850 8.758086 8.706563 8.685333 8.684548 8.682052 8.681462 8.681294 D(UR) 61.25661 50.38867 47.50686 44.98626 44.45786 44.21496 44.15845 44.14200 44.13907 44.13817 As seen from Table 3, the change in production is mostly explained by itself, which was followed by interest rate (with 26.13%), energy prices (with 10.43%), exchange rate (with 1.88%) and wages (with 0.3%). It is obvious that the explanation level of wage level has been pretty low. These findings have been parallel to those of the Granger Causality. After using variance decomposition, impulse-response functions seen below have been analyzed. Accordingly, the response of production to interest rate was negative in the first period with significant coefficients. The coefficients have been insignificant in the following periods. In a similar way, production reacted negatively to energy prices in the first two periods and then the coefficients became insignificant. As for the response of production to exchange rate it seemed to be positive for the first two periods and the coefficients became again insignificant in the others. Again in line with the previous findings, the coefficients in terms of wage level have been insignificant for all periods. The Response of D(UR) to F 386 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo The Response of D(UR) to D(E) The Response of D(UR) to D(UC) The Response of D(UR) to D(DK) 5. Conclusion and Remarks In this study, the relationship between the movements of macroeconomic prices, which appeared to be effective on production between 1992 and 2008, and the progress of production has been researched. The macroeconomic prices undertaken at this point have been restricted with interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices and wages. The findings of the econometric analysis have been evaluated with dominant economic policies of the period, which means that the movements of the variables have been discussed in the light of enforced programs. As it has been stated in the study of İnsel and Sungur (2003) covering the years of 1989-1999, free capital movements increased volatility in real and financial indicators and brought short-term perspective on economic programs. As a result of the liberalization of capital movements, the pressures on exchange rate, interest rate and other prices have risen. Nonetheless, this tendency of short-term perspective handicapped both the formation of longterm perspective required for a stable economy and the rise of investments towards 387 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo production. The paragraph below (Doğruel and Doğruel, 2008) has been instructive in terms of stating the main features of the period. In this long period exceeding 30 years since the second half of the 1970’s, the governments have approached the real economy through the framework of export increase and financial capital inflow; the focus of the policies has been on the inflation control and resource creation for economic sustainability, in other words, on the achievement of macro stability. Turkey’s long-term growth aim has lagged behind in this environment and a long-term action plan or approach for manufacturing industry could not have been formulated although considered from time to time. In the same direction, the simultaneous planning custom of policies for industry and international trade, which characterizes the industrialization strategy of 1960s and 1970s, has been given up after 1980. Due to commitments made to European Union and World Trade Organization, Turkey’s priorities have not been attached sufficient importance in international trade policies that could be used for supporting industrial development (Türel, 2007). Likewise, according to Şenses and Taymaz (2003), in the post 1980 era, external dynamics have been very effective on the formation of basic approaches and policies regarding industry. As a matter of fact, Turkey had been missed out the potential positive effects of national and international prices on production. This negative picture of Turkish economy has revealed the importance of this study, namely, the effect of changes in macroeconomic prices on manufacturing industry production. The general situation underlined as such has shown parallelism with objective findings of the study and has required an overview of enforced macroeconomic policies. It has been seen that the empirical findings of the study have supported the opinions and observations discussed through the study. To remember, real effective exchange rate does Granger-cause manufacturing industry production. Thus, any change in this variable had been effective on the future values of manufacturing industry. In fact, this result has provided the satisfactory evidence for the suggestion of using exchange rate as an effective policy instrument. Furthermore, impulse-response functions have shown that production has given positive reaction to exchange rate in the first two periods. As a reminder, increase in the exchange rate serial used in this study has indicated the appreciation of TL. At first sight, there has been an expectation that appreciation of TL would show a negative impact on production by promoting imports rather than exports in international trade. However apparently, the structure of national production dependent on imported inputs has caused the realization of a reverse relationship between exchange rate and production different from the expected one in the economic theory. That is to say, inputs and intermediate goods imported cheaply due to appreciated domestic currency have increased production between 1992 and 2008. Although this result could seem to be favorable at first, it should not be forgotten that the crucial point has been the increase in current account deficit. To put it another way, because of the production structure that is dependent on imports, Turkey’s high growth rates have caused a widening current account deficit. This situation, which gives way to savings balance deterioration, has increased the need for capital inflow and therefore has played a role in supporting free capital movements. It is clear that this cycle has created pressure on interest and therefore it became difficult leave high interest rate policy that has secured the continuity of capital inflow. If the findings in terms of interest rate have been analyzed, it is revealed that real interest rate does Granger-cause manufacturing industry production. This result, on its own, has shown that interest rate could and should be utilized positively for promoting production increases 388 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo besides inflation targeting. In addition, variance decomposition results have shown that the most effective variable on production has been interest rate and impulse-response functions showed that the reaction of interest rate to production was in negative direction in the first period. A relationship in this direction has been in line with the expectations of economic theory. As known, an increase in interest rate would have a negative impact on production because of its deterrent effect on investments. Besides, this situation has influenced the level of employment indirectly. Indeed, employment problem has been one of the most urgent problems to be handled since the official unemployment rates have been in double digits in Turkey. Even so, interest rate has been kept high due to the current restrictions. As stated, high interest rates have caused to reach high growth rates in Turkish economy by warranting hot money flow between 2002 and 2007. Nonetheless, these high rates have both put Turkish economy on the spot in refunding internal and external liabilities and have influenced income distribution negatively because of the economic growth without creating employment. These outcomes have pointed out that the particular variable that policy makers, who wanted to be effective on production, had to take into account had been interest rate. According to another result, energy prices which are taken into notice in terms of electricity, gas and water Granger-cause manufacturing industry production. Furthermore, variance decomposition results achieved by VAR Analysis have stressed that the second most distinctive variable on production has been energy prices after interest rate. In addition, when impulse-response functions were analyzed, it has been seen that production had given a negative reaction to increases in energy prices in the first two periods as expected. At this point, it is noteworthy to assert that the price of electricity in Turkey, which is used intensively in industry, has been higher than almost all OECD countries. The price of natural gas, which is reasonable with respect to that of electricity, has been important both as a primary resource used in industry and as a resource used in electricity production. On the other hand, since the natural gas is dependent on foreign resources, it has been hard to control its supply and price. All these motives have illustrated the significance of following and controlling energy prices for policy makers willing to increase production and income. In other words, regulation of the energy prices to foster production has been crucial for Turkish industry. In this direction, it has been found worthwhile to revise the decision about privatization of energy sector as has been offered as a solution since 2001. Last result of the study is that any change in real wages does not Granger-cause manufacturing industry production. Also, when impulse-response functions and variance decomposition results were analyzed, it was seen that coefficients determining the relationship between production and wages have been insignificant and the explanation level of wages in terms of understanding production has been significantly low. On the basis of this analysis, it could be concluded that the relationship between manufacturing industry sector and domestic demand has been weak. This finding seems to be neither surprising nor unreasonable for an economy that is based on export-led growth, dependent on foreign demand rather than the domestic. Above all, the social dimension of wages has to be taken into account rather than interpreting it solely as a macroeconomic price. This has been a considerable matter due to the fact that the number of people living in poverty in Turkey is increasing day by day. As a result of this situation that has taken its root from 1980 transformation, on the one hand the participation of economy to world trade has increased significantly, the structure of exports has shown an important change towards industrial products and on the other hand, the expected increases in production, employment, private 389 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo domestic and foreign investments have not been provided and real wage developments have shown an unstable outlook. To sum up, as indicated clearly in report of TÜSİAD, the deepening tendency of integration in the world economy after 1990s has been forcing all countries to review their industrial policies. This process has carried the potential of creating a deindustrialization process for developed and developing countries (Doğruel and Doğruel, 2008). The policy making that has to be implemented against this dangerous situation is the use of national resources in a productive way and to allocate them for pre-determined targets. Acknowledging the significance of fiscal policy52, the economy should be managed by a state, responsible not only for regulation but also for direction. Such an increase in production would provide a general improvement in welfare by both preventing unproductive use of resources and by increasing employment through new investments. REFERENCES Boratav, K. (2004) Türkiye İktisat Tarihi: 1908-2002, İmge Publishing, Ankara. Doğruel, S. and Doğruel, F. (2008) “Türkiye Sanayine Sektörel Bakış” TÜSİAD Report Edition No:466, İstanbul. Hsiao, C. (1982) “Autoregressive Modeling and Causal Ordering of Economic Variables”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Vol:4, 243-259. Independent Social Scientists 2006 Report (2006), IMF Gözetiminde On Uzun Yıl, 19982008: Farklı Hükümetler Tek Siyaset, Yordam Publishing, İstanbul. İnsel A. et al. (2004) “The Direction, Timing and Causality Relationships Between the Cyclical Components of Real and Financial Variables During the Financial Liberalization Period in Turkey”, TEK Discussion Text 2004/1, http://www.tek.org.tr, Date Accessed: 10.09.2009. İnsel A. and Sungur N. (2003) “Sermaye Akımlarının Temel Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği 1989:III-1999:IV”, TEK Discussion Text 2003/8 www.tek.org.tr, Date Accessed: 31.08.2009. Kazgan, G. (1999) Tanzimattan XXI. Yüzyıla Türkiye Ekonomisi: 1. Küreselleşmeden 2. Küreselleşmeye, Altın Kitaplar Publishing, İstanbul. OECD (2002) “Regulatory Reform in Electricity, Gas and Road Freight Transport” OECD Reviews of Regulatory Reforms: Regulatory Reform in Turkey, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/40/11/1840779.pdf, Date Accessed: 15.05.2010. Öniş, Z. and Şenses, F. (2007) "Global Dynamics, Domestic C oalitions and a Reactive State: Major Policy Shifts in Post-War Turkish Economic Development", METU Studies in Development, Vol. 34. No. 2, 251-286. 52 For policies discussed after 2008, see A. Spilimbergo, S. Symansky, O. Blanchard, C. Cottarelli (2008) “Fiscal Policy for the Crisis” IMF Research Department Position Note, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2008/spn0801.pdf, Date Accessed: 10.04.2010 390 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Pamukçu, T. and Yeldan, E. (2005) “Country Profile: Turkey, Macroeconomic Policy and Recent Economic Performance” Report prepared for Economic Research Forum, http://www.bilkent.edu.tr/~yeldane/FEMISE_Macro2005.pdf. Spilimbergo, A., Symansky, S., Blanchard, O. and Cottarelli, C. (2008) “Fiscal Policy for the Crisis” IMF Research Department Position Note, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2008/spn0801.pdf, Date Accessed: 10.04.2010. Şenses, F. and Taymaz, E. (2003) “Unutulan Bir Toplumsal Amaç: Sanayileşme Ne oluyor? Ne olmalı?”, in İktisat Üzerine Yazılar II, İktisadi Kalkınma, Kriz ve İstikrar, Oktar Türel’e Armağan, (ed. A.H.Köse, F.Şenses and E. Yeldan), İletişim Publishing, İstanbul, 429-461. Türel, O. (2007) “Türkiye’de Sanayileşme ve Kalkınma Planları Dönemsel Uygulamalar” TMMOB Industry Congress, Ankara. Consequences of financial crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina Fiscal and Monetary Policy Nađa Dreca International University of Sarajevo,Faculty of Business and Administration 71000, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina E-mails: nadja.dreca@students.ius.edu.ba, nadja_n88@hotmail.com Abstract Aim of this paper is to analyze effects did global financial crisis have on BiH’s economy and society in general. After examination of effects, it will be researched what are the policies that government has implemented in order to decrease negative effects. Both, fiscal and monetary policies will be examined, with special emphasize will on the stand by arrangement with IMF because it was often debated whether this arrangement was good or wrong movement of the government. Moreover, this paper will provide information about have did these measures affect society and especially certain interest groups, such as demobilized military. Finally when all of these above mentioned are analyzed and discussed, conclusions about efficiency of implemented policies will be made and proposals of what could be done will be developed. Keywords: global crisis, Monetary policy, Fiscal Policy, Central Bank 1. INTRODUCTION Government of Bosnia and Herzegovina introduced some measures aimed in cutting public administration costs and urge state-owned enterprise to devise saving plans. Bosnian government encourages public spending, new capital investments, building roads, open new projects. To conclude, BiH was doing pretty well until 2008, registering decent levels of 391 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1346 Title A name given to the resource The Effects of Basic Macroeconomic Prices on Manufacturing Industry Production in Turkey Author Author İlknur, Pulak Taras Abstract A summary of the resource. In this research; the effects of macroeconomic prices, such as interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices and wages, on Turkish manufacture industry production in the period 1992- 2008 are investigated. The aim of the research is to bring current macroeconomic policies in Turkey up for discussion once more. In this framework, the economic policies implemented in Turkey since 1980 are elaborated in the first place in order to interpret the economic trends between the years 1992 and 2008 ideally. Then for the purpose of analyzing the mentioned relations, various econometric methods are used. First of all, ARDL Bound Test is applied to series in order to investigate the long run relationship among them. Secondly, causality relationships are questioned by using Granger Causality Test based on Hsiao Approach; and impulse-response functions and variance decomposition tables obtained from Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) are elaborated. At last, findings are evaluated within the economic framework drawn beforehand and the research is concluded by policy proposals. Accordingly, long run relationship among variables cannot be found, however at the end of causality tests all the variables except real wages are found to be “Granger cause of production”. Moreover, the impulse-response functions put forward that the production reacted negatively to real interest rate, positively to real effective exchange rate and negatively to real energy prices. The coefficient derived for real wages, on the other hand, is discovered to be insignificant. This can be explained by the export orientation policy that has targeted foreign demand instead of domestic. Above all, it should not be neglected that real wage level deserves considerable interest since it determines wealth of the majority of society. As a result of the analyses and assessments in the research, it can be concluded that these variables can and should be utilized as efficient and essential policy tools. Keywords: interest rate, exchange rate, energy prices, real wage, Turkish manufacture industry, ARDL Bound Test, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Model Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance