110 10 3494 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/9e945da63ad6d91241b4a3d25c67e083.docx a51ee7bcb1e539f15c626817f5f28c95 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/51add2b702cbd783b4dbc6477d5a8627.pdf 19929d1b784a44b69a26793949e0c894 PDF Text Text � ��� �� Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3147 Title A name given to the resource Znanje o Evropskoj uniji - uloga bosanskohercegovačkih medija u procesu euroatlantskih integracija Author Author ŠLJIVA GRBO, Amila Abstract A summary of the resource. Najaktualnija tema danas u Bosni i Hercegovini jeste demokratizacija kao sastavnica širokog spektra tranzicije društva i njegovog priključivanja Evropskoj uniji. Februarski događaji 2014. godine upozorili su i ukazali na zastoj u procesu tranzicije, čije su posljedice kako ekonomske, tako i političke svjedočanstvo duboke društvene krize koja se manifestira, prije svega, u činjenici ugroženosti egzistencijalnih i drugih ljudskih prava širokih slojeva građana. Kriza potvrđuje da su i mediji u sporom procesu izgradnje sopstvene neovisnosti i profesionalnog djelovanja (dakle tranzicija ka slobodnim medijima) doprinijeli produbljivanju krize time što su nedovoljno širili znanje o Evropskoj uniji i njenim pravilima čijom se implementacijom postupno osiguravaju pripreme za pristup najprije pregovorima, a potom i protokolu pristupanja u njeno članstvo. Budući da je obim aktivnosti, koje svojim standardima Evropa nalaže potencijalnim kandidatima kao i dinamika priprema za pregovore odložena na duži rok otvoren je prostor deformacijama u sferi vlasti (na svim nivoima). Tako je etno-nacionalizam i dalje najvažniji ideološki argument u kreiranju politike. Stoga ovu temu valja promišljati upravo u njenom kompleksnom značenju uz akcentiranje upravo uloge medija u prevladavanju krize u cilju povratka bosanskohercegovačkog društva na put demokratizacije i priprema za evroatlantske integracije. Zato će predmet našeg izlaganja biti vezan upravo za tu urgentnu potrebu akceptiranja obaveza i prioriteta u procesu dalje orijentacije Bosne i Hercegovine ka Evropskoj uniji. Preciznije, valja podsjetiti na elementarne obaveze, koje je u svom odnosu prema Bosni i Hercegovini i drugim potencijalnim članicama naložila Evropska unija svojim dokumentima, odlukama i uputstvima i to uporediti sa opsegom izvršenih obaveza, kako bi se upozorilo na potrebu osposobljavanja samih medija (kako javnih, tako i komercijalnih) na nužni minimum obaveza u procesu podrške, prije svega, vrijednostima razvijenih evropskih društava i izgradnji političke kulture i svijesti o važnosti strategije razvoja koje podržava demokratska Evropa. U tu svrhu nužno je ocijeniti da su aktuelni protesti socijalne naravi (uz sve propuste koji su se 7. februara dogodili i koji se moraju kritizirati i odbaciti) novo iskustvo, koje može potaknuti dalju tranziciju medija i njihovo uključenje u kampanju za osiguranje elementarnih uvjeta za pristup Evropskoj uniji. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Pravni fakultet Univerziteta u Bihaću i Centar za društvena istraživanja Internacionalnog Burč univerziteta Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed K Law (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/be6b68840048a24d30989ddff16e86e7.pdf ab40c3f91680f1a7b0653e826114bbec PDF Text Text �������������� https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/7e4df4e8e5c856858e935b3a6ef9a1a3.docx f6f94b9d94f4d58c8e0a88c62797a763 Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3103 Title A name given to the resource Međunarodni i regionalni pravni okvir za sprječavanje radnog iskorištavanja radnika migranata Author Author ŠPADINA, Helga Abstract A summary of the resource. U kontekstu kontinuiranog povećanja radnih migracija i paralelnog razvoja međunarodnog i regionalnog migracijskog prava, posebna se pažnja posvećuje pravnoj zaštiti radnika migranata koji su zbog prirode svog posla i/ili boravišnog statusa u državi zaposlenja izloženi povećanoj mogućnosti uskraćivanja radnih i temeljnih ljudskih prava. Brojni izvještaji međunarodnih i regionalnih organizacija za zaštitu ljudskih prava nazivaju iskorištavanje rada migranata „suvremenim oblicima ropstva.“ Stoga je Vijeće Europe usvojilo čitav niz pravnih instrumenata kojima je svrha iskorjenjivanje ropskog rada migranata. I Europski sud za ljudska prava vrlo jasno postavlja standarde zabrane radnog i drugog iskorištavanja, neovisno o boravišnom statusu migranata. Usvajanje najnovijih instrumenata zajedničke europske migracijske politike ukazuje da EU poduzima određene korake u smjeru poboljšanja pravne zaštite sezonskih radnika migranata. U radu se analiza međunarodni i regionalni pravni okvir i sudska praksa Europskog suda za ljudska prava u području sprječavanja suvremenih oblika ropskog rada radnika migranata. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Pravni fakultet Univerziteta u Bihaću i Centar za društvena istraživanja Internacionalnog Burč univerziteta Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed K Law (General) Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3359 Title A name given to the resource DERIVATIVE AND STYLISTIC FEATURES OF VERBS OF WORDS OF PERSIAN ORIGIN IN THE BOSNIAN LANGUAGE Author Author Šehović, Amela Haverić, Đenita Abstract A summary of the resource. The Bosnian language contains a number of words of Persian origin, mainly received through Turkish as the relay language during the Ottoman rule in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Today, these words are mainly part of the passive lexis of modern Bosnian, mainly caused by the disappearance of notions and phenomena they denote, but also caused by their replacement with other forms. However, quite a number of these lexemes appear in conversational Bosnian, where they are used for the purpose of greater expressive force. The most frequent of them are nouns, followed by adjectives and verbs – parts of speech that carry the largest amount of information. This paper will focus on verbs derived from words of Persian origin, usually nouns. This is no surprise in light of the fact that in terms of loanwords, nouns are always the most numerous. This can be explained by the function of nouns, to name phenomena and objects, both the ones that do not have adequate local equivalents, and the ones that do have local equivalents, but those equivalents are for some reason less prestigious and tend to be replaced with a borrowed noun. Since Persian loanwords are no longer entering our language, under the influence of different factors, the corpus of this research comprises dictionaries of modern Bosnian language. Namely, we thought that such lexicographical sources present a reliable source for a derivation and style-based analysis of verbs in Bosnian. However, in light of the fact that the root of such verbs is of Persian origin, in order to determine their origin and semantics, we consulted dictionaries of the Persian language. Still they were used as an auxiliary tool in this derivation and stylefocused analysis of verbs in the lexical stock of the Bosnian language. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3486 Title A name given to the resource LEXICAL AVAILABILITY AND L2 VOCABULARY ACQUISITION Author Author Šifrar Kalan, Marjana Abstract A summary of the resource. Vocabulary research has followed a different path in English and in Spanish applied linguistics. Spanish applied linguistics has paid more attention to available lexicons of speakers than to word frequency. The measure of lexical availability combines the frequency at which a word is produced as a member of a semantic category (e.g. dog in category Animals) and the position in the list of associations provided by a group of individuals. It focuses on the words retrieved by speakers in response prompts (word stimulus) related to daily situations. This paper intends to present some of the aspects of lexical availability research which are interesting for L2 vocabulary acquisition. It attempts to show the potential of lexical availability research as an alternate approach for vocabulary planning (the use of L1 lexical availability measures to select the teaching vocabulary for L2) as well as the study of some psycholinguistic aspects of vocabulary acquisition, such as the organization of learners' mental lexicons, the similarities and the differences between response patterns, the kind of semantic associations that learners activate in response to prompts (semantic categories), the consideration of the most available words obtained by lexical availability research as semantic prototypes. Likewise, the study of learners' lexical availability can uncover sociolinguistic and cultural issues. Furthermore this paper wishes to inspire language researchers other than Spanish to apply this methodology to different languages. All these aspects are hereby presented on the basis of the Slovene learners' available lexicons in Spanish as L2 (N=200) (Šifrar Kalan, 2009; 2012; 2014b) and English as L2 (N=20) (Šifrar Kalan, 2014a). Keywords: foreign languages, vocabulary acquisition, lexical availability, word associations Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3439 Title A name given to the resource METAPHORS WE RULE BY: THE COGNITIVE DIMENSION OF THE POLITICAL LANGUAGE OF THE USA AND BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Author Author Škrgić, Ilhana Abstract A summary of the resource. At the root of the American liberal-conservative political fracture lies language – particularly, figurative language with its richness of metaphorical expressions which strongly mark the global political communication. From Aristotle’s playing with the rhetoric, through Nietzsche’s definition of truth as “a mobile army of metaphors”, all the way to the Conceptual Metaphor Theory made popular by Lakoff and Johnson, metaphor has always been discovered as a powerful linguistic tool in the hands of the political elite. In the modern political language of the United States one can distinguish very interesting and effective metaphorical models, such as POLITICS IS WAR, POLITICS IS A SHOW, NATION IS A LEADER, etc. Mental concepts which are part of a set of metaphorical models based on antonymy, and which are hidden behind two opposing approaches to morality (the “Strict Father” and “Nurturant Parent” models) reveal structural differences in conceptual metaphors used by American liberals and conservatives for decades. As the first total implementation of cognitive science to politics, “Lakoffian” research of public discourse connects topics such as different and opposing moral systems, discourse issues, metaphors of intimidation, coherent ideologies and their non-existence, etc. By masterfully replacing one conceptual domain with another, skillful speakers manage to form individual concepts of the voting body in their favor, gaining with it full support of the citizen majority and consequent political supremacy. In layman’s terms, conceptual metaphors help them shape the truth in the mind of the public according to the desired model. This is especially evident in the duality of American politics at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. However, where in the domain of metaphor usage do the political currents in Bosnia and Herzegovina stand and what kind of mental concepts are behind their everyday interaction? By following the cognitive research of the American politics, this research tries to implement its discoveries on the modern political discourse in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3464 Title A name given to the resource COMPARISON OF MEDIEVAL AND MODERN METAPHORICAL CONCEPTS Author Author Štrmelj, Lidija Abstract A summary of the resource. This article aims to study emotion metaphors found in selected Chaucer’s Canterbury Tales and compare them with conventional modern metaphors from current dictionaries and other sources, in order to find out whether medieval emotional metaphorical concepts have survived up to the present-day, and if yes, what changes can be perceived in them. The study is based on the cognitive theory of metaphor, as developed by Lakoff and Johnson in “Metaphors We Live By”. Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed PE English https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/37856f4f83b9462fa387ce1711501d9f.docx ab83c464ef64c2cc8905fbcc96592a10 https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/27266712962eed55c384ddd2c7b8db0c.pdf 5d1fd6c7d50fee4c944c0b2970e0894f PDF Text Text ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ мр Стеван Дакић Еврппски дефендплпгија центар Баоа Лука мр Предраг Пбренпвић Еврппски дефендплпгија центар Баоа Лука Апстракт: У раду се гпвпри п ппследицама дпнијетих пдлука механизама пдлучиваоа и функципнисаоа пргана Еврппске Уније а ппсебнп п мпгућим штетним ппследицама на Бпсну и Херцегпвину пп чланству у пву регипналну прганизацију Овп је један пд ппкушаја надам се не и безуспјешан кап мнпги раније приказиваоа и ствараоа слике п мпгућим превасхпднп штетним ппследицама пп БиХ дпнијетих пдлука и механизмима пдлучиваоа у ЕУ у кпнтексту механизама пдлучиваоа у Бпсни и Херцегпвини а превасхпднп пне кпји би били у супрптнпсти са интересима кпнститутивних нарпда у БиХ Оснпвнп је питаое да ли ћемп мпћи пдгпвприти слпженим захтјевима и механизмима пдлучиваоа у ЕУ пбзирпм на јпш слпженије у БиХ Кључне ријечи: Еврппска Унија, механизми пдлучиваоа, функципнисаое ЕУ �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ УВПД У дпсадащопј теприји и пракси када се гпвпри п Еврппскпј Унији ЕУ увјек се гпвпри у суперлативу пднпснп п ппзитивним импликацијама кпје се дещавају када једна држава ппстане пунпправна шланица Затп кап пплазну хипптезу за израду пвпг рада узели смп већ усвпјене пдлуке те механизме пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа ЕУ за кпје сматрамп да мпгу имати щтетан ппшетни утицај на већи дип друщтвенпг живпта у БиХ те да ће бити маргинализпван утицај БиХ кап мале земље на дпнпщеое пдлука и функципнисаое ЕУ щтп указује на пптребу пзбиљних предприпрема и припрема БиХ за перипд будућег шланства у ЕУ Ппсебна пажоа у пвпм раду ће бити усмјерена према мпгућим негативним ппследицама у прпцесу пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа кпје дпнпси шланствп у ЕУ са псвртпм на щире ппследице тих негативнпсти Другим ријешима у кпнтексту шланства БиХ у ЕУ пвај рад ће ппнудити приказ дијела прпцедура дпнпщеоа пдлука на нивпу ЕУ те примарнп мпгуће негативнпсти кпје би се мпгле пдразити на БиХ услед неприпремљенпсти нащих унутращоих слабпсти и једнпставнп мпгућнпсти да не будемп мпгли испуоавати преузете пбавезе збпг слпженпсти механизама пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа у БиХ Механизми пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа ЕУ су пд ппсебнпг знашаја за БиХ из разлпга и пптребе истраживаоа пвпг прпблема какп би се предупредиле или смаоиле мпгуће щтетне ппследице пунпправнпг шланства БиХ у ЕУ јер ппстпји бпјазан да ли ћемп уппщте мпћи пдгпвприти пвим пбавезама а за нас и изазпвима пбзирпм да и сами у БиХ имамп изузетнп пунп прпблема кпд дпнпщеоа пдлука пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа билп закпнпдавне или пргана изврщне и судске власти Акп буде дпбрп лакп ће се нарпди БиХ навићи на оега али акп укупнп стаое буде гпре пд садащоег пнда ће знашити да је академска заједница сапдгпвпрна са пплитишким елитама затп щтп није имала превизију и визију нащег дпбра или зла у ЕУ Пдлучиваое у Савјету министара ЕУ према актуелнпм Угпвпру из Лисабпна Анализирајући прпцесе дпнпщеоа пдлука на нивп ЕУ закљушујемп да се већина пдлука дпнпси ппступкпм сапдлушиваоа између Еврппскпг парламента и Савјета министара Еврппске уније у кпјима ће БиХ када ппстане шланица имати �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић свпје представнике Такпђе ппсебнп знашајну улпгу пкп предлагаоа и правних иницијатива има Кпмисија ЕУ кпја ппстпји кап изврщни прган да би независнп заступала ЕУ Кпмисија ЕУ прпвпди пплитике ЕУ пбезбјеђује изврщеое бучета управља прпграмима ЕУ представља ЕУ у међунарпдним пднпсима и кпнтрплище примјену угпвпра на прпписан нашин Савјет министара Еврппске уније је дп сада бип централни закпнпдавни прган у вепма слпженпм прпцесу дпнпщеоа пдлука у пквиру пве регипналне прганизације сада већ правнпг лица скпрп супердржаве кпнфедералнп федералнпг типа Прпцес пдлушиваоа на нивпу ЕУ се развип пд једнпгласнпг пдлушиваоа кпји је са интегративним прпцесима унутар ЕУ у већини слушајева замијеоен пдлушиваоем квалификпванпм већинпм енергетика пплитика азила имиграције правпсудна сарадоа у грађанским стварима култура и др Истпвременп пптребна квалификпвана већина за дпнпщеое већине пдлука се Угпвпрпм из Лисабпна приближила прпстпј већини щтп представља сущтинску прпмјену у нашину пдлушиваоа у ЕУ Наиме Угпвпр из Лисабпна има сущтинске прпмјене у нашину гласаоа у Савету министара ЕУ у већем брпју пбласти у кпјима се пдлушује или ће се пдлушивати већински пп ппщтем правилу да ће Савјет министара ЕУ пдлушивати квалификпванпм већинпм псим укпликп Угпвпрпм није прпписанп другашије кап нпр у пбластима ппреза и пдбране гдје се пдлуке и даље дпнпсе једнпгласнп Ппред ппвећаоа брпја пбласти у кпјима се пдлушује већински знашајнп се прпмијенила и квалификпвана већина неппхпдна за дпнпщеое пдлука јер Угпвпрпм се прпписује да ће квалификпвана већина бити дефинисана кап најмаое држава шланица Савјета министара ЕУ укљушујући бар пд оих и државе шланице кпје имају бар пппулације Уније Када анализирамп видимп да се квалификпвана већина пд шланпва Савјета приближила прпстпј већини с тим да ппстпје два услпва за примјену такве већине а први је да пдлуку мпрају ппдржати државе кпје имају бар пппулације ЕУ свих држава шланица и оиме се щтите интереси великих држава и пнемпгућују кпалиције малих држава дпк се са друге стране интереси малих држава щтите услпвпм да се неће сматрати да је квалификпвана већина пстварена укпликп бар шетири државе не буду прптив пдређене пдлуке шиме се пнемпгућава великим државама да блпкирају пдређену пдлуку без пбзира щтп имају пппулације ЕУ Прптпкпл уз кпнсплидпвану верзију Угпвпра п Еврппскпј унији и Угпвпра п функципнисаоу Еврппске уније предвиђа да када предлагаш пдлука Савјету министара ЕУ није Кпмисија или Виспки представник ЕУ квалификпвану већину шини држава шланица кпје представљају најмаое станпвнищтва ЕУ �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ Такпђе Прптпкпл предвиђа и мпгућнпст мијеоаоа пдредби п гласаоу Савјета и тп кпнсензуспм држава шланица шиме је дп гпдине а мпжда и дп гпдине пстављена мпгућнпст да се државе шланице ЕУ дпгпвпре да ли пписанп пдлушиваое у Савету министара ЕУ најбпље пдгпвара оихпвим интересима и да ли је мпгуће дпгпвприти ефикаснији мпдел Гасми Узимајући у пбзир све прпблеме кпји се мпгу јавити кпд реализације дпнесених пдлука у пракси се настпји да већина пдлука буде дпнесена кпнсензуспм или кпмпрпмиспм јер се настпје избјећи ситуације у кпјима би већина држава маоини наметала рјещеоа щтп би дугпрпшнп мпглп дпвести дп несугласица и незадпвпљства унутар ЕУ па и дезинтегративних прпцеса Угпвпр из Лисабпна ппвећава утицај Парламента и Кпмисије у пднпсу на Савета министара ЕУ а требап би ппвећати ефикаснпсти система пдлушиваоа у пквиру Еврппске уније дпнијети знашајнију улпгу еврппских странака и група грађана наспрам бирпкратије итд али је тп све далекп пд мпгућнпсти кпје пружа неппсредна демпкратија Дпбре стране чланства у ЕУ Брпјна истраживаоа јавнпг моеоа у БиХ гпвпре да би пвпг мпмента пгрпмна већина грађана БиХ дакле у пба ентитета гласала за улазак БиХ у Еврппску Унију Кап мпгућу ппзитивну страну евентуалнпг шланства БиХ у ЕУ грађани најшещће ппмиоу заједнишкп еврппскп тржищте рада на кпјем би радници из БиХ мпгли кпнкурисати пбзирпм да се гпдищое прпсјешнп птвара милипна нпвих радних мјеста иакп су свјесни да је квалификаципна структура нащих радника прилишнп лпща и неприлагпђена за еврппскп тржищте радне снаге Кап друга ппзитивна ствар мпже се рећи да би БиХ дпбијала гпдищоу квпту средстава из ЕУ фпндпва а са друге стране би била привлашнија страним улагашима јер уласкпм у ЕУ кап равнпправна шланица БиХ тржищте би ппсталп јпщ привлашније сигурније и приступашније БиХ би пп екпнпмским ппказатељима била најсирпмащнија држава ЕУ али са друге стране распплаже људским ресурсима прпстпрпм и прирпдним бпгатствима малим прпстпрним изласкпм на Јадранскп мпре има ппвпљан геппплитишки пплпжај и најкраћи кппнени пут земаља централне и дијела истпшне Еврппе дп Јадранскпг мпра те нивп за сада Дпступнп на �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић непрпцијеоених прирпдних бпгатства и енергетских пптенцијала кпји су дпбра претппставка за ствараое бпгатства БиХ грађана Да би се искпристили пви пптенцијали пптребан је капитал савремена технплпгија кпју ппсједују земље ЕУ али се пд БиХ тражи да има савременп пбразпван меначмент кпји би крпз прганизацију БиХ друщтва искпристип једнпм пружену истпријску щансу ЕУ је усппстављена с намјерпм да се велике еврппске силе кпје су међуспбнп ратпвале вјекпвима никада вище пружанп не сукпбе дакле ЕУ псигурава мир и за зараћене и ппсвађане нарпде у БиХ щтп би мпжда и била највећа преднпст пд шланства у ЕУ Чланствпм БиХ у ЕУ сви предуслпви за ствараое бпљег и бпгатијег живпта у БиХ биће на вищем нивпу негп сада пбзирпм на распплпживе пптенцијале и мпгућнпсти Укљушиваоем у јединственп еврппскп тржищте са слпбпдним прптпкпм капитала технплпгије и радне снаге зауставиће се тренд релативнпг запстајаоа БиХ БиХ има велике пптенцијале али дп сада није успјела кпнкурисати на еврппскпм и свјетскпм тржищту јер нема ппшетни капитал кпјим би пптенцијале ставила у функцију а тај ппшетни капитал нуди јпј ЕУ и сада зависи да ли ће БиХ меначмент и пплитишари пве мпгућнпсти искпристити на прави нашин Мнпги струшоаци сматрају да је ЕУ рјещеое за све БиХ прпблеме те да ће управп у Еврппскпј Унији БиХ развити свпј пптпуни пптенцијал јер иакп је БиХ мала земља пна мнпгп тпга мпже ппнудити Превелика пшекиваоа нарпда и пплитишара пд шланства у ЕУ мпгу истп такп дпвести дп јпщ већих разпшареоа укпликп се не изврще адекватне предприпреме и припреме БиХ за шланствп у пвакп пзбиљнпј и слпженпј прганизацији БиХ мпра предузети кпраке на јаснијем прпфилисаоу свпјих интереса какп би щтп ефектније заступала свпје интересе на нивпу ЕУ јер је сасвим извјеснп да у пвпм свијету глпбализације мпже пстварити бпље интересе прекп ЕУ негп да пстане сампстална и изван пве регипналне прганизације Фпрмалнп ппсматранп БиХ би уласкпм прекп свпји представника у институцијама ЕУ мпгла активнп утицати на прпцесе дпнпщеоа пдлука на креираое пдлука щтитећи и заступајући свпје интересе Такпђе фпрмалнп ппсматранп БиХ ће кап и друге државе шланице ЕУ имати у Еврппскпј Кпмисији свпг представника задуженпг за неку пбласт јавних пплитика ЕУ БиХ ће у слушају гласаоа квалификпванпм већинпм щтп је једини �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ сппрни мпменат у прпцесу пдлушиваоа на нивпу у Савјету министара ЕУ и Еврппскпм савјету имати прпппрципналнп гласпва скпрп кап Хрватска Слпвашка Литванија и Ирска или у најгпрем слушају маое за један пд оих тј щест щтп зависи пд резултата ппписа и брпја ппписаних станпвника у БиХ Накпн ратификације приступнпг угпвпра и уласка у ЕУ а у зависнпсти пд резултата ппписа БиХ ће на ппщтим избприма бирати свпјих не маое пд парламентараца у Еврппски парламент Инаше брпј парламентараца у Еврппскпм парламенту није дугпрпшнп шврстп пдређен и мпгап би се мијеоати кап и брпј парламентараца свих других држава шланица ЕУ п шему пред сваке избпре пдлушује Еврппски парламент стим да је брпј парламентараца према Лисабпнскпм угпвпру фиксиран на и предсједника Парламента ЕУ На избприма за Еврппски парламент примјеоује се принцип ппадајуће прпппрципналнпсти при избпру ппсланика шија се сущтина састпји у тпме да државе са маое станпвника има утјещну већу релативну заступљенпст такп да велике државе један ппсланик прпппрципналнп представља скпрп дуплп вище станпвника пд БиХ ппсланика и ппсланика малих држава БиХ ће имати пп једнпг судију у Еврппскпм суду правде Ппщтем суду и Ревизпрскпм суду У скупщтини Еврппске централне банке БиХ ће је представљати гувернер Централне банке БиХ кпји ће накпн уласка у еврпзпну ппстати и бити шлан Савјета гувернера у пквиру Еврппске централне банке БиХ ће на министарскпм нивпу бити представљена у Управнпм савјету гувернера Еврппске инвестиципне банке Тпкпм прегпвпра п пријему у ЕУ биће пдређен брпј представника БиХ у Екпнпмскпм и спцијалнпм пдбпру и Пдбпру регија кап савјетпдавним тијелима ЕУ а кпји се бирају на шетверпгпдищои мандат Евидентнп је да ће са шланствпм у ЕУ БиХ бити заступљена у свим прганима и тијелима ЕУ самп је питаое кпликп ће тај шлан имати снагу утицаја на пдлушиваое пбзирпм да ће БиХ бити најсирпмащнија земља ЕУ Такпђе са друге стране биће неппхпдне пзбиљније измјене Устава и низа закпна на нивпу БиХ и ентитета какп би се ппбпљщала ефикаснпст и кпнтрпла пргана и институција на вези са ЕУ щтп је скпрп немпгућа мисија када се ппгледа у истпријат прпмјене прпписа у БиХ а ппсебнп у дијелу евентуалних нпвих пренпса надлежнпсти на БиХ и ЕУ �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић Мпгуће штетне ппследице пп БиХ у прпцесу чланства у ЕУ Пптпунп је јаснп да БиХ не мпже ни у даљпј будућнпсти испунити шетири пснпвна критеријума или услпва из Кппенхагена за шланствп у ЕУ кпји су дефинисани гпдине а тп су прије свега политички кпји ппдразумијевају стабилне институције кпје гарантују демпкратију владавину права ппщтпваое људских права ппщтпваое и защтиту права маоина затим економски кпјима се тражи ппстпјаое функципналне тржищне екпнпмије и оена сппспбнпст да се нпси са изазпвима кпнкуренције и маркетинщких стратегија у ЕУ критеријум тзв кпји тражи пд кандидата за шланствп у ЕУ сппспбнпст да преузме пбавезе шланства усклађиваое важећег закпнпдавства са правпм ЕУ укљушујући и ппсвећенпст циљевима пплитишке екпнпмске и мпнетарне уније и на крају капацитет интеграције ЕУ пднпснп сппспбнпст саме Уније да прихвати нпву шланицу а да при тпм задржи ппдстицај еврппскпј интеграцији Гасми БиХ би мпрала прије уласка испунити прва три услпва а прије свега ппстићи унутращои кпнсензус за наступ према ЕУ инаше БиХ ће са шланствпм ппстати жртвенп пиле у бари пунпј крпкпдила са најцроим сценаријем за распрпдају прирпдних материјалних и људских ресурса Ппсебна се пажоа мпра ппсветити лпбираоу и наступу иза сцене какп би се мпгли прпфилисати и лпбирати ставпви пд интереса за БиХ щтп захтијева дпнпщеое закпна п лпбираоу слишних пнпм у САД и Ппљскпј те квалитативнп псппспбљаваое и припремаое меначмента кпји би радип у ЕУ и са ЕУ Ппставља се питаое да ли БиХ има уппщте сппспбнпсти и пптенцијала да фпрмира централни Тим и тимпва за прегпвараое пп ппглављима за придруживаое и шланствп пбзирпм да нема унутращои кпнсензус п јединственим ставпвима пп билп кпјпј пбласти те на разлишитп прпфилисане интересе нарпда у БиХ Пвакав став најбпље пптврђује пресуда Сејдић Финци впјна импвина и др кпликп је слпжен прпцес дпгпвараоа прегпвараоа пдлушиваоа а да не гпвпримп п технишкпј реализацији већ дпнесених пдлука у БиХ Лисабпнским угпвпрпм радикалнп се мијеоају пднпси у ЕУ на тај нашин щтп у стварнпсти велики нарпди и државе ће прегласавати мале нарпде и државе шланице ЕУ а не какп је тп фпрмалнп записанп пп слпву Угпвпра Када се анализира структура и нашин пдлушиваоа у институцијама ЕУ дплази се дп закљушка да је тп прилишнп бирпкратизпвана структура са слабпм перспективпм за развпј неппсредне демпкратије и са претјеранпм мпћи Еврппске кпмисије и Савјета министара ЕУ Лисабпнским Угпвпрпм избјегнутп је референдумскп изјащоаваое грађана држава шланица ЕУ п нпвпм Уставу јер је претхпднп дпживјелп неуспјех у Францускпј и Хпландији али је исти на мала врата прпщап у �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ парламентима држава шланица гдје су кприщћени метпди лпбираоа завртаоа руку и уцјеоиваоа пд стране великих држава Евидентнп је да БиХ није пспппспбљена да пређе прву степеницу ЕУ кап правна држава у кпјпј се свакпме ппјединцу мпже ефикаснп и праведнп судити слушајеви кпрупције ратних злпшина убиства са пплитишкпм ппзадинпм пд слушаја Кпљевић и др да БиХ нема представу усаглащене ппгледе циљеве на ЕУ кап и пплитишку културу кпја ппдразумијева и преузимаое пдгпвпрнпсти п шему се мпгу навести брпјни примјери из дпсадащоег функципнисаоа БиХ Затим БиХ нема План развпја привреде превасхпднп у ппгледу прјентације гранскпг развпја да БиХ има унищтенп щкплствп и да не мпже прпизвести кпмплетне кадрпве за глпбалну привреду те да нема дпвпљнп улагаоа у развпј и наушнп истраживашки рад щтп је ппсљедица пплитике влада у БиХ кпје недпвпљнп улажу у пбразпваое и памет БиХ није ствприла атмпсферу за креативнп рјещаваое прпблема путем дијалпга са цивилним друщтвпм прије свега збпг врлп нискпг нивпа пплитишке културе щтп би била пзбиљна пријетоа рјещаваоу изазпва кпје дпнпси шланствп у ЕУ Такп низак нивп пплитишке културе са ппрастпм пшекујућих ппшетних кпнфликата у друщтву дужнишке кризе или пшекујућих других негативних ппјава а ппсебнп спцијалних мпгући су сукпби щирих размјера укљушујући и ратне примјер Гршке државе кпја је на ивици спцијалне ревплуције и грађанскпг рата Кап прелазнп рјещеое Гршка влада се упустила у нпва задуживаоа распрпдају прирпднпг бпгатства стављаое сппствене теритприје ппд хипптеку и др щтп је мпгући извјесни пшекујући сценарип и за БиХ Већина нарпда Еврппе се ушланила у ЕУ са циљем и надпм у перспективну будућнпст дпк прптивници уласка у Еврппску унију еврпскептици углавнпм ппред ппменутих навпде брпјне аргументе прптив шланства Када се анализирају и лпгишки ппсматрају ти аргументи мпрају бити детаљних мултидисциплинарних детаљних анализа и прпцјена Аутпри рада су дпщли дп следећих аргумената кпји би мпгли имати щтетне ппследице пп БиХ и бити ппредјељујући фактпр за преиспитиваое пптребе шланства БиХ у ЕУ и тп  Кап и све друге шланице ЕУ БиХ ће предати већи дип суверенитета и управљаоа на пргане ЕУ ппсебнп у пбласти закпнпдавства гдје ће се мпрати преузети пкп закпна ЕУ кпји су хијерархијски ппсматранп изнад наципналних и државе у тим пбластима губе мпгућнпсти даљое закпнске регулативе БиХ пвпг тренутка има превище унутращоих прпблема јер у БиХ је све сппрнп шак и пнп щтп је у цијелпм свијету несппрнп и пп правилу буде праћенп са три или вище кпнтекстуалних истина Унутар БиХ ппстпји стални сукпб пкп предаје �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић   или птимаоа суверених надлежнпсти пкп неппщтпваоа државе или ентитета и др БиХ ће у пваквпм систему и прпцесу пдлушиваоа и функципнисаоа ЕУ бити прпгутана кап канцерпгена материја кпју пп мищљеоу неких ЕУ треба да пздрави са свпјим пплитикама у брпјним пбластима друщтвенпг живпта щтп је малп вјерпватнп ппзнајући систем живљеоа владаоа и функципнисаоа у БиХ ЕУ не ппзнаје правп референдума и не ппстпји мпгућнпст да се закпни и прпписи мијеоају референдумпм па и пни кпји имају крајое щтетан утицај пп неку пд пбласти живпта и рада у БиХ Прптивници шланства у ЕУ на првпм мјесту навпде да ће се у блискпј будућнпсти изгубити наципнални суверенитети те да ће ЕУ преузети све ингеренције и имати пдлике суверене државе устав теритприј станпвнищтвп грађане сппљне границе валуту предсједника министра инпстраних ппслпва заставу химну државни празник и др Са пваквим надлежнпстима и јпщ неким кпје требају бити пренесене на ЕУ кап нпр у пбласти пдбране и др ЕУ ће ппстати федерална држава са щирпким централним пвлащтеоима дпк ће земље шланице ппстати регије или прпвинције У крајоем све међунарпдне угпвпре са другим државама ће склапати ЕУ а не земље шланице щтп ппказује да се међунарпдни суверенитет држава шланица скпрп у цјелпсти пренпси на ЕУ Влацлав Клаус је мищљеоа да је највећа истпријска грещка Чещке Републике шланствп у ЕУ и да је државу требалп првп уредити какп би мпгла бити равнпправни шлан великпг еврппскпг тржищта и друщтва Такпђе према Клаусу израз уставни угпвпр је непрецизан и привремени угпвпр између садащоих суверених држава и кап такав ће пстати дпк не буде пптврђен у парламентима земаља шланица када ће тај дпкумент ппстати прави устав Према уставнпм угпвпру п ЕУ већу мпћ гласаоа имају државе с већпм пппулацијпм и у прганима ЕУ ће бити вище већинских пдлука негп пних кпје се заснивају на једнпгласнпм пдлушиваоу или кпнсензусу щтп је неппвпљнп пп мале земље Тп знаши да ће изабрани представници БиХ имати малп или нималп утицаја на пдлушиваое у ЕУ Такпђе ЕУ има демпкратске недпстатке неппсредне демпкратије јер не ппстпје границе ппдјеле ингеренција између закпнпдавне изврщне и судске власти Закпне ЕУ дпнпси Савјет министара ЕУ кап прган изврщне власти а не Парламент кпји би требап бити нпсилац Најппзнатији еврпскептик је бивщи Чещки предсједник Влацлав Клаус �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ     закпнпдавне власти ЕУ има централизпвану управу без праве кпнтрпле парламента нарпда и држава шланица кпји су без утицаја на пдлуке истих или бпље решенп пни представљају бирпкратизпвану пднарпђену структуру са пкп бирпкрата Дпминација знашаја изврщних тијела у пднпсу на Парламент пгледа се крпз систем владаоа дпнпщеоа закпна и пдлука кпји се дпнпсе на нивпу ЕУ а кпја је дпвела је дп виспкпг степен кпрупције у институцијама ЕУ п шему се све вище пище и гпвпри у садащоим временима и услпвима недпстатка нпвца те кпја мпже у пвим кризним временима дпвести дп брпјних кпнфликата између шланица ЕУ Правне регулативе ЕУ су прекпбрпјне и прпвпде се са циљем хармпнизације какп би нестале разлике између држава шланица па се такп врлп шестп измищљају и уређују прпписи према разним лпбистишким групацијама п шему има пунп натписа у щтампи ЕУ има вище пд стп хиљада прпписа из разлишитих друщтвених пбласти за кпје је надлежна с тим да се брпј ппвећава гпдищое за нпвих кпје је вепма тещкп пратити и прпвпдити Ти сви прпписи су пуни пгранишеоа и слпжених захтјева щтетних пп мале и безнашајне шланице ЕУ а кпје мпгу испуоавати самп велике државе са щкплпваним меначментпм и снажним екпнпмијама кап щтп је Оемашка Улазак у ЕУ дпнијеће пптребу мијеоаоа институција пплитишкпг система какп би се прилагпдиле шланству у ЕУ да би мпгле пратити рад свих институција ЕУ и ушествпвати у раду брпјних пдбпра и радних тијела Савјета министара ЕУ БиХ Парламент тренутнп нема пптребне капацитете за квалитетнп испуоаваое свих предвиђених пбавеза у пквиру пплитишкпг система ЕУ тј структура парламентарних пдбпра и кпмисија није усклађена са пптребама шланства у ЕУ Такпђе треба дпнијети закпне кпјим ће се уредити пднпси између Предсједнищтва БиХ Парламента БиХ Савјета министара БиХ и ентитета везанп за еврппска питаоа а кпји би регулисали питаоа ефикасне кппрдинације дпгпвараоа пдлушиваоа на ппщте задпвпљствп свих у БиХ Пптребна је прпмјена филпзпфије размищљаоа и дјелпваоа у БиХ у пднпсу према ЕУ какп бисмп успјещнп мпгли активнп ушествпвати у раду пргана ЕУ прпфилисаоу и пствариваоу интереса БиХ Чланствп у ЕУ ће тражити пд БиХ ефикасну унутращоу кппрдинацију и кпнсензус на бази интереса јер би се у супрптнпм мпглп дпгпдити да шестп немамп јединствених ставпва и мищљеоа п кљушним стварима �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић      пд интереса за БиХ збпг минималнпг размимпилажеоа у ставпвима щтп је пп дп садащопј пракси пптпунп извјесан ушестали сценарип Штп се тише екпнпмије акп се анализира закпнпмјернпст искустава нпвппримљених шланица у ЕУ закљушује се да су све имале ппраст увпза ппраст тргпвинскпг дефицита смаоеое царинских прихпда ппраст трпщкпва прилагпђаваоа привреде ппвећанпј кпнкуренцији ЕУ енпрмнп ппвећаое задужеоа привреде и државе прппаст наципналних кпмпанија и др Такпђе статистишки ппдаци гпвпре да се брпј незаппслених рапиднп ппвећавап у ппшетнпј фази накпн пунпправнпг шланства У већини нпвппримљених шланица брутп наципнални прпизвпд је ппвећан али се структура пптрпщое БНП негативнп пдразила на најщире слпјеве станпвнищтва тих шланица мултинаципналне кпмпаније су скпрп пп правилу прпфит пднпсиле у матишне државе индекс среће станпвнищтва се ппгпрщап и др БиХ је рурална земља а ппзнатп је да је систем ппдрщке ппљппривреди ЕУ јакп неппвпљан за сирпмащне и неразвијене земље и да пд ппмпћи имају кпристи самп бпгате земље јер се стимулисаое врщи пп прпцијеоенпј кпрпи пптрпщашкпг базена Пвај прпцес би мпгап дпвести дп расељаваоа БиХ и дп пдласкаа радне снаге у бпгатије државе ЕУ шиме би села и маои градпви у БиХ пптпунп нестати или би мпжда били настаоени неким имигрантским нарпдима кпје ће мпћне државе ЕУ стимулисати за дплазак у БиХ Прихватаоем евра губи се кпнтрпла над привредпм иакп у садащоем стаоу када Централна банка БиХ нема надлежнпст у впђеоу емисипне пплитике пплитике каматних стппа навикнути смп на тп стаое несуверенпсти у пвпј пбласти Државе шланице ЕУ кпје нису прихватиле еврп имају далекп успјещније екпнпмије у пвпм кризнпм времену пд пних кпје су прихватиле еврп кап валуту таквих је држава шланица ЕУ Кризи еврпзпне се и даље не види крај збпг шега се све вище изнпсе ставпви у пплитишким и наушним кругпвима п непдрживпсти еврппске мпнетарне уније Страни држављани би накпн пдгпднпг перипда мпгли без пгранишеоа куппвати земљищте у БиХ щтп би у скпрпј будућнпсти битнп нарущилп власнишку и демпграфску структуру у БиХ а самим тим би индиректнп ималп утицаја на избпрне резултате и структуру власти у БиХ а у крајоем би утицалп директнп на пдлушиваое у БиХ Чланице ЕУ јпщ нису успеле да пдгпвпре на нпве изазпве ппвезане са глпбалним прпмјенама и ппставља се питаое да ли су екпнпмски пптенцијали интеграција исцрпљени те да ли је ЕУ већ пптрпщила свпју будућнпст какп је тп изјавип предсједник Кине Акп ЕУ хпће да пстане глпбални партнер мпраће се пдлушити за брпјне рефпрме �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ   У ЕУ ппстпје слаби интегративни елементи између бпгатих развијених држава са виспким степенпм демпкратије и нпвппримљених сирпмащних неразвијених и са ниским степенпм демпкратије такп да је тещкп предвидјети будуће тпкпве интеграција Ппставља се питаое да ли је у услпвима брпјних разлика у свим пбластима друщтвенпг живпта екпнпмске религијске културплпщке пплитишке и др мпгуће изградити еврппски идентитет или ће ЕУ бити прпст збир грађана кпје су перспективе и да ли је ЕУ кап таква дугпрпшнп пдржива Да ли је интерес великих једини и главни интегративни фактпр ЕУ и какп у мнпщтву оихпвих интереса прпфилисати интересе БиХ ентитета и нарпда БиХ Генералнп ппсматранп у краткпрпшнпм и средоерпшнпм перипду већина нпвппримљених шланица ЕУ је имала вище щтете негп кпристи пд шланства ЗАКЉУЧАК Чланствп БиХ у ЕУ је неминпвнпст јер ту припадамп гепграфски екпнпмски и културплпщки щтп су пснпвни предуслпви за припаднпст тпј регипналнпј прганизацији Дпгматски прихваћене дпбре стране шланства у ЕУ ће бити најбпљи тренутни сан или ппијум за пве нарпде на Балкану али мпрају се узети у пбзир негативне кпнптације шланства у ЕУ ппгптпвп са станпвищта предупређиваоа тих негативнпсти Превелика пшекиваоа нарпда и пплитишара пд шланства у ЕУ мпгу истп такп дпвести дп јпщ већег разпшареоа укпликп се не изврще адекватне предприпреме и припреме БиХ у свим пбластима друщтвенпг живпта за шланствп у пвакп пзбиљнпј и слпженпј прганизацији Највећа неппзнаница ЕУ је у щта ће се прпцес еврппских интеграција кпнашнп претвприти тј какп ће изгледати идентитет ЕУ и да ли ће бити пп мјери свих еврппских нарпда шланица ЕУ Актуелни прпцес еврппских интеграција и прпщиреоа ће имати највећи знашај щтп ће тренутнп или мпжда трајнп имати ппзитивне ефекте на стабилизацију пднпса јашаоа сарадое и ппвезиваоа некада супрпстављених страна на прпстпру бивще Југпславије и Западнпг Балкана Несппрнп је да ће БиХ пренијети највећи дип суверенитета на ЕУ да ће у пваквпм систему пдлушиваоа ће изабрани представници БиХ имати малп или нималп утицаја на дпнпщеое пдлука и прпцес пдлушиваоа у прганима ЕУ На екпнпмске тпкпве за щта смп ппсебнп заинтереспвани БиХ неће имати скпрп никаквпг утицаја Апсплутни екпнпмски ппказатељи мпжда ће имати тенденцију �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић ппраста али ће релативни ппказатељи имати негативни салдп такп да ће стандард и дпмаћа пптрпщоа бити смаоени збпг изнпщеоа прпфита у матишне државе мултинаципналних кпмпанија БиХ нема изграђен сппствени наципнални наднаципнални идентитет такп да исти неће битније утицати на фпрмираое мпгућег еврппскпг идентитета јер већина држава ЕУ припаднике нарпда БиХ сматра самп јужоацима Наща слабпст сппрпсти у дпнпщеоу пдлука би мпгап бити највећи прпблем кпд заузимаоа јединствених ставпва у ситуацијама када мпрамп или требамп давати ставпве или мищљеоа п прпписима кпји се дпнпсе на нивпу ЕУ Пвп ће захтијевати виспк нивп и ефикаснпст кппрдинације између ентитета и нарпда у БиХ Генералнп ппсматранп према анализама ппказатеља нпвппримљених држава шланица ЕУ у краткпрпшнпм и средоерпшнпм перипду БиХ ће имати вище щтете негп кпристи пд шланства у ЕУ ЛИТЕРАТУРА Гасми Г Правп и пснпви права ЕУ Бепград Универзитет Сингидунум Чавпщки А Прпщиреое Еврппске уније у светлу Угпвпра из Лисабпна Прпщиреое Еврппске уније на Западни Балкан Бепград Центар за унапређиваое правних студија Лппандић Д Рефпрма Еврппске уније Западни балкан и Србија Закаснела интеграција �ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ПДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ПДЛУЧИВАОА И ФУНКЦИПНИСАОА ЕУ НА БиХ �Стеван Дакић Предраг Обреновић � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 3159 Title A name given to the resource ИМПЛИКАЦИЈЕ ОДЛУКА, МЕХАНИЗАМА ОДЛУЧИВАЊА И ФУНКЦИОНИСАЊА ЕУ НА БиХ Author Author Дакић, Стеван Обреновић, Предраг Abstract A summary of the resource. У раду се говори о последицама донијетих одлука, механизама одлучивања и функционисања органа Европске Уније, а посебно о могућим штетним последицама на Босну и Херцеговину по чланству у ову регионалну организацију. Ово је један од покушаја, надам се не и безуспјешан као многи раније, приказивања и стварања слике о могућим, превасходно, штетним последицама по БиХ донијетих одлука и механизмима одлучивања у ЕУ у контексту механизама одлучивања у Босни и Херцеговини, а превасходно оне који би били у супротности са интересима конститутивних народа у БиХ. Основно је питање да ли ћемо моћи одговорити сложеним захтјевима и механизмима одлучивања у ЕУ, обзиром на још сложеније у БиХ. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available Pravni fakultet Univerziteta u Bihaću i Centar za društvena istraživanja Internacionalnog Burč univerziteta Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2014 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed K Law (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/d9a1c7fedecd287382101fa9e192c487.pdf 957c195bc158bc6f373d75c7864af0fc PDF Text Text Khalid Zaman / Iqtidar Ali Shah / Muhammad Mushtaq Khan / Mehboob Ahmad Levin, A. & Lin, C. F. (1992). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties, mimeo, University of California, San Diego. Levin, Andrew; Chien-Fu Lin and Chia-Shang James Chu, (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties, Journal of conometrics, 108(1): 1-24. Linden, M. (1992). Military expenditure, government size and economic growth in the Middle East in the period 1973-1985, Journal of Peace esearch, 29(3): 265-270. MacNair, E.S.; James C. Murdoch; Chung-Ron Pi & Todd Sandler, (1995). Growth and defense: pooled estimates for the NATO Alliance, 1951-1988, outhern conomic Journal, 61(3): 846-860. Maddala G, Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. xford Bulletin of conomics and tatistics 61: 631–652. Mueller, Michael J. & Atesoglu, H.S. (1993). Defense spending, technological change and economic growth in the United States, efence conomics, 4: 259-269. Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. conometric Theory 20: 597–625. Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors, xford Bulletin of conomics and tatistics, pecial issue, ovember, 61, pp. 653-70. Pedroni, P. (2000). Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated Panels, Advances in conometrics, 15: 93-130. Phillips P. and Perron, P. (1988); Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrica, Vol. 75, o. 3, pp.335-346. Sezgin, S. (1999a). A causal analysis of Turkish defense growth relationships: 1924-1996, Ankara niversity Journal of Political ciences, 55(2): 113-123. Sezgin, S. (1999b). Defence expenditure and economic growth in Turkey and Greece: a disaggregated analysis, Paper Presented at a The Arms Trade, Security, and Conflict conference at Middlesex University Business School, London, 11-12 June. Sezgin, S. (2000). An empirical analysis of Turkey’s defence-growth relationships with a multi-equation model (1956-1994), efence and Peace conomics, 11(1): 63-80. SHRDC (2008). SAARC Human Resource Development Centre, 2008, Database Profile on Macroeconomic and HRD Indicators in the SAARC Region (1990-2006). Online available at: www. shrdc-isb.org.pk accessed on May 2, 2010. SIPRI (2008). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Oxford, Oxford University Press. Smyth, R and Narayan, K, P. (2009). A panel data analysis of the military expenditure-external debt nexus: evidence from six Middle Eastern countries. Journal of Peace esearch, Vol. 46, o. 2, 235-250.. Stock, J. and Watson, M.W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher Order integrated systems, conometrica , 61(4) :783-820. UNDP (2008); Human Development Report 2007-2008, Washington D.C Human Development Report (2007-2008). United Nation Development Program. Available online at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/ accessed on May 5, 2010. World Bank (2008). World Development Indicators 2008. Washington D. C. Yildirim, J. and Sezgin, S. (2002). Defense, education and health expenditures in Turkey, 1924-1996, Journal of Peace esearch, 39(5): 569-580. Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S. & Ocal, N. (2005). Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries: a dynamic panel data analysis, efence and Peace conomics, 16(4): 283-295. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals AKIGHIR David Terfa Department of Economics, Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria. akighirdavidterfa@ yahoo.com OKPE. I Department of Economics, Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria. A A The paper examines government expenditure on nomadic education in KEYWO D igeria and the implications for achieving the M Gs. econdary data ducation, Government were used and the data were analyzed with the aid of descriptive statistics. xpenditure, Millennium The study revealed that government expenditure on nomadic education evelopment Goals, omads, in igeria over time has been on the increase which has necessitated the igeria. increase in the number of nomadic schools and teachers in the country. The study further found out that there is a wide gap between male and A I LE HI O Y female enrolments in nomadic schools in igeria; factors such as early ubmitted: 20 ctober 2011 marriages and teenage pregnancies, cultural and religious biases as well esubmitted: 10 ebruary 2012 as economic issues were believed to be responsible for the gap. Also, it esubmitted: 12 March 2012 was discovered that the total increase in nomads’ enrolments in nomadic esubmitted: 24 April 2012 schools in the country is not proportionate with the increase in government Accepted: 21 May 2012 expenditure on nomadic education. The study attributed this low school attendance by the nomads to the problems of under-funding, dearth of teachers, constant migration of nomads, the involvement of the children of nomads in the productive system, corruption, among others. The study concluded that the present form of implementation of the nomadic education would make it difficult for it to be a panacea for achieving the M Gs in the country. ecommendations were made on how to improve on the nomadic education system in the country. JEL odes: H5, 015 146 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 147 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Introduction Education is the spring board for social and economic change. It plays a major role in the socio-economic development of a nation. Education occupies an important place in most plans for economic and social development. It is important in the human development as a supplier of the trained man power as well as a requisite for the accomplishment of other development goals (Adebiye,2004). These roles played by the educational sector stimulate economic growth and development of a country. This explains why countries of the world expend so much on this vital sector in order to enhance the level of literacy of their citizenry. Inequality of access to education and educational marginalization have deleterious effects on the national development of a country. In Nigeria, however, available records have shown that expenditure on education is below the internationally acceptable standard. According to the UNDP Human Development Report (2008), Nigeria spends almost an insignificant proportion of its financial resources on education, the expenditure on education in Nigeria as a proportion of GDP averaged 5.84 percent, which falls below the UNESCO’s benchmark of 26 percent of the budgets of developing countries. This accounts for the sluggish educational growth rate of 0.59 in the country. The poor funding of education in Nigeria has over time deprived a lot of Nigerians access to education. According to Nafisatu and Abdu (2010), out of the estimated population of 9.4 million nomads in Nigeria,3.3 million are children of school age, but the participation of the nomads in the existing formal and non-formal education programs is abysmally low, with a literacy rate ranging between 0.2% and 2.9%. The Nigerian nomadic pastoralists are made up of the Fulani (5.3m), Shuwa (1.01m), Koyam (32,000), Badai (20,000), Dark Buzzu (15,000) and the Buduma (10,000). The Fulani are found in 31 out of the 36 states of Nigeria, while others reside mainly on the Borno plains and shores of Lake Chad. The migrant fishing groups account for about 2.8 million, comprising numerous tribes. They are found in the Atlantic coastline, the riverside areas and river basins of the country. These groups of people amongst others do not have access to functional education in the country over time. In the quest to remove the chronic illiteracy among this mobile population of Nigeria, the federal government of Nigeria introduced Nomadic Education Program (NEP) in 1986. NEP was designed to provide the nomads with the relevant and fundamental basic education that would improve their survival skills. This was expected to provide them with the knowledge and the skills that would enable them raise their productivity and income; as well as empower them to participate effectively in the socio-economic and political affairs of the country. In a bid to achieving these goals, 148 Journal of Economic and Social Studies the National Commission for Nomadic Education (NCNE) was established in 1989 with the mandate to: a) formulate policies and guidelines on all matters relating to nomadic education in Nigeria; b) provide funds for research and personnel development for the improvement of nomadic education; and develop programs on nomadic education and provide equipment, instructional materials, construction of classrooms and other facilities for nomadic education (Nafisatu and Bashir,2010). Over the years, the government has been spending money on the nomadic education program so as to provide an unfettered access to quality basic education for the nomads. The aim is to equip them with the skills and competencies that will enhance their wellbeing and participation in the nation-building process. The Nigerian government considers nomadic education as a veritable measure for the development of the universal basic education with a view to achieving the Education for All (EFA) goals and the Millennium Development Goals ( National Commission for Nomadic Education,2002 ). An assessment of the results of the program against its objectives thus far is imperative. Government expenditure on education in Nigeria has been widely studied. However, attention has not been paid specifically on assessing the impact of government expenditure on nomadic education as a measure aimed at achieving the MDGs of universal basic education in Nigeria. At best, available literature presents partial analyses of this issue. Thus, to be area specific, this paper seeks to evaluate the impact of government expenditure on nomadic education in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining whether or not, it will be the key for achieving the universal basic education of MDGs in Nigeria. Following the introduction, the paper is structured as follows: Section two deals with the review of government expenditure on education in Nigeria and the outline of the MDGs. Section three considers the evolution and strategies of nomadic in Nigeria; while section four presents the problems of nomadic education in Nigeria. Section five is the method of the study; section six presents and analyses the data. Section seven uncovers the findings of the study; and section eight contains the recommendations and conclusion of the paper. Government Expenditure on Education in Nigeria Government funding of education in Nigeria comes from different sources. The major one for all levels of government is the public revenue from taxation and oil (Saavedrea, 2003). Education funds are reported to be distributed among the primary, secondary and tertiary education levels in the proportion of 30%, 30% and 40%, respectively ( Balami ,2003). According to Hinclifte (2003) (as cited in Adewale, Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 149 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Ajaji and Enikanoselu, 2005), Government expenditure on education includes direct government expenditure ( for teachers’ salaries and instructional materials) as well as indirect expenditure in the form of subsidies to households such as tax reductions, scholarships, loans and grants. It also includes payment from Education Tax Fund (ETF), mainly for capital expenditure. The main sources of funds that the Nigerian government has are federal taxes and duties on petroleum, profits, imports and exports, which form the revenue of the Federation Account, and the centrally collected Value Added Tax (VAT) introduced in 1996. The federal government allocations to the educational sector from 1995 to 2011 is presented in Table 1. Table1. Federal Government Allocation to Education between1995-2011 Years 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 2009 2010 2011 Capital (N) 3,017,900,000 3,215,800,000 3,807,900,000 9,739,600,000 8,291,800,000 35,000,000,000 35,183,789,000 22,100,000,000 15,723,260,401 21,550,000,000 50,540,287,898 40,005,096,425 53,667,933,553 304,670,538,799 Recurrent (N) 9,798,600,000 12,135,900,000 13,033,200,000 13,828,300,000 19,421,700,000 29,514,932,711 37,676,055,443 59,994,441,815 63,228,742,652 72,217,886,839 145,219,839,130 196,218,973,905 192,594,871,801 518,251,289,348 Total ( N) 12,816,400,000 15,351,700,000 16,841,200,000 23,666,100,000 27,713,500,000 64,514,932,711 72,950,836,443 82,094,441,815 78,952,003,053 93,767,886,839 195,760,127,029 236,224,070,330 246,262,805,354 356,495,828,145 Source: Budget Office of the Federation, Federal Ministry of Finance, 2011. The table above shows that government expenditure on education consists of recurrent and capital expenditure. In nominal terms, it can be seen from the table that the budgetary allocations to the education sector are on the increase but the growth rate is not impressive. For instance, in 2008 the allocation to the capital expenditure on education was 6.4% of the total budget and it was 3.9% in 2009, and 3.9% in 2010 representing 0.0% increase between 2009 and 2010; while the educational allocation to the recurrent expenditure was 15.1% in 2008,15.0% in 2009, and 14.4% of the total budget in 2010. This represents a decline of -0.6% in the allocations between 2009 and 2010. These allocations have grossly failed to meet the UNESCO’s 150 Journal of Economic and Social Studies conventional benchmark of 26% for the budgets of developing countries. Given the importance of this sector to human and economic development, it would be important to push the education allocations up to at least half of the international benchmark requirement so as to attain the universal basic education as described in the goal two of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Outline of the Millennium Development Goals(MDGs) At the Millennium Summit held in September 2000, in New York, United States of America, members of the United Nations (UN) made the following declaration: We will spare no effort to free our fellow men, women and children from the abject and dehumanizing conditions of extreme poverty, to which more than a billion of them are currently subjected to”. This led to the acceptance and the formulation of the Millennium Development Goals which are expected to be fully achievable in the year 2015. These goals are: Goal 1: Eradication of extreme poverty and hunger by half in 2015; Goal 2: Achievement of the universal primary education by 2015; Goal 3: Promotion of gender equality and empowerment of women by 2015; Goal 4: Reduction of child mortality rate especially the under 5 by two-third in 2015, Goal 5: Improvement of the maternal health; Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases; Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability; and Goal 8: Development of a global partnership for development (National Planning Commission,2004). The quest to achieve the universal basic education as described by goal two of the MDGs, the Nigerian government gave a rekindling interest to the Nomadic Education Program as one of the measures of achieving the MDGs in the country by 2015. Evolution and Strategies of Nomadic Education in Nigeria. The Nomadic Education program (NEP) started officially in November 1986, after The Yola National Workshop on Nomadic Education. The workshop resolved that : “… The nomads needed a fair deal through the provision of education and other social amenities to reciprocate their contribution to the nation-building ….” (Ismail, 2000). Consequently, the Federal Government promulgated the Decree No. 41 of Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 151 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals December 1989 (now CAP 243 LFN), which established the National commission for Nomadic Education (NCNE) with the responsibility to implement the National Nomadic Education Program. The NCNE was mandated to formulate policy and issue guidelines in all matters relating to nomadic education in Nigeria. These mandates include: providing funds for research and personnel development of nomadic education in Nigeria; the development of programs on nomadic education; the provision of equipment and other instructional materials, construction of classrooms and other facilities relating to nomadic education. Secondly, to establish, manage and maintain primary schools in the settlements and grazing reserves carved out for nomadic people. Thirdly, to determine standard of skills to be attained in the nomadic schools. Also, to arrange for effective monitoring and evaluation of activities of agencies concerned with nomadic education. It was mandated to liaise and cooperate with other relevant ministries and agencies. Furthermore, NCNE was to receive block grants and funds from the Federal Government or any agency authorized and allocate same to the nomadic schools based on any format approved by the Federal Executive Council; act as agency for channeling all external aid to the nomadic schools in Nigeria; ensure effective inspection of nomadic education activities in Nigeria through the sections in the Federal and State Ministries of Education performing duties relating to nomadic education. Finally, it was mandated to collate, analyze and publish information relating to nomadic education in Nigeria; and undertake any other action desirable for the promotion of nomadic education in Nigeria (National Commission for Nomadic Education, 1989). The commission has four departments, namely, Program Development and Extension; Monitoring, Evaluation and Statistics; Administration and Supplies and Finance and Accounts. It has six Zonal offices located in Bauchi for the North-East, Kano for the North-West, Minna for the North-Central, Ibadan for South-West, Enugu of the South-East and Benin for the South-South. Furthermore, it has four university-based nomadic education centers located in the University of Port Harcourt for migrant fishermen education, University of Maiduguri for teacher-training, University of Sokoto for curriculum development, and University of Jos for research and evaluation to cater for pastoral nomads (National Commission Nomadic Education, 2000). The Organogram of the Commission is shown in Appendix I. tation of the nomadic education program. The programs briefly highlighted are: Provision of primary education – this program is implemented in collaboration with States and Local governments, as well as local communities, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and Collaborative Body Organizations (CBOs). So far, all the 36 States and Abuja are participating in the program. However, their level of commitments to the program varies. Provision of academic support services through the University based centers. The centre at Jos is responsible for research and evaluation, the University of Maiduguri for teachers training and outreach programs, Usmanu Dan Fodiyo University for the development of curricula and textual materials and the University of Port Harcourt for research, curricula development and teachers training for the education of migrant fishing communities. The Commission has been working closely with the Centers for the development of curricula materials and pupils’ texts, conduct of research projects and the organization of teachers training workshops; Provision of infrastructural facilities – faced with the problem of inadequate infrastructure that has necessitated teaching and learning under trees, the Commission has adopted the following strategies for addressing the peculiar needs of all the groups: provision of permanent and semi-permanent structures, provision of mobile collapsible classroom structures, provision of boat schools and dug-out canoes. Provision of extension services: Actual intervention by the Commission in the provision of educational extension services to the nomads only began in 1996/97. The major driving force behind the NCNE’s intervention in this aspect of education was the realization that, the adoption of an integrated approach to education provision engender nomads participation in support for the program. However, the mandate of the Commission specifically restricted its operation to the provision of primary education to the children of the nomads. The dilemma necessitated the convening of an Experts Meeting on viable strategies for implementing Nomadic Education in Nigeria in 1995. Having examined the condition of nomadic education in Nigeria, the meeting came out with recommendations to further strengthen, expand and sustain the program. Some of the recommendations were that, the provision of education should be for the children as well as the adults, and that tremendous efforts be made to positively alter the behaviour of nomads towards modern education. Nomadic Education Program Strategies Current Program Implementation In pursuance of its functions, the National Commission for Nomadic Education has between 1990 and 2006 evolved four distinct programs for the effective implemen- 152 Journal of Economic and Social Studies To support effective teaching and learning, the Commission also collaborates with Nomadic communities, CBOs, NGOs, at all levels, development partners and other Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 153 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals international support organizations. Over the years, the Commission has embarked on a number of activities and recorded modest achievements in the following areas, namely: Broadening access to basic education – providing access to basic education, the NEP has facilitated 2,354 schools in 36 States and FCT for pastoralist children (432,411), 451 for fisher folk children (88,288) in 9 states, 260 schools for migrant farmers in 8 states with 33,164 pupils; The Commission has facilitated the increase in the number of nomadic schools. The number of Nomadic schools increased from 2,094 in 2005 to 2,294 in 2006 and to 2,526 in 2007. There was progressive teachers recruitment and retention in nomadic schools, there was an increase in the number of nomadic schools teachers from 6,918 in 2005, to 7,989 in 2006 and 8,665 by 2007; there was an increase in Nomadic girl-child education initiative of the Commission which has increased female enrolment, progression, and transition in Nomadic schools. The female enrolment has increased from 153,489 in 2006 to 164,769 in 2007 representing 28% increase rate (Nafisatu and Abdu, 2010). Problems of Nomadic Education in Nigeria According to Nafisatu and Abdu (2010), the following are the problems militating against the smooth operation of the NEP in Nigeria: constant migration of the nomads, the involvement of children in the productive systems, unsuitability of the formal school curriculum, physical isolation and restriction of the nomads from social interaction with the larger society, unfavorable land tenure system, underfunding of nomadic education and late release of approved funds, unwillingness of State and Local Governments to make budgetary allocations for Nomadic Education Program, indiscriminate transfers of the teachers by LGEAs from the Nomadic primary schools to conventional primary schools without replacements, the dearth of teachers in terms of quantity and quality, relatively low level of enrolments in Nomadic schools, general lack of supervision and monitoring of nomadic schools by the local and state governments, relative exclusion of Nomadic schools from UBE and other intervention funds accruing to the States, Non-provision of funds for the Commission’s extension service programs, constant clashes and conflicts between farmers and herders and amongst fisher folks over fishing rights resulting in displacements. According to Ismail (2000), the under-funding of nomadic education is partly blamed on inaccurate demographic data. Lack of reliable statistics on the nomads leads to planning based on guessing; there was much confusion as to the actual number of the nomadic schools, types of school facilities and the 154 Journal of Economic and Social Studies number of teachers in various locations. Lack of authentic data in these areas has made planning for nomadic education very difficult. Schools are stationed inappropriately; few in densely populated areas, and many in sparsely populated areas. Malinga (2009), observed that, the major hindrances to school attendance are the daily grazing movements and the lack of labor substitutes. Unlike farmers who use child labor marginally, the Fulani rely heavily and continuously on the children for labor. A Fulani man will not send his child to school even if an adult is available to attend to the animals because the child needs to learn the herding skills. The reliance on juveniles for shepherding task, explains the poor participation of the pastoralists in formal education. From the foregoing, it is apparent that Nafisatu and Abdu, Ismail, and Malinga have identified various problems of nomadic education in Nigeria. However, in this study, the problem of underfunding of nomadic education, dearth of teachers in terms of quantity and quality, corruption, constant migration of the nomads, and active involvement of the school-going age children of the nomads in the productive system were ranked as the most important problems. Thus, these problems were critically engaged in the section of data analysis. Method of the Study The study used mainly secondary data that were obtained from the National Commission on Nomadic Education (NCNE) and the Federal Ministry of Finance as well as journals. The data collected were on the number of pupils enrolment, number of nomadic primary schools, number of teachers in nomadic schools and government expenditure on nomadic education in Nigeria from 1990 to 2008 as well as the corruption perceptions indices in Nigeria. The data were analyzed using tables, percentages, trend graphs, bar charts and rates. Data presentation and Analysis In order to evaluate the impact of government expenditure on nomadic education in Nigeria, data were collected on the number of schools, teachers and the pupils’ enrolments in nomadic schools from 1990 to 2008 as presented in table 2. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 155 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Table 2. Distribution of the of nomadic schools, Teachers and Pupils enrolment from 1990 to 2008 Years 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 No of schools 329 473 626 656 754 860 940 1,103 1,022 1,068 1,494 1,574 1,680 1,820 1,981 2,034 2,354 2,354 2,526 Source: NCNE, 2008 No of teachers 878 1,489 2,491 2,365 2,822 2,788 2,915 3,265 3,265 3,365 4,748 4,907 5,290 6,306 6,861 6,918 7,989 7,989 8,665 Pupils enrolment Male 13,763 25,942 33,463 38,335 42,738 56,759 63,638 71,695 69,578 75,601 112,958 118,905 134,930 175,962 211,931 222,061 224,304 224,304 235,064 Female 5,068 10,559 16,689 15,253 19,094 35,751 40,938 47,081 47,366 46,934 80,291 84,939 92,014 127,556 151,622 153,489 164,769 164,769 197,347 Total 18,831 65,019 50,152 53,588 61,832 92,510 104,576 118,776 116,944 122,535 193,243 203,844 226,944 303,518 363,553 375,550 389,073 389,073 432,411 The table reveals that the number of nomadic schools in the country has increased from 329 in 1990 to 2,526 in 2008 representing a cumulative increase of 87% in the number of nomadic schools. It further shows that, the number of teachers employed to handle teaching and learning in the nomadic schools has increased from 878 in 1990 to 8,665 in 2008 representing 90% increment in the number of teachers employed during the period. The table also depicts that the number of pupils’ enrolment in nomadic schools rose from 18,831 in 1990 to 432,411 in 2008, representing a cumulative increase of 96% in the total pupils’ enrolment over the period. To show clearly these increasing trends, data from table 2 were used to construct trend graphs as shown in Figures 1 and 2. The trends show clearly that both the number of nomadic schools and teachers have increased over time in Nigeria. The main reason for the trend may be the government’s continued grant-in-aid to the nomadic education. 156 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Figure 1 Trends of the number of Nomadic schools and the number of Teachers employed over time The chart in Figure 2 further shows that the number of pupils’ enrolment by gender in nomadic education in Nigeria is on the increase. Source: Constructed from the data in table 2 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 157 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Figure 2. Pupils’ enrolments in Nomadic school by gender A close examination of the chart reveals that there is a wide gap between male and female enrolments over the years. In a bid to explain the gender gap in nomadic education in Nigeria, we considered the general causes of low female school enrollments in Nigeria. Some of the factors are early marriages and teenage pregnancies. These are common experiences in the country, especially in the northern part of the country where the nomads are dominant. In that part of the country, many school-age girls often drop out of school because of pregnancies to marry. Secondly, cultural and religious biases adversely affect girl-child education in Nigeria. Many Nigerian parents, especially in large families with limited resources, tend to enroll boys in school instead or before girls. Some parents also keep their daughters out of schools due to misinterpretation of the tenets of the Islamic religion. This practice is typical of illiterate Muslims of which the nomads are part of. They generally believe that their female children will face sexual harassment in schools. Nonetheless, poverty and economic issues are equally contributory factors to this gap. Given the high level of poverty in Nigeria, many parents, including the nomads, often send their daughters to sell wares in the market or on the street in order to generate additional incomes for the families. For the Fulani nomads, their school-age daughters are commonly involved in the hawking of extracted cow milk. These factors are responsible for the disproportionate male-female enrolments in Nigerian schools, especially at the primary school level. Thus, it may be said that nomadic education in the country also faces these general problems. This male-female gap in school enrolments has a very serious implication for attaining the two educational Millennium Development Goals of Universal Primary Education(UPE) and the elimination of gender disparities in the primary and secondary schools in 2015. This is so because, the EFA goals and MDGs in Nigeria aimed at raising the gender parity rate to 80% in primary 1-6 and 50% in JS1-3 by 2015, using nomadic education as a potent tool. Furthermore, the growth rate of government expenditure on nomadic education in Nigeria was compared with that of pupils’ enrolments in nomadic schools. The results are presented in table 3. Table 3. Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education and Pupils Enrollment in Nigeria YEAR EXP(N) 1990 4227139.00 1991 5284802.00 25.02 65019.00 245.28 1992 2958582.00 -44.02 50152.00 -22.87 1993 11225544.00 279.42 53588.00 6.85 1994 6930438.00 -38.26 61832.00 15.38 1995 3153896.00 -54.49 92510.00 49.62 1996 8929536.00 183.13 104576.00 13.04 1997 8876172.00 -0.60 118776.00 13.58 1998 6613698.00 -25.49 116944.00 -1.54 1999 15676272.00 137.03 122535.00 4.78 2000 17382572.00 10.88 193243.00 57.70 2001 81352364.00 368.01 203844.00 5.49 2002 87872301.13 8.01 226944.00 11.33 2003 50000000.00 -43.10 303518.00 33.74 2004 51163143.22 2.33 363553.00 19.78 2005 59890663.01 17.06 375550.00 3.30 2006 70162576.31 17.15 389073.00 3.60 2007 70373063.00 0.30 389073.00 0.00 2008 70584183.00 0.30 432411.00 11.14 % D in EXP ENROLLMENT % D in Enrollment 18831.00 Source :NCNE, Annual Report,2000. The table shows that government expenditure on nomadic education has been on the increase over the years, even though the increase has not been consistent. As it can be seen from the table, in nominal terms, the expenditure has increased over time from N4,227,139.00 in 1990 to N70,548,183.00 in 2008. However, in terms of the growth rate, the trend of the expenditure on nomadic education has not demonstrated any definite trend. For instance, in 1991, the expenditure increased by 158 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 159 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals 25.05% and declined by 44.02% in 1992, it then rose tremendously by 279.42% in 1993 and thereafter, decreased by 38.26% in 1994. The declining trend continued and again, appreciated by 183.13% in 1996 and peaked in 2001 by 368.01% . The Expenditure dropped by 43% in 2003 and afterwards, increased moderately. Pupils’ enrolments as depicted in the table increased continuously during the review period except in 1992 and 1998 when a decline was recorded. The enrolments increased from 18,831 pupils in 1990 to 43,244 pupils in 2008 representing a cumulative increase of 56.45% in the number of pupils enrolled. In order to clearly see whether the increases in the government expenditure are commensurate with the changes in the enrolments, percentage rates for the expenditure and enrolments over time as contained in the table 3 were used to construct a trend graph as shown in Figure 3. Source: Constructed from the data in Table 3. Figure 3. Trends in Percentage change in Expenditure on Nomadic Education and School Enrollment in Nomadic school in Nigeria A close examination of the trends reveals that the percentage increases in school enrolments by the nomads are not proportionate with the increases in government expenditure on nomadic education over time. Having discovered this, we tried to ascertain the possible causes for the disproportionate relationship between government expenditure on nomadic education and nomadic school enrolment in Nigeria. In doing this, we have engaged some variables critically to see whether they are 160 Journal of Economic and Social Studies responsible for this relationship . First, we considered the problem of underfunding of nomadic education in the country. We used the ratio of government allocations to nomadic education as the proportion of the total education allocations in the country over the years as a proxy for underfunding problem as shown in the table 5. Table 5. The ratio of Government Allocations to nomadic Education as a proportion of the total allocation to the Education sector in Nigeria. Year Government allocation to Education (N) Government allocation to Nomadic Education (N) Ratio of Government allocation to Nomadic Education as a percentage of Total allocation to Education (%) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 12,816,400,000 15,351,900,000 16,841,200,000 23,666,100,000 27,713,500,000 64,514,932,711 72,950,836,443 82,094,441,815 78,952,003,053 93,767,886,839 195,760,127,029 236,224,070,330 246,262,805,535 356,495,828,145 3,153,896.00 8,929,536.00 8,876,172.00 6,613,698.00 15,678,272.00 17,382,572.00 81,352,364.00 87,872,301.13 50,000,000.00 51,163,145.22 59,890,663.01 70,162,576.31 70,373,063.00 70,584,183.00 0.02 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.11 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 Source: Computed from Tables 1 and 4 The table shows that government expenditure on nomadic education as a percentage of the total allocations to the education sector averaged 0.05%. This proportion is indeed ,too meager to exert any meaningful impact on nomadic education as per increased enrolment rates. Secondly, we considered the teacher-student ratio as a proxy for the problem of inadequacy of teachers in nomadic schools over the years as shown in the table 6. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 161 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Table 6. Teacher-Student Ratio in nomadic Education Schools in Nigeria Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Number of Teachers 875 1489 2491 2365 2822 2788 2915 3265 3265 3365 4748 4907 5290 6306 6861 6918 7989 7989 8665 Number of Pupils 18,831 65,019 50,152 53,588 61,832 92,510 104,576 118,776 116,944 122,535 193,243 203,844 226,944 303,518 363,553 375,550 389,073 389,073 432,411 Teacher-Student ratio 25 44 20 23 22 33 36 37 36 36 41 42 42 48 53 55 49 49 50 Source: Computed from Table 2 By taking the average of the teacher-student ratio over the years as contained in the table 6, it was discovered that the ratio is 1:40, implying that there are 40 students to a teacher. These number of students to a teacher is relatively high since such a teacher may find it difficult to discharge responsibilities effectively as required. The net effect may be abstentism by the students due to ineffective control over them which could degenerate into subsequent drop- out of many nomads of school-age from school. Furthermore, we examined the menace of corruption, where we used the Corruption Perceptions Indices with a view to demonstrating how corrupt practices affect public funds in Nigeria, of which nomadic education is no exception. Transparency International introduced the corruption perceptions Index in 1995 to measure the level of corruption in countries. The CPI scores relate to the perceptions of degree of corruption as seen by business people and country analysts. The scores range between 10( highly clean) and 0 (highly corrupt). The CPI scores for Nigeria from 2003 to 2010 are shown in the table 7. Table 7. The Corruption Perception Indices for Nigeria Year CPI 2003 1.6 2004 1.4 2005 1.6 2006 1.9 2007 2.2 2008 2.2 2009 2.7 2010 2.8 Source: Transparency International, 2011 162 Journal of Economic and Social Studies From the above table, Nigeria has an average of 2.0. This implies that Nigeria is hypercorrupt. The implication is that, even with the meager allocations to nomadic education, corrupt practices may have weakened the supposedly positive impact. Thirdly, we looked at the constant migration of the nomads as a factor that may have caused low school attendance of the nomads. The nomads are typically people that travel from one place to another due to the nature of their occupations. These constant migrations have deleterious impact on school attendance of their children. Once they relocate from a given place, they abandon the schools their children were attending. Thus, it normally takes the children some time to settle down and start school in the new settlement. Lastly, we took cognizance of the factor of active involvement of the children of the nomads in the productive system. The mentality of nomads is such that they believe in training their young ones who are of school-age in their trades. This practice has made them to place more preference for their productive system than the education of their children. Consequent upon these analyzed factors, we submit that low school attendance of the nomads may be as a result of the synergy of these factors. Generally, the growth rates in school enrolments of the nomads in Nigeria is not encouraging because, of the estimated 3.3 million nomads of school going age, the available statistics show that only 432,411 nomads were enrolled for nomadic education as at 2008. This implies that, about 2,867,589 nomads representing 86.9% of the school-age nomads were not going to school. The implication is that, with all the efforts made by the government over time to ensure equal access to education among the various groups in the country with a view to achieving the MDGs in the country by 2015; only 13.1% of the total nomads of school-age were going to nomadic school as at 2008. This school enrolment rate of the nomads is too low to make any meaningful contribution to the overall achievement of the universal basic education as described in the Millennium Development Goal two. In Nigeria generally, the Millennium Development Goals are influenced by some of these socio-economic and political factors: First, there is a disconnection between the tiers of government in the implementation of the MDGs. However, the constitutional responsibility for the implementation of almost all the goals rest with the States and Local governments in Nigeria’s Federal structure; but in spite of remarkable strides at Federal level, appreciation of the requirements for meeting these goals, as well as institutional capacity remain relatively low at these levels of government. Poor governance and integration of the MDGs into national development strategies have also been a challenge. This is aggravated by policy inconsistencies, for instance, Obansanjo regime introduced NEEDS I and II, Yar’adua’s administration instituted Seven-point Agenda and Vision 20:20:20 and President Goodluck has now introduced Transformation Agenda. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 163 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals All these policies are at variance in principle but targeted at achieving the MDGs in the country. Other challenges include, lack of transparency and accountability in ministries, lack of the political will; a weak monitoring mechanism for the MDGs and low stakeholders involvement( private sector and civil society organizations ). Lastly is the unavailability of up to date data on most of the indicators. This is compounded by the limited funding available for data generation and management in the country. Findings of the Study Emergent from the above discussion, it was found out that the government over the years has demonstrated concern to ensure equality in the literacy level among the various groups in the country by initiating nomadic education in order to boost the literacy rate among the nomads who are educationally disadvantaged. This concern can be seen from the perspective of continued and sustained expenditure on nomadic education over the years. It was discovered that increases in government expenditure on nomadic education have precipitated increases in the number of nomadic schools in the country across the states vis-à-vis the number of teachers employed by the government to ensure smooth teaching and learning in nomadic schools in the country. The study revealed that enrolments by the nomads in the schools have also increased over time but not proportionate with the increases in the government expenditure. Factors such as underfunding, dearth of teachers, corruption, constant migration of the nomads and active involvement of the children in the productive system by the nomads may have been responsible for this gap. It was also found out that, there is wide gap between male and female enrollments in nomadic schools over the years. Factors such as early marriages and teenage pregnancies, cultural and religious biases as well as poverty and economic issues may have been responsible for gender gap in the enrolments in nomadic schools in the country. foundation. Consequent upon the foregoing, the following recommendations are submitted: First, there should be continuous mobilization and sensitization of the nomads to send their children to these schools especially the female children so as to bridge the gap between the male- female enrolments in nomadic schools. Second, the states and local governments should be made to supplement the federal government funding of the nomadic education, as this will go along way boosting the achievements in nomadic education in the country. Third, nomadic educational development initiatives should be planned and aligned with other community improvement and development programs such as agricultural extension, rural development and social welfare services. This approach will attract the interest and involvement of more stakeholders as this will encourage the stakeholders to support the program. Fourthly, there should be selection of more individuals from nomadic communities for training as teachers, this is because they are more acquainted with the cultural values of the nomads. Thus, they will be better placed to inculcate the necessary knowledge in the targeted nomads. Fifthly, the government should provide support to animal health issues especially on major diseases and vaccines as well as provision of support in the area of water development for improvement of livestock production and reduction of incident of conflicts between the nomads and the hosting communities. This practice will make the nomads more stable in a place to receive nomadic education. Sixthly, government should seek more new partnerships and greater collaboration with development partners and other stakeholders in other to boost the financing of nomadic education for higher results. Seventhly, NCNE should adopt a flexible timetable that adjusts itself to seasons favorable to nomads, as this would enhance their enrollments. Finally, the government should actively consider the issue of language barrier to communication, and find contextually appropriate language policies. Conclusion and Recommendations Based on the above findings, it is concluded that the present implementation of the nomadic education in the country may make it difficult for it to be a panacea for achieving Millennium Development Goals(MDGs) in terms of universal basic education attainment by 2015. This is so because, the growth focus of the Millennium Development Goals( MDGs) is more concentrated at the importance of achieving clear and real progress in human capital development measured through educational 164 Journal of Economic and Social Studies References Adebiyi, M.A. (2004). Public Expenditure and human capital in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Model. International Journal of Economics, 1(3), 86-77. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 165 �AKIGHIR David Terfa / OKPE. I Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Adewale, T.M, Ajayi, K.O & Enikanoselu,O.A. (2005). Trends in the Federal Government Financing Education in Nigeria. Journal of ducation Management, 1(1), 35-41. Association for the development of Education in Africa (1999). Ensuring Access and Equity in Basic Education for Nomads in Nigeria. www.adeanet.org/adeaportal/adea/program/.../pstr99-nigeria. pdf on 28th August,2001. Balami, D. (2002). Finance of Education in Nigeria. Paper Presented at the orum on ost and inance of ducation in igeria at Women evelopment entre, Abuja,12th-14th May, Abuja. Fashima, D. (2005). Reforms in Nigeria University system: What Direction? ational reedom, 1 (6), 30-36. Ismail ,I. (2000). Nomadic Education and Education for Nomadic Fulani. Retrieved from www. gamji.com/fulani7.htm. on 15th August, 2011. Federal Ministry of Finance (2011). ederal Government of Ministry of Finance, Abuja, Nigeria. igeria Annual Budgets. A publication of Hinchcliffe, K. (2003). Public xpenditure on ducation in igeria: Issues, stimates and some Implications, Abuja, World Bank Publication. Malinga, M. F. (2009). lexible education eaching nomadic children in Africa. Retrieved from www. cedol.org/cgi-bin/items.cgi on 15th August, 2011. Nafisatu, P. & Abdul, B. (2010). Enhancing Livestock Development and Means of Existence for the Vulnerable Populations through Education and Training. A case of NEP in Nigeria. A Paper presented at the I , P A and forum on ivestock breeding and food ecurity in Accra, Ghana. ecember 14th – 16th, 2010. ( ) Policy ocument, Published by NPC, Abuja, Nigeria. Saavedrea, M.A. (2003). Debt service- Education Expenditure Nexus: The Nigerian Experience. elected Papers for the year 2002 Annual onference, The igerian conomic ociety( ) PP,243-267. Tahir, G. (1996). Vision and Mission of Nomadic Education in Nigeria: paper delivered during the , ational conference on Vision and Mission of igerian ducation; at the I 22nd -25th July 1996 , Kaduna. Tahir, G., Nafisatu, D.M & Ahmed, M.M (2005). Improving the quality of Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Going Beyond Access and Equity. A study conducted by the ederal Ministry of ducation of igeria, 2005 in collaboration with Association for the evelopment of ducation in Africa (A A). Retrieved at www.adea net.org. on 15th August 2011. Tahir,G. (1998). “ Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Issues, problems and prospects”. Journal of omadic studies,(1)1, 10-26. Transparency International (2011). Corruption Perception Index for Nigeria. Retrieved from www. nigerianmuse.com/2011201145701zg/nigeria-watch. 28th January,2012. UNDP(2008). Human Development Report on Nigeria, New York Appendix I Figure1. An Organogram showing the organizational Chart of National Commission for Nomadic Education ORGANISATIONAL CHART OF NATIONAL COMMISSION FOR NOMADIC EDUCATION MINISTER OF EDUCATION National Commission for Nomadic Education (1989). “ Federal Government intervention in the Education of Nomads in Nigeria, 1996 – 1999”. Memorandum submitted to the panel on streamlining/ ationalization of poverty Alleviation institutions/Agencies by the ational ommission for omadic. A publication of NCNE, Abuja, Nigeria. National Commission for Nomadic Education (1989). Abuja, Nigeria. ecree BOARD EXECUTIVE SECRETARY National Commission for Nomadic Education (2000). Action plan 2000-2005,NCNE Publication, Abuja, Nigeria. National Commission for Nomadic Education (2002). ducation inancial ecord 1990-2002, NCNE publication, Abuja, Nigeria. National Commission for Nomadic Education ( 2002). Monitoring eport 2002, NCNE publication, Abuja, Nigeria. National Commission for Nomadic Education (2009). ducation inancial ecord 2003-2008, NCNE publication, Abuja, Nigeria. National Planning Commission (2004). ational conomic mpowerment and evelopment trategy Finance & Accounts Administration o.14 of 1989, NCNE publication General Admin. Establishment Transport Supply Monitoring Budget & Funds North West Zone North Central Zone North East Zone Academic Planning Computer Unit Documentation Unit Evaluation Statistics South South Zone Animal Husbandry & Extension Legal Services Unit Information Unit North East Zone Special Services Section Mobilization & Public Enlightenment University Centers Graphics Unit Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto Source: NCNE, 2000 Field Operation Final Accts. South West Zone Physical Planning & Maintenance Programme Development & Extension Monitoring Evaluation & Statistics University Of Jos University Of Maiduguri University Of Port-Harcourt Audit Unit � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2392 Title A name given to the resource Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Author Author Akighir, David Terfa Okpe, I. Abstract A summary of the resource. The paper examines government expenditure on nomadic education in igeria and the implications for achieving the M Gs. econdary data were used and the data were analyzed with the aid of descriptive statistics. The study revealed that government expenditure on nomadic education in igeria over time has been on the increase which has necessitated the increase in the number of nomadic schools and teachers in the country. The study further found out that there is a wide gap between male and female enrolments in nomadic schools in igeria; factors such as early marriages and teenage pregnancies, cultural and religious biases as well as economic issues were believed to be responsible for the gap. Also, it was discovered that the total increase in nomads’ enrolments in nomadic schools in the country is not proportionate with the increase in government expenditure on nomadic education. The study attributed this low school attendance by the nomads to the problems of under-funding, dearth of teachers, constant migration of nomads, the involvement of the children of nomads in the productive system, corruption, among others. The study concluded that the present form of implementation of the nomadic education would make it difficult for it to be a panacea for achieving the M Gs in the country. ecommendations were made on how to improve on the nomadic education system in the country. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/e2046b94b514edc86ac853134ab71563.pdf aec938016432cbe78875e9325ef239fe PDF Text Text Halil UCAL / Mehmet BOLUKBAS Johansen, S. (1995) ikelihood Basic Inference in ointegration Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, New York. Kutlar, A. and M. Şimşek (2001) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıklarının Dış Ticaret Açıklarına Etkileri, Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: 1984–2000, okuz ylül Üniversitesi, İİB ergisi, 16 (1), 1–13. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms 1(*) Merza, E., Alawin, M. and Bashayreh, A. (2012) The Relationship Between Current Account and Government Budget Balance: The Case of Kuwait, International Journal of Humanities and ocial cience, 2(7), 168-177. Aygul ANAVATAN Akdeniz University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, 07058, Antalya, Turkey aygulanavatan@akdeniz.edu.tr, Peker, O. (2009) Türkiye’deki Cari Açık Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Analiz, Kocaeli Üniversitesi osyal Bilimler nstitüsü ergisi, 17(1), 164-174. Murat KARAOZ Puah, C., Lau, E. and Tan, K. L. (2006) Budget-Current Account Deficits Nexus in Malaysia, Munich Personal eP c Archieves, 37677(27), 1-27. Utkulu U. (2003) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları ve Dış Ticaret Açıkları Gerçekten İkiz mi? Koentegrasyon ve Nedensellik Bulguları”, . .Ü. İİB ergisi, 1(18), 45–61. Sever, E. And M. Demir (2007) Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı ile Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi ie İncelenmesi, skişehir smangazi Üniversitesi İİB ergisi, 2(1), 47-63. Vamvoukas, G. (1999) The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence From Greece, Applied conomics, 31, 1093-1100. Yücel F. and Ata, A. Y (2003) Eş-Bütünleşme ve Nedensellik Testleri Altında İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması, Çukurova Üniversitesi osyal Bilimler nstitüsü ergisi, 12(12). Zengin, A. (2000) İkiz Açıklar Hipotezi (Türkiye Uygulaması), Gazi Üniversitesi konomik aklaşım ergisi, 11(39), 37–67. Akdeniz University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Econometrics, 07058, Antalya, Turkey, mkaraoz@akdeniz.edu.tr Abstr ct The most widely used model in multivariate analysis of survival data is proportional hazards model proposed by ox. While it is easy to get and interpret the results of the model, the basic assumption of proportional hazards model is that independent variables assumed to remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. ne of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable and a parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using ox regression considering time-varying variables. The firm data comes from Business evelopment enters (İŞG M) which is a prominent business incubation center operating in urkey. KEYWO D urvival Analysis, ox egression Model, Proportional Hazard Assumption, ew irms A I LE HI O Y ubmitted:22 Jun 2012 esubmitted:03 January 2013 Accepted:25 March 2013 Jel ode: 41, 24, M13 1 This research paper has been an extension to the findings of the scientific research project “The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, 109K139, which has been funded with grant from TÜBİTAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey). We also acknowledge the administrative support to the project from Turkish Small and Medium Entreprises Development Organisation (KOSGEB). (*) Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 53 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia because the event of interest death, disease or some other event of interest usually is death,usually disease isincidence, or someincidence, other negative individual negative individual experience (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). experience (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). Introduction Survival analysis deals with the probability of occurrence of a given event at a set of particular points in a time interval (Cox and Oakes, 1984; Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005). In the small business and entrepreneurship literature, survival analysis has been used to track the start-ups over the years. The typical survival anaylsis may include the reports of hazard rates, ratios and survival curves while relating a likely set of independent variables to a specific event. A survival curve of a cohort of newly established firms reports what percentage of the cohort continue to survive since its inception over time, indicating whether some of the firms are failed over the years (Karaöz and Albeni, 2011). In many survival studies, it has been examined whether some variables or risk factors are effective on survival or not. Cox proportional hazards (PH) model is the most preferred model in order to investigate the effect of variables on survival time. The key assumption of Cox model is that hazard rate related to different levels of the factors is constant throughout the follow-up period (Başar, 2006). Violation of the PH assumption requires additional measures for unbiased results of Cox survival regression. In this paper, Cox regression has been applied to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. Violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. When survival time (�) is defined as a random variable with cumulative distribution function �(�) = ��(�� � ��) and probability density function �(�) = � �(�)⁄� (�), survival function �(�) is explained by Equation (2.1) (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007); �(�) = �(� � �) = 1 � �(�) Survival function �(�) gives the probability that the random variable � exceeds the specified time � (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). All survival functions have the characteristics that i) they are nonincreasing; that is, they head downward as � increases, ii) at time � = 0, �(�) = �(0) = 1; that is, at the start of the study, since no one has gotten the event yet, the probability of surviving past time 0 is one, iii) at time � = ∞, �(�) = �(∞) = 0; that is, theoretically, if the study period increased without limit, eventually nobody would survive, so the survival curve must eventually fall to zero (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). The hazard function �(�), with its complement of survival function �(�), is given by Equation (2.2), where �� denotes a small interval of time (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); ℎ(�) = lim���� Survival Analysis Survival analysis is a collection of statistical procedures for data analysis for which the outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs (Harrell, 2001). This event may be failure, and for this reason, the analysis of such data is often referred to as survival analysis (Bellera et al., 2010). The main objectives of the survival analysis are i) to estimate and interpret survival characteristics: Kaplan-Meier plots, median estimation and confidence intervals (CI), ii) to compare survival in different groups: Log-rank test, iii) to assess the relationship of explanatory variables to survival time: Cox regression model (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007). In a survival analysis, it is usually referred to the time variable as survival time, because it gives the time that an individual has “survived” over some followup period (Geiss et al., 2009). It is also typically referred to the event as a failure, because the (2.1) �(��������|���) (2.2) �� The hazard function ℎ(�) gives the instantaneous potential per unit time for the event to occur, given that the individual has survived up to time � (Tabatabai et al., 2007). In contrast to the survival function, which focuses on not failing, the hazard function focuses on failing, that is, on the event occurring. Thus, in some sense, the hazard function can be considered as giving the opposite side of the information given by the survival function (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). The Cox Proportional Hazards Model The Cox Proportional Hazards Model The Cox PH model is usually written in terms of the hazard model formula shown at Equation This model gives expression the hazard time � The Cox PH model(2.3). is usually written in an terms of the for hazard modelatformula shown at Equation (2.3). This model gives an expression for the hazard at time t 2 54 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 55 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia for an individual with a given specification of a set of explanatory variables denoted by �. That is, � represents a collection of predictor variables that is being modeled to predict an individual’s hazard (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); � ℎ(�, �) = ℎ� (�)� ∑��� �� �� (2.3) The Cox model formula says that the hazard at time � is the product of two quantities. The first of these, ℎ� (�), is called the baseline hazard function. The second quantity is the exponential expression � to the linear sum of �� �� , where the sum is over the � explanatory � variables (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In general, a hazard ratio (��) is defined as the hazard for one individual divided by the hazard for a different individual. The two individuals being compared can be distinguished by their values for the set of predictors, that is, the X’s. Hazard ratio is shown by the following formula, where �∗ denotes the set of predictors for one individual, and � denotes the set of predictors for the other individual (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); � * � � * � = h�t,X � = h0 (t) ��p�∑ βi Xi � = ��p�∑p β�i �X i* -Xi �� HR i=1 � � (t) � (t,X) h h0 ��p�∑ βi X i � (2.4) �∗ = ���∗ , ��∗ , � , ��∗ ��and�� = ��� , �� , � , �� � denote the set of �’s for two individuals. Once the model is fitted and the values for �∗ and � are specified, the value of the exponential expression for the estimated hazard ratio is a constant, which does not depend on time. If we denote this constant by ��̂, then hazard ratio can be written as shown below (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); A key reason for the popularity of the Cox model is that, even though the baseline hazard is not specified, reasonably good estimates of regression coefficients, hazard ratios of interest, and adjusted survival curves can be obtained for a wide variety of data situations. Another way of saying this is that the Cox PH model is a “robust” model, so that the results from using the Cox model will closely approximate the results for the correct parametric model (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In addition to the general “robustness” of the Cox model, the specific form of the model is attractive for several reasons (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). First, the � exponential part � ∑��� �� �� of hazard model ensures that the fitted model will always give estimated hazards that are non-negative. Another tempting property of the Cox model is that, even though the baseline hazard part of the model is unspecified, it is still possible to estimate the �’s in the exponential part of the model. Lastly, it is preferred over the logistic model when survival time information is available and there is censoring. That is, the Cox model uses more information (the survival times) than the logistic model, which considers a (0,1) outcome and ignores survival times and censoring. Evaluating the Proportional Hazards Assumption For variables not satisfying the non-proportionality assumption, the power of the � �� = ��p�∑��� ��� (��∗ � �� )� (2.5) Evaluating thetests Proportional Hazards corresponding is reduced, that is, it isAssumption less likely to conclude for a significant If hazard ratio is greater than 1, the group which has the distinction of 1 category of the variable will higher significantly likely to be exposed to interest event by comparison 0 category of that variable. If the hazard ratio is equal to 1, chance of closing the two groups are equal; if it is between 0 and 1, the group receiving 0 category value has a lower closing probability by comparison 1 category. 3 56 The basic assumptions of the Cox regression model can be explained as follows (Yay, Çoker and Uysal, 2007); i) the effects of independent variables on the hazard function are loglinear. ii) The relationship between loglineer function of independent variables and the hazard function is multiplicative. iii) In addition to these two assumption, observations should independent of each other and hazard ratio should remains unchanged with respect to time, ie., is constant. This assumption related to hazard ratio is known as proportional hazard assumption. Journal of Economic and Social Studies effect when there is actually one. If the hazard ratio is increasing over time, the For variables not satisfying the non-proportionality power of the estimated coefficient assuming PH is overestimatingassumption, at first and the underestimating later on. For those of that the model constant hazard ratio, the power corresponding tests variables is reduced, is, it iswith less alikely to conclude for a significant of testswhen is also reduced as a consequence an inferior of the model et effect there is actually one. If the of hazard ratio isfitincreasing over(Bellera time, the al., 2010).coefficient assuming PH is overestimating at first and underestimating estimated later on. For those variables of the model with a constant hazard ratio, the power of tests is also reduced as a consequence of an inferior fit of the model (Bellera et al., 2010). 4 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 57 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia There are three general approaches to assess the PH assumption: 1) Graphical Approaches; Kaplan-Meier and log-log plots, observed versus expected plots, 2) Goodness of fit (GOF) test, 3) Statistical Methods; schoenfeld residuals, the logThere are three general approaches to assess the PH assumption: 1) Graphical rank test and time-dependent covariates. Approaches; Kaplan-Meier and log-log plots, observed versus expected plots, 2) Goodness of fit (GOF) test, 3) Statistical Methods; schoenfeld residuals, the logrank test and time-dependent covariates. Extension theCox Cox Proportional Hazards Model Extension ofofthe Proportional Hazards Model An important feature of this formula, which concerns the PH assumption, is that the baseline hazard is a function of �, but does not involve the �’s. The �’s in the formula are called time-independent �’s (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). It is possible, nevertheless, to consider �’s which do involve �. Such �’s are called time-dependent variables. If time-dependent variables are considered, the Cox model form may still be used, but such a model no longer satisfies the PH assumption, and is called the extended Cox model (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005). In the case of being time-dependent explanatory variables, Cox regression model expands to a model which contains time-independent variables and some functions of the time the product with these variables. Independent variables are, where �� � �� � � � ��� time-independent variables and �� (�)� �� (�)� � � ��� (�) time-dependent variables (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005); �(�) = ��� � �� � � � ��� � �� (�)� �� (�)� � � ��� (�)� as shown. Accordingly, Cox regression model is, � and � which denote vector of coefficients of explanatory variables (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005); � � � � ���� �(�)� = �� (�) exp �∑��� �� �� �(�)� �� �� + ∑��� (2.6) as written. Where �(�) is defined as a function of time. Selection of �(�) varies according to the state of the variables used and according to the information level of the researchers. This function usually is defined in the form of �, ���( �), ��(�) or step functions (Sertkaya, Ata and Sözer, 2005). � � (�) = ����� �� � ∗ (�)� � ����(�)� (2.7) �� � �� = exp �∑��� �� ���∗ � �� � + ∑��� �� ���∗ (�) � �� (�)�� An Application Into New Firm Survival Under Incubation Although the survival analysis extensively has been used in medical research on individuals, recently it becomes widely popular in business success and survival research. Thus, rather than on individuals, in this paper, we apply Cox regression to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. There are studies applying survival violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. Our 414 observations on firm characteristics acquired from 12 different incubators, İŞGEMs, located across Turkey, in Zonguldak, Tarsus, Ereğli, Eskişehir, Adana, Mersin, Van, Avanos, Samsun, Elazığ, Yozgat and Diyarbakır provinces. The data includes almost all firms that currently existing İŞGEMs or the firms that resided in the past yet left İŞGEMs by graduation or failure. The survey data consists of the total. A business incubator can be identified as an organization which mentors the development of newly founded firms by specialized services such as providing office space, specialized staff, machinery, equipment, facilities and business assistance (Aernoudt, 2004). Thus a business incubator is a framework organization which contains a collection of newly established firms. İŞGEMs are one of the significant business incubation concept operating in Turkey. Variables Used in the Analysis For our analysis, factors affecting the initial success of young enterprises can be summarized as i) Human capital characteristics of new enterprise's owner such as education level and sector experience, ii) Firm characteristics such as scale, age and human capital, iii) Industry characteristics such as market growth rate and entry barriers, iv) Incubation features, v) Other external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations, regional factors and public policies (Hackett and Dilts, 2004; Aernoudt, 2004). All of the data and variables used in our analysis are taken from Karaöz and Albeni (2011) and descriptive statistics and definitions are presented at The general hazard ratio formula for extended Cox model is shown below (Kleinbaum and Klein, 2005); 58 5 Journal of Economic and Social Studies 6 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 59 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Although the survival analysis extensively has been used in medical research on individuals, recently it becomes widely popular in business success and survival research. Thus, rather than on individuals, in this paper, we apply Cox regression to investigate the survival of newly established firms under incubation. There are studies applying survival violation of PH assumption has been tested and further Cox regressions are performed considering time-varying effects of independent variables to survival. Our 414 observations on firm characteristics acquired from 12 different incubators, İŞGEMs, located across Turkey, in Zonguldak, Tarsus, Ereğli, Eskişehir, Adana, Mersin, Van, Avanos, Samsun, Elazığ, Yozgat and Diyarbakır provinces. The data includes almost all firms that currently existing İŞGEMs or the firms that resided in the past yet left İŞGEMs by graduation or failure. The survey data consists of the total. A business incubator can be identified as an organization which mentors the development of newly founded firms by specialized services such as providing office space, specialized staff, machinery, equipment, facilities and business assistance (Aernoudt, 2004). Thus a business incubator is a framework organization which contains a collection of newly established firms. İŞGEMs are one of the significant business incubation concept operating in Turkey. Table 1. The variables used in analysis and descriptive statistics VARIABLE 60 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number of Mean Minimum Maximum Observation If the firm is closed (failed) during or after 414 the incubation 1, otherwise 0 exit - 0 1 404 41,52 2 158 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 367 3,64 3 4,25 414 - 0 1 414 5,83 0 40 414 - 0 1 414 1,24 1 4 DEPENDENT VARIABLE The elapsed time from the firm’s entry into incubation until it’s closed (month) incubage INDEPENDENT VARIABLES If entrepreneur’s income only comes from the incubated firm 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur is female 1, male 0 (If gender there are both male and female partner 0) Entrepreneur’s age (If there is a partnerlnentage ship, it is taken as the oldest entrepreneur’s age-logarithmic scale) If entrepreneur is a college graduate 1, enteduuni otherwise 0 (if there is a partnership and one of the partners is college graduate 1) Entrepreneur’s prior experience before entexp arriving İŞGEM (year) If there is a role model for entrepreneurfamily ship in entrepreneur’s family or surrounding 1, otherwise 0 The number of partners within the estabpartner lished firm income FEATURES OF THE FIRM Variables Used in the Analysis For our analysis, factors affecting the initial success of young enterprises can be summarized as i) Human capital characteristics of new enterprise’s owner such as education level and sector experience, ii) Firm characteristics such as scale, age and human capital, iii) Industry characteristics such as market growth rate and entry barriers, iv) Incubation features, v) Other external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations, regional factors and public policies (Hackett and Dilts, 2004; Aernoudt, 2004). All of the data and variables used in our analysis are taken from Karaöz and Albeni (2011) and descriptive statistics and definitions are presented at Table 3.1. The entrepreneur’s age, gender, education, professional career history and experience and family environment factors are the main factors in the literature in terms of the survival of firms (Karaöz and Albeni, 2011). DEFINITION EVENT OF INTEREST CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ENTREPRENEUR An Application Into New Firm Survival Under Incubation export If the firm export 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 lnempini initial firm size (logarithmic scale) 392 1,31 0 5,70 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 414 - 0 1 If the firm is a brand owner 1, otherwise 0 414 - 0 1 If firm’s founding capital is completely loan 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur is in cooperation with networking stakeholders within and outside the incubator 1, otherwise 0 If entrepreneur has made innovation 1, innova otherwise 0 If the firm has had an advertising 1, othadvert erwise 0 onlyloan brand Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 61 �EXTERNAL FEATURES incubsize sector compete prorank cycle The number of incubation’s workshop If the firm is in the manufacturing industry 1, in the service sector 0 Intensity of competition in the sector (1-5 Likert scale) (%) Share of the GDP per capita of the province in the Country GDP where the incubation center is located If the firm has experienced an economic crisis 1, otherwise 0 Figure 1. The survival curve of firms which is present or graduate from incubation (month) 0 1 Kaplan-Meier survival estimate 1.00 - 0 1 414 43,14 14 84 411 - 0 1 410 - 1 5 414 1,51 0,59 2,07 414 - 0 1 0.75 - 0.50 whenest If entrepreneur has used at least one of the common services offered by incuba- 414 tion 1, otherwise 0 If the incubated firm entered the incubation center within first 3 years (36 months) 414 of incubation center 1, otherwise 0 0.25 comserv Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia 0.00 INDUSTRIAL INCUBATION PROPERTIES SERVICES AND PROPERTIES Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Source: Karaöz M. and Albeni M.,” The Factors Affecting Survival and Growth Performance of Newly Established Enterprises in Business Incubators: A Survey on the KOSGEB Business Development Centers (İŞGEM)”, TÜBİTAK Project No: 109K139, Isparta, March 2011. (exit) variable is used as dependent variable. It takes the value of 1 if the firm is closed within the period in incubation or after the firm has graduated from incubation, the value of 0 in other cases. In addition to (exit), exit time (incubage) is the other main variable in our survival analysis. As seen at Table 3.1, for our dataset, the firms’ average life expectancy is 41.52 months. The maximum survival time observed as 158 months. Some of the firms failed either during or some time after leaving the incubator. Yet some of the firms still continue their activity either at incubator or outside the incubator. Survival curve of firms has been presented at Figure 3.1. According to the figure, surivors after 158 months diminish to about 20%. 50 0 analysis time 100 150 Results All Cox Regression results with and without considering time effects are presented in Table 3.2. (gender), (lnentage), (family), (export), (lnempini), (advert), (brand), (comserv), (sector), (compete) and (cycle) variables are insignificant in Model 1, which the time-dependent effects have not taken into account. According to Model 1 estimates, entrepreneur’s gender, age, whether s/he is affected family environment; initial firm size, whether the firm exports and does advertising, whether the firm is brand owner; whether the firm takes advantage of common services offered by incubators; the sector in which the firm, intensity of competition in the sector and whether the firm experienced any macroeconomic crisis are not significant on the firms’ survival times. Our tests indicate that further estimations are necessary using time-dependent variables. Thus we produce further new estimates and present most relevant two model results at Table 3.2. Model 2 includes the variables which in Model 1 and all of the interaction terms created by each of these variables multiplying , which is a function of time, in order to handle variable-time interaction. The Model 3 are obtained by removing the interaction terms of (lnempini), (innova), (enteduuni), (whenest), (export), (brand), (gender), (sector), (advert), (networking), (entexp), (income), (onlyloan), (partner), (family), (lnentage), (comserv), (compete) and (cycle) variables from the model. Model 3 is the best model that takes into account timedependent effects. The variables of (incubsize) and (prorank) are found to be the time-dependent variables. 62 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 63 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Table 2. The estimates of the basic model and Cox model with time-dependent variables Variable Coefficient Variable income gender lnentage enteduuni entexp family partner export lnempini onlyloan networking innova advert brand comserv whenest incubsize sector compete prorank cycle 1.18 -0.056 0.265 0.659 -0.084 -0.307 -1.71 0.827 0.214 -1.03 -1.47 -1.67 0.636 0.865 0.264 -1.18 0.010*** 0.892 0.732 0.044** 0.042** 0.402 0.015** 0.308 0.278 0.063* 0.004*** 0.006*** 0.17 0.275 0.592 0.013** 0.002*** 0.738 0.416 0.013** 0.21 5.16 1.14 6.45 0.289 -0.307 -4.63 1.07 6.47 0.274 -6.97 4.45 -2.24 -2.74 -4.22 -6.63 -0.985 -0.261 19.4 0.253 0.745 0.422 0.924 0.342 0.205 0.844 0.576 0.847 0.215 0.333 0.74 0.522 0.685 0.217 0.813 0.015** 0.291 0.23 0.003*** 0.085* 1.75 -0.093 0.721 0.762 -0.101 -0.249 -2.39 0.951 0.196 -1.88 -1.54 -2.46 0.615 1.61 0.638 -2.25 -0.253 16.9 0.000*** 0.826 0.364 0.024** 0.013** 0.518 0.001*** 0.303 0.298 0.002*** 0.004*** income gender lnentage enteduuni entexp family partner export lnempini onlyloan networking innova advert brand comserv whenest incubsize sector compete prorank cycle -0.959 -0.352 -1.48 0.139 0.055 1.23 -1.08 -1.25 -0.023 1.3 -1.7 -0.147 0.924 1.48 1.99 -0.415 0.059 0.427 0.699 0.474 0.861 0.505 0.212 0.457 0.678 0.954 0.378 0.177 0.937 0.418 0.582 0.161 0.718 0.030** 0.344 0.17 0.001*** 0.108 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.058 - - -5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.017** - - 0.001*** - -0.02 -0.156 -0.157 -1.16 0.46 Model 1 -4.39 2.92 10.5 Model 2 -0.425 -0.341 0.791 Model 3 Model 2 (cont.) Model 3 (cont.) 0.001*** 0.198 0.074* 0.234 0.000*** 0.009*** 0.362 0.099* 1.03 -0.903 0.002*** 0.040** -5.74 -2.5 - *, **, and *** indicate significance at the 1, 5, and 10% levels, respectively. Log-likelihood and prob values of ​​Model 1, 2 and 3, respectively, are -190.632 [0.000***], -165.552 [0.000***] and -173.255 [0.000***]. 64 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 65 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Evaluating the employment probability: Men and women in comparative perspective in Attica and Central Macedonia Also considering the Model 2 and 3, we obtain various results regarding the variables. The possibility of failure of the firms, whose owners only dependent on earnings coming from its new-born firm, is about 6 times higher than other firms. In this case it has been seen that the entrepreneurs having income from other sources are more likely to be successful in start-up business. It is interesting to see the result that the firms whose owners are university graduates have about two times higher risk of failure than other firms. Yet there is a plausible explanation. Most of the incubator residents are specialized in low-technology industries, which have higher likelihood of failure. University graduates, who later realized that the new business has not much prospect, close the firm immediately and return looking for a job related to his carreer. University graduates have higher chance of finding a better paying job than non-university graduates. By the same token, non-university graduates seem to strive more to keep the new business alive. An increase in the number of partners in the firm decreases the possibility of failure of firms to 20%. It is interesting to see that failure risk of firms, whose founding capital is formed entirely by loans, is only about %15 of the other firms, whose initial capital is partially or fully self-financed. If an entrepreneur is in collaboration with stakeholders within and outside the incubation, survival probability of the firm becomes approximately 5-times higher. Moreover, it has been seen from the estimates that innovation activity of new firms increases chance of survival approximately 12-times. Brand ownership also increases the chance of the firm’s survival. Establishing a firm within an incubation center that is within its first 3-years (36 months) increases survival probability. Finally, firms those experiences a macroeconomic crisis have nearly two times more likelihood of failure than others. were estimated by including the time-dependent explanatory variables in the model. Our extended model results have shown that it become useful to estimate the Cox Proportional Hazards regression by also including the time-varying explanatory variables to the analysis. Both the time-independent and time-dependent variables create significant effects on the probability of survival of the İŞGEM firms. Overall, our estimates suggest that entrepreneurial experience acquired before starting business at İŞGEM, higher number of partners in the firm, formation of the firm’s capital completely by loan, being in collaboration with stakeholders within and outside the incubator, innovative activities in the firm, starting the new business within first 36 months of an incubator (in a young incubator), higher number of office spaces, establishing the firm in an economically larger province, and the density of competition in the sector have positive impact on the probability of survival of the new-born firms within the incubator. Entrepreneurs whose only source of income comes from the young firm, who has college diploma, who has brand ownership at the firm, who experience a macroeconomic crisis are more likely to fail. References Aernoudt, R. (2004). Incubators: Tool for Entrepreneurship?. mall Business conomics, 23, 127-35. Başar, E. (2006, May). rantılı lmayan Hazard Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Paper presented at 5. İstatistik Günleri Sempozyumu, Antalya, pp.111-16. Bellera, C.A., MacGrogan, G., Debled, M., De Lara, C.T., Brouste, V., & Mathoulin-Pélissier, S. (2010). Variables with time-varying effects and the Cox model: Some statistical concepts illustrated with a prognostic factor study in breast cancer. BM Medical esearch Methodology, 10:20. Conclusions Cox proportional hazard model, besides others, rest on proportional hazards assumption that independent variables do not vary with time. When PH assumption is violated, Cox regression estimates become biased. Then, Cox survival estimates can be corrected by including the time-varying effects to the analysis. Identification and calculation of time-dependent effects give the opportunity to obtain some otherwise unseen valuable special time pattern information. In our analysis, initially, the Cox regression was performed by considering that all explanatory variables are constant over time. Then, extended Cox regression models 66 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Cox, D.R., & Oakes, D. (1984). Anaylsis of urvival ata. London: Chapman and Hall. Demirgil, H. (2008). irmaların Hayatta Kalma and Büyüme Performanslarını Belirleyen aktörler: Göller Bölgesi Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Ph.D. Thesis. Department of Economics, Süleyman Demirel University, Isparta. Geiss, K., Meyer, M., Radespiel-Tröger, M., & Gefeller, O. (2009). SURVSOFT—Software for nonparametric survival analysis. omputer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine, lsevier Ireland ., 96, 63–71. Hackett, M., & Dilts, D.M. (2004). A Systematic Review of Business Incubation Research. Journal of echnology ransfer, 29, 55-82. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 67 �Aygul ANAVATAN / Murat KARAOZ Karaöz, M., & Albeni, M., (2011), İş Kuluçkalarında Yeni Kurulan Girişimlerin Hayatta Kalma ve üyüme Performansını Etkileyen Faktörler: KO GE İş Geliştirme Merkezleri (İŞGEM) Üzerine ir Araştırma. The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK). (Issue Brief No. 109K139). Kleinbaum, D.G., & Klein, M. (2005). urvival Analysis: A elf- earning ext (2nd Ed.). New York: Springer. Journal of Economic and Social Studies Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey Scheike, T. H. (2004). Time-Varying Effects in Survival Analysis. In: N. Balakrishnan & C.R. Rao. (Ed.), Advances in urvival Analysis, 61-85. Amsterdam: Elsevier North-Holland. Özgür Polat Department of Economics Dicle University, Diyarbakır, Turkey opolat@dicle.edu.tr Sertkaya, D., Ata, N., & özer, M. T. (2005). Yaşam çözümlemesinde zamana bağlı açıklayıcı değişkenli Cox regresyon modeli. Ankara Üniversitesi ıp akültesi Mecmuası, 58, 153-58. Tabatabai, M. A., Bursac, Z., Williams, D. K., & Singh, K. P. (2007). Hypertabastic survival model. Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling, 4:40. Enes E. Uslu Department of Econometrics Ataturk University, Erzurum, Turkey ertad10@hotmail.com Yay, M., Çoker, E., & Uysal, Ö. (2007). Yaşam Analizinde Cox Regresyon Modeli ve Artıkların İncelenmesi, errahpaşa ıp ergisi, 38, 139-45. Hüseyin Kalyoncu Department of International Trade Meliksah University, Kayseri, Turkey hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr Abstr ct This study analyzes unit root properties of total and sectorial energy production and consumption series of urkey. This study is the first to analyze unit root properties of urkish energy production and consumption in detail. The unit root analysis of energy production and consumption are tested by using unit root tests based on M considering without structural break and with one and two structural breaks. According to unit root test without structural break, the unit root hypothesis is rejected only for consumption of natural gas. The unit root hypothesis is rejected for 15 out of the 33 series by the test with one structural break. When unit root test with two structural breaks are conducted, 25 out of the 33 series are found to be stationary around a deterministic trend. The production of hydraulic and the consumption of lignite, electricity, petroleum, coal and electricity, total energy and petroleum consumption in ransportation sector are found to be nonstationary, which indicates that the impacts of innovations on these variables will be permanent. The policy implication of the results suggests that the impacts of shocks on energy consumption and production will be temporary and not have a long memory for most of variables. KEYWO D nergy onsumption, nergy Production, nit oot Analysis, urkey A I LE HI O Y ubmitted: 04 ctober 2012 esubmitted: 24 ecember 2012 Accepted: 25 March 2013 JEL ode: Q43, Q48 Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 69 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2386 Title A name given to the resource Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms 1 Author Author Aygül , Anavatan KARAÖZ, Murat Abstract A summary of the resource. The most widely used model in multivariate analysis of survival data is proportional hazards model proposed by ox. While it is easy to get and interpret the results of the model, the basic assumption of proportional hazards model is that independent variables assumed to remain constant throughout the observation period. Model can give biased results in cases which this assumption is violated. ne of the methods used modelling the hazard ratio in the cases that the proportional hazard assumption is not met is to add a time-dependent variable showing the interaction between the predictor variable and a parametric function of time. In this study, we investigate the factors that affect the survival time of the firms and the time dependence of these factors using ox regression considering time-varying variables. The firm data comes from Business evelopment enters (İŞG M) which is a prominent business incubation center operating in urkey. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed H Social Sciences (General) https://omeka.ibu.edu.ba/files/original/0d0ce3f2e719f3f27ee1960d62fd438c.pdf 08acb57a1597013fa324f6fefcc484f4 PDF Text Text Journal of Economic and Social Studies co Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Fall 2013 Hasan GÖCEN Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Meliksah University, 38280 Kayseri, Turkey hgocen@meliksah.edu.tr CONTENTS Refereed Articles 5 Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Hasan Göcen, Hüseyin Kalyoncu And Muhittin Kaplan, 15 Store Personality: Perceptions Towards Consumer Electronics Chain Stores in Turkey:A Case of University Students Keti Ventur , Ipek K z nco lu, lif stund l and ezan tl d l 39 The Role of Twin Deficit Problem in Sustainable Growth: An Econometric Analysis for Turkey Halil A and Mehmet B KBA 53 Cox Regression Models with Time-Varying Covariates Applied to Survival Success of Young Firms Aygül An t n and Murat K r öz 69 Unit Root Properties of Energy Consumption and Production in Turkey zgür Pol t, nes . slu, Hüseyin K lyoncu, 87 Measuring and Reporting Cost of Quality in a Turkish Manufacturing Company: A Case Study in Electric Industry Hilmi K rl o lu and ülküf Çe , 101 Social Anxiety and Usage of Online Technological Communication Tools among Adolescents Bilal s n, inan oru and Ali leren 115 State as the Source of Wealth: In Ottoman Economic Thought: A different approach to reflections in the aftermath of the global crisis Birol Çet n 131 Impact of Military Expenditure and Economic Growth on External Debt: New Evidence from a Panel of SAARC Countries Khalid n, Iqtidar Ali , Muhammad Mushtaq K n and Mehboob A d, 149 Government Expenditure on Nomadic Education in Nigeria: Implications for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals Akighir avid erf , kpe. I 166 List of Reviewers for This Issue Hüseyin KALYONCU Department of International Trade and Business, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Meliksah University, 38280 Kayseri, Turkey hkalyoncu@meliksah.edu.tr Muhittin KAPLAN Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Meliksah University, 38280 Kayseri, Turkey mkaplan@meliksah.edu.tr Abstr ct The issue of whether public savings offset private savings, and visa vice, KEYWO D has important implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy. This study avings, ffset oefficient, icardian examines long-run relationship between public and private savings rates using , annual urkish data for the period 1975-2005. The result of ngle-Granger quivalence, . cointegration test has shown that there is no long-run relationship between M private and public savings ratios. However, once endogenously determined A I LE HI O Y structural break is allowed, the test results confirm the existence of the ubmitted: 29 Jun 2012 cointegration relationship between private and public savings. conometric esubmitted: 13 estimation of the offset coefficients using both M and yields values ecember 2012 of between -0.11 and -0.82. The results also indicate that the potency of fiscal Accepted: 25 policy significantly reduced with the liberalization of financial markets. ecember2012 JEL odes: 6, H6, 21. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 5 �Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Introduction Methodology and Data The relationship between private and public savings has been central issue in both the theoretical and the empirical literature. The importance of the subject stems from the fact that the effectiveness of fiscal policy is closely related to the responsiveness of private saving to changes in fiscal stance. The relationship between lower public deficits and national savings, however, remains controversial both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, while Keynes (1936) assumes no relationship between private and public savings, Friedman (1957) and Modigliani (1946) develop models showing full substitution between private and public savings. Barro (1974) also introduced the notion of perfect substitutability between private and public savings, which is called Ricardian Equivalence Proposition (REP). Empirical studies on testing the REP estimate the following model: Although there area number of opposing views in the theoretical literature, ultimately, it is an empirical issue to determine the extent to which private savings offset public savings. In the empirical literature, the relationship between private and public savings is investigated for different countries using different econometric methodologies. However, there is no consensus over the size offset coefficient (for a survey see Seater, 1993, Holmes 2006 and Ricciuti 2007). Studies on advanced economies have shown that about half of the change in public savings is offset by an opposite change in private saving (Masson et. al. (1998); Hemming et. al. (2002); Holmes (2006); Mandal and Payne (2007); Seater and Mariano (1985); Leiderman and Razin (1988); Makin and Narayan (2009); De Castro andFernandez (2009)). Although empirical studies are limited in number, offset coefficients were found to be higher for developing countries than for developed countries (Loayza et. al. (2000); Lopez et. al. (2000); De Mello et. al.(2004); Edwards (1996); Masson et. al. 1998; Bulir and Swiston (2009)). This study provides evidence on the validity of the REP by applying powerful econometric techniques of DOLS and FMOLS to time series data of a developing country, Turkey. This paper is organized as follows. Following section sets out the econometric methodology and the data employed in this study. Then, we presented the findings of the study in the empirical section. Last section concludes. (1) where refers to private sector savings as a proportion of GDP, is public sector savings as a ratio to GDP; is the long-run public-private offset (substitution) coefficient is the intercept term and represents usual error term. takes value between 0 (no offset) and -1 (full offset). If , then a decrease in public sector savings is fully offset by an increase in private sector savings. The data employed in our empirical analysis is an annual private and public sector as a percentage of GDP obtained from State Planning Organization (SPO) publications for the years 1975 and 2005. Before estimating the long-run offset function given in equation (1), we first need to investigate the time series properties of the private and public sector saving ratios. Results obtained from unit root tests which are performed to determine whether savings variables have a unit root are presented in Table 1a and Table 1b. While Table 1a presents the results obtained from the ADF, DF-GSL, PP, KPSS and ERS unit root tests, Table 1b shows the Ng-Perron unit root test results. Examination of the Tables show that the null hypothesis of unit root could not be rejected for both private and public sector savings ratios. Table 1.a. Unit Root Test Results Constant -1.432876 -1.367547 -1.454917 0.538798 8.002194 ADF DF-GLS PP KPSS ERS PSR Constant and Trend -1.133958 -1.595668 -1.253357 0.110454 13.83224 Constant -1.473065 -1.384922 -1.479741 9.029962 8.084297 GSR Constant and Trend -2.322051 -1.798766 -1.480789 0.380299 12.96383 Note: ADF, DF-GSL, PP, KPSS and ERS stand for Augmented Dickey-Fuller (1979), Phillips Perron (1988), Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (1992), Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock point optimal (ERS, 1996) unit root tests. 6 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 7 �Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Table 1.b. Ng-Perron Unit Root test Results PSR GSR Asymptotic critical values*: 1% 5% 10% MZa -3.24375 -3.23349 MZt -1.25975 -1.27022 MSB 0.38836 0.39283 MPT 7.53622 7.57531 -13.8000 -8.10000 -5.70000 -2.58000 -1.98000 -1.62000 0.17400 0.23300 0.27500 1.78000 3.17000 4.45000 Note:The number of lags used in Ng-Perron (2001) unit root test is determined by Schwarz Information Criteria(SIC) and turned out to be zero for all specifications. Having established that private and public savings ratios are I(1) variables, we need to test for cointegration between private and public savings to avoid spurious regression. To determine whether there is long-run relationship among these variables, the Engle-Granger (1987) methodology is employed. Testing for cointegration within this methodology involves extracting the residuals from equation (1) and testing for unit root in residuals. The Engle-Granger bivariate cointegration equation and the ADF tests applied to residuals are reported in Table 2. The optimal lag determined by using Schwarz and Akaike information criteria turned out to be zero. The cointegration test statistic is -2.086 with a probability value of 0.251 implying non-rejection of the null of unit root in residuals. Hence, there appears to there is no long-run relationship between private and public sectors savings ratios. Table2. Engle- Granger Cointegration Test Dependent Variable PSR Constant 20.157 (0.531)* ADF test statistics (probability): -2.086 (0.251) Test Critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level GSR -1.009 (0.101)* The cointegration test results obtained from the Johansen and Juselius (1990) method for the model (1) is presented in Table 3. The examination of the table indicates that the null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected by both the maximum eigenvalue and the trace statistic for the model implying that there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings. Table 3. Johansen-Juselius Maximum Likelihood Co integration Tests Trace Test Alternative Null r=0 r≥1 r≤1 r≥2 Statistic 11.946 1.881 Critical Values 15.494 3.841 -3.671 -2.964 -2.621 Furthermore, we employed Johansen multivariate cointegration tests to explore if there is a long run relationship between private and public savings. The number of Journal of Economic and Social Studies Maximum Eigenvalue Test Null Alternative Statistic r=0 r=1 10.065 r≤1 r=2 1.8810 Critical Values 14.264 3.8415 Notes: Asterisks (*) denotes statistical significance at 5%. R stands for the number of cointegrating vectors. However, the cointegration tests have a low power in the presence of a structural break (Gregory and Hansen, 1996). For this reason, we applied Gregory-Hansen cointegration procedure to test whether there is long-run relationship among private and public savings. Specifically, Gregory and Hansen (1996) provide the following three structural break alternatives given by equations (2a-2c): (2a) Note: The values in parenthesis are standard errors. * indicate significant at 1% level. 8 lags used in the underlying the vector auto regression (VAR) model were determined as one for the model according to both the Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (SBC) and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). The corresponding values of SBC and AIC criterion are 9.160 and 8.867 respectively. (2b) (2c) where D represents a dummy variable equal to 0 if is less than or equal to unknown timing of change , otherwise it is equal to one; is time trend; other variables are defined as before. The first co integration regression (2a) is allowed to have a level break, the second model includes level shift and time trend and third model includes regime shift variable. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 9 �Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Given that the structural break point is unknown, Gregory-Hansen procedure involves computing the cointegration test statistics for each possible break and taking the minimum test statistics (ADF test) across all possible break points. That is, the break point is unknown and determined by finding the minimum value for the ADF statistic. The Akaike Information criterion (AIC) is used to determine the number of lags of the change in the residual used in computing the ADF statistic and turned out to be zero for all three models. The results of the GregoryHansen Cointegration procedure for all specifications indicate that the null of no cointegration is rejected with an endogenous break year of 1989. The ADF statistics for equations (2a-2c) are -5.082, -5.34836 and -5.15361 respectively and they are statistically significant at 5 percent level. Table 4.a. FMOLS and DOLS Estimates for Level Shift Model, 1975-2005 Constant GSR D FMOLS 16.129 (1.002)* -0.709 (0.129)* 5.112 DOLS 15.734 (0.682)* -0.741 (0.0967)* 5.377 (1.268)* (0.891)* Note: *, **, *** indicate significance at 1%, 5% and 10% level of significance respectively. The values in parenthesis are standard errors. Table 4.b. FMOLS and DOLS Estimates for Level Shift with trend Model, 1975-2005 Empirical Results Constant Having found evidence of co integration and having established that private and public saving are I(1), the equations (2a-2c) are estimated using the Dynamic OLS (DOLS) proposed by Stock and Watson (1993) and the FMOLS proposed by Phillips and Hansen (1990).In the estimation of equations (2a-2c) with the Dynamic OLS (DOLS), we used two lead and lag terms. The number of lead and lag-terms are determined by using AIC and SBC criterion. The results obtained from FMOLS and DOLS estimators are presented in Tables 4a-4c. Examination of the Tables indicates that while the FMOLS coefficients of offset (betas) ranges between -0.82 and -0.46, the DOLS coefficients of betas ranges from -0.74 to -0.11 yielding a partial offset. For models (2a) and (2b), coefficient on government savings is statistically significant at 1% level. However, the offset coefficient is insignificant in the model (2c). The long-run offset coefficient estimated by FMOLS (DOLS) is -0.458 (-0.11) but they are both statistically insignificant. However, there was statistically significant (at 5% level) change in the slope coefficient, , after 1989 for DOLS estimates. Thus allowing for the slope change in the regime shift specification in the DOLS case, the long-run coefficient is -0.72 (. The structural break dummy, D, is significant across alternative estimates implying the presence of structural break in the data. Taken together, the results show that a structural break did occur in the long-run relationship between private and public saving in 1989. 10 FMOLS 18.263 (1.310)* -0.819 (0.124)* 7.320 (1.503)* -0.193 (0.084)** Journal of Economic and Social Studies GSR D TREND DOLS 13.892 (1.393)* -0.577 (0.148)* 4.693 (1.049)* 0.137 (0.088) Note:Seethenote in Table3.a. Table 4.c. FMOLS and DOLS Estimated for Regime Shift Model, 1975-2005 FMOLS 14.571 (2.977)* -0.458 (0.462) 6.627 (3.032)** -0.268 (0.483) Constant GSR D DGSR DOLS 11.685 (2.263)* -0.109 (0.349) 9.355 (2.318)* -0.613 (0.322)** Note:Seethenote in Table3a. Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 11 �Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Concluding Comments Engle, R. F. & Granger,C. W. J. (1987), Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimating and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276. This study examines the long-run relationship between private and public sector saving ratios using FMOLS and DOLS methodologies. Empirical findings of this study can be summarized as follows: First, there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings unless endogenous structural break in the cointegration relationship is allowed in Turkish case. Secondly, the extent of offset coefficients ranges from -0.82 to -0.11 supporting weak form of Ricardian equivalence. Statistically significant change in the slope coefficient in DOLS case also shows that the substitution (offset) between private and public savings are stronger after 1989. This point is particularly worth mentioning because financial repression in Turkish economy was fully removed at this date. Thirdly, the results of the paper suggest that the effectiveness of fiscal policy implementations by the government has decreased significantly after achieving financial liberalization in 1989.The statistically significant and relatively large coefficient () on regime shift variable can be taken as an evidence for this argument. Friedman, M. (1957), A Theory of the consumption function, Princeton University Press, New Jersey. Gregory, A. W. & Hansen,B. E. (1996), Residual based tests of cointegration in models with regime shifts, Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126. Hemming, R., Kell,M. & Mahfouz,S. (2002),The effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating economic activity, IMF Working Paper, WP/02/208, IMF. Holmes, M. J. (2006), To what extent are public savings offset by private savings in the OECD, Journal of Economics and Finance, 30, 285-296. Johensen, S. &Juselius, K.(1990), Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169210. Keynes, J. M. (1936),The general theory of employment, interest and money, Macmillan, Houndsmills, UK. Kwiatkowski, D. P. C. B. Phillips, Schmidt,P. &Shin,Y. (1992), Testingthenullhypothesis of stationaryagainstthealternative of a unitroot, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178. Leiderman, L.,&Razin,A. (1988), TestingRicardianneutralitywith an intertemporalstochastic model, Journal of Money, CreditandBanking, 20, 1-21. References Loayza, N., Schmidt-Hebbel,K., &Serven,L. (2000), What drives private saving across the World?,Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 165-181. Makin, A. J. &Narayan,P. K. (2011), How potent is fiscalpolicy inAustralia?, EconomicPapers, 30, 377-385. Lopez, J. H., Schmidt-Hebbel, K. &Serven,L. (2000), How effective is fiscal policy in raising national saving?,Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 226-238. Barro, R. (1974), Are government bonds net wealth?,Journal of Political Economy, 81, 1095-1117. Mandal, A. & Payne,J. E. (2007), The long-run relationship between private and public savings: an empirical note, Journal of Economics and Finance, 31, 99-103. Bulir, A. &Swiston,A. (2009),Emergingmarket countriesdon’tbelieve in fiscalstimuli: should web blameRicardo?,CzechJournal of Economicsand Finance, 59, 153-164. De Castro, F. &Fernandez,J. L. (2009), Therelationshipbetweenpublicandprivatesaving in Spain: DoesRicardianEquivalenceHold, Banco De EspanaWorkingPaperSeriesno: 0923. De Mello, L.,KongsrudP. M.,&Price,R. (2004), Savingbehaviourandtheeffectiveness of fiscalpolicy, EconomicsDepartmentWorkingPaper, no. 397. Dickey, D. A. &Fuller,W. A. (1979), Distribution of theestimatorsforautoregressive time serieswith a unitroot, Journal of theAmerican Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. Edwards, S. (1996),Why are Latin American’s savings so low? An international comparative analysis, Journal of Development Economics, 51, 5-44. Masson, P.,Bayoumi,T. &Samici,H. (1998), International evidence on the determinants of private saving, World Bank Economic Review, 12, 483-501. Modigliani, F. (1946),Life cycle, individual thrift and the wealth of nations, American Economic Review, 76, 297-313. Ng, S. &Perron,P. (2001), Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power, Econometrica, 69(9), 1519-1554. Phillips, P. C. B. & Hansen,E. E. (1990), Statistical inference in instrumental variable regression with I(1) processes, Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125. Phillips P. C. B. &Perron,P. (1988), Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrica, 75, 335-346. Elliot, G., Rothenberg,T. J. & Stock,J. H. (1996), Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root, Econometrica, 64, 813-836. Ricciutti, R. (2003), Assessing Ricardian Equivalence, Journal of Economic Surveys, 17, 55-78. 12 Volume 3 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Number 2 Fall 2013 13 �Journal of Economic and Social Studies Hasan GÖCEN / Hüseyin KALYONCU / Muhittin KAPLAN Seater, J. (1993), Ricardian Equivalence, Journal of conomic iterature, 31, 142-90. Seater, J.&Mariano,R. S. (1985), New tests of the life cycleandtaxdiscountinghypotheses, Journal of Monetary conomics, 15, 195-215. Stock, J. H. & Watson,M. W. (1993),A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems, conometrica, 6, 783-820. Store Personality: Perceptions Towards Consumer Electronics Chain Stores in Turkey A Case of University Students Keti VENTURA Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration keti.ventura@ege.edu.tr Ipek KAZANCOGLU Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration ipek.kazanoglu@ege.edu.tr Elif USTUNDAGLI Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration elif.ustundagli@ege.edu.tr Rezan TATLIDIL Ege University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Business Administration rezan.tatlidil@ege.edu.tr Abstr ct The purpose of this study is to identify, develop and compare the deter- KEYWO D minants of store personality of the most preferred consumer electronics tore personality, onsumer chain stores, as perceived by young consumers in urkey. A question- lectronic hain tores, onfirmatory actor Analysis, naire survey including a 22-item store personality scale was conducted urkey among 855 students using a convenience sampling method. xploratory factor analysis ( A) and confirmatory factor analysis ( A) A I LE HI O Y was performed. indings suggest that greater accuracy of information is ubmitted: 31 July 2012 needed in the purchasing decision related to high involvement products esubmitted: 05 ovember 2012 such as consumer electronics. Also it was found that younger consumers esubmitted: 18 ecember 2012 prefer reliable stores that give accurate information, value for money, Accepted: 21 ecember 2012 and provides price-quality fit. This study addresses the neglected area of store personality development and validation for consumer electronics relates through an understanding of young consumers perceptions towards store personality determinants. JEL odes: M31, M39 14 Journal of Economic and Social Studies Volume 3 Number 2 Fall 2013 15 � Dublin Core The Dublin Core metadata element set is common to all Omeka records, including items, files, and collections. For more information see, http://dublincore.org/documents/dces/. Extent The size or duration of the resource. 2383 Title A name given to the resource Do Private Savings Offset Public Savings in Turkey? Author Author GÖCEN, Hasan KALYONCU, Hüseyin KAPLAN, Muhittin Abstract A summary of the resource. The issue of whether public savings offset private savings, and visa vice, has important implications for the effectiveness of fiscal policy. This study examines long-run relationship between public and private savings rates using annual urkish data for the period 1975-2005. The result of ngle-Granger cointegration test has shown that there is no long-run relationship between private and public savings ratios. However, once endogenously determined structural break is allowed, the test results confirm the existence of the cointegration relationship between private and public savings. conometric estimation of the offset coefficients using both M and yields values of between -0.11 and -0.82. The results also indicate that the potency of fiscal policy significantly reduced with the liberalization of financial markets. Publisher An entity responsible for making the resource available International Burch University Date A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource 2013-12-19 Keywords Keywords. Article PeerReviewed HB Economic Theory