118 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e04c5db0b57f54e9a07bdda49831abb1.pdf b2197890b25bffe294e2e0ecdf762b8e PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Forecasting EURO/TRY Exchange Rates With Artificial Neural Networks Ali Göksu International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina agoksu@ibu.edu.ba Olcay Erdoğan International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina olcay.erdogan@sarajevocollege.ba Forecasting of financial data has been a field of research since the efficiency of prediction is essential for future investments. Forecasting exchange rates is not a simple task because it is influenced by many factors and linear models are not able to capture nonlinear relationships in the data. Therefore Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in financial forecasting problems since it is capable of handling complex data. The aim of this study is to consider predictive accuracy of ANNs with SBP (Standard Back propagation) and normalized back propagation using the historical EUR/TRY exchange rates. The data is obtained from CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) and TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute) over the period 2008-2013. Several factors affect the accuracy of neural network in the implementation process. Various structures are built by changing the number of neurons, number of layers and learning algorithms to acquire higher performance. This empirical research has been a comparative study of accuracy in different ANN architectures. The results are evaluated by MSE (Mean Squared Error) values of each case and it has been found out that ANNs can closely forecast the future EUR/TRY exchange rates. Keywords: ANN, back propagation, exchange rate forecasting, financial time series 33 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1481 Title A name given to the resource Forecasting EURO/TRY Exchange Rates With Artificial Neural Networks Author Author GÖKSU, Ali ERDOGAN, Olcay Abstract A summary of the resource. Forecasting of financial data has been a field of research since the efficiency of prediction is essential for future investments. Forecasting exchange rates is not a simple task because it is influenced by many factors and linear models are not able to capture nonlinear relationships in the data. Therefore Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in financial forecasting problems since it is capable of handling complex data. The aim of this study is to consider predictive accuracy of ANNs with SBP (Standard Back propagation) and normalized back propagation using the historical EUR/TRY exchange rates. The data is obtained from CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) and TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute) over the period 2008-2013. Several factors affect the accuracy of neural network in the implementation process. Various structures are built by changing the number of neurons, number of layers and learning algorithms to acquire higher performance. This empirical research has been a comparative study of accuracy in different ANN architectures. The results are evaluated by MSE (Mean Squared Error) values of each case and it has been found out that ANNs can closely forecast the future EUR/TRY exchange rates. Keywords: ANN, back propagation, exchange rate forecasting, financial time series Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/7291aa5ec8bb358bffe5e56a27a1bf2c.pdf b1c5ff0a3eaeb6498f2f4d09d7cf5cb8 PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Artificial Neural Network and Traditional Smoothing Techniques Emrah Önder İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey emrah@İstanbul.edu.tr Fırat Bayır İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey firat.bayir@gmail.com Ali Hepşen İstanbul University, İstanbul, Turkey alihepsen@yahoo.com For many years, economists have been using statistical tools to estimate parameters of macroeconomic models. Forecasting plays a major role in macroeconomic planning and it is an essential analytical tool in countries’ economic strategies. In recent years, researchers are developing new techniques for estimation. Most of these alternative approaches have their origins in the computational intelligence. They have the ability to approximate nonlinear functions, parameters are updated adaptively. In particular, this research focuses on the application of neural networks in modeling and estimation of macroeconomic parameters. Neural networks have received an increasing amount of attention among macroeconomic forecasters because of the ability to approximate any linear and nonlinear relationship with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Turkey is one of the European Union candidate countries such as Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, and The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. In this study 13 macroeconomic indicators including gross domestic product (volume), current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation, average consumer prices, population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. In this study classical time series forecasting methods such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, Brown's single parameter linear exponential smoothing, Brown’s secondorder exponential smoothing, Holt's two parameter linear exponential smoothing and Winter's linear and seasonal exponential smoothing were applied to macroeconomic data. The study focuses mainly on the 98 �International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo applicability of artificial neural network model for forecasting macroeconomic parameters in long term and comparing the artificial neural network’s results with the Traditional Time Series Analysis (Smoothing Techniques). To facilitate the presentation, an empirical example is developed to forecast Turkey’s important macroeconomic parameters. Time Series statistical theory and methods are used to select an adequate technique, based on residual analysis. Turkey will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its foundation in 2023. Policies and implementations targeted for raising economic position. Keywords: Macro Economic Parameters, Economic Growth, Artificial Neural Network, Forecasting, Smoothing, Time Series, Turkey. 99 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1528 Title A name given to the resource Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Artificial Neural Network and Traditional Smoothing Techniques Author Author ONDER, Emrah BAYIR, Firat HEPSEN, Ali Abstract A summary of the resource. For many years, economists have been using statistical tools to estimate parameters of macroeconomic models. Forecasting plays a major role in macroeconomic planning and it is an essential analytical tool in countries’ economic strategies. In recent years, researchers are developing new techniques for estimation. Most of these alternative approaches have their origins in the computational intelligence. They have the ability to approximate nonlinear functions, parameters are updated adaptively. In particular, this research focuses on the application of neural networks in modeling and estimation of macroeconomic parameters. Neural networks have received an increasing amount of attention among macroeconomic forecasters because of the ability to approximate any linear and nonlinear relationship with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Turkey is one of the European Union candidate countries such as Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, and The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. In this study 13 macroeconomic indicators including gross domestic product (volume), current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation, average consumer prices, population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. In this study classical time series forecasting methods such as moving averages, exponential smoothing, Brown's single parameter linear exponential smoothing, Brown’s secondorder exponential smoothing, Holt's two parameter linear exponential smoothing and Winter's linear and seasonal exponential smoothing were applied to macroeconomic data. The study focuses mainly on the applicability of artificial neural network model for forecasting macroeconomic parameters in long term and comparing the artificial neural network’s results with the Traditional Time Series Analysis (Smoothing Techniques). To facilitate the presentation, an empirical example is developed to forecast Turkey’s important macroeconomic parameters. Time Series statistical theory and methods are used to select an adequate technique, based on residual analysis. Turkey will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its foundation in 2023. Policies and implementations targeted for raising economic position. Keywords: Macro Economic Parameters, Economic Growth, Artificial Neural Network, Forecasting, Smoothing, Time Series, Turkey. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/57db62bbdb5b5b9bebb0318fe430ff87.pdf ff8e81725c8104cf4e2397b79fee8e44 PDF Text Text 1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Forecasting of Construction Growth and Investment in Turkey Filiz ÖZKAN Kaynarca Seyfettin Selim Vocational School Sakarya University, Kaynarca, Sakarya, Turkey fozkan@sakarya.edu.tr Ömer ÖZKAN Department of Construction Sakarya University Sakarya, Turkey omerozkan@sakarya.edu.tr Abstract: The construction sector is regarded as a significant factor influencing economic policies in developing countries like Turkey. Construction investments play an important role in short term economic growth whereas infrastructure investments are vital in long term growth. Developing countries utilize their construction sectors as regulators. In this study, forecasting of construction growth and construction investment was analyzed in Turkey. ARIMA models were used in this study for forecasting of Construction growth and construction investments. It has been seen that, the variables taken at hand is explained at an important rate with their own delayed variables. Introduction Construction industry and investment is an important determinant in developing economies. Developing countries utilize their construction sectors as regulators. These investments affected by the government policies as governments usually regulate the economy (Wigren and Wilhelmsson, 2007; Easterly and Rebelo,1999; Canning et al., 1994; Sanchez-Robles 1998). That is, they tend to lessen construction projects and cut off funds fostering this sector when the economy enters a very rapid growth pace and refresh the sector when the economy suffers from demand shortage and the unemployment rate increases. The construction sector relate to activities of capital investments in construction. Construction products are a function of investments made in other sectors. This sector has undertaken a key role in transition from economic stagnation to growth in terms of the inputs it utilizes and employment it creates, its contribution to the national revenue, its role in creating new employment fields and opportunities and its relation with other industries Öcal et al. (2007). Construction sector investments have been classified as Building+Residential (Government), Building+Residential (private) investment and infrastructure. Except from Building+Residential (private) these sectors investments have effects of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There is a clear cointegration between “GDP-infrastructure investments” and “GDP-building+residental (government) investments”. It has been concluded that the long term relation in infrastructure investments are not affected by economic shocks in the short run; however building and residential (government) investments are affected by short term shocks (Ozkan and Ozkan, 2009). Because of this, the estimates of construction investments take place an important place at the economies in economical crisis. When it is reviewed that one of the important reasons of the economical crisis boomed in year 2008 is the mortgage financial system, its importance increases once more. In this study, forecasting of Construction growth and construction investment was analyzed in Turkey. ARIMA models are used in this study for forecasting of Construction growth and construction investments. Construction growth and investment data (1987-2007 June periods) used in this study. Data and Economic Model Data collection In this study makes use of construction growth items. This items are Infrastructure Investment, Building+residental (government), Building+residental (private) investments monthly data. Data have been collected from statistics of Central Bank of Republic of Turkey. Construction growth, infrastructure, building and residential (government), building and residential (private) refers to current prices and 1987:01-2007:01 364 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo period level expenditure data. Values are given in New Turkish Lira. In the analysis stage, logarithmic values pertaining to series were used and series have been cleared off seasonal effects as well as the trend effect. Series’ stationary structures have been analyzed via Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test. ARIMA test has been employed in order to forecast. Unit Root Test The unit root test is executed by way of the following formulation. n ∆Yt = a + ρYt −1 + δT + ∑ b1i ∆Yt −i + ε t i =1 i= 1,2,…,n (1) ∆Yt=Yt-Yt-i, (2) α, is a drift term, and T is the time trend with the null hypothesis, n is the number of lags necessary to obtain white noise and ε is the error term. Note that failing to reject Ho implies the time series is non-stationary. Ho: ρ=0, H1: ρ≠0, (3) Arima Models ARIMA models are, in theory, the most general class of models for forecasting a time series which can be stationarized by transformations such as differencing and logging. In fact, the easiest way to think of ARIMA models is as fine-tuned versions of random-walk and random-trend models: the fine-tuning consists of adding lags of the differenced series and/or lags of the forecast errors to the prediction equation, as needed to remove any last traces of autocorrelation from the forecast errors. A common approach for modeling unvaried time series is the autoregressive (AR) model: Yt = αo + α1Yt-1 + α2Yt-2 + …+ αn Yt-n + ut (4) Another common approach for modeling unvaried time series models is the moving average (MA) model: Yt = αo + α1ut - α2ut-1 - …- αn ut-n (5) Where Yt is the time series, ao is the mean of the series, ut-i are white noise, and α1……. α n are the parameters of the model. The value of n is called the order of the MA model. Box and Jenkins detailed an approach that combines the moving average and the autoregressive approaches in the book (Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel, 1994). Box and Jenkins was in developing a systematic methodology for identifying and estimating models that could incorporate both approaches. This makes BoxJenkins models a powerful class of models. The most general Box-Jenkins model includes difference operators, autoregressive terms, moving average terms, seasonal difference operators, seasonal autoregressive terms, and seasonal moving average terms. This stage is founded on the study of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation (Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel, 1994; Dobre and AnaMaria, 2008) The Box-Jenkins ARMA model is a combination of the AR and MA models as follows: Yt = ao + a1Yt-1 + a2Yt-2 + …+ an Yt-n + ut + b1ut-1 + … + bput-p (6) Forecasting Result and Discussion Unit Root Test Results Forecasting of construction growth and investment are analyzed in Macro-economic time series are generally characterized by unit root of the stochastic process which reveals the relevant datum. Generalized ADF unit roots tests were employed in this study to determine time series characteristics of data. The fixed term model with trend was used in ADF unit root test. The results of ADF unit root test on series are presented in [Table 1]. Table 1: Unit root test results Level Difference ADF Lag ADF Lag Construction Growth -0.34 3 -8.44 3 Private (Build.+Res.) -0.90 1 -6.91 6 Public (Build.+Res.) -0.631 4 -14.1 2 Infrastruture -1.19 6 -11.6 2 Note: Numbers in lag column represent lag numbers determined according to the Schwartz criteria. McKinnon critical values for fixed term ADF model with trend are as follows: -3.46for %1, -2.87 for %5, -2.57 for %10. 365 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo According to ADF test results, Construction Growth, Private (Build.+Res.), Public (Build.+Res.) and Infrastruture investment series are not stationary [I(1)]. Series were differentiated of order one to become stationary. Graphics of series in non-stationary and stationary status are presented in [Figure 1, 2, 3 and 4]. 0.3 16 0.2 14 0.1 12 0.0 10 -0.1 8 -0.2 6 -0.3 4 -0.4 88 90 92 94 96 Non-stationary series 98 00 02 years 04 06 88 90 92 94 96 CONSTGROWTH 00 02 CONST GROW T H Figure1: Infrastructure investment Figure 2: Private (Build.+Res.) investment Figure 3: Public (Build.+Res.) investment 366 98 Non-stationary series 04 years 06 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo Figure 4: Infrastructure investment ARIMA Test Results [Table 2] show ARIMA model results for Construction Growth, Private (Build.+Res.), Public (Build.+Res.) and infrastructure investments. Coefficients b0 AR(3) AR(9) AR(12) MA(3) MA(6) MA(9) MA(12) Table 2: ARIMA Model Regression Results Construction Private Public Growth (Build.+Res.) (Build.+Res.) Infrastruture -0.003 -0.01 -0.006 -0.001 (0.65) (0.39) (0.72) (0.85) 0.11 0.52 -0.50 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) -0.11 (0.00) 0.58 0.79 0.34 -0.32 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) -0.38 -1.01 0.21 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 0.38 0.26 -0.21 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) -0.19 (0.00) 0.35 0.75 (0.00) (0.00) Special Statistics Construction Private Public Coefficients Growth (Build.+Res.) (Build.+Res.) R2 0.50 0.71 0.32 DW 2.08 2.09 2.05 Fprob. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.31 0.09 LM Test (0.66) (0.72) (0.91) 4.25 1.68 1.25 ARCH Test (0.04) (0.19) (0.26) Infrastruture 0.36 2.09 0.00 0.13 (0.87) 1.46 (0.22) Models of estimates have been constructed for Construction Growth, Private (Build.+Res.), Public (Build.+Res.) and infrastructure investments. When the results are examined, it is seen in the construction growth variables’ forecasting models that it is usually the most explanatory variable the value of the variable 367 �1. International Symposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo which explains best the period to be estimated related to its period of one year ago. Besides this, it is seen that the periods which are retarded from the period to be estimated of 3,6 and 9 months are also effective. When it is looked at the general construction growth results, R2 values are calculated as 0.50, 0.71, 0.32 and 0.36 in order. These results express that general construction growth is explained at the rate of R2 with its own retarded values. For the reason that Turkish economy does not have a completely stable structure, as the economical variables are affected from other external effects, only its retarded variables and explanation rate are at the values to be taken into consideration. Conclusion In the studies at where the relationship between economical growth and construction growth is examined, the existence of a strong mutual relationship is emphasized. It is clearly seen in the studies that construction growth is used as a regulator especially at countries which are developing. The assumption that the crisis experienced in the world is sourced by the mortgage financial crisis and that the exit from the crisis shall be with the normalization which shall be attained at the construction sector carries a quality to validate these studies. For this reason, in our study, an estimate model of the construction growth has been constructed. . In our study, the Construction growth, private (Build.+Res.), Public (Build.+Res.) and infrastructure investments estimate models of year 1987-2006 has been constructed. For this purpose, in our study, it is looked at the stagnancy structures of the series with ADF unit root test and ARIMA estimate model has been constructed. It is reached to the conclusion that the rate of explaining the data of which their estimate models have been constructed with their own variables is not very high and this result from the structure of the Turkish economy which is not completely stable and that it is affected from many other external factors. References Wigren, R. and Wilhelmsson, M. (2007). Construction investments and economic growth in Western Europe. Journal of Policy Modeling, 29, 439–451. Easterly, W. and Rebelo, S. (1993). Fiscal policy and economic growth: an empirical investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 417– 458. Canning, D., Fay, M. and Perotti, R., (1994). Infrastructure and growth. In: Bsaldassarri, M., Paganetto, M., Phelps, E.S. (Eds.), International Differences in Growth Rates. St. Martins Press. New York. 285– 310. Sanchez-Robles, B. (1998). Infrastructure investment and growth: some empirical evidence. Contemporary Economic Policy, 16, 98–108. Ocal, M.E., Oral Laptali E., Erdis, E. & Vural, G. (2007). Industry financial ratios-application of factor analysis in Turkish Construction Industry. Building and Environment, 42, 385-392. Özkan, F., Özkan, Ö. (2009). Construction Investment And Economic Growth: Turkey. International Conference of Arts,Science,Management and Engineering. April 23-25, Goa, India. Box. G. E. P., Jenkins. G. M. and Reinsel. G. C. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Forecasting and Control. 3rd ed.. Prentice Hall. Englewood Clifs. Dobre, I. and AnaMaria, A.A. (2008). Modelling Unemployment Rate Using Box-Jenkins Procedure. Journal of Applied Quantitative Methods, 3 (2). 156-166. 368 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 259 Title A name given to the resource Forecasting of Construction Growth and Investment in Turkey Author Author ÖZKAN, Filiz ÖZKAN, Ömer Abstract A summary of the resource. The construction sector is regarded as a significant factor influencing economic policies in developing countries like Turkey. Construction investments play an important role in short term economic growth whereas infrastructure investments are vital in long term growth. Developing countries utilize their construction sectors as regulators. In this study, forecasting of construction growth and construction investment was analyzed in Turkey. ARIMA models were used in this study for forecasting of Construction growth and construction investments. It has been seen that, the variables taken at hand is explained at an important rate with their own delayed variables. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2009-06 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/7e46aba2ba435bdb0adfbfbc68a11a92.docx 74f301296e782d0367737e7bfc701f6a https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/c16c89a6060fb4d8c9074e2e98021031.pdf 94b4238e47ec58887f3e4e1c0e4b918d PDF Text Text FORECASTING OF WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONS IN KIRKLARELI, TURKEY BY SIMPLE MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON Serhat Seker Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey Tahir Cetin Akinci Kirklareli University, Kirklareli, Turkey cetinakinci@hotmail.com Hidir Selcuk Nogay Kirklareli University, Kirklareli, Turkey Keywords: Artificial neural network, Multilayer Perceptron, back propagation, forecasting, wind speed and wind directions. ABSTRACT Artificial neural network model was used for short term wind speed and wind directions forecasting in the Kirklareli area, located in the Marmara region of Turkey in this paper. Using data of 2010 year that was obtained from State Meteorological Service. A simple ANN model was used in this study. The mean squared error and approximation values for training of this model were 0.231491 and 0.994802, respectively. Only 153 data was used in this study. 38 data of them was used for testing and validation of the Multilayer Perceptron. The ANN model used in the study has produced satisfactory results. The model can be used by the Kirklareli Electric Utility Control Center. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2127 Title A name given to the resource FORECASTING OF WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONS IN KIRKLARELI, TURKEY BY SIMPLE MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON Author Author SEKER, Serhat CETIN AKINCI, Tahir NOGAY SELCUK, Hidir Abstract A summary of the resource. Keywords: Artificial neural network, Multilayer Perceptron, back propagation, forecasting, wind speed and wind directions. ABSTRACT Artificial neural network model was used for short term wind speed and wind directions forecasting in the Kirklareli area, located in the Marmara region of Turkey in this paper. Using data of 2010 year that was obtained from State Meteorological Service. A simple ANN model was used in this study. The mean squared error and approximation values for training of this model were 0.231491 and 0.994802, respectively. Only 153 data was used in this study. 38 data of them was used for testing and validation of the Multilayer Perceptron. The ANN model used in the study has produced satisfactory results. The model can be used by the Kirklareli Electric Utility Control Center. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-24 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2233-1565 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e46e82187c1a22623d635e50039cf9e6.docx 66d7d34eb2bf433a0b588d1cf1503753 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/272225930b4a3d0d3dd242f2263f5622.pdf 11b0cd6f6b40af9d97b29013284c9ab9 PDF Text Text Foregrounding Critical Thinking in Communication Courses for Engineering Students Caroline Brandt Petroleum Institute, United Arab Emirates ABSTRACT This paper reports on research completed at a degree-awarding engineering institute accredited by the US Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology (ABET) in the United Arab Emirates. In first-year communication programs, ABET Student Outcome 3i, “recognition of the need for, and an ability to engage in life-long learning” is supported in part by a learning objective that aims to develop students’ ability to “demonstrate reflective and critical thinking skills”. While this objective is supported throughout the institute’s engineering curricula, many students first encounter the associated concepts and skills in their freshman year, primarily during the first communication course. Program review found that while instruction aimed at developing students’ critical thinking skills is well integrated in the curriculum, and it appears that many students begin to develop the necessary skills successfully, limited means existed for tracking individual students’ specific progress, which is an ABET requirement. Addressing this, informed by a meta-analysis of research in which key critical thinking skills for freshmen were identified, the researchers developed a series of interventions designed to foreground critical thinking in the curriculum and provide holistic evidence of the extent to which students successfully develop skills as a result of instruction. Intervention design was informed by the need for evidence that: a) can be used to infer the degree to which the student has met the learning objective; b) is longitudinally comparable; c) results from a variety of instruments; and d) is transparent and valid. Drawing on the results of administering the interventions to over 240 freshmen, student progress is discussed and intervention effectiveness in facilitating tracking is evaluated. Various linguistic and cultural issues arising from the interventions are outlined, and several unanticipated benefits are explored. The paper concludes with a consideration of the extent to which the intervention may be transferable to other discipline contexts. � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1727 Title A name given to the resource Foregrounding Critical Thinking in Communication Courses for Engineering Students Author Author BRANDT, Caroline Abstract A summary of the resource. This paper reports on research completed at a degree-awarding engineering institute accredited by the US Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology (ABET) in the United Arab Emirates. In first-year communication programs, ABET Student Outcome 3i, “recognition of the need for, and an ability to engage in life-long learning” is supported in part by a learning objective that aims to develop students’ ability to “demonstrate reflective and critical thinking skills”. While this objective is supported throughout the institute’s engineering curricula, many students first encounter the associated concepts and skills in their freshman year, primarily during the first communication course. Program review found that while instruction aimed at developing students’ critical thinking skills is well integrated in the curriculum, and it appears that many students begin to develop the necessary skills successfully, limited means existed for tracking individual students’ specific progress, which is an ABET requirement. Addressing this, informed by a meta-analysis of research in which key critical thinking skills for freshmen were identified, the researchers developed a series of interventions designed to foreground critical thinking in the curriculum and provide holistic evidence of the extent to which students successfully develop skills as a result of instruction. Intervention design was informed by the need for evidence that: a) can be used to infer the degree to which the student has met the learning objective; b) is longitudinally comparable; c) results from a variety of instruments; and d) is transparent and valid. Drawing on the results of administering the interventions to over 240 freshmen, student progress is discussed and intervention effectiveness in facilitating tracking is evaluated. Various linguistic and cultural issues arising from the interventions are outlined, and several unanticipated benefits are explored. The paper concludes with a consideration of the extent to which the intervention may be transferable to other discipline contexts. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available IBU Publishing Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-03 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/8071c078f55d3c1b374ad37669281da4.pdf 061133035726dceb3c9641705fb74f9a PDF Text Text 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Romer, P. (1986) "Increasing Returns And Long Run Growth", Journal Of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037. (1990) "Endogenous Technical Change", Journal Of Political Economy, 98, October, Ss. 71-102. (1994) "Perspectives On Growth Theory", Journal Of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), Winter. Sachs, J. D. Ve Warner, A. (1995) "Economic Reform And The Process Of Global Integration", Brooking Papers Of Economic Activity 0 (1), Ss. 195. Sinha, D., Ve Sinha, T. (1996) "Openness And Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence From India, Applied Economics, Ss.21-28. Seyidoğlu, H. (2003) "International Economy; Theory, Policy and Application", 15. Press, Güzem Publishing, March, İstanbul. Sims, C. A. (1980) "Macroeconomics And Reality", Econometrica, 48, Ss. 146. Vamvakidis, A. (2002) "How Robust Is The Growth-Openness Connection? Historical Evidence", Journal Of Economic Growth, 7, Ss. 57-80. Wu, Y. (2004) "Openness, Productivity And Growth In The Apec Economies", Empirical Economies, 29, Ss. 593-604. http://www.dtm.gov.tr/Ekonomi/Trkekon.htm, 2005. Foreign Capital Inflow and Sustainable Economic Development: A Case Study of Turkey Ahmet Cetin1, Murat Mustafa Kutluturk1, Birol Cetin2 1CankiriKaratekin University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 18100 Cankiri, Turkey. 2Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency, VlahaBukovca, Podgoritsa. E-mails: akcetin@hotmail.com, mmkutluturk@gmail.com,bcetin@gop.edu.tr Abstract This study analyses the effect of foreign capital inflow (especially foreign direct investment) on the sustainable economic development of Turkey. The main objectives of the study are to analyses the long run relationship between foreign direct investment and sustainable economic development. Quarterly data were used from the period of 1992:Q1 to 2011:Q3. The Engle-Granger Methodology for cointegration was applied to estimate the long run relationship. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were used to check the stationarity of each variable in the model. The ADF tests of the differences of each variable indicate that all of the variables are integrated of the first order. Cointegration was applied to estimate the long run relationship. A stable long run relationship was found between foreign direct investment and the sustainable economic development. Even if error correction 173 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo coefficient was statistically significant, the short run regression model was statistically insignificant. It was conducted that foreign direct investment had positive impact on the sustainable economic development in the long run but not in the short run. Keywords: Capital Inflow, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Development, EngleGranger, Cointegration 1. INTRODUCTION It has been considered capital as the central element of the process of economic development. Based on this view, the capital-deficient countries heavily resorted to foreign capital as the primary means to achieve rapid economic growth. In economic literature, it has been widely accepted that Foreign Capital Inflow (FCI) stimulates sustainable economic development via adoption of new (foreign) technology, which can happen via licensing agreements, beginning competition for resources, employee training and knowledge, and export spillovers. Because of these benefitsof foreign capital inflow, many developing and emerging countries have attracted and experienced large capital inflows during the past decades. However, foreign capital inflow can even adversely affect the development process. It exposes the recipient country to external shocks. That short-term capital flows can increase the fragility of the financial system and destabilize the economy. They not only pose a threat to the financial system but also undermine the economic progress of the developing nations. Additionally, it is more volatile than other categories of capital flows and its sudden reversal tends to have destabilizing effects on the host country. The growth experience of many of these countries has not been very satisfactory and, as a result, they accumulated a large external debt and are now facing serious debt servicing problems. Peterson Institute for International Economics reports that FDI possibly increase the level of productivity so that initiate a circle that in turn increase wage level, saving, so investment, and again productivity. According to report, FDI with higher technology transferred, new management skill implemented, and increasing skill of local workers may bring new dynamics to the economy beside spillover these new implementations into the local firms. In addition competition in the local market will rise efficiency, increase output, and also stimulate economic growth. Such developments may lead economies to increase not in the way of quantity but also quality of products. Growing economy demands new skilled labor should increase wages and so standards of livings like education and health23. Similar concerns were also reported by OECD. Countries on the track of the development consider FDI as a medium of economic development. To attract the FDI, countries liberalize their FDI regimes, hoping macroeconomic growth and enhance welfare. If countries hope to attract foreign investments some basic foreign investment friendly policies and some basic features like scale economies, labor supply, infrastructures, natural resources etc. and some level of economic development need to be available so that FDI may have effect on spillover of technology, human capital formation, integration with world through trade, competitive environment and so on. Such policies and its effects will help economic development like 23http://www.iie.com/publications/chapters_preview/53/1iie258x.pdf 174 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo reduction of poverty, environment friendly technologies and socially sensitive corporate policies24. According to Papanek (1973) FCI consist of three parts. Fist part is foreign aid that includes official borrowings and transfers that has no direct effect on the economy. Second part is foreign private investment that has two components: net foreign private direct investment and long term borrowing. Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is physical capital that has effects on economy’s reel sectors by increasing physical capacity of product or services and prepares an environment for new economic opportunities and employment. Lastly all other inflows refer to net short term borrowings, net private transfers etc. that has little but unsustainable impacts on the economy. As in this paper development was being concerned, FDI as a most effective part of FCI on development was chosen as the main indicator. For these reasons, in case of such a scenario FDI may cause economic development which is our concern in this study. As proxy variable of sustainable development, the ratio of external depth to export was used. If this ratio gets higher, amount of GDP allocated for current and future payments increases that social spending such as poverty,, health and education could negatively be affected in the long run (Anwar, 2011). 2. LITERATURE REVIEW Even though there is a debate over FDI and its effects on economies at different stages for years, it is undeniable that countries suffer with shortage of saving require other nations savings to break the chain of being the member of so called less developed nations. FDI is one of the most important pillars of the economic growth and development for especially developing, transition and emerging economies. Lucas (1988) and Barro (1990)using endogenous growth model tried to investigate if any effect of FDI on economic growth through diffusion of technology and they show importance of technology on the economic development. The importance of liberalization at the financial sector and stable economy for FDI was emphasized by De Gregrioand Guidotti (1995). Similar points made by the World Bank (2002) that FDI improve productivity, growth and trade even though effects diversifies among countries and sectors according to host countries policies and characteristics. Qi (2007) discuses in the paper, that FDI may have direct and indirect effect on the economy. It may directlypromote economic growth but also it may help human capital development, strengthening completion related sectors and technology transfer indirectly. Aitken and Harrison (1997) reached a conclusion supports previous one that FDI increase the productivity not only for foreign firm but also domestic firms in the same sector. On the other hand De Backer and Sleuwagen (2003) and Carcovic and Levine (2005)discussed the subject that after FDI it may change the structure of the economy and may affect the trade, price, finance etc. so that it will affect resources allocation and slow the economy. FDI may improve economic conditions by increasing employment, productivity, export transferring technology and skills (UNCTAD 2008). According to Borensztein (1998) FDI through training and labor management are beneficiary not only for the economic growth but 24http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/47/51/1959815.pdf 175 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo also oversee firms’ interaction with other local firms that may lead to increase production standards higher for production and improve management skills more. In the sectorial level Sekmen (2007) investigated Turkey’s tourism sector for 1980-2005 and didn’t find cointegration among variables but found unidirectional relationship between FDI and GDP and bidirectional relation between exchange rate and GDP and FDI. Ilhan and Huseyin (2007) searched for the impact of FDI on Turkey’s and Pakistan’s economic growth for the periods of 1975 and 2004. They concluded that there is bidirectional causality exists for the case of Turkey and unidirectional causality exist for the case of Pakistan from FDI to GDP. 3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY For this study quarterly data has been collected from Electronic Data Delivery System ofCentral Bank of the Republic of Turkeyfor the periods between 1992:Q1 and 2011:Q3. All variables namely external debt, export, and foreign direct investment (FDI) were measured in million US dollars. As a measurement of sustainable development the ratio of external debt to export (EDX) is used. Variables are used in the form of natural logarithm. In addition to taking logarithm form of variables,X11 seasonal adjustment methodology has implementedto variables. Griffith (2001) indicates that if time series are concern in a regression, two non-stationary variables may produce incorrect results. Time series are generally tends to show increasing or decreasing tendency. In order to catch the long and short run relationship between FDI and development cointegration technique is used. This technique, that was introduced by Granger in 1981 and developed by Engle and Granger 1987, gives us advantages to analyze the both short and long run relation together. Basically this approach indicates that even if economic time series exhibits non-stationary behaviors, a suitable linear combination between these variables may remove trend component so that time series variables become stationary. In such a case these time series variables are called as cointegrated which economically may be a good indicator of long run or steady state equilibrium if exist. Cointegration test can be conducted via Engle and Granger (1987) or Johansen (1988, 1991) and Johansen and Juselius (1990). Residual based Engle Granger (EG) test is implemented in two steps. OLS is being used on level variables for cointegration regression than residuals are acquired to test stationarity using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests. But before implement the test statistics variables integrated order are needed to be identified. If both variables are integrated at the same level, say I(d) than linear combination of these variables will also be integrated at the same level, I(d). If not say I(d-r) where r<d than one may conclude that there is long run relationship between these variables or there is some cointegration.To implement EG test following regression is estimated and residuals are acquired: yt   0  1 xt   t . Obtained residuals are used for following models estimates:  t  yt   0  1 xt . EG test is used to test on error term and if it is, say, I(0) than residuals series are said stationary. In such a case Engel introduces Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). Unit root tests can be implemented on the level and first difference variables: pi y   1 yit 1    ij yit  j  xit.    t j 1 176 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo ADF, that test the unit root of concerned time series variables, consist of first difference of the series as dependent variable and lagged and lagged difference terms, constant and a time trend as independent variables. The test of unit root is to test coefficient of ( yt 1 ). As discussed by Loayaza (2002) the cointegration relationship between foreign direct investment and sustainable development following log-log form is used for estimation: LnEDX t   0  1 LnFDI t   t 4. EMPIRICAL RESULT AND DISCUSSION 4.1. Unit Root Test Prior to conducting the cointegration analysis, it is essential to check the Stationarity for each variable in the model.Unit root tests for stationarity are performed on both levels and first differences for both variables in the model. Three different modelswith varying deterministic components have been consideredwhile performing the tests. These are: (1) model with the intercept; (2) the model with a constant and atrend; and (3) a model that neither includes a constant,nor a trend in the long-run cointegration space. The results of the tests are reported in Table 1.The results of the unit root tests shows that all the variables are non-stationary at level. First differencing ofall variables yields acceptance of the null hypothesis ofstationarity. Based on these test results, it is, therefore,conclude that both variables are I(1) variables. Table 1: ADF Unit Root Test for Stationarity Test with intercept and trend at level None Intercept Trend&Intercept LnEDX -0.86 -1.04 -2.51 LnFDI 1.04 -0.47 -2.38 Test with intercept and trend at first difference level None Intercept Trend&Intercept D(LnEDX) -10.22* -10.28* -10.21* D(LnFDI) -10.32* -10.41* -10.39* Note: * indicated the stationary of the variables at 1% level of significance 4.2. Cointegration and Error Correction Model To implement Engel Granger procedure following model has been estimated and result summarized below: LnEDX = 3.155758 - 3.155758 Trend - 0.074408 LnFDI (t-stat) 177 (34.26) (-4.17) (-3.76) �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo R2 = 0.735 Adj. R2 = 0.728 DW = 0,486 F-Stat = 105,469 (Prob. 0.000) The above results indicate that in the long run equation the variables are cointegrated since the residuals of the regression are stationary with one lag length based on SIC at the 5 percent level of significance. Error Correction model has been formed as follows and test statistics given below. D(LnEDX) = -0.005804 + -0.007396 D(LnFDI) + -0.154757 ECM-1 (t-stat) (-0.757) R2 = 0.071 Adj. R2 = 0.046 (-0.647) DW = 2.09 (-2.405) F-Stat = 2.896 (Prob. 0.0614) FDI was found statistically insignificant in the short run. We may conclude that FDI has no impact over economic development in the short run. On the other hand ECM is negative and statistically significant as required. This means that there is a relationship between FDI and economic development in the long run. 15% of deviation from the long run relation is being correctedevery period. 5. CONCLUSION The aim of this study is toanalyses the long run relationship between foreign direct investment and sustainable economic development in Turkey with the application of an Engle-Granger approach using quarterly data from the period of 1992:Q1 to 2011:Q3.The date indicated that a stable long run relationship was found between foreign direct investment and the sustainable development. FDI would impact positively. Even if error correction coefficient was statistically significant, the short run regression model was statistically insignificant. It was conducted that foreign direct investment had positive impact on the sustainable economic development in the long run but not in the short run. In the long run, the model indicates that a 1 percent increase in FDI would support sustainable development by 0.074 percent. According to study, FDI has no effect in the short run and limited effect in the long run. REFERENCES Aitken, B. and Harrison, G.H. and Harrison, A.E. (1997) Spillover, Foreign Investment, And Export Behavior, Journal of international Economics, vol. 43, pp103-132 Anwar, S.,Shabir,G. andHussain,Z.(2011). Relationship between Financial Sector Development and SustainableEconomic Development: Time Series Analysis from Pakistan.International Journal of Economics and Finance Vol. 3, No. 1. www.ccsenet.org/ijef Barro, R. (1990), Government Spending in a Simple Model of Economic Growth, Journal of Political Economy, 98, pp.103-125. Borensztein, B., Gregorio, J. De and Lee, J-W, (1998). How does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? Journal of International Economics, pp. 115-135. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1996(97)00033-0 178 �3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo Carcovic, M. and Levine, Ross (2005). Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth? In Moran, Graham, Blomstorm Edward and Magnus, Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development? De Backer, K. and Sleuwagen, L. (2003) Does Foreign Direct Investment Crown Out Domestic Entrepreneurship? Review of Industrial Organization, 22, p. 67-102. De Gregrio, J. and Guidotti, P.E. (1995), Financial Development and Economic Growth, World Development, 23, pp. 433-448. Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987) Cointegrationand Error Correction: Representation, Estimation And Testing, Econometrica,55, 251-76. Granger, C. W. J. (1981) Some Properties Of Time Series Data And Their Use In Econometric Model Speciation, Journal of Econometrics,16, 121-30. Ilhan, O., Huseyin, K. (2007). Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: An Empirical Investigation Based on Cross-Country Comparison, Working paper, MPRA Paper No.9636. http://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/9636.html Johansen, S. (1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dimension and Control, 12, 231-54. Johansen, S. (1991) Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica,59, 1551-80. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to The Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Econometrics and Statistics, 52, 169-210. Loayaza, R. and Ranciere, R. (2002) Financial development, Financial Fragility and Growth, CESifo Working Paper 684 (5) Lucas, R. E. (1988) On the Mechanics of Economic Development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, pp.3-42 Papanek, G.F. (1973) Aid, Foreign Private Investment, Savings and Growth in Less Developed Countries, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, No. 1, pp. 120-30 OECD, 2002, Foreign Direct Investment for Development, Maximizing Benefits, Minimizing Costs: Overview, p. 5, OECD Publication Service, Paris Qi, Liangsui 2007, The Relationship between Growth, Total Investment and inward FDI: Evidence from Time Series Data, International Review of Applied Economies, vol. 21 no. 1, pp. 119-133. Sekmen, F.(2007), Co-integration and Causality among Foreign Direct Investment in Tourism Sector, GDP and Exchange rate Volatility in Turkey. The Empirical Economics Letters, Vol. 6, No. 1, ISSN 1681 8997, paper No: 8736. http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/8736/1/ MPRA_paper_8736.pdf. United Nations, (2008) World Investment Report, Transnational Corporations and Infrastructure Challenge, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. http://www.unctad.org. World Bank 2002, World Tables Oxford University Press 179 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1323 Title A name given to the resource Foreign Capital Inflow and Sustainable Economic Development: A Case Study of Turkey Author Author Ahmet , Cetin Abstract A summary of the resource. This study analyses the effect of foreign capital inflow (especially foreign direct investment) on the sustainable economic development of Turkey. The main objectives of the study are to analyses the long run relationship between foreign direct investment and sustainable economic development. Quarterly data were used from the period of 1992:Q1 to 2011:Q3. The Engle-Granger Methodology for cointegration was applied to estimate the long run relationship. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were used to check the stationarity of each variable in the model. The ADF tests of the differences of each variable indicate that all of the variables are integrated of the first order. Cointegration was applied to estimate the long run relationship. A stable long run relationship was found between foreign direct investment and the sustainable economic development. Even if error correction coefficient was statistically significant, the short run regression model was statistically insignificant. It was conducted that foreign direct investment had positive impact on the sustainable economic development in the long run but not in the short run. Keywords: Capital Inflow, Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Development, Engle- Granger, Cointegration Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2012-05-31 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General),HB Economic Theory,HG Finance,HJ Public Finance https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/596cd9d79f54a562519bf0eae44389c9.docx 07aed676028bf6bf31532264ccd03c94 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f63f5642f3c8872f534864445b1e8750.pdf a0e9a51af228326907727ccabaf73efa PDF Text Text Foreign Direct Investment as a Factor of Economic Empowerment of the European Union AmraNuhanović University of Tuzla Bosnia and Herzegovina amra.nuhanovic@untz.ba HidajetKlapić University of Tuzla Bosnia and Herzegovina hidajet.klapic@yahoo.com Abstract: At the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century, the role of the European Union in foreign direct investment flows has increased, but also the growing role of transnational companies from EU countries in the world economy is noticeable. Cross-border corporate takeover has become the dominant form of movements in foreign direct investments. The main role in this process had the European Union countries, such as suppliers, as well as recipients of foreign direct investment. Excluding flows within the European Union, this regional integration refers to approximately 40 % of all outbound foreign direct investment in the last decade. The undisputable fact is also, that the global financial crisis has affected, among other things, reduction of foreign direct investment in the European Union, but also increase of regional disparities, at the global and lowers regional level. This fact committed authors of this paper to ask a question – is there any inconsistency or gap in the distribution (or allocation) of foreign direct investment in EU countries, taking into consideration that there is a significant gap in the inflows and outflows of foreign investment between industrialized countries and developing countries? In order to answer the question, the paper provides an overview of trends in foreign direct investment in the European Union, stating data and rating in terms of impact of FDI on the economic growth in general, and in the countries of the European Union in particular. Keywords: Foreign direct investment (FDI), inflows, outflows, EU. 53 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2482 Title A name given to the resource Foreign Direct Investment as a Factor of Economic Empowerment of the European Union Author Author NUHANOVIĆ, Amra KLAPIĆ, Hidajet Abstract A summary of the resource. At the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century, the role of the European Union in foreign direct investment flows has increased, but also the growing role of transnational companies from EU countries in the world economy is noticeable. Cross-border corporate takeover has become the dominant form of movements in foreign direct investments. The main role in this process had the European Union countries, such as suppliers, as well as recipients of foreign direct investment. Excluding flows within the European Union, this regional integration refers to approximately 40 % of all outbound foreign direct investment in the last decade. The undisputable fact is also, that the global financial crisis has affected, among other things, reduction of foreign direct investment in the European Union, but also increase of regional disparities, at the global and lowers regional level. This fact committed authors of this paper to ask a question – is there any inconsistency or gap in the distribution (or allocation) of foreign direct investment in EU countries, taking into consideration that there is a significant gap in the inflows and outflows of foreign investment between industrialized countries and developing countries? In order to answer the question, the paper provides an overview of trends in foreign direct investment in the European Union, stating data and rating in terms of impact of FDI on the economic growth in general, and in the countries of the European Union in particular. Keywords: Foreign direct investment (FDI), inflows, outflows, EU. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-04-24 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/87fdacc2c1b8746ca7dba1a47c22deb7.pdf 33fb6c244f2dcb13c546375f1329aacc PDF Text Text International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo Foreign Direct Investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2001 to 2012 Dino Rahimic International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina noname9053@hotmail.com Uğur Ergün International Burch University, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina uergun@ibu.edu.ba This study examines the role and impact of the Foreign Direct investment in the economic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Quarterly quantitative historical data such as, Foreign Direct Investment , GDP, inflation and unemployment are used together with qualitative data obtained through face to face interviews and surveys. Empirical findings from non-linear regression analysis imply that Foreign Direct Investment has growing significant positive impact on the economy after the war. Among the sectors, agriculture and food are the most attractive and advantageous sectors for the foreign investors. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Bosnia and Herzegovina, War. 86 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 1529 Title A name given to the resource Foreign Direct Investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2001 to 2012 Author Author RAHIMIĆ, Dino ERGÜN, Uğur Abstract A summary of the resource. This study examines the role and impact of the Foreign Direct investment in the economic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Quarterly quantitative historical data such as, Foreign Direct Investment , GDP, inflation and unemployment are used together with qualitative data obtained through face to face interviews and surveys. Empirical findings from non-linear regression analysis imply that Foreign Direct Investment has growing significant positive impact on the economy after the war. Among the sectors, agriculture and food are the most attractive and advantageous sectors for the foreign investors. Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Bosnia and Herzegovina, War. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-05-10 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/ebad0e8e00b54204b6ff2a844190a809.docx 4467e999aa249b3a275a79468c770577 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f9278960ee69b275c5be16b57af9d80b.pdf 8baffdc63416c2db70f346c0f83273fa PDF Text Text Foreign Direct Investment in the Western Balkan Transition Economies:Future Perspectives AdisaArapović-Omerbegović Department of Economics Sarajevo School of Science and Technology Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina adisa.omerbegovic@ssst.edu.ba EldinDobardžić Department of Economics Sarajevo School of Science and Technology Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina eldin.dobardzic@ssst.edu.ba Abstract: The importance of FDI for the economic development of a transition economy is especially pronounced. However, it is necessary to say that the importance of FDI for the Western Balkan countries have the crucial importance especially for the continuation and completion of the initiated reforms. Continuation and completion of structural economic reforms is also one of the key conditions for the accession of the Western Balkan countries to the European Union. So, the central question is what are the key factors that determine the level of FDI flows into the Western Balkan countries in the near future. The notable FDI performance of Central Eastern European countries during their preparation for the EU accession in the last decade and the experience of earlier EU enlargements demonstrate that economic integration can increase FDI inflows. The Western Balkans follows a specific process of economic integration. On the one hand, intra-regional integration aims at normalizing the economic relations after the period of disintegration during the nineties and helps to create a common market. On the other hand, the regions aspire to accede into the EU, as it has been demonstrated by the EU membership application of Croatia. This paper aims to analyze how political stability or instability may affect FDI inflows by creating an index of performance on this variable for each Western Balkan country and relates it to a measure of FDI performance for a particular country. Also, the paper analyzes the impact of the EU accession process on the value of FDI inflows. The integration of the Western Balkan countries with the aim of liberalizing interregional trade represents (such as a CEFTA agreement) a chance for improving their mutual cooperation and it provides the basis for a more intensive trade with the European Union countries. Based on the analysis of the current political situation in the Western Balkans, as well as the current position in the negotiations with the EU, paper indicates the factors which determine the likely direction of potential FDI flows into the Western Balkan countries with the specific recommendations for the economic policy makers. Keywords: Western Balkan transition economies, foreign direct investment, political volatility, EU integration 16 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2442 Title A name given to the resource Foreign Direct Investment in the Western Balkan Transition Economies:Future Perspectives Author Author ARAPOVIĆ-OMERBEGOVIĆ, Adisa DOBARDŽIĆ, Eldin Abstract A summary of the resource. The importance of FDI for the economic development of a transition economy is especially pronounced. However, it is necessary to say that the importance of FDI for the Western Balkan countries have the crucial importance especially for the continuation and completion of the initiated reforms. Continuation and completion of structural economic reforms is also one of the key conditions for the accession of the Western Balkan countries to the European Union. So, the central question is what are the key factors that determine the level of FDI flows into the Western Balkan countries in the near future. The notable FDI performance of Central Eastern European countries during their preparation for the EU accession in the last decade and the experience of earlier EU enlargements demonstrate that economic integration can increase FDI inflows. The Western Balkans follows a specific process of economic integration. On the one hand, intra-regional integration aims at normalizing the economic relations after the period of disintegration during the nineties and helps to create a common market. On the other hand, the regions aspire to accede into the EU, as it has been demonstrated by the EU membership application of Croatia. This paper aims to analyze how political stability or instability may affect FDI inflows by creating an index of performance on this variable for each Western Balkan country and relates it to a measure of FDI performance for a particular country. Also, the paper analyzes the impact of the EU accession process on the value of FDI inflows. The integration of the Western Balkan countries with the aim of liberalizing interregional trade represents (such as a CEFTA agreement) a chance for improving their mutual cooperation and it provides the basis for a more intensive trade with the European Union countries. Based on the analysis of the current political situation in the Western Balkans, as well as the current position in the negotiations with the EU, paper indicates the factors which determine the likely direction of potential FDI flows into the Western Balkan countries with the specific recommendations for the economic policy makers. Keywords: Western Balkan transition economies, foreign direct investment, political volatility, EU integration Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-04-24 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/6d095bc91d890384ec432d278337f0e0.docx 15ce27da32c5f45f5f85ba77e83a7aa3 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/87ce3602dfc26ab77a51d27b94c66c50.pdf 180a28747bc51ed8dee35b0790343afa PDF Text Text Foreign Direct Investments in Bosnia and Herzegovina Mirhat Kolašinac International Burch University Bosnia and Herzegovina mirhat.kolasinac@yahoo.com Uğur Ergün International Burch University Bosnia and Herzegovina ugur.ergun@ibu.edu.ba Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a capital investment in a particular company abroad that acquire ownership control over the enterprise. The main objective of the study is to explore the problems of foreign direct investments in B&H and to explore the reasons why foreign investors should invest in B&H. This research gives better insight current and historical trend of FDI in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Foreign direct investments are of great importance for economic growth and development of developing countries and countries in transition like Bosnia and Herzegovina. Benefit from foreign direct investments has all the investors and the country in which he invested. This paper presents the role and importance of foreign direct investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to data, investments in Bosnia and Herzegovina are increasing every year. It positively affects the economic situation in our country. For purpose of the study author will give detail explanation of foreign direct investment. Research questions will be based on foreign company and investors which invest in B&H, and in which sector are they investing. The next question is how the policies can attract foreign direct investments and which countries are the most investors in Bosnia and Herzegovina. What are the problems faced by foreign investors and how policy can address these issues in order to facilitate them and attract more foreign investment. Based on the collected data and financial statements there will be show the current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina related with foreign investment. In the research there will be compared B&H with countries in the region. Whether Bosnia and Herzegovina has advantages compared to Serbia and Croatia. Which of these countries has the most foreign investment? As a conclusion of this paper, analysis will show how are important foreign investment for economic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and what is necessary for B&H to change in order to attract a large number of foreign investments. Keywords: Foreign direct investment (FDI), transition, Bosnia and Herzegovina, economic growth, policy. 126 �126 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2589 Title A name given to the resource Foreign Direct Investments in Bosnia and Herzegovina Author Author KOLAŠINAC, Mirhat ERGUN, Ugur Abstract A summary of the resource. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a capital investment in a particular company abroad that acquire ownership control over the enterprise. The main objective of the study is to explore the problems of foreign direct investments in B&H and to explore the reasons why foreign investors should invest in B&H. This research gives better insight current and historical trend of FDI in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Foreign direct investments are of great importance for economic growth and development of developing countries and countries in transition like Bosnia and Herzegovina. Benefit from foreign direct investments has all the investors and the country in which he invested. This paper presents the role and importance of foreign direct investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to data, investments in Bosnia and Herzegovina are increasing every year. It positively affects the economic situation in our country. For purpose of the study author will give detail explanation of foreign direct investment. Research questions will be based on foreign company and investors which invest in B&H, and in which sector are they investing. The next question is how the policies can attract foreign direct investments and which countries are the most investors in Bosnia and Herzegovina. What are the problems faced by foreign investors and how policy can address these issues in order to facilitate them and attract more foreign investment. Based on the collected data and financial statements there will be show the current situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina related with foreign investment. In the research there will be compared B&H with countries in the region. Whether Bosnia and Herzegovina has advantages compared to Serbia and Croatia. Which of these countries has the most foreign investment? As a conclusion of this paper, analysis will show how are important foreign investment for economic development of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and what is necessary for B&H to change in order to attract a large number of foreign investments. Keywords: Foreign direct investment (FDI), transition, Bosnia and Herzegovina, economic growth, policy. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014-04 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed Identifier An unambiguous reference to the resource within a given context ISSN 2303-4564 H Social Sciences (General)