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International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Fiscal Impacts of Privatization in Turkey
Sinan Sarısoy
Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, TURKEY
ssarisoy@nku.edu.tr, ssarisoy@hotmail.com
Fazlı Yıldız
Dumlupınar University, Kütahya, TURKEY
fyildiz43@hotmail.com
Ersin Nail Sağdıç
Dumlupınar University, Kütahya, TURKEY
nailsagdic@hotmail.com
There are many reasons for that privatization is an attractive application
for most of the countries. Since 1980s, fundamental problems that
developed and developing countries meet such as economic stagnation,
high public deficit, high borrowing cost, high inflation and high burden of
tax are forced the countries to find alternative sources of income. In this
regard, privatization applications have become an important policy which
aims economical, fiscal, political, and social purposes for many countries.
On the one hand, privatization incomes obtained from the selling of public
enterprises can become a solution to the permanent deficit of public
sector. On the other hand, these incomes can be used in the financing of
larger deficits arouse because of cyclical reasons. It can be said that it is
aimed business activities under private ownership are expected to increase
and in addition to this, the reasons of public finance gain importance,
public sector decreases and additional sources to increasing public
expenditures are formed by using the incomes from the privatization. The
proliferation of privatization works around the world has started with Chile
and England after 1980s. And because USSR system collapsed and these
countries entered to free market system based on private property,
privatization increased in these countries. In Turkey, legal infrastructure
works concerning privatization have started in the middle of 1980s, but the
increase in privatization works has accelerated after 2004.
In this study, fiscal impacts of income obtained from the privatization
applications in Turkey between 1986 and 2012 are examined. The
fundamental hypothesis of this study is whether or not privatization has a
detractive effect on budget deficits and public sector borrowing
requirement as a tool. To test this hypothesis, two different models
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estimated has been developed by linking incomes from privatization and
some macroeconomic variables with budget deficit, public sector
borrowing requirement and public debt stock. In this study, the effect of
privatization incomes in turkey on budget deficits and public sector
borrowing requirement has been analysed on the basis of ordinary least
square method. The discovery of the analysis showed that between 19862012 privatization incomes in Turkey increased budget deficits and
increased public sector borrowing requirement. According to the result, it
can be expressed that privatization, as a tool which reduces budget deficits
does not satisfy the expectations, but because of its reducing effect on
public sector borrowing requirement, privatization has a positive effect on
public finance.
Keywords: Privatization, Fiscal Impacts, Turkey.
259
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International Conference on Economic and Social Studies (ICESoS’13), 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Fiscal Impacts of Privatization in Turkey
Sinan Sarigoz
Namik Kemal University, Tekirdag, Turkey
ssarisoy@nku.edu.tr
Fazli Yildiz
DumlupinarUniversity, Kutahya, Turkey
fyildiz43@hotmail.com
E. Nail Sagdic
Dumlupinar University, Kutahya, Turkey
nailsagdic@hotmail.com
Abstract
There are many reasons for that privatization is an attractive application for most of
the countries. Since 1980s, fundamental problems that developed and developing
countries meet such as economic stagnation, high public deficit, high borrowing
cost, high inflation and high burden of tax are forcing the countries to find
alternative sources of income. In this regard, privatization applications have become
an important policy which aims economical, physical, political, and social purposes
for many countries. On the one hand, privatization incomes obtained from the
selling of public enterprises can become a solution to the permanent deficit of the
public sector. On the other hand, these incomes can be used in the financing of
larger deficits arouse because of cyclical reasons. It can be said that it is aimed
business activities under private ownership are expected to increase and in addition
to this, the reasons of public finance gain importance, public sector decreases and
additional sources of increasing public expenditures are formed by using the
incomes from the privatization. The proliferation of privatization works around the
world has started with Chile and England after 1980s. And because the USSR
system collapsed and these countries entered intoa free market system based on
private property, privatization increased in these countries. In Turkey, creating legal
infrastructure concerning privatization has started in the middle of 1980s, but the
increase in privatization works has accelerated after 2004.
In this study, fiscal impacts of income obtained from the privatization applications
in Turkey between 1986 and 2012 are examined. The fundamental hypothesis of
this study is whether or not privatization has a destructive effect on budget deficits
and public sector borrowing requirement as a tool. To test this hypothesis, two
different models estimated have been developed by linking incomes from
privatization and some macroeconomic variables with the budget deficit, public
sector borrowing requirement and public debt stock. In this study, the effect of
privatization incomes in Turkey on budget deficits and public sector borrowing
requirement has been analyzed on the basis of ordinary least square method. The
discovery of the analysis showed that between 1986-2012 privatization incomes in
Turkey increased budget deficits and increased public sector borrowing
requirement. According to the result, it can be expressed that privatization, as a tool
which reduces budget deficits does not satisfy the expectations, but because of its
reducing effect on the public sector borrowing requirement, privatization has a
positive effect on public finance.
Keywords: Privatization, Fiscal Impact, Budget Deficit, Public Debt, Public
Finance
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Introduction
Privatization, or in a more general meaning the selling of the property of state-controlled
entities to private sector has become one of the most important issues of the recent years in
the world economy. The privatization movement, having started with the Republic of Chile
in 1970s gained speed with the coming of Thatcher’s Government to the power of England
in 1979. Later, important privatizations were applied in such industrialized countries as
Italy, France, Spain, and Japan. Moreover, after the year 1990 important programs of
privatization were brought into force in Middle and Eastern European countries (Karluk,
1999: 321).
Privatization is a process that enforces the alienation of the property and management of
public enterprises partially or totally in the private sector for the purpose of replacing
private corporations with the public ones that meet the individual and social needs (Demir,
2000: 12). Privatization is described in both narrow and broad ways. In its narrow meaning
privatization is the act of passing the property and management of financial institutions of
state property or in another meaning, state-controlled entities. In this act an absolute
alienation of property must take place. In its broadest meaning privatization is the
alienation of financial institutions, which are under the control of the state sector to the
private sector for the purpose of reducing economic activities of the government. In the
privatization of the broad meaning lowering the activities of the government in overall
economy to the minimum level or removing them completely is the matter. The act of
lowering economic activities of public institutions to the minimum level in an occasion
where the rules of free market economy are valid is a far-going privatization (Karluk,
1999: 323-324).
In general it can be said that privatization involves applications that are to reduce the role
of the government in the economy. In the regulations of reducing the role of the
government in economy; the selling of public institutions directly to private companies,
contract of concession, the selling of the right for founding entities to private sector, giving
coupon for consumer products free of charge and service procurements, endowments,
regulations between the government and the private companies as purchasers for the
procurement of some goods and services can be shown (Ulusoy & Vural, 2003: 119). The
concept of privatization that can be expressed as ‘The selling of entities whose properties
belong to the public partially or completely to private persons or corporations’ can
technically be expressed in three parts: the first one of these parts is the selling of resources
of public side to private entrepreneurs, the second one is deregulation or liberalization. The
third part is contract of concession (Kök & Kara, 2011: 302).
The providing of goods and services produced, economically and the enhancing of
productivity depend on the provision of competition environment; and the alienation of
property to private sector has become a current issue for the competition environment to be
formed efficiently. Just like in our country, there are both defensive and opposed views of
privatization all over the world. Some of these views are like that (Yiğitgüden, 1999: 59):
Viewers like privatization will relieve the public’s burden, privatization will result in the
increase of the government’s revenues, privatization will create new sources of finance,
privatization will let entrepreneurial activities in the country gain speed, and private sector
is more profitable and has better management and technology compared to the public are
supporters of privatization.
However, views like privatization will cause dismissals, privatization will not bring
services to regions that do not answer its profit expectations, important sectors in economy
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have a national characteristic, thus the properties of these sectors should belong to the
government, private sectors will not take the necessary measurements for the protection of
environment sufficiently as they bring incremental costs with them are the views opposed
to privatization.
M. Pirie, one of the writers of the Institution of A. Smith, who has generated the
philosophy of privatization; and of the supporters of the policy of Thatcher’s Government
claims that there is discipline in the programs of private sector’s side, it is hard to manage
the costs of public programs, if any program is to be handled also in the private sector, it
will be under a marked-based effect, and privatization will have public sector in hand and
gradually take the place of it.
According to this view, what the goal of privatization is not to make public enterprises are
competitive, but to transform them into the units of the private sector.
The Goals of Privatization and Privatization in Turkey
The basic goals of privatization are providing productivity and activism in production by
forming market economy based on competition, saving public finance from the fiscal
burden created by institutions that are making losses and enhancing the public welfare by
letting fixed capital investments be carried out by the private sector. Privatization has
economic goals like bringing free market economy into force, developing capital market,
enhancing productivity, fixing the distribution of income, enhancing foreign capital inflow,
and putting disguised unemployment in public enterprises away; financial goals like
struggle with inflation, providing revenues to the government, efficient use of funds and
providing balanced budget; and social and political goals like providing the spread of
wealth to the grassroots, and putting political philosophy into practice (Doğan, 2012: 8).
In its rule, numbered 953 (1990) related to privatizations, The Council of Europe’s
Parliamentary Assembly has determined its expectations from privatization like that (Tan,
1992: 29): enhancing productivity, reducing prices, providing income, retrenching in
public sector, reducing the monopolistic power of unions in public sector, sharing
resources out effectively, and minimizing the government budget. In England, kept as the
homeland of privatization, five basic goals of privatization have been determined (Emir &
Toksoy, 1993: 31): providing the rise of income, spreading property to the grassroots
through stock certificates, encouraging liberalism, enhancing related sector’s efficiency,
and solving the problems between the government and the nationalized company.
Privatization can be considered as a source of income for developing countries having high
fiscal deficits and depth stock problems. However, a successful privatization process
requires macroeconomic stabilization that can be described as a combination of a
supportive market place and a sustainable economic growth, a low inflation, a stable rate of
exchange and a strict budget constraint for the government (Kuştepeli & Gülcan, 2002:
16).
After the rotation of 1980, Turkish economy entered a new process and started to adopt the
policies of liberal economic. Within the scope of this, market economy started to be
focused on and in 1984 privatization actions found a field of application with the alienation
acts for the purpose of completing unfinished public institutions or founding new
institutions instead of them. Between the years 1980-1983 with the expose of statecontrolled entities to a reform, rather than privatizing them, they're making profit from this
same direction was also foreseen, and thus privatization has been considered as a goal
since the Fifth Five-year Progress Plan. The first legal-regulation in our country, related to
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privatization was done with the rule dated 29.02.1984 and numbered 2983. With the rule
numbered 2983, the Board of Mass Housing and Public Participation, the Administration
of Mass Housing and Public Participation and the Public Participation Fund were founded
by the description of the methods of privatization that consisted of an income sharing
certificate, stock certificate and transfer of operating rights. And since from this date,
several legal regulations related to privatization have been done.
Table 1: Privatization Revenues in the World (1988-2011) and Turkey (1986-2012)
Privatization
Revenues in
Turkey ($)
Privatization
Revenues in the
World (Billion $)
Privatization
Revenues in
Turkey ($)
Privatization
Revenues in the
World (Billion $)
1986
954.895
--
2000
2.716.535.851
180.00
1987
832.842
--
2001
119.801.096
43,80
1988
26.856.987
39.00
2002
536.475.542
69,20
1989
131.199.960
28.00
2003
187.087.491
46,60
1990
485.989.167
24.00
2004
1.282.842.129
94.00
1991
243.841.620
46.00
2005
8.222.240.230
140.00
1992
422.881.905
39.00
2006
8.096.165.461
116.00
1993
567.538.720
60.00
2007
4.258.629.659
138.00
1994
411.754.739
76.00
2008
6.259.205.187
111.00
1995
572.456.490
80.00
2009
2.274.985.158
265,17
1996
291.998.907
100.00
2010
3.085.478.836
213,64
1997
465.517.964
162.00
2011
1.358.418.074
94.40
1998
1.019.715.144
140.00
2012
3.020.692.247
--
1999
38.328.651
140.00
Years
Years
Source: Doğan (2012), Republic Of Turkey Prime Ministry Privatization Administration, The PB
Report (2011)
An about 8 billion $ activity of privatization was done in Turkey between the years 1986
and 2003. Between the years 2003 and 2011 when the economic and political stabilizations
were provided and a determined attitude about privatization was set out, privatization
actions increased and about 35 billion $ privatization income was gained in this period. 43
billion $ incomeshave been gained in total up to present (Doğan, 2012: 23). In the
consequence of the selling of public interest that were in the stock of public enterprises
partially or completely through privatization practices of companies with foreign capital, a
total of 15,4 billion $ foreign capital inflow was provided between the years 1988 and 2011
(Doğan, 2012: 51).
Apart from Western Europe and the USA, in over one hundred either developing or
developed countries like Japan, Canada, China, India, Chile, Mexico, Brasil, Turkey, the
Republic of South Africa, and the old Commonwealth of Independent States privatization
actions have taken place. As a result of this, the share of the public sector in national
income has declined constantly in many countries since 1980 (Doğan, 2012: 10). In
worldwide, a total of 2 trillion and 445 billion $ privatization actions took place between
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the years 1988 and 2011 in all the world countries. 1 trillion and 52 billion $ part of this
amount was made by twenty European Union countries. 43 percent of the total
privatization actions were carried out by EU countries and the rest of 57 percent were
carried out by the other countries (Bortolotti, 2012: 10).
Literature and Empirical Analysis
In literature, it is pointed out that the reasons behind privatization programs can be
classified virtually from two aspects as ideologically and pragmatically. In the example of
England, although it is commonly known that the concerns are about the economic
activeness; in fact ideological reasons are the matter; in Finland where it is believed that
the government and the private sector are equally active, and it really is so, privatization
activities are made to stir the interests of the private sector to investments, in Australia and
Spain it is made to improve capital market. There sometimes can be conflicts among the
goals governments follow while conducting their privatization programs. The most
encountered conflict within this scope rises between the goal of providing or enhancing of
competition in the market where the enterprises that are to be privatized are in services and
the goal of government for maximizing the income it will gain through the selling of
property (Temel, 2012: 8).
In some part of the empirical study made on privatization, the productivity and activism
that are revealed by the change of property. While doing this study, labor productivity,
employment, investments, profitability, and the levels of production are compared on the
basis of pre-privatization and post-privatization periods. In the result of the literature
review done by Dura (2006) and Oruç (2003) from this perspective, unlike the defenders of
the theory of property rights; in general it is precipitated that it is not always the matter that
public property is truly passive and there are many empirical studies that show public
enterprises work efficiently and effectively (Dura, 2006: 4-11 & Oruç et al. 2003: 16-23).
In the other part of the empirical study made on privatization, there is the empirical
research that analyzes the effects of privatization on fiscal deficits, public sector borrowing
need, the stock of public debts, inflation, unemployment. In this research, the studies in
both local and foreign literature that belong to this group will be shared.
Kuştepeli and Gülcan (2002) have analyzed the effect of macroeconomic stabilization on
the success of the government in the privatization efforts by using the data related to
Turkey’s economy between the years 1986 and 2002. The hypothesis analyzed in the study
is the failure of Turkish economy, which has difficulty in achieving and maintaining
macroeconomic stability because of this reason. In the study, a model that has predicted on
macroeconomic parameters including privatization income government has gained, real
economic growth, inflation, exchange rate, the stock of public debts, interest rates,
investments of public and private sectors, and unemployment rates has been used.
According to the results of the study, it has been revealed that the effect of debt stock is
ambiguous, while budget deficits affect privatization incomes in a negative way.
Moreover, it has been determined that the effects of exchange rate devaluations and private
sector investments on privatization incomes are positive.
Bortolotti et al. have analyzed why privatization is in the agendas of 34 countries with the
panel data analysis they have done by using data of these thirty four countries between the
years 1977 and 1999. According to the results of empirical analysis, it has been observed
that countries with high public debts, where democracy is powerful, but capital market has
depth and liquidity can carry out privatization policies more easily. Kuştepeli and Gülcan
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(2003) have analyzed whether the government substitutes the stock of public debts with the
privatization income in Turkey in their research. It has been found out that the coefficients
of correlation debt stocks and/or public investments and privatization income for the period
between 1986 and 2002 are positive. When the investments specific to the model are also
added, a negative correlation has been found between correlation debt stocks and/or public
investments and privatization income. This result supports the idea that the more
privatization incomes increase, the less debt stocks and/or public investments decrease.
Katsoulakos and Likoyanni (2002) have analyzed the effects of privatization on public
deficit, public borrowing and the other macroeconomic parameters (unemployment and
growth) for OECD countries with the data related to the years 1990 and 2000 by using
panel data analysis. The results of the study show that there is no relation between
privatization income and budget deficit, there is statistically a significant and negative
relation between privatization income and public debt stock, there is a significant and
negative relation between privatization income, current unemployment and unemployment
rate of previous period, and there is no significant relation between economic growth and
privatization income.
Buhur (2011) has analyzed the effects of privatization actions that have been applied since
1986 in Turkey on public finance. In the result of this study, it is determined that the public
share in economic structure has decreased after the privatization actions, the incomes
acquired with privatizations have contributed to the balance of exchequer and currency in a
positive way. On the other hand, with the selling of public enterprises that are making
losses, the share of transfer expenditures transferred to these enterprises from the budget
has decreased, and this has affected the balance of the budget in a positive way has been
concluded.
Sunderland (2011) has analyzed the economical effects of privatization in 47 developing
countries. In the study completed by using a panel data analysis with the data taken from
the privatization database of World Bank related to the years between 1988 and 2008, a
relation between the increase of privatization income and the deterioration in the balance
of public budget has been found and results that support the hypothesis that the income
gained from the selling of public enterprises will be used to finance a big gap have been
recorded. Barnett (2000) has determined a powerful relation between the incomes earned
from the processes of privatization and the use of common public incomes. The other
important result he has made is the significant relation between macroeconomic
performance and privatization process.
Method and Data
In this study, the effects of the incomes obtained after the privatization actions in Turkey
between the years 1986 and 2012 on budget deficits and the need of public sector
borrowing requirements are analyzed. The models created for the determination of the size
and direction of the relation between privatization incomes and budget deficits and public
sector borrowing requirements have been tested by the method of ordinary least squares
(MOLS). Within a harmony with the previous studies in the literature, being about in the
same models, the rate of budget deficits and the need of public sector borrowing to GDP as
the dependent variable and the rate of inflation rate, population increase and privatization
income to national output as the independent variable have been included in the model.
The variables used in the analysis are summarized in Table 2.
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The data used in the models involve the years between 1986 and 2012. The data related to
privatization income is collected from Doğan (2012) and the Privatization Administration,
the data related to fiscal deficits, gross domestic product, and public sector borrowing
requirements, population increase, and inflation rates are collected from General
Directorate of Budget and Finance Control, Turkish Statistical Institute, and the
Directorate of Strategy Development of Finance Ministry.
Table 2: Variables
Abbreviation
PRV
Variable
Privization Revenues as share of GDP
BDFCT
PSBR
POP
INF
Budget Deficit as share of GDP
Debt-Level as share of GDP
Populaton Growth Rate
Inflation
Resource
Doğan (2012)
Türkiye'de Özelleştirme-2
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Finance
Turkish Statistical Institute
Turkish Statistical Institute
Hypotheses and Models
It is clear that privatization is an important source of income for countries that have high
fiscal deficits and debt stock. Thus, incomes provided through privatization are expected to
have a positive effect on the balance of the budget. This effect is also in the direction of the
decrease of fiscal deficits and public sector borrowing requirements. In this study, the basic
hypotheses generated in the light of the presumptions above are like the ones below:
H1: Privatization incomes have a reducing effect on fiscal deficits.
H2: Privatization incomes have a reducing effect on public sector borrowing requirements.
The validity of these hypotheses that are created for the determination of the size and
direction of the relation between privatization incomes and budget deficits and public
sector borrowing requirements is tested with the help of two basic models below.
Table 3: Regression Models
Model 1: BDFCTt = PRVt POPt INFt µt
Model 2: PSBRt = PRVt POPt INFt µt
Note: In the equations; shows fixed variable, shows coefficients, µt shows error
term and t shows time.
Empirical Findings
One of the most important presumptions of time series is whether the data used in the
models is static or not. In the analysis technique being talked about, it is also necessary to
examine whether the variables are static or not in the period of time when they are
analyzed. Whether the variables used in the models are static or not and if they are so, at
which level they are static have been examined with the extended test of Dickey Fuller
(EDF) and Philips-Peron (PP) tests. In the result of unit root tests, it has been determined
that they haven’t been static on the level of variables and they have become stable in their
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first discrimination. The results of regression analysis made through the ordinary least
squares method are summarized in Table 4.
Table 4: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Results
Model 1
Dependent Variable
∆ BDFCT
Constant
0.333
(0.528)
∆ PRV
291.877
(3.242)***
∆ INF
0.004
(0.217)
∆ POP
11.058
(0.684)
R2
0.353
Adj. R2
0.264
Durbin-Watson
2.04656
F-Value
4.00436
Probability (F-Value)
0.02042
Number of observations
26
t-statistics values showed parenthetically. (***) shows a 1 % level of significance.
Model 2
∆ PSBR
-0.189
(-0.285)
-296.897
(-3.141)***
-0.004
(0.836)
-5.834
(-0.344)
0.328
0.237
1.48833
3.59451
0.02976
26
As it can be concluded from the results of Table 4, as of the period decided in the research
there have been differences in the economic effects of privatization income in Turkey.
Model 1 has been developed to explain whether privatization incomes, inflation rate, and
population increase have an effect on fiscal deficits. According to the results of Model 1,
which has been developed basically for defining the relation between privatization incomes
and fiscal deficits; the expected reducing effect of privatization incomes on fiscal deficits
could not be observed. As opposed to what has been expected, it has been observed that the
relation between privatization incomes and fiscal deficits is statistically significant and
positive.
This state presents the necessity of prioritizing the precautions of lessening the fiscal
deficits in fiscal policies that are to be applied. Model 1 shows that population increase and
inflation rate have a positive effect on fiscal deficits, but are not statistically significant.
Model 2 has been developed to explain whether privatization incomes, inflation rates, and
population increase have an effect on public sector borrowing requirements. Model 2
shows that privatization incomes have a statistically significant and negative effect on
public sector borrowing requirements. There is a negative but statistically insignificant
relation between inflation rate, population increase and public sector borrowing
requirements. This result supports the idea that privatization incomes may have a positive
effect on public finance.
Conclusion
In this research, the financial effects of incomes obtained after the privatization actions
between the years 1986 and 2012, in Turkey. The basic hypothesis examined in the
research is whether privatization, as a tool, has a reducing effect on fiscal deficits and
public sector borrowing requirements or not. To examine this hypothesis, two different
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models (Model 1 and Model 2) have been developed through associating incomes provided
from privatization and some macroeconomic parameters with fiscal deficit, public sector
borrowing requirements, public debt stock. These models have been tested with regression
analysis on the basis of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method.
According to the results of the analysis, as the period decided in the research there have
been differences in the economic effects of privatization income in Turkey. According to
the results of Model 1, which has been developed basically for defining the relation
between privatization incomes and fiscal deficits; the expected reducing effect of
privatization incomes on fiscal deficits could not be observed. Moreover, as opposed to
what has been expected, the relation between privatization incomes and fiscal deficits is in
a positive way. Model 2 has been developed to explain whether privatization incomes,
inflation rates, and population increase have an effect on public sector borrowing
requirements. The regression analysis applied for Model 2 shows that the privatization
incomes have an effect on public sector borrowing requirements in a negative way. Thus,
this result supports the idea that privatization incomes may have a positive effect on public
finance.
References
Barnett, S. (2000). Evidence on the Fiscal and Macroeconomic Impact Privatization.IMF
Working Paper No.00/130 (July 2000), http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.
cfm?abstract_id=879900. Online at: 19.Mar.2013.
Bortolotti, B. (2012). The PB Report 2011.A Publication of the Privatization
Barometer.http://www.privatizationbarometer.net/PUB/NL/4/9/PB_Report_2011.
pdf. Online at: 01.Mar.2013.
Bortolotti, B., FantiniM.& Siniscalco D.(2003).Privatization around The World: Evidence
from Panel Data.Journal of Public Economics (88).pp. 305-332.
Buhur,
S. (2011). Özelleştirme Uygulamalarının Kamu Finansmanı
Değerlendirilmesi.Vergi Sorunları Dergisi. May. 2011, Sayı: 272.
Açısından
Demir, O. (2000). Özelleştirmenin Gerekçeleri ve Engelleri.Atatürk Üniversitesi Ġktisadi ve
Ġdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(1), pp. 11-31.
Doğan, M.N. (2012). Rakamlarla Özelleştirme.Özelleştirme Ġdaresi Başkanlığı, Ankara.
Dura, Y. C. (2006). Mülkiyet-Verimlilik İlişkisi: Uygulamalı (Ampirik) Çalışmalar.Erciyes
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11
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Fiscal Impacts of Privatization in Turkey
Author
Author
SARISOY, Sinan
YILDIZ, Fazli
NAIL SAGDIC, Ersin
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
There are many reasons for that privatization is an attractive application for most of the countries. Since 1980s, fundamental problems that developed and developing countries meet such as economic stagnation, high public deficit, high borrowing cost, high inflation and high burden of tax are forced the countries to find alternative sources of income. In this regard, privatization applications have become an important policy which aims economical, fiscal, political, and social purposes for many countries. On the one hand, privatization incomes obtained from the selling of public enterprises can become a solution to the permanent deficit of public sector. On the other hand, these incomes can be used in the financing of larger deficits arouse because of cyclical reasons. It can be said that it is aimed business activities under private ownership are expected to increase and in addition to this, the reasons of public finance gain importance, public sector decreases and additional sources to increasing public expenditures are formed by using the incomes from the privatization. The proliferation of privatization works around the world has started with Chile and England after 1980s. And because USSR system collapsed and these countries entered to free market system based on private property, privatization increased in these countries. In Turkey, legal infrastructure works concerning privatization have started in the middle of 1980s, but the increase in privatization works has accelerated after 2004. In this study, fiscal impacts of income obtained from the privatization applications in Turkey between 1986 and 2012 are examined. The fundamental hypothesis of this study is whether or not privatization has a detractive effect on budget deficits and public sector borrowing requirement as a tool. To test this hypothesis, two different models estimated has been developed by linking incomes from privatization and some macroeconomic variables with budget deficit, public sector borrowing requirement and public debt stock. In this study, the effect of privatization incomes in turkey on budget deficits and public sector borrowing requirement has been analysed on the basis of ordinary least square method. The discovery of the analysis showed that between 1986- 2012 privatization incomes in Turkey increased budget deficits and increased public sector borrowing requirement. According to the result, it can be expressed that privatization, as a tool which reduces budget deficits does not satisfy the expectations, but because of its reducing effect on public sector borrowing requirement, privatization has a positive effect on public finance. Keywords: Privatization, Fiscal Impacts, Turkey.
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International Burch University
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2013-05-10
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ISSN 978-9958-834-23-3
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94c32b1dd473c6808be1971643cee818
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e1f44736a84f0b22c41eb2e75eb0df3b.pdf
ad85cb4950c6dfe9dab7f41b337ccda7
PDF Text
Text
1st International Annual Student Symposium
answer the entire world close to these. Merchandise is sold definitely not in
line with the business’ models yet upon the potency of the actual customers’
requirements. Therefore, it is vital intended for small businesses to get
attentive to inhabitants work day and also lifestyle changes that are extensively
adopted simply by customers. Shifts with inhabitants and also migration affect
the actual arrangement of your employees and also affect the sort of items
them should buy. In the meantime, prevalent lifestyle changes may affect the
huge benefits corporations must supply to their personnel and also precisely
what items they will offer to their customers.
Fiscal policy and debt in the context of financial crisis: The case of
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Zehra Mahmutović
International Burch University / Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
ABSTRACT
The “Great Recession” that took place in the period of 2008/2012 has caused
the emerging and developing economies to replace advanced economies to lead
global economic growth. Since this crisis has been characterized as being both
global and severe, but furthermore as a good tool for testing the strength and
credibility of economic policies and theories, the complete recuperation could
take many years. The economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina was in structural
crisis before the economic crisis, due to its lack of planned development,
incompetent government structures, and political interference in economic
decision making. The holders of fiscal and monetary policy in Bosnia and
Herzegovina today are not taking significant measures in order to promote
growth and sustainability. The situation is thus, that public spending is
excessive, public debt is constantly growing, as well as current account deficit,
and unemployment rate. An economy cannnot be successfully managed
without an appropriate balance and harmony between its fiscal and monetary
20 |
�BOOK OF ABSTRACTS
policy which in the period of financial turbulences will shorten the duration of
recession and stimulate the aggregate demand. In the continuation of this
paper, I will briefly try to define the effects of recent financial crisis on fiscal
policy, and public debt of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and define the course of
actions that will perhaps lead toward improvements of this emerging economy.
Effects of openness of leaders in success of organizations
Amine Khadyr
International Burch University / Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
ABSTRACT
Nowadays many seminars, conferences and courses held and books written in
order to improve leadership skills of different kinds of leaders from all over the
world. However the openness of leaders in the organization has not been
mentioned seriously as it is one of the main skills that successful leaders should
have. In this research paper my intention was to demonstrate the idea that
openness of leaders is directly related with the success of organization. With the
present study, I argue that the characteristic of leaders that is openness of
leader’s plays as big role for the effectiveness of employees as well as success of
the organization. It is very important because many organizations nowadays fail
to operate because of its leader’s lacked skills.
| 21
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1418
Title
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Fiscal policy and debt in the context of financial crisis: The case of Bosnia and Herzegovina
Author
Author
MAHMUTOVIC, Zehra
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
The “Great Recession” that took place in the period of 2008/2012 has caused the emerging and developing economies to replace advanced economies to lead global economic growth. Since this crisis has been characterized as being both global and severe, but furthermore as a good tool for testing the strength and credibility of economic policies and theories, the complete recuperation could take many years. The economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina was in structural crisis before the economic crisis, due to its lack of planned development, incompetent government structures, and political interference in economic decision making. The holders of fiscal and monetary policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina today are not taking significant measures in order to promote growth and sustainability. The situation is thus, that public spending is excessive, public debt is constantly growing, as well as current account deficit, and unemployment rate. An economy cannnot be successfully managed without an appropriate balance and harmony between its fiscal and monetary policy which in the period of financial turbulences will shorten the duration of recession and stimulate the aggregate demand. In the continuation of this paper, I will briefly try to define the effects of recent financial crisis on fiscal policy, and public debt of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and define the course of actions that will perhaps lead toward improvements of this emerging economy.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2013
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
H Social Sciences (General)
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https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/1443e25b825452ce4455fd9d898d592f.pdf
33006d4010df00fdaf386e282e4d6036
PDF Text
Text
1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo
Fish Health in Sustainable Development of Agriculture
Erol Tokşen
Ege University, Fisheries Faculty
Department of Fish Diseases
Đzmir, Turkey
erol.toksen@ege.edu.tr
Haşmet Çağıgan
Ege University, Fisheries Faculty
Department of Fish Diseases
Bornova 5100 Đzmir, Turkey
hasmet.cagirgan@ege.edu.tr
Uğur Değirmenci
Ege University, Fisheries Faculty
Department of Fish Diseases
Đzmir, Turkey
ugur.degirmenci@ege.edu.tr
Egemen Nemli
Ege University, Fisheries Faculty
Department of Fish Diseases
Đzmir, Turkey
egemen.nemli@ege.edu.tr
Meh met Ali Canyurt
Ege University, Fisheries Faculty
Department of Fish Diseases
Đzmir, Turkey
m.ali.canyurt@ege.edu.tr
Abstract: Aquaculture is a fast-growing food production sector. The gradually increase of this
production of fish resulted in serious pathological problems in all countries where intensive
aquaculture is practiced. Sustainable development of aquaculture relies on disease prevention.
With an intensification of operations, the risk of disease occurence and spread of infectious
increases. In aquaculture prevention is a key issue more than in other animal productions in
health management. The risk of the diseases increases with the intensification of the
production and can be controlled mainly trough the implementation of sanitary or medical
prophylactic programs. Sanitation relates to hygienic rules, cleaning and disenfection
procedures, water treatment, but also good feeding and rearing practies. Good husbandry and
vaccination programs should be applied. Diseases maps and certificaitons programs and
regulations must be established. The aim of this paper is to present general overview of
important applications for sanitation in sustainable aquaculture.
Keywords: Fish, aquaculture, prevention, sanitation, disinfection
1. Introduction
The intensification of aquaculture and globalization of the seafood trade have led to remarkable
developmentsin the aquaculture industry. The industry has been plagued with disease problems caused by viral,
bacterial,fungal and parasitic pathogens. In recent years, disease outbreaks are becoming more frequent in the
aquacultureindustry and the associated mortality and morbidity have caused substantial economic losses. Health
problems have two fiscal consequences on the industry: loss of productivity due to animal mortality and
morbidity, and loss oftrade due to food safety issues. Thus,disease is undoubtedly one ofthe major constraints
to production, profitability and sustainability ofthe aquaculture industry.
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�1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo
Infectious diseases have always been limiting factors for aquaculture. High population density, adverse
environmental conditions and poorly designed culture systems frequently cause to stress consequenlty reduce to
immunity of fish to pathogens. Bacteria, viruses, parasites and fungi can cause outbreaks and high level
mortality. All viral, many parasites and some of the bacterial diseases can not be treated with the chemicals
successfully. Itis reality that the treatment of a diseases is expensive and more difficultthan prevention (Ahne
and Winton, 1986). The ways of prevention and contingently of medicaltreatment of fish are very specific and
often different from those in warm-blooded animals. They require a thorough knowledge of the environment of
fish. Preventive arrangements are consisting of complicated set of treatments elaborated on the base of a good
knowledge of the aetiology of disease and a host (fish) biology. It concerns the elimination or restriction of
infection (invasion) sources and the possibilities of its further expansion likewise the enhancement of condition
of fish organism in the way to be able to withstand the infection (invasion). The prevention is of basic
importance in diseases elimination. No specifictherapeutics were developed for a number of diseases up to now
and the result ofthe application of effective, experimentally verified medicaments,is often reversely affected by
the operational conditions and/or the technology of rearing. The medical treatment becames economically
unrenumerative in this way.
In addition, some treatments cannot be performed in certain periods, e.g.in growing season, during the
wintering, orin some fish culture units(e.g.large ponds). Thatis why itis much more importantto prevent from
the diseases than to recover them. The effective preventive treatments are to be applied above allin specialized
fish culture units with closed warm water system, in early fish fry rearing, hatcheries, trout farms, wintering
ponds, net cages rearing and storage reservoirs.
2. Preventive Measures in Fish Health
2.1. Providing Water Sources Free of Pathogens
Underground waters are the most suitable water sources free of pathogens. These sources are limited
both for trout farms and hatcheries and for other special fish culture units at present. All surface water may
contain species of wild fish which can act as reservoirs ofinfectious diseases (Roberts, 1989). The surface water
from rivers and channels is used as the source of inflow waterin most cases.In these situations, suitable filters
can partially reduce the numbers of invasion stages of parasites in inflow water, above all when supplying
smaller reservoirs with intensive culture. Bars are usually placed before these filtersto separate rough particles.
Sand filters are consisted of a set of sedimentation divisions terminated by filter with fibre and sand. These type
of filters catch above allthe heavier parasite stages unable to move actively (e.g. spores). Lower efficiency is
registered in elimination of moving parasites like e.g. infusorians (Tesarčík & Svobodová, 1991). The water
from the pond with fish stock is quite unsuitable for these purposes (esp. as the source ofinflow water for trout
farms, hatcheries and unitsfor early fish fry stages).
Chemical treatment of inflow water is an emergency arrangement with often undesirable parallel
affects. Disinfection ofthe water entering fish culture unitsby UV radiation is an usual way can be considered as
the simple method how to destroy viruses, bacteria and moulds germs. Since the inflow water from rivers and
channelsis slightly turbid and contents a number of suspended solids and dissolved compounds,the disinfective
efficiency of UV radiation is markedly reduced in these situations (Liltved et al., 1995; Maisse et al., 1981;
Kimura et al., 1976).
Itis very profitable to supply the individual ponds and/or reservoirs independently, not throughflowly.
The water from each pond or reservoir should be drained separately and should not flow into any other.
Especially quarantine ponds and other reservoirs can be separated by this way.
2.2. Protection From the Transfer of Pathogens
This principle means above allthe transfer of pathogens by uncontrolled transport of fish and spawns.
The transport of fish with unknown health condition isto be avoided in principle. Alltransported fish are to be
accompanied by veterinary certificate confirming that fish were examined before transporting them, they are
healthy and originate from the environment in which no important transfer diseases appear. Some viral and
bacterial diseases can be transfered also by spawns. Their transport must be completed by the same veterinary
certificatelike fish transportfrom this reason (FAO, 1988).
Eggs can act as an important vehicle fortransmission of diseases from parentto offspring and between
hatcheries because opportunistic pathogens may be present in epiflore of fish eggs. The surface disinfection of
eggs reduces the probabilityof development of pathogens (Planas & Cunha, 1999). Disinfection of eyed rainbow
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trout eggs is important to reduce egg and fry mortalities by the reason of Flavobacterium psychrophilum
(Rangdale et al., 1979). Egg can be disinfected by polyvinyl pyrolidone iodine or hydrogen peroxide. Both can
be used 100 ppm for 10 minutes bath. However shouldbe neutralised with sodium thiosulphate if iodine used
(Bruno, 1995).
Fish introduced from otherterritories must be subjected to quarantine for one yearregardlessif native or
extraneous species. The duration of quarantine can be prolongated e.g.in the case of fish imported from abroad
until the period of 3 years. Prolongated period of quarantine is of special importance especially in spawners
predestined for further reproduction ofimported species (Rosenthal, 1988).
The selfsustaining in stock production in individualfarms and similar organizations is a significant way
of prevention from dissemination of fish diseases. Only fish previously examined,free of diseases and relevantly
treated by medicinal baths are to be stocked into ponds and fish culture units. The stocking of fry originating
from semi-artificial and artificial spawning not contacted with fish of higher age categories also minimizes the
danger ofinfection.
The prevention from introduction of coarse fish into ponds and fish culture unitsisthe other important
arrangement protecting the stock against transfer of pathogens. These fish are above all the source of
ectoparasites, dangerous especially in the period of decreased resistence of fish. Except ofthisthey can transfer
also some other pathogens which can resultin heavy losses in important fish species. Adequate bars and filters
can serve for prevention from coarse fish penetration.
The protection of piscivorous birds to step into fish culture units (esp. trout farms) is the prevention
limiting the expansion of some fish diseases as IPN (Wolf, 1988). Protective nets are used to prevent the birds
from running in. The numbers of piscivorous birds are regulated in localities where overpopulated. Preventive
control of snails (Lymnaea sp.) as intermediate hosts of some fish parasites can be performed by biological
(introduction of black carp, Myelopharyngodon piceus or 3-years-old tench, Tinca tinca), mechanical (placing
nets in the inflow), physical (drying and freezing of the bottom) and chemical (application of molluscocides)
ways.
Safe and harmless removing of dead fish is a significant way how to prevent from further transfer of
fish pathogens. Fresh or slightly decayed dead fish are decontaminated in the nearest veterinary facility. Lower
masses of dead fish are to be burnt or burried into deep pits (aprox. 2 m) in distance of at least 20 m from the
pond bank. The bottom of this pit and dead fish must be covered by burnt or chlorinated lime. The layer of at
least 60 – 80 cm ofthe soil must coverthe content of a pit(Tesarčík & Svobodová, 1991).
2.3. Responsible Movement of Live Aquatic Animals
Increased trade of live aquatic animals and the introduction of new species for farming, without proper
quarantine and risk analysis in place, result in the further spread of diseases. A scientific process should be
undertaken to assist decision making regarding the risks versus the benefits for the species intended to be
imported. Such an importrisk analysisincludes hazard identification,risk assessment,risk management and risk
communication (Rosenthal, 1988, Bondad-Reantaso et al.,2005).
2.4. Disinfection of Ponds, Fish Culture Units And Equipment
Disinfection is of a big importance in prevention and elimination of fish diseases. Preventive
disinfection protectsthe fish stocks against pathogens. Hygiene of environmental conditions forfish isimproved
by this way. Focal disinfection is performed for control ofthe focus of dangerous fish disease.
Natural physical phenomena are fully used for disinfection in intensive fish culture due to their
ecomical convenience. It concerns the drying and freezing ofthe pond bottom. The most of pathogens die after
perfect drying of the pond bottom when its relative moisture had dropped on 10–15 %. The perfect freezing of
the wet places and sun radiation (above all by its UV rays) have a very favourable effectin ponds. The influence
of these natural physical phenomena is exploited by summer drying and winter freezing of water reservoirs
(Tesarčík & Svobodová, 1991).
Chemical disinfection is an effective way of prevention from fish diseases. Usually accessible
disinfective preparations are used in fish culture (e.g. burnt lime, chlorinated lime, nitrogen lime, natrium
hydroxide, potassium permanganate,formaldehyde, chloramine, chlorseptol etc.). Burntlime is mostly employed
for disinfection of the bottom of ponds and reservoirsin the dose of 2.5–3 t.ha-1, or chlorinated lime in the dose
of 0.5 – 0.6 t.ha-1.In case of myxosporoses, nitrogen lime (5 t.ha-1, or 0.5 kg.m-2) isto be applied. Immediately
after fishing out the pond, the disinfection of fishing pit, pond ditches and muddy wet places is performed on
large ponds where the whole-surface bottom disinfection is not possible. 5% water solution of formaldehyde,
chlorinated lime (200 – 400 mg.1-1), 0.5 % water solution of natrium hydroxide, Chloramine and chlorseptol (30
g.1-1) or other disinfectants can be used for treatment of concrete channels, troughs and other arrangements
employed for fish culture. The same disinfectants and concentrations are to be used for the treatment of the
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�1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo
equipment. Potassium permanganate (5 g.l-1) and other disinfectants can be also employed for these purposes
(Bruno, 1995, De Kinkelin etal., 1985, Le Breton, 2003b).
2.5. Optimalization of Environmental Conditions
The optimalization of natural environmental conditions is the main pre-condition how to ensure the
good health condition of stock during the rearing period. The following principles must be ensured. Optimal
water quality without stressing physico-chemical effects. Keeping the oxygen concentration on optimallevel and
protection against water pollution are of specialimportance,(Tesarčík and Svobodová, 1991).
2.6. Good Husbandry Practices
Choosing the optimal fish density is important. Depending on the fish species and water quality
conditions (especially the oxygen saturation of the water, there is a certain fish density that should not be
exceeded. A com mon mistake is to increase the stocking density to compensate for a decrease in survival rate.
Thisis a source of stressforthe fishthat can lead to skin injuries,low performance and a higher susceptibilityto
disease.In contrast,stocking fish optimally willallow fishto grow to their best potentialand decreasethe risk of
disease outbreaks (Tan et al.,2006).
2.7. Good Feed Management
Fish should be fed with a balanced diet as nutritional deficiency can have an adverse impact on
immunity and disease resistance. Dry pelleted feed adapted to each farmed speciesis preferred overtrash fish as
it gives a consistent supply of nutrientsfree from pathogens. Some internationalfeed companies have invested a
considerable amount of resources in the development and supply of nutritionally-balanced pelleted feed for
marine and freshwater fish. A wider usage of pelleted diet should contribute to an increase of the overall health
status ofthe fish,thereby reducing nutrition deficiencies and the risk of disease. At the farm, dry feed should be
appropriately stored in a cool and ventilated environment to avoid moulding that could lead to mycotoxicity
problems (Tan et al., 2006).
Live food as Artemia, Rotifer and algae are used to feed marine fish larvae. Improvementin live food
culture trough the introduction of new techniques or products has also represented a major step. Bacteriostatic
coumponds in Artemia culture enrichments represent a major help in controlling the level of hygiene and the
development of bacterial flora in both live food culture and larval tanks. Bacterisid treatment such as
formaldehyde can also be applied and eventually combined with probioticsto re-equilibratethe flora(Gatesoupe,
2002a). Trash fish bivalve mollusc, octopus, krill are used for feeding marine fish broodstock and some times
for trout.It has been reported that IPN virus isolated from rotifer (Comps et al., 1990) and some bacteria have
isolated from artemia. Ichthyophoniasis have reported by eating contaminated trash fish in rainbow trout
(Holiman, 1993), cod, herring and sea bass (Bodatilla & Pellittero, 1990).
2.8. Regular Control of Health Condition And Preventive Treatment of Fish
Preventive control of health condition isto be carried outin hatcheries and early fry rearing unitstwice
a week, and in highly productive intensificated ponds, trout farms and fish culture units with recycling water
weekly. Other stocks (esp.in usual pond culture) areinvestigated monthly.
Health condition of fish is always to be controlled before fishing out, transporting fish and stocking.
Preventive treatment can be suggested on the base of investigational results. This treatment is performed above
all by the application of medicaments into the water environment and feeding by medicated feeds. During the
past years, the use of immunostimulants in marine species production has increased (Sakai, 1999, Efthimiou,
1996) especially on larval and juvenil stages (Valdstein, 1997). Theirindications in non-specific prevention are
multiple: before handlng or stressful situation, to reduce the risk of mortality after transfer, for broodstock
during the maturation period and to prepare fish for vaccination and increas theirimmun respponse.
2.9. Selection of Hatchery-Raised Fingerlings
The overall health status of fry and fingerlings is a critical factor for a successful production cycle.
W hen choosing a species to be farmed, preference should be given to species that are already available from
hatcheries. The attention given to fish in the hatchery, and the availability of specific larval diets required to
obtain strong juveniles, will allow for a constant supply of good quality fingerlings (Tan et al., 2006).
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2.10. To Minimize Stress
Stress can be defined as any stimulus (physical, chemical or environmental) which tends to disrupt
homeostasisin an animal. Under stressful conditions,fish must expend more energy to maintain homeostasis and
less energy to combat disease (Edmondson, 1991). Aquatic organisms are fundamentally different from
terrestrial animals:they are im mersed in their environment and can not go somewhere else. Some disease agents
are almost always present in the water (Muroga et al., 1986). These opportunistic pathogens will invade fish
when they become stressed.
Some good practicesto reduce stressinclude:
a) Starvation before handling of fish: handling is a source of stress as it puts fish under extreme
conditions (overcrowding, manipulation outside the water, etc.). Starving the fish for 24-48 hours prior
to handling will reduce stress and will avoid the deterioration of water quality when fish are
overcrowded.
b) Sedation during handling and transportation:in situations such as handling or transportation,fish are
overcrowded. Therefore, there is a higher risk of skin injuries. To avoid such damage, sedation using
approved fish anaesthetics/sedativesisrecommended asit decreasesthelevel of stress and possible skin
injuries.
c) Grading of fish to give a homogeneous population: when size variation increases in a cage,it often
creates competition between the larger and the smaller fish. This can resultin stress, especially for the
smaller fish. In addition, when feeding, the bigger fish are stronger and get more feed. As a
consequence, the smaller fish get weaker and more susceptible to disease. As they get sick,they will
also become a source of infection for bigger fish as size variation is also a source of cannibalism
(leading to horizontal disease transmission).
d) To maintain good water quality: water quality should be monitored on a regular basis and be
maintained at optimal conditions.
e) To avoid over-feeding: over-feeding can induce stress and unconsumed feed will pollute the water
(Tesarčík & Svobodová, 1991).
2.11. Record Keeping And Disease Monitoring
Record keeping is crucial in understanding the epidemiology of diseases and can also allow us to
identify critical management points in the production cycle. The collection of this historical data will help us
take early action in the case of disease outbreaks. Often, in small scale operations, recording of farming
parameters such as daily mortality,feed consumption, growth rate and water quality parameters is not standard
(Tan et al., 2006).
2.12. Proper Disease Diagnosis – a Prerequisite for Effective Health Management
As aquatic animal health management is about implementation of control measures to prevent the
incidence of diseases,itis a prerequisiteto have a good understanding of diseasesthat might occurin a particular
fish species. Therefore, adequate attention should be given to disease diagnosis and epidemiology studies. As an
example,a diseaseinvestigation and epidemiology study overthelast past 5 yearsin Asian seabass have allowed
us to identify the most critical pathogens in this species (Grisez et al., 2005; Komar et al., 2005; Labrie et al.,
2005a).
2.13. Vaccination, a Powerful Tool That Complements Other Health Management Practices
In Europe as in others countries such as North America, The legislative framework is being developed
for the marketing of veterinary products, limiting the number of licensed products available for treatment in
aquaculture. The increasing request of the consumers for quality products, the implementation of quality
schemes and enviromentalissues are pressuring the procudersto reduce the use of antibioticin their production.
For these main reasons, fish vaccinlogy is becoming a major issue and an alternative in Aquaculture Health
Management (Le Breton, 2003a).
There are many problems associated with the use of antibiotics. In addition to developing antibiotic
resistance, sick fish often do not eat and the efficiency of delivering antibiotics orally is often questionable
(MacMillan, 2001; Smith et al.,1994). Two key technical com ments should be made regarding antibiotics: 1) by
nature they are active mainly against bacterial pathogens and have no direct effect against viral and other
pathogens and 2) antibiotics work only as long as they are presentin the appropriate concentration in the target
organ. Whereas the use of antibioticsis a curative measure totreat an existing infection,in contrast, vaccination
is a preventative measure, dependent on the immune system of the animal.
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�1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo
Vaccines can act against bacterial, viral and, at least experimentally, parasitic infections and they will
usually act only against the targeted pathogens. The duration of protection obtained with vaccines normally
largely exceeds that of antibiotics.
Vaccines are various preparations of antigens derived from specific pathogenic organisms that are
rendered non-pathogenic. They stimulate the immune system and increase the resistance to disease from
subsequent infection by the specific pathogen(s). Vaccination can be compared with an insurance policy - itis
worth paying a basicfee for a policy that would later coverthe costs of a more expensive diseasethat may occur.
Similarly, vaccination is a preventive measure that protects fish against a future disease and the associated costs
due to morbidity, mortality and therapeutic treatment (Ellis, 1988). However, just as an insurance policy will
cover the costs of an accident only if this fits the clauses of the insurance contract, a vaccine (generally) only
protects against specific diseases. For example, a vaccine against S. iniae infection will protect the vaccinated
fish against this specific species of Streptococcus but not against another streptococcal species such as S.
Agalactiae (Tan et al., 2006).
Specific, very effective way of prevention from diseases is the vaccination of fish. Vaccines against
following relevant viral and bacterial diseases are recently tested with different success: CCV, IPN, SVC, VHS,
IHN, furunculosis, ER M, and vibriosis (Le Breton, 2003). Individual vaccines are applied intraperitoneally,
perorally orinthe form of bath. Peroral application or bath are most suitable ways from the point of view of fish
culture practice. Also vaccines againstsome otherfish diseasesincluding parasitoses are currently developed (Li
and Woo, 1995).
However,it must be remembered that vaccination is only one of the tools for good health management
and it is not sufficient on its own to guarantee high survival and profitability. All the measures mentioned
previously are needed to sustain a successful aquaculture industry.
2.14. Applications of Therapeutic Substances
Fish are subjected to therapy in those cases when a disease is so developed thatthe life or performance of
the fishisimmediately endangered or expected to be endangered inthe subsequent period. Therapeutictreatment
should be regarded as emergency measure resorted to when prevention has failed. The therapeutic treatments
may be as follows:
a. application of therapeutic substances and preparations to the aquatic environment (therapeutic baths
for fish and eggs)
b. administration oftherapeutic substances in feed
c. administration oftherapeutic substances via a probe
d. administration oftherapeutic substances by means ofinjections
Therapeutic substances are put into water to control ectoparasitic, fungal and bacterial diseases of the
body surface and the gills.In some cases the therapeutic baths can also be used (after absorption of the active
substances via the skin) for controlling the causative agents of internal diseases. According to the lenght of
exposure,the therapeutic baths are subdivided as follows:
1. immersion baths (up to 5 minutes)
2. short-term baths (5 minutes to 2 hours)
3. long-term baths (2 hours to several days)
The long-term baths also include the treatment, with therapeutic substances, of whole fish culture
reservoirs and ponds (Herman,1972).
To perform the therapeutic baths effectively and to avoid losses ofthe fish, a number of general principles
must be respected,including:
a) The state of health of the fish stock must be continuously monitored so that the most effective
therapeutic bath can be promptly chosen and applied:fishin an advanced phase of a disease are exhausted
and weak and can be easily killed by exposure tothe drug in the bath.
b) The results of examination of the fish serve as a basis for determining the type of therapeutic bath.
Most ofthe therapeutic preparations are toxicto the fish at higher concentrations, so the instructions have
to be strictly adhered to. The substances and preparations used for the baths must be fresh, packed in
original containers. The dose to be used in the bath must be accurately calculated to avoid poisoning the
fish by overdosage, orto avoid a poor effectifthe dose istoo low.
c) Fresh and uncontaminated water must be used to prepare the solution for the bath. The physicochemical characteristics (temperature, pH, concentration of organic substances, acid capacity etc.) of the
water influence the effectiveness of the therapeutic substances and preparations and also theirtoxicity to
the fish.
d) A tolerance test must have been conducted before any bath. The tolerance testis a bioassay on several
fish to see the safety or harmfulness of the therapeutic bath for the fish stock to be treated under the
existing conditions.
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�1st International Syposium on Sustainable Development, June 9-10 2009, Sarajevo
e) The therapeutic baths themselves are carried out in all-glass tanks, fibre-glass tubs, vats, fibre-glass
plastictroughs,in concrete or earth storage basins or straightinthe ponds.Itis also possible to subjectthe
fishto short-term therapeutic bathsinthetransport boxes during shipmentifthe shipment time isthe same
as, or shorterthan,the recommended exposure time.
The fish should have been given no feed before an immersion bath or a short-term bath to avoid
increased need for oxygen (for example, one to three feedings are skipped on the trout farms). Fish exposed to
long-term baths, with several days' exposure times, have to be fed with supplementary feeds. Emergency
scenarios must be prepared forthe prevention of possible accidents: water aeration facilities must be ready for
use, or precautions should be made for promptly removing the fish from the bath and putting them in fresh
(preferably flowing) water, or an emergency inlet of clean and safe water must be available for fast dilution of
the bath solution. The tanks or reservoirs with the therapeutic solutions should never be overstocked.
f) When the treatment is finished the fish should be removed from the bath and put into clean
(preferably flowing) water. If the treatment was performed in a whole pond, the inlet source must be
strong enough to allow for rapid dilution of the bath solution. All regulations and standards regarding
surface water quality conservation must be respected in discharging the used therapeutic solution
outside the fish culture facility. In the majority of cases the used solutions are disposed of outside the
aquatic environment: for example, they are leftto seep into the ground in places free of the danger of
penetration into surface or underground waters.
g) The effectiveness of the therapeutic baths must be checked by macro- and microscopic examination
of 5 fish atthe minimum from each pond ortank afterthe rinsing ofthetreated fishin clean water. This
must be done immediately afterthe bath, within one day ofthe termination ofthe bath atthe latest.
h) It is a general principle that market fish should not be treated by therapeutic baths 14 days before
shipment tothe market.
i) Alllabour safety precautions must be taken during thetreatment offish by therapeutic baths(Tesarčík
and Svobodová, 1991).
2.15. Using Chemicals/Antibiotics:
W hile under certain circumstances antibiotics can help to control some bacterial diseases, there are
many problems associated with their use. Also, as sick fish do not eat,the efficiency of delivering antibiotics
orally is often questionable.
Most countries have strict regulations on the use of antibiotics and chemicals. For example, malachite
green, chloramphenicol and furazolidone are actually banned from use in most due to their teratogenic effects
and severe measures are taken against exporters of fish and shellfish that contain residues (Alderman, 2003).
Regulations on acceptable withdrawal periods must be adhered to.
Between species, differences existin drug disposition and metaboliteformation. Moreover,temperature
and composition ofthe water (fresh/salt water, pH value, hardness, organic material content, etc.) may affectthe
absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of drugs. Per species,relevant pharmacokinetic data are often
lacking. Therefore, extrapolation of data from one species to anotheris difficult(Intervet,2003).
Changes inthe taste of water caused by the addition of antibiotics can influence the intake of medicated
feed negatively. Also, chemotherapeutics can negatively influence the immune system of fish (Grondel et al.,
1987). Added to the water in recirculation systems (e.g.,for eel, catfish and turbot), antibiotics may disturb the
biological clearing systems and (bio)filters. Especially in aquaria, there is a risk of serious disturbance when
antibiotics/biocides are not used properly. Added to the water, antibiotics can rapidly lead to induction of
resistant bacterial strains. The following attention should be paid regarding the use of chemicals/antibiotics:
Tips fortreatment of fish:
• Antibiotics should be used only as alastresort.
• Definite disease diagnosis, including antibiotic sensitivity, should be made before administering
antibiotics.
• Observe the regulations on banned chemotherapeutants. Maximum residue limits and withdrawal
periods should be considered before harvesting the fish.
• The tolerance of the species should be known. For safety reasons, always first try the
chemical/antibiotic at a given dose and treatment time with a small number of fish. Fish of different
species and sizes under different water conditions (salinity, alkalinity and temperature) may well react
differently.In general,lower watertemperature requires alonger treatment duration and vice versa.
• Follow the correct dose and treatment time. Pay close attention to concentration of the active
ingredient and adjustthe dose accordingly ifthe chemicalisnot pure (< 100% active).
•If using an immersion approach, add the chemical/antibioticto a small portion of the waterin a small
container and make sure it is dissolved completely before use. Then pour this ‘concentrate’ into a
tank/containerto reach the desired final concentration and mix well before placing the fish into it.
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• Withhold feed for 8-24 hours depending on the fish size.
• Treat during the coolest partof the day.
• Monitor water oxygen levels before, during and aftertreatment;if necessary, aerate as required.
• Keep a close watch on the fish during treatment and be prepared to stop treatment im mediately if
adverse reactions (e.g., gasping for air,strange swimming behaviour,etc.) are noted.
•In some cases, such as the occurrence of a serious disease problem, eradication should be considered.
Eradication includes removal of all susceptible species followed by thorough cleaning and disinfection
of the cages/nets or ponds (Herwig, 1979).
3. Conclusion
In conclusion, some ofthe practices recommended forthe fish farming industry for disease control are:
- Protectfrom the transfer of pathogens
- Controllive aquatic animals movements
- Select hatchery-raised fingerlings
- Quarantine incoming animals
- Use pathogen free formulated pelleted feed
- Disinfectthe ponds,fish culture units and equipment
- Monitor water quality
- Optimize environmental conditions
- Good husbandry practices
- Grade fish periodically
- Controlthe health condition regularly
- Minimize stress
- Record disease monitoring
- Remove dead fish atleast once a day
- Diagnose the diseases
- Vaccinate the fish
- Applicatetherapeutic substances properly)
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Extent
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488
Title
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Fish Health in Sustainable Development of Agriculture
Author
Author
Toksen, Erol
Çağıgan, Hasmet
Değirmenci, Uğur
Nemli, Egemen
Canyurt, Mehmet Ali
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Aquaculture is a fast-growing food production sector. The gradually increase of this production of fish resulted in serious pathological problems in all countries where intensive aquaculture is practiced. Sustainable development of aquaculture relies on disease prevention. With an intensification of operations, the risk of disease occurence and spread of infectious increases. In aquaculture prevention is a key issue more than in other animal productions in health management. The risk of the diseases increases with the intensification of the production and can be controlled mainly trough the implementation of sanitary or medical prophylactic programs. Sanitation relates to hygienic rules, cleaning and disenfection procedures, water treatment, but also good feeding and rearing practies. Good husbandry and vaccination programs should be applied. Diseases maps and certificaitons programs and regulations must be established. The aim of this paper is to present general overview of important applications for sanitation in sustainable aquaculture.
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2009-06
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
Q Science (General)
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87903b58e5eabddcee01e3f84e626ebc
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IT Senior Design Projects
Description
An account of the resource
The IT Senior Design Projects (SDPs) category showcases innovative and practical final-year capstone projects developed by undergraduate and graduate students in the field of Information Technology. These projects represent the culmination of students' academic and technical expertise, demonstrating their ability to solve real-world problems through software and hardware solutions.
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Fits ‘n Finds
Author
Author
Dario Karadžin
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
This project presents "Fits 'n Finds," a web-based marketplace designed for the secure and transparent buying and selling of new and used clothing. The application addresses the need for a reliable platform that protects users from fraudulent pricing and ensures fair transactions.
The system is implemented using a standard web stack, with a PHP backend and a MySQL database. Frontend functionality is handled with HTML, CSS, and JavaScript. Key features include robust user authentication with email verification, secure payment processing via the Stripe API, and scalable image storage using Google Cloud Storage (GCS). A unique scam detection mechanism is integrated into the item posting process, which analyzes an item's attributes to suggest a fair market price, thereby safeguarding both buyers and sellers.
The results of the implementation demonstrate a fully functional e-commerce platform that successfully manages user accounts, item listings, and a secure checkout process.
In conclusion, "Fits 'n Finds" provides a dependable and user-friendly solution for the online apparel market. The project's success is attributed to its focus on security and transparency, creating a trustworthy environment for its users.
Keywords
Keywords.
E-commerce, Marketplace, Web Application, PHP, Security, Scam Detection
e-commerce
sdp
web application
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941ba6ebf213fa3260fe173895a1d5e3
PDF Text
Text
Flower and Fruit Abscission in Orchards
Nilda ERSOY
Selçuk University, Agricultural Faculty,
Horticultural Department,
42031, Konya/Türkiye,
nersoy@selcuk.edu.tr
Mustafa BEKTAŞ
Selçuk University, Agricultural Faculty,
Horticultural Department,
42031, Konya/Türkiye,
mbarsiv@gmail.com
Cumhur ERSOY
Akdeniz University, Vocational High School,
07070, Antalya/Türkiye,
cersoy@akdeniz.edu.tr
Abstract: A small part of flowers which occurs by blooming and have fruit set stay on tree
till harvest in fruit trees. If all flowers transformed to the fruit the tree would not feed these,
not to be completed developing and decreased their quality. Hence, both the tree and growers
are affected negatively. Researches show that even have good fertilization and growing
conditions most of the flowers and fruits abscise. In fruit culture abscission of the flower and
fruit is four forms. These ones are; flower, small fruit, June and pre-harvest period abscission.
Many factors effect flower and fruit abscission. These ones are; lack of the fertilization,
inadequate nutrition, lack of the plant growth regulators, diseases, pests and abnormal
environmental factors, respectively.
In this research, concerning reasons of flower and fruit abscission and the measures against
these situations are evaluated.
Key Words: Flower, fruit, abscission
1- Introduction
Flower and fruit falls are one of the most important subject interest searchers and growers in fruit
culture. These falls are called abscission in literature. Abscission is the sequence of events whereby a
multicellular organ (e.g. leaf, flower, fruit, branch) becomes separated from the parent body. Abscission
genetically programmed and control by plant growth regulators (Osborne 1989). When plants reached an
apparent maturity and agedness stage fall their organs skin, branch, bud, leaf, flower etc as a development
symptom.
Abscissions are not exclusion of dead tissues contrary an active disconnection event. Abscissions
realize in different organs and different times as a result of cellular and chemical changes occur in abscission
layer (Burak 1994).
As a rule, fall is postponed as long as an organ to continue in the physiological activity. However,
physiological activity is complete, disease or physiological activity for any reason that the layout of the damaged
organs can be seen that appears to fall (Kaynaş 2004).
As it is known in fruit culture to get any crop one of the first condition is blooming. Enough to get a
product is required for adequate blooming. In a good fertilization and maintenance conditions 15-20% of apple
flowers in the open, pears 8-15% , citruses 1-3%, plums 3-4.5% , grapes 20-30%, olives 1-5% , raspberries 7080% (Kaynaş, 2004), avocado 0.2% (Anonymous 2007a) are a good yield when the fruit connected in this rates.
Kiwi fruit, except that normally do not have the abscission and all the flowers to connect fruit (Anonymous
2007b).
1
�2- Taxonomy of Flower and Fruit Abscission in Fruit culture
4 groups of flowers and fruit in the fruit growing in the abscission it is possible to collect. These are
flowers abscission, small fruit abscission, June abscission and pre-harvest abscission.
2.1. Flower Abscission
The abscission occurs immediately after flowering. Why the lack of fertilization or damaged occur and
in terms of the structure of the female organs are distorted, especially in deciduous flowers can be seen as
rudimentary pistil. For example, 6% of pistachio in the flowers maturity yet to be accepted (receptivity) would
die without access (Anonymous 2007c).
Atrophy of the female organ with olive abscission sometimes 80% is reached. The average is 2 weeks.
In fruit trees such as avocado (abscission takes 3 weeks and almost all the abscission will perform (Anonymous
2007a) in this process in the time of full bloom to apply growth inhibitors like paclobutrazol or uniconazole
cause vegetative implementation lead to increased generative development as the amount of product increases.
2.2. Small Fruit Abscission
The abscission happens 15-20 days later from flowers abscission. The fruit of the female organs are
normal, but fertilization is disorder. Little or no developed embryos and endosperm did not occur. Nutrition
disorders can also cause small fruit abscission. Auxin that flowers and small fruits inclusion abundantly increase
abscission if it transports from abscission zone to other organs (Goldschmidt 1976, Goren and Goldschmidt
1970).
In addition, the seeds of small fruit, especially in the ethylene synthesis in the seed coat are effective in
small fruit abscission (Anonymous 2007a).
2.3. June Abscission
At the figures 1 and 2 before and after June abscission with displays of the species of apple has been
given. June abscission is seen about 1 month later from small fruit abscission. Fruits are the size of hazelnuts.
That's because the very rapid growth and development of embryo and thereupon not to develop endosperm and
embryo (Kaynaş 2004).
Figure 1 Apples before June abscission (15 mm) (Anonymous 2007d)
2
�Figure 2 Apple after June abscission (21 mm) (Anonymous 2007d)
2.4. Pre-Harvest Abscission
The abscission is just before full maturity (Figure 3). In fruit peduncle abscission layer and protective
layer occurs from cells that have thin membranes (Figure 4) and the tissue stays to the abscission.
Figure 3. Pre-Harvest abscission in apples (Anonymous 2007e)
Protective layer Abscission layer
Stem
Fruit peduncle
Figure 4. Abscission layer and protective layer (Anonymous 2007f)
In the formation abscission layer the cell membrane are destroyed especially by cellulose and
polygalactronase enzymes. Works are done in the direction to isolate the genes that synthesis by these enzymes
(Burak 1994).
Destruction of cells in that layer during the abscission is performed by melting. Certain cells in this
layer semi-permeability are reduced, all protoplasts lose, intra of cells fill with and soften.
In parallel with the softening pectin formation increases too in this parts. In this area vascular break off
by mechanical effects and fruit abscission occurs (Kaynaş 2004).
3
�Pre-Harvest fruit abscission is a problem directly affect the grower. What if grower will not give more
importance to the rate of abscission and will be satisfied with fruit trees remaining or before pre-harvest
abscission grower will pick them without get quality and full color. Indeed, in both cases as well as the farmer
also negatively affects the national economy (Burak 1994). However, pre-harvest abscission to be stopped and
harvest has been extended by delayed harvest and fruit will increase marketing opportunities.
The causes of pre-harvest abscission; before harvest hot-cold weather, excessive and late fertilization of
nitrate, drought or high groundwater, fertilization and seed fewness, inadequate of boron and magnesium
deficiencies, inadequate of plant growth regulators, especially abscisic acid is concentrated, auxin deficiency and
is the increased synthesis of ethylene.
Maintenance work to be done regularly is not enough to prevent pre-harvest abscission. To prevent this
abscission should be done applications of synthetic auxin (Kaynaş 2004).
If abscissions are not enough in horticulture by making flowers or fruits thinning vegetative and
generative balance of the tree can be provided. For this purpose, thinning hand, chemical substances (dinitro
compounds), and with growth regulators (auxins) is done (Kaynaş 2004).
If abscission is more the growth realized as vegetative and the productivity will decrease. In this case
the prevention of abscissions, or in a balanced manner to realize such as the plant water balance, nutrition
programs and pruning techniques of cultural actions as appropriate to be done, to increase fertilization the bees
in the garden and the use of growth regulators (auxins and gibberellic acid (GA) is possible (Kaynaş 2004).
3. Factors Play a Role in Flower and Fruit Abscission
•
•
•
•
•
•
In general, flowers and fruit abscissions in fruit trees;
Flaw of fertilization,
Inadequacy of nutrition,
Plant growth regulators for the flaw,
Diseases of and harmful,
Environment and culture conditions have emerged ahead of abnormalities.
3.1. Effects of Fertilization Flaws to Abscission
Fertilization flaw is effective especially in flowers and small fruits abscission. The flowers are not
fertilized and small fruits that not enough fertilized abscise. This situation, abscised fruits in numbers of full and
empty seed can be explained by taking into consideration. For example, small fruit abscission in Masaya apple,
5% full, 80% empty seed and 15% in the dead ovis, small fruits in these rates remaining on brunch respectively,
89%, 1% and 10%. This study clearly shows the impact on fertilization is abscission (Özbek 1977).
3.2. Effect of Nutrition in Abscission
3.2.1. Effect of Water in Abscission
Researches prove between the amount of water with the tree and fruit abscission there is an interest. The
leaves that have a greater osmotic power to take the water from fruits be the cause of fruit abscission. Water flaw
makes fast the fruit abscission in Spring and summer months. Moreover, the low air humidity, rise of
temperature, more lighting and especially dry winds increase transpiration and encourage abscission (Özbek
1977, Coutanceau 1962, Chandler 1957).
On the other hand, the impact of the flaw of the water varies according to physiological status and
maintenance conditions. Fruit abscission in dry regions is more than rainy regions. Excessive water increases
abscission like inadequate water. The trees have an optimal water capacity. Negative impact is seen on top of
this.
Observations have seen in the years of plentiful rainfall till June abscission like dry years abscission
increase. This effect is estimated to be indirect. Excess amounts of water to speed up the development of shoot
hence water causes abscission of the opponent fruit (Burak 1994).
3.2.2. Effect of Mineral Materials in Abscission
In the period following fertilization the formation of seeds is very fast in this period especially nitrogen
and phosphorus needs. Because of this, nitrogenous fertilization is important for the abundant flowering and
despite of good fertilization conditions not fruit connected trees (Özbek 1977, Chandler 1957).
Between vegetation beginning and June abscission stage nitrogen needs very much because of cell
division. About 60% of annual nitrogen consumption of trees has emerged 3-4 months. According to
4
�observations, a very weak given the small amount of nitrogen in growing trees, fruits to reach the harvest can not
provide. On the other hand, the strong improvement in the much amount of nitrogen in fruit trees will fall.
Because the maximum amount to be used for development vegetatively and sufficient nutrient to reduce for fruit
development in the medium (Burak 1994).
3.2.3. Effect of Carbohydrates on Abscission
Carbohydrates are indispensable sources of energy in the formation of new tissue, and for all substance
exchange. In this regard, especially in abscission periods of fruit trees an appropriate metabolic activity should
be provided. Good nutrition by carbohydrates provides better to hold fruits (Özbek 1977).
3.3. Deficiencies in Plant Growth Regulators
3.3.1. Effect of Auxins in Abscission
Auxin, abscission in the region by reducing the sensitivity of cells to ethylene is delayed fruit
abscission.
Fruits begin to develop in the first circuits in excess of the auxin amount that produced by seed and the
rate decrease or increase depending on the development of seed. Flower and fruit of abscissions of less auxin to
occur on the circuit, the circuit in more than has been found to stop (Lepold and Kridemen 1975, Chandler 1957,
Westwood 1978). Implementation of the NAA in the time of early fruit development encourage ethylene
production and allows small fruit abscission (Anonymous 2007g).
3.3.2. Effect of Ethylene on Abscission
Ethylene is naturally generated during growth, development and maturation in plants. It is thought
ethylene coordinates abscission, maturity and death process. Ethylene is produced in any part of the plant which
is as a result of injury, and by reason of interact with other organs increase fruit abscission. When auxin level is
low synthesis of ethylene increases and begin the process of abscission. In the case of the high level auxin
ethylene is ineffective in the abscission. (Anonymous 2007g).
3.3.3. Effect of Abscisic Acid in Abscission
ABA (Abscisic Acid) is a natural plant growth inhibitor and accelerates abscission. When ABA
application is made in sour cherry abscission layer development fasted and cellular changes was found (Zucconi
et al. 1969).
3.4. Effects of Harmfuls and Diseases on Abscission
Diseases (Figure 5) and harmfuls cause abscission in significant amounts in fruit development process.
Figure 5. Because of Phytophthora in citrus abscission (Anonymous 2007h)
5
�3.5. Abnormalities that Emerging in Environment and Culture Conditions
3.5.1. Climate Factors
3.5.1.1. Temperature
In the conditions of appropriate nutrition development of fruit accelerates by increasing temperature.
However, after a certain level (39 oC) development stops. Temperature is also affected root development. Water
absorption speed of the roots increases until 30 - 40 oC and decreases by impairment of the cells over the
degrees. In a very cold region in the spring, between the tree roots and over soil parts a different vegetative
situation may be formed and important abscission can occur. The cold is very intense, especially sensitive to the
causes of death of flowers and small fruit (Westwood, 1978). In this way, can generate very heavy production
losses. Crane (1954) after 2 days of cold damage to the 2,4,5-T Tilton apricot varieties of fruit abscission of
implementation is reduced, damaged most of the fruit was also determined that continued development.
3.5.1.2. Wind
Especially in hot and dry wind as sweating increases significantly. Especially in the arid lands of this
abscission is accelerated (Burak, 1994).
3.5.1.3. Rain
It rains following a drought, will usually result in smaller fruit abscission. Furthermore, especially in the
rains period of full bloom, by prevent fertilization causes abscission (Burak, 1994).
3.5.1.4. Soil Factor
Organic matter status and richness in minerals of soil is effective to nourish the tree. Particularly in the
strong soils determined that the flowers and fruits abscission are much by overdo fertilizing too (Ülkümen,
1973).
4. Measures for Flowers and Fruit Abscissions
4.1. Measures in the Field of Nutrition
Works in this area are intended to provide a balanced nutrition system in the tree. These measures will
be made either directly applications on the tree or by soil can be obtained.
4.1.1. Applications on the Tree
4.1.1.1. Pruning
In the head of this practices there is pruning. By removing a portion of branches as a result reduced the
number of flowers and small fruit, competition is lighted between them and better nutrition is provided. Thus
each element more carbohydrate, nitrogen and hence own growth regulators produce materials.
Time to prune is also important. If done early enough flowers is very good and quite benefits and better
to be feed sexual cells show less tendency to abscission (Burak 1994).
Moreover, pruning air and light status makes the appropriate correcting to suck carbon in all trees.
However, to obtain positive results out of the branch must be chosen well. Violence of pruning must be set
according to species and growth conditions of the tree (Chandler 1957, Westwood 1978).
4.1.1.2. Effect of Rootstock
It is estimated that rootstocks effects indirect in fruit abscission. Direct effect of encouraging or
reduction the growth of exile. The effect of rootstocks is different in strong and dwarf rootstocks.
Developing of roots in dwarf rootstocks less compared to powerful rootstocks and they can benefit less
from the nutrients. Therefore, shoot growth is limited in dwarf rootstocks. But as a natural result of competition
between fruit and shoot decreases. Particularly it is frequently observed that as a result of over-fertilization
shaking is occurred in trees that in powerful soils and grafted powerful rootstocks (Ülkümen 1973). But the
purchase of mineral materials is limited in dwarf rootstocks such as the purchase of water. Therefore, irrigation
is very important in dwarf rootstocks (Burak 1994).
6
�4.1.2. Applications Made Through Soil
The processes are done through soil that flowers and fruits to take control of abscission for the
irrigation, drainage, fertilization and maintenance of soil.
A careful irrigation in all critical periods of continuous and to get into all roots in suitable style can
reduce abscissions significantly (Özbek 1977, Ülkümen 1973, Countanceau 1962).
Usually, in the following period of fertilization, because of fast seed development in fruits, trees needs
especially nitrogen and phosphorus in this period. Therefore, nitrogen fertilization is important in abundant
flowering and even though fertilization conditions are good not kept fruit, and in these cases 3 weeks before
bloom giving of nitrate fertilizer often reduces or prevents abscission (Özbek 1977).
4.2. Measures in the Field of Plant Growth Regulators
In 1939 the first studies on this subject were made by La Rue. La Rue has found the defoliation of the
coleus plant delay using synthetic plant growth regulators. This important invention has been referred to many
researchers on prevention abscission of different organs in different plant species by the synthetic plant growth
regulators (Özbek 1971).
Naphthalene Acetic Acid (NAA) and derivatives are used as intense in pre-harvest abscission. NAA is
applied 1 week ago from harvest; its effect begins after 3-4 days carry on 3-4 weeks. NAA is used 10 ppm in
apples, pears at 5 ppm and 2.5 ppm in Williams’s pears. Fenoxi acetic acid and derivatives, 2,4-D, 2,4,5,-T and
2,4,5-TP have used 2-3 weeks ago from the harvest. The effects start after 5-7 days, and lasts 3 months (Kaynaş
2004).
10 ppm in citrus fruits, 3-5 ppm in Stayman and Winesap apple cultivars and in the pear 3 ppm 2,4-D;
citrus for 5 ppm 2,4,5-T and apple for 2,4,5-TP used. Aminozid (Alar, B9, SADH) is a substance effective of
antigibberellin and inhibitor regress that internal ethylene synthesis. It slows fruit maturity, delays abscission and
extend harvest period. Alar is used in intended amount because there is no negative impact on ability of storing.
In fact the fruit inside watery spots and the fruit scald reduces, the flesh hardness is sustained and the formation
of the top colors is improved. But it is applied in very early term of fruit is smaller. Usually 2-3 weeks before
harvest and in the rate of 0.1-2% (Kaynaş 2004). Auxin applications sometimes give different results at the level
of variety. For example, the 2.4-D application are able to achieve results in Staymen Winesap and Winesap apple
cultivars, there is no any change in Golden Delicious and Mc Intosh apples (Burak 1994).
Serr and Forde (1952), In Peerless almond cultivar, when the first coat is seen to crack 10 ppm 2.4-D
and 20 ppm 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxy propionic acid applied and observed fruit application has been blocked and
due to there is no tree damage in any record ( Burak 1994).
WookJae et al. (2006) determined in Tsugaru apple cultivar to control pre-harvest fruit abscission
applied 125 mg AVG/l (aminoethoxyvinylglycine) and have seen flesh hardness increased, there is no preharvest abscission occurred and harvest delayed 10 days from normal time.
It is understood that the reason of fruit abscission of a group of Italian plums (Prunus salicina L.)
abortion of embryo. Abscission is significantly reduced by the spraying of 5-20 ppm 2,4,5-TP before 2 weeks
from seed hardening (Westwood 1978).
Acknowledgements
Thanks to Selçuk University Coordination of Scientific Research Projects for Financial Support.
References
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&lpg=PA121&ots=D7DY4yU2WB&dq=Adato+and+Gazit+1977&sig=cWEa15lzXAhp1vj0sncP8IN0z1
8#PPA339,M1120-121.s.
Anonymous (2007b). http://hasanbatu63.sitemynet.com/agaclar/id2.htm
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&hl=en&gl=uk&ct=clnk&cd=2
Anonymous (2007d). http://web1.msue.msu.edu/fruit/applgrw.htm
Anonymous (2007e). http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/facts/05-047.htm
Anonymous (2007f).http://openlearn.open.ac.uk/file.php/2314/S204_1_012i.jpg
Anonymous (2007g). http://www.crec.ifas.ufl.edu/faculty/burns/pdf/workshop.pdf
Anonymous (2007h). http://plantpathology.tamu.edu/Texlab/Fruit/citrus/p03.asp?ploc=cpfr.htm
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Chandler, W. H., (1957). Decidious Orchards. Lea and Febiger, Philedelpia, 432s.
Coutanceau, N., (1962). Arboriculture Fruitieres. J. B. Baillers et Fills. Paris, 575s.
Crane, J. C., (1954). Frost resistance and reduction in drop of fruits by 2,4,5-T tri-clorophenoxyacadic acid. Porc
Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci., 64:225-31.
Goldschmidt, E. E., (1976). Endogenous growth substances of citrus tissues. Hortscience 11:95-99.
Goren, R., Goldschmidt, E. E., (1970). Regulative systems in the developing citrus fruits. I. The hormonal
balance in orange fruit tissues. Physiol. Plant. 23:937-947.
Kaynaş, K., (2004). Bahçe Bitkileri Fizyolojisi. Ç.O.M.Ü. Ziraat Fakültesi, 75:57-60
Lepold, A.C., Kridemen, P.T., (1975). Plant Growth and Development McGraw Hill Book Company. New
York, 545s.
Osborne D.J., (1989). Abscission. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 8, 103–129.
Özbek, S., (1977). Genel Meyvecilik. Ç.Ü. Ziraat Fak, Yay. 111 Adana 386s.
Özbek, S., (1971). Hormonlar ve Bağ-Bahçe Ziraati. A.Ü. Ziraat Fak. Yayın no: 48 ANKARA
Serr, E.F., Forde, H.I., (1952). Sprays for control of preharvest drop of Peerless almonds.
Proc.Amer.Soc.Hort.Sci. 60, 193-6.
Ülkümen, L., (1973). Bağ-Bahçe Ziraatı. Atatürk Üniv. Zir. Fak. Yayınları Erzurum, 425 s.
Westwood, M. N., (1978). Temperate-Zone Pomology. W.H. Freeman and Company. San Francisco, 428 s.
WookJae, Y., Kang, I., Kweon H., Kim, M., Kim D., Lee D., Byun J., (2006). Usage potentiality of starch
pattern index at aminoethoxyvinylglycine treatment to prevent preharvest drop in 'Tsugaru' apple fruits.
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Zucconi, F., Stosser, R., Bukovac, M. J., (1969). Promotion of Fruit Abscission with Abscisic Acid
BioScience, 19: 815-817.
8
�
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Flower and Fruit Abscission in Orchards
Author
Author
ERSOY, Nilda
BEKTAŞ, Mustafa
ERSOY, Cumhur
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
A small part of flowers which occurs by blooming and have fruit set stay on tree till harvest in fruit trees. If all flowers transformed to the fruit the tree would not feed these, not to be completed developing and decreased their quality. Hence, both the tree and growers are affected negatively. Researches show that even have good fertilization and growing conditions most of the flowers and fruits abscise. In fruit culture abscission of the flower and fruit is four forms. These ones are; flower, small fruit, June and pre-harvest period abscission. Many factors effect flower and fruit abscission. These ones are; lack of the fertilization, inadequate nutrition, lack of the plant growth regulators, diseases, pests and abnormal environmental factors, respectively. In this research, concerning reasons of flower and fruit abscission and the measures against these situations are evaluated.
Date
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2009-06
Keywords
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Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
Q Science (General)
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3396
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FOLK HERITAGE AS THE SOURCE OF CREATIVITY AND WRITING IN CLAUDE MCKAY’S A L ON G W A Y F R OM H OM E
Author
Author
ALIHODZIC, Demir
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
This paper examines the connections between folk heritage and literary creation, between folk religion and writing. How have writers named or recognized folk tradition in relation to their own writing? At what point does the writer act as a conjurer who calls up and creates literature, who transforms reality through the magical power of words? I argue that Claude McKay not only writes about his folk heritage in legitimizing ways, he writes from it. McKay’s autobiography A Long Way From Home points towards a concept of creativity that grounds itself in a complex imagination that moves between syncretic sources. In his writings, he truly recognizes the potential of folk heritage as a source of writing and innovation. Negritude poets turned to folk religion as evidence of an essential African culture, and the Harlem Renaissance writers conceived of folk culture as an indicator of authentic, albeit unsophisticated, Negro creativity. McKay, however, stands out as a rare writer who portrays folk heritage as a sign of writing itself--a writer who uses folk heritage to undercut a concept of authentic, unitary origins. McKay’s representations of folk religion act as barometers of his reaction to the class biases and political hegemony of the leading writers of the Harlem Renaissance. McKay locates within folk heritage an originary site of black literature. While he does not inscribe folk religion in his autobiography to the same degree as do other Afro-American writers, he does use a secular language of folk religion to depict the creative process of writing. Keywords: Claude McKay, folk heritage, creativity, writing, Afro-American literature.
Date
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2014
Keywords
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Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
PE English
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3449
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FOR MOM AND THE APPLE PIE
Author
Author
Perianova, Irina
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
As an extremely important social interaction food is not about eating only but may be viewed as discourse, because in many ways, just as language, it is socially determined and pre-conditioned. Awareness of the conceptual significance of food as social practice is important for teaching and learning languages because the familiar or unfamiliar foodways and food patterns are an integral part of one’s socio-cultural identity. This is why food description and food-related practices are always included in course books on intercultural and cross-cultural communication and in culture studies curricula. (See, for example, Damen, 1987; Byram, 1989; Levine, 1992; Valdes, 1988) As eating is probably the most important political act, it is not surprising that for better or worse, social or ethnic identity may be imposed on certain foods or withdrawn from them by virtue of political, socio-cultural or simply rhetorical manipulation, because food symbolizes many aspects of everyday culture and is a vehicle for social relations.As a statement of national identity few things may match food in clarity. Even children are aware of the relevance of certain foods as a guide to collective identity. Pupils of a state school visited by Gordon Brown in November 2006 mentioned fish and chips and full English breakfast as traditional British food, a symbol of Britishness. Eateries serving pizzas and other Italian foods are often called a slice of Italy, not to mention numerous names with the word Taste (of Thailand, China, Asia, etc.).Consequently food and meals have always signified and symbolized national identities, politics and collective affiliations (served as personal statements of identity). Hamburgers and hot dogs have become for many an embodiment of America, sauerkraut and frankfurters conjure up the images of Bavaria or Berlin. By the same token, eating guinea pigs in the Central Equadorian Andes is a statement of the Indian identity, comments anthropologist Nicole Bourque. This is why, when Indians say that “some mestizos do not like eating guinea pig”, they are not referring merely to a like or dislike of the flavour and texture of guinea pig meat but rather the association of ethnic identity that accompanies the act of eating some, … prepared in the Indian way (Bourke, 2001: 95-96).
Date
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2014
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PeerReviewed
PE English
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https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/f6ccb4b18ec346117519ac727e6cc8f8.docx
d0718aa794d422554a76a571d3c0da81
https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/cab63a5c79660347969394a5b765daf4.pdf
e7066fae4c532cd04870167163e150d7
PDF Text
Text
Forced Tax Collection: Bank Accounts` Blockage and Its Impact on
Taxpayers` Fiscal Behavior in Albania
Avenir Lleshanaku
Epoka University
Albania
avenirlleshanaku@gmail.com
Abstract: One of the big reforms in Albania regarding Tax issues was the abrogation of Law no.
8560, of 22 December 22, 1999 “For Tax Procedure in the Republic of Albania'' and the
approval of new Law no. 9920, of May 19, 2008 with the same name and the Instruction no.24,
date 02.09.2008 on “Tax Procedure in the Republic of Albania'' which both have the purpose to
reduce informal economy and to improve the business climate in the country.
By way of providing details on some issues, we will focus on the part of how this law determines
the procedure of constringent precautions for a forced tax collection and mainly that of
taxpayers` bank accounts blockage. The paper aims to shed light on if this procedure of
constringent precautions help the purpose of this Law to reduce informal economy and to
improve the business climate in the country or not. As a methodology we are going to give the
evaluation of Albanian appication of the above mentioned Law and Instruction, being in
incompliance with other parts of regulations and blocking orders themselves.
Keywords: tax procedures, bank accounts` blockage, constringent precautions.
131
�131
�
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Forced Tax Collection: Bank Accounts` Blockage and Its Impact on Taxpayers` Fiscal Behavior in Albania
Author
Author
LLESHANAKU, Avenir
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
One of the big reforms in Albania regarding Tax issues was the abrogation of Law no. 8560, of 22 December 22, 1999 “For Tax Procedure in the Republic of Albania'' and the approval of new Law no. 9920, of May 19, 2008 with the same name and the Instruction no.24, date 02.09.2008 on “Tax Procedure in the Republic of Albania'' which both have the purpose to reduce informal economy and to improve the business climate in the country. By way of providing details on some issues, we will focus on the part of how this law determines the procedure of constringent precautions for a forced tax collection and mainly that of taxpayers` bank accounts blockage. The paper aims to shed light on if this procedure of constringent precautions help the purpose of this Law to reduce informal economy and to improve the business climate in the country or not. As a methodology we are going to give the evaluation of Albanian appication of the above mentioned Law and Instruction, being in incompliance with other parts of regulations and blocking orders themselves. Keywords: tax procedures, bank accounts` blockage, constringent precautions.
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International Burch University
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2014-04
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ISSN 2303-4564
H Social Sciences (General)
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https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/958cefa59482de703da966fd6edf2c89.pdf
aa32fff07c792dc48ba2ca62f9798353
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Text
International Conference on Economic and Social Studies, 10-11 May, 2013, Sarajevo
Forecasting Car Demand with Different Methods
Yasin Galip Gençer
Yalova University, Yalova, Turkey
ygalipgencer@yahoo.com
The purpose of this study is to propose a sales forecast model for car dealers.
The scope of the research is a case study on a Hyundai dealer in Yalova city,
Turkey. Actual time series data of 48 months on Onurlu Hyundai car dealer’s
aggregate sales figures between January 2007 and December 2010 were used
as fit-set data. The same data between January 2011 and December 2012 were
used as ex-ante data to calculate the accuracy of the methods. In order to
increase the accuracy of measurement models, the company’s history data
was examined 24 times. In the study, MS Office Excel and Statgraphics
Centurion softwares were used to forecast demand and calculate the forecast
errors with different quantitative methods. Four different time series
forecasting methods were applied to the data he the result of each one was
considered separately for the same period lengths. These were Random Walk,
Simple Exponential Smoothing Method, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method,
and ARIMA Method. Comparison of the models’ predictions to actual sales
data suggested reasonable results to compare the accuracy of all four
methods. Also, the forecasting accuracy was tested separately for each
forecast horizon length from 1 to 12 months to select the best method. For
each particular forecast horizon, the specific figures by different error methods
were calculated. On the other hand, 5 types of error measurement scales were
used to compare the forecasting accuracy of the methods. These error metrics
were Percentage of Errors, MAPE, wMAPE, wMSE, and Theil’s U2 which are
explained in details within the paper. Ultimately, the best results came from
Exponential Smoothing methods, namely from Holt’s Method. For the
company, each period is a different issue and the results of 1-period ahead
forecasts cannot be averaged with 2 and 3 period ahead forecasts. So, in 1
period ahead forecasts, from the five error measurement method, 2 offered
Simple Exponential Smoothing, 2 offered Holt’s Exponential Smoothing and 1
offered ARIMA as the best forecasting method. In 2, 4, 5, 6 period ahead
forecasts, the 3 of 5 error calculation methods offered Holt’s Exponential
Smoothing Method. In 3, 7, 12 period ahead forecasts, Holt’s Exponential
Smoothing Method gave the smallest error figures in four error measurement
methods. In 11 period ahead forecasts, all error measurement methods gave
their minimum by Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method. In 8, 9, 10 period
ahead forecasts, the 4 of 5 error measurement methods had the least scores
by ARIMA model.
Keywords: Forecasting Methods, Sales Forecast, Car Dealership, Turkey.
273
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Forecasting Car Demand with Different Methods
Author
Author
GALIP GENCER, Yasin
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
The purpose of this study is to propose a sales forecast model for car dealers. The scope of the research is a case study on a Hyundai dealer in Yalova city, Turkey. Actual time series data of 48 months on Onurlu Hyundai car dealer’s aggregate sales figures between January 2007 and December 2010 were used as fit-set data. The same data between January 2011 and December 2012 were used as ex-ante data to calculate the accuracy of the methods. In order to increase the accuracy of measurement models, the company’s history data was examined 24 times. In the study, MS Office Excel and Statgraphics Centurion softwares were used to forecast demand and calculate the forecast errors with different quantitative methods. Four different time series forecasting methods were applied to the data he the result of each one was considered separately for the same period lengths. These were Random Walk, Simple Exponential Smoothing Method, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method, and ARIMA Method. Comparison of the models’ predictions to actual sales data suggested reasonable results to compare the accuracy of all four methods. Also, the forecasting accuracy was tested separately for each forecast horizon length from 1 to 12 months to select the best method. For each particular forecast horizon, the specific figures by different error methods were calculated. On the other hand, 5 types of error measurement scales were used to compare the forecasting accuracy of the methods. These error metrics were Percentage of Errors, MAPE, wMAPE, wMSE, and Theil’s U2 which are explained in details within the paper. Ultimately, the best results came from Exponential Smoothing methods, namely from Holt’s Method. For the company, each period is a different issue and the results of 1-period ahead forecasts cannot be averaged with 2 and 3 period ahead forecasts. So, in 1 period ahead forecasts, from the five error measurement method, 2 offered Simple Exponential Smoothing, 2 offered Holt’s Exponential Smoothing and 1 offered ARIMA as the best forecasting method. In 2, 4, 5, 6 period ahead forecasts, the 3 of 5 error calculation methods offered Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method. In 3, 7, 12 period ahead forecasts, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method gave the smallest error figures in four error measurement methods. In 11 period ahead forecasts, all error measurement methods gave their minimum by Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method. In 8, 9, 10 period ahead forecasts, the 4 of 5 error measurement methods had the least scores by ARIMA model. Keywords: Forecasting Methods, Sales Forecast, Car Dealership, Turkey.
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International Burch University
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2013-05-10
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ISSN 2303-4564
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https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/954854b2ccb70e1b6d4336134ac3ca15.pdf
cfe63acf56033a8b8da519e4c073a0f0
PDF Text
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3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Turkish
Airlines,
Labor,
Last
Accessed
on
4
30,
http://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-tr/kurumsal/basin-odasi/THY/is-gucu.
2012,
from
Turkish Airlines, Turkish Airlines’ 2010 Annual Report, Last Accessed on 4 27, 2012, from
www.turkishairlines.com/tr-TR/faaliyet-raporu/2010/pdf/tr-thy2010.pdf
Turkish Airlines, The Activity Report of The Board of Directors For the Period 1 January to
31
December
2011,
Last
Accessed
on
4
28,
2012,
from
http://wwwdownload.thy.com/download/investor_relations/annual_reports/faaliyet_raporu_ar
alik_2011.pdf.
Turkish Airlines, The Number of Passengers, Last Accessed on 4 28, 2012, from
http://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-tr/kurumsal/basin-odasi/THY/yolcu-sayisi.
UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development, Sustainable Aviation, Last Accessed
on 04 20, 2012, from
http://www.desd.org.uk/UserFiles/File/new_articles/pro_body_participation/sustainable_aviat
ion/Sustainable-Aviation-full-document.pdf
UN Development of Economic and Social Affairs, Aviation and Sustainable Development,
Last Accessed on 04 25, 2012, from http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/csd/csd9_bp9.pdf
Upham, P., Maughan, J., Raper, D. And Thomas, C., (2003). Towards Sustainable
Development, Earthscan Publications, 39, 115.
Forecasting Carbon Emission For Turkey: Time Series Analysis
Mehmet Mercan1, Etem Karakaya2
1Hakkari University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science
2Adnan Menderes University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Science
E-mail: mmercan48@gmail.com; mehmetmercan@hakkari.edu.tr, ekarakaya@gmail.com
Abstract
Within the context of sustainable development objectives, reducing greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG) that cause climate change was first discussed and officially negotiated at the 1992 Rio
Conference, which particularly emphasised developed countries to take serious measures.
Then, it was followed by the Kyoto Protocol, which specified national ghg emission reduction
targets for developed countries. With Kyoto Protocol, it was decided for these countries to
reduce global emissions by 5% below 1990 levels compared to 2008-2012 emission levels.
Turkey became a party to the Kyoto Protocol in 2009, yet due to their special circumstances
they did not take any emission reduction commitments.. Negotiations on Post-2012 emission
reduction obligations are still in progress under the UNFCCC umbrella and it is expected to
have emission reduction targets not only by developed countries but also by developing ones.
In this regard, it is important for Turkey to estimate its future ghg emissions, if they have to
take a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) for their strategy. There are
various ghg emission estimations for 2020 and the results indicate different emission levels.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Objective of this study is to estimate ghg emission levels for Turkey for 2020 and afterwards
by using time series and regression analysis. Then, appropriate policy implications are
discussed with the result of these findings.
Keywords : Carbon Emissions, Time Series Analysis, climate change policy,emission
projections
1.INTRODUCTION
Global warming and climate change is the common problem of the whole world and
humanity, concerning many sectors including industry, trade, tourism andagriculture. Acting
in coordination, analyzing the elements leading to the problem is important in solving this
issue. As the development levels, energy resources and population structures of countries are
not homogenous, the possible emission reduction rates due to their strategies to combat global
warming, applicable tools and measures taken, would also be different. Tasking the same
amount of green house gas reductionto a developed country and a developing country would
have negative consequences on the economy of the developing country.
Turkeyhas reached a growth trend since 2002 following the introduction of strong economy
programme, and is since among the group of developing countries. In line with her growing
economy, greenhouse gas emission has increased, which is a source ofglobal warming.In her
combat against global warming, it is important for Turkey to choose the most appropriate
tools, which would not harm the economic growth, or keep the damage at a minimum level.
At this point, the NationalGreenhouse Gas Emission Inventoryis the most important reference.
This inventory needs to be prepared annually by each United Nations Climate Change
Framework Convention (UNCCFC) signing country and submitted to the UNCCFC
secretariat. Thanks to this inventory, countries are able to determine greenhouse gas emission
amounts, sources and sectoral breakdown.
2. Climate Change negotiations and Turkey
A member of OECD since 1961, Turkey has been included to ANNEX-I countries group,
primarily responsible for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and at the same time, to
ANNEX-II countries which shall be providing financial and technical assistance to reduce
emissions from the underdeveloped countries. The economic development level of Turkey is
generally lower than both OECD countries, and the other ANNEX II countries. It is not
rational for Turkeyto have the same emission reduction commitment as economically
developed countries. Therefore, Turkey has not signed the CCFC during the 1992 Rio
Conference, even though she approved its principles, claiming she could not fulfil the
commitments.
According to the Kyoto Protocol, ratified in1997 at theConference of Parties 3 and opened to
signature on 16 March 1998, countries in the ANNEX I group are obliged to reduce their
greenhouse gas emissions to under 5% of the1990 levels, between 2008-2012. This target set
by the Kyoto Protocolis being regarded as one of the most important international steps taken
towards limiting the greenhouse gas emissions.
During the 1997 Conference of Parties3 (COP3) in Kyoto, Turkey demanded for CCFC to be
removed from both Annexes, however, as this demand was not accepted, Turkey did not
become a party to Kyoto Protocol. During the Conference of Parties 6 held in the Hague in
2000, Turkey has stated that she would become a side to CCFC as an ANNEX-I country, on
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condition that she is removed from ANNEX II and provided technical assistance, financial
assistance and capacity development, just like the former socialist states transforming to fee
market economies. As part of the decision taken at the Hague Conference, it was accepted for
Turkey to be removed from ANNEX-II, by the following decision taken atConference of
Parties 7 in Marrakech in 2001: “By recognizing the special conditions of Turkey compared
to the other countries listed in ANNEX-I of the convention, it is decided to keep Turkey in
ANNEX-I but remove form ANNEX-II, by decision number26/CP.7” (UNCCFC, 2001: 2).
Following these developments, the law on Turkey to join Climate Change Framework
Convention was signed on 24 May 2004 and Turkey became the 189th country to become a
side to the Climate Change Framework Convention.
The law on Turkey to join Kyoto Protocolwas adopted on 26 August 2009 and Turkeybecame
a side to the Protocol. Not being a side to UNCCFCon the acception date (1997) of the
Protocol, Turkey was not included to the Protocol ANNEX-B list, which defines the
numerical emission limiting or reduction commitments of ANNEX-I Parties. Therefore, there
is no numerical emission limiting or reduction commitment for Turkey during the first
commitment
period
of
the
Protocol,
covering
the
2008-2012
period.
(http://climate.cob.gov.tr/climate/AnaSayfa/BMIDCS.aspx?sflang=tr Access: 07.12.2011).
3. Global Warming Trend, Projectionsand Scenarios
By looking at the data gathered from all the studies on global warming, it is possible to say
that greenhouse gas emissions within the atmosphere are constantly on the rise. According to
the fourth and latest assessment report published by IPCC in 2007; the temperature of the
earth and oceans are increasing, glaciers are melting environmental transformation is taking
place at a very fast speed. As well as the IPCC reports, studies are being held on climate
change in many different countries. As an example; according to the measurements since
1958 by the Government of the United States of America National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration’s observatory located in Hawaii Island’s Mauna Loa Mountain (3500m) in the
middle of Pacific Ocean, carbon-dioxide accumulation within the atmosphere is rising at an
incredible speed (Figure 1). Other than the Mauna Loa observatory, a number of fixed stations
such as Law Dome, Adalie Land, South Pole and Siple, and aeroplanes for certain heights of
the atmosphere, are being constantly used to measure greenhouse gas, and increases in
greenhouse gas emissions are being scientifically set forth (Özçağ, 2011. s:12).
Figure 1: Development of CO2Density at the Atmosphere
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Source: http://www.licor.com/env/newsline/tag/keeling-curve/, Access: 13.03.2012
The saw shaped graphic at the first part of Figure 1 is being called as the Keeling curve. The
reason for the saw shape is representing the plants absorbing carbon-dioxide from the
atmosphere during the summer months, and giving back during the winter (Madra and Şahin,
2007:30-33).
As it could be viewed from Figure 1, while the CO2 density in the atmosphere between 17501900 increased from 280 ppm (parts per million) to 285 ppm, an increase of just 5ppm, it
increased from 280 ppm to 360 ppm between 1900-2000, an increase of 75 ppm. By
industrialization since the 1900’s, the increase in CO2 density is 15 times the level of the
previous period (http://www.brophy.net/weblog/pivot/entry.php?id=10, Access:27.11.2011).
The annual CO2 emissiondue to fossil fuel consumption was 6.4 GtC (Giga Ton Carbon) in
1990, but during the 2000-2005 period, it increased to 7.2 GtC. The atmospheric density of
Methane, another greenhouse gas, was 715 ppb (parts per billion) in pre-industry period, and
increased to 1732 ppb during the early 1990’s, and in 2005, the figure was 1774 ppb. During
the same period, nitric oxide levels rose from 215 ppb to 317 ppb (IPCC, 2007a: 2-3).
According to Assessment Report 4 (AR4) by IPCC; due to the great increases of the carbondioxide emissions, the average increase in surface temperatures until the year 2100 is
expected to be approximately 3 Co, or somewhere between 2 Coand 4.5 Co. In addition, many
scenarios anticipate that an increase of 0.2 Co/10 years would take place for the next 20 years
(Türkeş, 2007: 50). And it is claimed that sea levels would rise by 0.1 -0.9 metres between
1990 and 2100 (EEA, 2003: 94).
As well as the reports prepared by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to give insight
on the current situation, various scenarios are being prepared on the future of global warming
and on emission reduction. IPCC’s greenhouse gas emission reductionscenarios were included
in its first assessment report in 1990. These initial scenarios, prepared for the 1990-2100
period, were updated with a greater scope and published in 1992. These emissionscenarios
known as “IS92”,deal with atmospheric composition and it’s effects on the climate. The aim
of these studies is; to determine the expected greenhouse gas emission increases until 2100
and the related green house gas rates in the atmosphere; to determine the regional distribution
of changes caused by global warming and rain regimes stemming from increased greenhouse
gasses, by employing these values in various climate models, to determine land and sea
temperatures and to determine the possible consequences of climate change.
Following the initial scenarios, IPCC has accepted to prepare a new emissionscenario in1996.
These new scenarios are named Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In
IPCC’sSRES Report published in2001 and 2007, there are four different scenariofamilies.
The details of these scenarios were explained in the 2001 report, and updated in the 2007
report. These scenarios are A1, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios.
A1 Scenario Group is based on the assumption that the world economy would develop rapidly
by the use of new and more effective technologies, population increase would reach its
highest value at mid-centuryand then decrease. The emphasized areas in thisscenario family
are such issues as the interregional intimacy due to the important decreases in regional
differences on income per person, capacity growth, and increase in cultural and social
relations. A1 Scenario group includes sub scenarios on different developments in energy
systems such as A1FI (fossil intense energy technologies), A1T (non fossil-sourced energy
use) and A1B (a balanced distribution between all sources) (IPCC, 2007a: SPM, s:18).
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A2 Scenario Group is based on an unbalanced and slow economic growth with a rapid
increase in population, a non-homogenous world, with a structure where no special measures
are taken against global warmingand environmental change issues.
B1 Scenario Group, is based on the same assumptions as A1 scenarios but anticipates an
economic growth which does not need over consumption of energy, with an emphasis on
service sector. In this scenario, clean technologies based on more effective use of sources
shall be used.
And finally, B2 Scenario Group; it has an approach where economic, social and
environmental capacitiesare mainly solved at a local scale (IPCC, 2007a: SPM, s:18).
IPCC scenarios’ anticipations on world population and economy are given in the below table:
Table1: Economic Estimates of SRES 2001 Scenarios
Per Capita Income
Population
Gross Product
(Billion People)
(Trillion Dollar)
(Developed/Developing
Countries)
2050
2100
2050
2100
2050
2100
A1
8,70
7,04
164,5
518,8
2,8
1,5
A2
11,29
14,71
111,3
248,5
6,6
4,2
B1
8,7
7,04
135,6
328,4
3,6
1,8
B2
9,8
10,3
75,7
198,7
4
3
Scenario
Source: http: //www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/data/allscen.xls, Data: 27.11.2011.
In the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) prepared by IPCC, carbon-dioxide
andothergreenhouse gasemissions are predicted to be increased at important levels during the
next century. According to the report, global temperature would rise by 0.2 C 0per 10 years,
for the next 20 years (IPCC, 2007a: 12). Temperature increases and sea level changes
projected for the 21st century are given in Table 1.3.
Table 2: SRES 2090-2099 Estimations by 1980-1990 Data
Temperature Change
Scenario
Change in Sea Level
(C 0 )
(mt)
Estimate
Range
B1
1.8
1.1 - 2.9
0.18 - 0.38
A1T
2.4
1.4 - 3.8
0.20 - 0.45
B2
2.4
1.4 - 3.8
0.20 - 0.43
A1B
2.8
1.7 - 4.4
0.21 - 0.48
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A2
3.4
2.0 - 5.4
0.23 - 0.51
A1FI
4.0
2.4 - 6.4
0.26 - 0.59
Source : IPCC, 2007a. SPM, s.13.
According to (B1) scenario where global warming level is the lowest, it is estimated that the
temperature increase in 2090-2099 period would be 1.8 C0when compared to 1980-1990
period. The temperature increase during the period in subject is expected to be in the range of
1.1 C0and 2.9 C0. According to this scenario, it is calculated that the sea level would rise
between 0.18 - 0.38 metres. And according to the A1FI scenario where global warming level
is at its highest, world surface temperature isexpected to rise by 4 C0, while an increase of
0.26 - 0.59 metres is anticipated in the sea level. This has been shown in Figure 1.6.
Figure 2: Change Trend in Sea Levels
Source: IPCC, 2007a. s:409-410.
In the first part of Figure 2, changes in the sea level based on 1980-1999 are given. The period
covering the years 1800 - 1870 is an estimation, while the figures for the period 1870–2000 is
based on apparatus measurements (Tide Gauge). Sea level change values for the 2000–2100
period have been estimated by using the SRES A1B scenario. The second part of the panel
has been acquired by using the annual mean sea level values. Values for 1870 - 1950 period
have been extracted from Church and White (2006)’s work, while post-1950 values have been
extracted from Holgate and Woodworth (2004), and Leuliette et. al. (2004)’s work, and they
are within 90%confidence interval.
According to SRES Scenarios, the increase in atmosphericdensity of carbon-dioxide emission,
increases the acidity levels of the oceans. According to estimates, PH values of the oceans
would decrease during the 21st Century by 0.14 and 0.35. Lowered pH values of the oceans
means an increase in the acidity levels. With an increased acidity level and temperature,
oceans would lose their ability to absorb carbon over time (IPCC, 2007a. SPM, s:14).
4. Worldwide Trend and Reasons for Increase of Greenhouse Gas Causing Climate
Change
Humankind is faced with the enigma of global warming and climate change, by using the
nature to acquire the raw materials for his never ending demands, using fossil sourced energy
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
during production phase, wastes released to the nature during production and consumption
phases, increase in world population, damages occurred to the environment and forests. When
evaluating these situations as a general, global warmingandclimate change issues are human
sourced issues.
In Table3, human sourced distribution of greenhouse gas emissions per country, and the total
amount in a world scale in 2009 have been given. As Table 3 indicates, the top five countries
with highest greenhouse gas emissions are China, America, India, Russia and Japan. These
countries have a total emission of 16,235 Million Tonnes of CO2e, and their share in total
greenhouse gas emission is 51.9%. Turkeyon the other hand, had a CO2e emission of 256
Million Tonnes in2009, and in total greenhouse gas emissions, Turkey’s share is eight per
mille (% 0.8).
Table 3: Countries with High CO2 Emission Levels in 2009 (Mt CO2e)*
1-China
6,831
12-Mexico
399
2-America
5,195
13-Australia
394
3-India
1,585
14-Italy
389
4-Russia
1,532
15-Indonesia
376
5-Japan
1,092
16-South Africa
369
6-Germany
750
17-France
354
7-Iran
533
18-Brazil
337
8-Canada
520
19-Poland
286
9-South Korea
515
20-Spain
283
10-England
465
21-Ukraine
256.39
11- Saudi Arabia
410
22-Turkey
256.31
World Total
28,999
Milyon Ton CO2e
Çin
Amerika
Hindistan
Rusya
Japonya
Almanya
İran
Kanada
Güney Kore
İngiltere
Suudi Arabistan
Meksika
Austuralya
İtalya
Endonezya
Güney Afrika
Fransa
Brezilya
Polonya
İspanya
Ukrayna
Türkiye
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
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Source : IEA, KWES, 2011, s. 48-57. Values in the table have been created by the authors.
*:Including land use, land use differences, and green house gas reductionchanges of the
forestry sector.
Humanity’s will to damage the nature for a wealthier life, as well as the above mentioned
human sourced factors, are leading to global warmingand climate change. Among the human
sourced environmental issues, we may count fossil sourced energy use, industrialization and
urbanization, population increase, land use changes and agriculture-stock breeding activities.
5. Carbon EmissionScenarios
In this part of the study, before starting with thescenarioimplementations, 2011
macroeconomic variables data for Turkey and general and sectoral carbon emission
projections for the 2011-2020 period will be given.
Figure 3: 1990-2009* TotalEmissions (Mt CO2e)
400
349.6 380.0
350
312.3
297.0
300
286.1
278.1
250
366.5
369.7
329.9
302.8
237.5
200
187.0
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1995
1990
150
Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse GasEmission Inventory Reportdata have been
consolidated by the authors.
*: Emission values exclude Lulucf.
As Figure 3 indicates, Turkey’s carbon emission of 187 Mt CO2e in 1990 has increased by
58% and became 297 Mt CO2e in 2000. The rate of increase has slowed down since 2000and
it became 369,7 Mt CO2e in 2009, an increase of 24%. Since 2000’s, with the introduction of
“transition to the strong economy program”, there have been great increases in GNP, export
and import values (for instance; export increase 255%, import 154%andGNP 471% running,
and 34%fixed), but still, emissionincrease was highly reduced in 2000-2009, compared to
1990-2000. We may assume that this decrease was contributed by efficient use of energy, use
of renewable energy, and use of natural gas as fuel type.
In Figure 4, greenhouse gas emissions per sector to be used for the 2009 analysis are given.
These values were prepared by TUİK (2011) for the “NationalGreenhouse
GasEmissionInventory Report”. Electricity production sector (EL) is leading the table with a
93,3 Mt CO2e emission, and makes up 25% of the total emissions. Coal mining (CO) sector is
in second place with 71,1 Mt CO2e emissionand makes up for 19% of the total emissions.
Sectoral transportation (TR) on the other hand has an emission of 45,2 Mt CO2e. When we
look at the top three sectors; electricity production, coal mining and transportation sectors
produce 57% of total emissions. 2002 data indicate that, electricity production, coal mining
and transportation sectors are again occupying the top three places in emissions.
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�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
Figure 4: 2009 and 2002* Secoral Emissions (Mt CO2e)
100
93.3
90
80
2009: 369,6 Mt
CO2e
71.1
70
45.2 46.9
31.7
55.1
7.8 6.9
40
35.0
30 24.5
20
26.525.5
20
10
2002: 286,3 Mt
CO2e
50
50
30
72.3
70
60
60
40
80
14.9
0
36.3
20.5 19.7
6.0 5.3
10
11.5
0
AG CO PG RP EL CE PA IS TR OE
AG CO PG RP EL CE PA IS TR OE
2009 Sectoral Emissions (369,6 Mt Co2e)
Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse Gas EmissionInventory Report data have been
created and classified by the authors per sector. *:Emission values exclude Lulucf.
Considering Turkey’s TUİK (2011) National Greenhouse Gas EmissionInventory
Report,average greenhouse gas increase rates for the 1990-2009 period is 97.64%and annually
5.13%.With the help of 2002 and 2009 sectoral greenhouse gas distribution, calculated from
“National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report” in Figure 4, we may be able to
calculate sectoral greenhouse gas distributionfor 1990. If we apply the 5.13% increase for the
1990-2009 period to the calculated emissionvalues, we may acquire the sectoral and general
greenhouse gas emissions for the period leading up to 2020, which is given in Table 4.
Table 4: Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2e)* of Sectors per Year
AG CO PG
175
RP EL
CE
PA
IS
TR
OE Total
1990 16,0 36,0 3,9
3,5 47,2
13,4 12,9 7,5
22,9 23,7 187,0
1991 16,8 37,8 4,1
3,6 49,6
14,1 13,5 7,9
24,1 25,0 196,6
1992 17,7 39,7 4,3
3,8 52,1
14,8 14,2 8,3
25,2 26,2 206,3
1993 18,5 41,5 4,5
4,0 54,5
15,5 14,9 8,7
26,4 27,4 215,9
1994 19,3 43,4 4,7
4,2 56,9
16,2 15,5 9,1
27,6 28,6 225,5
1995 20,1 45,2 4,9
4,4 59,3
16,9 16,2 9,5
28,8 29,8 235,1
1996 21,0 47,1 5,1
4,5 61,8
17,5 16,9 9,8
29,9 31,1 244,7
1997 21,8 48,9 5,3
4,7 64,2
18,2 17,5 10,2 31,1 32,3 254,3
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
1998 22,6 50,8 5,5
4,9 66,6
18,9 18,2 10,6 32,3 33,5 263,9
1999 23,4 52,6 5,7
5,1 69,1
19,6 18,8 11,0 33,5 34,7 273,5
2000 24,3 54,5 5,9
5,2 71,5
20,3 19,5 11,4 34,7 35,9 283,1
2001 25,1 56,3 6,1
5,4 73,9
21,0 20,2 11,8 35,8 37,2 292,8
2002 25,9 58,1 6,3
5,6 76,3
21,7 20,8 12,2 37,0 38,4 302,4
2003 26,7 60,0 6,5
5,8 78,8
22,4 21,5 12,5 38,2 39,6 312,0
2004 27,5 61,8 6,7
6,0 81,2
23,1 22,2 12,9 39,4 40,8 321,6
2005 28,4 63,7 6,9
6,1 83,6
23,7 22,8 13,3 40,5 42,0 331,2
2006 29,2 65,5 7,1
6,3 86,0
24,4 23,5 13,7 41,7 43,3 340,8
2007 30,0 67,4 7,4
6,5 88,5
25,1 24,1 14,1 42,9 44,5 350,4
2008 30,8 69,2 7,6
6,7 90,9
25,8 24,8 14,5 44,1 45,7 360,0
2009 31,7 71,1 7,8
6,9 93,3
26,5 25,5 14,9 45,2 46,9 369,7
2010 32,5 72,9 8,0
7,0 95,7
27,2 26,1 15,3 46,4 48,1 379,3
2011 33,3 74,8 8,2
7,2 98,2
27,9 26,8 15,6 47,6 49,4 388,9
2012 34,1 76,6 8,4
7,4 100,6 28,6 27,4 16,0 48,8 50,6 398,5
2013 35,0 78,5 8,6
7,6 103,0 29,3 28,1 16,4 49,9 51,8 408,1
2014 35,8 80,3 8,8
7,7 105,4 29,9 28,8 16,8 51,1 53,0 417,7
2015 36,6 82,2 9,0
7,9 107,9 30,6 29,4 17,2 52,3 54,2 427,3
2016 37,4 84,0 9,2
8,1 110,3 31,3 30,1 17,6 53,5 55,5 436,9
2017 38,3 85,9 9,4
8,3 112,7 32,0 30,8 18,0 54,6 56,7 446,5
2018 39,1 87,7 9,6
8,5 115,2 32,7 31,4 18,3 55,8 57,9 456,2
2019 39,9 89,6 9,8
8,6 117,6 33,4 32,1 18,7 57,0 59,1 465,8
2020 40,7 91,4 10,0 8,8 120,0 34,1 32,7 19,1 58,2 60,3 475,4
Source: TUİK (2011) From the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data,
sectoral emissions have been calculated by the authors, and simulation has been applied.*:
Emission values exclude Lulucf.
176
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
As Table 4 indicates, 2009 emission rate was 369,7 Mt CO2e, and according to the 1990-2009
increase scenario of 5.13% (As of 2012, the latest emissionwas given for 2009), this emission
rate is anticipated to become 475,4 Mt CO2e in 2020. This is much lower than 604 Mt CO2e,
foreseen by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (Ministry of Forestry and Hydraulic
Works) by using the MAED/ENPEP model, however, it is in accordance with the 421 Mt
CO2e value, foreseen by the European Commission using PRIMES model. Considering that
the MAED/ENPEP model does not reflect the energy assumptions reality and that the model
results are different than the actual values, it would be more realistic to use European
Commission’s PRIMES model.
Figure 5: Sektoral and General Emission Forecasts* for the 1990-2009 Period, According to
5.13%EmissionIncrease (Mt CO2e)
500.0
450.0
400.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
150.0
Source: TUİK (2011) National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data have been
consolidated by the authors. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf.
The increase in greenhouse gas is slower in 2000-2009 when compared to the 1990-2000
period. In 2000-2009 period, greenhouse gasincrease rate was 24,45%, while annual increase
rate was 2,71%’dir. If we were to estimate 2020 emissions based on annual increase rates of
2,71%, we reach the findings given in Table 7.3. As Table 5 indicates, 2009 emission rate was
369,7 Mt CO2e, and by using the 2000-2009 period’s 2.71% increase scenario, this emission
value would reach 458,4 Mt CO2e by 2020.
Table 5: Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2e)* of Sectors per Year
AG CO PG RP EL
177
CE
PA
IS
TR
OE
Toplam
2000 25,4 57,1 6,2 5,5 75,0
21,3 20,5 11,9 36,3 37,7 297,0
2001 26,1 58,7 6,4 5,7 77,0
21,9 21,0 12,3 37,3 38,7 305,1
2002 26,8 60,2 6,6 5,8 79,1
22,4 21,6 12,6 38,3 39,7 313,2
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
2003 27,5 61,8 6,7 6,0 81,1
23,0 22,1 12,9 39,3 40,8 321,2
2004 28,2 63,3 6,9 6,1 83,1
23,6 22,7 13,2 40,3 41,8 329,3
2005 28,9 64,9 7,1 6,3 85,2
24,2 23,2 13,6 41,3 42,8 337,4
2006 29,6 66,4 7,2 6,4 87,2
24,8 23,8 13,9 42,3 43,8 345,4
2007 30,3 68,0 7,4 6,6 89,2
25,3 24,4 14,2 43,3 44,9 353,5
2008 31,0 69,5 7,6 6,7 91,3
25,9 24,9 14,5 44,2 45,9 361,6
2009 31,7 71,1 7,8 6,9 93,3
26,5 25,5 14,9 45,2 46,9 369,7
2010 32,4 72,6 7,9 7,0 95,4
27,1 26,0 15,2 46,2 47,9 377,7
2011 33,0 74,2 8,1 7,1 97,4
27,7 26,6 15,5 47,2 49,0 385,8
2012 33,7 75,7 8,3 7,3 99,4
28,2 27,1 15,8 48,2 50,0 393,9
2013 34,4 77,3 8,4 7,4 101,5 28,8 27,7 16,2 49,2 51,0 401,9
2014 35,1 78,8 8,6 7,6 103,5 29,4 28,2 16,5 50,2 52,0 410,0
2015 35,8 80,4 8,8 7,7 105,5 30,0 28,8 16,8 51,2 53,1 418,1
2016 36,5 82,0 8,9 7,9 107,6 30,5 29,4 17,1 52,2 54,1 426,2
2017 37,2 83,5 9,1 8,0 109,6 31,1 29,9 17,5 53,1 55,1 434,2
2018 37,9 85,1 9,3 8,2 111,7 31,7 30,5 17,8 54,1 56,1 442,3
2019 38,6 86,6 9,4 8,3 113,7 32,3 31,0 18,1 55,1 57,2 450,4
2020 39,3 88,2 9,6 8,5 115,7 32,9 31,6 18,4 56,1 58,2 458,4
Source: TUİK (2011) From the National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory Report data,
sectoral emissions have been calculated by the authors, and simulation has been applied.*:
Emission values exclude Lulucf.
Figure 6: Emission Forecasts for the 1990-2009 Period According to 5.13% EmissionIncrease
* (Mt CO2e)
178
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
500.0
450.0
400.0
350.0
300.0
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
250.0
Source: TUİK (2011) NationalGreenhouse Gas EmissionInventory Report data have been
consolidated by the authors. *: Emission values exclude Lulucf.
6. Carbon Emission Projections
In this part of the study, greenhouse gasemission projections would be made by
mathematical models. By using the 1990-2009 period greenhouse gas amounts published by
TUİK, linear, parabolic, cubic andexponential forecasts have been made and given in Table6.
It is clearly seen that different methods produce different emissionvalues.
Table 6: Greenhouse GasEmission Projections (Mt CO2e)*
Carbon Emission Projections
Year
Linear Model
Parabolic Model
Exponential Model
2010
382,65
386,54
398,16
2011
392,32
397,30
412,38
2012
401,98
408,17
427,11
2013
411,64
419,14
442,37
2014
421,31
430,20
458,17
2015
430,97
441,37
474,54
2016
440,63
452,64
491,49
2017
450,29
464,00
509,05
2018
459,96
475,47
527,24
2019
469,62
487,04
546,07
2020
479,28
498,71
565,58
2021
488,95
510,48
585,78
179
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
2022
498,61
522,34
606,71
2023
508,27
534,31
628,38
2024
517,94
546,38
650,83
2025
527,60
558,55
674,08
2026
537,26
570,82
698,16
2027
546,93
583,19
723,10
2028
556,59
595,66
748,93
2029
566,25
608,23
775,69
2030
575,92
620,90
803,40
Estimating Equations:
LinearEstimating Equation: y = 9,6632x + 179,73
R² = 0,96
ParabolicEstimating Equation: y = 0,0501x2 + 8,612x + 183,59
R² = 0,96
CubicEstimating Equation: y = 0,0238x3 - 0,6996x2 + 15,064x +
170,94
R² = 0,96
ExponentialEstimating Equation: y = 190,52e0,0351x
R² = 0,96
Not:Mathematica and Excel Programs have been used for the estimations made by 1990-2009
data.
*: Emission values exclude Lulucf.
As Table 6 indicates, according to the results reached by the help of linearequation; Turkey’s
greenhouse gas emission would be 430MtCO2e in 2015, 479 MtCO2e in 2020 and575
MtCO2e in2030. According to the results reached by the help of parabolicequation;
Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be 441MtCO2e in 2015, 498 MtCO2e in 2020
and620 MtCO2e in 2030. And according to the findings reached by the help of exponential
equation; Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be474MtCO2e in 2020, 565MtCO2e in
2015 and 803 MtCO2e in 2030.
The acquired findings are much less than the 604 Mt CO2e value forecast by the Ministry of
Environment and Forestry (Ministry of Forestry and Hydraulic Works) by using the
MAED/ENPEP model, however, they are in accordance with the 421 Mt CO2e value,
foreseen by the European Commission using PRIMES model. Considering that the
MAED/ENPEP model does not reflect the energy assumptions reality and that the model
results are different than the actual values, it would be more realistic to use European
Commission’s PRIMES model.
7. Result and Discussion
180
�3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo
There is no emission reduction commitment for the first Kyoto period covering the
1998-2012 period for Turkey, who is on the full membership process for European Union.
However, Turkey is expected to be committed for the Post-Kyoto period covering post-2012.
Considering that emission reductions would have economic costs, anticipation of emission
trend, the level of commitment and choosing the best policy for emission reduction would be
highly important for the decision makers.
In our study, the anticipated emission trend for Turkeyhas been given by the help of
different mathematical models. According to the findings reached by the help of linear
equation; Turkey’sgreenhouse gasemission would be, 430MtCO2e in 2015, 479 MtCO2e in
2020 and 575 MtCO2e in 2030. This result is in line with the 421 Mt CO2e value for 2020,
forecasted by the European Commission using the PRIMES model. Even though different
methods produce different results, it is thought that the results acquired by the linear equation
are more consistent.
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181
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Title
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Forecasting Carbon Emission For Turkey: Time Series Analysis
Author
Author
Mehmet , Mercan
Abstract
A summary of the resource.
Within the context of sustainable development objectives, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that cause climate change was first discussed and officially negotiated at the 1992 Rio Conference, which particularly emphasised developed countries to take serious measures. Then, it was followed by the Kyoto Protocol, which specified national ghg emission reduction targets for developed countries. With Kyoto Protocol, it was decided for these countries to reduce global emissions by 5% below 1990 levels compared to 2008-2012 emission levels. Turkey became a party to the Kyoto Protocol in 2009, yet due to their special circumstances they did not take any emission reduction commitments.. Negotiations on Post-2012 emission reduction obligations are still in progress under the UNFCCC umbrella and it is expected to have emission reduction targets not only by developed countries but also by developing ones. In this regard, it is important for Turkey to estimate its future ghg emissions, if they have to take a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) for their strategy. There are various ghg emission estimations for 2020 and the results indicate different emission levels.Objective of this study is to estimate ghg emission levels for Turkey for 2020 and afterwards by using time series and regression analysis. Then, appropriate policy implications are discussed with the result of these findings. Keywords : Carbon Emissions, Time Series Analysis, climate change policy,emission projections
Date
A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource
2012-05-31
Keywords
Keywords.
Conference or Workshop Item
PeerReviewed
S Agriculture (General)